Evaluation of volatile organic emissions from hazardous waste incinerators.

PubMed Central

Sedman, R M; Esparza, J R

1991-01-01

Conventional methods of risk assessment typically employed to evaluate the impact of hazardous waste incinerators on public health must rely on somewhat speculative emissions estimates or on complicated and expensive sampling and analytical methods. The limited amount of toxicological information concerning many of the compounds detected in stack emissions also complicates the evaluation of the public health impacts of these facilities. An alternative approach aimed at evaluating the public health impacts associated with volatile organic stack emissions is presented that relies on a screening criterion to evaluate total stack hydrocarbon emissions. If the concentration of hydrocarbons in ambient air is below the screening criterion, volatile emissions from the incinerator are judged not to pose a significant threat to public health. Both the screening criterion and a conventional method of risk assessment were employed to evaluate the emissions from 20 incinerators. Use of the screening criterion always yielded a substantially greater estimate of risk than that derived by the conventional method. Since the use of the screening criterion always yielded estimates of risk that were greater than that determined by conventional methods and measuring total hydrocarbon emissions is a relatively simple analytical procedure, the use of the screening criterion would appear to facilitate the evaluation of operating hazardous waste incinerators. PMID:1954928

The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

2018-03-01

For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF EDC RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS

EPA Science Inventory

In Superfund risk management research, the performance of risk management techniques is typically evaluated by measuring "the concentrations of the chemicals of concern before and after risk management efforts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust und...

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

PubMed

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Construction risk assessment of deep foundation pit in metro station based on G-COWA method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Weibao; Wang, Jianbo; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Fangmeng; Yang, Diying

2018-05-01

In order to get an accurate understanding of the construction safety of deep foundation pit in metro station and reduce the probability and loss of risk occurrence, a risk assessment method based on G-COWA is proposed. Firstly, relying on the specific engineering examples and the construction characteristics of deep foundation pit, an evaluation index system based on the five factors of “human, management, technology, material and environment” is established. Secondly, the C-OWA operator is introduced to realize the evaluation index empowerment and weaken the negative influence of expert subjective preference. The gray cluster analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are combined to construct the construction risk assessment model of deep foundation pit, which can effectively solve the uncertainties. Finally, the model is applied to the actual project of deep foundation pit of Qingdao Metro North Station, determine its construction risk rating is “medium”, evaluate the model is feasible and reasonable. And then corresponding control measures are put forward and useful reference are provided.

Risk assessment of logistics outsourcing based on BP neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaofeng; Tian, Zi-you

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the risk of the enterprises logistics outsourcing. To get this goal, the paper first analysed he main risks existing in the logistics outsourcing, and then set up a risk evaluation index system of the logistics outsourcing; second applied BP neural network into the logistics outsourcing risk evaluation and used MATLAB to the simulation. It proved that the network error is small and has strong practicability. And this method can be used by enterprises to evaluate the risks of logistics outsourcing.

[Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

PubMed

Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

2015-12-01

To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

PubMed Central

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

Risky business: Addressing the consequences of predicting violence.

PubMed

Miller, Sarah L; Brodsky, Stanley L

2011-01-01

Despite major advances in the prediction of violence and risk management, risk evaluations are necessarily imperfect. This article focuses on the role of the evaluator in such assessments and addresses the consequences incurred by clinicians involved in conducting risk assessments. We discuss the risks of overpredicting and underpredicting violence with respect to how these risks can influence an evaluator's opinion. Then, we review how law and psychology inform the clinician's work. Finally, in response to the compelling tendency toward overprediction of violence, we propose a preliminary self-assessment guide as a method of examining influences on the evaluator in assessing violence risk.

Three methods for integration of environmental risk into the benefit-risk assessment of veterinary medicinal products.

PubMed

Chapman, Jennifer L; Porsch, Lucas; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Backhaus, Thomas; Sinclair, Chris; Jones, Glyn; Boxall, Alistair B A

2017-12-15

Veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) require, as part of the European Union (EU) authorization process, consideration of both risks and benefits. Uses of VMPs have multiple risks (e.g., risks to the animal being treated, to the person administering the VMP) including risks to the environment. Environmental risks are not directly comparable to therapeutic benefits; there is no standardized approach to compare both environmental risks and therapeutic benefits. We have developed three methods for communicating and comparing therapeutic benefits and environmental risks for the benefit-risk assessment that supports the EU authorization process. Two of these methods support independent product evaluation (i.e., a summative classification and a visual scoring matrix classification); the other supports a comparative evaluation between alternative products (i.e., a comparative classification). The methods and the challenges to implementing a benefit-risk assessment including environmental risk are presented herein; how these concepts would work in current policy is discussed. Adaptability to scientific and policy development is considered. This work is an initial step in the development of a standardized methodology for integrated decision-making for VMPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Evaluation of ergonomic physical risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant: case study in SCANIA Production Angers

PubMed Central

ZARE, Mohsen; MALINGE-OUDENOT, Agnes; HÖGLUND, Robert; BIAU, Sophie; ROQUELAURE, Yves

2015-01-01

The aims of this study were 1) to assess the ergonomic physical risk factors from practitioner’s viewpoint in a truck assembly plant with an in-house observational method and the NIOSH lifting equation, and 2) to compare the results of both methods and their differences. The in-house ergonomic observational method for truck assembly i.e. the SCANIA Ergonomics Standard (SES) and the NIOSH lifting equation were applied to evaluate physical risk factors and lifting of loads by operators. Both risk assessment approaches revealed various levels of risk, ranging from low to high. Two workstations were identified by the SES method as high risk. The NIOSH lifting index (LI) was greater than two for four lifting tasks. The results of the SES method disagreed with the NIOSH lifting equation for lifting tasks. Moreover, meaningful variations in ergonomic risk patterns were found for various truck models at each workstation. These results provide a better understanding of the physical ergonomic exposure from practitioner’s point of view in the automotive assembly plant. PMID:26423331

Evaluation of ergonomic physical risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant: case study in SCANIA Production Angers.

PubMed

Zare, Mohsen; Malinge-Oudenot, Agnes; Höglund, Robert; Biau, Sophie; Roquelaure, Yves

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were 1) to assess the ergonomic physical risk factors from practitioner's viewpoint in a truck assembly plant with an in-house observational method and the NIOSH lifting equation, and 2) to compare the results of both methods and their differences. The in-house ergonomic observational method for truck assembly i.e. the SCANIA Ergonomics Standard (SES) and the NIOSH lifting equation were applied to evaluate physical risk factors and lifting of loads by operators. Both risk assessment approaches revealed various levels of risk, ranging from low to high. Two workstations were identified by the SES method as high risk. The NIOSH lifting index (LI) was greater than two for four lifting tasks. The results of the SES method disagreed with the NIOSH lifting equation for lifting tasks. Moreover, meaningful variations in ergonomic risk patterns were found for various truck models at each workstation. These results provide a better understanding of the physical ergonomic exposure from practitioner's point of view in the automotive assembly plant.

Evaluating performance of risk identification methods through a large-scale simulation of observational data.

PubMed

Ryan, Patrick B; Schuemie, Martijn J

2013-10-01

There has been only limited evaluation of statistical methods for identifying safety risks of drug exposure in observational healthcare data. Simulations can support empirical evaluation, but have not been shown to adequately model the real-world phenomena that challenge observational analyses. To design and evaluate a probabilistic framework (OSIM2) for generating simulated observational healthcare data, and to use this data for evaluating the performance of methods in identifying associations between drug exposure and health outcomes of interest. Seven observational designs, including case-control, cohort, self-controlled case series, and self-controlled cohort design were applied to 399 drug-outcome scenarios in 6 simulated datasets with no effect and injected relative risks of 1.25, 1.5, 2, 4, and 10, respectively. Longitudinal data for 10 million simulated patients were generated using a model derived from an administrative claims database, with associated demographics, periods of drug exposure derived from pharmacy dispensings, and medical conditions derived from diagnoses on medical claims. Simulation validation was performed through descriptive comparison with real source data. Method performance was evaluated using Area Under ROC Curve (AUC), bias, and mean squared error. OSIM2 replicates prevalence and types of confounding observed in real claims data. When simulated data are injected with relative risks (RR) ≥ 2, all designs have good predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.90), but when RR < 2, no methods achieve 100 % predictions. Each method exhibits a different bias profile, which changes with the effect size. OSIM2 can support methodological research. Results from simulation suggest method operating characteristics are far from nominal properties.

A methodology to quantitatively evaluate the safety of a glazing robot.

PubMed

Lee, Seungyeol; Yu, Seungnam; Choi, Junho; Han, Changsoo

2011-03-01

A new construction method using robots is spreading widely among construction sites in order to overcome labour shortages and frequent construction accidents. Along with economical efficiency, safety is a very important factor for evaluating the use of construction robots in construction sites. However, the quantitative evaluation of safety is difficult compared with that of economical efficiency. In this study, we suggested a safety evaluation methodology by defining the 'worker' and 'work conditions' as two risk factors, defining the 'worker' factor as posture load and the 'work conditions' factor as the work environment and the risk exposure time. The posture load evaluation reflects the risk of musculoskeletal disorders which can be caused by work posture and the risk of accidents which can be caused by reduced concentration. We evaluated the risk factors that may cause various accidents such as falling, colliding, capsizing, and squeezing in work environments, and evaluated the operational risk by considering worker exposure time to risky work environments. With the results of the evaluations for each factor, we calculated the general operational risk and deduced the improvement ratio in operational safety by introducing a construction robot. To verify these results, we compared the safety of the existing human manual labour and the proposed robotic labour construction methods for manipulating large glass panels. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of hazardous release in air due to the chemical production of "P. Karaminchev" company in the town of Rousse.

PubMed

Diankova, M

1998-09-01

A health risk evaluation of the lifetime population risk has been made, by using the US EPA's method of risk assessment. Several main steps have been conducted: --a hazard identification, by means of emission analysis and mathematical modeling of air concentration dispersion; a dose-response evaluation and exposure assessment, and finally--a risk characterization. The health risk evaluation was conducted, using lifetime reference concentrations and doses. As risk descriptors were applied: --the individual exposure coefficient (IEC), the hazard quotient (HQ) and the margin of exposure (MOE)--for system toxicants, and the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR)--for carcinogens. The method that was used provides an upperbound estimate, including all possible exposures. The results showed, that the emissions of hydrogen chloride, phthalates (DOF), nitrogen oxides and most of the organic solvents, released from this chemical plant, are not a source of lifetime chronic health risk for the population of any of the six evaluated residential areas of Rousse. The rest of the hazardous emissions cause a slightly increased lifetime health risk, which is entirely in the so called 'controlled risk zone' the risk descriptors vary from 1.00 to 5.00. A number of actions have been prescribed to the plant's government, most of which were realized in the short term.

Method of Evaluating the Life Cycle Cost of Small Earth Dams Considering the Risk of Heavy Rainfall and Selection Method of the Optimum Countermeasure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Toshikazu; Mohri, Yoshiyuki; Matsushima, Kenichi; Ariyoshi, Mitsuru

In recent years the increase in the number of heavy rainfall occurrences such as through unpredictable cloudbursts have resulted in the safety of the embankments of small earth dams needing to be improved. However, the severe financial condition of the government and local autonomous bodies necessitate the cost of improving them to be reduced. This study concerns the development of a method of evaluating the life cycle cost of small earth dams considered to pose a risk and in order to improve the safety of the downstream areas of small earth dams at minimal cost. Use of a safety evaluation method that is based on a combination of runoff analysis, saturated and unsaturated seepage analysis, and slope stability analysis enables the probability of a dam breach and its life cycle cost with the risk of heavy rainfall taken into account to be calculated. Moreover, use of the life cycle cost evaluation method will lead to the development of a technique for selecting the method of the optimal improvement or countermeasures against heavy rainfall.

Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

PubMed

Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

2009-07-01

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

2007-03-01

We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives and allowed researchers to monitor the process students used to make a...revealed distinct risk-management strategies. 15. SUBJECT TERMS risk managements, acquisition process, expected value theory , multi-attribute utility theory ...Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used to arrive at

[Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

2013-02-01

Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

Review of methods for developing regional probabilistic risk assessments, part 2: modeling invasive plant, insect, and pathogen species

Treesearch

P. B. Woodbury; D. A. Weinstein

2010-01-01

We reviewed probabilistic regional risk assessment methodologies to identify the methods that are currently in use and are capable of estimating threats to ecosystems from fire and fuels, invasive species, and their interactions with stressors. In a companion chapter, we highlight methods useful for evaluating risks from fire. In this chapter, we highlight methods...

Reliability and Validity of Observational Risk Screening in Evaluating Dynamic Knee Valgus

PubMed Central

Ekegren, Christina L.; Miller, William C.; Celebrini, Richard G.; Eng, Janice J.; MacIntyre, Donna L.

2012-01-01

Study Design Nonexperimental methodological study. Objectives To determine the interrater and intrarater reliability and validity of using observational risk screening guidelines to evaluate dynamic knee valgus. Background A deficiency in the neuromuscular control of the hip has been identified as a key risk factor for non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in post pubescent females. This deficiency can manifest itself as a valgus knee alignment during tasks involving hip and knee flexion. There are currently no scientifically tested methods to screen for dynamic knee valgus in the clinic or on the field. Methods Three physiotherapists used observational risk screening guidelines to rate 40 adolescent female soccer players according to their risk of ACL injury. The rating was based on the amount of dynamic knee valgus observed on a drop jump landing. Ratings were evaluated for intrarater and interrater agreement using kappa coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of ratings were evaluated by comparing observational ratings with measurements obtained using 3-dimensional (3D) motion analysis. Results Kappa coefficients for intrarater and interrater agreement ranged from 0.75 to 0.85, indicating that ratings were reasonably consistent over time and between physiotherapists. Sensitivity values were inadequate, ranging from 67–87%. This indicated that raters failed to detect up to a third of “truly high risk” individuals. Specificity values ranged from 60–72% which was considered adequate for the purposes of the screen. Conclusion Observational risk screening is a practical and cost-effective method of screening for ACL injury risk. Rater agreement and specificity were acceptable for this method but sensitivity was not. To detect a greater proportion of individuals at risk of ACL injury, coaches and clinicians should ensure that they include additional tests for other high risk characteristics in their screening protocols. PMID:19721212

Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukutani, Y.

2017-12-01

Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response-surface and Monte Carlo simulation without conducting multiple tsunami numerical simulations.

Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.

1989-01-01

Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.

[Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

PubMed

Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

2017-10-10

Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P <0.001) and 0.46 for the second round consultation (χ(2)=65.734, P <0.001), respectively, suggesting that the specialists had similar opinions. The final HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

Dynamic drought risk assessment using crop model and remote sensing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, H.; Su, Z.; Lv, J.; Li, L.; Wang, Y.

2017-02-01

Drought risk assessment is of great significance to reduce the loss of agricultural drought and ensure food security. The normally drought risk assessment method is to evaluate its exposure to the hazard and the vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage for a specific region, which is a static evaluation method. The Dynamic Drought Risk Assessment (DDRA) is to estimate the drought risk according to the crop growth and water stress conditions in real time. In this study, a DDRA method using crop model and remote sensing techniques was proposed. The crop model we employed is DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. The drought risk was quantified by the yield losses predicted by the crop model in a scenario-based method. The crop model was re-calibrated to improve the performance by the Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrieved from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. And the in-situ station-based crop model was extended to assess the regional drought risk by integrating crop planted mapping. The crop planted area was extracted with extended CPPI method from MODIS data. This study was implemented and validated on maize crop in Liaoning province, China.

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probabi...

Enhancing Learning Outcomes through Evaluation of Serious Gaming: A Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, Kerrie Anna

2012-01-01

This study compared the change in counseling student's self-efficacy and skill related to suicide assessment and intervention through the use of a novel intervention-oriented evaluation method, evaluation focused discussion groups, in an experimental embedded mixed methods design. An innovation counselor pedagogical tool, Suicide Risk Assessment…

Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

2011-01-01

Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

Errors Using Observational Methods for Ergonomics Assessment in Real Practice.

PubMed

Diego-Mas, Jose-Antonio; Alcaide-Marzal, Jorge; Poveda-Bautista, Rocio

2017-12-01

The degree in which practitioners use the observational methods for musculoskeletal disorder risks assessment correctly was evaluated. Ergonomics assessment is a key issue for the prevention and reduction of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in workplaces. Observational assessment methods appear to be better matched to the needs of practitioners than direct measurement methods, and for this reason, they are the most widely used techniques in real work situations. Despite the simplicity of observational methods, those responsible for assessing risks using these techniques should have some experience and know-how in order to be able to use them correctly. We analyzed 442 risk assessments of actual jobs carried out by 290 professionals from 20 countries to determine their reliability. The results show that approximately 30% of the assessments performed by practitioners had errors. In 13% of the assessments, the errors were severe and completely invalidated the results of the evaluation. Despite the simplicity of observational method, approximately 1 out of 3 assessments conducted by practitioners in actual work situations do not adequately evaluate the level of potential musculoskeletal disorder risks. This study reveals a problem that suggests greater effort is needed to ensure that practitioners possess better knowledge of the techniques used to assess work-related musculoskeletal disorder risks and that laws and regulations should be stricter as regards qualifications and skills required by professionals.

Risk evaluation of highway engineering project based on the fuzzy-AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qian; Wei, Yajun

2011-10-01

Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with technology, economy, management and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it needs to strengthen risk management urgently. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of highway engineering, and the study of the basic theory on risk evaluation, the paper built an index system of highway project risk evaluation. Besides based on fuzzy mathematics principle, analytical hierarchy process was used and as a result, the model of the comprehensive appraisal method of fuzzy and AHP was set up for the risk evaluation of express way concessionary project. The validity and the practicability of the risk evaluation of expressway concessionary project were verified after the model was applied to the practice of a project.

Risk Assessment on Constructors during Over-water Riprap Based on Entropy Weight and FAHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tongqing; Li, Liang; Liang, Zelong; Mao, Tian; Shao, Weifeng

2017-07-01

Being aimed at waterway regulation engineering, there exist risks of over-water riprap for constructors which keeps uncertainty and complexity. For the purpose of evaluating the possibility and consequence, this paper utilizes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with abbreviation of FAHP to do empowerment on the related risk indicators, constructs FAHP under entropy weight and establishes relevant evaluation factor set and evaluation language for constructors during over-water riprap construction process. Through doing risk probability estimation and risk consequence size evaluation on the factor of constructors, this paper introduces this model into risk analysis on constructors during over-water riprap of Ching River waterway regulation project. Results show that evaluation of this method is so credible that it could be utilized in practical engineering.

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Information and problem report usage in system saftey engineering division

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrissey, Stephen J.

1990-01-01

Five basic problems or question areas are examined. They are as follows: (1) Evaluate adequacy of current problem/performance data base; (2) Evaluate methods of performing trend analysis; (3) Methods and sources of data for probabilistic risk assessment; and (4) How is risk assessment documentation upgraded and/or updated. The fifth problem was to provide recommendations for each of the above four areas.

A method for evaluating competency in assessment and management of suicide risk.

PubMed

Hung, Erick K; Binder, Renée L; Fordwood, Samantha R; Hall, Stephen E; Cramer, Robert J; McNiel, Dale E

2012-01-01

Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). The authors developed the CAI-S on the basis of the literature on suicide risk-assessment and management, and consultation with faculty focus groups from three sites in a large academic psychiatry department. The CAI-S structures faculty ratings regarding interviewing and data collection, case formulation and presentation, treatment-planning, and documentation. To evaluate the CAI-S, 31 faculty members used it to rate the performance of 31 learners (26 psychiatric residents and 5 clinical psychology interns) who participated in an OSCE. After interviewing a standardized patient, learners presented their risk-assessment findings and treatment plans. Faculty used the CAI-S to structure feedback to the learners. In a subsidiary study of interrater reliability, six faculty members rated video-recorded suicide risk-assessments. The CAI-S showed good internal consistency, reliability, and interrater reliability. Concurrent validity was supported by the finding that CAI-S ratings were higher for senior learners than junior learners, and were higher for learners with more clinical experience with suicidal patients than learners with less clinical experience. Faculty and learners rated the method as helpful for structuring feedback and supervision. The findings support the usefulness of the CAI-S for evaluating competency in suicide risk-assessment and management.

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2010-01-01

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multifactor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multi-factor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.

An evaluation of automatic coronary artery calcium scoring methods with cardiac CT using the orCaScore framework.

PubMed

Wolterink, Jelmer M; Leiner, Tim; de Vos, Bob D; Coatrieux, Jean-Louis; Kelm, B Michael; Kondo, Satoshi; Salgado, Rodrigo A; Shahzad, Rahil; Shu, Huazhong; Snoeren, Miranda; Takx, Richard A P; van Vliet, Lucas J; van Walsum, Theo; Willems, Tineke P; Yang, Guanyu; Zheng, Yefeng; Viergever, Max A; Išgum, Ivana

2016-05-01

The amount of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a strong and independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. In clinical practice, CAC is manually identified and automatically quantified in cardiac CT using commercially available software. This is a tedious and time-consuming process in large-scale studies. Therefore, a number of automatic methods that require no interaction and semiautomatic methods that require very limited interaction for the identification of CAC in cardiac CT have been proposed. Thus far, a comparison of their performance has been lacking. The objective of this study was to perform an independent evaluation of (semi)automatic methods for CAC scoring in cardiac CT using a publicly available standardized framework. Cardiac CT exams of 72 patients distributed over four CVD risk categories were provided for (semi)automatic CAC scoring. Each exam consisted of a noncontrast-enhanced calcium scoring CT (CSCT) and a corresponding coronary CT angiography (CCTA) scan. The exams were acquired in four different hospitals using state-of-the-art equipment from four major CT scanner vendors. The data were divided into 32 training exams and 40 test exams. A reference standard for CAC in CSCT was defined by consensus of two experts following a clinical protocol. The framework organizers evaluated the performance of (semi)automatic methods on test CSCT scans, per lesion, artery, and patient. Five (semi)automatic methods were evaluated. Four methods used both CSCT and CCTA to identify CAC, and one method used only CSCT. The evaluated methods correctly detected between 52% and 94% of CAC lesions with positive predictive values between 65% and 96%. Lesions in distal coronary arteries were most commonly missed and aortic calcifications close to the coronary ostia were the most common false positive errors. The majority (between 88% and 98%) of correctly identified CAC lesions were assigned to the correct artery. Linearly weighted Cohen's kappa for patient CVD risk categorization by the evaluated methods ranged from 0.80 to 1.00. A publicly available standardized framework for the evaluation of (semi)automatic methods for CAC identification in cardiac CT is described. An evaluation of five (semi)automatic methods within this framework shows that automatic per patient CVD risk categorization is feasible. CAC lesions at ambiguous locations such as the coronary ostia remain challenging, but their detection had limited impact on CVD risk determination.

Investigation on circular asymmetry of geographical distribution in cancer mortality of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors based on risk maps: analysis of spatial survival data.

PubMed

Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofumi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

2012-05-01

While there is a considerable number of studies on the relationship between the risk of disease or death and direct exposure from the atomic bomb in Hiroshima, the risk for indirect exposure caused by residual radioactivity has not yet been fully evaluated. One of the reasons is that risk assessments have utilized estimated radiation doses, but that it is difficult to estimate indirect exposure. To evaluate risks for other causes, including indirect radiation exposure, as well as direct exposure, a statistical method is described here that evaluates risk with respect to individual location at the time of atomic bomb exposure instead of radiation dose. In addition, it is also considered to split the risks into separate risks due to direct exposure and other causes using radiation dose. The proposed method is applied to a cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. The resultant contour map suggests that the region west to the hypocenter has a higher risk compared to other areas. This in turn suggests that there exists an impact on risk that cannot be explained by direct exposure.

SYNTHESIS OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLIST EXPOSURE TO RISK AT AREAWIDE LEVELS AND ON SPECIFIC TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

This report summarizes the variety of methods used to estimate and evaluate exposure to risk in pedestrian and bicyclist safety analyses. In the literature, the most common definition of risk was a measure of the probability of a crash to occur given...

[Impact of water pollution risk in water transfer project based on fault tree analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-Chang; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Li-Min; Li, Dai-Qing; Fan, Xiu-Ying; Deng, Hong-Bing

2009-09-15

The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored. The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event. Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body. The result indicates, that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373, which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53 mg/L COD, 4.57 mg/L NH4(+) -N and 0.066 mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene, respectively. The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe

2005-09-01

An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or “discount” methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining humancentered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings withmore » HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI.« less

[Evaluation of public health risk. A new instrument for environmental management in Chile].

PubMed

Matus C, Patricia

2011-08-01

One of the main challenges in environmental management is to prevent the public health impact of projects that can cause pollution. To tackle this problem, the new Chilean bill on environmental management has defined the need to determine the potential health risks of a given Project. This paper gives a summary of the method used for risk evaluation and its evolution. Its incorporation in the Environmental Impact Evaluation System is proposed, to guarantee an effective prevention of the potential risks on health of new projects.

Smarten

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, C.; Bennett, E.; Chappell, M.; Steevens, J.; Depledge, M.; Goss, G.; Goudey, S.; Kaczmar, S.; O'Brien, N.; Picado, A.; Ramadan, A. B.

Traditional risk assessment procedures are inadequate for predicting the ecological risks associated with the release of nanomaterials (NM) into the environment. The root of the problem lies in an inadequate application of solid phase chemical principles (e.g. particle size, shape, functionality) for the risk assessment of NMs. Thus, the "solubility" paradigm used to evaluate the risks associated with other classes of contaminants must be replaced by a "dispersivity" paradigm for evaluating the risks associated with NM. The pace of development of NM will exceed the capacity to conduct adequate risk assessments using current methods and approaches. Each NM product will be available in a variety of size classes and with different surface functionalizations; probably requiring multiple risk assessments for each NM. The "SMARTEN" approach to risk assessment involves having risk assessors play a more proactive role in evaluating all aspects of the NM life cycle and in making decisions to develop lower risk NM products. Improved problem formulation could come from considering the chemical, physical and biological properties of NMs. New effects assessment techniques are needed to evaluate cellular binding and uptake potential, such as biological assays for binding to macromolecules or organelles, phagocytic activity, and active/passive uptake processes. Tests should be developed to evaluate biological effects with multiple species across a range of trophic levels. Despite our best efforts to assess the risks associated with NM, previous experience indicates that some NM products will enter the environment and cause biological effects. Therefore, risk assessors should support programs for reconnaissance and surveillance to detect the impacts of NM before irreversible damage occurs. New analytical tools are needed for surveillance, including sensors for detecting NMs, passive sampling systems, and improved methods for separation and characterization of NMs in environmental matrices, as well as biomarker techniques to evaluate exposure to NMs. Risk assessors should use this information to refine data quality, determine future risk assessment objectives and to communicate interim conclusions to a wide group of stakeholders.1

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Cancer.gov

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

Combining glass box and black box evaluations in the identification of heart disease risk factors and their temporal relations from clinical records.

PubMed

Grouin, Cyril; Moriceau, Véronique; Zweigenbaum, Pierre

2015-12-01

The determination of risk factors and their temporal relations in natural language patient records is a complex task which has been addressed in the i2b2/UTHealth 2014 shared task. In this context, in most systems it was broadly decomposed into two sub-tasks implemented by two components: entity detection, and temporal relation determination. Task-level ("black box") evaluation is relevant for the final clinical application, whereas component-level evaluation ("glass box") is important for system development and progress monitoring. Unfortunately, because of the interaction between entity representation and temporal relation representation, glass box and black box evaluation cannot be managed straightforwardly at the same time in the setting of the i2b2/UTHealth 2014 task, making it difficult to assess reliably the relative performance and contribution of the individual components to the overall task. To identify obstacles and propose methods to cope with this difficulty, and illustrate them through experiments on the i2b2/UTHealth 2014 dataset. We outline several solutions to this problem and examine their requirements in terms of adequacy for component-level and task-level evaluation and of changes to the task framework. We select the solution which requires the least modifications to the i2b2 evaluation framework and illustrate it with our system. This system identifies risk factor mentions with a CRF system complemented by hand-designed patterns, identifies and normalizes temporal expressions through a tailored version of the Heideltime tool, and determines temporal relations of each risk factor with a One Rule classifier. Giving a fixed value to the temporal attribute in risk factor identification proved to be the simplest way to evaluate the risk factor detection component independently. This evaluation method enabled us to identify the risk factor detection component as most contributing to the false negatives and false positives of the global system. This led us to redirect further effort to this component, focusing on medication detection, with gains of 7 to 20 recall points and of 3 to 6 F-measure points depending on the corpus and evaluation. We proposed a method to achieve a clearer glass box evaluation of risk factor detection and temporal relation detection in clinical texts, which can provide an example to help system development in similar tasks. This glass box evaluation was instrumental in refocusing our efforts and obtaining substantial improvements in risk factor detection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the environmental impact of different AOPs: risk indexes.

PubMed

Giménez, Jaime; Bayarri, Bernardí; González, Óscar; Malato, Sixto; Peral, José; Esplugas, Santiago

2014-12-31

Today, environmental impact associated with pollution treatment is a matter of great concern. A method is proposed for evaluating environmental risk associated with Advanced Oxidation Processes (AOPs) applied to wastewater treatment. The method is based on the type of pollution (wastewater, solids, air or soil) and on materials and energy consumption. An Environmental Risk Index (E), constructed from numerical criteria provided, is presented for environmental comparison of processes and/or operations. The Operation Environmental Risk Index (EOi) for each of the unit operations involved in the process and the Aspects Environmental Risk Index (EAj) for process conditions were also estimated. Relative indexes were calculated to evaluate the risk of each operation (E/NOP) or aspect (E/NAS) involved in the process, and the percentage of the maximum achievable for each operation and aspect was found. A practical application of the method is presented for two AOPs: photo-Fenton and heterogeneous photocatalysis with suspended TiO2 in Solarbox. The results report the environmental risks associated with each process, so that AOPs tested and the operations involved with them can be compared.

The Aristotle method: a new concept to evaluate quality of care based on complexity.

PubMed

Lacour-Gayet, François; Clarke, David R

2005-06-01

Evaluation of quality of care is a duty of the modern medical practice. A reliable method of quality evaluation able to compare fairly institutions and inform a patient and his family of the potential risk of a procedure is clearly needed. It is now well recognized that any method that purports to evaluate quality of care should include a case mix/risk stratification method. No valuable method was available until recently in pediatric cardiac surgery. The Aristotle method is a new concept of evaluation of quality of care in congenital heart surgery based on the complexity of the surgical procedures. Involving a panel of expert surgeons, the project started in 1999 and included 50 pediatric surgeons from 23 countries. The basic score adjusts the complexity of a given procedure and is calculated as the sum of potential for mortality, potential for morbidity and anticipated technical difficulty. The Comprehensive Score further adjusts the complexity according to the specific patient characteristics (anatomy, associated procedures, co-morbidity, etc.). The Aristotle method is original as it introduces several new concepts: the calculated complexity is a constant for a given patient all over the world; complexity is an independent value and risk is a variable depending on the performance; and Performance = Complexity x Outcome. The Aristotle score is a good vector of communication between patients, doctors and insurance companies and may stimulate the quality and the organization of heath care in our field and in others.

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

A fuzzy linguistic model for the prediction of carpal tunnel syndrome risks in an occupational environment.

PubMed

Bell, P M; Crumpton, L

1997-08-01

This research presents the development and evaluation of a fuzzy linguistic model designated to predict the risk of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in an occupational setting. CTS has become one of the largest problems facing ergonomists and the medical community because it is developing in epidemic proportions within the occupational environment. In addition, practitioners are interested in identifying accurate methods for evaluating the risk of CTS in an occupational setting. It is hypothesized that many factors impact an individual's likelihood of developing CTS and the eventual development of CTS. This disparity in the occurrence of CTS for workers with similar backgrounds and work activities has confused researchers and has been a stumbling block in the development of a model for widespread use in evaluating the development of CTS. Thus this research is an attempt to develop a method that can be used to predict the likelihood of CTS risk in a variety of environments. The intent is that this model will be applied eventually in an occupational setting, thus model development was focused on a method that provided a usable interface and the desired system inputs can also be obtained without the benefit of a medical practitioner. The methodology involves knowledge acquisition to identify and categorize a holistic set of risk factors that include task-related, personal, and organizational categories. The determination of relative factor importance was accomplished using analytic hierarchy processing (AHP) analysis. Finally a mathematical representation of the CTS risk was accomplished by utilizing fuzzy set theory in order to quantify linguistic input parameters. An evaluation of the model including determination of sensitivity and specificity is conducted and the results of the model indicate that the results are fairly accurate and this method has the potential for widespread use. A significant aspect of this research is the comparison of this technique to other methods for assessing presence of CTS. The results of this evaluation technique are compared with more traditional methods for assessing the presence of CTS.

Economic evaluation of targeted cancer interventions: critical review and recommendations.

PubMed

Elkin, Elena B; Marshall, Deborah A; Kulin, Nathalie A; Ferrusi, Ilia L; Hassett, Michael J; Ladabaum, Uri; Phillips, Kathryn A

2011-10-01

Scientific advances have improved our ability to target cancer interventions to individuals who will benefit most and spare the risks and costs to those who will derive little benefit or even be harmed. Several approaches are currently used for targeting interventions for cancer risk reduction, screening, and treatment, including risk prediction algorithms for identifying high-risk subgroups and diagnostic tests for tumor markers and germline genetic mutations. Economic evaluation can inform decisions about the use of targeted interventions, which may be more costly than traditional strategies. However, assessing the impact of a targeted intervention on costs and health outcomes requires explicit consideration of the method of targeting. In this study, we describe the importance of this principle by reviewing published cost-effectiveness analyses of targeted interventions in breast cancer. Few studies we identified explicitly evaluated the relationships among the method of targeting, the accuracy of the targeting test, and outcomes of the targeted intervention. Those that did found that characteristics of targeting tests had a substantial impact on outcomes. We posit that the method of targeting and the outcomes of a targeted intervention are inextricably linked and recommend that cost-effectiveness analyses of targeted interventions explicitly consider costs and outcomes of the method of targeting.

Customer-Specific Transaction Risk Management in E-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruch, Markus; Sackmann, Stefan

Increasing potential for turnover in e-commerce is inextricably linked with an increase in risk. Online retailers (e-tailers), aiming for a company-wide value orientation should manage this risk. However, current approaches to risk management either use average retail prices elevated by an overall risk premium or restrict the payment methods offered to customers. Thus, they neglect customer-specific value and risk attributes and leave turnover potentials unconsidered. To close this gap, an innovative valuation model is proposed in this contribution that integrates customer-specific risk and potential turnover. The approach presented evaluates different payment methods using their risk-turnover characteristic, provides a risk-adjusted decision basis for selecting payment methods and allows e-tailers to derive automated risk management decisions per customer and transaction without reducing turnover potential.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

A risk analysis for production processes with disposable bioreactors.

PubMed

Merseburger, Tobias; Pahl, Ina; Müller, Daniel; Tanner, Markus

2014-01-01

: Quality management systems are, as a rule, tightly defined systems that conserve existing processes and therefore guarantee compliance with quality standards. But maintaining quality also includes introducing new enhanced production methods and making use of the latest findings of bioscience. The advances in biotechnology and single-use manufacturing methods for producing new drugs especially impose new challenges on quality management, as quality standards have not yet been set. New methods to ensure patient safety have to be established, as it is insufficient to rely only on current rules. A concept of qualification, validation, and manufacturing procedures based on risk management needs to be established and realized in pharmaceutical production. The chapter starts with an introduction to the regulatory background of the manufacture of medicinal products. It then continues with key methods of risk management. Hazards associated with the production of medicinal products with single-use equipment are described with a focus on bioreactors, storage containers, and connecting devices. The hazards are subsequently evaluated and criteria for risk evaluation are presented. This chapter concludes with aspects of industrial application of quality risk management.

Proposed Standardized Neurological Endpoints for Cardiovascular Clinical Trials: An Academic Research Consortium Initiative.

PubMed

Lansky, Alexandra J; Messé, Steven R; Brickman, Adam M; Dwyer, Michael; Bart van der Worp, H; Lazar, Ronald M; Pietras, Cody G; Abrams, Kevin J; McFadden, Eugene; Petersen, Nils H; Browndyke, Jeffrey; Prendergast, Bernard; Ng, Vivian G; Cutlip, Donald E; Kapadia, Samir; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Linke, Axel; Scala Moy, Claudia; Schofer, Joachim; van Es, Gerrit-Anne; Virmani, Renu; Popma, Jeffrey; Parides, Michael K; Kodali, Susheel; Bilello, Michel; Zivadinov, Robert; Akar, Joseph; Furie, Karen L; Gress, Daryl; Voros, Szilard; Moses, Jeffrey; Greer, David; Forrest, John K; Holmes, David; Kappetein, Arie P; Mack, Michael; Baumbach, Andreas

2018-05-14

Surgical and catheter-based cardiovascular procedures and adjunctive pharmacology have an inherent risk of neurological complications. The current diversity of neurological endpoint definitions and ascertainment methods in clinical trials has led to uncertainties in the neurological risk attributable to cardiovascular procedures and inconsistent evaluation of therapies intended to prevent or mitigate neurological injury. Benefit-risk assessment of such procedures should be on the basis of an evaluation of well-defined neurological outcomes that are ascertained with consistent methods and capture the full spectrum of neurovascular injury and its clinical effect. The Neurologic Academic Research Consortium is an international collaboration intended to establish consensus on the definition, classification, and assessment of neurological endpoints applicable to clinical trials of a broad range of cardiovascular interventions. Systematic application of the proposed definitions and assessments will improve our ability to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular procedures and the safety and effectiveness of preventive therapies.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

Selecting Students at Risk of Academic Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cummings, Kelli D.; Smolkowski, Keith

2015-01-01

This paper aims to translate for practitioners the principles and methods for evaluating screening measures in education, including benchmark goals and cut points, from our technical manuscript "Evaluation of Diagnostic Systems: The Selection of Students at Risk of Academic Difficulties" (this issue). We offer a brief description of…

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

Method for the measurement of susceptibility to decubitus ulcer formation.

PubMed

Meijer, J H; Schut, G L; Ribbe, M W; Goovaerts, H G; Nieuwenhuys, R; Reulen, J P; Schneider, H

1989-09-01

A method for measuring the susceptibility of a patient to develop decubitus ulcers is described and initially evaluated. It is based on an indirect, noninvasive measurement of the transient regional blood flow response after a test pressure load which simulates the external stimulus for pressure-sore formation. This method was developed to determine the individual risk of a patient and to study the subfactors which contribute to the susceptibility. This would also offer the possibility of evaluating the effect of preventive treatment aimed at reducing the susceptibility. The method was found to discriminate between preselected elderly patients at risk on the one hand, and non-risk patients and healthy young adults on the other hand. No differences in blood flow responses were found between the non-risk elderly patients and the healthy young adults. This suggests that age per se is not a factor in the formation of pressure sores. In the risk group the recovery time after pressure relief was found to be three times as long as the duration of the pressure exercise. This indicates that the recovery time after pressure exercise may be as important as the period of pressure exercise in deducing the risk of developing decubitus ulcers.

Testing and refining the Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) web-based platform for evaluating the reliability and relevance of in vivo toxicity studies.

PubMed

Beronius, Anna; Molander, Linda; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina; Hanberg, Annika

2018-05-28

The Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) web-based platform was developed to promote and facilitate structure and transparency in the evaluation of ecotoxicity and toxicity studies for hazard and risk assessment of chemicals. The platform includes sets of criteria and a colour-coding tool for evaluating the reliability and relevance of individual studies. The SciRAP method for evaluating in vivo toxicity studies was first published in 2014 and the aim of the work presented here was to evaluate and develop that method further. Toxicologists and risk assessors from different sectors and geographical areas were invited to test the SciRAP criteria and tool on a specific set of in vivo toxicity studies and to provide feedback concerning the scientific soundness and user-friendliness of the SciRAP approach. The results of this expert assessment were used to refine and improve both the evaluation criteria and the colour-coding tool. It is expected that the SciRAP web-based platform will continue to be developed and enhanced to keep up to date with the needs of end-users. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

PubMed

Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

2011-05-15

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating the Ergonomics Techniques with Multi Criteria Decision Making as a New Approach for Risk Management: An Assessment of Repetitive Tasks -Entropy Case Study.

PubMed

Khandan, Mohammad; Nili, Majid; Koohpaei, Alireza; Mosaferchi, Saeedeh

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the health work decision makers need to analyze a huge amount of data and consider many conflicting evaluation criteria and sub-criteria. Therefore, an ergonomic evaluation in the work environment in order to the control occupational disorders is considered as the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. In this study, the ergonomic risks factors, which may influence health, were evaluated in a manufacturing company in 2014. Then entropy method was applied to prioritize the different risk factors. This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach and 13 tasks were included from total number of employees who were working in the seven halls of an ark opal manufacturing (240). Required information was gathered by the demographic questionnaire and Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) method for repetitive task assessment. In addition, entropy was used to prioritize the risk factors based on the ergonomic control needs. The total exposure score based on the ART method calculated was equal to 30.07 ±12.43. Data analysis illustrated that 179 cases (74.6% of tasks) were in the high level of risk area and 13.8% were in the medium level of risk. ART- entropy results revealed that based on the weighted factors, higher value belongs to grip factor and the lowest value was related to neck and hand posture and duration. Based on the limited financial resources, it seems that MCDM in many challenging situations such as control procedures and priority approaches could be used successfully. Other MCDM methods for evaluating and prioritizing the ergonomic problems are recommended.

Visualization of risk of radiogenic second cancer in the organs and tissues of the human body.

PubMed

Zhang, Rui; Mirkovic, Dragan; Newhauser, Wayne D

2015-04-28

Radiogenic second cancer is a common late effect in long term cancer survivors. Currently there are few methods or tools available to visually evaluate the spatial distribution of risks of radiogenic late effects in the human body. We developed a risk visualization method and demonstrated it for radiogenic second cancers in tissues and organs of one patient treated with photon volumetric modulated arc therapy and one patient treated with proton craniospinal irradiation. Treatment plans were generated using radiotherapy treatment planning systems (TPS) and dose information was obtained from TPS. Linear non-threshold risk coefficients for organs at risk of second cancer incidence were taken from the Biological Effects of Ionization Radiation VII report. Alternative risk models including linear exponential model and linear plateau model were also examined. The predicted absolute lifetime risk distributions were visualized together with images of the patient anatomy. The risk distributions of second cancer for the two patients were visually presented. The risk distributions varied with tissue, dose, dose-risk model used, and the risk distribution could be similar to or very different from the dose distribution. Our method provides a convenient way to directly visualize and evaluate the risks of radiogenic second cancer in organs and tissues of the human body. In the future, visual assessment of risk distribution could be an influential determinant for treatment plan scoring.

Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Gilioli, G; Schrader, G; Baker, R H A; Ceglarska, E; Kertész, V K; Lövei, G; Navajas, M; Rossi, V; Tramontini, S; van Lenteren, J C

2014-01-15

The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis. © 2013.

Evaluation and recommendation of sensitivity analysis methods for application to Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation models.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Christopher Frey, H; Zheng, Junyu

2006-11-01

Sensitivity analyses of exposure or risk models can help identify the most significant factors to aid in risk management or to prioritize additional research to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. However, sensitivity analysis is challenged by non-linearity, interactions between inputs, and multiple days or time scales. Selected sensitivity analysis methods are evaluated with respect to their applicability to human exposure models with such features using a testbed. The testbed is a simplified version of a US Environmental Protection Agency's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. The methods evaluated include the Pearson and Spearman correlation, sample and rank regression, analysis of variance, Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST), and Sobol's method. The first five methods are known as "sampling-based" techniques, wheras the latter two methods are known as "variance-based" techniques. The main objective of the test cases was to identify the main and total contributions of individual inputs to the output variance. Sobol's method and FAST directly quantified these measures of sensitivity. Results show that sensitivity of an input typically changed when evaluated under different time scales (e.g., daily versus monthly). All methods provided similar insights regarding less important inputs; however, Sobol's method and FAST provided more robust insights with respect to sensitivity of important inputs compared to the sampling-based techniques. Thus, the sampling-based methods can be used in a screening step to identify unimportant inputs, followed by application of more computationally intensive refined methods to a smaller set of inputs. The implications of time variation in sensitivity results for risk management are briefly discussed.

Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

Suicide in Children Younger than Age Fourteen: Clinical Judgment and Assessment Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wise, Amy J.; Spengler, Paul M.

1997-01-01

Discusses the importance of accurate information about childhood suicide to prevent clinical judgment errors. Describes available methods for evaluating suicide risk in children. Looks at myths and misconceptions surrounding childhood suicide; risk factors, such as family dysfunction and distress; and evaluation techniques, such as interviews and…

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

Are there effective interventions to prevent hospital-acquired Legionnaires' disease or to reduce environmental reservoirs of Legionella in hospitals? A systematic review.

PubMed

Almeida, Dejanira; Cristovam, Elisabete; Caldeira, Daniel; Ferreira, Joaquim J; Marques, Teresa

2016-11-01

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is recognized as an important hospital-acquired disease. Despite the several methods available, the optimal method to control hospital-acquired LD is not well established and their overall efficacy requires further evaluation. To systematically review all controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk of developing the disease and its effects on environmental colonization. A database search was performed through PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (inception-November 2014). Eligible studies included all controlled studies evaluating interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk or evaluating the effect on environmental colonization. Both individual and pooled risk estimates were reported using risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). There were no studies evaluating the risk reduction in hospital-acquired LD, but 4 studies evaluated the influence of copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light in the reduction of environmental reservoirs of Legionella. The meta-analysis showed a significant 95% risk reduction of Legionella positivity in environmental samples using copper-silver ionization (RR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01-0.17) and 97% risk reduction with ultraviolet light (RR, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.002-0.41). The best available evidence suggests that copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light are effective in reducing Legionella positivity in environmental samples. Nevertheless, the low quality of evidence weakens the robustness of conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

2018-01-01

The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

A unified framework for evaluating the risk of re-identification of text de-identification tools.

PubMed

Scaiano, Martin; Middleton, Grant; Arbuckle, Luk; Kolhatkar, Varada; Peyton, Liam; Dowling, Moira; Gipson, Debbie S; El Emam, Khaled

2016-10-01

It has become regular practice to de-identify unstructured medical text for use in research using automatic methods, the goal of which is to remove patient identifying information to minimize re-identification risk. The metrics commonly used to determine if these systems are performing well do not accurately reflect the risk of a patient being re-identified. We therefore developed a framework for measuring the risk of re-identification associated with textual data releases. We apply the proposed evaluation framework to a data set from the University of Michigan Medical School. Our risk assessment results are then compared with those that would be obtained using a typical contemporary micro-average evaluation of recall in order to illustrate the difference between the proposed evaluation framework and the current baseline method. We demonstrate how this framework compares against common measures of the re-identification risk associated with an automated text de-identification process. For the probability of re-identification using our evaluation framework we obtained a mean value for direct identifiers of 0.0074 and a mean value for quasi-identifiers of 0.0022. The 95% confidence interval for these estimates were below the relevant thresholds. The threshold for direct identifier risk was based on previously used approaches in the literature. The threshold for quasi-identifiers was determined based on the context of the data release following commonly used de-identification criteria for structured data. Our framework attempts to correct for poorly distributed evaluation corpora, accounts for the data release context, and avoids the often optimistic assumptions that are made using the more traditional evaluation approach. It therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the true probability of re-identification. This framework should be used as a basis for computing re-identification risk in order to more realistically evaluate future text de-identification tools. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Epidemiologic research using probabilistic outcome definitions.

PubMed

Cai, Bing; Hennessy, Sean; Lo Re, Vincent; Small, Dylan S

2015-01-01

Epidemiologic studies using electronic healthcare data often define the presence or absence of binary clinical outcomes by using algorithms with imperfect specificity, sensitivity, and positive predictive value. This results in misclassification and bias in study results. We describe and evaluate a new method called probabilistic outcome definition (POD) that uses logistic regression to estimate the probability of a clinical outcome using multiple potential algorithms and then uses multiple imputation to make valid inferences about the risk ratio or other epidemiologic parameters of interest. We conducted a simulation to evaluate the performance of the POD method with two variables that can predict the true outcome and compared the POD method with the conventional method. The simulation results showed that when the true risk ratio is equal to 1.0 (null), the conventional method based on a binary outcome provides unbiased estimates. However, when the risk ratio is not equal to 1.0, the traditional method, either using one predictive variable or both predictive variables to define the outcome, is biased when the positive predictive value is <100%, and the bias is very severe when the sensitivity or positive predictive value is poor (less than 0.75 in our simulation). In contrast, the POD method provides unbiased estimates of the risk ratio both when this measure of effect is equal to 1.0 and not equal to 1.0. Even when the sensitivity and positive predictive value are low, the POD method continues to provide unbiased estimates of the risk ratio. The POD method provides an improved way to define outcomes in database research. This method has a major advantage over the conventional method in that it provided unbiased estimates of risk ratios and it is easy to use. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

2007-01-01

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

Pollinator Protection Strategic Plan

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Developed by EPA, this ensures that pesticide risk assessments and risk management decisions use best available information and scientific methods, and full evaluation of pollinator protection when making registration decisions.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

Risks to Wildlife Populations from Chemicals and Other Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will review the history of risk assessment approaches for evaluating risks to wildlife populations and current research to improve methods for understanding population-level effects. The emphasis will be on issues related to pesticides, but other examples will ...

Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne

2010-01-01

Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

CHARACTERIZATION AND ISOLATION OF ORGANIC TOXICANTS IN WHOLE SEDIMENT TOXICITY INDENTIFICATION EVALUATIONS (TIES)

EPA Science Inventory

Development of whole sediment toxicity identification and evaluation (TIEs) methods has been under way for approximately four years. These methods are necessary to define cause and effect relationships in toxic sediments during ecological risk assessments, remediation and disposa...

Industrial machine systems risk assessment: a critical review of concepts and methods.

PubMed

Etherton, John R

2007-02-01

Reducing the risk of work-related death and injury to machine operators and maintenance personnel poses a continuing occupational safety challenge. The risk of injury from machinery in U.S. workplaces is high. Between 1992 and 2001, there were, on average, 520 fatalities per year involving machines and, on average, 3.8 cases per 10,000 workers of nonfatal caught-in-running-machine injuries involving lost workdays. A U.S. task group recently developed a technical reference guideline, ANSI B11 TR3, "A Guide to Estimate, Evaluate, & Reduce Risks Associated with Machine Tools," that is intended to bring machine tool risk assessment practice in the United States up to or above the level now required by the international standard, ISO 14121. The ANSI guideline emphasizes identifying tasks and hazards not previously considered, particularly those associated with maintenance; and it further emphasizes teamwork among line workers, engineers, and safety professionals. The value of this critical review of concepts and methods resides in (1) its linking current risk theory to machine system risk assessment and (2) its exploration of how various risk estimation tools translate into risk-informed decisions on industrial machine system design and use. The review was undertaken to set the stage for a field evaluation study on machine risk assessment among users of the ANSI B11 TR3 method.

[Selection of risk and diagnosis in diabetic polyneuropathy. Validation of method of new systems].

PubMed

Jurado, Jerónimo; Caula, Jacinto; Pou i Torelló, Josep Maria

2006-06-30

In a previous study we developed a specific algorithm, the polyneuropathy selection method (PSM) with 4 parameters (age, HDL-C, HbA1c, and retinopathy), to select patients at risk of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN). We also developed a simplified method for DPN diagnosis: outpatient polyneuropathy diagnosis (OPD), with 4 variables (symptoms and 3 objective tests). To confirm the validity of conventional tests for DPN diagnosis; to validate the discriminatory power of the PSM and the diagnostic value of OPD by evaluating their relationship to electrodiagnosis studies and objective clinical neurological assessment; and to evaluate the correlation of DPN and pro-inflammatory status. Cross-sectional, crossed association for PSM validation. Paired samples for OPD validation. Primary care in 3 counties. Random sample of 75 subjects from the type-2 diabetes census for PSM evaluation. Thirty DPN patients and 30 non-DPN patients (from 2 DM2 sub-groups in our earlier study) for OPD evaluation. The gold standard for DPN diagnosis will be studied by means of a clinical neurological study (symptoms, physical examination, and sensitivity tests) and electrodiagnosis studies (sensitivity and motor EMG). Risks of neuropathy, macroangiopathy and pro-inflammatory status (PCR, TNF soluble fraction and total TGF-beta1) will be studied in every subject. Electrodiagnosis studies should confirm the validity of conventional tests for DPN diagnosis. PSM and OPD will be valid methods for selecting patients at risk and diagnosing DPN. There will be a significant relationship between DPN and pro-inflammatory tests.

PATHOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF DIETARY METHYL MERCURY IN AMERICAN KESTRELS (FALCO SPARVERIUS)

EPA Science Inventory

This manuscript describes the development of ecological risk assessment methods to evaluate the relative and cumulative risks from toxic chemicals, with respect to risks from non-chemical stressors, on populations of aquatic life and aquatic-dependent wildlife at various spatial ...

Facility-specific radiation exposure risks and their implications for radiation workers at Department of Energy laboratories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Adam Christopher

This research develops a new framework for evaluating the occupational risks of exposure to hazardous substances in any setting where As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) practices are mandated or used. The evaluation is performed by developing a hypothesis-test-based procedure for evaluating the homogeneity of various epidemiological cohorts, and thus the appropriateness of the application of aggregate data-pooling techniques to those cohorts. A statistical methodology is then developed as an alternative to aggregate pooling for situations in which individual cohorts show heterogeneity between them and are thus unsuitable for pooled analysis. These methods are then applied to estimate the all-cancer mortality risks incurred by workers at four Department-of-Energy nuclear weapons laboratories. Both linear, no-threshold and dose-bin averaged risks are calculated and it is further shown that aggregate analysis tends to overestimate the risks with respect to those calculated by the methods developed in this work. The risk estimates developed in Chapter 2 are, in Chapter 3, applied to assess the risks to workers engaged in americium recovery operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The work described in Chapter 3 develops a full radiological protection assessment for the new americium recovery project, including development of exposure cases, creation and modification of MCNP5 models, development of a time-and-motion study, and the final synthesis of all data. This work also develops a new risk-based method of determining whether administrative controls, such as staffing increases, are ALARA-optimized. The EPA's estimate of the value of statistical life is applied to these risk estimates to determine a monetary value for risk. The rate of change of this "risk value" (marginal risk) is then compared with the rate of change of workers' compensations as additional workers are added to the project to reduce the dose (and therefore, presumably, risk) to each individual.

Proposed Standardized Neurological Endpoints for Cardiovascular Clinical Trials: An Academic Research Consortium Initiative.

PubMed

Lansky, Alexandra J; Messé, Steven R; Brickman, Adam M; Dwyer, Michael; van der Worp, H Bart; Lazar, Ronald M; Pietras, Cody G; Abrams, Kevin J; McFadden, Eugene; Petersen, Nils H; Browndyke, Jeffrey; Prendergast, Bernard; Ng, Vivian G; Cutlip, Donald E; Kapadia, Samir; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Linke, Axel; Moy, Claudia Scala; Schofer, Joachim; van Es, Gerrit-Anne; Virmani, Renu; Popma, Jeffrey; Parides, Michael K; Kodali, Susheel; Bilello, Michel; Zivadinov, Robert; Akar, Joseph; Furie, Karen L; Gress, Daryl; Voros, Szilard; Moses, Jeffrey; Greer, David; Forrest, John K; Holmes, David; Kappetein, Arie P; Mack, Michael; Baumbach, Andreas

2017-02-14

Surgical and catheter-based cardiovascular procedures and adjunctive pharmacology have an inherent risk of neurological complications. The current diversity of neurological endpoint definitions and ascertainment methods in clinical trials has led to uncertainties in the neurological risk attributable to cardiovascular procedures and inconsistent evaluation of therapies intended to prevent or mitigate neurological injury. Benefit-risk assessment of such procedures should be on the basis of an evaluation of well-defined neurological outcomes that are ascertained with consistent methods and capture the full spectrum of neurovascular injury and its clinical effect. The Neurologic Academic Research Consortium is an international collaboration intended to establish consensus on the definition, classification, and assessment of neurological endpoints applicable to clinical trials of a broad range of cardiovascular interventions. Systematic application of the proposed definitions and assessments will improve our ability to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular procedures and the safety and effectiveness of preventive therapies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

Integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment through the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from relevant stressors across different species. Integration is important to provide a more complete assessment of risk, but evaluating endpoints a...

Evaluation of Modified Risk Claim Advertising Formats for Camel Snus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fix, Brian V.; Adkison, Sarah E.; O'Connor, Richard J.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Cummings, K. Michael; Rees, Vaughan W.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.

2017-01-01

Objectives: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has regulatory authority for modified risk tobacco product advertising claims. To guide future regulatory efforts, we investigated how variations in modified risk claim advertisements influence consumer perceptions of product risk claims for Camel Snus. Methods: Young people and adults (15-65),…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Yang, Ji Wu

Failures in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) are considered to involve substantial risk whether a decision is made to either continue power operation while repair is being done, or to shut down the plant to undertake repairs. Technical specification action requirements usually require immediate plant shutdown in the case of multiple failures in the system (in some cases, immediate repair of one train is required when all AFW trains fail). This paper presents a probabilistic risk assessment-based method to quantitatively evaluate and compare both the risks of continued power operation and of shutting the plantmore » down, given known failures in the system. The method is applied to the AFW system for four different PWRs. Results show that the risk of continued power operation and plant shutdown both are substantial, but the latter is larger than the former over the usual repair time. This was proven for four plants with different designs: two operating Westinghouse plants, one operating Asea-Brown Boveri Combustion Engineering Plant, and one of evolutionary design. The method can be used to analyze individual plant design and to improve AFW action requirements using risk-informed evaluations.« less

Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

2015-05-01

Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

Cost-benefit analysis of biopsy methods for suspicious mammographic lesions; discussion 994-5.

PubMed

Fahy, B N; Bold, R J; Schneider, P D; Khatri, V; Goodnight, J E

2001-09-01

Stereotactic core biopsy (SCB) is more cost-effective than needle-localized biopsy (NLB) for evaluation and treatment of mammographic lesions. A computer-generated mathematical model was developed based on clinical outcome modeling to estimate costs accrued during evaluation and treatment of suspicious mammographic lesions. Total costs were determined for evaluation and subsequent treatment of cancer when either SCB or NLB was used as the initial biopsy method. Cost was estimated by the cumulative work relative value units accrued. The risk of malignancy based on the Breast Imaging Reporting Data System (BIRADS) score and mammographic suspicion of ductal carcinoma in situ were varied to simulate common clinical scenarios. Total cost accumulated during evaluation and subsequent surgical therapy (if required). Evaluation of BIRADS 5 lesions (highly suggestive, risk of malignancy = 90%) resulted in equivalent relative value units for both techniques (SCB, 15.54; NLB, 15.47). Evaluation of lesions highly suspicious for ductal carcinoma in situ yielded similar total treatment relative value units (SCB, 11.49; NLB, 10.17). Only for evaluation of BIRADS 4 lesions (suspicious abnormality, risk of malignancy = 34%) was SCB more cost-effective than NLB (SCB, 7.65 vs. NLB, 15.66). No difference in cost-benefit was found when lesions highly suggestive of malignancy (BIRADS 5) or those suspicious for ductal carcinoma in situ were evaluated initially with SCB vs. NLB, thereby disproving the hypothesis. Only for intermediate-risk lesions (BIRADS 4) did initial evaluation with SCB yield a greater cost savings than with NLB.

Evaluation of health risks for contaminated aquifers.

PubMed Central

Piver, W T; Jacobs, T L; Medina, M A

1997-01-01

This review focuses on progress in the development of transport models for heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, the use of predicted contaminant concentrations in groundwater for risk assessment for heterogeneous human populations, and the evaluation of aquifer remediation technologies. Major limitations and areas for continuing research for all methods presented in this review are identified. Images Figure 2. PMID:9114282

An Evaluation of a Comprehensive Mentoring Program on Selected At-Risk Students with Specific School Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington, Taren L.

2015-01-01

This study evaluated a comprehensive mentoring program on selected at-risk students with specific school problems (attendance, discipline referrals, and core area grades). The sample included youths in Grades 4-8 who differed on some characteristics including grade-level, ethnicity, and gender. For the purpose of this mixed methods study, the…

Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae): laboratory and open field trials to assess its specificity as biocontrol agent of Centaurea solstitialis (Asteraceae: Cardueae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Prospective biological control agents generally must be demonstrated to not pose risks to non-target plants. Laboratory experiments evaluating host plant specificity are the most common method of evaluating such risk; however, they are constrained by limitations of space and number of replicates, gi...

THE APPLICATION OF COMPUTATIONAL METHODS TO UNDERSTANDING THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF CHEMICALS IN THE ENVIRONMENT AND EVALUATING RISK: POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS

EPA Science Inventory

Computational approaches have been applied to studying the toxicology of environmental agents for more than 50 years. These approaches have been used to enhance existing data, to provide understanding of the mechanisms of toxicity and as an aid in the evaluation of risks. However...

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

IMPROVED RISK CHARACTERIZATION METHODS FOR DEVELOPING AQUATIC LIFE CRITERIA FOR NON-BIOACCUMULATIVE TOXICANTS

EPA Science Inventory

This project will use existing and developing information to evaluate and demonstrate procedures for more fully characterizing risks of non-bioaccumulative toxicants to aquatic organisms, and for incorporating these risks into aquatic life criteria. These efforts will address a v...

Application of quality risk management to set viable environmental monitoring frequencies in biotechnology processing and support areas.

PubMed

Sandle, Tim

2012-01-01

Environmental monitoring programs are essential for pharmaceutical facilities in order to assess the level of environmental control. For biotechnology facilities there is little advice as to the frequency at which viable environmental monitoring should be conducted. This paper outlines an approach, based on the principles of quality risk management, for the development of a framework from which monitoring frequencies can be determined. This involved the identification of common hazards and the evaluation those hazards in terms of the severity of contamination and the probability of contamination occurring. These elements of risk were evaluated for different cleanrooms and the relative risks ranked. Once the risk scores were calculated, the methods for detecting risks within the cleanrooms were assessed. Risk filtering was then used to group different cleanrooms based on their relative risks and detection methods against predetermined monitoring frequencies. Through use of case study examples, the paper presents the model and describes how appropriate frequencies for the environmental monitoring of cleanrooms can be set. Cleanrooms in which biotechnology pharmaceutical processing takes place are subject to environmental monitoring. The frequency at which such monitoring should be performed can be difficult to determine. This paper uses quality risk assessment methods to construct a framework for determining monitoring frequencies and illustrates the suitability of the framework through a case study.

Evaluation of Small Arms Range Soils for Metal Contamination and Lead Bioavailability

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-03

measured by an in vivo or in vitro method. Risk assessment and/or remediation of small arms ranges should therefore assume a high relative bioavailability of...lead for the eight soils was about 100% (108 ( 18% and 95 ( 6%, respectively) showing good agreement between both methods. Risk assessment and/ or...significant efforts in stewardship, environmental risk assessment , and reme- diation, so that training of personnel and future land use can be

A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

2012-01-30

Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Field-based evaluation of a male-specific (F+) RNA coliphage concentration method

EPA Science Inventory

Fecal contamination of water poses a significant risk to public health due to the potential presence of pathogens, including enteric viruses. Thus, sensitive, reliable and easy to use methods for the detection of microorganisms are needed to evaluate water quality. In this stud...

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

[Application of three control banding tools to occupational health risk assessment of titanium dioxide manufacturing factory].

PubMed

Xu, H D; Zhao, L; Tang, S C; Zhang, J; Kong, F L; Jia, G

2016-12-20

Objective: To explore and validate suitable risk assessment methods for titanium dioxide though applying three risk assessment tools for nanomaterials based on the control banding (CB) approach. Methods: A factory manufacturing titanium dioxide in Jinan city, Shandong province, was assessed using a quantitative exposure method and qualitative risk assessment methods in September, 2014. A condensation particle counter equipment was used to monitor the number concentration of particles at packaging workshop and jet milling workshop. We employed three control banding tools, including CB nanotool, Stoffenmanager nano and the Guidance on working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN) to evaluate the two workshops, then compared the evaluation results. Results: The increases of particle concentrations were generated directly by packaging and jet milling processes, the number concentration from (3.52±1.46) ×10(4)/cm(3) to (14.70±8.86) ×10(4)/cm(3) at packaging workshop and from (0.97±0.25) ×10(4)/cm(3) to (1.26±0.35) ×10(4)/cm(3) at milling workshop (both P <0.05) . The number concentrations at packaging workshop were higher than those at jet milling workshop during both manufacturing and break times (both P <0.05) . The results of CB nanotool showed that the risk level of the packaging workshop was classified as high and the risk level of the jet milling workshop was classified asmedium. The results of Stoffenmanager nano showed that the risk level of the packaging workshop was classified as medium and the risk level of the jet milling workshop was classified as low. The results of GWSNN showed that the risk level of packaging workshop was classified as high and the risk level of jet milling workshop was classified as low. Conclusion: The results of evaluation based on the three control banding tools are related and aligned with the results of quantitative monitoring, so they are all suitable to perform occupational health risk assessment on industrial scale production of titanium dioxideto some extent.

The WOMEN study: what is the optimal method for ischemia evaluation in women? A multi-center, prospective, randomized study to establish the optimal method for detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk in women at an intermediate-high pretest likelihood of CAD: study design.

PubMed

Mieres, Jennifer H; Shaw, Leslee J; Hendel, Robert C; Heller, Gary V

2009-01-01

Coronary artery disease remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in women. The optimal non-invasive test for evaluation of ischemic heart disease in women is unknown. Although current guidelines support the choice of the exercise tolerance test (ETT) as a first line test for women with a normal baseline ECG and adequate exercise capabilities, supportive data for this recommendation are controversial. The what is the optimal method for ischemia evaluation in women? (WOMEN) study was designed to determine the optimal non-invasive strategy for CAD risk detection of intermediate and high risk women presenting with chest pain or equivalent symptoms suggestive of ischemic heart disease. The study will prospectively compare the 2-year event rates in women capable of performing exercise treadmill testing or Tc-99 m tetrofosmin SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). The study will enroll women presenting for the evaluation of chest pain or anginal equivalent symptoms who are capable of performing >5 METs of exercise while at intermediate-high pretest risk for ischemic heart disease who will be randomized to either ETT testing alone or with Tc-99 m tetrofosmin SPECT MPI. The null hypothesis for this project is that the exercise ECG has the same negative predictive value for risk detection as gated myocardial perfusion SPECT in women. The primary aim is to compare 2-year cardiac event rates in women randomized to SPECT MPI to those randomized to ETT. The WOMEN study seeks to provide objective information for guidelines for the evaluation of symptomatic women with an intermediate-high likelihood for CAD.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

PubMed Central

Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

PubMed

Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

An assessment of the risk of foreign animal disease introduction into the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships.

PubMed

McElvaine, M D; McDowell, R M; Fite, R W; Miller, L

1993-12-01

The United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been exploring methods of quantitative risk assessment to support decision-making, provide risk management options and identify research needs. With current changes in world trade, regulatory decisions must have a scientific basis which is transparent, consistent, documentable and defensible. These quantitative risk assessment methods are described in an accompanying paper in this issue. In the present article, the authors provide an illustration by presenting an application of these methods. Prior to proposing changes in regulations, USDA officials requested an assessment of the risk of introduction of foreign animal disease to the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships. The risk assessment team used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this question. Quantitative risk assessment methods were used to estimate the amount of materials of foreign origin being sent to Alaskan landfills. This application of quantitative risk assessment illustrates the flexibility of the methods in addressing specific questions. By applying these methods, specific areas were identified where more scientific information and research were needed. Even with limited information, the risk assessment provided APHIS management with a scientific basis for a regulatory decision.

Detection of Cardiovascular Disease Risk's Level for Adults Using Naive Bayes Classifier.

PubMed

Miranda, Eka; Irwansyah, Edy; Amelga, Alowisius Y; Maribondang, Marco M; Salim, Mulyadi

2016-07-01

The number of deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and stroke is predicted to reach 23.3 million in 2030. As a contribution to support prevention of this phenomenon, this paper proposes a mining model using a naïve Bayes classifier that could detect cardiovascular disease and identify its risk level for adults. The process of designing the method began by identifying the knowledge related to the cardiovascular disease profile and the level of cardiovascular disease risk factors for adults based on the medical record, and designing a mining technique model using a naïve Bayes classifier. Evaluation of this research employed two methods: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity calculation as well as an evaluation session with cardiologists and internists. The characteristics of cardiovascular disease are identified by its primary risk factors. Those factors are diabetes mellitus, the level of lipids in the blood, coronary artery function, and kidney function. Class labels were assigned according to the values of these factors: risk level 1, risk level 2 and risk level 3. The evaluation of the classifier performance (accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) in this research showed that the proposed model predicted the class label of tuples correctly (above 80%). More than eighty percent of respondents (including cardiologists and internists) who participated in the evaluation session agree till strongly agreed that this research followed medical procedures and that the result can support medical analysis related to cardiovascular disease. The research showed that the proposed model achieves good performance for risk level detection of cardiovascular disease.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

PubMed Central

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arterial and Venous Doppler in Evaluation of the "At-Risk" Fetus.

PubMed

Turan, Sifa; Turan, Ozhan M

2017-09-01

Our practice utilizes Doppler ultrasound as one of the most objective and effective methods to assess at-risk pregnancies. This review will discuss the application of arterial and venous Doppler techniques in assessing and managing various diseases and conditions for high-risk fetuses.

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

An Evaluation of Behavioral Health Compliance and Microbial Risk Factors on Student Populations within a High-Density Campus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Decker, Jody F.; Slawson, Robin M.

2012-01-01

Objective: The aim of this Canadian study was to assess student behavioral response to disease transmission risk, while identifying high microbial deposition/transmission sites. Participants: A student survey was conducted during October 2009. Methods: The methods included a survey of students to assess use of health services, vaccination…

Functional Assessment-Based Interventions for Students with or At-Risk for High-Incidence Disabilities: Field Testing Single-Case Synthesis Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Common, Eric Alan; Lane, Kathleen Lynne; Pustejovsky, James E.; Johnson, Austin H.; Johl, Liane Elizabeth

2017-01-01

This systematic review investigated one systematic approach to designing, implementing, and evaluating functional assessment-based interventions (FABI) for use in supporting school-age students with or at-risk for high-incidence disabilities. We field tested several recently developed methods for single-case design syntheses. First, we appraised…

Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

PubMed

Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

2014-08-15

Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

PubMed Central

Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

2015-01-01

Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation. PMID:26528994

Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

2015-10-29

Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

Time-Tagged Risk/Reliability Assessment Program for Development and Operation of Space System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Yuki; Takegahara, Haruki; Aoyagi, Junichiro

We have investigated a new method of risk/reliability assessment for development and operation of space system. It is difficult to evaluate risk of spacecraft, because of long time operation, maintenance free and difficulty of test under the ground condition. Conventional methods are FMECA, FTA, ETA and miscellaneous. These are not enough to assess chronological anomaly and there is a problem to share information during R&D. A new method of risk and reliability assessment, T-TRAP (Time-tagged Risk/Reliability Assessment Program) is proposed as a management tool for the development and operation of space system. T-TRAP consisting of time-resolved Fault Tree and Criticality Analyses, upon occurrence of anomaly in the system, facilitates the responsible personnel to quickly identify the failure cause and decide corrective actions. This paper describes T-TRAP method and its availability.

TOTAL LYMPHOCYTE COUNT AND SERUM ALBUMIN AS PREDICTORS OF NUTRITIONAL RISK IN SURGICAL PATIENTS

PubMed Central

ROCHA, Naruna Pereira; FORTES, Renata Costa

2015-01-01

Background: Early detection of changes in nutritional status is important for a better approach to the surgical patient. There are several nutritional measures in clinical practice, but there is not a complete method for determining the nutritional status, so, health professionals should only choose the best method to use. Aim: To evaluate the total lymphocyte count and albumin as predictors of identification of nutritional risk in surgical patients. Methods: Prospective longitudinal study was conducted with 69 patients undergoing surgery of the gastrointestinal tract. The assessment of nutritional status was evaluated by objective methods (anthropometry and biochemical tests) and subjective methods (subjective global assessment). Results: All parameters used in the nutritional assessment detected a high prevalence of malnutrition, with the exception of BMI which detected only 7.2% (n=5). The albumin (p=0.01), the total lymphocytes count (p=0.02), the percentage of adequacy of skinfolds (p<0.002) and the subjective global assessment (p<0.001) proved to be useful as predictors of risk of postoperative complications, since the smaller the values of albumin and lymphocyte count and higher the score the subjective global assessment were higher risks of surgical complications. Conclusions: A high prevalence of malnutrition was found, except for BMI. The use of albumin and total lymphocyte count were good predictor for the risk of postoperative complications and when used with other methods of assessing the nutritional status, such as the subjective global assessment and the percentage of adequacy of skinfolds, can be useful for identification of nutritional risk and postoperative complications. PMID:26537145

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

PubMed

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the High Risk Groups for Suicide: A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

AMINI, Payam; AHMADINIA, Hasan; POOROLAJAL, Jalal; MOQADDASI AMIRI, Mohammad

2016-01-01

Background: We aimed to assess the high-risk group for suicide using different classification methods includinglogistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). Methods: We used the dataset of a study conducted to predict risk factors of completed suicide in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, in 2010. To evaluate the high-risk groups for suicide, LR, SVM, DT and ANN were performed. The applied methods were compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value, accuracy and the area under curve. Cochran-Q test was implied to check differences in proportion among methods. To assess the association between the observed and predicted values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were calculated. Results: Gender, age, and job were the most important risk factors for fatal suicide attempts in common for four methods. SVM method showed the highest accuracy 0.68 and 0.67 for training and testing sample, respectively. However, this method resulted in the highest specificity (0.67 for training and 0.68 for testing sample) and the highest sensitivity for training sample (0.85), but the lowest sensitivity for the testing sample (0.53). Cochran-Q test resulted in differences between proportions in different methods (P<0.001). The association of SVM predictions and observed values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were 0.239, 0.232 and 0.239, respectively. Conclusion: SVM had the best performance to classify fatal suicide attempts comparing to DT, LR and ANN. PMID:27957463

Evaluation of biologic occupational risk control practices: quality indicators development and validation.

PubMed

Takahashi, Renata Ferreira; Gryschek, Anna Luíza F P L; Izumi Nichiata, Lúcia Yasuko; Lacerda, Rúbia Aparecida; Ciosak, Suely Itsuko; Gir, Elucir; Padoveze, Maria Clara

2010-05-01

There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists' assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective. Copyright (c) 2010 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

siMS Score: Simple Method for Quantifying Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Soldatovic, Ivan; Vukovic, Rade; Culafic, Djordje; Gajic, Milan; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna

2016-01-01

To evaluate siMS score and siMS risk score, novel continuous metabolic syndrome scores as methods for quantification of metabolic status and risk. Developed siMS score was calculated using formula: siMS score = 2*Waist/Height + Gly/5.6 + Tg/1.7 + TAsystolic/130-HDL/1.02 or 1.28 (for male or female subjects, respectively). siMS risk score was calculated using formula: siMS risk score = siMS score * age/45 or 50 (for male or female subjects, respectively) * family history of cardio/cerebro-vascular events (event = 1.2, no event = 1). A sample of 528 obese and non-obese participants was used to validate siMS score and siMS risk score. Scores calculated as sum of z-scores (each component of metabolic syndrome regressed with age and gender) and sum of scores derived from principal component analysis (PCA) were used for evaluation of siMS score. Variants were made by replacing glucose with HOMA in calculations. Framingham score was used for evaluation of siMS risk score. Correlation between siMS score with sum of z-scores and weighted sum of factors of PCA was high (r = 0.866 and r = 0.822, respectively). Correlation between siMS risk score and log transformed Framingham score was medium to high for age groups 18+,30+ and 35+ (0.835, 0.707 and 0.667, respectively). siMS score and siMS risk score showed high correlation with more complex scores. Demonstrated accuracy together with superior simplicity and the ability to evaluate and follow-up individual patients makes siMS and siMS risk scores very convenient for use in clinical practice and research as well.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Communication of medical product risk: how effective is effective enough?

PubMed

Goldman, Stephen A

2004-01-01

Ever-increasing attention is being paid worldwide to the safety of medical products, and the risks associated with their use. The integral role of risk communication in overall risk management is demonstrated by several recent market withdrawals of drugs, in which a perceived incapability of healthcare systems to manage well-characterised, avoidable risks was a significant factor. With advances in clinical pharmacology, pharmacogenomics and pharmacoepidemiology expanding our knowledge of medical products, effective delivery of the latest safety-related information to health professionals and consumers becomes even more imperative. In this regard, it is important to evaluate whether current modes of risk communication lead to desired changes in relevant behaviours such as prescribing or drug monitoring, particularly in context with which achieved level of effectiveness is deemed acceptable. This is crucial, as there have been product-specific risk communication efforts that achieved a fair degree of success, yet were not seen as effective enough to prevent market withdrawal of the medical product in question. In the service of improving public health through enhanced risk communication, it is essential to critically assess current methods, both as to results achieved (or not), and whether each method is applicable to the various types of risks associated with medical product use. Furthermore, just as combining methods may well improve overall risk communication, there are societal and psychological factors that must be considered in attempting to maximise effectiveness. However, in assessing risk communication effectiveness, the particular benefit- risk relationship of any individual medical product must also be part of the evaluative process.

Evaluation of performance of footwear and flooring systems in combination with personnel using voltage probability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallwood, Jeremy; Swenson, David E.

2011-06-01

Evaluation of electrostatic performance of footwear and flooring in combination is necessary in applications such as electrostatic discharge (ESD) control in electronics manufacture, evaluation of equipment for avoidance of factory process electrostatic ignition risks and avoidance of electrostatic shocks to personnel in working environments. Typical standards use a walking test in which the voltage produced on a subject is evaluated by identification and measurement of the magnitude of the 5 highest "peaks" and "valleys" of the recorded voltage waveform. This method does not lend itself to effective analysis of the risk that the voltage will exceed a hazard threshold. This paper shows the advantages of voltage probability analysis and recommends that the method is adopted for use in future standards.

[Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

PubMed

Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

2014-01-01

The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.

[Establish research model of post-marketing clinical safety evaluation for Chinese patent medicine].

PubMed

Zheng, Wen-ke; Liu, Zhi; Lei, Xiang; Tian, Ran; Zheng, Rui; Li, Nan; Ren, Jing-tian; Du, Xiao-xi; Shang, Hong-cai

2015-09-01

The safety of Chinese patent medicine has become a focus of social. It is necessary to carry out work on post-marketing clinical safety evaluation for Chinese patent medicine. However, there have no criterions to guide the related research, it is urgent to set up a model and method to guide the practice for related research. According to a series of clinical research, we put forward some views, which contained clear and definite the objective and content of clinical safety evaluation, the work flow should be determined, make a list of items for safety evaluation project, and put forward the three level classification of risk control. We set up a model of post-marketing clinical safety evaluation for Chinese patent medicine. Based this model, the list of items can be used for ranking medicine risks, and then take steps for different risks, aims to lower the app:ds:risksrisk level. At last, the medicine can be managed by five steps in sequence. The five steps are, collect risk signal, risk recognition, risk assessment, risk management, and aftereffect assessment. We hope to provide new ideas for the future research.

A quantitative risk-assessment system (QR-AS) evaluating operation safety of Organic Rankine Cycle using flammable mixture working fluid.

PubMed

Tian, Hua; Wang, Xueying; Shu, Gequn; Wu, Mingqiang; Yan, Nanhua; Ma, Xiaonan

2017-09-15

Mixture of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide shows excellent cycle performance in Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) used for engine waste heat recovery, but the unavoidable leakage in practical application is a threat for safety due to its flammability. In this work, a quantitative risk assessment system (QR-AS) is established aiming at providing a general method of risk assessment for flammable working fluid leakage. The QR-AS covers three main aspects: analysis of concentration distribution based on CFD simulations, explosive risk assessment based on the TNT equivalent method and risk mitigation based on evaluation results. A typical case of propane/carbon dioxide mixture leaking from ORC is investigated to illustrate the application of QR-AS. According to the assessment results, proper ventilation speed, safe mixture ratio and location of gas-detecting devices have been proposed to guarantee the security in case of leakage. The results revealed that this presented QR-AS was reliable for the practical application and the evaluation results could provide valuable guidance for the design of mitigation measures to improve the safe performance of ORC system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heavy metals in soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area in China.

PubMed

Gu, Weihua; Bai, Jianfeng; Yao, Haiyan; Zhao, Jing; Zhuang, Xuning; Huang, Qing; Zhang, Chenglong; Wang, JingWei

2017-11-01

For the objective of evaluating the contamination degree of heavy metals and analysing its variation trend in soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area in Shanghai, China, evaluation methods, which include single factor index method, geo-accumulation index method, comprehensive pollution index method, and potential ecological risk index method, were adopted in this study. The results revealed that the soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area was polluted by arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and chromium. It also demonstrated that the concentrations of heavy metals were increased over time. Exceptionally, the average value of the metalloid (arsenic) was 73.31 mg kg -1 in 2014, while it was 58.31 mg kg -1 in the first half of 2015, and it was 2.93 times and 2.33 times higher than that of the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soil in 2014 and the first half of 2015, respectively. The sequences of the contamination degree of heavy metals in 2014 and the first half of 2015 were cadmium > lead > copper > chromium > zinc and cadmium > lead > chromium > zinc > copper. From the analysis of the potential ecological risk index method, arsenic and cadmium had higher ecological risk than other heavy metals. The integrated ecological risk index of heavy metals (cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and chromium) and metalloid (arsenic) was 394.10 in 2014, while it was 656.16 in the first half of 2015, thus documenting a strong ecological risk.

Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

2013-01-01

Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.

Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, ormore » adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se.« less

Saturated Salt Solution Method: A Useful Cadaver Embalming for Surgical Skills Training

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Shogo; Homma, Hiroshi; Naito, Munekazu; Oda, Jun; Nishiyama, Takahisa; Kawamoto, Atsuo; Kawata, Shinichi; Sato, Norio; Fukuhara, Tomomi; Taguchi, Hirokazu; Mashiko, Kazuki; Azuhata, Takeo; Ito, Masayuki; Kawai, Kentaro; Suzuki, Tomoya; Nishizawa, Yuji; Araki, Jun; Matsuno, Naoto; Shirai, Takayuki; Qu, Ning; Hatayama, Naoyuki; Hirai, Shuichi; Fukui, Hidekimi; Ohseto, Kiyoshige; Yukioka, Tetsuo; Itoh, Masahiro

2014-01-01

Abstract This article evaluates the suitability of cadavers embalmed by the saturated salt solution (SSS) method for surgical skills training (SST). SST courses using cadavers have been performed to advance a surgeon's techniques without any risk to patients. One important factor for improving SST is the suitability of specimens, which depends on the embalming method. In addition, the infectious risk and cost involved in using cadavers are problems that need to be solved. Six cadavers were embalmed by 3 methods: formalin solution, Thiel solution (TS), and SSS methods. Bacterial and fungal culture tests and measurement of ranges of motion were conducted for each cadaver. Fourteen surgeons evaluated the 3 embalming methods and 9 SST instructors (7 trauma surgeons and 2 orthopedists) operated the cadavers by 21 procedures. In addition, ultrasonography, central venous catheterization, and incision with cauterization followed by autosuture stapling were performed in some cadavers. The SSS method had a sufficient antibiotic effect and produced cadavers with flexible joints and a high tissue quality suitable for SST. The surgeons evaluated the cadavers embalmed by the SSS method to be highly equal to those embalmed by the TS method. Ultrasound images were clear in the cadavers embalmed by both the methods. Central venous catheterization could be performed in a cadaver embalmed by the SSS method and then be affirmed by x-ray. Lungs and intestines could be incised with cauterization and autosuture stapling in the cadavers embalmed by TS and SSS methods. Cadavers embalmed by the SSS method are sufficiently useful for SST. This method is simple, carries a low infectious risk, and is relatively of low cost, enabling a wider use of cadavers for SST. PMID:25501070

Saturated salt solution method: a useful cadaver embalming for surgical skills training.

PubMed

Hayashi, Shogo; Homma, Hiroshi; Naito, Munekazu; Oda, Jun; Nishiyama, Takahisa; Kawamoto, Atsuo; Kawata, Shinichi; Sato, Norio; Fukuhara, Tomomi; Taguchi, Hirokazu; Mashiko, Kazuki; Azuhata, Takeo; Ito, Masayuki; Kawai, Kentaro; Suzuki, Tomoya; Nishizawa, Yuji; Araki, Jun; Matsuno, Naoto; Shirai, Takayuki; Qu, Ning; Hatayama, Naoyuki; Hirai, Shuichi; Fukui, Hidekimi; Ohseto, Kiyoshige; Yukioka, Tetsuo; Itoh, Masahiro

2014-12-01

This article evaluates the suitability of cadavers embalmed by the saturated salt solution (SSS) method for surgical skills training (SST). SST courses using cadavers have been performed to advance a surgeon's techniques without any risk to patients. One important factor for improving SST is the suitability of specimens, which depends on the embalming method. In addition, the infectious risk and cost involved in using cadavers are problems that need to be solved. Six cadavers were embalmed by 3 methods: formalin solution, Thiel solution (TS), and SSS methods. Bacterial and fungal culture tests and measurement of ranges of motion were conducted for each cadaver. Fourteen surgeons evaluated the 3 embalming methods and 9 SST instructors (7 trauma surgeons and 2 orthopedists) operated the cadavers by 21 procedures. In addition, ultrasonography, central venous catheterization, and incision with cauterization followed by autosuture stapling were performed in some cadavers. The SSS method had a sufficient antibiotic effect and produced cadavers with flexible joints and a high tissue quality suitable for SST. The surgeons evaluated the cadavers embalmed by the SSS method to be highly equal to those embalmed by the TS method. Ultrasound images were clear in the cadavers embalmed by both the methods. Central venous catheterization could be performed in a cadaver embalmed by the SSS method and then be affirmed by x-ray. Lungs and intestines could be incised with cauterization and autosuture stapling in the cadavers embalmed by TS and SSS methods. Cadavers embalmed by the SSS method are sufficiently useful for SST. This method is simple, carries a low infectious risk, and is relatively of low cost, enabling a wider use of cadavers for SST.

[Evaluation of the risk related to repetitive work activities: testing of several methods proposed in the literature].

PubMed

Capodaglio, E M; Facioli, M; Bazzini, G

2001-01-01

Pathologies due to the repetitive activity of the upper limbs constitutes a growing part of the work-related musculo-skeletal disorders. At the moment, there are no universally accepted and validated methods for the description and assessment of the work-related risks. Yet, the criteria fundamentally characterizing the exposure are rather clear and even. This study reports a practical example of the application of some recent risk assessment methods proposed in the literature, combining objective and subjective measures obtained on the field, with the traditional activity analysis.

Orthopedic surgeons' knowledge regarding risk of radiation exposition: a survey analysis.

PubMed

Tunçer, Nejat; Kuyucu, Ersin; Sayar, Şafak; Polat, Gökhan; Erdil, İrem; Tuncay, İbrahim

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the knowledge levels of orthopedic surgeons working in Turkey about the uses and possible risks of fluoroscopy and assess methods for preventing radiation damage. A questionnaire with a total of 12 questions was sent to 1121 orthopedic surgeons working in Turkey. The questionnaire evaluated participants' knowledge about the uses and risks of fluoroscopy and methods for preventing damage. One thousand and twenty-four orthopedic surgeons were found to be suitable for inclusion in the study. The effects of fluoroscopy on patients were not assessed in our study. The data obtained were statistically evaluated. Of the surveyed surgeons, 313 (30%) had used fluoroscopy in over 50% of their operations. The average number of fluoroscopy shots per case was 54.5. A lead apron was the most commonly used (88%) protection from the harmful effects of radiation. Fluoroscopy shots were performed with the help of operating room personnel (86%). A dosimeter was used 5% of the time. According to the survey results, the need for fluoroscopy was very high in orthopedic surgery. However, orthopedic surgeons have inadequate knowledge about the uses and risks of fluoroscopy and methods for preventing damage. Therefore, we believe that training on this topic should be provided to all orthopedic surgeons. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2017.

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale frommore » nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.« less

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

2007-01-01

Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

A Survey of Report of Risk Management for Clay County, Florida.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee.

Risk management encompasses far more than an insurance program alone. The basic elements consist of--(1) elimination or reduction of exposure to loss, (2) protection from exposure to loss, (3) assumption of risk loss, and (4) transfer of risk to a professional carrier. This survey serves as a means of evaluating the methods of application of these…

EPA Peer Consultation Workshop on Cumulative Risk Assessment of Phthalates: Potential Options and Methods for Evaluating the Cumulative Hazard Associated with Six Selected Phthalates

EPA Science Inventory

EPA held a 2-day workshop on December 8 and 9, 2010 at the Doubletree Hotel Washington DC-Crystal City in Arlington, Viriginia. The goal of this workshop was to evaulate methods of determining cumulative risk associated with exposure to mulitple phthalates for inclusion in the EP...

Development and Evaluation of Ergonomic Interventions for Bucket Handling on Farms

PubMed Central

Fathallah, Fadi A.; Tang, Steven C.H.; Waters, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to introduce and evaluate two interventions, Ergo Bucket Carrier (EBC) and Easy Lift (EL), for youths (and adults) to handle water/feed buckets on farms. Background The physical activities of both adult and youth farm workers contribute to the development of low-back disorders (LBDs). Many of the activities youths perform on farms are associated with increased LBD risk, particularly, the handling of water and feed buckets. Methods Seventeen adult and youth participants (10 males and seven females) participated in this study. To assess the risk of LBDs, the participants were instrumented with a three-dimensional spinal electrogoniometer while lifting, carrying, and dumping water buckets using traditional method and the two interventions. Results For both the adult and youth groups, the results showed that the two interventions significantly decrease the magnitudes of LBD risk in many of the tasks evaluated. Overall, the use of the EBC resulted in a 41% reduction in the level of LBD risk for the carrying task, and a reduction of 69% for the dumping task. Using the EL, on the other hand, is especially effective for lifting tasks (55% reduction in LBD risk). Results of the subjective response were consistent with the objective evaluations. Conclusion This study demonstrated the potential for ergonomic interventions in reducing LBD risk during the common farming task of bucket handling. Application Potential application of this study includes the introduction of the EBC and EL in family farms to reduce the LBD risk among youth and adult farmers. PMID:26994024

Testing Mediators of Intervention Effects in Randomized Controlled Trials: An Evaluation of Three Depression Prevention Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stice, Eric; Rohde, Paul; Seeley, John R.; Gau, Jeff M.

2010-01-01

Objective: Evaluate a new 5-step method for testing mediators hypothesized to account for the effects of depression prevention programs. Method: In this indicated prevention trial, at-risk teens with elevated depressive symptoms were randomized to a group cognitive-behavioral (CB) intervention, group supportive expressive intervention, CB…

Process Evaluation of a Parenting Program for Low-Income Families in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lachman, Jamie M.; Kelly, Jane; Cluver, Lucie; Ward, Catherine L.; Hutchings, Judy; Gardner, Frances

2018-01-01

Objective: This mixed-methods process evaluation examined the feasibility of a parenting program delivered by community facilitators to reduce the risk of child maltreatment in low-income families with children aged 3-8 years in Cape Town, South Africa (N = 68). Method: Quantitative measures included attendance registers, fidelity checklists,…

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Reasons for Living-Older Adults Scale: A Suicide Risk Assessment Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edelstein, Barry A.; Heisel, Marnin J.; McKee, Deborah R.; Martin, Ronald R.; Koven, Lesley P.; Duberstein, Paul R.; Britton, Peter C.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purposes of these studies were to develop and initially evaluate the psychometric properties of the Reasons for Living Scale-Older Adult version (RFL-OA), an older adults version of a measure designed to assess reasons for living among individuals at risk for suicide. Design and Methods: Two studies are reported. Study 1 involved…

Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method The Investment Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises in The Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanyu; Chai, Huaqi; Huang, Yimiao

2018-01-01

“Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” held in Beijing in May this year. once again, “The Belt and Road” strategic initiative to the world, causing the world’s enthusiastic response. The core of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy initiative is to promote infrastructure construction and interconnection, dock national policies and development strategies, deepen pragmatic cooperation, promote coordinated and coordinated development and achieve common prosperity. With the “The Belt and Road” strategy in-depth, Chinese enterprises will go abroad, in the countries along the country to invest in more and more examples, accompanied by the increasing risk. Analysis of the failure of investment cases, we can easily find that this is the majority of enterprises overseas investment in the lack of careful assessment of risk and risk of foreign investment risk management has a great relationship. In this paper, the risk factors are used to identify the risk factors table, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the comprehensive risk value of many uncertain factors that cannot be determined by the overseas investment. The risk assessment system is constructed to help Chinese enterprises to follow the " Investment to avoid risks, improve the success rate.

Evaluation of critical nuclear power plant electrical cable response to severe thermal fire conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Gabriel James

The failure of electrical cables exposed to severe thermal fire conditions are a safety concern for operating commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has promoted the use of risk-informed and performance-based methods for fire protection which resulted in a need to develop realistic methods to quantify the risk of fire to NPP safety. Recent electrical cable testing has been conducted to provide empirical data on the failure modes and likelihood of fire-induced damage. This thesis evaluated numerous aspects of the data. Circuit characteristics affecting fire-induced electrical cable failure modes have been evaluated. In addition, thermal failure temperatures corresponding to cable functional failures have been evaluated to develop realistic single point thermal failure thresholds and probability distributions for specific cable insulation types. Finally, the data was used to evaluate the prediction capabilities of a one-dimension conductive heat transfer model used to predict cable failure.

Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Yu; Song, Guobao; Yang, Fenglin; Zhang, Shushen; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Zhenyu

2012-01-01

According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs. PMID:23208298

Lymphohaematopoietic system cancer incidence in an urban area near a coke oven plant: an ecological investigation

PubMed Central

Parodi, S; Vercelli, M; Stella, A; Stagnaro, E; Valerio, F

2003-01-01

Aims: To evaluate the incidence risk of lymphohaematopoietic cancers for the 1986–94 period in Cornigliano, a district of Genoa (Italy), where a coke oven is located a few hundred metres from the residential area. Methods: The whole of Genoa and one of its 25 districts (Rivarolo) were selected as controls. The trend of risk around the coke oven was evaluated via Stone's method, while the geographic pattern of such risks across the Cornigliano district was evaluated by computing full Bayes estimates of standardised incidence ratio (FBE-SIR). Results: In males, elevated relative risks (RR) were observed for all lymphohaematopoietic cancers (RR 1.7 v Rivarolo and 1.6 v Genoa), for NHL (RR 2.4 v Rivarolo and 1.7 v Genoa), and for leukaemia (RR 2.4 v Rivarolo and 1.9 v Genoa). In females, statistically non-significant RR were observed. In males no excess of risk was found close to the coke oven. In females, a rising risk for NHL was observed approaching the plant, although statistical significance was not reached, while the risk for leukaemia was not evaluable due to the small number of cases. Analysis of the geographic pattern of risk suggested the presence of a cluster of NHL in both sexes in the eastern part of the district, where a foundry had been operational until the early 1980s. A cluster of leukaemia cases was observed in males in a northern part of the area, where no major sources of benzene seemed to be present. Conclusions: The estimated risks seem to be slightly or not at all related to the distance from the coke oven. The statistically significant higher risks observed in males for NHL and leukaemia, and the clusters of leukaemia in males and of NHL in both sexes deserve further investigations in order to trace the exposures associated with such risks. PMID:12598665

A Prognostic Indicator for Patients Hospitalized with Heart Failure.

PubMed

Snow, Richard; Vogel, Karen; Vanderhoff, Bruce; Kelch, Benjamin P; Ferris, Frank D

2016-12-01

Current methods for identifying patients at risk of dying within six months suffer from clinician biases resulting in underestimation of this risk. As a result, patients who are potentially eligible for hospice and palliative care services frequently do not benefit from these services until they are very close to the end of their lives. To develop a prospective prognostic indicator based on actual survival within Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) claims data that identifies patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) who are at risk of six-month mortality. CMS claims data from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 were reviewed to find the first hospitalization for CHF patients with episode of care diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) 291, 292, and 293. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to determine the associations between demographic and clinical factors and six-month mortality. The resulting model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration. The resulting prospective prognostic model demonstrated fair discrimination with an ROC of 0.71 and good calibration with a Hosmer-Lemshow statistic of 0.98. Across all DRGs, 5% of discharged patients had a six-month mortality risk of greater than 50%. This prospective approach appears to provide a method to identify patients with CHF who would potentially benefit from a clinical evaluation for referral to hospice care or for a palliative care consult due to high predicted risk of dying within 180 days after discharge from a hospital. This approach can provide a model to match at-risk patients with evidenced-based care in a more consistent manner. This method of identifying patients at risk needs further prospective evaluation to see if it has value for clinicians, increases referrals to hospice and palliative care services, and benefits patients and families.

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lah, J; Manger, R; Kim, G

Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinarymore » team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.« less

Domestic Environmental Risk Factors Associated with Falling in Elderly

PubMed Central

LÖK, Neslihan; AKIN, Belgin

2013-01-01

Background: This is a cross-sectional study aiming at analyzing the relation between falling and domestic environmental –risk factors in community-dwelling elderly. Methods: The study consisted of 243 randomly chosen community-dwelling elderly over 65 years of age living around a health care center in Central Selcuklu, Konya. Data were collected with a questionnaire form including socio-demographic and other characteristics, with the Rivermead Mobility Index for evaluating mobility condition and an Evaluation Form of Domestic Environmental Risk Factors of Falling (EFDERF), which is developed by the researcher to assess domestic environmental risk factors of falling. Results: Based on (EFDERF) high number of problems lived in bathroom/restroom, kitchen, bedroom, sitting room/saloon and in all other areas was a risk factor in terms of domestic falling characteristics while the number of problems lived in hall and stairs was not a significant risk factor. Conclusion: EFDERF may be used by the nurses and health professionals to evaluate risk of falling and collecting data after visits in primary-care of elderly. PMID:23515204

Randomized Controlled Trial of a Preventive Intervention for Perinatal Depression in High-Risk Latinas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Le, Huynh-Nhu; Perry, Deborah F.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2011-01-01

Objective: A randomized controlled trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of a cognitive-behavioral (CBT) intervention to prevent perinatal depression in high-risk Latinas. Method: A sample of 217 participants, predominantly low-income Central American immigrants who met demographic and depression risk criteria, were randomized into usual…

Landslide risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

1983-01-01

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Risk maps for navigation in liver surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, C.; Zidowitz, S.; Schenk, A.; Oldhafer, K.-J.; Lang, H.; Peitgen, H.-O.

2010-02-01

The optimal transfer of preoperative planning data and risk evaluations to the operative site is challenging. A common practice is to use preoperative 3D planning models as a printout or as a presentation on a display. One important aspect is that these models were not developed to provide information in complex workspaces like the operating room. Our aim is to reduce the visual complexity of 3D planning models by mapping surgically relevant information onto a risk map. Therefore, we present methods for the identification and classification of critical anatomical structures in the proximity of a preoperatively planned resection surface. Shadow-like distance indicators are introduced to encode the distance from the resection surface to these critical structures on the risk map. In addition, contour lines are used to accentuate shape and spatial depth. The resulting visualization is clear and intuitive, allowing for a fast mental mapping of the current resection surface to the risk map. Preliminary evaluations by liver surgeons indicate that damage to risk structures may be prevented and patient safety may be enhanced using the proposed methods.

An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

2015-11-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

Evaluation of Angiographic and Technical Aspects of Carotid Stenting with Diffusion-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blasel, Stella, E-mail: Stella.Blasel@kgu.de; Hattingen, Elke; Berkefeld, Joachim

2009-07-15

The detection of clinically silent ischemic lesions on postprocedural diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images has become a preferred method for the description of embolic risks. The purpose of this single-center study was to evaluate whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) could determine material related or technical risk factors of filter-protected carotid stenting. Eighty-four patients with symptomatic severe ({>=}60%) carotid artery stenoses received filter-protected carotid stenting. Standard DWI (b = 1000) was performed within 48 h before and after carotid stenting. The occurrence and load of new postinterventional DWI lesions were assessed. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine risk factors associated with DWI lesions,more » with emphasis on technical factors such as use of different access devices (guiding catheter method vs. long carotid sheath method), type of stent (open-cell nitinol stent vs. closed-cell Wallstent), and protective device (filters with 80-{mu}m vs. 110-120-{mu}m pore size). Markers for generalized atherosclerosis and for degree and site of stenosis were assessed to allow comparison of adequate risk profiles. Access, protective device, and stent type were not significantly associated with new embolic DWI lesions when we compared patients with equivalent risk profiles (long carotid sheath method 48% [11 of 23] vs. guiding catheter method 44% [27 of 61], Wallstent 47% [15 of 32] vs. nitinol stent 44% [23 of 52], and small pore size filter 61% [11 of 18] vs. large pore size filter 41% [27 of 66]). Single-center DWI studies with a moderate number of cases are inadequate for proper assessment of the embolic risk of technical- or material-related risk factors in carotid stenting. Larger multicenter studies with more cases are needed.« less

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

PubMed Central

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

ASSESSING SUSCEPTIBILITY FROM EARLY-LIFE EXPOSURE TO CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer risks from childhood exposures to chemicals are generally analyzed using methods based upon exposure from adults, which assumes chemicals are equally potent for inducing risks at these different lifestages. Published literature was evaluated to determine whether there was...

The Method of Validity Evaluation of Hard Coal Excavation in Residual Seam Parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wodarski, Krzysztof; Bijańska, Jolanta; Gumiński, Adam

2017-12-01

The excavation of residual seam parts should be justified by positive assessment of the purposefulness, technical feasibility and economic effectiveness. The results of the profitability evaluation are crucial in a decision making process. The excavation of residual seam parts, even if it is possible from a technical point of view, should not be implemented if it is economically inefficient or when accompanied by a very high risk of non-recovery of invested capital resources. The article presents the evaluation method of possibilities of excavating hard coal from residual seam parts, and the example of its use in one of collieries in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Working in line with the developed method, allows to indicate the variant of residual seam part exploitation, which is feasible to implement from a technical point of view, and which is characterized by the highest economic effectiveness and lowest risk.

Review on pen-and-paper-based observational methods for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

PubMed

Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Abdol; Mohamad, Siti Shafika

2017-01-01

Computer works are associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). There are several methods have been developed to assess computer work risk factor related to MSDs. This review aims to give an overview of current techniques available for pen-and-paper-based observational methods in assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work. We searched an electronic database for materials from 1992 until 2015. The selected methods were focused on computer work, pen-and-paper observational methods, office risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders. This review was developed to assess the risk factors, reliability and validity of pen-and-paper observational method associated with computer work. Two evaluators independently carried out this review. Seven observational methods used to assess exposure to office risk factor for work-related musculoskeletal disorders were identified. The risk factors involved in current techniques of pen and paper based observational tools were postures, office components, force and repetition. From the seven methods, only five methods had been tested for reliability. They were proven to be reliable and were rated as moderate to good. For the validity testing, from seven methods only four methods were tested and the results are moderate. Many observational tools already exist, but no single tool appears to cover all of the risk factors including working posture, office component, force, repetition and office environment at office workstations and computer work. Although the most important factor in developing tool is proper validation of exposure assessment techniques, the existing observational method did not test reliability and validity. Futhermore, this review could provide the researchers with ways on how to improve the pen-and-paper-based observational method for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

Methods and strategies for future reactor safety goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Steven Andrew

There have been significant discussions over the past few years by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), and others as to the adequacy of the NRC safety goals for use with the next generation of nuclear power reactors to be built in the United States. The NRC, in its safety goals policy statement, has provided general qualitative safety goals and basic quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for nuclear reactors in the United States. Risk metrics such as core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) have been used as surrogates for the QHOs. In its review of the new plant licensing policy the ACRS has looked at the safety goals, as has the NRC. A number of issues have been raised including what the Commission had in mind when it drafted the safety goals and QHOs, how risk from multiple reactors at a site should be combined for evaluation, how the combination of a new and old reactor at the same site should be evaluated, what the criteria for evaluating new reactors should be, and whether new reactors should be required to be safer than current generation reactors. As part of the development and application of the NRC safety goal policy statement the Commissioners laid out the expectations for the safety of a nuclear power plant but did not address the risk associated with current multi-unit sites, potential modular reactor sites, and hybrid sites that could contain current generation reactors, new passive reactors, and/or modular reactors. The NRC safety goals and the QHOs refer to a "nuclear power plant," but do not discuss whether a "plant" refers to only a single unit or all of the units on a site. There has been much discussion on this issue recently due to the development of modular reactors. Additionally, the risk of multiple reactor accidents on the same site has been largely ignored in the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) done to date, and in most risk-informed analyses and discussions. This dissertation examines potential approaches to updating the safety goals that include the establishment of new quantitative safety goal associated with the comparative risk of generating electricity by viable competing technologies and modifications of the goals to account for multi-plant reactor sites, and issues associated with the use of safety goals in both initial licensing and operational decision making. This research develops a new quantitative health objective that uses a comparable benefit risk metric based on the life-cycle risk of the construction, operation and decommissioning of a comparable non-nuclear electric generation facility, as well as the risks associated with mining and transportation. This dissertation also evaluates the effects of using various methods for aggregating site risk as a safety metric, as opposed to using single plant safety goals. Additionally, a number of important assumptions inherent in the current safety goals, including the effect of other potential negative societal effects such as the generation of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide) have on the risk of electric power production and their effects on the setting of safety goals, is explored. Finally, the role risk perception should play in establishing safety goals has been explored. To complete this evaluation, a new method to analytically compare alternative technologies of generating electricity was developed, including development of a new way to evaluate risk perception, and a new method was developed for evaluating the risk at multiple units on a single site. To test these modifications to the safety goals a number of possible reactor designs and configurations were evaluated using these new proposed safety goals to determine the goals' usefulness and utility. The results of the analysis showed that the modifications provide measures that more closely evaluate the potential risk to the public from the operation of nuclear power plants than the current safety goals, while still providing a straight-forward process for assessment of reactor design and operation.

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

The Role of Psychological and Physiological Factors in Decision Making under Risk and in a Dilemma

PubMed Central

Fooken, Jonas; Schaffner, Markus

2016-01-01

Different methods to elicit risk attitudes of individuals often provide differing results despite a common theory. Reasons for such inconsistencies may be the different influence of underlying factors in risk-taking decisions. In order to evaluate this conjecture, a better understanding of underlying factors across methods and decision contexts is desirable. In this paper we study the difference in result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, and personality traits, which have been shown to be related. We also investigate the role of these factors during decision-making in a dilemma situation. For these two decision contexts we also investigate the decision-maker's physiological state during the decision, measured by heart rate variability (HRV), which we use as an indicator of emotional involvement. We found that the two elicitation methods provide different individual risk attitude measures which is partly reflected in a different gender effect between the methods. Personality traits explain only relatively little in terms of driving risk attitudes and the difference between methods. We also found that risk taking and the physiological state are related for one of the methods, suggesting that more emotionally involved individuals are more risk averse in the experiment. Finally, we found evidence that personality traits are connected to whether individuals made a decision in the dilemma situation, but risk attitudes and the physiological state were not indicative for the ability to decide in this decision context. PMID:26834591

Human health risk analysis from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking and bathing water of some Indian cities

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Human health risk assessment from exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) during drinking and bathing water vary from country to country as per life expectancy, body mass index, water consumption pattern and individual concentration of DBPs component, etc. Methods Present study considered average direct water intake per person for adult males and females as 4 & 3 L/day, respectively as per Indian literature for risk evaluation from another component of pollutant. While other important factor like average life expectancy, body weight & body surface area for male and female were considered 64 & 67 years, 51.9 & 45.4 Kg and 1.54 & 1.38 m2 respectively as per Indian Council of Medical Research and WHO report. The corresponding lifetime cancer risk of the formed THMs to human beings was estimated by the USEPA and IRIS method as per Indian population. Results The total cancer risk reached 8.99 E-04 and 8.92 E-04 for males and females, respectively, the highest risk from THMs seems to be from the inhalation route followed by ingestion and dermal contacts. Conclusions The multipath way evaluations of lifetime cancer risks for THMs exposure through ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation exposure were examined at the highest degree of danger. Results reveals that water containing THMs of the selected water treatment plant of the eastern part of India was unsafe in terms of risk evaluation through inhalation and ingestion, while dermal route of risk was found very close to permissible limit of USEPA. Sensitivity analysis shows that every input parameter is sole responsible for total risk potential, whereas exposure duration playing important role for estimation of total risk. PMID:24872885

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low Bone Mineral Density Risk Factors and Testing Patterns in Institutionalized Adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hess, Mailee; Campagna, Elizabeth J.; Jensen, Kristin M.

2018-01-01

Background: Adults with intellectual or developmental disability (ID/DD) have multiple risks for low bone mineral density (BMD) without formal guidelines to guide testing. We sought to identify risk factors and patterns of BMD testing among institutionalized adults with ID/DD. Methods: We evaluated risk factors for low BMD (Z-/T-score < -1) and…

Semi-automated landform classification for hazard mapping of soil liquefaction by earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, Takayuki

2018-05-01

Soil liquefaction damages were caused by huge earthquake in Japan, and the similar damages are concerned in near future huge earthquake. On the other hand, a preparation of soil liquefaction risk map (soil liquefaction hazard map) is impeded by the difficulty of evaluation of soil liquefaction risk. Generally, relative soil liquefaction risk should be able to be evaluated from landform classification data by using experimental rule based on the relationship between extent of soil liquefaction damage and landform classification items associated with past earthquake. Therefore, I rearranged the relationship between landform classification items and soil liquefaction risk intelligibly in order to enable the evaluation of soil liquefaction risk based on landform classification data appropriately and efficiently. And I developed a new method of generating landform classification data of 50-m grid size from existing landform classification data of 250-m grid size by using digital elevation model (DEM) data and multi-band satellite image data in order to evaluate soil liquefaction risk in detail spatially. It is expected that the products of this study contribute to efficient producing of soil liquefaction hazard map by local government.

Mitigating the risk of food handling in the home-delivered meal program.

PubMed

Namkung, Young; Ismail, Joseph A; Almanza, Barbara A; Nelson, Douglas C

2007-02-01

The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the length of time between packing and delivery of home-delivered meals, and the extent of foodborne illness risk to the elderly. Procedures to mitigate that risk were also evaluated. Researchers surveyed 95 drivers from home-delivered meal preparation sites in six states across the United States to determine the average length of time that passed during packing, loading, leaving, and delivery. The efficiency of various risk mitigation methods were evaluated and used to adjust the actual delivery time. Total average delivery time from packing to last delivery was 1.92 hours. This study suggests that the risk associated with the actual 1.92 hours of total delivery time could be mitigated to represent approximately 1.55 hours of effective time with proper packing and holding conditions. This methodology proposes a single measure for evaluating the effectiveness of various handling procedures associated with distributing home-delivered meals, which can be utilized to evaluate overall risk when combined with in-house preparation and client-handling behaviors.

A prospective study evaluating duration of swine breeding herd PRRS virus-free status and its relationship with measured risk.

PubMed

Holtkamp, Derald J; Yeske, Paul E; Polson, Dale D; Melody, Jamie L; Philips, Reid C

2010-09-01

A variety of methods for eliminating the PRRS virus from pig production sites have been successfully applied. However, success in maintaining a PRRS virus-free status for extended periods of time following elimination has been inconsistent and unpredictable. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether risks measured using version 1 of the American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV) PRRS Risk Assessment for the Breeding Herd, season of year and method by which swine breeding herd sites were established PRRS virus-free were associated with how long they retained their virus-free status. Thirty-three swine farrow-to-wean breeding herd sites that were established as PRRS virus-free by either populating a new site with virus-free breeding animals or by completely depopulating the site and repopulating with PRRS virus-free breeding animals were enrolled in this study. Survival analysis, using the Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, was performed where the outcome was the duration of time PRRS virus-free breeding herd sites remained virus-free ("survived"). Covariates evaluated included the internal and external risk scores measured by the PRRS Risk Assessment for the Breeding Herd as well as the season and the method by which the site was established free of the PRRS virus. All but 5 (15%) of the 33 sites became positive to the PRRS virus during the course of the study and approximately 40% became positive within 1 year from when they were established free of the PRRS virus. A higher external risk score was associated with a greater risk of becoming positive to the PRRS virus and shorter survival times. The internal risk score was not significantly associated with survival. Establishing breeding herd sites free of the PRRS virus in winter months (November through February) was associated with a greater risk of becoming positive to the PRRS virus and shorter survival times compared to those established in non-winter months. The association between the risk of becoming positive to the PRRS virus and the external risk score was confounded by the method the site was established PRRS virus-free. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

Revision of Viable Environmental Monitoring in a Development Pilot Plant Based on Quality Risk Assessment: A Case Study.

PubMed

Ziegler, Ildikó; Borbély-Jakab, Judit; Sugó, Lilla; Kovács, Réka J

2017-01-01

In this case study, the principles of quality risk management were applied to review sampling points and monitoring frequencies in the hormonal tableting unit of a formulation development pilot plant. In the cleanroom area, premises of different functions are located. Therefore a general method was established for risk evaluation based on the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) method to evaluate these premises (i.e., production area itself and ancillary clean areas) from the point of view of microbial load and state in order to observe whether the existing monitoring program met the emerged advanced monitoring practice. LAY ABSTRACT: In pharmaceutical production, cleanrooms are needed for the manufacturing of final dosage forms of drugs-intended for human or veterinary use-in order to protect the patient's weakened body from further infections. Cleanrooms are premises with a controlled level of contamination that is specified by the number of particles per cubic meter at a specified particle size or number of microorganisms (i.e. microbial count) per surface area. To ensure a low microbial count over time, microorganisms are detected and counted by environmental monitoring methods regularly. It is reasonable to find the easily infected places by risk analysis to make sure the obtained results really represent the state of the whole room. This paper presents a risk analysis method for the optimization of environmental monitoring and verification of the suitability of the method. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

PubMed

Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

2017-07-01

A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

Evaluation of "Harsh Reality": A Sexual Health Print-Based Resource for Street-Involved Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jalloh, Chelsea; McMillan, Barbara; Ormond, Margaret; Casey, Catherine; Wylie, John L.

2013-01-01

Introduction: Street-involved youth are one of the populations most at risk for elevated rates of sexually transmitted and bloodborne infections. This paper evaluates the suitability and success of a resource focused on health education with a population of street-involved youth in Winnipeg, Canada. Method: Using a mixed method approach,…

75 FR 61148 - Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997: Modifications to the List of Recognized...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-04

... Evaluation and testing within a risk management process 2-100 ASTM E1372-95 (2003) Standard Test Method...) Standard Title, Type of Test Method for Agar Diffusion Cell standard , Relevant Culture Screening for... Biological evaluation of medical devices - Office(s) and Part 3: Tests for genotoxicity, Division(s...

Evaluation of a Faith-Based Culturally Relevant Program for African American Substance Users at Risk for HIV in the Southern United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacMaster, Samuel A.; Jones, Jenny L.; Rasch, Randolph F. R.; Crawford, Sharon L.; Thompson, Stephanie; Sanders, Edwin C., II

2007-01-01

Objective: This article provides an evaluation of a federally funded faith-based program that serves African Americans who use heroin and cocaine and are at risk for HIV/AIDS in Nashville, Tennessee. Methods: Data were collected from 163 individuals at baseline and 6- and 12-month follow-up interviews. A subset of participants (n = 51) completed…

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards

PubMed Central

Rooney, Andrew A.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Jahnke, Gloria D.; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Boyles, Abee L.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Schünemann, Holger J.; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Lunn, Ruth M.

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or “risk of bias” — the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program’s (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or “domains” for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. PMID:26857180

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards.

PubMed

Rooney, Andrew A; Cooper, Glinda S; Jahnke, Gloria D; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L; Boyles, Abee L; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M; Kraft, Andrew D; Schünemann, Holger J; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D; Thayer, Kristina A; Lunn, Ruth M

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or "risk of bias" - the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program's (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or "domains" for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Study on Project Priority Evaluation Method on Road Slope Disaster Prevention Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiguchi, Nobuyasu; Ohtsu, Hiroyasu; Izu, Ryuutarou

To improve the safety and security of driving while coping with today's stagnant economy and frequent natural disasters, road slopes should be appropriately managed. To achieve the goals, road managers should establish project priority evaluation methods for each stage of road slope management by clarifying social losses that would result by drops in service levels. It is important that road managers evaluate a project priority properly to manage the road slope effectively. From this viewpoint, this study proposed "project priority evaluation methods" in road slope disaster prevention, which use available slope information at each stage of road slope management under limited funds. In addition, this study investigated the effect of managing it from the high slope of the priority by evaluating a risk of slope failure. In terms of the amount of available information, staged information provision is needed ranging from macroscopic studies, which involves evaluation of the entire route at each stage of decision making, to semi- and microscopic investigations for evaluating slopes, and microscopic investigations for evaluating individual slopes. With limited funds, additional detailed surveys are difficult to perform. It is effective to use the slope risk assessment system, which was constructed to complement detailed data, to extract sites to perform precise investigations.

Monitoring product safety in the postmarketing environment.

PubMed

Sharrar, Robert G; Dieck, Gretchen S

2013-10-01

The safety profile of a medicinal product may change in the postmarketing environment. Safety issues not identified in clinical development may be seen and need to be evaluated. Methods of evaluating spontaneous adverse experience reports and identifying new safety risks include a review of individual reports, a review of a frequency distribution of a list of the adverse experiences, the development and analysis of a case series, and various ways of examining the database for signals of disproportionality, which may suggest a possible association. Regulatory agencies monitor product safety through a variety of mechanisms including signal detection of the adverse experience safety reports in databases and by requiring and monitoring risk management plans, periodic safety update reports and postauthorization safety studies. The United States Food and Drug Administration is working with public, academic and private entities to develop methods for using large electronic databases to actively monitor product safety. Important identified risks will have to be evaluated through observational studies and registries.

Cardiac Assessment Risk Evaluation (Care Study) of African American College Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Sandra C.; Geiselman, Paula J.; Copeland, Amy L.; Gordon, Carol; Dudley, Mary; Manogin, Toni; Backstedt, Carol; Pourciau, Cathi; Ghebretatios, Ghenet

2005-01-01

Objective: To identify physiological and psychosocial variables of young African American women that may serve as a risk factor for heart disease and to assess their health promotion programme preferences. Method: A descriptive design was used to assess the cardiovascular risk factors of 100 African American women ages 18 to 40 years, enrolled in…

Risk of Substance Use Disorders in Adolescents with Bipolar Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilens, Timothy E.; Biederman, Joseph; Kwon, Anne; Ditterline, Jeffrey; Forkner, Peter; Moore, Hadley; Swezey, Allison; Snyder, Lindsey; Henin, Aude; Wozniak, Janet; Faraone, Stephen V.

2004-01-01

Objective: Previous work in adults and youths has suggested that juvenile onset bipolar disorder (BPD) is associated with an elevated risk of substance use disorders (SUD). Considering the public health importance of this issue, the authors now report on a controlled study of adolescents with and without BPD to evaluate the risk of SUD. Method:…

Examining Residence Status as a Risk Factor for Health Risk Behaviors among College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiBello, Angelo M.; Benz, Madeline B.; Miller, Mary Beth; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Carey, Kate B.

2018-01-01

Objective: The current study is aimed to evaluate college student residence as a unique risk factor for a range of negative health behaviors. Participants: We examined data from 63,555 students (66% females) from 157 campuses who completed the National College Health Assessment Survey in Spring 2011. Methods: Participants answered questions about…

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

PubMed

Le Vu, Stéphane; Ratmann, Oliver; Delpech, Valerie; Brown, Alison E; Gill, O Noel; Tostevin, Anna; Fraser, Christophe; Volz, Erik M

2018-06-01

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel surgical performance evaluation approximates Standardized Incidence Ratio with high accuracy at simple means.

PubMed

Gabbay, Itay E; Gabbay, Uri

2013-01-01

Excess adverse events may be attributable to poor surgical performance but also to case-mix, which is controlled through the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR). SIR calculations can be complicated, resource consuming, and unfeasible in some settings. This article suggests a novel method for SIR approximation. In order to evaluate a potential SIR surrogate measure we predefined acceptance criteria. We developed a new measure - Approximate Risk Index (ARI). "Number Needed for Event" (NNE) is the theoretical number of patients needed "to produce" one adverse event. ARI is defined as the quotient of the group of patients needed for no observed events Ge by total patients treated Ga. Our evaluation compared 2500 surgical units and over 3 million heterogeneous risk surgical patients that were induced through a computerized simulation. Surgical unit's data were computed for SIR and ARI to evaluate compliance with the predefined criteria. Approximation was evaluated by correlation analysis and performance prediction capability by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. ARI strongly correlates with SIR (r(2) = 0.87, p < 0.05). ARI prediction of excessive risk revealed excellent ROC (Area Under the Curve > 0.9) 87% sensitivity and 91% specificity. ARI provides good approximation of SIR and excellent prediction capability. ARI is simple and cost-effective as it requires thorough risk evaluation of only the adverse events patients. ARI can provide a crucial screening and performance evaluation quality control tool. The ARI method may suit other clinical and epidemiological settings where relatively small fraction of the entire population is affected. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GIS applied to location of fires detection towers in domain area of tropical forest.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; Rosa Dos Santos, Alexandre; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; Juvanhol, Ronie Silva; Schettino, Vitor Roberto; Marcatti, Gustavo Eduardo; Domingues, Getúlio Fonseca; Alves Dos Santos, Gleissy Mary Amaral Dino; Pezzopane, José Eduardo Macedo; Pedra, Beatriz Duguy; Banhos, Aureo; Martins, Lima Deleon

2016-08-15

In most countries, the loss of biodiversity caused by the fires is worrying. In this sense, the fires detection towers are crucial for rapid identification of fire outbreaks and can also be used in environmental inspection, biodiversity monitoring, telecommunications mechanisms, telemetry and others. Currently the methodologies for allocating fire detection towers over large areas are numerous, complex and non-standardized by government supervisory agencies. Therefore, this study proposes and evaluates different methodologies to best location of points to install fire detection towers considering the topography, risk areas, conservation units and heat spots. Were used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and unaligned stratified systematic sampling for implementing and evaluating 9 methods for allocating fire detection towers. Among the methods evaluated, the C3 method was chosen, represented by 140 fire detection towers, with coverage of: a) 67% of the study area, b) 73.97% of the areas with high risk, c) 70.41% of the areas with very high risk, d) 70.42% of the conservation units and e) 84.95% of the heat spots in 2014. The proposed methodology can be adapted to areas of other countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of agricultural nonpoint source pollution potential risk over China with a Transformed-Agricultural Nonpoint Pollution Potential Index method.

PubMed

Yang, Fei; Xu, Zhencheng; Zhu, Yunqiang; He, Chansheng; Wu, Genyi; Qiu, Jin Rong; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Qingsong

2013-01-01

Agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution has been the most important threat to water environment quality. Understanding the spatial distribution of NPS pollution potential risk is important for taking effective measures to control and reduce NPS pollution. A Transformed-Agricultural Nonpoint Pollution Potential Index (T-APPI) model was constructed for evaluating the national NPS pollution potential risk in this study; it was also combined with remote sensing and geographic information system techniques for evaluation on the large scale and at 1 km2 spatial resolution. This model considers many factors contributing to the NPS pollution as the original APPI model, summarized as four indicators of the runoff, sediment production, chemical use and the people and animal load. These four indicators were analysed in detail at 1 km2 spatial resolution throughout China. The T-APPI model distinguished the four indicators into pollution source factors and transport process factors; it also took their relationship into consideration. The studied results showed that T-APPI is a credible and convenient method for NPS pollution potential risk evaluation. The results also indicated that the highest NPS pollution potential risk is distributed in the middle-southern Jiangsu province. Several other regions, including the North China Plain, Chengdu Basin Plain, Jianghan Plain, cultivated lands in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, also showed serious NPS pollution potential. This study can provide a scientific reference for predicting the future NPS pollution risk throughout China and may be helpful for taking reasonable and effective measures for preventing and controlling NPS pollution.

Bias correction of risk estimates in vaccine safety studies with rare adverse events using a self-controlled case series design.

PubMed

Zeng, Chan; Newcomer, Sophia R; Glanz, Jason M; Shoup, Jo Ann; Daley, Matthew F; Hambidge, Simon J; Xu, Stanley

2013-12-15

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method is often used to examine the temporal association between vaccination and adverse events using only data from patients who experienced such events. Conditional Poisson regression models are used to estimate incidence rate ratios, and these models perform well with large or medium-sized case samples. However, in some vaccine safety studies, the adverse events studied are rare and the maximum likelihood estimates may be biased. Several bias correction methods have been examined in case-control studies using conditional logistic regression, but none of these methods have been evaluated in studies using the SCCS design. In this study, we used simulations to evaluate 2 bias correction approaches-the Firth penalized maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's bias reduction after maximum likelihood estimation-with small sample sizes in studies using the SCCS design. The simulations showed that the bias under the SCCS design with a small number of cases can be large and is also sensitive to a short risk period. The Firth correction method provides finite and less biased estimates than the maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's method. However, limitations still exist when the risk period in the SCCS design is short relative to the entire observation period.

A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yingtao; Zhang, Ying

2009-07-01

Online credit evaluation is the foundation for the establishment of trust and for the management of risk between buyers and sellers in e-commerce. In this paper, a new credit evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the set pair analysis (SPA) is presented to determine the credibility of the electronic commerce participants. It solves some of the drawbacks found in classical credit evaluation methods and broadens the scope of current approaches. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered in the proposed method, then a overall credit score is achieved from the optimal perspective. In the end, a case analysis of China Garment Network is provided for illustrative purposes.

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohnloser, S. H.; Klingenheben, T.; Li, Y. G.; Zabel, M.; Peetermans, J.; Cohen, R. J.

1998-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rath, F.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-03: Risk in the Context of Medical Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samei, E.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraass, B.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Application of correspondence analysis in the assessment of mine tailings dam breakage risk in the Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Salgueiro, Ana Rita; Pereira, Henrique Garcia; Rico, Maria-Teresa; Benito, Gerado; Díez-Herreo, Andrés

2008-02-01

A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations.

Study on Failure of Third-Party Damage for Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhang, Hong; Han, Yinshan; Wang, Baodong

2016-01-01

Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention.

Methods for Evaluating the Performance and Human Stress-Factors of Percussive Riveting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Jonathan Y.

The aerospace industry automates portions of their manufacturing and assembly processes. However, mechanics still remain vital to production, especially in areas where automated machines cannot fit, or have yet to match the quality of human craftsmanship. One such task is percussive riveting. Because percussive riveting is associated with a high risk of injury, these tool must be certified prior to release. The major contribution of this thesis is to develop a test bench capable of percussive riveting for ergonomic evaluation purposes. The major issues investigated are: (i) automate the tool evaluation method to be repeatable; (ii) demonstrate use of displacement and force sensors; and (iii) correlate performance and risk exposure of percussive tools. A test bench equipped with servomotors and pneumatic cylinders to control xyz-position of a rivet gun and bucking bar simultaneously, is used to explore this evaluation approach.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

Analysis of Braking Behavior of Train Drivers to Detect Unusual Driving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marumo, Yoshitaka; Tsunashima, Hitoshi; Kojima, Takashi; Hasegawa, Yasushi

The safety devices for train systems are activated in emergency situations when a risk becomes obvious, and the emergency brake is applied. If such systems are faulty, the drivers' operating errors may cause immediate accidents. So it is necessary to evaluate potential risks by detecting improper driving behavior before overt risks appear. This study analyzes the driving behavior of train drivers using a train-driving simulator. We focus on braking behavior when approaching a station. Two methods for detecting unusual braking operation are examined by giving drivers mental calculation problems as a mental workload. The first is a method monitoring the driver's brake handle operation, and the second is a method measuring vehicle deceleration. These methods make it possible to detect unusual driving.

Evaluation of paediatric cardiosurgical model in Croatia by using the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment for congenital cardiac surgery-1 method.

PubMed

Dilber, Daniel; Malcic, Ivan

2010-08-01

The Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were developed and used to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. Both methods were used to compare results of procedures performed on our patients in Croatian cardiosurgical centres and results of procedures were taken abroad. The study population consisted of all patients with congenital cardiac disease born to Croatian residents between 1 October, 2002 and 1 October, 2007 undergoing a cardiovascular operation during this period. Of the 556 operations, the Aristotle basic complexity score could be assigned to 553 operations and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method to 536 operations. Procedures were performed in two institutions in Croatia and seven institutions abroad. The average complexity for cardiac procedures performed in Croatia was significantly lower. With both systems, along with the increase in complexity, there is also an increase in mortality before discharge and postoperative length of stay. Only after the adjustment for complexity there are marked differences in mortality and occurrence of postoperative complications. Both, the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were predictive of in-hospital mortality as well as prolonged postoperative length to stay, and can be used as a tool in our country to evaluate a cardiosurgical model and recognise potential problems.

Deep Learning for Classification of Colorectal Polyps on Whole-slide Images

PubMed Central

Korbar, Bruno; Olofson, Andrea M.; Miraflor, Allen P.; Nicka, Catherine M.; Suriawinata, Matthew A.; Torresani, Lorenzo; Suriawinata, Arief A.; Hassanpour, Saeed

2017-01-01

Context: Histopathological characterization of colorectal polyps is critical for determining the risk of colorectal cancer and future rates of surveillance for patients. However, this characterization is a challenging task and suffers from significant inter- and intra-observer variability. Aims: We built an automatic image analysis method that can accurately classify different types of colorectal polyps on whole-slide images to help pathologists with this characterization and diagnosis. Setting and Design: Our method is based on deep-learning techniques, which rely on numerous levels of abstraction for data representation and have shown state-of-the-art results for various image analysis tasks. Subjects and Methods: Our method covers five common types of polyps (i.e., hyperplastic, sessile serrated, traditional serrated, tubular, and tubulovillous/villous) that are included in the US Multisociety Task Force guidelines for colorectal cancer risk assessment and surveillance. We developed multiple deep-learning approaches by leveraging a dataset of 2074 crop images, which were annotated by multiple domain expert pathologists as reference standards. Statistical Analysis: We evaluated our method on an independent test set of 239 whole-slide images and measured standard machine-learning evaluation metrics of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score and their 95% confidence intervals. Results: Our evaluation shows that our method with residual network architecture achieves the best performance for classification of colorectal polyps on whole-slide images (overall accuracy: 93.0%, 95% confidence interval: 89.0%–95.9%). Conclusions: Our method can reduce the cognitive burden on pathologists and improve their efficacy in histopathological characterization of colorectal polyps and in subsequent risk assessment and follow-up recommendations. PMID:28828201

Building a Better Model: A Comprehensive Breast Cancer Risk Model Incorporating Breast Density to Stratify Risk and Apply Resources

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

variability with well trained readers. Figure 7: comparison between the PD (percent density using Cumulus area) and the automatic PD. The...evaluation of outlier correction, comparison of several different software methods, precision measurement, and evaluation of variation by mammography...chart review for selected cases (month 4-6). Comparison of information from the Breast Cancer Database and medical records showed good consistency

Prenatal diagnosis of hemoglobinopathies: evaluation of techniques for analysing globin-chain synthesis in blood samples obtained by fetoscopy.

PubMed Central

Congote, L. F.; Hamilton, E. F.; Chow, J. C.; Perry, T. B.

1982-01-01

Three techniques for analysing hemoglobin synthesis in blood samples obtained by fetoscopy were evaluated. Of the fetuses studied, 12 were not at risk of genetic disorders, 10 were at risk of beta-thalassemia, 2 were at risk of sickle cell anemia and 1 was at risk of both diseases. The conventional method of prenatal diagnosis of hemoglobinopathies, involving the separation of globin chains labelled with a radioactive isotope on carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) columns, was compared with a method involving globin-chain separation by high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) and with direct analysis of labelled hemoglobin tetramers obtained from cell lysates by chromatography on ion-exchange columns. The last method is technically the simplest and can be used for diagnosing beta-thalassemia and sickle cell anemia. However, it gives spuriously high levels of adult hemoglobin in samples containing nonlabelled adult hemoglobin. HPLC is the fastest method for prenatal diagnosis of beta-thalassemia and may prove as reliable as the CMC method. Of the 13 fetuses at risk for hemoglobinopathies, 1 was predicted to be affected, and the diagnosis was confirmed in the abortus. Of 12 predicted to be unaffected, 1 was aborted spontaneously and was unavailable for confirmatory studies, as were 3 of the infants; however, the diagnosis was confirmed in seven cases and is awaiting confirmation when the infant in 6 months old in one case. Couples at risk of bearing a child with a hemoglobinopathy should be referred for genetic counselling before pregnancy or, at the latest, by the 12th week of gestation so that prenatal diagnosis can be attempted by amniocentesis, safer procedure, with restriction endonuclease analysis of the amniotic fluid cells. PMID:7139502

Electrophysiological evaluation of Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome

PubMed Central

Brembilla-Perrot, Beatrice

2002-01-01

Sudden death might complicate the follow-up of symptomatic patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) and might be the first event in patients with asymptomatic WPW. The risk of sudden death is increased in some clinical situations. Generally, the noninvasive studies are unable to predict the risk of sudden death correctly . The electrophysiological study is the best means to detect the risk of sudden death and to evaluate the nature of symptoms. Methods used to define the prognosis of WPW are well-defined. At first the maximal rate of conduction through the accessory pathway is evaluated; programmed atrial stimulation using 1 and 2 extrastimuli delivered at different cycle lengths is then used to determine the accessory pathway refractory period and to induce a supraventricular tachycardia. These methods should be performed in the control state and repeated in adrenergic situations either during exercise test or more simply during a perfusion of small doses of isoproterenol. The induction of an atrial fibrillation with rapid conduction through the accessory pathway (> 240/min in control state, > 300/min after isoproterenol) is the sign of a form of WPW at risk of sudden death. PMID:16951730

An evaluation of Computational Fluid dynamics model for flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Francesco, Silvia; Biscarini, Chiara; Montesarchio, Valeria

2014-05-01

This work presents an analysis of the hydrological-hydraulic engineering requisites for Risk evaluation and efficient flood damage reduction plans. Most of the research efforts have been dedicated to the scientific and technical aspects of risk assessment, providing estimates of possible alternatives and of the risk associated. In the decision making process for mitigation plan, the contribute of scientist is crucial, due to the fact that Risk-Damage analysis is based on evaluation of flow field ,of Hydraulic Risk and on economical and societal considerations. The present paper will focus on the first part of process, the mathematical modelling of flood events which is the base for all further considerations. The evaluation of potential catastrophic damage consequent to a flood event and in particular to dam failure requires modelling of the flood with sufficient detail so to capture the spatial and temporal evolutions of the event, as well of the velocity field. Thus, the selection of an appropriate mathematical model to correctly simulate flood routing is an essential step. In this work we present the application of two 3D Computational fluid dynamics models to a synthetic and real case study in order to evaluate the correct evolution of flow field and the associated flood Risk . The first model is based on a opensource CFD platform called openFoam. Water flow is schematized with a classical continuum approach based on Navier-Stokes equation coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) method to take in account the multiphase character of river bottom-water- air systems. The second model instead is based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, an innovative numerical fluid dynamics scheme based on Boltzmann's kinetic equation that represents the flow dynamics at the macroscopic level by incorporating a microscopic kinetic approach. Fluid is seen as composed by particles that can move and collide among them. Simulation results from both models are promising and congruent to experimental results available in literature, thought the LBM model requires less computational effort respect to the NS one.

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tortorelli, J.P.

1995-08-01

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactivemore » materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.« less

Rapid antibacterial activity of 2 novel hand soaps: evaluation of the risk of development of bacterial resistance to the antibacterial agents.

PubMed

Geraldo, Ingrid M; Gilman, Allan; Shintre, Milind S; Modak, Shanta M

2008-08-01

To evaluate the antimicrobial efficacy of and risk of organisms developing resistance to 2 novel hand soaps: (1) a soap containing triclosan, polyhexamethylene biguanide, and benzethonium chloride added to a soap base (TPB soap); and (2) a soap containing farnesol, polyhexamethylene biguanide, and benzethonium chloride added to a soap base (FPB soap). Tests also included soaps containing only triclosan. The risk of emergence of resistant bacterial mutants was investigated by determining the susceptibility changes after repeated exposure of bacteria to the drugs and soaps in vitro. The effectiveness of the soaps was evaluated using an in vitro tube dilution method, a volunteer method (the ASTM standard), and 2 pig skin methods. The minimum inhibitory concentration and minimum bactericidal concentration of triclosan against Staphylococcus aureus increased 8- to 62.5-fold, whereas those of TPB and FPB (both alone and in soap) were unchanged. In vitro, TPB and FPB soaps produced higher log(10) reductions in colony-forming units of all tested organisms (4.95-8.58) than did soaps containing triclosan alone (0.29-4.86). In the test using the pig skin and volunteer methods, TPB soap produced a higher log(10) reduction in colony-forming units (3.1-3.3) than did the soap containing triclosan alone (2.6-2.8). The results indicate that TPB and FPB soaps may provide superior rapid and broad-spectrum efficacy with a lower risk of organisms developing resistance than do soaps containing triclosan alone. Pig skin methods may be used to predict the efficacy of antibacterial soaps in the rapid disinfection of contaminated hands. Hand washing with TPB and FPB soaps by healthcare workers and the general population may reduce the transmission of pathogens, with a lower risk of promoting the emergence of resistant organisms.

Hey girlfriend: an evaluation of AIDS prevention among women in the sex industry.

PubMed

Dorfman, L E; Derish, P A; Cohen, J B

1992-01-01

Increasingly, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) prevention programs have been developed to reach and influence street-based populations. Standard methods of evaluation do not fit the conditions of such programs. This article describes a process and outcome evaluation of an AIDS prevention program for sex workers in which qualitative and quantitative methods were combined in order to mediate research problems endemic to street-based populations. Methods included epidemiological questionnaires, open-ended interviews with participants, and ethnographic field notes. Process evaluation findings show that field staff who were indigenous to the neighborhood and population readily gained access to the community of sex workers and simultaneously became role models for positive behavior change. Outcome findings show that sex workers do feel at risk for AIDS, but usually from clients rather than from husbands or boyfriends. Accordingly, they use condoms more frequently with clients than with steady partners. Increasing condom use among sex workers with their steady partners remains an important challenge for AIDS prevention. Combining qualitative and quantitative research data provided a more comprehensive assessment of how to reach sex workers with effective AIDS risk reduction messages than either method could have provided alone.

Prevention of accidental exposure in radiotherapy: the risk matrix approach.

PubMed

Vilaragut, J J; Duménigo, C; Delgado, J M; Morales, J; McDonnell, J D; Ferro, R; Ortiz López, P; Ramírez, M L; Pérez Mulas, A; Papadopulos, S; Gonçalves, M; López Morones, R; Sánchez Cayuela, C; Cascajo Castresana, A; Somoano, F; Álvarez, C; Guillén, A; Rodríguez, M; Pereira, P P; Nader, A

2013-02-01

Knowledge and lessons from past accidental exposures in radiotherapy are very helpful in finding safety provisions to prevent recurrence. Disseminating lessons is necessary but not sufficient. There may be additional latent risks for other accidental exposures, which have not been reported or have not occurred, but are possible and may occur in the future if not identified, analyzed, and prevented by safety provisions. Proactive methods are available for anticipating and quantifying risk from potential event sequences. In this work, proactive methods, successfully used in industry, have been adapted and used in radiotherapy. Risk matrix is a tool that can be used in individual hospitals to classify event sequences in levels of risk. As with any anticipative method, the risk matrix involves a systematic search for potential risks; that is, any situation that can cause an accidental exposure. The method contributes new insights: The application of the risk matrix approach has identified that another group of less catastrophic but still severe single-patient events may have a higher probability, resulting in higher risk. The use of the risk matrix approach for safety assessment in individual hospitals would provide an opportunity for self-evaluation and managing the safety measures that are most suitable to the hospital's own conditions.

The risk of musculoskeletal disorders for workers due to repetitive movements during tomato harvesting.

PubMed

Cecchini, M; Colantoni, A; Massantini, R; Monarca, D

2010-04-01

Tomatoes are the most common crop in Italy. The production cycle requires operations in the field and factory that can cause musculoskeletal disorders due to the repetitive movements of the upper limbs of the workers employed in the sorting phase. This research aims to evaluate these risks using the OCRA (occupational repetitive actions) index method This method is based firstly on the calculation of a maximum number of recommended actions, related to the way the operation is performed, and secondly on a comparison of the number of actions effectively carried out by the upper limb with the recommended calculated value. The results of the risk evaluation for workers who manually sort tomatoes during harvest showed a risk for the workers, with an exposure index greater than 20; the OCRA index defines an index higher than 3.5 as unacceptable. The present trend of replacing manual sorting onboard a vehicle with optical sorters seems to be appropriate to reduce the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) and is supported from both a financial point of view and as a quality control measure.

Research Risk for Persons With Psychiatric Disorders: A Decisional Framework to Meet the Ethical Challenge

PubMed Central

Yanos, Philip T.; Stanley, Barbara S.; Greene, Carolyn S.

2010-01-01

Objective There is a lack of consensus on how to evaluate the risk of research studies conducted with persons who have psychiatric disorders. The authors reviewed research on vulnerability, risk, and procedures to mitigate risk in studies with this population to help inform evaluation of such research. Methods Searches of MEDLINE (1966–2006), PsycINFO (1967–2006), and Google Scholar used combinations of the terms mental illness, vulnerable, psychiatric, schizophrenia, and depression combined with terms such as research risk, vulnerability, research harm, capacity, risk, and mitigation of risk. Articles were identified from reference lists, and additional searches used terms from identified articles. Results Evidence for two types of vulnerability—capacity based and power based—is presented, which supports the notion of vulnerability as a state, rather than a trait, among persons with psychiatric disorders. Three categories of risk are described—minimal risk, minor increment over minimal risk, and greater than minor increment. Evidence shows that many common types of studies pose risk in the first two categories when conducted with this population. The literature also describes procedures for reducing vulnerability and mitigating risk that should be considered in study evaluations. The authors offer a framework for evaluating the category of risk posed by a study. Conclusions Although more research is needed, there is sufficient evidence that many common types of research present minimal risk or only a minor increment over minimal risk for large segments of the population of persons with psychiatric disorders, as they do for persons in the general population. PMID:19252051

A Risk Radar driven by Internet of intelligences serving for emergency management in community.

PubMed

Huang, Chongfu; Wu, Tong; Renn, Ortwin

2016-07-01

Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided. PMID:19036144

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Increased pulmonary alveolar-capillary permeability in patients at risk for adult respiratory distress syndrome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tennenberg, S.D.; Jacobs, M.P.; Solomkin, J.S.

1987-04-01

Two methods for predicting adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were evaluated prospectively in a group of 81 multitrauma and sepsis patients considered at clinical high risk. A popular ARDS risk-scoring method, employing discriminant analysis equations (weighted risk criteria and oxygenation characteristics), yielded a predictive accuracy of 59% and a false-negative rate of 22%. Pulmonary alveolar-capillary permeability (PACP) was determined with a radioaerosol lung-scan technique in 23 of these 81 patients, representing a statistically similar subgroup. Lung scanning achieved a predictive accuracy of 71% (after excluding patients with unilateral pulmonary contusion) and gave no false-negatives. We propose a combination of clinicalmore » risk identification and functional determination of PACP to assess a patient's risk of developing ARDS.« less

Participatory video-assisted evaluation of truck drivers' work outside cab: deliveries in two types of transport.

PubMed

Reiman, Arto; Pekkala, Janne; Väyrynen, Seppo; Putkonen, Ari; Forsman, Mikael

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify risks and ergonomics discomfort during work of local and short haul delivery truck drivers outside a cab. The study used a video- and computer-based method (VIDAR). VIDAR is a participatory method identifying demanding work situations and their potential risks. The drivers' work was videoed and analysed by subjects and ergonomists. Delivery truck drivers should not be perceived as one group with equal risks because there were significant differences between the 2 types of transportation and specific types of risks. VIDAR produces visual material for risk management processes. VIDAR as a participatory approach stimulates active discussion about work-related risks and discomfort, and about possibilities for improvement. VIDAR may be also applied to work which comprises different working environments.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of a Couple Relationship and Coparenting Program (Couple CARE for Parents) for High- and Low-Risk New Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petch, Jemima F.; Halford, W. Kim; Creedy, Debra K.; Gamble, Jenny

2012-01-01

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of couple relationship education in assisting couples to sustain relationship functioning and parenting sensitivity, and whether benefits were moderated by risk of maladjustment in the transition to parenthood ("risk"). Method: Two hundred fifty couples expecting their first child were assessed on…

Methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants into recycling products - A case study from Austria.

PubMed

Knapp, Julika; Allesch, Astrid; Müller, Wolfgang; Bockreis, Anke

2017-11-01

Recycling of waste materials is desirable to reduce the consumption of limited primary resources, but also includes the risk of recycling unwanted, hazardous substances. In Austria, the legal framework demands secondary products must not present a higher risk than comparable products derived from primary resources. However, the act provides no definition on how to assess this risk potential. This paper describes the development of different quantitative and qualitative methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants in recycling processes. The quantitative methods comprise the comparison of concentrations of harmful substances in recycling products to corresponding primary products and to existing limit values. The developed evaluation matrix, which considers further aspects, allows for the assessment of the qualitative risk potential. The results show that, depending on the assessed waste fraction, particular contaminants can be critical. Their concentrations were higher than in comparable primary materials and did not comply with existing limit values. On the other hand, the results show that a long-term, well-established quality control system can assure compliance with the limit values. The results of the qualitative assessment obtained with the evaluation matrix support the results of the quantitative assessment. Therefore, the evaluation matrix can be suitable to quickly screen waste streams used for recycling to estimate their potential environmental and health risks. To prevent the transfer of contaminants into product cycles, improved data of relevant substances in secondary resources are necessary. In addition, regulations for material recycling are required to assure adequate quality control measures, including limit values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conducting an Efficient Proactive Risk Assessment Prior to CPOE Implementation in an Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Hundt, Ann Schoofs; Adams, Jean A.; Schmid, J. Andrew; Musser, Linda M.; Walker, James M.; Wetterneck, Tosha B; Douglas, Stephen V.; Paris, Bonnie L.; Carayon, Pascale

2012-01-01

Purpose To develop, conduct, and evaluate a proactive risk assessment (PRA) of the design and implementation of CPOE in an ICU. Methods We developed a PRA method based on issues identified from documented experience with conventional PRA methods and the constraints of an organization about to implement CPOE in an intensive care unit. The PRA method consists of three phases: planning (three months), team (one five-hour meeting), and evaluation (short- and long-term). Results Sixteen unique relevant vulnerabilities were identified as a result of the PRA team’s efforts. Negative consequences resulting from the vulnerabilities included potential patient safety and quality of care issues, non-compliance with regulatory requirements, increases in cognitive burden on CPOE users, and/or worker inconvenience or distress. Actions taken to address the vulnerabilities included redesign of the technology, process (workflow) redesign, user training, and/or ongoing monitoring. Verbal and written evaluation by the team members indicated that the PRA method was useful and that participants were willing to participate in future PRAs. Long-term evaluation was accomplished by monitoring an ongoing “issues list” of CPOE problems identified by or reported to IT staff. Vulnerabilities identified by the team were either resolved prior to CPOE implementation (n = 7) or shortly thereafter (n = 9). No other issues were identified beside those identified by the team. Conclusions Generally positive results from the various evaluations including a long-term evaluation demonstrate the value of developing an efficient PRA method that meets organizational and contextual requirements and constraints. PMID:22608242

Estimation and comparison of cumulative incidences of biliary self-expandable metallic stent dysfunction accounting for competing risks.

PubMed

Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Nakai, Yousuke; Isayama, Hiroyuki; Togawa, Osamu; Kogure, Hirofumi; Kawakubo, Kazumichi; Tsujino, Takeshi; Sasahira, Naoki; Hirano, Kenji; Yamamoto, Natsuyo; Ito, Yukiko; Sasaki, Takashi; Mizuno, Suguru; Toda, Nobuo; Tada, Minoru; Koike, Kazuhiko

2014-03-01

Self-expandable metallic stent (SEMS) placement is widely carried out for distal malignant biliary obstruction, and survival analysis is used to evaluate the cumulative incidences of SEMS dysfunction (e.g. the Kaplan-Meier [KM] method and the log-rank test). However, these statistical methods might be inappropriate in the presence of 'competing risks' (here, death without SEMS dysfunction), which affects the probability of experiencing the event of interest (SEMS dysfunction); that is, SEMS dysfunction can no longer be observed after death. A competing risk analysis has rarely been done in studies on SEMS. We introduced the concept of a competing risk analysis and illustrated its impact on the evaluation of SEMS outcomes using hypothetical and actual data. Our illustrative study included 476 consecutive patients who underwent SEMS placement for unresectable distal malignant biliary obstruction. A significant difference between cumulative incidences of SEMS dysfunction in male and female patients via theKM method (P = 0.044 by the log-rank test) disappeared after applying a competing risk analysis (P = 0.115 by Gray's test). In contrast, although cumulative incidences of SEMS dysfunction via the KM method were similar with and without chemotherapy (P = 0.647 by the log-rank test), cumulative incidence of SEMS dysfunction in the non-chemotherapy group was shown to be significantly lower (P = 0.031 by Gray's test) in a competing risk analysis. Death as a competing risk event needs to be appropriately considered in estimating a cumulative incidence of SEMS dysfunction, otherwise analytical results may be biased. © 2013 The Authors. Digestive Endoscopy © 2013 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

A Systematic Evaluation of Field-Based Screening Methods for the Assessment of Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) Injury Risk.

PubMed

Fox, Aaron S; Bonacci, Jason; McLean, Scott G; Spittle, Michael; Saunders, Natalie

2016-05-01

Laboratory-based measures provide an accurate method to identify risk factors for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury; however, these methods are generally prohibitive to the wider community. Screening methods that can be completed in a field or clinical setting may be more applicable for wider community use. Examination of field-based screening methods for ACL injury risk can aid in identifying the most applicable method(s) for use in these settings. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate and compare field-based screening methods for ACL injury risk to determine their efficacy of use in wider community settings. An electronic database search was conducted on the SPORTDiscus™, MEDLINE, AMED and CINAHL databases (January 1990-July 2015) using a combination of relevant keywords. A secondary search of the same databases, using relevant keywords from identified screening methods, was also undertaken. Studies identified as potentially relevant were independently examined by two reviewers for inclusion. Where consensus could not be reached, a third reviewer was consulted. Original research articles that examined screening methods for ACL injury risk that could be undertaken outside of a laboratory setting were included for review. Two reviewers independently assessed the quality of included studies. Included studies were categorized according to the screening method they examined. A description of each screening method, and data pertaining to the ability to prospectively identify ACL injuries, validity and reliability, recommendations for identifying 'at-risk' athletes, equipment and training required to complete screening, time taken to screen athletes, and applicability of the screening method across sports and athletes were extracted from relevant studies. Of 1077 citations from the initial search, a total of 25 articles were identified as potentially relevant, with 12 meeting all inclusion/exclusion criteria. From the secondary search, eight further studies met all criteria, resulting in 20 studies being included for review. Five ACL-screening methods-the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), Clinic-Based Algorithm, Observational Screening of Dynamic Knee Valgus (OSDKV), 2D-Cam Method, and Tuck Jump Assessment-were identified. There was limited evidence supporting the use of field-based screening methods in predicting ACL injuries across a range of populations. Differences relating to the equipment and time required to complete screening methods were identified. Only screening methods for ACL injury risk were included for review. Field-based screening methods developed for lower-limb injury risk in general may also incorporate, and be useful in, screening for ACL injury risk. Limited studies were available relating to the OSDKV and 2D-Cam Method. The LESS showed predictive validity in identifying ACL injuries, however only in a youth athlete population. The LESS also appears practical for community-wide use due to the minimal equipment and set-up/analysis time required. The Clinic-Based Algorithm may have predictive value for ACL injury risk as it identifies athletes who exhibit high frontal plane knee loads during a landing task, but requires extensive additional equipment and time, which may limit its application to wider community settings.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk Costs for New Dams: Economic Analysis and Effects of Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paté-Cornell, M. Elisabeth; Tagaras, George

1986-01-01

This paper presents new developments and illustrations of the introduction of risk and costs in cost-benefit analysis for new dams. The emphasis is on a method of evaluation of the risk costs based on the structure of the local economy. Costs to agricultural property as well as residential, commercial, industrial, and public property are studied in detail. Of particular interest is the case of sequential dam failure and the evaluation of the risk costs attributable to a new dam upstream from an existing one. Three real cases are presented as illustrations of the method: the Auburn Dam, the Dickey-Lincoln School Project, and the Teton Dam, which failed in 1976. This last case provides a calibration tool for the estimation of loss ratios. For these three projects, the risk-modified benefit-cost ratios are computed to assess the effect of the risk on the economic performance of the project. The role of a warning system provided by systematic monitoring of the dam is analyzed: by reducing the risk costs, the warning system attenuates their effect on the benefit-cost ratio. The precursors, however, can be missed or misinterpreted: monitoring does not guarantee that the risks to human life can be reduced to zero. This study shows, in particular, that it is critical to consider the risk costs in the decision to build a new dam when the flood area is large and densely populated.

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Heating Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shenchao; Yang, Yanchun; Liu, Yude; Zhang, Peng; Li, Siwei

2018-01-01

It is effective to reduce haze in winter by changing the distributed heat supply system. Thus, the studies on comprehensive index system and scientific evaluation method of distributed heat supply project are essential. Firstly, research the influence factors of heating modes, and an index system with multiple dimension including economic, environmental, risk and flexibility was built and all indexes were quantified. Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP was put forward to analyze the proposed multiple and comprehensive index system. Lastly, the case study suggested that supplying heat with electricity has great advantage and promotional value. The comprehensive index system of distributed heating supply project and evaluation method in this paper can evaluate distributed heat supply project effectively and provide scientific support for choosing the distributed heating project.

Net present value probability distributions from decline curve reserves estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, D.E.; Huffman, C.H.; Thompson, R.S.

1995-12-31

This paper demonstrates how reserves probability distributions can be used to develop net present value (NPV) distributions. NPV probability distributions were developed from the rate and reserves distributions presented in SPE 28333. This real data study used practicing engineer`s evaluations of production histories. Two approaches were examined to quantify portfolio risk. The first approach, the NPV Relative Risk Plot, compares the mean NPV with the NPV relative risk ratio for the portfolio. The relative risk ratio is the NPV standard deviation (a) divided the mean ({mu}) NPV. The second approach, a Risk - Return Plot, is a plot of themore » {mu} discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) versus the {sigma} for the DCFROR distribution. This plot provides a risk-return relationship for comparing various portfolios. These methods may help evaluate property acquisition and divestiture alternatives and assess the relative risk of a suite of wells or fields for bank loans.« less

Pedophilia: an evaluation of diagnostic and risk prediction methods.

PubMed

Wilson, Robin J; Abracen, Jeffrey; Looman, Jan; Picheca, Janice E; Ferguson, Meaghan

2011-06-01

One hundred thirty child sexual abusers were diagnosed using each of following four methods: (a) phallometric testing, (b) strict application of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision [DSM-IV-TR]) criteria, (c) Rapid Risk Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) scores, and (d) "expert" diagnoses rendered by a seasoned clinician. Comparative utility and intermethod consistency of these methods are reported, along with recidivism data indicating predictive validity for risk management. Results suggest that inconsistency exists in diagnosing pedophilia, leading to diminished accuracy in risk assessment. Although the RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR methods were significantly correlated with expert ratings, RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR were unrelated to each other. Deviant arousal was not associated with any of the other methods. Only the expert ratings and RRASOR scores were predictive of sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that expert diagnosis did not add to prediction of sexual offence recidivism over and above RRASOR alone. Findings are discussed within a context of encouragement of clinical consistency and evidence-based practice regarding treatment and risk management of those who sexually abuse children.

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka

2018-01-08

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Large scale seismic vulnerability and risk evaluation of a masonry churches sample in the historical centre of Naples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formisano, Antonio; Ciccone, Giuseppe; Mele, Annalisa

2017-11-01

This paper investigates about the seismic vulnerability and risk of fifteen masonry churches located in the historical centre of Naples. The used analysis method is derived from a procedure already implemented by the University of Basilicata on the churches of Matera. In order to evaluate for the study area the seismic vulnerability and hazard indexes of selected churches, the use of appropriate technical survey forms is done. Data obtained from applying the employed procedure allow for both plotting of vulnerability maps and providing seismic risk indicators of all churches. The comparison among the indexes achieved allows for the evaluation of the health state of inspected churches so to program a priority scale in performing future retrofitting interventions.

[Psychosocial risk factors at work as predictors of mobbing].

PubMed

Meseguer de Pedro, Mariano; Soler Sánchez, María I; García-Izquierdo, Mariano; Sáez Navarro, M C; Sánchez Meca, Julio

2007-05-01

This work analyses the way in which various psychosocial risk indicators may predict mobbing. A sample of 638 workers, 168 men and 470 women, from the fruit-and-vegetable sector was evaluated. An anonymous questionnaire was administered to all employees who were present on the evaluation days in the companies comprising the study. After analysing the data obtained with the mobbing questionnaire NAQ-RE (Sáez, García-Izquierdo, and Llor, 2003) and with the psychosocial risk factors evaluation method of the INSHT (Martín and Pérez, 1997), using canonical regression, we found that several psychosocial factors such as role definition, mental workload, interest in the workers, and supervision / participation predict two types of mobbing: personal mobbing and work-performance-related mobbing.

Analysis and Risk Evaluation on the Case of Alteration, Revitalization and Conversion of a Historic Building in Gdańsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grzyl, Beata; Kristowski, Adam; Miszewska-Urbańska, Emilia

2017-10-01

Each investment plan, including the one concerning a building, is exposed to the consequences of various types of threats taking place. Therefore, in the case of some large-scale, atypical and complicated building ventures, some actions included in the procedure of risk management should be taken (identifications, analysis, measurements, control and supervision of the risk). This will allow for the risk to be eliminated or limited. While preparing a building venture, an investor does not possess full information about the course of events on each stage of investment completion. The identification of the above-mentioned unknowns, subjecting them to quantification and specifying the method of dealing with them, allows an investor to increase the effectiveness of the intended plan. The enterprise discussed in this article and analyzed in the context of risk, concerns alteration, revitalization and conversion for office purposes of two buildings located in Gdańsk at 1 and 2 Lastadia Street. These buildings are situated on the area of historical urban layout of Gdańsk, in the northern-eastern part of Stare Przedmieście District (Old Suburb), about 800 meters south from Dlugi Targ Street and 200 meters west from The Old Motława River. The investor is “Gdańskie Melioracje Ltd.”, a limited liability company, which belongs to the Council of Gdańsk. In order to increase the effectiveness of the intended investment venture, while organizing the investment process, the investor commissioned preparation of an analysis and risk evaluation connected with the above-mentioned intention. Based on an on-site visit, the opinions of experts, who have been involved in the process of the preparation of the investment, studies of the available monographies about the technical condition of the buildings at 1 and 2 Lastadia Street and their own experiences, the authors identified 54 types of relevant risks, which have been systematized into 10 subject groups (among others- investor’s risk due to the designing process, location of the investment, third party or investor business activity, force majeure, political, legal, financial, technical). The scope of the study includes the identification, analysis and risk evaluation connected with planning and completion of alteration, revitalization and conversion of a historic building located at 2 Lastadia Street for the office purposes. The risk has been analyzed from the investor’s perspective. The authors used a method of preliminary analysis and risk evaluation PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) and the expert method.

Evaluation of Human Reliability in Selected Activities in the Railway Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujová, Erika; Čierna, Helena; Molenda, Michał

2016-09-01

The article focuses on evaluation of human reliability in the human - machine system in the railway industry. Based on a survey of a train dispatcher and of selected activities, we have identified risk factors affecting the dispatcher`s work and the evaluated risk level of their influence on the reliability and safety of preformed activities. The research took place at the authors` work place between 2012-2013. A survey method was used. With its help, authors were able to identify selected work activities of train dispatcher's risk factors that affect his/her work and the evaluated seriousness of its influence on the reliability and safety of performed activities. Amongst the most important finding fall expressions of unclear and complicated internal regulations and work processes, a feeling of being overworked, fear for one's safety at small, insufficiently protected stations.

A SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING COMPARATIVE RISK IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

There are significant scientific and technological challenges to managing natural resources. Data needs are cited as an obvious limitation, but there exist more fundamental scientific issues. What is still needed is a method of comparing management strategies based on projected i...

Solving a methodological challenge in work stress evaluation with the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit (StART): a study protocol.

PubMed

Guglielmi, Dina; Simbula, Silvia; Vignoli, Michela; Bruni, Ilaria; Depolo, Marco; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Tabanelli, Maria Carla; Violante, Francesco Saverio

2013-06-22

Stress evaluation is a field of strong interest and challenging due to several methodological aspects in the evaluation process. The aim of this study is to propose a study protocol to test a new method (i.e., the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit) to assess psychosocial risk factors at work. This method addresses several methodological issues (e.g., subjective vs. objective, qualitative vs quantitative data) by assessing work-related stressors using different kinds of data: i) organisational archival data (organisational indicators sheet); ii) qualitative data (focus group); iii) worker perception (questionnaire); and iv) observational data (observational checklist) using mixed methods research. In addition, it allows positive and negative aspects of work to be considered conjointly, using an approach that considers at the same time job demands and job resources. The integration of these sources of data can reduce the theoretical and methodological bias related to stress research in the work setting, allows researchers and professionals to obtain a reliable description of workers' stress, providing a more articulate vision of psychosocial risks, and allows a large amount of data to be collected. Finally, the implementation of the method ensures in the long term a primary prevention for psychosocial risk management in that it aims to reduce or modify the intensity, frequency or duration of organisational demands.

Solving a methodological challenge in work stress evaluation with the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit (StART): a study protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Stress evaluation is a field of strong interest and challenging due to several methodological aspects in the evaluation process. The aim of this study is to propose a study protocol to test a new method (i.e., the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit) to assess psychosocial risk factors at work. Design This method addresses several methodological issues (e.g., subjective vs. objective, qualitative vs quantitative data) by assessing work-related stressors using different kinds of data: i) organisational archival data (organisational indicators sheet); ii) qualitative data (focus group); iii) worker perception (questionnaire); and iv) observational data (observational checklist) using mixed methods research. In addition, it allows positive and negative aspects of work to be considered conjointly, using an approach that considers at the same time job demands and job resources. Discussion The integration of these sources of data can reduce the theoretical and methodological bias related to stress research in the work setting, allows researchers and professionals to obtain a reliable description of workers’ stress, providing a more articulate vision of psychosocial risks, and allows a large amount of data to be collected. Finally, the implementation of the method ensures in the long term a primary prevention for psychosocial risk management in that it aims to reduce or modify the intensity, frequency or duration of organisational demands. PMID:23799950

Deep Learning for Classification of Colorectal Polyps on Whole-slide Images.

PubMed

Korbar, Bruno; Olofson, Andrea M; Miraflor, Allen P; Nicka, Catherine M; Suriawinata, Matthew A; Torresani, Lorenzo; Suriawinata, Arief A; Hassanpour, Saeed

2017-01-01

Histopathological characterization of colorectal polyps is critical for determining the risk of colorectal cancer and future rates of surveillance for patients. However, this characterization is a challenging task and suffers from significant inter- and intra-observer variability. We built an automatic image analysis method that can accurately classify different types of colorectal polyps on whole-slide images to help pathologists with this characterization and diagnosis. Our method is based on deep-learning techniques, which rely on numerous levels of abstraction for data representation and have shown state-of-the-art results for various image analysis tasks. Our method covers five common types of polyps (i.e., hyperplastic, sessile serrated, traditional serrated, tubular, and tubulovillous/villous) that are included in the US Multisociety Task Force guidelines for colorectal cancer risk assessment and surveillance. We developed multiple deep-learning approaches by leveraging a dataset of 2074 crop images, which were annotated by multiple domain expert pathologists as reference standards. We evaluated our method on an independent test set of 239 whole-slide images and measured standard machine-learning evaluation metrics of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score and their 95% confidence intervals. Our evaluation shows that our method with residual network architecture achieves the best performance for classification of colorectal polyps on whole-slide images (overall accuracy: 93.0%, 95% confidence interval: 89.0%-95.9%). Our method can reduce the cognitive burden on pathologists and improve their efficacy in histopathological characterization of colorectal polyps and in subsequent risk assessment and follow-up recommendations.

Risk evaluations and condom use decisions of homeless youth: a multi-level qualitative investigation.

PubMed

Kennedy, David P; Brown, Ryan A; Morrison, Penelope; Vie, Loryana; Ryan, Gery W; Tucker, Joan S

2015-01-31

Homeless youth are at higher risk for sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancy than non-homeless youth. However, little is known about how they evaluate risk within the context of their sexual relationships. It is important to understand homeless youths' condom use decisions in light of their sexual relationships because condom use decisions are influenced by relationship dynamics in addition to individual attitudes and event circumstances. It is also important to understand how relationship level factors, sexual event circumstances, and individual characteristics compare and intersect. To explore these issues, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 37 homeless youth in Los Angeles County in 2011 concerning their recent sexual relationships and analyzed the data using systematic methods of team-based qualitative data analysis. We identified themes of risk-related evaluations and decisions at the relationship/partner, event, and individual level. We also identified three different risk profiles that emerged from analyzing how different levels of risk intersected across individual respondents. The three profiles included 1) Risk Takers, who consistently engage in risk and have low concern about consequences of risk behavior, 2) Risk Avoiders, who consistently show high concern about protection and consistently avoid risk, and 3) Risk Reactors, those who are inconsistent in their concerns about risk and protection and mainly take risks in reaction to relationship and event circumstances. Interventions targeting homeless youth should reflect multiple levels of risk behavior and evaluation in order to address the diversity of risk profiles. Relationship/partner-, event-, and individual-level factors are all important but have different levels of importance for different homeless youth. Interventions should be tailored to address the most important factor contributing to homeless youth reproductive needs.

Gene-environment interaction between adiponectin gene polymorphisms and environmental factors on the risk of diabetic retinopathy.

PubMed

Li, Yuan; Wu, Qun Hong; Jiao, Ming Li; Fan, Xiao Hong; Hu, Quan; Hao, Yan Hua; Liu, Ruo Hong; Zhang, Wei; Cui, Yu; Han, Li Yuan

2015-01-01

To evaluate whether the adiponectin gene is associated with diabetic retinopathy (DR) risk and interaction with environmental factors modifies the DR risk, and to investigate the relationship between serum adiponectin levels and DR. Four adiponectin polymorphisms were evaluated in 372 DR cases and 145 controls. Differences in environmental factors between cases and controls were evaluated by unconditional logistic regression analysis. The model-free multifactor dimensionality reduction method and traditional multiple regression models were applied to explore interactions between the polymorphisms and environmental factors. Using the Bonferroni method, we found no significant associations between four adiponectin polymorphisms and DR susceptibility. Multivariate logistic regression found that physical activity played a protective role in the progress of DR, whereas family history of diabetes (odds ratio 1.75) and insulin therapy (odds ratio 1.78) were associated with an increased risk for DR. The interaction between the C-11377 G (rs266729) polymorphism and insulin therapy might be associated with DR risk. Family history of diabetes combined with insulin therapy also increased the risk of DR. No adiponectin gene polymorphisms influenced the serum adiponectin levels. Serum adiponectin levels did not differ between the DR group and non-DR group. No significant association was identified between four adiponectin polymorphisms and DR susceptibility after stringent Bonferroni correction. The interaction between C-11377G (rs266729) polymorphism and insulin therapy, as well as the interaction between family history of diabetes and insulin therapy, might be associated with DR susceptibility.

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast accuracy. For this reason, it is necessary to clearly regulate the method of risk adjustment in the integrated care contract. The series of three articles on contract design has shown that coordination and motivation problems in designing healthcare contracts cannot be solved at no-costs. Moreover, it became clear, that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic and that contracts do always include certain uncertainties. These are based on the risk of random, and no contracting party can control these risks completely. It is also not possible to fully integrate these risks in the contract or to eliminate these risks by the parties.

Animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in Shanghai

PubMed Central

Xu, W-H; Dai, Q; Xiang, Y-B; Zhao, G-M; Zheng, W; Gao, Y-T; Ruan, Z-X; Cheng, J-R; Shu, X-O

2006-01-01

We evaluated animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in a population-based case–control study in Shanghai, China. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to collect the usual dietary habits of 1204 cases and 1212 controls aged 30–69 years between 1997 and 2003. Statistical analyses were based on an unconditional logistic regression model adjusting for potential confounders. High intake of meat and fish was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer, with adjusted odds ratios for the highest vs the lowest quartile groups being 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–2.2) and 2.4 (1.8–3.1), respectively. The elevated risk was observed for all types of meat and fish intake. Intake of eggs and milk was not related to risk. Cooking methods and doneness levels for meat and fish were not associated with risk, nor did they modify the association with meat and fish consumption. Our study suggests that animal food consumption may play an important role in the aetiology of endometrial cancer, but cooking methods have minimal influence on risk among Chinese women. PMID:17060930

Evaluation of a novel risk assessment method for self-harm associated with Borderline Personality Disorder.

PubMed

Rao, Sathya; Broadbear, Jillian H; Thompson, Katherine; Correia, Anna; Preston, Martin; Katz, Paul; Trett, Robert

2017-10-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is associated with frequent self-harm and suicidal behaviours. This study compared physician-assessed self-harm risk and intervention choice according to a (i) standard risk assessment and (ii) BPD-specific risk assessment methods. Forty-five junior and senior mental health physicians were assigned to standard or BPD-specific risk training groups. The assessment utilized a BPD case vignette containing four scenarios describing high/low lethality self-harm and chronic/new patterns of self-harm behaviour. Participants chose from among four interventions, each corresponding to a risk category. Standard and BPD-specific groups were alike in their assessment of self-harm risk. Divergence occurred on intervention choice for assessments of low lethality, chronic risk ( p<.01) and high lethality, chronic risk ( p<.005). Overall, psychiatrists were more likely than their junior colleagues to correctly assess risk and management options. Although standard and BPD-specific methods are well aligned for assessing self harm-associated risk, BPD-specific training raised awareness of BPD-appropriate interventions, particularly in the context of chronic patterns of self-harm behaviour. Wider dissemination of BPD-specific risk training may enhance the confidence of mental health clinicians in identifying the nature of self-harm risk as well as the most clinically appropriate interventions for clients with BPD.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

1991-05-01

Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

2014-02-01

The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

CHEMICAL HAZARD EVALUATION FOR MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES: A METHOD FOR RANKING AND SCORING CHEMICALS BY POTENTIAL HUMAN HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

EPA Science Inventory

Between 60,000 and 100,000 of the over than 8,000,000 chemicals listed by the Chemical Abstracts Services Registry are commercially produced and are potential environmental pollutants. Risk-based evaluation for these chemicals is often required to evaluate the potential impacts...

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

Efficacy Trial of a Brief Cognitive-Behavioral Depression Prevention Program for High-Risk Adolescents: Effects at 1- and 2-Year Follow-Up

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stice, Eric; Rohde, Paul; Gau, Jeff M.; Wade, Emily

2010-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the effects of a brief group cognitive-behavioral (CB) depression prevention program for high-risk adolescents with elevated depressive symptoms at 1- and 2-year follow-up. Method: In this indicated prevention trial, 341 at-risk youths were randomized to a group CB intervention, group supportive expressive intervention, CB…

A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

PubMed Central

Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF A FLOW CYTOMETER USED FOR DETECTING ENTEROCOCCI IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

EPA Science Inventory

The current U. S. Environmental Protection Agency-approved method for enterococci (Method 1600) in recreational water is a membrane filter (MF) method that takes 24 hours to obtain results. If the recreational water is not in compliance with the standard, the risk of exposure to...

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF NOVEL DOSE-RESPONSE MODELS FOR USE IN MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This document contains a description of dose-response modeling methods designed to provide a robust approach under uncertainty for predicting human population risk from exposure to pathogens in drinking water.

The purpose of this document is to describe a body of literatu...

QUALIFYING VARIATION IN RISKS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME TO POPULATIONS OF THE COMMON LOON

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a larger project to evaluate methods for assessing risks to wildlife populations we are investigating patterns of mortality in populations of the common loon (Gavia immer) in New England. Regionally, loon populations have declined from historic levels and despite rece...

Risk Factors Associated with Overweight and Obesity in College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desai, Melissa N.; Miller, William C.; Staples, Betty; Bravender, Terrill

2008-01-01

College obesity is increasing, but to the authors' knowledge, no researchers to date have evaluated risk factors in this population. Objective: The authors assessed whether abnormal eating perceptions and behaviors were associated with overweight in college students. Participants and Methods: A sample of undergraduates (N = 4,201) completed an…

Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

PubMed

Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

2017-11-15

This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still be exceeded in more than 70% of the samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Bayesian networks in a hierarchical structure for environmental risk assessment: a case study of the Gabric Dam, Iran.

PubMed

Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Negar

2018-04-13

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a commonly used, effective tool applied to reduce adverse effects of environmental risk factors. In this study, ERA was investigated using the Bayesian network (BN) model based on a hierarchical structure of variables in an influence diagram (ID). ID facilitated ranking of the different alternatives under uncertainty that were then used to evaluate comparisons of the different risk factors. BN was used to present a new model for ERA applicable to complicated development projects such as dam construction. The methodology was applied to the Gabric Dam, in southern Iran. The main environmental risk factors in the region, presented by the Gabric Dam, were identified based on the Delphi technique and specific features of the study area. These included the following: flood, water pollution, earthquake, changes in land use, erosion and sedimentation, effects on the population, and ecosensitivity. These risk factors were then categorized based on results from the output decision node of the BN, including expected utility values for risk factors in the decision node. ERA was performed for the Gabric Dam using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to compare results of BN modeling with those of conventional methods. Results determined that a BN-based hierarchical structure to ERA present acceptable and reasonable risk assessment prioritization in proposing suitable solutions to reduce environmental risks and can be used as a powerful decision support system for evaluating environmental risks.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

Comparative Efficacy and Durability of Continuation Phase Cognitive Therapy for Preventing Recurrent Depression: Design of a Double-Blinded, Fluoxetine- and Pill-Placebo–Controlled, Randomized Trial with 2-Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Thase, Michael E.

2010-01-01

Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) is highly prevalent and associated with disability and chronicity. Although cognitive therapy (CT) is an effective short-term treatment for MDD, a significant proportion of responders subsequently suffer relapses or recurrences. Purpose This design prospectively evaluates: 1) a method to discriminate CT-treated responders at lower versus higher risk for relapse; and 2) the subsequent durability of 8-month continuation phase therapies in randomized higher risk responders followed for an additional 24-months. The primary prediction is: after protocol treatments are stopped, higher risk patients randomly assigned to continuation phase CT (C-CT) will have a lower risk of relapse/recurrence than those randomized to fluoxetine (FLX). Methods Outpatients, aged 18 to 70 years, with recurrent MDD received 12–14 weeks of CT provided by 15 experienced therapists from two sites. Responders (i.e., no MDD and 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression ≤ 12) were stratified into higher and lower risk groups based on stability of remission during the last 6 weeks of CT. The lower risk group entered follow-up for 32 months; the higher risk group was randomized to 8 months of continuation phase therapy with either C-CT or clinical management plus either double-blinded FLX or pill placebo. Following the continuation phase, higher risk patients were followed by blinded evaluators for 24 months. Results The trial began in 2000. Enrollment is complete (N=523). The follow-up continues. Conclusions The trial evaluates the preventive effects and durability of acute and continuation phase treatments in the largest known sample of CT responders collected worldwide. PMID:20451668

Problems With Risk Reclassification Methods for Evaluating Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Pepe, Margaret S.

2011-01-01

For comparing the performance of a baseline risk prediction model with one that includes an additional predictor, a risk reclassification analysis strategy has been proposed. The first step is to cross-classify risks calculated according to the 2 models for all study subjects. Summary measures including the percentage of reclassification and the percentage of correct reclassification are calculated, along with 2 reclassification calibration statistics. The author shows that interpretations of the proposed summary measures and P values are problematic. The author's recommendation is to display the reclassification table, because it shows interesting information, but to use alternative methods for summarizing and comparing model performance. The Net Reclassification Index has been suggested as one alternative method. The author argues for reporting components of the Net Reclassification Index because they are more clinically relevant than is the single numerical summary measure. PMID:21555714

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast accuracy. For this reason, it is necessary to clearly regulate the method of risk adjustment in the integrated care contract. Conclusions and discussion: The series of three articles on contract design has shown that coordination and motivation problems in designing healthcare contracts cannot be solved at no-costs. Moreover, it became clear, that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic and that contracts do always include certain uncertainties. These are based on the risk of random, and no contracting party can control these risks completely. It is also not possible to fully integrate these risks in the contract or to eliminate these risks by the parties. PMID:29632454

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-11-26

Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

Working postures of dental students: ergonomic analysis using the Ovako Working Analysis System and rapid upper limb assessment.

PubMed

Petromilli Nordi Sasso Garcia, Patrícia; Polli, Gabriela Scatimburgo; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2013-01-01

As dentistry is a profession that demands a manipulative precision of hand movements, musculoskeletal disorders are among the most common occupational diseases. This study estimated the risk of musculoskeletal disorders developing in dental students using the Ovako Working Analysis System (OWAS) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) methods, and estimated the diagnostic agreement between the 2 methods. Students (n = 75), enrolled in the final undergraduate year at the Araraquara School of Dentistry--UNESP--were studied. Photographs were taken of students while performing diverse clinical procedures (n = 283) using a digital camera, which were assessed using OWAS and RULA. A risk score was attributed following each procedure performed by the student. The prevalence of the risk of musculoskeletal disorders was estimated per point and for a 95% CI. To assess the agreement between the 2 methods, Kappa statistics with linear weighting were used. The level of significance adopted was 5%. There was a high prevalence of the mean score for risk of musculoskeletal disorders in the dental students evaluated according to the OWAS method (p = 97.88%; 95% CI: 96.20-99.56%), and a high prevalence of the high score (p = 40.6; 95% CI: 34.9-46.4%) and extremely high risk (p = 59.4%; 95% CI: 53.6-65.1%) according to RULA method Null agreement was verified (k = 0) in the risk di agnosis of the tested methods. The risk of musculoskeletal disorders in dental students estimated by the OWAS method was medium, whereas the same risk by the RULA method was extremely high. There was no diagnostic agreement between the OWAS and RULA methods.

Low-thrust mission risk analysis, with application to a 1980 rendezvous with the comet Encke

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yen, C. L.; Smith, D. B.

1973-01-01

A computerized failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust sybsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargeting operations. The method is applied to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to the comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates are the limiting factors in attaining a high mission relability. It is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

An Empirical Assessment of Defense Contractor Risk 1976-1984.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Model to evaluate the. Department of Defense contract pricing , financing, and profit policies . ’ D*’ ’ *NTV D? 7A’:: TA E *A l ..... -:- A-i SN 0102...defense con- tractor risk-return relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean-variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model ...relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean- variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model , mean-variance analysis of total

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less

Determining an appropriate integrated assessment model of tourism safety risk within the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lijun; Liu, Jisheng

2017-03-01

Tourism safety is gradually gaining more attention due to the rapid development of the tourism industry in China. Changbai Mountain is one of the most famous mountainous scenic areas in Northeast Asia. Assessment on Changbai Mountain scenic area’s tourism safety risk could do a favor in detecting influence factor of tourism safety risk and classifying tourism safety risk rank, thereby reducing and preventing associated tourism safety risks. This paper uses the Changbai Mountain scenic area as the study subject. By the means of experts scoring and analytic hierarchy process on quantified relevant evaluation indicator, the grid GIS method is used to vectorize the relevant data within a 1000m grid. It respectively analyzes main indicators associated tourism safety risk in Changbai Mountain scenic area, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability and ability to prevent and mitigate disasters. The integrated tourism safety risk model is used to comprehensively evaluate tourism safety risk in Changbai Mountain scenic area.

Nutritional Management of Kidney Stones (Nephrolithiasis)

PubMed Central

Segal, Adam M.; Seifter, Julian L.; Dwyer, Johanna T.

2015-01-01

The incidence of kidney stones is common in the United States and treatments for them are very costly. This review article provides information about epidemiology, mechanism, diagnosis, and pathophysiology of kidney stone formation, and methods for the evaluation of stone risks for new and follow-up patients. Adequate evaluation and management can prevent recurrence of stones. Kidney stone prevention should be individualized in both its medical and dietary management, keeping in mind the specific risks involved for each type of stones. Recognition of these risk factors and development of long-term management strategies for dealing with them are the most effective ways to prevent recurrence of kidney stones. PMID:26251832

Evaluating Periodontal Treatment to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: Challenges and Possible Solutions.

PubMed

Merchant, Anwar T; Virani, Salim S

2017-01-01

Periodontal disease is correlated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in observational studies, but a causal connection has not been established. The empirical evidence linking periodontal disease and CVD consists of a large body of observational and mechanistic studies, but a limited number of clinical trials evaluating the effects of periodontal treatment on surrogate CVD endpoints. No randomized controlled trial has been conducted to evaluate the effect of periodontal treatment on CVD risk. In this review, we have summarized these data, described possible biological mechanisms linking periodontal disease and CVD, discussed barriers to conducting a randomized controlled trial to evaluate this hypothesis, and provided an alternative analytical approach using causal inference methods to answer the question. The public health implications of addressing this question can be significant because periodontal disease is under-treated, and highly prevalent among adults at risk of CVD. Even a small beneficial effect of periodontal treatment on CVD risk can be important.

Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

PubMed

Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

2017-04-15

This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling in Atypical Endometrial Hyperplasia: Which Method Results in the Lowest Underestimation of Endometrial Cancer? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bourdel, Nicolas; Chauvet, Pauline; Tognazza, Enrica; Pereira, Bruno; Botchorishvili, Revaz; Canis, Michel

2016-01-01

Our objective was to identify the most accurate method of endometrial sampling for the diagnosis of complex atypical hyperplasia (CAH), and the related risk of underestimation of endometrial cancer. We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed and EMBASE (January 1999-September 2013) to identify all registered articles on this subject. Studies were selected with a 2-step method. First, titles and abstracts were analyzed by 2 reviewers, and 69 relevant articles were selected for full reading. Then, the full articles were evaluated to determine whether full inclusion criteria were met. We selected 27 studies, taking into consideration the comparison between histology of endometrial hyperplasia obtained by diagnostic tests of interest (uterine curettage, hysteroscopically guided biopsy, or hysteroscopic endometrial resection) and subsequent results of hysterectomy. Analysis of the studies reviewed focused on 1106 patients with a preoperative diagnosis of atypical endometrial hyperplasia. The mean risk of finding endometrial cancer at hysterectomy after atypical endometrial hyperplasia diagnosed by uterine curettage was 32.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26.2-39.9), with a risk of 45.3% (95% CI, 32.8-58.5) after hysteroscopically guided biopsy and 5.8% (95% CI, 0.8-31.7) after hysteroscopic resection. In total, the risk of underestimation of endometrial cancer reaches a very high rate in patients with CAH using the classic method of evaluation (i.e., uterine curettage or hysteroscopically guided biopsy). This rate of underdiagnosed endometrial cancer leads to the risk of inappropriate surgical procedures (31.7% of tubal conservation in the data available and no abdominal exploration in 24.6% of the cases). Hysteroscopic resection seems to reduce the risk of underdiagnosed endometrial cancer. Copyright © 2016 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer-Assisted Diabetes Risk Assessment and Education (CADRAE) for Medically Vulnerable Populations in the Middle East: a Novel and Practical Method for Prevention

PubMed Central

Rowther, Armaan A.; Dykzeul, Brad; Billimek, John; Abuhassan, Deyana; Anderson, Craig; Lotfipour, Shahram

2016-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes in the Middle East is increasing rapidly due to urbanization, reduced levels of physical activity, and a nutritional transition toward increased consumption of fats and refined carbohydrates. Preventive strategies are of paramount importance to stemming the tide. Portable touch-screen computer technology may hold an answer for alleviating the burdens of cost, time, and training that limit the implementation of diabetes risk screening and intervention, especially among refugees and other vulnerable populations. The Computer-Assisted Diabetes Risk Assessment and Education (CADRAE) Arabic-language intervention program is proposed as a model method for practicing proactive type 2 diabetes prevention in resource-limited settings of the Middle East that combines the efficiency of risk-score screening methods, the advantages of portable computer interface, and the spirit of brief motivational interviewing. This paper aims to describe the theory and novel design of CADRAE—introduced at the Noor Al Hussein Foundation's Institute of Family Health in January 2014—as well as discuss opportunities and challenges for its implementation and evaluation in primary or emergency care settings. Features of CADRAE are elucidated in detail, including development, translation, conceptual framework, theoretical basis, method of risk assessment, brief intervention style, definition of outcomes, requirements for implementation, and potential means of evaluation and quality improvement. CADRAE offers the first example of portable computer technology integrating diabetes risk screening with behavior change counseling tailored for an Arabic-speaking population of mostly refugees and could offer a valuable model for researchers and policy makers of the Middle East as well as other resource-limited settings. PMID:26835181

Evaluation of the DIBELS (Sixth Edition) Diagnostic System for the Selection of Native and Proficient English Speakers at Risk of Reading Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smolkowski, Keith; Cummings, Kelli D.

2016-01-01

This comprehensive evaluation of the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills Sixth Edition (DIBELS6) set of measures gives a practical illustration of signal detection methods, the methods used to determine the value of screening and diagnostic systems, and offers an updated set of cut scores (decision thresholds). Data were drawn from a…

Evidence-based risk communication: a systematic review.

PubMed

Zipkin, Daniella A; Umscheid, Craig A; Keating, Nancy L; Allen, Elizabeth; Aung, KoKo; Beyth, Rebecca; Kaatz, Scott; Mann, Devin M; Sussman, Jeremy B; Korenstein, Deborah; Schardt, Connie; Nagi, Avishek; Sloane, Richard; Feldstein, David A

2014-08-19

Effective communication of risks and benefits to patients is critical for shared decision making. To review the comparative effectiveness of methods of communicating probabilistic information to patients that maximize their cognitive and behavioral outcomes. PubMed (1966 to March 2014) and CINAHL, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (1966 to December 2011) using several keywords and structured terms. Prospective or cross-sectional studies that recruited patients or healthy volunteers and compared any method of communicating probabilistic information with another method. Two independent reviewers extracted study characteristics and assessed risk of bias. Eighty-four articles, representing 91 unique studies, evaluated various methods of numerical and visual risk display across several risk scenarios and with diverse outcome measures. Studies showed that visual aids (icon arrays and bar graphs) improved patients' understanding and satisfaction. Presentations including absolute risk reductions were better than those including relative risk reductions for maximizing accuracy and seemed less likely than presentations with relative risk reductions to influence decisions to accept therapy. The presentation of numbers needed to treat reduced understanding. Comparative effects of presentations of frequencies (such as 1 in 5) versus event rates (percentages, such as 20%) were inconclusive. Most studies were small and highly variable in terms of setting, context, and methods of administering interventions. Visual aids and absolute risk formats can improve patients' understanding of probabilistic information, whereas numbers needed to treat can lessen their understanding. Due to study heterogeneity, the superiority of any single method for conveying probabilistic information is not established, but there are several good options to help clinicians communicate with patients. None.

Risk factors associated with nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome in horses.

PubMed

Norman, Tracy E; Chaffin, M Keith; Bissett, Wesley T; Thompson, James A

2013-05-01

To determine risk factors associated with the development of nasopharyngeal cicatrix syndrome (NCS) in horses. Retrospective case-control study. 242 horses referred for endoscopic evaluation of the upper portion of the respiratory tract (121 horses with NCS and 121 control horses). Medical records of horses that had an endoscopic evaluation of the upper airway performed between January 2003 and December 2008 were reviewed. Signalment, housing management, and season of evaluation were recorded and reviewed for each horse. The associations between clinical signs and endoscopic findings were evaluated by the use of a prospective logistic model that included a Bayesian method for inference. Results-Breed and sex had no significant effect on the risk of having NCS. The risk that a horse had NCS increased significantly with age. Exclusive housing in a stall was protective against the development of NCS. In addition, the amount of pasture turnout had a dose-related effect, with exclusive pasture turnout positively correlated with increased risk of developing NCS, compared with a mixture of pasture turnout and stall confinement. Horses were significantly more likely to be evaluated because of clinical signs of the syndrome during the warm months of the year. The risk factors for NCS identified in this study may support chronic environmental exposure to an irritant or infectious agent as the cause of NCS. Information gained from this study should be useful for investigating the cause of NCS.

An operations-partnered evaluation of care redesign for high-risk patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA): Study protocol for the PACT Intensive Management (PIM) randomized quality improvement evaluation.

PubMed

Chang, Evelyn T; Zulman, Donna M; Asch, Steven M; Stockdale, Susan E; Yoon, Jean; Ong, Michael K; Lee, Martin; Simon, Alissa; Atkins, David; Schectman, Gordon; Kirsh, Susan R; Rubenstein, Lisa V

2018-06-01

Patient-centered medical homes have made great strides providing comprehensive care for patients with chronic conditions, but may not provide sufficient support for patients at highest risk for acute care use. To address this, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) initiated a five-site demonstration project to evaluate the effectiveness of augmenting the VA's Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) medical home with PACT Intensive Management (PIM) teams for Veterans at highest risk for hospitalization. Researchers partnered with VHA leadership to design a mixed-methods prospective multi-site evaluation that met leadership's desire for a rigorous evaluation conducted as quality improvement rather than research. We conducted a randomized QI evaluation and assigned high-risk patients to participate in PIM and compared them with high-risk Veterans receiving usual care through PACT. The summative evaluation examines whether PIM: 1) decreases VHA emergency department and hospital use; 2) increases satisfaction with VHA care; 3) decreases provider burnout; and 4) generates positive returns on investment. The formative evaluation aims to support improved care for high-risk patients at demonstration sites and to inform future initiatives for high-risk patients. The evaluation was reviewed by representatives from the VHA Office of Research and Development and the Office of Research Oversight and met criteria for quality improvement. VHA aims to function as a learning organization by rapidly implementing and rigorously testing QI innovations prior to final program or policy development. We observed challenges and opportunities in designing an evaluation consistent with QI standards and operations priorities, while also maintaining scientific rigor. This trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 3, 2017: NCT03100526. Protocol v1, FY14-17. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

PubMed Central

Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

2015-01-01

Background Current approaches to chemical screening, prioritization, and assessment are being reenvisioned, driven by innovations in chemical safety testing, new chemical regulations, and demand for information on human and environmental impacts of chemicals. To conceptualize these changes through the lens of a prevalent disease, the Breast Cancer and Chemicals Policy project convened an interdisciplinary expert panel to investigate methods for identifying chemicals that may increase breast cancer risk. Methods Based on a review of current evidence, the panel identified key biological processes whose perturbation may alter breast cancer risk. We identified corresponding assays to develop the Hazard Identification Approach for Breast Carcinogens (HIA-BC), a method for detecting chemicals that may raise breast cancer risk. Finally, we conducted a literature-based pilot test of the HIA-BC. Results The HIA-BC identifies assays capable of detecting alterations to biological processes relevant to breast cancer, including cellular and molecular events, tissue changes, and factors that alter susceptibility. In the pilot test of the HIA-BC, chemicals associated with breast cancer all demonstrated genotoxic or endocrine activity, but not necessarily both. Significant data gaps persist. Conclusions This approach could inform the development of toxicity testing that targets mechanisms relevant to breast cancer, providing a basis for identifying safer chemicals. The study identified important end points not currently evaluated by federal testing programs, including altered mammary gland development, Her2 activation, progesterone receptor activity, prolactin effects, and aspects of estrogen receptor β activity. This approach could be extended to identify the biological processes and screening methods relevant for other common diseases. Citation Schwarzman MR, Ackerman JM, Dairkee SH, Fenton SE, Johnson D, Navarro KM, Osborne G, Rudel RA, Solomon GM, Zeise L, Janssen S. 2015. Screening for chemical contributions to breast cancer risk: a case study for chemical safety evaluation. Environ Health Perspect 123:1255–1264; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408337 PMID:26032647

Orbiter Window Hypervelocity Impact Strength Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Lynda R.

2011-01-01

When the Space Shuttle Orbiter incurs damage on its windowpane during flight from particles traveling at hypervelocity speeds, it produces a distinctive damage that reduces the overall strength of the pane. This damage has the potential to increase the risk associated with a safe return to Earth. Engineers at Boeing and NASA/JSC are called to Mission Control to evaluate the damage and provide an assessment on the risk to the crew. Historically, damages like these were categorized as "accepted risk" associated with manned spaceflight, and as long as the glass was intact, engineers gave a "go ahead" for entry for the Orbiter. Since the Columbia accident, managers have given more scrutiny to these assessments, and this has caused the Orbiter window engineers to capitalize on new methods of assessments for these damages. This presentation will describe the original methodology that was used to asses the damages, and introduce a philosophy new to the Shuttle program for assessing structural damage, reliability/risk-based engineering. The presentation will also present a new, recently adopted method for assessing the damage and providing management with a reasonable assessment on the realities of the risk to the crew and vehicle for return.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Study on Failure of Third-Party Damage for Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Zhang, Hong; Han, Yinshan; Wang, Baodong

2016-01-01

Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention. PMID:27875545

A Highly Sensitive Assay Using Synthetic Blood Containing Test Microbes for Evaluation of the Penetration Resistance of Protective Clothing Material under Applied Pressure.

PubMed

Shimasaki, Noriko; Hara, Masayuki; Kikuno, Ritsuko; Shinohara, Katsuaki

2016-01-01

To prevent nosocomial infections caused by even either Ebola virus or methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), healthcare workers must wear the appropriate protective clothing which can inhibit contact transmission of these pathogens. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of protective clothing for penetration resistance against infectious agents. In Japan, some standard methods were established to evaluate the penetration resistance of protective clothing fabric materials under applied pressure. However, these methods only roughly classified the penetration resistance of fabrics, and the detection sensitivity of the methods and the penetration amount with respect to the relationship between blood and the pathogen have not been studied in detail. Moreover, no standard method using bacteria for evaluation is known. Here, to evaluate penetration resistance of protective clothing materials under applied pressure, the detection sensitivity and the leak amount were investigated by using synthetic blood containing bacteriophage phi-X174 or S. aureus. And the volume of leaked synthetic blood and the amount of test microbe penetration were simultaneously quantified. Our results showed that the penetration detection sensitivity achieved using a test microbial culture was higher than that achieved using synthetic blood at invisible leak level pressures. This finding suggested that there is a potential risk of pathogen penetration even when visual leak of contaminated blood through the protective clothing was not observed. Moreover, at visible leak level pressures, it was found that the amount of test microbe penetration varied at least ten-fold among protective clothing materials classified into the same class of penetration resistance. Analysis of the penetration amount revealed a significant correlation between the volume of penetrated synthetic blood and the amount of test microbe penetration, indicating that the leaked volume of synthetic blood could be considered as a latent indicator for infection risk, that the amount of exposure to contaminated blood corresponds to the risk of infection. Our study helped us ascertain, with high sensitivity, the differences among fabric materials with respect to their protective performance, which may facilitate effective selection of protective clothing depending on the risk assessment.

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

PubMed Central

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2018-01-01

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases.

PubMed

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J

2016-06-21

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human-tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016.This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Management of high-risk perioperative systems.

PubMed

Dain, Steven

2006-06-01

The perioperative system is a complex system that requires people, materials, and processes to come together in a highly ordered and timely manner. However, when working in this high-risk system, even well-organized, knowledgeable, vigilant, and well-intentioned individuals will eventually make errors. All systems need to be evaluated on a continual basis to reduce the risk of errors, make errors more easily recognizable, and provide methods for error mitigation. A simple approach to risk management that may be applied in clinical medicine is discussed.

Risks Associated with Federal Construction Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

awarding contracts for construction projects (USACE, 2010). BIM offers a method to effectively design a facility while maximizing work performance during...includes Requirements, Programming, Funding, Solicitation, AEC Evaluation, Award , Project Validation, Design and Construction, and Project Management...includes the Solicitation, AEC Evaluation, and Award Steps. In this Phase, BIM is only used in the Solicitation and the AEC Evaluation steps

Priorities and prospect theory.

PubMed

Happich, M; Mazurek, B

2002-01-01

Whose preferences are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis? It has been recommended that community preferences for health states are the most appropriate ones for use in a reference case analysis. However, critics maintain that persons are not able properly to judge a health state if they have not experienced the condition themselves. This problem is analyzed here in the framework of Prospect Theory. It can be argued that the differing reference points of patients and the general public are responsible for deviating results. In addition, we argue that risk attitudes with respect to health-related quality of life are an indicator of reference points. If patients and the general public refer to the same reference point, i.e., they have the same risk attitude, the hypothesis is that deviations no longer significantly differ. Evaluations of the health condition of tinnitus by 210 patients and 210 unaffected persons were compared. The Time Tradeoff and Standard Gamble methods were applied to elicit preferences. Risk attitude was measured with the question of whether participants would undergo a treatment that could either improve or worsen their health condition, both with an equal chance (five possible answers between "in no case" and "in any case"). Affected persons indicated significantly higher values for tinnitus-related quality of life according to the Standard Gamble method. The difference between Time Tradeoff values was less dramatic but still significant. In addition, nonaffected persons are more risk-averse than affected persons. However, differences in evaluations are not significant considering single risk groups (e.g., those who answered "in no case"). Prospect Theory is a reasonable framework for considering the question of whose preferences count. If this result can be generalized for other diseases as well, it allows the mathematical combination of "objective" evaluations by the general public with the illness experience of patients. These evaluations should be weighted with patients' risk attitudes, i.e., community preferences can be used if they are corrected for risk attitudes.

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

A novel method for assessing risks to pollinators from plant protection products using honeybees as a model species.

PubMed

Barmaz, Stefania; Potts, Simon G; Vighi, Marco

2010-10-01

Pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services in agroecosystems and supports food production. Pollinators are potentially at risk being exposed to pesticides and the main route of exposure is direct contact, in some cases ingestion, of contaminated materials such as pollen, nectar, flowers and foliage. To date there are no suitable methods for predicting pesticide exposure for pollinators, therefore official procedures to assess pesticide risk are based on a Hazard Quotient. Here we develop a procedure to assess exposure and risk for pollinators based on the foraging behaviour of honeybees (Apis mellifera) and using this species as indicator representative of pollinating insects. The method was applied in 13 European field sites with different climatic, landscape and land use characteristics. The level of risk during the crop growing season was evaluated as a function of the active ingredients used and application regime. Risk levels were primarily determined by the agronomic practices employed (i.e. crop type, pest control method, pesticide use), and there was a clear temporal partitioning of risks through time. Generally the risk was higher in sites cultivated with permanent crops, such as vineyard and olive, than in annual crops, such as cereals and oil seed rape. The greatest level of risk is generally found at the beginning of the growing season for annual crops and later in June-July for permanent crops.

Assessing the effect of public health information by incentivised risk estimation: An example on Swedish snus.

PubMed

Bergsvik, Daniel; Rogeberg, Ole

2018-04-01

The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs. Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus. The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors. Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

2018-05-01

School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values <0.001 under unpaired t-test). In particular, there were significant differences in individual SSS items between the two groups (p-value <0.001). Of these items, Previous Violent Behavior (Pearson Correlation = 0.80), Impulsivity (0.69), School Problems (0.64), and Negative Attitudes (0.61) were positively correlated with risk to others. The novel machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.

Using SPMDs To Assess Natural Recovery Of PCB-Contaminated Sediments In Lake Hartwell, SC: I. A Field Test Of New In-Situ Deployment Methods

EPA Science Inventory

Results from the field testing of some innovative sampling methods developed to evaluate risk management strategies for polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminated sediments are presented. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were combined with novel deployment methods to quan...

A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF A FLOW CYTOMETER USED FOR DETECTING ENTEROCOCCUS FAECIUM AND ENTEROCOCCUS FAECALIS IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

EPA Science Inventory

The current U. S. Environmental Protection Agency-approved method for Enterococci (Method 1600) in recreational water is a membrane filter (MF) method that takes 24 hours to obtain results. If the recreational water is not in compliance with the standard, the risk of exposure to...

Comparing and combining biomarkers as principle surrogates for time-to-event clinical endpoints.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Gilbert, Peter B

2015-02-10

Principal surrogate endpoints are useful as targets for phase I and II trials. In many recent trials, multiple post-randomization biomarkers are measured. However, few statistical methods exist for comparison of or combination of biomarkers as principal surrogates, and none of these methods to our knowledge utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information. We propose a Weibull model extension of the semi-parametric estimated maximum likelihood method that allows for the inclusion of multiple biomarkers in the same risk model as multivariate candidate principal surrogates. We propose several methods for comparing candidate principal surrogates and evaluating multivariate principal surrogates. These include the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent true and false positive fraction, the time-dependent and the integrated standardized total gain, and the cumulative distribution function of the risk difference. We illustrate the operating characteristics of our proposed methods in simulations and outline how these statistics can be used to evaluate and compare candidate principal surrogates. We use these methods to investigate candidate surrogates in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

PubMed Central

Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

2013-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

Viability qPCR, a new tool for Legionella risk management.

PubMed

Lizana, X; López, A; Benito, S; Agustí, G; Ríos, M; Piqué, N; Marqués, A M; Codony, F

2017-11-01

Viability quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (v-qPCR) is a recent analytical approach for only detecting live microorganisms by DNA amplification-based methods This approach is based on the use of a reagent that irreversibly fixes dead cells DNA. In this study, we evaluate the utility of v-qPCR versus culture method for Legionellosis risk management. The present study was performed using 116 real samples. Water samples were simultaneously analysed by culture, v-qPCR and qPCR methods. Results were compared by means of a non-parametric test. In 11.6% of samples using both methods (culture method and v-qPCR) results were positive, in 50.0% of samples both methods gave rise to negative results. As expected, equivalence between methods was not observed in all cases, as in 32.1% of samples positive results were obtained by v-qPCR and all of them gave rise to negative results by culture. Only in 6.3% of samples, with very low Legionella levels, was culture positive and v-qPCR negative. In 3.5% of samples, overgrowth of other bacteria did not allow performing the culture. When comparing both methods, significant differences between culture and v-qPCR were in the samples belonging to the cooling towers-evaporative condensers group. The v-qPCR method detected greater presence and obtained higher concentrations of Legionella spp. (p<0.001). Otherwise, no significant differences between methods were found in the rest of the groups. The v-qPCR method can be used as a quick tool to evaluate Legionellosis risk, especially in cooling towers-evaporative condensers, where this technique can detect higher levels than culture. The combined interpretation of PCR results along with the ratio of live cells is proposed as a tool for understanding the sample context and estimating the Legionellosis risk potential according to 4 levels of hierarchy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Implicit Attitudes toward Children May Be Unrelated to Child Abuse Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Risser, Heather J.; Skowronski, John J.; Crouch, Julie L.

2011-01-01

Objective: To explore whether adults possess implicit attitudes toward children and whether those attitudes are especially negative among respondents who are high in child physical abuse (CPA) risk. Methods: The present study used an implicit evaluative priming procedure. In this procedure, participants were instructed to make decisions about the…

Low levels of energy expenditure in childhood cancer survivors: Implications for obesity prevention

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Childhood cancer survivors are at an increased risk of obesity but causes for this elevated risk are uncertain. We evaluated total energy expenditure in childhood cancer survivors using the doubly labeled water method in a cross-sectional study of 17 survivors of pediatric leukemia or lymphoma (medi...

Exercise and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Graduate Students: A Longitudinal, Observational Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Racette, Susan B.; Inman, Cindi L.; Clark, B. Ruth; Royer, Nathaniel K.; Steger-May, Karen; Deusinger, Susan S.

2014-01-01

Objective: To evaluate cardiometabolic risk of students longitudinally and compare them with age-matched national samples. Participants: Participants are 134 graduate students enrolled between August 2005 and May 2010. Methods: Students were assessed at the beginning and end of their 3-year curriculum. Comparative samples included 966 National…

In vivo and in vitro methods for evaluating soil arsenic bioavailability: relevant to human health risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Arsenic (As) is the most frequently occurring contaminant on the priority list of hazardous substances, which lists substances of greatest public health concern to people living at or near U.S. National Priorities List site. Accurate assessment of human health risks from exposure...

Reading and Language Intervention for Children at Risk of Dyslexia: A Randomised Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duff, Fiona J.; Hulme, Charles; Grainger, Katy; Hardwick, Samantha J.; Miles, Jeremy N. V.; Snowling, Margaret J.

2014-01-01

Background: Intervention studies for children at risk of dyslexia have typically been delivered preschool, and show short-term effects on letter knowledge and phoneme awareness, with little transfer to literacy. Methods: This randomised controlled trial evaluated the effectiveness of a reading and language intervention for 6-year-old children…

Sexual Attitudes and Risk-Taking Behaviors of High School Students in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aras, Sahbal; Semin, Semih; Gunay, Turkan; Orcin, Esmahan; Ozan, Sema

2007-01-01

Background: The risk of sexually transmitted diseases is high but opportunities of sexual education for adolescents are limited in Turkey. The aim of this study was to evaluate sexual attitudes and behaviors and to determine the predictors of sexual initiation among adolescents. Methods: A questionnaire designed by the researchers was administered…

Cognitive Processes Underlying Women's Risk Judgments: Associations with Sexual Victimization History and Rape Myth Acceptance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeater, Elizabeth A.; Treat, Teresa A.; Viken, Richard J.; McFall, Richard M.

2010-01-01

Objective: This study evaluated the effects of sexual victimization history, rape myth acceptance, implicit attention, and recent learning on the cognitive processes underlying undergraduate women's explicit risk judgments. Method: Participants were 194 undergraduate women between 18 and 24 years of age. The sample was ethnically diverse and…

Exposure assessment and risk management of engineered nanoparticles: Investigation in semiconductor wafer processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, Michele N.

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are currently used in hundreds of commercial products and industrial processes, with more applications being investigated. Nanomaterials have unique properties that differ from bulk materials. While these properties may enable technological advancements, the potential risks of ENMs to people and the environment are not yet fully understood. Certain low solubility nanoparticles are more toxic than their bulk material, such that existing occupational exposure limits may not be sufficiently protective for workers. Risk assessments are currently challenging due to gaps in data on the numerous emerging materials and applications as well as method uncertainties and limitations. Chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) processes with engineered nanoparticle abrasives are used for research and commercial manufacturing applications in the semiconductor and related industries. Despite growing use, no published studies addressed occupational exposures to nanoparticles associated with CMP or risk assessment and management practices for these scenarios. Additional studies are needed to evaluate potential sources of workplace exposure or emission, as well as to help test and refine assessment methods. This research was conducted to: identify the lifecycle stages and potential exposure sources for ENMs in CMP processes; characterize worker exposure; determine recommended engineering controls and compare risk assessment models. The study included workplace air and surface sampling and an evaluation of qualitative risk banding approaches. Exposure assessment results indicated the potential for worker contact with ENMs on workplace surfaces but did not identify nanoparticles readily dispersed in air during work tasks. Some increases in respirable particle concentrations were identified, but not consistently. Measured aerosol concentrations by number and mass were well below current reference values for poorly soluble low toxicity nanoparticles. From application and evaluation of qualitative risk assessment approaches, differences in control banding models and results were identified, although output generally agreed with conclusions from air sampling as to whether an upgrade in site engineering controls was recommended. This research helped to improve understanding of potential worker exposures to ENMs in CMP processes, as well as the methods for risk assessment and management of metal oxide nanoparticles in occupational environments.

Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pietrzyk, R. A.; Feiveson, A. H.; Whitson, P. A.

1999-01-01

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

Knowledge and perceptions of familial and genetic risks for breast cancer risk in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Bradbury, Angela R.; Patrick-Miller, Linda; Egleston, Brian L.; Schwartz, Lisa A.; Sands, Colleen B.; Shorter, Rebecca; Moore, Cynthia W.; Tuchman, Lisa; Rauch, Paula; Malhotra, Shreya; Rowan, Brianne; van Decker, Stephanie; Schmidheiser, Helen; Bealin, Lisa; Sicilia, Patrick; Daly, Mary B.

2012-01-01

Background Evidence suggests early events might modify adult breast cancer risk and many adolescents learn of familial and genetic risks for breast cancer. Little is known about how adolescent girls understand and respond to breast cancer risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews with 11-19 year-old girls at high-risk and population-risk for breast cancer evaluated knowledge and perceptions of breast cancer risk and risk modification. Framework analysis and descriptive statistics were utilized to analyze open-ended responses. Risk group and age differences were evaluated by Fisher’s exact and McNemar’s tests. Results 54 girls (86% of invited), 35 high-risk (65%) and 19 population-risk (35%) completed interviews. The most frequently reported risk for breast cancer was family history/hereditary predisposition (66%). Only 17% of girls were aware of BRCA1/2 genes. The majority (76%) of high-risk girls perceive themselves to be at increased risk for breast cancer, compared to 22% of population-risk girls (p=0.001). Half of girls reported that women can get breast cancer before 20 years old. The majority believe there are things women (70%) and girls (67%) can do to prevent breast cancer. Mother was the most frequently reported source of information for breast cancer among both high-risk (97%) and population-risk (89%) girls. Conclusion In this study, many high-risk girls perceive themselves to be at increased risk for breast cancer, and many girls believe that breast cancer can occur in teens. Yet, most girls believe there are things women and girls can do to prevent breast cancer. Research evaluating the impact of awareness and perceptions of breast cancer risk on psychosocial, health and risk behaviors is needed to develop strategies to optimize responses to cancer risk. PMID:23065030

Evaluation of the stepwise collimation method for the reduction of the patient dose in full spine radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Lee, Sunyoung; Yang, Injeong; Yoon, Myeonggeun

2014-05-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the dose reduction when using the stepwise collimation method for scoliosis patients undergoing full spine radiography. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to acquire dose vs. volume data for organs at risk (OAR) in the human body. While the effective doses in full spine radiography were reduced by 8, 15, 27 and 44% by using four different sizes of the collimation, the doses to the skin were reduced by 31, 44, 55 and 66%, indicating that the reduction of the dose to the skin is higher than that to organs inside the body. Although the reduction rates were low for the gonad, being 9, 14, 18 and 23%, there was more than a 30% reduction in the dose to the heart, suggesting that the dose reduction depends significantly on the location of the OARs in the human body. The reduction rate of the secondary cancer risk based on the excess absolute risk (EAR) varied from 0.6 to 3.4 per 10,000 persons, depending on the size of the collimation. Our results suggest that the stepwise collimation method in full spine radiography can effectively reduce the patient dose and the radiation-induced secondary cancer risk.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

Using random forest for the risk assessment of coal-floor water inrush in Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dekang; Wu, Qiang; Cui, Fangpeng; Xu, Hua; Zeng, Yifan; Cao, Yufei; Du, Yuanze

2018-04-01

Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications.

Optimizing ACS NSQIP modeling for evaluation of surgical quality and risk: patient risk adjustment, procedure mix adjustment, shrinkage adjustment, and surgical focus.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Zhou, Lynn; Huffman, Kristopher; Wang, Xue; Liu, Yaoming; Kraemer, Kari; Meng, Xiangju; Merkow, Ryan; Chow, Warren; Matel, Brian; Richards, Karen; Hart, Amy J; Dimick, Justin B; Hall, Bruce L

2013-08-01

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) collects detailed clinical data from participating hospitals using standardized data definitions, analyzes these data, and provides participating hospitals with reports that permit risk-adjusted comparisons with a surgical quality standard. Since its inception, the ACS NSQIP has worked to refine surgical outcomes measurements and enhance statistical methods to improve the reliability and validity of this hospital profiling. From an original focus on controlling for between-hospital differences in patient risk factors with logistic regression, ACS NSQIP has added a variable to better adjust for the complexity and risk profile of surgical procedures (procedure mix adjustment) and stabilized estimates derived from small samples by using a hierarchical model with shrinkage adjustment. New models have been developed focusing on specific surgical procedures (eg, "Procedure Targeted" models), which provide opportunities to incorporate indication and other procedure-specific variables and outcomes to improve risk adjustment. In addition, comparative benchmark reports given to participating hospitals have been expanded considerably to allow more detailed evaluations of performance. Finally, procedures have been developed to estimate surgical risk for individual patients. This article describes the development of, and justification for, these new statistical methods and reporting strategies in ACS NSQIP. Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Rapid Monitoring and Evaluation Method of Schistosomiasis Based on Spatial Information Technology.

PubMed

Wang, Yong; Zhuang, Dafang

2015-12-12

Thanks to Spatial Information Technologies (SITs) such as Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) that are being quickly developed and updated, SITs are being used more widely in the public health field. The use of SITs to study the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of Schistosoma japonicum and to assess the risk of infection provides methods for the control and prevention of schistosomiasis japonica has gradually become a hot topic in the field. The purpose of the present paper was to use RS and GIS technology to develop an efficient method of prediction and assessment of the risk of schistosomiasis japonica. We choose the Yueyang region, close to the east DongTing Lake (Hunan Province, China), as the study area, where a recent serious outbreak of schistosomiasis japonica took place. We monitored and evaluated the transmission risk of schistosomiasis japonica in the region using SITs. Water distribution data were extracted from RS images. The ground temperature, ground humidity and vegetation index were calculated based on RS images. Additionally, the density of oncomelania snails, which are the Schistosoma japonicum intermediate host, was calculated on the base of RS data and field measurements. The spatial distribution of oncomelania snails was explored using SITs in order to estimate the area surrounding the residents with transmission risk of schistosomiasis japonica. Our research result demonstrated: (1) the risk factors for the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica were closely related to the living environment of oncomelania snails. Key factors such as water distribution, ground temperature, ground humidity and vegetation index can be quickly obtained and calculated from RS images; (2) using GIS technology and a RS deduction technique along with statistical regression models, the density distribution model of oncomelania snails could be quickly built; (3) using SITs and analysis with overlaying population distribution data, the range of transmission risk of schistosomiasis japonica of the study area can be quickly monitored and evaluated. This method will help support the decision making for the control and prevention of schistosomiasis and form a valuable application using SITs for the schistosomiasis research.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease assessment and its relationship with cardiovascular risk SCORE in a healthy adult population: A cross-sectional community-based study.

PubMed

Mitu, Ovidiu; Roca, Mihai; Floria, Mariana; Petris, Antoniu Octavian; Graur, Mariana; Mitu, Florin

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship and the accuracy of SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project) risk correlated to multiple methods for determining subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a healthy population. This cross-sectional study included 120 completely asymptomatic subjects, with an age range 35-75 years, and randomly selected from the general population. The individuals were evaluated clinically and biochemical, and the SCORE risk was computed. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by various methods: carotid ultrasound for intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque detection; aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV); echocardiography - left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and aortic atheromatosis (AA); ankle-brachial index (ABI). SCORE mean value was 2.95±2.71, with 76% of subjects having SCORE <5. Sixty-four percent of all subjects have had increased subclinical CVD changes, and SCORE risk score was correlated positively with all markers, except for ABI. In the multivariate analysis, increased cIMT and aPWV were significantly associated with high value of SCORE risk (OR 4.14, 95% CI: 1.42-12.15, p=0.009; respectively OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.01-1.96, p=0.039). A positive linear relationship was observed between 3 territories of subclinical CVD (cIMT, LVMI, aPWV) and SCORE risk (p<0.0001). There was evidence of subclinical CVD in 60% of subjects with a SCORE value <5. As most subjects with a SCORE value <5 have subclinical CVD abnormalities, a more tailored subclinical CVD primary prevention program should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Using alternative or direct anthropometric measurements to assess risk for malnutrition in nursing homes.

PubMed

Lorini, Chiara; Collini, Francesca; Castagnoli, Mariangela; Di Bari, Mauro; Cavallini, Maria Chiara; Zaffarana, Nicoletta; Pepe, Pasquale; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Vannacci, Alfredo; Bonaccorsi, Guglielmo

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to use the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) to assess the applicability of alternative versus direct anthropometric measurements for evaluating the risk for malnutrition in older individuals living in nursing homes (NHs). We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 67 NHs in Tuscany, Italy. We measured the weight, standing height (SH), knee height (KH), ulna length (UL), and middle-upper-arm circumference of 641 NH residents. Correlations between the different methods for calculating body mass index (BMI; using direct or alternative measurements) were evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman method; agreement in the allocation of participants to the same risk category was assessed by squared weighted kappa statistic and indicators of internal relative validity. The intraclass correlation coefficient for BMI calculated using KH was 0.839 (0.815-0.861), whereas those calculated by UL were 0.890 (0.872-0.905). The limits of agreement were ±6.13 kg/m(2) using KH and ±4.66 kg/m(2) using UL. For BMI calculated using SH, 79.9% of the patients were at low risk, 8.1% at medium risk, and 12.2% at high risk for malnutrition. The agreement between this classification and that obtained using BMI calculated by alternative measurements was "fair-good." When it is not possible to determine risk category by using SH, we suggest using the alternative measurements (primarily UL, due to its highest sensitivity) to predict the height and to compare these evaluations with those obtained by using middle-upper-arm-circumference to predict the BMI. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Lo, Joan C; Chandra, Malini; Ettinger, Bruce

2011-01-01

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

Physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Low, Sok Teng; Balaraman, Thirumalaya

2017-07-01

[Purpose] To find the physical activity level and fall risk among the community-dwelling Malaysian older adults and determine the correlation between them. [Subjects and Methods] A cross-sectional study was conducted in which, the physical activity level was evaluated using the Rapid Assessment of Physical Activity questionnaire and fall risk with Fall Risk Assessment Tool. Subjects recruited were 132 community-dwelling Malaysian older adults using the convenience sampling method. [Results] The majority of the participants were under the category of under-active regular light-activities and most of them reported low fall risk. The statistical analysis using Fisher's exact test did not show a significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk. [Conclusion] The majority of community-dwelling Malaysian older adults are performing some form of physical activity and in low fall risk category. But this study did not find any significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia.

Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Chen

IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Benzene in Petroleum Refinery Environments

PubMed Central

Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

2015-01-01

The health risk resulting from benzene exposure in petroleum refineries was calculated using data from the scientific literature from various countries throughout the world. The exposure data was collated into four scenarios from petroleum refinery environments and plotted as cumulative probability distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. Benzene levels were estimated to pose a significant risk with HQ50 > 1 and HQ95 > 1 for workers exposed to benzene as base estimates for petroleum refinery workers (Scenario 1), petroleum refinery workers evaluated with personal samplers in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 2B) and evaluated using air inside petroleum refineries in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 3B). HQ50 < 1 were calculated for petroleum refinery workers with personal samplers in Italian refineries (Scenario 2A), air inside petroleum refineries (Scenario 3A) and air outside petroleum refineries (Scenario 4) in India and Taiwan indicating little possible adverse health effects. Also, HQ95 was < 1 for Scenario 4 however potential risk was evaluated for Scenarios 2A and 3A with HQ95 > 1. The excess Cancer risk (CR) for lifetime exposure to benzene for all the scenarios was evaluated using the Slope Factor and Overall Risk Probability (ORP) methods. The result suggests a potential cancer risk for exposure to benzene in all the scenarios. However, there is a higher cancer risk at 95% (CEXP95) for petroleum refinery workers (2B) with a CR of 48,000 per 106 and exposure to benzene in air inside petroleum refineries (3B) with a CR of 28,000 per 106. PMID:25588154

SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

PubMed Central

German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

Evaluation of dysphagia risk, nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly patients with Alzheimer's

PubMed Central

Goes, Vanessa Fernanda; Mello-Carpes, Pâmela Billig; de Oliveira, Lilian Oliveira; Hack, Jaqueline; Magro, Marcela; Bonini, Juliana Sartori

2014-01-01

Objective to evaluate the risk of dysphagia and its relationship with the stage of Alzheimer's Disease, as well as the relationship between the risk of dysphagia and nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly people with Alzheimer's disease. Methods the sample consisted of 30 subjects of both genders with probable Alzheimer's disease. The stage of the disease, nutritional status, energy intake, and risk of dysphagia were assessed. Results it was found that increased risk of dysphagia is associated with the advance in the stages of Alzheimer's disease and that even patients in the early stages of disease have a slight risk of developing dysphagia. No association was found between nutritional status and the risk of dysphagia. High levels of inadequate intake of micronutrients were also verified in the patients. Conclusion an association between dysphagia and the development of Alzheimer's disease was found. The results indicate the need to monitor the presence of dysphagia and the micronutrient intake in patients with Alzheimer's disease. PMID:26107841

Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

2006-06-01

An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The formal model generates only "snap shots" and considers neither the socio-cultural nor the historical context of risk perception, since it is a highly individualistic and non-contextual approach.

Missing in space: an evaluation of imputation methods for missing data in spatial analysis of risk factors for type II diabetes.

PubMed

Baker, Jannah; White, Nicole; Mengersen, Kerrie

2014-11-20

Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.

a New Method for Fmeca Based on Fuzzy Theory and Expert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byeon, Yoong-Tae; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jin-O.

2008-10-01

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectively. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering in deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

Applying a Mixed-Methods Evaluation to Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities

PubMed Central

Brownson, Ross C.; Kemner, Allison L.; Brennan, Laura K.

2016-01-01

From 2008 to 2014, the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities (HKHC) national program funded 49 communities across the United States and Puerto Rico to implement healthy eating and active living policy, system, and environmental changes to support healthier communities for children and families, with special emphasis on reaching children at highest risk for obesity on the basis of race, ethnicity, income, or geographic location. Evaluators designed a mixed-methods evaluation to capture the complexity of the HKHC projects, understand implementation, and document perceived and actual impacts of these efforts. PMID:25828217

Regression discontinuity design in criminal justice evaluation: an introduction and illustration.

PubMed

Rhodes, William; Jalbert, Sarah Kuck

2013-01-01

Corrections agencies frequently place offenders into risk categories, within which offenders receive different levels of supervision and programming. This supervision strategy is seldom evaluated but often can be through routine use of a regression discontinuity design (RDD). This article argues that RDD provides a rigorous and cost-effective method for correctional agencies to evaluate and improve supervision strategies and advocates for using RDD routinely in corrections administration. The objective is to better employ correctional resources. This article uses a Neyman-Pearson counterfactual framework to introduce readers to RDD, to provide intuition for why RDD should be used broadly, and to motivate a deeper reading into the methodology. The article also illustrates an application of RDD to evaluate an intensive supervision program for probationers. Application of the RDD, which requires basic knowledge of regressions and some special diagnostic tools, is within the competencies of many criminal justice evaluators. RDD is shown to be an effective strategy to identify the treatment effect in a community corrections agency using supervision that meets the necessary conditions for RDD. The article concludes with a critical review of how RDD compares to experimental methods to answer policy questions. The article recommends using RDD to evaluate whether differing levels of control and correction reduce criminal recidivism. It also advocates for routine use of RDD as an administrative tool to determine cut points used to assign offenders into different risk categories based on the offenders' risk scores.

Assessing Risk/Benefit for Trials Using Preclinical Evidence: A Proposal

PubMed Central

Kimmelman, Jonathan; Henderson, Valerie C.

2015-01-01

Abstract Moral evaluation of risk/benefit in early phase studies requires assessing the clinical promise of a candidate intervention using preclinical evidence. Yet there is little to guide ethics committees, investigators, sponsors or other stakeholders morally charged with making these assessments (“evaluators”). In what follows, we draw on published guidelines for preclinical study design to develop a structured process for assessing the clinical promise of new interventions. In the first step, evaluators gather all relevant preclinical studies, assess the magnitude of treatment effects, and determine clinical promise in light of various threats to valid clinical inference. In the second step, evaluators adjust assessments of clinical promise from preclinical studies by examining how other agents in the same reference class-and supported by similar evidence- have fared in clinical development. Assessments of clinical promise can then be fed into moral evaluation of risk and benefit in early phase trials. Though our approach has limitations, it offers a systematic and transparent method for assessing risk/benefit in early phase trials of novel interventions. PMID:26463620

Modeling trade-offs between plant fiber and toxins: a framework for quantifying risks perceived by foraging herbivores.

PubMed

Camp, Meghan J; Shipley, Lisa A; Johnson, Timothy R; Forbey, Jennifer Sorensen; Rachlow, Janet L; Crowell, Miranda M

2015-12-01

When selecting habitats, herbivores must weigh multiple risks, such as predation, starvation, toxicity, and thermal stress, forcing them to make fitness trade-offs. Here, we applied the method of paired comparisons (PC) to investigate how herbivores make trade-offs between habitat features that influence selection of food patches. The method of PC measures utility and the inverse of utility, relative risk, and makes trade-offs and indifferences explicit by forcing animals to make choices between two patches with different types of risks. Using a series of paired-choice experiments to titrate the equivalence curve and find the marginal rate of substitution for one risk over the other, we evaluated how toxin-tolerant (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis) and fiber-tolerant (mountain cottontail rabbit Sylviagus nuttallii) herbivores differed in their hypothesized perceived risk of fiber and toxins in food. Pygmy rabbits were willing to consume nearly five times more of the toxin 1,8-cineole in their diets to avoid consuming higher levels of fiber than were mountain cottontails. Fiber posed a greater relative risk for pygmy rabbits than cottontails and cineole a greater risk for cottontails than pygmy rabbits. Our flexible modeling approach can be used to (1) quantify how animals evaluate and trade off multiple habitat attributes when the benefits and risks are difficult to quantify, and (2) integrate diverse risks that influence fitness and habitat selection into a single index of habitat value. This index potentially could be applied to landscapes to predict habitat selection across several scales.

Obstetric profile of pregnant adolescents in a public hospital: risk at beginning of labor, at delivery, postpartum, and in puerperium1

PubMed Central

Martínez, Hugo Tapia; Silva, Marta Angélica Iossi; Cabrera, Iñiga Pérez; Mendoza, Araceli Jiménez

2015-01-01

Objective: describe the obstetric profile of adolescents at beginning of labor, at delivery, postpartum, and in puerperium. Method: Cross-sectional descriptive study with 85 pregnant adolescents, selected by convenience, referred by health centers to a public hospital in Mexico City. Risks were evaluated before, during and after delivery and in puerperium, and measured respectively with the "Previgenes" that compose the Reproductive and Perinatal Risk Assessment System. Results: socioeconomic status, occupation and education level had influence on the emotionality of adolescents in relation to labor, whose obstetric risk was low for 55%, medium for 35%, and high for 10%. Risk in labor was low for 55%, medium for 18%, and high for 27%. Risk postpartum was low for 50%, medium for 25%, and high for 25%. In puerperium, most adolescents (90%) had low risk. Conclusion: most adolescents had low risk in the stages evaluated. The study contributed to identify strategies to approach risk considering the vulnerability inherent in this type of population and favored the conduct of appropriate interventions for the respective needs. PMID:26487132

Efficacy of ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk landing patterns during a sport-specific task.

PubMed

Fox, A S; Bonacci, J; McLean, S G; Saunders, N

2017-05-01

Screening methods sensitive to movement strategies that increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) loads are likely to be effective in identifying athletes at-risk of ACL injury. Current ACL injury risk screening methods are yet to be evaluated for their ability to identify athletes' who exhibit high-risk lower limb mechanics during sport-specific maneuvers associated with ACL injury occurrences. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of two ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk lower limb mechanics during a sport-specific landing task. Thirty-two female athletes were screened using the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) and Tuck Jump Assessment. Participants' also completed a sport-specific landing task, during which three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data were collected. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was used to examine the relationships between screening method scores, and the three-dimensional hip and knee joint rotation and moment data from the sport-specific landing. Higher LESS scores were associated with reduced knee flexion from 30 to 57 ms after initial contact (P = 0.003) during the sport-specific landing; however, no additional relationships were found. These findings suggest the LESS and Tuck Jump Assessment may have minimal applicability in identifying athletes' who exhibit high-risk landing postures in the sport-specific task examined. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does classroom-based Crew Resource Management training improve patient safety culture? A systematic review

PubMed Central

de Bruijne, Martine C; Zwijnenberg, Nicolien C; Jansma, Elise P; van Dyck, Cathy; Wagner, Cordula

2014-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the evidence of the effectiveness of classroom-based Crew Resource Management training on safety culture by a systematic review of literature. Methods: Studies were identified in PubMed, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, and Educational Resources Information Center up to 19 December 2012. The Methods Guide for Comparative Effectiveness Reviews was used to assess the risk of bias in the individual studies. Results: In total, 22 manuscripts were included for review. Training settings, study designs, and evaluation methods varied widely. Most studies reporting only a selection of culture dimensions found mainly positive results, whereas studies reporting all safety culture dimensions of the particular survey found mixed results. On average, studies were at moderate risk of bias. Conclusion: Evidence of the effectiveness of Crew Resource Management training in health care on safety culture is scarce and the validity of most studies is limited. The results underline the necessity of more valid study designs, preferably using triangulation methods. PMID:26770720

How to determine an optimal threshold to classify real-time crash-prone traffic conditions?

PubMed

Yang, Kui; Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Quddus, Mohammed; Xue, Lifang

2018-08-01

One of the proactive approaches in reducing traffic crashes is to identify hazardous traffic conditions that may lead to a traffic crash, known as real-time crash prediction. Threshold selection is one of the essential steps of real-time crash prediction. And it provides the cut-off point for the posterior probability which is used to separate potential crash warnings against normal traffic conditions, after the outcome of the probability of a crash occurring given a specific traffic condition on the basis of crash risk evaluation models. There is however a dearth of research that focuses on how to effectively determine an optimal threshold. And only when discussing the predictive performance of the models, a few studies utilized subjective methods to choose the threshold. The subjective methods cannot automatically identify the optimal thresholds in different traffic and weather conditions in real application. Thus, a theoretical method to select the threshold value is necessary for the sake of avoiding subjective judgments. The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical method for automatically identifying the optimal threshold. Considering the random effects of variable factors across all roadway segments, the mixed logit model was utilized to develop the crash risk evaluation model and further evaluate the crash risk. Cross-entropy, between-class variance and other theories were employed and investigated to empirically identify the optimal threshold. And K-fold cross-validation was used to validate the performance of proposed threshold selection methods with the help of several evaluation criteria. The results indicate that (i) the mixed logit model can obtain a good performance; (ii) the classification performance of the threshold selected by the minimum cross-entropy method outperforms the other methods according to the criteria. This method can be well-behaved to automatically identify thresholds in crash prediction, by minimizing the cross entropy between the original dataset with continuous probability of a crash occurring and the binarized dataset after using the thresholds to separate potential crash warnings against normal traffic conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

A Method of Evaluating Operation of Electric Energy Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangqun; Li, Tianyang; Cao, Fei; Chu, Pengfei; Zhao, Xinwang; Huang, Rui; Liu, Liping; Zhang, Chenglin

2018-05-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

Evaluation of the impact of the revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Lifting Equation

PubMed Central

Lu, Ming-Lun; Putz-Anderson, Vern; Garg, Arun; Davis, Kermit

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate the impact of the revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health lifting equation (RNLE). Background The RNLE has been used extensively as a risk assessment method for prevention of low back pain (LBP). However, the impact of the RNLE has not been documented. Methods A systematic review of the literature on the RNLE was conducted. The review consisted of three parts: characterization of the RNLE publications; assessment of the impact of the RNLE; and evaluation of the influences of the RNLE on ergonomic standards. The literature for assessing the impact was categorized into four research areas: methodology, laboratory, field and risk assessment studies using the Lifting Index (LI) or Composite LI (CLI), both of which are the products of the RNLE. Results The impact of the RNLE has been both widespread and influential. We found 24 studies that examined the criteria used to define lifting capacity used by the RNLE, 28 studies that compared risk assessment methods for identifying LBP, 23 studies that found the RNLE useful in identifying the risk of LBP with different work populations, and 13 studies on the relationship between LI/CLI and LBP outcomes. We also found evidence on the adoption of the RNLE as an ergonomic standard for use by various local, state, and international entities. Conclusion The review found 13 studies that link LI/CLI to adverse LBP outcomes. These studies showed a positive relationship between LI/CLI metrics and the severity of LBP outcomes. PMID:26822795

Dietary intake of acrylamide and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort

PubMed Central

Obón-Santacana, M; Kaaks, R; Slimani, N; Lujan-Barroso, L; Freisling, H; Ferrari, P; Dossus, L; Chabbert-Buffet, N; Baglietto, L; Fortner, R T; Boeing, H; Tjønneland, A; Olsen, A; Overvad, K; Menéndez, V; Molina-Montes, E; Larrañaga, N; Chirlaque, M-D; Ardanaz, E; Khaw, K-T; Wareham, N; Travis, R C; Lu, Y; Merritt, M A; Trichopoulou, A; Benetou, V; Trichopoulos, D; Saieva, C; Sieri, S; Tumino, R; Sacerdote, C; Galasso, R; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B; Wirfält, E; Ericson, U; Idahl, A; Ohlson, N; Skeie, G; Gram, I T; Weiderpass, E; Onland-Moret, N C; Riboli, E; Duell, E J

2014-01-01

Background: Three prospective studies have evaluated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and endometrial cancer (EC) risk with inconsistent results. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk: for overall EC, for type-I EC, and in never smokers and never users of oral contraceptives (OCs). Smoking is a source of acrylamide, and OC use is a protective factor for EC risk. Methods: Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Acrylamide intake was estimated from the EU acrylamide monitoring database, which was matched with EPIC questionnaire-based food consumption data. Acrylamide intake was energy adjusted using the residual method. Results: No associations were observed between acrylamide intake and overall EC (n=1382) or type-I EC risk (n=627). We observed increasing relative risks for type-I EC with increasing acrylamide intake among women who both never smoked and were non-users of OCs (HRQ5vsQ1: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.08–3.62; likelihood ratio test (LRT) P-value: 0.01, n=203). Conclusions: Dietary intake of acrylamide was not associated with overall or type-I EC risk; however, positive associations with type I were observed in women who were both non-users of OCs and never smokers. PMID:24937665

Pretest probability estimation in the evaluation of patients with possible deep vein thrombosis.

PubMed

Vinson, David R; Patel, Jason P; Irving, Cedric S

2011-07-01

An estimation of pretest probability is integral to the proper interpretation of a negative compression ultrasound in the diagnostic assessment of lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis. We sought to determine the rate, method, and predictors of pretest probability estimation in such patients. This cross-sectional study of outpatients was conducted in a suburban community hospital in 2006. Estimation of pretest probability was done by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay d-dimer, Wells criteria, and unstructured clinical impression. Using logistic regression analysis, we measured predictors of documented risk assessment. A cohort analysis was undertaken to compare 3-month thromboembolic outcomes between risk groups. Among 524 cases, 289 (55.2%) underwent pretest probability estimation using the following methods: enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay d-dimer (228; 43.5%), clinical impression (106; 20.2%), and Wells criteria (24; 4.6%), with 69 (13.2%) patients undergoing a combination of at least two methods. Patient factors were not predictive of pretest probability estimation, but the specialty of the clinician was predictive; emergency physicians (P < .0001) and specialty clinicians (P = .001) were less likely than primary care clinicians to perform risk assessment. Thromboembolic events within 3 months were experienced by 0 of 52 patients in the explicitly low-risk group, 4 (1.8%) of 219 in the explicitly moderate- to high-risk group, and 1 (0.4%) of 226 in the group that did not undergo explicit risk assessment. Negative ultrasounds in the workup of deep vein thrombosis are commonly interpreted in isolation apart from pretest probability estimations. Risk assessments varied by physician specialties. Opportunities exist for improvement in the diagnostic evaluation of these patients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research on big data risk assessment of major transformer defects and faults fusing power grid, equipment and environment based on SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lijuan; Yan, Haijun; Gao, Wensheng; Chen, Yun; Hao, Yongqi

2018-01-01

With the development of power big data, considering the wider power system data, the appropriate large data analysis method can be used to mine the potential law and value of power big data. On the basis of considering all kinds of monitoring data and defects and fault records of main transformer, the paper integrates the power grid, equipment as well as environment data and uses SVM as the main algorithm to evaluate the risk of the main transformer. It gets and compares the evaluation results under different modes, and proves that the risk assessment algorithms and schemes have certain effectiveness. This paper provides a new idea for data fusion of smart grid, and provides a reference for further big data evaluation of power grid equipment.

Effects and Risk Evaluation of Oil Spillage in the Sea Areas of Changxing Island

PubMed Central

Wang, Hanxi; Xu, Jianling; Zhao, Wenkui; Zhang, Jiquan

2014-01-01

This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China) based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind) were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing), the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes. PMID:25153473

Disaster Risk Reduction in Myanmar: A Need for Focus on Community Preparedness and Improved Evaluation of Initiatives.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew D; Chan, Emily Y Y

2017-11-20

Myanmar is a country in political and economic transition. Facing a wide-variety of natural hazards and ongoing conflict, the country's under-developed infrastructure has resulted in high disaster risk. Following the devastation of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and increased global focus on disaster management and risk reduction, Myanmar has begun development of national disaster policies. Myanmar's Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction addressed multiple stages of disaster development and has made progress towards national projects, however, has struggled to implement community-based preparedness and response initiatives. This article analyses Myanmar's disaster strategy, though the use of a disaster development framework and suggests areas for possible improvement. In particular, the article aims to generate discussion regarding methods of supporting objective evaluation of risk reduction initiatives in developing countries. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 5).

A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

2005-08-01

Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

[Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

PubMed

Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

2018-05-01

The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

Evaluation of dysphagia in early stroke patients by bedside, endoscopic, and electrophysiological methods.

PubMed

Umay, Ebru Karaca; Unlu, Ece; Saylam, Guleser Kılıc; Cakci, Aytul; Korkmaz, Hakan

2013-09-01

We aimed in this study to evaluate dysphagia in early stroke patients using a bedside screening test and flexible fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FFEES) and electrophysiological evaluation (EE) methods and to compare the effectiveness of these methods. Twenty-four patients who were hospitalized in our clinic within the first 3 months after stroke were included in this study. Patients were evaluated using a bedside screening test [including bedside dysphagia score (BDS), neurological examination dysphagia score (NEDS), and total dysphagia score (TDS)] and FFEES and EE methods. Patients were divided into normal-swallowing and dysphagia groups according to the results of the evaluation methods. Patients with dysphagia as determined by any of these methods were compared to the patients with normal swallowing based on the results of the other two methods. Based on the results of our study, a high BDS was positively correlated with dysphagia identified by FFEES and EE methods. Moreover, the FFEES and EE methods were positively correlated. There was no significant correlation between NEDS and TDS levels and either EE or FFEES method. Bedside screening tests should be used mainly as an initial screening test; then FFEES and EE methods should be combined in patients who show risks. This diagnostic algorithm may provide a practical and fast solution for selected stroke patients.

Diet and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Evaluation of a Nutrition Education Leaflet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyer, K. J.; Fearon, K. C. H.; Buckner, K.; Richardson, R. A.

2005-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the effect of a needs-based, nutrition education leaflet on nutritional knowledge. Design: Comparison of nutritional knowledge levels before and after exposure to a nutrition education leaflet. Setting: A regional colorectal out-patient clinic in Edinburgh. Method: A nutrition education leaflet, based on an earlier…

Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

2018-06-01

China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

Clinical evaluation of a Mucorales-specific real-time PCR assay in tissue and serum samples.

PubMed

Springer, Jan; Lackner, Michaela; Ensinger, Christian; Risslegger, Brigitte; Morton, Charles Oliver; Nachbaur, David; Lass-Flörl, Cornelia; Einsele, Hermann; Heinz, Werner J; Loeffler, Juergen

2016-12-01

Molecular diagnostic assays can accelerate the diagnosis of fungal infections and subsequently improve patient outcomes. In particular, the detection of infections due to Mucorales is still challenging for laboratories and physicians. The aim of this study was to evaluate a probe-based Mucorales-specific real-time PCR assay (Muc18S) using tissue and serum samples from patients suffering from invasive mucormycosis (IMM). This assay can detect a broad range of clinically relevant Mucorales species and can be used to complement existing diagnostic tests or to screen high-risk patients. An advantage of the Muc18S assay is that it exclusively detects Mucorales species allowing the diagnosis of Mucorales DNA without sequencing within a few hours. In paraffin-embedded tissue samples this PCR-based method allowed rapid identification of Mucorales in comparison with standard methods and showed 91 % sensitivity in the IMM tissue samples. We also evaluated serum samples, an easily accessible material, from patients at risk from IMM. Mucorales DNA was detected in all patients with probable/proven IMM (100 %) and in 29 % of the possible cases. Detection of IMM in serum could enable an earlier diagnosis (up to 21 days) than current methods including tissue samples, which were gained mainly post-mortem. A screening strategy for high-risk patients, which would enable targeted treatment to improve patient outcomes, is therefore possible.

[Use of blood lead data to evaluate and prevent childhood lead poisoning in Latin America].

PubMed

Romieu, Isabelle

2003-01-01

Exposure to lead is a widespread and serious threat to the health of children in Latin America. Health officials should monitor sources of exposure and health outcomes to design, implement, and evaluate prevention and control activities. To evaluate the magnitude of lead as a public health problem, three key elements must be defined: I) the potential sources of exposure, 2) the indicators to evaluate health effects and environmental exposure, and 3) the sampling methods for the population at risk. Several strategies can be used to select the study population depending on the study objectives, the time limitations, and the available resources. If the objective is to evaluate the magnitude and sources of the problem, the following sampling methods can be used: I) population-based random sampling; 2) facility-based random sampling within hospitals, daycare centers, or schools; 3) target sampling of high risk groups; 4) convenience sampling of volunteers; and 5) case reporting (which can lead to the identification of populations at risk and sources of exposures). For all sampling methods, information gathering should include the use of a questionnaire to collect general information on the participants and on potential local sources of exposure, as well as the collection of biological samples. In interpreting data, one should consider the type of sampling used and the non-response rates, as well as factors that might influence blood lead measurements, such as age and seasonal variability. Blood lead measurements should be integrated in an overall strategy to prevent lead toxicity in children. The English version of this paper is available at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 7. Performance Evaluation of the 600-GPH Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU): reverse Osmosis (RO) Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

Data-for ASsessingHealthRISKS In Potential Theaters ~ of Operation forU,5. Mil-itary._orces. Jf-jr cLAss t:cAToN 9; r-.$ ’AGg UNCLASSIFIED Volume 7...Bypass, Potable-Water Disinfection,_ and Water-Quality Analysis Techniques; and Vol. 9, Data for Assessing Health Risks in Potential Theaters of Operation ...cleaning the RO elements, with objectives of improving solute rejection and reducing operating pressure. The most common method is to flush citric acid

Application of a hazard and operability study method to hazard evaluation of a chemical unit of the power station.

PubMed

Habibi, E; Zare, M; Barkhordari, A; Mirmohammadi, Sj; Halvani, Ghh

2008-12-28

The aim of this study was to identify the hazards, evaluate their risk factors and determine the measure for promotion of the process and reduction of accidents in the chemical unit of the power station. In this case and qualitative study, HAZOP technique was used to recognize the hazards and problems of operations on the chemical section at power station. Totally, 126 deviations were documented with various causes and consequences. Ranking and evaluation of identified risks indicate that the majority of deviations were categorized as "acceptable" and less than half of that were "unacceptable". The highest calculated risk level (1B) related to both the interruption of acid entry to the discharge pumps and an increased density of the acid. About 27% of the deviations had the lowest risk level (4B). The identification of hazards by HAZOP indicates that it could, systemically, assess and criticize the process of consumption or production of acid and alkali in the chemical unit of power plant.

Reading between the Lines: Implicit Assessment of the Association of Parental Attributions and Empathy with Abuse Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Christina M.; Cook, Anne E.; Jedrziewski, Chezlie T.

2012-01-01

Objective: Researchers in the child maltreatment field have traditionally relied on explicit self-reports to study factors that may exacerbate physical child abuse risk. The current investigation evaluated an implicit analog task utilizing eye tracking technology to assess both parental attributions of child misbehavior and empathy. Method: Based…

An Environmentally Friendly, Cost-Effective Determination of Lead in Environmental Samples Using Anodic Stripping Voltammetry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldcamp, Michael J.; Underwood, Melinda N.; Cloud, Joshua L.; Harshman, Sean

2008-01-01

Contamination of the environment with heavy metals such as lead presents many health risks. Simple, effective, and field-portable methods for the measurement of toxic metals in environmental samples are vital tools for evaluating the risks that these contaminants pose. This article describes the use of new developments in anodic stripping…

Proof of concept for the use of macroinvertebrates as indicators of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) contamination in Lake Hartwell

Treesearch

James M. Lazorchak; Michael B. Griffith; Marc Mills; Joseph Schubauer-Berigan; Frank McCormick; Richard Brenner; Craig Zeller

2015-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) develops methods and tools for evaluating risk management strategies for sediments contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and other legacy pollutants. Monitored natural recovery is a risk management alternative that relies on existing physical, chemical, and biological...

Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

2015-01-01

Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karatas, Ozgur

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

An overview of the refinements and improvements to the USEPA’s sediment toxicity methods for freshwater sediment

EPA Science Inventory

Sediment toxicity tests are used for contaminated sediments, chemical registration, and water quality criteria evaluations and can be a core component of ecological risk assessments at contaminated sediments sites. Standard methods for conducting sediment toxicity tests have been...

Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

PubMed

Li, Yan

2017-05-25

The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

Scaling sexual behavior or "sexual risk propensity" among men at risk for HIV in Kisumu, Kenya.

PubMed

Mattson, C L; Campbell, Richard T; Karabatsos, George; Agot, Kawango; Ndinya-Achola, J O; Moses, Stephen; Bailey, Robert C

2010-02-01

We present a scale to measure sexual risk behavior or "sexual risk propensity" to evaluate risk compensation among men engaged in a randomized clinical trial of male circumcision. This statistical approach can be used to represent each respondent's level of sexual risk behavior as the sum of his responses on multiple dichotomous and rating scale (i.e. ordinal) items. This summary "score" can be used to summarize information on many sexual behaviors or to evaluate changes in sexual behavior with respect to an intervention. Our 18 item scale demonstrated very good reliability (Cronbach's alpha of 0.87) and produced a logical, unidimensional continuum to represent sexual risk behavior. We found no evidence of differential item function at different time points (except for reporting a concurrent partners when comparing 6 and 12 month follow-up visits) or with respect to the language with which the instrument was administered. Further, we established criterion validity by demonstrating a statistically significant association between the risk scale and the acquisition of incident sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at the 6 month follow-up and HIV at the 12 month follow-up visits. This method has broad applicability to evaluate sexual risk behavior in the context of other HIV and STI prevention interventions (e.g. microbicide or vaccine trials), or in response to treatment provision (e.g., anti-retroviral therapy).

Comparison of three methods for evaluation of work postures in a truck assembly plant.

PubMed

Zare, Mohsen; Biau, Sophie; Brunet, Rene; Roquelaure, Yves

2017-11-01

This study compared the results of three risk assessment tools (self-reported questionnaire, observational tool, direct measurement method) for the upper limbs and back in a truck assembly plant at two cycle times (11 and 8 min). The weighted Kappa factor showed fair agreement between the observational and direct measurement method for the arm (0.39) and back (0.47). The weighted Kappa factor for these methods was poor for the neck (0) and wrist (0) but the observed proportional agreement (P o ) was 0.78 for the neck and 0.83 for the wrist. The weighted Kappa factor between questionnaire and direct measurement showed poor or slight agreement (0) for different body segments in both cycle times. The results revealed moderate agreement between the observational tool and the direct measurement method, and poor agreement between the self-reported questionnaire and direct measurement. Practitioner Summary: This study provides risk exposure measurement by different common ergonomic methods in the field. The results help to develop valid measurements and improve exposure evaluation. Hence, the ergonomist/practitioners should apply the methods with caution, or at least knowing what the issues/errors are.

Cardiovascular evaluation of middle-aged/ senior individuals engaged in leisure-time sport activities: position stand from the sections of exercise physiology and sports cardiology of the European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation.

PubMed

Borjesson, Mats; Urhausen, Alex; Kouidi, Evangelia; Dugmore, Dorian; Sharma, Sanjay; Halle, Martin; Heidbüchel, Hein; Björnstad, Hans Halvor; Gielen, Stephan; Mezzani, Alessandro; Corrado, Domenico; Pelliccia, Antonio; Vanhees, Luc

2011-06-01

Regular aerobic exercise at moderate intensities and an increased physical fitness are associated with a reduced risk of fatal and nonfatal coronary events in middle-aged individuals. In contrast, moderate and vigorous physical exertion is associated with an increased risk for cardiac events, including sudden cardiac death in individuals harbouring cardiovascular disease. The risk-benefit ratio may differ in relation to the individual’s age, fitness level, and presence of cardiovascular disease; sedentary individuals with underlying coronary artery disease are at greatest risk. The intention of the present position stand of the European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation is to encourage individuals to participate in regular physical activity and derive the benefits of physical exercise while minimizing the risk of cardiovascular adverse events. Therefore, the aim is to establish the most practical method of cardiovascular evaluation in middle-age/senior individuals, who are contemplating exercise or who are already engaged in nonprofessional competitive or recreational leisure sporting activity. These recommendations rely on existing scientific evidence, and in the absence of such, on expert consensus. The methodology of how middle-aged and older individuals should be evaluated appropriately before engaging in regular physical activity is both complex and controversial. On practical grounds the consensus panel recommend that such evaluation should vary according to the individual’s cardiac risk profile and the intended level of physical activity. Self assessment of the habitual physical activity level and of the risk factors, are recommended for screening of large populations. Individuals deemed to be at risk require further evaluation by a qualified physician. In senior/adult individuals with an increased risk for coronary events, maximal exercise testing (and possibly further evaluations) is advocated. Hopefully, the recommendations in this paper provide a practical solution for facilitating safe exercise prescription in senior/adults.

Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

2016-03-01

In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

[Preservation of high risk fungal cultures of Histoplasma and Cryptococcus].

PubMed

Fernández Andreu, C Carlos Manuel; Díaz Suárez, Luis Alberto; Ilnait Zaragozi, María Teresa; Aragonés López, Carlos; Martínez Machín, Gerardo; Perurena Lancha, Mayda R

2012-01-01

culture collections are responsible for providing the microbial resources for development of biological sciences. Storage in distilled water is one of the easiest and least expensive method for long-term fungal preservation. to evaluate the usefulness of this preservation method in fungal culture of Histoplasma and Cryptococcus. the preservation condition of the highest biological risk species from Histoplasma y Cryptococcus genera, included in the fungal culture collection of "Pedro Kouri" Institute of Tropical Medicine in Havana, was evaluated in this study. One hundred and two strains stored in distilled water, 92% of which had been preserved for more than 10 years, were analyzed. the percentages of recovered strains from H. capsulatum, C. neoformans and C. gattii were 64.3%; 79.1% and 100% respectively. This method of preservation proved to be satisfactory for fungal culture in labs with limited financial resources. A web-based database with interesting information about the collection was made. The importance of strict compliance with the biosafety measures in these collections, particularly with high risk pathogens. preservation of fungal cultures in distilled water is a very useful method for laboratories with limited resources. Culture collections should be assumed as an essential activity in order to solve increasing challenges in the development of biomedical sciences.

[Economic effects of integrated RIS-PACS solution in the university environment].

PubMed

Kröger, M; Nissen-Meyer, S; Wetekam, V; Reiser, M

1999-04-01

The goal of the current article is to demonstrate how qualitative and monetary effects resulting from an integrated RIS/PACS installation can be evaluated. First of all, the system concept of a RIS/PACS solution for a university hospital is defined and described. Based on this example, a generic method for the evaluation of qualitative and monetary effects as well as associated risks is depicted and demonstrated. To this end, qualitative analyses, investment calculations and risk analysis are employed. The sample analysis of a RIS/PACS solution specially designed for a university hospital demonstrates positive qualitative and monetary effects of the system. Under ideal conditions the payoff time of the investments is reached after 4 years of an assumed 8 years effective life of the system. Furthermore, under conservative assumptions, the risk analysis shows a probability of 0% for realising a negative net present value at the end of the payoff time period. It should be pointed out that the positive result of this sample analysis will not necessarily apply to other clinics or hospitals. However, the same methods may be used for the individual evaluation of the qualitative and monetary effects of a RIS/PACS installation in any clinic.

Credit scoring analysis using weighted k nearest neighbor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukid, M. A.; Widiharih, T.; Rusgiyono, A.; Prahutama, A.

2018-05-01

Credit scoring is a quatitative method to evaluate the credit risk of loan applications. Both statistical methods and artificial intelligence are often used by credit analysts to help them decide whether the applicants are worthy of credit. These methods aim to predict future behavior in terms of credit risk based on past experience of customers with similar characteristics. This paper reviews the weighted k nearest neighbor (WKNN) method for credit assessment by considering the use of some kernels. We use credit data from a private bank in Indonesia. The result shows that the Gaussian kernel and rectangular kernel have a better performance based on the value of percentage corrected classified whose value is 82.4% respectively.

Falling Down on the Job: Evaluation and Treatment of Fall Risk Among Older Adults With Upper Extremity Fragility Fractures

PubMed Central

Colla, Carrie H.; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N. A.; Tosteson, Tor D.; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V.; Lurie, Jonathan D.; Bynum, Julie P. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Design: Observational cohort. Methods: Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna (“wrist”) fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007–2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. Results: There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Limitations: Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. Conclusions: A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. PMID:28340130

Integrating Phylodynamics and Epidemiology to Estimate Transmission Diversity in Viral Epidemics

PubMed Central

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Sypsa, Vana; Magiorkinis, Emmanouil; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Katsoulidou, Antigoni; Belshaw, Robert; Fraser, Christophe; Pybus, Oliver George; Hatzakis, Angelos

2013-01-01

The epidemiology of chronic viral infections, such as those caused by Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), is affected by the risk group structure of the infected population. Risk groups are defined by each of their members having acquired infection through a specific behavior. However, risk group definitions say little about the transmission potential of each infected individual. Variation in the number of secondary infections is extremely difficult to estimate for HCV and HIV but crucial in the design of efficient control interventions. Here we describe a novel method that combines epidemiological and population genetic approaches to estimate the variation in transmissibility of rapidly-evolving viral epidemics. We evaluate this method using a nationwide HCV epidemic and for the first time co-estimate viral generation times and superspreading events from a combination of molecular and epidemiological data. We anticipate that this integrated approach will form the basis of powerful tools for describing the transmission dynamics of chronic viral diseases, and for evaluating control strategies directed against them. PMID:23382662

Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban-rural gradient.

PubMed

Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

2013-03-01

We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban-rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI(RDS) was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI(RDS). These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban-rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

PubMed

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

Evaluating life-safety risk of fieldwork at New Zealand's active volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, Natalia; Jolly, Gill; Taig, Tony; Webb, Terry

2014-05-01

Volcano observatories monitor active or potentially active volcanoes. Although the number and scope of remote monitoring instruments and methods continues to grow, in-person field data collection is still required for comprehensive monitoring. Fieldwork anywhere, and especially in mountainous areas, contains an element of risk. However, on volcanoes with signs of unrest, there is an additional risk of volcanic activity escalating while on site, with potentially lethal consequences. As an employer, a volcano observatory is morally and sometimes legally obligated to take reasonable measures to ensure staff safety and to minimise occupational risk. Here we present how GNS Science evaluates life-safety risk for volcanologists engaged in fieldwork on New Zealand volcanoes with signs of volcanic unrest. Our method includes several key elements: (1) an expert elicitation for how likely an eruption is within a given time frame, (2) quantification of, based on historical data when possible, given a small, moderate, or large eruption, the likelihood of exposure to near-vent processes, ballistics, or surge at various distances from the vent, and (3) estimate of fatality rate given exposure to these volcanic hazards. The final product quantifies hourly fatality risk at various distances from a volcanic vent; various thresholds of risk (for example, zones with more than 10-5 hourly fatality risk) trigger different levels of required approval to undertake work. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective guidance for go/no go decisions for volcanic monitoring.

Variable Lifting Index for Manual-Lifting Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

PubMed

Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Cortinovis, Ivan

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the new Variable Lifting Index (VLI) method, theoretically based on the Revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH] Lifting Equation (RNLE), in predicting the risk of acute low-back pain (LBP) in the past 12 months. A new risk variable termed the VLI for assessing variable manual lifting has been developed, but there has been no epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between the VLI and LBP. A sample of 3,402 study participants from 16 companies in different industrial sectors was analyzed. Of the participants, 2,374 were in the risk exposure group involving manual materials handling (MMH), and 1,028 were in the control group without MMH. The VLI was calculated for each participant in the exposure group using a systematic approach. LBP information was collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. The risk of acute LBP was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) between levels of the risk exposure and the control group using a logistic regression analysis. Both crude and adjusted ORs for body mass index, gender, and age were analyzed. Both crude and adjusted ORs showed a dose-response relationship. As the levels of VLI increased, the risk of LBP increased. This risk relationship existed when VLI was greater than 1. The VLI method can be used to assess the risk of acute LBP, although further studies are needed to confirm the outcome and to define better VLI categories. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigations regarding the evaluation of specific intellectual property production risks within Quality Management System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakocs, R.; Lupulescu, N. B.

2016-11-01

This paper is a theoretical research concerning methods for risk assessment of specific intellectual property production risks that are identified in the product achievement stage within the Quality Management System. In order to realize this, we will start by identifying the specific intellectual property production risks and by proposing some new calculating formulas for minimalizing their negative effects. The theoretical model proposed assessment of specific intellectual property production risks, will be realized based on 3 hypothetical situations. This study intends to reduce the intellectual property risks identified in the production process of commercial societies that have an industrial profile.

[Selective preimplantation pathological evaluation in renal transplantation: a single center's experience].

PubMed

Peng, F H; Chen, J J; Peng, L K; Xie, X B; Lan, G B; Yu, S J; Wang, Y; Tang, X T; Dai, H L; Gao, C; Fang, C H

2018-01-16

Objective: To summarize the clinical data of pre-implantation biopsy donors in our hospital and explore the clinical characteristics of those donors in pathological high-risk, and to provide references for the selective histological evaluation of extended criteria donor kidneys. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data and pre-implantation renal pathologic score of donors from January 1, 2015 to May 1, 2017.During this period, 247 cases of donation after citizen's death (DCD) occurred.After clinical evaluation and selective machine perfusion( Lifeport) evaluation, 30 cases of pre-implantation pathological evaluation were performed.According to Remuzzi scores, donors were divided into low-risk and high-risk group.Nine cases of low-risk group (bilateral kidney's Remuzzi score ≤3) and 16 cases of high-risk group (bilateral or unilateral kidney's Remuzzi score ≥4, severe glomerular micro-thrombi or severe tubular necrosis) were included.Five cases of donors were excluded due to only unilateral renal pathological result available.Both high-risk and low-risk groups' clinical data, including sex, age, height, body weight, body mass index, proteinuria, hematuria, urinary glucose, baseline or admission serum creatinine, serum creatinine before procurement, history of hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus, cardiopulmonary resuscitation or not, with or without the history of shock, urine output prior to acquisition, macroscopical manifestations of donor kidney, cause of death were statistically analyzed. Results: The donors' baseline serum creatinine/upper limit of normal serum creatinine range in high-risk group were significantly higher than that in low-risk group [(129.8±42.2)% vs(92.4±30.5)%, P =0.029]. The poor macroscopical manifestations of donor kidneys were significantly more frequent in high-risk group than that in low-risk group (12/16 vs 0/9, P = 0). No significant differences between two groups were found regarding their age, height, weight, BMI, proteinuria, hematuria, urine glucose, pre-procure creatinine level, history of hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus, cause of death and so on ( P >0.05). Conclusions: After clinical evaluation and selective Lifeport evaluation, donor grafts of whose baseline serum creatinine levels increased beyond normal range and of whose grafts' macroscopical manifestations were poor, should undergo pre-implantation pathological evaluation further.Also, it is reasonable to perform pre-implantation biopsy in cases of equivocal results after Lifeport evaluation.This will be beneficial to identify histological high-risk donors and also be predictive to allocate the grafts.

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

2013-11-01

Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

Identifying High-Risk Patients without Labeled Training Data: Anomaly Detection Methodologies to Predict Adverse Outcomes

PubMed Central

Syed, Zeeshan; Saeed, Mohammed; Rubinfeld, Ilan

2010-01-01

For many clinical conditions, only a small number of patients experience adverse outcomes. Developing risk stratification algorithms for these conditions typically requires collecting large volumes of data to capture enough positive and negative for training. This process is slow, expensive, and may not be appropriate for new phenomena. In this paper, we explore different anomaly detection approaches to identify high-risk patients as cases that lie in sparse regions of the feature space. We study three broad categories of anomaly detection methods: classification-based, nearest neighbor-based, and clustering-based techniques. When evaluated on data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), these methods were able to successfully identify patients at an elevated risk of mortality and rare morbidities following inpatient surgical procedures. PMID:21347083

[Assessment of cardiovascular risk in population groups. Comparison of Score system and Framingham in hypertensive patients].

PubMed

Cosín Aguilar, J; Hernándiz Martínez, A; Rodríguez Padial, L; Zamorano Gómez, J L; Arístegui Urrestarazu, R; Armada Peláez, B; Aguilar Llopis, A; Masramon Morell, X

2006-04-01

Calculation of cardiovascular risk in populations allows for developing and assessing of intervention programs and adapting health resources. While the Framingham System has been used in the past, a group of European researchers have proposed a different method called the Score project. The purpose of this paper is to compare the value of both methods for assessing cardiovascular risk. In 6,775 evaluable hypertensive patients distributed over the 17 Spanish autonomous communities (ACs), the 10-year risk of experiencing a coronary event (CR) was calculated using the Framingham equation, while risk of coronary death (RCD) and vascular death (RVD) was calculated using the Score project system, both at baseline and after one year of blood pressure control with amlodipine at the required dose. A comparison was made of the capacity to detect risk differences by both methods between populations with known different risks, and in the same population as a result of blood pressure control. Both the Score and the Framingham systems detected the significant decrease in both CR and RCD or RVD at one year of application of the CORONARIA study protocol. Risk decrease measured by any of the two methods was significant (p < 0.05) overall, by genders, and by ACs. However, the Score System, unlike the Framingham system, could not detect the reported differences in the mortality risk for coronary and vascular disease between the ACs of the North and the South-East parts of Spain.

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much needed in a rapidly changing world. This presentation will discuss these challenges and describe a few initial attempts aiming to better understand the interactions between the different components of flood risk with reference to diverse case studies in Europe, Central America, and Africa.

Evaluating the utility of two gestural discomfort evaluation methods

PubMed Central

Son, Minseok; Jung, Jaemoon; Park, Woojin

2017-01-01

Evaluating physical discomfort of designed gestures is important for creating safe and usable gesture-based interaction systems; yet, gestural discomfort evaluation has not been extensively studied in HCI, and few evaluation methods seem currently available whose utility has been experimentally confirmed. To address this, this study empirically demonstrated the utility of the subjective rating method after a small number of gesture repetitions (a maximum of four repetitions) in evaluating designed gestures in terms of physical discomfort resulting from prolonged, repetitive gesture use. The subjective rating method has been widely used in previous gesture studies but without empirical evidence on its utility. This study also proposed a gesture discomfort evaluation method based on an existing ergonomics posture evaluation tool (Rapid Upper Limb Assessment) and demonstrated its utility in evaluating designed gestures in terms of physical discomfort resulting from prolonged, repetitive gesture use. Rapid Upper Limb Assessment is an ergonomics postural analysis tool that quantifies the work-related musculoskeletal disorders risks for manual tasks, and has been hypothesized to be capable of correctly determining discomfort resulting from prolonged, repetitive gesture use. The two methods were evaluated through comparisons against a baseline method involving discomfort rating after actual prolonged, repetitive gesture use. Correlation analyses indicated that both methods were in good agreement with the baseline. The methods proposed in this study seem useful for predicting discomfort resulting from prolonged, repetitive gesture use, and are expected to help interaction designers create safe and usable gesture-based interaction systems. PMID:28423016

A comparison of two prospective risk analysis methods: Traditional FMEA and a modified healthcare FMEA.

PubMed

Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2016-12-01

To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

PubMed

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2010-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Speciation and environmental risk assessment of heavy metal in bio-oil from liquefaction/pyrolysis of sewage sludge.

PubMed

Yuan, Xingzhong; Leng, Lijian; Huang, Huajun; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Hou; Xiao, Zhihua; Zhai, Yunbo; Chen, Hongmei; Zeng, Guangming

2015-02-01

Liquefaction bio-oil (LBO) produced with ethanol (or acetone) as the solvent and pyrolysis bio-oil (PBO) produced at 550°C (or 850°C) from sewage sludge (SS) were produced, and were characterized and evaluated in terms of their heavy metal (HM) composition. The total concentration, speciation and leaching characteristic of HMs (Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Ni) in both LBO and PBO were investigated. The total concentration and exchangeable fraction of Zn and Ni in bio-oils were at surprisingly high levels. Quantitative risk assessment of HM in bio-oils was performed by the method of risk assessment code (RAC), potential ecological risk index (PERI) and geo-accumulation index (GAI). Ni in bio-oil produced by pyrolysis at 850°C (PBO850) and Zn in bio-oil by liquefaction at 360°C with ethanol as solvent (LBO-360E) were evaluated to possess very high risk to the environment according to RAC. Additionally, Cd in PBO850 and LBO-360E were evaluated by PERI to have very high risk and high risk, respectively, while Cd in all bio-oils was assessed moderately contaminated according to GAI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

PubMed

Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

2015-03-01

The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

2006-01-01

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

FDA pregnancy risk categories and the CPS

PubMed Central

Law, Ruth; Bozzo, Pina; Koren, Gideon; Einarson, Adrienne

2010-01-01

ABSTRACT QUESTION My patient is taking a medication for a chronic condition and has just found out that she is 6 weeks pregnant. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has assigned this medication to pregnancy risk category D, and the Compendium of Pharmaceuticals and Specialties provides no additional data. How should I interpret this information, and how does the Motherisk Program evaluate the safety or risks of drug use in pregnancy? ANSWER Pregnancy safety data provided by the FDA pregnancy risk categories and the Compendium of Pharmaceuticals and Specialties are insufficient to guide clinical decisions on how to proceed with a pregnancy following exposure to a category D medication. The Motherisk Program creates peer-reviewed statements derived from the primary literature, and we examine fetal outcomes as well as the risk-benefit profile of maternal treatment when evaluating the safety of medication use in pregnancy. The FDA announced in May 2008 that it is dropping its pregnancy risk categories and adopting a method similar to the one we use at Motherisk. PMID:20228306

Research on Operation Assessment Method for Energy Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangqun; Huang, Rui; Shen, Liman; chen, Hao; Xiong, Dezhi; Xiao, Xiangqi; Liu, Mouhai; Xu, Renheng

2018-03-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

Ankle-Brachial index by oscillometry: A very useful method to assess peripheral arterial disease in diabetes

PubMed Central

Premanath, M.; Raghunath, M.

2010-01-01

Background: Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) remains the least recognized form of atherosclerosis. The Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI) has emerged as one of the potent markers of diffuse atherosclerosis, cardiovascular (CV) risk, and overall survival in general public, especially in diabetics. The important reason for the lack of early diagnosis is the non-availability of a test that is easy to perform and less expensive, with no training required. Objectives: To evaluate the osillometric method of performing ABI with regard to its usefulness in detecting PAD cases and to correlate the signs and symptoms with ABI. Materials and Methods: Two hundred diabetics of varying duration attending the clinic for a period of eight months, from August 2006 to April 2007, were evaluated for signs, symptoms, and risk factors. ABI was performed using the oscillometric method. The positives were confirmed by Doppler evaluation. An equal number of age- and sex-matched controls, which were ABI negative, were also assessed by Doppler. Sensitivity and Specificity were determined. Results: There were 120 males and 80 females. Twelve males (10%) and six females (7.5%) were ABI positive. On Doppler, eleven males (91.5%) and three females (50%) were true positives. There were six false negatives from the controls (three each). The Sensitivity was 70% and Specificity was 75%. Symptoms and signs correlated well with ABI positives. Hypertension was the most important risk factor. Conclusions: In spite of the limitations, the oscillometric method of performing ABI is a simple procedure, easy to perform, does not require training and can be performed as an outpatient procedure not only by doctors, but also by the paramedical staff to detect more PAD cases. PMID:20535314

Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Henan

2017-12-01

Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

Tooth wear risk assessment and care-planning in general dental practice.

PubMed

O'Toole, S; Khan, M; Patel, A; Patel, N J; Shah, N; Bartlett, D; Movahedi, S

2018-03-09

Objective To assess charting, risk assessment and treatment-planning of tooth wear between recently qualified and experienced dentists in general dental practice.Design Service evaluation.Setting Multi-setting evaluation of three mixed NHS/Private general dental practices in North-East London.Methods The clinical notes of new patient examinations on dentate adults presenting from the 1 October 2016 to 31 December 2016 were audited collecting data on tooth wear charting, risk assessment and treatment planning. Data were analysed using descriptives, chi square and logistic regressions in SPSS. Significance was inferred at p <0.05.Results Foundation dentists and experienced dentists performed 85 and 200 new patient examinations, respectively, during the evaluation period. Tooth wear was charted for 48% of those attending foundation dentists and 5% of those attending experienced dentists. Diet was assessed in 50.6% of patients examined by foundation dentists and 1.0% of patients examined by experienced dentists. Foundation dentists were more likely to chart tooth wear, risk assess and preventively manage tooth wear compared to experienced dentists (p <0.001).Conclusion This service evaluation highlights that improvements are required in recording, risk assessing and preventive treatment planning of erosive tooth wear. Experienced dentists were less likely to risk assess tooth wear and less likely to provide preventive treatment. Experienced GDPs may benefit from re-training in this area.

Risk Factors for Primary Open Angle Glaucoma (POAG) Progression: A Study Ruled in Torino

PubMed Central

Actis, A.G.; Versino, E.; Brogliatti, B.; Rolle, T.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Aim of this retrospective, observational study is to describe features of a population sample, affected by primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) in order to evaluate damage progression on the basis of the emerged individual risk factors. Methods: We included 190 caucasian patients (377 eyes), evaluating relationship between individual risk factors (explicative variables) and MD (Mean Deviation) of standard automated perimetry. We also considered the dependent variable NFI (Neural Fiber Index) of GDx scanning laser polarimetry. Progression has been evaluated through a statistic General Linear Model on four follow up steps (mean follow up 79 months). Results: Factors reaching statistical significance, determining a worsening of the MD variable, are: age (P<0.0001), intraocular pressure (IOP) at follow up (P < 0.0001), female gender (P<0.0001), hypertension (P< 0.0001) and familiarity (P = 0.0006). Factors reaching statistical significance, determining a worsening of the NFI variable, are only IOP at follow up (P = 0.0159) and depression (P = 0.0104). Conclusion: Results of this study confirm and enforce data coming from most recent studies: IOP remains the main risk factor for glaucoma assess and progression; age and familiarity are great risk factors as underlined in the last decades; female sex can be an important risk factors as emerged only in the last years; arterial hypertension should always be evaluated in timing of our clinic follow up. PMID:27347249

76 FR 37620 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-28

... systems. E. Quantitative Methods for Comparing Capital Frameworks The NPR sought comment on how the... industry while assessing levels of capital. This commenter points out maintaining reliable comparative data over time could make quantitative methods for this purpose difficult. For example, evaluating asset...

Harnessing High-Throughput Monitoring Methods to Strengthen 21st Century Risk-Based Evaluations (SETAC Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past ten years, the US government has invested in high-throughput (HT) methods to screen chemicals for biological activity. Under the interagency Tox21 consortium and the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ToxCast™ program, thousands of chemicals have...

Methodology for an occupational risk assessment: an evaluation of four processes for the fabrication of photovoltaic cells.

PubMed

Ungers, L J; Moskowitz, P D; Owens, T W; Harmon, A D; Briggs, T M

1982-02-01

Determining occupational health and safety risks posed by emerging technologies is difficult because of limited statistics. Nevertheless, estimates of such risks must be constructed to permit comparison of various technologies to identify the most attractive processes. One way to estimate risks is to use statistics on related industries. Based on process labor requirements and associated occupational health data, risks to workers and to society posed by an emerging technology can be calculated. Using data from the California semiconductor industry, this study applies a five-step occupational risk assessment procedure to four processes for the fabrication of photovoltaic cells. The validity of the occupational risk assessment method is discussed.

Evaluation of timing of re-appearance of VBNC Legionella for risk assessment in hospital water distribution systems.

PubMed

Marinelli, L; Cottarelli, A; Solimini, A G; Del Cimmuto, A; De Giusti, M

2017-01-01

In this study we estimated the presence of Legionella species, viable but non-culturable (VBNC), in hospital water networks. We also evaluated the time and load of Legionella appearance in samples found negative using the standard culture method. A total of 42 samples was obtained from the tap water of five hospital buildings. The samples were tested for Legionella by the standard culture method and were monitored for up to 12 months for the appearance of VBNC Legionella. All the 42 samples were negative at the time of collection. Seven of the 42 samples (17.0%) became positive for Legionella at different times of monitoring. The time to the appearance of VBNC Legionella was extremely variable, from 15 days to 9 months from sampling. The most frequent Legionella species observed were Legionella spp and L. anisa and only in one sample L. pneumophila srg.1. Our study confirms the presence of VBNC Legionella in samples resulting negative using the standard culture method and highlights the different time to its appearance that can occur several months after sampling. The results are important for risk assessment and risk management of engineered water systems.

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

2014-03-25

Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

[Evidence of work-related musculo-skeletal disorders of the upper extremities and current methods of risk assessment: can Charlie Chaplin give us any suggestions in "modern times"].

PubMed

Apostoli, P; Sala, Emma

2009-01-01

in some sequences of the film "Modern Times" Chaplin is clearly involved in activities at high risk for work-related musculo-skeletal disorders of the upper extremities (UEWMSDs), but evidence and perception of any complaint are not evident. To evaluate the extent of the biomechanical risk using current risk assessment methods and discuss the possible reasons for lack of complaints. we made an analysis using six of the current methods for ergonomic risk assessment (State of Washington, check list OCRA, HAL by ACGIH, RULA Strain Index, OREGE). All the methods applied demonstrated high-to-very high levels of biomechanical risk for the upper extremities, with evident psychic effects but without apparent musculo-skeletal disorders. The discrepancy between evident psychological disorders ad apparent absence of UEWMSDs are discussed as being due to either: an artistic choice by Charlie Chaplin who focused on the aspects thought to be more immediately and easily comic; the short duration of the physical load exertion; or because of a different perception of muscular work and fatigue that was also typical until the 1970's and 1980's, which also confirmed the principles and practices of our preventive and medical disciplines at that time.

Sabotage at Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purvis, James W.

1999-07-21

Recently there has been a noted worldwide increase in violent actions including attempted sabotage at nuclear power plants. Several organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, have guidelines, recommendations, and formal threat- and risk-assessment processes for the protection of nuclear assets. Other examples are the former Defense Special Weapons Agency, which used a risk-assessment model to evaluate force-protection security requirements for terrorist incidents at DOD military bases. The US DOE uses a graded approach to protect its assets based on risk and vulnerability assessments. The Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Bureau of Investigationmore » conduct joint threat and vulnerability assessments on high-risk US airports. Several private companies under contract to government agencies use formal risk-assessment models and methods to identify security requirements. The purpose of this paper is to survey these methods and present an overview of all potential types of sabotage at nuclear power plants. The paper discusses emerging threats and current methods of choice for sabotage--especially vehicle bombs and chemical attacks. Potential consequences of sabotage acts, including economic and political; not just those that may result in unacceptable radiological exposure to the public, are also discussed. Applicability of risk-assessment methods and mitigation techniques are also presented.« less

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: a population-based prospective study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. Methods A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. Results During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. Conclusions These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method. PMID:24666820

Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

2016-10-01

Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Thoracic Injury Risk Curves for Rib Deflections of the SID-IIs Build Level D.

PubMed

Irwin, Annette L; Crawford, Greg; Gorman, David; Wang, Sikui; Mertz, Harold J

2016-11-01

Injury risk curves for SID-IIs thorax and abdomen rib deflections proposed for future NCAP side impact evaluations were developed from tests conducted with the SID-IIs FRG. Since the floating rib guide is known to reduce the magnitude of the peak rib deflections, injury risk curves developed from SID-IIs FRG data are not appropriate for use with SID-IIs build level D. PMHS injury data from three series of sled tests and one series of whole-body drop tests are paired with thoracic rib deflections from equivalent tests with SID-IIs build level D. Where possible, the rib deflections of SID-IIs build level D were scaled to adjust for differences in impact velocity between the PMHS and SID-IIs tests. Injury risk curves developed by the Mertz-Weber modified median rank method are presented and compared to risk curves developed by other parametric and non-parametric methods.

Statistical, epidemiological, and risk-assessment approaches to evaluating safety of vaccines throughout the life cycle at the Food and Drug Administration.

PubMed

Ball, Robert; Horne, Dale; Izurieta, Hector; Sutherland, Andrea; Walderhaug, Mark; Hsu, Henry

2011-05-01

The public health community faces increasing demands for improving vaccine safety while simultaneously increasing the number of vaccines available to prevent infectious diseases. The passage of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendment Act of 2007 formalized the concept of life-cycle management of the risks and benefits of vaccines, from early clinical development through many years of use in large numbers of people. Harnessing scientific and technologic advances is necessary to improve vaccine-safety evaluation. The Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology in the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research is working to improve the FDA's ability to monitor vaccine safety by improving statistical, epidemiologic, and risk-assessment methods, gaining access to new sources of data, and exploring the use of genomics data. In this article we describe the current approaches, new resources, and future directions that the FDA is taking to improve the evaluation of vaccine safety.

Using Outcomes to Analyze Patients Rather than Patients to Analyze Outcomes: A Step toward Pragmatism in Benefit:risk Evaluation.

PubMed

Evans, Scott R; Follmann, Dean

2016-01-01

In the future, clinical trials will have an increased emphasis on pragmatism, providing a practical description of the effects of new treatments in realistic clinical settings. Accomplishing pragmatism requires better summaries of the totality of the evidence in ways that clinical trials consumers---patients, physicians, insurers---find transparent and allow for informed benefit:risk decision-making. The current approach to the analysis of clinical trials is to analyze efficacy and safety separately and then combine these analyses into a benefit:risk assessment. Many assume that this will effectively describe the impact on patients. But this approach is suboptimal for evaluating the totality of effects on patients. We discuss methods for benefit:risk assessment that have greater pragmatism than methods that separately analyze efficacy and safety. These include the concepts of within-patient analyses and composite benefit:risk endpoints with a goal of understanding how to analyze one patient before trying to figure out how to analyze many. We discuss the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) and introduce the partial credit strategy using an example in a clinical trial evaluating the effects of a new antibiotic. As part of the example we introduce a strategy to engage patients as a resource to inform benefit:risk analyses consistent with the goal of measuring and weighing outcomes that are most important from the patient's perspective. We describe a broad vision for the future of clinical trials consistent with increased pragmatism. Greater focus on using endpoints to analyze patients rather than patients to analyze endpoints particularly in late-phase/stage clinical trials is an important part of this vision.

Willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year: an evaluation of attitudes towards risk and preferences

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This paper examines the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) expressed by people who attended the healthcare system as well as the association of attitude towards risk and other personal characteristics with their response. Methods Health-state preferences, measured by EuroQol (EQ-5D-3L), were combined with WTP for recovering a perfect health state. WTP was assessed using close-ended, iterative bidding, contingent valuation method. Data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as usage of health services by the subjects were collected. The attitude towards risk was evaluated by collecting risky behaviors data, by the subject’s self-evaluation, and through lottery games. Results Six hundred and sixty two subjects participated and 449 stated a utility inferior to 1. WTP/QALY ratios varied significantly when payments with personal money (mean €10,119; median €673) or through taxes (mean €28,187; median €915) were suggested. Family income, area income, higher education level, greater use of healthcare services, and the number of co-inhabitants were associated with greater WTP/QALY ratios. Age and female gender were associated with lower WTP/QALY ratios. Risk inclination was independently associated with a greater WTP/QALY when “out of pocket” payments were suggested. Clear discrepancies were demonstrated between linearity and neutrality towards risk assumptions and experimental results. Conclusions WTP/QALY ratios vary noticeably based on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the subject, but also on their attitude towards risk. Knowing the expression of preferences by patients from this outcome measurement can be of interest for health service planning. PMID:24989615

Using Outcomes to Analyze Patients Rather than Patients to Analyze Outcomes: A Step toward Pragmatism in Benefit:risk Evaluation

PubMed Central

Evans, Scott R.; Follmann, Dean

2016-01-01

In the future, clinical trials will have an increased emphasis on pragmatism, providing a practical description of the effects of new treatments in realistic clinical settings. Accomplishing pragmatism requires better summaries of the totality of the evidence in ways that clinical trials consumers---patients, physicians, insurers---find transparent and allow for informed benefit:risk decision-making. The current approach to the analysis of clinical trials is to analyze efficacy and safety separately and then combine these analyses into a benefit:risk assessment. Many assume that this will effectively describe the impact on patients. But this approach is suboptimal for evaluating the totality of effects on patients. We discuss methods for benefit:risk assessment that have greater pragmatism than methods that separately analyze efficacy and safety. These include the concepts of within-patient analyses and composite benefit:risk endpoints with a goal of understanding how to analyze one patient before trying to figure out how to analyze many. We discuss the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) and introduce the partial credit strategy using an example in a clinical trial evaluating the effects of a new antibiotic. As part of the example we introduce a strategy to engage patients as a resource to inform benefit:risk analyses consistent with the goal of measuring and weighing outcomes that are most important from the patient’s perspective. We describe a broad vision for the future of clinical trials consistent with increased pragmatism. Greater focus on using endpoints to analyze patients rather than patients to analyze endpoints particularly in late-phase/stage clinical trials is an important part of this vision. PMID:28435515

Preparation of a flood-risk environmental index: case study of eight townships in Changhua County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Peng, Szu-Hsien

2018-02-26

To evaluate flood-prone areas, correlation analysis of flooding factors for the quantitative evaluation of hazard degree was determined to assist in further disaster prevention management. This study used flood-prone areas in 35 villages over eight townships (Changhua, Huatan, Yuanlin, Xiushui, Puyan, Hemei, Dacun, and Erlin) in Changhua County as research samples. Linear combination was used to evaluate flood-prone environmental indices, and an expert questionnaire was designed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method to determine the weights of factors. These factors were then used to calculate the eigenvector of a pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the weights for the risk assessment criteria. Through collection of disaster cases, with particular focus on specifically protected areas where flooding has occurred or is likely to occur, public adaptation and response capabilities were evaluated by using an interview questionnaire that contains the items of perceived disaster risk, resource acquisition capability, adaptation capability, and environment understanding and disaster prevention education. Overlays in a geographic information system were used to analyze the flood-risk degree in villages and to construct a distribution map that contains flood-prone environment indices. The results can assist local governments in understanding the risk degree of various administrative areas to aid them in developing effective mitigation plans.

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity Land-Based Layout to Mitigate Flood Risk (Case Study in Tempuran Floodplain, Ponorogo Regency) Novia Lusiana1 Bambang Rahadi2 Tunggul Sutanhaji3 1Environmental and Natural Resources Management Graduate Program University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia 23Laboratory of Environment and Natural Resources Engineering, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia Email : novialusiana@rocketmail.com, jbrahadi@ub.ac.id, tunggulsutanhaji@yahoo.com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, N.

2013-12-01

Abstract Floods haves frequently hit Indonesia and have had greater negative impacts. In Javaboth the area affected by flooding and the amount of damage caused by floods have increased. At least, five factors, affect the flooding in Indonesia, including rainfall, reduced retention capacity of the watershed, erroneous design of river channel development, silting-up of the river, and erroneous regional layout. The level of the disastrous risks can be evaluated based on the extent of the threat and susceptibility of a region. One methode for risk assessment is Geographical Information System (GIS)-based mapping. Objectives of this research are: 1) evaluating current flood risk in susceptible areas, 2) applying supported land-based layout as effort to mitigate floodrisk, and 3) evaluating floodrisk for the period 2031 in the Tempuran floodplain of Ponorogo Regency. Result show that the area categorized as high risk covers 104. 6 ha (1. 2%), moderate risk covers 2512. 9 ha (28. 4%), low risk covers 3140. 8 ha (35. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 3096. 1 (34. 9%). Using Regional Layout Design for the years 2011 - 2031, the high risk area covers 67. 9 ha (0.8%), moderate risk covers 3033 ha (34. 3%), low risk covers 2770. 8 ha (31, 3%), and the lowest risk covers 2982. 6 ha (34%). Based on supported land suitability, the high-risk areais only 2. 9 ha (0.1%), moderate risk covers of 426. 1 ha (4. 8%), low risk covers 4207. 4 ha (47. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 4218 ha (47. 6%). Flood risk can be mitigated by applying supported land-based layout as shown by the reduced high-risk area, and the fact that > 90% of the areas are categorized as low or lowest risk of disaster. Keywords : Carrying Capacity, Land Capacity, Flood Risk

A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

2009-11-01

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

A comparative approach for ranking contaminated sites based on the risk assessment paradigm using fuzzy PROMETHEE.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

2009-11-01

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

Environmental Risk Implications of Metals in Sludges from Waste Water Treatment Plants: The Discovery of Vast Stores of Metal-Containing Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Tou, Feiyun; Yang, Yi; Feng, Jingnan; Niu, Zuoshun; Pan, Hui; Qin, Yukun; Guo, Xingpan; Meng, Xiangzhou; Liu, Min; Hochella, Michael F

2017-05-02

Nanoparticle (NP) assessment in sludge materials, although of growing importance in eco- and biotoxicity studies, is commonly overlooked and, at best, understudied. In the present study, sewage sludge samples from across the mega-city of Shanghai, China were investigated for the first time using a sequential extraction method coupled with single particle inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (SP-ICP-MS) to quantify the abundance of metal-containing NPs in the extraction fractions and transmission electron microscopy to specifically identify the nanophases present. In general, most sludges observed showed high concentrations of Cr, Cu, Cd, Ni, Zn, and Pb, exceeding the maximum permitted values in the national application standard of acid soil in China. NPs in these sludges contribute little to the volume and mass but account for about half of the total particle number. Based on electron microscopy techniques, various NPs were further identified, including Ti-, Fe-, Zn-, Sn-, and Pb-containing NPs. All NPs, ignored by traditional metal risk evaluation methods, were observed at a concentration of 10 7 -10 11 particles/g within the bioavailable fraction of metals. These results indicate the underestimate or misestimation in evaluating the environmental risks of metals based on traditional sequential extraction methods. A new approach for the environmental risk assessment of metals, including NPs, is urgently needed.

Evaluating efficiency and statistical power of self-controlled case series and self-controlled risk interval designs in vaccine safety.

PubMed

Li, Rongxia; Stewart, Brock; Weintraub, Eric

2016-01-01

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) and self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) designs have recently become widely used in the field of post-licensure vaccine safety monitoring to detect potential elevated risks of adverse events following vaccinations. The SCRI design can be viewed as a subset of the SCCS method in that a reduced comparison time window is used for the analysis. Compared to the SCCS method, the SCRI design has less statistical power due to fewer events occurring in the shorter control interval. In this study, we derived the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) between these two methods to quantify this loss in power in the SCRI design. The equation is formulated as [Formula: see text] (a: control window-length ratio between SCRI and SCCS designs; b: ratio of risk window length and control window length in the SCCS design; and [Formula: see text]: relative risk of exposed window to control window). According to this equation, the relative efficiency declines as the ratio of control-period length between SCRI and SCCS methods decreases, or with an increase in the relative risk [Formula: see text]. We provide an example utilizing data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) to study the potential elevated risk of febrile seizure following seasonal influenza vaccine in the 2010-2011 season.

Evaluating the role of landscape in the spread of invasive species: the case of the biomass crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As the development and cultivation of new bioeconomy crops and in particular biofuel feedstocks expands there is a pressing need for objective and quantitative methods to evaluate risks and benefits of their production. In particular, the traits being selected for in biofuel crops are highly aligned...

Passive monitoring techniques for evaluating atmospheric ozone and nitrogen exposure and deposition to California ecosystems

Treesearch

Mark E. Fenn; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Susan L. Schilling

2018-01-01

Measuring the exposure of ecosystems to ecologically relevant pollutants is needed for evaluating ecosystem effects and to identify regions and resources at risk. In California, ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) pollutants are of greatest concern for ecological effects. "Passive" monitoring methods have been developed to obtain spatially...

Methodology for Evaluating an Adaptation of Evidence-Based Drug Abuse Prevention in Alternative Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopson, Laura M.; Steiker, Lori K. H.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this article is to set forth an innovative methodological protocol for culturally grounding interventions with high-risk youths in alternative schools. This study used mixed methods to evaluate original and adapted versions of a culturally grounded substance abuse prevention program. The qualitative and quantitative methods…

Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

2011-01-01

Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

Outcome Evaluation of a Community Center-Based Program for Mothers at High Psychosocial Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodrigo, Maria Jose; Maiquez, Maria Luisa; Correa, Ana Delia; Martin, Juan Carlos; Rodriguez, Guacimara

2006-01-01

Objective: This study reported the outcome evaluation of the "Apoyo Personal y Familiar" (APF) program for poorly-educated mothers from multi-problem families, showing inadequate behavior with their children. APF is a community-based multi-site program delivered through weekly group meetings in municipal resource centers. Method: A total…

A Tool for the Automated Design and Evaluation of Habitat Interior Layouts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew A.; Wilhite, Alan W.

2013-01-01

The objective of space habitat design is to minimize mass and system size while providing adequate space for all necessary equipment and a functional layout that supports crew health and productivity. Unfortunately, development and evaluation of interior layouts is often ignored during conceptual design because of the subjectivity and long times required using current evaluation methods (e.g., human-in-the-loop mockup tests and in-depth CAD evaluations). Early, more objective assessment could prevent expensive design changes that may increase vehicle mass and compromise functionality. This paper describes a new interior design evaluation method to enable early, structured consideration of habitat interior layouts. This interior layout evaluation method features a comprehensive list of quantifiable habitat layout evaluation criteria, automatic methods to measure these criteria from a geometry model, and application of systems engineering tools and numerical methods to construct a multi-objective value function measuring the overall habitat layout performance. In addition to a detailed description of this method, a C++/OpenGL software tool which has been developed to implement this method is also discussed. This tool leverages geometry modeling coupled with collision detection techniques to identify favorable layouts subject to multiple constraints and objectives (e.g., minimize mass, maximize contiguous habitable volume, maximize task performance, and minimize crew safety risks). Finally, a few habitat layout evaluation examples are described to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method and tool to influence habitat design.

Evaluation of work posture and quantification of fatigue by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizkya, I.; Syahputri, K.; Sari, R. M.; Anizar; Siregar, I.

2018-02-01

Work related musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), poor body postures, and low back injuries are the most common problems occurring in many industries including small-medium industries. This study presents assessment and evaluation of ergonomic postures of material handling worker. That evaluation was carried out using REBA (Rapid Entire Body Assessment). REBA is a technique to quantize the fatigue experienced by the worker while manually lifting loads. Fatigue due to abnormal work posture leads to complaints of labor-perceived pain. REBA methods were used to an assessment of working postures for the existing process by a procedural analysis of body postures involved. This study shows that parts of the body have a high risk of work are the back, neck, and upper arms with REBA score 9, so action should be taken as soon as possible. Controlling actions were implemented to those process with high risk then substantial risk reduction was achieved.

Toxicity assessment of industrial chemicals and airborne contaminants: transition from in vivo to in vitro test methods: a review.

PubMed

Bakand, S; Winder, C; Khalil, C; Hayes, A

2005-12-01

Exposure to occupational and environmental contaminants is a major contributor to human health problems. Inhalation of gases, vapors, aerosols, and mixtures of these can cause a wide range of adverse health effects, ranging from simple irritation to systemic diseases. Despite significant achievements in the risk assessment of chemicals, the toxicological database, particularly for industrial chemicals, remains limited. Considering there are approximately 80,000 chemicals in commerce, and an extremely large number of chemical mixtures, in vivo testing of this large number is unachievable from both economical and practical perspectives. While in vitro methods are capable of rapidly providing toxicity information, regulatory agencies in general are still cautious about the replacement of whole-animal methods with new in vitro techniques. Although studying the toxic effects of inhaled chemicals is a complex subject, recent studies demonstrate that in vitro methods may have significant potential for assessing the toxicity of airborne contaminants. In this review, current toxicity test methods for risk evaluation of industrial chemicals and airborne contaminants are presented. To evaluate the potential applications of in vitro methods for studying respiratory toxicity, more recent models developed for toxicity testing of airborne contaminants are discussed.

A low-cost rapid upper limb assessment method in manual assembly line based on somatosensory interaction technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shengqian; Liu, Peng; Fu, Danni; Xue, Yiming; Luo, Wentao; Wang, Mingjie

2017-04-01

As an effective survey method of upper limb disorder, rapid upper limb assessment (RULA) has a wide application in industry period. However, it is very difficult to rapidly evaluate operator's postures in real complex work place. In this paper, a real-time RULA method is proposed to accurately assess the potential risk of operator's postures based on the somatosensory data collected from Kinect sensor, which is a line of motion sensing input devices by Microsoft. First, the static position information of each bone point is collected to obtain the effective angles of body parts based on the calculating methods based on joints angles. Second, a whole RULA score of body is obtained to assess the risk level of current posture in real time. Third, those RULA scores are compared with the results provided by a group of ergonomic practitionerswho were asked to observe the same static postures. All the experiments were carried out in an ergonomic lab. The results show that the proposed method can detect operator's postures more accurately. What's more, this method is applied in a real-time condition which can improve the evaluating efficiency.

Effectiveness of a Lifestyle Intervention Program among Persons at High Risk for Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes in a Rural Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vadheim, Liane M.; Brewer, Kari A.; Kassner, Darcy R.; Vanderwood, Karl K.; Hall, Taryn O.; Butcher, Marcene K.; Helgerson, Steven D.; Harwell, Todd S.

2010-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility of translating the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle intervention into practice in a rural community. Methods: In 2008, the Montana Diabetes Control Program worked collaboratively with Holy Rosary Healthcare to implement an adapted group-based DPP lifestyle intervention. Adults at high risk for…

Effects of a Worksite Weight-Control Programme in Obese Male Workers: A Randomized Controlled Crossover Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iriyama, Yae; Murayama, Nobuko

2014-01-01

Objective: We conducted a randomized controlled crossover trial to evaluate the effects of a new worksite weight-control programme designed for men with or at risk of obesity using a combination of nutrition education and nutrition environmental interventions. Subjects and methods: Male workers with or at risk of obesity were recruited for this…

Clinical Experience Using the Mann Assessment of Swallowing Ability for Identification of Patients at Risk for Aspiration in a Mixed-Disease Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez-Fernandez, Marlis; Sein, Michael T.; Palmer, Jeffrey B.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To determine the clinical performance characteristics of the Mann Assessment of Swallowing Ability (MASA) for predicting aspiration (determined by videofluoroscopic swallowing study [VFSS]) in a mixed population. Method: We selected 133 cases clinically evaluated using MASA and VFSS from January through June 2007. Ordinal risk rating…

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose–response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clast

Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

2016-05-01

Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the relationships between genetic damage and disease, and the concomitant ability to use genetic toxicity results per se. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2016. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Health.

Necessity and Effect of Combating Legionella pneumophila in Municipal Shower Systems

PubMed Central

Wiik, Ragnhild; Krøvel, Anne Vatland

2014-01-01

The objective was to obtain research-based, holistic knowledge about necessity and effect of practiced measures against L. pneumophila in municipal shower systems in Stavanger, Norway. The effects of hot water treatment and membrane-filtering were investigated and compared to no intervention at all. The studies were done under real-world conditions. Additionally, a surveillance pilot study of municipal showers in Stavanger was performed. The validity of high total plate count (TPC) as an indication of L. pneumophila was evaluated. A simplified method, named “dripping method”, for detection and quantification of L. pneumophila was developed. The sensitivity of the dripping method is 5 colony-forming units of L. pneumophila/ml. The transference of L. pneumophila from shower water to aerosols was studied. Interviews and observational studies among the stakeholders were done in order to identify patterns of communication and behavior in a Legionella risk perspective. No substantial effects of the measures against L. pneumophila were demonstrated, except for a distally placed membrane filter. No significant positive correlation between TPC and L. pneumophila concentrations were found. L. pneumophila serogroup 2–14 was demonstrated in 21% of the 29 buildings tested in the surveillance pilot. Relatively few cells of L. pneumophila were transferred from shower water to aerosols. Anxiety appeared as the major driving force in the risk governance of Legionella. In conclusion, the risk of acquiring Legionnaires' disease from municipal shower systems is evaluated as low and uncertain. By eliminating ineffective approaches, targeted Legionella risk governance can be practiced. Risk management by surveillance is evaluated as appropriate. PMID:25490721

Urinary lithogenesis risk tests: comparison of a commercial kit and a laboratory prototype test.

PubMed

Grases, Félix; Costa-Bauzá, Antonia; Prieto, Rafel M; Arrabal, Miguel; De Haro, Tomás; Lancina, Juan A; Barbuzano, Carmen; Colom, Sergi; Riera, Joaquín; Perelló, Joan; Isern, Bernat; Sanchis, Pilar; Conte, Antonio; Barragan, Fernando; Gomila, Isabel

2011-11-01

Renal stone formation is a multifactorial process depending in part on urine composition. Other parameters relate to structural or pathological features of the kidney. To date, routine laboratory estimation of urolithiasis risk has been based on determination of urinary composition. This process requires collection of at least two 24 h urine samples, which is tedious for patients. The most important feature of urinary lithogenic risk is the balance between various urinary parameters, although unknown factors may be involved. The objective of this study was to compare data obtained using a commercial kit with those of a laboratory prototype, using a multicentre approach, to validate the utility of these methods in routine clinical practice. A simple new commercial test (NefroPlus®; Sarstedt AG & Co., Nümbrecht, Germany) evaluating the capacity of urine to crystallize calcium salts, and thus permitting detection of patients at risk for stone development, was compared with a prototype test previously described by this group. Urine of 64 volunteers produced during the night was used in these comparisons. The commercial test was also used to evaluate urine samples of 83 subjects in one of three hospitals. Both methods were essentially in complete agreement (98%) with respect to test results. The multicentre data were: sensitivity 94.7%; specificity 76.9%; positive predictive value (lithogenic urine) 90.0%; negative predictive value (non-lithogenic urine) 87.0%; test efficacy 89.2%. The new commercial NefroPlus test offers fast and cheap evaluation of the overall risk of development of urinary calcium-containing calculi.

Analysis of occupational health hazards and associated risks in fuzzy environment: a case research in an Indian underground coal mine.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-09-01

This paper presents a unique hierarchical structure on various occupational health hazards including physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic and psychosocial hazards, and associated adverse consequences in relation to an underground coal mine. The study proposes a systematic health hazard risk assessment methodology for estimating extent of hazard risk using three important measuring parameters: consequence of exposure, period of exposure and probability of exposure. An improved decision making method using fuzzy set theory has been attempted herein for converting linguistic data into numeric risk ratings. The concept of 'centre of area' method for generalized triangular fuzzy numbers has been explored to quantify the 'degree of hazard risk' in terms of crisp ratings. Finally, a logical framework for categorizing health hazards into different risk levels has been constructed on the basis of distinguished ranges of evaluated risk ratings (crisp). Subsequently, an action requirement plan has been suggested, which could provide guideline to the managers for successfully managing health hazard risks in the context of underground coal mining exercise.

Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

2011-12-01

Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-01-01

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-02-03

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

Human action quality evaluation based on fuzzy logic with application in underground coal mining.

PubMed

Ionica, Andreea; Leba, Monica

2015-01-01

The work system is defined by its components, their roles and the relationships between them. Any work system gravitates around the human resource and the interdependencies between human factor and the other components of it. Researches in this field agreed that the human factor and its actions are difficult to quantify and predict. The objective of this paper is to apply a method of human actions evaluation in order to estimate possible risks and prevent possible system faults, both at human factor level and at equipment level. In order to point out the importance of the human factor influence on all the elements of the working systems we propose a fuzzy logic based methodology for quality evaluation of human actions. This methodology has a multidisciplinary character, as it gathers ideas and methods from: quality management, ergonomics, work safety and artificial intelligence. The results presented refer to a work system with a high degree of specificity, namely, underground coal mining and are valuable for human resources risk evaluation pattern. The fuzzy logic evaluation of the human actions leads to early detection of possible dangerous evolutions of the work system and alarm the persons in charge.

Linking environmental risk assessment and communication: An experiment in co-evolving scientific and social knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graffy, E.A.; Booth, N.L.

2008-01-01

Dissemination of information to decision-makers and enhanced methods of public participation are often put forward as antidotes to a perceived disconnect between risk assessment and risk communication in the public domain. However, mechanisms that support both the provision of routine, timely and relevant technical knowledge to the public and meaningful opportunities for public participation in the evaluation and management of risk are few. We argue for the need to re-conceptualise the institutional context in which risk research and communication occur as one in which scientific knowledge and public understanding are co-evolutionary instead of independent or sequential. Here, we report on an experiment to promote coevolution of environmental risk assessment and risk communication through the instrumental use of a web-based platform that dynamically links expert and public discourses through common information sources, linked scenario evaluations, and opportunities for iterative dialogue. On the basis of technical feasibility, research value and public communication capacity, we conclude that there is potential for further refinement of the methodologies presented here. Copyright ?? 2008 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Understanding Suicide Risk: Identification of High Risk Groups during High Risk Times

PubMed Central

Overholser, James C.; Braden, Abby; Dieter, Lesa

2012-01-01

Background The assessment of suicide risk is a complex task for mental health professionals. Certain demographic groups are associated with completed suicide including males, divorced adults, and Caucasians. However, demographic variables alone provide a crude assessment of suicide risk. Psychiatric diagnosis and recent life events may improve the identification of high risk individuals. Method The current study evaluated 148 individuals who died by suicide compared to 257 adults who died suddenly from accidents or medical problems. Psychological autopsy was used to assess Axis I psychiatric diagnosis and recent stressful life events. Results Suicide completers were significantly more likely than comparison subjects to have a depressive disorder, a substance abuse disorder, and to have experienced interpersonal conflict in the months leading up to their death. A discriminant function analysis revealed that the combination of demographic variables, recent stressful life events, and psychiatric diagnoses best discriminated between suicide completers and comparison subjects. Conclusions Proper assessment of suicide risk should include a comprehensive evaluation of demographic characteristics, recent life stressors, and psychiatric diagnosis. PMID:22140004

The clinical relevance of the Waterlow pressure sore risk scale in the ICU.

PubMed

Weststrate, J T; Hop, W C; Aalbers, A G; Vreeling, A W; Bruining, H A

1998-08-01

To evaluate whether the Waterlow pressure sore risk (PSR) scale has prognostic significance for intensive care patients. A prospective study. The surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital Rotterdam. Data were evaluated from 594 patients who had been admitted to the ICU during the year 1994. Each patient was assessed daily with respect to their Waterlow PSR score and the development of pressure sores in the sacral region. Actuarial statistical methods were used to analyse the predictive value of the risk score. When a patient had a Waterlow PSR score > 25 on admission, the risk of developing a pressure sore was significantly increased compared to patients with a PSR score < 25. After admission, the daily Waterlow PSR scores obtained were significantly associated with the risk of developing a pressure sore. For each additional point this risk increased by 23% (95% confidence interval 17 to 28%). The Waterlow PSR scale provides the medical and nursing staff at an early stage with reliable information about the risk patients have in developing a pressure sore.

Calculation of Thallium's toxicity coefficient in the evaluation of potential ecological risk index: A case study.

PubMed

Liu, Yongxia; Wang, Qian; Zhuang, Wen; Yuan, Yanli; Yuan, Yani; Jiao, Keqin; Wang, Mantang; Chen, Qing

2018-03-01

As a common pollutive metal element, Tl is very biotoxic. The potential ecological risk index (RI) proposed by Håkanson is one of the commonest methods for evaluation of ecological risk of a metal in sedimentary environment of a water body. According to the calculation principle proposed by Håkanson, the toxicity coefficient of Tl was calculated, and determined as 10 in this paper. In addition, the environmental risk of Tl in the surface sediment of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal (Zaozhuang Section) was evaluated by RI method, enrichment factor method, etc. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project which benefits four billion people is the largest inter-basin water transfer project in China. The Zaozhuang Section is a significant water conveyance line of this project. We found that the Tl concentrations were 0.46-0.70 μg g -1 with the mean value of 0.61 μg g -1 and were higher than the local background value. The highest contents of Tl occurred in the middle of Zaozhuang section and Tai'erzhuang District, but the enrichment degree of it was much higher in the entrance of Nansihu Lake. The grain size and Al oxides/hydroxides were main factors which controlled the distribution of Tl. Analysis of enrichment factors indicated that Tl in sediments possessed obvious source of human activities which were mainly from combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and mining of mineral resources. As a whole, however, the research region has low Tl content, so Tl has a small probability of environmental pollution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus offering a way for assessing and forewarning flood disaster risk.

Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, B.

2016-12-01

Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and the development of methods to evaluate integrated portfolios of physical and financial risk management strategies.

Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

PubMed

Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

2017-12-29

Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a total PRISMA-A score < 6, lacking identification as SR or MA in the title, and lacking explanation concerning bias risk assessment methods were classified as low-methodological quality. Abstracts with a total PRISMA-A score ≥ 9, including main outcomes results and explanation bias risk assessment method were classified as having low-bias risk. The methodological quality and bias risk of SRs may be determined by abstract's quality and completeness analyses. Our proposal aimed to facilitate synthesis of evidence evaluation by clinical professionals lacking methodological skills. External validation is necessary.

Diagnostic accuracy of different caries risk assessment methods. A systematic review.

PubMed

Senneby, Anna; Mejàre, Ingegerd; Sahlin, Nils-Eric; Svensäter, Gunnel; Rohlin, Madeleine

2015-12-01

To evaluate the accuracy of different methods used to identify individuals with increased risk of developing dental coronal caries. Studies on following methods were included: previous caries experience, tests using microbiota, buffering capacity, salivary flow rate, oral hygiene, dietary habits and sociodemographic variables. QUADAS-2 was used to assess risk of bias. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. Quality of evidence based on ≥3 studies of a method was rated according to GRADE. PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and reference lists of included publications were searched up to January 2015. From 5776 identified articles, 18 were included. Assessment of study quality identified methodological limitations concerning study design, test technology and reporting. No study presented low risk of bias in all domains. Three or more studies were found only for previous caries experience and salivary mutans streptococci and quality of evidence for these methods was low. Evidence regarding other methods was lacking. For previous caries experience, sensitivity ranged between 0.21 and 0.94 and specificity between 0.20 and 1. Tests using salivary mutans streptococci resulted in low sensitivity and high specificity. For children with primary teeth at baseline, pooled LR for a positive test was 3 for previous caries experience and 4 for salivary mutans streptococci, given a threshold ≥10(5) CFU/ml. Evidence on the validity of analysed methods used for caries risk assessment is limited. As methodological quality was low, there is a need to improve study design. Low validity for the analysed methods may lead to patients with increased risk not being identified, whereas some are falsely identified as being at risk. As caries risk assessment guides individualized decisions on interventions and intervals for patient recall, improved performance based on best evidence is greatly needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Evaluation of the Information Security Levels Achieved by Electric Energy Providers in North Arctic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sushko, O. P.; Kaznin, A. A.; Babkin, A. V.; Bogdanov, D. A.

2017-10-01

The study we are conducting involves the analysis of information security levels achieved by energy providers operating in the North Arctic Region. We look into whether the energy providers’ current information security levels meet reliability standards and determine what further actions may be needed for upgrading information security in the context of the digital transformation that the world community is undergoing. When developing the information security systems for electric energy providers or selecting the protection means for them, we are governed by the fact that the assets to be protected are process technologies. While information security risk can be assessed using different methods, the evaluation of the economic damage from these risks appears to be a difficult task. The most probable and harmful risks we have identified when evaluating the electric energy providers’ information security will be used by us as variables. To provide the evaluation, it is necessary to calculate the costs relating to elimination of the risks identified. The final stage of the study will involve the development of an operation algorithm for the North Arctic Region’s energy provider’s business information protection security system - a set of information security services, and security software and hardware.

Research on the nutrition and cognition of high-risk stroke groups in community and the relevant factors.

PubMed

Zhao, N-N; Zeng, K-X; Wang, Y-L; Sheng, P-J; Tang, C-Z; Xiao, P; Liu, X-W

2017-12-01

To investigate the prevalence rate of nutritional risk in high-risk stroke groups in community, analyze its influencing factors, and analyze and compare the relationship between nutritional risk or malnutrition assessed by different nutritional evaluation methods and cognitive function, so as to provide the basis and guidance for clinical nutritional assessment and support. A cross-sectional survey was performed for 1196 cases in high-risk stroke groups in community from December 2015 to January 2017. At the same time, the nutritional status of patients was evaluated using the mini nutritional assessment (MNA) and MNA-short form (MNA-SF), and the cognitive status of patients was evaluated using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE). Moreover, the relevant influencing factors of nutritional risk and MMSE score were analyzed and compared. High-risk stroke groups in community suffered from a high risk of malnutrition. MNA-SF had a higher specificity and lower false positive rate than MNA. Nutritional risk occurred more easily in high-risk stroke groups in community with a history of diabetes mellitus, less physical exercise or light manual labor, daily use of multiple drugs, and higher age. Those with a higher nutritional risk were more prone to cognitive impairment. High-risk stroke groups in community, complicated with hyperhomocysteinemia, daily use of three or more kinds of prescription drugs, and a previous history of stroke, were accompanied by cognitive impairment easily. MNA-SF can be used for the nutritional screening of high-risk stroke groups in community. For the high-risk stroke groups in community, the rational nutritional diet should be publicized, blood sugar should be controlled in a scientific manner and physical exercise should be moderately increased.

Study Sensitivity: Evaluating the Ability to Detect Effects in Systematic Reviews of Chemical Exposures

PubMed Central

Cooper, Glinda S.; Lunn, Ruth M.; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Glenn, Barbara S.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Luke, April M.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

A critical step in systematic reviews of potential health hazards is the structured evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the included studies; risk of bias is a term often used to represent this process, specifically with respect to the evaluation of systematic errors that can lead to inaccurate (biased) results (i.e. focusing on internal validity). Systematic review methods developed in the clinical medicine arena have been adapted for use in evaluating environmental health hazards; this expansion raises questions about the scope of risk of bias tools and the extent to which they capture the elements that can affect the interpretation of results from environmental and occupational epidemiology studies and in vivo animal toxicology studies, (the studies typically available for assessment of risk of chemicals). One such element, described here as “sensitivity”, is a measure of the ability of a study to detect a true effect or hazard. This concept is similar to the concept of the sensitivity of an assay; an insensitive study may fail to show a difference that truly exists, leading to a false conclusion of no effect. Factors relating to study sensitivity should be evaluated in a systematic manner with the same rigor as the evaluation of other elements within a risk of bias framework. We discuss the importance of this component for the interpretation of individual studies, examine approaches proposed or in use to address it, and describe how it relates to other evaluation components. The evaluation domains contained within a risk of bias tool can include, or can be modified to include, some features relating to study sensitivity; the explicit inclusion of these sensitivity criteria with the same rigor and at the same stage of study evaluation as other bias-related criteria can improve the evaluation process. In some cases, these and other features may be better addressed through a separate sensitivity domain. The combined evaluation of risk of bias and sensitivity can be used to identify the most informative studies, to evaluate the confidence of the findings from individual studies and to identify those study elements that may help to explain heterogeneity across the body of literature. PMID:27156196

Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Huang, Ying; Gilbert, Peter B

2011-12-01

Recently a new definition of surrogate endpoint, the "principal surrogate," was proposed based on causal associations between treatment effects on the biomarker and on the clinical endpoint. Despite its appealing interpretation, limited research has been conducted to evaluate principal surrogates, and existing methods focus on risk models that consider a single biomarker. How to compare principal surrogate value of biomarkers or general risk models that consider multiple biomarkers remains an open research question. We propose to characterize a marker or risk model's principal surrogate value based on the distribution of risk difference between interventions. In addition, we propose a novel summary measure (the standardized total gain) that can be used to compare markers and to assess the incremental value of a new marker. We develop a semiparametric estimated-likelihood method to estimate the joint surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. This method accommodates two-phase sampling of biomarkers and is more widely applicable than existing nonparametric methods by incorporating continuous baseline covariates to predict the biomarker(s), and is more robust than existing parametric methods by leaving the error distribution of markers unspecified. The methodology is illustrated using a simulated example set and a real data set in the context of HIV vaccine trials. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Prevention of fall incidents in patients with a high risk of falling: design of a randomised controlled trial with an economic evaluation of the effect of multidisciplinary transmural care

PubMed Central

Peeters, Geeske MEE; de Vries, Oscar J; Elders, Petra JM; Pluijm, Saskia MF; Bouter, Lex M; Lips, Paul

2007-01-01

Background Annually, about 30% of the persons of 65 years and older falls at least once and 15% falls at least twice. Falls often result in serious injuries, such as fractures. Therefore, the prevention of accidental falls is necessary. The aim is to describe the design of a study that evaluates the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a multidisciplinary assessment and treatment of multiple fall risk factors in independently living older persons with a high risk of falling. Methods/Design The study is designed as a randomised controlled trial (RCT) with an economic evaluation. Independently living persons of 65 years and older who recently experienced a fall are interviewed in their homes and screened for risk of recurrent falling using a validated fall risk profile. Persons at low risk of recurrent falling are excluded from the RCT. Persons who have a high risk of recurrent falling are blindly randomised into an intervention (n = 100) or usual care (n = 100) group. The intervention consists of a multidisciplinary assessment and treatment of multifactorial fall risk factors. The transmural multidisciplinary appraoch entails close cooperation between geriatrician, primary care physician, physical therapist and occupational therapist and can be extended with other specialists if relevant. A fall calendar is used to record falls during one year of follow-up. Primary outcomes are time to first and second falls. Three, six and twelve months after the home visit, questionnaires for economic evaluation are completed. After one year, during a second home visit, the secondary outcome measures are reassessed and the adherence to the interventions is evaluated. Data will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle and also an on-treatment analysis will be performed. Discussion Strengths of this study are the selection of persons at high risk of recurrent falling followed by a multidisciplinary intervention, its transmural character and the evaluation of adherence. If proven effective, implementation of our multidisciplinary assessment followed by treatment of fall risk factors will reduce the incidence of falls. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN11546541. PMID:17605771

Using the weighted area under the net benefit curve for decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Talluri, Rajesh; Shete, Sanjay

2016-07-18

Risk prediction models have been proposed for various diseases and are being improved as new predictors are identified. A major challenge is to determine whether the newly discovered predictors improve risk prediction. Decision curve analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the area under the curve and net reclassification index to evaluate the performance of prediction models in clinical scenarios. The decision curve computed using the net benefit can evaluate the predictive performance of risk models at a given or range of threshold probabilities. However, when the decision curves for 2 competing models cross in the range of interest, it is difficult to identify the best model as there is no readily available summary measure for evaluating the predictive performance. The key deterrent for using simple measures such as the area under the net benefit curve is the assumption that the threshold probabilities are uniformly distributed among patients. We propose a novel measure for performing decision curve analysis. The approach estimates the distribution of threshold probabilities without the need of additional data. Using the estimated distribution of threshold probabilities, the weighted area under the net benefit curve serves as the summary measure to compare risk prediction models in a range of interest. We compared 3 different approaches, the standard method, the area under the net benefit curve, and the weighted area under the net benefit curve. Type 1 error and power comparisons demonstrate that the weighted area under the net benefit curve has higher power compared to the other methods. Several simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the improvement in model comparison using the weighted area under the net benefit curve compared to the standard method. The proposed measure improves decision curve analysis by using the weighted area under the curve and thereby improves the power of the decision curve analysis to compare risk prediction models in a clinical scenario.

Mine safety assessment using gray relational analysis and bow tie model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. PMID:29561875

Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2015-11-01

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and metaregression. The pooled cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method was 1.55 times higher (95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.68; p < 0.001) than that obtained using the competing-risks method. Longer followup times and higher proportions of competing risks were not associated with increases in the amount of overestimation of revision risk by the Kaplan-Meier method (all p > 0.10). This may be due to the small number of studies that met the inclusion criteria and conservative variance approximation. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates risk of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty in populations where competing risks (such as death) might preclude the occurrence of the event of interest (revision). Competing-risks methods should be used to more accurately estimate the cumulative incidence of revision when the goal is to plan healthcare services and resource allocation for revisions.

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

Interactive graphics to demonstrate health risks: formative development and qualitative evaluation

PubMed Central

Ancker, Jessica S.; Chan, Connie; Kukafka, Rita

2015-01-01

Background Recent findings suggest that interactive game-like graphics might be useful in communicating probabilities. We developed a prototype for a risk communication module, focusing on eliciting users’ preferences for different interactive graphics and assessing usability and user interpretations. Methods Focus groups and iterative design methods. Results Feedback from five focus groups was used to design the graphics. The final version displayed a matrix of square buttons; clicking on any button allowed the user to see whether the stick figure underneath was affected by the health outcome. When participants used this interaction to learn about a risk, they expressed more emotional responses, both positive and negative, than when viewing any static graphic or numerical description of a risk. Their responses included relief about small risks and concern about large risks. The groups also commented on static graphics: arranging the figures affected by disease randomly throughout a group of figures made it more difficult to judge the proportion affected but was described as more realistic. Conclusions Interactive graphics appear to have potential for expressing risk magnitude as well as the affective feeling of risk. Quantitative studies are planned to assess the effect on perceived risks and estimated risk magnitudes. PMID:19657926

Implications of cost-effectiveness analysis of medical technology. background paper number 5. four common x-ray procedures: problems and prospects for economic evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, J.L.; Krieger, M.J.

This paper is about the economic evaluation of diagnostic procedures. The issue of economic evaluation is explored in the context of four common diagnostic X-ray procedures: the chest X-ray, the skull X-ray, the barium enema study, and the excretory urogram. The paper is divided into two parts. The first part summarizes the different evaluative models underlying studies of the four diagnostic X-ray procedures and to lay out the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The second part contains four separate chapters summarizing what is known about the utilization, costs, risks, and benefits of each procedure, with particular emphasis on themore » evaluative methods employed.« less

Risk Factors for Hepatitis C Virus Transmission Obscure in Nigerian Patients

PubMed Central

Obienu, Olive; Nwokediuko, Sylvester; Malu, Abraham; Lesi, Olufunmilayo A.

2011-01-01

Aim. To determine the prevalence of anti-HCV and risk factors associated with HCV infection in Nigerians. Materials and Method. Patients attending a general outpatient clinic were administered a structured questionnaire on the risk factors for HCV infection. They were also tested for anti-HCV using a third generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Result. The seroprevalence of anti-HCV was 4.7%. Among the risk factors evaluated, none was found to be significantly associated with anti-HCV seropositivity. Conclusion. The risk factors associated with HCV infection in Nigerian patients are obscure. This warrants further studies on the epidemiology of this important cause of liver disease. PMID:21785583

THE LIQUEFACTION RISK ANALYSIS OF CEMENT-TREATED SANDY GROUND CONSIDERING THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL STRENGTH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Norio; Kasama, Kiyonobu; Zen, Kouki; Chen, Guangqi

This paper presents a probabilistic method for assessi ng the liquefaction risk of cement-treated ground, which is an anti-liquefaction ground improved by cemen t-mixing. In this study, the liquefaction potential of cement-treated ground is analyzed statistically using Monte Carlo Simulation based on the nonlinear earthquake response analysis consid ering the spatial variability of so il properties. The seismic bearing capacity of partially liquefied ground is analyzed in order to estimat e damage costs induced by partial liquefaction. Finally, the annual li quefaction risk is calcu lated by multiplying the liquefaction potential with the damage costs. The results indicated that the proposed new method enables to evaluate the probability of liquefaction, to estimate the damage costs using the hazard curv e, fragility curve induced by liquefaction, and liq uefaction risk curve.

Antepartum evaluation of the fetus and fetal well being.

PubMed

O'Neill, Erica; Thorp, John

2012-09-01

Despite widespread use of many methods of antenatal testing, limited evidence exists to demonstrate effectiveness at improving perinatal outcomes. An exception is the use of Doppler ultrasound in monitoring high-risk pregnancies thought to be at risk of placental insufficiency. Otherwise, obstetricians should proceed with caution and approach the initiation of a testing protocol by obtaining an informed consent. When confronted with an abnormal test, clinicians should evaluate with a second antenatal test and consider administering betamethasone, performing amniocentesis to assess lung maturity, and/or repeating testing to minimize the chance of iatrogenic prematurity in case of a healthy fetus.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix C - sequence quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix C generally describes the methods used to estimate accident sequence frequency values. Information is presented concerning the approach, example collection, failure data, candidate dominant sequences, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis.

Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture

DOEpatents

Muller, George; Perkins, Casey J.; Lancaster, Mary J.; MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Patrick, Scott W.; Key, Bradley Robert

2015-07-28

Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture are described. According to one aspect, a computer-implemented security evaluation method includes accessing information regarding a physical architecture and a cyber architecture of a facility, building a model of the facility comprising a plurality of physical areas of the physical architecture, a plurality of cyber areas of the cyber architecture, and a plurality of pathways between the physical areas and the cyber areas, identifying a target within the facility, executing the model a plurality of times to simulate a plurality of attacks against the target by an adversary traversing at least one of the areas in the physical domain and at least one of the areas in the cyber domain, and using results of the executing, providing information regarding a security risk of the facility with respect to the target.

Psychological first aid following trauma: implementation and evaluation framework for high-risk organizations.

PubMed

Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark

2011-01-01

International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.

DO THE RADIOLOGICAL CRITERIA WITH THE USE OF RISK FACTORS IMPACT THE FORECASTING OF ABDOMINAL NEUROBLASTIC TUMOR RESECTION IN CHILDREN?

PubMed Central

PENAZZI, Ana Cláudia Soares; TOSTES, Vivian Siqueira; DUARTE, Alexandre Alberto Barros; LEDERMAN, Henrique Manoel; CARAN, Eliana Maria Monteiro; ABIB, Simone de Campos Vieira

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The treatment of neuroblastoma is dependent on exquisite staging; is performed postoperatively and is dependent on the surgeon’s expertise. The use of risk factors through imaging on diagnosis appears as predictive of resectability, complications and homogeneity in staging. Aim: To evaluate the traditional resectability criteria with the risk factors for resectability, through the radiological images, in two moments: on diagnosis and in pre-surgical phase. Were analyzed the resectability, surgical complications and relapse rate. Methods: Retrospective study of 27 children with abdominal and pelvic neuroblastoma stage 3 and 4, with tomography and/or resonance on the diagnosis and pre-surgical, identifying the presence of risk factors. Results: The mean age of the children was 2.5 years at diagnosis, where 55.6% were older than 18 months, 51.9% were girls and 66.7% were in stage 4. There was concordance on resectability of the tumor by both methods (INSS and IDRFs) at both moments of the evaluation, at diagnosis (p=0.007) and post-chemotherapy (p=0.019); In this way, all resectable patients by IDRFs in the post-chemotherapy had complete resection, and the unresectable ones, 87.5% incomplete. There was remission in 77.8%, 18.5% relapsed and 33.3% died. Conclusions: Resectability was similar in both methods at both pre-surgical and preoperative chemotherapy; preoperative chemotherapy increased resectability and decreased number of risk factors, where the presence of at least one IDRF was associated with incomplete resections and surgical complications; relapses were irrelevant. PMID:29257841

Case-finding for hepatitis C in primary care: a mixed-methods service evaluation

PubMed Central

Datta, Shivani; Horwood, Jeremy; Hickman, Matthew; Sharp, Debbie

2014-01-01

Background Hepatitis C is often asymptomatic, presenting with liver failure and cancer decades after infection. People who inject drugs (PWID) and immigrant populations from countries with a moderate-to-high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are the main risk groups. Deaths and hospital admissions due to HCV cirrhosis tripled between 1998 and 2010, but the majority of people with chronic HCV are unaware of it. Aim To identify patients at risk of developing hepatitis C using routine GP data, to determine the proportion not tested, and to explore GPs’ views regarding testing. Design and setting Mixed-methods service evaluation (density-based selection of PWID) in six NHS practices in Bristol. Method Patients at risk of HCV were identified. The Health Protection Agency laboratory (now part of Public Health England) provided test results. Semi-structured interviews with 17 GPs were audiorecorded and thematic analyses conducted on anonymised transcripts. Results Of 3765 patients identified as being at risk of developing hepatitis C, 3051 (81%) had no test result, including 53% of PWID and 93% of the ‘ethnicity’ group. All GPs said they usually test PWID. Most GPs test for HIV and hepatitis B in immigrants more often than they test for HCV. Barriers to testing included not questioning patients about risk factors, competing priorities, the chaotic lifestyle of PWID, difficulty extracting information from computerised records, and forgetting to address HCV. Conclusion Computer prompts and GP education on whom to test are warranted. Ensuring that country of origin and drug use is included on the new-patient questionnaire might also aid case-finding for HCV. PMID:24567619

Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

PubMed

Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

2011-05-01

Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

[An experimental model for assessing the risk factors for work-related stress in four Italian universities].

PubMed

Miscetti, G; Barberini, L; Chiocchini, D; Cirimbilli, A; Pippi, R; Pampanella, L; Caserta, G; Gargarella, L

2011-01-01

This study, a collaborative effort among the Local Health Authority 2 of Perugia, Italy, the National Coordination of Worker's Safety Representatives for University and Research Institutions and the National Coordination for Protection and Prevention Services for Universities and Research Institutions, describes the results of a method used to evaluate work-related stress. Personnel from four Italian universities, which we call University I, II, III and IV geographically distributed in nord (1), center (2) and south (1) of Italy, responded to a questionnaire regarding risk evaluation of work-related stress in response to the Italian Law 81/2008. The methodology includes a preliminary analysis of the physical/technological and organizational/relational aspects of the company in order to determine a risk factor of work-related stress. This is followed by an evaluation by agencies competent in the areas of prevention and protection, (Administrative personnel of the company, Medical support persons, heads of the Prevention and Protection Service, employee representatives, and others) that apply a specific algorithm and by the employees through the completion of a questionnaire. The employees, mostly men, of the various universities, completed 510 questionnaires. Based on the results of the questionnaires and on a comparison between the expectations of the administration and the employees, the preventative measures that need to be adopted were identified. The results of this study show that there is not complete agreement between the administration and the employees regarding the work-related expectations. This difference in viewpoints could be a source of work-related stress. Some aspects of the study were shown to be of common concern in the various universities, while for other aspects, there were significantly different perceptions between male and female employees. An immediate response is needed with respect to some aspects in the work context and to plan further investigations where the results are not clear. The method used provides an adequate response to the legislative requirements and labor principles, in evaluating the risk of work related stress. In addition the method allows employees to contribute directly to the evaluation process.

Nano-Evaluris: an inhalation and explosion risk evaluation method for nanoparticle use. Part I: description of the methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouillard, Jacques X.; Vignes, Alexis

2014-02-01

In this paper, an inhalation health and explosion safety risk assessment methodology for nanopowders is described. Since toxicological threshold limit values are still unknown for nanosized substances, detailed risk assessment on specific plants may not be carried out. A simple approach based on occupational hazard/exposure band expressed in mass concentrations is proposed for nanopowders. This approach is consolidated with an iso surface toxicological scaling method, which has the merit, although incomplete, to provide concentration threshold levels for which new metrological instruments should be developed for proper air monitoring in order to ensure safety. Whenever the processing or use of nanomaterials is introducing a risk to the worker, a specific nano pictogram is proposed to inform the worker. Examples of risk assessment of process equipment (i.e., containment valves) processing various nanomaterials are provided. Explosion risks related to very reactive nanomaterials such as aluminum nanopowders can be assessed using this new analysis methodology adapted to nanopowders. It is nevertheless found that to formalize and extend this approach, it is absolutely necessary to develop new relevant standard apparatuses and to qualify individual and collective safety barriers with respect to health and explosion risks. In spite of these uncertainties, it appears, as shown in the second paper (Part II) that health and explosion risks, evaluated for given MWCNTs and aluminum nanoparticles, remain manageable in their continuous fabrication mode, considering current individual and collective safety barriers that can be put in place. The authors would, however, underline that peculiar attention must be paid to non-continuous modes of operations, such as process equipment cleaning steps, that are often under-analyzed and are too often forgotten critical steps needing vigilance in order to minimize potential toxic and explosion risks.

Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test

PubMed Central

NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya

2016-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057

Assessment of environmental risk for red mud storage facility in China: a case study in Shandong Province.

PubMed

Wen, Zhi-Chao; Ma, Shu-Hua; Zheng, Shi-Li; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Yan

2016-06-01

Red mud storage facility (RM-SF) pollution remains a serious problem in China mainly due to the RM's huge quantity, little recyclability, and high alkalinity. And, there is also a risk of dam failure because almost all RM-SFs are processed by damming. In order to address this challenge and improve the level of risk management, it is necessary to evaluate the environmental risk of RM-SFs systematically. So, this paper firstly designs a comprehensive evaluation index system with a three-level evaluation index in the terms of RM characteristics, RM-SF characteristics, ambient environment of RM-SF, the management of RM-SF, and the application aspect of RM by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Then, a case of RM-SF from a typical alumina production enterprise is studied according to this system, as is assisted by several experts from different fields when determining the weights of all indicators. The results show that the risk of selected RM-SF primarily depends on the former factors, that is, RM and RM-SF characteristics, while the contributions of the other factors are quite smaller.