Regional Screening Levels (RSLs) - Equations

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regional Screening Level RSL equations page provides quick access to the equations used in the Chemical Risk Assessment preliminary remediation goal PRG risk based concentration RBC and risk calculator for the assessment of human Health.

Regional Screening Levels Frequent Questions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regional Screening Level RSL frequently asked question FAQ page provides risk assessors answers to common questions about the preliminary remediation goal PRG risk based concentration RBC and risk calculator for the assessment of human Health.

Evidence-based guideline: Management of an unprovoked first seizure in adults: Report of the Guideline Development Subcommittee of the American Academy of Neurology and the American Epilepsy Society.

PubMed

Krumholz, Allan; Wiebe, Samuel; Gronseth, Gary S; Gloss, David S; Sanchez, Ana M; Kabir, Arif A; Liferidge, Aisha T; Martello, Justin P; Kanner, Andres M; Shinnar, Shlomo; Hopp, Jennifer L; French, Jacqueline A

2015-04-21

To provide evidence-based recommendations for treatment of adults with an unprovoked first seizure. We defined relevant questions and systematically reviewed published studies according to the American Academy of Neurology's classification of evidence criteria; we based recommendations on evidence level. Adults with an unprovoked first seizure should be informed that their seizure recurrence risk is greatest early within the first 2 years (21%-45%) (Level A), and clinical variables associated with increased risk may include a prior brain insult (Level A), an EEG with epileptiform abnormalities (Level A), a significant brain-imaging abnormality (Level B), and a nocturnal seizure (Level B). Immediate antiepileptic drug (AED) therapy, as compared with delay of treatment pending a second seizure, is likely to reduce recurrence risk within the first 2 years (Level B) but may not improve quality of life (Level C). Over a longer term (>3 years), immediate AED treatment is unlikely to improve prognosis as measured by sustained seizure remission (Level B). Patients should be advised that risk of AED adverse events (AEs) may range from 7% to 31% (Level B) and that these AEs are likely predominantly mild and reversible. Clinicians' recommendations whether to initiate immediate AED treatment after a first seizure should be based on individualized assessments that weigh the risk of recurrence against the AEs of AED therapy, consider educated patient preferences, and advise that immediate treatment will not improve the long-term prognosis for seizure remission but will reduce seizure risk over the subsequent 2 years. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

Regional Screening Levels (RSLs) - Equations (November 2017 )

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regional Screening Level RSL equations page provides quick access to the equations used in the Chemical Risk Assessment preliminary remediation goal PRG risk based concentration RBC and risk calculator for the assessment of human Health.

Regional Screening Levels Frequent Questions (November 2017)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regional Screening Level RSL frequently asked question FAQ page provides risk assessors answers to common questions about the preliminary remediation goal PRG risk based concentration RBC and risk calculator for the assessment of human Health.

Use of results of microbiological analyses for risk-based control of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs.

PubMed

Aarnisalo, Kaarina; Vihavainen, Elina; Rantala, Leila; Maijala, Riitta; Suihko, Maija-Liisa; Hielm, Sebastian; Tuominen, Pirkko; Ranta, Jukka; Raaska, Laura

2008-02-10

Microbial risk assessment provides a means of estimating consumer risks associated with food products. The methods can also be applied at the plant level. In this study results of microbiological analyses were used to develop a robust single plant level risk assessment. Furthermore, the prevalence and numbers of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs in Finland were estimated. These estimates were based on information on the prevalence, numbers and genotypes of L. monocytogenes in 186 marinated broiler legs from 41 retail stores. The products were from three main Finnish producers, which produce 90% of all marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The prevalence and numbers of L. monocytogenes were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, but the model is applicable to any software featuring standard probability distributions. The estimated mean annual number of L. monocytogenes-positive broiler legs sold in Finland was 7.2x10(6) with a 95% credible interval (CI) 6.7x10(6)-7.7x10(6). That would be 34%+/-1% of the marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The mean number of L. monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs estimated at the sell-by-date was 2 CFU/g, with a 95% CI of 0-14 CFU/g. Producer-specific L. monocytogenes strains were recovered from the products throughout the year, which emphasizes the importance of characterizing the isolates and identifying strains that may cause problems as part of risk assessment studies. As the levels of L. monocytogenes were low, the risk of acquiring listeriosis from these products proved to be insignificant. Consequently there was no need for a thorough national level risk assessment. However, an approach using worst-case and average point estimates was applied to produce an example of single producer level risk assessment based on limited data. This assessment also indicated that the risk from these products was low. The risk-based approach presented in this work can provide estimation of public health risk on which control measures at the plant level can be based.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

PubMed Central

DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-01-01

Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. Results PTB < 35 weeks occurred in 24,490 pregnancies (3.9%). The rate of PTB < 35 weeks was 2.8% in counties within the lowest quartile of poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p < 0.0001. High county-level poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (< 35 weeks) was increased for women who resided in counties within the highest quartile of poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (< 32 weeks), adjOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52). Conclusion Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies. PMID:18793437

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: a population-based multilevel analysis.

PubMed

DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-09-15

Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989-1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. PTB < 35 weeks occurred in 24,490 pregnancies (3.9%). The rate of PTB < 35 weeks was 2.8% in counties within the lowest quartile of poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p < 0.0001. High county-level poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (< 35 weeks) was increased for women who resided in counties within the highest quartile of poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adj OR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (< 32 weeks), adj OR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52). Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies.

Risk stratification of childhood cancer survivors necessary for evidence-based clinical long-term follow-up

PubMed Central

Frobisher, Clare; Glaser, Adam; Levitt, Gill A; Cutter, David J; Winter, David L; Lancashire, Emma R; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Guha, Joyeeta; Kelly, Julie; Reulen, Raoul C; Hawkins, Michael M

2017-01-01

Background: Reorganisation of clinical follow-up care in England was proposed by the National Cancer Survivorship Initiative (NCSI), based on cancer type and treatment, ranging from Level 1 (supported self-management) to Level 3 (consultant-led care). The objective of this study was to provide an investigation of the risks of serious adverse health-outcomes associated with NCSI Levels of clinical care using a large population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS) was used to investigate risks of specific causes of death, subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) and non-fatal non-neoplastic outcomes by NCSI Level. Results: Cumulative (excess) risks of specified adverse outcomes by 45 years from diagnosis among non-leukaemic survivors assigned to NCSI Levels 1, 2 and 3 were for: SPNs—5% (two-fold expected), 14% (four-fold expected) and 21% (eight-fold expected); non-neoplastic death—2% (two-fold expected), 4% (three-fold expected) and 8% (seven-fold expected); non-fatal non-neoplastic condition—14%, 27% and 40%, respectively. Consequently overall cumulative risks of any adverse health outcome were 21%, 45% and 69%, respectively. Conclusions: Despite its simplicity the risk stratification tool provides clear and strong discrimination between survivors assigned to different NCSI Levels in terms of long-term cumulative and excess risks of serious adverse outcomes. PMID:29065109

Sample Size for Tablet Compression and Capsule Filling Events During Process Validation.

PubMed

Charoo, Naseem Ahmad; Durivage, Mark; Rahman, Ziyaur; Ayad, Mohamad Haitham

2017-12-01

During solid dosage form manufacturing, the uniformity of dosage units (UDU) is ensured by testing samples at 2 stages, that is, blend stage and tablet compression or capsule/powder filling stage. The aim of this work is to propose a sample size selection approach based on quality risk management principles for process performance qualification (PPQ) and continued process verification (CPV) stages by linking UDU to potential formulation and process risk factors. Bayes success run theorem appeared to be the most appropriate approach among various methods considered in this work for computing sample size for PPQ. The sample sizes for high-risk (reliability level of 99%), medium-risk (reliability level of 95%), and low-risk factors (reliability level of 90%) were estimated to be 299, 59, and 29, respectively. Risk-based assignment of reliability levels was supported by the fact that at low defect rate, the confidence to detect out-of-specification units would decrease which must be supplemented with an increase in sample size to enhance the confidence in estimation. Based on level of knowledge acquired during PPQ and the level of knowledge further required to comprehend process, sample size for CPV was calculated using Bayesian statistics to accomplish reduced sampling design for CPV. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fatigue risks in the connections of sign support structures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-01

This research effort develops a reliability-based approach for prescribing inspection intervals for mast-arm sign support : structures corresponding to user-specified levels of fatigue-induced fracture risk. The resulting level of risk for a : partic...

Implementing a nationwide criteria-based emergency medical dispatch system: A register-based follow-up study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A criteria-based nationwide Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) system was recently implemented in Denmark. We described the system and studied its ability to triage patients according to the severity of their condition by analysing hospital admission and case-fatality risks. Methods This was a register-based follow-up study of all 1-1-2 calls in a 6-month period that were triaged according to the Danish Index – the new criteria-based dispatch protocol. Danish Index data were linked with hospital and vital status data from national registries. Confidence intervals (95%) for proportions with binomial data were computed using exact methods. To test for trend the Wald test was used. Results Information on level of emergency according to the Danish Index rating was available for 67,135 patients who received ambulance service. Emergency level A (urgent cases) accounted for 51.4% (n = 34,489) of patients, emergency level B for 46.3% (n = 31,116), emergency level C for 2.1% (n = 1,391) and emergency level D for 0.2% (n = 139). For emergency level A, the median time from call receipt to ambulance dispatch was 2 min 1 s, and the median time to arrival was 6 min 11 s. Data concerning admission and case fatality was available for 55,270 patients. The hospital admission risk for emergency level A patients was 64.4% (95% CI = 63.8-64.9). There was a significant trend (p < 0.001) towards lower admission risks for patients with lower levels of emergency. The case fatality risk for emergency level A patients on the same day as the 1-1-2 call was 4.4% (95% CI = 4.1-4.6). The relative case-fatality risk among emergency level A patients compared to emergency level B–D patients was 14.3 (95% CI: 11.5-18.0). Conclusion The majority of patients were assessed as Danish Index emergency level A or B. Case fatality and hospital admission risks were substantially higher for emergency level A patients than for emergency level B–D patients. Thus, the newly implemented Danish criteria-based dispatch system seems to triage patients with high risk of admission and death to the highest level of emergency. Further studies are needed to determine the degree of over- and undertriage and prognostic factors. PMID:23835246

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... defaulted loans in the data set (20.9 percent). (3) You will calculate losses by multiplying the loss rate...) Data requirements. You will use the following data to implement the risk-based capital stress test. (1) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based...

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... defaulted loans in the data set (20.9 percent). (3) You will calculate losses by multiplying the loss rate...) Data requirements. You will use the following data to implement the risk-based capital stress test. (1) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based...

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... defaulted loans in the data set (20.9 percent). (3) You will calculate losses by multiplying the loss rate...) Data requirements. You will use the following data to implement the risk-based capital stress test. (1) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based...

76 FR 70362 - Fisheries Off West Coast States; Coastal Pelagic Species Fisheries; Amendment 13 to the Coastal...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-14

... based on its preferred level of risk aversion. The ABC is based on a percentage reduction of the OFL as determined by an SSC determination on scientific uncertainty and a risk policy determined by the Council. In... Council then selects a level of risk aversion by choosing an appropriate P* value. Each P* value is then...

Family cumulative risk and at-risk kindergarteners' social competence: the mediating role of parent representations of the attachment relationship.

PubMed

Sparks, Lauren A; Trentacosta, Christopher J; Owusu, Erika; McLear, Caitlin; Smith-Darden, Joanne

2018-08-01

Secure attachment relationships have been linked to social competence in at-risk children. In the current study, we examined the role of parent secure base scripts in predicting at-risk kindergarteners' social competence. Parent representations of secure attachment were hypothesized to mediate the relationship between lower family cumulative risk and children's social competence. Participants included 106 kindergarteners and their primary caregivers recruited from three urban charter schools serving low-income families as a part of a longitudinal study. Lower levels of cumulative risk predicted greater secure attachment representations in parents, and scores on the secure base script assessment predicted children's social competence. An indirect relationship between lower cumulative risk and kindergarteners' social competence via parent secure base script scores was also supported. Parent script-based representations of the attachment relationship appear to be an important link between lower levels of cumulative risk and low-income kindergarteners' social competence. Implications of these findings for future interventions are discussed.

Health risk assessment of air emissions from a municipal solid waste incineration plant--a case study.

PubMed

Cangialosi, Federico; Intini, Gianluca; Liberti, Lorenzo; Notarnicola, Michele; Stellacci, Paolo

2008-01-01

A health risk assessment of long-term emissions of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic air pollutants has been carried out for the municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) of the city of Taranto, Italy. Ground level air concentrations and soil deposition of carcinogenic (Polychlorinated Dibenzo-p-Dioxins/Furans and Cd) and non-carcinogenic (Pb and Hg) pollutants have been estimated using a well documented atmospheric dispersion model. Health risk values for air inhalation, dermal contact, soil and food ingestion have been calculated based on a combination of these concentrations and a matrix of environmental exposure factors. Exposure of the surrounding population has been addressed for different release scenarios based on four pollutants, four exposure pathways and two receptor groups (children and adults). Spatial risk distribution and cancer excess cases projected from plant emissions have been compared with background mortality records. Estimated results based on the MSWI emissions show: (1) individual risks well below maximum acceptable levels, (2) very small incremental cancer risk compared with background level.

An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Sleight, David W.

2002-01-01

Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

PubMed Central

Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley D.; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Xue, Jianping; Subramanian, SV; Levy, Jonathan I.

2011-01-01

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. PMID:22016710

Equipment management risk rating system based on engineering endpoints.

PubMed

James, P J

1999-01-01

The equipment management risk ratings system outlined here offers two significant departures from current practice: risk classifications are based on intrinsic device risks, and the risk rating system is based on engineering endpoints. Intrinsic device risks are categorized as physical, clinical and technical, and these flow from the incoming equipment assessment process. Engineering risk management is based on verification of engineering endpoints such as clinical measurements or energy delivery. This practice eliminates the ambiguity associated with ranking risk in terms of physiologic and higher-level outcome endpoints such as no significant hazards, low significance, injury, or mortality.

Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

2017-06-01

This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

Assessment of Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) Risk for 3 Different Tasks Constructing and Repairing Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) Blankets, Preparing the Dough for a Pizza, and Operating the Becton-Dickinson FACSAria Flow Cytometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gentzler, Marc; Kline, Martin; Palmer, Andrew; Terrone, Mark

2007-01-01

The Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) risks for three different tasks using McCauley-Bell and Badiru's (1993) formula based on task, personal, and organizational factors were examined. For the Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) blanket task, the results showed that the task, personal, and organizational risks were at about the same level. The personal risk factors for this task were evaluated using a hypothetical female employee age 52. For the pizza dough task, it was shown that the organizational risk was particularly high, with task related factors also at quite dangerous levels. On the other hand, there was a very low level of personal risk factors, based on a female age 17. The flow cytometer task was assessed with three different participants, a11 of whom had quite disparate levels of personal risk, which slightly affected the overall CTD risk. This reveals how individual difference variables certainly need to be considered. The task and organizational risks for this task were rated at about the same moderate level. The overall CTD risk averaged across the three participants was .335, indicating some risk. Compruing across the tasks revealed that the pizza dough task created the greatest overall CTD risk by far (.568), with the MLI (.325) and flow cytometer task (.335) having some risk associated with them. Future research should look into different tasks for more of a comparison

[Spatiotemporal dynamic fuzzy evaluation of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary of Liaoning Province, Northeast China based on remote sensing].

PubMed

Sun, Yong-Guang; Zhao, Dong-Zhi; Zhang, Feng-Shou; Wei, Bao-Quan; Chu, Jia-Lan; Su, Xiu

2012-11-01

Based on the aerial image data of Dayang estuary in 2008, and by virtue of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) , remote sensing technology, and GIS spatial analysis, a spatiotemporal evaluation was made on the comprehensive level of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary, with the impacts of typical human activities on the dynamic variation of this comprehensive level discussed. From 1958 to 2008, the comprehensive level of the environmental pollution risk in study area presented an increasing trend. Spatially, this comprehensive level declined from land to ocean, and showed a zonal distribution. Tourism development activities unlikely led to the increase of the comprehensive level, while human inhabitation, transportation, and aquaculture would exacerbate the risk of environmental pollution. This study could provide reference for the sea area use planning, ecological function planning, and pollutants control of estuary region.

Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management.

PubMed

Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

2008-04-01

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.

12 CFR 652.80 - When you must determine the risk-based capital level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.80 When you... least quarterly, or whenever changing circumstances occur that have a significant effect on capital... activity that could have a significant effect on capital, you must determine a pro forma risk-based capital...

12 CFR 652.80 - When you must determine the risk-based capital level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.80 When you... least quarterly, or whenever changing circumstances occur that have a significant effect on capital... activity that could have a significant effect on capital, you must determine a pro forma risk-based capital...

12 CFR 652.80 - When you must determine the risk-based capital level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.80 When you... least quarterly, or whenever changing circumstances occur that have a significant effect on capital... activity that could have a significant effect on capital, you must determine a pro forma risk-based capital...

A risk-based, product-level approach for assuring aquatic environmental safety of cleaning products in the context of sustainability: The Environmental Safety Check (ESC) scheme of the A.I.S.E. Charter for Sustainable Cleaning.

PubMed

Pickup, John Alexander; Dewaele, Joost; Furmanski, Nicola L; Kowalczyk, Agnieszka; Luijkx, Gerard Ca; Mathieu, Sophie; Stelter, Norbert

2017-01-01

Cleaning products have long been a focus of efforts to improve sustainability and assure safety for the aquatic environment when disposed of after use. The latter is addressed at ingredient level through environmental risk assessment, including in formal frameworks such as REACH. Nevertheless, in the context of programs to improve overall sustainability, stakeholders demand both environmental safety assurance and progress at product level. Current product-level approaches for aquatic toxicity (e.g., USEtox™, Critical Dilution Volume) can be seen as predominantly hazard-based. The more logical approach would be risk-based, because ecotoxicity is generally threshold-dependent and hazard-based assessment produces conflicts with risk-based learnings. The development of a risk-based approach to assess formulated products is described: the International Association for Soaps, Detergents and Maintenance Products (A.I.S.E.) Charter Environmental Safety Check (ESC), which is consistent with the scientific principles underlying REACH. This is implemented through a simple spreadsheet tool and internal database of ingredient parameters including predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and removal rate. A novel feature is applying market volume information for both product types and ingredients to permit a risk-based calculation. To pass the ESC check, the projected environmental safety ratio (PESR) for each ingredient as formulated and dosed (unless cleared by a published risk assessment or exempted as inherently low risk) must be less than 1. The advantages of a risk-based approach are discussed. The strengths and limitations of various possible approaches to standard-setting, product-ranking and driving continuous improvement in respect of potential ecotoxic impacts on the aquatic environment are considered. It is proposed that as ecotoxicity is generally accepted to be threshold-dependent, with no effect below the threshold, the most constructive approach to continuous improvement of sustainability with regard to ecotoxicity is to focus efforts on instances where the safety margins for ingredients as used in specific products are narrow. This necessitates a risk-based approach. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:127-138. © 2016 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

EPA Science Inventory

Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

A Framework for Widespread Replication of a Highly Spatially Resolved Childhood Lead Exposure Risk Model

PubMed Central

Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M. Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-01-01

Background Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels < 10 μg/dL highlights the need for improved exposure prevention interventions. Objectives Geographic information system–based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. Methods We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. Results The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. Conclusions This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities. PMID:19079729

County-level job automation risk and health: Evidence from the United States.

PubMed

Patel, Pankaj C; Devaraj, Srikant; Hicks, Michael J; Wornell, Emily J

2018-04-01

Previous studies have observed a positive association between automation risk and employment loss. Based on the job insecurity-health risk hypothesis, greater exposure to automation risk could also be negatively associated with health outcomes. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the county-level association between prevalence of workers in jobs exposed to automation risk and general, physical, and mental health outcomes. As a preliminary assessment of the job insecurity-health risk hypothesis (automation risk → job insecurity → poorer health), a structural equation model was used based on individual-level data in the two cross-sectional waves (2012 and 2014) of General Social Survey (GSS). Next, using county-level data from County Health Rankings 2017, American Community Survey (ACS) 2015, and Statistics of US Businesses 2014, Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression models were fitted to predict county-level health outcomes. Using the 2012 and 2014 waves of the GSS, employees in occupational classes at higher risk of automation reported more job insecurity, that, in turn, was associated with poorer health. The 2SLS estimates show that a 10% increase in automation risk at county-level is associated with 2.38, 0.8, and 0.6 percentage point lower general, physical, and mental health, respectively. Evidence suggests that exposure to automation risk may be negatively associated with health outcomes, plausibly through perceptions of poorer job security. More research is needed on interventions aimed at mitigating negative influence of automation risk on health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of cooking on radiocesium in fish from the Savannah River: exposure differences for the public.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gaines, Karen F; Boring, C Shane; Snodgrass, J; Stephens, W L; Gochfeld, M

2004-02-01

Understanding the factors that contribute to the risk from fish consumption is an important public health concern because of potential adverse effects of radionuclides, organochlorines, other pesticides, and mercury. Risk from consumption is normally computed on the basis of contaminant levels in fish, meal frequency, and meal size, yet cooking practices may also affect risk. This study examines the effect of deep-frying on radiocesium (137Cs) levels and risk to people fishing along the Savannah River. South Carolina and Georgia have issued consumption advisories for the Savannah River, based partly on 137Cs. 137Cs levels were significantly higher in the cooked fish compared to the raw fish on a wet weight basis. Mean 137Cs levels were 0.61 pCi/g (wet weight basis) in raw fish, 0.81 pCi/g in cooked-breaded, and 0.99 pCi/g in cooked-unbreaded fish. Deep-frying with and without breading resulted in a weight loss of 25 and 39%, while 137Cs levels increased by 32 and 62%, respectively. Therefore, the differences were due mainly to weight loss during cooking. However, the data suggest that risk assessments should be based on cooked portion size for contaminant analysis, or the risk from 137Cs in fish will be underestimated. People are likely to estimate the amounts of fish they eat based on a meal size of the cooked portion, while risk assessors determine 137Cs levels in raw fish. A conversion factor of at least two for 137Cs increase during cooking is reasonable and conservative, given the variability in 137Cs levels. The data also suggest that surveys determining consumption should specifically ask about portion size before or after cooking and state which was used in their methods.

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

PubMed

Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

2017-01-01

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

Quantifying Population-Level Risks Using an Individual-Based Model: Sea Otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-01-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500 000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2012; 8: 503–522. © 2012 SETAC PMID:22275071

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

PubMed

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

PubMed

Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

2005-10-01

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Development of Rock Engineering Systems-Based Models for Flyrock Risk Analysis and Prediction of Flyrock Distance in Surface Blasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, Farhad; Mansouri, Hamid; Farsangi, Mohammad Ali Ebrahimi

2014-07-01

The environmental effects of blasting must be controlled in order to comply with regulatory limits. Because of safety concerns and risk of damage to infrastructures, equipment, and property, and also having a good fragmentation, flyrock control is crucial in blasting operations. If measures to decrease flyrock are taken, then the flyrock distance would be limited, and, in return, the risk of damage can be reduced or eliminated. This paper deals with modeling the level of risk associated with flyrock and, also, flyrock distance prediction based on the rock engineering systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, 13 effective parameters on flyrock due to blasting are considered as inputs, and the flyrock distance and associated level of risks as outputs. In selecting input data, the simplicity of measuring input data was taken into account as well. The data for 47 blasts, carried out at the Sungun copper mine, western Iran, were used to predict the level of risk and flyrock distance corresponding to each blast. The obtained results showed that, for the 47 blasts carried out at the Sungun copper mine, the level of estimated risks are mostly in accordance with the measured flyrock distances. Furthermore, a comparison was made between the results of the flyrock distance predictive RES-based model, the multivariate regression analysis model (MVRM), and, also, the dimensional analysis model. For the RES-based model, R 2 and root mean square error (RMSE) are equal to 0.86 and 10.01, respectively, whereas for the MVRM and dimensional analysis, R 2 and RMSE are equal to (0.84 and 12.20) and (0.76 and 13.75), respectively. These achievements confirm the better performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

How important are venue-based HIV risks among male clients of female sex workers? A mixed methods analysis of the risk environment in nightlife venues in Tijuana, Mexico

PubMed Central

Goldenberg, Shira; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Gallardo, Manuel; Nguyen, Lucie; Lozada, Remedios; Semple, Shirley J.; Patterson, Thomas L.

2011-01-01

In 2008, 400 males ≥ 18 years old who paid or traded for sex with a female sex worker (FSW) in Tijuana, Mexico, in the past 4 months completed surveys and HIV/STI testing; 30 also completed qualitative interviews. To analyze environmental HIV vulnerability among male clients of FSWs in Tijuana, Mexico, we used mixed methods to investigate correlates of clients who met FSWs in nightlife venues and clients’ perspectives on venue-based risks. Logistic regression identified micro-level correlates of meeting FSWs in nightlife venues, which were triangulated with clients’ narratives regarding macro-level influences. In a multivariate model, offering increased pay for unprotected sex and binge drinking were micro-level factors that were independently associated with meeting FSWs in nightlife venues versus other places. In qualitative interviews, clients characterized nightlife venues as high risk due to the following macro-level features: social norms dictating heavy alcohol consumption; economic exploitation by establishment owners; and poor enforcement of sex work regulations in nightlife venues. Structural interventions in nightlife venues are needed to address venue-based risks. PMID:21396875

How important are venue-based HIV risks among male clients of female sex workers? A mixed methods analysis of the risk environment in nightlife venues in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Goldenberg, Shira M; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Gallardo, Manuel; Nguyen, Lucie; Lozada, Remedios; Semple, Shirley J; Patterson, Thomas L

2011-05-01

In 2008, 400 males ≥18 years old who paid or traded for sex with a female sex worker (FSW) in Tijuana, Mexico, in the past 4 months completed surveys and HIV/STI testing; 30 also completed qualitative interviews. To analyze environmental sources of HIV vulnerability among male clients of FSWs in Tijuana, we used mixed methods to investigate correlates of clients who met FSWs in nightlife venues and clients' perspectives on venue-based HIV risk. Logistic regression identified micro-level correlates of meeting FSWs in nightlife venues, which were triangulated with clients' narratives regarding macro-level influences. In a multivariate model, offering increased pay for unprotected sex and binge drinking were micro-level factors that were independently associated with meeting FSWs in nightlife venues versus other places. In qualitative interviews, clients characterized nightlife venues as high risk due to the following macro-level features: social norms dictating heavy alcohol consumption; economic exploitation by establishment owners; and poor enforcement of sex work regulations in nightlife venues. Structural interventions in nightlife venues are needed to address venue-based risks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

PubMed

Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-07-01

We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (2.6% [59 of 2,311] vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001). Observed major morbidity and mortality was also lower than predicted for isolated AVR (14.6% [389 of 2,660] vs 17.5%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (20.0% [462 of 2,311] vs 25.8%, p < 0.0001). Shorter height, higher bilirubin, and lower albumin were identified as additional institution-specific risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surveying hospital network structure in New York State: how are they structured?

PubMed

Nauenberg, E; Brewer, C S

2000-01-01

We determine the most common network structures in New York state. The taxonomy employed uses three structural dimensions: integration, complexity, and risk-sharing between organizations. Based on a survey conducted in 1996, the most common type of network (26.4 percent) had medium levels of integration, medium or high levels of complexity, and some risk-sharing. Also common were networks with low levels of integration, low levels of complexity, and no risk-sharing (22.1 percent).

Preliminary remediation goals for use at the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-06-01

This report presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. Chemical-specific PRGs are concentration goals for individual chemicals for specific medium and land use combinations. The PRGs are referred to as risk-based because they have been calculated using risk assessment procedures. Risk-based calculations set concentration limits using both carcinogenic or noncarcinogenic toxicity values under specific exposure pathways. The PRG is a concentration that is derived from a specified excess cancer risk level or hazard quotient. This report provides the ERmore » Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. By managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values.« less

Radiofrequency electromagnetic fields emitted from base stations of DECT cordless phones and the risk of glioma and meningioma (Interphone Study Group, Germany).

PubMed

Schüz, Joachim; Böhler, Eva; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Berg, Gabriele; Schlaefer, Klaus; Hettinger, Iris; Kunna-Grass, Katharina; Wahrendorf, Jürgen; Blettner, Maria

2006-07-01

The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that exposure to continuous low-level radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMFs) increases the risk of glioma and meningioma. Participants in a population-based case-control study in Germany on the risk of brain tumors in relation to cellular phone use were 747 incident brain tumor cases between the ages of 30 and 69 years and 1494 matched controls. The exposure measure of this analysis was the location of a base station of a DECT (Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications) cordless phone close to the bed, which was used as a proxy for continuous low-level exposure to RF EMFs during the night. Estimated odds ratios were 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.29-2.33) for glioma and 0.83 (0.29-2.36) for meningioma. There was also no increasing risk observed with duration of exposure to DECT cordless phone base stations. Although the study was limited due to the small number of exposed subjects, it is still a first indication that residential low-level exposure to RF EMFs may not pose a higher risk of brain tumors.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience Across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

PubMed Central

Shaw, Daniel S.

2009-01-01

This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent literature, we conclude that resilience, as a global construct, appears to be rare at the highest levels of risk, and that resilience may benefit from a narrower conceptualization focusing on specific outcomes at specific timepoints in development. The implication of this conclusion for future research and intervention efforts is then discussed. PMID:18379875

Nitrate in drinking water and colorectal cancer risk: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Schullehner, Jörg; Hansen, Birgitte; Thygesen, Malene; Pedersen, Carsten B; Sigsgaard, Torben

2018-07-01

Nitrate in drinking water may increase risk of colorectal cancer due to endogenous transformation into carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds. Epidemiological studies are few and often challenged by their limited ability of estimating long-term exposure on a detailed individual level. We exploited population-based health register data, linked in time and space with longitudinal drinking water quality data, on an individual level to study the association between long-term drinking water nitrate exposure and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Individual nitrate exposure was calculated for 2.7 million adults based on drinking water quality analyses at public waterworks and private wells between 1978 and 2011. For the main analyses, 1.7 million individuals with highest exposure assessment quality were included. Follow-up started at age 35. We identified 5,944 incident CRC cases during 23 million person-years at risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of nitrate exposure on the risk of CRC, colon and rectal cancer. Persons exposed to the highest level of drinking water nitrate had an HR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08-1.25) for CRC compared with persons exposed to the lowest level. We found statistically significant increased risks at drinking water levels above 3.87 mg/L, well below the current drinking water standard of 50 mg/L. Our results add to the existing evidence suggesting increased CRC risk at drinking water nitrate concentrations below the current drinking water standard. A discussion on the adequacy of the drinking water standard in regards to chronic effects is warranted. © 2018 UICC.

Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

2017-05-01

In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Managing the financial risk of low water levels in Great Lakes with index-based contracts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, E.; Characklis, G. W.; Brown, C. M.; Moody, P.

2014-12-01

Low water levels in the Great Lakes have recently had significant financial impacts on the region's commercial shipping, responsible for transporting millions of dollars' worth of bulk goods each year. Low lake levels can significantly affect shipping firms, as cargo capacity is a function of draft, or the distance between water level and the ship's bottom. Draft increases with weight, and lower lake levels force ships to reduce cargo to prevent running aground in shallow harbors, directly impacting the finances of shipping companies. Risk transfer instruments may provide adaptable, yet unexplored, alternatives for managing these financial risks, at significantly less expense than more traditional solutions (e.g., dredging). Index-based financial instruments can be particularly attractive as contract payouts are directly linked to well-defined transparent metrics (e.g., lake levels), eliminating the need for subjective adjustors, as well as concerns over moral hazard. In developing such instruments, a major challenge is identifying an index that is well correlated with financial losses, and thus a contract that reliably pays out when losses are experienced (low basis risk). In this work, a relationship between lake levels and shipping revenues is developed, and actuarial analyses of the frequency and magnitude of revenue losses is completed using this relationship and synthetic water level data. This analysis is used to develop several types of index-based contracts. A standardized suite of binary contracts is developed, with each indexed to lake levels and priced according to predefined thresholds. These are combined to form portfolios with different objectives (e.g. options, collars), with optimal portfolio structure and length of coverage determined by limiting basis risk and contract cost, using simulations over the historic dataset. Results suggest that portfolios of these binary contracts can substantially reduce the risk of financial losses during periods of low lake level at a cost of only 1-3% of total revenues.

Managing health and safety risks: Implications for tailoring health and safety management system practices.

PubMed

Willmer, D R; Haas, E J

2016-01-01

As national and international health and safety management system (HSMS) standards are voluntarily accepted or regulated into practice, organizations are making an effort to modify and integrate strategic elements of a connected management system into their daily risk management practices. In high-risk industries such as mining, that effort takes on added importance. The mining industry has long recognized the importance of a more integrated approach to recognizing and responding to site-specific risks, encouraging the adoption of a risk-based management framework. Recently, the U.S. National Mining Association led the development of an industry-specific HSMS built on the strategic frameworks of ANSI: Z10, OHSAS 18001, The American Chemistry Council's Responsible Care, and ILO-OSH 2001. All of these standards provide strategic guidance and focus on how to incorporate a plan-do-check-act cycle into the identification, management and evaluation of worksite risks. This paper details an exploratory study into whether practices associated with executing a risk-based management framework are visible through the actions of an organization's site-level management of health and safety risks. The results of this study show ways that site-level leaders manage day-to-day risk at their operations that can be characterized according to practices associated with a risk-based management framework. Having tangible operational examples of day-to-day risk management can serve as a starting point for evaluating field-level risk assessment efforts and their alignment to overall company efforts at effective risk mitigation through a HSMS or other processes.

Toxicological risk assessment and prioritization of drinking water relevant contaminants of emerging concern.

PubMed

Baken, Kirsten A; Sjerps, Rosa M A; Schriks, Merijn; van Wezel, Annemarie P

2018-06-13

Toxicological risk assessment of contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) in (sources of) drinking water is required to identify potential health risks and prioritize chemicals for abatement or monitoring. In such assessments, concentrations of chemicals in drinking water or sources are compared to either (i) health-based (statutory) drinking water guideline values, (ii) provisional guideline values based on recent toxicity data in absence of drinking water guidelines, or (iii) generic drinking water target values in absence of toxicity data. Here, we performed a toxicological risk assessment for 163 CEC that were selected as relevant for drinking water. This relevance was based on their presence in drinking water and/or groundwater and surface water sources in downstream parts of the Rhine and Meuse, in combination with concentration levels and physicochemical properties. Statutory and provisional drinking water guideline values could be derived from publically available toxicological information for 142 of the CEC. Based on measured concentrations it was concluded that the majority of substances do not occur in concentrations which individually pose an appreciable human health risk. A health concern could however not be excluded for vinylchloride, trichloroethene, bromodichloromethane, aniline, phenol, 2-chlorobenzenamine, mevinphos, 1,4-dioxane, and nitrolotriacetic acid. For part of the selected substances, toxicological risk assessment for drinking water could not be performed since either toxicity data (hazard) or drinking water concentrations (exposure) were lacking. In absence of toxicity data, the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approach can be applied for screening level risk assessment. The toxicological information on the selected substances was used to evaluate whether drinking water target values based on existing TTC levels are sufficiently protective for drinking water relevant CEC. Generic drinking water target levels of 37 μg/L for Cramer class I substances and 4 μg/L for Cramer class III substances in drinking water were derived based on these CEC. These levels are in line with previously reported generic drinking water target levels based on original TTC values and are shown to be protective for health effects of the majority of contaminants of emerging concern evaluated in the present study. Since the human health impact of many chemicals appearing in the water cycle has been studied insufficiently, generic drinking water target levels are useful for early warning and prioritization of CEC with unknown toxicity in drinking water and its sources for future monitoring. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer mortality and occupational exposure to aromatic amines and inhalable aerosols in rubber tire manufacturing in Poland.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank; Sobala, Wojciech; Wilczynska, Urszula; Kromhout, Hans; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Peplonska, Beata

2009-08-01

Most data on carcinogenic risk in the rubber industry are based on data from Western countries. This study assessed cancer risks in a retrospective cohort in a Polish tire manufacturing plant, relying on quantified exposure to inhalable aerosols and aromatic amines instead of job titles or external comparisons. Cumulative exposure for all exposures was assigned to cohort members based on estimates from a company-specific JEM. Cancer risks associated with cumulative exposure adjusted for co-exposures, gender and year of birth were calculated. Exposure levels were higher for women than for men. Aromatic amine exposure was significantly associated with increased urinary bladder cancer risk (RR=7.32-8.27), depending on exposure level, and prostate cancer at low levels only (RR=5.86). In women, increased risks were found for all cancers (RR=2.50) and of the digestive organs and peritoneum (RR=4.54) at low level only, while an exposure-response association with breast cancer risk was found. Inhalable aerosol exposure was associated with cancers of the liver and intrahepatic bile ducts in a dose-dependent manner, while dose-dependent reduced risks were found for respiratory cancers (most notably the larynx) and cancer of the colon. Increased risks for specific cancer sites in this rubber plant were similar to Western Europe and the US. However, several cancer risks were gender-specific which could relate to higher exposure levels in women or to differences in exposures to chemicals not assessed in this study.

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO ACCURATELY MEASURE TRACE LEVELS OF VOCS AND SVOCS IN SOIL AND SEDIMENT WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is a crucial component of the site remediation decision-making process. Some current EPA methods do not have detection limits low enough for risk assessment of many VOCs (e.g., EPA Region 3 Risk Based Concentration levels, EPA Region 9 Preliminary Remediation Goa...

Event-Level Covariation of Alcohol Intoxication and Behavioral Risks during the First Year of College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neal, Dan J.; Fromme, Kim

2007-01-01

The authors examined the global- and event-level associations between alcohol intoxication and 10 behavioral risks during the 1st year of college. Participants (n = 1113; 62% female; 54% Caucasian) completed 30 days of Web-based self-monitoring that assessed alcohol consumption and involvement in 10 behavioral risks. Generalized estimating…

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

FROM MOLECULES TO POPULATIONS: USING POPULATION GENETICS TO ANSWER THE SO WHAT QUESTION

EPA Science Inventory

Important endpoints for ecological risk assessments are usually those that affect population or species persistence rather than individual-level responses. Nonetheless, ecological risk assessments are generally based on measures of individual-level responses. Extrapolation of i...

The effect of direct-to-consumer genetic tests on anticipated affect and health-seeking behaviors: a pilot survey.

PubMed

Bansback, Nick; Sizto, Sonia; Guh, Daphne; Anis, Aslam H

2012-10-01

Numerous websites offer direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing, yet it is unknown how individuals will react to genetic risk profiles online. The objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of using a web-based survey and conjoint methods to elicit individuals' interpretations of genetic risk profiles by their anticipated worry/anxiousness and health-seeking behaviors. A web-based survey was developed using conjoint methods. Each survey presented 12 hypothetical genetic risk profiles describing genetic test results for four diseases. Test results were characterized by the type of disease (eight diseases), individual risk (five levels), and research confidence (three levels). After each profile, four questions were asked regarding anticipated worry and health-seeking behaviors. Probabilities of response outcomes based on attribute levels were estimated from logistic regression models, adjusting for covariates. Overall, 319 participants (69%) completed 3828 unique genetic risk profiles. Across all profiles, most participants anticipated making doctor's appointments (63%), lifestyle changes (57%), and accessing screening (57%); 40% anticipated feeling more worried and anxious. Higher levels of disease risk were significantly associated with affirmative responses. Conjoint methods may be used to elicit reactions to genetic information online. Preliminary results suggest that genetic information may increase worry/anxiousness and health-seeking behaviors among consumers of DTC tests. Further research is planned to determine the appropriateness of these affects and behaviors.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

PubMed

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-03-01

Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

PubMed Central

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Summary Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. PMID:28126460

Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

Risk-Based School Inspections: Impact of Targeted Inspection Approaches on Dutch Secondary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehren, Melanie C.; Shackleton, Nichola

2016-01-01

In most countries, publicly funded schools are held accountable to one inspectorate and are judged against agreed national standards. Many inspectorates of education have recently moved towards more proportional risk-based inspection models, targeting high-risk schools for visits, while schools with satisfactory student attainment levels are…

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented. PMID:28248969

A risk management model for familial breast cancer: A new application using Fuzzy Cognitive Map method.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I; Jayashree Subramanian; Karmegam, Akila; Papandrianos, Nikolaos

2015-11-01

Breast cancer is the most deadly disease affecting women and thus it is natural for women aged 40-49 years (who have a family history of breast cancer or other related cancers) to assess their personal risk for developing familial breast cancer (FBC). Besides, as each individual woman possesses different levels of risk of developing breast cancer depending on their family history, genetic predispositions and personal medical history, individualized care setting mechanism needs to be identified so that appropriate risk assessment, counseling, screening, and prevention options can be determined by the health care professionals. The presented work aims at developing a soft computing based medical decision support system using Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) that assists health care professionals in deciding the individualized care setting mechanisms based on the FBC risk level of the given women. The FCM based FBC risk management system uses NHL to learn causal weights from 40 patient records and achieves a 95% diagnostic accuracy. The results obtained from the proposed model are in concurrence with the comprehensive risk evaluation tool based on Tyrer-Cuzick model for 38/40 patient cases (95%). Besides, the proposed model identifies high risk women by calculating higher accuracy of prediction than the standard Gail and NSAPB models. The testing accuracy of the proposed model using 10-fold cross validation technique outperforms other standard machine learning based inference engines as well as previous FCM-based risk prediction methods for BC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

PubMed

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Distribution and risk assessment of mercury species in soil of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir].

PubMed

Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Hong; Wang, Ding-Yong; Sun, Rong-Guo; Zhang, Jin-Yang

2014-03-01

To investigate pollution level and ecological risk of mercury in soils of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, 192 surface soil samples from 14 counties (districts) in Chongqing were obtained. Concentrations of THg and Hg species, bioavailable Hg were analyzed and discussed. Geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) and Håkanson potential ecological risk index (E(r)) were applied to assess the pollution status and potential ecological risk of THg and Hg species, respectively. The results showed that significant differences in the concentration of THg were found in soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The THg concentration ranged from 22.4 to 393.5 microg x kg(-1), with an average of (84.2 +/- 54.3) microg x kg(-1). 76.6% of the samples' THg content was higher than the soil background value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The percentage of five mercury species (water-soluble Hg, HCl-soluble Hg, KOH-soluble Hg, H2O2-soluble Hg, residue Hg) in soils were 4.1%, 15.5%, 18.3%, 10.9%, 51.3%, respectively. The average concentrations of bioavailable mercury varied between 19.7-36.6 microg x kg(-1), and the percentage of bioavailable Hg was 22.1%-51.6% of THg. According to the geoaccumulation index, the soils were lightly polluted by Hg. Håkanson single potential ecological risk index evaluation showed that Hg species had a low potential ecological risk, moreover, soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir were at low ecological risk levels as evaluated by bioavailable Hg. While, the assessment results based on THg of soils was much higher than that based on the Hg species. Two methods of evaluation showed that the I(geo) and E(r) values calculated based on the Hg species better reflected the actual pollution levels of soils and its hazard to aquatic organisms.

Information risk and security modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zivic, Predrag

2005-03-01

This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

PubMed

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

2014-02-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Web-based decision support system to predict risk level of long term rice production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhlash, Imam; Maulidiyah, Ratna; Sutikno; Setiyono, Budi

2017-09-01

Appropriate decision making in risk management of rice production is very important in agricultural planning, especially for Indonesia which is an agricultural country. Good decision would be obtained if the supporting data required are satisfied and using appropriate methods. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System that can be used to predict the risk level of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java. Web-based decision support system is constructed so that the information can be easily accessed and understood. Components of the system are data management, model management, and user interface. This research uses regression models of OLS and Copula. OLS model used to predict rainfall while Copula model used to predict harvested area. Experimental results show that the models used are successfully predict the harvested area of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java at any given time based on the conditions and climate of a region. Furthermore, it can predict the amount of rice production with the level of risk. System generates prediction of production risk level in the long term for some districts that can be used as a decision support for the authorities.

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Risk factors and consequences of maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels during pregnancy: a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Gaillard, Romy; Eilers, Paul H C; Yassine, Siham; Hofman, Albert; Steegers, Eric A P; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

2014-05-01

To determine sociodemographic and life style-related risk factors and trimester specific maternal, placental, and fetal consequences of maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels in pregnancy. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 7317 mothers, we measured haemoglobin levels in early pregnancy [gestational age median 14.4 weeks (inter-quartile-range 12.5-17.5)]. Anaemia (haemoglobin ≤11 g/dl) and elevated haemoglobin levels (haemoglobin ≥13.2 g/dl) were defined according to the WHO criteria. Maternal blood pressure, placental function and fetal growth were measured in each trimester. Data on gestational hypertensive disorders and birth outcomes was collected from hospitals. Older maternal age, higher body mass index, primiparity and European descent were associated with higher haemoglobin levels (P < 0.05). Elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure throughout pregnancy (mean differences 5.1 mmHg, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8, 6.5 and 4.1 mmHg, 95% CI 3.0, 5.2, respectively) and with a higher risk of third trimester uterine artery notching (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0, 1.7). As compared with maternal normal haemoglobin levels, not anaemia, but elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with fetal head circumference, length, and weight growth restriction from third trimester onwards (P < 0.05). Elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with increased risks of gestational hypertensive disorders (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1, 1.8) and adverse birth outcomes (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1, 1.7). In a low-risk population, various sociodemographic and life style factors affect haemoglobin levels during pregnancy. Elevated haemoglobin levels are associated with increased risks of maternal, placental, and fetal complications. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Life-time risk of mortality due to different levels of alcohol consumption in seven European countries: implications for low-risk drinking guidelines.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Gmel, Gerrit; Gmel, Gerhard; Mäkelä, Pia; Probst, Charlotte; Room, Robin; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-09-01

Low-risk alcohol drinking guidelines require a scientific basis that extends beyond individual or group judgements of risk. Life-time mortality risks, judged against established thresholds for acceptable risk, may provide such a basis for guidelines. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate alcohol mortality risks for seven European countries based on different average daily alcohol consumption amounts. The maximum acceptable voluntary premature mortality risk was determined to be one in 1000, with sensitivity analyses of one in 100. Life-time mortality risks for different alcohol consumption levels were estimated by combining disease-specific relative risk and mortality data for seven European countries with different drinking patterns (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Poland). Alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, relative risk data from meta-analyses and mortality information from the World Health Organization. The variation in the life-time mortality risk at drinking levels relevant for setting guidelines was less than that observed at high drinking levels. In Europe, the percentage of adults consuming above a risk threshold of one in 1000 ranged from 20.6 to 32.9% for women and from 35.4 to 54.0% for men. Life-time risk of premature mortality under current guideline maximums ranged from 2.5 to 44.8 deaths per 1000 women in Finland and Estonia, respectively, and from 2.9 to 35.8 deaths per 1000 men in Finland and Estonia, respectively. If based upon an acceptable risk of one in 1000, guideline maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men. If low-risk alcohol guidelines were based on an acceptable risk of one in 1000 premature deaths, then maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men, and some of the current European guidelines would require downward revision. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Cross-sectional population associations between detailed adiposity measures and C-reactive protein levels at age 6 years: the Generation R Study.

PubMed

Toemen, L; Gishti, O; Vogelezang, S; Gaillard, R; Hofman, A; Franco, O H; Felix, J F; Jaddoe, V W V

2015-07-01

High body mass index is associated with increased C-reactive protein levels in childhood and adulthood. Little is known about the associations of detailed adiposity measures with C-reactive protein levels in childhood. We examined the associations of general and abdominal adiposity measures with C-reactive protein levels at school age. To gain insight into the direction of causality, we used genetic risk scores based on known genetic variants in adults as proxies for child adiposity measures and C-reactive protein levels. Within a population-based cohort study among 4338 children at the median age of 6.2 years, we measured body mass index, fat mass percentage, android/gynoid fat mass ratio and preperitoneal abdominal fat mass. We also measured C-reactive protein blood levels and defined increased levels as ⩾3.0 mg l(-1). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the weighted genetic risk scores were extracted from large genome-wide association studies on adult body mass index, waist-hip ratio and C-reactive protein levels. All fat mass measures were associated with increased C-reactive protein levels, even after adjusting for multiple confounders. Fat mass percentage was most strongly associated with increased C-reactive protein levels (odds ratio 1.46 (95% confidence interval 1.30-1.65) per increase standard deviation scores in fat mass percentage). The association was independent of body mass index. The genetic risk score based on adult body mass index SNPs, but not adult waist-hip ratio SNPs, tended to be associated with increased C-reactive protein levels at school age. The genetic risk score based on adult C-reactive protein level SNPs was not associated with adiposity measures at school age. Our results suggest that higher general and abdominal fat mass may lead to increased C-reactive protein levels at school age. Further studies are needed to replicate these results and explore the causality and long-term consequences.

Effect of risk-based payment model on caries inequalities in preschool children assessed by geo-mapping.

PubMed

Holmén, Anders; Strömberg, Ulf; Håkansson, Gunnel; Twetman, Svante

2018-01-05

To describe, with aid of geo-mapping, the effects of a risk-based capitation model linked to caries-preventive guidelines on the polarization of caries in preschool children living in the Halland region of Sweden. The new capitation model was implemented in 2013 in which more money was allocated to Public Dental Clinics surrounded by administrative parishes inhabited by children with increased caries risk, while a reduced capitation was allocated to those clinics with a low burden of high risk children. Regional geo-maps of caries risk based on caries prevalence, level of education and the families purchasing power were produced for 3-6-year-old children in 2010 (n = 10,583) and 2016 (n = 7574). Newly migrated children to the region (n = 344 in 2010 and n = 522 in 2016) were analyzed separately. A regional caries polarization index was calculated as the ratio between the maximum and minimum estimates of caries frequency on parish-level, based on a Bayesian hierarchical mapping model. Overall, the total caries prevalence (dmfs > 0) remained unchanged from 2010 (10.6%) to 2016 (10.5%). However, the polarization index decreased from 7.0 in 2010 to 5.6 in 2016. Newly arrived children born outside Sweden had around four times higher caries prevalence than their Swedish-born peers. A risk-based capitation model could reduce the socio-economic inequalities in dental caries among preschool children living in Sweden. Although updated evidence-based caries-preventive guidelines were released, the total prevalence of caries on dentin surface level was unaffected 4 years after the implementation.

Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

2008-04-01

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Post, G.B.; Baratta, M.; Wolfson, S.

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection`s responsibilities related to health-based risk assessment are described, including its research projects and its development of health based compound specific standards and guidance levels. The resources used by the agency to support health risk assessment work are outlined.

Serum magnesium and the risk of prediabetes: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Kieboom, Brenda C T; Ligthart, Symen; Dehghan, Abbas; Kurstjens, Steef; de Baaij, Jeroen H F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Zietse, Robert; Stricker, Bruno H; Hoorn, Ewout J

2017-05-01

Previous studies have found an association between serum magnesium and incident diabetes; however, this association may be due to reverse causation, whereby diabetes may induce urinary magnesium loss. In contrast, in prediabetes (defined as impaired fasting glucose), serum glucose levels are below the threshold for urinary magnesium wasting and, hence, unlikely to influence serum magnesium levels. Thus, to study the directionality of the association between serum magnesium levels and diabetes, we investigated its association with prediabetes. We also investigated whether magnesium-regulating genes influence diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels. Additionally, we quantified the effect of insulin resistance in the association between serum magnesium levels and diabetes risk. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used Cox models, adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, kidney function, serum levels of electrolytes and diuretic use, to study the association between serum magnesium and prediabetes/diabetes. In addition, we performed two mediation analyses: (1) to study if common genetic variation in eight magnesium-regulating genes influence diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels; and (2) to quantify the proportion of the effect of serum magnesium levels on diabetes that is mediated through insulin resistance (quantified by HOMA-IR). A total of 8555 participants (mean age, 64.7 years; median follow-up, 5.7 years) with normal glucose levels (mean ± SD: 5.46 ± 0.58 mmol/l) at baseline were included. A 0.1 mmol/l decrease in serum magnesium level was associated with an increase in diabetes risk (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.04, 1.33]), confirming findings from previous studies. Of interest, a similar association was found between serum magnesium levels and prediabetes risk (HR 1.12 [95% CI 1.01, 1.25]). Genetic variation in CLDN19, CNNM2, FXYD2, SLC41A2, and TRPM6 significantly influenced diabetes risk (p < 0.05), and for CNNM2, FXYD2, SLC41A2 and TRPM6 this risk was completely mediated by serum magnesium levels. We found that 29.1% of the effect of serum magnesium levels on diabetes was mediated through insulin resistance, whereas for prediabetes 13.4% was mediated through insulin resistance. Low serum magnesium levels are associated with an increased risk of prediabetes and this increased risk is similar to that of diabetes. Furthermore, common variants in magnesium-regulating genes modify diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels. Both findings support a potential causal role of magnesium in the development of diabetes, where the hypothesised pathway is partly mediated through insulin resistance.

Increased stroke risk and lipoprotein(a) in a multiethnic community: the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study.

PubMed

Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Kargman, Douglas E; Lin, I-Feng; Paik, Myunghee C; Sacco, Ralph L; Berglund, Lars

2010-08-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is associated with ischemic stroke (IS) among Whites, but data is sparse for non-White populations. Using a population-based case-control study design with subjects from the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study, we assessed whether Lp(a) levels were independently associated with IS risk among Whites, Blacks and Hispanics. Lp(a) levels were measured in 317 IS cases (mean age 69 +/- 13 years; 56% women; 16% Whites, 31% Blacks and 52% Hispanics) and 413 community-based controls, matched by age, race/ethnicity and gender. In-person assessments included demographics, socioeconomic status, presence of vascular risk factors and fasting lipid levels. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent association of Lp(a) and IS. Stratified analyses investigated gender and race/ethnic differences. Mean Lp(a) levels were greater among cases than controls (46.3 +/- 41.0 vs. 38.9 +/- 38.2 mg/dl; p < 0.01). After adjusting for stroke risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, cigarette smoking), lipid levels, and socioeconomic status, Lp(a) levels > or =30 mg/dl were independently associated with an increased stroke risk in the overall cohort (adjusted odds ratio, OR, 1.8, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.20-2.6; p = 0.004). There was a significant linear dose-response relationship between Lp(a) levels and IS risk. The association between IS risk and Lp(a) > or =30 mg/dl was more pronounced among men (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5; p = 0.02) and among Blacks (adjusted OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.2; p = 0.02). Elevated Lp(a) levels were significantly and independently associated with increased stroke risk, suggesting that Lp(a) is a risk factor for IS across White, Black and Hispanic race/ethnic groups. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

PubMed

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

Risk assessment for pesticides' MRL non-compliances in Poland in the years 2011-2015.

PubMed

Struciński, Paweł; Ludwicki, Jan K; Góralczyk, Katarzyna; Czaja, Katarzyna; Hernik, Agnieszka; Liszewska, Monika

2015-01-01

Human exposure to trace levels of pesticide residues present in food of plant origin is inevitable as long as pesticides continue to be applied in agriculture. Since Maximum Residue Levels (MRL) are not toxicological endpoint values, their violation is not by default equivalent to health risk for consumers. However, its essential to provide a health- based risk assessment for each case of MRL non-compliance reported during monitoring and official control of foodstuffs. To assess the potential short-term risk associated with consumption of food products of plant origin containing pesticide residues above MRL values based on notifications forwarded by the National Contact Point for RASFF in Poland during 2011-2015. 115 notifications including 127 analytical results non-compliant with respective MRL values were forwarded to provide risk assessment. An internationally accepted deterministic approach based on conservative model assumptions for short-term exposure assessment was applied. The risk was characterized by comparing an estimated dietary intake with respective acute reference dose (ARfD). Black currant, tea, lettuce, Chinese cabbage and carrot were among the most frequently notified products in years 2011-2015. Among pesticides exceeding respective MRL values, over 90% belonged to fungicides and insecticides/acaricides such as acetamiprid, chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, imidacloprid, dithiocarbamates and procymidone. For 15 and 6 results noncompliant with respective MRL value, a predicted short-term intake exceeded ARfD for children and adults, respectively. Residue levels that could potentially pose a health threat are found incidentally. The science-based and transparent risk assessment process with regard to the data, methods and assumptions that are applied is essential to risk management authorities. risk assessment, pesticide residues, MRL, dietary intake, RASFF, food safety.

Assessment of nurses' knowledge on evidence-based preventive practices for pressure ulcer risk reduction in patients with impaired mobility.

PubMed

Akese, M I; Adejumo, P O; Ilesanmi, R E; Obilor, H N

2014-09-01

The increase in the prevalence of pressure ulcer among patients with impaired physical mobility has currently been associated with nurses' inadequate knowledge of preventive interventions. To assess nurses' knowledge of pressure ulcer identification/staging, risk factors and evidence-based preventive practices. This descriptive study was carried out at the University Teaching Hospital Maiduguri (UMTH), Borno State, Nigeria. Total sampling technique was utilized in the recruitment of the study participants. An adapted 75-item-pressure ulcer questionnaire was used for data collection. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. The hypotheses on nurses' knowledge were tested at 0.05 level of significance using Chi square test. A total of 219 nurses participated in this study with response rate of 68.0%. The nurses' years of professional practice ranged from 1 to 35 years with a mean of 11.7 (± 7.8) years. Approximately, 73% of the nurses demonstrated a low level of knowledge of pressure ulcer identification/staging, 69.4% demonstrated an average level of knowledge of risk factors and 79.9% demonstrated high level of knowledge of preventive practices. The relationship between nurses' knowledge of risk factors and knowledge of preventive practices (p = 0.37) was not significant. Nurses demonstrated a knowledge deficit in core areas on pressure ulcer identification/staging, risk factors' assessment and evidence-based preventive practices. In order to address this dearth, there is a need to institute an educational-based practice-guideline on pressure ulcer prevention for nurses.

Relation of Plasma Lipids to Alzheimer Disease and Vascular Dementia

PubMed Central

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Luchsinger, Jose; Mayeux, Richard

2009-01-01

Background The relation between plasma lipid levels and Alzheimer disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD), and the impact of drugs to lower lipid levels remains unclear. Objective To investigate the relation between plasma lipid levels and the risk of AD and VaD and the impact of drugs to lower lipid levels on this relationship. Design and Setting Cross-sectional and prospective community-based cohort studies. Participants Random sample of 4316 Medicare recipients, 65 years and older, residing in northern Manhattan, NY. Main Outcome Measures Vascular dementia and AD according to standard criteria. Results Elevated levels of non–high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and decreased levels of HDL-C were weak risk factors for VaD in either cross-sectional or prospective analyses. Higher levels of total cholesterol were associated with a decreased risk of incident AD after adjustment for demographics, apolipoprotein E genotype, and cardiovascular risk factors. Treatment with drugs to lower lipid levels did not change the disease risk of either disorder. Conclusions We found a weak relation between non–HDL-C, LDL-C, and HDL-C levels and the risk of VaD. Lipid levels and the use of agents to lower them do not seem to be associated with the risk of AD. PMID:15148148

Total Homocysteine Is Associated With White Matter Hyperintensity Volume

PubMed Central

Wright, Clinton B.; Paik, Myunghee C.; Brown, Truman R.; Stabler, Sally P.; Allen, Robert H.; Sacco, Ralph L.; DeCarli, Charles

2005-01-01

Background Total homocysteine (tHcy) has been implicated as a risk factor for stroke and dementia, but the mechanism is unclear. White matter hyperintensities may be a risk factor for both, but studies of the relationship between tHcy and quantitative measures of white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) are lacking, especially in minority populations. Methods A community-based sample of 259 subjects with baseline tHcy levels underwent pixel-based quantitative measurement of WMHV. We examined the relationship between tHcy and WMHV adjusting for age, sociodemographics, vascular risk factors, and B12 deficiency. Results Higher levels of tHcy were associated with WMHV adjusting for sociodemographics and vascular risk factors. Conclusions These cross-sectional data provide evidence that tHcy is a risk factor for white matter damage. PMID:15879345

Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

2018-01-01

The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

Maternal haemoglobin levels and cardio-metabolic risk factors in childhood: the Generation R study.

PubMed

Welten, M; Gaillard, R; Hofman, A; de Jonge, L L; Jaddoe, V W V

2015-05-01

To assess whether variations in maternal haemoglobin levels during pregnancy are associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors in school age children. Population-based prospective cohort study. Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 2002-2012. Mothers and children (n = 5002) participating in the Generation R Study. We obtained maternal haemoglobin levels during early pregnancy (median gestational age 14.6 weeks [95% range 10.3, 25.3]) from venous blood samples. Maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels were based on World Health Organization criteria. We measured childhood cardio-metabolic risk factors at age 6 years. Cardio-metabolic risk factors included body mass index, total fat mass percentage, android/gynoid fat mass ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, left ventricular mass, and blood levels of cholesterol, insulin and C-peptide. Maternal haemoglobin levels were not associated with childhood body mass index, total fat mass percentage, android/gynoid fat mass ratio, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol or insulin levels. Compared with children with normal maternal haemoglobin levels, children from anaemic mothers had slightly higher diastolic blood pressures (difference 0.70 mmHg, 95% CI 0.12, 1.29) and lower C-peptide levels (difference factor 0.93, 95% CI 0.88, 0.98), and children of mothers with elevated haemoglobin levels had lower left ventricular masses (difference -1.08 g, 95% CI -1.88, -0.29). These associations attenuated after adjustment for multiple testing and were not consistent within linear models. These results do not strongly support the hypothesis that variations in maternal haemoglobin levels during pregnancy influence cardio-metabolic risk factors in childhood. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Quality Audit in the Fastener Industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reagan, John R.

1995-01-01

Both the financial and quality communities rely on audits to verify customers records. The financial community is highly structured around three categories of risk, INHERENT RISK, CONTROL RISK, and DETECTION RISK. Combined, the product of these three categories constitute the AUDIT RISK. The financial community establishes CONTROL RISK based in large part on a systems level understanding of the process flow. This system level understanding is best expressed in a flowchart. The quality community may be able to adopt this structure and thereby reduce cost while maintaining and enhancing quality. The quality community should attempt to flowchart the systems level quality process before beginning substantive testing. This theory needs to be applied in several trial cases to prove or disprove this hypothesis

Quality audit in the fastener industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reagan, John R.

1995-09-01

Both the financial and quality communities rely on audits to verify customers records. The financial community is highly structured around three categories of risk, INHERENT RISK, CONTROL RISK, and DETECTION RISK. Combined, the product of these three categories constitute the AUDIT RISK. The financial community establishes CONTROL RISK based in large part on a systems level understanding of the process flow. This system level understanding is best expressed in a flowchart. The quality community may be able to adopt this structure and thereby reduce cost while maintaining and enhancing quality. The quality community should attempt to flowchart the systems level quality process before beginning substantive testing. This theory needs to be applied in several trial cases to prove or disprove this hypothesis

A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

2013-11-01

In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

Risk and Protective Factors Associated with Personal Mastery Among Sexual Minority African American Female Sex Workers

PubMed Central

Buttram, Mance E.; Surratt, Hilary L.; Kurtz, Steven P.

2014-01-01

Research among sexual minorities has traditionally examined problems such as substance use, HIV risk, mental health problems, and victimization. Among sexual minority street-based female sex workers, these vulnerabilities can be magnified. Grounded in theories of resilience, this study examines risk and protective factors associated with a high level of personal mastery among a vulnerable population of women. Data are drawn from baseline interviews from street-based African American female sex workers enrolled in a randomized intervention trial in Miami, Florida. We compare sexual minority (N=197) and heterosexual (N=365) women on measures of risk and protective factors; among sexual minority women we present logistic regression analyses which reveal that severe mental distress and HIV transmission risk are associated with low levels of personal mastery, while protective factors of transportation access and social support are associated with high levels of personal mastery. These findings suggest that these protective factors may potentially facilitate the development of personal mastery and represent beneficial avenues for intervention efforts. PMID:25530691

Development of prolonged standing strain index to quantify risk levels of standing jobs.

PubMed

Halim, Isa; Omar, Abdul Rahman

2012-01-01

Many occupations in industry such as metal stamping workers, electronics parts assembly operators, automotive industry welders, and lathe operators require working in a standing posture for a long time. Prolonged standing can contribute to discomfort and muscle fatigue particularly in the back and legs. This study developed the prolonged standing strain index (PSSI) to quantify the risk levels caused by standing jobs, and proposed recommendations to minimize the risk levels. Risk factors associated with standing jobs, such as working posture, muscles activity, standing duration, holding time, whole-body vibration, and indoor air quality, were the basis for developing the PSSI. All risk factors were assigned multipliers, and the PSSI was the product of those multipliers. Recommendations for improvement are based on the PSSI; however, extensive studies are required to validate their effectiveness. multipliers, and the PSSI was the product of those multipliers. Recommendations for improvement are based on the PSSI; however, extensive studies are required to validate their effectiveness.

Sex and Age Differences in the Risk Threshold for Delinquency

PubMed Central

Loeber, Rolf; Slotboom, Anne-Marie; Bijleveld, Catrien C. J. H.; Hipwell, Alison E.; Stepp, Stephanie D.; Koot, Hans M.

2015-01-01

This study examines sex differences in the risk threshold for adolescent delinquency. Analyses were based on longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (n = 503) and the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 856). The study identified risk factors, promotive factors, and accumulated levels of risks as predictors of delinquency and nondelinquency, respectively. The risk thresholds for boys and girls were established at two developmental stages (late childhood: ages 10–12 years, and adolescence: ages 13–16 years) and compared between boys and girls. Sex similarities as well as differences existed in risk and promotive factors for delinquency. ROC analyses revealed only small sex differences in delinquency thresholds, that varied by age. Accumulative risk level had a linear relationship with boys’ delinquency and a quadratic relationship with girls’ delinquency, indicating stronger effects for girls at higher levels of risk. PMID:23183920

An RES-Based Model for Risk Assessment and Prediction of Backbreak in Bench Blasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, F.; Ebrahimi Farsangi, M. A.; Mansouri, H.

2013-07-01

Most blasting operations are associated with various forms of energy loss, emerging as environmental side effects of rock blasting, such as flyrock, vibration, airblast, and backbreak. Backbreak is an adverse phenomenon in rock blasting operations, which imposes risk and increases operation expenses because of safety reduction due to the instability of walls, poor fragmentation, and uneven burden in subsequent blasts. In this paper, based on the basic concepts of a rock engineering systems (RES) approach, a new model for the prediction of backbreak and the risk associated with a blast is presented. The newly suggested model involves 16 effective parameters on backbreak due to blasting, while retaining simplicity as well. The data for 30 blasts, carried out at Sungun copper mine, western Iran, were used to predict backbreak and the level of risk corresponding to each blast by the RES-based model. The results obtained were compared with the backbreak measured for each blast, which showed that the level of risk achieved is in consistence with the backbreak measured. The maximum level of risk [vulnerability index (VI) = 60] was associated with blast No. 2, for which the corresponding average backbreak was the highest achieved (9.25 m). Also, for blasts with levels of risk under 40, the minimum average backbreaks (<4 m) were observed. Furthermore, to evaluate the model performance for backbreak prediction, the coefficient of correlation ( R 2) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the model were calculated ( R 2 = 0.8; RMSE = 1.07), indicating the good performance of the model.

Identifying Links Between Sexual Violence and Youth Violence Perpetration: New Opportunities for Sexual Violence Prevention

PubMed Central

DeGue, Sarah; Massetti, Greta M.; Holt, Melissa K.; Tharp, Andra Teten; Valle, Linda Anne; Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Lippy, Caroline

2018-01-01

Objective One promising opportunity for advancing sexual violence (SV) research and identifying new avenues for prevention involves examining other forms of violence that may share risk factors with SV. Youth violence (YV) is ideal for consideration given evidence of overlap in SV and YV risk factors, a large set of established YV risk factors across the social ecology, and the number of evidence-based YV prevention strategies available. The current paper identifies shared and unique risk factors for SV and YV and highlights evidence-based YV prevention strategies that impact these shared risk factors. Conclusions Researchers and program developers should consider adapting and evaluating evidence-based YV prevention strategies to prevent SV. Modifying these programs to address SV’s unique risk factors may maximize their potential effectiveness. In addition, expanding SV research at the outer levels of the social ecology is critical to developing community-level prevention strategies. The YV literature suggests several potential risk factors at these levels in need of research for SV, including school connectedness, social disorganization, and availability of alcohol and drugs. Using the YV literature as a starting point for expanding SV research leverages prior investments in YV research, may help identify new SV prevention strategies at a limited cost, and moves the field more quickly toward implementation of cost-effective, multidomain violence prevention strategies in communities. PMID:29644117

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

PubMed

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

PubMed

Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

2007-09-14

Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Household-level disparities in cancer risks from vehicular air pollution in Miami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2015-09-01

Environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on ecological analyses of socio-demographic data from areal units to determine if particular populations are disproportionately burdened by toxic risks. This article advances quantitative EJ research by (a) examining whether statistical associations found for geographic units translate to relationships at the household level; (b) testing alternative explanations for distributional injustices never before investigated; and (c) applying a novel statistical technique appropriate for geographically-clustered data. Our study makes these advances by using generalized estimating equations to examine distributive environmental inequities in the Miami (Florida) metropolitan area, based on primary household-level survey data and census block-level cancer risk estimates of hazardous air pollutant (HAP) exposure from on-road mobile emission sources. In addition to modeling determinants of on-road HAP cancer risk among all survey participants, two subgroup models are estimated to examine whether determinants of risk differ based on disadvantaged minority (Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black) versus non-Hispanic white racial/ethnic status. Results reveal multiple determinants of risk exposure disparities. In the model including all survey participants, renter-occupancy, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, the desire to live close to work/urban services or public transportation, and higher risk perception are associated with greater on-road HAP cancer risk; the desire to live in an amenity-rich environment is associated with less risk. Divergent subgroup model results shed light on the previously unexamined role of racial/ethnic status in shaping determinants of risk exposures. While lower socioeconomic status and higher risk perception predict significantly greater on-road HAP cancer risk among disadvantaged minorities, the desire to live near work/urban services or public transport predict significantly greater risk among non-Hispanic whites. Findings have important implications for EJ research and practice in Miami and elsewhere.

Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

PubMed

Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

2013-05-17

Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on describing individual-level risk factors, the future necessitates comprehensive epidemiologic data characterizing multiple levels of HIV risk.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Circulating concentrations of insulin markers and coronary heart disease: a quantitative review of 19 Western prospective studies.

PubMed

Sarwar, Nadeem; Sattar, Naveed; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Danesh, John

2007-10-01

It is uncertain whether there are associations between circulating levels of insulin markers and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We report an updated meta-analysis of studies of circulating levels of three insulin markers (fasting insulin, non-fasting insulin, and pro-insulin) and CHD risk. Prospective studies based in Western populations that reported on associations between levels of fasting insulin, non-fasting insulin, and pro-insulin and incident CHD [defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary death] were identified by computer-based searches and by manual searches of the relevant literature. Nineteen relevant population-based studies were identified, of which 14 reported on fasting insulin levels involving 2649 CHD cases, eight reported on non-fasting insulin levels involving 1980 CHD cases and three reported on pro-insulin levels involving 413 CHD cases. In a comparison of individuals who had circulating levels of each of these markers in the top third with those in the bottom third of the population, the odds ratio for CHD was 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98-1.28] for raised fasting insulin, 1.35 (1.14-1.60) for raised non-fasting insulin, and 2.23 (1.65-3.00) for raised pro-insulin. There was no good evidence of heterogeneity in these estimates attributable to the several study characteristics recorded, including sex, assay methods used, or degree of adjustment of risk estimates, but the available data in many of these subgroups, particularly by sex, are sparse. Associations between CHD risk and fasting or non-fasting insulin levels are likely to be more modest than previously suspected. Preliminary data suggest that pro-insulin levels may be more strongly associated with CHD risk than are insulin levels, and this possibility should be evaluated in larger and more rigorous studies.

Serum uric acid and cancer mortality and incidence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dovell, Frances; Boffetta, Paolo

2018-07-01

Elevated serum uric acid (SUA) is a marker of chronic inflammation and has been suggested to be associated with increased risk of cancer, but its antioxidant capacity would justify an anticancer effect. Previous meta-analyses did not include all available results. We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies on SUA level and risk of all cancers and specific cancers, a conducted a meta-analysis based on random-effects models for high versus low SUA level as well as for an increase in 1 mg/dl SUA. The relative risk of all cancers for high versus low SUA level was 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.27; 11 risk estimates); that for a mg/dl increase in SUA level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.07). Similar results were obtained for lung cancer (six risk estimates) and colon cancer (four risk estimates). Results for other cancers were sparse. Elevated SUA levels appear to be associated with a modest increase in overall cancer risk, although the combined risk estimate did not reach the formal level of statistical significance. Results for specific cancers were limited and mainly negative.

A Social-Ecological Framework of Theory, Assessment, and Prevention of Suicide

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Kapusta, Nestor D.

2017-01-01

The juxtaposition of increasing suicide rates with continued calls for suicide prevention efforts begs for new approaches. Grounded in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) framework for tackling health issues, this personal views work integrates relevant suicide risk/protective factor, assessment, and intervention/prevention literatures. Based on these components of suicide risk, we articulate a Social-Ecological Suicide Prevention Model (SESPM) which provides an integration of general and population-specific risk and protective factors. We also use this multi-level perspective to provide a structured approach to understanding current theories and intervention/prevention efforts concerning suicide. Following similar multi-level prevention efforts in interpersonal violence and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) domains, we offer recommendations for social-ecologically informed suicide prevention theory, training, research, assessment, and intervention programming. Although the SESPM calls for further empirical testing, it provides a suitable backdrop for tailoring of current prevention and intervention programs to population-specific needs. Moreover, the multi-level model shows promise to move suicide risk assessment forward (e.g., development of multi-level suicide risk algorithms or structured professional judgments instruments) to overcome current limitations in the field. Finally, we articulate a set of characteristics of social-ecologically based suicide prevention programs. These include the need to address risk and protective factors with the strongest degree of empirical support at each multi-level layer, incorporate a comprehensive program evaluation strategy, and use a variety of prevention techniques across levels of prevention. PMID:29062296

Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

PubMed

Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2012-01-01

Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention.

Improving Risk Models for Avian Influenza: The Role of Intensive Poultry Farming and Flooded Land during the 2004 Thailand Epidemic

PubMed Central

Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M.; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2012-01-01

Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention. PMID:23185352

A risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in carotid endarterectomy: the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2010.

PubMed

Bekelis, Kimon; Bakhoum, Samuel F; Desai, Atman; Mackenzie, Todd A; Goodney, Philip; Labropoulos, Nicos

2013-04-01

Accurate knowledge of individualized risks and benefits is crucial to the surgical management of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Although large randomized trials have determined specific cutoffs for the degree of stenosis, precise delineation of patient-level risks remains a topic of debate, especially in real world practice. We attempted to create a risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in CEA. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent CEAs from 2005 to 2010 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project database. Of the 35 698 patients, 20 015 were asymptomatic (56.1%) and 15 683 were symptomatic (43.9%). These patients demonstrated a 1.64% risk of stroke, 0.69% risk of myocardial infarction, and 0.75% risk of death within 30 days after CEA. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that increasing age, male sex, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, angina, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, and dialysis were independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of the combined outcome of postoperative stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. A validated model for outcome prediction based on individual patient characteristics was developed. There was a steep effect of age on the risk of myocardial infarction and death. This national study confirms that that risks of CEA vary dramatically based on patient-level characteristics. Because of limited discrimination, it cannot be used for individual patient risk assessment. However, it can be used as a baseline for improvement and development of more accurate predictive models based on other databases or prospective studies.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The results will be visualized in a set of national risk profile documents intended to form the basis for conversations with governments on risk reduction and risk financing strategies.

Effects of a Risk-based Online Mammography Intervention on Accuracy of Perceived Risk and Mammography Intentions

PubMed Central

Seitz, Holli H.; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N.

2016-01-01

Objective This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. Methods 2,918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (< 1.5%; ≥ 1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) × 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Results Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk <1.5%. For women with a risk < 1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. Conclusion A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Practice Implications Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. PMID:27178707

The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism

PubMed Central

Biondi, Bernadette; Bartalena, Luigi; Cooper, David S.; Hegedüs, Laszlo; Laurberg, Peter; Kahaly, George J.

2015-01-01

Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHyper) is caused by Graves' disease, autonomously functioning thyroid nodules and multinodular goitre. Its diagnosis is based on a persistently subnormal serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level with free thyroid hormone levels within their respective reference intervals. In 2014 the European Thyroid Association Executive Committee, given the controversies regarding the treatment of Endo SHyper, formed a task force to develop clinical practice guidelines based on the principles of evidence-based medicine. The task force recognized that recent meta-analyses, including those based on large prospective cohort studies, indicate that SHyper is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease mortality, incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, fractures and excess mortality in patients with serum TSH levels <0.1 mIU/l (grade 2 SHyper). Therefore, despite the absence of randomized prospective trials, there is evidence that treatment is indicated in patients older than 65 years with grade 2 SHyper to potentially avoid these serious cardiovascular events, fractures and the risk of progression to overt hyperthyroidism. Treatment could be considered in patients older than 65 years with TSH levels 0.1-0.39 mIU/l (grade 1 SHyper) because of their increased risk of atrial fibrillation, and might also be reasonable in younger (<65 years) symptomatic patients with grade 2 SHyper because of the risk of progression, especially in the presence of symptoms and/or underlying risk factors or co-morbidity. Finally, the task force concluded that there are no data to support treating SHyper in younger asymptomatic patients with grade 1 SHyper. These patients should be followed without treatment due to the low risk of progression to overt hyperthyroidism and the weaker evidence for adverse health outcomes. PMID:26558232

Diagnosis-based Cost Groups in the Dutch Risk-equalization Model: Effects of Clustering Diagnoses and of Allowing Patients to be Classified into Multiple Risk-classes.

PubMed

Eijkenaar, Frank; van Vliet, René C J A; van Kleef, Richard C

2018-01-01

The risk-equalization (RE) model in the Dutch health insurance market has evolved to a sophisticated model containing direct proxies for health. However, it still has important imperfections, leaving incentives for risk selection. This paper focuses on refining an important health-based risk-adjuster in this model: the diagnosis-based costs groups (DCGs). The current (2017) DCGs are calibrated on "old" data of 2011/2012, are mutually exclusive, and are essentially clusters of about 200 diagnosis-groups ("dxgroups"). Hospital claims data (2013), administrative data (2014) on costs and risk-characteristics for the entire Dutch population (N≈16.9 million), and health survey data (2012, N≈387,000) are used. The survey data are used to identify subgroups of individuals in poor or in good health. The claims and administrative data are used to develop alternative DCG-modalities to examine the impact on individual-level and group-level fit of recalibrating the DCGs based on new data, of allowing patients to be classified in multiple DCGs, and of refraining from clustering. Recalibrating the DCGs and allowing enrolees to be classified into multiple DCGs lead to nontrivial improvements in individual-level and group-level fit (especially for cancer patients and people with comorbid conditions). The improvement resulting from refraining from clustering does not seem to justify the increase in model complexity this would entail. The performance of the sophisticated Dutch RE-model can be improved by allowing classification in multiple (clustered) DCGs and using new data. Irrespective of the modality used, however, various subgroups remain significantly undercompensated. Further improvement of the RE-model merits high priority.

Psychiatric morbidity and subsequent divorce: a couple-level register-based study in Finland.

PubMed

Metsä-Simola, Niina; Martikainen, Pekka; Monden, Christiaan W

2018-05-02

Studies that assess the role of mental health for the risk of divorce are scarce and mostly rely on individual-level data, although divorce is a couple-level phenomenon. Using data on couples, we examine the effects of both spouses' psychiatric morbidity on the risk of divorce, and whether socio-demographic factors affect these associations. We followed 96,222 Finnish married couples for 6 years using register-based data on both spouses and their household. New incidence of psychiatric morbidity and subsequent divorce was identified from dates of prescription medication purchases and hospital admissions, and dates of registered divorce. Socio-demographic factors were measured annually for both spouses and their household. The effect of incident psychiatric morbidity on divorce risk was analyzed using Cox regression. Psychiatric morbidity in men increased the age-adjusted risk of divorce more than twofold and in women nearly twofold. The risk of divorce was particularly pronounced immediately after new incidence of psychiatric morbidity, before settling to a persistently high level. Psychiatric morbidity in both spouses increased the risk of divorce almost threefold. Adjustment for socio-economic factors had little effect on these associations. Psychiatric morbidity is a persistent risk factor of divorce. The risk is larger when both spouses experience psychiatric morbidity compared to only one spouse. The findings are consistent with the idea that poor relationship quality and dissatisfaction in couples suffering from mental health problems have long-term consequences for marital stability. Treatment of psychiatric morbidity should not focus only on the individual but on couple-level dynamics.

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Sense and Avoid Safety Analysis for Remotely Operated Unmanned Aircraft in the National Airspace System. Version 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor

2006-01-01

This document describes a method to demonstrate that a UAS, operating in the NAS, can avoid collisions with an equivalent level of safety compared to a manned aircraft. The method is based on the calculation of a collision probability for a UAS , the calculation of a collision probability for a base line manned aircraft, and the calculation of a risk ratio given by: Risk Ratio = P(collision_UAS)/P(collision_manned). A UAS will achieve an equivalent level of safety for collision risk if the Risk Ratio is less than or equal to one. Calculation of the probability of collision for UAS and manned aircraft is accomplished through event/fault trees.

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

PubMed

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Impact of a Career Intervention on At-Risk Middle School Students' Career Maturity Levels, Academic Achievement, and Self-Esteem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Legum, Harry L.; Hoare, Carol H.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of a 9-week career intervention program on at-risk middle school students' career maturity levels, self-esteem, and academic achievement. This study was based on a pretest and posttest design using a control group. Data were collected from 27 at-risk middle school students representing the…

Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2016-04-01

Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

Serum magnesium is associated with the risk of dementia.

PubMed

Kieboom, Brenda C T; Licher, Silvan; Wolters, Frank J; Ikram, M Kamran; Hoorn, Ewout J; Zietse, Robert; Stricker, Bruno H; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-10-17

To determine if serum magnesium levels are associated with the risk of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease. Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we measured serum magnesium levels in 9,569 participants, free from dementia at baseline (1997-2008). Participants were subsequently followed up for incident dementia, determined according to the DSM-III-R criteria, until January 1, 2015. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to associate quintiles of serum magnesium with incident all-cause dementia. We used the third quintile as a reference group and adjusted for age, sex, Rotterdam Study cohort, educational level, cardiovascular risk factors, kidney function, comorbidities, other electrolytes, and diuretic use. Our study population had a mean age of 64.9 years and 56.6% were women. During a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 823 participants were diagnosed with all-cause dementia. Both low serum magnesium levels (≤0.79 mmol/L) and high serum magnesium levels (≥0.90 mmol/L) were associated with an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.69, and HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.67, respectively). Both low and high serum magnesium levels are associated with an increased risk of all-cause dementia. Our results warrant replication in other population-based studies. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Risk evaluations and condom use decisions of homeless youth: a multi-level qualitative investigation.

PubMed

Kennedy, David P; Brown, Ryan A; Morrison, Penelope; Vie, Loryana; Ryan, Gery W; Tucker, Joan S

2015-01-31

Homeless youth are at higher risk for sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancy than non-homeless youth. However, little is known about how they evaluate risk within the context of their sexual relationships. It is important to understand homeless youths' condom use decisions in light of their sexual relationships because condom use decisions are influenced by relationship dynamics in addition to individual attitudes and event circumstances. It is also important to understand how relationship level factors, sexual event circumstances, and individual characteristics compare and intersect. To explore these issues, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 37 homeless youth in Los Angeles County in 2011 concerning their recent sexual relationships and analyzed the data using systematic methods of team-based qualitative data analysis. We identified themes of risk-related evaluations and decisions at the relationship/partner, event, and individual level. We also identified three different risk profiles that emerged from analyzing how different levels of risk intersected across individual respondents. The three profiles included 1) Risk Takers, who consistently engage in risk and have low concern about consequences of risk behavior, 2) Risk Avoiders, who consistently show high concern about protection and consistently avoid risk, and 3) Risk Reactors, those who are inconsistent in their concerns about risk and protection and mainly take risks in reaction to relationship and event circumstances. Interventions targeting homeless youth should reflect multiple levels of risk behavior and evaluation in order to address the diversity of risk profiles. Relationship/partner-, event-, and individual-level factors are all important but have different levels of importance for different homeless youth. Interventions should be tailored to address the most important factor contributing to homeless youth reproductive needs.

Managing pregnancy of unknown location based on initial serum progesterone and serial serum hCG levels: development and validation of a two-step triage protocol.

PubMed

Van Calster, B; Bobdiwala, S; Guha, S; Van Hoorde, K; Al-Memar, M; Harvey, R; Farren, J; Kirk, E; Condous, G; Sur, S; Stalder, C; Timmerman, D; Bourne, T

2016-11-01

A uniform rationalized management protocol for pregnancies of unknown location (PUL) is lacking. We developed a two-step triage protocol to select PUL at high risk of ectopic pregnancy (EP), based on serum progesterone level at presentation (step 1) and the serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) ratio, defined as the ratio of hCG at 48 h to hCG at presentation (step 2). This was a cohort study of 2753 PUL (301 EP), involving a secondary analysis of prospectively and consecutively collected PUL data from two London-based university teaching hospitals. Using a chronological split we used 1449 PUL for development and 1304 for validation. We aimed to assign PUL as low risk with high confidence (high negative predictive value (NPV)) while classifying most EP as high risk (high sensitivity). The first triage step assigned PUL as low risk using a threshold of serum progesterone at presentation. The remaining PUL were triaged using a novel logistic regression risk model based on hCG ratio and initial serum progesterone (second step), defining low risk as an estimated EP risk of < 5%. On validation, initial serum progesterone ≤ 2 nmol/L (step 1) classified 16.1% PUL as low risk. Second-step classification with the risk model selected an additional 46.0% of all PUL as low risk. Overall, the two-step protocol classified 62.1% of PUL as low risk, with an NPV of 98.6% and a sensitivity of 92.0%. When the risk model was used in isolation (i.e. without the first step), 60.5% of PUL were classified as low risk with 99.1% NPV and 94.9% sensitivity. PUL can be classified efficiently into being either high or low risk for complications using a two-step protocol involving initial progesterone and hCG levels and the hCG ratio. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Serum uric acid levels and the risk of flares among gout patients in a US managed care setting.

PubMed

Shiozawa, Aki; Buysman, Erin K; Korrer, Stephanie

2017-01-01

Serum uric acid (sUA) levels are causally associated with the risk of gout flares. Our aim was to assess the magnitude of the association and time to first flare among patients in a managed care setting. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data from a large US health plan. Patients were required to have evidence of gout based on medical and pharmacy claims between January 2009 and April 2012. The 12 months prior to the index gout claim were used to assess baseline sUA levels; risk of gout flares, stratified by baseline sUA levels, was examined for 2 years post-index. Risk of flare was modeled with Cox proportional hazards; time to first flare was assessed by Kaplan-Meier. We identified 18,008 patients with gout and available baseline SUA levels (mg/dL). The hazard ratios for the risk of gout flares compared with sUA <5.0 were: 1.17 for sUA 5.0 to <6.0; 1.69 for sUA 6.0 to <7.0; 2.16 for sUA 7.0 to <8.0; 2.87 for sUA 8.0 to <9.0; and 3.85 for sUA ≥9.0 (all p < .001 except for sUA 5.0 to <6.0 cohort). The time to first flare was shorter for cohorts with higher baseline sUA levels. These findings confirm that higher sUA levels are associated with an increased risk of gout flares in a dose-response manner over 2 years. This data supports the need to treat to sUA target levels as recommended by recent gout care guidelines. Claims-based algorithms were used to identify gout flares; although this would not be expected to influence estimates of risk by sUA level, there may have been over- or under-estimation of the incidence of flares.

A BHR Composite Network-Based Visualization Method for Deformation Risk Level of Underground Space

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wei; Zhang, Xiaoya; Lu, Qi

2015-01-01

This study proposes a visualization processing method for the deformation risk level of underground space. The proposed method is based on a BP-Hopfield-RGB (BHR) composite network. Complex environmental factors are integrated in the BP neural network. Dynamic monitoring data are then automatically classified in the Hopfield network. The deformation risk level is combined with the RGB color space model and is displayed visually in real time, after which experiments are conducted with the use of an ultrasonic omnidirectional sensor device for structural deformation monitoring. The proposed method is also compared with some typical methods using a benchmark dataset. Results show that the BHR composite network visualizes the deformation monitoring process in real time and can dynamically indicate dangerous zones. PMID:26011618

MULTI-MEDIA MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER SLUDGES

EPA Science Inventory

In order to reduce the risk of municipal sludge to acceptable levels, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a regulatory program based on risk assessment and risk management. The key to such a program is the development of a methodology which allows the regulatory agency to quantify the re...

The Research on the Loan-to-Value of Inventory Pledge Loan Based Upon the Unified Credit Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Yang

This paper focus on loan limit indicator of seasonal inventory financing in supply chain financial innovation based on the logistics features of unified credit mode. According to the "corporate and debt" method in trade credit, this paper analyzes the cash flow properties of borrowing firm and the profit level of logistics enterprise, then it assumes downside-risk-averse logistics enterprise instead of risk-neutral logistics enterprise and takes the method of VaR to figure out the maximum loan-to-value ratio of inventory which is in accord with the risk tolerance level of logistics enterprise in seasonal inventory impawn financing.

Harmonised pesticide risk trend indicator for food (HAPERITIF): The methodological approach.

PubMed

Calliera, Maura; Finizio, Antonio; Azimonti, Giovanna; Benfenati, Emilio; Trevisan, Marco

2006-12-01

To provide a harmonised European approach for pesticide risk indicators, the Sixth EU Framework Programme recently financed the HAIR (HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk) project. This paper illustrates the methodology underlying a new indicator-HAPERITIF (HArmonised PEsticide RIsk Trend Indicator for Food), developed in HAIR, for tracking acute and chronic pesticide risk trends for consumers. The acute indicator, HAPERITIF(ac), is based on the ratio between an estimated short-term intake (ESTI), calculated as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the acute reference dose (ARfD); the chronic indicator HAPERITIF(chr) is based on the ratio between an estimated daily intake (EDI) and the admissible daily intake (ADI). HAPERITIF can be applied at different levels of aggregation. Each level gives information for proper risk management of pesticides to reduce the risk associated with food consumption. An example of application using realistic scenarios of pesticide treatments on a potato crop in central-northern Italy is reported to illustrate the different steps of HAPERITIF. Copyright 2006 Society of Chemical Industry.

Environmental contaminants in freshwater fish and their risk to piscivorous wildlife based on a national monitoring program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinck, J.E.; Schmitt, C.J.; Chojnacki, K.A.; Tillitt, D.E.

2009-01-01

Organochlorine chemical residues and elemental concentrations were measured in piscivorous and benthivorous fish at 111 sites from large U.S. river basins. Potential contaminant sources such as urban and agricultural runoff, industrial discharges, mine drainage, and irrigation varied among the sampling sites. Our objectives were to provide summary statistics for chemical contaminants and to determine if contaminant concentrations in the fish were a risk to wildlife that forage at these sites. Concentrations of dieldrin, total DDT, total PCBs, toxaphene, TCDD-EQ, cadmium, chromium, mercury, lead, selenium, and zinc exceeded toxicity thresholds to protect fish and piscivorous wildlife in samples from at least one site; most exceedences were for total PCBs, mercury, and zinc. Chemical concentrations in fish from the Mississippi River Basin exceeded the greatest number of toxicity thresholds. Screening level wildlife risk analysis models were developed for bald eagle and mink using no adverse effect levels (NOAELs), which were derived from adult dietary exposure or tissue concentration studies and based primarily on reproductive endpoints. No effect hazard concentrations (NEHC) were calculated by comparing the NOAEL to the food ingestion rate (dietary-based NOAEL) or biomagnification factor (tissue-based NOAEL) of each receptor. Piscivorous wildlife may be at risk from a contaminant if the measured concentration in fish exceeds the NEHC. Concentrations of most organochlorine residues and elemental contaminants represented no to low risk to bald eagle and mink at most sites. The risk associated with pentachloroanisole, aldrin, Dacthal, methoxychlor, mirex, and toxaphene was unknown because NOAELs for these contaminants were not available for bald eagle or mink. Risk differed among modeled species and sites. Our screening level analysis indicates that the greatest risk to piscivorous wildlife was from total DDT, total PCBs, TCDD-EQ, mercury, and selenium. Bald eagles were at greater risk to total DDT and total PCBs than mink, whereas risks of TCDD-EQ, mercury, and selenium were greater to mink than bald eagle. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

2018-01-01

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

Pollution characteristics and health risk assessment of heavy metals in the vegetable bases of northwest China.

PubMed

Sawut, Rukeya; Kasim, Nijat; Maihemuti, Balati; Hu, Li; Abliz, Abdugheni; Abdujappar, Abdusalam; Kurban, Miradil

2018-06-17

The objective of this study was to investigate heavy metal contamination in four major vegetable bases and determine the health risks of residents in the vicinity of the highly urbanized city Urumqi in Xinjiang, China. In this paper, we determined the contents of six heavy metals (i.e., As, Zn, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Pb) in surface soil and groundwater to evaluate the levels of heavy metal pollution and human health risks using the pollution index (PI), the Nemerow integrated pollution index (NIPI), the ecological risk factor (E i r ), risk index (RI) and the health risk assessment model. The results showed that (1) The PI, NIPI, the ecological risk factor and risk index indicated that Cd and Hg were the primary pollutants in Sishihu village. These indices suggested moderate to slightly heavy potential ecological risks. In Anningqu town, Hg and Cd led to high levels of pollution and posed slightly heavy potential ecological risks. In Qinggedahu village, it was concluded that the metals Zn, Cr, Cd, Hg, and Pb caused moderate to heavy pollution. In Liushihu village, the pollution trends in the area were low. The results of the pollution level of the irrigation well water (i.e., groundwater) indicated that the well water was considerably safer than the soil, but Cr posed a slight pollution risk. (2) The non-carcinogenic risks for adults based on the HI values of these four vegetable bases were <1. However, when considering the non-carcinogenic risks for children, the HI values were larger than 1 in all areas, indicating the local children have a higher potential non-carcinogenic risk. In addition, CR (Carcinogenic risk) from dermal contact with the vegetables bases did not pose a high risk for residents. However, for adults, the carcinogenic risk posed by Arsenic (As) through trough inhalation was the primary pathway of exposure in three of the vegetable bases, generally in the order of Qinggedahu village > Sishihu village > Anningqu town. For children, the carcinogenic risks posed by As through trough inhalation and ingestion were the main exposure pathways. From the TCR results, it can be seen that in Sishihu village, Anningqu town, and Qinggedahu village, the TCR values for adults and children were >1 × 10 -4 (unitless), and this degree of carcinogenic risk is unacceptable. (3) The identification of risk sources determined the main pollution sources affecting the vegetable bases were human activities and natural sources. Anthropogenic activities were most often related to traffic pollution sources and agricultural pollution sources, such as the irrational use of pesticides and fertilizers and stock farming. The results are important for designing remediation scenarios to control the spread of contamination as well as for serving as a reference point for soil environmental protection efforts in this region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 652.95 - Failure to meet capital requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Section 652.95 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.95 Failure to meet... your risk-based capital level calculated according to § 652.65, your minimum capital requirements...

A practical approach to risk-benefit estimation in pediatric drug research.

PubMed

Koren, Gideon

2015-02-01

One of the most difficult challenges in pediatric drug research is in exposing children to risk, often without a balanced chance of benefits. While the concept of risk is similar in adult research, the adult patient can decide for himself/herself on an acceptable level of risk, whereas children have to accept the decisions of their guardians. This paper attempts to put the complexities of estimating risk in pediatric drug research into their practical perspective, and to familiarize the reader with the way such processes are conducted in different parts of the world. Although there are regional differences, all authorities typically quantify risks of pediatric research in general, and drug research in particular, in three levels: those experienced in day-to-day life; risks slightly above this 'baseline' risk; and risks substantially above 'baseline risk'. Proportionally, the diligence of the ethics process depends on these levels, as well as on the potential benefits (or lack of) to the child involved in the research. Importantly, risk is context dependent, and a particular intervention may be effective or safe in one setting but not in another, based on local experience, staffing levels, and similar variabilities.

Dyslipidemia and associated risk factors in a resettlement colony of Delhi.

PubMed

Sharma, Urvi; Kishore, Jugal; Garg, Ankur; Anand, Tanu; Chakraborty, Montosh; Lali, Pramod

2013-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in India, with dyslipidemia contributing significantly to the risk. There are few community-based studies that highlight the burden and risk factors associated with dyslipidemia in the Indian population. To determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with dyslipidemia among adults ages 18 years and older in a resettlement colony located in central Delhi. A cross-sectional study that included a random sample of 200 adults was designed. A study tool based on the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance of noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors (STEPS) questionnaire was used. Fasting venous blood sample was collected to assess the lipid profile and anthropometric measures of the participants were recorded. Criteria based on the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults were used to define the cut offs for dyslipidemia. Data were analyzed with the Statistical Package for Social Sciences, version 17. Of a total of 200 study subjects, 34% had increased total cholesterol levels (≥200 mg %), 38% had increased low-density lipoprotein levels (≥130 mg %), 40% had increased triglyceride levels (≥150 mg %), and 42% had low high-density lipoprotein levels (<40 mg %). Using the logistic regression model, we found age, hypertension, alcohol consumption, and abdominal obesity to be associated with increased odds of dyslipidemia. A high proportion of individuals in the community have dyslipidemia, often associated with modifiable risk factors. The situation demands programs aimed at risk factor reduction. A focus on behavior change and health promotion targeting the younger age group is recommended. Copyright © 2013 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

2014-12-01

'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

Serum Uric Acid Levels and Risk of Incident Hypertriglyceridemia: A Longitudinal Population-based Epidemiological Study.

PubMed

Zheng, Rongjiong; Ren, Ping; Chen, Qingmei; Yang, Tianmeng; Chen, Changxi; Mao, Yushan

2017-09-01

Hypertriglyceridemia is one of lipid metabolism abnormalities; however, it is still debatable whether serum uric acid is a cause or a consequence of hypertriglyceridemia. We performed the study to investigate the longitudinal association between serum uric acid levels and hypertriglyceridemia. The study included 4190 subjects without hypertriglyceridemia. The subjects had annual health examinations for 8 years to assess incident hyperglyceridemia, and the subjects were divided into groups based on the serum uric acid quartile. Cox regression models were used to analyze the risk factors of development hypertriglyceridemia. During follow-up, 1461 (34.9%) subjects developed hypertriglyceridemia over 8 years of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of hypertriglyceridemia was 28.2%, 29.1%, 36.9%, and 45.6% in quartile 1,2,3 and 4, respectively ( P for trend <0.001). Cox regression analyses indicated that serum uric acid levels were independently and positively associated with the risk of incident hypertriglyceridemia. Hypertriglyceridemia has become a serious public health problem. This longitudinal study demonstrates that high serum uric acid levels increase the risk of hypertriglyceridemia. © 2017 by the Association of Clinical Scientists, Inc.

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. III: Evaluation using a panel of reference foods.

PubMed

Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

2008-12-01

This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of four functional components of a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods in a concordance study. Two independent raters assigned concern levels to 20 reference GM foods using a rating form based on the proposed RBCS. The four components of evaluation were: (1) degree of concordance, (2) distribution across concern levels, (3) discriminating ability of the scheme, and (4) ease of use. At least one of the 20 reference foods was assigned to each of the possible concern levels, demonstrating the ability of the scheme to identify GM foods of different concern with respect to potential health risk. There was reasonably good concordance between the two raters for the three separate parts of the RBCS. The raters agreed that the criteria in the scheme were sufficiently clear in discriminating reference foods into different concern levels, and that with some experience, the scheme was reasonably easy to use. Specific issues and suggestions for improvements identified in the concordance study are discussed.

The NASA Space Radiation Health Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimmerling, W.; Sulzman, F. M.

1994-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Health Program is a part of the Life Sciences Division in the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA). The goal of the Space Radiation Health Program is development of scientific bases for assuring adequate radiation protection in space. A proposed research program will determine long-term health risks from exposure to cosmic rays and other radiation. Ground-based animal models will be used to predict risk of exposures at varying levels from various sources and the safe levels for manned space flight.

A novel method for assessing risks to pollinators from plant protection products using honeybees as a model species.

PubMed

Barmaz, Stefania; Potts, Simon G; Vighi, Marco

2010-10-01

Pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services in agroecosystems and supports food production. Pollinators are potentially at risk being exposed to pesticides and the main route of exposure is direct contact, in some cases ingestion, of contaminated materials such as pollen, nectar, flowers and foliage. To date there are no suitable methods for predicting pesticide exposure for pollinators, therefore official procedures to assess pesticide risk are based on a Hazard Quotient. Here we develop a procedure to assess exposure and risk for pollinators based on the foraging behaviour of honeybees (Apis mellifera) and using this species as indicator representative of pollinating insects. The method was applied in 13 European field sites with different climatic, landscape and land use characteristics. The level of risk during the crop growing season was evaluated as a function of the active ingredients used and application regime. Risk levels were primarily determined by the agronomic practices employed (i.e. crop type, pest control method, pesticide use), and there was a clear temporal partitioning of risks through time. Generally the risk was higher in sites cultivated with permanent crops, such as vineyard and olive, than in annual crops, such as cereals and oil seed rape. The greatest level of risk is generally found at the beginning of the growing season for annual crops and later in June-July for permanent crops.

Optimal combination treatment and vascular outcomes in recent ischemic stroke patients by premorbid risk level.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Ho; Ovbiagele, Bruce

2015-08-15

Optimal combination of secondary stroke prevention treatment including antihypertensives, antithrombotic agents, and lipid modifiers is associated with reduced recurrent vascular risk including stroke. It is unclear whether optimal combination treatment has a differential impact on stroke patients based on level of vascular risk. We analyzed a clinical trial dataset comprising 3680 recent non-cardioembolic stroke patients aged ≥35 years and followed for 2 years. Patients were categorized by appropriateness levels 0 to III depending on the number of the drugs prescribed divided by the number of drugs potentially indicated for each patient (0=none of the indicated medications prescribed and III=all indicated medications prescribed [optimal combination treatment]). High-risk was defined as having a history of stroke or coronary heart disease (CHD) prior to the index stroke event. Independent associations of medication appropriateness level with a major vascular event (stroke, CHD, or vascular death), ischemic stroke, and all-cause death were analyzed. Compared with level 0, for major vascular events, the HR of level III in the low-risk group was 0.51 (95% CI: 0.20-1.28) and 0.32 (0.14-0.70) in the high-risk group; for stroke, the HR of level III in the low-risk group was 0.54 (0.16-1.77) and 0.25 (0.08-0.85) in the high-risk group; and for all-cause death, the HR of level III in the low-risk group was 0.66 (0.09-5.00) and 0.22 (0.06-0.78) in the high-risk group. Optimal combination treatment is related to a significantly lower risk of future vascular events and death among high-risk patients after a recent non-cardioembolic stroke. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of the Communities That Care Model in Pennsylvania on Change in Adolescent Risk and Problem Behaviors

PubMed Central

Jones, Damon; Greenberg, Mark T.; Osgood, D. Wayne; Bontempo, Daniel

2015-01-01

Despite the public health burden of adolescent substance use, delinquency, and other problem behavior, few comprehensive models of disseminating evidence-based prevention programs to communities have demonstrated positive youth outcomes at a population level, capacity to maintain program fidelity, and sustainability. We examined whether the Communities That Care (CTC; Hawkins and Catalano 1992) model had a positive impact on risk/protective factors and academic and behavioral outcomes among adolescents in a quasi-experimental effectiveness study. We conducted a longitudinal study of CTC in Pennsylvania utilizing biannual surveillance data collected through anonymous in-school student surveys. We utilized multilevel models to examine CTC impact on change in risk/protective factors, grades, delinquency, and substance use over time. Youth in CTC communities demonstrated less growth in delinquency, but not substance use, than youth in non-CTC communities. Levels of risk factors increased more slowly, and protective factors and academic performance decreased more slowly, among CTC community grade-cohorts that were exposed to evidence-based, universal prevention programs than comparison grade cohorts. Community coalitions can affect adolescent risk and protective behaviors at a population level when evidence-based programs are utilized. CTC represents an effective model for disseminating such programs. PMID:20020209

Universal Prevention Exposure as a Moderator of the Community Context: Findings from the PROSPER Project.

PubMed

Chilenski, Sarah M; Welsh, Janet A; Perkins, Daniel F; Feinberg, Mark E; Greenberg, Mark T

2016-03-01

This study examined how participation in a universal family skills-building program may interact with community risks and resources to produce youth outcomes. Prior research has noted community-level variability in risk and protective factors, but thus far no study has examined the role that participation on a community-wide intervention may play in moderating the effects of community risks or resources. The study included 14 communities (seven in Iowa, seven in Pennsylvania) that implemented a family focused evidence-based program as part of the PROSPER project. Community level variables included both risk factors (percent of low income families, the availability of alcohol and tobacco, norms regarding adolescent substance use, incidence of drug-related crimes) and community resources (proactive school leadership, availability of youth-serving organizations, and student involvement in youth activities). The proximal youth and family outcomes included youth perceptions of their parents' management skills, parent-child activities, and family cohesion. Results indicated that the Strengthening Families Program:10-14 may have moderated the impact of the community risks and resources on community-level youth outcomes; risk levels meaningfully associated with community-level change in program participants, though these results varied somewhat by outcome. Generally, higher levels of resources also meaningfully associated with more positive change after participating in the family-focused intervention. These results suggest that the effect of some evidence-based programs may be even stronger in some communities than others; more research in this area is needed. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

Incorporating biologically based models into assessments of risk from chemical contaminants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bull, R. J.; Conolly, R. B.; De Marini, D. M.; MacPhail, R. C.; Ohanian, E. V.; Swenberg, J. A.

1993-01-01

The general approach to assessment of risk from chemical contaminants in drinking water involves three steps: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and dose-response assessment. Traditionally, the risks to humans associated with different levels of a chemical have been derived from the toxic responses observed in animals. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that further information is needed if risks to humans are to be assessed accurately. Biologically based models help clarify the dose-response relationship and reduce uncertainty.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk.

PubMed

Soane, Emma; Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2016-06-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Does affective organizational commitment and experience of meaning at work predict risk of disability pensioning? An analysis of register-based outcomes using pooled data on 40,554 observations in four occupational groups.

PubMed

Clausen, Thomas; Burr, Hermann; Borg, Vilhelm

2014-06-01

The aim of this study is to investigate whether experience of meaning at work (MAW) and affective organizational commitment (AOC) predict risk of disability pensioning in four occupational groups. Survey data from 40,554 individuals were fitted to a national register (DREAM) containing information on payments of disability pension. Using multi-adjusted Cox-regression, observations were followed in the DREAM-register to assess risk of disability pensioning. Low levels of MAW significantly increased risk of disability pensioning during follow-up referencing high levels of MAW. Respondents with medium levels of AOC had a significantly reduced risk of disability pensioning, when compared to respondents with high levels of AOC. Furthermore, results indicate an interaction effect between AOC and MAW in predicting risk of disability pension. AOC and MAW are significantly associated with risk of disability pensioning. Promoting MAW and managing AOC in contemporary workplaces may contribute towards reducing risk of disability pensioning. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk of Acute Liver Failure in Patients With Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Evaluation of Hy's Law and a New Prognostic Model.

PubMed

Lo Re, Vincent; Haynes, Kevin; Forde, Kimberly A; Goldberg, David S; Lewis, James D; Carbonari, Dena M; Leidl, Kimberly B F; Reddy, K Rajender; Nezamzadeh, Melissa S; Roy, Jason; Sha, Daohang; Marks, Amy R; De Boer, Jolanda; Schneider, Jennifer L; Strom, Brian L; Corley, Douglas A

2015-12-01

Few studies have evaluated the ability of laboratory tests to predict risk of acute liver failure (ALF) among patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We aimed to develop a highly sensitive model to identify DILI patients at increased risk of ALF. We compared its performance with that of Hy's Law, which predicts severity of DILI based on levels of alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, and validated the model in a separate sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 15,353 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members diagnosed with DILI from 2004 through 2010, liver aminotransferase levels above the upper limit of normal, and no pre-existing liver disease. Thirty ALF events were confirmed by medical record review. Logistic regression was used to develop prognostic models for ALF based on laboratory results measured at DILI diagnosis. External validation was performed in a sample of 76 patients with DILI at the University of Pennsylvania. Hy's Law identified patients that developed ALF with a high level of specificity (0.92) and negative predictive value (0.99), but low level of sensitivity (0.68) and positive predictive value (0.02). The model we developed, comprising data on platelet count and total bilirubin level, identified patients with ALF with a C statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.96) and enabled calculation of a risk score (Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score). We found a cut-off score that identified patients at high risk patients for ALF with a sensitivity value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99) and a specificity value of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77). This cut-off score identified patients at high risk for ALF with a high level of sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) in the validation analysis. Hy's Law identifies patients with DILI at high risk for ALF with low sensitivity but high specificity. We developed a model (the Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score) based on platelet count and total bilirubin level that identifies patients at increased risk for ALF with high sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) themore » Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares, (e.g., Seafood Spoilage Predictor) have evolved the use of information systems in the food safety management. Such tools are updateable with new food-pathogen specific models containing cardinal parameters and multiple dependent variables, including plate counts, concentration of metabolic products, or even expression levels of certain genes. Then, these tools may further serve as decision-support tools which may assist in product logistics, based on their scientifically-based and “momentary” expressed spoilage and safety level.« less

Using estimated risk to develop stimulation strategies for induced seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo

2014-05-01

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the shearing of pre-existing factures or fault segments, and hence by the generation of microseismicity. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir by injecting fluids against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. Douglas and Aochi (Pageoph, 2014) propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity rate of the previous six hours, with a (potentially site-specific) ground-motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve, and then the convolution of this with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds the injection is: increased (if the risk is below the amber level), decreased (if the risk is between amber and red levels) or stopped completely (if the risk is above the red level). Based on simulations using a recently developed model of induced seismicity in geothermal systems (Aochi et al., GJI, 2014), which is validated here using observations from the Basel EGS in 2006, it is shown that the proposed procedure could lead to both acceptable levels of risk and increased permeability.

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares, (e.g., Seafood Spoilage Predictor) have evolved the use of information systems in the food safety management. Such tools are updateable with new food-pathogen specific models containing cardinal parameters and multiple dependent variables, including plate counts, concentration of metabolic products, or even expression levels of certain genes. Then, these tools may further serve as decision-support tools which may assist in product logistics, based on their scientifically-based and "momentary" expressed spoilage and safety level.

A coastal hazards data base for the U.S. West Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gornitz, V.M.; Beaty, T.W.; Daniels, R.C.

1997-12-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the US West Coast that are at risk to sea-level rise. This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the US West Coast into 0.25{degree} latitude by 0.25{degree} longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion),more » tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.« less

Sex and Age Differences in the Risk Threshold for Delinquency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Thessa M. L.; Loeber, Rolf; Slotboom, Anne-Marie; Bijleveld, Catrien C. J. H.; Hipwell, Alison E.; Stepp, Stephanie D.; Koot, Hans M.

2013-01-01

This study examines sex differences in the risk threshold for adolescent delinquency. Analyses were based on longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (n = 503) and the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 856). The study identified risk factors, promotive factors, and accumulated levels of risks as predictors of delinquency and nondelinquency,…

Threat Assessment and Remediation Analysis (TARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

of countermeasure selection strategies that prescribe the application of countermeasures based on level of risk tolerance. This paper outlines the...catalog data, which are discussed later in this paper . The methodology can be described as conjoined trade studies, where the first trade identifies and...ranks vulnerabilities based on assessed risk, and the second identifies and selects countermeasures based on assessed utility and cost. This paper

Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea.

PubMed

Seong, Ki Moon; Kwon, TaeWoo; Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

2017-01-01

Expert's risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public's risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts' radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual's opinions have often exacerbated the public's confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years' research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at < 100 millisievert could alter the public's risk perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects < 100 millisievert is necessary for successful public communication. We concluded that sustained education addressing scientific findings is a critical attribute that will affect the risk perception of radiation exposure.

Risk Assessment of residual monomer migrating from acrylic polymers and causing Allergic Contact Dermatitis during normal handling and use.

PubMed

Pemberton, Mark A; Lohmann, Barbara S

2014-08-01

Acrylic, Poly Methyl Methacrylate (PMMA) based polymers are found in many industrial, professional and consumer products and are of low toxicity, but do contain very low levels of residual monomers and process chemicals that can leach out during handling and use. Methyl Methacrylate, the principle monomer is of low toxicity, but is a recognized weak skin sensitizer. The risk of induction of contact allergy in consumers was determined using a method based upon the Exposure-based Quantitative Risk Assessment approach developed for fragrance ingredients. The No Expected Sensitization Induction Level (NESIL) was based on the threshold to induction of sensitization (EC3) in the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) since no Human Repeat Insult Patch Test (HRIPT) data were available. Categorical estimation of Consumer Exposure Level was substituted with a worst case assumption based upon the quantitative determination of MMA monomer migration into simulants. Application of default and Chemical-Specific Adjustment Factors results in a Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR) of 10,000 and a high Margin of Safety for induction of Allergic Contact Dermatitis (ACD) in consumers handling polymers under conservative exposure conditions. Although there are no data available to derive a RCR for elicitation of ACD it is likely to be lower than that for induction. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meteorological risks are drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vijver, Hans; Vanwindekens, Frédéric; de Frutos Cachorro, Julia; Verspecht, Ann; Planchon, Viviane; Buyse, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Agricultural crop production is to a great extent determined by weather conditions. The research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The methodology comprised five major parts: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual maxima of meteorological variables based on a location-, scale- and shape-parameter that determine the center of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in spatial temperature extremes, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was realised using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenology, a soil water balance and crop growth. 20-year return values for drought and waterlogging during different crop stages were related to arable yields. The method helped quantify agricultural production risks and rate both weather and crop-based agricultural insurance. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed on different layers of geo-information to include meteorology, soil-landscapes, crop cover and management. Vulnerability of agroecosystems was mapped based on rules set by experts' knowledge and implemented by Fuzzy Inference System modelling and Geographical Information System tools. The approach was applied for cropland vulnerability to heavy rain and grassland vulnerability to drought. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem was also determined by risk management which differed across sectors and farm types. A calibrated agro-economic model demonstrated a marked influence of climate adapted land allocation and crop management on individual utility. The "chain of risk" approach allowed for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risk types were quantified in terms of probability and distribution, and further distinguished according to production type. Examples of strategies and options were provided at field, farm and policy level using different modelling methods.

[Application of three control banding tools to occupational health risk assessment of titanium dioxide manufacturing factory].

PubMed

Xu, H D; Zhao, L; Tang, S C; Zhang, J; Kong, F L; Jia, G

2016-12-20

Objective: To explore and validate suitable risk assessment methods for titanium dioxide though applying three risk assessment tools for nanomaterials based on the control banding (CB) approach. Methods: A factory manufacturing titanium dioxide in Jinan city, Shandong province, was assessed using a quantitative exposure method and qualitative risk assessment methods in September, 2014. A condensation particle counter equipment was used to monitor the number concentration of particles at packaging workshop and jet milling workshop. We employed three control banding tools, including CB nanotool, Stoffenmanager nano and the Guidance on working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN) to evaluate the two workshops, then compared the evaluation results. Results: The increases of particle concentrations were generated directly by packaging and jet milling processes, the number concentration from (3.52±1.46) ×10(4)/cm(3) to (14.70±8.86) ×10(4)/cm(3) at packaging workshop and from (0.97±0.25) ×10(4)/cm(3) to (1.26±0.35) ×10(4)/cm(3) at milling workshop (both P <0.05) . The number concentrations at packaging workshop were higher than those at jet milling workshop during both manufacturing and break times (both P <0.05) . The results of CB nanotool showed that the risk level of the packaging workshop was classified as high and the risk level of the jet milling workshop was classified asmedium. The results of Stoffenmanager nano showed that the risk level of the packaging workshop was classified as medium and the risk level of the jet milling workshop was classified as low. The results of GWSNN showed that the risk level of packaging workshop was classified as high and the risk level of jet milling workshop was classified as low. Conclusion: The results of evaluation based on the three control banding tools are related and aligned with the results of quantitative monitoring, so they are all suitable to perform occupational health risk assessment on industrial scale production of titanium dioxideto some extent.

A coupled physical and economic model of the response of coastal real estate to climate risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, Dylan E.; Keeler, Andrew

2013-06-01

Barring an unprecedented large-scale effort to raise island elevation, barrier-island communities common along the US East Coast are likely to eventually face inundation of the existing built environment on a timescale that depends on uncertain climatic forcing. Between the present and when a combination of sea-level rise and erosion renders these areas uninhabitable, communities must choose levels of defensive expenditures to reduce risks and individual residents must assess whether and when risk levels are unacceptably high to justify investment in housing. We model the dynamics of coastal adaptation as the interplay of underlying climatic risks, collective actions to mitigate those risks, and individual risk assessments based on beliefs in model predictions and processing of past climate events. Efforts linking physical and behavioural models to explore shoreline dynamics have not yet brought together this set of essential factors. We couple a barrier-island model with an agent-based model of real-estate markets to show that, relative to people with low belief in model predictions about climate change, informed property owners invest heavily in defensive expenditures in the near term and then abandon coastal real estate at some critical risk threshold that presages a period of significant price volatility.

The utility of the Historical Clinical Risk-20 Scale as a predictor of outcomes in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security--a UK perspective.

PubMed

Dolan, Mairead; Blattner, Regine

2010-09-29

Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) approaches to violence risk assessment are increasingly being adopted into clinical practice in international forensic settings. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scale for outcome following transfers from high to medium security in a United Kingdom setting. The sample was predominately male and mentally ill and the majority of cases were detained under the criminal section of the Mental Health Act (1986). The HCR-20 was rated based on detailed case file information on 72 cases transferred from high to medium security. Outcomes were examined, independent of risk score, and cases were classed as "success or failure" based on established criteria. The mean length of follow up was 6 years. The total HCR-20 score was a robust predictor of failure at lower levels of security and return to high security. The Clinical and Risk management items contributed most to predictive accuracy. Although the HCR-20 was designed as a violence risk prediction tool our findings suggest it has potential utility in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security.

Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Charles Awoala

For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most preferred risk management policy option based on the result of the composite score is accept and control risk with a priority of .446, followed by transfer or share risk with a priority of .303. The least likely option is to terminate or forgo activity with a priority of .251.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

The role of perceived air pollution and health risk perception in health symptoms and disease: a population-based study combined with modelled levels of PM10.

PubMed

Orru, Kati; Nordin, Steven; Harzia, Hedi; Orru, Hans

2018-07-01

Adverse health impact of air pollution on health may not only be associated with the level of exposure, but rather mediated by perception of the pollution and by top-down processing (e.g. beliefs of the exposure being hazardous), especially in areas with relatively low levels of pollutants. The aim of this study was to test a model that describes interrelations between air pollution (particles < 10 [Formula: see text]m, PM 10 ), perceived pollution, health risk perception, health symptoms and diseases. A population-based questionnaire study was conducted among 1000 Estonian residents (sample was stratified by age, sex, and geographical location) about health risk perception and coping. The PM 10 levels were modelled in 1 × 1 km grids using a Eulerian air quality dispersion model. Respondents were ascribed their annual mean PM 10 exposure according to their home address. Path analysis was performed to test the validity of the model. The data refute the model proposing that exposure level significantly influences symptoms and disease. Instead, the perceived exposure influences symptoms and the effect of perceived exposure on disease is mediated by health risk perception. This relationship is more pronounced in large cities compared to smaller towns or rural areas. Perceived pollution and health risk perception, in particular in large cities, play important roles in understanding and predicting environmentally induced symptoms and diseases at relatively low levels of air pollution.

Medical follow-up of workers exposed to lung carcinogens: French evidence-based and pragmatic recommendations.

PubMed

Delva, Fleur; Margery, Jacques; Laurent, François; Petitprez, Karine; Pairon, Jean-Claude

2017-02-14

The aim of this work was to establish recommendations for the medical follow-up of workers currently or previously exposed to lung carcinogens. A critical synthesis of the literature was conducted. Occupational lung carcinogenic substances were listed and classified according to their level of lung cancer risk. A targeted screening protocol was defined. A clinical trial, National Lung Screnning Trial (NLST), showed the efficacy of chest CAT scan (CT) screening for populations of smokers aged 55-74 years with over 30 pack-years of exposure who had stopped smoking for less than 15 years. To propose screening in accordance with NLST criteria, and to account for occupational risk factors, screening among smokers and former smokers needs to consider the types of occupational exposure for which the risk level is at least equivalent to the risk of the subjects included in the NLST. The working group proposes an algorithm that estimates the relative risk of each occupational lung carcinogen, taking into account exposure to tobacco, based on available data from the literature. Given the lack of data on bronchopulmonary cancer (BPC) screening in occupationally exposed workers, the working group proposed implementing a screening experiment for bronchopulmonary cancer in subjects occupationally exposed or having been occupationally exposed to lung carcinogens who are confirmed as having high risk factors for BPC. A specific algorithm is proposed to determine the level of risk of BPC, taking into account the different occupational lung carcinogens and tobacco smoking at the individual level.

Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirenda, Richard J.

2012-08-16

This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessmentmore » is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.« less

Risks of Large Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Shi, Xiaofeng

2014-01-01

The risk of a large portfolio is often estimated by substituting a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of such a risk estimator is largely unknown. We study factor-based risk estimators under a large amount of assets, and introduce a high-confidence level upper bound (H-CLUB) to assess the estimation. The H-CLUB is constructed using the confidence interval of risk estimators with either known or unknown factors. We derive the limiting distribution of the estimated risks in high dimensionality. We find that when the dimension is large, the factor-based risk estimators have the same asymptotic variance no matter whether the factors are known or not, which is slightly smaller than that of the sample covariance-based estimator. Numerically, H-CLUB outperforms the traditional crude bounds, and provides an insightful risk assessment. In addition, our simulated results quantify the relative error in the risk estimation, which is usually negligible using 3-month daily data. PMID:26195851

Influence of fatigue time and level on increases in postural sway.

PubMed

Pline, Kevin M; Madigan, Michael L; Nussbaum, Maury A

2006-12-15

The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of fatigue time and fatigue level on the increases in postural sway during quiet standing. Centre of pressure-based measures of postural sway were collected both before and after fatiguing participants using three different fatigue levels and two different fatigue times. Results showed increasing fatigue time increased sway velocity and sway area, and increasing fatigue level increased sway velocity. Fatigue time effects are important to consider when applying laboratory-based findings to the field given that the fatigue time can differ substantially between the two. Fatigue level effects imply a dose - response relationship between localized muscle fatigue and risk of falling that can have important implications in work/rest cycle scheduling for occupations at risk of injurious falls.

Communicating With Residents About Risks Following the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Sato, Akiko; Matsui, Shiro; Goto, Aya; Kumagai, Atsushi; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Orita, Makiko; Takamura, Noboru; Kuroda, Yujiro; Ochi, Sae

2017-03-01

The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 posed major threats to public health. In response, medical professionals have tried to communicate the risks to residents. To investigate forms of risk communication and to share lessons learned, we reviewed medical professionals' activities in Fukushima Prefecture from the prefectural level to the individual level: public communication through Fukushima Health Management Surveys, a Yorozu ("general") health consultation project, communications of radiological conditions and health promotion in Iitate and Kawauchi villages, dialogues based on whole-body counter, and science communications through online media. The activities generally started with radiation risks, mainly through group-based discussions, but gradually shifted to face-to-face communications to address comprehensive health risks to individuals and well-being. The activities were intended to support residents' decisions and to promote public health in a participatory manner. This article highlights the need for a systematic evaluation of ongoing risk communication practices, and a wider application of successful approaches for Fukushima recovery and for better preparedness for future disasters.

Facility-Level Characteristics Associated with Serious Suicide Attempts and Deaths from Suicide in Juvenile Justice Residential Facilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher, Catherine A.; Dobrin, Adam

2006-01-01

Little is known about how facility-level characteristics affect the risk of suicide and suicide attempts in juvenile justice residential facilities. This leaves facility administrators and mental health providers without evidence-based guidance on how the facility itself affects risks. The current study uses data from two recently developed…

Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We extend existing stand-level models of forest landowner behavior in the presence of fire risk to include the level and timing of fuel management activities. These activities reduce losses if a stand ignites. Based on simulations, we find the standard result that fire risk reduces the optimal rotation age does not hold when landowners use fuel management. Instead,...

Independent associations of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with cardiovascular risk in adults.

PubMed

Ekblom-Bak, Elin; Hellénius, Mai-Lis; Ekblom, Orjan; Engström, Lars-Magnus; Ekblom, Björn

2010-04-01

Uncertainty still exists whether physical activity (PA) and cardiovascular fitness (CF) contribute separately to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study examined the associations of PA and CF on individual as well as clustered CVD risk factors. Cross-sectional. Seven hundred and eighty-one men and 890 women, aged 20-65 years, from two random population-based samples of Swedish women and men were included. PA was assessed by questionnaire and CF was predicted by a submaximal cycle ergometry test. Waist circumference, blood pressure, and fasting levels of blood lipids were assessed and dichotomized by conventional cut-off points. Participants reporting high PA level benefited from lower triglycerides and atherogenic cholesterol levels, regardless of CF. Higher CF level was, regardless of PA, associated with lower risk for all risk factors. With regard to clustering of risk factors, each higher CF level was associated with a gradually reduced risk by half or more, independent of PA. Furthermore, being unfit but reporting high PA was associated with a 50% lower risk compared with being unfit and inactive. Furthermore, high reported PA was associated with an additional reduced risk among fit participants. In addition, an excess risk of interaction was found for waist circumference, triglycerides, and the clustered CVD risk between neither being sufficiently active nor being fit. This study suggests that both PA and CF are independently associated with lower cardiovascular risk, and that both variables should be taken into account when CVD risk is estimated.

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

Exploring substance use normalization among adolescents: a multilevel study in 35 countries.

PubMed

Sznitman, Sharon R; Kolobov, Tanya; Bogt, Tom Ter; Kuntsche, Emmanuel; Walsh, Sophie D; Boniel-Nissim, Meyran; Harel-Fisch, Yossi

2013-11-01

The substance use normalization thesis predicts that adolescent substance users are less likely to report substance use risk factors in high than in low prevalence countries. This study tests whether national population-level alcohol, cigarette and cannabis prevalence rates moderate the strength of the relationship between individual level social and behavioral risk factors and individual level alcohol, cigarette and cannabis use. Data from 2009/2010 Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study (N = 68,045, age = 15) from 35 countries was analyzed using logistic Hierarchical Linear Modeling. As expected based on low cannabis prevalence rates in all countries studied, no evidence of normalization was found for recent cannabis use. Also in line with the normalization thesis, results show that for substance use that reaches above 40% in at least some of the countries studied (drunkenness, alcohol and cigarette use), adolescents who reported use are less likely to report social and behavioral risk factors in high prevalence countries than in low prevalence countries. However, support for the normalization thesis was only partial in that results show that in models where evidence for normalization was found, there are risk factors that predict substance use to an equal degree regardless of country level prevalence rates. The current research shows that the normalization thesis is a useful framework for understanding the contextual aspects of adolescent alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use. The study has implications for drug prevention as it suggests that selective prevention efforts may be particularly useful in low prevalence countries where screening based on risk factors may usefully identify adolescents at most risk for developing drug use problems. This approach may be less useful in high prevalence countries where screening based on risk factors is less likely to satisfactorily identify those at risk for developing drug use problems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Screening-Level Approach for Comparing Risks Affecting Aquatic Ecosystem Services over Socio-Environmental Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harmon, T. C.; Conde, D.; Villamizar, S. R.; Reid, B.; Escobar, J.; Rusak, J.; Hoyos, N.; Scordo, F.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; Velez, M.

2015-12-01

Assessing risks to aquatic ecosystems services (ES) is challenging and time-consuming, and effective strategies for prioritizing more detailed assessment efforts are needed. We propose a screening-level risk analysis (SRA) approach that scales ES risk using socioeconomic and environmental indices to capture anthropic and climatic pressures, as well as the capacity for institutional responses to those pressures. The method considers ES within a watershed context, and uses expert input to prioritize key services and the associated pressures that threaten them. The SRA approach focuses on estimating ES risk affect factors, which are the sum of the intensity factors for all hazards or pressures affecting the ES. We estimate the pressure intensity factors in a novel manner, basing them on the nation's (i) human development (proxied by Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, IHDI), (ii) environmental regulatory and monitoring state (Environmental Performance Index, EPI) and (iii) the current level of water stress in the watershed (baseline water stress, BWS). Anthropic intensity factors for future conditions are derived from the baseline values based on the nation's 10-year trend in IHDI and EPI; ES risks in nations with stronger records of change are rewarded more/penalized less in estimates for good/poor future management scenarios. Future climatic intensity factors are tied to water stress estimates based on two general circulation model (GCM) outcomes. We demonstrate the method for an international array of six sites representing a wide range of socio-environmental settings. The outcomes illustrate novel consequences of the scaling scheme. Risk affect factors may be greater in a highly developed region under intense climatic pressure, or in less well-developed regions due to human factors (e.g., poor environmental records). As a screening-level tool, the SRA approach offers considerable promise for ES risk comparisons among watersheds and regions so that detailed assessment, management and mitigation efforts can be effectively prioritized.

Risk assessment in infrastructure in educational institution: A study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasdan Ismail, Ahmad; Adilah Hamzah, Noor; Kamilah Makhtar, Nor; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Husna Che Hassan, Nurul; Arifpin Mansor, Muhamad

2017-10-01

This particular study was conducted to assess the hazard exposure in education institution and to highlight the possible risk level available. The assessment utilised is Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC). There was a 2008’s form in order to determine the risk level of the hazard. There were over 111 of education institutions were selected around Malaysia to perform this assessment. Area chosen for each institution was office, playing field, canteen, classroom, toilet and drainage. By referring HIRARC Guideline 2008, the determination of risk rank is measure based on the formula likelihood multiply severity and the rank need to refer from risk matrix standard. There are several hazard have be found and shows the high, medium and low of risk level. The higher level of risk was discussed in the study which is hazard found in playing field and hazard in office. There several hazard that need to be control by education management to avoid increase of case accident in Education Sector, Malaysia. As conclusion, the exposure hazard among the staff and educators is high and further action and control are needed. Further study need to explore the best recommendation for control measure of the hazard exposed by education institution.

Developing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Storage CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duncan, Ian

2014-08-31

The operational risks for CCS projects include: risks of capturing, compressing, transporting and injecting CO₂; risks of well blowouts; risk that CO 2 will leak into shallow aquifers and contaminate potable water; and risk that sequestered CO 2 will leak into the atmosphere. This report examines these risks by using information on the risks associated with analogue activities such as CO 2 based enhanced oil recovery (CO 2-EOR), natural gas storage and acid gas disposal. We have developed a new analysis of pipeline risk based on Bayesian statistical analysis. Bayesian theory probabilities may describe states of partial knowledge, even perhapsmore » those related to non-repeatable events. The Bayesian approach enables both utilizing existing data and at the same time having the capability to adsorb new information thus to lower uncertainty in our understanding of complex systems. Incident rates for both natural gas and CO 2 pipelines have been widely used in papers and reports on risk of CO 2 pipelines as proxies for the individual risk created by such pipelines. Published risk studies of CO 2 pipelines suggest that the individual risk associated with CO2 pipelines is between 10 -3 and 10 -4, which reflects risk levels approaching those of mountain climbing, which many would find unacceptably high. This report concludes, based on a careful analysis of natural gas pipeline failures, suggests that the individual risk of CO 2 pipelines is likely in the range of 10-6 to 10-7, a risk range considered in the acceptable to negligible range in most countries. If, as is commonly thought, pipelines represent the highest risk component of CCS outside of the capture plant, then this conclusion suggests that most (if not all) previous quantitative- risk assessments of components of CCS may be orders of magnitude to high. The potential lethality of unexpected CO 2 releases from pipelines or wells are arguably the highest risk aspects of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), carbon capture, and storage (CCS). Assertions in the CCS literature, that CO 2 levels of 10% for ten minutes, or 20 to 30% for a few minutes are lethal to humans, are not supported by the available evidence. The results of published experiments with animals exposed to CO 2, from mice to monkeys, at both normal and depleted oxygen levels, suggest that lethal levels of CO 2 toxicity are in the range 50 to 60%. These experiments demonstrate that CO 2 does not kill by asphyxia, but rather is toxic at high concentrations. It is concluded that quantitative risk assessments of CCS have overestimated the risk of fatalities by using values of lethality a factor two to six lower than the values estimated in this paper. In many dispersion models of CO 2 releases from pipelines, no fatalities would be predicted if appropriate levels of lethality for CO 2 had been used in the analysis.« less

[Prevalence of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Disease in Kyrgyzstan: Assessment using WHO STEPS Approach].

PubMed

A, T A; Makhmutkhodzhaev, S A; Kydyralieva, R B; Altymysheva, A T; Dzhakipova, R S; Zhorupbekova, K S; Ryskulova, S T; Knyazeva, V G; Kaliev, M T; Dzhumagulova, A S

2016-12-01

Assessment of prevalence of risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCD) based on WHO "STEPS" approach was conducted in Kyrgyzstan. Results of this study demonstrated high prevalence of NCD risk factors: 94.2% of subjects aged 24-64 years had risk factors. Prevalence of elevated blood pressure was 48.7, smoking - 25.7, hypercholesterolemia - 23.6, excessive alcohol consumption - 31.4, physical inactivity 11.4, obesity - 23.1, elevated glucose level - 4.5, diabetes - 8.8, inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables - 74%. The data obtained would allow to draft effective preventive measures to combat NCD risk factors at the national level.

Psychosocial Characteristics Associated with Both Antiretroviral Therapy Adherence and Risk Behaviors in Women Living with HIV

PubMed Central

Spangler, Sydney; Higgins, Melinda; Dalmida, Safiya George; Sharma, Sanjay

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify key psychosocial characteristics of HIV-infected women who exhibit different levels of both ART adherence and risk behaviors. We analyzed baseline data from 193 predominately African American HIV-infected women participating in a behavioral clinical trial. Women were categorized into high/low groups based on levels of adherence and risky behaviors. There was a significant interaction effect for internal motivation for adherence. Women at high risk for poor health and transmitting HIV (low adherence/high risk group) had the lowest levels of internal motivation and also reported more difficult life circumstances. Gender roles, caretaking and reliance on men for economic and other support may promote external versus internal motivation as well as riskier behaviors in this group. The highest levels of internal motivation were found in those with High Adherence/High Risk behaviors. This group was highly knowledgeable about HIV and had the lowest VL. Compared to others, this group seems to tolerate risky behaviors given their high level of adherence. Adherence and risk reduction behaviors are key to individual and public health. Motivation and risk compensation should be addressed when providing interventions to women living with HIV. PMID:26452670

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Effects of a Theory-Based, Peer-Focused Drug Education Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Gerardo M.

1990-01-01

Describes innovative, theory-based, peer-focused college drug education academic course and its effect on perceived levels of risk associated with the use of alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine. Evaluation of the effects of the course indicated the significant effect on perceived risk of cocaine, but not alcohol or marijuana. (Author/ABL)

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jinling; Lu, Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Yu, Ruozhen; Hu, Hongying; Liu, Zhengtao; Meng, Wei

2012-09-01

The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UFL, which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UFL and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose-response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UFL properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UFL instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UFL with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment.

Ethnic disparities in educational and occupational gradients of estimated cardiovascular disease risk: The Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study.

PubMed

Perini, Wilco; Agyemang, Charles; Snijder, Marieke B; Peters, Ron J G; Kunst, Anton E

2018-03-01

European societies are becoming increasingly ethnically diverse. This may have important implications for socio-economic inequalities in health due to the often disadvantaged position of ethnic minority groups in both socio-economic status (SES) and disease, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to determine whether the socio-economic gradient of estimated CVD risk differs between ethnic groups. Using the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study, we obtained data on SES and CVD risk factors among participants from six ethnic backgrounds residing in Amsterdam. SES was measured using educational level and occupational level. CVD risk was estimated based on the occurrence of CVD risk factors using the Dutch version of the systematic coronary risk evaluation algorithm. Ethnic disparities in socio-economic gradients for estimated CVD risk were determined using the relative index of inequality (RII). Among Dutch-origin men, the RII for estimated CVD risk according to educational level was 6.15% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.35-7.96%), indicating that those at the bottom of the educational hierarchy had a 6.15% higher estimated CVD risk relative than those at the top. Among Dutch-origin women, the RII was 4.49% (CI 2.45-6.52%). The RII was lower among ethnic minority groups, ranging from 0.83% to 3.13% among men and -0.29% to 5.12% among women, indicating weaker associations among these groups. Results were similar based on occupational level. Ethnic background needs to be considered in associations between SES and disease. The predictive value of SES varies between ethnic groups and may be quite poor for some groups.

Ethnic disparities in educational and occupational gradients of estimated cardiovascular disease risk: The Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study

PubMed Central

Perini, Wilco; Agyemang, Charles; Snijder, Marieke B.; Peters, Ron J.G.; Kunst, Anton E.

2017-01-01

Background: European societies are becoming increasingly ethnically diverse. This may have important implications for socio-economic inequalities in health due to the often disadvantaged position of ethnic minority groups in both socio-economic status (SES) and disease, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). Objective: The aim of this study was to determine whether the socio-economic gradient of estimated CVD risk differs between ethnic groups. Methods: Using the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study, we obtained data on SES and CVD risk factors among participants from six ethnic backgrounds residing in Amsterdam. SES was measured using educational level and occupational level. CVD risk was estimated based on the occurrence of CVD risk factors using the Dutch version of the systematic coronary risk evaluation algorithm. Ethnic disparities in socio-economic gradients for estimated CVD risk were determined using the relative index of inequality (RII). Results: Among Dutch-origin men, the RII for estimated CVD risk according to educational level was 6.15% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.35–7.96%), indicating that those at the bottom of the educational hierarchy had a 6.15% higher estimated CVD risk relative than those at the top. Among Dutch-origin women, the RII was 4.49% (CI 2.45–6.52%). The RII was lower among ethnic minority groups, ranging from 0.83% to 3.13% among men and −0.29% to 5.12% among women, indicating weaker associations among these groups. Results were similar based on occupational level. Conclusions: Ethnic background needs to be considered in associations between SES and disease. The predictive value of SES varies between ethnic groups and may be quite poor for some groups. PMID:28699411

Toward a Safety Risk-Based Classification of Unmanned Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2016-01-01

There is a trend of growing interest and demand for greater access of unmanned aircraft (UA) to the National Airspace System (NAS) as the ongoing development of UA technology has created the potential for significant economic benefits. However, the lack of a comprehensive and efficient UA regulatory framework has constrained the number and kinds of UA operations that can be performed. This report presents initial results of a study aimed at defining a safety-risk-based UA classification as a plausible basis for a regulatory framework for UA operating in the NAS. Much of the study up to this point has been at a conceptual high level. The report includes a survey of contextual topics, analysis of safety risk considerations, and initial recommendations for a risk-based approach to safe UA operations in the NAS. The next phase of the study will develop and leverage deeper clarity and insight into practical engineering and regulatory considerations for ensuring that UA operations have an acceptable level of safety.

A novel eQTL-based analysis reveals the biology of breast cancer risk loci

PubMed Central

Li, Qiyuan; Seo, Ji-Heui; Stranger, Barbara; McKenna, Aaron; Pe'er, Itsik; LaFramboise, Thomas; Brown, Myles; Tyekucheva, Svitlana; Freedman, Matthew L.

2014-01-01

Summary Germline determinants of gene expression in tumors are less studied due to the complexity of transcript regulation caused by somatically acquired alterations. We performed expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) based analyses using the multi-level information provided in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Of the factors we measured, cis-acting eQTL saccounted for 1.2% of the total variation of tumor gene expression, while somatic copy number alteration and CpG methylation accounted for 7.3% and 3.3%, respectively. eQTL analyses of 15 previously reported breast cancer risk loci resulted in discovery of three variants that are significantly associated with transcript levels (FDR<0.1). In a novel trans- based analysis, an additional three risk loci were identified to act through ESR1, MYC, and KLF4. These findings provide a more comprehensive picture of gene expression determinants in breast cancer as well as insights into the underlying biology of breast cancer risk loci. PMID:23374354

Higher levels of physical fitness are associated with a reduced risk of suffering sarcopenic obesity and better perceived health among the elderly: the EXERNET multi-center study.

PubMed

Pedrero-Chamizo, R; Gómez-Cabello, A; Meléndez, A; Vila-Maldonado, S; Espino, L; Gusi, N; Villa, G; Casajús, J A; González-Gross, M; Ara, I

2015-02-01

To evaluate the associations between physical fitness levels, health related quality of life (HRQoL) and sarcopenic obesity (SO) and to analyze the usefulness of several physical fitness tests as a screening tool for detecting elderly people with an increased risk of suffering SO. Cross-sectional analysis of a population-based sample. Non-institutionalized Spanish elderly participating in the EXERNET multi-centre study. 2747 elderly subjects aged 65 and older. Body weight, height and body mass index were evaluated in each subject. Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance. Four SO groups were created based on percentage of body fat and relative muscle mass; 1) normal group, 2) sarcopenic group, 3) obesity group and 4) SO group. Physical fitness was evaluated using 8 tests (balance, lower and upper body strength, lower and upper body flexibility, agility, walking speed and aerobic capacity). Three tertiles were created for each test based on the calculated scores. HRQoL was assessed using the EuroQol visual analogue scale. Participants with SO showed lower physical fitness levels compared with normal subjects. Better balance, agility, and aerobic capacity were associated to a lower risk of suffering SO in the fittest men (odds ratio < 0.30). In women, better balance, walking speed, and aerobic capacity were associated to a lower risk of suffering SO in the fittest women (odds ratio < 0.21) Superior perceived health was associated with better physical fitness performance. Higher levels of physical fitness were associated with a reduced risk of suffering SO and better perceived health among elderly. SO elderly people have lower physical functional levels than healthy counterparts.

75 FR 63107 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OTS

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-14

..., savings associations must consider the interest rate, credit, liquidity, price and other risks presented... subject only to moderate credit risk, and for whom expectations of default risk over the term of the... securities activities based on the levels and types of risks in its portfolio. As with the credit quality...

Wildfire risk and housing prices: a case study from Colorado Springs.

Treesearch

G.H. Donovan; P.A. Champ; D.T. Butry

2007-01-01

Unlike other natural hazards such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes, wildfire risk has not previously been examined using a hedonic property value model. In this article, we estimate a hedonic model based on parcel-level wildfire risk ratings from Colorado Springs. We found that providing homeowners with specific information about the wildfire risk rating of their...

Evaluation on Cost Overrun Risks of Long-distance Water Diversion Project Based on SPA-IAHP Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuanyue, Yang; Huimin, Li

2018-02-01

Large investment, long route, many change orders and etc. are main causes for costs overrun of long-distance water diversion project. This paper, based on existing research, builds a full-process cost overrun risk evaluation index system for water diversion project, apply SPA-IAHP method to set up cost overrun risk evaluation mode, calculate and rank weight of every risk evaluation indexes. Finally, the cost overrun risks are comprehensively evaluated by calculating linkage measure, and comprehensive risk level is acquired. SPA-IAHP method can accurately evaluate risks, and the reliability is high. By case calculation and verification, it can provide valid cost overrun decision making information to construction companies.

Socio-demographic Predictors for Urban Community Disaster Health Risk Perception and Household Based Preparedness in a Chinese Urban City

PubMed Central

Chan, Emily YY; Yue, Janice; Lee, Poyi; Wang, Susan Shuxin

2016-01-01

Objectives: There is limited evidence on urban Asian communities' disaster risk perceptions and household level preparedness. Hong Kong is characterized by high population density, and is susceptible to large-scale natural disasters and health crises such as typhoons, fires and infectious disease outbreaks. This research paper investigates the rates and predictors of urban community disaster risk perception, awareness and preparedness, at individual and household levels. Methods: A randomized cross-sectional, population-based telephone survey study was conducted among the Cantonese-speaking population aged over 15 years in Hong Kong. Descriptive statistics were reported. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the independent associations between risk perceptions, socioeconomic factors, household characteristics, and personal background. Findings: Final study sample comprised of 1002 respondents with a 63% response rate. The majority of respondents (82.3%) did not perceive Hong Kong as a disaster-susceptible city. Half (54.6%) reported beliefs that the local population had lower disaster awareness than other global cities. Infectious disease outbreak (72.4%), typhoon (12.6%), and fire (7.1%) were ranked as the most-likely-to-occur population-based disasters. Although over 77% believed that basic first aid training was necessary for improving individual disaster preparedness, only a quarter (26.1%) of respondents reported participation in training. Conclusion: Despite Hong Kong’s high level of risk, general public perceptions of disaster in Hong Kong were low, and little preparedness has occurred at the individual or household levels. This report has potential to inform the development of related policies and risk communication strategies in Asian urban cities. PMID:28856059

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

Speech and language interventions for infants aged 0 to 2 years at high risk for cerebral palsy: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Chorna, Olena; Hamm, Ellyn; Cummings, Caitlin; Fetters, Ashley; Maitre, Nathalie L

2017-01-01

Aim We evaluated the level of evidence of speech, language, and communication interventions for infants at high-risk for, or with a diagnosis of, cerebral palsy (CP) from 0 to 2 years old. Method We performed a systematic review of relevant terms. Articles were evaluated based on the level of methodological quality and evidence according to A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines. Results The search terms provided 17 publications consisting of speech or language interventions. There were no interventions in the high level of evidence category. The overall level of evidence was very low. Promising interventions included Responsivity and Prelinguistic Milieu Teaching and other parent–infant transaction frameworks. Interpretation There are few evidence-based interventions addressing speech, language, and communication needs of infants and toddlers at high risk for CP, and none for infants diagnosed with CP. Recommendation guidelines include parent–infant transaction programs. PMID:27897320

Commentary: How can family-based quasi-experimental designs and national registers be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology? A reflection on Obel et al. (2016).

PubMed

Larsson, Henrik

2016-04-01

Standard observational studies have reported a robust correlation between maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of ADHD in offspring. In the accompanying article, Obel et al. used sibling-comparisons to explore the extent to which unmeasured familial confounding explains this association. This commentary highlights three important implications of the study. At a general level, Obel et al. illustrates how (1) family-based quasi-experimental designs and (2) national registers can be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology. At a more specific level, the study suggests that maternal smoking during pregnancy is probably not a causal risk factor for ADHD. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Sport Participation and the Risk of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in Adolescents: A Population-based Prospective Cohort Study (The Young-HUNT Study).

PubMed

Johnsen, Marianne Bakke; Guddal, Maren Hjelle; Småstuen, Milada Cvancarova; Moksnes, Håvard; Engebretsen, Lars; Storheim, Kjersti; Zwart, John-Anker

2016-11-01

An anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is a severe injury that may require ACL reconstruction (ACLR) to enable the return to sport. Risk factors for ACLR have not firmly been established in the general adolescent population. To investigate the incidence and risk factors for ACLR in a population-based cohort of adolescents. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. We prospectively followed 7644 adolescents from the adolescent part of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study, included from 2006 to 2008. The main risk factors of interest were the level of sport participation (level I, II, or III) and sport competitions. The endpoint was primary ACLR recorded in the Norwegian National Knee Ligament Registry between January 2006 and December 2013. A total of 3808 boys and 3836 girls were included in the analyses. We identified 69 (0.9%) ACLRs with a median of 7.3 years of follow-up, providing an overall ACLR incidence of 38.9 (95% CI, 30.7-49.3) per 100,000 person-years. The hazard ratio (HR) for ACLR associated with level I sport participation was 3.93 (95% CI, 0.92-16.80) for boys and 3.31 (95% CI, 1.30-8.43) for girls. There was a stronger association related to participating in sport competitions. Girls had over 5 times a higher risk (HR, 5.42; 95% CI, 2.51-11.70) and boys over 4 times the risk (HR, 4.22; 95% CI, 1.58-11.30) of ACLR compared with those who did not compete. Participating in level I sports and sport competitions significantly increased the risk of undergoing primary ACLR. Preventive strategies should be implemented to reduce the incidence and future burden of ACLR. © 2016 The Author(s).

Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovsky, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Ibsen, Hans; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Jiguang; Staessen, Jan A

2014-05-01

Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

Toxicological relevance of pharmaceuticals in drinking water.

PubMed

Bruce, Gretchen M; Pleus, Richard C; Snyder, Shane A

2010-07-15

Interest in the public health significance of trace levels of pharmaceuticals in potable water is increasing, particularly with regard to the effects of long-term, low-dose exposures. To assess health risks and establish target concentrations for water treatment, human health risk-based screening levels for 15 pharmaceutically active ingredients and four metabolites were compared to concentrations detected at 19 drinking water treatment plants across the United States. Compounds were selected based on rate of use, likelihood of occurrence, and potential for toxicity. Screening levels were established based on animal toxicity data and adverse effects at therapeutic doses, focusing largely on reproductive and developmental toxicity and carcinogenicity. Calculated drinking water equivalent levels (DWELs) ranged from 0.49 microg/L (risperidone) to 20,000 microg/L (naproxen). None of the 10 detected compounds exceeded their DWEL. Ratios of DWELs to maximum detected concentrations ranged from 110 (phenytoin) to 6,000,000 (sulfamethoxazole). Based on this evaluation, adverse health effects from targeted pharmaceuticals occurring in U.S. drinking water are not expected.

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

Validation of 1-hour post-thyroidectomy parathyroid hormone level in predicting hypocalcemia

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Prior work by our group suggested that a single one hour post-thyroidectomy parathyroid hormone (1 hr PTH) level could accurately stratify patients into high and low risk groups for the development of hypocalcemia. This study looks to validate the safety and efficacy of a protocol based on a 1 hr PTH threshold of 12 pg/ml. Study design Retrospective analysis of consecutive cohort treated with standardized protocol. Methods One hundred and twenty five consecutive patients underwent total or completion thyroidectomy and their PTH level was drawn 1-hour post operatively. Based on our previous work, patients were stratified into either a low risk group (PTH < 12 pg/ml) or a high risk group (PTH ≥ 12 pg/ml). Patients in the high risk group were immediately started on prophylactic calcium carbonate (5–10 g/d) and calcitriol (0.5-1.0 mcg/d). The outcomes were then reviewed focusing mainly on how many low risk patients developed hypocalcemia (false negative rate), and how many high risk patients failed prophylactic therapy. Results Thirty one patients (25%) were stratified as high risk, and 94 (75%) as low risk. Five (16%) of the high risk patients became hypocalcemic despite prophylactic therapy. Two of the low risk group became hypocalcemic, (negative predictive value = 98%). None of the hypocalcemic patients had anything more than mild symptoms. Conclusions A single 1-hour post-thyroidectomy PTH level is a very useful way to stratify thyroidectomy patients into high and low risk groups for development of hypocalcemia. Early implementation of oral prophylactic calcium and vitamin D in the high risk patients is a very effective way to prevent serious hypocalcemia. Complex protocols requiring multiple calcium and PTH measurements are not required to guide post-thyroidectomy management. PMID:24476535

Multi scale modelling of landslide hazard and risk assessment in data scarce area - a case study on Dhalai District, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Kapil; De, Sunil Kumar

2017-04-01

Successful landslide management plans and policy depends on in-depth knowledge about the hazard and associated risk. Thus, the present research is intended to present an integrated approach involving uses of geospatial technologies for landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales (site specific to regional level). The landslide hazard map at regional scale (district level) is prepared by using weight-rating based method. To analyze landslide manifestation in the Dhalai district of Tripura different causative factor maps (lithology, road buffer, slope, relative relief, rainfall, fault buffer, landuse/landcover and drainage density) are derived. The analysis revealed that the geological structure and human interference have more influence than other considered factors on the landslide occurrences. The landslide susceptibility zonation map shows that about 1.64 and 16.68% of the total study area is falling under very high and high susceptibility zones respectively. The landslide risk assessment at district level is generated by integrating hazard scouring and resource damage potential scouring (fuzzy membership values) maps. The values of landslide risk matrix are varying within the range of 0.001 to 0.18 and the risk assessment map shows that only 0.45% (10.80 km2) of the district is under very high risk zone, whereas, about 50% pixels of existing road section are under very high to high level of landslide risk. The major part (94.06%) of the district is under very low to low risk zone. Landslide hazard and risk assessment at site specific level have been carried out through intensive field investigation in which it is found that the Ambassa landslide is located within 150 m buffer zone of fault line. Variation of geo-electrical resistivity (2.2Ωm to 31.4Ωm) indicates the complex geological character in this area. Based on the obtained geo-technical result which helps to identify the degree of risk to the existing resource, it is appropriate to implement the management plans such as construction of sub-surface drainage, extension of retaining walls, cutting/filling of slope in scientific manner. Keywords: landslide, hazard, risk, fuzzy set theory

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes of the beach. All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. In the first level the gathering of raw data is been made. In the second level data are organized in different scales. Third level, concerns the generating of new thematic data for further use. Risk assessment analysis and cost benefit analysis for protection measures is been made in level four. In the fifth level the results are transformed in user friendly form to be used by coastal managers. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale the city of Rethymnon, which at the regional vulnerability analysis was found as high vulnerable. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State.

School profiles of at-risk student concentration: Differential growth in oral reading fluency

PubMed Central

Logan, Jessica A.R.; Petscher, Yaacov

2010-01-01

The present study provides a data-driven approach to identifying groups of schools based on the concentration of at-risk students the school serves. The percentage of English language learners, minority students, and students eligible for free or reduced priced lunch were used as indicators in a latent profile analysis of 569 schools. The goal of the present study was to determine whether school-level average student reading performance varied as a function of the groups identified in the latent profile analysis. To do so, groups extracted by the latent profile analysis were used as school-level predictors of growth in oral reading fluency, which was modeled at the within-student level of a three-level hierarchical growth curve model. Oral reading fluency was measured at four points during the year in a large cross-sectional sample of first-, second-, and third-grade students. Results indicated that schools were able to be classified into four distinct groups based on their concentrations and types of at-risk students. Further, in all three grades, there were significant differences between the four identified groups observed in average reading fluency scores at the beginning of the year, the end of the year, and growth during the year indicating that groups based on school-concentration of at-risk students were significantly related to average student achievement in reading ability. PMID:20159224

Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany

PubMed Central

Maier, Werner; Schweikart, Jürgen; Keste, Andrea; Moskwyn, Marita

2018-01-01

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. Methods To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag–York–Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. Results The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. Conclusion Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk of COPD. PMID:29414997

Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany.

PubMed

Kauhl, Boris; Maier, Werner; Schweikart, Jürgen; Keste, Andrea; Moskwyn, Marita

2018-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk of COPD.

Prediction of 10-year coronary heart disease risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the UKPDS risk engine.

PubMed

Ezenwaka, C E; Nwagbara, E; Seales, D; Okali, F; Hussaini, S; Raja, Bn; Jones-LeCointe, A; Sell, H; Avci, H; Eckel, J

2009-03-06

Primary prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) in diabetic patients should be based on absolute CHD risk calculation. This study was aimed to determine the levels of 10-year CHD risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the diabetes specific United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine calculator. Three hundred and twenty-five (106 males, 219 females) type 2 diabetic patients resident in two Caribbean Islands of Tobago and Trinidad met the UKPDS risk engine inclusion criteria. Records of their sex, age, ethnicity, smoking habit, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and glycated haemoglobin were entered into the UKPDS risk engine calculator programme and the absolute 10-year CHD and stroke risk levels were computed. The 10-year CHD and stroke risks were statistically stratified into <15%, 15-30% and >30% CHD risk levels and differences between patients of African and Asian-Indian origin were compared. In comparison with patients in Tobago, type 2 diabetic patients in Trinidad, irrespective of gender, had higher proportion of 10-year CHD risk (10.4 vs. 23.6%, P<0.001) whereas the overall 10-year stroke risk prediction was higher in patients resident in Tobago (16.9 vs. 11.4%, P<0.001). Ethnicity-based analysis revealed that irrespective of gender, higher proportion of patients of Indian origin scored >30% of absolute 10-year CHD risk compared with patients of African descent (3.2 vs. 28.2%, P<0.001). The results of the study identified diabetic patients resident in Trinidad and patients of Indian origin as the most vulnerable groups for CHD. These groups of diabetic patients should have priority in primary or secondary prevention of coronary heart disease.

Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

2017-09-01

On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of High-Intensity Inpatient Sex Offender Treatment in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Smid, Wineke J; Kamphuis, Jan H; Wever, Edwin C; Van Beek, Daan J

2016-08-01

The current study quasi-experimentally assessed the outcome of high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment in the Netherlands in terms of sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism. It was hypothesized that treated sex offenders would show lower recidivism rates than untreated sex offenders of the same risk level. In line with the risk principle of the Risk, Need, Responsivity (RNR) model, we predicted that this would especially hold true for offenders of higher risk levels. The study sample consisted of 25% of all convicted Dutch sex offenders not referred to any form of treatment and discharged from prison between 1996 and 2002, and all convicted Dutch sex offenders referred to inpatient treatment who were discharged between 1996 and 2002. Static-99R risk levels of these 266 offenders were retrospectively assessed and survival curves regarding sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism were compared between treated and untreated offenders, controlling for level of risk. Mean follow-up was 148.0 months (SD = 29.6) and the base rate of sexual recidivism was 15.0% and 38.4% for violent (including sexual) recidivism. Cox regression survival analyses showed marginally significant lower failure rates regarding sexual recidivism for treated high-risk offenders only, and significantly lower failure rates regarding violent (including sexual recidivism) for treated sex offenders of moderate-high and high-risk levels. No treatment effects for low and low-moderate risk offenders were found. Results underscore the risk principle of the RNR model: Treatment is more effective when its dosage is attuned to risk level. © The Author(s) 2014.

A risk based approach for SSTO/TSTO comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenberg, Joel S.

1996-03-01

An approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. Risk considerations are necessary since the transportation systems are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization. The approach considers the uncertainty of achievement of technology goals, effect that the achieved technology level will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of nonrecurring, recurring, and the present value of transportation system life cycle costs.

Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Reliability Based Design for a Raked Wing Tip of an Airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.

2011-01-01

A reliability-based optimization methodology has been developed to design the raked wing tip of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of composite and metallic materials. Design is formulated for an accepted level of risk or reliability. The design variables, weight and the constraints became functions of reliability. Uncertainties in the load, strength and the material properties, as well as the design variables, were modeled as random parameters with specified distributions, like normal, Weibull or Gumbel functions. The objective function and constraint, or a failure mode, became derived functions of the risk-level. Solution to the problem produced the optimum design with weight, variables and constraints as a function of the risk-level. Optimum weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to a 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. Under some assumptions, this design would be quite close to the deterministic optimum solution. The weight increased when reliability exceeded 50 percent, and decreased when the reliability was compromised. A design could be selected depending on the level of risk acceptable to a situation. The optimization process achieved up to a 20-percent reduction in weight over traditional design.

A blood-based biomarker panel indicates IL-10 and IL-12/23p40 are jointly associated as predictors of β-amyloid load in an AD cohort.

PubMed

Pedrini, Steve; Gupta, Veer B; Hone, Eugene; Doecke, James; O'Bryant, Sid; James, Ian; Bush, Ashley I; Rowe, Christopher C; Villemagne, Victor L; Ames, David; Masters, Colin L; Martins, Ralph N

2017-10-25

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia, characterised by extracellular amyloid deposition as plaques and intracellular neurofibrillary tangles of tau protein. As no current clinical test can diagnose individuals at risk of developing AD, the aim of this project is to evaluate a blood-based biomarker panel to identify individuals who carry this risk. We analysed the levels of 22 biomarkers in clinically classified healthy controls (HC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's participants from the well characterised Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle (AIBL) study of aging. High levels of IL-10 and IL-12/23p40 were significantly associated with amyloid deposition in HC, suggesting that these two biomarkers might be used to detect at risk individuals. Additionally, other biomarkers (Eotaxin-3, Leptin, PYY) exhibited altered levels in AD participants possessing the APOE ε4 allele. This suggests that the physiology of some potential biomarkers may be altered in AD due to the APOE ε4 allele, a major risk factor for AD. Taken together, these data highlight several potential biomarkers that can be used in a blood-based panel to allow earlier identification of individuals at risk of developing AD and/or early stage AD for which current therapies may be more beneficial.

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming.

PubMed

Taghavi, Sayed Mohammad; Mokarami, Hamidreza; Ahmadi, Omran; Stallones, Lorann; Abbaspour, Asghar; Marioryad, Hossein

2017-01-01

Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks). Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4) were associated with the following tasks: (1) manure disposal, (2) filling feed bags, and (3) pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3). The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Evidence-based interventions for preventing substance use disorders in adolescents.

PubMed

Griffin, Kenneth W; Botvin, Gilbert J

2010-07-01

Substantial progress has been made in developing prevention programs for adolescent drug abuse. The most effective interventions target salient risk and protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels and are guided by relevant psychosocial theories regarding the etiology of substance use and abuse. This article reviews the epidemiology, etiologic risk and protective factors, and evidence-based approaches that have been found to be most effective in preventing adolescent substance use and abuse. Exemplary school- and family-based prevention programs for universal (everyone in population), selected (members of at-risk groups), and indicated (at-risk individuals) target populations are reviewed, along with model community-based prevention approaches. Challenges remain in widely disseminating evidence-based prevention programs into schools, families, and communities. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence-Based Interventions for Preventing Substance Use Disorders in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Griffin, Kenneth W.; Botvin, Gilbert J.

2010-01-01

Synopsis Substantial progress has been made in developing prevention programs for adolescent drug abuse. The most effective interventions target salient risk and protective factors at the individual, family, and/or community levels and are guided by relevant psychosocial theories regarding the etiology of substance use and abuse. This article reviews the epidemiology, etiologic risk and protective factors, and evidence-based approaches that have been found to be most effective in preventing adolescent substance use and abuse. Exemplary school and family-based prevention programs for universal (everyone in population), selected (members of at-risk groups), and indicated (at-risk individuals) target populations are reviewed, along with model community-based prevention approaches. Challenges remain in widely disseminating evidence-based prevention programs into schools, families, and communities. PMID:20682218

Low-serum GTA-446 anti-inflammatory fatty acid levels as a new risk factor for colon cancer.

PubMed

Ritchie, Shawn A; Tonita, Jon; Alvi, Riaz; Lehotay, Denis; Elshoni, Hoda; Myat, Su-; McHattie, James; Goodenowe, Dayan B

2013-01-15

Gastrointestinal tract acid-446 (GTA-446) is a long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid present in the serum. A reduction of GTA-446 levels in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients has been reported previously. Our study compared GTA-446 levels in subjects diagnosed with CRC at the time of colonoscopy to the general population. Serum samples and pathology data were collected from 4,923 representative subjects undergoing colonoscopy and from 964 subjects from the general population. Serum GTA-446 levels were determined using a triple-quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry method. A low-serum GTA-446 level was based on the bottom tenth percentile of subjects with low risk based on age (40-49 years old) in the general population. Eighty-six percent of newly diagnosed CRC subjects (87% for stages 0-II and 85% for stages III-IV) showed low-serum GTA-446 levels. A significant increase in the CRC incidence rate with age was observed in subjects with low GTA-446 levels (p = 0.019), but not in subjects with normal levels (p = 0.86). The relative risk of CRC given a low GTA-446 level was the highest for subjects under age 50 (10.1, 95% confidence interval [C.I.] = 6.4-16.4 in the reference population, and 7.7, 95% C.I. = 4.4-14.1 in the colonoscopy population, both p < 0.0001), and declined with age thereafter. The CRC incidence rate in subjects undergoing colonoscopy with low GTA-446 levels was over six times higher than for subjects with normal GTA-446 levels and twice that of subjects with gastrointestinal symptoms. The results show that a low-serum GTA-446 level is a significant risk factor for CRC, and a sensitive predictor of early-stage disease. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Impact of natural gas extraction on PAH levels in ambient air.

PubMed

Paulik, L Blair; Donald, Carey E; Smith, Brian W; Tidwell, Lane G; Hobbie, Kevin A; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N; Anderson, Kim A

2015-04-21

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as "fracking," has increased rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. PAH levels were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. Additionally, PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were an order of magnitude higher than levels previously reported in rural areas. Sourcing ratios indicate that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that elevated PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. Closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 2.9 in 10 000, which is above the U.S. EPA's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest. This work suggests that natural gas extraction may be contributing significantly to PAHs in air, at levels that are relevant to human health.

Impact of natural gas extraction on Pah levels in ambient air

PubMed Central

Paulik, L. Blair; Donald, Carey E.; Smith, Brian W.; Tidwell, Lane G.; Hobbie, Kevin A.; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N.; Anderson, Kim A.

2015-01-01

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as “fracking,” has increased rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. PAH levels were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. Additionally, PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were an order of magnitude higher than levels previously reported in rural areas. Sourcing ratios indicate that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that elevated PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. Closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 2.9 in 10,000, which is above the U.S. EPA's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest. This work suggests that natural gas extraction may be contributing significantly to PAHs in air, at levels that are relevant to human health. PMID:25810398

Calculating background levels for ecological risk parameters in toxic harbor sediment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leadon, C.J.; McDonnell, T.R.; Lear, J.; Barclift, D.

2007-01-01

Establishing background levels for biological parameters is necessary in assessing the ecological risks from harbor sediment contaminated with toxic chemicals. For chemicals in sediment, the term contaminated is defined as having concentrations above background and significant human health or ecological risk levels. For biological parameters, a site could be considered contaminated if levels of the parameter are either more or less than the background level, depending on the specific parameter. Biological parameters can include tissue chemical concentrations in ecological receptors, bioassay responses, bioaccumulation levels, and benthic community metrics. Chemical parameters can include sediment concentrations of a variety of potentially toxic chemicals. Indirectly, contaminated harbor sediment can impact shellfish, fish, birds, and marine mammals, and human populations. This paper summarizes the methods used to define background levels for chemical and biological parameters from a survey of ecological risk investigations of marine harbor sediment at California Navy bases. Background levels for regional biological indices used to quantify ecological risks for benthic communities are also described. Generally, background stations are positioned in relatively clean areas exhibiting the same physical and general chemical characteristics as nearby areas with contaminated harbor sediment. The number of background stations and the number of sample replicates per background station depend on the statistical design of the sediment ecological risk investigation, developed through the data quality objective (DQO) process. Biological data from the background stations can be compared to data from a contaminated site by using minimum or maximum background levels or comparative statistics. In Navy ecological risk assessments (ERA's), calculated background levels and appropriate ecological risk screening criteria are used to identify sampling stations and sites with contaminated sediments.

Application of the risk assessment paradigm to the induction of allergic contact dermatitis.

PubMed

Felter, Susan P; Ryan, Cindy A; Basketter, David A; Gilmour, Nicola J; Gerberick, G Frank

2003-02-01

The National Academy of Science (NAS) risk assessment paradigm has been widely accepted as a framework for estimating risk from exposure to environmental chemicals (NAS, 1983). Within this framework, quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) serve as the cornerstone of health-based exposure limits, and have been used routinely for both cancer and noncancer endpoints. These methods have focused primarily on the extrapolation of data from laboratory animals to establish acceptable levels of exposure for humans. For health effects associated with a threshold, uncertainty and variability inherent in the extrapolation process is generally dealt with by the application of "uncertainty factors (UFs)." The adaptation of QRA methods to address skin sensitization is a natural and desirable extension of current practices. Based on our chemical, cellular and molecular understanding of the induction of allergic contact dermatitis, one can conduct a QRA using established methods of identifying a NOAEL (No Observed Adverse Effect Level) or other point of departure, and applying appropriate UFs. This paper describes the application of the NAS paradigm to characterize risks from human exposure to skin sensitizers; consequently, this method can also be used to establish an exposure level for skin allergens that does not present an appreciable risk of sensitization. Copyright 2003 Elsevier Science (USA)

Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H

2007-06-01

Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation, this article compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude too low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.

Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

PubMed

Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

2011-05-01

Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

Women with high early pregnancy urinary iodine levels have an increased risk of hyperthyroid newborns: the population-based Generation R Study.

PubMed

Medici, Marco; Ghassabian, Akhgar; Visser, Willy; de Muinck Keizer-Schrama, Sabine M P F; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, W Edward; Hooijkaas, Herbert; Hofman, Albert; Steegers, Eric A P; Bongers-Schokking, Jacoba J; Ross, H Alec; Tiemeier, Henning; Visser, Theo J; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Peeters, Robin P

2014-04-01

Iodine deficiency during pregnancy results in thyroid dysfunction and has been associated with adverse obstetric and foetal effects, leading to worldwide salt iodization programmes. As nowadays 69% of the world's population lives in iodine-sufficient regions, we investigated the effects of variation in iodine status on maternal and foetal thyroid (dys)function in an iodine-sufficient population. Urinary iodine, serum TSH, free T4 (FT4) and TPO-antibody levels were determined in early pregnancy (13·3 (1·9) week; mean (SD)) in 1098 women from the population-based Generation R Study. Newborn cord serum TSH and FT4 levels were determined at birth. The median urinary iodine level was 222·5 μg/l, indicating an iodine-sufficient population. 30·8% and 11·5% had urinary iodine levels <150 and >500 μg/l, respectively. When comparing mothers with urinary iodine levels <150 vs ≥150 μg/l, and >500 vs ≤500 μg/l, there were no differences in the risk of maternal increased or decreased TSH, hypothyroxinaemia or hyperthyroidism. Mothers with urinary iodine levels >500 μg/l had a higher risk of a newborn with decreased cord TSH levels (5·6 ± 1·4 (mean ± SE) vs 2·1 ± 0·5%, P = 0·04), as well as a higher risk of a hyperthyroid newborn (3·1 ± 0·9 vs 0·6 ± 0·3%, P = 0·02). These mothers had newborns with higher cord FT4 levels (21·7 ± 0·3 vs 21·0 ± 0·1 pm, P = 0·04). Maternal urinary iodine levels <150 μg/l were not associated with newborn thyroid dysfunction. In an iodine-sufficient population, higher maternal urinary iodine levels are associated with an increased risk of a hyperthyroid newborn. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk to consumers from mercury in bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) from New Jersey: Size, season and geographical effects

PubMed Central

Burger, Joanna

2014-01-01

Relatively little attention has been devoted to the risks from mercury in saltwater fish, that were caught by recreational fisherfolk. Although the US Food and Drug Administration has issued advisories based on mercury for four saltwater species or groups of fish, there are few data on how mercury levels vary by size, season, or location. This paper examines total mercury levels in muscle of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) collected from coastal New Jersey, mainly by recreational fishermen. Of primary interest was whether there were differences in mercury levels as a function of location, weight and length of the fish, and season, and in what risk mercury posed to the food chain, including people. Selenium was also measured because of its reported protective effects against mercury. Mercury levels averaged 0.35±0.02 (mean and standard error) ppm, and selenium levels averaged 0.37±0.01ppm (N = 206). In this study, 41% of the fish had mercury levels above 0.3 ppm, 20% had levels above 0.5 ppm, and 4% had levels above 1 ppm. Size was highly correlated with mercury levels, but not with selenium. While selenium levels did not vary at all with season, mercury levels decreased significantly. This relationship was not due to differences in the size of fish, since the fish collected in the summer were the smallest, but had intermediate mercury levels. Mercury levels declined from early June until November, particularly for the smaller-sized fish. While there were significant locational differences in mercury levels (but not selenium), these differences could be a result of size. The levels of mercury in bluefish are not sufficiently high to cause problems for the bluefish themselves, based on known adverse health effects levels, but are high enough to cause potential adverse health effects in sensitive birds and mammals that eat them, and to provide a potential health risk to humans who consume them. Fish larger than 50cm fork length averaged levels above 0.3 ppm, suggesting that eating them should be avoided by pregnant women, children, and others who are at risk. PMID:19643400

Risk to consumers from mercury in bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) from New Jersey: Size, season and geographical effects.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna

2009-10-01

Relatively little attention has been devoted to the risks from mercury in saltwater fish, that were caught by recreational fisherfolk. Although the US Food and Drug Administration has issued advisories based on mercury for four saltwater species or groups of fish, there are few data on how mercury levels vary by size, season, or location. This paper examines total mercury levels in muscle of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) collected from coastal New Jersey, mainly by recreational fishermen. Of primary interest was whether there were differences in mercury levels as a function of location, weight and length of the fish, and season, and in what risk mercury posed to the food chain, including people. Selenium was also measured because of its reported protective effects against mercury. Mercury levels averaged 0.35+/-0.02 (mean and standard error)ppm, and selenium levels averaged 0.37+/-0.01ppm (N=206). In this study, 41% of the fish had mercury levels above 0.3ppm, 20% had levels above 0.5ppm, and 4% had levels above 1ppm. Size was highly correlated with mercury levels, but not with selenium. While selenium levels did not vary at all with season, mercury levels decreased significantly. This relationship was not due to differences in the size of fish, since the fish collected in the summer were the smallest, but had intermediate mercury levels. Mercury levels declined from early June until November, particularly for the smaller-sized fish. While there were significant locational differences in mercury levels (but not selenium), these differences could be a result of size. The levels of mercury in bluefish are not sufficiently high to cause problems for the bluefish themselves, based on known adverse health effects levels, but are high enough to cause potential adverse health effects in sensitive birds and mammals that eat them, and to provide a potential health risk to humans who consume them. Fish larger than 50cm fork length averaged levels above 0.3ppm, suggesting that eating them should be avoided by pregnant women, children, and others who are at risk.

The Type of Fat Ingested at Breakfast Influences the Plasma Lipid Profile of Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Morillas-Ruiz, J. M.; Delgado-Alarcon, J. M.; Rubio-Perez, J. M.; Albaladejo Oton, M. D.

2014-01-01

To assess whether the type of fat ingested at breakfast can modify the plasma lipid profile and other cardiovascular risk variables in postmenopausal women at risk of cardiovascular disease, a longitudinal, randomized, and crossover study was carried out with postmenopausal women at risk of CVD. They were randomly assigned to eat each type of breakfast during one month: 6 study periods (breakfast with the same composition plus butter/margarine/virgin olive oil) separated by two washout periods. On the first and last days of each study period, weight, arterial blood pressure, heart rate, and body mass index were recorded in fasting conditions and a blood sample was collected to measure plasma lipid profile. When comparing final values to baseline values, we only found out statistically significant differences on plasma lipid profiles. Butter-based breakfast increased total cholesterol and HDL, while margarine-based breakfast decreased total cholesterol and LDL and increased HDL. After the olive oil-based breakfast intake, a tendency towards a decrease of total cholesterol and LDL levels and an increase of HDL levels was observed. No statistically significant differences were observed in triglycerides levels, BMI, and arterial pressure in any breakfast type. The margarine-based breakfast was the only one which significantly increased the percentage of volunteers with optimal lipid profiles. The polyunsaturated fat at breakfast has improved the plasma lipid profile in the analyzed sample population, suggesting that PUFA-based breakfast can be advisable in women at risk of CVD. PMID:25136625

Chosen risk level during car-following in adverse weather conditions.

PubMed

Hjelkrem, Odd André; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen

2016-10-01

This study examines how precipitation, light conditions and surface conditions affect the drivers' risk perception. An indicator CRI (Chosen Risk Index) is defined, which describes the chosen risk level for drivers in a car-following situation. The dataset contains about 70 000 observations of driver behaviour and weather status on a rural road. Based on the theory of risk homeostasis and an assumption that driving behaviour in situations with daylight, dry road and no precipitation reflects drivers' target level of risk, generalised linear models (GLM) were estimated for cars and trucks separately to reveal the effect of adverse weather conditions on risk perception. The analyses show that both car and truck drivers perceive the highest risk when driving on snow covered roads. For car drivers, a snow covered road in combination with moderate rain or light snow are the factors which lowers the CRI the most. For trucks, snow cover and partially covered roads significantly lowers the CRI, while precipitation did not seem to impose any higher risk. Interaction effects were found for car drivers only. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic and psychosocial risks of heat illness incidents on construction site.

PubMed

Jia, Yunyan Andrea; Rowlinson, Steve; Ciccarelli, Marina

2016-03-01

The study presented in this paper aims to identify prominent risks leading to heat illness in summer among construction workers that can be prioritised for developing effective interventions. Samples are 216 construction workers' cases at the individual level and 26 construction projects cases at the organisation level. A grounded theory is generated to define the climatic heat and psychosocial risks and the relationships between risks, timing and effectiveness of interventions. The theoretical framework is then used to guide content analysis of 36 individual onsite heat illness cases to identify prominent risks. The results suggest that heat stress risks on construction site are socially constructed and can be effectively managed through elimination at supply chain level, effective engineering control, proactive control of the risks through individual interventions and reactive control through mindful recognition and response to early symptoms. The role of management infrastructure as a base for effective interventions is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Detection of Cardiovascular Disease Risk's Level for Adults Using Naive Bayes Classifier.

PubMed

Miranda, Eka; Irwansyah, Edy; Amelga, Alowisius Y; Maribondang, Marco M; Salim, Mulyadi

2016-07-01

The number of deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and stroke is predicted to reach 23.3 million in 2030. As a contribution to support prevention of this phenomenon, this paper proposes a mining model using a naïve Bayes classifier that could detect cardiovascular disease and identify its risk level for adults. The process of designing the method began by identifying the knowledge related to the cardiovascular disease profile and the level of cardiovascular disease risk factors for adults based on the medical record, and designing a mining technique model using a naïve Bayes classifier. Evaluation of this research employed two methods: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity calculation as well as an evaluation session with cardiologists and internists. The characteristics of cardiovascular disease are identified by its primary risk factors. Those factors are diabetes mellitus, the level of lipids in the blood, coronary artery function, and kidney function. Class labels were assigned according to the values of these factors: risk level 1, risk level 2 and risk level 3. The evaluation of the classifier performance (accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) in this research showed that the proposed model predicted the class label of tuples correctly (above 80%). More than eighty percent of respondents (including cardiologists and internists) who participated in the evaluation session agree till strongly agreed that this research followed medical procedures and that the result can support medical analysis related to cardiovascular disease. The research showed that the proposed model achieves good performance for risk level detection of cardiovascular disease.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea

PubMed Central

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

2017-01-01

Expert’s risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public’s risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts’ radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual’s opinions have often exacerbated the public’s confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years’ research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at < 100 millisievert could alter the public’s risk perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects < 100 millisievert is necessary for successful public communication. We concluded that sustained education addressing scientific findings is a critical attribute that will affect the risk perception of radiation exposure. PMID:28166286

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels during an assessment procedure correlate differently with risk-taking measures in male and female police recruits

PubMed Central

van den Bos, Ruud; Taris, Ruben; Scheppink, Bianca; de Haan, Lydia; Verster, Joris C.

2013-01-01

Recent laboratory studies have shown that men display more risk-taking behavior in decision-making tasks following stress, whilst women are more risk-aversive or become more task-focused. In addition, these studies have shown that sex differences are related to levels of the stress hormone cortisol (indicative of activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical-axis): the higher the levels of cortisol the more risk-taking behavior is shown by men, whereas women generally display more risk-aversive or task-focused behavior following higher levels of cortisol. Here, we assessed whether such relationships hold outside the laboratory, correlating levels of cortisol obtained during a job-related assessment procedure with decision-making parameters in the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) in male and female police recruits. The CGT allows for discriminating different aspects of reward-based decision-making. In addition, we correlated levels of alpha-amylase [indicative of activation of the sympatho-adrenomedullary-axis (SAM)] and decision-making parameters. In line with earlier studies men and women only differed in risk-adjustment in the CGT. Salivary cortisol levels correlated positively and strongly with risk-taking measures in men, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation in women. In contrast, and less strongly so, salivary alpha-amylase levels correlated positively with risk-taking in women, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation with risk-taking in men. Collectively, these data support and extend data of earlier studies indicating that risky decision-making in men and women is differently affected by stress hormones. The data are briefly discussed in relation to the effects of stress on gambling. PMID:24474909

Food safety in the domestic environment: the effect of consumer risk information on human disease risks.

PubMed

Nauta, Maarten J; Fischer, Arnout R H; van Asselt, Esther D; de Jong, Aarieke E I; Frewer, Lynn J; de Jonge, Rob

2008-02-01

The improvement of food safety in the domestic environment requires a transdisciplinary approach, involving interaction between both the social and natural sciences. This approach is applied in a study on risks associated with Campylobacter on broiler meat. First, some web-based information interventions were designed and tested on participant motivation and intentions to cook more safely. Based on these self-reported measures, the intervention supported by the emotion "disgust" was selected as the most promising information intervention. Its effect on microbial cross-contamination was tested by recruiting a set of participants who prepared a salad with chicken breast fillet carrying a known amount of tracer bacteria. The amount of tracer that could be recovered from the salad revealed the transfer and survival of Campylobacter and was used as a measure of hygiene. This was introduced into an existing risk model on Campylobacter in the Netherlands to assess the effect of the information intervention both at the level of exposure and the level of human disease risk. We showed that the information intervention supported by the emotion "disgust" alone had no measurable effect on the health risk. However, when a behavioral cue was embedded within the instruction for the salad preparation, the risk decreased sharply. It is shown that a transdisciplinary approach, involving research on risk perception, microbiology, and risk assessment, is successful in evaluating the efficacy of an information intervention in terms of human health risks. The approach offers a novel tool for science-based risk management in the area of food safety.

Intergenerational equity and environmental restoration cleanup levels.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hocking, E. K.; Environmental Assessment

2001-01-01

The United States Department of Energy environmental restoration program faces difficult decisions about the levels of cleanup to be achieved at its many contaminated sites and has acknowledged the need for considering intergenerational equity in its decision making. Intergenerational equity refers to the fairness of access to resources across generations. Environmental restoration cleanup levels can have unintended and unfair consequences for future generations access to resources. The potentially higher costs associated with using low, non-risk-based cleanup levels for remediation may divert funding from other activities that could have a greater beneficial impact on future generations. Low, non-risk-based cleanup levels couldmore » also result in more damage to the nation's resources than would occur if a higher cleanup level were used. The loss or impairment of these resources could have an inequitable effect on future generations. However, intergenerational inequity could arise if sites are not completely restored and if access to and use of natural and cultural resources are unfairly limited as a result of residual contamination. In addition to concerns about creating possible intergenerational inequities related to selected cleanup levels, the tremendous uncertainties associated with sites and their restoration can lead site planners to rely on stewardship by default. An ill-conceived stewardship program can contribute to intergenerational inequity by limiting access to resources while passing on risks to future generations and not preparing them for those risks. This paper presents a basic model and process for designing stewardship programs that can achieve equity among generations.« less

Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

2010-06-01

A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

Characterization and risk of exposure to elements from artisanal gold mining operations in the Bolivian Andes.

PubMed

Pavilonis, Brian; Grassman, Jean; Johnson, Glen; Diaz, Yilmael; Caravanos, Jack

2017-04-01

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) offers low-skilled workers an opportunity to elevate themselves out of poverty. However, this industry operates with little to no pollution controls and the cost to the environment and human health can be large. The objectives of this study were to measure levels of arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg) in the environment and characterize health risks to miners and residents in an area with active ASGM operations. An exposure assessment was conducted at two different mining sites and a nearby village in the Bolivian Anders. The resulting measurements were then used to quantify cancerous and noncancerous health risks to children and adults working at and living near ASGM areas. Soil concentrations of As were well above background levels and showed great variations between the village and mining area. Mercury vapor levels at the two mining sites were approximately 30 times larger than the EPA reference concentration. The risk of developing non-cancerous health effects were primarily due to exposure to As and Hg. The probability of individuals developing cancer was considerably increased with adult miners having a probability of 1.3 out of 100. Cancer potential was driven by exposure to As, with de minimus cancer risk from all other elements. Based on the environmental characterization of elements in soils and Hg vapors, the risk of developing cancerous and non-cancerous health outcomes were above a level of concern based on EPA risk assessment guidance. Personal protective equipment was not worn by workers and Hg amalgam is commonly heated in workers' homes. Better education of the risks of ASGM is needed as well as simple controls to reduce exposure. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Which population groups should be targeted for cardiovascular prevention? A modelling study based on the Norwegian Hordaland Health Study (HUSK).

PubMed

Brekke, Mette; Rekdal, Magne; Straand, Jørund

2007-06-01

To assess level of cardiovascular risk factors in a non-selected, middle-aged population. To estimate the proportion target for risk intervention according to present guidelines and according to different cut-off levels for two risk algorithms. Population survey, modelling study. The Norwegian Hordaland Health Study (HUSK) 1997-99. A total of 22 289 persons born in 1950-57. Own and relatives' cardiovascular morbidity, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment, smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol. Framingham and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms. The European guidelines on CVD prevention in clinical practice were applied to estimate size of risk groups. Some 9.7% of men and 7.6% of women had CVD, diabetes mellitus, a high level of one specific risk factor, or received lipid-lowering or antihypertensive treatment. Applying a SCORE (60 years) cut-off level at 5% to the rest of the population selected 52.4% of men and 0.8% of women into a primary prevention group, while a cut-off level at 8% included 22.0% and 0.06% respectively. A cut-off level for the Framingham score (60 years) of 20% selected 43.6% of men and 4.7% of women, while a cut-off level of 25% selected 25.6% of men and 1.8% of women. The findings illustrate how choices regarding risk estimation highly affect the size of the target population. Modelling studies are important when preparing guidelines, to address implications for resource allocation and risk of medicalization. The population share to be targeted for primary prevention ought to be estimated, including the impact of various cut-off points for risk algorithms on the size of the risk population.

Adverse life events as risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in a 7-year follow-up of a population-based child cohort.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Cathrine Skovmand; Nielsen, Louise Gramstrup; Petersen, Dorthe Janne; Christiansen, Erik; Bilenberg, Niels

2014-04-01

The aim of the study was to identify risk factors for significant changes in emotional and behavioural problem load in a community-based cohort of Danish children aged 9-16 years, the risk factors being seven parental and two child-related adverse life events. Data on emotional and behavioural problems was obtained from parents filling in the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) when the child was 8-9 and again when 15 years old. Data on risk factors was drawn from Danish registers. Analysis used was logistic regression for crude and adjusted change. Parental divorce significantly raised the odds ratio of an increase in emotional and behavioural problems; furthermore, the risk of deterioration in problem behaviour rose significantly with increasing number of adverse life events. By dividing the children into four groups based on the pathway in problem load (increasers, decreasers, high persisters and low persisters), we found that children with a consistently high level of behavioural problems also had the highest number of adverse life events compared with any other group. Family break-up was found to be a significant risk factor. This supports findings in previous studies. The fact that no other risk factor proved to be of significance might be due to lack of power in the study. Children experiencing high levels of adverse life events are at high risk of chronic problem behaviour. Thus these risk factors should be assessed in daily clinical practice.

Evaluating heavy metal accumulation and potential risks in soil-plant systems applied with magnesium slag-based fertilizer.

PubMed

Fan, Yuan; Li, Yongling; Li, Hua; Cheng, Fangqin

2018-04-01

Two typical Chinese soils including southern paddy soil and northern calcareous soils were used in a pot experiment to evaluate the effect of magnesium slag-based fertilizer on heavy metal accumulation and health risk in soil-plant system. The results indicated that magnesium slag-based fertilizer promoted the growth of maize plants. The concentrations of Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in both soils amended with magnesium slag-based fertilizer were qualified for the second level criterion of Standard of Soil Environment (GB 15618-2009). Accumulation of HMs exhibited partitioning characteristics in maize plants, i.e. Cr and Cu were accumulated mainly in root and leaf parts while Pb was concentrated in roots. The order of transfer factors (TF) of HMs in different plant organs was ordered as follows: root > stem > leaf > grain. It indicated that less HMs were accumulated in the grain compared with that in other organs. The estimate daily intakes and total target hazard quotient of HMs including Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn were less than 1, indicating that consumption of maize grain was at low risk and would not cause non-carcinogenic risks. From the above results, application of magnesium slag-based fertilizer at present level would not cause pollution risk for maize plants cultivated in two Chinese soils. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2015-01-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro‐level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro‐level psychology to examine individual‐level risk‐related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk‐specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory‐based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso‐level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. PMID:26720858

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

2017-05-01

With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

Serum Iron Levels and the Risk of Parkinson Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

PubMed Central

Gögele, Martin; Lill, Christina M.; Bertram, Lars; Do, Chuong B.; Eriksson, Nicholas; Foroud, Tatiana; Myers, Richard H.; Nalls, Michael; Keller, Margaux F.; Benyamin, Beben; Whitfield, John B.; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Hicks, Andrew A.; Thompson, John R.; Minelli, Cosetta

2013-01-01

Background Although levels of iron are known to be increased in the brains of patients with Parkinson disease (PD), epidemiological evidence on a possible effect of iron blood levels on PD risk is inconclusive, with effects reported in opposite directions. Epidemiological studies suffer from problems of confounding and reverse causation, and mendelian randomization (MR) represents an alternative approach to provide unconfounded estimates of the effects of biomarkers on disease. We performed a MR study where genes known to modify iron levels were used as instruments to estimate the effect of iron on PD risk, based on estimates of the genetic effects on both iron and PD obtained from the largest sample meta-analyzed to date. Methods and Findings We used as instrumental variables three genetic variants influencing iron levels, HFE rs1800562, HFE rs1799945, and TMPRSS6 rs855791. Estimates of their effect on serum iron were based on a recent genome-wide meta-analysis of 21,567 individuals, while estimates of their effect on PD risk were obtained through meta-analysis of genome-wide and candidate gene studies with 20,809 PD cases and 88,892 controls. Separate MR estimates of the effect of iron on PD were obtained for each variant and pooled by meta-analysis. We investigated heterogeneity across the three estimates as an indication of possible pleiotropy and found no evidence of it. The combined MR estimate showed a statistically significant protective effect of iron, with a relative risk reduction for PD of 3% (95% CI 1%–6%; p = 0.001) per 10 µg/dl increase in serum iron. Conclusions Our study suggests that increased iron levels are causally associated with a decreased risk of developing PD. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiological mechanism of action of serum iron on PD risk before recommendations can be made. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23750121

China's community-based strategy of universal preconception care in rural areas at a population level using a novel risk classification system for stratifying couples´ preconception health status.

PubMed

Zhou, Qiongjie; Zhang, Shikun; Wang, Qiaomei; Shen, Haiping; Tian, Weidong; Chen, Jingqi; Acharya, Ganesh; Li, Xiaotian

2016-12-28

Preconception care (PCC) is recommended for optimizing a woman's health prior to pregnancy to minimize the risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the impact of strategy and a novel risk classification model of China´s "National Preconception Health Care Project" (NPHCP) in identifying risk factors and stratifying couples' preconception health status. We performed a secondary analysis of data collected by NPHCP during April 2010 to December 2012 in 220 selected counties in China. All couples enrolled in the project accepted free preconception health examination, risk evaluation, health education and medical advice. Risk factors were categorized into five preconception risk classes based on their amenability to prevention and treatment: A-avoidable risk factors, B- benefiting from targeted medical intervention, C-controllable but requiring close monitoring and treatment during pregnancy, D-diagnosable prenatally but not modifiable preconceptionally, X-pregnancy not advisable. Information on each couple´s socio-demographic and health status was recorded and further analyzed. Among the 2,142,849 couples who were enrolled to this study, the majority (92.36%) were from rural areas with low education levels (89.2% women and 88.3% men had education below university level). A total of 1463266 (68.29%) couples had one or more preconception risk factors mainly of category A, B and C, among which 46.25% were women and 51.92% were men. Category A risk factors were more common among men compared with women (38.13% versus 11.24%; P = 0.000). This project provided new insights into preconception health of Chinese couples of reproductive age. More than half of the male partners planning to father a child, were exposed to risk factors during the preconception period, suggesting that an integrated approach to PCC including both women and men is justified. Stratification based on the new risk classification model demonstrated that a majority of the risk factors are avoidable, or preventable by medical intervention. Therefore, universal free PCC can be expected to improve pregnancy outcomes in rural China.

DCS: A Case Study of Identification of Knowledge and Disposition Gaps Using Principles of Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Steinberg, Susan; Kundrot, Craig; Charles, John

2011-01-01

The Human Research Program (HRP) is formulated around the program architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. Review of accumulated evidence forms the basis for identification of high priority risks to human health and performance in space exploration. Gaps in knowledge or disposition are identified for each risk, and a portfolio of research tasks is developed to fill them. Deliverables from the tasks inform the evidence base with the ultimate goal of defining the level of risk and reducing it to an acceptable level. A comprehensive framework for gap identification, focus, and metrics has been developed based on principles of continuous risk management and clinical care. Research towards knowledge gaps improves understanding of the likelihood, consequence or timeframe of the risk. Disposition gaps include development of standards or requirements for risk acceptance, development of countermeasures or technology to mitigate the risk, and yearly technology assessment related to watching developments related to the risk. Standard concepts from clinical care: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and surveillance, can be used to focus gaps dealing with risk mitigation. The research plan for the new HRP Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) used the framework to identify one disposition gap related to establishment of a DCS standard for acceptable risk, two knowledge gaps related to DCS phenomenon and mission attributes, and three mitigation gaps focused on prediction, prevention, and new technology watch. These gaps were organized in this manner primarily based on target for closure and ease of organizing interim metrics so that gap status could be quantified. Additional considerations for the knowledge gaps were that one was highly design reference mission specific and the other gap was focused on DCS phenomenon.

Exposure level of ergonomic risk factors in hotel industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd; Syahir Muhamad Jaffar, Mohd; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Zamani Ngali, Mohd; Pauline, Ong

2017-08-01

Ergonomic Risk Factors (ERFs) which contribute to Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs) among room attendants were considered as a problem or trouble since these ERFs would affect their work performance for hotel industries. The purpose of this study was to examine the exposure level of ERFs among room attendants in hotel industries. 65 of respondents were obtained from selected hotels in Peninsular Malaysia. Data were collected by direct observation via Workplace Ergonomic Risk Assessment (WERA) and Quick Exposure Checklist (QEC). There were 36 males and 29 females room attendants involved throughout the research. Most of room attendants experienced high exposure level for back, leg, forceful and vibration based on the exposure level evaluation through WERA while QEC results showed that all room attendants were found to have moderate exposure level for risk factors including back for movement use, shoulders/arms, wrists/hands and neck. All the results obtained showed that the related ERFs for MSDs were associated and essential ergonomic interventions are needed in order to eliminate risk of exposures to MSDs among room attendants in hotel industries.

Determination and risk assessment of naturally occurring genotoxic and carcinogenic alkenylbenzenes in nutmeg-based plant food supplements.

PubMed

Al-Malahmeh, Amer J; Alajlouni, Abdalmajeed M; Ning, Jia; Wesseling, Sebastiaan; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

2017-10-01

A risk assessment of nutmeg-based plant food supplements (PFS) containing different alkenylbenzenes was performed based on the alkenylbenzene levels quantified in a series of PFS collected via the online market. The estimated daily intake (EDI) of the alkenylbenzenes amounted to 0.3 to 312 μg kg -1 body weight (bw) for individual alkenylbenzenes, to 1.5 to 631 μg kg -1 bw when adding up the alkenylbenzene levels assuming equal potency, and to 0.4 to 295 μg kg -1 bw when expressed in safrole equivalents using toxic equivalency factors (TEFs). The margin of exposure approach (MOE) was used to evaluate the potential risks. Independent of the method used for the intake estimate, the MOE values obtained were generally lower than 10000 indicating a priority for risk management. When taking into account that PFS may be used for shorter periods of time and using Haber's rule to correct for shorter than lifetime exposure it was shown that limiting exposure to only 1 or 2 weeks would result in MOE values that would be, with the presently determined levels of alkenylbenzenes and proposed uses of the PFS, of low priority for risk management (MOE > 10000). It is concluded that the results of the present paper reveal that nutmeg-based PFS consumption following recommendations for daily intake especially for longer periods of time raise a concern. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Toxicities and risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Taihu Lake, China, based on sediment quality guidelines.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanfeng; Han, Yuwei; Yang, Jinxi; Zhu, Lingyan; Zhong, Wenjue

2017-12-01

The occurrence, toxicities, and ecological risks of five heavy metals (Pb, Cu, Cd, Zn and Ni) in the sediment of Taihu Lake were investigated in this study. To evaluate the toxicities caused by the heavy metals, the toxicities induced by organic contaminants and ammonia in the sediments were screened out with activated carbon and zeolite. The toxicities of heavy metals in sediments were tested with benthic invertebrates (tubificid and chironomid). The correlations between toxicity of sediment and the sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) derived previously were evaluated. There were significant correlations (p<0.0001) between the observed toxicities and the total risk quotients of the heavy metals based on SQGs, indicating that threshold effect level (TEL) and probable effect level (PEL) were reliable to predict the toxicities of heavy metals in the sediments of Taihu Lake. By contrast, the method based on acid volatile sulfides (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM), such as ∑SEM/AVS and ∑SEM-AVS, did not show correlations with the toxicities. Moreover, the predictive ability of SQGs was confirmed by a total predicting accuracy of 77%. Ecological risk assessment based on TELs and PELs showed that the contaminations of Pb, Cu, Cd and Zn in the sediments of Taihu Lake were at relatively low or medium levels. The risks caused by heavy metals in the sediments of northern bay of the lake, which received more wastewater discharge from upper stream, were higher than other area of the lake. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS

PubMed Central

Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

2016-01-01

In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013–2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes. PMID:27499677

Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS.

PubMed

Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

2016-05-18

In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013-2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes.

Affective and cognitive factors influencing sensitivity to probabilistic information.

PubMed

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Sawicki, Przemyslaw

2011-11-01

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Machine-Learning-Based Electronic Triage More Accurately Differentiates Patients With Respect to Clinical Outcomes Compared With the Emergency Severity Index.

PubMed

Levin, Scott; Toerper, Matthew; Hamrock, Eric; Hinson, Jeremiah S; Barnes, Sean; Gardner, Heather; Dugas, Andrea; Linton, Bob; Kirsch, Tom; Kelen, Gabor

2018-05-01

Standards for emergency department (ED) triage in the United States rely heavily on subjective assessment and are limited in their ability to risk-stratify patients. This study seeks to evaluate an electronic triage system (e-triage) based on machine learning that predicts likelihood of acute outcomes enabling improved patient differentiation. A multisite, retrospective, cross-sectional study of 172,726 ED visits from urban and community EDs was conducted. E-triage is composed of a random forest model applied to triage data (vital signs, chief complaint, and active medical history) that predicts the need for critical care, an emergency procedure, and inpatient hospitalization in parallel and translates risk to triage level designations. Predicted outcomes and secondary outcomes of elevated troponin and lactate levels were evaluated and compared with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI). E-triage predictions had an area under the curve ranging from 0.73 to 0.92 and demonstrated equivalent or improved identification of clinical patient outcomes compared with ESI at both EDs. E-triage provided rationale for risk-based differentiation of the more than 65% of ED visits triaged to ESI level 3. Matching the ESI patient distribution for comparisons, e-triage identified more than 10% (14,326 patients) of ESI level 3 patients requiring up triage who had substantially increased risk of critical care or emergency procedure (1.7% ESI level 3 versus 6.2% up triaged) and hospitalization (18.9% versus 45.4%) across EDs. E-triage more accurately classifies ESI level 3 patients and highlights opportunities to use predictive analytics to support triage decisionmaking. Further prospective validation is needed. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Associations Between Peer Harassment and School Risk and Protection Profiles.

PubMed

Gloppen, Kari M; Gower, Amy L; McMorris, Barbara J; Eisenberg, Marla E

2017-11-01

Peer harassment can have serious implications for students' success and well-being, and prevention programs need to consider the school context. This study aimed to: (1) identify groups of similar schools based on their risk and protective factors and demographic characteristics and (2) examine associations between school profiles and students' bullying involvement. Data came from 505 schools and 122,106 students who completed the 2013 Minnesota Student Survey. School-level risk and protective factors and demographic characteristics were included in a latent profile analysis (LPA) to identify profiles of schools. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess associations between school profiles and peer harassment. Six qualitatively different school profiles were identified. Unadjusted models showed that schools with higher levels of risk had greater odds of peer harassment. However, after controlling for student-level risk and protection, regardless of school-level risk, students in metro-area schools with a more diverse student body reported lower odds of bullying involvement. These findings highlight the importance of the social environment into peer harassment. In addition to addressing student-level risk and protection, larger community factors and norms also need to be taken into account for developing, selecting, and implementing the most effective approaches to bullying prevention. © 2017, American School Health Association.

Study on financial risk towards individual investor as strategy to improve urban community empowerment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, F. M.; Aprilia, A.

2018-01-01

Investor will be always influenced by its risk tolerance when investing, each investor has own risk tolerance that differ to another, although this still being questioned until now. This research aimed to know the influence of demography factor in distinguish and classify Financial Risk Tolerance (FRT) and Financial Risk Taking Behavior (FRB) to individual investor. Methodology in this research is data that used as primary data which distributed by offline and online. The sample in this research is 642 respondents in Jakarta. Logistic regression is analyze method that used in this research. The research found that there is influence of gender, marital, status, education and income level to Financial Risk Tolerance (FRT) and Financial Risk Taking Behavior (FRB). For FRT significantly 0.000 for gender and marital status; 0.010 for education and 0.001 for income level. Whereas for FRB significantly 0.000 for gender; 0.003 for marital status and 0.010 for education level. The research contribution is crucial for financial advisor to notice the characteristic investor based on demography factor such as gender, marital, status, education level and income level. Therefore, this research able to give optional decision for appropriate investment to clients as ones of strategy to improve urban community empowerment.

Assessment of heavy metals in tilapia fish (Oreochromis niloticus) from the Langat River and Engineering Lake in Bangi, Malaysia, and evaluation of the health risk from tilapia consumption.

PubMed

Taweel, Abdulali; Shuhaimi-Othman, M; Ahmad, A K

2013-07-01

Concentrations of the heavy metals copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb) and nickel (Ni) were determined in the liver, gills and muscles of tilapia fish from the Langat River and Engineering Lake, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia. There were differences in the concentrations of the studied heavy metals between different organs and between sites. In the liver samples, Cu>Zn>Ni>Pb>Cd, and in the gills and muscle, Zn>Ni>Cu>Pb>Cd. Levels of Cu, Cd, Zn and Pb in the liver samples from Engineering Lake were higher than in those from the Langat River, whereas the Ni levels in the liver samples from the Langat River were greater than in those from Engineering Lake. Cd levels in the fish muscle from Engineering Lake were lower than in that from the Langat River. Meanwhile, the Cd, Zn and Pb levels in the fish muscle from the Langat River were lower than in that from Engineering Lake, and the Ni levels were almost the same in the fish muscle samples from the two sites. The health risks associated with Cu, Cd, Zn, Pb and Ni were assessed based on the target hazard quotients. In the Langat River, the risk from Cu is minimal compared to the other studied elements, and the concentrations of Pb and Ni were determined to pose the greatest risk. The maximum allowable fish consumption rates (kg/d) based on Cu in Engineering Lake and the Langat River were 2.27 and 1.51 in December and 2.53 and 1.75 in February, respectively. The Cu concentrations resulted in the highest maximum allowable fish consumption rates compared with the other studied heavy metals, whereas those based on Pb were the lowest. A health risk analysis of the heavy metals measured in the fish muscle samples indicated that the fish can be classified at one of the safest levels for the general population and that there are no possible risks pertaining to tilapia fish consumption. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emissions of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons from Natural Gas Extraction into Air.

PubMed

Paulik, L Blair; Donald, Carey E; Smith, Brian W; Tidwell, Lane G; Hobbie, Kevin A; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N; Anderson, Kim A

2016-07-19

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as "fracking", has increased rapidly in the United States in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. Levels of benzo[a]pyrene, phenanthrene, and carcinogenic potency of PAH mixtures were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were comparable to levels previously reported in rural areas in winter. Sourcing ratios indicated that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. At sites closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 0.04 in a million, which is below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest from them. This work suggests that natural gas extraction is contributing PAHs to the air, at levels that would not be expected to increase cancer risk.

Perceived Risk in College Selection: Differences in Evaluative Criteria Used by Students and Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warwick, Jacquelyn; Mansfield, Phylis M.

2003-01-01

Students and parents base college selection on how well the college will overcome the perceived financial, social, psychological, physical, and functional risks associated with the college experience. Nineteen criteria associated with these risks were evaluated for significant differences between students and parents as well as for their level of…

Development of a decision support system to manage contamination in marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Dagnino, A; Viarengo, A

2014-01-01

In recent years, contamination and its interaction with climate-change variables have been recognized as critical stressors in coastal areas, emphasizing the need for a standardized framework encompassing chemical and biological data into risk indices to support decision-making. We therefore developed an innovative, expert decision support system (Exp-DSS) for the management of contamination in marine coastal ecosystems. The Exp-DSS has two main applications: (i) to determine environmental risk and biological vulnerability in contaminated sites; and (ii) to support the management of waters and sediments by assessing the risk due to the exposure of biota to these matrices. The Exp-DSS evaluates chemical data, both as single compounds and as total toxic pressure of the mixture, to compare concentrations to effect-based thresholds (TELs and PELs). Sites are then placed into three categories of contamination: uncontaminated, mildly contaminated, and highly contaminated. In highly contaminated sites, effects on high-level ecotoxicological endpoints (i.e. survival and reproduction) are used to determine risk at the organism-population level, while ecological parameters (i.e. alterations in community structure and ecosystem functions) are considered for assessing effects on biodiversity. Changes in sublethal biomarkers are utilized to assess the stress level of the organisms in mildly contaminated sites. In Triad studies, chemical concentrations, ecotoxicological high-level effects, and ecological data are combined to determine the level of environmental risk in highly contaminated sites; chemical concentration and ecotoxicological sublethal effects are evaluated to determine biological vulnerability in mildly contaminated sites. The Exp-DSS was applied to data from the literature about sediment quality in estuarine areas of Spain, and ranked risks related to exposure to contaminated sediments from high risk (Huelva estuary) to mild risk (Guadalquivir estuary and Bay of Cadiz). A spreadsheet-based version of the Exp-DSS is available at the MEECE and DiSIT web sites (www.meece.eu and www.disit.unipmn.it). © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

PubMed Central

Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

2013-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management. PMID:24191144

Using agent-based modeling to study multiple risk factors and multiple health outcomes at multiple levels.

PubMed

Yang, Yong

2017-11-01

Most health studies focus on one health outcome and examine the influence of one or multiple risk factors. However, in reality, various pathways, interactions, and associations exist not only between risk factors and health outcomes but also among the risk factors and among health outcomes. The advance of system science methods, Big Data, and accumulated knowledge allows us to examine how multiple risk factors influence multiple health outcomes at multiple levels (termed a 3M study). Using the study of neighborhood environment and health as an example, I elaborate on the significance of 3M studies. 3M studies may lead to a significantly deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions among risk factors and outcomes and could help us design better interventions that may be of particular relevance for upstream interventions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a promising method in the 3M study, although its potentials are far from being fully explored. Future challenges include the gap of epidemiologic knowledge and evidence, lack of empirical data sources, and the technical challenges of ABM. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Statin Eligibility in Primary Prevention: From a Risk-Based Strategy to a Personalized Approach Based on the Predicted Benefit.

PubMed

Cesena, Fernando H Y; Laurinavicius, Antonio G; Valente, Viviane A; Conceição, Raquel D; Nasir, Khurram; Santos, Raul D; Bittencourt, Marcio S

2018-06-01

Guidelines have recommended statin initiation based on the absolute cardiovascular risk. We tested the hypothesis that a strategy based on the predicted cardiovascular benefit, compared with the risk-based approach, modifies statin eligibility and the estimated benefit in a population in primary cardiovascular prevention. The study included 16,008 subjects (48 ± 6 years, 73% men) with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of 70 to <190 mg/dl, not on lipid-lowering drugs, who underwent a routine health screening in a single center. For the risk-based strategy, criterion for statin eligibility was defined as a 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk of ≥7.5%. In the benefit-based strategy, subjects were considered for statin according to the predicted absolute cardiovascular risk reduction, so that the number of statin candidates would be the same as in the risk-based strategy. The benefit-based strategy would replace 11% of statin candidates allocated in the risk-based approach with younger, lower risk subjects with higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Using the benefit-based strategy, 13% of subjects with 5.0% to < 7.5% ASCVD risk would shift from a statin-ineligible to a statin-eligible status, whereas 24% of those with 7.5% to <10.0% ASCVD risk would become statin ineligible. These effects would transfer the benefit from higher to lower risk subjects. In the entire population, no clinically meaningful change in the benefit would be expected. In conclusion, switching from a risk-based strategy to a benefit-based approach, while keeping the same rate of statin use in the population, is expected to promote substantial changes in statin eligibility in subjects at intermediate cardiovascular risk, modifying the subpopulation to be benefited by the treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges in global ballast water management.

PubMed

Endresen, Øyvind; Lee Behrens, Hanna; Brynestad, Sigrid; Bjørn Andersen, Aage; Skjong, Rolf

2004-04-01

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied.

Maternal experiences of racism and violence as predictors of preterm birth: rationale and study design.

PubMed

Rich-Edwards, J; Krieger, N; Majzoub, J; Zierler, S; Lieberman, E; Gillman, M

2001-07-01

Chronic psychological stress may raise the risk of preterm delivery by raising levels of placental corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH). Women who have been the targets of racism or personal violence may be at particularly high risk of preterm delivery. The aims of this study are to examine the extent to which: (1) maternal experiences of racism or violence in childhood, adulthood, or pregnancy are associated with the risk of preterm birth; (2) CRH levels are prospectively associated with risk of preterm birth; and (3) CRH levels are associated with past and current maternal experiences of racism or violence. We have begun to examine these questions among women enrolled in Project Viva, a Boston-based longitudinal study of 6000 pregnant women and their children.

Educational Levels and Risk of Suicide in Japan: The Japan Public Health Center Study (JPHC) Cohort I.

PubMed

Kimura, Takashi; Iso, Hiroyasu; Honjo, Kaori; Ikehara, Satoyo; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-06-05

Suicide rates have been related to educational level and other socioeconomic statuses. However, no prospective study has examined the association between educational level and the risk of suicide in Japan. We examined the association of education level and suicide risk in a population-based cohort of Japanese men and women aged 40-59 years in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study Cohort I. In the baseline survey initiated in 1990, a total of 46 156 subjects (21 829 men and 24 327 women) completed a self-administered questionnaire, which included a query of educational level, and were followed up until the end of December 2011. Educational levels were categorized into four groups (junior high school, high school, junior or career college, and university or higher education). During a median follow-up of 21.6 years, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of suicide according to educational level were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusted for age; study area; previous history of stroke, ischemic heart disease, or cancer; self-reported stress; alcohol consumption; smoking; living with spouse; and employment status. A total of 299 deaths attributed to suicide occurred. The HR for university graduates or those with higher education versus junior high school graduates was 0.47 (95% CI, 0.24-0.94) in men, and that for high school graduates versus junior high school graduates was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.24-0.79) in women. High educational levels were associated with a reduced risk of suicide for both Japanese men and women.

Averting group failures in collective-risk social dilemmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaojie; Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2012-09-01

Free-riding on a joint venture bears the risk of losing personal endowment as the group may fail to reach the collective target due to insufficient contributions. A collective-risk social dilemma emerges, which we here study in the realm of the spatial public goods game with group-performance-dependent risk levels. Instead of using an overall fixed value, we update the risk level in each group based on the difference between the actual contributions and the declared target. A single parameter interpolates between a step-like risk function and virtual irrelevance of the group's performance in averting the failure, thus bridging the two extremes constituting maximal and minimal feedback. We show that stronger feedback between group performance and risk level is in general more favorable for the successful evolution of public cooperation, yet only if the collective target to be reached is moderate. Paradoxically, if the goals are overambitious, intermediate feedback strengths yield optimal conditions for cooperation. This can be explained by the propagation of players that employ identical strategies but experience different individual success while trying to cope with the collective-risk social dilemma.

A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colegrove, Amanda

Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

Maternal and Birth Characteristics and Childhood Embryonal Solid Tumors: A Population-Based Report from Brazil.

PubMed

de Paula Silva, Neimar; de Souza Reis, Rejane; Garcia Cunha, Rafael; Pinto Oliveira, Júlio Fernando; Santos, Marceli de Oliveira; Pombo-de-Oliveira, Maria S; de Camargo, Beatriz

2016-01-01

Several maternal and birth characteristics have been reported to be associated with an increased risk of many childhood cancers. Our goal was to evaluate the risk of childhood embryonal solid tumors in relation to pre- and perinatal characteristics. A case-cohort study was performed using two population-based datasets, which were linked through R software. Tumors were classified as central nervous system (CNS) or non-CNS-embryonal (retinoblastoma, neuroblastoma, renal tumors, germ cell tumors, hepatoblastoma and soft tissue sarcoma). Children aged <6 years were selected. Adjustments were made for potential confounders. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed by unconditional logistic regression analysis using SPSS. Males, high maternal education level, and birth anomalies were independent risk factors. Among children diagnosed older than 24 months of age, cesarean section (CS) was a significant risk factor. Five-minute Apgar ≤8 was an independent risk factor for renal tumors. A decreasing risk with increasing birth order was observed for all tumor types except for retinoblastoma. Among children with neuroblastoma, the risk decreased with increasing birth order (OR = 0.82 (95% CI 0.67-1.01)). Children delivered by CS had a marginally significantly increased OR for all tumors except retinoblastoma. High maternal education level showed a significant increase in the odds for all tumors together, CNS tumors, and neuroblastoma. This evidence suggests that male gender, high maternal education level, and birth anomalies are risk factors for childhood tumors irrespective of the age at diagnosis. Cesarean section, birth order, and 5-minute Apgar score were risk factors for some tumor subtypes.

Gender-based violence, alcohol use, and sexual risk among female patrons of drinking venues in Cape Town, South Africa.

PubMed

Pitpitan, Eileen V; Kalichman, Seth C; Eaton, Lisa A; Cain, Demetria; Sikkema, Kathleen J; Skinner, Donald; Watt, Melissa H; Pieterse, Desiree

2013-06-01

Gender-based violence is a well-recognized risk factor for HIV infection among women. Alcohol use is associated with both gender-based violence and sexual risk behavior, but has not been examined as a correlate of both in a context of both high HIV risk and hazardous drinking. The purpose of this paper is to examine the association between recent abuse by a sex partner with alcohol and sexual risk behavior among female patrons of alcohol serving venues in South Africa. Specifically, the aim of this study is to determine whether sexual risk behaviors are associated with gender-based violence after controlling for levels of alcohol use. We surveyed 1,388 women attending informal drinking establishments in Cape Town, South Africa to assess recent history of gender-based violence, drinking, and sexual risk behaviors. Gender-based violence was associated with both drinking and sexual risk behaviors after controlling for demographics among the women. A hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that after controlling for alcohol use sexual risk behavior remained significantly associated with gender-based violence, particularly with meeting a new sex partner at the bar, recent STI diagnosis, and engaging in transactional sex, but not protected intercourse or number of partners. In South Africa where heavy drinking is prevalent women may be at particular risk of physical abuse from intimate partners as well as higher sexual risk. Interventions that aim to reduce gender-based violence and sexual risk behaviors must directly work to reduce drinking behavior.

Gender-based Violence, Alcohol use, and Sexual Risk Among Female Patrons of Drinking Venues in Cape Town, South Africa

PubMed Central

Pitpitan, Eileen V.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Eaton, Lisa A.; Cain, Demetria; Sikkema, Kathleen J.; Skinner, Donald; Watt, Melissa H.; Pieterse, Desiree

2013-01-01

Gender-based violence is a well-recognized risk factor for HIV infection among women. Alcohol use is associated with both gender-based violence and sexual risk behavior, but has not been examined as a correlate of both in a context of both high HIV risk and hazardous drinking. The purpose of this paper is to examine the association between recent abuse by a sex partner with alcohol and sexual risk behavior among female patrons of alcohol serving venues in South Africa. Specifically, the aim of this study is to determine whether sexual risk behaviors are associated with gender-based violence after controlling for levels of alcohol use. We surveyed 1,388 women attending informal drinking establishments in Cape Town, South Africa to assess recent history of gender-based violence, drinking, and sexual risk behaviors. Gender-based violence was associated with both drinking and sexual risk behaviors after controlling for demographics among the women. A hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that after controlling for alcohol use sexual risk behavior remained significantly associated with gender-based violence, particularly with meeting a new sex partner at the bar, recent STI diagnosis, and engaging in transactional sex, but not protected intercourse or number of partners. In South Africa where heavy drinking is prevalent women may be at particular risk of physical abuse from intimate partners as well as higher sexual risk. Interventions that aim to reduce gender-based violence and sexual risk behaviors must directly work to reduce drinking behavior. PMID:22526526

A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

2015-06-01

In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

2017-12-01

In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems and networks. The implemented assessment singled out future perspectives of water scarcity risk levels for irrigated agriculture by the administrative extent where individual bodies are in charge of the coordination of public and private irrigation activities (i.e. Reclamation Consortia). Based on the outcomes of the proposed methodology, tailored and knowledge-based adaptation strategies and related actions can be developed, to reduce the risk at both agronomic level (i.e. preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (i.e. differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Guo-Fu; Lyu, Hai-Min; Lu, Lin-Hai; Li, Gang; Arulrajah, Arul

2017-01-01

Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic International System (GIS). Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring. PMID:28946709

Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China.

PubMed

Wang, Guo-Fu; Lyu, Hai-Min; Shen, Jack Shuilong; Lu, Lin-Hai; Li, Gang; Arulrajah, Arul

2017-09-25

Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic International System (GIS). Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

[Remuneration distribution - should morbidity-dependent overall remuneration also be distributed after adjustments for morbidity?].

PubMed

Walendzik, A; Trottmann, M; Leonhardt, R; Wasem, J

2013-04-01

In the 2009 reform of the German collective remuneration system for outpatient medical care, on the level of overall remuneration, the morbidity risk was transferred to the health funds fulfilling a long-term demand of physicians. Nevertheless not transferring morbidity adjustment to the levels of physician groups and singular practices can lead to budgets not related to patient needs and to incentives for risk selection for individual doctors. The systematics of the distribution of overall remuneration in the German remuneration system for outpatient care are analysed focusing on the aspect of morbidity adjustment. Using diagnostic and pharmaceutical information of about half a million insured subjects, a risk adjustment model able to predict individual expenditures for outpatient care for different provider groups is presented. This model enables to additively split the individual care burden into several parts attributed to different physician groups. Conditions for the use of the model in the distribution of overall remuneration between physician groups are developed. A simulation of the use of diagnoses-based risk adjustment in standard service volumes then highlights the conditions for a successfull installation of standard service volumes representing a higher degree of risk adjustment. The presented estimation model is generally applicable for the distribution of overall remuneration to different physician groups. The simulation of standard service volumes using diagnosis-based risk adjustment does not provide a more accurate prediction of the expenditures on the level of physician practices than the age-related calculation currently used in the German remuneration system for outpatient medical care. Using elements of morbidity-based risk adjustment the current German collective system for outpatient medical care could be transformed towards a higher degree of distributional justice concerning medical care for patients and more appropriate incentives avoiding risk selection. Limitations of the applicability of risk-adjustment can be especially pointed out when a high share of lump-sum-payments is used for the remuneration of some physician groups. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities.

PubMed

Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P; Bijlsma, Lubertus; Castiglioni, Sara; de Voogt, Pim; Emke, Erik; Hernández, Félix; Lai, Foon Yin; Lopes, Alvaro; de Alda, Miren López; Mastroianni, Nicola; Munro, Kelly; O'Brien, Jake; Ort, Christoph; Plósz, Benedek G; Reid, Malcolm J; Yargeau, Viviane; Thomas, Kevin V

2016-09-15

Quantitative measurement of drug consumption biomarkers in wastewater can provide objective information on community drug use patterns and trends. This study presents the measurement of alcohol consumption in 20 cities across 11 countries through the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), and reports the application of these data for the risk assessment of alcohol on a population scale using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Raw 24-h composite wastewater samples were collected over a one-week period from 20 cities following a common protocol. For each sample a specific and stable alcohol consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE. The average per capita consumption in 20 cities ranged between 6.4 and 44.3L/day/1000 inhabitants. An increase in alcohol consumption during the weekend occurred in all cities, however the level of this increase was found to differ. In contrast to conventional data (sales statistics and interviews), WBE revealed geographical differences in the level and pattern of actual alcohol consumption at an inter-city level. All the sampled cities were in the "high risk" category (MOE<10) and the average MOE for the whole population studied was 2.5. These results allowed direct comparisons of alcohol consumption levels, patterns and risks among the cities. This study shows that WBE can provide timely and complementary information on alcohol use and alcohol associated risks in terms of exposure at the community level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-Based Decision Making Case Study: Application at a Superfund Cleanup.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blacker, Stanley; Goodman, Daniel

1994-01-01

Describes a case study comparing an integrated approach to Superfund cleanup with traditional approaches at a particular Superfund site. Emphasizes ways to save time and money while still achieving the desired risk reduction level. (LZ)

National and subnational mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 17 occupational risk factors in Iran, 1990-2015.

PubMed

Abtahi, Mehrnoosh; Koolivand, Ali; Dobaradaran, Sina; Yaghmaeian, Kamyar; Khaloo, Shokooh Sadat; Jorfi, Sahand; Keshmiri, Saeed; Nafez, Amir Hossein; Saeedi, Reza

2018-04-26

We estimated age-sex specific and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 17 individual occupational risks in Iran at the national and subnational levels in 1990-2015 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015). The burden of disease attributable to occupational risk factors was calculated using the comparative risk assessment methodology based on 10 outcomes and 21 risk-outcome pairs. The temporal changes in the attributable burden of disease were decomposed into the contribution of population growth, population ageing, risk-deleted DALY rate, and risk exposure. National DALYs attributable to occupational risks at the national level in 1990, 2005, and 2015 were 138,210 (95% uncertainty interval 64,429-223,028), 193,243 (91,645-310,281), and 228,310 (106,782-371,709), respectively indicating a total increase of 65% (65-67) during the study period. Between 1990 and 2015, the share of the attributable DALYs for women rose by 55% (51-58) from 13% (12-14) to 20% (19-21). The proportion of YLLs in national DALYs attributable to occupational risks during the study period slightly decreased from 24% in 1990 to 23% in 2015. The five occupational risks with the highest contributions in the national attributable DALYs in 2015 were ergonomic factors (107,490), noise (52,122), exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes (26,847), asthmagens (19,347), and exposure to asbestos (7842). From 1990 to 2015, the increase in total DALYs attributable to occupational carcinogens (112%) was higher than that for other occupational risks. During the study period, changes in risk deleted DALY rate and risk exposure led to decreases in total DALYs attributable to occupational risks by 14% and 30%, respectively. Based on the Gini coefficient, spatial inequality in DALY rate attributable to occupational risks at the provincial level decreased during 1990-2015. A comprehensive plan for management of exposure to occupational risks, especially occupational carcinogens can cause an important effect for control of the increasing trend of occupational health losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of the apolipoprotein E genotype on response to personalized dietary advice intervention: findings from the Food4Me randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Fallaize, Rosalind; Celis-Morales, Carlos; Macready, Anna L; Marsaux, Cyril Fm; Forster, Hannah; O'Donovan, Clare; Woolhead, Clara; San-Cristobal, Rodrigo; Kolossa, Silvia; Hallmann, Jacqueline; Mavrogianni, Christina; Surwillo, Agnieszka; Livingstone, Katherine M; Moschonis, George; Navas-Carretero, Santiago; Walsh, Marianne C; Gibney, Eileen R; Brennan, Lorraine; Bouwman, Jildau; Grimaldi, Keith; Manios, Yannis; Traczyk, Iwona; Drevon, Christian A; Martinez, J Alfredo; Daniel, Hannelore; Saris, Wim Hm; Gibney, Michael J; Mathers, John C; Lovegrove, Julie A

2016-09-01

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) risk allele (ɛ4) is associated with higher total cholesterol (TC), amplified response to saturated fatty acid (SFA) reduction, and increased cardiovascular disease. Although knowledge of gene risk may enhance dietary change, it is unclear whether ɛ4 carriers would benefit from gene-based personalized nutrition (PN). The aims of this study were to 1) investigate interactions between APOE genotype and habitual dietary fat intake and modulations of fat intake on metabolic outcomes; 2) determine whether gene-based PN results in greater dietary change than do standard dietary advice (level 0) and nongene-based PN (levels 1-2); and 3) assess the impact of knowledge of APOE risk (risk: E4+, nonrisk: E4-) on dietary change after gene-based PN (level 3). Individuals (n = 1466) recruited into the Food4Me pan-European PN dietary intervention study were randomly assigned to 4 treatment arms and genotyped for APOE (rs429358 and rs7412). Diet and dried blood spot TC and ω-3 (n-3) index were determined at baseline and after a 6-mo intervention. Data were analyzed with the use of adjusted general linear models. Significantly higher TC concentrations were observed in E4+ participants than in E4- (P < 0.05). Although there were no significant differences in APOE response to gene-based PN (E4+ compared with E4-), both groups had a greater reduction in SFA (percentage of total energy) intake than at level 0 (mean ± SD: E4+, -0.72% ± 0.35% compared with -1.95% ± 0.45%, P = 0.035; E4-, -0.31% ± 0.20% compared with -1.68% ± 0.35%, P = 0.029). Gene-based PN was associated with a smaller reduction in SFA intake than in nongene-based PN (level 2) for E4- participants (-1.68% ± 0.35% compared with -2.56% ± 0.27%, P = 0.025). The APOE ɛ4 allele was associated with higher TC. Although gene-based PN targeted to APOE was more effective in reducing SFA intake than standard dietary advice, there was no difference between APOE "risk" and "nonrisk" groups. Furthermore, disclosure of APOE nonrisk may have weakened dietary response to PN. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530139. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Measurement and risk adjustment of prelabor cesarean rates in a large sample of California hospitals.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D; Currid-Halkett, Elizabeth; Doctor, Jason N

2014-05-01

Prelabor cesareans in women without a prior cesarean is an important quality measure, yet one that is seldom tracked. We estimated patient-level risks and calculated how sensitive hospital rankings on this proposed quality metric were to risk adjustment. This retrospective cohort study linked Californian patient data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality with hospital-level operational and financial data. Using the outcome of primary prelabor cesarean, we estimated patient-level logistic regressions in progressively more detailed models. We assessed incremental fit and discrimination, and aggregated the predicted patient-level event probabilities to construct hospital-level rankings. Of 408,355 deliveries by women without prior cesareans at 254 hospitals, 11.0% were prelabor cesareans. Including age, ethnicity, race, insurance, weekend and unscheduled admission, and 12 well-known patient risk factors yielded a model c-statistic of 0.83. Further maternal comorbidities, and hospital and obstetric unit characteristics only marginally improved fit. Risk adjusting hospital rankings led to a median absolute change in rank of 44 places compared to rankings based on observed rates. Of the 48 (49) hospitals identified as in the best (worst) quintile on observed rates, only 23 (18) were so identified by the risk-adjusted model. Models predict primary prelabor cesareans with good discrimination. Systematic hospital-level variation in patient risk factors requires risk adjustment to avoid considerably different classification of hospitals by outcome performance. An opportunity exists to define this metric and report such risk-adjusted outcomes to stakeholders. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Differential prevalence of established risk factors for poor cessation outcomes among smokers by level of social anxiety.

PubMed

Watson, Noreen L; Heffner, Jaimee L; McClure, Jennifer B; Mull, Kristen E; Bricker, Jonathan B

2017-03-01

Despite clear associations between social anxiety (SA), high prevalence of smoking, and cessation failure, little is known about factors contributing to these relationships. Moreover, the extent to which smokers with moderate SA represent an at-risk group of smokers is also unknown. This study examined the extent to which established risk factors for poor cessation (eg, sociodemographic, smoking history, mental health comorbidity) are prevalent among smokers with low, moderate, and high levels of SA. Participants (N = 2,637) were adult smokers from a web-based smoking cessation trial. Nineteen characteristics considered risk factors for poor cessation outcomes were assessed at baseline. Those associated with social anxiety were subsequently compared by SA level. Regression models indicated that 10/19 risk factors were associated with SA. Compared to smokers with low SA, those with moderate and high SA endorsed 4/10 and 10/10 risk factors as more prevalent or severe, respectively. Compared to smokers with low SA, High SA was associated with greater sociodemographic risk factors, while both moderate and high SA was associated with more severe mental health symptoms. Smokers with moderate and high levels of SA endorse more risk factors for poor cessation outcomes than those with low levels of SA, particularly mental health symptoms. These factors may help explain the differential smoking outcomes of socially anxious smokers. Results suggest that smokers with both moderate and high levels of SA would likely benefit from cessation interventions that address and consider these risk factors. (Am J Addict 2017;26:176-182). © 2017 American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Differential Prevalence of Established Risk Factors for Poor Cessation Outcomes among Smokers by Level of Social Anxiety

PubMed Central

Watson, Noreen L.; Heffner, Jaimee L.; McClure, Jennifer B.; Mull, Kristen E.; Bricker, Jonathan B.

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives Despite clear associations between social anxiety (SA), high prevalence of smoking, and cessation failure, little is known about factors contributing to these relationships. Moreover, the extent to which smokers with moderate SA represent an at-risk group of smokers is also unknown. This study examined the extent to which established risk factors for poor cessation (e.g., sociodemographic, smoking history, mental health comorbidity) are prevalent among smokers with low, moderate, and high levels of SA. Methods Participants (N = 2,637) were adult smokers from a web-based smoking cessation trial. Nineteen characteristics considered risk factors for poor cessation outcomes were assessed at baseline. Those associated with social anxiety were subsequently compared by SA level. Results Regression models indicated that 10/19 risk factors were associated with SA. Compared to smokers with low SA, those with moderate and high SA endorsed 4/10 and 10/10 risk factors as more prevalent or severe, respectively. Compared to smokers with low SA, High SA was associated with greater sociodemographic risk factors, while both moderate and high SA was associated with more severe mental health symptoms. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Smokers with moderate and high levels of SA endorse more risk factors for poor cessation outcomes than those with low levels of SA, particularly mental health symptoms. These factors may help explain the differential smoking outcomes of socially anxious smokers. Results suggest that smokers with both moderate and high levels of SA would likely benefit from cessation interventions that address and consider these risk factors. PMID:28191916

Cancer genetic risk assessment and referral patterns in primary care.

PubMed

Vig, Hetal S; Armstrong, Joanne; Egleston, Brian L; Mazar, Carla; Toscano, Michele; Bradbury, Angela R; Daly, Mary B; Meropol, Neal J

2009-12-01

This study was undertaken to describe cancer risk assessment practices among primary care providers (PCPs). An electronic survey was sent to PCPs affiliated with a single insurance carrier. Demographic and practice characteristics associated with cancer genetic risk assessment and testing activities were described. Latent class analysis supported by likelihood ratio tests was used to define PCP profiles with respect to the level of engagement in genetic risk assessment and referral activity based on demographic and practice characteristics. 860 physicians responded to the survey (39% family practice, 29% internal medicine, 22% obstetrics/gynecology (OB/GYN), 10% other). Most respondents (83%) reported that they routinely assess hereditary cancer risk; however, only 33% reported that they take a full, three-generation pedigree for risk assessment. OB/GYN specialty, female gender, and physician access to a genetic counselor were independent predictors of referral to cancer genetics specialists. Three profiles of PCPs, based upon referral practice and extent of involvement in genetics evaluation, were defined. Profiles of physician characteristics associated with varying levels of engagement with cancer genetic risk assessment and testing can be identified. These profiles may ultimately be useful in targeting decision support tools and services.

Spanish Guidelines for Management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (GesEPOC) 2017. Pharmacological Treatment of Stable Phase.

PubMed

Miravitlles, Marc; Soler-Cataluña, Juan José; Calle, Myriam; Molina, Jesús; Almagro, Pere; Quintano, José Antonio; Trigueros, Juan Antonio; Cosío, Borja G; Casanova, Ciro; Antonio Riesco, Juan; Simonet, Pere; Rigau, David; Soriano, Joan B; Ancochea, Julio

2017-06-01

The clinical presentation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies widely, so treatment must be tailored according to the level of risk and phenotype. In 2012, the Spanish COPD Guidelines (GesEPOC) first established pharmacological treatment regimens based on clinical phenotypes. These regimens were subsequently adopted by other national guidelines, and since then, have been backed up by new evidence. In this 2017 update, the original severity classification has been replaced by a much simpler risk classification (low or high risk), on the basis of lung function, dyspnea grade, and history of exacerbations, while determination of clinical phenotype is recommended only in high-risk patients. The same clinical phenotypes have been maintained: non-exacerbator, asthma-COPD overlap (ACO), exacerbator with emphysema, and exacerbator with bronchitis. Pharmacological treatment of COPD is based on bronchodilators, the only treatment recommended in low-risk patients. High-risk patients will receive different drugs in addition to bronchodilators, depending on their clinical phenotype. GesEPOC reflects a more individualized approach to COPD treatment, according to patient clinical characteristics and level of risk or complexity. Copyright © 2017 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Real-World Health Care Costs Based on Medication Adherence and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Patients Treated with Novel Anticoagulant Therapy.

PubMed

Deshpande, Chinmay G; Kogut, Stephen; Willey, Cynthia

2018-05-01

With the lack of real-world evidence, the challenge for drug reimbursement policy decision makers is to understand medication adherence behavior among users of novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and its effect on overall cost savings. No study has examined and quantified the burden of cost in high-risk patients taking NOAC therapy. To examine the association of cost with adherence, comorbidity, and risk of stroke and bleeding in patients taking NOACs (rivaroxaban and dabigatran). A retrospective cohort study used deidentified data from a commercial managed care database affiliated with Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2012). Patients aged 18 years and older with ≥ 1 diagnosis of atrial fibrillation/flutter, > 1 NOAC prescription, 6-month pre-index and 12-month post-index continuous enrollment, and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥ 1 were included. Adherence was calculated using proportion of days covered (PDC ≥ 80%) over an assessment period of 3, 6, and 12 months and compared based on level of comorbidity, stroke, and bleeding risk. The adjusted annual health care costs per patient (drug, medical, and total) were calculated using multivariable gamma regression controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics and compared across groups based on adherence over 12 months, baseline level of comorbidity, and risk of stroke and bleeding. Of 25,120 NOAC patients, 2,981 patients were included in the final cohort. Based on a PDC threshold of ≥ 80%, the adherence rate over 3, 6, and 12 months was 72%, 65%, and 54%, respectively. For all time periods, the level of adherence significantly increased (P < 0.001), with an increase in stroke risk (based on CHA 2 DS 2 VASc scores of 1, 2-3, and 4+); comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index scores of 0, 1-2, and 3+); and risk of bleeding (HAS-BLED scores of 0-1, 2, and 3+). Adjusted all-cause total cost calculated for a 12-month period was significantly lower ($29,742 vs. $33,609) among adherent versus nonadherent users. Drug cost was higher ($5,595 vs. $2,233) among adherent versus nonadherent patients but was offset by lower medical costs ($23,544 vs. $30,485) costs. The overall cost significantly increased for patients with a high risk of bleeding and a high level of comorbidity. Adherence to NOAC therapy led to a reduction in overall health care cost, since higher drug costs were offset by lower medical (inpatient and outpatient) costs among adherent patients. Cost information based on adherence and risk of stroke and bleeding can help formulary decision makers to assess risk-benefit and help clinicians in developing interventions to reduce patient burden. Funding to acquire the data source was provided by the University of Rhode Island College of Pharmacy, Kingston, to support PhD dissertation work. Deshpande is currently an employee of Pharmerit International.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Plasma folate levels and risk of spontaneous abortion.

PubMed

George, Lena; Mills, James L; Johansson, Anna L V; Nordmark, Anna; Olander, Bodil; Granath, Fredrik; Cnattingius, Sven

2002-10-16

Both folate deficiency and folic acid supplements have been reported to increase the risk of spontaneous abortion. The results are inconclusive, however, and measurements of folate have not been available in all studies. To study the association between plasma folate levels and the risk of spontaneous abortion. Population-based, matched, case-control study of case women with spontaneous abortion and control women from January 1996 through December 1998 in Uppsala County, Sweden. Plasma folate measurements were available for 468 cases and 921 controls at 6 to 12 gestational weeks. Risk of spontaneous abortion vs maternal plasma folate level. Compared with women with plasma folate levels between 2.20 and 3.95 ng/mL (5.0 and 8.9 nmol/L), women with low (< or =2.19 ng/mL [< or =4.9 nmol/L]) folate levels were at increased risk of spontaneous abortion (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-2.14), whereas women with higher folate levels (3.96-6.16 ng/mL [9.0-13.9 nmol/L] and > or =6.17 ng/mL [> or =14.0 nmol/L]) showed no increased risk of spontaneous abortion (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.59-1.20; and OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.47-1.16, respectively). Low folate levels were associated with a significantly increased risk when the fetal karyotype was abnormal (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.09-3.48) but not when the fetal karyotype was normal (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.55-2.24) or unknown (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.90-2.33). Low plasma folate levels were associated with an increased risk of early spontaneous abortion.

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular risk: recommendations for treatment.

PubMed

Palmeiro, Christopher; Davila, Maria I; Bhat, Mallika; Frishman, William H; Weiss, Irene A

2013-01-01

Subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHy), the mildest form of hyperthyroidism, is diagnosed in patients having a persistently low or undetectable serum concentration of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with normal free T4 and T3 concentrations. Although overt hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, the cardiovascular risk of SHy is controversial. Multiple studies have demonstrated an increased risk of atrial fibrillation, especially in older individuals with TSH levels <0.1 mU/L. The effects of SHy on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality are not clear, but recent meta-analyses suggest a modest increase in mortality, with the risk increasing with age and associated with the lowest TSH levels. The long-term consequences of SHy in young- and middle-aged adults, and in those with TSH levels are mildly low, are uncertain. For these reasons, guidelines for treatment are based on patient age, the degree of TSH suppression, symptoms consistent with hyperthyroidism, and overall cardiovascular and osteoporotic fracture risks.

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

PubMed

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

2017-04-20

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

An Individual-based Model for Extrapolating Standard Toxicity Test Data into Population-level Adverse Outcomes in the Fathead Minnow

EPA Science Inventory

While environmental toxicity testing typically focuses on organism-level endpoints such as mortality, growth, and reproduction, risk assessment guidelines specify protection goals at the level of the population and above. One method of linking these different levels of biological...

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Identification and prediction of group-based glycemic control trajectories during the transition to adolescence.

PubMed

Rohan, Jennifer M; Rausch, Joseph R; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan M; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2014-10-01

To identify trajectories of glycemic control over a period of 3 years in a pediatric sample of youth diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes transitioning to adolescence. A second aim was to examine a set of modifiable individual and family level baseline predictors of glycemic control group membership. This multisite, prospective study included 239 children and adolescents (ages 9-11 years at baseline) diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) collected at 6-month intervals over a period of 3 years. Predictors of glycemic control membership included baseline global executive functioning, diabetes self-management, diabetes-specific family conflict, blood glucose monitoring frequency, and relevant individual and family level covariates. Group-based trajectory analyses were used to describe patterns of glycemic control from baseline to 36 months and 3 trajectories were identified: low risk (42.9%), elevated risk (44.6%), and high risk (12.1%) subgroups. Baseline maternal-reported family conflict, blood glucose monitoring frequency, and gender were significant predictors of glycemic control group membership. Higher levels of baseline family conflict, lower frequency of blood glucose monitoring, and female gender were associated with elevated and high-risk group membership. These findings underscore the importance of examining trajectories of HbA1c across time. These results suggest that problematic trajectories of glycemic control are evident during the transition to adolescence. Furthermore, there are modifiable individual and family level characteristics that predict group membership and hence could be targeted in interventions to ensure adequate glycemic control is maintained over time and that risks for diabetes-related complications are reduced.

Identification and Prediction of Group-Based Glycemic Control Trajectories during the Transition to Adolescence

PubMed Central

Rohan, Jennifer M.; Rausch, Joseph R.; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan M.; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2014-01-01

Objective To identify trajectories of glycemic control over a period of three years in a pediatric sample of youth diagnosed with type 1 diabetes transitioning to adolescence. A second aim was to examine a set of modifiable individual and family-level baseline predictors of glycemic control group membership. Methods This multisite, prospective study included 239 children and adolescents (ages 9–11 years at baseline) diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) collected at six month intervals over a period of three years. Predictors of glycemic control membership included baseline global executive functioning, diabetes self-management, diabetes-specific family conflict, blood glucose monitoring frequency, and relevant individual and family level covariates. Results Group-based trajectory analyses were used to describe patterns of glycemic control from baseline to 36 months and three trajectories were identified: low risk (42.9%), elevated risk (44.6%), and high risk (12.1%) subgroups. Baseline maternal-reported family conflict, blood glucose monitoring frequency, and gender were significant predictors of glycemic control group membership. Higher levels of baseline family conflict, lower frequency of blood glucose monitoring, and female gender were associated with elevated and high risk group membership. Conclusions These findings underscore the importance of examining trajectories of HbA1c across time. These results suggest that problematic trajectories of glycemic control are evident during the transition to adolescence. Furthermore, there are modifiable individual and family-level characteristics that predict group membership and hence could be targeted in interventions to ensure adequate glycemic control is maintained over time and that risks for diabetes-related complications are reduced. PMID:24274797

Conflicts and dilemmas in prevention of cardiovascular disease. The new, Norwegian guidelines--a new approach to risk management.

PubMed

Gjelsvik, Bjørn

2012-03-01

Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been debated for many years, between an organ-specialist perspective versus a public health view. As an illustration, the Wonca Europe Council decided in 2004 to withdraw its support to the 2003 European Guidelines. This paper discusses the main sources of disagreement, most important the levels of risk when treatment should be offered. The Norwegian Guideline for primary prevention of CVD (2009) introduced a new principle of age-differentiated risk levels. Pharmacological treatment should be offered to all persons aged 40-49 years with 10-year mortality risk ≥ 1%, all persons aged 50-59 years at ≥ 5% risk, and all persons aged 60-69 years at ≥ 10% risk. Lower thresholds for younger persons are based on the fact that life years lost, will be considerable if drugs are prescribed only for risk levels above 5%. For persons aged 60-69 years, age is the dominant risk factor and the benefits of treatment are smaller. The implications of the recommendation are discussed, both at an individual and a societal level. Compared to the European 2007 guidelines, the total sum of life years gained is about the same, but the number of patients treated is considerably lower.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-01

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture. PMID:27911854

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data

PubMed Central

Karmali, Kunal N.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Zanchetti, Alberto; Jackson, Rodney; Woodward, Mark; Neal, Bruce C.; Berge, Eivind; Teo, Koon; Davis, Barry R.; Pepine, Carl

2018-01-01

Background Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level. Methods and findings We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists’ Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70–0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53–0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%–31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%–18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%–5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD. Conclusions A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention. PMID:29558462

Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

PubMed

Karmali, Kunal N; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; van der Leeuw, Joep; Goff, David C; Yusuf, Salim; Zanchetti, Alberto; Glasziou, Paul; Jackson, Rodney; Woodward, Mark; Rodgers, Anthony; Neal, Bruce C; Berge, Eivind; Teo, Koon; Davis, Barry R; Chalmers, John; Pepine, Carl; Rahimi, Kazem; Sundström, Johan

2018-03-01

Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level. We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD. A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

Serum levels of nerve growth factor (NGF) in patients with major depression disorder and suicide risk.

PubMed

Wiener, Carolina David; de Mello Ferreira, Sharon; Pedrotti Moreira, Fernanda; Bittencourt, Guilherme; de Oliveira, Jacqueline Flores; Lopez Molina, Mariane; Jansen, Karen; de Mattos Souza, Luciano Dias; Rizzato Lara, Diogo; Portela, Luiz Valmor; da Silva, Ricardo Azevedo; Oses, Jean Pierre

2015-09-15

Nerve growth factor (NGF) is an important member of the neurotrophins group and their involvement in the pathophysiology of major depression disorder (MDD) and suicide risk (SR) has been recently suggested. The aim of this study is to evaluate the changes in NGF serum levels in individuals with MDD and with or without risk of suicide, in subjects from a young population-based sample. This is a paired cross-sectional study nested in a population-based study. Individuals were rated for MDD and SR by a diagnostic interview--Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I). The total population of the sample was comprised of 141 subjects distributed in three groups: 47 healthy controls, 47 subjects with current depressive episode without SR (MDD) and 47 subjects with current depressive episode and with SR (MDD + SR). NGF serum levels were significantly reduced in the MDD and MDD + SR groups when compared with controls (p ≤ 0.001). However, there were no differences in NGF levels between the MDD and MDD + SR groups (p = 1.000). These results suggest that reduced NGF serum levels can be a possible biomarker of MDD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

PubMed

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Survey of patulin occurrence in apple juice and apple products in Catalonia, Spain, and an estimate of dietary intake.

PubMed

Cano-Sancho, G; Marin, S; Ramos, A J; Sanchis, V

2009-01-01

This study was conducted to assess patulin exposure in the Catalonian population. Patulin levels were determined in 161 apple juice samples, 77 solid apple-based food samples and 146 apple-based baby food samples obtained from six hypermarkets and supermarkets from twelve main cities of Catalonia, Spain. Patulin was analysed by a well-established validated method involving ethyl acetate extraction and direct analysis by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with ultraviolet light detection. Mean patulin levels for positive samples in apple juice, solid apple-based food and apple-based baby food were 8.05, 13.54 and 7.12 µg kg(-1), respectively. No samples exceeded the maximum permitted levels established by European Union regulation. Dietary intake was separately assessed for babies, infants and adults through a Food Frequency Questionnaire developed from 1056 individuals from Catalonia. Babies were the main group exposed to patulin, however no risk was detected at these levels of contamination. Adults and infants consumers were far from risk levels. Another approach to determine estimated exposure was conducted through Monte Carlo simulation that distinguishes variability in exposures from uncertainty of distributional parameter estimates.

Ecological risk assessment of microcystin-LR in the upstream section of the Haihe River based on a species sensitivity distribution model.

PubMed

Niu, Zhiguang; Du, Lei; Li, Jiafu; Zhang, Ying; Lv, Zhiwei

2018-02-01

The eutrophication of surface water has been the main problem of water quality management in recent decades, and the ecological risk of microcystin-LR (MC-LR), which is the by-product of eutrophication, has drawn more attention worldwide. The aims of our study were to determine the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) of MC-LR and to assess the ecological risk of MC-LR in the upstream section of the Haihe River. HC 5 (hazardous concentration for 5% of biological species) and PNEC were obtained from a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model, which was constructed with the acute toxicity data of MC-LR on aquatic organisms. The concentrations of MC-LR in the upstream section of the Haihe River from April to August of 2015 were analysed, and the ecological risk characteristics of MC-LR were evaluated based on the SSD model. The results showed that the HC 5 of MC-LR in freshwater was 17.18 μg/L and PNEC was 5.73 μg/L. The concentrations of MC-LR ranged from 0.68 μg/L to 32.21 μg/L and were obviously higher in summer than in spring. The values of the risk quotient (RQ) ranged from 0.12 to 5.62, suggesting that the risk of MC-LR for aquatic organisms in the river was at a medium or high level during the study period. Compared with other waterbodies in the world, the pollution level of MC-LR in the Haihe River was at a moderate level. This research could promote the study of the ecological risk of MC-LR at the ecosystem level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival As a Quality Metric of Cancer Care: Use of the National Cancer Data Base to Assess Hospital Performance.

PubMed

Shulman, Lawrence N; Palis, Bryan E; McCabe, Ryan; Mallin, Kathy; Loomis, Ashley; Winchester, David; McKellar, Daniel

2018-01-01

Survival is considered an important indicator of the quality of cancer care, but the validity of different methodologies to measure comparative survival rates is less well understood. We explored whether the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) could serve as a source of unadjusted and risk-adjusted cancer survival data and whether these data could be used as quality indicators for individual hospitals or in the aggregate by hospital type. The NCDB, an aggregate of > 1,500 hospital cancer registries, was queried to analyze unadjusted and risk-adjusted hazards of death for patients with stage III breast cancer (n = 116,787) and stage IIIB or IV non-small-cell lung cancer (n = 252,392). Data were analyzed at the individual hospital level and by hospital type. At the hospital level, after risk adjustment, few hospitals had comparative risk-adjusted survival rates that were statistically better or worse. By hospital type, National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer centers had risk-adjusted survival ratios that were statistically significantly better than those of academic cancer centers and community hospitals. Using the NCDB as the data source, survival rates for patients with stage III breast cancer and stage IIIB or IV non-small-cell lung cancer were statistically better at National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer centers when compared with other hospital types. Compared with academic hospitals, risk-adjusted survival was lower in community hospitals. At the individual hospital level, after risk adjustment, few hospitals were shown to have statistically better or worse survival, suggesting that, using NCDB data, survival may not be a good metric to determine relative quality of cancer care at this level.

Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

2013-04-01

Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as earthquake data of the US Geological Survey (USGS). The asset database to identify the elements at risk is developed under consideration of an address dataset, the land-use plan, official building footprints, building heights based on a normalized digital surface model, official construction costs for different building types (buildings cross cubatures), official statistical data concerning households on community level and insurance data based mean inventory values. To analyse the structural vulnerability and consequently the potential structural losses, community specific mean damage ratios based on the EMS-98 approach and the historic development of the building stock within the individual communities are estimated. Inventory losses are assumed with 30 percent of the structural losses. Thus, for each epicentre a loss-frequency-relationship can be calculated and the most severe epicentral scenarios can be identified.

Association Between Educational Level and Risk of Cancer in HIV-infected Individuals and the Background Population: Population-based Cohort Study 1995-2011.

PubMed

Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Dalton, Susanne O; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels

2015-11-15

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have increased risk of cancer. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of socioeconomic position on risk and prognosis of cancer in HIV infection. Population-based cohort-study, including HIV-infected individuals diagnosed (without intravenous drug abuse or hepatitis C infection) (n = 3205), and a background population cohort matched by age, gender, and country of birth (n = 22 435) were analyzed. Educational level (low or high) and cancer events were identified in Danish national registers. Cumulative incidences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and survival using Kaplan-Meier methods were estimated. Low educational level was associated with increased risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to population controls: all (adjusted-IRRs: 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.7] vs 1.1 [95% CI, .9-1.2]), tobacco- and alcohol-related (2.1 [95% CI, 1.3-3.4] vs 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.6]), and other (1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8] vs 0.9 [95% CI, .7-1.0]). Educational level was not associated with infection-related or ill-defined cancers. One-year-survival was not associated with educational level, but HIV-infected individuals with low educational level had lower 5-year-survival following infection-related and ill-defined cancers. Education is associated with risk and prognosis of some cancers in HIV infection, and diverges from what is observed in the background population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Status of lipid management using lifestyle modification in Japanese adults: an analysis of the 2009 Japan Society of Ningen Dock database.

PubMed

Takahashi, Eiko; Moriyama, Kengo; Yamakado, Minoru

2013-01-01

The Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) has recommended serum lipid management goals (SLMGs) based on the coronary heart disease (CHD) risk classification included in its 2007 guidelines for the diagnosis and prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Japanese population (JAS GL 2007). The Japan Society of Ningen Dock created a database of subjects receiving annual health examinations. Using this database, we evaluated the lifestyles of patients with dyslipidemia by identifying risk factors for CHD development based on the JAS recommendations. A total of 223,407 adults (men: 138,435; women: 84,972) aged between 20 and 79 years were enrolled in the analysis. Those who were already being treated for dyslipidemia and had a history of CHD were excluded. CHD risk factors in the JAS GL 2007, such as an advanced age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking habits, a family history of coronary artery disease, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, were used for the evaluation. The subjects were categorized into three groups (Categories I, II and III) according to the number of risk factors other than the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level. We evaluated the percentage of goals met during primary prevention in each group. The serum LDL-C levels were calculated using the Friedewald formula. The LDL-C levels were measured using a direct homogeneous assay if the triglyceride level was ≥400 mg/dL. Overall, 72.9% of the subjects achieved their SLMGs. Most subjects (>90%) with no CHD risk factors other than the LDL-C level in Category I achieved their SLMGs, while less than half of the subjects in Category III achieved their goal. Smoking cessation and medication administration should be considered in patients in Categories II and III.

Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

2017-05-01

Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

EPA Science Inventory

Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be ap...

Impact of pesticide exposure misclassification on estimates of relative risks in the Agricultural Health Study.

PubMed

Blair, Aaron; Thomas, Kent; Coble, Joseph; Sandler, Dale P; Hines, Cynthia J; Lynch, Charles F; Knott, Charles; Purdue, Mark P; Zahm, Shelia Hoar; Alavanja, Michael C R; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Kamel, Freya; Hoppin, Jane A; Freeman, Laura Beane; Lubin, Jay H

2011-07-01

The Agricultural Health Study (AHS) is a prospective study of licensed pesticide applicators and their spouses in Iowa and North Carolina. We evaluate the impact of occupational pesticide exposure misclassification on relative risks using data from the cohort and the AHS Pesticide Exposure Study (AHS/PES). We assessed the impact of exposure misclassification on relative risks using the range of correlation coefficients observed between measured post-application urinary levels of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and a chlorpyrifos metabolite and exposure estimates based on an algorithm from 83 AHS pesticide applications. Correlations between urinary levels of 2,4-D and a chlorpyrifos metabolite and algorithm estimated intensity scores were about 0.4 for 2,4-D (n=64), 0.8 for liquid chlorpyrifos (n=4) and 0.6 for granular chlorpyrifos (n=12). Correlations of urinary levels with kilograms of active ingredient used, duration of application, or number of acres treated were lower and ranged from -0.36 to 0.19. These findings indicate that a priori expert-derived algorithm scores were more closely related to measured urinary levels than individual exposure determinants evaluated here. Estimates of potential bias in relative risks based on the correlations from the AHS/PES indicate that non-differential misclassification of exposure using the algorithm would bias estimates towards the null, but less than that from individual exposure determinants. Although correlations between algorithm scores and urinary levels were quite good (ie, correlations between 0.4 and 0.8), exposure misclassification would still bias relative risk estimates in the AHS towards the null and diminish study power.

Assessment of total cardiovascular risk using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts in three low and middle income countries in Asia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent research has used cardiovascular risk scores intended to estimate “total cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk” in individuals to assess the distribution of risk within populations. The research suggested that the adoption of the total risk approach, in comparison to treatment decisions being based on the level of a single risk factor, could lead to reductions in expenditure on preventive cardiovascular drug treatment in low- and middle-income countries. So that the patient benefit associated with savings is highlighted. Methods This study used data from national STEPS surveys (STEPwise Approach to Surveillance) conducted between 2005 and 2010 in Cambodia, Malaysia and Mongolia of men and women aged 40–64 years. The study compared the differences and implications of various approaches to risk estimation at a population level using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk score charts. To aid interpretation and adjustment of scores and inform treatment in individuals, the charts are accompanied by practice notes about risk factors not included in the risk score calculations. Total risk was calculated amongst the populations using the charts alone and also adjusted according to these notes. Prevalence of traditional single risk factors was also calculated. Results The prevalence of WHO/ISH “high CVD risk” (≥20% chance of developing a cardiovascular event over 10 years) of 6%, 2.3% and 1.3% in Mongolia, Malaysia and Cambodia, respectively, is in line with recent research when charts alone are used. However, these proportions rise to 33.3%, 20.8% and 10.4%, respectively when individuals with blood pressure > = 160/100 mm/Hg and/or hypertension medication are attributed to “high risk”. Of those at “moderate risk” (10- < 20% chance of developing a cardio vascular event over 10 years), 100%, 94.3% and 30.1%, respectively are affected by at least one risk-increasing factor. Of all individuals, 44.6%, 29.0% and 15.0% are affected by hypertension as a single risk factor (systolic ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic ≥ 90 mmHg or medication). Conclusions Used on a population level, cardiovascular risk scores may offer useful insights that can assist health service delivery planning. An approach based on overall risk without adjustment of specific risk factors however, may underestimate treatment needs. At the individual level, the total risk approach offers important clinical benefits. However, countries need to develop appropriate clinical guidelines and operational guidance for detection and management of CVD risk using total CVD-risk approach at different levels of health system. Operational research is needed to assess implementation issues. PMID:23734670

Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad; Hall, Jim W.; Guillod, Benoit P.

2018-03-01

Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes. In this paper, we expand risk-based decision analysis to explore possible ways of enhancing robustness in engineered water resources systems under different risk attitudes. Risk is measured as the expected annual cost of water use restrictions, while robustness is interpreted in the decision-theoretic sense as the ability of a water resource system to maintain performance—expressed as a tolerable risk of water use restrictions—under a wide range of possible future conditions. Linking risk attitudes with robustness allows stakeholders to explicitly trade-off incremental increases in robustness with investment costs for a given level of risk. We illustrate the framework through a case study of London's water supply system using state-of-the -art regional climate simulations to inform the estimation of risk and robustness.

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

[New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

PubMed

Augustin, Jean-Christophe

2015-01-01

The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

Food groups for allergen risk assessment: Combining food consumption data from different countries in Europe.

PubMed

Birot, Sophie; Madsen, Charlotte B; Kruizinga, Astrid G; Crépet, Amélie; Christensen, Tue; Brockhoff, Per B

2018-05-18

To prevent allergic reactions, food producers have to be able to make a knowledge based decision on whether to label their products with precautionary labelling. As many manufactured food products are sold in different countries across Europe, the allergen risk assessment should be estimated at the European levels. As currently, there are no pan-European food data suitable for food allergy risk assessment. The aim of this paper is to investigate if consumption data, at a meal level, from National Food Consumption Surveys, can be combined to form a common Food Consumption database. In this first attempt we developed a procedure to investigate, if national food consumption data can be combined and grouped using data from Netherlands, France and Denmark. The homogeneity of consumption patterns and the relevance of difference in risk of allergic reaction were compared, using a fixed framework of allergen concentration levels and threshold distribution. Thus, the relevance of using common consumption data across countries was verified. The food groups formed were subsequently evaluated and adjusted based on practical considerations. It resulted in designing 61 food groups that can be used for allergen risk assessment. The summary statistics and descriptive names for each food group are included. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neonicotinoids target distinct nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and neurons, leading to differential risks to bumblebees

PubMed Central

Moffat, Christopher; Buckland, Stephen T.; Samson, Andrew J.; McArthur, Robin; Chamosa Pino, Victor; Bollan, Karen A.; Huang, Jeffrey T.-J.; Connolly, Christopher N.

2016-01-01

There is growing concern over the risk to bee populations from neonicotinoid insecticides and the long-term consequences of reduced numbers of insect pollinators to essential ecosystem services and food security. Our knowledge of the risk of neonicotinoids to bees is based on studies of imidacloprid and thiamethoxam and these findings are extrapolated to clothianidin based on its higher potency at nicotinic acetylcholine receptors. This study addresses the specificity and consequences of all three neonicotinoids to determine their relative risk to bumblebees at field-relevant levels (2.5 ppb). We find compound-specific effects at all levels (individual cells, bees and whole colonies in semi-field conditions). Imidacloprid and clothianidin display distinct, overlapping, abilities to stimulate Kenyon cells, indicating the potential to differentially influence bumblebee behavior. Bee immobility was induced only by imidacloprid, and an increased vulnerability to clothianidin toxicity only occurred following chronic exposure to clothianidin or thiamethoxam. At the whole colony level, only thiamethoxam altered the sex ratio (more males present) and only clothianidin increased queen production. Finally, both imidacloprid and thiamethoxam caused deficits in colony strength, while no detrimental effects of clothianidin were observed. Given these findings, neonicotinoid risk needs to be considered independently for each compound and target species. PMID:27124107

Neonicotinoids target distinct nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and neurons, leading to differential risks to bumblebees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffat, Christopher; Buckland, Stephen T.; Samson, Andrew J.; McArthur, Robin; Chamosa Pino, Victor; Bollan, Karen A.; Huang, Jeffrey T.-J.; Connolly, Christopher N.

2016-04-01

There is growing concern over the risk to bee populations from neonicotinoid insecticides and the long-term consequences of reduced numbers of insect pollinators to essential ecosystem services and food security. Our knowledge of the risk of neonicotinoids to bees is based on studies of imidacloprid and thiamethoxam and these findings are extrapolated to clothianidin based on its higher potency at nicotinic acetylcholine receptors. This study addresses the specificity and consequences of all three neonicotinoids to determine their relative risk to bumblebees at field-relevant levels (2.5 ppb). We find compound-specific effects at all levels (individual cells, bees and whole colonies in semi-field conditions). Imidacloprid and clothianidin display distinct, overlapping, abilities to stimulate Kenyon cells, indicating the potential to differentially influence bumblebee behavior. Bee immobility was induced only by imidacloprid, and an increased vulnerability to clothianidin toxicity only occurred following chronic exposure to clothianidin or thiamethoxam. At the whole colony level, only thiamethoxam altered the sex ratio (more males present) and only clothianidin increased queen production. Finally, both imidacloprid and thiamethoxam caused deficits in colony strength, while no detrimental effects of clothianidin were observed. Given these findings, neonicotinoid risk needs to be considered independently for each compound and target species.

Level of Sedentary Behavior and Its Associated Factors among Saudi Women Working in Office-Based Jobs in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Albawardi, Nada M; Jradi, Hoda; Almalki, Abdulla A; Al-Hazzaa, Hazzaa M

2017-06-19

Research in Saudi Arabia has revealed a shocking level of insufficiently physically active adults, particularly women. The risk of sedentary behavior will likely increase as the number of women with office-based jobs increases. The aim of this study is to determine the level of sedentary behavior, and its associated factors, among Saudi women working office-based jobs in the city of Riyadh. A cross-sectional study of 420 Saudi female employees at 8 office-based worksites were measured to determine body mass index and were given a self-administered survey to evaluate their level of physical activity and sedentary behavior. Median sitting time on work days was 690 min per day (interquartile range, IQR 541-870), with nearly half accumulated during work hours, and 575 min per day (IQR 360-780) on non-work days. Predictors of work day sitting time were level of education, number of children, and working in the private sector. Number of children, whether they were single, and whether they lived in a small home were found to predict non-work day sitting time. This study identifies Saudi women in office-based jobs as a high-risk group for sedentary behavior. There is a need to promote physical activity at worksites and reduce prolonged sitting.

[COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE MULTIMEDIA CANCER HEALTH RISKS CAUSED BY CONTAMINATION OF THE KRASNOIARSK KRAĬ REGIONS' ENVIRONMENT].

PubMed

Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Vorobieva, L M; Goriaev, D V; Tikhonova, I V; Kurkatov, S V

2015-01-01

Krasnoyarsk Krai is a region with developed mining and processing industries, notoriously known industries, as sources of carcinogenic emission. For 55 administrative units of the Krai 303 large enterprises' industrial emissions were preliminary prioritized and their location was designated. Only 52% out of the carcinogens emitted into the ambient air by industries were controlled, in other environments the figures ranged from 20% (soil, food) to 48% (drinking water), 10 carcinogens were not controlled in the environment at all. Based on the results of ranking carcinogenic emission and analysis of the carcinogens monitoring in the environment in 2007-2011 31 substances were selected. A comparative analysis of multiple environmental carcinogenic risks showed that 78% of the areas, based on the receipt ofcarcinogensfrom two media, and 80% ofthe areas taking into account the receipt ofcarcinogens from three media attributed to the alarming level of risk for population, that requires continuous monitoring and routine health interventions for its mitigation. The maximal multiple environmental risk values that took into account inputs from all sources were close to the upper boundary alarming level of risk, in Divnogorsk (7,80E-04), Norilsk (7,97 E-04), Krasnoyarsk (8,84E-04) and Achinsk (9,4 E-04). The greatest inputs to total individual cancer risk from polluted ambient air were made by benzene, chromium VI, formaldehyde and nickel, from drinking water--by arsenic, aldrin and heptachlor from soil--by arsenic and lead. The ambient air input into total multiple environmental carcinogenic risk ranged from 31.5 to 99.5%, drinking water input--from 0.5 to 68.5%, soil--up to 0.1%. Areas with maximum levels of total carcinogenic risk are characterized by the highest levels of average long-term indices of cancer development. The study discussed in this article has screening nature. Further in-depth researches for carcinogenic and toxic multimedia risks are required.

Ecological risk assessment based on IHA-RVA in the lower Xiaolangdi reservoir under changed hydrological situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Tao; Ma, Pan-pan; Kan, Yan-bin; Huang, Qiang

2017-12-01

Ecological risk assessment of river is an important content for protection and improvement of ecological environment. In this paper, taking Xiaolangdi reservoir for example, ecological risk assessments are studied based on the 1956-1997 and 2002-2008 dairy runoff data as the pre and post of construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir. Considering pre and post hydrological regime of construction of Xiaolangdi, ecological risk assessment index systems of downstream are established based on Index of Hydrologic Alteration-Range of Variability Approach method (IHA-RVA), which considering characters of flow, time, frequency, delay and change rate. Then ecological risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation assessment model downstream is established based on risk index and RVA method. The results show that after the construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir, ecological risk occurred in the downstream of Yellow River for changed hydrological indexes, such as monthly average flow, frequency and duration of extreme annual flow and so on, which probably destroy the whole ecosystems of the river. For example, ecological risk downstream of Xiaolangdi reservoir upgrade to level two in 2008. Research results make reference values and scientific basis both in ecological risk assessment and management of reservoir after construction.

Endogenous risk-taking and physical appearance of sex workers.

PubMed

Egger, Peter H; Lindenblatt, Andreas

2015-12-01

Previous research found that physical appearance affects the risk-taking of sex workers through offering unprotected services. This paper utilizes a large individual-level data set covering 16,583 pay-for-sex contracts in 2011 and 2012 by 2,517 female suppliers in Germany. Results based on instrumental variables suggest that the incentive for risk-taking is about twice as high than when assuming random assignment of risk-taking.

Design of Work Facilities for Reducing Musculoskeletal Disorders Risk in Paper Pallet Assembly Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mardi Safitri, Dian; Arfi Nabila, Zahra; Azmi, Nora

2018-03-01

Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSD) is one of the ergonomic risks due to manual activity, non-neutral posture and repetitive motion. The purpose of this study is to measure risk and implement ergonomic interventions to reduce the risk of MSD on the paper pallet assembly work station. Measurements to work posture are done by Ovako Working Posture Analysis (OWAS) methods and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) method, while the measurement of work repetitiveness was using Strain Index (SI) method. Assembly processes operators are identified has the highest risk level. OWAS score, Strain Index, and REBA values are 4, 20.25, and 11. Ergonomic improvements are needed to reduce that level of risk. Proposed improvements will be developed using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) method applied with Axiomatic House of Quality (AHOQ) and Morphological Chart. As the result, risk level based on OWAS score & REBA score turn out from 4 & 11 to be 1 & 2. Biomechanics analysis of the operator also shows the decreasing values for L4-L5 moment, compression, joint shear, and joint moment strength.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

Assessment of cow and farm level risk factors associated with Ureaplasma diversum in pasture-based dairy systems - A field study.

PubMed

Nascimento-Rocha, Josefa M; Oliveira, Benedito D DE; Arnhold, Emannuel; Pôrto, Regiani N G; Lima, Svetlana F; Gambarini, Maria Lucia

2017-01-01

Potential risk factors for Ureaplasma diversum in the vaginal mucus of 1,238 dairy cows were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, based on the cow level (i.e., granular vulvovaginitis [+GVV], yearly milk production [4500 kg or more], pregnancy, predominance of Bos taurus [+Bos Taurus], score of corporal condition [at least 2.5], concomitant positivity for Escherichia coli [+E.coli]), and farm level i.e., milking room hygiene (-Milking room), dunghill location, and replacement female). Ureaplasma diversum was present in 41.1% of the samples. Independent risk factors for U. diversum were +GVV (odds ratio [OR], 1.31); +Mycoplasma spp (OR, 5.67); yearly milk production (4500 kg or more) (OR, 1.99); +Bos taurus (OR, 1.68); +E. coli (OR, 4.96); -milking room (OR, 2.31); and replacement females (OR, 1.89). Ureaplasma diversum vaginal colonization was strongly associated with Mycoplasma spp., E. coli, and number of pregnant cows.

Analysis of tsunami disaster map by Geographic Information System (GIS): Aceh Singkil-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhan, A.; Akhyar, H.

2017-02-01

Tsunami risk map is used by stakeholder as a base to decide evacuation plan and evaluates from disaster. Aceh Singkil district of Aceh- Indonesia’s disaster maps have been developed and analyzed by using GIS tool. Overlay methods through algorithms are used to produce hazard map, vulnerability, capacity and finally created disaster risk map. Spatial maps are used topographic maps, administrative map, SRTM. The parameters are social, economic, physical environmental vulnerability, a level of exposed people, parameters of houses, public building, critical facilities, productive land, population density, sex ratio, poor ratio, disability ratio, age group ratio, the protected forest, natural forest, and mangrove forest. The results show high-risk tsunami disaster at nine villages; moderate levels are seventeen villages, and other villages are shown in the low level of tsunami risk disaster.

Hip fracture risk in relation to vitamin D supplementation and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention is widespread despite conflicting interpretation of relevant randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence. This study summarises quantitatively the current evidence from RCTs and observational studies regarding vitamin D, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and hip fracture risk. Methods We undertook separate meta-analyses of RCTs examining vitamin D supplementation and hip fracture, and observational studies of serum vitamin D status (25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) level), PTH and hip fracture. Results from RCTs were combined using the reported hazard ratios/relative risks (RR). Results from case-control studies were combined using the ratio of 25(OH)D and PTH measurements of hip fracture cases compared with controls. Original published studies of vitamin D, PTH and hip fracture were identified through PubMed and Web of Science databases, searches of reference lists and forward citations of key papers. Results The seven eligible RCTs identified showed no significant difference in hip fracture risk in those randomised to cholecalciferol or ergocalciferol supplementation versus placebo/control (RR = 1.13[95%CI 0.98-1.29]; 801 cases), with no significant difference between trials of <800 IU/day and ≥800 IU/day. The 17 identified case-control studies found 33% lower serum 25(OH)D levels in cases compared to controls, based on 1903 cases. This difference was significantly greater in studies with population-based compared to hospital-based controls (χ21 (heterogeneity) = 51.02, p < 0.001) and significant heterogeneity was present overall (χ216 (heterogeneity) = 137.9, p < 0.001). Serum PTH levels in hip fracture cases did not differ significantly from controls, based on ten case-control studies with 905 cases (χ29 (heterogeneity) = 149.68, p < 0.001). Conclusions Neither higher nor lower dose vitamin D supplementation prevented hip fracture. Randomised and observational data on vitamin D and hip fracture appear to differ. The reason for this is unclear; one possible explanation is uncontrolled confounding in observational studies. Post-fracture PTH levels are unrelated to hip fracture risk. PMID:20540727

Lower levels of serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol are associated with a worse Duke treadmill score in men but not in women.

PubMed

Erkan, A F; Ekici, B; Demir, G G; Töre, H F

2014-01-01

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels are inversely related to the atherosclerotic burden and are higher in women than in men. We aimed to investigate the sex-specific relationship between serum HDL-C levels and the Duke treadmill score (DTS) in this study. A total of 111 patients (59 men, 42 women) with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent exercise treadmill test (EST) were included. Fasting blood samples were obtained for the assessment of serum lipid levels. DTS was calculated for each patient based on EST findings including ST segment deviation and symptoms. Patients were categorized into a moderate to high risk group based on the DTS score (group-I: 38 patients) and a low risk group (group-II: 63 patients). There was a significant positive correlation between serum HDL-C levels and DTS (r = 0.230; P=0.021). The mean HDL-C level was significantly higher in group-II relative to group-I (49.25 ±11.21 vs. 44.43 ± 11.18, respectively, P = 0.04). An HDL-C level less than the cut-off value of 41.39 mg/dL predicted a moderate to severe risk DTS with 65% sensitivity and 69% specificity in men (area under curve = 0.732, P = 0.004), but not in women (area under curve = 0.505, P = 0.958). After adjustment for traditional CAD risk factors (age, sex, and smoking status), the relationship of DTS to HDL-C remained significant. (P = 0.030; adjusted OR = 0.948 [95% CI, 0.904-0.995]). Low HDL-C levels may be associated with a moderate to high risk Duke treadmill score in men, but not in women. Further research is required to clarify the sex-specific relationship between HDL-C and DTS.

Risk Factors of HIV and Other Sexually Transmitted Infections in China: A Systematic Review of Reviews

PubMed Central

Wong, William Chi Wai

2015-01-01

Background Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) are a global challenge. China, once said to have eradicated STIs, is now facing a rapid rise in the prevalence of HIV/STIs. This review of reviews aims to map HIV/STI risk factors among the Chinese population, with the objective of identifying risk factors to inform the formulation of effective prevention strategies. Methods A systematic search using key terms related to HIV/STIs, risk factors and the Chinese population in both English and Chinese databases (PubMed, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library; Wanfang data, CNKI, VIP and SINOMED) was conducted, and peer-reviewed systematic reviews on the topic from 1991 to 2014 were selected. Identified risk factors were grouped into different level determinants based on the HIV Social Epidemiology Model, and then evaluated and reported based on the PRISMA checklist. Findings Of the twenty-eight reviews included, the majority were focused on well-established, individual level risk factors within key populations, with some highlighting the complexity of interacting factors (e.g., alcohol use and higher income in male migrants). While twenty-two reviews covered individual factors, only ten mentioned social factors and five had contents on structural factors. There are gaps in the evidence on social and structural level impacts of HIV/STIs, such as on stigma, discrimination, health policy, access to care, and illicit drug control policies. Migration and social expectation appear to pose a significant threat in aggravating the HIV/STI situation in China; for example, incarceration patterns indicated a significant risk of HIV/STIs for female sex workers. Conclusions Since international guidelines recommend an integrated and multi-level approach to HIV/STI prevention, a comprehensive approach targeting interventions at all levels along the continuum of care is needed to effectively curtail HIV/STI transmission in China. More research is needed to better understand the impact of socio-political interventions within a Chinese context. PMID:26468650

Education and the risk for Alzheimer's disease: sex makes a difference. EURODEM pooled analyses. EURODEM Incidence Research Group.

PubMed

Letenneur, L; Launer, L J; Andersen, K; Dewey, M E; Ott, A; Copeland, J R; Dartigues, J F; Kragh-Sorensen, P; Baldereschi, M; Brayne, C; Lobo, A; Martinez-Lage, J M; Stijnen, T; Hofman, A

2000-06-01

The hypothesis that a low educational level increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease remains controversial. The authors studied the association of years of schooling with the risk for incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease by using pooled data from four European population-based follow-up studies. Dementia cases were identified in a two-stage procedure that included a detailed diagnostic assessment of screen-positive subjects. Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were diagnosed by using international research criteria. Educational level was categorized by years of schooling as low (< or =7), middle (8-11), or high (> or =12). Relative risks (95% confidence intervals) were estimated by using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, study center, smoking status, and self-reported myocardial infarction and stroke. There were 493 (328) incident cases of dementia (Alzheimer's disease) and 28,061 (27,839) person-years of follow-up. Compared with women with a high level of education, those with low and middle levels of education had 4.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.5, 11.9) and 2.6 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 7.1) times increased risks, respectively, for Alzheimer's disease. The risk estimates for men were close to 1.0. Finding an association of education with Alzheimer's disease for women only raises the possibility that unmeasured confounding explains the previously reported increased risk for Alzheimer's disease for persons with low levels of education.

Potentially traumatic events have negative and positive effects on loneliness, depending on PTSD-symptom levels: evidence from a population-based prospective comparative study.

PubMed

van der Velden, Peter G; Pijnappel, Bas; van der Meulen, Erik

2018-02-01

Examine to what extent adults affected by recent potentially traumatic events (PTE) with different PTSD-symptom levels are more at risk for post-event loneliness than non-affected adults are in the same study period. We extracted data from the Dutch longitudinal LISS panel to measure pre-event loneliness (2011) and post-event loneliness (2013 and 2014), pre-event mental health problems (2011), PTE and PTSD symptoms (2012). This panel is based on a traditional random sample drawn from the population register by Statistics Netherlands. Results of the multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that affected adults with high levels of PTSD symptoms were more at risk for high levels of post-event loneliness than affected adults with very low PTSD-symptom levels and non-affected adults, while controlling for pre-event loneliness, pre-event mental health problems and demographics. However, affected adults with very low levels of PTSD symptoms compared to non-affected adults were less at risk for medium and high levels of post-event loneliness while controlling for the same variables. Yet, pre-event loneliness appeared to be the strongest independent predictor of loneliness at later stages: more than 80% with high pre-event levels had high post-event levels at both follow-ups. Remarkably, potentially traumatic events have depending on PTSD-symptom levels both negative and positive effects on post-event loneliness in favor of affected adults with very low PTSD symptoms levels. However, post-event levels at later stages are predominantly determined by pre-event loneliness levels.

Radiofrequency radiation from nearby base stations gives high levels in an apartment in Stockholm, Sweden: A case report.

PubMed

Hardell, Lennart; Carlberg, Michael; Hedendahl, Lena K

2018-05-01

Exposure to radiofrequency (RF) radiation was classified in 2011 as a possible human carcinogen, Group 2B, by the International Agency for Research on Cancer of the World Health Organisation. Evidence of the risk of cancer risk has since strengthened. Exposure is changing due to the rapid development of technology resulting in increased ambient radiation. RF radiation of sufficient intensity heats tissues, but the energy is insufficient to cause ionization, hence it is called non-ionizing radiation. These non-thermal exposure levels have resulted in biological effects in humans, animals and cells, including an increased cancer risk. In the present study, the levels of RF radiation were measured in an apartment close to two groups of mobile phone base stations on the roof. A total of 74,531 measurements were made corresponding to ~83 h of recording. The total mean RF radiation level was 3,811 µW/m 2 (range 15.2-112,318 µW/m 2 ) for the measurement of the whole apartment, including balconies. Particularly high levels were measured on three balconies and 3 of 4 bedrooms. The total mean RF radiation level decreased by 98% when the measured down-links from the base stations for 2, 3 and 4 G were disregarded. The results are discussed in relation to the detrimental health effects of non-thermal RF radiation. Due to the current high RF radiation, the apartment is not suitable for long-term living, particularly for children who may be more sensitive than adults. For a definitive conclusion regarding the effect of RF radiation from nearby base stations, one option would be to turn them off and repeat the measurements. However, the simplest and safest solution would be to turn them off and dismantle them.

Radiofrequency radiation from nearby base stations gives high levels in an apartment in Stockholm, Sweden: A case report

PubMed Central

Hardell, Lennart; Carlberg, Michael; Hedendahl, Lena K.

2018-01-01

Exposure to radiofrequency (RF) radiation was classified in 2011 as a possible human carcinogen, Group 2B, by the International Agency for Research on Cancer of the World Health Organisation. Evidence of the risk of cancer risk has since strengthened. Exposure is changing due to the rapid development of technology resulting in increased ambient radiation. RF radiation of sufficient intensity heats tissues, but the energy is insufficient to cause ionization, hence it is called non-ionizing radiation. These non-thermal exposure levels have resulted in biological effects in humans, animals and cells, including an increased cancer risk. In the present study, the levels of RF radiation were measured in an apartment close to two groups of mobile phone base stations on the roof. A total of 74,531 measurements were made corresponding to ~83 h of recording. The total mean RF radiation level was 3,811 µW/m2 (range 15.2–112,318 µW/m2) for the measurement of the whole apartment, including balconies. Particularly high levels were measured on three balconies and 3 of 4 bedrooms. The total mean RF radiation level decreased by 98% when the measured down-links from the base stations for 2, 3 and 4 G were disregarded. The results are discussed in relation to the detrimental health effects of non-thermal RF radiation. Due to the current high RF radiation, the apartment is not suitable for long-term living, particularly for children who may be more sensitive than adults. For a definitive conclusion regarding the effect of RF radiation from nearby base stations, one option would be to turn them off and repeat the measurements. However, the simplest and safest solution would be to turn them off and dismantle them. PMID:29725476

HPV16 seropositivity and subsequent HPV16 infection risk in a naturally infected population: comparison of serological assays.

PubMed

Lin, Shih-Wen; Ghosh, Arpita; Porras, Carolina; Markt, Sarah C; Rodriguez, Ana Cecilia; Schiffman, Mark; Wacholder, Sholom; Kemp, Troy J; Pinto, Ligia A; Gonzalez, Paula; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Esser, Mark T; Matys, Katie; Meuree, Ariane; Quint, Wim; van Doorn, Leen-Jan; Herrero, Rolando; Hildesheim, Allan; Safaeian, Mahboobeh

2013-01-01

Several serological assays have been developed to detect antibodies elicited against infections with oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16. The association between antibody levels measured by various assays and subsequent HPV infection risk may differ. We compared HPV16-specific antibody levels previously measured by a virus-like particle (VLP)-based direct enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) with levels measured by additional assays and evaluated the protection against HPV16 infection conferred at different levels of the assays. Replicate enrollment serum aliquots from 388 unvaccinated women in the control arm of the Costa Rica HPV vaccine trial were measured for HPV16 seropositivity using three serological assays: a VLP-based direct ELISA; a VLP-based competitive Luminex immunoassay (cLIA); and a secreted alkaline phosphatase protein neutralization assay (SEAP-NA). We assessed the association of assay seropositivity and risk of subsequent HPV16 infection over four years of follow-up by calculating sampling-adjusted odds ratios (OR) and HPV16 seropositivity based on standard cutoff from the cLIA was significantly associated with protection from subsequent HPV16 infection (OR = 0.48, CI = 0.27-0.86, compared with seronegatives). Compared with seronegatives, the highest seropositive tertile antibody levels from the direct ELISA (OR = 0.53, CI = 0.28-0.90) as well as the SEAP-NA (OR = 0.20, CI = 0.06, 0.64) were also significantly associated with protection from HPV16 infection. Enrollment HPV16 seropositivity by any of the three serological assays evaluated was associated with protection from subsequent infection, although cutoffs for immune protection were different. We defined the assays and seropositivity levels after natural infection that better measure and translate to protective immunity.

[Health Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Quality in Tianjin Based on GIS].

PubMed

Fu, Gang; Zeng, Qiang; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Yue; Feng, Bao-jia; Wang, Rui; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Yang; Hou, Chang-chun

2015-12-01

This study intends to assess the potential health hazards of drinking water quality and explore the application of geographic information system( GIS) in drinking water safety in Tianjin. Eight hundred and fifty water samples from 401 sampling points in Tianjin were measured according to the national drinking water standards. The risk assessment was conducted using the environmental health risk assessment model recommended by US EAP, and GIS was combined to explore the information visualization and risk factors simultaneously. The results showed that the health risks of carcinogens, non-carcinogens were 3.83 x 10⁻⁵, 5.62 x 10⁻⁹ and 3.83 x 10⁻⁵ for total health risk respectively. The rank of health risk was carcinogen > non-carcinogen. The rank of carcinogens health risk was urban > new area > rural area, chromium (VI) > cadmium > arsenic > trichlormethane > carbon tetrachloride. The rank of non-carcinogens health risk was rural area > new area > urban, fluoride > cyanide > lead > nitrate. The total health risk level of drinking water in Tianjin was lower than that of ICRP recommended level (5.0 x 10⁻⁵), while was between US EPA recommended level (1.0 x 10⁻⁴-1.0 x 10⁻⁶). It was at an acceptable level and would not cause obvious health hazards. The main health risks of drinking water came from carcinogens. More attentions should be paid to chromium (VI) for carcinogens and fluoride for non-carcinogens. GIS can accomplish information visualization of drinking water risk assessment and further explore of risk factors.

U.S. Army Base Closure Program, Final Decision Document, Cameron Station, Alexandria, Virginia

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-11-01

POTENTIAL CONCERN AT THE CAMERON STATION SITE TABLE 2-7 CHEMICALS CONTRIBUTING TO EXCESS CANCER RISK AT A PATHWAY LEVEL OF 1E-6 OR GREATER TABLE 2-8...CANCER RISK AT A PATHWAY LEVEL OF 1E-6 OR GREATER TABLE 2-8 SUMMARY OF DETAILED ANALYSIS OU-1 PCB TRANSFORMER SERVICE, STORAGE AND SPILL AREAS TABLE 2-9...Restrictions MCL Maximum Contaminant Level mg milligram 3001riOOh:bfsrod~acronyms.Ri November 18, 1993 v LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS, CONTINUED O&M

Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

PubMed

Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

2018-02-17

Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

Determination of reference values for elevated fasting and random insulin levels and their associations with metabolic risk factors among rural Pakistanis from Sindh Province.

PubMed

Ahmadani, Muhammad Yakoob; Hakeem, Rubina; Fawwad, Asher; Basit, Abdul; Shera, A Samad

2008-06-01

To assess insulin levels and their association with metabolic risk factors (family history of diabetes, abnormal glucose tolerance, hypertension, overweight and android obesity) among a representative group of Pakistan. The study data was taken from the database of a population-based survey conducted in Sindh Province, Pakistan, in 1994 to assess the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Through stratified random sampling; oral glucose tolerance tests were performed in 967 adults; every fifth sample was estimated for fasting and random (2-hour post-75 gm glucose load) insulin levels. The total number of metabolic risk factors was counted for each subject, and their association with insulin levels studied. Of the 130 subjects, 56.1% were females and 95.4% were Sindhi. The mean age of males and females was 43.84 and 40.61 years, respectively. Family history for diabetes and frequency of overweight had significant positive associations with both fasting and random insulin levels (P < 0.05). Association between hypertension and insulin levels was significant only for random insulin levels, and between android obesity, abnormal glucose tolerance, or male gender and insulin levels only for fasting insulin levels (P < 0.05). Metabolic risk factors had significant positive associations with both fasting (r = 0.351 P = 0.000) as well as random insulin levels (r = 0.364 P = 0.000). This paper provides baseline pioneering information applicable to the Pakistani population. Furthermore, the observations made in this study about differences in association of fasting or random insulin levels with various metabolic risk factors highlight the possibility of using either of them for risk assessment. This finding needs to be assessed in a larger and nationally representative sample.

Knowledge and Perceptions of Influenza Vaccinations Among College Students in Vietnam and the United States.

PubMed

Kamimura, Akiko; Trinh, Ha N; Weaver, Shannon; Chernenko, Alla; Nourian, Maziar M; Assasnik, Nushean; Nguyen, Hanh

2017-07-01

Influenza is a significant worldwide public health issue. Knowledge and perceptions regarding the flu vaccination are associated with whether individuals obtain the vaccination. The purpose of this study was to examine how such perceptions were related to knowledge and self-efficacy regarding influenza and the flu vaccination in Vietnam and the US. College students (n=932) in Vietnam (n=495) and the US (n=437) completed a self-administered survey regarding knowledge and perceptions of influenza vaccinations in September and October 2016. Vietnamese participants reported significantly lower levels of awareness about flu risk, higher levels of negative attitudes toward flu vaccination, lower levels of knowledge about the flu and vaccination, and lower levels of self-efficacy than US participants. Higher levels of flu and flu vaccination knowledge and self-efficacy regarding general responsible health practices were associated with lower levels of negative perceptions of flu risk and attitudes toward vaccination. At the same time, self-efficacy regarding responsible health practices was associated with higher levels of awareness of flu risk and lower levels of negative attitudes toward vaccination. Self-efficacy regarding exercise was associated with lower levels of perceptions of flu risk and higher levels of negative attitudes toward vaccination. Vietnam could benefit from influenza education based on this comparison with the US. In both countries, knowledge and self-efficacy were found to be important factors influencing perceptions of influenza risk and vaccination.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water.

PubMed

Lamm, Steven H; Ferdosi, Hamid; Dissen, Elisabeth K; Li, Ji; Ahn, Jaeil

2015-12-07

High levels (> 200 µg/L) of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are known to be a cause of human lung cancer, but the evidence at lower levels is uncertain. We have sought the epidemiological studies that have examined the dose-response relationship between arsenic levels in drinking water and the risk of lung cancer over a range that includes both high and low levels of arsenic. Regression analysis, based on six studies identified from an electronic search, examined the relationship between the log of the relative risk and the log of the arsenic exposure over a range of 1-1000 µg/L. The best-fitting continuous meta-regression model was sought and found to be a no-constant linear-quadratic analysis where both the risk and the exposure had been logarithmically transformed. This yielded both a statistically significant positive coefficient for the quadratic term and a statistically significant negative coefficient for the linear term. Sub-analyses by study design yielded results that were similar for both ecological studies and non-ecological studies. Statistically significant X-intercepts consistently found no increased level of risk at approximately 100-150 µg/L arsenic.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water

PubMed Central

Lamm, Steven H.; Ferdosi, Hamid; Dissen, Elisabeth K.; Li, Ji; Ahn, Jaeil

2015-01-01

High levels (> 200 µg/L) of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are known to be a cause of human lung cancer, but the evidence at lower levels is uncertain. We have sought the epidemiological studies that have examined the dose-response relationship between arsenic levels in drinking water and the risk of lung cancer over a range that includes both high and low levels of arsenic. Regression analysis, based on six studies identified from an electronic search, examined the relationship between the log of the relative risk and the log of the arsenic exposure over a range of 1–1000 µg/L. The best-fitting continuous meta-regression model was sought and found to be a no-constant linear-quadratic analysis where both the risk and the exposure had been logarithmically transformed. This yielded both a statistically significant positive coefficient for the quadratic term and a statistically significant negative coefficient for the linear term. Sub-analyses by study design yielded results that were similar for both ecological studies and non-ecological studies. Statistically significant X-intercepts consistently found no increased level of risk at approximately 100–150 µg/L arsenic. PMID:26690190

A population-based case-control study of drinking-water nitrate and congenital anomalies using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop individual-level exposure estimates.

PubMed

Holtby, Caitlin E; Guernsey, Judith R; Allen, Alexander C; Vanleeuwen, John A; Allen, Victoria M; Gordon, Robert J

2014-02-05

Animal studies and epidemiological evidence suggest an association between prenatal exposure to drinking water with elevated nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations and incidence of congenital anomalies. This study used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to derive individual-level prenatal drinking-water nitrate exposure estimates from measured nitrate concentrations from 140 temporally monitored private wells and 6 municipal water supplies. Cases of major congenital anomalies in Kings County, Nova Scotia, Canada, between 1988 and 2006 were selected from province-wide population-based perinatal surveillance databases and matched to controls from the same databases. Unconditional multivariable logistic regression was performed to test for an association between drinking-water nitrate exposure and congenital anomalies after adjusting for clinically relevant risk factors. Employing all nitrate data there was a trend toward increased risk of congenital anomalies for increased nitrate exposure levels though this was not statistically significant. After stratification of the data by conception before or after folic acid supplementation, an increased risk of congenital anomalies for nitrate exposure of 1.5-5.56 mg/L (2.44; 1.05-5.66) and a trend toward increased risk for >5.56 mg/L (2.25; 0.92-5.52) was found. Though the study is likely underpowered, these results suggest that drinking-water nitrate exposure may contribute to increased risk of congenital anomalies at levels below the current Canadian maximum allowable concentration.

A Population-Based Case-Control Study of Drinking-Water Nitrate and Congenital Anomalies Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to Develop Individual-Level Exposure Estimates

PubMed Central

Holtby, Caitlin E.; Guernsey, Judith R.; Allen, Alexander C.; VanLeeuwen, John A.; Allen, Victoria M.; Gordon, Robert J.

2014-01-01

Animal studies and epidemiological evidence suggest an association between prenatal exposure to drinking water with elevated nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations and incidence of congenital anomalies. This study used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to derive individual-level prenatal drinking-water nitrate exposure estimates from measured nitrate concentrations from 140 temporally monitored private wells and 6 municipal water supplies. Cases of major congenital anomalies in Kings County, Nova Scotia, Canada, between 1988 and 2006 were selected from province-wide population-based perinatal surveillance databases and matched to controls from the same databases. Unconditional multivariable logistic regression was performed to test for an association between drinking-water nitrate exposure and congenital anomalies after adjusting for clinically relevant risk factors. Employing all nitrate data there was a trend toward increased risk of congenital anomalies for increased nitrate exposure levels though this was not statistically significant. After stratification of the data by conception before or after folic acid supplementation, an increased risk of congenital anomalies for nitrate exposure of 1.5–5.56 mg/L (2.44; 1.05–5.66) and a trend toward increased risk for >5.56 mg/L (2.25; 0.92–5.52) was found. Though the study is likely underpowered, these results suggest that drinking-water nitrate exposure may contribute to increased risk of congenital anomalies at levels below the current Canadian maximum allowable concentration. PMID:24503976

Individuals versus organisms versus populations in the definition of ecological assessment endpoints.

PubMed

Suter, Glenn W; Norton, Susan B; Fairbrother, Anne

2005-11-01

Discussions and applications of the policies and practices of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in ecological risk assessment will benefit from continued clarification of the concepts of assessment endpoints and of levels of biological organization. First, assessment endpoint entities and attributes can be defined at different levels of organization. Hence, an organism-level attribute, such as growth or survival, can be applied collectively to a population-level entity such as the brook trout in a stream. Second, assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment are often mistakenly described as "individual level," which leads to the idea that such assessments are intended to protect individuals. Finally, populations play a more important role in risk assessments than is generally recognized. Organism-level attributes are used primarily for population-level assessments. In addition, the USEPA and other agencies already are basing management decisions on population or community entities and attributes such as production of fisheries, abundance of migratory bird populations, and aquatic community composition.

A School-Level Proxy Measure for Individual-level Poverty Using School-Level Eligibility for Free and Reduced-Price Meals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Sophia E.; Hinterland, Kinjia; Myers, Christa; Gupta, Leena; Harris, Tiffany G.; Konty, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

Background: Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts health outcomes. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), like many school-based data sources, lacks individual-level poverty information. We propose using school-level percentages of student eligibility for free/reduced-price meals (%FRPM) as a proxy for individual-level poverty. Methods: Using the New…

Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios

PubMed Central

Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

2015-01-01

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios. PMID:26086529

Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

PubMed

Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

2015-01-01

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

A Pilot Study Examining Depressive Symptoms, Internet Use, and Sexual Risk Behavior among Asian Men Who Have Sex With Men

PubMed Central

Lemieux, AF; Nehl, EJ; Lin, L; Tran, A; Yu, F; Wong, FY

2013-01-01

In the present paper, we present a preliminary examination of the association of depression level, internet use, meeting sexual partners online, and unprotected sexual activity among Asian men who have sex with men (MSM). Because depression level has been previously linked to increased levels of sexual risk behavior, and heightened levels of Internet use has been linked to greater depressive symptoms, the present pilot research jointly examines these factors. We found that those with higher levels of depression, measured using the CES-D, spent more time online, met significantly more sexual partners online, and reported a significantly higher number of unprotected sexual acts. Based on this initial evidence, we conclude that incorporating CES-D to screen for depression can serve as an important tool for addressing underlying dynamics of sexual risk behaviors. PMID:24074630

Predicting HIV/STD risk level and substance use disorders among incarcerated adolescents.

PubMed

Rowe, Cynthia L; Wang, Wei; Greenbaum, Paul; Liddle, Howard A

2008-12-01

Incarcerated adolescents are among the most vulnerable groups for STD infection, and substance abuse is prevalent in over half of this population. Substance abuse and HIV/STD-associated risk behaviors are closely linked among juvenile justice-involved youth, but it is unclear whether common antecedents explain these different problems. The current study examined predictors of HIV/STD risk level and substance use disorders, and investigated whether family variables added unique predictive variance for these problems among incarcerated youth. The sample included 154 substance-involved youth ages 13 to 17 recruited in detention facilities in Miami and Tampa, FL and was primarily male (82%) and African-American (58%). Using a comprehensive assessment strategy with data obtained from youth report, parent report, and laboratory confirmed STD testing, the results show that delinquency is a consistent predictor of both HIV/STD risk level and substance use disorders, and also that substance use directly predicts HIV/STD risk level among incarcerated adolescents. Consistent with previous research, family conflict is an important predictor of substance use disorders even after controlling for other factors. The results suggest the need for integrated family-based interventions addressing delinquency, substance abuse, and HIV/STD-associated risk factors with juvenile justice-involved adolescents.

Trends in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of cardiovascular risk factors across educational level in the 1995-2005 period.

PubMed

Redondo, Ana; Benach, Joan; Subirana, Isaac; Martinez, José Miguel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Masiá, Rafel; Ramos, Rafael; Sala, Joan; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto

2011-08-01

To determine the differences and trends in the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle variables across educational level in the 1995-2005 period in a country with a universal free health care system. Data from three consecutive independent population-based surveys were used. Cardiovascular risk factors, lifestyle variables, and self-reported educational level were collected in 9646 individuals ages 35-74 years throughout the decade. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes was inversely associated with education. An increase in the proportion of hypertension and dyslipidemia awareness, treatment, and control in all educational level groups was observed. This increase was greater among the lowest education group, reducing the disparities between groups. The prevalence of lifestyle-related risk factors decreased in the greatest but increased in the lowest education group, widening the disparities between groups. A universal free health care system is effective in avoiding inequalities in the diagnosis, treatment, and control of cardiovascular risk factors. However, other social determinants seem to explain the social inequalities in the prevalence of these risk factors and in the adoption of healthy lifestyles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A proposed framework for consistent regulation of public exposures to radionuclides and other carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kocher, D.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

1991-12-31

This paper discusses a proposed framework for consistent regulation of carcinogenic risks to the public based on establishing de manifestis (i.e., unacceptable) and de minimis (i.e., trivial) lifetime risks from exposure to any carcinogens at levels of about 10{sup {minus}1}--10{sup {minus}3} and 10{sup {minus}4}--10{sup {minus}6}, respectively, and reduction of risks above de minimis levels as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA). We then discuss certain differences in the way risks from exposure to radionuclides and other carcinogens currently are regulated or assessed which would need to be considered in implementing the proposed regulatory framework for all carcinogens.

A proposed framework for consistent regulation of public exposures to radionuclides and other carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kocher, D.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

1991-01-01

This paper discusses a proposed framework for consistent regulation of carcinogenic risks to the public based on establishing de manifestis (i.e., unacceptable) and de minimis (i.e., trivial) lifetime risks from exposure to any carcinogens at levels of about 10{sup {minus}1}--10{sup {minus}3} and 10{sup {minus}4}--10{sup {minus}6}, respectively, and reduction of risks above de minimis levels as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA). We then discuss certain differences in the way risks from exposure to radionuclides and other carcinogens currently are regulated or assessed which would need to be considered in implementing the proposed regulatory framework for all carcinogens.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

The importance of proximal fusion level selection for outcomes of multi-level lumbar posterolateral fusion.

PubMed

Nam, Woo Dong; Cho, Jae Hwan

2015-03-01

There are few studies about risk factors for poor outcomes from multi-level lumbar posterolateral fusion limited to three or four level lumbar posterolateral fusions. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcomes of multi-level lumbar posterolateral fusion and to search for possible risk factors for poor surgical outcomes. We retrospectively analyzed 37 consecutive patients who underwent multi-level lumbar or lumbosacral posterolateral fusion with posterior instrumentation. The outcomes were deemed either 'good' or 'bad' based on clinical and radiological results. Many demographic and radiological factors were analyzed to examine potential risk factors for poor outcomes. Student t-test, Fisher exact test, and the chi-square test were used based on the nature of the variables. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to exclude confounding factors. Twenty cases showed a good outcome (group A, 54.1%) and 17 cases showed a bad outcome (group B, 45.9%). The overall fusion rate was 70.3%. The revision procedures (group A: 1/20, 5.0%; group B: 4/17, 23.5%), proximal fusion to L2 (group A: 5/20, 25.0%; group B: 10/17, 58.8%), and severity of stenosis (group A: 12/19, 63.3%; group B: 3/11, 27.3%) were adopted as possible related factors to the outcome in univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that only the proximal fusion level (superior instrumented vertebra, SIV) was a significant risk factor. The cases in which SIV was L2 showed inferior outcomes than those in which SIV was L3. The odds ratio was 6.562 (95% confidence interval, 1.259 to 34.203). The overall outcome of multi-level lumbar or lumbosacral posterolateral fusion was not as high as we had hoped it would be. Whether the SIV was L2 or L3 was the only significant risk factor identified for poor outcomes in multi-level lumbar or lumbosacral posterolateral fusion in the current study. Thus, the authors recommend that proximal fusion levels be carefully determined when multi-level lumbar fusions are considered.

The Importance of Proximal Fusion Level Selection for Outcomes of Multi-Level Lumbar Posterolateral Fusion

PubMed Central

Nam, Woo Dong

2015-01-01

Background There are few studies about risk factors for poor outcomes from multi-level lumbar posterolateral fusion limited to three or four level lumbar posterolateral fusions. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcomes of multi-level lumbar posterolateral fusion and to search for possible risk factors for poor surgical outcomes. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 37 consecutive patients who underwent multi-level lumbar or lumbosacral posterolateral fusion with posterior instrumentation. The outcomes were deemed either 'good' or 'bad' based on clinical and radiological results. Many demographic and radiological factors were analyzed to examine potential risk factors for poor outcomes. Student t-test, Fisher exact test, and the chi-square test were used based on the nature of the variables. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to exclude confounding factors. Results Twenty cases showed a good outcome (group A, 54.1%) and 17 cases showed a bad outcome (group B, 45.9%). The overall fusion rate was 70.3%. The revision procedures (group A: 1/20, 5.0%; group B: 4/17, 23.5%), proximal fusion to L2 (group A: 5/20, 25.0%; group B: 10/17, 58.8%), and severity of stenosis (group A: 12/19, 63.3%; group B: 3/11, 27.3%) were adopted as possible related factors to the outcome in univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that only the proximal fusion level (superior instrumented vertebra, SIV) was a significant risk factor. The cases in which SIV was L2 showed inferior outcomes than those in which SIV was L3. The odds ratio was 6.562 (95% confidence interval, 1.259 to 34.203). Conclusions The overall outcome of multi-level lumbar or lumbosacral posterolateral fusion was not as high as we had hoped it would be. Whether the SIV was L2 or L3 was the only significant risk factor identified for poor outcomes in multi-level lumbar or lumbosacral posterolateral fusion in the current study. Thus, the authors recommend that proximal fusion levels be carefully determined when multi-level lumbar fusions are considered. PMID:25729522

Hedging the financial risk from water scarcity for Great Lakes shipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Eliot S.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Brown, Casey; Moody, Paul

2016-01-01

Low water levels in the Great Lakes have recently had significant financial impacts on the region's commercial shipping, which transports hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of bulk goods each year. Cargo capacity is a function of a ship's draft, the distance between water level and the ship's bottom, and lower water levels force ships to reduce cargo loads to prevent running aground in shallow harbors and locks. Financial risk transfer instruments, such as index-based insurance contracts, may provide an adaptable method for managing these financial risks. In this work, a relationship between water levels and shipping revenues is developed and used in an actuarial analysis of the frequency and magnitude of revenue losses. This analysis is used to develop a standardized suite of binary financial contracts, which are indexed to water levels and priced according to predefined thresholds. These contracts are then combined to form hedging portfolios with different objectives for the shippers. Results suggest that binary contracts could substantially reduce the risk of financial losses during low lake level periods and at a relatively low cost of only one to three percent of total revenues, depending on coverage level.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in relation to smoking behaviour and history: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Keto, Jaana; Ventola, Hanna; Jokelainen, Jari; Linden, Kari; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Timonen, Markku; Ylisaukko-oja, Tero; Auvinen, Juha

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate how individual risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) (blood pressure, lipid levels, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, use of antihypertensive or hypolipidemic medication, and diagnosed diabetes) differ in people aged 46 years with different smoking behaviour and history. Methods This population-based cohort study is based on longitudinal data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 project. Data were collected at the 31-year and 46-year follow-ups, when a total of 5038 and 5974 individuals participated in clinical examinations and questionnaires. Data from both follow-ups were available for 3548 participants. In addition to individual CVD risk factors, Framingham and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms were used to assess the absolute risk of a CVD event within the next decade. Results The differences in individual risk factors for CVD reached statistical significance for some groups, but the differences were not consistent or clinically significant. There were no clinically significant differences in CVD risk as measured by Framingham or SCORE algorithms between never smokers, recent quitters and former smokers (7.5%, 7.4%, 8.1% for men; 3.3%, 3.0%, 3.2% for women; p<0.001). Conclusions The effect of past or present smoking on individual CVD risk parameters such as blood pressure and cholesterol seems to be of clinically minor significance in people aged 46 years. In other words, smoking seems to be above all an independent risk factor for CVD in the working-age population. Quitting smoking in working age may thus reduce calculated CVD risk nearly to the same level with people who have never smoked. PMID:27493759

24 CFR 35.1225 - Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... intervention blood lead level. 35.1225 Section 35.1225 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary... STRUCTURES Tenant-Based Rental Assistance § 35.1225 Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level... as having an environmental intervention blood lead level, the designated party shall complete a risk...

24 CFR 35.1225 - Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... intervention blood lead level. 35.1225 Section 35.1225 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary... STRUCTURES Tenant-Based Rental Assistance § 35.1225 Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level... as having an environmental intervention blood lead level, the designated party shall complete a risk...

24 CFR 35.1225 - Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... intervention blood lead level. 35.1225 Section 35.1225 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary... STRUCTURES Tenant-Based Rental Assistance § 35.1225 Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level... as having an environmental intervention blood lead level, the designated party shall complete a risk...

24 CFR 35.1225 - Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... intervention blood lead level. 35.1225 Section 35.1225 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary... STRUCTURES Tenant-Based Rental Assistance § 35.1225 Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level... as having an environmental intervention blood lead level, the designated party shall complete a risk...

24 CFR 35.1225 - Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... intervention blood lead level. 35.1225 Section 35.1225 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary... STRUCTURES Tenant-Based Rental Assistance § 35.1225 Child with an environmental intervention blood lead level... as having an environmental intervention blood lead level, the designated party shall complete a risk...

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

PubMed

Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

2013-06-01

Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose from 59% to 72% (P = 0.158). In Thika Level 5 Hospital, audit and feedback has a poor impact on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage but positive impact on blood pressure control and prescription practices. Time and sample size may have affected observed results. Additional audits and alternative QI strategies are warranted. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Evidence-Based Healthcare © 2013 The Joanna Briggs Institute.

Risk of suicidal ideation in diabetes varies by diabetes regimen, diabetes duration, and HbA1c level.

PubMed

Lee, Hoo-Yeon; Hahm, Myung-Il; Lee, Sang Gyu

2014-04-01

To investigate patient subgroups based on the clinical characteristics of diabetes to evaluate risk factors for suicidal ideation using a large population-based sample in South Korea. Data from the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey, were analyzed. The participants were 9159 subjects aged ≥40years. We defined patients with diabetes based on self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes. We evaluated clinical risk factors for suicidal ideation according to diabetes regimen, diabetes duration, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level compared with no diabetes. Given the complex sample design and unequal weights, we analyzed weighted percentages and used survey logistic regression. Diabetes per se was not associated with suicidal ideation. However, suicidal ideation was significantly more prevalent among patients who had injected insulin, had a duration of diabetes ≥5years and had HbA1c levels ≥6.5 compared with those without diabetes. Depressive symptoms were the most prominent predictor of suicidal ideation. Insulin therapy, diabetes of long duration, and unsatisfactory glycemic control were identified as risk factors for suicidal ideation; thus, patients with these characteristics warrant special attention. Our findings suggest the need to integrate efforts to manage emotional distress into diabetes care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low-serum GTA-446 anti-inflammatory fatty acid levels as a new risk factor for colon cancer

PubMed Central

Ritchie, Shawn A; Tonita, Jon; Alvi, Riaz; Lehotay, Denis; Elshoni, Hoda; Myat, Su-; McHattie, James; Goodenowe, Dayan B

2013-01-01

Gastrointestinal tract acid-446 (GTA-446) is a long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid present in the serum. A reduction of GTA-446 levels in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients has been reported previously. Our study compared GTA-446 levels in subjects diagnosed with CRC at the time of colonoscopy to the general population. Serum samples and pathology data were collected from 4,923 representative subjects undergoing colonoscopy and from 964 subjects from the general population. Serum GTA-446 levels were determined using a triple-quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry method. A low-serum GTA-446 level was based on the bottom tenth percentile of subjects with low risk based on age (40–49 years old) in the general population. Eighty-six percent of newly diagnosed CRC subjects (87% for stages 0–II and 85% for stages III–IV) showed low-serum GTA-446 levels. A significant increase in the CRC incidence rate with age was observed in subjects with low GTA-446 levels (p = 0.019), but not in subjects with normal levels (p = 0.86). The relative risk of CRC given a low GTA-446 level was the highest for subjects under age 50 (10.1, 95% confidence interval [C.I.] = 6.4–16.4 in the reference population, and 7.7, 95% C.I. = 4.4–14.1 in the colonoscopy population, both p < 0.0001), and declined with age thereafter. The CRC incidence rate in subjects undergoing colonoscopy with low GTA-446 levels was over six times higher than for subjects with normal GTA-446 levels and twice that of subjects with gastrointestinal symptoms. The results show that a low-serum GTA-446 level is a significant risk factor for CRC, and a sensitive predictor of early-stage disease. PMID:22696299

The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

2018-03-01

For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

Prevalence and Determinants of Suboptimal Vitamin D Levels in a Multiethnic Asian Population.

PubMed

Man, Ryan Eyn Kidd; Li, Ling-Jun; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Wong, Tien Yin; Lamoureux, Ecosse; Sabanayagam, Charumathi

2017-03-22

This population-based cross-sectional study examined the prevalence and risk factors of suboptimal vitamin D levels (assessed using circulating 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D)) in a multi-ethnic sample of Asian adults. Plasma 25(OH)D concentration of 1139 Chinese, Malay and Indians (40-80 years) were stratified into normal (≥30 ng/mL), and suboptimal (including insufficiency and deficiency, <30 ng/mL) based on the 2011 Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines. Logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of demographic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors with the outcome. Of the 1139 participants, 25(OH)D concentration was suboptimal in 76.1%. In multivariable models, age ≤65 years (compared to age >65 years), Malay and Indian ethnicities (compared to Chinese ethnicity), and higher body mass index, HbA1c, education and income levels were associated with suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration ( p < 0.05). In a population-based sample of Asian adults, approximately 75% had suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration. Targeted interventions and stricter reinforcements of existing guidelines for vitamin D supplementation are needed for groups at risk of vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency.

Availability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to earthworms in urban soils and its implications for risk assessment.

PubMed

Cachada, A; Coelho, C; Gavina, A; Dias, A C; Patinha, C; Reis, A P; da Silva, E Ferreira; Duarte, A C; Pereira, R

2018-01-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a global problem, and in urban soils they can be found at potentially hazard levels. Nevertheless, the real risks that these contaminants pose to the environment are not well known, since the bioavailability of PAHs in urban soils has been poorly studied. Therefore, the bioavailability of PAHs in some selected urban soils from Lisbon (Portugal) was evaluated. Moreover, the applicability of a first screening phase based on total contents of PAHs was assessed. Results show that bioavailability of PAHs is reduced (low levels in earthworms, low accumulation percentages, and low biota-to-soil accumulation factors values), especially in more contaminated soils. The aging of these compounds explains this low availability, and confirms the generally accepted assumption that accumulation of PAHs in urban areas is mostly related with a long-term deposition of contaminated particles. The comparison of measured PAHs concentrations in earthworm tissues with the ones predicted based on theoretical models, reinforce that risks based on total levels are overestimated, but it can be a good initial approach for urban soils. This study also highlights the need of more reliable ecotoxicological data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and Determinants of Suboptimal Vitamin D Levels in a Multiethnic Asian Population

PubMed Central

Man, Ryan Eyn Kidd; Li, Ling-Jun; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Wong, Tien Yin; Lamoureux, Ecosse; Sabanayagam, Charumathi

2017-01-01

This population-based cross-sectional study examined the prevalence and risk factors of suboptimal vitamin D levels (assessed using circulating 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D)) in a multi-ethnic sample of Asian adults. Plasma 25(OH)D concentration of 1139 Chinese, Malay and Indians (40–80 years) were stratified into normal (≥30 ng/mL), and suboptimal (including insufficiency and deficiency, <30 ng/mL) based on the 2011 Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines. Logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of demographic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors with the outcome. Of the 1139 participants, 25(OH)D concentration was suboptimal in 76.1%. In multivariable models, age ≤65 years (compared to age >65 years), Malay and Indian ethnicities (compared to Chinese ethnicity), and higher body mass index, HbA1c, education and income levels were associated with suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration (p < 0.05). In a population-based sample of Asian adults, approximately 75% had suboptimal 25(OH)D concentration. Targeted interventions and stricter reinforcements of existing guidelines for vitamin D supplementation are needed for groups at risk of vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency. PMID:28327512

Integrating ecological risk assessments across levels of organization using the Franklin-Noss model of biodiversity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brugger, K.E.; Tiebout, H.M. III

1994-12-31

Wildlife toxicologists pioneered methodologies for assessing ecological risk to nontarget species. Historically, ecological risk assessments (ERAS) focused on a limited array of species and were based on a relatively few population-level endpoints (mortality, reproduction). Currently, risk assessment models are becoming increasingly complex that factor in multi-species interactions (across trophic levels) and utilize an increasingly diverse number of ecologically significant endpoints. This trend suggests the increasing importance of safeguarding not only populations of individual species, but also the overall integrity of the larger biotic systems that support them. In this sense, ERAs are in alignment with Conservation Biology, an applied sciencemore » of ecological knowledge used to conserve biodiversity. A theoretical conservation biology model could be incorporated in ERAs to quantify impacts to biodiversity (structure, function or composition across levels of biological organization). The authors suggest that the Franklin-Noss model for evaluating biodiversity, with its nested, hierarchical approach, may provide a suitable paradigm for assessing and integrating the ecological risk that chemical contaminants pose to biological systems from the simplest levels (genotypes, individual organisms) to the most complex levels of organization (communities and ecosystems). The Franklin-Noss model can accommodate the existing ecotoxicological database and, perhaps more importantly, indicate new areas in which critical endpoints should be identified and investigated.« less

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination.

PubMed

Burgess, Colleen; Burgess, Andrew; McMullen, Kellie

2017-01-01

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Risk Levels of Toxic Cyanobacteria in Portuguese Recreational Freshwaters

PubMed Central

Menezes, Carina; Dias, Elsa

2017-01-01

Portuguese freshwater reservoirs are important socio-economic resources, namely for recreational use. National legislation concerning bathing waters does not include mandatory levels or guidelines for cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins. This is an issue of concern since cyanotoxin-based evidence is insufficient to change the law, and the collection of scientific evidence has been hampered by the lack of regulatory levels for cyanotoxins in bathing waters. In this work, we evaluate the profile of cyanobacteria and microcystins (MC) in eight freshwater reservoirs from the center of Portugal, used for bathing/recreation, in order to determine the risk levels concerning toxic cyanobacteria occurrence. Three of the reservoirs did not pose a risk of MC contamination. However, two reservoirs presented a high risk in 7% of the samples according to the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for MC in bathing waters (above 20 µg/L). In the remaining three reservoirs, the risk concerning microcystins occurrence was low. However, they exhibited recurrent blooms and persistent contamination with MC up to 4 µg/L. Thus, the risk of exposure to MC and potential acute and/or chronic health outcomes should not be disregarded in these reservoirs. These results contribute to characterize the cyanobacterial blooms profile and to map the risk of toxic cyanobacteria and microcystins occurrence in Portuguese inland waters. PMID:29057822

Spatial clustering of average risks and risk trends in Bayesian disease mapping.

PubMed

Anderson, Craig; Lee, Duncan; Dean, Nema

2017-01-01

Spatiotemporal disease mapping focuses on estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across a set of nonoverlapping areal units over a fixed period of time. The key aim of such research is to identify areas that have a high average level of disease risk or where disease risk is increasing over time, thus allowing public health interventions to be focused on these areas. Such aims are well suited to the statistical approach of clustering, and while much research has been done in this area in a purely spatial setting, only a handful of approaches have focused on spatiotemporal clustering of disease risk. Therefore, this paper outlines a new modeling approach for clustering spatiotemporal disease risk data, by clustering areas based on both their mean risk levels and the behavior of their temporal trends. The efficacy of the methodology is established by a simulation study, and is illustrated by a study of respiratory disease risk in Glasgow, Scotland. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Low-level radiation: biological interactions, risks, and benefits. A bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1978-09-01

The bibliography contains 3294 references that were selected from the Department of Energy's data base (EDB). The subjects covered are lower-level radiation effects on man, environmental radiation, and other biological interactions of radiation that appear to be applicable to the low-level radiation problem.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is Veteran Status and Suicide Risk Assessed in Community Long-Term Care? A Review of the States' Assessment Instruments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthieu, Monica M.; Welch, Benjamin; Morrow-Howell, Nancy; Proctor, Enola; Nickel, Michael; Navarro, Jessica; Moon, Alyson

2010-01-01

Given recent policy initiatives to address suicide risk among older persons and veterans, community-based elder serving agencies may serve an important role in identifying and referring individuals at risk for suicide. A review of state-level long-term assessment instruments was conducted to determine whether veteran status and suicide are…

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

PubMed

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

Gender and perceptions of romantic partners' sexual risk.

PubMed

Conley, Terri D; Peplau, Letitia Anne

2010-02-01

Research shows that in most situations, women perceive themselves to be at greater risk of harm than do men. Gustafson's gender role perspective on risk perception suggests that this is because women are socialized to feel that they need protection, especially from men. Based on Gustafson's gender role perspective on sex differences in risk perception, we predicted that in at least one context, perception of romantic partners' sexual risk, this gender difference would be reversed. Specifically, women should rate boyfriends as having lower risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) than boyfriends rate themselves having. In two studies, we examined heterosexual couples and compared women's perceptions of their boyfriends' sexual risk level with the boyfriend's self-perception of sexual risk. Self-reported measures of risk for STIs, perception of romantic partners' risk for STIs. On multiple measures, women rated their boyfriends as having a lower risk for STIs than the men rated themselves. Men did not show this pattern and, in some cases, showed the reverse pattern of perceiving their girlfriends to have a greater level of risk than girlfriends themselves believed they had. Consistent with Gustafson's gender role perspective on risk perception, heterosexual women perceived their romantic partners as relatively less risky in terms of STI risk than men perceived themselves. One potential implication of this finding is that women may be less likely to protect themselves against disease in close romantic relationships because they believe that their partners are low risk, regardless of the partners' actual risk levels.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

PubMed Central

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Liu, Renzhi

2017-01-01

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents. PMID:28425956

Options and Risk for Qualification of Electric Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Michelle; Daniel, Charles; Cook, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Electric propulsion vehicle systems envelop a wide range of propulsion alternatives including solar and nuclear, which present unique circumstances for qualification. This paper will address the alternatives for qualification of electric propulsion spacecraft systems. The approach taken will be to address the considerations for qualification at the various levels of systems definition. Additionally, for each level of qualification the system level risk implications will be developed. Also, the paper will explore the implications of analysis verses test for various levels of systems definition, while retaining the objectives of a verification program. The limitations of terrestrial testing will be explored along with the risk and implications of orbital demonstration testing. The paper will seek to develop a template for structuring of a verification program based on cost, risk and value return. A successful verification program should establish controls and define objectives of the verification compliance program. Finally the paper will seek to address the political and programmatic factors, which may impact options for system verification.

PRN 96-8: Toxicologically Significant Levels of Pesticide Active Ingredients

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This notice sets out EPA's interpretation of the term toxicologically significant as it applies to contaminants in pesticide products that are also pesticide active ingredients. It provides risk-based concentration levels of such contaminants.

Ecological Soil Screening Level

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Eco-SSL derivation process is used to derive a set of risk-based ecological soil screening levels (Eco-SSLs) for many of the soil contaminants that are frequently of ecological concern for plants and animals at hazardous waste sites.

The Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP): A conceptual framework for advancing exposure science research and applications

EPA Science Inventory

Historically, risk assessment has relied upon toxicological data to obtain hazard-based reference levels, which are subsequently compared to exposure estimates to determine whether an unacceptable risk to public health may exist. Recent advances in analytical methods, biomarker ...

An AIDS Prevention Program for Adolescents with Special Learning Needs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reed, Nancy A.; And Others

1992-01-01

An AIDS risk assessment and intervention targeted special needs adolescents. Students completed questionnaires, and health professionals provided risk reduction education and counseling. A classroom curriculum based on student knowledge was developed. Teachers considered the classroom curriculum effective in increasing knowledge levels and…

Using stable isotopes to estimate habitat-based risk of contaminant exposure in fish

EPA Science Inventory

Sediment contamination is a common threat to sustainability in coastal ecosystems. For fish, the risk of exposure to contaminants will vary with respect to life history, including movements between contaminated inshore and less impacted offshore areas, trophic level, and habitat ...

Accidents in Coal Mining from Perspective of Risk Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khamidullina, E. A.; Timofeeva, S. S.; Smirnov, G. I.

2017-11-01

Introduction. The indicators of the safety system quality in the technosphere include risk indicators. The purpose of this work is to assess the social risk of coal mining since coal mining is associated with specific working conditions, and any emergency situation immediately jeopardizes thelives of many people at the same time. Methods. The work is based on the analysis of statistical information. Results and discussion. The F/N curve of coal mining for the 70-year period (1943-2012) was constructed, and the normative values of the social risk of Russia and other industrialized countries were discussed. Judging by the F/N diagram, only the frequency of accidents with a large number of deaths can correspond to the normative level indicating an exceptionally high level of coal mining risk.

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic forecast alerts under COMESEP alert system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbovic, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Khodia, Yamini; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-04-01

An automated space weather alert system has been developed under the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: http://comesep.aeronomy.be) to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. COMESEP alert system uses automated detection tool CACTus to detect potentially threatening CMEs, drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival and CME geo-effectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. Geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with COMESEP alert system based on a study of geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is done by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of DBM and CGFT (self standing tools available at Hvar Observatory website: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results implicate that the success rate of the forecast is higher with human intervention and using more advanced tools. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability".

The Relationship between Neighborhood Characteristics and Recruitment into Adolescent Family-Based Substance Use Prevention Programs

PubMed Central

Byrnes, Hilary F.; Miller, Brenda A.; Aalborg, Annette E.; Keagy, Carolyn D.

2011-01-01

Youth in disadvantaged neighborhoods are at risk for poor health outcomes. Characteristics of these neighborhoods may translate into intensified risk due to barriers utilizing preventive care, such as substance use prevention programs. While family-level risks affect recruitment into prevention programs, few studies have addressed the influence of neighborhood risks. This study consists of 744 families with an 11-12 year old child recruited for a family-based substance use prevention program. Using U.S. Census data, logistic regressions showed neighborhoods were related to recruitment, beyond individual characteristics. Greater neighborhood unemployment was related to decreased agreement to participate in the study and lower rates of high school graduation were related to lower levels of actual enrollment. Conversely, higher rates of single-female headed households were related to increased agreement. Recruitment procedures may need to recognize the variety of barriers and enabling forces within the neighborhood in developing different strategies for the recruitment of youth and their families. PMID:22042521

The relationship between neighborhood characteristics and recruitment into adolescent family-based substance use prevention programs.

PubMed

Byrnes, Hilary F; Miller, Brenda A; Aalborg, Annette E; Keagy, Carolyn D

2012-04-01

Youth in disadvantaged neighborhoods are at risk for poor health outcomes. Characteristics of these neighborhoods may translate into intensified risk due to barriers utilizing preventive care such as substance use prevention programs. While family-level risks affect recruitment into prevention programs, few studies have addressed the influence of neighborhood risks. This study consists of 744 families with an 11- to 12-year-old child recruited for a family-based substance use prevention program. Using US Census data, logistic regressions showed neighborhoods were related to recruitment, beyond individual characteristics. Greater neighborhood unemployment was related to decreased agreement to participate in the study and lower rates of high school graduation were related to lower levels of actual enrolment. Conversely, higher rates of single-female-headed households were related to increased agreement. Recruitment procedures may need to recognize the variety of barriers and enabling forces within the neighborhood in developing different strategies for the recruitment of youth and their families.

Constitutive RET tyrosine kinase activation in hereditary medullary thyroid cancer: clinical opportunities.

PubMed

Machens, A; Lorenz, K; Dralle, H

2009-07-01

The ground-breaking discovery of genotype-phenotype relationships in hereditary medullary thyroid cancer has greatly facilitated early prophylactic thyroidectomy. Its timing depends not solely on a positive gene test but, more importantly, on the type of the REarranged during Transfection (RET) mutation and its underlying mode of RET receptor tyrosine kinase activation. In the past decade, the therapeutic corridor opened by molecular information has been defined down to a remarkable level of detail. Based on mutational risk profiles, preemptive thyroidectomy is recommended at 6 months of age for carriers of highest-risk mutations, before the age of 5 years for carriers of high-risk mutations, and before the age of 5 or 10 years for carriers of least-high-risk mutations. Additional lymph node dissection may not be needed in the absence of increased preoperative basal calcitonin levels. Better comprehension of RET function should enable the design of targeted therapies for RET carriers beyond surgical cure in whom the DNA-based 'window of opportunity' has been missed.

An Updated Comprehensive Risk Analysis for Radioisotopes Identified of High Risk to National Security in the Event of a Radiological Dispersion Device Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Alexandra R.

An updated global survey of radioisotope production and distribution was completed and subjected to a revised "down-selection methodology" to determine those radioisotopes that should be classified as potential national security risks based on availability and key physical characteristics that could be exploited in a hypothetical radiological dispersion device. The potential at-risk radioisotopes then were used in a modeling software suite known as Turbo FRMAC, developed by Sandia National Laboratories, to characterize plausible contamination maps known as Protective Action Guideline Zone Maps. This software also was used to calculate the whole body dose equivalent for exposed individuals based on various dispersion parameters and scenarios. Derived Response Levels then were determined for each radioisotope using: 1) target doses to members of the public provided by the U.S. EPA, and 2) occupational dose limits provided by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The limiting Derived Response Level for each radioisotope also was determined.

PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

2006-01-01

The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codesmore » and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs.« less

Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes as a biomarker for cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Woo, Hae Dong; Kim, Jeongseon

2012-01-01

Good biomarkers for early detection of cancer lead to better prognosis. However, harvesting tumor tissue is invasive and cannot be routinely performed. Global DNA methylation of peripheral blood leukocyte DNA was evaluated as a biomarker for cancer risk. We performed a meta-analysis to estimate overall cancer risk according to global DNA hypomethylation levels among studies with various cancer types and analytical methods used to measure DNA methylation. Studies were systemically searched via PubMed with no language limitation up to July 2011. Summary estimates were calculated using a fixed effects model. The subgroup analyses by experimental methods to determine DNA methylation level were performed due to heterogeneity within the selected studies (p<0.001, I(2): 80%). Heterogeneity was not found in the subgroup of %5-mC (p = 0.393, I(2): 0%) and LINE-1 used same target sequence (p = 0.097, I(2): 49%), whereas considerable variance remained in LINE-1 (p<0.001, I(2): 80%) and bladder cancer studies (p = 0.016, I(2): 76%). These results suggest that experimental methods used to quantify global DNA methylation levels are important factors in the association study between hypomethylation levels and cancer risk. Overall, cancer risks of the group with the lowest DNA methylation levels were significantly higher compared to the group with the highest methylation levels [OR (95% CI): 1.48 (1.28-1.70)]. Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes may be a suitable biomarker for cancer risk. However, the association between global DNA methylation and cancer risk may be different based on experimental methods, and region of DNA targeted for measuring global hypomethylation levels as well as the cancer type. Therefore, it is important to select a precise and accurate surrogate marker for global DNA methylation levels in the association studies between global DNA methylation levels in peripheral leukocyte and cancer risk.

Association of Genetic Variants Related to Serum Calcium Levels With Coronary Artery Disease and Myocardial Infarction.

PubMed

Larsson, Susanna C; Burgess, Stephen; Michaëlsson, Karl

2017-07-25

Serum calcium has been associated with cardiovascular disease in observational studies and evidence from randomized clinical trials indicates that calcium supplementation, which raises serum calcium levels, may increase the risk of cardiovascular events, particularly myocardial infarction. To evaluate the potential causal association between genetic variants related to elevated serum calcium levels and risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial infarction using mendelian randomization. The analyses were performed using summary statistics obtained for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified from a genome-wide association meta-analysis of serum calcium levels (N = up to 61 079 individuals) and from the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis Plus the Coronary Artery Disease Genetics (CardiogramplusC4D) consortium's 1000 genomes-based genome-wide association meta-analysis (N = up to 184 305 individuals) that included cases (individuals with CAD and myocardial infarction) and noncases, with baseline data collected from 1948 and populations derived from across the globe. The association of each SNP with CAD and myocardial infarction was weighted by its association with serum calcium, and estimates were combined using an inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Genetic risk score based on genetic variants related to elevated serum calcium levels. Co-primary outcomes were the odds of CAD and myocardial infarction. Among the mendelian randomized analytic sample of 184 305 individuals (60 801 CAD cases [approximately 70% with myocardial infarction] and 123 504 noncases), the 6 SNPs related to serum calcium levels and without pleiotropic associations with potential confounders were estimated to explain about 0.8% of the variation in serum calcium levels. In the inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis (combining the estimates of the 6 SNPs), the odds ratios per 0.5-mg/dL increase (about 1 SD) in genetically predicted serum calcium levels were 1.25 (95% CI, 1.08-1.45; P = .003) for CAD and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.05-1.46; P = .009) for myocardial infarction. A genetic predisposition to higher serum calcium levels was associated with increased risk of CAD and myocardial infarction. Whether the risk of CAD associated with lifelong genetic exposure to increased serum calcium levels can be translated to a risk associated with short-term to medium-term calcium supplementation is unknown.

Risk Assessment in Underground Coalmines Using Fuzzy Logic in the Presence of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Ala, Charan Kumar

2018-04-01

Fatal accidents are occurring every year as regular events in Indian coal mining industry. To increase the safety conditions, it has become a prerequisite to performing a risk assessment of various operations in mines. However, due to uncertain accident data, it is hard to conduct a risk assessment in mines. The object of this study is to present a method to assess safety risks in underground coalmines. The assessment of safety risks is based on the fuzzy reasoning approach. Mamdani fuzzy logic model is developed in the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB. A case study is used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. The summary of risk evaluation in case study mine indicated that mine fire has the highest risk level among all the hazard factors. This study could help the mine management to prepare safety measures based on the risk rankings obtained.

An integrated approach to preventing cardiovascular disease: community-based approaches, health system initiatives, and public health policy.

PubMed

Karwalajtys, Tina; Kaczorowski, Janusz

2010-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is largely the product of interactions among modifiable risk factors that are common in developed nations and increasingly of concern in developing countries. Hypertension is an important precursor to the development of CVD, and although detection and treatment rates have improved in recent years in some jurisdictions, effective strategies and policies supporting a shift in distribution of risk factors at the population level remain paramount. Challenges in managing cardiovascular health more effectively include factors at the patient, provider, and system level. Strategies to reduce hypertension and CVD should be population based, incorporate multilevel, multicomponent, and socioenvironmental approaches, and integrate community resources with public health and clinical care. There is an urgent need to improve monitoring and management of risk factors through community-wide, primary care-linked initiatives, increase the evidence base for community-based prevention strategies, further develop and evaluate promising program components, and develop new approaches to support healthy lifestyle behaviors in diverse age, socioeconomic, and ethnocultural groups. Policy and system changes are critical to reduce risk in populations, including legislation and public education to reduce dietary sodium and trans-fatty acids, food pricing policies, and changes to health care delivery systems to explicitly support prevention and management of CVD.

Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for example, relocating levees, improving flood warning systems, or boosting overall economic resilience). The assessment includes the locations and numbers of people at risk, as well as the locations and value of buildings, roads and railways, and crops at risk. An accompanying atlas includes easy-to-use risk maps and tables for the Ganges basins.

Ergonomics Risk Assessment among support staff in Universiti Malaysia Pahang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jusoh, Faisal; Nafis Osman Zahid, Muhammed

2018-03-01

Awareness of ergonomic risk assessment among workers are getting intense in many industries nowadays. It is essential since most of the workers spend 7 to 8 hours of their time in the workplaces. Previous study shown that spending too much time with static posture in sitting at workplace leads to the problem of Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). The implications are not only harmful to human body but also effect the productivity. Currently, there are no scientific study conducted to assess the conditions of workers in Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP). Therefore, the problem of MSDs could not be justified clearly and the top management did not acknowledge this issue. This study aims to present current scenario of ergonomic risk level at UMP by using structured model. It focuses on operational staff from faculties and Human Resources Department (HRD). Initially, three types of assessments are executed based on general working condition, Cornell Muscokeletal Discomfort Questionnaire (CMDQ) and Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA). Based on the findings, 90% of the respondents felt discomfort at workplace but prefer to rectify the issues by themselves. Almost 50% of them evaluated themselves in level 4-5 of discomfort level. The CMDQ result shown the discomfort area at faculties and HRD. The workplace at faculties and HRD had been assessed through ROSA and the overall result shown the risk level is medium level respectively. Therefore, further investigation is requires and improvement of workplace need to be proposed to establish good working condition.

Food safety objective approach for controlling Clostridium botulinum growth and toxin production in commercially sterile foods.

PubMed

Anderson, N M; Larkin, J W; Cole, M B; Skinner, G E; Whiting, R C; Gorris, L G M; Rodriguez, A; Buchanan, R; Stewart, C M; Hanlin, J H; Keener, L; Hall, P A

2011-11-01

As existing technologies are refined and novel microbial inactivation technologies are developed, there is a growing need for a metric that can be used to judge equivalent levels of hazard control stringency to ensure food safety of commercially sterile foods. A food safety objective (FSO) is an output-oriented metric that designates the maximum level of a hazard (e.g., the pathogenic microorganism or toxin) tolerated in a food at the end of the food supply chain at the moment of consumption without specifying by which measures the hazard level is controlled. Using a risk-based approach, when the total outcome of controlling initial levels (H(0)), reducing levels (ΣR), and preventing an increase in levels (ΣI) is less than or equal to the target FSO, the product is considered safe. A cross-disciplinary international consortium of specialists from industry, academia, and government was organized with the objective of developing a document to illustrate the FSO approach for controlling Clostridium botulinum toxin in commercially sterile foods. This article outlines the general principles of an FSO risk management framework for controlling C. botulinum growth and toxin production in commercially sterile foods. Topics include historical approaches to establishing commercial sterility; a perspective on the establishment of an appropriate target FSO; a discussion of control of initial levels, reduction of levels, and prevention of an increase in levels of the hazard; and deterministic and stochastic examples that illustrate the impact that various control measure combinations have on the safety of well-established commercially sterile products and the ways in which variability all levels of control can heavily influence estimates in the FSO risk management framework. This risk-based framework should encourage development of innovative technologies that result in microbial safety levels equivalent to those achieved with traditional processing methods.

[Spanish Adaptation of the 2016 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice].

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Angel; Armario, Pedro; Lobos Bejarano, José María; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Villar Álvarez, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Brotons Cuixart, Carlos; Cortés, Olga; Serrano, Benilde; Camafort Babkowski, Miguel; Gil Núñez, Antonio; Pérez, Antonio; Maiques, Antonio; de Santiago Nocito, Ana; Castro, Almudena; Alegría, Eduardo; Baeza, Ciro; Herranz, María; Sans, Susana; Campos, Pilar

2016-11-24

The VI European Guidelines for Cardiovascular Prevention recommend combining population and high-risk strategies with lifestyle changes as a cornerstone of prevention, and propose the SCORE function to quantify cardiovascular risk. The guidelines highlight disease specific interventions, and conditions as women, young people and ethnic minorities. Screening for subclinical atherosclerosis with noninvasive imaging techniques is not recommended. The guidelines distinguish four risk levels (very high, high, moderate and low) with therapeutic objectives for lipid control according to risk. Diabetes mellitus confers a high risk, except for subjects with type 2 diabetes with less than 10 years of evolution, without other risk factors or complications, or type 1 diabetes of short evolution without complications. The decision to start pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension will depend on the blood pressure level and the cardiovascular risk, taking into account the lesion of target organs. The guidelines don't recommend antiplatelet drugs in primary prevention because of the increased bleeding risk. The low adherence to the medication requires simplified therapeutic regimes and to identify and combat its causes. The guidelines highlight the responsibility of health professionals to take an active role in advocating evidence-based interventions at the population level, and propose effective interventions, at individual and population level, to promote a healthy diet, the practice of physical activity, the cessation of smoking and the protection against alcohol abuse.

The association of hospital prevention processes and patient risk factors with the risk of Clostridium difficile infection: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Daneman, N; Guttmann, A; Wang, X; Ma, X; Gibson, D; Stukel, T A

2015-07-01

Clostridium difficile is the most common cause of healthcare-acquired infection; the real-world impacts of some proposed C. difficile prevention processes are unknown. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to acute care hospitals between April 2011 and March 2012 in Ontario, Canada. Hospital prevention practices were determined by survey of infection control programmes; responses were linked to patient-level risk factors and C. difficile outcomes in Ontario administrative databases. Multivariable generalised estimating equation (GEE) regression models were used to assess the impact of selected understudied hospital prevention processes on the patient-level risk of C. difficile infection, accounting for patient risk factors, baseline C. difficile rates and structural hospital characteristics. C. difficile infections complicated 2341 of 653 896 admissions (3.6 per 1000 admissions). Implementation of the selected C. difficile prevention practices was variable across the 159 hospitals with isolation of all patients at onset of diarrhoea reported by 43 (27%), auditing of antibiotic stewardship compliance by 26 (16%), auditing of cleaning practices by 115 (72%), on-site diagnostic testing by 74 (47%), vancomycin as first-line treatment by 24 (15%) and reporting rates to senior leadership by 52 (33%). None of these processes were associated with a significantly reduced risk of C. difficile after adjustment for baseline C. difficile rates, structural hospital characteristics and patient-level factors. Patient-level factors were strongly associated with C. difficile risk, including age, comorbidities, non-elective and medical admissions. In the largest study to date, selected hospital prevention strategies were not associated with a statistically significant reduction in patients' risk of C. difficile infection. These prevention strategies have either limited effectiveness or were ineffectively implemented during the study period. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Is the Robson's classification system burdened by obstetric pathologies, maternal characteristics and assistential levels in comparing hospitals cesarean rates? A regional analysis of class 1 and 3.

PubMed

Gerli, Sandro; Favilli, Alessandro; Franchini, David; De Giorgi, Marcello; Casucci, Paola; Parazzini, Fabio

2018-01-01

To assess if maternal risk profile and Hospital assistential levels were able to influence the inter-Hospitals comparison in the class 1 and 3 of the "The Ten Group Classification System" (TGCS). A population-based analysis using data from Institutional data-base of an Italian Region was carried out. The 11 maternity wards were divided into two categories: second-level hospitals (SLH), and first-level hospitals (FLH). The recorded deliveries were classified according to the TGCS. To analyze if different maternal characteristics and the hospitals assistential level could influence the cesarean section (CS) risk, a multivariate analysis was done considering separately women in the TGCS class 1 and 3. From January 2011 to December 2013 were recorded 19,987 deliveries. Of those 7,693 were in the TGCS class 1 and 4,919 in the class 3. The CS rates were 20.8% and 14.7% in class 1 (p < 0.0001) and 6.9% and 5.3% (p < 0.0230) in class 3, respectively in the FLH and SLH. The multivariate logistic regression showed that the FLH, older maternal age and gestational diabetes were independent risk factors for CS in groups 1 and 3. Obesity and gestational hypertension were also independent risk factors for group 1. TGCS is a useful tool to analyze the incidence of CS in a single center but in comparing different Hospitals, maternal characteristics and different assistential levels should be considered as potential bias.

Relationships among trust in messages, risk perception, and risk reduction preferences based upon avian influenza in Taiwan.

PubMed

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-08-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers' risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

Incorporating Bioaccessibility into Human Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Rice ( Oryza sativa L.): A Probabilistic-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Tianyuan; Song, Yinxian; Yuan, Xuyin; Li, Jizhou; Ji, Junfeng; Fu, Xiaowen; Zhang, Qiang; Guo, Shuhai

2018-06-06

A systematic investigation into total and bioaccessible heavy metal concentrations in rice grains harvested from heavy metal-contaminated regions was carried out to assess the potential health risk to local residents. Arsenic, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn concentrations were within acceptable levels while Cd and Ni concentrations appeared to be much higher than in other studies. The bioaccessibity of As, Cd, and Ni was high (>25%) and could be well predicted from their total concentrations. The noncarcinogenic risk posed by As and Cd was significant. The carcinogenic risk posed by all bioaccessible heavy metals at the fifth percentile was 10-fold higher than the acceptable level, and Cd and Ni were the major contributors. The contribution of each metal to the combined carcinogenic risk indicates that taking pertinent precautions for different types of cancer, aimed at individuals with different levels of exposure to heavy metals, will greatly reduce morbidity and mortality rates.

Evaluation of Biomonitoring Data from the CDC National ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BACKGROUND: Biomonitoring data reported in the National Report on Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals (NER) provide information on the presence and concentrations of more than 400 chemicals in human blood and urine. Biomonitoring Equivalents (BEs) and other risk assessment-based values now allow interpretation of these biomonitoring data in a public health risk context. OBJECTIVES: Compare the measured biomarker concentrations in the NER with BEs and similar risk assessment values to provide an across-chemical risk assessment perspective on the measured levels for approximately 130 analytes in the NER. METHODS: Available risk assessment-based biomarker screening values, including BEs and Human Biomonitoring-I (HBM-I) values from the German Human Biomonitoring Commission, were identified. Geometric mean and 95th percentile population biomarker concentrations from the NER were compared to the available screening values to generate chemical-specific hazard quotients (HQ) or cancer risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Several analytes in the NER approach or exceed HQ values of 1 or cancer risks greater than 1x 10-4 at the geometric mean or 95th percentile, suggesting exposure levels exceed what is considered safe in a large fraction of the population. Analytes of concern include acrylamide, dioxin-like chemicals, benzene, xylene, several metals, di-2(ethylhexyl)phthalate, and some legacy organochlorine pesticides. This analysis provides for the first time a mean

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

PubMed Central

Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-01-01

Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

PubMed

Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-06-01

This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

PubMed

Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

2017-11-15

This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still be exceeded in more than 70% of the samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classification of pregnancies of unknown location according to four different hCG-based protocols.

PubMed

Fistouris, J; Bergh, C; Strandell, A

2016-10-01

How do four protocols based on serial human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements perform when classifying pregnancies of unknown location (PULs) as low or high risk of being an ectopic pregnancy (EP)? The use of cut-offs in hCG level changes published by NICE, and a logistic regression model, M4, correctly classify more PULs as high risk, compared with two other protocols. A logistic regression model, M4, based on the mean of two consecutive hCG values and the hCG ratio (hCG 48 h/hCG 0 h) that classify PULs into low- and high-risk groups for triage purposes, identifies more EPs than a protocol using the cut-offs between a 13% decline and a 66% rise in hCG levels over 48 h. A retrospective comparative study of four different hCG-based protocols classifying PULs as low or high risk of being an EP was performed at a gynaecological emergency unit over 3 years. We identified 915 women with a PUL. Initial transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) findings categorised 187 of the PULs as probable intrauterine pregnancies (IUPs) and 16 as probable EPs. The rate of change in hCG levels over 48 h was calculated for each patient and subjected to three different hCG threshold intervals and a logistic regression model for outcome prediction. Each PUL was subsequently dichotomised to either low-risk (i.e. failed PUL/IUP) or high-risk (i.e. EP) classification, which allowed us to compare the diagnostic performance. In 'Protocol A', a PUL was classified as low risk if >13% hCG level decline or >66% hCG level rise was achieved; otherwise, the PUL was classified as high risk of being an EP. 'Protocol B' classified a PUL as low or high risk using cut-offs of 35-50% declining hCG levels and of 53% rising hCG levels. Similarly, 'Protocol C' used hCG level cut-offs published by NICE, 50% for declining hCG levels and 63% for rising hCG levels. Finally, if a logistic regression model 'Protocol M4' calculated a ≥5% risk of the PUL being an EP, it was classified as high risk, and otherwise the PUL was classified as low risk. When the time interval between two hCG measurements failed to meet an exact 48 h, extrapolation and interpolation of hCG values was made, using log linear transformation. Protocols A, B, C and M4 classified 73, 66, 55 and 56% of PULs as low risk. The sensitivity for protocols A, B, C and M4 was 68% (95% confidence interval (CI) 61-75%), 81% (74-86%), 87% (82-92%) and 88% (83-93%), respectively. The specificity was 82% (80-85%), 77% (74-80%), 66% (62-69%) and 67% (63-70%) for protocols A, B, C and M4, respectively. All comparisons of sensitivity and specificity between the protocols were statistically significant except for protocol C versus protocol M4. In protocol C, 87% (66-97%) of misclassified EPs had rising hCG levels, compared with 19% (6-41%) for protocol M4 (P < 0.01). In a secondary analysis excluding probable IUPs and probable EPs, the results for 712 PULs were analysed. The sensitivity subsequently remained stable for all protocols. Protocol M4 reached a 78% (74-81%) specificity, which was significantly higher than 70% (66-74%) for protocol C (P = 0.01) and protocol M4 classified 63% of PULs as low risk compared with 58% for protocol C. The retrospective design of the study is a limitation. The results are derived from a population where laparoscopy played an important role in PUL management and diagnosis of EPs, although it did reflect real clinical practice. Although we tried to adhere to definitions of PUL and final outcomes as in previous studies and a recent consensus statement, potential differences in this regard must be acknowledged. Where the time interval between two serial hCG measurements deviated from 48 h we estimated 48 h hCG values. A logistic regression model, M4, classifies more PULs correctly as low risk in a selected PUL population without probable IUPs and EPs and identifies as many EPs, in comparison with the cut-offs available in the NICE guideline. This advantage for model M4 may result in a reduction of unnecessary follow-up visits, when fewer low-risk PULs are misclassified as high risk. These findings, however, ought to be clarified in a randomised controlled trial. The study was supported by LUA/ALF grant No. 70940. There are no competing interests. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Exploring agent-level calculations of risk and returns in relation to observed land-use changes in the US Great Plains, 1870–1940

PubMed Central

Sylvester, Kenneth M.; Brown, Daniel G.; Leonard, Susan H.; Merchant, Emily; Hutchins, Meghan

2015-01-01

Land-use change in the U.S. Great Plains since agricultural settlement in the second half of the nineteenth century has been well documented. While aggregate historical trends are easily tracked, the decision-making of individual farmers is difficult to reconstruct. We use an agent-based model to tell the history of the settlement of the West by simulating farm-level agricultural decision making based on historical data about prices, yields, farming costs, and environmental conditions. The empirical setting for the model is the period between 1875 and 1940 in two townships in Kansas, one in the shortgrass region and the other in the mixed grass region. Annual historical data on yields and prices determine profitability of various land uses and thereby inform decision-making, in conjunction with the farmer’s previous experience and randomly assigned levels of risk aversion. Results illustrating the level of agreement between model output and unique and detailed household-level records of historical land use and farm size suggest that economic behavior and natural endowments account for land change processes to some degree, but are incomplete. Discrepancies are examined to identify missing processes through model experiments, in which we adjust input and output prices, crop yields, agent memory, and risk aversion. These analyses demonstrate how agent-based modeling can be a useful laboratory for thinking about social and economic behavior in the past. PMID:25729323

Impact of Hormone-Associated Resistance to Activated Protein C on the Thrombotic Potential of Oral Contraceptives: A Prospective Observational Study

PubMed Central

Müller, Jens; Sukhitashvili, Shorena; Welz, Julia; Kuhn, Walther C.; Oldenburg, Johannes; Rudlowski, Christian; Pötzsch, Bernd

2014-01-01

Introduction The increased thrombotic risk of oral contraceptives (OC) has been attributed to various alterations of the hemostatic system, including acquired resistance to activated protein C (APC). To evaluate to what extent OC-associated APC resistance induces a prothrombotic state we monitored plasma levels of thrombin and molecular markers specific for thrombin formation in women starting OC use. Elevated plasma levels of thrombin have been reported to characterize situations of high thrombotic risk such as trauma-induced hypercoagulability, but have not yet been studied during OC use. Patients and Methods Blood samples were collected prospectively from healthy women (n = 21) before and during three menstruation cycles after start of OC. APC resistance was evaluated using a thrombin generation-based assay. Plasma levels of thrombin and APC were directly measured using highly sensitive oligonucleotide-based enzyme capture assay (OECA) technology. Thrombin generation markers and other hemostasis parameters were measured additionally. Results All women developed APC resistance as indicated by an increased APC sensitivity ratio compared with baseline after start of OC (p = 0.0003). Simultaneously, plasma levels of thrombin, prothrombin fragment 1+2, and of thrombin-antithrombin complexes did not change, ruling out increased thrombin formation. APC plasma levels were also not influenced by OC use, giving further evidence that increased thrombin formation did not occur. Conclusions In the majority of OC users no enhanced thrombin formation occurs despite the development of APC resistance. It cannot be ruled out, however, that thrombin formation might occur to a greater extent in the presence of additional risk factors. If this were the case, endogenous thrombin levels might be a potential biomarker candidate to identify women at high thrombotic risk during OC treatment. Large-scale studies are required to assess the value of plasma levels of thrombin as predictors of OC-associated thrombotic risk. PMID:25121606

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Frequency of Testing for Dyslipidemia: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Dyslipidemias include high levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Dyslipidemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, which is a major contributor to mortality in Canada. Approximately 23% of the 2009/11 Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) participants had a high level of LDL cholesterol, with prevalence increasing with age, and approximately 15% had a total cholesterol to HDL ratio above the threshold. Objectives To evaluate the frequency of lipid testing in adults not diagnosed with dyslipidemia and in adults on treatment for dyslipidemia. Research Methods A systematic review of the literature set out to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs), systematic reviews, health technology assessments (HTAs), and observational studies published between January 1, 2000, and November 29, 2012, that evaluated the frequency of testing for dyslipidemia in the 2 populations. Results Two observational studies assessed the frequency of lipid testing, 1 in individuals not on lipid-lowering medications and 1 in treated individuals. Both studies were based on previously collected data intended for a different objective and, therefore, no conclusions could be reached about the frequency of testing at intervals other than the ones used in the original studies. Given this limitation and generalizability issues, the quality of evidence was considered very low. No evidence for the frequency of lipid testing was identified in the 2 HTAs included. Canadian and international guidelines recommend testing for dyslipidemia in individuals at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease. The frequency of testing recommended is based on expert consensus. Conclusions Conclusions on the frequency of lipid testing could not be made based on the 2 observational studies. Current guidelines recommend lipid testing in adults with increased cardiovascular risk, with the frequency of testing based on individual cardiovascular risk. PMID:26316920

Environmental Risk Factors influencing Bicycle Theft: A Spatial Analysis in London, UK.

PubMed

Mburu, Lucy Waruguru; Helbich, Marco

2016-01-01

Urban authorities are continuously drawing up policies to promote cycling among commuters. However, these initiatives are counterproductive for the targeted objectives because they increase opportunities for bicycle theft. This paper explores Inner London as a case study to address place-specific risk factors for bicycle theft at the street-segment level while controlling for seasonal variation. The presence of certain public amenities (e.g., bicycle stands, railway stations, pawnshops) was evaluated against locations of bicycle theft between 2013 and 2016 and risk effects were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Results showed that a greater level of risk stemmed from land-use facilities than from area-based socioeconomic status. The presence of facilities such as train stations, vacant houses, pawnbrokers and payday lenders increased bicycle theft, but no evidence was found that linked police stations with crime levels. The findings have significant implications for urban crime prevention with respect to non-residential land use.

Low maternal vitamin D as a risk factor for schizophrenia: a pilot study using banked sera.

PubMed

McGrath, John; Eyles, Darryl; Mowry, Bryan; Yolken, Robert; Buka, Stephen

2003-09-01

Evidence from epidemiology suggests that low maternal vitamin D may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. Based on sera taken during the third trimester, we compared the level of 25 hydroxyvitamin D3 in mothers of individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders versus mothers of unaffected controls. For each case, we selected two controls matched on race, gender and date of birth of the offspring. There was no significant difference in third trimester maternal vitamin D in the entire sample (cases = 26, controls = 51). Within the subgroup of black individuals (n = 21), there was a trend level difference in the predicted direction. Maternal vitamin D does not operate as a continuous graded risk factor for schizophrenia, however, the results in the black subgroup raise the possibility that below a certain critical threshold, low levels of maternal vitamin D may be associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia.

[National health fund and morbidity-based risk structure equalization with focus on haemophilia].

PubMed

König, T

2010-11-01

The Gesundheitsfonds (national health fund) was established in Germany on January 1st, 2009, in combination with the morbidity-based risk structure equalization (RSA) in order to manage the cash flow between the statutory health insurances. The RSA equalizes income differences due to the varying levels of contributory income of the members of a health insurance (basic wage totals) and expenditure differences due to varying distribution of morbidity risks across different health insurances, as well as the varying numbers of non-contributing insured family members. Additionally, insured persons are allocated to morbidity groups according to a classification model based upon diagnoses and prescriptions anticipating medical expenses in the subsequent year. Haemophilia falls, among 80 disease entities, in the morbidity group which generates the highest risk supplement. Matching of prescribed drugs with disease entities facilitates disease grading and improves the accuracy of risk supplements.

A community pharmacy-based cardiovascular risk screening service implemented in Iran

PubMed Central

Hakimzadeh, Negar; Najafi, Sheyda; Javadi, Mohammad R.; Hadjibabaie, Molouk

2017-01-01

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major health concern around the world. Objective: To assess the outcomes and feasibility of a pharmacy-based cardiovascular screening in an urban referral community pharmacy in Iran. Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted in a referral community pharmacy. Subjects aged between 30-75 years without previous diagnose of cardiovascular disease or diabetes were screened. Measurement of all major cardiovascular risk factors, exercise habits, medical conditions, medications, and family history were investigated. Framingham risk score was calculated and high risk individuals were given a clinical summary sheet signed by a clinical pharmacist and were encouraged to follow up with their physician. Subjects were contacted one month after the recruitment period and their adherence to the follow up recommendation was recorded. Results: Data from 287 participants were analyzed and 146 were referred due to at least one abnormal laboratory test. The results showed 26 patients with cardiovascular disease risk greater than 20%, 32 high systolic blood pressure, 22 high diastolic blood pressures, 50 high total cholesterol levels, 108 low HDL-C levels, and 22 abnormal blood glucose levels. Approximately half of the individuals who received a follow up recommendation had made an appointment with their physician. Overall, 15.9% of the individuals received medications and 15.9% received appropriate advice for risk factor modification. Moreover, 7.5% were under evaluation by a physician. Conclusion: A screening program in a community pharmacy has the potential to identify patients with elevated cardiovascular risk factor. A plan for increased patient adherence to follow up recommendations is required. PMID:28690693

The use of biomonitoring data in exposure and human health risk assessment: benzene case study.

PubMed

Arnold, Scott M; Angerer, Juergen; Boogaard, Peter J; Hughes, Michael F; O'Lone, Raegan B; Robison, Steven H; Schnatter, A Robert

2013-02-01

Abstract A framework of "Common Criteria" (i.e. a series of questions) has been developed to inform the use and evaluation of biomonitoring data in the context of human exposure and risk assessment. The data-rich chemical benzene was selected for use in a case study to assess whether refinement of the Common Criteria framework was necessary, and to gain additional perspective on approaches for integrating biomonitoring data into a risk-based context. The available data for benzene satisfied most of the Common Criteria and allowed for a risk-based evaluation of the benzene biomonitoring data. In general, biomarker (blood benzene, urinary benzene and urinary S-phenylmercapturic acid) central tendency (i.e. mean, median and geometric mean) concentrations for non-smokers are at or below the predicted blood or urine concentrations that would correspond to exposure at the US Environmental Protection Agency reference concentration (30 µg/m(3)), but greater than blood or urine concentrations relating to the air concentration at the 1 × 10(-5) excess cancer risk (2.9 µg/m(3)). Smokers clearly have higher levels of benzene exposure, and biomarker levels of benzene for non-smokers are generally consistent with ambient air monitoring results. While some biomarkers of benzene are specific indicators of exposure, the interpretation of benzene biomonitoring levels in a health-risk context are complicated by issues associated with short half-lives and gaps in knowledge regarding the relationship between the biomarkers and subsequent toxic effects.

Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

Telehealth personalized cancer risk communication to motivate colonoscopy in relatives of patients with colorectal cancer: the family CARE Randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kinney, Anita Y; Boonyasiriwat, Watcharaporn; Walters, Scott T; Pappas, Lisa M; Stroup, Antoinette M; Schwartz, Marc D; Edwards, Sandra L; Rogers, Amy; Kohlmann, Wendy K; Boucher, Kenneth M; Vernon, Sally W; Simmons, Rebecca G; Lowery, Jan T; Flores, Kristina; Wiggins, Charles L; Hill, Deirdre A; Burt, Randall W; Williams, Marc S; Higginbotham, John C

2014-03-01

The rate of adherence to regular colonoscopy screening in individuals at increased familial risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) is suboptimal, especially among rural and other geographically underserved populations. Remote interventions may overcome geographic and system-level barriers. We compared the efficacy of a telehealth-based personalized risk assessment and communication intervention with a mailed educational brochure for improving colonoscopy screening among at-risk relatives of patients with CRC. Eligible individuals age 30 to 74 years who were not up-to-date with risk-appropriate screening and were not candidates for genetic testing were recruited after contacting patients with CRC or their next of kin in five states. Enrollees were randomly assigned as family units to either an active, personalized intervention that incorporated evidence-based risk communication and behavior change techniques, or a mailed educational brochure. The primary outcome was medically verified colonoscopy within 9 months of the intervention. Of the 481 eligible and randomly assigned at-risk relatives, 79.8% completed the outcome assessments within 9 months; 35.4% of those in the personalized intervention group and 15.7% of those in the comparison group obtained a colonoscopy. In an intent-to-treat analysis, the telehealth group was almost three times as likely to get screened as the low-intensity comparison group (odds ratio, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.87 to 4.28; P < .001). Persons residing in rural areas and those with lower incomes benefitted at the same level as did urban residents. Remote personalized interventions that consider family history and incorporate evidence-based risk communication and behavior change strategies may promote risk-appropriate screening in close relatives of patients with CRC.

Telehealth Personalized Cancer Risk Communication to Motivate Colonoscopy in Relatives of Patients With Colorectal Cancer: The Family CARE Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Kinney, Anita Y.; Boonyasiriwat, Watcharaporn; Walters, Scott T.; Pappas, Lisa M.; Stroup, Antoinette M.; Schwartz, Marc D.; Edwards, Sandra L.; Rogers, Amy; Kohlmann, Wendy K.; Boucher, Kenneth M.; Vernon, Sally W.; Simmons, Rebecca G.; Lowery, Jan T.; Flores, Kristina; Wiggins, Charles L.; Hill, Deirdre A.; Burt, Randall W.; Williams, Marc S.; Higginbotham, John C.

2014-01-01

Purpose The rate of adherence to regular colonoscopy screening in individuals at increased familial risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) is suboptimal, especially among rural and other geographically underserved populations. Remote interventions may overcome geographic and system-level barriers. We compared the efficacy of a telehealth-based personalized risk assessment and communication intervention with a mailed educational brochure for improving colonoscopy screening among at-risk relatives of patients with CRC. Methods Eligible individuals age 30 to 74 years who were not up-to-date with risk-appropriate screening and were not candidates for genetic testing were recruited after contacting patients with CRC or their next of kin in five states. Enrollees were randomly assigned as family units to either an active, personalized intervention that incorporated evidence-based risk communication and behavior change techniques, or a mailed educational brochure. The primary outcome was medically verified colonoscopy within 9 months of the intervention. Results Of the 481 eligible and randomly assigned at-risk relatives, 79.8% completed the outcome assessments within 9 months; 35.4% of those in the personalized intervention group and 15.7% of those in the comparison group obtained a colonoscopy. In an intent-to-treat analysis, the telehealth group was almost three times as likely to get screened as the low-intensity comparison group (odds ratio, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.87 to 4.28; P < .001). Persons residing in rural areas and those with lower incomes benefitted at the same level as did urban residents. Conclusion Remote personalized interventions that consider family history and incorporate evidence-based risk communication and behavior change strategies may promote risk-appropriate screening in close relatives of patients with CRC. PMID:24449229

Exposure to Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors Partially Explains Mean Differences in Self-Regulation between Races.

PubMed

Barnes, J C; Boutwell, Brian B; Miller, J Mitchell; DeShay, Rashaan A; Beaver, Kevin M; White, Norman

2016-01-01

To examine whether differential exposure to pre- and perinatal risk factors explained differences in levels of self-regulation between children of different races (White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Other). Multiple regression models based on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (n ≈ 9,850) were used to analyze the impact of pre- and perinatal risk factors on the development of self-regulation at age 2 years. Racial differences in levels of self-regulation were observed. Racial differences were also observed for 9 of the 12 pre-/perinatal risk factors. Multiple regression analyses revealed that a portion of the racial differences in self-regulation was explained by differential exposure to several of the pre-/perinatal risk factors. Specifically, maternal age at childbirth, gestational timing, and the family's socioeconomic status were significantly related to the child's level of self-regulation. These factors accounted for a statistically significant portion of the racial differences observed in self-regulation. The findings indicate racial differences in self-regulation may be, at least partially, explained by racial differences in exposure to pre- and perinatal risk factors.

Awareness levels about breast cancer risk factors, early warning signs, and screening and therapeutic approaches among Iranian adult women: a large population based study using latent class analysis.

PubMed

Tazhibi, Mahdi; Feizi, Awat

2014-01-01

Breast cancer (BC) continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality among women throughout the world and in Iran. Lack of awareness and early detection program in developing country is a main reason for escalating the mortality. The present research was conducted to assess the Iranian women's level of knowledge about breast cancer risk factors, early warning signs, and therapeutic and screening approaches, and their correlated determinants. In a cross-sectional study, 2250 women before participating at a community based screening and public educational program in an institute of cancer research in Isfahan, Iran, in 2012 were investigated using a self-administered questionnaire about risk factors, early warning signs, and therapeutic and screening approaches of BC. Latent class regression as a comprehensive statistical method was used for evaluating the level of knowledge and its correlated determinants. Only 33.2%, 31.9%, 26.7%, and 35.8% of study participants had high awareness levels about screening approaches, risk factors, early warning signs and therapeutic modalities of breast cancer, respectively, and majority had poor to moderate knowledge levels. Most effective predictors of high level of awareness were higher educational qualifications, attending in screening and public educational programs, personal problem, and family history of BC, respectively. Results of current study indicated that the levels of awareness among study population about key elements of BC are low. These findings reenforce the continuing need for more BC education through conducting public and professional programs that are intended to raise awareness among younger, single women and those with low educational attainments and without family history.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Subclinical Thyroid Disease

PubMed Central

Kim, Ye An

2014-01-01

Subclinical thyroid disease is defined biochemically by an abnormal thyrotropin (TSH) level and normal serum-free thyroxine level. The prevalence of this condition varies according to the reference range for TSH and geographic or demographic factors. Recently, several studies, including our community-based cohort studies, have reported on the incidence of subclinical thyroid disease in Korea. Using these studies, we reviewed the prevalence and risk factors of subclinical thyroid disease, focusing on subclinical hypothyroidism. PMID:24741450

An Overview of Measurement Method Tools Available to Communities for Conducting Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Community-based programs for assessing and mitigating nvironmental risks represent a challenge to participants because each brings a different level of understanding of the issues affecting the community. These programs often require the collaboration of several community sectors...

Evaluation of cost-effective sol-gel-based sensor for monitoring of formaldehyde in workplace environment and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Bunkoed, Opas; Thavarungkul, Panote; Thammakhet, Chongdee; Kanatharana, Proespichaya

2013-01-01

Formaldehyde was monitored in the workplace environment of an adhesive manufacturer producing formaldehyde and urea-formaldehyde resin using a cost-effective sol-gel-based sensor. The sensor was first evaluated by comparing its performance to the conventional 2,4-dinitrophynylhydrazine-devivatization method (2,4-DNPH) followed by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to a UV detector. The formaldehyde concentrations obtained by both techniques were not significantly different. The cost-effective sol-gel-based sensor was then used for monitoring formaldehyde levels in the laboratories, production areas and storage room. Formaldehyde concentrations in this adhesive manufacturer workplace environment were lower than the limit value of, 0.75 ppm for an 8-h time weight average and 2 ppm for a short-term exposure (15 min). However, the cancer risk for employees who worked in the laboratories, (1.7±0.7)×10(-4)-(5±2)×10(-4), were higher than the acceptable cancer risk recommended by the US EPA (10(-6)). Therefore, some precaution should be taken to reduce the risk, such as an increase of ventilation to dilute the levels of formaldehyde and use air cleaners to remove formaldehyde.

The Impact of School Environment and Grade Level on Student Delinquency: A Multilevel Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lo, Celia C.; Kim, Young S.; Allen, Thomas M.; Allen, Andrea N.; Minugh, P. Allison; Lomuto, Nicoletta

2011-01-01

Effects on delinquency made by grade level, school type (based on grade levels accommodated), and prosocial school climate were assessed, controlling for individual-level risk and protective factors. Data were obtained from the Substance Abuse Services Division of Alabama's state mental health agency and analyzed via hierarchical linear modeling,…

Requirements based system level risk modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steven; Feather, Martin

2004-01-01

The problem that we address in this paper is assessing the expected degree of success of the system or mission based on the degree to which each requirement is satisfied and the relative weight of the requirements.

Youth misperceptions of peer substance use norms: a hidden risk factor in state and community prevention.

PubMed

Wambeam, Rodney A; Canen, Eric L; Linkenbach, Jeff; Otto, Jay

2014-02-01

Effective community prevention of substance abuse involves the integration of policies and programs to address many different risk and protective factors across the social ecology. This study sought to examine whether youth perceptions of peer substance use norms were operating as a risk factor at the same level as other known risk factors in a statewide community prevention effort. Several different analytical techniques were employed to examine the self-reported data from a sample of over 8,000 students in grades 6, 8, 10, and 12 from across Wyoming using a survey based on a risk and protective factor model. The findings of this study revealed that youth misperception of peer substance use norms operate at a level of significance similar to other known risk factors, and these misperceptions are a risk factor that should be measured in order to estimate its relationship with substance use. The measurement of this risk factor has important strategic implications for community prevention.

Potable Water Reuse: What Are the Microbiological Risks?

PubMed

Nappier, Sharon P; Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E

2018-06-01

With the increasing interest in recycling water for potable reuse purposes, it is important to understand the microbial risks associated with potable reuse. This review focuses on potable reuse systems that use high-level treatment and de facto reuse scenarios that include a quantifiable wastewater effluent component. In this article, we summarize the published human health studies related to potable reuse, including both epidemiology studies and quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Overall, there have been relatively few health-based studies evaluating the microbial risks associated with potable reuse. Several microbial risk assessments focused on risks associated with unplanned (or de facto) reuse, while others evaluated planned potable reuse, such as indirect potable reuse (IPR) or direct potable reuse (DPR). The reported QMRA-based risks for planned potable reuse varied substantially, indicating there is a need for risk assessors to use consistent input parameters and transparent assumptions, so that risk results are easily translated across studies. However, the current results overall indicate that predicted risks associated with planned potable reuse scenarios may be lower than those for de facto reuse scenarios. Overall, there is a clear need to carefully consider water treatment train choices when wastewater is a component of the drinking water supply (whether de facto, IPR, or DPR). More data from full-scale water treatment facilities would be helpful to quantify levels of viruses in raw sewage and reductions across unit treatment processes for both culturable and molecular detection methods.

Participatory Risk Mapping of Malaria Vector Exposure in Northern South America using Environmental and Population Data

PubMed Central

Fuller, D.O.; Troyo, A.; Alimi, T.O.; Beier, J.C.

2014-01-01

Malaria elimination remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including large areas of northern South America. In this study, we present a new high spatial resolution (90 × 90 m) risk map for Colombia and surrounding areas based on environmental and human population data. The map was created through a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis in which expert opinion was solicited to determine key environmental and population risk factors, different fuzzy functions to standardize risk factor inputs, and variable factor weights to combine risk factors in a geographic information system. The new risk map was compared to a map of malaria cases in which cases were aggregated to the municipio (municipality) level. The relationship between mean municipio risk scores and total cases by muncípio showed a weak correlation. However, the relationship between pixel-level risk scores and vector occurrence points for two dominant vector species, Anopheles albimanus and An. darlingi, was significantly different (p < 0.05) from a random point distribution, as was a pooled point distribution for these two vector species and An. nuneztovari. Thus, we conclude that the new risk map derived based on expert opinion provides an accurate spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure rather than malaria transmission as shown by the pattern of malaria cases, and therefore it may be used to inform public health authorities as to where vector control measures should be prioritized to limit human-vector contact in future malaria outbreaks. PMID:24976656

Community and Individual Risk Factors for Physical Child Abuse and Child Neglect: Variations by Poverty Status.

PubMed

Maguire-Jack, Kathryn; Font, Sarah A

2017-08-01

Families are impacted by a variety of risk and protective factors for maltreatment at multiple levels of the social ecology. Individual- and neighborhood-level poverty has consistently been shown to be associated with higher risk for child abuse and neglect. The current study sought to understand the ways in which individual- and neighborhood-level risk and protective factors affect physical child abuse and child neglect and whether these factors differed for families based on their individual poverty status. Specifically, we used a three-level hierarchical linear model (families nested within census tracts and nested within cities) to estimate the relationships between physical child abuse and child neglect and neighborhood structural factors, neighborhood processes, and individual characteristics. We compared these relationships between lower and higher income families in a sample of approximately 3,000 families from 50 cities in the State of California. We found that neighborhood-level disadvantage was especially detrimental for families in poverty and that neighborhood-level protective processes (social) were not associated with physical child abuse and child neglect for impoverished families, but that they had a protective effect for higher income families.

Risk analysis and its link with standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health.

PubMed

Sugiura, K; Murray, N

2011-04-01

Among the agreements included in the treaty that created the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January 1995 is the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) that sets out the basic rules for food safety and animal and plant health standards. The SPS Agreement designates the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) as the organisation responsible for developing international standards for animal health and zoonoses. The SPS Agreement requires that the sanitary measures that WTO members apply should be based on science and encourages them to either apply measures based on the OIE standards or, if they choose to adopt a higher level of protection than that provided by these standards, apply measures based on a science-based risk assessment. The OIE also provides a procedural framework for risk analysis for its Member Countries to use. Despite the inevitable challenges that arise in carrying out a risk analysis of the international trade in animals and animal products, the OIE risk analysis framework provides a structured approach that facilitates the identification, assessment, management and communication of these risks.

Comparisons of predictors for typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Kolkata, India

PubMed Central

Sur, Dipika; Ali, Mohammad; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Manna, Byomkesh; Deen, Jacqueline L; Acosta, Camilo J; Clemens, John D; Bhattacharya, Sujit K

2007-01-01

Background: Exposure of the individual to contaminated food or water correlates closely with the risk for enteric fever. Since public health interventions such as water improvement or vaccination campaigns are implemented for groups of individuals we were interested whether risk factors not only for the individual but for households, neighbourhoods and larger areas can be recognised? Methods: We conducted a large enteric fever surveillance study and analyzed factors which correlate with enteric fever on an individual level and factors associated with high and low risk areas with enteric fever incidence. Individual level data were linked to a population based geographic information systems. Individual and household level variables were fitted in Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) with the logit link function to take into account the likelihood that household factors correlated within household members. Results: Over a 12-month period 80 typhoid fever cases and 47 paratyphoid fever cases were detected among 56,946 residents in two bustees (slums) of Kolkata, India. The incidence of paratyphoid fever was lower (0.8/1000/year), and the mean age of paratyphoid patients was older (17.1 years) than for typhoid fever (incidence 1.4/1000/year, mean age 14.7 years). Residents in areas with a high risk for typhoid fever had lower literacy rates and economic status, bigger household size, and resided closer to waterbodies and study treatment centers than residents in low risk areas. Conclusion: There was a close correlation between the characteristics detected based on individual cases and characteristics associated with high incidence areas. Because the comparison of risk factors of populations living in high versus low risk areas is statistically very powerful this methodology holds promise to detect risk factors associated with diseases using geographic information systems. PMID:17935611

Aircraft, road and railway traffic noise as risk factors for heart failure and hypertensive heart disease-A case-control study based on secondary data.

PubMed

Seidler, Andreas; Wagner, Mandy; Schubert, Melanie; Dröge, Patrik; Römer, Karin; Pons-Kühnemann, Jörn; Swart, Enno; Zeeb, Hajo; Hegewald, Janice

2016-11-01

Several studies point to an elevated risk for cardiovascular diseases induced by traffic noise. We examined the association between aircraft, road traffic and railway noise and heart failure or hypertensive heart disease (HHD) in a large case-control study. The study population consisted of individuals that were insured by three large statutory health insurance funds in the Rhine-Main area of Germany. Based on insurance claims and prescription data, 104,145 cases of heart failure or HHD diagnosed 2006-10 were identified and compared with 654,172 control subjects. Address-specific exposure to aircraft, road and railway traffic noise in 2005 was estimated. Odds Ratios were calculated using logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, local proportion of persons receiving unemployment benefits, and individual socioeconomic status (available for 39% of the individuals). A statistically significant linear exposure-risk relationship with heart failure or hypertensive heart disease was found for aircraft traffic noise (1.6% risk increase per 10dB increase in the 24-h continuous noise level; 95% CI 0.3-3.0%), road traffic noise (2.4% per 10dB; 95% CI 1.6-3.2%), and railway noise (3.1% per 10dB; 95% CI 2.2-4.1%). For individuals with 24-h continuous aircraft noise levels <40dB and nightly maximum aircraft noise levels exceeding 50dB six or more times, a significantly increased risk was observed. In general, risks of HHD were considerably higher than the risks of heart failure. Regarding the high prevalence of traffic noise from various sources, even low risk increases for frequent diseases are relevant for the population as a whole. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Prenatal and perinatal risk factors and testicular cancer: a hospital-based case-control study.

PubMed

Sonke, Gabe S; Chang, Shine; Strom, Sara S; Sweeney, Anne M; Annegers, J Fred; Sigurdson, Alice J

2007-01-01

Some evidence exists to support the hypothesis that elevated levels of circulating maternal estrogens during early pregnancy may increase risk of testicular germ cell cancer. However, the results from studies evaluating maternal factors have been mixed. We evaluated maternal factors, particularly those associated with excess estrogen levels, as risk factors for testicular cancer. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas of 144 testicular cancer patients diagnosed between 1990 and 1996 and 86 friend controls matched to cases on age, race, and state of residence. Risk factor data about the mother, the son, and the pregnancy were obtained from the mothers by telephone interviews and from the sons by self-administered questionnaires. Extreme nausea during the first trimester of pregnancy was associated with an elevated risk of testicular cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0-3.9]. Adjustment for potential confounders slightly lowered this risk (OR = 1.8; 95% CI = 0.9-3.8). Risks were modestly increased for other factors that are proxy measures for maternal estrogens, including preterm delivery (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 0.4-12.9), birth weight <3000 g (OR = 2.4: 95% CI = 0.7-8.1), and birth weight >4000 g (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 0.9-3.2), albeit nonsignificantly so. Our finding that severe nausea was associated with increased testicular cancer risk adds evidence to support the in utero estrogen exposure hypothesis because nausea early in pregnancy is related to rising levels of circulating estrogens. For other factors, which are less direct measures of maternal estrogens, the modest associations found indicate a suggestive pattern in support of the excess estrogen hypothesis.

Pharmaceuticals in tap water: human health risk assessment and proposed monitoring framework in China.

PubMed

Leung, Ho Wing; Jin, Ling; Wei, Si; Tsui, Mirabelle Mei Po; Zhou, Bingsheng; Jiao, Liping; Cheung, Pak Chuen; Chun, Yiu Kan; Murphy, Margaret Burkhardt; Lam, Paul Kwan Sing

2013-07-01

Pharmaceuticals are known to contaminate tap water worldwide, but the relevant human health risks have not been assessed in China. We monitored 32 pharmaceuticals in Chinese tap water and evaluated the life-long human health risks of exposure in order to provide information for future prioritization and risk management. We analyzed samples (n = 113) from 13 cities and compared detected concentrations with existing or newly-derived safety levels for assessing risk quotients (RQs) at different life stages, excluding the prenatal stage. We detected 17 pharmaceuticals in 89% of samples, with most detectable concentrations (92%) at < 50 ng/L. Caffeine (median-maximum, nanograms per liter: 24.4-564), metronidazole (1.8-19.3), salicylic acid (16.6-41.2), clofibric acid (1.2-3.3), carbamazepine (1.3-6.7), and dimetridazole (6.9-14.7) were found in ≥ 20% of samples. Cities within the Yangtze River region and Guangzhou were regarded as contamination hot spots because of elevated levels and frequent positive detections. Of the 17 pharmaceuticals detected, 13 showed very low risk levels, but 4 (i.e., dimetridazole, thiamphenicol, sulfamethazine, and clarithromycin) were found to have at least one life-stage RQ ≥ 0.01, especially for the infant and child life stages, and should be considered of high priority for management. We propose an indicator-based monitoring framework for providing information for source identification, water treatment effectiveness, and water safety management in China. Chinese tap water is an additional route of human exposure to pharmaceuticals, particularly for dimetridazole, although the risk to human health is low based on current toxicity data. Pharmaceutical detection and application of the proposed monitoring framework can be used for water source protection and risk management in China and elsewhere.

Theory-Based Cartographic Risk Model Development and Application for Home Fire Safety.

PubMed

Furmanek, Stephen; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol

There is a gap in the use of predictive risk models to identify areas at risk for home fires and burn injury. The purpose of this study was to describe the creation, validation, and application of such a model using a sample from an intervention study with parents of newborns in Jefferson County, KY, as an example. Performed was a literature search to identify risk factors for home fires and burn injury in the target population. Obtained from the American Community Survey at the census tract level and synthesized to create a predictive cartographic risk model was risk factor data. Model validation was performed through correlation, regression, and Moran's I with fire incidence data from open records. Independent samples t-tests were used to examine the model in relation to geocoded participant addresses. Participant risk level for fire rate was determined and proximity to fire station service areas and hospitals. The model showed high and severe risk clustering in the northwest section of the county. Strongly correlated with fire rate was modeled risk; the best predictive model for fire risk contained home value (low), race (black), and non high school graduates. Applying the model to the intervention sample, the majority of participants were at lower risk and mostly within service areas closest to a fire department and hospital. Cartographic risk models were useful in identifying areas at risk and analyzing participant risk level. The methods outlined in this study are generalizable to other public health issues.

Community cardiovascular disease risk from cross-sectional general practice clinical data: a spatial analysis.

PubMed

Bagheri, Nasser; Gilmour, Bridget; McRae, Ian; Konings, Paul; Dawda, Paresh; Del Fante, Peter; van Weel, Chris

2015-02-26

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be a leading cause of illness and death among adults worldwide. The objective of this study was to calculate a CVD risk score from general practice (GP) clinical records and assess spatial variations of CVD risk in communities. We used GP clinical data for 4,740 men and women aged 30 to 74 years with no history of CVD. A 10-year absolute CVD risk score was calculated based on the Framingham risk equation. The individual risk scores were aggregated within each Statistical Area Level One (SA1) to predict the level of CVD risk in that area. Finally, the pattern of CVD risk was visualized to highlight communities with high and low risk of CVD. The overall 10-year risk of CVD in our sample population was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.3%-14.9%). Of the 4,740 patients in our study, 26.7% were at high risk, 29.8% were at moderate risk, and 43.5% were at low risk for CVD over 10 years. The proportion of patients at high risk for CVD was significantly higher in the communities of low socioeconomic status. This study illustrates methods to further explore prevalence, location, and correlates of CVD to identify communities of high levels of unmet need for cardiovascular care and to enable geographic targeting of effective interventions for enhancing early and timely detection and management of CVD in those communities.

Improving the work position of worker based on manual material handling in rice mill industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, Rahmaniyah Dwi; Susmartini, Susy; Kinanthi, Ade Putri

2017-11-01

In traditional industries still using manual material handling to weight lifting. Worker at the rice mill, especially in rice filtering activity has wrong ergonomic posture to enforce the body bends and carried loads too heavy cause of injury for lower back and waist. The work attitude is unnatural posture. This study aimed to determine the severity of the workload, the level of risk posed to the rice taking activities and suggested as an improvement to it. Identify the operator complaints used Nordic Body Map method. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) method is used to provide an assessment of the working posture of the operator. Assessment of the working posture on rice filtering process shows that REBA score is 12 with an explanation very high level of risk and action level is 4 which means the action needs to be repaired immediately. Biomechanics calculation shows result 6713.21 N, the result of the calculation of the biomechanics of worker in the rice filtering activities indicates that the activities would pose a risk or injury. Therefore, improvement in rice filtering activity by designing a tool for lowering the risk level worker. The design tools are illustrated with 2D modeling resulted in the level of risk that is working REBA score became 3 which shows a low risk level. Biomechanics calculation after designed of tools show the result is 6282.86 N. The results means the activities carried out are still in safe condition and does not pose a risk or injury.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk level in a vulnerable population.

PubMed

Kim, Chun-Ja; Park, JeeWon; Kang, Se-Won

2015-04-01

This study examined the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and the risk level of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a vulnerable population of 407 subjects in Korea. This descriptive study was a part of the Tailed Health Visiting Service Program, using baseline data from public health centres in Suwon, Korea. The definition of metabolic syndrome was based on the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria, and risk of CVD was estimated according to the Framingham study equation. This study demonstrated that the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 40.8% higher and the risk of CVD was significantly 3.1 times higher among those with metabolic syndrome than among those without it. Of those with metabolic syndrome, 50.6% overall and 81.1% of men had a high risk for CVD. These findings suggest a need to screen and prevent the risk of CVD in vulnerable populations with metabolic syndrome. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Ecological risk assessment: influence of texture on background concentration of microelements in soils of Russia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beketskaya, Olga

2010-05-01

In Russia quality standards of contaminated substances values in environment consist of ecological and sanitary rate-setting. The sanitary risk assessment base on potential risk that contaminants pose to protect human beings. The main purpose of the ecological risk assessment is to protect ecosystem. To determine negative influence on living organisms in the sanitary risk assessment in Russia we use MPC. This value of contaminants show how substances affected on different part of environment, biological activity and soil processes. The ecological risk assessment based on comparison compounds concentration with background concentration for definite territories. Taking into account high interval of microelements value in soils, we suggest using statistic method for determination of concentration levels of chemical elements concentration in soils of Russia. This method is based on determination middle levels of elements content in natural condition. The top limit of middle chemical elements concentration in soils is value, which exceed middle regional background level in three times standard deviation. The top limit of natural concentration excess we can explain as anthropogenic impact. At first we study changing in the middle content value of microelements in soils of geographic regions in European part of Russia on the basis of cartographical analysis. Cartographical analysis showed that the soil of mountainous and mountain surrounding regions is enriched with microelements. On the plain territory of European part of Russia for most of microelements was noticed general direction of increasing their concentration in soils from north to south, also in the same direction soil clay content rise for majority of soils. For all other territories a clear connection has been noticed between the distribution of sand sediment. By our own investigation and data from scientific literature data base was created. This data base consist of following soil properties: texture, organic matter content, concentration of microelements and pH value. On the basis of this data base massive of data for Forest-steppe and Steppe regions was create, which was divided by texture. For all data statistics method was done and was calculated maximum level natural microelements content for soils with different texture (?+3*δ). As a result of our statistic calculation we got middle and the top limit of background concentration of microelements in sandy and clay soils (conditional border - sandy loam) of two regions. We showed, that for all territory of European part of Russia and for Forest-steppe and Steppe regions separately middle content and maximum level natural microelements concentrations (?+3*σ) are higher in clay soils, rather then in sandy soils. Data characterizing soils, in different regions, of similar texture differs less than the data collected for sandy and clay soils of the same region. After all this calculation we can notice, that data of middle and top limit of background microelements concentration in soils, based on statistic method, can be used in the aim of ecological risk assessment. Using offered method allow to calculate top limit of background concentration for sandy and clay soils for large-scale geographic regions, exceeding which will be evidence of anthropogenic contamination of soil.

Analysis of dengue fever risk using geostatistics model in bone regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amran, Stang, Mallongi, Anwar

2017-03-01

This research aim is to analysis of dengue fever risk based on Geostatistics model in Bone Regency. Risk levels of dengue fever are denoted by parameter of Binomial distribution. Effect of temperature, rainfalls, elevation, and larvae abundance are investigated through Geostatistics model. Bayesian hierarchical method is used in estimation process. Using dengue fever data in eleven locations this research shows that temperature and rainfall have significant effect of dengue fever risk in Bone regency.

Performance of new thresholds of the Glasgow Blatchford score in managing patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Laursen, Stig B; Dalton, Harry R; Murray, Iain A; Michell, Nick; Johnston, Matt R; Schultz, Michael; Hansen, Jane M; Schaffalitzky de Muckadell, Ove B; Blatchford, Oliver; Stanley, Adrian J

2015-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is a common cause of hospital admission. The Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) is an accurate determinant of patients' risk for hospital-based intervention or death. Patients with a GBS of 0 are at low risk for poor outcome and could be managed as outpatients. Some investigators therefore have proposed extending the definition of low-risk patients by using a higher GBS cut-off value, possibly with an age adjustment. We compared 3 thresholds of the GBS and 2 age-adjusted modifications to identify the optimal cut-off value or modification. We performed an observational study of 2305 consecutive patients presenting with UGIH at 4 centers (Scotland, England, Denmark, and New Zealand). The performance of each threshold and modification was evaluated based on sensitivity and specificity analyses, the proportion of low-risk patients identified, and outcomes of patients classified as low risk. There were differences in age (P = .0001), need for intervention (P < .0001), mortality (P < .015), and GBS (P = .0001) among sites. All systems identified low-risk patients with high levels of sensitivity (>97%). The GBS at cut-off values of ≤1 and ≤2, and both modifications, identified low-risk patients with higher levels of specificity (40%-49%) than the GBS with a cut-off value of 0 (22% specificity; P < .001). The GBS at a cut-off value of ≤2 had the highest specificity, but 3% of patients classified as low-risk patients had adverse outcomes. All GBS cut-off values, and score modifications, had low levels of specificity when tested in New Zealand (2.5%-11%). A GBS cut-off value of ≤1 and both GBS modifications identify almost twice as many low-risk patients with UGIH as a GBS at a cut-off value of 0. Implementing a protocol for outpatient management, based on one of these scores, could reduce hospital admissions by 15% to 20%. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Level of Sedentary Behavior and Its Associated Factors among Saudi Women Working in Office-Based Jobs in Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Albawardi, Nada M.; Jradi, Hoda; Almalki, Abdulla A.; Al-Hazzaa, Hazzaa M.

2017-01-01

Research in Saudi Arabia has revealed a shocking level of insufficiently physically active adults, particularly women. The risk of sedentary behavior will likely increase as the number of women with office-based jobs increases. The aim of this study is to determine the level of sedentary behavior, and its associated factors, among Saudi women working office-based jobs in the city of Riyadh. A cross-sectional study of 420 Saudi female employees at 8 office-based worksites were measured to determine body mass index and were given a self-administered survey to evaluate their level of physical activity and sedentary behavior. Median sitting time on work days was 690 min per day (interquartile range, IQR 541–870), with nearly half accumulated during work hours, and 575 min per day (IQR 360–780) on non-work days. Predictors of work day sitting time were level of education, number of children, and working in the private sector. Number of children, whether they were single, and whether they lived in a small home were found to predict non-work day sitting time. This study identifies Saudi women in office-based jobs as a high-risk group for sedentary behavior. There is a need to promote physical activity at worksites and reduce prolonged sitting. PMID:28629200

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2016-02-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real-time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

Difference in Risk Behaviors and STD Prevalence Between Street-Based and Establishment-Based FSWs in Guangdong Province, China

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Lin, Peng; Fu, Xiaobing; Deng, Zhongming; Liu, Yongying; Huang, Guohua; Li, Jie; Tan, Yihe

2012-01-01

The major mode of HIV/AIDS transmission in China is now heterosexual activities, but risk for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) may differ among different strata of female sex workers (FSWs). Respondent-driven sampling was used to recruit 320 FSWs in Guangdong Province, China. The respondents were interviewed using a structured questionnaire, and tested for HIV, syphilis, gonorrhea, and Chlamydia. The street-based FSWs had lower education levels, a higher proportion supporting their families, charged less for their services, and had engaged in commercial sex for a longer period of time than establishment-based FSWs. The proportion consistently using condoms with clients and with regular non-paying partners was also lower. The prevalence of syphilis, gonorrhea, and Chlamydia was higher among street-based sex workers. Being a street-based sex worker, having regular non-paying sex partners, and having non-regular non-paying partners were independent risk factors for inconsistent condom. Street-based FSWs had more risk behaviors than establishment-based FSWs, and should therefore be specifically targeted for HIV as well as STD intervention programs. PMID:22228068

Spatial distribution and ecological risk assessment of heavy metal on surface sediment in west part of Java Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effendi, Hefni; Wardiatno, Yusli; Kawaroe, Mujizat; Mursalin; Fauzia Lestari, Dea

2017-01-01

The surface sediments were identified from west part of Java Sea to evaluate spatial distribution and ecological risk potential of heavy metals (Hg, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni). The samples were taken from surface sediment (<0.5 m) in 26 m up to 80 m water depth with Eikman grab. The average material composition on sediment samples were clay (9.86%), sand (8.57%) and mud sand (81.57%). The analysis showed that Pb (11.2%), Cd (49.7%), and Ni (59.5%) exceeded of Probably Effect Level (PEL). Base on ecological risk analysis, {{Cd }}≤ft( {E_r^i:300.64} \\right) and {{Cr }}≤ft( {E_r^i:0.02} \\right) were categorized to high risk and low risk criteria. The ecological risk potential sequences of this study were Cd>Hg>Pb>Ni>Cu>As>Zn>Cr. Furthermore, the result of multivariate statistical analysis shows that correlation among heavy metals (As/Ni, Cd/Ni, and Cu/Zn) and heavy metals with Risk Index (Cd/Ri and Ni/Ri) had positive correlation in significance level p<0.05. Total variance of analysis factor was 80.04% and developed into 3 factors (eigenvalues >1). On the cluster analysis, Cd, Ni, Pb were identified as fairly high contaminations level (cluster 1), Hg as moderate contamination level (cluster 2) and Cu, Zn, Cr with lower contamination level (cluster 3).

Condom use self-efficacy and HIV risk practices among men who use the internet to find male partners for unprotected sex.

PubMed

Klein, Hugh

2014-05-01

This research examines the levels of condom use self-efficacy in a population of men who have sex with men who are at great risk for contracting/transmitting HIV. It focuses on the relationship between condom use self-efficacy and risk involvement, and examines the factors associated with greater/lower levels of condom use self-efficacy. The data come from a national sample of men, randomly chosen, who used any of 16 websites specifically to identify other men with whom they could engage in unprotected sex. Data were collected between January 2008 and May 2009 from 332 men, via telephone interviews. Multivariate analyses and structural equation modeling were used to test a conceptual model based on syndemics theory. Overall levels of condom use self-efficacy were fairly high, and self-efficacy was related inversely to involvement in HIV risk practices. Six factors were found to be indicative of levels of condom use self-efficacy: the number of drug problems experienced, sexual role identity as a "bottom," not caring about the HIV serostatus of potential sex partners, experiencing childhood maltreatment, having confidence in HIV-related information provided in other men's online profiles, and level of HIV knowledge. Condom use self-efficacy plays an integral role in HIV risk practices among high-risk men who have sex with men. This is true despite the fact that, overall, condom use self-efficacy levels were fairly high in this population.

From which level of competition in clubs are adolescents at greater risk of injury compared with outside-of-clubs athletes? A school-based study.

PubMed

Luiggi, Maxime; Rindler, Victoria; Griffet, Jean

2018-02-01

Sport practice is a key factor in a person's physical and mental health but, for adolescent athletes, some injuries lead to health problems in the long term. The literature provides multiple factors for understanding injury but does not give information about injury risk related to each level of play in a large sample of multisport athletes. This study investigates this relationship in 14- to 19-year-old adolescents. The survey on adolescents and health was conducted in classrooms of France, from February to March 2015. Only sports players were included in the analyses (n = 986). The levels of play were divided into five categories: outside of a club/no competition, club player/no competition, club player/local level, club player/state level and club player/national and higher level. A three-step binary logistic regression analysis with age, sex, type of sport, weekly hours of exposure, and level of play was used. During the past year, 48.1% of the adolescents were injured. Age and sex were not risk factors. The injury risk associated with the increases in level of play is higher than those related to the hours of exposure per week or the type of sport. In clubs, adolescents who do not compete or play at a local level showed no evidence of greater injury risk whereas state-level and national- and higher-level athletes were at greater risk than outside-of-club players (OR = 2.18, 95%CI = 1.13-3.94 and OR = 3.89, 95%CI = 2.07-7.31, respectively). Adolescents who play sports in clubs are clearly more exposed to injury than those who play outside of a club, mainly from state level. Age and sex are not related to injury. Future epidemiological studies should control adolescents' level of play. Special attention should be accorded to the injury risk of athletes playing at these levels of competition.

Surveying perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Jessica Ka Yi; Eidsvig, Unni

2016-04-01

Enhanced precipitation due to climate change leads to increase in both frequency and intensity of landslides in Norway. A proactive approach to risk management is therefore required to significantly reduce the losses associated with landslides. Opinions and perceptions from practitioners on the performance of landslide risk management can provide insights on areas for improvement in the landslide risk management strategies in Norway. The Risk Management Index (RMI), proposed by Cardona et al. (2004), is a well-established method to measure perceptions of disaster management of selected actors holistically. The RMI is measured based on opinion questionnaires to technical staff, decision-makers, and stakeholders involved in all stages of risk reduction strategies. It is a composite index that considers a wide variety of strategies to manage risks, including structural and non-structural measures, acceptance strategies, disaster management, and risk transfer. The RMI method was modified to be implemented in landslide hazards and to fit with Norwegian conditions. An opinion survey was conducted in autumn 2015 to measure perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway. Perceptions were surveyed for two time periods: 2015 and 2050, and are based on national, county, and municipality levels. Based on the survey results, performance of landslide risk management at any administrative levels in Norway is perceived to improve from `significant' in 2015 to `significant' to `outstanding' in 2050. Knowledge and technology, climate, risk perceptions, and anthropogenic activities are mostly considered by respondents for their 2050 perceptions. Several aspects of landslide risk management in Norway can be improved. For example, landslide hazard evaluation and mapping should be prioritised in Norway. Upgrading, retrofitting, and reconstruction of assets may also be included in the landslide risk reduction strategies. In addition, there should be more focus on inter-institutional organisation as well as allocation and use of financial resources for dealing with landslides at local levels. Although the survey was considered too difficult by some of the respondents, it can be regarded as a starting point to develop a common terminology/language in landslide risk management in Norway that allows mutual understandings among people with different backgrounds. The approach of surveying perceptions of landslide risk management can also be expanded to the public to enable comparisons of perceptions between experts and the public. Furthermore, the methodology can be applied to other types of natural hazards in Norway, such as floods. This project is supported by Klima2050 (http://www.klima2050.no/).

Risk ranking of LANL nuclear material storage containers for repackaging prioritization.

PubMed

Smith, Paul H; Jordan, Hans; Hoffman, Jenifer A; Eller, P Gary; Balkey, Simon

2007-05-01

Safe handling and storage of nuclear material at U.S. Department of Energy facilities relies on the use of robust containers to prevent container breaches and subsequent worker contamination and uptake. The U.S. Department of Energy has no uniform requirements for packaging and storage of nuclear materials other than those declared excess and packaged to DOE-STD-3013-2000. This report describes a methodology for prioritizing a large inventory of nuclear material containers so that the highest risk containers are repackaged first. The methodology utilizes expert judgment to assign respirable fractions and reactivity factors to accountable levels of nuclear material at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A relative risk factor is assigned to each nuclear material container based on a calculated dose to a worker due to a failed container barrier and a calculated probability of container failure based on material reactivity and container age. This risk-based methodology is being applied at LANL to repackage the highest risk materials first and, thus, accelerate the reduction of risk to nuclear material handlers.

Factors Associated With Engagement With a Web-Based Lifestyle Intervention Following Provision of Coronary Heart Disease Risk: Mixed Methods Study.

PubMed

Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Winther, Laura R; Shefer, Guy S; Silarova, Barbora; Payne, Rupert A; Griffin, Simon J

2017-10-16

Web-based interventions provide the opportunity to combine the tailored approach of face-to-face interventions with the scalability and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions. This potential is often limited by low engagement. A number of studies have described the characteristics of individuals who engage more in Web-based interventions but few have explored the reasons for these variations. We aimed to explore individual-level factors associated with different degrees of engagement with a Web-based behavior change intervention following provision of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk information, and the barriers and facilitators to engagement. This study involved the secondary analysis of data from the Information and Risk Modification Trial, a randomized controlled trial of a Web-based lifestyle intervention alone, or alongside information on estimated CHD risk. The intervention consisted of three interactive sessions, each lasting up to 60 minutes, delivered at monthly intervals. Participants were characterized as high engagers if they completed all three sessions. Thematic analysis of qualitative data from interviews with 37 participants was combined with quantitative data on usage of the Web-based intervention using a mixed-methods matrix, and data on the views of the intervention itself were analyzed across all participants. Thirteen participants were characterized as low engagers and 24 as high engagers. There was no difference in age (P=.75), gender (P=.95), or level of risk (P=.65) between the groups. Low engagement was more often associated with: (1) reporting a negative emotional reaction in response to the risk score (P=.029), (2) perceiving that the intervention did not provide any new lifestyle information (P=.011), and (3) being less likely to have reported feeling an obligation to complete the intervention as part of the study (P=.019). The mixed-methods matrix suggested that there was also an association between low engagement and less success with previous behavior change attempts, but the statistical evidence for this association was weak (P=.16). No associations were seen between engagement and barriers or facilitators to health behavior change, or comments about the design of the intervention itself. The most commonly cited barriers related to issues with access to the intervention itself: either difficulties remembering the link to the site or passwords, a perceived lack of flexibility within the website, or lack of time. Facilitators included the nonjudgmental presentation of lifestyle information, the use of simple language, and the personalized nature of the intervention. This study shows that the level of engagement with a Web-based intervention following provision of CHD risk information is not influenced by the level of risk but by the individual's response to the risk information, their past experiences of behavior change, the extent to which they consider the lifestyle information helpful, and whether they felt obliged to complete the intervention as part of a research study. A number of facilitators and barriers to Web-based interventions were also identified, which should inform future interventions. ©Juliet A Usher-Smith, Laura R Winther, Guy S Shefer, Barbora Silarova, Rupert A Payne, Simon J Griffin. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 16.10.2017.

Investigation of the feasibility of elective irradiation to neck level Ib using intensity-modulated radiotherapy for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Fan; Cheng, Yi-Kan; Li, Wen-Fei; Guo, Rui; Chen, Lei; Sun, Ying; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Liu, Xu; Liu, Li-Zhi; Lin, Ai-Hua; Tang, Ling-Long; Ma, Jun

2015-10-15

To assess the feasibility of elective neck irradiation to level Ib in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) using intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). We retrospectively analyzed 1438 patients with newly-diagnosed, non-metastatic and biopsy-proven NPC treated with IMRT. Greatest dimension of level IIa LNs (DLN-IIa) ≥ 20 mm and/or level IIa LNs with extracapsular spread (ES), oropharynx involvement and positive bilateral cervical lymph nodes (CLNs) were independently significantly associated with metastasis to level Ib LN at diagnosis. No recurrence at level Ib was observed in the 904 patients without these characteristics (median follow-up, 38.7 months; range, 1.3-57.8 months), these patients were classified as low risk. Level Ib irradiation was not an independent risk factor for locoregional failure-free survival, distant failure-free survival, failure-free survival or overall survival in low risk patients. The frequency of grade ≥ 2 subjective xerostomia at 12 months after radiotherapy was not significantly different between low risk patients who received level Ib-sparing, unilateral level Ib-covering or bilateral level Ib-covering IMRT. Level Ib-sparing IMRT should be safe and feasible for patients without a DLN-IIa ≥ 20 mm and/or level IIa LNs with ES, positive bilateral CLNs or oropharynx involvement at diagnosis. Further investigations based on specific criteria for dose constraints for the submandibular glands are warranted to confirm the benefit of elective level Ib irradiation.

Projected Flood Risks in China based on CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying

2016-04-01

Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with data on population, GDP, arable land, and terrain elevation, the spatial distributions of the flood risk levels are calculated and analyzed under RCP8.5 for the baseline period (1986-2005), the near term future period (2016-2035), the middle term future period (2046-2065), and the long term future period (2080-2099). (1) Areas with higher flood hazard risk levels in the future are concentrated in southeastern China, and the areas with the risk level III continue to expand. The major changes in flood hazard risks will occur in the middle and long term future. (2) In future, the areas of high vulnerability to flood hazards will be located in China's eastern region. In the middle and late 21st century, the extent of the high vulnerability area will expand eastward and its intensity will gradually increase. The highest vulnerability values are found in the provinces of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and in parts of the Pearl River Delta. Furthermore, the major cities in northeast China, as well as Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang are highly vulnerable. (3) The regions with high flood risk levels will be located in eastern China, in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and stretching northward to Beijing and Tianjin. High-risk flood areas are also occurring in major cities in Northeast China, in some parts of Shaanxi and Shanxi, and in some coastal areas in Southeast China. (4) Compared to the baseline period, the high flood risks will increase on a regional level towards the end of the 21st century, although the areas of flood hazards show little variation. In this paper, the projected future flood risks for different periods were analyzed under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. By comparing the results with the simulations under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, both scenarios show no differences in the spatial distribution, but in the intensity of flood hazard risks, which are weaker than for the RCP8.5 scenarios. By using the simulations from climate model ensembles to project future flood risks, uncertainty exists for various factors, such as the coarse resolution of global climate models, different approaches to flood assessments, the selection of the weighting coefficients, as well as the used greenhouse gas emission scheme, and the estimations of future population, GDP, and arable land. Therefore, further analysis is needed to reduce the uncertainties of future flood risks.

Improving risk assessments for manufactured gas plant soils by measuring PAH availability.

PubMed

Stroo, Hans F; Nakles, David V; Kreitinger, Joseph P; Loehr, Raymond C; Hawthorne, Steven B; Luthy, Richard G; Holman, Hoi-Ying; LaPierre, Adrienne

2005-07-01

Remediation of soils at oil-gas manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites is driven primarily by the human health risks posed by the carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), that are associated with lampblack residues. Although PAHs on lampblack are tightly sorbed, risk assessments do not account for this reduced availability. A multi-investigator study of 7 oil-gas MGP site soil samples demonstrated that the dermal and ingestion absorption factors are far lower than current default assumptions used in risk assessments. Using these sample-specific absorption factors in standard risk assessment equations increased risk-based cleanup levels by a factor of 72 on average (with a range from 23 to 142 times the default level). The rapidly released fraction of the BaP in each sample, as measured by supercritical fluid extraction, was closely correlated (r2 = 0.96) to these calculated cleanup levels. The weight of evidence developed during this research indicates that the risks posed by PAHs on lampblack are far less than assumed when using default absorption factors and that a tiered evaluation protocol employing chemical analyses, chemical release data, and in vitro bioassays can be used to establish more realistic site-specific criteria.

Geographic Variations of Colorectal and Breast Cancer Late-Stage Diagnosis and the Effects of Neighborhood-Level Factors.

PubMed

Lin, Yan; Wimberly, Michael C

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the geographic variations of late-stage diagnosis in colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer as well as to investigate the effects of 3 neighborhood-level factors-socioeconomic deprivation, urban/rural residence, and spatial accessibility to health care-on the late-stage risks. This study used population-based South Dakota cancer registry data from 2001 to 2012. A total of 4,878 CRC cases and 6,418 breast cancer cases were included in the analyses. Two-level logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk of late-stage CRC and breast cancer. For CRC, there was a small geographic variation across census tracts in late-stage diagnosis, and residing in isolated small rural areas was significantly associated with late-stage risk. However, this association became nonsignificant after adjusting for census-tract level socioeconomic deprivation. Socioeconomic deprivation was an independent predictor of CRC late-stage risk, and it explained the elevated risk among American Indians. No relationship was found between spatial accessibility and CRC late-stage risk. For breast cancer, no geographic variation in the late-stage diagnosis was observed across census tracts, and none of the 3 neighborhood-level factors was significantly associated with late-stage risk. Results suggested that socioeconomic deprivation, rather than spatial accessibility, contributed to CRC late-stage risks in South Dakota as a rural state. CRC intervention programs could be developed to target isolated small rural areas, socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, as well as American Indians residing in these areas. © 2016 National Rural Health Association.

Racial Differences in Perceptions of Air Pollution Health Risk: Does Environmental Exposure Matter?

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Jayajit; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Maldonado, Alejandra

2017-01-01

This article extends environmental risk perception research by exploring how potential health risk from exposure to industrial and vehicular air pollutants, as well as other contextual and socio-demographic factors, influence racial/ethnic differences in air pollution health risk perception. Our study site is the Greater Houston metropolitan area, Texas, USA—a racially/ethnically diverse area facing high levels of exposure to pollutants from both industrial and transportation sources. We integrate primary household-level survey data with estimates of excess cancer risk from ambient exposure to industrial and on-road mobile source emissions of air toxics obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Statistical analysis is based on multivariate generalized estimation equation models which account for geographic clustering of surveyed households. Our results reveal significantly higher risk perceptions for non-Hispanic Black residents and those exposed to greater cancer risk from industrial pollutants, and also indicate that gender influences the relationship between race/ethnicity and air pollution risk perception. These findings highlight the need to incorporate measures of environmental health risk exposure in future analysis of social disparities in risk perception. PMID:28125059

Disposal methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedlander, Alan

1991-01-01

A number of disposal options for space nuclear reactors and the associated risks, mostly in the long term, based on probabilities of Earth reentry are discussed. The results are based on a five year study that was conducted between 1978 and 1983 on the space disposal of high level nuclear waste. The study provided assessment of disposal options, stability of disposal or storage orbits, and assessment of the long term risks of Earth reentry of the nuclear waste.

Risk-based containment and air monitoring criteria for work with dispersible radioactive materials.

PubMed

Veluri, Venkateswara Rao; Justus, Alan L

2013-04-01

This paper presents readily understood, technically defensible, risk-based containment and air monitoring criteria, which are developed from fundamental physical principles. The key for the development of each criterion was the use of a calculational de minimis level, in this case chosen to be 100 mrem (or 40 DAC-h). Examples are provided that demonstrate the effective use of each criterion. Comparison to other often used criteria is provided.

A School-Based Dental Program Evaluation: Comparison to the Massachusetts Statewide Survey.

PubMed

Culler, Corinna S; Kotelchuck, Milton; Declercq, Eugene; Kuhlthau, Karen; Jones, Kari; Yoder, Karen M

2017-10-01

School-based dental programs target high-risk communities and reduce barriers to obtaining dental services by delivering care to students in their schools. We describe the evaluation of a school-based dental program operating in Chelsea, a city north of Boston, with a low-income and largely minority population, by comparing participants' oral health to a Massachusetts oral health assessment. Standardized dental screenings were conducted for students in kindergarten, third, and sixth grades. Outcomes were compared in bivariate analysis, stratified by grade and income levels. A greater percentage of Chelsea students had untreated decay and severe treatment need than students statewide. Yet, fewer Chelsea third graders had severe treatment need, and more had dental sealants. There was no significant difference in the percentage of Chelsea students having severe treatment need or dental sealants by income level. Students participating in our program do not have lower decay levels than students statewide. However, they do have lower levels of severe treatment need, likely due to treatment referrals. Our results confirm that school-based prevention programs can lead to increased prevalence of dental sealants among high-risk populations. Results provide support for the establishment of full-service school-based programs in similar communities. © 2017, American School Health Association.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

[Study on building index system of risk assessment of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine based on AHP-fuzzy neural network].

PubMed

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming; Fu, Yingkun

2011-10-01

Currently massive researches have been launched about the safety, efficiency and economy of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine (CPM) proprietary Chinese medicine, but it was lack of a comprehensive interpretation. Establishing the risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model of CPM is the key to solve drug safety problems and protect people's health. The clinical risk factors of CPM exist similarities with the Western medicine, can draw lessons from foreign experience, but also have itself multi-factor multivariate multi-level complex features. Drug safety risk assessment for the uncertainty and complexity, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to empower the index weights, AHP-based fuzzy neural network to build post-marketing CPM risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model and constantly improving the application of traditional Chinese medicine characteristic is accord with the road and feasible beneficial exploration.

Stress Fractures of the Foot and Ankle in Athletes

PubMed Central

Mayer, Stephanie W.; Joyner, Patrick W.; Almekinders, Louis C.; Parekh, Selene G.

2014-01-01

Context: Stress fractures of the foot and ankle are a common problem encountered by athletes of all levels and ages. These injuries can be difficult to diagnose and may be initially evaluated by all levels of medical personnel. Clinical suspicion should be raised with certain history and physical examination findings. Evidence Acquisition: Scientific and review articles were searched through PubMed (1930-2012) with search terms including stress fractures and 1 of the following: foot ankle, medial malleolus, lateral malleolus, calcaneus, talus, metatarsal, cuboid, cuneiform, sesamoid, or athlete. Study Design: Clinical review. Level of Evidence: Level 5. Results: Stress fractures of the foot and ankle can be divided into low and high risk based upon their propensity to heal without complication. A wide variety of nonoperative strategies are employed based on the duration of symptoms, type of fracture, and patient factors, such as activity type, desire to return to sport, and compliance. Operative management has proven superior in several high-risk types of stress fractures. Evidence on pharmacotherapy and physiologic therapy such as bone stimulators is evolving. Conclusion: A high index of suspicion for stress fractures is appropriate in many high-risk groups of athletes with lower extremity pain. Proper and timely work-up and treatment is successful in returning these athletes to sport in many cases. Low-risk stress fracture generally requires only activity modification while high-risk stress fracture necessitates more aggressive intervention. The specific treatment of these injuries varies with the location of the stress fracture and the goals of the patient. PMID:25364480

Effects of Anti-Tobacco Advertisements Based on Risk-Taking Tendencies: Realistic Fear vs. Vulgar Humor.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Moon J.; Ferguson, Mary Ann

2002-01-01

Explores how college students with different risk-taking tendencies responded to different emotional appeals in anti-tobacco advertisements. Finds that rebellious participants who watched realistic fear advertisements reported higher levels of interest than those who watched the vulgar humor advertisements. Explains that impulsive participants…

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Toward the Tailoring of Sexual Health Education Messages for Young Women: A Focus on Tourist Experiences.

PubMed

Berdychevsky, Liza

2017-01-01

Perceived anonymity and decreased influence of sexual double standards in tourism provide female travelers with opportunities for sexual experimentation and risk taking. The purpose of this study was (a) to identify the clusters of risk takers among young women based on their perceptions of and motivations for sexual risk taking in tourism and (b) to profile the clusters with respect to the psychological, sexual, demographic, and tourist characteristics. The data were collected through an online survey of 853 women (age in years: M = 23.5, SD = 6.67). Five clusters of sexual risk takers emerged based on their factor-analyzed risk perceptions and motivations. These clusters were interpreted as (a) diversely motivated broad risk perceivers; (b) fun-seeking broad risk perceivers; (c) diversely motivated physical risk perceivers; (d) anonymity- and empowerment-seeking risk disregarders; and (e) unmotivated broad risk perceivers. Women in these clusters differed in their intentions to engage in sexual risk taking in tourism, sensation-seeking propensities, perceptions of tourist characteristics, levels of sexual experience, and demographic backgrounds. Results suggest tailoring sexual health promotion messages based on cluster affiliation, leveraging cluster-specific risk perceptions, motivations, and personal characteristics. This study provides recommendations for individually tailored, context-specific, age-appropriate, and gender-sensitive sexual health education programs.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Whose Values? Whose Risk? Exploring Decision Making About Trial of Labor After Cesarean.

PubMed

Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B

2018-06-01

In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

PubMed Central

Fu, Xiao; Gu, Chong-Shi; Su, Huai-Zhi; Qin, Xiang-Nan

2018-01-01

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level. PMID:29710824