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  1. Family Factors Predicting Categories of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Randell, Brooke P.; Wang, Wen-Ling; Herting, Jerald R.; Eggert, Leona L.

    2006-01-01

    We compared family risk and protective factors among potential high school dropouts with and without suicide-risk behaviors (SRB) and examined the extent to which these factors predict categories of SRB. Subjects were randomly selected from among potential dropouts in 14 high schools. Based upon suicide-risk status, 1,083 potential high school…

  2. Prediction of fracture risk. II: Other risk factors.

    PubMed

    Ross, P D

    1996-12-01

    Many osteoporotic fractures are probably preventable-by definition, prevention requires identification of those at risk prior to fracture. There is a continuum in fracture risk and a very wide range in risk among individuals. Bone density, previous fractures, and the frequency and types of falls are important risk factors for fractures. There are also many other risk factors for bone loss, falls, and fractures. People with multiple risk factors are at greater risk than those with either a single risk factor or none. Identification of risk factors can help when planning interventions. For example, dietary deficiencies are amenable to dietary modification or supplementation; however, the effects of many risk factors have not been quantified separately, making it difficult to determine the importance. In addition, it is not possible to accurately predict current bone density and fracture risk from risk factors for bone loss; bone density should always be measured directly.

  3. Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

    PubMed

    Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Personalized Predictive Modeling and Risk Factor Identification using Patient Similarity.

    PubMed

    Ng, Kenney; Sun, Jimeng; Hu, Jianying; Wang, Fei

    2015-01-01

    Personalized predictive models are customized for an individual patient and trained using information from similar patients. Compared to global models trained on all patients, they have the potential to produce more accurate risk scores and capture more relevant risk factors for individual patients. This paper presents an approach for building personalized predictive models and generating personalized risk factor profiles. A locally supervised metric learning (LSML) similarity measure is trained for diabetes onset and used to find clinically similar patients. Personalized risk profiles are created by analyzing the parameters of the trained personalized logistic regression models. A 15,000 patient data set, derived from electronic health records, is used to evaluate the approach. The predictive results show that the personalized models can outperform the global model. Cluster analysis of the risk profiles show groups of patients with similar risk factors, differences in the top risk factors for different groups of patients and differences between the individual and global risk factors.

  5. Risk Factor Fusion for Predicting Multifactorial Diseases

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    validity of method is demonstrated by applying it to predict the occur- rence of gout in patients. 1. INTRODUCTION The goal in this paper is to...and parametric classifier design. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, the prediction of gout , which is a multifactorial disease...is considered. The goal is to classify a patient into one of two classes: gout or non- gout . The approach for gout classification is summarized in

  6. Predictive Modeling of Risk Factors and Complications of Cataract Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Gaskin, Gregory L; Pershing, Suzann; Cole, Tyler S; Shah, Nigam H

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To quantify the relationship between aggregated preoperative risk factors and cataract surgery complications, as well as to build a model predicting outcomes on an individual-level—given a constellation of demographic, baseline, preoperative, and intraoperative patient characteristics. Setting Stanford Hospital and Clinics between 1994 and 2013. Design Retrospective cohort study Methods Patients age 40 or older who received cataract surgery between 1994 and 2013. Risk factors, complications, and demographic information were extracted from the Electronic Health Record (EHR), based on International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition (ICD-9) codes, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes, drug prescription information, and text data mining using natural language processing. We used a bootstrapped least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model to identify highly-predictive variables. We built random forest classifiers for each complication to create predictive models. Results Our data corroborated existing literature on postoperative complications—including the association of intraoperative complications, complex cataract surgery, black race, and/or prior eye surgery with an increased risk of any postoperative complications. We also found a number of other, less well-described risk factors, including systemic diabetes mellitus, young age (<60 years old), and hyperopia as risk factors for complex cataract surgery and intra- and post-operative complications. Our predictive models based on aggregated outperformed existing published models. Conclusions The constellations of risk factors and complications described here can guide new avenues of research and provide specific, personalized risk assessment for a patient considering cataract surgery. The predictive capacity of our models can enable risk stratification of patients, which has utility as a teaching tool as well as informing quality/value-based reimbursements. PMID:26692059

  7. Prediction and Informative Risk Factor Selection of Bone Diseases.

    PubMed

    Li, Hui; Li, Xiaoyi; Ramanathan, Murali; Zhang, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    With the booming of healthcare industry and the overwhelming amount of electronic health records (EHRs) shared by healthcare institutions and practitioners, we take advantage of EHR data to develop an effective disease risk management model that not only models the progression of the disease, but also predicts the risk of the disease for early disease control or prevention. Existing models for answering these questions usually fall into two categories: the expert knowledge based model or the handcrafted feature set based model. To fully utilize the whole EHR data, we will build a framework to construct an integrated representation of features from all available risk factors in the EHR data and use these integrated features to effectively predict osteoporosis and bone fractures. We will also develop a framework for informative risk factor selection of bone diseases. A pair of models for two contrast cohorts (e.g., diseased patients versus non-diseased patients) will be established to discriminate their characteristics and find the most informative risk factors. Several empirical results on a real bone disease data set show that the proposed framework can successfully predict bone diseases and select informative risk factors that are beneficial and useful to guide clinical decisions.

  8. Lifestyle predicts falls independent of physical risk factors.

    PubMed

    Faulkner, K A; Cauley, J A; Studenski, S A; Landsittel, D P; Cummings, S R; Ensrud, K E; Donaldson, M G; Nevitt, M C

    2009-12-01

    Many falls occur among older adults with no traditional risk factors. We examined potential independent effects of lifestyle on fall risk. Not smoking and going outdoors frequently or infrequently were independently associated with more falls, indicating lifestyle-related behavioral and environmental risk factors are important causes of falls in older women. Physical and lifestyle risk factors for falls and population attributable risks (PAR) were examined. We conducted a 4-year prospective study of 8,378 community-dwelling women (mean age = 71 years, SD = 3) enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. Data on number of falls were self-reported every 4 months. Fall rates were calculated (# falls/woman-years). Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR). Physical risk factors (p < or = 0.05 for all) included tall height (RR = 0.89 per 5 in.), dizziness (RR = 1.16), fear of falling (RR = 1.20), self-reported health decline (RR = 1.19), difficulty with Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs) (RR = 1.12, per item), fast usual-paced walking speed (RR = 1.18, per 2 SD), and use of antidepressants (RR = 1.20), benzodiazepines (RR = 1.11), or anticonvulsants (RR = 1.62). Protective physical factors (p < or = 0.05 for all) included good visual acuity (RR = 0.87, per 2 SD) and good balance (RR = 0.85 vs. poor). Lifestyle predicted fewer falls including current smoking (RR = 0.76), going outdoors at least twice weekly but not more than once a day (RR = 0.89 and vs. twice daily). High physical activity was associated with more falls but only among IADL impaired women. Five potentially modifiable physical risk factors had PAR > or = 5%. Fall interventions addressing modifiable physical risk factors with PAR > or = 5% while considering environmental/behavioral risk factors are indicated.

  9. Readmission to medical intensive care units: risk factors and prediction.

    PubMed

    Jo, Yong Suk; Lee, Yeon Joo; Park, Jong Sun; Yoon, Ho Il; Lee, Jae Ho; Lee, Choon-Taek; Cho, Young-Jae

    2015-03-01

    The objectives of this study were to find factors related to medical intensive care unit (ICU) readmission and to develop a prediction index for determining patients who are likely to be readmitted to medical ICUs. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 343 consecutive patients who were admitted to the medical ICU of a single medical center from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012. We analyzed a broad range of patients' characteristics on the day of admission, extubation, and discharge from the ICU. Of the 343 patients discharged from the ICU alive, 33 (9.6%) were readmitted to the ICU unexpectedly. Using logistic regression analysis, the verified factors associated with increased risk of ICU readmission were male sex [odds ratio (OR) 3.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-8.48], history of diabetes mellitus (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.29-7.09), application of continuous renal replacement therapy during ICU stay (OR 2.78, 95% CI 0.85-9.09), white blood cell count on the day of extubation (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.21), and heart rate just before ICU discharge (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06). We established a prediction index for ICU readmission using the five verified risk factors (area under the curve, 0.76, 95% CI 0.66-0.86). By using specific risk factors associated with increased readmission to the ICU, a numerical index could be established as an estimation tool to predict the risk of ICU readmission.

  10. Vertebral fracture status and the World Health Organization risk factors for predicting osteoporotic fracture risk.

    PubMed

    Chen, Peiqi; Krege, John H; Adachi, Jonathan D; Prior, Jerilynn C; Tenenhouse, Alan; Brown, Jacques P; Papadimitropoulos, Emmanuel; Kreiger, Nancy; Olszynski, Wojciech P; Josse, Robert G; Goltzman, David

    2009-03-01

    Vertebral fractures are the most common osteoporotic fracture, and patients with prevalent vertebral fractures have a greater risk of future fractures. However, radiographically determined vertebral fractures are not identified as a distinct risk factor in the World Health Organization (WHO) fracture risk assessment tool. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare potential risk factors including morphometric spine fracture status and the WHO risk factors for predicting 5-yr fracture risk. We hypothesized that spine fracture status provides prognostic information in addition to consideration of the WHO risk factors alone. A randomly selected, population-based community cohort of 2761 noninstitutionalized men and women > or =50 yr of age living within 50 km of one of nine regional centers was enrolled in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMOS), a prospective and longitudinal cohort study following subjects for 5 yr. Prevalent and incident spine fractures were identified from lateral spine radiographs. Incident nonvertebral fragility fractures were determined by an annual, mailed fracture questionnaire with validation, and nonvertebral fragility fracture was defined by investigators as a fracture with minimal trauma. A model considering the WHO risk factors plus spine fracture status provided greater prognostic information regarding future fracture risk than a model considering the WHO risk factors alone. In univariate analyses, age, BMD, and spine fracture status had the highest gradient of risk. A model considering these three risk factors captured almost all of the predictive information provided by a model considering spine fracture status plus the WHO risk factors and provided greater predictive information than a model considering the WHO risk factors alone. The use of spine fracture status along with age and BMD predicted future fracture risk with greater simplicity and higher prognostic accuracy than consideration of the risk factors

  11. Lifestyle risk factors predict healthcare costs in an aging cohort.

    PubMed

    Leigh, J Paul; Hubert, Helen B; Romano, Patrick S

    2005-12-01

    While the U.S. elderly population uses a disproportionate amount of healthcare resources, there is limited knowledge from prospective studies regarding the impact of lifestyle-related factors on costs in this group. The association was examined between smoking, drinking, exercise, body mass index (BMI), and changes in these risk factors, and healthcare costs after 4 years among 68- to 95-year-olds. A total of 1323 participants completed annual surveys providing information on lifestyle factors (1986-1994) and health utilization (1994-1998). Healthcare costs in nine categories were ascertained from validated utilization. The relationships between risk factors and costs were examined in 2004 using linear regression models. Fewer cigarette pack-years and lower BMI were the most significant predictors of lower total costs in 1998 (p<0.001), controlling for baseline sociodemographic factors, costs, and conditions. Associations with smoking were strongest for hospitalizations, diagnostic tests, and physician and nursing-home visits. Those who reduced smoking by one pack per day experienced cost savings of 1160 dollars (p<0.05). The costs for normal weight compared to minimally obese seniors were approximately 1548 dollars lower, with diagnostic testing, physician visits, and medications accounting for much of this difference. Daily walking, measured at baseline, also predicted lower costs for hospitalizations and diagnostic testing. Seniors who were leaner, smoked fewer cigarettes over a lifetime, reduced their smoking, or walked farther had significant subsequent cost savings compared to those with less-healthy lifestyle-related habits.

  12. Risk Factors Predictive of the Problem Behavior of Children at Risk for Emotional and Behavioral Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, J. Ron; Stage, Scott; Duppong-Hurley, Kristin; Synhorst, Lori; Epstein, Michael H.

    2007-01-01

    Logistic regression analyses were used to establish the most robust set of risk factors that would best predict borderline/clinical levels of problem behavior (i.e., a t score at or above 60 on the Child Behavior Checklist Total Problem scale) of kindergarten and first-grade children at risk for emotional and behavioral disorders. Results showed…

  13. Risk factors that predict future onset of each DSM-5 eating disorder: Predictive specificity in high-risk adolescent females.

    PubMed

    Stice, Eric; Gau, Jeff M; Rohde, Paul; Shaw, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Because no single report has examined risk factors that predict future onset each type of eating disorder and core symptom dimensions that crosscut disorders, we addressed these aims to advance knowledge regarding risk factor specificity. Data from 3 prevention trials that targeted young women with body dissatisfaction (N = 1,272; Mage = 18.5, SD = 4.2) and collected annual diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to identify predictors of subthreshold/threshold anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD). Negative affect and functional impairment predicted onset of all eating disorders. Thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dieting, overeating, and mental health care predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold BN, BED, and PD; positive thinness expectations, denial of cost of pursuing the thin ideal, and fasting predicted onset of 2 of these 3 disorders. Similar risk factors predicted core eating disorder symptom onset. Low BMI and dieting specifically predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold AN or low BMI. Only a subset of factors showed unique predictive effects in multivariate models, likely due to moderate correlations between the risk factors (M r = .14). Results provide support for the theory that pursuit of the thin ideal and the resulting body dissatisfaction, dieting, and unhealthy weight control behaviors increase risk for binge/purge spectrum eating disorders, but suggest that youth who are inherently lean, rather than purposely pursuing the thin ideal, are at risk for AN. Impaired interpersonal functioning and negative affect are transdiagnostic risk factors, suggesting these factors should be targeted in prevention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Child and environmental risk factors predicting readiness for learning in children at high risk of dyslexia.

    PubMed

    Dilnot, Julia; Hamilton, Lorna; Maughan, Barbara; Snowling, Margaret J

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the role of distal, proximal, and child risk factors as predictors of reading readiness and attention and behavior in children at risk of dyslexia. The parents of a longitudinal sample of 251 preschool children, including children at family risk of dyslexia and children with preschool language difficulties, provided measures of socioeconomic status, home literacy environment, family stresses, and child health via interviews and questionnaires. Assessments of children's reading-related skills, behavior, and attention were used to define their readiness for learning at school entry. Children at family risk of dyslexia and children with preschool language difficulties experienced more environmental adversities and health risks than controls. The risks associated with family risk of dyslexia and with language status were additive. Both home literacy environment and child health predicted reading readiness while home literacy environment and family stresses predicted attention and behavior. Family risk of dyslexia did not predict readiness to learn once other risks were controlled and so seems likely to be best conceptualized as representing gene-environment correlations. Pooling across risks defined a cumulative risk index, which was a significant predictor of reading readiness and, together with nonverbal ability, accounted for 31% of the variance between children.

  15. Interpreting Hemoglobin A1C in Combination With Conventional Risk Factors for Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Jarmul, Jamie A.; Pignone, Michael; Pletcher, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, but its use for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in combination with conventional risk factors has not been well defined. Methods and Results To understand the effect of HbA1C on CVD risk in the context of other CVD risk factors, we analyzed HbA1C and other CVD risk factor measurements in 2000 individuals aged 40-79 years old without pre-existing diabetes or cardiovascular disease from the 2011-2012 NHANES survey. The resulting regression model was used to predict the HbA1C distribution based on individual patient characteristics. We then calculated post-test 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk incorporating the actual versus predicted HbA1C, according to established methods, for a set of example scenarios. Age, gender, race/ethnicity and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were significant predictors of HbA1C in our model, with the expected HbA1C distribution being significantly higher in non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic Asian and Hispanic individuals than non-Hispanic white/other individuals. Incorporating the expected HbA1C distribution into pretest ASCVD risk has a modest effect on post-test ASCVD risk. In the patient examples we assessed, having an HbA1C < 5.7% reduced post-test risk by 0.4%-2.0% points, whereas having an HbA1C ≥ 6.5% increased post-test risk by 1.0%-2.5% points, depending on the scenario. The post-test risk increase from having an HbA1C ≥ 6.5 % tends to approximate the risk increase from being five years older in age. Conclusions HbA1C has modest effects on predicted ASCVD risk when considered in the context of conventional risk factors. PMID:26349840

  16. Development of a Risk Prediction Model to Individualize Risk Factors for Surgical Site Infection after Mastectomy

    PubMed Central

    Olsen, Margaret A.; Nickel, Katelin B.; Margenthaler, Julie A.; Fox, Ida K.; Ball, Kelly E.; Mines, Daniel; Wallace, Anna E.; Colditz, Graham A.; Fraser, Victoria J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Little data are available regarding individual patients’ risk of surgical site infection (SSI) following mastectomy with or without immediate reconstruction. Our objective was to develop a risk prediction model for mastectomy-related SSI. Methods We established a cohort of women < 65 years of age with mastectomy from 1/1/2004–12/31/2011 using commercial claims data. ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes were used to identify SSI within 180 days after surgery. SSI risk factors were determined with multivariable logistic regression using derivation data from 2004-2008 and validated with 2009–2011 data using discrimination and calibration measures. Results In the derivation cohort 595 SSIs were identified in 7,607 (7.8%) women, and 396 SSIs were coded in 4,366 (9.1%) women in the validation cohort. Independent risk factors for SSIs included rural residence, rheumatologic disease, depression, diabetes, hypertension, liver disease, obesity, preexisting pneumonia or urinary tract infection, tobacco use disorder, smoking-related diseases, bilateral mastectomy, and immediate reconstruction. Receipt of home health care was associated with lower risk. The model performed equally in the validation cohort per discrimination (C statistics 0.657 and 0.649) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.091 and 0.462 for derivation and validation, respectively). Three risk strata were created based on predicted SSI risk, which demonstrated good correlation with the proportion of observed infections in the strata. Conclusions We developed and internally validated an SSI risk prediction model that can be used to counsel women concerning their individual risk of SSI post-mastectomy. Immediate reconstruction, diabetes, and smoking-related diseases were important risk factors for SSI in this nonelderly population of women undergoing mastectomy. PMID:26822880

  17. Validation of a multifactorial risk factor model used for predicting future caries risk with Nevada adolescents.

    PubMed

    Ditmyer, Marcia M; Dounis, Georgia; Howard, Katherine M; Mobley, Connie; Cappelli, David

    2011-05-20

    The objective of this study was to measure the validity and reliability of a multifactorial Risk Factor Model developed for use in predicting future caries risk in Nevada adolescents in a public health setting. This study examined retrospective data from an oral health surveillance initiative that screened over 51,000 students 13-18 years of age, attending public/private schools in Nevada across six academic years (2002/2003-2007/2008). The Risk Factor Model included ten demographic variables: exposure to fluoridation in the municipal water supply, environmental smoke exposure, race, age, locale (metropolitan vs. rural), tobacco use, Body Mass Index, insurance status, sex, and sealant application. Multiple regression was used in a previous study to establish which significantly contributed to caries risk. Follow-up logistic regression ascertained the weight of contribution and odds ratios of the ten variables. Researchers in this study computed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP), negative predictive value (PVN), and prevalence across all six years of screening to assess the validity of the Risk Factor Model. Subjects' overall mean caries prevalence across all six years was 66%. Average sensitivity across all six years was 79%; average specificity was 81%; average PVP was 89% and average PVN was 67%. Overall, the Risk Factor Model provided a relatively constant, valid measure of caries that could be used in conjunction with a comprehensive risk assessment in population-based screenings by school nurses/nurse practitioners, health educators, and physicians to guide them in assessing potential future caries risk for use in prevention and referral practices.

  18. Predicting Children's Depressive Symptoms from Community and Individual Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dallaire, Danielle H.; Cole, David A.; Smith, Thomas M.; Ciesla, Jeffrey A.; LaGrange, Beth; Jacquez, Farrah M.; Pineda, Ashley Q.; Truss, Alanna E.; Folmer, Amy S.

    2008-01-01

    Community, demographic, familial, and personal risk factors of childhood depressive symptoms were examined from an ecological theoretical approach using hierarchical linear modeling. Individual-level data were collected from an ethnically diverse (73% African-American) community sample of 197 children and their parents; community-level data were…

  19. Predicting Reading Disability: Early Cognitive Risk and Protective Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eklund, Kenneth Mikael; Torppa, Minna; Lyytinen, Heikki

    2013-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined early cognitive risk and protective factors for Grade 2 reading disability (RD). We first examined the reading outcome of 198 children in four developmental cognitive subgroups that were identified in our previous analysis: dysfluent trajectory, declining trajectory, unexpected trajectory and typical trajectory. We…

  20. Predicting Reading Disability: Early Cognitive Risk and Protective Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eklund, Kenneth Mikael; Torppa, Minna; Lyytinen, Heikki

    2013-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined early cognitive risk and protective factors for Grade 2 reading disability (RD). We first examined the reading outcome of 198 children in four developmental cognitive subgroups that were identified in our previous analysis: dysfluent trajectory, declining trajectory, unexpected trajectory and typical trajectory. We…

  1. Predicting reading disability: early cognitive risk and protective factors.

    PubMed

    Eklund, Kenneth Mikael; Torppa, Minna; Lyytinen, Heikki

    2013-02-01

    This longitudinal study examined early cognitive risk and protective factors for Grade 2 reading disability (RD). We first examined the reading outcome of 198 children in four developmental cognitive subgroups that were identified in our previous analysis: dysfluent trajectory, declining trajectory, unexpected trajectory and typical trajectory. We found that RD was unevenly distributed among the subgroups, although children with RD were found in all subgroups. A majority of the children with RD had familial risk for dyslexia. Second, we examined in what respect children with similar early cognitive development but different RD outcome differ from each other in cognitive skills, task-focused behaviour and print exposure. The comparison of the groups with high cognitive risk but different RD outcome showed significant differences in phonological skills, in the amount of shared reading and in task-focused behaviour. Children who ended up with RD despite low early cognitive risk had poorer cognitive skills, more task avoidance and they were reading less than children without RD and low cognitive risk. In summary, lack of task avoidance seemed to act as a protective factor, which underlines the importance of keeping children interested in school work and reading.

  2. Risk Factors and Prediction Models for Retinopathy of Prematurity

    PubMed Central

    Senthil, Mallika Prem; Salowi, Mohamad Aziz; Bujang, Mohamad Adam; Kueh, Adeline; Siew, Chong Min; Sumugam, Kala; Gaik, Chan Lee; Kah, Tan Aik

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To develop a simple prediction model for the pre-screening of Retinopathy of Prematurity (ROP) among preterm babies. Methods This was a prospective study. The test dataset (January 2007 until December 2010) was used to construct risk prediction models, and the validation dataset (January 2011 until March 2012) was used to validate the models developed from the test dataset. Two prediction models were produced using the test dataset based on logistic regression equations in which the development of ROP was used as the outcome. Results The sensitivity and specificity for model 1 [gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW), intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) and respiratory distress syndrome (RDS)] was 82 % and 81.7%, respectively; for model 2, (GA and BW) the sensitivity and specificity were 80.5% and 80.3%, respectively. Conclusion Model 2 was preferable, as it only required two predictors (GA and BW). Our prediction model can be used for early detection of ROP to avoid poor outcomes. PMID:28239269

  3. Risk factors in Dupuytren's diathesis: is recurrence after surgery predictable?

    PubMed

    Degreef, Ilse; De Smet, Luc

    2011-02-01

    In order to investigate the prognostic value of possible risk factors for Dupuytren's diathesis, clinical parameters on disease presentation in an operated group of patients were compared with self-reported recurrence after a minimum 2 years follow-up. In order of significance, the following factors were found to be significantly correlated with disease recurrence : age of onset under 50 years (p = 0.01), bilateral disease (p = 0.01), Ledderhose disease (p = 0.01), first ray involvement (p = 0.02), multiple ray involvement (more than 2 digits, p = 0.02), ectopic fibromatosis (p = 0.02), family occurrence (p = 0.04) and male gender (p = 0.05). No correlation of self-reported disease recurrence was seen with diabetes, frozen shoulder syndrome or epilepsy. An insight in the significance of the influence of specific risk factors on recurrence rates, helps in creating a clearer representation of Dupuytren's diathesis. This will help the surgeon to more accurately inform the patient and possibly to reconsider and adjust the choice in treatment options.

  4. Risk prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis using genetic and conventional risk factors in adult Korean population

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Eun Pyo; Go, Min Jin; Kim, Hyung-Lae

    2017-01-01

    A complex interplay among host, pathogen, and environmental factors is believed to contribute to the risk of developing pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). The lack of replication of published genome-wide association study (GWAS) findings limits the clinical utility of reported single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a GWAS using 467 PTB cases and 1,313 healthy controls obtained from two community-based cohorts in Korea. We evaluated the performance of PTB risk models based on different combinations of genetic and nongenetic factors and validated the results in an independent Korean population comprised of 179 PTB cases and 500 healthy controls. We demonstrated the polygenic nature of PTB and nongenetic factors such as age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) were strongly associated with PTB risk. None of the SNPs achieved genome-wide significance; instead, we were able to replicate the associations between PTB and ten SNPs near or in the genes, CDCA7, GBE1, GADL1, SPATA16, C6orf118, KIAA1432, DMRT2, CTR9, CCDC67, and CDH13, which may play roles in the immune and inflammatory pathways. Among the replicated SNPs, an intergenic SNP, rs9365798, located downstream of the C6orf118 gene showed the most significant association under the dominant model (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.32–1.92, P = 2.1×10−6). The performance of a risk model combining the effects of ten replicated SNPs and six nongenetic factors (i.e., age, sex, BMI, cigarette smoking, systolic blood pressure, and hemoglobin) were validated in the replication set (AUC = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76–0.84). The strategy of combining genetic and nongenetic risk factors ultimately resulted in better risk prediction for PTB in the adult Korean population. PMID:28355295

  5. School Violence in Taiwan: Examining How Western Risk Factors Predict School Violence in an Asian Culture

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Ji-Kang; Astor, Ron Avi

    2010-01-01

    The current study explores whether theorized risk factors in Western countries can be used to predict school violence perpetration in an Asian cultural context. The study examines the associations between risk factors and school violence perpetration in Taiwan. Data were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 14,022 students from…

  6. School Violence in Taiwan: Examining How Western Risk Factors Predict School Violence in an Asian Culture

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Ji-Kang; Astor, Ron Avi

    2010-01-01

    The current study explores whether theorized risk factors in Western countries can be used to predict school violence perpetration in an Asian cultural context. The study examines the associations between risk factors and school violence perpetration in Taiwan. Data were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 14,022 students from…

  7. Stress and anger as contextual factors and preexisting cognitive schemas: predicting parental child maltreatment risk.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Christina M; Richardson, Michael J

    2007-11-01

    Progress in the child maltreatment field depends on refinements in leading models. This study examines aspects of social information processing theory (Milner, 2000) in predicting physical maltreatment risk in a community sample. Consistent with this theory, selected preexisting schema (external locus-of-control orientation, inappropriate developmental expectations, low empathic perspective-taking ability, and low perceived attachment relationship to child) were expected to predict child abuse risk beyond contextual factors (parenting stress and anger expression). Based on 115 parents' self-report, results from this study support cognitive factors that predict abuse risk (with locus of control, perceived attachment, or empathy predicting different abuse risk measures, but not developmental expectations), although the broad contextual factors involving negative affectivity and stress were consistent predictors across abuse risk markers. Findings are discussed with regard to implications for future model evaluations, with indications the model may apply to other forms of maltreatment, such as psychological maltreatment or neglect.

  8. Development and Predictive Effects of Eating Disorder Risk Factors during Adolescence: Implications for Prevention Efforts

    PubMed Central

    Rohde, Paul; Stice, Eric; Marti, C. Nathan

    2014-01-01

    Objective Although several prospective studies have identified factors that increase risk for eating disorders, little is known about when these risk factors emerge and escalate, or when they begin to predict future eating disorder onset. The objective of this report was to address these key research gaps. Method Data were examined from a prospective study of 496 community female adolescents (M = 13.5, SD = 0.7 at baseline) who completed eight annual assessments of potential risk factors and eating disorders from preadolescence to young adulthood. Results Three variables exhibited positive linear increases: Perceived pressure to be thin, thin-ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction; three were best characterized as quadratic effects: dieting (essentially little change); negative affectivity (overall decrease), and BMI (overall increase). Elevated body dissatisfaction at ages 13, 14, 15, and 16 predicted DSM-5 eating disorders onset in the 4 year period after each assessment, but the predictive effects of other risk factors were largely confined to age 14; BMI did not predict eating disorders at any age. Discussion The results imply that these risk factors are present by early adolescence, though eating disorders tend to emerge in late adolescence and early adulthood. These findings emphasize the need for efficacious eating disorder prevention programs for early adolescent girls, perhaps targeting 14 year olds, when risk factors appear to be most predictive. In early adolescence, it might be fruitful to target girls with body dissatisfaction, as this was the most consistent predictor of early eating disorder onset in this study. PMID:24599841

  9. Predictive and prognostic factors in definition of risk groups in endometrial carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Sorbe, Bengt

    2012-01-01

    Background. The aim was to evaluate predictive and prognostic factors in a large consecutive series of endometrial carcinomas and to discuss pre- and postoperative risk groups based on these factors. Material and Methods. In a consecutive series of 4,543 endometrial carcinomas predictive and prognostic factors were analyzed with regard to recurrence rate and survival. The patients were treated with primary surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy. Two preoperative and three postoperative risk groups were defined. DNA ploidy was included in the definitions. Eight predictive or prognostic factors were used in multivariate analyses. Results. The overall recurrence rate of the complete series was 11.4%. Median time to relapse was 19.7 months. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, FIGO grade, myometrial infiltration, and DNA ploidy were independent and statistically predictive factors with regard to recurrence rate. The 5-year overall survival rate was 73%. Tumor stage was the single most important factor with FIGO grade on the second place. DNA ploidy was also a significant prognostic factor. In the preoperative risk group definitions three factors were used: histology, FIGO grade, and DNA ploidy. Conclusions. DNA ploidy was an important and significant predictive and prognostic factor and should be used both in preoperative and postoperative risk group definitions.

  10. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p < 0.0001 for differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion

  11. Risk factors for prediction of inadequate response to antiresorptives.

    PubMed

    Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Olmos, Jose M; Nogués, Xavier; Sosa, Manuel; Díaz-Curiel, Manuel; Pérez-Castrillón, Jose Luis; Pérez-Cano, Ramon; Muñoz-Torres, Manuel; Torrijos, Antonio; Jodar, Esteban; Del Rio, Luis; Caeiro-Rey, Jose R; Farrerons, Jordi; Vila, Joan; Arnaud, Claude; González-Macías, Jesus

    2012-04-01

    Some patients sustain fractures while on antiresorptives. Whether this represents an inadequate response (IR) to treatment or a chance event has not been elucidated. We performed a study to identify which patients are more likely to fracture while on treatment. This is a multicentric, cross-sectional study of postmenopausal women on antiresorptives for osteoporosis in 12 Spanish hospitals, classified as adequate responders (ARs) if on treatment with antiresorptives for 5 years with no incident fractures or inadequate responders (IRs) if an incident fracture occurred between 1 and 5 years on treatment. Poor compliance, secondary osteoporosis, and previous anti-osteoporosis treatment other than the assessed were exclusion criteria. Clinical, demographic, analytical, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) variables, and proximal femur structure analysis (ImaTx™) and structural/fractal analyses of distal radius were performed. A total of 179 women (76 IRs; mean (SD): age 68.2 (9.0) years; 103 ARs, age 68.5 (7.9) years) were included. History of prior fracture (p = 0.005), two or more falls in the previous year (p = 0.032), low lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) (p = 0.02), 25 hydroxyvitamin D (p = 0.017), and hip ImaTx fracture load index (p = 0.004) were associated with IR. In the logistic regression models a fracture before treatment (odds ratio [OR], 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-8.82; p = 0.005) and levels of 25 hydroxyvitamin D below 20 ng/mL (OR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.55-9.77; p = 0.004) significantly increased risk for IR, while increased ImaTx fracture load (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99; p = 0.006; per every 100 units) was protective, although the latter became not significant when all three variables were fitted into the model. Therefore, we can infer that severity of the disease, with microarchitectural and structure deterioration, as shown by previous fracture and hip analysis, and low levels of 25 hydroxy vitamin

  12. Validation of predictive factors of dysphagia risk following thermal burns: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Rumbach, Anna F; Ward, Elizabeth C; Heaton, Sarah; Bassett, Lynell V; Webster, Anne; Muller, Michael J

    2014-06-01

    The objective of this study was to prospectively evaluate the validity and reliability of a risk factor model developed for use in predicting dysphagia risk within the first 24 h after injury/hospitalisation in patients with thermal burns. Three hundred and fifty six patients with thermal burns, with or without inhalation injury, who were consecutively admitted to and received management at a quaternary state-wide burn center over a 12 month period, were included. Patients were reviewed for dysphagia risk by nursing staff using an established set of predictive factors. If risk factors for dysphagia were present, referral to speech-language pathology was initiated to investigate swallow function. Of the 356 admissions, 83 patients were identified as meeting one or more risk criteria for dysphagia after burn. Of these, 24.9% (n = 30; 8.42% of the total cohort) presented with dysphagia. Using these criteria, sensitivity and specificity for detection of dysphagia risk were high (100% and 83.74%, respectively). The criteria over identify patients who may be at risk of dysphagia and who require dysphagia assessment (positive predictive value = 36.14%). However, as a set of predictors of dysphagia risk when thermal burn is the only complaint, a negative result reassures that a patient does not have dysphagia (negative predictive value = 100%). Overall, the risk factor model provided a valid measure for predicting dysphagia risk. Incorporating these criteria into a dysphagia screening assessment can ensure an evidence-based pathway for early detection and timely referral to speech-language pathology for patients at risk of dysphagia after thermal burns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  13. Which Risk Factors Predict the Basic Reading Skills of Children at Risk for Emotional and Behavioral Disorders?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, J. Ron; Stage, Scott; Trout, Alex; Duppong-Hurley, Kristin; Epstein, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    Multinomial stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to establish the most robust set of risk factors that would best predict low basic reading skills (i.e., a standard score less than 85 on the Woodcock Reading Mastery Test-Revised Basic Reading Skills cluster) of kindergarten and first-grade children at risk for emotional and behavioral…

  14. Which Risk Factors Predict the Basic Reading Skills of Children at Risk for Emotional and Behavioral Disorders?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, J. Ron; Stage, Scott; Trout, Alex; Duppong-Hurley, Kristin; Epstein, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    Multinomial stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to establish the most robust set of risk factors that would best predict low basic reading skills (i.e., a standard score less than 85 on the Woodcock Reading Mastery Test-Revised Basic Reading Skills cluster) of kindergarten and first-grade children at risk for emotional and behavioral…

  15. Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes by Using Data on Easy-to-Measure Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Buchner, David M.; Grigsby-Toussaint, Diana S.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Statistical models for assessing risk of type 2 diabetes are usually additive with linear terms that use non-nationally representative data. The objective of this study was to use nationally representative data on diabetes risk factors and spline regression models to determine the ability of models with nonlinear and interaction terms to assess the risk of type 2 diabetes. Methods We used 4 waves of data (2005–2006 to 2011–2012) on adults aged 20 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 5,471) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to build risk models in 2015. MARS allowed for interactions among 17 noninvasively measured risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Results A key risk factor for type 2 diabetes was increasing age, especially for those older than 69, followed by a family history of diabetes, with diminished risk among individuals younger than 45. Above age 69, other risk factors superseded age, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure. The additive MARS model with nonlinear terms had an area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic of 0.847, whereas the 2-way interaction MARS model had an AUC of 0.851, a slight improvement. Both models had an 87% accuracy in classifying diabetes status. Conclusion Statistical models of type 2 diabetes risk should allow for nonlinear associations; incorporation of interaction terms into the MARS model improved its performance slightly. Robust statistical manipulation of risk factors commonly measured noninvasively in clinical settings might provide useful estimates of type 2 diabetes risk. PMID:28278129

  16. Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

    PubMed

    Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

    2012-03-01

    Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed.

  17. Latent variable modeling improves AKI risk factor identification and AKI prediction compared to traditional methods.

    PubMed

    Smith, Loren E; Smith, Derek K; Blume, Jeffrey D; Siew, Edward D; Billings, Frederic T

    2017-02-08

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is diagnosed based on postoperative serum creatinine change, but AKI models have not consistently performed well, in part due to the omission of clinically important but practically unmeasurable variables that affect creatinine. We hypothesized that a latent variable mixture model of postoperative serum creatinine change would partially account for these unmeasured factors and therefore increase power to identify risk factors of AKI and improve predictive accuracy. We constructed a two-component latent variable mixture model and a linear model using data from a prospective, 653-subject randomized clinical trial of AKI following cardiac surgery (NCT00791648) and included established AKI risk factors and covariates known to affect serum creatinine. We compared model fit, discrimination, power to detect AKI risk factors, and ability to predict AKI between the latent variable mixture model and the linear model. The latent variable mixture model demonstrated superior fit (likelihood ratio of 6.68 × 10(71)) and enhanced discrimination (permutation test of Spearman's correlation coefficients, p < 0.001) compared to the linear model. The latent variable mixture model was 94% (-13 to 1132%) more powerful (median [range]) at identifying risk factors than the linear model, and demonstrated increased ability to predict change in serum creatinine (relative mean square error reduction of 6.8%). A latent variable mixture model better fit a clinical cohort of cardiac surgery patients than a linear model, thus providing better assessment of the associations between risk factors of AKI and serum creatinine change and more accurate prediction of AKI. Incorporation of latent variable mixture modeling into AKI research will allow clinicians and investigators to account for clinically meaningful patient heterogeneity resulting from unmeasured variables, and therefore provide improved ability to examine risk factors, measure mechanisms and mediators of

  18. Predicting fractures in an international cohort using risk factor algorithms without BMD.

    PubMed

    Sambrook, Philip N; Flahive, Julie; Hooven, Fred H; Boonen, Steven; Chapurlat, Roland; Lindsay, Robert; Nguyen, Tuan V; Díez-Perez, Adolfo; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Greenspan, Susan L; Hosmer, David; Netelenbos, J Coen; Adachi, Jonathan D; Watts, Nelson B; Cooper, Cyrus; Roux, Christian; Rossini, Maurizio; Siris, Ethel S; Silverman, Stuart; Saag, Kenneth G; Compston, Juliet E; LaCroix, Andrea; Gehlbach, Stephen

    2011-11-01

    Clinical risk factors are associated with increased probability of fracture in postmenopausal women. We sought to compare prediction models using self-reported clinical risk factors, excluding BMD, to predict incident fracture among postmenopausal women. The GLOW study enrolled women aged 55 years or older from 723 primary-care practices in 10 countries. The population comprised 19,586 women aged 60 years or older who were not receiving antiosteoporosis medication and were followed annually for 2 years. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data on characteristics, fracture risk factors, previous fractures, and health status. The main outcome measure compares the C index for models using the WHO Fracture Risk (FRAX), the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC), and a simple model using age and prior fracture. Over 2 years, 880 women reported incident fractures including 69 hip fractures, 468 "major fractures" (as defined by FRAX), and 583 "osteoporotic fractures" (as defined by FRC). Using baseline clinical risk factors, both FRAX and FRC showed a moderate ability to correctly order hip fracture times (C index for hip fracture 0.78 and 0.76, respectively). C indices for "major" and "osteoporotic" fractures showed lower values, at 0.61 and 0.64. Neither algorithm was better than the model based on age + fracture history alone (C index for hip fracture 0.78). In conclusion, estimation of fracture risk in an international primary-care population of postmenopausal women can be made using clinical risk factors alone without BMD. However, more sophisticated models incorporating multiple clinical risk factors including falls were not superior to more parsimonious models in predicting future fracture in this population.

  19. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by pre-pregnancy, perinatal, and postnatal factors.

    PubMed

    Wen, Hui-Ju; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lin, Shio-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon

    2015-05-01

    Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma. National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 yr old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma. A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician-diagnosed asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-yr-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and the presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-yr-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Integrating DSM-IV factors to predict violence in high-risk psychiatric patients.

    PubMed

    Lynch, Donna M; Noel, Helen C

    2010-01-01

    This study incorporated Axis-II and Axis-IV factors in DSM-IV to test the relationship between predicted risk for violence assessed in the psychiatric emergency room and actual violence during hospitalization. Psychiatric nurses lack an objective instrument to use during the acute psychiatric assessment. The retrospective study comprised consecutive psychiatric admissions (n = 161) in one tertiary veterans' hospital. Statistical testing for the predictive power of risk factors, relationships between variables, and violent events included nonparametric tests, factor analysis, and logistic regression. Of the 32 patients who committed violence during hospitalization, 12 had committed violence in the psychiatric emergency room. Statistical significance was shown for violent incidents and dementia, court-ordered admission, mood disorder, and for three or more risk factors. The 13-item Risk of Violence Assessment (ROVA) scale suggests validity and sensitivity for rating DSM-IV factors and psychosocial stressors to predict risk for violence during hospitalization. Replication studies are recommended to strengthen validity of the ROVA scale.

  1. Risk factors and a predictive model for thyroid cancer in Korean women.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sun-Mi; Kwak, Keun-Hae

    2010-01-01

    Thyroid cancer incidence in Korean women has increased radically and is the highest in all cancer types. However, the rate of cancer screening among women is very low. The aim of the study was to determine the risk factors for thyroid cancer and to develop a predictive model based on these risk factors. The study design comprised a literature review and a case-control study. To construct a predictive model, the participants selected were 260 female outpatients diagnosed with malignant neoplasm of thyroid gland who had undergone thyroid removal surgery. A total of 259 people for the control group were selected by adopting a 5-year age-matching method. From the literature review, 6 categories of risk factors were identified. Nine variables, including occupation, live(d) in coastal region, family history of thyroid cancer, history of benign thyroid tumor, menopause status and weight gain, number of full-term deliveries, abortion, exercise intensity, and stress, remained as statistically significant risk factors in the stepwise regression model. Regarding the predictive power of the model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .79, accuracy was .77, sensitivity was .89, specificity was .65, positive predictive value was .72, and negative predictive value was .85. The predictive power of the model was relatively good, so it can be used to identify individuals at high risk for thyroid cancer. The predictive model can be used in promoting to participate in early cancer-screening tests. Thus, it will be possible to detect thyroid cancer in its earliest stage, diminish mortality, and improve quality of life.

  2. Little contribution of conventional factors in an algorithm to predicting death risk in Turkish adults.

    PubMed

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Ademoğlu, Evin; Kaya, Adnan; Tusun, Eyyup; Ural, Dilek

    2017-03-01

    Determinants of risk of death are highly relevant for the management strategy of individuals. We aimed to determine an algorithm for predicting risk of death in Turkish adults who have a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Nine-year risk of death was estimated in 3348 middle-aged adults, followed over 8.81±4.2years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk of death. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. Death occurred in 565 subjects. In multivariable analysis, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol levels were not predictive in either sex; in women, current smoking was also not predictive. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160mmHg and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes, beyond smoking status in men. Exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the stated 7 variables showed an 11- to 18-fold spread in the absolute risk of dying among individuals in the highest than in the lowest of 4 risk score categories. C-statistics of the model using age alone was 0.790 in men, 0.808 in women (p<0.001 each), while the incorporation of 6 conventional risk factors contributed to C-index was >0.020 in males and 0.009 in females. In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, serum lipoproteins and, in women, smoking status, were not relevant for the risk of death. The contribution of conventional risk factors beyond age to estimating risk of death was modest among Turkish men, and little in women in whom autoimmune activation is operative. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Algorithm for predicting CHD death risk in Turkish adults: conventional factors contribute only moderately in women

    PubMed Central

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Kaya, Ayşem; Keskin, Muhammed; Hayıroğlu, Mert İ.; Yüksel, Hüsniye

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To assist the management strategy of individuals, we determined an algorithm for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) death in Turkish adults with a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Methods: The risk of CHD death was estimated in 3054 middle-aged adults, followed over 9.08±4.2 years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. Results: CHD death was identified in 233 subjects. In multivariable analysis, the serum high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) level was not predictive in men and the non-HDL-C level was not predictive in women. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg, smoking habit, and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes. The exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change the risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the 7 stated variables, individuals in the highest category of risk score showed a 19- to 50-fold higher spread in the absolute risk of death from CHD than those in the second lowest category. C-index of the model using age alone was as high as 0.774 in men and 0.836 in women (p<0.001 each), while the incorporation of 6 conventional risk factors contributed to a C-index of 0.058 in males and 0.042 in females. Conclusion: In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, men disclosed anticipated risk parameters (except for high HDL-C levels) as determinants of the risk of CHD death. On the other hand, serum non-HDL-C levels and moderate systolic hypertension were not relevant in women. The moderate contribution of conventional risk factors (beyond age) to the estimation of the risk of CHD death in women is consistent with the operation of autoimmune activation. PMID:28315569

  4. Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Munyua, Peninah M.; Murithi, R. Mbabu; Ithondeka, Peter; Hightower, Allen; Thumbi, Samuel M.; Anyangu, Samuel A.; Kiplimo, Jusper; Bett, Bernard; Vrieling, Anton; Breiman, Robert F.; Njenga, M. Kariuki

    2016-01-01

    Background To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Methods Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Results The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05). Conclusion RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease. PMID:26808021

  5. Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Munyua, Peninah M; Murithi, R Mbabu; Ithondeka, Peter; Hightower, Allen; Thumbi, Samuel M; Anyangu, Samuel A; Kiplimo, Jusper; Bett, Bernard; Vrieling, Anton; Breiman, Robert F; Njenga, M Kariuki

    2016-01-01

    To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05). RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease.

  6. [Study on risk factors and predictive model for lumbar intervertebral disc herniation in the rural population].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Si-yu; Huang, Peng; Huang, Xin; Chen, Ting; Zhao, Xin; Liang, Cui-min; Li, Lin-xiang; Tan, Hong-zhuan

    2009-11-01

    To explore the risk factors on the symptoms of lumbar intervertebral disc herniation so as to develop a predictive model for the disease. With a population-based case-control study, 303 of 50 123 residents were diagnosed as having lumbar intervertebral disc herniation symptoms. 152 cases and 167 healthy controls, matched by gender and age, were randomly chosen as case and control groups. Questionnaires were used to collect information on the exposure to risk factors and logistic predictive model was then established. Through non-conditional logistic regression analysis, data showed that the positive family history of lumbar vertebra disorder, lumbar treatment or surgery, mental stress, acute low back injury, permanent work pose, and body mass index >/= 23.0 kg/m(2) were the risk factors among residents from the countryside. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of logistic predictive model was 0.809. When 0.4 was set as the classification cutoff, the total predictive correct rate, sensitivity, and specificity were 74.0%, 73.7%, and 74.3% respectively. The occurrence of lumbar disk herniation can in countryside population was affected by multi-variables including genetic and environmental, and could be predicted with the logistic regression model established by our group. The positive predictive results could be used to alarm the patients and doctors for prevention and treatment of the disease.

  7. Early and late coronary deaths in the US Railroad study predicted by major coronary risk factors.

    PubMed

    Menotti, Alessandro; Kromhout, Daan; Blackburn, Henry; Jacobs, David; Lanti, Mariapaola

    2004-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the duration of the association of major coronary risk factors measured on a single occasion with coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths during 40 years in a population sample of middle-aged men. Measurement of age, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, and cigarette smoking was made on a single occasion in 2376 cardiovascular disease free men, aged 40-59, belonging to the US Railroad cohort of the Seven Countries Study enrolled in the late 1950s. During 40 years of follow up 627 men died from typical CHD (sudden death coronary death or definite myocardial infarction). Eight partitioned proportional hazards models were solved, one for each independent 5-year block of follow up, to predict the risk of CHD death. Eight 5-year partitioned hazard scores, derived from the coefficients, were cumulated for each risk factor. The resulting curves showed a regularly increasing time trend in risk for coronary deaths as a function of serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and cigarette smoking, for the first 30-35 years of follow up followed by a loss of predictive power thereafter. The curves fit straight lines, with large squared correlation coefficients ranging from 0.96 to 0.99. There was a relatively constant strength in the association of risk factors levels with events, which are predicted irrespective of the distance from risk factor measurements. Measurement of major coronary risk factors taken on a single occasion in middle-aged men maintained a regular and almost monotonic relationship with the subsequent occurrence of CHD deaths for at least 30-35 years of follow up.

  8. Updated risk factors should be used to predict development of diabetes.

    PubMed

    Bethel, Mary Angelyn; Hyland, Kristen A; Chacra, Antonio R; Deedwania, Prakash; Fulcher, Gregory R; Holman, Rury R; Jenssen, Trond; Levitt, Naomi S; McMurray, John J V; Boutati, Eleni; Thomas, Laine; Sun, Jie-Lena; Haffner, Steven M

    2017-05-01

    Predicting incident diabetes could inform treatment strategies for diabetes prevention, but the incremental benefit of recalculating risk using updated risk factors is unknown. We used baseline and 1-year data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) Trial to compare diabetes risk prediction using historical or updated clinical information. Among non-diabetic participants reaching 1year of follow-up in NAVIGATOR, we compared the performance of the published baseline diabetes risk model with a "landmark" model incorporating risk factors updated at the 1-year time point. The C-statistic was used to compare model discrimination and reclassification analyses to demonstrate the relative accuracy of diabetes prediction. A total of 7527 participants remained non-diabetic at 1year, and 2375 developed diabetes during a median of 4years of follow-up. The C-statistic for the landmark model was higher (0.73 [95% CI 0.72-0.74]) than for the baseline model (0.67 [95% CI 0.66-0.68]). The landmark model improved classification to modest (<20%), moderate (20%-40%), and high (>40%) 4-year risk, with a net reclassification index of 0.14 (95% CI 0.10-0.16) and an integrated discrimination index of 0.01 (95% CI 0.003-0.013). Using historical clinical values to calculate diabetes risk reduces the accuracy of prediction. Diabetes risk calculations should be routinely updated to inform discussions about diabetes prevention at both the patient and population health levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Ankle-brachial index predicts stroke in the general population in addition to classical risk factors.

    PubMed

    Gronewold, Janine; Hermann, Dirk M; Lehmann, Nils; Kröger, Knut; Lauterbach, Karl; Berger, Klaus; Weimar, Christian; Kälsch, Hagen I M; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Bauer, Marcus; Erbel, Raimund

    2014-04-01

    Predictors of future stroke events gain importance in vascular medicine. Herein, we investigated the value of the ankle-brachial index (ABI), a simple non-invasive marker of atherosclerosis, as stroke predictor in addition to established risk factors that are part of the Framingham risk score (FRS). 4299 subjects from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study (45-75 years; 47.3% men) without previous stroke, coronary heart disease or myocardial infarcts were followed up for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke events over 109.0±23.3 months. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to evaluate ABI as stroke predictor in addition to established vascular risk factors (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, LDL, HDL, diabetes, smoking). 104 incident strokes (93 ischemic) occurred (incidence rate: 2.69/1000 person-years). Subjects suffering stroke had significantly lower ABI values at baseline than the remaining subjects (1.03±0.22 vs. 1.13±0.14, p<0.001). In a multivariable Cox regression, ABI predicted stroke in addition to classical risk factors (hazard ratio=0.77 per 0.1, 95% confidence interval=0.69-0.86). ABI predicted stroke events in subjects above and below 65 years, both in men and women. ABI specifically influenced stroke risk in subjects belonging to the highest (>13%) and intermediate (8-13%) FRS tercile. In these subjects, stroke incidence was 28.13 and 8.13/1000 person-years, respectively, for ABI<0.9, compared with 3.97 and 2.07/1000 person-years for 0.9≤ABI≤1.3. ABI predicts stroke in the general population, specifically in subjects with classical risk factors, where ABI identifies subjects at particularly high stroke risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Factors Predicting Adherence to Risk Management Behaviors of Women at Increased Risk for Developing Lymphedema

    PubMed Central

    Sherman, Kerry A.; Miller, Suzanne M.; Roussi, Pagona; Taylor, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Lymphedema affects 20-30% of women following breast cancer treatment. However, even when women are informed, they do not necessarily adhere to recommended lymphedema self-management regimens. Utilizing the Cognitive-Social Health Information Processing framework, we assessed cognitive and emotional factors influencing adherence to lymphedema risk management. Methods Women with breast cancer who had undergone breast and lymph node surgery were recruited through the Fox Chase Cancer Centre breast clinic. Participants (N=103) completed measures of lymphedema-related perceived risk, beliefs and expectancies, distress, self-regulatory ability to manage distress, knowledge, and adherence to risk management behaviors. They then received the American Cancer Society publication “Lymphedema: What Every Woman with Breast Cancer Should Know”. Cognitive and affective variables were reassessed at 6- and 12-months post-baseline. Results Maximum likelihood multilevel model analyses indicated that overall adherence increased over time, with significant differences between baseline and 6- and 12- month assessments. Adherence to wearing gloves was significantly lower than that for all other behaviors except electric razor use. Distress significantly decreased, and knowledge significantly increased, over time. Greater knowledge, higher self-efficacy to enact behaviors, lower distress, and higher self-regulatory ability to manage distress were associated with increased adherence. Conclusions Women who understand lymphedema risk management and feel confident in managing this risk are more likely to adhere to recommended strategies. These factors should be rigorously assessed as part of routine care to ensure that women have the self-efficacy to seek treatment and the self-regulatory skills to manage distress, which may undermine attempts to seek medical assistance. PMID:24970542

  11. Cardiorespiratory fitness is a stronger indicator of cardiometabolic risk factors and risk prediction than self-reported physical activity levels.

    PubMed

    Gray, Benjamin J; Stephens, Jeffrey W; Williams, Sally P; Davies, Christine A; Turner, Daniel; Bracken, Richard M

    2015-11-01

    This study investigated the relationships of self-reported physical activity levels and cardiorespiratory fitness in 81 males to assess which measurement is the greatest indicator of cardiometabolic risk. Physical activity levels were determined by the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire tool and cardiorespiratory fitness assessed using the Chester Step Test. Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the QRISK2, Framingham Lipids, Framingham body mass index and Joint British Societies' Guidelines-2 equations, and type 2 diabetes mellitus risk calculated using QDiabetes, Leicester Risk Assessment, Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and Cambridge Risk Score models. Categorising employees by cardiorespiratory fitness categories ('Excellent/Good' vs 'Average/Below Average') identified more differences in cardiometabolic risk factor (body mass index, waist circumference, total cholesterol, total cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein ratio, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, HbA(1c)) scores than physical activity (waist circumference only). Cardiorespiratory fitness levels also demonstrated differences in all four type 2 diabetes mellitus risk prediction models and both the QRISK2 and Joint British Societies' Guidelines-2 cardiovascular disease equations. Furthermore, significant negative correlations (p < 0.001) were observed between individual cardiorespiratory fitness values and estimated risk in all prediction models. In conclusion, from this preliminary observational study, cardiorespiratory fitness levels reveal a greater number of associations with markers of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes mellitus compared to physical activity determined by the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire tool.

  12. Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates

    PubMed Central

    Wachuła, Ewa; Szabłowska-Siwik, Sylwia; Boratyn-Nowicka, Agnieszka; Czyżewski, Damian

    2016-01-01

    From February 2015, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening entered the armamentarium of diagnostic tools broadly available to individuals at high-risk of developing lung cancer. While a huge number of pulmonary nodules are identified, only a small fraction turns out to be early lung cancers. The majority of them constitute a variety of benign lesions. Although it entails a burden of the diagnostic work-up, the undisputable benefit emerges from: (I) lung cancer diagnosis at earlier stages (stage shift); (II) additional findings enabling the implementation of a preventive action beyond the realm of thoracic oncology. This review presents how to utilize the risk factors from distinct categories such as epidemiology, radiology and biomarkers to target the fraction of population, which may benefit most from the introduced screening modality. PMID:27195269

  13. Risk factors predict post-traumatic stress disorder differently in men and women

    PubMed Central

    Christiansen, Dorte M; Elklit, Ask

    2008-01-01

    Background About twice as many women as men develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), even though men as a group are exposed to more traumatic events. Exposure to different trauma types does not sufficiently explain why women are more vulnerable. Methods The present work examines the effect of age, previous trauma, negative affectivity (NA), anxiety, depression, persistent dissociation, and social support on PTSD separately in men and women. Subjects were exposed to either a series of explosions in a firework factory near a residential area or to a high school stabbing incident. Results Some gender differences were found in the predictive power of well known risk factors for PTSD. Anxiety predicted PTSD in men, but not in women, whereas the opposite was found for depression. Dissociation was a better predictor for PTSD in women than in men in the explosion sample but not in the stabbing sample. Initially, NA predicted PTSD better in women than men in the explosion sample, but when compared only to other significant risk factors, it significantly predicted PTSD for both men and women in both studies. Previous traumatic events and age did not significantly predict PTSD in either gender. Conclusion Gender differences in the predictive value of social support on PTSD appear to be very complex, and no clear conclusions can be made based on the two studies included in this article. PMID:19017412

  14. Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with mental, substance use, and personality disorders. The scheme may be distinguished from other violence risk instruments because of its inclusion of 20 dynamic factors that are rated in terms of both vulnerability and strength. This study examined the reliability and validity of START assessments in predicting inpatient aggression. Research assistants completed START assessments for 120 male forensic psychiatric patients through review of hospital files. They additionally completed Historical-Clinical-Risk Management – 20 (HCR-20) and the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) assessments. Outcome data was coded from hospital files for a 12-month follow-up period using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). START assessments evidenced excellent interrater reliability and demonstrated both predictive and incremental validity over the HCR-20 Historical subscale scores and PCL:SV total scores. Overall, results support the reliability and validity of START assessments, and use of the structured professional judgment approach more broadly, as well as the value of using dynamic risk and protective factors to assess violence risk. PMID:22250595

  15. Incidence and predictive risk factors of postoperative sepsis in orthopedic trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Lakomkin, Nikita; Sathiyakumar, Vasanth; Wick, Brandon; Shen, Michelle S; Jahangir, A Alex; Mir, Hassan; Obremskey, William T; Dodd, Ashley C; Sethi, Manish K

    2017-06-01

    Postoperative sepsis is associated with high mortality and the national costs of septicemia exceed those of any other diagnosis. While numerous studies in the basic orthopedic science literature suggest that traumatic injuries facilitate the development of sepsis, it is currently unclear whether orthopedic trauma patients are at increased risk. The purpose of this study was thus to assess the incidence of sepsis and determine the risk factors that significantly predicted septicemia following orthopedic trauma surgery. 56,336 orthopedic trauma patients treated between 2006 and 2013 were identified in the ACS-NSQIP database. Documentation of postoperative sepsis/septic shock, demographics, surgical variables, and preoperative comorbidities was collected. Chi-squared analyses were used to assess differences in the rates of sepsis between trauma and nontrauma groups. Binary multivariable regressions identified risk factors that significantly predicted the development of postoperative septicemia in orthopedic trauma patients. There was a significant difference in the overall rates of both sepsis and septic shock between orthopedic trauma (1.6%) and nontrauma (0.5%) patients (p < 0.001). For orthopedic trauma patients, ventilator use (OR = 15.1, p = 0.002), history of pain at rest (OR = 2.8, p = 0.036), and prior sepsis (OR = 2.6, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with septicemia. Statistically predictive, modifiable comorbidities included hypertension (OR = 2.1, p = 0.003) and the use of corticosteroids (OR = 2.1, p = 0.016). There is a significantly greater incidence of postoperative sepsis in the trauma cohort. Clinicians should be aware of these predictive characteristics, may seek to counsel at-risk patients, and should consider addressing modifiable risk factors such as hypertension and corticosteroid use preoperatively. Level of evidence Level III.

  16. Multiple risk factors predict recurrence of major depressive disorder in women

    PubMed Central

    van Loo, Hanna M.; Aggen, Steven H.; Gardner, Charles O.; Kendler, Kenneth S.

    2015-01-01

    Background It is difficult to predict recurrence of depressive episodes in patients with major depression (MD): evidence for many risk factors is inconsistent and general prediction algorithms are lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for recurrence of depressive episodes in women using improved methodology. Methods We used prospective data from a general population sample of female twins with a last-year MD episode (n=194). A rich set of baseline predictors was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards regression subject to elastic net regularization to find a model predicting recurrence of depressive episodes. Prediction accuracy of the model was assessed in an independent test sample (n=133), which was limited by the unavailability of a number of key predictors. Results A wide variety of risk factors predicted recurrence of depressive episodes in women: depressive and anxiety symptoms during the index episode, the level of symptoms at the moment of interview, psychiatric and family history, early and recent adverse life events, being unmarried, and problems with friends and finances. Kaplan Meier estimated survival curves showed that the model differentiated between patients at higher and lower risk for recurrence; estimated areas under the curve were in the range of 0.61-0.79. Limitations Despite our rich set of predictors, certain potentially relevant variables were not available, such as biological measures, chronic somatic diseases, and treatment status. Conclusions Recurrence of episodes of MD in women is highly multifactorial. Future studies should take this into account for the development of clinically useful prediction algorithms. PMID:25881281

  17. Predictive Mapping of Human Risk for West Nile Virus (WNV) Based on Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Rochlin, Ilia; Turbow, David; Gomez, Frank; Ninivaggi, Dominick V.; Campbell, Scott R.

    2011-01-01

    A West Nile virus (WNV) human risk map was developed for Suffolk County, New York utilizing a case-control approach to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000 and 2004 revealed that higher proportion of population with college education, increased habitat fragmentation, and proximity to WNV positive mosquito pools were strongly associated with WNV human risk. Similar to previous investigations from north-central US, this study identified middle class suburban neighborhoods as the areas with the highest WNV human risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factors in the 2000–2004 logistic regression model generating WNV human risk map. In 2005–2010, 41 out of 46 (89%) of WNV human cases occurred either inside of (30 cases) or in close proximity (11 cases) to the WNV high risk areas predicted by the 2000–2004 model. The novel approach employed by this study may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases. PMID:21853103

  18. Predictive mapping of human risk for West Nile virus (WNV) based on environmental and socioeconomic factors.

    PubMed

    Rochlin, Ilia; Turbow, David; Gomez, Frank; Ninivaggi, Dominick V; Campbell, Scott R

    2011-01-01

    A West Nile virus (WNV) human risk map was developed for Suffolk County, New York utilizing a case-control approach to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000 and 2004 revealed that higher proportion of population with college education, increased habitat fragmentation, and proximity to WNV positive mosquito pools were strongly associated with WNV human risk. Similar to previous investigations from north-central US, this study identified middle class suburban neighborhoods as the areas with the highest WNV human risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factors in the 2000-2004 logistic regression model generating WNV human risk map. In 2005-2010, 41 out of 46 (89%) of WNV human cases occurred either inside of (30 cases) or in close proximity (11 cases) to the WNV high risk areas predicted by the 2000-2004 model. The novel approach employed by this study may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases.

  19. Simple risk factors to predict urgent endoscopy in nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding pre-endoscopically

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianzong; Hu, Duanming; Tang, Wen; Hu, Chuanyin; Lu, Qin; Li, Juan; Zhu, Jianhong; Xu, Liming; Sui, Zhenyu; Qian, Mingjie; Wang, Shaofeng; Yin, Guojian

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The goal of this study is to evaluate how to predict high-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) pre-endoscopically. A total of 569 NVUGIB patients between Match 2011 and January 2015 were retrospectively studied. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were statistically analyzed. The severity of NVUGIB was based on high-risk NVUGIB (Forrest I–IIb), and low-risk NVUGIB (Forrest IIc and III). By logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic curve, simple risk score systems were derived which predicted patients’ risks of potentially needing endoscopic intervention to control bleeding. Risk score systems combined of patients’ serum hemoglobin (Hb) ≤75 g/L, red hematemesis, red stool, shock, and blood urine nitrogen ≥8.5 mmol/L within 24 hours after admission were derived. As for each one of these clinical signs, the relatively high specificity was 97.9% for shock, 96.4% for red stool, 85.5% for red hematemesis, 76.7% for Hb ≤75 g/L, and the sensitivity was 50.8% for red hematemesis, 47.5% for Hb ≤75 g/L, 14.2% for red stool, and 10.9% for shock. When these 5 clinical signs were presented as a risk score system, the highest area of receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.746, with sensitivity 0.675 and specificity 0.733, which discriminated well with high-risk NVUGIB. These simple risk factors identified patients with high-risk NVUGIB of needing treatment to manage their bleeding pre-endoscopically. Further validation in the clinic was required. PMID:27367977

  20. Suicide risk among prisoners in French Guiana: prevalence and predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Ayhan, Gülen; Arnal, Romain; Basurko, Célia; About, Vincent; Pastre, Agathe; Pinganaud, Eric; Sins, Dominique; Jehel, Louis; Falissard, Bruno; Nacher, Mathieu

    2017-05-02

    Suicide rates in prison are high and their risk factors are incompletely understood. The objective of the present study is to measure the risk of suicide and its predictors in the only prison of multicultural French Guiana. All new prisoners arriving between September 2013 and December 2014 were included. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) was used and socio-demographic data was collected. In order to identify the predictors of suicide risk multivariate logistic regression was used. Of the 707 prisoners included 13.2% had a suicidal risk, 14.0% of whom had a high risk, 15.1% a moderate risk and 41.9% a low risk. Predictive factors were depression (OR 7.44, 95% CI: 3.50-15.87), dysthymia (OR 4.22, 95% CI: 1.34-13.36), panic disorder (OR 3.47, 95% CI: 1.33-8.99), general anxiety disorder (GAD) (OR 2.19, 95% CI: 1.13-4.22), men having been abused during childhood (OR 21.01, 95%, CI: 3.26-135.48), having been sentenced for sexual assault (OR 7.12, 95% CI: 1.98-25.99) and smoking (OR 2.93, 95%, CI 1.30-6.63). The suicide risk was lower than in mainland France, possibly reflecting the differences in the social stigma attached to incarceration because of migrant populations and the importance and trivialization of drug trafficking among detainees. However, there were no differences between nationalities. The results reemphasize the importance of promptly identifying and treating psychiatric disorders, which were the main suicide risk factors.

  1. Risk Factor and Prediction Modeling for Sudden Cardiac Death in Women with Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Deo, Rajat; Vittinghoff, Eric; Lin, Feng; Tseng, Zian H.; Hulley, Stephen B.; Shlipak, Michael G.

    2012-01-01

    Background The risk of sudden cardiac death and the assessment of risk factors in prediction models have not been assessed in women with coronary artery disease (CAD). We sought to evaluate sudden cardiac death (SCD) incidence, risk factors and their predictive accuracy among a population of women with CAD. Methods The Hormone and Estrogen Replacement Study (HERS) evaluated the effects of hormone replacement therapy on cardiovascular events among 2,763 postmenopausal women with CAD. SCD was defined as death from cardiac origin that occurred within 1 hour of symptom onset. The associations between candidate predictor variables and SCD were evaluated in a Cox proportional hazards model. The C-index was used to compare the predictive value of the clinical risk factors with left ventricular ejection fraction alone and in combination. The net reclassification improvement (NRI) was also computed. Results Over a mean follow-up of 6.8 years, SCD comprised 136 of the 254 cardiac deaths. The annual SCD event rate was 0.79% (95% CI, 0.67–0.94%). The following variables were independently associated with SCD in the multivariate model: myocardial infarction, heart failure, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <40ml/min/1.73m2, atrial fibrillation, physical inactivity and diabetes. The incidences of SCD among women with 0 (n=683), 1 (n=1224), 2 (n=610), and 3 plus (n=246) risk factors at baseline were 0.3, 0.5, 1.2 and 2.9% per year, respectively. The combination of clinical risk factors and LVEF (C-index 0.681) were better predictors of SCD than LVEF alone (C-index 0.600) and resulted in a NRI of 0.20 (p<0.001). Conclusions SCD comprised the majority of cardiac deaths among postmenopausal women with CAD. Independent predictors of SCD including myocardial infarction, heart failure, eGFR <40ml/min/1.73m2, atrial fibrillation, physical inactivity and diabetes improved SCD prediction when used in addition to LVEF. PMID:21788534

  2. Diabetes Risk Factors, Diabetes Risk Algorithms, and the Prediction of Future Frailty: The Whitehall II Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Bouillon, Kim; Kivimäki, Mika; Hamer, Mark; Shipley, Martin J.; Akbaraly, Tasnime N.; Tabak, Adam; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Batty, G. David

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine whether established diabetes risk factors and diabetes risk algorithms are associated with future frailty. Design Prospective cohort study. Risk algorithms at baseline (1997–1999) were the Framingham Offspring, Cambridge, and Finnish diabetes risk scores. Setting Civil service departments in London, United Kingdom. Participants There were 2707 participants (72% men) aged 45 to 69 years at baseline assessment and free of diabetes. Measurements Risk factors (age, sex, family history of diabetes, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive and corticosteroid treatments, history of high blood glucose, smoking status, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fasting glucose, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides) were used to construct the risk algorithms. Frailty, assessed during a resurvey in 2007–2009, was denoted by the presence of 3 or more of the following indicators: self-reported exhaustion, low physical activity, slow walking speed, low grip strength, and weight loss; “prefrailty” was defined as having 2 or fewer of these indicators. Results After a mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 2.8% of the sample was classified as frail and 37.5% as prefrail. Increased age, being female, stopping smoking, low physical activity, and not having a daily consumption of fruits and vegetables were each associated with frailty or prefrailty. The Cambridge and Finnish diabetes risk scores were associated with frailty/prefrailty with odds ratios per 1 SD increase (disadvantage) in score of 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.27) and 1.27 (1.17–1.37), respectively. Conclusion Selected diabetes risk factors and risk scores are associated with subsequent frailty. Risk scores may have utility for frailty prediction in clinical practice. PMID:24103860

  3. Clinical factors predicting bacteremia in low-risk febrile neutropenia after anti-cancer chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Ha, Young Eun; Song, Jae-Hoon; Kang, Won Ki; Peck, Kyong Ran; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Kang, Cheol-In; Joung, Mi-Kyong; Joo, Eun-Jeong; Shon, Kyung Mok

    2011-11-01

    Bacteremia is an important clinical condition in febrile neutropenia that can cause clinical failure of antimicrobial therapy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical factors predictive of bacteremia in low-risk febrile neutropenia at initial patient evaluation. We performed a retrospective cohort study in a university hospital in Seoul, Korea, between May 1995 and May 2007. Patients who met the criteria of low-risk febrile neutropenia at the time of visit to emergency department after anti-cancer chemotherapy were included in the analysis. During the study period, 102 episodes of bacteremia were documented among the 993 episodes of low-risk febrile neutropenia. Single gram-negative bacteremia was most frequent. In multivariate regression analysis, initial body temperature ≥39°C, initial hypotension, presence of clinical sites of infection, presence of central venous catheter, initial absolute neutrophil count <50/mm(3), and the CRP ≥10 mg/dL were statistically significant predictors for bacteremia. A scoring system using these variables was derived and the likelihood of bacteremia was well correlated with the score points with AUC under ROC curve of 0.785. Patients with low score points had low rate of bacteremia, thus, would be candidates for outpatient-based or oral antibiotic therapy. We identified major clinical factors that can predict bacteremia in low-risk febrile neutropenia.

  4. How do static and dynamic risk factors work together to predict violent behaviour among offenders with an intellectual disability?

    PubMed

    Lofthouse, R E; Totsika, V; Hastings, R P; Lindsay, W R; Hogue, T E; Taylor, J L

    2014-02-01

    Research on risk assessment with offenders with an intellectual disability (ID) has largely focused on estimating the predictive accuracy of static or dynamic risk assessments, or a comparison of the two approaches. The aim of this study was to explore how static and dynamic risk variables may 'work together' to predict violent behaviour. Data from 212 offenders with an ID were analysed. Risk assessment tools included one static measure (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide), and two dynamic measures (Emotional Problems Scale and the Short Dynamic Risk Scale). Six-month concurrent prediction data on violent behaviour were collected. A structured methodology was employed to explore putative relationships between static and dynamic factors. Static risk factors temporally preceded dynamic ones, and were shown to dominate both dynamic measures, while there was a non-zero relationship between the static and the two dynamic measures. According to Kraemer et al., these findings suggest that dynamic risk factors function as proxy risk factors for static risk. Dynamic and static risk factors appear to capture elements of the same underlying risk associated with violent behaviour in individuals with an ID. This is the first study to empirically explore risk interrelationships in the forensic ID field. We discuss the importance of the contribution of dynamic variables in the prediction and management of risk. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Intellectual Disability Research © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, MENCAP & IASSIDD.

  5. [Apnoea in infants with bronchiolitis: Incidence and risk factors for a prediction model].

    PubMed

    Ramos-Fernández, José Miguel; Moreno-Pérez, David; Gutiérrez-Bedmar, Mario; Ramírez-Álvarez, María; Martínez García, Yasmina; Artacho-González, Lourdes; Urda-Cardona, Antonio

    2017-05-04

    The presence of apnoea in acute bronchiolitis (AB) varies between 1.2% and 28.8%, depending on the series, and is one of its most fearsome complications. The aim of this study is to determine the incidence of apnoea in hospitalised patients diagnosed with AB, and to define their associated risk factors in order to construct a prediction model. A retrospective observational study of patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in the last 5 years with a diagnosis of AB, according to the classic criteria. Data was collected on the frequency of apnoea and related clinical variables to find risk factors in a binary logistic regression model for the prediction of apnoea. A ROC curve was developed with the model. Apnoea was recorded during the admission of 53 (4.4%) patients out of a total 1,197 cases found. The risk factors included in the equation were: Female (OR 0.6, 95% CI: 0.27-1.37), Caesarean delivery (OR: 3.44, 95% CI: 1.5-7.7), Postmenstrual age ≤43 weeks (OR: 6.62, 95% CI: 2.38-18.7), Fever (OR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.09-1.97), Low birth weight (OR: 5.93, 95% CI: 2.23-7.67), Apnoea observed by caregivers before admission (OR: 5.93, 95% CI: 2.64-13.3), and severe bacterial infection (OR: 3.98, 95% CI: 1.68-9.46). The optimal sensitivity and specificity of the model in the ROC curve was 0.842 and 0.846, respectively (P<.001). The incidence of apnoea during admission was 4.4 per 100 admissions of AB and year. The estimated prediction model equation may be of help to the clinician in order to classify patients with increased risk of apnoea during admission due to AB. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  6. Risk Factors Predicting Infectious Lactational Mastitis: Decision Tree Approach versus Logistic Regression Analysis.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Leónides; Mediano, Pilar; García, Ricardo; Rodríguez, Juan M; Marín, María

    2016-09-01

    Objectives Lactational mastitis frequently leads to a premature abandonment of breastfeeding; its development has been associated with several risk factors. This study aims to use a decision tree (DT) approach to establish the main risk factors involved in mastitis and to compare its performance for predicting this condition with a stepwise logistic regression (LR) model. Methods Data from 368 cases (breastfeeding women with mastitis) and 148 controls were collected by a questionnaire about risk factors related to medical history of mother and infant, pregnancy, delivery, postpartum, and breastfeeding practices. The performance of the DT and LR analyses was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of both models were calculated. Results Cracked nipples, antibiotics and antifungal drugs during breastfeeding, infant age, breast pumps, familial history of mastitis and throat infection were significant risk factors associated with mastitis in both analyses. Bottle-feeding and milk supply were related to mastitis for certain subgroups in the DT model. The areas under the ROC curves were similar for LR and DT models (0.870 and 0.835, respectively). The LR model had better classification accuracy and sensitivity than the DT model, but the last one presented better specificity at the optimal threshold of each curve. Conclusions The DT and LR models constitute useful and complementary analytical tools to assess the risk of lactational infectious mastitis. The DT approach identifies high-risk subpopulations that need specific mastitis prevention programs and, therefore, it could be used to make the most of public health resources.

  7. Health-risk behaviors among a sample of US pre- adolescents: Types, frequency, and predictive factors

    PubMed Central

    Riesch, Susan K.; Kedrowski, Karen; Brown, Roger L.; Temkin, Barbara Myers; Wang, Kevin; Henriques, Jeffrey; Jacobson, Gloria; Giustino-Kluba, Nina

    2012-01-01

    Background Children as young as 10 years old report curiosity and participation in health-risk behaviors, yet most studies focus upon adolescent samples. Objective To document the types and frequencies of health risk behavior among pre-adolescents and to examine the child, family, and environment factors that predict them. Method A sample of 297 pre-adolescents (mean age = 10.5, SD = 0.6) from two Midwestern US cities and their parents (child-parent dyads) provided data about demographic characteristics, health risk behavior participation, child self-esteem, child pubertal development, child and adult perception of their neighborhood, and parent monitoring. Their participation was at intake to a 5-year clustered randomized controlled trial. Results Pre-adolescents participated in an average of 3.7 health-risk behaviors (SD = 2.0), primarily those that lead to unintentional (helmet and seatbelt use) and intentional (feeling unsafe, having something stolen, and physical fighting) injury. Factors predictive of unintentional injury risk behavior were self-esteem, pubertal development, parent monitoring, and parent perception of the neighborhood environment. Boys were 1.8 times less likely than girls to use helmets and seatbelts. Pre-adolescents whose parents were not partnered were 2.8 times more likely than pre-adolescents whose parents were partnered to report intentional risk behavior. Recommendations These data demonstrate trends that cannot be ignored. We recommend, focused specifically upon boys and non-partnered families, that (a) developmentally-appropriate, appealing prevention messages be developed and delivered for parents and pre-adolescents and community interventions targeting both parent and pre-adolescent together be provided to help them establish and monitor behavioral expectations and (b) organized nursing endorse policy in the US and globally that assures adequate family environments for children. PMID:23177901

  8. School violence in Taiwan: examining how Western risk factors predict school violence in an Asian culture.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ji-Kang; Avi Astor, Ron

    2010-08-01

    The current study explores whether theorized risk factors in Western countries can be used to predict school violence perpetration in an Asian cultural context. The study examines the associations between risk factors and school violence perpetration in Taiwan. Data were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 14,022 students from elementary to high school (Grades 4 to 12) across Taiwan. The analysis reported in this study focuses on only junior high school students (Grades 7 to 9, N = 3,058). The results of a regression analysis show that gender, age, direct victimization, witness victimization, alcohol use, smoking, anger traits, lack of impulse control, attitudes toward violence, poor quality of student-teacher relationships, and involvement with at-risk peers were significantly associated with school violence in Taiwan. The overall results suggest strong similarities in risk factors found in the West and school violence in Taiwan. They therefore point toward using similar strategies developed in the West to enhance students' positive experiences in their personal, family, and school lives to decrease school violence.

  9. Incidence, risk factors and risk prediction of hospital-acquired suspected adverse drug reactions: a prospective cohort of Ugandan inpatients

    PubMed Central

    Kiguba, Ronald; Karamagi, Charles; Bird, Sheila M

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To determine the incidence and risk factors of hospital-acquired suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) among Ugandan inpatients. We also constructed risk scores to predict and qualitatively assess for peculiarities between low-risk and high-risk ADR patients. Methods Prospective cohort of consented adults admitted on medical and gynaecological wards of the 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital. Hospital-acquired suspected ADRs were dichotomised as possible (possible/probable/definite) or not and probable (probable/definite) or not, using the Naranjo scale. Risk scores were generated from coefficients of ADR risk-factor logistic regression models. Results The incidence of possible hospital-acquired suspected ADRs was 25% (194/762, 95% CI: 22% to 29%): 44% (85/194) experienced serious possible ADRs. The risk of probable ADRs was 11% (87/762, 95% CI 9% to 14%): 46% (40/87) had serious probable ADRs. Antibacterials-only (51/194), uterotonics-only (21/194), cardiovascular drugs-only (16/194), antimalarials-only (12/194) and analgesics-only (10/194) were the most frequently implicated. Treatment with six or more conventional medicines during hospitalisation (OR=2.31, 95% CI 1.29 to 4.15) and self-reported herbal medicine use during the 4 weeks preadmission (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.13) were the risk factors for probable hospital-acquired ADRs. Risk factors for possible hospital-acquired ADRs were: treatment with six or more conventional medicines (OR=2.72, 95% CI 1.79 to 4.13), herbal medicine use during the 4 weeks preadmission (OR=1.68, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.43), prior 3 months hospitalisation (OR=1.57, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.26) and being on gynaecological ward (OR=2.16, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.44). More drug classes were implicated among high-risk ADR-patients, with cardiovascular drugs being the most frequently linked to possible ADRs. Conclusions The risk of hospital-acquired suspected ADRs was higher with preadmission herbal medicine use and treatment with

  10. Barriers to Predicting the Mechanisms and Risk Factors of Non-Contact Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Nicholas; Rouhi, Gholamreza

    2010-01-01

    High incidences of non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, frequent requirements for ACL reconstruction, and limited understanding of ACL mechanics have engendered considerable interest in quantifying the ACL loading mechanisms. Although some progress has been made to better understand non-contact ACL injuries, information on how and why non-contact ACL injuries occur is still largely unavailable. In other words, research is yet to yield consensus on injury mechanisms and risk factors. Biomechanics, video analysis, and related study approaches have elucidated to some extent how ACL injuries occur. However, these approaches are limited because they provide estimates, rather than precise measurements of knee - and more specifically ACL - kinematics at the time of injury. These study approaches are also limited in their inability to simultaneously capture many of the contributing factors to injury. This paper aims at elucidating and summarizing the key challenges that confound our understanding in predicting the mechanisms and subsequently identifying risk factors of non-contact ACL injury. This work also appraise the methodological rigor of existing study approaches, review testing protocols employed in published studies, as well as presents a possible coupled approach to better understand injury mechanisms and risk factors of non-contact ACL injury. Three comprehensive electronic databases and hand search of journal papers, covering numerous full text published English articles were utilized to find studies on the association between ACL and injury mechanisms, ACL and risk factors, as well as, ACL and investigative approaches. This review unveils that new research modalities and/or coupled research methods are required to better understand how and why the ACL gets injured. Only by achieving a better understanding of ACL loading mechanisms and the associated contributing factors, one will be able to develop robust prevention strategies and exercise

  11. Beyond Framingham risk factors and coronary calcification: does aortic valve calcification improve risk prediction? The Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

    PubMed

    Kälsch, Hagen; Lehmann, Nils; Mahabadi, Amir A; Bauer, Marcus; Kara, Kaffer; Hüppe, Patricia; Moebus, Susanne; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Dragano, Nico; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

    2014-06-01

    Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is considered a manifestation of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigated whether AVC adds to cardiovascular risk prediction beyond Framingham risk factors and coronary artery calcification (CAC). A total of 3944 subjects from the population based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (59.3±7.7 years; 53% females) were evaluated for coronary events, stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (including all plus CV death) over 9.1±1.9 years. CT scans were performed to quantify AVC. Cox proportional hazards regressions and Harrell's C were used to examine AVC as event predictor in addition to risk factors and CAC. During follow-up, 138 (3.5%) subjects experienced coronary events, 101 (2.6%) had a stroke, and 257 (6.5%) experienced CVD events. In subjects with AVC>0 versus AVC=0 the incidence of coronary events was 8.0% versus 3.0% (p<0.001) and the incidence of CVD events was 13.0% versus 5.7% (p<0.001). The frequency of events increased significantly with increasing AVC scores (p<0.001). After adjustment for Framingham risk factors, high AVC scores (3rd tertile) remained independently associated with coronary events (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.81) and CVD events (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.58). After further adjustment for CAC score, HRs were attenuated (coronary events 1.55, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.69; CVD events 1.29, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.00). When adding AVC to the model containing traditional risk factors and CAC, Harrell's C indices did not increase for coronary events (from 0.744 to 0.744) or CVD events (from 0.759 to 0.759). AVC is associated with incident coronary and CVD events independent of Framingham risk factors. However, AVC fails to improve cardiovascular event prediction over Framingham risk factors and CAC. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Use of Symptoms and Risk Factors to Predict Acute Otitis Media in Infants

    PubMed Central

    McCormick, David P.; Jennings, Kristofer; Ede, Linda C.; Alvarez-Fernandez, Pedro; Patel, Janak; Chonmaitree, Tasnee

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Infants and children with upper respiratory tract infection (URI) often have concurrent acute otitis media (AOM). Young infants have less specific symptoms than older children. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of symptoms and other risk factors in predicting the presence of AOM in infants. Methods Healthy infants, age ≤ four weeks, were enrolled and followed prospectively for up to age one year. Infants were scheduled for a research visit when their parents noted the onset of symptoms. At each URI visit, parents first reported the severity of symptoms. An investigator then diagnosed the presence or absence of concurrent AOM. Risk factors and symptom scores for infants with and without AOM were studied. Results Infants (N=193, mean age at first URI 3.9 ± 2.5 months) experienced 360 URI episodes and 63 AOM events. Symptoms consisting of fever, earache, poor feeding, restless sleep, and irritability together (ETG-5) were statistically associated with the prediction of AOM (P=0.006). A multiple variable statistical model (J-Score) that included day care attendance, age, severity of cough and earache best predicted AOM (P < 0.001), with 95% specificity. Both ETG-5 and J-score yielded relatively low sensitivity for AOM prediction. Conclusions : In infants with URI in the first year of life, severity of symptoms was significantly associated with concurrent AOM. Daycare attendance, presence and severity of earache and cough added to better correlation. These observations may have clinical application in identification of infants at risk for AOM. PMID:26810291

  13. Fracture risk prediction using BMD and clinical risk factors in early postmenopausal women: sensitivity of the WHO FRAX tool.

    PubMed

    Trémollieres, Florence A; Pouillès, Jean-Michel; Drewniak, Nicolas; Laparra, Jacques; Ribot, Claude A; Dargent-Molina, Patricia

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this prospective study was (1) to identify significant and independent clinical risk factors (CRFs) for major osteoporotic (OP) fracture among peri- and early postmenopausal women, (2) to assess, in this population, the discriminatory capacity of FRAX and bone mineral density (BMD) for the identification of women at high risk of fracture, and (3) to assess whether adding risk factors to either FRAX or BMD would improve discriminatory capacity. The study population included 2651 peri- and early postmenopausal women [mean age (+/- SD): 54 +/- 4 years] with a mean follow-up period of 13.4 years (+/-1.4 years). At baseline, a large set of CRFs was recorded, and vertebral BMD was measured (Lunar, DPX) in all women. Femoral neck BMD also was measured in 1399 women in addition to spine BMD. Women with current or past OP treatment for more than 3 months at baseline (n = 454) were excluded from the analyses. Over the follow-up period, 415 women sustained a first low-energy fracture, including 145 major OP fractures (108 wrist, 44 spine, 20 proximal humerus, and 13 hip). In Cox multivariate regression models, only 3 CRFs were significant predictors of a major OP fracture independent of BMD and age: a personal history of fracture, three or more pregnancies, and current postmenopausal hormone therapy. In the subsample of women who had a hip BMD measurement and who were not receiving OP therapy (including hormone-replacement therapy) at baseline, mean FRAX value was 3.8% (+/-2.4%). The overall discriminative value for fracture, as measured by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), was equal to 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.69] and 0.66 (95% CI 0.60-0.73), respectively, for FRAX and hip BMD. Sensitivity of both tools was low (ie, around 50% for 30% of the women classified as the highest risk). Adding parity to the predictive model including FRAX or using a simple risk score based on the best predictive model in our

  14. Predicting Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence Among Post-9/11 College Student Veterans.

    PubMed

    Klaw, Elena L; Demers, Anne L; Da Silva, Nancy

    2016-02-01

    The current conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq present unique risk factors for military personnel that increase the likelihood of psychological distress and concomitant consequences related to trauma. Several studies have found that the stress brought about by financial difficulties, unemployment, and the need to renegotiate roles and responsibilities with spouses following discharge increases the likelihood of relationship strain and even intimate partner violence in the veteran population. This study was undertaken to determine the challenges related to maintaining healthy relationships for college student veterans who have served in the armed forces since September 11, 2001. Psychological distress, substance use, and hypermasculine attitudes were explored as risk factors for intimate violence. Social support was found to be a protective buffer against psychological aggression. However, approximately a third of college student veterans reported low social support along with symptoms of distress, placing them at elevated risk of partner abuse. The current article explores models for predicting risk of perpetrating aggression in college student veterans and concludes that culturally tailored programs and services are needed.

  15. Risk Factors Predicting Colorectal Cancer Recurrence Following Initial Treatment: A 5-year Cohort Study

    PubMed

    Zare-Bandamiri, Mohammad; Fararouei, Mohammad; Zohourinia, Shadi; Daneshi, Nima; Dianatinasab, Mostafa

    2017-09-27

    Purpose: Recurrence is one of the most important factors influencing survival of colorectal cancer patients. Subjects and Methods: In this cohort study, clinical and demographic characteristics of 561 patients with colorectal cancer were collected from 2010 to 2015. Medical records and telephone interviews were used to define the patient’s clinical status including the date of any recurrence during the study period. The multivariate Cox model was used as the main strategy for analyzing data. Results: Some 239 (42.6%) patients experienced cancer recurrence during the 5-year follow-up period. Those with an older age at diagnosis had a higher risk of cancer recurrence than their younger counterparts [Hazard Ratio (HR) >70 y /<50 y= 1.65, P=0.01]. Rectal cancer had a greater risk of disease recurrence compared with other tumor sites [HR colon/ rectum=1.53, P=0.02]. Stage 3 cancer had a higher risk than stage 1 cancer [HR stage 3/ stage 1=4.30, P<0.001], and positive lympho-vascular invasion was also a risk factor [HR yes/ no=2.03, P<0.001]. Finally, tumor size , number of dissected lymph nodes, proportion of positive lymph nodes, perineural invasion and type of treatment did not significantly predict recurrence. Conclusion: Access to enhanced medical services including cancer diagnosis at an early stage and optimal treatment is needed to improve the survival and quality of life of CRC patients. Creative Commons Attribution License

  16. Assessment of the Importance of a New Risk Factor in Prediction Models

    PubMed Central

    Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Mosa Farkhani, Ehsan; Haji-Maghsoudi, Saiedeh

    2016-01-01

    Background: Discovery of new risk factors poses new challenges on how to quantify their added value and importance in risk prediction improvement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to apply different statistics and to quantify the importance of some risk factors in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Patients and Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, 607 patients with AMI, aged more than 25 years were studied. They were admitted to the CCU of Imam Reza hospital in Mashhad, Iran from 2007 to 2012. Health information and death registration systems were used to identify patients and to assess their outcome. At first a model containing all variables was fitted (full model). Importance of variables was compared in terms of standardized regression coefficient and inclusion frequency in bootstrap samples. Then, a series of reduced models were fitted, where in each of them only one of the independent variables was excluded. Models were compared in terms of goodness of fit, accuracy (Cindex, R square), separation of patients into risk groups (SEP), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results: Age was selected as the important factor based on all 7 statistics. Exclusion of age variable decreased C index from 0.75 to 0.68 and R square from 0.25 to 0.15. Duration of hospitalization was important based on 4 statistics. Exclusion of this variable decreased R square from 0.25 to 0.21. While gender was a useful variable in separation of patients into risk groups, its omission did not reduce model likelihood. The opposite was true in the case of using streptokinase during hospitalization. Conclusions: Our results revealed that a variable with high separation ability might not necessarily be useful in terms of goodness of fit. Therefore, importance should be defined carefully based on clinical objectives of the study. PMID:27175299

  17. Prevalence, risk factors and clinical signs predictive for equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction in aged horses.

    PubMed

    McGowan, T W; Pinchbeck, G P; McGowan, C M

    2013-01-01

    Equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) is an ageing-related neurodegenerative disorder. The prevalence and risk factors for PPID using seasonally adjusted basal adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) concentrations in aged horses have not been previously reported. To determine the prevalence, risk factors and clinical signs predictive for PPID in a population of horses aged ≥ 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Owner-reported data was obtained using a postal questionnaire distributed to an equestrian group. A subgroup of surveyed owners were visited and a veterinary physical examination performed on all horses aged ≥ 15 years. Blood samples were analysed for basal plasma alpha melanocyte-stimulating hormone (α-MSH) and ACTH concentrations, routine haematology and selected biochemistry. Aged horses with elevations above seasonally adjusted cut-off values for basal plasma ACTH were considered positive for PPID. Positive horses were compared with their aged counterparts to determine risk factors and clinical signs associated with PPID. Pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction was prevalent in aged horses (21.2%) despite owners infrequently reporting it as a known or diagnosed disease or disorder. Numerous clinical or historical signs were associated with an increased risk of PPID in the univariable model, but only age (odds ratio (OR) 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.25, P<0.001) and owner-reported history of hirsutism (OR 7.80; 95% CI 3.67-16.57, P<0.001) remained in the final multivariable model. There were no routine haematological or biochemical variables supportive of a diagnosis of PPID. Pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction occurs commonly in aged horses despite under-recognition by owners. The increased risk of PPID with age supports that this is an ageing associated condition. Aged horses with clinical or historical signs consistent with PPID, especially owner-reported hirsutism (delayed shedding and/or long hair coat), should be tested and

  18. Risk factors predictive of right ventricular failure after left ventricular assist device implantation.

    PubMed

    Drakos, Stavros G; Janicki, Lindsay; Horne, Benjamin D; Kfoury, Abdallah G; Reid, Bruce B; Clayson, Stephen; Horton, Kenneth; Haddad, Francois; Li, Dean Y; Renlund, Dale G; Fisher, Patrick W

    2010-04-01

    Right ventricular failure (RVF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation appears to be associated with increased mortality. However, the determination of which patients are at greater risk of developing postoperative RVF remains controversial and relatively unknown. We sought to determine the preoperative risk factors for the development of RVF after LVAD implantation. The data were obtained for 175 consecutive patients who had received an LVAD. RVF was defined by the need for inhaled nitric oxide for >/=48 hours or intravenous inotropes for >14 days and/or right ventricular assist device implantation. An RVF risk score was developed from the beta coefficients of the independent variables from a multivariate logistic regression model predicting RVF. Destination therapy (DT) was identified as the indication for LVAD implantation in 42% of our patients. RVF after LVAD occurred in 44% of patients (n = 77). The mortality rates for patients with RVF were significantly greater at 30, 180, and 365 days after implantation compared to patients with no RVF. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, 3 preoperative factors were significantly associated with RVF after LVAD implantation: (1) a preoperative need for intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation, (2) increased pulmonary vascular resistance, and (3) DT. The developed RVF risk score effectively stratified the risk of RV failure and death after LVAD implantation. In conclusion, given the progressively growing need for DT, the developed RVF risk score, derived from a population with a large percentage of DT patients, might lead to improved patient selection and help stratify patients who could potentially benefit from early right ventricular assist device implantation. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of risk factors to predict communicating hydrocephalus following gamma knife radiosurgery for intracranial schwannoma.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seunghoon; Seo, Seong-Wook; Hwang, Juyoung; Seol, Ho Jun; Nam, Do-Hyun; Lee, Jung-Il; Kong, Doo-Sik

    2016-12-01

    Communicating hydrocephalus (HCP) in vestibular schwannomas (VS) after gamma knife radiosurgery (GKRS) has been reported in the literature. However, little information about its incidence and risk factors after GKRS for intracranial schwannomas is yet available. The objective of this study was to identify the incidence and risk factors for developing communicating HCP after GKRS for intracranial schwannomas. We retrospectively reviewed a total of 702 patients with intracranial schwannomas who were treated with GKRS between January 2002 and December 2015. We investigated patients' age, gender, tumor origin, previous surgery history, tumor volume, marginal radiation dose, and presence of tumor control to identify associations with communicating HCP following GKRS. To make predictive models of communicating HCP, we performed Cox regression analyses and constructed a decision tree for risk factors. In total, 29 of the 702 patients (4.1%) developed communicating HCP following GKRS, which required ventriculo-peritoneal (VP) shunt surgery. Multivariate analyses indicated that age (P = 0.0011), tumor origin (P = 0.0438), and tumor volume (P < 0.0001) were significant predictors of communicating HCP in patients with intracranial schwannoma after GKRS. Using machine-learning methods, we fit an optimal predictive model. We found that developing communicating HCP following GKRS was most likely if the tumor was vestibular origin and had a volume ≥13.65 cm(3) . Communicating HCP is not a rare complication of GKRS for intracranial schwannomas. Under specific conditions, communicating HCP following GKRS is warranted for this patient group, and this patient group should be closely followed up.

  20. Determining the main risk factors and high-risk groups of breast cancer using a predictive model for breast cancer risk assessment in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun-Ok; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; You, Chunghee; Lee, Dong-Suk; Han, Wonshik; Choe, Kuk-Jin; Noh, Dong-Young

    2004-01-01

    This study was aimed at developing a predictive model for assessing the breast cancer risk of Korean women under the assumption of differences in the risk factors between Westerners and Koreans. The cohort comprised 384 breast cancer patients and 2 control groups: one comprising 166 hospitalized patients and the other comprising 104 nurses and teachers. Two initial models were produced by comparing cases and the 2 control groups, and the final equations were established by selecting highly significant variables of the initial models to test the accuracy of the models in terms of disease probability and predictability. Both the initial models and the final disease-probability models were confirmed to exhibit high degrees of accuracy and predictability. Major risk factors determined by comparing the patients with hospitalized controls were a family history, menstrual regularity, total menstrual duration, age at first full-term pregnancy, and duration of breastfeeding. Major risk factors determined by comparing patients with nurse/teacher controls were age, education level, menstrual regularity, drinking status, and smoking status. The predictive model developed here shows that risk factors for breast cancer differ between Korean and Western subjects in the aspect of breastfeeding behavior. However, identifying the relationship between genetic susceptibility and breast cancer will require further studies with larger samples. In a model with nurse/teacher controls, drinking and higher education were found to be protective variables, whereas smoking was a risk factor. Hence the predictive model in this group could not be generalized to the Korean population; instead, breast cancer incidence needs to be compared among nurses and teachers in a nurse-and-teacher cohort.

  1. Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

    2010-09-01

    Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models

  2. Battered Women's Perceptions of Risk Versus Risk Factors and Instruments in Predicting Repeat Reassault

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heckert, D. Alex; Gondolf, Edward W.

    2004-01-01

    This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial…

  3. Battered Women's Perceptions of Risk Versus Risk Factors and Instruments in Predicting Repeat Reassault

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heckert, D. Alex; Gondolf, Edward W.

    2004-01-01

    This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial…

  4. Traditional risk factors are predictive on segmental localization of coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Tacoy, Gulten; Balcioglu, Akif Serhat; Akinci, Sinan; Erdem, Güliz; Kocaman, Sinan Altan; Timurkaynak, Timur; Cengel, Atiye

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between established risk factors and segmental localization of coronary artery disease. A total of 2760 patients who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled into the study. Coronary angiographic segmental evaluation was performed according to the scheme of American Heart Association. Patients were classified into 2 groups (group 1: normal coronary artery segments, group 2: coronary artery segments with coronary artery disease). Smoking was highly related with left main coronary artery disease (odds ratio = 7.5; P = .005). Diabetes mellitus and male sex increased the risk of atherosclerosis in all coronary vasculature (odds ratio = 2.7-2.2; P < .001-P < .001). Hypertension was correlated with distal coronary artery (odds ratio = 1.4; P < .001) and family history with distal circumflex lesions (odds ratio = 4.5; P = .005) High triglyceride levels were associated with right coronary artery lesions (odds ratio = 1.00; P =.03). The effect of advanced age was small (odds ratio = 1.08; P < .001). Risk factors may be predictive for segmental localization.

  5. Lifetime cumulative risk factors predict cardiovascular disease mortality in a 50-year follow-up study in Finland.

    PubMed

    Reinikainen, Jaakko; Laatikainen, Tiina; Karvanen, Juha; Tolonen, Hanna

    2015-02-01

    Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking are known predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Less is known about the effect of lifetime accumulation and changes of risk factors over time as predictors of CVD mortality, especially in very long follow-up studies. Data from the Finnish cohorts of the Seven Countries Study were used. The baseline examination was in 1959 and seven re-examinations were carried out at approximately 5-year intervals. Cohorts were followed up for mortality until the end of 2011. Time-dependent Cox models with regular time-updated risk factors, time-dependent averages of risk factors and latest changes in risk factors, using smoothing splines to discover nonlinear effects, were used to analyse the predictive effect of risk factors for CVD mortality. A model using cumulative risk factors, modelled as the individual-level averages of several risk factor measurements over time, predicted CVD mortality better than a model using the most recent measurement information. This difference seemed to be most prominent for systolic blood pressure. U-shaped effects of the original predictors can be explained by partitioning a risk factor effect between the recent level and the change trajectory. The change in body mass index predicted the risk although body mass index itself did not. The lifetime accumulation of risk factors and the observed changes in risk factor levels over time are strong predictors of CVD mortality. It is important to investigate different ways of using the longitudinal risk factor measurements to take full advantage of them. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  6. Performance of genetic risk factors in prediction of trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Yufei; Chen, Ying; Huang, Hanlin; Zhou, Wei; Niu, Yong; Zhang, Mingrong; Bin, Ping; Dong, Haiyan; Jia, Qiang; Huang, Jianxun; Yi, Juan; Liao, Qijun; Li, Haishan; Teng, Yanxia; Zang, Dan; Zhai, Qingfeng; Duan, Huawei; Shen, Juan; He, Jiaxi; Meng, Tao; Sha, Yan; Shen, Meili; Ye, Meng; Jia, Xiaowei; Xiang, Yingping; Huang, Huiping; Wu, Qifeng; Shi, Mingming; Huang, Xianqing; Yang, Huanming; Luo, Longhai; Li, Sai; Li, Lin; Zhao, Jinyang; Li, Laiyu; Wang, Jun; Zheng, Yuxin

    2015-01-01

    Trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome is dose-independent and potentially life threatening disease, which has become one of the serious occupational health issues and requires intensive treatment. To discover the genetic risk factors and evaluate the performance of risk prediction model for the disease, we conducted genomewide association study and replication study with total of 174 cases and 1761 trichloroethylene-tolerant controls. Fifty seven SNPs that exceeded the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) were screened to relate with the disease, among which two independent SNPs were identified, that is rs2857281 at MICA (odds ratio, 11.92; Pmeta = 1.33 × 10−37) and rs2523557 between HLA-B and MICA (odds ratio, 7.33; Pmeta = 8.79 × 10−35). The genetic risk score with these two SNPs explains at least 20.9% of the disease variance and up to 32.5-fold variation in inter-individual risk. Combining of two SNPs as predictors for the disease would have accuracy of 80.73%, the area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) scores was 0.82 with sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 85%, which was considered to have excellent discrimination for the disease, and could be considered for translational application for screening employees before exposure. PMID:26190474

  7. Performance of genetic risk factors in prediction of trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome.

    PubMed

    Dai, Yufei; Chen, Ying; Huang, Hanlin; Zhou, Wei; Niu, Yong; Zhang, Mingrong; Bin, Ping; Dong, Haiyan; Jia, Qiang; Huang, Jianxun; Yi, Juan; Liao, Qijun; Li, Haishan; Teng, Yanxia; Zang, Dan; Zhai, Qingfeng; Duan, Huawei; Shen, Juan; He, Jiaxi; Meng, Tao; Sha, Yan; Shen, Meili; Ye, Meng; Jia, Xiaowei; Xiang, Yingping; Huang, Huiping; Wu, Qifeng; Shi, Mingming; Huang, Xianqing; Yang, Huanming; Luo, Longhai; Li, Sai; Li, Lin; Zhao, Jinyang; Li, Laiyu; Wang, Jun; Zheng, Yuxin

    2015-07-20

    Trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome is dose-independent and potentially life threatening disease, which has become one of the serious occupational health issues and requires intensive treatment. To discover the genetic risk factors and evaluate the performance of risk prediction model for the disease, we conducted genomewide association study and replication study with total of 174 cases and 1761 trichloroethylene-tolerant controls. Fifty seven SNPs that exceeded the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)) were screened to relate with the disease, among which two independent SNPs were identified, that is rs2857281 at MICA (odds ratio, 11.92; P meta = 1.33 × 10(-37)) and rs2523557 between HLA-B and MICA (odds ratio, 7.33; P meta = 8.79 × 10(-35)). The genetic risk score with these two SNPs explains at least 20.9% of the disease variance and up to 32.5-fold variation in inter-individual risk. Combining of two SNPs as predictors for the disease would have accuracy of 80.73%, the area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) scores was 0.82 with sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 85%, which was considered to have excellent discrimination for the disease, and could be considered for translational application for screening employees before exposure.

  8. Risk factors perceived predictive of ISA spread in Chile: applications to decision support.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, L; Antognoli, M; Lara Fica, M; Ibarra, R; Mancilla, J; Sandoval Del Valle, O; Enriquez Sais, R; Perez, A; Aguilar, D; Madrid, E; Bustos, P; Clement, A; Godoy, M G; Johnson, C; Remmenga, M

    2014-11-01

    Aquaculture is anticipated to be a critical element in future solutions to global food shortage. However, diseases can impede industry efficiency and sustainability. Consequently, diseases can and have led to dramatic re-structuring in industry or regulatory practices. The emergence of infectious salmon anemia (ISA) in Chile is one such example. As in other countries, many mitigations were instituted universally, and many incurred considerable costs as they introduced a new layer of coordination of farming activities of marine sites within common geographic areas (termed 'neighborhoods' or 'barrios'). The aggregate response led to a strong reduction in ISA incidence and impact. However, the relative value of individual mitigations is less clear, especially where response policies were universally applied and retrospective analyses are missing 'controls' (i.e., areas where a mitigation was not applied). Further, re-focusing policies around disease prevention following resolution of an outbreak is important to renew sustainable production; though, again, field data to guide this shift in purpose are often lacking. Expert panels can offer timely decision support in the absence of empirical data. We convened a panel of fish health experts to weight risk factors predictive of ISA virus (ISAV) introduction or spread between Atlantic salmon barrios in Chile. Barrios, rather than sites, were the unit of interest because many of the new mitigations operate at this level and few available studies examine their efficacy. Panelists identified barrio processing plant biosecurity, fallowing strategies, adult live fish transfers, fish and site density, smolt quality, hydrographic connection with other neighborhoods, presence of sea lice (Caligus rogercresseyi), and harvest vessel biosecurity as factors with the greatest predictive strength for ISAV virulent genotype ('HPR-deleted') occurrence. Fewer factors were considered predictive of ISAV HPR0 genotype ('HPR0') occurrence

  9. Contributions of Risk and Protective Factors to Prediction of Psychological Symptoms after Traumatic Experiences

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, Eve B.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Field, Nigel P.; Dalenberg, Constance J.; Macia, Kathryn S.; Spain, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Traumatic experiences cause considerable suffering and place a burden on society due to lost productivity, increases in suicidality, violence, criminal behavior, and psychological disorder. The impact of traumatic experiences is complicated because many factors affect individuals’ responses. By employing several methodological improvements, we sought to identify risk factors that would account for a greater proportion of variance in later disorder than prior studies. Method In a sample of 129 traumatically injured hospital patients and family members of injured patients, we studied pre-trauma, time of trauma, and post-trauma psychosocial risk and protective factors hypothesized to influence responses to traumatic experiences and posttraumatic (PT) symptoms (including symptoms of PTSD, depression, negative thinking, and dissociation) two months after trauma. Results The risk factors were all significantly correlated with later PT symptoms, with post-trauma life stress, post-trauma social support, and acute stress symptoms showing the strongest relationships. A hierarchical regression, in which the risk factors were entered in 6 steps based on their occurrence in time, showed the risks accounted for 72% of the variance in later symptoms. Most of the variance in PT symptoms was shared among many risk factors, and pre-trauma and post-trauma risk factors accounted for the most variance. Conclusions Collectively, the risk factors accounted for more variance in later PT symptoms than in previous studies. These risk factors may identify individuals at risk for PT psychological disorders and targets for treatment. PMID:27423351

  10. Is Obesity Predictive of Cardiovascular Dysfunction Independent of Cardiovascular Risk Factors?

    PubMed Central

    DeVallance, Evan; Fournier, Sara B.; Donley, David A.; Bonner, Daniel E.; Lee, Kyuwan; Frisbee, Jefferson C.; Chantler, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Obesity is thought to exert detrimental effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, this relationship is impacted by the co-occurrence of CV risk factors, type II diabetes (T2DM), and overt disease. We examined the relationships between obesity, assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and CV function in 102 subjects without overt CV disease. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently predictive of CV remodeling and functional differences, especially at peak exercise. Methods Brachial (bSBP) and central (cSBP) systolic pressure, carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVcf) augmentation index (AGI) (by SphygmoCor), and carotid remodeling (B-mode ultrasound) were examined at rest. Further, peak exercise cardiac imaging (Doppler ultrasound) was performed to measure the coupling between the heart and arterial system. Results In backward elimination regression models, accounting for CV risk factors, neither BMI nor WC were predictors of carotid thickness or PWVcf; rather age, triglycerides, and hypertension were the main determinants. However, BMI and WC predicted carotid cross-sectional area and lumen diameter. When examining the relationship between body size and SBP, BMI (β=0.32) and WC (β=0.25) were predictors of bSBP (p<0.05), whereas, BMI was the only predictor of cSBP (β=0.22, p<0.05) indicating a differential relationship between cSBP, bSBP and body size. Further, BMI (β=−0.26) and WC (β=−0.27) were independent predictors of AGI (p<0.05). As for resting cardiac diastolic function, WC seemed to be a better predictor than BMI. However, both BMI and WC were inversely and independently related to arterial elastance (net arterial load) and end-systolic elastance (cardiac contractility) at rest and peak exercise. Discussion These findings illustrate that obesity, without T2DM and overt CV disease, and after accounting for CV risk factors, is susceptible to pathophysiological adaptations that may

  11. Is obesity predictive of cardiovascular dysfunction independent of cardiovascular risk factors?

    PubMed

    DeVallance, E; Fournier, S B; Donley, D A; Bonner, D E; Lee, K; Frisbee, J C; Chantler, P D

    2015-02-01

    Obesity is thought to exert detrimental effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, this relationship is impacted by the co-occurrence of CV risk factors, type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and overt disease. We examined the relationships between obesity, assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and CV function in 102 subjects without overt CV disease. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently predictive of CV remodeling and functional differences, especially at peak exercise. Brachial (bSBP) and central (cSBP) systolic pressure, carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVcf) augmentation index (AGI; by SphygmoCor), and carotid remodeling (B-mode ultrasound) were examined at rest. Further, peak exercise cardiac imaging (Doppler ultrasound) was performed to measure the coupling between the heart and arterial system. In backward elimination regression models, accounting for CV risk factors, neither BMI nor WC were predictors of carotid thickness or PWVcf; rather age, triglycerides and hypertension were the main determinants. However, BMI and WC predicted carotid cross-sectional area and lumen diameter. When examining the relationship between body size and SBP, BMI (β=0.32) and WC (β=0.25) were predictors of bSBP (P<0.05), whereas, BMI was the only predictor of cSBP (β=0.22, P<0.05) indicating a differential relationship between cSBP, bSBP and body size. Further, BMI (β=-0.26) and WC (β=-0.27) were independent predictors of AGI (P<0.05). As for resting cardiac diastolic function, WC seemed to be a better predictor than BMI. However, both BMI and WC were inversely and independently related to arterial-elastance (net arterial load) and end-systolic elastance (cardiac contractility) at rest and peak exercise. These findings illustrate that obesity, without T2DM and overt CV disease, and after accounting for CV risk factors, is susceptible to pathophysiological adaptations that may predispose individuals to an increased risk of CV events.

  12. Risk factors predictive of occult cancer detection in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism

    PubMed Central

    Ihaddadene, Ryma; Corsi, Daniel J.; Lazo-Langner, Alejandro; Shivakumar, Sudeep; Zarychanski, Ryan; Tagalakis, Vicky; Solymoss, Susan; Routhier, Nathalie; Douketis, James; Le Gal, Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    Risk factors predictive of occult cancer detection in patients with a first unprovoked symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) are unknown. Cox proportional hazard models and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the effect of specific risk factors on occult cancer detection within 1 year of a diagnosis of unprovoked VTE in patients randomized in the Screening for Occult Malignancy in Patients with Idiopathic Venous Thromboembolism (SOME) trial. A total of 33 (3.9%; 95% CI, 2.8%-5.4%) out of the 854 included patients received a new diagnosis of cancer at 1-year follow-up. Age ≥ 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 3.11; 95% CI, 1.41-6.89; P = .005), previous provoked VTE (HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.19-8.62; P = .022), and current smoker status (HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.24-6.33; P = .014) were associated with occult cancer detection. Age, prior provoked VTE, and smoking status may be important predictors of occult cancer detection in patients with first unprovoked VTE. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00773448. PMID:26817957

  13. [Acute kidney injury after pediatric cardiac surgery: risk factors and outcomes. Proposal for a predictive model].

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Bárbara; Laranjo, Sérgio; Gomes, Inês; Freitas, Isabel; Trigo, Conceição; Fragata, Isabel; Fragata, José; Pinto, Fátima

    2016-02-01

    To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day-18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients' age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  14. Utility of Childhood Glucose Homeostasis Variables in Predicting Adult Diabetes and Related Cardiometabolic Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Quoc Manh; Srinivasan, Sathanur R.; Xu, Ji-Hua; Chen, Wei; Kieltyka, Lyn; Berenson, Gerald S.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study examines the usefulness of childhood glucose homeostasis variables (glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance index [homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance {HOMA-IR}]) in predicting pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes and related cardiometabolic risk factors in adulthood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study consisted of normoglycemic (n = 1,058), pre-diabetic (n = 37), and type 2 diabetic (n = 25) adults aged 19–39 years who were followed on average for 17 years since childhood. RESULTS At least 50% of the individuals who ranked highest (top quintile) in childhood for glucose homeostasis variables maintained their high rank by being above the 60th percentile in adulthood. In a multivariate model, the best predictors of adulthood glucose homeostasis variables were the change in BMI Z score from childhood to adulthood and childhood BMI Z score, followed by the corresponding childhood levels of glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR. Further, children in the top decile versus the rest for insulin and HOMA-IR were 2.85 and 2.55 times, respectively, more likely to develop pre-diabetes; children in the top decile versus the rest for glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR were 3.28, 5.54, and 5.84 times, respectively, more likely to develop diabetes, independent of change in BMI Z score, baseline BMI Z score, and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio. In addition, children with adverse levels (top quintile versus the rest) of glucose homeostasis variables displayed significantly higher prevalences of, among others, hyperglycemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Adverse levels of glucose homeostasis variables in childhood not only persist into adulthood but also predict adult pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes and relate to cardiometabolic risk factors. PMID:20009096

  15. Rs488087 single nucleotide polymorphism as predictive risk factor for pancreatic cancers

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Emmanuelle; Silvy, Françoise; Fina, Fréderic; Bartoli, Marc; Krahn, Martin; Barlesi, Fabrice; Figarella-Branger, Dominique; Iovanna, Juan; Laugier, René; Ouaissi, Mehdi; Lombardo, Dominique; Mas, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a devastating disease progressing asymptomatically until death within months after diagnosis. Defining at-risk populations should promote its earlier diagnosis and hence also avoid its development. Considering the known involvement in pancreatic disease of exon 11 of the bile salt-dependent lipase (BSDL) gene that encodes variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) sequences, we hypothesized upon the existence of a genetic link between predisposition to PC and mutations in VNTR loci. To test this, BSDL VNTR were amplified by touchdown-PCR performed on genomic DNA extracted from cancer tissue or blood samples from a French patient cohort and amplicons were Sanger sequenced. A robust method using probes for droplet digital (dd)-PCR was designed to discriminate the C/C major from C/T or T/T minor genotypes. We report that the c.1719C > T transition (SNP rs488087) present in BSDL VNTR may be a useful marker for defining a population at risk of developing PC (occurrence: 63.90% in the PC versus 27.30% in the control group). The odds ratio of 4.7 for the T allele was larger than those already determined for other SNPs suspected to be predictive of PC. Further studies on tumor pancreatic tissue suggested that a germline T allele may favor Kras G12R/G12D somatic mutations which represent negative prognostic factors associated with reduced survival. We propose that the detection of the T allele in rs488087 SNP should lead to an in-depth follow-up of patients in whom an association with other potential risk factors of pancreatic cancer may be present. PMID:26498142

  16. The Effect of Risk and Resilience Factors on the Prediction of Delinquency in Adolescent Girls.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKnight, Lela Renee'; Loper, Ann Booker

    2002-01-01

    Describes two studies conducted with samples of adolescent girls to determine whether resilience factors could distinguish at risk characteristics as delinquent or non-delinquent. Resiliency was shown to determine delinquency levels. Suggests that intervention programs designed to remediate the effects of risk factors should include components…

  17. Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors predicting low back functional impairment among furniture distribution employees.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Sue A; Allread, W Gary; Burr, Deborah L; Heaney, Catherine; Marras, William S

    2012-02-01

    Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors for low back disorder have been studied extensively however few researchers have examined all three risk factors. The objective of this was to develop a low back disorder risk model in furniture distribution workers using biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors. This was a prospective study with a six month follow-up time. There were 454 subjects at 9 furniture distribution facilities enrolled in the study. Biomechanical exposure was evaluated using the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (2001) lifting threshold limit values for low back injury risk. Psychosocial and individual risk factors were evaluated via questionnaires. Low back health functional status was measured using the lumbar motion monitor. Low back disorder cases were defined as a loss of low back functional performance of -0.14 or more. There were 92 cases of meaningful loss in low back functional performance and 185 non cases. A multivariate logistic regression model included baseline functional performance probability, facility, perceived workload, intermediated reach distance number of exertions above threshold limit values, job tenure manual material handling, and age combined to provide a model sensitivity of 68.5% and specificity of 71.9%. The results of this study indicate which biomechanical, individual and psychosocial risk factors are important as well as how much of each risk factor is too much resulting in increased risk of low back disorder among furniture distribution workers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Procedural justice versus risk factors for offending: predicting recidivism in youth.

    PubMed

    Penner, Erika K; Viljoen, Jodi L; Douglas, Kevin S; Roesch, Ronald

    2014-06-01

    Theories of procedural justice suggest that individuals who experience respectful and fair legal decision-making procedures are more likely to believe in the legitimacy of the law and, in turn, are less likely to reoffend. However, few studies have examined these relationships in youth. To begin to fill this gap in the literature, in the current study, the authors studied 92 youth (67 male, 25 female) on probation regarding their perceptions of procedural justice and legitimacy, and then monitored their offending over the subsequent 6 months. Results indicated that perceptions of procedural justice predicted self-reported offending at 3 months but not at 6 months, and that youths' beliefs about the legitimacy of the law did not mediate this relationship. Furthermore, procedural justice continued to account for unique variance in self-reported offending over and above the predictive power of well-established risk factors for offending (i.e., peer delinquency, substance abuse, psychopathy, and age at first contact with the law). Theoretically, the current study provides evidence that models of procedural justice developed for adults are only partially replicated in a sample of youth; practically, this research suggests that by treating adolescents in a fair and just manner, justice professionals may be able to reduce the likelihood that adolescents will reoffend, at least in the short term.

  19. Do genetic risk scores for body mass index predict risk of phobic anxiety? Evidence for a shared genetic risk factor.

    PubMed

    Walter, S; Glymour, M M; Koenen, K; Liang, L; Tchetgen Tchetgen, E J; Cornelis, M; Chang, S-C; Rewak, M; Rimm, E; Kawachi, I; Kubzansky, L D

    2015-01-01

    Obesity and anxiety are often linked but the direction of effects is not clear. Using genetic instrumental variable (IV) analyses in 5911 female participants from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, initiated 1976) and 3697 male participants from the Health Professional Follow-up Study (HPFS, initiated 1986), we aimed to determine whether obesity increases symptoms of phobic anxiety. As instrumental variables we used the fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene, the melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R) gene and a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 32 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that significantly predict body mass index (BMI). 'Functional' GRSs corresponding with specific biological pathways that shape BMI (adipogenesis, appetite and cardiopulmonary) were considered. The main outcome was phobic anxiety measured by the Crown Crisp Index (CCI) in 2004 in the NHS and in 2000 in the HPFS. In observational analysis, a 1-unit higher BMI was associated with higher phobic anxiety symptoms [women: β = 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.030-0.068; men: β = 0.04, 95% CI 0.016-0.071). IV analyses showed that BMI was associated with higher phobic anxiety symptoms in the FTO-instrumented analysis (p = 0.005) but not in the GRS-instrumented analysis (p = 0.256). Functional GRSs showed heterogeneous, non-significant effects of BMI on phobic anxiety symptoms. Our findings do not provide conclusive evidence in favor of the hypothesis that higher BMI leads to higher levels of phobic anxiety, but rather suggest that genes that influence obesity, in particular FTO, may have direct effects on phobic anxiety, and hence that obesity and phobic anxiety may share common genetic determinants.

  20. Do genetic risk scores for body mass index predict risk of phobic anxiety? Evidence for a shared genetic risk factor

    PubMed Central

    Walter, Stefan; Glymour, M. Maria; Koenen, Karestan; Liang, Liming; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Cornelis, Marilyn; Chang, Shun-Chiao; Rewak, Marissa; Rimm, Eric; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Obesity and anxiety are often linked but the direction of effects is not clear. Methods Using genetic instrumental variable (IV) analyses in a sample of 5911 female participants from the Nurses´ Health Study (NHS, initiated in 1976) and 3697 male participants from the Health Professional Follow-up Study (HPFS, initiated in 1986), we aim to determine whether obesity increases symptoms of phobic anxiety. FTO, MC4R, and a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 32 single nucleotide polymorphisms that significantly predict body mass index (BMI), were used as instrumental variables. “Functional” GRS corresponding with specific biological pathways that shape BMI (adipogenesis, appetite, and cardio-pulmonary), were considered. Phobic anxiety as measured by the Crown Crisp Experimental Index (CCI) in 2004 in NHS and 2000 in HPFS was the main outcome. Results In observational analysis, a one unit higher BMI was associated with higher phobic anxiety symptoms (women NHS: beta=0.05; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.030 – 0.068 and men, HPFS, beta = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.016 – 0.071). IV analyses showed that BMI instrumented by FTO was associated with higher phobic anxiety symptoms (p = 0.005) but BMI instrumented by GRS was not (p=0.256). Functional GRS scores showed heterogeneous, non-significant effects of BMI on phobic anxiety symptoms. Conclusions Our findings do not provide conclusive evidence in favor of the hypothesis that higher BMI leads to higher levels of phobic anxiety, but rather suggest that genes that influence obesity, in particular FTO, may have direct effects on phobic anxiety, i.e., that obesity and phobic anxiety may share common genetic determinants. PMID:25065638

  1. Predictive risk factors for chronic regional and multisite musculoskeletal pain: a 5-year prospective study in a working population.

    PubMed

    Herin, Fabrice; Vézina, Michel; Thaon, Isabelle; Soulat, Jean-Marc; Paris, Christophe

    2014-05-01

    The role of psychosocial and physical factors in the development of musculoskeletal pain (MSP) has now been clearly demonstrated. However, it is unclear whether these factors contribute to specific regional MSP or to multisite pain. The main goal of this study was to assess the impact of work-related factors according to gender on the development of regional and multisite MSP. A total of 12,591 subjects (65% men and 35% women) who were born in 1938, 1943, 1948, and 1953 and were participating in a French longitudinal prospective epidemiological survey (ESTEV) in 1990 to 1995 were eligible. Personal factors and work exposure were assessed by self-administered questionnaires. Statistical associations between chronic MSP (regional body site or multisite), personal factors, and occupational factors were analyzed using logistic regression modeling. The incidence of regional MSP and multisite pain in 1995 were, respectively, 17% and 25.6%. For women, highly repetitive movements predicted neck/shoulder pain; posture and vibrations predicted arm and low back pain; and effort with tools predicted arm pain. For men, forceful effort and vibrations predicted neck/shoulder pain; posture and forceful effort predicted lower limb and low back pain; and forceful effort and effort with tools predicted arm pain. Physical constraints (ie, forceful effort or vibrations) were associated with multisite pain in both genders. Only for women, psychological factors were risk factors predictive of upper limb pain and in 3 or 4 painful anatomical sites. These results support the hypothesis that some physical and psychological work-related factors are predictive of regional or multisite MSP but differ according to gender. Gender differences and risk factors for work-related musculoskeletal pain should be also taken into account to more effectively target preventive measures.

  2. Utility of genetic and non-genetic risk factors in predicting coronary heart disease in Singaporean Chinese.

    PubMed

    Chang, Xuling; Salim, Agus; Dorajoo, Rajkumar; Han, Yi; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; van Dam, Rob M; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay; Liu, Jianjun; Goh, Daniel Yt; Wang, Xu; Teo, Yik-Ying; Friedlander, Yechiel; Heng, Chew-Kiat

    2017-01-01

    Background Although numerous phenotype based equations for predicting risk of 'hard' coronary heart disease are available, data on the utility of genetic information for such risk prediction is lacking in Chinese populations. Design Case-control study nested within the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Methods A total of 1306 subjects comprising 836 men (267 incident cases and 569 controls) and 470 women (128 incident cases and 342 controls) were included. A Genetic Risk Score comprising 156 single nucleotide polymorphisms that have been robustly associated with coronary heart disease or its risk factors ( p < 5 × 10(-8)) in at least two independent cohorts of genome-wide association studies was built. For each gender, three base models were used: recalibrated Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) Model (M1); ATP III model fitted using Singapore Chinese Health Study data (M2) and M3: M2 + C-reactive protein + creatinine. Results The Genetic Risk Score was significantly associated with incident 'hard' coronary heart disease ( p for men: 1.70 × 10(-10)-1.73 × 10(-9); p for women: 0.001). The inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score in the prediction models improved discrimination in both genders (c-statistics: 0.706-0.722 vs. 0.663-0.695 from base models for men; 0.788-0.790 vs. 0.765-0.773 for women). In addition, the inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score also improved risk classification with a net gain of cases being reclassified to higher risk categories (men: 12.4%-16.5%; women: 10.2% (M3)), while not significantly reducing the classification accuracy in controls. Conclusions The Genetic Risk Score is an independent predictor for incident 'hard' coronary heart disease in our ethnic Chinese population. Inclusion of genetic factors into coronary heart disease prediction models could significantly improve risk prediction performance.

  3. Factors affecting paddy soil arsenic concentration in Bangladesh: prediction and uncertainty of geostatistical risk mapping.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Zia U; Panaullah, Golam M; DeGloria, Stephen D; Duxbury, John M

    2011-12-15

    Knowledge of the spatial correlation of soil arsenic (As) concentrations with environmental variables is needed to assess the nature and extent of the risk of As contamination from irrigation water in Bangladesh. We analyzed 263 paired groundwater and paddy soil samples covering highland (HL) and medium highland-1 (MHL-1) land types for geostatistical mapping of soil As and delineation of As contaminated areas in Tala Upazilla, Satkhira district. We also collected 74 non-rice soil samples to assess the baseline concentration of soil As for this area. The mean soil As concentrations (mg/kg) for different land types under rice and non-rice crops were: rice-MHL-1 (21.2)>rice-HL (14.1)>non-rice-MHL-1 (11.9)>non-rice-HL (7.2). Multiple regression analyses showed that irrigation water As, Fe, land elevation and years of tubewell operation are the important factors affecting the concentrations of As in HL paddy soils. Only years of tubewell operation affected As concentration in the MHL-1 paddy soils. Quantitatively similar increases in soil As above the estimated baseline-As concentration were observed for rice soils on HL and MHL-1 after 6-8 years of groundwater irrigation, implying strong retention of As added in irrigation water in both land types. Application of single geostatistical methods with secondary variables such as regression kriging (RK) and ordinary co-kriging (OCK) gave little improvement in prediction of soil As over ordinary kriging (OK). Comparing single prediction methods, kriging within strata (KWS), the combination of RK for HL and OCK for MHL-1, gave more accurate soil As predictions and showed the lowest misclassification of declaring a location "contaminated" with respect to 14.8 mg As/kg, the highest value obtained for the baseline soil As concentration. Prediction of soil As buildup over time indicated that 75% or the soils cropped to rice would contain at least 30 mg/L As by the year 2020. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting high-risk versus higher-risk substance use during late adolescence from early adolescent risk factors using Latent Class Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lamont, Andrea E.; Woodlief, Darren; Malone, Patrick S.

    2013-01-01

    Much of the existing risk factor literature focuses on identifying predictors of low-levels of substance use versus higher-levels of substance use. In this paper, we explore more nuanced patterns of alcohol, tobacco, and other drug (ATOD) use during late adolescence. Our aims were to: 1) identify subgroups of youth with qualitatively different patterns of ATOD use; and 2) explore whether membership among qualitatively distinct, high-risk classes could be predicted based on early adolescent risk factors. Data came from a selected subsample of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (n = 1,689). Predictors were measured when youth were about 12 years old; ATOD use was assessed when youth were aged 17 years. Results showed that adolescent ATOD use is not a homogenous behavior. Four distinct classes of adolescent ATOD users were derived. Each class had a qualitatively distinct and discriminable pattern of ATOD use. Ecological predictors were shown to differentiate between latent classes, with peer factors playing a particularly important role in differentiating between high-risk and higher-risk users. Implications for prevention and limitations are discussed. PMID:24511308

  5. Using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to predict the risk of heat related deaths.

    PubMed

    Langlois, Neil; Herbst, Jonathon; Mason, Kerryn; Nairn, John; Byard, Roger W

    2013-07-01

    Extremes of climate are not uncommon in Australia and heatwaves are not infrequent. Periods of high ambient temperature may result in clusters of heat related deaths, which may place strain on forensic facilities. This paper describes the formulation of the Excess Heat Factor using meteorological data to provide a means of predicting death resulting from periods of extreme heat stress. The 2009 South Australian heatwave had the highest ranked Excess Heat Factor in Adelaide's records. There were 58 heat related deaths, with the bulk of the heat related deaths following the peak Excess Heat Factor value (144 °C(2)). The 2008 heatwave had a lower peak Excess Heat Factor value (36 °C(2)); there was only one heat related death, which followed the peak in the Excess Heat Factor. It is proposed that calculation of the Excess Heat Factor from meteorological data could provide a means to predict and identify heat related deaths resulting from extreme weather conditions.

  6. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cancer Causes, Risk Factors, and Prevention Pancreatic Cancer Risk Factors A risk factor is anything that affects ... these are risk factors for exocrine pancreatic cancer . Risk factors that can be changed Tobacco use Smoking ...

  7. The Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors Predictive for Populations at High-Risk for La Crosse Virus Infection in West Virginia

    PubMed Central

    Haddow, Andrew D.; Bixler, Danae; Schuh, Amy J.

    2011-01-01

    Although a large body of literature exists for the environmental risk factors for La Crosse virus (LACV) transmission, the demographic and socioeconomic risk factors for developing LACV infection have not been investigated. Therefore, this study investigated the demographic and socioeconomic risk factors for LACV infection in West Virginia from 2003 to 2007, using two forward stepwise discriminant analyses. The discriminant analyses were used to evaluate a number of demographic and socioeconomic factors for their ability to predict: 1) those census tracts with at least one reported case of LACV infection versus those census tracts with no reported cases of LACV infection and 2) to evaluate significantly high-risk clusters for LACV infection versus significantly low-risk clusters for LACV infection. In the first model, a high school education diploma or a general education diploma or less and a lower housing density were found to be predictive of those census tracts with at least one case of LACV infection. A high school or a general education diploma or less, lower housing density, and housing built in 1969 and earlier were all found to be predictive of those census tracts displaying high-risk clusters versus census tracts displaying low-risk clusters in the second model. The cluster discriminant analysis was found to be more predictive than the census tract discriminant analysis as indicated by the Eigenvalues, canonical correlation, and grouping accuracy. The results of this study indicate that socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are at the highest risk for LACV infection and should be a focus of LACV infection prevention efforts. PMID:21980533

  8. The demographic and socioeconomic factors predictive for populations at high-risk for La Crosse virus infection in West Virginia.

    PubMed

    Haddow, Andrew D; Bixler, Danae; Schuh, Amy J

    2011-01-01

    Although a large body of literature exists for the environmental risk factors for La Crosse virus (LACV) transmission, the demographic and socioeconomic risk factors for developing LACV infection have not been investigated. Therefore, this study investigated the demographic and socioeconomic risk factors for LACV infection in West Virginia from 2003 to 2007, using two forward stepwise discriminant analyses. The discriminant analyses were used to evaluate a number of demographic and socioeconomic factors for their ability to predict: 1) those census tracts with at least one reported case of LACV infection versus those census tracts with no reported cases of LACV infection and 2) to evaluate significantly high-risk clusters for LACV infection versus significantly low-risk clusters for LACV infection. In the first model, a high school education diploma or a general education diploma or less and a lower housing densitywere found to be predictive of those census tracts with at least one case of LACV infection. A high school or a general education diploma or less, lower housing density, and housing built in 1969 and earlier were all found to be predictive of those census tracts displaying high-risk clusters versus census tracts displaying low-risk clusters in the second model. The cluster discriminant analysis was found to be more predictive than the census tract discriminant analysis as indicated by the Eigenvalues, canonical correlation, and grouping accuracy. The results of this study indicate that socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are at the highest risk for LACV infection and should be a focus of LACV infection prevention efforts.

  9. Predictive Validity of Established Cut Points for Risk and Protective Factor Scales from the Communities That Care Youth Survey

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Eric C.; Hawkins, J. David; Arthur, Michael W.

    2012-01-01

    Community coalitions are a popular strategy to coordinate activities and resources to prevent adolescent substance use and delinquent behavior. Despite early evidence of their lack of effectiveness, a new generation of community coalitions has shown positive results in preventing youth substance use and delinquency. This success can be attributed to coalition decision making focused on reducing local risk factors and increasing local protective factors through the use of evidence-based prevention programs. A previous study using cross-sectional data established cut point values for scales measuring risk and protective factors on the Communities That Care Youth Survey (CTCYS) to identify high levels of risk and low levels of protection in communities on each scale. The current study extended this previous research by using longitudinal data to assess the validity of risk and protective factor cut point values in predicting substance use and delinquent behavior 1 year after risk and protection were measured. The findings demonstrate the predictive validity of cut points for risk and protective factor scales measured by the CTCYS and suggest their utility in guiding prevention efforts. PMID:23143070

  10. Predictive validity of established cut points for risk and protective factor scales from the communities that care youth survey.

    PubMed

    Briney, John S; Brown, Eric C; Hawkins, J David; Arthur, Michael W

    2012-12-01

    Community coalitions are a popular strategy to coordinate activities and resources to prevent adolescent substance use and delinquent behavior. Despite early evidence of their lack of effectiveness, a new generation of community coalitions has shown positive results in preventing youth substance use and delinquency. This success can be attributed to coalition decision making focused on reducing local risk factors and increasing local protective factors through the use of evidence-based prevention programs. A previous study using cross-sectional data established cut point values for scales measuring risk and protective factors on the Communities That Care Youth Survey (CTCYS) to identify high levels of risk and low levels of protection in communities on each scale. The current study extended this previous research by using longitudinal data to assess the validity of risk and protective factor cut point values in predicting substance use and delinquent behavior 1 year after risk and protection were measured. The findings demonstrate the predictive validity of cut points for risk and protective factor scales measured by the CTCYS and suggest their utility in guiding prevention efforts.

  11. Testing a Model of Environmental Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Middle and High School Students' Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peters, S. Colby; Woolley, Michael E.

    2015-01-01

    Data from the School Success Profile generated by 19,228 middle and high school students were organized into three broad categories of risk and protective factors--control, support, and challenge--to examine the relative and combined power of aggregate scale scores in each category so as to predict academic success. It was hypothesized that higher…

  12. Testing a Model of Environmental Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Middle and High School Students' Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peters, S. Colby; Woolley, Michael E.

    2015-01-01

    Data from the School Success Profile generated by 19,228 middle and high school students were organized into three broad categories of risk and protective factors--control, support, and challenge--to examine the relative and combined power of aggregate scale scores in each category so as to predict academic success. It was hypothesized that higher…

  13. Dynamic prediction model and risk assessment chart for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure and baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Teramukai, Satoshi; Okuda, Yasuyuki; Miyazaki, Shigeru; Kawamori, Ryuzo; Shirayama, Masayuki; Teramoto, Tamio

    2016-02-01

    For patients with hypertension, an individual risk prediction tool for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure is needed and would be useful. The objective of this study was to establish a 3-year risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease based on data from 13 052 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease in the Olmesartan Mega study to determine the relationship between Cardiovascular Endpoints and Blood Pressure Goal Achievement study. To develop dynamic prediction models including on-treatment blood pressure, a Cox proportional hazard model using the sliding landmarking method with three landmark points (6, 12 and 18 months from baseline) was used. The prediction model included blood pressure (<130/85 mm Hg, ⩾130/85  to <140/90 mm Hg, ⩾140/90 to <160/100 mm Hg and ⩾160/100 mm Hg) as a time-dependent covariate and well-known baseline risk factors (sex, age, smoking, family history of coronary artery disease and diabetes) as covariates. The 3-year risk assessment chart was constructed using the combination of all risk factors in the prediction model, and six different colors were displayed on each chart corresponding to the predicted probability of cardiovascular disease. Judging from the chart, if an elderly man with diabetes and other risk factors had a blood pressure of <130/85 mm Hg at 6 months, the risk of cardiovascular disease would be 8.0%, whereas the risk would be 8.6% if he had a blood pressure of ⩾130/85 to <140/90 mm Hg. The risk assessment chart developed from the large-scale observational study data would help physicians to more easily assess the cardiovascular disease risk for hypertensive patients on antihypertensive treatments.

  14. Risk factors that predicted problem drinking in Danish men at age thirty.

    PubMed

    Knop, Joachim; Penick, Elizabeth C; Jensen, Per; Nickel, Elizabeth J; Gabrielli, William F; Mednick, Sarnoff A; Schulsinger, Fini

    2003-11-01

    The Danish Longitudinal Study of Alcoholism utilized a prospective, high-risk research paradigm to identify putative markers of adult male alcoholism from a comprehensive database that began with the birth of the subject and extended over three decades. This article focuses on measures antedating abusive drinking that predicted lifetime alcohol abuse/dependence at age 30 years. The original 330 subjects of this study were drawn from a large Danish birth cohort (N = 9,125) born between 1959 and 1961. The sample included 223 sons of treated alcoholic fathers (high-risk group) and 107 matched sons whose biological fathers had no record of treatment for alcoholism (low-risk group). This sample has been thoroughly investigated with a variety of methods representing multiple domains that included perinatal records, pediatric records, school records, teacher ratings, school physician records and a series of structured interviews and psychometric tests at ages 19-20 and 30 years. The present analysis focuses on the degree to which premorbid differences between the high- and low-risk groups later predicted lifetime drinking problems at age 30 (n = 241). As expected lifetime alcohol abuse/dependence by age 30 was reported significantly more often in the high-risk group. Of the 394 premorbid variables tested, 68 were found to distinguish the high- from the low-risk group before any subjects had developed a drinking problem. Of these 68 variables, 28 (41%) were also associated with DSM-III-R alcohol abuse/dependence at age 30. These 28 putative markers were reduced to 12 that were entered into a multiple regression analysis to search for the most powerful unique predictors of alcoholism. Four of the 28 putative markers were independently associated with problem drinking at age 30: low birth weight, number of life crises in childhood, ratings of childhood unhappiness and antisocial personality disorder. The regression model accounted for 46% of the drinking outcome variance. A

  15. Improving Global Vascular Risk Prediction with Behavioral and Anthropometric Factors: The Multi-ethnic Northern Manhattan Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Sacco, Ralph L.; Khatri, Minesh; Rundek, Tatjana; Xu, Qiang; Gardener, Hannah; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Di Tullio, Marco R.; Homma, Shunichi; Elkind, Mitchell SV; Paik, Myunghee C

    2010-01-01

    Objective To improve global vascular risk prediction with behavioral and anthropometric factors. Background Few cardiovascular risk models are designed to predict the global vascular risk of MI, stroke, or vascular death in multi-ethnic individuals, and existing schemes do not fully include behavioral risk factors. Methods A randomly-derived, population-based, prospective cohort of 2737 community participants free of stroke and coronary artery disease were followed annually for a median of 9.0 years in the Northern Manhattan Study (mean age 69 years; 63.2% women; 52.7% Hispanic, 24.9% African-American, 19.9% white). A global vascular risk score (GVRS) predictive of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death was developed by adding variables to the traditional Framingham cardiovascular variables based on the likelihood ratio criterion. Model utility was assessed through receiver operating characteristics, calibration, and effect on reclassification of subjects. Results Variables which significantly added to the traditional Framingham profile included waist circumference, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. Continuous measures for blood pressure and fasting blood sugar were used instead of hypertension and diabetes. Ten -year event-free probabilities were 0.95 for the first quartile of GVRS, 0.89 for the second quartile, 0.79 for the third quartile, and 0.56 for the fourth quartile. The addition of behavioral factors in our model improved prediction of 10 -year event rates compared to a model restricted to the traditional variables. Conclusion A global vascular risk score that combines both traditional, behavioral, and anthropometric risk factors, uses continuous variables for physiological parameters, and is applicable to non-white subjects could improve primary prevention strategies. PMID:19958966

  16. Comparison of the Combined Obesity Indices to Predict Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Factors and Metabolic Syndrome in Northeast China.

    PubMed

    Tao, Yuchun; Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuhui; Pang, Hui; Yu, Yang; Yu, Yaqin; Jin, Lina

    2016-08-09

    Obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes) and metabolic syndrome (MetS), and it may be flawed that most studies only use one obesity index to predict these risk factors. Therefore, our study aims to compare the various combined obesity indices systematically, and to find the optimal combined obesity indices to predict CVD risk factors and MetS. A total of 16,766 participants aged 18-79 years old were recruited in Jilin Province in 2012. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curves and multiple logistic regressions were used to evaluate the predictive capacity of the combined obesity indices for CVD risk factors and MetS. The adjusted area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) with two combined obesity indices had been improved up to 19.45%, compared with one single obesity index. In addition, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were the optimal combinations, where the AUROC (95% confidence interval (CI)) for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and MetS in males were 0.730 (0.718, 0.740), 0.694 (0.682, 0.706), 0.725 (0.709, 0.742) and 0.820 (0.810, 0.830), and in females were 0.790 (0.780, 0.799), 0.727 (0.717, 0.738), 0.746 (0.731, 0.761) and 0.828 (0.820, 0.837), respectively. The more abnormal obesity indices that one has the higher the risk for CVD risk factors and MetS, especially in males. In addition, the combined obesity indices have better predictions than one obesity index, where BMI and WC are the optimal combinations.

  17. History of preeclampsia is more predictive of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors than obesity.

    PubMed

    Heidema, Wieteke M; Scholten, Ralph R; Lotgering, Fred K; Spaanderman, Marc E A

    2015-11-01

    To determine to what extent a history of preeclampsia affects traditional cardiometabolic (insulin resistance and dyslipidemia) and cardiovascular (hypertension and micro-albuminuria) risk factors of the metabolic syndrome irrespective of BMI. In a retrospective case-control study we compared 90 formerly preeclamptic women, divided in 3 BMI-classes (BMI 19.5-24.9, 25.0-29.9, ≥30.0kg/m(2)) to 30 controls, matched for BMI, age and parity. Cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors (WHO-criteria) were tested 6-18 months post partum. Statistical analysis included unpaired t-tests, Mann-Whitney U test, or Chi square test and two-way ANOVA. Constituents of the metabolic syndrome (glucose, insulin, HOMAIR, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, micro-albuminuria) were higher in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls. Resultantly, traditional risk factors were more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in controls (insulin resistance 80% vs 30%, dyslipidemia 52% vs 3%, hypertension 24% vs 0%, micro-albuminuria 30% vs 0%). Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with BMI, to the same extent in both groups. Formerly preeclamptic women had metabolic syndrome more often than their BMI-matched controls (38% vs 3%, p<0.001). Traditional risk factors of the metabolic syndrome are more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls and increase with BMI to the same extent in both groups. A history of preeclampsia seems to be a stronger indicator of cardiovascular risk than obesity per se. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Risk factors and clinical prediction of shoulder dystocia in non-macrosomia].

    PubMed

    Li, Na; Li, Qiuling; Chang, Liang; Liu, Caixia

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the risk factors, clinical prediction and intrapartum management of shoulder dystocia in non-macrosomia. Totally 7 811 cases of vaginal delivery were retrospectively reviewed from Juanary 2009 to December 2013 in Shengjing Hospital. Shoulder dystocia was found in 11 cases (0.14% , 11/7 811), including 1 case of macrosomia and 10 cases of non-macrosomia (shoulder dystocia group). Each non-macrosomia shoulder dystocia case was matched with 10 cases of normal delivery in the same week, which were selected randomly as the control group. The tendency and risk factors of shoulder dystocia in macrosomia and non-macrosomia were analyzed, and the following data between the two groups were compared, including the height of uterus fundus, abdominal circumference of the pregnant woman, the increasing of body mass index (BMI), fetal biparietal diameter (BPD), fetal femur length (FL), duration of every stage of labor, birth weight of the newborn, head circumference and chest circumference of the newborn, Apgar score. (1) There were 213 macrosomias among the 7 811 vaginal deliveries, with the incidence of 2.73% (213/7 811). Only 1 shoulder dystocia was macrosomia (0.46%, 1/213); while the other 10 cases were non-macrosomia ( 0.13%, 10/7 598). (2) From 2009 to 2013, the macrosomia happened by 24 cases (2.32%, 24/1 034), 42 cases (3.61%, 42/1 164), 46 cases (2.60%, 46/1 772), 62 cases (3.01%, 62/2 060), 39 cases (2.19%, 39/1781), respectively. The incidence of macrosomia had no significant difference among these 5 years (P > 0.05). The shoulder dystosia occurrence without macrosia in these 5 years were 1 case ( 0.10% , 1/1 034), 3 cases (0.26%, 3/1 164), 2 cases ( 0.11%, 2/1 172), 2 cases (0.10%, 2/2 060), 2 cases ( 0.11%, 1/1 781), respectively. The incidence of shoulder dystocia without macrosomia had no significant difference among these 5 years (P > 0.05). (3) In the should dystocia group, 5 cases were complicated with premature rupture of membrane (5/10), 4

  19. Heart disease - risk factors

    MedlinePlus

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  20. Risk and Protective Factors Predictive of Adolescent Pregnancy: A Longitudinal, Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    East, Patricia L.; Khoo, Siek Toon; Reyes, Barbara T.

    2006-01-01

    One hundred twenty-eight Latina and African American girls from high-risk environments (e.g., poverty, family history of teen parenting, etc.) were studied from age 13 through age 19 to prospectively identify the protective factors that might guard against teenage pregnancy. Results indicated that involved and strict parenting during early…

  1. Social-Relational Risk Factors for Predicting Elder Physical Abuse: An Ecological Bi-Focal Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Heydrich, Levente; Schiamberg, Lawrence B.; Chee, Grace

    2012-01-01

    Annually in the United States, 1 to 5 million older adults, 65 and above, are physically or sexually injured or mistreated by their caregivers in family settings. This study examined the prevalence and risk factors involved in elder physical abuse by adult child caregivers, moving from the immediate elderly parent/adult child relationship context…

  2. Social-Relational Risk Factors for Predicting Elder Physical Abuse: An Ecological Bi-Focal Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Heydrich, Levente; Schiamberg, Lawrence B.; Chee, Grace

    2012-01-01

    Annually in the United States, 1 to 5 million older adults, 65 and above, are physically or sexually injured or mistreated by their caregivers in family settings. This study examined the prevalence and risk factors involved in elder physical abuse by adult child caregivers, moving from the immediate elderly parent/adult child relationship context…

  3. Risk and Protective Factors Predictive of Adolescent Pregnancy: A Longitudinal, Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    East, Patricia L.; Khoo, Siek Toon; Reyes, Barbara T.

    2006-01-01

    One hundred twenty-eight Latina and African American girls from high-risk environments (e.g., poverty, family history of teen parenting, etc.) were studied from age 13 through age 19 to prospectively identify the protective factors that might guard against teenage pregnancy. Results indicated that involved and strict parenting during early…

  4. Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction.

    PubMed

    Wessel, Jennifer; Gupta, Jyoti; de Groot, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598) were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%), online registry (37%) and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%). Respondents were 37 ± 11 years old, primarily White (54%), female (69%), college educated (46%), with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%). Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52%) and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9)]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48)]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42)]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60)], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6)]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7)]) and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30)]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing.

  5. Global risk factors and the prediction of recidivism rates in a sample of first-time misdemeanant offenders.

    PubMed

    Gavazzi, Stephen M; Yarcheck, Courtney M; Sullivan, Jason M; Jones, Sheri C; Khurana, Atika

    2008-06-01

    This article examines the prediction of recidivism using the Global Risk Assessment Device (GRAD), a reliable and valid measure of dynamic factors associated with family characteristics, peers, mental health, substance abuse, trauma exposure, educational concerns, accountability, and health risks. Using a sample of adult caregivers of first-time misdemeanant offenders, two factors-education and accountability-were significantly associated with recidivistic behavior, supporting the use of GRAD data in correctly identifying first-time offenders who have the greatest and the least likelihood for future offending behavior. Additional analyses utilizing parent reports on African American males indicate that the GRAD provides discrimination in the prediction of recidivism in a group typically seen as being high risk simply because of their gender and race. The assessment drives intervention approach of the GRAD is discussed in terms of using reports from adults to accurately place youth into appropriate levels of supervision and treatment.

  6. Predicting antisocial behavior in youngsters displaying poor academic achievement: a review of risk factors.

    PubMed

    Brier, N

    1995-08-01

    School failure tends to be associated with other negative behaviors, and delinquency in particular has been found to be a common co-occurring difficulty. Factors thought to contribute to the co-occurrence of school failure and delinquency are discussed with the goal of helping clinicians identify among youngsters failing at school those most likely to develop antisocial behavior. The factors addressed include temperament, intelligence, school attitude, peer influence, and parenting practices. The implications of these risk factors for early assessment and treatment are then examined.

  7. Liver imaging reporting and data system category 4 observations in MRI: Risk factors predicting upgrade to category 5.

    PubMed

    Sofue, Keitaro; Burke, Lauren M B; Nilmini, Viragi; Alagiyawanna, Madavi; Muir, Andrew J; Choudhury, Kingshuk R; Jaffe, Tracy A; Semelka, Richard C; Bashir, Mustafa R

    2017-09-01

    To identify demographic and imaging features in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) that are associated with upgrade of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) category 4 (LR-4) observations to category 5 (LR-5), and to assess their effects on risk of upgrade and time to upgrade. Institutional Review Board approval was obtained for this retrospective, dual-institution Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)-compliant study. Radiologists reviewed 1.5T and 3T MRI examinations for 181 LR-4 observations in 139 patients, as well as follow-up computed tomography (CT) and MRI examinations and treatment. A stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis was performed to identify predictive risk factors for upgrade to LR-5, including patient demographics and LI-RADS imaging features. Overall cumulative risk of upgrade was calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier method. The cumulative risks were compared in the presence/absence of significant predictive risk factors using the log-rank test. The independent significant predictive risk factors in the 56 LR-4 observations that upgraded to LR-5 were mild-moderate T2 hyperintensity (P < 0.001; hazard ratio = 1.84), growth (P < 0.001; hazard ratio = 3.71), and hepatitis C infection (P = 0.02; hazard ratio = 1.69). The overall 6-month cumulative risk of upgrade was 32.7%. The 6-month cumulative risk rate was significantly higher in the presence of T2 hyperintensity (P = 0.03; 48.1% vs. 25.4%). For LR-4 observations, mild-moderate T2 hyperintensity, threshold growth, and hepatitis C infection are associated with significantly higher risk of upgrade to LR-5. Although mild-moderate T2 hyperintensity was the most useful risk factor for predicting upgrade, actual risk level was only mildly elevated, and the risk of upgrade associated with LR-4 observations is similar across subtypes. 3 Technical Efficacy: Stage 5 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2017;46:783-792. © 2017

  8. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  9. Risk Factors and Prediction of Stroke in a Population with High Prevalence of Diabetes: The Strong Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wenyu; Zhang, Ying; Lee, Elisa T; Howard, Barbara V; Devereux, Richard B; Cole, Shelley A; Best, Lyle G; Welty, Thomas K; Rhoades, Everett; Yeh, Jeunliang; Ali, Tauqeer; Kizer, Jorge R; Kamel, Hooman; Shara, Nawar; Wiebers, David O; Stoner, Julie A

    2017-05-01

    American Indians have a high prevalence of diabetes and higher incidence of stroke than that of whites and blacks in the U.S. Stroke risk prediction models based on data from American Indians would be of clinical and public health value. A total of 3483 (2043 women) Strong Heart Study participants free of stroke at baseline were followed from 1989 to 2010 for incident stroke. Overall, 297 stroke cases (179 women) were identified. Cox models with stroke-free time and risk factors recorded at baseline were used to develop stroke risk prediction models. Assessment of the developed stroke risk prediction models regarding discrimination and calibration was performed by an analogous C-statistic (C) and a version of the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic (HL), respectively, and validated internally through use of Bootstrapping methods. Age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, hypertension status, an-tihypertensive therapy, fasting plasma glucose, diabetes medications, high/low density lipoproteins, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, history of coronary heart disease/heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or Left ventricular hypertrophy, and parental history of stroke were identified as the significant optimal risk factors for incident stroke. The models produced a C = 0.761 and HL = 4.668 (p = 0.792) for women, and a C = 0.765 and HL = 9.171 (p = 0.328) for men, showing good discrimination and calibration. Our stroke risk prediction models provide a mechanism for stroke risk assessment designed for American Indians. The models may be also useful to other populations with high prevalence of obesity and/or diabetes for screening individuals for risk of incident stroke and designing prevention programs.

  10. Risk factors for adolescent sex offender recidivism: evaluation of predictive factors and comparison of three groups based upon victim type.

    PubMed

    Parks, Gregory A; Bard, David E

    2006-10-01

    This study investigated differences in recidivism risk factors and traits associated with psychopathy among 3 groups of male adolescent sexual offenders (N=156): offenders against children, offenders against peers or adults, and mixed type offenders. Furthermore, those same variables were examined for their association with sexual and nonsexual recidivism and the 3 groups were compared for differences in rates of recidivism. Based upon both juvenile and adult recidivism data, 6.4% of the sample reoffended sexually and 30.1% reoffended nonsexually. Retrospective risk assessments were completed using the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (JSOAP-II) and the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Comparisons of the 3 preexisting groups for differences on scale and factor scores were conducted using analyses of variance (ANOVAs). Differences among groups for recidivism were measured using survival curve analysis. Associations between risk scales and recidivism were measured using Cox regression analyses. Results suggest significant differences among the 3 offender groups on multiple scales of the JSOAP-II and PCL:YV, with mixed type offenders consistently producing higher risk scores as compared to those who exclusively offend against children or peers/adults. The Impulsive/Antisocial Behavior scale of the JSOAP-II and the Interpersonal and Antisocial factors of the PCL:YV were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. The Behavioral and Antisocial factors of the PCL:YV were significant predictors of nonsexual recidivism. Results supported previous research indicating that most adolescents who sexually offend do not continue offending into adulthood. Such results can lead to improved treatment by targeting specific risk factors for intervention and better use of risk management resources in the community, while preserving the most restrictive treatment options for the highest risk offenders.

  11. Body fat distribution predicts cardiac risk factors in older female coronary patients.

    PubMed

    Ross, S J; Poehlman, E T; Johnson, R K; Ades, P A

    1997-01-01

    After myocardial infarction, women have higher rates of recurrent coronary events than men. This is caused, at least in part, by a higher prevalence of obesity-related coronary risk factors such as hyperlipidemia, hypertension, sedentary lifestyle, insulin resistance, and diabetes. We studied the relationship between measures of body fat distribution, body composition, aerobic fitness, and dietary intake and several coronary risk factors including lipids, glucose, and insulin levels. The study population included 20 women > 60 years of age with recently diagnosed coronary heart disease and a comparison group of 50 healthy women with low-risk coronary risk profiles. Dependent variables included lipid subfractions (fasting, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol), glucose levels, and serum insulin levels. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) was the best predictor of serum triglyceride levels (r = .65, P = .002), HDL cholesterol level (r = .46, P = .05), and fasting serum insulin levels (r = .76, P < .001) whereas peak oxygen consumption (Peak VO2) was the best predictor of LDL cholesterol (r = .73, P < .001). In a combined population of the 20 coronary patients and 50 healthy age-matched controls, WHR remained the best predictor of serum triglyceride levels (r = .57, P < .001) and insulin levels (r = .63, P < .001) and Peak V02 was the best predictor of HDL (r = .40, P < .001) and LDL cholesterol (r = .57, P = .004). Body fat distribution and peak aerobic fitness, both modifiable factors, are significant predictors of risk factors for second coronary events in older female coronary patients.

  12. Melanoma risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Nikolić, Jelena; Loncar-Turukalo, Tatjana; Sladojević, Srdan; Marinković, Marija; Janjić, Zlata

    2014-08-01

    The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls) that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR) and alternating decision trees (ADT) prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS) based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724-9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds), solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage), hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair), the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931), the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119), Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were only present in melanoma patients and thus

  13. Patient-related risk factors that predict poor outcome after total hip replacement.

    PubMed Central

    MacWilliam, C H; Yood, M U; Verner, J J; McCarthy, B D; Ward, R E

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with poor outcome after total hip replacement (THR) surgery. DATA SOURCES: This article is the first to present results from the American Medical Group Association (AMGA) THR consortium. STUDY DESIGN: The outcomes evaluated were pain and physical function. Eight patient risk factors were evaluated. These included the age, sex, race, marital status, and education of the patient; whether the patient had polyarticular disease or other comorbid conditions; and the patient's preoperative pain and physical function score. DATA COLLECTION: Data were collected from patients using AMGA-approved, self-administered questionnaires preoperatively and at six weeks, three months, six months, one year, and two years postoperatively. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of the patient risk factors studied, race, education, number of comorbid conditions, and preoperative Health Status Questionnaire (HSQ) score were found to be associated with poor outcome. These risk factors were found to have an effect on both pain and physical function at six months postoperatively. Patients with higher preoperative scores were found to have higher postoperative scores, but substantially fewer of these patients received any benefit from their surgery. For each 10-point increase in preoperative score, patients could expect at least a 6-point decrease in postoperative improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that preoperative status is an important predictor of outcome for THR. PMID:8943994

  14. A method to construct a points system to predict cardiovascular disease considering repeated measures of risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Carbayo-Herencia, Julio Antonio; Vigo, Maria Isabel; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Current predictive models for cardiovascular disease based on points systems use the baseline situation of the risk factors as independent variables. These models do not take into account the variability of the risk factors over time. Predictive models for other types of disease also exist that do consider the temporal variability of a single biological marker in addition to the baseline variables. However, due to their complexity these other models are not used in daily clinical practice. Bearing in mind the clinical relevance of these issues and that cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide we show the properties and viability of a new methodological alternative for constructing cardiovascular risk scores to make predictions of cardiovascular disease with repeated measures of the risk factors and retaining the simplicity of the points systems so often used in clinical practice (construction, statistical validation by simulation and explanation of potential utilization). We have also applied the system clinically upon a set of simulated data solely to help readers understand the procedure constructed. PMID:26893963

  15. Predictive familial risk factors and pharmacological responses in ADHD with comorbid disruptive behavior disorders.

    PubMed

    Bandou, Nobuyasu; Koike, Kayoko; Matuura, Hideo

    2010-06-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the putative familial risk factors and evaluate the pharmacological effects in children and adolescents of attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with comorbid disruptive behavior disorders (DBD) and normal IQ. The retrospective study included 144 Japanese subjects (age, 5-18 years) with ADHD, of whom 35 subjects (24%) met the diagnostic criteria for DBD. Using multiple regression analysis, the familial background risk factors that might increase any comorbid antisocial behaviors were assessed. Furthermore, the 20 methylphenidate (MPH)-resistant DBD subjects were divided into three treatment groups: MPH plus risperidone (n= 8); MPH plus carbamazepine (n= 5); and MPH plus lithium carbonate (n= 4). The effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated both before and after the add-on therapy using the Clinical Global Impressions-Improvement (CGI-I) and CGI-Severity (CGI-S) scale. The putative familial risk factors were child abuse (odds ratio [OR], 19.48; P= 0.013) and maternal psychiatric disorders (OR, 15.59; P= 0.027). The addition of risperidone had the strongest tendency to improve the CGI-S score (P= 0.063) and the highest rate of responses (50%) among the three treatment groups, albeit with no significant differences. Very few remarkable adverse clinical symptoms were observed. Child abuse and maternal psychiatric disorders are suggested to be significant risk factors in influencing the development of comorbid DBD in offspring. The use of risperidone appears to be well tolerated and is moderately effective in MPH-resistant aggression in ADHD children and adolescents with comorbid DBD.

  16. Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

    PubMed

    Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a

  17. The prediction of bereavement outcome: development of an integrative risk factor framework.

    PubMed

    Stroebe, Margaret Susan; Folkman, Susan; Hansson, Robert O; Schut, Henk

    2006-11-01

    We propose an integrative risk factor framework to enhance understanding of individual differences in adjustment to bereavement and to encourage more systematic analysis of factors contributing to bereavement outcome (e.g., examination of interactions between variables and establishing pathways in the adaptation process). The examination of individual differences in adaptation to bereavement is essential for practical (e.g. targeting high risk individuals for intervention) and theoretical (e.g. testing the validity of theoretical claims about sources of differences) purposes. And yet, existing theoretical approaches have not led to systematic empirical examination and empirical studies in the current literature are fraught with shortcomings. Derived from Cognitive Stress Theory [Lazarus, R. S. & Folkman, S. (1984). Stress, appraisal, and coping. New York: Springer] and the stressor-specific Dual Process Model of Coping with Bereavement [Stroebe, M. S., & Schut, H. A. W. (1999). The dual process model of coping with bereavement: Rationale and description. Death Studies, 23, 197-224], the framework incorporates an analysis of stressors, intra/interpersonal risk/protective factors, and appraisal and coping processes that are postulated to impact on outcome. Advantages of using the approach are outlined. Challenges in undertaking such research are addressed.

  18. Predicting cancer risk knowledge and information seeking: the role of social and cognitive factors.

    PubMed

    Hovick, Shelly R; Liang, Ming-Ching; Kahlor, Leeann

    2014-01-01

    This study tests an expanded Structural Influence Model (SIM) to gain a greater understanding of the social and cognitive factors that contribute to disparities in cancer risk knowledge and information seeking. At the core of this expansion is the planned risk information seeking model (PRISM). This study employed an online sample (N = 1,007) of African American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White adults. The addition of four cognitive predictors to the SIM substantially increased variance explained in cancer risk knowledge (R(2) = .29) and information seeking (R(2) = .56). Health literacy mediated the effects of social determinants (socioeconomic status [SES] and race/ethnicity) on cancer risk knowledge, while subjective norms mediated their effects on cancer risk information seeking. Social capital and perceived seeking control were also shown to be important mediators of the relationships between SES and cancer communication outcomes. Our results illustrate the social and cognitive mechanisms by which social determinants impact cancer communication outcomes, as well as several points of intervention to reduce communication disparities.

  19. Risk factors that predict severe injuries in university rugby sevens players.

    PubMed

    Mirsafaei Rizi, Rezvan; Yeung, Simon S; Stewart, Nathan J; Yeung, Ella W

    2017-07-01

    To investigate injury incidence and the influence of physical fitness parameters on the risk of severe injuries in players on rugby sevens university teams. Prospective cohort study. Rugby players from three universities (N=104; 90M:14F; 20.6±1.9years) were recruited before the beginning of the season. Players underwent pre-season assessments of power, strength, speed, agility, endurance, stability, and flexibility. Throughout the season, rugby-related injury and exposure data were collected. Potential predictor variables were analyzed using Cox proportional regression model to identify risk factors associated with severe injuries (time loss>28days). Thirty-one injuries occurred during the rugby season. The match and training injury incidence rates were 59.3 injuries and 3.3 injuries per 1000 player-hours, respectively. Lower limb injuries were most common and most severe. The ankle joint was the most prevalent site of injury, and ligamentous injury was most common (48.4%). Nine severe injuries were sustained resulting in an average time loss of 51.3±14.6days. Female (hazard ratio [HR]=8.35; 95% confidence intervals [CI]=2.01-34.8), slower (HR=3.51; 95% CI=1.17-10.5), and less agile (HR=2.22; 95% CI=1.26-3.92) players as well as those with hip flexors tightness (HR=1.12; 95% CI=1.00-1.25) were at significantly greater risk for sustaining severe injuries. Limited studies are available on risk factors associated with amateur rugby players in the Sevens version. The development of gender-specific injury prevention measures that emphasize speed and agility training, and improve hip flexor extensibility may be important to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... has been linked to some cancers: Links between air pollution and cancer risk have been found. These include ... between lung cancer and secondhand tobacco smoke , outdoor air pollution, and asbestos . Drinking water that contains a large ...

  1. Risk factors.

    PubMed

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  2. Development and Validation of a Risk Factor Scoring System for First-Trimester Prediction of Pre-Eclampsia

    PubMed Central

    GOETZINGER, Katherine R.; TUULI, Methodius G.; CAHILL, Alison G.; MACONES, George A.; ODIBO, Anthony O.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To develop a multi-parameter risk-based scoring system for first-trimester prediction of pre-eclampsia and to validate this scoring system in our patient population. Study Design Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of 1200 patients presenting for first-trimester aneuploidy screening. Maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) levels were measured and bilateral uterine artery (UA) Doppler studies performed. Using the first half of the study population, a prediction model for pre-eclampsia was created. Test performance characteristics were used to determine the optimal score for predicting pre-eclampsia. This model was then validated in the second half of the population. Results Significant risk factors and their weighted scores derived from the prediction model were chronic hypertension [4], history of pre-eclampsia [3], pre-gestational diabetes [2], body mass index ≥ 30kg/m2 [2], bilateral UA notching [1], and PAPP-A MoM <10th percentile [1]. The AUC for the risk scoring system was 0.76 (95% CI 0. 69–0.83), and the optimal threshold for predicting pre-eclampsia was a total score of ≥6. This AUC did not differ significantly from the AUC observed in our validation cohort [AUC 0.78 (95% CI 0.69–0.86), p=0.75]. Conclusion Our proposed risk factor scoring system demonstrates modest accuracy but excellent reproducibility for first-trimester prediction of pre-eclampsia. PMID:24705967

  3. Predictability and Risk Factors for Development of New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus After Transplant in the Saudi Population.

    PubMed

    Alshamsi, Shaikha; Basri, Nawal; Flaiw, Ahmed; Ghamdi, Ghormullah; Hejaili, Fayez; Shaheen, Faissal A M; Sheayria, Foud; Jaradat, Maha; Al Sayyari, Abdulla

    2016-06-01

    The study objective was to investigate the predictability and risk factors for the development of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant in the Saudi population. This was a retrospective observational cohort study in adult kidney transplant recipients who developed new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant. Patients with and without new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant were compared for demographic factors, blood glucose levels at 4-hour intervals for 24 hours after transplant, and serum creatinine levels at 6 and 12 months after transplant. Of 279 patients included in our study, 15.5% developed new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after a mean follow-up of 4.6 ± 2.1 years after transplant. Patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant were significant older (P = .001), had a higher body mass index (P = .001), and had higher fasting blood glucose levels 24 hours after transplant (P = .03). No significant differences were observed regarding sex, transplant type, or serum creatinine levels at 6 and 12 months. Risk factors for new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant are body mass index (P = .001; relative risk of 1.26), fasting blood glucose at 24 hours (P = .001; relative risk of 1.3), age (P = .001; relative risk of 1.44), and family history of diabetes mellitus (P = .001; relative risk of 31.3). Risk factors for developing new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus were age, heavier weight, body mass index, family history of diabetes mellitus, and having higher fasting blood glucose levels 24 hours after transplant, with family history of diabetes mellitus being an especially very high significant risk factor.

  4. Predictive accuracy of dynamic risk factors for aboriginal and non-aboriginal sex offenders: an exploratory comparison using STABLE-2007.

    PubMed

    Helmus, Leslie; Babchishin, Kelly M; Blais, Julie

    2012-09-01

    Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal (n = 88) and non-Aboriginal (n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.

  5. Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism.

    PubMed

    Scoones, Carwyn D; Willis, Gwenda M; Grace, Randolph C

    2012-01-01

    Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.

  6. An artificial neural network prediction model of congenital heart disease based on risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Zheng, Jianfei; Luo, Jiayou; Zeng, Rong; Feng, Na; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun

    2017-01-01

    Abstract An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the risks of congenital heart disease (CHD) in pregnant women. This hospital-based case-control study involved 119 CHD cases and 239 controls all recruited from birth defect surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province between July 2013 and June 2014. All subjects were interviewed face-to-face to fill in a questionnaire that covered 36 CHD-related variables. The 358 subjects were randomly divided into a training set and a testing set at the ratio of 85:15. The training set was used to identify the significant predictors of CHD by univariate logistic regression analyses and develop a standard feed-forward back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for the prediction of CHD. The testing set was used to test and evaluate the performance of the ANN model. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed on SPSS 18.0. The ANN models were developed on Matlab 7.1. The univariate logistic regression identified 15 predictors that were significantly associated with CHD, including education level (odds ratio  = 0.55), gravidity (1.95), parity (2.01), history of abnormal reproduction (2.49), family history of CHD (5.23), maternal chronic disease (4.19), maternal upper respiratory tract infection (2.08), environmental pollution around maternal dwelling place (3.63), maternal exposure to occupational hazards (3.53), maternal mental stress (2.48), paternal chronic disease (4.87), paternal exposure to occupational hazards (2.51), intake of vegetable/fruit (0.45), intake of fish/shrimp/meat/egg (0.59), and intake of milk/soymilk (0.55). After many trials, we selected a 3-layer BPNN model with 15, 12, and 1 neuron in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively, as the best prediction model. The prediction model has accuracies of 0.91 and 0.86 on the training and testing sets, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and Yuden Index on the testing set (training set) are 0.78 (0.83), 0.90 (0

  7. Can self-reported behavioral factors predict incident sexually transmitted diseases in high-risk African-American men?

    PubMed Central

    Slavinsky, J.; Rosenberg, D. M.; DiCarlo, R. P.; Kissinger, P.

    2000-01-01

    The known link between sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), coupled with the increasing prevalence of HIV in African-American men, makes understanding STD transmission trends in this group important for directing future preventive measures. The goal of this study was to determine if self-reported behavioral factors are predictive of incident sexually transmitted diseases in a group of high risk, HIV-negative African-American men. Five hundred and sixty-two "high risk" (defined as having four or more partners in the last year or having been diagnosed with an STD in the last year) HIV-negative African-American men were administered a baseline behavioral survey and followed to detect an incident STD. Overall, 19% (n = 108) of the patients acquired an incident STD during the study period. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the only factor associated with an incident STD was age < or = 19 (hazard ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 4.54). No other risk factors were statistically significant. In conclusion, self-reported behavioral factors, such as substance use and sexual practices, do not seem to be a good measure of STD risk among a group of high risk, HIV-negative, African-American men. PMID:10946531

  8. A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013–2014

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections. PMID:26633446

  9. A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013-2014.

    PubMed

    Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

    2015-12-01

    This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections.

  10. Risk factors for predicting diarrheal duration and morbidity in children with acute diarrhea.

    PubMed

    Patel, Archana B; Ovung, Ronithung; Badhoniya, Neetu B; Dibley, Michael J

    2012-04-01

    To identify baseline risk factors for prolonged diarrheal duration and subsequent complications in children aged 6 to 59 mo with acute diarrhea who participated in a micronutrient clinical trial in a tertiary care hospital. The adjusted odds ratio or incidence risk ratios (IRR) of the baseline variables for prolongation of diarrheal duration (cox proportional hazard model), diarrhea >7 d (multiple logistic regressions), severe dehydration experienced after hospitalization (poisson regression models) was estimated. Fever (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19, p = 0.02), dehydration (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10-1.59, p = 0.003), dysentery (OR 1.41 95% CI 1.09-1.82, p = 0.008), those who received medications (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.39, p = 0.02), and weight for age Z-score ≤2 (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.46, p = 0.004) were at a greater risk of prolonged diarrhea. Diarrhea >7 d was associated with younger age (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14, p = 0.003), female child (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.19-4.55, p = 0.013), diarrheal duration before enrolment (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09, p < 0.001), fever (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.23-2.49, p = 0.002) and the weight for age Z-score ≤2 (OR 4.32, 95% CI 2.03-9.16, p < 0.001). Severe dehydration after hospitalization was associated with dehydration at baseline (OR 6.7, 95% CI 2-3.0, p < 0.001), incomplete immunization (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.5-7.69, p < 0.001), failure to receive any medication(OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.26-7.14, p = 0.01). Few studies assess risk factors for diarrheal morbidity prospectively. The present study showed that children of acute diarrhea with above risk factors need stricter monitoring for complications to reduce diarrheal mortality.

  11. Factors predicting desired autonomy in medical decisions: Risk-taking and gambling behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Fortune, Erica E; Shotwell, Jessica J; Buccellato, Kiara; Moran, Erin

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated factors that influence patients’ desired level of autonomy in medical decisions. Analyses included previously supported demographic variables in addition to risk-taking and gambling behaviors, which exhibit a strong relationship with overall health and decision-making, but have not been investigated in conjunction with medical autonomy. Participants (N = 203) completed measures on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, including two measures of autonomy. Two hierarchical regressions revealed that the predictors explained a significant amount of variance for both measures, but the contribution of predictor variables was incongruent between models. Possible causes for this incongruence and implications for patient–physician interactions are discussed. PMID:28070406

  12. Factors predicting desired autonomy in medical decisions: Risk-taking and gambling behaviors.

    PubMed

    Fortune, Erica E; Shotwell, Jessica J; Buccellato, Kiara; Moran, Erin

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated factors that influence patients' desired level of autonomy in medical decisions. Analyses included previously supported demographic variables in addition to risk-taking and gambling behaviors, which exhibit a strong relationship with overall health and decision-making, but have not been investigated in conjunction with medical autonomy. Participants (N = 203) completed measures on Amazon's Mechanical Turk, including two measures of autonomy. Two hierarchical regressions revealed that the predictors explained a significant amount of variance for both measures, but the contribution of predictor variables was incongruent between models. Possible causes for this incongruence and implications for patient-physician interactions are discussed.

  13. Predictive value of specific risk factors, symptoms and signs, in diagnosing obstructive sleep apnoea and its severity.

    PubMed

    Pillar; Peled; Katz; Lavie

    1994-12-01

    A positive diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is based on a combination of characteristic symptoms and polysomnographic findings. The present study evaluated the specificity and sensitivity of several risk factors, signs and symptoms in predicting an Apnoea Index in 86 patients referred to the sleep laboratory with suspected OSA. All 86 subjects completed a detailed questionnaire, were interviewed, underwent a brief physical examination, and then a whole-night polysomnographic study. Stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that self reporting on apnoeas, neck circumference index (NCI), age, and a tendency to fall asleep unintentionally, were all significant positive predictors of apnoea index (AI), explaining 41.8% of the variability. The sensitivity of the model for predicting OSA (taking OSA as AI > 10) was 92.2%, specificity was 18.2% and the positive predictive value was 76.6%. Raising the cut-off AI values resulted in decreased sensitivity and increased specificity. Applying the predicting equation of AI to another group of 50 patients referred to the sleep laboratory with suspected OSA revealed similar results. However, running the equation on 105 offspring of OSA patients who did not complain of OSA-associated symptoms resulted in 32% sensitivity and 94% specificity in predicting OSA. It is concluded that questionnaires, interviews and physical examination, can only vaguely predict AI, and cannot replace polysomnographic recordings. However, the low rates of false negative in predicting AI > 10, and the low rates of false positive in predicting AI > 50, can be used for specific purposes.

  14. Risk factors for predicting early variceal rebleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Liang; Ji, Feng; Xu, Qin-Wei; Zhang, Mie-Qing

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To analyze the clinical risk factors for early variceal rebleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL). METHODS: 342 cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices who received elective EVL to prevent bleeding or rebleeding at our endoscopy center between January 2005 and July 2010. were included in this study. The early rebleeding cases after EVL were confirmed by clinical signs or endoscopy. A case-control study was performed comparing the patients presenting with early rebleeding with those without this complication. RESULTS: The incidence of early rebleeding after EVL was 7.60%, and the morbidity of rebleeding was 26.9%. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that four variables were independent risk factors for early rebleeding: moderate to excessive ascites [odds ratio (OR) 62.83, 95% CI: 9.39-420.56, P < 0.001], the number of bands placed (OR 17.36, 95% CI: 4.00-75.34, P < 0.001), the extent of varices (OR 15.41, 95% CI: 2.84-83.52, P = 0.002) and prothrombin time (PT) > 18 s (OR 11.35, 95% CI: 1.93-66.70, P = 0.007). CONCLUSION: The early rebleeding rate after EVL is mainly affected by the volume of ascites, number of rubber bands used to ligate, severity of varices and prolonged PT. Effective measures for prevention and treatment should be adopted before and after EVL. PMID:21876624

  15. Multiple factors in the prediction of risk of proliferative diabetic retinopathy.

    PubMed

    Rand, L I; Krolewski, A S; Aiello, L M; Warram, J H; Baker, R S; Maki, T

    1985-12-05

    To identify risk factors for the development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy, we compared 111 patients with longstanding insulin-dependent diabetes who had proliferative retinopathy (cases) with 81 patients with diabetes of similar duration (an average of 26 years) who did not have proliferative diabetic retinopathy (controls). The cases had diabetes that was more difficult to manage, as evidenced by their more frequent blood sugar levels above 200 mg per deciliter (11 mmol per liter) on routine clinic visits (odds ratio, 1.6 for each increment of 10 per cent in the relative frequency), and they expended less effort in managing their diabetes, as indicated by their less frequent testing of urine for sugar (odds ratio, 0.3). Among those who did not have myopia, the cases also had an excess of the HLA-DR phenotypes 4/0, 3/0, or X/X (odds ratio, 10.0). Among those with myopia, these phenotypes did not carry an increased risk of proliferative retinopathy. These results support a multifactorial model for the development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy; however, the mechanisms of action of the identified factors remain unknown.

  16. Risk factors of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in obese early adolescents: a prediction model using scoring system.

    PubMed

    Supriyatno, Bambang; Said, Mardjanis; Hermani, Bambang; Sjarir, Damayanti R; Sastroasmoro, Sudigdo

    2010-07-01

    to obtain the OSAS prevalence and risk factors of OSAS in obese early adolescents and to create a scoring system based on risk factors for diagnosing OSAS. an observational study in Jakarta, November 2007 until December 2008 on obese adolescents aged 10-12 years with snoring. Subjects underwent clinical examination, lung function test, paranasal sinus X-ray, and polisomnography. Measured outcomes were diagnosis of OSAS; sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios of a scoring system based on risk factors. the prevalence of OSAS in obese early adolescents is 38.2% using AHI cut-off point of ≥3 on PSG. Tonsillar hypertrophy, adenoid hypertrophy, and neck circumference were the main risk factors. Scoring system was designed based on these results: OS= T + A + NC; OS= OSAS score; T= tonsil hypertrophy (≥T3 scored 1, predictive value 100% (95%CI 100 to 100%), negative predictive value 81% (95%CI 73 to 89%), unlimited LR(+), LR(-) of 0.38 (CI 95% 0.6 to 0.56). a scoring system based on tonsillar hypertrophy, adenoid hypertrophy, and neck circumference has sensitivity and specificity of 62% and 100% in diagnosing OSAS.

  17. Effect of condom-use measures in predicting sexually transmitted diseases: variation by individual and contextual factors of sexual risk.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Y; Li, X; Yang, H; Hong, Y; Fang, X; Wang, B; Stanton, B

    2012-09-01

    Inconsistent findings in the global literature regarding the effectiveness of condom use against sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) may result from variations in the measurement of condom use. In this study, we assess the sensitivity and specificity of six condom-use measures in predicting STD infection, and assess the difference in sensitivity and specificity by type of sexual partner (clients versus stable partners), type of STD, ethnicity (Han versus non-Han), years of formal schooling (≤6 versus >6 years) and level of risk of STD exposure (high versus low). Cross-sectional data were obtained from 454 female sex workers (FSWs) in Guangxi, China. Measurements of condom use were created along types of use (any use, consistent use, correct use, or the combination of consistent and correct use) and periods of recall (life time, last month or recent three sexual episodes). Measures of consistent use had higher sensitivity and lower specificity than measures of any use in predicting STDs among FSWs, regardless of the recall period and type of sexual partner. Incorporating correct use improved the measures of consistent use. Measures of consistent use and the combination of consistent and correct use demonstrated high sensitivity in predicting particular STDs. They showed higher sensitivity in predicting STDs among FSWs who reported higher risk for STD exposure than among FSWs who reported lower risk of exposure to STDs. In conclusion, the findings suggest the superiority of consistent use and correct use of condoms in predicting STD infection. The findings also underscore the importance of considering the context of sexual risk such as type of sexual partner and risk of exposure to STD infection when we measure condom use. Future studies of condom effectiveness should collect and quantify these contextual and individual factors among the target population.

  18. Predictive risk factors of free flap thrombosis in breast reconstruction surgery.

    PubMed

    Masoomi, Hossein; Clark, Emily G; Paydar, Keyianoosh Z; Evans, Gregory R D; Nguyen, Audrey; Kobayashi, Mark R; Wirth, Garrett A

    2014-11-01

    Vascular thrombosis is one of the major postoperative complications of free flap microvascular breast reconstruction operations. It is associated with higher morbidity, higher cost, increased length of hospital stay, and potentially flap loss. Our purpose is to evaluate the rate of this complication and whether patient characteristics play a role. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database, we examined the clinical data of patients who underwent free flap breast reconstruction between 2009 and 2010 in the United States. Multivariate and univariate regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors of flap thrombosis. A total of 15,211 patients underwent free flap breast reconstruction surgery (immediate reconstruction: 43%). The most common flap was the free deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP) flap (53.6%), followed by free transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) flap (43.1%), free superficial inferior epigastric artery (SIEA) flap (2%), and free gluteal artery perforator (GAP) flap (1.3%). The overall rate of flap thrombosis was 2.4 %, with the highest rate seen in the SIEA group (11.4%) and the lowest in the TRAM group (1.7%). Peripheral vascular disease (adjusted odds ration [AOR] 10.61), SIEA flap (AOR, 4.76) and delayed reconstruction (AOR, 1.42) were found to be statistically significant risk factors for flap thrombosis. Other comorbidities were not linked. While the overall rate of flap thrombosis in free flap breast reconstruction was relatively low (2.4%), Plastic Surgeons should be aware that patients with peripheral vascular disease and those undergoing free SIEA flap are at higher risk of flap thrombosis and they should closely monitor flaps to increase the chance for early salvage.

  19. Predictive risk factors for postoperative tetany in female patients with Graves' disease.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, H; Noguchi, S; Murakami, T; Uchino, S; Watanabe, S; Ohshima, A; Toda, M; Yamashita, H; Kawamoto, H

    2001-04-01

    Postoperative tetany occurs in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism caused by a deficiency in calcium and vitamin D concomitant with transient hypoparathyroidism induced by surgery. In the present study, we further clarified the risk factors by referring to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and alkaline phosphatase. The serum levels of intact parathyroid hormone, calcium and other electrolytes, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] were measured preoperatively in 178 female patients with Graves' disease who underwent subtotal thyroidectomy. Of the 178 female patients, 15 (8.4%) developed tetany. Univariate analysis of 16 possible risk factors showed that 2 were statistically significant: serum 25(OH)D and alkaline phosphatase levels. The incidence of tetany according to the serum levels of 25(OH)D and alkaline phosphatase was 19.1% (9/47) in patients with 25(OH)D < or = 25 nmol/L and alkaline phosphatase > 155, 11.8% (4/34) in those with 25(OH)D < or = 25 nmol/L and alkaline phosphatase < or = 155, 6.7% (2/30) in those with 25(OH)D > 25 nmol/L and alkaline phosphatase > 155, and 0% (0/50) in those with 25(OH)D > 25 nmol/L and alkaline phosphatase < or = 155. Patients with Graves' disease who have vitamin D deficiency with high serum alkaline phosphatase levels are the highest-risk group for postoperative tetany. Serum 25(OH)D and alkaline phosphatase should be monitored in patients with Graves' disease.

  20. Systematic Selection of Key Logistic Regression Variables for Risk Prediction Analyses: A Five-Factor Maximum Model.

    PubMed

    Hewett, Timothy E; Webster, Kate E; Hurd, Wendy J

    2017-08-16

    The evolution of clinical practice and medical technology has yielded an increasing number of clinical measures and tests to assess a patient's progression and return to sport readiness after injury. The plethora of available tests may be burdensome to clinicians in the absence of evidence that demonstrates the utility of a given measurement. Thus, there is a critical need to identify a discrete number of metrics to capture during clinical assessment to effectively and concisely guide patient care. The data sources included Pubmed and PMC Pubmed Central articles on the topic. Therefore, we present a systematic approach to injury risk analyses and how this concept may be used in algorithms for risk analyses for primary anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in healthy athletes and patients after ACL reconstruction. In this article, we present the five-factor maximum model, which states that in any predictive model, a maximum of 5 variables will contribute in a meaningful manner to any risk factor analysis. We demonstrate how this model already exists for prevention of primary ACL injury, how this model may guide development of the second ACL injury risk analysis, and how the five-factor maximum model may be applied across the injury spectrum for development of the injury risk analysis.

  1. Dietary Patterns in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes Predict Cardiometabolic Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Mathe, Nonsikelelo; Pisa, Pedro T; Johnson, Jeffrey A; Johnson, Steven T

    2016-08-01

    Examining the diets of people living with type 2 diabetes may improve understanding of how diet affects disease progression. We derived dietary patterns in adults living with type 2 diabetes and explored associations among patterns, sociodemographic variables and cardiometabolic risk factors. Dietary patterns were derived from food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) in 196 adults with type 2 diabetes using principal components analysis (PCA). Multilinear regression models were fitted for the differing dietary pattern scores so as to estimate the marginal contribution of each variable explaining variations in diet. Differences in clinical variables across dietary patterns, adjusting for sex, smoking and total energy intake, were assessed. Three principal components (PCs), or patterns, were identified, explaining 56.5% of the total variance in diet: (PC1) fried foods, cakes and ice cream; (PC2) fish and vegetables; and (PC3) pasta, potatoes and breads. Female sex, current smoker and total energy were significant associated with patterns. Total energy accounted for the greatest amount of variance in each pattern (11.2% for fried foods, cakes and ice cream, 3.89% for fish and vegetables and 9.21% for pasta, potatoes and breads). After adjustment for sex, smoking and total energy, the pasta, potatoes and breads pattern was inversely associated with systolic blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. Of the 3 distinct diet patterns characterized, the carbohydrate-based pattern was most closely associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. To better understand and improve self-management by people living with type 2 diabetes through dietary modifications, further improvements in measuring and assessing diet using comparable instruments and comparisons with apparently healthy populations is required. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Diabetes Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Predictive factors of relapse in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients successfully treated with methotrexate alone.

    PubMed

    Couder, Florence; Massardier, Jérôme; You, Benoît; Abbas, Fatima; Hajri, Touria; Lotz, Jean-Pierre; Schott, Anne-Marie; Golfier, François

    2016-07-01

    Patients with 2000 FIGO low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia are commonly treated with single-agent chemotherapy. Methotrexate is widely used in this indication in Europe. Analysis of relapse after treatment and identification of factors associated with relapse would help understand their potential impacts on 2000 FIGO score evolution and chemotherapy management of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients. This retrospective study analyzes the predictive factors of relapse in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients whose hormone chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) normalized with methotrexate alone. Between 1999 and 2014, 993 patients with gestational trophoblastic neoplasia were identified in the French Trophoblastic Disease Reference Center database, of which 465 were low-risk patients whose hCG normalized with methotrexate alone. Using univariate and multivariate analysis we identified significant predictive factors for relapse after methotrexate. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the outcome of patients. The 5-year recurrence rate of low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients whose hCG normalized with methotrexate alone was 5.7% (confidence interval [IC], 3.86-8.46). Univariate analysis identified an antecedent pregnancy resulting in a delivery (HR = 5.96; 95% CI, 1.40-25.4, P = .016), a number of methotrexate courses superior to 5 courses (5-8 courses vs 1-4: HR = 6.19; 95% CI, 1.43-26.8, P = .015; 9 courses and more vs 1-4: HR = 6.80; 95% CI, 1.32-35.1, P = .022), and hCG normalization delay centered to the mean as predictive factors of recurrence (HR = 1.27; 95% CI, 1.09-1.49, P = .003). Multivariate analysis confirmed the type of antecedent pregnancy and the number of methotrexate courses as independent predictive factors of recurrence. A low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia arising after a normal delivery had an 8.66 times higher relapse risk than that of a postmole gestational trophoblastic neoplasia

  3. Artificial neural networks identify the predictive values of risk factors on the conversion of amnestic mild cognitive impairment.

    PubMed

    Tabaton, Massimo; Odetti, Patrizio; Cammarata, Sergio; Borghi, Roberta; Monacelli, Fiammetta; Caltagirone, Carlo; Bossù, Paola; Buscema, Massimo; Grossi, Enzo

    2010-01-01

    The search for markers that are able to predict the conversion of amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for early mechanistic therapies. Using artificial neural networks (ANNs), 22 variables that are known risk factors of AD were analyzed in 80 patients with aMCI, for a period spanning at least 2 years. The cases were chosen from 195 aMCI subjects recruited by four Italian Alzheimer's disease units. The parameters of glucose metabolism disorder, female gender, and apolipoprotein E epsilon3/epsilon4 genotype were found to be the biological variables with high relevance for predicting the conversion of aMCI. The scores of attention and short term memory tests also were predictors. Surprisingly, the plasma concentration of amyloid-beta (42) had a low predictive value. The results support the utility of ANN analysis as a new tool in the interpretation of data from heterogeneous and distinct sources.

  4. Health risk factor modification predicts incidence of diabetes in an employee population: results of an 8-year longitudinal cohort study.

    PubMed

    Rolando, Lori; Byrne, Daniel W; McGown, Paula W; Goetzel, Ron Z; Elasy, Tom A; Yarbrough, Mary I

    2013-04-01

    To understand risk factor modification effect on Type 2 diabetes incidence in a workforce population. Annual health risk assessment data (N = 3125) in years 1 through 4 were used to predict diabetes development in years 5 through 8. Employees who reduced their body mass index from 30 or more to less than 30 decreased their chances of developing diabetes (odds ratio = 0.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.93), while those who became obese increased their diabetes risk (odds ratio = 8.85, 95% confidence interval: 2.53 to 31.0). Weight reduction observed over a long period can result in clinically important reductions in diabetes incidence. Workplace health promotion programs may prevent diabetes among workers by encouraging weight loss and adoption of healthy lifestyle habits.

  5. Health Risk Factor Modification Predicts Incidence of Diabetes in an Employee Population: Results of an 8-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Rolando, Lori; Byrne, Daniel W.; McGown, Paula W.; Goetzel, Ron Z.; Elasy, Tom; Yarbrough, Mary I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To understand risk factor modification effect on Type 2 Diabetes incidence in a workforce population. Methods Annual Health Risk Assessment (HRA) data (n=3125) in years 1 through 4 were used to predict diabetes development in years 5 through 8. Results Employees who reduced their BMI from ≥30 to < 30 decreased their chances of developing diabetes (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.93), while those who became obese increased their diabetes risk (OR 8.85, 95% CI 2.53 to 31.0). Conclusions Weight reduction observed over a long period can result in clinically important reductions in diabetes incidence. Workplace health promotion programs may prevent diabetes among workers by encouraging weight loss and adoption of healthy lifestyle habits. PMID:23532193

  6. Body Fat Equations and Electrical Bioimpedance Values in Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Eutrophic and Overweight Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Faria, Franciane Rocha; Faria, Eliane Rodrigues; Cecon, Roberta Stofeles; Barbosa Júnior, Djalma Adão; Franceschini, Sylvia do Carmo Castro; Peluzio, Maria do Carmo Gouveia; Ribeiro, Andréia Queiroz; Lira, Pedro Israel Cabral; Cecon, Paulo Roberto; Priore, Silvia Eloiza

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze body fat anthropometric equations and electrical bioimpedance analysis (BIA) in the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors in eutrophic and overweight adolescents. 210 adolescents were divided into eutrophic group (G1) and overweight group (G2). The percentage of body fat (% BF) was estimated using 10 body fat anthropometric equations and 2 BIA. We measured lipid profiles, uric acid, insulin, fasting glucose, homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and blood pressure. We found that 76.7% of the adolescents exhibited inadequacy of at least one biochemical parameter or clinical cardiovascular risk. Higher values of triglycerides (TG) (P = 0.001), insulin, and HOMA-IR (P < 0.001) were observed in the G2 adolescents. In multivariate linear regression analysis, the % BF from equation (5) was associated with TG, diastolic blood pressure, and insulin in G1. Among the G2 adolescents, the % BF estimated by (5) and (9) was associated with LDL, TG, insulin, and the HOMA-IR. Body fat anthropometric equations were associated with cardiovascular risk factors and should be used to assess the nutritional status of adolescents. In this study, equation (5) was associated with a higher number of cardiovascular risk factors independent of the nutritional status of adolescents. PMID:23762051

  7. Residual Risk Factors to Predict Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Patients with and without Diabetes Mellitus.

    PubMed

    Lin, Fang-Ju; Tseng, Wei-Kung; Yin, Wei-Hsian; Yeh, Hung-I; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Wu, Chau-Chung

    2017-08-23

    A prospective observational study was conducted to investigate the residual risk factors to predict recurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with a high prevalence under lipid-lowering therapy, particularly in the subpopulations of diabetic and nondiabetic individuals. A total of 5,483 adults (with a mean age of 66.4 and 73.3% male) with established coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral artery disease were identified from the T-SPARCLE multi-center registry. Of them, 38.6% had diabetes. The residual risk factors for MACE are divergent in these atherosclerotic patients with and without diabetes. In diabetic subpopulation, the risk of MACE was significantly increased with heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 (vs. stage 1-2), without beta blocker use, and higher non-HDL-C, after controlling for covariates including statin use and the intensity of therapy. Increased LDL-C and TG levels were also associated with increased risk, but to a much less extent. Among nondiabetic individuals, HF, CKD stage 4-5, and history of myocardial infarction were the significant independent predictors of MACE. It is suggested that ASCVD patients with concomitant diabetes need stricter control of lipid, particularly non-HDL-C levels, to reduce cardiovascular risk when on statin therapy.

  8. The Risk Factors That Predict Chronic Hypertension After Delivery in Women With a History of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Ji-Won; Park, Sung-Ji; Oh, Soo-Young; Chang, Sung-A; Lee, Sang-Chol; Park, Seung Woo; Kim, Duk-Kyung

    2015-10-01

    Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) is one of the most important lethal complications in pregnant mothers. It is also associated with the subsequent development of chronic hypertension. The objective of this study was to identify the clinical risk factors of postpartum chronic hypertension in women diagnosed with HDP.Six hundred patients as HDP, who diagnosed and followed-up at least 6 month after delivery, were included in the study. We divided the included subjects in 2 groups based on the development of postpartum chronic hypertension: presenting with the chronic hypertension, "case group" (n = 41) and without chronic hypertension, "control group" (n = 559).Clinical and demographic factors were evaluated. By multiple regression analysis, early onset hypertension with end-organ dysfunction, smoking, higher prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), and comorbidities, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS), were associated with progression to chronic hypertension in the postpartum period. The value of area under the curves (AUC) for the 5 models, that generated to combine the significant factors, increased from 0.645 to 0.831, which indicated improved prediction of progression to the chronic hypertension. Additional multivariate analysis revealed significant specific risk factors.This retrospective single hospital-based study demonstrated that the clinical risk factors, that is early onset hypertension with end-organ dysfunction, smoking, and higher prepregnancy BMI, were significant independent predictors of chronic hypertension in women after delivery. Identification of risk factors allowed us to narrow the subject field for monitoring and managing high blood pressure in the postpartum period.

  9. Does von Willebrand factor improve the predictive ability of current risk stratification scores in patients with atrial fibrillation?

    PubMed Central

    García-Fernández, Amaya; Roldán, Vanessa; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Hernández-Romero, Diana; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Lip, Gregory Y. H.; Marín, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    Von Willebrand factor (vWF) is a biomarker of endothelial dysfunction. We investigated its role on prognosis in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and determined whether its addition to clinical risk stratification schemes improved event-risk prediction. Consecutive outpatients with non-valvular AF were recruited and rates of thrombotic/cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality were recorded. The effect of vWF on prognosis was calculated using a Cox regression model. Improvements in predictive accuracy over current scores were determined by calculating the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), comparison of receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). 1215 patients (49% males, age 76 (71–81) years) were included. Follow-up was almost 7 years. Significant associations were found between vWF and cardiovascular events, stroke, mortality and bleeding. Based on IDI and NRI, addition of vWF to CHA2DS2-VASc statistically improved its predictive value, but c-indexes were not significantly different. For major bleeding, the addition of vWF to HAS-BLED improved the c-index but not IDI or NRI. DCA showed minimal net benefit. vWF acts as a simple prognostic biomarker in AF and, whilst its addition to current scores statistically improves prediction for some endpoints, absolute changes and impact on clinical decision-making are marginal. PMID:28134282

  10. Risk factors to predict the development of chronic kidney disease in patients with lupus nephritis.

    PubMed

    Park, D J; Kang, J H; Lee, J W; Lee, K E; Kim, T J; Park, Y W; Lee, J S; Choi, Y D; Lee, S S

    2017-10-01

    Objectives We analyzed the clinical follow-up results of 88 lupus nephritis patients to find prognostic factors for the development of chronic kidney disease in ethnically homogeneous Korean patients with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis. Methods Sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory, and treatment-related data at the time of kidney biopsy and during follow-up were obtained. Renal biopsy specimens were reclassified according to the International Society of Pathology/Renal Pathology Society classification, separately, by two renal pathologists blinded to the previous classification. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model to identify independent risk factors for chronic kidney disease in lupus nephritis patients. Results Eighteen of 88 patients (20.5%) developed chronic kidney disease during a mean follow-up of 47.6 months (range: 12-96 months). Patients who developed chronic kidney disease were older at onset of lupus nephritis, had less education, and were more likely to have hypertension; they had lower serum albumin levels, lower platelet levels, higher serum creatinine levels, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher chronicity index, and lower frequency of anti-ribosomal P antibodies, and they were less likely to be in complete remission in the first year. In stepwise multivariable analyses, hypertension, lower glomerular filtration rate, and failure to achieve complete remission in the first year of treatment were significant predictors of the development of chronic kidney disease in lupus nephritis patients. Conclusions These findings suggest that patients with hypertension and decreased kidney function at the onset of lupus nephritis and showing a poor response to immunosuppressive drugs in the first year should be monitored carefully and managed aggressively to avoid deterioration of kidney function.

  11. Risk Factors and Prevention

    MedlinePlus

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  12. Delayed neuropsychological sequelae after carbon monoxide poisoning: predictive risk factors in the Emergency Department. A retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Pepe, Giuseppe; Castelli, Matteo; Nazerian, Peiman; Vanni, Simone; Del Panta, Massimo; Gambassi, Francesco; Botti, Primo; Missanelli, Andrea; Grifoni, Stefano

    2011-03-17

    Delayed neuropsychological sequelae (DNS) commonly occur after recovery from acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. The preventive role and the indications for hyperbaric oxygen therapy in the acute setting are still controversial. Early identification of patients at risk in the Emergency Department might permit an improvement in quality of care. We conducted a retrospective study to identify predictive risk factors for DNS development in the Emergency Department. We retrospectively considered all CO-poisoned patients admitted to the Emergency Department of Careggi University General Hospital (Florence, Italy) from 1992 to 2007. Patients were invited to participate in three follow-up visits at one, six and twelve months from hospital discharge. Clinical and biohumoral data were collected; univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictive risk factors for DNS. Three hundred forty seven patients were admitted to the Emergency Department for acute CO poisoning from 1992 to 2007; 141/347 patients participated in the follow-up visit at one month from hospital discharge. Thirty four/141 patients were diagnosed with DNS (24.1%). Five/34 patients previously diagnosed as having DNS presented to the follow-up visit at six months, reporting a complete recovery. The following variables (collected before or upon Emergency Department admission) were associated to DNS development at one month from hospital discharge in the univariate analysis: CO exposure duration >6 hours, a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score <9, seizures, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, elevated creatine phosphokinase concentration and leukocytosis. There was no significant correlation with age, sex, voluntary exposure, headache, transient loss of consciousness, GCS between 14 and 9, arterial lactate and carboxyhemoglobin concentration. The multivariate analysis confirmed as independent prognostic factors GCS <9 (OR 7.15; CI 95%: 1.04-48.8) and leukocytosis (OR 3.31; CI 95%: 1

  13. Delayed neuropsychological sequelae after carbon monoxide poisoning: predictive risk factors in the Emergency Department. A retrospective study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Delayed neuropsychological sequelae (DNS) commonly occur after recovery from acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. The preventive role and the indications for hyperbaric oxygen therapy in the acute setting are still controversial. Early identification of patients at risk in the Emergency Department might permit an improvement in quality of care. We conducted a retrospective study to identify predictive risk factors for DNS development in the Emergency Department. Methods We retrospectively considered all CO-poisoned patients admitted to the Emergency Department of Careggi University General Hospital (Florence, Italy) from 1992 to 2007. Patients were invited to participate in three follow-up visits at one, six and twelve months from hospital discharge. Clinical and biohumoral data were collected; univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictive risk factors for DNS. Results Three hundred forty seven patients were admitted to the Emergency Department for acute CO poisoning from 1992 to 2007; 141/347 patients participated in the follow-up visit at one month from hospital discharge. Thirty four/141 patients were diagnosed with DNS (24.1%). Five/34 patients previously diagnosed as having DNS presented to the follow-up visit at six months, reporting a complete recovery. The following variables (collected before or upon Emergency Department admission) were associated to DNS development at one month from hospital discharge in the univariate analysis: CO exposure duration >6 hours, a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score <9, seizures, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, elevated creatine phosphokinase concentration and leukocytosis. There was no significant correlation with age, sex, voluntary exposure, headache, transient loss of consciousness, GCS between 14 and 9, arterial lactate and carboxyhemoglobin concentration. The multivariate analysis confirmed as independent prognostic factors GCS <9 (OR 7.15; CI 95%: 1.04-48.8) and leukocytosis (OR 3

  14. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  15. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as ‘dyslexic’ or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Results Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Conclusions Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. PMID:25832320

  16. Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

    PubMed

    Clyde, Merlise A; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S; Poole, Elizabeth M; Doherty, Jennifer A; Goodman, Marc T; Ness, Roberta B; Risch, Harvey A; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E; Cramer, Daniel W; Cunningham, Julie M; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L; Edwards, Robert P; Fridley, Brooke L; Goode, Ellen L; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B; Olson, Sara H; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C; Rothstein, Joseph H; Sellers, Thomas A; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J; Vierkant, Robert A; Wicklund, Kristine G; Wu, Anna H; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S; Schildkraut, Joellen M

    2016-10-15

    Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. An accurate risk score based on anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors to predict the development of type 2 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Matthias B; Hoffmann, Kurt; Boeing, Heiner; Linseisen, Jakob; Rohrmann, Sabine; Möhlig, Matthias; Pfeiffer, Andreas F H; Spranger, Joachim; Thamer, Claus; Häring, Hans-Ulrich; Fritsche, Andreas; Joost, Hans-Georg

    2007-03-01

    We aimed to develop a precise risk score for the screening of large populations for individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes based on noninvasive measurements of major risk factors in German study populations. A prospective cohort study (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-Potsdam study) of 9,729 men and 15,438 women aged 35-65 years was used to derive a risk score predicting incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients were used to weigh each variable in the calculation of the score. Data from the EPIC-Heidelberg, the Tübingen Family Study for Type 2 Diabetes (TUF), and the Metabolic Syndrome Berlin Potsdam (MeSyBePo) study were used to validate this score. Information on age, waist circumference, height, history of hypertension, physical activity, smoking, and consumption of red meat, whole-grain bread, coffee, and alcohol formed the German Diabetes Risk Score (mean 446 points [range 118-983]). The probability of developing diabetes within 5 years in the EPIC-Potsdam study increased from 0.3% for 300 to 23.2% for 750 score points. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.84 in the EPIC-Potsdam and 0.82 in the EPIC-Heidelberg studies. Correlation coefficients between the German Diabetes Risk Score and insulin sensitivity in nondiabetic individuals were -0.56 in the TUF and -0.45 in the MeSyBePo studies. ROC values for undiagnosed diabetes were 0.83 in the TUF and 0.75 in the MeSyBePo studies. The German Diabetes Risk Score (available at www.dife.de) is an accurate tool to identify individuals at high risk for or with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes.

  18. Risk Factors for Moderate and Severe Persistent Pain in Patients Undergoing Total Knee and Hip Arthroplasty: A Prospective Predictive Study

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Patrícia R.; McIntyre, Teresa; Ferrero, Ramón; Almeida, Armando; Araújo-Soares, Vera

    2013-01-01

    Persistent post-surgical pain (PPSP) is a major clinical problem with significant individual, social and health care costs. The aim of this study was to examine the joint role of demographic, clinical and psychological risk factors in the development of moderate and severe PPSP after Total Knee and Hip Arthroplasty (TKA and THA, respectively). This was a prospective study wherein a consecutive sample of 92 patients were assessed 24 hours before (T1), 48 hours after (T2) and 4–6 months (T3) after surgery. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of moderate and severe levels of PPSP. Four to six months after TKA and THA, 54 patients (58.7%) reported none or mild pain (Numerical Rating Scale: NRS ≤3), whereas 38 (41.3%) reported moderate to severe pain (NRS >3). In the final multivariate hierarchical logistic regression analyses, illness representations concerning the condition leading to surgery (osteoarthritis), such as a chronic timeline perception of the disease, emerged as a significant predictor of PPSP. Additionally, post-surgical anxiety also showed a predictive role in the development of PPSP. Pre-surgical pain was the most significant clinical predictive factor and, as expected, undergoing TKA was associated with greater odds of PPSP development than THA. The findings on PPSP predictors after major joint arthroplasties can guide clinical practice in terms of considering cognitive and emotional factors, together with clinical factors, in planning acute pain management before and after surgery. PMID:24058502

  19. Risk Factors for Elementary School Drinking: Pubertal Status, Personality, and Alcohol Expectancies Concurrently Predict 5th Grade Alcohol Consumption

    PubMed Central

    Gunn, Rachel L.; Smith, Gregory T.

    2010-01-01

    Little is known about the correlates and potential causes of very early drinking. The authors proposed this risk theory: (a) pubertal onset is associated with increased levels of positive urgency (the tendency to act rashly when experiencing intensely positive mood), negative urgency (the tendency to act rashly when distressed), and sensation seeking; (b) those traits predict increased endorsement of high-risk alcohol expectancies; (c) the expectancies predict drinker status among 5th graders; and (d) the apparent influence of positive urgency, negative urgency, and sensation seeking on drinker status is mediated by alcohol expectancies. The authors conducted a concurrent test of whether the relationships among these variables were consistent with the theory in a sample of 1,843 5th grade students. In a well-fitting structural model, their hypotheses were supported. Drinker status among 5th graders is not just a function of context and factors external to children: it is predictable from a combination of pubertal status, personality characteristics, and learned alcohol expectancies. PMID:20822192

  20. Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & S. L. Desmarais, 2009; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & C. Middleton, 2004) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated…

  1. Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & S. L. Desmarais, 2009; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & C. Middleton, 2004) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated…

  2. [Risk factors for stroke].

    PubMed

    Mandić, Milan; Rancić, Natasa

    2011-01-01

    Stroke is the third cause of mortality both in men and in women throughout the world. In Serbia, stroke is the first cause of mortality in women older than 55 years of age and the second cause of death in men of the same age. Both ischemic heart diseases and ischemic stroke correlate with the same predisposing, potentially modifiable risk factors (hypertension, abnormal blood lipids and lipoproteins, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity, obesity, diabetes mellitus). Stroke does not usually occur on its own. Patients with stroke have a high prevalence of associated medical problems. These conditions may predict the stroke ("preexisting conditions"), occur for the first time after stroke ("post-stroke complications"), or present as manifestations of preexisting medical conditions after stroke. Risk factors for stroke are divided into the three groups: risk factors which cannot be influenced on such as: age, gender, positive family history of stroke, race: those which are modifiable such as: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking cigarettes, obesity, physical inactivity and the third group consists of potential risk factors for stroke (consumption of alcohol, hormones, changes in fibrinolysis, changes in blood. Stroke remains a leading cause of long-term disability and premature death of both men and women. Consequently, stroke survivors are often handicapped and doomed to sedentary lifestyle which restrains performance of activities of daily living, increases the risk for falls, and may contribute to a higher risk for recurrent stroke and cardiovascular disease. Prevention of stroke is still a great medical and social problem. Further studies are required to investigate potential risk factors for the occurrence of stroke as well as the measures of primary and secondary prevention.

  3. Use of an artificial neural network to predict risk factors of nosocomial infection in lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jie; Pan, Qin-Shi; Hong, Wan-Dong; Pan, Jingye; Zhang, Wen-Hui; Xu, Gang; Wang, Yu-Min

    2014-01-01

    Statistical methods to analyze and predict the related risk factors of nosocomial infection in lung cancer patients are various, but the results are inconsistent. A total of 609 patients with lung cancer were enrolled to allow factor comparison using Student's t-test or the Mann-Whitney test or the Chi-square test. Variables that were significantly related to the presence of nosocomial infection were selected as candidates for input into the final ANN model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) model and logistic regression (LR) model. The prevalence of nosocomial infection from lung cancer in this entire study population was 20.1% (165/609), nosocomial infections occurring in sputum specimens (85.5%), followed by blood (6.73%), urine (6.0%) and pleural effusions (1.82%). It was shown that long term hospitalization (≥ 22 days, P= 0.000), poor clinical stage (IIIb and IV stage, P=0.002), older age (≥ 61 year old, P=0.023), and use the hormones were linked to nosocomial infection and the ANN model consisted of these four factors .The artificial neural network model with variables consisting of age, clinical stage, time of hospitalization, and use of hormones should be useful for predicting nosocomial infection in lung cancer cases.

  4. Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Shuichiro; Yano, Masataka; Nakayama, Takayuki; Kitahara, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI) following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) during the initial learning period. We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobina levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%), but it cured in 29 patients (93.5%) after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043) and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032) were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis. Copyright© by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

  5. Risk Factors and Predictive Clinical Scores for Asthma Exacerbations in Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Forno, Erick; Fuhlbrigge, Anne; Soto-Quirós, Manuel E.; Avila, Lydiana; Raby, Benjamin A.; Brehm, John; Sylvia, Jody M.; Weiss, Scott T.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Asthma is a major public health problem that affects millions of children worldwide, and exacerbations account for most of its morbidity and costs. Primary-care providers lack efficient tools to identify children at high risk for exacerbations. We aimed to construct a clinical score to help providers to identify such children. Methods: Our main outcome was severe asthma exacerbation, which was defined as any hospitalization, urgent visit, or systemic steroid course for asthma in the previous year, in children. A clinical score, consisting of a checklist questionnaire made up of 17 yes-no questions regarding asthma symptoms, use of medications and health-care services, and history, was built and validated in a cross-sectional study of Costa Rican children with asthma. It was then evaluated using data from the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP), a longitudinal trial cohort of North American children. Results: Compared with children at average risk for an exacerbation in the Costa Rican validation set, the odds of an exacerbation among children in the low-risk (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.4) and high-risk (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.2) score categories were significantly reduced and increased, respectively. In CAMP, the hazard ratios for an exacerbation after 1-year follow-up in the low-risk and high-risk groups were 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5-0.7) and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4), respectively, with similar results at 2 years. Conclusions: The proposed Asthma Exacerbation Clinical Score is simple to use and effective at identifying children at high and low risk for asthma exacerbations. The tool can easily be used in primary-care settings. PMID:20472862

  6. Skin explant model of human graft-versus-host disease: prediction of clinical outcome and correlation with biological risk factors.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiao-Nong; Collin, Matthew; Sviland, Lisbet; Marshall, Scott; Jackson, Graham; Schulz, Ute; Holler, Ernst; Karrer, Sigrid; Greinix, Hildegard; Elahi, Fariborz; Hromadnikova, Ilona; Dickinson, A M

    2006-02-01

    A human skin explant model has been used to predict the clinical outcome and to study the immunopathology of human graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Whether the model gives the same predictive effect for GVHD in different hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) settings has not been assessed. It is also unknown whether the skin explant result reflects the known biological risk factors for clinical GVHD. In this study, the skin explant model was used to detect graft-versus-host reactions (GVHR) in vitro for 225 eligible patient/donor pairs. The predicted skin GVHR grade was correlated with the outcome of clinical GVHD, as well as HLA matching status, sex mismatches, and patient age. In sibling HSCT under either myeloablative or reduced-intensity conditioning, a significant correlation was observed between the predicted skin GVHR and clinical GVHD (P < .001 and P = .033, respectively). In HSCT using unrelated donors, the involvement of T-cell depletion led to a sharp increase in false-positive GVHR results, and no correlation was observed between the predicted skin GVHR and clinical GVHD. The skin GVHR grade correlated significantly with the HLA matching status (HLA-matched sibling pairs, HLA-matched unrelated pairs, and HLA-unmatched unrelated pairs). Furthermore, HLA-matched sibling pairs with a female-to-male sex mismatch had a significantly higher overall skin GVHR grade and a higher ratio of high- versus low-grade skin GVHR than the sibling pairs with all other sex combinations. Patient age was not reflected in the skin explant result. In conclusion, the predictive value of the skin explant model for aGVHD varies depending on the clinical transplant protocols, such as the type of GVHD prophylaxis used. Nevertheless, the skin explant model remains a unique in vitro system that provides an in situ histopathologic readout for studying alloreactivity and human GVHD. The model has also the potential to aid the development of novel prophylaxis and treatment for

  7. Identifying Risk Factors for the Prediction of Hospital Readmission among Older Persons with Cardiovascular Disease.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Middleton, Renee Annette

    Older persons (55 years and older) with cardiovascular disease are at increased risk for hospital readmission when compared to other subgroups of our population. This issue presents an economic problem, a concern for the quality and type of care provided, and an urgent need to implement innovative strategies designed to reduce the rising cost of…

  8. Risk factors predicting exertional heat illness in male Marine Corps recruits.

    PubMed

    Gardner, J W; Kark, J A; Karnei, K; Sanborn, J S; Gastaldo, E; Burr, P; Wenger, C B

    1996-08-01

    A matched population-based case-control study was conducted on exertional heat illness (EHI) in male Marine Corps recruits in basic training at Parris Island, SC. Physical fitness and anthropometric measurements were obtained for 391 of 528 cases of EHI identified in this population during 1988-1992, and 1467 of 1725 controls matched to cases by initial training platoon. The risk for developing EHI increased with increase in body mass index (BMI = weight.height-2) as measured on arrival and with increase in time to complete a 1.5-mile run conducted during the first week. Recruits at highest risk for developing exertional heat illness had a BMI of 22 or more kg.m-2 and a 1.5-mile run-time for 12 of more minutes. These recruits had an eightfold higher risk for developing exertional heat illness during basic training when compared with those with BMI less than 22 kg.m-2 and 1.5-mile run-time under 10 min (P < 10(-6). Only one-fifth (18%) of male recruits met these criteria for high risk, but they accounted for nearly half (47%) of the exertional heat illness cases occurring during the 12-wk basic training course.

  9. Criminal thought process as a dynamic risk factor: Variable- and person-oriented approaches to recidivism prediction.

    PubMed

    Walters, Glenn D; Cohen, Thomas H

    2016-08-01

    The research question addressed in this study was whether an increase in criminal thought process predicted elevated risk for recidivism in a community sample of offenders. Using a 1-year change on the General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) as the independent variable, time until first arrest following a second administration of the GCT as the dependent variable, and age, criminal history, race, and ethnicity as control variables, the effect of an elevated GCT score on subsequent recidivism was tested in 35,147 male and 5,254 female federal probationers and supervised releases. Separate analyses were conducted on male and female participants. The results revealed that a rise in GCT was an incrementally valid predictor of time until first arrest in both men and women after controlling for age, criminal history, and race/ethnicity (variable-oriented analysis) and predicted the presence of a subsequent arrest during a 1-year follow-up in men regardless of initial GCT score and in women with a low initial GCT score (person-oriented analysis). Although the effect sizes were, for the most part, small, they nonetheless demonstrated both clinical and statistical significance, thereby supporting the supposition that criminal thought process, as measured by the PICTS GCT score, is a dynamic risk factor. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. Estimating the impact of grouping misclassification on risk prediction when using the relative potency factors method to assess mixtures risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental health risk assessments of chemical mixtures that rely on component approaches often begin by grouping the chemicals of concern according to toxicological similarity. Approaches that assume dose addition typically are used for groups of similarly-acting chemicals an...

  11. Negative predictive Value of Dobutamine Stress Echocardiography for Perioperative Risk Stratification in Patients with Cardiac Risk Factors and Reduced Exercise Capacity undergoing Non-cardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Go, Gus; Davies, Kathy T; O'Callaghan, Cara; Senior, Wendy; Kostner, Karam; Fagermo, Narelle; Prasad, Sandhir B

    2017-10-02

    Guidelines recommend functional testing for myocardial ischaemia in the perioperative setting in patients with >1 recognised cardiac risk factors and self-reported reduced exercise capacity. We sought to determine the clinical utility of dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) for perioperative risk stratification in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. Data on 79 consecutive patients undergoing DSE for perioperative risk stratification at a single centre was retrospectively reviewed to determine rates of Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) during the index hospitalisation and 30 days post discharge. Echocardiography and outcomes data were obtained via folder audit and echolab database. Out of the 79 DSEs performed for perioperative risk stratification, 11(14%) were positive (DSE+ve) and 68(86%) were negative (DSE-ve). Management in the DSE+ve group included medical optimisation without invasive intervention [n=7(64%)], diagnostic coronary angiography [n=3(27%)], and coronary artery bypass graft [n=1(9%)]. None of the patients underwent percutaneous coronary intervention pre-operatively. Perioperative MACE in the DSE+ve group was 36% compared to 4% in the DSE-ve group (p=0.006). DSE+ve was a powerful predictor of perioperative inpatient MACE (OR 12.4, 95% CI 2.3-67, p=0.003). The positive predictive value of DSE+ve status was 36%, whist the negative predictive value of DSE-ve status for perioperative MACE was 96%. DSE for perioperative risk stratification had a high clinical utility in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. In particular, a normal DSE had a high negative predictive value for perioperative MACE. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  12. Gender-related risk factors improve mortality predictive ability of VACS Index among HIV-infected women

    PubMed Central

    COHEN, Mardge H; HOTTON, Anna L; HERSHOW, Ronald C; LEVINE, Alexandra; BACCHETTI, Peter; GOLUB, Elizabeth T.; ANASTOS, Kathryn; YOUNG, Mary; GUSTAFSON, Deborah; WEBER, Kathleen M

    2015-01-01

    Background Adding gender-related modifiable characteristics or behaviors to the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index might improve the accuracy of predicting mortality among HIV-infected women on treatment. We evaluated the VACS Index in women with HIV, determined whether additional variables would improve mortality prediction, and quantified the potential for improved survival associated with reduction in these additional risk factors. Methods The VACS Index (based on age, CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, hemoglobin, AST, ALT, platelets, creatinine and Hepatitis C status) was validated in HIV-infected women in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) between January 1996 and December 2007. Models were constructed adding race, depression, abuse, smoking, substance use, transactional sex, and comorbidities to determine whether predictability improved. Population attributable fractions were calculated. Results The VACS Index accurately predicted 5-year mortality in 1057 WIHS women with 1 year on HAART with c-index 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.87). In multivariate analysis, the VACS Index score (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for 5-point increment 1.30; 95% CI 1.25–1.35), depressive symptoms (aHR 1.73; 95% CI 1.17–2.56) and history of transactional sex (aHR 1.93; 95% CI 1.33–1.82) were independent statistically significant predictors of mortality. Conclusions Including depression and transactional sex significantly improved the performance of the VACS Index in predicting mortality among HIV-infected women. Providing treatment for depression and addressing economic and psychosocial instability in HIV infected women would improve health and perhaps point to a broader public health approach to reducing HIV mortality. PMID:26284531

  13. Implementation of Predictive Data Mining Techniques for Identifying Risk Factors of Early AVF Failure in Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Rezapour, Mohammad; Khavanin Zadeh, Morteza; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2013-01-01

    Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is an important vascular access for hemodialysis (HD) treatment but has 20–60% rate of early failure. Detecting association between patient's parameters and early AVF failure is important for reducing its prevalence and relevant costs. Also predicting incidence of this complication in new patients is a beneficial controlling procedure. Patient safety and preservation of early AVF failure is the ultimate goal. Our research society is Hasheminejad Kidney Center (HKC) of Tehran, which is one of Iran's largest renal hospitals. We analyzed data of 193 HD patients using supervised techniques of data mining approach. There were 137 male (70.98%) and 56 female (29.02%) patients introduced into this study. The average of age for all the patients was 53.87 ± 17.47 years. Twenty eight patients had smoked and the number of diabetic patients and nondiabetics was 87 and 106, respectively. A significant relationship was found between “diabetes mellitus,” “smoking,” and “hypertension” with early AVF failure in this study. We have found that these mentioned risk factors have important roles in outcome of vascular surgery, versus other parameters such as “age.” Then we predicted this complication in future AVF surgeries and evaluated our designed prediction methods with accuracy rates of 61.66%–75.13%. PMID:23861725

  14. Use of watershed factors to predict consumer surfactant risk, water quality, and habitat quality in the upper Trinity River, Texas.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, S F; Johnson, D R; Venables, B J; Slye, J L; Kennedy, J R; Dyer, S D; Price, B B; Ciarlo, M; Stanton, K; Sanderson, H; Nielsen, A

    2009-06-15

    Surfactants are high production volume chemicals that are used in a wide assortment of "down-the-drain" consumer products. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) generally remove 85 to more than 99% of all surfactants from influents, but residual concentrations are discharged into receiving waters via wastewater treatment plant effluents. The Trinity River that flows through the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, Texas, is an ideal study site for surfactants due to the high ratio of wastewater treatment plant effluent to river flow (>95%) during late summer months, providing an interesting scenario for surfactant loading into the environment. The objective of this project was to determine whether surfactant concentrations, expressed as toxic units, in-stream water quality, and aquatic habitat in the upper Trinity River could be predicted based on easily accessible watershed characteristics. Surface water and pore water samples were collected in late summer 2005 at 11 sites on the Trinity River in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. Effluents of 4 major waste water treatment plants that discharge effluents into the Trinity River were also sampled. General chemistries and individual surfactant concentrations were determined, and total surfactant toxic units were calculated. GIS models of geospatial, anthropogenic factors (e.g., population density) and natural factors (e.g., soil organic matter) were collected and analyzed according to subwatersheds. Multiple regression analyses using the stepwise maximum R(2) improvement method were performed to develop prediction models of surfactant risk, water quality, and aquatic habitat (dependent variables) using the geospatial parameters (independent variables) that characterized the upper Trinity River watershed. We show that GIS modeling has the potential to be a reliable and inexpensive method of predicting water and habitat quality in the upper Trinity River watershed and perhaps other highly urbanized

  15. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    MedlinePlus

    ... Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is still unknown. Scientists ... help find improved therapies and a cure for scleroderma! Your gift today will be matched to have ...

  16. Large-scale candidate gene study to identify genetic risk factors predictive of paliperidone treatment response in patients with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dai; Fu, Dong-Jing; Wu, Xiaodong; Shapiro, Alice; Favis, Reyna; Savitz, Adam; Chung, Hedy; Alphs, Larry; Gopal, Srihari; Haas, Magali; Cohen, Nadine; Li, Qingqin

    2015-04-01

    Clinical response to antipsychotic medications can vary markedly in patients with schizophrenia. Identifying genetic variants associated with treatment response could help optimize patient care and outcome. To this end, we carried out a large-scale candidate gene study to identify genetic risk factors predictive of paliperidone efficacy. A central nervous system custom chip containing single nucleotide polymorphisms from 1204 candidate genes was utilized to genotype a discovery cohort of 684 schizophrenia patients from four clinical studies of paliperidone extended-release and paliperidone palmitate. Variants predictive of paliperidone efficacy were identified and further tested in four independent replication cohorts of schizophrenic patients (N=2856). We identified an SNP in ERBB4 that may contribute toward differential treatment response to paliperidone. The association trended in the same direction as the discovery cohort in two of the four replication cohorts, but ultimately did not survive multiple testing corrections. The association was not replicated in the other two independent cohorts. We also report several SNPs in well-known schizophrenia candidate genes that show suggestive associations with paliperidone efficacy. These preliminary findings suggest that genetic variation in the ERBB4 gene may differentially affect treatment response to paliperidone in individuals with schizophrenia. They implicate the neuregulin 1 (NRG1)-ErbB4 pathway for modulating antipsychotic response. However, these findings were not robustly reproduced in replication cohorts.

  17. When there Seem to be No Predetermining Factors: Early Child and Proximal Family Risk Predicting Externalizing Behavior in Young Children Incurring No Distal Family Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roskam, I.; Meunier, J.-C.; Stievenart, M.; Noel, M.-P.

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of the current study was to examine the impact of two child risk factors, i.e. personality and inhibition, and two proximal family risk factors, i.e. parenting and attachment, and the impact of their cumulative effect on later externalizing behavior among young children incurring no distal family risk. Data were collected in a…

  18. Incorporation of a genetic factor into an epidemiologic model for prediction of individual risk of lung cancer: the Liverpool Lung Project.

    PubMed

    Raji, Olaide Y; Agbaje, Olorunsola F; Duffy, Stephen W; Cassidy, Adrian; Field, John K

    2010-05-01

    The Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) has previously developed a risk model for prediction of 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer based on five epidemiologic risk factors. SEZ6L, a Met430IIe polymorphic variant found on 22q12.2 region, has been previously linked with an increased risk of lung cancer in a case-control population. In this article, we quantify the improvement in risk prediction with addition of SEZ6L to the LLP risk model. Data from 388 LLP subjects genotyped for SEZ6L single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were combined with epidemiologic risk factors. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to predict 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer with and without this SNP. The improvement in the model associated with the SEZ6L SNP was assessed through pairwise comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the net reclassification improvements (NRI). The extended model showed better calibration compared with the baseline model. There was a statistically significant modest increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when SEZ6L was added into the baseline model. The NRI also revealed a statistically significant improvement of around 12% for the extended model; this improvement was better for subjects classified into the two intermediate-risk categories by the baseline model (NRI, 27%). Our results suggest that the addition of SEZ6L improved the performance of the LLP risk model, particularly for subjects whose initial absolute risks were unable to discriminate into "low-risk" or "high-risk" group. This work shows an approach to incorporate genetic biomarkers in risk models for predicting an individual's lung cancer risk.

  19. Factors predicting the development of pressure ulcers in an at-risk population who receive standardized preventive care: secondary analyses of a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Demarre, Liesbet; Verhaeghe, Sofie; Van Hecke, Ann; Clays, Els; Grypdonck, Maria; Beeckman, Dimitri

    2015-02-01

    To identify predictive factors associated with the development of pressure ulcers in patients at risk who receive standardized preventive care. Numerous studies have examined factors that predict risk for pressure ulcer development. Only a few studies identified risk factors associated with pressure ulcer development in hospitalized patients receiving standardized preventive care. Secondary analyses of data collected in a multicentre randomized controlled trial. The sample consisted of 610 consecutive patients at risk for pressure ulcer development (Braden Score <17) receiving standardized preventive care measures. Patient demographic information, data on skin and risk assessment, medical history and diagnosis were collected during 26 months (December 2007-January 2010). Predictive factors were identified using multivariate statistics. Pressure ulcers in category II-IV were significantly associated with non-blanchable erythema, urogenital disorders and higher body temperature. Predictive factors significantly associated with superficial pressure ulcers were admission to an internal medicine ward, incontinence-associated dermatitis, non-blanchable erythema and a lower Braden score. Superficial sacral pressure ulcers were significantly associated with incontinence-associated dermatitis. Despite the standardized preventive measures they received, hospitalized patients with non-blanchable erythema, urogenital disorders and a higher body temperature were at increased risk for developing pressure ulcers. Improved identification of at-risk patients can be achieved by taking into account specific predictive factors. Even if preventive measures are in place, continuous assessment and tailoring of interventions is necessary in all patients at risk. Daily skin observation can be used to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the intervention. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Analyzing road design risk factors for run-off-road crashes in The Netherlands with crash prediction models.

    PubMed

    van Petegem, J W H Jan Hendrik; Wegman, Fred

    2014-06-01

    About 50% of all road traffic fatalities and 30% of all traffic injuries in the Netherlands take place on rural roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h. About 50% of these crashes are run-off-road (ROR) crashes. To reduce the number of crashes on this road type, attention should be put on improving the safety of the infrastructure of this road type. With the development of a crash prediction model for ROR crashes on rural roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h, this study aims at making a start in providing the necessary new tools for a proactive road safety policy to road administrators in the Netherlands. The paper presents a basic framework of the model development, comprising a problem description, the data used, and the method for developing the model. The model is developed with the utilization of generalized linear modeling in SAS, using the Negative Binomial probability distribution. A stepwise approach is used by adding one variable at a time, which forms the basis for striving for a parsimonious model and the evaluation of the model. The likelihood ratio test and the Akaike information criterion are used to assess the model fit, and parameter estimations are compared with literature findings to check for consistency. The results comprise two important outcomes. One is a crash prediction model (CPM) to estimate the relative safety of rural roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h in a network. The other is a small set of estimated effects of traffic volume and road characteristics on ROR crash frequencies. The results may lead to adjustments of the road design guidelines in the Netherlands and to further research on the quantification of risk factors with crash prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessment of the clinical utility of adding common single nucleotide polymorphism genetic scores to classical risk factor algorithms in coronary heart disease risk prediction in UK men.

    PubMed

    Beaney, Katherine E; Cooper, Jackie A; Drenos, Fotios; Humphries, Steve E

    2017-08-28

    Risk prediction algorithms for coronary heart disease (CHD) are recommended for clinical use. However, their predictive ability remains modest and the inclusion of genetic risk may improve their performance. QRISK2 was used to assess CHD risk using conventional risk factors (CRFs). The performance of a 19 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) gene score (GS) for CHD including variants identified by genome-wide association study and candidate gene studies (weighted using the results from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D meta-analysis) was assessed using the second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases). To improve the GS, five SNPs with weak evidence of an association with CHD were removed and replaced with seven robustly associated SNPs - giving a 21-SNP GS. The weighted 19 SNP GS was associated with lipid traits (p<0.05) and CHD after adjustment for CRFs, (OR=1.31 per standard deviation, p=0.03). Addition of the 19 SNP GS to QRISK2 showed improved discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.68 vs. 0.70 p=0.02), a positive net reclassification index (0.07, p=0.04) compared to QRISK2 alone and maintained good calibration (p=0.17). The 21-SNP GS was also associated with CHD after adjustment for CRFs (OR=1.39 per standard deviation, 1.42×10-3), but the combined QRISK2 plus GS score was poorly calibrated (p=0.03) and showed no improvement in discrimination (p=0.55) or reclassification (p=0.10) compared to QRISK2 alone. The 19-SNP GS is robustly associated with CHD and showed potential clinical utility in the UK population.

  2. Unpacking Trauma Exposure Risk Factors and Differential Pathways of Influence: Predicting Postwar Mental Distress in Bosnian Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Layne, Christopher M.; Olsen, Joseph A.; Baker, Aaron; Legerski, John-Paul; Isakson, Brian; Pasalic, Alma; Durakovic-Belko, Elvira; Dapo, Nermin; Campara, Nihada; Arslanagic, Berina; Saltzman, William R.; Pynoos, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    Methods are needed for quantifying the potency and differential effects of risk factors to identify at-risk groups for theory building and intervention. Traditional methods for constructing war exposure measures are poorly suited to "unpack" differential relations between specific types of exposure and specific outcomes. This study of…

  3. Unpacking Trauma Exposure Risk Factors and Differential Pathways of Influence: Predicting Postwar Mental Distress in Bosnian Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Layne, Christopher M.; Olsen, Joseph A.; Baker, Aaron; Legerski, John-Paul; Isakson, Brian; Pasalic, Alma; Durakovic-Belko, Elvira; Dapo, Nermin; Campara, Nihada; Arslanagic, Berina; Saltzman, William R.; Pynoos, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    Methods are needed for quantifying the potency and differential effects of risk factors to identify at-risk groups for theory building and intervention. Traditional methods for constructing war exposure measures are poorly suited to "unpack" differential relations between specific types of exposure and specific outcomes. This study of…

  4. Cross-comparison of diet quality indices for predicting chronic disease risk: findings from the Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg (ORISCAV-LUX) study.

    PubMed

    Alkerwi, Ala'a; Vernier, Cédric; Crichton, Georgina E; Sauvageot, Nicolas; Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R

    2015-01-28

    The scientific community has become increasingly interested in the overall quality of diets rather than in single food-based or single nutrient-based approaches to examine diet-disease relationships. Despite the plethora of indices used to measure diet quality, there still exist questions as to which of these can best predict health outcomes. The present study aimed to compare the ability of five diet quality indices, namely the Recommendation Compliance Index (RCI), Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII), to detect changes in chronic disease risk biomarkers. Nutritional data from 1352 participants, aged 18-69 years, of the Luxembourg nationwide cross-sectional ORISCAV-LUX (Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg) study, 2007-8, were used to calculate adherence to the diet quality index. General linear modelling was performed to assess trends in biomarkers according to adherence to different dietary patterns, after adjustment for age, sex, education level, smoking status, physical activity and energy intake. Among the five selected diet quality indices, the MDS exhibited the best ability to detect changes in numerous risk markers and was significantly associated with lower levels of LDL-cholesterol, apo B, diastolic blood pressure, renal function indicators (creatinine and uric acid) and liver enzymes (serum γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase and glutamate-pyruvate transaminase). Compared with other dietary patterns, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with a favourable cardiometabolic, hepatic and renal risk profile. Diets congruent with current universally accepted guidelines may be insufficient to prevent chronic diseases. Clinicians and public health decision makers should be aware of needs to improve the current dietary guidelines.

  5. Prevalence, prediction and risk factors of enteropathogens in normal and non-normal faeces of young Dutch dairy calves.

    PubMed

    Bartels, Chris J M; Holzhauer, Menno; Jorritsma, Ruurd; Swart, Wim A J M; Lam, Theo J G M

    2010-02-01

    Between January and April 2007, 424 calves under 22 days of age from 108 Dutch dairy herds were sampled to estimate the prevalence of non-normal faeces ('custard-like'-yellowish-coloured with custard consistency or diarrhoea: watery-like faeces) and the shedding of enteropathogens Escherichia coli K99 (E. coli), Coronavirus, Cryptosporidium parvum (C. parvum), Rotavirus and Clostridium perfringens (Cl. perfringens). In addition, information was collected on animal characteristics and herd-management practices. The probability of detecting each one of five enteropathogens given a calf with 'custard-like' faeces or diarrhoea was estimated using Bayes' rule and was based on the predicted probabilities from a multinominal model including each of five enteropathogens as independent variables. In addition, putative risk factors for the presence of each of five enteropathogens were analysed using logistic regression models with random herd effects. Fifty-seven percent of calves had faeces of normal colour (brownish) and consistency (firm), 23.8% (95%CI: 19.8-28.2%) had 'custard-like' faeces and 19.1% (95%CI: 15.5-23.2%) had diarrhoea. E. coli was the least detected enteropathogen (2.6% (95%CI: 1.3-4.6%) of calves, 9% (95%CI: 5-16%) of herds) and Cl. perfringens was most detected (54.0% (95%CI: 49.1-58.8%) of calves, 85% (95%CI: 77-91%) of herds). E. coli and Coronavirus were detected incidentally in only one or two calves per herd, whereas C. parvum and Cl. perfringens were frequently detected in up to four calves per herd. For calves with 'custard-like' faeces, the probability of detecting Rotavirus from a calf in its first week of age was 0.31 whereas for a calf in its second week, there was a 0.66 probability of detecting C. parvum. The probabilities of detecting E. coli, Rotavirus and C. parvum in calves with diarrhoea in their first week of age were 0.10, 0.20 and 0.43, respectively. In calves with diarrhoea between 1 and 2 weeks of age, the probability of detecting

  6. Predictive risk factors in double-valve replacement (AVR and MVR) compared to isolated aortic valve replacement.

    PubMed

    Litmathe, J; Boeken, U; Kurt, M; Feindt, P; Gams, E

    2006-10-01

    The operative risk of combined aortic and mitral surgery is still between 5 and 13 %, whereas isolated AVR normally causes complications in less than 4 % of all patients. Thus, it was the aim of the study to compare both procedures and to evaluate risk stratification in our patient cohort. The inhospital mortality and complication rates were analyzed in both groups over a period of 4 years. There were 396 patients with isolated AVR, and 98 patients with AVR and MVR. For both groups, we investigated 16 possible risk factors for perioperative death or severe complications, such as low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS). The risk factors were analyzed by univariate analysis, and factors with P < 0.01 were entered into a multivariate analysis. There were 11/396 perioperative deaths in patients with AVR (2.8 %) compared to 5/98 (5.1 %) in DVR. The incidence of major complications was 5.3 % in AVR vs. 11.2 % in DVR. As risk factors ( P < 0.05) for death, we found in AVR: former cardiac surgery, aortic stenosis, and pulmonary arterial pressure > 55 mmHg. In patients with DVR, we additionally found: left atrial pressure (LAP) > 20 mmHg and creatinine > 2 mg/dl. Risk factors for severe complications in AVR were: former cardiac surgery and creatinine > 2 mg/dl, in cases of DVR, additionally: tricuspid valve disease (TVD) and LAP > 20 mmHg. Our analysis of risk factors shows that in patients with DVR preoperative parameters, which sometimes are estimated to be unimportant, may cause an adverse outcome. The operation should be carried out before reaching advanced or even end-stage heart failure, and more attention should be paid to an individual perioperative concept and optimized myocardial protection in such patients.

  7. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. A lo...

  8. Risk factors for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonisation or infection in intensive care units and their reliability for predicting MRSA on ICU admission.

    PubMed

    Callejo-Torre, Fernando; Eiros Bouza, Jose Maria; Olaechea Astigarraga, Pedro; Coma Del Corral, Maria Jesus; Palomar Martínez, Mercedes; Alvarez-Lerma, Francisco; López-Pueyo, Maria Jesús

    2016-09-01

    Predicting methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in intensive care units (ICUs) avoids inappropriate antimicrobial empirical treatment and enhances infection control. We describe risk factors for colonisation/infection related to MRSA (MRSA-C/I) in critically ill patients once in the ICU and on ICU admission, and search for an easy-to-use predictive model for MRSA colonisation/infection on ICU admission. This multicentre cohort study included 69,894 patients admitted consecutively (stay>24h) in April-June in the five-year period 2006-2010 from 147 Spanish ICUs participating in the National Surveillance Study of Nosocomial Infections in ICUs (ENVIN-HELICS). Data from all patients included were used to identify risk factors for MRSA-C/I during ICU stays, from admission to discharge, using uni- and multivariable analysis (Poisson regression) to check that the sample to be used to develop the predictive models was representative of standard critical care population. To identify risk factors for MRSA-C/I on ICU admission and to develop prediction models, multivariable logistic regression analysis were then performed only on those admitted in 2010 (n=16950, 2/3 for analysis and 1/3 for subsequent validation). We found that, in the period 2006-2010, 1046 patients were MRSA-C/I. Independent risk factors for MRSA-C/I in ICU were: age>65, trauma or medical patient, high APACHE-II score, admitted from a long-term care facility, urinary catheter, previous antibiotic treatment and skin-soft tissue or post-surgical superficial skin infections. Colonisation with several different MDRs significantly increased the risk of MRSA-C/I. Risk factors on ICU admission were: male gender, trauma critical patient, urgent surgery, admitted from other ICUs, hospital ward or long-term facility, immunosuppression and skin-soft tissue infection. Although the best model to identify carriers of MRSA had a good discrimination (AUC-ROC, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.82), sensitivity was 67% and

  9. Traditional Risk Factors Versus Biomarkers for Prediction of Secondary Events in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease: From the Heart and Soul Study

    PubMed Central

    Beatty, Alexis L; Ku, Ivy A; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Christenson, Robert H; DeFilippi, Christopher R; Ganz, Peter; Ix, Joachim H; Lloyd-Jones, Donald; Omland, Torbjørn; Sabatine, Marc S; Schiller, Nelson B; Shlipak, Michael G; Skali, Hicham; Takeuchi, Madoka; Vittinghoff, Eric; Whooley, Mary A

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with stable coronary heart disease (CHD) have widely varying prognoses and treatment options. Validated models for risk stratification of patients with CHD are needed. We sought to evaluate traditional and novel risk factors as predictors of secondary cardiovascular (CV) events, and to develop a prediction model that could be used to risk stratify patients with stable CHD. Methods and Results We used independent derivation (912 participants in the Heart and Soul Study) and validation (2876 participants in the PEACE trial) cohorts of patients with stable CHD to develop a risk prediction model using Cox proportional hazards models. The outcome was CV events, defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV death. The annual rate of CV events was 3.4% in the derivation cohort and 2.2% in the validation cohort. With the exception of smoking, traditional risk factors (including age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes) did not emerge as the top predictors of secondary CV events. The top 4 predictors of secondary events were the following: N-terminal pro-type brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, urinary albumin:creatinine ratio, and current smoking. The 5-year C-index for this 4-predictor model was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.65 in the validation cohort. As compared with variables in the Framingham secondary events model, the Heart and Soul risk model resulted in net reclassification improvement of 0.47 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.73) in the derivation cohort and 0.18 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.40) in the validation cohort. Conclusions Novel risk factors are superior to traditional risk factors for predicting 5-year risk of secondary events in patients with stable CHD. PMID:26150476

  10. Do Maternal Caregiver Perceptions of Childhood Obesity Risk Factors and Obesity Complications Predict Support for Prevention Initiatives Among African Americans?

    PubMed

    Alexander, Dayna S; Alfonso, Moya L; Cao, Chunhua; Wright, Alesha R

    2017-07-01

    Objectives African American maternal caregiver support for prevention of childhood obesity may be a factor in implementing, monitoring, and sustaining children's positive health behaviors. However, little is known about how perceptions of childhood obesity risk factors and health complications influence caregivers' support of childhood obesity prevention strategies. The objective of this study was to determine if childhood obesity risk factors and health complications were associated with maternal caregivers' support for prevention initiatives. Methods A convenience sample of maternal caregivers (N = 129, ages 22-65 years) completed the childhood obesity perceptions (COP) survey. A linear regression was conducted to determine whether perceptions about childhood obesity risk factors and subsequent health complications influenced caregivers' support for prevention strategies. Results Caregivers' perceptions of childhood obesity risk factors were moderate (M = 3.4; SD = 0.64), as were their perceptions of obesity-related health complications (M = 3.3; SD = 0.75); however, they perceived a high level of support for prevention strategies (M = 4.2; SD = 0.74). In the regression model, only health complications were significantly associated with caregiver support (β = 0.348; p < 0.004). Conclusions Childhood obesity prevention efforts should emphasize health complications by providing education and strategies that promote self-efficacy and outcome expectations among maternal caregivers.

  11. Understanding clusters of risk factors across different environmental and social contexts for the prediction of injuries among Canadian youth.

    PubMed

    Russell, K; Davison, C; King, N; Pike, I; Pickett, W

    2016-05-01

    be sustained in a supervised context. Understanding the clustered and cumulative nature of risk-behaviours, and how these vary by environmental and social context, helps to explain potential mechanisms of injury as well as modifiable factors that may be important avenues for intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting type 2 diabetes using genetic and environmental risk factors in a multi-ethnic Malaysian cohort.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, N; Abdul Murad, N A; Mohd Haniff, E A; Syafruddin, S E; Attia, J; Oldmeadow, C; Kamaruddin, M A; Abd Jalal, N; Ismail, N; Ishak, M; Jamal, R; Scott, R J; Holliday, E G

    2017-08-01

    Malaysia has a high and rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). While environmental (non-genetic) risk factors for the disease are well established, the role of genetic variations and gene-environment interactions remain understudied in this population. This study aimed to estimate the relative contributions of environmental and genetic risk factors to T2D in Malaysia and also to assess evidence for gene-environment interactions that may explain additional risk variation. This was a case-control study including 1604 Malays, 1654 Chinese and 1728 Indians from the Malaysian Cohort Project. The proportion of T2D risk variance explained by known genetic and environmental factors was assessed by fitting multivariable logistic regression models and evaluating McFadden's pseudo R(2) and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Models with and without the genetic risk score (GRS) were compared using the log likelihood ratio Chi-squared test and AUCs. Multiplicative interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors was assessed via logistic regression within and across ancestral groups. Interactions were assessed for the GRS and its 62 constituent variants. The models including environmental risk factors only had pseudo R(2) values of 16.5-28.3% and AUC of 0.75-0.83. Incorporating a genetic score aggregating 62 T2D-associated risk variants significantly increased the model fit (likelihood ratio P-value of 2.50 × 10(-4)-4.83 × 10(-12)) and increased the pseudo R(2) by about 1-2% and AUC by 1-3%. None of the gene-environment interactions reached significance after multiple testing adjustment, either for the GRS or individual variants. For individual variants, 33 out of 310 tested associations showed nominal statistical significance with 0.001 < P < 0.05. This study suggests that known genetic risk variants contribute a significant but small amount to overall T2D risk variation in Malaysian population groups. If gene

  13. A Risk Factor-based Predictive Model of Outcomes in Carotid Endarterectomy The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005–2010

    PubMed Central

    Desai, Atman; Mackenzie, Todd A.; Goodney, Philip; Labropoulos, Nicos

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Accurate knowledge of individualized risks and benefits is crucial to the surgical management of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Although large randomized trials have determined specific cutoffs for the degree of stenosis, precise delineation of patient-level risks remains a topic of debate, especially in real world practice. We attempted to create a risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in CEA. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent CEAs from 2005 to 2010 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project database. Results Of the 35 698 patients, 20 015 were asymptomatic (56.1%) and 15 683 were symptomatic (43.9%). These patients demonstrated a 1.64% risk of stroke, 0.69% risk of myocardial infarction, and 0.75% risk of death within 30 days after CEA. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that increasing age, male sex, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, angina, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, and dialysis were independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of the combined outcome of postoperative stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. A validated model for outcome prediction based on individual patient characteristics was developed. There was a steep effect of age on the risk of myocardial infarction and death. Conclusions This national study confirms that that risks of CEA vary dramatically based on patient-level characteristics. Because of limited discrimination, it cannot be used for individual patient risk assessment. However, it can be used as a baseline for improvement and development of more accurate predictive models based on other databases or prospective studies PMID:23412374

  14. Factors Affecting Retention Behavior: A Model To Predict At-Risk Students. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadler, William E.; Cohen, Frederic L.; Kockesen, Levent

    This paper describes a methodology used in an on-going retention study at New York University (NYU) to identify a series of easily measured factors affecting student departure decisions. Three logistic regression models for predicting student retention were developed, each containing data available at three distinct times during the first…

  15. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, but not sedentary time, predicts changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in 10-y-old children: the Active Smarter Kids Study.

    PubMed

    Skrede, Turid; Stavnsbo, Mette; Aadland, Eivind; Aadland, Katrine N; Anderssen, Sigmund A; Resaland, Geir K; Ekelund, Ulf

    2017-04-05

    Background: Cross-sectional data have suggested an inverse relation between physical activity and cardiometabolic risk factors that is independent of sedentary time. However, little is known about which subcomponent of physical activity may predict cardiometabolic risk factors in youths.Objective: We examined the independent prospective associations between objectively measured sedentary time and subcomponents of physical activity with individual and clustered cardiometabolic risk factors in healthy children aged 10 y.Design: We included 700 children (49.1% males; 50.9% females) in which sedentary time and physical activity were measured with the use of accelerometry. Systolic blood pressure, waist circumference (WC), and fasting blood sample (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, fasting insulin) were measured with the use of standard clinical methods and analyzed individually and as a clustered cardiometabolic risk score standardized by age and sex (z score). Exposure and outcome variables were measured at baseline and at follow-up 7 mo later.Results: Sedentary time was not associated with any of the individual cardiometabolic risk factors or clustered cardiometabolic risk in prospective analyses. Moderate physical activity at baseline predicted higher concentrations of triglycerides (P = 0.021) and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (P = 0.027) at follow-up independent of sex, socioeconomic status, Tanner stage, monitor wear time, or WC. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (P = 0.043) and vigorous physical activity (P = 0.028) predicted clustered cardiometabolic risk at follow-up, but these associations were attenuated after adjusting for WC.Conclusions: Physical activity, but not sedentary time, is prospectively associated with cardiometabolic risk in healthy children. Public health strategies aimed at improving children's cardiometabolic profile should strive for increasing physical activity of at

  16. Predicting Recidivism in Juvenile Offenders on Community-Based Orders: The Impact of Risk Factors and Service Delivery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denning, Rebecca; Homel, Ross

    2008-01-01

    In 1999, the Queensland government trialled the Youth Justice Service which fundamentally changed the way supervision, rehabilitation and reintegration services were provided to young offenders on community based orders. The Youth Justice Service aims to monitor order compliance, address risk factors associated with the offending behaviour and…

  17. Psychosocial Work Characteristics Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Health Functioning in Rural Women: The Wisconsin Rural Women's Health Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chikani, Vatsal; Reding, Douglas; Gunderson, Paul; McCarty, Catherine A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: The aim of the present study is to investigate the association between psychosocial work characteristics and health functioning and cardiovascular disease risk factors among rural women of central Wisconsin and compare psychosocial work characteristics between farm and nonfarm women. Methods: Stratified sampling was used to select a…

  18. Psychosocial Work Characteristics Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Health Functioning in Rural Women: The Wisconsin Rural Women's Health Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chikani, Vatsal; Reding, Douglas; Gunderson, Paul; McCarty, Catherine A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: The aim of the present study is to investigate the association between psychosocial work characteristics and health functioning and cardiovascular disease risk factors among rural women of central Wisconsin and compare psychosocial work characteristics between farm and nonfarm women. Methods: Stratified sampling was used to select a…

  19. Configurations of Common Childhood Psychosocial Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2009-01-01

    Background: Co-occurrence of psychosocial risk factors is commonplace, but little is known about psychiatrically-predictive configurations of psychosocial risk factors. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to 17 putative psychosocial risk factors in a representative population sample of 920 children ages 9 to 17. The resultant class…

  20. Configurations of Common Childhood Psychosocial Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2009-01-01

    Background: Co-occurrence of psychosocial risk factors is commonplace, but little is known about psychiatrically-predictive configurations of psychosocial risk factors. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to 17 putative psychosocial risk factors in a representative population sample of 920 children ages 9 to 17. The resultant class…

  1. Predicting Factors and Risk Stratification for Return Visits to the Emergency Department Within 72 Hours in Pediatric Patients.

    PubMed

    Sung, Sheng-Feng; Liu, Kang Ernest; Chen, Solomon Chih-Cheng; Lo, Chia-Lun; Lin, Kuei-Chih; Hu, Ya-Han

    2015-12-01

    A return visit (RV) to the emergency department (ED) is usually used as a quality indicator for EDs. A thorough comprehension of factors affecting RVs is beneficial to enhancing the quality of emergency care. We performed this study to identify pediatric patients at high risk of RVs using readily available characteristics during an ED visit. We retrospectively collected data of pediatric patients visiting 6 branches of an urban hospital during 2007. Potential variables were analyzed using a multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine factors associated with RVs and a classification and regression tree technique to identify high-risk groups. Of the 35,435 visits from which patients were discharged home, 2291 (6.47%) visits incurred an RV within 72 hours. On multivariable analysis, younger age, weekday visits, diagnoses belonging to the category of symptoms, signs, and ill-defined conditions, and being seen by a female physician were associated with a higher probability of RVs. Children younger than 6.5 years who visited on weekdays or between midnight and 8:00 AM on weekends or holidays had the highest probability of returning to the ED within 72 hours. Our study reexamined several important factors that could affect RVs of pediatric patients to the ED and identified high-risk groups of RVs. Further intervention studies or qualitative research could be targeted on these at-risk groups.

  2. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  4. Maternal risk factors predicting child physical characteristics and dysmorphology in fetal alcohol syndrome and partial fetal alcohol syndrome.

    PubMed

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene

    2011-12-01

    Previous research in South Africa revealed very high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), of 46-89 per 1000 among young children. Maternal and child data from studies in this community summarize the multiple predictors of FAS and partial fetal alcohol syndrome (PFAS). Sequential regression was employed to examine influences on child physical characteristics and dysmorphology from four categories of maternal traits: physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to predict influences on child physical characteristics. Individual sequential regressions revealed that maternal drinking measures were the most powerful predictors of a child's physical anomalies (R² = .30, p < .001), followed by maternal demographics (R² = .24, p < .001), maternal physical characteristics (R²=.15, p < .001), and childbearing variables (R² = .06, p < .001). The SEM utilized both individual variables and the four composite categories of maternal traits to predict a set of child physical characteristics, including a total dysmorphology score. As predicted, drinking behavior is a relatively strong predictor of child physical characteristics (β = 0.61, p < .001), even when all other maternal risk variables are included; higher levels of drinking predict child physical anomalies. Overall, the SEM model explains 62% of the variance in child physical anomalies. As expected, drinking variables explain the most variance. But this highly controlled estimation of multiple effects also reveals a significant contribution played by maternal demographics and, to a lesser degree, maternal physical and childbearing variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

    2014-11-01

    Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Role of Cognitive Factors in Predicting Balance and Fall Risk in a Neuro-Rehabilitation Setting

    PubMed Central

    Saverino, A.; Waller, D.; Rantell, K.; Parry, R.; Moriarty, A.; Playford, E. D.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction There is a consistent body of evidence supporting the role of cognitive functions, particularly executive function, in the elderly and in neurological conditions which become more frequent with ageing. The aim of our study was to assess the role of different domains of cognitive functions to predict balance and fall risk in a sample of adults with various neurological conditions in a rehabilitation setting. Methods This was a prospective, cohort study conducted in a single centre in the UK. 114 participants consecutively admitted to a Neuro-Rehabilitation Unit were prospectively assessed for fall accidents. Baseline assessment included a measure of balance (Berg Balance Scale) and a battery of standard cognitive tests measuring executive function, speed of information processing, verbal and visual memory, visual perception and intellectual function. The outcomes of interest were the risk of becoming a faller, balance and fall rate. Results Two tests of executive function were significantly associated with fall risk, the Stroop Colour Word Test (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00–1.03) and the number of errors on part B of the Trail Making Test (IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03–1.49). Composite scores of executive function, speed of information processing and visual memory domains resulted in 2 to 3 times increased likelihood of having better balance (OR 2.74 95% CI 1.08 to 6.94, OR 2.72 95% CI 1.16 to 6.36 and OR 2.44 95% CI 1.11 to 5.35 respectively). Conclusions Our results show that specific subcomponents of executive functions are able to predict fall risk, while a more global cognitive dysfunction is associated with poorer balance. PMID:27115880

  7. The Role of Cognitive Factors in Predicting Balance and Fall Risk in a Neuro-Rehabilitation Setting.

    PubMed

    Saverino, A; Waller, D; Rantell, K; Parry, R; Moriarty, A; Playford, E D

    2016-01-01

    There is a consistent body of evidence supporting the role of cognitive functions, particularly executive function, in the elderly and in neurological conditions which become more frequent with ageing. The aim of our study was to assess the role of different domains of cognitive functions to predict balance and fall risk in a sample of adults with various neurological conditions in a rehabilitation setting. This was a prospective, cohort study conducted in a single centre in the UK. 114 participants consecutively admitted to a Neuro-Rehabilitation Unit were prospectively assessed for fall accidents. Baseline assessment included a measure of balance (Berg Balance Scale) and a battery of standard cognitive tests measuring executive function, speed of information processing, verbal and visual memory, visual perception and intellectual function. The outcomes of interest were the risk of becoming a faller, balance and fall rate. Two tests of executive function were significantly associated with fall risk, the Stroop Colour Word Test (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.03) and the number of errors on part B of the Trail Making Test (IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.49). Composite scores of executive function, speed of information processing and visual memory domains resulted in 2 to 3 times increased likelihood of having better balance (OR 2.74 95% CI 1.08 to 6.94, OR 2.72 95% CI 1.16 to 6.36 and OR 2.44 95% CI 1.11 to 5.35 respectively). Our results show that specific subcomponents of executive functions are able to predict fall risk, while a more global cognitive dysfunction is associated with poorer balance.

  8. Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

    PubMed

    McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

    2014-04-15

    The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Tissue factor pathway inhibitor for prediction of placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes in high-risk women: AngioPred study

    PubMed Central

    Di Bartolomeo, Aurélie; Chauleur, Céline; Gris, Jean-Christophe; Chapelle, Céline; Noblot, Edouard; Laporte, Silvy

    2017-01-01

    Objective The study aimed to evaluate if the rate of tissue factor pathway inhibitor during pregnancy and following delivery could be a predictive factor for placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes in high-risk women. Methods This was a prospective multicentre cohort study of 200 patients at a high risk of occurrence or recurrence of placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes conducted between June 2008 and October 2010. Measurements of tissue factor pathway inhibitor resistance (normalized ratio) and tissue factor pathway inhibitor activity were performed for the last 72 patients at 20, 24, 28, 32, and 36 weeks of gestation and during the postpartum period. Results Overall, 15 patients presented a placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcome. There was no difference in normalized tissue factor pathway inhibitor ratios between patients with and without placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes during pregnancy and in the post-partum period. Patients with placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes had tissue factor pathway inhibitor activity rates that were significantly higher than those in patients without at as early as 24 weeks of gestation. The same results were observed following delivery. Conclusion Among high-risk women, the tissue factor pathway inhibitor activity of patients with gestational vascular complications is higher than that in other patients. Hence, these markers could augment a screening strategy that includes an analysis of angiogenic factors as well as clinical and ultrasound imaging with Doppler measurement of the uterine arteries. PMID:28328938

  10. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    PubMed Central

    Knowles, K. M.; Paiva, L. L.; Sanchez, S. E.; Revilla, L.; Lopez, T.; Yasuda, M. B.; Yanez, N. D.; Gelaye, B.; Williams, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS. PMID:21331161

  11. Risk Stratification For Axillary Lymph Node Metastases in Breast Cancer Patients: What Clinicopathological and Radiological Factors of Primary Breast Cancer Can Predict Preoperatively Axillary Lymph Node Metastases?

    PubMed

    Yun, Seong Jong; Sohn, Yu-Mee; Seo, Mirinae

    2017-03-01

    This study was to investigate clinicopathological features including immunohistochemical subtype and radiological factors of primary breast cancer to predict axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) and preoperative risk stratification.From June 2004 to May 2014, 369 breast cancer patients (mean age, 54.7 years; range, 29-82 years) who underwent surgical axillary node sampling were included. Two radiologists retrospectively reviewed clinicopathological features, initial mammography, and initial breast ultrasonography (US). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate associations between ALNM and variables. Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval and risk of ALNM were calculated.Among 369 patients, 117 (31.7%) had ALNM and 252 (68.3%) had no ALNM revealed surgically. On multivariate analysis, four factors showed positive association with ALNM: the presence of symptoms (P < 0.001), triple-negative breast cancer subtype (P = 0.001), mass size on US (>10 mm, P < 0.001), and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category on US (≥4c, P < 0.001). The significant risk of ALNM was particularly seen in patients with two or more factors (2, P = 0.013; 3, P < 0.001; 4, P < 0.001).The estimated risks of ALNM increased in patients with two, three, and four factors with odds ratios of 5.5, 14.3, and 60.0, respectively.The presence of symptoms, triple-negative breast cancer subtype, larger size mass on US (>10 mm), and higher Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category on US (≥4c) were positively associated with ALNM. Radiologically, US findings are significant factors that can affect the decision making process regarding ALNM. Based on risk stratification, the possibility of ALNM can be better predicted if 2 or more associated factors existed preoperatively.

  12. Prediction Effects of Personal, Psychosocial, and Occupational Risk Factors on Low Back Pain Severity Using Artificial Neural Networks Approach in Industrial Workers.

    PubMed

    Darvishi, Ebrahim; Khotanlou, Hassan; Khoubi, Jamshid; Giahi, Omid; Mahdavi, Neda

    2017-07-21

    This study aimed to provide an empirical model of predicting low back pain (LBP) by considering the occupational, personal, and psychological risk factor interactions in workers population employed in industrial units using an artificial neural networks approach. A total of 92 workers with LBP as the case group and 68 healthy workers as a control group were selected in various industrial units with similar occupational conditions. The demographic information and personal, occupational, and psychosocial factors of the participants were collected via interview, related questionnaires, consultation with occupational medicine, and also the Rapid Entire Body Assessment worksheet and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index software. Then, 16 risk factors for LBP were used as input variables to develop the prediction model. Networks with various multilayered structures were developed using MATLAB. The developed neural networks with 1 hidden layer and 26 neurons had the least error of classification in both training and testing phases. The mean of classification accuracy of the developed neural networks for the testing and training phase data were about 88% and 96%, respectively. In addition, the mean of classification accuracy of both training and testing data was 92%, indicating much better results compared with other methods. It appears that the prediction model using the neural network approach is more accurate compared with other applied methods. Because occupational LBP is usually untreatable, the results of prediction may be suitable for developing preventive strategies and corrective interventions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Optimal cut-off of obesity indices to predict cardiovascular disease risk factors and metabolic syndrome among adults in Northeast China.

    PubMed

    Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuchun; Tao, Yuhui; Yang, Sen; Yu, Yaqin; Li, Bo; Jin, Lina

    2016-10-13

    CVD risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes) and MetS are closely related to obesity. The selection of an optimal cut-off for various obesity indices is particularly important to predict CVD risk factors and MetS. Sixteen thousand seven hundred sixty-six participants aged 18-79 were recruited in Jilin Province in 2012. Five obesity indices, including BMI, WC, WHR, WHtR and BAI were investigated. ROC analyses were used to evaluate the predictive ability and determine the optimal cut-off values of the obesity indices for CVD risk factors and MetS. BMI had the highest adjusted ORs, and the adjusted ORs for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and MetS were 1.19 (95 % CI, 1.17 to 1.20), 1.20 (95 % CI, 1.19 to 1.22), 1.12 (95 % CI, 1.10 to 1.13), and 1.40 (95 % CI, 1.38 to 1.41), respectively. However, BMI did not always have the largest adjusted AUROC. In general, the young age group (18 ~ 44) had higher ORs and AUROCs for CVD risk factors and MetS than those of the other age groups. In addition, the optimal cut-off values for WC and WHR in males were relatively higher than those in females, whereas the BAI in males was comparatively lower than that in females. The appropriate obesity index, with the corresponding optimal cut-off values, should be selected in different research studies and populations. Generally, the obesity indices and their optimal cut-off values are: BMI (24 kg/m(2)), WC (male: 85 cm; female: 80 cm), WHR (male: 0.88; female: 0.85), WHtR (0.50), and BAI (male: 25 cm; female: 30 cm). Moreover, WC is superior to other obesity indices in predicting CVD risk factors and MetS in males, whereas, WHtR is superior to other obesity indices in predicting CVD risk factors and MetS in females.

  14. Risk Factors for Tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    Narasimhan, Padmanesan; Wood, James; MacIntyre, Chandini Raina; Mathai, Dilip

    2013-01-01

    The risk of progression from exposure to the tuberculosis bacilli to the development of active disease is a two-stage process governed by both exogenous and endogenous risk factors. Exogenous factors play a key role in accentuating the progression from exposure to infection among which the bacillary load in the sputum and the proximity of an individual to an infectious TB case are key factors. Similarly endogenous factors lead in progression from infection to active TB disease. Along with well-established risk factors (such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), malnutrition, and young age), emerging variables such as diabetes, indoor air pollution, alcohol, use of immunosuppressive drugs, and tobacco smoke play a significant role at both the individual and population level. Socioeconomic and behavioral factors are also shown to increase the susceptibility to infection. Specific groups such as health care workers and indigenous population are also at an increased risk of TB infection and disease. This paper summarizes these factors along with health system issues such as the effects of delay in diagnosis of TB in the transmission of the bacilli. PMID:23476764

  15. [Risk factors for arterial disease].

    PubMed

    Madoery, Roberto; Rubin, Graciela; Luquez, Hugo; Luquez, Cecilia; Cravero, Cecilia

    2004-01-01

    The risk factors of arterial disease (FREA) predict a future damage over the vascular system of the human body. Its detection are considered a key for the diagnostic as well as for the preventive and even curative strategies. For a long time, scientist considered those factors originated as a consecuence of large studies during the middle of the last century, with current validity up to our days. A simple classification spoke of them as traditionals. Further investigations described the so called new or emergents.factors that where joint together accordingly to their actions: coagulation factors, psicosocial, inflamatories and infectious. A recent classification, taking into account the type of impact, divided them into; causatives, predisposals and conditionals. Also, it was described a mechanism, the oxidative power, with consecuences over the endothelium, in the last part of the process. Before, another mechanism was described: the insulin resistance and the hiperinsulinism, bases for the Metabolic Syndrome, that includes a number of traditional risk factors.

  16. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    PubMed

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children.

  17. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  18. Risk factors and model for predicting toxicity-related treatment discontinuation in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with vascular endothelial growth factor-targeted therapy: Results from the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium.

    PubMed

    Kaymakcalan, Marina D; Xie, Wanling; Albiges, Laurence; North, Scott A; Kollmannsberger, Christian K; Smoragiewicz, Martin; Kroeger, Nils; Wells, J Connor; Rha, Sun-Young; Lee, Jae Lyun; McKay, Rana R; Fay, André P; De Velasco, Guillermo; Heng, Daniel Y C; Choueiri, Toni K

    2016-02-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-targeted therapies are standard treatment for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC); however, toxicities can lead to drug discontinuation, which can affect patient outcomes. This study was aimed at identifying risk factors for toxicity and constructing the first model to predict toxicity-related treatment discontinuation (TrTD) in mRCC patients treated with VEGF-targeted therapies. The baseline characteristics, treatment outcomes, and toxicity data were collected for 936 mRCC patients receiving first-line VEGF-targeted therapy from the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium. A competing risk regression model was used to identify risk factors for TrTD, and it accounted for other causes as competing risks. Overall, 198 (23.8%) experienced TrTD. Sunitinib was the most common VEGF-targeted therapy (77%), and it was followed by sorafenib (18.4%). The median time on therapy was 7.1 months for all patients and 4.4 months for patients with TrTD. The most common toxicities leading to TrTD included fatigue, diarrhea, and mucositis. In a multivariate analysis, significant predictors for TrTD were a baseline age ≥60 years, a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , a single metastatic site, and a sodium level <135 mmol/L. A risk group model was developed that used the number of patient risk factors to predict the risk of TrTD. In the largest series to date, age, GFR, number of metastatic sites, and baseline sodium level were found to be independent risk factors for TrTD in mRCC patients receiving VEGF-targeted therapy. Based on the number of risk factors present, a model for predicting TrTD was built to be used as a tool for toxicity monitoring in clinical practice. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  19. Post-traumatic Stress Symptoms and Post-traumatic Growth in 223 Childhood Cancer Survivors: Predictive Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Tremolada, Marta; Bonichini, Sabrina; Basso, Giuseppe; Pillon, Marta

    2016-01-01

    With modern therapies and supportive care, survival rates of childhood cancer have increased considerably. However, there are long-term psychological sequelae of these treatments that may not manifest until pediatric survivors are into adulthood. The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in young adult survivors of childhood cancer ranges from 6.2 to 22%; associated risk factors are young age at the assessment, female gender, low education level, and some disease-related factors. The aim of this study was to investigate, in adolescent and young adult (AYA) survivors of childhood cancer, the incidence and severity of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs), and to identify the risk factors and the associated post-traumatic growth (PTG) index. Participants were 223 AYA cancer survivors recruited during follow-up visits in the Oncohematology Clinic of the Department of Child and Woman's Health, University of Padua. Data were collected from self-report questionnaires on PTSS incidence, PTG mean score, perceived social support, and medical and socio-demographic factors. Ex-patients' mean age at the assessment was 19.33 years (SD = 3.01, 15-25), 123 males and 100 females, with a mean of years off-therapy of 9.64 (SD = 4.17). Most (52.5%) had survived an hematological disorder and 47.5% a solid tumor when they were aged, on average, 8.02 years (SD = 4.40). The main results indicated a moderate presence of clinical (≥9 symptoms: 9.4%) and sub-clinical PTSS (6-8 symptoms: 11.2%), with the avoidance criterion most often encountered. Re-experience symptoms and PTG mean score were significantly associated (r = 0.24; p = 0.0001). A hierarchical regression model (R (2) = 0.08; F = 1.46; p = 0.05) identified female gender (β = 0.16; p = 0.05) and less perceived social support (β = -0.43; p = 0.05) as risk factors to developing PTSS. Another hierarchical regression model assessed the possible predictors of the PTG total score (R (2) = 0.36; F = 9.1; p = 0.0001), with

  20. Post-traumatic Stress Symptoms and Post-traumatic Growth in 223 Childhood Cancer Survivors: Predictive Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Tremolada, Marta; Bonichini, Sabrina; Basso, Giuseppe; Pillon, Marta

    2016-01-01

    With modern therapies and supportive care, survival rates of childhood cancer have increased considerably. However, there are long-term psychological sequelae of these treatments that may not manifest until pediatric survivors are into adulthood. The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in young adult survivors of childhood cancer ranges from 6.2 to 22%; associated risk factors are young age at the assessment, female gender, low education level, and some disease-related factors. The aim of this study was to investigate, in adolescent and young adult (AYA) survivors of childhood cancer, the incidence and severity of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs), and to identify the risk factors and the associated post-traumatic growth (PTG) index. Participants were 223 AYA cancer survivors recruited during follow-up visits in the Oncohematology Clinic of the Department of Child and Woman’s Health, University of Padua. Data were collected from self-report questionnaires on PTSS incidence, PTG mean score, perceived social support, and medical and socio-demographic factors. Ex-patients’ mean age at the assessment was 19.33 years (SD = 3.01, 15–25), 123 males and 100 females, with a mean of years off-therapy of 9.64 (SD = 4.17). Most (52.5%) had survived an hematological disorder and 47.5% a solid tumor when they were aged, on average, 8.02 years (SD = 4.40). The main results indicated a moderate presence of clinical (≥9 symptoms: 9.4%) and sub-clinical PTSS (6–8 symptoms: 11.2%), with the avoidance criterion most often encountered. Re-experience symptoms and PTG mean score were significantly associated (r = 0.24; p = 0.0001). A hierarchical regression model (R2 = 0.08; F = 1.46; p = 0.05) identified female gender (β = 0.16; p = 0.05) and less perceived social support (β = -0.43; p = 0.05) as risk factors to developing PTSS. Another hierarchical regression model assessed the possible predictors of the PTG total score (R2 = 0.36; F = 9.1; p = 0.0001), with

  1. Prediction of Small Bowel Obstruction Caused by Bezoars Using Risk Factor Categories on Multidetector Computed Tomographic Findings

    PubMed Central

    Kuang, Lian-qin; Cheng, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. The aim of this study was to detect factors associated with small bowel obstruction (SBO) caused by bezoars on multidetector computed tomographic findings. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 61 patients who had bezoars in the small bowels on MDCT. The patients were divided into SBO patients group and non-SBO patients group. The mean values of the diameter, volume, and CT attenuation as well as location and characteristics of the bezoars were compared between the two groups. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine factors associated with SBO. Results. There were 32 patients (52.5%) in the SBO group and 29 patients (47.5%) in the non-SBO group. The bezoars in the SBO group had greater values of each mean diameter and mean volume than those in the non-SBO group (3.2 ± 0.5 cm versus 1.6 ± 0.7 cm, P < 0.0001, 14.9 ± 6.4 cm3 versus 2.5 ± 2.7 cm3, P < 0.0001, resp.) and had a lower CT attenuation than the non-SBO group (55.5 ± 23.4 versus 173.0 ± 68.0, P < 0.0001). The SBO group had higher prevalence of phytobezoar appearance (75.0% versus 10.3%, P < 0.0001). Major diameters of bezoar and phytobezoar were significant independent risk factors associated with SBO (odds ratio = 36.09, 8.26, resp., and P = 0.0004, 0.044, resp.). Conclusions. Major diameter of bezoar or phytobezoar is a potential risk factor associated with SBO. PMID:27403434

  2. Depressive symptoms and other risk factors predicting suicide in middle-aged men: a prospective cohort study among Korean Vietnam War veterans.

    PubMed

    Yi, Sang-Wook; Hong, Jae-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Background. Few studies have prospectively examined whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are associated with a higher risk of suicide death in individuals other than high-risk populations such as psychiatric patients and individuals with self-harm histories. The purpose of the study is to prospectively examine whether depressive symptoms assessed by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are associated with greater risk of suicide death and whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are independent predictors of suicide in general-risk populations. Another aim is to evaluate the sensitivity of the BDI for predicting suicide death. Methods. 10,238 Korean Vietnam War veterans (mean age: 56.3 years) who participated in two surveys in 2001 were followed up for suicide mortality over 7.5 years. Results. 41 men died by suicide. Severely depressed participants had a higher adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 3.4; 95% CI [1.5-7.7]) of suicide than non-to-moderately depressed ones. Higher suicide risk was associated with more severe depressive symptoms (p for trend = 0.009). After adjustment for depressive symptoms and other factors, very poor health, low education, and past drinking were associated with higher suicide risk, while good health, body mass index, and marital status were not associated with suicide. The sensitivity at the cut-off score of 31 for detecting suicide was higher during the earlier 3.5 years of the follow-up (75%; 95% CI [50-90]) than during the latter 4 years (60%; 95% CI [41-76]). Conclusions. Depressive symptoms are a strong independent predictor and very poor health, low education, and drinking status may be independent predictors of future suicide. The BDI may have acceptable diagnostic properties as a risk assessment tool for identifying people with depression and suicidal potential among middle-aged men.

  3. Risk factors and a clinical prediction model for low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy: two population-based prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Korevaar, Tim I M; Nieboer, Daan; Bisschop, Peter H L T; Goddijn, Mariette; Medici, Marco; Chaker, Layal; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, Theo J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G; Peeters, Robin P

    2016-12-01

    Low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy is associated with various adverse outcomes including impaired neurocognitive development of the offspring, premature delivery and abnormal birthweight. To aid doctors in the risk assessment of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy, we set out to investigate clinical risk factors and derive a prediction model based on easily obtainable clinical variables. In total, 9767 women during early pregnancy (≤18 week) were selected from two population-based prospective cohorts: the Generation R Study (N = 5985) and the ABCD study (N = 3782). We aimed to investigate the association of easily obtainable clinical subject characteristics such as maternal age, BMI, smoking status, ethnicity, parity and gestational age at blood sampling with the risk of low free thyroxine (FT4) and elevated thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), determined according to the 2·5th-97·5th reference range in TPOAb negative women. BMI, nonsmoking and ethnicity were risk factors for elevated TSH levels; however, the discriminative ability was poor (range c-statistic of 0·57-0·60). Sensitivity analysis showed that addition of TPOAbs to the model yielded a c-statistic of 0·73-0·75. Maternal age, BMI, smoking, parity and gestational age at blood sampling were risk factors for low FT4, which taken together provided adequate discrimination (range c-statistic of 0·72-0·76). Elevated TSH levels depend predominantly on TPOAb levels, and prediction of elevated TSH levels is not possible with clinical characteristics only. In contrast, the validated clinical prediction model for FT4 had high discriminative value to assess the likelihood of low FT4 levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Constructing the Suicide Risk Index (SRI): does it work in predicting suicidal behavior in young adults mediated by proximal factors?

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Maebh; Dooley, Barbara; Fitzgerald, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Suicide is a key concern among young adults. The aim of the study was to (1) construct a suicide risk index (SRI) based on demographic, situational, and behavioral factors known to be linked to suicidal behavior and (2) investigate whether the association between the SRI and suicidal behavior was mediated by proximal processes (personal factors, coping strategies, and emotional states). Participants consisted of 7,558 individuals aged 17-25 years (M = 20.35, SD = 1.91). Nearly 22% (n = 1,542) reported self-harm and 7% (n = 499) had attempted suicide. Mediation analysis revealed both a direct effect (ß = .299, 95% CI = [.281, .317], p < .001), and a mediated effect (ß = .204, 95% CI = [.186, .222], p < .001), between the risk index and suicidal behavior. The strongest mediators were levels of self-esteem, depression, and avoidant coping. Interventions to increase self-esteem, reduce depression, and encourage adaptive coping strategies may prevent suicidal behavior in young people.

  5. Magnetic Resonance Volumetry: Prediction of Subjective Memory Complaints and Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Associations with Genetic and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Rogne, Sigbjørn; Vangberg, Torgil; Eldevik, Petter; Wikran, Gry; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Schirmer, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims Subjective memory complaints (SMC) are strong predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subsequent Alzheimer's disease. Our aims were to see if fully automated cerebral MR volume measurements could distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls, and if probable parental late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype, total plasma homocysteine, and cardiovascular risk factors were associated with MR volumetric findings. Methods 198 stroke-free subjects comprised the control (n = 58), the SMC (n = 25) and the MCI (n = 115) groups. Analysis of covariance and receiver operating characteristic curve was used to see if MR volumetry distinguished subjects with SMC and MCI from controls. Results Subjects with SMC and MCI had significantly larger lateral ventricles and smaller hippocampal volumes than controls. The area under the curve in subjects with SMC and MCI compared to that of controls was less than 0.68 for all volumes of intracranial structures. There was an interaction between sex and probable parental LOAD for hippocampal volume, with a significant association between probable parental LOAD and hippocampal volume in women. Conclusions Fully automated MR volumetry can distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls in a general population, but insufficiently to assume a clear clinical role. Research on sporadic LOAD might benefit from a sex-specific search for genetic risk factors. PMID:28101099

  6. Prenatal methamphetamine exposure, home environment, and primary caregiver risk factors predict child behavioral problems at 5 years.

    PubMed

    Twomey, Jean; LaGasse, Linda; Derauf, Chris; Newman, Elana; Shah, Rizwan; Smith, Lynne; Arria, Amelia; Huestis, Marilyn; DellaGrotta, Sheri; Roberts, Mary; Dansereau, Lynne; Neal, Charles; Lester, Barry

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the prospective association between prenatal methamphetamine (MA) exposure and child behavioral problems at 5 years while also examining the home environment at 30 months and several primary caregiver (PC) risk factors. Participants were 97 MA-exposed and 117 comparison children and their PCs enrolled in the Infant Development, Environment and Lifestyle Study. Hypotheses were that child behaviors would be adversely impacted by (a) prenatal MA exposure, (b) home environments that provided less developmental stimulation and emotional responsiveness to the child, and (c) the presence of PC psychological symptoms and other risk factors. Prenatal MA exposure was associated with child externalizing behavioral problems at 5 years. Home environments that were more conducive to meeting children's developmental and emotional needs were associated with fewer internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems. Independent of prenatal MA exposure, PC parenting stress and psychological symptoms were associated with increased child behavioral problems. Findings suggest prenatal MA exposure may contribute to externalizing behavioral problems in early childhood and the importance of considering possible vulnerabilities related to prenatal MA exposure in the context of the child's caregiving environment. © 2013 American Orthopsychiatric Association.

  7. Overall rate, location, and predictive factors for positive surgical margins after robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Sung Gu; Schatloff, Oscar; Haidar, Abdul Muhsin; Samavedi, Srinivas; Palmer, Kenneth J; Cheon, Jun; Patel, Vipul R

    2016-01-01

    We report the overall rate, locations and predictive factors of positive surgical margins (PSMs) in 271 patients with high-risk prostate cancer. Between April 2008 and October 2011, we prospectively collected data from patients classified as D’Amico high-risk who underwent robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy. Overall rate and location of PSMs were reported. Stepwise logistic regression models were fitted to assess predictive factors of PSM. The overall rate of PSMs was 25.1% (68 of 271 patients). Of these PSM, 38.2% (26 of 68) were posterolateral (PL), 26.5% (18 of 68) multifocal, 16.2% (11 of 68) in the apex, 14.7% (10 of 68) in the bladder neck, and 4.4% (3/68) in other locations. The PSM rate of patients with pathological stage pT2 was 8.6% (12 of 140), 26.6% (17 of 64) of pT3a, 53.3% (32/60) of pT3b, and 100% (7 of 7) of pT4. In a logistic regression model including pre-, intra-, and post-operative parameters, body mass index (odds ratio [OR]: 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–1.19, P= 0.029), pathological stage (pT3b or higher vs pT2; OR: 5.14; 95% CI: 1.92–13.78; P = 0.001) and percentage of the tumor (OR: 46.71; 95% CI: 6.37–342.57; P< 0.001) were independent predictive factors for PSMs. The most common location of PSMs in patients at high-risk was the PL aspect, which reflects the reported tumor aggressiveness. The only significant predictive factors of PSMs were pathological outcomes, such as percentage of the tumor in the specimen and pathological stage. PMID:25966623

  8. The incidence of pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis and their predictive risk factors after lower extremity arthroplasty: a retrospective analysis based on diagnosis using multidetector CT.

    PubMed

    Fujita, Yoshihisa; Nakatsuka, Hideki; Namba, Yoshifumi; Mitani, Shigeru; Yoshitake, Nami; Sugimoto, Etsuko; Hazama, Keita

    2015-04-01

    The true incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) events, and the predictive risk factors are not well-defined in patients who undergo major lower extremity arthroplasty such as total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total or partial knee arthroplasty (TPKA). Using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT), pulmonary angiography (CTA), and MDCT venography (CTV), we investigated the prevalence of VTE and its predictive risk factors in patients for whom the guideline recommends prophylaxis. The electronic records of patients who underwent elective THA or TPKA at our institution from April 2010 through July 2013 were surveyed. We examined a total of 1,163 patient records for 986 patients who had undergone MDCT seven days after THA or TPKA. No PE-related deaths occurred in this study, though arterial embolization was needed for major bleeding in two cases. CTA-CTV revealed VTE in 51 (4.4 %) patients, PE in 20 (1.7 %), and DVT in 43 (3.3 %). Five of 51 patients had symptoms suggestive of DVT. In the logistic regression model, the type of surgery (TPKA > THA), patient age, and body mass index (BMI) were identified as predictive risk factors for VTE. This observational study showed that the overall incidence of VTE after THA and TPKA is 4.4 % in patients receiving recommended antithrombotic prophylaxis. TPKA is associated with a higher incidence of VTE than of THA, and greater BMI and older patient age are also independent risk factors.

  9. Predictive Risk Factors for Fear of Hypoglycemia and Anxiety-Related Emotional Disorders among Adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Al Hayek, Ayman A; Robert, Asirvatham A; Braham, Rim B; Issa, Besher A; Al Sabaan, Fahad S

    2015-01-01

    To explore the fear of hypoglycemia (FOH) and anxiety-related emotional disorders and their risk factors among adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). A cross-sectional study was conducted among 187 adolescents (aged 13-18 years; 92 males, 95 females) with T1DM at the Diabetes Treatment Center, Prince Sultan Military Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from June 2013 to February 2014. The participants were interviewed using FOH and Screen for Child Anxiety-Related Disorders (SCARED) scales. Females had significantly higher scores on all FOH and SCARED subscales compared to males. The mean scores for many subscales of FOH and SCARED were higher in the older age group (16-18 years), in those under multiple-dose injection (MDI) treatment (compared with the insulin pump treatment), and in those with a longer duration of T1DM. Similarly, significant differences were observed in those with high frequencies of hypoglycemia, passing out, hypoglycemia while asleep and awake, and hypoglycemia in front of friends and at school. Regression analysis revealed that higher age, female gender, MDI treatment, longer duration of T1DM, higher frequencies of hypoglycemia, passing out, hypoglycemia while asleep and awake, and hypoglycemia in front of friends and at school were the risk factors associated with the majority of the FOH and SCARED subscales. The behavior of the FOH subscale correlated with all the subscales of SCARED except the subscale of generalized anxiety disorder. Similarly, the FOH subscale of worry significantly correlated with all the subscales of SCARED. The strongest determinants of higher risk for the majority of the FOH and SCARED subscales were higher age, female gender, MDI treatment, longer duration of T1DM, higher frequency of hypoglycemia, passing out due to hypoglycemia, hypoglycemia while asleep and awake, and hypoglycemia in front of friends and at school.

  10. Prediction of infection due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria by select risk factors for health care-associated pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Shorr, Andrew F; Zilberberg, Marya D; Micek, Scott T; Kollef, Marin H

    2008-11-10

    Pathogens such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa now cause pneumonia in patients presenting to the hospital. The concept of health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) attempts to capture this, but its predictive value is unclear. We examined patients admitted with pneumonia; infection with a resistant pathogen served as the study end point. Health care-associated pneumonia was present if a patient met one of the following criteria: recent hospitalization, nursing home residence, long-term hemodialysis, or immunosuppression. We compared rates of resistant infection among patients meeting any criteria for HCAP with those who did not have HCAP and explored the individual components of the definition. Among the cohort (n = 639), resistant pathogens were recovered in 289 (45.2%). Although each component of HCAP occurred more frequently in persons with resistant infections, the broad definition had a specificity of only 48.6% and misclassified one-third of the subjects. Logistic regression showed 4 variables associated with resistant pneumonia: recent hospitalization, nursing home residence, hemodialysis, and intensive care unit admission. A scoring system assigning 4, 3, 2, and 1 points, respectively, for each variable had moderate predictive power for segregating those with and without resistant bacteria. Among patients with fewer than 3 points, the prevalence of resistant pathogens was less than 20% compared with 55% and more than 75% in persons with scores ranging from 3 to 5 and more than 5 points, respectively (P < .001). Although resistance is common in HCAP, not all component criteria for HCAP convey similar risk. Simple scoring tools may facilitate more accurate identification of persons with pneumonia caused by resistant pathogens.

  11. Managing Multiple Risk Factors.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-09-01

    cardiovascular disease among black women can be better controlled through the use of a stress reduction intervention that reduces the sympathetic nervous...All participants will have high normal (130/80) or mild hypertension and at least two additional risk factors for cardiovascular disease (e.g

  12. A study on usefulness of a set of known risk factors in predicting maternal syphilis infections in three districts of Western Province, Zambia.

    PubMed

    Sakala, Jacob; Chizuni, Nellisiwe; Nzala, Selestine

    2016-01-01

    Despite roll-out of cost-effective point-of-care tests, less than half antenatal attendees in rural western Zambia are screened for syphilis. This study formulated a clinical, risk-based assessment criteria and evaluated its usefulness as a non-biomedical alternative for identifying high-risk prenatal cases. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of antenatal clinic attendees in Kaoma, Luampa and Nkeyema districts to collect data on exposure to nine pre-selected syphilis risk factors. These factors were classified into major and minor factors based on their observed pre-study association strengths to maternal syphilis. Clinical disease was defined as exposure to either two major factors, one major with two minor factors or three minor factors. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the clinical protocol were then calculated in comparison to rapid plasmin reagin results. The observed syphilis prevalence was 9.3% (95% CI: 7.4 - 11.6%) and the overall sensitivity of the study criteria was 62.3% with positive predictive value of 72.9%. Sensitivities of individual case-defining categories were even lower; from 17.4% to 33.3%. Results confirmed that abortion history, still birth, multiple sexual partners, previous maternal syphilis infection, partner history of sexually transmitted infection and maternal co-morbid conditions of HIV and genital ulcer disease were significantly associated to maternal syphilis in study population as well. The criteria was not as effective as biomedical tests in identifying maternal syphilis. However, it could be a useful adjunct/alternative in antenatal clinics when biomedical tests are either inadequate or unavailable.

  13. A study on usefulness of a set of known risk factors in predicting maternal syphilis infections in three districts of Western Province, Zambia

    PubMed Central

    Sakala, Jacob; Chizuni, Nellisiwe; Nzala, Selestine

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Despite roll-out of cost-effective point-of-care tests, less than half antenatal attendees in rural western Zambia are screened for syphilis. This study formulated a clinical, risk-based assessment criteria and evaluated its usefulness as a non-biomedical alternative for identifying high-risk prenatal cases. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of antenatal clinic attendees in Kaoma, Luampa and Nkeyema districts to collect data on exposure to nine pre-selected syphilis risk factors. These factors were classified into major and minor factors based on their observed pre-study association strengths to maternal syphilis. Clinical disease was defined as exposure to either two major factors, one major with two minor factors or three minor factors. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the clinical protocol were then calculated in comparison to rapid plasmin reagin results. Results The observed syphilis prevalence was 9.3% (95% CI: 7.4 - 11.6%) and the overall sensitivity of the study criteria was 62.3% with positive predictive value of 72.9%. Sensitivities of individual case-defining categories were even lower; from 17.4% to 33.3%. Results confirmed that abortion history, still birth, multiple sexual partners, previous maternal syphilis infection, partner history of sexually transmitted infection and maternal co-morbid conditions of HIV and genital ulcer disease were significantly associated to maternal syphilis in study population as well. Conclusion The criteria was not as effective as biomedical tests in identifying maternal syphilis. However, it could be a useful adjunct/alternative in antenatal clinics when biomedical tests are either inadequate or unavailable. PMID:27703597

  14. Risk factors and screening instruments to predict adverse outcomes for undifferentiated older emergency department patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Christopher R; Shelton, Erica; Fowler, Susan; Suffoletto, Brian; Platts-Mills, Timothy F; Rothman, Richard E; Hogan, Teresita M

    2015-01-01

    , malnutrition, pressure sore risk, and self-rated health. None of these risk factors significantly increased the risk of adverse outcome (LR+ range = 0.78 to 2.84). The absence of dependency reduces the risk of 1-year mortality (LR- = 0.27) and nursing home placement (LR- = 0.27). Five constructs of frailty were evaluated, but none increased or decreased the risk of adverse outcome. Three instruments were evaluated in the meta-analysis: Identification of Seniors at Risk, Triage Risk Screening Tool, and Variables Indicative of Placement Risk. None of these instruments significantly increased (LR+ range for various outcomes = 0.98 to 1.40) or decreased (LR- range = 0.53 to 1.11) the risk of adverse outcomes. The test threshold for 3-month functional decline based on the most accurate instrument was 42%, and the treatment threshold was 61%. Risk stratification of geriatric adults following ED care is limited by the lack of pragmatic, accurate, and reliable instruments. Although absence of dependency reduces the risk of 1-year mortality, no individual risk factor, frailty construct, or risk assessment instrument accurately predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older ED patients. Existing instruments designed to risk stratify older ED patients do not accurately distinguish high- or low-risk subsets. Clinicians, educators, and policy-makers should not use these instruments as valid predictors of post-ED adverse outcomes. Future research to derive and validate feasible ED instruments to distinguish vulnerable elders should employ published decision instrument methods and examine the contributions of alternative variables, such as health literacy and dementia, which often remain clinically occult. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  15. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  16. Geographic variation of bone mineral density and selected risk factors for prediction of incident fracture among Canadians 50 and older.

    PubMed

    Langsetmo, Lisa; Hanley, David A; Kreiger, Nancy; Jamal, Sophie A; Prior, Jerilynn; Adachi, Jonathan D; Davison, K Shawn; Kovacs, Christopher; Anastassiades, Tassos; Tenenhouse, Alan; Goltzman, David

    2008-10-01

    Striking geographic variation in the incidence of osteoporotic fracture has been shown in national and international studies. The contributing risk factors for this variation are not fully understood. To determine the geographic variation of bone mineral density (BMD) values, prevalent low-trauma fracture, prior falls, and vertebral deformity and to determine how this variation is related to the geographic variation of incident low-trauma fracture. We studied incident fracture among 2484 men and 6093 women ages 50 and older from CaMos, a randomly-selected population-based longitudinal cohort recruited from within 50 kilometers of nine cities across Canada. Analyses included up to an eight-year follow-up. Estimates of fracture incidence are all age-standardized and given per 1000 person-years and CI denotes confidence interval. Among men, the lowest incidence of low-trauma fracture was 3.2 (95% CI: 1.1-7.5) in Quebec and the highest was 11.9 (95% CI: 7.1-18.6) in Calgary, compared with an overall incidence of 7.2 (95% CI: 5.8-8.7). Among women, the lowest incidence of low-trauma fracture was 11.5 (95% CI: 8.5-15.1) in Halifax and the highest was 18.5 (95% CI: 14.6-23.3) in Calgary, compared with an overall incidence of 15.3 (95% CI: 14.1-16.7). The regional variation in low-trauma fractures was similar to variation in hip fracture incidence among women (Pearson correlation, r=0.46 to 0.76) but not men (r=-0.06 to 0.05). We noted significant geographic variation in the prevalence of low BMD, as defined by BMD T-score< or =-2.5, however this variation was not directly related to low-trauma fractures or other risk factors. Furthermore, a model including age, BMD, falls, vertebral deformity, and prior clinical fracture was a good predictor of geographic variation of low-trauma fracture incidence in both men (r=0.66) and women (r=0.84). For both men and women, the burden of low-trauma fracture is not related to the prevalence of osteoporosis as defined by BMD, but is

  17. Factors predicting the increased risk for return to the operating room in bariatric patients: a NSQIP database study.

    PubMed

    Nandipati, Kalyana; Lin, Edward; Husain, Farah; Perez, Sebastian; Srinivasan, Jahnavi; Sweeney, John F; Davis, S Scott

    2013-04-01

    The objective of the study was to assess the risk factors associated with return to the operating room in bariatric surgery patients. Using the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Project's participant-use file, patients who underwent laparoscopic gastric bypass (LRYGB) and adjustable gastric band (LAGB) procedures for morbid obesity were identified. Several pre-, peri-, and postoperative variables, including 30 day morbidity and mortality, were collected. The study population was divided into two groups: patients returning to the operating room (group 1), and patients not returning to the operating room (group 2). Variables analyzed included postoperative complications, overall morbidity, and mortality. Relationships between preoperative and perioperative factors leading to the return to the operating room also were analyzed. Of 28,241 (LRYGB = 18,671, LAGB = 9,570) patients included in the study, 644 (2.3 %) patients returned to the operating room. Of the study population, 30 day mortality rate was 0.13 % (37/28,241) and morbidity was 4.1 % (1,155/28,241). Patients returning to the operating room had a higher mortality [14/644 (2.2 %) vs. 23/27,597 (0.01 %); P < 0.001], and morbidity [258/644 (40 %) vs. 897/27,579 (3.3 %); P < 0.001] compared with those who did not return to the operating room. Postoperative complications (superficial wound infection, deep surgical site infection, organ space infection, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, renal insufficiency, renal failure, septic shock, and length of stay) were significantly higher for patients who required reoperation. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the bypass operation, bleeding disorder, patients on dialysis, preoperative hematocrit, preoperative low albumin, and length of operation were associated with increased risk of return to the operating room. In the bariatric population, return to the operating room is associated with significantly higher morbidity and

  18. Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Zucker, David M; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2014-04-01

    Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement.

  19. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  20. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  1. Positive Psychosocial Factors in Childhood Predicting Lower Risk for Adult Type 2 Diabetes: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study, 1980-2012.

    PubMed

    Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Hakulinen, Christian; Lipsanen, Jari; Kubzansky, Laura D; Hintsanen, Mirka; Savelieva, Kateryna; Serlachius, Anna; Magnussen, Costan G; Sabin, Matthew A; Burgner, David P; Lehtimäki, Terho; Jokinen, Eero; Rönnemaa, Tapani; Mikkilä, Vera; Jula, Antti; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli; Juonala, Markus

    2017-06-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a public health concern, but psychosocial factors that may protect against the disease are unknown. This study examines whether a positive psychosocial environment in childhood is associated with lower risk for Type 2 diabetes in adulthood or healthier glucose trajectories over the life course, and whether BMI mediates the associations. A cohort of 3,596 Finnish children was followed into adulthood over 32 years. An overall positive psychosocial score, consisting of six subdomains, was measured at study baseline (1980). Relative risk ratios and multilevel growth curve modeling were used to examine associations of the psychosocial score with Type 2 diabetes (2012) and glucose trajectories (1986-2012). The mediating effect by BMI was examined using mediation analysis. The analyses were conducted between June 2015 and January 2016. There was a 21% decrease in the rate of Type 2 diabetes (relative risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI=0.66, 0.94) for each 1-SD increase in the positive psychosocial score after adjustment for childhood cardiovascular risk factors and dietary behaviors. Adult BMI mediated 52% and weight gain mediated 25% of the association. The growth curve model showed healthier glucose trajectories (age X psychosocial score interaction, b= -0.01; p=0.010) for participants with higher versus lower positive psychosocial score in childhood. Positive psychosocial environment in childhood seems to have beneficial influences on the risk for Type 2 diabetes over the life span. RCTs will be required to see if interventions directed at early-life circumstances are warranted. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Cognitive and emotional factors predicting decisional conflict among high-risk breast cancer survivors who receive uninformative BRCA1/2 results.

    PubMed

    Rini, Christine; O'Neill, Suzanne C; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Goldsmith, Rachel E; Jandorf, Lina; Brown, Karen; DeMarco, Tiffani A; Peshkin, Beth N; Schwartz, Marc D

    2009-09-01

    To investigate high-risk breast cancer survivors' risk reduction decision making and decisional conflict after an uninformative BRCA1/2 test. Prospective, longitudinal study of 182 probands undergoing BRCA1/2 testing, with assessments 1-, 6-, and 12-months postdisclosure. Primary predictors were health beliefs and emotional responses to testing assessed 1-month postdisclosure. Main outcomes included women's perception of whether they had made a final risk management decision (decision status) and decisional conflict related to this issue. There were four patterns of decision making, depending on how long it took women to make a final decision and the stability of their decision status across assessments. Late decision makers and nondecision makers reported the highest decisional conflict; however, substantial numbers of women--even early and intermediate decision makers--reported elevated decisional conflict. Analyses predicting decisional conflict 1- and 12-months postdisclosure found that, after accounting for control variables and decision status, health beliefs and emotional factors predicted decisional conflict at different timepoints, with health beliefs more important 1 month after test disclosure and emotional factors more important 1 year later. Many of these women may benefit from decision making assistance. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. [Pathological gambling: risk factors].

    PubMed

    Bouju, G; Grall-Bronnec, M; Landreat-Guillou, M; Venisse, J-L

    2011-09-01

    In France, consumption of gambling games increased by 148% between 1960 and 2005. In 2004, gamblers lost approximately 0.9% of household income, compared to 0.4% in 1960. This represents approximately 134 Euros per year and per head. In spite of this important increase, the level remains lower than the European average (1%). However, gambling practices may continue to escalate in France in the next few years, particularly with the recent announce of the legalisation of online games and sports betting. With the spread of legalised gambling, pathological gambling rates may increase in France in the next years, in response to more widely available and more attractive gambling opportunities. In this context, there is a need for better understanding of the risk factors that are implicated in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. This paper briefly describes the major risk factors for pathological gambling by examining the recent published literature available during the first quarter of 2008. This documentary basis was collected by Inserm for the collective expert report procedure on Gambling (contexts and addictions). Seventy-two articles focusing on risk factors for pathological gambling were considered in this review. Only 47 of them were taken into account for analysis. The selection of these 47 publications was based on the guide on literature analysis established by the French National Agency for Accreditation and Assessment in Health (ANAES, 2000). Some publications from more recent literature have also been added, mostly about Internet gambling. We identify three major types of risk factors implicated in gambling problems: some of them are related to the subject (individual factors), others are related to the object of the addiction, here the gambling activity by itself (structural factors), and the last are related to environment (contextual or situational factors). Thus, the development and maintenance of pathological gambling seems to be

  4. Prevalence of delirium among patients at a cancer ward: Clinical risk factors and prediction by bedside cognitive tests.

    PubMed

    Grandahl, Mia Gall; Nielsen, Svend Erik; Koerner, Ejnar Alex; Schultz, Helga Holm; Arnfred, Sidse Marie

    2016-08-01

    Background Delirium is a frequent psychiatric complication to cancer, but rarely recognized by oncologists. Aims 1. To estimate the prevalence of delirium among inpatients admitted at an oncological cancer ward 2. To investigate whether simple clinical factors predict delirium 3. To examine the value of cognitive testing in the assessment of delirium. Methods On five different days, we interviewed and assessed patients admitted to a Danish cancer ward. The World Health Organization International Classification of Diseases Version 10, WHO ICD-10 Diagnostic System and the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) were used for diagnostic categorization. Clinical information was gathered from medical records and all patients were tested with Mini Cognitive Test, The Clock Drawing Test, and the Digit Span Test. Results 81 cancer patients were assessed and 33% were diagnosed with delirium. All delirious participants were CAM positive. Poor performance on the cognitive tests was associated with delirium. Medical records describing CNS metastases, benzodiazepine or morphine treatment were associated with delirium. Conclusions Delirium is prevalent among cancer inpatients. The Mini Cognitive Test, The Clock Drawing Test, and the Digit Span Test can be used as screening tools for delirium among inpatients with cancer, but even in synergy, they lack specificity. Combining cognitive testing and attention to nurses' records might improve detection, yet further studies are needed to create a more detailed patient profile for the detection of delirium.

  5. Predicting older adults who return to the hospital or die within 30 days of emergency department care using the ISAR tool: subjective versus objective risk factors.

    PubMed

    Suffoletto, Brian; Miller, Thomas; Shah, Rahul; Callaway, Clifton; Yealy, Donald M

    2016-01-01

    We sought to evaluate the ability of the Identification of Seniors At Risk (ISAR) tool to differentiate between older adult patients having a poor outcome within 30 days of emergency department (ED) care and those who do not. We compare prognostic accuracy of subjective versus objective risk factors. 202 community-dwelling patients age 65 years and older presenting to two EDs were prospectively enrolled. Participants completed the six-question ISAR and objective testing (cognition, ambulation, vision). We reviewed electronic medical records for current medications, hospitalisations in the past six months, ED disposition, length of hospital stay, subsequent ED visits or inpatient admissions or death at 30 days. Participants were given a point for each risk factor present; subjective and objective risk factors were scored separately. We tested ability of individual risk factors and scores to predict a composite outcome of subsequent ED visit, postdischarge hospitalisation or death by day 30 after the index ED visit. We computed receiver operating curve area under the curves (AUC) to determine tool discrimination. 23% of participants had a poor 30-day outcome. The optimum subjective ISAR cut-off score for screening was ≥2, which was present in 84% of participants, had a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 19%. Using the subjective ISAR tool, the AUC was 0.66. The optimum objective ISAR-related risk cut-off score for screening was ≥3, which was present in 82% of participants, had a sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 40%. Using the objective ISAR-related tool, the AUC was 0.69. The self-reported ISAR tool did not discriminate well between older adults with or without 30-day hospital revisit or death. An optimum score of ≥2 would identify many older adults at no apparent increased risk of poor outcomes at 30 days. Using objective ISAR-related risk factors did not improve overall discrimination. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For

  6. Efficacy of an Overnight Predictive Low-Glucose Suspend System in Relation to Hypoglycemia Risk Factors in Youth and Adults With Type 1 Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Calhoun, Peter M; Buckingham, Bruce A; Maahs, David M; Hramiak, Irene; Wilson, Darrell M; Aye, Tandy; Clinton, Paula; Chase, Peter; Messer, Laurel; Kollman, Craig; Beck, Roy W; Lum, John

    2016-11-01

    We developed a system to suspend insulin pump delivery overnight when the glucose trend predicts hypoglycemia. This predictive low-glucose suspend (PLGS) system substantially reduces nocturnal hypoglycemia without an increase in morning ketosis. Evaluation of hypoglycemia risk factors that could potentially influence the efficacy of the system remains critical for understanding possible problems with the system and identifying patients that may have the greatest benefit when using the system. The at-home randomized trial consisted of 127 study participants with hemoglobin A1c (A1C) of ≤8.5% (mmol/mol) for patients aged 4-14 years and ≤8.0% for patient aged 15-45 years. Factors assessed included age, gender, A1C, diabetes duration, daily percentage basal insulin, total daily dose of insulin (units/kg-day), bedtime BG, bedtime snack, insulin on board, continuous glucose monitor (CGM) rate of change (ROC), day of the week, time system activated, daytime exercise intensity, and daytime CGM-measured hypoglycemia. The PLGS system was effective in preventing hypoglycemia for each factor subgroup. There was no evidence that the PLGS system was more or less effective in preventing hypoglycemia in any one subgroup compared with the other subgroups based on that factor. In addition, the effect of the system on overnight hyperglycemia did not differ in subgroups. The PLGS system tested in this study effectively reduced hypoglycemia without a meaningful increase in hyperglycemia across a variety of factors. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

  7. Breast cancer risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Ciszewski, Tomasz; Łopacka-Szatan, Karolina; Miotła, Paweł; Starosławska, Elżbieta

    2015-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed neoplastic disease in women around menopause often leading to a significant reduction of these women's ability to function normally in everyday life. The increased breast cancer incidence observed in epidemiological studies in a group of women actively participating in social and professional life implicates the necessity of conducting multidirectional studies in order to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of this type of neoplasm. Taking the possibility of influencing the neoplastic transformation process in individuals as a criterion, all the risk factors initiating the process can be divided into two groups. The first group would include inherent factors such as age, sex, race, genetic makeup promoting familial occurrence of the neoplastic disease or the occurrence of benign proliferative lesions of the mammary gland. They all constitute independent parameters and do not undergo simple modification in the course of an individual's life. The second group would include extrinsic factors conditioned by lifestyle, diet or long-term medical intervention such as using oral hormonal contraceptives or hormonal replacement therapy and their influence on the neoplastic process may be modified to a certain degree. Identification of modifiable factors may contribute to development of prevention strategies decreasing breast cancer incidence. PMID:26528110

  8. Assessment and Predicting Factors of Repeated Brain Computed Tomography in Traumatic Brain Injury Patients for Risk-Stratified Care Management: A 5-Year Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Sumritpradit, Preeda; Setthalikhit, Thitipong

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objective. To determine the value of repeated brain CT in TBI cases for risk-stratified care management (RSCM) and to identify predicting factors which will change the neurosurgical management after repeated brain CTs. Methods. A 5-year retrospective study from January 2009 to August 2013 was conducted. The primary outcome was the value of repeated brain CT in TBI cases. The secondary outcome is to identify predicting factors which will change the neurosurgical management after repeated brain CTs. Results. There were 145 consecutive patients with TBI and repeated brain CT after initial abnormal brain CT. Forty-two percent of all cases (N = 61) revealed the progression of intracranial hemorrhage after repeated brain CT. In all 145 consecutive patients, 67.6% of cases (N = 98) were categorized as mild TBI. For mild head injury, 8.2% of cases (N = 8) had undergone neurosurgical management after repeated brain CT. Only 1 from 74 mild TBI patients with repeated brain CT had neurosurgical intervention. Clopidogrel and midline shift more than 2 mm on initial brain CT were significant predicting factors to indicate the neurosurgical management in mild TBI cases. Conclusion. Routine repeated brain CT for RSCM had no clinical benefit in mild TBI cases. PMID:27703812

  9. Patient-specific risk factors are predictive for postoperative adverse events in colorectal surgery: an American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Kohut, Adrian Y; Liu, James J; Stein, David E; Sensenig, Richard; Poggio, Juan L

    2015-02-01

    Pay-for-performance measures incorporate surgical site infection rates into reimbursement algorithms without accounting for patient-specific risk factors predictive for surgical site infections and other adverse postoperative outcomes. Using American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data of 67,445 colorectal patients, multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine independent risk factors associated with various measures of adverse postoperative outcomes. Notable patient-specific factors included (number of models containing predictor variable; range of odds ratios [ORs] from all models): American Society of Anesthesiologists class 3, 4, or 5 (7 of 7 models; OR 1.25 to 1.74), open procedures (7 of 7 models; OR .51 to 4.37), increased body mass index (6 of 7 models; OR 1.15 to 2.19), history of COPD (6 of 7 models; OR 1.19 to 1.64), smoking (6 of 7 models; OR 1.15 to 1.61), wound class 3 or 4 (6 of 7 models; OR 1.22 to 1.56), sepsis (6 of 7 models; OR 1.14 to 1.89), corticosteroid administration (5 of 7 models; OR 1.11 to 2.24), and operation duration more than 3 hours (5 of 7 models; OR 1.41 to 1.76). These findings may be used to pre-emptively identify colorectal surgery patients at increased risk of experiencing adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Lameness Prevalence and Risk Factors in Large Dairy Farms in Upstate New York. Model Development for the Prediction of Claw Horn Disruption Lesions

    PubMed Central

    Foditsch, Carla; Oikonomou, Georgios; Machado, Vinícius Silva; Bicalho, Marcela Luccas; Ganda, Erika Korzune; Lima, Svetlana Ferreira; Rossi, Rodolfo; Ribeiro, Bruno Leonardo; Kussler, Arieli; Bicalho, Rodrigo Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    The main objectives of this prospective cohort study were a) to describe lameness prevalence at drying off in large high producing New York State herds based on visual locomotion score (VLS) and identify potential cow and herd level risk factors, and b) to develop a model that will predict the probability of a cow developing claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) in the subsequent lactation using cow level variables collected at drying off and/or available from farm management software. Data were collected from 23 large commercial dairy farms located in upstate New York. A total of 7,687 dry cows, that were less than 265 days in gestation, were enrolled in the study. Farms were visited between May 2012 and March 2013, and cows were assessed for body condition score (BCS) and VLS. Data on the CHDL events recorded by the farm employees were extracted from the Dairy-Comp 305 database, as well as information regarding the studied cows’ health events, milk production, and reproductive records throughout the previous and subsequent lactation period. Univariable analyses and mixed multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data at the cow level. The overall average prevalence of lameness (VLS > 2) at drying off was 14%. Lactation group, previous CHDL, mature equivalent 305-d milk yield (ME305), season, BCS at drying off and sire PTA for strength were all significantly associated with lameness at the drying off (cow-level). Lameness at drying off was associated with CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation, as well as lactation group, previous CHDL and ME305. These risk factors for CHDL in the subsequent lactation were included in our predictive model and adjusted predicted probabilities for CHDL were calculated for all studied cows. ROC analysis identified an optimum cut-off point for these probabilities and using this cut-off point we could predict CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation with an overall specificity of 75% and sensitivity of 59

  11. Unresolved loss, a risk factor for offspring, predicts event-related potential responses to death-related imagery.

    PubMed

    Bahm, Naomi I Gribneau; Simon-Thomas, Emiliana R; Main, Mary; Hesse, Erik

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates whether individual differences in attachment status can be detected by electrophysiological responses to loss-themed pictures. The Adult Attachment Interview (AAI) was used to identify discourse/reasoning lapses during the discussion of loss experiences via death that place speakers in the Unresolved/disorganized AAI category. In parents, Unresolved AAI status has been associated with Disorganized infant Strange Situation response, a known risk factor for psychopathology (e.g., internalizing/externalizing/dissociation). This association has been related to anomalous frightening (FR) parental behavior in the infant's presence, behavior presumed to be instigated by vulnerability to trauma-related fright. Here, psychophysiological methods were utilized to examine whether Unresolved AAI status could be detected in brain responses to subtle/symbolic reminders of loss. One year after AAI administration, 31 undergraduate women who had experienced loss (16 Unresolved) underwent continuous electroencephalogram (EEG) recording during a picture-viewing, valence-rating task. Picture onset-locked event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed millisecond responses to 4 picture categories: pleasant people, pleasant nature, cemetery (symbolic death), and gruesome death (dead or dying people). Participants' valence ratings did not differ between groups across picture categories. However, the N2 ERP, implicated in detecting stimulus salience, was selectively greater in Unresolved participants viewing cemetery scenes; it was in fact as high as the N2 for gruesome death images observed throughout the sample. Additionally, Unresolved participants exhibited a right-hemispheric P3 asymmetry across picture categories, suggestive of continuously heightened vigilance/arousal. Together, these results suggest that Unresolved AAI status is associated with greater neurophysiological sensitivity to subtle reminders of loss that may disrupt ongoing mental function. (Psyc

  12. Predictions Burden of Diabetes and Economics Cost: Contributing Risk Factors of Changing Disease Prevalence and its Pandemic Impact to Qatar.

    PubMed

    Bener, A; Al-Hamaq, A O A A

    2016-09-01

    Background: The Middle East region is predicted to have one of the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the world. The risk of diabetes continues to increase worldwide and its public health burden is unevenly distributed across socioeconomic strata. This burden is not only related to health care costs, but also to indirect costs caused by loss of productivity from disability and premature mortality. Aim: This study aims to estimate the economics cost of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus [T2DM] among adults in Qatar using national data, and to quantify the potential effect of a suggested preventive intervention program. Design: It is an observational cohort study. Setting: The survey was based on registry at the Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers in the State of Qatar. Subject: This study consisted of patients above 25 years of age with diagnosed diabetes mellitus registered at Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers during January 2004 to July 2014. Methods: We developed a dynamic model in which actual incidence, prevalence, and life expectancy data are used and alternative assumptions about future trends in these parameters can be incorporated. Linear regression model has been performed to forecast the burden of diabetes in oil-rich country. Results: According to the dynamic model, a 10% increased in the number of diabetic patients in the State of Qatar from 33 610 in 2005 to 122 000 in 2012 (about 1% annually). The annual diabetes incidence rate was higher in women than in men during a period between 2005 to 2015 years. The static model forecasted as 10% increase over 10 years. The relative increase in prevalence of diabetes and number of diabetic people are higher in women than in men (16.6%; 17.5% and 18.4% in men vs. 22.6%; 23.8% and 25.1% in women). Most of the increase in prevalence of diabetes is projected to occur in younger age groups where it is estimated to increase among age groups of 50-59 years and

  13. Accuracy of Centerline of Flow Measurement for Sizing of the Zenith AAA Endovascular Graft and Predictive Factor for Risk of Inadequate Sizing

    SciTech Connect

    Higashiura, Wataru Kichikawa, Kimihiko; Sakaguchi, Shoji; Tabayashi, Nobuoki; Taniguchi, Shigeki; Uchida, Hideo

    2009-05-15

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of centerline of flow (CLF) measurement for precise sizing of the Zenith AAA endovascular graft (Zenith) and to identify predictive factors of risk of inadequate endograft sizing. We analyzed 42 consecutive patients treated using the Zenith with pre- and postoperative multidetector CT between 2001 and 2007. Endograft sizing was retrospectively performed using CLF on a three-dimensional workstation. The following parameters were investigated: (a) change in distance from lowest renal artery to hypogastric artery between CLF on preoperative CT (CLFp) and CLF of graft path on postoperative CT (CLFg); (b) supposed success rate of adequate endograft length selection; and (c) predictive factors for significant alteration (>10 mm) between CLFp and CLFg. Median change in distance from lowest renal artery to hypogastric artery was 4 mm. CLFg was >10 mm shorter than CLFp in 10 of 84 limbs (12%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated tortuosity index (TI) of infrarenal abdominal aorta (p = 0.019), aneurysm diameter (p = 0.035), and ipsilateral side of the main body insertion (p = 0.042) as predictive factors of significant alteration between CLFp and CLFg. Adequate endograft length selection was achieved in 39 of 42 cases (93%). All three inadequate endograft length selections were associated with tortuous aorta (TI > 20 mm). In conclusion, distance calculations based on CLF measurement provided accurate length selection of the Zenith in the majority of cases. TI, aneurysm diameter, and ipsilateral side were predictive factors for significant alteration. The CLF and aortic measurements including the TI may allow for improved sizing for Zenith placements.

  14. Accuracy of centerline of flow measurement for sizing of the Zenith AAA endovascular graft and predictive factor for risk of inadequate sizing.

    PubMed

    Higashiura, Wataru; Kichikawa, Kimihiko; Sakaguchi, Shoji; Tabayashi, Nobuoki; Taniguchi, Shigeki; Uchida, Hideo

    2009-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of centerline of flow (CLF) measurement for precise sizing of the Zenith AAA endovascular graft (Zenith) and to identify predictive factors of risk of inadequate endograft sizing. We analyzed 42 consecutive patients treated using the Zenith with pre- and postoperative multidetector CT between 2001 and 2007. Endograft sizing was retrospectively performed using CLF on a three-dimensional workstation. The following parameters were investigated: (a) change in distance from lowest renal artery to hypogastric artery between CLF on preoperative CT (CLFp) and CLF of graft path on postoperative CT (CLFg); (b) supposed success rate of adequate endograft length selection; and (c) predictive factors for significant alteration (>10 mm) between CLFp and CLFg. Median change in distance from lowest renal artery to hypogastric artery was 4 mm. CLFg was >10 mm shorter than CLFp in 10 of 84 limbs (12%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated tortuosity index (TI) of infrarenal abdominal aorta (p = 0.019), aneurysm diameter (p = 0.035), and ipsilateral side of the main body insertion (p = 0.042) as predictive factors of significant alteration between CLFp and CLFg. Adequate endograft length selection was achieved in 39 of 42 cases (93%). All three inadequate endograft length selections were associated with tortuous aorta (TI > 20 mm). In conclusion, distance calculations based on CLF measurement provided accurate length selection of the Zenith in the majority of cases. TI, aneurysm diameter, and ipsilateral side were predictive factors for significant alteration. The CLF and aortic measurements including the TI may allow for improved sizing for Zenith placements.

  15. Utility of combinations of biomarkers, cognitive markers, and risk factors to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease in patients in the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative.

    PubMed

    Gomar, Jesus J; Bobes-Bascaran, Maria T; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E

    2011-09-01

    Biomarkers have become increasingly important in understanding neurodegenerative processes associated with Alzheimer disease. Markers include regional brain volumes, cerebrospinal fluid measures of pathological Aβ1-42 and total tau, cognitive measures, and individual risk factors. To determine the discriminative utility of different classes of biomarkers and cognitive markers by examining their ability to predict a change in diagnostic status from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Longitudinal study. We analyzed the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database to study patients with mild cognitive impairment who converted to Alzheimer disease (n = 116) and those who did not convert (n = 204) within a 2-year period. We determined the predictive utility of 25 variables from all classes of markers, biomarkers, and risk factors in a series of logistic regression models and effect size analyses. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative public database. Primary outcome measures were odds ratios, pseudo- R(2)s, and effect sizes. In comprehensive stepwise logistic regression models that thus included variables from all classes of markers, the following baseline variables predicted conversion within a 2-year period: 2 measures of delayed verbal memory and middle temporal lobe cortical thickness. In an effect size analysis that examined rates of decline, change scores for biomarkers were modest for 2 years, but a change in an everyday functional activities measure (Functional Assessment Questionnaire) was considerably larger. Decline in scores on the Functional Assessment Questionnaire and Trail Making Test, part B, accounted for approximately 50% of the predictive variance in conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Cognitive markers at baseline were more robust predictors of conversion than most biomarkers. Longitudinal analyses suggested that conversion appeared to be driven less by changes in the neurobiologic

  16. Moderate to Vigorous Physical Activity as a Protective Factor in the Context of Risk: A Moderator Model Predicting Institutional Commitment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilbourne, Brianne Fariss

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this quantitative, non-experimental correlational study was to determine if cumulative risk is associated with undergraduate student institutional commitment. Additionally, moderate to vigorous physical activity was investigated as a moderator of the association between cumulative risk and institutional commitment, specifically…

  17. Risk Factors for Eating Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Striegel-Moore, Ruth H.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

    2007-01-01

    The authors review research on risk factors for eating disorders, restricting their focus to studies in which clear precedence of the hypothesized risk factor over onset of the disorder is established. They illustrate how studies of sociocultural risk factors and biological factors have progressed on parallel tracks and propose that major advances…

  18. Predictive factors for poor prognosis febrile neutropenia.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Shin; Lee, Yoon-Seon

    2012-07-01

    Most patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia recover rapidly without serious complications. However, it still remains a life-threatening treatment-related toxicity, and is associated with dose reductions and delays of chemotherapeutic agents that may compromise treatment outcomes. Recent developments of risk stratification enabled early discharge with oral antibiotics for low-risk patients. However, even in low-risk patients, medical complications including bacteremia could happen. The authors reviewed recent literature to provide an update on research regarding predictive factors for poor prognosis in patients with febrile neutropenia. Various prognostic factors have been suggested with controversies. Hematological parameters, prophylactic measurements and patient-specific risk factors showed inconsistent results. MASCC risk-index score, which was originally developed to identify low-risk patients, in turn showed that the lower the MASCC score, the poorer the prognosis of febrile neutropenia, with very low levels (<15), the rate of complications was high. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock commonly had procalcitonin concentration above 2.0 ng/ml, and this level should be considered at high risk of poor prognosis. Lower MASCC score and higher procalcitonin concentration can predict poor outcomes in febrile neutropenia. More research is required with regard to the other factors showing controversies.

  19. Risk Factors for Cholelithiasis.

    PubMed

    Pak, Mila; Lindseth, Glenda

    2016-01-01

    Gallstone disease is one of the most common public health problems in the United States. Approximately 10%-20% of the national adult populations currently carry gallstones, and gallstone prevalence is rising. In addition, nearly 750,000 cholecystectomies are performed annually in the United States; direct and indirect costs of gallbladder surgery are estimated to be $6.5 billion. Cholelithiasis is also strongly associated with gallbladder, pancreatic, and colorectal cancer occurrence. Moreover, the National Institutes of Health estimates that almost 3,000 deaths (0.12% of all deaths) per year are attributed to complications of cholelithiasis and gallbladder disease. Although extensive research has tried to identify risk factors for cholelithiasis, several studies indicate that definitive findings still remain elusive. In this review, predisposing factors for cholelithiasis are identified, the pathophysiology of gallstone disease is described, and nonsurgical preventive options are discussed. Understanding the risk factors for cholelithiasis may not only be useful in assisting nurses to provide resources and education for patients who are diagnosed with gallstones, but also in developing novel preventive measures for the disease.

  20. Can the optimal type of stent be predicted based on clinical risk factors? A subgroup analysis of the randomized BASKET-PROVE trial.

    PubMed

    Vassalli, Giuseppe; Klersy, Catherine; De Servi, Stefano; Galatius, Soeren; Erne, Paul; Eberli, Franz; Rickli, Hans; Hornig, Burkhard; Bertel, Osmund; Bonetti, Piero; Moccetti, Tiziano; Kaiser, Christoph; Pfisterer, Matthias; Pedrazzini, Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    The randomized BASKET-PROVE study showed no significant differences between sirolimus-eluting stents (SES), everolimus-eluting stents (EES), and bare-metal stents (BMS) with respect to the primary end point, rates of death from cardiac causes, or myocardial infarction (MI) at 2 years of follow-up, in patients requiring stenting of a large coronary artery. Clinical risk factors may affect clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary interventions. We present a retrospective analysis of the BASKET-PROVE data addressing the question as to whether the optimal type of stent can be predicted based on a cumulative clinical risk score. A total of 2,314 patients (mean age 66 years) who underwent coronary angioplasty and implantation of ≥1 stents that were ≥3.0 mm in diameter were randomly assigned to receive SES, EES, or BMS. A cumulative clinical risk score was derived using a Cox model that included age, gender, cardiovascular risk factors (hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, family history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, smoking), presence of ≥2 comorbidities (stroke, peripheral artery disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic rheumatic disease), a history of MI or coronary revascularization, and clinical presentation (stable angina, unstable angina, ST-segment elevation MI). An aggregate drug-eluting stent (DES) group (n = 1,549) comprising 775 patients receiving SES and 774 patients receiving EES was compared to 765 patients receiving BMS. Rates of death from cardiac causes or nonfatal MI at 2 years of follow-up were significantly increased in patients who were in the high tertile of risk stratification for the clinical risk score compared to those who were in the aggregate low-mid tertiles. In patients with a high clinical risk score, rates of death from cardiac causes or nonfatal MI were lower in patients receiving DES (2.4 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 1.6-3.6) compared with BMS (5.5 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 3.7-8.2, hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0

  1. Injury rates in martial art athletes: anthropometric parameters and training volume, but not foot morphology indexes, are predictive risk factors for lower limb injuries.

    PubMed

    Vitale, Jacopo A; Bassani, Tito; Galbusera, Fabio; Bianchi, Alberto; Martinelli, Nicolò

    2017-09-22

    Previous studies attempted to identify possible risk factors for acute and overuse injuries in several sports disciplines such as running, gymnastics or team sports. Given the lack of scientific works focused on risk factors for lower limb injuries in martial arts, the present study was aimed to investigate foot anatomy, anthropometric measures, and other background information as possible risk factors of injury in barefoot athletes practicing judo, karate, kung fu, thai boxe, or aikido. In addition, the injury rates were evaluated in relation with the different martial art styles. One group of 130 martial artists was retrospectively evaluated. Data of three foot morphological variables were collected: navicular height (NH), navicular drop (ND) and the rear foot (RF). In addition, each participant filled an interview questionnaire providing the following information: age, sex, body weight, height, BMI, hours of training per week, the kind of injury occurred to the lower limbs in the preceding year. Of 130 subjects, 70 (53.8%) did not sustain injuries, 35 (27.0%) suffered an acute injury and the remaining 25 (19.2%) reported an overuse injury. No significant differences were observed in the injury rates in relation to style and kind of martial art. Age, training volume and BMI were found as significant predictors of injury, while NH, ND and RF were not able to predict acute or overuse injury at lower limbs. The injury rates were similar in karate, judo, kung fu, aikido, and thai boxe. The foot morphology variables were not related with the presence or absence of acute and overuse injuries. Conversely, older and heavier martial artists, performing more hours of barefoot training, are at higher risk of acute and overuse injury. Athletic trainers should strongly take into account the present information in order to develop more accurate and specific injury prevention programs for martial artists.

  2. Predictive risk factors of serious infections in patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with abatacept in common practice: results from the Orencia and Rheumatoid Arthritis (ORA) registry.

    PubMed

    Salmon, J H; Gottenberg, J E; Ravaud, P; Cantagrel, A; Combe, B; Flipo, R M; Schaeverbeke, T; Houvenagel, E; Gaudin, P; Loeuille, D; Rist, S; Dougados, M; Sibilia, J; Le Loët, X; Meyer, O; Solau-Gervais, E; Marcelli, C; Bardin, T; Pane, I; Baron, G; Perrodeau, E; Mariette, X

    2016-06-01

    Little data are available regarding the rate and predicting factors of serious infections in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with abatacept (ABA) in daily practice. We therefore addressed this issue using real-life data from the Orencia and Rheumatoid Arthritis (ORA) registry. ORA is an independent 5-year prospective registry promoted by the French Society of Rheumatology that includes patients with RA treated with ABA. At baseline, 3 months, 6 months and every 6 months or at disease relapse, during 5 years, standardised information is prospectively collected by trained clinical nurses. A serious infection was defined as an infection occurring during treatment with ABA or during the 3 months following withdrawal of ABA without any initiation of a new biologic and requiring hospitalisation and/or intravenous antibiotics and/or resulting in death. Baseline characteristics and comorbidities: among the 976 patients included with a follow-up of at least 3 months (total follow-up of 1903 patient-years), 78 serious infections occurred in 69 patients (4.1/100 patient-years). Predicting factors of serious infections: on univariate analysis, an older age, history of previous serious or recurrent infections, diabetes and a lower number of previous anti-tumour necrosis factor were associated with a higher risk of serious infections. On multivariate analysis, only age (HR per 10-year increase 1.44, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.76, p=0.001) and history of previous serious or recurrent infections (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.20, p=0.009) were significantly associated with a higher risk of serious infections. In common practice, patients treated with ABA had more comorbidities than in clinical trials and serious infections were slightly more frequently observed. In the ORA registry, predictive risk factors of serious infections include age and history of serious infections. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

  3. Salivary Gland Cancer: Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cancer > Salivary Gland Cancer: Risk Factors Request Permissions Salivary Gland Cancer: Risk Factors Approved by the Cancer.Net ... f t k e P Types of Cancer Salivary Gland Cancer Guide Cancer.Net Guide Salivary Gland Cancer ...

  4. [Cardiovascular risk factors in women].

    PubMed

    Cengel, Atiye

    2010-03-01

    It is estimated that at least 80% of patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) have conventional risk factors and optimization of these risk factors can reduce morbidity and mortality due to this disease considerably. Contemporary women have increased burden of some of these risk factors such as obesity, metabolic syndrome and smoking. Turkish women have a worse CV risk profile than Turkish men in some aspects. Risk stratification systems such as Framingham have a tendency of underestimating the risk in women. Coronary artery disease remains in vessel wall for a longer period of time in women; therefore obstructive disease appear later in their lifespan necessitating risk stratification systems for estimating their lifetime risk.

  5. Longitudinal Risk and Resilience Factors Predicting Psychiatric Disruption, Mental Health Service Utilization & Military Retention in OIF National Guard Troops

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-04-01

    Prescribed by ANSI Std . Z39.18 Page 3 Table of Contents...Minneapolis, MN 5541, United StatesQ2 6 c Department of Psychiatry, University of Minnesota Medical School, 420 Delaware Street, S.E. Minneapolis, MN 55455...Krueger, R. F. (1999). Personality traits in late adolescence predict mental disorders in 600 early adulthood: A prospective epidemiological study

  6. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  7. Trefoil Factor 3 Predicts Incident Chronic Kidney Disease: A Case-Control Study Nested within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

    PubMed Central

    Astor, Brad C.; Köttgen, Anna; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Bhavsar, Nrupen; Fox, Caroline S.; Coresh, Josef

    2011-01-01

    Background Early detection of individuals at high risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) may aid prevention. Urinary levels of trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) are associated with acute kidney injury in animal models, but the association of TFF3 levels with incident CKD in humans is unknown. Methods We conducted a case-control study nested within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and the ARIC Carotid MRI Study to determine whether urinary TFF3 levels predict incident CKD over 8.6 years of follow-up. A total of 143 participants with incident CKD (eGFR decreasing by ≥25% to <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) were matched on age, sex and race to 143 non-cases. Results Higher TFF3 levels at baseline were strongly associated with Black race, diabetes (both p = 0.002), and antihypertensive medication use (p = 0.02). Compared to participants with TFF3 levels in the lowest quartile, the odds ratio (OR) of incident CKD was 1.84 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80, 4.22) for individuals with TFF3 levels in the second quartile, 2.43 (95% CI: 1.06, 5.53) for the third quartile, and 2.77 (95% CI: 1.22, 6.28) for the fourth quartile (p trend = 0.02). Adjustment for covariates, including urinary albumin: creatinine ratio, did not markedly change the associations. Twofold higher TFF3 levels were strongly associated with incident CKD after adjustment for CKD risk factors (adjusted OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.64). Conclusions Higher urinary TFF3 levels may indicate ongoing repair of damage in the kidney. Additional studies are needed to confirm whether TFF3 can be useful as a marker of increased risk for CKD. PMID:21829008

  8. [The monophasic pattern in oral glucose tolerance test as a predictive risk factor of type 2 diabetes in obese paediatric patients].

    PubMed

    Herrera-Martínez, Aura D; Enes, Patricia; Martín-Frías, María; Roldán, Belén; Yelmo, Rosa; Barrio, Raquel

    2017-10-01

    The onset of obesity at young ages is strongly associated with the early development of type 2diabetes (T2D). The shape of the curves of glucose and insulin curves during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) could predict the risk of developing T2D. To analyse the morphology of the OGTT and determine T2D risk factors in a mainly Caucasian population of children and adolescents. Observational retrospective study including 588 patients (309 males, 279 females) with a mean age of 11.1±2years, and of whom 90.3% were Caucasian. Risk factors for T2D were compared in patients with a monophasic or biphasic pattern during the performance of an OGTT, as well as anthropometric and biochemical variables, insulin resistance, and beta-cell function. The shape of the glucose curve was monophasic in 50.2% of patients (50.8% male), biphasic in 48.5% (47.6% males), and indeterminate in 1.3%. The monophasic pattern showed lower insulin-sensitivity and worse beta-cell function. Patients with a biphasic pattern had a higher BMI, waist circumference, and blood pressure, although the results were not significant. Latin-American patients had significantly lower serum glucose levels with higher insulin levels during the OGTT. The pattern of response to an OGTT reflects different metabolic phenotypes. Paediatric patients with a biphasic pattern have lower risk-profiling for T2D. The performing of an OGTT could be useful to implement early intervention strategies in children and adolescents with obesity, in order to prevent the development of pre-diabetes or T2D. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk factors of striae gravidarum.

    PubMed

    Kasielska-Trojan, A; Sobczak, M; Antoszewski, B

    2015-04-01

    Stretch marks are a common skin disorder. Pregnancy-related lesions are defined as striae gravidarum. The root cause of striae formation remains unknown. The aim of this paper was to identify the risk factors associated with striae gravidarum (SG) development. The study was conducted at Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgery Clinic and Obstetrics Outpatient Department among 299 Caucasian women maximum 6 months after the delivery, regardless of whether they were primiparas or multiparas. Among the women participating in the study, 71.2% (213 of 299) developed striae gravidarum at least in one site. Logistic regression analysis showed that four of the analysed factors were independent predictors of striae gravidarum occurrence: family history of SG, BMI before pregnancy, the lack of chronic diseases and birthweight (P < 0.0001). It has been found that the presence of striae distensae on the breasts increases the risk of SG development (71.4% vs. 28.6%, P = 0.0008), whereas the presence of these lesions on the thighs decreases the risk (23% vs. 77%, P = 0.0076). In this study, we presented a model that can help to predict the risk of SG formation, including family history of SG, BMI before pregnancy, birthweight and chronic diseases. Moreover, women with stretch marks on their breasts should know that the risk of SG development is significantly higher, whereas lesions on the thighs do not increase such a risk. © 2014 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

  10. Pediatric rhinitis risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Ji, Yaofeng; Liu, Yin; Yang, Na

    2016-01-01

    Rhinitis is a common global disorder that impacts on the quality of life of the sufferer and caregivers. Treatment for pediatric rhinitis is empirical and does not include a detailed history of the allergy triggers or allergy testing. Thus, allergen avoidance advice is not tailored to the child's sensitivities, which may result in adenoid hypertrophy. However, infant onset rhinitis, especially its relationship with respiratory viruses, remains to be further clarified. Rhinitis basically involves inflammation of the upper nasal lining, presenting typically with symptoms of runny nose (rhinorrhea), nasal blockage, and/or sneezing. While not typically fatal, it does impose significant health, psychological, and monetary burden to its sufferers, and is thus considered a global health problem. Previous findings showed that immunotherapy had significant clinical efficacy in children with allergic rhinitis. The present review article aims to highlight recent perspectives pertaining to the rhinitis risk factors especially in pediatric patients. PMID:27698737

  11. Looking for biological factors to predict the risk of active cytomegalovirus infection in non-immunosuppressed critically ill patients.

    PubMed

    Bravo, Dayana; Clari, María A; Aguilar, Gerardo; Belda, Javier; Giménez, Estela; Carbonell, José A; Henao, Liliana; Navarro, David

    2014-05-01

    The identification of non-immunosuppressed critically ill patients most at risk for developing cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation is potentially of great clinical relevance. The current study was aimed at determining (i) whether single nucleotide polymorphisms in the genes coding for chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), interleukin-10 IL-10), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) have an impact on the incidence rate of active CMV infection, (ii) whether serum levels of CMV-specific IgGs are associated with the risk of CMV reactivation, and (iii) whether detection of CMV DNA in saliva precedes that in the lower respiratory tract or the blood compartment. A total of 36 out of 78 patients (46%) developed an episode of active CMV infection. The incidence rate of active CMV infection was not significantly associated with any single nucleotide polymorphisms. A trend towards a lower incidence of active CMV infection (P = 0.06) was noted in patients harboring the IL10 C/C genotype. Patients carrying the CCR5 A/A genotype had high CMV DNA loads in tracheal aspirates. The serum levels of CMV IgGs did not differ significantly between patients with a subsequent episode of active CMV infection (median, 217 IU/mL) or without one (median, 494 IU/mL). Detection of CMV DNA in saliva did not usually precede that in plasma and/or tracheal aspirates. In summary, the analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the IL10 and CCR5 genes might help to determine the risk of active CMV infection or the level of CMV replication within episodes, respectively, in non-immunosuppressed critically ill patients. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Risk factors in school shootings.

    PubMed

    Verlinden, S; Hersen, M; Thomas, J

    2000-01-01

    Nine incidents of multiple-victim homicide in American secondary schools are examined and common risk factors are identified. The literature dealing with individual, family, social, societal, and situational risk factors for youth violence and aggression is reviewed along with existing risk assessment methods. Checklists of risk factors for serious youth violence and school violence are used in reviewing each school shooting case. Commonalties among the cases and implications for psychologists practicing in clinical and school settings are discussed.

  13. School outcomes of aggressive-disruptive children: prediction from kindergarten risk factors and impact of the fast track prevention program.

    PubMed

    Bierman, Karen L; Coie, John; Dodge, Kenneth; Greenberg, Mark; Lochman, John; McMohan, Robert; Pinderhughes, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    A multi-gate screening process identified 891 children with aggressive-disruptive behavior problems at school entry. Fast Track provided a multi-component preventive intervention in the context of a randomized-controlled design. In addition to psychosocial support and skill training for parents and children, the intervention included intensive reading tutoring in first grade, behavioral management consultation with teachers, and the provision of homework support (as needed) through tenth grade. This study examined the impact of the intervention, as well as the impact of the child's initial aggressive-disruptive behaviors and associated school readiness skills (cognitive ability, reading readiness, attention problems) on academic progress and educational placements during elementary school (Grades 1-4) and during the secondary school years (Grades 7-10), as well as high school graduation. Child behavior problems and skills at school entry predicted school difficulties (low grades, grade retention, placement in a self-contained classroom, behavior disorder classification, and failure to graduate). Disappointingly, intervention did not significantly improve these long-term school outcomes. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. School Outcomes of Aggressive-Disruptive Children: Prediction From Kindergarten Risk Factors and Impact of the Fast Track Prevention Program

    PubMed Central

    Bierman, Karen L.; Coie, John; Dodge, Kenneth; Greenberg, Mark; Lochman, John; McMohan, Robert; Pinderhughes, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    A multi-gate screening process identified 891 children with aggressive-disruptive behavior problems at school entry. Fast Track provided a multi-component preventive intervention in the context of a randomized-controlled design. In addition to psychosocial support and skill training for parents and children, the intervention included intensive reading tutoring in first grade, behavioral management consultation with teachers, and the provision of homework support (as needed) through tenth grade. This study examined the impact of the intervention, as well as the impact of the child's initial aggressive-disruptive behaviors and associated school readiness skills (cognitive ability, reading readiness, attention problems) on academic progress and educational placements during elementary school (Grades 1–4) and during the secondary school years (Grades 7–10), as well as high school graduation. Child behavior problems and skills at school entry predicted school difficulties (low grades, grade retention, placement in a self-contained classroom, behavior disorder classification, and failure to graduate). Disappointingly, intervention did not significantly improve these long-term school outcomes. PMID:23386568

  15. Classical risk factors, but not HPV status, predict survival after chemoradiotherapy in advanced head and neck cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Descamps, Géraldine; Karaca, Yasemin; Lechien, Jérôme R; Kindt, Nadège; Decaestecker, Christine; Remmelink, Myriam; Larsimont, Denis; Andry, Guy; Hassid, Samantha; Rodriguez, Alexandra; Khalife, Mohammad; Journe, Fabrice; Saussez, Sven

    2016-10-01

    Despite the advent of concomitant chemoradiotherapy (CCRT), the prognosis of advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients remains particularly poor. Classically, HNSCC, especially oropharyngeal carcinomas, associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) exhibits better treatment outcomes than HNSCCs in non-infected patients, eliciting a call for the de-escalation of current therapies. To improve the management of HNSCC patients, we aimed to determine the impact of active HPV infection on patient response, recurrence and survival after CCRT in a population of heavy tobacco and alcohol consumers. Paraffin-embedded samples from 218 advanced HNSCC patients, mostly smokers and/or drinkers treated by CCRT, were tested for the presence of HPV DNA by surrogate type-specific E6/E7 qPCR and p16 immunohistochemistry. Associations between the response to CCRT and patient outcomes according to HPV status and clinical data were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and both univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Type-specific E6/E7 PCR demonstrated HPV positivity in 20 % of HNSCC. Regarding HPV status, we did not find any significant relation with response to therapy in terms of progression-free survival or overall survival. However, we observed a significantly worse prognosis for consumers of alcohol and tobacco compared to nondrinkers (p = 0.003) and non-smokers (p = 0.03). Survival analyses also revealed that the outcome is compromised in stage IV patients (p = 0.007) and, in particular, for oral cavity, hypopharynx and oropharynx carcinoma patients (p = 0.001). The risk of death from HNSCC significantly increases when patients are exposed to tobacco and alcohol during their therapy, regardless of HPV status.

  16. A Meta-analysis of Outcomes Using Acellular Dermal Matrix in Breast and Abdominal Wall Reconstructions: Event Rates and Risk Factors Predictive of Complications.

    PubMed

    Adetayo, Oluwaseun A; Salcedo, Samuel E; Bahjri, Khaled; Gupta, Subhas C

    2016-08-01

    source of information during informed consent discussions as well as an awareness of the risk factors predictive of complications.

  17. Patient Age, Ethnicity, Medical History, and Risk Factor Profile, but Not Drug Insurance Coverage, Predict Successful Attainment of Glycemic Targets

    PubMed Central

    Teoh, Hwee; Braga, Manoela F.B.; Casanova, Amparo; Drouin, Denis; Goodman, Shaun G.; Harris, Stewart B.; Langer, Anatoly; Tan, Mary K.; Ur, Ehud; Yan, Andrew T.; Zinman, Bernard; Leiter, Lawrence A.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To identify factors in patients with type 2 diabetes and A1C >7.0% associated with attainment of A1C ≤7.0%. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used a prospective registry of 5,280 Canadian patients in primary care settings enrolled in a 12-month glycemic pharmacotherapy optimization strategy based on national guidelines. RESULTS At close out, median A1C was 7.1% (vs. 7.8% at baseline) with 48% of subjects achieving A1C ≤7.0% (P < 0.0001). Older patients of Asian or black origin, those with longer diabetes duration, those with lower baseline A1C, BMI, LDL cholesterol, and blood pressure, and those on angiotensin receptor blockers and a lower number of antihyperglycemic agents, were more likely to achieve A1C ≤7.0% at some point during the study (all P < 0.0235). Access to private versus public drug coverage did not impact glycemic target realization. CONCLUSIONS Patient demography, cardiometabolic health, and ongoing pharmacotherapy, but not access to private drug insurance coverage, contribute to the care gap in type 2 diabetes. PMID:20823344

  18. Sudden cardiac death: epidemiology and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Adabag, A. Selcuk; Luepker, Russell V.; Roger, Véronique L.; Gersh, Bernard J.

    2016-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an important public-health problem with multiple etiologies, risk factors, and changing temporal trends. Substantial progress has been made over the past few decades in identifying markers that confer increased SCD risk at the population level. However, the quest for predicting the high-risk individual who could be a candidate for an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or other therapy, continues. In this article, we review the incidence, temporal trends, and triggers of SCD, and its demographic, clinical, and genetic risk factors. We also discuss the available evidence supporting the use of public-access defibrillators. PMID:20142817

  19. Pitfalls in Prediction Modeling for Normal Tissue Toxicity in Radiation Therapy: An Illustration With the Individual Radiation Sensitivity and Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation Cohorts.

    PubMed

    Mbah, Chamberlain; Thierens, Hubert; Thas, Olivier; De Neve, Jan; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Seibold, Petra; Botma, Akke; West, Catharine; De Ruyck, Kim

    2016-08-01

    To identify the main causes underlying the failure of prediction models for radiation therapy toxicity to replicate. Data were used from two German cohorts, Individual Radiation Sensitivity (ISE) (n=418) and Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation (MARIE) (n=409), of breast cancer patients with similar characteristics and radiation therapy treatments. The toxicity endpoint chosen was telangiectasia. The LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) logistic regression method was used to build a predictive model for a dichotomized endpoint (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer score 0, 1, or ≥2). Internal areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (inAUCs) were calculated by a naïve approach whereby the training data (ISE) were also used for calculating the AUC. Cross-validation was also applied to calculate the AUC within the same cohort, a second type of inAUC. Internal AUCs from cross-validation were calculated within ISE and MARIE separately. Models trained on one dataset (ISE) were applied to a test dataset (MARIE) and AUCs calculated (exAUCs). Internal AUCs from the naïve approach were generally larger than inAUCs from cross-validation owing to overfitting the training data. Internal AUCs from cross-validation were also generally larger than the exAUCs, reflecting heterogeneity in the predictors between cohorts. The best models with largest inAUCs from cross-validation within both cohorts had a number of common predictors: hypertension, normalized total boost, and presence of estrogen receptors. Surprisingly, the effect (coefficient in the prediction model) of hypertension on telangiectasia incidence was positive in ISE and negative in MARIE. Other predictors were also not common between the 2 cohorts, illustrating that overcoming overfitting does not solve the problem of replication failure of prediction models completely. Overfitting and cohort heterogeneity are the 2

  20. Psychological Factors, Including Alexithymia, in the Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in HIV Infected Patients: Results of a Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Sozio, Federica; Mazzott, Elena; Ursini, Tamara; Polill, Ennio; Di Stefano, Paola; Tontodonati, Monica; Verrocchio, Maria C.; Fulcheri, Mario; Calella, Giulio; Santilli, Francesca; Manzoli, Lamberto

    2013-01-01

    Background Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients. Methodology/Principal Findings HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure) and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm) were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D) by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5%) attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6%) attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4%) had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5%) had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0%) died due to such events (n = 4) or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression) and CPs (logistic regression). At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox’s regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001), current smoking (p = 0.019) and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013) were independently associated with vascular events. Conclusions/Significance In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT

  1. Psychological factors, including alexithymia, in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in HIV infected patients: results of a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Parruti, Giustino; Vadini, Francesco; Sozio, Federica; Mazzott, Elena; Ursini, Tamara; Polill, Ennio; Di Stefano, Paola; Tontodonati, Monica; Verrocchio, Maria C; Fulcheri, Mario; Calella, Giulio; Santilli, Francesca; Manzoli, Lamberto

    2013-01-01

    Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients. HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure) and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm) were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D) by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5%) attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6%) attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4%) had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5%) had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0%) died due to such events (n = 4) or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression) and CPs (logistic regression). At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox's regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001), current smoking (p = 0.019) and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013) were independently associated with vascular events. In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT, presence of CPs and vascular events. Such results are preliminary and require confirmation

  2. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study.

    PubMed

    O'Neil, C E; Nicklas, T A; Liu, Y; Berenson, G S

    2015-02-01

    There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. A longitudinal sample of children 10 years (n = 355; 61% females; 71% European-Americans, 29% African-Americans) who participated in cross-sectional surveys from 1973 to 1984 (baseline) and in one of two surveys (follow-ups) as young adults [19-38 years; mean (SD) = 23.6 (2.6) years] in Bogalusa, LA, were studied. Dietary data were collected using 24-h dietary recalls at baseline and at one follow-up survey; a food frequency questionnaire was used in the other follow-up survey. Candy consumers were those consuming any amount of candy. Candy consumption was calculated (g day(-1) ) from baseline 24-h dietary recalls, and was used as a covariate in the adjusted linear mixed models. Dependent variables included body mass index (BMI) and CVRF measured in young adults. At baseline, 92% of children reported consuming candy [46 (45) g day(-1)]; the percentage decreased to 67% [20 (30) g day(-1)] at follow-up. No longitudinal relationship was shown between baseline candy consumption and BMI or CVRF in young adults, suggesting that candy consumption was not predictive of health risks later in life. The consumption of nutrient rich foods consistent with dietary recommendations is important, although modest amounts of candy can be added to the diet without potential adverse long-term consequences to weight or CVRF. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  3. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    O’Neil, C. E.; Nicklas, T. A.; Liu, Y.; Berenson, G. S.

    2015-01-01

    Background There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. Methods A longitudinal sample of children 10 years (n = 355; 61% females; 71% European Americans, 29% African Americans) who partici pated in cross sectional surveys from 1973 to 1984 (baseline) and in one of two surveys (follow ups) as young adults [19–38] years; mean (SD) = 23.6 (2.6) years] in Bogalusa, LA, were studied. Dietary data were collected using 24 h dietary recalls at baseline and at one follow up survey; a food frequency questionnaire was used in the other follow up survey. Candy consumers were those consuming any amount of candy. Candy con sumption was calculated (g day−1) from baseline 24 h dietary recalls, and was used as a covariate in the adjusted linear mixed models. Dependent variables included body mass index (BMI) and CVRF measured in young adults. Results At baseline, 92% of children reported consuming candy [46 (45) g day−1]; the percentage decreased to 67% [20 (30) g day−1] at fol low up. No longitudinal relationship was shown between baseline candy consumption and BMI or CVRF in young adults, suggesting that candy consumption was not predictive of health risks later in life. Conclusions The consumption of nutrient rich foods consistent with die tary recommendations is important, although modest amounts of candy can be added to the diet without potential adverse long term consequences to weight or CVRF. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results. PMID:24382141

  4. Factors Predicting Risk for Antibody-mediated Rejection and Graft Loss in Highly Human Leukocyte Antigen Sensitized Patients Transplanted After Desensitization.

    PubMed

    Vo, Ashley A; Sinha, Aditi; Haas, Mark; Choi, Jua; Mirocha, James; Kahwaji, Joseph; Peng, Alice; Villicana, Rafael; Jordan, Stanley C

    2015-07-01

    Desensitization with intravenous immunoglobulin and rituximab (I+R) significantly improves transplant rates in highly sensitized patients, but antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) remains a concern. Between July 2006 and December 2012, 226 highly sensitized patients received transplants after desensitization. Most received alemtuzumab induction and standard immunosuppression. Two groups were examined: ABMR (n = 181) and ABMR (n = 45, 20%). Risk factors for ABMR, pathology, and outcomes were assessed. Significant risks for ABMR included previous transplants and pregnancies as sensitizing events, donor-specific antibody (DSA) relative intensity scores greater than 17, presence of both class I and II DSAs at transplant and time on waitlist. The ABMR showed a significant benefit for graft survival and glomerular filtration rate at 5 years (P < 0.0001). Banff pathology characteristics for ABMR patients with or without graft loss did not differ. C4d versus C4d ABMR did not predict graft loss (P = 0.086). Thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) significantly predicted graft failure (P = 0.045). The ABMR episodes were treated with I+R (n = 25), or, in more severe ABMR, plasma exchange (PLEX)+I+R (n = 20). Graft survival for patients treated with I+R was superior (P = 0.028). Increased mortality was seen in ABMR patients experiencing graft loss after ABMR treatment (P = 0.004). The PLEX + Eculizumab improved graft survival for TMA patients (P = 0.036). Patients desensitized with I+R who remain ABMR have long-term graft and patient survival. The ABMR patients have significantly reduced graft survival and glomerular filtration rate at 5 years, especially TMA. Severe ABMR episodes benefit from treatment with PLEX + Eculizumab. The DSA-relative intensity scores at transplant was a strong predictor of ABMR. Donor-specific antibody avoidance and reduction strategies before transplantation are critical to avoiding ABMR and improving long-term outcomes.

  5. Excess pressure integral predicts cardiovascular events independent of other risk factors in the conduit artery functional evaluation substudy of Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial.

    PubMed

    Davies, Justin E; Lacy, Peter; Tillin, Therese; Collier, David; Cruickshank, J Kennedy; Francis, Darrel P; Malaweera, Anura; Mayet, Jamil; Stanton, Alice; Williams, Bryan; Parker, Kim H; McG Thom, Simon A; Hughes, Alun D

    2014-07-01

    Excess pressure integral (XSPI), a new index of surplus work performed by the left ventricle, can be calculated from blood pressure waveforms and may indicate circulatory dysfunction. We investigated whether XSPI predicted future cardiovascular events and target organ damage in treated hypertensive individuals. Radial blood pressure waveforms were acquired by tonometry in 2069 individuals (aged, 63±8 years) in the Conduit Artery Functional Evaluation (CAFE) substudy of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT). Measurements of left ventricular mass index (n=862) and common carotid artery intima media thickness (n=923) were also performed. XSPI and the integral of reservoir pressure were lower in people treated with amlodipine±perindopril than in those treated with atenolol±bendroflumethiazide, although brachial systolic blood pressure was similar. A total of 134 cardiovascular events accrued during a median 3.4 years of follow-up; XSPI was a significant predictor of cardiovascular events after adjustment for age and sex, and this relationship was unaffected by adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors or Framingham risk score. XSPI, central systolic blood pressure, central augmentation pressure, central pulse pressure, and integral of reservoir pressure were correlated with left ventricular mass index, but only XSPI, augmentation pressure, and central pulse pressure were associated positively with carotid artery intima media thickness. Associations between left ventricular mass index, XSPI, and integral of reservoir pressure and carotid artery intima media thickness and XSPI were unaffected by multivariable adjustment for other covariates. XSPI is a novel indicator of cardiovascular dysfunction and independently predicts cardiovascular events and targets organ damage in a prospective clinical trial.

  6. Prediction of Small for Gestational Age Infants in Healthy Nulliparous Women Using Clinical and Ultrasound Risk Factors Combined with Early Pregnancy Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    McCowan, Lesley M. E.; Thompson, John M. D.; Taylor, Rennae S.; Baker, Philip N.; North, Robyn A.; Poston, Lucilla; Roberts, Claire T.; Simpson, Nigel A. B.; Walker, James J.; Myers, Jenny; Kenny, Louise C.

    2017-01-01

    Objective Most small for gestational age pregnancies are unrecognised before birth, resulting in substantial avoidable perinatal mortality and morbidity. Our objective was to develop multivariable prediction models for small for gestational age combining clinical risk factors and biomarkers at 15±1 weeks’ with ultrasound parameters at 20±1 weeks’ gestation. Methods Data from 5606 participants in the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) cohort study were divided into Training (n = 3735) and Validation datasets (n = 1871). The primary outcomes were All-SGA (small for gestational age with birthweight <10th customised centile), Normotensive-SGA (small for gestational age with a normotensive mother) and Hypertensive-SGA (small for gestational age with an hypertensive mother). The comparison group comprised women without the respective small for gestational age phenotype. Multivariable analysis was performed using stepwise logistic regression beginning with clinical variables, and subsequent additions of biomarker and then ultrasound (biometry and Doppler) variables. Model performance was assessed in Training and Validation datasets by calculating area under the curve. Results 633 (11.2%) infants were All-SGA, 465(8.2%) Normotensive-SGA and 168 (3%) Hypertensive-SGA. Area under the curve (95% Confidence Intervals) for All-SGA using 15±1 weeks’ clinical variables, 15±1 weeks’ clinical+ biomarker variables and clinical + biomarkers + biometry /Doppler at 20±1 weeks’ were: 0.63 (0.59–0.67), 0.64 (0.60–0.68) and 0.69 (0.66–0.73) respectively in the Validation dataset; Normotensive-SGA results were similar: 0.61 (0.57–0.66), 0.61 (0.56–0.66) and 0.68 (0.64–0.73) with small increases in performance in the Training datasets. Area under the curve (95% Confidence Intervals) for Hypertensive-SGA were: 0.76 (0.70–0.82), 0.80 (0.75–0.86) and 0.84 (0.78–0.89) with minimal change in the Training datasets. Conclusion Models for prediction of small

  7. Prediction of Small for Gestational Age Infants in Healthy Nulliparous Women Using Clinical and Ultrasound Risk Factors Combined with Early Pregnancy Biomarkers.

    PubMed

    McCowan, Lesley M E; Thompson, John M D; Taylor, Rennae S; Baker, Philip N; North, Robyn A; Poston, Lucilla; Roberts, Claire T; Simpson, Nigel A B; Walker, James J; Myers, Jenny; Kenny, Louise C

    2017-01-01

    Most small for gestational age pregnancies are unrecognised before birth, resulting in substantial avoidable perinatal mortality and morbidity. Our objective was to develop multivariable prediction models for small for gestational age combining clinical risk factors and biomarkers at 15±1 weeks' with ultrasound parameters at 20±1 weeks' gestation. Data from 5606 participants in the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) cohort study were divided into Training (n = 3735) and Validation datasets (n = 1871). The primary outcomes were All-SGA (small for gestational age with birthweight <10th customised centile), Normotensive-SGA (small for gestational age with a normotensive mother) and Hypertensive-SGA (small for gestational age with an hypertensive mother). The comparison group comprised women without the respective small for gestational age phenotype. Multivariable analysis was performed using stepwise logistic regression beginning with clinical variables, and subsequent additions of biomarker and then ultrasound (biometry and Doppler) variables. Model performance was assessed in Training and Validation datasets by calculating area under the curve. 633 (11.2%) infants were All-SGA, 465(8.2%) Normotensive-SGA and 168 (3%) Hypertensive-SGA. Area under the curve (95% Confidence Intervals) for All-SGA using 15±1 weeks' clinical variables, 15±1 weeks' clinical+ biomarker variables and clinical + biomarkers + biometry /Doppler at 20±1 weeks' were: 0.63 (0.59-0.67), 0.64 (0.60-0.68) and 0.69 (0.66-0.73) respectively in the Validation dataset; Normotensive-SGA results were similar: 0.61 (0.57-0.66), 0.61 (0.56-0.66) and 0.68 (0.64-0.73) with small increases in performance in the Training datasets. Area under the curve (95% Confidence Intervals) for Hypertensive-SGA were: 0.76 (0.70-0.82), 0.80 (0.75-0.86) and 0.84 (0.78-0.89) with minimal change in the Training datasets. Models for prediction of small for gestational age, which combine biomarkers, clinical and

  8. Clinical pretreatment risk factors and prediction of outcome using gallium 67 scintigraphy in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    ESCOBAR, IGNACIO GARCÍA; LÓPEZ, ANA; RUBIO, JUDIT; PÉREZ-CALLEJO, DAVID; BARRIGÓN, DOLORES CABALLERO; ALONSO, PILAR TAMAYO; CASADO, ELENA ALMAGRO; PULLA, MARIANO PROVENCIO

    2016-01-01

    .04), Hassenclever index (1–3 vs. 4–6, 86 vs. 61%, respectively; P=0.04) and gallium scan results at mid-treatment and at the end of treatment (negative vs. positive, 98 vs. 40%, P<0.001; and 97 vs. 23%, P<0.001, respectively) significantly affected the OS. On the multivariate analysis, gallium scan at the end of first-line treatment retained statistical significance in terms of EFS and OS. In conclusion, post-chemotherapy gallium scan is an important prognostic factor in patients with early- or advanced-stage HL and a predictor of adverse outcome. PMID:26870365

  9. Risk Factor Modification and Projections of Absolute Breast Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Decarli, Adriano; Schairer, Catherine; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Pee, David; Masala, Giovanna; Palli, Domenico

    2011-01-01

    Background Although modifiable risk factors have been included in previous models that estimate or project breast cancer risk, there remains a need to estimate the effects of changes in modifiable risk factors on the absolute risk of breast cancer. Methods Using data from a case–control study of women in Italy (2569 case patients and 2588 control subjects studied from June 1, 1991, to April 1, 1994) and incidence and mortality data from the Florence Registries, we developed a model to predict the absolute risk of breast cancer that included five non-modifiable risk factors (reproductive characteristics, education, occupational activity, family history, and biopsy history) and three modifiable risk factors (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, and body mass index). The model was validated using independent data, and the percent risk reduction was calculated in high-risk subgroups identified by use of the Lorenz curve. Results The model was reasonably well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cancers = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.96 to 1.26), but the discriminatory accuracy was modest. The absolute risk reduction from exposure modifications was nearly proportional to the risk before modifying the risk factors and increased with age and risk projection time span. Mean 20-year reductions in absolute risk among women aged 65 years were 1.6% (95% CI = 0.9% to 2.3%) in the entire population, 3.2% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.8%) among women with a positive family history of breast cancer, and 4.1% (95% CI = 2.5% to 6.8%) among women who accounted for the highest 10% of the total population risk, as determined from the Lorenz curve. Conclusions These data give perspective on the potential reductions in absolute breast cancer risk from preventative strategies based on lifestyle changes. Our methods are also useful for calculating sample sizes required for trials to test lifestyle interventions. PMID:21705679

  10. Risk factor modification and projections of absolute breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Petracci, Elisabetta; Decarli, Adriano; Schairer, Catherine; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Pee, David; Masala, Giovanna; Palli, Domenico; Gail, Mitchell H

    2011-07-06

    Although modifiable risk factors have been included in previous models that estimate or project breast cancer risk, there remains a need to estimate the effects of changes in modifiable risk factors on the absolute risk of breast cancer. Using data from a case-control study of women in Italy (2569 case patients and 2588 control subjects studied from June 1, 1991, to April 1, 1994) and incidence and mortality data from the Florence Registries, we developed a model to predict the absolute risk of breast cancer that included five non-modifiable risk factors (reproductive characteristics, education, occupational activity, family history, and biopsy history) and three modifiable risk factors (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, and body mass index). The model was validated using independent data, and the percent risk reduction was calculated in high-risk subgroups identified by use of the Lorenz curve. The model was reasonably well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cancers = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.96 to 1.26), but the discriminatory accuracy was modest. The absolute risk reduction from exposure modifications was nearly proportional to the risk before modifying the risk factors and increased with age and risk projection time span. Mean 20-year reductions in absolute risk among women aged 65 years were 1.6% (95% CI = 0.9% to 2.3%) in the entire population, 3.2% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.8%) among women with a positive family history of breast cancer, and 4.1% (95% CI = 2.5% to 6.8%) among women who accounted for the highest 10% of the total population risk, as determined from the Lorenz curve. These data give perspective on the potential reductions in absolute breast cancer risk from preventative strategies based on lifestyle changes. Our methods are also useful for calculating sample sizes required for trials to test lifestyle interventions.

  11. The strength of the multivariable associations of major risk factors predicting coronary heart disease mortality is homogeneous across different areas of the Seven Countries Study during 50-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Menotti, Alessandro; Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Adachi, Hisashi; Kafatos, Anthony; Tolonen, Hanna; Kromhout, Daan

    2017-08-08

    To compare the magnitude of multivariable coefficients and hazard ratios of four cardiovascular risk factors across five worldwide regions of the Seven Countries Study in predicting 50-year coronary deaths. A total of 13 cohorts of middle-aged men at entry (40-59 years old) were enrolled in the mid-1900s from five relatively homogeneous groups of cohorts (areas): USA, Finland and Zutphen - the Netherlands, Italy and Greece, Serbia, Japan for a total of 10,368 middle-aged men. The major risk factors measured at baseline were age, number of cigarettes smoked, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Cox proportional hazards models were solved for 50-year (45 years for Serbia) deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD), and the multivariable coefficients were compared for heterogeneity. The highest levels of risk factors and CHD death rates were found in Finland and Zutphen - the Netherlands and the lowest in Japan. All four risk factors were predictive for long-term CHD mortality in all regions, except serum cholesterol in Japan where the mean levels and CHD events were lowest. Tests of heterogeneity of coefficients for single risk factors in predicting CHD mortality were non-significant across the five areas. The same analyses for the first 25 years of follow-up produced similar findings. The strength of the multivariable associations of four major traditional CHD risk factors with long-term CHD mortality appears to be relatively homogeneous across areas, pending needed further evidence.

  12. Corticosteroid-induced osteoporosis in children: outcome after two-year follow-up, risk factors, densitometric predictive cut-off values for vertebral fractures.

    PubMed

    Reyes, M L; Hernández, M I; King, A; Vinet, A M; Vogel, A; Lagomarsino, E; Mericq, M V; Méndez, C; Gederlini, A; Talesnik, E

    2007-01-01

    To identify factors that contribute to a decreased Z score of volumetric spine bone mineral density (ZvSBMD) and the development of vertebral fractures (VF) in children receiving chronic systemic corticosteroid therapy (SCT); to describe their outcome after 2 years, and to define predictive threshold values for ZvSBMD for VF. Fifty-five children on SCT for >or= 6 months were prospectively followed for 2 years. In children with a ZvSBMD > -1.5, we prescribed preventive measures for osteoporosis and densitometry annually. In children with ZvSBMD predicting VF was determined by ROC curve and the probability of having a VF was modeled by multiple logistic regressions. Children who do not develop osteoporosis at first evaluation tend to maintain normal ZvSBMD after two years. Alendronate increased ZvSBM (median: at baseline: -2.69; 1 yr: -1.92; 2 years: -1.39, p < 0.001). The threshold value of ZvSBMD for predicting VF was -1.8. In this cohort, the risk of developing VF was significantly higher in children who were not ambulatory, growth retarded, treated with methotrexate for a longer time, had a family history of osteoporosis or were of non-aboriginal ancestry. Children on SCT, who do not develop osteoporosis, tend to maintain normal BMD. Children who were not ambulatory, on methotrexate or growth retarded have higher rates of VF.

  13. Risk factors for predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Li, Jie-Qiong; Tan, Lan; Wang, Hui-Fu; Tan, Meng-Shan; Tan, Lin; Xu, Wei; Zhao, Qing-Fei; Wang, Jun; Jiang, Teng; Yu, Jin-Tai

    2016-05-01

    We sought to identify the risk factors for predicting the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We searched 6 electronic databases for cohort studies published from January 1966 to March 2015. Eligible studies were required to be relevant to the subject and provide sufficient data for our needs. 60 cohort studies with 14,821 participants from 16 countries were included in the meta-analysis. The strongest positive associations between risk factors and the progression from MCI to AD were found for abnormal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), phosphorylated τ (p-τ) (relative risk (RR)=2.43, 95% CI=1.70 to 3.48), abnormal CSF τ/Aβ1-42 (RR=3.77, 95% CI=2.34 to 6.09), hippocampal atrophy (RR=2.59, 95% CI=1.95 to 3.44), medial temporal lobe atrophy (RR=2.11, 95% CI=1.70 to 2.63) and entorhinal atrophy (RR=2.03, 95% CI=1.57 to 2.62). Further positive associations were found for the presence of apolipoprotein E (APOE)ε4ε4 and at least 1 APOEε4 allele, CSF total-τ (t-τ), white matter hyperintensity volume, depression, diabetes, hypertension, older age, female gender, lower mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score and higher AD assessment scale cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) score. Negative associations were found for high body mass index (RR=0.85, 95% CI=0.76 to 0.96) and higher auditory verbal learning test delay score (RR=0.86, 95% CI=0.77 to 0.96). Patients with MCI with APOEε4, abnormal CSF τ level, hippocampal and medial temporal lobe atrophy, entorhinal atrophy, depression, diabetes, hypertension, older age, female gender, lower MMSE score and higher ADAS-cog score, had a high risk for the progression to AD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  15. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory.

  16. Noncoronary Measures Enhance the Predictive Value of Cardiac CT Above Traditional Risk Factors and CAC Score in the General Population.

    PubMed

    Mahabadi, Amir A; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Pundt, Noreen; Dykun, Iryna; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund; Kälsch, Hagen

    2016-10-01

    volume, and TAC from non-contrast-enhanced cardiac CT improves the prediction of incident hard cardiovascular events above CAC and established risk factors, indicating that quantification of these noncoronary measures may improve the prognostic value of this imaging technology. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Can the type of gallstones be predicted with known possible risk factors?: a comparison between mixed cholesterol and black pigment stones

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Pathogenesis of gallstones (GS) is multifactorial and multiple genetic and environmental factors have been identified in different populations for different types of GS with varying prevalence. However the role of the each aetiological factor on the formation of mixed cholesterol and black pigment GS has not being addressed adequately. Hence in this study we attempted to compare known possible risk factors for mixed cholesterol and black pigment GS among two groups of patients with two types of GS. Methods The study was done on a cohort of patients with symptomatic GS admitted to the Teaching Hospital Peradeniya, Sri Lanka over a period of 18 months. Clinical and epidemiological data and physical parameters of the patients were recorded and surgically removed GS were analyzed chemically and physically to identify the type of GS. In addition lipid profile was done in all the patients with normal serum bilirubin levels. Results A total of 86 patients were included in the study. Mixed cholesterol GS was significantly common among females than males (χ2 test, p = 0.029). Mixed cholesterol GS was commonly seen among patients belonging to Moor ethnicity (χ2 test, p = 0.009). Majority of patients with mixed cholesterol GS had body mass index above 25 kg/m2 (χ2 test, p = 0.018). Black pigment GS were significantly common among patients with type II diabetes mellitus (Fisher’s exact test, p = 0.035). Further all the patients with chronic haemolytic anaemia and alcoholic cirrhosis had black pigment GS. Age, family history, Fasting Blood Glucose, dyslipidaemia, lipid profile, parity and use of oral contraceptive pills in females, smoking and alcohol intake in males did not differ significantly among patients in the two groups. Conclusion Gender, ethnicity and body mass index can be used to predict the formation of mixed cholesterol GS and black pigment GS. PMID:24884475

  18. Risk factors for surgical infections.

    PubMed

    Dominioni, Lorenzo; Imperatori, Andrea; Rotolo, Nicola; Rovera, Francesca

    2006-01-01

    Many risk factors for postoperative infections have been identified that can be used individually or in combination as scoring indices. Infection risk scores can be applied in clinical practice to identify high-risk surgical patients, to indicate the need to implement risk-reduction strategies, and to stratify risk for comparison of outcome among different patient series. In the hierarchy of patient-related risk factors, serum albumin concentration and advanced age rank at the top of the list. Among the treatment-related factors, the quality of the surgical technique is a most important determinant, although most surgical site infections are attributable to patient-related risk factors rather than to flawed surgical care. Scoring systems can identify the patients at highest risk, thus prompting the implementation of therapy to improve modifiable conditions, but most clinicians outside the academic and research setting do not use them. Risk assessment also can be performed by expert clinical judgment. Discussion with the patient and informed consent are essential. Carefully collected scores of patient risk factors may be valuable to document the relations between the risk and the outcome of surgery. Ideally, each institution should select a validated scoring system to audit postoperative infectious morbidity and surgical performance in the various specialties.

  19. Independent effects of age-related changes in waist circumference and BMI z scores in predicting cardiovascular disease risk factors in a prospective cohort of adolescent females

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. OBJECTIVE: We ...

  20. Stroke - risk factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... a higher risk. Diseases such as cancer, chronic kidney disease, and some types of arthritis. Weak areas in an artery wall or abnormal arteries and veins . Pregnancy. Both during and in the weeks right after ...

  1. Landslide forecasting and factors influencing predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Gigli, Giovanni

    2016-11-01

    Forecasting a catastrophic collapse is a key element in landslide risk reduction, but it is also a very difficult task owing to the scientific difficulties in predicting a complex natural event and also to the severe social repercussions caused by a false or missed alarm. A prediction is always affected by a certain error; however, when this error can imply evacuations or other severe consequences a high reliability in the forecast is, at least, desirable. In order to increase the confidence of predictions, a new methodology is presented here. In contrast to traditional approaches, this methodology iteratively applies several forecasting methods based on displacement data and, thanks to an innovative data representation, gives a valuation of the reliability of the prediction. This approach has been employed to back-analyse 15 landslide collapses. By introducing a predictability index, this study also contributes to the understanding of how geology and other factors influence the possibility of forecasting a slope failure. The results showed how kinematics, and all the factors influencing it, such as geomechanics, rainfall and other external agents, are key concerning landslide predictability.

  2. Risk and Protective Factors and Achievement of Children At Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krasner, Diane

    A study was done to identify social, economic, and childhood characteristics of high and low achieving children living in adverse environmental conditions, and to test the association between achievement and specific risk and protective factors. In addition, the study identified the most powerful model for predicting achievement by comparing…

  3. Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors: a case study of Ghana and Burundi.

    PubMed

    Barro, Alassane S; Oyana, Tonny J

    2012-12-01

    Although recent efforts taken have substantially contained human onchocerciasis in many African countries, published reports indicate a recrudescence of the disease. To understand this problem, biophysical factors that favor the establishment of human onchocerciasis in Ghana and Burundi-countries identified as threat locations of recrudescence for neighboring countries-were analyzed. Data pertaining to the prevalence of human onchocerciasis in both countries was obtained from published sources. Findings in this study suggest that there was a gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. The predictive models suggest that rainfall, humidity, and elevation were statistically significant for Burundi data while in Ghana, only the effect of elevation was highly significant (p<0.0001). In 2010, the estimated at-risk population was 4,817,280 people (19.75% of the total population) and 522,773 people (6.23% of the total population) in Ghana and Burundi, respectively. Findings can help in the effective design of preventive control measures.

  4. Risk factors for periodontal disease.

    PubMed

    Genco, Robert J; Borgnakke, Wenche S

    2013-06-01

    Risk factors play an important role in an individual's response to periodontal infection. Identification of these risk factors helps to target patients for prevention and treatment, with modification of risk factors critical to the control of periodontal disease. Shifts in our understanding of periodontal disease prevalence, and advances in scientific methodology and statistical analysis in the last few decades, have allowed identification of several major systemic risk factors for periodontal disease. The first change in our thinking was the understanding that periodontal disease is not universal, but that severe forms are found only in a portion of the adult population who show abnormal susceptibility. Analysis of risk factors and the ability to statistically adjust and stratify populations to eliminate the effects of confounding factors have allowed identification of independent risk factors. These independent but modifiable, risk factors for periodontal disease include lifestyle factors, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. They also include diseases and unhealthy conditions such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, metabolic syndrome, osteoporosis, and low dietary calcium and vitamin D. These risk factors are modifiable and their management is a major component of the contemporary care of many periodontal patients. Genetic factors also play a role in periodontal disease and allow one to target individuals for prevention and early detection. The role of genetic factors in aggressive periodontitis is clear. However, although genetic factors (i.e., specific genes) are strongly suspected to have an association with chronic adult periodontitis, there is as yet no clear evidence for this in the general population. It is important to pursue efforts to identify genetic factors associated with chronic periodontitis because such factors have potential in identifying patients who have a high susceptibility for development of this disease. Many of the systemic risk factors

  5. A Retrospective Comparative Study of Image-Guided Excisional Biopsy in High-Risk Non-Palpable Breast Lesions: Predictive Factors for Malignancy

    PubMed Central

    İflazoğlu, Nidal; Üreyen, Orhan; Atahan, Murat Kemal; Meral, Ulvi Mehmet; Sezgin, Gülten; Tarcan, Ercüment

    2015-01-01

    Objective The use of mammography (MM) in breast cancer screening programs has been increasing in recent years. Thus, increasing the number of detected nonpalpable breast cancer patients, through early diagnosis and treatment also increased survival rates. In our study, we wanted to share the factors about imaging-guided exicional biopsies for non-palpable breast lesions in postoperative proven breast carcinoma patients. Materials and Methods The surgical data were reviewed for 83 patients with non-palpabl high-risk breast lesions undergoing imaging-guided surgery in our department between January, 2006 and May, 2011. Histopathologic results and age, ultrasound(US) results, MM image results, BI-RADS categorization, localization of lesion(quadrant) were assessed and factors for predicting malignity were detected. Results Median age was 52 (age range 32–80 years). 29 (34,9%) of patients were malign in histopathologic results. In four patient, re-excision performed because of positive surgical margins. Axillary examination results were normal in 24 (82,7%) of malignant patients. In MM examination; microcalcifications and nodular opasity were diagnosed in 74,6% of patients before surgery. There were no differance about malignity in these groups after surgery (p:0,428). 59% and 32,7% of patients were BI-RADS 4 and 3, respectively. Postoperative diagnosed malignancies in BI-RADS 4 group were significantly higher than BI-RADS 3 group (p:<0,001). Conclusion In our study; we concluded that, preoperative BI-RADS categorization (US and MM) is correlated with histopathologic findings after surgery and imaging-guided breast surgery is effective for diagnosis of early-stage breast carcinoma.

  6. Developing a Comprehensive Model of Risk and Protective Factors That Can Predict Spelling at Age Seven: Findings from a Community Sample of Victorian Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Serry, Tanya Anne; Castles, Anne; Mensah, Fiona K.; Bavin, Edith L.; Eadie, Patricia; Pezic, Angela; Prior, Margot; Bretherton, Lesley; Reilly, Sheena

    2015-01-01

    The paper reports on a study designed to develop a risk model that can best predict single-word spelling in seven-year-old children when they were aged 4 and 5. Test measures, personal characteristics and environmental influences were all considered as variables from a community sample of 971 children. Strong concurrent correlations were found…

  7. Developing a Comprehensive Model of Risk and Protective Factors That Can Predict Spelling at Age Seven: Findings from a Community Sample of Victorian Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Serry, Tanya Anne; Castles, Anne; Mensah, Fiona K.; Bavin, Edith L.; Eadie, Patricia; Pezic, Angela; Prior, Margot; Bretherton, Lesley; Reilly, Sheena

    2015-01-01

    The paper reports on a study designed to develop a risk model that can best predict single-word spelling in seven-year-old children when they were aged 4 and 5. Test measures, personal characteristics and environmental influences were all considered as variables from a community sample of 971 children. Strong concurrent correlations were found…

  8. Environmental risk factors for autism

    PubMed Central

    Dietert, Rodney R.; Dietert, Janice M.; Dewitt, Jamie C.

    2010-01-01

    Autism is a devastating childhood condition that has emerged as an increasing social concern just as it has increased in prevalence in recent decades. Autism and the broader category of autism spectrum disorders are among the increasingly seen examples in which there is a fetal basis for later disease or disorder. Environmental, genetic, and epigenetic factors all play a role in determining the risk of autism and some of these effects appear to be transgenerational. Identification of the most critical windows of developmental vulnerability is paramount to understanding when and under what circumstances a child is at elevated risk for autism. No single environmental factor explains the increased prevalence of autism. While a handful of environmental risk factors have been suggested based on data from human studies and animal research, it is clear that many more, and perhaps the most significant risk factors, remain to be identified. The most promising risk factors identified to date fall within the categories of drugs, environmental chemicals, infectious agents, dietary factors, and other physical/psychological stressors. However, the rate at which environmental risk factors for autism have been identified via research and safety testing has not kept pace with the emerging health threat posed by this condition. For the way forward, it seems clear that additional focused research is needed. But more importantly, successful risk reduction strategies for autism will require more extensive and relevant developmental safety testing of drugs and chemicals. PMID:24149029

  9. [Preeclampsia as cardiovascular risk factor].

    PubMed

    Heida, Karst Y; Franx, Arie; Bots, Michiel L

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the primary cause of death in women. Guidelines for identifying high-risk individuals have been developed, e.g. the Dutch Guideline on Cardiovascular Risk Management. In the most recent version of this guideline, diabetes mellitus (DM) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are cited as cardiovascular risk factors; therefore, individuals with these conditions are identified as being at high risk. As with DM and RA, there is strong evidence that the experience of having a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy is a cardiovascular risk factor. This is particularly the case for early preeclampsia, which constitutes a 7-fold increased risk of ischemic heart disease. However, in the Netherlands, there are no guidelines and there is no consensus on how to screen or treat these women. Trial evidence is therefore urgently needed to substantiate the value of cardiovascular risk management for those women with a history of hypertension during pregnancy.

  10. Identification of predictive CT angiographic factors in the development of high-risk type 2 endoleaks after endovascular aneurysm repair in patients with infrarenal aortic aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Löwenthal, D; Herzog, L; Rogits, B; Bulla, K; Weston, S; Meyer, F; Halloul, Z; Pech, M; Ricke, J; Dudeck, O

    2015-01-01

    An extensive analysis of the value of computed tomography (CT) parameters as potential predictors of the clinical outcome of type 2 endoleaks after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). Initial CT scans of 130 patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) were retrospectively reviewed. On the basis of postoperative CT scans and angiographies, patients were stratified into a low-risk group (LRG; without or transient type 2 endoleak; n = 80) and a high-risk group (HRG, persistent type 2 endoleak or need for reintervention; n = 50). Statistical analysis comprised a univariate and multivariate analysis. Anatomical, thrombus-specific, as well as aortic side branch parameters were assessed on the initial CT scan. Of all anatomical parameters, the diameter of the immediate infrarenal aorta was significantly different in the univariate analysis (LRG 22.4 ± 3.8 mm; HRG 23.6 ± 2.5 mm; p = 0.03). The investigation of the thrombus-specific parameters showed a trend towards statistical significance for the relative thrombus load (LRG 31.7 ± 18.0%; HRG 25.3 ± 17.5%; p = 0.09). Assessment of aortic side branches revealed only for the univariate analysis significant differences in the patency of the inferior mesenteric artery (LRG 71.3%; HRG 92.0%; p = 0.003) and their diameter (LRG 3.3 ± 0.7 mm; HRG 3.8 ± 0.9 mm; p = 0.004). In contrast, the number of lumbar arteries (LAs; LRG 2.7 ± 1.4; HRG 3.6 ± 1.2; univariate: p = 0.01; multivariate: p = 0.006) as well as their diameter (LRG 2.1 ± 0.4 mm; HRG 2.4 ± 0.4 mm; univariate: p < 0.001; multivariate: p = 0.006) were highly significantly associated with the development of type 2 endoleaks of the HRG. The most important predictive factors for the development of high-risk type 2 endoleaks were mainly the number and the diameter of the LAs which perfused the AAA. • This study is a very detailed and comprehensive analysis of the

  11. Identifying High-Risk Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: A Pathogenesis-Oriented Appraisal of Prognostic and Predictive Factors in Patients Treated with Chemotherapy with or without Immunotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Martinelli, Sara; Cuneo, Antonio; Formigaro, Luca; Cavallari, Maurizio; Lista, Enrico; Quaglia, Francesca Maria; Ciccone, Maria; Bardi, Antonella; Volta, Eleonora; Tammiso, Elisa; Saccenti, Elena; Sofritti, Olga; Daghia, Giulia; Negrini, Massimo; Dabusti, Melissa; Tomasi, Paolo; Moretti, Sabrina; Cavazzini, Francesco; Rigolin, Gian Matteo

    2016-01-01

    Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) displays an extremely variable clinical behaviour. Accurate prognostication and prediction of response to treatment are important in an era of effective first-line regimens and novel molecules for high risk patients. Because a plethora of prognostic biomarkers were identified, but few of them were validated by multivariable analysis in comprehensive prospective studies, we applied in this survey stringent criteria to select papers from the literature in order to identify the most reproducible prognostic/predictive markers. Each biomarker was analysed in terms of reproducibility across the different studies with respect to its impact on time to first treatment (TTFT), progression free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and response to treatment. We were able to identify the following biomarkers as the most reliable in guiding risk stratification in the daily clinical practice: 17p-/TP53 mutations, IGHV unmutated configuration, short telomeres and 11q-. However, the method for measuring telomere length was not validated yet and 11q- was predictive of inferior OS only in those patients who did not receive FCR-like combinations. Stage and lymphocytosis were predictive of shorter TTFT and age, high serum thymidine kinase levels and poor performance status were predictive of shorter OS. Using our criteria no parameter was found to independently predict for inferior response to treatment. PMID:27872727

  12. How well can post-traumatic stress disorder be predicted from pre-trauma risk factors? An exploratory study in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Kessler, Ronald C; Rose, Sherri; Koenen, Karestan C; Karam, Elie G; Stang, Paul E; Stein, Dan J; Heeringa, Steven G; Hill, Eric D; Liberzon, Israel; McLaughlin, Katie A; McLean, Samuel A; Pennell, Beth E; Petukhova, Maria; Rosellini, Anthony J; Ruscio, Ayelet M; Shahly, Victoria; Shalev, Arieh Y; Silove, Derrick; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Bromet, Evelyn J; de Almeida, José Miguel Caldas; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Jonge, Peter; Demyttenaere, Koen; Florescu, Silvia E; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Murphy, Samuel D; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Piazza, Marina; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate; Torres, Yolanda; Carmen Viana, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) should be one of the most preventable mental disorders, since many people exposed to traumatic experiences (TEs) could be targeted in first response settings in the immediate aftermath of exposure for preventive intervention. However, these interventions are costly and the proportion of TE-exposed people who develop PTSD is small. To be cost-effective, risk prediction rules are needed to target high-risk people in the immediate aftermath of a TE. Although a number of studies have been carried out to examine prospective predictors of PTSD among people recently exposed to TEs, most were either small or focused on a narrow sample, making it unclear how well PTSD can be predicted in the total population of people exposed to TEs. The current report investigates this issue in a large sample based on the World Health Organization (WHO)'s World Mental Health Surveys. Retrospective reports were obtained on the predictors of PTSD associated with 47,466 TE exposures in representative community surveys carried out in 24 countries. Machine learning methods (random forests, penalized regression, super learner) were used to develop a model predicting PTSD from information about TE type, socio-demographics, and prior histories of cumulative TE exposure and DSM-IV disorders. DSM-IV PTSD prevalence was 4.0% across the 47,466 TE exposures. 95.6% of these PTSD cases were associated with the 10.0% of exposures (i.e., 4,747) classified by machine learning algorithm as having highest predicted PTSD risk. The 47,466 exposures were divided into 20 ventiles (20 groups of equal size) ranked by predicted PTSD risk. PTSD occurred after 56.3% of the TEs in the highest-risk ventile, 20.0% of the TEs in the second highest ventile, and 0.0-1.3% of the TEs in the 18 remaining ventiles. These patterns of differential risk were quite stable across demographic-geographic sub-samples. These results demonstrate that a sensitive risk algorithm can be created using

  13. Cardiovascular risk factor investigation: a pediatric issue

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Anabel N; Abreu, Glaucia R; Resende, Rogério S; Goncalves, Washington LS; Gouvea, Sonia Alves

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To correlate cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperglycemia, sedentariness) in childhood and adolescence with the occurrence of cardiovascular disease. Sources A systematic review of books and selected articles from PubMed, SciELO and Cochrane from 1992 to 2012. Summary of findings Risk factors for atherosclerosis are present in childhood, although cardiovascular disease arises during adulthood. This article presents the main studies that describe the importance of investigating the risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in childhood and their associations. Significant rates of hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and sedentariness occur in children and adolescents. Blood pressure needs to be measured in childhood. An increase in arterial blood pressure in young people predicts hypertension in adulthood. The death rate from cardiovascular disease is lowest in children with lower cholesterol levels and in individuals who exercise regularly. In addition, there is a high prevalence of sedentariness in children and adolescents. Conclusions Studies involving the analysis of cardiovascular risk factors should always report the prevalence of these factors and their correlations during childhood because these factors are indispensable for identifying an at-risk population. The identification of risk factors in asymptomatic children could contribute to a decrease in cardiovascular disease, preventing such diseases as hypertension, obesity, and dyslipidemia from becoming the epidemics of this century. PMID:23515212

  14. Hidden Risk Factors for Women

    MedlinePlus

    ... previous history of clots in the legs (deep vein thrombosis) and livedo reticularis, a mottled purplish discoloration of the skin. “Risk factors are cumulative,” Dr. Kittner adds. “Reducing even one ...

  15. What Are the Risk Factors?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cancer Home What Are the Risk Factors for Lung Cancer? Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on ... those who smoke. Personal or Family History of Lung Cancer If you are a lung cancer survivor, there ...

  16. Cardiac risk factors: environmental, sociodemographic, and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors.

    PubMed

    Anthony, David; George, Paul; Eaton, Charles B

    2014-06-01

    Several environmental exposures are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Exposure to secondhand smoke may increase the risk by as much as 25% to 30%. Exposure to third hand smoke, residual components of tobacco smoke that remain in the environment after a cigarette is extinguished, also appears to increase risk. These residual components can remain in rooms and automobiles for up to 30 years and enter the body through the skin or via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure to particulate matter air pollution from automobile emissions, power plants, and other sources is yet another environmental risk factor for CHD, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths annually in the United States. Exposure to other environmental toxins, particularly bisphenol A and phthalates, also has been linked to CHD. There are sociodemographic risks for CHD, with numerous studies showing that lower socioeconomic status is associated with higher risk. Behavioral risk factors include poor diet, such as frequent consumption of fast food and processed meals; sleep disturbance; and psychological stress, particularly related to marital or work issues. Finally, although high alcohol consumption is associated with increased CHD risk, moderate alcohol consumption (ie, less than 1 to 2 drinks/day), particularly of wine and possibly beer, appears to reduce the risk.

  17. [Perception of reproductive risk factors].

    PubMed

    Salinas-Martinez, A M; Martínez-Sanchez, C; Pérez-Segura, J

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify risk perception on several factors related to reproductive health, with the goal of implementing an educational intervention based on detected needs. 405 women between 12 and 44 years were interviewed at home. 62.2% perceived the risk of pregnancy at 17 years and younger; 78.8% the risk of pregnancy at 35 years and older; 76.6% the risk of parity of 5 and higher; and 55.1% the risk of birth interval of 2 years and less. 60.5% recognized family history of birth defects, 80.2% age 35 years and older, and 84.4% rubella during pregnancy, as risk factors for newborns with congenital malformations. 27.7% identified history of a low birth weight and 61.0% birth interval of 1 year and less, as risk factors for low birth weight. The majority perceived the risk of tobacco, alcohol and drugs consumption during pregnancy, diseases with no treatment and deficient nutrition. There was an inconsistent influence of social and obstetric variables on risk perception. No linear correlation was detected. Health educators should recognize differences on knowledge and behavior of future receptors before an educational intervention starts.

  18. [Risk factors for Alzheimer's disease].

    PubMed

    Ikeda, Tokuhei; Yamada, Masahito

    2010-07-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia in elderly patients. Identification of risk factors for AD would contribute to the understanding of AD pathogenesis and thus, help in the development of preventive methods. Early-onset familial AD is associated with mutations of the genes encoding amyloid precursor protein (APP), presenilin 1 (PS-1), or PS-2, resulting in the overproduction of amyloid beta-protein. Epidemiological and case-control studies have led to the identification of several risk factors for sporadic AD. The most concrete genetic risk factor for AD is the epsilon4 allele of apolipoprotein E gene (APOE). In addition, several genes such as CTNNA3, GAB2, PVRL2, TOMM40, and APOC1 are known to be the risk factors that contribute to AD pathogenesis. On the other hand, nongenetic risk factors, such as age, sex, alcohol consumption, smoking, depression, head injury, and nutrition have also been reported. Although aging is the strongest risk factor for AD, the mechanisms underlying the development of AD as a result of ageing remain to be elucidated.

  19. Risk factors for preterm delivery: do they add to fetal fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement in the prediction of preterm delivery in symptomatic women?

    PubMed

    van Baaren, Gert-Jan; Bruijn, Merel M C; Vis, Jolande Y; Wilms, Femke F; Oudijk, Martijn A; Kwee, Anneke; Porath, Martina M; Oei, Guid; Scheepers, Hubertina C J; Spaanderman, Marc E A; Bloemenkamp, Kitty W M; Haak, Monique C; Bolte, Antoinette C; Bax, Caroline J; Cornette, Jérôme M J; Duvekot, Johannes J; Nij Bijvanck, Bas W A; van Eijck, Jim; Franssen, Maureen T M; Sollie, Krystyna M; Vandenbussche, Frank P H A; Woiski, Mallory; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; Opmeer, Brent C; Mol, Ben W J

    2015-09-01

    To assess whether patient characteristics add to the fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement in the prediction of preterm delivery in symptomatic women. A nationwide prospective cohort study was conducted in all ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. Women with symptoms of preterm labour between 24 and 34 weeks gestation with intact membranes were invited. In all women qualitative fibronectin testing (0.050 μg/mL cut-off) and cervical length measurement were performed. Only singleton pregnancies were included in this analysis. Logistic regression was used to construct two multivariable models to predict spontaneously delivery within 7 days: a model including cervical length and fetal fibronectin as predictors, and an extended model including all potential predictors. The models were internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Predictive performances were assessed as the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. We compared the models' capability to identify women with a low risk to deliver within 7 days. A risk less than 5%, corresponding to the risk for women with a cervical length of at least 25 mm, was considered as low risk. Seventy-three of 600 included women (12%) had delivered spontaneously within 7 days. The extended model included maternal age, parity, previous preterm delivery, vaginal bleeding, C-reactive protein, cervical length, dilatation and fibronectin status. Both models had high discriminative performances (AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.95) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.97) respectively). Compared to the model with fibronectin and cervical length, our extended model reclassified 38 women (6%) from low risk to high risk and 21 women (4%) from high risk to low risk. Preterm delivery within 7 days occurred once in both the reclassification groups. In women with symptoms of preterm labour before 34 weeks gestation, a model that integrates maternal characteristics, clinical signs and

  20. Independent effects of age-related changes in waist circumference and BMI z scores in predicting cardiovascular disease risk factors in a prospective cohort of adolescent females1234

    PubMed Central

    Tybor, David J; Lichtenstein, Alice H; Dallal, Gerard E; Daniels, Stephen R; Must, Aviva

    2011-01-01

    Background: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that age-related change in waist circumference (to reflect central adiposity) during adolescence is a significant predictor of longitudinal change in cardiovascular disease risk, after adjustment for change in body mass index (BMI) z score (to reflect total adiposity) in a cohort of postmenarcheal adolescent females. We also tested whether race modified this relation. Design: We analyzed publicly available data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study. Longitudinal regression models were fitted to investigate the independent effects of changes in waist circumference on cardiovascular disease risk factors. Results: Steeper age-related increases in waist circumference over time were associated with a greater increase in LDL-cholesterol concentrations, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, after adjustment for BMI z score, in white but not in black females. Change in waist circumference was not a statistically significant predictor of age-related changes in HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, insulin, and glucose concentrations, after adjustment for changes in BMI z score, in either white or black females. Conclusions: Our research suggests that monitoring waist circumference in addition to BMI z score has the potential to identify adolescents at risk of the emergence of cardiovascular disease risk factors, at least in white females. The data also suggest that race may modify the relation between fat distribution pattern and cardiovascular disease risk factors. PMID:21147855

  1. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Enrollment Factors that Predict Persistence of At-Risk (Low Income and First Generation) Students' Journey towards Completion of a Baccalaureate Degree at Idaho State University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yizar, James H., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore, track, and predict longitudinal differences (over the course of six years beginning fall semester 2001) between and among ISU low income, first generation, or the combination of low income and first generation freshman students; regarding persistence rate, and associated persistence factors, such as ACT…

  13. Risk factors for atherosclerotic vascular disease.

    PubMed

    von Eckardstein, A

    2005-01-01

    Several controlled interventional trials have shown the benefit of anti-hypertensive and hypolipidaemic drugs for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). International guidelines for the prevention of CHD agree in their recommendations for tertiary prevention and recommend lowering the blood pressure to below 140 mm/90 mm Hg and low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol to below 2.6 mmol/l in patients with manifest CHD. Novel recommendations for secondary prevention are focused on the treatment of the pre-symptomatic high-risk patient with an estimated CHD morbidity risk of higher than 20% per 10 years or an estimated CHD mortality risk of higher than 5% per 10 years. For the calculation of this risk, the physician must record the following risk factors: sex, age, family history of premature myocardial infarction, smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and triglyceride. This information allows the absolute risk of myocardial infarction to be computed by using scores or algorithms which have been deduced from results of epidemiological studies. To improve risk prediction and to identify new targets for intervention, novel risk factors are sought. High plasma levels of C-reactive protein has been shown to improve the prognostic value of global risk estimates obtained by the combination of conventional risk factors and may influence treatment decisions in patients with intermediate global cardiovascular risk (CHD morbidity risk of 10%-20% per 10 years or CHD mortality risk of 2%-5% per 10 years).

  14. Bone metastasis risk factors in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Pulido, Catarina; Vendrell, Inês; Ferreira, Arlindo R; Casimiro, Sandra; Mansinho, André; Alho, Irina; Costa, Luís

    2017-01-01

    Bone is the single most frequent site for bone metastasis in breast cancer patients. Patients with bone-only metastasis have a fairly good prognosis when compared with patients with visceral disease. Nevertheless, cancer-induced bone disease carries an important risk of developing skeletal related events that impact quality of life (QoL). It is therefore particularly important to stratify patients according to their risk of developing bone metastasis. In this context, several risk factors have been studied, including demographic, clinicopathological, genetic, and metabolic factors. Most of them show conflicting or non-definitive associations and are not validated for clinical use. Nonetheless, tumour intrinsic subtype is widely accepted as a major risk factor for bone metastasis development and luminal breast cancer carries an increased risk for bone disease. Other factors such as gene signatures, expression of specific cytokines (such as bone sialoprotein and bone morphogenetic protein 7) or components of the extracellular matrix (like bone crosslinked C-telopeptide) might also influence the development of bone metastasis. Knowledge of risk factors related with bone disease is of paramount importance as it might be a prediction tool for triggering the use of targeted agents and allow for better patient selection for future clinical trials. PMID:28194227

  15. Left atrial dimension and traditional cardiovascular risk factors predict 20-year clinical cardiovascular events in young healthy adults: the CARDIA study

    PubMed Central

    Armstrong, Anderson C.; Liu, Kiang; Lewis, Cora E.; Sidney, Stephen; Colangelo, Laura A.; Kishi, Satoru; Ambale-Venkatesh, Bharath; Arynchyn, Alex; Jacobs, David R.; Correia, Luís C.L.; Gidding, Samuel S.; Lima, João A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Aims We investigated whether the addition of left atrial (LA) size determined by echocardiography improves cardiovascular risk prediction in young adults over and above the clinically established Framingham 10-year global CV risk score (FRS). Methods and results We included white and black CARDIA participants who had echocardiograms in Year-5 examination (1990–91). The combined endpoint after 20 years was incident fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease: myocardial infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and atrial fibrillation/flutter. Echocardiography-derived M-mode LA diameter (LAD; n = 4082; 149 events) and 2D four-chamber LA area (LAA; n = 2412; 77 events) were then indexed by height or body surface area (BSA). We used Cox regression, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess the prediction power of LA size when added to calculated FRS or FRS covariates. The LAD and LAA cohorts had similar characteristics; mean LAD/height was 2.1 ± 0.3 mm/m and LAA/height 9.3 ± 2.0 mm2/m. After indexing by height and adjusting for FRS covariates, hazard ratios were 1.31 (95% CI 1.12, 1.60) and 1.43 (95% CI 1.13, 1.80) for LAD and LAA, respectively; AUC was 0.77 for LAD and 0.78 for LAA. When LAD and LAA were indexed to BSA, the results were similar but slightly inferior. Both LAD and LAA showed modest reclassification ability, with non-significant NRIs. Conclusion LA size measurements independently predict clinical outcomes. However, it only improves discrimination over clinical parameters modestly without altering risk classification. Indexing LA size by height is at least as robust as by BSA. Further research is needed to assess subgroups of young adults who may benefit from LA size information in risk stratification. PMID:24534011

  16. Identification of Caries Risk Factors in Toddlers

    PubMed Central

    Fontana, M.; Jackson, R.; Eckert, G.; Swigonski, N.; Chin, J.; Zandona, A. Ferreira; Ando, M.; Stookey, G.K.; Downs, S.; Zero, D.T.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors to predict caries progression in toddlers in primary-healthcare settings for the cost-effective targeting of preventive and referral strategies. We examined 329 children (26 ± 6 mos old) twice, one year apart, in Indiana, USA. A 107-item structured interview was used to collect information from the primary caregiver and child on factors/beliefs/perceptions/behaviors that could affect caries development, transmission of bacteria, medical-dental health, and access to care. Bacterial levels, gingivitis, dental plaque, and caries experience were assessed. Multiple-variable logistic regression models of caries progression toward cavitation included family caries experience, transmission-related behaviors, dietary factors, health beliefs, and lower income, but differed in selected predictors/predictive power by race/ethnicity. Addition of clinical variables did not significantly improve the prediction. PMID:21173434

  17. Number of Unfavorable Intermediate-Risk Factors Predicts Pathologic Upstaging and Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality Following Radical Prostatectomy: Results From the SEARCH Database.

    PubMed

    Zumsteg, Zachary S; Chen, Zinan; Howard, Lauren E; Amling, Christopher L; Aronson, William J; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Kane, Christopher J; Terris, Martha K; Spratt, Daniel E; Sandler, Howard M; Freedland, Stephen J

    2017-02-01

    To validate and further improve the stratification of intermediate risk prostate cancer into favorable and unfavorable subgroups for patients undergoing radical prostatectomy. The SEARCH database was queried for IR patients undergoing radical prostatectomy without adjuvant radiotherapy. UIR disease was defined any patient with at least one unfavorable risk factor (URF), including primary Gleason pattern 4, 50% of more biopsy cores containing cancer, or multiple National Comprehensive Cancer Network IR factors. One thousand five hundred eighty-six patients with IR prostate cancer comprised the study cohort. Median follow-up was 62 months. Patients classified as UIR were significantly more likely to have pathologic high-risk features, such as Gleason score 8 - 10, pT3-4 disease, or lymph node metastases, than FIR patients (P < 0.001). Furthermore, UIR patients had significantly higher rates of PSA-relapse (PSA, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.89, P < 0.001) and distant metastasis (DM, HR = 2.92, P = 0.001), but no difference in prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) or all-cause mortality in multivariable analysis. On secondary analysis, patients with ≥2 URF had significantly worse PSA-RFS, DM, and PCSM than those with 0 or 1 URF. Moreover, 40% of patients with ≥2 URF had high-risk pathologic features. Patients with UIR prostate cancer are at increased risk of PSA relapse, DM, and pathologic upstaging following prostatectomy. However, increased risk of PCSM was only detected in those with ≥2 URF. This suggests that further refinement of the UIR subgroup may improve risk stratification. Prostate Prostate 77:154-163, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Hypoparathyroidism following thyroidectomy: Predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Coimbra, Cristiana; Monteiro, Francisco; Oliveira, Pedro; Ribeiro, Leandro; de Almeida, Mário Giesteira; Condé, Artur

    To evaluate the incidence and predictive factors for transient and permanent hypocalcemia and hypoparathyroidism following thyroidectomy. We studied all the 162 patients that underwent thyroid surgery in the ENT department of the Centro Hospitalar Vila Nova Gaia/Espinho from January 2005 to December 2014. We reviewed pre-operative, 6h and 12h after surgery ionized calcium and PTH levels. All patients were reviewed and evaluated according to the following criteria: gender, age, thyroid function, histologic diagnosis of the specimen, surgery extension and presence or absence of hypoparathyroidism. There were 31 (19.1%) cases of transient hypoparathyroidism and 8 (5%) of permanent hypoparathyroidism. No significant difference was found for transient hypoparathyroidism when patients were analyzed by gender. However, all cases of permanent hypoparathyroidism were observed in female individuals. Comparing hemithyroidectomy with all other surgical procedures, we found that extension of surgery was a great predictor of transient (p=0.0001) and permanent (p=0.001) hypoparathyroidism. Diagnosis of malignancy was a strong predictor of transient hypoparathyroidism (p=0.002). It was also associated with permanent hypoparathyroidism, although differences did not reach statistical significance (p=0.096). Extension of surgery (total thyroidectomy) and diagnosis of malignancy are predictors of transient and permanent hypoparathyroidism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Cirugía de Cabeza y Cuello. All rights reserved.

  19. Environmental risk factors for osteoporosis

    SciTech Connect

    Goyer, R.A.; Korach, K.S. ); Epstein, S. ); Bhattacharyya, M. ); Pounds, J. )

    1994-04-01

    Environmental risk factors for osteoporosis were reviewed at a conference held at the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences 8-9 November 1993. The conference was co-sponsored by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Disease and the NIH Office of Research in Women's Health. The objective of the conference was to review what is known about risk factors for osteoporosis and to identify gaps in the present state of knowledge that might be addressed by future research. The conference was divided into two broad themes. The first session focused on current knowledge regarding etiology, risk factors, and approaches to clinical and laboratory diagnosis. This was followed by three sessions in which various environmental pollutants were discussed. Topics selected for review included environmental agents that interfere with bone and calcium metabolism, such as the toxic metals lead, cadmium, aluminum, and fluoride, natural and antiestrogens, calcium, and vitamin D.

  20. Updating Risk Prediction Tools: A Case Study in Prostate Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Ankerst, Donna P.; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J.; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G.; Partin, Alan W.; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M.

    2013-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [−2]proPSA measured on an external case control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. PMID:22095849

  1. Risk factors for eosinophilic esophagitis.

    PubMed

    Philpott, H; Nandurkar, S; Royce, S G; Thien, F; Gibson, P R

    2014-08-01

    Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic antigen driven disease, whereby food and/or aeroallergens result in inflammation and luminal narrowing, and the clinical symptoms of dysphagia and food bolus obstruction events (FBOE). Established risk factors are male gender, Caucasian race and atopy. Increased risk amongst family members, and a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in a gene coding thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) on the pseudoautosomal region of the X and Y chromosomes supports a genetic predisposition. Environmental factors including the timing and nature of food and aeroallergen exposure to the developing immune system may be important, whilst esophageal barrier function integrity and the influence of microbiota are worthy of future research.

  2. Lung cancer risk prediction: a tool for early detection.

    PubMed

    Cassidy, Adrian; Duffy, Stephen W; Myles, Jonathan P; Liloglou, Triantafillos; Field, John K

    2007-01-01

    Although 45% of men and 39% of women will be diagnosed with cancer in their lifetime, it is difficult to predict which individuals will be affected. For some cancers, substantial progress in individual risk estimation has already been made. However, relatively few models have been developed to predict lung cancer risk beyond effects of age and smoking. This paper reviews published models for lung cancer risk prediction, discusses their potential contribution to clinical and research settings and suggests improvements to the risk modeling strategy for lung cancer. The sensitivity and specificity of existing cancer risk models is less than optimal. Improvement in individual risk prediction is important for selection of individuals for prevention or early detection interventions. In addition to smoking, factors related to occupational exposure, personal medical history and family history of cancer can add to the predictive power. A good risk prediction model is one that can identify a small fraction of the population in which a large proportion of the disease cases will occur. In the future, genetic and other biological markers are likely to be useful, although they will require rigorous evaluation. Validation is essential to establish the predictive effect and for ongoing monitoring of the model's continued relevance.

  3. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  4. Incidence, risk factors and prediction of post-operative acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery for active infective endocarditis: an observational study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Cardiac surgery is frequently needed in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). Acute kidney injury (AKI) often complicates IE and is associated with poor outcomes. The purpose of the study was to determine the risk factors for post-operative AKI in patients operated on for IE. Methods A retrospective, non-interventional study of prospectively collected data (2000–2010) included patients with IE and cardiac surgery with cardio-pulmonary bypass. The primary outcome was post-operative AKI, defined as the development of AKI or progression of AKI based on the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) definition. We used ensemble machine learning (“Super Learning”) to develop a predictor of AKI based on potential risk factors, and evaluated its performance using V-fold cross validation. We identified clinically important predictors among a set of risk factors using Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Results 202 patients were included, of which 120 (59%) experienced a post-operative AKI. 65 (32.2%) patients presented an AKI before surgery while 91 (45%) presented a progression of AKI in the post-operative period. 20 patients (9.9%) required a renal replacement therapy during the post-operative ICU stay and 30 (14.8%) died during their hospital stay. The following variables were found to be significantly associated with renal function impairment, after adjustment for other risk factors: multiple surgery (OR: 4.16, 95% CI: 2.98-5.80, p<0.001), pre-operative anemia (OR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.34-2.66, p<0.001), transfusion requirement during surgery (OR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.55-3.63, p<0.001), and the use of vancomycin (OR: 2.63, 95% CI: 2.07-3.34, p<0.001), aminoglycosides (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.13-1.83, p=0.004) or contrast iodine (OR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.37-2.12, p<0.001). Post-operative but not pre-operative AKI was associated with hospital mortality. Conclusions Post-operative AKI following cardiopulmonary bypass for IE results from additive hits to the kidney. We

  5. Acute and chronic kidney disease in elderly patients with hip fracture: prevalence, risk factors and outcome with development and validation of a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury.

    PubMed

    Porter, Christine J; Moppett, Iain K; Juurlink, Irene; Nightingale, Jessica; Moran, Christopher G; Devonald, Mark A J

    2017-01-14

    Hip fracture is a common injury in older people with a high rate of postoperative morbidity and mortality. This patient group is also at high risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), but little is known of the impact of kidney disease on outcome following hip fracture. An observational cohort of consecutive patients with hip fracture in a large UK secondary care hospital. Predictive modelling of outcomes using development and validation datasets. Inclusion: all patients admitted with hip fracture with sufficient serum creatinine measurements to define acute kidney injury. Main outcome measures - development of acute kidney injury during admission; mortality (in hospital, 30-365 day and to follow-up); length of hospital stay. Data were available for 2848 / 2959 consecutive admissions from 2007-2011; 776 (27.2%) male. Acute kidney injury occurs in 24%; development of acute kidney injury is independently associated with male sex (OR 1.48 (1.21 to 1.80), premorbid chronic kidney disease stage 3B or worse (OR 1.52 (1.19 to 1.93)), age (OR 3.4 (2.29 to 5.2) for >85 years) and greater than one major co-morbidities (OR 1.61 (1.34 to 1.93)). Acute kidney injury of any stage is associated with an increased hazard of death, and increased length of stay (Acute kidney injury: 19.1 (IQR 13 to 31) days; no acute kidney injury 15 (11 to 23) days). A simplified predictive model containing Age, CKD stage (3B-5), two or more comorbidities, and male sex had an area under the ROC curve of 0.63 (0.60 to 0.67). Acute kidney injury following hip fracture is common and associated with worse outcome and greater hospital length of stay. With the number of people experiencing hip fracture predicted to rise, recognition of risk factors and optimal perioperative management of acute kidney injury will become even more important.

  6. Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

    PubMed

    O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

    1998-12-01

    A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

  7. Risk factors for Down syndrome.

    PubMed

    Coppedè, Fabio

    2016-12-01

    Down syndrome (DS) originates, in most of the cases (95 %), from a full trisomy of chromosome 21. The remaining cases are due to either mosaicism for chromosome 21 or the inheritance of a structural rearrangement leading to partial trisomy of the majority of its content. Full trisomy 21 and mosaicism are not inherited, but originate from errors in cell divisions during the development of the egg, sperm or embryo. In addition, full trisomy for chromosome 21 should be further divided into cases of maternal origin, the majority, and cases of paternal origin, less than 10 %. Among cases of maternal origin, a further stratification should be performed into errors that have occurred or originated during the first meiotic division in the maternal grandmother's body and errors that occurred later in life during the second maternal meiotic division. This complex scenario suggests that our understanding of the risk factors for trisomy 21 should take into account the above stratification as it reflects different individuals and generations in which the first error has occurred. Unfortunately, most of the available literature is focused on maternal risk factors, and the only certain risk factors for the birth of a child with DS are advanced maternal age at conception and recombination errors, even though the molecular mechanisms leading to chromosome 21 nondisjunction are still a matter of debate. This article critically reviews the hypotheses and the risk factors which have been suggested to contribute to the birth of a child with DS, including folate metabolism, dietary, lifestyle, environmental, occupational, genetic and epigenetic factors, with focus on maternal and paternal risk factors, and taking into account the possible contribution of the maternal grandmother and that of the developing trisomic embryo, in a complex scenario depicting the birth of a child with DS as the result of complex gene-environment interactions and selection processes involving different

  8. Overview of entry risk predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrozinski, R.; Mendeck, G.; Cutri-Kohart, R.

    Risk to people on the ground from uncontrolled entries of spacecraft is a primary concern when analyzing end-of-life disposal options for satellites. Countries must balance this risk with the need to mitigate an exponentially growing space debris population. Currently the United States does this via guidelines that call for a satellite to be disposed of in a controlled manner if an uncontrolled entry would be too risky to people on the ground. This risk is measured by a quantity called "casualty expectation", or E , where casualty expectation is defined as the expectedc number of people suffering death or injury due to a spacecraft entry event. If Ec exceeds 1 in 10,000, U. S. guidelines state that the entry should be controlled rather than uncontrolled. Since this guideline can have serious impacts on the cost, lifetime, and even the mission and functionality of a satellite, it is critical that this quantity be estimated well, and decision makers understand all assumptions and limitations inherent in the resulting value. This paper discusses several issues regarding estimates of casualty expectation, beginning with an overview of relevant United States policies and guidelines. The equation the space industry typically uses to estimate casualty expectation is presented, along with a look at the sensitivity of the results to the typical assumptions, models, and initial condition uncertainties. Differences in these modeling issues with respect to launch failure Ec estimates are included in the discussion. An alternate quantity to assess risks due to spacecraft entries is introduced. "Probability of casualty", or Pc , is defined as the probability of one or more instances of people suffering death or injury due to a spacecraft entry event. The equation to estimate Pc is derived, where the same assumptions, modeling, and initial condition issues for Ec apply. Several examples are then given of both Ec and Pc estimate calculations. Due to the difficult issues in

  9. Risk index proposal to predict atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Silva, Rogério Gomes da; Lima, Gustavo Glotz de; Guerra, Nelma; Bigolin, André Vicente; Petersen, Lucas Celia

    2010-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication following cardiac surgery and is associated with an increased patient morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to develop a risk index proposal to predict AF after cardiac surgery. A prospective observational study in that 452 patients were selected to assess the incidence and risk factors associated with postoperative AF. Only patients following cardiac surgery were selected. Continuous cardiac monitor and daily electrocardiogram were assessed. The most associated in a multivariable logistic model were selected for the risk index. The average incidence of AF was 22.1%. The most associated factors with AF were: patients older than 75 years of age, mitral valve disease, no use of a beta blocker, withdrawal of a beta-blocker and a positive fluid balance. The absence risk factor determined 4.6% chance to postoperative AF, and for one, two and three or more risk factors, the chance was 16.6%, 25.9% and 46.3%, respectively. In a multivariable logistic model was possible to develop a risk index proposal to predict postoperative AF with a major risk of 46.3% in the presence of three or more risk factors.

  10. New findings on biological factors predicting addiction relapse vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Sinha, Rajita

    2011-10-01

    Relapse is a highly prevalent phenomenon in addiction. This paper examines the new research on identifying biological factors that contribute to addiction relapse risk. Prospective studies examining relapse risk are reviewed, and clinical, biological, and neural factors that predict relapse risk are identified. Clinical factors, patient-related factors, and subjective and behavioral measures such as depressive symptoms, stress, and drug craving all predict future relapse risk. Among biological measures, endocrine measures such as cortisol and cortisol/corticotropin (ACTH) ratio as a measure of adrenal sensitivity and serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor were also predictive of future relapse risk. Among neural measures, brain atrophy in the medial frontal regions and hyperreactivity of the anterior cingulate during withdrawal were identified as important in drug withdrawal and relapse risk. Caveats pertaining to specific drug abuse type and phase of addiction are discussed. Finally, significant implications of these findings for clinical practice are presented, with a specific focus on determining biological markers of relapse risk that may be used to identify those individuals who are most at risk of relapse in the clinic. Such markers may then be used to assess treatment response and develop specific treatments that will normalize these neural and biological sequelae so as to significantly improve relapse outcomes.

  11. Predictive risk models for proximal aortic surgery

    PubMed Central

    Díaz, Rocío; Pascual, Isaac; Álvarez, Rubén; Alperi, Alberto; Rozado, Jose; Morales, Carlos; Silva, Jacobo; Morís, César

    2017-01-01

    Predictive risk models help improve decision making, information to our patients and quality control comparing results between surgeons and between institutions. The use of these models promotes competitiveness and led to increasingly better results. All these virtues are of utmost importance when the surgical operation entails high-risk. Although proximal aortic surgery is less frequent than other cardiac surgery operations, this procedure itself is more challenging and technically demanding than other common cardiac surgery techniques. The aim of this study is to review the current status of predictive risk models for patients who undergo proximal aortic surgery, which means aortic root replacement, supracoronary ascending aortic replacement or aortic arch surgery. PMID:28616348

  12. Predictive risk models for proximal aortic surgery.

    PubMed

    Hernandez-Vaquero, Daniel; Díaz, Rocío; Pascual, Isaac; Álvarez, Rubén; Alperi, Alberto; Rozado, Jose; Morales, Carlos; Silva, Jacobo; Morís, César

    2017-05-01

    Predictive risk models help improve decision making, information to our patients and quality control comparing results between surgeons and between institutions. The use of these models promotes competitiveness and led to increasingly better results. All these virtues are of utmost importance when the surgical operation entails high-risk. Although proximal aortic surgery is less frequent than other cardiac surgery operations, this procedure itself is more challenging and technically demanding than other common cardiac surgery techniques. The aim of this study is to review the current status of predictive risk models for patients who undergo proximal aortic surgery, which means aortic root replacement, supracoronary ascending aortic replacement or aortic arch surgery.

  13. Abnormal lipoprotein(a) levels predict coronary artery calcification in Southeast Asians but not in Caucasians: use of noninvasive imaging for evaluation of an emerging risk factor.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Abhinav; Kasim, Manoefris; Joshi, Parag H; Qian, Zhen; Krivitsky, Eric; Akram, Kamran; Rinehart, Sarah; Vazquez, Gustavo; Miller, Joseph; Rohman, Mohammad Saifur; Voros, Szilard

    2011-08-01

    Subclinical atherosclerosis can be quantified by coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. Due to its high specificity for atherosclerosis, CAC is an excellent phenotypic tool for the evaluation of emerging risk markers. Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is atherogenic due to the presence of apoB and may be thrombogenic through its apo(a) component. Lp(a) has been linked to cardiovascular events in Caucasians; however, its link to atherosclerosis in various ethnicities remains unclear. We evaluated the ability of Lp(a) mass to predict subclinical atherosclerosis in Southeast Asians and Caucasians, as measured by CAC. Traditional lipid measurements, Lp(a) measurements, and CAC by 64-slice multidetector computed tomography was performed in 103 consecutive patients in the USA and in 104 consecutive patients in Jakarta, Indonesia. Proportion of positive CAC and median CAC in Southeast Asians and in Caucasians was 61.5% and 63.1%, and 23.5 (interquartile range, 0-270) and 13 (interquartile range, 0-388), respectively. Significantly higher proportion of Southeast Asians had elevated Lp(a) levels, compared to Caucasians (51.0% vs. 29.2%; p = 0.005). In Southeast Asians, Lp(a) remained an independent predictor of CAC with an odds ratio of 4.97 (95% confidence interval, 1.56-15.88; p < 0.0001), but not in Caucasians. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an improvement in area under the curve from 0.81 to 0.86 (p = 0.05) when including Lp(a) in the predictive model in Southeast Asians. This translated to 7% of Southeast Asians reclassified to correct CAC status. Lp(a) measurements may have a role in risk stratification of Southeast Asians. Ethnic variation should be taken into account when considering the use of Lp(a) measurements in risk assessment.

  14. An artificial neural network prediction model of congenital heart disease based on risk factors: A hospital-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Zheng, Jianfei; Luo, Jiayou; Zeng, Rong; Feng, Na; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun

    2017-02-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the risks of congenital heart disease (CHD) in pregnant women.This hospital-based case-control study involved 119 CHD cases and 239 controls all recruited from birth defect surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province between July 2013 and June 2014. All subjects were interviewed face-to-face to fill in a questionnaire that covered 36 CHD-related variables. The 358 subjects were randomly divided into a training set and a testing set at the ratio of 85:15. The training set was used to identify the significant predictors of CHD by univariate logistic regression analyses and develop a standard feed-forward back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for the prediction of CHD. The testing set was used to test and evaluate the performance of the ANN model. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed on SPSS 18.0. The ANN models were developed on Matlab 7.1.The univariate logistic regression identified 15 predictors that were significantly associated with CHD, including education level (odds ratio  = 0.55), gravidity (1.95), parity (2.01), history of abnormal reproduction (2.49), family history of CHD (5.23), maternal chronic disease (4.19), maternal upper respiratory tract infection (2.08), environmental pollution around maternal dwelling place (3.63), maternal exposure to occupational hazards (3.53), maternal mental stress (2.48), paternal chronic disease (4.87), paternal exposure to occupational hazards (2.51), intake of vegetable/fruit (0.45), intake of fish/shrimp/meat/egg (0.59), and intake of milk/soymilk (0.55). After many trials, we selected a 3-layer BPNN model with 15, 12, and 1 neuron in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively, as the best prediction model. The prediction model has accuracies of 0.91 and 0.86 on the training and testing sets, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and Yuden Index on the testing set (training set) are 0.78 (0.83), 0.90 (0.95), and 0

  15. Predicting Factors for Refractory Kawasaki Disease

    PubMed Central

    Do, Young-Sun; Kim, Ki-Won; Chun, Jin-Kyong; Cha, Byung Ho; Namgoong, Mee Kyung

    2010-01-01

    Background and Objectives About 10-15% of Kawasaki disease (KD) is refractory to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy. This study was designed to investigate the predicting factors for refractory KD. Subjects and Methods We reviewed retrospectively the clinical records of 77 patients with typical KD admitted at Wonju Christian Hospital from January, 2005, to December, 2008. The variance of laboratory and demographic parameters between the IVIG-responsive group and IVIG-resistant group were analyzed. Thirteen patients with urinary tract infections were randomly collected as a febrile control group. Results Among 77 patients diagnosed with complete KD, 13 patients (16.9%) were IVIG-resistant. The febrile period and hospital days were significantly longer in the IVIG-resistant group than IVIG-responsive group (p<0.001, p=0.002). Serum levels of albumin and sodium were significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group (p=0.025). The Kobayashi score could differentiate these two groups (p=0.015). Fewer lymphocytes was observed during the subacute phase in the IVIG-resistant group (p=0.032). Coronary arterial dilatations (CADs) were observed in 10.9% (7/64) of IVIG-responders and 38.5% (5/13) of IVIG-resistant patients (p=0.038). Conclusion The percentage of neutrophils and lymphocytes in patients with KD, in addition to known risk factors for refractory KD, may help predict IVIG-resistance in patients with KD. PMID:20514335

  16. Predicting factors for refractory kawasaki disease.

    PubMed

    Do, Young-Sun; Kim, Ki-Won; Chun, Jin-Kyong; Cha, Byung Ho; Namgoong, Mee Kyung; Lee, Hae Yong

    2010-05-01

    About 10-15% of Kawasaki disease (KD) is refractory to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy. This study was designed to investigate the predicting factors for refractory KD. We reviewed retrospectively the clinical records of 77 patients with typical KD admitted at Wonju Christian Hospital from January, 2005, to December, 2008. The variance of laboratory and demographic parameters between the IVIG-responsive group and IVIG-resistant group were analyzed. Thirteen patients with urinary tract infections were randomly collected as a febrile control group. Among 77 patients diagnosed with complete KD, 13 patients (16.9%) were IVIG-resistant. The febrile period and hospital days were significantly longer in the IVIG-resistant group than IVIG-responsive group (p<0.001, p=0.002). Serum levels of albumin and sodium were significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group (p=0.025). The Kobayashi score could differentiate these two groups (p=0.015). Fewer lymphocytes was observed during the subacute phase in the IVIG-resistant group (p=0.032). Coronary arterial dilatations (CADs) were observed in 10.9% (7/64) of IVIG-responders and 38.5% (5/13) of IVIG-resistant patients (p=0.038). The percentage of neutrophils and lymphocytes in patients with KD, in addition to known risk factors for refractory KD, may help predict IVIG-resistance in patients with KD.

  17. Predicting the recurrence risk factors and clinical outcomes of peripheral pulmonary adenocarcinoma ≤3 cm with wedge resection.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yiyang; Wang, Rui; Zheng, Difan; Han, Baohui; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Heng; Luo, Jizhuang; Zheng, Jiajie; Chen, Tianxiang; Huang, Qingyuan; Sun, Yihua; Chen, Haiquan

    2017-06-01

    This study was designed to investigate the risk factors of recurrence and survival of clinical stage I lung adenocarcinoma underwent wedge resection by the use of Shanghai Chest Hospital Lung Cancer Database. A total of 746 patients with clinical stage I adenocarcinoma underwent wedge resection from 2010 to 2015 in our database were included in this study. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression were performed successively to select significant risk factors and then nomograms as well as the concordance indexes for RFS, OS and LCSS were developed, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were performed if necessary, with the identification of log-rank test. The 5-year RFS, OS and LCSS of clinical stage I adenocarcinoma underwent wedge resection were 86.1, 83.6 and 85.2%, respectively. There were three independent risk factors related with RFS (sex, pathology, pleural invasion), two related with OS (sex, volume ratio) and two with LCSS (sex, volume ratio) with the analysis of Cox regression and were selected to develop nomograms. The C-indexes of RFS, OS and LCSS were 0.767 (95% CI 0.667-0.867), 0.782 (95% CI 0.660-0.904) and 0.794 (95% CI 0.669-0.919), respectively. Lymphadenectomy did not show differences statistically but had tendencies of better RFS, OS and LCSS among the subgroup of invasive adenocarcinoma. Sex, pathology and pleural invasion could be recommended as criteria for clinical stage I adenocarcinoma undergoing wedge resection. And the larger the wedge volume and/or the smaller the tumor volume was, the better OS and LCSS were. If the volume ratio reached 10:1 or more, the survival rate was approximately 90% for both OS and LCSS. Whether lymphadenectomy was necessary for WR, especially in invasive adenocarcinoma, needed further research.

  18. Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

  19. [Risk factors associated to preclampsia].

    PubMed

    López-Carbajal, Mario Joaquín; Manríquez-Moreno, María Esther; Gálvez-Camargo, Daniela; Ramírez-Jiménez, Evelia

    2012-01-01

    preeclampsia constitutes one of the main causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated to the developmental of preeclampsia mild-moderate and severe, as well as the force of association of these factors in a hospital of second-level medical care. study of cases and controls, a relation 1:1, in women withdrawn of the Service of Gynecology and Obstetrics during 2004 to 2007. Pregnant women with more than 20 weeks gestation were included. In the cases group we included patients with diagnosis of preeclampsia mild-moderate or severe (corroborated clinical and laboratory). In the controls group that had a normal childbirth without pathology during the pregnancy. 42 cases and 42 controls. The average age was of 27 years. The associated risk factors were overweight, obesity, irregular prenatal control, short or long intergenesic period, history of caesarean or preeclampsia in previous pregnancies. the knowledge of the risk factors will allow the accomplishment of preventive measures and decrease the fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality due to preeclampsia.

  20. Prediction of lateral pelvic lymph node metastasis from lower rectal cancer using magnetic resonance imaging and risk factors for metastasis: Multicenter study of the Lymph Node Committee of the Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum.

    PubMed

    Ogawa, Shimpei; Hida, Jin-Ichi; Ike, Hideyuki; Kinugasa, Tetsushi; Ota, Mitsuyoshi; Shinto, Eiji; Itabashi, Michio; Okamoto, Takahiro; Yamamoto, Masakazu; Sugihara, Kenichi; Watanabe, Toshiaki

    2017-07-31

    The goal of the study was to examine prediction of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) metastasis from lower rectal cancer using a logistic model including risk factors for LPLN metastasis and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) clinical LPLN (cLPLN) status, compared to prediction based on MRI alone. The subjects were 272 patients with lower rectal cancer who underwent MRI prior to mesorectal excision combined with LPLN dissection (LPLD) at six institutes. No patients received neoadjuvant therapy. Prediction models for right and left pathological LPLN (pLPLN) metastasis were developed using cLPLN status, histopathological grade, and perirectal lymph node (PRLN) status. For evaluation, data for patients with left LPLD were substituted into the right-side equation and vice versa. Left LPLN metastasis was predicted using the right-side model with accuracy of 86.5%, sensitivity 56.4%, specificity 92.7%, positive predictive value (PPV) 61.1%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 91.2%, while these data using MRI cLPLN status alone were 80.4, 76.9, 81.2, 45.5, and 94.5%, respectively. Similarly, right LPLN metastasis was predicted using the left-side equation with accuracy of 83.8%, sensitivity 57.8%, specificity 90.4%, PPV 60.5%, and NPV 89.4%, and the equivalent data using MRI alone were 78.4, 68.9, 80.8, 47.7, and 91.1%, respectively. The AUCs for the right- and left-side equations were significantly higher than the equivalent AUCs for MRI cLPLN status alone. A logistic model including risk factors for LPLN metastasis and MRI findings had significantly better performance for prediction of LPLN metastasis compared with a model based on MRI findings alone.

  1. [Risk factors of fatal outcome in pancreatonecrosis].

    PubMed

    Romanov, É I; Zubeev, P S; Ryzhov, M K; Bodrov, A A

    2014-01-01

    The article analyzed risk factors after operations for pancreatonecrosis in order to predict a course of the disease and carefully plan the treatment. It was revealed that the lethality level depended on different factors: the sex, age, a period of admission to the hospital, prevalence of necrotic suppurative process and severity of operative trauma. The authors made a conclusion of radical change to treatment approach. The open operations should be reduced at the expense of introduction of low-invasive methods of treatment in the case of pancreatonecrosis.

  2. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  3. Assessing patients’ risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed Central

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179−0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135−0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician’s self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed. PMID:25810005

  4. Neighborhood risk factors for obesity.

    PubMed

    Lopez, Russ P

    2007-08-01

    The goal of this study was to explore neighborhood environmental factors associated with obesity in a sample of adults living in a major U.S. metropolitan area. This was a multi-level study combining data from the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System with data from the U.S. Census. A total of 15,358 subjects living in 327 zip code tabulation areas were surveyed between 1998 and 2002. The outcome was obesity (BMI >30), and independent variables assessed included individual level variables (age, education, income, smoking status, sex, black race, and Hispanic ethnicity), and zip code level variables (percentage black, percentage Hispanic, percentage with more than a high school education, retail density, establishment density, employment density, population density, the presence of a supermarket, intersection density, median household income, and density of fast food outlets). After controlling for individual level factors, median household income [relative risk (RR) = 0.992; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.990, 0.994], population density (RR = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.972, 0.990), employment density (RR = 1.004; 95% CI = 1.001, 1.009), establishment density (RR = 0.981 95% CI = 0.964, 0.999), and the presence of a supermarket (RR = 0.893; 95% CI = 0.815, 0.978) were associated with obesity risk. Fast food establishment density was poorly associated with obesity risk. Where one lives may affect obesity status. Given the influence of the presence of a supermarket on obesity risk, efforts to address food access might be a priority for reducing obesity.

  5. What predicts incident use of cannabis and progression to abuse and dependence? A 4-year prospective examination of risk factors in a community sample of adolescents and young adults.

    PubMed

    von Sydow, Kirsten; Lieb, Roselind; Pfister, Hildegard; Höfler, Michael; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich

    2002-09-01

    To determine risk factors of incident onset of use, abuse and dependence of cannabis in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Risk factors were examined in a prospective longitudinal design across 4 years in a representative sample (N = 2,446) aged 14-24 at the outset of the study (EDSP). Patterns of DSM-IV defined cannabis use, abuse and dependence were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Potential risk factors were assessed at baseline. Incident cannabis use, abuse and dependence at second follow-up (on average 42 months after baseline) were the main outcome measures in this study. Associations were analyzed with logistic and negative binomial regressions. Using 11 of a total of 56 variables examined, the predictive value of the final multiple logistic regression for incident cannabis use was moderately good (area under the ROC curve = 0.78). Cannabis use frequency was predicted in the final model by 18 variables, cannabis abuse by two variables in the younger subsample and nine factors in the older group, and dependence by eight variables (dependence: ROC curve area = 0.97). Incident cannabis use was predicted mainly by availability of drugs, peers' drug use, a more 'positive' attitude towards future drug use, and regular previous use of licit drugs, while cannabis dependence was predicted primarily by parental death before age 15, deprived socio-economic status, and baseline use of other illicit drugs. Different factors predict the onset or severity of cannabis use and the progression to abuse and dependence. In addition to well-documented risk factors such as peer group pressure, drug availability, and low self-esteem, findings suggest that family history (e.g. parental mental disorders, early parental death), and prior experiences with legal drugs play a significant role in the initiation of cannabis consumption and the transition to cannabis use disorders in adolescents and young adults. Findings suggest

  6. Child sexual assault: risk factors for girls.

    PubMed

    Butler, Amy C

    2013-09-01

    To identify prospectively measured risk factors of sexual assault (SA) among girls age 17 and younger. The data come from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and are derived from interviews with 1,087 girls, their primary caregivers, and household heads. The data were collected from the girls' first year of life through their early twenties. Factors measured during childhood were used to predict whether the girls experienced a subsequent first sexual assault before the age of 18. Prospectively measured risk factors associated with subsequent child SA included the absence of one or both parents, maternal education less than college, family income below 400% of the federal poverty threshold, low caregiver warmth, child internalizing and externalizing behaviors, impulsivity, low achievement scores, and having been classified by their school as needing special education. Girls with behavioral health problems and learning challenges are at heightened risk for sexual assault. Research on behavioral health consequences of SA should control for preexisting SA risk factors to more accurately estimate the impact of child SA on subsequent behavioral health.

  7. DBD: a transcription factor prediction database.

    PubMed

    Kummerfeld, Sarah K; Teichmann, Sarah A

    2006-01-01

    Regulation of gene expression influences almost all biological processes in an organism; sequence-specific DNA-binding transcription factors are critical to this control. For most genomes, the repertoire of transcription factors is only partially known. Hitherto transcription factor identification has been largely based on genome annotation pipelines that use pairwise sequence comparisons, which detect only those factors similar to known genes, or on functional classification schemes that amalgamate many types of proteins into the category of 'transcription factor'. Using a novel transcription factor identification method, the DBD transcription factor database fills this void, providing genome-wide transcription factor predictions for organisms from across the tree of life. The prediction method behind DBD identifies sequence-specific DNA-binding transcription factors through homology using profile hidden Markov models (HMMs) of domains. Thus, it is limited to factors that are homologus to those HMMs. The collection of HMMs is taken from two existing databases (Pfam and SUPERFAMILY), and is limited to models that exclusively detect transcription factors that specifically recognize DNA sequences. It does not include basal transcription factors or chromatin-associated proteins, for instance. Based on comparison with experimentally verified annotation, the prediction procedure is between 95% and 99% accurate. Between one quarter and one-half of our genome-wide predicted transcription factors represent previously uncharacterized proteins. The DBD (www.transcriptionfactor.org) consists of predicted transcription factor repertoires for 150 completely sequenced genomes, their domain assignments and the hand curated list of DNA-binding domain HMMs. Users can browse, search or download the predictions by genome, domain family or sequence identifier, view families of transcription factors based on domain architecture and receive predictions for a protein sequence.

  8. Composite risk scores for predicting dementia.

    PubMed

    Stephan, Blossom C M; Tang, Eugene; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela

    2016-03-01

    A key priority in dementia research is the development of tools to identify individuals at high risk of dementia. This is important to prevent or delay dementia onset and as we move towards personalized medicine. Numerous models (n > 50) for predicting dementia have been developed. These vary in the number (0 to 20+) and type (e.g. demographics, health, neuropsychological, and genetic) of predictor variables used for risk calculation, follow-up length (1-20 years) and age at screening (mid vs laterlife). Evaluation of the models shows that most have moderate-to-poor predictive accuracy. Few have been externally validated, raising questions about their generalizability outside the cohorts from which they were developed. The results highlight that if additional models are proposed the field will be overwhelmed with many competing risk models, making it difficult to reach consensus on which is best. Numerous models for predicting dementia have been proposed but are limited by a lack of external validation and evaluation of economic impact. Innovative methods and data designs may be needed to improve derivation of dementia risk scores. Having a method for predicting dementia risk could transform medical research and allow for earlier testing of intervention strategies.

  9. Risk factors for persistent diarrhoea.

    PubMed

    Shahid, N S; Sack, D A; Rahman, M; Alam, A N; Rahman, N

    1988-10-22

    With a systematically sampled population of children aged under 5 attending this centre for diarrhoeal disease research during 1983-5 a retrospective analysis of persistent diarrhoea (defined as greater than 14 days' duration) was performed to identify the possible risk factors for this syndrome. Of the 4155 children included in the analysis, 410 (10%) gave a history of persistent diarrhoea. A comparison with children with acute diarrhoea matched for age showed that 11 factors were correlated with persistent diarrhoea, and strongly associated factors were stools with blood or mucus, or both, lower respiratory tract infection, malnutrition, vitamin A deficiency, and antibiotic use before presentation. The peak age was 2 years, and there was no sex difference. Deaths occurred more often in the group with persistent diarrhoea. Although Shigella spp, Campylobacter jejuni, and Giardia lamblia were frequently identified, their rates of isolation were not significantly higher among patients with persistent diarrhoea. No seasonal variation was observed in the rates of persistent diarrhoea. Although the introduction of family food to the diet was associated with higher rates, this factor was difficult to separate from the age dependent risks.

  10. Obesity and related risk factors.

    PubMed

    Mozaffari, H; Nabaei, B

    2007-03-01

    To study the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Iranian schoolgirls and to identify risk factors which lead to obesity. This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2002 and a sample of 1800 female students between 7-12 years old was obtained using a multistage cluster sampling method from Tehran. Height and weight were measured and related socio-economic information was collected. The overall percent of overweight and obesity was 13.3% and 7.7% respectively. BMI (Body Mass Index) was directly and significantly(r=+0.28, P< 0.001) correlated with increasing age. Physical activity was significantly different between obese and non-obese children. (P=0.03) Also, economical factors such as the type of school (private&public) were different in these children. (P=0.03) The statistical analysis of the data revealed a significant and inverse correlation(r=-0.03, P=0.04) between maternal education and occurrence of overweight and obesity in children. The prevalence of overweight and obesity in young Iranian girls was high. Advanced age, lack of physical inactivity, low economical factors and maternal educational status could be risk factors for obesity in children.

  11. Risk factors for persistent diarrhoea.

    PubMed Central

    Shahid, N. S.; Sack, D. A.; Rahman, M.; Alam, A. N.; Rahman, N.

    1988-01-01

    With a systematically sampled population of children aged under 5 attending this centre for diarrhoeal disease research during 1983-5 a retrospective analysis of persistent diarrhoea (defined as greater than 14 days' duration) was performed to identify the possible risk factors for this syndrome. Of the 4155 children included in the analysis, 410 (10%) gave a history of persistent diarrhoea. A comparison with children with acute diarrhoea matched for age showed that 11 factors were correlated with persistent diarrhoea, and strongly associated factors were stools with blood or mucus, or both, lower respiratory tract infection, malnutrition, vitamin A deficiency, and antibiotic use before presentation. The peak age was 2 years, and there was no sex difference. Deaths occurred more often in the group with persistent diarrhoea. Although Shigella spp, Campylobacter jejuni, and Giardia lamblia were frequently identified, their rates of isolation were not significantly higher among patients with persistent diarrhoea. No seasonal variation was observed in the rates of persistent diarrhoea. Although the introduction of family food to the diet was associated with higher rates, this factor was difficult to separate from the age dependent risks. PMID:3142603

  12. What Are the Risk Factors for Eye Cancer?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Causes, Risk Factors, and Prevention What Are the Risk Factors for Eye Cancer? A risk factor is ... may have few or no known risk factors. Risk factors for eye melanoma Race/ethnicity The risk ...

  13. A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

    2016-01-01

    Objective Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. Methods 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. Results There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75–0.88). Interpretations The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies. PMID:27802296

  14. Cumulative Family Risk Predicts Sibling Adjustment to Childhood Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Long, Kristin A.; Marsland, Anna L.; Alderfer, Melissa A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Prolonged, intensive treatment regimens often disrupt families of children with cancer. Siblings are at increased risk for distress, but factors underlying this risk have received limited empirical attention. This study examined associations between the family context and sibling distress. Methods Siblings of children with cancer (ages 8–18, N=209) and parents (186 mothers, 70 fathers) completed measures of sibling distress, family functioning, parenting, and parent posttraumatic stress. Associations between sibling distress and each family risk factor were evaluated. Then, family risks were considered simultaneously by calculating cumulative family risk index scores. Results After controlling for socio-demographic covariates, greater sibling distress was associated with more sibling-reported problems with family functioning and parental psychological control, lower sibling-reported maternal acceptance, and lower paternal self-reported acceptance. When risk factors were considered together, results supported a quadratic model in which associations between family risk and sibling distress were stronger at higher levels of risk. Conclusions Findings support a contextual model of sibling adjustment to childhood cancer in which elevated distress is predicted by family risk factors, alone and in combination. PMID:23576115

  15. Dosimetric parameters as predictive factors for biochemical control in patients with higher risk prostate cancer treated with Pd-103 and supplemental beam radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Orio, Peter; Wallner, Kent . E-mail: kent.Wallner@med.va.gov; Merrick, Gregory; Herstein, Andrew; Mitsuyama, Paul; Thornton, Ken; Butler, Wayne; Sutlief, Steven

    2007-02-01

    Purpose: To analyze the role of dosimetric quality parameters in maximizing cancer eradication in higher risk prostate cancer patients treated with palladium (Pd)-103 and supplemental beam radiation. Methods: One-hundred-seventy-nine patients treated with Pd-103 and supplemental beam radiation, with minimum 2 years follow-up prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values and posttreatment computed tomography scans were analyzed. Dosimetric parameters included the V100 (percent of the postimplant volume covered by the prescription dose), the D90 (the minimum dose that covered 90% of the post implant volume), and the treatment margins (the radial distance between the prostatic edge and the prescription isodose). Treatment margins (TMs) were calculated using premarket software. Results: Freedom from biochemical failure was 79% at 3 years, with 92 of the 179 patients (51%) followed beyond 3 years. In comparing patients who did or did not achieve biochemical control, the most striking differences were in biologic factors of pretreatment PSA and Gleason score. The V100, D90, and average TM all showed nonsignificant trends to higher values in patients with biochemical control. In multivariate analysis of each of the three dosimetric parameters against PSA and Gleason score, TM showed the strongest correlation with biochemical control (p = 0.19). Conclusions: For patients with intermediate and high-risk prostate cancer treated with Pd-103 brachytherapy and external beam radiation, biologic factors (PSA and Gleason score) were the most important determinants of cancer eradication. However, there is a trend to better outcomes among patients with higher quality implant parameters, suggesting that attention to implant quality will maximize the likelihood of cure.

  16. A comparison of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations and BMI in predicting body fatness and cardiovascular disease risk factor levels in children1234

    PubMed Central

    Horlick, Mary; Berenson, Gerald S

    2013-01-01

    Background: Although estimation of percentage body fat with the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations (PBFSlaughter) is widely used, the accuracy of this method has not been well studied. Objective: The objective was to determine the accuracy of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations. Design: We compared agreement between PBFSlaughter and estimations derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (PBFDXA) in 1169 children in the Pediatric Rosetta Body Composition Project and the relation to cardiovascular disease risk factors, as compared with body mass index (BMI), in 6725 children in the Bogalusa Heart Study. Results: PBFSlaughter was highly correlated (r = 0.90) with PBFDXA, but it markedly overestimated levels of PBFDXA in children with large skinfold thicknesses. In the 65 boys with a sum of skinfold thicknesses (subscapular- plus triceps-skinfold thicknesses) ≥50 mm, PBFSlaughter overestimated PBFDXA by 12 percentage points. The comparable overestimation in girls with a high skinfold sum was 6 percentage points. We also found that, after adjustment for sex and age, BMI showed slightly stronger associations with lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values than did PBFSlaughter. Conclusions: These results indicate that PBFSlaughter, which was developed among a group of much thinner children and adolescents, is fairly accurate among nonobese children, but markedly overestimates the body fatness of children who have thick skinfold thicknesses. Furthermore, PBFSlaughter has no advantage over sex- and age-adjusted BMIs at identifying children who are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease based on lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values. PMID:24153344

  17. Does Erectile Dysfunction Contribute to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction beyond the Framingham Risk Score?

    PubMed Central

    Araujo, Andre B.; Hall, Susan A.; Ganz, Peter; Chiu, Gretchen R.; Rosen, Raymond C.; Kupelian, Varant; Travison, Thomas G.; McKinlay, John B.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine whether erectile dysfunction (ED) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) beyond traditional risk factors. Background ED and CVD share pathophysiological mechanisms and often co-occur. It is unknown whether ED improves the prediction of CVD beyond traditional risk factors. Methods This was a prospective, population-based study of 1,709 men (of 3,258 eligible) aged 40–70 years. ED was measured by self-report. Subjects were followed for CVD for an average follow-up of 11.7 years. The association between ED and CVD was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The discriminatory capability of ED was examined using c statistics. The reclassification of CVD risk associated with ED was assessed using a method that quantifies net reclassification improvement. Results 1,057 men with complete risk factor data who were free of CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. During follow-up, 261 new cases of CVD occurred. ED was associated with CVD incidence controlling for age (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.42 (95% Confidence Interval (CI)): 1.05, 1.90), age and traditional CVD risk factors (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.90), as well as age and Framingham risk score (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04–1.88). Despite these significant findings, ED did not significantly improve the prediction of CVD incidence beyond traditional risk factors. Conclusions Independent of established CVD risk factors, ED is significantly associated with increased CVD incidence. Nonetheless, ED does not improve the prediction of who will and will not develop CVD beyond that offered by traditional risk factors. PMID:20117441

  18. Risk factors associated with lambing traits.

    PubMed

    McHugh, N; Berry, D P; Pabiou, T

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to establish the risk factors associated with both lambing difficulty and lamb mortality in the Irish sheep multibreed population. A total of 135 470 lambing events from 42 675 ewes in 839 Irish crossbred and purebred flocks were available. Risk factors associated with producer-scored ewe lambing difficulty score (scale of one (no difficulty) to four (severe difficulty)) were determined using linear mixed models. Risk factors associated with the logit of the probability of lamb mortality at birth (i.e. binary trait) were determined using generalised estimating equations. For each dependent variable, a series of simple regression models were developed as well as a multiple regression model. In the simple regression models, greater lambing difficulty was associated with quadruplet bearing, younger ewes, of terminal breed origin, lambing in February; for example, first parity ewes experienced greater (P7.0 kg) birth weights, quadruplet born lambs and lambs that experienced a more difficult lambing (predicted probability of death for lambs that required severe and veterinary assistance of 0.15 and 0.32, respectively); lambs from dual-purpose breeds and born to younger ewes were also at greater risk of mortality. In the multiple regression model, the association between ewe parity, age at first lambing, year of lambing and lamb mortality no longer persisted. The trend in solutions of the levels of each fixed effect that remained associated with lamb mortality in the multiple regression model, did not differ from the trends observed in the simple regression models although the differential in relative risk between the different lambing difficulty scores was greater in the multiple regression model. Results from this study show that many common flock- and animal-level factors are associated with both lambing difficulty and lamb mortality and management of different risk category groups (e.g. scanned litter sizes, ewe age groups) can be used

  19. Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

    PubMed

    Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk.

  20. Changes in Physical Fitness Predict Improvements in Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Independently of Body Weight Loss in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Participating in the Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study (IDES)

    PubMed Central

    Balducci, Stefano; Zanuso, Silvano; Cardelli, Patrizia; Salvi, Laura; Mazzitelli, Giulia; Bazuro, Alessandra; Iacobini, Carla; Nicolucci, Antonio; Pugliese, Giuseppe

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Physical fitness is inversely related to mortality in the general population and in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Here, we present data concerning the relationship between changes in physical fitness and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with type 2 diabetes from the Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Sedentary patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 606) were enrolled in 22 outpatient diabetes clinics and randomized to twice-a-week supervised aerobic and resistance training plus exercise counseling versus counseling alone for 12 months. Baseline to end-of-study changes in cardiorespiratory fitness, strength, and flexibility, as assessed by Vo2max estimation, a 5–8 maximal repetition test, and a hip/trunk flexibility test, respectively, were calculated in the whole cohort, and multiple regression analyses were applied to assess the relationship with cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS Changes in Vo2max, upper and lower body strength, and flexibility were significantly associated with the variation in the volume of physical activity, HbA1c, BMI, waist circumference, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), coronary heart disease (CHD) risk score, and inversely, HDL cholesterol. Changes in fitness predicted improvements in HbA1c, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, hs-CRP, and CHD risk score, independent of study arm, BMI, and in case of strength, also waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS Physical activity/exercise-induced increases in fitness, particularly muscular, predict improvements in cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with type 2 diabetes independently of weight loss, thus indicating the need for targeting fitness in these individuals, particularly in subjects who struggle to lose weight. PMID:22399699

  1. Baseline factors predicting the risk of conversion from ocular hypertension to primary open-angle glaucoma during a 10-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Salvetat, M L; Zeppieri, M; Tosoni, C; Brusini, P

    2016-06-01

    PurposeTo evaluate the ability of baseline clinical, morphological, and functional factors to predict the conversion to primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in ocular hypertensive (OHT) patients.MethodsThis single-center prospective longitudinal observational study included 116 eyes of 116 OHT patients followed for a 10-year period. All patients had intraocular pressure (IOP) ≥24 mm Hg in one eye and >21 mm Hg in the other eye, normal visual fields (VFs) and normal optic disc (OD) appearance in both eyes at baseline. All OHT patients were untreated at baseline with subsequent treatment upon need according to clinical judgement. Only one eye per subject was randomly selected. Patient age, gender, IOP, central corneal thickness (CCT), and ibopamine test results were collected at baseline. All patients underwent standard automated perimetry, short-wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP), frequency-doubling technology, confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (CSLO), and scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) at baseline and every 6 months thereafter. Main outcome measure was the conversion to POAG, defined as the development of reproducible VF and/or OD abnormalities attributable to glaucoma. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the baseline factors predictive of POAG conversion.ResultsDuring the 10-year follow-up, 25% of eyes converted to POAG. In multivariate Cox models, baseline factors that were significant predictors of POAG development included: older age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.0, 99% confidence intervals (CIs) 1.0-1.2, per 1 year older); SWAP Glaucoma Hemifield test 'outside normal limits' (HR 4.3, 99% CIs 1.2-17.9); greater SLP 'Inter-eye Symmetry' (HR 1.1, 99% CIs 0.4-3.0, per 1 unit lower); lower CSLO Rim Volume (HR 1.1, 99% CIs 0.3-3.2, per 0.1 mm(3) lower); and greater CSLO cup-to-disc ratio (HR 6.0, 99% CIs 3.6-16.8, per 0.1 unit greater).ConclusionsThe baseline parameters that proved to be useful in assessing the likelihood of an OHT

  2. Characteristics Predicting Tuberculosis Risk under Tumor Necrosis Factor-α Inhibitors: Report from a Large Multicenter Cohort with High Background Prevalence.

    PubMed

    Kisacik, Bunyamin; Pamuk, Omer Nuri; Onat, Ahmet Mesut; Erer, Sait Burak; Hatemi, Gulen; Ozguler, Yesim; Pehlivan, Yavuz; Kilic, Levent; Ertenli, Ihsan; Can, Meryem; Direskeneli, Haner; Keser, Gökhan; Oksel, Fahrettin; Dalkilic, Ediz; Yilmaz, Sedat; Pay, Salih; Balkarli, Ayse; Cobankara, Veli; Cetin, Gözde Yildirim; Sayarlioglu, Mehmet; Cefle, Ayse; Yazici, Ayten; Avci, Ali Berkant; Terzioglu, Ender; Ozbek, Suleyman; Akar, Servet; Gul, Ahmet

    2016-03-01

    Screening strategies for latent tuberculosis (TB) before starting tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors have decreased the prevalence of TB among patients who are treated with these agents. However, despite vigilant screening, TB continues to be an important problem, especially in parts of the world with a high background TB prevalence. The aim of this study was to determine the factors related to TB among a large multicenter cohort of patients who were treated with anti-TNF. Fifteen rheumatology centers participated in this study. Among the 10,434 patients who were treated with anti-TNF between September 2002 and September 2012, 73 (0.69%) had developed TB. We described the demographic features and disease characteristics of these 73 patients and compared them to 7695 patients who were treated with anti-TNF, did not develop TB, and had complete data available. Among the 73 patients diagnosed with TB (39 men, 34 women, mean age 43.6 ± 13 yrs), the most frequent diagnoses were ankylosing spondylitis (n = 38) and rheumatoid arthritis (n = 25). More than half of the patients had extrapulmonary TB (39/73, 53%). Six patients died (8.2%). In the logistic regression model, types of anti-TNF drugs [infliximab (IFX), OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.88-6.10, p = 0.001] and insufficient and irregular isoniazid use (< 9 mos; OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.43-6.9, p = 0.004) were independent predictors of TB development. Our results suggest that TB is an important complication of anti-TNF therapies in Turkey. TB chemoprophylaxis less than 9 months and the use of IFX therapy were independent risk factors for TB development.

  3. [Risk factors for birth injuries].

    PubMed

    García, Heladia; Rubio-Espíritu, Jorge; Islas-Rodríguez, Maria Teresa

    2006-01-01

    To identify risk factors associated with birth trauma. Servicio de Neonatología, Hospital General "Dr. Manuel Gea González", Secretaría de Salud. Case-control, prolective study. There were 129 cases and 134 controls. We recorded the following variables: a) maternal and delivery: age, weight, height, prenatal care, pre-existing disease or gestational disease, mode of delivery, anesthetic management during labor, use of external maneuvers or forceps; b) newborn: birth weight, gestational age, academic degree of attendant physician at delivery, and type of birth injury. The independent risk factors associated to birth injury were: for ecchymoses; general anesthesia (OR 13.7, 95% CI = 3 - 62.6), breech presentation (OR 6.4, 95% IC 95% = 1.4 - 27.9) and gestational age < or = 32 weeks (OR 6.4, 95% CI = 1.3 - 31.1); for lacerations, vaginal dystocic delivery or cesarean section (OR 19, 95% CI = 4.4 - 81.1) and use of external maneuvers (OR 5.6, 95% CI = 1.5 - 21.6); for cephalhematoma maternal height < or = 1.54 m (OR 7.4, 95% CI = 2.3 - 23.7) and external maneuvers (OR 7.2, 95% CI = 2.3 - 23.7); for caput succedaneum, external maneuvers (OR 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5-7.7) and maternal age < or = 19 or > or = 36 years (OR 3.0, 95% CI = 1.4 - 6.4). Risk factors associated with birth injuries identified in this study involved maternal conditions, neonatal conditions and mechanism of delivery.

  4. Modifications of Coronary Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Albu, Jeanine; Gottlieb, Sheldon H.; August, Phyllis; Nesto, Richard W.; Orchard, Trevor J.

    2009-01-01

    In addition to the revascularization and glycemic management interventions assigned at random, the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) design includes the uniform control of major coronary artery disease risk factors, including dyslipidemia, hypertension, smoking, central obesity, and sedentary lifestyle. Target levels for risk factors were adjusted throughout the trial to comply with changes in recommended clinical practice guidelines. At present, the goals are low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <2.59 mmol/L (<100 mg/dL) with an optional goal of <1.81 mmol/L (<70 mg/dL); plasma triglyceride level <1.70 mmol/L (<150 mg/dL); blood pressure level <130 mm Hg systolic and <80 mm Hg diastolic; and smoking cessation treatment for all active smokers. Algorithms were developed for the pharmacologic management of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Dietary prescriptions for the management of glycemia, plasma lipid profiles, and blood pressure levels were adapted from existing clinical practice guidelines. Patients with a body mass index >25 were prescribed moderate caloric restriction; after the trial was under way, a lifestyle weight-management program was instituted. All patients were formally prescribed both endurance and resistance/flexibility exercises, individually adapted to their level of disability and fitness. Pedometers were distributed as a biofeedback strategy. Strategies to achieve the goals for risk factors were designed by BARI 2D working groups (lipid, cardiovascular and hypertension, and nonpharmacologic intervention) and the ongoing implementation of the strategies is monitored by lipid, hypertension, and lifestyle intervention management centers. PMID:16813737

  5. A 64,489-patient full-disclosure database of cardiovascular risk factors and events status analysed in a Bayesian framework: a unique contribution to predictive science.

    PubMed

    Dehbi, Hakim-Moulay; Francis, Darrel P

    2013-04-30

    Today in the International Journal of Cardiology Liu et al. [1] publish an unusual exercise in open science which should set a pioneering trend for future knowledge sharing. They present both the principle and a large fully-analysed real world dataset to show how Bayesian reasoning can be practically helpful for clinicians at the front line. The Bayesian approach differs from the frequentist approach that is more commonly seen in reports of clinical research. Instead of a probability having a single point estimate and confidence interval, it instead has a complete probability density function. For Bayesian analysis in general, instead of there being no information before a particular study, there is some information--the "prior". The difference is that while the frequentist approach assumes that before the study all probabilities are equally plausible, the Bayesian approach recognises that even before the study, some probabilities are more likely than others. Therefore, after the study, the Bayesian approach produces a new distribution of the probability--the "posterior"--which incorporates both the raw study results and the prior distribution. Bayesian approaches are routinely used in medical decision-making and everyday life, perhaps without even realising it. Clinical test results are rarely interpreted in isolation. Instead, the background clinical belief of plausibility of various diagnoses (the prior) is updated in light of test results, to form a new set of beliefs (the posterior). We more readily accept assertions that are within the range of our prior beliefs than those that substantially contradict those beliefs. To build a model of cardiovascular risk, the Bayesian approach begins with an assumed distribution for the risk depending on the risk factors and progressively updates it with the experience of patients and their outcomes. Each additional patient makes a contribution to the model's knowledge. Then the model can be applied to any individual, and

  6. Environmental Risk Factors for ARDS

    PubMed Central

    Moazed, Farzad; Calfee, Carolyn S.

    2014-01-01

    The acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. Over the past several decades, alcohol abuse and cigarette smoke exposure have been identified as risk factors for the development of ARDS. The mechanisms underlying these relationships are complex and remain under investigation but are thought to involve pulmonary immune impairment as well as alveolar epithelial and endothelial dysfunction. This review summarizes the epidemiologic data supporting links between these exposures and ARDS susceptibility and outcomes and highlights key mechanistic investigations that provide insight into the pathways by which each exposure is linked to ARDS. PMID:25453414

  7. Risk factors for local recurrence of fibromatosis.

    PubMed

    Machado, V; Troncoso, S; Mejías, L; Idoate, M Á; San-Julián, M

    To evaluate the clinical, radiological and histological factors that can predict local recurrence of fibromatosis. A retrospective study was conducted on 51 patients diagnosed with fibromatosis in this hospital from 1983 to 2014. The mean follow-up was 83 months. A study was made of the clinical parameters, location, depth, size, surgical margins, and proliferation index (Ki-67). An evaluation was also made of the risk of recurrence depending on the adjuvant treatment and the relationship between treatment and patient functionality. Tumour location and depth were identified as risk factors for local recurrence, showing statistically significant differences (P<.001 and P=.003, respectively). There were no statistically significant differences in age, gender, size, surgical margins, or adjuvant treatments, or in the Musculoskeletal Tumour Society Score according to the treatment received. The mean Ki-67 was 1.9% (range 1-4), and its value was not associated with the risk of recurrence. Deep fibromatosis fascia tumours, and those located in extremities are more aggressive than superficial tumours and those located in trunk. The Ki-67 has no predictive value in local recurrence of fibromatosis. Radiotherapy, chemotherapy, or other adjuvant treatments such as tamoxifen have not been effective in local control of the disease. Given the high recurrence rate, even with adequate margins, a wait and see attitude should be considered in asymptomatic patients and/or stable disease. Copyright © 2017 SECOT. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting neutropenia risk in patients with cancer using electronic data.

    PubMed

    Pawloski, Pamala A; Thomas, Avis J; Kane, Sheryl; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Shapiro, Gary R; Lyman, Gary H

    2017-04-01

    Clinical guidelines recommending the use of myeloid growth factors are largely based on the prescribed chemotherapy regimen. The guidelines suggest that oncologists consider patient-specific characteristics when prescribing granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis; however, a mechanism to quantify individual patient risk is lacking. Readily available electronic health record (EHR) data can provide patient-specific information needed for individualized neutropenia risk estimation. An evidence-based, individualized neutropenia risk estimation algorithm has been developed. This study evaluated the automated extraction of EHR chemotherapy treatment data and externally validated the neutropenia risk prediction model. A retrospective cohort of adult patients with newly diagnosed breast, colorectal, lung, lymphoid, or ovarian cancer who received the first cycle of a cytotoxic chemotherapy regimen from 2008 to 2013 were recruited from a single cancer clinic. Electronically extracted EHR chemotherapy treatment data were validated by chart review. Neutropenia risk stratification was conducted and risk model performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination. Chemotherapy treatment data electronically extracted from the EHR were verified by chart review. The neutropenia risk prediction tool classified 126 patients (57%) as being low risk for febrile neutropenia, 44 (20%) as intermediate risk, and 51 (23%) as high risk. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test = 0.24). Discrimination was adequate and slightly less than in the original internal validation (c-statistic 0.75 vs 0.81). Chemotherapy treatment data were electronically extracted from the EHR successfully. The individualized neutropenia risk prediction model performed well in our retrospective external cohort.

  9. Inferring the Interactions of Risk Factors from EHRs.

    PubMed

    Goodwin, Travis; Harabagiu, Sanda M

    2016-01-01

    The wealth of clinical information provided by the advent of electronic health records offers an exciting opportunity to improve the quality of patient care. Of particular importance are the risk factors, which indicate possible diagnoses, and the medications which treat them. By analysing which risk factors and medications were mentioned at different times in patients' EHRs, we are able to construct a patient's clinical chronology. This chronology enables us to not only predict how new patient's risk factors may progress, but also to discover patterns of interactions between risk factors and medications. We present a novel probabilistic model of patients' clinical chronologies and demonstrate how this model can be used to (1) predict the way a new patient's risk factors may evolve over time, (2) identify patients with irregular chronologies, and (3) discovering the interactions between pairs of risk factors, and between risk factors and medications over time. Moreover, the model proposed in this paper does not rely on (nor specify) any prior knowledge about any interactions between the risk factors and medications it represents. Thus, our model can be easily applied to any arbitrary set of risk factors and medications derived from a new dataset.

  10. Inferring the Interactions of Risk Factors from EHRs

    PubMed Central

    Goodwin, Travis; Harabagiu, Sanda M.

    2016-01-01

    The wealth of clinical information provided by the advent of electronic health records offers an exciting opportunity to improve the quality of patient care. Of particular importance are the risk factors, which indicate possible diagnoses, and the medications which treat them. By analysing which risk factors and medications were mentioned at different times in patients’ EHRs, we are able to construct a patient’s clinical chronology. This chronology enables us to not only predict how new patient’s risk factors may progress, but also to discover patterns of interactions between risk factors and medications. We present a novel probabilistic model of patients’ clinical chronologies and demonstrate how this model can be used to (1) predict the way a new patient’s risk factors may evolve over time, (2) identify patients with irregular chronologies, and (3) discovering the interactions between pairs of risk factors, and between risk factors and medications over time. Moreover, the model proposed in this paper does not rely on (nor specify) any prior knowledge about any interactions between the risk factors and medications it represents. Thus, our model can be easily applied to any arbitrary set of risk factors and medications derived from a new dataset. PMID:27595044

  11. Predicting relapse risk in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Teachey, David T; Hunger, Stephen P

    2013-09-01

    Intensive multi-agent chemotherapy regimens and the introduction of risk-stratified therapy have substantially improved cure rates for children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Current risk allocation schemas are imperfect, as some children are classified as lower-risk and treated with less intensive therapy relapse, while others deemed higher-risk are probably over-treated. Most cooperative groups previously used morphological clearance of blasts in blood and marrow during the initial phases of chemotherapy as a primary factor for risk group allocation; however, this has largely been replaced by the detection of minimal residual disease (MRD). Other than age and white blood cell count (WBC) at presentation, many clinical variables previously used for risk group allocation are no longer prognostic, as MRD and the presence of sentinel genetic lesions are more reliable at predicting outcome. Currently, a number of sentinel genetic lesions are used by most cooperative groups for risk stratification; however, in the near future patients will probably be risk-stratified using genomic signatures and clustering algorithms, rather than individual genetic alterations. This review will describe the clinical, biological, and response-based features known to predict relapse risk in childhood ALL, including those currently used and those likely to be used in the near future to risk-stratify therapy.

  12. A comparison of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations and BMI in predicting body fatness and cardiovascular disease risk factor levels in children.

    PubMed

    Freedman, David S; Horlick, Mary; Berenson, Gerald S

    2013-12-01

    Although estimation of percentage body fat with the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations (PBF(Slaughter)) is widely used, the accuracy of this method has not been well studied. The objective was to determine the accuracy of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations. We compared agreement between PBF(Slaughter) and estimations derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (PBF(DXA)) in 1169 children in the Pediatric Rosetta Body Composition Project and the relation to cardiovascular disease risk factors, as compared with body mass index (BMI), in 6725 children in the Bogalusa Heart Study. PBF(Slaughter) was highly correlated (r = 0.90) with PBF(DXA), but it markedly overestimated levels of PBF(DXA) in children with large skinfold thicknesses. In the 65 boys with a sum of skinfold thicknesses (subscapular- plus triceps-skinfold thicknesses) ≥ 50 mm, PBF(Slaughter) overestimated PBF(DXA) by 12 percentage points. The comparable overestimation in girls with a high skinfold sum was 6 percentage points. We also found that, after adjustment for sex and age, BMI showed slightly stronger associations with lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values than did PBF(Slaughter). These results indicate that PBF(Slaughter), which was developed among a group of much thinner children and adolescents, is fairly accurate among nonobese children, but markedly overestimates the body fatness of children who have thick skinfold thicknesses. Furthermore, PBF(Slaughter) has no advantage over sex- and age-adjusted BMIs at identifying children who are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease based on lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values.

  13. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    PubMed

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism.

  14. Women's Heart Disease: Heart Disease Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Women's Heart Disease Heart Disease Risk Factors Past Issues / Winter 2014 Table ... or habits may raise your risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). These conditions are known as risk ...

  15. Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes

    Cancer.gov

    In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

  16. Heart Disease Risk Factors You Can Control

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Stroke Heart disease risk factors you can control Did you know? In women, high triglycerides combined ... information on Heart disease risk factors you can control Read more from womenshealth.gov Heart Disease Fact ...

  17. Risk Factors and Causes of Syncope

    MedlinePlus

    ... Causes of Sy... Back to Fainting Risk Factors & Causes of Syncope Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Syncope The ... heart. LQTS is believed to be a common cause of sudden and unexplained death in children and ...

  18. Exploring Dynamic Risk Prediction for Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Ganssauge, Malte; Padman, Rema; Teredesai, Pradip; Karambelkar, Ameet

    2016-01-01

    Despite substantial advances in the treatment of end-stage renal disease, mortality of hemodialysis patients remains high. Several models exist that predict mortality for this population and identify patients at risk. However, they mostly focus on patients at a particular stage of dialysis treatment, such as start of dialysis, and only use the most recent patient data. Generalization of such models for predictions in later periods can be challenging since disease characteristics change over time and the evolution of biomarkers is not adequately incorporated. In this research, we explore dynamic methods which allow updates of initial predictions when patients progress in time and new data is observed. We compare a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to regularized logistic regression models and a Cox model with landmarking. Our preliminary results indicate that the DBN achieves satisfactory performance for short term prediction horizons, but needs further refinement and parameter tuning for longer horizons. PMID:28269937

  19. Falls risk prediction tools for hospital inpatients: do they work?

    PubMed

    Oliver, David; Healy, Frances

    A fall is the most reported safety incident in inpatients and occurs in all adult clinical areas. There is growing interest in prevention strategies and, as part of this, in risk assessment tools. These may be useful if the aim is to flag up common risk factors or causes of falls and prompt interventions that are actually delivered. Tools that claim to predict patients' risk of falling as 'high' or 'low' do not work well and may provide false reassurance that 'something is being done'. Falls prevention should focus on a wider range of actions at the level of patients and across organisations.

  20. Individualized Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer in Korean Men

    PubMed Central

    Park, Sohee; Nam, Byung-Ho; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Lee, Ji An; Lim, Hyunsun; Han, Jun Tae; Park, Il Su; Shin, Hai-Rim; Lee, Jin Soo

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Korea. The objective of the present study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men using population-based cohort data. Methods From a population-based cohort study of 1,324,804 Korean men free of cancer at baseline, the individualized absolute risk of developing lung cancer was estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. We checked the validity of the model using C statistics and the Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square test on an external validation dataset. Results The risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men included smoking exposure, age at smoking initiation, body mass index, physical activity, and fasting glucose levels. The model showed excellent performance (C statistic = 0.871, 95% CI = 0.867–0.876). Smoking was significantly associated with the risk of lung cancer in Korean men, with a four-fold increased risk in current smokers consuming more than one pack a day relative to non-smokers. Age at smoking initiation was also a significant predictor for developing lung cancer; a younger age at initiation was associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer. Conclusion This is the first study to provide an individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in an Asian population with very good model performance. In addition to current smoking status, earlier exposure to smoking was a very important factor for developing lung cancer. Since most of the risk factors are modifiable, this model can be used to identify those who are at a higher risk and who can subsequently modify their lifestyle choices to lower their risk of lung cancer. PMID:23408946

  1. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia

    PubMed Central

    Collaboration, Asia Pacific Cohort Studies

    2007-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. Objective To compare “low‐information” equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Design Separate equations to predict the 8‐year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently “recalibrated” Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Setting Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. Participants 172 077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25 682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. Main results In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow‐up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver–operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non‐Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. Interpretation A low‐information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with

  2. Risk factors associated with psychiatric readmission.

    PubMed

    Lorine, Kim; Goenjian, Haig; Kim, Soeun; Steinberg, Alan M; Schmidt, Kendall; Goenjian, Armen K

    2015-06-01

    The present study focused on identifying risk factors for early readmission of patients discharged from an urban community hospital. Retrospective chart reviews were conducted on 207 consecutive inpatient psychiatric admissions that included patients who were readmitted within 15 days, within 3 to 6 months, and not admitted for at least 12 months post-discharge. Findings indicated that a diagnosis of schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder (OR = 18; 95% CI 2.70-117.7; p < 0.05), history of alcohol abuse (OR = 9; 95% CI 1.80-40.60; p < 0.05), number of previous psychiatric hospitalizations (OR = 2; 95% CI 1.28-3.73; p < 0.05), and type of residence at initial admission (e.g., homeless, OR = 29; 95% CI 3.99-217; p < 0.05) were significant risk factors for early readmission, where OR compares readmission group 1 versus group 3 in the multinomial logistic regression. Initial positive urine drug screen, history of drug abuse or incarceration, and legal status at initial admission did not predict early readmission. Reducing the risk factors associated with psychiatric readmissions has the potential to lead to the identification and development of preventative intervention strategies that can significantly improve patient safety, quality of care, well-being, and contain health care expenditures.

  3. PBSC mobilization in lymphoma patients: analysis of risk factors for collection failure and development of a predictive score based on the kinetics of circulating CD34+ cells and WBC after chemotherapy and G-CSF mobilization.

    PubMed

    Rossi, Giuseppe; Skert, Cristina; Morello, Enrico; Almici, Camillo; Arcaini, Luca; Basilico, Claudia; Cavalli, Lara; Botto, Barbara; Castelli, Andrea; Pica, Gianmatteo; Ripamonti, Francesco; Salvi, Flavia; Carella, Angelo M; Gaidano, Gianluca; Levis, Alessandro; Nosari, Annamaria; Russo, Domenico; Vitolo, Umberto

    2015-09-01

    Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is a potentially curative treatment of lymphoma, but peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) mobilization fails in some patients. PBSC mobilizing agents have recently been proved to improve the PBSC yield after a prior mobilization failure. Predictive parameters of mobilization failure allowing for a preemptive, more cost-effective use of such agents during the first mobilization attempt are still poorly defined, particularly during mobilization with chemotherapy + granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF). We performed a retrospective analysis of a series of lymphoma patients who were candidates for ASCT, to identify factors influencing PBSC mobilization outcome. Premobilization parameters-age, histology, disease status, mobilizing protocol, and previous treatments-as well as white blood cell (WBC) and PBSC kinetics, markers potentially able to predict failure during the ongoing mobilization attempt, were analyzed in 415 consecutive mobilization procedures in 388 patients. We used chemotherapy + G-CSF in 411 (99%) of mobilization attempts and PBSC collection failed (<2 × 10(6) CD34+ PBSC/kg) in 13%. Multivariable analysis showed that only a low CD34+ PBSC count and CD34+ PBSC/WBC ratio, together with the use of nonplatinum-containing chemotherapy, independently predicted mobilization failure. Using these three parameters, we established a scoring system to predict risk of failure during mobilization ranging from 2 to 90%, thus allowing a selective use of a preemptive mobilization policy.

  4. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H

    2011-09-01

    We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF (q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF (p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF (q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF (p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  5. [Elevated blood pressure as cardiovascular risk factor].

    PubMed

    Kowalewski, Wiesław; Hebel, Kazimiera

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases for decades have been and still are the main and current health problem of the Polish society and there are many reasons for these diseases. Hypertension is one of the major risk factors for developing cardiovascular disease. The factors significantly increasing risk the of cardiovascular disease are in addition to high blood pressure, smoking (also passive), high blood fats (cholesterol and its HDL, LDL fractions as well as triglyceride levels, obesity, lack of exercise, diabetes and hereditary features. Other important factors which play an important role are external factors such as e.g. environmental pollution, lifestyle, stress. Prediction of cardiovascular disease should start from the evaluation of the fetal period because low birth weight may be a risk of coronary heart disease, hypertension, obesity or diabetes in adulthood. The authors of the referred tests showed that the level of blood pressure observed during childhood is closely associated with the level of blood pressure in adults and is also dependent on the body weight. Since the issue of the effects of high pressure on the cardiovascular system is inherent in the issue of the metabolic syndrome, it should be mentioned also that another causative factor may be an irregularity in the removal of urine from the body and the amou