Clinical engineering and risk management in healthcare technological process using architecture framework.

PubMed

Signori, Marcos R; Garcia, Renato

2010-01-01

This paper presents a model that aids the Clinical Engineering to deal with Risk Management in the Healthcare Technological Process. The healthcare technological setting is complex and supported by three basics entities: infrastructure (IS), healthcare technology (HT), and human resource (HR). Was used an Enterprise Architecture - MODAF (Ministry of Defence Architecture Framework) - to model this process for risk management. Thus, was created a new model to contribute to the risk management in the HT process, through the Clinical Engineering viewpoint. This architecture model can support and improve the decision making process of the Clinical Engineering to the Risk Management in the Healthcare Technological process.

Identifying research advancements in supply chain risk management for Agri-food Industries: Literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Septiani, W.; Astuti, P.

2017-12-01

Agri-food supply chain has different characteristics related to the raw materials it uses. Food supply chain has a high risk of damage, thus drawing a lot of attention from researchers in supply chain management. This research aimed to investigate the development of supply chain risk management research on agri-food industries. These reviews were arranged in steps systematically, ranging from searching related to the review of SCRM paper, reviewing the general framework of SCRM and the framework of agri-food SCRM. Selection of literature review papers in the period 2005-2017, and obtained 45 papers. The results of the identification research were illustrated in a supply chain risk management framework model. This provided insight toward future research directions and needs.

Medical-device risk management and public safety: using cost-benefit as a measurement of effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Allen A.

1994-12-01

Public safety can be enhanced through the development of a comprehensive medical device risk management. This can be accomplished through case studies using a framework that incorporates cost-benefit analysis in the evaluation of risk management attributes. This paper presents a framework for evaluating the risk management system for regulatory Class III medical devices. The framework consists of the following sixteen attributes of a comprehensive medical device risk management system: fault/failure analysis, premarket testing/clinical trials, post-approval studies, manufacturer sponsored hospital studies, product labeling, establishment inspections, problem reporting program, mandatory hospital reporting, medical literature surveillance, device/patient registries, device performance monitoring, returned product analysis, autopsy program, emergency treatment funds/interim compensation, product liability, and alternative compensation mechanisms. Review of performance histories for several medical devices can reveal the value of information for many attributes, and also the inter-dependencies of the attributes in generating risk information flow. Such an information flow network is presented as a starting point for enhancing medical device risk management by focusing on attributes with high net benefit values and potential to spur information dissemination.

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

PubMed

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk decisions are being applied. However, with increasing experience in the application of the approaches, we are evolving to a common understanding of the essential elements and principles required for successful risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk management will continue to be a balancing act of competing priorities and needs. Flexibility and good judgement are ultimately the key to successfully making appropriate risk decisions.

Managing risk in healthcare: understanding your safety culture using the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF).

PubMed

Parker, Dianne

2009-03-01

To provide sufficient information about the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF) to allow healthcare professionals to assess its potential usefulness. The assessment of safety culture is an important aspect of risk management, and one in which there is increasing interest among healthcare organizations. Manchester Patient Safety Framework offers a theory-based framework for assessing safety culture, designed specifically for use in the NHS. The framework covers multiple dimensions of safety culture, and five levels of safety culture development. This allows the generation of a profile of an organization's safety culture in terms of areas of relative strength and challenge, which can be used to identify focus issues for change and improvement. Manchester Patient Safety Framework provides a useful method for engaging healthcare professionals in assessing and improving the safety culture in their organization, as part of a programme of risk management.

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

PubMed

Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

2010-08-01

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

A conceptual framework for coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire to improve fireshed planning and risk mitigation

Treesearch

Jeff Kline; Alan A. Ager; Paige Fischer

2015-01-01

The need for improved methods for managing wildfire risk is becoming apparent as uncharacteristically large wildfires in the western US and elsewhere exceed government capacities for their control and suppression. We propose a coupled biophysical-social framework to managing wildfire risk that relies on wildfire simulation to identify spatial patterns of wildfire risk...

Short Duration Emergency Incidents Managed as Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nixon, Thomas J.

Emergency incidents have historically been managed by experience and some directional principles usually found in SOPs/SOGs or other pre-incident planning documents. The use of experience has the risk of bias influencing the decisions being made in truly life or death situations. Responders of disasters, long duration emergency incidents, are often equipped with a framework adapted to the project management lifecycle to assure the project priorities are adequately addressed. The disaster framework provides for savings from risk, loss, waste. This research is demonstrating the ability and reasoning to develop a framework to address short duration emergency incidents and expand the events that can be managed as a project. The research of the literature found that a framework can be applied to the project management lifecycle and the priorities of a short duration emergency incident can be managed as a project. The limitations of not having the ability to conduct empirical testing and the risks of not developing a formal implementation plan are discussed. Short duration emergency incidents are found to be capable of being managed as projects and will benefit from the effectiveness of project management methodologies.

Integrated risk framework for onsite wastewater treatment systems.

PubMed

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

[Radiotherapy quality and risk manager role optimization in 2017].

PubMed

Ponsard, N; Brusadin, G; Schick, U

2017-10-01

The quality and risk manager works in a regulated framework, which delimits its missions. Nevertheless, the variety among the centers generates heterogeneous situations regarding the positioning and the range of action. A well-defined framework is needed in order to ratify the legitimacy and the recognition of quality and risk manager's main function. Copyright © 2017 Société française de radiothérapie oncologique (SFRO). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary

PubMed Central

Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

2016-01-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the ”new” agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand. PMID:27983666

Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary.

PubMed

Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

2016-12-14

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the "new" agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter II, G.W.

2003-06-18

The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management.more » It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.« less

A critical analysis of the South African Disaster Management Act and Policy Framework.

PubMed

van Niekerk, Dewald

2014-10-01

The promulgation of the South African Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Policy Framework of 2005 placed South Africa at the international forefront by integrating disaster risk reduction into all spheres of government through a decentralised approach. Yet, good policy and legislation do not necessarily translate into good practice. This paper provides a critical analysis of the Act and Policy Framework. Using qualitative research methods, it analyses the attitudes and perceptions of senior public officials on all levels of government, the private sector and academia. The study finds that one of the weakest aspects of the Act and Framework is the absence of clear guidance to local municipalities. The placement of the disaster risk management function on all tiers of government remains problematic, funding is inadequate and overall knowledge and capacities for disaster risk reduction are insufficient. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

An expanded conceptual framework for solution-focused management of chemical pollution in European waters.

PubMed

Munthe, John; Brorström-Lundén, Eva; Rahmberg, Magnus; Posthuma, Leo; Altenburger, Rolf; Brack, Werner; Bunke, Dirk; Engelen, Guy; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Gils, Jos; Herráez, David López; Rydberg, Tomas; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; van Wezel, Annemarie

2017-01-01

This paper describes a conceptual framework for solutions-focused management of chemical contaminants built on novel and systematic approaches for identifying, quantifying and reducing risks of these substances. The conceptual framework was developed in interaction with stakeholders representing relevant authorities and organisations responsible for managing environmental quality of water bodies. Stakeholder needs were compiled via a survey and dialogue. The content of the conceptual framework was thereafter developed with inputs from relevant scientific disciplines. The conceptual framework consists of four access points: Chemicals, Environment, Abatement and Society, representing different aspects and approaches to engaging in the issue of chemical contamination of surface waters. It widens the scope for assessment and management of chemicals in comparison to a traditional (mostly) perchemical risk assessment approaches by including abatement- and societal approaches as optional solutions. The solution-focused approach implies an identification of abatement- and policy options upfront in the risk assessment process. The conceptual framework was designed for use in current and future chemical pollution assessments for the aquatic environment, including the specific challenges encountered in prioritising individual chemicals and mixtures, and is applicable for the development of approaches for safe chemical management in a broader sense. The four access points of the conceptual framework are interlinked by four key topics representing the main scientific challenges that need to be addressed, i.e.: identifying and prioritising hazardous chemicals at different scales; selecting relevant and efficient abatement options; providing regulatory support for chemicals management; predicting and prioritising future chemical risks. The conceptual framework aligns current challenges in the safe production and use of chemicals. The current state of knowledge and implementation of these challenges is described. The use of the conceptual framework, and addressing the challenges, is intended to support: (1) forwarding sustainable use of chemicals, (2) identification of pollutants of priority concern for cost-effective management, (3) the selection of optimal abatement options and (4) the development and use of optimised legal and policy instruments.

A Framework for Drought Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apurv, T.; Cai, X.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most expensive natural disasters as it affects many sectors of the economy. The threat posed by droughts is expected to further increase due to increasing water demands fuelled by increasing population and also due to climate change in many regions. Management of the increasing drought risk requires shift from traditional crisis management approaches to long term strategic planning for reduction of drought risk. This study proposes a framework for management of long term drought risk. The framework uses the system based approach proposed by Tsakiris et al. (2013), in which a watershed is considered as a system and different water sources in the watershed (like groundwater, reservoirs, streams etc.) are considered as subsystems associated with certain water requirements of different sectors. Droughts are defined separately for each subsystem considering water availability and requirement. The percentile based drought indicator framework proposed by Steinemann et al. (2015) is used for defining drought for each subsystem, allowing the selection of thresholds, variables of interest, and time scale which are most relevant for stakeholders dependent on a particular subsystem. Future drought risk under different drought management strategies are assessed using hydrologic models that model both hydrologic and human components of a watershed. The robustness of a management strategy is assessed by simulating system response across a wide range of stochastically generated future climate scenarios. The framework is useful for operational drought management as it allows direct management of drought risks with consideration of different water sources and water users. Steinemann, A., Iacobellis, S.F., Cayan, D.R., (2015) "Developing and evaluating drought indicators for decision-making" J. Hydrometeor. 16 (4), 1793-1803 Tsakiris, G, Nalbantis, I, Vangelis, H, Verbeiren, B, Huysmans, M, Tychon, B, Jacquemin, I, Canters, F, Vanderhaegen, S, Engelen, G, Poelmans, L, De Becker, P, Batelaan, O, (2013) "A system-based paradigm of drought analysis for operational management" Water Resour Manag 27(15):5281-5297

Effective Management Techniques in Tertiary Administration: A Risk Management Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, R. P.; Booth, P.

1984-01-01

A management strategy that is potentially more fruitful for the nonprofit sector than traditional management toward a primary objective is a risk management approach to organizational effectiveness. The organization's effectiveness, its survival, can be analyzed by categorizing the risks facing it and assessing its performance in managing these…

12 CFR Appendix to Part 1236 - Prudential Management and Operations Standards

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... risk exposures, including market, credit, and counterparty risk, so that it can understand the possible... market risk management framework, including policies and entity-wide risk limits at least annually... measures whenever market risk limit violations or breaches occur. Responsibilities of Senior Management 5...

The development of mountain risk governance: challenges for application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, S.; Stötter, J.

2015-01-01

The complexity the management of mountain risks in the Alps has considerably increased since its institutionalisation in the late nineteenth century. In the history of approaches to dealing with mountain risks four successive paradigms can be distinguished on the basis of key indicators such as guiding principles, characteristic elements and typical instruments: "hazard protection", "hazard management", "risk management", and "risk governance". In this contribution, special attention is paid to the development of hazard zone planning and the growing importance of communication and participation over the course of this transformation. At present, the risk management paradigm has reached maturity. In the Alps, risk governance frameworks are not yet applied to risks from natural hazards. Based on a historical analysis, the suitability and applicability of general risk governance frameworks in the context of mountain risks are discussed. Necessary adaptations (e.g., in administration, educational, and legal structures) are proposed for the upcoming transformation towards mountain risk governance.

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

A framework for understanding risk perception, explored from the perspective of the water practitioner.

PubMed

Dobbie, Meredith Frances; Brown, Rebekah Ruth

2014-02-01

Sustainable urban water systems are likely to be hybrids of centralized and decentralized infrastructure, managed as an integrated system in water-sensitive cities. The technology for many of these systems is available. However, social and institutional barriers, which can be understood as deeply embedded risk perceptions, have impeded their implementation. Risk perceptions within the water sector are often unrecognized or unacknowledged, despite their role in risk management generally in informing value judgments and specifically in ranking risks to achieve management objectives. There has been very little examination of the role of these risk perceptions in advancing more sustainable water supply management through the adoption of alternative sources. To address this gap, this article presents a framework that can be used as a tool for understanding risk perceptions. The framework is built on the relational theory of risk and presents the range of human phenomena that might influence the perception of an "object at risk" in relation to a "risk object." It has been synthesized from a critical review of theoretical, conceptual, and empirical studies of perception broadly and risk perception specifically, and interpreted in relation to water practitioners. For a water practitioner, the risk object might be an alternative water system, a component, a process, or a technology, and the object at risk could be public or environmental health, profitability, or professional reputation. This framework has two important functions: to allow practitioners to understand their own and others' risk perceptions, which might differ, and to inform further empirical research. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2013-01-01

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

PubMed

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

76 FR 16587 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-24

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for... other things, would implement DCO Core Principle D (Risk Management) and would establish a related... framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and promote market integrity within the financial system...

An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

2015-02-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Management in Australian Science Education: A Model for Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forlin, Peter

1995-01-01

Provides a framework that incorporates the diverse elements of risk management in science education into a systematic process and is adaptable to changing circumstances. Appendix contains risk management checklist for management, laboratory and storage, extreme biological and chemical hazards, protective equipment, waste disposal, electrical…

78 FR 50259 - Derivatives Clearing Organizations and International Standards

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-16

... Principle D (Risk Management) and regulation 39.13; Core Principle G (Default Rules and Procedures) and...: Risk Management Core Principle D requires a DCO to ensure that it possesses the ability to manage the...: Principle 2 (Governance); Principle 3 (Framework for the comprehensive management of risks); Principle 4...

Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

PubMed

Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

2013-09-01

The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drinking water quality management: a holistic approach.

PubMed

Rizak, S; Cunliffe, D; Sinclair, M; Vulcano, R; Howard, J; Hrudey, S; Callan, P

2003-01-01

A growing list of water contaminants has led to some water suppliers relying primarily on compliance monitoring as a mechanism for managing drinking water quality. While such monitoring is a necessary part of drinking water quality management, experiences with waterborne disease threats and outbreaks have shown that compliance monitoring for numerical limits is not, in itself, sufficient to guarantee the safety and quality of drinking water supplies. To address these issues, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) has developed a Framework for Management of Drinking Water Quality (the Framework) for incorporation in the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines, the primary reference on drinking water quality in Australia. The Framework was developed specifically for drinking water supplies and provides a comprehensive and preventive risk management approach from catchment to consumer. It includes holistic guidance on a range of issues considered good practice for system management. The Framework addresses four key areas: Commitment to Drinking Water Quality Management, System Analysis and System Management, Supporting Requirements, and Review. The Framework represents a significantly enhanced approach to the management and regulation of drinking water quality and offers a flexible and proactive means of optimising drinking water quality and protecting public health. Rather than the primary reliance on compliance monitoring, the Framework emphasises prevention, the importance of risk assessment, maintaining the integrity of water supply systems and application of multiple barriers to assure protection of public health. Development of the Framework was undertaken in collaboration with the water industry, regulators and other stakeholder, and will promote a common and unified approach to drinking water quality management throughout Australia. The Framework has attracted international interest.

Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

RSKM 2004 COSO Enterprise RSKM Framework 2006 ISO/IEC 16085 Risk Management Process 2008 ISO/IEC 12207 Software Lifecycle Processes 2009 ISO/IEC...1 Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management John Walz VP Technical and Conferences Activities, IEEE Computer Society Vice-Chair Planning...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software

Risk-based requirements management framework with applications to assurance cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Eyster, C.

The current regulatory approach for assuring device safety primarily focuses on compliance with prescriptive safety regulations and relevant safety standards. This approach, however, does not always lead to a safe system design even though safety regulations and standards have been met. In the medical device industry, several high profile recalls involving infusion pumps have prompted the regulatory agency to reconsider how device safety should be managed, reviewed and approved. An assurance case has been cited as a promising tool to address this growing concern. Assurance cases have been used in safety-critical systems for some time. Most assurance cases, if not all, in literature today are developed in an ad hoc fashion, independent from risk management and requirement development. An assurance case is a resource-intensive endeavor that requires additional effort and documentation from equipment manufacturers. Without a well-organized requirements infrastructure in place, such “ additional effort” can be substantial, to the point where the cost of adoption outweighs the benefit of adoption. In this paper, the authors present a Risk-Based Requirements and Assurance Management (RBRAM) methodology. The RBRAM is an elaborate framework that combines Risk-Based Requirements Management (RBRM) with assurance case methods. Such an integrated framework can help manufacturers leverage an existing risk management to present a comprehensive assurance case with minimal additional effort while providing a supplementary means to reexamine the integrity of the system design in terms of the mission objective. Although the example used is from the medical industry, the authors believe that the RBRAM methodology underlines the fundamental principle of risk management, and offers a simple, yet effective framework applicable to aerospace industry, perhaps, to any industry.

A risk assessment methodology for critical transportation infrastructure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

Infrastructure protection typifies a problem of risk assessment and management in a large-scale system. This study offers a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risks. It includes the following major considerations: (1...

Utilising Enterprise Risk Management Strategies to Develop a Governance and Operations Framework for a New Research Complex: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clyde-Smith, Jodi

2014-01-01

Enterprise risk management strategies were used to develop a regulatory and operational framework for a new multi-partner Research Institute that will house up to 900 staff from four different institutions in Queensland, Australia. The Institute will operate in a business environment while functioning as a research resource for the higher…

Spatially based management of agricultural phosphorus pollution from diffuse sources: the SCIMAP risk based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reaney, S. M.; Heathwaite, L.; Lane, S. N.; Buckley, C.

2007-12-01

Pollution of rivers from agricultural phosphorus is recognised as a significant global problem and is a major management challenge as it involves processes that are small in magnitude, distributed over large areas, operating at fine spatial scales and associated with certain land use types when they are well connected to the receiving waters. Whilst some of these processes have been addressed in terms of water quality forecasting models and field measurements, we lack effective tools to prioritise where action should be taken to remediate the diffuse pollution problem. From a management perspective, the required information is on 'what to do where' rather than absolute values. This change in focus opens up the problem to be considered in a probabilistic / relative framework rather than concentrating on absolute values. The SCIMAP risk management framework is based on the critical source area concept whereby a risk and a connection are required to generate a problem. Treatments of both surface and subsurface hydrological connectivity have been developed. The approach is based on the philosophy that for a point to be considered connected there needs to be a continuous flow path to the receiving water. This information is calculated by simulating the possible flow paths from the source cell to the receiving water and recording the required catchment wetness to allow flow along that route. This algorithm gives information on the ease at which each point in the landscape can export risk along surface and subsurface pathways to the receiving waters. To understand the annual dynamics of the locational diffuse P risk, a temporal risk framework has been developed. This risk framework accounts for land management activies within the agricultural calendar. These events include the application of fertiliser, the P additions from livestock and the offtake of P in crops. Changes to these risks can be made to investigate management options. The SCIMAP risk mapping framework has been applied to 12 catchments in England as part of the DEFRA / Environment Agency's Catchment Sensitive Farming programme. Result from these catchments will be presented.

Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

Risk management: FIFA's approach for protecting the health of football players

PubMed Central

Fuller, Colin W; Junge, Astrid; Dvorak, Jiri

2012-01-01

Background Sport and exercise have long-term health benefits, but there is also a risk that participants will sustain injuries and/or ill health from these activities. For this reason, international sports governing bodies have a responsibility to identify the risks that exist within their sport and to provide guidance to participants and other stakeholders on how these risks can be controlled within acceptable levels. Purpose To demonstrate how Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), as football's governing body, uses a risk management framework to identify, quantify, mitigate and communicate the risks of injury and ill health in football for men, women and children in all environments. Method All the research papers published by FIFA's Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) during the period 1994 to 2011 were reviewed and categorised according to an established sport-related risk management framework. Conclusions F-MARC investigated and mitigated 17 areas of risk to footballers' health in a coherent and consistent approach through the process of risk management. PMID:22143999

Risk management: FIFA's approach for protecting the health of football players.

PubMed

Fuller, Colin W; Junge, Astrid; Dvorak, Jiri

2012-01-01

Sport and exercise have long-term health benefits, but there is also a risk that participants will sustain injuries and/or ill health from these activities. For this reason, international sports governing bodies have a responsibility to identify the risks that exist within their sport and to provide guidance to participants and other stakeholders on how these risks can be controlled within acceptable levels. To demonstrate how Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), as football's governing body, uses a risk management framework to identify, quantify, mitigate and communicate the risks of injury and ill health in football for men, women and children in all environments. All the research papers published by FIFA's Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) during the period 1994 to 2011 were reviewed and categorised according to an established sport-related risk management framework. F-MARC investigated and mitigated 17 areas of risk to footballers' health in a coherent and consistent approach through the process of risk management.

Framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food industry.

PubMed

Baker, Robert C; Ford, Randall M; Helander, Mary E; Marecki, Janusz; Natarajan, Ramesh; Ray, Bonnie

2014-12-01

We propose a methodological framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food processing industry. Mycotoxin contamination is a well-known threat to public health that has economic significance for the food processing industry; it is imperative to address mycotoxin risks holistically, at all points in the procurement, processing, and distribution pipeline, by tracking the relevant data, adopting best practices, and providing suitable adaptive controls. The proposed framework includes (i) an information and data repository, (ii) a collaborative infrastructure with analysis and simulation tools, (iii) standardized testing and acceptance sampling procedures, and (iv) processes that link the risk assessments and testing results to the sourcing, production, and product release steps. The implementation of suitable acceptance sampling protocols for mycotoxin testing is considered in some detail.

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A decision framework for managing risk to airports from terrorist attack.

PubMed

Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Cha, Eun J; Ellingwood, Bruce R

2015-02-01

This article presents an asset-level security risk management framework to assist stakeholders of critical assets with allocating limited budgets for enhancing their safety and security against terrorist attack. The proposed framework models the security system of an asset, considers various threat scenarios, and models the sequential decision framework of attackers during the attack. Its novel contributions are the introduction of the notion of partial neutralization of attackers by defenders, estimation of total loss from successful, partially successful, and unsuccessful actions of attackers at various stages of an attack, and inclusion of the effects of these losses on the choices made by terrorists at various stages of the attack. The application of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example dealing with security risk management of a U.S. commercial airport, in which a set of plausible threat scenarios and risk mitigation options are considered. It is found that a combination of providing blast-resistant cargo containers and a video surveillance system on the airport perimeter fence is the best option based on minimum expected life-cycle cost considering a 10-year service period. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Design of Knowledge Management System for Diabetic Complication Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiarni, Cut

2017-01-01

This paper examines how to develop a Model for Knowledge Management System (KMS) for diabetes complication diseases. People with diabetes have a higher risk of developing a series of serious health problems. Each patient has different condition that could lead to different disease and health problem. But, with the right information, patient could have early detection so the health risk could be minimized and avoided. Hence, the objective of this research is to propose a conceptual framework that integrates social network model, Knowledge Management activities, and content based reasoning (CBR) for designing such a diabetes health and complication disease KMS. The framework indicates that the critical knowledge management activities are in the process to find similar case and the index table for algorithm to fit the framework for the social media. With this framework, KMS developers can work with healthcare provider to easily identify the suitable IT associated with the CBR process when developing a diabetes KMS.

Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

2016-12-15

As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Process to Product: Your Risk Process at Work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundrot, Craig E.; Fogarty, Jenifer; Charles, John; Buquo, Lynn; Sibonga, Jean; Alexander, David; Horn, Wayne G.; Edwards, J. Michelle

2010-01-01

The Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) at the NASA/Johnson Space Center work together to address and manage the human health and performance risks associated with human space flight. This includes all human system requirements before, during, and after space flight, providing for research, and managing the risk of adverse long-term health outcomes for the crew. We previously described the framework and processes developed for identifying and managing these human system risks. The focus of this panel is to demonstrate how the implementation of the framework and associated processes has provided guidance in the management and communication of human system risks. The risks of early onset osteoporosis, CO2 exposure, and intracranial hypertension in particular have all benefitted from the processes developed for human system risk management. Moreover, we are continuing to develop capabilities, particularly in the area of information architecture, which will also be described. We are working to create a system whereby all risks and associated actions can be tracked and related to one another electronically. Such a system will enhance the management and communication capabilities for the human system risks, thereby increasing the benefit to researchers and flight surgeons.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

Translating reference doses into allergen management practice: challenges for stakeholders.

PubMed

Crevel, René W R; Baumert, Joseph L; Luccioli, Stefano; Baka, Athanasia; Hattersley, Sue; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B; Ronsmans, Stefan; Timmermans, Frans; Ward, Rachel; Chung, Yong-joo

2014-05-01

Risk assessment describes the impact of a particular hazard as a function of dose and exposure. It forms the foundation of risk management and contributes to the overall decision-making process, but is not its endpoint. This paper outlines a risk analysis framework to underpin decision-making in the area of allergen cross-contact. Specifically, it identifies challenges relevant to each component of the risk analysis: risk assessment (data gaps and output interpretation); risk management (clear and realistic objectives); and risk communication (clear articulation of risk and benefit). Translation of the outputs from risk assessment models into risk management measures must be informed by a clear understanding of the model outputs and their limitations. This will lead to feasible and achievable risk management objectives, grounded in a level of risk accepted by the different stakeholders, thereby avoiding potential unintended detrimental consequences. Clear, consistent and trustworthy communications actively involving all stakeholders underpin these objectives. The conclusions, integrating the perspectives of different stakeholders, offer a vision where clear, science-based benchmarks form the basis of allergen management and labelling, cutting through the current confusion and uncertainty. Finally, the paper recognises that the proposed framework must be adaptable to new and emerging evidence. Copyright © 2014 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quality Attribute Techniques Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiam, Yin Kia; Zhu, Liming; Staples, Mark

The quality of software is achieved during its development. Development teams use various techniques to investigate, evaluate and control potential quality problems in their systems. These “Quality Attribute Techniques” target specific product qualities such as safety or security. This paper proposes a framework to capture important characteristics of these techniques. The framework is intended to support process tailoring, by facilitating the selection of techniques for inclusion into process models that target specific product qualities. We use risk management as a theory to accommodate techniques for many product qualities and lifecycle phases. Safety techniques have motivated the framework, and safety and performance techniques have been used to evaluate the framework. The evaluation demonstrates the ability of quality risk management to cover the development lifecycle and to accommodate two different product qualities. We identify advantages and limitations of the framework, and discuss future research on the framework.

ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Paul W.

2008-01-01

ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

Barriers to implementation of risk management for federal wildland fire management agencies in the United States

Treesearch

Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Alan A. Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

In this presentation we review progress towards the implementation of a risk-based management framework for U.S. Federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical...

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Review article: A systematic review of emergency department incident classification frameworks.

PubMed

Murray, Matthew; McCarthy, Sally

2018-06-01

As in any part of the hospital system, safety incidents can occur in the ED. These incidents arguably have a distinct character, as the ED involves unscheduled flows of urgent patients who require disparate services. To aid understanding of safety issues and support risk management of the ED, a comparison of published ED specific incident classification frameworks was performed. A review of emergency medicine, health management and general medical publications, using Ovid SP to interrogate Medline (1976-2016) was undertaken to identify any type of taxonomy or classification-like framework for ED related incidents. These frameworks were then analysed and compared. The review identified 17 publications containing an incident classification framework. Comparison of factors and themes making up the classification constituent elements revealed some commonality, but no overall consistency, nor evolution towards an ideal framework. Inconsistency arises from differences in the evidential basis and design methodology of classifications, with design itself being an inherently subjective process. It was not possible to identify an 'ideal' incident classification framework for ED risk management, and there is significant variation in the selection of categories used by frameworks. The variation in classification could risk an unbalanced emphasis in findings through application of a particular framework. Design of an ED specific, ideal incident classification framework should be informed by a much wider range of theories of how organisations and systems work, in addition to clinical and human factors. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2013-01-01

Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and...

Managing risks in the fisheries supply chain using House of Risk Framework (HOR) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. L. T.; Tran, T. T.; Huynh, T. P.; Ho, T. K. D.; Le, A. T.; Do, T. K. H.

2018-04-01

One of the sectors which contributes importantly to the development of Vietnam economy is fishery industry. However, during recent year, it has been witnessed many difficulties on managing the performance of the fishery supply chain operations as a whole. In this paper, a framework for supply chain risk management (SCRM) is proposed. Initially, all the activities are mapped by using Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model. Next, the risk ranking is analyzed in House of Risk. Furthermore, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is used to identify inter-relationships among supply chain risks and to visualize the risks according to their levels. For illustration, the model has been tested in several case studies with fishery companies in Can Tho, Mekong Delta. This study identifies 22 risk events and 20 risk agents through the supply chain. Also, the risk priority could be used for further House of Risk with proactive actions in future studies.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

Incorporating Risk and Indicators into a Water Security Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, D. M.; Bakker, K.; Simpson, M. W.; Norman, E.; Dunn, G.

2010-12-01

The concept of water security has received growing attention over the past five years in academic debates and policy circles, particularly with respect to cumulative impacts assessment and watershed management. We propose an integrative definition for water security; one that considers both stressors and impacts (or effects) on hydrological systems. We present a water security assessment framework that considers status and risk indicators for both water quality and quantity as measures of impacts. This assessment framework also integrates the social sciences with natural science, engineering, and public health, providing opportunities to address environmental challenges, including the relationship between water and land use dynamics, the integration of aquatic ecosystem and human health concerns, and the alignment of governance with water management imperatives. We argue that this framework has the potential to advance water science, the contributing disciplines, and water policy and management.

Towards a conceptual framework of OSH risk management in smart working environments based on smart PPE, ambient intelligence and the Internet of Things technologies.

PubMed

Podgórski, Daniel; Majchrzycka, Katarzyna; Dąbrowska, Anna; Gralewicz, Grzegorz; Okrasa, Małgorzata

2017-03-01

Recent developments in domains of ambient intelligence (AmI), Internet of Things, cyber-physical systems (CPS), ubiquitous/pervasive computing, etc., have led to numerous attempts to apply ICT solutions in the occupational safety and health (OSH) area. A literature review reveals a wide range of examples of smart materials, smart personal protective equipment and other AmI applications that have been developed to improve workers' safety and health. Because the use of these solutions modifies work methods, increases complexity of production processes and introduces high dynamism into thus created smart working environments (SWE), a new conceptual framework for dynamic OSH management in SWE is called for. A proposed framework is based on a new paradigm of OSH risk management consisting of real-time risk assessment and the capacity to monitor the risk level of each worker individually. A rationale for context-based reasoning in SWE and a respective model of the SWE-dedicated CPS are also proposed.

Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podger, G. M.; Cuddy, S. M.; Peeters, L.; Smith, T.; Bark, R. H.; Black, D. C.; Wallbrink, P.

2014-09-01

Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources - maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009) have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation) scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

2018-01-01

Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

Research on Risk Management and Power Supplying Enterprise Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jianfei; Wang, Yige

2017-09-01

This paper derived from the background that electric power enterprises strengthen their risk management under requirements of the government. For the power industry, we explained the risk management theory, analysed current macro environment as well as basic situation, then classified and interpreted the main risks. In a case study on a power bureau, we established a risk management system based on deep understanding about the characteristics of its organization system and risk management function. Then, we focused on risks in operation as well as incorrupt government construction to give a more effective framework of the risk management system. Finally, we came up with the problems and specific countermeasures in risk management, which provided a reference for other electric power enterprises.

75 FR 82317 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-30

... collection unless it displays a currently valid Office of Management and Budget (OMB) control number. Each of... CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 325 RIN 3064-AD58 Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework--Basel II; Establishment of a Risk-Based Capital Floor AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency...

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Creating a framework for the prioritization of biosecurity risks to the New Zealand dairy industry.

PubMed

Muellner, P; Hodges, D; Ahlstrom, C; Newman, M; Davidson, R; Pfeiffer, D; Marshall, J; Morley, C

2018-03-25

The New Zealand dairy sector relies on robust biosecurity measures to control and mitigate a wide range of threats to the industry. To optimize the prioritization of organisms and manage the risk they pose to the sector in a transparent and credible way, the Dairy Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework (D-BRiEF) was developed. This comprehensive framework was specifically designed for decision support, using a standardized approach to address the full spectrum of biosecurity threats to the sector, including exotic and endemic animal disease organisms, pest plants and insects. D-BRiEF is underpinned by three main processes, namely (i) hazard identification; (ii) multicriteria risk assessment; and (iii) communication for risk management. Expert knowledge and empirical data, including associated uncertainty, are harnessed in a standardized format. Results feed into a probability-impact model that was developed in close collaboration with dairy sector economists to provide overall comparative 10-year quantitative economic impact estimates for each assessed risk organism. A description of the overarching framework, which applies to diverse organism groups, is presented with detailed methodology on both endemic and exotic animal disease risk organisms. Examples of visual outputs are included, although actual ranking results are not reported due to industry confidentiality. D-BRiEF can provide a decision advantage to DairyNZ biosecurity risk managers and sector stakeholders by creating a transparent process that can be interrogated and updated at multiple levels to fully understand the layers of risk posed by different organisms. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Best Practices for Audit and Financial Advisory Committees Within the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-06

oversight of an organization’s annual financial statement audit, risk management plan, internal control framework, and compliance with external...is generally responsible for providing independent oversight of an organization’s annual financial statement audit, risk management plan, internal...achieving financial management objectives and identify areas of risk or concern. 40 11.2. Systems of Internal Controls

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Dave E. Calkin

2013-01-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails...

Managing Corporate Risk through Better Knowledge Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neef, Dale

2005-01-01

Purpose: To explain how progressive companies are using a combination of knowledge and risk management (KRM) systems and techniques in order to help them to prevent, or respond most effectively to, ethical or reputation-damaging incidents. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explains KRM, develops a corporate integrity framework, and then…

A Proactive and Top-Down Approach to Managing Risk at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

Our ultimate goal is to manage risk in a holistic and coherent fashion across the Agency: a) The RIDM process is intended to risk-inform direction-setting decisions. c) The CRM process is intended to manage risk associated with the implementation of baseline performance requirements. Currently we are working on: a) Enhancements to the CRM process. b) Better integration of the RIDM and CRM processes. c) Better integration of institutional risk considerations into RM framework.

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

PubMed

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

CSLAA and FAA'S Rules: Incorporating a 'Risk Management Framework' to Minimise Human Space Flight Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaddha, S.

2012-01-01

th This year marks the 50 anniversary of a landmark victory for humankind in its endeavour of entering and exploring the final frontier. During these years of space activity, we have witnessed a number of cumulative successes. One of which is the emergence of the commercial human space flight, or "space tourism", market. Commercial companies have the aim of travelling people into space safely and affordably. This paper shall consider the U.S. regulatory framework governing the space tourism market. It scrutinises the adequacy of the Commercial Space Launch and Amendment Act of 2004 (CSLAA), as bolstered by the FAA's requirements, to protect launching passengers to an acceptable standard of safety from the inherent risks associated with human space flights. It is argued that the legislative regime embeds a three-limb "risk management framework" as an appropriate response to address the concern over the safety of public space travel.

A Roundtable on a National Framework for Natural Hazard Risk Reduction and Management: Developing a Research AgendaSummary Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shapiro, Carl D.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; Wachter, Susan M.

2007-01-01

Introduction This report summarizes discussion at the Roundtable on a National Framework for Risk Reduction and Management held on November 15, 2006, at the Cosmos Club in Washington, D.C. The Roundtable was cosponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Association of American Geographers (AAG), and The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Comments made by speakers not affiliated with the USGS do not necessarily reflect the positions of the USGS.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

The EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations

PubMed Central

O'Sullivan, Tracey L.; Kuziemsky, Craig E.; Corneil, Wayne; Lemyre, Louise; Franco, Zeno

2014-01-01

Introduction: Resilience has been described in many ways and is inherently complex. In essence, it refers to the capacity to face and do well when adversity is encountered. There is a need for empirical research on community level initiatives designed to enhance resilience for high-risk groups as part of an upstream approach to disaster management. In this study, we address this issue, presenting the EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations. Methods: The framework presented in this paper is empirically-based, using qualitative data from focus groups conducted as part of an asset-mapping intervention in five communities in Canada, and builds on extant literature in the fields of disaster and emergency management, health promotion, and community development. Results: Adaptive capacity is placed at the centre of the framework as a focal point, surrounded by four strategic areas for intervention (awareness/communication, asset/resource management, upstream-oriented leadership, and connectedness/engagement). Three drivers of adaptive capacity (empowerment, innovation, and collaboration) cross-cut the strategic areas and represent levers for action which can influence systems, people and institutions through expansion of asset literacy. Each component of the framework is embedded within the complexity and culture of a community. Discussion: We present recommendations for how this framework can be used to guide the design of future resilience-oriented initiatives with particular emphasis on inclusive engagement across a range of functional capabilities. PMID:25642373

The EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Tracey L; Kuziemsky, Craig E; Corneil, Wayne; Lemyre, Louise; Franco, Zeno

2014-10-02

Resilience has been described in many ways and is inherently complex. In essence, it refers to the capacity to face and do well when adversity is encountered. There is a need for empirical research on community level initiatives designed to enhance resilience for high-risk groups as part of an upstream approach to disaster management. In this study, we address this issue, presenting the EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations. The framework presented in this paper is empirically-based, using qualitative data from focus groups conducted as part of an asset-mapping intervention in five communities in Canada, and builds on extant literature in the fields of disaster and emergency management, health promotion, and community development. Adaptive capacity is placed at the centre of the framework as a focal point, surrounded by four strategic areas for intervention (awareness/communication, asset/resource management, upstream-oriented leadership, and connectedness/engagement). Three drivers of adaptive capacity (empowerment, innovation, and collaboration) cross-cut the strategic areas and represent levers for action which can influence systems, people and institutions through expansion of asset literacy. Each component of the framework is embedded within the complexity and culture of a community. We present recommendations for how this framework can be used to guide the design of future resilience-oriented initiatives with particular emphasis on inclusive engagement across a range of functional capabilities.

Towards the assessment and management of contaminated dredged materials.

PubMed

Agius, Suzanne J; Porebski, Linda

2008-04-01

Environment Canada's Disposal at Sea Programme hosted the Contaminated Dredged Material Management Decisions Workshop in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, on 28-30 November 2006. The workshop brought together over 50 sediment assessment and management experts from academic, industrial, and regulatory backgrounds and charged them with drafting a potential framework to assess contaminated dredged materials and compare the risks of various disposal alternatives. This article summarizes the recommendations made during the workshop concerning the development of sediment assessment tools, the interpretation of these tools, and the essential attributes of a comparative risk assessment process. The major outcomes of the workshop include a strong recommendation to develop a national dredging or sediment management strategy, a potential decision-making framework for the assessment of dredged materials and comparative risk assessment of disposal options, and the expansion of minimum sediment characterization requirements for nonroutine disposal permit applications.

Green Is the New Black: The Need for a New Currency That Values Water Resources in Rapidly Developing Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Webster, K. L.; Kreutzweiser, D. P.; Beall, F.

2014-12-01

Canada's boreal forest supports many aquatic ecosystem services (AES) due to the intimate linkage between aquatic systems and their surrounding terrestrial watersheds in forested landscapes. There is an increasing risk to AES because natural development activities (forest management, mining, energy) have resulted in disruptions that deteriorate aquatic ecosystems at local (10s of km2) to regional (100s of km2) scales. These activities are intensifying and expanding, placing at risk the healthy aquatic ecosystems that provide AES and may threaten the continued development of the energy, forest, and mining sectors. Remarkably, we know little about the consequences of these activities on AES. The idea that AES should be explicitly integrated into modern natural resource management regulations is gaining broad acceptance. A major need is the ability to measure cumulative effects and determine thresholds (the points where aquatic ecosystems and their services cannot recover to a desired state within a reasonable time frame) in these cumulative effects. However, there is no single conceptual approach to assessing cumulative effects that is widely accepted by both scientists and managers. We present an integrated science-policy framework that enables the integration of AES into forest management risk assessment and prevention/mitigation strategies. We use this framework to explore the risk of further deterioration of AES by (1) setting risk criteria; (2) using emerging technologies to map process-based indicators representing causes and consequences of risk events to the deterioration of AES; (3) assessing existing prevention and mitigation policies in place to avoid risk events; and (4) identifying priorities for policy change needed to reduce risk event. Ultimately, the success of this framework requires that higher value be placed on AES, and in turn to improve the science and management of the boreal forest.

A Model for an Information Security Risk Management (ISRM) Framework for Saudi Arabian Organisations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alshareef, Naser

2016-01-01

Countries in the Gulf represent thriving, globally important commercial centres. They have embraced technology and modern management methods, often originating in the western countries. In adapting to quite different cultures these do not always operate as successfully. The adoption and practices of the Information Security Risk Management (ISRM)…

Program and Project Management Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Cassandra D.

2002-01-01

The primary objective of this project was to develop a framework and system architecture for integrating program and project management tools that may be applied consistently throughout Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to optimize planning, cost estimating, risk management, and project control. Project management methodology used in building interactive systems to accommodate the needs of the project managers is applied as a key component in assessing the usefulness and applicability of the framework and tools developed. Research for the project included investigation and analysis of industrial practices, KSC standards, policies, and techniques, Systems Management Office (SMO) personnel, and other documented experiences of project management experts. In addition, this project documents best practices derived from the literature as well as new or developing project management models, practices, and techniques.

An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

2015-02-01

Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

Australian Defence Risk Management Framework: A Comparative Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-01

disadvantage or gain. There may be a range of possible outcomes associated with an event. Definition 1.3.3 Event An incident or situation, which occurs in a...prohibitive insurance costs. Sometimes, advantages may far outweigh disadvantages making risk more justifiable. The unacceptable risks are...objectives, work culture and risk management approaches. Globalisation and introduction of new technologies have significantly complicated the situation

Developing a multi-pollutant conceptual framework for the selection and targeting of interventions in water industry catchment management schemes.

PubMed

Bloodworth, J W; Holman, I P; Burgess, P J; Gillman, S; Frogbrook, Z; Brown, P

2015-09-15

In recent years water companies have started to adopt catchment management to reduce diffuse pollution in drinking water supply areas. The heterogeneity of catchments and the range of pollutants that must be removed to meet the EU Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC) limits make it difficult to prioritise areas of a catchment for intervention. Thus conceptual frameworks are required that can disaggregate the components of pollutant risk and help water companies make decisions about where to target interventions in their catchments to maximum effect. This paper demonstrates the concept of generalising pollutants in the same framework by reviewing key pollutant processes within a source-mobilisation-delivery context. From this, criteria are developed (with input from water industry professionals involved in catchment management) which highlights the need for a new water industry specific conceptual framework. The new CaRPoW (Catchment Risk to Potable Water) framework uses the Source-Mobilisation-Delivery concept as modular components of risk that work at two scales, source and mobilisation at the field scale and delivery at the catchment scale. Disaggregating pollutant processes permits the main components of risk to be ascertained so that appropriate interventions can be selected. The generic structure also allows for the outputs from different pollutants to be compared so that potential multiple benefits can be identified. CaRPow provides a transferable framework that can be used by water companies to cost-effectively target interventions under current conditions or under scenarios of land use or climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

PubMed

Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

2017-09-05

Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

17 CFR 39.5 - Review of swaps for Commission determination on clearing requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... publicly; (vi) Risk management procedures, including measurement and monitoring of credit exposures... derivative clearing organization's ability to manage the risks associated with clearing the swap, especially... of rule framework, capacity, operational expertise and resources, and credit support infrastructure...

17 CFR 39.5 - Review of swaps for Commission determination on clearing requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... publicly; (vi) Risk management procedures, including measurement and monitoring of credit exposures... derivative clearing organization's ability to manage the risks associated with clearing the swap, especially... of rule framework, capacity, operational expertise and resources, and credit support infrastructure...

National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) cybersecurity risk management framework applied to modern vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

The primary objective of the work described in this report is to review the National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST) guidelines and foundational publications from an automotive : cybersecurity risk management stand-point. The NIST approach...

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

DOE PAGES

Hutchins, Margot J.; Bhinge, Raunak; Micali, Maxwell K.; ...

2015-10-21

Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supplymore » chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.« less

Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchins, Margot J.; Bhinge, Raunak; Micali, Maxwell K.

Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supplymore » chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.« less

Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

2013-04-01

Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can range from simple elicitation of data from a subject matter expert to calibrate a probability distribution to more advanced stochastic modelling. This approach can be referred to more as a proficiency in the language of uncertainty rather than modelling per se in the sense that it allows for greater flexibility to adapt a given context. In a real decision making context, one seldom has neither time nor budget resources to investigate all of these variables thoroughly, hence the importance of being able to prioritize the level of effort among them. Under the proposed framework, this can be done in an optimised fashion. The point here consists in applying probabilistic sensitivity analysis together with the fundamentals of the economic value of information; the framework as built is well suited to such considerations, and variables can be ranked according to their contribution to risk understanding. Efforts to deal with second order uncertainties on variables prove to be valuable when dealing with the economic value of sample information.

Definition and use of Solution-focused Sustainability Assessment: A novel approach to generate, explore and decide on sustainable solutions for wicked problems.

PubMed

Zijp, Michiel C; Posthuma, Leo; Wintersen, Arjen; Devilee, Jeroen; Swartjes, Frank A

2016-05-01

This paper introduces Solution-focused Sustainability Assessment (SfSA), provides practical guidance formatted as a versatile process framework, and illustrates its utility for solving a wicked environmental management problem. Society faces complex and increasingly wicked environmental problems for which sustainable solutions are sought. Wicked problems are multi-faceted, and deriving of a management solution requires an approach that is participative, iterative, innovative, and transparent in its definition of sustainability and translation to sustainability metrics. We suggest to add the use of a solution-focused approach. The SfSA framework is collated from elements from risk assessment, risk governance, adaptive management and sustainability assessment frameworks, expanded with the 'solution-focused' paradigm as recently proposed in the context of risk assessment. The main innovation of this approach is the broad exploration of solutions upfront in assessment projects. The case study concerns the sustainable management of slightly contaminated sediments continuously formed in ditches in rural, agricultural areas. This problem is wicked, as disposal of contaminated sediment on adjacent land is potentially hazardous to humans, ecosystems and agricultural products. Non-removal would however reduce drainage capacity followed by increased risks of flooding, while contaminated sediment removal followed by offsite treatment implies high budget costs and soil subsidence. Application of the steps in the SfSA-framework served in solving this problem. Important elements were early exploration of a wide 'solution-space', stakeholder involvement from the onset of the assessment, clear agreements on the risk and sustainability metrics of the problem and on the interpretation and decision procedures, and adaptive management. Application of the key elements of the SfSA approach eventually resulted in adoption of a novel sediment management policy. The stakeholder participation and the intensive communication throughout the project resulted in broad support for both the scientific approaches and results, as well as for policy implementation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Science framework for conservation and restoration of the sagebrush biome: Linking the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy to long-term strategic conservation actions, Part 1. Science basis and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, Jeanne C.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Bradford, John B.; Bybee, Jared; Campbell, Steve; Carlson, John; Christiansen, Thomas J; Clause, Karen J.; Collins, Gail; Crist, Michele R.; Dinkins, Jonathan B.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Edwards, Fred; Espinosa, Shawn; Griffin, Kathleen A.; Griffin, Paul; Haas, Jessica R.; Hanser, Steven E.; Havlina, Douglas W.; Henke, Kenneth F.; Hennig, Jacob D.; Joyce, Linda A; Kilkenny, Francis F.; Kulpa, Sarah M; Kurth, Laurie L; Maestas, Jeremy D; Manning, Mary E.; Mayer, Kenneth E.; Mealor, Brian A.; McCarthy, Clinton; Pellant, Mike; Perea, Marco A.; Prentice, Karen L.; Pyke, David A.; Wiechman , Lief A.; Wuenschel, Amarina

2017-01-01

The Science Framework is intended to link the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy with long-term strategic conservation actions in the sagebrush biome. The Science Framework provides a multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies within the sagebrush biome. The emphasis is on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). The approach provided in the Science Framework links sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive plant species to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. A geospatial process is presented that overlays information on ecosystem resilience and resistance, species habitats, and predominant threats and that can be used at the mid-scale to prioritize areas for management. A resilience and resistance habitat matrix is provided that can help decisionmakers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies. Prioritized areas and management strategies can be refined by managers and stakeholders at the local scale based on higher resolution data and local knowledge. Decision tools are discussed for determining appropriate management actions for areas that are prioritized for management. Geospatial data, maps, and models are provided through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ScienceBase and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Landscape Approach Data Portal. The Science Framework is intended to be adaptive and will be updated as additional data become available on other values and species at risk. It is anticipated that the Science Framework will be widely used to: (1) inform emerging strategies to conserve sagebrush ecosystems, sagebrush dependent species, and human uses of the sagebrush system, and (2) assist managers in prioritizing and planning on-the-ground restoration and mitigation actions across the sagebrush biome.

Surgical wound dehiscence: a conceptual framework for patient assessment.

PubMed

Sandy-Hodgetts, Kylie; Carville, Keryln; Leslie, Gavin D

2018-03-02

This paper presents a conceptual framework which outlines the risk factors associated with surgical wound dehiscence (SWD) as identified in the literature. The purpose for the development of the conceptual framework was to derive an evidence-based, informed understanding of factors associated with SWD, in order to inform a programme of research on the aetiology and potential risk factors of SWD. Incorporated within the patient-centric conceptual framework are patient related comorbidities, intraoperative and postoperative risk factors related to SWD. These are categorised as either 'mechanical' or 'physiological mechanisms' posited to influence these relationships. The use of the conceptual model for assessment of patients has particular clinical relevance for identification of risk and the management of patients in the pre-, intra- and postoperative period.

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE PAGES

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; ...

2017-08-25

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Generalizable open source urban water portfolio simulation framework demonstrated using a multi-objective risk-based planning benchmark problem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

The growing access and reduced cost for computing power in recent years has promoted rapid development and application of multi-objective water supply portfolio planning. As this trend continues there is a pressing need for flexible risk-based simulation frameworks and improved algorithm benchmarking for emerging classes of water supply planning and management problems. This work contributes the Water Utilities Management and Planning (WUMP) model: a generalizable and open source simulation framework designed to capture how water utilities can minimize operational and financial risks by regionally coordinating planning and management choices, i.e. making more efficient and coordinated use of restrictions, water transfers and financial hedging combined with possible construction of new infrastructure. We introduce the WUMP simulation framework as part of a new multi-objective benchmark problem for planning and management of regionally integrated water utility companies. In this problem, a group of fictitious water utilities seek to balance the use of the mentioned reliability driven actions (e.g., restrictions, water transfers and infrastructure pathways) and their inherent financial risks. Several traits of this problem make it ideal for a benchmark problem, namely the presence of (1) strong non-linearities and discontinuities in the Pareto front caused by the step-wise nature of the decision making formulation and by the abrupt addition of storage through infrastructure construction, (2) noise due to the stochastic nature of the streamflows and water demands, and (3) non-separability resulting from the cooperative formulation of the problem, in which decisions made by stakeholder may substantially impact others. Both the open source WUMP simulation framework and its demonstration in a challenging benchmarking example hold value for promoting broader advances in urban water supply portfolio planning for regions confronting change.

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 39 - Subpart C Election Form

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Commission's regulations. EXHIBIT F—RISK MANAGEMENT Attach, as Exhibit F, documents that demonstrate compliance with the risk management requirements set forth in § 39.36 of the Commission's regulations... identifiable location the derivatives clearing organization's responses to the Disclosure Framework for...

Fatigue Risk Management: A Maritime Framework

PubMed Central

Grech, Michelle Rita

2016-01-01

It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer’s role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this “poor compliance” trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue. PMID:26840326

Fatigue Risk Management: A Maritime Framework.

PubMed

Grech, Michelle Rita

2016-01-29

It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer's role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this "poor compliance" trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue.

78 FR 36797 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Fixed Income Clearing Corporation; Notice of Designation of Longer...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-19

... NYPC. In the proposed rule change, FICC acknowledged that it will have to alter its risk management framework to account for the non- linear risks presented by options on interest rate futures.\\6\\ The... rule change so that it has sufficient time to evaluate the risk management implications of the proposed...

Implementing the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) in Austria: Flood Risk Management Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhold, Clemens

2013-04-01

he Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (EFD) aims at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in the Community. This task is to be achieved based on three process steps (1) preliminary flood risk assessment (finalised by the end of 2011), (2) flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (due 2013) and (3) flood risk management plans (due 2015). Currently, an interdisciplinary national working group is defining the methodological framework for flood risk management plans in Austria supported by a constant exchange with international bodies and experts. Referring to the EFD the components of the flood risk management plan are (excerpt): 1. conclusions of the preliminary flood risk assessment 2. flood hazard maps and flood risk maps and the conclusions that can be drawn from those maps 3. a description of the appropriate objectives of flood risk management 4. a summary of measures and their prioritisation aiming to achieve the appropriate objectives of flood risk management The poster refers to some of the major challenges in this process, such as the legal provisions, coordination of administrative units, definition of public relations, etc. The implementation of the EFD requires the harmonisation of legal instruments of various disciplines (e.g. water management, spatial planning, civil protection) enabling a coordinated - and ideally binding - practice of flood risk management. This process is highly influenced by the administrative organisation in Austria - federal, provincial and municipality level. The Austrian approach meets this organisational framework by structuring the development of the flood risk management plan into 3 time-steps: (a) federal blueprint, (b) provincial editing and (c) federal finishing as well as reporting to the European Commission. Each time-step addresses different administrative levels and spatial scales accompanied by the active involvement of interested parties.

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

Seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winar, Setya

Earthquakes have long been feared as one of nature's most terrifying and devastating events. Although seismic codes clearly exist in countries with a high seismic risk to save lives and human suffering, earthquakes still continue to cause tragic events with high death tolls, particularly due to the collapse of widespread non-engineered buildings with non-seismic resistance in developing countries such as Indonesia. The implementation of seismic codes in non-engineered construction is the key to ensuring earthquake safety. In fact, such implementation is not simple, because it comprises all forms of cross disciplinary and cross sectoral linkages at different levels of understanding, commitment, and skill. This fact suggests that a widely agreed framework can help to harmonise the various perspectives. Hence, this research is aimed at developing an integrated framework for guiding and monitoring seismic risk reduction of non-engineered buildings in Indonesia via a risk management method.Primarily, the proposed framework for the study has drawn heavily on wider literature, the three existing frameworks around the world, and on the contribution of various stakeholders who participated in the study. A postal questionnaire survey, selected interviews, and workshop event constituted the primary data collection methods. As a robust framework needed to be achieved, the following two workshop events, which were conducted in Yogyakarta City and Bengkulu City in Indonesia, were carried out for practicality, validity, and moderation or any identifiable improvement requirements. The data collected was analysed with the assistance of SPSS and NVivo software programmes.This research found that the content of the proposed framework comprises 63 pairs of characteristic-indicators complemented by (a) three important factors of effective seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings, (b) three guiding principles for sustainable dissemination to the grass root communities and (c) a map of agents of change. Among the 63 pairs, there are 19 technical interventions and 44 non-technical interventions. These findings contribute to the wider knowledge in the domain of the seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings, in order to: (a) provide a basis for effective political advocacy, (b) reflect the multidimensional and inter-disciplinary nature of seismic risk reduction, (c) assist a wide range of users in determining roles, responsibilities, and accountabilities, and (d) provide the basis for setting goals and targets.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

INDOOR AIR ASSESSMENT - A REVIEW OF INDOOR AIR QUALITY RISK CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment methodologies provide a mechanism for incorporating scientific evidence and Judgments Into the risk management decision process. isk characterization framework has been developed to provide a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk characterizati...

A SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING COMPARATIVE RISK IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

There are significant scientific and technological challenges to managing natural resources. Data needs are cited as an obvious limitation, but there exist more fundamental scientific issues. What is still needed is a method of comparing management strategies based on projected i...

Fire Effects Planning Framework: A user's guide

Treesearch

A. Black; T. Opperman

2005-01-01

Each decision to suppress fire reinforces a feedback cycle in which fuels continue to accumulate, risk escalates, and the tendency to suppress fires grows (Miller and others, 2003). Existing decision-support tools focus primarily on the negative consequences of fire. This guide outlines a framework managers can use to (1) identify key areas of fire risk and (2)...

Model or Myopia? Exploiting Water Markets to Address Population and Drought Risks in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.

2012-12-01

Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.

Managing occupational risk in creative practice: a new perspective for occupational health and safety.

PubMed

Oughton, Nicholas

2013-01-01

There has been little recognition of the fact that creative production operates in a somewhat different environment and timeframe to that associated with traditional industries. This has resulted in the application of an orthodox, generic or ``one size fits all'' framework of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) systems across all industries. With the rapid growth of ``creative industry,'' certain challenges arise from the application of this "generic" strategy, mainly because the systems currently employed may not be entirely suitable for creative practice. Some OHS practitioners suggest that the current OHS paradigm is failing. This paper questions the appropriateness of applying a twentieth century OHS model in the present industrial context, and considers what framework will best provide for the well-being of creative workers and their enterprise in the twenty-first century. The paper questions the notion of "Risk" and the paradox associated with "Risk Management," particularly in the context of the creative process. Clearly, risk taking contributes to creative enterprise and effective risk management should accommodate both risk minimization and risk exploitation.

Robust Decision Making Approach to Managing Water Resource Risks (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R.

2010-12-01

The IPCC and US National Academies of Science have recommended iterative risk management as the best approach for water management and many other types of climate-related decisions. Such an approach does not rely on a single set of judgments at any one time but rather actively updates and refines strategies as new information emerges. In addition, the approach emphasizes that a portfolio of different types of responses, rather than any single action, often provides the best means to manage uncertainty. Implementing an iterative risk management approach can however prove difficult in actual decision support applications. This talk will suggest that robust decision making (RDM) provides a particularly useful set of quantitative methods for implementing iterative risk management. This RDM approach is currently being used in a wide variety of water management applications. RDM employs three key concepts that differentiate it from most types of probabilistic risk analysis: 1) characterizing uncertainty with multiple views of the future (which can include sets of probability distributions) rather than a single probabilistic best-estimate, 2) employing a robustness rather than an optimality criterion to assess alternative policies, and 3) organizing the analysis with a vulnerability and response option framework, rather than a predict-then-act framework. This talk will summarize the RDM approach, describe its use in several different types of water management applications, and compare the results to those obtained with other methods.

Frameworks for risk communication and disease management: the case of Lyme disease and countryside users

PubMed Central

Quine, Christopher P.; Barnett, Julie; Dobson, Andrew D. M.; Marcu, Afrodita; Marzano, Mariella; Moseley, Darren; O'Brien, Liz; Randolph, Sarah E.; Taylor, Jennifer L.; Uzzell, David

2011-01-01

Management of zoonotic disease is necessary if countryside users are to gain benefit rather than suffer harm from their activities, and to avoid disproportionate reaction to novel threats. We introduce a conceptual framework based on the pressure–state–response model with five broad responses to disease incidence. Influencing public behaviour is one response and requires risk communication based on an integration of knowledge about the disease with an understanding of how publics respond to precautionary advice. A second framework emphasizes how risk communication involves more than information provision and should address dimensions including points-of-intervention over time, place and audience. The frameworks are developed by reference to tick-borne Lyme borreliosis (also known as Lyme disease), for which informed precautionary behaviour is particularly relevant. Interventions to influence behaviour can be directed by knowledge of spatial and temporal variation of tick abundance, what constitutes risky behaviour, how people respond to information of varying content, and an understanding of the social practices related to countryside use. The frameworks clarify the response options and help identify who is responsible for risk communication. These aspects are not consistently understood, and may result in an underestimation of the role of land-based organizations in facilitating appropriate precautionary behaviour. PMID:21624921

Frameworks for risk communication and disease management: the case of Lyme disease and countryside users.

PubMed

Quine, Christopher P; Barnett, Julie; Dobson, Andrew D M; Marcu, Afrodita; Marzano, Mariella; Moseley, Darren; O'Brien, Liz; Randolph, Sarah E; Taylor, Jennifer L; Uzzell, David

2011-07-12

Management of zoonotic disease is necessary if countryside users are to gain benefit rather than suffer harm from their activities, and to avoid disproportionate reaction to novel threats. We introduce a conceptual framework based on the pressure-state-response model with five broad responses to disease incidence. Influencing public behaviour is one response and requires risk communication based on an integration of knowledge about the disease with an understanding of how publics respond to precautionary advice. A second framework emphasizes how risk communication involves more than information provision and should address dimensions including points-of-intervention over time, place and audience. The frameworks are developed by reference to tick-borne Lyme borreliosis (also known as Lyme disease), for which informed precautionary behaviour is particularly relevant. Interventions to influence behaviour can be directed by knowledge of spatial and temporal variation of tick abundance, what constitutes risky behaviour, how people respond to information of varying content, and an understanding of the social practices related to countryside use. The frameworks clarify the response options and help identify who is responsible for risk communication. These aspects are not consistently understood, and may result in an underestimation of the role of land-based organizations in facilitating appropriate precautionary behaviour.

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment.

PubMed

Linkov, Igor; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura; Allen, Craig R; Arnott, James C; Bellini, Emanuele; Coaffee, Jon; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Hatfield, Kirk; Hyde, Iain; Hynes, William; Jovanovic, Aleksandar; Kasperson, Roger; Katzenberger, John; Keys, Patrick W; Lambert, James H; Moss, Richard; Murdoch, Peter S; Palma-Oliveira, Jose; Pulwarty, Roger S; Sands, Dale; Thomas, Edward A; Tye, Mari R; Woods, David

2018-04-25

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

EPA Science Inventory

The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

Addendum to ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa; Markandya, Anil; María Abadie, Luis

2018-02-01

This addendum adds to the analysis presented in ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’ Abadie et al (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 014017). We propose to use the framework developed earlier to enhance communication and understanding of risks, with the aim of bridging the gap between highly technical risk management discussion to the public risk aversion debate. We also propose that the framework could be used for stress-testing resilience.

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

PubMed

Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

2015-11-01

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

An Examination of an Information Security Framework Implementation Based on Agile Values to Achieve Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Security Rule Compliance in an Academic Medical Center: The Thomas Jefferson University Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reis, David W.

2012-01-01

Agile project management is most often examined in relation to software development, while information security frameworks are often examined with respect to certain risk management capabilities rather than in terms of successful implementation approaches. This dissertation extended the study of both Agile project management and information…

Towards a practical framework for managing the risks of selecting technology to support independent living.

PubMed

Monk, Andrew; Hone, Kate; Lines, Lorna; Dowdall, Alan; Baxter, Gordon; Blythe, Mark; Wright, Peter

2006-09-01

Information and communication technology applications can help increase the independence and quality of life of older people, or people with disabilities who live in their own homes. A risk management framework is proposed to assist in selecting applications that match the needs and wishes of particular individuals. Risk comprises two components: the likelihood of the occurrence of harm and the consequences of that harm. In the home, the social and psychological harms are as important as the physical ones. The importance of the harm (e.g., injury) is conditioned by its consequences (e.g., distress, costly medical treatment). We identify six generic types of harm (including dependency, loneliness, fear and debt) and four generic consequences (including distress and loss of confidence in ability to live independently). The resultant client-centred framework offers a systematic basis for selecting and evaluating technology for independent living.

Pharmaceuticals in tap water: human health risk assessment and proposed monitoring framework in China.

PubMed

Leung, Ho Wing; Jin, Ling; Wei, Si; Tsui, Mirabelle Mei Po; Zhou, Bingsheng; Jiao, Liping; Cheung, Pak Chuen; Chun, Yiu Kan; Murphy, Margaret Burkhardt; Lam, Paul Kwan Sing

2013-07-01

Pharmaceuticals are known to contaminate tap water worldwide, but the relevant human health risks have not been assessed in China. We monitored 32 pharmaceuticals in Chinese tap water and evaluated the life-long human health risks of exposure in order to provide information for future prioritization and risk management. We analyzed samples (n = 113) from 13 cities and compared detected concentrations with existing or newly-derived safety levels for assessing risk quotients (RQs) at different life stages, excluding the prenatal stage. We detected 17 pharmaceuticals in 89% of samples, with most detectable concentrations (92%) at < 50 ng/L. Caffeine (median-maximum, nanograms per liter: 24.4-564), metronidazole (1.8-19.3), salicylic acid (16.6-41.2), clofibric acid (1.2-3.3), carbamazepine (1.3-6.7), and dimetridazole (6.9-14.7) were found in ≥ 20% of samples. Cities within the Yangtze River region and Guangzhou were regarded as contamination hot spots because of elevated levels and frequent positive detections. Of the 17 pharmaceuticals detected, 13 showed very low risk levels, but 4 (i.e., dimetridazole, thiamphenicol, sulfamethazine, and clarithromycin) were found to have at least one life-stage RQ ≥ 0.01, especially for the infant and child life stages, and should be considered of high priority for management. We propose an indicator-based monitoring framework for providing information for source identification, water treatment effectiveness, and water safety management in China. Chinese tap water is an additional route of human exposure to pharmaceuticals, particularly for dimetridazole, although the risk to human health is low based on current toxicity data. Pharmaceutical detection and application of the proposed monitoring framework can be used for water source protection and risk management in China and elsewhere.

Stop Stroke: development of an innovative intervention to improve risk factor management after stroke.

PubMed

Redfern, Judith; Rudd, Anthony D; Wolfe, Charles D A; McKevitt, Christopher

2008-08-01

Stroke survivors are at high risk of stroke recurrence yet current strategies to reduce recurrence risk are sub-optimal. The UK Medical Research Council (MRC) have proposed a framework for developing and evaluating complex interventions, such as community management of stroke secondary prevention. The Framework outlines a five-phased approach from theory through to implementation of effective interventions. This paper reports Phases I-III of the development of a novel intervention to improve risk factor management after stroke. The pre-clinical/theoretical phase entailed reviewing the literature and undertaking quantitative and qualitative studies to identify current practices and barriers to secondary prevention. In Phase I (modelling), findings were used to design an intervention with the potential to overcome barriers to effective stroke secondary prevention management. The feasibility of delivering the intervention and its acceptability were tested in the Phase II exploratory trial involving 25 stroke survivors and their general practitioners. This led to the development of the definitive risk factor management intervention. This comprises multiple components and involves using an on-going population stroke register to target patients, carers and health care professionals with tailored secondary prevention advice. Clinical, socio-demographic and service use data collected by the stroke register are transformed to provide an individualised secondary prevention package for patients, carers and health care professionals at three time points: within 10 weeks, 3 and 6 months post-stroke. The intervention is currently being evaluated in a randomised controlled trial. Further research is needed to test generalisability to other aspects of stroke management and for other chronic diseases. The MRC Framework for complex interventions provides a structured approach to guide the development of novel interventions in public health. Implications for practice in stroke secondary prevention will emerge when the results of our randomised controlled trial are published.

Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

2018-01-01

The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

Expanding the Reach of Participatory Risk Management: Testing an Online Decision-Aiding Framework for Informing Internally Consistent Choices.

PubMed

Bessette, Douglas L; Campbell-Arvai, Victoria; Arvai, Joseph

2016-05-01

This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision-aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users' prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision-aiding framework, a six-part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users' own constructed (or highest-ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants' self-reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk-management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users' decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives' composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users' real and perceived internal consistency. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lengyel, David M.

2009-01-01

The NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) IRKM-P tightly couples risk management and knowledge management processes and tools to produce an effective "modern" work environment. IRKM-P objectives include: (1) to learn lessons from past and current programs (Apollo, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station); (2) to generate and share new engineering design, operations, and management best practices through preexisting Continuous Risk Management (CRM) procedures and knowledge-management practices; and (3) to infuse those lessons and best practices into current activities. The conceptual framework of the IRKM-P is based on the assumption that risks highlight potential knowledge gaps that might be mitigated through one or more knowledge management practices or artifacts. These same risks also serve as cues for collection of knowledge particularly, knowledge of technical or programmatic challenges that might recur.

Ship Maintenance Processes with Collaborative Product Lifecycle Management and 3D Terrestrial Laser Scanning Tools: Reducing Costs and Increasing Productivity

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-30

developed the Knowledge Value Added + Systems Dynamics + Integrated Risk Management (KVA+SD+IRM) valuation framework to address these issues. KVA+SD...SD+IRM framework is used to quantify process cost savings and the potential benefits of selecting collab-PLM+3D TLS technology in the ship SHIPMAIN...The first section of this paper explicates the KVA+SD+IRM framework . In section two, a description of the SHIPMAIN program is provided. The third

Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making

Treesearch

David C. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Krista M. Gebert

2011-01-01

In this paper we review progress towards the implementation of a riskmanagement framework for US federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical methods to measure...

Development of a Core Curriculum Framework in Cariology for U.S. Dental Schools.

PubMed

Fontana, Margherita; Guzmán-Armstrong, Sandra; Schenkel, Andrew B; Allen, Kennneth L; Featherstone, John; Goolsby, Susie; Kanjirath, Preetha; Kolker, Justine; Martignon, Stefania; Pitts, Nigel; Schulte, Andreas; Slayton, Rebecca L; Young, Douglas; Wolff, Mark

2016-06-01

Maintenance of health and preservation of tooth structure through risk-based prevention and patient-centered, evidence-based disease management, reassessed at regular intervals over time, are the cornerstones of present-day caries management. Yet management of caries based on risk assessment that goes beyond restorative care has not had a strong place in curriculum development and competency assessment in U.S. dental schools. The aim of this study was to develop a competency-based core cariology curriculum framework for use in U.S. dental schools. The Section on Cariology of the American Dental Education Association (ADEA) organized a one-day consensus workshop, followed by a meeting program, to adapt the European Core Cariology Curriculum to the needs of U.S. dental education. Participants in the workshop were 73 faculty members from 35 U.S., three Canadian, and four international dental schools. Representatives from all 65 U.S. dental schools were then invited to review and provide feedback on a draft document. A recommended competency statement on caries management was also developed: "Upon graduation, a dentist must be competent in evidence-based detection, diagnosis, risk assessment, prevention, and nonsurgical and surgical management of dental caries, both at the individual and community levels, and be able to reassess the outcomes of interventions over time." This competency statement supports a curriculum framework built around five domains: 1) knowledge base; 2) risk assessment, diagnosis, and synthesis; 3) treatment decision making: preventive strategies and nonsurgical management; 4) treatment decision making: surgical therapy; and 5) evidence-based cariology in clinical and public health practice. Each domain includes objectives and learning outcomes.

Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

PubMed

Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

2015-04-01

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Clinical Framework to Facilitate Risk Stratification When Considering an Active Surveillance Alternative to Immediate Biopsy and Surgery in Papillary Microcarcinoma.

PubMed

Brito, Juan P; Ito, Yasuhiro; Miyauchi, Akira; Tuttle, R Michael

2016-01-01

The 2015 American Thyroid Association thyroid cancer management guidelines endorse an active surveillance management approach as an alternative to immediate biopsy and surgery in subcentimeter thyroid nodules with highly suspicious ultrasonographic characteristics and in cytologically confirmed very low risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the guidelines provide no specific recommendations with regard to the optimal selection of patients for an active surveillance management approach. This article describes a risk-stratified clinical decision-making framework that was developed by the thyroid cancer disease management team at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center as the lessons learned from Kuma Hospital in Japan were applied to a cohort of patients with probable or proven papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) who were being evaluated for an active surveillance management approach in the United States. A risk-stratified approach to the evaluation of patients with probable or proven PMC being considered for an active surveillance management approach requires an evaluation of three interrelated but distinct domains: (i) tumor/neck ultrasound characteristics (e.g., size of the primary tumor, the location of the tumor within the thyroid gland); (ii) patient characteristics (e.g., age, comorbidities, willingness to accept observation); and (iii) medical team characteristics (e.g., availability and experience of the multidisciplinary team). Based on an analysis of the critical factors within each of these domains, patients with probable or proven PTC can then be classified as ideal, appropriate, or inappropriate candidates for active surveillance. Risk stratification utilizing the proposed decision-making framework will improve the ability of clinicians to recognize individual patients with proven or probable PMC who are most likely to benefit from an active surveillance management option while at the same time identifying patients with proven or probable PMC that would be better served with an upfront biopsy and surgical management approach.

Applying Systems Thinking to Law Enforcement Safety: Recommendation for a Comprehensive Safety Management Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Occupational Injuries COPS Community Oriented Policing Services CRM Crew Resource Management DA Department of the Army FEMA Federal Emergency...establishes composite risk management ( CRM ), also known as crew resource management, “as the Army’s principal risk reduction methodology and assures...regulatory and statutory compliance.”106 CRM , also utilized by other branches within the military and by the aviation industry, is intended “to minimize

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

Treesearch

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

2006-01-01

The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.

PubMed

Wilby, R L; Orr, H G; Hedger, M; Forrow, D; Blackmore, M

2006-12-01

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.

The SAM framework: modeling the effects of management factors on human behavior in risk analysis.

PubMed

Murphy, D M; Paté-Cornell, M E

1996-08-01

Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not account for the underlying causes of these errors because they focus on the physical system and do not explicitly address the link between components' performance and organizational factors. This paper describes a general approach for addressing the human and management causes of system failure, called the SAM (System-Action-Management) framework. Beginning with a quantitative risk model of the physical system, SAM expands the scope of analysis to incorporate first the decisions and actions of individuals that affect the physical system. SAM then links management factors (incentives, training, policies and procedures, selection criteria, etc.) to those decisions and actions. The focus of this paper is on four quantitative models of action that describe this last relationship. These models address the formation of intentions for action and their execution as a function of the organizational environment. Intention formation is described by three alternative models: a rational model, a bounded rationality model, and a rule-based model. The execution of intentions is then modeled separately. These four models are designed to assess the probabilities of individual actions from the perspective of management, thus reflecting the uncertainties inherent to human behavior. The SAM framework is illustrated for a hypothetical case of hazardous materials transportation. This framework can be used as a tool to increase the safety and reliability of complex technical systems by modifying the organization, rather than, or in addition to, re-designing the physical system.

Challenges Associated With Managing Suicide Risk in Long-Term Care Facilities.

PubMed

O'Riley, Alisa; Nadorff, Michael R; Conwell, Yeates; Edelstein, Barry

2013-06-01

Little information about suicidal ideation and behavior in long-term care (LTC) facilities is available. Nonetheless, the implementation of the Minimum Data Set 3.0 requires that LTC facilities screen their residents for suicide risk and have protocols in place to effectively manage residents' responses. In this article, the authors briefly discuss the risk factors of suicide in the elderly and the problems that suicidal ideation and behavior pose in the LTC environment. The authors explain issues that arise when trying to manage suicide risk in the elderly LTC population with general, traditional approaches. These inherent issues make it difficult to develop an effective protocol for managing suicide risk in LTC facilities, leading the authors to propose their own framework for assessing and managing suicide risk in the LTC setting.

Modeling insurer-homeowner interactions in managing natural disaster risk.

PubMed

Kesete, Yohannes; Peng, Jiazhen; Gao, Yang; Shan, Xiaojun; Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Kruse, Jamie

2014-06-01

The current system for managing natural disaster risk in the United States is problematic for both homeowners and insurers. Homeowners are often uninsured or underinsured against natural disaster losses, and typically do not invest in retrofits that can reduce losses. Insurers often do not want to insure against these losses, which are some of their biggest exposures and can cause an undesirably high chance of insolvency. There is a need to design an improved system that acknowledges the different perspectives of the stakeholders. In this article, we introduce a new modeling framework to help understand and manage the insurer's role in catastrophe risk management. The framework includes a new game-theoretic optimization model of insurer decisions that interacts with a utility-based homeowner decision model and is integrated with a regional catastrophe loss estimation model. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as bounds on the insurer-insured interactions. We demonstrate the model for a full-scale case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in eastern North Carolina; present the results from the perspectives of all stakeholders-primary insurers, homeowners (insured and uninsured), and reinsurers; and examine the effect of key parameters on the results. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

[The socio-hygienic monitoring as an integral system for health risk assessment and risk management at the regional level].

PubMed

Kuzmin, S V; Gurvich, V B; Dikonskaya, O V; Malykh, O L; Yarushin, S V; Romanov, S V; Kornilkov, A S

2013-01-01

The information and analytical framework for the introduction of health risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the Sverdlovsk Region is the system of socio-hygienic monitoring. Techniques of risk management that take into account the choice of most cost-effective and efficient actions for improvement of the sanitary and epidemiologic situation at the level of the region, municipality, or a business entity of the Russian Federation, have been developed and proposed. To assess the efficiency of planning and activities for health risk management common method approaches and economic methods of "cost-effectiveness" and "cost-benefit" analyses provided in method recommendations and introduced in the Russian Federation are applied.

A psychosocial risk assessment and management framework to enhance response to CBRN terrorism threats and attacks.

PubMed

Lemyre, Louise; Clément, Mélanie; Corneil, Wayne; Craig, Lorraine; Boutette, Paul; Tyshenko, Michael; Karyakina, Nataliya; Clarke, Robert; Krewski, Daniel

2005-01-01

Evidence in the disaster mental health literature indicates that psychosocial consequences of terrorism are a critical component of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events, both at the clinical level and the normal behavioral and emotional levels. Planning for such psychosocial aspects should be an integral part of emergency preparedness. As Canada and other countries build the capacity to prevent, mitigate, and manage CBRN threats and events, it is important to recognize the range of social, psychological, emotional, spiritual, behavioral, and cognitive factors that may affect victims and their families, communities, children, the elderly, responders, decision makers, and others at all phases of terrorism, from threat to post-impact recovery. A structured process to assist CBRN emergency planners, decision makers, and responders in identifying psychosocial risks, vulnerable populations, resources, and interventions at various phases of a CBRN event to limit negative psychosocial impacts and promote resilience and adaptive responses is the essence of our psychosocial risk assessment and management (P-RAM) framework. This article presents the evidence base and conceptual underpinnings of the framework, the principles underlying its design, its key elements, and its use in the development of decision tools for responders, planners, decision makers, and the general public to better assess and manage psychosocial aspects of CBRN threats or attacks.

The precautionary principle in fisheries management under climate change: How the international legal framework formulate it?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latifah, E.; Imanullah, M. N.

2018-03-01

One of the objectives of fisheries management is to reach long-term sustainable benefits of the fish stocks while reducing the risk of severe or irreversible damage to the marine ecosystem. Achieving this objective needs, the good scientific knowledge and understanding on fisheries management including scientific data and information on the fish stock, fishing catch, distribution, migration, the proportion of mature fish, the mortality rate, reproduction as well as the knowledge on the impact of fishing on dependent and associated species and other species belonging to the same ecosystem, and further the impact of climate change and climate variability on the fish stocks and marine ecosystem. Lack of this scientific knowledge may lead to high levels of uncertainty. The precautionary principle is one of the basic environmental principles needed in overcoming this problem. An essence of this principle is that, in facing the serious risk as a result of the limited scientific knowledge or the absence of complete evidence of harm, it should not prevent the precautionary measures in minimizing risks and protecting the fish stocks and ecosystem. This study aims to examine how the precautionary principle in fisheries management be formulated into the international legal framework, especially under the climate change framework.

The impacts of uncertainty and variability in groundwater-driven health risk assessment. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Potential human health risk from contaminated groundwater is becoming an important, quantitative measure used in management decisions in a range of applications from Superfund to CO2 sequestration. Quantitatively assessing the potential human health risks from contaminated groundwater is challenging due to the many coupled processes, uncertainty in transport parameters and the variability in individual physiology and behavior. Perspective on human health risk assessment techniques will be presented and a framework used to predict potential, increased human health risk from contaminated groundwater will be discussed. This framework incorporates transport of contaminants through the subsurface from source to receptor and health risks to individuals via household exposure pathways. The subsurface is shown subject to both physical and chemical heterogeneity which affects downstream concentrations at receptors. Cases are presented where hydraulic conductivity can exhibit both uncertainty and spatial variability in addition to situations where hydraulic conductivity is the dominant source of uncertainty in risk assessment. Management implications, such as characterization and remediation will also be discussed.

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

Operational Resiliency Management: An Introduction to the Resiliency Engineering Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-20

Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) . 5 © 2006 Carnegie Mellon University y FRB Bus Con Conference 2006 Managing Today’s Operational Risk Challenges ...Bus Con Conference 2006 A model is needed to. . . Identify and prioritize risk exposures Define a process improvement roadmap Measure and facilitate...University y FRB Bus Con Conference 2006 Why use a “model” approach? Provides an operational risk roadmap Vendor-neutral, standardized, unbiased

A comparative risk assessment framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Mark A. Finney; Danny C. Lee; Thomas M. Quigley; Charles W. McHugh; Karin L. Riley; Julie M. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-based approach to fire and fuels management and suggest analyses that may be applied at multiple scales to inform...

Creating an outcomes framework.

PubMed

Doerge, J B

2000-01-01

Four constructs used to build a framework for outcomes management for a large midwestern tertiary hospital are described in this article. A system framework outlining a model of clinical integration and population management based in Steven Shortell's work is discussed. This framework includes key definitions of high-risk patients, target groups, populations and community. Roles for each level of population management and how they were implemented in the health care system are described. A point of service framework centered on seven dimensions of care is the next construct applied on each nursing unit. The third construct outlines the framework for role development. Three roles for nursing were created to implement strategies for target groups that are strategic disease categories; two of those roles are described in depth. The philosophy of nursing practice is centered on caring and existential advocacy. The final construct is the modification of the Dartmouth model as a common framework for outcomes. System applications of the scorecard and lessons learned in the 2-year process of implementation are shared

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

2009-07-01

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Insook; Won, Seonae; Lee, Mijin; Lee, Won

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

Business continuity and risk management at a strategic level: Case study of the Flemish government.

PubMed

Bouve, Joris; Steens, Herman-Peter; Ruebens, Martin

2018-01-01

The Flemish government comprises a number of different departments and agencies with the autonomy to optimise their service level in a proactive and resilient manner. Recently, the Flemish government defined four organisational values: openness, decisiveness, trust and agility. In addition, the Internal Audit Agency developed guidelines concerning internal control and organisational management, in which risk management was emphasised. In combination with goal setting and process management, this paper considers risk management as a starting point for the overall management of Flemish government entities. The paper then develops tools to support the establishment of business continuity and risk management processes. These tools fit into the organisation's strategic framework and are easy to understand, pragmatically designed and flexible in their use. The paper goes on to illustrate how the Department of the Chancellery and Public Governance is implementing BCM and risk management, and how it is integrating BCM, risk management and crisis management. It will then focus on the Flemish government's long-term strategy across the boundaries between the different entities and the question of how risk management can become a useful tool for policy makers.

Job Loss at Mid-Life: Managers and Executives Face the "New Risk Economy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendenhall, Ruby; Kalil, Ariel; Spindel, Laurel J.; Hart, Cassandra M. D.

2008-01-01

We use a life course framework to examine how the "new risk economy" has left middle-age professionals, managers and executives more vulnerable to job loss and unemployment despite high levels of human capital. Using in-depth qualitative data from 77 recently-unemployed white-collar workers, we examine perceptions of macro-economic…

CERT Resiliency Engineering Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

Heightened threat level and increasing uncertainty Shorter-lived skills 5 Operational risk management problems Poor planning and execution No asset...increasingly effective & efficient Today’s operational environment No operational boundaries Pervasive & rapidly changing technology Dynamic & expanding risks ...management function Seen as a technical function or responsibility Searching for magic bullet: CobiT , ITIL, ISO17799, NFP1600 Poorly defined and measured

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees

PubMed Central

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees. PMID:25972877

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees.

PubMed

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees.

Application of quality risk management to set viable environmental monitoring frequencies in biotechnology processing and support areas.

PubMed

Sandle, Tim

2012-01-01

Environmental monitoring programs are essential for pharmaceutical facilities in order to assess the level of environmental control. For biotechnology facilities there is little advice as to the frequency at which viable environmental monitoring should be conducted. This paper outlines an approach, based on the principles of quality risk management, for the development of a framework from which monitoring frequencies can be determined. This involved the identification of common hazards and the evaluation those hazards in terms of the severity of contamination and the probability of contamination occurring. These elements of risk were evaluated for different cleanrooms and the relative risks ranked. Once the risk scores were calculated, the methods for detecting risks within the cleanrooms were assessed. Risk filtering was then used to group different cleanrooms based on their relative risks and detection methods against predetermined monitoring frequencies. Through use of case study examples, the paper presents the model and describes how appropriate frequencies for the environmental monitoring of cleanrooms can be set. Cleanrooms in which biotechnology pharmaceutical processing takes place are subject to environmental monitoring. The frequency at which such monitoring should be performed can be difficult to determine. This paper uses quality risk assessment methods to construct a framework for determining monitoring frequencies and illustrates the suitability of the framework through a case study.

Defense Acquisition Transformation Report to Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

current initiatives and for the purposes of this report are put into a framework of workforce, acquisition, requirements, budget, industry and organization...requirements. The Capability Portfolio Management Initiative provides a common framework to recognize federated ownership and senior-level teams have been...Performance Trade Off Constraints Risk Based Source Selection techniques are also being piloted to provide an improved framework for

Implementing sustainable drainage systems for urban surface water management within the regulatory framework in England and Wales.

PubMed

Ellis, J Bryan; Lundy, Lian

2016-12-01

The UK 2007 floods resulted in damages estimated to exceed over £4 billion. This triggered a national review of strategic flood risk management (Pitt, 2008) with its recommendations informing and implemented by the Flood and Water Management, Act (FWMA, 2010). Estimating that up to two-thirds of properties flooded in the 2007 event as a direct result of overloaded sewer systems, the FWMA set out an ambitious overhaul of flood risk management approaches including identifying bodies responsible for the management of local flood risk (local municipalities) and the development of over-arching Lead Local Flood Authorities (LLFAs) at a regional level. LLFAs duties include developing local flood risk management strategies and, aligned with this, many LLFAs and local municipalities produced sustainable drainage system (SUDS) guidance notes. In parallel, changes to the national planning policy framework (NPPF) in England give priority to the use of SUDS in new major developments, as does the related Town and Country Planning Order (2015). However, whilst all three pieces of legislation refer to the preferential use of SUDs, these requirements remain "economically proportionate" and thus the inclusion of SUDS within development controls remain desirable - but not mandatory - obligations. Within this dynamic policy context, reignited most recently by the December 2015 floods, this paper examines some of the challenges to the implementation of SUDS in England and Wales posed by the new regulatory frameworks. In particular, it examines how emerging organisational procedures and processes are likely to impact on future SUDS implementation, and highlights the need for further cross-sectoral working to ensure opportunities for cross-sectoral benefits- such as that accrued by reducing stormwater flows within combined sewer systems for water companies, property developers and environmental protection - are not lost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome: cancer risk assessment and clinical management.

PubMed

McBride, Kate A; Ballinger, Mandy L; Killick, Emma; Kirk, Judy; Tattersall, Martin H N; Eeles, Rosalind A; Thomas, David M; Mitchell, Gillian

2014-05-01

Carriers of germline mutations in the TP53 gene, encoding the cell-cycle regulator and tumour suppressor p53, have a markedly increased risk of cancer-related morbidity and mortality during both childhood and adulthood, and thus require appropriate and effective cancer risk management. However, the predisposition of such patients to multiorgan tumorigenesis presents a specific challenge for cancer risk management programmes. Herein, we review the clinical implications of germline mutations in TP53 and the evidence for cancer screening and prevention strategies in individuals carrying such mutations, as well as examining the potential psychosocial implications of lifelong management for a ubiquitous cancer risk. In addition, we propose an evidence-based framework for the clinical management of TP53 mutation carriers and provide a platform for addressing the management of other cancer predisposition syndromes that can affect multiple organs.

Quality Management Framework for Total Diet Study centres in Europe.

PubMed

Pité, Marina; Pinchen, Hannah; Castanheira, Isabel; Oliveira, Luisa; Roe, Mark; Ruprich, Jiri; Rehurkova, Irena; Sirot, Veronique; Papadopoulos, Alexandra; Gunnlaugsdóttir, Helga; Reykdal, Ólafur; Lindtner, Oliver; Ritvanen, Tiina; Finglas, Paul

2018-02-01

A Quality Management Framework to improve quality and harmonization of Total Diet Study practices in Europe was developed within the TDS-Exposure Project. Seventeen processes were identified and hazards, Critical Control Points and associated preventive and corrective measures described. The Total Diet Study process was summarized in a flowchart divided into planning and practical (sample collection, preparation and analysis; risk assessment analysis and publication) phases. Standard Operating Procedures were developed and implemented in pilot studies in five organizations. The flowchart was used to develop a quality framework for Total Diet Studies that could be included in formal quality management systems. Pilot studies operated by four project partners were visited by project assessors who reviewed implementation of the proposed framework and identified areas that could be improved. The quality framework developed can be the starting point for any Total Diet Study centre and can be used within existing formal quality management approaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for responding to coral disease outbreaks that facilitates adaptive management.

PubMed

Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Marshall, Paul A; Heron, Scott F; Willis, Bette L

2012-01-01

Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.

A Framework for Responding to Coral Disease Outbreaks that Facilitates Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Marshall, Paul A.; Heron, Scott F.; Willis, Bette L.

2012-01-01

Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 1: Theoretical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

Rules and regulations as potential moderator on the relationship between organizational internal and external factors with effective construction risk management in Nigerian construction companies: A proposed framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeleke, A. Q.; Bahaudin, A. Y.; Kamaruddeen, A. M.

2016-08-01

Certain organizational internal and external factors have been found to influence effective construction risk management within the construction company which has contributed to massive risk occurrence on the projects. Yet, the influence of the organizational factors such as effective communication, team competency with skills, active leadership, political factor, organizational culture, technology factor and economic factor on effective construction risk management among the construction companies operating in Abuja and Lagos state Nigeria have not received considerable attention. More so, a moderating variable is proposed. This paper proposes rules and regulations as the potential moderator on the relationship between organisational internal factors, external factors and effective construction risk management.

Understanding growers' decisions to manage invasive pathogens at the farm level.

PubMed

Breukers, Annemarie; van Asseldonk, Marcel; Bremmer, Johan; Beekman, Volkert

2012-06-01

Globalization causes plant production systems to be increasingly threatened by invasive pests and pathogens. Much research is devoted to support management of these risks. Yet, the role of growers' perceptions and behavior in risk management has remained insufficiently analyzed. This article aims to fill this gap by addressing risk management of invasive pathogens from a sociopsychological perspective. An analytical framework based on the Theory of Planned Behavior was used to explain growers' decisions on voluntary risk management measures. Survey information from 303 Dutch horticultural growers was statistically analyzed, including regression and cluster analysis. It appeared that growers were generally willing to apply risk management measures, and that poor risk management was mainly due to perceived barriers, such as high costs and doubts regarding efficacy of management measures. The management measures applied varied considerably among growers, depending on production sector and farm-specific circumstances. Growers' risk perception was found to play a role in their risk management, although the causal relation remained unclear. These results underscore the need to apply a holistic perspective to farm level management of invasive pathogen risk, considering the entire package of management measures and accounting for sector- and farm-specific circumstances. Moreover, they demonstrate that invasive pathogen risk management can benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates growers' perceptions and behavior.

Prototype development of a web-based participative decision support platform in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

This paper discusses the proposed background architecture and prototype development of an internet-based decision support system (DSS) in the field of natural hazards and risk management using open-source geospatial software and web technologies. It is based on a three-tier, client-server architecture with the support of boundless (opengeo) framework and its client side SDK application environment using customized gxp components and data utility classes. The main purpose of the system is to integrate the workflow of risk management systematically with the diverse involvement of stakeholders from different organizations dealing with natural hazards and risk for evaluation of management measures through the active online participation approach. It aims to develop an adaptive user friendly, web-based environment that allows the users to set up risk management strategies based on actual context and data by integrating web-GIS and DSS functionality associated with process flow and other visualization tools. Web-GIS interface has been integrated within the DSS to deliver maps and provide certain geo-processing capabilities on the web, which can be easily accessible and shared by different organizations located in case study sites of the project. This platform could be envisaged not only as a common web-based platform for the centralized sharing of data such as hazard maps, elements at risk maps and additional information but also to ensure an integrated platform of risk management where the users could upload data, analyze risk and identify possible alternative scenarios for risk reduction especially for floods and landslides, either quantitatively or qualitatively depending on the risk information provided by the stakeholders in case study regions. The level of involvement, access to and interaction with the provided functionality of the system varies depending on the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders, for example, only the experts (planners, geological services, etc.) can have access to the alternative definition component to formulate the risk reduction measures. The development of such a participative platform would finally lead to an integrated risk management approach highlighting the needs to deal with involved experts and civil society in the decision-making process for evaluation of risk management measures through the active participation approach. The system will be applied and evaluated in four case study areas of the CHANGES project in Europe: Romania, North Eastern Italy, French Alps and Poland. However, the framework of the system is designed in a generic way so as to be applicable in other regions to achieve the high adaptability and flexibility of the system. The research has been undertaken as a part of the CHANGES project funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program.

Assessing secondary soil salinization risk based on the PSR sustainability framework.

PubMed

Zhou, De; Lin, Zhulu; Liu, Liming; Zimmermann, David

2013-10-15

Risk assessment of secondary soil salinization, which is caused in part by the way people manage the land, is an essential challenge to agricultural sustainability. The objective of our study was to develop a soil salinity risk assessment methodology by selecting a consistent set of risk factors based on the conceptual Pressure-State-Response (PSR) sustainability framework and incorporating the grey relational analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process methods. The proposed salinity risk assessment methodology was demonstrated through a case study of developing composite risk index maps for the Yinchuan Plain, a major irrigation agriculture district in northwest China. Fourteen risk factors were selected in terms of the three PSR criteria: pressure, state, and response. The results showed that the salinity risk in the Yinchuan Plain was strongly influenced by the subsoil and groundwater salinity, land use, distance to irrigation canals, and depth to groundwater. To maintain agricultural sustainability in the Yinchuan Plain, a suite of remedial and preventative actions were proposed to manage soil salinity risk in the regions that are affected by salinity at different levels and by different salinization processes. The weight sensitivity analysis results also showed that the overall salinity risk of the Yinchuan Plain would increase or decrease as the weights for pressure or response risk factors increased, signifying the importance of human activities on secondary soil salinization. Ideally, the proposed methodology will help us develop more consistent management tools for risk assessment and management and for control of secondary soil salinization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

Can a pharmacy intervention improve the metabolic risks of mental health patients? Evaluation of a novel collaborative service.

PubMed

Maulavizada, Husna; Emmerton, Lynne; Hattingh, Hendrika Laetitia

2016-04-26

The pressure on healthcare services worldwide has driven the incorporation of disease state management services within community pharmacies in developed countries. Pharmacists are recognised as the most accessible healthcare professionals, and the incorporation of these services facilitates patient care. In Australia, the opportunity to manage pharmacy patients with mental illness has been underutilised, despite the existence of service models for other chronic conditions. This paper is an independent evaluation of a novel service developed by a community pharmacy in Perth, Western Australia. The service represents collaboration between a nurse practitioner and community pharmacy staff in the management of mental health patients with metabolic risks. We applied practice service standards for Australian community pharmacies to develop an evaluation framework for this novel service. This was followed by semi-structured interviews with staff members at the study pharmacy to explore service processes and procedures. Descriptive analysis of interviews was supplemented with analysis of patients' biometric data. All data were evaluated against the developed framework. The evaluation framework comprised 13 process, 5 outcomes, and 11 quality indicators. Interview data from eight staff members and biometric data from 20 community-dwelling mental health patients taking antipsychotics were evaluated against the framework. Predominantly, patients were managed by the pharmacy's nurse practitioner, with medication management provided by pharmacists. Patients' biometric measurements comprised weight, blood pressure, blood glucose levels, lipid profiles and management of obesity, smoking, hypertension and diabetes. Positive outcomes observed in the patient data included weight loss, smoking cessation, and improved blood pressure, blood glucose and lipid levels. The developed framework allowed effective evaluation of the service, and may be applicable to other pharmacy services. The metabolic clinic met key process, quality and outcomes indicators. The positive patient outcomes may assist in securing further funding.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less

Pharmaceuticals in Tap Water: Human Health Risk Assessment and Proposed Monitoring Framework in China

PubMed Central

Leung, Ho Wing; Jin, Ling; Wei, Si; Tsui, Mirabelle Mei Po; Zhou, Bingsheng; Jiao, Liping; Cheung, Pak Chuen; Chun, Yiu Kan

2013-01-01

Background: Pharmaceuticals are known to contaminate tap water worldwide, but the relevant human health risks have not been assessed in China. Objectives: We monitored 32 pharmaceuticals in Chinese tap water and evaluated the life-long human health risks of exposure in order to provide information for future prioritization and risk management. Methods: We analyzed samples (n = 113) from 13 cities and compared detected concentrations with existing or newly-derived safety levels for assessing risk quotients (RQs) at different life stages, excluding the prenatal stage. Results: We detected 17 pharmaceuticals in 89% of samples, with most detectable concentrations (92%) at < 50 ng/L. Caffeine (median–maximum, nanograms per liter: 24.4–564), metronidazole (1.8–19.3), salicylic acid (16.6–41.2), clofibric acid (1.2–3.3), carbamazepine (1.3–6.7), and dimetridazole (6.9–14.7) were found in ≥ 20% of samples. Cities within the Yangtze River region and Guangzhou were regarded as contamination hot spots because of elevated levels and frequent positive detections. Of the 17 pharmaceuticals detected, 13 showed very low risk levels, but 4 (i.e., dimetridazole, thiamphenicol, sulfamethazine, and clarithromycin) were found to have at least one life-stage RQ ≥ 0.01, especially for the infant and child life stages, and should be considered of high priority for management. We propose an indicator-based monitoring framework for providing information for source identification, water treatment effectiveness, and water safety management in China. Conclusion: Chinese tap water is an additional route of human exposure to pharmaceuticals, particularly for dimetridazole, although the risk to human health is low based on current toxicity data. Pharmaceutical detection and application of the proposed monitoring framework can be used for water source protection and risk management in China and elsewhere. PMID:23665928

LOD BIM Element specification for Railway Turnout Systems Risk Mitigation using the Information Delivery Manual

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigante-Barrera, Ángel; Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; Ruikar, Darshan

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are complex systems designed using complex geometries and grades which makes them difficult to be managed in terms of risk prevention. This feature poses a substantial peril to rail users as it is considered a cause of derailment. In addition, derailment deals to financial losses due to operational downtimes and monetary compensations in case of death or injure. These are fundamental drivers to consider mitigating risks arising from poor risk management during design. Prevention through design (PtD) is a process that introduces tacit knowledge from industry professionals during the design process. There is evidence that Building Information Modelling (BIM) can help to mitigate risk since the inception of the project. BIM is considered an Information System (IS) were tacit knowledge can be stored and retrieved from a digital database making easy to take promptly decisions as information is ready to be analysed. BIM at the model element level entails working with 3D elements and embedded data, therefore adding a layer of complexity to the management of information along the different stages of the project and across different disciplines. In order to overcome this problem, the industry has created a framework for model progression specification named Level of Development (LOD). The paper presents an IDM based framework for design risk mitigation through code validation using the LOD. This effort resulted on risk datasets which describe graphically and non-graphically a rail turnout as the model progresses. Thus, permitting its inclusion within risk information systems. The assignment of an LOD construct to a set of data, requires specialised management and process related expertise. Furthermore, the selection of a set of LOD constructs requires a purpose based analysis. Therefore, a framework for LOD constructs implementation within the IDM for code checking is required for the industry to progress in this particular field.

NASA System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2012-01-01

This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) Risk Management team knowledge capture forums.. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of actionable key lessons learned in safety framework and concepts.

The adverse outcome pathway: A multifaceted framework supporting 21st century toxicology

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework serves as a knowledge assembly, interpretation, and communication tool designed to support the translation of pathway-specific mechanistic data into responses relevant to assessing and managing risks of chemicals to human health and the...

Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as an instrument of water resource management: a case study from a GIS-based Water Safety Plan in Germany.

PubMed

Wienand, I; Nolting, U; Kistemann, T

2009-01-01

Following international developments and the new WHO Drinking Water Guidelines (WHO 2004) a process-orientated concept for risk, monitoring and incident management has been developed and implemented in this study. The concept will be reviewed with special consideration for resource protection (first barrier of the multi-barrier system) and in turn, for the Water Safety Plan (WSP) which adequately considers-beyond the current framework of legal requirements-possible new hygienic-microbiologically relevant risks (especially emerging pathogens) for the drinking water supply. The development of a WSP within the framework of risk, monitoring and incident management includes the application of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). In the present study, GIS was used for visualization and spatial analysis in decisive steps in the WSP. The detailed process of GIS-supported implementation included the identification of local participants and their tasks and interactions as an essential part of risk management. A detailed ecological investigation of drinking water conditions in the catchment area was conducted in addition to hazard identification, risk assessment and the monitoring of control measures. The main task of our study was to find out in which steps of the WSP the implementation of GIS could be integrated as a useful, and perhaps even an essential tool.

75 FR 68224 - Safety Management Systems for Part 121 Certificate Holders

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... the general framework for an organization-wide safety management approach to air carrier operations... System? An SMS is an organization-wide approach to managing safety risk and assuring the effectiveness of... under 14 CFR part 121 to develop and implement a safety management system (SMS) to improve the safety of...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, AND WHY THEY ARE NEEDED

EPA Science Inventory

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for int...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Understanding Acceptable Level of Risk: Incorporating the Economic Cost of Under-Managing Invasive Species.

PubMed

Davidson, Alisha D; Hewitt, Chad L; Kashian, Donna R

2015-01-01

Management of nonindigenous species includes prevention, early detection and rapid response and control. Early detection and rapid response depend on prioritizing and monitoring sites at risk for arrival or secondary spread of nonindigenous species. Such monitoring efforts require sufficient biosecurity budgets to be effective and meet management or policy directives for reduced risk of introduction. Such consideration of risk reduction is rarely considered, however. Here, we review the concepts of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and associated costs with respect to nonindigenous species and present a framework for aligning risk reduction priorities with available biosecurity resources. We conclude that available biosecurity resources may be insufficient to attain stated and desired risk reduction. This outcome highlights the need to consider policy and management directives when beginning a biosecurity program to determine the feasibility of risk reduction goals, given available resources.

Risky business.

PubMed

Baram, M

1996-10-01

In prior studies by high-level commissions, emphasis was given to improving the scientific basis and institutional procedures for risk assessment and risk regulation within existing statutory frameworks. Recommendations have led to slow but steady progress. This study is considerably different. It emphasizes a public health approach for efficient use of resources in a new flexible framework for risk management, reductionist approaches to risk assessment and characterization, increased public involvement, and various methods for managing such public involvement. It provides a mix of aspirations and concepts, procedures, and "shop floor rules" for putting the new system of risk management into practice. Concerns remain, however, that bright lines and other rules are at odds with the report's professed aspirations for meaningful public involvement; that ad hoc institutional arrangements for putting each risk in a situational context may not be an efficient use of public and private resources; that techniques for managing stakeholder involvement will be seen as manipulative and may even increase public mistrust and anxieties about risk; and that reductionism by the regulatory clients of risk assessment could diminish progress in the environmental health sciences. Says Lucier, "The goal of risk assessment should be to prevent environmentally or occupationally mediated diseases or injury. This point is not made sufficiently clear in the commission's report. Nevertheless, the report does an admirable job of attempting to merge science, common sense, public perception, public health, economics, and stakeholder interests into a regulatory policy strategy." He continues, "The merging of these diverse inputs will never be easy and should never be overly prescriptive. The complete integration of all relevant information into the risk assessment and risk management process will require greater reliance on expert judgment to make decisions that are timely, that are based on appropriate peer review, that are consistent with public health priorities, that do not create unnecessary regulatory burdens, and that are understandable by the public." The commission's report provides an alternative vision of risk management that incorporates popular political and social trends. Thorough evaluation of the report's recommendations will, at the very least, focus scrutiny on current risk assessment and risk management practices and perhaps produce better solutions.

Risky business.

PubMed Central

Baram, M

1996-01-01

In prior studies by high-level commissions, emphasis was given to improving the scientific basis and institutional procedures for risk assessment and risk regulation within existing statutory frameworks. Recommendations have led to slow but steady progress. This study is considerably different. It emphasizes a public health approach for efficient use of resources in a new flexible framework for risk management, reductionist approaches to risk assessment and characterization, increased public involvement, and various methods for managing such public involvement. It provides a mix of aspirations and concepts, procedures, and "shop floor rules" for putting the new system of risk management into practice. Concerns remain, however, that bright lines and other rules are at odds with the report's professed aspirations for meaningful public involvement; that ad hoc institutional arrangements for putting each risk in a situational context may not be an efficient use of public and private resources; that techniques for managing stakeholder involvement will be seen as manipulative and may even increase public mistrust and anxieties about risk; and that reductionism by the regulatory clients of risk assessment could diminish progress in the environmental health sciences. Says Lucier, "The goal of risk assessment should be to prevent environmentally or occupationally mediated diseases or injury. This point is not made sufficiently clear in the commission's report. Nevertheless, the report does an admirable job of attempting to merge science, common sense, public perception, public health, economics, and stakeholder interests into a regulatory policy strategy." He continues, "The merging of these diverse inputs will never be easy and should never be overly prescriptive. The complete integration of all relevant information into the risk assessment and risk management process will require greater reliance on expert judgment to make decisions that are timely, that are based on appropriate peer review, that are consistent with public health priorities, that do not create unnecessary regulatory burdens, and that are understandable by the public." The commission's report provides an alternative vision of risk management that incorporates popular political and social trends. Thorough evaluation of the report's recommendations will, at the very least, focus scrutiny on current risk assessment and risk management practices and perhaps produce better solutions. PMID:8930543

Proposing a Universal Framework for Resilience: Optimizing Risk and Combating Human Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Arunima

2017-04-01

In the recent years we have seen a massive impact of loss created to urban settlements and critical infrastructure as a result of disasters. The disaster risk associates itself vulnerabilities and many complexities which can disrupt the functioning of human society. The uncertain loss created by disasters can present unforeseeable risk which remain unaccounted to human understanding. It is imperative to note that human urbanization and development is correlated with human vulnerabilities and challenges posed by disasters. Disaster risks are aggravated by improper planning of cities, weak framework for urban governance and regulatory regimes and lack of equalities amongst the citizens. The international agenda on disaster risk reduction talks about increasing losses due to disasters associated with development and urbanization. The United Nations announced that the year 1990 was the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. In relation to this, the "Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action" was adopted at the first United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission coordinated the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005 where the Hyogo Framework for Action was adopted. The Hyogo Framework for Action: Building the resilience of communities to disaster was adopted by 168 nations after the massive loss caused by Indian ocean tsunami in 2005. The Hyogo Framework proposes to focus on implementation of risk and reliability system to shield disasters, proposes global scientific and community platform for disaster prevention and mitigation etc. The early warning system and its importance as an effective tool for reduction of human vulnerabilities for disaster management was majorly emphasized. It is imperative to highlight that resilience framework is important in order to minimize cost of disruption caused to critical infrastructure and to strengthen and optimize the decision making skill and platform for a better sustainable society. The resilience framework provides a cross-sector and multi-level analysis to tackle the vulnerabilities which can be caused to essential utilities like power, water, transport and various machineries that are essential for human sustainability. The direction of resilience framework focuses on prevention of damage and disruption of disaster, mitigate the loss caused to human society and provide the best response for disaster resilience. Thus, the basic pillars which are important for the implementation of resilience is proper governance framework and transparency which takes into account various cost and risk analysis. Thus a common and universal framework for resilience is the main requirement for mass accessibility. The aim of resilience framework focuses on universal adaptability, coherence and validation. A mixed method analysis has been undertaken in this research paper which focuses on the following issues: • Legal, Institutional and community framework for integrating resilience framework of global north and global south. • Spatial as well as statistical analysis to structuralize disaster risk and resilient framework for disaster management. • Early warning system and emergency response in a comparative scale to analyse the various models of risk and resilience framework implemented in USA, China, Nepal and India for proposing an integrated resilience strategy.

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Shelhamer, M.; Canga, M.

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during exploration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modeled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified, however, this has been in an ad hoc fashion. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioral, vehicle, and organizational aspects of the exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. We will discuss how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information is allowing us to identify and visualize connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized way. We will discuss the applications of the visualizations and insights to research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

2014-05-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study through the project "Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador", funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

TIUPAM: A Framework for Trustworthiness-Centric Information Sharing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shouhuai; Sandhu, Ravi; Bertino, Elisa

Information is essential to decision making. Nowadays, decision makers are often overwhelmed with large volumes of information, some of which may be inaccurate, incorrect, inappropriate, misleading, or maliciously introduced. With the advocated shift of information sharing paradigm from “need to know” to “need to share” this problem will be further compounded. This poses the challenge of achieving assured information sharing so that decision makers can always get and utilize the up-to-date information for making the right decisions, despite the existence of malicious attacks and without breaching privacy of honest participants. As a first step towards answering this challenge this paper proposes a systematic framework we call TIUPAM, which stands for “Trustworthiness-centric Identity, Usage, Provenance, and Attack Management.” The framework is centered at the need of trustworthiness and risk management for decision makers, and supported by four key components: identity management, usage management, provenance management and attack management. We explore the characterization of both the core functions and the supporting components in the TIUPAM framework, which may guide the design and realization of concrete schemes in the future.

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Review of asset hierarchy criticality assessment and risk analysis practices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

The MTA NYC Transit (NYCT) has begun an enterprise-wide Asset Management Improvement Program (AMIP). In : 2012, NYCT developed an executive-level concept of operations that defined a new asset management : framework following a systems engineering ap...

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

A framework for identifying and managing risk in the operating theatre.

PubMed

Simpson, A

1995-09-01

There is much advice available about the development of risk management strategies within the NHS. There are booklets and magazines and there are many management consultancies willing to give advice on the development of strategies. NATN is also working on the development of advice on risk management within the operating theatre department and a document should be available at Congress this year. It was felt, however, that it may be useful to hear a little about the specific experience of the development of a strategy within one operating theatre area and Andrea Simpson, Directorate Nurse Manager for Clinical Services, West Lothian NHS Trust has recorded the development within the directorate. There has been some additional comment from the Director of Nursing and Quality within the Trust, Libby Campbell, who is responsible for risk management there.

A review and framework for understanding the potential impact of poor solid waste management on health in developing countries.

PubMed

Ziraba, Abdhalah K; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Mberu, Blessing

2016-01-01

The increase in solid waste generated per capita in Africa has not been accompanied by a commensurate growth in the capacity and funding to manage it. It is reported that less than 30% of urban waste in developing countries is collected and disposed appropriately. The implications of poorly managed waste on health are numerous and depend on the nature of the waste, individuals exposed, duration of exposure and availability of interventions for those exposed. To present a framework for understanding the linkages between poor solid waste management, exposure and associated adverse health outcomes. The framework will aid understanding of the relationships, interlinkages and identification of the potential points for intervention. Development of the framework was informed by a review of literature on solid waste management policies, practices and its impact on health in developing countries. A configurative synthesis of literature was applied to develop the framework. Several iterations of the framework were reviewed by experts in the field. Each linkage and outcomes are described in detail as outputs of this study. The resulting framework identifies groups of people at a heightened risk of exposure and the potential health consequences. Using the iceberg metaphor, the framework illustrates the pathways and potential burden of ill-health related to solid waste that is hidden but rapidly unfolding with our inaction. The existing evidence on the linkage between poor solid waste management and adverse health outcomes calls to action by all stakeholders in understanding, prioritizing, and addressing the issue of solid waste in our midst to ensure that our environment and health are preserved. A resulting framework developed in this study presents a clearer picture of the linkages between poor solid waste management and could guide research, policy and action.

Phase polyphenism and preventative locust management.

PubMed

Sword, Gregory A; Lecoq, Michel; Simpson, Stephen J

2010-08-01

The ecology of phase polyphenism plays a major role in locust swarm formation. We describe how recent advances in the understanding of phase polyphenism can be combined with existing management approaches as part of a preventative Desert locust management strategy. We start with a brief overview of phase polyphenism with particular emphasis on the role that resource distribution patterns play in the process of locust phase change. We then review current perspective on preventative locust management, and conclude by proposing a framework for quantitatively assessing the risk that phase change will occur in local locust populations. Importantly, the data required to implement this framework can be readily collected with little additional effort or cost just by slightly modifying locust habitat survey protocols that are already in operation. Incorporating gregarization risk assessment into existing preventative management strategies stands to make a considerable contribution toward realizing sustainable goals of reductions in the pesticide, manpower and financial support necessary to combat Desert locust upsurges, outbreaks and ultimately plagues. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management of hazardous substances in a circular economy.

PubMed

Bodar, Charles; Spijker, Job; Lijzen, Johannes; Waaijers-van der Loop, Susanne; Luit, Richard; Heugens, Evelyn; Janssen, Martien; Wassenaar, Pim; Traas, Theo

2018-04-15

The ambitions for a circular economy are high and unambiguous, but day-to-day experience shows that the transition still has many difficulties to overcome. One of the current hurdles is the presence of hazardous substances in waste streams that enter or re-enter into the environment or the technosphere. The key question is: do we have the appropriate risk management tools to control any risks that might arise from the re-using and recycling of materials? We present some recent cases that illustrate current practice and complexity in the risk management of newly-formed circular economy chains. We also highlight how separate legal frameworks are still disconnected from each other in these cases, and how circular economy initiatives interlink with the European REACH regulation. Furthermore, we introduce a novel scheme describing how to decide whether a(n)(additional) risk assessment is necessary with regard to the re-use of materials containing hazardous substances. Finally, we present our initial views on new concepts for the fundamental integration of sustainability and safety aspects. These concepts should be the building blocks for the near future shifts in both policy frameworks and voluntary initiatives that support a sound circular economy transition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

2018-04-01

Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Marinucci, Gino D.; Luber, George; Uejio, Christopher K.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to have several adverse health impacts. Managing these risks to public health requires an iterative approach. As with many risk management strategies related to climate change, using modeling to project impacts, engaging a wide range of stakeholders, and regularly updating models and risk management plans with new information—hallmarks of adaptive management—are considered central tenets of effective public health adaptation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a framework, entitled Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, to facilitate this process for public health agencies. Its five steps are laid out here. Following the steps laid out in BRACE will enable an agency to use the best available science to project likely climate change health impacts in a given jurisdiction and prioritize interventions. Adopting BRACE will also reinforce public health’s established commitment to evidence-based practice and institutional learning, both of which will be central to successfully engaging the significant new challenges that climate change presents. PMID:24991665

Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergion, Viktor; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Åström, Johan; Lindhe, Andreas; Sörén, Kaisa; Rosén, Lars

2017-01-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases are of great concern to drinking water producers and can give rise to substantial costs to the society. The World Health Organisation promotes an approach where the emphasis is on mitigating risks close to the contamination source. In order to handle microbial risks efficiently, there is a need for systematic risk management. In this paper we present a framework for microbial risk management of drinking water systems. The framework incorporates cost-benefit analysis as a decision support method. The hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was set up for the Stäket catchment area in Sweden, was used to simulate the effects of four different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. The modelling results showed that the two mitigation measures that resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) reduction of Cryptosporidium spp. and Escherichia coli concentrations were a vegetative filter strip linked to cropland and improved treatment (by one Log10 unit) at the wastewater treatment plants. The mitigation measure with a vegetative filter strip linked to grazing areas resulted in a significant reduction of Cryptosporidium spp., but not of E. coli concentrations. The mitigation measure with enhancing the removal efficiency of all on-site wastewater treatment systems (total removal of 2 Log10 units) did not achieve any significant reduction of E. coli or Cryptosporidium spp. concentrations. The SWAT model was useful when characterising the effect of different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. Hydrological modelling implemented within an appropriate risk management framework is a key decision support element as it identifies the most efficient alternative for microbial risk reduction.

Outcomes-Balanced Framework for Emergency Management: A Predictive Model for Preparedness

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

Management Total Quality Management (TQM) was developed by W. Edwards Deming in the post-World War II reconstruction period in Japan. It ushered in a...FIGURES Figure 1. From Total Quality Management Principles ....................................................30 Figure 2. Outcomes Logic Model (After...THIRA Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment TQM Total Quality Management UTL Universal Task List xiv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS German

Shoulder dystocia: prediction and management.

PubMed

Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

2016-01-01

Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-11-11

Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research institutions and organizations leaves populations poorly prepared to cope with changing health burdens. Risk-centered, systems approaches can facilitate understanding of the complex interactions and dependencies across environmental, social, and human systems. This understanding is needed to formulate effective interventions targeting socio-environmental factors that are as important for determining health burdens as are individual risk factors.

Development of perspective-based water management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins.

PubMed

van Deursen, W P A; Middelkoop, H

2005-01-01

Water management is surrounded by uncertainties. Water management thus has to answer the question: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? This paper describes the application of the perspectives method on water management in the Rhine and Meuse basins. In the perspectives method, a structured framework to analyse water management strategies under uncertainty is provided. Various strategies are clustered in perspectives according to their underlying assumptions. This framework allows for an analysis of current water management strategies, but also allows for evaluation of the robustness of proposed future water strategies. It becomes clear that no water management strategy is superior to the others, but that inherent choices on risk acceptance and costs make a real political dilemma which will not be solved by further optimisation.

Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

2013-04-01

Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times. Unusual patterns associated with special events can also be modelled and the framework is fully volume preserving. Outputs from the model are gridded population surfaces for the specified time slice, either for total population or by sub-groups (e.g. age). Software to implement the models (SurfaceBuilder247) has been developed and pre-processed layers for typical time slices for England and Wales in 2001 and 2006 are available for UK academic purposes. The outputs and modelling framework from the Pop24/7 programme provide significant opportunities for risk management applications. For estimates of mid- to long-term cumulative population exposure to hazards, such as in flood risk mapping, populations can be produced for numerous time slices and integrated with flood models. For applications in emergency response/ management, time-specific population models can be used as seeds for agent-based models or other response/behaviour models. Estimates for sub-groups of the population also permit exploration of vulnerability through space and time. This paper outlines the requirements for effective spatio-temporal population models for risk management. It then describes the Pop24/7 framework and illustrates its potential for risk management through presentation of examples from natural and anthropogenic hazard applications. The paper concludes by highlighting key challenges for future research in this area.

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

PubMed

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

75 FR 71397 - Regulations Establishing and Governing the Duties of Swap Dealers and Major Swap Participants

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-23

... risks associated with the use of models to derive market valuations or otherwise calculate or evaluate... swap dealers and major swap participants registered with the Commission with regard to: Risk management...) \\3\\ to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and...

Securing Location Services Infrastructures: Practical Criteria for Application Developers and Solutions Architects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karamanian, Andre

2013-01-01

This qualitative, exploratory, normative study examined the security and privacy of location based services in mobile applications. This study explored risk, and controls to implement privacy and security. This study was addressed using components of the FIPS Risk Management Framework. This study found that risk to location information was…

Development of a preliminary relative risk model for evaluating regional ecological conditions in the Delaware River Estuary, USA.

PubMed

Iannuzzi, Timothy J; Durda, Judi L; Preziosi, Damian V; Ludwig, David F; Stahl, Ralph G; DeSantis, Amanda A; Hoke, Robert A

2010-01-01

Effective environmental management and restoration of urbanized systems such as the Delaware River Estuary requires a holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the watershed, both historical and ongoing. To that end, it is important to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the management process and to develop a system for sharing of scientific data and information, as well as effective technical tools for evaluating and disseminating the data needed to make management decisions. In this study, we describe a preliminary assessment that was undertaken to evaluate the relative risks for the variety of stressors currently operating within the Delaware Estuary using a relative risk model (RRM) framework. This model was constructed using existing data and information on the ecological conditions and stressors in the main-stem Delaware River below the head of tide at Trenton, New Jersey, USA. A large database was developed with pertinent data from a variety of library, scientific, and regulatory sources. Data were compiled, reviewed, and characterized before development of the Estuary-specific RRM. Our primary goals and objectives in developing this preliminary RRM for the Estuary were to 1) determine if the RRM framework can be adapted to a large complex estuarine system such as the Delaware River, 2) identify the issues associated with adapting the model framework to the various management issues and regional areas/habitats of the River, 3) help identify data needs and potential refinements that might be needed to more specifically quantify relative stressor risks in various areas and habitats of the Estuary to better inform future management goals/actions by Stakeholders. The key conclusions of our preliminary assessment are 1) a diverse suite of stressors is likely affecting the ecological conditions of the Delaware Estuary, 2) chemical (toxicants/contaminants) and physical (sedimentation, habitat loss) stressors were found to be on par with regards to their ranking, and 3) the RRM, in its current form, made it difficult to effectively balance the inequality in the sizes of the study subareas considered in the assessment. Management objectives and related research activities should focus on collecting the necessary data and information to further refine the RRM and assess the relative impacts of these stressors at various scales in the Estuary. By having such a framework and tool available, we believe that stakeholders within the Delaware River watershed will be able to make more informed and risk-based management decisions regarding restoration options for the Estuary.

Software Reviews Since Acquisition Reform - The Artifact Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Risk Management OLD NEW Slide 13Acquisition of Software Intensive Systems 2004 – Peter Hantos Single, basic software paradigm Single processor Low...software risk mitigation related trade-offs must be done together Integral Software Engineering Activities Process Maturity and Quality Frameworks Quality

Framework for Placement of BMPs in Urban Watersheds (2008)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Urban Watershed Management Branch is responsible for developing and demonstrating methods to manage the risk to public health, property and the environment from wet-weather flows (WWF) in urban watersheds. The activities are primarily a...

Occupational health management: an audit tool.

PubMed

Shelmerdine, L; Williams, N

2003-03-01

Organizations must manage occupational health risks in the workplace and the UK Health & Safety Executive (HSE) has published guidance on successful health and safety management. This paper describes a method of using the published guidance to audit the management of occupational health and safety, first at an organizational level and, secondly, to audit an occupational health service provider's role in the management of health risks. The paper outlines the legal framework in the UK for health risk management and describes the development and use of a tool for qualitative auditing of the efficiency, effectiveness and reliability of occupational health service provision within an organization. The audit tool is presented as a question set and the paper concludes with discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of using this tool, and recommendations on its use.

Shoulder Dystocia: Prediction and Management

PubMed Central

Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

2016-01-01

Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury. PMID:26901875

Simulating future residential property losses from wildfire in Flathead County, Montana: Chapter 1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prato, Tony; Paveglio, Travis B; Barnett, Yan; Silverstein, Robin; Hardy, Michael; Keane, Robert; Loehman, Rachel A.; Clark, Anthony; Fagre, Daniel B.; Venn, Tyron; Stockmann, Keith

2014-01-01

Wildfire damages to private residences in the United States and elsewhere have increased as a result of expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and other factors. Understanding this unwelcome trend requires analytical frameworks that simulate how various interacting social, economic, and biophysical factors influence those damages. A methodological framework is developed for simulating expected residential property losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], which is a probabilistic monetary measure of wildfire risk to residential properties in the WUI. E(RLW) is simulated for Flathead County, Montana for five, 10-year subperiods covering the period 2010-2059, under various assumptions about future climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management. Results show statistically significant increases in the spatial extent of WUI properties, the number of residential structures at risk from wildfire, and E(RLW) over the 50-year evaluation period for both the county and smaller subareas (i.e., neighborhoods and parcels). The E(RLW) simulation framework presented here advances the field of wildfire risk assessment by providing a finer-scale tool that incorporates a set of dynamic, interacting processes. The framework can be applied using other scenarios for climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management, and in other areas.

Social amplification of wildfire risk: The role of social interactions and information sources

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Katherine L. Dickinson; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores

2013-01-01

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire-prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social...

Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chueng, Kar-Ming

2008-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

Integrating legal liabilities in nanomanufacturing risk management.

PubMed

Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-07

Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions.

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

2016-11-01

Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

Error management for musicians: an interdisciplinary conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Kruse-Weber, Silke; Parncutt, Richard

2014-01-01

Musicians tend to strive for flawless performance and perfection, avoiding errors at all costs. Dealing with errors while practicing or performing is often frustrating and can lead to anger and despair, which can explain musicians’ generally negative attitude toward errors and the tendency to aim for flawless learning in instrumental music education. But even the best performances are rarely error-free, and research in general pedagogy and psychology has shown that errors provide useful information for the learning process. Research in instrumental pedagogy is still neglecting error issues; the benefits of risk management (before the error) and error management (during and after the error) are still underestimated. It follows that dealing with errors is a key aspect of music practice at home, teaching, and performance in public. And yet, to be innovative, or to make their performance extraordinary, musicians need to risk errors. Currently, most music students only acquire the ability to manage errors implicitly – or not at all. A more constructive, creative, and differentiated culture of errors would balance error tolerance and risk-taking against error prevention in ways that enhance music practice and music performance. The teaching environment should lay the foundation for the development of such an approach. In this contribution, we survey recent research in aviation, medicine, economics, psychology, and interdisciplinary decision theory that has demonstrated that specific error-management training can promote metacognitive skills that lead to better adaptive transfer and better performance skills. We summarize how this research can be applied to music, and survey-relevant research that is specifically tailored to the needs of musicians, including generic guidelines for risk and error management in music teaching and performance. On this basis, we develop a conceptual framework for risk management that can provide orientation for further music education and musicians at all levels. PMID:25120501

Error management for musicians: an interdisciplinary conceptual framework.

PubMed

Kruse-Weber, Silke; Parncutt, Richard

2014-01-01

Musicians tend to strive for flawless performance and perfection, avoiding errors at all costs. Dealing with errors while practicing or performing is often frustrating and can lead to anger and despair, which can explain musicians' generally negative attitude toward errors and the tendency to aim for flawless learning in instrumental music education. But even the best performances are rarely error-free, and research in general pedagogy and psychology has shown that errors provide useful information for the learning process. Research in instrumental pedagogy is still neglecting error issues; the benefits of risk management (before the error) and error management (during and after the error) are still underestimated. It follows that dealing with errors is a key aspect of music practice at home, teaching, and performance in public. And yet, to be innovative, or to make their performance extraordinary, musicians need to risk errors. Currently, most music students only acquire the ability to manage errors implicitly - or not at all. A more constructive, creative, and differentiated culture of errors would balance error tolerance and risk-taking against error prevention in ways that enhance music practice and music performance. The teaching environment should lay the foundation for the development of such an approach. In this contribution, we survey recent research in aviation, medicine, economics, psychology, and interdisciplinary decision theory that has demonstrated that specific error-management training can promote metacognitive skills that lead to better adaptive transfer and better performance skills. We summarize how this research can be applied to music, and survey-relevant research that is specifically tailored to the needs of musicians, including generic guidelines for risk and error management in music teaching and performance. On this basis, we develop a conceptual framework for risk management that can provide orientation for further music education and musicians at all levels.

"And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!" - A unifying framework for marine environmental management.

PubMed

Elliott, M; Burdon, D; Atkins, J P; Borja, A; Cormier, R; de Jonge, V N; Turner, R K

2017-05-15

The marine environment is a complex system formed by interactions between ecological structure and functioning, physico-chemical processes and socio-economic systems. An increase in competing marine uses and users requires a holistic approach to marine management which considers the environmental, economic and societal impacts of all activities. If managed sustainably, the marine environment will deliver a range of ecosystem services which lead to benefits for society. In order to understand the complexity of the system, the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) approach has long been a valuable problem-structuring framework used to assess the causes, consequences and responses to change in a holistic way. Despite DPSIR being used for a long time, there is still confusion over the definition of its terms and so to be appropriate for current marine management, we contend that this confusion needs to be addressed. Our viewpoint advocates that DPSIR should be extended to DAPSI(W)R(M) (pronounced dap-see-worm) in which Drivers of basic human needs require Activities which lead to Pressures. The Pressures are the mechanisms of State change on the natural system which then leads to Impacts (on human Welfare). Those then require Responses (as Measures). Furthermore, because of the complexity of any managed sea area in terms of multiple Activities, there is the need for a linked-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework, and then the connectivity between marine ecosystems and ecosystems in the catchment and further at sea, requires an interlinked, nested-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework to reflect the continuum between adjacent ecosystems. Finally, the unifying framework for integrated marine management is completed by encompassing ecosystem structure and functioning, ecosystem services and societal benefits. Hence, DAPSI(W)R(M) links the socio-ecological system of the effects of changes to the natural system on the human uses and benefits of the marine system. However, to deliver these sustainably in the light of human activities requires a Risk Assessment and Risk Management framework; the ISO-compliant Bow-Tie method is used here as an example. Finally, to secure ecosystem health and economic benefits such as Blue Growth, successful, adaptive and sustainable marine management Responses (as Measures) are delivered using the 10-tenets, a set of facets covering all management disciplines and approaches. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of human health and performance success during exploration missions as well as to maintain the subsequent long-term health of the crew. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Clinical Adoption of Prognostic Biomarkers The Case for Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P.; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V.; Butler, Javed

2013-01-01

The recent explosion of scientific knowledge and technological progress has led to the discovery of a large array of circulating molecules commonly referred to as biomarkers. Biomarkers in heart failure research have been used to provide pathophysiological insights, aid in establishing the diagnosis, refine prognosis, guide management, and target treatment. However, beyond diagnostic applications of natriuretic peptides, there are currently few widely recognized applications for biomarkers in heart failure. This represents a remarkable discordance considering the number of molecules that have been shown to correlate with outcomes, refine risk prediction, or track disease severity in heart failure in the past decade. In this article, we use a broad framework proposed for cardiovascular risk markers to summarize the current state of biomarker development for heart failure patients. We utilize this framework to identify the challenges of biomarker adoption for risk prediction, disease management, and treatment selection for heart failure and suggest considerations for future research. PMID:22824105

Proposal for a Security Management in Cloud Computing for Health Care

PubMed Central

Dzombeta, Srdan; Brandis, Knud

2014-01-01

Cloud computing is actually one of the most popular themes of information systems research. Considering the nature of the processed information especially health care organizations need to assess and treat specific risks according to cloud computing in their information security management system. Therefore, in this paper we propose a framework that includes the most important security processes regarding cloud computing in the health care sector. Starting with a framework of general information security management processes derived from standards of the ISO 27000 family the most important information security processes for health care organizations using cloud computing will be identified considering the main risks regarding cloud computing and the type of information processed. The identified processes will help a health care organization using cloud computing to focus on the most important ISMS processes and establish and operate them at an appropriate level of maturity considering limited resources. PMID:24701137

Proposal for a security management in cloud computing for health care.

PubMed

Haufe, Knut; Dzombeta, Srdan; Brandis, Knud

2014-01-01

Cloud computing is actually one of the most popular themes of information systems research. Considering the nature of the processed information especially health care organizations need to assess and treat specific risks according to cloud computing in their information security management system. Therefore, in this paper we propose a framework that includes the most important security processes regarding cloud computing in the health care sector. Starting with a framework of general information security management processes derived from standards of the ISO 27000 family the most important information security processes for health care organizations using cloud computing will be identified considering the main risks regarding cloud computing and the type of information processed. The identified processes will help a health care organization using cloud computing to focus on the most important ISMS processes and establish and operate them at an appropriate level of maturity considering limited resources.

A formal framework of scenario creation and analysis of extreme hydrological events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, D.

2007-12-01

We are presenting a formal framework for a hydrological risk analysis. Different measures of risk will be introduced, such as average annual loss or occurrence exceedance probability. These are important measures for e.g. insurance companies to determine the cost of insurance. One key aspect of investigating the potential consequences of extreme hydrological events (floods and draughts) is the creation of meteorological scenarios that reflect realistic spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation that also have correct local statistics. 100,000 years of these meteorological scenarios are used in a calibrated rainfall-runoff-flood-loss-risk model to produce flood and draught events that have never been observed. The results of this hazard model are statistically analyzed and linked to socio-economic data and vulnerability functions to show the impact of severe flood events. We are showing results from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Flood Model to introduce this formal framework.

Development of an effective risk management system in a teaching hospital.

PubMed

Adibi, Hossein; Khalesi, Nader; Ravaghi, Hamid; Jafari, Mahdi; Jeddian, Ali Reza

2012-09-21

Unsafe health care provision is a main cause of increased mortality rate amongst hospitalized patients all over the world. A system approach to medical error and its reduction is crucial that is defined by clinical and administrative activities undertaken to identify, evaluate, and reduce the risk of injury. The aim of this study was to develop and implement a risk management system in a large teaching hospital in Iran, especially of the basis of WHO guidelines and patient safety context. WHO draft guideline and patient safety reports from different countries were reviewed for defining acceptable framework of risk management system. Also current situation of mentioned hospital in safety matter and dimensions of patient safety culture was evaluated using HSOPSC questionnaire of AHRQ. With adjustment of guidelines and hospital status, the conceptual framework was developed and next it was validated in expert panel. The members of expert panel were selected according to their role and functions and also their experiences in risk management and patient safety issues. The validated framework consisted of designating a leader and coordinator core, defining communications, and preparing the infrastructure for patient safety education and culture-building. That was developed on the basis of some values and commitments and included reactive and proactive approaches. The findings of reporting activities demonstrated that at least 3.6 percent of hospitalized patients have experienced adverse events and 5.3 percent of all deaths in the hospital related with patient safety problems. Beside the average score of 12 dimensions of patient safety culture was 46.2 percent that was considerably low. The "non-punitive responses to error" had lowest positive score with 21.2 percent. It is of paramount importance for all health organizations to lay necessary foundations in order to identify safety risks and improve the quality of care. Inadequate participation of staff in education, reporting and analyzing, underreporting and uselessness of aggregated data, limitation of human and financial resources, punitive directions and management challenges for solutions were the main executive problems which could affect the effectiveness of system.

ERM for Health Care Organizations: An Economic Enterprise Risk Management Innovation Program (E2RMhealth care).

PubMed

da Silva Etges, Ana Paula Beck; Grenon, Veronique; de Souza, Joana Siqueira; Kliemann Neto, Francisco José; Felix, Elaine Aparecida

2018-05-14

In recent years, health care organizations have looked to enterprise risk management (ERM) for novel systems to obtain more accurate data on which to base risk strategies. This study proposes a conceptual ERM framework specifically designed for health care organizations. We explore how hospitals in the United States and Brazil are structuring and implementing ERM processes within their management structure. This study incorporates interviews with 15 chief risk officers (8 from the United States and 7 from Brazil) with qualitative data analysis using NVivo (QSR International software). The interviews confirm that adopting ERM for health care organizations has gained momentum and become a priority, and that the demand for risk economic assessment orientation is common among health care risk managers. We propose an ERM model for health care (Economic Enterprise Risk Management in Health Care) divided into four maturity levels and complemented by an implementation timeline. The model is accompanied by guidelines to orient the gradual implementation of ERM, including orientation to perform risk economic assessment. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

PubMed

Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

2 CFR 200.205 - Federal awarding agency review of risk posed by applicants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... cooperative agreements, the Federal awarding agency must have in place a framework for evaluating the risks... 2 Grants and Agreements 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Federal awarding agency review of risk posed by applicants. 200.205 Section 200.205 Grants and Agreements Office of Management and Budget Guidance...

ÉquiNanos: innovative team for nanoparticle risk management.

PubMed

Nadeau, Sylvie; Bouchard, Michèle; Debia, Maximilien; DeMarcellis-Warin, Nathalie; Hallé, Stéphane; Songmene, Victor; Therrien, Marie-Christine; Wilkinson, Kevin; Ateme-Nguema, Barthélémy; Dufour, Geneviève; Dufresne, André; Fatisson, Julien; Haddad, Sami; Hadioui, Madjid; Kouam, Jules; Morency, François; Tardif, Robert; Viens, Martin; Weichenthal, Scott; Viau, Claude; Camus, Michel

2013-01-01

Interactions between nanoparticles (NP), humans and the environment are not fully understood yet. Moreover, frameworks aiming at protecting human health have not been adapted to NP but are nonetheless applied to NP-related activities. Consequently, business organizations currently have to deal with NP-related risks despite the lack of a proven effective method of risk-management. To respond to these concerns and fulfill the needs of populations and industries, ÉquiNanos was created as a largely interdisciplinary provincial research team in Canada. ÉquiNanos consists of eight platforms with different areas of action, from adaptive decision-aid tool to public and legal governance, while including biological monitoring. ÉquiNanos resources aim at responding to the concerns of the Quebec nanotechnology industry and public health authorities. Our mandate is to understand the impact of NP on human health in order to protect the population against all potential risks emerging from these high-priority and rapidly expanding innovative technologies. In this paper by Canadian authors an important framework is discussed with the goal of acquiring more detailed information and establishing an infrastructure to evaluate the interaction between nanoparticles and living organisms, with the ultimate goal of safety and risk management of the rapidly growing fields of nanotechnology-based biological applications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aligning smoke management with ecological and public health goals

Treesearch

Jonathan W. Long; Leland W. Tarnay; Malcolm P. North

2017-01-01

Past and current forest management affects wildland fire smoke impacts on downwind human populations. However, mismatches between the scale of benefits and risks make it difficult to proactively manage wildland fires to promote both ecological and public health. Building on recent literature and advances in modeling smoke and health effects, we outline a framework to...

A DRDC Management Accountability Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

51 A.2 Cultural Theory: Risk, Blame and Good Governance ................................................. 53 A.3...the MAF. These elements guide good management, enclosing the elements required to make good decisions. 18 In essence, the elements focus on the...of these areas.20 As a guide to good management practices, the elements focus on organizational capacity and capability within a department 21

mHealth and Mobile Medical Apps: A Framework to Assess Risk and Promote Safer Use

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The use of mobile medical apps by clinicians and others has grown considerably since the introduction of mobile phones. Medical apps offer clinicians the ability to access medical knowledge and patient data at the point of care, but several studies have highlighted apps that could compromise patient safety and are potentially dangerous. This article identifies a range of different kinds of risks that medical apps can contribute to and important contextual variables that can modify these risks. We have also developed a simple generic risk framework that app users, developers, and other stakeholders can use to assess the likely risks posed by a specific app in a specific context. This should help app commissioners, developers, and users to manage risks and improve patient safety. PMID:25223398

mHealth and mobile medical Apps: a framework to assess risk and promote safer use.

PubMed

Lewis, Thomas Lorchan; Wyatt, Jeremy C

2014-09-15

The use of mobile medical apps by clinicians and others has grown considerably since the introduction of mobile phones. Medical apps offer clinicians the ability to access medical knowledge and patient data at the point of care, but several studies have highlighted apps that could compromise patient safety and are potentially dangerous. This article identifies a range of different kinds of risks that medical apps can contribute to and important contextual variables that can modify these risks. We have also developed a simple generic risk framework that app users, developers, and other stakeholders can use to assess the likely risks posed by a specific app in a specific context. This should help app commissioners, developers, and users to manage risks and improve patient safety.

Contaminated land in Colombia: A critical review of current status and future approach for the management of contaminated sites.

PubMed

Arias Espana, Victor Andres; Rodriguez Pinilla, Alfonso R; Bardos, Paul; Naidu, Ravi

2018-03-15

Environmental contaminants can have negative effects on human health and land, air and water resources. Consequently, there have been significant advances in regulation for protecting the environment in developed countries including the development of remediation frameworks and guidelines. On the other hand, fewer studies have been reported on the risks and health effects of contaminants in developing regions and there is scarce information regarding contaminated land assessment and environmental remediation. Colombia is an important emerging economy and has started to take the first steps towards the development of a framework for the management of contaminated sites and there are opportunities for the country to learn from countries with well-established frameworks such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) and for international collaboration with organisations such as CRC for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment (CARE). We review main pollution issues, current status of contaminated land management in Colombia to identify the gaps in policy and regulation. We also review the UK and US contaminated land policies and regulations to identify the elements of those experiences that could support progress in the country. Finally, we propose recommendations (e.g. risk based approach, soil screening criteria, clean-up funding, liability) for Colombia that could support further development and implementation of a more effective contaminated land management framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A wildfire risk modeling system for evaluating landscape fuel treatment strategies

Treesearch

Alan Ager; Mark Finney; Andrew McMahan

2006-01-01

Despite a wealth of literature and models concerning wildfire risk, field units in Federal land management agencies lack a clear framework and operational tools to measure how risk might change from proposed fuel treatments. In an actuarial context, risk is defined as the expected value change from a fire, calculated as the product of (1) probability of a fire at a...

An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species.

PubMed

Leung, Brian; Lodge, David M; Finnoff, David; Shogren, Jason F; Lewis, Mark A; Lamberti, Gary

2002-12-07

Numbers of non-indigenous species--species introduced from elsewhere - are increasing rapidly worldwide, causing both environmental and economic damage. Rigorous quantitative risk-analysis frameworks, however, for invasive species are lacking. We need to evaluate the risks posed by invasive species and quantify the relative merits of different management strategies (e.g. allocation of resources between prevention and control). We present a quantitative bioeconomic modelling framework to analyse risks from non-indigenous species to economic activity and the environment. The model identifies the optimal allocation of resources to prevention versus control, acceptable invasion risks and consequences of invasion to optimal investments (e.g. labour and capital). We apply the model to zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), and show that society could benefit by spending up to US$324 000 year(-1) to prevent invasions into a single lake with a power plant. By contrast, the US Fish and Wildlife Service spent US$825 000 in 2001 to manage all aquatic invaders in all US lakes. Thus, greater investment in prevention is warranted.

Occupational Stress: Preventing Suffering, Enhancing Wellbeing.

PubMed

Quick, James Campbell; Henderson, Demetria F

2016-04-29

Occupational stress is a known health risk for a range of psychological, behavioral, and medical disorders and diseases. Organizations and individuals can mitigate these disorders through preventive stress management and enhanced wellbeing. This article addresses, first, the known health risk evidence related to occupational stress; second, the use of preventive stress management in organizations as the framework for intervention; and third, the emerging domain of enhancing wellbeing, which strengthens the individual. Premature death and disability along with chronic suffering from occupational stress are not inevitable, despite being known outcome risks.

Occupational Stress: Preventing Suffering, Enhancing Wellbeing †

PubMed Central

Quick, James Campbell; Henderson, Demetria F.

2016-01-01

Occupational stress is a known health risk for a range of psychological, behavioral, and medical disorders and diseases. Organizations and individuals can mitigate these disorders through preventive stress management and enhanced wellbeing. This article addresses, first, the known health risk evidence related to occupational stress; second, the use of preventive stress management in organizations as the framework for intervention; and third, the emerging domain of enhancing wellbeing, which strengthens the individual. Premature death and disability along with chronic suffering from occupational stress are not inevitable, despite being known outcome risks. PMID:27136575

Rational risk-based decision support for drinking water well managers by optimized monitoring designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhöfer, R.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

2011-12-01

Advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. Considering the insufficient knowledge about hazards and transport properties within the catchment, current Water Safety Plans recommend that catchment managers and stakeholders know, control and monitor all possible hazards within the catchments and perform rational risk-based decisions. Our goal is to supply catchment managers with the required probabilistic risk information, and to generate tools that allow for optimal and rational allocation of resources between improved monitoring versus extended safety margins and risk mitigation measures. To support risk managers with the indispensable information, we address the epistemic uncertainty of advective-dispersive solute transport and well vulnerability (Enzenhoefer et al., 2011) within a stochastic simulation framework. Our framework can separate between uncertainty of contaminant location and actual dilution of peak concentrations by resolving heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulation. To keep computational costs low, we solve the reverse temporal moment transport equation. Only in post-processing, we recover the time-dependent solute breakthrough curves and the deduced well vulnerability criteria from temporal moments by non-linear optimization. Our first step towards optimal risk management is optimal positioning of sampling locations and optimal choice of data types to reduce best the epistemic prediction uncertainty for well-head delineation, using the cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (CLUE, Leube et al., 2011) for optimal sampling design. Better monitoring leads to more reliable and realistic protection zones and thus helps catchment managers to better justify smaller, yet conservative safety margins. In order to allow an optimal choice in sampling strategies, we compare the trade-off in monitoring versus the delineation costs by accounting for ill-delineated fractions of protection zones. Within an illustrative simplified 2D synthetic test case, we demonstrate our concept, involving synthetic transmissivity and head measurements for conditioning. We demonstrate the worth of optimally collected data in the context of protection zone delineation by assessing the reduced areal demand of delineated area at user-specified risk acceptance level. Results indicate that, thanks to optimally collected data, risk-aware delineation can be made at low to moderate additional costs compared to conventional delineation strategies.

Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

PubMed

Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

2009-04-01

Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

Adapting the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework: a multi-method approach in the context of familial ovarian cancer risk management.

PubMed

Witt, Jana; Elwyn, Glyn; Wood, Fiona; Rogers, Mark T; Menon, Usha; Brain, Kate

2014-11-01

To test whether the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework can be adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision: risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer. We performed a systematic literature search to identify issues important to women during deliberations about RRSO. Three focus groups with patients (most were pre-menopausal and untested for genetic mutations) and 11 interviews with health professionals were conducted to determine which issues mattered in the UK context. Data were used to adapt the generic CODE framework. The literature search yielded 49 relevant studies, which highlighted various issues and coping options important during deliberations, including mutation status, risks of surgery, family obligations, physician recommendation, peer support and reliable information sources. Consultations with UK stakeholders confirmed most of these factors as pertinent influences on deliberations. Questions in the generic framework were adapted to reflect the issues and coping options identified. The generic CODE framework was readily adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision, showing that deliberations and coping are linked during deliberations about RRSO. Adapted versions of the CODE framework may be used to develop tailored decision support methods and materials in order to improve patient-centred care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 2488 - Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-15

... Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's (MAFMC) Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) will hold... include new member orientation (overview of Council process and role of the SSC), review and adoption of SSC Standard Operating Practices and Procedures, ABC Control Rule Framework and Council Risk Policy...

The landscape of fear conceptual framework: definition and review of current applications and misuses.

PubMed

Bleicher, Sonny S

2017-01-01

Landscapes of Fear (LOF), the spatially explicit distribution of perceived predation risk as seen by a population, is increasingly cited in ecological literature and has become a frequently used "buzz-word". With the increase in popularity, it became necessary to clarify the definition for the term, suggest boundaries and propose a common framework for its use. The LOF, as a progeny of the "ecology of fear" conceptual framework, defines fear as the strategic manifestation of the cost-benefit analysis of food and safety tradeoffs. In addition to direct predation risk, the LOF is affected by individuals' energetic-state, inter- and intra-specific competition and is constrained by the evolutionary history of each species. Herein, based on current applications of the LOF conceptual framework, I suggest the future research in this framework will be directed towards: (1) finding applied management uses as a trait defining a population's habitat-use and habitat-suitability; (2) studying multi-dimensional distribution of risk-assessment through time and space; (3) studying variability between individuals within a population; (4) measuring eco-neurological implications of risk as a feature of environmental heterogeneity and (5) expanding temporal and spatial scales of empirical studies.

The landscape of fear conceptual framework: definition and review of current applications and misuses

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Landscapes of Fear (LOF), the spatially explicit distribution of perceived predation risk as seen by a population, is increasingly cited in ecological literature and has become a frequently used “buzz-word”. With the increase in popularity, it became necessary to clarify the definition for the term, suggest boundaries and propose a common framework for its use. The LOF, as a progeny of the “ecology of fear” conceptual framework, defines fear as the strategic manifestation of the cost-benefit analysis of food and safety tradeoffs. In addition to direct predation risk, the LOF is affected by individuals’ energetic-state, inter- and intra-specific competition and is constrained by the evolutionary history of each species. Herein, based on current applications of the LOF conceptual framework, I suggest the future research in this framework will be directed towards: (1) finding applied management uses as a trait defining a population’s habitat-use and habitat-suitability; (2) studying multi-dimensional distribution of risk-assessment through time and space; (3) studying variability between individuals within a population; (4) measuring eco-neurological implications of risk as a feature of environmental heterogeneity and (5) expanding temporal and spatial scales of empirical studies. PMID:28929015

[Applying the Modified Delphi Technique to Develop the Role of HIV Case Managers and Essential Nursing Competencies in HIV Care].

PubMed

Ko, Nai-Ying; Hsieh, Chia-Yin; Chen, Yen-Chin; Tsai, Chen-Hsi; Liu, Hsiao-Ying; Liu, Li-Fang

2015-08-01

Since 2005, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) initiated an HIV case management program in AIDS-designated hospitals to provide integrative services and risk-reduction counseling for HIV-infected individuals. In light of the increasingly complex and highly specialized nature of clinical care, expanding and improving competency-based professional education is important to enhance the quality of HIV/AIDS care. The aim of this study was to develop the essential competency framework for HIV care for HIV case managers in Taiwan. We reviewed essential competencies of HIV care from Canada, the United Kingdom, and several African countries and devised descriptions of the roles of case managers and of the associated core competencies for HIV care in Taiwan. The modified Delphi technique was used to evaluate the draft framework of these roles and core competencies. A total of 15 HIV care experts were invited to join the expert panel to review and rank the draft framework. The final framework consisted of 7 roles and 27 competencies for HIV case managers. In Round 1, only 3 items did not receive consensus approval from the experts. After modification based on opinions of the experts, 7 roles and 27 competencies received 97.06% consensus approval in Round 2 and were organized into the final framework for HIV case managers. These roles and associated core competencies were: HIV Care Expert (9 competencies), Communicator (1 competency), Collaborator (4 competencies), Navigator (2 competencies), Manager (4 competencies), Advocate (2 competencies), and Professional (5 competencies). The authors developed an essential competency framework for HIV care using the consensus of a multidisciplinary expert panel. Curriculum developers and advanced nurses and practitioners may use this framework to support developments and to ensure a high quality of HIV care.

Approach for Assessing Direct Flood Damages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaňová, Lenka; Zeleňáková, Martina; Słyś, Daniel; Purcz, Pavol

2014-11-01

This article presents a methodological approach to flood direct tangible damage - damage to assets and direct intangible damage - environmental damage and loss of life assessment. The assessment of flood risk is an essential part of the risk management approach, which is the conceptual basis for the EU directive 2007/60/ES on the assessment and management of flood risk. The purpose of this directive is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risk, aiming at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with flood in the community. Overall, an accurate estimation of negative effects on assets, environment and people is important in order to be able to determine the economy, environmental and social flood risk level in a system and the effects of risk mitigation measures.

The Shape of Ecosystem Management to Come: Anticipating Risks and Fostering Resilience

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert

2014-01-01

Global change is increasingly challenging the sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services to society. Addressing future uncertainty and risk has therefore become a central problem of ecosystem management. With risk management and resilience-based stewardship, two contrasting approaches have been proposed to address this issue. Whereas one is concentrated on anticipating and mitigating risks, the other is focused on fostering the ability to absorb perturbations and maintain desired properties. While they have hitherto been discussed largely separately in the literature, I here propose a unifying framework of anticipating risks and fostering resilience in ecosystem management. Anticipatory action is advocated when the predictability of risk is high and sufficient knowledge to address it is available. Conversely, in situations in which predictability and knowledge are limited, resilience-based measures are paramount. I conclude that, by adopting a purposeful combination of insights from risk and resilience research, we can make ecosystem services provisioning more robust to future uncertainty and change. PMID:25729079

Mindfulness and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: State of the Evidence, Plausible Mechanisms, and Theoretical Framework.

PubMed

Loucks, Eric B; Schuman-Olivier, Zev; Britton, Willoughby B; Fresco, David M; Desbordes, Gaelle; Brewer, Judson A; Fulwiler, Carl

2015-12-01

The purpose of this review is to provide (1) a synopsis on relations of mindfulness with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major CVD risk factors, and (2) an initial consensus-based overview of mechanisms and theoretical framework by which mindfulness might influence CVD. Initial evidence, often of limited methodological quality, suggests possible impacts of mindfulness on CVD risk factors including physical activity, smoking, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and diabetes regulation. Plausible mechanisms include (1) improved attention control (e.g., ability to hold attention on experiences related to CVD risk, such as smoking, diet, physical activity, and medication adherence), (2) emotion regulation (e.g., improved stress response, self-efficacy, and skills to manage craving for cigarettes, palatable foods, and sedentary activities), and (3) self-awareness (e.g., self-referential processing and awareness of physical sensations due to CVD risk factors). Understanding mechanisms and theoretical framework should improve etiologic knowledge, providing customized mindfulness intervention targets that could enable greater mindfulness intervention efficacy.

Mindfulness and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: State of the Evidence, Plausible Mechanisms, and Theoretical Framework

PubMed Central

Schuman-Olivier, Zev; Britton, Willoughby B.; Fresco, David M.; Desbordes, Gaelle; Brewer, Judson A.; Fulwiler, Carl

2016-01-01

The purpose of this review is to provide (1) a synopsis on relations of mindfulness with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major CVD risk factors, and (2) an initial consensus-based overview of mechanisms and theoretical framework by which mindfulness might influence CVD. Initial evidence, often of limited methodological quality, suggests possible impacts of mindfulness on CVD risk factors including physical activity, smoking, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and diabetes regulation. Plausible mechanisms include (1) improved attention control (e.g., ability to hold attention on experiences related to CVD risk, such as smoking, diet, physical activity, and medication adherence), (2) emotion regulation (e.g., improved stress response, self-efficacy, and skills to manage craving for cigarettes, palatable foods, and sedentary activities), and (3) self-awareness (e.g., self-referential processing and awareness of physical sensations due to CVD risk factors). Understanding mechanisms and theoretical framework should improve etiologic knowledge, providing customized mindfulness intervention targets that could enable greater mindfulness intervention efficacy. PMID:26482755

Using resilience and resistance concepts to manage persistent threats to sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, Jeanne C.; Maestas, Jeremy D.; Pyke, David A.; Boyd, Chad S.; Pellant, Mike; Wuenschel, Amarina

2017-01-01

Conservation of imperiled species often demands addressing a complex suite of threats that undermine species viability. Regulatory approaches, such as the US Endangered Species Act (1973), tend to focus on anthropogenic threats through adoption of policies and regulatory mechanisms. However, persistent ecosystem-based threats, such as invasive species and altered disturbance regimes, remain critical issues for most at-risk species considered to be conservation-reliant. We describe an approach for addressing persistent ecosystem threats to at-risk species based on ecological resilience and resistance concepts that is currently being used to conserve greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)and sagebrush ecosystems. The approach links biophysical indicators of ecosystem resilience and resistance with species-specific population and habitat requisites in a risk-based framework to identify priority areas for management and guide allocation of resources to manage persistent ecosystem-based threats. US federal land management and natural resource agencies have adopted this framework as a foundation for prioritizing sage-grouse conservation resources and determining effective restoration and management strategies. Because threats and strategies to address them cross-cut program areas, an integrated approach that includes wildland fire operations, postfire rehabilitation, fuels management, and habitat restoration is being used. We believe this approach is applicable to species conservation in other largely intact ecosystems with persistent, ecosystem-based threats.

Incorporating Social Determinants into a Groundwater Risk Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M.; Allen, D. M.; Journeay, M.; Korteling, B.

2009-12-01

The remediation of polluted groundwater is often very costly, therefore water managers utilize various proactive measures, such as wellhead protection planning, to prevent contamination events. With limited available resources, it is essential to prioritize where these measures are introduced; systematic and integrated methodologies of assessing risk to groundwater can be utilized for this prioritization. To quantify the resistance of the physical system to pollution, Aquifer Vulnerability is commonly mapped for the area of interest. This information is useful for focusing monitoring efforts and identifying data gaps, but is a relative measure of contaminant risk. To more accurately assess the probability of contamination, an inventory of hazards can be integrated with intrinsic vulnerability of the physical system. This Threat indicator links land-use with chemicals and quantifies the risk based on the toxicity and environmental fate of these substances. Local knowledge of the quantity stored and likelihood of release can be utilized to further assess these threats. Both of these steps form part of an existing frameworks for assessing risk to groundwater. In this study, a groundwater risk framework is developed and tested in two study areas; Pender Island and the Lower Fraser Valley in British Columbia, Canada. Enhancements of a basic groundwater risk framework include not only incorporating points sources such as septic systems, landfills and fuel storage, but also various social determinants of risk. These social determinants include the Resistance of a community, which represents the planning and protection initiatives designed to safeguard the resource. These include items such as land-use planning that consider groundwater vulnerability and best management practices enforced by local governments. The ability to recover following an event is the Capacity of a community; indicators include the presence or absence of spill response plans, treatment systems or an alternative supply of water. The determinant of Loss quantifies the financial impact of this work. This indicator may be altered in future applications to include loss associated with human health and/or that stemming from a reduction in ecosystem health.

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.

PubMed

Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J

2014-12-01

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Wild Wild West: A Framework to Integrate mHealth Software Applications and Wearables to Support Physical Activity Assessment, Counseling and Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

Lobelo, Felipe; Kelli, Heval M.; Tejedor, Sheri Chernetsky; Pratt, Michael; McConnell, Michael V.; Martin, Seth S.; Welk, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Physical activity (PA) interventions constitute a critical component of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction programs. Objective mobile health (mHealth) software applications (apps) and wearable activity monitors (WAMs) can advance both assessment and integration of PA counseling in clinical settings and support community-based PA interventions. The use of mHealth technology for CVD risk reduction is promising, but integration into routine clinical care and population health management has proven challenging. The increasing diversity of available technologies and the lack of a comprehensive guiding framework are key barriers for standardizing data collection and integration. This paper reviews the validity, utility and feasibility of implementing mHealth technology in clinical settings and proposes an organizational framework to support PA assessment, counseling and referrals to community resources for CVD risk reduction interventions. This integration framework can be adapted to different clinical population needs. It should also be refined as technologies and regulations advance under an evolving health care system landscape in the United States and globally. PMID:26923067

The Wild Wild West: A Framework to Integrate mHealth Software Applications and Wearables to Support Physical Activity Assessment, Counseling and Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

PubMed

Lobelo, Felipe; Kelli, Heval M; Tejedor, Sheri Chernetsky; Pratt, Michael; McConnell, Michael V; Martin, Seth S; Welk, Gregory J

2016-01-01

Physical activity (PA) interventions constitute a critical component of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction programs. Objective mobile health (mHealth) software applications (apps) and wearable activity monitors (WAMs) can advance both assessment and integration of PA counseling in clinical settings and support community-based PA interventions. The use of mHealth technology for CVD risk reduction is promising, but integration into routine clinical care and population health management has proven challenging. The increasing diversity of available technologies and the lack of a comprehensive guiding framework are key barriers for standardizing data collection and integration. This paper reviews the validity, utility and feasibility of implementing mHealth technology in clinical settings and proposes an organizational framework to support PA assessment, counseling and referrals to community resources for CVD risk reduction interventions. This integration framework can be adapted to different clinical population needs. It should also be refined as technologies and regulations advance under an evolving health care system landscape in the United States and globally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing and Managing Violence Risk in Juveniles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borum, Randy; Verhaagen, David

2006-01-01

Highly practical and accessible, this is an indispensable resource for any mental health practitioner working with adolescents at risk for violent behavior. Presented is a comprehensive framework for evaluating justice-involved youth or those whose behavior in school, therapy sessions, or other contexts raises concern about violence. Detailed case…

Grounding the Management of Liabilities in the Risk Analysis Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Peter W. B.; Smyth, Stuart

2007-01-01

Discussions of socioeconomic liability and compensation must necessarily start from an understanding of the socioeconomic, legal, and scientific basis for identifying, assessing, managing, and apportioning blame for hazards related to innovations. Public discussions about the nature of the liability challenge related to genetically modified (GM)…

Working towards an integrated land contamination management framework for Nigeria.

PubMed

Sam, Kabari; Coulon, Frédéric; Prpich, George

2016-11-15

Over the past five decades, Nigeria has developed a number of contaminated land legislations to address the damage caused primarily by oil and gas exploitation activities. Within these legislations exists elements of risk assessment and risk-based corrective action. Despite this progress, we argue that contaminated land management approaches in Nigeria need further development to be able to integrate new scientific information, and to address environmental, economic, and social values. By comparison, advanced contaminated land regimes in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America (USA) apply a number of integrative approaches (e.g. sustainability appraisal, liability regime, funding mechanisms, technology demonstration) that enable them to meet the environmental, economic, and social needs of their populations. In comparison, Nigerian governance lacks many of these mechanisms and management of contaminated land is ad hoc. In this paper we propose an integrated risk assessment framework for Nigeria that incorporates the principles of sustainability and stakeholder engagement into the decision-making processes for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management. The integrated approach relies on transparency to promote acceptance and build trust in institutions, and uses stakeholder engagement to address data deficiencies. We conclude this paper with a roadmap for how Nigeria might implement such an integrative approach into their existing contaminated land regulatory system, as well as identify a series of policy priorities that should be addressed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disaster risk profile and existing legal framework of Nepal: floods and landslides

PubMed Central

Gaire, Surya; Castro Delgado, Rafael; Arcos González, Pedro

2015-01-01

Nepal has a complicated geophysical structure that is prone to various kinds of disasters. Nepal ranks the most disaster-prone country in the world and has experienced several natural calamities, causing high property and life losses. Disasters are caused by natural processes, but may be increased by human activities. The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the disaster risk profile and existing legal framework of Nepal. The paper is based on secondary data sources. Major causative factors for floods and landslides are heavy and continuous rainfall, outburst floods, infrastructure failure, and deforestation. Historical data of natural disasters in Nepal show that water-induced disasters have killed hundreds of people and affected thousands every year. Likewise, properties worth millions of US dollars have been damaged. There is an increasing trend toward landslides and floods, which will likely continue to rise if proper intervention is not taken. A positive correlation between water-induced disasters and deaths has been observed. Nepal has a poor Index for Risk Management (INFORM). There are fluctuations in the recording of death data caused by flood and landslides. The Government of Nepal focuses more on the response phase than on the preparedness phase of disasters. The existing disaster management act seems to be weak and outdated. There is a gap in current legal procedure, so the country is in dire need of a comprehensive legal framework. The new proposed act seems to take a much broader approach to disaster management. With a long-term vision of managing disaster risk in the country, the Government of Nepal has begun the Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC) in collaboration with development and humanitarian partners. In order to improve the vulnerability of Nepal, an early warning system, mainstreaming disasters with development, research activities, community participation and awareness, and a rainfall monitoring system must all be a focus. PMID:26366106

Disaster risk profile and existing legal framework of Nepal: floods and landslides.

PubMed

Gaire, Surya; Castro Delgado, Rafael; Arcos González, Pedro

2015-01-01

Nepal has a complicated geophysical structure that is prone to various kinds of disasters. Nepal ranks the most disaster-prone country in the world and has experienced several natural calamities, causing high property and life losses. Disasters are caused by natural processes, but may be increased by human activities. The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the disaster risk profile and existing legal framework of Nepal. The paper is based on secondary data sources. Major causative factors for floods and landslides are heavy and continuous rainfall, outburst floods, infrastructure failure, and deforestation. Historical data of natural disasters in Nepal show that water-induced disasters have killed hundreds of people and affected thousands every year. Likewise, properties worth millions of US dollars have been damaged. There is an increasing trend toward landslides and floods, which will likely continue to rise if proper intervention is not taken. A positive correlation between water-induced disasters and deaths has been observed. Nepal has a poor Index for Risk Management (INFORM). There are fluctuations in the recording of death data caused by flood and landslides. The Government of Nepal focuses more on the response phase than on the preparedness phase of disasters. The existing disaster management act seems to be weak and outdated. There is a gap in current legal procedure, so the country is in dire need of a comprehensive legal framework. The new proposed act seems to take a much broader approach to disaster management. With a long-term vision of managing disaster risk in the country, the Government of Nepal has begun the Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC) in collaboration with development and humanitarian partners. In order to improve the vulnerability of Nepal, an early warning system, mainstreaming disasters with development, research activities, community participation and awareness, and a rainfall monitoring system must all be a focus.

Evaluating Intervention Programs Targeting Parents to Manage Childhood Overweight and Obesity: A Systematic Review Using the RE-AIM Framework.

PubMed

Jang, Myoungock; Chao, Ariana; Whittemore, Robin

2015-01-01

Intervention programs targeting parents to manage childhood overweight and obesity have emerged based on parents influence on the health behaviors of their children. The purpose of this review was to systematically evaluate intervention programs targeting parents to manage childhood overweight and obesity using the Reach, Efficacy, Adopt, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. There was a moderate risk of bias across all studies. The overall proportion of studies (n=7) reporting on each dimension of the RE-AIM framework ranged from 78.6% (reach) to 23.8% (maintenance). The majority of intervention programs demonstrated improvement in child BMI. However intervention programs did not reach families of diverse race/ethnicity, were provided by highly trained professionals, and demonstrated high attrition, thus limiting generalizability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A good practice guide for safe work with nanoparticles: The Quebec approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostiguy, C.; Roberge, B.; Ménard, L.; Endo, C. A.

2009-02-01

new industrial revolution has already begun around nanotechnologies, letting us anticipate major scientific breakthroughs that will affect each economic activity sector and whose expected global economic impacts will exceed 1000 billion annually by 2012. Simultaneously, many studies reveal that nanoparticles represent different occupational health and safety (OHS) risks unique to them and that often differ from the risks related to the same chemical substances with larger dimensions. As the number of potentially exposed workers increases and much uncertainty persists about OHS risks, this extended abstract proposes a framework for occupational risk management with the objective of controlling exposure to NPs in a context of a major lack of specific data related to the hazards of these substances and to the level of occupational exposure. The framework takes into consideration the equal representation of both the employers and workers in the Québec legislation and accounts the potential routes of exposure and focuses on a structured approach dealing with hazard identification, exposure characterization, risk assessment and risk management through different control methodologies. These are included in a prevention program that must be followed up, once it has been implemented, and refined through an iterative approach as new data become available.

Assessing risks to multiple resources affected by wildfire and forest management using an integrated probabilistic framework

Treesearch

Steven P. Norman; Danny C. Lee; Sandra Jacobson; Christine Damiani

2010-01-01

The tradeoffs that surround forest management are inherently complex, often involving multiple temporal and spatial scales. For example, conflicts may result when fuel treatments are designed to mediate long-term fuel hazards, but activities could impair sensitive aquatic habitat or degrade wildlife habitat in the short term. This complexity makes it hard for managers...

A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

PubMed

Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

2015-12-15

Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2016-06-25

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) ismore » essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, and emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.« less

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

PubMed Central

Anthony, Kenneth RN; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas AJ; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

2015-01-01

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services. PMID:25196132

Science in a Post-Sendai World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brosnan, D. M.

2015-12-01

Adopted at the U.N. Conference on March 18, 2015 in Sendai Japan, the international framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) will guide how nations across the world address disasters and hazards for the next fifteen years. The agreement, reached after several years of negotiation, marks a shift in thinking and approach to DRR. Traditionally DRR has been the domain of humanitarian responses and methods have been well honed over the decades. However, a defining element of this agreement is the stronger recognition of the role that science can play in preparing for, managing, and mitigating disasters. The framework identifies four priority areas: understanding disaster risk; strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience; and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to "build back better" in recovery rehabilitation and reconstruction. Science can underpin each one. For example, the first priority to better understand risks will require scientific and technological input. In addition embedded throughout the Framework are calls for several other specific actions including, dedicated scientific and technical work on disaster risk reduction; mobilization. The challenge moving forward will be to move from rhetoric to action. Are governments ready to embrace the scientific community's input or are many still resistant? What, if any, structures are in place to ensure that the necessary science is carried out and then heard by those who can use it? What steps can scientists and scientific organizations take to ensure the role of science and make their efforts are effective? How science can respond to the opportunities and challenges in a Post-Sendai world will be discussed in the presentation.

Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

PubMed

Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

2017-04-01

To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the regulator-insurer interaction in a structural model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Carole; Chen, An

2009-11-01

In this paper, we provide a new insight to the previous work of Briys and de Varenne [E. Briys, F. de Varenne, Life insurance in a contingent claim framework: Pricing and regulatory implications, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 19 (1) (1994) 53-72], Grosen and Jørgensen [A. Grosen, P.L. Jørgensen, Life insurance liabilities at market value: An analysis of insolvency risk, bonus policy, and regulatory intervention rules in a barrier option framework, Journal of Risk and Insurance 69 (1) (2002) 63-91] and Chen and Suchanecki [A. Chen, M. Suchanecki, Default risk, bankruptcy procedures and the market value of life insurance liabilities, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 40 (2007) 231-255]. We show that the particular risk management strategy followed by the insurance company can significantly change the risk exposure of the company, and that it should thus be taken into account by regulators. We first study how the regulator establishes regulation intervention levels in order to control for instance the default probability of the insurance company. This part of the analysis is based on a constant volatility. Given that the insurance company is informed of regulatory rules, we study how results can be significantly different when the insurance company follows a risk management strategy with non-constant volatilities. We thus highlight some limits of the prior literature and believe that the risk management strategy of the company should be taken into account in the estimation of the risk exposure as well as in that of the market value of liabilities.

An adaptive, comprehensive monitoring strategy for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in California's Aquatic Ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Schlenk, Daniel; Anderson, Paul D; Denslow, Nancy D; Drewes, Jörg E; Olivieri, Adam W; Scott, Geoffrey I; Snyder, Shane A

2014-01-01

A scientific advisory panel was convened by the State of California to recommend monitoring for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in aquatic systems that receive discharge of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff. The panel developed a risk-based screening framework that considered environmental sources and fate of CECs observed in receiving waters across the State. Using existing occurrence and risk threshold data in water, sediment, and biological tissue, the panel applied the framework to identify a priority list of CECs for initial monitoring in three representative receiving water scenarios. The initial screening list of 16 CECs identified by the panel included consumer and commercial chemicals, flame retardants, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, and natural hormones. The panel designed an iterative, phased strategy with interpretive guidelines that direct and update management actions commensurate with potential risk identified using the risk-based framework and monitoring data. Because of the ever-changing nature of chemical use, technology, and management practices, the panel offered recommendations to improve CEC monitoring, including development of bioanalytical screening methods whose responses integrate exposure to complex mixtures and that can be linked to higher-order effects; development or refinement of models that predict the input, fate, and effects of future chemicals; and filling of key data gaps on CEC occurrence and toxicity. Finally, the panel stressed the need for adaptive management, allowing for future review of, and if warranted, modifications to the strategy to incorporate the latest science available to the water resources community. © 2013 SETAC.

Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

2004-06-01

The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate andmore » transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.« less

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Methodology for setting risk-based concentrations of contaminants in soil and groundwater and application to a model contaminated site.

PubMed

Fujinaga, Aiichiro; Uchiyama, Iwao; Morisawa, Shinsuke; Yoneda, Minoru; Sasamoto, Yuzuru

2012-01-01

In Japan, environmental standards for contaminants in groundwater and in leachate from soil are set with the assumption that they are used for drinking water over a human lifetime. Where there is neither a well nor groundwater used for drinking, the standard is thus too severe. Therefore, remediation based on these standards incurs excessive effort and cost. In contrast, the environmental-assessment procedure used in the United States and the Netherlands considers the site conditions (land use, existing wells, etc.); however, a risk assessment is required for each site. Therefore, this study proposes a new framework for judging contamination in Japan by considering the merits of the environmental standards used and a method for risk assessment. The framework involves setting risk-based concentrations that are attainable remediation goals for contaminants in soil and groundwater. The framework was then applied to a model contaminated site for risk management, and the results are discussed regarding the effectiveness and applicability of the new methodology. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Managing perceived operational risk factors for effective supply-chain management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylla, Cheickna

2014-12-01

This research is part of a large scale comprehensive mathematical and empirical modeling investigation projects aimed at developing a better understanding of supply-chain risk management by offering a comprehensive framework including theoretical elements and empirical evidence based on managers' perception of improved organizational level of preparedness to safeguard against the threats of disruptions, delays and stoppage in the supply chain. More specifically, this paper reports the empirical investigation conducted using 92 companies in several eastern USA regions involved in international trades with global supply chains. Among the 56 general hypotheses investigated, the results support that managers strive to balance their control and decision impacts to mold their responses to risk factors with knowledge of the extent of cost consequences as stated in previous research. However, the results also propose new findings which significantly vary from previous research reports.

Value-driven ERM: making ERM an engine for simultaneous value creation and value protection.

PubMed

Celona, John; Driver, Jeffrey; Hall, Edward

2011-01-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) began as an effort to integrate the historically disparate silos of risk management in organizations. More recently, as recognition has grown of the need to cover the upside risks in value creation (financial and otherwise), organizations and practitioners have been searching for the means to do this. Existing tools such as heat maps and risk registers are not adequate for this task. Instead, a conceptually new value-driven framework is needed to realize the promise of enterprise-wide coverage of all risks, for both value protection and value creation. The methodology of decision analysis provides the means of capturing systemic, correlated, and value-creation risks on the same basis as value protection risks and has been integrated into the value-driven approach to ERM described in this article. Stanford Hospital and Clinics Risk Consulting and Strategic Decisions Group have been working to apply this value-driven ERM at Stanford University Medical Center. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

How the Adoption of the Big-Data Paradigm Affects the Key Factors That Influence the Effectiveness of an Information Assurance (IA) Framework: A Multiple-Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Apple, Benjamin G.

2017-01-01

This qualitative study identified those factors that influence the perceived effectiveness of traditional IA control frameworks. The key factors examined in this study are risk management, governance, access control, privacy protection, integrity, availability, reliability, and usability. The researcher endeavored to determine how the…

A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

2016-06-05

In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk.

PubMed

Soane, Emma; Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2016-06-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

PubMed

Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

2012-08-15

This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new evidence-based risk stratification system for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma into low, intermediate, and high risk groups with implications for management.

PubMed

Baum, Christian L; Wright, Adam C; Martinez, Juan-Carlos; Arpey, Christopher J; Brewer, Jerry D; Roenigk, Randall K; Otley, Clark C

2018-01-01

Most primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas are cured with surgery. A subset, however, may develop local and nodal metastasis that may eventuate in disease-specific; death. This subset has been variably termed high risk. Herein, we review; an emerging body of data on the risks of these outcomes and propose an evidence-based; risk stratification for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumors that takes into; account both tumor and patient characteristics. Finally, we discuss a framework for; management of these tumors on the basis of data, when available, and our; recommendations when data are sparse. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Home Care Clinicians’ Information Needs for Managing Fall Risks

PubMed Central

Alhuwail, Dari

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives To help manage the risk of falls in home care, this study aimed to (i) identify home care clinicians’ information needs and how they manage missing or inaccurate data, (ii) identify problems that impact effectiveness and efficiency associated with retaining, exchanging, or processing information about fall risks in existing workflows and currently adopted health information technology (IT) solutions, and (iii) offer informatics-based recommendations to improve fall risk management interventions. Methods A case study was carried out in a single not-for-profit suburban Medicare-certified home health agency with three branches. Qualitative data were collected over a six month period through observations, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. The Framework method was used for analysis. Maximum variation sampling was adopted to recruit a diverse sample of clinicians. Results Overall, the information needs for fall risk management were categorized into physiological, care delivery, educational, social, environmental, and administrative domains. Examples include a brief fall-related patient history, weight-bearing status, medications that affect balance, availability of caregivers at home, and the influence of patients’ cultures on fall management interventions. The unavailability and inaccuracy of critical information related to fall risks can delay necessary therapeutic services aimed at reducing patients’ risk for falling and thereby jeopardizing their safety. Currently adopted IT solutions did not adequately accommodate data related to fall risk management. Conclusion The results highlight the essential information for fall risk management in home care. Home care workflows and health IT solutions must effectively and efficiently retain, exchange, and process information necessary for fall risk management. Interoperability and integration of the various health IT solutions to make data sharing accessible to all clinicians is critical for fall risk management. Findings from this study can help home health agencies better understand their information needs to manage fall risks. PMID:27437035

A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

2017-12-01

Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

Risk management and precaution: insights on the cautious use of evidence.

PubMed Central

Hrudey, Steve E; Leiss, William

2003-01-01

Risk management, done well, should be inherently precautionary. Adopting an appropriate degree of precaution with respect to feared health and environmental hazards is fundamental to risk management. The real problem is in deciding how precautionary to be in the face of inevitable uncertainties, demanding that we understand the equally inevitable false positives and false negatives from screening evidence. We consider a framework for detection and judgment of evidence of well-characterized hazards, using the concepts of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value that are well established for medical diagnosis. Our confidence in predicting the likelihood of a true danger inevitably will be poor for rare hazards because of the predominance of false positives; failing to detect a true danger is less likely because false negatives must be rarer than the danger itself. Because most controversial environmental hazards arise infrequently, this truth poses a dilemma for risk management. PMID:14527835

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision propagation in numerical modeling using both classical Monte-Carlo probabilistic approach and also so-called Hybrid approach using possibility theory. Second approach deals with new multi-criteria decision-making methods which consider information imperfection, source reliability, importance and conflict, using fuzzy sets as well as possibility and belief function theories. Implemented methods consider information imperfection propagation and information fusion in total aggregation methods such as AHP (Saaty, 1980) or partial aggregation methods such as the Electre outranking method (see Soft Electre Tri ) or decisions in certain but also risky or uncertain contexts (see new COWA-ER and FOWA-ER- Cautious and Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging-Evidential Reasoning). For example, the ER-MCDA methodology considers expert assessment as a multi-criteria decision process based on imperfect information provided by more or less heterogeneous, reliable and conflicting sources: it mixes AHP, fuzzy sets theory, possibility theory and belief function theory using DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache Theory) framework which provides powerful fusion rules.

Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

PubMed

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-06-01

Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

PubMed Central

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-01-01

Background Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. Methods After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. Results We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. Conclusion This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons. PMID:23961332

Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

PubMed

Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

2011-08-24

Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches. PMID:21864330

Interoperable Risk Management in a Joint Interagency Multinational Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

est ensuite examinée par rapport à l’approche rendue obligatoire par le Conseil du Trésor. Un examen effectué par le Chef – Service d’examen (2004...relativement à la compréhension du MDN/des FC en matière de gestion des risques. De plus, un examen effectué par le Chef – Service d’examen (2004) a...to support further improvement. The Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat’s framework for risk management is also reflected in a companion

Mission Continuity Planning: Strategically Assessing and Planning for Threats to Operations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qayoumi, Mohammad H.

This book covers the principles of risk and risk management and offers a framework for analyzing the significant, often unforeseen threats facing higher education institutions today. It examines the critical elements of a disaster preparedness plan and addresses business continuity and mission continuity planning. The book also provides tools for…

The integration of the risk management process with the lifecycle of medical device software.

PubMed

Pecoraro, F; Luzi, D

2014-01-01

The application of software in the Medical Device (MD) domain has become central to the improvement of diagnoses and treatments. The new European regulations that specifically address software as an important component of MD, require complex procedures to make software compliant with safety requirements, introducing thereby new challenges in the qualification and classification of MD software as well as in the performance of risk management activities. Under this perspective, the aim of this paper is to propose an integrated framework that combines the activities to be carried out by the manufacturer to develop safe software within the development lifecycle based on the regulatory requirements reported in US and European regulations as well as in the relevant standards and guidelines. A comparative analysis was carried out to identify the main issues related to the application of the current new regulations. In addition, standards and guidelines recently released to harmonise procedures for the validation of MD software have been used to define the risk management activities to be carried out by the manufacturer during the software development process. This paper highlights the main issues related to the qualification and classification of MD software, providing an analysis of the different regulations applied in Europe and the US. A model that integrates the risk management process within the software development lifecycle has been proposed too. It is based on regulatory requirements and considers software risk analysis as a central input to be managed by the manufacturer already at the initial stages of the software design, in order to prevent MD failures. Relevant changes in the process of MD development have been introduced with the recognition of software being an important component of MDs as stated in regulations and standards. This implies the performance of highly iterative processes that have to integrate the risk management in the framework of software development. It also makes it necessary to involve both medical and software engineering competences to safeguard patient and user safety.

Risk Management in Agriculture for Food Security in Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, A.; National Research CouncilScientific; Technological Research (Conicet)

2013-05-01

The Americas are extremely important as a unique contributor to Food Security. It provides from tropical to temperate crops. Not only they are able to feed their own population, but contribute significantly to the food supply of the population in developed, emergent and underdeveloped countries. This fact has given the region a unique responsibility to develop a regional risk-management strategy to manage food insecurity at a local, national, regional and global level. Although international agencies such as UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Instituto Interamericano para la Cooperación en Agricultura (IICA) and the regional centres of the Consultative Group for International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) and the World Bank (WB), are engaged in actions for Risk Management in Agriculture for reducing Food Insecurity. However there is a need to build a framework and/or comprehensive regional strategy for the Americas. It would identify areas for promoting research projects where natural and social science work together for producing relevant scientific information and tools i.e. maps, indicators, models and scenarios, early warning systems, etc. to cooperate with both policy and decision makers in the public and private sectors. This would eventually lead to a comprehensive regional programme for reducing food insecurity. The purpose of International Council for Science-International Research and the International Research for Disaster Risk programme (ICSU-IRDR) and ICSU Regional Office for Latinamerica and the Caribbean (ICSU-ROLAC) is to promote the cooperation of the relevant scientific fields in both natural science and social science in a multi and trans-disciplinary approach on risk management to reduce food insecurity. Also both ICSU-IRDR and ICSU-ROLAC are building a case for the inclusion of the scientific community in the revision of the Hjogo Framework for Action for Disaster Reduction to be held in 2015 as risk management for reducing food insecurity is part of the agenda.

Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

PubMed

McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

2011-06-01

Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

Manage Toward Success - Utilization of Analytics in Acquisition Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

on the concept of knowledge- based acquisition described by the GAO. In the GAO (2005) report for National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ...acquisition programs, GAO recommended to NASA , and NASA subsequently con- curred, that transition to a knowledge-based acquisition framework will...Certification and Accreditation Process; ERAM = Enterprise Risk Assessment Manager; EVMS = Earned Value Management System; GOV = Government; POA&M = Plan of

Institutional frameworks for management of epizoonotic emergencies in six countries in the Eastern Africa region: a situational analysis.

PubMed

Bazeyo, W; Mayega, Roy W; Nabukenya, I; Keyyu, J; Mamuya, S; Tabu, S J; Senna, L; Mohammad, M; Rugigana, E; Alingi, A; Mapatano, M; Kiguli, J; Orach, C G; Burnham, G; Killewo, J

2013-06-01

The Eastern Africa region is a hot-spot for epidemics of emerging zoonotic diseases ('epizoonotics'). However, the region's capacity for response to epidemics of zoonotic origin has not been documented. This paper presents a multi-country situational analysis on the institutional frameworks for management of zoonotic epidemics in the Eastern Africa region. A multi-country assessment of 6 country teams was conducted (Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, DRC and Rwanda). It involved a review of records and interviews with key informants from agencies with a stake in the management of zoonotic and disasters in general in the respective countries. Qualitative data were analyzed for key emerging themes. There are many socio-cultural risk factors to epidemic prone zoonotic diseases in the region. Countries have varying levels of preparedness for zoonotic emergencies. All 6 countries have a framework for disaster management. However, technical response to epidemics is managed by the line sectors, with limited Inter-sectoral collaboration. Some sectors were disproportionately more prepared than others. Surveillance systems are mostly passive and inadequate for early detection. All 6 countries have built reasonable capacity to respond to avian influenza, but not other zoonotic emergencies. Most countries lack personnel at the operational levels, and veterinary public health services are ill-facilitated. There is need to strengthen veterinary public health services at all levels, but with a 'one health' approach. There is also need to establish 'risk-based surveillance' hot spots for zoonotic epidemics and to build community resilience 'epizoonotic' diseases.

Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

PubMed

Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2014-10-15

The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Existential Threat or Dissociative Response? Examining Defensive Avoidance of Point-of-Care Testing Devices Through a Terror Management Theory Framework.

PubMed

Dunne, Simon; Gallagher, Pamela; Matthews, Anne

2015-01-01

Using a terror management theory framework, this study investigated if providing mortality reminders or self-esteem threats would lead participants to exhibit avoidant responses toward a point-of-care testing device for cardiovascular disease risk and if the nature of the device served to diminish the existential threat of cardiovascular disease. One hundred and twelve participants aged 40-55 years completed an experimental questionnaire. Findings indicated that participants were not existentially threatened by established terror management methodologies, potentially because of cross-cultural variability toward such methodologies. Highly positive appraisals of the device also suggest that similar technologies may beneficially affect the uptake of screening behaviors.

Science framework for the conservation and restoration strategy of DOI secretarial order 3336: Utilizing resilience and resistance concepts to assess threats to sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse, prioritize conservation and restoration actions, and inform management strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, Jeanne C.; Campbell, Steve; Carlson, John; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Clause, Karen J.; Dinkins, Jonathan B.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Espinosa, Shawn; Griffin, Kathleen A.; Christiansen, Thomas J.; Crist, Michele R.; Hanser, Steven E.; Havlina, Douglas W.; Henke, Kenneth F.; Hennig, Jacob D.; Kurth, Laurie L.; Maestas, Jeremy D.; Mayer, Kenneth E.; Manning, Mary E.; Mealor, Brian A.; McCarthy, Clinton; Pellant, Mike; Prentice, Karen L.; Perea, Marco A.; Pyke, David A.; Wiechman , Lief A.; Wuenschel, Amarina

2016-01-01

The Science Framework for the Conservation and Restoration Strategy of the Department of the Interior, Secretarial Order 3336 (SO 3336), Rangeland Fire Prevention, Management and Restoration, provides a strategic, multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies across the sagebrush biome. The emphasis of this version is on sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse. The Science Framework uses a six step process in which sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive annual grasses is linked to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. The predominant ecosystem and anthropogenic threats are assessed, and a habitat matrix is developed that helps decision makers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies at regional and local scales. Areas are prioritized for management action using a geospatial approach that overlays resilience and resistance, species habitat information, and predominant threats. Decision tools are discussed for determining the suitability of priority areas for management and the most appropriate management actions at regional to local scales. The Science Framework and geospatial crosscut are intended to complement the mitigation strategies associated with the Greater Sage-Grouse Land Use Plan amendments for the Department of the Interior Bureaus, such as the Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Forest Service.

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena; Oomen, Agnes; Bos, Peter; Peijnenburg, Willie; van Tongeren, Martie; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Brunelli, Andrea; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Tran, Lang; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-10-01

Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction and Informative Risk Factor Selection of Bone Diseases.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Li, Xiaoyi; Ramanathan, Murali; Zhang, Aidong

2015-01-01

With the booming of healthcare industry and the overwhelming amount of electronic health records (EHRs) shared by healthcare institutions and practitioners, we take advantage of EHR data to develop an effective disease risk management model that not only models the progression of the disease, but also predicts the risk of the disease for early disease control or prevention. Existing models for answering these questions usually fall into two categories: the expert knowledge based model or the handcrafted feature set based model. To fully utilize the whole EHR data, we will build a framework to construct an integrated representation of features from all available risk factors in the EHR data and use these integrated features to effectively predict osteoporosis and bone fractures. We will also develop a framework for informative risk factor selection of bone diseases. A pair of models for two contrast cohorts (e.g., diseased patients versus non-diseased patients) will be established to discriminate their characteristics and find the most informative risk factors. Several empirical results on a real bone disease data set show that the proposed framework can successfully predict bone diseases and select informative risk factors that are beneficial and useful to guide clinical decisions.

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 2: System Safety Concepts, Guidelines, and Implementation Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Feather, Martin; Rutledge, Peter; Sen, Dev; Youngblood, Robert

2015-01-01

This is the second of two volumes that collectively comprise the NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1 (NASASP-210-580) was prepared for the purpose of presenting the overall framework for System Safety and for providing the general concepts needed to implement the framework. Volume 2 provides guidance for implementing these concepts as an integral part of systems engineering and risk management. This guidance addresses the following functional areas: 1.The development of objectives that collectively define adequate safety for a system, and the safety requirements derived from these objectives that are levied on the system. 2.The conduct of system safety activities, performed to meet the safety requirements, with specific emphasis on the conduct of integrated safety analysis (ISA) as a fundamental means by which systems engineering and risk management decisions are risk-informed. 3.The development of a risk-informed safety case (RISC) at major milestone reviews to argue that the systems safety objectives are satisfied (and therefore that the system is adequately safe). 4.The evaluation of the RISC (including supporting evidence) using a defined set of evaluation criteria, to assess the veracity of the claims made therein in order to support risk acceptance decisions.

Premise to Implement a Grading System to Evaluate the Sanitary Level in Food Service Establishments in Milan, Italy

PubMed Central

Razzini, Katia

2015-01-01

The regulatory framework of the official controls on food safety, the criteria and methods from the planning of interventions in the field of official control to the management of information flows, and the standards described in the operation manual of the local competent authorities drafted by the Lombardy Region (2011) were evaluated. A questionnaire consisting of n. 10 questions with multiple answers draft in partnership with EPAM (the Association of Provincial Public Retail and catering businesses in Milan) to n. 107 Food service establishments of Milan shows that 92% of managers approve the introduction of a grading system. The regulatory framework is planned to support the implementation of risk assignment, unfortunately the attribution of risk category of retail and catering businesses is still different among regions. PMID:27800403

Assessing the benefits and risks of translocations in changing environments: a genetic perspective

PubMed Central

Weeks, Andrew R; Sgro, Carla M; Young, Andrew G; Frankham, Richard; Mitchell, Nicki J; Miller, Kim A; Byrne, Margaret; Coates, David J; Eldridge, Mark D B; Sunnucks, Paul; Breed, Martin F; James, Elizabeth A; Hoffmann, Ary A

2011-01-01

Translocations are being increasingly proposed as a way of conserving biodiversity, particularly in the management of threatened and keystone species, with the aims of maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function under the combined pressures of habitat fragmentation and climate change. Evolutionary genetic considerations should be an important part of translocation strategies, but there is often confusion about concepts and goals. Here, we provide a classification of translocations based on specific genetic goals for both threatened species and ecological restoration, separating targets based on ‘genetic rescue’ of current population fitness from those focused on maintaining adaptive potential. We then provide a framework for assessing the genetic benefits and risks associated with translocations and provide guidelines for managers focused on conserving biodiversity and evolutionary processes. Case studies are developed to illustrate the framework. PMID:22287981

Evaluation and Management Strategies for Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs) in Drinking Water Aquifers: Perspectives from Impacted U.S. Northeast Communities.

PubMed

Guelfo, Jennifer L; Marlow, Thomas; Klein, David M; Savitz, David A; Frickel, Scott; Crimi, Michelle; Suuberg, Eric M

2018-06-01

Multiple Northeast U.S. communities have discovered per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in drinking water aquifers in excess of health-based regulatory levels or advisories. Regional stakeholders (consultants, regulators, and others) need technical background and tools to mitigate risks associated with exposure to PFAS-affected groundwater. The aim was to identify challenges faced by stakeholders to extend best practices to other regions experiencing PFAS releases and to establish a framework for research strategies and best management practices. Management challenges were identified during stakeholder engagement events connecting attendees with PFAS experts in focus areas, including fate/transport, toxicology, and regulation. Review of the literature provided perspective on challenges in all focus areas. Publicly available data were used to characterize sources of PFAS impacts in groundwater and conduct a geospatial case study of potential source locations relative to drinking water aquifers in Rhode Island. Challenges in managing PFAS impacts in drinking water arise from the large number of relevant PFASs, unconsolidated information regarding sources, and limited studies on some PFASs. In particular, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding human health impacts of PFASs. Frameworks sequentially evaluating exposure, persistence, and treatability can prioritize PFASs for evaluation of potential human health impacts. A regional case study illustrates how risk-based, geospatial methods can help address knowledge gaps regarding potential sources of PFASs in drinking water aquifers and evaluate risk of exposure. Lessons learned from stakeholder engagement can assist in developing strategies for management of PFASs in other regions. However, current management practices primarily target a subset of PFASs for which in-depth studies are available. Exposure to less-studied, co-occurring PFASs remains largely unaddressed. Frameworks leveraging the current state of science can be applied toward accelerating this process and reducing exposure to total PFASs in drinking water, even as research regarding health effects continues. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2727.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2015-01-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro‐level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro‐level psychology to examine individual‐level risk‐related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk‐specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory‐based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso‐level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. PMID:26720858

Meteorological risks are drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Vanwindekens, Frédéric; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Frutos de Cachorro, Julia; Buysse, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and rain storms are projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The research hypothesis of the MERINOVA project is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a chain of risk approach. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual maxima of meteorological variables based on a location-, scale- and shape-parameter that determine the center of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels has yielded maps of temperature extremes, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different crop stages were related to arable yields. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed on different layers of spatial information that include inter alia meteorology, soil-landscapes, crop cover and management. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem is also determined by risk management. The types of agricultural risk and their relative importance differ across sectors and farm types as elucidated by questionnaires and focus groups. Risk types are distinguished according to production, market, institutional, financial and liability risks. A portfolio of potential strategies was identified at farm, market and policy level. In conclusion, MERINOVA provides for a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. A strong expert and end-user network is established to help disseminate and exploit project results to meet user needs.

Can't get no satisfaction? Will pay for performance help?: toward an economic framework for understanding performance-based risk-sharing agreements for innovative medical products.

PubMed

Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2010-01-01

This article examines performance-based risk-sharing agreements for pharmaceuticals from a theoretical economic perspective. We position these agreements as a form of coverage with evidence development. New performance-based risk sharing could produce a more efficient market equilibrium, achieved by adjustment of the price post-launch to reflect outcomes combined with a new approach to the post-launch costs of evidence collection. For this to happen, the party best able to manage or to bear specific risks must do so. Willingness to bear risk will depend not only on ability to manage it, but on the degree of risk aversion. We identify three related frameworks that provide relevant insights: value of information, real option theory and money-back guarantees. We identify four categories of risk sharing: budget impact, price discounting, outcomes uncertainty and subgroup uncertainty. We conclude that a value of information/real option framework is likely to be the most helpful approach for understanding the costs and benefits of risk sharing. There are a number of factors that are likely to be crucial in determining if performance-based or risk-sharing agreements are efficient and likely to become more important in the future: (i) the cost and practicality of post-launch evidence collection relative to pre-launch; (ii) the feasibility of coverage with evidence development without a pre-agreed contract as to how the evidence will be used to adjust price, revenues or use, in which uncertainty around the pay-off to additional research will reduce the incentive for the manufacturer to collect the information; (iii) the difficulty of writing and policing risk-sharing agreements; (iv) the degree of risk aversion (and therefore opportunity to trade) on the part of payers and manufacturers; and (v) the extent of transferability of data from one country setting to another to support coverage with evidence development in a risk-sharing framework. There is no doubt that--in principle--risk sharing can provide manufacturers and payers additional real options that increase overall efficiency. Given the lack of empirical evidence on the success of schemes already agreed and on the issues we set out above, it is too early to tell if the recent surge of interest in these arrangements is likely to be a trend or only a fad.

Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management.

PubMed

Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Naito, Wataru; Tanaka, Yoshinari; Kamo, Masashi

2013-11-01

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

2008-09-01

The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework

PubMed Central

Gushulak, BD; Weekers, J; MacPherson, DW

2010-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events. PMID:22460280

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

PubMed

Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

2009-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events.

Role of Genetic Testing for Inherited Prostate Cancer Risk: Philadelphia Prostate Cancer Consensus Conference 2017.

PubMed

Giri, Veda N; Knudsen, Karen E; Kelly, William K; Abida, Wassim; Andriole, Gerald L; Bangma, Chris H; Bekelman, Justin E; Benson, Mitchell C; Blanco, Amie; Burnett, Arthur; Catalona, William J; Cooney, Kathleen A; Cooperberg, Matthew; Crawford, David E; Den, Robert B; Dicker, Adam P; Eggener, Scott; Fleshner, Neil; Freedman, Matthew L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Hoffman-Censits, Jean; Hurwitz, Mark D; Hyatt, Colette; Isaacs, William B; Kane, Christopher J; Kantoff, Philip; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Karsh, Lawrence I; Klein, Eric A; Lin, Daniel W; Loughlin, Kevin R; Lu-Yao, Grace; Malkowicz, S Bruce; Mann, Mark J; Mark, James R; McCue, Peter A; Miner, Martin M; Morgan, Todd; Moul, Judd W; Myers, Ronald E; Nielsen, Sarah M; Obeid, Elias; Pavlovich, Christian P; Peiper, Stephen C; Penson, David F; Petrylak, Daniel; Pettaway, Curtis A; Pilarski, Robert; Pinto, Peter A; Poage, Wendy; Raj, Ganesh V; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Robson, Mark E; Rosenberg, Matt T; Sandler, Howard; Sartor, Oliver; Schaeffer, Edward; Schwartz, Gordon F; Shahin, Mark S; Shore, Neal D; Shuch, Brian; Soule, Howard R; Tomlins, Scott A; Trabulsi, Edouard J; Uzzo, Robert; Vander Griend, Donald J; Walsh, Patrick C; Weil, Carol J; Wender, Richard; Gomella, Leonard G

2018-02-01

Purpose Guidelines are limited for genetic testing for prostate cancer (PCA). The goal of this conference was to develop an expert consensus-driven working framework for comprehensive genetic evaluation of inherited PCA in the multigene testing era addressing genetic counseling, testing, and genetically informed management. Methods An expert consensus conference was convened including key stakeholders to address genetic counseling and testing, PCA screening, and management informed by evidence review. Results Consensus was strong that patients should engage in shared decision making for genetic testing. There was strong consensus to test HOXB13 for suspected hereditary PCA, BRCA1/2 for suspected hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, and DNA mismatch repair genes for suspected Lynch syndrome. There was strong consensus to factor BRCA2 mutations into PCA screening discussions. BRCA2 achieved moderate consensus for factoring into early-stage management discussion, with stronger consensus in high-risk/advanced and metastatic setting. Agreement was moderate to test all men with metastatic castration-resistant PCA, regardless of family history, with stronger agreement to test BRCA1/2 and moderate agreement to test ATM to inform prognosis and targeted therapy. Conclusion To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive, multidisciplinary consensus statement to address a genetic evaluation framework for inherited PCA in the multigene testing era. Future research should focus on developing a working definition of familial PCA for clinical genetic testing, expanding understanding of genetic contribution to aggressive PCA, exploring clinical use of genetic testing for PCA management, genetic testing of African American males, and addressing the value framework of genetic evaluation and testing men at risk for PCA-a clinically heterogeneous disease.

Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

Creating a National Framework for Cybersecurity: An Analysis of Issues and Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-22

of those measures; and the associated field of professional endeavor. Virtually any element of cyberspace can be at risk , and the degree of...weaknesses in U.S. cybersecurity is an area of some controversy. However, some components appear to be sources of potentially significant risk because either...security into enterprise architecture, using risk management, and using metrics. These different approaches all have different strengths and weaknesses

Annual Plan - Fiscal Year 2009

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Includes Strategic Plan Update and Draft Plans for Oversight of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Based Upon the Enterprise Risk Management Integrated Framework Model Developed by the Committee of Sponsoring Orgs of the Treadway Commission

Incorporating cost-benefit analyses into software assurance planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, M. S.; Sigal, B.; Cornford, S. L.; Hutchinson, P.

2001-01-01

The objective is to use cost-benefit analyses to identify, for a given project, optimal sets of software assurance activities. Towards this end we have incorporated cost-benefit calculations into a risk management framework.

Vessel traffic safety in busy waterways: A case study of accidents in western shenzhen port.

PubMed

Mou, J M; Chen, P F; He, Y X; Yip, Tsz Leung; Li, W H; Tang, J; Zhang, H Z

2016-08-03

Throughout the world, busy waterways near large ports witness heavy vessel traffic in recent decades. The waterways are characterized by high risk in terms of loss of life, property, and pollution to environment. To facilitate maritime safety management with satisfactory efficiency and efficacy, the authors propose a framework of safety indexes to evaluate the risk level in busy waterways according to the accident severity, fatality rate and special indicators of maritime transportation. The safety indexes consist of Safety Evaluation Index (SEI) and Safety Warning Index (SWI), and are derived from the proposed risk criteria of Chinese vessel traffic. As a case study, data on vessel traffic accidents reported in the Western Shenzhen Port, South China from 1995 to 2015 are analyzed. The actual risk level of this area during the period is calculated under the framework. The implementation of the safety indexes indicate that the risk criteria and safety indexes are practicable and effective for the vessel traffic management. The methodology based on long-term accident data can significantly support the risk analysis in the macroscopic perspective for busy ports and waterways, such that SWI can act as threshold to trigger actions, while SEI can act as an indicator to measure safety status. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data Management Guidance in the Context of Climate Risk-Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylak-Glassman, E.

2016-12-01

Climate risk-management, while a national issue, often occurs at a local level. To prepare for the effects of climate change, community decision-makers require a diverse set of data from historical records, social science, observations, and models, much of which is collected and curated by Federal agencies. The President's Climate Action Plan calls for building stronger and safer communities and infrastructure to prepare the United States for the impacts of climate change, and the Obama Administration has prioritized making Federal data more discoverable, accessible, and usable to inform both climate risk-management, and other data-informed decisions. In order to understand the state of guidance for data provision for climate risk-management, we analyzed Federal, agency, and interagency documents such as the Common Framework for Earth-Observation Data, related to open data, climate data, and data management in general. We examined guidance related to the principles of data discovery, access, and ease of use, as well as the data management categories of application programming interfaces, controlled vocabularies and ontologies, metadata, persistent dataset identifiers, preservation, and usage metrics. This analysis showed both the extent of guidance provided, as well as gaps in guidance. Following the literature review, we held structured conversations with Federal climate data managers and tool developers to identify areas where further efforts could enhance provision of agency data for climate risk-management. Our analysis can be used by data managers to understand how various data management practices can help improve climate risk-management and where to find further guidance.

Engineering Change Management Method Framework in Mechanical Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stekolschik, Alexander

2016-11-01

Engineering changes make an impact on different process chains in and outside the company, and lead to most error costs and time shifts. In fact, 30 to 50 per cent of development costs result from technical changes. Controlling engineering change processes can help us to avoid errors and risks, and contribute to cost optimization and a shorter time to market. This paper presents a method framework for controlling engineering changes at mechanical engineering companies. The developed classification of engineering changes and accordingly process requirements build the basis for the method framework. The developed method framework comprises two main areas: special data objects managed in different engineering IT tools and process framework. Objects from both areas are building blocks that can be selected to the overall business process based on the engineering process type and change classification. The process framework contains steps for the creation of change objects (both for overall change and for parts), change implementation, and release. Companies can select singleprocess building blocks from the framework, depending on the product development process and change impact. The developed change framework has been implemented at a division (10,000 employees) of a big German mechanical engineering company.

A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

The Collaborative Assessment and Management of Suicidality (CAMS): An Evolving Evidence-Based Clinical Approach to Suicidal Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jobes, David A.

2012-01-01

The Collaborative Assessment and Management of Suicidality (CAMS) is an evidence-based clinical intervention that has significantly evolved over 25 years of clinical research. CAMS is best understood as a therapeutic framework that emphasizes a unique collaborative assessment and treatment planning process between the suicidal patient and…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aalst, M.

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts atmore » risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions. There are several ways in which the World Bank Group can continue helping its clients better manage climate risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development: Integrating climate risk management into the project cycle, by adopting early risk identification (for instance by applying a quick and simple risk-screening tool) and following up throughout the design process if necessary. Integrating climate risk management into country and sector dialogues, especially in countries and sectors that are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing internal support for and coordination of climate risk management by, for example, expanding analytical work and capacity for cross-support by the Global Climate Change Team and the Hazard Management Unit of the World Bank and by actively developing climate risk management activities within regional departments. Supporting the establishment of proper financing mechanisms for adaptation, using, for example, the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. New funding mechanisms created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and being made operational by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as the Kyoto Protocol, should be used to leverage maximum adaptation results within the Bank's broad range of development activities and investments. By enhancing climate risk management, the World Bank Group will be able to address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events. In that way, climate risk management will not only guard the Bank's investments in a changing climate but will also improve the impact of development efforts right now.« less

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

Hours of work and rest in the rail industry.

PubMed

Anderson, C; Grunstein, R R; Rajaratnam, S M W

2013-06-01

Currently, the National Transport Commission is considering four options to form the regulatory framework for rail safety within Australia with respect to fatigue. While the National Transport Commission currently recommends no limitations around hours of work or rest, we provide evidence which suggests regulatory frameworks should incorporate a traditional hours of service regulation over more flexible policies. Our review highlights: Shift durations >12 h are associated with a doubling of risk for accident and injury. Fatigue builds cumulatively with each successive shift where rest in between is inadequate (<12 h). A regulatory framework for fatigue management within the rail industry should prescribe limits on hours of work and rest, including maximum shift duration and successive number of shifts. Appropriately, validated biomathematical models and technologies may be used as a part of a fatigue management system, to augment the protection afforded by limits on hours of work and rest. A comprehensive sleep disorder screening and management programme should form an essential component of any regulatory framework. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Considerations to improve the safety of cervical spine manual therapy.

PubMed

Hutting, Nathan; Kerry, Roger; Coppieters, Michel W; Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M

2018-02-01

Manipulation and mobilisation of the cervical spine are well established interventions in the management of patients with headache and/or neck pain. However, their benefits are accompanied by potential, yet rare risks in terms of serious adverse events, including neurovascular insult to the brain. A recent international framework for risk assessment and management offers directions in the mitigation of this risk by facilitating sound clinical reasoning. The aim of this article is to critically reflect on and summarize the current knowledge about cervical spine manual therapy and to provide guidance for clinical reasoning for cervical spine manual therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Susanna D.

As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

DOE PAGES

Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; ...

2015-02-27

A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

Robustness and Recovery of Lifeline Infrastructure and Ecosystem Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, U.; Ganguly, A. R.

2015-12-01

Disruptive events, both natural and man-made, can have widespread impacts on both natural systems and lifeline infrastructure networks leading to the loss of biodiversity and essential functionality, respectively. Projected sea-level rise and climate change can further increase the frequency and severity of large-scale floods on urban-coastal megacities. Nevertheless, Failure in infrastructure systems can trigger cascading impacts on dependent ecosystems, and vice-versa. An important consideration in the behavior of the isolated networks and inter-connected networks following disruptive events is their resilience, or the ability of the network to "bounce back" to a pre-disaster state. Conventional risk analysis and subsequent risk management frameworks have focused on identifying the components' vulnerability and strengthening of the isolated components to withstand these disruptions. But high interconnectedness of these systems, and evolving nature of hazards, particularly in the context of climate extremes, make the component level analysis unrealistic. In this study, we discuss the complex network-based resilience framework to understand fragility and recovery strategies for infrastructure systems impacted by climate-related hazards. We extend the proposed framework to assess the response of ecological networks to multiple species loss and design the restoration management framework to identify the most efficient restoration sequence of species, which can potentially lead to disproportionate gains in biodiversity.

Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Gilbert F.

1980-01-01

Presented are perspectives on the emergence of environmental problems. Six major trends in scientific thinking are identified including: holistic approaches to examining environments, life support systems, resource management, risk assessment, streamlined methods for monitoring environmental change, and emphasis on the global framework. (Author/SA)

Dynamic Information Management and Exchange for Command and Control Applications: A Framework in Support of Emergency Management for Specified and Unspecified Emergencies

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

64 selections, 128 aggregations and 510 join operators . 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 T im e...DC, USA, 2001, IEEE Computer So- ciety, pp. 391–398. [66] E. Network and I. S. A. (ENISA), Inventory of risk managemen - t /risk assessment methods, Sept... Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that

Framing ethical acceptability: a problem with nuclear waste in Canada.

PubMed

Wilding, Ethan T

2012-06-01

Ethical frameworks are often used in professional fields as a means of providing explicit ethical guidance for individuals and institutions when confronted with ethically important decisions. The notion of an ethical framework has received little critical attention, however, and the concept subsequently lends itself easily to misuse and ambiguous application. This is the case with the 'ethical framework' offered by Canada's Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), the crown-corporation which owns and is responsible for the long-term management of Canada's high-level nuclear fuel waste. It makes a very specific claim, namely that it is managing Canada's long-lived radioactive nuclear fuel waste in an ethically responsible manner. According to this organization, what it means to behave in an ethically responsible manner is to act and develop policy in accordance with its ethical framework. What, then, is its ethical framework, and can it be satisfied? In this paper I will show that the NWMO's ethical and social framework is deeply flawed in two respects: (a) it fails to meet the minimum requirements of a code of ethic or ethical framework by offering only questions, and no principles or rules of conduct; and (b) if posed as principles or rules of conduct, some of its questions are unsatisfiable. In particular, I will show that one of its claims, namely that it seek informed consent from individuals exposed to risk of harm from nuclear waste, cannot be satisfied as formulated. The result is that the NWMO's ethical framework is not, at present, ethically acceptable.

Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.

PubMed

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2016-05-01

Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit-cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks.

Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks

PubMed Central

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2016-01-01

Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3–22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit–cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks. PMID:27293781

Prioritization of disasters and their management in Rwanda.

PubMed

Rugigana, E; Nyirazinyoye, L; Umubyeyi, A; Nsengiyumva, J B; Kanyandekwe, C; Ntahobakulira, I

2013-06-01

Rwanda has been experiencing quite a significant number of disastrous events of both natural and man-made origin in the last 2 decades. Many cases of disasters are particularly linked to the geographic, historical and socio-cultural aspects of the country. The overall objective of the present article is to perform a situation analysis of disasters in Rwanda and to highlight the institutional and legal framework of disaster management. An assessment questionnaire focused on the current capacity, institutional frameworks and on-going initiatives for disaster management at country level and operational level was administered. The assessment was descriptive and used mainly qualitative methods. These included review of records (country policies and policy briefs, programme documents), interviews with key informants from line ministries, and interviews with key informants from stakeholder agencies. The Rwandan hazard profile, its vulnerability and capacity assessment shows top seven disasters which are related to epidemics, hails storms/floods; roads accidents; environmental degradation and earthquakes/volcanic eruption. Currently, the Institutional framework for disaster management and response is coordinated by Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs through the Rwanda National Disasters Operation Center. Although disaster risk reduction has been integrated into sustainable policies and plans, most districts do not have adequate capacity to plan for disasters and the majority of districts disaster committees have not yet been trained. Rwanda has established a legal and institutional framework for disasters management. There is a need to build capacity in disaster management at operational level (District).

Vulnerability and fragility risk indices for non-renewable resources.

PubMed

Miller, Anne E; Steele, Nicholas; Tobin, Benjamin W

2018-06-02

Protected areas are tasked with mitigating impacts to a wide range of invaluable resources. These resources are often subject to a variety of potential natural and anthropogenic impacts that require monitoring efforts and management actions to minimize the degradation of these resources. However, due to insufficient funding and staff, managers often have to prioritize efforts, leaving some resources at higher risk to impact. Attempts to address this issue have resulted in numerous qualitative and semi-quantitative frameworks for prioritization based on resource vulnerability. Here, we add to those methods by modifying an internationally standardized vulnerability framework, quantify both resource vulnerability, susceptibility to human disturbance, and fragility, susceptibility to natural disturbance. This modified framework quantifies impacts through a six-step process: identifying the resource and management objectives, identifying exposure and sensitivity indicators, define scoring criteria for each indicator, collect and compile data, calculate indices, and prioritize sites for mitigations. We applied this methodology to two resource types in Grand Canyon National Park (GRCA): caves and fossil sites. Three hundred sixty-five cave sites and 127 fossil sites in GRCA were used for this analysis. The majority of cave and fossil sites scored moderate to low vulnerability (0-6 out of 10 points) and moderate to low fragility for fossils. The percentage of sites that fell in the high-priority range was 5.5% for fossils and 21.9% for caves. These results are consistent with the known state of these resources and the results present a tool for managers to utilize to prioritize monitoring and management needs.

Strategic appraisal of environmental risks: a contrast between the United Kingdom's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and its Committee on Radioactive Waste Management.

PubMed

Dietz, Simon; Morton, Alec

2011-01-01

In this article, we compare two high-profile strategic policy reviews undertaken for the U.K. government on environmental risks: radioactive waste management and climate change. These reviews took very different forms, both in terms of analytic approach and deliberation strategy. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change was largely an exercise in expert modeling, building, within a cost-benefit framework, an argument for immediate reductions in carbon emissions. The Committee on Radioactive Waste Management, on the other hand, followed a much more explicitly deliberative and participative process, using multicriteria decision analysis to bring together scientific evidence and stakeholder and public values. In this article, we ask why the two reviews were different, and whether the differences are justified. We conclude that the differences were mainly due to political context, rather than the underpinning science, and as a consequence that, while in our view "fit for purpose," they would both have been stronger had they been less different. Stern's grappling with ethical issues could have been strengthened by a greater degree of public and stakeholder engagement, and the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management's handling of issues of uncertainty could have been strengthened by the explicitly probabilistic framework of Stern. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

2018-02-01

Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

Influence of the economy crisis on project cost management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simankina, Tatyana; Ćetković, Jasmina; Verstina, Natalia; Evseev, Evgeny

2017-10-01

Economy crisis significantly affects primarily the project cost management. The article considers the problems of project management in the field of housing under conditions of economy crisis. Project budgets are reduced, their mutual interference grows and framework of risks changes. Apparently, specific approaches are required to be developed to optimize the expenses and guarantee the project implementation within the approved budget. There is considered domestic and foreign experience in terms of project cost management with involvement of BIM technologies.

A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children

PubMed Central

Oak, Eileen

2016-01-01

This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies. PMID:27559223

Building a Practical Framework for Enterprise-Wide Security Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-04-28

management. They have found that current efforts to manage security vulnerabilities and security risks only take an enterprise so far, with results...analyzed reports to determine the cause of the increase. Slide 5 © 2004 by Carnegie Mellon University Version 1.0 Secure IT 2004 - page 5 Attack...Nearly 1 in 5 of those surveyed reported that none of their IT staff have any formal security training. [A survey of 896 Computing Technology

A risk-informed decision framework for setting environmental windows for dredging projects.

PubMed

Suedel, Burton C; Kim, Jongbum; Clarke, Douglas G; Linkov, Igor

2008-09-15

Sediment dredging is necessary to sustain navigation infrastructure in ports and harbor areas. In the United States alone between 250 and 300 million cubic yards of sediment are dredged annually. Dredging activities may cause stress on aquatic biota by locally increasing turbidity and suspended sediment concentrations, physically disturbing habitat by elevated sedimentation rates, interfering in migratory behaviors, and hydraulically entraining bottom dwelling organisms. Environmental windows are a management practice used to alleviate such stresses on resident and transient biota by placing temporal restrictions on the conduct of dredging operations. Adherence to environmental windows can significantly inflate costs for project sponsors and local stakeholders. Since their inception following passage of NEPA in 1969 the process for setting environmental windows has not followed structured procedures and represents an example of the difficulty inherent in achieving a balance between biological resource protection and cost-effective construction and maintenance of navigation infrastructure. Recent developments in the fields of risk assessment for non-chemical stressors as well as experience in implementing structured risk-informed decision-making tools for sediment and natural resource management are summarized in this paper in relation to setting environmental windows. Combining risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis allows development of a framework for an objective process consistent with recommendations by the National Academy of Sciences for setting environmental windows. A hypothetical application of the framework for protection of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in San Francisco Bay is discussed.

The accidental introduction of invasive animals as hitchhikers through inanimate pathways: a New Zealand perspective.

PubMed

Toy, S J; Newfield, M J

2010-04-01

Hitchhiker organisms have been known since the earliest days of international travel, but changes in global trade mean that there are more now than ever before. They include a number of serious invasive species and are among the most difficult of quarantine problems to manage. Invasive animals transported as hitchhikers, other than plant pests, fall largely outside the international frameworks for biosecurity risk analysis. However, this is not necessarily a barrierto either risk analysis or effective management. While there are a number of challenges in managing hitchhiker organisms, the risk analysis tools that are needed already exist. However, opening up access to appropriate information, increasing international cooperation and developing new biosecurity treatments suitable for large-volume pathways will enable significant improvements.

“Manejar la Situacion”: Partner Notification, Partner Management, and Conceptual Frameworks for HIV/STI Control Among MSM in Peru

PubMed Central

Clark, Jesse L.; Perez-Brumer, Amaya; Salazar, Ximena

2015-01-01

Previous analyses of Partner Notification (PN) have addressed individual, interpersonal, social, and structural issues influencing PN outcomes but have paid less attention to the conceptual framework of PN itself. We conducted 18 individual interviews and 8 group discussions, in a two-stage qualitative research process, to explore the meanings and contexts of PN for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and men who have sex with men and women (MSMW) in Lima, Peru. Participants described PN as the open disclosure of private, potentially stigmatizing information that could strengthen or disrupt a partnership, structured by the tension between concealment and revelation. In addition to informing partners of an STI diagnosis, the act of PN was believed to reveal other potentially stigmatizing information related to sexual identity and practices such as homosexuality, promiscuity, and HIV co-infection. In this context, the potential development of visible, biological STI symptoms represented a risk for disruption of the boundary between secrecy and disclosure that could result in involuntary disclosure of STI status. To address the conflict between concealment and disclosure, participants cited efforts to “manejar la situacion” [manage the situation] by controlling the biological risks of STI exposure without openly disclosing STI status. We use this concept of “managing the situation” as a practical and theoretical framework for comprehensive Partner Management for HIV/STI control systems among MSM in Latin America. PMID:25821149

"Manejar la Situacion": Partner Notification, Partner Management, and Conceptual Frameworks for HIV/STI Control Among MSM in Peru.

PubMed

Clark, Jesse L; Perez-Brumer, Amaya; Salazar, Ximena

2015-12-01

Previous analyses of partner notification (PN) have addressed individual, interpersonal, social, and structural issues influencing PN outcomes but have paid less attention to the conceptual framework of PN itself. We conducted 18 individual interviews and 8 group discussions, in a two-stage qualitative research process, to explore the meanings and contexts of PN for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and men who have sex with men and women (MSMW) in Lima, Peru. Participants described PN as the open disclosure of private, potentially stigmatizing information that could strengthen or disrupt a partnership, structured by the tension between concealment and revelation. In addition to informing partners of an STI diagnosis, the act of PN was believed to reveal other potentially stigmatizing information related to sexual identity and practices such as homosexuality, promiscuity, and HIV co-infection. In this context, the potential development of visible, biological STI symptoms represented a risk for disruption of the boundary between secrecy and disclosure that could result in involuntary disclosure of STI status. To address the conflict between concealment and disclosure, participants cited efforts to "manejar la situacion" (manage the situation) by controlling the biological risks of STI exposure without openly disclosing STI status. We use this concept of "managing the situation" as a practical and theoretical framework for comprehensive Partner Management for HIV/STI control systems among MSM in Latin America.

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

PubMed

Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

2015-01-01

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

US strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making

Treesearch

V. Alaric Sample; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge; (2) engage internal agency resources and external partners in the development of options and solutions; and (3) manage forest resources for resilience, not just in terms of natural ecosystems but in affected human communities as well. We describe an approach...

A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm

Treesearch

Christopher J. Dunn; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2017-01-01

The impacts of wildfires have increased in recent decades because of historical forest and fire management, a rapidly changing climate, and an increasingly populated wildland urban interface. This increasingly complex fire environment highlights the importance of developing robust tools to support risk-informed decision making. While tools have been developed to aid...

Storage management in Ada. Three reports. Volume 1: Storage management in Ada as a risk to the development of reliable software. Volume 2: Relevant aspects of language. Volume 3: Requirements of the language versus manifestations of current implementations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Auty, David

1988-01-01

The risk to the development of program reliability is derived from the use of a new language and from the potential use of new storage management techniques. With Ada and associated support software, there is a lack of established guidelines and procedures, drawn from experience and common usage, which assume reliable behavior. The risk is identified and clarified. In order to provide a framework for future consideration of dynamic storage management on Ada, a description of the relevant aspects of the language is presented in two sections: Program data sources, and declaration and allocation in Ada. Storage-management characteristics of the Ada language and storage-management characteristics of Ada implementations are differentiated. Terms that are used are defined in a narrow and precise sense. The storage-management implications of the Ada language are described. The storage-management options available to the Ada implementor and the implications of the implementor's choice for the Ada programmer are also described.

Community control of alcohol and drug risk environments: the California experience.

PubMed

Wittman, Friedner D

2007-01-01

This article describes California community (city, county) uses of local powers and resources to prevent alcohol and other drug (AOD) problems by managing AOD risk environments in retail, public, and social domains. The article presents a promising framework used in several counties dedicated to community environment approaches to prevention. A case example of its application is provided. The framework has developed locally since the mid 1980s through AOD prevention demonstration grant research, policy advocacy, and state support for local initiatives. Data for this article come from the author's experience observing and consulting with California cities and counties over 25 years.

The benefits and costs of disclosing information about risks: what do we know about right-to-know?

PubMed

Beierle, Thomas C

2004-04-01

Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, the Environmental Protection Agency and other government agencies removed information from their web sites that they feared could invite attacks on critical public and private infrastructure. Accordingly, the benefits and costs of environmental information disclosure programs have come under increasing scrutiny. This article describes a framework for examining these benefits and costs and illustrates the framework through brief case studies of two information disclosure programs: risk management planning and materials accounting. The article outlines what we know and still need to find out about information disclosure programs in order to appropriately balance benefits and costs.

Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

2016-03-01

In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

A Framework to Evaluate Wildlife Feeding in Research, Wildlife Management, Tourism and Recreation.

PubMed

Dubois, Sara; Fraser, David

2013-10-11

Feeding of wildlife occurs in the context of research, wildlife management, tourism and in opportunistic ways. A review of examples shows that although feeding is often motivated by good intentions, it can lead to problems of public safety and conservation and be detrimental to the welfare of the animals. Examples from British Columbia illustrate the problems (nuisance animal activity, public safety risk) and consequences (culling, translocation) that often arise from uncontrolled feeding. Three features of wildlife feeding can be distinguished: the feasibility of control, the effects on conservation and the effects on animal welfare. An evaluative framework incorporating these three features was applied to examples of feeding from the literature. The cases of feeding for research and management purposes were generally found to be acceptable, while cases of feeding for tourism or opportunistic feeding were generally unacceptable. The framework should allow managers and policy-makers to distinguish acceptable from unacceptable forms of wildlife feeding as a basis for policy, public education and enforcement. Many harmful forms of wildlife feeding seem unlikely to change until they come to be seen as socially unacceptable.

Ecosystem Services in Risk Assessment and Management

EPA Science Inventory

The ecosystem services concept provides a comprehensive framework for considering ecosystems in decision making, for valuing the services they provide, and for ensuring that society can maintain a healthy and resilient natural environment now and for future generations. A global ...

50 CFR 600.1009 - Bids.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAGNUSON-STEVENS ACT PROVISIONS Fishing Capacity Reduction Framework § 600.1009 Bids...'s prompt scrapping. The scrapping will be at the reduction vessel owner's risk and expense. Upon...

50 CFR 600.1009 - Bids.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAGNUSON-STEVENS ACT PROVISIONS Fishing Capacity Reduction Framework § 600.1009 Bids... prompt scrapping. The scrapping will be at the reduction vessel owner's risk and expense. Upon completion...

50 CFR 600.1009 - Bids.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAGNUSON-STEVENS ACT PROVISIONS Fishing Capacity Reduction Framework § 600.1009 Bids...'s prompt scrapping. The scrapping will be at the reduction vessel owner's risk and expense. Upon...

32 CFR 159.6 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

....49, “Orchestrating, Synchronizing, and Integrating Program Management of Contingency Acquisition... increased risk or planned or ongoing military operations, including how PSC personnel will be rapidly... 13 shall provide the framework for the development of guidance and procedures without regard to the...

50 CFR 600.1009 - Bids.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAGNUSON-STEVENS ACT PROVISIONS Fishing Capacity Reduction Framework § 600.1009 Bids...'s prompt scrapping. The scrapping will be at the reduction vessel owner's risk and expense. Upon...

50 CFR 600.1009 - Bids.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MAGNUSON-STEVENS ACT PROVISIONS Fishing Capacity Reduction Framework § 600.1009 Bids...'s prompt scrapping. The scrapping will be at the reduction vessel owner's risk and expense. Upon...

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Risk Management and Adaptation Transition Mechanisms and Pathways in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, H. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding the values that drive current decision-making is essential to effective management of critical urban infrastructure. As urban infrastructure becomes increasingly interconnected, risks in one sector can translate to citywide risk in the flash of a photon or the blink of an eye. Approaches and goals of risk management vary across geographies. Administrators and residents attempt to reduce vulnerability to hazards and limit the scope of disasters in different ways in different contexts. Public and personal risk management decision making regimes are complex and often shifting. While the overarching goal is to try to reduce the level of risk faced by stakeholders in a particular locale, the conditions and changing character of local risk management decisions are affected by physical, economic and social factors. Opportunities for meaningful action are found at this nexus. To illuminate this nexus, this paper provides a detailed discussion and analysis of the New York City risk management regime and its trajectory as defined by local experts. The risk focus of the analysis is storm surge and flooding, and heat stress. The analysis examines the factors that enable movement and transition between different adaptive regimes, and on factors that support lock-in of current regime status The research utilizes a risk management framework based on four policy states developed for the Transformation and Resilience in the Urban Coast (TRUC) project (Solecki et al. 2016). "Collapse"; a state where there is no strategic risk planning; "Resistance"; risk planning that is directed at stability and aims at protecting current development pathways; "Resilience"; flexible planning that aims at introducing some changes to maintain current development, and "Transformation"; planning for fundamental changes in risk management including changing development choices and paths to accommodate uncertainty and future risk scenarios. (Solecki et al. 2016). To examine the risk management approach in New York City and the conditions for transition researchers gathered primary data - the results of an interactive risk management pathways workshop held in New York City and follow on, face-to-face interviews with local risk managers and stakeholders.

Workshop-based methodology to understand the risks in grain export inspection and certification.

PubMed

Wilson, John R; Vaegen-Lloyd, Jo-Roxy; Caponecchia, Carlo

2009-07-01

Much of the human factors contribution in risk assessment and risk management has been focused on systems or product safety; the profession has a much smaller research base regarding risks to do with regulation, certification and public policy, for example. This paper discusses an explicitly human factors contribution to understanding and managing risk for the inspection and export certification of grain and plant products in Australia. Training and awareness workshops, incorporating elements of focus groups, were run for 12 groups of staff and managers from the government department concerned. As well as training in risk management the workshops were used to come to an understanding of the work of the inspectors and other staff, to identify the sources of risk to the successful completion of their work and to develop the basis for a risk assessment framework and tool. The paper is methodological in focus and describes the development and running of the workshops and explains how a human factors oriented risk register was developed on the basis of identification of potential threats and errors in the system. Whilst the contribution of ergonomics is increasingly important as regards safety risk assessment, professionals have been less active as regards business, public policy and even engineering risk. This paper describes an approach within which a new domain was studied and the risks of all kinds identified, preparatory to development of a risk assessment tool.

It Takes a Village to Prevent Falls: Reconceptualizing Fall Prevention and Management for Older Adults

PubMed Central

Ganz, David A.; Alkema, Gretchen E.; Wu, Shinyi

2013-01-01

Systematic evidence reviews support the efficacy of physical activity programs and multifactorial strategies for fall prevention. However, community settings where fall prevention programs occur often differ substantially from the research settings in which efficacy was first demonstrated. Because of these differences, alternative approaches are needed to judge the adequacy of fall prevention activities occurring as part of standard medical care or community efforts. This paper uses the World Health Organization Innovative Care for Chronic Conditions (ICCC) framework to rethink how fall prevention programs might be implemented routinely in both medical and community settings. We highlight examples of innovative programs and policies that provide fall prevention strategies consistent with the ICCC framework, and provide evidence where available on the effects of these strategies on processes and outcomes of care. We close by proposing a “no wrong door” approach to fall prevention and management, in which older adults who are found to be at risk for falls in either a medical or community setting are linked to a standard fall risk evaluation across three domains (physical activity, medical risks and home safety). PMID:18676787

Finnish policy approach and measures for the promotion of sustainability in contaminated land management.

PubMed

Reinikainen, Jussi; Sorvari, Jaana; Tikkanen, Sarianne

2016-12-15

The importance of sustainability considerations in contaminated land management (CLM) is highlighted in policy frameworks all around the world. It means that while the reduction of risks to human health and the environment remains the main goal of CLM, a variety of other environmental factors as well as economic and social aspects have an increasing role in decision making. The success of finding the right balance between these considerations and incorporating them in the risk management approach defines the overall sustainability of the outcome. Although the concept and principles of sustainable CLM are already widely accepted, they have not been fully realized in national procedures. According to several studies this often results from the lack of explicit policy measures. A sound policy framework in conjunction with functional policy instruments is therefore a prerequisite for the attainment of sustainable practices. In Finland, the environmental administration along with other key stakeholder groups, including regional authorities, landowners, consultants, industries, research institutes and academia, has developed a national strategy and associated policy measures in order to promote sustainable CLM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Exploratory Study of Risk Factors for Implementing Service-Oriented IS Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Hsin-Lu; Lue, Chia-Pei

For IS project managers, how to implement the projects successfully is always a challenge. Further, as more and more enterprises start to develop service-oriented IS projects, it is essential to assess the sources and impacts of relevant risks. This research aimed at identifying risk factors related to service-oriented IS projects and analyzing the impact of these risk factors. Applying the SIMM (service integrated maturity model) proposed by IBM, customer service systems were selected to justify the research framework. Result showed that the risk factors influencing the adoption of service-oriented systems were insufficient technology planning, lack of expertise, ineffective project governance, and organizational misalignment, listed in the order of strength of influence. The findings of this research is expected to assist managers realize the risks and the importance of these risks that have to be noticed and controlled when making decisions on service-oriented systems adoption.

Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

PubMed Central

Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.

2015-01-01

There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431

Remote sensing of Qatar nearshore habitats with perspectives for coastal management.

PubMed

Warren, Christopher; Dupont, Jennifer; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed; Hobeichi, Sanaa; Palandro, David; Purkis, Sam

2016-04-30

A framework is proposed for utilizing remote sensing and ground-truthing field data to map benthic habitats in the State of Qatar, with potential application across the Arabian Gulf. Ideally the methodology can be applied to optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of mapping the nearshore environment to identify sensitive habitats, monitor for change, and assist in management decisions. The framework is applied to a case study for northeastern Qatar with a key focus on identifying high sensitivity coral habitat. The study helps confirm the presence of known coral and provides detail on a region in the area of interest where corals have not been previously mapped. Challenges for the remote sensing methodology associated with natural heterogeneity of the physical and biological environment are addressed. Recommendations on the application of this approach to coastal environmental risk assessment and management planning are discussed as well as future opportunities for improvement of the framework. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lessons learned from Applications of a Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty - the Short Term and the Long Term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Wi, S.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Rodriguez, D.; Garcia, L.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

The Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty is a hierarchical, staged framework for accomplishing climate change risk management in water resources system investments. Since its development for the World Bank Water Group two years ago, the framework has been applied to pilot demonstration projects in Nepal (hydropower generation), Mexico (water supply), Kenya (multipurpose reservoir operation), and Indonesia (flood risks to dam infrastructure). An important finding of the Decision Tree demonstration projects has been the need to present the risks/opportunities of climate change to stakeholders and investors in proportion to risks/opportunities and hazards of other kinds. This presentation will provide an overview of tools and techniques used to quantify risks/opportunities to each of the project types listed above, with special attention to those found most useful for exploration of the risk space. Careful exploration of the risk/opportunity space shows that some interventions would be better taken now, whereas risks/opportunities of other types would be better instituted incrementally in order to maintain reversibility and flexibility. A number of factors contribute to the robustness/flexibility tradeoff: available capital, magnitude and imminence of potential risk/opportunity, modular (or not) character of investment, and risk aversion of the decision maker, among others. Finally, in each case, nuance was required in the translation of Decision Tree findings into actionable policy recommendations. Though the narrative of stakeholder solicitation, engagement, and ultimate partnership is unique to each case, summary lessons are available from the portfolio that can serve as a guideline to the community of climate change risk managers.

Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

2013-01-01

Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

Hierarchical Marginal Land Assessment for Land Use Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Shujiang; Post, Wilfred M; Wang, Dali

2013-01-01

Marginal land provides an alternative potential for food and bioenergy production in the face of limited land resources; however, effective assessment of marginal lands is not well addressed. Concerns over environmental risks, ecosystem services and sustainability for marginal land have been widely raised. The objective of this study was to develop a hierarchical marginal land assessment framework for land use planning and management. We first identified major land functions linking production, environment, ecosystem services and economics, and then classified land resources into four categories of marginal land using suitability and limitations associated with major management goals, including physically marginal land,more » biologically marginal land, environmental-ecological marginal land, and economically marginal land. We tested this assessment framework in south-western Michigan, USA. Our results indicated that this marginal land assessment framework can be potentially feasible on land use planning for food and bioenergy production, and balancing multiple goals of land use management. We also compared our results with marginal land assessment from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and land capability classes (LCC) that are used in the US. The hierarchical assessment framework has advantages of quantitatively reflecting land functions and multiple concerns. This provides a foundation upon which focused studies can be identified in order to improve the assessment framework by quantifying high-resolution land functions associated with environment and ecosystem services as well as their criteria are needed to improve the assessment framework.« less

Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

PubMed

Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2017-11-01

Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jonathan D.; Zeff, Harrison B.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

2014-10-01

While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, "optimal" solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results suggest that a modest reduction in the projected rate of demand growth (from approximately 3% per year to 2.4%) will substantially improve the utilities' robustness to future uncertainty and reduce the potential for regional tensions. The proposed multistakeholder MORDM framework offers critical insights into the risks and challenges posed by rising water demands and hydrological uncertainties, providing a planning template for regions now forced to confront rapidly evolving water scarcity risks.

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Regulatory Risk Reduction for Advanced Reactor Technologies – FY2016 Status and Work Plan Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moe, Wayne Leland

2016-08-01

Millions of public and private sector dollars have been invested over recent decades to realize greater efficiency, reliability, and the inherent and passive safety offered by advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, a major challenge in experiencing those benefits resides in the existing U.S. regulatory framework. This framework governs all commercial nuclear plant construction, operations, and safety issues and is highly large light water reactor (LWR) technology centric. The framework must be modernized to effectively deal with non-LWR advanced designs if those designs are to become part of the U.S energy supply. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Reactor Technologiesmore » (ART) Regulatory Risk Reduction (RRR) initiative, managed by the Regulatory Affairs Department at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is establishing a capability that can systematically retire extraneous licensing risks associated with regulatory framework incompatibilities. This capability proposes to rely heavily on the perspectives of the affected regulated community (i.e., commercial advanced reactor designers/vendors and prospective owner/operators) yet remain tuned to assuring public safety and acceptability by regulators responsible for license issuance. The extent to which broad industry perspectives are being incorporated into the proposed framework makes this initiative unique and of potential benefit to all future domestic non-LWR applicants« less

A tiered, integrated biological and chemical monitoring framework for contaminants of emerging concern in aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Dodder, Nathan G; Mehinto, Alvine C; Denslow, Nancy D; Schlenk, Daniel; Snyder, Shane A; Weisberg, Stephen B

2016-07-01

The chemical-specific risk-based paradigm that informs monitoring and assessment of environmental contaminants does not apply well to the many thousands of new chemicals that are being introduced into ambient receiving waters. We propose a tiered framework that incorporates bioanalytical screening tools and diagnostic nontargeted chemical analysis to more effectively monitor for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The framework is based on a comprehensive battery of in vitro bioassays to first screen for a broad spectrum of CECs and nontargeted analytical methods to identify bioactive contaminants missed by the currently favored targeted analyses. Water quality managers in California have embraced this strategy with plans to further develop and test this framework in regional and statewide pilot studies on waterbodies that receive discharge from municipal wastewater treatment plants and stormwater runoff. In addition to directly informing decisions, the data obtained using this framework can be used to construct and validate models that better predict CEC occurrence and toxicity. The adaptive interplay among screening results, diagnostic assessment and predictive modeling will allow managers to make decisions based on the most current and relevant information, instead of extrapolating from parameters with questionable linkage to CEC impacts. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:540-547. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Application of biomarkers in cancer risk management: evaluation from stochastic clonal evolutionary and dynamic system optimization points of view.

PubMed

Li, Xiaohong; Blount, Patricia L; Vaughan, Thomas L; Reid, Brian J

2011-02-01

Aside from primary prevention, early detection remains the most effective way to decrease mortality associated with the majority of solid cancers. Previous cancer screening models are largely based on classification of at-risk populations into three conceptually defined groups (normal, cancer without symptoms, and cancer with symptoms). Unfortunately, this approach has achieved limited successes in reducing cancer mortality. With advances in molecular biology and genomic technologies, many candidate somatic genetic and epigenetic "biomarkers" have been identified as potential predictors of cancer risk. However, none have yet been validated as robust predictors of progression to cancer or shown to reduce cancer mortality. In this Perspective, we first define the necessary and sufficient conditions for precise prediction of future cancer development and early cancer detection within a simple physical model framework. We then evaluate cancer risk prediction and early detection from a dynamic clonal evolution point of view, examining the implications of dynamic clonal evolution of biomarkers and the application of clonal evolution for cancer risk management in clinical practice. Finally, we propose a framework to guide future collaborative research between mathematical modelers and biomarker researchers to design studies to investigate and model dynamic clonal evolution. This approach will allow optimization of available resources for cancer control and intervention timing based on molecular biomarkers in predicting cancer among various risk subsets that dynamically evolve over time.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the regional flood risk can be expressed in terms of expected annual damage and damages associated with a low probability of occurrence. We consider building protection measures explicitly as part of the consequence analysis of flood risk whereas spatial planning measures are already considered as explicit scenarios in the course of land-use change modelling.

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data limitations to date. Conclusions include a brief discussion of subsequent uncertainty and risk analysis methodologies, and a commentary on present and future applications of QRA in the management of the public health risks associated with the presence of pathogenic microorganisms in the food supply.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

17 CFR 200.2 - Statutory functions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... AND ETHICS; AND INFORMATION AND REQUESTS Organization and Program Management § 200.2 Statutory... Commission subject themselves to the risk of fine or imprisonment or both; and the issuing company, its... a comprehensive regulatory framework for investment companies and subjects their activities to...

17 CFR 200.2 - Statutory functions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... AND ETHICS; AND INFORMATION AND REQUESTS Organization and Program Management § 200.2 Statutory... Commission subject themselves to the risk of fine or imprisonment or both; and the issuing company, its... a comprehensive regulatory framework for investment companies and subjects their activities to...

17 CFR 200.2 - Statutory functions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... AND ETHICS; AND INFORMATION AND REQUESTS Organization and Program Management § 200.2 Statutory... Commission subject themselves to the risk of fine or imprisonment or both; and the issuing company, its... a comprehensive regulatory framework for investment companies and subjects their activities to...

Sustainable development of process facilities: state-of-the-art review of pollution prevention frameworks.

PubMed

Hossain, Khandoker A; Khan, Faisal I; Hawboldt, Kelly

2008-01-15

Pollution prevention (P2) strategy is receiving significant attention in industries all over the world, over end-of-pipe pollution control and management strategy. This paper is a review of the existing pollution prevention frameworks. The reviewed frameworks contributed significantly to bring the P2 approach into practice and gradually improved it towards a sustainable solution; nevertheless, some objectives are yet to be achieved. In this context, the paper has proposed a P2 framework 'IP2M' addressing the limitations for systematic implementation of the P2 program in industries at design as well as retrofit stages. The main features of the proposed framework are that, firstly, it has integrated cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) tool with other adequate P2 opportunity analysis tools in P2 opportunity analysis phase and secondly, it has re-used the risk-based cradle-to-gate LCA during the environmental evaluation of different P2 options. Furthermore, in multi-objective optimization phase, it simultaneously considers the P2 options with available end-of-pipe control options in order to select the sustainable environmental management option.

Flood Risk Management Policy in Scotland: Research Questions Past, Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Mark; Hastings, Emily; MacDonald, Jannette

2016-04-01

Scotland's Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) delivers accessible research and expert opinion to support the Scottish Government and its delivery partners in the development and implementation of water policy. It was established in 2011 by the Scottish Government (Rural and Environmental Science and Analytical Services) in recognition of a gap in the provision of short term advice and research to policy (development and implementation). Key policy areas include the Water Framework Directive, Floods Directive, Drinking Water Directive, Habitats Directive and Scotland's Hydro Nation Strategy. CREW is unique in its demand-driven and free service for policy makers and practitioners, managing the engagement between scientists, policy makers and practitioners to work effectively across this interface. The users of CREW are the Scottish Government, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Scottish Natural Heritage and Scottish Water. CREW has funded around 100 projects relating to water policy since its inception in 2011. Of these, a significant number relate to flood risk management policy. Based on a review of work to date, this poster will give an overview of these projects and a forward look at the challenges that remain. From learning from community led flood risk management to surface water flood forecasting for urban communities, links will be made between sustainable and traditional flood risk management while considering the perceptions of stakeholders to flood risk management. How can we deliver fully integrated flood risk management options? How policy makers, scientists and land managers can better work together will also be explored.

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

Violent reinjury risk assessment instrument (VRRAI) for hospital-based violence intervention programs.

PubMed

Kramer, Erik J; Dodington, James; Hunt, Ava; Henderson, Terrell; Nwabuo, Adaobi; Dicker, Rochelle; Juillard, Catherine

2017-09-01

Violent injury is the second most common cause of death among 15- to 24-year olds in the US. Up to 58% of violently injured youth return to the hospital with a second violent injury. Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs) have been shown to reduce injury recidivism through intensive case management. However, no validated guidelines for risk assessment strategies in the HVIP setting have been reported. We aimed to use qualitative methods to investigate the key components of risk assessments employed by HVIP case managers and to propose a risk assessment model based on this qualitative analysis. An established academic hospital-affiliated HVIP served as the nexus for this research. Thematic saturation was reached with 11 semi-structured interviews and two focus groups conducted with HVIP case managers and key informants identified through snowball sampling. Interactions were analyzed by a four-member team using Nvivo 10, employing the constant comparison method. Risk factors identified were used to create a set of models presented in two follow-up HVIP case managers and leadership focus groups. Eighteen key themes within seven domains (environment, identity, mental health, behavior, conflict, indicators of lower risk, and case management) and 141 potential risk factors for use in the risk assessment framework were identified. The most salient factors were incorporated into eight models that were presented to the HVIP case managers. A 29-item algorithmic structured professional judgment model was chosen. We identified four tiers of risk factors for violent reinjury that were incorporated into a proposed risk assessment instrument, VRRAI. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

DCS: A Case Study of Identification of Knowledge and Disposition Gaps Using Principles of Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Steinberg, Susan; Kundrot, Craig; Charles, John

2011-01-01

The Human Research Program (HRP) is formulated around the program architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. Review of accumulated evidence forms the basis for identification of high priority risks to human health and performance in space exploration. Gaps in knowledge or disposition are identified for each risk, and a portfolio of research tasks is developed to fill them. Deliverables from the tasks inform the evidence base with the ultimate goal of defining the level of risk and reducing it to an acceptable level. A comprehensive framework for gap identification, focus, and metrics has been developed based on principles of continuous risk management and clinical care. Research towards knowledge gaps improves understanding of the likelihood, consequence or timeframe of the risk. Disposition gaps include development of standards or requirements for risk acceptance, development of countermeasures or technology to mitigate the risk, and yearly technology assessment related to watching developments related to the risk. Standard concepts from clinical care: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and surveillance, can be used to focus gaps dealing with risk mitigation. The research plan for the new HRP Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) used the framework to identify one disposition gap related to establishment of a DCS standard for acceptable risk, two knowledge gaps related to DCS phenomenon and mission attributes, and three mitigation gaps focused on prediction, prevention, and new technology watch. These gaps were organized in this manner primarily based on target for closure and ease of organizing interim metrics so that gap status could be quantified. Additional considerations for the knowledge gaps were that one was highly design reference mission specific and the other gap was focused on DCS phenomenon.

Framework for continuous assessment and improvement of occupational health and safety issues in construction companies.

PubMed

Mahmoudi, Shahram; Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Soleimani, Esmaeil

2014-09-01

Construction industry is among the most hazardous industries, and needs a comprehensive and simple-to-administer tool to continuously assess and promote its health and safety performance. Through the study of various standard systems (mainly Health, Safety, and Environment Management System; Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series 180001; and British Standard, occupational health and safety management systems-Guide 8800), seven main elements were determined for the desired framework, and then, by reviewing literature, factors affecting these main elements were determined. The relative importance of each element and its related factors was calculated at organizational and project levels. The provided framework was then implemented in three construction companies, and results were compared together. THE RESULTS OF THE STUDY SHOW THAT THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE MAIN ELEMENTS AND THEIR RELATED FACTORS DIFFER BETWEEN ORGANIZATIONAL AND PROJECT LEVELS: leadership and commitment are the most important elements at the organization level, whereas risk assessment and management are most important at the project level. The present study demonstrated that the framework is easy to administer, and by interpreting the results, the main factors leading to the present condition of companies can be determined.

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

2012-12-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker ( Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyere, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

2012-01-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

Development of practice principles for the management of ongoing suicidal ideation in young people diagnosed with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Rice, Simon M; Simmons, Magenta B; Bailey, Alan P; Parker, Alexandra G; Hetrick, Sarah E; Davey, Christopher G; Phelan, Mark; Blaikie, Simon; Edwards, Jane

2014-01-01

There is a lack of clear guidance regarding the management of ongoing suicidality in young people experiencing major depressive disorder. This study utilised an expert consensus approach in identifying practice principles to complement relevant clinical guidelines for the treatment of major depressive disorder in young people. The study also sought to outline a broad treatment framework for clinical intervention with young people experiencing ongoing suicidal ideation. In-depth focus groups were undertaken with a specialist multidisciplinary clinical team (the Youth Mood Clinic at Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program, Melbourne) working with young people aged 15-25 years experiencing ongoing suicidal ideation. Each focus group was audio recorded and transcribed verbatim using orthographic conventions. Principles of grounded theory and thematic analysis were used to analyse and code the resultant data. The identified codes were subsequently synthesised into eight practice principles reflecting engagement and consistency of care, ongoing risk assessment and documentation, individualised crisis planning, engaging systems of support, engendering hopefulness, development of adaptive coping, management of acute risk, and consultation and supervision. The identified practice principles provide a broad management framework, and may assist to improve treatment consistency and clinical management of young people experiencing ongoing suicidal ideation. The practice principles may be of use to health professionals working within a team-based setting involved in the provision of care, even if peripherally, to young people with ongoing suicidal ideation. Findings address the lack of treatment consistency and shared terminology and may provide containment and guidance to multidisciplinary clinicians working with this at-risk group.

Case Managers for High-Risk, High-Cost Patients as Agents and Street-Level Bureaucrats.

PubMed

Swanson, Jeffrey; Weissert, William G

2017-08-01

Case management programs often designate a nurse or social worker to take responsibility for guiding care when patients are expected to be expensive or risk a major decline. We hypothesized that though an intuitively appealing idea, careful program design and faithful implementation are essential if case management programs are to succeed. We employed two theory perspectives, principal-agent framework and street-level bureaucratic theory to describe the relationship between program designers (principals) and case managers (agents/street-level bureaucrats) to review 65 case management studies. Most programs were successful in limited program-specific process and outcome goals. But there was much less success in cost-saving or cost-effectiveness-the original and overarching goal of case management. Cost results might be improved if additional ideas of agency and street-level theory were adopted, specifically, incentives, as well as "green tape," clear rules, guidelines, and algorithms relating to resource allocation among patients.

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2015-12-03

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insightsmore » from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.« less

Framework for Understanding Balance Dysfunction in Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

Schoneburg, Bernadette; Mancini, Martina; Horak, Fay; Nutt, John G.

2013-01-01

People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) suffer from progressive impairment in their mobility. Locomotor and balance dysfunction that impairs mobility in PD is an important cause of physical and psychosocial disability. The recognition and evaluation of balance dysfunction by the clinician is an essential component of managing PD. In this review, we describe a framework for understanding balance dysfunction in PD to help clinicians recognize patients that are at risk for falling and impaired mobility. PMID:23925954

Application of a QMRA Framework to Inform Selection of Drinking Water Interventions in the Developing Context.

PubMed

Petterson, S R

2016-02-01

The aim of this study was to develop a modified quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) framework that could be applied as a decision support tool to choose between alternative drinking water interventions in the developing context. The impact of different household water treatment (HWT) interventions on the overall incidence of diarrheal disease and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was estimated, without relying on source water pathogen concentration as the starting point for the analysis. A framework was developed and a software tool constructed and then implemented for an illustrative case study for Nepal based on published scientific data. Coagulation combined with free chlorine disinfection provided the greatest estimated health gains in the short term; however, when long-term compliance was incorporated into the calculations, the preferred intervention was porous ceramic filtration. The model demonstrates how the QMRA framework can be used to integrate evidence from different studies to inform management decisions, and in particular to prioritize the next best intervention with respect to estimated reduction in diarrheal incidence. This study only considered HWT interventions; it is recognized that a systematic consideration of sanitation, recreation, and drinking water pathways is important for effective management of waterborne transmission of pathogens, and the approach could be expanded to consider the broader water-related context. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Who's responsible for the care of women during and after a pregnancy affected by gestational diabetes?

PubMed

Wilkinson, Shelley A; Lim, Siew S; Upham, Susan; Pennington, Andrew; O'Reilly, Sharleen L; Asproloupos, Dino; McIntyre, H David; Dunbar, James A

2014-08-04

Despite its increasing incidence and high conferred risk to women and their children, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is managed inconsistently during and after pregnancy due to an absence of a systemic approach to managing these women. New guidelines for GDM testing and diagnosis are based on stronger evidence, but raise concerns about increased workloads and confusion in a landscape of multiple, conflicting guidelines. Postnatal care and long-term preventive measures are particularly fragmented, with no professional group taking responsibility for this crucial role. Clearer guidelines and assistance from existing frameworks, such as the National Gestational Diabetes Register, could enable general practitioners to take ownership of the management of women at risk of type 2 diabetes following GDM, applying the principles of chronic disease management long term.

Measuring Security Effectiveness and Efficiency at U.S. Commercial Airports

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

formative program evaluation and policy analysis to investigate current airport security programs. It identifies innovative public administration and...policy-analysis tools that could provide potential benefits to airport security . These tools will complement the System Based Risk Management framework if

Strengthening health disaster risk management in Africa: multi-sectoral and people-centred approaches are required in the post-Hyogo Framework of Action era.

PubMed

Olu, Olushayo; Usman, Abdulmumini; Manga, Lucien; Anyangwe, Stella; Kalambay, Kalula; Nsenga, Ngoy; Woldetsadik, Solomon; Hampton, Craig; Nguessan, Francois; Benson, Angela

2016-08-02

In November 2012, the 62nd session of the Regional Committee for Africa adopted a comprehensive 10-year regional strategy for health disaster risk management (DRM). This was intended to operationalize the World Health Organization's core commitments to health DRM and the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 in the health sectors of the 47 African member states. This study reported the formative evaluation of the strategy, including evaluation of the progress in achieving nine targets (expected to be achieved incrementally by 2014, 2017, and 2022). We proposed recommendations for accelerating the strategy's implementation within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. This study used a mixed methods design. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted along with a review of available reports and information on the implementation of the strategy. A review meeting to discuss and finalize the study findings was also conducted. In total, 58 % of the countries assessed had established DRM coordination units within their Ministry of Health (MOH). Most had dedicated MOH DRM staff (88 %) and national-level DRM committees (71 %). Only 14 (58 %) of the countries had health DRM subcommittees using a multi-sectoral disaster risk reduction platform. Less than 40 % had conducted surveys such as disaster risk analysis, hospital safety index, and mapping of health resources availability. Key challenges in implementing the strategy were inadequate political will and commitment resulting in poor funding for health DRM, weak health systems, and a dearth of scientific evidence on mainstreaming DRM and disaster risk reduction in longer-term health system development programs. Implementation of the strategy was behind anticipated targets despite some positive outcomes, such as an increase in the number of countries with health DRM incorporated in their national health legislation, MOH DRM units, and functional health sub-committees within national DRM committees. Health system-based, multi-sectoral, and people-centred approaches are proposed to accelerate implementation of the strategy in the post-Hyogo Framework of Action era.

Prototype Software Assurance Framework (SAF): Introduction and Overview

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-05

Introduction 1 1 Process Management (Category 1) 6 1.1 Process Definition (Area 1.1) 6 1.2 Infrastructure Standards (Area 1.2) 6 1.3 Resources (Area 1.3) 7...1.4 Training (Area 1.4) 8 2 Project Management (Category 2) 9 2.1 Project Plans (Area 2.1) 9 2.2 Project Infrastructure (Area 2.2) 10 2.3 Project...Monitoring (Area 2.3) 10 2.4 Project Risk Management (Area 2.4) 11 2.5 Supplier Management (Area 2.5) 11 3 Engineering (Category 3) 13 3.1 Product

A Risk Assessment Framework for Seed Degeneration: Informing an Integrated Seed Health Strategy for Vegetatively Propagated Crops.

PubMed

Thomas-Sharma, S; Andrade-Piedra, J; Carvajal Yepes, M; Hernandez Nopsa, J F; Jeger, M J; Jones, R A C; Kromann, P; Legg, J P; Yuen, J; Forbes, G A; Garrett, K A

2017-10-01

Pathogen buildup in vegetative planting material, termed seed degeneration, is a major problem in many low-income countries. When smallholder farmers use seed produced on-farm or acquired outside certified programs, it is often infected. We introduce a risk assessment framework for seed degeneration, evaluating the relative performance of individual and combined components of an integrated seed health strategy. The frequency distribution of management performance outcomes was evaluated for models incorporating biological and environmental heterogeneity, with the following results. (1) On-farm seed selection can perform as well as certified seed, if the rate of success in selecting healthy plants for seed production is high; (2) when choosing among within-season management strategies, external inoculum can determine the relative usefulness of 'incidence-altering management' (affecting the proportion of diseased plants/seeds) and 'rate-altering management' (affecting the rate of disease transmission in the field); (3) under severe disease scenarios, where it is difficult to implement management components at high levels of effectiveness, combining management components can be synergistic and keep seed degeneration below a threshold; (4) combining management components can also close the yield gap between average and worst-case scenarios. We also illustrate the potential for expert elicitation to provide parameter estimates when empirical data are unavailable. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

Operationalising resilience to drought: Multi-layered safety for flooding applied to droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rijke, Jeroen; Smith, Jennifer Vessels; Gersonius, Berry; van Herk, Sebastiaan; Pathirana, Assela; Ashley, Richard; Wong, Tony; Zevenbergen, Chris

2014-11-01

This paper sets out a way of thinking about how to prepare for and respond to droughts in a holistic way using a framework developed for managing floods. It shows how the multi-layered safety (MLS) approach for flood resilience can be utilised in the context of drought in a way that three layers of intervention can be distinguished for operationalising drought resilience: (1) protection against water shortage through augmentation and diversification of water supplies; (2) prevention of damage in case of water shortage through increased efficiency of water use and timely asset maintenance; (3) preparedness for future water shortages through mechanisms to reduce the use of water and adopt innovative water technologies. Application of MLS to the cities of Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney shows that recent water reforms in these cities were primarily focused on protection measures that aim to reduce the hazard source or exposure to insufficient water supplies. Prevention and preparedness measures could be considered in defining interventions that aim to further increase the drought resilience of these cities. Although further research is needed, the application suggests that MLS can be applied to the context of drought risk management. The MLS framework can be used to classify the suite of plans deployed by a city to manage future drought risks and can be considered a planning tool to identify opportunities for increasing the level of redundancy and hence resilience of the drought risk management system.

Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade-offs in water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J. D.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2017-08-01

Managing water resources systems requires coordinated operation of system infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of hydrologic extremes while balancing conflicting multisectoral demands. Traditionally, recommended management strategies are derived by optimizing system operations under a single problem framing that is assumed to accurately represent the system objectives, tacitly ignoring the myriad of effects that could arise from simplifications and mathematical assumptions made when formulating the problem. This study illustrates the benefits of a rival framings framework in which analysts instead interrogate multiple competing hypotheses of how complex water management problems should be formulated. Analyzing rival framings helps discover unintended consequences resulting from inherent biases of alternative problem formulations. We illustrate this on the monsoonal Red River basin in Vietnam by optimizing operations of the system's four largest reservoirs under several different multiobjective problem framings. In each rival framing, we specify different quantitative representations of the system's objectives related to hydropower production, agricultural water supply, and flood protection of the capital city of Hanoi. We find that some formulations result in counterintuitive behavior. In particular, policies designed to minimize expected flood damages inadvertently increase the risk of catastrophic flood events in favor of hydropower production, while min-max objectives commonly used in robust optimization provide poor representations of system tradeoffs due to their instability. This study highlights the importance of carefully formulating and evaluating alternative mathematical abstractions of stakeholder objectives describing the multisectoral water demands and risks associated with hydrologic extremes.

Environmental Risk Assessment of dredging processes - application to Marin harbour (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, A. G.; García Alba, J.; Puente, A.; Juanes, J. A.

2014-04-01

A methodological procedure to estimate the environmental risk of dredging operations in aquatic systems has been developed. Environmental risk estimations are based on numerical models results, which provide an appropriated spatio-temporal framework analysis to guarantee an effective decision-making process. The methodological procedure has been applied on a real dredging operation in the port of Marin (NW Spain). Results from Marin harbour confirmed the suitability of the developed methodology and the conceptual approaches as a comprehensive and practical management tool.

Improving the decision-making process for nonprescription drugs: a framework for benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Brass, E P; Lofstedt, R; Renn, O

2011-12-01

Nonprescription drugs pose unique challenges to regulators. The fact that the barriers to access are lower for nonprescription drugs as compared with prescription drugs may permit additional consumers to obtain effective drugs. However, the use of these drugs by consumers in the absence of supervision by a health-care professional may result in unacceptable rates of misuse and suboptimal clinical outcomes. A value-tree method is proposed that defines important benefit and risk domains relevant to nonprescription drugs. This value tree can be used to comprehensively identify product-specific attributes in each domain and can also support formal benefit-risk assessment using a variety of tools. This is illustrated here, using a modification of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, a flexible tool previously applied in a number of fields, which systematizes an approach to issue review, early alignment of stakeholders, evaluation, and risk mitigation/management. The proposed approach has the potential to provide structured, transparent tools for regulatory decision making for nonprescription drugs.

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies for drugs with abuse liability: public interest, special interest, conflicts of interest, and the industry perspective.

PubMed

Wright, Curtis; Schnoll, Sidney; Bernstein, David

2008-10-01

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) formerly known as Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs) are a regulatory technique for dealing with anticipated risks of new medications and are especially important for new drugs with abuse potential. This paper describes the origin and history of risk-management plans for drugs that might be abused, the proper use of these plans in minimizing the risk to the public, and the special difficulties inherent in managing risks for drugs with abuse potential. Drugs with abuse liability are distinctive since the risks inherent in manufacture and distribution include not only risks to patients prescribed the medications, but also risks to the general public including subgroups in the population not intended to get the drug and who receive no medical benefit from the medication. The crafting of risk-management plans intended to protect nonpatient populations is unique for these products. The content, extent, and level of intensity of these plans affect areas of medical ethics, civil liability, and criminal prosecution. The need for risk-management plans for drugs with abuse liability can potentially act as a deterrent to investment and is a factor in decisions concerning the development of new medications for the treatments of pain, ADHD, anxiety disorders, and addictions. This paper provides a framework for moving the process of REMS development forward and criteria for evaluating the probity and adequacy of such programs.

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

New risk indicator approach for Operators, Workers, Bystanders and Residents for a sustainable use of plant protection products.

PubMed

Sacchettini, Gabriele; Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alexandru; Glass, Richard; Ellis, Clare Butler; Machera, Kyriaki; Gerritsen-Ebben, Rianda; Spanoghe, Pieter; Capri, Ettore

2015-11-01

In 2009, the European Union adopted the Directive on Sustainable Use of pesticides (SUD, Directive 2009/128/EC) establishing a framework for achieving a sustainable use of Plant Protection Products (PPPs) through reducing the risks and impacts of PPP use on human health and the environment, promoting integrated pest management and stimulating effective non-chemical alternatives. The core idea of the SUD is that it is necessary to monitor the use of PPPs through the implementation of an appropriate set of risk indicators to monitor progress and trends in risk reduction within the Member States. To contribute to this direction, following a comprehensive analysis of the risk (including procedures of risk assessment and risk management) and involving stakeholders in the decision process, specific toolboxes of practical indirect risk indicators of exposure of Operators, Workers, Bystanders and Residents were developed and are now available to be used by Member States (MSs) based on their specific context.

Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Phil Bowden; April Brough; Joe H. Scott; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Alan Taylor; Jennifer Anderson; Jessica Haas

2016-01-01

How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident...

Web based collaborative decision making in flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evers, Mariele; Almoradie, Adrian; Jonoski, Andreja

2014-05-01

Stakeholder participation in the development of flood risk management (FRM) plans is essential since stakeholders often have a better understanding or knowledge of the potentials and limitation of their local area. Moreover, a participatory approach also creates trust amongst stakeholders, leading to a successful implementation of measures. Stakeholder participation however has its challenges and potential pitfalls that could lead to its premature termination. Such challenges and pitfalls are the limitation of financial resources, stakeholders' spatial distribution and their interest to participate. Different type of participation in FRM may encounter diverse challenges. These types of participation in FRM can be classified into (1) Information and knowledge sharing (IKS), (2) Consultative participation (CP) or (3) Collaborative decision making (CDM)- the most challenging type of participation. An innovative approach to address these challenges and potential pitfalls is a web-based mobile or computer-aided environment for stakeholder participation. This enhances the remote interaction between participating entities such as stakeholders. This paper presents a developed framework and an implementation of CDM web based environment for the Alster catchment (Hamburg, Germany) and Cranbrook catchment (London, UK). The CDM framework consists of two main stages: (1) Collaborative modelling and (2) Participatory decision making. This paper also highlights the stakeholder analyses, modelling approach and application of General Public License (GPL) technologies in developing the web-based environments. Actual test and evaluation of the environments was through series of stakeholders workshops. The overall results based from stakeholders' evaluation shows that web-based environments can address the challenges and potential pitfalls in stakeholder participation and it enhances participation in flood risk management. The web-based environment was developed within the DIANE-CM project (Decentralised Integrated Analysis and Enhancement of Awareness through Collaborative Modelling and Management of Flood Risk) of the 2nd ERANET CRUE funding initiative.

[Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].

PubMed

Abrutzky, Rosana; Dawidowski, Laura; Murgida, Ana; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

2014-09-01

Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.

Development and delivery of clinical pharmacology in regulatory agencies

PubMed Central

Breckenridge, Alasdair

2012-01-01

Medicines regulation is based on a foundation of science, policy and judgement. It operates within several frameworks (scientific, legal and public health), which are interdependent. While safety, quality and efficacy remain the criteria by which medicines are assessed, the benefit-to-harm balance for any medicine or medical device is of paramount importance. While the regulator was hitherto the gatekeeper who allowed a medicine on to the market, payers now require, in addition, assessment of cost and clinical effectiveness before use. As regulatory frameworks develop, several changes will occur, as follows: (i) formal benefit–harm assessment will become an integral part of submission for marketing authorizations; (ii) there will be greater use of surveillance for adverse reactions to new medicines using methods other than voluntary reporting; (iii) risk management plans will become benefit–risk management plans; (iv) life-saving medicines will be approved earlier; and (v) regulation and health technology assessment will take place simultaneously. Clinical pharmacologists will play important roles in these developments. PMID:22360651

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Many-Objective Robust Decision Making: Managing Water in a Deeply Uncertain World of Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources planning and management has always required the consideration of uncertainties and the associated system vulnerabilities that they may cause. Despite the long legacy of these issues, our decision support frameworks that have dominated the literature over the past 50 years have struggled with the strongly multiobjective and deeply uncertain nature of water resources systems. The term deep uncertainty (or Knightian uncertainty) refers to factors in planning that strongly shape system risks that maybe unknown and even if known there is a strong lack of consensus on their likelihoods over decadal planning horizons (population growth, financial stability, valuation of resources, ecosystem requirements, evolving water institutions, regulations, etc). In this presentation, I will propose and demonstrate the many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework for water resources management under deep uncertainty. The MORDM framework will be demonstrated using an urban water portfolio management test case. In the test case, a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley managing population and drought pressures must cost effectively maintain the reliability of its water supply by blending permanent rights to reservoir inflows with alternative strategies for purchasing water within the region's water market. The case study illustrates the significant potential pitfalls in the classic Cost-Reliability conception of the problem. Moreover, the proposed MORDM framework exploits recent advances in multiobjective search, visualization, and sensitivity analysis to better expose these pitfalls en route to identifying highly robust water planning alternatives.

Managing the unmanageable: the nature and impact of drug risk in physician groups.

PubMed

Lipton, Helene Levens; Agnew, Jonathan D; Stebbins, Marilyn R; Kuo, Angela; Dudley, R Adams

2005-08-01

As drug costs rose in the 1990s, health maintenance organizations (HMOs) began transferring risk for prescription drug expenditures to physician groups. With principal-agent theory as a framework for understanding drug-risk transfer, we used a multiple case-study design to examine the relationship between the level of drug risk that a physician group accepts and the physician group's adoption of drug-use management strategies. The data demonstrated that adoption of drug-use management innovations was not related to level of risk for pharmacy costs and that factors other than drug-risk level (e.g., contracting and data issues, financial and market factors, and physician group assessments of the fairness and incentives of risk contracts) can influence the principal-agent relationship. The data also revealed a novel form of information asymmetry between physicians and HMOs and unexpected failures of HMOs to fully enable their physician-agents. We believe these observations reflect the complexity of relationships in the health care system and have implications for the use of incentives. Based on principal-agent theory and our findings, we offer an alternative approach to drug-risk contracting that reduces physicians responsibility for aspects of drug use that are beyond their control while maintaining the incentives to manage drug costs and use that were the original intent of drug-risk contracting.

Risk Assessment to Underpin Food Regulatory Decisions: An Example of Public Health Nutritional Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Baines, Janis; Cunningham, Judy; Leemhuis, Christel; Hambridge, Tracy; Mackerras, Dorothy

2011-01-01

The approach used by food regulation agencies to examine the literature and forecast the impact of possible food regulations has many similar features to the approach used in nutritional epidemiological research. We outline the Risk Analysis Framework described by FAO/WHO, in which there is formal progression from identification of the nutrient or food chemical of interest, through to describing its effect on health and then assessing whether there is a risk to the population based on dietary exposure estimates. We then discuss some important considerations for the dietary modeling component of the Framework, including several methodological issues that also exist in research nutritional epidemiology. Finally, we give several case studies that illustrate how the different methodological components are used together to inform decisions about how to manage the regulatory problem. PMID:22254081

Applying the payoff time framework to carotid artery disease management.

PubMed

Yuo, Theodore H; Roberts, Mark S; Braithwaite, R Scott; Chang, Chung-Chou H; Kraemer, Kevin L

2013-11-01

and Asymptomatic stenosis of the carotid arteries is associated with stroke. Carotid revascularization can reduce the future risk of stroke but can also trigger an immediate stroke. The objective was to model the generic relationship between immediate risk, long-term benefit, and life expectancy for any one-time prophylactic treatment and then apply the model to the use of revascularization in the management of asymptomatic carotid disease. In the "payoff time" framework, the possibility of losing quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) because of revascularization failure is conceptualized as an "investment" that is eventually recouped over time, on average. Using this framework, we developed simple mathematical forms that define relationships between the following: perioperative probability of stroke (P); annual stroke rate without revascularization (r0); annual stroke rate after revascularization, conditional on not having suffered perioperative stroke (r1); utility levels assigned to the asymptomatic state (ua) and stroke state (us); and mortality rates (λ). In patients whose life expectancy is below a critical life expectancy (CLE = P/(1-P)r0-r1, the "investment" will never pay off, and revascularization will lead to loss of QALYs, on average. CLE is independent of utilities assigned to the health states if a rank ordering exists in which ua > us. For clinically relevant values (P = 3%, r0 = 1%, r1 = 0.5%), the CLE is approximately 6.4 years, which is longer than published guidelines regarding patient selection for revascularization. In managing asymptomatic carotid disease, the payoff time framework specifies a CLE beneath which patients, on average, will not benefit from revascularization. This formula is suitable for clinical use at the patient's bedside and can account for patient variability, the ability of clinicians who perform revascularization, and the particular revascularization technology that is chosen.

Safe drinking water in regional NSW, Australia.

PubMed

Byleveld, Paul M; Leask, Sandy D; Jarvis, Leslie A; Wall, Katrina J; Henderson, Wendy N; Tickell, Joshua E

2016-04-15

The New South Wales (NSW) Public Health Act 2010 requires water suppliers to implement a drinking water quality assurance program that addresses the 'Framework for management of drinking water quality' in the Australian drinking water guidelines. NSW Health has recognised the importance of a staged implementation of this requirement and the need to support regional water utilities. To date, NSW Health has assisted 74 regional utilities to develop and implement their management systems. The Public Health Act 2010 has increased awareness of drinking water risk management, and offers a systematic process to identify and control risks. This has benefited large utilities, smaller suppliers, and remote and Aboriginal communities. Work is continuing to ensure implementation of the process by private suppliers and water carters.

How to evaluate population management? Transforming the Care Continuum Alliance population health guide toward a broadly applicable analytical framework.

PubMed

Struijs, Jeroen N; Drewes, Hanneke W; Heijink, Richard; Baan, Caroline A

2015-04-01

Many countries face the persistent twin challenge of providing high-quality care while keeping health systems affordable and accessible. As a result, the interest for more efficient strategies to stimulate population health is increasing. A possible successful strategy is population management (PM). PM strives to address health needs for the population at-risk and the chronically ill at all points along the health continuum by integrating services across health care, prevention, social care and welfare. The Care Continuum Alliance (CCA) population health guide, which recently changed their name in Population Health Alliance (PHA) provides a useful instrument for implementing and evaluating such innovative approaches. This framework is developed for PM specifically and describes the core elements of the PM-concept on the basis of six subsequent interrelated steps. The aim of this article is to transform the CCA framework into an analytical framework. Quantitative methods are refined and we operationalized a set of indicators to measure the impact of PM in terms of the Triple Aim (population health, quality of care and cost per capita). Additionally, we added a qualitative part to gain insight into the implementation process of PM. This resulted in a broadly applicable analytical framework based on a mixed-methods approach. In the coming years, the analytical framework will be applied within the Dutch Monitor Population Management to derive transferable 'lessons learned' and to methodologically underpin the concept of PM. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework to Evaluate Wildlife Feeding in Research, Wildlife Management, Tourism and Recreation

PubMed Central

Dubois, Sara; Fraser, David

2013-01-01

Simple Summary Human feeding of wildlife is a world-wide phenomenon with very diverse effects on conservation, animal welfare and public safety. From a review of the motivations, types and consequences of wildlife feeding, an evaluative framework is presented to assist policy-makers, educators and managers to make ethical- and biologically-based decisions about the appropriateness of feeding wildlife in the context of research, wildlife management, tourism and recreation. Abstract Feeding of wildlife occurs in the context of research, wildlife management, tourism and in opportunistic ways. A review of examples shows that although feeding is often motivated by good intentions, it can lead to problems of public safety and conservation and be detrimental to the welfare of the animals. Examples from British Columbia illustrate the problems (nuisance animal activity, public safety risk) and consequences (culling, translocation) that often arise from uncontrolled feeding. Three features of wildlife feeding can be distinguished: the feasibility of control, the effects on conservation and the effects on animal welfare. An evaluative framework incorporating these three features was applied to examples of feeding from the literature. The cases of feeding for research and management purposes were generally found to be acceptable, while cases of feeding for tourism or opportunistic feeding were generally unacceptable. The framework should allow managers and policy-makers to distinguish acceptable from unacceptable forms of wildlife feeding as a basis for policy, public education and enforcement. Many harmful forms of wildlife feeding seem unlikely to change until they come to be seen as socially unacceptable. PMID:26479747

Evidence-Based Guidelines for Fatigue Risk Management in EMS: Formulating Research Questions and Selecting Outcomes.

PubMed

Patterson, P Daniel; Higgins, J Stephen; Lang, Eddy S; Runyon, Michael S; Barger, Laura K; Studnek, Jonathan R; Moore, Charity G; Robinson, Kathy; Gainor, Dia; Infinger, Allison; Weiss, Patricia M; Sequeira, Denisse J; Martin-Gill, Christian

2017-01-01

Greater than half of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel report work-related fatigue, yet there are no guidelines for the management of fatigue in EMS. A novel process has been established for evidence-based guideline (EBG) development germane to clinical EMS questions. This process has not yet been applied to operational EMS questions like fatigue risk management. The objective of this study was to develop content valid research questions in the Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome (PICO) framework, and select outcomes to guide systematic reviews and development of EBGs for EMS fatigue risk management. We adopted the National Prehospital EBG Model Process and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework for developing, implementing, and evaluating EBGs in the prehospital care setting. In accordance with steps one and two of the Model Process, we searched for existing EBGs, developed a multi-disciplinary expert panel and received external input. Panelists completed an iterative process to formulate research questions. We used the Content Validity Index (CVI) to score relevance and clarity of candidate PICO questions. The panel completed multiple rounds of question editing and used a CVI benchmark of ≥0.78 to indicate acceptable levels of clarity and relevance. Outcomes for each PICO question were rated from 1 = less important to 9 = critical. Panelists formulated 13 candidate PICO questions, of which 6 were eliminated or merged with other questions. Panelists reached consensus on seven PICO questions (n = 1 diagnosis and n = 6 intervention). Final CVI scores of relevance ranged from 0.81 to 1.00. Final CVI scores of clarity ranged from 0.88 to 1.00. The mean number of outcomes rated as critical, important, and less important by PICO question was 0.7 (SD 0.7), 5.4 (SD 1.4), and 3.6 (SD 1.9), respectively. Patient and personnel safety were rated as critical for most PICO questions. PICO questions and outcomes were registered with PROSPERO, an international database of prospectively registered systematic reviews. We describe formulating and refining research questions and selection of outcomes to guide systematic reviews germane to EMS fatigue risk management. We outline a protocol for applying the Model Process and GRADE framework to create evidence-based guidelines.

BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; Ruckert, Kelsey; Applegate, Patrick; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Keller, Klaus

2017-07-01

Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components), and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge) v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential oil spill risk from shipping and the implications for management in the Caribbean Sea.

PubMed

Singh, Asha; Asmath, Hamish; Chee, Candice Leung; Darsan, Junior

2015-04-15

The semi enclosed Caribbean Sea is ranked as having one of the most intense maritime traffic in the world. These maritime activities have led to significant oil pollution. Simultaneously, this sea supports many critical habitats functioning as a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). While the impacts of oil pollution are recognised, a number of management challenges remain. This study applies spatial modelling to identify critical areas potentially at risk from oil spills in the form of a potential oil spill risk (POSR) model. The model indicates that approximately 83% of the sea could be potentially impacted by oil spills due to shipping. The results from this study collectively support a management framework for minimising ship generated oil pollution in the Caribbean Sea. Among the recommended components are a common policy, surveillance and monitoring controls, standards, monitoring programmes, data collection and greater rates of convention ratifications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

2009-01-01

This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

Psychosocial risks: is risk management strategic enough in business and policy making?

PubMed

Langenhan, Melissa K; Leka, Stavroula; Jain, Aditya

2013-06-01

In times of continuous change and volatile markets, organizations are increasingly characterized by downsizing, work intensification, and resource rationalization. This has resulted in diversification, and the emergence of new risks within the field of occupational health and safety, with an important impact. This paper focuses on one such type of risk in the modern workplace-psychosocial risks. The current study aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives, regarding the extent to which psychosocial risks are incorporated into strategic risk management practices, at both the business and policy level. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 professionals, representing employer, expert, policy maker, and trade union stakeholder perspectives. It was found that the majority of organizations do not sufficiently, if at all, understand and incorporate psychosocial risks into strategic decision making, whereby the key barrier related to practical difficulties of not knowing how to manage psychosocial risks adequately. The study found that there is a need to close the gap between policy and practice on a number of levels. Future recommendations comprise a policy framework and infrastructure underpinned by educational initiatives, partnerships, and networks to drive a shift in attitudes toward recognizing the duality of the concept of risk (including both potential negative and positive outcomes) and moving beyond simple regulatory compliance.

Psychosocial Risks: Is Risk Management Strategic Enough in Business and Policy Making?

PubMed Central

Langenhan, Melissa K.; Leka, Stavroula; Jain, Aditya

2013-01-01

Background In times of continuous change and volatile markets, organizations are increasingly characterized by downsizing, work intensification, and resource rationalization. This has resulted in diversification, and the emergence of new risks within the field of occupational health and safety, with an important impact. This paper focuses on one such type of risk in the modern workplace—psychosocial risks. The current study aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives, regarding the extent to which psychosocial risks are incorporated into strategic risk management practices, at both the business and policy level. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 professionals, representing employer, expert, policy maker, and trade union stakeholder perspectives. Results It was found that the majority of organizations do not sufficiently, if at all, understand and incorporate psychosocial risks into strategic decision making, whereby the key barrier related to practical difficulties of not knowing how to manage psychosocial risks adequately. Conclusion The study found that there is a need to close the gap between policy and practice on a number of levels. Future recommendations comprise a policy framework and infrastructure underpinned by educational initiatives, partnerships, and networks to drive a shift in attitudes toward recognizing the duality of the concept of risk (including both potential negative and positive outcomes) and moving beyond simple regulatory compliance. PMID:23961331

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

2016-01-01

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

A good chew or good riddance--how to move forward in the regulation of khat consumption.

PubMed

Klein, Axel; Metaal, Pien

2010-12-01

To review the status of khat, the most recent plant based psychoactive substance to reach a global market, and consider policy making processes in general and the framework of drug control in particular. Desk review of literature on khat and wider drug policy processes. The risk assessment and classification of psychoactive drugs is a contested arena where political, economic and moral agendas collide, leaving countries that have banned khat, with significant social costs. To best manage the risks arising from the increasing availability of khat it is therefore suggested to draft a regulatory framework with clear objectives and guiding principles. Given that medical risks of khat use are modest, the objective of the regulatory framework should be the protection of consumers and community. This is best achieved by establishing processes for the quality control of khat imports, and by regulating access and availability. It should therefore not be considered as a drug to be controlled but as a licit substance that needs to be regulated. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

78 FR 34112 - Review and Revision of the National Infrastructure Protection Plan

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-06

... consider sector dependencies on energy and communications systems, and identify pre-event and mitigation... development efforts; Review of the risk management approach; Sector dependencies on energy and communications... framework going forward. Sector Dependencies on Energy and Communications Systems PPD-21 acknowledges the...

Evaluating nonindigenous species management in a Bayesian networks derived relative risk framework for Padilla Bay, WA, USA.

PubMed

Herring, Carlie E; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2015-10-01

Many coastal regions are encountering issues with the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS). In this study, we conducted a regional risk assessment using a Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) to analyze multiple vectors of NIS introductions to Padilla Bay, Washington, a National Estuarine Research Reserve. We had 3 objectives in this study. The 1st objective was to determine whether the BN-RRM could be used to calculate risk from NIS introductions for Padilla Bay. Our 2nd objective was to determine which regions and endpoints were at greatest risk from NIS introductions. Our 3rd objective was to incorporate a management option into the model and predict endpoint risk if it were to be implemented. Eradication can occur at different stages of NIS invasions, such as the elimination of these species before being introduced to the habitat or removal of the species after settlement. We incorporated the ballast water treatment management scenario into the model, observed the risk to the endpoints, and compared this risk with the initial risk estimates. The model results indicated that the southern portion of the bay was at greatest risk because of NIS. Changes in community composition, Dungeness crab, and eelgrass were the endpoints most at risk from NIS introductions. The currents node, which controls the exposure of NIS to the bay from the surrounding marine environment, was the parameter that had the greatest influence on risk. The ballast water management scenario displayed an approximate 1% reduction in risk in this Padilla Bay case study. The models we developed provide an adaptable template for decision makers interested in managing NIS in other coastal regions and large bodies of water. © 2015 SETAC.

Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

2005-08-01

When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change.

PubMed

Sax, Dov F; Early, Regan; Bellemare, Jesse

2013-09-01

The current distributions of species are often assumed to correspond with the total set of environmental conditions under which species can persist. When this assumption is incorrect, extinction risk estimated from species distribution models can be misleading. The degree to which species can tolerate or even thrive under conditions found beyond their current distributions alters extinction risks, time lags in realizing those risks, and the usefulness of alternative management strategies. To inform these issues, we propose a conceptual framework within which empirical data could be used to generate hypotheses regarding the realized, fundamental, and 'tolerance' niche of species. Although these niche components have rarely been characterized over geographic scales, we suggest that this could be done for many plant species by comparing native, naturalized, and horticultural distributions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic and psychosocial risks of heat illness incidents on construction site.

PubMed

Jia, Yunyan Andrea; Rowlinson, Steve; Ciccarelli, Marina

2016-03-01

The study presented in this paper aims to identify prominent risks leading to heat illness in summer among construction workers that can be prioritised for developing effective interventions. Samples are 216 construction workers' cases at the individual level and 26 construction projects cases at the organisation level. A grounded theory is generated to define the climatic heat and psychosocial risks and the relationships between risks, timing and effectiveness of interventions. The theoretical framework is then used to guide content analysis of 36 individual onsite heat illness cases to identify prominent risks. The results suggest that heat stress risks on construction site are socially constructed and can be effectively managed through elimination at supply chain level, effective engineering control, proactive control of the risks through individual interventions and reactive control through mindful recognition and response to early symptoms. The role of management infrastructure as a base for effective interventions is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The role of Indigenous knowledge in environmental health risk management in Yukon, Canada

PubMed Central

Friendship, Katelyn A.; Furgal, Chris M.

2012-01-01

Objectives This project aimed to gain better understandings of northern Indigenous risk perception related to food safety and to identify the role that Indigenous knowledge (IK) plays in risk management processes to support more effective and culturally relevant benefit-risk (B-R) management strategies. Study design The project used an exploratory qualitative case study design to investigate the role and place of IK in the management of environmental contaminants exposure via consumption of traditional foods in Yukon First Nations (YFNs). Methods Forty-one semi-directive interviews with Traditional Food Knowledge Holders and Health and Environment Decision-makers were conducted. A review and analysis of organizational documents related to past risk management events for the issue was conducted. Thematic content analysis was used to analyze transcripts and documents for key themes related to the research question. Results There was a recognized need by all participants for better collaboration between scientists and YFN communities. YFNs have been involved in identifying and defining community concerns about past risk issues, setting a local context, and participating in communications strategies. Interviewees stressed the need to commit adequate time for building relationships, physically being in the community, and facilitating open communication. Conducting community-based projects was identified as critical for collaboration and for cooperative learning and management of these issues. Conclusions The perception of “effective” benefit-risk management is significantly influenced by the efforts made to include local communities in the process. A set of common guiding principles within a process that brings together people and knowledge systems may provide a more effective way forward in cross-cultural, multiple knowledge system contexts for complex benefit-risk issues than a prescriptive rigid framework. PMID:22868192

The legal framework to manage chemical pollution in India and the lesson from the Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs).

PubMed

Sharma, Brij Mohan; Bharat, Girija K; Tayal, Shresth; Nizzetto, Luca; Larssen, Thorjørn

2014-08-15

India's rapid agro-economic growth has resulted into many environmental issues, especially related to chemical pollution. Environmental management and control of toxic chemicals have gained significant attention from policy makers, researchers, and enterprises in India. The present study reviews the policy and legal and non-regulatory schemes set in place in this country during the last decades to manage chemical risk and compares them with those in developed nations. India has a large and fragmented body of regulation to control and manage chemical pollution which appears to be ineffective in protecting environment and human health. The example of POPs contamination in India is proposed to support such a theory. Overlapping of jurisdictions and retrospectively approached environmental policy and risk management currently adopted in India are out of date and excluding Indian economy from the process of building and participating into new, environmentally-sustainable market spaces for chemical products. To address these issues, the introduction of a new integrated and scientifically-informed regulation and management scheme is recommended. Such scheme should acknowledge the principle of risk management rather than the current one based on risk acceptance. To this end, India should take advantage of the experience of recently introduced chemical management regulation in some developed nations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

Reducing Risk in CO2 Sequestration: A Framework for Integrated Monitoring of Basin Scale Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, C. J.; Haidari, A. S.; McRae, G. J.

2009-12-01

Geological sequestration of CO2 is an option for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Technical ability to safely store CO2 in the subsurface has been demonstrated through pilot projects and a long history of enhanced oil recovery and acid gas disposal operations. To address climate change, current injection operations must be scaled up by a factor of 100, raising issues of safety and security. Monitoring and verification is an essential component in ensuring safe operations and managing risk. Monitoring provides assurance that CO2 is securely stored in the subsurface, and the mechanisms governing transport and storage are well understood. It also provides an early warning mechanism for identification of anomalies in performance, and a means for intervention and remediation through the ability to locate the CO2. Through theoretical studies, bench scale experiments and pilot tests, a number of technologies have demonstrated their ability to monitor CO2 in the surface and subsurface. Because the focus of these studies has been to demonstrate feasibility, individual techniques have not been integrated to provide a more robust method for monitoring. Considering the large volumes required for injection, size of the potential footprint, length of time a project must be monitored and uncertainty, operational considerations of cost and risk must balance safety and security. Integration of multiple monitoring techniques will reduce uncertainty in monitoring injected CO2, thereby reducing risk. We present a framework for risk management of large scale injection through model based monitoring network design. This framework is applied to monitoring CO2 in a synthetic reservoir where there is uncertainty in the underlying permeability field controlling fluid migration. Deformation and seismic data are used to track plume migration. A modified Ensemble Kalman filter approach is used to estimate flow properties by jointly assimilating flow and geomechanical observations. Issues of risk, cost and uncertainty are considered.

Risk analysis and its link with standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health.

PubMed

Sugiura, K; Murray, N

2011-04-01

Among the agreements included in the treaty that created the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January 1995 is the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) that sets out the basic rules for food safety and animal and plant health standards. The SPS Agreement designates the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) as the organisation responsible for developing international standards for animal health and zoonoses. The SPS Agreement requires that the sanitary measures that WTO members apply should be based on science and encourages them to either apply measures based on the OIE standards or, if they choose to adopt a higher level of protection than that provided by these standards, apply measures based on a science-based risk assessment. The OIE also provides a procedural framework for risk analysis for its Member Countries to use. Despite the inevitable challenges that arise in carrying out a risk analysis of the international trade in animals and animal products, the OIE risk analysis framework provides a structured approach that facilitates the identification, assessment, management and communication of these risks.

How can investment in the landscape or the interface reduce the risk of house loss from wildfires? A comparative study between Sydney, Australia and California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, Trent; Bradstock, Ross; Collins, Luke; Fotheringham, Cj; Keeley, Jon; Labiosa, Bill; Price, Owen; Syphard, Alex

2013-04-01

Wildfire can result in significant losses to people and property. Management agencies undertake a range of actions in the landscape and at the interface to reduce this risk. Data relating to the success of individual treatments varies, with some approaches well understood and others less so. Research has rarely attempted to consider the interactive effects of treatments in order to determine optimal management strategies that reduce the risk of loss. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical framework for undertaking such an analysis. Here we apply Bayesian Networks to examine the trade-offs in investment in preventative actions (e.g., fuel treatment, community education, development controls) and suppressive actions (e.g., initial attack, landscape suppression, property protection) in two fire prone regions -Sydney, Australia and California, USA. Investment in management actions at the interface resulted in the greatest reduction in the risk of house loss for both of the study regions. Landscape treatments had a limited ability to change the risk of house loss.

Engineered nanomaterials: exposures, hazards, and risk prevention

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Nanotechnology presents the possibility of revolutionizing many aspects of our lives. People in many settings (academic, small and large industrial, and the general public in industrialized nations) are either developing or using engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) or ENM-containing products. However, our understanding of the occupational, health and safety aspects of ENMs is still in its formative stage. A survey of the literature indicates the available information is incomplete, many of the early findings have not been independently verified, and some may have been over-interpreted. This review describes ENMs briefly, their application, the ENM workforce, the major routes of human exposure, some examples of uptake and adverse effects, what little has been reported on occupational exposure assessment, and approaches to minimize exposure and health hazards. These latter approaches include engineering controls such as fume hoods and personal protective equipment. Results showing the effectiveness - or lack thereof - of some of these controls are also included. This review is presented in the context of the Risk Assessment/Risk Management framework, as a paradigm to systematically work through issues regarding human health hazards of ENMs. Examples are discussed of current knowledge of nanoscale materials for each component of the Risk Assessment/Risk Management framework. Given the notable lack of information, current recommendations to minimize exposure and hazards are largely based on common sense, knowledge by analogy to ultrafine material toxicity, and general health and safety recommendations. This review may serve as an overview for health and safety personnel, management, and ENM workers to establish and maintain a safe work environment. Small start-up companies and research institutions with limited personnel or expertise in nanotechnology health and safety issues may find this review particularly useful. PMID:21418643

A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale.

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2016-03-01

Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk and resilience in the shale gas context: a nexus perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosales, T. Y.; Notte, C. A.; Allen, D. M.; Kirste, D. M.

2014-12-01

The accelerated exploration for and development of unconventional gas plays around the world has raised public concern about potential risks to human health and the environment. In this study, a risk assessment framework specific to shale gas development is proposed. The framework aims to quantify and/or qualify both risk and resilience within a water-energy nexus context, using a comprehensive approach that considers environment, health and policy. The risk assessment framework is intended to be flexible so that it can be used in different regions, but will be tested in North East British Columbia, Canada where shale gas development is rapidly expanding. The main components of risk include hazards, susceptibility and potential consequences, which will be evaluated in space and time using ArcGIS software. The hazards are associated with all phases of shale gas development and include: water, air, and soil contamination; water use (surface and groundwater), and land use disturbance, and their assessment will take into account where they may occur, their frequency, duration and magnitude. Hazard-specific susceptibility maps will be generated based on the physical characteristics of the environment (e.g. soil, geology, hydrology, topography) as well as water source information (e.g. well locations), community footprints, etc. When combined with an evaluation of potential consequences, the resulting set of spatial risk maps can then be used for water resource management, land use planning, and industry permitting. Resilience, which buffers risk, here considers the existing regulatory framework and whether or not existing regulations can mitigate risk by reducing the hazard potential or consequences. The study considers how regulations may fully, partially, or inadequately mitigate the consequences of a given hazard. If development is to continue at its current pace in North East BC, it is imperative that decision-makers recognize the changing risk and resilience profiles and respond with appropriate policy. A critical component of the study comprises a gap analysis of current regulation and a possible path forward.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Salice, Chris J; Birnir, Bjorn; Bruins, Randy J F; Calow, Peter; Ducrot, Virginie; Galic, Nika; Garber, Kristina; Harvey, Bret C; Jager, Henriette; Kanarek, Andrew; Pastorok, Robert; Railsback, Steve F; Rebarber, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille

2017-04-01

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:845-859. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchbinder, Ben

1993-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. The framework introduced here represents an ongoing initiative supported by the National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS; http://www.nimbi

A systematic review of socio-economic assessments in support of coastal zone management (1992-2011).

PubMed

Le Gentil, Eric; Mongruel, Rémi

2015-02-01

Cooperation between the social and natural sciences has become essential in order to encompass all the dimensions of coastal zone management. Socio-economic approaches are increasingly recommended to complement integrated assessment in support of these initiatives. A systematic review of the academic literature was carried out in order to analyze the main types of socio-economic assessments used to inform the coastal zone management process as well as their effectiveness. A corpus of 1682 articles published between 1992 and 2011 was identified by means of the representative coverage approach, from which 170 were selected by applying inclusion/exclusion criteria and then classified using a content analysis methodology. The percentage of articles that mention the use of socio-economic assessment in support of coastal zone management initiatives is increasing but remains relatively low. The review examines the links between the issues addressed by integrated assessments and the chosen analytical frameworks as well as the various economic assessment methods which are used in the successive steps of the coastal zone management process. The results show that i) analytical frameworks such as 'risk and vulnerability', 'DPSIR', 'valuation', 'ecosystem services' and 'preferences' are likely to lead to effective integration of social sciences in coastal zone management research while 'integration', 'sustainability' and 'participation' remain difficult to operationalize, ii) risk assessments are insufficiently implemented in developing countries, and iii) indicator systems in support of multi-criteria analyses could be used during more stages of the coastal zone management process. Finally, it is suggested that improved collaboration between science and management would require that scientists currently involved in coastal zone management processes further educate themselves in integrated assessment approaches and participatory methodologies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A game theory based framework for assessing incentives for local area collaboration with an application to Scottish salmon farming.

PubMed

Murray, Alexander G

2014-08-01

Movements of water that transport pathogens mean that in net-pen aquaculture diseases are often most effectively managed collaboratively among neighbours. Such area management is widely and explicitly applied for pathogen management in marine salmon farms. Effective area management requires the active support of farm managers and a simple game-theory based framework was developed to identify the conditions required under which collaboration is perceived to be in their own best interest. The model applied is based on area management as practiced for Scottish salmon farms, but its simplicity allows it to be generalised to other area-managed net-pen aquaculture systems. In this model managers choose between purchasing tested pathogen-free fish or cheaper, untested fish that might carry pathogens. Perceived pay-off depends on degree of confidence that neighbours will not buy untested fish, risking input of pathogens that spread between farms. For a given level of risk, confidence in neighbours is most important in control of moderate-impact moderate-probability diseases. Common low-impact diseases require high confidence since there is a high probability a neighbour will import, while testing for rare high-impact diseases may be cost-effective regardless of neighbours actions. In some cases testing may be beneficial at an area level, even if all individual farms are better off not testing. Higher confidence is required for areas with many farms and so focusing management on smaller, epidemiologically imperfect, areas may be more effective. The confidence required for collaboration can be enhanced by the development of formal agreements and the involvement of outside disinterested parties such as trade bodies or government. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Regulating the risk of tuberculosis transmission among health care workers.

PubMed

Nicas, M

2000-01-01

The 1994 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on preventing tuberculosis (TB) transmission among health care workers (HCWs), and the 1997 Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) proposed TB standard, do not address the issue of acceptable risk. Further, many infection control personnel oppose OSHA's promulgating a standard because they believe most TB infections among HCWs are nonoccupational in origin. This article examines the relationship between TB infection and disease rates, and introduces a probability framework to apportion infection risk between occupational and nonoccupational exposure. It is argued that most TB infections among HCWs are work-related. A 0.2% overall annual risk of TB infection (accounting for both workplace and community exposure) is proposed as acceptable, because in the context of an infection surveillance program it limits an HCW's cumulative disease risk close to the value for the general United States population. Based on the probability framework, an estimate of the background community infection rate, and the traditional Wells-Riley risk model, it is shown that a target workplace infection risk value can be derived and expressed in terms of an expected pulmonary dose. The latter target dose informs risk management decision-making.

Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, María; Mañez, María

2016-04-01

Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we have to recognise that there is no "one-size-fit-all" solution and that Multi-Sector Partnerships are shape by the hazard they face and also by the social, political and historical background of the area where they are.

Perceived determinants of cardiovascular risk management in primary care: disconnections between patient behaviours, practice organisation and healthcare system.

PubMed

Huntink, E; Wensing, M; Klomp, M A; van Lieshout, J

2015-12-15

Although conditions for high quality cardiovascular risk management in primary care in the Netherlands are favourable, there still remains a gap between practice guideline recommendations and practice. The aim of the current study was to identify determinants of cardiovascular primary care in the Netherlands. We performed a qualitative study, using semi-structured interviews with healthcare professionals and patients with established cardiovascular diseases or at high cardiovascular risk. A framework analysis was used to cluster the determinants into seven domains: 1) guideline factors, 2) individual healthcare professional factors, 3) patient factors, 4) professional interaction, 5) incentives and recourses, 6) mandate, authority and accountability, and 7) social, political and legal factors. Twelve healthcare professionals and 16 patients were interviewed. Healthcare professionals and patients mentioned a variety of factors concerning all seven domains. Determinants of practice according to the health care professionals were related to communication between healthcare professionals, patients' lack of knowledge and self-management, time management, market mechanisms in the Dutch healthcare system and motivational interviewing skills of healthcare professionals. Patients mentioned determinants related to their knowledge of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, medication adherence and self-management as key determinants. A key finding is the mismatch between healthcare professionals' and patients' views on patient's knowledge and self-management. Perceived determinants of cardiovascular risk management were mainly related to patient behaviors and (but only for health professionals) to the healthcare system. Though health care professionals and patients agree upon the importance of patients' knowledge and self-management, their judgment of the current state of knowledge and self-management is entirely different.

Effects of human water management on California drought risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaogang; Wada, Yoshihide; Wanders, Niko; Sheffield, Justin

2017-04-01

Contribution of human water management to the intensification or mitigation of hydrological drought over California is investigated using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model at 0.5˚ resolution for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that including water management in the modeling framework results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ˜50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of the human impact on drought. A detailed study of the relative attribution of different types of human activities (e.g., groundwater pumping, reservoir operation and irrigation) on changes in drought risk over California is conducted through a higher 10 km resolution simulation. This hydrological modeling, attribution and risk assessment framework is further extended to other drought-prone areas and major drought events in the contiguous U.S., including the 2006/2007 southeastern U.S. drought, the 2011 Texas-northern Mexico drought over the southern plains and the 2012 drought over the central Great Plains.

Response to the National Career Development Strategy Green Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Australian Journal of Career Development, 2012

2012-01-01

The National Career Development Strategy Green Paper paper proposes a strategy that is committed to these principles: (1) quality through Career Industry Council of Australia (CICA) benchmarking, quality frameworks and processes and as a risk management strategy; (2) lifetime access to career development services; (3) development of career…

PEER Transportation Research Program | PEER Transportation Research Program

Science.gov Websites

methodologies, integrating fundamental knowledge, enabling technologies, and systems. We further expect that the Bayesian Framework for Performance Assessment and Risk Management of Transportation Systems subject to Earthquakes Directivity Modeling for NGA West2 Ground Motion Studies for Transportation Systems Performance

Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

EPA Science Inventory

Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

Integrating watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals...

Brent Olson - Director, Office of Internal Audit | NREL

Science.gov Websites

improve the effectiveness and efficiency of governance, risk management, and control processes. Using this the Treadway Commission's 2013 Internal Control Framework, Standards for Internal Control in the additional certifications from IIA including Certified Internal Auditor (CIA); Certification in Control Self

Cash on Demand: A Framework for Managing a Cash Liquidity Position.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Augustine, John H.

1995-01-01

A well-run college or university will seek to accumulate and maintain an appropriate cash reserve or liquidity position. A rigorous analytic process for estimating the size and cost of a liquidity position, based on judgments about the institution's operating risks and opportunities, is outlined. (MSE)

32 CFR 185.4 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... by or against DoD Forces). (3) Risk (safety of DoD Forces). (4) Cost (including the source of funding... perform its primary mission). (f) DSCA plans shall be compatible with the National Response Framework; the National Incident Management System; all contingency plans for operations in the locations listed in § 185...

32 CFR 185.4 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... by or against DoD Forces). (3) Risk (safety of DoD Forces). (4) Cost (including the source of funding... perform its primary mission). (f) DSCA plans shall be compatible with the National Response Framework; the National Incident Management System; all contingency plans for operations in the locations listed in § 185...

32 CFR 185.4 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... by or against DoD Forces). (3) Risk (safety of DoD Forces). (4) Cost (including the source of funding... perform its primary mission). (f) DSCA plans shall be compatible with the National Response Framework; the National Incident Management System; all contingency plans for operations in the locations listed in § 185...

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Risks and Protective Factors for Stress Self-Management in Parents of Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder: An Integrated Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Bonis, Susan A; Sawin, Kathleen J

Stress in parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been reported to be very high. However, little is known about what risk and protective factors influence parental stress self-management in this population. Accordingly, this manuscript is a synthesis of the risk and protective factors that impact self-management of stress in these parents. The concepts in the individual and family self-management theory context domain were used as a framework to guide data collection and analysis. Searches were conducted using CINAHL, MedLine and PsychInfo. Studies were included if they addressed context factors in parents of children with ASD and were written in English. Ninety-eight studies met review criteria. This review highlighted risk factors to parental stress self-management within the context of condition-specific factors, physical and social environment, and individual and family. The most concerning of these findings is that parents struggle accessing a diagnosis and services for their child and are frustrated with health care providers' knowledge of ASD and lack of communication. The risks parents experience as they care for their child with ASD far outweigh the protective factors for self-management of parental stress. Nurses who are aware of these issues can make important changes to their practice and have a significant impact on parental stress self-management and the care of children with ASD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demand management: enabling patients to use medical care appropriately.

PubMed

Vickery, D M; Lynch, W D

1995-05-01

A rationale is presented for considering demand management as well as supply management (managed care) in the current debate on health care reform. Demand management is the support of individuals so that they may make rational health and medical decisions based on a consideration of benefits and risks. The concept of demand for medical services is examined within a theoretical framework of four components: morbidity, perceived need, patient preference, and nonhealth motives. Two components, perceived need and patient preference, are suggested to offer considerable potential for making utilization more appropriate and reducing costs. Current demand services and potential hazards related to their continued expansion are discussed.

Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework.

PubMed

Pescaroli, Gianluca; Alexander, David

2018-06-15

In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner. Overlapping uses and definitions could generate confusion and lead to the duplication of research effort. This article gives an overview of the state of the art regarding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks. It is intended to help build a coherent basis for the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The main objective is to propose a holistic framework that highlights the complementarities of the four kinds of complex risk in a manner that is designed to support the work of researchers and policymakers. This article suggests how compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks could be used, with little or no redundancy, as inputs to new analyses and decisional tools designed to support the implementation of the SFDRR. The findings can be used to improve policy recommendations and support tools for emergency and crisis management, such as scenario building and impact trees, thus contributing to the achievement of a system-wide approach to resilience. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

Adolescent Females and Their Mothers

PubMed Central

Volkman, Julie E.; Silk, Kami J.

2010-01-01

Recent research indicates environmental factors and personal behaviors are related to breast cancer risk, but adopting a healthy lifestyle as early as adolescence can serve a protective function. To investigate perceptions of breast cancer risk and the environment, 10 focus groups (N = 91) were conducted with adolescent females (n = 55) and mothers (n = 36) across four counties in the Midwest, USA. The Uncertainty Management Theory provides a framework for discussing statements, and results suggest that uncertainty is maintained through ambiguity about environmental risk factors and breast cancer. Recommendations for prevention messages are presented. PMID:18987091

Drinking-water quality management: the Australian framework.

PubMed

Sinclair, Martha; Rizak, Samantha

The most effective means of assuring drinking-water quality and the protection of public health is through adoption of a preventive management approach that encompasses all steps in water production from catchment to consumer. However, the reliance of current regulatory structures on compliance monitoring of treated water tends to promote a reactive management style where corrective actions are initiated after monitoring reveals that prescribed levels have been exceeded, and generally after consumers have received the noncomplying water. Unfortunately, the important limitations of treated water monitoring are often not appreciated, and there is a widespread tendency to assume that intensification of compliance monitoring or lowering of compliance limits is an effective strategy to improving the protection of public health. To address these issues and emphasize the role of preventive system management, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council in collaboration with the Co-operative Research Centre for Water Quality and Treatment has developed a comprehensive quality management approach for drinking water. This Framework for Management of Drinking Water Quality will assist water suppliers in providing a higher level of assurance for drinking water quality and safety. The framework integrates quality and risk management principles, and provides a comprehensive, flexible, and proactive means of optimizing, drinking-water quality and protecting public health. It does not eliminate the requirement for compliance monitoring but allows it to be viewed in the proper perspective as providing verification that preventive measures are effective, rather than as the primary means of protecting public health.

A review of legal framework applicable for the management of healthcare waste and current management practices in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Haylamicheal, Israel Deneke; Desalegne, Solomon Akalu

2012-06-01

The management of healthcare waste (HCW) requires special attention due to the risk posed by the presence of hazardous waste. The first step towards this is the issuance of national legislation complemented by policy documents, regulations and technical guidelines. In Ethiopia there is no specific legislation for healthcare waste management (HCWM). However, there are various legislations which may provide a legal framework for the management of HCW. This review assesses the various legislations that are relevant to HCWM. It also looks into the institutional arrangements put in place and waste management practices that prevail in the country. It was found that, although the existing legislations have provisions that may provide a legal framework for the management of HCW in Ethiopia, they are not comprehensive and lack specificity in terms of defining hazardous HCW and its categories; in indicating legal obligations of healthcare facilities (HCFs) in handling, transporting, treating and disposing HCW, and record keeping and reporting. There is overlapping of mandates and lackof co-ordination among various government institutions that are responsible for HCWM. The HCWM practices also do not conform to the principles of waste management in general and HCWM in particular. Thus, to better manage HCW in Ethiopia, a specific and comprehensive legislation and policy document on HCWM with clear designation of responsibilities to various stakeholders should be issued immediately. Moreover, training and awareness raising activities on proper HCWM should be undertaken targeting medical staffs, HCF administrators, waste handlers, policy and decision makers and the general public.

Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

PubMed

Füssel, Hans-Martin

2008-02-01

Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

Lessons from game theory about healthcare system price inflation: evidence from a community-level case study.

PubMed

Agee, Mark D; Gates, Zane

2013-02-01

Game theory is useful for identifying conditions under which individual stakeholders in a collective action problem interact in ways that are more cooperative and in the best interest of the collective. The literature applying game theory to healthcare markets predicts that when providers set prices for services autonomously and in a noncooperative fashion, the market will be susceptible to ongoing price inflation. We compare the traditional fee-for-service pricing framework with an alternative framework involving modified doctor, hospital and insurer pricing and incentive strategies. While the fee-for-service framework generally allows providers to set prices autonomously, the alternative framework constrains providers to interact more cooperatively. We use community-level provider and insurer data to compare provider and insurer costs and patient wellness under the traditional and modified pricing frameworks. The alternative pricing framework assumes (i) providers agree to manage all outpatient claims; (ii) the insurer agrees to manage all inpatient clams; and (iii) insurance premiums are tied to patients' healthy behaviours. Consistent with game theory predictions, the more cooperative alternative pricing framework benefits all parties by producing substantially lower administrative costs along with higher profit margins for the providers and the insurer. With insurance premiums tied to consumers' risk-reducing behaviours, the cost of insurance likewise decreases for both the consumer and the insurer.

A gender-centered ecological framework targeting Black men living with diabetes: integrating a "masculinity" perspective in diabetes management and education research.

PubMed

Jack, Leonard; Toston, Tyra; Jack, Nkenge H; Sims, Mario

2010-03-01

Blacks have traditionally experienced a disproportionate burden of diabetes in the United States. Research published from 1980 to 2008 revealed a paucity of diabetes education and management research targeting Black men. There is a paucity of published research that takes into consideration attributes of "being male," such as masculinity, and how its attributes influence diabetes self-management behaviors. This article discusses three important factors that may help explain diabetes-related disparities among Black men.These factors include absence of consistent sources of health care, lack of health insurance, and the absence of a masculinity perspective in diabetes education and management research. This article offers a gender-centered ecological framework that examines pathways between demographic factors, family functioning, knowledge and psychological health, biological health, behavioral health and medical compliance, masculinity, and diabetes-related outcomes. Recommendations for future research that consider how aspects of masculinity might lead to the identification of gender-based risk factors are presented.

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poff, N. Leroy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres

2016-01-01

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.