17 CFR 23.600 - Risk Management Program for swap dealers and major swap participants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... at the consolidated entity level. (iii) The Risk Management Program shall include policies and...; and whether the product requires a novel pricing methodology or presents novel legal and regulatory... management unit, as to whether the new product would materially alter the overall entity-wide risk profile of...

78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-22

... Management (HFA-305), Food and Drug Administration, 5630 Fishers Lane, Rm. 1061, Rockville, MD 20852... with elements to assure safe use (ETASU) before the Drug Safety and Risk Management Advisory Committee... incorporate the latest methodologies in the evolving science of risk management. In its February 2013 report...

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Managing Risk in Systems Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DePaoli, Marilyn M.; And Others

Stanford University's use of a risk assessment methodology to improve the management of systems development projects is discussed. After examining the concepts of hazard, peril, and risk as they relate to the system development process, three ways to assess risk are covered: size, structure, and technology. The overall objective for Stanford…

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

[Scientific and methodologic approaches to evaluating medical management for workers of Kazakhstan].

PubMed

2012-01-01

The article covers topical problems of workers' health preservation. Complex research results enabled to evaluate and analyze occupational risks in leading industries of Kazakhstan, for improving scientific and methodologic approaches to medical management for workers subjected to hazardous conditions.

17 CFR 39.5 - Review of swaps for Commission determination on clearing requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... publicly; (vi) Risk management procedures, including measurement and monitoring of credit exposures, initial and variation margin methodology, methodologies for stress testing and back testing, settlement procedures, and default management procedures; (vii) Applicable rules, manuals, policies, or procedures...

Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CASKEY, SUSAN; GAUDIOSO, JENNIFER; SALERNO, REYNOLDS

Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL SLUDGE INCINERATION

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution an...

DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL SLUDGE LANDFILLING

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution an...

Business resilience: Reframing healthcare risk management.

PubMed

Simeone, Cynthia L

2015-09-01

The responsibility of risk management in healthcare is fractured, with multiple stakeholders. Most hospitals and healthcare systems do not have a fully integrated risk management system that spans the entire organizational and operational structure for the delivery of key services. This article provides insight toward utilizing a comprehensive Business Resilience program and associated methodology to understand and manage organizational risk leading to organizational effectiveness and operational efficiencies, with the fringe benefit of realizing sustainable operational capability during adverse conditions. © 2015 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Assessing secondary soil salinization risk based on the PSR sustainability framework.

PubMed

Zhou, De; Lin, Zhulu; Liu, Liming; Zimmermann, David

2013-10-15

Risk assessment of secondary soil salinization, which is caused in part by the way people manage the land, is an essential challenge to agricultural sustainability. The objective of our study was to develop a soil salinity risk assessment methodology by selecting a consistent set of risk factors based on the conceptual Pressure-State-Response (PSR) sustainability framework and incorporating the grey relational analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process methods. The proposed salinity risk assessment methodology was demonstrated through a case study of developing composite risk index maps for the Yinchuan Plain, a major irrigation agriculture district in northwest China. Fourteen risk factors were selected in terms of the three PSR criteria: pressure, state, and response. The results showed that the salinity risk in the Yinchuan Plain was strongly influenced by the subsoil and groundwater salinity, land use, distance to irrigation canals, and depth to groundwater. To maintain agricultural sustainability in the Yinchuan Plain, a suite of remedial and preventative actions were proposed to manage soil salinity risk in the regions that are affected by salinity at different levels and by different salinization processes. The weight sensitivity analysis results also showed that the overall salinity risk of the Yinchuan Plain would increase or decrease as the weights for pressure or response risk factors increased, signifying the importance of human activities on secondary soil salinization. Ideally, the proposed methodology will help us develop more consistent management tools for risk assessment and management and for control of secondary soil salinization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1991-01-01

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.

Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

PubMed

Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-01

Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR SURFACE DISPOSAL OF MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include distribution and marketing programs, landfi...

Environmental Risk Assessment of dredging processes - application to Marin harbour (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, A. G.; García Alba, J.; Puente, A.; Juanes, J. A.

2014-04-01

A methodological procedure to estimate the environmental risk of dredging operations in aquatic systems has been developed. Environmental risk estimations are based on numerical models results, which provide an appropriated spatio-temporal framework analysis to guarantee an effective decision-making process. The methodological procedure has been applied on a real dredging operation in the port of Marin (NW Spain). Results from Marin harbour confirmed the suitability of the developed methodology and the conceptual approaches as a comprehensive and practical management tool.

Employment of Personnel at the Tucson Border Patrol Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY How should the Tucson Border Patrol Station optimally employ personnel? Using a case study research methodology141 provided...BORSTAR provide better capabilities to respond and greater mobility in risk management.155 The methodologies of case study comparatives include the...35 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

System Interdependency Modeling in the Design of Prognostic and Health Management Systems in Smart Manufacturing.

PubMed

Malinowski, M L; Beling, P A; Haimes, Y Y; LaViers, A; Marvel, J A; Weiss, B A

2015-01-01

The fields of risk analysis and prognostics and health management (PHM) have developed in a largely independent fashion. However, both fields share a common core goal. They aspire to manage future adverse consequences associated with prospective dysfunctions of the systems under consideration due to internal or external forces. This paper describes how two prominent risk analysis theories and methodologies - Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) and Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM) - can be adapted to support the design of PHM systems in the context of smart manufacturing processes. Specifically, the proposed methodologies will be used to identify targets - components, subsystems, or systems - that would most benefit from a PHM system in regards to achieving the following objectives: minimizing cost, minimizing production/maintenance time, maximizing system remaining usable life (RUL), maximizing product quality, and maximizing product output. HHM is a comprehensive modeling theory and methodology that is grounded on the premise that no system can be modeled effectively from a single perspective. It can also be used as an inductive method for scenario structuring to identify emergent forced changes (EFCs) in a system. EFCs connote trends in external or internal sources of risk to a system that may adversely affect specific states of the system. An important aspect of proactive risk management includes bolstering the resilience of the system for specific EFCs by appropriately controlling the states. Risk scenarios for specific EFCs can be the basis for the design of prognostic and diagnostic systems that provide real-time predictions and recognition of scenario changes. The HHM methodology includes visual modeling techniques that can enhance stakeholders' understanding of shared states, resources, objectives and constraints among the interdependent and interconnected subsystems of smart manufacturing systems. In risk analysis, HHM is often paired with Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM). The RFRM process provides the users, (e.g., technology developers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), technology integrators, manufacturers), with the most critical risks to the objectives, which can be used to identify the most critical components and subsystems that would most benefit from a PHM system. A case study is presented in which HHM and RFRM are adapted for PHM in the context of an active manufacturing facility located in the United States. The methodologies help to identify the critical risks to the manufacturing process, and the major components and subsystems that would most benefit from a developed PHM system.

System Interdependency Modeling in the Design of Prognostic and Health Management Systems in Smart Manufacturing

PubMed Central

Malinowski, M.L.; Beling, P.A.; Haimes, Y.Y.; LaViers, A.; Marvel, J.A.; Weiss, B.A.

2017-01-01

The fields of risk analysis and prognostics and health management (PHM) have developed in a largely independent fashion. However, both fields share a common core goal. They aspire to manage future adverse consequences associated with prospective dysfunctions of the systems under consideration due to internal or external forces. This paper describes how two prominent risk analysis theories and methodologies – Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) and Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM) – can be adapted to support the design of PHM systems in the context of smart manufacturing processes. Specifically, the proposed methodologies will be used to identify targets – components, subsystems, or systems – that would most benefit from a PHM system in regards to achieving the following objectives: minimizing cost, minimizing production/maintenance time, maximizing system remaining usable life (RUL), maximizing product quality, and maximizing product output. HHM is a comprehensive modeling theory and methodology that is grounded on the premise that no system can be modeled effectively from a single perspective. It can also be used as an inductive method for scenario structuring to identify emergent forced changes (EFCs) in a system. EFCs connote trends in external or internal sources of risk to a system that may adversely affect specific states of the system. An important aspect of proactive risk management includes bolstering the resilience of the system for specific EFCs by appropriately controlling the states. Risk scenarios for specific EFCs can be the basis for the design of prognostic and diagnostic systems that provide real-time predictions and recognition of scenario changes. The HHM methodology includes visual modeling techniques that can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of shared states, resources, objectives and constraints among the interdependent and interconnected subsystems of smart manufacturing systems. In risk analysis, HHM is often paired with Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM). The RFRM process provides the users, (e.g., technology developers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), technology integrators, manufacturers), with the most critical risks to the objectives, which can be used to identify the most critical components and subsystems that would most benefit from a PHM system. A case study is presented in which HHM and RFRM are adapted for PHM in the context of an active manufacturing facility located in the United States. The methodologies help to identify the critical risks to the manufacturing process, and the major components and subsystems that would most benefit from a developed PHM system. PMID:28664162

Managing Corporate Risk through Better Knowledge Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neef, Dale

2005-01-01

Purpose: To explain how progressive companies are using a combination of knowledge and risk management (KRM) systems and techniques in order to help them to prevent, or respond most effectively to, ethical or reputation-damaging incidents. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explains KRM, develops a corporate integrity framework, and then…

Intelligence Support to Supply Chain Risk Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

of Master of Science in Operations Analysis Charles L. Carter, MA Major, USAF June 2012 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR...literature regarding supply chain risk management and intelligence doctrine. This review established the importance of supply chain risk analysis to...risk analysis . This research culminated in the development of a methodology for intelligence professionals to use to support supply chain risk

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for Land Application and Distribution and Marketing of Municipal Sludge

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. The sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution a...

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

From event analysis to global lessons: disaster forensics for building resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keating, Adriana; Venkateswaran, Kanmani; Szoenyi, Michael; MacClune, Karen; Mechler, Reinhard

2016-04-01

With unprecedented growth in disaster risk, there is an urgent need for enhanced learning about and understanding disasters, particularly in relation to the trends in the drivers of increasing risk. Building on the disaster forensics field, we introduce the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) methodology for systematically and holistically analyzing disaster events, and identifying actionable recommendations. PERC responds to a need for learning about the successes and failures in disaster risk management and resilience, and uncovers the underlying drivers of increasing risk. We draw generalizable insights identified from seven applications of the methodology to date, where we find that across the globe policy makers and practitioners in disaster risk management face strikingly similar challenges despite variations in context, indicating encouraging potential for mutual learning. These lessons highlight the importance of integrated risk reduction strategies. We invite others to utilize the freely available PERC approach and contribute to building a repository of learnings on disaster risk management and resilience.

From event analysis to global lessons: disaster forensics for building resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keating, Adriana; Venkateswaran, Kanmani; Szoenyi, Michael; MacClune, Karen; Mechler, Reinhard

2016-07-01

With unprecedented growth in disaster risk, there is an urgent need for enhanced learning and understanding of disasters, particularly in relation to the trends in drivers of increasing risk. Building on the disaster forensics field, we introduce the post-event review capability (PERC) methodology for systematically and holistically analysing disaster events, and identifying actionable recommendations. PERC responds to a need for learning about the successes and failures in disaster risk management and resilience, and uncovers the underlying drivers of increasing risk. We draw generalisable insights identified from seven applications of the methodology to date, where we find that across the globe policy makers and practitioners in disaster risk management face strikingly similar challenges despite variations in context, indicating encouraging potential for mutual learning. These lessons highlight the importance of integrated risk reduction strategies. We invite others to utilise the freely available PERC approach and contribute to building a repository of learning on disaster risk management and resilience.

Intelligent systems/software engineering methodology - A process to manage cost and risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedlander, Carl; Lehrer, Nancy

1991-01-01

A systems development methodology is discussed that has been successfully applied to the construction of a number of intelligent systems. This methodology is a refinement of both evolutionary and spiral development methodologies. It is appropriate for development of intelligent systems. The application of advanced engineering methodology to the development of software products and intelligent systems is an important step toward supporting the transition of AI technology into aerospace applications. A description of the methodology and the process model from which it derives is given. Associated documents and tools are described which are used to manage the development process and record and report the emerging design.

Liquid Pipeline Operator's Control Room Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management Guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-11-26

The purpose of this guide is to document methodologies, tools, procedures, guidance, and instructions that have been developed to provide liquid pipeline operators with an efficient and effective means of managing the human factors risks in their con...

Assessing and managing risk of terrorism to Virginia's interdependent transportation systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

This study expanded on the scope of two previous contract studies for the Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC) completed in March 2002 and April 2003. The objective was to develop a methodology for the assessment and management of the risk...

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Ergonomic initiatives at Inmetro: measuring occupational health and safety.

PubMed

Drucker, L; Amaral, M; Carvalheira, C

2012-01-01

This work studies biomechanical hazards to which the workforce of Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia Industrial (Inmetro) is exposed. It suggests a model for ergonomic evaluation of work, based on the concepts of resilience engineering which take into consideration the institute's ability to manage risk and deal with its consequences. Methodology includes the stages of identification, inventory, analysis, and risk management. Diagnosis of the workplace uses as parameters the minimal criteria stated in Brazilian legislation. The approach has several prospectives and encompasses the points of view of public management, safety engineering, physical therapy and ergonomics-oriented design. The suggested solution integrates all aspects of the problem: biological, psychological, sociological and organizational. Results obtained from a pilot Project allow to build a significant sample of Inmetro's workforce, identifying problems and validating the methodology employed as a tool to be applied to the whole institution. Finally, this work intends to draw risk maps and support goals and methods based on resiliency engineering to assess environmental and ergonomic risk management.

Workshop-based methodology to understand the risks in grain export inspection and certification.

PubMed

Wilson, John R; Vaegen-Lloyd, Jo-Roxy; Caponecchia, Carlo

2009-07-01

Much of the human factors contribution in risk assessment and risk management has been focused on systems or product safety; the profession has a much smaller research base regarding risks to do with regulation, certification and public policy, for example. This paper discusses an explicitly human factors contribution to understanding and managing risk for the inspection and export certification of grain and plant products in Australia. Training and awareness workshops, incorporating elements of focus groups, were run for 12 groups of staff and managers from the government department concerned. As well as training in risk management the workshops were used to come to an understanding of the work of the inspectors and other staff, to identify the sources of risk to the successful completion of their work and to develop the basis for a risk assessment framework and tool. The paper is methodological in focus and describes the development and running of the workshops and explains how a human factors oriented risk register was developed on the basis of identification of potential threats and errors in the system. Whilst the contribution of ergonomics is increasingly important as regards safety risk assessment, professionals have been less active as regards business, public policy and even engineering risk. This paper describes an approach within which a new domain was studied and the risks of all kinds identified, preparatory to development of a risk assessment tool.

INDOOR AIR ASSESSMENT - A REVIEW OF INDOOR AIR QUALITY RISK CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment methodologies provide a mechanism for incorporating scientific evidence and Judgments Into the risk management decision process. isk characterization framework has been developed to provide a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk characterizati...

The 'bankability' of the new waste technologies: an econometric method for risk sharing in private finance waste contracts.

PubMed

Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J

2011-12-01

The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact.

[Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

PubMed

De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

2011-01-01

Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

EVALUATING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF GREEN CHEMISTRIES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory is developing a methodology for the evaluation of reaction chemistries. This methodology, called GREENSCOPE (Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for the ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Objective Proc...

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

ADA access to passenger vessels : finding safety equivalence solutions for weathertight doors with coamings : Phase 2 : a risk management approach to reconfiguration design solutions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-03-01

This report examines a risk management methodology to provide for both marine safety and disability access at weathertight doors into passenger accommodation spaces on U.S. passenger vessels. The Architectural and Transportation Barriers Compliance B...

A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Escales, Paula; Canelles, Arnau; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Folch, Albert; Kurtzman, Daniel; Rossetto, Rudy; Fernández-Escalante, Enrique; Lobo-Ferreira, João-Paulo; Sapiano, Manuel; San-Sebastián, Jon; Schüth, Christoph

2018-06-01

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of fault trees and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

Program Risk Planning with Risk as a Resource

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

1998-01-01

The current focus of NASA on cost effective ways of achieving mission objectives has created a demand for a change in the risk management process of a program. At present, there is no guidelines as to when risk taking is justified due to high cost for a marginal improvement in risk. As a remedial step, Dr. Greenfield of NASA, developed a concept of risk management with risk as a resource. In the report, the following topics are addressed: (1) the risk management approach; (2) planning risk and program life cycle; (3) key components of a typical program; (4) the risk trading methodology; (5) review and decision process; (6) merits of the proposed risk planning approach; and (7) recommendations.

Q methodology, risk training and quality management.

PubMed

McKeown, M; Hinks, M; Stowell-Smith, M; Mercer, D; Forster, J

1999-01-01

The results of a Q methodological study of professional understandings of the notion of risk in mental health services within the UK are discussed in relation to the relevance for staff training and quality assurance. The study attempted to access the diversity of understandings of risk issues amongst a multi-professional group of staff (n = 60) attending inter-agency risk training workshops in 1998. Q methodology is presented as both an appropriate means for such inquiry and as a novel experiential technique for training purposes. A tentative argument is advanced that the qualitative accounts generated by Q research could assist in systematic reviews of quality, complementing the singularly quantitative approaches typically represented in the audit process.

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

A Framework for the Next Generation of Risk Science

PubMed Central

Krewski, Daniel; Andersen, Melvin E.; Paoli, Gregory M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Croteau, Maxine C.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Cote, Ila

2014-01-01

Objectives: In 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated the NexGen project to develop a new paradigm for the next generation of risk science. Methods: The NexGen framework was built on three cornerstones: the availability of new data on toxicity pathways made possible by fundamental advances in basic biology and toxicological science, the incorporation of a population health perspective that recognizes that most adverse health outcomes involve multiple determinants, and a renewed focus on new risk assessment methodologies designed to better inform risk management decision making. Results: The NexGen framework has three phases. Phase I (objectives) focuses on problem formulation and scoping, taking into account the risk context and the range of available risk management decision-making options. Phase II (risk assessment) seeks to identify critical toxicity pathway perturbations using new toxicity testing tools and technologies, and to better characterize risks and uncertainties using advanced risk assessment methodologies. Phase III (risk management) involves the development of evidence-based population health risk management strategies of a regulatory, economic, advisory, community-based, or technological nature, using sound principles of risk management decision making. Conclusions: Analysis of a series of case study prototypes indicated that many aspects of the NexGen framework are already beginning to be adopted in practice. Citation: Krewski D, Westphal M, Andersen ME, Paoli GM, Chiu WA, Al-Zoughool M, Croteau MC, Burgoon LD, Cote I. 2014. A framework for the next generation of risk science. Environ Health Perspect 122:796–805; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307260 PMID:24727499

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Application of Lean Healthcare methodology in a urology department of a tertiary hospital as a tool for improving efficiency.

PubMed

Boronat, F; Budia, A; Broseta, E; Ruiz-Cerdá, J L; Vivas-Consuelo, D

To describe the application of the Lean methodology as a method for continuously improving the efficiency of a urology department in a tertiary hospital. The implementation of the Lean Healthcare methodology in a urology department was conducted in 3 phases: 1) team training and improvement of feedback among the practitioners, 2) management by process and superspecialisation and 3) improvement of indicators (continuous improvement). The indicators were obtained from the Hospital's information systems. The main source of information was the Balanced Scorecard for health systems management (CUIDISS). The comparison with other autonomous and national urology departments was performed through the same platform with the help of the Hospital's records department (IASIST). A baseline was established with the indicators obtained in 2011 for the comparative analysis of the results after implementing the Lean Healthcare methodology. The implementation of this methodology translated into high practitioner satisfaction, improved quality indicators reaching a risk-adjusted complication index (RACI) of 0.59 and a risk-adjusted mortality rate (RAMR) of 0.24 in 4 years. A value of 0.61 was reached with the efficiency indicator (risk-adjusted length of stay [RALOS] index), with a savings of 2869 stays compared with national Benchmarking (IASIST). The risk-adjusted readmissions index (RARI) was the only indicator above the standard, with a value of 1.36 but with progressive annual improvement of the same. The Lean methodology can be effectively applied to a urology department of a tertiary hospital to improve efficiency, obtaining significant and continuous improvements in all its indicators, as well as practitioner satisfaction. Team training, management by process, continuous improvement and delegation of responsibilities has been shown to be the fundamental pillars of this methodology. Copyright © 2017 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

AN OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR AIRPORT CONCRETE PAVEMENT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimomura, Taizo; Fujimori, Yuji; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Obama, Kengo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

In this paper, an optimal management model is formulated for the performance-based rehabilitation/maintenance contract for airport concrete pavement, whereby two types of life cycle cost risks, i.e., ground consolidation risk and concrete depreciation risk, are explicitly considered. The non-homogenous Markov chain model is formulated to represent the deterioration processes of concrete pavement which are conditional upon the ground consolidation processes. The optimal non-homogenous Markov decision model with multiple types of risk is presented to design the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans. And the methodology to revise the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans based upon the monitoring data by the Bayesian up-to-dating rules. The validity of the methodology presented in this paper is examined based upon the case studies carried out for the H airport.

Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

1996-01-01

Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

Multi-criteria decision assessments using Subjective Logic: Methodology and the case of urban water strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moglia, Magnus; Sharma, Ashok K.; Maheepala, Shiroma

2012-07-01

SummaryPlanning of regional and urban water resources, and in particular with Integrated Urban Water Management approaches, often considers inter-relationships between human uses of water, the health of the natural environment as well as the cost of various management strategies. Decision makers hence typically need to consider a combination of social, environmental and economic goals. The types of strategies employed can include water efficiency measures, water sensitive urban design, stormwater management, or catchment management. Therefore, decision makers need to choose between different scenarios and to evaluate them against a number of criteria. This type of problem has a discipline devoted to it, i.e. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, which has often been applied in water management contexts. This paper describes the application of Subjective Logic in a basic Bayesian Network to a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis problem. By doing this, it outlines a novel methodology that explicitly incorporates uncertainty and information reliability. The application of the methodology to a known case study context allows for exploration. By making uncertainty and reliability of assessments explicit, it allows for assessing risks of various options, and this may help in alleviating cognitive biases and move towards a well formulated risk management policy.

A risk-based approach to sanitary sewer pipe asset management.

PubMed

Baah, Kelly; Dubey, Brajesh; Harvey, Richard; McBean, Edward

2015-02-01

Wastewater collection systems are an important component of proper management of wastewater to prevent environmental and human health implications from mismanagement of anthropogenic waste. Due to aging and inadequate asset management practices, the wastewater collection assets of many cities around the globe are in a state of rapid decline and in need of urgent attention. Risk management is a tool which can help prioritize resources to better manage and rehabilitate wastewater collection systems. In this study, a risk matrix and a weighted sum multi-criteria decision-matrix are used to assess the consequence and risk of sewer pipe failure for a mid-sized city, using ArcGIS. The methodology shows that six percent of the uninspected sewer pipe assets of the case study have a high consequence of failure while four percent of the assets have a high risk of failure and hence provide priorities for inspection. A map incorporating risk of sewer pipe failure and consequence is developed to facilitate future planning, rehabilitation and maintenance programs. The consequence of failure assessment also includes a novel failure impact factor which captures the effect of structurally defective stormwater pipes on the failure assessment. The methodology recommended in this study can serve as a basis for future planning and decision making and has the potential to be universally applied by municipal sewer pipe asset managers globally to effectively manage the sanitary sewer pipe infrastructure within their jurisdiction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying Systems Thinking to Law Enforcement Safety: Recommendation for a Comprehensive Safety Management Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Occupational Injuries COPS Community Oriented Policing Services CRM Crew Resource Management DA Department of the Army FEMA Federal Emergency...establishes composite risk management ( CRM ), also known as crew resource management, “as the Army’s principal risk reduction methodology and assures...regulatory and statutory compliance.”106 CRM , also utilized by other branches within the military and by the aviation industry, is intended “to minimize

Assessing the effect of increased managed care on hospitals.

PubMed

Mowll, C A

1998-01-01

This study uses a new relative risk methodology developed by the author to assess and compare certain performance indicators to determine a hospital's relative degree of financial vulnerability, based on its location, to the effects of increased managed care market penetration. The study also compares nine financial measures to determine whether hospital in states with a high degree of managed-care market penetration experience lower levels of profitability, liquidity, debt service, and overall viability than hospitals in low managed care states. A Managed Care Relative Financial Risk Assessment methodology composed of nine measures of hospital financial and utilization performance is used to develop a high managed care state Composite Index and to determine the Relative Financial Risk and the Overall Risk Ratio for hospitals in a particular state. Additionally, financial performance of hospitals in the five highest managed care states is compared to hospitals in the five lowest states. While data from Colorado and Massachusetts indicates that hospital profitability diminishes as the level of managed care market penetration increases, the overall study results indicate that hospitals in high managed care states demonstrate a better cash position and higher profitability than hospitals in low managed care states. Hospitals in high managed care states are, however, more heavily indebted in relation to equity and have a weaker debt service coverage capacity. Moreover, the overall financial health and viability of hospitals in high managed care states is superior to that of hospitals in low managed care states.

EVALUATING METRICS FOR GREEN CHEMISTRIES: INFORMATION AND CALCULATION NEEDS

EPA Science Inventory

Research within the U.S. EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory is developing a methodology for the evaluation of green chemistries. This methodology called GREENSCOPE (Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for the ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Ob...

Proceedings of the tenth annual DOE low-level waste management conference: Session 2: Site performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-12-01

This document contains twelve papers on various aspects of low-level radioactive waste management. Topics of this volume include: performance assessment methodology; remedial action alternatives; site selection and site characterization procedures; intruder scenarios; sensitivity analysis procedures; mathematical models for mixed waste environmental transport; and risk assessment methodology. Individual papers were processed separately for the database. (TEM)

Information technology security system engineering methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Childs, D.

2003-01-01

A methodology is described for system engineering security into large information technology systems under development. The methodology is an integration of a risk management process and a generic system development life cycle process. The methodology is to be used by Security System Engineers to effectively engineer and integrate information technology security into a target system as it progresses through the development life cycle. The methodology can also be used to re-engineer security into a legacy system.

Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

PubMed

Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

2015-05-15

This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SIMPLIFYING EVALUATIONS OF GREEN CHEMISTRIES: HOW MUCH INFORMATION DO WE NEED?

EPA Science Inventory

Research within the U.S. EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory is developing a methodology for the evaluation of green chemistries. This methodology called GREENSCOPE (Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for the Environmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Ob...

Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

PubMed

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-06-01

Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

PubMed Central

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-01-01

Background Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. Methods After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. Results We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. Conclusion This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons. PMID:23961332

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

[The socio-hygienic monitoring as an integral system for health risk assessment and risk management at the regional level].

PubMed

Kuzmin, S V; Gurvich, V B; Dikonskaya, O V; Malykh, O L; Yarushin, S V; Romanov, S V; Kornilkov, A S

2013-01-01

The information and analytical framework for the introduction of health risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the Sverdlovsk Region is the system of socio-hygienic monitoring. Techniques of risk management that take into account the choice of most cost-effective and efficient actions for improvement of the sanitary and epidemiologic situation at the level of the region, municipality, or a business entity of the Russian Federation, have been developed and proposed. To assess the efficiency of planning and activities for health risk management common method approaches and economic methods of "cost-effectiveness" and "cost-benefit" analyses provided in method recommendations and introduced in the Russian Federation are applied.

Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raftery, Michael; Carter-Journet, Katrina

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

Root Source Analysis/ValuStream[Trade Mark] - A Methodology for Identifying and Managing Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Richard Lee

2008-01-01

Root Source Analysis (RoSA) is a systems engineering methodology that has been developed at NASA over the past five years. It is designed to reduce costs, schedule, and technical risks by systematically examining critical assumptions and the state of the knowledge needed to bring to fruition the products that satisfy mission-driven requirements, as defined for each element of the Work (or Product) Breakdown Structure (WBS or PBS). This methodology is sometimes referred to as the ValuStream method, as inherent in the process is the linking and prioritizing of uncertainties arising from knowledge shortfalls directly to the customer's mission driven requirements. RoSA and ValuStream are synonymous terms. RoSA is not simply an alternate or improved method for identifying risks. It represents a paradigm shift. The emphasis is placed on identifying very specific knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are the root sources of the risk (the why), rather than on assessing the WBS product(s) themselves (the what). In so doing RoSA looks forward to anticipate, identify, and prioritize knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are likely to create significant uncertainties/ risks (as compared to Root Cause Analysis, which is most often used to look back to discover what was not known, or was assumed, that caused the failure). Experience indicates that RoSA, with its primary focus on assumptions and the state of the underlying knowledge needed to define, design, build, verify, and operate the products, can identify critical risks that historically have been missed by the usual approaches (i.e., design review process and classical risk identification methods). Further, the methodology answers four critical questions for decision makers and risk managers: 1. What s been included? 2. What's been left out? 3. How has it been validated? 4. Has the real source of the uncertainty/ risk been identified, i.e., is the perceived problem the real problem? Users of the RoSA methodology have characterized it as a true bottoms up risk assessment.

The Application of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Methodology to Intrathecal Drug Delivery for Pain Management

PubMed Central

Patel, Teresa; Fisher, Stanley P.

2016-01-01

Objective This study aimed to utilize failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to transform clinical insights into a risk mitigation plan for intrathecal (IT) drug delivery in pain management. Methods The FMEA methodology, which has been used for quality improvement, was adapted to assess risks (i.e., failure modes) associated with IT therapy. Ten experienced pain physicians scored 37 failure modes in the following categories: patient selection for therapy initiation (efficacy and safety concerns), patient safety during IT therapy, and product selection for IT therapy. Participants assigned severity, probability, and detection scores for each failure mode, from which a risk priority number (RPN) was calculated. Failure modes with the highest RPNs (i.e., most problematic) were discussed, and strategies were proposed to mitigate risks. Results Strategic discussions focused on 17 failure modes with the most severe outcomes, the highest probabilities of occurrence, and the most challenging detection. The topic of the highest‐ranked failure mode (RPN = 144) was manufactured monotherapy versus compounded combination products. Addressing failure modes associated with appropriate patient and product selection was predicted to be clinically important for the success of IT therapy. Conclusions The methodology of FMEA offers a systematic approach to prioritizing risks in a complex environment such as IT therapy. Unmet needs and information gaps are highlighted through the process. Risk mitigation and strategic planning to prevent and manage critical failure modes can contribute to therapeutic success. PMID:27477689

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

Cyber-Informed Engineering: The Need for a New Risk Informed and Design Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Joseph Daniel; Anderson, Robert Stephen

Current engineering and risk management methodologies do not contain the foundational assumptions required to address the intelligent adversary’s capabilities in malevolent cyber attacks. Current methodologies focus on equipment failures or human error as initiating events for a hazard, while cyber attacks use the functionality of a trusted system to perform operations outside of the intended design and without the operator’s knowledge. These threats can by-pass or manipulate traditionally engineered safety barriers and present false information, invalidating the fundamental basis of a safety analysis. Cyber threats must be fundamentally analyzed from a completely new perspective where neither equipment nor human operationmore » can be fully trusted. A new risk analysis and design methodology needs to be developed to address this rapidly evolving threatscape.« less

The internal audit of clinical areas: a pilot of the internal audit methodology in a health service emergency department.

PubMed

Brown, Alison; Santilli, Mario; Scott, Belinda

2015-12-01

Governing bodies of health services need assurance that major risks to achieving the health service objectives are being controlled. Currently, the main assurance mechanisms generated within the organization are through the review of implementation of policies and procedures and review of clinical audits and quality data. The governing bodies of health services need more robust, objective data to inform their understanding of the control of clinical risks. Internal audit provides a methodological framework that provides independent and objective assurance to the governing body on the control of significant risks. The article describes the pilot of the internal audit methodology in an emergency unit in a health service. An internal auditor was partnered with a clinical expert to assess the application of clinical criteria based on best practice guidelines. The pilot of the internal audit of a clinical area was successful in identifying significant clinical risks that required further management. The application of an internal audit methodology to a clinical area is a promising mechanism to gain robust assurance at the governance level regarding the management of significant clinical risks. This approach needs further exploration and trial in a range of health care settings. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

DOE PAGES

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

2014-01-01

This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

The VeTOOLS Project: an example of how to strengthen collaboration between scientists and Civil Protections in disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Becerril, Laura

2016-04-01

VeTOOLS is a project funded by the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), and aims at creating an integrated software platform specially designed to assess and manage volcanic risk. The project facilitates interaction and cooperation between scientists and Civil Protection Agencies in order to share, unify, and exchange procedures, methodologies and technologies to effectively reduce the impacts of volcanic disasters. The project aims at 1) improving and developing volcanic risk assessment and management capacities in active volcanic regions; 2) developing universal methodologies, scenario definitions, response strategies and alert protocols to cope with the full range of volcanic threats; 4) improving quantitative methods and tools for vulnerability and risk assessment; and 5) defining thresholds and protocols for civil protection. With these objectives, the VeTOOLS project points to two of the Sendai Framework resolutions for implementing it: i) Provide guidance on methodologies and standards for risk assessments, disaster risk modelling and the use of data; ii) Promote and support the availability and application of science and technology to decision-making, and offers a good example on how a close collaboration between science and civil protection is an effective way to contribute to DRR. European Commission ECHO Grant SI2.695524

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

[Does clinical risk management require a structured conflict management?].

PubMed

Neumann, Stefan

2015-01-01

A key element of clinical risk management is the analysis of errors causing near misses or patient damage. After analyzing the causes and circumstances, measures for process improvement have to be taken. Process management, human resource development and other established methods are used. If an interpersonal conflict is a contributory factor to the error, there is usually no structured conflict management available which includes selection criteria for various methods of conflict processing. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder) has created a process model for introducing a structured conflict management system which is suitable for hospitals and could fill the gap in the methodological spectrum of clinical risk management. There is initial evidence that a structured conflict management reduces staff fluctuation and hidden conflict costs. This article should be understood as an impulse for discussion on to what extent the range of methods of clinical risk management should be complemented by conflict management.

Management methodology for pressure equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bletchly, P. J.

Pressure equipment constitutes a significant investment in capital and a major proportion of potential high-risk plant in many operations and this is particularly so in an alumina refinery. In many jurisdictions pressure equipment is also subject to statutory regulation that imposes obligations on Owners of the equipment with respect to workplace safety. Most modern technical standards and industry codes of practice employ a risk-based approach to support better decision making with respect to pressure equipment. For a management system to be effective it must demonstrate that risk is being managed within acceptable limits.

Applying the Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model (IRAMM) to the Assessment of Risk for Non-fuel Strategic Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

This is how risk has been quantified in the IRAMM methodology. The 2012 interviews highlighted that the product is not the best approach to quantifying ... risk in some situations, because it does not appropriately represent the respondent’s underlying beliefs about risk. In future versions of the

Aviation Accidents: CRM to Maintaining the Share of Airlines. Case Study on Accidents Airlines in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alnuaimi, Qussay A. B.

2015-01-01

We present Aviation Cost Risk management (CRM) methodology designed for Airlines Company, who needs to run projects beyond their normal. These airlines are critical to the survival of these organizations, such as the development and performance. The Aviation crisis can have considerable impact upon the value of the firm. Risk managers must focus…

A STATISTICAL MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR THE DETECTION, QUANTIFICATION, AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS

EPA Science Inventory

This study will provide a general methodology for integrating threshold information from multiple species ecological metrics, allow for prediction of changes of alternative stable states, and provide a risk assessment tool that can be applied to adaptive management. The integr...

Methodology for Knowledge Synthesis of the Management of Vaccination Pain and Needle Fear.

PubMed

Taddio, Anna; McMurtry, C Meghan; Shah, Vibhuti; Yoon, Eugene W; Uleryk, Elizabeth; Pillai Riddell, Rebecca; Lang, Eddy; Chambers, Christine T; Noel, Melanie; MacDonald, Noni E

2015-10-01

A knowledge synthesis was undertaken to inform the development of a revised and expanded clinical practice guideline about managing vaccination pain in children to include the management of pain across the lifespan and the management of fear in individuals with high levels of needle fear. This manuscript describes the methodological details of the knowledge synthesis and presents the list of included clinical questions, critical and important outcomes, search strategy, and search strategy results. The Grading of Assessments, Recommendations, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) and Cochrane methodologies provided the general framework. The project team voted on clinical questions for inclusion and critically important and important outcomes. A broad search strategy was used to identify relevant randomized-controlled trials and quasi-randomized-controlled trials. Quality of research evidence was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool and quality across studies was assessed using GRADE. Multiple measures of the same construct within studies (eg, observer-rated and parent-rated infant distress) were combined before pooling. The standardized mean difference and 95% confidence intervals (CI) or relative risk and 95% CI was used to express the effects of an intervention. Altogether, 55 clinical questions were selected for inclusion in the knowledge synthesis; 49 pertained to pain management during vaccine injections and 6 pertained to fear management in individuals with high levels of needle fear. Pain, fear, and distress were typically prioritized as critically important outcomes across clinical questions. The search strategy identified 136 relevant studies. This manuscript describes the methodological details of a knowledge synthesis about pain management during vaccination and fear management in individuals with high levels of needle fear. Subsequent manuscripts in this series will present the results for the included questions.

[OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT IN WORKERS IN IMPROVEMENT OF NATIONAL POLICY IN OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENE AND SAFETY].

PubMed

Shur, P Z; Zaĭtseva, N V; Alekseev, V B; Shliapnikov, D M

2015-01-01

In accordance with the international documents in the field of occupational safety and hygiene, the assessment and minimization of occupational risks is a key instrument for the health maintenance of workers. One of the main ways to achieve it is the minimization of occupational risks. Correspondingly, the instrument for the implementation of this method is the methodology of analysis of occupational risks. In Russian Federation there were the preconditions for the formation of the system for the assessment and management of occupational risks. As the target of the national (state) policy in the field of occupational safety in accordance with ILO Conventions it can be offered the prevention of accidents and injuries to health arising from work or related with it, minimizing the causes of hazards inherent in the working environment, as far as it is reasonably and practically feasible. Global trend ofusing the methodology of the assessment and management of occupational risks to life and health of citizens requires the improvement of national policies in the field of occupational hygiene and safety. Achieving an acceptable level of occupational risk in the formation of national policy in the field of occupational hygiene and safety can be considered as one of the main tasks.

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, William B.

1995-01-01

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

Meeting report: development of environmental health indicators in Brazil and other countries in the americas.

PubMed

Carneiro, Fernando F; Oliveira, Mara Lúcia C; Netto, Guilherme F; Galvão, Luis A C; Cancio, Jacira A; Bonini, Estela M; Corvalan, Carlos F

2006-09-01

This report summarizes the Brazilian experience on the design and implementation of environmental health, with contributions from Argentina, Canada, and Cuba, presented at the International Symposium on the Development of Indicators for Environmental Health Integrated Management, held in Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, on 17-18 June 2004. The methodology for the development of environmental health indicators has been used as a reference in the implementation of environmental health surveillance in Brazil. This methodology has provided tools and processes to facilitate the understanding and to measure the determinants of risks to environmental health, to help decision makers control those risks. Key words: environmental health indicators, environmental health surveillance, integrated management.

Human health and safety risks management in underground coal mines using fuzzy TOPSIS.

PubMed

Mahdevari, Satar; Shahriar, Kourosh; Esfahanipour, Akbar

2014-08-01

The scrutiny of health and safety of personnel working in underground coal mines is heightened because of fatalities and disasters that occur every year worldwide. A methodology based on fuzzy TOPSIS was proposed to assess the risks associated with human health in order to manage control measures and support decision-making, which could provide the right balance between different concerns, such as safety and costs. For this purpose, information collected from three hazardous coal mines namely Hashouni, Hojedk and Babnizu located at the Kerman coal deposit, Iran, were used to manage the risks affecting the health and safety of their miners. Altogether 86 hazards were identified and classified under eight categories: geomechanical, geochemical, electrical, mechanical, chemical, environmental, personal, and social, cultural and managerial risks. Overcoming the uncertainty of qualitative data, the ranking process is accomplished by fuzzy TOPSIS. After running the model, twelve groups with different risks were obtained. Located in the first group, the most important risks with the highest negative effects are: materials falling, catastrophic failure, instability of coalface and immediate roof, firedamp explosion, gas emission, misfire, stopping of ventilation system, wagon separation at inclines, asphyxiation, inadequate training and poor site management system. According to the results, the proposed methodology can be a reliable technique for management of the minatory hazards and coping with uncertainties affecting the health and safety of miners when performance ratings are imprecise. The proposed model can be primarily designed to identify potential hazards and help in taking appropriate measures to minimize or remove the risks before accidents can occur. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A macro environmental risk assessment methodology for establishing priorities among risks to human health and the environment in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gernhofer, S.; Oliver, T.J.; Vasquez, R.

1994-12-31

A macro environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodology was developed for the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as part of the US Agency for International Development Industrial Environmental Management Project. The DENR allocates its limited resources to mitigate those environmental problems that pose the greatest threat to human health and the environment. The National Regional Industry Prioritization Strategy (NRIPS) methodology was developed as a risk assessment tool to establish a national ranking of industrial facilities. The ranking establishes regional and national priorities, based on risk factors, that DENR can use to determine the most effective allocation of itsmore » limited resources. NRIPS is a systematic framework that examines the potential risk to human health and the environment from hazardous substances released from a facility, and, in doing so, generates a relative numerical score that represents that risk. More than 3,300 facilities throughout the Philippines were evaluated successfully with the NRIPS.« less

Risk-based requirements management framework with applications to assurance cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Eyster, C.

The current regulatory approach for assuring device safety primarily focuses on compliance with prescriptive safety regulations and relevant safety standards. This approach, however, does not always lead to a safe system design even though safety regulations and standards have been met. In the medical device industry, several high profile recalls involving infusion pumps have prompted the regulatory agency to reconsider how device safety should be managed, reviewed and approved. An assurance case has been cited as a promising tool to address this growing concern. Assurance cases have been used in safety-critical systems for some time. Most assurance cases, if not all, in literature today are developed in an ad hoc fashion, independent from risk management and requirement development. An assurance case is a resource-intensive endeavor that requires additional effort and documentation from equipment manufacturers. Without a well-organized requirements infrastructure in place, such “ additional effort” can be substantial, to the point where the cost of adoption outweighs the benefit of adoption. In this paper, the authors present a Risk-Based Requirements and Assurance Management (RBRAM) methodology. The RBRAM is an elaborate framework that combines Risk-Based Requirements Management (RBRM) with assurance case methods. Such an integrated framework can help manufacturers leverage an existing risk management to present a comprehensive assurance case with minimal additional effort while providing a supplementary means to reexamine the integrity of the system design in terms of the mission objective. Although the example used is from the medical industry, the authors believe that the RBRAM methodology underlines the fundamental principle of risk management, and offers a simple, yet effective framework applicable to aerospace industry, perhaps, to any industry.

Marine ecological risk assessment methods for radiation accidents.

PubMed

Ye, Sufen; Zhang, Luoping; Feng, Huan

2017-12-01

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool that can be used to analyze potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts. With the rapid development of nuclear power plants in coastal areas around the world, the establishment of approaches and methodologies for marine ERA with a focus on radiation accidents is an urgent requirement for marine environmental management. In this study, the approaches and methodologies for ERA pertaining to marine radiation accidents (MRA) are discussed and summarized with applications in case studies, such as the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, and a hypothetical accident in Daya Bay, China. The concepts of ERA and Risk Degree of ERA on MRA are defined for the first time to optimize the ERA system. The results of case studies show that the ERA approach and methodology for MRA are scientifically sound and effective in both the early and late stage of MRAs along with classic ERA Approach and the ERICA Integrated Approach. The results can be useful in the decision-making processes and the risk management at the beginning of accident as well as the ecological restoration after the accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

Requirement Metrics for Risk Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore; Huffman, Lenore; Wilson, William; Rosenberg, Linda; Hyatt, Lawrence

1996-01-01

The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) is part of the Office of Mission Assurance of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The SATC's mission is to assist National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) projects to improve the quality of software which they acquire or develop. The SATC's efforts are currently focused on the development and use of metric methodologies and tools that identify and assess risks associated with software performance and scheduled delivery. This starts at the requirements phase, where the SATC, in conjunction with software projects at GSFC and other NASA centers is working to identify tools and metric methodologies to assist project managers in identifying and mitigating risks. This paper discusses requirement metrics currently being used at NASA in a collaborative effort between the SATC and the Quality Assurance Office at GSFC to utilize the information available through the application of requirements management tools.

Thermal disposal of waste containing nanomaterials: first investigations on a methodology for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ounoughene, G.; LeBihan, O.; Debray, B.; Chivas-Joly, C.; Longuet, C.; Joubert, A.; Lopez-Cuesta, J.-M.; Le Coq, L.

2017-06-01

Considering the wide use and production of NMs since last two decades, these trendy nanomaterials (NMs) are expected to end up in thermal disposal and waste incineration plants (WIP). It seems relevant to assess the risks related to the thermal disposal and incineration of waste containing NMs (WCNMs). The objective of this work is to present a first approach to develop a preliminary methodology for risk management in order (1) to give insights on nanosafety of exposed operators and on potential environmental risks related to the incineration and thermal disposal of WCNMs, and (2) to eventually support decision-makers and incineration plant managers. Therefore, the main challenge is to find (a) key parameter(s) which would govern the decision related to risk management of NMs thermal disposal. On the one hand, we focused on the relevant literature studies about experimental works on incineration of NMs. On the other hand, we conducted an introductory discussion with a group of experts. The review of this literature highlights that the nano-object’s nanostructure destruction appears as a relevant indicator of the risks related to the NMs incineration. As a consequence, we defined a “temperature of nanostructure destruction” (TND) which would be the temperature from which the nanostructure will be destroyed. This parameter has been assumed to be a consistent indicator to develop a preliminary methodology. If the combustion chamber temperature is higher than the TND of the NM (or if they are close to each other), then the nanostructure will be destroyed and no risks related to NMs remain. If the TND of the NMs is higher than the combustion chamber temperature, then the nanostructure will not be destroyed and risks related to NMs have to be considered. As a result, five groups of NMs have been identified. WCNMs including carbonic NMs appear to be in good position to be destroyed safely in WIP. On the other hand, based on this criterion, there would be no available thermal disposal plants to safely manage WCNMs including CeO2 and ZrO2. Finally, a decision tree has been designed. TND is used as criteria to assess if a waste can be managed safely or not by a specific thermal disposal and which safety measures have to be taken.

A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover, population density, economic activities) of several case studies in order to develop risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot-spot areas and targets at risk at the regional scale. The main outputs of the RRA are receptor-based maps of risks useful to communicate the potential implications of floods in non-monetary terms to stakeholders and administrations. These maps can be a basis for the management of flood risks as they can provide information about the indicative number of inhabitants, the type of economic activities, natural systems and cultural heritages potentially affected by flooding. Moreover, they can provide suitable information about flood risk in the considered area in order to define priorities for prevention measures, for land use planning and management. Finally, the outputs of the RRA methodology can be used as data input in the Socio- Economic Regional Risk Assessment methodology for the economic evaluation of different damages (e.g. tangible costs, intangible costs) and for the social assessment considering the benefits of the human dimension of vulnerability (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity). Within the KULTURisk project, the methodology has been applied and validated in several European case studies. Moreover, its generalization to address other types of natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires) will be evaluated. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the KULTURisk project will be here presented and discussed.

Concerns related to Safety Management of Engineered Nanomaterials in research environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groso, A.; Meyer, Th

2013-04-01

Since the rise of occupational safety and health research on nanomaterials a lot of progress has been made in generating health effects and exposure data. However, when detailed quantitative risk analysis is in question, more research is needed, especially quantitative measures of workers exposure and standards to categorize toxicity/hazardousness data. In the absence of dose-response relationships and quantitative exposure measurements, control banding (CB) has been widely adopted by OHS community as a pragmatic tool in implementing a risk management strategy based on a precautionary approach. Being in charge of health and safety in a Swiss university, where nanomaterials are largely used and produced, we are also faced with the challenge related to nanomaterials' occupational safety. In this work, we discuss the field application of an in-house risk management methodology similar to CB as well as some other methodologies. The challenges and issues related to the process will be discussed. Since exact data on nanomaterials hazardousness are missing for most of the situations, we deduce that the outcome of the analysis for a particular process is essentially the same with a simple methodology that determines only exposure potential and the one taking into account the hazardousness of ENPs. It is evident that when reliable data on hazardousness factors (as surface chemistry, solubility, carcinogenicity, toxicity etc.) will be available, more differentiation will be possible in determining the risk for different materials. On the protective measures side, all CB methodologies are inclined to overprotection side, only that some of them suggest comprehensive protective/preventive measures and others remain with basic advices. The implementation and control of protective measures in research environment will also be discussed.

Minutes of the Explosives Safety Seminar (20th) Held at OMNI international Hotel, Norfolk, Virginia on 24-26 August 1982. Volume I

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-08-01

between one that provides for total protection of life and property and one that per- mits operators to conduct activities in a " laisse - faire " manner...Workers. AD-PO00 456 General Risk Analysis Methodological Implications to Explosives Risk Management Systems. AD-PO0O 457 Risk Analysis for Explosives...THE EFFECTS OF THE HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK ACT, 1974, ON MILITARY EXPLOSIVES SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN THE UNITED KINGDOM ........................ 7 Air

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Protecting Unesco World Heritage PROPERTIES'S Integrity: the Role of Recording and Documentation in Risk Management for PETRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santana Quintero, M.; Cesaro, G.; Ishakat, F.; Vandesande, A.; Vileikis, O.; Vadafari, A.; Paolini, A.; Van Balen, K.; Fakhoury, L.

2012-07-01

Risk management - as it has been defined - involves the decision-making process following a risk assessment (Ball, Watt, 2003). It is the process that involves managing to minimize losses and impacts on the significant of historic structures and to reach the balance between gaining and losing opportunities. This contribution explains the "heritage information" platform developed using low-cost recording, documentation and information management tools to serve as container for assessments resulting from the application of a risk methodology at a pilot area of the Petra Archaeological Park, in particular those that permit digitally and cost effective to prepare an adequate baseline record to identify disturbances and threats. Furthermore, this paper will reflect on the issue of mapping the World Heritage property's boundaries by illustrating a methodology developed during the project and further research to overcome the lack of boundaries and buffer zone for the protection of the Petra World Heritage site, as identified in this project. This paper is based on on-going field project from a multidisciplinary team of experts from the Raymond Lemaire International Centre for Conservation (University of Leuven), UNESCO Amman, Petra Development Tourism and Region Authority (PDTRA), and Jordan's Department of Antiquities (DoA), as well as, experts from Jordan. The recording and documentation approach included in this contribution is part of an on-going effort to develop a methodology for mitigating (active and preventive) risks on the Petra Archaeological Park (Jordan). The risk assessment has been performed using non-intrusive techniques, which involve simple global navigation satellite system (GNSS), photography, and structured visual inspection, as well as, a heritage information framework based on Geographic Information Systems. The approach takes into consideration the comparison of vulnerability to sites with the value assessment to prioritize monuments at risk based on their importance of significance and magnitude of risk, in order for the authorities to plan more in-depth assessment for those highly significant monuments or areas at risk. A decision tool is envisaged as outcome of this project.

Risk-cost-benefit analysis of atrazine in drinking water from agricultural activities and policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfamichael, Aklilu A.; Caplan, Arthur J.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2005-05-01

This study provides an improved methodology for investigating the trade-offs between the health risks and economic benefits of using atrazine in the agricultural sector by incorporating public attitude to pesticide management in the analysis. Regression models are developed to predict finished water atrazine concentration in high-risk community water supplies in the United States. The predicted finished water atrazine concentrations are then used in a health risk assessment. The computed health risks are compared with the total economic surplus in the U.S. corn market for different atrazine application rates using estimated demand and supply functions developed in this work. Analysis of different scenarios with consumer price premiums for chemical-free and reduced-chemical corn indicate that if the society is willing to pay a price premium, risks can be reduced without a large reduction in the total economic surplus and net benefits may be higher. The results also show that this methodology provides an improved scientific framework for future decision making and policy evaluation in pesticide management.

Cyber crime: can a standard risk analysis help in the challenges facing business continuity managers?

PubMed

Vande Putte, Danny; Verhelst, Marc

Risk management has never been easy. Finding efficient mitigating measures is not always straightforward. Finding measures for cyber crime, however, is a really huge challenge because cyber threats are changing all the time. As the sophistication of these threats is growing, their impact increases. Moreover, society and its economy have become increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. Standard risk analysis methodologies will help to score the cyber risk and to place it in the risk tolerance matrix. This will allow business continuity managers to figure out if there is still a gap with the maximum tolerable outage for time-critical business processes and if extra business continuity measures are necessary to fill the gap.

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-03-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-04-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rath, F.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Eutrophication assessment and management methodology of multiple pollution sources of a landscape lake in North China.

PubMed

Chen, Yanxi; Niu, Zhiguang; Zhang, Hongwei

2013-06-01

Landscape lakes in the city suffer high eutrophication risk because of their special characters and functions in the water circulation system. Using a landscape lake HMLA located in Tianjin City, North China, with a mixture of point source (PS) pollution and non-point source (NPS) pollution, we explored the methodology of Fluent and AQUATOX to simulate and predict the state of HMLA, and trophic index was used to assess the eutrophication state. Then, we use water compensation optimization and three scenarios to determine the optimal management methodology. Three scenarios include ecological restoration scenario, best management practices (BMPs) scenario, and a scenario combining both. Our results suggest that the maintenance of a healthy ecosystem with ecoremediation is necessary and the BMPs have a far-reaching effect on water reusing and NPS pollution control. This study has implications for eutrophication control and management under development for urbanization in China.

An Approach to Reducing Risk through School System Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottfredson, Gary D.; Gottfredson, Denise C.

This paper provides school district administrators with a structured method for developing school programs aimed at reducing the risk of adolescent dropout. The methodology encompasses problem definition, fact finding, mission management, overcoming inertia, cohering programs tied to theory, feasible goal-setting, and normative personnel…

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management.

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

Validation of Air Force Hazard Assessment Rating Methodology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

the product of the probability and magnitude of each undesirable possible outcome, integrated or summed over all undesirable outcomes [28:5]. Risk...is difficult to keep risk management factors out of the risk assessment process (27:35). Site Contamination. Since site contamination is a major part...same standards for risks from new products and industries as it does for old products and industries. The risks of new products are screened very

A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

An Integrative Review of Multicomponent Weight Management Interventions for Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doherty, Alison J.; Jones, Stephanie P.; Chauhan, Umesh; Gibson, Josephine M. E.

2018-01-01

Background: Obesity is more prevalent in people with intellectual disabilities and increases the risk of developing serious medical conditions. UK guidance recommends multicomponent weight management interventions (MCIs), tailored for different population groups. Methods: An integrative review utilizing systematic review methodology was conducted…

The Irma-sponge Program: Methodologies For Sustainable Flood Risk Management Along The Rhine and Meuse Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooijer, A.; van Os, A. G.

Recent flood events and socio-economic developments have increased the awareness of the need for improved flood risk management along the Rhine and Meuse Rivers. In response to this, the IRMA-SPONGE program incorporated 13 research projects in which over 30 organisations from all 6 River Basin Countries co-operated. The pro- gram is financed partly by the European INTERREG Rhine-Meuse Activities (IRMA). The main aim of IRMA-SPONGE is defined as: "The development of methodologies and tools to assess the impact of flood risk reduction measures and of land-use and climate change scenarios. This to support the spatial planning process in establish- ing alternative strategies for an optimal realisation of the hydraulic, economical and ecological functions of the Rhine and Meuse River Basins." Further important objec- tives are to promote transboundary co-operation in flood risk management by both scientific and management organisations, and to promote public participation in flood management issues. The projects in the program are grouped in three clusters, looking at measures from different scientific angles. The results of the projects in each cluster have been evaluated to define recommendations for flood risk management; some of these outcomes call for a change to current practices, e.g.: 1. (Flood Risk and Hydrol- ogy cluster): hydrological changes due to climate change exceed those due to further land use change, and are significant enough to necessitate a change in flood risk man- agement strategies if the currently claimed protection levels are to be sustained. 2. (Flood Protection and Ecology cluster): to not only provide flood protection but also enhance the ecological quality of rivers and floodplains, new flood risk management concepts ought to integrate ecological knowledge from start to finish, with a clear perspective on the type of nature desired and the spatial and time scales considered. 3. (Flood Risk Management and Spatial Planning cluster): extreme floods can not be prevented by taking mainly upstream measures; significant and space-consuming lo- cal measures will therefore be needed in the lower Rhine and Meuse deltas. However, there is also a need for improved flood risk management upstream, which calls for better spatial planning procedures. More detailed information on the IRMA-SPONGE program can be found on our website: www.irma-sponge.org.

Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

PubMed

Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

Surveying Consumer Satisfaction to Assess Managed-Care Quality: Current Practices

PubMed Central

Gold, Marsha; Wooldridge, Judith

1995-01-01

Growing interest in using consumer satisfaction information to enhance quality of care and promote informed consumer choice has accompanied recent expansions in managed care. This article synthesizes information about consumer satisfaction surveys conducted by managed-care plans, government and other agencies, community groups, and purchasers of care. We discuss survey content, methods, and use of consumer survey information. Differences in the use of consumer surveys preclude one instrument or methodology from meeting all needs. The effectiveness of plan-based surveys could be enhanced by increased information on alternative survey instruments and methods and new methodological studies, such as ones developing risk-adjustment methods. PMID:10151887

Approach for Assessing Direct Flood Damages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaňová, Lenka; Zeleňáková, Martina; Słyś, Daniel; Purcz, Pavol

2014-11-01

This article presents a methodological approach to flood direct tangible damage - damage to assets and direct intangible damage - environmental damage and loss of life assessment. The assessment of flood risk is an essential part of the risk management approach, which is the conceptual basis for the EU directive 2007/60/ES on the assessment and management of flood risk. The purpose of this directive is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risk, aiming at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with flood in the community. Overall, an accurate estimation of negative effects on assets, environment and people is important in order to be able to determine the economy, environmental and social flood risk level in a system and the effects of risk mitigation measures.

Ten Years Experience In Geo-Databases For Linear Facilities Risk Assessment (Lfra)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oboni, F.

2003-04-01

Keywords: geo-environmental, database, ISO14000, management, decision-making, risk, pipelines, roads, railroads, loss control, SAR, hazard identification ABSTRACT: During the past decades, characterized by the development of the Risk Management (RM) culture, a variety of different RM models have been proposed by governmental agencies in various parts of the world. The most structured models appear to have originated in the field of environmental RM. These models are briefly reviewed in the first section of the paper focusing the attention on the difference between Hazard Management and Risk Management and the need to use databases in order to allow retrieval of specific information and effective updating. The core of the paper reviews a number of different RM approaches, based on extensions of geo-databases, specifically developed for linear facilities (LF) in transportation corridors since the early 90s in Switzerland, Italy, Canada, the US and South America. The applications are compared in terms of methodology, capabilities and resources necessary to their implementation. The paper then focuses the attention on the level of detail that applications and related data have to attain. Common pitfalls related to decision making based on hazards rather than on risks are discussed. The paper focuses the last sections on the description of the next generation of linear facility RA application, including examples of results and discussion of future methodological research. It is shown that geo-databases should be linked to loss control and accident reports in order to maximize their benefits. The links between RA and ISO 14000 (environmental management code) are explicitly considered.

Comparing factors of vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities affected by landslides in Eastern Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Dubois, Jerome; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

This paper describes a methodology for assessing and quantifying vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities in Eastern Nepal increasingly affected by landslides and flooding. We are interested in improving our understanding of the complex interactions between land use, landslides and multiple dimensions of risk, vulnerability and resilience to better target risk management strategies. Our approach is based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical factors that cause vulnerability and on the other hand, those resources and capacities that increase resilience. Increasing resilience to disasters is frequently used by NGOs, governments and donors as the main goal of disaster risk reduction policies and practices. If we are to increase resilience to disasters, we need better guidance and tools for defining, assessing and monitoring its parameters. To do so, we are establishing a methodology for quantifying and mapping an index of resilience to compare resilience factors between households and communities based on interdisciplinary research methods: remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping, household questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Our study applied this methodology to several communities in Eastern Nepal where small, frequent landslides are greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. These landslides are not captured by headlines or official statistics but are examples of cumulative, hidden disasters, which are impacting everyday life and rural poverty in the Himalayas. Based on experience, marginalized populations are often aware of the physical risks and the limitations of their land. However, they continue to live in dangerous places out of necessity and for the economic or infrastructure opportunities offered. We compare two communities in Nepal, both affected by landslides but with different land use, migration patterns, education levels, social networks, risk reduction and coping strategies. Stone quarrying and road construction, offering economic opportunities, are aggravating landslide problems. The villages are faced with a delicate balance between economic development and physical risk in this fragile terrain. Based on our comparison, we discern which factors contribute to vulnerability and resilience, while drawing conclusions about the limitations of these concepts for developing risk management strategies. Our goal is to keep this method relatively simple, low cost and useful to decision-makers and communities for managing and designing integrated development and risk management approaches under changing climate conditions.

76 FR 15301 - Pacific Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-21

... Council Direction for 2011 Management Measures for Analysis 5. Essential Fish Habitat Review 6. Adoption... Review 3. Periodic Essential Fish Habitat Review Process 4. Formation of Risk Pools under the Trawl... Service Report 2. Exempted Fishing Permit for 2011 Aerial Survey 3. CPS Survey Methodology D. Habitat...

Introducing a Transdisciplinary Approach in Studies regarding Risk Assessment and Management in Educational Programs for Environmental Engineers and Planners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menoni, Scira

2006-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss how long term risk prevention and civil protection may enter in university programs for environmental engineers and urban and regional planners. Design/methodology/approach: First the distinction between long term risk prevention and emergency preparedness is made, showing that while the first has…

Criteria for the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) safety evaluation process for fragrance ingredients.

PubMed

Api, A M; Belsito, D; Bruze, M; Cadby, P; Calow, P; Dagli, M L; Dekant, W; Ellis, G; Fryer, A D; Fukayama, M; Griem, P; Hickey, C; Kromidas, L; Lalko, J F; Liebler, D C; Miyachi, Y; Politano, V T; Renskers, K; Ritacco, G; Salvito, D; Schultz, T W; Sipes, I G; Smith, B; Vitale, D; Wilcox, D K

2015-08-01

The Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) has been engaged in the generation and evaluation of safety data for fragrance materials since its inception over 45 years ago. Over time, RIFM's approach to gathering data, estimating exposure and assessing safety has evolved as the tools for risk assessment evolved. This publication is designed to update the RIFM safety assessment process, which follows a series of decision trees, reflecting advances in approaches in risk assessment and new and classical toxicological methodologies employed by RIFM over the past ten years. These changes include incorporating 1) new scientific information including a framework for choosing structural analogs, 2) consideration of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), 3) the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for dermal sensitization, 4) the respiratory route of exposure, 5) aggregate exposure assessment methodology, 6) the latest methodology and approaches to risk assessments, 7) the latest alternatives to animal testing methodology and 8) environmental risk assessment. The assessment begins with a thorough analysis of existing data followed by in silico analysis, identification of 'read across' analogs, generation of additional data through in vitro testing as well as consideration of the TTC approach. If necessary, risk management may be considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new methodology to identify surface water bodies at risk by using pesticide monitoring data: The glyphosate case study in Lombardy Region (Italy).

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2018-01-01

In the last decades, several monitoring programs were established as an effect of EU Directives addressing the quality of water resources (drinking water, groundwater and surface water). Plant Protection Products (PPPs) are an obvious target of monitoring activities, since they are directly released into the environment. One of the challenges in managing the risk of pesticides at the territorial scale is identifying the locations in water bodies needing implementation of risk mitigation measures. In this, the national pesticides monitoring plans could be very helpful. However, monitoring of pesticides is a challenging task because of the high number of registered pesticides, cost of analyses, and the periodicity of sampling related to pesticide application and use. Extensive high-quality data-sets are consequently often missing. More in general, the information that can be obtained from monitoring studies are frequently undervalued by risk managers. In this study, we propose a new methodology providing indications about the need to implement mitigation measures in stretches of surface water bodies on a territory by combining historical series of monitoring data and GIS. The methodology is articulated in two distinct phases: a) acquisition of monitoring data and setting-up of informative layers of georeferenced data (phase 1) and b) statistical and expert analysis for the identification of areas where implementation of limitation or mitigation measures are suggested (phase 2). Our methodology identifies potentially vulnerable water bodies, considering temporal contamination trends and relative risk levels at selected monitoring stations. A case study is presented considering glyphosate monitoring data in Lombardy Region (Northern of Italy) for the 2008-2014 period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CONSULTATION ON UPDATED METHODOLOGY FOR ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) expects to publish the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) committee's report (BEIR VII) on risks from ionizing radiation exposures in calendar year 2005. The committee is expected to have analyzed the most recent epidemiology from the important exposed cohorts and to have factored in any changes resulting from the updated analysis of dosimetry for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. To the extent practical, the Committee will also consider any relevant radiobiological data, including those from the Department of Energy's low dose effects research program. Based on their evaluation of relevant information, the Committee is then expected to propose a set of models for estimating risks from low-dose ionizing radiation. ORIA will review the BEIR VII report and consider revisions to the Agency's methodology for estimating cancer risks from exposure to ionizing radiation in light of this report and other relevant information. This will be the subject of the Consultation. This project supports a major risk management initiative to improve the basis on which radiation risk decisions are made. This project, funded by several Federal Agencies, reflects an attempt to characterize risks where there are substantial uncertainties. The outcome will improve our ability to assess risks well into the future and will strengthen EPAs overall capability for assessing and managing radiation risks. the BEIR VII report is funde

The Contribution of Human Factors in Military System Development: Methodological Considerations

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Risk/Uncertainty Analysis - Project Scoring - Utility Scales - Relevance Tree Techniques (Reverse Factor Analysis) 2. Computer Simulation Simulation...effectiveness of mathematical models for R&D project selection. Management Science, April 1973, 18. 6-43 .1~ *.-. Souder, W.E. h scoring methodology for...per some interval PROFICIENCY test scores (written) RADIATION radiation effects aircrew performance on radiation environments REACTION TIME 1) (time

A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

PubMed

Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

2009-02-01

The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example.

Observational studies of the association between glucose-lowering medications and cardiovascular outcomes: addressing methodological limitations.

PubMed

Patorno, Elisabetta; Patrick, Amanda R; Garry, Elizabeth M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Gillet, Victoria G; Bartels, Dorothee B; Masso-Gonzalez, Elvira; Seeger, John D

2014-11-01

Recent years have witnessed a growing body of observational literature on the association between glucose-lowering treatments and cardiovascular disease. However, many of the studies are based on designs or analyses that inadequately address the methodological challenges involved. We reviewed recent observational literature on the association between glucose-lowering medications and cardiovascular outcomes and assessed the design and analysis methods used, with a focus on their ability to address specific methodological challenges. We describe and illustrate these methodological issues and their impact on observed associations, providing examples from the reviewed literature. We suggest approaches that may be employed to manage these methodological challenges. From the evaluation of 81 publications of observational investigations assessing the association between glucose-lowering treatments and cardiovascular outcomes, we identified the following methodological challenges: 1) handling of temporality in administrative databases; 2) handling of risks that vary with time and treatment duration; 3) definitions of the exposure risk window; 4) handling of exposures that change over time; and 5) handling of confounding by indication. Most of these methodological challenges may be suitably addressed through application of appropriate methods. Observational research plays an increasingly important role in the evaluation of the clinical effects of diabetes treatment. Implementation of appropriate research methods holds the promise of reducing the potential for spurious findings and the risk that the spurious findings will mislead the medical community about risks and benefits of diabetes medications.

Value-driven ERM: making ERM an engine for simultaneous value creation and value protection.

PubMed

Celona, John; Driver, Jeffrey; Hall, Edward

2011-01-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) began as an effort to integrate the historically disparate silos of risk management in organizations. More recently, as recognition has grown of the need to cover the upside risks in value creation (financial and otherwise), organizations and practitioners have been searching for the means to do this. Existing tools such as heat maps and risk registers are not adequate for this task. Instead, a conceptually new value-driven framework is needed to realize the promise of enterprise-wide coverage of all risks, for both value protection and value creation. The methodology of decision analysis provides the means of capturing systemic, correlated, and value-creation risks on the same basis as value protection risks and has been integrated into the value-driven approach to ERM described in this article. Stanford Hospital and Clinics Risk Consulting and Strategic Decisions Group have been working to apply this value-driven ERM at Stanford University Medical Center. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Improving the Security of the U.S. Aeronautical Domain: Adopting an Intelligence-Led, Risk-Based Strategy and Partnership

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

Methodology RMAT Risk Management Assessment Tool SIDA Security Identification Display Area SIGINT Signals Intelligence SO18 Aviation Security...aircraft operate (§ 1542.203); • Provide detection and physical security measures for the “Security Identification Display Area” ( SIDA ), i.e., the area

75 FR 55619 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-13

... Numerical Simulations Risk Management Methodology September 7, 2010. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the... for incorporation in the System for Theoretical Analysis and Numerical Simulations (``STANS'') risk... ETFs \\3\\ in the STANS margin calculation process.\\4\\ When OCC began including common stock and ETFs in...

Existential Threat or Dissociative Response? Examining Defensive Avoidance of Point-of-Care Testing Devices Through a Terror Management Theory Framework.

PubMed

Dunne, Simon; Gallagher, Pamela; Matthews, Anne

2015-01-01

Using a terror management theory framework, this study investigated if providing mortality reminders or self-esteem threats would lead participants to exhibit avoidant responses toward a point-of-care testing device for cardiovascular disease risk and if the nature of the device served to diminish the existential threat of cardiovascular disease. One hundred and twelve participants aged 40-55 years completed an experimental questionnaire. Findings indicated that participants were not existentially threatened by established terror management methodologies, potentially because of cross-cultural variability toward such methodologies. Highly positive appraisals of the device also suggest that similar technologies may beneficially affect the uptake of screening behaviors.

[Risk Management: concepts and chances for public health].

PubMed

Palm, Stefan; Cardeneo, Margareta; Halber, Marco; Schrappe, Matthias

2002-01-15

Errors are a common problem in medicine and occur as a result of a complex process involving many contributing factors. Medical errors significantly reduce the safety margin for the patient and contribute additional costs in health care delivery. In most cases adverse events cannot be attributed to a single underlying cause. Therefore an effective risk management strategy must follow a system approach, which is based on counting and analysis of near misses. The development of defenses against the undesired effects of errors should be the main focus rather than asking the question "Who blundered?". Analysis of near misses (which in this context can be compared to indicators) offers several methodological advantages as compared to the analysis of errors and adverse events. Risk management is an integral element of quality management.

Quality, risk management and patient safety: the challenge of effective integration.

PubMed

França, Margarida

2008-01-01

Nowadays we observe the development of three waves of intervention and change within healthcare services: quality management, risk management and patient safety. The Patient Safety movement has been launched at international level as a consequence of the Institute of Medicine's report--To Err is Human, and today patient safety constitutes one basic dimension of health quality subjected to the direct intervention of supranational entities (WHO, EU) and Member States' Governments. The objective of this paper is to raise awareness about the value of quality improvement (QI) methodologies and tools to sustainable healthcare quality outcomes.

[Biosafety provision on handling pathogenic biological agents on the concept of biorisk assessment and management].

PubMed

Dobrokhotskiĭ, O N; Kolombet, L V

2010-01-01

The paper shows it urgent to realize the concept of biological risk assessment and management on handling pathogenic biological agents (PBA). It gives a number of objective reasons that impede development of a methodology to assess laboratory biological risks. A concept of continuous improvement (a process approach) is proposed for use as a biorisk management tool for biosafety assurance when handling PBA. It is demonstrated that development of international cooperation urgently requires that national concepts and standards be harmonized with international regulatory documents on biosafety assurance on handling PBA.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Reciprocal Benefits, Legacy and Risk: Applying Ellinger and Bostrom's Model of Line Manager Role Identity as Facilitators of Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Paul; Evans, Peter

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the beliefs held by managers about their roles as facilitators of learning with their employees in a public utilities organisation. Design/methodology/approach: The research was based on Ellinger and Bostrom's (2002) study on managers' beliefs on their role as facilitators of learning in…

Bow-tie diagrams for risk management in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Culwick, M D; Merry, A F; Clarke, D M; Taraporewalla, K J; Gibbs, N M

2016-11-01

Bow-tie analysis is a risk analysis and management tool that has been readily adopted into routine practice in many high reliability industries such as engineering, aviation and emergency services. However, it has received little exposure so far in healthcare. Nevertheless, its simplicity, versatility, and pictorial display may have benefits for the analysis of a range of healthcare risks, including complex and multiple risks and their interactions. Bow-tie diagrams are a combination of a fault tree and an event tree, which when combined take the shape of a bow tie. Central to bow-tie methodology is the concept of an undesired or 'Top Event', which occurs if a hazard progresses past all prevention controls. Top Events may also occasionally occur idiosyncratically. Irrespective of the cause of a Top Event, mitigation and recovery controls may influence the outcome. Hence the relationship of hazard to outcome can be viewed in one diagram along with possible causal sequences or accident trajectories. Potential uses for bow-tie diagrams in anaesthesia risk management include improved understanding of anaesthesia hazards and risks, pre-emptive identification of absent or inadequate hazard controls, investigation of clinical incidents, teaching anaesthesia risk management, and demonstrating risk management strategies to third parties when required.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process. In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be incorporated into a flood analysis process, its application to some middle italy river basins is presented. The methodology assessment is performed by comparing different scenarios and showing that the optimal decision stems from a feasibility evaluation.

Time-Varying, Multi-Scale Adaptive System Reliability Analysis of Lifeline Infrastructure Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Kurtz, Nolan Scot

2014-09-01

The majority of current societal and economic needs world-wide are met by the existing networked, civil infrastructure. Because the cost of managing such infrastructure is high and increases with time, risk-informed decision making is essential for those with management responsibilities for these systems. To address such concerns, a methodology that accounts for new information, deterioration, component models, component importance, group importance, network reliability, hierarchical structure organization, and efficiency concerns has been developed. This methodology analyzes the use of new information through the lens of adaptive Importance Sampling for structural reliability problems. Deterioration, multi-scale bridge models, and time-variant component importance aremore » investigated for a specific network. Furthermore, both bridge and pipeline networks are studied for group and component importance, as well as for hierarchical structures in the context of specific networks. Efficiency is the primary driver throughout this study. With this risk-informed approach, those responsible for management can address deteriorating infrastructure networks in an organized manner.« less

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Adaptation of EVIAVE methodology for monitoring and follow-up when evaluating the environmental impact of landfills

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arrieta, Gabriela, E-mail: tonina1903@hotmail.com; Requena, Ignacio, E-mail: requena@decsai.ugr.es; Toro, Javier, E-mail: jjtoroca@unal.edu.co

Treatment and final disposal of Municipal Solid Waste can have a significant role in the generation of negative environmental impacts. As a prevention strategy, such activities are subjected to the process of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Still, the follow-up of Environmental Management Plans or mitigation measures is limited, for one due to a lack of methodological approaches. In searching for possibilities, the University of Granada (Spain) developed a diagnostic methodology named EVIAVE, which allows one to quantify, by means of indexes, the environmental impact of landfills in view of their location and the conditions of exploitation. EVIAVE is applicable withinmore » the legal framework of the European Union and can be adapted to the environmental and legal conditions of other countries. This study entails its adaptation in Colombia, for the follow-up and control of the EIA process for landfills. Modifications involved inclusion of the environmental elements flora and fauna, and the evaluation of the environmental descriptors in agreement with the concept of vulnerability. The application of the modified EVIAVE in Colombian landfills allowed us to identify the elements affected by the operating conditions and maintenance. It may be concluded that this methodology is viable and effective for the follow-up and environmental control of EIA processes for landfills, and to analyze the associated risks, as it takes into account related environmental threats and vulnerabilities. - Highlights: • A modified methodology is used to monitor and follow-up environmental impacts in landfills. • The improved methodology includes the Vulnerability of Flora and Fauna to evaluate environmental impact of landfills. • The methodology serves to identify and evaluate the sources of risk generated in the construction and siting of landfills. • Environmental vulnerability indicators improve effectiveness of the control and follow-up phases of landfill management. • The follow-up of environmental management plans may help diminish the implementation gap in Environmental Impact Assessment.« less

PDA survey of quality risk management practices in the pharmaceutical, devices, & biotechnology industries.

PubMed

Ahmed, Ruhi; Baseman, Harold; Ferreira, Jorge; Genova, Thomas; Harclerode, William; Hartman, Jeffery; Kim, Samuel; Londeree, Nanette; Long, Michael; Miele, William; Ramjit, Timothy; Raschiatore, Marlene; Tomonto, Charles

2008-01-01

In July 2006 the Parenteral Drug Association's Risk Management Task Force for Aseptic Processes, conducted an electronic survey of PDA members to determine current industry practices regarding implementation of Quality Risk Management in their organizations. This electronic survey was open and publicly available via the PDA website and targeted professionals in our industry who are involved in initiating, implementing, or reviewing risk management programs or decisions in their organizations. One hundred twenty-nine members participated and their demographics are presented in the sidebar "Correspondents Profile". Among the major findings are: *The "Aseptic Processing/Filling" operation is the functional area identified as having the greatest need for risk assessment and quality risk management. *The most widely used methodology in industry to identify risk is Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). This tool was most widely applied in assessing change control and for adverse event, complaint, or failure investigations. *Despite the fact that personnel training was identified as the strategy most used for controlling/minimizing risk, the largest contributors to sterility failure in operations are still "Personnel". *Most companies still rely on "Manufacturing Controls" to mitigate risk and deemed the utilization of Process Analytical Technology (PAT) least important in this aspect. *A majority of correspondents verified that they did not periodically assess their risk management programs. *A majority of the correspondents desired to see case studies or examples of risk analysis implementation (as applicable to aseptic processing) in future PDA technical reports on risk management.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

A methodology to assess the economic impact of power storage technologies.

PubMed

El-Ghandour, Laila; Johnson, Timothy C

2017-08-13

We present a methodology for assessing the economic impact of power storage technologies. The methodology is founded on classical approaches to the optimal stopping of stochastic processes but involves an innovation that circumvents the need to, ex ante , identify the form of a driving process and works directly on observed data, avoiding model risks. Power storage is regarded as a complement to the intermittent output of renewable energy generators and is therefore important in contributing to the reduction of carbon-intensive power generation. Our aim is to present a methodology suitable for use by policy makers that is simple to maintain, adaptable to different technologies and easy to interpret. The methodology has benefits over current techniques and is able to value, by identifying a viable optimal operational strategy, a conceived storage facility based on compressed air technology operating in the UK.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Cause-and-effect analysis of risk management files to assess patient care in the emergency department.

PubMed

White, Andrew A; Wright, Seth W; Blanco, Roberto; Lemonds, Brent; Sisco, Janice; Bledsoe, Sandy; Irwin, Cindy; Isenhour, Jennifer; Pichert, James W

2004-10-01

Identifying the etiologies of adverse outcomes is an important first step in improving patient safety and reducing malpractice risks. However, relatively little is known about the causes of emergency department-related adverse outcomes. The objective was to describe a method for identification of common causes of adverse outcomes in an emergency department. This methodology potentially can suggest ways to improve care and might provide a model for identification of factors associated with adverse outcomes. This was a retrospective analysis of 74 consecutive files opened by a malpractice insurer between 1995 and 2000. Each risk-management file was analyzed to identify potential causes of adverse outcomes. The main outcomes were rater-assigned codes for alleged problems with care (e.g., failures of communication or problems related to diagnosis). About 50% of cases were related to injuries or abdominal complaints. A contributing cause was found in 92% of cases, and most had more than one contributing cause. The most frequent contributing categories included failure to diagnose (45%), supervision problems (31%), communication problems (30%), patient behavior (24%), administrative problems (20%), and documentation (20%). Specific relating factors within these categories, such as lack of timely resident supervision and failure to follow policies and procedures, were identified. This project documented that an aggregate analysis of risk-management files has the potential to identify shared causes related to real or perceived adverse outcomes. Several potentially correctable systems problems were identified using this methodology. These simple, descriptive management tools may be useful in identifying issues for problem solving and can be easily learned by physicians and managers.

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management.

PubMed

Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Naito, Wataru; Tanaka, Yoshinari; Kamo, Masashi

2013-11-01

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A description of the methodology used in an overview of reviews to evaluate evidence on the treatment, harms, diagnosis/classification, prognosis and outcomes used in the management of neck pain.

PubMed

Santaguida, P Lina; Keshavarz, Homa; Carlesso, Lisa C; Lomotan, Margaret; Gross, Anita; Macdermid, Joy C; Walton, David M

2013-01-01

Neck Pain (NP) is a common musculoskeletal disorder and the literature provides conflicting evidence about its management. To describe the methodology used to conduct an overview of reviews (OvR) and to characterize the distribution and risk of bias profiles across the evidence for all areas of NP management. Standard systematic review (SR) methodology was employed. MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, ILC, Cochrane CENTRAL, and LILACS were searched from 2000 to March 2012; Narrative and SR and clinical practice guidelines (CPG) evaluating the efficacy of treatment (benefits and harms), diagnosis/classification, prognosis, and outcomes were eligible. For treatment, articles were limited to SRs from 2005 forward. Risk of bias of SR was assessed with the AMSTAR; the AGREE II was used to critically appraise the CPGs. From 2476 articles, 508 were eligible for full text screening. A total of 341 articles were included. Treatment (n=117) had the greatest yield. Other clinical areas had less literature (diagnosis=54, prognosis=16, outcomes=27, harms=16). There were no SR for classification and narrative reviews were problematic for this topic. There was great overlap across different databases within each clinical area except for those for outcome measures. Risk of bias assessment using the AMSTAR of eligible SRs showed a similar trend across different clinical areas. A summary of methods used to review the literature in five clinical areas of NP management have been described. The challenges of selecting and synthesizing eligible articles in an OvR required customized solutions across different areas of clinical focus.

Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran.

PubMed

Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

2016-01-01

In recent years, hospitals in Iran - similar to those in other countries - have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts' opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Information security risk management is not followed by Iran's hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran's Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran.

SeCom - Serious Community 2.0 prevent flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komma, Juergen; Breuer, Roman; Sewilam, Hani; Concia, Francesca; Aliprandi, Bruno; Siegmund, Sabine; Goossens, Jannis

2013-04-01

There is a significant need for raising the awareness and building the capacity of water professionals in different water sectors cross Europe. There is also a need for qualified graduates to implement the EU Flood Risk Directive (FRD). The main aim of this work is to prepare and build the capacity of both groups in flood risk management through identifying synergies, sharing knowledge, and strengthen partnerships between universities and different stakeholders(mainly water professionals). The specific objectives are to develop; a) Development of a dynamic and active tool that allows all target-groups/users to assess their knowledge about flood risk management. b) Development of an innovative, active and problem-based learning methodology for flood risk education and training. c)Development of flood related Vocational Education & Training (VET) modules for water professionals (involving the students to gain practical experience). This will include some modules for undergraduate students on flood risk management and protection.

Application of quantitative microbial risk assessments for estimation of risk management metrics: Clostridium perfringens in ready-to-eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products as an example.

PubMed

Crouch, Edmund A; Labarre, David; Golden, Neal J; Kause, Janell R; Dearfield, Kerry L

2009-10-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service is exploring quantitative risk assessment methodologies to incorporate the use of the Codex Alimentarius' newly adopted risk management metrics (e.g., food safety objectives and performance objectives). It is suggested that use of these metrics would more closely tie the results of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to public health outcomes. By estimating the food safety objective (the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption) and the performance objective (the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at a specified step in the food chain before the time of consumption), risk managers will have a better understanding of the appropriate level of protection (ALOP) from microbial hazards for public health protection. We here demonstrate a general methodology that allows identification of an ALOP and evaluation of corresponding metrics at appropriate points in the food chain. It requires a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment, the example used being the Monte Carlo QMRA for Clostridium perfringens in ready-to eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products, with minor modifications to evaluate and abstract required measures. For demonstration purposes, the QMRA model was applied specifically to hot dogs produced and consumed in the United States. Evaluation of the cumulative uncertainty distribution for illness rate allows a specification of an ALOP that, with defined confidence, corresponds to current industry practices.

A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabibzadeh, Maryam

According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e.g. fracking. In addition, this methodology can be applied for the analysis of any high-risk operations, in not only the oil and gas industry but also in other industries such as nuclear power plants, aviation industry, and transportation sector.

A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

2007-03-01

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

2015-02-01

Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

Using standardized patients to teach disease management skills to preclinical students: a pilot project.

PubMed

Brown, Amanda; Anderson, Delia; Szerlip, Harold M

2003-01-01

Physician adherence to practice guidelines has been poor. Exposure to such guidelines is not a routine part of medical school curricula. This study was designed to determine whether standardized patients could be used to teach preclinical students the skills to manage a patient with newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus. Students were assigned a standardized patient with hyperglycemia. The students were given guidelines on the management of diabetes and told to manage the patient appropriately. Patients' charts were reviewed to determine if all cardiovascular risks were managed appropriately. Students successfully managed all cardiovascular risks according to published guidelines. Participants overwhelmingly believed this methodology was a valuable way to teach disease management. Second-year students can use practice guidelines to successfully manage patients with diabetes. The students' performance exceeded the standards of care found in the published literature. This problem-based approach may be an ideal way to teach disease management.

Application of Risk-Based Inspection method for gas compressor station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meng; Liang, Wei; Qiu, Zeyang; Lin, Yang

2017-05-01

According to the complex process and lots of equipment, there are risks in gas compressor station. At present, research on integrity management of gas compressor station is insufficient. In this paper, the basic principle of Risk Based Inspection (RBI) and the RBI methodology are studied; the process of RBI in the gas compressor station is developed. The corrosion loop and logistics loop of the gas compressor station are determined through the study of corrosion mechanism and process of the gas compressor station. The probability of failure is calculated by using the modified coefficient, and the consequence of failure is calculated by the quantitative method. In particular, we addressed the application of a RBI methodology in a gas compressor station. The risk ranking is helpful to find the best preventive plan for inspection in the case study.

Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

PubMed

Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

2014-05-01

Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harmonised pesticide risk trend indicator for food (HAPERITIF): The methodological approach.

PubMed

Calliera, Maura; Finizio, Antonio; Azimonti, Giovanna; Benfenati, Emilio; Trevisan, Marco

2006-12-01

To provide a harmonised European approach for pesticide risk indicators, the Sixth EU Framework Programme recently financed the HAIR (HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk) project. This paper illustrates the methodology underlying a new indicator-HAPERITIF (HArmonised PEsticide RIsk Trend Indicator for Food), developed in HAIR, for tracking acute and chronic pesticide risk trends for consumers. The acute indicator, HAPERITIF(ac), is based on the ratio between an estimated short-term intake (ESTI), calculated as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the acute reference dose (ARfD); the chronic indicator HAPERITIF(chr) is based on the ratio between an estimated daily intake (EDI) and the admissible daily intake (ADI). HAPERITIF can be applied at different levels of aggregation. Each level gives information for proper risk management of pesticides to reduce the risk associated with food consumption. An example of application using realistic scenarios of pesticide treatments on a potato crop in central-northern Italy is reported to illustrate the different steps of HAPERITIF. Copyright 2006 Society of Chemical Industry.

Hazard Interactions and Interaction Networks (Cascades) within Multi-Hazard Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-04-01

Here we combine research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between 'multi-layer single hazard' approaches and 'multi-hazard' approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. We proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework, through the following steps: (i) describe and define three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment; (ii) outline three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance); and (iii) assess the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case-study examples (based on literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential, and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

[The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

PubMed

Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

2014-01-01

The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

Meeting Report: Development of Environmental Health Indicators in Brazil and Other Countries in the Americas

PubMed Central

Carneiro, Fernando F.; Oliveira, Mara Lúcia C.; Netto, Guilherme F.; Galvão, Luis A.C.; Cancio, Jacira A.; Bonini, Estela M.; Corvalan, Carlos F.

2006-01-01

This report summarizes the Brazilian experience on the design and implementation of environmental health, with contributions from Argentina, Canada, and Cuba, presented at the International Symposium on the Development of Indicators for Environmental Health Integrated Management, held in Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, on 17–18 June 2004. The methodology for the development of environmental health indicators has been used as a reference in the implementation of environmental health surveillance in Brazil. This methodology has provided tools and processes to facilitate the understanding and to measure the determinants of risks to environmental health, to help decision makers control those risks. PMID:16966096

[Customer and patient satisfaction. An appropriate management tool in hospitals?].

PubMed

Pawils, S; Trojan, A; Nickel, S; Bleich, C

2012-09-01

Recently, the concept of patient satisfaction has been established as an essential part of the quality management of hospitals. Despite the concept's lack of theoretical and methodological foundations, patient surveys on subjective hospital experiences contribute immensely to the improvement of hospitals. What needs to be considered critically in this context is the concept of customer satisfaction for patients, the theoretical integration of empirical results, the reduction of false satisfaction indications and the application of risk-adjusted versus naïve benchmarking of data. This paper aims to contribute to the theoretical discussion of the topic and to build a basis for planning methodologically sound patient surveys.

Estimating erosion risks associated with logging and forest roads in northwestern California

Treesearch

Raymond M. Rice; Jack Lewis

1991-01-01

Abstract - Erosion resulting from logging and road building has long been a concern to forest managers and the general public. An objective methodology was developed to estimate erosion risk on forest roads and in harvest areas on private land in northwestern California. It was based on 260 plots sampled from the area harvested under 415 Timber Harvest Plans...

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

General RMP Guidance - Chapter 4: Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter provides basic compliance information, not modeling methodologies, for people who plan to do their own air dispersion modeling. OCA is a required part of the risk management program, and involves worst-case and alternative release scenarios.

GREEN CHEMICAL SYNTHESIS THROUGH CATALYSIS AND ALTERNATE REACTION CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Green chemical synthesis through catalysis and alternate reaction conditions

Encompassing green chemistry techniques and methodologies, we have initiated several projects at the National Risk Management Research laboratory that focus on the design and development of chemic...

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture “what is known” and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. The following specific aims are formulated to achieve the study objective: (1) to propose a system of systems (SoS) architecture that builds a network management among the different entities in the large SEE system to track the flow of ENMs emission, fate and transport from the source to the receptor; (2) to establish a staged approach for knowledge synthesis methodo

Framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food industry.

PubMed

Baker, Robert C; Ford, Randall M; Helander, Mary E; Marecki, Janusz; Natarajan, Ramesh; Ray, Bonnie

2014-12-01

We propose a methodological framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food processing industry. Mycotoxin contamination is a well-known threat to public health that has economic significance for the food processing industry; it is imperative to address mycotoxin risks holistically, at all points in the procurement, processing, and distribution pipeline, by tracking the relevant data, adopting best practices, and providing suitable adaptive controls. The proposed framework includes (i) an information and data repository, (ii) a collaborative infrastructure with analysis and simulation tools, (iii) standardized testing and acceptance sampling procedures, and (iv) processes that link the risk assessments and testing results to the sourcing, production, and product release steps. The implementation of suitable acceptance sampling protocols for mycotoxin testing is considered in some detail.

Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran

PubMed Central

Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

2016-01-01

Background In recent years, hospitals in Iran – similar to those in other countries – have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. Materials and methods This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts’ opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Results Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Conclusion Information security risk management is not followed by Iran’s hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran’s Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran. PMID:27313481

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Integrity management of offshore structures and its implication on computation of structural action effects and resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moan, T.

2017-12-01

An overview of integrity management of offshore structures, with emphasis on the oil and gas energy sector, is given. Based on relevant accident experiences and means to control the associated risks, accidents are categorized from a technical-physical as well as human and organizational point of view. Structural risk relates to extreme actions as well as structural degradation. Risk mitigation measures, including adequate design criteria, inspection, repair and maintenance as well as quality assurance and control of engineering processes, are briefly outlined. The current status of risk and reliability methodology to aid decisions in the integrity management is briefly reviewed. Finally, the need to balance the uncertainties in data, methods and computational efforts and the cautious use and quality assurance and control in applying high fidelity methods to avoid human errors, is emphasized, and with a plea to develop both high fidelity as well as efficient, simplified methods for design.

Causes and remedies for the dominant risk factors in Enterprise System implementation projects: the consultants' perspective.

PubMed

Lech, Przemysław

2016-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate the causes of the dominant risk factors, affecting Enterprise System implementation projects and propose remedies for those risk factors from the perspective of implementation consultants. The study used a qualitative research strategy, based on e-mail interviews, semi-structured personal interviews with consultants and participant observation during implementation projects. The main contribution of this paper is that it offers viable indications of how to mitigate the dominant risk factors. These indications were grouped into the following categories: stable project scope, smooth communication supported by the project management, dedicated, competent and decision-making client team, competent and engaged consultant project manager, schedule and budget consistent with the project scope, use of methodology and procedures, enforced and enabled by the project managers, competent and dedicated consultants. A detailed description is provided for each category.

Risk and Disaster Management: From Planning and Expertise to Smart, Intelligent, and Adaptive Systems.

PubMed

Benis, Arriel; Notea, Amos; Barkan, Refael

2018-01-01

"Disaster" means some surprising and misfortunate event. Its definition is broad and relates to complex environments. Medical Informatics approaches, methodologies and systems are used as a part of Disaster and Emergency Management systems. At the Holon Institute of Technology - HIT, Israel, in 2016 a National R&D Center: AFRAN was established to study the disaster's reduction aspects. The Center's designation is to investigate and produce new approaches, methodologies and to offer recommendations in the fields of disaster mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery and to disseminate disaster's knowledge. Adjoint to the Center a "Smart, Intelligent, and Adaptive Systems" laboratory (SIAS) was established with the goal to study the applications of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Risk and Disaster Management (RDM). In this paper, we are redefining the concept of Disaster, pointing-out how ICT, AI, in the Big Data era, are central players in the RDM game. In addition we show the merit of the Center and lab combination to the benefit of the performed research projects.

Short Duration Emergency Incidents Managed as Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nixon, Thomas J.

Emergency incidents have historically been managed by experience and some directional principles usually found in SOPs/SOGs or other pre-incident planning documents. The use of experience has the risk of bias influencing the decisions being made in truly life or death situations. Responders of disasters, long duration emergency incidents, are often equipped with a framework adapted to the project management lifecycle to assure the project priorities are adequately addressed. The disaster framework provides for savings from risk, loss, waste. This research is demonstrating the ability and reasoning to develop a framework to address short duration emergency incidents and expand the events that can be managed as a project. The research of the literature found that a framework can be applied to the project management lifecycle and the priorities of a short duration emergency incident can be managed as a project. The limitations of not having the ability to conduct empirical testing and the risks of not developing a formal implementation plan are discussed. Short duration emergency incidents are found to be capable of being managed as projects and will benefit from the effectiveness of project management methodologies.

Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to infilling quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments.

PubMed

Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Bazin, Christine; Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude; Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain; Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert

2012-08-01

The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the "substances" approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the "matrix" approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, …). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments "1" and "2" presented a low risk for the peripheral aquatic ecosystems while sediment "3" presented a high risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementing the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) in Austria: Flood Risk Management Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhold, Clemens

2013-04-01

he Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (EFD) aims at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in the Community. This task is to be achieved based on three process steps (1) preliminary flood risk assessment (finalised by the end of 2011), (2) flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (due 2013) and (3) flood risk management plans (due 2015). Currently, an interdisciplinary national working group is defining the methodological framework for flood risk management plans in Austria supported by a constant exchange with international bodies and experts. Referring to the EFD the components of the flood risk management plan are (excerpt): 1. conclusions of the preliminary flood risk assessment 2. flood hazard maps and flood risk maps and the conclusions that can be drawn from those maps 3. a description of the appropriate objectives of flood risk management 4. a summary of measures and their prioritisation aiming to achieve the appropriate objectives of flood risk management The poster refers to some of the major challenges in this process, such as the legal provisions, coordination of administrative units, definition of public relations, etc. The implementation of the EFD requires the harmonisation of legal instruments of various disciplines (e.g. water management, spatial planning, civil protection) enabling a coordinated - and ideally binding - practice of flood risk management. This process is highly influenced by the administrative organisation in Austria - federal, provincial and municipality level. The Austrian approach meets this organisational framework by structuring the development of the flood risk management plan into 3 time-steps: (a) federal blueprint, (b) provincial editing and (c) federal finishing as well as reporting to the European Commission. Each time-step addresses different administrative levels and spatial scales accompanied by the active involvement of interested parties.

Optimization of protocol design: a path to efficient, lower cost clinical trial execution

PubMed Central

Malikova, Marina A

2016-01-01

Managing clinical trials requires strategic planning and efficient execution. In order to achieve a timely delivery of important clinical trials’ outcomes, it is useful to establish standardized trial management guidelines and develop robust scoring methodology for evaluation of study protocol complexity. This review will explore the challenges clinical teams face in developing protocols to ensure that the right patients are enrolled and the right data are collected to demonstrate that a drug is safe and efficacious, while managing study costs and study complexity based on proposed comprehensive scoring model. Key factors to consider when developing protocols and techniques to minimize complexity will be discussed. A methodology to identify processes at planning phase, approaches to increase fiscal return and mitigate fiscal compliance risk for clinical trials will be addressed. PMID:28031939

Methodology Development for Passive Component Reliability Modeling in a Multi-Physics Simulation Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, Richard; Catalyurek, Umit

Reduction in safety margin can be expected as passive structures and components undergo degradation with time. Limitations in the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology constrain its value as an effective tool to address the impact of aging effects on risk and for quantifying the impact of aging management strategies in maintaining safety margins. A methodology has been developed to address multiple aging mechanisms involving large numbers of components (with possibly statistically dependent failures) within the PRA framework in a computationally feasible manner when the sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation environment, suchmore » as the New Generation System Code (NGSC) concept. Both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties can be accounted for within the same phenomenological framework and maintenance can be accounted for in a coherent fashion. The framework accommodates the prospective impacts of various intervention strategies such as testing, maintenance, and refurbishment. The methodology is illustrated with several examples.« less

GREENSCOPE: A Method for Modeling Chemical Process Sustainability

EPA Science Inventory

Current work within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Risk Management Research Laboratory is focused on the development of a method for modeling chemical process sustainability. The GREENSCOPE methodology, defined for the four bases of Environment, Economics, Ef...

Risk-based asset management methodology for highway infrastructure systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

Maintaining the infrastructure of roads, highways, and bridges is paramount to ensuring that these assets will remain safe and reliable in the future. If maintenance costs remain the same or continue to escalate, and additional funding is not made av...

Estimation of risk management effects on revenue and purchased feed costs on US dairy farms.

PubMed

Hadrich, Joleen C; Johnson, Kamina K

2015-09-01

Variations in milk and feed prices directly affect dairy farm risk management decisions. This research used data from the 2010 US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Resource Management Surveys phase III dairy survey to examine how risk management tools affected revenues and expenses across US dairy farms. The survey was sent to 26 states and collected information on costs and returns to individual dairy farms. This research used the information from milk sales, crops sales, feed expenses, and farm and operator characteristics, as well as the use of risk management tools. Matching methodology was used to evaluate the effect of 5 independent risk management tools on revenues and expenses: selling milk to a cooperative, using a commodity contract to sell grain, feeding homegrown forage at a basic and intensive level, and use of a nutritionist. Results showed that dairy farms located in the Midwest and East benefit from selling milk to a cooperative and using commodity contracts to sell grain. Across the United States, using a nutritionist increased total feed costs, whereas a feeding program that included more than 65% homegrown forages decreased total feed costs. Results point to benefits from educational programming on risk management tools that are region specific rather than a broad generalization to all US dairy farmers. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic assessment of phenophase-wise agricultural drought risk under different sowing windows: a case study with rainfed soybean.

PubMed

Dhakar, Rajkumar; Sarath Chandran, M A; Nagar, Shivani; Visha Kumari, V

2017-11-23

A new methodology for crop-growth stage-specific assessment of agricultural drought risk under a variable sowing window is proposed for the soybean crop. It encompasses three drought indices, which include Crop-Specific Drought Index (CSDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The unique features of crop-growth stage-specific nature and spatial and multi-scalar coverage provide a comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought risk. This study was conducted in 10 major soybean-growing districts of Madhya Pradesh state of India. These areas contribute about 60% of the total soybean production for the country. The phenophase most vulnerable to agricultural drought was identified (germination and flowering in our case) for each district across four sowing windows. The agricultural drought risk was quantified at various severity levels (moderate, severe, and very severe) for each growth stage and sowing window. Validation of the proposed new methodology also yielded results with a high correlation coefficient between percent probability of agricultural drought risk and yield risk (r = 0.92). Assessment by proximity matrix yielded a similar statistic. Expectations for the proposed methodology are better mitigation-oriented management and improved crop contingency plans for planners and decision makers.

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

Wildlife strike risk assessment in several Italian airports: lessons from BRI and a new methodology implementation.

PubMed

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Lovato, Tomas; Andreon, Adriano; Torricelli, Patrizia; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Corsa, Cosimo; Georgalas, Vyron

2011-01-01

The presence of wildlife in airport areas poses substantial hazards to aviation. Wildlife aircraft collisions (hereafter wildlife strikes) cause losses in terms of human lives and direct monetary losses for the aviation industry. In recent years, wildlife strikes have increased in parallel with air traffic increase and species habituation to anthropic areas. In this paper, we used an ecological approach to wildlife strike risk assessment to eight Italian international airports. The main achievement is a site-specific analysis that avoids flattening wildlife strike events on a large scale while maintaining comparable airport risk assessments. This second version of the Birdstrike Risk Index (BRI2) is a sensitive tool that provides different time scale results allowing appropriate management planning. The methodology applied has been developed in accordance with the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, which recognizes it as a national standard implemented in the advisory circular ENAC APT-01B.

Wildlife Strike Risk Assessment in Several Italian Airports: Lessons from BRI and a New Methodology Implementation

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Lovato, Tomas; Andreon, Adriano; Torricelli, Patrizia; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Corsa, Cosimo; Georgalas, Vyron

2011-01-01

The presence of wildlife in airport areas poses substantial hazards to aviation. Wildlife aircraft collisions (hereafter wildlife strikes) cause losses in terms of human lives and direct monetary losses for the aviation industry. In recent years, wildlife strikes have increased in parallel with air traffic increase and species habituation to anthropic areas. In this paper, we used an ecological approach to wildlife strike risk assessment to eight Italian international airports. The main achievement is a site-specific analysis that avoids flattening wildlife strike events on a large scale while maintaining comparable airport risk assessments. This second version of the Birdstrike Risk Index (BRI2) is a sensitive tool that provides different time scale results allowing appropriate management planning. The methodology applied has been developed in accordance with the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, which recognizes it as a national standard implemented in the advisory circular ENAC APT-01B. PMID:22194950

Opportunities for Improved Management Efficiency of the Head Start Program: Performance Evaluation and High Risk Determination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gall, Mary Sheila

This report provides results of a review of the methodology used by the Office of Human Development Services (HDS) to measure Head Start performance and to control high risk Head Start agencies. The review was performed at HDS headquarters and regional locations nationwide. The review was based on a sample of 200 Head Start agencies and focused on…

Monitoring the effects of extreme climate disturbances on forest health in the northeast U.S.

Treesearch

Allan N.D. Auclair; Warren E. Heilman; Peter Busalacchi

2002-01-01

No methodology has been developed to date to predict when a forest population is at risk to specific climate and air pollution stressors. Yet, this information is important to natural resource managers who need frequent, updated assessments of forest health upon which to base management decisions and respond to public concerns on forest health. The USDA Forest Service...

Purpose-driven public sector reform: the need for within-government capacity build for the management of slope stability in communities in the Caribbean.

PubMed

Anderson, Malcolm; Holcombe, Liz

2006-01-01

This article stresses the importance of within-government capacity build as the optimal approach to minimizing landslide risk to the most vulnerable communities in the developing world. Landslide risk is an integrated issue that demands strong managerial leadership and multidisciplinary inclusion to develop structures that deliver sustainable improvements in the reduction of risk. The tension between projects demanding international technical and financial intervention and those capable of "within-country" solutions are examined. More particularly, the challenges of developing a management methodology capable of energizing inter-ministry collaboration to achieve community-level action is examined in the context of a recently established program of slope stability management in St. Lucia. The program, Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC), is shown to have successfully fostered not only extensive technical collaboration within government but also to have energized local communities in the shared mission of capacity build through their direct involvement in the management process.

Purpose-Driven Public Sector Reform: The Need for Within-Government Capacity Build for the Management of Slope Stability in Communities in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Malcolm; Holcombe, Liz

2006-01-01

This article stresses the importance of within-government capacity build as the optimal approach to minimizing landslide risk to the most vulnerable communities in the developing world. Landslide risk is an integrated issue that demands strong managerial leadership and multidisciplinary inclusion to develop structures that deliver sustainable improvements in the reduction of risk. The tension between projects demanding international technical and financial intervention and those capable of “within-country” solutions are examined. More particularly, the challenges of developing a management methodology capable of energizing inter-ministry collaboration to achieve community-level action is examined in the context of a recently established program of slope stability management in St. Lucia. The program, Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC), is shown to have successfully fostered not only extensive technical collaboration within government but also to have energized local communities in the shared mission of capacity build through their direct involvement in the management process.

Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, E.

2015-12-01

Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2015-04-01

Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the season. A methodology for identifying agro-ecosystem vulnerability was developed using spatially explicit information and was tested for arable crop production in Belgium. The different components of vulnerability for a region include spatial information on meteorology, soil available water content, soil erosion, the degree of waterlogging, crop share and the diversity of potato varieties. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem is also determined by risk management. The types of agricultural risk and their relative importance differ across sectors and farm types. Risk types are further distinguished according to production, market, institutional, financial and liability risks. Strategies are often combined in the risk management strategy of a farmer and include reduction and prevention, mitigation, coping and impact reduction. Based on an extensive literature review, a portfolio of potential strategies was identified at farm, market and policy level. Research hypotheses were tested using an on-line questionnaire on knowledge of agricultural risk, measuring the general risk aversion of the farmer and risk management strategies. The "chain of risk" approach adopted as a research methodology allows for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risks related to extreme weather events in Belgium are mainly caused by heat, frost, excess rainfall, drought and storms, and their impact is predominantly felt by arable, horticultural and extensive dairy farmers. Quantification of the risk is evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence, magnitude, frequency and extent of impact on several agro-ecosystems services. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed by integrating different layers of geo-information, while risk management is analysed using questionnaires and economic modelling methods. Future work will concentrate on the further development and testing of the currently developed modelling methodologies. https://merinova.vito.be The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

PubMed

Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

2014-02-15

Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load within one year is also high. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

10 CFR 300.11 - Independent verification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... verifiers, and has been empowered to make decisions relevant to the provision of a verification statement... methods; and (v) Risk assessment and methodologies and materiality analysis procedures outlined by other... Accreditation Board program for Environmental Management System auditors (ANSI-RAB-EMS); Board of Environmental...

10 CFR 300.11 - Independent verification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... verifiers, and has been empowered to make decisions relevant to the provision of a verification statement... methods; and (v) Risk assessment and methodologies and materiality analysis procedures outlined by other... Accreditation Board program for Environmental Management System auditors (ANSI-RAB-EMS); Board of Environmental...

Multimedia Sampling During The Application Of Biosolids On A Land Test Site

EPA Science Inventory

This report documents the approach, methodologies, results, and interpretation of a collaborative research study conducted by the National Risk Management Research Center (NRMRL) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA's) Office of Research and Development (ORD); ...

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

2009-04-01

Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

A multi-scale modelling procedure to quantify hydrological impacts of upland land management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.; Jackson, B.; Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.; Frogbrook, Z.; Solloway, I.; Reynolds, B.

2008-12-01

Recent UK floods have focused attention on the effects of agricultural intensification on flood risk. However, quantification of these effects raises important methodological issues. Catchment-scale data have proved inadequate to support analysis of impacts of land management change, due to climate variability, uncertainty in input and output data, spatial heterogeneity in land use and lack of data to quantify historical changes in management practices. Manipulation experiments to quantify the impacts of land management change have necessarily been limited and small scale, and in the UK mainly focused on the lowlands and arable agriculture. There is a need to develop methods to extrapolate from small scale observations to predict catchment-scale response, and to quantify impacts for upland areas. With assistance from a cooperative of Welsh farmers, a multi-scale experimental programme has been established at Pontbren, in mid-Wales, an area of intensive sheep production. The data have been used to support development of a multi-scale modelling methodology to assess impacts of agricultural intensification and the potential for mitigation of flood risk through land use management. Data are available from replicated experimental plots under different land management treatments, from instrumented field and hillslope sites, including tree shelter belts, and from first and second order catchments. Measurements include climate variables, soil water states and hydraulic properties at multiple depths and locations, tree interception, overland flow and drainflow, groundwater levels, and streamflow from multiple locations. Fine resolution physics-based models have been developed to represent soil and runoff processes, conditioned using experimental data. The detailed models are used to calibrate simpler 'meta- models' to represent individual hydrological elements, which are then combined in a semi-distributed catchment-scale model. The methodology is illustrated using field and catchment-scale simulations to demonstrate the the response of improved and unimproved grassland, and the potential effects of land management interventions, including farm ponds, tree shelter belts and buffer strips. It is concluded that the methodology developed has the potential to represent and quantify catchment-scale effects of upland management; continuing research is extending the work to a wider range of upland environments and land use types, with the aim of providing generic simulation tools that can be used to provide strategic policy guidance.

An Integrated Approach to Identification, Assessment and Management of Watershed-Scale Risk for Sustainable Water Use Through Reuse and Recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, C. K.; Bolster, D.; Gironas, J. A.

2014-12-01

Water resources are essential to development, not only economically but also socially, politically and ecologically. With growing demand and potentially shrinking supply, water scarcity is one of the most pressing socio-ecological problems of the 21st century. Considering implications of global change and the complexity of interrelated systems, uncertain future conditions compound problems associated with water stress, requiring hydrologic models to re-examine traditional water resource planning and management. The Copiapó water basin, located in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile exhibits a complex resource management scenario. With annual average precipitation of only 28 mm, water intensive sectors such as export agriculture, extensive mining, and a growing population have depleted the aquifeŕs reserves to near critical levels. Being that global climate change models predict a decrease in already scarce precipitation, and that growing population and economies demand will likely increase, the real future situation might be even worse than that predicted. A viable option for alleviation of water stress, water reuse and recycling has evolved through technological innovation to feasibly meet hydraulic needs with reclaimed water. For the proper application of these methods for resource management, however, stakeholders must possess tools by which to quantify hydrologic risk, understand its factors of causation, and choose between competing management scenarios and technologies so as to optimize productivity. While previous investigations have addressed similar problems, they often overlook aspects of forecasting uncertainty, proposing solutions that while accurate under specific scenarios, lack robustness to withstand future variations. Using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) platform for hydrologic modeling, this study proposes a methodology, applicable to other stressed watersheds, to quantify inherent risk in water management positions, while considering uncertainties in supply (climate change), demand (market variations), and measurement (risk definition). Applied to the Copaipó case study, this methodology proposes the solution of a 30% demand decrease within the agricultural sector through urban wastewater recycling and increased irrigation efficiency.

Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

2018-06-01

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK.

PubMed

Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J Alastair R; Connell, Richenda K; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

2018-06-13

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMP) with tailored solutions for each basin, evaluating their flood mitigation potential, promoting environmental objectives and increasing the efficiency of the already adopted measures. The FRMP should focus on prevention (and protection), preparedness and response, and these have been the three main risk management phases of a flood crisis that have been assessed when extracting the lessons learnt from past events. Lessons learnt concerning dissemination through the three previously mentioned phases and also related to education initiatives have also been included. A common response to most of the events described in this paper was to upgrade the meteorological and hydrological forecasting systems, making the forecasting lead-time as large as possible. Another common recommendation from the test-beds was the need to implement and accomplish the land use regulations. All the basins also detected that structural measures are necessary to increase the population's protection level, but replacing the traditional safety mentality by a risk culture based on a comprehensive analysis of the flood risk. The four basins studied have also highlighted the importance of collecting information when FF & DF events occur and creating historic databases that will provide extremely useful information in the future.

The use of mental models in chemical risk protection: developing a generic workplace methodology.

PubMed

Cox, Patrick; Niewöhmer, Jörg; Pidgeon, Nick; Gerrard, Simon; Fischhoff, Baruch; Riley, Donna

2003-04-01

We adopted a comparative approach to evaluate and extend a generic methodology to analyze the different sets of beliefs held about chemical hazards in the workplace. Our study mapped existing knowledge structures about the risks associated with the use of perchloroethylene and rosin-based solder flux in differing workplaces. "Influence diagrams" were used to represent beliefs held by chemical experts; "user models" were developed from data elicited from open-ended interviews with the workplace users of the chemicals. The juxtaposition of expert and user understandings of chemical risks enabled us to identify knowledge gaps and misunderstandings and to reinforce appropriate sets of safety beliefs and behavior relevant to chemical risk communications. By designing safety information to be more relevant to the workplace context of users, we believe that employers and employees may gain improved knowledge about chemical hazards in the workplace, such that better chemical risk management, self-protection, and informed decision making develop over time.

Risk management in medical product development process using traditional FMEA and fuzzy linguistic approach: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkire, Milind Shrikant; Rane, Santosh B.; Jadhav, Jagdish Rajaram

2015-12-01

Medical product development (MPD) process is highly multidisciplinary in nature, which increases the complexity and the associated risks. Managing the risks during MPD process is very crucial. The objective of this research is to explore risks during MPD in a dental product manufacturing company and propose a model for risk mitigation during MPD process to minimize failure events. A case study approach is employed. The existing MPD process is mapped with five phases of the customized phase gate process. The activities during each phase of development and risks associated with each activity are identified and categorized based on the source of occurrence. The risks are analyzed using traditional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fuzzy FMEA. The results of two methods when compared show that fuzzy approach avoids the duplication of RPNs and helps more to convert cognition of experts into information to get values of risk factors. The critical, moderate, low level and negligible risks are identified based on criticality; risk treatments and mitigation model are proposed. During initial phases of MPD, the risks are less severe, but as the process progresses the severity of risks goes on increasing. The MPD process should be critically designed and simulated to minimize the number of risk events and their severity. To successfully develop the products/devices within the manufacturing companies, the process risk management is very essential. A systematic approach to manage risks during MPD process will lead to the development of medical products with expected quality and reliability. This is the first research of its kind having focus on MPD process risks and its management. The methodology adopted in this paper will help the developers, managers and researchers to have a competitive edge over the other companies by managing the risks during the development process.

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

PubMed

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

WE-B-BRC-03: Risk in the Context of Medical Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samei, E.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraass, B.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Risk Assessment to Underpin Food Regulatory Decisions: An Example of Public Health Nutritional Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Baines, Janis; Cunningham, Judy; Leemhuis, Christel; Hambridge, Tracy; Mackerras, Dorothy

2011-01-01

The approach used by food regulation agencies to examine the literature and forecast the impact of possible food regulations has many similar features to the approach used in nutritional epidemiological research. We outline the Risk Analysis Framework described by FAO/WHO, in which there is formal progression from identification of the nutrient or food chemical of interest, through to describing its effect on health and then assessing whether there is a risk to the population based on dietary exposure estimates. We then discuss some important considerations for the dietary modeling component of the Framework, including several methodological issues that also exist in research nutritional epidemiology. Finally, we give several case studies that illustrate how the different methodological components are used together to inform decisions about how to manage the regulatory problem. PMID:22254081

Methods and Metrics for Evaluating Environmental Dredging at the Ashtabula River Area of Concern (AOC)

EPA Science Inventory

This report documents the objectives, approach, methodologies, results, and interpretation of a collaborative research study conducted by the National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) and the National Exposure Research laboratory (NERL) of the U.S. Environmental Prote...

Thresholds for Chemically Induced Toxicity: Theories and Evidence

EPA Science Inventory

Regulatory agencies define “science policies” as a means of proceeding with risk assessments and management decisions in the absence of all the data these bodies would like. Policies may include the use of default assumptions, values and methodologies. The U.S. EPA 20...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kapuscinski, A.R.; Hallerman, E.M.

Among the many methodologies encompassing biotechnology in aquaculture, this report addresses: the production of genetically modified aquatic organisms (aquatic GMOs) by gene transfer, chromosome set manipulation, or hybridization or protoplast fusion between species; new health management tools, including DNA-Based diagnostics and recombinant DNA vaccines; Marker-assisted selection; cryopreservation; and stock marking. These methodologies pose a wide range of potential economic benefits for aquaculture by providing improved or new means to affect the mix of necessary material inputs, enhance production efficiency, or improve product quality. Advances in aquaculture through biotechnology could simulate growth of the aquaculture industry to provide a larger proportionmore » of consummer demand, and thereby reduce pressure and natural stocks from over-harvest. Judicious application of gamete cryopreservation and chromosome set manipulations to achieve sterilization could reduce environmental risks of some aquaculture operations. Given the significant losses to disease in many aquaculture enterprises, potential benefits of DNA-based health management tools are very high and appear to pose no major environmental risks or social concerns.« less

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

2013-11-01

Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

Clinical and cost outcomes of multifactorial, cardiovascular risk management interventions in worksites: a comprehensive review and analysis.

PubMed

Pelletier, K R

1997-12-01

This paper is a critical review of the clinical and cost outcome evaluation studies of multifactorial, comprehensive, cardiovascular risk management programs in worksites. A comprehensive international literature search conducted under the auspices of the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute identified 17 articles based on 12 studies that examined the clinical outcomes of multifactorial, comprehensive programs. These articles were identified through MEDLINE, manual searches of recent journals, and through direct inquiries to worksite health promotion researchers. All studies were conducted between 1978 and 1995, with 1978 being the date of the first citation of a methodologically rigorous evaluation. Of the 12 research studies, only 8 utilized the worksite as both the unit of assignment and as the unit of analysis. None of the studies analyzed adequately for cost effectiveness. Given this limitation, this review briefly considers the relevant worksite research that has demonstrated cost outcomes. Worksite-based, multifactorial cardiovascular intervention programs reviewed for this article varied widely in the comprehensiveness, intensity, and duration of both the interventions and evaluations. Results from randomized trials suggest that providing opportunities for individualized, cardiovascular risk reduction counseling for high-risk employees within the context of comprehensive programming may be the critical component of an effective worksite intervention. Despite the many limitations of the current methodologies of the 12 studies, the majority of the research to date indicates the following: (1) favorable clinical and cost outcomes; (2) that more recent and more rigorously designed research tends to support rather than refute earlier and less rigorously designed studies; and (3) that rather than interpreting the methodological flaws and diversity as inherently negative, one may consider it as indicative of a robust phenomena evident in many types of worksites, with diverse employees, differing interventions, and varying degrees of methodological sophistication. Results of these studies reviewed provide both cautious optimism about the effectiveness of these worksite programs and insights regarding the essential components and characteristics of successful programs.

Managing uncertainty about food risks - Consumer use of food labelling.

PubMed

Tonkin, Emma; Coveney, John; Meyer, Samantha B; Wilson, Annabelle M; Webb, Trevor

2016-12-01

General consumer knowledge of and engagement with the production of food has declined resulting in increasing consumer uncertainty about, and sensitivity to, food risks. Emphasis is therefore placed on providing information for consumers to reduce information asymmetry regarding food risks, particularly through food labelling. This study examines the role of food labelling in influencing consumer perceptions of food risks. In-depth, 1-h interviews were conducted with 24 Australian consumers. Participants were recruited based on an a priori defined food safety risk scale, and to achieve a diversity of demographic characteristics. The methodological approach used, adaptive theory, was chosen to enable a constant interweaving of theoretical understandings and empirical data throughout the study. Participants discussed perceiving both traditional (food spoilage/microbial contamination) and modern (social issues, pesticide and 'chemical' contamination) risks as present in the food system. Food labelling was a symbol of the food system having managed traditional risks, and a tool for consumers to personally manage perceived modern risks. However, labelling also raised awareness of modern risks not previously considered. The consumer framing of risk presented demonstrates the need for more meaningful consumer engagement in policy decision making to ensure risk communication and management meet public expectations. This research innovatively identifies food labelling as both a symbol of, and a tool for, the management of perceived risks for consumers. Therefore it is imperative that food system actors ensure the authenticity and trustworthiness of all aspects of food labelling, not only those related to food safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sandia National Laboratories performance assessment methodology for long-term environmental programs : the history of nuclear waste management.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marietta, Melvin Gary; Anderson, D. Richard; Bonano, Evaristo J.

2011-11-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is the world leader in the development of the detailed science underpinning the application of a probabilistic risk assessment methodology, referred to in this report as performance assessment (PA), for (1) understanding and forecasting the long-term behavior of a radioactive waste disposal system, (2) estimating the ability of the disposal system and its various components to isolate the waste, (3) developing regulations, (4) implementing programs to estimate the safety that the system can afford to individuals and to the environment, and (5) demonstrating compliance with the attendant regulatory requirements. This report documents the evolution of themore » SNL PA methodology from inception in the mid-1970s, summarizing major SNL PA applications including: the Subseabed Disposal Project PAs for high-level radioactive waste; the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant PAs for disposal of defense transuranic waste; the Yucca Mountain Project total system PAs for deep geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste; PAs for the Greater Confinement Borehole Disposal boreholes at the Nevada National Security Site; and PA evaluations for disposal of high-level wastes and Department of Energy spent nuclear fuels stored at Idaho National Laboratory. In addition, the report summarizes smaller PA programs for long-term cover systems implemented for the Monticello, Utah, mill-tailings repository; a PA for the SNL Mixed Waste Landfill in support of environmental restoration; PA support for radioactive waste management efforts in Egypt, Iraq, and Taiwan; and, most recently, PAs for analysis of alternative high-level radioactive waste disposal strategies including repositories deep borehole disposal and geologic repositories in shale and granite. Finally, this report summarizes the extension of the PA methodology for radioactive waste disposal toward development of an enhanced PA system for carbon sequestration and storage systems. These efforts have produced a generic PA methodology for the evaluation of waste management systems that has gained wide acceptance within the international community. This report documents how this methodology has been used as an effective management tool to evaluate different disposal designs and sites; inform development of regulatory requirements; identify, prioritize, and guide research aimed at reducing uncertainties for objective estimations of risk; and support safety assessments.« less

Semi-nonparametric VaR forecasts for hedge funds during the recent crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Brio, Esther B.; Mora-Valencia, Andrés; Perote, Javier

2014-05-01

The need to provide accurate value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting measures has triggered an important literature in econophysics. Although these accurate VaR models and methodologies are particularly demanded for hedge fund managers, there exist few articles specifically devoted to implement new techniques in hedge fund returns VaR forecasting. This article advances in these issues by comparing the performance of risk measures based on parametric distributions (the normal, Student’s t and skewed-t), semi-nonparametric (SNP) methodologies based on Gram-Charlier (GC) series and the extreme value theory (EVT) approach. Our results show that normal-, Student’s t- and Skewed t- based methodologies fail to forecast hedge fund VaR, whilst SNP and EVT approaches accurately success on it. We extend these results to the multivariate framework by providing an explicit formula for the GC copula and its density that encompasses the Gaussian copula and accounts for non-linear dependences. We show that the VaR obtained by the meta GC accurately captures portfolio risk and outperforms regulatory VaR estimates obtained through the meta Gaussian and Student’s t distributions.

Documenting the Intangible and the Use of "collective Memory" as a Tool for Risk Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekim, Z.; Güney, E. E.; Vatan, M.

2017-08-01

Increasing immigration activities due to globalized economies, political conflicts, wars and disasters of the recent years not only had a serious impact on the tangible heritage fabric, but also on the intangible values of heritage sites. With the challenges of managing drastic changes the field of heritage is faced with in mind, this paper proposes a documentation strategy that utilizes "collective memory" as a tool for risk mitigation of culturally diverse sites. Intangible and tangible values of two cases studies, from Turkey and Canada, are studied in a comparative way to create a methodology for the use of collected data on "collective memory and identity" in risk mitigation and managing change as a living value of the site.

Translational benchmark risk analysis

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.

2010-01-01

Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

Application of Bayesian and cost benefit risk analysis in water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, E. A.; Palogos, I.; Karatzas, G. P.

2016-03-01

Decision making is a significant tool in water resources management applications. This technical note approaches a decision dilemma that has not yet been considered for the water resources management of a watershed. A common cost-benefit analysis approach, which is novel in the risk analysis of hydrologic/hydraulic applications, and a Bayesian decision analysis are applied to aid the decision making on whether or not to construct a water reservoir for irrigation purposes. The alternative option examined is a scaled parabolic fine variation in terms of over-pumping violations in contrast to common practices that usually consider short-term fines. The methodological steps are analytically presented associated with originally developed code. Such an application, and in such detail, represents new feedback. The results indicate that the probability uncertainty is the driving issue that determines the optimal decision with each methodology, and depending on the unknown probability handling, each methodology may lead to a different optimal decision. Thus, the proposed tool can help decision makers to examine and compare different scenarios using two different approaches before making a decision considering the cost of a hydrologic/hydraulic project and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval. In contrast to practices that assess the effect of each proposed action separately considering only current knowledge of the examined issue, this tool aids decision making by considering prior information and the sampling distribution of future successful audits.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Methods to Enhance Students' Entrepreneurial Mindset: A Swedish Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindberg, Erik; Bohman, Håkan; Hultén, Peter

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of intervention methods in an entrepreneurship education (EE) course that was designed to enhance the students' entrepreneurial mindset by targeting their opportunity identification, creativity and risk management capabilities (RMC). Design/methodology/approach: The authors formulate…

Representing causal knowledge in environmental policy interventions: Advantages and opportunities for qualitative influence diagram applications

EPA Science Inventory

This article develops and explores a methodology for using qualitative influence diagrams in environmental policy and management to support decision-making efforts that minimize risk and increase resiliency. Influence diagrams are representations of the conditional aspects of a p...

Development and validation of risk models and molecular diagnostics to permit personalized management of cancer.

PubMed

Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Wu, Xifeng

2014-01-01

Despite the advances made in cancer management over the past few decades, improvements in cancer diagnosis and prognosis are still poor, highlighting the need for individualized strategies. Toward this goal, risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools have been developed, tailoring each step of risk assessment from diagnosis to treatment and clinical outcomes based on the individual's clinical, epidemiological, and molecular profiles. These approaches hold increasing promise for delivering a new paradigm to maximize the efficiency of cancer surveillance and efficacy of treatment. However, they require stringent study design, methodology development, comprehensive assessment of biomarkers and risk factors, and extensive validation to ensure their overall usefulness for clinical translation. In the current study, the authors conducted a systematic review using breast cancer as an example and provide general guidelines for risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools, including development, assessment, and validation. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Managing the risks of on-site health centers.

PubMed

Gorman, Kathleen M; Miller, Ross M

2011-11-01

This review sought to assess compliance concerns, determine risk management strategies, and identify opportunities for future research to contribute to employers' understanding of the laws and regulations that apply to on-site care. A comprehensive review of databases, professional organizations' websites, and journals resulted in 22 publications reporting on the consequences of noncompliance among on-site health centers accepted for inclusion. None of those studies reported a study design or quantifiable outcome data. Two noncompliance themes were repeated among the publications. First, direct penalties included fines, civil actions, loss of licensure, and, potentially, criminal charges. Second, noncompliance also resulted in indirect costs such as employee mistrust and lowered standards of care, which jeopardize on-site health centers' ability to demonstrate a return on investment. Further research with rigorous methodology is needed to inform employer decisions about on-site health services and associated risk management. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

Sexual violence as a limiting factor on the perception and management of the risk of HIV in women married to migrants 1

PubMed Central

Flores, Yesica Yolanda Rangel

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: to analyze the influence of sexual violence on the perception and management of the risk of HIV in women married to migrants. Methods: study with an ethnographic approach carried out in urban and rural communities. Data were obtained by methodological triangulation, with participant and non-participant observation, as well as interviews. The informants were 21 women married to international migrants. The interviews were transcribed and discourse analysis was applied to them. Results: three categories emerged from the speeches to problematize the influence of sexual violence in the perception and management of the risk of HIV: "Characterization of sexual practices in the context of migration", "Experiences of sexual violence" and "Construction of the risk of HIV-AIDS". Conclusion: women have difficulty to recognize the acts of sexual violence in their daily lives, and their perceptions of risk are not decisive in the management of the threat to which they are exposed. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly urgent that nursing problematizes the sexual violence within "steady couples", as a challenge to the promotion of healthy lifestyles. PMID:27598375

Electronic symptom reporting between patient and provider for improved health care service quality: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials. part 2: methodological quality and effects.

PubMed

Johansen, Monika Alise; Berntsen, Gro K Rosvold; Schuster, Tibor; Henriksen, Eva; Horsch, Alexander

2012-10-03

We conducted in two parts a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on electronic symptom reporting between patients and providers to improve health care service quality. Part 1 reviewed the typology of patient groups, health service innovations, and research targets. Four innovation categories were identified: consultation support, monitoring with clinician support, self-management with clinician support, and therapy. To assess the methodological quality of the RCTs, and summarize effects and benefits from the methodologically best studies. We searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and IEEE Xplore for original studies presented in English-language articles between 1990 and November 2011. Risk of bias and feasibility were judged according to the Cochrane recommendation, and theoretical evidence and preclinical testing were evaluated according to the Framework for Design and Evaluation of Complex Interventions to Improve Health. Three authors assessed the risk of bias and two authors extracted the effect data independently. Disagreement regarding bias assessment, extraction, and interpretation of results were resolved by consensus discussions. Of 642 records identified, we included 32 articles representing 29 studies. No articles fulfilled all quality requirements. All interventions were feasible to implement in a real-life setting, and theoretical evidence was provided for almost all studies. However, preclinical testing was reported in only a third of the articles. We judged three-quarters of the articles to have low risk for random sequence allocation and approximately half of the articles to have low risk for the following biases: allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, and selective reporting. Slightly more than one fifth of the articles were judged as low risk for blinding of outcome assessment. Only 1 article had low risk of bias for blinding of participants and personnel. We excluded 12 articles showing high risk or unclear risk for both selective reporting and blinding of outcome assessment from the effect assessment. The authors' hypothesis was confirmed for 13 (65%) of the 20 remaining articles. Articles on self-management support were of higher quality, allowing us to assess effects in a larger proportion of studies. All except one self-management interventions were equally effective to or better than the control option. The self-management articles document substantial benefits for patients, and partly also for health professionals and the health care system. Electronic symptom reporting between patients and providers is an exciting area of development for health services. However, the research generally is of low quality. The field would benefit from increased focus on methods for conducting and reporting RCTs. It appears particularly important to improve blinding of outcome assessment and to precisely define primary outcomes to avoid selective reporting. Supporting self-management seems to be especially promising, but consultation support also shows encouraging results.

Electronic Symptom Reporting Between Patient and Provider for Improved Health Care Service Quality: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials. Part 2: Methodological Quality and Effects

PubMed Central

Berntsen, Gro K Rosvold; Schuster, Tibor; Henriksen, Eva; Horsch, Alexander

2012-01-01

Background We conducted in two parts a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on electronic symptom reporting between patients and providers to improve health care service quality. Part 1 reviewed the typology of patient groups, health service innovations, and research targets. Four innovation categories were identified: consultation support, monitoring with clinician support, self-management with clinician support, and therapy. Objective To assess the methodological quality of the RCTs, and summarize effects and benefits from the methodologically best studies. Methods We searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and IEEE Xplore for original studies presented in English-language articles between 1990 and November 2011. Risk of bias and feasibility were judged according to the Cochrane recommendation, and theoretical evidence and preclinical testing were evaluated according to the Framework for Design and Evaluation of Complex Interventions to Improve Health. Three authors assessed the risk of bias and two authors extracted the effect data independently. Disagreement regarding bias assessment, extraction, and interpretation of results were resolved by consensus discussions. Results Of 642 records identified, we included 32 articles representing 29 studies. No articles fulfilled all quality requirements. All interventions were feasible to implement in a real-life setting, and theoretical evidence was provided for almost all studies. However, preclinical testing was reported in only a third of the articles. We judged three-quarters of the articles to have low risk for random sequence allocation and approximately half of the articles to have low risk for the following biases: allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, and selective reporting. Slightly more than one fifth of the articles were judged as low risk for blinding of outcome assessment. Only 1 article had low risk of bias for blinding of participants and personnel. We excluded 12 articles showing high risk or unclear risk for both selective reporting and blinding of outcome assessment from the effect assessment. The authors’ hypothesis was confirmed for 13 (65%) of the 20 remaining articles. Articles on self-management support were of higher quality, allowing us to assess effects in a larger proportion of studies. All except one self-management interventions were equally effective to or better than the control option. The self-management articles document substantial benefits for patients, and partly also for health professionals and the health care system. Conclusion Electronic symptom reporting between patients and providers is an exciting area of development for health services. However, the research generally is of low quality. The field would benefit from increased focus on methods for conducting and reporting RCTs. It appears particularly important to improve blinding of outcome assessment and to precisely define primary outcomes to avoid selective reporting. Supporting self-management seems to be especially promising, but consultation support also shows encouraging results. PMID:23032363

Implementation of Risk Management in NASA's CEV Project- Ensuring Mission Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Jeevan; Holsomback, Jerry D.

2005-12-01

Most project managers know that Risk Management (RM) is essential to good project management. At NASA, standards and procedures to manage risk through a tiered approach have been developed - from the global agency-wide requirements down to a program or project's implementation. The basic methodology for NASA's risk management strategy includes processes to identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate and document risks. The identification, characterization, mitigation plan, and mitigation responsibilities associated with specific risks are documented to help communicate, manage, and effectuate appropriate closure. This approach helps to ensure more consistent documentation and assessment and provides a means of archiving lessons learned for future identification or mitigation activities.A new risk database and management tool was developed by NASA in 2002 and since has been used successfully to communicate, document and manage a number of diverse risks for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and several other NASA projects and programs including at the Johnson Space Center. Organizations use this database application to effectively manage and track each risk and gain insight into impacts from other organization's viewpoint to develop integrated solutions. Schedule, cost, technical and safety issues are tracked in detail through this system.Risks are tagged within the system to ensure proper review, coordination and management at the necessary management level. The database is intended as a day-to- day tool for organizations to manage their risks and elevate those issues that need coordination from above. Each risk is assigned to a managing organization and a specific risk owner who generates mitigation plans as appropriate. In essence, the risk owner is responsible for shepherding the risk through closure. The individual that identifies a new risk does not necessarily get assigned as the risk owner. Whoever is in the best position to effectuate comprehensive closure is assigned as the risk owner. Each mitigation plan includes the specific tasks that will be conducted to either decrease the likelihood of the risk occurring and/or lessen the severity of the consequences if they do occur. As each mitigation task is completed, the responsible managing organization records the completion of the task in the risk database and then re-scores the risk considering the task's results. By keeping scores updated, a managing organization's current top risks and risk posture can be readily identified including the status of any risk in the system.A number of metrics measure risk process trends from data contained in the database. This allows for trend analysis to further identify improvements to the process and assist in the management of all risks. The metrics will also scrutinize both the effectiveness and compliance of risk management requirements.The risk database is an evolving tool and will be continuously improved with capabilities requested by the NASA project community. This paper presents the basic foundations of risk management, the elements necessary for effective risk management, and the capabilities of this new risk database and how it is implemented to support NASA's risk management needs.

Methodology for setting risk-based concentrations of contaminants in soil and groundwater and application to a model contaminated site.

PubMed

Fujinaga, Aiichiro; Uchiyama, Iwao; Morisawa, Shinsuke; Yoneda, Minoru; Sasamoto, Yuzuru

2012-01-01

In Japan, environmental standards for contaminants in groundwater and in leachate from soil are set with the assumption that they are used for drinking water over a human lifetime. Where there is neither a well nor groundwater used for drinking, the standard is thus too severe. Therefore, remediation based on these standards incurs excessive effort and cost. In contrast, the environmental-assessment procedure used in the United States and the Netherlands considers the site conditions (land use, existing wells, etc.); however, a risk assessment is required for each site. Therefore, this study proposes a new framework for judging contamination in Japan by considering the merits of the environmental standards used and a method for risk assessment. The framework involves setting risk-based concentrations that are attainable remediation goals for contaminants in soil and groundwater. The framework was then applied to a model contaminated site for risk management, and the results are discussed regarding the effectiveness and applicability of the new methodology. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What lies behind crop decisions?Coming to terms with revealing farmers' preferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, C.; Gutierrez, C.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; López Nicolás, A.

2016-12-01

The paper offers a fully-fledged applied revealed preference methodology to screen and represent farmers' choices as the solution of an optimal program involving trade-offs among the alternative welfare outcomes of crop decisions such as profits, income security and management easiness. The recursive two-stage method is proposed as an alternative to cope with the methodological problems inherent to common practice positive mathematical program methodologies (PMP). Differently from PMP, in the model proposed in this paper, the non-linear costs that are required for both calibration and smooth adjustment are not at odds with the assumptions of linear Leontief technologies and fixed crop prices and input costs. The method frees the model from ad-hoc assumptions about costs and then recovers the potential of economic analysis as a means to understand the rationale behind observed and forecasted farmers' decisions and then to enhance the potential of the model to support policy making in relevant domains such as agricultural policy, water management, risk management and climate change adaptation. After the introduction, where the methodological drawbacks and challenges are set up, section two presents the theoretical model, section three develops its empirical application and presents its implementation to a Spanish irrigation district and finally section four concludes and makes suggestions for further research.

A Socio-Technical Exploration for Reducing & Mitigating the Risk of Retained Foreign Objects

PubMed Central

Corrigan, Siobhán; Kay, Alison; O’Byrne, Katie; Slattery, Dubhfeasa; Sheehan, Sharon; McDonald, Nick; Smyth, David; Mealy, Ken; Cromie, Sam

2018-01-01

A Retained Foreign Object (RFO) is a fairly infrequent but serious adverse event. An accurate rate of RFOs is difficult to establish due to underreporting but it has been estimated that incidences range between 1/1000 and 1/19,000 procedures. The cost of a RFO incident may be substantial and three-fold: (i) the cost to the patient of physical and/or psychological harm; (ii) the reputational cost to an institution and/or healthcare provider; and (iii) the financial cost to the taxpayer in the event of a legal claim. This Health Research Board-funded project aims to analyse and understand the problem of RFOs in surgical and maternity settings in Ireland and develop hospital-specific foreign object management processes and implementation roadmaps. This project will deploy an integrated evidence-based assessment methodology for social-technical modelling (Supply, Context, Organising, Process & Effects/ SCOPE Analysis Cube) and bow tie methodologies that focuses on managing the risks in effectively implementing and sustaining change. It comprises a multi-phase research approach that involves active and ongoing collaboration with clinical and other healthcare staff through each phase of the research. The specific objective of this paper is to present the methodological approach and outline the potential to produce generalisable results which could be applied to other health-related issues. PMID:29642646

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-08-01

This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Future developments in health care performance management

PubMed Central

Crema, Maria; Verbano, Chiara

2013-01-01

This paper highlights the challenges of performance management in health care, wherein multiple different objectives have to be pursued. The literature suggests starting with quality performance, following the sand cone theory, but considering a multidimensional concept of health care quality. Moreover, new managerial approaches coming from an industrial context and adapted to health care, such as lean management and risk management, can contribute to improving quality performance. Therefore, the opportunity to analyze them arises from studying their overlaps and links in order to identify possible synergies and to investigate the opportunity to develop an integrated methodology enabling improved performance. PMID:24255600

PEER Transportation Research Program | PEER Transportation Research Program

Science.gov Websites

methodologies, integrating fundamental knowledge, enabling technologies, and systems. We further expect that the Bayesian Framework for Performance Assessment and Risk Management of Transportation Systems subject to Earthquakes Directivity Modeling for NGA West2 Ground Motion Studies for Transportation Systems Performance

Implications Climate Change for Contaminant Management: Effects of Temperature on Individual and population toxicity in Daphnia Magna

EPA Science Inventory

A main goal of ecotoxicology and risk assessment is to assess the impact on aquatic populations. However the most widely used bioassays measure the response of individuals to infer population effects. Bridging the gap between established individual-based methodology and the popul...

Selection and procurement of commercial parts for microsat product line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, P.; Cavalin, O.; Chaminade, C.; Mouton, A.

2002-12-01

For the microsatellite product line named Myriade using, on a large scale, commercial parts, this paper presents the parts management strategy. The paper describes the adapted methodology with respect to the program risk/cost ratio and identifies the lessons learned from the selection and procurement process.

23 CFR 630.1108 - Work zone safety management measures and strategies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... uniformed law enforcement officer and marked law enforcement vehicle in view of motorized traffic on a... and other contingencies. (e) Work Vehicles and Equipment. In addition to addressing risks to workers... contractor's choice of work scheduling and methodology; (6) For Lump Sum items, a contingency provision...

Prospects for public participation on nuclear risks and policy options: innovations in governance practices for sustainable development in the European Union.

PubMed

O'Connor, M; van den Hove, S

2001-09-14

We outline the potential participative governance and risk management in application to technological choices in the nuclear sector within the European Union (EU). Well-conducted public participation, stakeholder consultation and deliberation procedures can enhance the policy process and improve the robustness of strategies dealing with high-stakes investment and risk management challenges. Key nuclear issues now confronting EU member states are: public concern with large-scale environmental and health issues; the Chernobyl accident (and others less catastrophic) whose effect has been to erode public confidence and trust in the nuclear sector; the maturity of the nuclear plant, hence the emerging prominence of waste transportation, reprocessing and disposal issues as part of historical liability within the EU; the nuclear energy heritage of central and eastern European candidate countries to EU accession. The obligatory management of inherited technological risks and uncertainties on large temporal and geographical scales, is a novel feature of technology assessment and governance. Progress in the nuclear sector will aid the development of methodologies for technological foresight and risk governance in fields other than the nuclear alone.

Spatially explicit risk approach for multi-hazard assessment and management in marine environment: The case study of the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Furlan, Elisa; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2018-03-15

In the last few decades the health of marine ecosystems has been progressively endangered by the anthropogenic presence. Natural and human-made pressures, as well as climate change effects, are posing increasing threats on marine areas, triggering alteration of biological, chemical and physical processes. Planning of marine areas has become a challenge for decision makers involved in the design of sustainable management options. In order to address threats posed by climate drivers in combination with local to regional anthropogenic pressures affecting marine ecosystems and activities, a multi-hazard assessment methodology was developed and applied to the Adriatic Sea for the reference scenario 2000-2015. Through a four-stages process based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk the methodology allows a semi-quantitative evaluation of the relative risk from anthropogenic and natural sources to multiple endpoints, thus supporting the identification and ranking of areas and targets more likely to be at risk. Resulting output showed that the higher relative hazard scores are linked to exogenic pressures (e.g. sea surface temperature variation) while the lower ones resulted from endogenic and more localized stressors (e.g. abrasion, nutrient input). Relatively very high scores were observed for vulnerability over the whole case study for almost all the considered pressures, showing seagrasses meadows, maërl and coral beds as the most susceptible targets. The approach outlined in this study provides planners and decision makers a quick-screening tool to evaluate progress towards attaining a good environmental status and to identify marine areas where management actions and adaptation strategies would be best targeted. Moreover, by focusing on risks induced by land-based drivers, resulting output can support the design of infrastructures for reducing pressures on the sea, contributing to improve the land-sea interface management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A systematic review of socio-economic assessments in support of coastal zone management (1992-2011).

PubMed

Le Gentil, Eric; Mongruel, Rémi

2015-02-01

Cooperation between the social and natural sciences has become essential in order to encompass all the dimensions of coastal zone management. Socio-economic approaches are increasingly recommended to complement integrated assessment in support of these initiatives. A systematic review of the academic literature was carried out in order to analyze the main types of socio-economic assessments used to inform the coastal zone management process as well as their effectiveness. A corpus of 1682 articles published between 1992 and 2011 was identified by means of the representative coverage approach, from which 170 were selected by applying inclusion/exclusion criteria and then classified using a content analysis methodology. The percentage of articles that mention the use of socio-economic assessment in support of coastal zone management initiatives is increasing but remains relatively low. The review examines the links between the issues addressed by integrated assessments and the chosen analytical frameworks as well as the various economic assessment methods which are used in the successive steps of the coastal zone management process. The results show that i) analytical frameworks such as 'risk and vulnerability', 'DPSIR', 'valuation', 'ecosystem services' and 'preferences' are likely to lead to effective integration of social sciences in coastal zone management research while 'integration', 'sustainability' and 'participation' remain difficult to operationalize, ii) risk assessments are insufficiently implemented in developing countries, and iii) indicator systems in support of multi-criteria analyses could be used during more stages of the coastal zone management process. Finally, it is suggested that improved collaboration between science and management would require that scientists currently involved in coastal zone management processes further educate themselves in integrated assessment approaches and participatory methodologies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetes and end of life: ethical and methodological issues in gathering evidence to guide care.

PubMed

Dunning, Trisha; Duggan, Nicole; Savage, Sally; Martin, Peter

2013-03-01

Providing palliative care for people with diabetes at the end of life is part of the chronic disease care trajectory, but end of life care is complex and the presence of diabetes further complicates management. The aim of the paper is to discuss the ethical and methodological issues encountered when undertaking research to develop guidelines for managing diabetes at the end of life and the strategies used to address the issues. The issues emerged as we developed guidelines for managing diabetes at the end of life, which included conducting individual interviews with 14 people with diabetes requiring palliative care and 10 family members. A reflexive researcher journal was maintained throughout the guideline development process. The interview transcripts and researcher's journal were analysed to determine key methodological, ethical and researcher-related issues. Key themes were vulnerability of the sampling population, methodological issues included recruiting participants and ensuring rigor, ethical issues concerned benefit and risk, justice, autonomy, privacy, professional boundaries and informed consent. Researcher-related issues were identified such as managing participant distress and their own emotional distress. People were willing to discuss end of life diabetes management preferences. Undertaking research with people at the end of life is complex because of their vulnerability and the ethical issues involved. However, the ethical principles of autonomy and justice apply and people should be given the relevant information and opportunity to decide whether to participate or not. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences © 2012 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

LNG risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, P.

1980-12-01

A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

PubMed

Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

2014-07-15

Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2012 AAPS National Biotech Conference Open Forum: a perspective on the current state of immunogenicity prediction and risk management.

PubMed

Rajadhyaksha, Manoj; Subramanyam, Meena; Rup, Bonnie

2013-10-01

The immunogenicity profile of a biotherapeutic is determined by multiple product-, process- or manufacturing-, patient- and treatment-related factors and the bioanalytical methodology used to monitor for immunogenicity. This creates a complex situation that limits direct correlation of individual factors to observed immunogenicity rates. Therefore, mechanistic understanding of how these factors individually or in concert could influence the overall incidence and clinical risk of immunogenicity is crucial to provide the best benefit/risk profile for a given biotherapeutic in a given indication and to inform risk mitigation strategies. Advances in the field of immunogenicity have included development of best practices for monitoring anti-drug antibody development, categorization of risk factors contributing to immunogenicity, development of predictive tools, and development of effective strategies for risk management and mitigation. Thus, the opportunity to ask "where we are now and where we would like to go from here?" was the main driver for organizing an Open Forum on Improving Immunogenicity Risk Prediction and Management, conducted at the 2012 American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists' (AAPS) National Biotechnology Conference in San Diego. The main objectives of the Forum include the following: to understand the nature of immunogenicity risk factors, to identify analytical tools used and animal models and management strategies needed to improve their predictive value, and finally to identify collaboration opportunities to improve the reliability of risk prediction, mitigation, and management. This meeting report provides the Forum participant's and author's perspectives on the barriers to advancing this field and recommendations for overcoming these barriers through collaborative efforts.

Can formal collaborative methodologies improve quality in primary health care in New Zealand? Insights from the EQUIPPED Auckland Collaborative.

PubMed

Palmer, Celia; Bycroft, Janine; Healey, Kate; Field, Adrian; Ghafel, Mazin

2012-12-01

Auckland District Health Board was one of four District Health Boards to trial the Breakthrough Series (BTS) methodology to improve the management of long-term conditions in New Zealand, with support from the Ministry of Health. To improve clinical outcomes, facilitate planned care and promote quality improvement within participating practices in Auckland. Implementation of the Collaborative followed the improvement model / Institute for Healthcare Improvement methodology. Three topic areas were selected: system redesign, cardio-vascular disease/diabetes, and self-management support. An expert advisory group and the Improvement Foundation Australia helped guide project development and implementation. Primary Health Organisation facilitators were trained in the methodology and 15 practice teams participated in the three learning workshops and action periods over 12 months. An independent evaluation study using both quantitative and qualitative methods was conducted. Improvements were recorded in cardiovascular disease risk assessment, practice-level systems of care, self-management systems and follow-up and coordination for patients. Qualitative research found improvements in coordination and teamwork, knowledge of practice populations and understanding of managing long-term conditions. The Collaborative process delivered some real improvements in the systems of care for people with long-term conditions and a change in culture among participating practices. The findings suggest that by strengthening facilitation processes, improving access to comprehensive population audit tools and lengthening the time frame, the process has the potential to make significant improvements in practice. Other organisations should consider this approach when investigating quality improvement programmes.

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

2010-01-01

Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

Program and Project Management Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Cassandra D.

2002-01-01

The primary objective of this project was to develop a framework and system architecture for integrating program and project management tools that may be applied consistently throughout Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to optimize planning, cost estimating, risk management, and project control. Project management methodology used in building interactive systems to accommodate the needs of the project managers is applied as a key component in assessing the usefulness and applicability of the framework and tools developed. Research for the project included investigation and analysis of industrial practices, KSC standards, policies, and techniques, Systems Management Office (SMO) personnel, and other documented experiences of project management experts. In addition, this project documents best practices derived from the literature as well as new or developing project management models, practices, and techniques.

Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2014-12-01

The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying methodologies, and selected applications with the California water resources system.

Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

PubMed

Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

2011-09-10

In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surveying perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Jessica Ka Yi; Eidsvig, Unni

2016-04-01

Enhanced precipitation due to climate change leads to increase in both frequency and intensity of landslides in Norway. A proactive approach to risk management is therefore required to significantly reduce the losses associated with landslides. Opinions and perceptions from practitioners on the performance of landslide risk management can provide insights on areas for improvement in the landslide risk management strategies in Norway. The Risk Management Index (RMI), proposed by Cardona et al. (2004), is a well-established method to measure perceptions of disaster management of selected actors holistically. The RMI is measured based on opinion questionnaires to technical staff, decision-makers, and stakeholders involved in all stages of risk reduction strategies. It is a composite index that considers a wide variety of strategies to manage risks, including structural and non-structural measures, acceptance strategies, disaster management, and risk transfer. The RMI method was modified to be implemented in landslide hazards and to fit with Norwegian conditions. An opinion survey was conducted in autumn 2015 to measure perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway. Perceptions were surveyed for two time periods: 2015 and 2050, and are based on national, county, and municipality levels. Based on the survey results, performance of landslide risk management at any administrative levels in Norway is perceived to improve from `significant' in 2015 to `significant' to `outstanding' in 2050. Knowledge and technology, climate, risk perceptions, and anthropogenic activities are mostly considered by respondents for their 2050 perceptions. Several aspects of landslide risk management in Norway can be improved. For example, landslide hazard evaluation and mapping should be prioritised in Norway. Upgrading, retrofitting, and reconstruction of assets may also be included in the landslide risk reduction strategies. In addition, there should be more focus on inter-institutional organisation as well as allocation and use of financial resources for dealing with landslides at local levels. Although the survey was considered too difficult by some of the respondents, it can be regarded as a starting point to develop a common terminology/language in landslide risk management in Norway that allows mutual understandings among people with different backgrounds. The approach of surveying perceptions of landslide risk management can also be expanded to the public to enable comparisons of perceptions between experts and the public. Furthermore, the methodology can be applied to other types of natural hazards in Norway, such as floods. This project is supported by Klima2050 (http://www.klima2050.no/).

Risk as a Resource - A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gindorf, Thomas E.

1996-01-01

NASA must change dramatically because of the current United States federal budget climate. The American people and their elected officials have mandated a smaller, more efficient and effective government. For the past decade, NASA's budget had grown at or slightly above the rate of inflation. In that era, taking all steps to avoid the risk of failure was the rule. Spacecraft development was characterized by extensive analyses, numerous reviews, and multiple conservative tests. This methodology was consistent with the long available schedules for developing hardware and software for very large, billion dollar spacecraft. Those days are over. The time when every identifiable step was taken to avoid risk is being replaced by a new paradigm which manages risk in much the same way as other resources (schedule, performance, or dollars) are managed. While success is paramount to survival, it can no longer be bought with a large growing NASA budget.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

Estimating the reliability of glycemic index values and potential sources of methodological and biological variability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: The utility of glycemic index (GI) values for chronic disease risk management remains controversial. While absolute GI value determinations for individual foods have been shown to vary significantly in individuals with diabetes, there is a dearth of data on the reliability of GI value de...

Identification of general risk-management countermeasures for unsafe driving actions. Volume 3, A definitional study of speeding, following too closely, and driving left of center

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-02-01

The report develops a set of operational definitions for three unsafe driving actions (UDAs): speeding, following too closely, and driving left of center. The definitions flow from a methodological development and from an analysis of the literature a...

78 FR 5462 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-25

... these decisionmaking processes will be applied by FDA to help design effective communication strategies..., beliefs, and behaviors--and use risk communications; (2) more efficiently and effectively design messages... provided about the design and methodology of the pretests and the studies to effectively comment on the...

AST/R–BASED WATER REUSE AS A PART OF THE TOTAL WATER SOLUTION FOR WATER-STRESSED REGIONS: AN OVERVIEW OF ENGINEERING PRACTICE AND REGULATORY PROSPECTIVE

EPA Science Inventory

Water supply and demand are increasingly unbalanced in many parts of the world. To address the imbalance, the total water solution methodology simultaneously considers regulatory, engineering, environmental and economic factors to optimize risk management solutions for an entire...

AST/R BASED WATER REUSE AS A PART OF THE TOTAL WATER SOLUTION FOR WATER-STRESSED REGIONS: AN OVERVIEW OF ENGINEERING PRACTICE AND REGULATORY PROSPECTIVE

EPA Science Inventory

Water supply and demand are increasingly unbalanced in many parts of the world. To address the imbalance, the total water solution methodology simultaneously considers regulatory, engineering, environmental and economic factors to optimize risk management solutions for an entire ...

Catchment scale assessment of risk posed by traffic generated heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; McGree, James; Liu, An; Deilami, Kaveh; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-10-01

Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants present in urban stormwater. Consequently, urban stormwater reuse is constrained due to the human health risk posed by these pollutants. This study developed a scientifically robust approach to assess the risk to human health posed by HMs and PAHs in urban stormwater in order to enhance its reuse. Accordingly, an innovative methodology was created consisting of four stages: quantification of traffic and land use parameters; estimation of pollutant concentrations for model development; risk assessment, and risk map presentation. This methodology will contribute to catchment scale assessment of the risk associated with urban stormwater and for risk mitigation. The risk map developed provides a simple and efficient approach to identify the critical areas within a large catchment. The study also found that heavy molecular weight PAHs (PAHs with 5-6 benzene rings) in urban stormwater pose higher risk to human health compared to light molecular PAHs (PAHs with 2-4 benzene rings). These outcomes will facilitate the development of practical approaches for applying appropriate mitigation measures for the safe management of urban stormwater pollution and for the identification of enhanced reuse opportunities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of occupational health hazards and associated risks in fuzzy environment: a case research in an Indian underground coal mine.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-09-01

This paper presents a unique hierarchical structure on various occupational health hazards including physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic and psychosocial hazards, and associated adverse consequences in relation to an underground coal mine. The study proposes a systematic health hazard risk assessment methodology for estimating extent of hazard risk using three important measuring parameters: consequence of exposure, period of exposure and probability of exposure. An improved decision making method using fuzzy set theory has been attempted herein for converting linguistic data into numeric risk ratings. The concept of 'centre of area' method for generalized triangular fuzzy numbers has been explored to quantify the 'degree of hazard risk' in terms of crisp ratings. Finally, a logical framework for categorizing health hazards into different risk levels has been constructed on the basis of distinguished ranges of evaluated risk ratings (crisp). Subsequently, an action requirement plan has been suggested, which could provide guideline to the managers for successfully managing health hazard risks in the context of underground coal mining exercise.

[How the information system can contribute to the implementation of a risk management program in a hospital?].

PubMed

Staccini, P; Quaranta, J F; Staccini-Myx, A; Veyres, P; Jambou, P

2003-09-01

Nowadays, information system is recognised as one of the key points of the management strategy. An information system is regarded conceptualised as a mean to link 3 aspects of a firm (structure, organisation rules and staff). Its design and implementation have to meet the objectives of medical and economical evaluation, especially risk management objectives. In order to identify, analyse, reduce and prevent the occurrence of adverse events, and also to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the production of care services, the design of information systems should be based on a process analysis in order to describe and classify all the working practices within the hospital. According to various methodologies (usually top-down analysis), each process can be divided into activities. Each activity (especially each care activity) can be described according to its potential risks and expected results. For care professionals performing a task, the access to official or internal guidelines and the adverse events reporting forms has also to be defined. Putting together all the elements of such a process analysis will contribute to integrate, into daily practice, the management of risks, supported by the information system.

Solving a methodological challenge in work stress evaluation with the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit (StART): a study protocol.

PubMed

Guglielmi, Dina; Simbula, Silvia; Vignoli, Michela; Bruni, Ilaria; Depolo, Marco; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Tabanelli, Maria Carla; Violante, Francesco Saverio

2013-06-22

Stress evaluation is a field of strong interest and challenging due to several methodological aspects in the evaluation process. The aim of this study is to propose a study protocol to test a new method (i.e., the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit) to assess psychosocial risk factors at work. This method addresses several methodological issues (e.g., subjective vs. objective, qualitative vs quantitative data) by assessing work-related stressors using different kinds of data: i) organisational archival data (organisational indicators sheet); ii) qualitative data (focus group); iii) worker perception (questionnaire); and iv) observational data (observational checklist) using mixed methods research. In addition, it allows positive and negative aspects of work to be considered conjointly, using an approach that considers at the same time job demands and job resources. The integration of these sources of data can reduce the theoretical and methodological bias related to stress research in the work setting, allows researchers and professionals to obtain a reliable description of workers' stress, providing a more articulate vision of psychosocial risks, and allows a large amount of data to be collected. Finally, the implementation of the method ensures in the long term a primary prevention for psychosocial risk management in that it aims to reduce or modify the intensity, frequency or duration of organisational demands.

Solving a methodological challenge in work stress evaluation with the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit (StART): a study protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Stress evaluation is a field of strong interest and challenging due to several methodological aspects in the evaluation process. The aim of this study is to propose a study protocol to test a new method (i.e., the Stress Assessment and Research Toolkit) to assess psychosocial risk factors at work. Design This method addresses several methodological issues (e.g., subjective vs. objective, qualitative vs quantitative data) by assessing work-related stressors using different kinds of data: i) organisational archival data (organisational indicators sheet); ii) qualitative data (focus group); iii) worker perception (questionnaire); and iv) observational data (observational checklist) using mixed methods research. In addition, it allows positive and negative aspects of work to be considered conjointly, using an approach that considers at the same time job demands and job resources. Discussion The integration of these sources of data can reduce the theoretical and methodological bias related to stress research in the work setting, allows researchers and professionals to obtain a reliable description of workers’ stress, providing a more articulate vision of psychosocial risks, and allows a large amount of data to be collected. Finally, the implementation of the method ensures in the long term a primary prevention for psychosocial risk management in that it aims to reduce or modify the intensity, frequency or duration of organisational demands. PMID:23799950

Safety management and risk assessment in chemical laboratories.

PubMed

Marendaz, Jean-Luc; Friedrich, Kirstin; Meyer, Thierry

2011-01-01

The present paper highlights a new safety management program, MICE (Management, Information, Control and Emergency), which has been specifically adapted for the academic environment. The process starts with an exhaustive hazard inventory supported by a platform assembling specific hazards encountered in laboratories and their subsequent classification. A proof of concept is given by a series of implementations in the domain of chemistry targeting workplace health protection. The methodology is expressed through three examples to illustrate how the MICE program can be used to address safety concerns regarding chemicals, strong magnetic fields and nanoparticles in research laboratories. A comprehensive chemical management program is also depicted.

Nano-Evaluris: an inhalation and explosion risk evaluation method for nanoparticle use. Part I: description of the methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouillard, Jacques X.; Vignes, Alexis

2014-02-01

In this paper, an inhalation health and explosion safety risk assessment methodology for nanopowders is described. Since toxicological threshold limit values are still unknown for nanosized substances, detailed risk assessment on specific plants may not be carried out. A simple approach based on occupational hazard/exposure band expressed in mass concentrations is proposed for nanopowders. This approach is consolidated with an iso surface toxicological scaling method, which has the merit, although incomplete, to provide concentration threshold levels for which new metrological instruments should be developed for proper air monitoring in order to ensure safety. Whenever the processing or use of nanomaterials is introducing a risk to the worker, a specific nano pictogram is proposed to inform the worker. Examples of risk assessment of process equipment (i.e., containment valves) processing various nanomaterials are provided. Explosion risks related to very reactive nanomaterials such as aluminum nanopowders can be assessed using this new analysis methodology adapted to nanopowders. It is nevertheless found that to formalize and extend this approach, it is absolutely necessary to develop new relevant standard apparatuses and to qualify individual and collective safety barriers with respect to health and explosion risks. In spite of these uncertainties, it appears, as shown in the second paper (Part II) that health and explosion risks, evaluated for given MWCNTs and aluminum nanoparticles, remain manageable in their continuous fabrication mode, considering current individual and collective safety barriers that can be put in place. The authors would, however, underline that peculiar attention must be paid to non-continuous modes of operations, such as process equipment cleaning steps, that are often under-analyzed and are too often forgotten critical steps needing vigilance in order to minimize potential toxic and explosion risks.

Biosimilars: pharmacovigilance and risk management.

PubMed

Zuñiga, Leyre; Calvo, Begoña

2010-07-01

Biosimilars cannot be authorized based on the same requirements that apply to generic medicines. Despite the fact that the biosimilar and reference drug can show similar efficacy, the biosimilar may exhibit different safety profile in terms of nature, seriousness or incidence of adverse reactions. However, the data from pre-authorization clinical studies normally are insufficient to identify all potential differences. Therefore, clinical safety of similar biological medicinal products must be monitored closely on an ongoing basis during the post-approval phase including continued risk-benefit assessment. The biosimilar applicant must provide the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) with a risk management plan (EU-RMP) and pharmacovigilance programme with its application, including a description of the potential safety issues associated with the similar biological medicinal product that may be a result of differences in the manufacturing process from the reference biologic. The most critical safety concern relating to biopharmaceuticals (including biosimilars) is immunogenicity. Risk management applies scientifically based methodologies to identify, assess, communicate and minimise risk throughout a drug's life cycle so as to establish and maintain a favourable benefit-risk profile in patients. The risk management plan for biosimilars should focus on heightens the pharmacovigilance measures, identify immunogenicity risk and implement special post-marketing surveillance. Although International Nonproprietary Names (INNs) served as a useful tool in worldwide pharmacovigilance, for biologicals they should not be relied upon as the only means of product identification. Biologicals should always be commercialized with a brand name or the INN plus the manufacturer's name. (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana; Granados, Alfredo

2018-06-01

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

Design risk assessment for burst-prone mines: Application in a Canadian mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, David J.

A proactive stance towards improving the effectiveness and consistency of risk assessments has been adopted recently by mining companies and industry. The next 10-20 years forecasts that ore deposits accessible using shallow mining techniques will diminish. The industry continues to strive for success in "deeper" mining projects in order to keep up with the continuing demand for raw materials. Although the returns are quite profitable, many projects have been sidelined due to high uncertainty and technical risk in the mining of the mineral deposit. Several hardrock mines have faced rockbursting and seismicity problems. Within those reported, mines in countries like South Africa, Australia and Canada have documented cases of severe rockburst conditions attributed to the mining depth. Severe rockburst conditions known as "burst-prone" can be effectively managed with design. Adopting a more robust design can ameliorate the exposure of workers and equipment to adverse conditions and minimize the economic consequences, which can hinder the bottom line of an operation. This thesis presents a methodology created for assessing the design risk in burst-prone mines. The methodology includes an evaluation of relative risk ratings for scenarios with options of risk reduction through several design principles. With rockbursts being a hazard of seismic events, the methodology is based on research in the area of mining seismicity factoring in rockmass failure mechanisms, which results from a combination of mining induced stress, geological structures, rockmass properties and mining influences. The methodology was applied to case studies at Craig Mine of Xstrata Nickel in Sudbury, Ontario, which is known to contain seismically active fault zones. A customized risk assessment was created and applied to rockburst case studies, evaluating the seismic vulnerability and consequence for each case. Application of the methodology to Craig Mine demonstrates that changes in the design can reduce both exposure risk (personnel and equipment), and economical risk (revenue and costs). Fatal and catastrophic consequences can be averted through robust planning and design. Two customized approaches were developed to conduct risk assessment of case studies at Craig Mine. Firstly, the Brownfield Approach utilizes the seismic database to determine the seismic hazard from a rating system that evaluates frequency-magnitude, event size, and event-blast relation. Secondly, the Greenfield Approach utilizes the seismic database, focusing on larger magnitude events, rocktype, and geological structure. The customized Greenfield Approach can also be applied in the evaluation of design risk in deep mines with the same setting and condition as Craig Mine. Other mines with different settings and conditions can apply the principles in the methodology to evaluate design alternatives and risk reduction strategies for burst-prone mines.

A Methodology for Writing High Quality Requirement Specifications and for Evaluating Existing Ones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore

1999-01-01

Requirements development and management have always been critical in the implementation of software systems-engineers are unable to build what analysts can not define. It is generally accepted that the earlier in the life cycle potential risks are identified the easier it is to eliminate or manage the conditions that introduce that risk. Problems that are not found until testing are approximately 14 times more costly to fix than if the problem was found in the requirement phase. The requirements specification, as the first tangible representation of the capability to be produced, establishes the basis for all of the project's engineering management and assurance functions. If the quality of the requirements specification is poor it can give rise to risks in all areas of the project. Recently, automated tools have become available to support requirements management. The use of these tools not only provides support in the definition and tracing of requirements, but it also opens the door to effective use of metrics in characterizing and assessing the quality of the requirement specifications.

A Methodology for Writing High Quality Requirements Specification and Evaluating Existing Ones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore

1999-01-01

Requirements development and management have always been critical in the implementation of software systems; engineers are unable to build what analysts can't define. It is generally accepted that the earlier in the life cycle potential risks are identified the easier it is to eliminate or manage the conditions that introduce that risk. Problems that are not found until testing are approximately 14 times more costly to fix than if the problem was found in the requirement phase. The requirements specification, as the first tangible representation of the capability to be produced, establishes the basis for all of the project's engineering management and assurance functions. If the quality of the requirements specification is poor it can give rise to risks in all areas of the project. Recently, automated tools have become available to support requirements management. The use of these tools not only provides support in the definition and tracing of requirements, but it also opens the door to effective use of metrics in characterizing and assessing the quality of the requirement specifications.

Hospital waste management in developing countries: A mini review.

PubMed

Ali, Mustafa; Wang, Wenping; Chaudhry, Nawaz; Geng, Yong

2017-06-01

Health care activities can generate different kinds of hazardous wastes. Mismanagement of these wastes can result in environmental and occupational health risks. Developing countries are resource-constrained when it comes to safe management of hospital wastes. This study summarizes the main issues faced in hospital waste management in developing countries. A review of the existing literature suggests that regulations and legislations focusing on hospital waste management are recent accomplishments in many of these countries. Implementation of these rules varies from one hospital to another. Moreover, wide variations exist in waste generation rates within as well as across these countries. This is mainly attributable to a lack of an agreement on the definitions and the methodology among the researchers to measure such wastes. Furthermore, hospitals in these countries suffer from poor waste segregation, collection, storage, transportation and disposal practices, which can lead to occupational and environmental risks. Knowledge and awareness regarding proper waste management remain low in the absence of training for hospital staff. Moreover, hospital sanitary workers, and scavengers, operate without the provision of safety equipment or immunization. Unsegregated waste is illegally recycled, leading to further safety risks. Overall, hospital waste management in developing countries faces several challenges. Sustainable waste management practices can go a long way in reducing the harmful effects of hospital wastes.

Participatory GIS for Soil Conservation in Phewa Watershed of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhandari, K. P.

2012-07-01

Participatory Geographic Information Systems (PGIS) can integrate participatory methodologies with geo-spatial technologies for the representation of characteristic of particular place. Over the last decade, researchers use this method to integrate the local knowledge of community within a GIS and Society conceptual framework. Participatory GIS are tailored to answer specific geographic questions at the local level and their modes of implementation vary considerably across space, ranging from field-based, qualitative approaches to more complex web-based applications. These broad ranges of techniques, PGIS are becoming an effective methodology for incorporating community local knowledge into complex spatial decision-making processes. The objective of this study is to reduce the soil erosion by formulating the general rule for the soil conservation by participation of the stakeholders. The poster was prepared by satellite image, topographic map and Arc GIS software including the local knowledge. The data were collected from the focus group discussion and the individual questionnaire for incorporate the local knowledge and use it to find the risk map on the basis of economic, social and manageable physical factors for the sensitivity analysis. The soil erosion risk map is prepared by the physical factors Rainfall-runoff erosivity, Soil erodibility, Slope length, Slope steepness, Cover-management, Conservation practice using RUSLE model. After the comparison and discussion among stakeholders, researcher and export group, and the soil erosion risk map showed that socioeconomic, social and manageable physical factors management can reduce the soil erosion. The study showed that the preparation of the poster GIS map and implement this in the watershed area could reduce the soil erosion in the study area compared to the existing national policy.

Semi Automatic Ontology Instantiation in the domain of Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makki, Jawad; Alquier, Anne-Marie; Prince, Violaine

One of the challenging tasks in the context of Ontological Engineering is to automatically or semi-automatically support the process of Ontology Learning and Ontology Population from semi-structured documents (texts). In this paper we describe a Semi-Automatic Ontology Instantiation method from natural language text, in the domain of Risk Management. This method is composed from three steps 1 ) Annotation with part-of-speech tags, 2) Semantic Relation Instances Extraction, 3) Ontology instantiation process. It's based on combined NLP techniques using human intervention between steps 2 and 3 for control and validation. Since it heavily relies on linguistic knowledge it is not domain dependent which is a good feature for portability between the different fields of risk management application. The proposed methodology uses the ontology of the PRIMA1 project (supported by the European community) as a Generic Domain Ontology and populates it via an available corpus. A first validation of the approach is done through an experiment with Chemical Fact Sheets from Environmental Protection Agency2.

Exploring the cost-utility of stratified primary care management for low back pain compared with current best practice within risk-defined subgroups.

PubMed

Whitehurst, David G T; Bryan, Stirling; Lewis, Martyn; Hill, Jonathan; Hay, Elaine M

2012-11-01

Stratified management for low back pain according to patients' prognosis and matched care pathways has been shown to be an effective treatment approach in primary care. The aim of this within-trial study was to determine the economic implications of providing such an intervention, compared with non-stratified current best practice, within specific risk-defined subgroups (low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk). Within a cost-utility framework, the base-case analysis estimated the incremental healthcare cost per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY), using the EQ-5D to generate QALYs, for each risk-defined subgroup. Uncertainty was explored with cost-utility planes and acceptability curves. Sensitivity analyses were performed to consider alternative costing methodologies, including the assessment of societal loss relating to work absence and the incorporation of generic (ie, non-back pain) healthcare utilisation. The stratified management approach was a cost-effective treatment strategy compared with current best practice within each risk-defined subgroup, exhibiting dominance (greater benefit and lower costs) for medium-risk patients and acceptable incremental cost to utility ratios for low-risk and high-risk patients. The likelihood that stratified care provides a cost-effective use of resources exceeds 90% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £4000 (≈ 4500; $6500) per additional QALY for the medium-risk and high-risk groups. Patients receiving stratified care also reported fewer back pain-related days off work in all three subgroups. Compared with current best practice, stratified primary care management for low back pain provides a highly cost-effective use of resources across all risk-defined subgroups.

U.S. Geological Survey Methodology Development for Ecological Carbon Assessment and Monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Stackpoole, S.M.

2009-01-01

Ecological carbon sequestration refers to transfer and storage of atmospheric carbon in vegetation, soils, and aquatic environments to help offset the net increase from carbon emissions. Understanding capacities, associated opportunities, and risks of vegetated ecosystems to sequester carbon provides science information to support formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation, and land-management strategies. Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 mandates the Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and assess the capacity of our nation's ecosystems for ecological carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) flux mitigation. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) LandCarbon Project is responding to the Department of Interior's request to develop a methodology that meets specific EISA requirements.

Risk assessment guidance for Superfund: Volume 1 -- Human health evaluation manual. Supplement to Part A: Community involvement in Superfund risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1999-03-01

The purpose of the guidance document is to provide the site team--risk assessor, remedial project manager (RPM), and community involvement coordinator--with information to improve community involvement in the Superfund risk assessment process. Specifically, the document: provides suggestions for how Superfund staff and community members can work together during the early stages of Superfund cleanup; identifies where, within the framework of the human health risk assessment methodology, community input can augment and improve EPA`s estimates of exposure and risk; recommends questions the site team should ask the community; and illustrates why community involvement is valuable during the human health assessment atmore » Superfund sites.« less

The availability of public information for insurance risk decision-making in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Nigel; Gibbs, Mark; Chadwick, Ben; Foote, Matthew

2010-05-01

At present, there is a wealth of hazard and exposure data which cannot or is not being full used by risk modelling community. The reasons for this under-utilisation of data are many: restrictive and complex data policies and pricing, risks involved in information sharing, technological shortcomings, and variable resolution of data, particularly with catastrophe models only recently having been adjusted to consume high-resolution exposure data. There is therefore an urgent need for the development of common modelling practices and applications for climate and geo-hazard risk assessment, all of which would be highly relevant to public policy, disaster risk management and financial risk transfer communities. This paper will present a methodology to overcome these obstacles and to review the availability of hazard data at research institutions in a consistent format. Such a methodology would facilitate the collation of hazard and other auxiliary data, as well as present data within a geo-spatial framework suitable for public and commercial use. The methodology would also review the suitability of datasets and how these could be made more freely available in conjunction with other research institutions in order to present a consistent data standard. It is clear that an understanding of these different issues of data and data standards have significant ramifications when used in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment. Scrutinising the issue of data standards also allows the data to be evaluated and re-evaluated for its gaps, omissions, fitness, purpose, availability and precision. Not only would there be a quality check on data, but it would also help develop and fine-tune the tools used for decision-making and assessment of risk.

Self-Care Behaviors of African Americans Living with Heart Failure.

PubMed

Woda, Aimee; Haglund, Kristin; Belknap, Ruth Ann; Sebern, Margaret

2015-01-01

African Americans have a higher risk of developing heart failure (HF) than persons from other ethnic groups. Once diagnosed, they have lower rates of HF self-care and poorer health outcomes. Promoting engagement in HF self-care is amenable to change and represents an important way to improve the health of African Americans with HF. This study used a community-based participatory action research methodology called photovoice to explore the practice of HF self-care among low-income, urban, community dwelling African Americans. Using the photovoice methodology, themes emerged regarding self-care management and self-care maintenance.

Domestic Abuse and Child Contact: Positioning Children in the Decision-Making Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holt, Stephanie

2011-01-01

Drawing on a three-year Irish research study, this paper focuses on the decision-making process in child contact, specifically the assessment and management of risk of continuing abuse to young people previously exposed to domestic abuse. A mixed methodological approach involved the completion of survey questionnaires by 219 mothers and the…

Spare parts management for nuclear power generation facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scala, Natalie Michele

With deregulation, utilities in the power sector face a much more urgent imperative to emphasize cost efficiencies as compared to the days of regulation. One major opportunity for cost savings is through reductions in spare parts inventories. Most utilities are accustomed to carrying large volumes of expensive, relatively slow-moving parts because of a high degree of risk-averseness. This attitude towards risk is rooted in the days of regulation. Under regulation, companies recovered capital inventory costs by incorporating them into the base rate charged to their customers. In a deregulated environment, cost recovery is no longer guaranteed. Companies must therefore reexamine their risk profile and develop policies for spare parts inventory that are appropriate for a competitive business environment. This research studies the spare parts inventory management problem in the context of electric utilities, with a focus on nuclear power. It addresses three issues related to this problem: criticality, risk, and policy. With respect to criticality and risk, a methodology is presented that incorporates the use of influence diagrams and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A new method is developed for group aggregation in the AHP when Saaty and Vargas' (2007) dispersion test fails and decision makers are unwilling or unable to revise their judgments. With respect to policy, a quantitative model that ranks the importance of keeping a part in inventory and recommends a corresponding stocking policy through the use of numerical simulation is developed. This methodology and its corresponding models will enable utilities that have transitioned from a regulated to a deregulated environment become more competitive in their operations while maintaining safety and reliability standards. Furthermore, the methodology developed is general enough so that other utility plants, especially those in the nuclear sector, will be able to use this approach. In addition to regulated utilities, other industries, such as aerospace, and the military can also benefit from extensions to these models, as risk profiles and subsequent policies can be adjusted to align with the business environment in which each industry or company operates.

When it comes to securing patient health information from breaches, your best medicine is a dose of prevention: A cybersecurity risk assessment checklist.

PubMed

Blanke, Sandra J; McGrady, Elizabeth

2016-07-01

Health care stakeholders are concerned about the growing risk of protecting sensitive patient health information from breaches. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has identified cyber attacks as an emerging concern, and regulations such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act (HITECH) have increased security requirements and are enforcing compliance through stiff financial penalties. The purpose of this study is to describe health care breaches of protected information, analyze the hazards and vulnerabilities of reported breach cases, and prescribe best practices of managing risk through security controls and countermeasures. Prescriptive findings were used to construct a checklist tool to assess and monitor common risks. This research uses a case methodology to describe specific examples of the 3 major types of cyber breach hazards: portable device, insider, and physical breaches. We utilize a risk management framework to prescribe preventative actions that organizations can take to assess, analyze, and mitigate these risks. The health care sector has the largest number of reported breaches, with 3 major types: portable device, insider, and physical breaches. Analysis of actual cases indicates security gaps requiring prescriptive fixes based on "best practices." Our research culminates in a 25-item checklist that organizations can use to assess existing practices and identify security gaps requiring improvement. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.

This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalizedmore » cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.« less

Explosion and/or fire risk assessment methodology: a common approach, structured for underground coalmine environments / Metoda szacowania ryzyka wybuchu i pożarów: podejście ogólne, dostosowane do środowiska kopalni podziemnej

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioca, Ionel-Lucian; Moraru, Roland Iosif

2012-10-01

In order to meet statutory requirements concerning the workers health and safety, it is necessary for mine managers within Valea Jiului coal basin in Romania to address the potential for underground fires and explosions and their impact on the workforce and the mine ventilation systems. Highlighting the need for a unified and systematic approach of the specific risks, the authors are developing a general framework for fire/explosion risk assessment in gassy mines, based on the quantification of the likelihood of occurrence and gravity of the consequences of such undesired events and employing Root-Cause analysis method. It is emphasized that even a small fire should be regarded as being a major hazard from the point of view of explosion initiation, should a combustible atmosphere arise. The developed methodology, for the assessment of underground fire and explosion risks, is based on the known underground explosion hazards, fire engineering principles and fire test criteria for potentially combustible materials employed in mines.

Application of a health risk assessment model for cattle exposed to pesticides in contaminated drinking waters: A study case from the Pampas region, Argentina.

PubMed

Dubny, Sabrina; Peluso, Fabio; Masson, Ignacio; Othax, Natalia; González Castelain, José

2018-04-01

Using the USEPA methodology we estimated the probabilistic chronic risks for calves and adult cows due to pesticide exposure through oral intake of contaminated surface and ground waters in Tres Arroyos County (Argentina). Because published data on pesticide toxicity endpoints for cows are scarce, we used threshold levels based on interspecies extrapolation methods. The studied waters showed acceptable quality for cattle production since none of the pesticides were present at high-enough concentrations to potentially affect cow health. Moreover, ground waters had better quality than surface waters, with dieldrin and deltamethrin being the pesticides associated with the highest risk values in the former and the latter water compartments, respectively. Our study presents a novel use of the USEPA risk methodology proving it is useful for water quality evaluation in terms of pesticide toxicity for cattle production. This approach represents an alternative tool for water quality management in the absence of specific cattle pesticide regulatory limits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology to explore emergent behaviours of the interactions between water resources and ecosystem under a pluralistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Santos, Glenda; Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Höllermann, Britta; Taft, Linda; Almoradie, Adrian; Evers, Mariele

2018-06-01

Understanding the interactions between water resources and its social dimensions is crucial for an effective and sustainable water management. The identification of sensitive control variables and feedback loops of a specific human-hydro-scape can enhance the knowledge about the potential factors and/or agents leading to the current water resources and ecosystems situation, which in turn supports the decision-making process of desirable futures. Our study presents the utility of a system dynamics modeling approach for water management and decision-making for the case of a forest ecosystem under risk of wildfires. We use the pluralistic water research concept to explore different scenarios and simulate the emergent behaviour of water interception and net precipitation after a wildfire in a forest ecosystem. Through a case study, we illustrate the applicability of this new methodology.

Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

2010-12-01

Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

Remote sensing of Qatar nearshore habitats with perspectives for coastal management.

PubMed

Warren, Christopher; Dupont, Jennifer; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed; Hobeichi, Sanaa; Palandro, David; Purkis, Sam

2016-04-30

A framework is proposed for utilizing remote sensing and ground-truthing field data to map benthic habitats in the State of Qatar, with potential application across the Arabian Gulf. Ideally the methodology can be applied to optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of mapping the nearshore environment to identify sensitive habitats, monitor for change, and assist in management decisions. The framework is applied to a case study for northeastern Qatar with a key focus on identifying high sensitivity coral habitat. The study helps confirm the presence of known coral and provides detail on a region in the area of interest where corals have not been previously mapped. Challenges for the remote sensing methodology associated with natural heterogeneity of the physical and biological environment are addressed. Recommendations on the application of this approach to coastal environmental risk assessment and management planning are discussed as well as future opportunities for improvement of the framework. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Prioritization Tool to Identify the Public Health Risks of Wildlife Trade: The Case of Rodents from Latin America.

PubMed

Bueno, I; Smith, K M; Sampedro, F; Machalaba, C C; Karesh, W B; Travis, D A

2016-06-01

Wildlife trade (both formal and informal) is a potential driver of disease introduction and emergence. Legislative proposals aim to prevent these risks by banning wildlife imports, and creating 'white lists' of species that are cleared for importation. These approaches pose economic harm to the pet industry, and place substantial burden on importers and/or federal agencies to provide proof of low risk for importation of individual species. As a feasibility study, a risk prioritization tool was developed to rank the pathogens found in rodent species imported from Latin America into the United States with the highest risk of zoonotic consequence in the United States. Four formally traded species and 16 zoonotic pathogens were identified. Risk scores were based on the likelihood of pathogen release and human exposure, and the severity of the disease (consequences). Based on the methodology applied, three pathogens (Mycobacterium microti, Giardia spp. and Francisella tularensis) in one species (Cavia porcellus) were ranked as highest concern. The goal of this study was to present a methodological approach by which preliminary management resources can be allocated to the identified high-concern pathogen-species combinations when warranted. This tool can be expanded to other taxa and geographic locations to inform policy surrounding the wildlife trade. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Impact of agile methodologies on team capacity in automotive radio-navigation projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prostean, G.; Hutanu, A.; Volker, S.

2017-01-01

The development processes used in automotive radio-navigation projects are constantly under adaption pressure. While the software development models are based on automotive production processes, the integration of peripheral components into an automotive system will trigger a high number of requirement modifications. The use of traditional development models in automotive industry will bring team’s development capacity to its boundaries. The root cause lays in the inflexibility of actual processes and their adaption limits. This paper addresses a new project management approach for the development of radio-navigation projects. The understanding of weaknesses of current used models helped us in development and integration of agile methodologies in traditional development model structure. In the first part we focus on the change management methods to reduce request for change inflow. Established change management risk analysis processes enables the project management to judge the impact of a requirement change and also gives time to the project to implement some changes. However, in big automotive radio-navigation projects the saved time is not enough to implement the large amount of changes, which are submitted to the project. In the second phase of this paper we focus on increasing team capacity by integrating at critical project phases agile methodologies into the used traditional model. The overall objective of this paper is to prove the need of process adaption in order to solve project team capacity bottlenecks.

Exploring the effect of at-risk case management compensation on hospital pay-for-performance outcomes: tools for change.

PubMed

Granata, Randy L; Hamilton, Karen

2015-01-01

Acute care nurse case managers are charged with compliance oversight, managing throughput, and ensuring safe care transitions. Leveraging the roles of nurse case managers and social workers during care transitions translates into improved fiscal performance under the Affordable Care Act. This article aims to equip leaders in the field of case management with tools to facilitate the alignment of case management systems with hospital pay-for-performance measures. A quality improvement project was implemented at a hospital in south Alabama to examine the question: for acute care case managers, what is the effect of key performance indictors using an at-risk compensation model in comparison to past nonincentive models on hospital readmissions, lengths of stay, and patient satisfaction surrounding the discharge process. Inpatient acute care hospital. The implementation of an at-risk compensation model using key performance indicators, Lean Six Sigma methodology, and Creative Health Care Management's Relationship-Based Care framework demonstrated reduced length of stay, hospital readmissions, and improved patient experiences. Regulatory changes and new models of reimbursement in the acute care environment have created the perfect storm for case management leaders. Hospital fiscal performance is dependent on effective case management processes and the ability to optimize scarce resources. The quality improvement project aimed to further align case management systems and structures with hospital pay-for-performance measures. Tools for change were presented to assist leaders with the change acceleration process.

Socio-economic exposure to natural disasters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marin, Giovanni, E-mail: giovanni.marin@uniurb.it; IRCrES - CNR, Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth, Via Corti 12, 20133 - Milano; SEEDS, Ferrara

Even though the correct assessment of risks is a key aspect of the risk management analysis, we argue that limited effort has been devoted in the assessment of comprehensive measures of economic exposure at very low scale. For this reason, we aim at providing a series of suitable methodologies to provide a complete and detailed list of the exposure of economic activities to natural disasters. We use Input-Output models to provide information about several socio-economic variables, such as population density, employment density, firms' turnover and capital stock, that can be seen as direct and indirect socio-economic exposure to natural disasters.more » We then provide an application to the Italian context. These measures can be easily incorporated into risk assessment models to provide a clear picture of the disaster risk for local areas. - Highlights: • Ex ante assessment of economic exposure to disasters at very low geographical scale • Assessment of the cost of natural disasters in ex-post perspective • IO model and spatial autocorrelation to get information on socio-economic variables • Indicators supporting risk assessment and risk management models.« less

Integrated risk assessment and screening analysis of drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system.

PubMed

Sun, F; Chen, J; Tong, Q; Zeng, S

2007-01-01

Management of drinking water safety is changing towards an integrated risk assessment and risk management approach that includes all processes in a water supply system from catchment to consumers. However, given the large number of water supply systems in China and the cost of implementing such a risk assessment procedure, there is a necessity to first conduct a strategic screening analysis at a national level. An integrated methodology of risk assessment and screening analysis is thus proposed to evaluate drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system. The violation probability, indicating drinking water safety, is estimated at different locations of a water supply system in terms of permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, turbidity, residual chlorine and trihalomethanes. Critical parameters with respect to drinking water safety are then identified, based on which an index system is developed to prioritize conventional water supply systems in implementing a detailed risk assessment procedure. The evaluation results are represented as graphic check matrices for the concerned hazards in drinking water, from which the vulnerability of a conventional water supply system is characterized.

A methodology for the evaluation of program cost and schedule risk for the SEASAT program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abram, P.; Myers, D.

1976-01-01

An interactive computerized project management software package (RISKNET) is designed to analyze the effect of the risk involved in each specific activity on the results of the total SEASAT-A program. Both the time and the cost of each distinct activity can be modeled with an uncertainty interval so as to provide the project manager with not only the expected time and cost for the completion of the total program, but also with the expected range of costs corresponding to any desired level of significance. The nature of the SEASAT-A program is described. The capabilities of RISKNET and the implementation plan of a RISKNET analysis for the development of SEASAT-A are presented.

Testing Strategies and Methodologies for the Max Launch Abort System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaible, Dawn M.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was tasked to develop an alternate, tower-less launch abort system (LAS) as risk mitigation for the Orion Project. The successful pad abort flight demonstration test in July 2009 of the "Max" launch abort system (MLAS) provided data critical to the design of future LASs, while demonstrating the Agency s ability to rapidly design, build and fly full-scale hardware at minimal cost in a "virtual" work environment. Limited funding and an aggressive schedule presented a challenge for testing of the complex MLAS system. The successful pad abort flight demonstration test was attributed to the project s systems engineering and integration process, which included: a concise definition of, and an adherence to, flight test objectives; a solid operational concept; well defined performance requirements, and a test program tailored to reducing the highest flight test risks. The testing ranged from wind tunnel validation of computational fluid dynamic simulations to component ground tests of the highest risk subsystems. This paper provides an overview of the testing/risk management approach and methodologies used to understand and reduce the areas of highest risk - resulting in a successful flight demonstration test.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes using RAPID-N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2013-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires or explosions. For the reduction of Natech risk, one of the highest priority needs is the identification of Natech-prone areas and the systematic assessment of Natech risks. With hardly any Natech risk maps existing within the EU the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed a Natech risk analysis and mapping tool called RAPID-N, that estimates the overall risk of natural-hazard impact to industrial installations and its possible consequences. The results are presented as risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, RAPID-N focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. The RAPID-N methodology is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, use of fragility curves to determine damage probabilities of plant units for various damage states, and the calculation of spatial extent, severity, and probability of Natech events potentially triggered by the natural hazard. The methodology was implemented as a web-based risk assessment and mapping software tool which allows easy data entry, rapid local or regional risk assessment and mapping. RAPID-N features an innovative property estimation framework to calculate on-site natural hazard parameters, industrial plant and plant unit characteristics, and hazardous substance properties. Custom damage states and fragility curves can be defined for different types of plant units. Conditional relationships can be specified between damage states and Natech risk states, which describe probable Natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using a custom implementation of U.S. EPA's Risk Management Program (RMP) Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology. This custom implementation is based on the property estimation framework and allows the easy modification of model parameters and the substitution of equations with alternatives. RAPID-N can be applied at different stages of the Natech risk management process: It allows on the one hand the analysis of hypothetical Natech scenarios to prevent or prepare for a Natech accident by supporting land-use and emergency planning. On the other hand, once a natural disaster occurs RAPID-N can be used for rapidly locating facilities with potential Natech accident damage based on actual natural-hazard information. This provides a means to warn the population in the vicinity of the facilities in a timely manner. This presentation will introduce the specific features of RAPID-N and show the use of the tool by application to a case-study area.

Meteorological risks are drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vijver, Hans; Vanwindekens, Frédéric; de Frutos Cachorro, Julia; Verspecht, Ann; Planchon, Viviane; Buyse, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Agricultural crop production is to a great extent determined by weather conditions. The research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The methodology comprised five major parts: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual maxima of meteorological variables based on a location-, scale- and shape-parameter that determine the center of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in spatial temperature extremes, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was realised using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenology, a soil water balance and crop growth. 20-year return values for drought and waterlogging during different crop stages were related to arable yields. The method helped quantify agricultural production risks and rate both weather and crop-based agricultural insurance. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed on different layers of geo-information to include meteorology, soil-landscapes, crop cover and management. Vulnerability of agroecosystems was mapped based on rules set by experts' knowledge and implemented by Fuzzy Inference System modelling and Geographical Information System tools. The approach was applied for cropland vulnerability to heavy rain and grassland vulnerability to drought. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem was also determined by risk management which differed across sectors and farm types. A calibrated agro-economic model demonstrated a marked influence of climate adapted land allocation and crop management on individual utility. The "chain of risk" approach allowed for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risk types were quantified in terms of probability and distribution, and further distinguished according to production type. Examples of strategies and options were provided at field, farm and policy level using different modelling methods.

Nurse Managers' prerequisite for nursing development: a survey on pressure ulcers and contextual factors in hospital organizations.

PubMed

Gunningberg, Lena; Brudin, Lars; Idvall, Ewa

2010-09-01

To describe and compare pressure ulcer prevalence in two county councils and concurrently explore Nurse Managers' perspective of contextual factors in a hospital organization. Despite good knowledge about risk factors and prevention of pressure ulcers, the prevalence of pressure ulcers remains high. Nurse Managers' have a key role in implementing evidence-based practice. The present study included five hospitals in two Swedish county councils: county council A (non-university setting) and county council B (university setting). A pressure ulcer prevalence study was conducted according to the methodology developed by the European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel. The Nurse Managers' answered a (27-item) questionnaire on contextual factors. County council B had significantly less pressure ulcers grade (2-4) (7.7%) than county council A (11.3%). The Nurse Managers' assessed only two out of the 27 general contextual items significantly differently. Some significant differences were observed in ward organization. In county council B, the Nurse Managers' seemed more aware of prevention strategies compared with Nurse Managers' in county council A. The Nurse Managers' should take more responsibility to develop the prerequisite for quality improvement in nursing. Nursing outcomes (e.g. pressure ulcers) should be incorporated into national quality registries for benchmarking and Nurse Managers' competence in evidence-based practice and research methodology increased. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

2018-01-01

Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

Appraisal of systematic reviews on the management of peri-implant diseases with two methodological tools.

PubMed

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Monje, Alberto; Wasiak, Jason

2018-06-01

This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of two methodological instruments to appraise systematic reviews and to identify potential disagreements of systematic review authors regarding risk of bias (RoB) evaluation of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) included in systematic reviews on peri-implant diseases. We searched Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, PubMed Central, and Google Scholar for systematic reviews on peri-implant diseases published before July 11, 2017. Two authors independently evaluated the RoB and methodological quality of the systematic reviews by applying the Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews (ROBIS) tool and Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist, respectively. We assessed the RoB scores of the same RCTs published in different systematic reviews. Of the 32 systematic reviews identified, 23 reviews addressed the clinical topic of peri-implantitis. A high RoB was detected for most systematic reviews (n=25) using ROBIS, whilst five systematic reviews displayed low methodological quality by AMSTAR. Almost 30% of the RoB comparisons (for the same RCTs) had different RoB ratings across systematic reviews. The ROBIS tool appears to provide more conservative results than AMSTAR checklist. Considerable disagreement was found among systematic review authors rating the same RCT included in different systematic reviews. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk management in technovigilance: construction and validation of a medical-hospital product evaluation instrument.

PubMed

Kuwabara, Cleuza Catsue Takeda; Evora, Yolanda Dora Martinez; de Oliveira, Márcio Mattos Borges

2010-01-01

With the continuous incorporation of health technologies, hospital risk management should be implemented to systemize the monitoring of adverse effects, performing actions to control and eliminate their damage. As part of these actions, Technovigilance is active in the procedures of acquisition, use and quality control of health products and equipment. This study aimed to construct and validate an instrument to evaluate medical-hospital products. This is a quantitative, exploratory, longitudinal and methodological development study, based on the Six Sigma quality management model, which has as its principle basis the component stages of the DMAIC Cycle. For data collection and content validation, the Delphi technique was used with professionals from the Brazilian Sentinel Hospital Network. It was concluded that the instrument developed permitted the evaluation of the product, differentiating between the results of the tested brands, in line with the initial study goal of qualifying the evaluations performed.

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program

PubMed Central

WIEBE, DOUGLAS J.; HOLENA, DANIEL N.; DELGADO, M. KIT; McWILLIAMS, NATHAN; ALTENBURG, JULIET; CARR, BRENDAN G.

2018-01-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance. PMID:28541852

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program.

PubMed

Wiebe, Douglas J; Holena, Daniel N; Delgado, M Kit; McWilliams, Nathan; Altenburg, Juliet; Carr, Brendan G

2017-05-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance.

Geostatistical approach for assessing soil volumes requiring remediation: validation using lead-polluted soils underlying a former smelting works.

PubMed

Demougeot-Renard, Helene; De Fouquet, Chantal

2004-10-01

Assessing the volume of soil requiring remediation and the accuracy of this assessment constitutes an essential step in polluted site management. If this remediation volume is not properly assessed, misclassification may lead both to environmental risks (polluted soils may not be remediated) and financial risks (unexpected discovery of polluted soils may generate additional remediation costs). To minimize such risks, this paper proposes a geostatistical methodology based on stochastic simulations that allows the remediation volume and the uncertainty to be assessed using investigation data. The methodology thoroughly reproduces the conditions in which the soils are classified and extracted at the remediation stage. The validity of the approach is tested by applying it on the data collected during the investigation phase of a former lead smelting works and by comparing the results with the volume that has actually been remediated. This real remediated volume was composed of all the remediation units that were classified as polluted after systematic sampling and analysis during clean-up stage. The volume estimated from the 75 samples collected during site investigation slightly overestimates (5.3% relative error) the remediated volume deduced from 212 remediation units. Furthermore, the real volume falls within the range of uncertainty predicted using the proposed methodology.

Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

2010-10-01

Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

Application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard-assessment & management on the state of Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Rosendahl Appelquist, Lars; Balstrøm, Thomas

2015-04-01

This paper presents the application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management under a changing global climate on the state of Karnataka, India. The recently published methodology termed the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) is designed for local, regional and national hazard screening in areas with limited data availability, and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The application makes use of published geophysical data and remote sensing information and is showcasing how the CHW framework can be applied at a scale relevant for regional planning purposes. It uses a GIS approach to develop regional and sub-regional hazard maps as well as to produce relevant hazard risk data, and includes a discussion of uncertainties, limitations and management perspectives. The hazard assessment shows that 61 percent of Karnataka's coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard of erosion, making erosion the most prevalent coastal hazard. The hazards of flooding and salt water intrusion are also relatively widespread as 39 percent of Karnataka's coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard for both of these hazard types. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Balancing benefit and risk of medicines: a systematic review and classification of available methodologies.

PubMed

Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Hallgreen, Christine E; Wang, Nan; Callréus, Torbjörn; Genov, Georgy; Hirsch, Ian; Hobbiger, Stephen F; Hockley, Kimberley S; Luciani, Davide; Phillips, Lawrence D; Quartey, George; Sarac, Sinan B; Stoeckert, Isabelle; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Micaleff, Alain; Ashby, Deborah

2014-07-01

The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use. A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice. We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions. Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latimer, John A.

2009-01-01

This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

The Impact of Big Data on Chronic Disease Management.

PubMed

Bhardwaj, Niharika; Wodajo, Bezawit; Spano, Anthony; Neal, Symaron; Coustasse, Alberto

Population health management and specifically chronic disease management depend on the ability of providers to prevent development of high-cost and high-risk conditions such as diabetes, heart failure, and chronic respiratory diseases and to control them. The advent of big data analytics has potential to empower health care providers to make timely and truly evidence-based informed decisions to provide more effective and personalized treatment while reducing the costs of this care to patients. The goal of this study was to identify real-world health care applications of big data analytics to determine its effectiveness in both patient outcomes and the relief of financial burdens. The methodology for this study was a literature review utilizing 49 articles. Evidence of big data analytics being largely beneficial in the areas of risk prediction, diagnostic accuracy and patient outcome improvement, hospital readmission reduction, treatment guidance, and cost reduction was noted. Initial applications of big data analytics have proved useful in various phases of chronic disease management and could help reduce the chronic disease burden.

DE-CERTS: A Decision Support System for a Comparative Evaluation Method for Risk Management Methodologies and Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

iv III. THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS ..... ........ 15 A. INTRODUCTION ...... ................. 15 B. THE AHP PROCESS ...... ................ 16 C...INTRODUCTION ...... ................. 26 B. IMPLEMENTATION OF CERTS USING AHP ........ .. 27 1. Consistency ...... ................ 29 2. User Interface...the proposed technique into a Decision Support System. Expert Choice implements the Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ), an approach to multi- criteria

Development of a Statistical Validation Methodology for Fire Weather Indices

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Scott Goodrick; Tim Brown

2003-01-01

Fire managers and forecasters must have tools, such as fire indices, to summarize large amounts of complex information. These tools allow them to identify and plan for periods of elevated risk and/or wildfire potential. This need was once met using simple measures like relative humidity or maximum daily temperature (e.g., Gisborne, 1936) to describe fire weather, and...

A strategic approach for Water Safety Plans implementation in Portugal.

PubMed

Vieira, Jose M P

2011-03-01

Effective risk assessment and risk management approaches in public drinking water systems can benefit from a systematic process for hazards identification and effective management control based on the Water Safety Plan (WSP) concept. Good results from WSP development and implementation in a small number of Portuguese water utilities have shown that a more ambitious nationwide strategic approach to disseminate this methodology is needed. However, the establishment of strategic frameworks for systematic and organic scaling-up of WSP implementation at a national level requires major constraints to be overcome: lack of legislation and policies and the need for appropriate monitoring tools. This study presents a framework to inform future policy making by understanding the key constraints and needs related to institutional, organizational and research issues for WSP development and implementation in Portugal. This methodological contribution for WSP implementation can be replicated at a global scale. National health authorities and the Regulator may promote changes in legislation and policies. Independent global monitoring and benchmarking are adequate tools for measuring the progress over time and for comparing the performance of water utilities. Water utilities self-assessment must include performance improvement, operational monitoring and verification. Research and education and resources dissemination ensure knowledge acquisition and transfer.

Evaluation and selection of indicators for land degradation and desertification monitoring: methodological approach.

PubMed

Kosmas, C; Kairis, Or; Karavitis, Ch; Ritsema, C; Salvati, L; Acikalin, S; Alcala, M; Alfama, P; Atlhopheng, J; Barrera, J; Belgacem, A; Solé-Benet, A; Brito, J; Chaker, M; Chanda, R; Coelho, C; Darkoh, M; Diamantis, I; Ermolaeva, O; Fassouli, V; Fei, W; Feng, J; Fernandez, F; Ferreira, A; Gokceoglu, C; Gonzalez, D; Gungor, H; Hessel, R; Juying, J; Khatteli, H; Khitrov, N; Kounalaki, A; Laouina, A; Lollino, P; Lopes, M; Magole, L; Medina, L; Mendoza, M; Morais, P; Mulale, K; Ocakoglu, F; Ouessar, M; Ovalle, C; Perez, C; Perkins, J; Pliakas, F; Polemio, M; Pozo, A; Prat, C; Qinke, Y; Ramos, A; Ramos, J; Riquelme, J; Romanenkov, V; Rui, L; Santaloia, F; Sebego, R; Sghaier, M; Silva, N; Sizemskaya, M; Soares, J; Sonmez, H; Taamallah, H; Tezcan, L; Torri, D; Ungaro, F; Valente, S; de Vente, J; Zagal, E; Zeiliguer, A; Zhonging, W; Ziogas, A

2014-11-01

An approach to derive relationships for defining land degradation and desertification risk and developing appropriate tools for assessing the effectiveness of the various land management practices using indicators is presented in the present paper. In order to investigate which indicators are most effective in assessing the level of desertification risk, a total of 70 candidate indicators was selected providing information for the biophysical environment, socio-economic conditions, and land management characteristics. The indicators were defined in 1,672 field sites located in 17 study areas in the Mediterranean region, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Based on an existing geo-referenced database, classes were designated for each indicator and a sensitivity score to desertification was assigned to each class based on existing research. The obtained data were analyzed for the various processes of land degradation at farm level. The derived methodology was assessed using independent indicators, such as the measured soil erosion rate, and the organic matter content of the soil. Based on regression analyses, the collected indicator set can be reduced to a number of effective indicators ranging from 8 to 17 in the various processes of land degradation. Among the most important indicators identified as affecting land degradation and desertification risk were rain seasonality, slope gradient, plant cover, rate of land abandonment, land-use intensity, and the level of policy implementation.

Evaluation and Selection of Indicators for Land Degradation and Desertification Monitoring: Methodological Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmas, C.; Kairis, Or.; Karavitis, Ch.; Ritsema, C.; Salvati, L.; Acikalin, S.; Alcalá, M.; Alfama, P.; Atlhopheng, J.; Barrera, J.; Belgacem, A.; Solé-Benet, A.; Brito, J.; Chaker, M.; Chanda, R.; Coelho, C.; Darkoh, M.; Diamantis, I.; Ermolaeva, O.; Fassouli, V.; Fei, W.; Feng, J.; Fernandez, F.; Ferreira, A.; Gokceoglu, C.; Gonzalez, D.; Gungor, H.; Hessel, R.; Juying, J.; Khatteli, H.; Khitrov, N.; Kounalaki, A.; Laouina, A.; Lollino, P.; Lopes, M.; Magole, L.; Medina, L.; Mendoza, M.; Morais, P.; Mulale, K.; Ocakoglu, F.; Ouessar, M.; Ovalle, C.; Perez, C.; Perkins, J.; Pliakas, F.; Polemio, M.; Pozo, A.; Prat, C.; Qinke, Y.; Ramos, A.; Ramos, J.; Riquelme, J.; Romanenkov, V.; Rui, L.; Santaloia, F.; Sebego, R.; Sghaier, M.; Silva, N.; Sizemskaya, M.; Soares, J.; Sonmez, H.; Taamallah, H.; Tezcan, L.; Torri, D.; Ungaro, F.; Valente, S.; de Vente, J.; Zagal, E.; Zeiliguer, A.; Zhonging, W.; Ziogas, A.

2014-11-01

An approach to derive relationships for defining land degradation and desertification risk and developing appropriate tools for assessing the effectiveness of the various land management practices using indicators is presented in the present paper. In order to investigate which indicators are most effective in assessing the level of desertification risk, a total of 70 candidate indicators was selected providing information for the biophysical environment, socio-economic conditions, and land management characteristics. The indicators were defined in 1,672 field sites located in 17 study areas in the Mediterranean region, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Based on an existing geo-referenced database, classes were designated for each indicator and a sensitivity score to desertification was assigned to each class based on existing research. The obtained data were analyzed for the various processes of land degradation at farm level. The derived methodology was assessed using independent indicators, such as the measured soil erosion rate, and the organic matter content of the soil. Based on regression analyses, the collected indicator set can be reduced to a number of effective indicators ranging from 8 to 17 in the various processes of land degradation. Among the most important indicators identified as affecting land degradation and desertification risk were rain seasonality, slope gradient, plant cover, rate of land abandonment, land-use intensity, and the level of policy implementation.

The challenge of risk characterization: current practice and future directions.

PubMed Central

Gray, G M; Cohen, J T; Graham, J D

1993-01-01

Risk characterization is perhaps the most important part of risk assessment. As currently practiced, risk characterizations do not convey the degree of uncertainty in a risk estimate to risk managers, Congress, the press, and the public. Here, we use a framework put forth by an ad hoc study group of industry and government scientists and academics to critique the risk characterizations contained in two risks assessments of gasoline vapor. After discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each assessment's risk characterization, we detail an alternative approach that conveys estimates in the form of a probability distribution. The distributional approach can make use of all relevant scientific data and knowledge, including alternative data sets and all plausible mechanistic theories of carcinogenesis. As a result, this approach facilitates better public health decisions than current risk characterization procedures. We discuss methodological issues, as well as strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach. PMID:8020444

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the implementation of the RRA methodology. The main output of the analysis are climate risk products produced with the DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) and represented by GIS-based maps and statistics of hazard, exposure, physical and environmental vulnerability, risk and damage. These maps are useful to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders and decision makers, to allow the classification and prioritization of areas that are likely to be affected by climate change impacts more severely than others in the same region, and therefore to support the identification of suitable areas for infrastructure, economic activities and human settlements toward the development of regional adaptation plans. The climate risk products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.

Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

2001-01-01

This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, May 30-3 1, 2001. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in nondeterministic approaches, uncertainty management methodologies, reliability assessment and risk management techniques, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

Subsea release of oil from a riser: an ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Nazir, Muddassir; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Sadiq, Rehan

2008-10-01

This study illustrates a newly developed methodology, as a part of the U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework, to predict exposure concentrations in a marine environment due to underwater release of oil and gas. It combines the hydrodynamics of underwater blowout, weathering algorithms, and multimedia fate and transport to measure the exposure concentration. Naphthalene and methane are used as surrogate compounds for oil and gas, respectively. Uncertainties are accounted for in multimedia input parameters in the analysis. The 95th percentile of the exposure concentration (EC(95%)) is taken as the representative exposure concentration for the risk estimation. A bootstrapping method is utilized to characterize EC(95%) and associated uncertainty. The toxicity data of 19 species available in the literature are used to calculate the 5th percentile of the predicted no observed effect concentration (PNEC(5%)) by employing the bootstrapping method. The risk is characterized by transforming the risk quotient (RQ), which is the ratio of EC(95%) to PNEC(5%), into a cumulative risk distribution. This article describes a probabilistic basis for the ERA, which is essential from risk management and decision-making viewpoints. Two case studies of underwater oil and gas mixture release, and oil release with no gaseous mixture are used to show the systematic implementation of the methodology, elements of ERA, and the probabilistic method in assessing and characterizing the risk.

Guidelines on genetic evaluation and management of Lynch syndrome: a consensus statement by the US Multi-Society Task Force on colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Giardiello, Francis M; Allen, John I; Axilbund, Jennifer E; Boland, C Richard; Burke, Carol A; Burt, Randall W; Church, James M; Dominitz, Jason A; Johnson, David A; Kaltenbach, Tonya; Levin, Theodore R; Lieberman, David A; Robertson, Douglas J; Syngal, Sapna; Rex, Douglas K

2014-08-01

The Multi-Society Task Force, in collaboration with invited experts, developed guidelines to assist health care providers with the appropriate provision of genetic testing and management of patients at risk for and affected with Lynch syndrome as follows: Figure 1 provides a colorectal cancer risk assessment tool to screen individuals in the office or endoscopy setting; Figure 2 illustrates a strategy for universal screening for Lynch syndrome by tumor testing of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer; Figures 3-6 provide algorithms for genetic evaluation of affected and at-risk family members of pedigrees with Lynch syndrome; Table 10 provides guidelines for screening at-risk and affected persons with Lynch syndrome; and Table 12 lists the guidelines for the management of patients with Lynch syndrome. A detailed explanation of Lynch syndrome and the methodology utilized to derive these guidelines, as well as an explanation of, and supporting literature for, these guidelines are provided. Copyright © 2014 American Gastroenterological Association, American College of Gastroenterology, the American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons, and the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Industrial water resources management based on violation risk analysis of the total allowable target on wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Yue, Wencong; Cai, Yanpeng; Xu, Linyu; Yang, Zhifeng; Yin, Xin'An; Su, Meirong

2017-07-11

To improve the capabilities of conventional methodologies in facilitating industrial water allocation under uncertain conditions, an integrated approach was developed through the combination of operational research, uncertainty analysis, and violation risk analysis methods. The developed approach can (a) address complexities of industrial water resources management (IWRM) systems, (b) facilitate reflections of multiple uncertainties and risks of the system and incorporate them into a general optimization framework, and (c) manage robust actions for industrial productions in consideration of water supply capacity and wastewater discharging control. The developed method was then demonstrated in a water-stressed city (i.e., the City of Dalian), northeastern China. Three scenarios were proposed according to the city's industrial plans. The results indicated that in the planning year of 2020 (a) the production of civilian-used steel ships and machine-made paper & paperboard would reduce significantly, (b) violation risk of chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge under scenario 1 would be the most prominent, compared with those under scenarios 2 and 3, (c) the maximal total economic benefit under scenario 2 would be higher than the benefit under scenario 3, and (d) the production of rolling contact bearing, rail vehicles, and commercial vehicles would be promoted.

Proposal on How To Conduct a Biopharmaceutical Process Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as a Risk Assessment Tool.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Hartmut F; Hentschel, Norbert

2011-01-01

With the publication of the quality guideline ICH Q9 "Quality Risk Management" by the International Conference on Harmonization, risk management has already become a standard requirement during the life cycle of a pharmaceutical product. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to biopharmaceutical processes brings about some difficulties. The proposal presented here is intended to serve as a brief but nevertheless comprehensive and detailed guideline on how to conduct a biopharmaceutical process FMEA. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. The application for such a biopharmaceutical process FMEA is widespread. It can be useful whenever a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process is developed or scaled-up, or when it is transferred to a different manufacturing site. It may also be conducted during substantial optimization of an existing process or the development of a second-generation process. According to their resulting risk ratings, process parameters can be ranked for importance and important variables for process development, characterization, or validation can be identified. Health authorities around the world ask pharmaceutical companies to manage risk during development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. The so-called failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an established risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to pharmaceutical processes that use modern biotechnology (biopharmaceutical processes) brings about some difficulties, because those biopharmaceutical processes differ from processes in mechanical and electrical industries. The proposal presented here explains how a biopharmaceutical process FMEA can be conducted. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. With the help of this guideline, different details of the manufacturing process can be ranked according to their potential risks, and this can help pharmaceutical companies to identify aspects with high potential risks and to react accordingly to improve the safety of medicines.

Definition and applications of a versatile chemical pollution footprint methodology.

PubMed

Zijp, Michiel C; Posthuma, Leo; van de Meent, Dik

2014-09-16

Because of the great variety in behavior and modes of action of chemicals, impact assessment of multiple substances is complex, as is the communication of its results. Given calls for cumulative impact assessments, we developed a methodology that is aimed at expressing the expected cumulative impacts of mixtures of chemicals on aquatic ecosystems for a region and subsequently allows to present these results as a chemical pollution footprint, in short: a chemical footprint. Setting and using a boundary for chemical pollution is part of the methodology. Two case studies were executed to test and illustrate the methodology. The first case illustrates that the production and use of organic substances in Europe, judged with the European water volume, stays within the currently set policy boundaries for chemical pollution. The second case shows that the use of pesticides in Northwestern Europe, judged with the regional water volume, has exceeded the set boundaries, while showing a declining trend over time. The impact of mixtures of substances in the environment could be expressed as a chemical footprint, and the relative contribution of substances to that footprint could be evaluated. These features are a novel type of information to support risk management, by helping prioritization of management among chemicals and environmental compartments.

Measuring dynamics of household vulnerability in selected coastal megacities to inform transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkmann, J.; Solecki, W. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding conditions and dynamics of household vulnerability and risk is key for building community resilience. Two different methodological approaches of vulnerability, risk and resilience assessment for selected global megacities are presented to address this research issue. First, an indicator-based approach was executed to compare susceptibility, coping and adaptive capacities for Lagos, Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York, and Tokyo on a neighborhood by neighborhood scale. Second, a household survey that has been conducted in Kolkata, Lagos, and New York to explore specific features of susceptibility, risk management capacities and transformations within at risk neighborhoods. The results of both methods underscore the dynamics of vulnerability. Lessons learned for disaster risk management and urban planning are derived, particularly in terms of defining priorities for a more inclusive and resilient urban development, and transformative adaptation. The findings also provide opportunity to critically review the potential outcomes of the New Urban Agenda (outcome of UN-Habitat III). The research has been undertaken within a larger international research team in the Belmont funded project Transformation of Urban Coasts.

Legionella and risk management in hospitals-A bibliographic research methodology for people responsible for built environment and facility management.

PubMed

Leiblein, Thomas W; Tucker, Matthew; Ashall, Mal; Lee, Susanne B; Gollnisch, Carsten; Hofer, Susanne

2016-11-01

An ongoing research project investigates the roles and duties of persons responsible for the built environment with respect to risk management of water systems and Legionella prevention from a facility management's perspective. Our literature review provides an approach for selecting and analysing abstracts of initially 177 journal articles, subjected to certain topic-specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. Different decision strategies of either logic 'yes/no', Boolean operators 'OR' or 'AND' and decisions for single counts or cumulative counts of the identified three principal keywords 'Legionella', 'hospital' and 'water', were completed. A final list of ten principal reference articles from 29 journals was compiled. It suggests that the interconnected perspective of water systems, Legionella and hospitals seems to be underrepresented in the field of the built environment and facility management. The term 'stakeholder', which would refer to decision-makers, was not found more than once. Our result is a useful summary of established sources of information on environmental Legionella research. The results can be helpful for those new to the topic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data limitations to date. Conclusions include a brief discussion of subsequent uncertainty and risk analysis methodologies, and a commentary on present and future applications of QRA in the management of the public health risks associated with the presence of pathogenic microorganisms in the food supply.

Assessing the extent and use of risk analysis methodologies in Africa, using data derived from the Performance of Veterinary Services (PVS) Pathway.

PubMed

Bastiaensen, P; Abernethy, D; Etter, E

2017-04-01

African countries that wish to export are increasingly faced with import risk assessments from importing countries concerned about the sources of their imported goods. Other risk analysis methodologies and approaches are also employed, which focus on animal and human health within countries and communities. Based on an analysis of evaluations conducted by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), using the Performance of Veterinary Services Tool, the authors attempt to define current practice in Africa and degrees of compliance with the World Trade Organization Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures ('SPS Agreement') and OIE standards. To assist in this task, the authors also make use of a review of selected risk assessment reports. Results point to a lack of technical capacity and capability to conduct risk assessments in compliance with OIE standards (except in the case of three countries), ranging from an outright absence of any form of (documented) risk assessment and consecutive risk management decisions (level of advancement 1) to shortcomings in one or several aspects of the risk assessment process. This is confirmed by a number of case studies, half of which have been produced by international consultants. The major recommendations of this paper are i) to strengthen the human resources pool for conducting risk assessments and ii) to establish dedicated risk assessment units, with clear terms of reference, job descriptions and policies, procedures and protocols.

Management of nanomaterials safety in research environment.

PubMed

Groso, Amela; Petri-Fink, Alke; Magrez, Arnaud; Riediker, Michael; Meyer, Thierry

2010-12-10

Despite numerous discussions, workshops, reviews and reports about responsible development of nanotechnology, information describing health and environmental risk of engineered nanoparticles or nanomaterials is severely lacking and thus insufficient for completing rigorous risk assessment on their use. However, since preliminary scientific evaluations indicate that there are reasonable suspicions that activities involving nanomaterials might have damaging effects on human health; the precautionary principle must be applied. Public and private institutions as well as industries have the duty to adopt preventive and protective measures proportionate to the risk intensity and the desired level of protection. In this work, we present a practical, 'user-friendly' procedure for a university-wide safety and health management of nanomaterials, developed as a multi-stakeholder effort (government, accident insurance, researchers and experts for occupational safety and health). The process starts using a schematic decision tree that allows classifying the nano laboratory into three hazard classes similar to a control banding approach (from Nano 3--highest hazard to Nano1--lowest hazard). Classifying laboratories into risk classes would require considering actual or potential exposure to the nanomaterial as well as statistical data on health effects of exposure. Due to the fact that these data (as well as exposure limits for each individual material) are not available, risk classes could not be determined. For each hazard level we then provide a list of required risk mitigation measures (technical, organizational and personal). The target 'users' of this safety and health methodology are researchers and safety officers. They can rapidly access the precautionary hazard class of their activities and the corresponding adequate safety and health measures. We succeed in convincing scientist dealing with nano-activities that adequate safety measures and management are promoting innovation and discoveries by ensuring them a safe environment even in the case of very novel products. The proposed measures are not considered as constraints but as a support to their research. This methodology is being implemented at the Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne in over 100 research labs dealing with nanomaterials. It is our opinion that it would be useful to other research and academia institutions as well.

Management of nanomaterials safety in research environment

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Despite numerous discussions, workshops, reviews and reports about responsible development of nanotechnology, information describing health and environmental risk of engineered nanoparticles or nanomaterials is severely lacking and thus insufficient for completing rigorous risk assessment on their use. However, since preliminary scientific evaluations indicate that there are reasonable suspicions that activities involving nanomaterials might have damaging effects on human health; the precautionary principle must be applied. Public and private institutions as well as industries have the duty to adopt preventive and protective measures proportionate to the risk intensity and the desired level of protection. In this work, we present a practical, 'user-friendly' procedure for a university-wide safety and health management of nanomaterials, developed as a multi-stakeholder effort (government, accident insurance, researchers and experts for occupational safety and health). The process starts using a schematic decision tree that allows classifying the nano laboratory into three hazard classes similar to a control banding approach (from Nano 3 - highest hazard to Nano1 - lowest hazard). Classifying laboratories into risk classes would require considering actual or potential exposure to the nanomaterial as well as statistical data on health effects of exposure. Due to the fact that these data (as well as exposure limits for each individual material) are not available, risk classes could not be determined. For each hazard level we then provide a list of required risk mitigation measures (technical, organizational and personal). The target 'users' of this safety and health methodology are researchers and safety officers. They can rapidly access the precautionary hazard class of their activities and the corresponding adequate safety and health measures. We succeed in convincing scientist dealing with nano-activities that adequate safety measures and management are promoting innovation and discoveries by ensuring them a safe environment even in the case of very novel products. The proposed measures are not considered as constraints but as a support to their research. This methodology is being implemented at the Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne in over 100 research labs dealing with nanomaterials. It is our opinion that it would be useful to other research and academia institutions as well. PMID:21143952

Animal health surveillance applications: The interaction of science and management.

PubMed

Willeberg, Preben

2012-08-01

Animal health surveillance is an ever-evolving activity, since health- and risk-related policy and management decisions need to be backed by the best available scientific evidence and methodology. International organizations, trade partners, politicians, media and the public expect fast, understandable, up-to-date presentation and valid interpretation of animal disease data to support and document proper animal health management - in crises as well as in routine control applications. The delivery and application of surveillance information need to be further developed and optimized, and epidemiologists, risk managers, administrators and policy makers need to work together in order to secure progress. Promising new developments in areas such as risk-based surveillance, spatial presentation and analysis, and genomic epidemiology will be mentioned. Limitations and areas in need of further progress will be underlined, such as the general lack of a wide and open exchange of international animal disease surveillance data. During my more than 30 year career as a professor of Veterinary Epidemiology I had the good fortune of working in challenging environments with different eminent colleagues in different countries on a variety of animal health surveillance issues. My career change from professor to Chief Veterinary Officer (CVO) - "from science to application" - was caused by my desire to see for myself if and how well epidemiology would actually work to solve real-life problems as I had been telling my students for years that it would. Fortunately it worked for me! The job of a CVO is not that different from that of a professor of Veterinary Epidemiology; the underlying professional principles are the same. Every day I had to work from science, and base decisions and discussions on documented evidence - although sometimes the evidence was incomplete or data were simply lacking. A basic understanding of surveillance methodology is very useful for a CVO, since it provides a sound working platform not only for dealing with immediate questions when new or emerging disease situations arise, but also for more long-term activities, such as policy development, contingency planning and trade negotiations. Animal health issues, which emerged during my eight years as a CVO in Denmark from 1999 to 2007, will be used as examples, including BSE, FMD, HPAI and Trichinella testing. Emphasis will be placed on how science-based surveillance methodology and tools were developed, applied and documented. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management of contaminated marine marketable resources after oil and HNS spills in Europe.

PubMed

Cunha, Isabel; Neuparth, Teresa; Moreira, Susana; Santos, Miguel M; Reis-Henriques, Maria Armanda

2014-03-15

Different risk evaluation approaches have been used to face oil and hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) spills all over the world. To minimize health risks and mitigate economic losses due to a long term ban on the sale of sea products after a spill, it is essential to preemptively set risk evaluation criteria and standard methodologies based on previous experience and appropriate scientifically sound criteria. Standard methodologies are analyzed and proposed in order to improve the definition of criteria for reintegrating previously contaminated marine marketable resources into the commercialization chain in Europe. The criteria used in former spills for the closing of and lifting of bans on fisheries and harvesting are analyzed. European legislation was identified regarding food sampling, food chemical analysis and maximum levels of contaminants allowed in seafood, which ought to be incorporated in the standard methodologies for the evaluation of the decision criteria defined for oil and HNS spills in Europe. A decision flowchart is proposed that opens the current decision criteria to new material that may be incorporated in the decision process. Decision criteria are discussed and compared among countries and incidents. An a priori definition of risk criteria and an elaboration of action plans are proposed to speed up actions that will lead to prompt final decisions. These decisions, based on the best available scientific data and conducing to lift or ban economic activity, will tend to be better understood and respected by citizens. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A narrative method for analyzing transitions in urban water management: The case of the Miami-Dade Water and Sewer Department

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treuer, Galen; Koebele, Elizabeth; Deslatte, Aaron; Ernst, Kathleen; Garcia, Margaret; Manago, Kim

2017-01-01

Although the water management sector is often characterized as resistant to risk and change, urban areas across the United States are increasingly interested in creating opportunities to transition toward more sustainable water management practices. These transitions are complex and difficult to predict - the product of water managers acting in response to numerous biophysical, regulatory, political, and financial factors within institutional constraints. Gaining a better understanding of how these transitions occur is crucial for continuing to improve water management. This paper presents a replicable methodology for analyzing how urban water utilities transition toward sustainability. The method combines standardized quantitative measures of variables that influence transitions with contextual qualitative information about a utility's unique decision making context to produce structured, data-driven narratives. Data-narratives document the broader context, the utility's pretransition history, key events during an accelerated period of change, and the consequences of transition. Eventually, these narratives should be compared across cases to develop empirically-testable hypotheses about the drivers of and barriers to utility-level urban water management transition. The methodology is illustrated through the case of the Miami-Dade Water and Sewer Department (WASD) in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and its transition toward more sustainable water management in the 2000s, during which per capita water use declined, conservation measures were enacted, water rates increased, and climate adaptive planning became the new norm.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannicca, Dennis C.; Young, Dennis P.; Thadani, Suresh K.; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannicca, Dennis Christopher; Young, Daniel Paul; Suresh, Thadhani; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

A simple methodology to produce flood risk maps consistent with FEMA's base flood elevation maps: Implementation and validation over the entire contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Katz, B. G.; Li, S.; Lohmann, D.

2011-12-01

In the United States, government agencies as well as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) use flood inundation maps associated with the 100-year return period (base flood elevation, BFE), produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as the basis for flood insurance. A credibility check of the flood risk hydraulic models, often employed by insurance companies, is their ability to reasonably reproduce FEMA's BFE maps. We present results from the implementation of a flood modeling methodology aimed towards reproducing FEMA's BFE maps at a very fine spatial resolution using a computationally parsimonious, yet robust, hydraulic model. The hydraulic model used in this study has two components: one for simulating flooding of the river channel and adjacent floodplain, and the other for simulating flooding in the remainder of the catchment. The first component is based on a 1-D wave propagation model, while the second component is based on a 2-D diffusive wave model. The 1-D component captures the flooding from large-scale river transport (including upstream effects), while the 2-D component captures the flooding from local rainfall. The study domain consists of the contiguous United States, hydrologically subdivided into catchments averaging about 500 km2 in area, at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. Using historical daily precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the precipitation associated with the 100-year return period event was computed for each catchment and was input to the hydraulic model. Flood extent from the FEMA BFE maps is reasonably replicated by the 1-D component of the model (riverine flooding). FEMA's BFE maps only represent the riverine flooding component and are unavailable for many regions of the USA. However, this modeling methodology (1-D and 2-D components together) covers the entire contiguous USA. This study is part of a larger modeling effort from Risk Management Solutions° (RMS) to estimate flood risk associated with extreme precipitation events in the USA. Towards this greater objective, state-of-the-art models of flood hazard and stochastic precipitation are being implemented over the contiguous United States. Results from the successful implementation of the modeling methodology will be presented.

A community based approach to improving resilience of forests and water resources: A local and regional climate adaptation methodology

Treesearch

Toby Thaler; Gwen Griffith; Nancy Gilliam

2014-01-01

Forest-based ecosystem services are at risk from human-caused stressors, including climate change. Improving governance and management of forests to reduce impacts and increase community resilience to all stressors is the objective of forest-related climate change adaptation. The Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) has applied one method designed to meet this objective...

A new approach to flood loss estimation and vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

2013-10-01

The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is proposed that studies the nature of vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide key findings and guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of key vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. This in turn facilitates the production of strategies for mitigating and managing the losses threatened by such extreme climate events.

[How to evaluate the application of Clinical Governance tools in the management of hospitalized hyperglycemic patients: results of a multicentric study].

PubMed

De Belvis, Antonio Giulio; Specchia, Maria Lucia; Ferriero, Anna Maria; Capizzi, Silvio

2017-01-01

Risk management is a key tool in Clinical Governance. Our project aimed to define, share, apply and measure the impact of tools and methodologies for the continuous improvement of quality of care, especially in relation to the multi-disciplinary and integrated management of the hyperglycemic patient in hospital settings. A training project, coordinated by a scientific board of experts in diabetes and health management and an Expert Meeting with representatives of all the participating centers was launched in 2014. The project involved eight hospitals through the organization of meetings with five managers and 25 speakers, including diabetologists, internists, pharmacists and nurses. The analysis showed a wide variability in the adoption of tools and processes towards a comprehensive and coordinated management of hyperglycemic patients.

eLearning for health system leadership and management capacity building: a protocol for a systematic review

PubMed Central

Tudor Car, Lorainne; Atun, Rifat

2017-01-01

Introduction Health leadership and management capacity are essential for health system strengthening and for attaining universal health coverage by optimising the existing human, technological and financial resources. However, in health systems, health leadership and management training is not widely available. The use of information technology for education (ie, eLearning) could help address this training gap by enabling flexible, efficient and scalable health leadership and management training. We present a protocol for a systematic review on the effectiveness of eLearning for health leadership and management capacity building in improving health system outcomes. Methodology and analysis We will follow the Cochrane Collaboration methodology. We will search for experimental studies focused on the use of any type of eLearning modality for health management and leadership capacity building in all types of health workforce cadres. The primary outcomes of interest will be health outcomes, financial risk protection and user satisfaction. In addition, secondary outcomes of interest include the attainment of health system objectives of improved equity, efficiency, effectiveness and responsiveness. We will search relevant databases of published and grey literature as well as clinical trials registries from 1990 onwards without language restrictions. Two review authors will screen references, extract data and perform risk of bias assessment independently. Contingent on the heterogeneity of the collated literature, we will perform either a meta-analysis or a narrative synthesis of the collated data. Ethics and dissemination The systematic review will aim to inform policy makers, investors, health professionals, technologists and educators about the existing evidence, potential gaps in literature and the impact of eLearning for health leadership and management capacity building on health system outcomes. We will disseminate the review findings by publishing it as a peer-reviewed journal manuscript and conference abstracts. Trial registration number PROSPERO CRD42017056998 PMID:28827265

A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

2015-04-01

Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the flood water, based on either measured waste water pathogen concentrations or on assumptions regarding the prevalence of infections in the population. The exposure (dosage) to pathogens was estimated by multiplying the concentration with literature values for the ingestion of water for different exposure groups (e.g. children, adults). The probability of infection was determined by applying dose response relations and MonteCarlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on two cases, i.e one case from a developing country with poor sanitation and one case from a developed country, where climate adaptation is the main issue: The risk of cholera in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh during a flood event 2004, and the risk of bacterial and viral infections of during a flood event in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2011. Results PIC The historical flood events in Dhaka (2004) and Copenhagen (2011) were successfully modelled. The urban flood model was successfully coupled to QMRA. An example of the results of the quantitative microbial risk assessment given as the average estimated risk of cholera infection for children below 5 years living in slum areas in Dhaka is shown in the figure. Similarly, the risk of infection during the flood event in Copenhagen will be presented in the article. Conclusions We have developed a methodology for the dynamic modeling of the risk of infection during waste water influenced urban flooding. The outcome of the modelling exercise indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a likely route of transmission of cholera in Dhaka, and bacterial and viral infectious diseases in Copenhagen. It demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City and Copenhagen.

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

PubMed

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new information into our assessments. MCDM techniques offer flexibility in accessing comparison within broad data sets to reflect our best estimation of their importance towards contribution to the risk picture. This allows for the accurate determination of the more probable and more consequential issues. This can later be refined using more intensive risk techniques and the avoidance of less critical issues.

A good practice guide for safe work with nanoparticles: The Quebec approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostiguy, C.; Roberge, B.; Ménard, L.; Endo, C. A.

2009-02-01

new industrial revolution has already begun around nanotechnologies, letting us anticipate major scientific breakthroughs that will affect each economic activity sector and whose expected global economic impacts will exceed 1000 billion annually by 2012. Simultaneously, many studies reveal that nanoparticles represent different occupational health and safety (OHS) risks unique to them and that often differ from the risks related to the same chemical substances with larger dimensions. As the number of potentially exposed workers increases and much uncertainty persists about OHS risks, this extended abstract proposes a framework for occupational risk management with the objective of controlling exposure to NPs in a context of a major lack of specific data related to the hazards of these substances and to the level of occupational exposure. The framework takes into consideration the equal representation of both the employers and workers in the Québec legislation and accounts the potential routes of exposure and focuses on a structured approach dealing with hazard identification, exposure characterization, risk assessment and risk management through different control methodologies. These are included in a prevention program that must be followed up, once it has been implemented, and refined through an iterative approach as new data become available.

Development of a system of indicators for sustainable port management.

PubMed

Peris-Mora, E; Diez Orejas, J M; Subirats, A; Ibáñez, S; Alvarez, P

2005-12-01

The 1998 project ECOPORT, "Towards A Sustainable Transport Network", developed by the Valencia Port Authority (VPA), established the bases for implementing an Environmental Management System (EMS) in industrial harbours. The use of data and information shall always be required to develop an efficient EMS. The objective of the present research (INDAPORT) study is to propose a system of sustainable environmental management indicators to be used by any port authorities. All activities performed within a port area are analysed for any potential environmental impacts and risks. An environmental analysis of port activities has been carried out with the objective of designing the indicators system. Twenty-one corresponding activities have been identified for large industrial ports. Subsequently, the same methodology developed to date will be later applied to other Spanish and European ports. The study has been developed by using an original system and a methodology, which simultaneously use stage diagrams and systemic models (material and energy flow charts). Multi-criteria analysis techniques were used to evaluate potential impacts (identification of factors and evaluation of impacts).

Evaluation of community pharmacists' preparedness for the provision of cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management services: A study with simulated patients in Qatar.

PubMed

Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Kheir, Nadir; Abdelsalam, Abdelsalam Gomaa

2018-04-28

Individuals who suffer from major cardiovascular events every year have one or more risk factors. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is an important strategy for the early identification of modifiable risk factors and their management. There is substantial evidence that shifting the focus from treatment to primary prevention reduces the burden of CVD. To evaluate the preparedness of community pharmacists in Qatar for the provision of CVD risk assessment and management services; and to explore the pharmacists' views on the provision of these services. A cross-sectional study using simulated-client methodology. Using standardized scenarios, community pharmacists were approached for consultation on two medicines (Aspirin ® and Crestor ® ) used for managing specific CVD risk factors. Pharmacists' competency to assess CVD risk was the primary outcome evaluated. Scores for each outcome were obtained based on the number of predefined statements addressed during the consultation. The mean cumulative score for all the competency outcomes assessed was 11.7 (SD 3.7) out of a possible score of 31. There were no differences for the majority of the competencies tested between the two scenarios used. Significantly more pharmacists exposed to the Aspirin ® scenario than to the Crestor ® scenario addressed hypertension as one of the risk factors needed to assess CVD risk (22% versus 11%, p = 0.03); whereas significantly more pharmacists in the Crestor ® scenario compared to the Aspirin ® scenario, addressed dyslipidemia as one of the risk factors needed to assess CVD risk (30% versus 7%, p = 0.02). Significantly more pharmacists exposed to the Aspirin ® scenario provided explanation about CVD risk than those exposed to the Crestor ® scenario 36% versus 8%, p < 0.01). The results suggest that many community pharmacists in Qatar are not displaying competencies that are necessary for the provision of CVD prevention services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

2017-04-01

Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible, reinsurance schemes, and incentives for risk reduction. The methodology tested by members of the Integrated Nucleus of River Basins (NIBH) (University of Sao Paulo (USP) School of Engineering of São Carlos (EESC) - Brazil) presents an alternative to the analysis and planning of insurance funds, aiming to mitigate the impacts of hydrological droughts and stream flash floods. The presented procedure is especially important when information relevant to studies and the development and implementation of insurance funds are difficult to access and of complex evaluation. A sequence of academic applications has been made in Brazil under the South American context, where the market of hydrological insurance has a low penetration compared to developed economies and insurance markets more established as the United States and Europe, producing relevant information and demonstrating the potential of the methodology in development.

Methodology of risk assessment of loss of water resources due to climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Israfilov, Yusif; Israfilov, Rauf; Guliyev, Hatam; Afandiyev, Galib

2016-04-01

For sustainable development and management of rational use of water resources of Azerbaijan Republic it is actual to forecast their changes taking into account different scenarios of climate changes and assessment of possible risks of loss of sections of water resources. The major part of the Azerbaijani territory is located in the arid climate and the vast majority of water is used in the national economic production. An optimal use of conditional groundwater and surface water is of great strategic importance for economy of the country in terms of lack of common water resources. Low annual rate of sediments, high evaporation and complex natural and hydrogeological conditions prevent sustainable formation of conditioned resources of ground and surface water. In addition, reserves of fresh water resources are not equally distributed throughout the Azerbaijani territory. The lack of the common water balance creates tension in the rational use of fresh water resources in various sectors of the national economy, especially in agriculture, and as a result, in food security of the republic. However, the fresh water resources of the republic have direct proportional dependence on climatic factors. 75-85% of the resources of ground stratum-pore water of piedmont plains and fracture-vein water of mountain regions are formed by the infiltration of rainfall and condensate water. Changes of climate parameters involve changes in the hydrological cycle of the hydrosphere and as a rule, are reflected on their resources. Forecasting changes of water resources of the hydrosphere with different scenarios of climate change in regional mathematical models allowed estimating the extent of their relationship and improving the quality of decisions. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to obtain additional data for risk assessment and management to reduce water resources for a detailed analysis, forecasting the quantitative and qualitative parameters of resources, and also for optimization the use of water resources. In this regard, we have developed the methodology of risk assessment including statistical fuzzy analysis of the relationship "probability-consequences", classification of probabilities, the consequences on degree of severity and risk. The current methodology allow providing the possibility of practical use of the obtained results and giving effectual help in the sustainable development and reduction of risk degree of optimal use of water resources of the republic and, as a consequence, the national strategy of economic development.

The need to implement the landscape of fear within rodent pest management strategies

PubMed Central

Belmain, Steven R; Singleton, Grant R; Groot Koerkamp, Peter WG; Meerburg, Bastiaan G

2017-01-01

Abstract Current reactive pest management methods have serious drawbacks such as the heavy reliance on chemicals, emerging genetic rodenticide resistance and high secondary exposure risks. Rodent control needs to be based on pest species ecology and ethology to facilitate the development of ecologically based rodent management (EBRM). An important aspect of EBRM is a strong understanding of rodent pest species ecology, behaviour and spatiotemporal factors. Gaining insight into the behaviour of pest species is a key aspect of EBRM. The landscape of fear (LOF) is a mapping of the spatial variation in the foraging cost arising from the risk of predation, and reflects the levels of fear a prey species perceives at different locations within its home range. In practice, the LOF maps habitat use as a result of perceived fear, which shows where bait or traps are most likely to be encountered and used by rodents. Several studies have linked perceived predation risk of foraging animals with quitting‐harvest rates or giving‐up densities (GUDs). GUDs have been used to reflect foraging behaviour strategies of predator avoidance, but to our knowledge very few papers have directly used GUDs in relation to pest management strategies. An opportunity for rodent control strategies lies in the integration of the LOF of rodents in EBRM methodologies. Rodent management could be more efficient and effective by concentrating on those areas where rodents perceive the least levels of predation risk. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:28556521

A Quantitative Examination of Critical Success Factors Comparing Agile and Waterfall Project Management Methodologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pedersen, Mitra

2013-01-01

This study investigated the rate of success for IT projects using agile and standard project management methodologies. Any successful project requires use of project methodology. Specifically, large projects require formal project management methodologies or models, which establish a blueprint of processes and project planning activities. This…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Almajali, Anas; Rice, Eric; Viswanathan, Arun

This paper presents a systems analysis approach to characterizing the risk of a Smart Grid to a load-drop attack. A characterization of the risk is necessary for the design of detection and remediation strategies to address the consequences of such attacks. Using concepts from systems health management and system engineering, this work (a) first identifies metrics that can be used to generate constraints for security features, and (b) lays out an end-to-end integrated methodology using separate network and power simulations to assess system risk. We demonstrate our approach by performing a systems-style analysis of a load-drop attack implemented over themore » AMI subsystem and targeted at destabilizing the underlying power grid.« less

Creating a framework for the prioritization of biosecurity risks to the New Zealand dairy industry.

PubMed

Muellner, P; Hodges, D; Ahlstrom, C; Newman, M; Davidson, R; Pfeiffer, D; Marshall, J; Morley, C

2018-03-25

The New Zealand dairy sector relies on robust biosecurity measures to control and mitigate a wide range of threats to the industry. To optimize the prioritization of organisms and manage the risk they pose to the sector in a transparent and credible way, the Dairy Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework (D-BRiEF) was developed. This comprehensive framework was specifically designed for decision support, using a standardized approach to address the full spectrum of biosecurity threats to the sector, including exotic and endemic animal disease organisms, pest plants and insects. D-BRiEF is underpinned by three main processes, namely (i) hazard identification; (ii) multicriteria risk assessment; and (iii) communication for risk management. Expert knowledge and empirical data, including associated uncertainty, are harnessed in a standardized format. Results feed into a probability-impact model that was developed in close collaboration with dairy sector economists to provide overall comparative 10-year quantitative economic impact estimates for each assessed risk organism. A description of the overarching framework, which applies to diverse organism groups, is presented with detailed methodology on both endemic and exotic animal disease risk organisms. Examples of visual outputs are included, although actual ranking results are not reported due to industry confidentiality. D-BRiEF can provide a decision advantage to DairyNZ biosecurity risk managers and sector stakeholders by creating a transparent process that can be interrogated and updated at multiple levels to fully understand the layers of risk posed by different organisms. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM) which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections) and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in South Africa, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

Comparing military and civilian critical thinking and information processes in operational risk management: what are the lessons?

PubMed

VanVactor, Jerry D; Gill, Tony

2010-03-01

Business continuity has expanded into a discipline that spans most functional areas of large enterprises. Both the military and financial sectors have consistently demonstrated an aptitude to expand the boundaries of continuity planning and crisis mitigation. A comparison of both enterprises is provided to see how their respective methodologies compare. Interestingly, the similarities far outweigh the differences. The paper provides commentary related to comparative insight from risk practitioners' perspectives from within the US Army, one of the largest military organisations in the world, and the Bank of Montreal, one of Canada's leading financial institutions.

The development of a streamlined, coordinated and sustainable evaluation methodology for a diverse chronic disease management program.

PubMed

Berlowitz, David J; Graco, Marnie

2010-05-01

The Northern Alliance Hospital Admission Risk Program-Chronic Disease Management comprises 13 services delivering care to those with chronic disease and older people with complex care needs, who are frequent hospital users. To develop and implement a system-wide approach to the evaluation of this existing program. The Northern Clinical Research Centre audited all existing, routinely collected administrative data within the program and then met with each service to develop service specific outcome measures. The evaluators then developed and implemented a system-wide evaluation approach to measure performance in terms of: client profile; access and entry; service efficiency; client outcomes; and hospital demand. Data are collected electronically and more than 80% are derived from existing, administrative datasets, minimising staff and client burden. Additional data include client outcomes and a health related quality of life measure. The preliminary twelve month data suggest that clients have the equivalent of 'fair' or 'poor' self-reported health status (n = 862) and the average health utility scores are significantly (P < 0.05) worse than population control data. These analyses reveal, for the first time, that the Northern Alliance Hospital Admission Risk Program-Chronic Disease Management program is targeting appropriate clients. This methodology will enable many prospective assessments to be performed including; client outcome evaluation, service model comparisons, and cost-utility analyses. This evaluation approach demonstrates the feasibility of a highly coordinated 'whole of system' evaluation. Such an approach may ultimately contribute to the development of evidence-based policy.

Using systems science for population health management in primary care.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Kong, Nan; Lawley, Mark A; Pagán, José A

2014-10-01

Population health management is becoming increasingly important to organizations managing and providing primary care services given ongoing changes in health care delivery and payment systems. The objective of this study is to show how systems science methodologies could be incorporated into population health management to compare different interventions and improve health outcomes. The New York Academy of Medicine Cardiovascular Health Simulation model (an agent-based model) and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to evaluate a lifestyle program that could be implemented in primary care practice settings. The program targeted Medicare-age adults and focused on improving diet and exercise and reducing weight. The simulation results suggest that there would be significant reductions projected in the proportion of the Medicare-age population with diabetes after the implementation of the proposed lifestyle program for a relatively long term (3 and 5 years). Similar results were found for the subpopulations with high cholesterol, but the proposed intervention would not have a significant effect in the proportion of the population with hypertension over a time period of <5 years. Systems science methodologies can be useful to compare the health outcomes of different interventions. These tools can become an important component of population health management because they can help managers and other decision makers evaluate alternative programs in primary care settings. © The Author(s) 2014.

The need to implement the landscape of fear within rodent pest management strategies.

PubMed

Krijger, Inge M; Belmain, Steven R; Singleton, Grant R; Groot Koerkamp, Peter Wg; Meerburg, Bastiaan G

2017-12-01

Current reactive pest management methods have serious drawbacks such as the heavy reliance on chemicals, emerging genetic rodenticide resistance and high secondary exposure risks. Rodent control needs to be based on pest species ecology and ethology to facilitate the development of ecologically based rodent management (EBRM). An important aspect of EBRM is a strong understanding of rodent pest species ecology, behaviour and spatiotemporal factors. Gaining insight into the behaviour of pest species is a key aspect of EBRM. The landscape of fear (LOF) is a mapping of the spatial variation in the foraging cost arising from the risk of predation, and reflects the levels of fear a prey species perceives at different locations within its home range. In practice, the LOF maps habitat use as a result of perceived fear, which shows where bait or traps are most likely to be encountered and used by rodents. Several studies have linked perceived predation risk of foraging animals with quitting-harvest rates or giving-up densities (GUDs). GUDs have been used to reflect foraging behaviour strategies of predator avoidance, but to our knowledge very few papers have directly used GUDs in relation to pest management strategies. An opportunity for rodent control strategies lies in the integration of the LOF of rodents in EBRM methodologies. Rodent management could be more efficient and effective by concentrating on those areas where rodents perceive the least levels of predation risk. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Small Wind Turbine Installation Compatibility Demonstration Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

was conducted for the Installation Technology Transfer Pro - gram. The project manager was Debbie Lawrence, US Army Engineer Re- search and Development...concerns (Rowley 2009). Though bases ban wind farms on or near DoD facilities when they are an- ticipated to be an unreasonable national security risk...related data collected by Fort Drum and a variety of other governmental agencies and private organizations. The pro - cess involved natural resources

The efficacy of a programme of landslide risk reduction in areas of unplanned housing in the Eastern Caribbean.

PubMed

Anderson, Malcolm G; Holcombe, Elizabeth; Esquivel, Maricarmen; Toro, Joaquin; Ghesquiere, Francis

2010-04-01

Poor countries are disproportionately affected by the cost of disasters. Yet there is evidence of the benefits of seeking to mitigate the impact of a disaster, compared with the costs incurred in 'making good' after a major event has occurred. This article reviews a programme of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Eastern Caribbean. The construction of appropriate surface water management measures, based on the application of scientific and engineering principles, has been demonstrated to reduce the hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides. Adopting a community-based approach additionally delivers social and environmental benefits relating to employment generation, improvements in the environmental conditions within the community, and improvements slope management practices. The sustained implementation of the community-based projects has provided the necessary evidence-base for these practices to influence Government policy and practice, and gain recognition from regional development agencies. The strategic and incremental uptake of the community-based methodology is demonstrated to be an effective means for delivering physical landslide risk reduction measures in the most 'at risk' areas of unplanned housing.

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

Knowledge management system for risk mitigation in supply chain uncertainty: case from automotive battery supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, I. A.; Sugiarto, D.; Surjasa, D.; Witonohadi, A.

2018-01-01

Automotive battery supply chain include battery manufacturer, sulphuric acid suppliers, polypropylene suppliers, lead suppliers, transportation service providers, warehouses, retailers and even customers. Due to the increasingly dynamic condition of the environment, supply chain actors were required to improve their ability to overcome various uncertainty issues in the environment. This paper aims to describe the process of designing a knowledge management system for risk mitigation in supply chain uncertainty. The design methodology began with the identification of the knowledge needed to solve the problems associated with uncertainty and analysis of system requirements. The design of the knowledge management system was described in the form of a data flow diagram. The results of the study indicated that key knowledge area that needs to be managed were the knowledge to maintain the stability of process in sulphuric acid process and knowledge to overcome the wastes in battery manufacturing process. The system was expected to be a media acquisition, dissemination and storage of knowledge associated with the uncertainty in the battery supply chain and increase the supply chain performance.

Towards reducing thrombogenicity of LVAD therapy: optimizing surgical and patient management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chivukula, Venkat Keshav; Lafzi, Ali; Mokadam, Nahush; Beckman, Jennifer; Mahr, Claudius; Aliseda, Alberto

2017-11-01

Unfavourable hemodynamics in heart failure patients implanted with left ventricular assist devices (LVAD), due to non-optimal surgical configurations and patient management, strongly influence thrombogenicity. This is consistent with the increase in devastating thromboembolic complications (specifically thrombosis and stroke) in patients, even as the risk of thrombosis inside the device decreases with modern designs. Inflow cannula and outflow graft surgical configurations have been optimized via patient-specific modeling that computes the thrombogenic potential with a combination of Eulerian (endothelial) wall shear stress and Lagrangian (platelet shear history) tracking. Using this view of hemodynamics, the benefits of intermittent aortic valve opening (promoting washout and reducing stagnant flow in the aortic valve region) have been assessed in managing the patient's residual native cardiac output. The use of this methodology to understand the contribution of the hemodynamics in the flow surrounding the LVAD itself to thrombogenesis show promise in developing holistic patient-specific management strategies to minimize stroke risk and enhance efficacy of LVAD therapy. Funded in part by an AHA postdoctoral fellowship 16POST30520004.

Technologies, diabetes and the student body.

PubMed

Balfe, Myles; Jackson, Peter

2007-12-01

This paper uses qualitative methodologies to understand young people's use of technology in the management of Type 1 diabetes. The paper begins by outlining the nature of Type 1 diabetes. We provide an account of recent debates on the consumption of health-care technologies. We consider the advantages of qualitative approaches for studying young people with diabetes. Our specific focus is on university students with diabetes who are commonly represented as having a lifestyle that is ill-suited to good management of the disease. We consider the pros and cons that these young people associate with their technologies, and the role that place plays in these young people's accounts. We argue that diabetes' management technologies provide these young people with the ability to discipline their bodies and position their identities as 'normal' students in student spaces, as well as to manage risks to their health and identities. However, we highlight that the use of these technologies, especially in public spaces such as student night-clubs and bars, poses risks for students with diabetes, for example, by highlighting their 'difference' from other students.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

PubMed

Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

2000-01-07

The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

Recruitment and treatment practices for help-seeking "prodromal" patients.

PubMed

McGlashan, Thomas H; Addington, Jean; Cannon, Tyrone; Heinimaa, Markus; McGorry, Patrick; O'Brien, Mary; Penn, David; Perkins, Diana; Salokangas, Raimo K R; Walsh, Barbara; Woods, Scott W; Yung, Alison

2007-05-01

The prodrome of psychosis has become a target for early identification and for treatments that address both symptoms and risk for future psychosis. Interest and activity in this realm is now worldwide. Clinical trials with rigorous methodology have only just begun, making treatment guidelines premature. Despite the sparse evidence base, treatments are currently applied to patients in the new prodromal clinics, usually treatments developed for established psychosis and modified for the prodromal phase. This communication will describe representative samplings of how treatment-seeking prodromal patients are currently recruited and treated in prodromal clinics worldwide. Recruitment includes how prodromal patients are sought, initially evaluated, apprised of their high-risk status, and informed of the risks and benefits of prodromal treatments and how their mental state is monitored over time. The treatment modalities offered (and described) include engagement, supportive therapy, case management, stress management, cognitive behavioral treatment, family-based treatment, antipsychotic pharmacotherapy, and non-antipsychotic pharmacotherapy. References for details are noted.

[Practical lessons from the risk management of an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis in a public school].

PubMed

Morillo-García, Aurea; Sillero-Sánchez, Rocío; Aldana-Espinal, Josefa María; Nieto-Cervera, Pilar

2005-01-01

We present our reflections on the management of an acute gastroenteritis outbreak in a public school, which caused a public health crisis, and the conclusions drawn from this experience. The methodology of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis was used. This article describes the epidemiology of the incident and the policy decisions made, but focuses on operational aspects of outbreak management. The experience of the outbreak control team, liaison with other organizations, and data management are discussed. The difficulties encountered by the outbreak team related to delay in declaring in the outbreak, lack of training in some of the entities involved, and incorrect use of the surveillance circuits. Current protocols and specific action plans for the management of outbreaks should be improved through self-evaluation and updating of resources and knowledge.

An Introduction to Flight Software Development: FSW Today, FSW 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gouvela, John

2004-01-01

Experience and knowledge gained from ongoing maintenance of Space Shuttle Flight Software and new development projects including Cockpit Avionics Upgrade are applied to projected needs of the National Space Exploration Vision through Spiral 2. Lessons learned from these current activities are applied to create a sustainable, reliable model for development of critical software to support Project Constellation. This presentation introduces the technologies, methodologies, and infrastructure needed to produce and sustain high quality software. It will propose what is needed to support a Vision for Space Exploration that places demands on the innovation and productivity needed to support future space exploration. The technologies in use today within FSW development include tools that provide requirements tracking, integrated change management, modeling and simulation software. Specific challenges that have been met include the introduction and integration of Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) Real Time Operating System for critical functions. Though technology prediction has proved to be imprecise, Project Constellation requirements will need continued integration of new technology with evolving methodologies and changing project infrastructure. Targets for continued technology investment are integrated health monitoring and management, self healing software, standard payload interfaces, autonomous operation, and improvements in training. Emulation of the target hardware will also allow significant streamlining of development and testing. The methodologies in use today for FSW development are object oriented UML design, iterative development using independent components, as well as rapid prototyping . In addition, Lean Six Sigma and CMMI play a critical role in the quality and efficiency of the workforce processes. Over the next six years, we expect these methodologies to merge with other improvements into a consolidated office culture with all processes being guided by automated office assistants. The infrastructure in use today includes strict software development and configuration management procedures, including strong control of resource management and critical skills coverage. This will evolve to a fully integrated staff organization with efficient and effective communication throughout all levels guided by a Mission-Systems Architecture framework with focus on risk management and attention toward inevitable product obsolescence. This infrastructure of computing equipment, software and processes will itself be subject to technological change and need for management of change and improvement,

Health-care process improvement decisions: a systems perspective.

PubMed

Walley, Paul; Silvester, Kate; Mountford, Shaun

2006-01-01

The paper seeks to investigate decision-making processes within hospital improvement activity, to understand how performance measurement systems influence decisions and potentially lead to unsuccessful or unsustainable process changes. A longitudinal study over a 33-month period investigates key events, decisions and outcomes at one medium-sized hospital in the UK. Process improvement events are monitored using process control methods and by direct observation. The authors took a systems perspective of the health-care processes, ensuring that the impacts of decisions across the health-care supply chain were appropriately interpreted. The research uncovers the ways in which measurement systems disguise failed decisions and encourage managers to take a low-risk approach of "symptomatic relief" when trying to improve performance metrics. This prevents many managers from trying higher risk, sustainable process improvement changes. The behaviour of the health-care system is not understood by many managers and this leads to poor analysis of problem situations. Measurement using time-series methodologies, such as statistical process control are vital for a better understanding of the systems impact of changes. Senior managers must also be aware of the behavioural influence of similar performance measurement systems that discourage sustainable improvement. There is a risk that such experiences will tarnish the reputation of performance management as a discipline. Recommends process control measures as a way of creating an organization memory of how decisions affect performance--something that is currently lacking.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Predictive Modeling of Risk Associated with Temperature Extremes over Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.; Brazauskas, V.

2016-12-01

We build an extremely statistically accurate, essentially bias-free empirical emulator of atmospheric surface temperature and apply it for meteorological risk assessment over the domain of continental US. The resulting prediction scheme achieves an order-of-magnitude or larger gain of numerical efficiency compared with the schemes based on high-resolution dynamical atmospheric models, leading to unprecedented accuracy of the estimated risk distributions. The empirical model construction methodology is based on our earlier work, but is further modified to account for the influence of large-scale, global climate change on regional US weather and climate. The resulting estimates of the time-dependent, spatially extended probability of temperature extremes over the simulation period can be used as a risk management tool by insurance companies and regulatory governmental agencies.

Waste collection in developing countries - Tackling occupational safety and health hazards at their source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bleck, Daniela, E-mail: bleck.daniela@baua.bund.de; Wettberg, Wieland, E-mail: wettberg.wieland@baua.bund.de

2012-11-15

Waste management procedures in developing countries are associated with occupational safety and health risks. Gastro-intestinal infections, respiratory and skin diseases as well as muscular-skeletal problems and cutting injuries are commonly found among waste workers around the globe. In order to find efficient, sustainable solutions to reduce occupational risks of waste workers, a methodological risk assessment has to be performed and counteractive measures have to be developed according to an internationally acknowledged hierarchy. From a case study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia suggestions for the transferral of collected household waste into roadside containers are given. With construction of ramps to dump collectedmore » household waste straight into roadside containers and an adaptation of pushcarts and collection procedures, the risk is tackled at the source.« less

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

Validation of Predictors of Fall Events in Hospitalized Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Weed-Pfaff, Samantha H; Nutter, Benjamin; Bena, James F; Forney, Jennifer; Field, Rosemary; Szoka, Lynn; Karius, Diana; Akins, Patti; Colvin, Christina M; Albert, Nancy M

2016-10-01

A seven-item cancer-specific fall risk tool (Cleveland Clinic Capone-Albert [CC-CA] Fall Risk Score) was shown to have a strong concordance index for predicting falls; however, validation of the model is needed. The aims of this study were to validate that the CC-CA Fall Risk Score, made up of six factors, predicts falls in patients with cancer and to determine if the CC-CA Fall Risk Score performs better than the Morse Fall Tool. Using a prospective, comparative methodology, data were collected from electronic health records of patients hospitalized for cancer care in four hospitals. Risk factors from each tool were recorded, when applicable. Multivariable models were created to predict the probability of a fall. A concordance index for each fall tool was calculated. The CC-CA Fall Risk Score provided higher discrimination than the Morse Fall Tool in predicting fall events in patients hospitalized for cancer management.

Project management practices in engineering university

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirazitdinova, Y.; Dulzon, A.; Mueller, B.

2015-10-01

The article presents the analysis of usage of project management methodology in Tomsk Polytechnic University, in particular the experience with the course Project management which started 15 years ago. The article presents the discussion around advantages of project management methodology for engineering education and administration of the university in general and the problems impeding extensive implementation of this methodology in teaching, research and management in the university.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

Attitudes towards establishing a daily supervised school-based toothbrushing programme--determined by Q-sort methodology.

PubMed

Trubey, R J; Chestnutt, I G

2013-03-01

This study used Q-sort methodology to determine the views of staff involved in a national school-based daily toothbrushing programme. Q-methodology is a mixed-method approach in which participants are asked to sort a collection of statements according to degree of agreement with them. Factor analysis identified subgroups of like-minded participants and revealed areas of consensus and disagreement. 24 Community Dental Service staff managing or delivering the toothbrushing programme were asked to rank 49 statements derived from previous qualitative interviews. Varimax rotation produced a three-factor solution with five/six participants loading significantly into each group. Groups divided largely according to staff role: Factor 1, mainly support workers (assistants with no oral-health background); Factor 2, managers; and factor 3, oral health educators (dental nurses with teaching qualifications). As staff new to the area of oral-health, the views of support workers were of particular interest. Unlike others, this group saw Designed to Smile as a unique health promotion scheme and wanted to involve as many children as possible, regardless of oral-disease risk. Managers' perceptions of issues affecting the establishment of the programme differed from those staff in day-to-day contact with the 515 schools in which the toothbrushing took place. This study used a long established but little used technique to ascertain the commonality of views of staff These data may be of value not only in managing the current programme, but for anyone who may be considering developing such a toothbrushing scheme.

Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis: A Systematic Review of Speech-Language Pathology Management.

PubMed

Walton, Chloe; Conway, Erin; Blackshaw, Helen; Carding, Paul

2017-07-01

Dysphonia due to unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) can be characterized by hoarseness and weakness, resulting in a significant impact on patients' activity and participation. Voice therapy provided by a speech-language pathologist is designed to maximize vocal function and improve quality of life. The purpose of this paper is to systematically review literature surrounding the effectiveness of speech-language pathology intervention for the management of UVFP in adults. This is a systematic review. Electronic databases were searched using a range of key terms including dysphonia, vocal fold paralysis, and speech-language pathology. Eligible articles were extracted and reviewed by the authors for risk of bias, methodology, treatment efficacy, and clinical outcomes. Of the 3311 articles identified, 12 met the inclusion criteria: seven case series and five comparative studies. All 12 studies subjectively reported positive effects following the implementation of voice therapy for UVFP; however, the heterogeneity of participant characteristics, voice therapy, and voice outcome resulted in a low level of evidence. There is presently a lack of methodological rigor and clinical efficacy in the speech-language pathology management of dysphonia arising from UVFP in adults. Reasons for this reduced efficacy can be attributed to the following: (1) no standardized speech-language pathology intervention; (2) no consistency of assessment battery; (3) the variable etiology and clinical presentation of UVFP; and (4) inconsistent timing, frequency, and intensity of treatment. Further research is required to develop the evidence for the management of UVFP incorporating controlled treatment protocols and more rigorous clinical methodology. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Orbiter Window Hypervelocity Impact Strength Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Lynda R.

2011-01-01

When the Space Shuttle Orbiter incurs damage on its windowpane during flight from particles traveling at hypervelocity speeds, it produces a distinctive damage that reduces the overall strength of the pane. This damage has the potential to increase the risk associated with a safe return to Earth. Engineers at Boeing and NASA/JSC are called to Mission Control to evaluate the damage and provide an assessment on the risk to the crew. Historically, damages like these were categorized as "accepted risk" associated with manned spaceflight, and as long as the glass was intact, engineers gave a "go ahead" for entry for the Orbiter. Since the Columbia accident, managers have given more scrutiny to these assessments, and this has caused the Orbiter window engineers to capitalize on new methods of assessments for these damages. This presentation will describe the original methodology that was used to asses the damages, and introduce a philosophy new to the Shuttle program for assessing structural damage, reliability/risk-based engineering. The presentation will also present a new, recently adopted method for assessing the damage and providing management with a reasonable assessment on the realities of the risk to the crew and vehicle for return.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Impacts of Non-Native Grass Invasion on Fire Management at a Regional Scale

PubMed Central

Setterfield, Samantha A.; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A.; Douglas, Michael M.; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M.; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J.; Ferdinands, Keith B.

2013-01-01

Background Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. Methodology/Principal Findings We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha−1 in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha−1 resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the ‘severe’ category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies. PMID:23690917

Guidelines for overcoming hospital managerial challenges: a systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Crema, Maria; Verbano, Chiara

2013-01-01

Purpose The need to respond to accreditation institutes’ and patients’ requirements and to align health care results with increased medical knowledge is focusing greater attention on quality in health care. Different tools and techniques have been adopted to measure and manage quality, but clinical errors are still too numerous, suggesting that traditional quality improvement systems are unable to deal appropriately with hospital challenges. The purpose of this paper is to grasp the current tools, practices, and guidelines adopted in health care to improve quality and patient safety and create a base for future research on this young subject. Methods A systematic literature review was carried out. A search of academic databases, including papers that focus not only on lean management, but also on clinical errors and risk reduction, yielded 47 papers. The general characteristics of the selected papers were analyzed, and a content analysis was conducted. Results A variety of managerial techniques, tools, and practices are being adopted in health care, and traditional methodologies have to be integrated with the latest ones in order to reduce errors and ensure high quality and patient safety. As it has been demonstrated, these tools are useful not only for achieving efficiency objectives, but also for providing higher quality and patient safety. Critical indications and guidelines for successful implementation of new health managerial methodologies are provided and synthesized in an operative scheme useful for extending and deepening knowledge of these issues with further studies. Conclusion This research contributes to introducing a new theme in health care literature regarding the development of successful projects with both clinical risk management and health lean management objectives, and should address solutions for improving health care even in the current context of decreasing resources. PMID:24307833

Family Communication, Risk Perception and Cancer Knowledge of Young Adults from BRCA1/2 Families: a Systematic Review.

PubMed

Young, Alison L; Butow, Phyllis N; Vetsch, Janine; Quinn, Veronica F; Patenaude, Andrea F; Tucker, Katherine M; Wakefield, Claire E

2017-12-01

Understanding challenges in familial communication of cancer risk has informed genetic service delivery. Parent-child interactions have received considerable attention, but few studies focus on young adulthood experiences within BRCA1/2 families. Young adults are approaching, or at a life stage where awareness of hereditary cancer risk is vital for informed choice of risk management options. This review assesses family communication, risk perception and cancer knowledge held by 18-40 year old individuals who have a parent with a BRCA1/2 gene mutation or carry the gene mutation themselves. Thirteen papers met the inclusion criteria. One utilized a 'mixed methods' methodology and the remaining used a qualitative approach. Findings were synthesized into themes and reported narratively. In general, parents are communicating openly about genetic risk with young adult offspring, but there is evidence that some young adults are withholding information from their parents about their own test results. Risk perception is influenced by a family history of cancer, childbearing plans and health providers' advice. Misconceptions about genetic risk appear to be common and gaps in hereditary cancer knowledge are evident. It is unclear whether incorrect knowledge was passed from parents to offspring. Health providers need to provide developmentally appropriate services for emerging adults (18-25 years old), with particular support in navigating through risk management options.

An Approach for Implementation of Project Management Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Běrziša, Solvita; Grabis, Jānis

Project management is governed by project management methodologies, standards, and other regulatory requirements. This chapter proposes an approach for implementing and configuring project management information systems according to requirements defined by these methodologies. The approach uses a project management specification framework to describe project management methodologies in a standardized manner. This specification is used to automatically configure the project management information system by applying appropriate transformation mechanisms. Development of the standardized framework is based on analysis of typical project management concepts and process and existing XML-based representations of project management. A demonstration example of project management information system's configuration is provided.

Management of Service Projects in Support of Space Flight Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Love, J.

2009-01-01

Goal:To provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration . [HRP-47051] Specific Objectives: 1) Develop capabilities, necessary countermeasures, and technologies in support of human space exploration, focusing on mitigating the highest risks to human health and performance. 2) Define and improve human spaceflight medical, environmental, and human factors standards. 3) Develop technologies that serve to reduce medical and environmental risks, to reduce human systems resource requirements (mass, volume, power, data, etc.) and to ensure effective human-system integration across exploration systems. 4) Ensure maintenance of Agency core competencies necessary to enable risk reduction in the following areas: A. Space medicine B. Physiological and behavioral effects of long duration spaceflight on the human body C. Space environmental effects, including radiation, on human health and performance D. Space "human factors" [HRP-47051]. Service projects can form integral parts of research-based project-focused programs to provide specialized functions. Traditional/classic project management methodologies and agile approaches are not mutually exclusive paradigms. Agile strategies can be combined with traditional methods and applied in the management of service projects functioning in changing environments. Creative collaborations afford a mechanism for mitigation of constrained resource limitations.

The feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led chronic disease management interventions in primary care: An integrative review.

PubMed

Stephen, Catherine; McInnes, Susan; Halcomb, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

To explore the feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led chronic disease management and lifestyle risk factor reduction interventions in primary care (general practice/family practice). Growing international evidence suggests that interventions delivered by primary care nurses can assist in modifying lifestyle risk factors and managing chronic disease. To date, there has been limited exploration of the feasibility and acceptability of such interventions. Integrative review guided by the work of Whittemore and Knafl (). Database search of CINAHL, Medline and Web of Science was conducted to identify relevant literature published between 2000-2015. Papers were assessed for methodological quality and data abstracted before thematic analysis was undertaken. Eleven papers met the inclusion criteria. Analysis uncovered four themes: (1) facilitators of interventions; (2) barriers to interventions; (3) consumer satisfaction; and (4) primary care nurse role. Literature supports the feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led interventions in primary care for lifestyle risk factor modification. The ongoing sustainability of these interventions rests largely on organizational factors such as funding, educational pathways and professional support of the primary care nursing role. Further robust research around primary care nurse interventions is required to strengthen the evidence base. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A systematic critical review of epidemiological studies on public health concerns of municipal solid waste handling.

PubMed

Ncube, France; Ncube, Esper Jacobeth; Voyi, Kuku

2017-03-01

The ultimate aim of this review was to summarise the epidemiological evidence on the association between municipal solid waste management operations and health risks to populations residing near landfills and incinerators, waste workers and recyclers. To accomplish this, the sub-aims of this review article were to (1) examine the health risks posed by municipal solid waste management activities, (2) determine the strengths and gaps of available literature on health risks from municipal waste management operations and (3) suggest possible research needs for future studies. The article reviewed epidemiological literature on public health concerns of municipal solid waste handling published in the period 1995-2014. The PubMed and MEDLINE computerised literature searches were employed to identify the relevant papers using the keywords solid waste, waste management, health risks, recycling, landfills and incinerators. Additionally, all references of potential papers were examined to determine more articles that met the inclusion criteria. A total of 379 papers were identified, but after intensive screening only 72 met the inclusion criteria and were reviewed. Of these studies, 33 were on adverse health effects in communities living near waste dumpsites or incinerators, 24 on municipal solid waste workers and 15 on informal waste recyclers. Reviewed studies were unable to demonstrate a causal or non-causal relationship due to various limitations. In light of the above findings, our review concludes that overall epidemiological evidence in reviewed articles is inadequate mainly due to methodological limitations and future research needs to develop tools capable of demonstrating causal or non-causal relationships between specific waste management operations and adverse health endpoints.

The application of quality risk management to the bacterial endotoxins test: use of hazard analysis and critical control points.

PubMed

Annalaura, Carducci; Giulia, Davini; Stefano, Ceccanti

2013-01-01

Risk analysis is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to manage production processes, validation activities, training, and other activities. Several methods of risk analysis are available (for example, failure mode and effects analysis, fault tree analysis), and one or more should be chosen and adapted to the specific field where they will be applied. Among the methods available, hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) is a methodology that has been applied since the 1960s, and whose areas of application have expanded over time from food to the pharmaceutical industry. It can be easily and successfully applied to several processes because its main feature is the identification, assessment, and control of hazards. It can be also integrated with other tools, such as fishbone diagram and flowcharting. The aim of this article is to show how HACCP can be used to manage an analytical process, propose how to conduct the necessary steps, and provide data templates necessary to document and useful to follow current good manufacturing practices. In the quality control process, risk analysis is a useful tool for enhancing the uniformity of technical choices and their documented rationale. Accordingly, it allows for more effective and economical laboratory management, is capable of increasing the reliability of analytical results, and enables auditors and authorities to better understand choices that have been made. The aim of this article is to show how hazard analysis and critical control points can be used to manage bacterial endotoxins testing and other analytical processes in a formal, clear, and detailed manner.

45 CFR 153.510 - Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology. 153.510 Section 153.510 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS....510 Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology. (a) General requirement. A QHP issuer must...

Software Risk Identification for Interplanetary Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, Robert J.; Papadopoulos, Periklis E.

2005-01-01

The need for a systematic and effective software risk identification methodology is critical for interplanetary probes that are using increasingly complex and critical software. Several probe failures are examined that suggest more attention and resources need to be dedicated to identifying software risks. The direct causes of these failures can often be traced to systemic problems in all phases of the software engineering process. These failures have lead to the development of a practical methodology to identify risks for interplanetary probes. The proposed methodology is based upon the tailoring of the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) method of taxonomy-based risk identification. The use of this methodology will ensure a more consistent and complete identification of software risks in these probes.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Downscaling catchment scale flood risk to contributing sub-catchments to determine the optimum location for flood management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattison, Ian; Lane, Stuart; Hardy, Richard; Reaney, Sim

2010-05-01

The recent increase in flood frequency and magnitude has been hypothesised to have been caused by either climate change or land management. Field scale studies have found that changing land management practices does affect local runoff and streamflow, but upscaling these effects to the catchment scale continues to be problematic, both conceptually and more importantly methodologically. The impact on downstream flood risk is highly dependent upon where the changes are in the catchment, indicating that some areas of the catchment are more important in determining downstream flood risk than others. This is a major flaw in the traditional approach to studying the effect of land use on downstream flood risk: catchment scale hydrological models, which treat every cell in the model equally. We are proposing an alternative ideological approach for doing flood management research, which is underpinned by downscaling the downstream effect (problem i.e. flooding) to the upstream causes (contributing sub-catchments). It is hoped that this approach could have several benefits over the traditional upscaling approach. Firstly, it provides an efficient method to prioritise areas for land use management changes to be implemented to reduce downstream flood risk. Secondly, targets for sub-catchment hydrograph change can be determined which will deliver the required downstream effect. Thirdly, it may be possible to detect the effect of land use changes in upstream areas on downstream flood risk, by weighting the areas of most importance in hydrological models. Two methods for doing this downscaling are proposed; 1) data-based statistical analysis; and 2) hydraulic modelling-based downscaling. These will be outlined using the case study of the River Eden, Cumbria, NW England. The data-based methodology uses the timing and magnitude of floods for each sub-catchment. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used to simplify sub-catchment interactions and optimising stepwise regression is used to predict downstream flood magnitude from the significant principal components. Two particular sub-catchments, the Eamont and the Upper Eden were highlighted as explaining the highest proportion of downstream flood risk, with 21.0% and 19.6% respectively. This approach uses the concept of data mining, whereby commonly available discharge data is used in an innovative way to learn about catchment behaviour. An alternative downscaling approach is hydraulic modelling whereby the input hydrographs from each tributary are changed in turn, both in terms of the magnitudes and the timing of the flows. This basic scenario testing approach can be used to assess the sensitivity of downstream flood risk to upstream contributing tributaries. This approach also highlighted the Upper Eden and Eamont as the most sensitive sub-catchments. A 25% reduction in the flows from these sub-catchments resulted in a 33.1cm and 21.9cm stage reduction downstream respectively, while an 8 hour delay of the peak flow caused a 32.3cm and 27.4cm decrease in downstream stage respectively. This alternative flood management approach is not a replacement to traditional hydrological modelling (upscaling), but a pre-step which allows for more focussed and informed investigation of land management scenarios, in the area where they are most likely to have beneficial impacts on downstream flooding.

Extreme risk assessment based on normalized historic loss data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichner, Jan

2017-04-01

Natural hazard risk assessment and risk management focuses on the expected loss magnitudes of rare and extreme events. Such large-scale loss events typically comprise all aspects of compound events and accumulate losses from multiple sectors (including knock-on effects). Utilizing Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE direct economic loss data, we beriefly recap a novel methodology of peril-specific loss data normalization which improves the stationarity properties of highly non-stationary historic loss data (due to socio-economic growth of assets prone to destructive forces), and perform extreme value analysis (peaks-over-threshold method) to come up with return level estimates of e.g. 100-yr loss event scenarios for various types of perils, globally or per continent, and discuss uncertainty in the results.

Tailored Communication Within Mobile Apps for Diabetes Self-Management: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Wahl, Astrid Klopstad; Cvancarova Småstuen, Milada; Ribu, Lis

2017-01-01

Background The prevalence of diabetes is increasing and with the requirements for self-management and risk of late complications, it remains a challenge for the individual and society. Patients can benefit from support from health care personnel in their self-management, and the traditional communication between patients and health care personnel is changing. Smartphones and apps offer a unique platform for communication, but apps with integrated health care personnel communication based on patient data are yet to be investigated to provide evidence of possible effects. Objective Our goal was to systematically review studies that aimed to evaluate integrated communication within mobile apps for tailored feedback between patients with diabetes and health care personnel in terms of (1) study characteristics, (2) functions, (3) study outcomes, (4) effects, and (5) methodological quality. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted following our International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) protocol, searching for apps with integrated communication for persons with diabetes tested in a controlled trial in the period 2008 to 2016. We searched the databases PubMed, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Central, Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. The search was closed in September 2016. Reference lists of primary articles and review papers were assessed. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed, and we applied the Cochrane risk of bias tool to assess methodological quality. Results We identified 2822 citations and after duplicate removal, we assessed 1128 citations. A total of 6 papers were included in this systematic review, reporting on data from 431 persons participating in small trials of short duration. The integrated communication features were mostly individualized as written non–real-time feedback. The number of functions varied from 2 to 9, and blood glucose tracking was the most common. HbA1c was the most common primary outcome, but the remaining reported outcomes were not standardized and comparable. Because of both the heterogeneity of the included trials and the poor methodological quality of the studies, a meta-analysis was not possible. A statistically significant improvement in the primary measure of outcome was found in 3 of the 6 included studies, of which 2 were HbA1c and 1 was mean daytime ambulatory blood pressure. Participants in the included trials reported positive usability or feasibility postintervention in 5 out of 6 trials. The overall methodological quality of the trials was, however, scored as an uncertain risk of bias. Conclusions This systematic review highlights the need for more trials of higher methodological quality. Few studies offer an integrated function for communication and feedback from health care personnel, and the research field represents an area of heterogeneity with few studies of highly rigorous methodological quality. This, in combination with a low number of participants and a short follow-up, is making it difficult to provide reliable evidence of effects for stakeholders. PMID:28645890

Visualizing diurnal population change in urban areas for emergency management.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Tetsuo; Medina, Richard M; Cova, Thomas J

2011-01-01

There is an increasing need for a quick, simple method to represent diurnal population change in metropolitan areas for effective emergency management and risk analysis. Many geographic studies rely on decennial U.S. Census data that assume that urban populations are static in space and time. This has obvious limitations in the context of dynamic geographic problems. The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes population data at the transportation analysis zone level in fifteen-minute increments. This level of spatial and temporal detail allows for improved dynamic population modeling. This article presents a methodology for visualizing and analyzing diurnal population change for metropolitan areas based on this readily available data. Areal interpolation within a geographic information system is used to create twenty-four (one per hour) population surfaces for the larger metropolitan area of Salt Lake County, Utah. The resulting surfaces represent diurnal population change for an average workday and are easily combined to produce an animation that illustrates population dynamics throughout the day. A case study of using the method to visualize population distributions in an emergency management context is provided using two scenarios: a chemical release and a dirty bomb in Salt Lake County. This methodology can be used to address a wide variety of problems in emergency management.

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Reducing risk for mother-to-infant transmission of hepatitis C virus: a systematic review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Cottrell, Erika Barth; Chou, Roger; Wasson, Ngoc; Rahman, Basmah; Guise, Jeanne-Marie

2013-01-15

Mother-to-infant transmission is the leading cause of childhood hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with up to 4000 new cases each year in the United States. To evaluate effects of mode of delivery, labor management strategies, and breastfeeding practices on risk for mother-to-infant transmission of HCV. MEDLINE (1947 to May 2012), the Cochrane Library Database, clinical trial registries, and reference lists. Randomized trials and observational studies on mode of delivery, labor management strategies, and breastfeeding practices and risk for mother-to-infant transmission of HCV. Investigators abstracted and reviewed study details and quality using predefined criteria. Eighteen observational studies evaluated the association between mode of delivery, labor management strategies, or breastfeeding practices and risk for mother-to-infant HCV transmission. Fourteen studies (2 good-quality, 4 fair-quality, and 8 poor-quality studies) found no clear association between mode of delivery (vaginal versus cesarean delivery) and risk for transmission. Two studies (1 good-quality and 1 poor-quality study) reported an association between prolonged duration of ruptured membranes and increased risk for transmission. Fourteen studies (2 good-quality, 2 fair-quality, and 10 poor-quality studies) found no association between breastfeeding and risk for transmission. Only English-language articles were included. Studies were observational, and most had important methodological shortcomings, including failure to adjust for potential confounders and small sample sizes. No intervention has been clearly demonstrated to reduce the risk for mother-to-infant HCV transmission. Avoidance of breastfeeding does not seem to be indicated for reducing transmission risk. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Risk assessments for exposure of deployed military personnel to insecticides and personal protective measures used for disease-vector management.

PubMed

Macedo, Paula A; Peterson, Robert K D; Davis, Ryan S

2007-10-01

Infectious diseases are problematic for deployed military forces throughout the world, and, historically, more military service days have been lost to insect-vectored diseases than to combat. Because of the limitations in efficacy and availability of both vaccines and therapeutic drugs, vector management often is the best tool that military personnel have against most vector-borne pathogens. However, the use of insecticides may raise concerns about the safety of their effects on the health of the military personnel exposed to them. Therefore, our objective was to use risk assessment methodologies to evaluate health risks to deployed U.S. military personnel from vector management tactics. Our conservative tier-1, quantitative risk assessment focused on acute, subchronic, and chronic exposures and cancer risks to military personnel after insecticide application and use of personal protective measures in different scenarios. Exposures were estimated for every scenario, chemical, and pathway. Acute, subchronic, and chronic risks were assessed using a margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Our MOE was the ratio of a no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) to an estimated exposure. MOEs were greater than the levels of concern (LOCs) for all surface residual and indoor space spraying exposures, except acute dermal exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin. MOEs were greater than the LOCs for all chemicals in the truck-mounted ultra-low-volume (ULV) exposure scenario. The aggregate cancer risk for permethrin exceeded 1 x 10(-6), but more realistic exposure refinements would reduce the cancer risk below that value. Overall, results indicate that health risks from exposures to insecticides and personal protective measures used by military personnel are low.

Ship Maintenance Processes with Collaborative Product Lifecycle Management and 3D Terrestrial Laser Scanning Tools: Reducing Costs and Increasing Productivity

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-20

optimal portfolio point on the efficient frontier, for example, Portfolio B on the chart in Figure A1. Then, by subsequently changing some of the ... optimized portfolio controlling for risk using the IRM methodology and tool suite. Results indicate that both rapid and incremental implementation...Results of the KVA and SD scenario analysis provided the financial information required to forecast an optimized

Most systematic reviews of high methodological quality on psoriasis interventions are classified as high risk of bias using ROBIS tool.

PubMed

Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesus; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Maestre-López, Beatriz; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro Jesús; González-Padilla, Marcelino; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

2017-12-01

No gold standard exists to assess methodological quality of systematic reviews (SRs). Although Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) is widely accepted for analyzing quality, the ROBIS instrument has recently been developed. This study aimed to compare the capacity of both instruments to capture the quality of SRs concerning psoriasis interventions. Systematic literature searches were undertaken on relevant databases. For each review, methodological quality and bias risk were evaluated using the AMSTAR and ROBIS tools. Descriptive and principal component analyses were conducted to describe similarities and discrepancies between both assessment tools. We classified 139 intervention SRs as displaying high/moderate/low methodological quality and as high/low risk of bias. A high risk of bias was detected for most SRs classified as displaying high or moderate methodological quality by AMSTAR. When comparing ROBIS result profiles, responses to domain 4 signaling questions showed the greatest differences between bias risk assessments, whereas domain 2 items showed the least. When considering SRs published about psoriasis, methodological quality remains suboptimal, and the risk of bias is elevated, even for SRs exhibiting high methodological quality. Furthermore, the AMSTAR and ROBIS tools may be considered as complementary when conducting quality assessment of SRs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2015-07-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - Portuguese Continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time. Shoreline risks can be computed in real-time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns, "hot spots" or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

A contemporary perspective on capitated reimbursement for imaging services.

PubMed

Schwartz, H W

1995-01-01

Capitation ensures predictability of healthcare costs, requires acceptance of a premium in return for providing all required medical services and defines the actual dollar amount paid to a physician or hospital on a per member per month basis for a service or group of services. Capitation is expected to dramatically affect the marketplace in the near future, as private enterprise demands lower, more stable healthcare costs. Capitation requires detailed quantitative and financial data, including: eligibility and benefits determination, encounter processing, referral management, claims processing, case management, physician compensation, insurance management functions, outcomes reporting, performance management and cost accounting. It is important to understand actuarial risk and capitation marketing when considering a capitation contract. Also, capitated payment methodologies may vary to include modified fee-for-service, incentive pay, risk pool redistributions, merit, or a combination. Risk is directly related to the ability to predict utilization and unit cost of imaging services provided to a specific insured population. In capitated environments, radiologists will have even less control over referrals than they have today and will serve many more "covered lives"; long-term relationships with referring physicians will continue to evaporate; and services will be provided under exclusive, multi-year contracts. In addition to intensified use of technology for image transfer, telecommunications and sophisticated data processing and tracking systems, imaging departments must continue to provide the greatest amount of appropriate diagnostic information in a timely fashion at the lowest feasible cost and risk to the patient.

Why are there gaps in our management of those with high cardiovascular risk?

PubMed

Doolan-Noble, Fiona; Tracey, Jocelyn; Mann, Stewart

2012-03-01

Multiple New Zealand and other international studies have identified gaps in the management of those identified at high risk of a future cardiovascular (CV) event. This study sought to explore the views of health professionals about the barriers and facilitators present within the current primary health care system to the optimal management of those at high CV risk. This qualitative study utilised a focus group methodology to examine the barriers and facilitators within primary health care (PHC), and employed a general inductive approach to analyse the text data. The analysis of text data resulted in the emergence of interrelated themes, underpinned by subthemes. The patient, their circumstances and their characteristics and perceptions provided the first key theme and subthemes. The next key theme was primary health care providers, with subthemes of communication and values and beliefs. The general practice was the third theme and included multiple subthemes: implementation planning and pathway development, time and workload and roles and responsibilities. The final main theme was the health system with the subthemes linking to funding and leadership. This study determined the factors that act as barriers and facilitators to the effective management of those at high CV risk within the New Zealand PHC sector. General practice has a pivotal role in preventive health care, but to succeed there needs to be a refocusing of the PHC sector, requiring support from policy makers, District Health Boards and Primary Health Organisations, as well as those working in the sector.

Designing a spatial decision-support system to improve urban resilience to floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinzlef, Charlotte; Ganz, François; Becue, Vincent; Serre, Damien

2017-04-01

Since Hurricane Katrina (2005), the scientific-political-urban attention is focusing on urban resilience to floods. To prevent the recurrence of such a deadly and costly event ( 82 billion, Serre et al, 2014), experts began to question pre- and post- disaster management. Until now, managers and urban planners have been working on flood risk, according to the paradigm of prevention. However, following Katrina, a new approach was gradually integrated and the concept of resilience applied to urban areas (Serre, 2011). The resilience concept, used in ecology and defined by Holling (1973), refers to the ability of a system to keep its own variables despite changes and analyses the capacity of an (eco)system to tolerate disturbances without changing its state. To link it with flood risk management, this concept takes more into account water and would lead to technical, architectural, social, urban and political innovation (Serre et al, 2016). However, despite 12 years after Katrina, very few concrete actions have been made (Barroca and Serre, 2013). Based on this argument, and several abortive studies, we wish to re-address the operationalization of resilience by redefining its objectives and expectations. While in Europe some studies have been done to build up vulnerability indicators (Barroca et al, 2006; Opach et al, 2016; Wiréhn et al, 2016), few still talk about resilience. When some do (Folke et al, 2010; Lhomme et al, 2011; Nguyen et al, 2013; Suarez et al, 2016), they mainly speak about technical resilience without integrating social resilience. Our objective is thus to imagine a system facilitating the understanding of this concept, its integration in management and development policies. We started on the methodology of information systems, organized system for collection, organization, storage and communication of information, and more precisely on observatories, information systems using the methodology of observation. These last years, we assist to an increase of these observatories (Dolique, 2013), observatories which are focused on different fields as, risk observation (PACA regional risks observatory), environmental observation (Environmental virtual observatory), ecological observation (National ecological observatory), etc. Usually, an observatory focuses either on a scale (generally national or regional) or on a fact (risks, environment, energy, economy, etc) Our objective is to develop an observatory tested on the territory of Avignon, to design a tool for analyzing resilience according to indicators which would measure technical resilience (urban and suburban networks), urban resilience (buildings and critical infrastructures) and social resilience (knowledge of risk, memory of the disaster, perception of vulnerability). Our tool would be designed with the help of our socio-economic partner which is the city of Avignon, and would provide a clearer picture of the resilience for managers and inhabitants. It would be participatory and social insofar as, following the assessment of the existing resilience thanks to the indicators, it would be make the territory more resilient thanks to expert advices and participatory workshops for the inhabitants and managers.

Vessel traffic safety in busy waterways: A case study of accidents in western shenzhen port.

PubMed

Mou, J M; Chen, P F; He, Y X; Yip, Tsz Leung; Li, W H; Tang, J; Zhang, H Z

2016-08-03

Throughout the world, busy waterways near large ports witness heavy vessel traffic in recent decades. The waterways are characterized by high risk in terms of loss of life, property, and pollution to environment. To facilitate maritime safety management with satisfactory efficiency and efficacy, the authors propose a framework of safety indexes to evaluate the risk level in busy waterways according to the accident severity, fatality rate and special indicators of maritime transportation. The safety indexes consist of Safety Evaluation Index (SEI) and Safety Warning Index (SWI), and are derived from the proposed risk criteria of Chinese vessel traffic. As a case study, data on vessel traffic accidents reported in the Western Shenzhen Port, South China from 1995 to 2015 are analyzed. The actual risk level of this area during the period is calculated under the framework. The implementation of the safety indexes indicate that the risk criteria and safety indexes are practicable and effective for the vessel traffic management. The methodology based on long-term accident data can significantly support the risk analysis in the macroscopic perspective for busy ports and waterways, such that SWI can act as threshold to trigger actions, while SEI can act as an indicator to measure safety status. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seawater intrusion risk analysis under climate change conditions for the Gaza Strip aquifer (Palestine)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Lecca, Giuditta

2014-05-01

Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a major threat to coastal freshwater resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where this problem is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate groundwater resources management and with serious potential impacts from projected climate changes. A proper analysis and risk assessment that includes climate scenarios is essential for the design of water management measures to mitigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SWI. In this study a methodology for SWI risk analysis in coastal aquifers is developed and applied to the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in Palestine. The method is based on the origin-pathway-target model, evaluating the final value of SWI risk by applying the overlay principle to the hazard map (representing the origin of SWI), the vulnerability map (representing the pathway of groundwater flow) and the elements map (representing the target of SWI). Results indicate the important role of groundwater simulation in SWI risk assessment and illustrate how mitigation measures can be developed according to predefined criteria to arrive at quantifiable expected benefits. Keywords: Climate change, coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, risk analysis, simulation/optimization model. Acknowledgements. The study is partially funded by the project "Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB)", FP7-ENV-2009-1, GA 244151.

PRA and Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

2013-01-01

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

Application of a risk analysis method to different technologies for producing a monoclonal antibody employed in hepatitis B vaccine manufacturing.

PubMed

Milá, Lorely; Valdés, Rodolfo; Tamayo, Andrés; Padilla, Sigifredo; Ferro, Williams

2012-03-01

CB.Hep-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) is used for a recombinant Hepatitis B vaccine manufacturing, which is included in a worldwide vaccination program against Hepatitis B disease. The use of this mAb as immunoligand has been addressed into one of the most efficient steps of active pharmaceutical ingredient purification process. Regarding this, Quality Risk Management (QRM) provides an excellent framework for the risk management use in pharmaceutical manufacturing and quality decision-making applications. Consequently, this study sought applying a prospective risk analysis methodology Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) as QRM tool for analyzing different CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing technologies. As main conclusions FMEA was successfully used to assess risks associated with potential problems in CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing processes. The severity and occurrence of risks analysis evidenced that the percentage of very high severe risks ranged 31.0-38.7% of all risks and the huge majority of risks have a very low occurrence level (61.9-83.3%) in all assessed technologies. Finally, additive Risk Priority Number, was descending ordered as follow: transgenic plants (2636), ascites (2577), transgenic animals (2046) and hollow fiber bioreactors (1654), which also corroborated that in vitro technology, should be the technology of choice for CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing in terms of risks and mAb molecule quality. Copyright © 2011 The International Alliance for Biological Standardization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An agent based architecture for high-risk neonate management at neonatal intensive care unit.

PubMed

Malak, Jaleh Shoshtarian; Safdari, Reza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Nayeri, Fatemeh Sadat; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Farajollah, Seide Sedighe Seied

2018-01-01

In recent years, the use of new tools and technologies has decreased the neonatal mortality rate. Despite the positive effect of using these technologies, the decisions are complex and uncertain in critical conditions when the neonate is preterm or has a low birth weight or malformations. There is a need to automate the high-risk neonate management process by creating real-time and more precise decision support tools. To create a collaborative and real-time environment to manage neonates with critical conditions at the NICU (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit) and to overcome high-risk neonate management weaknesses by applying a multi agent based analysis and design methodology as a new solution for NICU management. This study was a basic research for medical informatics method development that was carried out in 2017. The requirement analysis was done by reviewing articles on NICU Decision Support Systems. PubMed, Science Direct, and IEEE databases were searched. Only English articles published after 1990 were included; also, a needs assessment was done by reviewing the extracted features and current processes at the NICU environment where the research was conducted. We analyzed the requirements and identified the main system roles (agents) and interactions by a comparative study of existing NICU decision support systems. The Universal Multi Agent Platform (UMAP) was applied to implement a prototype of our multi agent based high-risk neonate management architecture. Local environment agents interacted inside a container and each container interacted with external resources, including other NICU systems and consultation centers. In the NICU container, the main identified agents were reception, monitoring, NICU registry, and outcome prediction, which interacted with human agents including nurses and physicians. Managing patients at the NICU units requires online data collection, real-time collaboration, and management of many components. Multi agent systems are applied as a well-known solution for management, coordination, modeling, and control of NICU processes. We are currently working on an outcome prediction module using artificial intelligence techniques for neonatal mortality risk prediction. The full implementation of the proposed architecture and evaluation is considered the future work.

Conducting HIV Seroprevalence and Behavioral Epidemiology Risk Surveys (SABERS) Among Partner Military Populations.

PubMed

Macera, Caroline A; Ito, Stanley I; Hale, Braden R; Shaffer, Richard A; Thomas, Anne G; Dickieson, Janet

2017-01-01

Characterizing HIV infection and associated risk behaviors within military populations is critical for understanding the epidemic and informing prevention activities. However, the prevalence of HIV and related risk behaviors is often unknown. Further, militaries may not have the systems in place or the staff expertise to conduct HIV surveillance and risk behavior studies. The Department of Defense HIV/AIDS Prevention Program (DHAPP), funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and the US Department of Defense, provides technical assistance, management and administrative support for HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment for approximately 65 partner militaries. Collaborating with partner militaries in conducting Seroprevalence and Behavioral Epidemiology Risk Surveys (SABERS) and using the data to monitor the epidemic and inform activities is a key component of DHAPP. This paper describes the methodology used to plan, adapt, implement and report SABERS studies. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Safe teleradiology: information assurance as project planning methodology.

PubMed

Collmann, Jeff; Alaoui, Adil; Nguyen, Dan; Lindisch, David

2005-01-01

The Georgetown University Medical Center Department of Radiology used a tailored version of OCTAVE, a self-directed information security risk assessment method, to design a teleradiology system that complied with the regulation implementing the security provisions of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) of 1996. The system addressed threats to and vulnerabilities in the privacy and security of protected health information. By using OCTAVE, Georgetown identified the teleradiology program's critical assets, described threats to the assurance of those assets, developed and ran vulnerability scans of a system pilot, evaluated the consequences of security breaches, and developed a risk management plan to mitigate threats to program assets, thereby implementing good information assurance practices. This case study illustrates the basic point that prospective, comprehensive planning to protect the privacy and security of an information system strategically benefits program management as well as system security.

On the Risk Management and Auditing of SOA Based Business Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orriens, Bart; Heuvel, Willem-Jan V./D.; Papazoglou, Mike

SOA-enabled business processes stretch across many cooperating and coordinated systems, possibly crossing organizational boundaries, and technologies like XML and Web services are used for making system-to-system interactions commonplace. Business processes form the foundation for all organizations, and as such, are impacted by industry regulations. This requires organizations to review their business processes and ensure that they meet the compliance standards set forth in legislation. In this paper we sketch a SOA-based service risk management and auditing methodology including a compliance enforcement and verification system that assures verifiable business process compliance. This is done on the basis of a knowledge-based system that allows integration of internal control systems into business processes conform pre-defined compliance rules, monitor both the normal process behavior and those of the control systems during process execution, and log these behaviors to facilitate retrospective auditing.

The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) Approach to Reducing Risk of Flooding and Water Pollution in Farmed Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewett, Caspar J. M.; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark

2014-05-01

Intense farming plays a key role in contributing to problems such as increased flood risk, soil erosion and poor water quality. This means that there is great potential for agricultural practitioners to play a major part in reducing multiple risks through better land-use management. Greater understanding by farmers, land managers, practitioners and policy-makers of the ways in which farmed landscapes contribute to risks and the ways in which those risks might be mitigated can be an essential component in improving practice. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) approach involves the development of a range of visualization and communication tools to help compare the risks associated with different farming practices and explore options to manage runoff. DSMs are simple decision support systems intended for use by the non-expert which combine expert hydrological evidence with local knowledge of runoff patterns. They are developed through direct engagement with stakeholders, ensuring that the examples and language used makes sense to end-users. A key element of the tools is that they show the current conditions of the land and describe extremes of land-use management within a hydrological and agricultural land-management context. The tools include conceptual models of a series of pre-determined runoff scenarios, providing the end-user with a variety of potential land management practices and runoff management options. Visual examples of different farming practices are used to illustrate the impact of good and bad practice on specific problems such as nutrient export or risk of flooding. These show both how current conditions cause problems downstream and how systems are vulnerable to changes in climate and land-use intensification. The level of risk associated with a particular land management option is represented by a mapping on a two- or three-dimensional matrix. Interactive spreadsheet-based tools are developed in which multiple questions allow the user to explore different management options and see the impact of decisions plotted as a risk level on the DSM. They employ a ranking methodology combined with a simple mapping of information onto a visual matrix. A nominal scoring system is used to rank higher or lower runoff risk. The end-user can then assess numerous land use and runoff management options to lower risk. The objective is to encourage policy makers, catchment managers and farmers to produce resilient local landscapes at minimal cost. A number of DSMs have been developed successfully over a number of years working with a variety of stakeholders in the UK, including the Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM), The Nitrate Export Risk Matrix (NO3RM) and arable and livestock versions of the Floods and Agriculture Risk Matrix (FARM) (available from http://research.ncl.ac.uk/thefarm). Despite uncertainty, the tools do contribute to stakeholders having greater confidence in making decisions to make landscapes more resilient. DSMs have been taken up widely in the UK by bodies such as the Environment Agency and Defra, and have been successfully employed within wider decision support frameworks alongside modelling at multiple scales. Such tools could be used in similar farmed landscapes internationally.

Integrated cost-effectiveness analysis of agri-environmental measures for water quality.

PubMed

Balana, Bedru B; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Martin-Ortega, Julia; Dunn, Sarah

2015-09-15

This paper presents an application of integrated methodological approach for identifying cost-effective combinations of agri-environmental measures to achieve water quality targets. The methodological approach involves linking hydro-chemical modelling with economic costs of mitigation measures. The utility of the approach was explored for the River Dee catchment in North East Scotland, examining the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollutants. In-stream nitrate concentration was modelled using the STREAM-N and phosphorus using INCA-P model. Both models were first run for baseline conditions and then their effectiveness for changes in land management was simulated. Costs were based on farm income foregone, capital and operational expenditures. The costs and effects data were integrated using 'Risk Solver Platform' optimization in excel to produce the most cost-effective combination of measures by which target nutrient reductions could be attained at a minimum economic cost. The analysis identified different combination of measures as most cost-effective for the two pollutants. An important aspect of this paper is integration of model-based effectiveness estimates with economic cost of measures for cost-effectiveness analysis of land and water management options. The methodological approach developed is not limited to the two pollutants and the selected agri-environmental measures considered in the paper; the approach can be adapted to the cost-effectiveness analysis of any catchment-scale environmental management options. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin (Spain): A comprehensive and critical assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Mora, N.; Garrido, A.; Gil, M.

2012-04-01

Water scarcity and drought are particularly relevant phenomena in Spain, a country with a Mediterranean climate and intense pressure on existing water resources. Spain's drought management policies have evolved significantly over time, and today Spain is at the forefront of drought management and mitigation planning in Europe. However, drought management policies are not informed by comprehensive or accurate estimations of the socioeconomic impacts of drought, nor by the efficiency or efficacy of drought management and mitigation measures. Previous studies attempting to estimate on the impacts of drought are based on direct economic users of water, primarily irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Existing analyses do not take into consideration the impacts on other economic sectors, such as recreational uses, which have a growing importance from a socioeconomic perspective. Additionally, the intangible or non-market impacts (on social welfare and wellbeing and on the environment) are not considered or measured, although they can be significant. This paper presents the mid-point results of the PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin. The study gathers existing information on direct and indirect economic impacts of drought on different sectors, completing existing gaps and comparing the results of studies that use different methodologies. It also estimates the welfare losses resulting from domestic water use restrictions and environmental degradation as a result of the drought using a value transfer approach from results derived from value choice experiments developed for other Spanish and international river basins. Results indicate that there is a clear need to improve our knowledge of the direct and indirect impacts of drought and to devise simple methodological and institutional approaches that allow for more effective and harmonized information gathering. We propose more accurate and policy relevant methodological alternatives. In terms of the welfare and environmental impacts of drought, we use different and complementary approaches and discuss possible limitations of existing methodologies. In spite of these limitations, we argue that an improved knowledge of the risks and costs of extreme meteorological events will help inform and improve decision making for effective and cost-efficient risk mitigation practices. Comparing our results of the Ebro drought 2004-2008 with previous academic and official analyses reveals significant biases, resulting from impacts overestimation and from omitting non-market water uses, indirect effects and intangible effects.

A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Rolando

2003-01-01

The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

Use of raster-based data layers to model spatial variation of seismotectonic data in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R.

2009-07-01

Recent achievements in computer and information technology have provided the necessary tools to extend the application of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping from its traditional engineering use to many other applications. Examples for such applications are risk mitigation, disaster management, post disaster recovery planning and catastrophe loss estimation and risk management. Due to the lack of proper knowledge with regard to factors controlling seismic hazards, there are always uncertainties associated with all steps involved in developing and using seismic hazard models. While some of these uncertainties can be controlled by more accurate and reliable input data, the majority of the data and assumptions used in seismic hazard studies remain with high uncertainties that contribute to the uncertainty of the final results. In this paper a new methodology for the assessment of seismic hazard is described. The proposed approach provides practical facility for better capture of spatial variations of seismological and tectonic characteristics, which allows better treatment of their uncertainties. In the proposed approach, GIS raster-based data models are used in order to model geographical features in a cell-based system. The cell-based source model proposed in this paper provides a framework for implementing many geographically referenced seismotectonic factors into seismic hazard modelling. Examples for such components are seismic source boundaries, rupture geometry, seismic activity rate, focal depth and the choice of attenuation functions. The proposed methodology provides improvements in several aspects of the standard analytical tools currently being used for assessment and mapping of regional seismic hazard. The proposed methodology makes the best use of the recent advancements in computer technology in both software and hardware. The proposed approach is well structured to be implemented using conventional GIS tools.

A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

2010-05-01

In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet, multiple networks that innervate the city are particularly sensitive to flooding, through their structures and geographic constraints. Because societal functions are highly dependent on networked systems and the operability of these systems can be vulnerable to disasters, there is a need to understand how networked systems are resilient. That is why, considering that networks can be regarded as the "flood gateway" [Lhomme et al., 2009], we will focus on the resilience assessment of these critical networks before urban resilience assessment. The first part of this paper introduce resilience concept to well understand the importance of this concept to manage flood risk and of assessing this resilience. In a second part, this paper presents the use of safety methods to model network system dysfunctions during flood and then to produce resilience indicators. Finally it presents use of graph theory to assess adaptive capacity of these networks. These researches are the first steps toward the development of a GIS tool to optimize preparedness and recovery after a flood event.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the other hand, the resilience of the individual, the household, the community, is its adaptive capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize into a fully functioning system by anticipation, response, adaptation and recovery. A key contribution of GeoRisCA project is to assess the vulnerability to different geohazards by integrating geographic and time variability. This methodology takes into account the specificities highlighted at the regional and the local scale (urban sites). And it also considers that the vulnerability evolves with time, e.g. due to improved education, increased income, denser social networks and evolution of coping mechanisms. Using the above described methodology, one of the main objective of GeoRisCA is to developed vulnerability maps that, once associated with geohazards data, will provide decision making tools for existing preparedness and mitigation institutions.

Food and feed chemical contaminants in the European Union: Regulatory, scientific, and technical issues concerning chemical contaminants occurrence, risk assessment, and risk management in the European Union.

PubMed

Silano, Marco; Silano, Vittorio

2017-07-03

A priority of the European Union is the control of risks possibly associated with chemical contaminants in food and undesirable substances in feed. Following an initial chapter describing the main contaminants detected in food and undesirable substances in feed in the EU, their main sources and the factors which affect their occurrence, the present review focuses on the "continous call for data" procedure that is a very effective system in place at EFSA to make possible the exposure assessment of specific contaminants and undesirable substances. Risk assessment of contaminants in food atances in feed is carried currently in the European Union by the CONTAM Panel of EFSA according to well defined methodologies and in collaboration with competent international organizations and with Member States.

An overview of Quality Management System implementation in a research laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinéro-Demilly, Valérie; Charki, Abdérafi; Jeoffrion, Christine; Lyonnet, Barbara; O'Brien, Steve; Martin, Luc

2018-02-01

The aim of this paper is to show the advantages of implementing a Quality Management System (QMS) in a research laboratory in order to improve the management of risks specific to research programmes and to increase the reliability of results. This paper also presents experience gained from feedback following the implementation of the Quality process in a research laboratory at INRA, the French National Institute for Agronomic Research and details the various challenges encountered and solutions proposed to help achieve smoother adoption of a QMS process. The 7Ms (Management, Measurement, Manpower, Methods, Materials, Machinery, Mother-nature) methodology based on the Ishikawa `Fishbone' diagram is used to show the effectiveness of the actions considered by a QMS, which involve both the organization and the activities of the laboratory. Practical examples illustrate the benefits and improvements observed in the laboratory.

Managing In-House Development of a Campus-Wide Information System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shurville, Simon; Williams, John

2005-01-01

Purpose: To show how a combination of hard and soft project and change management methodologies guided successful in-house development of a campus-wide information system. Design/methodology/approach: A case study of the methodologies and management structures that guided the development is presented. Findings: Applying a combination of the…

Community-Based Disaster Management: A Lesson Learned From Community Emergency Response Management in Banyumas, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, A. Y.; Sariffuddin, S.

2018-02-01

This article aimed to review community-based disaster management in terms of its independent coordination and disaster management. Community resilience was tested during disaster emergency. While panic, the community is required to be viable and able to evacuate, manage logistic, collect data on damage and the victim, and coordinate with outsiders independently. The community in Gununglurah Village, Banyumas Regency which was hit by a landslide in 2015 provides a lesson learned about community based disaster management. This research used qualitative descriptive methodology with in-depth interview with 23 informants from the community, donor institution, village officers, and government officers. Through traditional and informal methods, the community implemented disaster management that was categorized into 3 mechanisms that were social, functional, and sequential mechanism. These mechanisms controlled different portion in which social mechanism holds the most important role in disaster management, then functional mechanism and sequential mechanism. Various community activities in the village equipped the community with organizational experience to manage logistic, human resource and other coordination. In 2007, in fact, there was vulnerability risk assessment done by the local government, which recommended efforts to be done by the community to reduce the disaster risk, yet it was not implemented. It was interesting to note that in spite of the independent disaster management there was a scientific assessment neglected. Based on this research, a new discussion on how to synchronize the endogenous knowledge with scientific modern knowledge was opened.

Scandinavian guidelines for initial management of minor and moderate head trauma in children.

PubMed

Astrand, Ramona; Rosenlund, Christina; Undén, Johan

2016-02-18

The management of minor and moderate head trauma in children differs widely between countries. Presently, there are no existing guidelines for management of these children in Scandinavia. The purpose of this study was to produce new evidence-based guidelines for the initial management of head trauma in the paediatric population in Scandinavia. The primary aim was to detect all children in need of neurosurgical intervention. Detection of any traumatic intracranial injury on CT scan was an important secondary aim. General methodology according to the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was used. Systematic evidence-based review was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology and based upon relevant clinical questions with respect to patient-important outcomes. Quality ratings of the included studies were performed using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 and Centre of Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM)-2 tools. Based upon the results, GRADE recommendations, a guideline, discharge instructions and in-hospital observation instructions were drafted. For elements with low evidence, a modified Delphi process was used for consensus, which included relevant clinical stakeholders. The guidelines include criteria for selecting children for CT scans, in-hospital observation or early discharge, and suggestions for monitoring routines and discharge advice for children and guardians. The guidelines separate mild head trauma patients into high-, medium- and low-risk categories, favouring observation for mild, low-risk patients as an attempt to reduce CT scans in children. We present new evidence and consensus based Scandinavian Neurotrauma Committee guidelines for initial management of minor and moderate head trauma in children. These guidelines should be validated before extensive clinical use and updated within four years due to rapid development of new diagnostic tools within paediatric neurotrauma.

Integrating automated support for a software management cycle into the TAME system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sunazuka, Toshihiko; Basili, Victor R.

1989-01-01

Software managers are interested in the quantitative management of software quality, cost and progress. An integrated software management methodology, which can be applied throughout the software life cycle for any number purposes, is required. The TAME (Tailoring A Measurement Environment) methodology is based on the improvement paradigm and the goal/question/metric (GQM) paradigm. This methodology helps generate a software engineering process and measurement environment based on the project characteristics. The SQMAR (software quality measurement and assurance technology) is a software quality metric system and methodology applied to the development processes. It is based on the feed forward control principle. Quality target setting is carried out before the plan-do-check-action activities are performed. These methodologies are integrated to realize goal oriented measurement, process control and visual management. A metric setting procedure based on the GQM paradigm, a management system called the software management cycle (SMC), and its application to a case study based on NASA/SEL data are discussed. The expected effects of SMC are quality improvement, managerial cost reduction, accumulation and reuse of experience, and a highly visual management reporting system.

Low Vision Rehabilitation, Age-Related Vision Loss, and Risk: A Critical Interpretive Synthesis

PubMed Central

Laliberte Rudman, Debbie; Egan, Mary Y.; McGrath, Colleen E.; Kessler, Dorothy; Gardner, Paula; King, Judy; Ceci, Christine

2016-01-01

Purpose: Given the centrality of risk in geriatric rehabilitation, it is critically important to attend to how conceptualizations of risk shape research, policies, and rehabilitation practices. This paper presents a critical interpretive synthesis (CIS) of literature addressing risk and low vision rehabilitation for older adults with age-related vision loss (ARVL) to identify key guiding assumptions regarding risk and discuss implications for what gets attended to, and not attended to, within research and rehabilitation. Design and Methods: This CIS combined guidelines proposed by Dixon-Woods and colleagues (2006—Conducting a critical interpretive synthesis of the literature on access to healthcare by vulnerable groups. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 6, 35) and Alvesson and Sandberg (2011—Generating research questions through problematization. Academy of Management Review, 36, 247–271; 2013—Constructing research questions: Doing interesting research. London: Sage). The iterative review process involved 3 steps: literature search and selection, data extraction, and syntheses to identify boundary assumptions. The dataset included 83 research and practice description articles. Results: Older adults with ARVL were constructed as “at risk” for various adverse outcomes, particularly dependency and self-harm, and as posing risks to others. An epidemiological approach to risk based in assumptions aligned with a technico-scientific perspective was dominant, with risk conceptualized as an embodied, individual-level phenomenon that is to be determined and managed through objective screening and expert monitoring. Implications: Key concerns include a lack of: attention to the tensions created when rehabilitation research and practice attempt to promote independence while simultaneously reducing risk, incorporation of aging adults’ perspectives on risk, and analysis of environmental factors that shape risks. Research that starts by valuing older adults’ experiences and attends to context can inform rehabilitation practices that support health-promoting, risk-taking, and facilitate collaborative approaches to risk management. PMID:26888757

Towards health impact assessment of drinking-water privatization--the example of waterborne carcinogens in North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany).

PubMed Central

Fehr, Rainer; Mekel, Odile; Lacombe, Martin; Wolf, Ulrike

2003-01-01

Worldwide there is a tendency towards deregulation in many policy sectors - this, for example, includes liberalization and privatization of drinking-water management. However, concerns about the negative impacts this might have on human health call for prospective health impact assessment (HIA) on the management of drinking-water. On the basis of an established generic 10-step HIA procedure and on risk assessment methodology, this paper aims to produce quantitative estimates concerning health effects from increased exposure to carcinogens in drinking-water. Using data from North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany, probabilistic estimates of excess lifetime cancer risk, as well as estimates of additional cases of cancer from increased carcinogen exposure levels are presented. The results show how exposure to contaminants that are strictly within current limits could increase cancer risks and case-loads substantially. On the basis of the current analysis, we suggest that with uniform increases in pollutant levels, a single chemical (arsenic) is responsible for a large fraction of expected additional risk. The study also illustrates the uncertainty involved in predicting the health impacts of changes in water quality. Future analysis should include additional carcinogens, non-cancer risks including those due to microbial contamination, and the impacts of system failures and of illegal action, which may be increasingly likely to occur under changed management arrangements. If, in spite of concerns, water is privatized, it is particularly important to provide adequate surveillance of water quality. PMID:12894324

A review of the public health management of shigellosis in Australia in the era of culture-independent diagnostic testing.

PubMed

Tai, Alex Y C; Easton, Marion; Encena, Jess; Rotty, Jessica; Valcanis, Mary; Howden, Benjamin P; Slota-Kan, Simon; Gregory, Joy

2016-12-01

To review the national case definition for shigellosis following the introduction of culture independent diagnostic testing by clinical laboratories and provide evidence to reform jurisdictional public health practices for the management shigellosis., . A review of all Australian jurisdictional public health guidelines for shigellosis was conducted. Victorian 2014 shigellosis data were analysed: demographics and risk factors for cases identified by conventional culture or culture-independent diagnostic methods were described. There was considerable variation in reporting of cases to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) by the eight Australian jurisdictions, with an array of classifications based on diagnostic testing methodologies. Analysis of Victorian 2014 shigellosis data found that culture positive cases were more likely to have reported men who have sex with men (MSM) as a risk factor than PCR positive only cases (p<0.0001) and less likely to have reported overseas travel during their incubation period (p<0.0001). Over a 10-year period (2005 to 2014), only two of 86 cases who were employed in high-risk occupations had ongoing positive faecal cultures after appropriate treatment. The national surveillance case definition for shigellosis should be reviewed to facilitate standardised reporting across Australia. All jurisdictions must consider the public health significance of PCR positive only results in their surveillance risk assessments to inform management of shigellosis cases. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

PubMed

Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

2016-08-08

Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

An optimization-based approach for facility energy management with uncertainties, and, Power portfolio optimization in deregulated electricity markets with risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jun

Topic 1. An Optimization-Based Approach for Facility Energy Management with Uncertainties. Effective energy management for facilities is becoming increasingly important in view of the rising energy costs, the government mandate on the reduction of energy consumption, and the human comfort requirements. This part of dissertation presents a daily energy management formulation and the corresponding solution methodology for HVAC systems. The problem is to minimize the energy and demand costs through the control of HVAC units while satisfying human comfort, system dynamics, load limit constraints, and other requirements. The problem is difficult in view of the fact that the system is nonlinear, time-varying, building-dependent, and uncertain; and that the direct control of a large number of HVAC components is difficult. In this work, HVAC setpoints are the control variables developed on top of a Direct Digital Control (DDC) system. A method that combines Lagrangian relaxation, neural networks, stochastic dynamic programming, and heuristics is developed to predict the system dynamics and uncontrollable load, and to optimize the setpoints. Numerical testing and prototype implementation results show that our method can effectively reduce total costs, manage uncertainties, and shed the load, is computationally efficient. Furthermore, it is significantly better than existing methods. Topic 2. Power Portfolio Optimization in Deregulated Electricity Markets with Risk Management. In a deregulated electric power system, multiple markets of different time scales exist with various power supply instruments. A load serving entity (LSE) has multiple choices from these instruments to meet its load obligations. In view of the large amount of power involved, the complex market structure, risks in such volatile markets, stringent constraints to be satisfied, and the long time horizon, a power portfolio optimization problem is of critical importance but difficulty for an LSE to serve the load, maximize its profit, and manage risks. In this topic, a mid-term power portfolio optimization problem with risk management is presented. Key instruments are considered, risk terms based on semi-variances of spot market transactions are introduced, and penalties on load obligation violations are added to the objective function to improve algorithm convergence and constraint satisfaction. To overcome the inseparability of the resulting problem, a surrogate optimization framework is developed enabling a decomposition and coordination approach. Numerical testing results show that our method effectively provides decisions for various instruments to maximize profit, manage risks, and is computationally efficient.

The forgotten realm of the new and emerging psychosocial risk factors.

PubMed

Chirico, Francesco

2017-09-28

In Europe, employers of all private and public enterprises have a legal obligation to protect their employers by all the different types of workplace hazards to the safety and health of workers. The most important methods developed for the work-related stress risk assessment are based on the Cox's research commissioned by European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) and are the Management Standard HSE for work-related stress in United Kingdom, the START method in Germany, the Screening, Observation, Analysis, Expertise (SOBANE) in Belgium, and the National Institute for Prevention and Safety at Work (INAIL-ISPESL) model in Italy, the latter based on the British Management Standard. Unfortunately, the definition of "work-related stress" elaborated by EU-OSHA was criticized, because it is not completely equal to the broader "psychosocial risk," which includes new and emerging psychosocial risk factors, such as the combined exposure to physical and psychosocial risks, job insecurity, work intensification and high demands at work, high emotional load related to burnout, work-life balance problems, and violence and harassment at work. All these new emerging psychosocial hazards could require different and additional methodologies to save workers' health and safety. For this reason, the concept that stakeholders and policy makers should keep in mind in order to develop better national regulations and strategies is that work-related stress risk and psychosocial risk factors are not the same.

Patchwork diagnoses: the production of coherence, uncertainty, and manageable bodies.

PubMed

Gardner, John; Dew, Kevin; Stubbe, Maria; Dowell, Tony; Macdonald, Lindsay

2011-09-01

Using a material semiotics methodology, this paper explores the link between diagnostic practices, patient awareness of the body, and biopolitical governance. We collected video and audio recordings of a patient with chest pain involved in three medical interactions (a general practitioner [GP] consultation, an electrocardiogram stress test and a consultation with a cardiologist) in Wellington, New Zealand. Following the work of Annemarie Mol, we argue that each of these diagnostics interactions bring together a range of material and non-material entities that enact the body and disease. Consequently, we note how the diagnostic practices associated with cardiovascular medicine enable and prompt an awareness of the body based on uncertainty, and thus promotes the self-management of cardiac health and risk. This paper illustrates that a material semiotics methodology makes important contributions to the sociology of diagnosis. Firstly, it draws attention to the relationship between humans and material entities in rendering the body intelligible. Secondly, it illustrates that different diagnostic procedures can produce multiple, potentially conflicting, forms of self-awareness. Alongside these practices generating multiplicity, however, are those that presuppose and produce singularity and coherence. We illustrate how the cardiologist "patches" two potentially conflicting diagnoses together in order to provide a sense of coherence to the interactions. Thirdly, material semiotics illustrates how various diagnostic practices can reify risk, and produce bodies that lend themselves to particular forms of governance. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 2: Methodology and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.

1998-10-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality duringmore » the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3).« less

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

A methodology for assessing public health risk associated with groundwater nitrate contamination: a case study in an agricultural setting (southern Spain).

PubMed

Chica-Olmo, Mario; Peluso, Fabio; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Rivas, Lucía

2017-10-01

Groundwater nitrate contamination from agriculture is of paramount environmental interest. A continuous consumption of polluted water as drinking water or for culinary purposes is by no means a minor hazard for people's health that must be studied. This research presents a new methodology for the spatial analysis of health risk rate from intake of nitrate-polluted groundwater. The method is illustrated through its application to a water quality sampling campaign performed in the south of Spain in 2003. The probability risk model used by the US Environmental Protection Agency has been applied, considering a residential intake framework and three representative population age groups (10, 40 and 65 years).The method was based upon coupling Monte Carlo simulations and geostatistics, which allowed mapping of the health risk coefficient (RC). The maps obtained were interpreted in the framework of water resources management and user's health protection (municipalities). The results showed waterborne health risk caused by nitrate-polluted water is moderately low for the region. The observed risk was larger for the elderly and children, although no significant differences were found among the three age groups (RC average values of 95th percentile for age of 0.37, 0.33 and 0.37, respectively). Significant risk values of RC > 1 were obtained for 10 % of the surface in the NW site of the study area, where the municipalities with the highest contamination thresholds are located (agricultural activity). Nitrate concentration and intake rate stood out as the main explanatory variables of the RC.

Emerging contaminants: Presentations at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murnyak, George, E-mail: George.murnyak@us.army.mil; Vandenberg, John, E-mail: Vandenberg.John@epamail.epa.gov; Yaroschak, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.Yaroschak@osd.mil

2011-07-15

A session entitled 'Emerging Contaminants' was held in April 2009 in Cincinnati, OH at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference. The purpose of the session was to share information on both programmatic and technical aspects associated with emerging contaminants. Emerging contaminants are chemicals or materials that are characterized by a perceived or real threat to human health or environment, a lack of published health standards or an evolving standard. A contaminant may also be 'emerging' because of the discovery of a new source, a new pathway to humans, or a new detection method or technology. The session included fivemore » speakers representing the Department of Defense (DoD), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and each of the military services. The DoD created the Emerging Contaminant Directorate to proactively address environmental, health, and safety concerns associated with emerging contaminants. This session described the scan-watch-action list process, impact assessment methodology, and integrated risk management concept that DoD has implemented to manage emerging contaminants. EPA presented emerging trends in health risk assessment. Researchers made technical presentations on the status of some emerging contaminates in the assessment process (i.e. manganese, RDX, and naphthalene).« less

Methodology to Estimate the Quantity, Composition, and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report, Methodology to Estimate the Quantity, Composition and Management of Construction and Demolition Debris in the US, was developed to expand access to data on CDD in the US and to support research on CDD and sustainable materials management. Since past US EPA CDD estimates have been limited to building-related CDD, a goal in the development of this methodology was to use data originating from CDD facilities and contractors to better capture the current picture of total CDD management, including materials from roads, bridges and infrastructure. This report, Methodology to Estimate the Quantity, Composition and Management of Construction and Demolition Debris in the US, was developed to expand access to data on CDD in the US and to support research on CDD and sustainable materials management. Since past US EPA CDD estimates have been limited to building-related CDD, a goal in the development of this methodology was to use data originating from CDD facilities and contractors to better capture the current picture of total CDD management, including materials from roads, bridges and infrastructure.

Work design and management in the manufacturing sector: development and validation of the Work Organisation Assessment Questionnaire.

PubMed

Griffiths, A; Cox, T; Karanika, M; Khan, S; Tomás, J M

2006-10-01

To examine the factor structure, reliability, and validity of a new context-specific questionnaire for the assessment of work and organisational factors. The Work Organisation Assessment Questionnaire (WOAQ) was developed as part of a risk assessment and risk reduction methodology for hazards inherent in the design and management of work in the manufacturing sector. Two studies were conducted. Data were collected from 524 white- and blue-collar employees from a range of manufacturing companies. Exploratory factor analysis was carried out on 28 items that described the most commonly reported failures of work design and management in companies in the manufacturing sector. Concurrent validity data were also collected. A reliability study was conducted with a further 156 employees. Principal component analysis, with varimax rotation, revealed a strong 28-item, five factor structure. The factors were named: quality of relationships with management, reward and recognition, workload, quality of relationships with colleagues, and quality of physical environment. Analyses also revealed a more general summative factor. Results indicated that the questionnaire has good internal consistency and test-retest reliability and validity. Being associated with poor employee health and changes in health related behaviour, the WOAQ factors are possible hazards. It is argued that the strength of those associations offers some estimation of risk. Feedback from the organisations involved indicated that the WOAQ was easy to use and meaningful for them as part of their risk assessment procedures. The studies reported here describe a model of the hazards to employee health and health related behaviour inherent in the design and management of work in the manufacturing sector. It offers an instrument for their assessment. The scales derived which form the WOAQ were shown to be reliable, valid, and meaningful to the user population.

Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

PubMed

Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

2017-12-29

Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a total PRISMA-A score < 6, lacking identification as SR or MA in the title, and lacking explanation concerning bias risk assessment methods were classified as low-methodological quality. Abstracts with a total PRISMA-A score ≥ 9, including main outcomes results and explanation bias risk assessment method were classified as having low-bias risk. The methodological quality and bias risk of SRs may be determined by abstract's quality and completeness analyses. Our proposal aimed to facilitate synthesis of evidence evaluation by clinical professionals lacking methodological skills. External validation is necessary.

Personality Assessment of Global Talent: Conceptual and Methodological Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Vijver, Fons J. R.

2008-01-01

The recruitment of managers who will operate in a culturally heterogeneous context (as expatriate managers, managers in a global company, or managers of a multicultural workforce) is increasingly important in an age of globalization. This article describes conceptual and methodological issues in the assessment of such managers, notably in the…

Management Information System Based on the Balanced Scorecard

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kettunen, Juha; Kantola, Ismo

2005-01-01

Purpose: This study seeks to describe the planning and implementation in Finland of a campus-wide management information system using a rigorous planning methodology. Design/methodology/approach: The structure of the management information system is planned on the basis of the management process, where strategic management and the balanced…

[Design, implementation and evaluation of a management model of patient safety in hospitals in Catalonia, Spain].

PubMed

Saura, Rosa Maria; Moreno, Pilar; Vallejo, Paula; Oliva, Glòria; Alava, Fernando; Esquerra, Miquel; Davins, Josep; Vallès, Roser; Bañeres, Joaquim

2014-07-01

Since its inception in 2006, the Alliance for Patient Safety in Catalonia has played a major role in promoting and shaping a series of projects related to the strategy of the Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality, for improving patient safety. One such project was the creation of functional units or committees of safety in hospitals in order to facilitate the management of patient safety. The strategy has been implemented in hospitals in Catalonia which were selected based on criteria of representativeness. The intervention was based on two lines of action, one to develop the model framework and the other for its development. Firstly the strategy for safety management based on EFQM (European Foundation for Quality Management) was defined with the development of standards, targets and indicators to implement security while the second part involved the introduction of tools, methodologies and knowledge to the management support of patient safety and risk prevention. The project was developed in four hospital areas considered higher risk, each assuming six goals for safety management. Some of these targets such as the security control panel or system of adverse event reporting were shared. 23 hospitals joined the project in Catalonia. Despite the different situations in each centre, high compliance was achieved in the development of the objectives. In each of the participating areas the security control panel was developed. Stable structures for safety management were established or strengthened. Training in patient safety played and important role, 1415 professionals participated. Through these kind of projects not only have been introduced programs of proven effectiveness in reducing risks, but they also provide to the facilities a work system that allows autonomy in diagnosis and analysis of the different risk situations or centre specific safety issues. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Espana.

Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

2014-05-01

All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK ANALYSIS, DECISION ANALYSIS, EL SALVADOR.

Sources of uncertanity as a basis to fill the information gap in a response to flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kekez, Toni; Knezic, Snjezana

2016-04-01

Taking into account uncertainties in flood risk management remains a challenge due to difficulties in choosing adequate structural and/or non-structural risk management options. Despite stated measures wrong decisions are often being made when flood occurs. Parameter and structural uncertainties which include model and observation errors as well as lack of knowledge about system characteristics are the main considerations. Real time flood risk assessment methods are predominantly based on measured water level values and vulnerability as well as other relevant characteristics of flood affected area. The goal of this research is to identify sources of uncertainties and to minimize information gap between the point where the water level is measured and the affected area, taking into consideration main uncertainties that can affect risk value at the observed point or section of the river. Sources of uncertainties are identified and determined using system analysis approach and relevant uncertainties are included in the risk assessment model. With such methodological approach it is possible to increase response time with more effective risk assessment which includes uncertainty propagation model. Response phase could be better planned with adequate early warning systems resulting in more time and less costs to help affected areas and save human lives. Reliable and precise information is necessary to raise emergency operability level in order to enhance safety of citizens and reducing possible damage. The results of the EPISECC (EU funded FP7) project are used to validate potential benefits of this research in order to improve flood risk management and response methods. EPISECC aims at developing a concept of a common European Information Space for disaster response which, among other disasters, considers the floods.

An overview of safety assessment, regulation, and control of hazardous material use at NREL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, B. P.; Crandall, R. S.; Moskowitz, P. D.; Fthenakis, V. M.

1992-12-01

This paper summarizes the methodology we use to ensure the safe use of hazardous materials at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). First, we analyze the processes and the materials used in those processes to identify the hazards presented. Then we study federal, state, and local regulations and apply the relevant requirements to our operations. When necessary, we generate internal safety documents to consolidate this information. We design research operations and support systems to conform to these requirements. Before we construct the systems, we perform a semiquantitative risk analysis on likely accident scenarios. All scenarios presenting an unacceptable risk require system or procedural modifications to reduce the risk. Following these modifications, we repeat the risk analysis to ensure that the respective accident scenarios present an acceptable risk. Once all risks are acceptable, we conduct an operational readiness review (ORR). A management-appointed panel performs the ORR ensuring compliance with all relevant requirements. After successful completion of the ORR, operations can begin.

Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

PubMed

Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

2009-12-21

Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our increasingly risk-averse culture.

The influence of thresholds on the risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Pratt, Iona; Barlow, Susan; Kleiner, Juliane; Larsen, John Christian

2009-08-01

The risks from exposure to chemical contaminants in food must be scientifically assessed, in order to safeguard the health of consumers. Risk assessment of chemical contaminants that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic presents particular difficulties, since the effects of such substances are normally regarded as being without a threshold. No safe level can therefore be defined, and this has implications for both risk management and risk communication. Risk management of these substances in food has traditionally involved application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle, however ALARA does not enable risk managers to assess the urgency and extent of the risk reduction measures needed. A more refined approach is needed, and several such approaches have been developed. Low-dose linear extrapolation from animal carcinogenicity studies or epidemiological studies to estimate risks for humans at low exposure levels has been applied by a number of regulatory bodies, while more recently the Margin of Exposure (MOE) approach has been applied by both the European Food Safety Authority and the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. A further approach is the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), which establishes exposure thresholds for chemicals present in food, dependent on structure. Recent experimental evidence that genotoxic responses may be thresholded has significant implications for the risk assessment of chemicals that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic. In relation to existing approaches such as linear extrapolation, MOE and TTC, the existence of a threshold reduces the uncertainties inherent in such methodology and improves confidence in the risk assessment. However, for the foreseeable future, regulatory decisions based on the concept of thresholds for genotoxic carcinogens are likely to be taken case-by-case, based on convincing data on the Mode of Action indicating that the rate limiting variable for the development of cancer lies on a critical pathway that is thresholded.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would be useful to develop case studies and/or standards of practice for interpreting lines of evidence. In addition, tools for cumulative risk assessment should be developed because contaminants are often released into stressed environments.

Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

2016-12-01

Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario development. The use of small focus groups to engage with climate scenarios could add value to other ongoing efforts to promote landscape-scale adaptation.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

International trade standards for commodities and products derived from animals: the need for a system that integrates food safety and animal disease risk management.

PubMed

Thomson, G R; Penrith, M-L; Atkinson, M W; Thalwitzer, S; Mancuso, A; Atkinson, S J; Osofsky, S A

2013-12-01

A case is made for greater emphasis to be placed on value chain management as an alternative to geographically based disease risk mitigation for trade in commodities and products derived from animals. The geographic approach is dependent upon achievement of freedom in countries or zones from infectious agents that cause so-called transboundary animal diseases, while value chain-based risk management depends upon mitigation of animal disease hazards potentially associated with specific commodities or products irrespective of the locality of production. This commodity-specific approach is founded on the same principles upon which international food safety standards are based, viz. hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP). Broader acceptance of a value chain approach enables animal disease risk management to be combined with food safety management by the integration of commodity-based trade and HACCP methodologies and thereby facilitates 'farm to fork' quality assurance. The latter is increasingly recognized as indispensable to food safety assurance and is therefore a pre-condition to safe trade. The biological principles upon which HACCP and commodity-based trade are based are essentially identical, potentially simplifying sanitary control in contrast to current separate international sanitary standards for food safety and animal disease risks that are difficult to reconcile. A value chain approach would not only enable more effective integration of food safety and animal disease risk management of foodstuffs derived from animals but would also ameliorate adverse environmental and associated socio-economic consequences of current sanitary standards based on the geographic distribution of animal infections. This is especially the case where vast veterinary cordon fencing systems are relied upon to separate livestock and wildlife as is the case in much of southern Africa. A value chain approach would thus be particularly beneficial to under-developed regions of the world such as southern Africa specifically and sub-Saharan Africa more generally where it would reduce incompatibility between attempts to expand and commercialize livestock production and the need to conserve the subcontinent's unparalleled wildlife and wilderness resources. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A new Geo-Information Architecture for Risk Management in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mi.; Thuering, M.

2009-04-01

During the last decades land-use increased significantly in the Swiss (and European) mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, anthropic activities were extended into areas prone to natural hazards such as avalanches, debris flows and rockfalls (Smith 2001). Furthermore, the transalpine transport system necessity to develop effective links in an important area collides with the need to ensure the safety of travelers and the health of the population. Consequently, an increase in losses due to hazards can be observed. To mitigate these associated losses, both traditional protective measures and land-use planning policies are to be developed and implemented to optimize future investments. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. As part of the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 54 "Evaluation of the optimal resilience for vulnerable infrastructure networks - An interdisciplinary pilot study on the transalpine transportation corridors" we study the vulnerability of infrastructures due to natural hazards. The project aims to study various natural hazards (and later, even man-made) and to obtain an evaluation of the resilience according to an interdisciplinary approach, considering the possible damage by means of risk criteria and pointing out the feasibility of conceivable measures to reduce potential damage. The project consists of a geoscientific part and an application. The fist part consists in studying the dangers (natural) and related risks in terms of infrastructure vulnerability. The application considers different types of danger (logically intersected with the transport infrastructure) and compares them with fixed values to obtain a so-called deficit. As framework we adopt The Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). In this way the project develops a methodology that makes possible a risk analysis aiming to optimize the infrastructure vulnerability and therefore allows to obtain a model designed to optimize the functionality of the network infrastructure. A simulation environment, RiskBox, is developed within the open-source GIS environment GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) and a database (PostgreSQL) in order to manage a infrastructure data catalog. The targeted simulation environment includes the elements that identify the consecutive steps of risk analysis: hazard - vulnerability - risk. The initial results of the experimental case study show how useful a GIS-based system, which identify the risk of any single vulnerable element in the corridor and to assess the risk to the global system on the basis of priorities of the actors involved, can be for effective and efficient disaster response management, as explained in (ARMONIA Project 2007). In our work we wanted to highlight the complexity of the risk analysis methodology, difficulty that is amplified by many peculiarities in the mountain areas. In particular, the illustrative performed process can give an overview of the interests and the need to act to reduce vulnerability and the hazardous nature of the Gotthard corridor. We present the concept and current state of development of our project and our application to the testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. REFERENCES ARMONIA Project 2007: Land use plans in Risky areas fro Unwise to Wise Practices - Materials 2nd conference. Politecnico di Milano. BUWAL 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Methode, Fallbeispiele und Daten (Risk analyses for gravitational natural hazards). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Umwelt-Materialen Nr. 107, 1-244. Loat, R. & Zimmermann, M. 2004 : La gestion des risques en Suisse (Risk Management in Switzerland). In: Veyret, Y., Garry, G., Meschinet de Richemont, N. & Armand Colin (eds) 2002: Colloque Arche de la Défense 22-24 octobre 2002, dans Risques naturels et aménagement en Europe, 108-120. Smith, K. 2001: Environmental hazards. Assessing the risk and reducing disaster. Third edition. London

Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review).

PubMed Central

Kates, R W; Kasperson, J X

1983-01-01

Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness. PMID:6580625

Planning "and" Sprinting: Use of a Hybrid Project Management Methodology within a CIS Capstone Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baird, Aaron; Riggins, Frederick J.

2012-01-01

An increasing number of information systems projects in industry are managed using hybrid project management methodologies, but this shift in project management methods is not fully represented in our CIS curriculums. CIS capstone courses often include an applied project that is managed with traditional project management methods (plan first,…

Methodology for assessing the effectiveness of access management techniques : executive summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-14

A methodology for assessing the effectiveness of access management techniques on suburban arterial highways is developed. The methodology is described as a seven-step process as follows: (1) establish the purpose of the analysis (2) establish the mea...

Pareto frontier analyses based decision making tool for transportation of hazardous waste.

PubMed

Das, Arup; Mazumder, T N; Gupta, A K

2012-08-15

Transportation of hazardous wastes through a region poses immense threat on the development along its road network. The risk to the population, exposed to such activities, has been documented in the past. However, a comprehensive framework for routing hazardous wastes has often been overlooked. A regional Hazardous Waste Management scheme should incorporate a comprehensive framework for hazardous waste transportation. This framework would incorporate the various stakeholders involved in decision making. Hence, a multi-objective approach is required to safeguard the interest of all the concerned stakeholders. The objective of this study is to design a methodology for routing of hazardous wastes between the generating units and the disposal facilities through a capacity constrained network. The proposed methodology uses posteriori method with multi-objective approach to find non-dominated solutions for the system consisting of multiple origins and destinations. A case study of transportation of hazardous wastes in Kolkata Metropolitan Area has also been provided to elucidate the methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anticipating the Chaotic Behaviour of Industrial Systems Based on Stochastic, Event-Driven Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruzzone, Agostino G.; Revetria, Roberto; Simeoni, Simone; Viazzo, Simone; Orsoni, Alessandra

2004-08-01

In logistics and industrial production managers must deal with the impact of stochastic events to improve performances and reduce costs. In fact, production and logistics systems are generally designed considering some parameters as deterministically distributed. While this assumption is mostly used for preliminary prototyping, it is sometimes also retained during the final design stage, and especially for estimated parameters (i.e. Market Request). The proposed methodology can determine the impact of stochastic events in the system by evaluating the chaotic threshold level. Such an approach, based on the application of a new and innovative methodology, can be implemented to find the condition under which chaos makes the system become uncontrollable. Starting from problem identification and risk assessment, several classification techniques are used to carry out an effect analysis and contingency plan estimation. In this paper the authors illustrate the methodology with respect to a real industrial case: a production problem related to the logistics of distributed chemical processing.

LANDFIRE: Collaboration for National Fire Fuel Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2006-01-01

The implementation of national fire management policies, such as the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forest Restoration Act, requires geospatial data of vegetation types and structure, wildland fuels, fire risks, and ecosystem fire regime conditions. Presently, no such data sets are available that can meet these requirements. As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service and the Department of the Interior's land management bureaus (Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), and National Park Service (NPS)) have jointly sponsored LANDFIRE, a new research and development project. The primary objective of the project is to develop an integrated and repeatable methodology and produce vegetation, fire, and ecosystem information and predictive models for cost-effective national land management applications. The project is conducted collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the USDA Forest Service, and The Nature Conservancy.

Evolution from safety management system (SMS) to HSE MS: Incorporating health aspects into the HSE management system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jong, G. de

1996-12-31

There is increasing recognition within the E&P industry that protection and promotion of the health of people at work is more than taking care of individual health. It is an organizational issue which can be managed using the same principles as for safety and environment. The synergy`s with safety and environmental management provide the link with the management system. However line managers need to under the critical Health issues: what are they are they relevant? How do we manage them? what are the standards? What are the management tools to be used? How do we monitor performance? What is themore » role of the line? What is the role of the health advisers? What training and competencies are needed for health management? What are the benefits? These questions have to be clarified before acceptance can be achieved for full integration of Health aspects into the HSE Management System. Health Risk Assessment was developed as a tool for systematic identification and assessment of health hazards and risks. It specifies the need for and type of controls and recovery measures, which can subsequently be incorporated in HSE Management System and HSE Cases. Our experience to date indicates that Health can successfully be integrated in HSE Management Systems and HSE Cases by using the same principles as developed for Safety Management Systems and Safety Cases. There are still many problems which need to be addressed but the methodology used appears to be sound and will eventually enhance line management understanding of the health management aspects relevant to the E&P Industry.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Kyoo-Man, E-mail: ha1999@hotmail.com

In Korea, there is a pervasive feeling of invincibility to the point that people and organizations do not believe that disasters can strike them. This has impact on the level of preparedness for disasters. This study aims to delve into how Korea has to change its governmental policies/practices with some private partners' efforts to mitigate disaster risks. A case study was utilized as the major methodology by comparing exclusive management with inclusive management. These two approaches have been comparatively analyzed via four variables, namely the central government, the local governments, the incident commander, and other stakeholders. The major finding ismore » that Korea's practices and policies have to evolve from the current exclusive management into future-oriented inclusive management. Moreover, the importance of communication, cooperation, collaboration, and multi-discipline coordination is discussed. Additionally, the problem of reductionism and equal participation among all stakeholders, as well as the resistance from vested interests, are recognized and elaborated for Korea and the international community. - Highlights: • Only a few stakeholders in Korea believe that disaster can happen to anyone. This study aims to delve into how Korea has to change its current practices to mitigate disaster risks. • To compare exclusive management with inclusive management, we have examined four comparative variables, namely the central government's policy, local government's strategy, the incident commander's post, and other stakeholders' efforts. • The major finding is that Korea's practices and policies have to evolve from the current exclusive management into future-oriented inclusive management.« less

Anatomy of a Security Operations Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, John

2010-01-01

Many agencies and corporations are either contemplating or in the process of building a cyber Security Operations Center (SOC). Those Agencies that have established SOCs are most likely working on major revisions or enhancements to existing capabilities. As principle developers of the NASA SOC; this Presenters' goals are to provide the GFIRST community with examples of some of the key building blocks of an Agency scale cyber Security Operations Center. This presentation viII include the inputs and outputs, the facilities or shell, as well as the internal components and the processes necessary to maintain the SOC's subsistence - in other words, the anatomy of a SOC. Details to be presented include the SOC architecture and its key components: Tier 1 Call Center, data entry, and incident triage; Tier 2 monitoring, incident handling and tracking; Tier 3 computer forensics, malware analysis, and reverse engineering; Incident Management System; Threat Management System; SOC Portal; Log Aggregation and Security Incident Management (SIM) systems; flow monitoring; IDS; etc. Specific processes and methodologies discussed include Incident States and associated Work Elements; the Incident Management Workflow Process; Cyber Threat Risk Assessment methodology; and Incident Taxonomy. The Evolution of the Cyber Security Operations Center viII be discussed; starting from reactive, to proactive, and finally to proactive. Finally, the resources necessary to establish an Agency scale SOC as well as the lessons learned in the process of standing up a SOC viII be presented.

Tailored Communication Within Mobile Apps for Diabetes Self-Management: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Holmen, Heidi; Wahl, Astrid Klopstad; Cvancarova Småstuen, Milada; Ribu, Lis

2017-06-23

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing and with the requirements for self-management and risk of late complications, it remains a challenge for the individual and society. Patients can benefit from support from health care personnel in their self-management, and the traditional communication between patients and health care personnel is changing. Smartphones and apps offer a unique platform for communication, but apps with integrated health care personnel communication based on patient data are yet to be investigated to provide evidence of possible effects. Our goal was to systematically review studies that aimed to evaluate integrated communication within mobile apps for tailored feedback between patients with diabetes and health care personnel in terms of (1) study characteristics, (2) functions, (3) study outcomes, (4) effects, and (5) methodological quality. A systematic literature search was conducted following our International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) protocol, searching for apps with integrated communication for persons with diabetes tested in a controlled trial in the period 2008 to 2016. We searched the databases PubMed, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Central, Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. The search was closed in September 2016. Reference lists of primary articles and review papers were assessed. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed, and we applied the Cochrane risk of bias tool to assess methodological quality. We identified 2822 citations and after duplicate removal, we assessed 1128 citations. A total of 6 papers were included in this systematic review, reporting on data from 431 persons participating in small trials of short duration. The integrated communication features were mostly individualized as written non-real-time feedback. The number of functions varied from 2 to 9, and blood glucose tracking was the most common. HbA 1c was the most common primary outcome, but the remaining reported outcomes were not standardized and comparable. Because of both the heterogeneity of the included trials and the poor methodological quality of the studies, a meta-analysis was not possible. A statistically significant improvement in the primary measure of outcome was found in 3 of the 6 included studies, of which 2 were HbA 1c and 1 was mean daytime ambulatory blood pressure. Participants in the included trials reported positive usability or feasibility postintervention in 5 out of 6 trials. The overall methodological quality of the trials was, however, scored as an uncertain risk of bias. This systematic review highlights the need for more trials of higher methodological quality. Few studies offer an integrated function for communication and feedback from health care personnel, and the research field represents an area of heterogeneity with few studies of highly rigorous methodological quality. This, in combination with a low number of participants and a short follow-up, is making it difficult to provide reliable evidence of effects for stakeholders. ©Heidi Holmen, Astrid Klopstad Wahl, Milada Cvancarova Småstuen, Lis Ribu. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 23.06.2017.

[Updating the problems of human ecology and environmental health and the ways of solving them].

PubMed

Rakhmanin, Iu A

2012-01-01

Displaying a variety of scientific areas studying the influence of the environment on human health, the state and modern issues of assessment of environmental quality, hygienic standardization of chemical and biological contamination, methodical support of sanitarian and health monitoring and risk assessment of pollution, environmental health, the need for improvement and harmonization with the international instruments of the legal and methodological framework for the protection of the human environment, of the development of a modern management system of her quality based on epidemiological methods for simulation, risk analysis, assessment of economic damage to the environment and health of the population, forming a new branch of medicine--medicine of environment.

Weather Indices for Designing Micro-Insurance Products for Small-Holder Farmers in the Tropics

PubMed Central

Díaz Nieto, Jacqueline; Fisher, Myles; Cook, Simon; Läderach, Peter; Lundy, Mark

2012-01-01

Agriculture is inherently risky. Drought is a particularly troublesome hazard that has a documented adverse impact on agricultural development. A long history of decision-support tools have been developed to try and help farmers or policy makers manage risk. We offer site-specific drought insurance methodology as a significant addition to this process. Drought insurance works by encapsulating the best available scientific estimate of drought probability and severity at a site within a single number- the insurance premium, which is offered by insurers to insurable parties in a transparent risk-sharing agreement. The proposed method is demonstrated in a case study for dry beans in Nicaragua. PMID:22737210

Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jie; Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Zhane; Liu, Min; He, Qing

2016-06-01

Urban pluvial flood are attracting growing public concern due to rising intense precipitation and increasing consequences. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient urban pluvial flood management, particularly in transportation sector. This paper describes an integrated methodology, which initially makes use of high resolution 2D inundation modeling and flood depth-dependent measure to evaluate the potential impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on road network in the city center of Shanghai, China. Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships of Shanghai rainstorm and Chicago Design Storm are combined to generate ensemble rainfall scenarios. A hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) is used to simulate overland flow and flood inundation for each scenario. Furthermore, road impact and risk assessment are respectively conducted by a new proposed algorithm and proxy. Results suggest that the flood response is a function of spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and local characteristics (i.e. drainage and topography), and pluvial flash flood is found to lead to proportionate but nonlinear impact on intra-urban road inundation risk. The approach tested here would provide more detailed flood information for smart management of urban street network and may be applied to other big cities where road flood risk is evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.

Communicating Risk to Aboriginal Peoples: First Nations and Metis Responses to H1N1 Risk Messages

PubMed Central

Driedger, S. Michelle; Cooper, Elizabeth; Jardine, Cindy; Furgal, Chris; Bartlett, Judith

2013-01-01

Developing appropriate risk messages during challenging situations like public health outbreaks is complicated. The focus of this paper is on how First Nations and Metis people in Manitoba, Canada, responded to the public health management of pandemic H1N1, using a focus group methodology (n = 23 focus groups). Focus group conversations explored participant reactions to messaging regarding the identification of H1N1 virus risk groups, the H1N1 vaccine and how priority groups to receive the vaccine were established. To better contextualize the intentions of public health professionals, key informant interviews (n = 20) were conducted with different health decision makers (e.g., public health officials, people responsible for communications, representatives from some First Nations and Metis self-governing organizations). While risk communication practice has improved, ‘one size’ messaging campaigns do not work effectively, particularly when communicating about who is most ‘at-risk’. Public health agencies need to pay more attention to the specific socio-economic, historical and cultural contexts of First Nations and Metis citizens when planning for, communicating and managing responses associated with pandemic outbreaks to better tailor both the messages and delivery. More attention is needed to directly engage First Nations and Metis communities in the development and dissemination of risk messaging. PMID:23940697

[THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE ACTIVITY OF ORGANS OF FEDERAL SERVICE FOR SUPERVISION OF CONSUMER RIGHTS PROTECTION AND HUMAN WELFARE IN THE SVERDLOVSK REGION].

PubMed

Kuz'min, S V; Gurvich, V B; Romanov, S V; Dikonskaia, O V; Iarushin, S V; Malykh, O L

2015-01-01

In the Sverdlovsk region there have developed and implemented methodological approaches to the optimization oj the activity of the Directorate and the Centre directed to the improvement of the sanitary and epidemiological surveillance and in the sphere of the protection of the rights of consumers in the framework of the development of an comprehensive regional system of risk management for the population's health in the Sverdlovsk region.

Consensus statement on a framework for the management of comorbidity and extra-articular manifestations in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Loza, Estíbaliz; Lajas, Cristina; Andreu, Jose Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; González-Álvaro, Isidoro; Illera, Oscar; Jover, Juan Ángel; Mateo, Isabel; Orte, Javier; Rivera, Javier; Rodríguez Heredia, José Manuel; Romero, Fredeswinda; Martínez-López, Juan Antonio; Ortiz, Ana María; Toledano, Esther; Villaverde, Virginia; Carmona, Loreto; Castañeda, Santos

2015-03-01

The objective of the study was to develop evidence-based and practical recommendations for the detection and management of comorbidity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in daily practice. We used a modified RAND/UCLA methodology and systematic review (SR). The process map and specific recommendations, based on the SR, were established in discussion groups. A two round Delphi survey permitted (1) to prioritize the recommendations, (2) to refine them, and (3) to evaluate their agreement by a large group of users. The recommendations cover: (1) which comorbidities should be investigated in clinical practice at the first and following visits (including treatments, risk factors and patient's features that might interfere with RA management); (2) how and when should comorbidities and risk factors be investigated; (3) how to manage specific comorbidities, related or non-related to RA, including major adverse events of RA treatment, and to promote health (general and musculoskeletal health); and (4) specific recommendations to assure an integral care approach for RA patients with any comorbidity, such as health care models for chronic inflammatory patients, early arthritis units, relationships with primary care, specialized nursing care, and self-management. These recommendations are intended to guide rheumatologists, patients, and other stakeholders, on the early diagnosis and management of comorbidity in RA, in order to improve disease outcomes.

[Antipsychotic Treatment of the Adult Patient in the Acute Phase of Schizophrenia].

PubMed

Bohórquez Peñaranda, Adriana; Gómez Restrepo, Carlos; García Valencia, Jenny; Jaramillo González, Luis Eduardo; de la Hoz, Ana María; Arenas, Álvaro; Tamayo Martínez, Nathalie

2014-01-01

To determine the efficacy and safety of different antipsychotic drugs in the management of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia in the acute phase. To formulate evidence-based recommendations on the antipsychotic (AP) drug management strategies for the treatment of the adult diagnosed with schizophrenia in the acute phase. Clinical practice guidelines were prepared, using the guidelines of the Methodology Guide of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection, in order to identify, synthesise, and evaluate the evidence and formulate recommendations as regards the management and follow-up of adult patients diagnosed with schizophrenia. The evidence of the NICE 82 guideline was adopted and updated, which answered the question on the management of the acute phase of adults with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. The evidence and its level were presented to the Guideline Development Group (GDG) in order to formulate recommendations following the methodology proposed by the GRADE approach. Clozapine, olanzapine, risperidone, ziprasidone, amisulpride, paliperidone, haloperidol, quetiapine, and aripiprazole were more effective than placebo for the majority of psychotic symptoms and the abandonment of treatment, but asenapine was not. Paliperidone, risperidone, quetiapine, clozapine, and olanzapine showed significant increases in weight compared to placebo. Haloperidol, risperidone, ziprasidone, and paliperidone had a higher risk of extrapyramidal symptoms than placebo. There was a significant risk of sedation or drowsiness with, risperidone, haloperidol, ziprasidone, quetiapine, olanzapine, and clozapine in the comparisons with placebo. Of the results of the comparisons between AP, it was shown that clozapine and paliperidone had a clinically significant effect compared to haloperidol and quetiapine, respectively. Olanzapine and risperidone had a lower risk of abandoning the treatment in general, and due to adverse reactions in two comparisons of each one, haloperidol was the drug with more risk of abandoning due to adverse effects, followed by clozapine. Amisulpride, haloperidol and ziprasidone had favourable results as regards weight increase in several comparisons. Aripiprazole and paliperidone obtained a higher number of favourable results as regards sedation, and all the atypical drugs (except paliperidone) had a lower risk than the use of anti-parkinsonian drugs. Of the evidence from observational studies, it was found that, in subjects with risk factors for diabetes, such as age, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia, the initial treatment and current treatment with olanzapine, as well as current treatment with clozapine, may promote the development of this disease. Although it is imperative to prescribe an antipsychotic for treatment of the acute phase, the selection of the drug depends on the particular clinical condition of each patient and their collateral effects profile. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots.

PubMed

Washington, Simon; Haque, Md Mazharul; Oh, Jutaek; Lee, Dongmin

2014-05-01

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites-roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.-with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Methods for a study of Anticipatory and Preventive multidisciplinary Team Care in a family practice.

PubMed

Dahrouge, Simone; Hogg, William; Lemelin, Jacques; Liddy, Clare; Legault, Frances

2010-02-01

BACKGROUND T o examine the methodology used to evaluate whether focusing the work of nurse practitioners and a pharmacist on frail and at-risk patients would improve the quality of care for such patients. Evaluation of methodology of a randomized controlled trial including analysis of quantitative and qualitative data over time and analysis of cost-effectiveness. A single practice in a rural area near Ottawa, Ont. A total of 241 frail patients, aged 50 years and older, at risk of experiencing adverse health outcomes. At-risk patients were randomly assigned to receive Anticipatory and Preventive Team Care (from their family physicians, 1 of 3 nurse practitioners, and a pharmacist) or usual care. The principal outcome for the study was the quality of care for chronic disease management. Secondary outcomes included other quality of care measures and evaluation of the program process and its cost-effectiveness. This article examines the effectiveness of the methodology used. Quantitative data from surveys, administrative databases, and medical records were supplemented with qualitative information from interviews, focus groups, work logs, and study notes. Three factors limit our ability to fully demonstrate the potential effects of this team structure. For reasons outside our control, the intervention duration was shorter than intended; the practice's physical layout did not facilitate interactions between the care providers; and contamination of the intervention effect into the control arm cannot be excluded. The study used a randomized design, relied on a multifaceted approach to evaluating its effects, and used several sources of data. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT00238836 (CONSORT).

Systematic Review of Measurement Property Evidence for 8 Financial Management Instruments in Populations With Acquired Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Engel, Lisa; Chui, Adora; Beaton, Dorcas E; Green, Robin E; Dawson, Deirdre R

2018-03-07

To critically appraise the measurement property evidence (ie, psychometric) for 8 observation-based financial management assessment instruments. Seven databases were searched in May 2015. Two reviewers used an independent decision-agreement process to select studies of measurement property evidence relevant to populations with adulthood acquired cognitive impairment, appraise the quality of the evidence, and extract data. Twenty-one articles were selected. This review used the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments review guidelines and 4-point tool to appraise evidence. After appraising the methodologic quality, the adequacy of results and volume of evidence per instrument were synthesized. Measurement property evidence with high risk of bias was excluded from the synthesis. The volume of measurement property evidence per instrument is low; most instruments had 1 to 3 included studies. Many included studies had poor methodologic quality per measurement property evidence area examined. Six of the 8 instruments reviewed had supporting construct validity/hypothesis-testing evidence of fair methodologic quality. There is a dearth of acceptable quality content validity, reliability, and responsiveness evidence for all 8 instruments. Rehabilitation practitioners assess financial management functions in adults with acquired cognitive impairments. However, there is limited published evidence to support using any of the reviewed instruments. Practitioners should exercise caution when interpreting the results of these instruments. This review highlights the importance of appraising the quality of measurement property evidence before examining the adequacy of the results and synthesizing the evidence. Copyright © 2018 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.