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Sample records for risk evaluation euroscore

  1. Comparison of original EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk models in a Turkish cardiac surgical cohort†

    PubMed Central

    Kunt, Ayse Gul; Kurtcephe, Murat; Hidiroglu, Mete; Cetin, Levent; Kucuker, Aslihan; Bakuy, Vedat; Ruchan Akar, Ahmet; Sener, Erol

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population. METHODS The current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power. RESULTS The mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4–10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2–6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3–8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6–1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4–6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60–0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60–0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59–0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62–0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51–0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. PMID:23403767

  2. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-08-17

    BACKGROUND We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative 'additive EuroSCORE' (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative 'additive CASUS' (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the 'modified CASUS'. MATERIAL AND METHODS We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the 'modified CASUS' were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong's method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. RESULTS The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2 ± 10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6 ± 7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of 'modified CASUS': ≥ 0.929; 'additive CASUS': ≥ 0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (<0.05) in calibration. We detected the best OCC during the 2nd day (modified: 96.5%; original: 96.6%). CONCLUSIONS Our 'additive' and 'modified' CASUS are reasonable overall predictors. We could not detect any improvement in the accuracy of mortality prediction in cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended.

  3. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B.; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M.; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-01-01

    Background We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative ‘additive EuroSCORE‘ (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative ‘additive CASUS’ (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the ‘modified CASUS’. Material/Methods We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the ‘modified CASUS’ were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong’s method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. Results The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2±10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6±7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of ‘modified CASUS’: ≥0.929; ‘additive CASUS’: ≥0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (<0.05) in calibration. We detected the best OCC during the 2nd day (modified: 96.5%; original: 96.6%). Conclusions Our ‘additive’ and ‘modified’ CASUS are reasonable overall predictors. We could not detect any improvement in the accuracy of mortality prediction in cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended. PMID:26279053

  4. Dynamic trends in cardiac surgery: why the logistic EuroSCORE is no longer suitable for contemporary cardiac surgery and implications for future risk models

    PubMed Central

    Hickey, Graeme L.; Grant, Stuart W.; Murphy, Gavin J.; Bhabra, Moninder; Pagano, Domenico; McAllister, Katherine; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Progressive loss of calibration of the original EuroSCORE models has necessitated the introduction of the EuroSCORE II model. Poor model calibration has important implications for clinical decision-making and risk adjustment of governance analyses. The objective of this study was to explore the reasons for the calibration drift of the logistic EuroSCORE. METHODS Data from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland database were analysed for procedures performed at all National Health Service and some private hospitals in England and Wales between April 2001 and March 2011. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. EuroSCORE risk factors, overall model calibration and discrimination were assessed over time. RESULTS A total of 317 292 procedures were included. Over the study period, mean age at surgery increased from 64.6 to 67.2 years. The proportion of procedures that were isolated coronary artery bypass grafts decreased from 67.5 to 51.2%. In-hospital mortality fell from 4.1 to 2.8%, but the mean logistic EuroSCORE increased from 5.6 to 7.6%. The logistic EuroSCORE remained a good discriminant throughout the study period (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve between 0.79 and 0.85), but calibration (observed-to-expected mortality ratio) fell from 0.76 to 0.37. Inadequate adjustment for decreasing baseline risk affected calibration considerably. DISCUSSIONS Patient risk factors and case-mix in adult cardiac surgery change dynamically over time. Models like the EuroSCORE that are developed using a ‘snapshot’ of data in time do not account for this and can subsequently lose calibration. It is therefore important to regularly revalidate clinical prediction models. PMID:23152436

  5. Sampling time error in EuroSCORE II.

    PubMed

    Poullis, Michael; Fabri, Brian; Pullan, Mark; Chalmers, John

    2012-05-01

    Seasonal variation in mortality after cardiac surgery exists. EuroSCORE II accrued data over a 12-week period from May to July 2010. We investigated whether the accrual period for EuroSCORE II had a different mortality rate compared with the rest of the year. We found in a study population of 18,706 that the accrual period of EuroSCORE II may introduce bias into the predicted mortality, potentially reducing the accuracy of the new model.

  6. Mortality prediction in Indian cardiac surgery patients: Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II

    PubMed Central

    Kar, Prachi; Geeta, Kanithi; Gopinath, Ramachandran; Durga, Padmaja

    2017-01-01

    Background and Aims: Risk Stratification has an important place in cardiac surgery to identify high-risk cases and optimally allocate resources. Hence various risk scoring systems have been tried to predict mortality. The aim of the present study was to validate the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) in Indian cardiac surgical patients. Methods: After obtaining ethics committee clearance, data on EuroSCORE II variables were collected for all patients >18 years undergoing on-pump coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), valve surgery and mixed (CABG + valve) procedures between January 2011 and December 2012. Mortality prediction was done using the online calculator from the site www.euroscore.org. The calibration of the EuroSCORE II model was analysed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and calculating area under the curve (AUC). The analysis was done in the total sample, CABG, valve surgery and in mixed procedures. Results: The overall observed mortality was 5.7% in the total sample, 6.6% in CABG, 4.2% in valve surgeries and 10.2% in mixed procedures whereas the predicted mortality was 2.9%, 3.1%, 2.4%, 5.1% in total sample, CABG, valve surgery and mixed procedure, respectively. The significance (P value) of Hosmer–Lemeshow test was 0.292, 0.45, 0.56 and 1 for the total sample, CABG, valve surgery and mixed procedure, respectively, indicating good calibration. The AUC of ROC was 0.76, 0.70, 0.83 and 0.78 for total sample, CABG, valve surgery and mixed procedure, respectively. Conclusion: Mortality of the sample was under-predicted by EuroSCORE II. Calibration of the EuroSCORE II model was good for total sample as well as for all surgical subcategories. Discrimination was good in the total sample and in the mixed procedure population, acceptable in CABG patients and excellent in valve surgeries. PMID:28250485

  7. A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    Background The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. Conclusions According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction. PMID:28060903

  8. Preoperative Risk Levels and Vascular Access in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation-A Single-Institute Analysis.

    PubMed

    Kawaguchi, Akira T; Collet, Jean Philippe; Cluzel, Philippe; Makri, Ralouka; Laali, Mojgan; DeFrance, Catherine; Furuya, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Akira; Leprince, Pascal

    2017-02-01

    Although transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been indicated for patients with high surgical risk, indications for or against the procedure become more difficult as vascular access becomes more proximal and/or invasive in order to accommodate patients with even higher risks. We compared preoperative factors including the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score with postoperative survival in 195 patients undergoing TAVI during 2.5 years (January 2010 to June 2012), when vascular access routes were developed from iliofemoral (IL/Fm access, n = 149), axillo-clavicular, apical, and direct aortic approaches (alternative access, n = 46). Logistic regression analyses showed that alternative access was associated with reduced 30-day survival (P = 0.024), while high surgical risk (>15% in both EuroSCORE and STS score) was associated with reduced 1-year survival (P = 0.046). Thus, patients treated via IL/Fm access had acceptable outcome regardless of preoperative risk levels while patients with low surgical risk (<15%) had favorable outcome irrespective of access route. Since the remaining patients with combined risk factors, high preoperative risk level (>15%) requiring alternative access, had a prohibitive risk in our experience, they might have been considered untreatable or not amenable even to TAVI and offered medical or alternative managements.

  9. Changes in quality of life associated with surgical risk in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Romero, Paola Severo; de Souza, Emiliane Nogueira; Rodrigues, Juliane; Moraes, Maria Antonieta

    2015-10-01

    The study aims to verify quality of life of elderly patients submitted to cardiac surgery, and correlating surgical risk to health-related quality of life instrument domains. Prospective cohort study, performed at a cardiology hospital. It included elderly patients who had undergone elective cardiac surgery. Pre- and postoperative quality of life was evaluated by applying the World Health Organization Quality of Life-Old (WHOQOL-OLD) scale and the Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) questionnaire. Surgical risk was stratified using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE). Fifty-four patients, mostly men (64.8%), were included, with a mean age of 69.3 ± 5.7 years. The eight domains of the SF-36 questionnaire, and the four facets presented for the WHOQOL-OLD scale showed improved quality of life 6 months after surgery (P < 0.001). No difference was found in the association of EuroSCORE with the domains of the health-related quality of life instruments. The data showed improved quality of life of elderly people submitted to cardiac surgery, unrelated to surgical risk.

  10. Software design for professional risk evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionescu, V.; Calea, G.; Amza, G.; Iacobescu, G.; Nitoi, D.; Dimitrescu, A.

    2016-08-01

    Professional risk evaluation represents a complex activity involving each economic operator, with important repercussion upon health and security in work. Article represents an innovative study method, regarding professional risk analyze in which cumulative working posts are evaluated. Work presents a new software that helps in putting together all the working positions from a complex organizational system and analyzing them in order to evaluate the possible risks. Using this software, a multiple analysis can be done like: risk estimation, risk evaluation, estimation of residual risks and finally searching of risk reduction measures.

  11. Probabilistic Approaches for Evaluating Space Shuttle Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vesely, William

    2001-01-01

    The objectives of the Space Shuttle PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) are to: (1) evaluate mission risks; (2) evaluate uncertainties and sensitivities; (3) prioritize contributors; (4) evaluate upgrades; (5) track risks; and (6) provide decision tools. This report discusses the significance of a Space Shuttle PRA and its participants. The elements and type of losses to be included are discussed. The program and probabilistic approaches are then discussed.

  12. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    SciTech Connect

    Wolfe, Justin E.

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  13. Evaluation of protective action risks

    SciTech Connect

    Witzig, W.F.; Shillenn, J.K.

    1987-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine how the risks of the protective action of evacuation compare with the radiological risks from a radiation release if no protective actions are taken. Evacuation risks of death and injury have been determined by identifying from newspapers and other sources 902 possible evacuation events which occurred in the US during the period January 1, 1973 through April 30, 1986. A survey form was developed to determine evacuation risks and other information relating to the evacuation events and sent to local emergency management personnel located in the vicinity of 783 events. There were 310 completed surveys received and the data summarized. This study found that the key factors for a successful evacuation included an emergency plan, good communications and coordination, practice drills, and defined authority. Few successful evacuations used the emergency broadcasting system or warning sirens to communicate the need to evacuate. Reports of panic and traffic jams during an evacuation were very few. Traffic jams occurring during reentry were more likely than during the evacuation exodus. A summary of potential societal consequences of evacuation is included in this study. 5 refs., 9 figs., 20 tabs.

  14. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    SciTech Connect

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  15. Abandoned metal mine stability risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Bétournay, Marc C

    2009-10-01

    The abandoned mine legacy is critical in many countries around the world, where mine cave-ins and surface subsidence disruptions are perpetual risks that can affect the population, infrastructure, historical legacies, land use, and the environment. This article establishes abandoned metal mine failure risk evaluation approaches and quantification techniques based on the Canadian mining experience. These utilize clear geomechanics considerations such as failure mechanisms, which are dependent on well-defined rock mass parameters. Quantified risk is computed using probability of failure (probabilistics using limit-equilibrium factors of safety or applicable numerical modeling factor of safety quantifications) times a consequence impact value. Semi-quantified risk can be based on failure-case-study-based empirical data used in calculating probability of failure, and personal experience can provide qualified hazard and impact consequence assessments. The article provides outlines for land use and selection of remediation measures based on risk.

  16. Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

  17. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H

    2011-09-01

    We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF (q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF (p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF (q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF (p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  18. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  19. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-02-03

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions.

  20. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction.

  1. Modified risk evaluation method. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection.

  2. [Evaluating individual occupational risk in teachers].

    PubMed

    Stepanov, E G; Ishmukhametov, I B

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyzed work conditions of comprehensive school teachers according to workplace assessment. Additional studies covered opportunistic pathogens content of air in classrooms. Auxiliary medical examination evaluated health state of the teachers. Individual occupational risk was calculated with consideration of actual work conditions and health state. Comprehensive school teacher's work is characterized by constant or transitory influence by complex of occupational and work hazards that are mostly (according to to workplace assessment) increased work intensity, noise and inadequate illumination parameters. Ambient air of classrooms constantly contains high number of opportunistic pathogens, that could decrease immune system parameters and cause more droplet infections. Individual occupational risk of teachers, calculated with consideration of work conditions and health state parameters, appears to be high and proves high possibility of teachers' health damage at work. Recommendations cover evaluation of biologic factors within the workplace assessment, obligatory preliminary (before employment) and periodic medical examinations for comprehensive school teachers as for workers exposed to occupational hazards.

  3. [Evaluation of noise risk in roadmen].

    PubMed

    Giorgianni, C; Trimboli, K; Tanzariello, G; Fontana, G; Abbate, S; Callipari, S; Galtieri, G

    2007-01-01

    The activity of roadman is not much knowed. The evalutation of the risk evidences the noise and vibrations as the principal polluter. The aim of our study is to go into the knowledge of the working risk of that job. The study was leaded on a sample of 287 roadmen. It was carried out an evalutation of noise exposure of the workers and a biologic evaluation that included: Medical check. Othorhin.laryngoiatric examination. Audiometric examination. Impedenzometric examination. The audiometric exam was conduced in a silent box and with a acoustic rest at least 16 h. The audiometric test were classified in conformity with Merluzzi-Pira-Bosio method. The phonometric evaluations point out, in roadmans examinated, hight exposure to noise with mean Lep d > 90 db. Biological evaluation, through medical check, showed data similar with that of a general group homogeneous for age and sex. Audiometric evaluation showed a noise acoustic trama in 60% of sample. Inpedenzometric exam confirmed the absence of transmissive damage in almost whole sample. In conclusion we can adfirm that noise is a strong factor for roadmen, with evident damage to exposed workers.

  4. Veterinary drugs: disposition, biotransformation and risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Fink-Gremmels, J; van Miert, A S

    1994-12-01

    Veterinary drugs may only be produced, distributed and administered after being licensed. This implies that, prior to marketing, a critical evaluation of the pharmaceutical quality, the clinical efficacy and the over-all pharmacological and toxicological properties of the active substances will be performed by national and/or supranational authorities. However, despite a sophisticated legal (harmonized) framework, a number of factors involved in residue formation and safety assessment remain unpredictable or dependant on the current 'state of the art' in the understanding of molecular pharmacology and toxicology. For example, drug disposition and residue formation in the target animal species may be influenced by a broad variety of physiological parameters including age, sex and diet, as well as by pathological conditions especially the acute phase response to infection. These factors affect both drug disposition and metabolite formation. Furthermore, current thinking in toxicological risk assessment is influenced by recent developments in molecular toxicology and thus by an increased but still incomplete understanding of the interaction of a toxic compound with the living organism. General recognized principles in the evaluation of potential toxicants are applied in the recommendation of withdrawal times and the establishment of maximum residue limits (MRL values). Apart from toxicological-based assessment, increasing awareness is directed to other than toxicological responses, especially the potential risk of effects of antimicrobial residues on human gastrointestinal microflora. Thus, the methodology of risk assessment is discussed in the context of the recently established legal framework within the European Union.

  5. [Thermal comfort in perioperatory risk's evaluation].

    PubMed

    Masia, M D; Dettori, M; Liperi, G; Deriu, G M; Posadino, S; Maida, G; Mura, I

    2009-01-01

    Studies till now conducted about operating rooms' microclimate have been focused mainly on operators' thermal comfort, considering that uneasiness conditions may compromise their working performance. In last years, nevertheless, the anesthesiologic community recalled attention on patients' risks determined by perioperatory variations of normothermia, underlining the necessity of orientating studies to individuate microclimate characteristics act to guarantee thermal comfort of the patient too. Looking at these considerations, a study has been conducted in the operating rooms of the hospital-university Firm and the n.1 USL of Sassari, finalized, on one hand, to determinate microclimate characteristics of the operating blocks and to evaluate operators' and patients' thermal comfort, on the other to individuate, through a software simulation, microclimate conditions that ensure contemporarily thermal comfort for both the categories. Results confirm the existence of a thermal "gap" among operators and patients, these last constantly submitted to "cold-stress", sometimes very accentuated. So, we underline microclimate's importance in operating rooms, because there are particular situations that can condition perioperatory risks. Moreover it can be useful to integrate risk's classes of the American Society of Anestesiology (ASA) with a score attributed to the PMV/PPD variation, reaching more real operatory risk indicators.

  6. Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) - summary

    SciTech Connect

    Kjeldgaard, E.A.; Saloio, J.H.; Vannoni, M.G.

    1997-03-01

    Nuclear weapons have been produced in the US since the early 1950s by a network of contractor-operated Department of Energy (DOE) facilities collectively known as the Nuclear Weapon Complex (NWC). Recognizing that the failure of an essential process might stop weapon production for a substantial period of time, the DOE Albuquerque Operations office initiated the Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to assess quantitatively the potential for serious disruptions in the NWC weapon production process. PREP was conducted from 1984-89. This document is an unclassified summary of the effort.

  7. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  8. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  9. Evaluation of residue drum storage safety risks

    SciTech Connect

    Conner, W.V.

    1994-06-17

    A study was conducted to determine if any potential safety problems exist in the residue drum backlog at the Rocky Flats Plant. Plutonium residues stored in 55-gallon drums were packaged for short-term storage until the residues could be processed for plutonium recovery. These residues have now been determined by the Department of Energy to be waste materials, and the residues will remain in storage until plans for disposal of the material can be developed. The packaging configurations which were safe for short-term storage may not be safe for long-term storage. Interviews with Rocky Flats personnel involved with packaging the residues reveal that more than one packaging configuration was used for some of the residues. A tabulation of packaging configurations was developed based on the information obtained from the interviews. A number of potential safety problems were identified during this study, including hydrogen generation from some residues and residue packaging materials, contamination containment loss, metal residue packaging container corrosion, and pyrophoric plutonium compound formation. Risk factors were developed for evaluating the risk potential of the various residue categories, and the residues in storage at Rocky Flats were ranked by risk potential. Preliminary drum head space gas sampling studies have demonstrated the potential for formation of flammable hydrogen-oxygen mixtures in some residue drums.

  10. A comparison of off-pump and on-pump coronary bypass surgery in patients with low EuroSCORE

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The aim of the present study was to evaluate and compare postoperative short-term, mid-term and long-term outcomes of coronary artery bypass surgery performed with or without cardiopulmonary bypass in patients with a low European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score. Methods A retrospective analysis of 478 consecutive low risk patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery between January 2002 and December 2007 was performed. Of these patients, 83 cases had undergone on-pump and 395 cases had undergone off-pump coronary bypass surgery. The patients were assessed in terms peri-operative complications, survival, mortality due to cardiac events, need for rehospitalization and repeated coronary revascularization. Results There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of preoperative characteristics, except for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The number of distal anastomosis per patient was significantly lower in the off-pump group than in the on-pump group (2.66 ± 0.74 vs. 3.21 ± 0.85, p < 0.001). Early mortality rates were similar in both groups (1.01% for the off-pump group and 1.2% for the on-pump group, p = 0.687). Neurological complications were significantly lower in the off-pump group than in the on-pump group (1.1% vs. 6%, p = 0.01). The mean follow-up period was 80 ± 19.1 months (range, 3–112 months). The need for revascularization during long-term follow-up was 10.1% in the off-pump group and 7.2% in the on-pump group (p = 0.416). The 5-year survival was 95.2 ± 1.1% and 95.5 ± 2.7% in the off-pump and on-pump groups, respectively (p = 0.8), whereas the 7-year survival was 91.9 ± 1.6% and 84.7 ± 6.8% in the off-pump and on-pump groups, respectively (p = 0.274). The 5-year revascularization-free period was 89.5 ± 1.6% and 89.7 ± 3.5% in the off-pump and on-pump groups, respectively (p = 0.785). The 7-year revascularization-free period

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT EVALUATION FOR CONCENTRATED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...

  12. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  13. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  14. Risk Evaluation of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

    PubMed Central

    Gioiosa, Laura; Palanza, Paola; vom Saal, Frederick S.

    2015-01-01

    We review here our studies on early exposure to low doses of the estrogenic endocrine-disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA) on behavior and metabolism in CD-1 mice. Mice were exposed in utero from gestation day (GD) 11 to delivery (prenatal exposure) or via maternal milk from birth to postnatal day 7 (postnatal exposure) to 10 µg/kg body weight/d of BPA or no BPA (controls). Bisphenol A exposure resulted in long-term disruption of sexually dimorphic behaviors. Females exposed to BPA pre- and postnatally showed increased anxiety and behavioral profiles similar to control males. We also evaluated metabolic effects in prenatally exposed adult male offspring of dams fed (from GD 9 to 18) with BPA at doses ranging from 5 to 50 000 µg/kg/d. The males showed an age-related significant change in a number of metabolic indexes ranging from food intake to glucose regulation at BPA doses below the no observed adverse effect level (5000 µg/kg/d). Consistent with prior findings, low but not high BPA doses produced significant effects for many outcomes. These findings provide further evidence of the potential risks that developmental exposure to low doses of the endocrine disrupter BPA may pose to human health, with fetuses and infants being highly vulnerable. PMID:26740806

  15. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    PubMed Central

    Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  16. USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Often, the performance of risk management techniques is evaluated by measuring the concentrations of the chemials of concern before and after risk management effoprts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust understanding of the effectiveness of risk man...

  17. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    PubMed

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  18. Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

  19. Risk Quantified Structural Design and Evaluation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-09-01

    Other industries, such as nuclear power and offshore oil , have developed a risk quantification process for deciding if a given structure should be...airworthiness of an aircraft. Other industries, such as nuclear power and offshore oil , have developed a risk quantification process for deciding if...Other industries, such as nuclear power and offshore oil , offer alternatives to the current build- and-test paradigm. In both industries

  20. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  1. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  2. Evaluation of effect of different membership functions on risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Atalay, Kumru Didem; Can, Gülin Feryal; Eraslan, Ergün

    2017-03-23

    This study aims to define the relationship between risk degrees and risk indexes on different functional structures with the assumption that, risk degrees may not always present linear relationship with the risk indexes. In this wise, risk indexes; suitable for expert evaluation of working conditions and computed by using three different membership functions are determined. Among the membership functions used, one of them is preferred as linear and the others are preferred as nonlinear. Additionally, a new fuzzy risk assessment (RA) algorithm is developed by using these three membership functions. With this new fuzzy RA algorithm, a more flexible and precise process becomes available, while information loss during the determination of the risk index of danger sources is prevented. As a result, nonlinear increasing membership function is selected as the most suitable one for the expression of relationship between risk degrees and risk indexes.

  3. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  4. Dynamic risk factors: the Kia Marama evaluation.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Stephen M; Wales, David S; Bakker, Leon; Ward, Tony

    2002-04-01

    Risk assessment is an essential part of clinical practice. Each of the three aspects of risk (static, stable, and acute dynamic) are important at various points of contact between the man and the systems that are responsible for providing service. Dynamic factors, the typical treatment and supervision targets, have received less research attention than static factors. This paper examined the extent to which pretreatment, posttreatment and change scores were associated with reoffending among men incarcerated for sexually molesting. The results were generally supportive of change in prooffending attitudes as the key to not reoffending and suggested that the perspective-taking component of empathy and the use of fantasy may be important mechanisms. Affect scales generally failed to show any relationship with reoffending, outside decreases in trait and suppressed anger. Moreover, these data suggest that we could improve our assessments and treatment through increased sensitivity to offense pathways.

  5. A framework for risk-benefit evaluations in biomedical research.

    PubMed

    Rid, Annette; Wendler, David

    2011-06-01

    Essentially all guidelines and regulations require that biomedical research studies have an acceptable risk-benefit profile. However, these documents offer little concrete guidance for implementing this requirement and determining when it is satisfied. As a result, those charged with risk-benefit evaluations currently assess the risk-benefit profile of biomedical research studies in unsystematic ways, raising concern that some research participants are not being protected from excessive risks and that some valuable studies involving acceptable risk are being rejected. The present paper aims to address this situation by delineating the first comprehensive framework, which is based on existing guidelines and regulations as well as the relevant literature, for risk-benefit evaluations in biomedical research.

  6. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  7. Trust-level risk evaluation and risk control guidance in the NHS East of England.

    PubMed

    Card, Alan J; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

    2014-08-01

    In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety.

  8. EVALUATING RISK IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating risk is the understanding of the doses of environment...

  9. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  10. Evaluating microcystin exposure risk through fish consumption.

    PubMed

    Poste, Amanda E; Hecky, Robert E; Guildford, Stephanie J

    2011-07-01

    Microcystin is a cyanobacterial hepatotoxin that is found worldwide, and poses a serious threat to the ecological communities in which it is found as well as to those who rely on these waters for drinking, sanitation, or as a food source. Microcystin is known to accumulate in fish and other aquatic biota, however the prevalence of microcystin in fish tissue and the human health risks posed by microcystin exposure through fish consumption remain poorly resolved. Here we show that microcystin is pervasive in water and fish from several tropical (Ugandan) and temperate (North American) lakes, including lakes that support some of the largest freshwater fisheries in the world. We establish that fish consumption can be an important and sometimes dominant route of microcystin exposure for humans, and can cause consumers to exceed recommended total daily intake guidelines for microcystin. These results highlight the importance of monitoring microcystin concentrations in fish, and the need to consider potential exposure to microcystin through fish consumption in order to adequately assess human exposure risk.

  11. Evaluating microcystin exposure risk through fish consumption

    PubMed Central

    Poste, Amanda E.; Hecky, Robert E.; Guildford, Stephanie J.

    2011-01-01

    Microcystin is a cyanobacterial hepatotoxin that is found worldwide, and poses a serious threat to the ecological communities in which it is found as well as to those who rely on these waters for drinking, sanitation, or as a food source. Microcystin is known to accumulate in fish and other aquatic biota, however the prevalence of microcystin in fish tissue and the human health risks posed by microcystin exposure through fish consumption remain poorly resolved. Here we show that microcystin is pervasive in water and fish from several tropical (Ugandan) and temperate (North American) lakes, including lakes that support some of the largest freshwater fisheries in the world. We establish that fish consumption can be an important and sometimes dominant route of microcystin exposure for humans, and can cause consumers to exceed recommended total daily intake guidelines for microcystin. These results highlight the importance of monitoring microcystin concentrations in fish, and the need to consider potential exposure to microcystin through fish consumption in order to adequately assess human exposure risk. PMID:21671629

  12. Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Oh, Timothy; Voss, Jamie; Gamble, Greg; Kang, Nicholas; Pemberton, James

    2015-03-01

    Decision making regarding surgery for acute bacterial endocarditis is complex given its heterogeneity and often fatal course. Few studies have investigated the utility of operative risk scores in this setting. Endocarditis-specific scores have recently been developed. We assessed the prognostic utility of contemporary risk scores for mortality and morbidity after endocarditis surgery. Additive and logistic EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II, additive Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Endocarditis Score and additive De Feo-Cotrufo Score were retrospectively calculated for patients undergoing surgery for endocarditis during 2005-2011. Pre-specified primary outcomes were operative mortality, composite morbidity and mortality during follow-up. A total of 146 patients were included with an operative mortality of 6.8 % followed for 4.1 ± 2.4 years. Mean scores were additive EuroSCORE I: 8.0 ± 2.5, logistic EuroSCORE I: 13.2 ± 10.1 %, EuroSCORE II: 9.1 % ± 9.4 %, STS Score: 32.2 ± 13.5 and De Feo-Cotrufo Score: 14.6 ± 9.2. Corresponding areas under curve (AUC) for operative mortality 0.653, 0.645, 0.656, 0.699 and 0.744; for composite morbidity were 0.623, 0.625, 0.720, 0.714 and 0.774; and long-term mortality 0.588, 0.579, 0.686, 0.735 and 0.751. The best tool for post-operative stroke was EuroSCORE II: AUC 0.837; for ventilation >24 h and return to theatre the De Feo-Cotrufo Scores were: AUC 0.821 and 0.712. Pre-operative inotrope or intra-aortic balloon pump treatment, previous coronary bypass grafting and dialysis were independent predictors of operative and long-term mortality. In conclusion, risk models developed specifically from endocarditis surgeries and incorporating endocarditis variables have improved prognostic ability of outcomes, and can play an important role in the decision making towards surgery for endocarditis.

  13. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics

    PubMed Central

    Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-01-01

    Background: Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. Objectives: The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Results: Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. Conclusions: It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. PMID:24293456

  14. Primer for evaluating ecological risk at petroleum release sites.

    PubMed

    Claff, R

    1999-02-01

    Increasingly, risk-based approaches are being used to guide decision making at sites such as service stations and petroleum product terminals, where petroleum products have been inadvertently released to the soil. For example, the API Decision Support System software, DSS, evaluates site human health risk along six different routes of exposure. The American Society for Testing and Materials' Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) standard, ASTM 1739, establishes a tiered framework for evaluating petroleum release sites on the basis of human health risk. Though much of the risk assessment focus has been on human health risk, regulatory agencies recognize that protection of human health may not fully protect the environment; and EPA has developed guidance on identifying ecological resources to be protected through risk-based decision making. Not every service station or petroleum product terminal site warrants a detailed ecological risk assessment. In some cases, a simple preliminary assessment will provide sufficient information for decision making. Accordingly, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is developing a primer for site managers, to assist them in conducting this preliminary assessment, and in deciding whether more detailed ecological risk assessments are warranted. The primer assists the site manager in identifying relevant ecological receptors and habitats, in identifying chemicals and exposure pathways of concern, in developing a conceptual model of the site to guide subsequent actions, and in identifying conditions that may warrant immediate response.

  15. The evaluation of volcanic risk in the Vesuvian area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scandone, Roberto; Arganese, Giovanni; Galdi, Flavio

    1993-11-01

    Volcanic Risk has been defined as the product: R = Value × Vulnerability × Hazard, where value is the total amount of lives or properties at risk for a volcani eruption, the vulnerability is the percentage of value at risk for a given volcanic event, and the hazard is the probability that a given area may be affected by a certain volcanic phenomenon. We used this definition to evaluate the Risk of loss of human lives for volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius. Value has been determined based on the total number of inhabitants living in areas that could be affected by an eruption. Vulnerability is based on the relative probability of deaths as a result of different volcanic phenomena (tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, etc.). Hazard is evaluated based on the absolute probability of a given phenomenon in a certain area. This last parameter is the most difficult to evaluate. We subdivided the activity of Vesuvius, that produces risk of loss of human lives, into three classes of eruptions, based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. We assume that the events of each class are distributed according to a poissonian distribution (this is demonstrated for VEI = 3, and inferred for the other classes), so that we can evaluate the absolute probability of an eruption for each class within a given time span. We use a time window of 10 years and evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of at least one eruption for VEI = 3, 4, 5; the probability is respectively: P3 = 0.09896, P4 = 0.01748, P5 = 0.00298 We have made a hazard evaluation for the entire Vesuvian area as well as an evaluation of Volcanic Risk. The obtained map shows that the areas with higher risk are on the southern side of Vesuvius, in the coastal region where each town is characterized by an average Risk of ˜ 1000 inhabitants/10 years. The risk regularly decreases with increasing distance from the volcano. The risk is mostly due to the events with VEI = 3 and 4, as the most destructive effects of VEI = 5 are counterbalanced

  16. Computerized Ultrasound Risk Evaluation (CURE): First Clinical Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duric, N.; Littrup, P.; Rama, O.; Holsapple, E.

    The Karmanos Cancer Institute has developed an ultrasound (US) tomography system, known as Computerized Ultrasound Risk Evaluation (CURE), for detecting and evaluating breast cancer, with the eventual goal of providing improved differentiation of benign masses from cancer. We report on our first clinical findings with CURE.

  17. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  18. Evaluation of cluster recovery for small area relative risk models.

    PubMed

    Rotejanaprasert, Chawarat

    2014-12-01

    The analysis of disease risk is often considered via relative risk. The comparison of relative risk estimation methods with "true risk" scenarios has been considered on various occasions. However, there has been little examination of how well competing methods perform when the focus is clustering of risk. In this paper, a simulated evaluation of a range of potential spatial risk models and a range of measures that can be used for (a) cluster goodness of fit, (b) cluster diagnostics are considered. Results suggest that exceedence probability is a poor measure of hot spot clustering because of model dependence, whereas residual-based methods are less model dependent and perform better. Local deviance information criteria measures perform well, but conditional predictive ordinate measures yield a high false positive rate.

  19. Injury risk evaluation in sport climbing.

    PubMed

    Neuhof, A; Hennig, F F; Schöffl, I; Schöffl, V

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify and rate acute sport climbing injuries. Acute sport climbing injuries occurring from 2002 to 2006 were retrospectively assessed with a standardized web based questionnaire. A total number of 1962 climbers reported 699 injuries, which is equivalent to 0.2 injuries per 1 000 h of sport participation. Most (74.4%) of the injuries were of minor severity rated NACA I or NACA II. Injury distribution between the upper (42.6%) and lower extremities (41.3%) was similar, with ligament injuries, contusions and fractures being the most common injury types. Years of climbing experience (p<0.01), difficulty level (p<0.01), climbing time per week during summer (p<0.01) and winter (p<0.01) months were correlated with the injury rate. Age (p<0.05 (p=0.034)), years of climbing experience (p<0.01) and average climbing level (p<0.01) were correlated to the injury severity rated through NACA scores. The risk of acute injuries per 1 000 h of sport participation in sport climbing was lower than in previous studies on general rock climbing and higher than in studies on indoor climbing. In order to perform inter-study comparisons of future studies on climbing injuries, the use of a systematic and standardized scoring system (UIAA score) is essential.

  20. Seismic risk evaluation aided by IR thermography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinzato, E.; Cadelano, G.; Bison, P.; Petracca, A.

    2009-05-01

    Conservation of buildings in areas at seismic risk must take prevention into account. The safeguard architectonic heritage is an ambitious objective, but a priority for planning programmes at varying levels of decision making. Preservation and restoration activities must be optimized to cover a vast and widespread historical and architectonic heritage present in many countries. Masonry buildings requires an adequate level of knowledge based on the importance of structural geometry, which may include the damage, details of construction and properties of materials. For identification and classification of masonry is necessary to find shape, type and size of the elements, texture, size of mortar joints, assemblage. The recognition can be done through a visual inspection of the surface of walls, which can be examined, where is not visible, removing a layer of plaster. Thermography is an excellent tool for a fast survey and collection of vital information for this purpose, but it is extremely important define a precise procedure in the development of more efficient monitoring tools. Thermography is a non-destructive method that allows recognizing the structural damage below plaster, detecting the presence of discontinuity in masonry, for added storeys, cavity, filled openings, and repairs. Furthermore, the fast identification of subsurface state allows to select areas where other methods either more penetrating or partially destructive have to be applied. The paper reports experimental results achieved in the mainframe of the European project RECES Modiquus. The main aim of the project is to improve methods, techniques and instruments for facing antiseismic options. Both passive and active thermographic techniques have been applied in different weather conditions and time schemes. A dedicated algorithm has been developed to enhance the visibility of wall bonding.

  1. Risk assessment for transboundary rivers using fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rai, Subash P.; Sharma, Nayan; Lohani, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Large scale urbanization has resulted in greater withdrawals of shared waters and this withdrawal has been largely dependent on the hegemony of the riparian's. The last few decades has seen the upward surge of many countries in terms of development as well as hegemony. Existing structures of established water sharing framework typically evaluate only parameters related to historic water use such as historic water demand and supply, contribution to flow, and hydrology. Water conflicts and cooperation is affected by various issues related with development and hegemony. Characterization and quantification of development and hegemony parameters is a very complex process. This paper establishes a novel approach to predict river basins at risk; the approach addresses the issue of water conflict and cooperation within a methodologically more rigorous predictive framework. Fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique is used in this paper to undertake the risk assessment of international transboundary rivers. In this paper the fuzzy domain of risk consists of two fuzzy sets - hegemony and development, indices of which are developed with the help of fuzzy synthetic evaluation techniques. Then the compositional rule-base is framed to ascertain the fuzzy risk. This fuzzy risk can be further used to prioritize all the international river basins which can help in the identification of potentially high risk basins. Risk identification of international river basins is not only scientifically valuable, but also practically highly useful. Identifying those basins that are likely to be particularly prone to conflict or cooperation is of high interest to policy makers.

  2. Development and evaluation of a genetic risk score for obesity.

    PubMed

    Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Multi-locus profiles of genetic risk, so-called "genetic risk scores," can be used to translate discoveries from genome-wide association studies into tools for population health research. We developed a genetic risk score for obesity from results of 16 published genome-wide association studies of obesity phenotypes in European-descent samples. We then evaluated this genetic risk score using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort GWAS sample (N = 10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites [for BMI, r = 0.13, p<1 × 10(-30); for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.58)]. The GRS predicted differences in obesity risk net of demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic information. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. The genetic risk score we derived from GWAS provides a molecular measurement of genetic predisposition to elevated BMI and obesity.[Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Biodemography and Social Biology for the following resource: Supplement to Development & Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity.].

  3. CDER risk assessment exercise to evaluate potential risks from the use of nanomaterials in drug products.

    PubMed

    Cruz, Celia N; Tyner, Katherine M; Velazquez, Lydia; Hyams, Kenneth C; Jacobs, Abigail; Shaw, Arthur B; Jiang, Wenlei; Lionberger, Robert; Hinderling, Peter; Kong, Yoon; Brown, Paul C; Ghosh, Tapash; Strasinger, Caroline; Suarez-Sharp, Sandra; Henry, Don; Van Uitert, Maat; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Morefield, Elaine

    2013-07-01

    The Nanotechnology Risk Assessment Working Group in the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) within the United States Food and Drug Administration was established to assess the possible impact of nanotechnology on drug products. The group is in the process of performing risk assessment and management exercises. The task of the working group is to identify areas where CDER may need to optimize its review practices and to develop standards to ensure review consistency for drug applications that may involve the application of nanotechnology. The working group already performed risk management exercises evaluating the potential risks from administering nanomaterial active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) or nanomaterial excipients by various routes of administration. This publication outlines the risk assessment and management process used by the working group, using nanomaterial API by the oral route of administration as an example.

  4. Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Coles, Garill A.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2016-09-26

    This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalized cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.

  5. A Risk-Based Approach to Test and Evaluation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    is it to occur (probability, frequency), and what will be the outcome (consequences)? The SAPHIRE software tool also is introduced as a way to...develop those risk concepts dealing with event trees, fault trees, and desired end states. SAPHIRE is a probabilistic risk, and reliability assessment...software tool. SAPHIRE stands for Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations and was developed for the U.S. Nuclear

  6. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

  7. Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P. ); Morgan, M.G. )

    1994-10-01

    Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.

  8. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  9. Risk evaluation of liquefaction on the site of Damien (Haiti)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jean, B. J.; Boisson, D.; Thimus, J.; Schroeder, C.

    2013-12-01

    Under the proposed relocation of all faculties to the campus of Damien, owned by Université d'Etat d'Haïti (UEH), the Unité de Recherche en Géotechnique (URGéo) of the Faculté des Sciences (FDS) of UEH conducted several operations whose objective was to evaluate the risk of liquefaction on this site. This abstract presents a comprehensive and coherent manner the entire processus of assessing the risk of liquefaction. This evaluation was conducted mainly from seismic thechniques, laboratory tests and the response of a one-dimensional soil column. Then, we summarize the results of this evaluation on the various techniques through synthetic maps interpretations of MASW 1D and H/V and also measures on site response to seismic loading from the SPT test applied to evaluation of liquefaction potential.

  10. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flory, S. Luke; Lorentz, Kimberly A.; Gordon, Doria R.; Sollenberger, Lynn E.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions.

  11. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  12. Developing and Evaluating a Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownson, Ross C.; Mayer, Jeffrey P.; Dusseault, Patricia; Dabney, Sue; Wright, Kathleen; Jackson-Thompson, Jeannette; Malone, Bernard; Goodman, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Describes the development and baseline evaluation data from the Ozark Heart Health Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease risk reduction program in rural Missouri that targeted smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet. Several Ozark counties participated in either intervention or control groups, and researchers conducted surveillance…

  13. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  14. Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

  15. [Evaluation of the embryotoxic risk of industrial chemicals in pregnancy].

    PubMed

    Spielmann, H

    1986-06-01

    For the first time exposure levels during pregnancy have been evaluated for industrial chemicals in the German list of "Maximal occupational exposure limits and biological tolerance levels of occupational chemicals 1985" (MAK-Werte-Liste). According to this evaluation only a single substance (methylmercury) is embryotoxic in man, a prenatal risk cannot be excluded for eight chemicals, and 18 chemicals are safe at occupational exposure limits (MAK-Werte). Furthermore, pregnant women should avoid exposure to any of the 112 carcinogenic chemicals of the list and to 26 substances which are under evaluation for embryotoxic properties. Occupational chemicals are subdivided into four pregnancy riskgroups and discussed with respect to prenatal counselling.

  16. The evaluation of natural attenuation processes in ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Swindoll, C.M.; Dziuk, L.J. |

    1994-12-31

    The intent of the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process is to provide the scientific basis for making remediation decisions that are protective of the environment. In some instances, remedial actions may result in more damage to area flora and fauna than is warranted based on the long-term risk of the chemical stressor; this is particularly true of wetlands. To minimize the potential for putting the site`s ecosystem at greater risk because of remediation, the ERA should include an evaluation of ``no action`` and ``nondestructive`` scenarios. An essential component of this evaluation is an assessment of the natural attenuation of the chemical stressor. Natural processes including biodegradation, hydrolysis, photodegradation, speciation, and complexation can be important to the mitigation of long-term ecological impact of chemical substances. The importance of natural processes for the attenuation of contaminants in aquifers is recognized by both the regulatory and scientific communities and has been adopted by several states as a viable remedial alternative. The potential for natural attenuation to reduce environmental risk is greater for surface environments than for the subsurface. The rationale, methodology, and tools available for evaluating natural attenuation in the context of the ERA process will be presented. Specific examples of implementing this approach at several industrial sites and benefits, including the effective utilization of limited regulatory and industrial resources, will be discussed.

  17. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  18. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  19. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  20. 78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-22

    ... standardization and assessment of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for drug and biological... standardization and evaluation, FDA will hold a public meeting to give stakeholders, including health care... number for the public meeting as follows: ``Docket No. FDA-2013-N-0502, ``Standardization and...

  1. Kennedy space center cardiovascular disease risk reduction program evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Calderon, Kristine S; Smallwood, Charles; Tipton, David A

    2008-01-01

    This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values) are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03); diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002); total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001) as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04). Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05); and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001). These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information at the worksite to high risk CVD participants may impact CVD risk factors. PMID:18561517

  2. Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Butner, J.M.

    1999-08-22

    In this paper, the authors have shown how a qualitative analysis can provide good input to a risk reduction design problem. Traditionally qualitative analyses such as the FMEA can be supplemented by qualitative fault trees and event trees to produce logic models of the accident sequences for the different design options. These models can be compared using rule-based manipulations of qualitative branch point probabilities. A qualitative evaluation of other considerations such as collateral safety effects, operational impacts and worker-safety impacts can provide a more complete picture of the trade-off between options. The authors believe that their risk-reduction analysis approach that combines logic models with qualitative and possibility metrics provides an excellent tool for incorporating safety concerns rapidly and effectively into a conceptual design evaluation.

  3. Preoperative evaluation and risk factors of lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Gaballo, Annarita; Corbo, Giuseppe M; Valente, Salvatore; Ciappi, Giuliano

    2004-01-01

    Based on a review of the literature on resectable lung cancer, pulmonary risk factors before, during and after surgery are discussed. The role of preoperative evaluation in order to determine the patient ability to withstand radical resection is considered. Spirometric indexes as forced expired volume (FEV1) and diffusing lung carbon monoxide capacity (DLCO) should be measured first. If FEV1 and DLCO are > 60% of predicted, patients are at low risk for complications and can undergo pulmonary resection. However, if FEV1 and DLCO are <60% of predicted, further evaluation with a quantitative lung scan is required. If predicted postoperative values for FEV1 and DLCO are >40%, patients can undergo lung resection, otherwise exercise testing is necessary. If the latter shows maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) of > 15ml/Kg, surgery can be performed; if VO2max is <15 ml/Kg, patients are inoperable.

  4. Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

    2006-01-01

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

  5. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    PubMed Central

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  6. Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

  7. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  8. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M.; Spinney P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  9. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  10. USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF EDC RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In Superfund risk management research, the performance of risk management techniques is typically evaluated by measuring "the concentrations of the chemicals of concern before and after risk management efforts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust und...

  11. Evaluation of Incident Risks in a Repository for Radioactive Waste

    SciTech Connect

    Grundler, D.; Mariae, D.; Muller, W.; Boetsch, W.; Thiel, J.

    2008-07-01

    A probabilistic safety assessment of the operation phase of a repository for radioactive waste requires the knowledge of incident risks. These are evaluated from generic observations. The present method accounts for the uncertainty (1) of whether an incident occurs, (2) of the incident rate, (3) of the duration of generic observation, and (4) of the duration of operation phase of the repository. It yields a mean risk and its standard deviation from a minimum of generic data, comprising only the number of observed incidents and the duration of the observation, as more comprehensive generic data are seldom available. It was shown that incidents sharing a common generic observation must be either merged together to a total incident or the generic observation must be split up in sub-observations, one for each such incident. The method was tested on the example of the German Konrad repository for low-level waste in a deep geological formation. (authors)

  12. 76 FR 57767 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-16

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for... NRC Generic Letter 2011- XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors. This action is...

  13. 77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-09

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors..., ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' DATES: Submit comments by... accident assessments for new reactors submitted to support design certification (DC) and combined...

  14. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  15. 76 FR 69294 - Proposed Generic Communication Draft Generic Letter on Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-08

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Generic Communication Draft Generic Letter on Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating... public comment Draft Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors. The public... for public comment Draft Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors...

  16. A dynamical approach to evaluate risk in resource management.

    PubMed

    Hatton, I A; McCann, K S; Umbanhowar, J; Rasmussen, J B

    2006-06-01

    With the depletion of many natural resources, we are growing aware of the need to understand the risks that stem from different management decisions. Here, we outline an approach to test the ability of different dynamical signatures to characterize time-series data: how likely is it that a natural population is declining, sustainable, or increasing, and at what rates are these temporal changes likely occurring? These dynamical signatures can serve as a robust foundation on which to formulate alternative scenarios in a decision analysis. They take account of much of the uncertainty in model parameters and have precise mathematical underpinnings with associated risks. We present methods to evaluate the likelihood of these scenarios, and ways that the analysis can be graphically represented. We discuss different ecological factors such as climate variability, life history, ecosystem interactions, and a changing population age structure, all of which impact the dynamics of natural populations. Considering the types of dynamical signatures that emerge from these factors can change our understanding of risk and the decisions that we make.

  17. Software Supportability Risk Assessment in OT&E (Operational Test and Evaluation): An Evaluation of Risk Methodologies.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-08-31

    DISTRIBUTION: UNIMITED) ELC 0 AUUST 31, M94 Wd/A 8 4 496-TR wwvw WW CORPORATION 1801 RANDOLPH ROAD. S.E * ALSUQUERQUE. NEW MEXICO 87106 *(505) 848-5=0...Road, S.E., Albuquerque, New Mexico , 87106, to the Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center, Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico , 87117. This...metrics described in section 3.4 should be reported in a storyboard fashion. This technique would act as a summary of the ri.sk assessment process

  18. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  19. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  20. Evaluation of Periodontal Risk in Adult Patients using Two Different Risk Assessment Models – A Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Bade, Shruthi; Bollepalli, Appaiah Chowdary; Katuri, Kishore Kumar; Devulapalli, Narasimha Swamy; Swarna, Chakrapani

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the periodontal risk of individuals using periodontal risk assessment (PRA) model and modified PRA model. Materials and Methods: A total of 50 patients with chronic periodontitis, age 30-60 years were selected randomly and charting of the periodontal status was performed and those who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the study. Parameters recorded were- percentage of sites with bleeding on probing (BOP), number of sites with pocket depths (PD) ≥ 5mm, number of the teeth lost, bone loss (BL)/age ratio, Clinical attachment loss(CAL)/age ratio, diabetic and smoking status, dental status, systemic factors like diabetes were assessed. All the risk factors were plotted on the radar chart in (PRA) and (mPRA) models, using Microsoft excel and periodontal risk were categorized as low, moderate and high risk. Results: Among 50 patients 31 were in low risk, 9 in moderate risk, and 10 in high risk identified by modified (PRA) model, whereas 28 patients were in low risk, 13 in moderate risk and 9 in high risk identified by (PRA). Statistical analysis demonstrated that there was no significant difference between the risk scores (X2 = 0.932 with degree of freedom = 2, P = 0.627). Conclusion: Both the periodontal risk models are effective in evaluating the risk factors and can be useful tool for predicting proper diagnosis, disease progression and therapeutic strategies during the supportive periodontal therapy. PMID:25859520

  1. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  2. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  3. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  4. Evaluating the risk of Schistosoma mansoni transmission in mainland China.

    PubMed

    Qu, Guoli; Wang, Wei; Lu, Xiaomin; Dai, Jianrong; Li, Xiaoheng; Liang, Yousheng

    2016-12-01

    Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni, is predominantly distributed in the South Americas and Caribbean; however, this snail, as an invasive species, was introduced to Shenzhen, southern China, in 1981, and recent epidemiologic surveys demonstrate that the distribution of B. straminea has expanded across the Zhujiang River Basin, South China. In the presence of continuous importation of S. mansoni-infected cases, there is a growing concern about the transmission of S. mansoni in China. To evaluate the risk of S. mansoni transmission in China, we tested the compatibility of B. straminea captured from the snail habitats in southern China with S. mansoni in laboratory. We detected no S. mansoni infections in B. straminea following exposure to the parasite larvae at snail/miracidium ratios of 1:5, 1:10, 1:20, 1:40, and 1:80, while 6.7 to 66.7 % infections occurred in the control Biomphalaria glabrata depending on the ratio. The results of the present study demonstrate that the invasive B. straminea snails seem to be incompatible with S. mansoni, suggesting a low risk of S. mansoni transmission in mainland China.

  5. Evaluation of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Golmirzaei, Javad; Namazi, Shole; Amiri, Shahrokh; Zare, Shahram; Rastikerdar, Najme; Hesam, Ali Akbar; Rahami, Zahra; Ghasemian, Fatemeh; Namazi, Seyyed Shojaeddin; Paknahad, Abbas; Mahmudi, Forugh; Mahboobi, Hamidreza; Khorgoei, Tahereh; Niknejad, Bahareh; Dehghani, Fatemeh; Asadi, Shima

    2013-01-01

    Background. Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common psychiatric disorders among children. The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors for ADHD in children. Method. In this case-control study, 404 children between 4 and 11 years old were selected by cluster sampling method from preschool children (208 patients as cases and 196 controls). All the participants were interviewed by a child and adolescent psychiatrist to survey risk factors of ADHD. Results. Among cases, 59.3% of children were boys and 38.4% were girls, which is different to that in control group with 40.7% boys and 61.6% girls. The chi-square showed statistically significance (P value < 0.0001). The other significant factors by chi-square were fathers' somatic or psychiatric disease (P value < 0.0001), history of trauma and accident during pregnancy (P value = 0.039), abortion proceeds (P value < 0.0001), unintended pregnancy (P value < 0.0001), and history of head trauma (P value < 0.0001). Conclusions. Findings of our study suggest that maternal and paternal adverse events were associated with ADHD symptoms, but breast feeding is a protective factor. PMID:24319465

  6. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  7. 77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-06

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors...), Section 19.0 ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' The NRC is... probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information and severe accident assessments for new reactors submitted...

  8. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project.

  9. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  10. Screening for colorectal cancer: possible improvements by risk assessment evaluation?

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Hans J; Jakobsen, Karen V; Christensen, Ib J; Brünner, Nils

    2011-11-01

    Emerging results indicate that screening improves survival of patients with colorectal cancer. Therefore, screening programs are already implemented or are being considered for implementation in Asia, Europe and North America. At present, a great variety of screening methods are available including colono- and sigmoidoscopy, CT- and MR-colonography, capsule endoscopy, DNA and occult blood in feces, and so on. The pros and cons of the various tests, including economic issues, are debated. Although a plethora of evaluated and validated tests even with high specificities and reasonable sensitivities are available, an international consensus on screening procedures is still not established. The rather limited compliance in present screening procedures is a significant drawback. Furthermore, some of the procedures are costly and, therefore, selection methods for these procedures are needed. Current research into improvements of screening for colorectal cancer includes blood-based biological markers, such as proteins, DNA and RNA in combination with various demographically and clinically parameters into a "risk assessment evaluation" (RAE) test. It is assumed that such a test may lead to higher acceptance among the screening populations, and thereby improve the compliances. Furthermore, the involvement of the media, including social media, may add even more individuals to the screening programs. Implementation of validated RAE and progressively improved screening methods may reform the cost/benefit of screening procedures for colorectal cancer. Therefore, results of present research, validating RAE tests, are awaited with interest.

  11. METHODOLOGY FOR THE EVALUATION OF CUMULATIVE EPISODIC EXPOSURE TO CHEMICAL STRESSORS IN AQUATIC RISK ASSESSMENT.

    EPA Science Inventory

    An ecological risk assessment method was developed to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and episodic nature of chemical stressors on aquatic communities. The percent of an ecosystem's species at risk from a designated chemical exposure scenario is generated. In effects assessment...

  12. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    PubMed Central

    Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Sadatmahalleh, Shahideh Jahanian; Akhoond, Mohammad Reza; Talebi, Mehrak

    2016-01-01

    Background Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases) and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group). Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results Gravidity [odds ratio (OR): 0.8, confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01), family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, P<0.001), history of galactorrhea (OR: 2.3, CI: 1.5-3.5, P=0.01), history of pelvic surgery (OR: 1.9, CI: 1.3-2.7, P<0.001), and shorter menstrual cycle length (OR: 0.9, CI: 0.9-0.9, P=0.04) were associated with endometriosis. Duration of natural menstruation and age of menarche were not correlated with subsequent risk of endometriosis (P>0.05). Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many

  13. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  14. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  15. Interactive graphics for expressing health risks: development and qualitative evaluation.

    PubMed

    Ancker, Jessica S; Chan, Connie; Kukafka, Rita

    2009-01-01

    Recent findings suggest that interactive game-like graphics might be useful in communicating probabilities. We developed a prototype for a risk communication module, focusing on eliciting users' preferences for different interactive graphics and assessing usability and user interpretations. Feedback from five focus groups was used to design the graphics. The final version displayed a matrix of square buttons; clicking on any button allowed the user to see whether the stick figure underneath was affected by the health outcome. When participants used this interaction to learn about a risk, they expressed more emotional responses, both positive and negative, than when viewing any static graphic or numerical description of a risk. Their responses included relief about small risks and concern about large risks. The groups also commented on static graphics: arranging the figures affected by disease randomly throughout a group of figures made it more difficult to judge the proportion affected but often was described as more realistic. Interactive graphics appear to have potential for expressing risk magnitude as well as the feeling of risk. This affective impact could be useful in increasing perceived threat of high risks, calming fears about low risks, or comparing risks. Quantitative studies are planned to assess the effect on perceived risks and estimated risk magnitudes.

  16. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  17. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    SciTech Connect

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  18. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: Cognitive bases acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earle, T. C.; Lindell, M. K.; Rankin, W. L.; Nealey, S. M.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies; and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: short term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), long term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  19. Relative risk site evaluations for Yakima Training Center

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.M.; Whelan, G.

    1996-11-01

    All 20 U.S. Army Yakima Training Center (YTC) sites evaluated were given a `low` relative risk. At Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 22, a `minimum` soils contaminant hazard factor was assigned even though 6,700 mg/kg TPH-diesel was found in surface soil. SWMU 22 is physically located on top of and with the fence surrounding Area of Concern (AOC) 4. Because the diesel is most likely associated with AOC 4, and plans are to clean up AOC 4, any further actions regarding these contaminated soils should be addressed as part of the planned actions for AOC 4. Contaminant hazard factors of `moderate` were assigned to the soil pathway for SWMUs 4 and 7 because dieldrin and arsenic, respectively, were found in surface soil samples at concentrations exceeding standards. A `moderate` contaminant hazard factor was also assigned to the sediment pathway for AOC 1 because arsenic detected in sediments in `Larry`s Swimming Pool` exceeded the standard. All other contaminant hazard factors were rated as minimal. The receptor factor for all sites and pathways was rated `limited,` except for SWMU 54 in which the groundwater receptor factor was rated `potential.` A `potential` rating was assigned to the groundwater pathway at this site to be conservative. The site is located on the south side of the syncline axis where the unconfined aquifer may be present and there are no monitoring wells at the site to confirm or deny the presence of groundwater contamination.

  20. Evaluation of skin cancer risk for lunar and Mars missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M. Y.; George, K. A.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    Methods for estimating the probability of excess incidence of skin cancer from space radiation exposure, must consider the variability of skin doses at specific anatomical areas, and the individual factors that may contribute to risk projection models, including skin pigment, and synergistic effects from combined ionizing radiation and UV exposure. Using the multiplicative risk model for transferring the Japanese survivor data to the US population, epidemiological data for the increased risk for skin locations exposed to combined UV and ionizing radiation, and models of space radiation environments, transport, and anatomical shielding, we estimate the skin cancer risk for future lunar and Mars missions. Our model projects that individual variations in the probability for increased skin cancer risk varies more than 10-fold and that an excess cancer risk greater than 1% could occur for astronauts with light skin and hair color exposed to medium class solar particle events during future lunar base operations, or from galactic cosmic rays on Mars missions.

  1. Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

    PubMed Central

    Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

  2. The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs: Understanding Risk, Protection, and Substance Use among High-Risk Youth. Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Springer, J. Fred; Sambrano, Soledad; Sale, Elizabeth; Kasim, Rafa; Hermann, Jack

    This document summarizes findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs, which identified characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes in 48 prevention programs. Major findings include: as youth age, levels of risk and protection shift considerably,…

  3. 75 FR 51815 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-23

    ... (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR); Evaluation of the Health... reproduction and/or development and provide opinion on whether these substances are hazardous for...

  4. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  5. Diagnosis, risk stratification, and response evaluation in classical myeloproliferative neoplasms

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Philadelphia-negative classical myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) include polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The 2016 revision of the WHO Classification of Tumours of Haematopoietic and Lymphoid Tissues includes new criteria for the diagnosis of these disorders. Somatic mutations in the 3 driver genes, that is, JAK2, CALR, and MPL, represent major diagnostic criteria in combination with hematologic and morphological abnormalities. PV is characterized by erythrocytosis with suppressed endogenous erythropoietin production, bone marrow panmyelosis, and JAK2 mutation. Thrombocytosis, bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation are the main diagnostic criteria for ET. PMF is characterized by bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, reticulin and/or collagen fibrosis, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation. Prefibrotic myelofibrosis represents an early phase of myelofibrosis, and is characterized by granulocytic/megakaryocytic proliferation and lack of reticulin fibrosis in the bone marrow. The genomic landscape of MPNs is more complex than initially thought and involves several mutant genes beyond the 3 drivers. Comutated, myeloid tumor-suppressor genes contribute to phenotypic variability, phenotypic shifts, and progression to more aggressive disorders. Patients with myeloid neoplasms are at variable risk of vascular complications, including arterial or venous thrombosis and bleeding. Current prognostic models are mainly based on clinical and hematologic parameters, but innovative models that include genetic data are being developed for both clinical and trial settings. In perspective, molecular profiling of MPNs might also allow for accurate evaluation and monitoring of response to innovative drugs that target the mutant clone. PMID:28028026

  6. Diagnosis, risk stratification, and response evaluation in classical myeloproliferative neoplasms.

    PubMed

    Rumi, Elisa; Cazzola, Mario

    2017-02-09

    Philadelphia-negative classical myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) include polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The 2016 revision of the WHO Classification of Tumours of Haematopoietic and Lymphoid Tissues includes new criteria for the diagnosis of these disorders. Somatic mutations in the 3 driver genes, that is, JAK2, CALR, and MPL, represent major diagnostic criteria in combination with hematologic and morphological abnormalities. PV is characterized by erythrocytosis with suppressed endogenous erythropoietin production, bone marrow panmyelosis, and JAK2 mutation. Thrombocytosis, bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation are the main diagnostic criteria for ET. PMF is characterized by bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, reticulin and/or collagen fibrosis, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation. Prefibrotic myelofibrosis represents an early phase of myelofibrosis, and is characterized by granulocytic/megakaryocytic proliferation and lack of reticulin fibrosis in the bone marrow. The genomic landscape of MPNs is more complex than initially thought and involves several mutant genes beyond the 3 drivers. Comutated, myeloid tumor-suppressor genes contribute to phenotypic variability, phenotypic shifts, and progression to more aggressive disorders. Patients with myeloid neoplasms are at variable risk of vascular complications, including arterial or venous thrombosis and bleeding. Current prognostic models are mainly based on clinical and hematologic parameters, but innovative models that include genetic data are being developed for both clinical and trial settings. In perspective, molecular profiling of MPNs might also allow for accurate evaluation and monitoring of response to innovative drugs that target the mutant clone.

  7. Packaging and transportation risk management and evaluation plan

    SciTech Connect

    Rhyne, W.R.

    1993-09-01

    Shipments of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are governed by a variety of Federal and state regulations, industrial standards, and LANL processes and procedures. Good judgement is exercised in situations that are not covered by regulations. As a result, the safety record for transporting hazardous materials at LANL has been excellent. However, future decisions should be made such that the decision-making process produces a defensible record of the safety of onsite shipments. This report proposes the development of a risk management tool to meet this need. First, the application of quantitative risk analysis methodology to transportation is presented to provide a framework of understanding. Risk analysis definitions, the basic quantitative risk analysis procedure, quantitative methodologies, transportation data bases, and risk presentation techniques are described. Quantitative risk analysis is frequently complex; but simplified approaches can be used as a management tool to make good decisions. Second, a plan to apply the use of risk management principles to the selection of routes, special administrative controls, and containers for hazardous material transportation at LANL is provided. A risk management tool is proposed that can be used by MAT-2 without substantial support from specialized safety and risk analysis personnel, e.g., HS-3. A workbook approach is proposed that can be automated at a later date. The safety of some types of onsite shipments at LANL is not well documented. Documenting that shipments are safe, i.e., present acceptable risks, will likely require elaborate analyses that should be thoroughly reviewed by safety and risk professionals. These detailed analyses are used as benchmarks and as examples for the use of the proposed tool by MAT-2. Once the benchmarks are established, the workbook can be used by MAT-2 to quantify that safety goals are met by similar shipments.

  8. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites. The report provides an overview of an approach for assessing risk to ...

  9. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  10. CERTS; A Comparative Evaluation Method for Risk Management Methodologies and Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    This thesis develops a comparative evaluation method for computer security risk management methodologies and tools. The subjective biases inherent to...current comparison practices are reduced by measuring unique characteristics of computer security risk management methodologies. Standardized...methodologies and tools to each other. As a demonstration of its effectiveness, our method is applied to four distinct risk management methodologies and

  11. Clinical Evaluation of a Novel and Mobile Autism Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Marlena; Daniels, Jena; Wall, Dennis P.

    2016-01-01

    The Mobile Autism Risk Assessment (MARA) is a new, electronically administered, 7-question autism spectrum disorder (ASD) screen to triage those at highest risk for ASD. Children 16 months-17 years (N = 222) were screened during their first visit in a developmental-behavioral pediatric clinic. MARA scores were compared to diagnosis from the…

  12. Evaluation of the Recognizing and Responding to Suicide Risk Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Jodi Michelle; Osteen, Philip; Jones, Andrea; Berman, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Changes in attitudes, confidence, and practice behaviors were assessed among 452 clinicians who completed the training, Recognizing and Responding to Suicide Risk, and who work with clients at risk for suicide. Data were collected at three time points. Scores on measures of attitudes toward suicide prevention and confidence to work with clients at…

  13. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  14. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  15. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  16. Balloon aortic valvuloplasty as a bridge-to-decision in high risk patients with aortic stenosis: a new paradigm for the heart team decision making

    PubMed Central

    Saia, Francesco; Moretti, Carolina; Dall'Ara, Gianni; Ciuca, Cristina; Taglieri, Nevio; Berardini, Alessandra; Gallo, Pamela; Cannizzo, Marina; Chiarabelli, Matteo; Ramponi, Niccolò; Taffani, Linda; Bacchi-Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Marrozzini, Cinzia; Rapezzi, Claudio; Marzocchi, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Background Whilst the majority of the patients with severe aortic stenosis can be directly addressed to surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), in some instances additional information may be needed to complete the diagnostic workout. We evaluated the role of balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) as a bridge-to-decision (BTD) in selected high-risk patients. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, the heart team in our Institution required BTD BAV in 202 patients. Very low left ventricular ejection fraction, mitral regurgitation grade ≥ 3, frailty, hemodynamic instability, serious comorbidity, or a combination of these factors were the main drivers for this strategy. We evaluated how BAV influenced the final treatment strategy in the whole patient group and in each specific subgroup. Results Mean logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 23.5% ± 15.3%, age 81 ± 7 years. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%, cerebrovascular accident 1% and overall vascular complications 4% (0.5% major; 3.5% minor). Of the 193 patients with BTD BAV who survived and received a second heart team evaluation, 72.6% were finally deemed eligible for definitive treatment (25.4% for AVR; 47.2% for TAVI): 96.7% of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction recovery; 70.5% of patients with mitral regurgitation reduction; 75.7% of patients who underwent BAV in clinical hemodynamic instability; 69.2% of frail patients and 68% of patients who presented serious comorbidities. Conclusions Balloon aortic valvuloplasty can be considered as bridge-to-decision in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis who cannot be immediate candidates for definitive transcatheter or surgical treatment. PMID:27582761

  17. Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne

    2010-01-01

    Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

  18. Qualitative risk evaluation of environmental restoration programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, S.C.

    1996-05-01

    This report documents the evaluation of risks associated with environmental restoration activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory using two tools supplied by DOE to provide a consistent set of risk estimates across the DOE complex: Risk Data Sheets (RDS) and Relative Risk Ranking. The tools are described, the process taken characterized, results provided and discussed. The two approaches are compared and recommendations provided for continuing improvement of the process.

  19. Evaluating and mitigating fracture risk in established rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Mullen, Matthew B; Saag, Kenneth G

    2015-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis are predisposed to systemic bone loss, and they are at an increased risk of fractures. Although there are similarities in the patient demographics between rheumatoid arthritis patients and the general population of osteoporosis patients, there are factors, particularly the use of glucocorticoids, which are specific to rheumatoid arthritis. These factors can lead to an increased risk of bone loss and fracture. Given that fractures are often very debilitating, especially in elderly patients, it is of paramount importance for the practicing rheumatologist to be aware of ways to reduce the risk of fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review discusses currently available modalities for fracture risk assessment as well as pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions available to treat and prevent bone loss in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  20. Evaluation of Human Performance Issues for Fire Risk

    SciTech Connect

    Bley, Dennis C.; Cooper, Susan E.; Forester, John A.; Kolaczkowski, Alan M.; Ramey-Smith, Ann; Thompson, Catherine M.; Whitehead, Donnie W.; Wreathall, John

    1999-05-04

    This paper summarizes the current status of the treatment of human reliability in fire risk analyses for nuclear power plants and identifies areas that need to be addressed. A new approach is suggested to improve the modeling.

  1. Long-Term Outcomes of Conventional Aortic Valve Replacement in High-Risk Patients: Where Do We Stand?

    PubMed Central

    Fortuna, Daniela; Contini, Giovanni Andrea; Pacini, Davide; Gabbieri, Davide; De Palma, Rossana; Gherli, Tiziano

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The introduction of transcatheter aortic valves has focused attention on the results of conventional aortic valve surgery in high-risk patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate 5-years outcomes in this category of patients in the current surgical era. Methods: This is an observational retrospective study of 581 high-risk patients undergoing aortic valve replacement from 2008 to 2013, with a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 26.6% ± 14.6%. Data were prospectively collected in a database of Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). Results: Overall 30-day mortality was 9.3%. Stroke rate was 1.5%. At 1-, 3-, and 5-years overall mortality was 18.2%, 30.4%, and 42.2%, cardiac death rate was 3.9%, 9.2%, and 12.9%, stroke rate 2.5%, 7.7%, and 10.2%, re-operation occurrence 0.2%, 0.9% and 1.3%, and new pacemaker implantation was 2.3%, 5.1% and 7.8%. At multivariate analysis, urgency, hemodynamic instability, LVEF ≤30%, NYHA III-IV, severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), extra-cardiac arteriopathy, cerebrovascular disease, and creatinine >2.0 mg/dL remained independent predictors of 5-year mortality. Conclusion: The results of the current study add weight to the evidence that traditional aortic valve replacement can be performed in high-risk patients with satisfactory 5-year mortality and morbidity. Our study may help to improve decision-making in this category of high-risk patients with aortic valve disease. PMID:27645551

  2. Risk Evaluation of Bogie System Based on Extension Theory and Entropy Weight Method

    PubMed Central

    Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui

    2014-01-01

    A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly. PMID:25574159

  3. Evaluation of the quality of life and risk of suicide

    PubMed Central

    de Medeiros Alves, Verônica; de Lima Francisco, Leilane Camila Ferreira; Belo, Flaviane Maria Pereira; de-Melo-Neto, Valfrido Leão; Barros, Vinicius Gomes; Nardi, Antonio E

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic profiles, suicidal ideation, the presence of mental disorders and the quality of life of patients using mental health services in Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in family health units and the Psychosocial Attention Center. The sample included 202 mental disorder patients with a risk of suicide attempts, 207 mental disorder patients without a risk of suicide attempts and 196 controls. This study used an identification questionnaire, the abbreviated World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire, Beck‘s Suicidal Ideation Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: Patients who had a mental disorder and a risk of suicide attempts tended to be single, had less education and lower family income, were not working and showed lower scores in quality of life domains; 73 of these patients had suicidal ideation in the previous week. Depressive disorders, manic episodes, hypomanic episodes, social phobias, obsessive compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychotic syndromes and generalized anxiety disorder were more frequent and statistically significant for patients at risk for suicide attempts. CONCLUSION: The management of patients with a risk of suicide attempts must focus on individual patients because this risk is directly linked to changes in quality of life and the improvement of these patients' prognosis. PMID:27074173

  4. Evaluation of skin cancer risk for lunar and Mars missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    Methods used to estimate the probability of excess incidence of skin cancer from space radiation exposure must take into consideration the variability of dose to different areas of the body and the individual factors that may contribute to increased risk, including skin pigment and synergistic effects from combined ionizing and UV exposure. We have estimated the skin cancer risk for future lunar and Mars missions using: (1) the multiplicative risk model for transferring the Japanese survivor data to the US population, (2) epidemiological data for the increased risk for skin locations exposed to combined UV and ionizing radiation, and (3) models of space radiation environments, transport, and anatomical shielding for 5260 skin loci. We have estimated that the probability for increased skin cancer risk from solar particle events varies more than 10-fold depending on the individual and area of skin exposed. We show that a skin cancer risk greater than 1% could occur for astronauts with light skin and hair color following exposure to medium or large class solar particle events during future lunar base operations, or from exposure to galactic cosmic rays during Mars missions.

  5. Risk evaluation of land subsidence and its application to metro safety operation in Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Wang, H.; Yan, X.

    2015-11-01

    Based on sufficiently investigating characteristics and risk connotation of land subsidence, a risk evaluation index system for land subsidence disaster is established, which is combined with the sensitivity feature of the hazard bearing body to land subsidence. An appropriate evaluation method system is established by using an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method. So risk evaluation is developed for providing theoretical basis and technical support for the regional management of land subsidence prevention and control. On this basis, as a case of Shanghai metro, firstly, the paper studies the identifying risk sources of the metro. According to metro linear characteristics, external indexes of representing subsidence risk are obtained. Studying the subsidence risk of the metro, relevant achievement has provided the technical basis for daily main monitoring, early warning and work arrangement.

  6. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  7. Single particle effects, Biostack, and risk evaluation - Studies on the radiation risk from Galactic cosmic rays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    The possible health risks posed by Galactic cosmic rays, especially the possible heightened cancer risk, are examined. The results of the Biostack studies of the biological effects of high-energy cosmic rays are discussed. The biological mechanisms involved in possible harm due to cosmic rays are considered.

  8. [Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

    PubMed

    Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.

  9. [Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

    PubMed

    Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

    2016-05-15

    Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

  10. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  11. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  12. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  13. DEVELOPING TOOLS FOR EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) risk management (RM) is to minimize the release of EDCs into the environment or to minimize the exposure of humans or wildlife to EDCs already present in the environment. RM research projects may involve: substituting more innocuous...

  14. A Bridge Course for High-Risk Freshman: Evaluating Outcomes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hardy, Dorothy C.; Karathanos, Demetrius

    1992-01-01

    Examines outcomes of a "bridge" course for first-year college students that emphasizes personal and psychological adjustment to the university experience to enhance the likelihood of academic success. Findings from 59 high-risk students who completed course suggest that goal of enhancing likelihood of academic success for such students was…

  15. Risk in Enterprise Cloud Computing: Re-Evaluated

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Funmilayo, Bolonduro, R.

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative study was conducted to get the perspectives of IT experts about risks in enterprise cloud computing. In businesses, these IT experts are often not in positions to prioritize business needs. The business experts commonly known as business managers mostly determine an organization's business needs. Even if an IT expert classified a…

  16. A risk evaluation for the fuel retrieval sub-project

    SciTech Connect

    Carlisle, B.S.

    1996-10-11

    This study reviews the technical, schedule and budget baselines of the sub-project to assure all significant issues have been identified on the sub-project issues management list. The issue resolution dates are identified and resolution plans established. Those issues that could adversely impact procurement activities have been uniquely identified on the list and a risk assessment completed.

  17. Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area.

    PubMed

    Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng

    2012-03-15

    Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure.

  18. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making.

  19. Preface to the Special Issue on High-Risk, Critical-Skills Training Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cantor, Jeffrey A.

    1992-01-01

    Summarizes the six articles included in this special issue, which discuss evaluation of human performance in critical skills occupations; strategic planning for safety in high-risk occupations; performance and training effectiveness decisions; performance indicators for training evaluation; evaluation of a nuclear training program; and a model for…

  20. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2004, ORD's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) received a request from the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) relating to the evaluation of ecological risk to vertebrate and benthic invertebrate receptors from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds...

  1. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T. ); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. )

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  2. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-12-31

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  3. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums.

  4. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    MedlinePlus

    ... Balance Problems Diabetes Fainting (Syncope) Foot Problems Fractures Osteoporosis Physical Activity Prevention Sleep Problems Stroke Join our e- ... medications reveals possible toxic levels Detailed memory testing Physical therapy assessment A home safety evaluation. Updated: March 2012 ...

  5. Use of risk assessment to evaluate effects and plan remediation of abandoned mines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyle, T.P.

    2000-01-01

    A framework of risk assessment is elaborated for the evaluation of the effects of abandoned mines and mills. Steps in this process include environmental description, identification and characterization of sources, assessment of exposure, assessment of effects, risk characterization, and risk management of remediation. The development and use of ecological end-points for remediation is discussed in terms of the chemical constituents, toxicity tests and the biological community.

  6. Evaluating Anthropogenic Risk of Grassland and Forest Habitat Degradation Using Land-Cover Data

    EPA Science Inventory

    The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate an approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining ...

  7. 78 FR 8522 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Risk From...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-06

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Risk From Volatilization... review of chlorpyrifos and opens a public comment period on this document. Registration review is EPA's... has completed a preliminary volatilization assessment for chlorpyrifos uses. After reviewing...

  8. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    SciTech Connect

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-05-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

  9. Improving Ascertainment of Risk Factors for HIV Infection: Results of a Group-Randomized Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Kathleen McDavid; Pals, Sherri L.; Sajak, Tammy; Chase, Jennifer; Kajese, Tebitha

    2010-01-01

    To allow appropriate allocation of prevention and care funding, HIV/AIDS surveillance data must include risk factor information, currently available for less than 70% of cases reported in the United States. The authors evaluated an intervention consisting of provider training and materials to improve risk factor reporting. Facilities were matched…

  10. Perceived Risk in College Selection: Differences in Evaluative Criteria Used by Students and Parents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warwick, Jacquelyn; Mansfield, Phylis M.

    2003-01-01

    Students and parents base college selection on how well the college will overcome the perceived financial, social, psychological, physical, and functional risks associated with the college experience. Nineteen criteria associated with these risks were evaluated for significant differences between students and parents as well as for their level of…

  11. PHILADELPHIA AIR TOXICS STUDY: EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT OPTIONS USING MIRA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluation of risk management options usually takes place within single programs at the U.S. EPA. This can produce inadvertent tradeoffs among important criteria by risk managers and other decision makers; resulting in decision surprises. This study is a demonstration of a diff...

  12. The value-at-risk evaluation of Brent's crude oil market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheong, Chin Wen; Isa, Zaidi; Ying, Khor Chia; Lai, Ng Sew

    2014-06-01

    This study investigates the market risk of the Brent's crude oil market. First the long memory time-varying volatility is modelled under the Chung's specification. Second, for model adequacy evaluations on the heavy-tailed, long memory and endogenously estimated power transformation models indicated superior performance in out-of-sample forecasts. Lastly, these findings are further applied in the long and short trading positions of market risk evaluations of the Brent's market.

  13. Biomechanical evaluation of dancers and assessment of their risk of injury.

    PubMed

    Schoene, Lisa M

    2007-01-01

    Professional dancers have a 90% risk of injury during their career. The lower extremity is involved in approximately 75% of the injuries sustained by dancers. Proper biomechanical evaluation, risk assessment, and prevention-oriented treatment are necessary to minimize future problems and promote a full and lasting recovery when an injury is sustained. This article outlines the in-office evaluation process and discusses backstage care.

  14. Nutritional risk and anthropometric evaluation in pediatric liver transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Zamberlan, Patrícia; Leone, Cláudio; Tannuri, Uenis; de Carvalho, Werther Brunow; Delgado, Artur Figueiredo

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To analyze the nutritional status of pediatric patients after orthotopic liver transplantation and the relationship with short-term clinical outcome. METHOD: Anthropometric evaluations of 60 children and adolescents after orthotopic liver transplantation, during the first 24 hours in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. Nutritional status was determined from the Z score for the following indices: weight/age, height/age or length/age, weight/height or weight/length, body mass index/age, arm circumference/age and triceps skinfold/age. The severity of liver disease was evaluated using one of the two models which was adequated to the patients' age: 1. Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease, 2. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease. RESULTS: We found 50.0% undernutrition by height/age; 27.3% by weight/age; 11.1% by weight/height or weight/length; 10.0% by body mass index/age; 61.6% by arm circumference/age and 51.0% by triceps skinfold/age. There was no correlation between nutritional status and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease or mortality. We found a negative correlation between arm circumference/age and length of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Children with chronic liver diseases experience a significant degree of undernutrition, which makes nutritional support an important aspect of therapy. Despite the difficulties in assessment, anthropometric evaluation of the upper limbs is useful to evaluate nutritional status of children before or after liver transplantation. PMID:23295591

  15. Basin Scale Water Infrastructure Investment Evaluation Considering Climate Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaheil, Y. H.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    Water storage infrastructure has historically been a primary means of addressing vulnerability to climate risk. Rainfall, and streamflow fluctuate at many time scales, rendering supply unreliable unless a mechanism for surface or subsurface storage is provided. Irrigated agriculture typically provides dramatically higher yields relative to rain fed agriculture, by ensuring a regular, when needed water supply. Irrigation is also typically the dominant water user in most parts of the world. Addressing storage-irrigation infrastructure needs is thus a critical piece in developing a strategy for regional water and food security in the face of a changing climate. In the 20th century, large reservoir and canal system projects were funded and developed in many regions. It is argued that these played a significant role in facilitating the Green Revolution in India, Pakistan and elsewhere. However, this notion has been challenged, and many negative environmental and socio-economic impacts of such projects have been highlighted. Governance and maintenance of such hydraulic infrastructure has also been a challenge, and a paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and participatory processes has been argued for. In the last decade or so, considerable interest has been directed towards local or on-farm decentralized storage development, i.e., towards small scale reservoir and use systems where governance may be less of an issue. There has been government support of such activities in countries such as India, leading to a rapid proliferation of such systems in some areas. Questions about the effect of such development on the regional hydrologic balance and as to their resilience in a changing climate arise. Further, in the spirit of IWRM, one needs to consider the potential use of water as well as the development and management of supply. In the current context, a central question that can be posed is the identification of the best mix of centralized and

  16. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    PubMed

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  17. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation. PMID:26528994

  18. Methods to evaluate the nutrition risk in hospitalized patients

    PubMed Central

    Erkan, Tülay

    2014-01-01

    The rate of malnutrition is substantially high both in the population and in chronic patients hospitalized because of different reasons. The rate of patients with no marked malnutrition at the time of hospitalization who develop malnutrition during hospitalization is also substantially high. Therefore, there are currently different screening methods with different targets to prevent malnutrition and its overlook. These methods should be simple and reliable and should not be time-consuming in order to be used in daily practice. Seven nutrition risk screening methods used in children have been established until the present time. However, no consensus has been made on any method as in adults. It should be accepted that interrogation of nutrition is a part of normal examination to increase awareness on this issue and to draw attention to this issue. PMID:26078678

  19. Emerging technologies in healthcare: navigating risks, evaluating rewards.

    PubMed

    McGrady, Elizabeth; Conger, Sue; Blanke, Sandra; Landry, Brett J L

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this prescriptive research is to help decision makers become better informed about three technologies emerging in the healthcare arena by providing a basic description of the technology and describing their current applications, future healthcare deployment, potential risks, and related managerial issues. Two of the technologies, radio frequency identification (RFID) and global positioning systems (GPS), are currently available to healthcare organizations and appear capable of decreasing cost but may require significant initial investment and have disruptive potential. The third technology, nanotechnology, has limited current use but may revolutionize both the delivery of medicine and hospital infrastructure management. With cautious attention to managerial issues and meticulous attention to implementation details, healthcare organizations that can successfully navigate the coming technologically driven paradigm shifts will emerge more resilient organizations.

  20. SCOPE of Pain: An Evaluation of an Opioid Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Continuing Education Program

    PubMed Central

    Zisblatt, Lara; Ng, Pamela; Hayes, Sean M.; Peloquin, Sophie; Hardesty, Ilana; White, Julie L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Due to the high prevalence of prescription opioid misuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) mandated a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requiring manufacturers of extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioid analgesics to fund continuing education based on a FDA Blueprint. This article describes the Safe and Competent Opioid Prescribing Education (SCOPE of Pain) program, an ER/LA opioid analgesic REMS program, and its impact on clinician knowledge, confidence, attitudes, and self-reported clinical practice. Method. Participants of the 3-h SCOPE of Pain training completed pre-, immediate post- and 2-month post-assessments. Subjects. The primary target group (n = 2,850), and a subset (n = 476) who completed a 2-month post-assessment, consisted of clinicians licensed to prescribe ER/LA opioid analgesics, who care for patients with chronic pain and who completed the 3-h training between February 28, 2013 and June 13, 2014. Results. Immediately post-program, there was a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 84%, P ≤ 0.02) and 87% of participants planned to make practice changes. At 2-months post-program, there continued to be a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 69%, P ≤ 0.03) and 67% reported increased confidence in applying safe opioid prescribing care and 86% reported implementing practice changes. There was also an improvement in alignment of desired attitudes toward safe opioid prescribing. Conclusions. The SCOPE of Pain program improved knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and self-reported clinical practice in safe opioid prescribing. This national REMS program holds potential to improve the safe use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:26304703

  1. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  2. The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Latimer, John A.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

  3. Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, H.R. Abadin, H.G.

    2008-11-15

    Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se.

  4. Risk Assessment of Physical Hazards in Greek Hospitals Combining Staff's Perception, Experts' Evaluation and Objective Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Sourtzi, Panayiota; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sgourou, Evi; Koumoulas, Emmanouel; Velonakis, Emmanouel

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The promotion of health and safety (H&S) awareness among hospital staff can be applied through various methods. The aim of this study was to assess the risk level of physical hazards in the hospital sector by combining workers' perception, experts' evaluation and objective measurements. Methods A cross-sectional study was designed using multiple triangulation. Hospital staff (n = 447) filled in an H&S questionnaire in a general hospital in Athens and an oncology one in Thessaloniki. Experts observed and filled in a checklist on H&S in the various departments of the two hospitals. Lighting, noise and microclimate measurements were performed. Results The staff's perception of risk was higher than that of the experts in many cases. The measured risk levels were low to medium. In cases of high-risk noise and lighting, staff and experts agreed. Staff's perception of risk was influenced by hospital's department, hospital's service, years of working experience and level of education. Therefore, these factors should be taken into account in future studies aimed at increasing the participation of hospital workers. Conclusion This study confirmed the usefulness of staff participation in the risk assessment process, despite the tendency for staff to overestimate the risk level of physical hazards. The combination of combining staff perception, experts' evaluation and objective measures in the risk assessment process increases the efficiency of risk management in the hospital environment and the enforcement of relevant legislation. PMID:22953210

  5. Chemical/Radiation Hormesis Database, Evaluation of Hormetic Mechanisms and their Biomedical and Risk Assessment Implications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    independent of biological model, endpoint measured and chemical class evaluated. These findings have potential implications with respect to drug discovery ... drug development and clinical evaluation as well as inhuman toxicology and risk assessment. The completed findings have been subjected to peer-review

  6. Social stability and HIV risk behavior: evaluating the role of accumulated vulnerability.

    PubMed

    German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention.

  7. Retinal image analysis for automated glaucoma risk evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyúl, László G.

    2009-10-01

    Images of the eye ground not only provide an insight to important parts of the visual system but also reflect the general state of health of the entire human body. Automatic retina image analysis is becoming an important screening tool for early detection of certain risks and diseases. Glaucoma is one of the most common causes of blindness and is becoming even more important considering the ageing society. Robust mass-screening may help to extend the symptom-free life of affected patients. Our research is focused on a novel automated classification system for glaucoma, based on image features from fundus photographs. Our new data-driven approach requires no manual assistance and does not depend on explicit structure segmentation and measurements. First, disease independent variations, such as nonuniform illumination, size differences, and blood vessels are eliminated from the images. Then, the extracted high-dimensional feature vectors are compressed via PCA and combined before classification with SVMs takes place. The technique achieves an accuracy of detecting glaucomatous retina fundus images comparable to that of human experts. The "vessel-free" images and intermediate output of the methods are novel representations of the data for the physicians that may provide new insight into and help to better understand glaucoma.

  8. Risk evaluation - conventional and low level effects of radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, V.P.; Varma, M.N.

    1984-04-01

    Any discussion of the risk of exposure to potentially-hazardous agents in the environment inevitably involves the question of whether the dose effect curve is of the threshold or linear, non-threshold type. A principal objective of this presentation is to show that the function is actually two separate relationships, each representing distinctly different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different disciplines (i.e., the threshold function, of Pharmacology, Toxicology and Medicine (PTM); the linear, non-threshold function, of Public Health including safety and accident statistics (PHS)). It is shown that low-level exposure (LLE) to radiation falls clearly in the PHS category. A function for cell dose vs. the fraction of single cell quantal responses is characterized, which reflects the absolute and relative sensitivities of cells. Acceptance of this function would obviate any requirement for the use in Radiation Protection of the concepts of a standard radiation, Q, dose equivalent and rem. 9 references, 4 figures.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment for comparative evaluation of security features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saksena, Anshu; Lucarelli, Dennis

    2004-06-01

    A systematic approach for comparing the effectiveness of counterfeit deterrence features in banknotes, credit cards, digital media, etc. was previously presented. That approach built a probabilistic model around the expert identification of the most efficient process by which a counterfeiter can gain sufficient information to replicate a particular feature. We have extended the scope and functionality of that approach to encompass the entire counterfeiting process from the learning phase to the production of counterfeits. The extended approach makes determining the probabilities more straightforward by representing a more detailed model of the counterfeiting process, including many probable counterfeiting scenarios rather than just representing the least costly successful scenario. It uses the counterfeiter's probability of succeeding and level of effort as metrics to perform feature comparisons. As before, these metrics are evaluated for a security feature and presented in a way that facilitates comparison with other security features similarly evaluated. Based on this representation, the cost and laboratory procedures necessary for succeeding may be recovered by a dynamic programming technique. This information may be useful in forensic profiling of potential counterfeiters.

  10. [Integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters affecting longyan yield in Fujian Province, East China].

    PubMed

    Chen, Jia-Jin; Wang, Jia-Yi; Li, Li-Chun; Lin, Jing; Yang, Kai; Ma, Zhi-Guo; Xu, Zong-Huan

    2012-03-01

    In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters on the Longyan production in Fujian Province was constructed, based on the analysis of the major environmental factors affecting the Longyan growth and yield, and from the viewpoints of potential hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Longyan growth regions in the Province. In addition, an integrated evaluation model of multiple disasters was established to evaluate the risks of the major agro-meteorological disasters affecting the Longyan yield, based on the yearly meteorological data, Longyan planting area and yield, and other socio-economic data in Longyan growth region in Fujian, and by using the integral weight of risk indices determined by AHP and entropy weight coefficient methods. In the Province, the Longyan growth regions with light integrated risk of multiple disasters were distributed in the coastal counties (except Dongshan County) with low elevation south of Changle, the regions with severe and more severe integrated risk were mainly in Zhangping of Longyan, Dongshan, Pinghe, Nanjin, and Hua' an of Zhangzhou, Yongchun and Anxi of Quanzhou, north mountainous areas of Putian and Xianyou, Minqing, Minhou, Luoyuan, and mountainous areas of Fuzhou, and Fuan, Xiapu, and mountainous areas of Ninde, among which, the regions with severe integrated risk were in Dongshan, Zhangping, and other mountainous areas with high altitudes, and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the Province.

  11. Retinal vein occlusion: evaluation of "classic" and "emerging" risk factors and treatment.

    PubMed

    Turello, Marina; Pasca, Samantha; Daminato, Roberto; Dello Russo, Patrizia; Giacomello, Roberta; Venturelli, Ugo; Barillari, Giovanni

    2010-05-01

    Retinal vein occlusion (RVO) is the second most common retinal vein disease and an important cause of blindness and visual morbidity. Systemic risk factors are commonly associated with RVO, while unclear it is the role of the thrombophilic and coagulation disorders. To evaluate "classic" and "emerging" risk factors, and to establish a good treatment for RVO. Fifty patients, 31 males and 19 females, with RVO were selected for our study. RVO patients were divided into two groups: those with central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) and those with branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO). All patients were subjected to an anamnestic investigation and were tested for thrombophilia, coagulation disorders and hyperlipidemia. Treatment and prophylaxis were evaluated. We have named "classic" the systemic risk factors associated with RVO and "emerging" those risk factors, haemostasis related, not clearly associated with RVO. RVO occurs more commonly in patients aged over 50. "Emerging" risk factors were more frequent in CRVO, "classic" in BRVO. Hyperhomocysteinemia is the most common "emerging" risk factor related to RVO. 71.4% of tested patients had hypercholesterolemia. Treatment with LMWH would appear to be safe and effective, but the small number of patients considered not allow us a definitive evaluation of its efficacy. Although our study has shown the correlation between RVO and the "emerging" risk factors, more studies are necessary to better know the real role of thrombophilic and coagulation disorders in this disease and to determine a specific protocol for the treatment and prophylaxis of RVO.

  12. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

    2016-06-01

    A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.

  13. Evaluation of risks from contaminated waters-demystification of the process

    SciTech Connect

    Staples, C.A.; Kimerle, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of chemicals on human or environmental health requires explanation of the interactions of chemical effects with chemical exposure. Whether anthropogenic or redistributed naturally occurring substances are being evaluated, the process is the same; both effects and exposure need to be considered simultaneously to understand and quantify human or environmental health impacts. The process of evaluating and quantifying health impacts is called risk assessment. The process of risk assessment couples chemical exposure concentrations with toxicological information in the same calculation procedure. Often assumptions are made to simplify the process; in other cases, sufficient data may be present to avoid possibly indefensible assumptions. The risk assessment calculation procedures available today have been developed primarily for regulatory decision making and allow both a direct measure of risk and a relative scaling of risk. The presentation made here will cover the basic aspects of the risk assessment process. The calculation procedures, assumptions and interpretation of risk analysis results will be explained. Demystification of the risk assessment process should make it a more useful and viable tool for decision makers.

  14. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  15. Evaluation of rear-end crash risk at work zone using work zone traffic data.

    PubMed

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims to evaluate the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area and merging area, as well as analyze the impacts of contributing factors by using work zone traffic data. Here, the rear-end crash risk is referred to as the probability that a vehicle is involved in a rear-end crash accident. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is used in measuring rear-end crash risk. Based on work zone traffic data in Singapore, three rear-end crash risk models are developed to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk at activity area and its contributing factors. The fourth rear-end crash risk model is developed to examine the effects of merging behavior on crash risk at merging area. The ANOVA results show that the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area is statistically different from lane positions. Model results indicate that rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area increases with heavy vehicle percentage and lane traffic flow rate. An interesting finding is that the lane closer to work zone is strongly associated with higher rear-end crash risk. A truck has much higher probability involving in a rear-end accident than a car. Further, the expressway work zone activity area is found to have much larger crash risk than arterial work zone activity area. The merging choice has the dominated effect on risk reduction, suggesting that encouraging vehicles to merge early may be the most effective method to reduce rear-end crash risk at work zone merging area.

  16. Uncertainties in evaluation of hazard and seismic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen; Manea, Elena-Florinela

    2015-04-01

    Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic(DSHA) seismic hazard analysis.Selection of a ground motion for engineering design requires a clear understanding of seismic hazard and risk among stakeholders, seismologists and engineers. What is wrong with traditional PSHA or DSHA ? PSHA common used in engineering is using four assumptions developed by Cornell in 1968:(1)-Constant-in-time average occurrence rate of earthquakes; (2)-Single point source; (3).Variability of ground motion at a site is independent;(4)-Poisson(or "memory - less") behavior of earthquake occurrences. It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the inability of us to predict the course of nature"(Nils Bohr). DSHA method was used for the original design of Fukushima Daichii, but Japanese authorities moved to probabilistic assessment methods and the probability of exceeding of the design basis acceleration was expected to be 10-4-10-6 . It was exceeded and it was a violation of the principles of deterministic hazard analysis (ignoring historical events)(Klügel,J,U, EGU,2014, ISSO). PSHA was developed from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science(invalid physical models- point source and Poisson distribution; invalid mathematics; misinterpretation of annual probability of exceeding or return period etc.) and become a pure numerical "creation" (Wang, PAGEOPH.168(2011),11-25). An uncertainty which is a key component for seismic hazard assessment including both PSHA and DSHA is the ground motion attenuation relationship or the so-called ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground motion parameter (i.e., PGA,MMI etc.), earthquake magnitude M, source to site distance R, and an uncertainty. So far, no one is taking into consideration strong nonlinear behavior of soils during of strong earthquakes. But

  17. Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

    SciTech Connect

    Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-01-31

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i

  18. Risk Evaluation for CO2 Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup, Illinois Basin Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-09-30

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently

  19. Benefit-risk Evaluation for Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME).

    PubMed

    Evans, Scott R; Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Jiang, Hongyu; Hujer, Andrea M; Hujer, Kristine M; Manca, Claudia; Hill, Carol; Jacobs, Michael R; Chen, Liang; Patel, Robin; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Bonomo, Robert A

    2016-09-15

    The medical community needs systematic and pragmatic approaches for evaluating the benefit-risk trade-offs of diagnostics that assist in medical decision making. Benefit-Risk Evaluation of Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME) is a strategy for pragmatic evaluation of diagnostics designed to supplement traditional approaches. BED-FRAME evaluates diagnostic yield and addresses 2 key issues: (1) that diagnostic yield depends on prevalence, and (2) that different diagnostic errors carry different clinical consequences. As such, evaluating and comparing diagnostics depends on prevalence and the relative importance of potential errors. BED-FRAME provides a tool for communicating the expected clinical impact of diagnostic application and the expected trade-offs of diagnostic alternatives. BED-FRAME is a useful fundamental supplement to the standard analysis of diagnostic studies that will aid in clinical decision making.

  20. Evaluating criticality safety of TRU waste with NDA measurements and risk analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Hochel, R.C.; Hofstetter, K.J.; Sigg, R.A.; Winn, W.G.; Chay, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The criticality safety of {sup 239}Pu in 55-gal. drums stored in TRU waste containers (concrete culverts) was evaluated using NDA neutron and gamma measurements and risk analyses. The neutron measurements yielded a {sup 239}Pu mass and k{sub eff} for a culvert, which contains up to 14 drums. The gamma measurements helped reveal and correct for any interfering neutron sources in the waste. Conservation probabilistic risk analyses were developed for both drums and culverts.

  1. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    PubMed

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-01-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  2. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    PubMed

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-04-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  3. Evaluating the Control Banding Nanotool: a qualitative risk assessment method for controlling nanoparticle exposures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zalk, David M.; Paik, Samuel Y.; Swuste, Paul

    2009-10-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified processes for controlling worker exposures in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure information. The nanotechnology industry is an excellent candidate for applying such strategies with overwhelming uncertainties of work-related health risks posed by nanomaterials. A recent survey shows that a majority of nanomaterial producers are not performing a basic risk assessment of their product in use. The CB Nanotool, used internationally, was developed to conduct qualitative risk assessments to control nanoparticle exposures. Nanotoxicology experts have requested standardization of toxicological parameters to ensure better utility and consistency of research. Such standardization would fit well in the CB Nanotool's severity and probability risk matrix, therefore enhancing the protection of nanotechnology industry workers. This article further evaluates the CB Nanotool for structure, weighting of risk factors, and utility for exposure mitigation, and suggests improvements for the CB Nanotool and the research needed to bolster its effectiveness.

  4. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    SciTech Connect

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  5. Can Mitochondria DNA Provide a Novel Biomarker for Evaluating the Risk and Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer?

    PubMed Central

    Shuwen, Han; Xi, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) was one of the most frequent cancers worldwide. Accurate risk and prognosis evaluation could obtain better quality of life and longer survival time for the patients. Current research hotspot was focus on the gene biomarker to evaluate the risk and prognosis. Mitochondrion contains its own DNA and regulates self-replicating so that it can be as a candidate biomarker for evaluating the risk and prognosis of colorectal cancer. But there were already huge controversies on this issue. The review was to summarize current viewpoints of the controversial issues and described our understanding from the four aspects including mtDNA copy number, mitochondrial displacement loop, mtDNA variation, and mtDNA microsatellite instability, wishing the summary of the mtDNA in colorectal cancer could provide a meaningful reference or a valuable direction in the future studies.

  6. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  7. Evaluation of digital dermoscopy in a pigmented lesion clinic: clinician versus computer assessment of malignancy risk.

    PubMed

    Boldrick, Jennifer C; Layton, Christle J; Nguyen, Josephine; Swetter, Susan M

    2007-03-01

    Digital dermoscopy systems employ computer-based algorithms to quantitate features of pigmented skin lesions (PSLs) and provide an assessment of malignancy risk. We evaluated interobserver concordance of PSL malignancy risk between a pigmented lesion specialist and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based automated digital dermoscopy system. While digital dermoscopy provides a reliable means of image capture, storage, and comparison of PSLs over time, the ANN algorithm requires further training and validation before the malignancy risk assessment feature can be widely used in clinical practice.

  8. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  9. Evaluation of Head and Brain Injury Risk Functions using Sub-Injurious Human Volunteer Data.

    PubMed

    Sanchez, Erin J; Gabler, Lee F; McGhee, James S; Olszko, Ardyn V; Chancey, Valeta Carol; Crandall, Jeff; Panzer, Matthew B

    2017-03-30

    Risk assessment models are developed to estimate the probability of brain injury during head impact using mechanical response variables such as head kinematics and brain tissue deformation. Existing injury risk functions have been developed using different datasets based on human volunteer and scaled animal injury responses to impact. However, many of these functions have not been independently evaluated with respect to laboratory-controlled human response data. In this study, the specificity of fourteen existing brain injury risk functions was assessed by evaluating their ability to correctly predict non-injurious response using previously conducted sled tests with well-instrumented human research volunteers. Six degree-of-freedom head kinematics data were obtained for 335 sled tests involving subjects in frontal, lateral, and oblique sled conditions up to 16 Gs peak sled acceleration. A review of the medical reports associated with each individual test indicated no clinical diagnosis of mild or moderate brain injury in any of the cases evaluated. Kinematic-based head and brain injury risk probabilities were calculated directly from the kinematic data, while strain-based risks were determined through finite element model simulation of the 335 tests. Several injury risk functions sub¬stanti¬ally over pre¬dict the likelihood of concussion and diffuse axonal injury; proposed maximum principal strain (MPS)-based injury risk functions predicted nearly 80 concussions and 14 cases of severe diffuse axonal injury out of the 335 non-injurious cases. This work is an important first step in assessing the efficacy of existing brain risk functions and highlights the need for more predictive injury assessment models.

  10. DE-CERTS: A Decision Support System for a Comparative Evaluation Method for Risk Management Methodologies and Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Patton , Michael Quinn . Qualitative Evaluation Methods . Sage, 1980. Pfleeger, Charles P...the research and indicates directions for further research . 6 II. CERTS: A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION METHOD FOR RISK MANAGDENT METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS A...A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION METHOD FOR RISK MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS by Leonard A. Crump Jr. and James G.

  11. Evaluation of the predictability of real-time crash risk models.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei

    2016-09-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the predictability of crash risk models that were developed using high-resolution real-time traffic data. More specifically the present study sought answers to the following questions: (a) how to evaluate the predictability of a real-time crash risk model; and (b) how to improve the predictability of a real-time crash risk model. The predictability is defined as the crash probability given the crash precursor identified by the crash risk model. An equation was derived based on the Bayes' theorem for estimating approximately the predictability of crash risk models. The estimated predictability was then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the threshold of crash precursors, the matched and unmatched case-control design, and the control-to-case ratio on the predictability of crash risk models. It was found that: (a) the predictability of a crash risk model can be measured as the product of prior crash probability and the ratio between sensitivity and false alarm rate; (b) there is a trade-off between the predictability and sensitivity of a real-time crash risk model; (c) for a given level of sensitivity, the predictability of the crash risk model that is developed using the unmatched case-controlled sample is always better than that of the model developed using the matched case-controlled sample; and (d) when the control-to-case ratio is beyond 4:1, the increase in control-to-case ratio does not lead to clear improvements in predictability.

  12. The TEAM evaluation approach to Project FAMUS, a pan-Canadian risk register for primary care.

    PubMed Central

    Grant, A.; Lussier, Y.; Delisle, E.; Dubois, S.; Bernier, R.

    1992-01-01

    The application of the TEAM--Total Evaluation and Acceptance Methodology--to the development of Project FAMUS--Family Medicine, University of Sherbrooke--is described. Project FAMUS is concerned with the establishment of a pan-Canadian risk register, the data being provided from a network of 800 family physicians distributed across Canada. Emphasis is on the first phase of the project and the overall evaluation strategy. PMID:1482968

  13. User Perceptions and Reactions to an Online Cancer Risk Assessment Tool: a Process Evaluation of Cancer Risk Check.

    PubMed

    Hovick, Shelly R; Bevers, Therese B; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Kim, Stephanie; Dailey, Phokeng M; Jones, Lovell A; Peterson, Susan K

    2017-03-01

    Online cancer risk assessment tools, which provide personalized cancer information and recommendations based on personal data input by users, are a promising cancer education approach; however, few tools have been evaluated. A randomized controlled study was conducted to compare user impressions of one tool, Cancer Risk Check (CRC), to non-personalized educational information delivered online as series of self-advancing slides (the control). CRC users (N = 1452) rated the tool to be as interesting as the control (p > .05), but users were more likely to report that the information was difficult to understand and not applicable to them (p < .05). Information seeking and sharing also were lower among CRC users; thus, although impressions of CRC were favorable, it was not shown to be superior to existing approaches. We hypothesized CRC was less effective because it contained few visual and graphical elements; therefore, CRC was compared to a text-based control (online PDF file) post hoc. CRC users rated the information to be more interesting, less difficult to understand, and better able to hold their attention (p < .05). Post hoc results suggest the visual presentation of risk is critical to tool success.

  14. Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

    PubMed Central

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

  15. Evaluation of functional deficits and falls risk in the elderly--methods for preventing falls.

    PubMed

    Narayanan, Michael R; Scalzi, Maria Elena; Redmond, Stephen J; Lord, Steven R; Celler, Branko G; Lovell, Nigel H

    2009-01-01

    Falls in the elderly have a profound impact on their quality of life through injury, increased fear of falling, reduced confidence to perform daily tasks and loss of independence. Falls come at a substantial economic cost. Tools to quantify falls risk and evaluate functional deficits allow interventions to be targeted to those at increased risk of falling and tailored to correct deficits with the aim of reducing falls rate and reducing ones risk of falling. We describe a system to evaluate falls risk and functional deficits in the elderly. The system is based on the evaluation of performance in a simple set of controlled movements known as the directed routine (DR). We present preliminary results of the DR in a cohort of 68 subjects using features extracted from the DR. Linear least-squares models were trained to estimate falls risk, knee-extension strength, proprioception, mediolateral body sway, anteroposterior body sway and contrast sensitivity. The model estimates provided good to fair correlations with (r=0.76 p<0.001), (r=0.65 p<0.001), (r=0.35 p<0.01), (r=0.53 p<0.001), (r=0.48 p<0.001) and (r=0.37 p<0.01) respectively.

  16. Risk-based evaluation of total petroleum hydrocarbons in vapor intrusion studies.

    PubMed

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-06-13

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum.

  17. Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2012-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

  18. Environmental risks in the developing world: exposure indicators for evaluating interventions, programmes, and policies

    PubMed Central

    Ezzati, M.; Utzinger, J.; Cairncross, S.; Cohen, A.; Singer, B.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Monitoring and empirical evaluation are essential components of evidence based public health policies and programmes. Consequently, there is a growing interest in monitoring of, and indicators for, major environmental health risks, particularly in the developing world. Current large scale data collection efforts are generally disconnected from micro-scale studies in health sciences, which in turn have insufficiently investigated the behavioural and socioeconomic factors that influence exposure. Study design: A basic framework is proposed for development of indicators of exposure to environmental health risks that would facilitate the (a) assessment of the health effects of risk factors, (b) design and evaluation of interventions and programmes to deliver the interventions, and (c) appraisal and quantification of inequalities in health effects of risk factors, and benefits of intervention programmes and policies. Specific emphasis is put on the features of environmental risks that should guide the choice of indicators, in particular the interactions of technology, the environment, and human behaviour in determining exposure. The indicators are divided into four categories: (a) access and infrastructure, (b) technology, (c) agents and vectors, and (d) behaviour. The study used water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from solid fuels, urban ambient air pollution, and malaria as illustrative examples for this framework. Conclusions: Organised and systematic indicator selection and monitoring can provide an evidence base for design and implementation of more effective and equitable technological interventions, delivery programmes, and policies for environmental health risks in resource poor settings. PMID:15598721

  19. Evaluation of vegetable production management practices to reduce the ecological risk of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Rice, Pamela J; Hapeman, Cathleen J; McConnell, Laura L; Sadeghi, Ali M; Teasdale, John R; Coffman, C Benjamin; McCarty, Gregory W; Abdul-Baki, Aref A; Starr, James L

    2007-11-01

    The ability of agricultural management practices to reduce the ecological risks of pesticides was evaluated. Risk quotients, a mathematical description of the relationship between exposure and toxicity, and hazard ratings, a rank of the potential risk of pesticides to aquatic environments, were calculated for conventional and alternative cultivation practices for tomatoes: Poly-Bare, raised beds covered with polyethylene mulch with bare-soil furrows; Poly-Rye, raised beds covered with polyethylene mulch with cereal rye (Secale cereale) grown in the furrows; and Vetch, raised beds and furrows planted with hairy vetch seed (Vicia villosa). Evaluations were conducted using measured pesticide concentrations in runoff at the edge-of-field and estimated environmental concentrations in an adjacent creek and a theoretical pond receiving the runoff. Runoff from Poly-Bare presented the greatest risk to ecosystem health and to sensitive organisms, whereas the use of Vetch minimized these risks. Previous studies have shown that harvest yields were maintained and that runoff volume, soil loss, and off-site transport of pesticides measured in runoff were reduced using the alternative management practices (Poly-Rye and Vetch). Together, these results indicate that the alternative management practices (Poly-Rye and Vetch) have a less adverse impact on the environment than the conventional management practice (Poly-Bare) while providing growers with an acceptable economic return. In addition, the present study demonstrates the need to consider the management practice when assessing the potential risks and hazards for certain pesticides.

  20. Risk Stratification for Athletes and Adventurers in High-Altitude Environments: Recommendations for Preparticipation Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Aaron D; McIntosh, Scott E; Nyberg, Andy; Powell, Amy P; Schoene, Robert B; Hackett, Peter

    2015-12-01

    High-altitude athletes and adventurers face a number of environmental and medical risks. Clinicians often advise participants or guiding agencies before or during these experiences. Preparticipation evaluation (PPE) has the potential to reduce risk of high-altitude illnesses in athletes and adventurers. Specific conditions susceptible to high-altitude exacerbation also important to evaluate include cardiovascular and lung diseases. Recommendations by which to counsel individuals before participation in altitude sports and adventures are few and of limited focus. We reviewed the literature, collected expert opinion, and augmented principles of a traditional sport PPE to accommodate the high-altitude wilderness athlete/adventurer. We present our findings with specific recommendations on risk stratification during a PPE for the high-altitude athlete/adventurer.

  1. Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

  2. Evaluating the Framingham hypertension risk prediction model in young adults: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

    PubMed

    Carson, April P; Lewis, Cora E; Jacobs, David R; Peralta, Carmen A; Steffen, Lyn M; Bower, Julie K; Person, Sharina D; Muntner, Paul

    2013-12-01

    A prediction model was developed in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to evaluate the short-term risk of hypertension. Our goal was to determine the predictive ability of the FHS hypertension model in a cohort of young adults advancing into middle age and compare it with the predictive ability of prehypertension and individual components of the FHS model. We studied 4388 participants, aged 18 to 30 years without hypertension at baseline, enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, who participated in 2 consecutive examinations occurring 5 years apart between the baseline (1985-1986) and year 25 examination (2010-2011). Weibull regression was used to assess the association of the FHS model overall, individual components of the FHS model, and prehypertension with incident hypertension. During the 25-year follow-up period, 1179 participants developed incident hypertension. The FHS hypertension model (c-index=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.85) performed well in discriminating those who did and did not develop hypertension and was better than prehypertension alone (c-index=0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73). The predicted risk from the FHS hypertension model was systematically lower than the observed hypertension incidence initially (χ(2)=249.4; P<0.001) but demonstrated a good fit after recalibration (χ(2)=14.6; P=0.067). In summary, the FHS model performed better than prehypertension and may be a useful tool for identifying young adults with a high risk for developing hypertension.

  3. Evaluation of a Training Program for Street Children and Adolescents At Risk in Brazil.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandeira, Denise R.; And Others

    An experience in evaluating a program which is designed to help high risk adolescents is described. The program attempts to develop basic work and social skills of adolescents (N=40) living in slums or on the streets in Brazil. Psychological and social effects of the program were assessed by means of interviews and psychological tests…

  4. 76 FR 36544 - Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications; Public Workshop; Request for...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-22

    ... produced by the consumption of that tobacco product, that may affect a disease or health-related condition... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product... of public workshop; request for comments. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for...

  5. Evaluation of a Ropes Course Experience for At-Risk Secondary School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conley, Laura; Caldarella, Paul; Young, Ellie

    2007-01-01

    This study evaluated the effects of a one-day ropes course on students' classroom involvement and affiliation. Middle and junior high school students who participated in the ropes course were from classes designed for students at risk for emotional and behavioral disorders. Using the Classroom Environment Scale (CES) Short Form, students evaluated…

  6. FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR USE IN SAFETY OR RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT

    Proposed applications of increasingly sophisticated biologically-based computational models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, raise the issue of how to evaluate whether the models are adequate for proposed uses including safety or risk ...

  7. Some Methodological Problems, Solutions and Findings from Evaluating Risk Reduction Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Harris K.; Di Nitto, Diana

    1982-01-01

    Reports three methodological problems found in evaluating five risk reduction projects in Florida. Found that activities aimed at producing positive self-awareness and exposure to rewarding nondrug activities taught with a mixture of didactic and discussion methods and exercises are best. (Author/JAC)

  8. Evaluation of an Alcohol Risk Reduction Program (PRIME for Life) in Young Swedish Military Conscripts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallgren, Mats A.; Kallmen, Hakan; Leifman, Hakan; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Andreasson, Sven

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the PRIME for Life risk reduction program in reducing alcohol consumption and improving knowledge and attitudes towards alcohol use in male Swedish military conscripts, aged 18 to 22 years. Design/methodology/approach: A quasi-experimental design was used in which 1,371…

  9. Neurophysiologic Evaluation of Early Cognitive Development in High-Risk Infants and Toddlers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    deRegnier, Raye-Ann

    2005-01-01

    New knowledge of the perceptual, discriminative, and memory capabilities of very young infants has opened the door to further evaluation of these abilities in infants who have risk factors for cognitive impairments. A neurophysiologic technique that has been very useful in this regard is the recording of event-related potentials (ERPs). The…

  10. Evaluation of the "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-Graders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liller, Karen D.; Perrin, Karen; Nearns, Jodi; Pesce, Karen; Crane, Nancy B.; Gonzalez, Robin R.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the MORE HEALTH "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-graders in Pinellas County, Florida. Six schools representative of various socioeconomic levels were selected as the test sites. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected. A total of 433 matched pretests/posttests were used…

  11. A Formative Evaluation of the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk Coaching Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olson, Jonathan R.; Smith, Burgess; Hawkey, Kyle R.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Borden, Lynne M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we describe the results of a formative evaluation of a coaching model designed to support recipients of funding through the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) initiative. Results indicate that CYFAR coaches draw from a variety of types of coaching and that CYFAR principle investigators (PIs) are generally satisfied with…

  12. Discomfort Intolerance: Evaluation of a Potential Risk Factor for Anxiety Psychopathology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Norman B.; Richey, J. Anthony; Cromer, Kiara R.; Buckner, Julia D.

    2007-01-01

    Discomfort intolerance, defined as an individual difference in the capacity to tolerate unpleasant bodily sensations, is a construct recently posited as a risk factor for panic and anxiety psychopathology. The present report used a biological challenge procedure to evaluate whether discomfort intolerance predicts fearful responding beyond the…

  13. Serving the Needs of At-Risk Refugee Youth: A Program Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBrien, J. Lynn

    2006-01-01

    Refugee students, although frequently subsumed under the "immigrant" heading, often suffer from effects of significant trauma that can make them more vulnerable than children of voluntary immigrant families. This study evaluated a program created specifically for refugee youth at-risk for academic failure and "social death." The program goals…

  14. 75 FR 76995 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-10

    ... Reproduction (CERHR); NTP Workshop: Role of Environmental Chemicals in the Development of Diabetes and Obesity... established the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) in 1998 (63 FR 68782) to... (collectively referred to as ``substances'') cause adverse effects on reproduction and development and...

  15. 75 FR 2545 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-15

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES National Institutes of Health National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR); Availability of the Final Expert Panel Report on...

  16. Program Evaluation of Growin' to Win: A Latchkey and Summer Program for At-Risk Youth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, William H.; And Others

    This document presents an evaluation of the effectiveness of the Growin' to Win Project, an after-school and summer program targeted at elementary and middle school aged youth at high risk of substance abuse and gang involvement. Growin' to Win is an expansion of a model latchkey program piloted at two Tacoma (Washington) schools in 1990. The…

  17. Evaluating Immunogenicity Risk Due to Host Cell Protein Impurities in Antibody-Based Biotherapeutics.

    PubMed

    Jawa, Vibha; Joubert, Marisa K; Zhang, Qingchun; Deshpande, Meghana; Hapuarachchi, Suminda; Hall, Michael P; Flynn, Gregory C

    2016-11-01

    A potential risk factor for immunogenicity of a biotherapeutic is the low levels of host cell protein (HCP) impurities that remain in the product following the purification process. During process development, significant attention has been devoted to removing HCPs due to their potential safety risk. Samples from different purification steps of several monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) purified by one type of platform were evaluated for their residual Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell-derived HCP content. HCPs in both in-process (high levels of HCP) and highly purified (low levels of HCP) samples were identified and quantitated by proteomic analysis via mass spectrometry. The responses to HCPs were evaluated in an in vitro assay using PBMC from a population of healthy and disease state individuals. Results indicated that samples with up to 4000 ppm HCP content (levels 200 times greater than the drug substance) did not pose a higher immunogenicity risk than highly purified mAb samples. As an orthogonal method to predict immunogenicity risk, in silico algorithms that probe amino acid sequence for foreign epitope content were used to evaluate over 20 common HCPs (identified in the different mAb samples). Only a few HCPs were identified as high risk by the algorithms; however, the in vitro assay results indicated that the concentration of these HCPs from in-process biotherapeutic mAb samples was not sufficient to stimulate an immune response. This suggests that high levels of HCP in mAb biotherapeutics purified by this type of platform do not increase the potential risk of immunogenicity of these molecules. Insights from these studies can be applied to HCP control and risk assessment strategies.

  18. Evaluation of index-overlay methods for groundwater vulnerability and risk assessment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.

    PubMed

    Shrestha, Sangam; Kafle, Ranjana; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed at evaluating three index-overlay methods of vulnerability assessment (i.e., DRASTIC, GOD, and SI) for estimating risk to pollution of shallow groundwater aquifer in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM) model was used to compute the risk to groundwater pollution. Results showed that DRASTIC and SI methods are comparable for vulnerability assessment as both methods delineate around 80% of the groundwater basin area under high vulnerable zone. From the perspective of risk to pollution results, DRASTIC and GOD methods are comparable. Nevertheless, all the three methods estimate that at least 60% of the groundwater basin is under moderate risk to NO3-N pollution, which goes up to 75% if DRASTIC or GOD-based vulnerabilities are considered as exposure pathways. Finally, based on strength and significance of correlation between the estimated risk and observed NO3-N concentrations, it was found that SI method is a better-suited one to assess the vulnerability and risk to groundwater pollution in the study area. Findings from this study are useful to design strategies and actions aimed to prevent nitrate pollution in groundwater of Kathmandu Valley in Nepal.

  19. Considerations in the evaluation and determination of minimal risk in pragmatic clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Lantos, John D; Wendler, David; Septimus, Edward; Wahba, Sarita; Madigan, Rosemary; Bliss, Geraldine

    2015-10-01

    Institutional review boards, which are charged with overseeing research, must classify the riskiness of proposed research according to a federal regulation known as the Common Rule (45 CFR 46, Subpart A) and by regulations governing the US Food and Drug Administration codified in 21 CFR 50. If an institutional review board determines that a clinical trial constitutes "minimal risk," there are important practical implications: the institutional review board may then allow a waiver or alteration of the informed consent process; the study may be carried out in certain vulnerable populations; or the study may be reviewed by institutional review boards using an expedited process. However, it is unclear how institutional review boards should assess the risk levels of pragmatic clinical trials. Such trials typically compare existing, widely used medical therapies or interventions in the setting of routine clinical practice. Some of the therapies may be considered risky of themselves but the study comparing them may or may not add to that pre-existing level of risk. In this article, we examine the common interpretations of research regulations regarding minimal-risk classifications and suggest that they are marked by a high degree of variability and confusion, which in turn may ultimately harm patients by delaying or hindering potentially beneficial research. We advocate for a clear differentiation between the risks associated with a given therapy and the incremental risk incurred during research evaluating those therapies as a basic principle for evaluating the risk of a pragmatic clinical trial. We then examine two pragmatic clinical trials and consider how various factors including clinical equipoise, practice variation, research methods such as cluster randomization, and patients' perspectives may contribute to current and evolving concepts of minimal-risk determinations, and how this understanding in turn affects the design and conduct of pragmatic clinical trials.

  20. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change.

  1. Identification by ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries of high-risk subjects missed by three validated cardiovascular disease risk algorithms.

    PubMed

    Postley, John E; Luo, Yanting; Wong, Nathan D; Gardin, Julius M

    2015-11-15

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events are the leading cause of death in the United States and globally. Traditional global risk algorithms may miss 50% of patients who experience ASCVD events. Noninvasive ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at high risk for ASCVD events. We examined the ability of different global risk algorithms to identify subjects with femoral and/or carotid plaques found by ultrasound. The study population consisted of 1,464 asymptomatic adults (39.8% women) aged 23 to 87 years without previous evidence of ASCVD who had ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries. Three ASCVD risk algorithms (10-year Framingham Risk Score [FRS], 30-year FRS, and lifetime risk) were compared for the 939 subjects who met the algorithm age criteria. The frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque was 18.3% in the total group and 14.8% in the risk algorithm groups (n = 939) without a significant difference between genders in frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque. Those identified as high risk by the lifetime risk algorithm included the most men and women who had plaques either femoral or carotid (59% and 55%) but had lower specificity because the proportion of subjects who actually had plaques in the high-risk group was lower (50% and 35%) than in those at high risk defined by the FRS algorithms. In conclusion, ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at risk of ASCVD events missed by traditional risk-predicting algorithms. The large proportion of subjects with femoral plaque only supports the use of including both femoral and carotid arteries in ultrasound evaluation.

  2. Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

    PubMed

    Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

    2017-04-15

    This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other.

  3. Reduced aspirin responsiveness as assessed by impedance aggregometry is not associated with adverse outcome after cardiac surgery in a small low-risk cohort.

    PubMed

    Bolliger, Daniel; Filipovic, Miodrag; Matt, Peter; Tanaka, Kenichi A; Gregor, Michael; Zenklusen, Urs; Seeberger, Manfred D; Lurati Buse, Giovanna

    2016-01-01

    Reduced aspirin responsiveness (i.e. persistent high platelet reactivity in platelet function testing) might be associated with increased risk of myocardial ischemia and cardiac mortality in patients with coronary disease. However, the impact in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is unclear. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate the predictive value of reduced aspirin responsiveness on cardiac and thromboembolic events in patients undergoing elective isolated CABG surgery with aspirin intake until at least two days before surgery. We included 304 patients in this prospective single-center cohort study. Impedance platelet aggregometry (Multiplate®) was performed directly before and on the first day after surgery. Reduced aspirin responsiveness was defined as area under the curve in ASPItest (AUCASPI) ≥300 U. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and/or major adverse cardiac or thromboembolic events within 1 year. Reduced aspirin responsiveness was found in 13 and 24% of patients pre and postoperatively, respectively. There was no difference in the outcomes between patients with normal and reduced aspirin responsiveness in the preoperative measurement (log-rank test, p = 0.540). Multivariate analysis including logistic EuroSCORE I and postoperative troponin T levels did not show any association of reduced aspirin responsiveness with adverse outcome (hazard ratio, 0.576; (95% CI 0.128-2.585; p = 0.471). Similarly, postoperative reduced aspirin responsiveness was not associated with adverse events. To conclude, reduced aspirin responsiveness as evaluated by Multiplate® platelet function analyzer was not associated with increased incidence of major adverse cardiac and thromboembolic events and mortality after CABG surgery.

  4. Evaluation of Major Online Diabetes Risk Calculators and Computerized Predictive Models

    PubMed Central

    Stiglic, Gregor; Pajnkihar, Majda

    2015-01-01

    Classical paper-and-pencil based risk assessment questionnaires are often accompanied by the online versions of the questionnaire to reach a wider population. This study focuses on the loss, especially in risk estimation performance, that can be inflicted by direct transformation from the paper to online versions of risk estimation calculators by ignoring the possibilities of more complex and accurate calculations that can be performed using the online calculators. We empirically compare the risk estimation performance between four major diabetes risk calculators and two, more advanced, predictive models. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999–2012 was used to evaluate the performance of detecting diabetes and pre-diabetes. American Diabetes Association risk test achieved the best predictive performance in category of classical paper-and-pencil based tests with an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.699 for undiagnosed diabetes (0.662 for pre-diabetes) and 47% (47% for pre-diabetes) persons selected for screening. Our results demonstrate a significant difference in performance with additional benefits for a lower number of persons selected for screening when statistical methods are used. The best AUC overall was obtained in diabetes risk prediction using logistic regression with AUC of 0.775 (0.734) and an average 34% (48%) persons selected for screening. However, generalized boosted regression models might be a better option from the economical point of view as the number of selected persons for screening of 30% (47%) lies significantly lower for diabetes risk assessment in comparison to logistic regression (p < 0.001), with a significantly higher AUC (p < 0.001) of 0.774 (0.740) for the pre-diabetes group. Our results demonstrate a serious lack of predictive performance in four major online diabetes risk calculators. Therefore, one should take great care and consider optimizing the online versions of questionnaires that were

  5. Ethnic Background and Genetic Variation in the Evaluation of Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Jing, Lijun; Su, Li; Ring, Brian Z.

    2014-01-01

    The clinical use of genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk is expanding, and thus understanding how determinants of cancer susceptibility identified in one population can be applied to another is of growing importance. However there is considerable debate on the relevance of ethnic background in clinical genetics, reflecting both the significance and complexity of genetic heritage. We address this via a systematic review of reported associations with cancer risk for 82 markers in 68 studies across six different cancer types, comparing association results between ethnic groups and examining linkage disequilibrium between risk alleles and nearby genetic loci. We find that the relevance of ethnic background depends on the question. If asked whether the association of variants with disease risk is conserved across ethnic boundaries, we find that the answer is yes, the majority of markers show insignificant variability in association with cancer risk across ethnic groups. However if the question is whether a significant association between a variant and cancer risk is likely to reproduce, the answer is no, most markers do not validate in an ethnic group other than the discovery cohort’s ancestry. This lack of reproducibility is not attributable to studies being inadequately populated due to low allele frequency in other ethnic groups. Instead, differences in local genomic structure between ethnic groups are associated with the strength of association with cancer risk and therefore confound interpretation of the implied physiologic association tracked by the disease allele. This suggest that a biological association for cancer risk alleles may be broadly consistent across ethnic boundaries, but reproduction of a clinical study in another ethnic group is uncommon, in part due to confounding genomic architecture. As clinical studies are increasingly performed globally this has important implications for how cancer risk stratifiers should be studied and

  6. Cancer risk evaluation of brick kiln workers exposed to dust bound PAHs in Punjab province (Pakistan).

    PubMed

    Kamal, Atif; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Martellini, Tania; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2014-09-15

    Principal objective of this study was to evaluate the health risks of brick kiln workers to dust bound PAHs exposure in Punjab province (Pakistan). To this aim, surface dust samples were collected from brick kiln units located in Chung Khurd (Lahore city), Gujranwala city and Sohra village (in the vicinity of Gujranwala). The highest ΣPAH levels were measured in the dust samples collected in Sohdra village (mean 2578 ng g(-1) d.w., range 302-6757 ng g(-1) d.w.) followed by Gujranwala city (mean 957, range 16.1-1963 ng g(-1) d.w.) and Chung Khurd (mean 882, range 692-1007 ng g(-1) d.w.). Source identification using diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis identified coal and wood combustion as the major PAHs sources. The cancer risk model (CR-Model 1) and the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk model (ILCR-Model 2) were used to evaluate the cancer risk assessment via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways. Both models suggested that brick kiln workers (including adults and children) were exposed to high-potential carcinogenic risk via both ingestion and dermal contact pathways during the brick making process. This study also emphasizes the need for pollution control in the brick kiln industry of Pakistan.

  7. Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

    PubMed Central

    Andersson, Neil; Mitchell, Steven

    2006-01-01

    Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0), through risk analysis (levels 1–3) to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4). Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity. PMID:16390549

  8. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination: a multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach based on DRASTIC model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiuwen; Yang, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information.

  9. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  10. Determining Risk - How to Evaluate the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.

    2011-12-01

    As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high

  11. Developing a multi-component immune model for evaluating the risk of respiratory illness in athletes.

    PubMed

    Gleeson, Maree; Pyne, David B; Elkington, Lisa J; Hall, Sharron T; Attia, John R; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Wood, Lisa G; Callister, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Clinical and laboratory identification of the underlying risk of respiratory illness in athletes has proved problematic. The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical data, combined with immune responses to standardised exercise protocols and genetic cytokine polymorphism status, could identify the risk of respiratory illness (symptoms) in a cohort of highly-trained athletes. Male endurance athletes (n=16; VO2max 66.5 ± 5.1 mL.kg-1.min-1) underwent a clinical evaluation of known risk factors by a physician and comprehensive laboratory analysis of immune responses both at rest and after two cycling ergometer tests: 60 min at 65% VO2max (LONG); and 6 x 3 min intervals at 90% VO2max (INTENSE). Blood tests were performed to determine Epstein Barr virus (EBV) status and DNA was genotyped for a panel of cytokine gene polymorphisms. Saliva was collected for measurement of IgA and detection of EBV DNA. Athletes were then followed for 9 months for self-reported episodes of respiratory illness, with confirmation of the underlying cause by a sports physician. There were no associations with risk of respiratory illness identified for any parameter assessed in the clinical evaluations. The laboratory parameters associated with an increased risk of respiratory illnesses in highly-trained athletes were cytokine gene polymorphisms for the high expression of IL-6 and IFN-ɣ; expression of EBV-DNA in saliva; and low levels of salivary IgA concentration. A genetic risk score was developed for the cumulative number of minor alleles for the cytokines evaluated. Athletes prone to recurrent respiratory illness were more likely to have immune disturbances that allow viral reactivation, and a genetic predisposition to pro-inflammatory cytokine responses to intense exercise.

  12. Risk and information evaluation of prioritized genes for complex traits: application to bipolar disorder.

    PubMed

    Kao, Chung-Feng; Chuang, Li-Chung; Kuo, Po-Hsiu

    2014-10-01

    Many susceptibility genes for complex traits were identified without conclusive findings. There is a strong need to integrate rapidly accumulated genomic data from multi-dimensional platforms, and to conduct risk evaluation for potential therapeutic and diagnostic usages. We set up an algorithm to computationally search for optimal weight-vector for various data sources, while minimized potential noises. Through gene-prioritization framework, combined scores for the resulting prioritized gene-set were calculated using a genome-wide association (GWA) dataset, following with evaluation using weighted genetic risk score and risk-attributed information using an independent GWA dataset. The significance of association of GWA data was corrected for gene length. Enriched functional pathways were identified for the prioritized gene-set using the Gene Ontology analysis. We illustrated our framework with bipolar disorder. 233 prioritized genes were identified from 10,830 candidates that curated from six platforms. The prioritized genes were significantly enriched (P(adjusted) < 1 × 10(-5)) in 18 biological functions and molecular mechanisms including membrane, synaptic transmission, transmission of nerve impulse, integral to membrane, and plasma membrane. Our risk evaluation demonstrated higher weighted genetic risk score in bipolar patients than controls (P-values ranged from 0.002 to 3.8 × 10(-6)). Substantial risk-information (71%) was extracted from prioritized genes for bipolar illness than other candidate-gene sets. Our evidence-based prioritized gene-set provides opportunity to explore the complex network and to conduct follow-up basic and clinical studies for complex traits.

  13. Evaluation of "at risk" alpha 1-antitrypsin genotype SZ with synthetic oligonucleotide gene probes.

    PubMed Central

    Nukiwa, T; Brantly, M; Garver, R; Paul, L; Courtney, M; LeCocq, J P; Crystal, R G

    1986-01-01

    Alpha 1-antitrypsin (alpha 1AT), a 52,000-mol-wt serum glycoprotein produced by hepatocytes and mononuclear phagocytes, functions as the major inhibitor of neutrophil elastase. The alpha 1AT haplotype S is associated with childhood liver disease and/or adult emphysema when inherited with the Z haplotype to give the phenotype SZ. To accurately identify the SZ phenotype at the level of genomic DNA, four 32P-labeled 19-mer synthetic oligonucleotide probes were prepared; two to identify the M and S difference in exon III, and two to identify the M and Z difference in exon V. These probes were hybridized with various cloned DNAs and genomic DNAs cut with the restriction endonucleases BgII and EcoRI; the genomic DNAs represented all six possible phenotype combinations of the M, S, and Z haplotypes (MM, MS, MZ, SS, ZZ, and SZ). Using the four probes to evaluate 42 samples of genomic DNA, the "at risk" SZ and ZZ phenotypes were correctly identified in all cases, as were the "not at risk" phenotypes SS, MS, MM, and MZ, demonstrating that both exon III and exon V directed probes are necessary to properly identify all of the major "at risk" alpha 1AT genes. However, when used to evaluate a very rare family carrying a null allele, these four oligonucleotide probes misidentified the "at risk" null-null and S null phenotypes as "not at risk" MM and SM combinations. These observations indicate that oligonucleotide gene probes yielded reliable and accurate assessment of "at risk" alpha 1AT genotypes in almost all situations, but in the context of prenatal diagnosis and genetic counseling this approach must be used with caution and in combination with family studies so as not to misidentify rare genotypes that may be associated with a risk for disease. Images PMID:3484754

  14. Developing and evaluating an automated appendicitis risk stratification algorithm for pediatric patients in the emergency department

    PubMed Central

    Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre

    2013-01-01

    Objective To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). Methods We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. Results The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Conclusions Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care. PMID:24130231

  15. Evaluating the Risks of High Altitude Travel in Chronic Liver Disease Patients.

    PubMed

    Luks, Andrew M; Swenson, Erik R

    2015-06-01

    Luks, Andrew M., and Erik R. Swenson. Clinician's Corner: Evaluating the risks of high altitude travel in chronic liver disease patients. High Alt Med Biol 16:80-88, 2015.--With improvements in the quality of health care, people with chronic medical conditions are experiencing better quality of life and increasingly participating in a wider array of activities, including travel to high altitude. Whenever people with chronic diseases travel to this environment, it is important to consider whether the physiologic responses to hypobaric hypoxia will interact with the underlying medical condition such that the risk of acute altitude illness is increased or the medical condition itself may worsen. This review considers these questions as they pertain to patients with chronic liver disease. While the limited available evidence suggests there is no evidence of liver injury or dysfunction in normal individuals traveling as high as 5000 m, there is reason to suspect that two groups of cirrhosis patients are at increased risk for problems, hepatopulmonary syndrome patients, who are at risk for severe hypoxemia following ascent, and portopulmonary hypertension patients who may be at risk for high altitude pulmonary edema and acute right ventricular dysfunction. While liver transplant patients may tolerate high altitude exposure without difficulty, no information is available regarding the risks of long-term residence at altitude with chronic liver disease. All travelers with cirrhosis require careful pre-travel evaluation to identify conditions that might predispose to problems at altitude and develop risk mitigation strategies for these issues. Patients also require detailed counseling about recognition, prevention, and treatment of acute altitude illness and may require different medication regimens to prevent or treat altitude illness than used in healthy individuals.

  16. Evaluation of the pressure ulcers risk scales with critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study 1

    PubMed Central

    Borghardt, Andressa Tomazini; do Prado, Thiago Nascimento; de Araújo, Thiago Moura; Rogenski, Noemi Marisa Brunet; Bringuente, Maria Edla de Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: to evaluate the accuracy of the Braden and Waterlow risk assessment scales in critically ill inpatients. METHOD: this prospective cohort study, with 55 patients in intensive care units, was performed through evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical variables, through the application of the scales (Braden and Waterlow) upon admission and every 48 hours; and through the evaluation and classification of the ulcers into categories. RESULTS: the pressure ulcer incidence was 30.9%, with the Braden and Waterlow scales presenting high sensitivity (41% and 71%) and low specificity (21% and 47%) respectively in the three evaluations. The cut off scores found in the first, second and third evaluations were 12, 12 and 11 in the Braden scale, and 16, 15 and 14 in the Waterlow scale. CONCLUSION: the Braden scale was shown to be a good screening instrument, and the Waterlow scale proved to have better predictive power. PMID:25806628

  17. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  18. Evaluation of dysphagia risk, nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly patients with Alzheimer's

    PubMed Central

    Goes, Vanessa Fernanda; Mello-Carpes, Pâmela Billig; de Oliveira, Lilian Oliveira; Hack, Jaqueline; Magro, Marcela; Bonini, Juliana Sartori

    2014-01-01

    Objective to evaluate the risk of dysphagia and its relationship with the stage of Alzheimer's Disease, as well as the relationship between the risk of dysphagia and nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly people with Alzheimer's disease. Methods the sample consisted of 30 subjects of both genders with probable Alzheimer's disease. The stage of the disease, nutritional status, energy intake, and risk of dysphagia were assessed. Results it was found that increased risk of dysphagia is associated with the advance in the stages of Alzheimer's disease and that even patients in the early stages of disease have a slight risk of developing dysphagia. No association was found between nutritional status and the risk of dysphagia. High levels of inadequate intake of micronutrients were also verified in the patients. Conclusion an association between dysphagia and the development of Alzheimer's disease was found. The results indicate the need to monitor the presence of dysphagia and the micronutrient intake in patients with Alzheimer's disease. PMID:26107841

  19. Evaluation of the risk of venous thromboembolism after quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among US females.

    PubMed

    Yih, W Katherine; Greene, Sharon K; Zichittella, Lauren; Kulldorff, Martin; Baker, Meghan A; de Jong, Jill L O; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Griffin, Marie R; Jin, Robert; Lin, Nancy D; McMahill-Walraven, Cheryl N; Reidy, Megan; Selvam, Nandini; Selvan, Mano S; Nguyen, Michael D

    2016-01-02

    After the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV4) in 2006, reports suggesting a possible association with venous thromboembolism (VTE) emerged from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Our objective was to determine whether HPV4 increased VTE risk. The subjects were 9-26-year-old female members of five data partners in the FDA's Mini-Sentinel pilot project receiving HPV4 during 2006-2013. The outcome was radiologically confirmed first-ever VTE among potential cases identified by diagnosis codes in administrative data during Days 1-77 after HPV4 vaccination. With a self-controlled risk interval design, we compared counts of first-ever VTE in risk intervals (Days 1-28 and Days 1-7 post-vaccination) and control intervals (Days 36-56 for Dose 1 and Days 36-63 for Doses 2 and 3). Combined hormonal contraceptive use was treated as a potential confounder. The main analyses were: (1) unadjusted for time-varying VTE risk from contraceptive use, (2) unadjusted but restricted to cases without such time-varying risk, and (3) adjusted by incorporating the modeled risk of VTE by week of contraceptive use in the analysis. Of 279 potential VTE cases identified following 1,423,399 HPV4 doses administered, 225 had obtainable charts, and 53 were confirmed first-ever VTE. All 30 with onsets in risk or control intervals had known risk factors for VTE. VTE risk was not elevated in the first 7 or 28 days following any dose of HPV in any analysis (e.g. relative risk estimate (95% CI) from both unrestricted analyses, for all-doses, 28-day risk interval: 0.7 (0.3-1.4)). Temporal scan statistics found no clustering of VTE onsets after any dose. Thus, we found no evidence of an increased risk of VTE associated with HPV4 among 9-26-year-old females. A particular strength of this evaluation was its control for both time-invariant and contraceptive-related time-varying potential confounding.

  20. Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prince, Mary M.; Gilbert, Stephen J.; Smith, Randall J.; Stayner, Leslie T.

    2003-02-01

    Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly ``screened'' workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added (n=2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.

  1. Evaluation of Species Distribution Model Algorithms For Fine-Scale Container Breeding Mosquito Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Khatchikian, C.; Sangermano, F.; Kendell, D.; Livdahl, T.

    2010-01-01

    The present work evaluates the use of species distribution model (SDM) algorithms to classify high density of small container Aedes mosquitoes at a fine scale, in the Bermuda islands. Weekly ovitrap data collected by the Health Department of Bermuda (UK) for the years 2006 and 2007 were used for the models. The models evaluated included the following algorithms: Bioclim, Domain, GARP, logistic regression, and MaxEnt. Models were evaluated according to performance and robustness. The area Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate each model’s performance, and robustness was assessed considering the spatial correlation between classification risks for the two datasets. Relative to the other algorithms, logistic regression was the best model for classifying high risk areas, and the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) presented the second best performance. We report the importance of covariables for these two models, and discuss the utility of SDMs for vector control efforts and the potential for the development of scripts that automate the task of creating risk assessment maps. PMID:21198711

  2. [Evaluation of the cardiac risks in non-cardiac surgery in patients with heart failure].

    PubMed

    Pinaud, M

    2002-02-01

    Cardiac insufficiency represents a major risk factor in patients about to undergo non-cardiac surgery. The post-operative mortality is linked to the severity of the pre-operative functional impairment: rising from 4% in NYHA class 1 to 67% in class IV. The operative risk is greater when the cardiac insufficiency is more disabling, the patient is older (> 70 years) and if there is a history of acute pulmonary oedema and a gallop bruit on auscultation. The use of metabolic equivalents (Duke Activity Status Index) is recommended: the functional capacity is defined as excellent if > 7 MET, moderate between 4 and 7, or poor if < 4. A non-invasive evaluation of left ventricular function is necessary in each patient with obvious congestive cardiac insufficiency or poor control under the American consensus, but it is rare that the patient has not already been seen by a cardiologist. The degree of per-operative haemodynamic constraint is linked to the surgical technique and is stratified according to the type of surgical intervention and whether or not it is performed as an emergency. An intervention duration > 5 hours is associated with an increased peri-operative risk of congestive cardiac insufficiency and non-cardiac death. Deaths from a cardiac cause are thus twice as frequent after intra-abdominal, non-cardiac thoracic or aortic surgery and the post-operative cardiac complications are six times more frequent. Numerous studies have attempted to document the impact of different anaesthetic techniques on the prognosis for the population at increased risk of post-operative cardiovascular complications. It is advisable to opt for peripheral nerve blocks. The cardiovascular morbidity and overall mortality do not differ between general anaesthetic, epidural anaesthetic or spinal nerve block. The ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) classification is widely used to determine the overall risk. The ASA class and the age are however too coarse as methods of evaluation for

  3. How social context moderates the self-evaluative emotions experienced due to health risk behaviour.

    PubMed

    Grob, Judith D M; Dijkstra, Arie; de Groot, Carla

    2011-10-01

    When people are confronted with the potential negative physical outcomes of their own health risk behaviour, they experience a self-threat. This threat is felt as negative self-evaluative emotions. We hypothesise that the threat will lead to more private self-evaluative emotions (e.g. regret) in a private social context, whereas more public self-evaluative emotions (e.g. embarrassment) will be felt in a public social context with negative norms. Consistent with our hypotheses, we show that participants anticipate feeling more private self-evaluative emotions when confronted with the negative consequences of their unhealthy behaviour when alone, and more public self-evaluative emotions when in a group (Study 1). They further anticipate more public self-evaluative emotions in response to a health self-threat when the group norm is negative, and more private self-evaluative emotions when the group norm is lenient (Study 2). Finally, in a cross-sectional study amongst smokers, we show that private but not public negative self-evaluative emotions concerning their own smoking habits are positively correlated with the intent to quit smoking (Study 3). These studies show that a distinction needs to be made between public and private self-evaluative emotions, in terms of their antecedents and effects. Theoretical implications and further lines of research are discussed.

  4. Computer simulation of microgravity long-term effects and risk evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate possible long-term effects of microgravity on the human pulmonary function. It is also studied the efficacy of long-term regular exercise on relevant cardiovascular parameters when the human body is also exposed to microgravity. Little is known today about what long-term effects microgravity may cause on pulmonary function. It does not exist a complete explanation of the possible risks involved, although some experiments are under way on the ISS in order to evaluate them. Computer simulations are an important tool which may be used to predict and analyse these possible effects, and compare them with in-flight experiments. We based our study on a previous computer model (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects) which was developed in our laboratory and validated with the available data, focusing on the cardiovascular parameters affected by changes in gravity exposure. In this previous work we simulated part of the cardiovascular systems and we applied it to evaluate risks of blood-forming organs malfunction. NELME is based on an electrical-like control system model of the physiological changes, that may occur when gravity changes are applied. The computer implementation has a modular architecture. Hence, different output parameters, potential effects, organs and countermeasures can be easily implemented and evaluated. In this work we added a module to the system to analyse the pulmonary function with a gravity input parameter, as well as exposure time. We then conducted a battery of simulations when different values of g are applied for long-term exposures. We found no significant evidence of changes and no risks were foreseen. We also carried out an EVA simulation as a perturbation in the system (intense exercise, changes in breathed air) and studied the acute response. This is of great importance as current mission requirements do not allow data collection immediately following real EVAs

  5. Eliciting change in at-risk elders (ECARE): evaluation of an elder abuse intervention program.

    PubMed

    Mariam, Lydia Morris; McClure, Regina; Robinson, J B; Yang, Janet A

    2015-01-01

    The current study evaluated the effectiveness of a community-based elder abuse intervention program that assists suspected victims of elder abuse and self-neglect through a partnership with local law enforcement. This program, Eliciting Change in At-Risk Elders, involves building alliances with the elder and family members, connecting the elder to supportive services that reduce risk of further abuse, and utilizing motivational interviewing-type skills to help elders overcome ambivalence regarding making difficult life changes. Risk factors of elder abuse decreased over the course of the intervention and nearly three-quarters of participants made progress on their treatment goal, advancing at least one of Prochaska and DiClemente's (1983) stages of change (precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance). Forty-three percent of elders moved into the stages of action and maintenance regarding their goal. The usefulness of eliciting change via longer-term relationships with vulnerable elders in entrenched elder abuse situations is discussed.

  6. Atomic force microscopy as a tool to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases in patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guedes, Ana Filipa; Carvalho, Filomena A.; Malho, Inês; Lousada, Nuno; Sargento, Luís; Santos, Nuno C.

    2016-08-01

    The availability of biomarkers to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases is limited. High fibrinogen levels have been identified as a relevant cardiovascular risk factor, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Increased aggregation of erythrocytes (red blood cells) has been linked to high plasma fibrinogen concentration. Here, we show, using atomic force microscopy, that the interaction between fibrinogen and erythrocytes is modified in chronic heart failure patients. Ischaemic patients showed increased fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces compared with non-ischaemic patients. Cell stiffness in both patient groups was also altered. A 12-month follow-up shows that patients with higher fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces initially were subsequently hospitalized more frequently. Our results show that atomic force microscopy can be a promising tool to identify patients with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

  7. Human biomonitoring to optimize fish consumption advice: reducing uncertainty when evaluating benefits and risks.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Scott M; Lynn, Tracey V; Verbrugge, Lori A; Middaugh, John P

    2005-03-01

    National fish consumption advisories that are based solely on assessment of risk of exposure to contaminants without consideration of consumption benefits result in overly restrictive advice that discourages eating fish even in areas where such advice is unwarranted. In fact, generic fish advisories may have adverse public health consequences because of decreased fish consumption and substitution of foods that are less healthy. Public health is on the threshold of a new era for determining actual exposures to environmental contaminants, owing to technological advances in analytical chemistry. It is now possible to target fish consumption advice to specific at-risk populations by evaluating individual contaminant exposures and health risk factors. Because of the current epidemic of nutritionally linked disease, such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, general recommendations for limiting fish consumption are ill conceived and potentially dangerous.

  8. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    PubMed

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve.

  9. Atomic force microscopy as a tool to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases in patients.

    PubMed

    Guedes, Ana Filipa; Carvalho, Filomena A; Malho, Inês; Lousada, Nuno; Sargento, Luís; Santos, Nuno C

    2016-08-01

    The availability of biomarkers to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases is limited. High fibrinogen levels have been identified as a relevant cardiovascular risk factor, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Increased aggregation of erythrocytes (red blood cells) has been linked to high plasma fibrinogen concentration. Here, we show, using atomic force microscopy, that the interaction between fibrinogen and erythrocytes is modified in chronic heart failure patients. Ischaemic patients showed increased fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces compared with non-ischaemic patients. Cell stiffness in both patient groups was also altered. A 12-month follow-up shows that patients with higher fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces initially were subsequently hospitalized more frequently. Our results show that atomic force microscopy can be a promising tool to identify patients with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

  10. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology

    PubMed Central

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-01-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve. PMID:24573422

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  12. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

    PubMed

    Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

    2010-12-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation.

  13. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    SciTech Connect

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A.

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  14. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in stages of gout by a complex multimodal ultrasonography.

    PubMed

    Gancheva, Rada; Kundurdjiev, Atanas; Ivanova, Mariana; Kundurzhiev, Todor; Kolarov, Zlatimir

    2017-01-01

    The aim of our work was to assess ultrasound features of cardiovascular (CV) risk in stages of gout. Cross-sectional complex multimodal ultrasound study of 169 age-matched patients, with similar distribution of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity and chronic renal failure, was divided into four groups: 41 with asymptomatic hyperuricemia, 52 gout without tophi, 42 gouty tophi and 34 controls with osteoarthritis. Parameters independently associated with CV risk were measured: renal resistive index (RRI), left ventricular mass index (LVMi), mitral annulus early diastolic velocity (e'), intima-media thickness (IMT) and common carotid artery resistive index (CCARI). Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of gout stages and CV risk factors on ultrasound alterations. Gouty tophi increased the risk of having IMT >0.90 mm with an OR 11.51 (95 % CI 2.32-57.21, p = 0.003), gout without tophi raised the risk with an OR 6.25 (95 % CI 1.37-28.44, p = 0.018), while asymptomatic hyperuricemia had no effect on IMT. The category of CCARI >0.70 was influenced by tophi with an OR 11.18 (95 % CI 2.61-47.83, p = 0.001) and by arterial hypertension with an OR 3.22 (95 % CI 1.11-9.36, p = 0.032). Neither asymptomatic hyperuricemia nor gout without tophi modified the development of abnormally high CCARI. Gout stages had no impact on LVMi, e' and RRI. Tophi are related to worsened ultrasonographic parameters evaluating target organs in gout, relative to earlier stages of the disease. They create a strong risk of carotid arteries' changes even beyond arterial hypertension.

  15. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

    PubMed

    Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-03-08

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

  16. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data

    PubMed Central

    Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

  17. Evaluation of a sexual health approach to reducing HIV/STD risk in the transgender community.

    PubMed

    Bockting, W O; Robinson, B E; Forberg, J; Scheltema, K

    2005-04-01

    Despite reports of high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among the transgender community, very little prevention education has targeted this population. To fill this gap, we developed and evaluated a transgender-specific intervention, All Gender Health, which incorporates prevention strategies into comprehensive sexuality education. Transgender participants (N=181) attended the two-day seminar in community-based venues. The curriculum was delivered via lectures, panel discussions, videos, music, exercises and small group discussions. Attitudes toward condom use, safer sex self-efficacy and sexual risk behaviour were evaluated before participation in the intervention (pre-test), immediately after participation (post-test) and at three-month follow-up. Compared to pre-test values, significant improvements were seen in attitudes toward condom use and in safer sex self-efficacy at post-test, and in attitudes toward condom use, increased monogamy and decreased sexual risk behaviour at three-month follow-up. Pre-test data identified unprotected anal, vaginal and oral sex as the most commonly reported risk behaviours. Many respondents also indicated problems with social discrimination, depression, suicidal ideation and sexual functioning. Future interventions should address these risk co-factors. Alternative interventions need to be developed to target those who, as a result of social marginalization, are less likely to be reached with an intensive seminar-based intervention.

  18. Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

    2007-03-01

    We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

  19. Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test

    PubMed Central

    NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057

  20. [How to evaluate psychological risks: an ethics of aesthetic demand in orthodontics].

    PubMed

    Benkimoun, Franck

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating risks is part of the day-to-day practice of all orthodontists. Most of the time we forget that healing a patient also requires an evaluation of what is called the psychological risk. Indeed, focusing on harmonisation matters, we tend to omit that patient's requests, especially aesthetic requests, may conceal psychological problems. Such a risk is even higher when it comes to orthodontic-surgical protocols, as the physical changes are more radical. We will discuss the specificities of aesthetical demand, its links with the social discourse and the way self-esteem and reflection in the mirror are closely intermingled. Should we forget to take into account the psychological dimension of any patient, this could be a breach of professional ethics. We will furthermore consider the means we have to recognize patients with a high psychological risk. It is not in our hands to help these patients psychologically. It is in the hands of a mental health specialist, whose adress and phone number we should know in order to refer our patients to him/her.

  1. Relative potency as a means of evaluating ELF (Extremely Low Frequency) health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Easterly, C.E.; Glass, L.R.

    1990-09-01

    In the 1970's, a variety of developments took place to heightened public and scientific interest in electromagnetic fields. During this time, biological studies of nonionizing electromagnetic fields were taking place, but no clear evidence of risks to public health was identified. Then came the surprising epidemiological finding suggesting that 60 Hz magnetic fields may be related to some childhood leukemias. Our particular interest at ORNL was how to interpret the available data with respect to human exposures to the nearly ubiquitous fields. A review of the available data showed that consistent biological effects were difficult to identify. Classical toxicological tests used in chemical risk assessment had not been performed with Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) fields but rather a wide range of mechanistic studies had been pursued. To evaluate the level of anticipated hazard or risk there was neither a mechanistic understanding nor a consistent phenomenological outcome. A risk evaluation normally requires one or the other of these two types of information. Two quite different approaches were pursued: meta-analysis and relative potency. The first of these is a method to combine data from similar experiments to enhance the relative statistical power of a collection of small sample size studies, and will not be discussed further. The second, relative potency, will be the focus of this paper. 20 refs., 2 figs.

  2. Evaluation of Psoriasis Genetic Risk Based on Five Susceptibility Markers in a Population from Northern Poland

    PubMed Central

    Stawczyk-Macieja, Marta; Rębała, Krzysztof; Szczerkowska-Dobosz, Aneta; Wysocka, Joanna; Cybulska, Lidia; Kapińska, Ewa; Haraś, Agnieszka; Miniszewska, Paulina; Nowicki, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Psoriasis genetic background depends on polygenic and multifactorial mode of inheritance. As in other complex disorders, the estimation of the disease risk based on individual genetic variants is impossible. For this reason, recent investigations have been focused on combinations of known psoriasis susceptibility markers in order to improve the disease risk evaluation. Our aim was to compare psoriasis genetic risk score (GRS) for five susceptibility loci involved in the immunological response (HLA-C, ERAP1, ZAP70) and in the skin barrier function (LCE3, CSTA) between patients with chronic plaque psoriasis (n = 148) and the control group (n = 146). A significantly higher number of predisposing alleles was observed in patients with psoriasis in comparison to healthy individuals (6.1 vs. 5.2, respectively; P = 8.8×10−7). The statistical significance was even more profound when GRS weighted by logarithm odds ratios was evaluated (P = 9.9×10−14). Our results demonstrate the developed panel of five susceptibility loci to be more efficient in predicting psoriasis risk in the Polish population and to possess higher sensitivity and specificity for the disease than any of the markers analyzed separately, including the most informative HLA-C*06 allele. PMID:27658291

  3. Future research directions for evaluating human genetic and cancer risk from environmental exposures.

    PubMed Central

    Albertini, R J; Nicklas, J A; O'Neill, J P

    1996-01-01

    The utility of biomarkers for evaluating the genotoxicity of environmental exposures is well documented. Biomarkers of both exposure and effect provide bases for assessing human-genotoxicant interactions and may be indicative of future disease risk. At present, there is little information on the predictive value of these assays for either a population or the individuals tested. This paper describes some aspects of biomarker assays, the possible use of susceptibility measures in biomonitoring protocols, and the need for evaluation of disease relevance. A population study involving epidemiologists, geneticists, toxicologists, statisticians, and physicians is proposed to determine the disease relevance of these biomarkers. PMID:8781373

  4. The Risk-Taking and Self-Harm Inventory for Adolescents: Development and Psychometric Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vrouva, Ioanna; Fonagy, Peter; Fearon, Pasco R. M.; Roussow, Trudie

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we report on the development and psychometric evaluation of the Risk-Taking (RT) and Self-Harm (SH) Inventory for Adolescents (RTSHIA), a self-report measure designed to assess adolescent RT and SH in community and clinical settings. 651 young people from secondary schools in England ranging in age from 11.6 years to 18.7 years and…

  5. Technology evaluation for a mobile fall-injury risk assessment instrument.

    PubMed

    Currie, Leanne M; Chen, Elizabeth S

    2007-10-11

    Falls and associated injuries in the inpatient environment continue to be an unsolved patient safety problem. At New York-Presbyterian Hospital (NYP), an automated fall-injury risk assessment (FIRA) instrument was developed and integrated into the desktop-based clinical information system. The following study focuses on the evaluation criteria for hardware, software, and wireless communication options to study the use of a mobile version of the instrument.

  6. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility`s evaluation basis fire operational accident

    SciTech Connect

    Brumburgh, G.

    1994-08-31

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility.

  7. [Experience with using mathematic model for evaluation of a posteriori occupational risk].

    PubMed

    Piktushanskaia, T E

    2009-01-01

    The author analyzed changes in occupational morbidity among workers of leading economic branches of Russian Federation, gave prognosis of occupational morbidity level for recent and distant future. The morbidity level is characterized by reliable decreasing trend--that is due to long decline in diagnostic rate of occupational diseases in periodic medical examinations. The author specified mathematic model to evaluate a posteriori occupational risk, based on materials concerning periodic medical examinations in coal miners.

  8. Psychological first aid following trauma: implementation and evaluation framework for high-risk organizations.

    PubMed

    Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark

    2011-01-01

    International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.

  9. Using the Bayesian network relative risk model risk assessment process to evaluate management alternatives for the South River and upper Shenandoah River, Virginia.

    PubMed

    Johns, Annie F; Graham, Scarlett E; Harris, Meagan J; Markiewicz, April J; Stinson, Jonah M; Landis, Wayne G

    2017-01-01

    We have conducted a series of regional scale risk assessments using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to evaluate the efficacy of 2 remediation options in the reduction of risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. The 2 remediation options were 1) bank stabilization (BST) and 2) the implementation of best management practices for agriculture (AgBMPs) to reduce Hg input in to the river. Eight endpoints were chosen to be part of the risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although Hg contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, multiple chemical and physical stressors were evaluated in this analysis. Specific models were built that incorporated the changes expected from AgBMP and BST and were based on our previous research. Changes in risk were calculated, and sensitivity and influence analyses were conducted on the models. The assessments indicated that AgBMP would only slightly change risk in the study area but that negative impacts were also unlikely. Bank stabilization would reduce risk to Hg for the smallmouth bass and belted kingfisher and increase risk to abiotic water quality endpoints. However, if care were not taken to prevent loss of nesting habitat to belted kingfisher, an increase in risk to that species would occur. Because Hg was only one of several stressors contributing to risk, the change in risk depended on the specific endpoint. Sensitivity analysis provided a list of variables to be measured as part of a monitoring program. Influence analysis provided the range of maximum and minimum risk values for each endpoint and remediation option. This research demonstrates the applicability of ecological risk assessment and specifically the BN-RRM as part of a long-term adaptive management scheme for managing contaminated sites. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:100-114. © 2016 SETAC.

  10. Evaluating the Mental Models Approach to Developing a Risk Communication: A Scoping Review of the Evidence.

    PubMed

    Boase, Nick; White, Mathew; Gaze, William; Redshaw, Clare

    2017-03-17

    Risk communication is fundamental in ensuring people are equipped with the knowledge needed to navigate varied risks. One generally well-regarded framework for the development of such communications is the mental models approach to risk communication (MMARC). Developed during the 1990s, the MMARC has been applied to a range of health, technological, and environmental risks. However, as yet, we know of no attempt to collate and review articles that evaluated communications developed using the MMARC. This article took a first step at addressing this gap by conducting a scoping review that aimed to begin to explore the fidelity with which the approach has been applied, explore whether there appeared to be sufficient studies to warrant a future systematic review, and identify future research questions. Although the initial search found over 100 articles explicitly applying the MMARC, only 12 of these developed a risk-related communication that was tested against a control (and thus included in the current review). All studies reported a positive effect of the MMARC versus control communication for at least some of the outcome measures (knowledge being the most prevalent). However, there was wide variation between studies including type of control, outcomes assessed, and only five studies reported adopting a randomized design. The review highlights both the need for greater fidelity in the way future studies operationalize the MMARC approach, and suggests that a full-scale systematic review of the MMARC literature appears justified, especially given the possibility of a large gray literature in this area.

  11. Evaluating variability and uncertainty separately in microbial quantitative risk assessment using two R packages.

    PubMed

    Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

    2010-09-01

    Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org).

  12. Evaluation of the environmental impact of apple pest control strategies using pesticide risk indicators.

    PubMed

    Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph

    2011-10-01

    Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies.

  13. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  14. Comprehensive Evaluation of One-Carbon Metabolism Pathway Gene Variants and Renal Cell Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Gibson, Todd M.; Brennan, Paul; Han, Summer; Karami, Sara; Zaridze, David; Janout, Vladimir; Kollarova, Helen; Bencko, Vladimir; Navratilova, Marie; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Mates, Dana; Slamova, Alena; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z.; Mayne, Susan T.; Yeager, Meredith; Chanock, Stephen; Rothman, Nat; Chow, Wong-Ho; Rosenberg, Philip S.; Boffetta, Paolo; Moore, Lee E.

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Folate and one-carbon metabolism are linked to cancer risk through their integral role in DNA synthesis and methylation. Variation in one-carbon metabolism genes, particularly MTHFR, has been associated with risk of a number of cancers in epidemiologic studies, but little is known regarding renal cancer. Methods Tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected to produce high genomic coverage of 13 gene regions of one-carbon metabolism (ALDH1L1, BHMT, CBS, FOLR1, MTHFR, MTR, MTRR, SHMT1, SLC19A1, TYMS) and the closely associated glutathione synthesis pathway (CTH, GGH, GSS) were genotyped for 777 renal cell carcinoma (RCC) cases and 1,035 controls in the Central and Eastern European Renal Cancer case-control study. Associations of individual SNPs (n = 163) with RCC risk were calculated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, sex and study center. Minimum p-value permutation (Min-P) tests were used to identify gene regions associated with risk, and haplotypes were evaluated within these genes. Results The strongest associations with RCC risk were observed for SLC19A1 (Pmin-P = 0.03) and MTHFR (Pmin-P = 0.13). A haplotype consisting of four SNPs in SLC19A1 (rs12483553, rs2838950, rs2838951, and rs17004785) was associated with a 37% increased risk (p = 0.02), and exploratory stratified analysis suggested the association was only significant among those in the lowest tertile of vegetable intake. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively examine variation in one-carbon metabolism genes in relation to RCC risk. We identified a novel association with SLC19A1, which is important for transport of folate into cells. Replication in other populations is required to confirm these findings. PMID:22039442

  15. Evaluating re-identification risks with respect to the HIPAA privacy rule

    PubMed Central

    Benitez, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    Objective Many healthcare organizations follow data protection policies that specify which patient identifiers must be suppressed to share “de-identified” records. Such policies, however, are often applied without knowledge of the risk of “re-identification”. The goals of this work are: (1) to estimate re-identification risk for data sharing policies of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Privacy Rule; and (2) to evaluate the risk of a specific re-identification attack using voter registration lists. Measurements We define several risk metrics: (1) expected number of re-identifications; (2) estimated proportion of a population in a group of size g or less, and (3) monetary cost per re-identification. For each US state, we estimate the risk posed to hypothetical datasets, protected by the HIPAA Safe Harbor and Limited Dataset policies by an attacker with full knowledge of patient identifiers and with limited knowledge in the form of voter registries. Results The percentage of a state's population estimated to be vulnerable to unique re-identification (ie, g=1) when protected via Safe Harbor and Limited Datasets ranges from 0.01% to 0.25% and 10% to 60%, respectively. In the voter attack, this number drops for many states, and for some states is 0%, due to the variable availability of voter registries in the real world. We also find that re-identification cost ranges from $0 to $17 000, further confirming risk variability. Conclusions This work illustrates that blanket protection policies, such as Safe Harbor, leave different organizations vulnerable to re-identification at different rates. It provides justification for locally performed re-identification risk estimates prior to sharing data. PMID:20190059

  16. Evaluation of skeletal status by quantitative ultrasonometry in postmenopausal women without known risk factors for osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Mandato, Vincenzo Dario; Sammartino, Annalidia; Di Carlo, Costantino; Tommaselli, Giovanni A; Tauchmanovà, Libuse; D'Elia, Antonio; Nappi, Carmine

    2005-09-01

    The objective of our study was to evaluate bone density in Italian postmenopausal women without clinical risk factors for osteoporosis resident in the Naples area using quantitative ultrasonometry of bone (QUS). Subjects were 1149 Italian postmenopausal women (age: 54.9 +/- 5.0 years (mean +/- standard deviation); range: 45-74 years) resident in the Naples area. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis resulting in exclusion from the study were family history of osteoporosis, dietary, smoking and alcohol habits, personal history of fractures and/or metabolic diseases. The following QUS parameters were calculated: amplitude-dependent speed of sound (AD-SoS), T-score and Z-score. We found significant inverse correlations between AD-SoS and age (r = - 0.23), time since menopause (r = - 0.25) and body mass index (BMI) (r = - 0.16). The same was observed for T-score. In contrast, Z-score showed a significant positive correlation with age and time since menopause, and a negative correlation with BMI. A T-score suggestive of high risk for osteoporosis (less than -3.2) was found in 1.6% of subjects, while a T-score suggestive of moderate risk for osteoporosis (between -3.2 and -2) was found in 19.3% of patients. In this group of women without clinical risk factors for osteoporosis we found a very low prevalence of QUS results suggesting a high risk for osteoporosis. However, a condition of 'moderate' risk for osteoporosis was present in a remarkable percentage of these women.

  17. Evaluating Injury Risk and Gender Performance on Health- and Skill-Related Fitness Assessments.

    PubMed

    Grier, Tyson L; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Bushman, Timothy T; Anderson, Morgan K; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

    2017-04-01

    Grier, TL, Canham-Chervak, M, Bushman, TT, Anderson, MK, North, WJ, and Jones, BH. Evaluating injury risk and gender performance on health- and skill-related fitness assessments. J Strength Cond Res 31(4): 971-980, 2017-The purpose of this analysis was to investigate the association of injury risk and gender performance on health- and skill-related fitness assessments. A survey was used to collect personal characteristics and Army Physical Fitness Test scores (2-mile run, push-ups, and sit-ups). Within the same day, 9 physical fitness assessments were performed. Percent body fat was estimated using height, weight, age, and sex. All fitness assessment data were categorized into tertiles of high, moderate and low performance. To investigate potential injury risk predicted by fitness assessment performance, injury risk ratios, odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using medical record data. A total of 3,264 soldiers completed surveys and physical fitness assessments. Tertiles of fitness performance with men and women combined showed that on an average, 14% of women and 70% of men were in the moderate- and high-performance groups. Among men, higher injury risk was independently associated with low performance on a 2-mile run (ORslow/fast = 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.94) and low performance on a weighted 300-yard shuttle run (ORslow/fast = 1.36, 95% CI 1.06-1.74). For women, a higher risk of injury was associated with low performance on the 2-mile run (ORslow/fast = 2.38, 95% CI 1.04-5.74). Therefore, out of the 13 fitness assessments, the 2-mile run and weighted 300-yard shuttle run can also (in addition to measuring performance) be utilized to identify soldiers or athletes who are at a higher risk of experiencing an injury.

  18. Evaluation of the potential health risks of substances migrating from polycarbonate replacement baby bottles.

    PubMed

    Mertens, Birgit; Van Hoeck, Els; Blaude, Marie-Noëlle; Simon, Coraline; Onghena, Matthias; Vandermarken, Tara; Van Langenhove, Kersten; Demaegdt, Heidi; Vandermeiren, Karin; Covaci, Adrian; Scippo, Marie-Louise; Elskens, Marc; Van Loco, Joris

    2016-11-01

    Since the European Commission prohibited the use of bisphenol A in the production of polycarbonate (PC) baby bottles, many other materials have replaced PC for the manufacture of this type of food contact materials. In the present study, the potential migration risks associated with these alternative materials were investigated. First, all substances were evaluated for endocrine disruptive (ED) activity by using different existing lists of (suspected) ED chemicals. Next, the potential non-ED risks were assessed. A distinction was made between migrants listed in Annex I of European Regulation 10/2011 and the unlisted substances (e.g. non-intentionally added substances). For the listed substances, concentrations in the migration solutions were compared to their respective specific migration limits (SML) (when applicable). Migration of all substances was shown to be below their SML. The unlisted substances were evaluated using toxicological information from previous evaluations, or if not available, by applying the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approach. In case the estimated exposure to the unlisted substance exceeded the human exposure TTC value, a more indepth risk assessment was performed. Based on the results of both parts of the study, four baby bottles were considered of high concern because of the potential toxicity of migrating compounds.

  19. Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

    PubMed

    Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

    2003-12-01

    The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.

  20. Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    covariance shape, reaction parameters pertaining to aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes respectively as well as the dose response parameters. Even though the final result assumes a relatively simple form, few numerical quadratures are required in order to evaluate the trajectory moments of the solute plume. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis we apply the methodology to a hypothetical case study. The scenario investigated is made by an aquifer which constitutes a water supply for a population where a continuous source of NAPL contaminant feeds a steady plume. The risk analysis is limited to carcinogenic compounds for which the well-known linear relation for human risk is assumed. Analysis performed shows few interesting findings: the risk distribution is strictly dependent on the pore scale dynamics that trigger dilution and mixing; biodegradation may involve a significant reduction of the risk.

  1. PURE: a web-based decision support system to evaluate pesticide environmental risk for sustainable pest management practices in California.

    PubMed

    Zhan, Yu; Zhang, Minghua

    2012-08-01

    Farmers, policy makers, and other stakeholders seek tools to quantitatively assess pesticide risks for mitigating pesticide impacts on ecosystem and human health. This paper presents the Pesticide Use Risk Evaluation (PURE) decision support system (DSS) for evaluating site-specific pesticide risks to surface water, groundwater, soil, and air across pesticide active ingredient (AI), pesticide product, and field levels. The risk score is determined by the ratio of the predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) to the toxicity value for selected endpoint organism(s); except that the risk score for the air is calculated using the emission potential (EP), which is a pesticide product property for estimating potential volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by California Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA). The risk scores range from 0 to 100, where 0 represents negligible risk while 100 means the highest risk. The procedure for calculating PEC in surface water was evaluated against monitoring data for 41 pesticide AIs, with a statistically significant correlation coefficient of r=0.82 (p<0.001). In addition, two almond fields in the Central Valley, California were evaluated for pesticide risks as a case study, where the commonly acknowledged high-risk pesticides gained high risk scores. Simazine, one of the most frequently detected pesticides in groundwater, was scored as 74 (the moderate high risk class) to groundwater; and chlorpyrifos, one of the frequently detected pollutants in surface water, was scored as 100 (the high risk class) to surface water. In support of pesticide risk quantitative assessment and use of reduced-risk pesticide selection, the PURE-DSS can be useful to assist growers, pesticide control advisors, and environmental protection organizations in mitigating pesticide use impacts on the environment.

  2. An evaluation of Computational Fluid dynamics model for flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Francesco, Silvia; Biscarini, Chiara; Montesarchio, Valeria

    2014-05-01

    This work presents an analysis of the hydrological-hydraulic engineering requisites for Risk evaluation and efficient flood damage reduction plans. Most of the research efforts have been dedicated to the scientific and technical aspects of risk assessment, providing estimates of possible alternatives and of the risk associated. In the decision making process for mitigation plan, the contribute of scientist is crucial, due to the fact that Risk-Damage analysis is based on evaluation of flow field ,of Hydraulic Risk and on economical and societal considerations. The present paper will focus on the first part of process, the mathematical modelling of flood events which is the base for all further considerations. The evaluation of potential catastrophic damage consequent to a flood event and in particular to dam failure requires modelling of the flood with sufficient detail so to capture the spatial and temporal evolutions of the event, as well of the velocity field. Thus, the selection of an appropriate mathematical model to correctly simulate flood routing is an essential step. In this work we present the application of two 3D Computational fluid dynamics models to a synthetic and real case study in order to evaluate the correct evolution of flow field and the associated flood Risk . The first model is based on a opensource CFD platform called openFoam. Water flow is schematized with a classical continuum approach based on Navier-Stokes equation coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) method to take in account the multiphase character of river bottom-water- air systems. The second model instead is based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, an innovative numerical fluid dynamics scheme based on Boltzmann's kinetic equation that represents the flow dynamics at the macroscopic level by incorporating a microscopic kinetic approach. Fluid is seen as composed by particles that can move and collide among them. Simulation results from both models are promising and congruent to

  3. STRESSED SEBATES: A TRAIT-BASED EVALUATION OF CLIMATE RISKS TO ROCKFISHES OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC USING THE COASTAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...

  4. Stressed Sebastes: A Trait-Based Evaluation of Climate Risks to Rockfishes of the Northeastern Pacific Using the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...

  5. Evaluation of six risk factors for the development of bacteremia in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia

    PubMed Central

    Asturias, E.J.; Corral, J.E.; Quezada, J.

    2010-01-01

    Febrile neutropenia is a well-known entity in children with cancer, being responsible for the high risk for infection that characterizes this population. For this reason, cancer patients are hospitalized so that they can receive prophylactic care. Risk factors have been used to classify patients at a high risk for developing bacteremia. The present study evaluates whether those risk factors (C-reactive protein, hypotension, leukemia as the cancer type, thrombocytopenia, recent chemotherapy, and acute malnutrition) apply to patients at the Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica. We evaluated 102 episodes in 88 patients, in whom risk factors and blood cultures were tested. We observed no statistical relationship between the six risk factors and bacteremia. There was also no relationship between bacteremia and the simultaneous presence of two, three, or more risk factors. A significant relationship of C-reactive protein and platelet count with other outcome factors was observed. PMID:20404980

  6. Visual avoidance in phobia: particularities in neural activity, autonomic responding, and cognitive risk evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Aue, Tatjana; Hoeppli, Marie-Eve; Piguet, Camille; Sterpenich, Virginie; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the neural mechanisms and the autonomic and cognitive responses associated with visual avoidance behavior in spider phobia. Spider phobic and control participants imagined visiting different forest locations with the possibility of encountering spiders, snakes, or birds (neutral reference category). In each experimental trial, participants saw a picture of a forest location followed by a picture of a spider, snake, or bird, and then rated their personal risk of encountering these animals in this context, as well as their fear. The greater the visual avoidance of spiders that a phobic participant demonstrated (as measured by eye tracking), the higher were her autonomic arousal and neural activity in the amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and precuneus at picture onset. Visual avoidance of spiders in phobics also went hand in hand with subsequently reduced cognitive risk of encounters. Control participants, in contrast, displayed a positive relationship between gaze duration toward spiders, on the one hand, and autonomic responding, as well as OFC, ACC, and precuneus activity, on the other hand. In addition, they showed reduced encounter risk estimates when they looked longer at the animal pictures. Our data are consistent with the idea that one reason for phobics to avoid phobic information may be grounded in heightened activity in the fear circuit, which signals potential threat. Because of the absence of alternative efficient regulation strategies, visual avoidance may then function to down-regulate cognitive risk evaluations for threatening information about the phobic stimuli. Control participants, in contrast, may be characterized by a different coping style, whereby paying visual attention to potentially threatening information may help them to actively down-regulate cognitive evaluations of risk. PMID:23754994

  7. A comparative analysis based on different strength criteria for evaluation of risk factor for dental implants.

    PubMed

    Natali, A N; Pavan, P G

    2002-04-01

    A numerical analysis is developed to study the interaction phenomena between endousseus titanium dental implants and surrounding jawbone tissue. The interest is focused on the most appropriate evaluation of the stress state arising in the tissue because of the implant under physiological loading. The problem is considered with regard to linear elastic response of the one and to short time effect. Different configurations of bone-implant system are described, using axial-symmetrical and three-dimensional models, by means of finite and geometric element method. The investigation attains to the stress states induced in bone that lead to a limit condition near the effective failure surface. The parameter commonly adopted in literature, such as the Von Mises stress, represents an excessive simplification of problem formulation, leading to an incorrect evaluation of the real failure risk for the implant, due to the assumption of the isotropic and deviatoric nature of the adopted stress measure. More suitable criterion can be assumed, such as the Tsai-Wu criterion, to take into account the anisotropy that characterises the response of bone, as well as the influence of a hydrostatic stress state. The analysis developed offers a comparison of results by using different criteria, leading to an evaluation of reliability of the procedure to be followed and addressing also to an evaluation of a risk factor for the implant investigated.

  8. Evaluation of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a Predictor of Adolescent Real-World Risk-Taking Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lejuez, C. W.; Aklin, Will M.; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Pedulla, Christina M.

    2003-01-01

    A sample of 26 adolescents tested the utility of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a behavioral measure of risk-taking propensity. Data indicate that riskyness on the BART was related to self-reported engagement in real-world risk-taking behaviors. These data suggest that the BART may be a useful addition to self-report batteries for the…

  9. Evaluation of injury and fatality risk in rock and ice climbing.

    PubMed

    Schöffl, Volker; Morrison, Audry; Schwarz, Ulrich; Schöffl, Isabelle; Küpper, Thomas

    2010-08-01

    Rock and ice climbing are widely considered to be 'high-risk' sporting activities that are associated with a high incidence of severe injury and even death, compared with more mainstream sports. However, objective scientific data to support this perception are questionable. Accordingly, >400 sport-specific injury studies were analysed and compared by quantifying the injury incidence and objectively grading the injury severity (using the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics score) per 1000 hours of sporting participation. Fatalities were also analysed. The analysis revealed that fatalities occurred in all sports, but it was not always clear whether the sport itself or pre-existing health conditions contributed or caused the deaths. Bouldering (ropeless climbing to low heights), sport climbing (mostly bolt protected lead climbing with little objective danger) and indoor climbing (climbing indoors on artificial rock structures), showed a small injury rate, minor injury severity and few fatalities. As more objective/external dangers exist for alpine and ice climbing, the injury rate, injury severity and fatality were all higher. Overall, climbing sports had a lower injury incidence and severity score than many popular sports, including basketball, sailing or soccer; indoor climbing ranked the lowest in terms of injuries of all sports assessed. Nevertheless, a fatality risk remains, especially in alpine and ice climbing. In the absence of a standard definition for a 'high-risk' sport, categorizing climbing as a high-risk sport was found to be either subjective or dependent on the definition used. In conclusion, this analysis showed that retrospective data on sport-specific injuries and fatalities are not reported in a standardized manner. To improve preventative injury measures for climbing sports, it is recommended that a standardized, robust and comprehensive sport-specific scoring model should be developed to report and fully evaluate the injury risk, severity

  10. Physical evaluation system to determine medical risk and indicated dental therapy modifications.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, F M; Malamed, S F

    1979-08-01

    The physical evaluation system allows the practitioner to rapidly classify each patient according to medical risk and thus to provide dental treatment comfortably and safely. The evaluation system serves as a guide to the level of dental therapy, deisions of management, and modification of treatment for the medically compromised patient. Extensive use of the ADA physical status classification system in dentistry would allow meaningful studies of morbidity and mortality that are related to various management protocols and could conceivably have an impact on insurance schedules associated with psychosedation modalities and general anethesia on an out patient basis. A physical evaluation system cannot substitute for knowledge and good judgment. Recommended categories of physical status and modification of treatment should not be considered as absolutes, but as guides. Wheras the guidelines may appear to be inflexible, they should not be considered as such. Deviation from recommendations is often justified and is expected.

  11. Methodological Approaches to Evaluate Teratogenic Risk Using Birth Defect Registries: Advantages and Disadvantages

    PubMed Central

    Poletta, Fernando A.; López Camelo, Jorge S.; Gili, Juan A.; Leoncini, Emmanuele; Castilla, Eduardo E.; Mastroiacovo, Pierpaolo

    2012-01-01

    Background Different approaches have been used in case-control studies to estimate maternal exposure to medications and the risk of birth defects. However, the performance of these approaches and how they affect the odds ratio (OR) estimates have not been evaluated using birth-defect surveillance programmes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the scope and limitations of three case-control approaches to assess the teratogenic risk of birth defects in mothers exposed to antiepileptic medications, insulin, or acetaminophen. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied 110,814 non-malformed newborns and 58,514 live newborns with birth defects registered by the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Anomalies (ECLAMC) between 1967 and 2008. Four controls were randomly selected for each case in the same hospital and period, and three different control groups were used: non-malformed newborns (HEALTHY), malformed newborns (SICK), and a subgroup of SICK, only-exposed cases (OECA). Associations were evaluated using OR and Pearson's chi-square (P<0.01). There were no concordance correlations between the HEALTHY and OECA designs, and the average OR differences ranged from 3.0 to 11.5 for the three evaluated medicines. The overestimations observed for HEALTHY design were increased as higher OR values were given, with a high and statistically significant correlation between the difference and the mean. On the contrary, the concordance correlations obtained between the SICK and OECA designs were quite good, with no significant differences in the average risks. Conclusions The HEALTHY design estimates the true population OR, but shows a high rate of false-positive results presumably caused by differential misclassification bias. This bias decreases with the increase of the proportion of exposed controls. SICK and OECA odds ratios cannot be considered a direct estimate of the true population OR except under certain conditions. However, the SICK and OECA designs could

  12. Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach.

    PubMed

    Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A; Ramanujan, Saroja

    2016-01-01

    The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate.

  13. Second moment method for evaluating human health risks from groundwater contaminated by trichloroethylene.

    PubMed Central

    Jacobs, T L; Warmerdam, J M; Medina, M A; Piver, W T

    1996-01-01

    Pollutants in groundwater aquifers may constitute a significant human health risk. A large variation in response may result among human populations experiencing the same level and duration of exposure to pollutants. Variability in response, as a result of exposure to a carcinogenic contaminant such as trichloroethylene (TCE), can be represented by a distribution function of safe doses. Spatial variability in aquifer characteristics and contaminant transport parameters requires the use of stochastic transport models to quantify variability in exposure concentrations. A second moment method is used to evaluate the probability of exceeding safe dose levels for a contaminated aquifer. The name of this method stems from the fact that the formulation is based on the first and second moments of the random variables. With this method, the probability is a function of the variability of contaminant concentration (which incorporates variability in hydrogeologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity) and the variability in response in the human population. In this manner, the severity of the health risk posed by a contaminated aquifer and the evaluation of appropriate strategies and technologies for aquifer remediation are a function of contaminant concentrations and human health risks. The applicability and limitations of this method are demonstrated with data on groundwater contaminated by TCE at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. Images Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. Figure 4. PMID:8875161

  14. EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS

    PubMed Central

    WANG, LE; SHAW, PAMELA A.; MATHELIER, HANSIE M.; KIMMEL, STEPHEN E.; FRENCH, BENJAMIN

    2016-01-01

    The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., “false negatives”). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models. PMID:27158296

  15. Developing a utility decision framework to evaluate predictive models in breast cancer risk estimation

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yirong; Abbey, Craig K.; Chen, Xianqiao; Liu, Jie; Page, David C.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Peissig, Peggy; Onitilo, Adedayo A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Combining imaging and genetic information to predict disease presence and progression is being codified into an emerging discipline called “radiogenomics.” Optimal evaluation methodologies for radiogenomics have not been well established. We aim to develop a decision framework based on utility analysis to assess predictive models for breast cancer diagnosis. We garnered Gail risk factors, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and mammographic features from a retrospective case-control study. We constructed three logistic regression models built on different sets of predictive features: (1) Gail, (2) Gail + Mammo, and (3) Gail + Mammo + SNP. Then we generated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for three models. After we assigned utility values for each category of outcomes (true negatives, false positives, false negatives, and true positives), we pursued optimal operating points on ROC curves to achieve maximum expected utility of breast cancer diagnosis. We performed McNemar’s test based on threshold levels at optimal operating points, and found that SNPs and mammographic features played a significant role in breast cancer risk estimation. Our study comprising utility analysis and McNemar’s test provides a decision framework to evaluate predictive models in breast cancer risk estimation. PMID:26835489

  16. Pilot evaluation of an adolescent risk and injury prevention programme incorporating curriculum and school connectedness components.

    PubMed

    Chapman, R L; Buckley, L; Sheehan, M; Shochet, I M

    2013-08-01

    School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development (PD) for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received PD made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at 6-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students' connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries.

  17. The ABC’s of Suicide Risk Assessment: Applying a Tripartite Approach to Individual Evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Keith M.; Syu, Jia-Jia; Lello, Owen D.; Chew, Y. L. Eileen; Willcox, Christopher H.; Ho, Roger H. M.

    2015-01-01

    There is considerable need for accurate suicide risk assessment for clinical, screening, and research purposes. This study applied the tripartite affect-behavior-cognition theory, the suicidal barometer model, classical test theory, and item response theory (IRT), to develop a brief self-report measure of suicide risk that is theoretically-grounded, reliable and valid. An initial survey (n = 359) employed an iterative process to an item pool, resulting in the six-item Suicidal Affect-Behavior-Cognition Scale (SABCS). Three additional studies tested the SABCS and a highly endorsed comparison measure. Studies included two online surveys (Ns = 1007, and 713), and one prospective clinical survey (n = 72; Time 2, n = 54). Factor analyses demonstrated SABCS construct validity through unidimensionality. Internal reliability was high (α = .86-.93, split-half = .90-.94)). The scale was predictive of future suicidal behaviors and suicidality (r = .68, .73, respectively), showed convergent validity, and the SABCS-4 demonstrated clinically relevant sensitivity to change. IRT analyses revealed the SABCS captured more information than the comparison measure, and better defined participants at low, moderate, and high risk. The SABCS is the first suicide risk measure to demonstrate no differential item functioning by sex, age, or ethnicity. In all comparisons, the SABCS showed incremental improvements over a highly endorsed scale through stronger predictive ability, reliability, and other properties. The SABCS is in the public domain, with this publication, and is suitable for clinical evaluations, public screening, and research. PMID:26030590

  18. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  19. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

  20. Post-Flight Back Pain Following International Space Station Missions: Evaluation of Spaceflight Risk Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Back pain during spaceflight has often been attributed to the lengthening of the spinal column due to the absence of gravity during both short and long-duration missions. Upon landing and re-adaptation to gravity, the spinal column reverts back to its original length thereby causing some individuals to experience pain and muscular spasms, while others experience no ill effects. With International Space Station (ISS) missions, cases of back pain and injury are more common post-flight, but little is known about the potential risk factors. Thus, the purpose of this project was to perform an initial evaluation of reported post-flight back pain and injury cases to relevant spaceflight risk factors in United States astronauts that have completed an ISS mission. METHODS All US astronauts who completed an ISS mission between Expeditions (EXP) 1 and 41 (2000-2015) were included in this evaluation. Forty-five astronauts (36 males and 9 females) completed 50 ISS missions during the study time period, as 5 astronauts completed 2 ISS missions. Researchers queried medical records of the 45 astronauts for occurrences of back pain and injury. A case was defined as any reported event of back pain or injury to the cervical, thoracic, lumbar, sacral, or coccyx spine regions. Data sources for the cases included the Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record; Astronaut Strength, Conditioning and Rehabilitation electronic documentation; the Private Medical Conference tool; and the Space Medicine Operations Team records. Post-flight cases were classified as an early case if reported within 45 days of landing (R + 45) or a late case if reported from R + 46 to R + 365 days after landing (R + 1y). Risk factors in the astronaut population for back pain include age, sex, prior military service, and prior history of back pain. Additionally, spaceflight specific risk factors such as type of landing vehicle and onboard exercise countermeasures were included to evaluate their

  1. Shared risk evaluation mitigation strategy for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms.

    PubMed

    2012-06-01

    The Food and Drug Administration approved a single shared Risk Evaluation Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for transmucosal immediate-release fentanyl dosage forms in December 2011. This report describes the goals, elements, and restricted distribution system of the REMS designed to reduce risk of abuse, misuse, addiction, and overdose with the drugs. Questions and answers about REMS also are presented. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a shared REMS for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms on December 29, 2011, to become effective in March 2012. That announcement is accessible at: http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm285345.htm. Concurrently the FDA posted a series of questions and answers on this shared REMS at: http://http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/InformationbyDrugClass/ucm284717.htm. Both documents are in the public domain.

  2. [Diagnosis "risk of pneumonia" evidence-based evaluation and comparison of nursing interventions].

    PubMed

    Haslinger-Baumann, Elisabeth; Burns, Evelin

    2007-12-01

    In home nursing care, professionally qualified nurses make decisions on their own which must be based on the latest scientific research. The goal of this systematic literature review was to examine if the interventions of the diagnosis "Risk of Pneumonia" as used by a home care service provider in Austria are based on scientific evidence. Based on the research question "Can the interventions of the diagnosis 'risk of pneumonia' be found in the scientific nursing literature?", four evidence-based guidelines from various databases and institutes were identified and evaluated using a standardized checklist. The result of the analysis is that the majority of the Nursing diagnosis interventions can be found in the guidelines. It is also recommended in the guidelines to advise and support clients to stop smoking and inoculate against influenza/pneumonia. Similarly, assessment tools should be used to estimate the severity of pneumonia. The intervention of oral hygiene as a prophylactic intervention against pneumonia should get particular attention.

  3. [Reducing postoperative morbidity and mortality with preoperative risk evaluation and with refined perioperative medical care].

    PubMed

    Uchida, Kanji

    2012-05-01

    Reducing postoperative morbidity and mortality is important not only for patients' outcome but for reduction of financial burden on society. Precise and accurate preoperative evaluation of surgical risk factors is crucial to plan appropriate postoperative allocation of medical resources. American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status is a traditional measure to describe preoperative risk of patients undergoing surgery. In the last decade, several scoring systems with better sensitivity and specificity were reported and validated. Charlson Age-comorbidity Index, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) are frequently used scoring systems. Several lines of evidence indicate that negligence of medical caregivers cause substantial numbers of errors to patients and often leads to severe complications or deaths. Full compliances to surgical checklists and implementation of medical team will help reduce these errors and lead to better patients' postoperative outcomes.

  4. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  5. Evaluation and improvement of methods to quantify the exploration risk of geothermal projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganz, Britta; Schellschmidt, Rüdiger; Schulz, Rüdiger; Thomas, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    The quantification of exploration risks is of major importance for geothermal project planning. The exploration risk is defined as the risk of not successfully achieving a geothermal reservoir with minimum levels of thermal water production and reservoir temperatures (UNEP 2004). A simple method to quantify the probability of success (POS) for geothermal wells is to determine the single risks for temperature and flow rate and calculate the overall probability by multiplying the individual probabilities (SCHULZ et al. 2010). Since 2002, over 50 expert studies to evaluate the exploration risk of geothermal projects in Germany were carried out based on this method. The studies are requested as a basis for insurance contracts covering the risk of not achieving the necessary parameters. The estimated probabilities for temperature and flow rate in the expert reports were now compared with the parameters actually reached in meanwhile realised projects. The results are used for an improvement of the method. The probability of success for a given temperature was calculated using local temperature information in the vicinity of the planned well location. The greater significance of nearby temperature data was considered by inverse distance weighting. In highly productive deep aquifers, which are of major interest for geothermal projects, temperature gradients often strongly decrease due to an intense vertical mixing of the thermal water. Thus, the top of the considered aquifer was used as the reference point of the temperature assessment. As still some positive gradient can be expected within the aquifer, this is a conservative estimation. The evaluation of the reports should therefore especially answer the question, whether this approach has led to a systematic underestimation of the temperature. To calculate the probability of success for hydraulic parameters, the theoretical drawdown at a given flow rate was calculated for existing wells from hydraulic test data. The

  6. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

    2011-12-01

    Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

  7. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-18

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  8. Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

    SciTech Connect

    Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

    1998-01-01

    Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

  9. Proceedings of Conference XIII, evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Charonnat, Barbara B.

    1981-01-01

    The participants in the conference concluded that a great deal of useful research has been performed in the national Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers and that the state-of-knowledge concerning the evaluation of seismic hazards and risk has been advanced substantially. Many of the technical issues raised during the conference are less controversial now because of new information and insights gained during the first three years of the expanded research program conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act. Utilization of research results by many groups of users has also improved during this period and further improvement in utilization appears likely. Additional research is still required to resolve more completely the many complex technical issues summarized above and described in the papers contained in the proceedings. Improved certainty of research results on the evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk is required before full utilization can be made by state and local governments who deal. with people frequently having a different perception of the hazard and its risk to them than that perceived by scientists or engineers. Each of the papers contained in the proceedings contain throughtful recommendations for improving the state-of-knowledge. Two papers, in particular, focussed on this particular theme. The first was presented by Lynn Sykes in the Geologic Keynote Address. He identified geographic areas throughout the world which may be considered as counterparts or analogues of seismic zones in the United States. He concluded that much can be learned about prediction, tectonic settings, earthquake hazards, and earthquake risk for sites in the United States by studying their tectonic analogues in other countries. The second paper was presented by John Blume in the Engineering Keynote Address. He suggested 20 specific research topics that, in his opinion, will significantly advance the state

  10. Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Background Current approaches to chemical screening, prioritization, and assessment are being reenvisioned, driven by innovations in chemical safety testing, new chemical regulations, and demand for information on human and environmental impacts of chemicals. To conceptualize these changes through the lens of a prevalent disease, the Breast Cancer and Chemicals Policy project convened an interdisciplinary expert panel to investigate methods for identifying chemicals that may increase breast cancer risk. Methods Based on a review of current evidence, the panel identified key biological processes whose perturbation may alter breast cancer risk. We identified corresponding assays to develop the Hazard Identification Approach for Breast Carcinogens (HIA-BC), a method for detecting chemicals that may raise breast cancer risk. Finally, we conducted a literature-based pilot test of the HIA-BC. Results The HIA-BC identifies assays capable of detecting alterations to biological processes relevant to breast cancer, including cellular and molecular events, tissue changes, and factors that alter susceptibility. In the pilot test of the HIA-BC, chemicals associated with breast cancer all demonstrated genotoxic or endocrine activity, but not necessarily both. Significant data gaps persist. Conclusions This approach could inform the development of toxicity testing that targets mechanisms relevant to breast cancer, providing a basis for identifying safer chemicals. The study identified important end points not currently evaluated by federal testing programs, including altered mammary gland development, Her2 activation, progesterone receptor activity, prolactin effects, and aspects of estrogen receptor β activity. This approach could be extended to identify the biological processes and screening methods relevant for other common diseases. Citation Schwarzman MR, Ackerman JM, Dairkee SH, Fenton SE, Johnson D, Navarro KM, Osborne G, Rudel RA, Solomon GM, Zeise L, Janssen S. 2015

  11. Evaluation of the role of opium addiction in acute myocardial infarction as a risk factor

    PubMed Central

    Khosoosi Niaki, Mohammad Reza; Hamid, Mahdizadeh; Farshidi, Fatemeh; Mohammadpour, Mehdi; Salehi Omran, Mohammad Taghi

    2013-01-01

    Background: More than half of myocardial infracted (MI) patients have no conventional risk factors. Regarding the belief that opium addiction has a protective effect on heart diseases, addiction prevalence has unfortunately increased in recent years. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of opium addiction on patients with acute myocardial infarction. Methods: This case-control study was performed on 118 patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to CCU ward (case group), and 118 patients with no history of MI to other wards (control group) of Shahid Beheshti Hospital in Babol, Iran. Opium addiction conventional risk factors were evaluated for both groups, and the data were analyzed using chi-square test and logistic regression model was used to adjust the conventional risk factor effects. Moreover, demographic variables as well as the extent of MI (extensive or non-extensive), and infarction type (ST-elevated or non-ST elevated) also were evaluated. Results: Sixty-seven patients in MI and 6 subjects in control group had a history of opium consumption (p<0.0001, OR=24.5). Blood pressure, hyperlipidemia, and smoking showed a significant difference between the two groups (p<0.05), whereas, no significant difference was observed for diabetes and family history. The results of adjusted model report a significant effect of opium consumption with the development of MI (OR=26.3). No significant difference was found in terms of infarction type and the extent between the addicts and non addicts in MI group. Conclusion: The results show that opium addiction is a strong risk factor for myocardial infarction. PMID:24009941

  12. Preoperative evaluation and comprehensive risk assessment for children with Down syndrome.

    PubMed

    Lewanda, Amy Feldman; Matisoff, Andrew; Revenis, Mary; Harahsheh, Ashraf; Futterman, Craig; Nino, Gustavo; Greenberg, Jay; Myseros, John S; Rosenbaum, Kenneth N; Summar, Marshall

    2016-04-01

    Down syndrome is a common chromosome disorder affecting all body systems. This creates unique physiologic concerns that can affect safety during anesthesia and surgery. Little consensus exists, however, on the best way to evaluate children with Down syndrome in preparation for surgery. We review a number of salient topics affecting these children in the perioperative period, including cervical spine instability, cardiovascular abnormalities, pulmonary hypertension, upper airway obstruction, hematologic disturbances, prematurity, low birth weight, and the use of supplements and alternative therapies. Recommendations include obtaining a complete blood count to detect an increased risk for bleeding or stroke, and cardiology evaluation to identify patients with pulmonary hypertension, as well as undiagnosed or residual heart disease. Pediatric cardiac anesthesiologists and intensivists should be involved as needed. The potential for cervical spine instability should be considered, and the anesthesiologist may wish to have several options available both for the medications and equipment used. The child's family should always be asked if he or she is on any nutritional supplements, as some products marketed to families may have secondary effects such as inhibition of platelet function. Using this evaluation in presurgical planning will allow physicians to better consider the individual circumstances for their patients with Down syndrome. Our goal was to optimize patient safety by choosing the most appropriate setting and perioperative personnel, and to mitigate those risk factors amenable to intervention.

  13. European Approaches to Work-Related Stress: A Critical Review on Risk Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Lucchini, Roberto G

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention. PMID:22953229

  14. Regional risk assessment of the Puyallup River Watershed and the evaluation of low impact development in meeting management goals.

    PubMed

    Hines, Eleanor E; Landis, Wayne G

    2014-04-01

    The Relative Risk Model (RRM) is a tool used to calculate and assess the likelihood of effects to endpoints when multiple stressors occur in complex ecological systems. In this study, a Bayesian network was used to calculate relative risk and estimate uncertainty (BN-RRM) in the Puyallup River Watershed. First, we calculated the risk of prespawn mortality of coho salmon. Second, we evaluated the effect of low impact development (LID) as a means to reduce risk. Prespawner mortality in coho salmon within the Puyallup watershed was the endpoint selected for this study. A conceptual model showing causal pathways between stressors and endpoints was created to show where linkages exist. A relative risk gradient was found throughout the watershed. The lowest risk was found in risk regions with the least urban development, and the greatest risk of prespawner mortality was found in the highly urbanized risk regions with the largest amounts of impervious surface. LID did reduce risk but only when implemented at high intensities within the urban watersheds. The structure of the BN-RRM also provides a framework for water quality- and quantity-related endpoints within this and other watersheds. The framework is also useful for evaluating different strategies for remediation or restoration activities. The adaptability of using BNs for a relative risk assessment provides opportunities for the model to be adapted for other watersheds in the Puget Sound and Salish Sea region.

  15. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

  16. Large-Scale Evaluation of Candidate Genes Identifies Associations between VEGF Polymorphisms and Bladder Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    García-Closas, Montserrat; Malats, Núria; Real, Francisco X; Yeager, Meredith; Welch, Robert; Silverman, Debra; Kogevinas, Manolis; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Figueroa, Jonine; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Tardón, Adonina; Serra, Consol; Carrato, Alfredo; García-Closas, Reina; Murta-Nascimento, Cristiane; Rothman, Nathaniel; Chanock, Stephen J

    2007-01-01

    Common genetic variation could alter the risk for developing bladder cancer. We conducted a large-scale evaluation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate genes for cancer to identify common variants that influence bladder cancer risk. An Illumina GoldenGate assay was used to genotype 1,433 SNPs within or near 386 genes in 1,086 cases and 1,033 controls in Spain. The most significant finding was in the 5′ UTR of VEGF (rs25648, p for likelihood ratio test, 2 degrees of freedom = 1 × 10−5). To further investigate the region, we analyzed 29 additional SNPs in VEGF, selected to saturate the promoter and 5′ UTR and to tag common genetic variation in this gene. Three additional SNPs in the promoter region (rs833052, rs1109324, and rs1547651) were associated with increased risk for bladder cancer: odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 2.52 (1.06–5.97), 2.74 (1.26–5.98), and 3.02 (1.36–6.63), respectively; and a polymorphism in intron 2 (rs3024994) was associated with reduced risk: 0.65 (0.46–0.91). Two of the promoter SNPs and the intron 2 SNP showed linkage disequilibrium with rs25648. Haplotype analyses revealed three blocks of linkage disequilibrium with significant associations for two blocks including the promoter and 5′ UTR (global p = 0.02 and 0.009, respectively). These findings are biologically plausible since VEGF is critical in angiogenesis, which is important for tumor growth, its elevated expression in bladder tumors correlates with tumor progression, and specific 5′ UTR haplotypes have been shown to influence promoter activity. Associations between bladder cancer risk and other genes in this report were not robust based on false discovery rate calculations. In conclusion, this large-scale evaluation of candidate cancer genes has identified common genetic variants in the regulatory regions of VEGF that could be associated with bladder cancer risk. PMID:17319747

  17. [Pollution evaluation and health risk assessment of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou].

    PubMed

    Li, Ping; Xue, Su-Yin; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

    2014-03-01

    In order to evaluate the contamination and health risk of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou, samples of atmospheric deposition were collected from 11 sampling sites respectively and their concentrations of heavy metals were determined. The results showed that the average contents of Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn and Mn were 82.22, 130.31, 4.34, 88.73, 40.64, 369.23 and 501.49 mg x kg(-1), respectively. There was great difference among different functional areas for all elements except Mn. According to the results, the enrichment factor score of Mn was close to 1, while the enrichment of Zn, Ni, Cu and Cr was more serious, and Pb and Cd were extremely enriched. The assessment results of geoaccumulation index of potential ecological risk indicated that the pollution of Cd in the atmospheric deposition of Lanzhou should be classified as extreme degree, and that of Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb as between slight and extreme degrees, and Cr as practically uncontaminated. Contaminations of atmospheric dust by heavy metals in October to the next March were more serious than those from April to August. Health risk assessment indicated that the heavy metals in atmospheric deposition were mainly ingested by human bodies through hand-mouth ingestion. The non-cancer risk was higher for children than for adults. The order of non-cancer hazard indexes of heavy metals was Pb > Cr > Cd > Cu > Ni > Zn. The non-cancer hazard indexes and carcinogen risks of heavy metals were both lower than their threshold values, suggesting that they will not harm the health.

  18. Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Nitika; Ayoko, Godwin A; Salthammer, Tunga; Morawska, Lidia

    2015-10-01

    In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on children's health. Within this context, through the application of a maximum cumulative ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health-related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the hazard index. Maximum cumulative ratio and hazard index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92 % of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the 'low concern' group, and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus aids in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment.

  19. Using high-resolution lidar data to evaluate natural hazards and risk in Oregon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madin, I.; Burns, W.; Priest, G. R.; Allan, J. C.; Roberts, J.

    2013-12-01

    Since 2007, the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) has been collecting large areas of high resolution lidar area in Oregon for a wide range of applications. One of DOGAMI's most important uses of the data is to map and model natural hazards, and to evaluate the risk posed by those hazards. Lidar data allow for more accurate, comprehensive and affordable mapping and modeling of hazards, and lidar derived inventories of structures allow more accurate and comprehensive estimates of risk. DOGAMI has applied this combination of enhanced hazard and risk assessment to volcano hazards, landslides and debris flow hazards, earthquake hazards, flood and channel migration hazards and coastal erosion and tsunami hazards. For volcano hazards lidar provides accurate topography for lahar inundation models. For landslides, lidar is the definitive tool for mapping existing landslides and debris flow deposits, and lidar topography essential for accurate modeling of susceptibility. Lidar imagery has identified dozens of previously unknown Quaternary fault scarps in Oregon, although virtually none of the data collection has targeted fault hazards. Lidar topography is essential for modeling flood flows and for delineating flood zones accurately, and can be used as a base for registration of historical photography to map channel migration, and to identify areas of potential avulsion in the modern floodplain. Serial lidar can quantify coastal change, and detailed and accurate topography provide a base for mapping coastal landforms that control erosion rates and processes. Lidar-derived topography provides the basis for the terrestrial portions of the high resolution numerical models of tsunami propagation and inundation that DOGAMI has prepared for the entire Oregon coast. These hazard studies are coupled with detailed and accurate risk and exposure analysis based on building footprint and infrastructure mapping based on lidar. This allows us an accurate and

  20. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  1. The "Dry-Run" Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control.

    PubMed

    Wyss, Richard; Hansen, Ben B; Ellis, Alan R; Gagne, Joshua J; Desai, Rishi J; Glynn, Robert J; Stürmer, Til

    2017-03-06

    A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the "dry-run" analysis, which divides the unexposed population into "pseudo-exposed" and "pseudo-unexposed" groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with the C statistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models.

  2. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  3. An overview of BWR Mark-1 containment venting risk implications: An evaluation of potential Mark-1 containment improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Wagner, K.C.; Dallman, R.J.; Galyean, W.J.

    1989-06-01

    This report supplements containment venting risk evaluations performed for the Mark-I Containment Performance Improvement (CPI) Program. Quantitative evaluations using simplified containment event trees for station blackout sequences were performed to evaluate potential risk reduction offered by containment venting, and improved automatic depressurization system with a dedicated power source, and an additional supply of water to either the containment sprays or the vessel with a dedicated power source. The risk calculations were based on the Draft NUREG-1150 results for Peach Bottom with selected enhancements. Several sensitivity studies were performed to investigate phenomenological, operational, and equipment performance uncertainties. Qualitative risk evaluations were provided for loss of long-term containment heat removal and anticipated transients without scram for the same set of improvements. A limited discussion is provided on the generic applicability of these results to other plants with Mark-I containments. 23 refs., 15 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. Evaluating a Pregnancy and STI Prevention Programme in Rural, At-Risk, Middle School Girls in the USA

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Julie C.; Lynne-Landsman, Sarah D.; Graber, Julia A.; Johnson, Kelly J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Young people in urban areas are often the focus of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention programmes because of their high risk of unwanted pregnancy and contracting an STI. Young people in rural areas are far less studied but also have a high risk of similar outcomes. This study evaluates Giving Our Girls…

  5. The Struggle to Prevent and Evaluate: Application of Population Attributable Risk and Preventive Fraction to Suicide Prevention Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krysinska, Karolina; Martin, Graham

    2009-01-01

    Population attributable risk (PAR) estimates have been used in suicide research to evaluate the impact of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors, including affective disorders, traumatic life events, and unemployment. A parallel concept of preventive fraction (PF), allowing for estimation of the impact of protective factors and effectiveness…

  6. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as

  7. Level 3 baseline risk evaluation for Building 3506 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Golden, K.M.; Robers, S.K.; Cretella, F.M.

    1994-12-01

    This report presents the results of the Level 3 Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) performed on Building 3506 located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This BRE is intended to provide an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects (current or future) posed by contaminants at the facility. The decision was made to conduct a Level 3 (least rigorous) BRE because only residual contamination exists in the building. Future plans for the facility (demolition) also preclude a rigorous analysis. Site characterization activities for Building 3506 were conducted in fall of 1993. Concrete core samples were taken from the floors and walls of both the cell and the east gallery. These cores were analyzed for radionuclides and organic and inorganic chemicals. Smear samples and direct radiation measurements were also collected. Sediment exists on the floor of the cell and was also analyzed. To adequately characterize the risks posed by the facility, receptors for both current and potential future land uses were evaluated. For the current land use conditions, two receptors were evaluated. The first receptor is a hypothetical maintenance worker who spends 250 days (8 hours/day) for 25 years working in the facility. The remaining receptor evaluated is a hypothetical S and M worker who spends 2 days (8 hours/day) per year for 25 years working within the facility. This particular receptor best exemplifies the current worker scenario for the facility. The two current exposure scenarios and parameters of exposure (e.g., inhalation and ingestion rates) have been developed to provide a conservative (i.e. health protective) estimate of potential exposure.

  8. Evaluating the impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus on cardiovascular risk in persons with metabolic syndrome using the UKPDS risk engine

    PubMed Central

    Ogedengbe, O Stephen; Ezeani, Ignatius U; Chukwuonye, Ijezie I; Anyabolu, Ernest N; Ozor, Ikemefuna I; Eregie, Aihanuwa

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of coexistence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on the estimated cardiovascular risk as calculated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetic Study risk engine (UKPDS-RE) and also to determine the impact of the coexistence of MS and T2DM on the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke. Methodology This is a cross-sectional study in which convenience sampling technique was used to recruit 124 consecutive persons with T2DM and 96 controls using a questionnaire administered technique. The World Health Organization (WHO) criterion was used to define MS and the UKPDS-RE was used to identify persons with increased risk for stroke and those with increased risk for coronary heart disease. The data obtained were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Statistical comparisons were made with chi-square for comparison of proportions. A P-value of less than 0.05 was taken as statistically significant. Results Fifteen subjects were identified as having an increased 10-year risk for stroke and ten as having an increased risk for a coronary event. The odds of a T2DM subject with MS having an increased risk for stroke compared with a T2DM subject without MS was 0.9579≈1 while the odds of a T2DM subject with MS developing an increased risk for a coronary event compared with a T2DM subject without MS was =3.451≈3. Conclusion MS was more common in subjects with T2DM compared with controls (irrespective of the diagnostic criteria used) and MS appears to increase the risk of a coronary event in subjects with T2DM by threefold. Also from this study, MS did not appear to cause an additional increase in the risk of stroke in subjects with T2DM. PMID:26396537

  9. Iterative Evaluation in a Mobile Counseling and Testing Program to Reach People of Color at Risk for HIV--New Strategies Improve Program Acceptability, Effectiveness, and Evaluation Capabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

    2011-01-01

    This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's…

  10. Evaluating heavy metal accumulation and potential health risks in vegetables irrigated with treated wastewater.

    PubMed

    Qureshi, Asad Sarwar; Hussain, M Iftikhar; Ismail, Shoaib; Khan, Qaisar Mehmood

    2016-11-01

    Effect of irrigation with treated municipal wastewater on the accumulation of heavy metals in soils and food crops and potential health risks to human via consumption of these food crops are evaluated. The higher concentrations of iron (Fe), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr) and zinc (Zn) were found in lettuce, radish and carrots, respectively. However, trace metal levels in all vegetables were far lower than the food safety criteria of World Health Organization and European Union. Bioaccumulation factors (BAF) for heavy metals in different vegetables showed a trend in the order: Fe > Zn > Cu > Cr. The trends of estimated dietary intake (EDIs) for adults were in the order of Fe > Zn > Cr > Cu. The highest level of total coliform was recorded in spinach, followed by radish, egg plant, tomatoes and lettuce. The low uptake of heavy metals by vegetables shows that the health risks for human are insignificant. As the variations in transfer factor of metals is related to absorption capability of vegetables, soil properties and nutrient management, the risk of human exposure to metal contamination can be significantly reduced by selecting appropriate crops.

  11. The Evaluation of Risk Factors for Postoperative Infectious Complications after Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Tian; Liu, Shenghua; Wang, Lujia

    2017-01-01

    This study was to evaluate the risk factors of infectious complications after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) and build a prediction tool for postoperative complications based on the risk factors. A total of 110 male (67.1%) and 54 female (32.9%) patients who underwent PCNL for renal stones between 2010 and 2014 in our institute were included. A detailed clinical information and laboratory results were obtained from patients. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and postoperative fever were recorded after PCNL surgery. In all, 45 cases (27.4%) developed SIRS and fever was observed in 20 cases (12.2%). In multivariate analysis, stone size (odds ratio, OR = 1.471, p = 0.009) and urine white blood cell (WBC) (OR = 1.001, p = 0.007) were related to the development of SIRS. Stone size (OR = 1.644, p = 0.024), urine WBC (OR = 1.001, p = 0.002) and serum albumin (OR = 0.807, p = 0.021) were associated with postoperative fever. We concluded that patients with larger stone size and preoperative urinary tract infection might have a higher risk of developing SIRS and fever after operation, while a high-normal level of serum albumin might be the protective factor for postoperative fever. PMID:28261611

  12. Mouse germ cell mutation tests in genetic risk evaluation of chemical mutagens.

    PubMed

    Generoso, W M

    1988-12-01

    That certain environmental chemicals can induce transmissible mutations in germ cells of experimental mammal is clear. The assumption that under certain conditions these chemicals are also likely to be mutagenic to human germ cells is not detectable. However, it is a difficult challenge to determine the level of human exposure at which such chemicals can be produced and used economically without significantly harming human health. Data on transmitted genetic effects in mice are necessary, not only as a measure of endpoints that are considered directly in genetic risk assessment, but also as the standard for evaluating the usefulness of non-germ-cell effects as predictors in genetic risk assessment. To carry out a "real world" genetic risk assessment exercise, in vivo mouse data are being obtained for two model chemicals--ethylene oxide and acrylamide. Both chemicals are capable of inducing transmissible genetic effects in mice; their production and use involve measurable human exposures; and, because they are socially and economically important, they are not likely to be banned altogether despite their mutagenicity. For both chemicals, data are not sufficient for accurate low-dose and low-dose-rate extrapolations.

  13. An evaluation of a Canadian peer-driven injury prevention programme for high-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Tenn, L; Dewis, M E

    1996-02-01

    The mortality and morbidity resulting from serious trauma in adolescence, particularly head and spinal cord injury, constitutes a health problem of major proportions. Although many community-based prevention programmes have been reported in this last decade, few of these describe an evaluation component. In this study, a school-based prevention programme was developed by a peer group and presented by them to high-risk adolescents. The study aimed to test the efficacy of this intervention compared to the delivery of a prevention presentation to a similar group by a health care professional and compared to a control group. Measures of health locus of control, self-efficacy and behavioural intent were supplemented by open-ended items related to risk-taking behaviour change. At post-test and at 4-month follow-up, there was little evidence in the quantitative measures to support the effectiveness of the intervention for reducing injury risk factors. More encouraging findings were seen in the qualitative data. Explanations for why the intervention did not result in the expected outcomes are offered.

  14. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2015-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  15. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl (Compiler); Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  16. Evaluation dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodarzi, E.; Mirzaei, M.; Shui, L. T.; Ziaei, M.

    2011-11-01

    There is a growing tendency to assess the safety levels of existing dams based on risk and uncertainty analysis using mathematical and statistical methods. This research presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses by applying Gumbel logistic distribution for the Doroudzan earth-fill dam in south of Iran. The bivariate frequency analysis resulted in six inflow hydrographs with a joint return period of 100-yr. The overtopping risks were computed for all of those hydrographs considering quantile of flood peak discharge (in particular 100-yr), initial depth of water in the reservoir, and discharge coefficient of spillway as uncertain variables. The maximum height of the water, as most important factor in the overtopping analysis, was evaluated using reservoir routing and the Monte Carlo and Latin hypercube techniques were applied for uncertainty analysis. Finally, the achieved results using both univariate and bivariate frequency analysis have been compared to show the significance of bivariate analyses on dam overtopping.

  17. Health risks of electromagnetic fields. Part I: Evaluation and assessment of electric and magnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Habash, Riadh W Y; Brodsky, Lynn M; Leiss, William; Krewski, Daniel; Repacholi, Michael

    2003-01-01

    Exposure to electric and magnetic fields (EMF) emanating from the generation, distribution, and utilization of electricity is widespread. The major debate in recent years has focused on the possibility that exposure to EMF may result in adverse health consequences, including the development of cancer. This article provides a review and evaluation of potential health risks associated with residential and occupational exposure to EMF. In addition to reviewing data from laboratory, epidemiology, and clinical studies, we examine exposure data from field measurement surveys and exposure guidelines that have been established for EMF. Currently, the evidence in support of an association between EMF and childhood cancer is limited, although this issue warrants further investigation. Evidence of an association between EMF exposure and adult cancers, derived largely from occupational settings, is inconsistent, precluding clear conclusions. There is little evidence of an association between EMF and noncancer health effects. Epidemiological studies of EMF and population health are limited by exposure measurement error and the lack of a clear dose/response relationship in studies suggesting possible health risks. Further research is needed to clarify the ambiguous findings from present studies and to determine if EMF exposure poses a health risk.

  18. Evaluation of low back pain risks in a beef skinning operation.

    PubMed

    Das, B; Sengupta, A K

    2000-01-01

    The low back pain risks in a beef skinning operation at a high stand kill floor workstation was evaluated. The increases in compressive forces at lower back (L5/S1) between normal slump (back angle 25 degrees, measured in the sagittal plane) and severe (45 degrees ) and between normal slump and very severe (70 degrees ) bent back postures were 387 N or 28% and 616 N or 45%, respectively. The high spine load coupled with high level of repetition can have a high probability of fatigue failure in the spine structural members. Non-neutral back posture for a large portion of the total work time can be a low back pain risk factor. The videotape analysis showed that the times involved during the task performance for the bent back (more than 25 degrees ) and severe bent back (more than 45 degrees ) were 48.4 and 33.5% of the total cycle time, respectively. The upper limit from OWAS (Ovako Working Posture Analysis System) for bent back posture is 30% of the total cycle time. The bent and twisted back posture (both more than 25 degrees ) time was 10.4% compared to OWAS limit of 5%. This indicated that actions are needed in the near future to alleviate the risk of low back pain. Ergonomics redesign of the workstation was recommended for the operation.

  19. Application of ecological risk assessment principles to evaluation of oil spill impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Brannon, E.L.; Neff, J.M.; Pearson, W.H.; Stubblefield, W.A.; Maki, A.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecological risk assessments are often used prospectively to predict the consequences of human activities on the environment. Laboratory and field studies were conducted to evaluate the ecological impacts to commercial fishery resources resulting from the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Using the ecorisk paradigm, each of the studies correlated concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons in different environmental compartments with observed biological effects in local populations of herring and pink salmon. Hydrocarbon concentrations in the water column of the Sound were elevated for a short time after the spill, but 99.7% of the samples remained below the Alaska water quality standard and returned to background levels within a few months. PAH concentrations in sediments and eggs correlated with a very low degree of injury to early life stages of herring and salmon. Overall, effects of the spill on populations of herring and pink salmon were minimal and post-spill harvests of the year classes at greater risk of spill injury in the two years following the spill were at or near record levels. The program underscores the utility and strength of the risk assessment paradigm to identify contaminant related injury while considering effects attributable to natural ecosystem variability.

  20. Evaluation of variation in the phosphoinositide-3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha oncogene and breast cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, K N; Garcia-Closas, M; Fredericksen, Z; Kosel, M; Pankratz, V S; Hopper, J L; Dite, G S; Apicella, C; Southey, M C; Schmidt, M K; Broeks, A; Van ‘t Veer, L J; Tollenaar, R A E M; Fasching, P A; Beckmann, M W; Hein, A; Ekici, A B; Johnson, N; Peto, J; dos Santos Silva, I; Gibson, L; Sawyer, E; Tomlinson, I; Kerin, M J; Chanock, S; Lissowska, J; Hunter, D J; Hoover, R N; Thomas, G D; Milne, R L; Pérez, JI Arias; González-Neira, A; Benítez, J; Burwinkel, B; Meindl, A; Schmutzler, R K; Bartrar, C R; Hamann, U; Ko, Y D; Brüning, T; Chang-Claude, J; Hein, R; Wang-Gohrke, S; Dörk, T; Schürmann, P; Bremer, M; Hillemanns, P; Bogdanova, N; Zalutsky, J V; Rogov, Y I; Antonenkova, N; Lindblom, A; Margolin, S; Mannermaa, A; Kataja, V; Kosma, V-M; Hartikainen, J; Chenevix-Trench, G; Chen, X; Peterlongo, P; Bonanni, B; Bernard, L; Manoukian, S; Wang, X; Cerhan, J; Vachon, C M; Olson, J; Giles, G G; Baglietto, L; McLean, C A; Severi, G; John, E M; Miron, A; Winqvist, R; Pylkäs, K; Jukkola-Vuorinen, A; Grip, M; Andrulis, I; Knight, J A; Glendon, G; Mulligan, A M; Cox, A; Brock, I W; Elliott, G; Cross, S S; Pharoah, P P; Dunning, A M; Pooley, K A; Humphreys, M K; Wang, J; Kang, D; Yoo, K-Y; Noh, D-Y; Sangrajrang, S; Gabrieau, V; Brennan, P; McKay, J; Anton-Culver, H; Ziogas, A; Couch, F J; Easton, D F

    2011-01-01

    Background: Somatic mutations in phosphoinositide-3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha (PIK3CA) are frequent in breast tumours and have been associated with oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 overexpression, lymph node metastasis and poor survival. The goal of this study was to evaluate the association between inherited variation in this oncogene and risk of breast cancer. Methods: A single-nucleotide polymorphism from the PIK3CA locus that was associated with breast cancer in a study of Caucasian breast cancer cases and controls from the Mayo Clinic (MCBCS) was genotyped in 5436 cases and 5280 controls from the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) study and in 30 949 cases and 29 788 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Results: Rs1607237 was significantly associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer in MCBCS, CGEMS and all studies of white Europeans combined (odds ratio (OR)=0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–0.99, P=4.6 × 10−3), but did not reach significance in the BCAC replication study alone (OR=0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.01, P=0.139). Conclusion: Common germline variation in PIK3CA does not have a strong influence on the risk of breast cancer PMID:22033276

  1. Probabilistic evaluation of flood risk in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation (with uncertainty)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronica, G. T.; Franza, F.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.

    2009-04-01

    The goal of the presented research is the derivation of flood risk maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation in a urban site in the UK, specifically the area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing impervi-ousness typical of the urban areas has been used to derive hydrodynamic characteristics of flood event (i.e, water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the building/social characteristics of urban areas from digital map data allowed for the production of risk maps based on properly defined risk indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deter-ministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flood-ing at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty.

  2. Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

  3. Safety evaluation of disposable baby diapers using principles of quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Rai, Prashant; Lee, Byung-Mu; Liu, Tsung-Yun; Yuhui, Qin; Krause, Edburga; Marsman, Daniel S; Felter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    Baby diapers are complex products consisting of multiple layers of materials, most of which are not in direct contact with the skin. The safety profile of a diaper is determined by the biological properties of individual components and the extent to which the baby is exposed to each component during use. Rigorous evaluation of the toxicological profile and realistic exposure conditions of each material is important to ensure the overall safety of the diaper under normal and foreseeable use conditions. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles may be applied to the safety assessment of diapers and similar products. Exposure to component materials is determined by (1) considering the conditions of product use, (2) the degree to which individual layers of the product are in contact with the skin during use, and (3) the extent to which some components may be extracted by urine and delivered to skin. This assessment of potential exposure is then combined with data from standard safety assessments of components to determine the margin of safety (MOS). This study examined the application of QRA to the safety evaluation of baby diapers, including risk assessments for some diaper ingredient chemicals for which establishment of acceptable and safe exposure levels were demonstrated.

  4. Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.

    PubMed

    Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W

    2011-01-01

    Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision.

  5. The benefits of a watershed approach to evaluating risks for multiple hazardous waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Burris, J.A.; Pease, A.; Jop, K.; Connely, R.

    1994-12-31

    An integrated sampling program including chemical analyses of surface waters and sediments, measurement of water quality parameters, sampling of macroinvertebrate communities, and toxicity testing of soils and sediments was implemented on a US DOD Facility within three watersheds where multiple waste sites are located. The results of the study were used to identify the migration and distribution of contamination from individual waste sites, to identify any areas of obvious biological stress where future studies should be focused, to evaluate the need for sampling and analyses of aquatic organisms, to evaluate the influence of other non-point source and point sources of contamination of other stressors, and to identify sediment contamination in relation to the waste sites. This information was necessary to the design and implementation of ecological risk assessment for the individual waste sites. The methodology used to complete the study and its results will be presented. The focus of the discussion will be on the benefits of a watershed based sampling design (versus a more traditional site by site approach) in terms of cost savings, remedial decision making, and time savings. An additional discussion will focus on how this approach can be used to address the potential additive risks to a watershed resulting from the presence of multiple waste sites.

  6. Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE): Protocol and preliminary data.

    PubMed

    Gale, Nichola S; Albarrati, Ali M; Munnery, Margaret M; Munnery, Iain C; Irfan, Mujammil; Bolton, Charlotte E; Rambaran, Curtis N; Singer, Ruth M Tal; Cockcroft, John R; Shale, Dennis J

    2014-11-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a multisystem disease. Established comorbidities include cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, loss of muscle mass and function, depression, and impaired quality of life. The natural history is not well understood. The Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE) is a longitudinal study of comorbidities in COPD. The primary aims are to delineate the progression and interrelationships of cardiovascular disease and associated comorbidities. Each year ARCADE aims to recruit 250 patients diagnosed with COPD and 50 comparators (free from respiratory disease). Assessments include spirometry, body composition, blood pressure, aortic stiffness (pulse wave velocity (PWV)), noninvasive measures of cardiac output, systemic inflammatory mediators, blood and urine biochemistry, and physical and health outcomes. These will be repeated at 2 and 5 years. In the first year of recruitment, 350 patients and 100 comparators were recruited. The reproducibility of aortic PWV, cardiac output, stroke volume, and cardiac index was evaluated and accepted in 30 patients free from overt cardiovascular disease. The preliminary data from ARCADE have demonstrated acceptable reproducibility of hemodynamic outcome measures. Further longitudinal data collection will increase knowledge of the progression and interactions between cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities in COPD.

  7. Evaluation of oxidative stress markers and vascular risk factors in patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathy.

    PubMed

    El Boghdady, Noha Ahmed; Badr, Gamal Ali

    2012-06-01

    Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is one of the most common diabetic chronic complications. The pathogenesis of DPN is complex and involves an intertwined array of mechanisms. The purposes of this study were to evaluate the association of oxidative stress and vascular risk factors with the prevalence of DPN and to determine the role of these biochemical parameters in the prognosis of DPN. One hundred patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and 40 clinically healthy individuals were evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups. Group 1 included 40 diabetic patients without peripheral neuropathy, and group 2 consisted of 60 patients with DPN. Erythrocytes glutathione (GSH) level, plasma malondialdehyde (MDA), nitrite/nitrate (NOx) and homocysteine (Hcy) levels as well as serum ceruloplasmin (Cp), total antioxidants (TAO), endothelin-1 (ET-1) levels and γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activity were estimated. A significant decrease of erythrocyte GSH was observed in groups 1 and 2 relative to the controls. An increase in glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), MDA, NOx, GGT, Cp, TAO, Hcy and ET-1 was noted in patients with DPN. In conclusion, oxidative stress biomarkers and vascular risk factors could be important in the pathogenesis of DPN. The measurement of serum GGT and Hcy in addition to HbA1c and disease duration could facilitate the early detection of neuropathy in diabetic patients.

  8. [Model for evaluating the risk of introducing rabbit viral hemorrhagic disease based on experience in Mexico].

    PubMed

    Heneidi Zeckua, A; Zepeda Sein, C; Mateos Poumián, A; Velázquez, G

    1997-04-01

    Viral haemorrhagic disease (VHD) of rabbits was introduced into Mexico from the United States of America in November 1988, following the importation of infected carcasses from China. In February 1989, the National System for Animal Health Emergencies was created, and an eradication programme was implemented at that time. The VHD virus was eradicated in 1992, by means of disease control procedures which included active epidemiological surveillance, publicity campaigns, slaughter, cleaning and disinfection of affected premises, the use of sentinel animals, serological monitoring and repopulation. The eradication programme involved the serological sampling of 39,727 rabbits (revealing an incidence of 1.4%) and the slaughter of 121,275 affected rabbits and rabbits at risk of exposure to infection. The final outbreak of the disease was recorded in April 1991. The country maintained strict epidemiological surveillance through serological testing, certification of premises free from the disease, and control of movement of animals and animal products. Mexico was declared free from the disease on 20 January 1993, becoming the first country to have eradicated VHD. The authors propose a model to evaluate the risk of introducing VHD through the importation of animals and animal products. A guide is provided to evaluate each branch of the relevant scenario tree and the principal criteria which indicate the event at each parameter.

  9. Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

    2016-04-01

    To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

  10. Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  11. Drug interactions evaluation: an integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a "Drug Development and Drug Interactions" website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  12. ISTA13--international interlaboratory comparative evaluation of microbial assay for risk assessment (MARA).

    PubMed

    Wadhia, K

    2008-10-01

    The microbial assay for risk assessment (MARA) is an innovative system based on an array of 11 different microbial species freeze-dried in a 96-well micro-titer plate. Developed for testing the toxicity of chemicals, mixtures, and environmental samples, the assay employs species of a taxonomically diverse range. In addition to 10 prokaryotic species, a eukaryote (yeast) is included in the range. The MARA's innate scope of a multi-dimensional test allows determination of toxicity based on a unique assay fingerprint or index, numerically expressed as the mean microbial toxic concentration (MTC). The most significant potential of the test is in the additional inference that can be conveyed to the toxicity evaluation because of the presence of each of the constituent species. The performance of MARA was evaluated to ascertain its capability and potential scope in an intralaboratory trial. Sensitivity to toxicants and different environmental samples was assessed. Evaluation included comparison with other tests; namely Microtox, invertebrate (Daphnia magna and Thamnocephalus platyurus) microbiotests, and respiration- and nitrification-inhibition tests. MARA's performance was further assessed with the implementation of an international interlaboratory trial. This involved the participation of 13 laboratories ranging from academic establishments to regulatory agencies. The results of the testing will be presented with assessment of the extent of variability and specific assay components. The trial evaluation indicated that performance of the assay was satisfactory and the results were within the acceptable range. MARA is a robust multispecies assay offering scope for toxicity assessment of a diverse range of samples.

  13. Fate and transport evaluation of potential leaching risks from cadmium telluride photovoltaics.

    PubMed

    Sinha, Parikhit; Balas, Robert; Krueger, Lisa; Wade, Andreas

    2012-07-01

    Fate and transport analysis has been performed to evaluate potential exposures to cadmium (Cd) from cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaics (PV) for rainwater leaching from broken modules in a commercial building scenario. Leaching from broken modules is modeled using the worst-case scenario of total release of Cd, and residential screening levels are used to evaluate potential health impacts to on-site workers and off-site residents. A rooftop installation was considered rather than a ground-mount installation because rainwater runoff is concentrated via building downspouts in a rooftop installation rather than being dispersed across large areas in a ground-mount installation. Fate and transport of Cd from leachate to soil are modeled using equilibrium soil/soil-water partitioning. Subsequent migration to ambient air as windblown dust is evaluated with a screening Gaussian plume dispersion model, and migration to groundwater is evaluated with a dilution-attenuation factor approach. Exposure point concentrations in soil, air, and groundwater are one to six orders of magnitude below conservative (residential soil, residential air, drinking water) human health screening levels in both a California and southern Germany (Baden-Württemberg) exposure scenario. Potential exposures to Cd from rainwater leaching of broken modules in a commercial building scenario are highly unlikely to pose a potential health risk to on-site workers or off-site residents.

  14. Lipoprotein redox status evaluation as a marker of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with inflammatory disease

    PubMed Central

    Ungurianu, Anca; Margină, Denisa; Grădinaru, Daniela; Băcanu, Claudia; Ilie, Mihaela; Tsitsimpikou, Christina; Tsarouhas, Konstantinos; Spandidos, Demetrios A.; Tsatsakis, Aristides M.

    2016-01-01

    Patients with chronic inflammatory disorders (ID) have an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, and routinely determined parameters do not reveal the real metabolic status of specific subgroups, such as patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In this study, in order to evaluate state of the art markers for the assessment of cardiometabolic risk, abnormalities in lipoprotein levels in patients with a low-grade inflammatory status [diabetes mellitus (DM) subgroup] and in patients with a high systemic inflammatory burden (RA subgroup) was determined. The study group comprised patients with ID [DM (n=20) and RA (n=20)], with an aged-matched control group (n=17). Patient serum was used to determine routine biochemical parameters and to isolate low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL). The heparin-citrate method was used for LDL precipitation and the phosphotungstic acid-MgCl2 technique for the isolation of HDL. Further, Amplex Red and advanced oxidation protein product (AOPP) assays were applied to determine lipid peroxides and protein oxidation, respectively, while the levels of serum advanced glycation end products (AGEs) were also determined. Although the differences in the routinely determined lipidemic profile were notable between the DM and RA subgroups, markers of lipid peroxidation and of advanced protein oxidation/glycation did not differ significantly, indicating possible similar oxidative damage of serum lipoproteins. On the whole, as alterations in lipoprotein functionality can occur long before any changes in routinely measured biochemical parameters are observed, more sensitive markers for the assessment of cardiovascular risk are required. As AOPPs, AGEs, oxidized LDL (oxLDL) and especially oxidized HDL (oxHDL) are affected during the early stages of inflammatory disease, and due to their known link to coronary artery disease, it would be wise to include these markers in the routine cardiovascular evaluation of

  15. Maternal drug use: evaluation of risks to breast-fed infants.

    PubMed

    Kirksey, A; Groziak, S M

    1984-01-01

    This paper, based on a review of the literature, evaluates the risks to infants of maternal drug use during lactation. The potential harm of a particular drug to the breastfed infant is related both to the complex mechanism of milk synthesis and secretion and the mode of passage of the drug from plasma into milk. The 1st part of the paper discusses mammary cell and milk synthesis, milk secretion and composition, the mode of passage of drugs into milk, and factors influencing drug concentrations in milk. Drug concentrations in milk are dependent on 6 major factors: drug dosage, proportion bound in plasma, molecular weight, lipid solubility, degree of ionization, and pH difference between plasma and milk. Drugs that are weak acids are ionized to a greater extent and are more protein-bound than weak alkaline drugs. The 2nd part of the paper evaluates the risks to breastfed infants of selected pharmacons. Some categories of drugs that contain pharmacons that should be limited or avoided by nursing mothers are alkylating agents, analgesics and anti-inflammatory agents, anticoagulants, anticonvulsants, anti-infective agents, central nervous system stimulants, hormones, laxatives, minerals, provitamins, psychotherapeutic agents, thyroid affecting agents, and vitamins. The following precautions are suggested to minimize the risks of potentially harmful pharmacons: 1) all unnecessary medications should be avoided by nrusing mothers; 2) if medication is necessary during lactation, drug dosage should be controlled and the infant should be monitored for adverse symptoms; 3) drugs should be administered shortly after breastfeeding and the interval prolonged before the next feeding; and 4) if the infant must be fed soon after a potentially harmful drug has been taken by the mother, bottle feeding is recommended.

  16. Application of systematic coronary risk evaluation chart to identify chronic myeloid leukemia patients at risk of cardiovascular diseases during nilotinib treatment.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; Molica, Matteo; Zacheo, Irene; Serrao, Alessandra; Alimena, Giuliana

    2015-03-01

    Nilotinib is currently approved for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic (CP) and accelerated phase (AP) after failure of imatinib and in newly diagnosed patients. Atherosclerotic events were retrospectively reported in patients with baseline cardiovascular risk factors during nilotinib treatment. We estimated the risk of developing atherosclerotic events in patients treated with second or first-line nilotinib, with a median follow-up of 48 months, by retrospectively applying the SCORE chart proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and evaluating risk factors at baseline (diabetes, obesity, smoking, and hypertension). Overall, we enrolled in the study 82 CP patients treated frontline (42 CP patients at the dose of 600 mg BID) or after failure of other tyrosine kinase inhibitors (40 CP patients treated with 400 mg BID). The SCORE chart is based on the stratification of sex (male vs female), age (from 40 to 65 years), smoker vs non-smoker, systolic pressure (from 120 to 180 mm Hg), and cholesterol (measured in mmol/l, from 150 to 300 mg/dl). For statistical purposes, we considered patients subdivided in low, moderate, high (with a score >5), and very high risk. There were 48 males and 34 females, median age 51 years (range 22-84). According to WHO classification, 42 patients were classified as normal weight (BMI <25), 26 patients were overweight (BMI 26 ≤ 30), and 14 were obese (BMI >30). Retrospective classification according to the SCORE chart revealed that 27 patients (33 %) were in the low-risk category, 30 patients (36 %) in the moderate risk category, and 24 patients (29 %) in the high risk. As regards risk factors, we revealed that 17 patients (20.7 %) had a concomitant type II controlled diabetes (without organ damage), 23 patients (28 %) were smokers, 29 patients (35 %) were receiving concomitant drugs for hypertension, and 15 patients (18 %) had concomitant dyslipidemia. Overall, the cumulative incidence of

  17. Evaluating the fall risk among elderly population by choice step reaction test

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Donghai; Zhang, Jian; Sun, Yuliang; Zhu, Wenfei; Tian, Shiliu; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Falls during daily activities are often associated with injuries and physical disabilities, thereby affecting quality of life among elder adults. Balance control, which is crucial in avoiding falls, is composed of two elements: muscle strength and central nervous system (CNS) control. A number of studies have reported that reduced muscle strength raises the risk of falling. However, to date there has been only limited research focused on the relationship between fall risk and the CNS. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between CNS and risk of falling among the elderly. A total of 140 elderly people (92 females and 48 males) were divided into faller and nonfaller groups based on questionnaire responses concerning falls in their daily life. Participants undertook a choice step reaction test in which they were required to respond to random visual stimuli using foot movements as fast as possible in the left or right directions. Response time was quantified as premotor time (PMT) and motor time (MT). In addition, the participants’ electro-myography data were recorded during the choice step reaction test. A maximal isokinetic torque test was also performed. PMT was greater in the fallers than in the nonfallers group. There was a significant difference between fall status and direction on PMT. PMT of the left limb in nonfallers was faster than the right, but in fallers there was no difference between left and right limbs. A similar phenomenon was also observed for MT. There were significant differences between fallers and nonfallers in maximum isokinetic torque at knee and ankle joints. The correct rate of PMT was higher than other variables, such as MT and maximal isokinetic torque, in evaluating elderly fall risk by using logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that PMT in the choice step reaction test could be a useful parameter to assess risk of fall among elder adults. In addition, decreased maximal isokinetic torque was related to greater

  18. Evaluating the fall risk among elderly population by choice step reaction test.

    PubMed

    Wang, Donghai; Zhang, Jian; Sun, Yuliang; Zhu, Wenfei; Tian, Shiliu; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Falls during daily activities are often associated with injuries and physical disabilities, thereby affecting quality of life among elder adults. Balance control, which is crucial in avoiding falls, is composed of two elements: muscle strength and central nervous system (CNS) control. A number of studies have reported that reduced muscle strength raises the risk of falling. However, to date there has been only limited research focused on the relationship between fall risk and the CNS. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between CNS and risk of falling among the elderly. A total of 140 elderly people (92 females and 48 males) were divided into faller and nonfaller groups based on questionnaire responses concerning falls in their daily life. Participants undertook a choice step reaction test in which they were required to respond to random visual stimuli using foot movements as fast as possible in the left or right directions. Response time was quantified as premotor time (PMT) and motor time (MT). In addition, the participants' electro-myography data were recorded during the choice step reaction test. A maximal isokinetic torque test was also performed. PMT was greater in the fallers than in the nonfallers group. There was a significant difference between fall status and direction on PMT. PMT of the left limb in nonfallers was faster than the right, but in fallers there was no difference between left and right limbs. A similar phenomenon was also observed for MT. There were significant differences between fallers and nonfallers in maximum isokinetic torque at knee and ankle joints. The correct rate of PMT was higher than other variables, such as MT and maximal isokinetic torque, in evaluating elderly fall risk by using logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that PMT in the choice step reaction test could be a useful parameter to assess risk of fall among elder adults. In addition, decreased maximal isokinetic torque was related to greater PMT

  19. Evaluations of land cover risk factors for canine leptospirosis: 94 cases (2002-2009).

    PubMed

    Raghavan, R; Brenner, K; Higgins, J; Van der Merwe, D; Harkin, K R

    2011-09-01

    Associations of land cover/land use variables and the presence of dogs in urban vs. rural address locations were evaluated retrospectively as potential risk factors for canine leptospirosis in Kansas and Nebraska using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The sample included 94 dogs positive for leptospirosis predominantly based on a positive polymerase chain reaction test for leptospires in urine, isolation of leptospires on urine culture, a single reciprocal serum titer of 12,800 or greater, or a four-fold rise in reciprocal serum titers over a 2-4 weeks period; and 185 dogs negative for leptospirosis based on a negative polymerase chain reaction test and reciprocal serum titers less than 400. Land cover features from 2001 National Land Cover Dataset and 2001 Kansas Gap Analysis Program datasets around geocoded addresses of case/control locations were extracted using 2500m buffers, and the presence of dogs' address locations within urban vs. rural areas were estimated in GIS. Multivariate logistic models were used to determine the risk of different land cover variables and address locations to dogs. Medium intensity urban areas (OR=1.805, 95% C.I.=1.396, 2.334), urban areas in general (OR=2.021, 95% C.I.=1.360, 3.003), and having urban address locations (OR=3.732, 95% C.I.=1.935, 7.196 entire study region), were significant risk factors for canine leptospirosis. Dogs regardless of age, sex and breed that live in urban areas are at higher risk of leptospirosis and vaccination should be considered.

  20. Evaluating the Cost, Safety, and Proliferation Risks of Small Floating Nuclear Reactors.

    PubMed

    Ford, Michael J; Abdulla, Ahmed; Morgan, M Granger

    2017-01-17

    It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid-century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks. One such deployment paradigm is the build-own-operate-return model. Because returning small land-based reactors containing spent fuel is infeasible, we evaluate the cost, safety, and proliferation risks of a system in which small modular reactors are manufactured in a factory, and then deployed to a customer nation on a floating platform. This floating small modular reactor would be owned and operated by a single entity and returned unopened to the developed state for refueling. We developed a decision model that allows for a comparison of floating and land-based alternatives considering key International Atomic Energy Agency plant-siting criteria. Abandoning onsite refueling is beneficial, and floating reactors built in a central facility can potentially reduce the risk of cost overruns and the consequences of accidents. However, if the floating platform must be built to military-grade specifications, then the cost would be much higher than a land-based system. The analysis tool presented is flexible, and can assist planners in determining the scope of risks and uncertainty associated with different deployment options.

  1. Fractures of the Sacrum After Chemoradiation for Rectal Carcinoma: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Radiographic Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Han Jo; Boland, Patrick J.; Meredith, Dennis S.; Lis, Eric; Zhang Zhigang; Shi Weiji; Yamada, Yoshiya J.; Goodman, Karyn A.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: Sacral insufficiency fractures after adjuvant radiation for rectal carcinoma can present similarly to recurrent disease. As a complication associated with pelvic radiation, it is important to be aware of the incidence and risk factors associated with sacral fractures in the clinical assessment of these patients. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2007, a total of 582 patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma received adjuvant chemoradiation and surgical excision. Of these, 492 patients had imaging studies available for review. Hospital records and imaging studies from all 492 patients were retrospectively evaluated to identify risk factors associated with developing a sacral insufficiency fracture. Results: With a median follow-up time of 3.5 years, the incidence of sacral fractures was 7.1% (35/492). The 4-year sacral fracture free rate was 0.91. Univariate analysis showed that increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years), female sex, and history of osteoporosis were significantly associated with shorter time to sacral fracture (P=.01, P=.004, P=.001, respectively). There was no significant difference in the time to sacral fracture for patients based on stage, radiotherapy dose, or chemotherapy regimen. Multivariate analysis showed increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-5.13, P=.01), female sex (HR = 2.64, CI = 1.29-5.38, P=.008), and history of osteoporosis (HR = 3.23, CI = 1.23-8.50, P=.02) were independent risk factors associated with sacral fracture. Conclusions: Sacral insufficiency fractures after pelvic radiation for rectal carcinoma occur more commonly than previously described. Independent risk factors associated with fracture were osteoporosis, female sex, and age greater than 60 years.

  2. The care of Filipino juvenile offenders in residential facilities evaluated using the risk-need-responsivity model.

    PubMed

    Spruit, Anouk; Wissink, Inge B; Stams, Geert Jan J M

    2016-01-01

    According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and criminogenic needs assessments (parenting style, aggression, relationships with peers, empathy, and moral reasoning) have been conducted using data of 55 juvenile offenders in four residential facilities. The psychological care has been assessed using a checklist. Statistical analyses showed that juvenile offenders had a high risk of re-offending, high aggression, difficulties in making pro-social friends, and a delayed socio-moral development. The psychological programs in the residential facilities were evaluated to be poor. The availability of the psychological care in the facilities fitted poorly with the characteristics of the juvenile offenders and did not comply with the risk-need-responsivity model. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

  3. Investment risk evaluation and countermeasures suggestions of Power Grid Corp under the background of electric power reform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chunhui; Su, Zhixiong; Wang, Yuqing; Liu, Yiqun; Qi, Yongwei

    2017-03-01

    Investment management is an important part of Power Grid Corp. The new electricity reform put forward the general idea of "three release, three strengthening, one independence", which brings new risks to the investment management of the Power Grid Corp. First, the paper analyzes the new risks faced by the Power Grid Corp investment under the background of the electricity reform. Second, the AHP-Fuzzy evaluation model of investment risk of Power Grid Corp is established, and taking Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau as an example, the paper evaluated its risk level of investment plan in 2017. Finally, in the context of the electricity reform, the strategy of the Power Grid Corp's investment risk is proposed.

  4. The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs: Findings on Designing and Implementing Effective Prevention Programs for Youth at High Risk. Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hermann, Jack; Sambrano, Soledad; Springer, J. Fred; Nister, Mary; Sale, Elizabeth; Brounstein, Paul J.; Cordray, David; Shadish, Will; Kasim, Rafa; Pan, Wei

    This document summarizes findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs, which identified characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes in 48 prevention programs. It provides concrete guidance regarding what elements of design and implementation are…

  5. Using cross-validation to evaluate predictive accuracy of survival risk classifiers based on high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard M; Subramanian, Jyothi; Li, Ming-Chung; Menezes, Supriya

    2011-05-01

    Developments in whole genome biotechnology have stimulated statistical focus on prediction methods. We review here methodology for classifying patients into survival risk groups and for using cross-validation to evaluate such classifications. Measures of discrimination for survival risk models include separation of survival curves, time-dependent ROC curves and Harrell's concordance index. For high-dimensional data applications, however, computing these measures as re-substitution statistics on the same data used for model development results in highly biased estimates. Most developments in methodology for survival risk modeling with high-dimensional data have utilized separate test data sets for model evaluation. Cross-validation has sometimes been used for optimization of tuning parameters. In many applications, however, the data available are too limited for effective division into training and test sets and consequently authors have often either reported re-substitution statistics or analyzed their data using binary classification methods in order to utilize familiar cross-validation. In this article we have tried to indicate how to utilize cross-validation for the evaluation of survival risk models; specifically how to compute cross-validated estimates of survival distributions for predicted risk groups and how to compute cross-validated time-dependent ROC curves. We have also discussed evaluation of the statistical significance of a survival risk model and evaluation of whether high-dimensional genomic data adds predictive accuracy to a model based on standard covariates alone.

  6. A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

  7. Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction and Self-Defense Program: A Prospective Analysis of a Revised Protocol

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly

    2008-01-01

    The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…

  8. 77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-17

    ... model used by the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) and suggestions for further...: Richard Forshee, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration... disease computer simulation models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks...

  9. Evaluation and re-evaluation of genetic radiation hazards in man. III. Other relevant data and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sankaranarayanan, K

    1976-06-01

    Some of the advances in mammalian radiation genetics, human genetics and cytogenetics that were made during the last 2-3 years and that have either a direct bearing on, or that may be potentially useful in, the evaluation of genetic radiation hazards in man have been examined. Among these are (1) the new data on the incidence of genetic diseases in man; (2) the latest results of the study of mortality rates among children born to survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki; (3) new data on the radiation-induction of reciprocal translocations in human spermatogonia; (4) new results from radiation studies with mice on skeletal mutations, autosomal recessive lethals, sex-chromosome losses, translocation induction and recovery etc., and (5) a re-analysis of the earlier data on dose-rate effects for the induction of specific locus mutations in mouse spermatogonia. Using the pertinent new information as a basis, quantitative estimates are presented employing both a direct method of expressing risks in terms of effects per unit dose of irradiation and the indirect doubling-dose method of expressing these as increments over the load of genetic disorders occurring spontaneously in man.

  10. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances.

    PubMed

    Matthiessen, Peter; Ankley, Gerald T; Biever, Ronald C; Bjerregaard, Poul; Borgert, Christopher; Brugger, Kristin; Blankinship, Amy; Chambers, Janice; Coady, Katherine K; Constantine, Lisa; Dang, Zhichao; Denslow, Nancy D; Dreier, David A; Dungey, Steve; Gray, L Earl; Gross, Melanie; Guiney, Patrick D; Hecker, Markus; Holbech, Henrik; Iguchi, Taisen; Kadlec, Sarah; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Kawashima, Yukio; Kloas, Werner; Krueger, Henry; Kumar, Anu; Lagadic, Laurent; Leopold, Annegaaike; Levine, Steven L; Maack, Gerd; Marty, Sue; Meador, James; Mihaich, Ellen; Odum, Jenny; Ortego, Lisa; Parrott, Joanne; Pickford, Daniel; Roberts, Mike; Schaefers, Christoph; Schwarz, Tamar; Solomon, Keith; Verslycke, Tim; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R; Williams, Mike; Wolf, Jeffrey C; Yamazaki, Kunihiko

    2017-03-01

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop(®) "Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)" was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on 6 endocrine-active substances (EAS-not necessarily proven EDS, but substances known to interact directly with the endocrine system) that are representative of a range of perturbations of the endocrine system and considered to be data rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the ecotoxicological hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve some of the identified issues. The present paper provides broad guidance for scientists in regulatory authorities, industry, and academia on issues likely to arise during the ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of EAS and EDS. The primary conclusion of this paper, and of the SETAC Pellston Workshop on which it is based, is that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk

  11. Evaluation of common genetic variants in 82 candidate genes as risk factors for neural tube defects

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Neural tube defects (NTDs) are common birth defects (~1 in 1000 pregnancies in the US and Europe) that have complex origins, including environmental and genetic factors. A low level of maternal folate is one well-established risk factor, with maternal periconceptional folic acid supplementation reducing the occurrence of NTD pregnancies by 50-70%. Gene variants in the folate metabolic pathway (e.g., MTHFR rs1801133 (677 C > T) and MTHFD1 rs2236225 (R653Q)) have been found to increase NTD risk. We hypothesized that variants in additional folate/B12 pathway genes contribute to NTD risk. Methods A tagSNP approach was used to screen common variation in 82 candidate genes selected from the folate/B12 pathway and NTD mouse models. We initially genotyped polymorphisms in 320 Irish triads (NTD cases and their parents), including 301 cases and 341 Irish controls to perform case–control and family based association tests. Significantly associated polymorphisms were genotyped in a secondary set of 250 families that included 229 cases and 658 controls. The combined results for 1441 SNPs were used in a joint analysis to test for case and maternal effects. Results Nearly 70 SNPs in 30 genes were found to be associated with NTDs at the p < 0.01 level. The ten strongest association signals (p-value range: 0.0003–0.0023) were found in nine genes (MFTC, CDKN2A, ADA, PEMT, CUBN, GART, DNMT3A, MTHFD1 and T (Brachyury)) and included the known NTD risk factor MTHFD1 R653Q (rs2236225). The single strongest signal was observed in a new candidate, MFTC rs17803441 (OR = 1.61 [1.23-2.08], p = 0.0003 for the minor allele). Though nominally significant, these associations did not remain significant after correction for multiple hypothesis testing. Conclusions To our knowledge, with respect to sample size and scope of evaluation of candidate polymorphisms, this is the largest NTD genetic association study reported to date. The scale of the study and the

  12. High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, J.; Silva, A.; Leitão, P.

    2011-08-01

    The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment. Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal), which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami. In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings) in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

  13. A behavioural and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk

    PubMed Central

    Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2010-01-01

    Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single choice contexts there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal pre-determined strategy, irrespective of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously re-evaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of re-evaluating decision utilities, where available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously-acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes. PMID:20980595

  14. Evaluation of nonviral risk factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a high-risk population of Southern China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xiuchan; Johnson, Randall C; Deng, Hong; Liao, Jian; Guan, Li; Nelson, George W; Tang, Mingzhong; Zheng, Yuming; de The, Guy; O'Brien, Stephen J; Winkler, Cheryl A; Zeng, Yi

    2009-06-15

    To understand the role of environmental and genetic influences on nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in populations at high risk of NPC, we have performed a case-control study in Guangxi Province of Southern China in 2004-2005. NPC cases (n = 1,049) were compared with 785 NPC-free matched controls who were seropositive for IgA antibodies (IgA) to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) capsid antigen (VCA)-a predictive marker for NPC in Chinese populations. A questionnaire was used to capture exposure and NPC family history data. Risk factors associated with NPC in a multivariant analysis model were the following: (i) a first, second or third degree relative with NPC [attributable risk (AR)= 6%, odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.0-4.9, p < 0.001]; (ii) consumption of salted fish 3 or more than 3 times per month (AR = 3%, OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.1-3.5, p = 0.035); (iii) exposure to domestic wood cooking fires for more than 10 years (AR = 69%, OR = 5.8, 95% CI = 2.5-13.6, p < 0.001); and (iv) exposure to occupational solvents for 10 or less years (AR = 4%, OR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.4-4.8, p = 0.002). Consumption of preserved meats or a history of tobacco smoking were not associated with NPC (p > 0.05). We also assessed the contribution of EBV/IgA/VCA antibody serostatus to NPC risk-32.2% of NPC can be explained by IgA+ status. However, family history and environmental risk factors cumulatively explained only 2.7% of NPC development in NPC high risk population. These findings should have important public health implications for NPC risk reduction in endemic regions.

  15. Evaluation of endogenous allergens for the safety evaluation of genetically engineered food crops: review of potential risks, test methods, examples and relevance.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Richard E; Panda, Rakhi; Ariyarathna, Harsha

    2013-09-04

    The safety of food produced from genetically engineered (GE) crops is assessed for potential risks of food allergy on the basis of an international consensus guideline outlined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (2003). The assessment focuses on evaluation of the potential allergenicity of the newly expressed protein(s) as the primary potential risk using a process that markedly limits risks to allergic consumers. However, Codex also recommended evaluating a second concern, potential increases in endogenous allergens of commonly allergenic food crops that might occur due to insertion of the gene. Unfortunately, potential risks and natural variation of endogenous allergens in non-GE varieties are not understood, and risks from increases have not been demonstrated. Because regulatory approvals in some countries are delayed due to increasing demands for measuring endogenous allergens, we present a review of the potential risks of food allergy, risk management for food allergy, and test methods that may be used in these evaluations. We also present new data from our laboratory studies on the variation of the allergenic lipid transfer protein in non-GE maize hybrids as well as data from two studies of endogenous allergen comparisons for three GE soybean lines, their nearest genetic soy lines, and other commercial lines. We conclude that scientifically based limits of acceptable variation cannot been established without an understanding of natural variation in non-GE crops. Furthermore, the risks from increased allergen expression are minimal as the risk management strategy for food allergy is for allergic individuals to avoid consuming any food containing their allergenic source, regardless of the crop variety.

  16. The spectral analysis of photoplethysmography to evaluate an independent cardiovascular risk factor

    PubMed Central

    Gandhi, Pratiksha G; Rao, Gundu HR

    2014-01-01

    Background In this study, we evaluate homeostatic markers correlated to autonomic nervous and endothelial functions in a population of coronary artery disease (CAD) patients versus a control group. Since CAD is the highest risk marker for sudden cardiac death, the study objective is to determine whether an independent cardiovascular risk score based on these markers can be used alongside known conventional cardiovascular risk markers to strengthen the understanding of a patient’s vascular state. Materials and methods Sixty-five subjects (13 women) with a mean age of 62.9 years (range 40–80 years) who were diagnosed with CAD using coronary angiography (group 1) and seventy-two subjects (29 women) with a mean age of 45.1 years (range 18–85 years) who claimed they were healthy (group 2) were included in the study. These subjects underwent examination with the TM-Oxi and SudoPath systems at IPC Heart Care Centers in Mumbai, India. The TM-Oxi system takes measurements from a blood pressure device and a pulse oximeter. The SudoPath measures galvanic skin response to assess the sudomotor pathway function. Spectral analysis of the photoplethysmograph (PTG) waveform and electrochemical galvanic skin response allow the TM-Oxi and SudoPath systems to calculate several homeostatic markers, such as the PTG index (PTGi), PTG very low frequency index (PTGVLFi), and PTG ratio (PTGr). The focus of this study was to evaluate these markers (PTGi, PTGVLFi, and PTGr) in CAD patients against a control group, and to calculate an independent cardiovascular risk factor score: the PTG cardiovascular disease risk score (PTG CVD), calculated solely from these markers. We compared PTGi, PTGVLFi, PTGr, and PTG CVD scores between the CAD patient group and the healthy control group. Statistical analyses were performed using receiver operating characteristic curves to determine the specificity and sensitivity of the markers to detect CAD at optimal cutoff values for PTGi, PTGVLFi, PTGr, and

  17. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  18. Evaluation of Hemoglobin A1c Criteria to Assess Preoperative Diabetes Risk in Cardiac Surgery Patients

    PubMed Central

    Saberi, Sima; Zrull, Christina A.; Patil, Preethi V.; Jha, Leena; Kling-Colson, Susan C.; Gandia, Kenia G.; DuBois, Elizabeth C.; Plunkett, Cynthia D.; Bodnar, Tim W.; Pop-Busui, Rodica

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective Hemoglobin A1c (A1C) has recently been recommended for diagnosing diabetes mellitus and diabetes risk (prediabetes). Its performance compared with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h post-glucose load (2HPG) is not well delineated. We compared the performance of A1C with that of FPG and 2HPG in preoperative cardiac surgery patients. Methods Data from 92 patients without a history of diabetes were analyzed. Patients were classified with diabetes or prediabetes using established cutoffs for FPG, 2HPG, and A1C. Sensitivity and specificity of the new A1C criteria were evaluated. Results All patients diagnosed with diabetes by A1C also had impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes by other criteria. Using FPG as the reference, sensitivity and specificity of A1C for diagnosing diabetes were 50% and 96%, and using 2HPG as the reference they were 25% and 95%. Sensitivity and specificity for identifying prediabetes with FPG as the reference were 51% and 51%, respectively, and with 2HPG were 53% and 51%, respectively. One-third each of patients with prediabetes was identified using FPG, A1C, or both. When testing A1C and FPG concurrently, the sensitivity of diagnosing dysglycemia increased to 93% stipulating one or both tests are abnormal; specificity increased to 100% if both tests were required to be abnormal. Conclusions In patients before cardiac surgery, A1C criteria identified the largest number of patients with diabetes and prediabetes. For diagnosing prediabetes, A1C and FPG were discordant and characterized different groups of patients, therefore altering the distribution of diabetes risk. Simultaneous measurement of FGP and A1C may be a more sensitive and specific tool for identifying high-risk individuals with diabetes and prediabetes. PMID:21854260

  19. Tryon Trekkers: An Evaluation of a STEM Based Afterschool Program for At-Risk Youth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckels Anderson, Chessa

    This study contributed to the body of research that supports a holistic model of afterschool learning through the design of an afterschool intervention that benefits elementary school students of low socioeconomic status. This qualitative study evaluated a science focused afterschool curriculum that was designed using principles from Risk and Resiliency Theory, academic motivation theories, science core ideas from the Next Generation Science Standards, and used environmental education philosophy. The research question of this study is: how does an outdoor and STEM based afterschool program impact at-risk students' self-efficacy, belonging and engagement and ability to apply conceptual knowledge of environmental science topics? The study collected information about the participants' affective experiences during the intervention using structured and ethnographic observations and semi-structured interviews. Observations and interviews were coded and analyzed to find patterns in participants' responses. Three participant profiles were developed using the structured observations and ethnographic observations to provide an in depth understanding of the participant experience. The study also assessed the participants' abilities to apply conceptual understanding of the program's science topics by integrating an application of conceptual knowledge task into the curriculum. This task in the form of a participant project was assessed using an adapted version of the Portland Metro STEM Partnership's Application of Conceptual Knowledge Rubric. Results in the study showed that participants demonstrated self-efficacy, a sense of belonging and engagement during the program. Over half of the participants in the study demonstrated a proficient understanding of program concepts. Overall, this holistic afterschool program demonstrated that specific instructional practices and a multi-modal science curriculum helped to support the social and emotional needs of at-risk children.

  20. [Evaluation of the HCR-20 Violence Risk Assessment Scheme in a Belgian forensic population].

    PubMed

    Claix, A; Pham, T-H

    2004-01-01

    Violence risk assessment constitutes a major concern in forensic psychiatry, psychology and related fields. Numerous instruments like the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R, Hare, 1991) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) have been developed in the aim of improving precision in the prediction of violence. This study assesses the reliability index of the HCR-20 Violence Risk Assessment Scheme and evaluates its relationship with the PCL-R the Buss and Perry's self-report Aggression Questionnaire (AQ) and the type of offenses officially registered. All participants (n=86) are male adult offenders detained in a Belgian high-security forensic hospital. The mean IQ and age were respectively, 81,03 and 36,71. Items common to these instruments were omitted in order to avoid a circular effect. Results showed that the HCR-20 was significantly related to the PCL-R: the historical factor was strongly correlated to the PCL-R factor 2 while the clinical factor was strongly correlated to the PCL-R factor 1. The HCR-20 was significantly related to the AQ: the historical factor was strongly correlated to the AQ Physical Aggression factor and to the Anger factor. As regards to the HCR-20 relations with offenses, its Historical factor was related to both violent (assault and battery, robbery) and non-violent offenses (drug offenses, theft). Finally, the HCR-20 was also positively related to "instrumental" and rather premeditated homicide but negatively related to psychotic homicide. The overall findings are congruent with -published data on the convergent validity of the HCR-20.

  1. [Prenatal risk calculation: comparison between Fast Screen pre I plus software and ViewPoint software. Evaluation of the risk calculation algorithms].

    PubMed

    Morin, Jean-François; Botton, Eléonore; Jacquemard, François; Richard-Gireme, Anouk

    2013-01-01

    The Fetal medicine foundation (FMF) has developed a new algorithm called Prenatal Risk Calculation (PRC) to evaluate Down syndrome screening based on free hCGβ, PAPP-A and nuchal translucency. The peculiarity of this algorithm is to use the degree of extremeness (DoE) instead of the multiple of the median (MoM). The biologists measuring maternal seric markers on Kryptor™ machines (Thermo Fisher Scientific) use Fast Screen pre I plus software for the prenatal risk calculation. This software integrates the PRC algorithm. Our study evaluates the data of 2.092 patient files of which 19 show a fœtal abnormality. These files have been first evaluated with the ViewPoint software based on MoM. The link between DoE and MoM has been analyzed and the different calculated risks compared. The study shows that Fast Screen pre I plus software gives the same risk results as ViewPoint software, but yields significantly fewer false positive results.

  2. Interactive Decision Support for Risk Management: a Qualitative Evaluation in Cancer Genetic Counselling Sessions

    PubMed Central

    Oettinger, Ayelet; Braithwaite, Dejana; Fox, John

    2010-01-01

    Genetic counselling for inherited susceptibility to cancer involves communication of a significant amount of information about possible consequences of different interventions. This study explores counsellors' attitudes to computer software designed to aid this process. Eight genetic counsellors used the software with actors playing patients. Clinicians' rating of expected patient satisfaction, content, accuracy, timeliness, format, overall value, ease of use, effect on the patient–provider relationship and effect on clinician's performance were evaluated via qualitative and quantitative analysis of interviews, training tasks and questionnaires. Most counsellors found the software effective. Concerns related to possible impact on consultation dynamics and content. Participants suggested countering these through appropriate new counselling skills and selective use of the computer. The REACT software could provide effective support for genetic risk management counselling. PMID:20162470

  3. Remote Sensing and Modeling of Landslides: Detection, Monitoring and Risk Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Fukuoka, Hiroshi

    2012-01-01

    Landslides are one of the most pervasive hazards in the world, resulting in more fatalities and economic damage than is generally recognized_ Occurring over an extensive range of lithologies, morphologies, hydrologies, and climates, mass movements can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall, seismicity, freeze/thaw processes, and antbropogertic activities, among other factors. The location, size, and timing of these processes are characteristically difficult to predict and assess because of their localized spatial scales, distribution, and complex interactions between rainfall infiltration, hydromechanical properties of the soil, and the underlying surface composition. However, the increased availability, accessibility, and resolution of remote sensing data offer a new opportunity to explore issues of landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk over a variety of spatial scales. This special issue presents a series of papers that investigate the sources, behavior, and impacts of different mass movement types using a diverse set of data sources and evaluation methodologies.

  4. Evaluation of Malnutrition Risk after Liver Transplantation Using the Nutritional Screening Tools.

    PubMed

    Lim, Hee-Sook; Kim, Hyung-Chul; Park, Yoon-Hyung; Kim, Soon-Kyung

    2015-10-01

    Malnutrition is a common problem in patients with end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate nutritional status by using nutritional screening tools [Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)] in patients before and after liver transplantation. We analyzed medical record, blood test, nutrient intake and malnutrition rate just before transplantation and at discharge, and at 3, 6, 12 months after transplantation respectively. Initially 33 patients enrolled as study subjects and finally 28 patients completed the study. Nutrients intake such as energy, fiber, calcium, potassium, vitamin C, and folate were insufficient at 12 months after transplantation. The rates of malnutrition before transplantation were very high, reported at 81.8% for the NRS 2002, 87.9% for the MUST, and 84.8% for the SGA. By 12 months after operation, malnutrition rates reported at NRS, MUST and SGA had decreased to 6.1%, 10.7%, and 10.7%, respectively. Sensitivity was 87.1% for the NRS 2002, 82.0% for the MUST, and 92.0% for the SGA. Of these screening tools the SGA was the highest sensitive tool that predict the risk of mortality in malnutrition patients who received transplantation. Further studies on nutritional status of patients and proper tools for nutrition intervention are needed to provide adequate nutritional care for patients.

  5. Evaluation of Malnutrition Risk after Liver Transplantation Using the Nutritional Screening Tools

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Hee-Sook; Kim, Hyung-Chul; Park, Yoon-Hyung

    2015-01-01

    Malnutrition is a common problem in patients with end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate nutritional status by using nutritional screening tools [Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)] in patients before and after liver transplantation. We analyzed medical record, blood test, nutrient intake and malnutrition rate just before transplantation and at discharge, and at 3, 6, 12 months after transplantation respectively. Initially 33 patients enrolled as study subjects and finally 28 patients completed the study. Nutrients intake such as energy, fiber, calcium, potassium, vitamin C, and folate were insufficient at 12 months after transplantation. The rates of malnutrition before transplantation were very high, reported at 81.8% for the NRS 2002, 87.9% for the MUST, and 84.8% for the SGA. By 12 months after operation, malnutrition rates reported at NRS, MUST and SGA had decreased to 6.1%, 10.7%, and 10.7%, respectively. Sensitivity was 87.1% for the NRS 2002, 82.0% for the MUST, and 92.0% for the SGA. Of these screening tools the SGA was the highest sensitive tool that predict the risk of mortality in malnutrition patients who received transplantation. Further studies on nutritional status of patients and proper tools for nutrition intervention are needed to provide adequate nutritional care for patients. PMID:26566519

  6. Dissolved Concentrations, Sources, and Risk Evaluation of Selected Metals in Surface Water from Mangla Lake, Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Saleem, Muhammad; Iqbal, Javed; Shah, Munir H.

    2014-01-01

    The present study is carried out for the assessment of water quality parameters and selected metals levels in surface water from Mangla Lake, Pakistan. The metal levels (Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn) were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average levels of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb were higher than the allowable concentrations set by national and international agencies. Principal component analysis indicated significant anthropogenic contributions of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb in the water reservoir. Noncarcinogenic risk assessment was then evaluated using Hazard Quotient (HQing/derm) and Hazard Index (HIing/derm) following USEPA methodology. For adults and children, Cd, Co, Cr, and Pb (HQing > 1) emerged as the most important pollutants leading to noncarcinogenic concerns via ingestion route, whereas there was no risk via dermal contact of surface water. This study helps in establishing pollutant loading reduction goal and the total maximum daily loads, and consequently contributes to preserve public health and develop water conservation strategy. PMID:24744690

  7. Investigating population risk factors of pancreatic cancer by evaluation of optical markers in the duodenal mucosa.

    PubMed

    Turzhitsky, Vladimir; Liu, Yang; Hasabou, Nahla; Goldberg, Michael; Roy, Hemant K; Backman, Vadim; Brand, Randall

    2008-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer screening has been hampered by the high rate of complications associated with interrogating the pancreas. The closest non-invasively accessible mucosa available for pancreatic cancer screening is the periampullary duodenal tissue. Our earlier report has shown the potential of using optical markers to interrogate this tissue for the presence of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we report a larger data set of low-coherence enhanced backscattering (LEBS) and elastic light scattering fingerprinting (ELF) optical markers from the periampullary duodenal mucosa. Optical measurements from biopsy samples were acquired from a total of 203 patients with varying clinical classification including healthy controls, a family history of pancreatic cancer, pancreatitis, mucinous cystic precursor lesions, pancreatic cancer, and other pancreatic malignancies. Evaluation of the performance of an independent testing set for discriminating healthy control patients from pancreatic cancer patients showed a 95% sensitivity, 71% specificity, and 85% area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Importantly, this performance was uncompromised for detecting potentially curable stages of the disease. Additionally, optical markers in higher risk populations such as family history and pancreatitis had values between those of healthy control and pancreatic cancer patients, thus allowing for future investigations of screening from these high risk groups.

  8. Evaluation of core cultivation practices to reduce ecological risk of pesticides in runoff from Agrostis palustris.

    PubMed

    Rice, Pamela J; Horgan, Brian P; Rittenhouse, Jennifer L

    2010-06-01

    Pesticides associated with the turfgrass industry have been detected in storm runoff and surface waters of urban watersheds, invoking concern of their potential environmental effects and a desire to reduce their transport to nontarget locations. Quantities of chlorpyrifos, dicamba, dimethylamine salt of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), flutolanil, and mecoprop-p (MCPP) transported in runoff from bentgrass (Agrostis palustris) fairway turf managed with solid tine (ST) or hollow tine (HT) core cultivation were compared to determine which cultivation practice is more efficient at mitigating environmental risk. Plots receiving HT core cultivation showed a 10 and 55% reduction in runoff volume and a 15 to 57% reduction in pesticide transport with runoff at 63 d and 2 d following core cultivation. Estimated environmental concentrations of the pesticides in a surface water receiving runoff from turf managed with ST core cultivation exceeded the median lethal concentration (LC50) or median effective concentration (EC50) of nine aquatic organisms evaluated. Replacing ST core cultivation with HT core cultivation reduced surface water concentrations of the pesticides to levels below the LC50 and EC50 for most these aquatic organisms, lessening risk associated with pesticides in runoff from the fairway turf. Results of the present research provide quantitative information that will allow for informed decisions on cultural practices that can maximize pesticide retention at the site of application, improving pest control in turf while minimizing environmental contamination and adverse effects associated with the off-site transport of pesticides.

  9. Health risks of electromagnetic fields. Part II: Evaluation and assessment of radio frequency radiation.

    PubMed

    Habash, Riadh W Y; Brodsky, Lynn M; Leiss, William; Krewski, Daniel; Repacholi, Michael

    2003-01-01

    The increasing use of different radio frequency (RF)-emitting devices in residential and occupational settings has raised concerns about possible health effects of RF energy emitted by such devices. The debate about the potential risks associated with RF fields will persist with the prevalent network-connected wireless products and services targeting the marketplace for all kinds of consumer use. The aim of this article is to provide biomedical researchers with a review and critical evaluation of the current literature on acute and long-term health risks associated with RF radiation (RFR). Issues examined include safety standards for RFR; dosimetry and measurement surveys; and toxicological, epidemiological, and clinical studies of health outcomes that may be associated with RFR. Overall, the existing evidence for a causal relationship between RFR and adverse health effects is limited. Additional research is needed to clarify possible associations between RFR and biological effects noted in some studies. Particular attention should be directed toward long-term, low-level exposure to RFR.

  10. Magnetocardiography in the evaluation of fetuses at risk for sudden cardiac death before birth

    PubMed Central

    Cuneo, Bettina F.; Strasburger, Janette F.; Wakai, Ronald T.

    2012-01-01

    Background We hypothesized that fetuses at risk for sudden death may have abnormal conduction or depolarization, ischemia, or abnormal heart rate variability (HRV) detectable by magnetocardiography. Methods Using a 37-channel biomagnetometer, we evaluated 3 groups of fetuses at risk for sudden death: group 1, critical aortic stenosis (AS); group 2, arrhythmias; and group 3, heart failure and in utero demise. Five to 10 recordings of 10-minute duration were recorded, and signal was averaged to determine rhythm, conduction intervals, HRV, and T-wave morphology. Results In group 1, 2 of 3 had atrial and ventricular strain patterns. In (n = 53) group 2, 15% had prolonged QTc and 17% had T-wave alternans (TWA). Of 23 group 2 fetuses with atrioventricular block, 74% had ventricular ectopy, 21% had junctional ectopic tachycardia, and 29% had ventricular tachycardia. Group 3 (n = 2) had abnormal HRV and TWA. Conclusion Repolarization abnormalities, unexpected arrhythmias, and abnormal HRV suggest an arrhythmogenic mechanism for “sudden cardiac death before birth.” PMID:18328335

  11. Evaluation of a personal device in reducing the risk of low back disorders during stooped work.

    PubMed

    Ulrey, Brent L; Fathallah, Fadi A

    2012-01-01

    Adoption of the stooped posture in the workplace is widespread throughout the world in agriculture, construction, and mining. This type of posture has been established as a risk factor for developing low back disorders (LBDs). The purpose of this study is to evaluate a personal weight transfer device as a possible intervention to reduce the load on the lumbar spine, thereby reducing the risk of developing LBDs. Eighteen healthy subjects performed stooped posture tasks in a laboratory study designed to simulate harvesting of low-growing crops. Results showed that when wearing the device in the static stooped posture, biceps femoris activity was reduced by 17%, lumbar flexion was reduced by 12%, ankle plantar-flexion increased by 5%, and the lumbar erector spinae of those subjects who did not experience flexion-relaxation of the erector spinae was reduced by 26%. Hip and knee flexion were not significantly altered. Therefore, the device may be beneficial for those with existing LBDs, and who use the stooped posture routinely.

  12. Evaluation of injection well risk management potential in the Williston Basin

    SciTech Connect

    1989-09-01

    The UIC regulations promulgated by the EPA under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) provide the EPA, or an EPA approved state agency, with authority to regulate subsurface injection of fluids to protect USDWs. Oil and gas producing industry interests are concerned primarily with Class 2 wells whose uses as defined by UIC regulations are: disposal of fluids brought to the surface and liquids generated in connection with oil and gas production (SWD); injection of fluids for enhanced oil recovery (EOR); and storage of liquid hydrocarbons. The Williston Basin was chosen for the pilot study of the feasibility of using the risk approach in managing Class 2 injection operations for the following reasons: it is one of the nine geologic basins which was classified as having a significant potential for external casing corrosion, which permitted an evaluation of the effectiveness of the injection well corrosion control measures used by industry; there are 731 active, 22 shut in and 203 temporarily abandoned SWD and water injection wells in the basin; and the basin covers three states. The broad objective of the Williston Basin study is to define requirements and to investigate the feasibility of incorporating risk management into administration of the UIC program. The study does not address the reporting aspects of UIC regulatory and compliance activities but the data base does contain essentially all the information required to develop the reports needed to monitor those activities. 16 refs., 10 figs., 11 tabs.

  13. Evaluating the technical feasibility of aflatoxin risk reduction strategies in Africa.

    PubMed

    Wu, Felicia; Khlangwiset, Pornsri

    2010-05-01

    Public health interventions must be readily accepted by their target populations to have any meaningful impact and must have financial and infrastructural support to be feasible in the parts of the world where they are most needed. At the same time, these interventions must be assessed for potential unintended consequences, either to the environment or to human health. In this paper, we evaluate the technical feasibility of interventions to control aflatoxin risk, to be potentially deployed in parts of Africa where aflatoxin exposure poses a significant public health concern. We have applied a conceptual framework for feasibility to four interventions, one associated with each of four different stages of aflatoxin risk: biocontrol (pre-harvest), a post-harvest intervention package (post-harvest), NovaSil clay (dietary), and hepatitis B vaccination (clinical). For each intervention, we have assessed the following four components of technical feasibility: (1) characteristics of the basic intervention, (2) characteristics of delivery, (3) requirements on government capacity, and (4) usage characteristics. We propose ways in which feasibility of each intervention is currently high or low from the perspective of adoption in Africa, how public education is crucial for each of these interventions to succeed, and how to align economic incentives to make the interventions more suitable for less developed countries.

  14. Fate and risk evaluation of persistent organic contaminants and related compounds in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Connell, D W; Wu, R S; Richardson, B J; Leung, K; Lam, P S; Connell, P A

    1998-04-01

    The Environment Protection Department of Hong Kong has a monitoring program for persistent organic contaminants in sediments of Victoria Harbour, the main harbour of Hong Kong. A fugacity model has been used, based on this sedimentary data, to estimate inputs to the system (probably from sewage, stormwater and industrial discharges) as well as the fate of the contaminants, particularly in terms of the aqueous and biotic concentrations. The risk of deleterious effects on the natural marine system, as well as on the consumers of seafood from the system, was carried out using the estimated aqueous and biotic concentrations together with accepted environmental quality guidelines. The result of our analysis indicated that the chlorohydrocarbons, PCBs (as Aroclor 1254) total DDT and total HCH pose a significant risk, and probably have caused damage to the marine ecosystem as well as posing a hazard to seafood consumers. Much higher concentrations of the less toxic total alkanes, nonaromatic hydrocarbons, linear alkyl benzenes and the compounds giving a unresolved complex mixture (UCM) cannot be evaluated due to a lack of environmental guidelines and the complexity of these substances. However, it is probable that these substances add adverse effects to those due to the other contaminants.

  15. Quantitative Evaluation of the Mechanical Risks Caused by Focal Cartilage Defects in the Knee

    PubMed Central

    Venäläinen, Mikko S.; Mononen, Mika E.; Salo, Jari; Räsänen, Lasse P.; Jurvelin, Jukka S.; Töyräs, Juha; Virén, Tuomas; Korhonen, Rami K.

    2016-01-01

    Focal cartilage lesions can proceed to severe osteoarthritis or remain unaltered even for years. A method to identify high risk defects would be of utmost importance to guide clinical decision making and to identify the patients that are at the highest risk for the onset and progression of osteoarthritis. Based on cone beam computed tomography arthrography, we present a novel computational model for evaluating changes in local mechanical responses around cartilage defects. Our model, based on data obtained from a human knee in vivo, demonstrated that the most substantial alterations around the defect, as compared to the intact tissue, were observed in minimum principal (compressive) strains and shear strains. Both strain values experienced up to 3-fold increase, exceeding levels previously associated with chondrocyte apoptosis and failure of collagen crosslinks. Furthermore, defects at the central regions of medial tibial cartilage with direct cartilage-cartilage contact were the most vulnerable to loading. Also locations under the meniscus experienced substantially increased minimum principal strains. We suggest that during knee joint loading particularly minimum principal and shear strains are increased above tissue failure limits around cartilage defects which might lead to osteoarthritis. However, this increase in strains is highly location-specific on the joint surface. PMID:27897156

  16. Evaluating the technical feasibility of aflatoxin risk reduction strategies in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Felicia; Khlangwiset, Pornsri

    2010-01-01

    Public health interventions must be readily accepted by their target populations to have any meaningful impact, and must have financial and infrastructural support to be feasible in the parts of the world where they are most needed. At the same time, these interventions must be assessed for potential unintended consequences, either to the environment or to human health. In this paper, we evaluate the technical feasibility of interventions to control aflatoxin risk, to be potentially deployed in parts of Africa where aflatoxin exposure poses a significant public health concern. We have applied a conceptual framework for feasibility to four interventions, one associated with each of four different stages of aflatoxin risk: biocontrol (pre-harvest), a post-harvest intervention package (post-harvest), NovaSil clay (dietary), and hepatitis B vaccination (clinical). For each intervention, we have assessed the following four components of technical feasibility: 1) characteristics of the basic intervention, 2) characteristics of delivery, 3) requirements on government capacity, and 4) usage characteristics. We propose ways in which feasibility of each intervention is currently high or low from the perspective of adoption in Africa, how public education is crucial for each of these interventions to succeed, and how to align economic incentives to make the interventions more suitable for less developed countries. PMID:20455160

  17. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  18. Health risk evaluations for ingestion exposure of humans to polonium-210.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bobby R

    2007-04-20

    The incident in London during November 2006 involving a lethal intake by Mr. Alexander Litvinenko of the highly-radioactive, alpha-particles-emitting polonium-210 (Po-210) isotope, presumably via ingestion, sparked renewed interest in the area of Po-210 toxicity to humans. This paper is the result of assembling and interpreting existing Po-210 data within the context of what is considered a reliable risk model (hazard-function [HF] model) for characterizing the risk of death from deterministic effects of high alpha radiation doses and dose rates to body organs. The HF model was developed to address radiation exposure scenarios involving combined exposures to alpha, beta, and gamma radiations and can be used in circumstances where only one type of radiation is involved. Under a plausible but not yet validated set of assumptions and using available megabecquerel (Po-210) to gray dose-conversion factors, acute lethality risk vs. dose curves were developed for circumstances of ingestion exposure to Po-210 by humans. Initial risk calculations were carried out for a reference adult male human (a hypothetical 70-kg person). Results were then modified for application to all ages (except the in utero child) via the use of systemic Po-210 burden. Because of the unavailability of acute lethality data derived from human ingestions of high levels of Po-210, plausibility of risk calculations were evaluated based on data from studies of Po-210 injections in animals. The animal data, although limited, were found to be consistent with the theoretical risk calculations. Key findings are as follows: (1) ingestion (or inhalation) of a few tents of a milligram of Po-210 will likely be fatal to all exposed persons. (2) Lethal intakes are expected to involve fatal damage to the bone marrow which is likely to be compounded by damage caused by higher doses to other organs including the kidneys and liver. (3) Lethal intakes are expected to cause severe damage to the kidney, spleen, stomach

  19. Accuracy of clinical techniques for evaluating lower limb sensorimotor functions associated with increased fall risk

    PubMed Central

    Donaghy, Alex; DeMott, Trina; Allet, Lara; Kim, Hogene; Ashton-Miller, James; Richardson, James K.

    2015-01-01

    Background In prior work laboratory-based measures of hip motor function and ankle proprioceptive precision were critical to maintaining unipedal stance and fall/fall-related injury risk. However, the optimal clinical evaluation techniques for predicting these measures are unknown. Objective To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of common clinical maneuvers in predicting laboratory-based measures of frontal plane hip rate of torque development (HipRTD) and ankle proprioceptive thresholds (AnkPRO) associated with increased fall risk. Design Prospective, observational study. Setting Biomechanical research laboratory. Participants Forty-one older subjects (age 69.1 ± 8.3 years), 25 with varying degrees of diabetic distal symmetric polyneuropathy and 16 without. Assessments Clinical hip strength was evaluated by manual muscle testing (MMT) and lateral plank time (LPT), defined as the number seconds the laterally lying subject could lift hips from the support surface. Foot/ankle evaluation included Achilles reflex, and vibratory, proprioceptive, monofilament, and pinprick sensations at the great toe. Main Outcome Measures HipRTD, abduction and adduction, using a custom whole-body dynamometer. AnkPRO determined with subjects standing using a foot cradle system and a staircase series of 100 frontal plane rotational stimuli. Results Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves revealed that LPT correlated more strongly with HipRTD (r/p = .61/<.001 and .67/<.001, for abductor/adductor, respectively) than did hip abductor MMT (r/p = .31/.044). Subjects with greater vibratory and proprioceptive sensation, and intact Achilles reflexes, monofilament, and pin sensation had more precise AnkPRO. LPT of < 12 seconds yielded a sensitivity/specificity of 91%/80% for identifying HipRTD < .25 (body size in Newton-meters), and vibratory perception of < 8 seconds yielded a sensitivity/specificity of 94%/80% for the identification of AnkPRO > 1

  20. Hypothesis-based weight-of-evidence evaluation and risk assessment for naphthalene carcinogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Lisa A.; Nascarella, Marc A.; Kerper, Laura E.; Rhomberg, Lorenz R.

    2016-01-01

    Inhalation of naphthalene causes olfactory epithelial nasal tumors in rats (but not in mice) and benign lung adenomas in mice (but not in rats). The limited available human data have not identified an association between naphthalene exposure and increased respiratory cancer risk. Assessing naphthalene's carcinogenicity in humans, therefore, depends entirely on experimental evidence from rodents. We evaluated the respiratory carcinogenicity of naphthalene in rodents, and its potential relevance to humans, using our Hypothesis-Based Weight-of-Evidence (HBWoE) approach. We systematically and comparatively reviewed data relevant to key elements in the hypothesized modes of action (MoA) to determine which is best supported by the available data, allowing all of the data from each realm of investigation to inform interpretation of one another. Our analysis supports a mechanism that involves initial metabolism of naphthalene to the epoxide, followed by GSH depletion, cytotoxicity, chronic inflammation, regenerative hyperplasia, and tumor formation, with possible weak genotoxicity from downstream metabolites occurring only at high cytotoxic doses, strongly supporting a non-mutagenic threshold MoA in the rat nose. We also conducted a dose–response analysis, based on the likely MoA, which suggests that the rat nasal MoA is not relevant in human respiratory tissues at typical environmental exposures. Our analysis illustrates how a thorough WoE evaluation can be used to support a MoA, even when a mechanism of action cannot be fully elucidated. A non-mutagenic threshold MoA for naphthalene-induced rat nasal tumors should be considered as a basis to determine human relevance and to guide regulatory and risk-management decisions. PMID:26202831

  1. Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Douglas C.; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I.; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P.; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework’s roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723

  2. Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Douglas C; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-01-01

    The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework's roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization.

  3. Research on Slope Disaster Risk Evaluation Considering the Hydrologic Processes throughout the Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakatsugawa, M.; Usutani, T.

    2014-12-01

    This study addresses risk evaluation for slope disasters based on watershed-wide estimations of soil moisture resulting from long-term hydrologic processes. Slope disasters have recently occurred throughout Japan due to heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt. Climate change is expected to exacerbate such disasters in snowy regions, due to global warming. The quantitative evaluation of landslide risk such as that which has occurred at Nakayama Pass in Sapporo, Northern Japan, during the snowmelt season has remained an issue. A method for determining the soil moisture at potential slope disaster sites was proposed and applied to the Nakayama Pass disaster. The investigation site is on Route 230 connecting Sapporo, the capital of Hokkaido Prefecture, to Southern Hokkaido. This site is in the Hoheikyo Dam watershed and thus is influenced by its hydrologic characteristics. We propose a method to quantitatively estimate soil moisture, which is an important factor in slope disasters, by using the storage for each mesh as estimated in the distributed hydrologic model of the watershed. In this hydrologic model, snowmelt is estimated on the basis of the heat balance between the snowpack layer and the atmosphere. The storage in each 1-km by 1-km mesh is estimated as the water level of the tank model when rainfall and snowmelt are provided. Then, the total outflow from the watershed is estimated by synthesizing the outflow for each mesh using a channel routing method based on kinematic waves. The validity of the estimated storage is indirectly confirmed by the reproducibility of total outflow from the dam catchment that includes the disaster point. Storage amount at the disaster site was estimated by using the proposed method. It was found that the landslides of 2012 and 2000 occurred at the condition of maximum storage resulting from heavy rainfall, combined with snowmelt. Thus, this study suggested that the storage amount which consists of hydrologic cycle in a catchment area

  4. Road safety risk evaluation and target setting using data envelopment analysis and its extensions.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yongjun; Hermans, Elke; Brijs, Tom; Wets, Geert; Vanhoof, Koen

    2012-09-01

    Currently, comparison between countries in terms of their road safety performance is widely conducted in order to better understand one's own safety situation and to learn from those best-performing countries by indicating practical targets and formulating action programmes. In this respect, crash data such as the number of road fatalities and casualties are mostly investigated. However, the absolute numbers are not directly comparable between countries. Therefore, the concept of risk, which is defined as the ratio of road safety outcomes and some measure of exposure (e.g., the population size, the number of registered vehicles, or distance travelled), is often used in the context of benchmarking. Nevertheless, these risk indicators are not consistent in most cases. In other words, countries may have different evaluation results or ranking positions using different exposure information. In this study, data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a performance measurement technique is investigated to provide an overall perspective on a country's road safety situation, and further assess whether the road safety outcomes registered in a country correspond to the numbers that can be expected based on the level of exposure. In doing so, three model extensions are considered, which are the DEA based road safety model (DEA-RS), the cross-efficiency method, and the categorical DEA model. Using the measures of exposure to risk as the model's input and the number of road fatalities as output, an overall road safety efficiency score is computed for the 27 European Union (EU) countries based on the DEA-RS model, and the ranking of countries in accordance with their cross-efficiency scores is evaluated. Furthermore, after applying clustering analysis to group countries with inherent similarity in their practices, the categorical DEA-RS model is adopted to identify best-performing and underperforming countries in each cluster, as well as the reference sets or benchmarks for those

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  6. Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability criteria for the evaluation of Human Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.; Bolster, D.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impact of water quality on the health of a general population is challenging due high degrees of uncertainty and variability in hydrological, toxicological and human aspects of the system. Assessment of the impact of changes in water quality of a public water supply is critical to management of that water supply. We propose the use of three different system evaluation criteria: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) as a tool for assessing the impact of uncertainty in the arrival of contaminant mass through time with respect to human health risks on a variable population. These criteria were first introduced to the water resources community by Hashimoto et al (1982). Most simply one can understand these criteria as the following: Reliability is the likelihood of the system being in a state of success; Resilience is the probability that the system will return to a state of success at t+1 if it is in failure at time step t, and Vulnerability is the severity of failure, which here is defined as the maximum health risk. These concepts are applied to a theoretical example where the water quality at a water supply well varies over time: health impact is considered based on sliding, 30-year windows of exposure to water derived from the well. We apply the methodology, in terms of uncertainty in water quality deviations, to eight simulated breakthrough curves of a contaminant at the well: each curve represents equal mass of contaminant arriving at the well over a 70-year lifetime of the well, but different mass distributions over time. These curves are used to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the distribution through time of the contaminant mass at the well, as well as the initial arrival of the contaminant over the 70-year lifetime of the well. In addition to extending the health risk through time with uncertainty in mass distribution, we incorporate variability in the human population to examine the evolution of the three criteria within

  7. Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

    2009-12-20

    This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.

  8. Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-01

    The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

  9. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella

    PubMed Central

    Guentchev, Galina S.; Rood, Richard B.; Ammann, Caspar M.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971–2000—a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. PMID:26938544

  10. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella.

    PubMed

    Guentchev, Galina S; Rood, Richard B; Ammann, Caspar M; Barsugli, Joseph J; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Vigh, Jonathan L; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-02-29

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971-2000--a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections.

  11. Prototypic Enhanced Risk Monitor Framework and Evaluation - Advanced Reactor Technology Milestone: M3AT-15PN2301054

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, X.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.; Brass, Mary F.

    2015-09-24

    This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real-time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA)will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipment condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.

  12. Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of

  13. If You Do Not Ask, They Will Not Tell: Evaluating Pregnancy Risk in Young Women in Pediatric Hospitals.

    PubMed

    Coles, Mandy S; Lau, May; Akers, Aletha Y

    2016-03-01

    Adolescents experience some of the highest rates of unintended pregnancy among women of all reproductive age groups. And despite the fact that adolescents often receive care in pediatric hospital settings, evaluation of pregnancy risk is inconsistent. Pregnancy risk assessments can identify opportunities to deliver reproductive health services, allow earlier pregnancy diagnoses, and reduce morbidity and mortality for medically complex adolescent patients and their pregnancies. In this commentary we discuss some of the challenges and potential solutions to performing pregnancy risk assessments in pediatric hospital settings.

  14. An Interactive Website to Reduce Sexual Risk Behavior: Process Evaluation of TeensTalkHealth

    PubMed Central

    Sieving, Renee E; Terveen, Loren G; Rosser, BR Simon; Kodet, Amy J; Rothberg, Vienna D

    2015-01-01

    Background Different theoretical frameworks support the use of interactive websites to promote sexual health. Although several Web-based interventions have been developed to address sexual risk taking among young people, no evaluated interventions have attempted to foster behavior change through moderated interaction among a virtual network of adolescents (who remain anonymous to one another) and health professionals. Objective The objective was to conduct a summative process evaluation of TeensTalkHealth, an interactive sexual health website designed to promote condom use and other healthy decision making in the context of romantic and sexual relationships. Methods Evaluation data were obtained from 147 adolescents who participated in a feasibility and acceptability study. Video vignettes, teen-friendly articles, and other content served as conversation catalysts between adolescents and health educators on message boards. Results Adolescents’ perceptions that the website encouraged condom use across a variety of relationship situations were very high. Almost 60% (54/92, 59%) of intervention participants completed two-thirds or more of requested tasks across the 4-month intervention. Adolescents reported high levels of comfort, perceived privacy, ease of website access and use, and perceived credibility of health educators. Potential strategies to enhance engagement and completion of intervention tasks during future implementations of TeensTalkHealth are discussed, including tailoring of content, periodic website chats with health educators and anonymous peers, and greater incorporation of features from popular social networking websites. Conclusions TeensTalkHealth is a feasible, acceptable, and promising approach to complement and enhance existing services for youth. PMID:26336157

  15. Social appearance anxiety, perfectionism, and fear of negative evaluation: distinct or shared risk factors for social anxiety and eating disorders?

    PubMed

    Levinson, Cheri A; Rodebaugh, Thomas L; White, Emily K; Menatti, Andrew R; Weeks, Justin W; Iacovino, Juliette M; Warren, Cortney S

    2013-08-01

    Social anxiety and eating disorders are highly comorbid. Social appearance anxiety (i.e., fear of negative evaluation of one's appearance), general fear of negative evaluation, and perfectionism have each been proposed as risk factors for both social anxiety disorder and the eating disorders. However, no research to date has examined all three factors simultaneously. Using structural equation modeling in two diverse samples (N=236; N=136) we tested a model in which each of these risk factors were uniquely associated with social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms. We found support for social appearance anxiety as a shared risk factor between social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms, whereas fear of negative evaluation was a risk factor only for social anxiety symptoms. Despite significant zero-order relationships, two facets of perfectionism (high standards and maladaptive perfectionism) did not emerge as a risk factor for either disorder when all constructs were considered. These results were maintained when gender, body mass index, trait negative affect, and depression were included in the model. It is possible that treating negative appearance evaluation fears may reduce both eating disorder and social anxiety symptoms.

  16. [Risk assessment and safety evaluation using system normative indexes integration method for non-point source pollution on watershed scale].

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian-Chang; Yan, Yan; Liu, Feng; Ding, Ding; Zhao, Ming

    2008-03-01

    Decision-makers take non-point source pollution under control as well as possible results from enough information of risk trend of nonpoint source pollution on watershed scale. System normative indexes integration evaluation method about system risk trend was developed when focusing on that the probability values of some elements attributing to some trend of the system were more than one, and that the system evaluation needed a formula from the system structure. On the basis of analysis on aspects and characteristics of the system risk normalization, a new valuation method, the relationship between the normalization values of the system and the factors was established. The Lugu Lake Watershed in Southwest China was selected as study area to assess the risk of non-point source loss to surface water using this method. The results indicate that 1) the wholly risk of non-point source loss to surface water in this watershed is in a high level; 2) the system indexes integration evaluation method is an universal method to evaluate a quality or a trend of any system and shows a great power in comparing several systems; 3) the method is helpful to attain an effective and integrated assessment on a system when it is combined with other methods.

  17. Long-term risk in a recently active volcanic system: Evaluation of doses and indoor radiological risk in the quaternary Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capaccioni, B.; Cinelli, G.; Mostacci, D.; Tositti, L.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic rocks in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy) contain high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K due to subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust. Due to their favorable mechanical properties they have been extensively used for construction since the Etruscan age. In the old buildings of the Bolsena village, one of the most populated ancient village in the area, the major source of indoor radioactivity is 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendant of 238U. Direct 222Rn indoor measurements have detected extremely high values in the old center due to the combined effect of building materials, radon fluxes from the volcanic basement and low air exchange rates. In these cases the evaluated risk of developing lung cancer within a 75 year lifetime reaches up to 40% for ever smokers. Simulations of "standard rooms" built with different tuffs and lavas collected from the Vulsini Volcanic District have also provided estimations of the effective doses and lifetime risk for radiogenic cancer. Other than by the method adopted for calculation, the total evaluated risk for each volcanic rock depends on different parameters, such as: radionuclide content, radon emanation power, occupancy factor and air exchange rate. Occupancy factor and air exchange rate appear as the only controlling parameters able to mitigate the indoor radiological risk.

  18. Evaluation of Human Papillomavirus Antibodies and Risk of Subsequent Head and Neck Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kreimer, Aimée R.; Johansson, Mattias; Waterboer, Tim; Kaaks, Rudolf; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Drogen, Dagmar; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Quirós, J. Ramón; González, Carlos A.; Sánchez, Maria José; Larrañaga, Nerea; Navarro, Carmen; Barricarte, Aurelio; Travis, Ruth C.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Peeters, Petra H.M.; Panico, Salvatore; Masala, Giovanna; Grioni, Sara; Tumino, Rosario; Vineis, Paolo; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Laurell, Göran; Hallmans, Göran; Manjer, Jonas; Ekström, Johanna; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Ferrari, Pietro; Byrnes, Graham; Romieu, Isabelle; Riboli, Elio; Hildesheim, Allan; Boeing, Heiner; Pawlita, Michael; Brennan, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infection is causing an increasing number of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States and Europe. The aim of our study was to investigate whether HPV antibodies are associated with head and neck cancer risk when measured in prediagnostic sera. Methods We identified 638 participants with incident head and neck cancers (patients; 180 oral cancers, 135 oropharynx cancers, and 247 hypopharynx/larynx cancers) and 300 patients with esophageal cancers as well as 1,599 comparable controls from within the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Prediagnostic plasma samples from patients (collected, on average, 6 years before diagnosis) and control participants were analyzed for antibodies against multiple proteins of HPV16 as well as HPV6, HPV11, HPV18, HPV31, HPV33, HPV45, and HPV52. Odds ratios (ORs) of cancer and 95% CIs were calculated, adjusting for potential confounders. All-cause mortality was evaluated among patients using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results HPV16 E6 seropositivity was present in prediagnostic samples for 34.8% of patients with oropharyngeal cancer and 0.6% of controls (OR, 274; 95% CI, 110 to 681) but was not associated with other cancer sites. The increased risk of oropharyngeal cancer among HPV16 E6 seropositive participants was independent of time between blood collection and diagnosis and was observed more than 10 years before diagnosis. The all-cause mortality ratio among patients with oropharyngeal cancer was 0.30 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.67), for patients who were HPV16 E6 seropositive compared with seronegative. Conclusion HPV16 E6 seropositivity was present more than 10 years before diagnosis of oropharyngeal cancers. PMID:23775966

  19. Retrospective evaluation of the impact of functional immunotoxicity testing on pesticide hazard identification and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gehen, Sean C; Blacker, Ann M; Boverhof, Darrell R; Hanley, Thomas R; Hastings, Charles E; Ladics, Gregory S; Lu, Haitian; O'Neal, Fredrick O

    2014-05-01

    Conduct of a T-cell-dependent antibody response (TDAR) assay in rodents according to Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Test Guideline OPPTS 870.7800 is now required for chemical pesticide active ingredients registered in the United States. To assess potential regulatory impact, a retrospective analysis was developed using TDAR tests conducted on 78 pesticide chemicals from 46 separate chemical classes. The objective of the retrospective analysis was to examine the frequency of positive responses and determine the potential for the TDAR to yield lower endpoints than those utilized to calculate reference doses (RfDs). A reduction in the TDAR response was observed at only the high-dose level in five studies, while it was unaltered in the remaining studies. Importantly, for all 78 pesticide chemicals, the TDAR no-observed-adverse-effect levels (TDAR NOAELs) were greater than the NOAELS currently in use as risk assessment endpoints. The TDAR NOAELs were higher than the current EPA-selected endpoints for the chronic RfD, short-term, intermediate and long-term exposure scenarios by 3-27,000, 3-1,688, 3-1,688 and 4.9-1,688 times, respectively. Based on this analysis, conduct of the TDAR assay had minimal impact on hazard identification and did not impact human health risk assessments for the pesticides included in this evaluation. These data strongly support employment of alternative approaches including initial weight-of-evidence analysis for immunotoxic potential prior to conducting functional immunotoxicity testing for pesticide active ingredients.

  20. Evaluation of ecological risk of metal contamination in river Gomti, India: a biomonitoring approach.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Sanjay Kumar; Chabukdhara, Mayuri; Kumar, Praveen; Singh, Jaswant; Bux, Faizal

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent of heavy metal pollution in river Gomti and associated ecological risk. River water, sediments and locally abundant mollusk (Viviparus (V.) bengalensis) were sampled from six different sites and analyzed for seven metals: Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Manganese (Mn), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb) and Zinc (Zn). Mean metal concentrations (mg/l) in river water were 0.024 for Cd, 0.063 for Cr, 0.022 for Cr, 0.029 for Mn, 0.044 for Ni, 0.018 for Pb and 0.067 for Zn. In river sediments, the concentrations (mg/kg dry wt) were 5.0 for Cd, 16.2 for Cr, 23.2 for Cr, 203.2 for Mn, 23.9 for Ni, 46.2 for Pb and 76.3 for Zn, while in V. bengalensis mean metal concentrations (mg/kg, dry wt) were 0.57 for Cd, 12.0 for Cr, 30.7 for Cu, 29.9 for Mn, 8.8 for Ni, 3.6 for Pb and 48.3 for Zn. Results indicated elevated concentrations of Cu, Zn and Mn in V. bengalensis as compared to other non-essential elements. Potential ecological risk (RI) in sediments showed high to very high metal contamination. Cluster analysis indicated that Pb, Zn, Cd and Ni in sediments may have anthropogenic sources. The findings thus suggest heavy metal contamination of river water and sediments have reached alarming levels, which is well corroborated by elevated level of metal accumulation in V. bengalensis.

  1. Lymphohematopoietic cancers induced by chemicals and other agents and their implications for risk evaluation: An overview.

    PubMed

    Eastmond, David A; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Sonawane, Babasaheb

    2014-04-13

    Lymphohematopoietic neoplasia are one of the most common types of cancer induced by therapeutic and environmental agents. Of the more than 100 human carcinogens identified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, approximately 25% induce leukemias or lymphomas. The objective of this review is to provide an introduction into the origins and mechanisms underlying lymphohematopoietic cancers induced by xenobiotics in humans with an emphasis on acute myeloid leukemia, and discuss the implications of this information for risk assessment. Among the agents causing lymphohematopoietic cancers, a number of patterns were observed. Most physical and chemical leukemia-inducing agents such as the therapeutic alkylating agents, topoisomerase II inhibitors, and ionizing radiation induce mainly acute myeloid leukemia through DNA-damaging mechanisms that result in either gene or chromosomal mutations. In contrast, biological agents and a few immunosuppressive chemicals induce primarily lymphoid neoplasms through mechanisms that involve alterations in immune response. Among the environmental agents examined, benzene was clearly associated with acute myeloid leukemia in humans, with increasing but still limited evidence for an association with lymphoid neoplasms. Ethylene oxide and 1,3-butadiene were linked primarily to lymphoid cancers. Although the association between formaldehyde and leukemia remains controversial, several recent evaluations have indicated a potential link between formaldehyde and acute myeloid leukemia. The four environmental agents examined in detail were all genotoxic, inducing gene mutations, chromosomal alterations, and/or micronuclei in vivo. Although it is clear that rapid progress has been made in recent years in our understanding of leukemogenesis, many questions remain for future research regarding chemically induced leukemias and lymphomas, including the mechanisms by which the environmental agents reviewed here induce these diseases and the

  2. Risk for molecular contamination of tissue samples evaluated for targeted anti-cancer therapy

    PubMed Central

    Simon, Einav; Fahoum, Ibrahim; Sabo, Edmond; Ben-Izhak, Ofer; Hershkovitz, Dov

    2017-01-01

    With the increasing usage of sensitive PCR technology for pharmacogenetics, cross contamination becomes a significant concern. Researchers employed techniques which basically include replacing laboratory equipment after each sample preparation; however, there are no recommended guidelines. In the present work we wanted to evaluate the risk of cross contamination during tissue processing using the routine precaution measures. Twenty-one surgical samples of lung adenocarcinoma were used, of which 7 contained EGFR exon 19 mutation, 7 contained EGFR exon 21 mutation (p.L858R) and 7 were EGFR wild-type. The samples were ordered by alternating the mutation group to maximize the potential for cross contamination and underwent tissue sectioning and de-paraffinization. The entire process was performed using the same tools. Following DNA extraction all samples underwent PCR amplification and were scrutinized for small fractions of EGFR mutation using deep sequencing with the Ion torrent PGM technology. Twenty samples yielded results. The fraction of mutated copies was 41 ± 23% (range 11–66) for the cases with known exon 19 mutation and 48±24% (range 0–65) for the cases with known exon 21 mutations. No in-frame exon 19 deletion mutations were identified in the wild-type (WT) and exon 21 groups. The fraction of EGFR exon 21 (codon 858) mutations was 0.018±0.014% (range 0–0.05%) in the WT and exon 19 groups, which was not statistically different than the background sequencing artifact noise for the same base-pair alteration (p = 0.21). Our results suggest that standard precautions are sufficient for molecular pathology diagnosis of surgical samples and are not associated with increased risk of cross contamination. PMID:28288198

  3. Development and Evaluation of a Sensitive Mycotoxin Risk Assessment Model (MYCORAM)

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Hester-Mari; Lombard, Martani J.; Shephard, Gordon S.; Danster-Christians, Natasha; Gelderblom, Wentzel C.A.

    2014-01-01

    The differential risk of exposure to fumonisin (FB), deoxynivalenol (DON), and zearalenone (ZEA) mycotoxins to the South African population, residing in the nine Provinces was assessed during a cross-sectional grain consumer survey. The relative per capita maize intake (g/day) was stratified by gender, ethnicity, and Province and the probable daily intake (PDI) for each mycotoxin (ng/kg body weight/day) calculated utilizing SPECIAL and SUPER dry milled maize fractions representing different exposure scenarios. Men consumed on an average more maize (173 g/day) than women (142 g/day) whereas the black African ethnic group had the highest intake (279 g/day) followed by the Colored group (169 g/day) with the Asian/Indian and White groups consuming lower quantities of 101 and 80 g/day, respectively. The estimated mean PDIs for the various subgroups and Provinces, utilizing the different dry milled maize fractions, were below the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake (PMTDI) for each mycotoxin. A distinct and more sensitive mycotoxin risk assessment model (MYCORAM) for exposure, stratified by Province and ethnicity were developed utilizing specific maize intake increments (g/kg body weight/day) that provides information on the percentage of the population exposed above the PMTDI for each mycotoxin. Evaluation of the MYCORAM utilizing commercial and experimentally derived SPECIAL milling fractions, containing predefined mycotoxins levels, predicts the percentage of maize consumers exposed above the respective PMTDI. Safety modeling using the MYCORAM could also predict a maximum tolerated level adequate to safeguard all South African maize consumers including the most vulnerable groups. PMID:24980263

  4. Preoperative evaluation of cardiac risk by means of atrial pacing and thallium 201 scintigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Stratmann, H.G.; Mark, A.L.; Walter, K.E.; Williams, G.A. )

    1989-10-01

    Atrial pacing and thallium 201 scintigraphy were done in 61 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease referred for evaluation of cardiac risk before elective vascular surgery. All patients had noncardiac limitations precluding performance of an adequate exercise stress test. Before atrial pacing all were considered to be at low risk of a postoperative cardiac event based on assessment of clinical parameters. Vascular surgery was subsequently performed in 47 patients. In these patients, pacing-induced ST segment depression greater than or equal to 1 mm occurred in 18, a fixed perfusion defect occurred in 11, and a reversible defect occurred in six. Two of the six patients with reversible perfusion defects had preoperative coronary angiography; both had significant coronary artery disease (one or more lesions greater than or equal to 50%). Two patients (one of whom had a reversible perfusion defect) underwent preoperative coronary revascularization and tolerated subsequent vascular surgery well. All other patients received only medical therapy. None of the 47 patients undergoing vascular surgery had a postoperative cardiac event (unstable angina, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, or cardiac death). Of the 14 patients in whom vascular surgery was deferred or canceled, surgery was canceled for noncardiac reasons in seven. Six of these seven patients had a normal perfusion scan; none had a reversible perfusion defect or marked (greater than or equal to 2 mm) ST segment depression. No cardiac event occurred during a 3-month period after atrial pacing in any of these patients. Six of the remaining seven patients had reversible perfusion defects.

  5. Breast and ovarian cancer risk evaluation in families with a disease-causing mutation in BRCA1/2.

    PubMed

    Beristain, Elena; Ibáñez, Berta; Vergara, Itziar; Martínez-Bouzas, Cristina; Guerra, Isabel; Tejada, Maria Isabel

    2010-06-01

    Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, and their identification allows genetic testing of at-risk relatives. However, estimates of these risks illustrate controversies, depending on the published series. The penetrance, the earlier onset of the disease and the effect of mutations on the risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer were evaluated in 344 females belonging to 34 families from the Basque Country in Spain, in which BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations were transmitted. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to derive cumulative probability curves for breast and ovarian cancer by mutation status, birth cohort and mutation position, and significance of the differences was assessed using the log-rank test. The estimated probability for breast cancer by age 70 is about 64% in BRCA1 and 69% in BRCA2, whereas the probability of developing ovarian cancer is about 37% and 25% for BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. There is a marginally significant higher risk of developing ovarian cancer in BRCA1 families than in BRCA2 families. The effect of birth cohort on breast cancer cumulative incidence presents an increased risk for females born after 1966 and a decreased risk for those born before 1940. There is no association between mutation position and breast cancer; however, ovarian cancer is associated to BRCA1, presenting exon 11 as an ovarian cluster. These results are important for the breast and ovarian cancer diagnosis and prevention in at-risk families.

  6. An integrated biomarker-based strategy for ecotoxicological evaluation of risk in environmental management.

    PubMed

    Moore, Michael N; Depledge, Michael H; Readman, James W; Paul Leonard, D R

    2004-08-18

    Environmental impacts by both natural events and man-made interventions are a fact of life; and developing the capacity to minimise these impacts and their harmful consequences for biological resources, ecosystems and human health is a daunting task for environmental legislators and regulators. A major challenge in impact and risk assessment, as part of integrated environmental management (IEM), is to link harmful effects of pollution (including toxic chemicals) in individual sentinel animals to their ecological consequences. This obstacle has resulted in a knowledge-gap for those seeking to develop effective policies for sustainable use of resources and environmental protection. Part of the solution to this problem may lie with the use of diagnostic clinical-type laboratory-based ecotoxicological tests or biomarkers, utilising sentinel animals as integrators of pollution, coupled with direct immunochemical tests for contaminants. These rapid and cost-effective ecotoxicological tools can provide information on the health status of individuals and populations based on relatively small samples of individuals. In the context of ecosystem status or health of the environment, biomarkers are also being used to link processes of molecular and cellular damage through to higher levels (i.e., prognostic capability), where they can result in pathology with reduced physiological performance and reproductive success. Complex issues are involved in evaluating environmental risk, such as the effects of the physico-chemical environment on the speciation and uptake of pollutant chemicals and inherent inter-individual and inter-species differences in vulnerability to toxicity; and the toxicity of complex mixtures. Effectively linking the impact of pollutants through the various hierarchical levels of biological organisation to ecosystem and human health requires a pragmatic integrated approach based on existing information that either links or correlates processes of pollutant

  7. Evaluation of Daptomycin Exposure and Efficacy and Safety Endpoints To Support Risk-versus-Benefit Considerations.

    PubMed

    Bhavnani, Sujata M; Ambrose, Paul G; Hammel, Jeffrey P; Rubino, Christopher M; Drusano, George L

    2015-12-28

    The choice of an antimicrobial agent must balance optimization of efficacy endpoints with the minimization of safety events. The risk versus benefit of daptomycin for patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia with or without infective endocarditis receiving daptomycin at 6, 8, and 10 mg/kg of body weight/day was assessed. The relationships between the area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h (AUC)/MIC ratio and both clinical response and time to decreased susceptibility were evaluated using data from patients with such infections who received daptomycin at 6 mg/kg/day. Using these relationships, plus the previously identified relationship between the minimum concentration and an elevation in the creatine phosphokinase (CPK) concentration (CPK elevation) (S. M. Bhavnani, C. M. Rubino, P. G. Ambrose, and G. L. Drusano, Clin Infect Dis 50:1568-1574, 2010) and Monte Carlo simulation, the probability of each outcome by MIC for daptomycin at 6, 8, and 10 mg/kg/day was calculated. The function for exposure-response relationships for clinical response (P = 0.06) and time to decreased susceptibility (P = 0.01) resembled U and inverted U shapes, respectively. Multivariable analyses demonstrated AUC/MIC ratio, creatinine clearance, albumin concentration, and disease category to be predictors of clinical response. The results of simulations failed to demonstrate large improvements in the probabilities of clinical success among cohorts of simulated patients defined by the above-described predictive factors or the probability of decreased susceptibility at 30 days when the daptomycin dose was increased from 6 to 10 mg/kg/day. The probability of CPK elevation increased from 0.073 to 0.156 over this dose range. These data can be used to inform risk-versus-benefit decisions for daptomycin dose selection in patients with S. aureus bacteremia with or without infective endocarditis. The risk of CPK elevation, which is reversible, should be weighed in the context of the

  8. Evaluation of in vitro models for predicting acidosis risk of barley grain in finishing beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Anele, U Y; Swift, M-L; McAllister, T A; Galyean, M L; Yang, W Z

    2015-10-01

    Our objective was to develop a model to predict the acidosis potential of barley based on the in vitro batch culture incubation of 50 samples varying in bulk density, starch content, processing method, growing location, and agronomic practices. The model was an adaptation of the acidosis index (calculated from a combination of in situ and in vitro analyses and from several components of grain chemical composition) developed in Australia for use in the feed industry to estimate the potential for grains to increase the risk of ruminal acidosis. Of the independent variables considered, DM disappearance at 6 h of incubation (DMD6) using reduced-strength (20%) buffer in the batch culture accounted for 90.5% of the variation in the acidosis index with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.46%. To evaluate our model using independent datasets (derived from previous batch culture studies using full-strength [100%] buffer), we performed another batch culture study using full-strength buffer. The full-strength buffer model using in vitro DMD6 (DMD6-FS) accounted for 66.5% of the variation in the acidosis index with an RMSE of 8.30%. When the new full-strength buffer model was applied to 3 independent datasets to predict acidosis, it accounted for 20.1, 28.5, and 30.2% of the variation in the calculated acidosis index. Significant ( < 0.001) mean bias was evident in 2 of the datasets, for which the DMD6 model underpredicted the acidosis index by 46.9 and 5.73%. Ranking of samples from the most diverse independent dataset using the DMD6-FS model and the Black (2008) model (calculated using in situ starch degradation) indicated the relationship between the rankings using Spearman's rank correlation was negative (ρ = -0.30; = 0.059). When the reduced-strength buffer model was used, however, there were similarities in the acidosis index ranking of barley samples by the models as shown by the result of a correlation analysis between calculated (using the Australian model) and

  9. EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

    2013-04-01

    Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

  10. The role of risk communication planning in the release of the oral rabies vaccine in New Jersey: An evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Pflugh, K.K.

    1995-12-01

    Communicating health risk information is a complicated task. Citizen reaction to such information is difficult to predict, which makes it hard to plan an appropriate response. Research indicates that the way citizens respond to risk information often depends on whether the risk is familiar or unfamiliar, whether it is seen as imposed on them, whether it is man made or natural, or whether they have control over the risk. Potentially controversial cases that deal with delivering risk information have a special need for a well planned communication effort. Natural resource issues with an impact on public health are no exception. In New Jersey, a proposal to release an experimental bioengineered oral rabies vaccine for raccoons to test the effectiveness of the vaccine in halting the spread of rabies into an as yet unaffected area met with widespread public support and approval due in large part to the use of a unique risk communication planning process. This paper will describe the risk communication planning process used to gain public support and approval for release of oral rabies raccoon vaccine while focusing on the evaluation component of the process. The seven step process includes setting goals, profiling the issue or information gathering, audience identification and assessment, message development, method selection, implementation of the strategy and evaluation and follow-up. The goal of the evaluation component was to determine the effectiveness of the public information campaign on citizen`s knowledge of the field trial nearly three years after the initial announcement. In addition, it sought to learn citizen interest in maintaining the rabies free barrier that was created by the field trial using funds from local taxes. This evaluation includes the results of a mailed survey to 280 citizens, local officials and professional organizations. Finally, this paper will discuss the implications for future outreach efforts dealing complicated technical issues.

  11. Topical Backgrounder: How Safe Am I? Helping Communities Evaluate Chemical Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Part of the May 1999 Guides to Environmental Risk Management Series created by the National Safety Council. Explains how RMPs will help prevent emergency chemical releases, reduce risk from exposure to hazards, and minimize consequences.

  12. Evaluating uncertainty to strengthen epidemiologic data for use in human health risk assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: There is a recognized need to improve the application of epidemiologic data in human health risk assessment especially for understanding and characterizing risks from environmental and occupational exposures. While most epidemiologic studies result in uncertainty, tec...

  13. Implications of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) programs for managed care pharmacy.

    PubMed

    Gandhi, Gaurang; Chon, Ashley; Johnson, Nik; Kidder, Phyllis A; Lee, Peter; Leung, Kevin; Ma, Ingrid; Ness, Stacey; Sampsel, Elizabeth; Schlaifer, Marissa; Seifert, Randall; Sternaman, Debora B

    2012-04-01

    In the last 2 decades, health care management has been challenged by more aggressive therapy, the increased number of specialty medications, and more stringent guidelines to monitor adverse events or health risk. To promote patient safety, various communication requirements are mandated to increase the risk awareness of patients and physicians. These include black-box warnings, "Dear Health Care Provider" letters, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Talk Papers, MedGuides, and Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs).

  14. [Ecological risk evaluation of heavy metals of the typical dredged mud in Shanghai].

    PubMed

    Tang, Qing-Li; Cheng, Jin-Ping; Gao, Hao-Min; Yao, Lei; Jiang, Zhen-Yi; Wu, Yang; Xie, Cui-Song; Liang, Hai; Wang, He; Pi, Shuai-Shuai; Yu, Zhao-Yi

    2013-04-01

    In order to discuss the potential ecological risk of heavy metals of the typical dredged mud in Shanghai, the Hakanson potential ecological risks method was used to analyse and assess the potential ecological risks of heavy metals, including Hg, Cd, Cu, Pb, As,Cr and Zn in dredged mud from the following three areas-the dock apron of Huangpu River, the mouth of the Yangtze River and inland waterways. The results showed that the mean values of ecological risk index (Er(i)) of the seven heavy metals are 20.05, 17.49, 8.82, 5.71, 4.68, 1.74 and 1.13, respectively, all of which belonged to the low ecological risk; Cd (one location in inland waterways) and Hg (three locations in the mouth of the Yangtze River and one location in inland waterways) are the most hazardous elements, with the Er(i) > 40, which belonged to the medium ecological risk or the high ecological risk, and other elements belonged to the low ecological risk. From the results of ecological risk indices(ERI) of the heavy metals in Shanghai dredged mud, the risk of the heavy metals belonged to the low ecological risk. The ERI of inland waterways, the mouth of the Yangtze River and the dock apron of the Huangpu River were 81.4, 57.7 and 52.5, respectively, which all belong to the low ecological risk.

  15. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vanderbilt-Adriance, Ella; Shaw, Daniel S.

    2008-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent…

  16. U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

    PubMed

    Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B

    2015-01-01

    This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

  17. Evaluation of Epidemiology and Animal Data for Risk Assessment: Chlorpyrifos Developmental Neurobehavioral Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Li, Abby A.; Lowe, Kimberly A.; McIntosh, Laura J.; Mink, Pamela J.

    2012-01-01

    Developmental neurobehavioral outcomes attributed to exposure to chlorpyrifos (CPF) obtained from epidemiologic and animal studies published before June 2010 were reviewed for risk assessment purposes. For epidemiological studies, this review considered (1) overall strength of study design, (2) specificity of CPF exposure biomarkers, (3) potential for bias, and (4) Hill guidelines for causal inference. In the case of animal studies, this review focused on evaluating the consistency of outcomes for developmental neurobehavioral endpoints from in vivo mammalian studies that exposed dams and/or offspring to CPF prior to weaning. Developmental neuropharmacologic and neuropathologic outcomes were also evaluated. Experimental design and methods were examined as part of the weight of evidence. There was insufficient evidence that human developmental exposures to CPF produce adverse neurobehavioral effects in infants and children across different cohort studies that may be relevant to CPF exposure. In animals, few behavioral parameters were affected following gestational exposures to 1 mg/kg-d but were not consistently reported by different laboratories. For postnatal exposures, behavioral effects found in more than one study at 1 mg/kg-d were decreased errors on a radial arm maze in female rats and increased errors in males dosed subcutaneously from postnatal day (PND) 1 to 4. A similar finding was seen in rats exposed orally from PND 1 to 21 with incremental dose levels of 1, 2, and 4 mg/kg-d, but not in rats dosed with constant dose level of 1 mg/kg-d. Neurodevelopmental behavioral, pharmacological, and morphologic effects occurred at doses that produced significant brain or red blood cell acetylcholinesterase inhibition in dams or offspring. PMID:22401178

  18. Dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy: Evaluation of risk factors and assessment of endoscopic intervention

    PubMed Central

    Nath, Anand; Yewale, Sayali; Tran, Tung; Brebbia, John S; Shope, Timothy R; Koch, Timothy R

    2016-01-01

    AIM To evaluate the risks of medical conditions, evaluate gastric sleeve narrowing, and assess hydrostatic balloon dilatation to treat dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG). METHODS VSG is being performed more frequently worldwide as a treatment for medically-complicated obesity, and dysphagia is common post-operatively. We hypothesize that post-operative dysphagia is related to underlying medical conditions or narrowing of the gastric sleeve. This is a retrospective, single institution study of consecutive patients who underwent sleeve gastrectomy from 2013 to 2015. Patients with previous bariatric procedures were excluded. Narrowing of a gastric sleeve includes: inability to pass a 9.6 mm gastroscope due to stenosis or sharp angulation or spiral hindering its passage. RESULTS Of 400 consecutive patients, 352 are included; the prevalence of dysphagia is 22.7%; 33 patients (9.3%) have narrowing of the sleeve with 25 (7.1%) having sharp angulation or a spiral while 8 (2.3%) have a stenosis. All 33 patients underwent balloon dilatation of the gastric sleeve and dysphagia resolved in 13 patients (39%); 10 patients (30%) noted resolution of dysphagia after two additional dilatations. In a multivariate model, medical conditions associated with post-operative dysphagia include diabetes mellitus, symptoms of esophageal reflux, a low whole blood thiamine level, hypothyroidism, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and use of opioids. CONCLUSION Narrowing of the gastric sleeve and gastric sleeve stenosis are common after VSG. Endoscopic balloon dilatations of the gastric sleeve resolves dysphagia in 69% of patients. PMID:28058017

  19. Evaluation of Rint1 as a modifier of intestinal tumorigenesis and cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Otterpohl, Karla L.; Gould, Karen A.

    2017-01-01

    The Rad50 Interacting Protein 1 (Rint1) influences cellular homeostasis through maintenance of endoplasmic reticulum, Golgi and centrosome integrity and regulation of vesicle transport, autophagy and the G2/M checkpoint. Rint1 has been postulated to function as a tumor suppressor as well as an oncogene, with its role depending perhaps upon the precise cellular and/or experimental context. In humans, heterozygosity for germline missense variants in RINT1 have, in some studies, been associated with increased risk of both breast and Lynch syndrome type cancers. However, it is not known if these germline variants represent loss of function alleles or gain of function alleles. Based upon these findings, as well as our initial consideration of Rint1 as a potential candidate for Mom5, a genetic modifier of intestinal tumorigenesis in ApcMin/+ mice, we sought to explicitly examine the impact of Rint1 on tumorigenesis in ApcMin/+ mice. However, heterozygosity for a knockout of Rint1 had no impact on tumorigenesis in Rint1+/-; ApcMin/+ mice. Likewise, we found no evidence to suggest that the remaining Rint1 allele was lost somatically in intestinal tumors in ApcMin/+ mice. Interestingly, in contrast to what has been observed in Rint1+/- mice on a mixed genetic background, Rint1+/- mice on a pure C57BL/6J background did not show spontaneous tumor development. We also evaluated colorectal cancer data available in the COSMIC and ONCOMINE databases and found that RINT1 overexpression, as well as the presence of somatic missense mutations in RINT1 were associated with colorectal cancer development. In vitro evaluation of two missense variants in RINT1 suggested that such variants do have the potential to impact RINT1 function. PMID:28264000

  20. Level III baseline risk evaluation for Building 3505 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Mostella, W.B. Jr.

    1994-12-01

    The Level III Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) for Building 3505, the ORNL Metal Recovery Facility, provides an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects, current or future, associated with the presence of hazardous substances in the building. The Metal Recovery Facility was used from 1952 through 1960 to process large quantities of radioactive material using the PUREX process for the recovery of uranium-238, plutonium-239, neptunium-237, and americium-241. The facility consists of seven process cells (A through G), a canal, a dissolver room, a dissolver pit, an office, locker room, storage area, control room, electrical gallery, shop, and makeup area. The cells were used to house the nuclear fuel reprocessing equipment, and the canal was constructed to be used as a water-shielded transfer canal. Currently, there are no known releases of radioactive contaminants from Building 3505. To perform the BRE, historical radiological survey data were used to estimate the concentration of alpha- and beta/gamma emitting radionuclides in the various cells, rooms, and other areas in Building 3505. Data from smear surveys were used to estimate the amount of transferable contamination (to which receptors can be exposed via inhalation and ingestion), and data from probe surveys were used to estimate the amount of both fixed and transferable contamination (from which receptors can receive external exposure). Two land use scenarios, current and future, and their subsequent exposure scenarios were explored in the BRE. Under the current land use scenario, two exposure scenarios were evaluated. The first was a worst-case industrial exposure scenario in which the receptor is a maintenance worker who works 8 hours/day, 350 days/year in the building for 25 years. In the second, more realistic exposure scenario, the receptor is a surveillance and maintenance (S&M) worker who spends two 8-hour days/year in the building for 25 years.

  1. Evaluation of agricultural nonpoint source pollution potential risk over China with a Transformed-Agricultural Nonpoint Pollution Potential Index method.

    PubMed

    Yang, Fei; Xu, Zhencheng; Zhu, Yunqiang; He, Chansheng; Wu, Genyi; Qiu, Jin Rong; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Qingsong

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution has been the most important threat to water environment quality. Understanding the spatial distribution of NPS pollution potential risk is important for taking effective measures to control and reduce NPS pollution. A Transformed-Agricultural Nonpoint Pollution Potential Index (T-APPI) model was constructed for evaluating the national NPS pollution potential risk in this study; it was also combined with remote sensing and geographic information system techniques for evaluation on the large scale and at 1 km2 spatial resolution. This model considers many factors contributing to the NPS pollution as the original APPI model, summarized as four indicators of the runoff, sediment production, chemical use and the people and animal load. These four indicators were analysed in detail at 1 km2 spatial resolution throughout China. The T-APPI model distinguished the four indicators into pollution source factors and transport process factors; it also took their relationship into consideration. The studied results showed that T-APPI is a credible and convenient method for NPS pollution potential risk evaluation. The results also indicated that the highest NPS pollution potential risk is distributed in the middle-southern Jiangsu province. Several other regions, including the North China Plain, Chengdu Basin Plain, Jianghan Plain, cultivated lands in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, also showed serious NPS pollution potential. This study can provide a scientific reference for predicting the future NPS pollution risk throughout China and may be helpful for taking reasonable and effective measures for preventing and controlling NPS pollution.

  2. Development of the STAR evaluation system for football helmets: integrating player head impact exposure and risk of concussion.

    PubMed

    Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M

    2011-08-01

    In contrast to the publicly available data on the safety of automobiles, consumers have no analytical mechanism to evaluate the protective performance of football helmets. The objective of this article is to fill this void by introducing a new equation that can be used to evaluate helmet performance by integrating player head impact exposure and risk of concussion. The Summation of Tests for the Analysis of Risk (STAR) equation relates on-field impact exposure to a series of 24 drop tests performed at four impact locations and six impact energy levels. Using 62,974 head acceleration data points collected from football players, the number of impacts experienced for one full season was translated to 24 drop test configurations. A new injury risk function was developed from 32 measured concussions and associated exposure data to assess risk of concussion for each impact. Finally, the data from all 24 drop tests is combined into one number using the STAR formula that incorporates the predicted exposure and injury risk for one player for one full season of practices and games. The new STAR evaluation equation will provide consumers with a meaningful metric to assess the relative performance of football helmets.

  3. Evaluation of oxidative stress markers and cardiovascular risk factors in Fabry Disease patients

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Karen B.; Galdieri, Luciano C.; Pereira, Vanessa G.; Martins, Ana M.; D’Almeida, Vânia

    2012-01-01

    Fabry Disease, an X-linked inborn error of metabolism, is characterized by progressive renal insufficiency, with cardio and cerebrovascular involvement. Homocysteine (Hcy) is considered a risk factor for vascular diseases, but the mechanisms by which it produces cardiovascular damage are still poorly understood. Regarding the vascular involvement in FD patients, the analysis of factors related to thromboembolic events could be useful to improving our understanding of the disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate plasma Hcy and other parameters involved in the methionine cycle, as well as oxidative stress markers. The sample consisted of a group of 10 male FD patients and a control group of 8 healthy individuals, paired by age. Venous blood was collected for Hcy determination, molecular analysis, identification of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, total glutathione and antioxidant enzymes activity, as well as vitamins quantification. Comparative analysis of FD patients versus the control group indicated hyperhomocysteinemia in 8 of the 10 FD patients, as well as a significant increase in overall glutathione levels and catalase activity. It is inferred that FD patients, apart from activation of the antioxidant system, present increased levels of plasma Hcy, although this is probably unrelated to common alterations in the methionine cycle. PMID:22888289

  4. An evaluation of microbial health risks to livestock fed with wastewater-irrigated forage crops.

    PubMed

    Bevilacqua, P D; Bastos, R K X; Mara, D D

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the results of five experiments in which animal health risks associated with the consumption of crops irrigated with domestic wastewater were evaluated. Forage maize and Tanner grass were irrigated with treated wastewater and used in goats and calves feeding trials. The irrigated crops presented high levels of surface contamination with E. coli (10(4) -10(7) 25 g(-1) ) and salmonellae (up to 1.6 × 10(4) 25 g(-1)), but none of the animals showed signs of infection or of disease. Further, the microbiological quality of animal products always complied with the Brazilian and European Union standards for food safety. It is suggested that the WHO guideline values for restricted irrigation (≤ 10(4) E. coli 100 ml(-1) and ≤ 1 helminth egg l(-1)), which were developed to protect the health of agricultural field workers, would be equally protective of the health of both animals fed with wastewater-irrigated crops and humans consuming products from such animals.

  5. [Analysis of phthalates in aromatic and deodorant aerosol products and evaluation of exposure risk].

    PubMed

    Sato, Yoshiki; Sugaya, Naeko; Nakagawa, Tomoo; Morita, Masatoshi

    2015-01-01

    We established an analytical method for the detection of seven phthalates, dimethyl phthalate, diethyl phthalate (DEP), benzyl butyl phthalate, di-i-butyl phthalate, dibutyl phthalate (DBP), diethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP), and di-n-octhyl phthalate, using an ultra high performance liquid chromatograph equipped with a photodiode array detector. This method is quick, with minimal contamination, and was applied to the analysis of aromatic and deodorant aerosol products. Phthalates were detected in 15 of 52 samples purchased from 1999 to 2012 in Yokohama. Three types of phthalate (DEP, DBP, DEHP) were detected, and their concentrations ranged from 0.0085-0.23% DEP in nine samples, 0.012-0.045% DBP in four samples, and 0.012-0.033% DEHP in four samples. No other phthalate esters were detected. Furthermore, we estimated phthalate exposure via breathing in commonly used aromatic and deodorant aerosol products, then evaluated the associated risk. The estimated levels of phthalate exposure were lower than the tolerated daily limit, but the results indicated that aromatic and deodorant aerosol products could be a significant source of phthalate exposure.

  6. Evaluation of Cellular Phones for Potential Risk of Nosocomial Infection amongst Dental Operators and Auxiliary Staff

    PubMed Central

    Nasim, V S; Al-Hakami, Ahmed; Bijle, Mohammed Nadeem Ahmed; Al-Manea, Sulthan Ahmed; Al-Shehri, Mohammed Dahman; Al-Malki, Saleh Mohammed

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study evaluates cellular phones for potential risk of nosocomial infection amongst dental operators and auxiliary staff in a dental school. Materials and Methods: Each participant’s mobile phone was first cleaned with 70% isopropyl alcohol swab. Following the cleansing protocol, the partakers were asked to make a short phone call. The mobile phones were then washed aseptically by rotating damp cotton swabs with sterile normal saline. Bacterial growth was identified on sheep blood agar and McConkey’s agar plates. Sabouraud dextrose agar media was used for fungi species. Descriptive statistics was established with the data statistically explored with SPSS version 17.0. Results: About 50% of dental professionals had shown active bacterial and fungal growth in which 35% (n=35) were dental operators and 15% (n=15) were dental nurses. 53% Gram-positive organisms, 2% Gram-negative organisms, and 3% fungi were identified growths on cellular phones. Conclusion: Thus, it can be concluded that the cellular phones of dental operators as compared to auxiliaries can act as a potential source of nosocomial infection. PMID:25954071

  7. Risk assessment of sleeping disorder breathing based on upper airway centerline evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alsufyani, Noura; Shen, Rui; Cheng, Irene; Major, Paul

    2013-02-01

    One of the most important breathing disorders in childhood is obstructive sleep apnea syndrome which affects 2-3% of children, and the reported failure rate of surgical treatment was as high as 54%. A possible reason in respiratory complications is having reduced dimensions of the upper airway which are further compressed when muscle tone is decreased during sleep. In this study, we use Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to assess the location or cause of the airway obstruction. To date, all studies analyzing the upper airway in subjects with Sleeping Disorder Breathing were based on linear, area, or volumetric measurements, which are global computations and can easily ignore local significance. Skeletonization was initially introduced as a 3D modeling technique by which representative medial points of a model are extracted to generate centerlines for evaluations. Although centerlines have been commonly used in guiding surgical procedures, our novelty lies in comparing its geometric properties before and after surgeries. We apply 3D data refinement, registration and projection steps to quantify and localize the geometric deviation in target airway regions. Through cross validation with corresponding subjects' therapy data, we expect to quantify the tolerance threshold beyond which reduced dimensions of the upper airway are not clinically significant. The ultimate goal is to utilize this threshold to identify patients at risk of complications. Outcome from this research will also help establish a predictive model for training and to estimate treatment success based on airway measurements prior to intervention. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of our approach.

  8. Evaluation of usefulness of Microbial Assay for Risk Assessment (MARA) in the cyanobacterial toxicity estimation.

    PubMed

    Sieroslawska, Anna

    2014-07-01

    The aim of the study was to elucidate the usefulness of the Microbial Assay for Risk Assessment (MARA) to evaluate toxicity in samples containing cyanobacterial products. Cyanobacterial extracts with different cyanotoxin contents and pure cyanotoxins-microcystin-LR, cylindrospermopsin and anatoxin-a-were tested. On the basis of the microbial reaction, MARA indicated only slight or no toxicity in the studied extracts. Similarly, no or low toxicity of pure toxins was detected at the concentrations used (up to 10 μg/ml). Weak relationships between the reactions of individual organisms exposed to cyanotoxin-containing extracts and to the same pure toxins were observed. On the other hand, inhibition of some organisms, such as Pichia anomalia, whose growth was not impacted by pure cyanotoxins, indicated the presence of other biologically active compounds in the studied extracts. In conclusion, MARA assay is not enough sensitive to be used as a good tool for cyanotoxin screening. It may, however, be applied in searching for antimicrobial/antifungal cyanobacteria-derived compounds.

  9. Migration of plasticizers phthalates, bisphenol A and alkylphenols from plastic containers and evaluation of risk.

    PubMed

    Guart, A; Bono-Blay, F; Borrell, A; Lacorte, S

    2011-05-01

    This study investigates the potential migration of plasticisers, plastic components and additives from several plastic water bottles. Compounds studied were phthalates (dimethyl phthalate, di-n-butyl phthalate, benzylbutyl phthalate, bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate), bis(2-ethylhexyl) adipate, octylphenol, 4-nonylphenol and bisphenol A. Polycarbonate (PC), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polystyrene (PS) plastics used in the water bottling sector were tested using three kinds of total or specific migration tests: (1) standard method UNE-EN ISO 177; (2) ultrasonic forced extraction; and (3) standard method UNE-EN 13130-1. In addition, bottled waters contained in different plastic materials were analysed to determine the potential migration of target compounds in real conditions. In all cases, samples were solid-phase extracted using Oasis HLB 200 mg cartridges and analysed using GC-MS in scan-acquisition mode. Bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol were detected in incubated samples, indicating that migration from food plastics can occur at the experimental conditions tested. The total daily intake was calculated according to the levels detected in bottled water and the assessment of the consumers' risk was evaluated taking into consideration toxicological and legislative values.

  10. Terrestrial ecological risk evaluation for triclosan in land-applied biosolids.

    PubMed

    Fuchsman, Phyllis; Lyndall, Jennifer; Bock, Michael; Lauren, Darrel; Barber, Timothy; Leigh, Katrina; Perruchon, Elyse; Capdevielle, Marie

    2010-07-01

    Triclosan is an antimicrobial compound found in many consumer products including soaps and personal care products. Most triclosan is disposed of down household drains, whereupon it is conveyed to wastewater treatment plants. Although a high percentage of triclosan biodegrades during wastewater treatment, most of the remainder is adsorbed to sludge, which may ultimately be applied to land as biosolids. We evaluated terrestrial ecological risks related to triclosan in land-applied biosolids for soil microbes, plants, soil invertebrates, mammals, and birds. Exposures are estimated using a probabilistic fugacity-based model. Triclosan concentrations in biosolids and reported biosolids application rates are compiled to support estimation of triclosan concentrations in soil. Concentrations in biota tissue are estimated using an equilibrium partitioning model for plants and worms and a steady-state model for small mammals; the resulting tissue concentrations are used to model mammalian and avian dietary exposures. Toxicity benchmarks are identified from a review of published and proprietary studies. The results indicate that adverse effects related to soil fertility (i.e., disruption of nitrogen cycling) would be expected only under "worst-case" exposures, under certain soil conditions and would likely be transient. The available data indicate that adverse effects on plants, invertebrates, birds, and mammals due to triclosan in land-applied biosolids are unlikely.