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Sample records for risk evaluation euroscore

  1. Comparison of original EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk models in a Turkish cardiac surgical cohort†

    PubMed Central

    Kunt, Ayse Gul; Kurtcephe, Murat; Hidiroglu, Mete; Cetin, Levent; Kucuker, Aslihan; Bakuy, Vedat; Ruchan Akar, Ahmet; Sener, Erol

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population. METHODS The current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power. RESULTS The mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4–10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2–6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3–8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6–1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4–6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60–0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60–0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59–0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62–0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51–0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. PMID:23403767

  2. Validation of EuroSCORE II on a single-centre 3800 patient cohort

    PubMed Central

    Carnero-Alcázar, Manuel; Silva Guisasola, Jacobo Alberto; Reguillo Lacruz, Fernando José; Maroto Castellanos, Luis Carlos; Cobiella Carnicer, Javier; Villagrán Medinilla, Enrique; Tejerina Sánchez, Teresa; Rodríguez Hernández, José Enrique

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To compare and validate the new European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II with EuroSCORE at our institution. METHODS The logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II were calculated on the entire patient cohort undergoing major cardiac surgery at our centre between January 2005 and December 2010. The goodness of fit was compared by means of the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) chi-squared test and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves of both scales applied to the same sample of patients. These analyses were repeated and stratified by the type of surgery. RESULTS Mortality of 5.66% was observed, with estimated mortalities according to logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II of 9 and 4.46%, respectively. The AUC for EuroSCORE (0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79–0.85) was lower than that for EuroSCORE II (0.85, 95% CI 0.83–0.87) without the differences being statistically significant (P = 0.056). Both scales showed a good discriminative capacity for all the pathologies subgroups. The two scales showed poor calibration in the sample: EuroSCORE (χ2 = 39.3, PHL < 0.001) and EuroSCORE II (χ2 = 86.69, PHL < 0.001). The calibration of EuroSCORE was poor in the groups of patients undergoing coronary (PHL = 0.01), valve (PHL = 0.01) and combined coronary valve surgery (PHL = 0.012); and that of EuroSCORE II in the group of coronary (PHL = 0.001) and valve surgery (PHL < 0.001) patients. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II demonstrated good discriminative capacity and poor calibration in the patients undergoing major cardiac surgery at our centre. PMID:23178391

  3. Mortality from isolated coronary bypass surgery: a comparison of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the EuroSCORE risk prediction algorithms.

    PubMed

    Qadir, Irfan; Salick, Muhammad Musa; Perveen, Shazia; Sharif, Hasanat

    2012-03-01

    We compared the performances of the additive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, EuroSCORE (AES) and logistic EuroSCORE (LES) with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' risk prediction algorithm in terms of discrimination and calibration in predicting mortality in patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) at a single institution in Pakistan. Both models were applied to 380 patients, operated upon at the Aga Khan University Hospital from August 2009 to July 2010. The actual mortality was 2.89%. The mean AES of all patients was 4.36 ± 3.58%, the mean LES was 5.96 ± 9.18% and the mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons' (STS) score was 2.30 ± 4.16%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test gave a P-value of 0.801 for AES, 0.699 for LES and 0.981 for STS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.866 for AES, 0.842 for LES and 0.899 for STS. STS outperformed AES and LES both in terms of calibration and discrimination. STS, however, underestimated mortality in the top 20% of patients having an STS score >2.88, thus overall STS estimates were lower than actual mortality. We conclude that STS is a more accurate model for risk assessment as compared to additive and logistic EuroSCORE models in the Pakistani population. PMID:22184465

  4. Predictive Power and Implication of EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS Score for Isolated Repeated Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Jessen, Sören; Neumann, Konrad; Konertz, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the predictive power of the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score for isolated redo aortic valve replacement. Materials and Methods: 78 consecutive patients underwent the aforementioned procedure mainly with a stentless valve prosthesis at our institution. Observed mortality was compared to the predicted mortality, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were calculated and the area under the curve (AUC) analyzed. Result: Observed mortality was 11.5%. EuroSCORE and EuroScore II predicted a mortality of 28.2 ± 21.6% (p <0.001) and 10.2 ± 11.8% (p = 0.75), respectively. AUC of the EuroSCORE was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62–0.83), p = 0.009 and of the EuroSCORE II 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76–0.93), p <0.0001. Optimal Youden index of the EuroSCORE II was 0.59 refering to a predicted mortality of 9.9% (sensitivity: 77.8% and specificity: 81.2%). Predicted mortality of STS score was 17.8 ± 10.6% (p = 0.08) and AUC was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.53–0.75), p = 0.06. Conclusion: EuroSCORE II calculation was not only superior to EuroSCORE and STS score but led to a very realistic mortality prediction for this special procedure at our institution. A EuroSCORE II greater 10 should encourage to consider an alternative treatment. PMID:25740446

  5. Risk and Outcome of Aortic Valve Surgery in the Transcatheter Valve Era: The Gender Aspect

    PubMed Central

    Christ, Torsten; Leonards, Christopher O.; Dohmen, Pascal M.; Konertz, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: In 2009, a transcatheter valve intervention program was introduced at our centre. The aim of this single-centre retrospective study was to evaluate gender-specific risk profiles and outcome of patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement before and after 2009. Methods: We assessed the preoperative logistic EuroSCORE and age, gender and 30-day-survival of 357 patients diagnosed with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis that underwent primary isolated surgical aortic valve replacement in 2007–2008 (group I, n = 191, 47% female) and 2010–2011 (group II, n = 166, 40% female). Survival follow up data was 100% complete. Results: Women in group II were significantly younger (71.6 ± 9.0 years; p = 0.004) and showed significantly lower risk profiles (logistic EuroSCORE: 9.6 ± 9.9%; p = 0.04) than women in group I (age: 75.6 ± 8.5 years, logistic EuroSCORE: 13.9 ± 15.9). Men’s age and risk profiles remained similar in both groups. Observed survival at 30 days was 98.8% in group II and 95.8% in group I which represented a statistical trend (p = 0.09). Female survival in group I was 92.2% and significantly worse as compared to 99% male survival in group I (p = 0.03). This significant difference in gender ratio of mortality was not detected in group II (female survival 97%, male survival 100%; p = 0.2). Being female was a significant risk factor in group I (odds ratio; 8.4; p = 0.03) but not in group II any longer (odds ratio: 1.0; p = 0.2). Conclusions: The possibility of transcatheter aortic valve replacement for therapy of aortic stenosis has led to a lower risk and improved outcome of surgical aortic valve replacement especially for women. PMID:26004109

  6. Software design for professional risk evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionescu, V.; Calea, G.; Amza, G.; Iacobescu, G.; Nitoi, D.; Dimitrescu, A.

    2016-08-01

    Professional risk evaluation represents a complex activity involving each economic operator, with important repercussion upon health and security in work. Article represents an innovative study method, regarding professional risk analyze in which cumulative working posts are evaluated. Work presents a new software that helps in putting together all the working positions from a complex organizational system and analyzing them in order to evaluate the possible risks. Using this software, a multiple analysis can be done like: risk estimation, risk evaluation, estimation of residual risks and finally searching of risk reduction measures.

  7. Risk assessment technique for evaluating research laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Bolander, T.W.; Meale, B.M.; Eide, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    A technique has been developed to evaluate research laboratories according to risk, where risk is defined as the product of frequency and consequence. This technique was used to evaluate several laboratories at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction of the Department of Energy, Idaho Field Office to assist in the risk management of the Science and Technology Department laboratories. With this technique, laboratories can be compared according to risk, and management can use the results to make cost effective decisions associated with the operation of the facility.

  8. Risk assessment technique for evaluating research laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Bolander, T.W.; Meale, B.M.; Eide, S.A.

    1992-09-01

    A technique has been developed to evaluate research laboratories according to risk, where risk is defined as the product of frequency and consequence. This technique was used to evaluate several laboratories at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction of the Department of Energy, Idaho Field Office to assist in the risk management of the Science and Technology Department laboratories. With this technique, laboratories can be compared according to risk, and management can use the results to make cost effective decisions associated with the operation of the facility.

  9. Evaluation of protective action risks

    SciTech Connect

    Witzig, W.F.; Shillenn, J.K.

    1987-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine how the risks of the protective action of evacuation compare with the radiological risks from a radiation release if no protective actions are taken. Evacuation risks of death and injury have been determined by identifying from newspapers and other sources 902 possible evacuation events which occurred in the US during the period January 1, 1973 through April 30, 1986. A survey form was developed to determine evacuation risks and other information relating to the evacuation events and sent to local emergency management personnel located in the vicinity of 783 events. There were 310 completed surveys received and the data summarized. This study found that the key factors for a successful evacuation included an emergency plan, good communications and coordination, practice drills, and defined authority. Few successful evacuations used the emergency broadcasting system or warning sirens to communicate the need to evacuate. Reports of panic and traffic jams during an evacuation were very few. Traffic jams occurring during reentry were more likely than during the evacuation exodus. A summary of potential societal consequences of evacuation is included in this study. 5 refs., 9 figs., 20 tabs.

  10. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    SciTech Connect

    Martorell, S.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-07-20

    In nuclear power plants surveillance tests are required to detect failures in standby safety system components as a means of assuring their availability in case of an accident. However, the performance of surveillance tests at power may have adverse impact on safety as evidenced by the operating experience of the plants. The risk associated with a test includes two different aspects: (1) a positive aspect, i.e., risk contribution detected by the test, that results from the detection of failures which occur between tests and are detected by the test, and (2) a negative aspect, i.e., risk contribution caused by the test, that includes failures and degradations which are caused by the test or are related to the performance of the test. In terms of the two different risk contributions, the risk effectiveness of a test can be simply defined as follows: a test is risk effective if the risk contribution detected by the test is greater than the risk contribution caused by the test; otherwise it is risk ineffective. The methodology presentation will focus on two important kinds of negative test risk impacts, that is, the risk impacts of test-caused transients and equipment wear-out. The evaluation results of the risk effectiveness of the test will be presented in the full paper along with the risk assessment methodology and the insights from the sensitivity analysis. These constitute the core of the NUREG/CR-5775.

  11. [Cardiovascular risk and cardiometabolic risk: an epidemiological evaluation].

    PubMed

    Vanuzzo, Diego; Pilotto, Lorenza; Mirolo, Renata; Pirelli, Salvatore

    2008-04-01

    cardiometabolic risk factors were considered those "closely related to diabetes and cardiovascular disease: fasting/postprandial hyperglycemia, overweight/obesity, elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and dyslipidemia". The association among the cardiometabolic risk factors has been known for a long time, and much of their etiology has been ascribed to insulin resistance. Also, the fact that these "metabolic" abnormalities can cluster in many individuals gave rise to the term "metabolic syndrome", a construct embraced by many organizations but questioned by other authors. From an epidemiological point of view the metabolic syndrome seems to increase modestly the cardiovascular risk, whereas in non-diabetic individuals it predicts diabetes much more efficiently. Many studies have compared the performance of the classical cardiovascular evaluation tools (the Framingham risk score, the SCORE charts, the Progetto CUORE score) and metabolic syndrome in cardiovascular disease prediction. Usually in people at high risk the presence of the metabolic syndrome does not improve the risk, whereas in people at lower risk its presence increases significantly the chances of cardiovascular disease. Many studies have shown that positive lifestyle interventions markedly reduce the rate of progression of type 2 diabetes. Also some drugs were tested for diabetes prevention, usually in people with impaired glucose tolerance. Oral diabetes drugs considered together (acarbose, metformin, flumamine, glipizide, phenformin) were less effective than lifestyle interventions, with different results among the drugs; the antiobesity drug orlistat gave similar results to lifestyle interventions. In Italy an appropriate approach to cardiovascular disease and diabetes prevention may be that of first evaluating the global cardiovascular risk using the charts or the score software of the Progetto CUORE, because high-risk subjects (> or =20%) must be treated aggressively independently of the presence of

  12. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    SciTech Connect

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  13. Evaluating Alternative Risk Adjusters for Medicare.

    PubMed

    Pope, Gregory C; Adamache, Killard W; Walsh, Edith G; Khandker, Rezaul K

    1998-01-01

    In this study the authors use 3 years of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) to evaluate alternative demographic, survey, and claims-based risk adjusters for Medicare capitation payment. The survey health-status models have three to four times the predictive power of the demographic models. The risk-adjustment model derived from claims diagnoses has 75-percent greater predictive power than a comprehensive survey model. No single model predicts average expenditures well for all beneficiary subgroups of interest, suggesting a combined model may be appropriate. More data are needed to obtain stable estimates of model parameters. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative risk adjusters are discussed.

  14. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    PubMed

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  15. Evaluation of health risks for contaminated aquifers.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T; Jacobs, T L; Medina, M A

    1997-01-01

    This review focuses on progress in the development of transport models for heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, the use of predicted contaminant concentrations in groundwater for risk assessment for heterogeneous human populations, and the evaluation of aquifer remediation technologies. Major limitations and areas for continuing research for all methods presented in this review are identified. Images Figure 2. PMID:9114282

  16. Evaluation of health risks for contaminated aquifers.

    PubMed

    Piver, W T; Jacobs, T L; Medina, M A

    1997-02-01

    This review focuses on progress in the development of transport models for heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, the use of predicted contaminant concentrations in groundwater for risk assessment for heterogeneous human populations, and the evaluation of aquifer remediation technologies. Major limitations and areas for continuing research for all methods presented in this review are identified.

  17. Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

  18. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  19. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-02-03

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions.

  20. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. PMID:26739372

  1. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction.

  2. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in school children.

    PubMed

    Sporisević, Lutvo; Krzelj, Vjekoslav; Bajraktarević, Adnan; Jahić, Elmedina

    2009-08-01

    Atherosclerosis is a pathological condition that begins in early childhood, but clinically the disease manifests in older age. The aim of work was to determine frequency of atherosclerosis risk factors in healthy school children. Cross-sectional study included 214 children in mean age 10,99+/-2,52 years, within range 7 to 15 years. Patients body mass index, blood pressure, lipid status, dietary habits, physical activity and sedentary habits have been evaluated. Cardiovascular risk factors are significantly present in children (P<0,05) i.e. one cardiovascular risk factor is present in 47/214 (21,96%) children, two risk factors had 25/214 (11,68%) children, while 17/214 (7,94%) children had three or more cardiovascular risk factors. Obesity was present in 20/214 (9,34%) children, while overweight was present in 23/214 (10,74%) children. Hypertension was present in 10/214 (4,67%) children, and it was significantly present (p<0,05) in obese and overweight children. Total cholesterol was increased in 17/214 (7,94%) children, LDL-cholesterol was increased in 11/214 (5,14%) [corrected], increased triglycerides had 4/214 (1,86%) children, while decreased HDL-cholesterol was found in (3/214, 1,40%) children. Unhealthy dietary habits were present in 45/214 (21,02%) children, 42/214 (19,62%) children is physically inactive, while sedentary habits were shown in 39/214 (18,22%) children. Research shows that a large number within study group has one or more cardiovascular risk factors that can lead to premature atherosclerosis. Using massive screening of cardiovascular risk factors, along with adequate physical activity, healthy dietary habits, reduced sedentary habits, doctors and teacher's education, parents and children can reduce premature clinical sequels in atherosclerotic process.

  3. Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks.

    PubMed

    Tonn, Bruce; Stiefel, Dorian

    2013-10-01

    Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods. PMID:23551083

  4. A comparison of off-pump and on-pump coronary bypass surgery in patients with low EuroSCORE

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The aim of the present study was to evaluate and compare postoperative short-term, mid-term and long-term outcomes of coronary artery bypass surgery performed with or without cardiopulmonary bypass in patients with a low European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score. Methods A retrospective analysis of 478 consecutive low risk patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery between January 2002 and December 2007 was performed. Of these patients, 83 cases had undergone on-pump and 395 cases had undergone off-pump coronary bypass surgery. The patients were assessed in terms peri-operative complications, survival, mortality due to cardiac events, need for rehospitalization and repeated coronary revascularization. Results There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of preoperative characteristics, except for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The number of distal anastomosis per patient was significantly lower in the off-pump group than in the on-pump group (2.66 ± 0.74 vs. 3.21 ± 0.85, p < 0.001). Early mortality rates were similar in both groups (1.01% for the off-pump group and 1.2% for the on-pump group, p = 0.687). Neurological complications were significantly lower in the off-pump group than in the on-pump group (1.1% vs. 6%, p = 0.01). The mean follow-up period was 80 ± 19.1 months (range, 3–112 months). The need for revascularization during long-term follow-up was 10.1% in the off-pump group and 7.2% in the on-pump group (p = 0.416). The 5-year survival was 95.2 ± 1.1% and 95.5 ± 2.7% in the off-pump and on-pump groups, respectively (p = 0.8), whereas the 7-year survival was 91.9 ± 1.6% and 84.7 ± 6.8% in the off-pump and on-pump groups, respectively (p = 0.274). The 5-year revascularization-free period was 89.5 ± 1.6% and 89.7 ± 3.5% in the off-pump and on-pump groups, respectively (p = 0.785). The 7-year revascularization-free period

  5. Veterinary drugs: disposition, biotransformation and risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Fink-Gremmels, J; van Miert, A S

    1994-12-01

    Veterinary drugs may only be produced, distributed and administered after being licensed. This implies that, prior to marketing, a critical evaluation of the pharmaceutical quality, the clinical efficacy and the over-all pharmacological and toxicological properties of the active substances will be performed by national and/or supranational authorities. However, despite a sophisticated legal (harmonized) framework, a number of factors involved in residue formation and safety assessment remain unpredictable or dependant on the current 'state of the art' in the understanding of molecular pharmacology and toxicology. For example, drug disposition and residue formation in the target animal species may be influenced by a broad variety of physiological parameters including age, sex and diet, as well as by pathological conditions especially the acute phase response to infection. These factors affect both drug disposition and metabolite formation. Furthermore, current thinking in toxicological risk assessment is influenced by recent developments in molecular toxicology and thus by an increased but still incomplete understanding of the interaction of a toxic compound with the living organism. General recognized principles in the evaluation of potential toxicants are applied in the recommendation of withdrawal times and the establishment of maximum residue limits (MRL values). Apart from toxicological-based assessment, increasing awareness is directed to other than toxicological responses, especially the potential risk of effects of antimicrobial residues on human gastrointestinal microflora. Thus, the methodology of risk assessment is discussed in the context of the recently established legal framework within the European Union.

  6. [Thermal comfort in perioperatory risk's evaluation].

    PubMed

    Masia, M D; Dettori, M; Liperi, G; Deriu, G M; Posadino, S; Maida, G; Mura, I

    2009-01-01

    Studies till now conducted about operating rooms' microclimate have been focused mainly on operators' thermal comfort, considering that uneasiness conditions may compromise their working performance. In last years, nevertheless, the anesthesiologic community recalled attention on patients' risks determined by perioperatory variations of normothermia, underlining the necessity of orientating studies to individuate microclimate characteristics act to guarantee thermal comfort of the patient too. Looking at these considerations, a study has been conducted in the operating rooms of the hospital-university Firm and the n.1 USL of Sassari, finalized, on one hand, to determinate microclimate characteristics of the operating blocks and to evaluate operators' and patients' thermal comfort, on the other to individuate, through a software simulation, microclimate conditions that ensure contemporarily thermal comfort for both the categories. Results confirm the existence of a thermal "gap" among operators and patients, these last constantly submitted to "cold-stress", sometimes very accentuated. So, we underline microclimate's importance in operating rooms, because there are particular situations that can condition perioperatory risks. Moreover it can be useful to integrate risk's classes of the American Society of Anestesiology (ASA) with a score attributed to the PMV/PPD variation, reaching more real operatory risk indicators. PMID:19798902

  7. Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) - summary

    SciTech Connect

    Kjeldgaard, E.A.; Saloio, J.H.; Vannoni, M.G.

    1997-03-01

    Nuclear weapons have been produced in the US since the early 1950s by a network of contractor-operated Department of Energy (DOE) facilities collectively known as the Nuclear Weapon Complex (NWC). Recognizing that the failure of an essential process might stop weapon production for a substantial period of time, the DOE Albuquerque Operations office initiated the Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to assess quantitatively the potential for serious disruptions in the NWC weapon production process. PREP was conducted from 1984-89. This document is an unclassified summary of the effort.

  8. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  9. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  10. Evaluation of residue drum storage safety risks

    SciTech Connect

    Conner, W.V.

    1994-06-17

    A study was conducted to determine if any potential safety problems exist in the residue drum backlog at the Rocky Flats Plant. Plutonium residues stored in 55-gallon drums were packaged for short-term storage until the residues could be processed for plutonium recovery. These residues have now been determined by the Department of Energy to be waste materials, and the residues will remain in storage until plans for disposal of the material can be developed. The packaging configurations which were safe for short-term storage may not be safe for long-term storage. Interviews with Rocky Flats personnel involved with packaging the residues reveal that more than one packaging configuration was used for some of the residues. A tabulation of packaging configurations was developed based on the information obtained from the interviews. A number of potential safety problems were identified during this study, including hydrogen generation from some residues and residue packaging materials, contamination containment loss, metal residue packaging container corrosion, and pyrophoric plutonium compound formation. Risk factors were developed for evaluating the risk potential of the various residue categories, and the residues in storage at Rocky Flats were ranked by risk potential. Preliminary drum head space gas sampling studies have demonstrated the potential for formation of flammable hydrogen-oxygen mixtures in some residue drums.

  11. Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program

    PubMed Central

    Andrade, Susan E.; Davis, Robert L.; Cheetham, T. Craig; Cooper, William O.; Li, De-Kun; Amini, Thushi; Beaton, Sarah J.; Dublin, Sascha; Hammad, Tarek A.; Pawloski, Pamala A.; Raebel, Marsha A.; Smith, David H.; Staffa, Judy A.; Toh, Sengwee; Dashevsky, Inna; Haffenreffer, Katherine; Lane, Kimberly; Platt, Richard; Scott, Pamela E.

    2011-01-01

    To describe a program to study medication safety in pregnancy, the Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program (MEPREP). MEPREP is a multi-site collaborative research program developed to enable the conduct of studies of medication use and outcomes in pregnancy. Collaborators include the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and researchers at the HMO Research Network, Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California, and Vanderbilt University. Datasets have been created at each site linking healthcare data for women delivering an infant between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2008 and infants born to these women. Standardized data files include maternal and infant characteristics, medication use, and medical care at 11 health plans within 9 states; birth certificate data were obtained from the state departments of public health. MEPREP currently involves more than 20 medication safety researchers and includes data for 1,221,156 children delivered to 933,917 mothers. Current studies include evaluations of the prevalence and patterns of use of specific medications and a validation study of data elements in the administrative and birth certificate data files. MEPREP can support multiple studies by providing information on a large, ethnically and geographically diverse population. This partnership combines clinical and research expertise and data resources to enable the evaluation of outcomes associated with medication use during pregnancy. PMID:22002179

  12. The Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) Evaluation Collaboration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marek, Lydia I.; Byrne, Richard A. W.; Marczak, Mary S.; Betts, Sherry C.; Mancini, Jay A.

    1999-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service's Children, Youth, and Families at Risk initiative is being assessed by the Evaluation Collaboration's three projects: state-strengthening evaluation project (resources to help states evaluate community programs); NetCon (evaluation of electronic and other networks); and National Youth at Risk Sustainability Study…

  13. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakagemore » simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.« less

  14. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  15. RISK MANAGEMENT EVALUATION FOR CONCENTRATED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...

  16. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  17. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  18. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  19. Risk Evaluation of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

    PubMed Central

    Gioiosa, Laura; Palanza, Paola; vom Saal, Frederick S.

    2015-01-01

    We review here our studies on early exposure to low doses of the estrogenic endocrine-disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA) on behavior and metabolism in CD-1 mice. Mice were exposed in utero from gestation day (GD) 11 to delivery (prenatal exposure) or via maternal milk from birth to postnatal day 7 (postnatal exposure) to 10 µg/kg body weight/d of BPA or no BPA (controls). Bisphenol A exposure resulted in long-term disruption of sexually dimorphic behaviors. Females exposed to BPA pre- and postnatally showed increased anxiety and behavioral profiles similar to control males. We also evaluated metabolic effects in prenatally exposed adult male offspring of dams fed (from GD 9 to 18) with BPA at doses ranging from 5 to 50 000 µg/kg/d. The males showed an age-related significant change in a number of metabolic indexes ranging from food intake to glucose regulation at BPA doses below the no observed adverse effect level (5000 µg/kg/d). Consistent with prior findings, low but not high BPA doses produced significant effects for many outcomes. These findings provide further evidence of the potential risks that developmental exposure to low doses of the endocrine disrupter BPA may pose to human health, with fetuses and infants being highly vulnerable. PMID:26740806

  20. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    PubMed Central

    Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  1. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  2. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  3. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  4. Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Oh, Timothy; Voss, Jamie; Gamble, Greg; Kang, Nicholas; Pemberton, James

    2015-03-01

    Decision making regarding surgery for acute bacterial endocarditis is complex given its heterogeneity and often fatal course. Few studies have investigated the utility of operative risk scores in this setting. Endocarditis-specific scores have recently been developed. We assessed the prognostic utility of contemporary risk scores for mortality and morbidity after endocarditis surgery. Additive and logistic EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II, additive Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Endocarditis Score and additive De Feo-Cotrufo Score were retrospectively calculated for patients undergoing surgery for endocarditis during 2005-2011. Pre-specified primary outcomes were operative mortality, composite morbidity and mortality during follow-up. A total of 146 patients were included with an operative mortality of 6.8 % followed for 4.1 ± 2.4 years. Mean scores were additive EuroSCORE I: 8.0 ± 2.5, logistic EuroSCORE I: 13.2 ± 10.1 %, EuroSCORE II: 9.1 % ± 9.4 %, STS Score: 32.2 ± 13.5 and De Feo-Cotrufo Score: 14.6 ± 9.2. Corresponding areas under curve (AUC) for operative mortality 0.653, 0.645, 0.656, 0.699 and 0.744; for composite morbidity were 0.623, 0.625, 0.720, 0.714 and 0.774; and long-term mortality 0.588, 0.579, 0.686, 0.735 and 0.751. The best tool for post-operative stroke was EuroSCORE II: AUC 0.837; for ventilation >24 h and return to theatre the De Feo-Cotrufo Scores were: AUC 0.821 and 0.712. Pre-operative inotrope or intra-aortic balloon pump treatment, previous coronary bypass grafting and dialysis were independent predictors of operative and long-term mortality. In conclusion, risk models developed specifically from endocarditis surgeries and incorporating endocarditis variables have improved prognostic ability of outcomes, and can play an important role in the decision making towards surgery for endocarditis.

  5. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  6. EVALUATING RISK IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating risk is the understanding of the doses of environment...

  7. Trust-level risk evaluation and risk control guidance in the NHS East of England.

    PubMed

    Card, Alan J; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

    2014-08-01

    In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety.

  8. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Ronald N.; Sargent, Dana; Autrup, Herman; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Brent, Robert L.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Juberg, Daland R.; Laurent, Christian; Luebke, Robert; Olejniczak, Klaus; Portier, Christopher J.; Slikker, William

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a “tool chest” of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of the pediatric population. The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute Subcommittee on Risk Assessment of Sensitive Populations evaluated key references in the area of pediatric risk to identify a spectrum of methodological approaches. These approaches are considered in this article for their potential to be extrapolated for the identification and assessment of other sensitive populations. Recommendations as to future research needs and/or alternate methodological considerations are also made. PMID:19770482

  9. [Vascular risk of oral contraceptive agents: realities and mechanisms. I. Risk evaluation].

    PubMed

    Beaumont, V; Beaumont, J L

    1989-06-17

    The suspected risk of oral contraception was confirmed when large scale epidemiological studies became available. The present work recalls the methodology of a good evaluation, the pros and cons of retrospective and prospective studies, the different appreciations provided by measuring "relative risk" or "attributable risk". In terms of public health, the data obtained supported the necessity to include mortality related to oral contraception in an evaluation of reproductive mortality. This work compares the incidence of vascular complications evaluated through different studies, according to the criteria selected and the type of vascular disease. The advantage of lowering estrogen content is considered. PMID:2525761

  10. Primer for evaluating ecological risk at petroleum release sites.

    PubMed

    Claff, R

    1999-02-01

    Increasingly, risk-based approaches are being used to guide decision making at sites such as service stations and petroleum product terminals, where petroleum products have been inadvertently released to the soil. For example, the API Decision Support System software, DSS, evaluates site human health risk along six different routes of exposure. The American Society for Testing and Materials' Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) standard, ASTM 1739, establishes a tiered framework for evaluating petroleum release sites on the basis of human health risk. Though much of the risk assessment focus has been on human health risk, regulatory agencies recognize that protection of human health may not fully protect the environment; and EPA has developed guidance on identifying ecological resources to be protected through risk-based decision making. Not every service station or petroleum product terminal site warrants a detailed ecological risk assessment. In some cases, a simple preliminary assessment will provide sufficient information for decision making. Accordingly, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is developing a primer for site managers, to assist them in conducting this preliminary assessment, and in deciding whether more detailed ecological risk assessments are warranted. The primer assists the site manager in identifying relevant ecological receptors and habitats, in identifying chemicals and exposure pathways of concern, in developing a conceptual model of the site to guide subsequent actions, and in identifying conditions that may warrant immediate response. PMID:10189585

  11. Primer for evaluating ecological risk at petroleum release sites.

    PubMed

    Claff, R

    1999-02-01

    Increasingly, risk-based approaches are being used to guide decision making at sites such as service stations and petroleum product terminals, where petroleum products have been inadvertently released to the soil. For example, the API Decision Support System software, DSS, evaluates site human health risk along six different routes of exposure. The American Society for Testing and Materials' Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) standard, ASTM 1739, establishes a tiered framework for evaluating petroleum release sites on the basis of human health risk. Though much of the risk assessment focus has been on human health risk, regulatory agencies recognize that protection of human health may not fully protect the environment; and EPA has developed guidance on identifying ecological resources to be protected through risk-based decision making. Not every service station or petroleum product terminal site warrants a detailed ecological risk assessment. In some cases, a simple preliminary assessment will provide sufficient information for decision making. Accordingly, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is developing a primer for site managers, to assist them in conducting this preliminary assessment, and in deciding whether more detailed ecological risk assessments are warranted. The primer assists the site manager in identifying relevant ecological receptors and habitats, in identifying chemicals and exposure pathways of concern, in developing a conceptual model of the site to guide subsequent actions, and in identifying conditions that may warrant immediate response.

  12. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  13. Risk assessment for transboundary rivers using fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rai, Subash P.; Sharma, Nayan; Lohani, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Large scale urbanization has resulted in greater withdrawals of shared waters and this withdrawal has been largely dependent on the hegemony of the riparian's. The last few decades has seen the upward surge of many countries in terms of development as well as hegemony. Existing structures of established water sharing framework typically evaluate only parameters related to historic water use such as historic water demand and supply, contribution to flow, and hydrology. Water conflicts and cooperation is affected by various issues related with development and hegemony. Characterization and quantification of development and hegemony parameters is a very complex process. This paper establishes a novel approach to predict river basins at risk; the approach addresses the issue of water conflict and cooperation within a methodologically more rigorous predictive framework. Fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique is used in this paper to undertake the risk assessment of international transboundary rivers. In this paper the fuzzy domain of risk consists of two fuzzy sets - hegemony and development, indices of which are developed with the help of fuzzy synthetic evaluation techniques. Then the compositional rule-base is framed to ascertain the fuzzy risk. This fuzzy risk can be further used to prioritize all the international river basins which can help in the identification of potentially high risk basins. Risk identification of international river basins is not only scientifically valuable, but also practically highly useful. Identifying those basins that are likely to be particularly prone to conflict or cooperation is of high interest to policy makers.

  14. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness. PMID:26897578

  15. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

  16. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-06-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.

  17. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  18. Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P. ); Morgan, M.G. )

    1994-10-01

    Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.

  19. Risk evaluation of liquefaction on the site of Damien (Haiti)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jean, B. J.; Boisson, D.; Thimus, J.; Schroeder, C.

    2013-12-01

    Under the proposed relocation of all faculties to the campus of Damien, owned by Université d'Etat d'Haïti (UEH), the Unité de Recherche en Géotechnique (URGéo) of the Faculté des Sciences (FDS) of UEH conducted several operations whose objective was to evaluate the risk of liquefaction on this site. This abstract presents a comprehensive and coherent manner the entire processus of assessing the risk of liquefaction. This evaluation was conducted mainly from seismic thechniques, laboratory tests and the response of a one-dimensional soil column. Then, we summarize the results of this evaluation on the various techniques through synthetic maps interpretations of MASW 1D and H/V and also measures on site response to seismic loading from the SPT test applied to evaluation of liquefaction potential.

  20. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  1. [Initial evaluation of febrile neutropenic patients: risk quantification].

    PubMed

    Vázquez, Lourdes; García, José Elías

    2005-12-01

    Infection in immunocompromised hosts represents a serious clinical situation due the high morbidity and mortality it produces and is one of the most frequent complications in patients with cancer. In patients treated with chemotherapy the risk of infection mainly depends on the duration and intensity of neutropenia. It is essential to evaluate which pathogens are involved so that the most appropriate treatment can be selected a priori, as well as to determine the patient's general clinical status so that more or less aggressive treatment can be provided from the beginning, bearing in mind that "low risk" patients can be managed in the home. These questions can be determined by evaluating the patient's clinical history, physical examination, laboratory investigations, and radiological tests. Prompt initiation of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy adapted to the the patient's risk is crucial.

  2. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  3. Developing and Evaluating a Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownson, Ross C.; Mayer, Jeffrey P.; Dusseault, Patricia; Dabney, Sue; Wright, Kathleen; Jackson-Thompson, Jeannette; Malone, Bernard; Goodman, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Describes the development and baseline evaluation data from the Ozark Heart Health Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease risk reduction program in rural Missouri that targeted smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet. Several Ozark counties participated in either intervention or control groups, and researchers conducted surveillance…

  4. [Evaluating occupational health risk in titanium alloys production workers].

    PubMed

    Bazarova, E L

    2007-01-01

    The authors present data on evaluation of personified and non-personified occupational risk of health disorders in titanium alloys production workers, concerning hygienic, medical and biologic, social and psychologic criteria. One-digit assessment of the work conditions is suggested.

  5. Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

  6. A risk methodology to evaluate sensitvity of plant risk to human errors

    SciTech Connect

    Samanta, P.; Wong, S.; Higgins, J.; Haber, S.; Luckas, W.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of sensitivity of plant risk parameters, namely the core melt frequency and the accident sequence frequencies, to the human errors involved in various aspects of nuclear power plant operations. Results are provided using the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment model as an example application of the risk methodology described herein. Sensitivity analyses in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) involve three areas: (1) a determination of the set of input parameters; in this case, various categories of human errors signifying aspects of plant operation, (2) the range over which the input parameters vary, and (3) an assessment of the sensitivity of the plant risk parameters to the input parameters which, in this case, consist of all postulated human errors, or categories of human errors. The methodology presents a categorization scheme where human errors are categorized in terms of types of activity, location, personnel involved, etc., to relate the significance of sensitivity of risk parameters to specific aspects of human performance in the nuclear plant. Ranges of variability for human errors have been developed considering the various known causes of uncertainty in human error probability estimates in PRAs. The sensitivity of the risk parameters are assessed using the event/fault tree methodology of the PRA. The results of the risk-based sensitivity evaluation using the Oconee-3 PRA as an example show the quantitative impact on the plant risk level due to variations in human error probabilities. The relative effects of various human error categories and human error sorts within the categories are also presented to identify and characterize significant human errors for effective risk management in nuclear power plant operational activities. 8 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.

  7. Closure plan evaluation for risk of acid rock drainage

    SciTech Connect

    Dwire, D.L.; Krause, A.J.; Russell, L.J.

    1999-07-01

    Control of acid rock drainage (ARD) is a long-term issue for many mine sites and is often a primary objective of remediation efforts. Some sites continue to require monitoring and management of ARD long after mine operation has ceased and closure is complete. In New Zealand, an innovative and quantitative approach was applied to evaluate the expected risk of ARD after implementation of the closure plan for the Golden Cross Mine. In addition, this future risk was compared to current operating conditions to provide an estimate of the reduction in risk provided by the remediation activities. This approach was useful to both the mine proponent and the regulatory agencies in assessing the effectiveness of the existing closure plan and providing focus on the components of greatest risk. Mine components remaining on site after closure that could potentially generate ARD under various failure scenarios were identified and evaluated. These components included the tailings decant pond, waste rock, stockpiles, open pit mine and water treatment systems. For each component, a series of initiating events and failure scenarios were identified, and a decision tree methodology was utilized to estimate the probability of ARD generation for both current and closure conditions. Due to the implementation of closure plans designed to minimize or eliminate ARD through regarding, construction of engineered covers and water management designs, the risk of ARD generation will be significantly reduced over time.

  8. Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score to Improve Risk Prediction for Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Chouraki, Vincent; Reitz, Christiane; Maury, Fleur; Bis, Joshua C.; Bellenguez, Celine; Yu, Lei; Jakobsdottir, Johanna; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Adams, Hieab H.; Choi, Seung Hoan; Larson, Eric B.; Fitzpatrick, Annette; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; de Jager, Philip L.; Hofman, Albert; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Vardarajan, Badri; Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla; van der Lee, Sven J.; Lopez, Oscar; Dartigues, Jean-François; Berr, Claudine; Amouyel, Philippe; Bennett, David A.; van Duijn, Cornelia; DeStefano, Anita L.; Launer, Lenore J.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Crane, Paul K.; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Mayeux, Richard; Seshadri, Sudha

    2016-01-01

    Effective prevention of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) requires the development of risk prediction tools permitting preclinical intervention. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising common genetic variants associated with AD, evaluated its association with incident AD and assessed its capacity to improve risk prediction over traditional models based on age, sex, education, and APOE ε4. In eight prospective cohorts included in the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP), we derived weighted sum of risk alleles from the 19 top SNPs reported by the IGAP GWAS in participants aged 65 and older without prevalent dementia. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident AD were estimated in Cox models. Improvement in risk prediction was measured by the difference in C-index (Δ–C), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI>0). Overall, 19,687 participants at risk were included, of whom 2,782 developed AD. The GRS was associated with a 17% increase in AD risk (pooled HR = 1.17; 95%CI = [1.13–1.21] per standard deviation increase in GRS; p-value = 2.86 × 10−16). This association was stronger among persons with at least one APOE ε4 allele (HRGRS = 1.24; 95%CI = [1.15–1.34]) than in others (HRGRS = 1.13; 95%CI = [1.08–1.18]; pinteraction = 3.45 × 10−2). Risk prediction after seven years of follow-up showed a small improvement when adding the GRS to age, sex, APOE ε4, and education (Δ–Cindex = 0.0043 [0.0019–0.0067]). Similar patterns were observed for IDI and NRI>0. In conclusion, a risk score incorporating common genetic variation outside the APOE ε4 locus improved AD risk prediction and may facilitate risk stratification for prevention trials. PMID:27340842

  9. Non-HDL Cholesterol and Evaluation of Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), such as coronary heart disease (CHD), is the most frequent cause of death worldwide, especially in developed countries. The latest recommendations of European and American Cardiological Associations emphasize the role of non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) in evaluating the risk of CVD. Although this parameter has a lot of advantages, it is rarely used by general practitioners in lipid profile assessment. The aim of this article is to present the recent informations on the usage of non-HDL-C in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and to compare its diagnostic value to traditional and new CVD risk factors.

  10. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. PMID:26491992

  11. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example.

  12. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  13. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  14. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  15. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  16. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part VIII: Risk, Risk Reduction, Risk Management, and Capacity Building.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Loretti, Alessandro; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P

    2016-06-01

    There is a cascade of risks associated with a hazard evolving into a disaster that consists of the risk that: (1) a hazard will produce an event; (2) an event will cause structural damage; (3) structural damage will create functional damages and needs; (4) needs will create an emergency (require use of the local response capacity); and (5) the needs will overwhelm the local response capacity and result in a disaster (ie, the need for outside assistance). Each step along the continuum/cascade can be characterized by its probability of occurrence and the probability of possible consequences of its occurrence, and each risk is dependent upon the preceding occurrence in the progression from a hazard to a disaster. Risk-reduction measures are interventions (actions) that can be implemented to: (1) decrease the risk that a hazard will manifest as an event; (2) decrease the amounts of structural and functional damages that will result from the event; and/or (3) increase the ability to cope with the damage and respond to the needs that result from an event. Capacity building increases the level of resilience by augmenting the absorbing and/or buffering and/or response capacities of a community-at-risk. Risks for some hazards vary by the context in which they exist and by the Societal System(s) involved. Birnbaum ML , Loretti A , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part VIII: risk, risk reduction, risk management, and capacity building. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):300-308. PMID:27025980

  17. Risk assessment relationships for evaluating effluents from coal industries.

    PubMed

    Cuddihy, R G

    1983-06-01

    Public awareness of the risks associated with traditional coal combustion and newer coal gasification and liquefaction industries is increasing. Assessing the health risks for people exposed to effluents from these industries generally involves four major steps: (1) characterizing the pollutant sources, (2) projecting the release and dispersion of toxic substances in workplaces and in the environment, (3) estimating their uptake by people through inhalation and ingestion and their contact with skin, and (4) evaluating their potential for causing health effects. Pollutants of special concern include toxic gases, carcinogenic organic compounds and trace metals. Relationships between the levels of pollutants released to the environment and the magnitudes of human exposures and methods of formulating exposure-dose-effect relationships for use in human risk assessment are discussed.

  18. Kennedy Space Center Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Program evaluation.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Kristine S; Smallwood, Charles; Tipton, David A

    2008-01-01

    This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values) are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03); diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002); total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001) as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04). Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05); and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001). These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information at the worksite to high risk CVD participants may impact CVD risk factors.

  19. Kennedy Space Center Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Program evaluation.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Kristine S; Smallwood, Charles; Tipton, David A

    2008-01-01

    This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values) are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03); diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002); total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001) as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04). Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05); and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001). These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information at the worksite to high risk CVD participants may impact CVD risk factors. PMID:18561517

  20. Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

    2006-01-01

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

  1. Evaluating risk of ESRD in the urban poor.

    PubMed

    Maziarz, Marlena; Black, R Anthony; Fong, Christine T; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Chertow, Glenn M; Hall, Yoshio N

    2015-06-01

    The capacity of risk prediction to guide management of CKD in underserved health settings is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 28,779 adults with nondialysis-requiring CKD who received health care in two large safety net health systems during 1996-2009 and were followed for ESRD through September of 2011. We developed and evaluated the performance of ESRD risk prediction models using recently proposed criteria designed to inform population health approaches to disease management: proportion of cases followed and proportion that needs to be followed. Overall, 1730 persons progressed to ESRD during follow-up (median follow-up=6.6 years). ESRD risk for time frames up to 5 years was highly concentrated among relatively few individuals. A predictive model using five common variables (age, sex, race, eGFR, and dipstick proteinuria) performed similarly to more complex models incorporating extensive sociodemographic and clinical data. Using this model, 80% of individuals who eventually developed ESRD were among the 5% of cohort members at the highest estimated risk for ESRD at 1 year. Similarly, a program that followed 8% and 13% of individuals at the highest ESRD risk would have included 80% of those who eventually progressed to ESRD at 3 and 5 years, respectively. In this underserved health setting, a simple five-variable model accurately predicts most cases of ESRD that develop within 5 years. Applying risk prediction using a population health approach may improve CKD surveillance and management of vulnerable groups by directing resources to a small subpopulation at highest risk for progressing to ESRD.

  2. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  3. Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

  4. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    PubMed Central

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  5. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  6. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M.; Spinney P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  8. USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF EDC RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In Superfund risk management research, the performance of risk management techniques is typically evaluated by measuring "the concentrations of the chemicals of concern before and after risk management efforts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust und...

  9. Evaluation of data for Sinkhole-development risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upchurch, Sam B.; Littlefield, James R.

    1988-10-01

    Before risk assessments for sinkhole damage and indemnification are developed, a data base must be created to predict the occurrence and distribution of sinkholes. This database must be evaluated in terms of the following questions: (1) are available records of modern sinkhole development adequate, (2) can the distribution of ancient sinks be used for predictive purposes, and (3) at what areal scale must sinkhole occurrences be evaluated for predictive and risk analysis purposes? Twelve 7.5' quadrangles with varying karst development in Hillsborough County, Florida provide insight into these questions. The area includes 179 modern sinks that developed between 1964 and 1985 and 2,303 ancient sinks. The sinks occur in urban, suburban, agricultural, and major forest wetland areas. The number of ancient sinks ranges from 0.1 to 3.2/km2 and averages 1.1/km2 for the entire area. The quadrangle area occupied by ancient sinks ranges from 0.3 to 10.2 percent. The distribution of ancient sinkholes within a quadrangle ranges from 0 to over 25 percent of the land surface. In bare karst areas, the sinks are localized along major lineaments, especially at lineament intersections. Where there is covered karst, ancient sinks may be obscured. Modern sinkholes did not uniformly through time, they ranged from 0 to 29/yr. The regional occurrence rate is 7.6/yr. Most were reported in urban or suburban areas and their locations coincide with the lineament-controlled areas of ancient karst. Moving-average analysis indicates that the distribution of modern sinks is highly localized and ranges from 0 to 1.9/km2. Chi-square tests show that the distribution of ancient sinks in bare karst areas significantly predicts the locations of modern sinks. In areas of covered karst, the locations of ancient sinkholes do not predict modern sinks. It appears that risk-assessment models for sinkhole development can use the distribution of ancient sinks where bare karst is present. In covered karst areas

  10. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures.

  11. Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

    PubMed Central

    Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  12. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  13. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with First Episode Febrile Seizure

    PubMed Central

    Sharawat, Indar Kumar; Singh, Jitender; Singh, Amitabh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Febrile seizure (FS) is the single most common type of seizure seen in children between 6 months to 5 years of age. The purpose of our study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures, which would help in the better management and preventive measures in children at risk for FS episodes. Aim To evaluate the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures in Indian children. Materials and Methods This was a hospital based, case control study. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first FS episode in children. Seventy (70) children between age 6 months to 5 years with their first episode of FS were compared with 70 children with fever but without seizures based on various risk factors. Results The mean age was 24.90±16.11 months in cases and 26.34±16.93 months in controls. Male: female ratio was 2:1. A positive family history was found in 31.4% of first degree and 11.4% in second degree relatives. Mean maximum temperature was 102.06±1.1°F and URI (upper respiratory infection) was most common cause of fever. Antenatal complication was significantly higher in the case group. RBC (Red Blood Cells) indices like lower mean haemoglobin, MCV (Mean Corpuscular Volume), MCH (Mean Corpuscular Haemoglobin concentration) and higher RDW (Red Cell Distribution Width) values were seen in patients. Serum sodium, Serum calcium and random blood sugar values of the cases were significantly lower than those of controls (p<0.05). Conclusion Our study shows that male gender, family history of febrile seizures, peak body temperature, underlying cause of fever, antenatal complications, low serum calcium, sodium, blood sugar and microcytic hypochromic anaemia are the risk factors associated with the occurrence of first episode of febrile seizure and, thus, preventive measures in removing these risk factors could lead to a decrease in incidence of FS. PMID:27437319

  14. Ultrasonography for the evaluation of visceral fat and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Filho, F F; Faria, A N; Kohlmann, O; Ajzen, S; Ribeiro, A B; Zanella, M T; Ferreira, S R

    2001-09-01

    Visceral fat accumulation is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Clinical evaluation of visceral fat is limited because of the lack of reliable and low-cost methods. To assess the correlation between ultrasonography and computed tomography (CT) for the evaluation of visceral fat, 101 obese women, age 50.5+/-7.7 years with a body mass index of 39.2+/-5.4 kg/m(2), were submitted to ultrasonograph and CT scans. Visceral fat measured by ultrasonography, 1 cm above the umbilical knot, showed a high correlation with CT-determined visceral fat (r=0.67, P<0.0001). The ultrasonograph method showed good reproducibility with an intra-observer variation coefficient of <2%. Both ultrasonograph and CT visceral fat values were correlated with fasting insulin (r=0.29 and r=0.27, P<0.01) and plasma glucose 2 hours after oral glucose load (r=0.22 and r=0.34, P<0.05), indicating that ultrasonography is a useful method to evaluate cardiovascular risk. A significant correlation was also found between visceral fat by CT and serum sodium (r=0.18, P<0.05). A ultrasonograph-determined visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio of 2.50 was established as a cutoff value to define patients with abdominal visceral obesity. This value also identified patients with higher levels of plasma glucose, serum insulin and triglycerides and lower levels of HDL-cholesterol, which are metabolic abnormalities characteristic of the metabolic syndrome. Our data demonstrate that ultrasonography is a precise and reliable method for evaluation of visceral fat and identification of patients with adverse metabolic profile. PMID:11566963

  15. Evaluation of risk factor reduction in a European City Network.

    PubMed

    Farrington, Jill L; Faskunger, Johan; Mackiewicz, Karolina

    2015-06-01

    There is a substantial and growing burden of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally. This paper evaluates the preventive efforts of the WHO European Healthy Cities Network during its fifth phase (2009-13), specifically for four behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol abuse, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity). Drawing on case studies, questionnaire responses and other materials, it notes which cities were involved, what worked and did not, the triggers for action, challenges met and lessons learnt. Few cities appeared to have taken comprehensive approaches to NCD prevention across multiple risk factors, or have combined population- and individual-level interventions. Work on healthy food and diet predominantly focused on children in educational or care settings, and few cities appeared to take a comprehensive approach to tackling obesity. Partnerships were a strong feature for all the NCD risk factor work, and were frequently extensive, being most diverse for the Healthy Diet and Food work. There were strong examples of engagement with communities, also involved in co-designing and shaping projects. Equity also featured strongly and there were multiple examples of how attention had been paid to the social determinants of health. There was evidence that cities continue to be significant innovative forces within their countries and drivers of change, and the mutual dependency of the national and local levels was highlighted. Interventions to promote physical activity have shifted focus from specific events and projects to being more integrated with other policy areas and based on intersectoral collaboration. PMID:26069321

  16. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    PubMed

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  17. Re-Evaluating Risk and Exploring Educational Alternatives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Mike; Fraser, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    Risk is positioned as a distinguishing feature of outdoor adventure education (OAE) pedagogy. Risk defines much of what happens in OAE, from participants "taking" risks to instructors "managing" risks. The taken-for-granted centrality of risk continues to have currency due to the thrill and allure of adventurous outdoor activities. This paper…

  18. Evaluation of the cancerogenic risk in oil tankers during refitting.

    PubMed

    Valerio, F; Raffetto, G; Puntoni, R; Vercelli, M

    1982-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) concentrations were measured in particles collected in oil tankers during refitting operations in which oxyacetylene flames were used. High levels of benzopyrene (8.3 +/- 7.2 mg/1000 m3) and nitrogen oxides (from 2 to 20 ppm) were detected. The fraction of collected smoke, soluble in cycloesane, was injected into the peritoneum of Balb/C mice. The frequency of sister chromatid exchange (SCE) induced in bone marrow cells was evaluated. A significant and dose-related increase of SCE was seen, which was comparable to that induced by pure PAH. Based on these results, the presence of other mutagenic substances in addition to benzopyrene was suspected. Chemical and biochemical results confirmed epidemiological evidence of an increased risk of lung and bladder cancer in workers operating inside oil tankers. The authors propose the use of this coordinated approach for an effective primary cancer prevention program in the work place.

  19. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  20. Evaluating Geographically Weighted Regression Models for Environmental Chemical Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Czarnota, Jenna; Wheeler, David C; Gennings, Chris

    2015-01-01

    In the evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many correlated chemicals on disease is often of interest. The relationship between correlated environmental chemicals and health effects is not always constant across a study area, as exposure levels may change spatially due to various environmental factors. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been proposed to model spatially varying effects. However, concerns about collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal (ie, reversal paradox), may limit the applicability of GWR for environmental chemical risk analysis. A penalized version of GWR, the geographically weighted lasso, has been proposed to remediate the collinearity effects in GWR models. Our focus in this study was on assessing through a simulation study the ability of GWR and GWL to correctly identify spatially varying chemical effects for a mixture of correlated chemicals within a study area. Our results showed that GWR suffered from the reversal paradox, while GWL overpenalized the effects for the chemical most strongly related to the outcome. PMID:25983546

  1. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  2. Screening for colorectal cancer: possible improvements by risk assessment evaluation?

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Hans J; Jakobsen, Karen V; Christensen, Ib J; Brünner, Nils

    2011-11-01

    Emerging results indicate that screening improves survival of patients with colorectal cancer. Therefore, screening programs are already implemented or are being considered for implementation in Asia, Europe and North America. At present, a great variety of screening methods are available including colono- and sigmoidoscopy, CT- and MR-colonography, capsule endoscopy, DNA and occult blood in feces, and so on. The pros and cons of the various tests, including economic issues, are debated. Although a plethora of evaluated and validated tests even with high specificities and reasonable sensitivities are available, an international consensus on screening procedures is still not established. The rather limited compliance in present screening procedures is a significant drawback. Furthermore, some of the procedures are costly and, therefore, selection methods for these procedures are needed. Current research into improvements of screening for colorectal cancer includes blood-based biological markers, such as proteins, DNA and RNA in combination with various demographically and clinically parameters into a "risk assessment evaluation" (RAE) test. It is assumed that such a test may lead to higher acceptance among the screening populations, and thereby improve the compliances. Furthermore, the involvement of the media, including social media, may add even more individuals to the screening programs. Implementation of validated RAE and progressively improved screening methods may reform the cost/benefit of screening procedures for colorectal cancer. Therefore, results of present research, validating RAE tests, are awaited with interest. PMID:21854094

  3. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  4. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project.

  5. Post-approval evaluation of effectiveness of risk minimisation: methods, challenges and interpretation.

    PubMed

    Banerjee, Anjan Kumar; Zomerdijk, Inge M; Wooder, Stella; Ingate, Simon; Mayall, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of the effectiveness of drug risk-minimisation measures is mandatory for both risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) in the United States and risk management plans in the European Union (EU-RMPs). Such evaluations aim to assess the impact of risk-minimisation measures on the knowledge, attitudes or behaviours of healthcare professionals or patients, the incidence of safety concerns, and their impact on the overall benefit-risk balance. Although many effectiveness evaluation models and methods are available, regulatory guidance and policy are still evolving. This paper considers evaluation strategies, challenges in evaluating risk minimisation post-authorisation, possible outcome measures and their interpretation, and potential emerging regulatory policy issues. Particular challenges include appropriate data collection, perceived and real burdens of performing evaluation on clinical practice, lack of comparators and benchmarking, and uncertainty about the best outcome measures.

  6. Evaluation of Parkinson disease risk variants as expression-QTLs.

    PubMed

    Latourelle, Jeanne C; Dumitriu, Alexandra; Hadzi, Tiffany C; Beach, Thomas G; Myers, Richard H

    2012-01-01

    The recent Parkinson Disease GWAS Consortium meta-analysis and replication study reports association at several previously confirmed risk loci SNCA, MAPT, GAK/DGKQ, and HLA and identified a novel risk locus at RIT2. To further explore functional consequences of these associations, we investigated modification of gene expression in prefrontal cortex brain samples of pathologically confirmed PD cases (N = 26) and controls (N = 24) by 67 associated SNPs in these 5 loci. Association between the eSNPs and expression was evaluated using a 2-degrees of freedom test of both association and difference in association between cases and controls, adjusted for relevant covariates. SNPs at each of the 5 loci were tested for cis-acting effects on all probes within 250 kb of each locus. Trans-effects of the SNPs on the 39,122 probes passing all QC on the microarray were also examined. From the analysis of cis-acting SNP effects, several SNPs in the MAPT region show significant association to multiple nearby probes, including two strongly correlated probes targeting the gene LOC644246 and the duplicated genes LRRC37A and LRRC37A2, and a third uncorrelated probe targeting the gene DCAKD. Significant cis-associations were also observed between SNPs and two probes targeting genes in the HLA region on chromosome 6. Expanding the association study to examine trans effects revealed an additional 23 SNP-probe associations reaching statistical significance (p<2.8 × 10(-8)) including SNPs from the SNCA, MAPT and RIT2 regions. These findings provide additional context for the interpretation of PD associated SNPs identified in recent GWAS as well as potential insight into the mechanisms underlying the observed SNP associations.

  7. METHODOLOGY FOR THE EVALUATION OF CUMULATIVE EPISODIC EXPOSURE TO CHEMICAL STRESSORS IN AQUATIC RISK ASSESSMENT.

    EPA Science Inventory

    An ecological risk assessment method was developed to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and episodic nature of chemical stressors on aquatic communities. The percent of an ecosystem's species at risk from a designated chemical exposure scenario is generated. In effects assessment...

  8. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    PubMed Central

    Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Sadatmahalleh, Shahideh Jahanian; Akhoond, Mohammad Reza; Talebi, Mehrak

    2016-01-01

    Background Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases) and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group). Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results Gravidity [odds ratio (OR): 0.8, confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01), family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, P<0.001), history of galactorrhea (OR: 2.3, CI: 1.5-3.5, P=0.01), history of pelvic surgery (OR: 1.9, CI: 1.3-2.7, P<0.001), and shorter menstrual cycle length (OR: 0.9, CI: 0.9-0.9, P=0.04) were associated with endometriosis. Duration of natural menstruation and age of menarche were not correlated with subsequent risk of endometriosis (P>0.05). Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many

  9. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  10. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  11. A novel programme to evaluate and communicate 10-year risk of CHD reduces predicted risk and improves patients' modifiable risk factor profile

    PubMed Central

    Benner, J S; Erhardt, L; Flammer, M; Moller, R A; Rajicic, N; Changela, K; Yunis, C; Cherry, S B; Gaciong, Z; Johnson, E S; Sturkenboom, M C J M; García-Puig, J; Girerd, X

    2008-01-01

    Aims We assessed whether a novel programme to evaluate/communicate predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk could lower patients' predicted Framingham CHD risk vs. usual care. Methods The Risk Evaluation and Communication Health Outcomes and Utilization Trial was a prospective, controlled, cluster-randomised trial in nine European countries, among patients at moderate cardiovascular risk. Following baseline assessments, physicians in the intervention group calculated patients' predicted CHD risk and were instructed to advise patients according to a risk evaluation/communication programme. Usual care physicians did not calculate patients' risk and provided usual care only. The primary end-point was Framingham 10-year CHD risk at 6 months with intervention vs. usual care. Results Of 1103 patients across 100 sites, 524 patients receiving intervention, and 461 receiving usual care, were analysed for efficacy. After 6 months, mean predicted risks were 12.5% with intervention, and 13.7% with usual care [odds ratio = 0.896; p = 0.001, adjusted for risk at baseline (17.2% intervention; 16.9% usual care) and other covariates]. The proportion of patients achieving both blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol targets was significantly higher with intervention (25.4%) than usual care (14.1%; p < 0.001), and 29.3% of smokers in the intervention group quit smoking vs. 21.4% of those receiving usual care (p = 0.04). Conclusions A physician-implemented CHD risk evaluation/communication programme improved patients' modifiable risk factor profile, and lowered predicted CHD risk compared with usual care. By combining this strategy with more intensive treatment to reduce residual modifiable risk, we believe that substantial improvements in cardiovascular disease prevention could be achieved in clinical practice. PMID:18691228

  12. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  13. Relative risk site evaluations for Yakima Training Center

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.M.; Whelan, G.

    1996-11-01

    All 20 U.S. Army Yakima Training Center (YTC) sites evaluated were given a `low` relative risk. At Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 22, a `minimum` soils contaminant hazard factor was assigned even though 6,700 mg/kg TPH-diesel was found in surface soil. SWMU 22 is physically located on top of and with the fence surrounding Area of Concern (AOC) 4. Because the diesel is most likely associated with AOC 4, and plans are to clean up AOC 4, any further actions regarding these contaminated soils should be addressed as part of the planned actions for AOC 4. Contaminant hazard factors of `moderate` were assigned to the soil pathway for SWMUs 4 and 7 because dieldrin and arsenic, respectively, were found in surface soil samples at concentrations exceeding standards. A `moderate` contaminant hazard factor was also assigned to the sediment pathway for AOC 1 because arsenic detected in sediments in `Larry`s Swimming Pool` exceeded the standard. All other contaminant hazard factors were rated as minimal. The receptor factor for all sites and pathways was rated `limited,` except for SWMU 54 in which the groundwater receptor factor was rated `potential.` A `potential` rating was assigned to the groundwater pathway at this site to be conservative. The site is located on the south side of the syncline axis where the unconfined aquifer may be present and there are no monitoring wells at the site to confirm or deny the presence of groundwater contamination.

  14. Incidental emotions influence risk preference and outcome evaluation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ding; Gu, Ruolei; Tang, Ping; Yang, Qiwei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2016-10-01

    Incidental emotions, which are irrelevant to the current decision, play a significant role in the decision-making process. In this study, to investigate the influence of incidental emotions on behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses in the process of decision making, participants were required to perform a monetary gambling task. During the selection stage, an emotional picture, which was chosen from the Chinese Affective Picture System and fell into one of three categories: negative, neutral, and positive, was presented between two alternatives (small/large amount of bet). The pictures were provided to induce incidental emotions. ERPs and self-rating emotional experiences to outcome feedback were recorded during the task. Behavioral results showed that positive incidental emotions elicited risk preference, but emotional experiences to outcome feedback were not influenced by incidental emotions. The feedback-related negativity amplitudes were larger in the positive emotion condition than in the negative and neutral emotion conditions for small outcomes (including wins and losses), whereas there was no difference between the three conditions for large outcomes. In addition, the amplitudes of P3 were reduced overall in the negative emotion condition. We suggest that incidental emotions have modulated both the option assessment stage (manifested in behavioral choices) and the outcome evaluation stage (manifested in ERP amplitudes) of decision making unconsciously (indicated by unchanged subjective emotional experiences). The current findings have expanded our understanding of the role of incidental emotion in decision making.

  15. Incidental emotions influence risk preference and outcome evaluation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ding; Gu, Ruolei; Tang, Ping; Yang, Qiwei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2016-10-01

    Incidental emotions, which are irrelevant to the current decision, play a significant role in the decision-making process. In this study, to investigate the influence of incidental emotions on behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses in the process of decision making, participants were required to perform a monetary gambling task. During the selection stage, an emotional picture, which was chosen from the Chinese Affective Picture System and fell into one of three categories: negative, neutral, and positive, was presented between two alternatives (small/large amount of bet). The pictures were provided to induce incidental emotions. ERPs and self-rating emotional experiences to outcome feedback were recorded during the task. Behavioral results showed that positive incidental emotions elicited risk preference, but emotional experiences to outcome feedback were not influenced by incidental emotions. The feedback-related negativity amplitudes were larger in the positive emotion condition than in the negative and neutral emotion conditions for small outcomes (including wins and losses), whereas there was no difference between the three conditions for large outcomes. In addition, the amplitudes of P3 were reduced overall in the negative emotion condition. We suggest that incidental emotions have modulated both the option assessment stage (manifested in behavioral choices) and the outcome evaluation stage (manifested in ERP amplitudes) of decision making unconsciously (indicated by unchanged subjective emotional experiences). The current findings have expanded our understanding of the role of incidental emotion in decision making. PMID:27354122

  16. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    SciTech Connect

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  17. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: Cognitive bases acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earle, T. C.; Lindell, M. K.; Rankin, W. L.; Nealey, S. M.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies; and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: short term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), long term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  18. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Jow, H.N.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D. ); Amos, C.N. ); Helton, J. ); Boyd, G. )

    1992-06-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a point estimate of risk, but to determine the distribution of risk, and to assess the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station. Much of this important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Source Term Panel.

  19. Evaluation of skin cancer risk for lunar and Mars missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M. Y.; George, K. A.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    Methods for estimating the probability of excess incidence of skin cancer from space radiation exposure, must consider the variability of skin doses at specific anatomical areas, and the individual factors that may contribute to risk projection models, including skin pigment, and synergistic effects from combined ionizing radiation and UV exposure. Using the multiplicative risk model for transferring the Japanese survivor data to the US population, epidemiological data for the increased risk for skin locations exposed to combined UV and ionizing radiation, and models of space radiation environments, transport, and anatomical shielding, we estimate the skin cancer risk for future lunar and Mars missions. Our model projects that individual variations in the probability for increased skin cancer risk varies more than 10-fold and that an excess cancer risk greater than 1% could occur for astronauts with light skin and hair color exposed to medium class solar particle events during future lunar base operations, or from galactic cosmic rays on Mars missions.

  20. [Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].

    PubMed

    Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E

    2011-01-01

    The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease).

  1. Balloon aortic valvuloplasty as a bridge-to-decision in high risk patients with aortic stenosis: a new paradigm for the heart team decision making

    PubMed Central

    Saia, Francesco; Moretti, Carolina; Dall'Ara, Gianni; Ciuca, Cristina; Taglieri, Nevio; Berardini, Alessandra; Gallo, Pamela; Cannizzo, Marina; Chiarabelli, Matteo; Ramponi, Niccolò; Taffani, Linda; Bacchi-Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Marrozzini, Cinzia; Rapezzi, Claudio; Marzocchi, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Background Whilst the majority of the patients with severe aortic stenosis can be directly addressed to surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), in some instances additional information may be needed to complete the diagnostic workout. We evaluated the role of balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) as a bridge-to-decision (BTD) in selected high-risk patients. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, the heart team in our Institution required BTD BAV in 202 patients. Very low left ventricular ejection fraction, mitral regurgitation grade ≥ 3, frailty, hemodynamic instability, serious comorbidity, or a combination of these factors were the main drivers for this strategy. We evaluated how BAV influenced the final treatment strategy in the whole patient group and in each specific subgroup. Results Mean logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 23.5% ± 15.3%, age 81 ± 7 years. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%, cerebrovascular accident 1% and overall vascular complications 4% (0.5% major; 3.5% minor). Of the 193 patients with BTD BAV who survived and received a second heart team evaluation, 72.6% were finally deemed eligible for definitive treatment (25.4% for AVR; 47.2% for TAVI): 96.7% of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction recovery; 70.5% of patients with mitral regurgitation reduction; 75.7% of patients who underwent BAV in clinical hemodynamic instability; 69.2% of frail patients and 68% of patients who presented serious comorbidities. Conclusions Balloon aortic valvuloplasty can be considered as bridge-to-decision in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis who cannot be immediate candidates for definitive transcatheter or surgical treatment. PMID:27582761

  2. Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

    PubMed Central

    Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

  3. The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs: Understanding Risk, Protection, and Substance Use among High-Risk Youth. Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Springer, J. Fred; Sambrano, Soledad; Sale, Elizabeth; Kasim, Rafa; Hermann, Jack

    This document summarizes findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs, which identified characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes in 48 prevention programs. Major findings include: as youth age, levels of risk and protection shift considerably,…

  4. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  5. Evaluation of vegetable production management practices to reduce the ecological risk of pesticides

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The ability of agricultural management practices to reduce the ecological risks of pesticides was evaluated. Risk quotients, a mathematical description of the relationship between exposure and toxicity, and hazard ratings, a rank of potential risk of pesticides to aquatic environments, were calculat...

  6. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  7. Evaluation of the Recognizing and Responding to Suicide Risk Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Jodi Michelle; Osteen, Philip; Jones, Andrea; Berman, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Changes in attitudes, confidence, and practice behaviors were assessed among 452 clinicians who completed the training, Recognizing and Responding to Suicide Risk, and who work with clients at risk for suicide. Data were collected at three time points. Scores on measures of attitudes toward suicide prevention and confidence to work with clients at…

  8. An Evaluation of Transplacental Carcinogenesis for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessments take into account the sensitivity of the postnatal period to carcinogens through the application of age-dependent adjustment factors (ADAFs) (Barton et al. 2005). The prenatal period is also recognized to be sensitive but is typically not included into risk asse...

  9. Clinical Evaluation of a Novel and Mobile Autism Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Marlena; Daniels, Jena; Wall, Dennis P.

    2016-01-01

    The Mobile Autism Risk Assessment (MARA) is a new, electronically administered, 7-question autism spectrum disorder (ASD) screen to triage those at highest risk for ASD. Children 16 months-17 years (N = 222) were screened during their first visit in a developmental-behavioral pediatric clinic. MARA scores were compared to diagnosis from the…

  10. [Evaluating occupational risk in night shift work schedule].

    PubMed

    Sorokin, G A; Frolova, N M

    2014-01-01

    The authors analyzed and summarized risk values of acute and chronic health disorders in night shift workers. Average annual risk increments for various chronic diseases in night shift workers were calculated. Based on these data, the authors conclude on hazard degree of night shift work.

  11. 76 FR 36544 - Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications; Public Workshop; Request for...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-22

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product... of public workshop; request for comments. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for Tobacco... evaluation of modified risk tobacco product (MRTP) applications. The Family Smoking Prevention and...

  12. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  13. Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne

    2010-01-01

    Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

  14. Critical evaluation of the cancer risk of dibromochloropropane (DBCP).

    PubMed

    Clark, Heather A; Snedeker, Suzanne M

    2005-01-01

    Dibromochloropropane (1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane, DBCP), a pesticide used widely for over 20 years to control nematodes on crops, turf and in nurseries, was banned by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) in 1977 because of evidence of infertility in men and induction of a variety of tumors in laboratory animals. Despite the ban on the use of DBCP, this pesticide remains persistent in soil and continues to be detected as a groundwater contaminant in areas of past high use, in particular California's Central Valley. In this review, we present a critical evaluation of the available scientific literature on the potential for DBCP to affect cancer risk, including the results of animal cancer bioassays, human epidemiological studies and in vitro and in vivo genotoxicity studies. In addition, we provide updated information on DBCP chemistry and metabolism, production and past use, current regulations, its environmental fate, potential for human exposure and current remediation efforts. Results from long-term cancer bioassays in rodents show a statistically significant increase in the incidence of malignant and benign mammary gland tumors in female rats treated orally with DBCP compared to controls and some evidence of increased incidence of mammary fibroadenomas in DBCP low-dose treated female rats exposed by inhalation. Significantly increased incidence of tumors of the forestomach occurred in both sexes of rats and mice treated orally. Rats exposed to DBCP by inhalation showed significant increases in tumors of the tunica vaginalis in males; tumors of the pharynx and adrenal gland in females; and tumors of the tongue, nasal turbinate and nasal cavity in both sexes compared to controls. Male and female mice exposed to DBCP by inhalation experienced increased tumor incidence in the lungs and nasal cavity compared to controls. Significant increases in tumors of the lung and forestomach have also been reported in female mice treated by a dermal route

  15. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  16. Qualitative risk evaluation of environmental restoration programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, S.C.

    1996-05-01

    This report documents the evaluation of risks associated with environmental restoration activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory using two tools supplied by DOE to provide a consistent set of risk estimates across the DOE complex: Risk Data Sheets (RDS) and Relative Risk Ranking. The tools are described, the process taken characterized, results provided and discussed. The two approaches are compared and recommendations provided for continuing improvement of the process.

  17. Evaluating and mitigating fracture risk in established rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Mullen, Matthew B; Saag, Kenneth G

    2015-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis are predisposed to systemic bone loss, and they are at an increased risk of fractures. Although there are similarities in the patient demographics between rheumatoid arthritis patients and the general population of osteoporosis patients, there are factors, particularly the use of glucocorticoids, which are specific to rheumatoid arthritis. These factors can lead to an increased risk of bone loss and fracture. Given that fractures are often very debilitating, especially in elderly patients, it is of paramount importance for the practicing rheumatologist to be aware of ways to reduce the risk of fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review discusses currently available modalities for fracture risk assessment as well as pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions available to treat and prevent bone loss in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  18. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C.; Harnik, Paul G.; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P.; Byrnes, Jarrett E.; Finkel, Zoe V.; Lindberg, David R.; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K.; McClain, Craig R.; McGuire, Jenny L.; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M.

    2015-05-01

    Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk—extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models—for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.

  19. Risk Evaluation of Bogie System Based on Extension Theory and Entropy Weight Method

    PubMed Central

    Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui

    2014-01-01

    A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly. PMID:25574159

  20. Evaluation of skin cancer risk for lunar and Mars missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    Methods used to estimate the probability of excess incidence of skin cancer from space radiation exposure must take into consideration the variability of dose to different areas of the body and the individual factors that may contribute to increased risk, including skin pigment and synergistic effects from combined ionizing and UV exposure. We have estimated the skin cancer risk for future lunar and Mars missions using: (1) the multiplicative risk model for transferring the Japanese survivor data to the US population, (2) epidemiological data for the increased risk for skin locations exposed to combined UV and ionizing radiation, and (3) models of space radiation environments, transport, and anatomical shielding for 5260 skin loci. We have estimated that the probability for increased skin cancer risk from solar particle events varies more than 10-fold depending on the individual and area of skin exposed. We show that a skin cancer risk greater than 1% could occur for astronauts with light skin and hair color following exposure to medium or large class solar particle events during future lunar base operations, or from exposure to galactic cosmic rays during Mars missions.

  1. Evaluation of the quality of life and risk of suicide

    PubMed Central

    de Medeiros Alves, Verônica; de Lima Francisco, Leilane Camila Ferreira; Belo, Flaviane Maria Pereira; de-Melo-Neto, Valfrido Leão; Barros, Vinicius Gomes; Nardi, Antonio E

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic profiles, suicidal ideation, the presence of mental disorders and the quality of life of patients using mental health services in Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in family health units and the Psychosocial Attention Center. The sample included 202 mental disorder patients with a risk of suicide attempts, 207 mental disorder patients without a risk of suicide attempts and 196 controls. This study used an identification questionnaire, the abbreviated World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire, Beck‘s Suicidal Ideation Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: Patients who had a mental disorder and a risk of suicide attempts tended to be single, had less education and lower family income, were not working and showed lower scores in quality of life domains; 73 of these patients had suicidal ideation in the previous week. Depressive disorders, manic episodes, hypomanic episodes, social phobias, obsessive compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychotic syndromes and generalized anxiety disorder were more frequent and statistically significant for patients at risk for suicide attempts. CONCLUSION: The management of patients with a risk of suicide attempts must focus on individual patients because this risk is directly linked to changes in quality of life and the improvement of these patients' prognosis. PMID:27074173

  2. [Application of spatial relative risk estimation in communicable disease risk evaluation].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yewu; Guo, Qing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Yu, Meng; Su, Xuemei; Dong, Yan; Zhang, Chunxi

    2015-05-01

    This paper summaries the application of adaptive kernel density algorithm in the spatial relative risk estimation of communicable diseases by using the reported data of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Ludian county and surrounding area in Yunnan province in 2013. Statistically significant fluctuations in an estimated risk function were identified through the use of asymptotic tolerance contours, and finally these data were visualized though disease mapping. The results of spatial relative risk estimation and disease mapping showed that high risk areas were in southeastern Shaoyang next to Ludian. Therefore, the spatial relative risk estimation of disease by using adaptive kernel density algorithm and disease mapping technique is a powerful method in identifying high risk population and areas.

  3. [Application of spatial relative risk estimation in communicable disease risk evaluation].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yewu; Guo, Qing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Yu, Meng; Su, Xuemei; Dong, Yan; Zhang, Chunxi

    2015-05-01

    This paper summaries the application of adaptive kernel density algorithm in the spatial relative risk estimation of communicable diseases by using the reported data of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Ludian county and surrounding area in Yunnan province in 2013. Statistically significant fluctuations in an estimated risk function were identified through the use of asymptotic tolerance contours, and finally these data were visualized though disease mapping. The results of spatial relative risk estimation and disease mapping showed that high risk areas were in southeastern Shaoyang next to Ludian. Therefore, the spatial relative risk estimation of disease by using adaptive kernel density algorithm and disease mapping technique is a powerful method in identifying high risk population and areas. PMID:26080648

  4. A new approach to risk assessment integrating scientific evaluation and economic assessment of costs and benefits.

    PubMed

    Barnard, R C

    1996-10-01

    Traditional quantitative risk assessment based on conservative generic assumptions led to an upper-bound risk value with minimum or no consideration of costs and benefits. There is a growing consensus for a new approach to risk assessment based on a combination of scientific risk assessment and economic cost-benefit analysis. Scientific evaluation would be improved to support the economic cost-benefit analysis. The objective is to demonstrate whether the benefits justify the costs. The move in the new direction is shown by Executive Order 12866 and the Office of Management and Budget implementing document, the proposed regulatory reform legislation in Congress, the draft report of the Risk Assessment and Risk Management Commission, and the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1996 that enacted the new approach combining scientific and economic assessment of risk. This Commentary discusses these developments with particular reference to contemplated changes in scientific risk assessment to support a parallel economic risk-benefit analysis. PMID:8933625

  5. Risk evaluation of land subsidence and its application to metro safety operation in Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Wang, H.; Yan, X.

    2015-11-01

    Based on sufficiently investigating characteristics and risk connotation of land subsidence, a risk evaluation index system for land subsidence disaster is established, which is combined with the sensitivity feature of the hazard bearing body to land subsidence. An appropriate evaluation method system is established by using an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method. So risk evaluation is developed for providing theoretical basis and technical support for the regional management of land subsidence prevention and control. On this basis, as a case of Shanghai metro, firstly, the paper studies the identifying risk sources of the metro. According to metro linear characteristics, external indexes of representing subsidence risk are obtained. Studying the subsidence risk of the metro, relevant achievement has provided the technical basis for daily main monitoring, early warning and work arrangement.

  6. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing

    PubMed Central

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C

    2016-01-01

    Background Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Objective Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. Methods We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). Results We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. Conclusions CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk. PMID:26800642

  7. [Evaluation of operating theatre for the risk prevention].

    PubMed

    Torregrossa, M V; Trapani, S; Cardinale, A E

    2008-01-01

    In this study we analyse factors that predispose to risk and we value the importance of quality and reliability into operating theatre. Patient safety result from ability to plan and manage organizations able to reduce probability of mistakes (Prevention) and to recover and contain their consequences (Protection). The principal motives of mistakes are: - deficiency of sharing procedures between different professional figures for risk prevention; - deficiency of an effective integration between professional figures in operating theatre; - deficiency of charitable precise run to guarantee the continuity of interventions on patient. A risk management program have to take care on this sentinel events and to set up a survey-information system to characterize risks and correction strategies. To prevent patient change, wrong side identification, not working devices or deficiency of surgery materials, it would be useful for operating theatre figures and for anesthetists to work out all together a procedure for admission in operating theatre and a pre-operating check list. The best way to carry out a safety and quality attendance based on standardized procedures and protocols, is to set up risk management firm units. It is necessary to activate and to adjust survey system and effective management training. PMID:18693402

  8. Using a GIS to perform relative risk site evaluations at Air Force installations

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, S.K.; Mardini, K.; Aengenheyster, M.J.; Meng, Q.

    1996-12-31

    The Department of Defense (DoD) has developed the Relative Risk Site Evaluation Framework as a means for categorizing sites and Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the Defense Environmental Restoration Program (DERP) into High, Medium, and Low relative risk groups. This framework is being pursued, in concert with regulators and communities to sequence work in the DERP. Its goal is to ensure that sites with higher risk (relative to other sites) are generally considered first in the priority setting process. DoD is pursuing the use of relative risk, in conjunction with other risk management concerns to help in the sequencing of remedial work. The Acquisition Environmental Management Directorate of the USAF Aeronautical Systems Center (ASC/EM) is charged with the environmental restoration at 12 major industrial plants (AFPs) in the US. At ASC/EM, the Relative Risk MapInfo Interface (RRMI), a MapInfo based GIS application, has been developed to implement relative risk site evaluation for sites on AFPs. The RRMI accesses IRPIMS in a real-time mode to integrate contaminant information for the evaluation of relative risk at sites. Users evaluate sites using point and click commands with the mouse. Site evaluations are done in accordance with the framework and relative risk is depicted pictorially on the base map of the respective installation.

  9. Preoperative risk stratification models fail to predict hospital cost of cardiac surgery patients

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Preoperative risk stratification models have previously been suggested to predict cardiac surgery unit costs. However, there is a lack of consistency in their reliability in this field. In this study we aim to test the correlation between the values of six commonly known preoperative scoring systems and evaluate their reliability at predicting unit costs of cardiac surgery patients. Methods Over a period of 14 months all consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass were prospectively classified using six preoperative scoring models (EuroSCORE, Parsonnet, Ontario, French, Pons and CABDEAL). Transplantation patients were the only patients we excluded. Total hospital costs for each patient were calculated independently on a daily basis using the bottom up method. The full unit costs were calculated including preoperative diagnostic tests, operating room cost, disposable materials, drugs, blood components as well as costs for personnel and fixed hospital costs. The correlation between hospital cost and the six models was determined by linear regression analysis. Both Spearman’s and Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated from the regression lines. An analysis of residuals was performed to determine the quality of the regression. Results A total of 887 patients were operated on for CABG (n = 608), valve (n = 142), CABG plus valve (n = 100), thoracic aorta (n = 33) and ventricular assist devices (n = 4). Mean age of the patients was 68.3±9.9 years, 27.6% were female. 30-day mortality rate was 4.1%. Correlation between the six models and hospital cost was weak (Pearson’s: r < 0.30; Spearman’s: r < 0.40). Conclusion The risk stratification models in this study are not reliable at predicting total costs of cardiac surgical patients. We therefore do not recommend their use for this purpose. PMID:23659251

  10. [Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

    PubMed

    Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.

  11. Single particle effects, Biostack, and risk evaluation - Studies on the radiation risk from Galactic cosmic rays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    The possible health risks posed by Galactic cosmic rays, especially the possible heightened cancer risk, are examined. The results of the Biostack studies of the biological effects of high-energy cosmic rays are discussed. The biological mechanisms involved in possible harm due to cosmic rays are considered.

  12. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  13. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P.

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  14. Evaluating risks to wildlife from coal fly ash incorporating recent advances in metals and metalloids risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Carolyn B; Schlekat, Tamar H; Walls, Suzanne J; Iannuzzi, Jacqueline; Souza, Marcy J

    2015-01-01

    Current scientific advances in metal and metalloid risk assessment were applied to evaluate risk to aquatic and riparian wildlife species potentially impacted by residual coal fly ash after cleanup of an unprecedented large ash release into an aquatic environment-the first assessment of its kind. Risk was evaluated using multiple lines of evidence (LOE), including 1) tissue-based risk assessment of inorganic concentrations in piscivorous and insectivorous bird eggs and raccoon organs, 2) deterministic and probabilistic diet-based risk estimates for 10 receptors species, 3) raccoon health metrics, and 4) tree swallow nest productivity measures. Innovative approaches included use of tissue-based toxicity reference values (TRVs), adjustment of bioavailability in the dietary uptake models (using sequential metal extractions in sediment), partitioning chemical species into uptake compartments (e.g., prey gut, nongut, sediment), incorporating uncertainty in both modeled dose and dietary TRVs, matching TRVs to chemical forms of constituents, and pairing these LOEs with reproductive success or health status of sensitive receptor species. The weight of evidence revealed that risk to wildlife from residual ash was low and that risk, though low, was most pronounced for insectivorous birds from exposure to Se and As. This information contributes to the debate surrounding coal combustion residue regulations prompted by this ash release. Because of the responsible party's proactive approach of applying state-of-the-art methods to assess risk using several LOEs that produced consistent results, and because of their inclusion of the regulating agencies in decisions at every step of the process, the risk assessment results were accepted, and an effective approach toward cleanup protective of the environment was quickly implemented. This study highlights the value of using multiple LOEs and the latest scientific advances to assist in timely decision making to obtain an effective

  15. Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gang, Chen

    IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

  16. [Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

    PubMed

    Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

    2016-05-15

    Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴). PMID:27506017

  17. [Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

    PubMed

    Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

    2016-05-15

    Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

  18. Pedophilia: an evaluation of diagnostic and risk prediction methods.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Robin J; Abracen, Jeffrey; Looman, Jan; Picheca, Janice E; Ferguson, Meaghan

    2011-06-01

    One hundred thirty child sexual abusers were diagnosed using each of following four methods: (a) phallometric testing, (b) strict application of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision [DSM-IV-TR]) criteria, (c) Rapid Risk Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) scores, and (d) "expert" diagnoses rendered by a seasoned clinician. Comparative utility and intermethod consistency of these methods are reported, along with recidivism data indicating predictive validity for risk management. Results suggest that inconsistency exists in diagnosing pedophilia, leading to diminished accuracy in risk assessment. Although the RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR methods were significantly correlated with expert ratings, RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR were unrelated to each other. Deviant arousal was not associated with any of the other methods. Only the expert ratings and RRASOR scores were predictive of sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that expert diagnosis did not add to prediction of sexual offence recidivism over and above RRASOR alone. Findings are discussed within a context of encouragement of clinical consistency and evidence-based practice regarding treatment and risk management of those who sexually abuse children.

  19. Risk in Enterprise Cloud Computing: Re-Evaluated

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Funmilayo, Bolonduro, R.

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative study was conducted to get the perspectives of IT experts about risks in enterprise cloud computing. In businesses, these IT experts are often not in positions to prioritize business needs. The business experts commonly known as business managers mostly determine an organization's business needs. Even if an IT expert classified a…

  20. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  1. A risk evaluation for the fuel retrieval sub-project

    SciTech Connect

    Carlisle, B.S.

    1996-10-11

    This study reviews the technical, schedule and budget baselines of the sub-project to assure all significant issues have been identified on the sub-project issues management list. The issue resolution dates are identified and resolution plans established. Those issues that could adversely impact procurement activities have been uniquely identified on the list and a risk assessment completed.

  2. DEVELOPING TOOLS FOR EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) risk management (RM) is to minimize the release of EDCs into the environment or to minimize the exposure of humans or wildlife to EDCs already present in the environment. RM research projects may involve: substituting more innocuous...

  3. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  4. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  5. Negative Appearance Evaluation Is Associated With Skin Cancer Risk Behaviors Among American Men and Women

    PubMed Central

    Blashill, Aaron J.; Williams, Alison; Grogan, Sarah; Clark-Carter, David

    2015-01-01

    Objective The current study aimed to examine links between appearance evaluation and skin cancer risk behaviors in men and women. Method Data (N = 1,535; men, n = 873; women, n = 662) were extracted from Wave 4 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a nationally representative, longitudinal dataset of U.S. adolescents and young adults. Results Skin cancer risk (i.e., number of hours spent outside for those with a history of severe sunburn and who were unlikely to use sunscreen) was significantly associated with participant gender, appearance evaluation, and their interaction. Both men and women who negatively evaluated their appearance were at significantly increased skin cancer risk, and this was particularly true for men. Conclusions Negative appearance evaluation appears to be a correlate of engaging in behaviors that place individuals at risk of developing skin cancer. Future research may benefit from skin cancer prevention interventions that directly address appearance-based evaluations. PMID:25133823

  6. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. PMID:22819925

  7. Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area.

    PubMed

    Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng

    2012-03-15

    Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure.

  8. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2004, ORD's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) received a request from the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) relating to the evaluation of ecological risk to vertebrate and benthic invertebrate receptors from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds...

  9. Development and Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) represent a potential resource for etiological and treatment research. GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes have been especially successful. To translate this success into a research tool, we developed and tested a “genetic risk score” (GRS) that summarizes an individual’s genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods Different GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes report different sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as the best genomic markers of obesity risk. Therefore, we applied a 3-stage approach that pooled results from multiple GWAS to select SNPs to include in our GRS: The 3 stages are (1) Extraction. SNPs with evidence of association are compiled from published GWAS; (2) Clustering. SNPs are grouped according to patterns of linkage disequilibrium; (3) Selection. Tag SNPs are selected from clusters that meet specific criteria. We applied this 3-stage approach to results from 16 GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes in European-descent samples to create a GRS. We then tested the GRS in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities (ARIC) Study cohort (N=10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Results Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites (for BMI, r=0.13, p<1×10−30; for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.57 [95% CI 0.55–0.58]). The GRS improved prediction of obesity (as measured by delta-AUC and integrated discrimination index) when added to models that included demographic and geographic information. FTO- and MC4R-linked SNPs, and a non-genetic risk assessment consisting of a socioeconomic index (p<0.01 for all comparisons). The GRS also predicted increased mortality risk over 17 years of follow-up. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. Conclusions The obesity GRS derived using our 3-stage approach is not useful for clinical risk prediction, but

  10. Evaluation of association methods for analysing modifiers of disease risk in carriers of high-risk mutations.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Daniel R; Lee, Andrew; Easton, Douglas F; Antoniou, Antonis C

    2012-04-01

    There is considerable evidence indicating that disease risk in carriers of high-risk mutations (e.g. BRCA1 and BRCA2) varies by other genetic factors. Such mutations tend to be rare in the population and studies of genetic modifiers of risk have focused on sampling mutation carriers through clinical genetics centres. Genetic testing targets affected individuals from high-risk families, making ascertainment of mutation carriers non-random with respect to disease phenotype. Standard analytical methods can lead to biased estimates of associations. Methods proposed to address this problem include a weighted-cohort (WC) and retrospective likelihood (RL) approach. Their performance has not been evaluated systematically. We evaluate these methods by simulation and extend the RL to analysing associations of two diseases simultaneously (competing risks RL-CRRL). The standard cohort approach (Cox regression) yielded the most biased risk ratio (RR) estimates (relative bias-RB: -25% to -17%) and had the lowest power. The WC and RL approaches provided similar RR estimates, were least biased (RB: -2.6% to 2.5%), and had the lowest mean-squared errors. The RL method generally had more power than WC. When analysing associations with two diseases, ignoring a potential association with one disease leads to inflated type I errors for inferences with respect to the second disease and biased RR estimates. The CRRL generally gave unbiased RR estimates for both disease risks and had correct nominal type I errors. These methods are illustrated by analyses of genetic modifiers of breast and ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. PMID:22714938

  11. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-12-31

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  12. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T. ); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. )

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  13. Hazardous waste incineration: Evaluating the human health and environmental risks

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, S.M.; Teaf, C.M.; Bean, J.A.

    1999-11-01

    this book investigates the issues regarding human health impacts from hazardous waste incinerators. It details the characterization of hazardous waste emissions; ways to model the atmospheric dispersion of these emissions; and steps to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment. This book also reviews epidemiology to study the effects of hazardous waste incineration. Background information on the fundamentals of hazardous incineration, and the regulations affecting operation of its facilities is provided.

  14. Characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1981-01-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed, using the event and fault-tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which are, at present, unquantifiable using either classical or Bayesian statistics. it is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events, and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance.

  15. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums.

  16. Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis--a case study.

    PubMed

    Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Eaturu, Anuradha; Badarinath, K V S

    2010-07-01

    Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance and environmental concerns in tropical deciduous forests of south India. In this study, we use fuzzy set theory integrated with decision-making algorithm in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to map forest fire risk. Fuzzy set theory implements classes or groupings of data with boundaries that are not sharply defined (i.e., fuzzy) and consists of a rule base, membership functions, and an inference procedure. We used satellite remote sensing datasets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate, and socioeconomic datasets to infer the causative factors of fires. Spatial-level data on these biophysical and socioeconomic parameters have been aggregated at the district level and have been organized in a GIS framework. A participatory multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to arrive at a decision matrix that identified the important causative factors of fires. These expert judgments were then integrated using spatial fuzzy decision-making algorithm to map the forest fire risk. Results from this study were quite useful in identifying potential "hotspots" of fire risk, where forest fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further, this study also demonstrates the potential of multicriteria analysis integrated with GIS as an effective tool in assessing "where and when" forest fires will most likely occur.

  17. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums. PMID:25543101

  18. EVALUATING INTERNAL STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES ON RISK-INFORMED REGULATORY PRACTICES FOR THE NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, L.K.; Wight, E.H.; Caruso, M.A.

    2003-02-27

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation has begun a program to create a risk-informed environment within the reactor program. The first step of the process is to evaluate the existing environment and internal NRC stakeholder perceptions of risk-informed regulatory practices. This paper reports on the results of the first phase of this evaluation: assessing the current environment, including the level of acceptance of risk-informed approaches throughout the reactor program, the level of integration, areas of success, and areas of difficulty. The other two phases of the evaluation will identify barriers to the integration of risk into NRC activities and gather input on how to move to a risk-informed environment.

  19. Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

    SciTech Connect

    Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

    1997-01-01

    This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes.

  20. Low back pain: risk evaluation and preplacement screening.

    PubMed

    Himmelstein, J S; Andersson, G B

    1988-01-01

    As screening tests in a currently asymptomatic population, all of the available methods for predicting low back pain and disability have serious technical, ethical and legal limitations. From a technical point of view, none of the predictive tests appear to have sufficient sensitivity or specificity to justify routine usage. The most sensitive indicator (a past history of low back pain) lacks reliability and specificity. Muscle strength-testing may be predictive of future musculoskeletal injury as part of a well-designed program that considers specific job demands in relation to specific worker capabilities. Unfortunately, the conditions necessary for a well designed program--a large number of predictable high-risk jobs that have measurable specific demands that can be reproduced reliably in a testing situation--are rarely met. In the future, the use of computer-assisted multivariate models analogous to those used in the prediction of cardiovascular risk may be capable of integrating information about an individual's medical history, physical exam, physical capacity and other tests with specific job requirements to give us a more accurate prediction of the future risk of back pain and disability. If such predictive models are ever developed and verified, it would then be appropriate to examine various interventions and their effectiveness in modifying risks for the population and the individual worker. From a legal point of view, all of the techniques described hold potential for significant discrimination against legally protected groups. Making employment decisions with regard to a past history of low back pain or on the basis of an x-ray will lead to systematic age discrimination and discrimination against the handicapped. The use of muscle strength-testing will systematically discriminate against women and certain ethnic groups. The ethical implications of predictive screening for low back pain clearly depends on what is done with the information that is

  1. Use of risk assessment to evaluate effects and plan remediation of abandoned mines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyle, T.P.

    2000-01-01

    A framework of risk assessment is elaborated for the evaluation of the effects of abandoned mines and mills. Steps in this process include environmental description, identification and characterization of sources, assessment of exposure, assessment of effects, risk characterization, and risk management of remediation. The development and use of ecological end-points for remediation is discussed in terms of the chemical constituents, toxicity tests and the biological community.

  2. Evaluating Anthropogenic Risk of Grassland and Forest Habitat Degradation Using Land-Cover Data

    EPA Science Inventory

    The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate an approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining ...

  3. PHILADELPHIA AIR TOXICS STUDY: EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT OPTIONS USING MIRA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluation of risk management options usually takes place within single programs at the U.S. EPA. This can produce inadvertent tradeoffs among important criteria by risk managers and other decision makers; resulting in decision surprises. This study is a demonstration of a diff...

  4. Improving Ascertainment of Risk Factors for HIV Infection: Results of a Group-Randomized Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Kathleen McDavid; Pals, Sherri L.; Sajak, Tammy; Chase, Jennifer; Kajese, Tebitha

    2010-01-01

    To allow appropriate allocation of prevention and care funding, HIV/AIDS surveillance data must include risk factor information, currently available for less than 70% of cases reported in the United States. The authors evaluated an intervention consisting of provider training and materials to improve risk factor reporting. Facilities were matched…

  5. Perceived Risk in College Selection: Differences in Evaluative Criteria Used by Students and Parents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warwick, Jacquelyn; Mansfield, Phylis M.

    2003-01-01

    Students and parents base college selection on how well the college will overcome the perceived financial, social, psychological, physical, and functional risks associated with the college experience. Nineteen criteria associated with these risks were evaluated for significant differences between students and parents as well as for their level of…

  6. [Using the evaluation of carcinogenic risk in the mining and metallurgical enterprises of the Arctic].

    PubMed

    Serebriakov, P V

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study--hygienic assessment of the contribution of factors of working environment) in the formation of carcinogenic risk to the mining and metallurgical enterprises of the Far North, the establishment of the structural features of cancer pathology among workers of these enterprises, quantitative evaluation of individual professional cancer risk in different nosological forms and morphological variants of malignant neoplasms.

  7. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    SciTech Connect

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-05-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

  8. Using the "Risk Factor Paradigm" in Prevention: Lessons from the Evaluation of Communities That Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    France, Alan; Crow, Iain

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses results from an evaluation of the UK-based Communities that Care programme. This "risk and protective" programme was set up in 1997 by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation with a central aim of exploring if such an approach could be successful in the UK context. Communities that Care puts into operation the "risk factor paradigm" by…

  9. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health risk assessment: WHO guideline document.

    PubMed Central

    2000-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessment is increasingly being used in the development of environmental health policies, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. The credibility of risk assessment depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. It is, therefore, imperative that the processes and methods used to evaluate the evidence and estimate health risks are clear, explicit, and based on valid epidemiological theory and practice. Epidemiological Evidence for Environmental Health Risk Assessment is a World Health Organization (WHO) guideline document. The primary target audiences of the guidelines are expert review groups that WHO (or other organizations) might convene in the future to evaluate epidemiological evidence on the health effects of environmental factors. These guidelines identify a set of processes and general approaches to assess available epidemiological information in a clear, consistent, and explicit manner. The guidelines should also help in the evaluation of epidemiological studies with respect to their ability to support risk assessment and, consequently, risk management. Conducting expert reviews according to such explicit guidelines would make health risk assessment and subsequent risk management and risk communication processes more readily understood and likely to be accepted by policymakers and the public. It would also make the conclusions reached by reviews more readily acceptable as a basis for future WHO guidelines and other recommendations, and would provide a more rational basis for setting priorities for future research. PMID:11049823

  10. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health risk assessment: WHO guideline document.

    PubMed

    2000-10-01

    Environmental health risk assessment is increasingly being used in the development of environmental health policies, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. The credibility of risk assessment depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. It is, therefore, imperative that the processes and methods used to evaluate the evidence and estimate health risks are clear, explicit, and based on valid epidemiological theory and practice. Epidemiological Evidence for Environmental Health Risk Assessment is a World Health Organization (WHO) guideline document. The primary target audiences of the guidelines are expert review groups that WHO (or other organizations) might convene in the future to evaluate epidemiological evidence on the health effects of environmental factors. These guidelines identify a set of processes and general approaches to assess available epidemiological information in a clear, consistent, and explicit manner. The guidelines should also help in the evaluation of epidemiological studies with respect to their ability to support risk assessment and, consequently, risk management. Conducting expert reviews according to such explicit guidelines would make health risk assessment and subsequent risk management and risk communication processes more readily understood and likely to be accepted by policymakers and the public. It would also make the conclusions reached by reviews more readily acceptable as a basis for future WHO guidelines and other recommendations, and would provide a more rational basis for setting priorities for future research. PMID:11049823

  11. A skin sensitization risk assessment approach for evaluation of new ingredients and products.

    PubMed

    Gerberick, G F; Robinson, M K

    2000-06-01

    Skin sensitization risk assessment of new ingredients or products is critical before their introduction into the marketplace. The risk assessment process described in this article involves evaluation of skin sensitization hazard, consideration of all potential human exposures, comparative ingredient/product benchmarking, and, when appropriate, the management of the risk. In this article, a risk assessment process is reviewed along with a description of the risk assessment tools that are employed for evaluating a new ingredient or product. The basic process we use for evaluating the skin sensitization risk of a new product or ingredient is considered a no effect/safety factor approach. The tools used for conducting a risk assessment include structure activity relationship analysis, exposure assessment, preclinical testing (e.g., local lymph node assay [LNNA]) and clinical testing (e.g., human repeat insult patch testing [HRIPT]). The skin sensitization risk assessment process described in this paper has been used successfully for many years for the safe introduction of new products into the marketplace. This process is dynamic--it can be applied to a diversity of product categories (e.g., shampoo, transdermal drug). In summary, the skin sensitization risk assessment process described in this article allows one to carefully assess the skin sensitization potential of a new ingredient or product so that it can be safely introduced into the marketplace.

  12. The value-at-risk evaluation of Brent's crude oil market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheong, Chin Wen; Isa, Zaidi; Ying, Khor Chia; Lai, Ng Sew

    2014-06-01

    This study investigates the market risk of the Brent's crude oil market. First the long memory time-varying volatility is modelled under the Chung's specification. Second, for model adequacy evaluations on the heavy-tailed, long memory and endogenously estimated power transformation models indicated superior performance in out-of-sample forecasts. Lastly, these findings are further applied in the long and short trading positions of market risk evaluations of the Brent's market.

  13. Evaluation of Post Laryngectomy Pharyngocutaneous Fistula risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Nitassi, Sophia; Belayachi, Jihane; Chihab, Mohammed; Rkain, Ilham; Benayad, Jalila; Benbouzid, Mohammed Anas; Oujilal, Abdelillah; Essakalli, Leila

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Pharyngocutaneous fistula (PCF) is the most common complication after total laryngectomy. Its incidence is extremely variable, with values ranging from 3% and 65%. The management of this problem considerably increases the length and the cost of hospitalization. The aim of this study is to analyze the incidence, predisposing factors, and outcome of PCF in patients undergoing total laryngectomy in a Moroccan teaching hospital in Rabat, Morocco. Materials and Methods: This study is a retrospective study including 136 patients who underwent total laryngectomy for squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx in our institution, between January 2006 and December 2013. Socio-demographical, biological, surgical, and outcome data were included. Risk factors were analyzed for association with PCF formation. Results: The overall PCF rate was 27.8%. The mean age was 58 (32-82 years). Univariate analysis showed age (P= 0,028), hemoglobin (P=0,026), and previous tracheotomy (P=0,028) to be associated with the onset of PCF. However, multivariate analysis revealed that previous tracheotomy (P=0,028) and low level of preoperative hemoglobin (P=0,026) were highly associated with the occurrence of PCF. Conclusion: This is an original work performed in an African country with a large serie. Our findings suggest that age, previous tracheotomy, and low level of haemoglobin are risk factors for PCF onset after total laryngectomy in T4 squamous cell carcinoma. PMID:27280101

  14. Evaluating eye injury risk of Airsoft pellet guns by parametric risk functions.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Eric A; Ng, Tracy P; Duma, Stefan M

    2006-01-01

    Over 2.4 million eye injuries occur each year in the United States as a result of trauma. New toy guns, commonly referred to as Airsoft guns are increasingly becoming responsible for ocular injuries in children. The purpose of this study was to determine the ocular injury risk of these Airsoft guns by experimental testing and the use of previously generated ocular injury risk functions. A total of 26 Airsoft pellet impact tests were performed on both post-mortem human and porcine eyes in a laboratory environment. Projectile parameters of diameter, mass, and velocity were used to calculate the injury potential of these impacts for five different ocular injuries: corneal abrasion, lens dislocation, hyphema, retinal damage, and globe rupture. Globe rupture was not observed in any of the experimental tests, which is consistent with that reported in the literature. The two most likely ocular injuries caused by these Airsoft guns are corneal abrasion and hyphema, at nearly a 100% and a greater than 75% risk of injury, respectively. This is consistent with the types of injuries reported in the literature, with corneal abrasion and hyphema being the most frequently occurring ocular injuries due to Airsoft guns. More experimental data on retinal injuries is necessary to make an accurate assessment of the risk of retinal damage from blunt impacts. In summary, the potential for ocular injury from Airsoft guns is great and protective equipment such as protective eyewear should be considered mandatory during operation.

  15. Basin Scale Water Infrastructure Investment Evaluation Considering Climate Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaheil, Y. H.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    Water storage infrastructure has historically been a primary means of addressing vulnerability to climate risk. Rainfall, and streamflow fluctuate at many time scales, rendering supply unreliable unless a mechanism for surface or subsurface storage is provided. Irrigated agriculture typically provides dramatically higher yields relative to rain fed agriculture, by ensuring a regular, when needed water supply. Irrigation is also typically the dominant water user in most parts of the world. Addressing storage-irrigation infrastructure needs is thus a critical piece in developing a strategy for regional water and food security in the face of a changing climate. In the 20th century, large reservoir and canal system projects were funded and developed in many regions. It is argued that these played a significant role in facilitating the Green Revolution in India, Pakistan and elsewhere. However, this notion has been challenged, and many negative environmental and socio-economic impacts of such projects have been highlighted. Governance and maintenance of such hydraulic infrastructure has also been a challenge, and a paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and participatory processes has been argued for. In the last decade or so, considerable interest has been directed towards local or on-farm decentralized storage development, i.e., towards small scale reservoir and use systems where governance may be less of an issue. There has been government support of such activities in countries such as India, leading to a rapid proliferation of such systems in some areas. Questions about the effect of such development on the regional hydrologic balance and as to their resilience in a changing climate arise. Further, in the spirit of IWRM, one needs to consider the potential use of water as well as the development and management of supply. In the current context, a central question that can be posed is the identification of the best mix of centralized and

  16. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    PubMed

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  17. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation. PMID:26528994

  18. Development of a system to evaluate and communicate radiation risk

    SciTech Connect

    Wiatrowski, W.A.; Giles, E.R.; Cooke, E.P. |

    1996-01-01

    Review of research protocols involving positron emission tomography studies on healthy volunteers focused attention on the radiation exposure disclosure statements contained in the informed consent form. Of particular concern was the observation that breast doses from positron emission tomography studies are greater than breast doses from other research uses of radioisotopes, as well as routine nuclear medicine and radiographic procedures. Disclosure of individual organ doses is not normally provided on informed consent forms. A worksheet was developed to aid research investigators in the determination of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents from all sources of radiation to which a volunteer is exposed. Three standardized risk statements are discussed. The final selection and use of these statements are determines by worksheet calculations of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents. 18 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  19. Evaluation of Potential Risk of Botulism from Seafood Cocktails

    PubMed Central

    Lerke, Peter

    1973-01-01

    Clostridium botulinum E could not be detected in 35 samples of commercial seafood cocktails, ranging in pH from 4.10 to 4.85. At 30 C, toxinogenesis in homogenates acidified with a citric-acetic acid mixture was prevented at pH 4.86 or lower for crabmeat and at 5.03 or lower for shrimp. Measurements of the rate of acid penetration into the centers of large pieces of flesh indicated that the already small risk of botulism from seafood cocktails could be completely eliminated by using a cocktail sauce at a maximum pH of 3.70 and by cooling the final product to at least 10 C for 24 h. PMID:4577180

  20. Methods to evaluate the nutrition risk in hospitalized patients

    PubMed Central

    Erkan, Tülay

    2014-01-01

    The rate of malnutrition is substantially high both in the population and in chronic patients hospitalized because of different reasons. The rate of patients with no marked malnutrition at the time of hospitalization who develop malnutrition during hospitalization is also substantially high. Therefore, there are currently different screening methods with different targets to prevent malnutrition and its overlook. These methods should be simple and reliable and should not be time-consuming in order to be used in daily practice. Seven nutrition risk screening methods used in children have been established until the present time. However, no consensus has been made on any method as in adults. It should be accepted that interrogation of nutrition is a part of normal examination to increase awareness on this issue and to draw attention to this issue. PMID:26078678

  1. SCOPE of Pain: An Evaluation of an Opioid Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Continuing Education Program

    PubMed Central

    Zisblatt, Lara; Ng, Pamela; Hayes, Sean M.; Peloquin, Sophie; Hardesty, Ilana; White, Julie L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Due to the high prevalence of prescription opioid misuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) mandated a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requiring manufacturers of extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioid analgesics to fund continuing education based on a FDA Blueprint. This article describes the Safe and Competent Opioid Prescribing Education (SCOPE of Pain) program, an ER/LA opioid analgesic REMS program, and its impact on clinician knowledge, confidence, attitudes, and self-reported clinical practice. Method. Participants of the 3-h SCOPE of Pain training completed pre-, immediate post- and 2-month post-assessments. Subjects. The primary target group (n = 2,850), and a subset (n = 476) who completed a 2-month post-assessment, consisted of clinicians licensed to prescribe ER/LA opioid analgesics, who care for patients with chronic pain and who completed the 3-h training between February 28, 2013 and June 13, 2014. Results. Immediately post-program, there was a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 84%, P ≤ 0.02) and 87% of participants planned to make practice changes. At 2-months post-program, there continued to be a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 69%, P ≤ 0.03) and 67% reported increased confidence in applying safe opioid prescribing care and 86% reported implementing practice changes. There was also an improvement in alignment of desired attitudes toward safe opioid prescribing. Conclusions. The SCOPE of Pain program improved knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and self-reported clinical practice in safe opioid prescribing. This national REMS program holds potential to improve the safe use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:26304703

  2. Evaluation of nosocomial infection risk using APACHE II scores in the neurological intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Li, Hai-Ying; Li, Shu-Juan; Yang, Nan; Hu, Wen-Li

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of using the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system for predicting the risk of nosocomial infection in the neurological intensive care unit (NICU), 216 patients transferred to NICU within 24hours of admission were retrospectively evaluated. Based on admission APACHE II scores, they were classified into three groups, with higher APACHE II scores representing higher infectious risk. The device utilization ratios and device-associated infection ratios of NICU patients were analyzed and compared with published reports on patient outcome. Statistical analysis of nosocomial infection ratios showed obvious differences between the high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups (p<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the APACHE II model in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection was 0.81, which proved to be reliable and consistent with the expectation. In addition, we found statistical differences in the duration of hospital stay (patient-days) and device utilization (device-days) between different risk groups (p<0.05). Thus the APACHE II scoring system was validated in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection, duration of patient-days and device-days, and providing accurate assessment of patients' condition, so that appropriate prevention strategies can be implemented based on admission APACHE II scores.

  3. Evaluating the risk and attractiveness of romantic partners when confronted with contradictory cues.

    PubMed

    Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin; Curtis, Brenda; Barrett, Daniel W

    2007-05-01

    Research shows that people engage in "risky" sex with "safe" partners and in "safer" sex with "riskier" partners. How is the determination of "risky" or "safe" status made? Factorial survey methodology was used to randomly construct descriptions of romantic partners based on attractive and/or risky characteristics. Respondents evaluated 20 descriptions for attractiveness, health risk, likelihood of going on a date, likelihood of unprotected sex, and likelihood of STD/HIV infection. Respondents were most attracted to and perceived the least risk from attractive descriptions and were least attracted to and perceived the most risk from the risky descriptions. The differences between the "conflicting information" descriptions are attributable to a primacy effect: descriptions that began with attractiveness information but end with risk information were evaluated more positively than those that began with risk and ended with attractive information.

  4. The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Latimer, John A.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

  5. [Theoretical evaluation of the risk of decompression illness during simulated extravehicular activity].

    PubMed

    Nikolaev, V P

    2008-01-01

    Theoretical analysis of the risk of decompression illness (DI) during extravehicular activity following the Russian and NASA decompression protocols (D-R and D-US, respectively) was performed. In contrast to the tradition approach to decompression stress evaluation by the factor of tissue supersaturation with nitrogen, our probabilistic theory of decompression safety provides a completely reasoned evaluation and comparison of the levels of hazard of these decompression protocols. According to this theory, the function of cumulative DI risk is equal to the sum of functions of cumulative risk of lesion of all body tissues by gas bubbles and their supersaturation by solute gases. Based on modeling of dynamics of these functions, growth of the DI cumulative risk in the course of D-R and D-US follows essentially similar trajectories within the time-frame of up to 330 minutes. However, further extension of D-US but not D-R raises the risk of DI drastically.

  6. [Theoretical evaluation of the risk of decompression illness during simulated extravehicular activity].

    PubMed

    Nikolaev, V P

    2008-01-01

    Theoretical analysis of the risk of decompression illness (DI) during extravehicular activity following the Russian and NASA decompression protocols (D-R and D-US, respectively) was performed. In contrast to the tradition approach to decompression stress evaluation by the factor of tissue supersaturation with nitrogen, our probabilistic theory of decompression safety provides a completely reasoned evaluation and comparison of the levels of hazard of these decompression protocols. According to this theory, the function of cumulative DI risk is equal to the sum of functions of cumulative risk of lesion of all body tissues by gas bubbles and their supersaturation by solute gases. Based on modeling of dynamics of these functions, growth of the DI cumulative risk in the course of D-R and D-US follows essentially similar trajectories within the time-frame of up to 330 minutes. However, further extension of D-US but not D-R raises the risk of DI drastically. PMID:19055008

  7. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  8. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-01

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

  9. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-01-01

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

  10. Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, H.R. Abadin, H.G.

    2008-11-15

    Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se.

  11. Risk Assessment of Physical Hazards in Greek Hospitals Combining Staff's Perception, Experts' Evaluation and Objective Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Sourtzi, Panayiota; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sgourou, Evi; Koumoulas, Emmanouel; Velonakis, Emmanouel

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The promotion of health and safety (H&S) awareness among hospital staff can be applied through various methods. The aim of this study was to assess the risk level of physical hazards in the hospital sector by combining workers' perception, experts' evaluation and objective measurements. Methods A cross-sectional study was designed using multiple triangulation. Hospital staff (n = 447) filled in an H&S questionnaire in a general hospital in Athens and an oncology one in Thessaloniki. Experts observed and filled in a checklist on H&S in the various departments of the two hospitals. Lighting, noise and microclimate measurements were performed. Results The staff's perception of risk was higher than that of the experts in many cases. The measured risk levels were low to medium. In cases of high-risk noise and lighting, staff and experts agreed. Staff's perception of risk was influenced by hospital's department, hospital's service, years of working experience and level of education. Therefore, these factors should be taken into account in future studies aimed at increasing the participation of hospital workers. Conclusion This study confirmed the usefulness of staff participation in the risk assessment process, despite the tendency for staff to overestimate the risk level of physical hazards. The combination of combining staff perception, experts' evaluation and objective measures in the risk assessment process increases the efficiency of risk management in the hospital environment and the enforcement of relevant legislation. PMID:22953210

  12. Evaluation of Cholangiocarcinoma Risk and its Related Factors in Wetland Geographical Communities of Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand.

    PubMed

    Songserm, Nopparat; Woradet, Somkiattiyos; Bureelerd, Onanong; Charoenbut, Pattaraporn

    2016-01-01

    Wetland geographical areas have a higher incidence of Opisthorchis viverrini-associated cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), confirmed by data from geographic information systems, than other areas. Behavioral data also indicate that people in these areas traditionally eat uncooked freshwater fish dishes, a vehicle for O. viverrini infection. The best approach to reducing CCA incidence is decreasing risk factors together with behavior alteration. Evaluation of CCA risk and its related factors are first needed for planning the prevention and control programs in the future. We therefore aimed to evaluate the CCA risk and explore its related factors among people in wetland communities of Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand. A cross-sectional study was conducted between July and August 2014. In total 906 participants, with informed consent, completed questionnaires. Overall risk of CCA was determined by multiplying odds ratios (ORs) of the risk factors for CCA from literature reviews. A mean score of 5.95 was applied as the cut-off point. Assessment of factors related to overall risk of CCA was accomplished using conditional logistic regression. Of all participants, 60.15% had a high level of the overall risk of CCA. Factors related to the overall risk of CCA were gender (<0.001), marital status (<0.001), perceived susceptibility (p=0.043) and prevention behavior for CCA (<0.001). In conclusion, most participants in this community had a high level of overall risk of CCA. Therefore, integrated prevention and control programs continue to be urgently required. PMID:27221857

  13. Evaluation of the transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan.

    PubMed

    Hayama, Yoko; Yamamoto, Takehisa; Kobayashi, Sota; Muroga, Norihiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

    2015-09-01

    The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.

  14. Do sunscreens increase or decrease melanoma risk: an epidemiologic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Weinstock, M A

    1999-09-01

    Ultraviolet adiation is an important cause of melanoma, so the use of sunscreen lotions has been advocated for melanoma prevention. Several arguments have been raised in opposition to this inference. Sunscreen use may interfere with cutaneous vitamin D synthesis, which some have hypothesized may lower melanoma risk. Sunscreen users may compensate for their sunscreen use by staying out much longer in the sun, or may use sunscreen lotions inconsistantly. Published melanoma case-control studies have not consistantly demonstrated a protective effect of sunscreens; however, these studies do not provide strong evidence, ultraviolet radiation is a known cause of melanoma, and ultraviolet B may be particularly potent, so on balance the evidence supports continued advocacy of sunscreen lotion use as part of an overall sun-protection regimen. Uncertainty will remain, however, until the action spectrum of melanoma is convincingly demonstrated or the methodologic limitations of existing epidemiologic evidence are overcome. The latter may require another decade or more of experience with sunscreen use.

  15. Multiple end point procedure to evaluate risk from pesticides.

    PubMed Central

    Cantelli-Forti, G; Paolini, M; Hrelia, P

    1993-01-01

    Because of the potential environmental impact of pesticides and the large population potentially exposed, the effects of chronic exposure to pesticides need to be determined. Mutagenicity studies have been used to identify specific agents as potential carcinogens or other human health hazards. However, short-term tests are only theoretically correlated to carcinogenesis because their end points can measure only the genotoxic potential of chemicals, i.e., their activities as initiating agents in multistep carcinogenesis. The objective of our research presented here is to provide a comprehensive examination of the mechanism of toxicity of a series of pesticides. These are substances for which toxicity, at both the genetic and metabolic level, has not been adequately described. Preliminary results on a broad series of compounds belonging to different biological classes (herbicide, insecticide, fungicide) seem to indicate that pesticides are toxic but are poor initiating agents, as shown by negative or weak positive results on different genetic end points (gene mutations, DNA effects, and chromosome aberrations in vitro and in vivo). Immunochemical and biochemical studies, however, seem to indicate the cocarcinogenic and promoting potential of these chemicals. As an example, the genotoxic and biochemical effects induced by Fenarimol (a fungicide) are discussed. The results reported stress the importance of identifying chemicals that act at different levels of the multistep carcinogenesis process to ascertain the risk associated with exposure. PMID:8143608

  16. Percutaneous implantation of the CoreValve aortic valve prosthesis in patients at high risk or rejected for surgical valve replacement: Clinical evaluation and feasibility of the procedure in the first 30 patients in the AMC-UvA.

    PubMed

    Baan, J; Yong, Z Y; Koch, K T; Henriques, J P S; Bouma, B J; de Hert, S G; van der Meulen, J; Tijssen, J G P; Piek, J J; de Mol, B A J M

    2010-01-01

    Objective. To report the feasibility, safety and efficacy of percutaneous aortic valve implantation (PAVI) with the CoreValve self-expanding aortic valve bioprosthesis in elderly patients with aortic valve stenosis who are rejected for surgery or have a high surgical risk.Methods. PAVI using the CoreValve ReValving System was performed under general anaesthesia in 30 high-risk (surgical) patients with a symptomatic severe aortic valve stenosis.Results. The patients had a mean age of 80.5+/-7.7 years, a mean aortic valve area of 0.71+/-0.19 cm(2), a peak transvalvular aortic gradient of 79+/-25 mmHg, as measured with echo Doppler, a logistic EuroSCORE of 15+/-10% and a Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score of 5.2+/-2.9%. Device success was achieved in all patients and acute procedural success in 27 patients (90%). In the surviving patients, there was in a reduction of the peak aortic pressure gradient from 76+/-24 mmHg to 22+/-7 mmHg (n=24, p<0.00001) 30 days after successful device implantation. At 30 days, major adverse cardiovascular and cerebral events had occurred in seven patients (23%). This included mortality in six patients (20%), of which one death was cardiovascular. The other five non-cardiovascular deaths involved two patients who died of an exacerbation of severe pre-existent pulmonary disease and three of infectious complications.Conclusions. Percutaneous aortic valve implantation was successfully performed in our centre in highrisk patients, with a 30-day mortality of 20%. When successful, marked haemodynamic improvement and relief of symptoms was achieved. (Neth Heart J 2010;18:18-24.).

  17. Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II

    1994-11-01

    This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site.

  18. Evaluating risks to agricultural production from acid deposition

    SciTech Connect

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Oden, N.L.; Medeiros, W.H.; Coveney, E.A.

    1986-10-01

    Although it has been established that agricultural yields can be affected adversely by ozone and other air pollutants, the effects of existing levels of acid deposition on crops are less well understood. Evaluations of potential effects from growth chamber, greenhouse and field experiments have not identified any single crop as being consistently sensitive to acid deposition. Quantitative analysis of one crop (soybeans), which has demonstrated some sensitivity to acid deposition treatments in field settings, suggest that if current acid deposition levels are reduced by 50%, then US soybean production would increase by approximately 1%. These estimates are based on the fundamental assumption that estimated dose-response functions are homogeneous across biologic, geographic and temporal space; an assumption not supported by recently developed experimental data. As a result, confidence in this conclusion is weak.

  19. [Integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters affecting longyan yield in Fujian Province, East China].

    PubMed

    Chen, Jia-Jin; Wang, Jia-Yi; Li, Li-Chun; Lin, Jing; Yang, Kai; Ma, Zhi-Guo; Xu, Zong-Huan

    2012-03-01

    In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters on the Longyan production in Fujian Province was constructed, based on the analysis of the major environmental factors affecting the Longyan growth and yield, and from the viewpoints of potential hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Longyan growth regions in the Province. In addition, an integrated evaluation model of multiple disasters was established to evaluate the risks of the major agro-meteorological disasters affecting the Longyan yield, based on the yearly meteorological data, Longyan planting area and yield, and other socio-economic data in Longyan growth region in Fujian, and by using the integral weight of risk indices determined by AHP and entropy weight coefficient methods. In the Province, the Longyan growth regions with light integrated risk of multiple disasters were distributed in the coastal counties (except Dongshan County) with low elevation south of Changle, the regions with severe and more severe integrated risk were mainly in Zhangping of Longyan, Dongshan, Pinghe, Nanjin, and Hua' an of Zhangzhou, Yongchun and Anxi of Quanzhou, north mountainous areas of Putian and Xianyou, Minqing, Minhou, Luoyuan, and mountainous areas of Fuzhou, and Fuan, Xiapu, and mountainous areas of Ninde, among which, the regions with severe integrated risk were in Dongshan, Zhangping, and other mountainous areas with high altitudes, and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the Province.

  20. NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Belyeu, Rebecca L.

    2000-01-01

    As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

  1. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

    2016-06-01

    A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325. PMID:27033777

  2. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs.

  3. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  4. Evaluation of rear-end crash risk at work zone using work zone traffic data.

    PubMed

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims to evaluate the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area and merging area, as well as analyze the impacts of contributing factors by using work zone traffic data. Here, the rear-end crash risk is referred to as the probability that a vehicle is involved in a rear-end crash accident. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is used in measuring rear-end crash risk. Based on work zone traffic data in Singapore, three rear-end crash risk models are developed to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk at activity area and its contributing factors. The fourth rear-end crash risk model is developed to examine the effects of merging behavior on crash risk at merging area. The ANOVA results show that the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area is statistically different from lane positions. Model results indicate that rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area increases with heavy vehicle percentage and lane traffic flow rate. An interesting finding is that the lane closer to work zone is strongly associated with higher rear-end crash risk. A truck has much higher probability involving in a rear-end accident than a car. Further, the expressway work zone activity area is found to have much larger crash risk than arterial work zone activity area. The merging choice has the dominated effect on risk reduction, suggesting that encouraging vehicles to merge early may be the most effective method to reduce rear-end crash risk at work zone merging area.

  5. Using artificial burrows to evaluate inhalation risks to burrowing mammals.

    PubMed

    Markwiese, James T; Tiller, Brett; Ryti, Randall T; Bauer, Roy

    2008-10-01

    Since the onset of plutonium production at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site, several hundred cubic meters of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has been discharged to the soil column, resulting in a dispersed CCI4 vapor plume in the subsurface. Inhalation of volatile organic chemicals could be an important exposure pathway for burrowing animals there. Historical levels of CCl4 in soil pore gas exceeded the inhalation ecological screening level for CCl4. Thus, the inhalation exposure pathway was evaluated with the use of artificial burrows deployed at locations that had elevated levels of CCl4 in soil gas. Artificial burrows were designed on the basis of information available for Hanford Site fossorial wildlife. After installation, the artificial burrow atmosphere was sampled and analyzed for CCl4 and its degradation products: chloroform, methylene chloride, and chloromethane. Sampling was repeated on 3 occasions to capture varying atmospheric conditions affecting exposure concentrations. CCl4 was detected in the artificial burrows, and maximum exposures were observed during relatively low barometric conditions. The highest CCl4 detections were still well below the inhalation-based ecological screening level and CCl4 degradation products were never detected. This study shows that artificial burrows are an efficient method for obtaining relevant exposure data and illustrates the utility of directly measuring the medium for exposure under ecologically realistic conditions.

  6. Active Smoking, Passive Smoking, and Breast Cancer Risk: Findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yingsong; Kikuchi, Shogo; Tamakoshi, Koji; Wakai, Kenji; Kondo, Takaaki; Niwa, Yoshimitsu; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Nishio, Kazuko; Suzuki, Sadao; Tokudome, Shinkan; Yamamoto, Akio; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Mori, Mitsuru; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2008-01-01

    Background Evidence is lacking regarding the relationship between cigarette smoking and breast cancer in Japanese women. We examined the association between breast cancer incidence and active and passive smoking in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk. Methods Our study comprised 34,401 women aged 40-79 years who had not been diagnosed previously with breast cancer and who provided information on smoking status at baseline (1988-1990). The subjects were followed from enrollment until December 31, 2001. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association between breast cancer incidence and tobacco smoke. Results During 271,412 person-years of follow-up, we identified 208 incident cases of breast cancer. Active smoking did not increase the risk of breast cancer, with a HR for current smokers of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.32-1.38). Furthermore, an increased risk of breast cancer was not observed in current smokers who smoked a greater number of cigarettes each day. Overall, passive smoking at home or in public spaces was also not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer among nonsmokers. Women who reported passive smoking during childhood had a statistically insignificant increase in risk (HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.84-1.85), compared with those who had not been exposed during this time. Conclusion Smoking may not be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in this cohort of Japanese women. PMID:18403857

  7. A Different Perspective on Empowerment in Evaluation: Benefits and Risks to the Evaluation Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Patricia D.; Backus, Cheryl A.

    1995-01-01

    The phenomenon of empowerment in evaluation is examined by hypothesizing possible benefits and harms that may accrue from the program development process and the impact both may have on the evaluation. The evaluation of the Health Care Intervention Service of New York State offers an example. (SLD)

  8. Uncertainties in evaluation of hazard and seismic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen; Manea, Elena-Florinela

    2015-04-01

    Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic(DSHA) seismic hazard analysis.Selection of a ground motion for engineering design requires a clear understanding of seismic hazard and risk among stakeholders, seismologists and engineers. What is wrong with traditional PSHA or DSHA ? PSHA common used in engineering is using four assumptions developed by Cornell in 1968:(1)-Constant-in-time average occurrence rate of earthquakes; (2)-Single point source; (3).Variability of ground motion at a site is independent;(4)-Poisson(or "memory - less") behavior of earthquake occurrences. It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the inability of us to predict the course of nature"(Nils Bohr). DSHA method was used for the original design of Fukushima Daichii, but Japanese authorities moved to probabilistic assessment methods and the probability of exceeding of the design basis acceleration was expected to be 10-4-10-6 . It was exceeded and it was a violation of the principles of deterministic hazard analysis (ignoring historical events)(Klügel,J,U, EGU,2014, ISSO). PSHA was developed from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science(invalid physical models- point source and Poisson distribution; invalid mathematics; misinterpretation of annual probability of exceeding or return period etc.) and become a pure numerical "creation" (Wang, PAGEOPH.168(2011),11-25). An uncertainty which is a key component for seismic hazard assessment including both PSHA and DSHA is the ground motion attenuation relationship or the so-called ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground motion parameter (i.e., PGA,MMI etc.), earthquake magnitude M, source to site distance R, and an uncertainty. So far, no one is taking into consideration strong nonlinear behavior of soils during of strong earthquakes. But

  9. Risk Evaluation for CO2 Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup, Illinois Basin Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-09-30

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently

  10. Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

    SciTech Connect

    Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-01-31

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i

  11. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    PubMed

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-01-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks. PMID:26288999

  12. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    SciTech Connect

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  13. Implementing relative risk site evaluation at USAF and Corps of Engineers (FUDS) installations

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, S.K.; Edwards, S.

    1995-12-31

    The Department of Defense (DoD) has developed the Relative Risk Site Evaluation Framework as a means for categorizing sites and Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the Defense Environmental Restoration Program (DERP) into High, Medium, and Low relative risk groups. This framework is being pursued, in concert with regulators and communities to sequence work in the DERP. Its goal is to ensure that sites with higher risk (relative to other sites) are generally considered first in the priority setting process. DoD is pursuing the use of relative risk, in conjunction with other risk management concerns (e.g., regulatory agreement status of sites, public health recommendations), to help in the sequencing of remedial work.

  14. Hepatic splenosis diagnosed after inappropriate metastatic evaluation in patient with low-risk prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Li, Hanhan; Snow-Lisy, Devon; Klein, Eric A

    2012-05-01

    A man interested in active surveillance of low-risk prostate cancer sought a second opinion after having undergone an inappropriate metastatic evaluation that demonstrated multiple enhancing liver masses. Because of his history of splenectomy for trauma, hepatic splenosis was suspected. Despite reassurance, the patient desired biopsy of the masses to confirm splenosis. The imaging features and pathophysiology of hepatic splenosis are presented. Owing to the low rates of metastatic disease, the current guidelines do not recommend diagnostic imaging for low-risk prostate cancer. The present case illustrates the dangers of the current widespread practice of inappropriate diagnostic imaging of patients with low-risk prostate cancer.

  15. Non-invasive evaluation of arrhythmic risk in dilated cardiomyopathy: From imaging to electrocardiographic measures

    PubMed Central

    Iacoviello, Massimo; Monitillo, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Malignant ventricular arrhythmias are a major adverse event and worsen the prognosis of patients affected by ischemic and non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy. The main parameter currently used to stratify arrhythmic risk and guide decision making towards the implantation of a cardioverter defibrillator is the evaluation of the left ventricular ejection fraction. However, this strategy is characterized by several limitations and consequently additional parameters have been suggested in order to improve arrhythmic risk stratification. The aim of this review is to critically revise the prognostic significance of non-invasive diagnostic tools in order to better stratify the arrhythmic risk prognosis of dilated cardiomyopathy patients. PMID:25068017

  16. [Psychometric properties of the Psychosocial Risk Evaluation Battery for medium and small companies].

    PubMed

    Guàrdia Olmos, Joan; Peró Cebollero, Maribel; Barrios Cerrejón, Maite

    2008-11-01

    The assessment of the presence and intensity of psychosocial risks is constant in research into Work Psychopathology. Many questionnaires and diagnosis systems are partial or else there is no standardization process or reliability and validity study. The main purpose of this work is to present the psychometric data of a multidimensional system to assess psychosocial risks, elaborated conjointly by the Universitat of Barcelona and the MC Mutual. This battery assesses companies, using information from the prevention technicians, the directive staff and the workers. With the diverse types of information, a triangulation proposal is established to offer a psychosocial risk profile linked to the evaluation needs.

  17. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  18. Evaluating the risks of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) pollution of urban groundwater.

    PubMed

    Chisala, Brenda N; Tait, Nigel G; Lerner, David N

    2007-04-01

    MTBE, a fuel oxygenate added to gasoline in parts of the USA, appears to have imposed significant adverse impacts on groundwater. In the UK, the impacts of MTBE are not well known in part because insufficient data has been presented to allow an accurate assessment. With the recognition of urban groundwater as a potentially valuable resource due to the growing pressure on rural groundwater, there is need for pollution risks to urban groundwater to be evaluated for contaminants such as MTBE. This paper presents the application of a risk-based water management tool called Borehole Optimisation System (BOS) in the evaluation of the risk of MTBE to urban groundwater at city scale using Nottingham city as our case study. The risk model was validated by comparison of its predictions with observations of MTBE detections for about 1100 boreholes in England and Wales. The output of the risk analysis was the production of a map showing the predicted MTBE concentration at all locations in the city. The results indicate that MTBE does not currently pose a major risk to urban groundwater although there may be a potential risk to groundwater in the southern part of the city where most industries are concentrated.

  19. A methodology for evaluating the reliability and risk of structures under complex service environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1990-01-01

    The theoretical basis and numerical implementation of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress; Cruse et al., 1988), a computer code for probabilistic structural analyses of aerospace components, are described, with an emphasis on the use of NESSUS for reliability and risk assessment. Topics addressed include the structure of NESSUS, the material-properties model, computational procedures, probabilistic models of fatigue-crack initiation, risk/cost evaluation, fatigue-fracture analyses, and fatigue-crack propagation. Numerical results from typical applications are presented in extensive graphs and briefly characterized; the usefulness of NESSUS predictions for establishing inspection and retirement schedules and for component certification is indicated.

  20. A methodology for evaluating the reliability and risk of structures under complex service environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1990-01-01

    The theoretical basis and numerical implementation of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), a computer code for probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components, are described, with an emphasis on the use of NESSUS for reliability and risk assessment. Topics addressed include the structure of probabilistic models of fatigue-crack initiation, risk/cost evaluation, fatigue-fracture analysis, and fatigue-crack initiation. Numerical results from typical applications are presented in graphs and briefly characterized. The usefulness of NESSUS predictions for establishing inspection and retirement schedules and for component certification is indicated.

  1. Beyond the SYNTAX score--advantages and limitations of other risk assessment systems in left main percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Capodanno, Davide

    2013-01-01

    Risk stratification is an emerging topic in the modern management of patients with left main disease referred for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Recent years have witnessed an explosive multiplication of risk models for prognostic stratification in complex PCI. Many of this models deal with modification of the angiographic SYNTAX score, or seek to overcome its known pitfalls and limitations, including lack of clinical and functional information, inter- and intra-observer variabilities, and poor calibration. Risk scoring systems beyond the SYNTAX score may be classified into angiographic (residual SYNTAX score, coronary artery bypass grafting SYNTAX score), clinical (EuroSCORE I and II, ACEF score and modified ACEF scores), combined clinical and angiographic (Global Risk Classification, Clinical SYNTAX score, logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, SYNTAX score II) and functional (Functional SYNTAX score). This article reviews current concepts in risk modeling and explores the advantages and limitations of the alternatives to the SYNTAX score in patients undergoing left main PCI. 

  2. Evaluation of eye injury risk from projectile shooting toys using the focus headform - biomed 2009.

    PubMed

    Bisplinghoff, Jill A; Duma, Stefan M

    2009-01-01

    Half of eye injuries in the United States are caused by a blunt impact and more specifically, eye injuries effecting children often result from projectile shooting toys. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of eye injuries of currently available projectile shooting toys. In order to assess the risk of each toy, a Facial and Ocular Countermeasure Safety (FOCUS) headform was used to measure the force applied to the eye during each hit for a total of 18 tests. The selected toys included a dart gun, a foam launcher, and a ball launcher. The force ranged from 4-93 N and was analyzed using the injury risk function for globe rupture for the FOCUS headform. Projectile characteristics were also examined using normalized energy to determine risk of corneal abrasion, hyphema, lens dislocation, retinal damage and globe rupture. It was found that the three toys tested produced peak loads corresponding with risk of globe rupture between 0% and 17.3%. The normalized energy results show no risk of hyphema, lens dislocation, retinal damage or globe rupture and a maximum risk of corneal abrasion of 5.9%. This study concludes that although there are many eye injuries caused by projectiles, the selected toys show a very low risk of eye injury.

  3. Evaluation of legal liability for technological risks in view of requirements for peaceful coexistence and progress.

    PubMed

    Zandvoort, Henk

    2011-06-01

    Legal liability for risk-generating technological activities is evaluated in view of requirements that are necessary for peaceful human coexistence and progress in order to show possibilities for improvement. The requirements imply, given that political decision making about the activities proceeds on the basis of majority rule, that legal liability should be unconditional (absolute, strict) and unlimited (full). We analyze actual liability in international law for various risk-generating technological activities, to conclude that nowhere is the standard of unconditional and unlimited liability fully met. Apart from that there are enormous differences. Although significant international liability legislation is in place for some risk-generating technological activities, legislation is virtually absent for others. We discuss fundamental possibilities and limitations of liability and private insurance to secure credible and ethically sound risk assessment and risk management practices. The limitations stem from problems of establishing a causal link between an activity and a harm; compensating irreparable harm; financial warranty; moral hazard in insurance and in organizations; and discounting future damage to present value. As our requirements call for prior agreement among all who are subjected to the risks of an activity about the settlement of these difficult problems, precautionary ex ante regulation of risk-generating activities may be a more attractive option, either combined with liability stipulations or not. However, if ex ante regulation is not based on the consent of all subjected to the risks, it remains that the basis of liability in the law should be unconditional and unlimited liability.

  4. Reliability and Validity of Observational Risk Screening in Evaluating Dynamic Knee Valgus

    PubMed Central

    Ekegren, Christina L.; Miller, William C.; Celebrini, Richard G.; Eng, Janice J.; MacIntyre, Donna L.

    2012-01-01

    Study Design Nonexperimental methodological study. Objectives To determine the interrater and intrarater reliability and validity of using observational risk screening guidelines to evaluate dynamic knee valgus. Background A deficiency in the neuromuscular control of the hip has been identified as a key risk factor for non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in post pubescent females. This deficiency can manifest itself as a valgus knee alignment during tasks involving hip and knee flexion. There are currently no scientifically tested methods to screen for dynamic knee valgus in the clinic or on the field. Methods Three physiotherapists used observational risk screening guidelines to rate 40 adolescent female soccer players according to their risk of ACL injury. The rating was based on the amount of dynamic knee valgus observed on a drop jump landing. Ratings were evaluated for intrarater and interrater agreement using kappa coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of ratings were evaluated by comparing observational ratings with measurements obtained using 3-dimensional (3D) motion analysis. Results Kappa coefficients for intrarater and interrater agreement ranged from 0.75 to 0.85, indicating that ratings were reasonably consistent over time and between physiotherapists. Sensitivity values were inadequate, ranging from 67–87%. This indicated that raters failed to detect up to a third of “truly high risk” individuals. Specificity values ranged from 60–72% which was considered adequate for the purposes of the screen. Conclusion Observational risk screening is a practical and cost-effective method of screening for ACL injury risk. Rater agreement and specificity were acceptable for this method but sensitivity was not. To detect a greater proportion of individuals at risk of ACL injury, coaches and clinicians should ensure that they include additional tests for other high risk characteristics in their screening protocols. PMID:19721212

  5. Evaluation of the predictability of real-time crash risk models.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei

    2016-09-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the predictability of crash risk models that were developed using high-resolution real-time traffic data. More specifically the present study sought answers to the following questions: (a) how to evaluate the predictability of a real-time crash risk model; and (b) how to improve the predictability of a real-time crash risk model. The predictability is defined as the crash probability given the crash precursor identified by the crash risk model. An equation was derived based on the Bayes' theorem for estimating approximately the predictability of crash risk models. The estimated predictability was then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the threshold of crash precursors, the matched and unmatched case-control design, and the control-to-case ratio on the predictability of crash risk models. It was found that: (a) the predictability of a crash risk model can be measured as the product of prior crash probability and the ratio between sensitivity and false alarm rate; (b) there is a trade-off between the predictability and sensitivity of a real-time crash risk model; (c) for a given level of sensitivity, the predictability of the crash risk model that is developed using the unmatched case-controlled sample is always better than that of the model developed using the matched case-controlled sample; and (d) when the control-to-case ratio is beyond 4:1, the increase in control-to-case ratio does not lead to clear improvements in predictability.

  6. Risk-based evaluation of total petroleum hydrocarbons in vapor intrusion studies.

    PubMed

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-06-13

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum.

  7. Risk-based evaluation of total petroleum hydrocarbons in vapor intrusion studies.

    PubMed

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-06-01

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

  8. Ecological Risk Assessment for Selenium in the Evaluation of Restoration Alternatives for Salton Sea, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohlendorf, H. M.; Pulley, T. S.; Sample, B. E.; Long, S. P.; Byron, E. R.; Nielsen, K. J.

    2006-12-01

    Selenium is a chemical of ecological concern at the Salton Sea because it occurs at elevated concentrations in water, sediment, and biota of this terminal lake in southern California. The State of California is required to evaluate alternatives for restoration of long-term stable aquatic and shoreline habitats for the historic levels and diversity of fish and wildlife that depend on the Salton Sea and for protection of water quality. Ecological risks associated with selenium were evaluated under eight restoration alternatives (as well as current conditions and no action) in a programmatic-level environmental impact report. Varying types and configurations of marine, estuarine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats would exist under the different alternatives. Ecological risks were associated primarily with existing and future selenium concentrations in sediment and inflow waters. In addition to completing an ecological risk assessment for each of the habitat types in each of the alternatives, we developed an approach for ranking risk among alternatives based on the combination of habitats, representative receptors evaluated, and area of each habitat. Results of the ranking enable a comparison of alternatives with respect to their expected selenium-associated risks for fish and aquatic birds (the main receptors of concern).

  9. [Psychosocial Risk Evaluation in the Workplace: Expert-based Development of a Checklist for Occupational Physicians].

    PubMed

    Weigl, M; Müller, A; Angerer, P; Petru, R

    2016-03-01

    The implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at the workplace often fails in practice. One reason is the lack of competence of those who are in charge of the process. We present a checklist for the effective implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at workplace. This tool shall support occupational physicians in the preparation, planning and implementation of a psychosocial risks assessment process. Based on a stepwise development and validation process, specific steps and factors for the successful implementation were identified qualitatively with 15 occupational physicians and experts. This was conducted in a 2-stage Delphi study. In the following, the identified steps and factors were transferred into a checklist. Subsequently, the checklist was evaluated in a focus group of occupational physicians (user evaluation). Thereafter, the contents were subjected to an expert evaluation. Our checklist for the effective implementation of the process of psychosocial risk management in the workplace aims to strengthen the competence of occupational physicians, especially in the implementation of risk assessments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). PMID:26335655

  10. Intervening with at-risk youth: evaluation of the youth empowerment and support program.

    PubMed

    Moody, Kimberly A; Childs, Janis C; Sepples, Susan B

    2003-01-01

    This study evaluated a community-based intervention, the Youth Empowerment and Support Program (YES-P), a theoretically-based program designed to decrease drug use and strengthen connections to school in at-risk youth living in high-risk environments. The YES-P included several interventions, such as providing mentor support and social skills training; growing a positive peer culture; and developing youth in leadership roles for community service. These interventions were delivered by 10 nursing students in a weekly, after school, 2-hour, group activity for 20 weeks for 13 inner-city youth ages 10-12 years (7 girls, 6 boys). One girl identified herself as Hispanic and the others as Caucasian. Using a pre/post one-group design, data were collected in 1999 from program participants to evaluate the YES-P. Results of a 1-year pilot study suggest that the multilevel interventions were associated with positive effects on at-risk youth. In particular, respondents at the posttest reported higher levels of self-esteem, mentor support, positive peer bonding, social skills attainment, and school attachment. Attitudes against underage drug use decreased from pre-test scores revealing areas for strengthening the program. These results lend empirical support to the positive evaluation of the YES-P with at-risk youth living in high-risk environments.

  11. Environmental risks in the developing world: exposure indicators for evaluating interventions, programmes, and policies

    PubMed Central

    Ezzati, M.; Utzinger, J.; Cairncross, S.; Cohen, A.; Singer, B.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Monitoring and empirical evaluation are essential components of evidence based public health policies and programmes. Consequently, there is a growing interest in monitoring of, and indicators for, major environmental health risks, particularly in the developing world. Current large scale data collection efforts are generally disconnected from micro-scale studies in health sciences, which in turn have insufficiently investigated the behavioural and socioeconomic factors that influence exposure. Study design: A basic framework is proposed for development of indicators of exposure to environmental health risks that would facilitate the (a) assessment of the health effects of risk factors, (b) design and evaluation of interventions and programmes to deliver the interventions, and (c) appraisal and quantification of inequalities in health effects of risk factors, and benefits of intervention programmes and policies. Specific emphasis is put on the features of environmental risks that should guide the choice of indicators, in particular the interactions of technology, the environment, and human behaviour in determining exposure. The indicators are divided into four categories: (a) access and infrastructure, (b) technology, (c) agents and vectors, and (d) behaviour. The study used water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from solid fuels, urban ambient air pollution, and malaria as illustrative examples for this framework. Conclusions: Organised and systematic indicator selection and monitoring can provide an evidence base for design and implementation of more effective and equitable technological interventions, delivery programmes, and policies for environmental health risks in resource poor settings. PMID:15598721

  12. Dipyridamole-thallium scanning in patients undergoing vascular surgery. Optimizing preoperative evaluation of cardiac risk

    SciTech Connect

    Eagle, K.A.; Singer, D.E.; Brewster, D.C.; Darling, R.C.; Mulley, A.G.; Boucher, C.A.

    1987-04-24

    Dipyridamole-thallium imaging has been suggested as a method of preoperatively assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing major surgery. To define more clearly its proper role in preoperative assessment, we prospectively evaluated 111 patients undergoing vascular surgery. In the first set of 61 patients, our data confirmed the value of preoperative dipyridamole-thallium scanning in identifying the patients who suffered postoperative ischemic events. Events occurred in eight of 18 patients with reversible defects on preoperative imaging, compared with no events in 43 patients with no thallium redistribution (confidence interval for the risk difference: 0.624, 0.256). The results also suggested that clinical factors might allow identification of a low-risk subset of patients. To test the hypothesis that patients with no evidence of congestive heart failure, angina, prior myocardial infarction, or diabetes do not require further preoperative testing, we evaluated an additional 50 patients having vascular procedures. None of the 23 without the clinical markers had untoward outcomes, while ten of 27 patients with one or more of these clinical markers suffered postoperative ischemic events (confidence interval for the risk difference: 0.592, 0.148). In the clinical high-risk subset, further risk stratification is achieved with dipyridamole-thallium scanning.

  13. Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2012-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

  14. Evaluation of the risk factors for febrile neutropenia associated with hematological malignancy.

    PubMed

    Nakagawa, Yasunori; Suzuki, Kenshi; Masaoka, Toru

    2009-06-01

    Febrile neutropenia (FN) can frequently become a very serious problem. In 2002, Klastersky and colleagues established the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score, which consisted of risk factors for conditions that included solid tumors. However, hematopoietic tumors, in comparison to solid tumors, are plagued by such problems as the quantity and quality of abnormalities associated with leukocytes and neutrophils and the requirement for higher dosages of both radio- and chemotherapy. FN is a complication associated with hematological malignancies that can lead to a fatal outcome, but it is avoidable if the appropriate preventive treatment is performed at an early stage. The subjects of the present study consisted of 354 patients with hematopoietic malignancies who were treated at the Japanese Red Cross Medical Center Hospital, Tokyo, between August 2000 and September 2004. They were retrospectively evaluated for the risk factors of FN by applying Wilcoxon's rank sum test. A scoring index was defined and the patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups before evaluation. The following nine risk factors, which may significantly influence the relationship between the time required for defervescence and the duration of neutropenia - age; hematological diseases; the leukocyte count during the febrile period; the reduction in leukocyte count per day before the onset of FN; the prophylactic administration of antimycotic agents; sterilization of the intestinal tract; and urine albumin content, creatine level, and C-reactive protein (CRP) level - were expressed in points and their sum was termed risk points. The range of risk points was classified as 0-3 and 4-9. The time required for defervescence was 5.1 days when the risk points were in the range of 0-3 and 8.1 days when the points were in the range of 4-9. These figures were distributed normally and there was a significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.0016). FN

  15. Evaluation of the risk factors for febrile neutropenia associated with hematological malignancy.

    PubMed

    Nakagawa, Yasunori; Suzuki, Kenshi; Masaoka, Toru

    2009-06-01

    Febrile neutropenia (FN) can frequently become a very serious problem. In 2002, Klastersky and colleagues established the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score, which consisted of risk factors for conditions that included solid tumors. However, hematopoietic tumors, in comparison to solid tumors, are plagued by such problems as the quantity and quality of abnormalities associated with leukocytes and neutrophils and the requirement for higher dosages of both radio- and chemotherapy. FN is a complication associated with hematological malignancies that can lead to a fatal outcome, but it is avoidable if the appropriate preventive treatment is performed at an early stage. The subjects of the present study consisted of 354 patients with hematopoietic malignancies who were treated at the Japanese Red Cross Medical Center Hospital, Tokyo, between August 2000 and September 2004. They were retrospectively evaluated for the risk factors of FN by applying Wilcoxon's rank sum test. A scoring index was defined and the patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups before evaluation. The following nine risk factors, which may significantly influence the relationship between the time required for defervescence and the duration of neutropenia - age; hematological diseases; the leukocyte count during the febrile period; the reduction in leukocyte count per day before the onset of FN; the prophylactic administration of antimycotic agents; sterilization of the intestinal tract; and urine albumin content, creatine level, and C-reactive protein (CRP) level - were expressed in points and their sum was termed risk points. The range of risk points was classified as 0-3 and 4-9. The time required for defervescence was 5.1 days when the risk points were in the range of 0-3 and 8.1 days when the points were in the range of 4-9. These figures were distributed normally and there was a significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.0016). FN

  16. Risk Stratification for Athletes and Adventurers in High-Altitude Environments: Recommendations for Preparticipation Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Aaron D; McIntosh, Scott E; Nyberg, Andy; Powell, Amy P; Schoene, Robert B; Hackett, Peter

    2015-12-01

    High-altitude athletes and adventurers face a number of environmental and medical risks. Clinicians often advise participants or guiding agencies before or during these experiences. Preparticipation evaluation (PPE) has the potential to reduce risk of high-altitude illnesses in athletes and adventurers. Specific conditions susceptible to high-altitude exacerbation also important to evaluate include cardiovascular and lung diseases. Recommendations by which to counsel individuals before participation in altitude sports and adventures are few and of limited focus. We reviewed the literature, collected expert opinion, and augmented principles of a traditional sport PPE to accommodate the high-altitude wilderness athlete/adventurer. We present our findings with specific recommendations on risk stratification during a PPE for the high-altitude athlete/adventurer.

  17. Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

  18. Neurophysiologic Evaluation of Early Cognitive Development in High-Risk Infants and Toddlers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    deRegnier, Raye-Ann

    2005-01-01

    New knowledge of the perceptual, discriminative, and memory capabilities of very young infants has opened the door to further evaluation of these abilities in infants who have risk factors for cognitive impairments. A neurophysiologic technique that has been very useful in this regard is the recording of event-related potentials (ERPs). The…

  19. A Formative Evaluation of the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk Coaching Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olson, Jonathan R.; Smith, Burgess; Hawkey, Kyle R.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Borden, Lynne M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we describe the results of a formative evaluation of a coaching model designed to support recipients of funding through the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) initiative. Results indicate that CYFAR coaches draw from a variety of types of coaching and that CYFAR principle investigators (PIs) are generally satisfied with…

  20. Evaluating Programs for At-Risk Adolescents: Toward an Outcome-Based Assessment Framework

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sloat, Elizabeth A.; Audas, Richard P.; Willms, J. Douglas

    2007-01-01

    This article presents an outcome-based model for evaluating school and community programs serving at-risk adolescents, and a cost-effective technique for comparing the progress of youth receiving an intervention with youth in a pseudocontrol group. The outcomes considered most important for success were derived from the literature pertaining to…

  1. Evaluation of a Training Program for Street Children and Adolescents At Risk in Brazil.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandeira, Denise R.; And Others

    An experience in evaluating a program which is designed to help high risk adolescents is described. The program attempts to develop basic work and social skills of adolescents (N=40) living in slums or on the streets in Brazil. Psychological and social effects of the program were assessed by means of interviews and psychological tests…

  2. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. 319.59-3 Section 319.59-3 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., Estonia, Falkland Islands, Georgia, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Italy,...

  3. FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR USE IN SAFETY OR RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT

    Proposed applications of increasingly sophisticated biologically-based computational models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, raise the issue of how to evaluate whether the models are adequate for proposed uses including safety or risk ...

  4. Discomfort Intolerance: Evaluation of a Potential Risk Factor for Anxiety Psychopathology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Norman B.; Richey, J. Anthony; Cromer, Kiara R.; Buckner, Julia D.

    2007-01-01

    Discomfort intolerance, defined as an individual difference in the capacity to tolerate unpleasant bodily sensations, is a construct recently posited as a risk factor for panic and anxiety psychopathology. The present report used a biological challenge procedure to evaluate whether discomfort intolerance predicts fearful responding beyond the…

  5. Evaluation of an Alcohol Risk Reduction Program (PRIME for Life) in Young Swedish Military Conscripts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallgren, Mats A.; Kallmen, Hakan; Leifman, Hakan; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Andreasson, Sven

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the PRIME for Life risk reduction program in reducing alcohol consumption and improving knowledge and attitudes towards alcohol use in male Swedish military conscripts, aged 18 to 22 years. Design/methodology/approach: A quasi-experimental design was used in which 1,371…

  6. Some Methodological Problems, Solutions and Findings from Evaluating Risk Reduction Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Harris K.; Di Nitto, Diana

    1982-01-01

    Reports three methodological problems found in evaluating five risk reduction projects in Florida. Found that activities aimed at producing positive self-awareness and exposure to rewarding nondrug activities taught with a mixture of didactic and discussion methods and exercises are best. (Author/JAC)

  7. Evaluation of the "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-Graders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liller, Karen D.; Perrin, Karen; Nearns, Jodi; Pesce, Karen; Crane, Nancy B.; Gonzalez, Robin R.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the MORE HEALTH "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-graders in Pinellas County, Florida. Six schools representative of various socioeconomic levels were selected as the test sites. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected. A total of 433 matched pretests/posttests were used to…

  8. EVALUATING A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL FOR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EVALUATING A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL FOR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT. L H Clark1, H A Barton1, and R W Setzer1. 1US EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.

    Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are increasingly being used in eva...

  9. 76 FR 57767 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-16

    ... appearing in the Federal Register on September 1, 2011 (76 FR 54507), that requested public comment on Draft... Register document 2011-22422, published September 1, 2011 (76 FR 54507), in the second column, under the... COMMISSION Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations...

  10. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change.

  11. Extensions of criteria for evaluating risk prediction models for public health applications.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2013-04-01

    We recently proposed two novel criteria to assess the usefulness of risk prediction models for public health applications. The proportion of cases followed, PCF(p), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion p of individuals in the population at highest risk. The proportion needed to follow-up, PNF(q), is the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion q of those destined to become cases will be followed (Pfeiffer, R.M. and Gail, M.H., 2011. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models. Biometrics 67, 1057-1065). Here, we extend these criteria in two ways. First, we introduce two new criteria by integrating PCF and PNF over a range of values of q or p to obtain iPCF, the integrated PCF, and iPNF, the integrated PNF. A key assumption in the previous work was that the risk model is well calibrated. This assumption also underlies novel estimates of iPCF and iPNF based on observed risks in a population alone. The second extension is to propose and study estimates of PCF, PNF, iPCF, and iPNF that are consistent even if the risk models are not well calibrated. These new estimates are obtained from case-control data when the outcome prevalence in the population is known, and from cohort data, with baseline covariates and observed health outcomes. We study the efficiency of the various estimates and propose and compare tests for comparing two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  12. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. PMID:26318687

  13. Considerations in the evaluation and determination of minimal risk in pragmatic clinical trials

    PubMed Central

    Lantos, John D.; Wendler, David; Septimus, Edward; Wahba, Sarita; Madigan, Rosemary; Bliss, Geraldine

    2015-01-01

    The classification system for categorizing the riskiness of a clinical trial is largely defined by the body of federal regulations known as the Common Rule (45 CFR 46, Subpart A) and by regulations governing the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) codified in 21 CFR 50. This rule is applied according to the interpretation of institutional review boards (IRBs) charged with overseeing the research. If a clinical trial is determined by an IRB to constitute “minimal risk,” there are important practical implications: the IRB may allow waiver or alteration of the informed consent process; the study may be carried out in certain vulnerable populations; or the study may be reviewed by IRBs using an expedited process. However, it is unclear how the risk levels of pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) should be assessed. Such trials typically compare existing, widely used medical therapies or interventions in the setting of routine clinical practice. Some of the therapies may be considered risky of themselves but the study comparing them may or may not add to that pre-existing level of risk. In this paper, we examine current research regulations and common interpretations of those regulations and suggest that current interpretation and application of regulations governing minimal-risk classification are marked by a high degree of variability and confusion, which in turn may ultimately harm patients by delaying or hindering potentially beneficial research. We advocate for a clear differentiation between the risks associated with a given therapy and the incremental risk incurred during research evaluating those therapies as a basic principle for evaluating the risk of a clinical study. We then examine two studies that incorporate aspects of PCTs and consider how various factors including patient perspectives, clinical equipoise, practice variation, and research methods such as cluster randomization contribute to current and evolving concepts of minimal risk, and how this

  14. Identification by ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries of high-risk subjects missed by three validated cardiovascular disease risk algorithms.

    PubMed

    Postley, John E; Luo, Yanting; Wong, Nathan D; Gardin, Julius M

    2015-11-15

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events are the leading cause of death in the United States and globally. Traditional global risk algorithms may miss 50% of patients who experience ASCVD events. Noninvasive ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at high risk for ASCVD events. We examined the ability of different global risk algorithms to identify subjects with femoral and/or carotid plaques found by ultrasound. The study population consisted of 1,464 asymptomatic adults (39.8% women) aged 23 to 87 years without previous evidence of ASCVD who had ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries. Three ASCVD risk algorithms (10-year Framingham Risk Score [FRS], 30-year FRS, and lifetime risk) were compared for the 939 subjects who met the algorithm age criteria. The frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque was 18.3% in the total group and 14.8% in the risk algorithm groups (n = 939) without a significant difference between genders in frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque. Those identified as high risk by the lifetime risk algorithm included the most men and women who had plaques either femoral or carotid (59% and 55%) but had lower specificity because the proportion of subjects who actually had plaques in the high-risk group was lower (50% and 35%) than in those at high risk defined by the FRS algorithms. In conclusion, ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at risk of ASCVD events missed by traditional risk-predicting algorithms. The large proportion of subjects with femoral plaque only supports the use of including both femoral and carotid arteries in ultrasound evaluation.

  15. Evaluation of factors affecting stakeholder risk perception of contaminated sediment disposal in Oslo harbor.

    PubMed

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Ellen, Gerald Jan; Duijn, Mike

    2011-01-01

    The management of environmental pollution has changed considerably since the growth of environmental awareness in the late 1960s. The general increased environmental concern and involvement of stakeholders in today's environmental issues may enhance the need to consider risk in a much broader social context rather than just as an estimate of ecological hazard. Risk perception and the constructs and images of risks held by stakeholders and society are important items to address in the management of environmental projects, including the management of contaminated sediments. Here we present a retrospective case study that evaluates factors affecting stakeholder risk perception of contaminated sediment disposal that occurred during a remediation project in Oslo harbor, Norway. The choice to dispose dredged contaminated sediments in a confined aquatic disposal (CAD) site rather than at a land disposal site has received a lot of societal attention, attracted large media coverage, and caused many public discussions. A mixed method approach is used to investigate how risk perceptive affective factors (PAF), socio-demographic aspects, and participatory aspects have influenced the various stakeholders' preferences for the two different disposal options. Risk perceptive factors such as transparency in the decision making process and controllability of the disposal options have been identified as important for risk perception. The results of the study also support the view that there is no sharp distinction in risk perception between experts and other parties and emphasizes the importance of addressing risk perceptive affective factors in similar environmental decision-making processes. Indeed, PAFs such as transparency, openness, and information are fundamental to address in sensitive environmental decisions, such as sediment disposal alternatives, in order to progress to more technical questions such as the controllability and safety.

  16. Application of a score system to evaluate the risk of malnutrition in a multiple hospital setting

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709

  17. Evaluation of Major Online Diabetes Risk Calculators and Computerized Predictive Models.

    PubMed

    Stiglic, Gregor; Pajnkihar, Majda

    2015-01-01

    Classical paper-and-pencil based risk assessment questionnaires are often accompanied by the online versions of the questionnaire to reach a wider population. This study focuses on the loss, especially in risk estimation performance, that can be inflicted by direct transformation from the paper to online versions of risk estimation calculators by ignoring the possibilities of more complex and accurate calculations that can be performed using the online calculators. We empirically compare the risk estimation performance between four major diabetes risk calculators and two, more advanced, predictive models. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999-2012 was used to evaluate the performance of detecting diabetes and pre-diabetes. American Diabetes Association risk test achieved the best predictive performance in category of classical paper-and-pencil based tests with an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.699 for undiagnosed diabetes (0.662 for pre-diabetes) and 47% (47% for pre-diabetes) persons selected for screening. Our results demonstrate a significant difference in performance with additional benefits for a lower number of persons selected for screening when statistical methods are used. The best AUC overall was obtained in diabetes risk prediction using logistic regression with AUC of 0.775 (0.734) and an average 34% (48%) persons selected for screening. However, generalized boosted regression models might be a better option from the economical point of view as the number of selected persons for screening of 30% (47%) lies significantly lower for diabetes risk assessment in comparison to logistic regression (p < 0.001), with a significantly higher AUC (p < 0.001) of 0.774 (0.740) for the pre-diabetes group. Our results demonstrate a serious lack of predictive performance in four major online diabetes risk calculators. Therefore, one should take great care and consider optimizing the online versions of questionnaires that were

  18. Evaluation of Major Online Diabetes Risk Calculators and Computerized Predictive Models.

    PubMed

    Stiglic, Gregor; Pajnkihar, Majda

    2015-01-01

    Classical paper-and-pencil based risk assessment questionnaires are often accompanied by the online versions of the questionnaire to reach a wider population. This study focuses on the loss, especially in risk estimation performance, that can be inflicted by direct transformation from the paper to online versions of risk estimation calculators by ignoring the possibilities of more complex and accurate calculations that can be performed using the online calculators. We empirically compare the risk estimation performance between four major diabetes risk calculators and two, more advanced, predictive models. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999-2012 was used to evaluate the performance of detecting diabetes and pre-diabetes. American Diabetes Association risk test achieved the best predictive performance in category of classical paper-and-pencil based tests with an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.699 for undiagnosed diabetes (0.662 for pre-diabetes) and 47% (47% for pre-diabetes) persons selected for screening. Our results demonstrate a significant difference in performance with additional benefits for a lower number of persons selected for screening when statistical methods are used. The best AUC overall was obtained in diabetes risk prediction using logistic regression with AUC of 0.775 (0.734) and an average 34% (48%) persons selected for screening. However, generalized boosted regression models might be a better option from the economical point of view as the number of selected persons for screening of 30% (47%) lies significantly lower for diabetes risk assessment in comparison to logistic regression (p < 0.001), with a significantly higher AUC (p < 0.001) of 0.774 (0.740) for the pre-diabetes group. Our results demonstrate a serious lack of predictive performance in four major online diabetes risk calculators. Therefore, one should take great care and consider optimizing the online versions of questionnaires that were

  19. Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

    PubMed Central

    Andersson, Neil; Mitchell, Steven

    2006-01-01

    Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0), through risk analysis (levels 1–3) to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4). Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity. PMID:16390549

  20. Cancer risk evaluation of brick kiln workers exposed to dust bound PAHs in Punjab province (Pakistan).

    PubMed

    Kamal, Atif; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Martellini, Tania; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2014-09-15

    Principal objective of this study was to evaluate the health risks of brick kiln workers to dust bound PAHs exposure in Punjab province (Pakistan). To this aim, surface dust samples were collected from brick kiln units located in Chung Khurd (Lahore city), Gujranwala city and Sohra village (in the vicinity of Gujranwala). The highest ΣPAH levels were measured in the dust samples collected in Sohdra village (mean 2578 ng g(-1) d.w., range 302-6757 ng g(-1) d.w.) followed by Gujranwala city (mean 957, range 16.1-1963 ng g(-1) d.w.) and Chung Khurd (mean 882, range 692-1007 ng g(-1) d.w.). Source identification using diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis identified coal and wood combustion as the major PAHs sources. The cancer risk model (CR-Model 1) and the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk model (ILCR-Model 2) were used to evaluate the cancer risk assessment via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways. Both models suggested that brick kiln workers (including adults and children) were exposed to high-potential carcinogenic risk via both ingestion and dermal contact pathways during the brick making process. This study also emphasizes the need for pollution control in the brick kiln industry of Pakistan.

  1. Cancer risk evaluation of brick kiln workers exposed to dust bound PAHs in Punjab province (Pakistan).

    PubMed

    Kamal, Atif; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Martellini, Tania; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2014-09-15

    Principal objective of this study was to evaluate the health risks of brick kiln workers to dust bound PAHs exposure in Punjab province (Pakistan). To this aim, surface dust samples were collected from brick kiln units located in Chung Khurd (Lahore city), Gujranwala city and Sohra village (in the vicinity of Gujranwala). The highest ΣPAH levels were measured in the dust samples collected in Sohdra village (mean 2578 ng g(-1) d.w., range 302-6757 ng g(-1) d.w.) followed by Gujranwala city (mean 957, range 16.1-1963 ng g(-1) d.w.) and Chung Khurd (mean 882, range 692-1007 ng g(-1) d.w.). Source identification using diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis identified coal and wood combustion as the major PAHs sources. The cancer risk model (CR-Model 1) and the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk model (ILCR-Model 2) were used to evaluate the cancer risk assessment via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways. Both models suggested that brick kiln workers (including adults and children) were exposed to high-potential carcinogenic risk via both ingestion and dermal contact pathways during the brick making process. This study also emphasizes the need for pollution control in the brick kiln industry of Pakistan. PMID:24973936

  2. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination: a multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach based on DRASTIC model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiuwen; Yang, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information.

  3. Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

  4. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  5. Determining Risk - How to Evaluate the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.

    2011-12-01

    As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high

  6. Evaluating the Risks of High Altitude Travel in Chronic Liver Disease Patients.

    PubMed

    Luks, Andrew M; Swenson, Erik R

    2015-06-01

    Luks, Andrew M., and Erik R. Swenson. Clinician's Corner: Evaluating the risks of high altitude travel in chronic liver disease patients. High Alt Med Biol 16:80-88, 2015.--With improvements in the quality of health care, people with chronic medical conditions are experiencing better quality of life and increasingly participating in a wider array of activities, including travel to high altitude. Whenever people with chronic diseases travel to this environment, it is important to consider whether the physiologic responses to hypobaric hypoxia will interact with the underlying medical condition such that the risk of acute altitude illness is increased or the medical condition itself may worsen. This review considers these questions as they pertain to patients with chronic liver disease. While the limited available evidence suggests there is no evidence of liver injury or dysfunction in normal individuals traveling as high as 5000 m, there is reason to suspect that two groups of cirrhosis patients are at increased risk for problems, hepatopulmonary syndrome patients, who are at risk for severe hypoxemia following ascent, and portopulmonary hypertension patients who may be at risk for high altitude pulmonary edema and acute right ventricular dysfunction. While liver transplant patients may tolerate high altitude exposure without difficulty, no information is available regarding the risks of long-term residence at altitude with chronic liver disease. All travelers with cirrhosis require careful pre-travel evaluation to identify conditions that might predispose to problems at altitude and develop risk mitigation strategies for these issues. Patients also require detailed counseling about recognition, prevention, and treatment of acute altitude illness and may require different medication regimens to prevent or treat altitude illness than used in healthy individuals.

  7. Evaluation of the pressure ulcers risk scales with critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study 1

    PubMed Central

    Borghardt, Andressa Tomazini; do Prado, Thiago Nascimento; de Araújo, Thiago Moura; Rogenski, Noemi Marisa Brunet; Bringuente, Maria Edla de Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: to evaluate the accuracy of the Braden and Waterlow risk assessment scales in critically ill inpatients. METHOD: this prospective cohort study, with 55 patients in intensive care units, was performed through evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical variables, through the application of the scales (Braden and Waterlow) upon admission and every 48 hours; and through the evaluation and classification of the ulcers into categories. RESULTS: the pressure ulcer incidence was 30.9%, with the Braden and Waterlow scales presenting high sensitivity (41% and 71%) and low specificity (21% and 47%) respectively in the three evaluations. The cut off scores found in the first, second and third evaluations were 12, 12 and 11 in the Braden scale, and 16, 15 and 14 in the Waterlow scale. CONCLUSION: the Braden scale was shown to be a good screening instrument, and the Waterlow scale proved to have better predictive power. PMID:25806628

  8. Evaluation of a worksite wellness program designed to reduce cardiovascular risks.

    PubMed

    Roblin, Douglas W; Robinson, Brandi E; Benjamin, Stacey A

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated a multifactorial worksite wellness program designed to improve lifestyle and reduce cardiovascular risks at a small professional services company. Program participation (N = 60 employees) consisted of an enrollment session, a 6-month period of wellness program activities, and a disenrollment session. Lifestyle and biometric measures were obtained at enrollment and disenrollment. Over 6-months, percentage of dietary fat intake decreased (P < .01); daily fruit and vegetable servings and fiber intake increased (P = .02); systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased (P = .04 and 0.01, respectively), and high-density lipoprotein increased (P < .01). This worksite wellness program achieved meaningful improvements in dietary intake and reduction in cardiovascular risks. PMID:24402067

  9. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  10. Evaluation of dysphagia risk, nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly patients with Alzheimer's

    PubMed Central

    Goes, Vanessa Fernanda; Mello-Carpes, Pâmela Billig; de Oliveira, Lilian Oliveira; Hack, Jaqueline; Magro, Marcela; Bonini, Juliana Sartori

    2014-01-01

    Objective to evaluate the risk of dysphagia and its relationship with the stage of Alzheimer's Disease, as well as the relationship between the risk of dysphagia and nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly people with Alzheimer's disease. Methods the sample consisted of 30 subjects of both genders with probable Alzheimer's disease. The stage of the disease, nutritional status, energy intake, and risk of dysphagia were assessed. Results it was found that increased risk of dysphagia is associated with the advance in the stages of Alzheimer's disease and that even patients in the early stages of disease have a slight risk of developing dysphagia. No association was found between nutritional status and the risk of dysphagia. High levels of inadequate intake of micronutrients were also verified in the patients. Conclusion an association between dysphagia and the development of Alzheimer's disease was found. The results indicate the need to monitor the presence of dysphagia and the micronutrient intake in patients with Alzheimer's disease. PMID:26107841

  11. Evaluating karst geotechnical risk in the urbanized area of Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvão, Paulo; Halihan, Todd; Hirata, Ricardo

    2015-11-01

    An increase in groundwater consumption in the municipality of Sete Lagoas (Minas Gerais, Brazil) has induced subsidence and collapse in the last three decades. The area is associated with natural karst conditions. The primary objective of this research was to evaluate and identify the potential subsidence or collapse risk zones. Aerial photographs, lithologic well profiles, optical well logs, and geologic mapping were utilized to categorize risk factors influencing karst subsidence and collapse, which were then applied to an index system. The study showed that the majority of the urbanized area overlies mantled limestone from the Sete Lagoas Formation covered with unconsolidated sediments, contained within a graben, resulting in barrier boundaries for groundwater flow. This structure, together with natural karst processes, explains the location of solutionally enlarged bedding-plane conduits and high hydraulic conductivity in the limestone. Five risks zones in the municipality were identified (negligible, low, moderate, considerable, and high risks) related to geologic and hydrologic risk factors. The urbanized area is located largely in the high risk zone where the majority of the collapse features are located. Additional intensive groundwater extraction in that area will likely generate additional events.

  12. Evaluation of high-risk smoking practices used by the homeless.

    PubMed

    Aloot, C B; Vredevoe, D L; Brecht, M L

    1993-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of high-risk smoking practices in a homeless population. High-risk cigarette smoking practices include misuse of tobacco products or alternative methods of cigarette smoking that increase the likelihood of ingestion of toxic substances and infectious agents that can potentiate the hazards associated with cigarette smoking. An 84-item questionnaire was developed by the researcher to measure these practices. Fifty-six male and three female homeless people were interviewed in downtown Los Angeles. The most common high-risk smoking practices were cigarette sharing (86%); smoking cigarettes remade from discarded cigarette butts and filters (71%); smoking cigarettes remade by others (63%); smoking discarded cigarette butts (63%); blocking filter vents (24%); using things other than tobacco, such as discarded cigarette filters and drugs, in remaking cigarettes (22%); and smoking discarded cigarette filters (19%). These high-risk smoking practices pose a greater risk of exposure to toxins trapped in filters and tobacco remains and increase the threat of infectious disease transmission. The long-term effects of high-risk smoking practices among the homeless have potential economic implications for society.

  13. Evaluation of the risk of venous thromboembolism after quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among US females.

    PubMed

    Yih, W Katherine; Greene, Sharon K; Zichittella, Lauren; Kulldorff, Martin; Baker, Meghan A; de Jong, Jill L O; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Griffin, Marie R; Jin, Robert; Lin, Nancy D; McMahill-Walraven, Cheryl N; Reidy, Megan; Selvam, Nandini; Selvan, Mano S; Nguyen, Michael D

    2016-01-01

    After the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV4) in 2006, reports suggesting a possible association with venous thromboembolism (VTE) emerged from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Our objective was to determine whether HPV4 increased VTE risk. The subjects were 9-26-year-old female members of five data partners in the FDA's Mini-Sentinel pilot project receiving HPV4 during 2006-2013. The outcome was radiologically confirmed first-ever VTE among potential cases identified by diagnosis codes in administrative data during Days 1-77 after HPV4 vaccination. With a self-controlled risk interval design, we compared counts of first-ever VTE in risk intervals (Days 1-28 and Days 1-7 post-vaccination) and control intervals (Days 36-56 for Dose 1 and Days 36-63 for Doses 2 and 3). Combined hormonal contraceptive use was treated as a potential confounder. The main analyses were: (1) unadjusted for time-varying VTE risk from contraceptive use, (2) unadjusted but restricted to cases without such time-varying risk, and (3) adjusted by incorporating the modeled risk of VTE by week of contraceptive use in the analysis. Of 279 potential VTE cases identified following 1,423,399 HPV4 doses administered, 225 had obtainable charts, and 53 were confirmed first-ever VTE. All 30 with onsets in risk or control intervals had known risk factors for VTE. VTE risk was not elevated in the first 7 or 28 days following any dose of HPV in any analysis (e.g. relative risk estimate (95% CI) from both unrestricted analyses, for all-doses, 28-day risk interval: 0.7 (0.3-1.4)). Temporal scan statistics found no clustering of VTE onsets after any dose. Thus, we found no evidence of an increased risk of VTE associated with HPV4 among 9-26-year-old females. A particular strength of this evaluation was its control for both time-invariant and contraceptive-related time-varying potential confounding. PMID:26549364

  14. Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prince, Mary M.; Gilbert, Stephen J.; Smith, Randall J.; Stayner, Leslie T.

    2003-02-01

    Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly ``screened'' workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added (n=2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.

  15. Evaluation of the risk of venous thromboembolism after quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among US females.

    PubMed

    Yih, W Katherine; Greene, Sharon K; Zichittella, Lauren; Kulldorff, Martin; Baker, Meghan A; de Jong, Jill L O; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Griffin, Marie R; Jin, Robert; Lin, Nancy D; McMahill-Walraven, Cheryl N; Reidy, Megan; Selvam, Nandini; Selvan, Mano S; Nguyen, Michael D

    2016-01-01

    After the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV4) in 2006, reports suggesting a possible association with venous thromboembolism (VTE) emerged from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Our objective was to determine whether HPV4 increased VTE risk. The subjects were 9-26-year-old female members of five data partners in the FDA's Mini-Sentinel pilot project receiving HPV4 during 2006-2013. The outcome was radiologically confirmed first-ever VTE among potential cases identified by diagnosis codes in administrative data during Days 1-77 after HPV4 vaccination. With a self-controlled risk interval design, we compared counts of first-ever VTE in risk intervals (Days 1-28 and Days 1-7 post-vaccination) and control intervals (Days 36-56 for Dose 1 and Days 36-63 for Doses 2 and 3). Combined hormonal contraceptive use was treated as a potential confounder. The main analyses were: (1) unadjusted for time-varying VTE risk from contraceptive use, (2) unadjusted but restricted to cases without such time-varying risk, and (3) adjusted by incorporating the modeled risk of VTE by week of contraceptive use in the analysis. Of 279 potential VTE cases identified following 1,423,399 HPV4 doses administered, 225 had obtainable charts, and 53 were confirmed first-ever VTE. All 30 with onsets in risk or control intervals had known risk factors for VTE. VTE risk was not elevated in the first 7 or 28 days following any dose of HPV in any analysis (e.g. relative risk estimate (95% CI) from both unrestricted analyses, for all-doses, 28-day risk interval: 0.7 (0.3-1.4)). Temporal scan statistics found no clustering of VTE onsets after any dose. Thus, we found no evidence of an increased risk of VTE associated with HPV4 among 9-26-year-old females. A particular strength of this evaluation was its control for both time-invariant and contraceptive-related time-varying potential confounding.

  16. Evaluation of species distribution model algorithms for fine-scale container-breeding mosquito risk prediction.

    PubMed

    Khatchikian, C; Sangermano, F; Kendell, D; Livdahl, T

    2011-09-01

    The present work evaluates the use of species distribution model (SDM) algorithms to classify high densities of small container-breeding Aedes mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) on a fine scale in the Bermuda Islands. Weekly ovitrap data collected by the Department of Health, Bermuda for the years 2006 and 2007 were used for the models. The models evaluated included the algorithms Bioclim, Domain, GARP (genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction), logistic regression and MaxEnt (maximum entropy). Models were evaluated according to performance and robustness. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate each model's performance, and robustness was assessed according to the spatial correlation between classification risks for the two datasets. Relative to the other algorithms, logistic regression was the best and MaxEnt the second best model for classifying high-risk areas. We describe the importance of covariables for these two models and discuss the utility of SDMs in vector control efforts and the potential for the development of scripts that automate the task of creating risk assessment maps. PMID:21198711

  17. Evaluation of Species Distribution Model Algorithms For Fine-Scale Container Breeding Mosquito Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Khatchikian, C.; Sangermano, F.; Kendell, D.; Livdahl, T.

    2010-01-01

    The present work evaluates the use of species distribution model (SDM) algorithms to classify high density of small container Aedes mosquitoes at a fine scale, in the Bermuda islands. Weekly ovitrap data collected by the Health Department of Bermuda (UK) for the years 2006 and 2007 were used for the models. The models evaluated included the following algorithms: Bioclim, Domain, GARP, logistic regression, and MaxEnt. Models were evaluated according to performance and robustness. The area Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate each model’s performance, and robustness was assessed considering the spatial correlation between classification risks for the two datasets. Relative to the other algorithms, logistic regression was the best model for classifying high risk areas, and the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) presented the second best performance. We report the importance of covariables for these two models, and discuss the utility of SDMs for vector control efforts and the potential for the development of scripts that automate the task of creating risk assessment maps. PMID:21198711

  18. Prospective evaluation of analgesic use and risk of renal cell cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Eunyoung; Curhan, Gary; Hankinson, Susan E.; Kantoff, Philip; Atkins, Michael B.; Stampfer, Meir; Choueiri, Toni K.

    2013-01-01

    Background Epidemiologic data suggest that analgesic use increases the risk of renal cell cancer (RCC), but few prospective studies exist. We investigated the association between analgesic use and RCC in two large prospective studies. Methods We examined the relation between analgesic use and RCC risk in the Nurses’ Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Use of aspirin, other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and acetaminophen was ascertained in 1990 in the NHS and 1986 in the HPFS and every 2 years thereafter. We evaluated baseline and duration of use of analgesics. Results During follow-up of 16 years among 77,525 women and 20 years among 49,403 men, we documented 333 RCC cases. Aspirin and acetaminophen use were not associated with RCC risk. However, regular use of non-aspirin NSAIDs was associated with an increased RCC risk; the pooled multivariable relative risk (RR) was 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12–2.04) for the use at baseline. The absolute risk differences for the users vs. non-users of non-aspirin NSAIDs were 9.16/100,000 person-years in women and 10.92/100,000 person-years in men. There was a dose-response relation between duration of non-aspirin NSAIDs use and RCC risk; compared with non-regular users, the pooled multivariable RRs were 0.81 (95% CI 0.59–1.11) for use under 4 years, 1.36 (95% CI 0.98–1.89) for use 4–10 years, and 2.92 (95% CI 1.71–5.01) for use 10+ years (P for trend <0.001). Conclusions Our prospective data suggest that longer duration of use of non-aspirin NSAIDs may increase the risk of RCC. PMID:21911634

  19. Evaluating life-safety risk of fieldwork at New Zealand's active volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deligne, Natalia; Jolly, Gill; Taig, Tony; Webb, Terry

    2014-05-01

    Volcano observatories monitor active or potentially active volcanoes. Although the number and scope of remote monitoring instruments and methods continues to grow, in-person field data collection is still required for comprehensive monitoring. Fieldwork anywhere, and especially in mountainous areas, contains an element of risk. However, on volcanoes with signs of unrest, there is an additional risk of volcanic activity escalating while on site, with potentially lethal consequences. As an employer, a volcano observatory is morally and sometimes legally obligated to take reasonable measures to ensure staff safety and to minimise occupational risk. Here we present how GNS Science evaluates life-safety risk for volcanologists engaged in fieldwork on New Zealand volcanoes with signs of volcanic unrest. Our method includes several key elements: (1) an expert elicitation for how likely an eruption is within a given time frame, (2) quantification of, based on historical data when possible, given a small, moderate, or large eruption, the likelihood of exposure to near-vent processes, ballistics, or surge at various distances from the vent, and (3) estimate of fatality rate given exposure to these volcanic hazards. The final product quantifies hourly fatality risk at various distances from a volcanic vent; various thresholds of risk (for example, zones with more than 10-5 hourly fatality risk) trigger different levels of required approval to undertake work. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective guidance for go/no go decisions for volcanic monitoring.

  20. How social context moderates the self-evaluative emotions experienced due to health risk behaviour.

    PubMed

    Grob, Judith D M; Dijkstra, Arie; de Groot, Carla

    2011-10-01

    When people are confronted with the potential negative physical outcomes of their own health risk behaviour, they experience a self-threat. This threat is felt as negative self-evaluative emotions. We hypothesise that the threat will lead to more private self-evaluative emotions (e.g. regret) in a private social context, whereas more public self-evaluative emotions (e.g. embarrassment) will be felt in a public social context with negative norms. Consistent with our hypotheses, we show that participants anticipate feeling more private self-evaluative emotions when confronted with the negative consequences of their unhealthy behaviour when alone, and more public self-evaluative emotions when in a group (Study 1). They further anticipate more public self-evaluative emotions in response to a health self-threat when the group norm is negative, and more private self-evaluative emotions when the group norm is lenient (Study 2). Finally, in a cross-sectional study amongst smokers, we show that private but not public negative self-evaluative emotions concerning their own smoking habits are positively correlated with the intent to quit smoking (Study 3). These studies show that a distinction needs to be made between public and private self-evaluative emotions, in terms of their antecedents and effects. Theoretical implications and further lines of research are discussed.

  1. Atomic force microscopy as a tool to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases in patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guedes, Ana Filipa; Carvalho, Filomena A.; Malho, Inês; Lousada, Nuno; Sargento, Luís; Santos, Nuno C.

    2016-08-01

    The availability of biomarkers to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases is limited. High fibrinogen levels have been identified as a relevant cardiovascular risk factor, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Increased aggregation of erythrocytes (red blood cells) has been linked to high plasma fibrinogen concentration. Here, we show, using atomic force microscopy, that the interaction between fibrinogen and erythrocytes is modified in chronic heart failure patients. Ischaemic patients showed increased fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces compared with non-ischaemic patients. Cell stiffness in both patient groups was also altered. A 12-month follow-up shows that patients with higher fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces initially were subsequently hospitalized more frequently. Our results show that atomic force microscopy can be a promising tool to identify patients with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

  2. Atomic force microscopy as a tool to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases in patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guedes, Ana Filipa; Carvalho, Filomena A.; Malho, Inês; Lousada, Nuno; Sargento, Luís; Santos, Nuno C.

    2016-08-01

    The availability of biomarkers to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases is limited. High fibrinogen levels have been identified as a relevant cardiovascular risk factor, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Increased aggregation of erythrocytes (red blood cells) has been linked to high plasma fibrinogen concentration. Here, we show, using atomic force microscopy, that the interaction between fibrinogen and erythrocytes is modified in chronic heart failure patients. Ischaemic patients showed increased fibrinogen–erythrocyte binding forces compared with non-ischaemic patients. Cell stiffness in both patient groups was also altered. A 12-month follow-up shows that patients with higher fibrinogen–erythrocyte binding forces initially were subsequently hospitalized more frequently. Our results show that atomic force microscopy can be a promising tool to identify patients with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

  3. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  4. Risk evaluation and management to reaching a suggested FSO in a steam meal.

    PubMed

    Mejia, Z Sosa; Beumer, R R; Zwietering, M H

    2011-06-01

    Steam meals are ready-to-eat meals composed of raw and semi-cooked ingredients, which get cooked while microwave heating. In this study, an Indian style meal was selected, Chicken Tandoori, from two different producers. These meals were first evaluated with the Risk Ranger® to identify the main foodborne pathogens risks, which were Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella Typhimurium and Bacillus cereus. Thereafter, quantitative microbiology was applied using different models and verified with growth and inactivation challenge tests. It was observed that the gamma model and the ComBase program® showed very similar results. However, in some cases the results obtained with the challenge tests showed different results. The information gathered was used to create different scenarios which indicate how to manage the risks by setting Performance Objectives during the different stages of the food chain of this product and hence reaching a suggested Food Safety Objective.

  5. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

    PubMed

    Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

    2010-12-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation.

  6. An Evaluation of Multiple Behavioral Risk Factors for Cancer in a Working Class, Multi-Ethnic Population

    PubMed Central

    Goodman, Melody S.; Li, Yi; Bennett, Gary G.; Stoddard, Anne M.; Emmons, Karen M.

    2012-01-01

    Behavioral risk factors for cancer tend to cluster within individuals, which can compound risk beyond that associated with the individual risk factors alone. There has been increasing attention paid to the prevalence of multiple risk factors (MRF) for cancer, and to the importance of designing interventions that help individuals reduce their risks across multiple behaviors simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to develop methodology to identify an optimal linear combination of multiple risk factors (score function) which would facilitate evaluation of cancer interventions. PMID:23227033

  7. [Evaluation of risk factors for neurosensory deafness in workers engaged into gas transport enterprise in Far North].

    PubMed

    Ikonnikova, N V; Boiko, I V; Klitsenko, O A

    2015-01-01

    Complex study of health state covered 666 workers of gas transport enterprise situated in Far North of Russian Federation, revealed risk factors of neurosensory deafness. Neurosensory deafness risk depends on intensity of occupational noise and length of service under exposure to noise, on worker's age, presence of arterial hypertension and type of lipid metabolism disorders. The study found no correlation between neurosensory deafness risk and duration of residence in Far North. The authors suggested a mathematic model to evaluate risk of neurosensory deafness.

  8. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    SciTech Connect

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A.

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  9. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data

    PubMed Central

    Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

  10. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

    PubMed

    Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-03-01

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

  11. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

    PubMed

    Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-03-01

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

  12. [How to evaluate psychological risks: an ethics of aesthetic demand in orthodontics].

    PubMed

    Benkimoun, Franck

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating risks is part of the day-to-day practice of all orthodontists. Most of the time we forget that healing a patient also requires an evaluation of what is called the psychological risk. Indeed, focusing on harmonisation matters, we tend to omit that patient's requests, especially aesthetic requests, may conceal psychological problems. Such a risk is even higher when it comes to orthodontic-surgical protocols, as the physical changes are more radical. We will discuss the specificities of aesthetical demand, its links with the social discourse and the way self-esteem and reflection in the mirror are closely intermingled. Should we forget to take into account the psychological dimension of any patient, this could be a breach of professional ethics. We will furthermore consider the means we have to recognize patients with a high psychological risk. It is not in our hands to help these patients psychologically. It is in the hands of a mental health specialist, whose adress and phone number we should know in order to refer our patients to him/her.

  13. [How to evaluate psychological risks: an ethics of aesthetic demand in orthodontics].

    PubMed

    Benkimoun, Franck

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating risks is part of the day-to-day practice of all orthodontists. Most of the time we forget that healing a patient also requires an evaluation of what is called the psychological risk. Indeed, focusing on harmonisation matters, we tend to omit that patient's requests, especially aesthetic requests, may conceal psychological problems. Such a risk is even higher when it comes to orthodontic-surgical protocols, as the physical changes are more radical. We will discuss the specificities of aesthetical demand, its links with the social discourse and the way self-esteem and reflection in the mirror are closely intermingled. Should we forget to take into account the psychological dimension of any patient, this could be a breach of professional ethics. We will furthermore consider the means we have to recognize patients with a high psychological risk. It is not in our hands to help these patients psychologically. It is in the hands of a mental health specialist, whose adress and phone number we should know in order to refer our patients to him/her. PMID:26655413

  14. Effects and risk evaluation of oil spillage in the sea areas of Changxing Island.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hanxi; Xu, Jianling; Zhao, Wenkui; Zhang, Jiquan

    2014-08-01

    This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China) based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind) were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing), the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes. PMID:25153473

  15. Evaluation of Psoriasis Genetic Risk Based on Five Susceptibility Markers in a Population from Northern Poland

    PubMed Central

    Stawczyk-Macieja, Marta; Rębała, Krzysztof; Szczerkowska-Dobosz, Aneta; Wysocka, Joanna; Cybulska, Lidia; Kapińska, Ewa; Haraś, Agnieszka; Miniszewska, Paulina; Nowicki, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Psoriasis genetic background depends on polygenic and multifactorial mode of inheritance. As in other complex disorders, the estimation of the disease risk based on individual genetic variants is impossible. For this reason, recent investigations have been focused on combinations of known psoriasis susceptibility markers in order to improve the disease risk evaluation. Our aim was to compare psoriasis genetic risk score (GRS) for five susceptibility loci involved in the immunological response (HLA-C, ERAP1, ZAP70) and in the skin barrier function (LCE3, CSTA) between patients with chronic plaque psoriasis (n = 148) and the control group (n = 146). A significantly higher number of predisposing alleles was observed in patients with psoriasis in comparison to healthy individuals (6.1 vs. 5.2, respectively; P = 8.8×10−7). The statistical significance was even more profound when GRS weighted by logarithm odds ratios was evaluated (P = 9.9×10−14). Our results demonstrate the developed panel of five susceptibility loci to be more efficient in predicting psoriasis risk in the Polish population and to possess higher sensitivity and specificity for the disease than any of the markers analyzed separately, including the most informative HLA-C*06 allele. PMID:27658291

  16. Effects and Risk Evaluation of Oil Spillage in the Sea Areas of Changxing Island

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hanxi; Xu, Jianling; Zhao, Wenkui; Zhang, Jiquan

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China) based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind) were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing), the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes. PMID:25153473

  17. Evaluation of a sexual health approach to reducing HIV/STD risk in the transgender community.

    PubMed

    Bockting, W O; Robinson, B E; Forberg, J; Scheltema, K

    2005-04-01

    Despite reports of high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among the transgender community, very little prevention education has targeted this population. To fill this gap, we developed and evaluated a transgender-specific intervention, All Gender Health, which incorporates prevention strategies into comprehensive sexuality education. Transgender participants (N=181) attended the two-day seminar in community-based venues. The curriculum was delivered via lectures, panel discussions, videos, music, exercises and small group discussions. Attitudes toward condom use, safer sex self-efficacy and sexual risk behaviour were evaluated before participation in the intervention (pre-test), immediately after participation (post-test) and at three-month follow-up. Compared to pre-test values, significant improvements were seen in attitudes toward condom use and in safer sex self-efficacy at post-test, and in attitudes toward condom use, increased monogamy and decreased sexual risk behaviour at three-month follow-up. Pre-test data identified unprotected anal, vaginal and oral sex as the most commonly reported risk behaviours. Many respondents also indicated problems with social discrimination, depression, suicidal ideation and sexual functioning. Future interventions should address these risk co-factors. Alternative interventions need to be developed to target those who, as a result of social marginalization, are less likely to be reached with an intensive seminar-based intervention. PMID:15832877

  18. Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test

    PubMed Central

    NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057

  19. Evaluation of a sexual health approach to reducing HIV/STD risk in the transgender community.

    PubMed

    Bockting, W O; Robinson, B E; Forberg, J; Scheltema, K

    2005-04-01

    Despite reports of high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among the transgender community, very little prevention education has targeted this population. To fill this gap, we developed and evaluated a transgender-specific intervention, All Gender Health, which incorporates prevention strategies into comprehensive sexuality education. Transgender participants (N=181) attended the two-day seminar in community-based venues. The curriculum was delivered via lectures, panel discussions, videos, music, exercises and small group discussions. Attitudes toward condom use, safer sex self-efficacy and sexual risk behaviour were evaluated before participation in the intervention (pre-test), immediately after participation (post-test) and at three-month follow-up. Compared to pre-test values, significant improvements were seen in attitudes toward condom use and in safer sex self-efficacy at post-test, and in attitudes toward condom use, increased monogamy and decreased sexual risk behaviour at three-month follow-up. Pre-test data identified unprotected anal, vaginal and oral sex as the most commonly reported risk behaviours. Many respondents also indicated problems with social discrimination, depression, suicidal ideation and sexual functioning. Future interventions should address these risk co-factors. Alternative interventions need to be developed to target those who, as a result of social marginalization, are less likely to be reached with an intensive seminar-based intervention.

  20. Relative potency as a means of evaluating ELF (Extremely Low Frequency) health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Easterly, C.E.; Glass, L.R.

    1990-09-01

    In the 1970's, a variety of developments took place to heightened public and scientific interest in electromagnetic fields. During this time, biological studies of nonionizing electromagnetic fields were taking place, but no clear evidence of risks to public health was identified. Then came the surprising epidemiological finding suggesting that 60 Hz magnetic fields may be related to some childhood leukemias. Our particular interest at ORNL was how to interpret the available data with respect to human exposures to the nearly ubiquitous fields. A review of the available data showed that consistent biological effects were difficult to identify. Classical toxicological tests used in chemical risk assessment had not been performed with Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) fields but rather a wide range of mechanistic studies had been pursued. To evaluate the level of anticipated hazard or risk there was neither a mechanistic understanding nor a consistent phenomenological outcome. A risk evaluation normally requires one or the other of these two types of information. Two quite different approaches were pursued: meta-analysis and relative potency. The first of these is a method to combine data from similar experiments to enhance the relative statistical power of a collection of small sample size studies, and will not be discussed further. The second, relative potency, will be the focus of this paper. 20 refs., 2 figs.

  1. The Risk-Taking and Self-Harm Inventory for Adolescents: Development and Psychometric Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vrouva, Ioanna; Fonagy, Peter; Fearon, Pasco R. M.; Roussow, Trudie

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we report on the development and psychometric evaluation of the Risk-Taking (RT) and Self-Harm (SH) Inventory for Adolescents (RTSHIA), a self-report measure designed to assess adolescent RT and SH in community and clinical settings. 651 young people from secondary schools in England ranging in age from 11.6 years to 18.7 years and…

  2. Computational evaluation of aortic aneurysm rupture risk: what have we learned so far?

    PubMed

    Georgakarakos, Efstratios; Ioannou, Christos V; Papaharilaou, Yannis; Kostas, Theodoros; Katsamouris, Asterios N

    2011-04-01

    In current clinical practice, aneurysm diameter is one of the primary criteria used to decide when to treat a patient with an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). It has been shown that simple association of aneurysm diameter with the probability of rupture is not sufficient, and other parameters may also play a role in causing or predisposing to AAA rupture. Peak wall stress (PWS), intraluminal thrombus (ILT), and AAA wall mechanics are the factors most implicated with rupture risk and have been studied by computational risk evaluation techniques. The objective of this review is to examine these factors that have been found to influence AAA rupture. The prediction rate of rupture among computational models depends on the level of model complexity and the predictive value of the biomechanical parameters used to assess risk, such as PWS, distribution of ILT, wall strength, and the site of rupture. There is a need for simpler geometric analogues, including geometric parameters (e.g., lumen tortuosity and neck length and angulation) that correlate well with PWS, conjugated with clinical risk factors for constructing rupture risk predictive models. Such models should be supported by novel imaging techniques to provide the required patient-specific data and validated through large, prospective clinical trials. PMID:21521062

  3. Risk-Oriented Safety Evaluation of the CAREM-25 Prototype Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Baron, Jorge H.; McLeod, Jorge E. Nunez; Rivera, Selva S

    2001-05-15

    Construction of the CAREM-25 full-size prototype, a very low power nuclear power station [25 MW(electric)], is scheduled to begin in Argentina in 2001. The CAREM-25 is designed based on principles of inherent safety, passive safety functions, and ease of operation. This paper analyzes the safety philosophy from the point of view of risk by performing a level-III probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of this prototype. The specific PSA steps are discussed, including a specially developed method to obtain representative initiating events, system analysis by fault trees, event development in event trees, plant and containment response analysis, containment event tree development, consequence calculations, and risk representation. The PSA results are presented and discussed in terms of their own values as well as in comparison to other PSA results performed for larger nuclear power plants (NPPs). The advantages of the CAREM-25 from the risk point of view are studied in terms of the effective reduction of both the probability of severe accident sequences and the potential consequences of such sequences (radiological and emergency preparedness impact). The risk point of view also provides a perspective to analyze the impact of several design modifications in order to further reduce the residual risk of the NPP. These design modifications, several of which have already been included in the prototype, are discussed and evaluated.

  4. Evaluating re-identification risks with respect to the HIPAA privacy rule

    PubMed Central

    Benitez, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    Objective Many healthcare organizations follow data protection policies that specify which patient identifiers must be suppressed to share “de-identified” records. Such policies, however, are often applied without knowledge of the risk of “re-identification”. The goals of this work are: (1) to estimate re-identification risk for data sharing policies of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Privacy Rule; and (2) to evaluate the risk of a specific re-identification attack using voter registration lists. Measurements We define several risk metrics: (1) expected number of re-identifications; (2) estimated proportion of a population in a group of size g or less, and (3) monetary cost per re-identification. For each US state, we estimate the risk posed to hypothetical datasets, protected by the HIPAA Safe Harbor and Limited Dataset policies by an attacker with full knowledge of patient identifiers and with limited knowledge in the form of voter registries. Results The percentage of a state's population estimated to be vulnerable to unique re-identification (ie, g=1) when protected via Safe Harbor and Limited Datasets ranges from 0.01% to 0.25% and 10% to 60%, respectively. In the voter attack, this number drops for many states, and for some states is 0%, due to the variable availability of voter registries in the real world. We also find that re-identification cost ranges from $0 to $17 000, further confirming risk variability. Conclusions This work illustrates that blanket protection policies, such as Safe Harbor, leave different organizations vulnerable to re-identification at different rates. It provides justification for locally performed re-identification risk estimates prior to sharing data. PMID:20190059

  5. Lobular Carcinoma in Situ: A 29-Year Longitudinal Experience Evaluating Clinicopathologic Features and Breast Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    King, Tari A.; Pilewskie, Melissa; Muhsen, Shirin; Patil, Sujata; Mautner, Starr K.; Park, Anna; Oskar, Sabine; Guerini-Rocco, Elena; Boafo, Camilla; Gooch, Jessica C.; De Brot, Marina; Reis-Filho, Jorge S.; Morrogh, Mary; Andrade, Victor P.; Sakr, Rita A.; Morrow, Monica

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The increased breast cancer risk conferred by a diagnosis of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is poorly understood. Here, we review our 29-year longitudinal experience with LCIS to evaluate factors associated with breast cancer risk. Patients and Methods Patients participating in surveillance after an LCIS diagnosis are observed in a prospectively maintained database. Comparisons were made among women choosing surveillance, with or without chemoprevention, and those undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomies between 1980 and 2009. Results One thousand sixty patients with LCIS without concurrent breast cancer were identified. Median age at LCIS diagnosis was 50 years (range, 27 to 83 years). Fifty-six patients (5%) underwent bilateral prophylactic mastectomy; 1,004 chose surveillance with (n = 173) or without (n = 831) chemoprevention. At a median follow-up of 81 months (range, 6 to 368 months), 150 patients developed 168 breast cancers (63% ipsilateral, 25% contralateral, 12% bilateral), with no dominant histology (ductal carcinoma in situ, 35%; infiltrating ductal carcinoma, 29%; infiltrating lobular carcinoma, 27%; other, 9%). Breast cancer incidence was significantly reduced in women taking chemoprevention (10-year cumulative risk: 7% with chemoprevention; 21% with no chemoprevention; P < .001). In multivariable analysis, chemoprevention was the only clinical factor associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.50). In a subgroup nested case-control analysis, volume of disease, which was defined as the ratio of slides with LCIS to total number of slides reviewed, was also associated with breast cancer development (P = .008). Conclusion We observed a 2% annual incidence of breast cancer among women with LCIS. Common clinical factors used for risk prediction, including age and family history, were not associated with breast cancer risk. The lower breast cancer incidence in women opting for chemoprevention highlights the

  6. Evaluating health risks from occupational exposure to pesticides and the regulatory response.

    PubMed Central

    Woodruff, T J; Kyle, A D; Bois, F Y

    1994-01-01

    In this study, we used measurements of occupational exposures to pesticides in agriculture to evaluate health risks and analyzed how the federal regulatory program is addressing these risks. Dose estimates developed by the State of California from measured occupational exposures to 41 pesticides were compared to standard indices of acute toxicity (LD50) and chronic effects (reference dose). Lifetime cancer risks were estimated using cancer potencies. Estimated absorbed daily doses for mixers, loaders, and applicators of pesticides ranged from less than 0.0001% to 48% of the estimated human LD50 values, and doses for 10 of 40 pesticides exceeded 1% of the estimated human LD50 values. Estimated lifetime absorbed daily doses ranged from 0.1% to 114,000% of the reference doses developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and doses for 13 of 25 pesticides were above them. Lifetime cancer risks ranged from 1 per million to 1700 per million, and estimates for 12 of 13 pesticides were above 1 per million. Similar results were obtained for field workers and flaggers. For the pesticides examined, exposures pose greater risks of chronic effects than acute effects. Exposure reduction measures, including use of closed mixing systems and personal protective equipment, significantly reduced exposures. Proposed regulations rely primarily on requirements for personal protective equipment and use restrictions to protect workers. Chronic health risks are not considered in setting these requirements. Reviews of pesticides by the federal pesticide regulatory program have had little effect on occupational risks. Policy strategies that offer immediate protection for workers and that are not dependent on extensive review of individual pesticides should be pursued. Images Figure 1. PMID:7713022

  7. Workshop report: evaluation of genetic and epigenetic risks associated with assisted reproductive technologies and infertility.

    PubMed

    Weksberg, Rosanna; Shuman, Cheryl; Wilkins-Haug, Louise; Mann, Mellissa; Croughan, Mary; Stewart, Donna; Rakowsky, Catherine; Leader, Arthur; Hall, Judith; Friedman, J M; Simpson, Joe Leigh; Holmes, Lewis; Infante-Rivard, Claire

    2007-07-01

    In January 2005, the Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) Workshop: Evaluation of Genetic and Epigenetic Risks Associated with Assisted Reproductive Technologies and Infertility was convened to evaluate current data on genetic and epigenetic risks to offspring conceived after a period of infertility and/or via ARTs. Formal presentations and workshop breakout groups reviewed the information from a broad range of disciplines and discussed issues regarding study design, molecular approaches, animal model systems, clinical outcomes, and ethical, legal, and psychosocial issues. The key recommendations of the workshop are that: [1] ART research and education should flow from clinical and basic science studies of the fundamental biology of early mammalian embryonic development, with a focus on how infertility and/or ART might disrupt such processes; [2] such research should include the emerging area of epigenetics and its potential role in reproductive health outcomes; [3] methods for the standardization of data collection and for handling and analysis should be employed, including precise definitions of obstetric and perinatal terminology; [4] much greater awareness and ongoing evaluation of the psychosocial impact of ART and ART research on women, their partners, and their offspring are required; and [5] effective methods of knowledge transfer need to be developed and delivered to healthcare providers and to the general public regarding reproductive planning, infertility, and ART, including the potential risks associated with each.

  8. Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

    PubMed

    Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

    2003-12-01

    The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.

  9. Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

    PubMed

    Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

    2003-12-01

    The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option. PMID:15160901

  10. Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    covariance shape, reaction parameters pertaining to aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes respectively as well as the dose response parameters. Even though the final result assumes a relatively simple form, few numerical quadratures are required in order to evaluate the trajectory moments of the solute plume. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis we apply the methodology to a hypothetical case study. The scenario investigated is made by an aquifer which constitutes a water supply for a population where a continuous source of NAPL contaminant feeds a steady plume. The risk analysis is limited to carcinogenic compounds for which the well-known linear relation for human risk is assumed. Analysis performed shows few interesting findings: the risk distribution is strictly dependent on the pore scale dynamics that trigger dilution and mixing; biodegradation may involve a significant reduction of the risk.

  11. PURE: a web-based decision support system to evaluate pesticide environmental risk for sustainable pest management practices in California.

    PubMed

    Zhan, Yu; Zhang, Minghua

    2012-08-01

    Farmers, policy makers, and other stakeholders seek tools to quantitatively assess pesticide risks for mitigating pesticide impacts on ecosystem and human health. This paper presents the Pesticide Use Risk Evaluation (PURE) decision support system (DSS) for evaluating site-specific pesticide risks to surface water, groundwater, soil, and air across pesticide active ingredient (AI), pesticide product, and field levels. The risk score is determined by the ratio of the predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) to the toxicity value for selected endpoint organism(s); except that the risk score for the air is calculated using the emission potential (EP), which is a pesticide product property for estimating potential volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by California Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA). The risk scores range from 0 to 100, where 0 represents negligible risk while 100 means the highest risk. The procedure for calculating PEC in surface water was evaluated against monitoring data for 41 pesticide AIs, with a statistically significant correlation coefficient of r=0.82 (p<0.001). In addition, two almond fields in the Central Valley, California were evaluated for pesticide risks as a case study, where the commonly acknowledged high-risk pesticides gained high risk scores. Simazine, one of the most frequently detected pesticides in groundwater, was scored as 74 (the moderate high risk class) to groundwater; and chlorpyrifos, one of the frequently detected pollutants in surface water, was scored as 100 (the high risk class) to surface water. In support of pesticide risk quantitative assessment and use of reduced-risk pesticide selection, the PURE-DSS can be useful to assist growers, pesticide control advisors, and environmental protection organizations in mitigating pesticide use impacts on the environment.

  12. [Evaluation of occupational risk factors, nutritional habits and nutritional status in industrial workers].

    PubMed

    Domagała-Dobrzycka, M

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between selected risk factors at the workplace and health indices in relation to nutritional habits and nutritional status in industrial workers. Exposure to physical and chemical risk factors and their impact on health in the province of Szczecin and in Poland was evaluated basing on data published in the Yearbooks of the Province of Szczecin, the Central Statistics Bureau (GUS) and Regional Inspectorate of Labor (OIP) in Szczecin. A random selection of plants in Szczecin was done and workplaces with chemical and physical risk levels exceeding the highest acceptable values were identified. Measurements of concentrations of chemicals and intensity of physical factors were performed by Work Environment Research Laboratories of the plants and by the laboratory of the Sanitary and Epidemiological Center in Szczecin. Eighty-eight men exposed to occupational risk factors were randomly selected. The mean period of exposure in that group was approximately ten years. The control group was composed of male workers (n = 83) not exposed to any of the risk factors in question (Tab. 3). Nutritional habits and nutritional status were studied during summer/autumn and winter/spring periods. Dietary survey consisted of the last 24-hour nutrient intake questionnaire. Nutritional status evaluation was based on body mass index (BMI) values and results of the following laboratory tests: blood cell count, levels of total protein, prealbumin, retinol binding protein (RBP), magnesium, inorganic phosphorus, and ascorbic acid. The following results were obtained: 1. Physical factors constituted the most frequent source of occupational risk in the province of Szczecin and in Poland in 1990-1994 (Tab. 1); 2. The incidence of occupational risk and occupational disease morbidity rates in 1990-1994 were lower for the province of Szczecin than the average for Poland; 3. The rate of fatal accidents at work in 1982-1994 was higher for the

  13. STRESSED SEBATES: A TRAIT-BASED EVALUATION OF CLIMATE RISKS TO ROCKFISHES OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC USING THE COASTAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...

  14. Stressed Sebastes: A Trait-Based Evaluation of Climate Risks to Rockfishes of the Northeastern Pacific Using the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...

  15. Evaluation of six risk factors for the development of bacteremia in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia

    PubMed Central

    Asturias, E.J.; Corral, J.E.; Quezada, J.

    2010-01-01

    Febrile neutropenia is a well-known entity in children with cancer, being responsible for the high risk for infection that characterizes this population. For this reason, cancer patients are hospitalized so that they can receive prophylactic care. Risk factors have been used to classify patients at a high risk for developing bacteremia. The present study evaluates whether those risk factors (C-reactive protein, hypotension, leukemia as the cancer type, thrombocytopenia, recent chemotherapy, and acute malnutrition) apply to patients at the Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica. We evaluated 102 episodes in 88 patients, in whom risk factors and blood cultures were tested. We observed no statistical relationship between the six risk factors and bacteremia. There was also no relationship between bacteremia and the simultaneous presence of two, three, or more risk factors. A significant relationship of C-reactive protein and platelet count with other outcome factors was observed. PMID:20404980

  16. Evaluation of six risk factors for the development of bacteremia in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia.

    PubMed

    Asturias, E J; Corral, J E; Quezada, J

    2010-04-01

    Febrile neutropenia is a well-known entity in children with cancer, being responsible for the high risk for infection that characterizes this population. For this reason, cancer patients are hospitalized so that they can receive prophylactic care. Risk factors have been used to classify patients at a high risk for developing bacteremia. The present study evaluates whether those risk factors (C-reactive protein, hypotension, leukemia as the cancer type, thrombocytopenia, recent chemotherapy, and acute malnutrition) apply to patients at the Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica. We evaluated 102 episodes in 88 patients, in whom risk factors and blood cultures were tested. We observed no statistical relationship between the six risk factors and bacteremia. There was also no relationship between bacteremia and the simultaneous presence of two, three, or more risk factors. A significant relationship of C-reactive protein and platelet count with other outcome factors was observed.

  17. Risk.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Hudgens, Michael G; Brookhart, M Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-02-15

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  18. Net reclassification indices for evaluating risk prediction instruments: a critical review.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Kathleen F; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L; Psaty, Bruce M; Pepe, Margaret S

    2014-01-01

    Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For predefined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true- and false-positive rates. We advocate the use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid predefined risk categories. However, it experiences many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap methods

  19. Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2014-06-01

    Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural

  20. Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk-Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

    PubMed Central

    Kerr, Kathleen F.; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Pepe, Margaret S.

    2014-01-01

    Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true-positive and false-positive rates. We advocate use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. However, it suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap

  1. Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

    2015-10-01

    Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared

  2. Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

    2015-10-01

    Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared

  3. Evaluation of injury and fatality risk in rock and ice climbing.

    PubMed

    Schöffl, Volker; Morrison, Audry; Schwarz, Ulrich; Schöffl, Isabelle; Küpper, Thomas

    2010-08-01

    Rock and ice climbing are widely considered to be 'high-risk' sporting activities that are associated with a high incidence of severe injury and even death, compared with more mainstream sports. However, objective scientific data to support this perception are questionable. Accordingly, >400 sport-specific injury studies were analysed and compared by quantifying the injury incidence and objectively grading the injury severity (using the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics score) per 1000 hours of sporting participation. Fatalities were also analysed. The analysis revealed that fatalities occurred in all sports, but it was not always clear whether the sport itself or pre-existing health conditions contributed or caused the deaths. Bouldering (ropeless climbing to low heights), sport climbing (mostly bolt protected lead climbing with little objective danger) and indoor climbing (climbing indoors on artificial rock structures), showed a small injury rate, minor injury severity and few fatalities. As more objective/external dangers exist for alpine and ice climbing, the injury rate, injury severity and fatality were all higher. Overall, climbing sports had a lower injury incidence and severity score than many popular sports, including basketball, sailing or soccer; indoor climbing ranked the lowest in terms of injuries of all sports assessed. Nevertheless, a fatality risk remains, especially in alpine and ice climbing. In the absence of a standard definition for a 'high-risk' sport, categorizing climbing as a high-risk sport was found to be either subjective or dependent on the definition used. In conclusion, this analysis showed that retrospective data on sport-specific injuries and fatalities are not reported in a standardized manner. To improve preventative injury measures for climbing sports, it is recommended that a standardized, robust and comprehensive sport-specific scoring model should be developed to report and fully evaluate the injury risk, severity

  4. Evaluation of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a Predictor of Adolescent Real-World Risk-Taking Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lejuez, C. W.; Aklin, Will M.; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Pedulla, Christina M.

    2003-01-01

    A sample of 26 adolescents tested the utility of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a behavioral measure of risk-taking propensity. Data indicate that riskyness on the BART was related to self-reported engagement in real-world risk-taking behaviors. These data suggest that the BART may be a useful addition to self-report batteries for the…

  5. Physical evaluation system to determine medical risk and indicated dental therapy modifications.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, F M; Malamed, S F

    1979-08-01

    The physical evaluation system allows the practitioner to rapidly classify each patient according to medical risk and thus to provide dental treatment comfortably and safely. The evaluation system serves as a guide to the level of dental therapy, deisions of management, and modification of treatment for the medically compromised patient. Extensive use of the ADA physical status classification system in dentistry would allow meaningful studies of morbidity and mortality that are related to various management protocols and could conceivably have an impact on insurance schedules associated with psychosedation modalities and general anethesia on an out patient basis. A physical evaluation system cannot substitute for knowledge and good judgment. Recommended categories of physical status and modification of treatment should not be considered as absolutes, but as guides. Wheras the guidelines may appear to be inflexible, they should not be considered as such. Deviation from recommendations is often justified and is expected.

  6. Risk management in technovigilance: construction and validation of a medical-hospital product evaluation instrument.

    PubMed

    Kuwabara, Cleuza Catsue Takeda; Evora, Yolanda Dora Martinez; de Oliveira, Márcio Mattos Borges

    2010-01-01

    With the continuous incorporation of health technologies, hospital risk management should be implemented to systemize the monitoring of adverse effects, performing actions to control and eliminate their damage. As part of these actions, Technovigilance is active in the procedures of acquisition, use and quality control of health products and equipment. This study aimed to construct and validate an instrument to evaluate medical-hospital products. This is a quantitative, exploratory, longitudinal and methodological development study, based on the Six Sigma quality management model, which has as its principle basis the component stages of the DMAIC Cycle. For data collection and content validation, the Delphi technique was used with professionals from the Brazilian Sentinel Hospital Network. It was concluded that the instrument developed permitted the evaluation of the product, differentiating between the results of the tested brands, in line with the initial study goal of qualifying the evaluations performed. PMID:21120414

  7. Safety evaluation and risk assessment of the herbicide Roundup and its active ingredient, glyphosate, for humans.

    PubMed

    Williams, G M; Kroes, R; Munro, I C

    2000-04-01

    Reviews on the safety of glyphosate and Roundup herbicide that have been conducted by several regulatory agencies and scientific institutions worldwide have concluded that there is no indication of any human health concern. Nevertheless, questions regarding their safety are periodically raised. This review was undertaken to produce a current and comprehensive safety evaluation and risk assessment for humans. It includes assessments of glyphosate, its major breakdown product [aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA)], its Roundup formulations, and the predominant surfactant [polyethoxylated tallow amine (POEA)] used in Roundup formulations worldwide. The studies evaluated in this review included those performed for regulatory purposes as well as published research reports. The oral absorption of glyphosate and AMPA is low, and both materials are eliminated essentially unmetabolized. Dermal penetration studies with Roundup showed very low absorption. Experimental evidence has shown that neither glyphosate nor AMPA bioaccumulates in any animal tissue. No significant toxicity occurred in acute, subchronic, and chronic studies. Direct ocular exposure to the concentrated Roundup formulation can result in transient irritation, while normal spray dilutions cause, at most, only minimal effects. The genotoxicity data for glyphosate and Roundup were assessed using a weight-of-evidence approach and standard evaluation criteria. There was no convincing evidence for direct DNA damage in vitro or in vivo, and it was concluded that Roundup and its components do not pose a risk for the production of heritable/somatic mutations in humans. Multiple lifetime feeding studies have failed to demonstrate any tumorigenic potential for glyphosate. Accordingly, it was concluded that glyphosate is noncarcinogenic. Glyphosate, AMPA, and POEA were not teratogenic or developmentally toxic. There were no effects on fertility or reproductive parameters in two multigeneration reproduction studies with

  8. Soil mutagenicity as a strategy to evaluate environmental and health risks in a contaminated area.

    PubMed

    Pohren, Roberta de Souza; Rocha, Jocelita Aparecida Vaz; Leal, Karen Alan; Vargas, Vera Maria Ferrão

    2012-09-01

    Soil can be a storage place and source of pollutants for interfacial environments. This study looked at a site contaminated with wood preservatives as a source of mutagens, defined routes and extent of the dispersion of these contaminants by particle remobilization and atmospheric deposition, considering an evaluation of risk to human health by quantifying mutagenic risk. Soil sampling sites were chosen at gradually increasing distances (150, 500 and 1700m) from SI (industrial area pool) and indoor dust (pool in an area at risk at 385m and at 1700m). Mutagenesis was evaluated in the Salmonella/microsome assay, TA98, TA97a and TA100 strains with and without S9 mix, YGs strains 1041, 1042 and 1024 for nitrocompounds. Acid extracts were analyzed to define the effects of metals and organics for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and nitroderivates, besides concentrations of these compounds and pentachlorophenol (PCP). Risk to human health was obtained from the relation between the quantified potential of mutagenic risk and estimated soil ingestion for children according to USEPA. Metal concentrations showed a gradient of responses with As, Cr and Cu (total metal) or Cr and Cu (fraction available) higher for SI. However, mutagenic effects of the mixtures did not show this grading. Site SR1700, without a response, was characterized as a reference. In organic extracts, the mutagenesis responses showed the mobility of these compounds from the source. In the surrounding area, a smaller pattern similar to SI was observed at SR150, and at the other sites elevated values of direct mutagenesis at SR500 and diminished effects at SR1700. Tests with YG strains indicated that nitrated compounds have a significant effect on the direct mutagenesis found, except SR500. The investigation of indoor dust in the surrounding area enabled confirmation of the particle resuspension route and atmospheric deposition, showing responses in mutagenicity biomarkers, PAH concentrations and PCP

  9. Methodological Approaches to Evaluate Teratogenic Risk Using Birth Defect Registries: Advantages and Disadvantages

    PubMed Central

    Poletta, Fernando A.; López Camelo, Jorge S.; Gili, Juan A.; Leoncini, Emmanuele; Castilla, Eduardo E.; Mastroiacovo, Pierpaolo

    2012-01-01

    Background Different approaches have been used in case-control studies to estimate maternal exposure to medications and the risk of birth defects. However, the performance of these approaches and how they affect the odds ratio (OR) estimates have not been evaluated using birth-defect surveillance programmes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the scope and limitations of three case-control approaches to assess the teratogenic risk of birth defects in mothers exposed to antiepileptic medications, insulin, or acetaminophen. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied 110,814 non-malformed newborns and 58,514 live newborns with birth defects registered by the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Anomalies (ECLAMC) between 1967 and 2008. Four controls were randomly selected for each case in the same hospital and period, and three different control groups were used: non-malformed newborns (HEALTHY), malformed newborns (SICK), and a subgroup of SICK, only-exposed cases (OECA). Associations were evaluated using OR and Pearson's chi-square (P<0.01). There were no concordance correlations between the HEALTHY and OECA designs, and the average OR differences ranged from 3.0 to 11.5 for the three evaluated medicines. The overestimations observed for HEALTHY design were increased as higher OR values were given, with a high and statistically significant correlation between the difference and the mean. On the contrary, the concordance correlations obtained between the SICK and OECA designs were quite good, with no significant differences in the average risks. Conclusions The HEALTHY design estimates the true population OR, but shows a high rate of false-positive results presumably caused by differential misclassification bias. This bias decreases with the increase of the proportion of exposed controls. SICK and OECA odds ratios cannot be considered a direct estimate of the true population OR except under certain conditions. However, the SICK and OECA designs could

  10. Pilot evaluation of an adolescent risk and injury prevention programme incorporating curriculum and school connectedness components.

    PubMed

    Chapman, R L; Buckley, L; Sheehan, M; Shochet, I M

    2013-08-01

    School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development (PD) for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received PD made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at 6-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students' connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries.

  11. EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS

    PubMed Central

    WANG, LE; SHAW, PAMELA A.; MATHELIER, HANSIE M.; KIMMEL, STEPHEN E.; FRENCH, BENJAMIN

    2016-01-01

    The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., “false negatives”). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models. PMID:27158296

  12. Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach.

    PubMed

    Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A; Ramanujan, Saroja

    2016-01-01

    The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate.

  13. Pilot evaluation of an adolescent risk and injury prevention programme incorporating curriculum and school connectedness components.

    PubMed

    Chapman, R L; Buckley, L; Sheehan, M; Shochet, I M

    2013-08-01

    School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development (PD) for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received PD made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at 6-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students' connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries. PMID:23503569

  14. Developing a utility decision framework to evaluate predictive models in breast cancer risk estimation

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yirong; Abbey, Craig K.; Chen, Xianqiao; Liu, Jie; Page, David C.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Peissig, Peggy; Onitilo, Adedayo A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Combining imaging and genetic information to predict disease presence and progression is being codified into an emerging discipline called “radiogenomics.” Optimal evaluation methodologies for radiogenomics have not been well established. We aim to develop a decision framework based on utility analysis to assess predictive models for breast cancer diagnosis. We garnered Gail risk factors, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and mammographic features from a retrospective case-control study. We constructed three logistic regression models built on different sets of predictive features: (1) Gail, (2) Gail + Mammo, and (3) Gail + Mammo + SNP. Then we generated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for three models. After we assigned utility values for each category of outcomes (true negatives, false positives, false negatives, and true positives), we pursued optimal operating points on ROC curves to achieve maximum expected utility of breast cancer diagnosis. We performed McNemar’s test based on threshold levels at optimal operating points, and found that SNPs and mammographic features played a significant role in breast cancer risk estimation. Our study comprising utility analysis and McNemar’s test provides a decision framework to evaluate predictive models in breast cancer risk estimation. PMID:26835489

  15. Second moment method for evaluating human health risks from groundwater contaminated by trichloroethylene.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, T L; Warmerdam, J M; Medina, M A; Piver, W T

    1996-08-01

    Pollutants in groundwater aquifers may constitute a significant human health risk. A large variation in response may result among human populations experiencing the same level and duration of exposure to pollutants. Variability in response, as a result of exposure to a carcinogenic contaminant such as trichloroethylene (TCE), can be represented by a distribution function of safe doses. Spatial variability in aquifer characteristics and contaminant transport parameters requires the use of stochastic transport models to quantify variability in exposure concentrations. A second moment method is used to evaluate the probability of exceeding safe dose levels for a contaminated aquifer. The name of this method stems from the fact that the formulation is based on the first and second moments of the random variables. With this method, the probability is a function of the variability of contaminant concentration (which incorporates variability in hydrogeologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity) and the variability in response in the human population. In this manner, the severity of the health risk posed by a contaminated aquifer and the evaluation of appropriate strategies and technologies for aquifer remediation are a function of contaminant concentrations and human health risks. The applicability and limitations of this method are demonstrated with data on groundwater contaminated by TCE at Hill Air Force Base, Utah.

  16. Evaluation of tumorigenic risk of tissue-engineered oral mucosal epithelial cells by using combinational examinations.

    PubMed

    Thépot, A; Morel, A P; Justin, V; Desanlis, A; Thivillier, L; Hoffman, E; Till, M; Accardi, R; Tommasino, M; Breton, P; Hainaut, P; Damour, O

    2010-01-01

    Recently, oral mucosal epithelial cells were proposed as a cell source of the autologous cell transplant therapy for corneal trauma or disease. The question addressed is to know if the biological conditions of grafting could induce certain cellular, molecular, and genetic alterations that might increase the risk of mutations and possibly of cellular transformation. Recent progress in cancer research enables us to depict the generation mechanisms and basic characteristics of human cancer cells from molecular, cytological, and biological aspects. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of tumorigenicity of the oral mucosal epithelial culture process in order to mitigate that risk, if any, before clinical application. Oral mucosal epithelial cells from three different human donors were investigated by combinational examinations to detect possible tumorigenic transformation. We investigated (i) clonogenic and karyology types, (ii) the validation of proliferation rate, (iii) the epithelial-mesenchymal transition, (iv) anchorage-independent growth potential, and (v) tumorigenicity on nude mice. Results show that the culture process used in this study presents no risk of tumorigenicity. PMID:20977830

  17. A checklist for evaluating ergonomic risk factors associated with upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders.

    PubMed

    Keyserling, W M; Stetson, D S; Silverstein, B A; Brouwer, M L

    1993-07-01

    A two-page checklist for determining the presence of ergonomic risk factors associated with the development of upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders (e.g., repetitiveness, local mechanical contact stresses, forceful manual exertions, awkward postures, and hand tool usage) was developed and evaluated as part of a joint labour-management ergonomics intervention programme. This checklist was used by plant personnel at four work sites to assess the presence of upper extremity risk factors in 335 manufacturing and warehouse jobs. In addition, results generated by the checklist were compared to the results of ergonomic analyses performed by persons with advanced training (Masters degree) in occupational ergonomics for a subset of 51 jobs. Most of the jobs included in the survey were found to have significant exposures to upper extremity risk factors. Awkward work postures were common, with 90% of the jobs requiring wrist deviations outside the neutral range-of-motion. The jobs were also highly repetitive and frequently required workers to exert high hand forces. Results generated by the checklist were generally in agreement with results generated by the ergonomic analysts; however, the checklist was found to be more sensitive in identifying the presence of risk factors. The checklist was found to be an effective rapid-screening instrument for identifying jobs that expose workers to potentially harmful ergonomic stresses. However, the checklist methodology did not include sufficient documentation of work methods to identify specific job attributes associated with these exposures. PMID:8339720

  18. The ABC’s of Suicide Risk Assessment: Applying a Tripartite Approach to Individual Evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Keith M.; Syu, Jia-Jia; Lello, Owen D.; Chew, Y. L. Eileen; Willcox, Christopher H.; Ho, Roger H. M.

    2015-01-01

    There is considerable need for accurate suicide risk assessment for clinical, screening, and research purposes. This study applied the tripartite affect-behavior-cognition theory, the suicidal barometer model, classical test theory, and item response theory (IRT), to develop a brief self-report measure of suicide risk that is theoretically-grounded, reliable and valid. An initial survey (n = 359) employed an iterative process to an item pool, resulting in the six-item Suicidal Affect-Behavior-Cognition Scale (SABCS). Three additional studies tested the SABCS and a highly endorsed comparison measure. Studies included two online surveys (Ns = 1007, and 713), and one prospective clinical survey (n = 72; Time 2, n = 54). Factor analyses demonstrated SABCS construct validity through unidimensionality. Internal reliability was high (α = .86-.93, split-half = .90-.94)). The scale was predictive of future suicidal behaviors and suicidality (r = .68, .73, respectively), showed convergent validity, and the SABCS-4 demonstrated clinically relevant sensitivity to change. IRT analyses revealed the SABCS captured more information than the comparison measure, and better defined participants at low, moderate, and high risk. The SABCS is the first suicide risk measure to demonstrate no differential item functioning by sex, age, or ethnicity. In all comparisons, the SABCS showed incremental improvements over a highly endorsed scale through stronger predictive ability, reliability, and other properties. The SABCS is in the public domain, with this publication, and is suitable for clinical evaluations, public screening, and research. PMID:26030590

  19. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

  20. Post-Flight Back Pain Following International Space Station Missions: Evaluation of Spaceflight Risk Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Back pain during spaceflight has often been attributed to the lengthening of the spinal column due to the absence of gravity during both short and long-duration missions. Upon landing and re-adaptation to gravity, the spinal column reverts back to its original length thereby causing some individuals to experience pain and muscular spasms, while others experience no ill effects. With International Space Station (ISS) missions, cases of back pain and injury are more common post-flight, but little is known about the potential risk factors. Thus, the purpose of this project was to perform an initial evaluation of reported post-flight back pain and injury cases to relevant spaceflight risk factors in United States astronauts that have completed an ISS mission. METHODS All US astronauts who completed an ISS mission between Expeditions (EXP) 1 and 41 (2000-2015) were included in this evaluation. Forty-five astronauts (36 males and 9 females) completed 50 ISS missions during the study time period, as 5 astronauts completed 2 ISS missions. Researchers queried medical records of the 45 astronauts for occurrences of back pain and injury. A case was defined as any reported event of back pain or injury to the cervical, thoracic, lumbar, sacral, or coccyx spine regions. Data sources for the cases included the Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record; Astronaut Strength, Conditioning and Rehabilitation electronic documentation; the Private Medical Conference tool; and the Space Medicine Operations Team records. Post-flight cases were classified as an early case if reported within 45 days of landing (R + 45) or a late case if reported from R + 46 to R + 365 days after landing (R + 1y). Risk factors in the astronaut population for back pain include age, sex, prior military service, and prior history of back pain. Additionally, spaceflight specific risk factors such as type of landing vehicle and onboard exercise countermeasures were included to evaluate their

  1. Evaluation and improvement of methods to quantify the exploration risk of geothermal projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganz, Britta; Schellschmidt, Rüdiger; Schulz, Rüdiger; Thomas, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    The quantification of exploration risks is of major importance for geothermal project planning. The exploration risk is defined as the risk of not successfully achieving a geothermal reservoir with minimum levels of thermal water production and reservoir temperatures (UNEP 2004). A simple method to quantify the probability of success (POS) for geothermal wells is to determine the single risks for temperature and flow rate and calculate the overall probability by multiplying the individual probabilities (SCHULZ et al. 2010). Since 2002, over 50 expert studies to evaluate the exploration risk of geothermal projects in Germany were carried out based on this method. The studies are requested as a basis for insurance contracts covering the risk of not achieving the necessary parameters. The estimated probabilities for temperature and flow rate in the expert reports were now compared with the parameters actually reached in meanwhile realised projects. The results are used for an improvement of the method. The probability of success for a given temperature was calculated using local temperature information in the vicinity of the planned well location. The greater significance of nearby temperature data was considered by inverse distance weighting. In highly productive deep aquifers, which are of major interest for geothermal projects, temperature gradients often strongly decrease due to an intense vertical mixing of the thermal water. Thus, the top of the considered aquifer was used as the reference point of the temperature assessment. As still some positive gradient can be expected within the aquifer, this is a conservative estimation. The evaluation of the reports should therefore especially answer the question, whether this approach has led to a systematic underestimation of the temperature. To calculate the probability of success for hydraulic parameters, the theoretical drawdown at a given flow rate was calculated for existing wells from hydraulic test data. The

  2. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-18

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  3. Diet and behavior in at-risk children: evaluation of an early intervention program.

    PubMed

    Worobey, John; Pisuk, Joan; Decker, Kathleen

    2004-01-01

    This study describes outcomes for children enrolled in the Prevention-Oriented System for Child Health Project, an early intervention program aimed at improving health and developmental status in at-risk families. Through a series of home visits by public health nurses, 60 families received lessons on nutrition- and health-related topics determined by the child and family's needs. On two occasions, some 8 months apart, the children were evaluated using the Developmental Assessment of Young Children, and their energy intake over the previous day was recorded. Analyses of the dietary and behavioral records indicated that the children's scores on the physical subtest improved significantly. A number of nutrition-development associations were found at follow-up, suggesting that the intervention was successful. Implications of the results for at-risk children are discussed. PMID:14987211

  4. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. PMID:26910315

  5. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

    2011-12-01

    Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

  6. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  7. Risk evaluation of available phosphorus loss in agricultural land based on remote sensing and GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Xiaodong; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Junfeng; Liu, Ting; Xie, Bin

    2010-09-01

    The surplus of phosphorus leads to water eutrophication. Huge input of fertilizers in agricultural activities enriches nutrition in soil. The superfluous nutrient moves easily to riparian water by rainfall and surface runoff; leads to water eutrophication of riparian wetlands and downstream water; and consequently affects ecological balance. Thus it is significant to investigate the risk of phosphorus loss in agricultural land, to identify high concentration areas and guide the management of nutrition loss. This study was implemented mainly in the area of agricultural use in southern Western Australia, where a three-year period preliminary monitoring of water quality showed that the concentration of different forms of phosphorus in water had far exceeded the standard. Due to the large scale surface runoff caused by occasional storms in Western Australia, soil erosion was selected as the main driving factor for the loss of phosphorus. Remote sensing and ground truth data were used to reflect the seasonal changes of plants. The spatial distribution of available phosphorus was then predicted and combined with the evaluation matrix to evaluate the loss risk of phosphorus. This evaluation was based on quantitative rather than qualitative data to make better precision. It could help making decision support for monitoring water quality of rivers and riparian wetlands.

  8. A tiered assessment framework to evaluate human health risk of contaminated sediment.

    PubMed

    Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Bay, Steven M

    2015-07-01

    For sediment contaminated with bioaccumulative pollutants (e.g., PCBs and organochorine pesticides), human consumption of seafood that contain bioaccumulated sediment-derived contaminants is a well-established exposure pathway. Historically, regulation and management of this bioaccumulation pathway has focused on site-specific risk assessment. The state of California (United States) is supporting the development of a consistent and quantitative sediment assessment framework to aid in interpreting a narrative objective to protect human health. The conceptual basis of this framework focuses on 2 key questions: 1) do observed pollutant concentrations in seafood from a given site pose unacceptable health risks to human consumers? and 2) is sediment contamination at a site a significant contributor to seafood contamination? The first question is evaluated by interpreting seafood tissue concentrations at the site, based on health risk calculations. The second question is evaluated by interpreting site-specific sediment chemistry data using a food web bioaccumulation model. The assessment framework includes 3 tiers (screening assessment, site assessment, and refined site assessment), which enables the assessment to match variations in data availability, site complexity, and study objectives. The second and third tiers use a stochastic simulation approach, incorporating information on variability and uncertainty of key parameters, such as seafood contaminant concentration and consumption rate by humans. The framework incorporates site-specific values for sensitive parameters and statewide values for difficult to obtain or less sensitive parameters. The proposed approach advances risk assessment policy by incorporating local data into a consistent region-wide problem formulation, applying best available science in a streamlined fashion. PMID:25641876

  9. A tiered assessment framework to evaluate human health risk of contaminated sediment.

    PubMed

    Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Bay, Steven M

    2015-07-01

    For sediment contaminated with bioaccumulative pollutants (e.g., PCBs and organochorine pesticides), human consumption of seafood that contain bioaccumulated sediment-derived contaminants is a well-established exposure pathway. Historically, regulation and management of this bioaccumulation pathway has focused on site-specific risk assessment. The state of California (United States) is supporting the development of a consistent and quantitative sediment assessment framework to aid in interpreting a narrative objective to protect human health. The conceptual basis of this framework focuses on 2 key questions: 1) do observed pollutant concentrations in seafood from a given site pose unacceptable health risks to human consumers? and 2) is sediment contamination at a site a significant contributor to seafood contamination? The first question is evaluated by interpreting seafood tissue concentrations at the site, based on health risk calculations. The second question is evaluated by interpreting site-specific sediment chemistry data using a food web bioaccumulation model. The assessment framework includes 3 tiers (screening assessment, site assessment, and refined site assessment), which enables the assessment to match variations in data availability, site complexity, and study objectives. The second and third tiers use a stochastic simulation approach, incorporating information on variability and uncertainty of key parameters, such as seafood contaminant concentration and consumption rate by humans. The framework incorporates site-specific values for sensitive parameters and statewide values for difficult to obtain or less sensitive parameters. The proposed approach advances risk assessment policy by incorporating local data into a consistent region-wide problem formulation, applying best available science in a streamlined fashion.

  10. Proceedings of Conference XIII, evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Charonnat, Barbara B.

    1981-01-01

    The participants in the conference concluded that a great deal of useful research has been performed in the national Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers and that the state-of-knowledge concerning the evaluation of seismic hazards and risk has been advanced substantially. Many of the technical issues raised during the conference are less controversial now because of new information and insights gained during the first three years of the expanded research program conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act. Utilization of research results by many groups of users has also improved during this period and further improvement in utilization appears likely. Additional research is still required to resolve more completely the many complex technical issues summarized above and described in the papers contained in the proceedings. Improved certainty of research results on the evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk is required before full utilization can be made by state and local governments who deal. with people frequently having a different perception of the hazard and its risk to them than that perceived by scientists or engineers. Each of the papers contained in the proceedings contain throughtful recommendations for improving the state-of-knowledge. Two papers, in particular, focussed on this particular theme. The first was presented by Lynn Sykes in the Geologic Keynote Address. He identified geographic areas throughout the world which may be considered as counterparts or analogues of seismic zones in the United States. He concluded that much can be learned about prediction, tectonic settings, earthquake hazards, and earthquake risk for sites in the United States by studying their tectonic analogues in other countries. The second paper was presented by John Blume in the Engineering Keynote Address. He suggested 20 specific research topics that, in his opinion, will significantly advance the state

  11. Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

    SciTech Connect

    Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

    1998-01-01

    Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

  12. Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Background Current approaches to chemical screening, prioritization, and assessment are being reenvisioned, driven by innovations in chemical safety testing, new chemical regulations, and demand for information on human and environmental impacts of chemicals. To conceptualize these changes through the lens of a prevalent disease, the Breast Cancer and Chemicals Policy project convened an interdisciplinary expert panel to investigate methods for identifying chemicals that may increase breast cancer risk. Methods Based on a review of current evidence, the panel identified key biological processes whose perturbation may alter breast cancer risk. We identified corresponding assays to develop the Hazard Identification Approach for Breast Carcinogens (HIA-BC), a method for detecting chemicals that may raise breast cancer risk. Finally, we conducted a literature-based pilot test of the HIA-BC. Results The HIA-BC identifies assays capable of detecting alterations to biological processes relevant to breast cancer, including cellular and molecular events, tissue changes, and factors that alter susceptibility. In the pilot test of the HIA-BC, chemicals associated with breast cancer all demonstrated genotoxic or endocrine activity, but not necessarily both. Significant data gaps persist. Conclusions This approach could inform the development of toxicity testing that targets mechanisms relevant to breast cancer, providing a basis for identifying safer chemicals. The study identified important end points not currently evaluated by federal testing programs, including altered mammary gland development, Her2 activation, progesterone receptor activity, prolactin effects, and aspects of estrogen receptor β activity. This approach could be extended to identify the biological processes and screening methods relevant for other common diseases. Citation Schwarzman MR, Ackerman JM, Dairkee SH, Fenton SE, Johnson D, Navarro KM, Osborne G, Rudel RA, Solomon GM, Zeise L, Janssen S. 2015

  13. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

  14. Regional risk assessment of the Puyallup River Watershed and the evaluation of low impact development in meeting management goals.

    PubMed

    Hines, Eleanor E; Landis, Wayne G

    2014-04-01

    The Relative Risk Model (RRM) is a tool used to calculate and assess the likelihood of effects to endpoints when multiple stressors occur in complex ecological systems. In this study, a Bayesian network was used to calculate relative risk and estimate uncertainty (BN-RRM) in the Puyallup River Watershed. First, we calculated the risk of prespawn mortality of coho salmon. Second, we evaluated the effect of low impact development (LID) as a means to reduce risk. Prespawner mortality in coho salmon within the Puyallup watershed was the endpoint selected for this study. A conceptual model showing causal pathways between stressors and endpoints was created to show where linkages exist. A relative risk gradient was found throughout the watershed. The lowest risk was found in risk regions with the least urban development, and the greatest risk of prespawner mortality was found in the highly urbanized risk regions with the largest amounts of impervious surface. LID did reduce risk but only when implemented at high intensities within the urban watersheds. The structure of the BN-RRM also provides a framework for water quality- and quantity-related endpoints within this and other watersheds. The framework is also useful for evaluating different strategies for remediation or restoration activities. The adaptability of using BNs for a relative risk assessment provides opportunities for the model to be adapted for other watersheds in the Puget Sound and Salish Sea region.

  15. Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Sexton, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

  16. [Heavy metals distribution characteristics and ecological risk evaluation in surface sediments of dammed Jinshan lake].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xiao-Hong; Liu, Long-Mei; Chen, Xi; Chen, Zhi-Gang; Zhang, Jin-Ping; Li, Yi-Min; Liu, Biao

    2014-11-01

    In order to reveal the pollution loading of heavy metals in Dammed Jinshan lake, six heavy metals (As, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn, Cr) from 18 sediment samples were analyzed using ICP, and the distribution characteristics of heavy metals in the sediment were comprehensively evaluated through concentration coefficient, geo-acumulation indexes, potential ecological risk evaluation and traceability analysis. The results showed that (1) the average contents of As, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd were 23.22, 26.20, 24.42, 143.12, 245.30 and 0.67 mg x kg(-1), respectively, in the surface sediments of dammed Jinshan Lake. The average contents of Pb and Cu were lower than the primary standard and secondary standards of soil environmental quality standards. The average contents of Zn and Cr were lower than the primary standard and higher than the secondary standards of soil environmental quality standards. The average contents of As and Cd were higher than the primary and secondary standards of soil environmental quality standards. From the spatial distribution, the contents of Pb and Zn were the highest at sampling site No. 1, which was located at the Beigushan Square. The contents of As,Cu, Cr, Cd were the highest at sampling sites Nos. 12, 3, 14, and 7, respectively; (2) The order of concentration coefficient was As > Cr > Cd > Pb > Zn > Cu, which indicated that the enrichment amount of As was the highest and that of Cu was the lowest; (3) Based on the geo-acumulation indexes, the Cu is clean and Pb, Zn, Cd is the light pollution and As, Cr moderate pollution; (4) The order of Potential ecological risk coefficient was Cd > As > Cr > Pb > Cu > Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Zn were of light ecological risk and As, Cd were of medium ecological risk. From the spatial distribution, the sampling sites Nos. 1, 6, 7 and 12 had medium potential ecological risk, and the rest sample points had slight potential ecological risk; (5) The principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the main reason for the differences

  17. Using high-resolution lidar data to evaluate natural hazards and risk in Oregon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madin, I.; Burns, W.; Priest, G. R.; Allan, J. C.; Roberts, J.

    2013-12-01

    Since 2007, the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) has been collecting large areas of high resolution lidar area in Oregon for a wide range of applications. One of DOGAMI's most important uses of the data is to map and model natural hazards, and to evaluate the risk posed by those hazards. Lidar data allow for more accurate, comprehensive and affordable mapping and modeling of hazards, and lidar derived inventories of structures allow more accurate and comprehensive estimates of risk. DOGAMI has applied this combination of enhanced hazard and risk assessment to volcano hazards, landslides and debris flow hazards, earthquake hazards, flood and channel migration hazards and coastal erosion and tsunami hazards. For volcano hazards lidar provides accurate topography for lahar inundation models. For landslides, lidar is the definitive tool for mapping existing landslides and debris flow deposits, and lidar topography essential for accurate modeling of susceptibility. Lidar imagery has identified dozens of previously unknown Quaternary fault scarps in Oregon, although virtually none of the data collection has targeted fault hazards. Lidar topography is essential for modeling flood flows and for delineating flood zones accurately, and can be used as a base for registration of historical photography to map channel migration, and to identify areas of potential avulsion in the modern floodplain. Serial lidar can quantify coastal change, and detailed and accurate topography provide a base for mapping coastal landforms that control erosion rates and processes. Lidar-derived topography provides the basis for the terrestrial portions of the high resolution numerical models of tsunami propagation and inundation that DOGAMI has prepared for the entire Oregon coast. These hazard studies are coupled with detailed and accurate risk and exposure analysis based on building footprint and infrastructure mapping based on lidar. This allows us an accurate and

  18. [Pollution evaluation and health risk assessment of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou].

    PubMed

    Li, Ping; Xue, Su-Yin; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

    2014-03-01

    In order to evaluate the contamination and health risk of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou, samples of atmospheric deposition were collected from 11 sampling sites respectively and their concentrations of heavy metals were determined. The results showed that the average contents of Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn and Mn were 82.22, 130.31, 4.34, 88.73, 40.64, 369.23 and 501.49 mg x kg(-1), respectively. There was great difference among different functional areas for all elements except Mn. According to the results, the enrichment factor score of Mn was close to 1, while the enrichment of Zn, Ni, Cu and Cr was more serious, and Pb and Cd were extremely enriched. The assessment results of geoaccumulation index of potential ecological risk indicated that the pollution of Cd in the atmospheric deposition of Lanzhou should be classified as extreme degree, and that of Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb as between slight and extreme degrees, and Cr as practically uncontaminated. Contaminations of atmospheric dust by heavy metals in October to the next March were more serious than those from April to August. Health risk assessment indicated that the heavy metals in atmospheric deposition were mainly ingested by human bodies through hand-mouth ingestion. The non-cancer risk was higher for children than for adults. The order of non-cancer hazard indexes of heavy metals was Pb > Cr > Cd > Cu > Ni > Zn. The non-cancer hazard indexes and carcinogen risks of heavy metals were both lower than their threshold values, suggesting that they will not harm the health.

  19. Evaluation of testicular dose and associated risk from common pelvis radiation therapy in Iran.

    PubMed

    Shanei, Ahmad; Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi, Milad

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) was also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that, the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10,000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a correlation between TD and patient's pelvis size (r = 0.275, P < 0.001). Using the student's t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

  20. Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Nitika; Ayoko, Godwin A; Salthammer, Tunga; Morawska, Lidia

    2015-10-01

    In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on children's health. Within this context, through the application of a maximum cumulative ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health-related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the hazard index. Maximum cumulative ratio and hazard index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92 % of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the 'low concern' group, and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus aids in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment. PMID:26003088

  1. Evaluation of testicular dose and associated risk from common pelvis radiation therapy in Iran.

    PubMed

    Shanei, Ahmad; Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi, Milad

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) was also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that, the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10,000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a correlation between TD and patient's pelvis size (r = 0.275, P < 0.001). Using the student's t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk. PMID:25022453

  2. Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Nitika; Ayoko, Godwin A; Salthammer, Tunga; Morawska, Lidia

    2015-10-01

    In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on children's health. Within this context, through the application of a maximum cumulative ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health-related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the hazard index. Maximum cumulative ratio and hazard index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92 % of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the 'low concern' group, and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus aids in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment.

  3. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  4. Intake risk and dose evaluation methods for workers in radiochemistry labs of a medical cyclotron facility.

    PubMed

    Calandrino, Riccardo; del Vecchio, Antonella; Savi, Annarita; Todde, Sergio; Belloli, Sara

    2009-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to evaluate the risks and doses for the internal contamination of the radiochemistry staff in a high workload medical cyclotron facility. The doses from internal contamination derive from the inhalation of radioactive gas leakage from the cells by personnel involved in the synthesis processes and are calculated from urine sample measurements. Various models are considered for the calculation of the effective committed dose from the analysis of these urine samples, and the results are compared with data obtained from local environmental measurement of the radioactivity released inside the lab.

  5. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  6. An overview of BWR Mark-1 containment venting risk implications: An evaluation of potential Mark-1 containment improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Wagner, K.C.; Dallman, R.J.; Galyean, W.J.

    1989-06-01

    This report supplements containment venting risk evaluations performed for the Mark-I Containment Performance Improvement (CPI) Program. Quantitative evaluations using simplified containment event trees for station blackout sequences were performed to evaluate potential risk reduction offered by containment venting, and improved automatic depressurization system with a dedicated power source, and an additional supply of water to either the containment sprays or the vessel with a dedicated power source. The risk calculations were based on the Draft NUREG-1150 results for Peach Bottom with selected enhancements. Several sensitivity studies were performed to investigate phenomenological, operational, and equipment performance uncertainties. Qualitative risk evaluations were provided for loss of long-term containment heat removal and anticipated transients without scram for the same set of improvements. A limited discussion is provided on the generic applicability of these results to other plants with Mark-I containments. 23 refs., 15 figs., 13 tabs.

  7. Evaluation of snow-glide risk by modelling and on-site assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitinger, Georg; Meusburger, Katrin; Rüdisser, Johannes; Tasser, Erich; Höller, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Abandonment of agricultural practices on alpine grasslands lead to increasing snow-glide intensities due to lower surface roughness of the vegetation. Beneath the danger of snow-glide avalanches snow gliding leads to soil erosion and damaging of young trees at afforested sites. Especially in high altitudes afforestation is important to protect settlements and infrastructure against snow-gliding and glide avalanches. Snow-glide damages are therefore of particular danger for these afforestation sites. In the light of future climate change and warmer winter periods, studies already state increasing snow-glide risk and the occurrence of glide avalanches. This study presents an approach to evaluate snow-glide risk by combining the refined Spatial Snow Glide Model (SSGM) first published by Leitinger et al. (2008) and the Guidelines to Identify Snow-Glide Areas (GISGA) proposed by Höller (2012), an on-site risk analyses approach. First, GISGA was validated on the basis of corresponding snow-glide measurements. Second, a potential snow-glide map for an area in the Eastern Alps covering 20000 km² was modelled. The results revealed considerable areas of high snow-glide risk. Using the average amount of winter precipitation between 1990 and 2010 in the SSGM shows higher vulnerability for the northern part of the study area (Tyrol, Austria) than in the southern part (South Tyrol, Italy) because of lower winter precipitation. However, running the SSGM based on the highest winter precipitation registered in the study area between 1801 and 2003 exhibits the possibility of very high snow-glide risk for most parts of the study area with significant increasing risk in the southern part. Given the very probable future climate during winter periods with increasing temperatures but uncertain development of precipitation patterns, snow-glide activity and linked glide avalanches might further increase at least in areas and altitudes with solid precipitation. In combination with the

  8. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as

  9. Girlfriends: evaluation of an HIV-risk reduction intervention for adult transgender women.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Raekiela D; Bimbi, David S; Joseph, Heather A; Margolis, Andrew D; Parsons, Jeffrey T

    2011-10-01

    This study evaluated Girlfriends, a behavioral HIV intervention, developed for male-to-female transgender persons, for whom there are few scientifically evaluated prevention programs. The Girlfriends intervention included four group-level sessions. We used a single group, pre-post test design to assess changes in sexual risk behaviors at 3-month follow-up. We enrolled 63 transgender women into the study. Forty-six percent were Hispanic and 35% were African American. Three months after the intervention, participants had fewer sexual partners (p = .043) and were less likely to have any unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with male exchange partners (p = .013) and unprotected sex at last vaginal or anal sex episode with female and male partners (p = .039). The findings of this study are promising. We observed behavioral effects among a largely ethnic minority sample of transgender women. Replication with a larger sample and a control group is needed.

  10. Iterative Evaluation in a Mobile Counseling and Testing Program to Reach People of Color at Risk for HIV--New Strategies Improve Program Acceptability, Effectiveness, and Evaluation Capabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

    2011-01-01

    This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's…

  11. Level 3 baseline risk evaluation for Building 3506 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Golden, K.M.; Robers, S.K.; Cretella, F.M.

    1994-12-01

    This report presents the results of the Level 3 Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) performed on Building 3506 located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This BRE is intended to provide an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects (current or future) posed by contaminants at the facility. The decision was made to conduct a Level 3 (least rigorous) BRE because only residual contamination exists in the building. Future plans for the facility (demolition) also preclude a rigorous analysis. Site characterization activities for Building 3506 were conducted in fall of 1993. Concrete core samples were taken from the floors and walls of both the cell and the east gallery. These cores were analyzed for radionuclides and organic and inorganic chemicals. Smear samples and direct radiation measurements were also collected. Sediment exists on the floor of the cell and was also analyzed. To adequately characterize the risks posed by the facility, receptors for both current and potential future land uses were evaluated. For the current land use conditions, two receptors were evaluated. The first receptor is a hypothetical maintenance worker who spends 250 days (8 hours/day) for 25 years working in the facility. The remaining receptor evaluated is a hypothetical S and M worker who spends 2 days (8 hours/day) per year for 25 years working within the facility. This particular receptor best exemplifies the current worker scenario for the facility. The two current exposure scenarios and parameters of exposure (e.g., inhalation and ingestion rates) have been developed to provide a conservative (i.e. health protective) estimate of potential exposure.

  12. Evaluation of low back pain risks in a beef skinning operation.

    PubMed

    Das, B; Sengupta, A K

    2000-01-01

    The low back pain risks in a beef skinning operation at a high stand kill floor workstation was evaluated. The increases in compressive forces at lower back (L5/S1) between normal slump (back angle 25 degrees, measured in the sagittal plane) and severe (45 degrees ) and between normal slump and very severe (70 degrees ) bent back postures were 387 N or 28% and 616 N or 45%, respectively. The high spine load coupled with high level of repetition can have a high probability of fatigue failure in the spine structural members. Non-neutral back posture for a large portion of the total work time can be a low back pain risk factor. The videotape analysis showed that the times involved during the task performance for the bent back (more than 25 degrees ) and severe bent back (more than 45 degrees ) were 48.4 and 33.5% of the total cycle time, respectively. The upper limit from OWAS (Ovako Working Posture Analysis System) for bent back posture is 30% of the total cycle time. The bent and twisted back posture (both more than 25 degrees ) time was 10.4% compared to OWAS limit of 5%. This indicated that actions are needed in the near future to alleviate the risk of low back pain. Ergonomics redesign of the workstation was recommended for the operation.

  13. An evaluation of a Canadian peer-driven injury prevention programme for high-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Tenn, L; Dewis, M E

    1996-02-01

    The mortality and morbidity resulting from serious trauma in adolescence, particularly head and spinal cord injury, constitutes a health problem of major proportions. Although many community-based prevention programmes have been reported in this last decade, few of these describe an evaluation component. In this study, a school-based prevention programme was developed by a peer group and presented by them to high-risk adolescents. The study aimed to test the efficacy of this intervention compared to the delivery of a prevention presentation to a similar group by a health care professional and compared to a control group. Measures of health locus of control, self-efficacy and behavioural intent were supplemented by open-ended items related to risk-taking behaviour change. At post-test and at 4-month follow-up, there was little evidence in the quantitative measures to support the effectiveness of the intervention for reducing injury risk factors. More encouraging findings were seen in the qualitative data. Explanations for why the intervention did not result in the expected outcomes are offered.

  14. Evaluating heavy metal accumulation and potential health risks in vegetables irrigated with treated wastewater.

    PubMed

    Qureshi, Asad Sarwar; Hussain, M Iftikhar; Ismail, Shoaib; Khan, Qaisar Mehmood

    2016-11-01

    Effect of irrigation with treated municipal wastewater on the accumulation of heavy metals in soils and food crops and potential health risks to human via consumption of these food crops are evaluated. The higher concentrations of iron (Fe), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr) and zinc (Zn) were found in lettuce, radish and carrots, respectively. However, trace metal levels in all vegetables were far lower than the food safety criteria of World Health Organization and European Union. Bioaccumulation factors (BAF) for heavy metals in different vegetables showed a trend in the order: Fe > Zn > Cu > Cr. The trends of estimated dietary intake (EDIs) for adults were in the order of Fe > Zn > Cr > Cu. The highest level of total coliform was recorded in spinach, followed by radish, egg plant, tomatoes and lettuce. The low uptake of heavy metals by vegetables shows that the health risks for human are insignificant. As the variations in transfer factor of metals is related to absorption capability of vegetables, soil properties and nutrient management, the risk of human exposure to metal contamination can be significantly reduced by selecting appropriate crops. PMID:27521639

  15. Evaluation of variation in the phosphoinositide-3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha oncogene and breast cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, K N; Garcia-Closas, M; Fredericksen, Z; Kosel, M; Pankratz, V S; Hopper, J L; Dite, G S; Apicella, C; Southey, M C; Schmidt, M K; Broeks, A; Van ‘t Veer, L J; Tollenaar, R A E M; Fasching, P A; Beckmann, M W; Hein, A; Ekici, A B; Johnson, N; Peto, J; dos Santos Silva, I; Gibson, L; Sawyer, E; Tomlinson, I; Kerin, M J; Chanock, S; Lissowska, J; Hunter, D J; Hoover, R N; Thomas, G D; Milne, R L; Pérez, JI Arias; González-Neira, A; Benítez, J; Burwinkel, B; Meindl, A; Schmutzler, R K; Bartrar, C R; Hamann, U; Ko, Y D; Brüning, T; Chang-Claude, J; Hein, R; Wang-Gohrke, S; Dörk, T; Schürmann, P; Bremer, M; Hillemanns, P; Bogdanova, N; Zalutsky, J V; Rogov, Y I; Antonenkova, N; Lindblom, A; Margolin, S; Mannermaa, A; Kataja, V; Kosma, V-M; Hartikainen, J; Chenevix-Trench, G; Chen, X; Peterlongo, P; Bonanni, B; Bernard, L; Manoukian, S; Wang, X; Cerhan, J; Vachon, C M; Olson, J; Giles, G G; Baglietto, L; McLean, C A; Severi, G; John, E M; Miron, A; Winqvist, R; Pylkäs, K; Jukkola-Vuorinen, A; Grip, M; Andrulis, I; Knight, J A; Glendon, G; Mulligan, A M; Cox, A; Brock, I W; Elliott, G; Cross, S S; Pharoah, P P; Dunning, A M; Pooley, K A; Humphreys, M K; Wang, J; Kang, D; Yoo, K-Y; Noh, D-Y; Sangrajrang, S; Gabrieau, V; Brennan, P; McKay, J; Anton-Culver, H; Ziogas, A; Couch, F J; Easton, D F

    2011-01-01

    Background: Somatic mutations in phosphoinositide-3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha (PIK3CA) are frequent in breast tumours and have been associated with oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 overexpression, lymph node metastasis and poor survival. The goal of this study was to evaluate the association between inherited variation in this oncogene and risk of breast cancer. Methods: A single-nucleotide polymorphism from the PIK3CA locus that was associated with breast cancer in a study of Caucasian breast cancer cases and controls from the Mayo Clinic (MCBCS) was genotyped in 5436 cases and 5280 controls from the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) study and in 30 949 cases and 29 788 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Results: Rs1607237 was significantly associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer in MCBCS, CGEMS and all studies of white Europeans combined (odds ratio (OR)=0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–0.99, P=4.6 × 10−3), but did not reach significance in the BCAC replication study alone (OR=0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.01, P=0.139). Conclusion: Common germline variation in PIK3CA does not have a strong influence on the risk of breast cancer PMID:22033276

  16. Evaluating heavy metal accumulation and potential health risks in vegetables irrigated with treated wastewater.

    PubMed

    Qureshi, Asad Sarwar; Hussain, M Iftikhar; Ismail, Shoaib; Khan, Qaisar Mehmood

    2016-11-01

    Effect of irrigation with treated municipal wastewater on the accumulation of heavy metals in soils and food crops and potential health risks to human via consumption of these food crops are evaluated. The higher concentrations of iron (Fe), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr) and zinc (Zn) were found in lettuce, radish and carrots, respectively. However, trace metal levels in all vegetables were far lower than the food safety criteria of World Health Organization and European Union. Bioaccumulation factors (BAF) for heavy metals in different vegetables showed a trend in the order: Fe > Zn > Cu > Cr. The trends of estimated dietary intake (EDIs) for adults were in the order of Fe > Zn > Cr > Cu. The highest level of total coliform was recorded in spinach, followed by radish, egg plant, tomatoes and lettuce. The low uptake of heavy metals by vegetables shows that the health risks for human are insignificant. As the variations in transfer factor of metals is related to absorption capability of vegetables, soil properties and nutrient management, the risk of human exposure to metal contamination can be significantly reduced by selecting appropriate crops.

  17. Health risks of electromagnetic fields. Part I: Evaluation and assessment of electric and magnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Habash, Riadh W Y; Brodsky, Lynn M; Leiss, William; Krewski, Daniel; Repacholi, Michael

    2003-01-01

    Exposure to electric and magnetic fields (EMF) emanating from the generation, distribution, and utilization of electricity is widespread. The major debate in recent years has focused on the possibility that exposure to EMF may result in adverse health consequences, including the development of cancer. This article provides a review and evaluation of potential health risks associated with residential and occupational exposure to EMF. In addition to reviewing data from laboratory, epidemiology, and clinical studies, we examine exposure data from field measurement surveys and exposure guidelines that have been established for EMF. Currently, the evidence in support of an association between EMF and childhood cancer is limited, although this issue warrants further investigation. Evidence of an association between EMF exposure and adult cancers, derived largely from occupational settings, is inconsistent, precluding clear conclusions. There is little evidence of an association between EMF and noncancer health effects. Epidemiological studies of EMF and population health are limited by exposure measurement error and the lack of a clear dose/response relationship in studies suggesting possible health risks. Further research is needed to clarify the ambiguous findings from present studies and to determine if EMF exposure poses a health risk. PMID:15018215

  18. Application of ecological risk assessment principles to evaluation of oil spill impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Brannon, E.L.; Neff, J.M.; Pearson, W.H.; Stubblefield, W.A.; Maki, A.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecological risk assessments are often used prospectively to predict the consequences of human activities on the environment. Laboratory and field studies were conducted to evaluate the ecological impacts to commercial fishery resources resulting from the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Using the ecorisk paradigm, each of the studies correlated concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons in different environmental compartments with observed biological effects in local populations of herring and pink salmon. Hydrocarbon concentrations in the water column of the Sound were elevated for a short time after the spill, but 99.7% of the samples remained below the Alaska water quality standard and returned to background levels within a few months. PAH concentrations in sediments and eggs correlated with a very low degree of injury to early life stages of herring and salmon. Overall, effects of the spill on populations of herring and pink salmon were minimal and post-spill harvests of the year classes at greater risk of spill injury in the two years following the spill were at or near record levels. The program underscores the utility and strength of the risk assessment paradigm to identify contaminant related injury while considering effects attributable to natural ecosystem variability.

  19. [Evaluation of the risk of overheating and displacement of orthodontic devices in magnetic resonance imaging].

    PubMed

    Yassi, K; Ziane, F; Bardinet, E; Moinard, M; Veyret, B; Chateil, J F

    2007-02-01

    The use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the exploration of the orofacial region of patients who have orthodontic appliances can be disturbed by artifacts, with a theoretical risk of displacement and overheating of the different materials used in odontology. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the thermal effects and the risk of displacement induced by MRI on certain metallic devices used in orthodontics. The results show a very moderate increase in temperature of the materials during MRI exposure, less than 1 degrees C, in particular in the metal wire linking the brackets. The maximal forces observed were on the order of 0.27 N. The risk of detachment and displacement seems to be nonexistent at 1.5 Tesla when the usual recommendations are respected. Temporary removal of the wire and verification of the adhesive is recommended. However, priority should be given to nonmagnetic or slightly magnetic material to limit artifacts as much as possible when exploring the head region.

  20. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2015-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  1. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl (Compiler); Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  2. Evaluating the impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus on cardiovascular risk in persons with metabolic syndrome using the UKPDS risk engine

    PubMed Central

    Ogedengbe, O Stephen; Ezeani, Ignatius U; Chukwuonye, Ijezie I; Anyabolu, Ernest N; Ozor, Ikemefuna I; Eregie, Aihanuwa

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of coexistence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on the estimated cardiovascular risk as calculated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetic Study risk engine (UKPDS-RE) and also to determine the impact of the coexistence of MS and T2DM on the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke. Methodology This is a cross-sectional study in which convenience sampling technique was used to recruit 124 consecutive persons with T2DM and 96 controls using a questionnaire administered technique. The World Health Organization (WHO) criterion was used to define MS and the UKPDS-RE was used to identify persons with increased risk for stroke and those with increased risk for coronary heart disease. The data obtained were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Statistical comparisons were made with chi-square for comparison of proportions. A P-value of less than 0.05 was taken as statistically significant. Results Fifteen subjects were identified as having an increased 10-year risk for stroke and ten as having an increased risk for a coronary event. The odds of a T2DM subject with MS having an increased risk for stroke compared with a T2DM subject without MS was 0.9579≈1 while the odds of a T2DM subject with MS developing an increased risk for a coronary event compared with a T2DM subject without MS was =3.451≈3. Conclusion MS was more common in subjects with T2DM compared with controls (irrespective of the diagnostic criteria used) and MS appears to increase the risk of a coronary event in subjects with T2DM by threefold. Also from this study, MS did not appear to cause an additional increase in the risk of stroke in subjects with T2DM. PMID:26396537

  3. The development of a risk of failure evaluation tool for small dams in Mzingwane Catchment, Zimbabwe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mufute, N. L.; Senzanje, A.; Kaseke, E.

    Small dams in Mzingwane Catchment in southern Zimbabwe are mostly in poor physical condition mainly due to lack of resources for repair and maintenance. Most of these dams are likely to fail thereby adversely affecting water availability and livelihoods in the area. To assist those involved in maintenance, repair and rehabilitation of small dams in resource poor and data sparse areas such as Mzingwane Catchment, a non-probabilistic but numerical risk of failure evaluation tool was developed. The tool helps to systematically, and objectively classify risk of failure of small dams, hence assist in the ranking of dams to prioritise and attend to first. This is important where resources are limited. The tool makes use of factors such as seepage, erosion and others that are traditionally used to assess condition of dams. In the development of the tool, an assessment of the physical condition of 44 (1 medium sized and 43 small dams) dams was done and the factors were identified and listed according to guidelines for design and maintenance of small dams. The description of the extent to which the factors affect the physical condition of small dams was then standardised. This was mainly guided by standard based and risk-based approaches to dam safety evaluation. Cause-effect diagrams were used to determine the stage at which each factor is involved in contributing to dam failure. Weights were then allocated to each factor depending on its stage or level in the process of causing dam failure. Scores were allocated to each factor based on its description and weight. Small dams design and maintenance guidelines were also used to guide the ranking and weighting of the factors. The tool was used to classify 10 dams. The risk of failure was low for one dam, moderate for one, high for four and very high for four dams, two of which had already failed. It was concluded that the tool could be used to rank the risk of failure of small dams in semi-arid areas. The tool needs to be

  4. Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

  5. Event-related potentials show taste and risk effects on food evaluation.

    PubMed

    Ma, Qingguo; Wang, Cuicui; Wu, Yifan; Wang, Xiaoyi

    2014-07-01

    Tastes and claims about unhealthy food are important factors that affect consumption. This study investigated the correlation of the event-related potential (ERP) of the evaluation of processing of food information with the task of positive judgment. Given the information on possible diseases that arise with food consumption, sweet-tasting food elicited more conflict than salty food, and this conflict was reflected by a negative ERP component at 250-500 ms (N400). Moreover, the late positive wave at 500-800 ms that was evoked by presentation of food with the names of chronic diseases that could arise from the consumption of such food was larger than that evoked when acute diseases were presented. Sweet-tasting food caused a more intense conflict with disease-related risk than salty food, and chronic diseases aroused a stronger emotional fear than acute diseases. These findings provide new insights into the N400 component and the neurocognitive processes of evaluating food combined with taste and risk information.

  6. Safety evaluation of disposable baby diapers using principles of quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Rai, Prashant; Lee, Byung-Mu; Liu, Tsung-Yun; Yuhui, Qin; Krause, Edburga; Marsman, Daniel S; Felter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    Baby diapers are complex products consisting of multiple layers of materials, most of which are not in direct contact with the skin. The safety profile of a diaper is determined by the biological properties of individual components and the extent to which the baby is exposed to each component during use. Rigorous evaluation of the toxicological profile and realistic exposure conditions of each material is important to ensure the overall safety of the diaper under normal and foreseeable use conditions. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles may be applied to the safety assessment of diapers and similar products. Exposure to component materials is determined by (1) considering the conditions of product use, (2) the degree to which individual layers of the product are in contact with the skin during use, and (3) the extent to which some components may be extracted by urine and delivered to skin. This assessment of potential exposure is then combined with data from standard safety assessments of components to determine the margin of safety (MOS). This study examined the application of QRA to the safety evaluation of baby diapers, including risk assessments for some diaper ingredient chemicals for which establishment of acceptable and safe exposure levels were demonstrated.

  7. Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.

    PubMed

    Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W

    2011-01-01

    Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision.

  8. Cyto-histologic evaluation of the endometrium in climacteric women at risk for endometrial carcinoma.

    PubMed

    de Aloysio, D; Rocca, G; Miliffi, L

    1986-08-31

    The authors evaluated the diagnostic effectiveness of a triple specimen technique (cyto-histologic) performed by the Perma device. The incidence of endometrial hyperplasia (according to Dallenbach-Hellweg's classification) was estimated in 254 climacteric women selected from outpatients who come spontaneously to the Menopause Clinic of the Obstetrics and Gynecology Department (Bologna University). The selection criterion was the evidence of risk factors for endometrial carcinoma, climacteric bleedings (obesity, late menopause, high blood pressure, diabetes), or endometriotropic estrogen therapy in the postmenopause. Results showed that the cyto-histologic sampling is most useful for diagnosing endometrial hyperplasia and early carcinoma (diagnostic effectiveness: 89.0-93.8%). Also, endometrial hyperplasia was found to have a significant incidence in the group we examined. This incidence was highest in women with climacteric bleedings, secondly in women using high-dose estrogens, and thirdly in women with risk factors for endometrial carcinoma. When evaluating the different kinds of endometrial hyperplasia, we never found adenomatous hyperplasia in women on estrogen therapy. Affinity between histologic and cytologic classes was around 50% in endometrial hyperplasia and 100% in early carcinoma. This emphasizes that both samplings are needed to perform an accurate diagnosis.

  9. Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

    2016-04-01

    To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

  10. Fate and transport evaluation of potential leaching risks from cadmium telluride photovoltaics.

    PubMed

    Sinha, Parikhit; Balas, Robert; Krueger, Lisa; Wade, Andreas

    2012-07-01

    Fate and transport analysis has been performed to evaluate potential exposures to cadmium (Cd) from cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaics (PV) for rainwater leaching from broken modules in a commercial building scenario. Leaching from broken modules is modeled using the worst-case scenario of total release of Cd, and residential screening levels are used to evaluate potential health impacts to on-site workers and off-site residents. A rooftop installation was considered rather than a ground-mount installation because rainwater runoff is concentrated via building downspouts in a rooftop installation rather than being dispersed across large areas in a ground-mount installation. Fate and transport of Cd from leachate to soil are modeled using equilibrium soil/soil-water partitioning. Subsequent migration to ambient air as windblown dust is evaluated with a screening Gaussian plume dispersion model, and migration to groundwater is evaluated with a dilution-attenuation factor approach. Exposure point concentrations in soil, air, and groundwater are one to six orders of magnitude below conservative (residential soil, residential air, drinking water) human health screening levels in both a California and southern Germany (Baden-Württemberg) exposure scenario. Potential exposures to Cd from rainwater leaching of broken modules in a commercial building scenario are highly unlikely to pose a potential health risk to on-site workers or off-site residents.

  11. Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  12. Evaluating the fall risk among elderly population by choice step reaction test.

    PubMed

    Wang, Donghai; Zhang, Jian; Sun, Yuliang; Zhu, Wenfei; Tian, Shiliu; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Falls during daily activities are often associated with injuries and physical disabilities, thereby affecting quality of life among elder adults. Balance control, which is crucial in avoiding falls, is composed of two elements: muscle strength and central nervous system (CNS) control. A number of studies have reported that reduced muscle strength raises the risk of falling. However, to date there has been only limited research focused on the relationship between fall risk and the CNS. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between CNS and risk of falling among the elderly. A total of 140 elderly people (92 females and 48 males) were divided into faller and nonfaller groups based on questionnaire responses concerning falls in their daily life. Participants undertook a choice step reaction test in which they were required to respond to random visual stimuli using foot movements as fast as possible in the left or right directions. Response time was quantified as premotor time (PMT) and motor time (MT). In addition, the participants' electro-myography data were recorded during the choice step reaction test. A maximal isokinetic torque test was also performed. PMT was greater in the fallers than in the nonfallers group. There was a significant difference between fall status and direction on PMT. PMT of the left limb in nonfallers was faster than the right, but in fallers there was no difference between left and right limbs. A similar phenomenon was also observed for MT. There were significant differences between fallers and nonfallers in maximum isokinetic torque at knee and ankle joints. The correct rate of PMT was higher than other variables, such as MT and maximal isokinetic torque, in evaluating elderly fall risk by using logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that PMT in the choice step reaction test could be a useful parameter to assess risk of fall among elder adults. In addition, decreased maximal isokinetic torque was related to greater PMT

  13. Evaluating the fall risk among elderly population by choice step reaction test

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Donghai; Zhang, Jian; Sun, Yuliang; Zhu, Wenfei; Tian, Shiliu; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Falls during daily activities are often associated with injuries and physical disabilities, thereby affecting quality of life among elder adults. Balance control, which is crucial in avoiding falls, is composed of two elements: muscle strength and central nervous system (CNS) control. A number of studies have reported that reduced muscle strength raises the risk of falling. However, to date there has been only limited research focused on the relationship between fall risk and the CNS. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between CNS and risk of falling among the elderly. A total of 140 elderly people (92 females and 48 males) were divided into faller and nonfaller groups based on questionnaire responses concerning falls in their daily life. Participants undertook a choice step reaction test in which they were required to respond to random visual stimuli using foot movements as fast as possible in the left or right directions. Response time was quantified as premotor time (PMT) and motor time (MT). In addition, the participants’ electro-myography data were recorded during the choice step reaction test. A maximal isokinetic torque test was also performed. PMT was greater in the fallers than in the nonfallers group. There was a significant difference between fall status and direction on PMT. PMT of the left limb in nonfallers was faster than the right, but in fallers there was no difference between left and right limbs. A similar phenomenon was also observed for MT. There were significant differences between fallers and nonfallers in maximum isokinetic torque at knee and ankle joints. The correct rate of PMT was higher than other variables, such as MT and maximal isokinetic torque, in evaluating elderly fall risk by using logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that PMT in the choice step reaction test could be a useful parameter to assess risk of fall among elder adults. In addition, decreased maximal isokinetic torque was related to greater

  14. Fractures of the Sacrum After Chemoradiation for Rectal Carcinoma: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Radiographic Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Han Jo; Boland, Patrick J.; Meredith, Dennis S.; Lis, Eric; Zhang Zhigang; Shi Weiji; Yamada, Yoshiya J.; Goodman, Karyn A.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: Sacral insufficiency fractures after adjuvant radiation for rectal carcinoma can present similarly to recurrent disease. As a complication associated with pelvic radiation, it is important to be aware of the incidence and risk factors associated with sacral fractures in the clinical assessment of these patients. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2007, a total of 582 patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma received adjuvant chemoradiation and surgical excision. Of these, 492 patients had imaging studies available for review. Hospital records and imaging studies from all 492 patients were retrospectively evaluated to identify risk factors associated with developing a sacral insufficiency fracture. Results: With a median follow-up time of 3.5 years, the incidence of sacral fractures was 7.1% (35/492). The 4-year sacral fracture free rate was 0.91. Univariate analysis showed that increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years), female sex, and history of osteoporosis were significantly associated with shorter time to sacral fracture (P=.01, P=.004, P=.001, respectively). There was no significant difference in the time to sacral fracture for patients based on stage, radiotherapy dose, or chemotherapy regimen. Multivariate analysis showed increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-5.13, P=.01), female sex (HR = 2.64, CI = 1.29-5.38, P=.008), and history of osteoporosis (HR = 3.23, CI = 1.23-8.50, P=.02) were independent risk factors associated with sacral fracture. Conclusions: Sacral insufficiency fractures after pelvic radiation for rectal carcinoma occur more commonly than previously described. Independent risk factors associated with fracture were osteoporosis, female sex, and age greater than 60 years.

  15. Data available for evaluating the risks and benefits of MTBE and ethanol as alternative fuel oxygenates.

    PubMed

    Williams, Pamela R D; Cushing, Colleen A; Sheehan, Patrick J

    2003-10-01

    The wide-scale use of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in gasoline has resulted in substantial public controversy and action to ban or control its use due to perceived impacts on water quality. Because oxygenates are still required under federal law, considerable research has focused on ethanol as a substitute for MTBE. In this article, we summarize the currently available literature on the air and water quality risks and benefits of MTBE versus ethanol as alternative fuel oxygenates. We find that MTBE-fuel blends are likely to have substantial air quality benefits; ethanol-fuel blends appear to offer similar benefits, but these may be at least partially negated because of ethanol's propensity to increase emissions and ambient concentrations of some air contaminants. Releases of gasoline containing either MTBE or ethanol could have an impact on some drinking water sources, although the impacts associated with MTBE tend to relate to aesthetics (i.e., taste and odor), whereas the impacts associated with ethanol generally relate to health risk (i.e., greater exposure to gasoline constituents such as benzene). It is likely that these water quality impacts will be outweighed by the air quality benefits associated with MTBE and perhaps ethanol use, which affect a much larger population. A lack of data on environmental exposures and associated health impacts hinders the completion of a comprehensive quantitative risk-benefit analysis, and the available air and water quality data should be evaluated in a broader risk-management context, which considers the potential life-cycle impacts, costs, and feasibility associated with alternative fuel oxygenates.

  16. Evaluation of the Intussusception Risk after Pentavalent Rotavirus Vaccination in Finnish Infants

    PubMed Central

    Leino, Tuija; Ollgren, Jukka; Strömberg, Nina; Elonsalo, Ulpu

    2016-01-01

    Background An association between rotavirus immunisation and intussusception (IS) has been suggested with present rotavirus vaccines in post-licensure studies. In Finland, rotavirus vaccination programme was implemented in September 2009 using a 2, 3, and 5 months schedule with the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine. By the end of 2013, it is estimated that 719 000 rotavirus vaccine doses have been given in the national programme of which 240 000 were first doses. Nationwide register allows us to evaluate the association between rotavirus vaccination and IS. Methods and Materials Cases of IS diagnosed during 1999–2013 were identified from National Hospital Discharge Register. All cases under 250 days of age diagnosed during 2009–2013 were confirmed by reviewing medical charts. Self-controlled case-series method was used to assess the risk of IS during 1–21 days compared to 22–42 days post vaccination. Findings In register data the relative incidence of IS at 2 months of age between the post and pre vaccination era was 9.1 (95%CI 2.0–84.3). We identified 22 verified cases with date of admission less than 43 days after any of the three rotavirus vaccine doses. The incidence of IS in the risk period after the 1st dose relative to the control period was 2.0 (95% CI 0.5–8.4; p = 0.34.) Number of excess IS cases per 100 000 first vaccine doses was therefore estimated to be 1.04 (95% CI 0.0–2.5), i.e. one additional IS case per 96 000 first doses of rotavirus vaccine (95% CI 54 600 to ∞). There was no risk detected after 2nd and 3rd doses. Conclusion The finding is in line with the recent published estimates. The benefits of rotavirus immunisation programme outweigh possible small risks of intussusception. PMID:26950702

  17. Application of systematic coronary risk evaluation chart to identify chronic myeloid leukemia patients at risk of cardiovascular diseases during nilotinib treatment.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; Molica, Matteo; Zacheo, Irene; Serrao, Alessandra; Alimena, Giuliana

    2015-03-01

    Nilotinib is currently approved for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic (CP) and accelerated phase (AP) after failure of imatinib and in newly diagnosed patients. Atherosclerotic events were retrospectively reported in patients with baseline cardiovascular risk factors during nilotinib treatment. We estimated the risk of developing atherosclerotic events in patients treated with second or first-line nilotinib, with a median follow-up of 48 months, by retrospectively applying the SCORE chart proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and evaluating risk factors at baseline (diabetes, obesity, smoking, and hypertension). Overall, we enrolled in the study 82 CP patients treated frontline (42 CP patients at the dose of 600 mg BID) or after failure of other tyrosine kinase inhibitors (40 CP patients treated with 400 mg BID). The SCORE chart is based on the stratification of sex (male vs female), age (from 40 to 65 years), smoker vs non-smoker, systolic pressure (from 120 to 180 mm Hg), and cholesterol (measured in mmol/l, from 150 to 300 mg/dl). For statistical purposes, we considered patients subdivided in low, moderate, high (with a score >5), and very high risk. There were 48 males and 34 females, median age 51 years (range 22-84). According to WHO classification, 42 patients were classified as normal weight (BMI <25), 26 patients were overweight (BMI 26 ≤ 30), and 14 were obese (BMI >30). Retrospective classification according to the SCORE chart revealed that 27 patients (33 %) were in the low-risk category, 30 patients (36 %) in the moderate risk category, and 24 patients (29 %) in the high risk. As regards risk factors, we revealed that 17 patients (20.7 %) had a concomitant type II controlled diabetes (without organ damage), 23 patients (28 %) were smokers, 29 patients (35 %) were receiving concomitant drugs for hypertension, and 15 patients (18 %) had concomitant dyslipidemia. Overall, the cumulative incidence of

  18. Application of systematic coronary risk evaluation chart to identify chronic myeloid leukemia patients at risk of cardiovascular diseases during nilotinib treatment.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; Molica, Matteo; Zacheo, Irene; Serrao, Alessandra; Alimena, Giuliana

    2015-03-01

    Nilotinib is currently approved for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic (CP) and accelerated phase (AP) after failure of imatinib and in newly diagnosed patients. Atherosclerotic events were retrospectively reported in patients with baseline cardiovascular risk factors during nilotinib treatment. We estimated the risk of developing atherosclerotic events in patients treated with second or first-line nilotinib, with a median follow-up of 48 months, by retrospectively applying the SCORE chart proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and evaluating risk factors at baseline (diabetes, obesity, smoking, and hypertension). Overall, we enrolled in the study 82 CP patients treated frontline (42 CP patients at the dose of 600 mg BID) or after failure of other tyrosine kinase inhibitors (40 CP patients treated with 400 mg BID). The SCORE chart is based on the stratification of sex (male vs female), age (from 40 to 65 years), smoker vs non-smoker, systolic pressure (from 120 to 180 mm Hg), and cholesterol (measured in mmol/l, from 150 to 300 mg/dl). For statistical purposes, we considered patients subdivided in low, moderate, high (with a score >5), and very high risk. There were 48 males and 34 females, median age 51 years (range 22-84). According to WHO classification, 42 patients were classified as normal weight (BMI <25), 26 patients were overweight (BMI 26 ≤ 30), and 14 were obese (BMI >30). Retrospective classification according to the SCORE chart revealed that 27 patients (33 %) were in the low-risk category, 30 patients (36 %) in the moderate risk category, and 24 patients (29 %) in the high risk. As regards risk factors, we revealed that 17 patients (20.7 %) had a concomitant type II controlled diabetes (without organ damage), 23 patients (28 %) were smokers, 29 patients (35 %) were receiving concomitant drugs for hypertension, and 15 patients (18 %) had concomitant dyslipidemia. Overall, the cumulative incidence of

  19. The care of Filipino juvenile offenders in residential facilities evaluated using the risk-need-responsivity model.

    PubMed

    Spruit, Anouk; Wissink, Inge B; Stams, Geert Jan J M

    2016-01-01

    According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and criminogenic needs assessments (parenting style, aggression, relationships with peers, empathy, and moral reasoning) have been conducted using data of 55 juvenile offenders in four residential facilities. The psychological care has been assessed using a checklist. Statistical analyses showed that juvenile offenders had a high risk of re-offending, high aggression, difficulties in making pro-social friends, and a delayed socio-moral development. The psychological programs in the residential facilities were evaluated to be poor. The availability of the psychological care in the facilities fitted poorly with the characteristics of the juvenile offenders and did not comply with the risk-need-responsivity model. Implications for research and practice are discussed. PMID:27137741

  20. The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs: Findings on Designing and Implementing Effective Prevention Programs for Youth at High Risk. Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hermann, Jack; Sambrano, Soledad; Springer, J. Fred; Nister, Mary; Sale, Elizabeth; Brounstein, Paul J.; Cordray, David; Shadish, Will; Kasim, Rafa; Pan, Wei

    This document summarizes findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs, which identified characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes in 48 prevention programs. It provides concrete guidance regarding what elements of design and implementation are…

  1. Using cross-validation to evaluate predictive accuracy of survival risk classifiers based on high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard M; Subramanian, Jyothi; Li, Ming-Chung; Menezes, Supriya

    2011-05-01

    Developments in whole genome biotechnology have stimulated statistical focus on prediction methods. We review here methodology for classifying patients into survival risk groups and for using cross-validation to evaluate such classifications. Measures of discrimination for survival risk models include separation of survival curves, time-dependent ROC curves and Harrell's concordance index. For high-dimensional data applications, however, computing these measures as re-substitution statistics on the same data used for model development results in highly biased estimates. Most developments in methodology for survival risk modeling with high-dimensional data have utilized separate test data sets for model evaluation. Cross-validation has sometimes been used for optimization of tuning parameters. In many applications, however, the data available are too limited for effective division into training and test sets and consequently authors have often either reported re-substitution statistics or analyzed their data using binary classification methods in order to utilize familiar cross-validation. In this article we have tried to indicate how to utilize cross-validation for the evaluation of survival risk models; specifically how to compute cross-validated estimates of survival distributions for predicted risk groups and how to compute cross-validated time-dependent ROC curves. We have also discussed evaluation of the statistical significance of a survival risk model and evaluation of whether high-dimensional genomic data adds predictive accuracy to a model based on standard covariates alone.

  2. A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

  3. Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction and Self-Defense Program: A Prospective Analysis of a Revised Protocol

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly

    2008-01-01

    The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…

  4. 77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-17

    ... model used by the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) and suggestions for further...: Richard Forshee, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration... disease computer simulation models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks...

  5. High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, J.; Silva, A.; Leitão, P.

    2011-08-01

    The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment. Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal), which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami. In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings) in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

  6. Evaluation of endogenous allergens for the safety evaluation of genetically engineered food crops: review of potential risks, test methods, examples and relevance.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Richard E; Panda, Rakhi; Ariyarathna, Harsha

    2013-09-01

    The safety of food produced from genetically engineered (GE) crops is assessed for potential risks of food allergy on the basis of an international consensus guideline outlined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (2003). The assessment focuses on evaluation of the potential allergenicity of the newly expressed protein(s) as the primary potential risk using a process that markedly limits risks to allergic consumers. However, Codex also recommended evaluating a second concern, potential increases in endogenous allergens of commonly allergenic food crops that might occur due to insertion of the gene. Unfortunately, potential risks and natural variation of endogenous allergens in non-GE varieties are not understood, and risks from increases have not been demonstrated. Because regulatory approvals in some countries are delayed due to increasing demands for measuring endogenous allergens, we present a review of the potential risks of food allergy, risk management for food allergy, and test methods that may be used in these evaluations. We also present new data from our laboratory studies on the variation of the allergenic lipid transfer protein in non-GE maize hybrids as well as data from two studies of endogenous allergen comparisons for three GE soybean lines, their nearest genetic soy lines, and other commercial lines. We conclude that scientifically based limits of acceptable variation cannot been established without an understanding of natural variation in non-GE crops. Furthermore, the risks from increased allergen expression are minimal as the risk management strategy for food allergy is for allergic individuals to avoid consuming any food containing their allergenic source, regardless of the crop variety.

  7. Evaluation of Hemoglobin A1c Criteria to Assess Preoperative Diabetes Risk in Cardiac Surgery Patients

    PubMed Central

    Saberi, Sima; Zrull, Christina A.; Patil, Preethi V.; Jha, Leena; Kling-Colson, Susan C.; Gandia, Kenia G.; DuBois, Elizabeth C.; Plunkett, Cynthia D.; Bodnar, Tim W.; Pop-Busui, Rodica

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective Hemoglobin A1c (A1C) has recently been recommended for diagnosing diabetes mellitus and diabetes risk (prediabetes). Its performance compared with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h post-glucose load (2HPG) is not well delineated. We compared the performance of A1C with that of FPG and 2HPG in preoperative cardiac surgery patients. Methods Data from 92 patients without a history of diabetes were analyzed. Patients were classified with diabetes or prediabetes using established cutoffs for FPG, 2HPG, and A1C. Sensitivity and specificity of the new A1C criteria were evaluated. Results All patients diagnosed with diabetes by A1C also had impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes by other criteria. Using FPG as the reference, sensitivity and specificity of A1C for diagnosing diabetes were 50% and 96%, and using 2HPG as the reference they were 25% and 95%. Sensitivity and specificity for identifying prediabetes with FPG as the reference were 51% and 51%, respectively, and with 2HPG were 53% and 51%, respectively. One-third each of patients with prediabetes was identified using FPG, A1C, or both. When testing A1C and FPG concurrently, the sensitivity of diagnosing dysglycemia increased to 93% stipulating one or both tests are abnormal; specificity increased to 100% if both tests were required to be abnormal. Conclusions In patients before cardiac surgery, A1C criteria identified the largest number of patients with diabetes and prediabetes. For diagnosing prediabetes, A1C and FPG were discordant and characterized different groups of patients, therefore altering the distribution of diabetes risk. Simultaneous measurement of FGP and A1C may be a more sensitive and specific tool for identifying high-risk individuals with diabetes and prediabetes. PMID:21854260

  8. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  9. Tryon Trekkers: An Evaluation of a STEM Based Afterschool Program for At-Risk Youth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckels Anderson, Chessa

    This study contributed to the body of research that supports a holistic model of afterschool learning through the design of an afterschool intervention that benefits elementary school students of low socioeconomic status. This qualitative study evaluated a science focused afterschool curriculum that was designed using principles from Risk and Resiliency Theory, academic motivation theories, science core ideas from the Next Generation Science Standards, and used environmental education philosophy. The research question of this study is: how does an outdoor and STEM based afterschool program impact at-risk students' self-efficacy, belonging and engagement and ability to apply conceptual knowledge of environmental science topics? The study collected information about the participants' affective experiences during the intervention using structured and ethnographic observations and semi-structured interviews. Observations and interviews were coded and analyzed to find patterns in participants' responses. Three participant profiles were developed using the structured observations and ethnographic observations to provide an in depth understanding of the participant experience. The study also assessed the participants' abilities to apply conceptual understanding of the program's science topics by integrating an application of conceptual knowledge task into the curriculum. This task in the form of a participant project was assessed using an adapted version of the Portland Metro STEM Partnership's Application of Conceptual Knowledge Rubric. Results in the study showed that participants demonstrated self-efficacy, a sense of belonging and engagement during the program. Over half of the participants in the study demonstrated a proficient understanding of program concepts. Overall, this holistic afterschool program demonstrated that specific instructional practices and a multi-modal science curriculum helped to support the social and emotional needs of at-risk children.

  10. Proposed risk evaluation guidelines for use by the DOE-AL Nuclear Explosive Safety Division in evaluating proposed shipments of nuclear components

    SciTech Connect

    Just, R.A.; Love, A.F.

    1997-10-01

    The licensing requirements of 10 CFR 71 (US Code of Federal Regulations) are the primary criteria used to license proposed US Department of Energy (DOE) shipments of nuclear components. However, if a shipment cannot meet 10 CFR 71 requirements, a Transportation System Risk Assessment (TSRA) is prepared to document: (1) the degree of compliance of proposed DOE shipments of nuclear components with applicable federal regulations, and (2) the risk associated with the proposed shipments. The Nuclear Explosive Safety Division (NESD) of the Department of Energy, Albuquerque Area Office (DOE-AL) is responsible for evaluating TSRAs and for preparing Safety Evaluation Reports (SERs) to authorize the off-site transport. Hazards associated with the transport may include the presence of fissile material, chemically and radiologically toxic uranium, and ionizing radiation. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has historically considered only radiological hazards in licensing the transport of radiological material because the US Department of Transportation considers licensing requirements of nonradiological (i.e., chemically toxic) hazards. The requirements of 10 CFR 71 are based primarily on consideration of radiological hazards. For completeness, this report provides information for assessing the effects of chemical toxicity. Evaluating the degree of compliance with the requirements of 10 CFR 71 is relatively straightforward. However, there are few precedents associated with developing TSRA risk assessments for packages that do not comply with all of the requirements of 10 CFR 71. The objective of the task is to develop Risk Evaluation Guidelines for DOE-AL to use when evaluating a TSRA. If the TSRA shows that the Risk Evaluation Guidelines are not exceeded, then from a risk perspective the TSRA should be approved if there is evidence that the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle has been applied.

  11. Remote Sensing and Modeling of Landslides: Detection, Monitoring and Risk Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Fukuoka, Hiroshi

    2012-01-01

    Landslides are one of the most pervasive hazards in the world, resulting in more fatalities and economic damage than is generally recognized_ Occurring over an extensive range of lithologies, morphologies, hydrologies, and climates, mass movements can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall, seismicity, freeze/thaw processes, and antbropogertic activities, among other factors. The location, size, and timing of these processes are characteristically difficult to predict and assess because of their localized spatial scales, distribution, and complex interactions between rainfall infiltration, hydromechanical properties of the soil, and the underlying surface composition. However, the increased availability, accessibility, and resolution of remote sensing data offer a new opportunity to explore issues of landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk over a variety of spatial scales. This special issue presents a series of papers that investigate the sources, behavior, and impacts of different mass movement types using a diverse set of data sources and evaluation methodologies.

  12. Towards a comprehensive and realistic risk evaluation of engineered nanomaterials in the urban water system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duester, Lars; Burkhardt, Michael; Gutleb, Arno; Kaegi, Ralf; Macken, Ailbhe; Meermann, Björn; von der Kammer, Frank

    2014-06-01

    The European COoperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1205 on the transfer of Engineered Nano materials from wastewater Treatment and stormwatEr to Rivers (ENTER) aims to create and to maintain a trans European network among scientists. This perspective article delivers a brief overview on the status quo at the beginning of the project by addressing the following aspects on engineered nano materials (ENMs) in the urban systems: i) ENMs that need to be considered on a European level; ii) uncertainties on production-volume estimations; iii) fate of selected ENMs during waste water transport and treatment; iv) analytical strategies for ENM analysis; v) ecotoxicity of ENMs, and vi) future needs. These six step stones deliver the derivation of the position of the ES1205 network at the beginning of the projects runtime, by defining six fundamental aspects that should be considered in future discussions on risk evaluation of ENMs in urban water systems.

  13. Toward a comprehensive and realistic risk evaluation of engineered nanomaterials in the urban water system

    PubMed Central

    Duester, Lars; Burkhardt, Michael; Gutleb, Arno C.; Kaegi, Ralf; Macken, Ailbhe; Meermann, Björn; von der Kammer, Frank

    2014-01-01

    The European COoperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1205 on the transfer of Engineered Nano materials from wastewater Treatment and stormwatEr to Rivers (ENTER) aims to create and to maintain a trans European network among scientists. This perspective article delivers a brief overview on the status quo at the beginning of the project by addressing the following aspects on engineered nano materials (ENMs) in the urban systems: (1) ENMs that need to be considered on a European level; (2) uncertainties on production-volume estimations; (3) fate of selected ENMs during waste water transport and treatment; (4) analytical strategies for ENM analysis; (5) ecotoxicity of ENMs, and (6) future needs. These six step stones deliver the derivation of the position of the ES1205 network at the beginning of the projects runtime, by defining six fundamental aspects that should be considered in future discussions on risk evaluation of ENMs in urban water systems. PMID:25003102

  14. Evaluating the technical feasibility of aflatoxin risk reduction strategies in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Felicia; Khlangwiset, Pornsri

    2010-01-01

    Public health interventions must be readily accepted by their target populations to have any meaningful impact, and must have financial and infrastructural support to be feasible in the parts of the world where they are most needed. At the same time, these interventions must be assessed for potential unintended consequences, either to the environment or to human health. In this paper, we evaluate the technical feasibility of interventions to control aflatoxin risk, to be potentially deployed in parts of Africa where aflatoxin exposure poses a significant public health concern. We have applied a conceptual framework for feasibility to four interventions, one associated with each of four different stages of aflatoxin risk: biocontrol (pre-harvest), a post-harvest intervention package (post-harvest), NovaSil clay (dietary), and hepatitis B vaccination (clinical). For each intervention, we have assessed the following four components of technical feasibility: 1) characteristics of the basic intervention, 2) characteristics of delivery, 3) requirements on government capacity, and 4) usage characteristics. We propose ways in which feasibility of each intervention is currently high or low from the perspective of adoption in Africa, how public education is crucial for each of these interventions to succeed, and how to align economic incentives to make the interventions more suitable for less developed countries. PMID:20455160

  15. Evaluation of a Prevention Intervention to Reduce HIV Risk among Angolan Soldiers

    PubMed Central

    Bing, Eric G.; Cheng, Karen G.; Ortiz, Daniel J.; Ovalle-Bahamón, Ricardo E.; Ernesto, Francisco; Weiss, Robert E.; Boyer, Cherrie B.

    2010-01-01

    We developed and evaluated a military-focused HIV prevention intervention to enhance HIV risk-reduction knowledge, motivation, and behaviors among Angolan soldiers. Twelve bases were randomly assigned to HIV prevention or control conditions, yielding 568 participants. HIV prevention participants received training in preventing HIV (4.5 days) and malaria (0.5 days). Control participants received the reverse. Monthly booster sessions were available after each intervention. We assessed participants at baseline, three and six months after the training. HIV prevention participants reported greater condom use and less unprotected anal sex at three months, as well as greater HIV-related knowledge and perceived vulnerability at three and six months. Within-group analyses showed HIV prevention participants increased condom use, reduced unprotected vaginal sex, and reduced numbers of partners at both follow-ups, while control participants improved on some outcomes at three months only. A military-focused HIV prevention intervention may increase HIV-related knowledge, motivation, and risk reduction among African soldiers. PMID:18324469

  16. Evaluating needle exchange: a description of client characteristics, health status, program utilization, and HIV risk behavior.

    PubMed

    Guydish, J; Bucardo, J; Clark, G; Bernheim, S

    1998-04-01

    This study was designed to describe demographic and drug use characteristics, health status, and HIV-related risk behavior among clients attending the San Francisco needle exchange program (NEP), and to assess the relationship between NEP utilization and risk behavior. Randomly selected clients were interviewed when they visited the NEP. Participants were of diverse ethnicity, had a mean age of 38.2, and 72% were male. Many reported being homeless (25%), unemployed (34%), uninsured (52%), and having an episode of infectious disease in the past 2 years (36%). Clients who received a higher proportion of their needles from the exchange were less likely to report sharing of needles or rinse water. Clients who attended the exchange more frequently were more likely to clean their skin prior to injecting and less likely to use the same needle repeatedly. Frequency of visiting the NEP was not associated with the likelihood of sharing needles or rinse water. Efforts to evaluate needle exchange in the United States will benefit from descriptive reports from other NEP programs, and the use of nonexchange comparison groups.

  17. Renal disease in scleroderma: an update on evaluation, risk stratification, pathogenesis and management

    PubMed Central

    Shanmugam, Victoria K.; Steen, Virginia D.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of review Renal disease remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality in scleroderma. The spectrum of renal complications in systemic sclerosis includes scleroderma renal crisis (SRC), normotensive renal crisis, antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies-associated glomerulonephritis, penacillamine-associated renal disease, and reduced renal functional reserves manifested by proteinuria, microalbuminuria, or isolated reduction in glomerular filtration rate. The purpose of this review is to provide a concise and up-to-date review of the evaluation, risk stratification, pathogenesis, and management of scleroderma-associated renal disease. Recent findings Although SRC survival has significantly improved, mortality of this complication remains high outside of specialized centers. Recent data demonstrate strong associations between anti-RNA polymerase III antibodies and SRC. Subclinical renal impairment affects approximately 50% of scleroderma patients and may be associated with other vascular manifestations. Subclinical renal involvement rarely progresses to end-stage renal failure; however, recent studies suggest it may predict mortality in patients with other vasculopathic manifestations. Summary Testing for anti-RNA polymerase III antibodies should be incorporated into clinical care to identify patients at high risk for SRC. Recommendations from European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR), EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research, and the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium confirm angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors as first-line therapy for SRC, and give recommendations for second-line agents. PMID:22955019

  18. Evaluating the technical feasibility of aflatoxin risk reduction strategies in Africa.

    PubMed

    Wu, Felicia; Khlangwiset, Pornsri

    2010-05-01

    Public health interventions must be readily accepted by their target populations to have any meaningful impact and must have financial and infrastructural support to be feasible in the parts of the world where they are most needed. At the same time, these interventions must be assessed for potential unintended consequences, either to the environment or to human health. In this paper, we evaluate the technical feasibility of interventions to control aflatoxin risk, to be potentially deployed in parts of Africa where aflatoxin exposure poses a significant public health concern. We have applied a conceptual framework for feasibility to four interventions, one associated with each of four different stages of aflatoxin risk: biocontrol (pre-harvest), a post-harvest intervention package (post-harvest), NovaSil clay (dietary), and hepatitis B vaccination (clinical). For each intervention, we have assessed the following four components of technical feasibility: (1) characteristics of the basic intervention, (2) characteristics of delivery, (3) requirements on government capacity, and (4) usage characteristics. We propose ways in which feasibility of each intervention is currently high or low from the perspective of adoption in Africa, how public education is crucial for each of these interventions to succeed, and how to align economic incentives to make the interventions more suitable for less developed countries. PMID:20455160

  19. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  20. An approach to the real time risk evaluation system of boreal forest fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakau, K.; Fukuda, M.; Kimura, K.; Hayasaka, H.; Tani, H.; Kushida, K.

    2005-12-01

    Huge boreal forest fire may cause massive impacts not only on global warming gas emission but also local communities. Thus, it is important to control forest fire. We collected data about boreal forest fire as satellite imagery and fire observation simultaneously in Alaska and east Siberia in summer fire seasons for these three years. Fire observation data was collected from aircraft flying between Japan and Europe. Fire detection results were compared with observed data to evaluate the accuracy and earliness of automatic detection. NOAA and MODIS satellite images covering Alaska and East Siberia are collected. We are also developing fire expansion simulation model to forecast the possible fire expansion area. On the basis of fire expansion forecast, risk analysis of possible fire expansion for decision aid of fire-fighting activities will be analyzed. To identify the risk of boreal forest fire and public concern about forest fire, we collected local news paper in Fairbanks, AK and discuss the statistics of articles related to forest fire on the newspaper.

  1. Evaluation of injection well risk management potential in the Williston Basin

    SciTech Connect

    1989-09-01

    The UIC regulations promulgated by the EPA under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) provide the EPA, or an EPA approved state agency, with authority to regulate subsurface injection of fluids to protect USDWs. Oil and gas producing industry interests are concerned primarily with Class 2 wells whose uses as defined by UIC regulations are: disposal of fluids brought to the surface and liquids generated in connection with oil and gas production (SWD); injection of fluids for enhanced oil recovery (EOR); and storage of liquid hydrocarbons. The Williston Basin was chosen for the pilot study of the feasibility of using the risk approach in managing Class 2 injection operations for the following reasons: it is one of the nine geologic basins which was classified as having a significant potential for external casing corrosion, which permitted an evaluation of the effectiveness of the injection well corrosion control measures used by industry; there are 731 active, 22 shut in and 203 temporarily abandoned SWD and water injection wells in the basin; and the basin covers three states. The broad objective of the Williston Basin study is to define requirements and to investigate the feasibility of incorporating risk management into administration of the UIC program. The study does not address the reporting aspects of UIC regulatory and compliance activities but the data base does contain essentially all the information required to develop the reports needed to monitor those activities. 16 refs., 10 figs., 11 tabs.

  2. Risk evaluation for sludge-borne elements to wildlife food chains

    SciTech Connect

    Woodyard, D.K.

    1986-01-01

    Studies were conducted to evaluate the human and wildlife food chain risks from exposure to potentially toxic metals associated with recycling sludges to forest lands. The fate of 5 selected metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn, were determined in both field and laboratory food chains exposed to sludge-borne metals. Knowledge gained on the fate of the selected metals and existing knowledge of their toxicological properties were used to complete a risk assessment. Some metals, primarily Cd and Cr, did accumulate in wildlife forages during the first year after application but returned to background concentrations by the second growing season. Maximum metal concentrations were magnitudes less than doses suspected to elicit chronic toxicities in wildlife. Tissues collected from herbivorous and omnivorous small mammals showed no evidence of metal accumulation. Laboratory experiments support this observation. The soil macroinvertebrate-vertebrate insectivore food chain did appear as a potential pathway for metals to accumulate, as woodcock (Philohela minor) fed sludge-contaminated earthworms concentrated Cd in kidney and liver tissues. However, muscle tissues collected from the woodcock did not contain significant concentrations of the selected metals.

  3. Dissolved Concentrations, Sources, and Risk Evaluation of Selected Metals in Surface Water from Mangla Lake, Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Saleem, Muhammad; Iqbal, Javed; Shah, Munir H.

    2014-01-01

    The present study is carried out for the assessment of water quality parameters and selected metals levels in surface water from Mangla Lake, Pakistan. The metal levels (Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn) were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average levels of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb were higher than the allowable concentrations set by national and international agencies. Principal component analysis indicated significant anthropogenic contributions of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb in the water reservoir. Noncarcinogenic risk assessment was then evaluated using Hazard Quotient (HQing/derm) and Hazard Index (HIing/derm) following USEPA methodology. For adults and children, Cd, Co, Cr, and Pb (HQing > 1) emerged as the most important pollutants leading to noncarcinogenic concerns via ingestion route, whereas there was no risk via dermal contact of surface water. This study helps in establishing pollutant loading reduction goal and the total maximum daily loads, and consequently contributes to preserve public health and develop water conservation strategy. PMID:24744690

  4. Hypothesis-based weight-of-evidence evaluation and risk assessment for naphthalene carcinogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Lisa A.; Nascarella, Marc A.; Kerper, Laura E.; Rhomberg, Lorenz R.

    2016-01-01

    Inhalation of naphthalene causes olfactory epithelial nasal tumors in rats (but not in mice) and benign lung adenomas in mice (but not in rats). The limited available human data have not identified an association between naphthalene exposure and increased respiratory cancer risk. Assessing naphthalene's carcinogenicity in humans, therefore, depends entirely on experimental evidence from rodents. We evaluated the respiratory carcinogenicity of naphthalene in rodents, and its potential relevance to humans, using our Hypothesis-Based Weight-of-Evidence (HBWoE) approach. We systematically and comparatively reviewed data relevant to key elements in the hypothesized modes of action (MoA) to determine which is best supported by the available data, allowing all of the data from each realm of investigation to inform interpretation of one another. Our analysis supports a mechanism that involves initial metabolism of naphthalene to the epoxide, followed by GSH depletion, cytotoxicity, chronic inflammation, regenerative hyperplasia, and tumor formation, with possible weak genotoxicity from downstream metabolites occurring only at high cytotoxic doses, strongly supporting a non-mutagenic threshold MoA in the rat nose. We also conducted a dose–response analysis, based on the likely MoA, which suggests that the rat nasal MoA is not relevant in human respiratory tissues at typical environmental exposures. Our analysis illustrates how a thorough WoE evaluation can be used to support a MoA, even when a mechanism of action cannot be fully elucidated. A non-mutagenic threshold MoA for naphthalene-induced rat nasal tumors should be considered as a basis to determine human relevance and to guide regulatory and risk-management decisions. PMID:26202831

  5. Hypothesis-based weight-of-evidence evaluation and risk assessment for naphthalene carcinogenesis.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Lisa A; Nascarella, Marc A; Kerper, Laura E; Rhomberg, Lorenz R

    2016-01-01

    Inhalation of naphthalene causes olfactory epithelial nasal tumors in rats (but not in mice) and benign lung adenomas in mice (but not in rats). The limited available human data have not identified an association between naphthalene exposure and increased respiratory cancer risk. Assessing naphthalene's carcinogenicity in humans, therefore, depends entirely on experimental evidence from rodents. We evaluated the respiratory carcinogenicity of naphthalene in rodents, and its potential relevance to humans, using our Hypothesis-Based Weight-of-Evidence (HBWoE) approach. We systematically and comparatively reviewed data relevant to key elements in the hypothesized modes of action (MoA) to determine which is best supported by the available data, allowing all of the data from each realm of investigation to inform interpretation of one another. Our analysis supports a mechanism that involves initial metabolism of naphthalene to the epoxide, followed by GSH depletion, cytotoxicity, chronic inflammation, regenerative hyperplasia, and tumor formation, with possible weak genotoxicity from downstream metabolites occurring only at high cytotoxic doses, strongly supporting a non-mutagenic threshold MoA in the rat nose. We also conducted a dose-response analysis, based on the likely MoA, which suggests that the rat nasal MoA is not relevant in human respiratory tissues at typical environmental exposures. Our analysis illustrates how a thorough WoE evaluation can be used to support a MoA, even when a mechanism of action cannot be fully elucidated. A non-mutagenic threshold MoA for naphthalene-induced rat nasal tumors should be considered as a basis to determine human relevance and to guide regulatory and risk-management decisions.

  6. Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Douglas C; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-01-01

    The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework's roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization.

  7. Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Douglas C.; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I.; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P.; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework’s roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723

  8. Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability criteria for the evaluation of Human Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.; Bolster, D.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impact of water quality on the health of a general population is challenging due high degrees of uncertainty and variability in hydrological, toxicological and human aspects of the system. Assessment of the impact of changes in water quality of a public water supply is critical to management of that water supply. We propose the use of three different system evaluation criteria: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) as a tool for assessing the impact of uncertainty in the arrival of contaminant mass through time with respect to human health risks on a variable population. These criteria were first introduced to the water resources community by Hashimoto et al (1982). Most simply one can understand these criteria as the following: Reliability is the likelihood of the system being in a state of success; Resilience is the probability that the system will return to a state of success at t+1 if it is in failure at time step t, and Vulnerability is the severity of failure, which here is defined as the maximum health risk. These concepts are applied to a theoretical example where the water quality at a water supply well varies over time: health impact is considered based on sliding, 30-year windows of exposure to water derived from the well. We apply the methodology, in terms of uncertainty in water quality deviations, to eight simulated breakthrough curves of a contaminant at the well: each curve represents equal mass of contaminant arriving at the well over a 70-year lifetime of the well, but different mass distributions over time. These curves are used to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the distribution through time of the contaminant mass at the well, as well as the initial arrival of the contaminant over the 70-year lifetime of the well. In addition to extending the health risk through time with uncertainty in mass distribution, we incorporate variability in the human population to examine the evolution of the three criteria within

  9. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  10. Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

    2009-12-20

    This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.

  11. Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-01

    The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

  12. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella.

    PubMed

    Guentchev, Galina S; Rood, Richard B; Ammann, Caspar M; Barsugli, Joseph J; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Vigh, Jonathan L; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-02-29

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971-2000--a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections.

  13. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella

    PubMed Central

    Guentchev, Galina S.; Rood, Richard B.; Ammann, Caspar M.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971–2000—a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. PMID:26938544

  14. Evaluation of the current risk of lead poisoning in the ceramics industry.

    PubMed

    De Rosa, E; Toffolo, D; Sigon, M; Brighenti, F; Gori, G P; Bartolucci, G B

    1983-12-01

    Evaluation of the current risk of lead poisoning in the ceramics industry. Scand j work environ health 9 (1983) 463-469. The authors evaluate the current possibility of lead poisoning in the production of ceramic tiles, an industrial sector which has always been considered dangerous due to the use of lead-rich glazes. The study was conducted in nine plants, four of which were repeatedly monitored (five checks on 94 exposed subjects). The other five plants (for a total of 221 exposed subjects) were only checked once. An analysis of all the results showed a clear reduction in mean blood lead levels, which the authors believe was due to the use of glazes with less lead. The results obtained were generally satisfactory; they indicated a definite improvement in the situation with respect to the authors' previous investigations, even for jobs in which workers were more frequently exposed. The data overlap those observed in the production of artistic pottery, which has always been considered less dangerous.

  15. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella.

    PubMed

    Guentchev, Galina S; Rood, Richard B; Ammann, Caspar M; Barsugli, Joseph J; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Vigh, Jonathan L; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-03-01

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971-2000--a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. PMID:26938544

  16. Two-scale evaluation of remediation technologies for a contaminated site by applying economic input-output life cycle assessment: risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO2 emission.

    PubMed

    Inoue, Yasushi; Katayama, Arata

    2011-09-15

    A two-scale evaluation concept of remediation technologies for a contaminated site was expanded by introducing life cycle costing (LCC) and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). The expanded evaluation index, the rescue number for soil (RN(SOIL)) with LCC and EIO-LCA, comprises two scales, such as risk-cost, risk-energy consumption or risk-CO(2) emission of a remediation. The effectiveness of RN(SOIL) with LCC and EIO-LCA was examined in a typical contamination and remediation scenario in which dieldrin contaminated an agricultural field. Remediation was simulated using four technologies: disposal, high temperature thermal desorption, biopile and landfarming. Energy consumption and CO(2) emission were determined from a life cycle inventory analysis using monetary-based intensity based on an input-output table. The values of RN(SOIL) based on risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO(2) emission were calculated, and then rankings of the candidates were compiled according to RN(SOIL) values. A comparison between three rankings showed the different ranking orders. The existence of differences in ranking order indicates that the scales would not have reciprocal compatibility for two-scale evaluation and that each scale should be used independently. The RN(SOIL) with LCA will be helpful in selecting a technology, provided an appropriate scale is determined.

  17. Evaluation of the Practice Pattern of Medical Patients' VTE Prophylaxis With a Standard Risk Assessment Model Form: MERAM Study.

    PubMed

    Ongen, Gul; Demir, Muzaffer; Molinas, Nil; Ince, Birsen; Ongen, Zeki

    2015-07-01

    Hospitalized acutely ill patients face high risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) unless appropriate thromboprophylaxis is applied. This study aimed to determine VTE prophylaxis practices for inpatients in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of physicians' training via a modified "Standard Medical Patients' VTE Risk Assessment Model (MERAM)." A total of 607 inpatients included in this national multicenter noninterventional observational registry were evaluated in terms of demographics, VTE risk, and preventive measures at 2 consecutive cross-sectional visits. Physicians were asked to complete a questionnaire on current VTE method risk assessment and other models including MERAM. The VTE prophylaxis rates significantly increased from 49.4% to 62.4% between visits (P < .05). The lack of risk evaluation decreased from 74.6% to 19.5% (P < .001). Percentage of physicians using prophylaxis and use of MERAM increased between visits. Physician training proved effective for providing general "awareness" of VTE prophylaxis and led to higher rates of risk assessment model-based appropriate VTE prophylaxis.

  18. Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of

  19. An Interactive Website to Reduce Sexual Risk Behavior: Process Evaluation of TeensTalkHealth

    PubMed Central

    Sieving, Renee E; Terveen, Loren G; Rosser, BR Simon; Kodet, Amy J; Rothberg, Vienna D

    2015-01-01

    Background Different theoretical frameworks support the use of interactive websites to promote sexual health. Although several Web-based interventions have been developed to address sexual risk taking among young people, no evaluated interventions have attempted to foster behavior change through moderated interaction among a virtual network of adolescents (who remain anonymous to one another) and health professionals. Objective The objective was to conduct a summative process evaluation of TeensTalkHealth, an interactive sexual health website designed to promote condom use and other healthy decision making in the context of romantic and sexual relationships. Methods Evaluation data were obtained from 147 adolescents who participated in a feasibility and acceptability study. Video vignettes, teen-friendly articles, and other content served as conversation catalysts between adolescents and health educators on message boards. Results Adolescents’ perceptions that the website encouraged condom use across a variety of relationship situations were very high. Almost 60% (54/92, 59%) of intervention participants completed two-thirds or more of requested tasks across the 4-month intervention. Adolescents reported high levels of comfort, perceived privacy, ease of website access and use, and perceived credibility of health educators. Potential strategies to enhance engagement and completion of intervention tasks during future implementations of TeensTalkHealth are discussed, including tailoring of content, periodic website chats with health educators and anonymous peers, and greater incorporation of features from popular social networking websites. Conclusions TeensTalkHealth is a feasible, acceptable, and promising approach to complement and enhance existing services for youth. PMID:26336157

  20. Adherence to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) requirements for monthly testing of liver function

    PubMed Central

    Blanchette, Christopher M; Nunes, Anthony P; Lin, Nancy D; Mortimer, Kathleen M; Noone, Joshua; Tangirala, Krishna; Johnston, Stephen; Gutierrez, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS), as mandated by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for medications with the potential for harm, are increasingly incorporating rigid protocols for patient evaluation, but little is known about compliance with these programs. Despite the inherent limitations, data on administrative claims may provide an opportunity to investigate adherence to these programs. Methods: We assessed adherence to liver function test (LFT) requirements included in the REMS program for bosentan through use of administrative claims. Patients observed in the Optum Research Database who were initiators of bosentan from November 20, 2001 to March 31, 2013 were included. Adherence to LFTs was calculated using pharmacy claims for bosentan dispensation and medical claims for laboratory services, and was assessed at the time of drug initiation and within specified time intervals throughout follow-up. Results: Of 742 patients, 523 (70.5%) had ≥1 qualifying LFT. Among patients with ≥12 dispensations, claims for LFTs at individual dispensations were 53.2–64.0%. Median proportion of dispensations with ≥1 LFT was 0.8 among patients with ≥6 (interquartile range, 0.7–1.0) or ≥12 (0.7–0.9) dispensations. Adherence was 90–100% for 33.3% of all initiators, whereas 29.3% of initiators were non-adherent (defined as <50% of on-therapy LFTs). Conclusions: Analyses of administrative claims suggest that the REMS program for bosentan may not have adequately guaranteed adherence to the program’s monthly monitoring of LFTs. Such investigations of existing REMS programs may provide insight on how to accomplish more successful evaluation of REMS. PMID:25709706

  1. Evaluation of amifostine for protection against cisplatin-induced serious hearing loss in children treated for average-risk or high-risk medulloblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Gurney, James G.; Bass, Johnnie K.; Onar-Thomas, Arzu; Huang, Jie; Chintagumpala, Murali; Bouffet, Eric; Hassall, Tim; Gururangan, Sridharan; Heath, John A.; Kellie, Stewart; Cohn, Richard; Fisher, Michael J.; Panandiker, Atmaram Pai; Merchant, Thomas E.; Srinivasan, Ashok; Wetmore, Cynthia; Qaddoumi, Ibrahim; Stewart, Clinton F.; Armstrong, Gregory T.; Broniscer, Alberto; Gajjar, Amar

    2014-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate amifostine for protection from cisplatin-induced serious hearing loss in patients with average-risk medulloblastoma by extending a previous analysis to a much larger sample size. In addition, this study aimed to assess amifostine with serious hearing loss in patients with high-risk medulloblastoma treated with cisplatin. Methods Newly diagnosed medulloblastoma patients (n = 379; ages 3–21 years), enrolled on one of 2 sequential St. Jude clinical protocols that included 4 courses of 75 mg/m2 cisplatin, were compared for hearing loss by whether or not they received 600 mg/m2 of amifostine immediately before and 3 hours into each cisplatin infusion. Amifostine administration was not randomized. The last audiological evaluation between 5.5 and 24.5 months following protocol treatment initiation was graded using the Chang Ototoxicity Scale. A grade of ≥2b (loss requiring a hearing aid or deafness) was considered a serious event. Results Among average-risk patients (n = 263), amifostine was associated with protection from serious hearing loss (adjusted OR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.14–0.64). For high-risk patients (n = 116), however, there was not sufficient evidence to conclude that amifostine prevented serious hearing loss (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.31–2.54). Conclusions Although patients in this study were not randomly assigned to amifostine treatment, we found evidence in favor of amifostine administration for protection against cisplatin-induced serious hearing loss in average-risk but not in high-risk, medulloblastoma patients. PMID:24414535

  2. Social appearance anxiety, perfectionism, and fear of negative evaluation: Distinct or shared risk factors for social anxiety and eating disorders?

    PubMed Central

    Levinson, Cheri A.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; White, Emily K.; Menatti, Andrew; Weeks, Justin W.; Iacovino, Juliette M.; Warren, Cortney S.

    2013-01-01

    Social anxiety and eating disorders are highly comorbid. Social appearance anxiety (i.e., fear of negative evaluation of one's appearance), general fear of negative evaluation, and perfectionism have each been proposed as risk factors for both social anxiety disorder and the eating disorders. However, no research to date has examined all three factors simultaneously. Using structural equation modeling in two diverse samples (N = 236; N = 136) we tested a model in which each of these risk factors were uniquely associated with social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms. We found support for social appearance anxiety as a shared risk factor between social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms, whereas fear of negative evaluation was a risk factor only for social anxiety symptoms. Despite significant zero-order relationships, two facets of perfectionism (high standards and maladaptive perfectionism) did not emerge as a risk factor for either disorder when all constructs were considered. These results were maintained when gender, body mass index, trait negative affect, and depression were included in the model. It is possible that treating negative appearance evaluation fears may reduce both eating disorder and social anxiety symptoms. PMID:23583741

  3. Long-term risk in a recently active volcanic system: Evaluation of doses and indoor radiological risk in the quaternary Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capaccioni, B.; Cinelli, G.; Mostacci, D.; Tositti, L.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic rocks in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy) contain high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K due to subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust. Due to their favorable mechanical properties they have been extensively used for construction since the Etruscan age. In the old buildings of the Bolsena village, one of the most populated ancient village in the area, the major source of indoor radioactivity is 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendant of 238U. Direct 222Rn indoor measurements have detected extremely high values in the old center due to the combined effect of building materials, radon fluxes from the volcanic basement and low air exchange rates. In these cases the evaluated risk of developing lung cancer within a 75 year lifetime reaches up to 40% for ever smokers. Simulations of "standard rooms" built with different tuffs and lavas collected from the Vulsini Volcanic District have also provided estimations of the effective doses and lifetime risk for radiogenic cancer. Other than by the method adopted for calculation, the total evaluated risk for each volcanic rock depends on different parameters, such as: radionuclide content, radon emanation power, occupancy factor and air exchange rate. Occupancy factor and air exchange rate appear as the only controlling parameters able to mitigate the indoor radiological risk.

  4. A Multi-Institutional Evaluation of Active Surveillance for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Eggener, Scott E; Mueller, Alex; Berglund, Ryan K; Ayyathurai, Raj; Soloway, Cindy; Soloway, Mark S; Abouassaly, Robert; Klein, Eric A; Jones, Steven J; Zappavigna, Chris; Goldenberg, Larry; Scardino, Peter T; Eastham, James A; Guillonneau, Bertrand

    2014-01-01

    Purpose For select men with low-risk prostate cancer, active surveillance (AS) is more often being considered a management strategy. In a multicenter retrospective study we evaluated the actuarial rates and predictors of remaining on AS, incidence of cancer progression, and pathologic findings of delayed radical prostatectomy. Methods A cohort of 262 men from four institutions met the following inclusion criteria: age ≤75, PSA ≤10 ng/ml, clinical stage T1-T2a, biopsy Gleason sum ≤6, ≤3 positive cores at diagnostic biopsy, a repeat biopsy before AS, and no treatment for six months following the repeat biopsy. AS started on the date of the second biopsy. Actuarial rates of remaining on AS were calculated and univariate Cox regression used to assess predictors of discontinuing AS. Results With a median follow-up of 29 months 43 patients ultimately received active treatment. The two and five-year probabilities of remaining on AS were 91% and 75%, respectively. Patients with cancer on the second biopsy (HR=2.23; 95% CI: 1.23–4.06; p=0.007) and a higher number of cancerous cores from the two biopsies combined (p=0.002) were more likely to undergo treatment. Age, PSA, clinical stage, prostate volume, and number of total biopsy cores sampled were not predictive of outcome. One patient developed skeletal metastases 38 months after starting AS. Of the 43 patients undergoing delayed treatment, 41 (95%) are without disease progression at a median of 23 months following treatment. Conclusions With a median follow-up of 29 months, AS for select patients appears to be safe and associated with a low risk of systemic progression. Cancer at restaging biopsy and a higher total number of cancerous cores are associated with a lower likelihood of remaining on AS. A restaging biopsy should be strongly considered to finalize eligibility for AS. PMID:19233410

  5. Development and Evaluation of a Sensitive Mycotoxin Risk Assessment Model (MYCORAM)

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Hester-Mari; Lombard, Martani J.; Shephard, Gordon S.; Danster-Christians, Natasha; Gelderblom, Wentzel C.A.

    2014-01-01

    The differential risk of exposure to fumonisin (FB), deoxynivalenol (DON), and zearalenone (ZEA) mycotoxins to the South African population, residing in the nine Provinces was assessed during a cross-sectional grain consumer survey. The relative per capita maize intake (g/day) was stratified by gender, ethnicity, and Province and the probable daily intake (PDI) for each mycotoxin (ng/kg body weight/day) calculated utilizing SPECIAL and SUPER dry milled maize fractions representing different exposure scenarios. Men consumed on an average more maize (173 g/day) than women (142 g/day) whereas the black African ethnic group had the highest intake (279 g/day) followed by the Colored group (169 g/day) with the Asian/Indian and White groups consuming lower quantities of 101 and 80 g/day, respectively. The estimated mean PDIs for the various subgroups and Provinces, utilizing the different dry milled maize fractions, were below the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake (PMTDI) for each mycotoxin. A distinct and more sensitive mycotoxin risk assessment model (MYCORAM) for exposure, stratified by Province and ethnicity were developed utilizing specific maize intake increments (g/kg body weight/day) that provides information on the percentage of the population exposed above the PMTDI for each mycotoxin. Evaluation of the MYCORAM utilizing commercial and experimentally derived SPECIAL milling fractions, containing predefined mycotoxins levels, predicts the percentage of maize consumers exposed above the respective PMTDI. Safety modeling using the MYCORAM could also predict a maximum tolerated level adequate to safeguard all South African maize consumers including the most vulnerable groups. PMID:24980263

  6. Clinical Evaluation of a Multiple-Gene Sequencing Panel for Hereditary Cancer Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Kurian, Allison W.; Hare, Emily E.; Mills, Meredith A.; Kingham, Kerry E.; McPherson, Lisa; Whittemore, Alice S.; McGuire, Valerie; Ladabaum, Uri; Kobayashi, Yuya; Lincoln, Stephen E.; Cargill, Michele; Ford, James M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Multiple-gene sequencing is entering practice, but its clinical value is unknown. We evaluated the performance of a customized germline-DNA sequencing panel for cancer-risk assessment in a representative clinical sample. Methods Patients referred for clinical BRCA1/2 testing from 2002 to 2012 were invited to donate a research blood sample. Samples were frozen at −80° C, and DNA was extracted from them after 1 to 10 years. The entire coding region, exon-intron boundaries, and all known pathogenic variants in other regions were sequenced for 42 genes that had cancer risk associations. Potentially actionable results were disclosed to participants. Results In total, 198 women participated in the study: 174 had breast cancer and 57 carried germline BRCA1/2 mutations. BRCA1/2 analysis was fully concordant with prior testing. Sixteen pathogenic variants were identified in ATM, BLM, CDH1, CDKN2A, MUTYH, MLH1, NBN, PRSS1, and SLX4 among 141 women without BRCA1/2 mutations. Fourteen participants carried 15 pathogenic variants, warranting a possible change in care; they were invited for targeted screening recommendations, enabling early detection and removal of a tubular adenoma by colonoscopy. Participants carried an average of 2.1 variants of uncertain significance among 42 genes. Conclusion Among women testing negative for BRCA1/2 mutations, multiple-gene sequencing identified 16 potentially pathogenic mutations in other genes (11.4%; 95% CI, 7.0% to 17.7%), of which 15 (10.6%; 95% CI, 6.5% to 16.9%) prompted consideration of a change in care, enabling early detection of a precancerous colon polyp. Additional studies are required to quantify the penetrance of identified mutations and determine clinical utility. However, these results suggest that multiple-gene sequencing may benefit appropriately selected patients. PMID:24733792

  7. Evaluation of European coeliac disease risk variants in a north Indian population.

    PubMed

    Senapati, Sabyasachi; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Sood, Ajit; Midha, Vandana; Szperl, Agata; Romanos, Jihane; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Franke, Lude; Alonso, Santos; Thelma, B K; Wijmenga, Cisca; Trynka, Gosia

    2015-04-01

    Studies in European populations have contributed to a better understanding of the genetics of complex diseases, for example, in coeliac disease (CeD), studies of over 23 000 European samples have reported association to the HLA locus and another 39 loci. However, these associations have not been evaluated in detail in other ethnicities. We sought to better understand how disease-associated loci that have been mapped in Europeans translate to a disease risk for a population with a different ethnic background. We therefore performed a validation of European risk loci for CeD in 497 cases and 736 controls of north Indian origin. Using a dense-genotyping platform (Immunochip), we confirmed the strong association to the HLA region (rs2854275, P=8.2 × 10(-49)). Three loci showed suggestive association (rs4948256, P=9.3 × 10(-7), rs4758538, P=8.6 × 10(-5) and rs17080877, P=2.7 × 10(-5)). We directly replicated five previously reported European variants (P<0.05; mapping to loci harbouring FASLG/TNFSF18, SCHIP1/IL12A, PFKFB3/PRKCQ, ZMIZ1 and ICOSLG). Using a transferability test, we further confirmed association at PFKFB3/PRKCQ (rs2387397, P=2.8 × 10(-4)) and PTPRK/THEMIS (rs55743914, P=3.4 × 10(-4)). The north Indian population has a higher degree of consanguinity than Europeans and we therefore explored the role of recessively acting variants, which replicated the HLA locus (rs9271850, P=3.7 × 10(-23)) and suggested a role of additional four loci. To our knowledge, this is the first replication study of CeD variants in a non-European population.

  8. Preoperative evaluation of cardiac risk by means of atrial pacing and thallium 201 scintigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Stratmann, H.G.; Mark, A.L.; Walter, K.E.; Williams, G.A. )

    1989-10-01

    Atrial pacing and thallium 201 scintigraphy were done in 61 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease referred for evaluation of cardiac risk before elective vascular surgery. All patients had noncardiac limitations precluding performance of an adequate exercise stress test. Before atrial pacing all were considered to be at low risk of a postoperative cardiac event based on assessment of clinical parameters. Vascular surgery was subsequently performed in 47 patients. In these patients, pacing-induced ST segment depression greater than or equal to 1 mm occurred in 18, a fixed perfusion defect occurred in 11, and a reversible defect occurred in six. Two of the six patients with reversible perfusion defects had preoperative coronary angiography; both had significant coronary artery disease (one or more lesions greater than or equal to 50%). Two patients (one of whom had a reversible perfusion defect) underwent preoperative coronary revascularization and tolerated subsequent vascular surgery well. All other patients received only medical therapy. None of the 47 patients undergoing vascular surgery had a postoperative cardiac event (unstable angina, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, or cardiac death). Of the 14 patients in whom vascular surgery was deferred or canceled, surgery was canceled for noncardiac reasons in seven. Six of these seven patients had a normal perfusion scan; none had a reversible perfusion defect or marked (greater than or equal to 2 mm) ST segment depression. No cardiac event occurred during a 3-month period after atrial pacing in any of these patients. Six of the remaining seven patients had reversible perfusion defects.

  9. [Microbiologic/hygienic evaluation of the risk potential of bacteria from soil and water sources in combination with biotechnologic risks of soil restoration].

    PubMed

    Dott, W; Kämpfer, P

    1997-08-01

    Biological cleanup-processes removing contaminations from soil and ground-water can be carried out "ex-situ" or "in situ". The pollutants are mineralized (totally or partly) by microorganisms. The successful application of bioremediation techniques often leads to an increase of aerobic and facultatively anaerobic bacteria in soil and/or groundwater, a fact that triggered discussions about a potential biological risk originating from these microorganisms. In this study the identification results of 10,200 microorganisms isolated from 109 ground-water- and 152 soil-samples of different sites contaminated with mineral oil or chlorinated aromatics are evaluated with respect to a possible biological risks originating from these microorganisms. According to their biological risk potential, 19.2% (1958) of the isolated organisms can be grouped into risk-groups II, that means they they are able o cause human disease but it is unlikely that they are spread to the community and there is effective prophylaxis or treatment available. The majority of isolates (81.8%) are grouped into risk group I, meaning that it is very unlikely that they cause a human disease. All these microorganisms are either adsorbed to the soil-matrix or within a closed system of a water-treatment-plant, so that the risk of infection is very unlikely for healthy individuals (regarding possible pathways of infection). The risk potential in waste-water-treatment-plants is regarded to be significantly higher than in biological soil-cleanup processes, because of the specific origin of the bacteria and the possible formation of aerosols.

  10. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in patients with Parkinson disease under levodopa treatment

    PubMed Central

    Günaydın, Zeki Yüksel; Özer, Fahriye Feriha; Karagöz, Ahmet; Bektaş, Osman; Karataş, Mehmet Baran; Vural, Aslı; Bayramoğlu, Adil; Çelik, Abdullah; Yaman, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Background Levodopa is the indispensable choice of medial therapy in patients with Parkinson disease (PD). Since L-dopa treatment was shown to increase serum homocysteine levels, a well-known risk factor for cardiovascular disorders, the patients with PD under L-dopa treatment will be at increased risk for future cardiovascular events. The objective of this study is to evaluate cardiovascular risk in patients with PD under levodopa treatment. Methods The study population consisted of 65 patients with idiopathic PD under L-dopa treatment. The control group included 32 age and gender matched individuals who had no cognitive decline. Echocardiographic measurements, serum homocysteine levels and elastic parameters of the aorta were compared between the patients with PD and controls. Results As an expected feature of L-dopa therapy, the Parkinson group had significantly higher homocystein levels (15.1 ± 3.9 µmol/L vs. 11.5 ± 3.2 µmol/L, P = 0.02). Aortic distensibility was significantly lower in the patients with PD when compared to controls (4.8 ± 1.5 dyn/cm2 vs. 6.2 ± 1.9 dyn/cm2, P = 0.016). Additionally, the patients with PD had higher aortic strain and aortic stiffness index (13.4% ± 6.4% vs. 7.4% ± 3.6%, P < 0.001 and 7.3 ± 1.5 vs. 4.9 ± 1.9, P < 0.001 respectively). Furthermore, serum homocysteine levels were found to be positively correlated with aortic stiffness index and there was a negative correlation between aortic distensibility and levels of serum homocysteine (r = 0.674, P < 0.001; r = −0.602, P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions The patients with PD under L-dopa treatment have increased aortic stiffness and impaired diastolic function compared to healthy individuals. Elevated serum homocysteine levels may be a possible pathophysiological mechanism. PMID:26918017

  11. Hypotheses and fundamental study design characteristics for evaluating potential reduced-risk tobacco products. Part I: Heuristic.

    PubMed

    Murrelle, Lenn; Coggins, Christopher R E; Gennings, Chris; Carchman, Richard A; Carter, Walter H; Davies, Bruce D; Krauss, Marc R; Lee, Peter N; Schleef, Raymond R; Zedler, Barbara K; Heidbreder, Christian

    2010-06-01

    The risk-reducing effect of a potential reduced-risk tobacco product (PRRP) can be investigated conceptually in a long-term, prospective study of disease risks among cigarette smokers who switch to a PRRP and in appropriate comparison groups. Our objective was to provide guidance for establishing the fundamental design characteristics of a study intended to (1) determine if switching to a PRRP reduces the risk of lung cancer (LC) compared with continued cigarette smoking, and (2) compare, using a non-inferiority approach, the reduction in LC risk among smokers who switched to a PRRP to the reduction in risk among smokers who quit smoking entirely. Using standard statistical methods applied to published data on LC incidence after smoking cessation, we show that the sample size and duration required for a study designed to evaluate the potential for LC risk reduction for an already marketed PRRP, compared with continued smoking, varies depending on the LC risk-reducing effectiveness of the PRRP, from a 5-year study with 8000-30,000 subjects to a 15-year study with <5000 to 10,000 subjects. To assess non-inferiority to quitting, the required sample size tends to be about 10 times greater, again depending on the effectiveness of the PRRP.

  12. EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

    2013-04-01

    Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

  13. The role of risk communication planning in the release of the oral rabies vaccine in New Jersey: An evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Pflugh, K.K.

    1995-12-01

    Communicating health risk information is a complicated task. Citizen reaction to such information is difficult to predict, which makes it hard to plan an appropriate response. Research indicates that the way citizens respond to risk information often depends on whether the risk is familiar or unfamiliar, whether it is seen as imposed on them, whether it is man made or natural, or whether they have control over the risk. Potentially controversial cases that deal with delivering risk information have a special need for a well planned communication effort. Natural resource issues with an impact on public health are no exception. In New Jersey, a proposal to release an experimental bioengineered oral rabies vaccine for raccoons to test the effectiveness of the vaccine in halting the spread of rabies into an as yet unaffected area met with widespread public support and approval due in large part to the use of a unique risk communication planning process. This paper will describe the risk communication planning process used to gain public support and approval for release of oral rabies raccoon vaccine while focusing on the evaluation component of the process. The seven step process includes setting goals, profiling the issue or information gathering, audience identification and assessment, message development, method selection, implementation of the strategy and evaluation and follow-up. The goal of the evaluation component was to determine the effectiveness of the public information campaign on citizen`s knowledge of the field trial nearly three years after the initial announcement. In addition, it sought to learn citizen interest in maintaining the rabies free barrier that was created by the field trial using funds from local taxes. This evaluation includes the results of a mailed survey to 280 citizens, local officials and professional organizations. Finally, this paper will discuss the implications for future outreach efforts dealing complicated technical issues.

  14. Evaluating uncertainty to strengthen epidemiologic data for use in human health risk assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: There is a recognized need to improve the application of epidemiologic data in human health risk assessment especially for understanding and characterizing risks from environmental and occupational exposures. While most epidemiologic studies result in uncertainty, tec...

  15. Suicide risk in older adults: evaluating models of risk and predicting excess zeros in a primary care sample.

    PubMed

    Cukrowicz, Kelly C; Jahn, Danielle R; Graham, Ryan D; Poindexter, Erin K; Williams, Ryan B

    2013-11-01

    Research is needed that examines theory-based risk factors for suicide in older adults. The interpersonal theory of suicide (Joiner, 2005; Van Orden et al., 2010) provides specific hypotheses regarding variables that contribute to the development and variability in death ideation and suicide ideation; however, data suggest that older adults may not report suicide ideation in research settings or to treatment providers even when they experience it (Heisel et al., 2006). The purpose of this study was to test theory-based predictions regarding variables that contribute to death ideation (i.e., a passive wish to die) and suicide ideation in older adults. This study introduces the application of zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB) to the study of suicidal behavior. ZINB was used to test theory-based predictions, while also testing a hypothesis regarding variables associated with denial of suicide ideation among participants who endorsed risk factors associated with suicide risk. Participants included 239 adults aged 60 and older recruited from primary care clinics who completed a variety of self-report instruments. The results of this study indicated that perceived burdensomeness and hopelessness were significantly associated with variability in death ideation. Additional results indicated that elevated scores on thwarted belonging, the interaction between perceived burdensomeness and hopelessness, and the interaction between thwarted belonging and perceived burdensomeness were associated with a significant reduction in the probability of a participant being a suicide ideator. These results offer substantial support for the interpersonal theory of suicide. The implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:24364604

  16. [Ecological risk evaluation of heavy metals of the typical dredged mud in Shanghai].

    PubMed

    Tang, Qing-Li; Cheng, Jin-Ping; Gao, Hao-Min; Yao, Lei; Jiang, Zhen-Yi; Wu, Yang; Xie, Cui-Song; Liang, Hai; Wang, He; Pi, Shuai-Shuai; Yu, Zhao-Yi

    2013-04-01

    In order to discuss the potential ecological risk of heavy metals of the typical dredged mud in Shanghai, the Hakanson potential ecological risks method was used to analyse and assess the potential ecological risks of heavy metals, including Hg, Cd, Cu, Pb, As,Cr and Zn in dredged mud from the following three areas-the dock apron of Huangpu River, the mouth of the Yangtze River and inland waterways. The results showed that the mean values of ecological risk index (Er(i)) of the seven heavy metals are 20.05, 17.49, 8.82, 5.71, 4.68, 1.74 and 1.13, respectively, all of which belonged to the low ecological risk; Cd (one location in inland waterways) and Hg (three locations in the mouth of