Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

An Integrated Web-Based Assessment Tool for Assessing Pesticide Exposure and Risks

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods We have created an integrated web-based tool designed to estimate exposure doses and ecological risks under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Species Act. This involved combining a number of disparat...

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

PubMed

Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

2016-05-01

The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

Assessing and improving health in the workplace: an integration of subjective and objective measures with the STress Assessment and Research Toolkit (St.A.R.T.) method

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The aim of this work was to introduce a new combined method of subjective and objective measures to assess psychosocial risk factors at work and improve workers’ health and well-being. In the literature most of the research on work-related stress focuses on self-report measures and this work represents the first methodology capable of integrating different sources of data. Method An integrated method entitled St.A.R.T. (STress Assessment and Research Toolkit) was used in order to assess psychosocial risk factors and two health outcomes. In particular, a self-report questionnaire combined with an observational structured checklist was administered to 113 workers from an Italian retail company. Results The data showed a correlation between subjective data and the rating data of the observational checklist for the psychosocial risk factors related to work contexts such as customer relationship management and customer queue. Conversely, the factors related to work content (workload and boredom) measured with different methods (subjective vs. objective) showed a discrepancy. Furthermore, subjective measures of psychosocial risk factors were more predictive of workers’ psychological health and exhaustion than rating data. The different objective measures played different roles, however, in terms of their influence on the two health outcomes considered. Conclusions It is important to integrate self-related assessment of stressors with objective measures for a better understanding of workers’ conditions in the workplace. The method presented could be considered a useful methodology for combining the two measures and differentiating the impact of different psychological risk factors related to work content and context on workers’ health. PMID:22995286

A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

PubMed

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

Integrative genetic risk prediction using non-parametric empirical Bayes classification.

PubMed

Zhao, Sihai Dave

2017-06-01

Genetic risk prediction is an important component of individualized medicine, but prediction accuracies remain low for many complex diseases. A fundamental limitation is the sample sizes of the studies on which the prediction algorithms are trained. One way to increase the effective sample size is to integrate information from previously existing studies. However, it can be difficult to find existing data that examine the target disease of interest, especially if that disease is rare or poorly studied. Furthermore, individual-level genotype data from these auxiliary studies are typically difficult to obtain. This article proposes a new approach to integrative genetic risk prediction of complex diseases with binary phenotypes. It accommodates possible heterogeneity in the genetic etiologies of the target and auxiliary diseases using a tuning parameter-free non-parametric empirical Bayes procedure, and can be trained using only auxiliary summary statistics. Simulation studies show that the proposed method can provide superior predictive accuracy relative to non-integrative as well as integrative classifiers. The method is applied to a recent study of pediatric autoimmune diseases, where it substantially reduces prediction error for certain target/auxiliary disease combinations. The proposed method is implemented in the R package ssa. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Assessing and improving health in the workplace: an integration of subjective and objective measures with the STress Assessment and Research Toolkit (St.A.R.T.) method.

PubMed

Panari, Chiara; Guglielmi, Dina; Ricci, Aurora; Tabanelli, Maria Carla; Violante, Francesco Saverio

2012-09-20

The aim of this work was to introduce a new combined method of subjective and objective measures to assess psychosocial risk factors at work and improve workers' health and well-being. In the literature most of the research on work-related stress focuses on self-report measures and this work represents the first methodology capable of integrating different sources of data. An integrated method entitled St.A.R.T. (STress Assessment and Research Toolkit) was used in order to assess psychosocial risk factors and two health outcomes. In particular, a self-report questionnaire combined with an observational structured checklist was administered to 113 workers from an Italian retail company. The data showed a correlation between subjective data and the rating data of the observational checklist for the psychosocial risk factors related to work contexts such as customer relationship management and customer queue. Conversely, the factors related to work content (workload and boredom) measured with different methods (subjective vs. objective) showed a discrepancy. Furthermore, subjective measures of psychosocial risk factors were more predictive of workers' psychological health and exhaustion than rating data. The different objective measures played different roles, however, in terms of their influence on the two health outcomes considered. It is important to integrate self-related assessment of stressors with objective measures for a better understanding of workers' conditions in the workplace. The method presented could be considered a useful methodology for combining the two measures and differentiating the impact of different psychological risk factors related to work content and context on workers' health.

Integrated rare variant-based risk gene prioritization in disease case-control sequencing studies.

PubMed

Lin, Jhih-Rong; Zhang, Quanwei; Cai, Ying; Morrow, Bernice E; Zhang, Zhengdong D

2017-12-01

Rare variants of major effect play an important role in human complex diseases and can be discovered by sequencing-based genome-wide association studies. Here, we introduce an integrated approach that combines the rare variant association test with gene network and phenotype information to identify risk genes implicated by rare variants for human complex diseases. Our data integration method follows a 'discovery-driven' strategy without relying on prior knowledge about the disease and thus maintains the unbiased character of genome-wide association studies. Simulations reveal that our method can outperform a widely-used rare variant association test method by 2 to 3 times. In a case study of a small disease cohort, we uncovered putative risk genes and the corresponding rare variants that may act as genetic modifiers of congenital heart disease in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome patients. These variants were missed by a conventional approach that relied on the rare variant association test alone.

A retrospective likelihood approach for efficient integration of multiple omics factors in case-control association studies.

PubMed

Balliu, Brunilda; Tsonaka, Roula; Boehringer, Stefan; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine

2015-03-01

Integrative omics, the joint analysis of outcome and multiple types of omics data, such as genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics data, constitute a promising approach for powerful and biologically relevant association studies. These studies often employ a case-control design, and often include nonomics covariates, such as age and gender, that may modify the underlying omics risk factors. An open question is how to best integrate multiple omics and nonomics information to maximize statistical power in case-control studies that ascertain individuals based on the phenotype. Recent work on integrative omics have used prospective approaches, modeling case-control status conditional on omics, and nonomics risk factors. Compared to univariate approaches, jointly analyzing multiple risk factors with a prospective approach increases power in nonascertained cohorts. However, these prospective approaches often lose power in case-control studies. In this article, we propose a novel statistical method for integrating multiple omics and nonomics factors in case-control association studies. Our method is based on a retrospective likelihood function that models the joint distribution of omics and nonomics factors conditional on case-control status. The new method provides accurate control of Type I error rate and has increased efficiency over prospective approaches in both simulated and real data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Feasibility of integrating mental health and noncommunicable disease risk factor screening in periodical medical examination of employees in industries: An exploratory initiative

PubMed Central

Sukumar, Gautham Melur; Kupatira, Kowshik; Gururaj, G.

2015-01-01

Background: Noncommunicable disease (NCDs), psychological, substance use disorders, and stress-related issues have been less understood in Indian industrial settings. Systems for screening and early identification of the above have not been integrated in workplaces, nor there is a strong regulatory backing for the same. Aim: To explore the feasibility of integrating mental health and select NCD risk factor screening with the periodical medical examination of employees. To identify proportion of employees with select NCD risk factors and symptoms suggestive of mental health problems. Settings and Design: Around 10% of employees from a leading motor industry in Bangalore, (706) participated in this cross-sectional voluntary screening program. Materials and Methods: This screening was conducted as a part of their annual medical examination. A mixed method of self-report and interview administered technique was adopted for the same. Statistical Analysis: Descriptive statistical methods (proportions, median, mean, and standard deviation (SD)) and Chi-square test of significance. Results and Conclusions: Screening revealed the following; tobacco use (18%), alcohol use (57%), perceived work stress (10%), and obesity (3%). Nearly 23% screened positive for psychological distress. Time consumed for this assessment was 1–5 min. Initial attempts point out that it is feasible to integrate screening for mental health, substance use, and NCD risk factors in periodic medical examination using a combination of self-report and interview-administered method, though further detailed assessments for confirmation is necessary. PMID:26023267

Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

PubMed

Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

1987-08-01

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

76 FR 23755 - Release of Draft Risk and Exposure Assessments and Final Integrated Review Plan for the National...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-28

... titled, ``Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards: Scope and Methods Plan for Health Risk and... Standards: Scope and Methods Plan for Welfare Risk and Exposure Assessment'' (REA Plan for the secondary... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 40 CFR Parts 50 and 58 [EPA-HQ-OAR-2008-0699; FRL-9300-4] RIN 2060...

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

A data-driven approach to quality risk management

PubMed Central

Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

2013-01-01

Aim: An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Materials and Methods: Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. Results: Only a subset of the risk factors had a significant association with quality issues, and included: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Conclusion: Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety. PMID:24312890

Feasibility of integrating mental health and noncommunicable disease risk factor screening in periodical medical examination of employees in industries: An exploratory initiative.

PubMed

Sukumar, Gautham Melur; Kupatira, Kowshik; Gururaj, G

2015-01-01

Noncommunicable disease (NCDs), psychological, substance use disorders, and stress-related issues have been less understood in Indian industrial settings. Systems for screening and early identification of the above have not been integrated in workplaces, nor there is a strong regulatory backing for the same. To explore the feasibility of integrating mental health and select NCD risk factor screening with the periodical medical examination of employees. To identify proportion of employees with select NCD risk factors and symptoms suggestive of mental health problems. Around 10% of employees from a leading motor industry in Bangalore, (706) participated in this cross-sectional voluntary screening program. This screening was conducted as a part of their annual medical examination. A mixed method of self-report and interview administered technique was adopted for the same. Descriptive statistical methods (proportions, median, mean, and standard deviation (SD)) and Chi-square test of significance. Screening revealed the following; tobacco use (18%), alcohol use (57%), perceived work stress (10%), and obesity (3%). Nearly 23% screened positive for psychological distress. Time consumed for this assessment was 1-5 min. Initial attempts point out that it is feasible to integrate screening for mental health, substance use, and NCD risk factors in periodic medical examination using a combination of self-report and interview-administered method, though further detailed assessments for confirmation is necessary.

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webster, Mort David

2015-03-10

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

Risk of a Second Malignant Neoplasm After Cancer in Childhood Treated With Radiotherapy: Correlation With the Integral Dose Restricted to the Irradiated Fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, France; Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif; Universite Paris XI, Villejuif

2008-03-01

Purpose: After successful treatment of cancers in childhood, the occurrence of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) came to the fore. Few studies have considered the relationship between the radiation dose received and the risk of developing an SMN. To take into account the heterogeneity of the dose distribution so as to evaluate the overall risk of an SMN after a childhood cancer, we therefore focused on the integral dose restricted to the irradiated fields. Methods and Materials: The study was performed in a cohort of 4,401 patients who were 3-year survivors of all types of childhood cancer treated between 1947 andmore » 1986 in France and Great Britain. For each patient, the integral dose was estimated for the volume inside the beam edges. Results: We found a significant dose-response relationship between the overall risk of an SMN and the estimated integral dose. The excess relative risk for each incremental unit of the integral dose was only 0.008 in a linear model and 0.017 when a negative exponential term was considered, when adjusted for chemotherapy. The risk of SMN occurrence was 2.6 times higher in the case of irradiation. However among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose actually had a higher risk. Conclusions: The integral dose in our study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risks. However other studies with the same study design are obviously needed to evaluate the use of the integral dose as a tool for decision making concerning different radiotherapy techniques.« less

Customer-Specific Transaction Risk Management in E-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruch, Markus; Sackmann, Stefan

Increasing potential for turnover in e-commerce is inextricably linked with an increase in risk. Online retailers (e-tailers), aiming for a company-wide value orientation should manage this risk. However, current approaches to risk management either use average retail prices elevated by an overall risk premium or restrict the payment methods offered to customers. Thus, they neglect customer-specific value and risk attributes and leave turnover potentials unconsidered. To close this gap, an innovative valuation model is proposed in this contribution that integrates customer-specific risk and potential turnover. The approach presented evaluates different payment methods using their risk-turnover characteristic, provides a risk-adjusted decision basis for selecting payment methods and allows e-tailers to derive automated risk management decisions per customer and transaction without reducing turnover potential.

Integrated risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunsucker, J. L.

1993-01-01

The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Identification of Early Risk Factors for Developmental Delay

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delgado, Christine E. F.; Vagi, Sara J.; Scott, Keith G.

2007-01-01

Statewide birth certificate and preschool exceptionality records were integrated to identify risk factors for developmental delay (DD). Epidemiological methods were used to investigate both individual-level and population-level risk for DD associated with a number of child and maternal factors. Infants born with very low birth weight were at the…

Social Integration and Reduced Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women: The Role of Lifestyle Behaviors

PubMed Central

Chang, Shun-Chiao; Glymour, Maria; Cornelis, Marilyn; Walter, Stefan; Rimm, Eric B.; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D.

2017-01-01

Rationale Higher social integration is associated with lower cardiovascular mortality; however, whether it is associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in women, and if associations differ by case fatality is unclear. Objectives This study sought to examine the associations between social integration and risk of incident CHD in a large female prospective cohort. Methods and Results 76,362 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), free of CHD and stroke at baseline (1992), were followed until 2014. Social integration was assessed by a simplified Berkman-Syme Social Network Index every 4 years. Endpoints included nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and fatal CHD. 2,372 incident CHD events occurred throughout follow-up. Adjusting for demographic, health/medical risk factors and depressive symptoms, being socially integrated was significantly associated with lower CHD risk, particularly fatal CHD. The most socially integrated women had a hazard ratio of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.41–0.73) of developing fatal CHD compared to those least socially integrated (p-for-trend < 0.0001). When additionally adjusting for lifestyle behaviors, findings for fatal CHD were maintained but attenuated (p-for-trend = 0.02) whereas the significant associations no longer remained for nonfatal MI. The inverse associations between social integration and nonfatal MI risk were largely explained by health-promoting behaviors, particularly through differences in cigarette smoking; however, the association with fatal CHD risk remained after accounting for these behaviors and thus may involve more direct biological mechanisms. Conclusions Social integration is inversely associated with CHD incidence in women, but is largely explained by lifestyle/behavioral pathways. PMID:28373350

Provider accountability as a driving force towards physician–hospital integration: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Trybou, Jeroen; Gemmel, Paul; Annemans, Lieven

2015-01-01

Background Hospitals and physicians lie at the heart of our health care delivery system. In general, physicians provide medical care and hospitals the resources to deliver health care. In the past two decades many countries have adopted reforms in which provider financial risk bearing is increased. By making providers financially accountable for the delivered care integrated care delivery is stimulated. Purpose To assess the evidence base supporting the relationship between provider financial risk bearing and physician–hospital integration and to identify the different types of methods used to measure physician–hospital integration to evaluate the functional value of these integrative models. Results Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. The evidence base is mixed and inconclusive. Our methodological analysis of previous research shows that previous studies have largely focused on the formal structures of physician–hospital arrangements as an indicator of physician–hospital integration. Conclusion The link between provider financial risk bearing and physician–hospital integration can at this time be supported merely on the basis of theoretical insights of agency theory rather than empirical research. Physician–hospital integration measurement has concentrated on the prevalence of contracting vehicles that enables joint bargaining in a managed care environment but without realizing integration and cooperation between hospital and physicians. Therefore, we argue that these studies fail to shed light on the impact of risk shifting on the hospital–physician relationship accurately. PMID:26034469

Integrating Allergen Analysis Within a Risk Assessment Framework: Approaches to Development of Targeted Mass Spectrometry Methods for Allergen Detection and Quantification in the iFAAM Project.

PubMed

Nitride, Chiara; Lee, Victoria; Baricevic-Jones, Ivona; Adel-Patient, Karine; Baumgartner, Sabine; Mills, E N Clare

2018-01-01

Allergen analysis is central to implementing and monitoring food allergen risk assessment and management processes by the food industry, but current methods for the determination of allergens in foods give highly variable results. The European Union-funded "Integrated Approaches to Food Allergen and Allergy Risk Management" (iFAAM) project has been working to address gaps in knowledge regarding food allergen management and analysis, including the development of novel MS and immuno-based allergen determination methods. Common allergenic food ingredients (peanut, hazelnut, walnut, cow's milk [Bos domesticus], and hen's egg [Gallus domesticus]) and common food matrixes (chocolate dessert and cookie) have been used for both clinical studies and analytical method development to ensure that the new methods are clinically relevant. Allergen molecules have been used as analytical targets and allergenic ingredients incurred into matrixes at levels close to reference doses that may trigger the use of precautionary allergen labeling. An interlaboratory method comparison has been undertaken for the determination of peanut in chocolate dessert using MS and immuno-based methods. The iFAAM approach has highlighted the need for methods to report test results in allergenic protein. This will allow food business operators to use them in risk assessments that are founded on clinical study data in which protein has been used as a measure of allergenic potency.

[The socio-hygienic monitoring as an integral system for health risk assessment and risk management at the regional level].

PubMed

Kuzmin, S V; Gurvich, V B; Dikonskaya, O V; Malykh, O L; Yarushin, S V; Romanov, S V; Kornilkov, A S

2013-01-01

The information and analytical framework for the introduction of health risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the Sverdlovsk Region is the system of socio-hygienic monitoring. Techniques of risk management that take into account the choice of most cost-effective and efficient actions for improvement of the sanitary and epidemiologic situation at the level of the region, municipality, or a business entity of the Russian Federation, have been developed and proposed. To assess the efficiency of planning and activities for health risk management common method approaches and economic methods of "cost-effectiveness" and "cost-benefit" analyses provided in method recommendations and introduced in the Russian Federation are applied.

A pilot systematic genomic comparison of recurrence risks of hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma with low- and high-degree liver fibrosis.

PubMed

Yoo, Seungyeul; Wang, Wenhui; Wang, Qin; Fiel, M Isabel; Lee, Eunjee; Hiotis, Spiros P; Zhu, Jun

2017-12-07

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection leads to liver fibrosis, which is a major risk factor in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and an independent risk factor of recurrence after HCC tumor resection. The HBV genome can be inserted into the human genome, and chronic inflammation may trigger somatic mutations. However, how HBV integration and other genomic changes contribute to the risk of tumor recurrence with regards to the different degree of liver fibrosis is not clearly understood. We sequenced mRNAs of 21 pairs of tumor and distant non-neoplastic liver tissues of HBV-HCC patients and performed comprehensive genomic analyses of our RNAseq data and public available HBV-HCC sequencing data. We developed a robust pipeline for sensitively identifying HBV integration sites based on sequencing data. Simulations showed that our method outperformed existing methods. Applying it to our data, 374 and 106 HBV host genes were identified in non-neoplastic liver and tumor tissues, respectively. When applying it to other RNA sequencing datasets, consistently more HBV integrations were identified in non-neoplastic liver than in tumor tissues. HBV host genes identified in non-neoplastic liver samples significantly overlapped with known tumor suppressor genes. More significant enrichment of tumor suppressor genes was observed among HBV host genes identified from patients with tumor recurrence, indicating the potential risk of tumor recurrence driven by HBV integration in non-neoplastic liver tissues. We also compared SNPs of each sample with SNPs in a cancer census database and inferred samples' pathogenic SNP loads. Pathogenic SNP loads in non-neoplastic liver tissues were consistently higher than those in normal liver tissues. Additionally, HBV host genes identified in non-neoplastic liver tissues significantly overlapped with pathogenic somatic mutations, suggesting that HBV integration and somatic mutations targeting the same set of genes are important to tumorigenesis. HBV integrations and pathogenic mutations showed distinct patterns between low and high liver fibrosis patients with regards to tumor recurrence. The results suggest that HBV integrations and pathogenic SNPs in non-neoplastic tissues are important for tumorigenesis and different recurrence risk models are needed for patients with low and high degrees of liver fibrosis.

Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

PubMed

Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

2013-11-01

The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating social capacity into risk reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneiderbauer, S.; Pedoth, L.; Zebisch, M.

2012-04-01

The reduction of risk to impacts from external stresses and shocks is an important task in communities worldwide at all government levels and independent of the development status. The importance of building social capacity as part of risk reduction strategies is increasingly recognized. However, there is space for improvement to incorporate related activities into a holistic risk governance approach. Starting point for such enhancements is to promote and improve assessments of what is called 'sensitivity' or 'adaptive capacity' in the climate change community and what is named 'vulnerability' or 'resilience' in the hazard risk community. Challenging issues that need to be tackled in this context are the integration of concepts and method as well as the fusion of data. Against this background we introduce a method to assess regional adaptive capacity to climate change focusing on mountain areas accounting for sector specific problems. By considering three levels of specificity as base for the selection of most appropriate indicators the study results have the potential to support decision making regarding most appropriate adaptation actions. Advantages and shortcomings of certain aspects of adaptive capacity assessment in general and of the proposed method in particular are presented.

Integrating care for high-risk patients in England using the virtual ward model: lessons in the process of care integration from three case sites

PubMed Central

Lewis, Geraint; Vaithianathan, Rhema; Wright, Lorraine; Brice, Mary R; Lovell, Paul; Rankin, Seth; Bardsley, Martin

2013-01-01

Background Patients at high risk of emergency hospitalisation are particularly likely to experience fragmentation in care. The virtual ward model attempts to integrate health and social care by offering multidisciplinary case management to people at high predicted risk of unplanned hospitalisation. Objective To describe the care practice in three virtual ward sites in England and to explore how well each site had achieved meaningful integration. Method Case studies conducted in Croydon, Devon and Wandsworth during 2011–2012, consisting of semi-structured interviews, workshops, and site visits. Results Different versions of the virtual wards intervention had been implemented in each site. In Croydon, multidisciplinary care had reverted back to one-to-one case management. Conclusions To integrate successfully, virtual ward projects should safeguard the multidisciplinary nature of the intervention, ensure the active involvement of General Practitioners, and establish feedback processes to monitor performance such as the number of professions represented at each team meeting. PMID:24250284

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

PubMed

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

2013-09-01

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

2014-06-01

Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment—Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Lentz, T. J.; Dotson, G. S.; Williams, P. R.D.; Maier, A.; Gadagbui, B.; Pandalai, S. P.; Lamba, A.; Hearl, F.; Mumtaz, M.

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational. PMID:26583907

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Management, quality of health and occupational safety and hospital organization: is integration possible?].

PubMed

Corrao, Carmela Romana Natalina

2011-01-01

The evolution of the national and European legislation has progressively transformed the working environments into organized environments. Specific models for its management are being proposed, which should be integrated into general management strategies. In the case of hospitals this integration should consider the peculiar organizational complexity, where the management of the occupational risk needs to be integrated with clinical risk management and economic risk management. Resources management should also consider that Occupational Medicine has not a direct monetary benefit for the organisation, but only indirect health consequences in terms of reduction of accidents and occupational diseases. The deep and simultaneous analysis of the current general management systems and the current management methods of occupational safety and health protection allows one to hyphotesise a possible integration between them. For both of them the Top Management is the main responsible of the quality management strategies and the use of specific documents in the managerial process, such as the document of risks evaluation in the occupational management and the quality manual in the general management, is of paramount importance. An integrated management has also the scope to pursue a particular kind of quality management, where ethics and job satisfaction are innovative, as established by recent European guidelines, management systems and national legislations.

An Integrative Review of Multicomponent Weight Management Interventions for Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doherty, Alison J.; Jones, Stephanie P.; Chauhan, Umesh; Gibson, Josephine M. E.

2018-01-01

Background: Obesity is more prevalent in people with intellectual disabilities and increases the risk of developing serious medical conditions. UK guidance recommends multicomponent weight management interventions (MCIs), tailored for different population groups. Methods: An integrative review utilizing systematic review methodology was conducted…

Road traffic injuries in one local health unit in the Lazio region: results of a surveillance system integrating police and health data

PubMed Central

Chini, Francesco; Farchi, Sara; Ciaramella, Ivana; Antoniozzi, Tranquillo; Rossi, Paolo Giorgi; Camilloni, Laura; Valenti, Massimo; Borgia, Piero

2009-01-01

Objective Different sources are available for the surveillance of Road Traffic injuries (RTI), but studied individually they present several limits. In this paper we present the results of a surveillance integrating healthcare data with the data gathered by the municipal police in the southeastern area of Rome (630,000 inhabitants) during the year 2003. Methods The Municipal police RTI reports, which list the exact location, circumstances and some risk factor of the crash, were searched in the emergency visit, hospitalization and mortality databases, to integrate them with the information on health consequences. A multivariate analysis was conducted to evaluate risk factors (crash circumstances, age ad gender of the casualty) associated with hospital admission following a RTI. Mapping of RTI locations was created. The locations with higher risk of accidents with severe health consequences and at higher risk for pedestrians were identified. Results According to police records 4571 RTI occurred in 2003, 75% of which led to emergency department admissions. Sixteen percent of these emergency visits ended in hospitalization, and 44 deaths were reported within 30 days of the event, most of which occurred in young men. The people with the highest risk of hospitalization after an RTI were the cyclists, pedestrians and followed by people on two-wheeled vehicles. The type of crash with the highest risk of hospitalization was head-on collision. Geographical analyses showed four clusters with higher severity of RTI. Specific attention was paid to pedestrian injuries. Analyzing the locations of RTIs involving pedestrians permitted us to rank the most dangerous streets. The roads at high risk for pedestrians identified problems in the bus stop constructions and in the placement of the zebra pedestrian crossings. Conclusion This study proves the feasibility of an integrated surveillance system of RTI by using routinely collected local data. The high-risk locations identified with the geographic analyses method in this study highlighted infrastructural problems, suggesting immediate preventive interventions. PMID:19386112

A data-driven approach to quality risk management.

PubMed

Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

2013-10-01

An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. ONLY A SUBSET OF THE RISK FACTORS HAD A SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATION WITH QUALITY ISSUES, AND INCLUDED: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety.

Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, B.

2016-12-01

Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and the development of methods to evaluate integrated portfolios of physical and financial risk management strategies.

Robust approaches to quantification of margin and uncertainty for sparse data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hund, Lauren; Schroeder, Benjamin B.; Rumsey, Kelin

Characterizing the tails of probability distributions plays a key role in quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU), where the goal is characterization of low probability, high consequence events based on continuous measures of performance. When data are collected using physical experimentation, probability distributions are typically fit using statistical methods based on the collected data, and these parametric distributional assumptions are often used to extrapolate about the extreme tail behavior of the underlying probability distribution. In this project, we character- ize the risk associated with such tail extrapolation. Specifically, we conducted a scaling study to demonstrate the large magnitude of themore » risk; then, we developed new methods for communicat- ing risk associated with tail extrapolation from unvalidated statistical models; lastly, we proposed a Bayesian data-integration framework to mitigate tail extrapolation risk through integrating ad- ditional information. We conclude that decision-making using QMU is a complex process that cannot be achieved using statistical analyses alone.« less

Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

2013-01-01

In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

Deconstructing the complexity of substance use among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) by optimizing the role of qualitative strategies in a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Kubicek, Katrina; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F; Kipke, Michele D

2010-04-01

Qualitative data can be a powerful tool in developing interventions for substance use and other HIV-risk behaviors. Mixed methods design offers researchers the ability to obtain data that provides both breadth and depth to their research questions. However, the integration of qualitative data in mixed methods research has been limited. This paper describes the qualitative study design of the Healthy Young Men's Study, a longitudinal mixed method study with an ethnically diverse cohort of young men who have sex with men (YMSM) (N = 526) in Los Angeles. Integral to this discussion is how a mixed methods study can address common challenges such as sampling, representation and integration of both datasets.

Deconstructing the complexity of substance use among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) by optimizing the role of qualitative strategies in a mixed methods study

PubMed Central

Kubicek, Katrina; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F.; Kipke, Michele D.

2010-01-01

Qualitative data can be a powerful tool in developing interventions for substance use and other HIV-risk behaviors. Mixed-methods design offers researchers the ability to obtain data that provides both breadth and depth to their research. However, the integration of qualitative data in mixed-methods research has been limited. This paper describes the qualitative design of the Healthy Young Men’s Study, a longitudinal mixed-method study with an ethnically diverse cohort of young men who have sex with men (YMSM) (N=526) in Los Angeles. Integral to this discussion is how a mixed-methods study can address common challenges such as sampling, representation and integration. PMID:20222783

The ABCs of Non-Toxic Pest Control.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Susan

1990-01-01

Although chemical-intensive pest control methods have proven reasonably effective, a growing awareness of health and environmental risks associated with pesticides has sharpened public interest in safer alternatives. An integrated pest management approach reduces risks from pests while minimizing human exposure and reducing the toxicity of applied…

Reconnecting with Nature: Educational Self-Esteem Sensory Activities for Reducing Drug Use and Irresponsible Relationships in Students at Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Kurtland; Cohen, Michael J.

A model of an integrated ecologically-based counseling and recovery program is explored as a means of incorporating educational and psychological nature-connecting methods and materials with traditional recovery activities for people at risk and as a preventative. The first part of the program introduces high-risk high school students, most of…

A web-based personalized risk communication and decision-making tool for women with dense breasts: Design and methods of a randomized controlled trial within an integrated health care system.

PubMed

Knerr, Sarah; Wernli, Karen J; Leppig, Kathleen; Ehrlich, Kelly; Graham, Amanda L; Farrell, David; Evans, Chalanda; Luta, George; Schwartz, Marc D; O'Neill, Suzanne C

2017-05-01

Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer after age and family history. Mandatory breast density disclosure policies are increasing nationally without clear guidance on how to communicate density status to women. Coupling density disclosure with personalized risk counseling and decision support through a web-based tool may be an effective way to allow women to make informed, values-consistent risk management decisions without increasing distress. This paper describes the design and methods of Engaged, a prospective, randomized controlled trial examining the effect of online personalized risk counseling and decision support on risk management decisions in women with dense breasts and increased breast cancer risk. The trial is embedded in a large integrated health care system in the Pacific Northwest. A total of 1250 female health plan members aged 40-69 with a recent negative screening mammogram who are at increased risk for interval cancer based on their 5-year breast cancer risk and BI-RADS® breast density will be randomly assigned to access either a personalized web-based counseling and decision support tool or standard educational content. Primary outcomes will be assessed using electronic health record data (i.e., chemoprevention and breast MRI utilization) and telephone surveys (i.e., distress) at baseline, six weeks, and twelve months. Engaged will provide evidence about whether a web-based personalized risk counseling and decision support tool is an effective method for communicating with women about breast density and risk management. An effective intervention could be disseminated with minimal clinical burden to align with density disclosure mandates. Clinical Trials Registration Number:NCT03029286. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Common genetic variants related to genomic integrity and risk of papillary thyroid cancer

PubMed Central

Neta, Gila; Brenner, Alina V.; Sturgis, Erich M.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Hutchinson, Amy A.; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Yeager, Meredith; Xu, Li; Wheeler, William; Abend, Michael; Ron, Elaine; Tucker, Margaret A.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Sigurdson, Alice J.

2011-01-01

DNA damage is an important mechanism in carcinogenesis, so genes related to maintaining genomic integrity may influence papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) risk. Candidate gene studies targeting some of these genes have identified only a few polymorphisms associated with risk of PTC. Here, we expanded the scope of previous candidate studies by increasing the number and coverage of genes related to maintenance of genomic integrity. We evaluated 5077 tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 340 candidate gene regions hypothesized to be involved in DNA repair, epigenetics, tumor suppression, apoptosis, telomere function and cell cycle control and signaling pathways in a case–control study of 344 PTC cases and 452 matched controls. We estimated odds ratios for associations of single SNPs with PTC risk and combined P values for SNPs in the same gene region or pathway to obtain gene region-specific or pathway-specific P values using adaptive rank-truncated product methods. Nine SNPs had P values <0.0005, three of which were in HDAC4 and were inversely related to PTC risk. After multiple comparisons adjustment, no SNPs remained associated with PTC risk. Seven gene regions were associated with PTC risk at P < 0.01, including HUS1, ALKBH3, HDAC4, BAK1, FAF1_CDKN2C, DACT3 and FZD6. Our results suggest a possible role of genes involved in maintenance of genomic integrity in relation to risk of PTC. PMID:21642358

An overview of data integration methods for regional assessment.

PubMed

Locantore, Nicholas W; Tran, Liem T; O'Neill, Robert V; McKinnis, Peter W; Smith, Elizabeth R; O'Connell, Michael

2004-06-01

The U.S. Environmental Protections Agency's (U.S. EPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment(ReVA) program has focused much of its research over the last five years on developing and evaluating integration methods for spatial data. An initial strategic priority was to use existing data from monitoring programs, model results, and other spatial data. Because most of these data were not collected with an intention of integrating into a regional assessment of conditions and vulnerabilities, issues exist that may preclude the use of some methods or require some sort of data preparation. Additionally, to support multi-criteria decision-making, methods need to be able to address a series of assessment questions that provide insights into where environmental risks are a priority. This paper provides an overview of twelve spatial integration methods that can be applied towards regional assessment, along with preliminary results as to how sensitive each method is to data issues that will likely be encountered with the use of existing data.

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

PubMed Central

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-01-01

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution. PMID:26308032

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China.

PubMed

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-08-21

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.

Information Security and Integrity Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Viewgraphs from the Information Security and Integrity Systems seminar held at the University of Houston-Clear Lake on May 15-16, 1990 are presented. A tutorial on computer security is presented. The goals of this tutorial are the following: to review security requirements imposed by government and by common sense; to examine risk analysis methods to help keep sight of forest while in trees; to discuss the current hot topic of viruses (which will stay hot); to examine network security, now and in the next year to 30 years; to give a brief overview of encryption; to review protection methods in operating systems; to review database security problems; to review the Trusted Computer System Evaluation Criteria (Orange Book); to comment on formal verification methods; to consider new approaches (like intrusion detection and biometrics); to review the old, low tech, and still good solutions; and to give pointers to the literature and to where to get help. Other topics covered include security in software applications and development; risk management; trust: formal methods and associated techniques; secure distributed operating system and verification; trusted Ada; a conceptual model for supporting a B3+ dynamic multilevel security and integrity in the Ada runtime environment; and information intelligence sciences.

Determining an appropriate integrated assessment model of tourism safety risk within the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lijun; Liu, Jisheng

2017-03-01

Tourism safety is gradually gaining more attention due to the rapid development of the tourism industry in China. Changbai Mountain is one of the most famous mountainous scenic areas in Northeast Asia. Assessment on Changbai Mountain scenic area’s tourism safety risk could do a favor in detecting influence factor of tourism safety risk and classifying tourism safety risk rank, thereby reducing and preventing associated tourism safety risks. This paper uses the Changbai Mountain scenic area as the study subject. By the means of experts scoring and analytic hierarchy process on quantified relevant evaluation indicator, the grid GIS method is used to vectorize the relevant data within a 1000m grid. It respectively analyzes main indicators associated tourism safety risk in Changbai Mountain scenic area, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability and ability to prevent and mitigate disasters. The integrated tourism safety risk model is used to comprehensively evaluate tourism safety risk in Changbai Mountain scenic area.

Modelling determinants, impact, and space-time risk of age-specific mortality in rural South Africa: integrating methods to enhance policy relevance.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn

2013-01-24

There is a lack of reliable data in developing countries to inform policy and optimise resource allocation. Health and socio-demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) have the potential to address this gap. Mortality levels and trends have previously been documented in rural South Africa. However, complex space-time clustering of mortality, determinants, and their impact has not been fully examined. To integrate advanced methods enhance the understanding of the dynamics of mortality in space-time, to identify mortality risk factors and population attributable impact, to relate disparities in risk factor distributions to spatial mortality risk, and thus, to improve policy planning and resource allocation. Agincourt HDSS supplied data for the period 1992-2008. Advanced spatial techniques were used to identify significant age-specific mortality 'hotspots' in space-time. Multivariable Bayesian models were used to assess the effects of the most significant covariates on mortality. Disparities in risk factor profiles in identified hotspots were assessed. Increasing HIV-related mortality and a subsequent decrease possibly attributable to antiretroviral therapy introduction are evident in this rural population. Distinct space-time clustering and variation (even in a small geographic area) of mortality were observed. Several known and novel risk factors were identified, and population impact was quantified. Significant differences in the risk factor profiles of the identified 'hotspots' included ethnicity; maternal, partner, and household deaths; household head demographics; migrancy; education; and poverty. A complex interaction of highly attributable multilevel factors continues to demonstrate differential space-time influences on mortality risk (especially for HIV). High-risk households and villages displayed differential risk factor profiles. This integrated approach could prove valuable to decision makers. Tailored interventions for specific child and adult high-risk mortality areas are needed, such as preventing vertical transmission, ensuring maternal survival, and improving water and sanitation infrastructure. This framework can be applied in other settings within the region.

Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

PubMed

Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

2013-06-01

Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

Optimal groundwater security management policies by control of inexact health risks under dual uncertainty in slope factors.

PubMed

Lu, Hongwei; Li, Jing; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong

2018-05-01

Groundwater remediation is a complicated system with time-consuming and costly challenges, which should be carefully controlled by appropriate groundwater management. This study develops an integrated optimization method for groundwater remediation management regarding cost, contamination distribution and health risk under multiple uncertainties. The integration of health risk into groundwater remediation optimization management is capable of not only adequately considering the influence of health risk on optimal remediation strategies, but also simultaneously completing remediation optimization design and risk assessment. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming approach is presented to handle multiple uncertain properties in the process of health risk assessment. The capabilities and effectiveness of the developed method are illustrated through an application of a naphthalene contaminated case in Anhui, China. Results indicate that (a) the pump-and-treat remediation system leads to a low naphthalene contamination but high remediation cost for a short-time remediation, and natural attenuation significantly affects naphthalene removal from groundwater for a long-time remediation; (b) the weighting coefficients have significant influences on the remediation cost and the performances both for naphthalene concentrations and health risks; (c) an increased level of slope factor (sf) for naphthalene corresponds to more optimal strategies characterized by higher environmental benefits and lower economic sacrifice. The developed method could be simultaneously beneficial for public health and environmental protection. Decision makers could obtain the most appropriate remediation strategies according to their specific requirements with high flexibility of economic, environmental, and risk concerns. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[An integrated assessment method of ecological quality status in coastal waters: taking Tong'an Bay as a case].

PubMed

Chen, Zhao-hua; Wu, Hai-yan; Chen, Ke-liang; Chen, Qing-hui; Wu, Ji-chun; Zhang, Jing-fei

2011-07-01

Based on the integrated assessment methods of ecological quality status (EcoQS) in coastal waters abroad as well as the domestic related research status, 11 indices were selected from the biotic and physicochemical elements of water and sediment to built an integrated EcoQS assessment index system, and, with the comprehensive consideration of domestic and international evaluation standards, 5 levels of EcoQS classified as "high, good, moderate, poor, and bad" were determined. Then, an integrated assessment method of EcoQS in coastal waters was established by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics method, and tested by the analysis of the correlations between the EcoQS grade and the major anthropogenic disturbances and pollutant concentrations of Tong' an Bay. The EcoQS of Tong' an Bay was assessed as moderate, i.e., the Bay was moderately disturbed and in transitional to poor status. The established integrated assessment method could not only reflect the major anthropogenic environmental pressure and risk factors, but also give an early warning of the pollutants satisfied by law in the study area.

Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

PubMed

Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

2011-09-10

In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

PubMed

McGuire, Thomas G; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2013-12-01

In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Noninvasive assessment of arterial function in children: clinical applications

PubMed Central

Aggoun, Y; Beghetti, M

2002-01-01

Non invasive methods to assess arterial function are widely used in adults. The development and progression of arterial vascular disease is a multifactorial process that can start early in life, thus even in a pediatric population. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease mediate their effects by altering the structure, properties and function of wall and endothelial components of the arterial blood vessels. The ability to detect and monitor sub-clinical damage, representing the cumulative and integrated influence of risk factors in impairing arterial wall integrity, holds potential to further refine cardiovascular risk stratification and enable early intervention to prevent or attenuate disease progression. Measurements that provide more direct information in relation to changes in arterial wall integrity clearly hold predictive and therapeutic potential. The aim of this current review will be to describe the non-invasive procedure used in children to investigate the mechanical properties of a great elastic artery, the common carotid, and the endothelial function of the brachial artery. The accuracy of recording noninvasively the blood pressure wave contour along the arterial tree has been improved by the technique of applanation tonometry. The results obtained with these methods in previous studies are described. PMID:22368620

Evaluation of Container Closure System Integrity for Frozen Storage Drug Products.

PubMed

Nieto, Alejandra; Roehl, Holger; Brown, Helen; Nikoloff, Jonas; Adler, Michael; Mahler, Hanns-Christian

2016-01-01

Sometimes, drug product for parenteral administration is stored in a frozen state (e.g., -20 °C or -80 °C), particularly during early stages of development of some biotech molecules in order to provide sufficient stability. Shipment of frozen product could potentially be performed in the frozen state, yet possibly at different temperatures, for example, using dry ice (-80 °C). Container closure systems of drug products usually consist of a glass vial, rubber stopper, and an aluminum crimped cap. In the frozen state, the glass transition temperature (Tg) of commonly used rubber stoppers is between -55 and -65 °C. Below their Tg, rubber stoppers are known to lose their elastic properties and become brittle, and thus potentially fail to maintain container closure integrity in the frozen state. Leaks during frozen temperature storage and transportation are likely to be transient, yet, can possibly risk container closure integrity and lead to microbial contamination. After thawing, the rubber stopper is supposed to re-seal the container closure system. Given the transient nature of the possible impact on container closure integrity in the frozen state, typical container closure integrity testing methods (used at room temperature conditions) are unable to evaluate and thus confirm container closure integrity in the frozen state. Here we present the development of a novel method (thermal physical container closure integrity) for direct assessment of container closure integrity by a physical method (physical container closure integrity) at frozen conditions, using a modified He leakage test. In this study, different container closure systems were evaluated with regard to physical container closure integrity in the frozen state to assess the suitability of vial/stopper combinations and were compared to a gas headspace method. In summary, the thermal physical container closure integrity He leakage method was more sensitive in detecting physical container closure integrity impact than gas headspace and aided identification of an unsuitable container closure system. Sometimes, drug product for parenteral administration is stored in a frozen state (e.g., -20 °C or -80 °C), particularly during early stages of development of some biotech molecules in order to provide sufficient stability. Container closure systems for drug products usually consist of a glass vial, rubber stopper, and an aluminum crimped cap. In the frozen state, the glass transition temperature (Tg) of commonly used rubber stoppers is between -55 and -65 °C. Leaks during frozen temperature storage and transportation are likely to be transient, yet they can possibly risk container closure integrity and lead to microbial contamination and sterility breach. After thawing, the rubber stopper is expected to re-seal the container closure system. Given the transient nature of the possible impact on container closure integrity in the frozen state, typical container closure integrity testing methods (used at room temperature conditions) are unable to evaluate and thus confirm container closure integrity in the frozen state. Here we present the development of a novel method (thermal container closure integrity) for direct measurement of container closure integrity by a physical method (physical container closure integrity) at frozen conditions, using a modified He leakage test. In this study, we found that the thermal container closure integrity He leakage method was more sensitive in detecting physical container closure integrity impact than gas headspace and aided identification of an unsuitable container closure system. © PDA, Inc. 2016.

A BHR Composite Network-Based Visualization Method for Deformation Risk Level of Underground Space

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wei; Zhang, Xiaoya; Lu, Qi

2015-01-01

This study proposes a visualization processing method for the deformation risk level of underground space. The proposed method is based on a BP-Hopfield-RGB (BHR) composite network. Complex environmental factors are integrated in the BP neural network. Dynamic monitoring data are then automatically classified in the Hopfield network. The deformation risk level is combined with the RGB color space model and is displayed visually in real time, after which experiments are conducted with the use of an ultrasonic omnidirectional sensor device for structural deformation monitoring. The proposed method is also compared with some typical methods using a benchmark dataset. Results show that the BHR composite network visualizes the deformation monitoring process in real time and can dynamically indicate dangerous zones. PMID:26011618

A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

2010-12-01

Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

Clinical evaluation incorporating a personal genome

PubMed Central

Ashley, Euan A.; Butte, Atul J.; Wheeler, Matthew T.; Chen, Rong; Klein, Teri E.; Dewey, Frederick E.; Dudley, Joel T.; Ormond, Kelly E.; Pavlovic, Aleksandra; Hudgins, Louanne; Gong, Li; Hodges, Laura M.; Berlin, Dorit S.; Thorn, Caroline F.; Sangkuhl, Katrin; Hebert, Joan M.; Woon, Mark; Sagreiya, Hersh; Whaley, Ryan; Morgan, Alexander A.; Pushkarev, Dmitry; Neff, Norma F; Knowles, Joshua W.; Chou, Mike; Thakuria, Joseph; Rosenbaum, Abraham; Zaranek, Alexander Wait; Church, George; Greely, Henry T.; Quake, Stephen R.; Altman, Russ B.

2010-01-01

Background The cost of genomic information has fallen steeply but the path to clinical translation of risk estimates for common variants found in genome wide association studies remains unclear. Since the speed and cost of sequencing complete genomes is rapidly declining, more comprehensive means of analyzing these data in concert with rare variants for genetic risk assessment and individualisation of therapy are required. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of a complete human genome in a clinical context. Methods An individual with a family history of vascular disease and early sudden death was evaluated. Clinical assessment included risk prediction for coronary artery disease, screening for causes of sudden cardiac death, and genetic counselling. Genetic analysis included the development of novel methods for the integration of whole genome sequence data including 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms and 752 copy number variations. The algorithm focused on predicting genetic risk of genes associated with known Mendelian disease, recognised drug responses, and pathogenicity for novel variants. In addition, since integration of risk ratios derived from case control studies is challenging, we estimated posterior probabilities from age and sex appropriate prior probability and likelihood ratios derived for each genotype. In addition, we developed a visualisation approach to account for gene-environment interactions and conditionally dependent risks. Findings We found increased genetic risk for myocardial infarction, type II diabetes and certain cancers. Rare variants in LPA are consistent with the family history of coronary artery disease. Pharmacogenomic analysis suggested a positive response to lipid lowering therapy, likely clopidogrel resistance, and a low initial dosing requirement for warfarin. Many variants of uncertain significance were reported. Interpretation Although challenges remain, our results suggest that whole genome sequencing can yield useful and clinically relevant information for individual patients, especially for those with a strong family history of significant disease. PMID:20435227

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2016-01-25

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships between childhood sexual abuse and substance use and sexual risk behaviors during adolescence: An integrative review.

PubMed

Draucker, Claire Burke; Mazurczyk, Jill

2013-01-01

Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) is thought to be a precursor to substance use and sexual risk behaviors during adolescence. To inform adolescent prevention efforts, information is needed to explicate the nature of the relationships between CSA and these health risks. The aim of this study was to summarize the current literature on the associations between a history of CSA and substance use and sexual risk behaviors during adolescence. We conducted a systematic literature search and an integrative review. Current evidence implicates CSA as a robust precursor to the use of a wide variety of substances and multiple sexual risk behaviors during adolescence. Screening for CSA in adolescents at risk and incorporating strategies that enhance CSA recovery in adolescent prevention programs are warranted. Future research that includes longitudinal designs, uses multiple methods of assessment, and identifies pathways between CSA and adolescent health risks is recommended. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

DEVELOPMENT OF TOOLS TO ASSESS THE EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL, POPULATION, AND SPATIAL LEVELS: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE STRESSORS ON PISCIVOROUS BIRDS

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Research Laboratory's Wildlife Risk Assessment program is to develop scientifically valid methods to assess risks to wildlife and aquatic organisms from multiple stressors. To this end, the Loo...

US EPA - A*Star Partnership - Accelerating the Acceptance of Next-Generation Sciences and Their Application to Regulatory Risk Assessment (A*Star Symposium, Singapore)

EPA Science Inventory

The path for incorporating new alternative methods and technologies into quantitative chemical risk assessment poses a diverse set of scientific challenges. Some of these challenges include development of relevant and predictive test systems and computational models to integrate...

An integrated Shannon's Entropy-TOPSIS methodology for environmental risk assessment of Helleh protected area in Iran.

PubMed

Jozi, S A; Shafiee, M; MoradiMajd, N; Saffarian, S

2012-11-01

This study aims to use integrated Shannon's Entropy-TOPSIS methodology for environmental risk assessment of the Helleh protected area in Iran. In this research, first, with regard to field visits, interview with natives of the area, and investigation of the environment of the study area, the risks existing in the region were identified. Then, for final identification of the risks, the Delphi method was applied. Analysis and prioritization of risks of the area of Helleh were performed by multi-criteria decision-making methods of Shannon's Entropy and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In this research, risks were assessed by three criteria of severity, probability of occurrence, and vulnerability. Twenty six of the risks were identified which were specified in two groups, natural events and environmental risks. The environmental ones were classified into four groups: physicochemical, biological, social-economic, and cultural. Results of the research showed that the construction of the Rayis-Ali-Delvari Dam at the upper part of the study area threatens the wetland. Water supply for the dam 75 km away from the area with concession of 0.9999 holds the first priority of risk-generating factors. Of the managerial workable solutions suggested controlling the risks, the stopping of the pumping of water from the wetland and observation of hunting season length and permissible type and number of hunting in the area can be mentioned.

Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Zhong, Minzhou; Zeng, Guangming; Chen, Gaojie; Hua, Shanshan; Li, Xiaodong; Yuan, Yujie; Wu, Haipeng; Gao, Xiang

2017-02-01

Land-use change has direct impact on ecosystem services and alters ecosystem services values (ESVs). Ecosystem services analysis is beneficial for land management and decisions. However, the application of ESVs for decision-making in land use decisions is scarce. In this paper, a method, integrating ESVs to balance future ecosystem-service benefit and risk, is developed to optimize investment in land for ecological conservation in land use planning. Using ecological conservation in land use planning in Changsha as an example, ESVs is regarded as the expected ecosystem-service benefit. And uncertainty of land use change is regarded as risk. This method can optimize allocation of investment in land to improve ecological benefit. The result shows that investment should be partial to Liuyang City to get higher benefit. The investment should also be shifted from Liuyang City to other regions to reduce risk. In practice, lower limit and upper limit for weight distribution, which affects optimal outcome and selection of investment allocation, should be set in investment. This method can reveal the optimal spatial allocation of investment to maximize the expected ecosystem-service benefit at a given level of risk or minimize risk at a given level of expected ecosystem-service benefit. Our results of optimal analyses highlight tradeoffs between future ecosystem-service benefit and uncertainty of land use change in land use decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advanced Mechanistic 3D Spatial Modeling and Analysis Methods to Accurately Represent Nuclear Facility External Event Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sezen, Halil; Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, R.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants initially focused on events initiated by internal faults at the plant, rather than external hazards including earthquakes and flooding. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for analyzing low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often resulting in substantial conservatism. This research developed a framework to integrate the risk of seismic and flooding events using realistic structural models and simulation of response of nuclear structures. The results of four application case studies are presented.

Art Integration Fosters Empathy in the Middle School Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradshaw, R. Darden

2016-01-01

In this article, I highlight findings from a nine-day unit embedded within a larger, four-month long qualitative action research study set in a public middle school. My goal in conducting this research was examination of relationships between visual culture and art integration as a method of fostering students to find voice while taking risks. A…

A risk-management approach for effective integration of biomarkers in clinical trials: perspectives of an NCI, NCRI, and EORTC working group.

PubMed

Hall, Jacqueline Anne; Salgado, Roberto; Lively, Tracy; Sweep, Fred; Schuh, Anna

2014-04-01

Clinical cancer research today often includes testing the value of biomarkers to direct treatment and for drug development. However, the practical challenges of integration of molecular information into clinical trial protocols are increasingly appreciated. Inherent difficulties include evidence gaps in available biomarker data, a paucity of robust assay methods, and the design of appropriate studies within the constraints of feasible trial operations, and finite resources. Scalable and proportionate approaches are needed to systematically cope with these challenges. Therefore, we assembled international experts from three clinical trials organisations to identify the common challenges and common solutions. We present a practical risk-assessment framework allowing targeting of scarce resources to crucial issues coupled with a library of useful resources and a simple actionable checklist of recommendations. We hope that these practical methods will be useful for running biomarker-driven trials and ultimately help to develop biomarkers that are ready for integration in routine practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

2013-01-01

Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

Dynamic drought risk assessment using crop model and remote sensing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, H.; Su, Z.; Lv, J.; Li, L.; Wang, Y.

2017-02-01

Drought risk assessment is of great significance to reduce the loss of agricultural drought and ensure food security. The normally drought risk assessment method is to evaluate its exposure to the hazard and the vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage for a specific region, which is a static evaluation method. The Dynamic Drought Risk Assessment (DDRA) is to estimate the drought risk according to the crop growth and water stress conditions in real time. In this study, a DDRA method using crop model and remote sensing techniques was proposed. The crop model we employed is DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. The drought risk was quantified by the yield losses predicted by the crop model in a scenario-based method. The crop model was re-calibrated to improve the performance by the Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrieved from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. And the in-situ station-based crop model was extended to assess the regional drought risk by integrating crop planted mapping. The crop planted area was extracted with extended CPPI method from MODIS data. This study was implemented and validated on maize crop in Liaoning province, China.

Message framing with respect to decisions about vaccination: the roles of frame valence, frame method and perceived risk.

PubMed

Ferguson, Eamonn; Gallagher, Laura

2007-11-01

People respond differently when information is framed either positively or negatively (frame valence). Two prominent models propose that the effects of valence are moderated by (1) the method of framing (attributes vs. goals: Levin, Schneider, & Gaeth, 1998) and (2) perceived risk (Rothman & Salovey, 1997). This experiment (N=200) explores the joint influence of both of these moderators with respect to decisions about a flu vaccination. The study extends previous work by integrating these two models and exploring the moderating effects of two different aspects of perceived risk (personal outcome effectiveness and procedural risk). The results show that personal outcome effectiveness indirectly links frames to intentions. Procedural risk moderates the relationship between valence and method in a manner consistent with predictions from Levin et al.. Partial support for the model proposed by Rothman and Salovey are observed for goal frames only.

Prevalence of Salmonella on retail broiler chicken meat carcasses in Colombia.

PubMed

Donado-Godoy, Pilar; Clavijo, Viviana; León, Maribel; Tafur, Mc Allister; Gonzales, Sebastian; Hume, Michael; Alali, Walid; Walls, Isabel; Lo Fo Wong, Danilo M A; Doyle, M P

2012-06-01

A cross-sectional study was performed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on retail market chicken carcasses in Colombia. A total of 1,003 broiler chicken carcasses from 23 departments (one city per department) were collected via a stratified sampling method. Carcass rinses were tested for the presence of Salmonella by conventional culture methods. Salmonella strains were isolated from 27 % of the carcasses sampled. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine potential risk factors for Salmonella contamination associated with the chicken production system (conventional versus free-range), storage condition (chilled versus frozen), retail store type (supermarket, independent, and wet market), poultry company (integrated company versus nonintegrated company), and socioeconomic stratum. Chickens from a nonintegrated poultry company were associated with a significantly (P < 0.05) greater risk of Salmonella contamination (odds ratio, 2.0) than were chickens from an integrated company. Chilled chickens had a significantly (P < 0.05) higher risk of Salmonella contamination (odds ratio, 4.3) than did frozen chicken carcasses.

Integrating Phylodynamics and Epidemiology to Estimate Transmission Diversity in Viral Epidemics

PubMed Central

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Sypsa, Vana; Magiorkinis, Emmanouil; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Katsoulidou, Antigoni; Belshaw, Robert; Fraser, Christophe; Pybus, Oliver George; Hatzakis, Angelos

2013-01-01

The epidemiology of chronic viral infections, such as those caused by Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), is affected by the risk group structure of the infected population. Risk groups are defined by each of their members having acquired infection through a specific behavior. However, risk group definitions say little about the transmission potential of each infected individual. Variation in the number of secondary infections is extremely difficult to estimate for HCV and HIV but crucial in the design of efficient control interventions. Here we describe a novel method that combines epidemiological and population genetic approaches to estimate the variation in transmissibility of rapidly-evolving viral epidemics. We evaluate this method using a nationwide HCV epidemic and for the first time co-estimate viral generation times and superspreading events from a combination of molecular and epidemiological data. We anticipate that this integrated approach will form the basis of powerful tools for describing the transmission dynamics of chronic viral diseases, and for evaluating control strategies directed against them. PMID:23382662

Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

PubMed

Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

2017-11-01

Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Looking beyond borders: integrating best practices in benefit-risk analysis into the field of food and nutrition.

PubMed

Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk analysis towards conceiving the analysis as a process of creating shared knowledge among all stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vertical integration and organizational networks in health care.

PubMed

Robinson, J C; Casalino, L P

1996-01-01

This paper documents the growing linkages between primary care-centered medical groups and specialists and between physicians and hospitals under managed care. We evaluate the two alternative forms of organizational coordination: "vertical integration," based on unified ownership, and "virtual integration," based on contractual networks. Excess capacity and the need for investment capital are major short-term determinants of these vertical versus virtual integration decisions in health care. In the longer term, the principal determinants are economies of scale, risk-bearing ability, transaction costs, and the capacity for innovation in methods of managing care.

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

PubMed

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

A fluorescence high throughput screening method for the detection of reactive electrophiles as potential skin sensitizers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Skin sensitization is an important toxicological end-point in the risk assessment of chemical allergens. Because of the complexity of the biological mechanisms associated with skin sensitization integrated approaches combining different chemical, biological and in silico methods are recommended to r...

Mine safety assessment using gray relational analysis and bow tie model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. PMID:29561875

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Monte Carlo methods for multidimensional integration for European option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorov, V.; Dimov, I. T.

2016-10-01

In this paper, we illustrate examples of highly accurate Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods for multiple integrals related to the evaluation of European style options. The idea is that the value of the option is formulated in terms of the expectation of some random variable; then the average of independent samples of this random variable is used to estimate the value of the option. First we obtain an integral representation for the value of the option using the risk neutral valuation formula. Then with an appropriations change of the constants we obtain a multidimensional integral over the unit hypercube of the corresponding dimensionality. Then we compare a specific type of lattice rules over one of the best low discrepancy sequence of Sobol for numerical integration. Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are compared with Adaptive and Crude Monte Carlo techniques for solving the problem. The four approaches are completely different thus it is a question of interest to know which one of them outperforms the other for evaluation multidimensional integrals in finance. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of the developed algorithms are discussed.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

PubMed

Li, Yan

2017-05-25

The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

A Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2006-01-01

The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. The term safely means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences (for example, excess lifetime fatal cancer risk) can be defined. The Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the understanding of health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus the fourth element develops computer codes to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

GPS navigation algorithms for Autonomous Airborne Refueling of Unmanned Air Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanafseh, Samer Mahmoud

Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) have recently generated great interest because of their potential to perform hazardous missions without risking loss of life. If autonomous airborne refueling is possible for UAVs, mission range and endurance will be greatly enhanced. However, concerns about UAV-tanker proximity, dynamic mobility and safety demand that the relative navigation system meets stringent requirements on accuracy, integrity, and continuity. In response, this research focuses on developing high-performance GPS-based navigation architectures for Autonomous Airborne Refueling (AAR) of UAVs. The AAR mission is unique because of the potentially severe sky blockage introduced by the tanker. To address this issue, a high-fidelity dynamic sky blockage model was developed and experimentally validated. In addition, robust carrier phase differential GPS navigation algorithms were derived, including a new method for high-integrity reacquisition of carrier cycle ambiguities for recently-blocked satellites. In order to evaluate navigation performance, world-wide global availability and sensitivity covariance analyses were conducted. The new navigation algorithms were shown to be sufficient for turn-free scenarios, but improvement in performance was necessary to meet the difficult requirements for a general refueling mission with banked turns. Therefore, several innovative methods were pursued to enhance navigation performance. First, a new theoretical approach was developed to quantify the position-domain integrity risk in cycle ambiguity resolution problems. A mechanism to implement this method with partially-fixed cycle ambiguity vectors was derived, and it was used to define tight upper bounds on AAR navigation integrity risk. A second method, where a new algorithm for optimal fusion of measurements from multiple antennas was developed, was used to improve satellite coverage in poor visibility environments such as in AAR. Finally, methods for using data-link extracted measurements as an additional inter-vehicle ranging measurement were also introduced. The algorithms and methods developed in this work are generally applicable to realize high-performance GPS-based navigation in partially obstructed environments. Navigation performance for AAR was quantified through covariance analysis, and it was shown that the stringent navigation requirements for this application are achievable. Finally, a real-time implementation of the algorithms was developed and successfully validated in autopiloted flight tests.

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: •more » Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.« less

Integrated flood hazard assessment based on spatial ordered weighted averaging method considering spatial heterogeneity of risk preference.

PubMed

Xiao, Yangfan; Yi, Shanzhen; Tang, Zhongqian

2017-12-01

Flood is the most common natural hazard in the world and has caused serious loss of life and property. Assessment of flood prone areas is of great importance for watershed management and reduction of potential loss of life and property. In this study, a framework of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) incorporating geographic information system (GIS), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and spatial ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was developed for flood hazard assessment. The factors associated with geographical, hydrological and flood-resistant characteristics of the basin were selected as evaluation criteria. The relative importance of the criteria was estimated through fuzzy AHP method. The OWA method was utilized to analyze the effects of different risk attitudes of the decision maker on the assessment result. The spatial ordered weighted averaging method with spatially variable risk preference was implemented in the GIS environment to integrate the criteria. The advantage of the proposed method is that it has considered spatial heterogeneity in assigning risk preference in the decision-making process. The presented methodology has been applied to the area including Hanyang, Caidian and Hannan of Wuhan, China, where flood events occur frequently. The outcome of flood hazard distribution presents a tendency of high risk towards populated and developed areas, especially the northeast part of Hanyang city, which has suffered frequent floods in history. The result indicates where the enhancement projects should be carried out first under the condition of limited resources. Finally, sensitivity of the criteria weights was analyzed to measure the stability of results with respect to the variation of the criteria weights. The flood hazard assessment method presented in this paper is adaptable for hazard assessment of a similar basin, which is of great significance to establish counterplan to mitigate life and property losses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An instrument for broadened risk assessment in antenatal health care including non-medical issues

PubMed Central

Vos, Amber A.; van Veen, Mieke J.; Birnie, Erwin; Denktaş, Semiha; Steegers, Eric A.P.; Bonsel, Gouke J.

2015-01-01

Introduction Growing evidence on the risk contributing role of non-medical factors on pregnancy outcomes urged for a new approach in early antenatal risk selection. The evidence invites to more integration, in particular between the clinical working area and the public health domain. We developed a non-invasive, standardized instrument for comprehensive antenatal risk assessment. The current study presents the application-oriented development of a risk screening instrument for early antenatal detection of risk factors and tailored prevention in an integrated care setting. Methods A review of published instruments complemented with evidence from cohort studies. Selection and standardization of risk factors associated with small for gestational age, preterm birth, congenital anomalies and perinatal mortality. Risk factors were weighted to obtain a cumulative risk score. Responses were then connected to corresponding care pathways. A cumulative risk threshold was defined, which can be adapted to the population and the availability of preventive facilities. A score above the threshold implies multidisciplinary consultation between caregivers. Results The resulting digital score card consisted of 70 items, subdivided into four non-medical and two medical domains. Weighing of risk factors was based on existing evidence. Pilot-evidence from a cohort of 218 pregnancies in a multi-practice urban setting showed a cut-off of 16 points would imply 20% of all pregnant women to be assessed in a multidisciplinary setting. A total of 28 care pathways were defined. Conclusion The resulting score card is a universal risk screening instrument which incorporates recent evidence on non-medical risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes and enables systematic risk management in an integrated antenatal health care setting. PMID:25780351

Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

PubMed

Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

2016-12-01

There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Verification of recursive probabilistic integration (RPI) method for fatigue life management using non-destructive inspections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tzikang J.; Shiao, Michael

2016-04-01

This paper verified a generic and efficient assessment concept for probabilistic fatigue life management. The concept is developed based on an integration of damage tolerance methodology, simulations methods1, 2, and a probabilistic algorithm RPI (recursive probability integration)3-9 considering maintenance for damage tolerance and risk-based fatigue life management. RPI is an efficient semi-analytical probabilistic method for risk assessment subjected to various uncertainties such as the variability in material properties including crack growth rate, initial flaw size, repair quality, random process modeling of flight loads for failure analysis, and inspection reliability represented by probability of detection (POD). In addition, unlike traditional Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) which requires a rerun of MCS when maintenance plan is changed, RPI can repeatedly use a small set of baseline random crack growth histories excluding maintenance related parameters from a single MCS for various maintenance plans. In order to fully appreciate the RPI method, a verification procedure was performed. In this study, MC simulations in the orders of several hundred billions were conducted for various flight conditions, material properties, and inspection scheduling, POD and repair/replacement strategies. Since the MC simulations are time-consuming methods, the simulations were conducted parallelly on DoD High Performance Computers (HPC) using a specialized random number generator for parallel computing. The study has shown that RPI method is several orders of magnitude more efficient than traditional Monte Carlo simulations.

Path optimization method for the sign problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohnishi, Akira; Mori, Yuto; Kashiwa, Kouji

2018-03-01

We propose a path optimization method (POM) to evade the sign problem in the Monte-Carlo calculations for complex actions. Among many approaches to the sign problem, the Lefschetz-thimble path-integral method and the complex Langevin method are promising and extensively discussed. In these methods, real field variables are complexified and the integration manifold is determined by the flow equations or stochastically sampled. When we have singular points of the action or multiple critical points near the original integral surface, however, we have a risk to encounter the residual and global sign problems or the singular drift term problem. One of the ways to avoid the singular points is to optimize the integration path which is designed not to hit the singular points of the Boltzmann weight. By specifying the one-dimensional integration-path as z = t +if(t)(f ɛ R) and by optimizing f(t) to enhance the average phase factor, we demonstrate that we can avoid the sign problem in a one-variable toy model for which the complex Langevin method is found to fail. In this proceedings, we propose POM and discuss how we can avoid the sign problem in a toy model. We also discuss the possibility to utilize the neural network to optimize the path.

A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

PubMed

Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

2013-01-01

Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Detecting GNSS spoofing attacks using INS coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanil, Cagatay

Vulnerability of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) users to signal spoofing is a critical threat to positioning integrity, especially in aviation applications, where the consequences are potentially catastrophic. In response, this research describes and evaluates a new approach to directly detect spoofing using integrated Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) and fault detection concepts based on integrity monitoring. The monitors developed here can be implemented into positioning systems using INS/GNSS integration via 1) tightly-coupled, 2) loosely-coupled, and 3) uncoupled schemes. New evaluation methods enable the statistical computation of integrity risk resulting from a worst-case spoofing attack - without needing to simulate an unmanageably large number of individual aircraft approaches. Integrity risk is an absolute measure of safety and a well-established metric in aircraft navigation. A novel closed-form solution to the worst-case time sequence of GNSS signals is derived to maximize the integrity risk for each monitor and used in the covariance analyses. This methodology tests the performance of the monitors against the most sophisticated spoofers, capable of tracking the aircraft position - for example, by means of remote tracking or onboard sensing. Another contribution is a comprehensive closed-loop model that encapsulates the vehicle and compensator (estimator and controller) dynamics. A sensitivity analysis uses this model to quantify the leveraging impact of the vehicle's dynamic responses (e.g., to wind gusts, or to autopilot's acceleration commands) on the monitor's detection capability. The performance of the monitors is evaluated for two safety-critical terminal area navigation applications: 1) autonomous shipboard landing and 2) Boeing 747 (B747) landing assisted with Ground Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS). It is demonstrated that for both systems, the monitors are capable of meeting the most stringent precision approach and landing integrity requirements of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The statistical evaluation methods developed here can be used as a baseline procedure in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) certification of spoof-free navigation systems. The final contribution is an investigation of INS sensor quality on detection performance. This determines the minimum sensor requirements to perform standalone GNSS positioning in general en route applications with guaranteed spoofing detection integrity.

Planning & Priority Setting for Basic Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-05

Integrated into numerous commercial codes in aerospace, automotive , semiconductor, and chemical industries Fast Multipole Methods (ONR 31) Applications... Use knowledge (even failures) to reduce risk in acquisition Provide the basis for future Navy and arine Corps syste s Ensure research...relevancy to Naval S&T strategy Transition pro ising Basic Research to applications Use kno ledge (even failures) to reduce risk in acquisition Maintain

Preliminary candidate advanced avionics system for general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccalla, T. M.; Grismore, F. L.; Greatline, S. E.; Birkhead, L. M.

1977-01-01

An integrated avionics system design was carried out to the level which indicates subsystem function, and the methods of overall system integration. Sufficient detail was included to allow identification of possible system component technologies, and to perform reliability, modularity, maintainability, cost, and risk analysis upon the system design. Retrofit to older aircraft, availability of this system to the single engine two place aircraft, was considered.

Novel technologies and an overall strategy to allow hazard assessment and risk prediction of chemicals, cosmetics, and drugs with animal-free methods.

PubMed

Leist, Marcel; Lidbury, Brett A; Yang, Chihae; Hayden, Patrick J; Kelm, Jens M; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Detroyer, Ann; Meunier, Jean R; Rathman, James F; Jackson, George R; Stolper, Gina; Hasiwa, Nina

2012-01-01

Several alternative methods to replace animal experiments have been accepted by legal bodies. An even larger number of tests are under development or already in use for non-regulatory applications or for the generation of information stored in proprietary knowledge bases. The next step for the use of the different in vitro methods is their combination into integrated testing strategies (ITS) to get closer to the overall goal of predictive "in vitro-based risk evaluation processes." We introduce here a conceptual framework as the basis for future ITS and their use for risk evaluation without animal experiments. The framework allows incorporation of both individual tests and already integrated approaches. Illustrative examples for elements to be incorporated are drawn from the session "Innovative technologies" at the 8th World Congress on Alternatives and Animal Use in the Life Sciences, held in Montreal, 2011. For instance, LUHMES cells (conditionally immortalized human neurons) were presented as an example for a 2D cell system. The novel 3D platform developed by InSphero was chosen as an example for the design and use of scaffold-free, organotypic microtissues. The identification of critical pathways of toxicity (PoT) may be facilitated by approaches exemplified by the MatTek 3D model for human epithelial tissues with engineered toxicological reporter functions. The important role of in silico methods and of modeling based on various pre-existing data is demonstrated by Altamira's comprehensive approach to predicting a molecule's potential for skin irritancy. A final example demonstrates how natural variation in human genetics may be overcome using data analytic (pattern recognition) techniques borrowed from computer science and statistics. The overall hazard and risk assessment strategy integrating these different examples has been compiled in a graphical work flow.

Observational methods to assess the effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in reducing right colon cancer mortality risk: SCOLAR.

PubMed

Goodman, Michael; Fletcher, Robert H; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Jensen, Christopher D; Zebrowski, Alexis M; Becerra, Tracy A; Quinn, Virginia P; Zauber, Ann G; Corley, Douglas A; Doubeni, Chyke A

2015-11-01

Screening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing risk of death from right colon cancers remains unclear. Methodological challenges of existing observational studies addressing this issue motivated the design of 'Effectiveness of Screening for Colorectal Cancer in Average-Risk Adults (SCOLAR)'. SCOLAR is a nested case-control study based on two large integrated health systems. This affords access to a large, well-defined historical cohort linked to integrated data on cancer outcomes, patient eligibility, test indications and important confounders. We found electronic data adequate for excluding ineligible patients (except family history), but not the detailed information needed for test indication assignment. The lessons of SCOLAR's design and implementation may be useful for future studies seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of screening tests in community settings.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Sexual Pleasure and Sexual Risk among Women who Use Methamphetamine: A Mixed Methods Study

PubMed Central

Lorvick, Jennifer; Bourgois, Philippe; Wenger, Lynn D.; Arreola, Sonya G.; Lutnick, Alexandra; Wechsberg, Wendee M.; Kral, Alex H.

2012-01-01

Background The intersection of drug use, sexual pleasure and sexual risk behavior is rarely explored when it comes to poor women who use drugs. This paper explores the relationship between sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in a community-based sample of women, exploring not only risk, but also desire, pleasure and the challenges of overcoming trauma. Methods Quantitative data were collected using standard epidemiological methods (N=322) for community-based studies. In addition, using purposive sampling, qualitative data were collected among a subset of participants (n=34). Data were integrated for mixed methods analysis. Results While many participants reported sexual risk behavior (unprotected vaginal or anal intercourse) in the quantitative survey, sexual risk was not the central narrative pertaining to sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in qualitative findings. Rather, desire, pleasure and disinhibition arose as central themes. Women described feelings of power and agency related to sexual behavior while high on methamphetamine. Findings were mixed on whether methamphetamine use increased sexual risk behavior. Conclusion The use of mixed methods afforded important insights into the sexual behavior and priorities of methamphetamine-using women. Efforts to reduce sexual risk should recognize and valorize the positive aspects of methamphetamine use for some women, building on positive feelings of power and agency as an approach to harm minimization. PMID:22954501

A Four-Stage Method for Developing Early Interventions for Alcohol among Aboriginal Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mushquash, Christopher J.; Comeau, M. Nancy; McLeod, Brian D.; Stewart, Sherry H.

2010-01-01

This paper details a four-stage methodology for developing early alcohol interventions for at-risk Aboriginal youth. Stage 1 was an integrative approach to Aboriginal education that upholds Aboriginal traditional wisdom supporting respectful relationships to the Creator, to the land and to each other. Stage 2 used quantitative methods to…

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Integrating quantitative PCR and Bayesian statistics in quantifying human adenoviruses in small volumes of source water.

PubMed

Wu, Jianyong; Gronewold, Andrew D; Rodriguez, Roberto A; Stewart, Jill R; Sobsey, Mark D

2014-02-01

Rapid quantification of viral pathogens in drinking and recreational water can help reduce waterborne disease risks. For this purpose, samples in small volume (e.g. 1L) are favored because of the convenience of collection, transportation and processing. However, the results of viral analysis are often subject to uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, we propose an approach that integrates Bayesian statistics, efficient concentration methods, and quantitative PCR (qPCR) to quantify viral pathogens in water. Using this approach, we quantified human adenoviruses (HAdVs) in eighteen samples of source water collected from six drinking water treatment plants. HAdVs were found in seven samples. In the other eleven samples, HAdVs were not detected by qPCR, but might have existed based on Bayesian inference. Our integrated approach that quantifies uncertainty provides a better understanding than conventional assessments of potential risks to public health, particularly in cases when pathogens may present a threat but cannot be detected by traditional methods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

PubMed

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision-making process for chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

2009-01-01

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards

PubMed Central

Rooney, Andrew A.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Jahnke, Gloria D.; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Boyles, Abee L.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Schünemann, Holger J.; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Lunn, Ruth M.

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or “risk of bias” — the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program’s (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or “domains” for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. PMID:26857180

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards.

PubMed

Rooney, Andrew A; Cooper, Glinda S; Jahnke, Gloria D; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L; Boyles, Abee L; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M; Kraft, Andrew D; Schünemann, Holger J; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D; Thayer, Kristina A; Lunn, Ruth M

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or "risk of bias" - the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program's (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or "domains" for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New method for assessing risks of email

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Market-implied spread for earthquake CAT bonds: financial implications of engineering decisions.

PubMed

Damnjanovic, Ivan; Aslan, Zafer; Mander, John

2010-12-01

In the event of natural and man-made disasters, owners of large-scale infrastructure facilities (assets) need contingency plans to effectively restore the operations within the acceptable timescales. Traditionally, the insurance sector provides the coverage against potential losses. However, there are many problems associated with this traditional approach to risk transfer including counterparty risk and litigation. Recently, a number of innovative risk mitigation methods, termed alternative risk transfer (ART) methods, have been introduced to address these problems. One of the most important ART methods is catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The objective of this article is to develop an integrative model that links engineering design parameters with financial indicators including spread and bond rating. The developed framework is based on a four-step structural loss model and transformed survival model to determine expected excess returns. We illustrate the framework for a seismically designed bridge using two unique CAT bond contracts. The results show a nonlinear relationship between engineering design parameters and market-implied spread. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Natural-technological risk assessment and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

2016-04-01

EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

Meet EPA Scientist Jane Gallagher, Ph.D.

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dr. Jane Gallagher is an EPA research health scientist working with expertise in both field and clinical studies. She develops, tests, and integrates new methods, approaches and biomarkers to study human health risks posed by environmental chemicals

Multi-objective reverse logistics model for integrated computer waste management.

PubMed

Ahluwalia, Poonam Khanijo; Nema, Arvind K

2006-12-01

This study aimed to address the issues involved in the planning and design of a computer waste management system in an integrated manner. A decision-support tool is presented for selecting an optimum configuration of computer waste management facilities (segregation, storage, treatment/processing, reuse/recycle and disposal) and allocation of waste to these facilities. The model is based on an integer linear programming method with the objectives of minimizing environmental risk as well as cost. The issue of uncertainty in the estimated waste quantities from multiple sources is addressed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. An illustrated example of computer waste management in Delhi, India is presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model and to study tradeoffs between cost and risk. The results of the example problem show that it is possible to reduce the environmental risk significantly by a marginal increase in the available cost. The proposed model can serve as a powerful tool to address the environmental problems associated with exponentially growing quantities of computer waste which are presently being managed using rudimentary methods of reuse, recovery and disposal by various small-scale vendors.

Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

2011-01-01

Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

Integrating risk minimization planning throughout the clinical development and commercialization lifecycle: an opinion on how drug development could be improved

PubMed Central

Morrato, Elaine H; Smith, Meredith Y

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical risk minimization programs are now an established requirement in the regulatory landscape. However, pharmaceutical companies have been slow to recognize and embrace the significant potential these programs offer in terms of enhancing trust with health care professionals and patients, and for providing a mechanism for bringing products to the market that might not otherwise have been approved. Pitfalls of the current drug development process include risk minimization programs that are not data driven; missed opportunities to incorporate pragmatic methods and market-based insights, outmoded tools and data sources, lack of rapid evaluative learning to support timely adaption, lack of systematic approaches for patient engagement, and questions on staffing and organizational infrastructure. We propose better integration of risk minimization with clinical drug development and commercialization work streams throughout the product lifecycle. We articulate a vision and propose broad adoption of organizational models for incorporating risk minimization expertise into the drug development process. Three organizational models are discussed and compared: outsource/external vendor, embedded risk management specialist model, and Center of Excellence. PMID:25750537

Concern-driven integrated approaches for the grouping, testing and assessment of nanomaterials.

PubMed

Landsiedel, Robert

2016-11-01

NM's potential to induce adverse effects in humans or the environment is being addressed in numerous research projects, and methods and tools for NM hazard identification and risk assessment are advancing. This article describes how integrated approaches for the testing and assessment of NMs can ensure the safety of nanomaterials, while adhering to the 3Rs principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Label-free single-cell separation and imaging of cancer cells using an integrated microfluidic system

PubMed Central

Antfolk, Maria; Kim, Soo Hyeon; Koizumi, Saori; Fujii, Teruo; Laurell, Thomas

2017-01-01

The incidence of cancer is increasing worldwide and metastatic disease, through the spread of circulating tumor cells (CTCs), is responsible for the majority of the cancer deaths. Accurate monitoring of CTC levels in blood provides clinical information supporting therapeutic decision making, and improved methods for CTC enumeration are asked for. Microfluidics has been extensively used for this purpose but most methods require several post-separation processing steps including concentration of the sample before analysis. This induces a high risk of sample loss of the collected rare cells. Here, an integrated system is presented that efficiently eliminates this risk by integrating label-free separation with single cell arraying of the target cell population, enabling direct on-chip tumor cell identification and enumeration. Prostate cancer cells (DU145) spiked into a sample with whole blood concentration of the peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) fraction were efficiently separated and trapped at a recovery of 76.2 ± 5.9% of the cancer cells and a minute contamination of 0.12 ± 0.04% PBMCs while simultaneously enabling a 20x volumetric concentration. This constitutes a first step towards a fully integrated system for rapid label-free separation and on-chip phenotypic characterization of circulating tumor cells from peripheral venous blood in clinical practice. PMID:28425472

Label-free single-cell separation and imaging of cancer cells using an integrated microfluidic system.

PubMed

Antfolk, Maria; Kim, Soo Hyeon; Koizumi, Saori; Fujii, Teruo; Laurell, Thomas

2017-04-20

The incidence of cancer is increasing worldwide and metastatic disease, through the spread of circulating tumor cells (CTCs), is responsible for the majority of the cancer deaths. Accurate monitoring of CTC levels in blood provides clinical information supporting therapeutic decision making, and improved methods for CTC enumeration are asked for. Microfluidics has been extensively used for this purpose but most methods require several post-separation processing steps including concentration of the sample before analysis. This induces a high risk of sample loss of the collected rare cells. Here, an integrated system is presented that efficiently eliminates this risk by integrating label-free separation with single cell arraying of the target cell population, enabling direct on-chip tumor cell identification and enumeration. Prostate cancer cells (DU145) spiked into a sample with whole blood concentration of the peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) fraction were efficiently separated and trapped at a recovery of 76.2 ± 5.9% of the cancer cells and a minute contamination of 0.12 ± 0.04% PBMCs while simultaneously enabling a 20x volumetric concentration. This constitutes a first step towards a fully integrated system for rapid label-free separation and on-chip phenotypic characterization of circulating tumor cells from peripheral venous blood in clinical practice.

Integrating service user and practitioner expertise within a web-based system for collaborative mental-health risk and safety management.

PubMed

Buckingham, Christopher D; Adams, Ann; Vail, Laura; Kumar, Ashish; Ahmed, Abu; Whelan, Annie; Karasouli, Eleni

2015-10-01

To develop a decision support system (DSS), myGRaCE, that integrates service user (SU) and practitioner expertise about mental health and associated risks of suicide, self-harm, harm to others, self-neglect, and vulnerability. The intention is to help SUs assess and manage their own mental health collaboratively with practitioners. An iterative process involving interviews, focus groups, and agile software development with 115 SUs, to elicit and implement myGRaCE requirements. Findings highlight shared understanding of mental health risk between SUs and practitioners that can be integrated within a single model. However, important differences were revealed in SUs' preferred process of assessing risks and safety, which are reflected in the distinctive interface, navigation, tool functionality and language developed for myGRaCE. A challenge was how to provide flexible access without overwhelming and confusing users. The methods show that practitioner expertise can be reformulated in a format that simultaneously captures SU expertise, to provide a tool highly valued by SUs. A stepped process adds necessary structure to the assessment, each step with its own feedback and guidance. The GRiST web-based DSS (www.egrist.org) links and integrates myGRaCE self-assessments with GRiST practitioner assessments for supporting collaborative and self-managed healthcare. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Associations between Dementia Outcomes and Depressive Symptoms, Leisure Activities, and Social Support

PubMed Central

Heser, Kathrin; Wagner, Michael; Wiese, Birgitt; Prokein, Jana; Ernst, Annette; König, Hans-Helmut; Brettschneider, Christian; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G.; Luppa, Melanie; Weyerer, Siegfried; Eifflaender-Gorfer, Sandra; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Eisele, Marion

2014-01-01

Background Social relations and depressive symptoms are intertwined. They both predict subsequent dementia, but only few studies on the association between social life aspects and subsequent dementia exist. Methods The risk of subsequent dementia was estimated over 2 follow-up assessments, each 18 months apart, depending on leisure activity, social support (general scale and the 3 factors emotional support, practical support, and social integration), and depressive symptoms, using proportional hazard models in a cohort of elderly patients (n = 2,300, with a mean age of 82.45 years) recruited for the study by their general practitioners. Results Higher depressive symptoms and lower cognitive and physical activity were associated with an increased risk of subsequent all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's dementia (AD). While neither social engagement nor the general social support scale was associated with subsequent dementia, a higher level of social integration was associated with a lower dementia risk. In combined models, the results for activity variables remained similar, but the strength of the association between depressive symptoms and the subsequent risk of dementia decreased, and the association with social integration disappeared. Conclusions Depressive symptoms increased and activity variables decreased the risk of subsequent dementia; however, activity variables, namely cognitive and physical activity, partly mediated the effect of depressive symptoms on the subsequent risk of all-cause dementia and AD. In many cases, social support was not associated with a risk of subsequent dementia. PMID:25685139

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

Complementary and alternative medicine. Integrative medicine: business risks and opportunities.

PubMed

Berndtson, K

1998-01-01

Much of the buzz over integrative medicine is well deserved. The opportunities seem to outweigh the risks, but superior management skills are needed to guide these programs through adolescence into clinical and business maturity. By carefully considering the staffing, team building, compensation methods, marketing, and program evaluation and development issues explored in this article, health care and physician executives should be able to steer between the rocks on their way to integrative medicine decisions that are right for their organizations. Many claim that integrative medicine has the potential to reshape health care delivery in a more patient-centered direction. While this may be true, such programs must prove themselves from financial and clinical operational perspectives in order to achieve this potential. Luminary clinical skills are not enough to guarantee the survival of such programs--a strong clinical base of expertise in alternative therapies is a key success factor. As with any health care venture, there are no substitutes for clinical excellence or sound management.

[Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

PubMed

Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

2015-12-01

To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

Geographic integration of hepatitis C virus: A global threat

PubMed Central

Daw, Mohamed A; El-Bouzedi, Abdallah A; Ahmed, Mohamed O; Dau, Aghnyia A; Agnan, Mohamed M; Drah, Aisha M

2016-01-01

AIM To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) geographic integration, evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of HCV worldwide and propose how to diminish its burden. METHODS A literature search of published articles was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE and other related databases up to December 2015. A critical data assessment and analysis regarding the epidemiological integration of HCV was carried out using the meta-analysis method. RESULTS The data indicated that HCV has been integrated immensely over time and through various geographical regions worldwide. The history of HCV goes back to 1535 but between 1935 and 1965 it exhibited a rapid, exponential spread. This integration is clearly seen in the geo-epidemiology and phylogeography of HCV. HCV integration can be mirrored either as intra-continental or trans-continental. Migration, drug trafficking and HCV co-infection, together with other potential risk factors, have acted as a vehicle for this integration. Evidence shows that the geographic integration of HCV has been important in the global and regional distribution of HCV. CONCLUSION HCV geographic integration is clearly evident and this should be reflected in the prevention and treatment of this ongoing pandemic. PMID:27878104

Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban-rural gradient.

PubMed

Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

2013-03-01

We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban-rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI(RDS) was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI(RDS). These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban-rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity: toward an ideal index of cardiovascular risk in hypertension?

PubMed

Lantelme, Pierre; Khettab, Fouad; Custaud, Marc-Antoine; Rial, Marie-Odile; Joanny, Christiane; Gharib, Claude; Milon, Hugues

2002-05-01

Estimating the risk entailed by classical risk factors like blood pressure (BP) or serum cholesterol may be difficult because of their variability and the often unknown duration of exposure. Having variables integrating the impact of those classical risk factors on the cardiovascular system would probably aid the prediction of cardiovascular events. The present study aimed at determining whether cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), correlates with several risk factors and thus is a good candidate for being such an integrative variable. As a comparison, left ventricular mass (LVM), pulse wave velocity (PWV), and creatinine were also tested for association with risk factors. A total of 302 subjects referred for hypertension, were considered. They had a 24-h BP recording and a determination of BRS by two different methods (sequence and alpha coefficient), in two different positions (lying and standing). They were also tested for the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (by echocardiography and electrocardiogram) and had a PWV measurement. Biological testing included serum lipids, blood glucose, creatinine, proteinuria and urinary excretion of microalbumin. There was a strong correlation between the two methods of BRS measurement in each position (P < 0.001). BRS determined by the sequence method in the lying position was correlated significantly and independently with age, 24-h systolic BP, heart rate, and serum cholesterol with P values < 0.001, < 0.001, < 0.01, and < 0.05, respectively. In an univariate analysis, BRS was also correlated with echocardiographic LVM index (r = -0.21, P < 0.05) and PWV (r = -0.27, P < 0.001), which possibly reflects its dependence on both vascular and cardiac damages. The present study supports the hypothesis that BRS could encompass the impact over time of several risk factors on the cardiovascular system. Thus, it may constitute a valuable parameter in assessing more precisely the risk of cardiovascular events.

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting Benzo[k]Fluoranthene Human Health Hazards.

PubMed

Burgoon, Lyle D; Druwe, Ingrid L; Painter, Kyle; Yost, Erin E

2017-02-01

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values, and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline-based meta-regression can be used to integrate data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration-response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an in vitro point of departure of 0.751 μM and risk-specific in vitro concentrations of 0.29 μM and 0.28 μM for 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 risk, respectively, for DNA damage. Based on the available evidence, and considering that only a single HSD17B4 assay is available, we have low overall confidence in the steatosis hazard identification. This case study suggests that coupling qHTS assays with AOPs and ontologies will facilitate hazard identification. Combining this with quantitative evidence integration methods, such as bootstrap meta-regression, may allow risk assessors to identify points of departure and risk-specific internal/in vitro concentrations. These results are sufficient to prioritize the chemicals; however, in the longer term we will need to estimate external doses for risk screening purposes, such as through margin of exposure methods. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing the validity of prospective hazard analysis methods: a comparison of two techniques

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Prospective Hazard Analysis techniques such as Healthcare Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HFMEA) and Structured What If Technique (SWIFT) have the potential to increase safety by identifying risks before an adverse event occurs. Published accounts of their application in healthcare have identified benefits, but the reliability of some methods has been found to be low. The aim of this study was to examine the validity of SWIFT and HFMEA by comparing their outputs in the process of risk assessment, and comparing the results with risks identified by retrospective methods. Methods The setting was a community-based anticoagulation clinic, in which risk assessment activities had been previously performed and were available. A SWIFT and an HFMEA workshop were conducted consecutively on the same day by experienced experts. Participants were a mixture of pharmacists, administrative staff and software developers. Both methods produced lists of risks scored according to the method’s procedure. Participants’ views about the value of the workshops were elicited with a questionnaire. Results SWIFT identified 61 risks and HFMEA identified 72 risks. For both methods less than half the hazards were identified by the other method. There was also little overlap between the results of the workshops and risks identified by prior root cause analysis, staff interviews or clinical governance board discussions. Participants’ feedback indicated that the workshops were viewed as useful. Conclusions Although there was limited overlap, both methods raised important hazards. Scoping the problem area had a considerable influence on the outputs. The opportunity for teams to discuss their work from a risk perspective is valuable, but these methods cannot be relied upon in isolation to provide a comprehensive description. Multiple methods for identifying hazards should be used and data from different sources should be integrated to give a comprehensive view of risk in a system. PMID:24467813

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Incorporating DNA Sequencing into Current Prenatal Screening Practice for Down's Syndrome

PubMed Central

Wald, Nicholas J.; Bestwick, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Background Prenatal screening for Down's syndrome is performed using biochemical and ultrasound markers measured in early pregnancy such as the Integrated test using first and second trimester markers. Recently, DNA sequencing methods have been introduced on free DNA in maternal plasma, yielding a high screening performance. These methods are expensive and there is a test failure rate. We determined the screening performance of merging the Integrated test with the newer DNA techniques in a protocol that substantially reduces the cost compared with universal DNA testing and still achieves high screening performance with no test failures. Methods Published data were used to model screening performance of a protocol in which all women receive the first stage of the Integrated test at about 11 weeks of pregnancy. On the basis of this higher risk women have reflex DNA testing and lower risk women as well as those with a failed DNA test complete the Integrated test at about 15 weeks. Results The overall detection rate was 95% with a 0.1% false-positive rate if 20% of women were selected to receive DNA testing. If all women had DNA testing the detection rate would be 3 to 4 percentage points higher with a false-positive rate 30 times greater if women with failed tests were treated as positive and offered a diagnostic amniocentesis, or 3 times greater if they had a second trimester screening test (Quadruple test) and treated as positive only if this were positive. The cost per women screened would be about one-fifth, compared with universal DNA testing, if the DNA test were 20 times the cost of the Integrated test. Conclusion The proposed screening protocol achieves a high screening performance without programme test failures and at a substantially lower cost than offering all women DNA testing. PMID:23527014

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

PubMed

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment.

PubMed

Scholz, Stefan; Sela, Erika; Blaha, Ludek; Braunbeck, Thomas; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; García-Franco, Mauricio; Guinea, Joaquin; Klüver, Nils; Schirmer, Kristin; Tanneberger, Katrin; Tobor-Kapłon, Marysia; Witters, Hilda; Belanger, Scott; Benfenati, Emilio; Creton, Stuart; Cronin, Mark T D; Eggen, Rik I L; Embry, Michelle; Ekman, Drew; Gourmelon, Anne; Halder, Marlies; Hardy, Barry; Hartung, Thomas; Hubesch, Bruno; Jungmann, Dirk; Lampi, Mark A; Lee, Lucy; Léonard, Marc; Küster, Eberhard; Lillicrap, Adam; Luckenbach, Till; Murk, Albertinka J; Navas, José M; Peijnenburg, Willie; Repetto, Guillermo; Salinas, Edward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Spielmann, Horst; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Walter-Rohde, Susanne; Whale, Graham; Wheeler, James R; Winter, Matthew J

2013-12-01

Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e. mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although this article focusses on European regulations, its considerations and conclusions are of global relevance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

graph-GPA: A graphical model for prioritizing GWAS results and investigating pleiotropic architecture.

PubMed

Chung, Dongjun; Kim, Hang J; Zhao, Hongyu

2017-02-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified tens of thousands of genetic variants associated with hundreds of phenotypes and diseases, which have provided clinical and medical benefits to patients with novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets. However, identification of risk variants associated with complex diseases remains challenging as they are often affected by many genetic variants with small or moderate effects. There has been accumulating evidence suggesting that different complex traits share common risk basis, namely pleiotropy. Recently, several statistical methods have been developed to improve statistical power to identify risk variants for complex traits through a joint analysis of multiple GWAS datasets by leveraging pleiotropy. While these methods were shown to improve statistical power for association mapping compared to separate analyses, they are still limited in the number of phenotypes that can be integrated. In order to address this challenge, in this paper, we propose a novel statistical framework, graph-GPA, to integrate a large number of GWAS datasets for multiple phenotypes using a hidden Markov random field approach. Application of graph-GPA to a joint analysis of GWAS datasets for 12 phenotypes shows that graph-GPA improves statistical power to identify risk variants compared to statistical methods based on smaller number of GWAS datasets. In addition, graph-GPA also promotes better understanding of genetic mechanisms shared among phenotypes, which can potentially be useful for the development of improved diagnosis and therapeutics. The R implementation of graph-GPA is currently available at https://dongjunchung.github.io/GGPA/.

Rapid mapping of schistosomiasis and other neglected tropical diseases in the context of integrated control programmes in Africa

PubMed Central

BROOKER, S.; KABATEREINE, N. B.; GYAPONG, J. O.; STOTHARD, J. R.; UTZINGER, J.

2009-01-01

SUMMARY There is growing interest and commitment to the control of schistosomiasis and other so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Resources for control are inevitably limited, necessitating assessment methods that can rapidly and accurately identify and map high-risk communities so that interventions can be targeted in a spatially-explicit and cost-effective manner. Here, we review progress made with (i) mapping schistosomiasis across Africa using available epidemiological data and more recently, climate-based risk prediction; (ii) the development and use of morbidity questionnaires for rapid identification of high-risk communities of urinary schistosomiasis; and (iii) innovative sampling-based approaches for intestinal schistosomiasis, using the lot quality assurance sampling technique. Experiences are also presented for the rapid mapping of other NTDs, including onchocerciasis, loiasis and lymphatic filariasis. Future directions for an integrated rapid mapping approach targeting multiple NTDs simultaneously are outlined, including potential challenges in developing an integrated survey tool. The lessons from the mapping of human helminth infections may also be relevant for the rapid mapping of malaria as its control efforts are intensified. PMID:19450373

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wu, Honglu; Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2007-01-01

In space, astronauts are constantly bombarded with energetic particles. The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the NASA Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. Among the identified radiation risks are cancer, acute and late CNS damage, chronic and degenerative tissue decease, and acute radiation syndrome. The term "safely" means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences can be defined. The NASA Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting the identified radiation risks. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus, the fourth element develops computer algorithms to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Impact of risk attitudes and perception on game theoretic driving interactions and safety.

PubMed

Arbis, David; Dixit, Vinayak V; Rashidi, Taha Hossein

2016-09-01

This study employs game theory to investigate behavioural norms of interaction between drivers at a signalised intersection. The choice framework incorporates drivers' risk perception as well as their risk attitudes. A laboratory experiment is conducted to study the impact of risk attitudes and perception in crossing behaviour at a signalised intersection. The laboratory experiment uses methods from experimental economics to induce incentives and study revealed behaviour. Conflicting drivers are considered to have symmetric disincentives for crashing, to represent a no-fault car insurance environment. The study is novel as it uses experimental data collection methods to investigate perceived risk. Further, it directly integrates perceived risk of crashing with other active drivers into the modelling structure. A theoretical model of intersection crossing behaviour is also developed in this paper. This study shows that right-of-way entitlements assigned without authoritative penalties to at-fault drivers may still improve perceptions of safety. Further, risk aversion amongst drivers attributes to manoeuvring strategies at or below Nash mixed strategy equilibrium. These findings offer a theoretical explanation for interactive manoeuvres that lead to crashes, as opposed to purely statistical methods which provide correlation but not necessarily explanation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 69065 - Draft Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection..., ``Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS...: The draft ``Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Integrated prioritization method for active and passive highway-rail crossings.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

This two-year research project developed a prioritization system for highway-rail at-grade crossings that addressed the following major concerns: (1) warrants to identify low-volume, passive crossings with risk factors; (2) a broader priority index t...

Final ecosystem goods and services enhance societal relevance of contaminated-site remediation

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Exposure to environmental stressors can adversely affect both human health and ecological receptors and impacts on the latter influence the community's overall vulnerability. Risk assessment guidance promotes conceptual site models to integrate multip...

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

The association between social resources and depression among female migrants affected by domestic violence

PubMed Central

Teng, Pan; Hall, Brian J.; Li, Ling

2014-01-01

Background Interpersonal violence (IPV) is associated with higher risk of depression. Female Chinese rural-to-urban migrants may experience greater depression following exposure to IPV due to lack of social support and integration within their receiving communities. The current study estimated the prevalence of IPV among rural-to-urban migrants in Guangzhou, China, and evaluated the moderating effects of social resources on migrant's depression symptoms. Method We recruited 1,368 women (1,003 migrants and 365 local-born) of childbearing age from population and family planning centers in two districts using a quota sampling method matched to the 2012 population census. Chinese versions of the Conflict Tactics Scale 2 Short Form, Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale and the Social Support Rating Scale measured IPV, depression, and social support. Social integration was measured with a locally derived scale. Results Migrants reported a similar prevalence for IPV (41.20%) to local women (39.20%). Bivariate comparisons demonstrated that migrants reported greater depression (11.8±8.9 vs. 10.0±8.8, t=−3.27, p<0.001) and less social support (22.2±5.1 vs. 27.1±5.5, t=14.84, p<0.001). Regression analysis indicated that the effect of violence on depression symptoms for migrant women was moderated by social integration. Women who experienced violence and had greater integration in their community reported less depression than women who experienced violence but reported less social integration. Conclusion A high prevalence of IPV was reported in our sample. Social integration is a key risk factor for migrant mental health. Social services aimed to reduce IPV and integrate migrants in their new communities are needed. PMID:25511732

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, L. L.; Dougherty, N. S.; Liever, P. A.; West, J. S.; Smith, S. D.

2007-01-01

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Integrating Soluble Biomarkers and Imaging Technologies in the Identification of Vulnerable Atherosclerotic Patients

PubMed Central

Páramo, José A.; Rodríguez JA, José A.; Orbe, Josune

2006-01-01

The clinical utility of a biomarker depends on its ability to identify high-risk individuals to optimally manage the patient. A new biomarker would be of clinical value if it is accurate and reliable, provides good sensitivity and specificity, and is available for widespread application. Data are accumulating on the potential clinical utility of integrating imaging technologies and circulating biomarkers for the identification of vulnerable (high-risk) cardiovascular patients. A multi-biomarker strategy consisting of markers of inflammation, hemostasis and thrombosis, proteolysis and oxidative stress, combined with new imaging modalities (optical coherence tomography, virtual histology plus IVUS, PET) can increase our ability to identify such thombosis-prone patients. In an ideal scenario, cardiovascular biomarkers and imaging combined will provide a better diagnostic tool to identify high-risk individuals and also more efficient methods for effective therapies to reduce such cardiovascular risk. However, additional studies are required in order to show that this approach can contribute to improved diagnostic and therapeutic of atherosclerotic disease. PMID:19690647

Integrating soluble biomarkers and imaging technologies in the identification of vulnerable atherosclerotic patients.

PubMed

Páramo, José A; Rodríguez Ja, José A; Orbe, Josune

2007-02-07

The clinical utility of a biomarker depends on its ability to identify high-risk individuals to optimally manage the patient. A new biomarker would be of clinical value if it is accurate and reliable, provides good sensitivity and specificity, and is available for widespread application. Data are accumulating on the potential clinical utility of integrating imaging technologies and circulating biomarkers for the identification of vulnerable (high-risk) cardiovascular patients. A multi-biomarker strategy consisting of markers of inflammation, hemostasis and thrombosis, proteolysis and oxidative stress, combined with new imaging modalities (optical coherence tomography, virtual histology plus IVUS, PET) can increase our ability to identify such thombosis-prone patients. In an ideal scenario, cardiovascular biomarkers and imaging combined will provide a better diagnostic tool to identify high-risk individuals and also more efficient methods for effective therapies to reduce such cardiovascular risk. However, additional studies are required in order to show that this approach can contribute to improved diagnostic and therapeutic of atherosclerotic disease.

Developing smartphone apps for behavioural studies: The AlcoRisk app case study.

PubMed

Smith, Anthony; de Salas, Kristy; Lewis, Ian; Schüz, Benjamin

2017-08-01

Smartphone apps have emerged as valuable research tools to sample human behaviours at their time of occurrence within natural environments. Human behaviour sampling methods, such as Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), aim to facilitate research that is situated in ecologically valid real world environments rather than laboratory environments. Researchers have trialled a range of EMA smartphone apps to sample human behaviours such as dieting, physical activity and smoking. Software development processes for EMA smartphones apps, however, are not widely documented with little guidance provided for the integration of complex multidisciplinary behavioural and technical fields. In this paper, the AlcoRisk app for studying alcohol consumption and risk taking tendencies is presented alongside a software development process that integrates these multidisciplinary fields. The software development process consists of three stages including requirements analysis, feature and interface design followed by app implementation. Results from a preliminary feasibility study support the efficacy of the AlcoRisk app's software development process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Risk-Based Inspection method for gas compressor station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meng; Liang, Wei; Qiu, Zeyang; Lin, Yang

2017-05-01

According to the complex process and lots of equipment, there are risks in gas compressor station. At present, research on integrity management of gas compressor station is insufficient. In this paper, the basic principle of Risk Based Inspection (RBI) and the RBI methodology are studied; the process of RBI in the gas compressor station is developed. The corrosion loop and logistics loop of the gas compressor station are determined through the study of corrosion mechanism and process of the gas compressor station. The probability of failure is calculated by using the modified coefficient, and the consequence of failure is calculated by the quantitative method. In particular, we addressed the application of a RBI methodology in a gas compressor station. The risk ranking is helpful to find the best preventive plan for inspection in the case study.

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

PubMed

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 57033 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System..., ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

Sisters in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer families: communal coping, social integration, and psychological well-being†

PubMed Central

Koehly, Laura M.; Peters, June A.; Kuhn, Natalia; Hoskins, Lindsey; Letocha, Anne; Kenen, Regina; Loud, Jennifer; Greene, Mark H.

2011-01-01

Objective We investigated the association between psychological distress and indices of social integration and communal coping among sisters from hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) families. Sample and methods Sixty-five sisters from 31 HBOC families completed the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 and the Colored Eco-Genetic Relationship Map, which identified members of participants’ social support networks. Hierarchical linear models were used for all analyses to account for the clustering of sisters within families. Results Intra-family correlation coefficients suggested that sisters shared perceptions of breast cancer risk and worry, but not ovarian cancer risk and worry. Further, sisters demonstrated shared levels of anxiety and somatization, but not depressive symptoms. Communal coping indices quantifying shared support resources were negatively related to anxiety and somatization. The number of persons with whom cancer risk information was shared exhibited a positive trend with somatization. Social integration, as measured by the size of participants’ emotional support network, was negatively associated with anxiety. Lower depression scores were observed among participants with more persons playing multiple support roles and fewer persons providing tangible assistance. Conclusion Understanding how support relationships impact well-being among persons adjusting to HBOC risk, and the particular role of family in that process, will facilitate developing appropriate management approaches to help cancer-prone families adjust to their cancer risk. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:18688790

Estimating vegetation dryness to optimize fire risk assessment with spot vegetation satellite data in savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.

2005-10-01

The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.

Genotype-Specific Minimal Residual Disease Interpretation Improves Stratification in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

PubMed Central

O’Connor, David; Enshaei, Amir; Bartram, Jack; Hancock, Jeremy; Harrison, Christine J.; Hough, Rachael; Samarasinghe, Sujith; Schwab, Claire; Vora, Ajay; Wade, Rachel; Moppett, John; Moorman, Anthony V.; Goulden, Nick

2018-01-01

Purpose Minimal residual disease (MRD) and genetic abnormalities are important risk factors for outcome in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Current risk algorithms dichotomize MRD data and do not assimilate genetics when assigning MRD risk, which reduces predictive accuracy. The aim of our study was to exploit the full power of MRD by examining it as a continuous variable and to integrate it with genetics. Patients and Methods We used a population-based cohort of 3,113 patients who were treated in UKALL2003, with a median follow-up of 7 years. MRD was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction analysis of Ig/TCR gene rearrangements, and patients were assigned to a genetic subtype on the basis of immunophenotype, cytogenetics, and fluorescence in situ hybridization. To examine response kinetics at the end of induction, we log-transformed the absolute MRD value and examined its distribution across subgroups. Results MRD was log normally distributed at the end of induction. MRD distributions of patients with distinct genetic subtypes were different (P < .001). Patients with good-risk cytogenetics demonstrated the fastest disease clearance, whereas patients with high-risk genetics and T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia responded more slowly. The risk of relapse was correlated with MRD kinetics, and each log reduction in disease level reduced the risk by 20% (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83; P < .001). Although the risk of relapse was directly proportional to the MRD level within each genetic risk group, absolute relapse rate that was associated with a specific MRD value or category varied significantly by genetic subtype. Integration of genetic subtype–specific MRD values allowed more refined risk group stratification. Conclusion A single threshold for assigning patients to an MRD risk group does not reflect the response kinetics of the different genetic subtypes. Future risk algorithms should integrate genetics with MRD to accurately identify patients with the lowest and highest risk of relapse. PMID:29131699

Risk communication as a core public health competence in infectious disease management: Development of the ECDC training curriculum and programme.

PubMed

Dickmann, Petra; Abraham, Thomas; Sarkar, Satyajit; Wysocki, Piotr; Cecconi, Sabrina; Apfel, Franklin; Nurm, Ülla-Karin

2016-01-01

Risk communication has been identified as a core competence for guiding public health responses to infectious disease threats. The International Health Regulations (2005) call for all countries to build capacity and a comprehensive understanding of health risks before a public health emergency to allow systematic and coherent communication, response and management. Research studies indicate that while outbreak and crisis communication concepts and tools have long been on the agenda of public health officials, there is still a need to clarify and integrate risk communication concepts into more standardised practices and improve risk communication and health, particularly among disadvantaged populations. To address these challenges, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) convened a group of risk communication experts to review and integrate existing approaches and emerging concepts in the development of a training curriculum. This curriculum articulates a new approach in risk communication moving beyond information conveyance to knowledge- and relationship-building. In a pilot training this approach was reflected both in the topics addressed and in the methods applied. This article introduces the new conceptual approach to risk communication capacity building that emerged from this process, presents the pilot training approach developed, and shares the results of the course evaluation.

Assessing the multidimensionality of coastal erosion risks: public participation and multicriteria analysis in a Mediterranean coastal system.

PubMed

Roca, Elisabet; Gamboa, Gonzalo; Tàbara, J David

2008-04-01

The complex and multidimensional nature of coastal erosion risks makes it necessary to move away from single-perspective assessment and management methods that have conventionally predominated in coastal management. This article explores the suitability of participatory multicriteria analysis (MCA) for improving the integration of diverse expertises and values and enhancing the social-ecological robustness of the processes that lead to the definition of relevant policy options to deal with those risks. We test this approach in the Mediterranean coastal locality of Lido de Sète in France. Results show that the more adaptive alternatives such as "retreating the shoreline" were preferred by our selected stakeholders to those corresponding to "protecting the shoreline" and the business as usual proposals traditionally put forward by experts and policymakers on these matters. Participative MCA contributed to represent coastal multidimensionality, elicit and integrate different views and preferences, facilitated knowledge exchange, and allowed highlighting existing uncertainties.

The statistical theory of the fracture of fragile bodies. Part 2: The integral equation method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kittl, P.

1984-01-01

It is demonstrated how with the aid of a bending test, the Weibull fracture risk function can be determined - without postulating its analytical form - by resolving an integral equation. The respective solutions for rectangular and circular section beams are given. In the first case the function is expressed as an algorithm and in the second, in the form of series. Taking into account that the cumulative fracture probability appearing in the solution to the integral equation must be continuous and monotonically increasing, any case of fabrication or selection of samples can be treated.

Approaches to integrating germline and tumor genomic data in cancer research

PubMed Central

Feigelson, Heather Spencer; Goddard, Katrina A.B.; Hollombe, Celine; Tingle, Sharna R.; Gillanders, Elizabeth M.; Mechanic, Leah E.; Nelson, Stefanie A.

2014-01-01

Cancer is characterized by a diversity of genetic and epigenetic alterations occurring in both the germline and somatic (tumor) genomes. Hundreds of germline variants associated with cancer risk have been identified, and large amounts of data identifying mutations in the tumor genome that participate in tumorigenesis have been generated. Increasingly, these two genomes are being explored jointly to better understand how cancer risk alleles contribute to carcinogenesis and whether they influence development of specific tumor types or mutation profiles. To understand how data from germline risk studies and tumor genome profiling is being integrated, we reviewed 160 articles describing research that incorporated data from both genomes, published between January 2009 and December 2012, and summarized the current state of the field. We identified three principle types of research questions being addressed using these data: (i) use of tumor data to determine the putative function of germline risk variants; (ii) identification and analysis of relationships between host genetic background and particular tumor mutations or types; and (iii) use of tumor molecular profiling data to reduce genetic heterogeneity or refine phenotypes for germline association studies. We also found descriptive studies that compared germline and tumor genomic variation in a gene or gene family, and papers describing research methods, data sources, or analytical tools. We identified a large set of tools and data resources that can be used to analyze and integrate data from both genomes. Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for cancer research that integrates germline and tumor genomics data. PMID:25115441

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merill, Robin L.; Tri, Terry O.; Henninger, Donald L.

2003-01-01

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

An Integrated Low-Speed Performance and Noise Prediction Methodology for Subsonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, E. D.; Mavris, D. N.

2000-01-01

An integrated methodology has been assembled to compute the engine performance, takeoff and landing trajectories, and community noise levels for a subsonic commercial aircraft. Where feasible, physics-based noise analysis methods have been used to make the results more applicable to newer, revolutionary designs and to allow for a more direct evaluation of new technologies. The methodology is intended to be used with approximation methods and risk analysis techniques to allow for the analysis of a greater number of variable combinations while retaining the advantages of physics-based analysis. Details of the methodology are described and limited results are presented for a representative subsonic commercial aircraft.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

PubMed

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

An integrated tool to support engineers for WMSDs risk assessment during the assembly line balancing.

PubMed

Di Benedetto, Raffaele; Fanti, Michele

2012-01-01

This paper wants to present an integrated approach to Line Balancing and Risk Assessment and a Software Tool named ErgoAnalysis that makes it easy to control the whole production process and produces a Risk Index for the actual work tasks in an Assembly Line. Assembly Line Balancing, or simply Line Balancing, is the problem of assigning operations to workstations along an assembly line, in such a way that the assignment be optimal in some sense. Assembly lines are characterized by production constraints and restrictions due to several aspects such as the nature of the product and the flow of orders. To be able to respond effectively to the needs of production, companies need to frequently change the workload and production models. Each manufacturing process might be quite different from another. To optimize very specific operations, assembly line balancing might utilize a number of methods and the Engineer must consider ergonomic constraints, in order to reduce the risk of WMDSs. Risk Assessment may result very expensive because the Engineer must evaluate it at every change. ErgoAnalysis can reduce cost and improve effectiveness in Risk Assessment during the Line Balancing.

Human Research Program Integrated Research Plan. Revision C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Susan

2011-01-01

Crew health and performance are critical to successful human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The Human Research Program (HRP) is essential to enabling extended periods of space exploration because it provides knowledge and tools to mitigate risks to human health and performance. Risks include physiological effects from radiation and hypogravity environments, as well as unique challenges in medical support, human factors, and behavioral or psychological factors. The Human Research Program (HRP) delivers human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration. Without HRP results, NASA will face unknown and unacceptable risks for mission success and post-mission crew health. This Integrated Research Plan (IRP) describes (1) HRP's approach and research activities that are intended to address the needs of human space exploration and serve HRP customers and (2) the method of integration for risk mitigation. The scope of the IRP is limited to the activities that can be conducted with the resources available to the HRP; it does not contain activities that would be performed if additional resources were available. The timescale of human space exploration is envisioned to take many decades. The IRP illustrates the program s research plan through the timescale of early lunar missions of extended duration.

76 FR 71029 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-11/081A). On September 15, 2011, the... ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...

The holy grail of soil metal contamination site assessment: reducing risk and increasing confidence of decision making using infield portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouillon, M.; Taylor, M. P.; Dong, C.

2016-12-01

This research assesses the advantages of integrating field portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology for reducing the risk and increase confidence of decision making for metal-contaminated site assessments. Metal-contaminated sites are often highly heterogeneous and require a high sampling density to accurately characterize the distribution and concentration of contaminants. The current regulatory assessment approaches rely on a small number of samples processed using standard wet-chemistry methods. In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, the current notification trigger for characterizing metal-contaminated sites require the upper 95% confidence interval of the site mean to equal or exceed the relevant guidelines. The method's low `minimum' sampling requirements can misclassify sites due to the heterogeneous nature of soil contamination, leading to inaccurate decision making. To address this issue, we propose integrating infield pXRF analysis with the established sampling method to overcome sampling limitations. This approach increases the minimum sampling resolution and reduces the 95% CI of the site mean. Infield pXRF analysis at contamination hotspots enhances sample resolution efficiently and without the need to return to the site. In this study, the current and proposed pXRF site assessment methods are compared at five heterogeneous metal-contaminated sites by analysing the spatial distribution of contaminants, 95% confidence intervals of site means, and the sampling and analysis uncertainty associated with each method. Finally, an analysis of costs associated with both the current and proposed methods is presented to demonstrate the advantages of incorporating pXRF into metal-contaminated site assessments. The data shows that pXRF integrated site assessments allows for faster, cost-efficient, characterisation of metal-contaminated sites with greater confidence for decision making.

Nursing process decision support system for urology ward.

PubMed

Hao, Angelica Te-Hui; Wu, Lee-Pin; Kumar, Ajit; Jian, Wen-Shan; Huang, Li-Fang; Kao, Ching-Chiu; Hsu, Chien-Yeh

2013-07-01

We developed a nursing process decision support system (NPDSS) based on three clinical pathways, including benign prostatic hypertrophy, inguinal hernia, and urinary tract stone. NPDSS included six major nursing diagnoses - acute pain, impaired urinary elimination, impaired skin integrity, anxiety, infection risk, and risk of falling. This paper aims to describe the design, development and validation process of the NPDSS. We deployed the Delphi method to reach consensus for decision support rules of NPDSS. A team of nine-member expert nurses from a medical center in Taiwan was involved in Delphi method. The Cronbach's α method was used for examining the reliability of the questionnaire used in the Delphi method. The Visual Basic 6.0 as front-end and Microsoft Access 2003 as back-end was used to develop the system. A team of six nursing experts was asked to evaluate the usability of the developed systems. A 5-point Likert scale questionnaire was used for the evaluation. The sensitivity and specificity of NPDSS were validated using 150 nursing chart. The study showed a consistency between the diagnoses of the developed system (NPDSS) and the nursing charts. The sensitivities of the nursing diagnoses including acute pain, impaired urinary elimination, risk of infection, and risk of falling were 96.9%, 98.1%, 94.9%, and 89.9% respectively; and the specificities were 88%, 49.5%, 62%, and 88% respectively. We did not calculate the sensitivity and specificity of impaired skin integrity and anxiety due to non-availability of enough sample size. NPDSS can help nurses in decision making of nursing diagnoses. Besides, it can help them to generate nursing diagnoses based on patient-specific data, individualized care plans, and implementation within their usual nursing workflow. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory.

PubMed

Chen, Qiuwen; Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui

2014-06-01

Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004-2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial-temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial-temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Economic effects of integrated RIS-PACS solution in the university environment].

PubMed

Kröger, M; Nissen-Meyer, S; Wetekam, V; Reiser, M

1999-04-01

The goal of the current article is to demonstrate how qualitative and monetary effects resulting from an integrated RIS/PACS installation can be evaluated. First of all, the system concept of a RIS/PACS solution for a university hospital is defined and described. Based on this example, a generic method for the evaluation of qualitative and monetary effects as well as associated risks is depicted and demonstrated. To this end, qualitative analyses, investment calculations and risk analysis are employed. The sample analysis of a RIS/PACS solution specially designed for a university hospital demonstrates positive qualitative and monetary effects of the system. Under ideal conditions the payoff time of the investments is reached after 4 years of an assumed 8 years effective life of the system. Furthermore, under conservative assumptions, the risk analysis shows a probability of 0% for realising a negative net present value at the end of the payoff time period. It should be pointed out that the positive result of this sample analysis will not necessarily apply to other clinics or hospitals. However, the same methods may be used for the individual evaluation of the qualitative and monetary effects of a RIS/PACS installation in any clinic.

[Spatial Distribution and Potential Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soils and Sediments in Shunde Waterway, Southern China].

PubMed

Cai, Yi-min; Chen, Wei-ping; Peng, Chi; Wang, Tie-yu; Xiao, Rong-bo

2016-05-15

Environmental quality of soils and sediments around water source area can influence the safety of potable water of rivers. In order to study the pollution characteristics, the sources and ecological risks of heavy metals Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in water source area, surface soils around the waterway and sediments in the estuary of main tributaries were collected in Shunde, and ecological risks of heavy metals were assessed by two methods of potential ecological risk assessment. The mean contents of Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in the surface soils were 186.80, 65.88, 54.56, 32.47, 22.65 and 0.86 mg · kg⁻¹ respectively, and they were higher than their soil background values except those of Cu and Ni. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in the sediments were 312.11, 111.41, 97.87, 92.32, 29.89 and 1.72 mg · kg⁻¹ respectively, and they were higher than their soil background values except that of Ni. The results of principal component analysis illustrated that the main source of Cr and Ni in soils was soil parent materials, and Zn, Pb, Cu and Cd in soils mainly came from wastewater discharge of local manufacturing industry. The six heavy metals in sediments mainly originated from industry emissions around the Shunde waterway. The results of potential ecological risk assessment integrating environmental bioavailability of heavy metals showed that Zn, Cu, Pb and Ni had a slight potential ecological risk. Cd had a slight potential ecological risk in surface soils, but a moderate potential ecological risk in surfaces sediments. Because the potential ecological risk assessment integrating environmental bioavailability of heavy metals took the soil properties and heavy metal forms into account, its results of risks were lower than those of Hakanson methods, and it could avoid overestimating the potential risks of heavy metals.

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.

PubMed

Challinor, Andy J; Adger, W Neil; Benton, Tim G; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-13

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment. © 2018 The Author(s).

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-01

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2016-07-01

In this paper, an integrated methodology for the analysis of pedestrian behaviour and exposure is proposed, allowing to identify and quantify the effect of pedestrian behaviour, road and traffic characteristics on pedestrian risk exposure, for each pedestrian and for populations of pedestrians. The paper builds on existing research on pedestrian exposure, namely the Routledge microscopic indicator, proposes adjustments to take into account road, traffic and human factors and extends the use of this indicator on area-wide level. Moreover, this paper uses integrated choice and latent variables (ICLV) models of pedestrian behaviour, taking into account road, traffic and human factors. Finally, a methodology is proposed for the integrated estimation of pedestrian behaviour and exposure on the basis of road, traffic and human factors. The method is tested with data from a field survey in Athens, Greece, which used pedestrian behaviour observations as well as a questionnaire on human factors of pedestrian behaviour. The data were used (i) to develop ICLV models of pedestrian behaviour and (ii) to estimate the behaviour and exposure of pedestrians for different road, traffic and behavioural scenarios. The results suggest that both pedestrian behaviour and exposure are largely defined by a small number of factors: road type, traffic volume and pedestrian risk-taking. The probability for risk-taking behaviour and the related exposure decrease in less demanding road and traffic environments. A synthesis of the results allows to enhance the understanding of the interactions between behaviour and exposure of pedestrians and to identify conditions of increased risk exposure. These conditions include principal urban arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is low but the related exposure is very high) and minor arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is more frequent, and the related exposure is still high). A "paradox" of increased risk-taking behaviour of pedestrians with low exposure is found, suggesting that these pedestrians may partly compensate in moderate traffic conditions due to their increased walking speed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of soil magnetometry and geochemistry for assessment of human health risk from metallurgical slag dumps.

PubMed

Rachwał, Marzena; Wawer, Małgorzata; Magiera, Tadeusz; Steinnes, Eiliv

2017-12-01

The main objective of the study was an assessment of the pollution level of agricultural land located close to dumps of industrial waste remaining after former Zn and Pb ore processing in Poland. The integrated geophysical-geochemical methods were applied for assessment of soil quality with respect to trace element pollution. Additionally, human health risk induced by the contaminated arable soil and dusting slag heap was estimated. The investigations pointed out that soils in the vicinity of the metallurgical slag dump in Piekary were heavily polluted. Spatial distribution of magnetic susceptibility corresponding well with distribution of the content of potentially toxic elements indicated the local "pollution hotspots." Proper geophysical and geochemical data interpretation supported by statistical factor analysis enabled identification of three different sources of pollution including metallurgical slug dump as a main source, but also traffic pollution influencing the area located along the busy road and relatively strong influence of the geochemical background. Computed health hazard index revealed no adverse health effect to the farmers cultivating arable soil, but in the direct vicinity of dusting, slag dump health risk occurred, caused mostly by very toxic elements as As and Tl. In the future, investigation should be focused on contribution of different sources to the heavy metal pollution in soil-crop system in this area. It should be highlighted that a site-specific approach should be taken in order to redevelop this kind of area in order to reduce ecological and human health threat. The study proved the integrated two-stage geophysical-geochemical method to be a feasible, reliable, and cost-effective tool for identification of the extent of soil pollution and areas at risk.

Actor modelling and its contribution to the development of integrative strategies for management of pharmaceuticals in drinking water.

PubMed

Titz, Alexandra; Döll, Petra

2009-02-01

Widespread presence of human pharmaceuticals in water resources across the globe is documented. While some, but certainly not enough, research on the occurrence, fate and effect of pharmaceuticals in water resources has been carried out, a holistic risk management strategy is missing. The transdisciplinary research project "start" aimed to develop an integrative strategy by the participation of experts representing key actors in the problem field "pharmaceuticals in drinking water". In this paper, we describe a novel modelling method, actor modelling with the semi-quantitative software DANA (Dynamic Actor Network Analysis), and its application in support of identifying an integrative risk management strategy. Based on the individual perceptions of different actors, the approach allows the identification of optimal strategies. Actors' perceptions were elicited by participatory model building and interviews, and were then modelled in perception graphs. Actor modelling indicated that an integrative strategy that targets environmentally-responsible prescription, therapy, and disposal of pharmaceuticals on one hand, and the development of environmentally-friendly pharmaceuticals on the other hand, will likely be most effective for reducing the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in drinking water (at least in Germany where the study was performed). However, unlike most other actors, the pharmaceutical industry itself does not perceive that the production of environmentally-friendly pharmaceuticals is an action that helps to achieve its goals, but contends that continued development of highly active pharmaceutical ingredients will help to reduce the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the water cycle. Investment in advanced waste or drinking water treatment is opposed by both the wastewater treatment company and the drinking water supplier, and is not mentioned as appropriate by the other actors. According to our experience, actor modelling is a useful method to suggest effective and realisable integrative risk management strategies in complex problem fields that involve many societal actors.

AN OVERVIEW OF DATA INTEGRATION METHODS FOR REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

One of the goals of the EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) project is to take diverse environmental data and develop objective criteria to evaluate environmental risk assessments at the regions: scale. The data include (but are not limited to) variables for forests, ...

Effectiveness of integrated care model for type 2 diabetes: A population-based study in Reggio Emilia (Italy)

PubMed Central

Ballotari, Paola; Manicardi, Valeria; Ferrari, Francesca; Vicentini, Massimo; Greci, Marina; Pignatti, Fabio; Storani, Simone; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

2018-01-01

Aims To compare the effectiveness of integrated care with that of the diabetes clinic care model in terms of mortality and hospitalisation of type 2 diabetes patients with low risk of complications. Methods Out of 27234 people with type 2 diabetes residing in the province of Reggio Emilia on 31/12/2011, 3071 were included in this cohort study as eligible for integrated care (i.e., low risk of complications) and cared for with the same care model for at least two years. These patients were followed up from 2012 to 2016, for all-cause and diabetes-related mortality and hospital admissions. We performed a Poisson regression model, using the proportion of eligible patients included in the integrated care model for each general practitioner as an instrumental variable. Results 1700 patients were cared for by integrated care and 1371 by diabetes clinics. Mortality rate ratios were 0.83 (95%CI 0.60–1.13) and 0.95 (95%CI 0.54–1.70) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, and incidence rate ratios were 0.90 (95%CI 0.76–1.06) and 0.91 (95%CI 0.69–1.20) for all-cause and cardiovascular disease hospitalisation, respectively. Conclusion For low risk patients with type 2 diabetes, the integrated care model involving both general practitioner and diabetes clinic professionals showed similar mortality and hospitalisation as a model with higher use of specialized care in an exclusively diabetes clinic setting. PMID:29584749

Risk factors for suicide in schizophrenia: systematic review and clinical recommendations.

PubMed

Popovic, D; Benabarre, A; Crespo, J M; Goikolea, J M; González-Pinto, A; Gutiérrez-Rojas, L; Montes, J M; Vieta, E

2014-12-01

To identify risk factors associated with suicide of patients with schizophrenia and provide clinical recommendations, which integrate research findings into a consensus based on clinical experience and evidence. A task force formed of experts and clinicians iteratively developed consensus through serial revisions using the Delphi method. Initial survey items were based on systematic literature review published up to June 2013. Various risk factors were reported to be implicated in suicide in schizophrenia. Our findings indicate that suicide risk in schizophrenia is mainly related to affective symptoms, history of a suicide attempt and number of psychiatric admissions. Other risk factors identified are given by younger age, closeness to illness onset, older age at illness onset, male sex, substance abuse and period during or following psychiatric discharge. Integrating the evidence and the experience of the task force members, a consensus was reached on 14 clinical recommendations. Identification of risk factors for suicide in individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia is imperative to improve clinical management and develop strategies to reduce the incidence of suicide in this population. This study provides the critical overview of available data and clinical recommendations on recognition and management of the above-mentioned risk factors. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fully automated adipose tissue measurement on abdominal CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Jianhua; Sussman, Daniel L.; Summers, Ronald M.

2011-03-01

Obesity has become widespread in America and has been associated as a risk factor for many illnesses. Adipose tissue (AT) content, especially visceral AT (VAT), is an important indicator for risks of many disorders, including heart disease and diabetes. Measuring adipose tissue (AT) with traditional means is often unreliable and inaccurate. CT provides a means to measure AT accurately and consistently. We present a fully automated method to segment and measure abdominal AT in CT. Our method integrates image preprocessing which attempts to correct for image artifacts and inhomogeneities. We use fuzzy cmeans to cluster AT regions and active contour models to separate subcutaneous and visceral AT. We tested our method on 50 abdominal CT scans and evaluated the correlations between several measurements.

Agile: From Software to Mission Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trimble, Jay; Shirley, Mark; Hobart, Sarah

2017-01-01

To maximize efficiency and flexibility in Mission Operations System (MOS) design, we are evolving principles from agile and lean methods for software, to the complete mission system. This allows for reduced operational risk at reduced cost, and achieves a more effective design through early integration of operations into mission system engineering and flight system design. The core principles are assessment of capability through demonstration, risk reduction through targeted experiments, early test and deployment, and maturation of processes and tools through use.

[Sport as a profession: medical and social aspects].

PubMed

Izmerov, N F

2011-01-01

The author analyses possible use of methods and achievements of industrial medicine in solving problems of acme in sports. The article covers theoretic, methodologic and practical basis for possible integration of industrial medicine and sports medicine. Mechanisms of such interdisciplinary integration include current legal basis, scientific research (mostly, concept of occupational risk, norm and pathology concept, doctrine of preventive medicine, etc), practical experience accumulated in this country and abroad. Some aspects of public health preservation in contemporary Russia are also tackled.

[Integral quantitative evaluation of working conditions in the construction industry].

PubMed

Guseĭnov, A A

1993-01-01

Present method evaluating the quality of environment (using MAC and MAL) does not enable to assess completely and objectively the work conditions of building industry due to multiple confounding elements. A solution to this complicated problem including the analysis of various correlating elements of the system "human--work conditions--environment" may be encouraged by social norm of morbidity, which is independent on industrial and natural environment. The complete integral assessment enables to see the whole situation and reveal the points at risk.

Rationale, design and methods of the HEALTHY study behavior intervention component

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

HEALTHY was a multi-center primary prevention trial designed to reduce risk factors for type 2 diabetes in adolescents. Seven centers each recruited six middle schools that were randomized to either intervention or control. The HEALTHY intervention integrated multiple components in nutrition, physic...

20171015 - Integrating Toxicity, Toxicokinetic, and Exposure Data for Risk-based Chemical Alternatives Assessment (ISES)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to predict the margin between the dose needed for adverse chemical effects and actual human exposure rates, data on hazard, exposure, and toxicokinetics are needed. In vitro methods, biomonitoring, and mathematical modeling have provided initial estimates for many extant...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Reducing the risk of rear-end collisions with infrastructure-to-vehicle (I2V) integration of variable speed limit control and adaptive cruise control system.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Wang, Hao; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shanwen; Xiang, Yun

2016-08-17

Adaptive cruise control (ACC) has been investigated recently to explore ways to increase traffic capacity, stabilize traffic flow, and improve traffic safety. However, researchers seldom have studied the integration of ACC and roadside control methods such as the variable speed limit (VSL) to improve safety. The primary objective of this study was to develop an infrastructure-to-vehicle (I2V) integrated system that incorporated both ACC and VSL to reduce rear-end collision risks on freeways. The intelligent driver model was firstly modified to simulate ACC behavior and then the VSL strategy used in this article was introduced. Next, the I2V system was proposed to integrate the 2 advanced techniques, ACC and VSL. Four scenarios of no control, VSL only, ACC only, and the I2V system were tested in simulation experiments. Time exposed time to collision (TET) and time integrated time to collision (TIT), 2 surrogate safety measures derived from time to collision (TTC), were used to evaluate safety issues associated with rear-end collisions. The total travel times of each scenario were also compared. The simulation results indicated that both the VSL-only and ACC-only methods had a positive impact on reducing the TET and TIT values (reduced by 53.0 and 58.6% and 59.0 and 65.3%, respectively). The I2V system combined the advantages of both ACC and VSL to achieve the most safety benefits (reduced by 71.5 and 77.3%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis of the TTC threshold also showed that the I2V system obtained the largest safety benefits with all of the TTC threshold values. The impact of different market penetration rates of ACC vehicles in I2V system indicated that safety benefits increase with an increase in ACC proportions. Compared to VSL-only and ACC-only scenarios, this integrated I2V system is more effective in reducing rear-end collision risks. The findings of this study provide useful information for traffic agencies to implement novel techniques to improve safety on freeways.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

75 FR 1617 - Draft Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of the Summary Information in the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-12

... on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-09/013). The draft document was... ``Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of the Summary Information in the Integrated Risk Information...

76 FR 54228 - Draft Toxicological Review of Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-31

... Toxicological Review of Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R... Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

Using an integrated approach to the assessment of the psychosocial work environment: the case of a major hospital in northern Italy.

PubMed

Lanfranchi, Fiorella; Alaimo, Sara; Conway, P M

2014-01-01

In 2010, Italian regulatory guidelines have been issued consisting of a stepwise procedure for the assessment and management of work-related stress. However, research that empirically examines whether this procedure proves effective in accurately identifying critical psychosocial factors and informing risk management is scarce. To examine the differential sensitivity of two approaches to risk assessment, the first based on objective instruments only, the second consisting of an integrated approach combining different methods and theoretical perspectives. We examined a sample of 306 healthcare employees in a large-size hospital in northern Italy, using a series of tools, both quantitative (an observational checklist and the HSE-IT and MOHQ questionnaires) and qualitative (Focus Groups). Through instrument-specific reference values, we then compared risk profiles between different homogeneous groups within the institution. The psychosocial work environment resulted to be far more positive when adopting the first compared to the second approach to risk assessment. The latter approach was also more sensitive in detecting between-groups differences in risk profiles. Furthermore, the Focus Groups returned a more context-specific picture of the psychosocial work environment. Finally, going beyond the emphasis on negative working conditions inherent in the other quantitative instruments, the MOHQ allowed for also identifying health-promoting factors in need for improvement. Although more research is needed to confirm our findings, the present study suggests that using an integrated approach to assess the psychosocial work environment may be the most effective way to accurately identify risk factors and support the management process.

The Role of Applied Epidemiology Methods in the Disaster Management Cycle

PubMed Central

Heumann, Michael; Perrotta, Dennis; Wolkin, Amy F.; Schnall, Amy H.; Podgornik, Michelle N.; Cruz, Miguel A.; Horney, Jennifer A.; Zane, David; Roisman, Rachel; Greenspan, Joel R.; Thoroughman, Doug; Anderson, Henry A.; Wells, Eden V.; Simms, Erin F.

2014-01-01

Disaster epidemiology (i.e., applied epidemiology in disaster settings) presents a source of reliable and actionable information for decision-makers and stakeholders in the disaster management cycle. However, epidemiological methods have yet to be routinely integrated into disaster response and fully communicated to response leaders. We present a framework consisting of rapid needs assessments, health surveillance, tracking and registries, and epidemiological investigations, including risk factor and health outcome studies and evaluation of interventions, which can be practiced throughout the cycle. Applying each method can result in actionable information for planners and decision-makers responsible for preparedness, response, and recovery. Disaster epidemiology, once integrated into the disaster management cycle, can provide the evidence base to inform and enhance response capability within the public health infrastructure. PMID:25211748

Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

2013-04-01

In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks according to UNU-EHS methodology: 'exposure' and 'vulnerability', consisting of 'susceptibility', 'coping capacity' and 'adaptive capacity'. Relevant indicators for each block were selected and verified by statistical methods. The authors estimated the share of people potentially exposed to flooding with the help of geographic information system. The authors, using the technique of World Risk Index (2011), calculated sub-indices for each block, and made the maps. Areas with the highest socio-economic risks were identified on the Azov and the Black sea coast: Slavyansky, Krymsky, Krasnoarmeysky, Temryuksky and Primorsko-Akhtarsky municipal districts. On the third stage, the main purpose was to integrate and use both approaches in evaluation of socio-economic risks on micro-geographical level for different categories of the population and different industries (agriculture, utilities, etc.), using 'field' data. Field study was conducted in Slavyansky municipal district of Krasnodar region and included opinion polls, special interviews with businessmen and authorities, collection of municipal statistics and data from companies, etc. Vulnerability maps, speed evacuation maps, maps of possible locations of warning systems and maps of high insurance risks were developed. Proposals for improvement of legislation for coastal zones were prepared. The conducted research has shown the importance of both social ('vulnerability'), and economic ('damage') components of risk assessment. Using the previously discussed methods individually does not bring desired results because of deficiencies of Russian statistics. It is essential for accurate risk assessment to use an 'ensemble' of methods (statistical, field observations, etc.) on micro geographic level. The work has a practical importance for improving safety of local communities.

Aspects of the BPRIM Language for Risk Driven Process Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sienou, Amadou; Lamine, Elyes; Pingaud, Hervé; Karduck, Achim

Nowadays organizations are exposed to frequent changes in business environment requiring continuous alignment of business processes on business strategies. This agility requires methods promoted in enterprise engineering approaches. Risk consideration in enterprise engineering is getting important since the business environment is becoming more and more competitive and unpredictable. Business processes are subject to the same quality requirements as material and human resources. Thus, process management is supposed to tackle value creation challenges but also the ones related to value preservation. Our research considers risk driven business process design as an integral part of enterprise engineering. A graphical modelling language for risk driven business process engineering was introduced in former research. This paper extends the language and handles questions related to modelling risk in organisational context.

Viewpoint on ISA TR84.0.02--simplified methods and fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Summers, A E

2000-01-01

ANSI/ISA-S84.01-1996 and IEC 61508 require the establishment of a safety integrity level for any safety instrumented system or safety related system used to mitigate risk. Each stage of design, operation, maintenance, and testing is judged against this safety integrity level. Quantitative techniques can be used to verify whether the safety integrity level is met. ISA-dTR84.0.02 is a technical report under development by ISA, which discusses how to apply quantitative analysis techniques to safety instrumented systems. This paper discusses two of those techniques: (1) Simplified equations and (2) Fault tree analysis.

Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

PubMed Central

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

2014-01-01

Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

Integrating smoking control policies into employee benefits: a survey of large California corporations.

PubMed Central

Schauffler, H H

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVES. Public health policy promotes the use of risk-rating health insurance and payment for smoking cessation as economic incentives to encourage smoking cessation. This study was undertaken to learn more about the adoption of these policies in large corporations. METHODS. A random sample survey of 280 private California corporations with more than 500 employees was undertaken to document the prevalence of policies integrating smoking control into employee benefit designs. RESULTS. Only 8.6% of large corporations had ever considered risk-rating health insurance premiums using smoking status and only 2.15% had implemented a risk-rating policy. Nearly 20% of the companies offered health insurance plans that covered smoking cessation services. Subsidization or payment for smoking cessation outside health insurance was provided by over 37% of the companies surveyed, and 87% had adopted formal work-site smoking policies. CONCLUSION. Benefit policies that provide financial support to smokers to participate in smoking cessation services are much more prevalent and are viewed more positively by the benefits managers in large corporations than are policies to risk-rate health insurance premiums on the basis of smoking. PMID:8362996

An integrated computational approach can classify VHL missense mutations according to risk of clear cell renal carcinoma

PubMed Central

Gossage, Lucy; Pires, Douglas E. V.; Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro; Asenjo, Juan; Bycroft, Mark; Blundell, Tom L.; Eisen, Tim

2014-01-01

Mutations in the von Hippel–Lindau (VHL) gene are pathogenic in VHL disease, congenital polycythaemia and clear cell renal carcinoma (ccRCC). pVHL forms a ternary complex with elongin C and elongin B, critical for pVHL stability and function, which interacts with Cullin-2 and RING-box protein 1 to target hypoxia-inducible factor for polyubiquitination and proteasomal degradation. We describe a comprehensive database of missense VHL mutations linked to experimental and clinical data. We use predictions from in silico tools to link the functional effects of missense VHL mutations to phenotype. The risk of ccRCC in VHL disease is linked to the degree of destabilization resulting from missense mutations. An optimized binary classification system (symphony), which integrates predictions from five in silico methods, can predict the risk of ccRCC associated with VHL missense mutations with high sensitivity and specificity. We use symphony to generate predictions for risk of ccRCC for all possible VHL missense mutations and present these predictions, in association with clinical and experimental data, in a publically available, searchable web server. PMID:24969085

Stress, autonomic imbalance, and the prediction of metabolic risk: A model and a proposal for research.

PubMed

Wulsin, Lawson; Herman, James; Thayer, Julian F

2018-03-01

Devising novel prevention strategies for metabolic disorders will depend in part on the careful elucidation of the common pathways for developing metabolic risks. The neurovisceral integration model has proposed that autonomic imbalance plays an important role in the pathway from acute and chronic stress to cardiovascular disease. Though generally overlooked by clinicians, autonomic imbalance (sympathetic overactivity and/or parasympathetic underactivity) can be measured and modified by methods that are available in primary care. This review applies the neurovisceral integration concept to the clinical setting by proposing that autonomic imbalance plays a primary role in the development of metabolic risks. We present a testable model, a systematic review of the evidence in support of autonomic imbalance as a predictor for metabolic risks, and specific approaches to test this model as a guide to future research on the role of stress in metabolic disorders. We propose that autonomic imbalance deserves consideration by researchers, clinicians, and policymakers as a target for early interventions to prevent metabolic disorders. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrating Genetics and Social Science: Genetic Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W.; Israel, Salomon

2014-01-01

The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public-use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry. PMID:25343363

in vivo quantification of white matter microstructure for use in aging: A focus on two emerging techniques

PubMed Central

Lamar, Melissa; Zhou, Xiaohong Joe; Charlton, Rebecca A.; Dean, Douglas; Little, Deborah; Deoni, Sean C

2013-01-01

Human brain imaging has seen many advances in the quantification of white matter in vivo. For example, these advances have revealed the association between white matter damage and vascular disease as well as their impact on risk for and development of dementia and depression in an aging population. Current neuroimaging methods to quantify white matter damage provide a foundation for understanding such age-related neuropathology; however, these methods are not as adept at determining the underlying microstructural abnormalities signaling at risk tissue or driving white matter damage in the aging brain. This review will begin with a brief overview of the use of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in understanding white matter alterations in aging before focusing in more detail on select advances in both diffusion-based methods and multi-component relaxometry techniques for imaging white matter microstructural integrity within myelin sheaths and the axons they encase. While DTI greatly extended the field of white matter interrogation, these more recent technological advances will add clarity to the underlying microstructural mechanisms that contribute to white matter damage. More specifically, the methods highlighted in this review may prove more sensitive (and specific) for determining the contribution of myelin versus axonal integrity to the aging of white matter in brain. PMID:24080382

Risk evaluation of highway engineering project based on the fuzzy-AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qian; Wei, Yajun

2011-10-01

Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with technology, economy, management and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it needs to strengthen risk management urgently. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of highway engineering, and the study of the basic theory on risk evaluation, the paper built an index system of highway project risk evaluation. Besides based on fuzzy mathematics principle, analytical hierarchy process was used and as a result, the model of the comprehensive appraisal method of fuzzy and AHP was set up for the risk evaluation of express way concessionary project. The validity and the practicability of the risk evaluation of expressway concessionary project were verified after the model was applied to the practice of a project.

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauder, Stephen P.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration (ESI) Risk. An ESI risk may require visibility and risk handling by multiple organizations. The Integrated Risk Working Group (IRWG) is a small team of Risk experts that are responsible for collaborating and communicating best practices. In addition, the forum facilitates proper integration of risks across the Enterprise. The IRWG uses a Continuous Risk Management approach for facilitating the identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and controlling of ESI Risks. The ESD Division, Programs, and Integrated Task Teams identify ESI Risks. The IRWG maintains a set of metrics for understanding Enterprise Risk process and the overall Risk Posture. The team is also actively involved in the modeling of risk for Enterprise Performance Management. With the Enterprise being constrained in Schedule and Budget, and with significant technical complexity, the appropriate use of Risk Management techniques is crucial to the success of the Enterprise. The IRWG achieves this through the modified approach, providing a forum for collaboration on risks that cross boundaries between the separate entities.

Proposed key characteristics of male reproductive toxicants as a method for organizing and screening mechanistic evidence for non-cancer outcomes.

EPA Science Inventory

The adoption of systematic review practices for risk assessment includes integration of evidence obtained from experimental, epidemiological, and mechanistic studies. Although mechanistic evidence plays an important role in mode of action analysis, the process of sorting and anal...

Invited seminar, University of North Texas: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Invited OSU class lecture: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services - ESRP mtg

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services - 4/27/10

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

A Review of Attachment and Its Relationship to the Working Alliance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kietaibl, Carin M.

2012-01-01

Attachment theorists propose that attachment styles affect the development of relationships inside and outside of therapy. By integrating attachment theory into their work with clients, therapists may strengthen the working alliance and lower the risk of clients prematurely ending therapy. Attachment theory is reviewed, and methods of integrating…

Laptop Computers in the Elementary Classroom: Authentic Instruction with At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemker, Kate; Barron, Ann E.; Harmes, J. Christine

2007-01-01

This case study investigated the integration of laptop computers into an elementary classroom in a low socioeconomic status (SES) school. Specifically, the research examined classroom management techniques and aspects of authentic learning relative to the student projects and activities. A mixed methods approach included classroom observations,…

Ecological Risk Assessment with MCDM of Some Invasive Alien Plants in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Guowen; Chen, Weiguang; Lin, Meizhen; Zheng, Yanling; Guo, Peiguo; Zheng, Yisheng

Alien plant invasion is an urgent global issue that threatens the sustainable development of the ecosystem health. The study of its ecological risk assessment (ERA) could help us to prevent and reduce the invasion risk more effectively. Based on the theory of ERA and methods of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), and through the analyses of the characteristics and processes of alien plant invasion, this paper discusses the methodologies of ERA of alien plant invasion. The assessment procedure consisted of risk source analysis, receptor analysis, exposure and hazard assessment, integral assessment, and countermeasure of risk management. The indicator system of risk source assessment as well as the indices and formulas applied to measure the ecological loss and risk were established, and the method for comprehensively assessing the ecological risk of alien plant invasion was worked out. The result of ecological risk analysis to 9 representative invasive alien plants in China shows that the ecological risk of Erigeron annuus, Ageratum conyzoides, Alternanthera philoxeroides and Mikania midrantha is high (grade1-2), that of Oxalis corymbosa and Wedelia chinensis comes next (grade3), while Mirabilis jalapa, Pilea microphylla and Calendula officinalis of the last (grade 4). Risk strategies are put forward on this basis.

Role of data warehousing in healthcare epidemiology.

PubMed

Wyllie, D; Davies, J

2015-04-01

Electronic storage of healthcare data, including individual-level risk factors for both infectious and other diseases, is increasing. These data can be integrated at hospital, regional and national levels. Data sources that contain risk factor and outcome information for a wide range of conditions offer the potential for efficient epidemiological analysis of multiple diseases. Opportunities may also arise for monitoring healthcare processes. Integrating diverse data sources presents epidemiological, practical, and ethical challenges. For example, diagnostic criteria, outcome definitions, and ascertainment methods may differ across the data sources. Data volumes may be very large, requiring sophisticated computing technology. Given the large populations involved, perhaps the most challenging aspect is how informed consent can be obtained for the development of integrated databases, particularly when it is not easy to demonstrate their potential. In this article, we discuss some of the ups and downs of recent projects as well as the potential of data warehousing for antimicrobial resistance monitoring. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

Integrated Research on Disaster Risk - A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, T.

2016-12-01

Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, generally known as IRDR, is a decade-long research programme co-sponsored by the International Council for Science (ICSU), the International Social Science Council (ISSC), and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). It is a global, multi-disciplinary approach to dealing with the challenges brought by natural disasters, mitigating their impacts, and improving related policy-making mechanisms. The home page is at: http://www.irdrinternational.org/The research programme was named Integrated Research on Disaster Risk to indicate that it is addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards. In November 2008 and May 2009 respectively, both the ISSC and the UNISDR agreed to join the ICSU in co-sponsoring the IRDR programme. Although the approaches in the sciences vary, the IRDR programme approaches the issues of natural and human-induced hazards and disasters from several perspectives: from the hazards to the disasters, and from the human exposures and vulnerabilities back to the hazards. This coordinated and multi-dimensional approach takes the IRDR programme beyond approaches that have traditionally been undertaken To meet its research objectives the IRDR established four core projects, comprising working groups of experts from diverse disciplines, to formulate new methods in addressing the shortcomings of current disaster risk research. Assessment of Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (AIRDR) Disaster Loss Data (DATA) Forensic Investigations of Disasters (FORIN) Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA) Dr Tom Beer was a member of both the scoping and planning groups and was a member of the committee to undertake a mid-term review of IRDR with the terms of reference being to examine and to report by November 2016. 1. Strategic planning and implementation 2. Governance 3. Secretariat, funding and operations 4. Stakeholders and partnerships 5. Communication, visibility and influence 6. Future development His talk will give an overview of the history and science of IRDR and some of the outcomes of the mid-term review.

Failure analysis in the identification of synergies between cleaning monitoring methods.

PubMed

Whiteley, Greg S; Derry, Chris; Glasbey, Trevor

2015-02-01

The 4 monitoring methods used to manage the quality assurance of cleaning outcomes within health care settings are visual inspection, microbial recovery, fluorescent marker assessment, and rapid ATP bioluminometry. These methods each generate different types of information, presenting a challenge to the successful integration of monitoring results. A systematic approach to safety and quality control can be used to interrogate the known qualities of cleaning monitoring methods and provide a prospective management tool for infection control professionals. We investigated the use of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for measuring failure risk arising through each cleaning monitoring method. FMEA uses existing data in a structured risk assessment tool that identifies weaknesses in products or processes. Our FMEA approach used the literature and a small experienced team to construct a series of analyses to investigate the cleaning monitoring methods in a way that minimized identified failure risks. FMEA applied to each of the cleaning monitoring methods revealed failure modes for each. The combined use of cleaning monitoring methods in sequence is preferable to their use in isolation. When these 4 cleaning monitoring methods are used in combination in a logical sequence, the failure modes noted for any 1 can be complemented by the strengths of the alternatives, thereby circumventing the risk of failure of any individual cleaning monitoring method. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Jianxia; Li, Yunyun; Wang, Yimin; Yuan, Meng

2016-09-01

It is critical to assess drought risk based on a reliably integrated drought index incorporating comprehensive information of meteorology, hydrology and agriculture drought indices, which is of great value for further understanding the future drought tendency, prevention and mitigation. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to focus on constructing a multivariate integrated drought index (MIDI) by coupling four drought indices (i.e., Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (PAP), Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP), Standardized Precipitation Index with 6-month aggregation time step (SPI6) and Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI)) to objectively and comprehensively investigate drought risk. The variable fuzzy set theory and entropy weight method are used during the MIDI construction process. Based on the MIDI, a drought event including drought duration and severity is redefined using run theory. Then copula-based drought risk is fully assessed through the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. Results indicate the following: (1) the constructed MIDI is consistent with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP) series, and it is more sensitive and effective to capture historical drought events; (2) the drought characteristics present noticeable spatial variability among five subzones, and the entire basin has 49 droughts with the longest drought duration spanning 8.55 months; and (3) the mainstream, especially the middle and lower reaches, has higher occurrences of severe droughts for approximately every 10 years.

Real-Time Safety Risk Assessment Based on a Real-Time Location System for Hydropower Construction Sites

PubMed Central

Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

2014-01-01

The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns. PMID:25114958

Real-time safety risk assessment based on a real-time location system for hydropower construction sites.

PubMed

Jiang, Hanchen; Lin, Peng; Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

2014-01-01

The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns.

A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management. PMID:24191144

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

Vacuum decay container/closure integrity testing technology. Part 2. Comparison to dye ingress tests.

PubMed

Wolf, Heinz; Stauffer, Tony; Chen, Shu-Chen Y; Lee, Yoojin; Forster, Ronald; Ludzinski, Miron; Kamat, Madhav; Mulhall, Brian; Guazzo, Dana Morton

2009-01-01

Part 1 of this series demonstrated that a container closure integrity test performed according to ASTM F2338-09 Standard Test Method for Nondestructive Detection of Leaks in Packages by Vacuum Decay Method using a VeriPac 325/LV vacuum decay leak tester by Packaging Technologies & Inspection, LLC (PTI) is capable of detecting leaks > or = 5.0 microm (nominal diameter) in rigid, nonporous package systems, such as prefilled glass syringes. The current study compared USP, Ph.Eur. and ISO dye ingress integrity test methods to PTI's vacuum decay technology for the detection of these same 5-, 10-, and 15-microm laser-drilled hole defects in 1-mL glass prefilled syringes. The study was performed at three test sites using several inspectors and a variety of inspection conditions. No standard dye ingress method was found to reliably identify all holed syringes. Modifications to these standard dye tests' challenge conditions increased the potential for dye ingress, and adjustments to the visual inspection environment improved dye ingress detection. However, the risk of false positive test results with dye ingress tests remained. In contrast, the nondestructive vacuum decay leak test method reliably identified syringes with holes > or = 5.0 microm.

Communication of medical product risk: how effective is effective enough?

PubMed

Goldman, Stephen A

2004-01-01

Ever-increasing attention is being paid worldwide to the safety of medical products, and the risks associated with their use. The integral role of risk communication in overall risk management is demonstrated by several recent market withdrawals of drugs, in which a perceived incapability of healthcare systems to manage well-characterised, avoidable risks was a significant factor. With advances in clinical pharmacology, pharmacogenomics and pharmacoepidemiology expanding our knowledge of medical products, effective delivery of the latest safety-related information to health professionals and consumers becomes even more imperative. In this regard, it is important to evaluate whether current modes of risk communication lead to desired changes in relevant behaviours such as prescribing or drug monitoring, particularly in context with which achieved level of effectiveness is deemed acceptable. This is crucial, as there have been product-specific risk communication efforts that achieved a fair degree of success, yet were not seen as effective enough to prevent market withdrawal of the medical product in question. In the service of improving public health through enhanced risk communication, it is essential to critically assess current methods, both as to results achieved (or not), and whether each method is applicable to the various types of risks associated with medical product use. Furthermore, just as combining methods may well improve overall risk communication, there are societal and psychological factors that must be considered in attempting to maximise effectiveness. However, in assessing risk communication effectiveness, the particular benefit- risk relationship of any individual medical product must also be part of the evaluative process.

Heavy metals in soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area in China.

PubMed

Gu, Weihua; Bai, Jianfeng; Yao, Haiyan; Zhao, Jing; Zhuang, Xuning; Huang, Qing; Zhang, Chenglong; Wang, JingWei

2017-11-01

For the objective of evaluating the contamination degree of heavy metals and analysing its variation trend in soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area in Shanghai, China, evaluation methods, which include single factor index method, geo-accumulation index method, comprehensive pollution index method, and potential ecological risk index method, were adopted in this study. The results revealed that the soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area was polluted by arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and chromium. It also demonstrated that the concentrations of heavy metals were increased over time. Exceptionally, the average value of the metalloid (arsenic) was 73.31 mg kg -1 in 2014, while it was 58.31 mg kg -1 in the first half of 2015, and it was 2.93 times and 2.33 times higher than that of the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soil in 2014 and the first half of 2015, respectively. The sequences of the contamination degree of heavy metals in 2014 and the first half of 2015 were cadmium > lead > copper > chromium > zinc and cadmium > lead > chromium > zinc > copper. From the analysis of the potential ecological risk index method, arsenic and cadmium had higher ecological risk than other heavy metals. The integrated ecological risk index of heavy metals (cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and chromium) and metalloid (arsenic) was 394.10 in 2014, while it was 656.16 in the first half of 2015, thus documenting a strong ecological risk.

Augmented halal food traceability system: analysis and design using UML

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, Y. V.; Fauzi, A. M.; Irawadi, T. T.; Djatna, T.

2018-04-01

Augmented halal food traceability is expanding the range of halal traceability in food supply chain where currently only available for tracing from the source of raw material to the industrial warehouse or inbound logistic. The halal traceability system must be developed in the integrated form that includes inbound and outbound logistics. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable initial model of integrated traceability system of halal food supply chain. The method was based on unified modeling language (UML) such as use case, sequence, and business process diagram. A goal programming model was formulated considering two objective functions which include (1) minimization of risk of halal traceability failures happened potentially during outbound logistics activities and (2) maximization of quality of halal product information. The result indicates the supply of material is the most important point to be considered in minimizing the risk of failure of halal food traceability system whereas no risk observed in manufacturing and distribution.

Integrating geo-referenced multiscale and multidisciplinary data for the management of biodiversity in livestock genetic resources.

PubMed

Joost, S; Colli, L; Baret, P V; Garcia, J F; Boettcher, P J; Tixier-Boichard, M; Ajmone-Marsan, P

2010-05-01

In livestock genetic resource conservation, decision making about conservation priorities is based on the simultaneous analysis of several different criteria that may contribute to long-term sustainable breeding conditions, such as genetic and demographic characteristics, environmental conditions, and role of the breed in the local or regional economy. Here we address methods to integrate different data sets and highlight problems related to interdisciplinary comparisons. Data integration is based on the use of geographic coordinates and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In addition to technical problems related to projection systems, GIS have to face the challenging issue of the non homogeneous scale of their data sets. We give examples of the successful use of GIS for data integration and examine the risk of obtaining biased results when integrating datasets that have been captured at different scales.

Quasi-Static Probabilistic Structural Analyses Process and Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, B.; Verderaime, V.

1999-01-01

Current deterministic structural methods are easily applied to substructures and components, and analysts have built great design insights and confidence in them over the years. However, deterministic methods cannot support systems risk analyses, and it was recently reported that deterministic treatment of statistical data is inconsistent with error propagation laws that can result in unevenly conservative structural predictions. Assuming non-nal distributions and using statistical data formats throughout prevailing stress deterministic processes lead to a safety factor in statistical format, which integrated into the safety index, provides a safety factor and first order reliability relationship. The embedded safety factor in the safety index expression allows a historically based risk to be determined and verified over a variety of quasi-static metallic substructures consistent with the traditional safety factor methods and NASA Std. 5001 criteria.

Integrated Quantitative Cancer Risk Assessment of Inorganic Arsenic

EPA Science Inventory

This paper attempts to make an integrated risk assessment of arsenic, using data on humans exposed to arsenic via inhalation and ingestion. he data useful for making an integrated analysis and data gaps are discussed. rsenic provides a rare opportunity to compare the cancer risk ...

AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

Integrated genetic and epigenetic prediction of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Dogan, Meeshanthini V; Grumbach, Isabella M; Michaelson, Jacob J; Philibert, Robert A

2018-01-01

An improved method for detecting coronary heart disease (CHD) could have substantial clinical impact. Building on the idea that systemic effects of CHD risk factors are a conglomeration of genetic and environmental factors, we use machine learning techniques and integrate genetic, epigenetic and phenotype data from the Framingham Heart Study to build and test a Random Forest classification model for symptomatic CHD. Our classifier was trained on n = 1,545 individuals and consisted of four DNA methylation sites, two SNPs, age and gender. The methylation sites and SNPs were selected during the training phase. The final trained model was then tested on n = 142 individuals. The test data comprised of individuals removed based on relatedness to those in the training dataset. This integrated classifier was capable of classifying symptomatic CHD status of those in the test set with an accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 78%, 0.75 and 0.80, respectively. In contrast, a model using only conventional CHD risk factors as predictors had an accuracy and sensitivity of only 65% and 0.42, respectively, but with a specificity of 0.89 in the test set. Regression analyses of the methylation signatures illustrate our ability to map these signatures to known risk factors in CHD pathogenesis. These results demonstrate the capability of an integrated approach to effectively model symptomatic CHD status. These results also suggest that future studies of biomaterial collected from longitudinally informative cohorts that are specifically characterized for cardiac disease at follow-up could lead to the introduction of sensitive, readily employable integrated genetic-epigenetic algorithms for predicting onset of future symptomatic CHD.

Embedding Scientific Integrity and Ethics into the Scientific Process and Research Data Lifecycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gundersen, L. C.

2016-12-01

Predicting climate change, developing resources sustainably, and mitigating natural hazard risk are complex interdisciplinary challenges in the geosciences that require the integration of data and knowledge from disparate disciplines and scales. This kind of interdisciplinary science can only thrive if scientific communities work together and adhere to common standards of scientific integrity, ethics, data management, curation, and sharing. Science and data without integrity and ethics can erode the very fabric of the scientific enterprise and potentially harm society and the planet. Inaccurate risk analyses of natural hazards can lead to poor choices in construction, insurance, and emergency response. Incorrect assessment of mineral resources can bankrupt a company, destroy a local economy, and contaminate an ecosystem. This paper presents key ethics and integrity questions paired with the major components of the research data life cycle. The questions can be used by the researcher during the scientific process to help ensure the integrity and ethics of their research and adherence to sound data management practice. Questions include considerations for open, collaborative science, which is fundamentally changing the responsibility of scientists regarding data sharing and reproducibility. The publication of primary data, methods, models, software, and workflows must become a norm of science. There are also questions that prompt the scientist to think about the benefit of their work to society; ensuring equity, respect, and fairness in working with others; and always striving for honesty, excellence, and transparency.

2014 SRP Integration Transcript

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Susan

2014-01-01

HRP's mission is to reduce the risks to human health and performance during long-duration spaceflight. The HRP Integrated Research Plan (IRP) contains the research plans for the 32 risks that require research to characterize and mitigate. From its inception the "integrate" aspect of the IRP has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance. Even though each risk in the IRP has its own research plan and is tracked separately, the interrelated nature of health and performance requires that they be addressed in an integrative or holistic fashion so that the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body and the integrated response to spaceflight can be addressed. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres, and light/dark cycles; space radiation; isolation; noise; and periods of high or low workload. Long-term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive, and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts; cardiovascular deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Expanding cross-disciplinary integrative approaches that synthesize concepts or data from two or more disciplines would improve the identification and characterization risk factors, and enable the development of countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. Cross-disciplinary approaches might also help to illuminate problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure adversely impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or to identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture. In 2014 HRP embarked on a pilot study that combined four SRPs (and 12 HRP risks) - Behavioral Health, Sensorimotor, Cardiovascular, and Bone/Muscle - specifically to discuss cross-disciplinary integration. The points outlined below were suggested to seed the discussion, within the bounding constraint that research plans must be feasible and relevant to the HRP mission. While these were suggested starting points, the overall guiding principle was to allow free discussion from panel members on any aspect of integrated research that they felt was important, Existing cross-disciplinary integration as documented in the IRP (HRR), Existing or needed integration already identified by HRP, but not yet well defined within the IRP, Areas of integration that are missing.

Exploring Injury Panorama, Consequences, and Recovery among Bus Crash Survivors: A Mixed-Methods Research Study.

PubMed

Doohan, Isabelle; Björnstig, Ulf; Östlund, Ulrika; Saveman, Britt-Inger

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to explore physical and mental consequences and injury mechanisms among bus crash survivors to identify aspects that influence recovery. The study participants were the total population of survivors (N=56) from a bus crash in Sweden. The study had a mixed-methods design that provided quantitative and qualitative data on injuries, mental well-being, and experiences. Results from descriptive statistics and qualitative thematic analysis were interpreted and integrated in a mixed-methods analysis. Among the survivors, 11 passengers (20%) sustained moderate to severe injuries, and the remaining 45 (80%) had minor or no physical injuries. Two-thirds of the survivors screened for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) risk were assessed, during the period of one to three months after the bus crash, as not being at-risk, and the remaining one-third were at-risk. The thematic analysis resulted in themes covering the consequences and varying aspects that affected the survivors' recoveries. The integrated findings are in the form of four "core cases" of survivors who represent a combination of characteristics: injury severity, mental well-being, social context, and other aspects hindering and facilitating recovery. Core case Avery represents a survivor who had minor or no injuries and who demonstrated a successful mental recovery. Core case Blair represents a survivor with moderate to severe injuries who experienced a successful mental recovery. Core case Casey represents a survivor who sustained minor injuries or no injuries in the crash but who was at-risk of developing PTSD. Core case Daryl represents a survivor who was at-risk of developing PTSD and who also sustained moderate to severe injuries in the crash. The present study provides a multi-faceted understanding of mass-casualty incident (MCI) survivors (ie, having minor injuries does not always correspond to minimal risk for PTSD and moderate to severe injuries do not always correspond to increased risk for PTSD). Injury mitigation measures (eg, safer roadside material and anti-lacerative windows) would reduce the consequences of bus crashes. A well-educated rescue team and a compassionate and competent social environment will facilitate recovery. Doohan I , Björnstig U , Östlund U , Saveman BI . Exploring injury panorama, consequences, and recovery among bus crash survivors: a mixed-methods research study. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(2):165-174.

Bridging the Divide between Safety and Risk Management for your Project or Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutomski, Mike

2005-01-01

This presentation will bridge the divide between these separate but overlapping disciplines and help explain how to use Risk Management as an effective management decision support tool that includes safety. Risk Management is an over arching communication tool used by management to prioritize and effectively mitigate potential problems before they concur. Risk Management encompasses every kind of potential problem that can occur on a program or project. Some of these are safety issues such as hazards that have a specific likelihood and consequence that need to be controlled and included to show an integrated picture of accepted) mitigated, and residual risk. Integrating safety and other assurance disciplines is paramount to accurately representing a program s or projects risk posture. Risk is made up of several components such as technical) cost, schedule, or supportability. Safety should also be a consideration for every risk. The safety component can also have an impact on the technical, cost, and schedule aspect of a given risk. The current formats used for communication of safety and risk issues are not consistent or integrated. The presentation will explore the history of these disciplines, current work to integrate them, and suggestions for integration for the future.

Designing new institutions for implementing integrated disaster risk management: key elements and future directions.

PubMed

Gopalakrishnan, Chennat; Okada, Norio

2007-12-01

The goal of integrated disaster risk management is to promote an overall improvement in the quality of safety and security in a region, city or community at disaster risk. This paper presents the case for a thorough overhaul of the institutional component of integrated disaster risk management. A review of disaster management institutions in the United States indicates significant weaknesses in their ability to contribute effectively to the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Our analysis and findings identify eight key elements for the design of dynamic new disaster management institutions. Six specific approaches are suggested for incorporating the identified key elements in building new institutions that would have significant potential for enhancing the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk management. We have developed a possible blueprint for effective design and construction of efficient, sustainable and functional disaster management institutions.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates*

PubMed Central

Classen, Timothy J.; Dunn, Richard A.

2010-01-01

Objectives This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk. PMID:20645463

75 FR 69064 - Draft Toxicological Review of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... Toxicological Review of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk... of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... ``Toxicological Review of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Pest Control in the School Environment: Adopting Integrated Pest Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. Office of Pesticide Programs.

As the public becomes more aware of the health and environmental risks pesticides may pose, its interest in seeking the use of equally effective alternative pest control methods increases. School administrators and other persons who have pest control decision-making responsibilities for school buildings and grounds can use this guide to become…

Common and Specific Factors Approaches to Home-Based Treatment: I-FAST and MST

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Mo Yee; Greene, Gilbert J.; Fraser, J. Scott; Edwards, Shivani G.; Grove, David; Solovey, Andrew D.; Scott, Pamela

2013-01-01

Objectives: This study examined the treatment outcomes of integrated families and systems treatment (I-FAST), a moderated common factors approach, in reference to multisystemic therapy (MST), an established specific factor approach, for treating at risk children and adolescents and their families in an intensive community-based setting. Method:…

20180311 - Development of a Tool for Systematic Integration of Traditional and New Approach Methods for Prioritizing Chemical Lists (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple chemical regulatory bodies (US EPA, ECHA, OECD, Health Canada) are currently tasked with prioritizing chemicals for in-depth risk assessments. These prioritization efforts are driven by the fact that there are many chemicals in commerce, or in the environment for which d...

Twin Studies and Their Implications for Molecular Genetic Studies: Endophenotypes Integrate Quantitative and Molecular Genetics in ADHD Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Alexis C.; Neale, Michael C.

2010-01-01

Objective: To describe the utility of twin studies for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) research and demonstrate their potential for the identification of alternative phenotypes suitable for genomewide association, developmental risk assessment, treatment response, and intervention targets. Method: Brief descriptions of the classic…

Development of a Tool for Systematic Integration of Traditional and New Approach Methods for Prioritizing Chemical Lists

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple chemical regulatory bodies (US EPA, ECHA, OECD, Health Canada) are currently tasked with prioritizing chemicals for in-depth risk assessments. These prioritization efforts are driven by the fact that there are many chemicals in commerce, or in the environment for which d...

Strengthening the management of ESA - the Inter-Directorate Reform of Corporate and Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feustel-Büechl, Jörg; Arend, Harald; Derio, Eric; Infante, Giovanni; Kreiner, Gerhard; Phaler, Jesse; Tabbert, Michael

2007-02-01

ESA has undertaken the Inter-Directorate Reform of Corporate and Risk Management to strengthen the Agency's internal operations. The reform was completed at the end of 2006, encompassing five dedicated projects on Risk Management, Agency-Wide Controlling System, Project Plan and Integrated Project Review, General Budget Structure and Charging Policy, and Corporate Information Systems. It has contributed to improved management of the Agency's internal operations by engaging all internal stakeholders in a common objective, introducing improvements to planning and management methods, elaborating consolidated information structures and tools, contributing to enhanced transparency and accountability, and by providing qualified new policies, processes and tools.

Reconciling incongruous qualitative and quantitative findings in mixed methods research: exemplars from research with drug using populations.

PubMed

Wagner, Karla D; Davidson, Peter J; Pollini, Robin A; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Washburn, Rachel; Palinkas, Lawrence A

2012-01-01

Mixed methods research is increasingly being promoted in the health sciences as a way to gain more comprehensive understandings of how social processes and individual behaviours shape human health. Mixed methods research most commonly combines qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis strategies. Often, integrating findings from multiple methods is assumed to confirm or validate the findings from one method with the findings from another, seeking convergence or agreement between methods. Cases in which findings from different methods are congruous are generally thought of as ideal, whilst conflicting findings may, at first glance, appear problematic. However, the latter situation provides the opportunity for a process through which apparently discordant results are reconciled, potentially leading to new emergent understandings of complex social phenomena. This paper presents three case studies drawn from the authors' research on HIV risk amongst injection drug users in which mixed methods studies yielded apparently discrepant results. We use these case studies (involving injection drug users [IDUs] using a Needle/Syringe Exchange Program in Los Angeles, CA, USA; IDUs seeking to purchase needle/syringes at pharmacies in Tijuana, Mexico; and young street-based IDUs in San Francisco, CA, USA) to identify challenges associated with integrating findings from mixed methods projects, summarize lessons learned, and make recommendations for how to more successfully anticipate and manage the integration of findings. Despite the challenges inherent in reconciling apparently conflicting findings from qualitative and quantitative approaches, in keeping with others who have argued in favour of integrating mixed methods findings, we contend that such an undertaking has the potential to yield benefits that emerge only through the struggle to reconcile discrepant results and may provide a sum that is greater than the individual qualitative and quantitative parts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconciling incongruous qualitative and quantitative findings in mixed methods research: exemplars from research with drug using populations

PubMed Central

Wagner, Karla D.; Davidson, Peter J.; Pollini, Robin A.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Washburn, Rachel; Palinkas, Lawrence A.

2011-01-01

Mixed methods research is increasingly being promoted in the health sciences as a way to gain more comprehensive understandings of how social processes and individual behaviours shape human health. Mixed methods research most commonly combines qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis strategies. Often, integrating findings from multiple methods is assumed to confirm or validate the findings from one method with the findings from another, seeking convergence or agreement between methods. Cases in which findings from different methods are congruous are generally thought of as ideal, while conflicting findings may, at first glance, appear problematic. However, the latter situation provides the opportunity for a process through which apparently discordant results are reconciled, potentially leading to new emergent understandings of complex social phenomena. This paper presents three case studies drawn from the authors’ research on HIV risk among injection drug users in which mixed methods studies yielded apparently discrepant results. We use these case studies (involving injection drug users [IDUs] using a needle/syringe exchange program in Los Angeles, California, USA; IDUs seeking to purchase needle/syringes at pharmacies in Tijuana, Mexico; and young street-based IDUs in San Francisco, CA, USA) to identify challenges associated with integrating findings from mixed methods projects, summarize lessons learned, and make recommendations for how to more successfully anticipate and manage the integration of findings. Despite the challenges inherent in reconciling apparently conflicting findings from qualitative and quantitative approaches, in keeping with others who have argued in favour of integrating mixed methods findings, we contend that such an undertaking has the potential to yield benefits that emerge only through the struggle to reconcile discrepant results and may provide a sum that is greater than the individual qualitative and quantitative parts. PMID:21680168

Risk as an attribute in discrete choice experiments: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Harrison, Mark; Rigby, Dan; Vass, Caroline; Flynn, Terry; Louviere, Jordan; Payne, Katherine

2014-01-01

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are used to elicit preferences of current and future patients and healthcare professionals about how they value different aspects of healthcare. Risk is an integral part of most healthcare decisions. Despite the use of risk attributes in DCEs consistently being highlighted as an area for further research, current methods of incorporating risk attributes in DCEs have not been reviewed explicitly. This study aimed to systematically identify published healthcare DCEs that incorporated a risk attribute, summarise and appraise methods used to present and analyse risk attributes, and recommend best practice regarding including, analysing and transparently reporting the methodology supporting risk attributes in future DCEs. The Web of Science, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Econlit databases were searched on 18 April 2013 for DCEs that included a risk attribute published since 1995, and on 23 April 2013 to identify studies assessing risk communication in the general (non-DCE) health literature. Healthcare-related DCEs with a risk attribute mentioned or suggested in the title/abstract were obtained and retained in the final review if a risk attribute meeting our definition was included. Extracted data were tabulated and critically appraised to summarise the quality of reporting, and the format, presentation and interpretation of the risk attribute were summarised. This review identified 117 healthcare DCEs that incorporated at least one risk attribute. Whilst there was some evidence of good practice incorporated into the presentation of risk attributes, little evidence was found that developing methods and recommendations from other disciplines about effective methods and validation of risk communication were systematically applied to DCEs. In general, the reviewed DCE studies did not thoroughly report the methodology supporting the explanation of risk in training materials, the impact of framing risk, or exploring the validity of risk communication. The primary limitation of this review was that the methods underlying presentation, format and analysis of risk attributes could only be appraised to the extent that they were reported. Improvements in reporting and transparency of risk presentation from conception to the analysis of DCEs are needed. To define best practice, further research is needed to test how the process of communicating risk affects the way in which people value risk attributes in DCEs.

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Early Design Choices: Capture, Model, Integrate, Analyze, Simulate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.

2004-01-01

I. Designs are constructed incrementally to meet requirements and solve problems: a) Requirements types: objectives, scenarios, constraints, ilities. etc. b) Problem/issue types: risk/safety, cost/difficulty, interaction, conflict, etc. II. Capture requirements, problems and solutions: a) Collect design and analysis products and make them accessible for integration and analysis; b) Link changes in design requirements, problems and solutions; and c) Harvest design data for design models and choice structures. III. System designs are constructed by multiple groups designing interacting subsystems a) Diverse problems, choice criteria, analysis methods and point solutions. IV. Support integration and global analysis of repercussions: a) System implications of point solutions; b) Broad analysis of interactions beyond totals of mass, cost, etc.

Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

2016-04-01

In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semones, E. J.; Bahadori, A. A.; Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Flores-McLaughlin, J.

2011-01-01

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute Radiation Assessment Detector. Also, the University of Florida hybrid phantoms, which are flexible in morphometry and positioning, are being explored as alternatives to the current NASA computational phantoms.

Multi-stage methodology to detect health insurance claim fraud.

PubMed

Johnson, Marina Evrim; Nagarur, Nagen

2016-09-01

Healthcare costs in the US, as well as in other countries, increase rapidly due to demographic, economic, social, and legal changes. This increase in healthcare costs impacts both government and private health insurance systems. Fraudulent behaviors of healthcare providers and patients have become a serious burden to insurance systems by bringing unnecessary costs. Insurance companies thus develop methods to identify fraud. This paper proposes a new multistage methodology for insurance companies to detect fraud committed by providers and patients. The first three stages aim at detecting abnormalities among providers, services, and claim amounts. Stage four then integrates the information obtained in the previous three stages into an overall risk measure. Subsequently, a decision tree based method in stage five computes risk threshold values. The final decision stating whether the claim is fraudulent is made by comparing the risk value obtained in stage four with the risk threshold value from stage five. The research methodology performs well on real-world insurance data.

On methods for assessing water-resource risks and vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, Peter H.

2015-11-01

Because of the critical role that freshwater plays in maintaining ecosystem health and supporting human development through agricultural and industrial production there have been numerous efforts over the past few decades to develop indicators and indices of water vulnerability. Each of these efforts has tried to identify key factors that both offer insights into water-related risks and strategies that might be useful for reducing those risks. These kinds of assessments have serious limitations associated with data, the complexity of water challenges, and the changing nature of climatic and hydrologic variables. This new letter by Padowski et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 104014) adds to the field by broadening the kinds of measures that should be integrated into such tools, especially in the area of institutional characteristics, and analyzing them in a way that provides new insights into the similarities and differences in water risks facing different countries, but much more can and should be done with new data and methods to improve our understanding of water challenges.

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

Integration of Active and Passive Safety Technologies--A Method to Study and Estimate Field Capability.

PubMed

Hu, Jingwen; Flannagan, Carol A; Bao, Shan; McCoy, Robert W; Siasoco, Kevin M; Barbat, Saeed

2015-11-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method that uses a combination of field data analysis, naturalistic driving data analysis, and computational simulations to explore the potential injury reduction capabilities of integrating passive and active safety systems in frontal impact conditions. For the purposes of this study, the active safety system is actually a driver assist (DA) feature that has the potential to reduce delta-V prior to a crash, in frontal or other crash scenarios. A field data analysis was first conducted to estimate the delta-V distribution change based on an assumption of 20% crash avoidance resulting from a pre-crash braking DA feature. Analysis of changes in driver head location during 470 hard braking events in a naturalistic driving study found that drivers' head positions were mostly in the center position before the braking onset, while the percentage of time drivers leaning forward or backward increased significantly after the braking onset. Parametric studies with a total of 4800 MADYMO simulations showed that both delta-V and occupant pre-crash posture had pronounced effects on occupant injury risks and on the optimal restraint designs. By combining the results for the delta-V and head position distribution changes, a weighted average of injury risk reduction of 17% and 48% was predicted by the 50th percentile Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) model and human body model, respectively, with the assumption that the restraint system can adapt to the specific delta-V and pre-crash posture. This study demonstrated the potential for further reducing occupant injury risk in frontal crashes by the integration of a passive safety system with a DA feature. Future analyses considering more vehicle models, various crash conditions, and variations of occupant characteristics, such as age, gender, weight, and height, are necessary to further investigate the potential capability of integrating passive and DA or active safety systems.

An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

2015-02-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cumulative risk assessment for combined health effects from chemical and nonchemical stressors.

PubMed

Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H

2011-12-01

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks.

Cumulative Risk Assessment for Combined Health Effects From Chemical and Nonchemical Stressors

PubMed Central

Linder, Stephen H.

2011-01-01

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks. PMID:21551386

76 FR 69736 - Draft Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-09

... Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information..., ``Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is...

75 FR 50761 - Draft Toxicological Review of Dichloromethane: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-17

... Toxicological Review of Dichloromethane: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-10/003A). The draft... Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available primarily...

Geographic integration of hepatitis C virus: A global threat.

PubMed

Daw, Mohamed A; El-Bouzedi, Abdallah A; Ahmed, Mohamed O; Dau, Aghnyia A; Agnan, Mohamed M; Drah, Aisha M

2016-11-12

To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) geographic integration, evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of HCV worldwide and propose how to diminish its burden. A literature search of published articles was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE and other related databases up to December 2015. A critical data assessment and analysis regarding the epidemiological integration of HCV was carried out using the meta-analysis method. The data indicated that HCV has been integrated immensely over time and through various geographical regions worldwide. The history of HCV goes back to 1535 but between 1935 and 1965 it exhibited a rapid, exponential spread. This integration is clearly seen in the geo-epidemiology and phylogeography of HCV. HCV integration can be mirrored either as intra-continental or trans-continental. Migration, drug trafficking and HCV co-infection, together with other potential risk factors, have acted as a vehicle for this integration. Evidence shows that the geographic integration of HCV has been important in the global and regional distribution of HCV. HCV geographic integration is clearly evident and this should be reflected in the prevention and treatment of this ongoing pandemic.

Sparse models for correlative and integrative analysis of imaging and genetic data

PubMed Central

Lin, Dongdong; Cao, Hongbao; Calhoun, Vince D.

2014-01-01

The development of advanced medical imaging technologies and high-throughput genomic measurements has enhanced our ability to understand their interplay as well as their relationship with human behavior by integrating these two types of datasets. However, the high dimensionality and heterogeneity of these datasets presents a challenge to conventional statistical methods; there is a high demand for the development of both correlative and integrative analysis approaches. Here, we review our recent work on developing sparse representation based approaches to address this challenge. We show how sparse models are applied to the correlation and integration of imaging and genetic data for biomarker identification. We present examples on how these approaches are used for the detection of risk genes and classification of complex diseases such as schizophrenia. Finally, we discuss future directions on the integration of multiple imaging and genomic datasets including their interactions such as epistasis. PMID:25218561

LncSubpathway: a novel approach for identifying dysfunctional subpathways associated with risk lncRNAs by integrating lncRNA and mRNA expression profiles and pathway topologies.

PubMed

Xu, Yanjun; Li, Feng; Wu, Tan; Xu, Yingqi; Yang, Haixiu; Dong, Qun; Zheng, Meiyu; Shang, Desi; Zhang, Chunlong; Zhang, Yunpeng; Li, Xia

2017-02-28

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play important roles in various biological processes, including the development of many diseases. Pathway analysis is a valuable aid for understanding the cellular functions of these transcripts. We have developed and characterized LncSubpathway, a novel method that integrates lncRNA and protein coding gene (PCG) expression with interactome data to identify disease risk subpathways that functionally associated with risk lncRNAs. LncSubpathway identifies the most relevance regions which are related with risk lncRNA set and implicated with study conditions through simultaneously considering the dysregulation extent of lncRNAs, PCGs and their correlations. Simulation studies demonstrated that the sensitivity and false positive rates of LncSubpathway were within acceptable ranges, and that LncSubpathway could accurately identify dysregulated regions that related with disease risk lncRNAs within pathways. When LncSubpathway was applied to colorectal carcinoma and breast cancer subtype datasets, it identified cancer type- and breast cancer subtype-related meaningful subpathways. Further, analysis of its robustness and reproducibility indicated that LncSubpathway was a reliable means of identifying subpathways that functionally associated with lncRNAs. LncSubpathway is freely available at http://www.bio-bigdata.com/lncSubpathway/.

LncSubpathway: a novel approach for identifying dysfunctional subpathways associated with risk lncRNAs by integrating lncRNA and mRNA expression profiles and pathway topologies

PubMed Central

Wu, Tan; Xu, Yingqi; Yang, Haixiu; Dong, Qun; Zheng, Meiyu; Shang, Desi; Zhang, Chunlong; Zhang, Yunpeng; Li, Xia

2017-01-01

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play important roles in various biological processes, including the development of many diseases. Pathway analysis is a valuable aid for understanding the cellular functions of these transcripts. We have developed and characterized LncSubpathway, a novel method that integrates lncRNA and protein coding gene (PCG) expression with interactome data to identify disease risk subpathways that functionally associated with risk lncRNAs. LncSubpathway identifies the most relevance regions which are related with risk lncRNA set and implicated with study conditions through simultaneously considering the dysregulation extent of lncRNAs, PCGs and their correlations. Simulation studies demonstrated that the sensitivity and false positive rates of LncSubpathway were within acceptable ranges, and that LncSubpathway could accurately identify dysregulated regions that related with disease risk lncRNAs within pathways. When LncSubpathway was applied to colorectal carcinoma and breast cancer subtype datasets, it identified cancer type- and breast cancer subtype-related meaningful subpathways. Further, analysis of its robustness and reproducibility indicated that LncSubpathway was a reliable means of identifying subpathways that functionally associated with lncRNAs. LncSubpathway is freely available at http://www.bio-bigdata.com/lncSubpathway/. PMID:28152521

In vivo quantification of white matter microstructure for use in aging: a focus on two emerging techniques.

PubMed

Lamar, Melissa; Zhou, Xiaohong Joe; Charlton, Rebecca A; Dean, Douglas; Little, Deborah; Deoni, Sean C

2014-02-01

Human brain imaging has seen many advances in the quantification of white matter in vivo. For example, these advances have revealed the association between white matter damage and vascular disease as well as their impact on risk for and development of dementia and depression in an aging population. Current neuroimaging methods to quantify white matter damage provide a foundation for understanding such age-related neuropathology; however, these methods are not as adept at determining the underlying microstructural abnormalities signaling at risk tissue or driving white matter damage in the aging brain. This review will begin with a brief overview of the use of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in understanding white matter alterations in aging before focusing in more detail on select advances in both diffusion-based methods and multi-component relaxometry techniques for imaging white matter microstructural integrity within myelin sheaths and the axons they encase. Although DTI greatly extended the field of white matter interrogation, these more recent technological advances will add clarity to the underlying microstructural mechanisms that contribute to white matter damage. More specifically, the methods highlighted in this review may prove more sensitive (and specific) for determining the contribution of myelin versus axonal integrity to the aging of white matter in brain. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ensuring Privacy When Integrating Patient-Based Datasets: New Methods and Developments in Record Linkage.

PubMed

Brown, Adrian P; Ferrante, Anna M; Randall, Sean M; Boyd, James H; Semmens, James B

2017-01-01

In an era where the volume of structured and unstructured digital data has exploded, there has been an enormous growth in the creation of data about individuals that can be used for understanding and treating disease. Joining these records together at an individual level provides a complete picture of a patient's interaction with health services and allows better assessment of patient outcomes and effectiveness of treatment and services. Record linkage techniques provide an efficient and cost-effective method to bring individual records together as patient profiles. These linkage procedures bring their own challenges, especially relating to the protection of privacy. The development and implementation of record linkage systems that do not require the release of personal information can reduce the risks associated with record linkage and overcome legal barriers to data sharing. Current conceptual and experimental privacy-preserving record linkage (PPRL) models show promise in addressing data integration challenges. Enhancing and operationalizing PPRL protocols can help address the dilemma faced by some custodians between using data to improve quality of life and dealing with the ethical, legal, and administrative issues associated with protecting an individual's privacy. These methods can reduce the risk to privacy, as they do not require personally identifying information to be shared. PPRL methods can improve the delivery of record linkage services to the health and broader research community.

Ensuring Privacy When Integrating Patient-Based Datasets: New Methods and Developments in Record Linkage

PubMed Central

Brown, Adrian P.; Ferrante, Anna M.; Randall, Sean M.; Boyd, James H.; Semmens, James B.

2017-01-01

In an era where the volume of structured and unstructured digital data has exploded, there has been an enormous growth in the creation of data about individuals that can be used for understanding and treating disease. Joining these records together at an individual level provides a complete picture of a patient’s interaction with health services and allows better assessment of patient outcomes and effectiveness of treatment and services. Record linkage techniques provide an efficient and cost-effective method to bring individual records together as patient profiles. These linkage procedures bring their own challenges, especially relating to the protection of privacy. The development and implementation of record linkage systems that do not require the release of personal information can reduce the risks associated with record linkage and overcome legal barriers to data sharing. Current conceptual and experimental privacy-preserving record linkage (PPRL) models show promise in addressing data integration challenges. Enhancing and operationalizing PPRL protocols can help address the dilemma faced by some custodians between using data to improve quality of life and dealing with the ethical, legal, and administrative issues associated with protecting an individual’s privacy. These methods can reduce the risk to privacy, as they do not require personally identifying information to be shared. PPRL methods can improve the delivery of record linkage services to the health and broader research community. PMID:28303240

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, M.; Schneider, U.

2014-03-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

Engineering risk reduction in satellite programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, E. S., Jr.

1979-01-01

Methods developed in planning and executing system safety engineering programs for Lockheed satellite integration contracts are presented. These procedures establish the applicable safety design criteria, document design compliance and assess the residual risks where non-compliant design is proposed, and provide for hazard analysis of system level test, handling and launch preparations. Operations hazard analysis identifies product protection and product liability hazards prior to the preparation of operational procedures and provides safety requirements for inclusion in them. The method developed for documenting all residual hazards for the attention of program management assures an acceptable minimum level of risk prior to program deployment. The results are significant for persons responsible for managing or engineering the deployment and production of complex high cost equipment under current product liability law and cost/time constraints, have a responsibility to minimize the possibility of an accident, and should have documentation to provide a defense in a product liability suit.

A comparative study of space radiation organ doses and associated cancer risks using PHITS and HZETRN.

PubMed

Bahadori, Amir A; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Slaba, Tony C; Shavers, Mark R; Semones, Edward J; Van Baalen, Mary; Bolch, Wesley E

2013-10-21

NASA currently uses one-dimensional deterministic transport to generate values of the organ dose equivalent needed to calculate stochastic radiation risk following crew space exposures. In this study, organ absorbed doses and dose equivalents are calculated for 50th percentile male and female astronaut phantoms using both the NASA High Charge and Energy Transport Code to perform one-dimensional deterministic transport and the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport Code System to perform three-dimensional Monte Carlo transport. Two measures of radiation risk, effective dose and risk of exposure-induced death (REID) are calculated using the organ dose equivalents resulting from the two methods of radiation transport. For the space radiation environments and simplified shielding configurations considered, small differences (<8%) in the effective dose and REID are found. However, for the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) boundary condition, compensating errors are observed, indicating that comparisons between the integral measurements of complex radiation environments and code calculations can be misleading. Code-to-code benchmarks allow for the comparison of differential quantities, such as secondary particle differential fluence, to provide insight into differences observed in integral quantities for particular components of the GCR spectrum.

A comparative study of space radiation organ doses and associated cancer risks using PHITS and HZETRN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahadori, Amir A.; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Slaba, Tony C.; Shavers, Mark R.; Semones, Edward J.; Van Baalen, Mary; Bolch, Wesley E.

2013-10-01

NASA currently uses one-dimensional deterministic transport to generate values of the organ dose equivalent needed to calculate stochastic radiation risk following crew space exposures. In this study, organ absorbed doses and dose equivalents are calculated for 50th percentile male and female astronaut phantoms using both the NASA High Charge and Energy Transport Code to perform one-dimensional deterministic transport and the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport Code System to perform three-dimensional Monte Carlo transport. Two measures of radiation risk, effective dose and risk of exposure-induced death (REID) are calculated using the organ dose equivalents resulting from the two methods of radiation transport. For the space radiation environments and simplified shielding configurations considered, small differences (<8%) in the effective dose and REID are found. However, for the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) boundary condition, compensating errors are observed, indicating that comparisons between the integral measurements of complex radiation environments and code calculations can be misleading. Code-to-code benchmarks allow for the comparison of differential quantities, such as secondary particle differential fluence, to provide insight into differences observed in integral quantities for particular components of the GCR spectrum.

Effects of Outlets on Cracking Risk and Integral Stability of Super-High Arch Dams

PubMed Central

Hu, Hang

2014-01-01

In this paper, case study on outlet cracking is first conducted for the Goupitan and Xiaowan arch dams. A nonlinear FEM method is then implemented to study effects of the outlets on integral stability of the Xiluodu arch dam under two loading conditions, i.e., normal loading and overloading conditions. On the basis of the case study and the numerical modelling, the outlet cracking mechanism, risk, and corresponding reinforcement measures are discussed. Furthermore, the numerical simulation reveals that (1) under the normal loading conditions, the optimal distribution of the outlets will contribute to the tensile stress release in the local zone of the dam stream surface and decrease the outlet cracking risk during the operation period. (2) Under the overloading conditions, the cracks initiate around the outlets, then propagate along the horizontal direction, and finally coalesce with those in adjacent outlets, where the yield zone of the dam has a shape of butterfly. Throughout this study, a dam outlet cracking risk control and reinforcement principle is proposed to optimize the outlet design, select the appropriate concrete material, strengthen the temperature control during construction period, design reasonable impounding scheme, and repair the cracks according to their classification. PMID:25152907

Integrative Health Coach Training: A Model for Shifting the Paradigm Toward Patient-centricity and Meeting New National Prevention Goals

PubMed Central

Smith, Linda L.; Lake, Noelle H.; Simmons, Leigh Ann; Perlman, Adam; Wroth, Shelley

2013-01-01

Objective: To describe the evolution, training, and results of an emerging allied health profession skilled in eliciting sustainable health-related behavior change and charged with improving patient engagement. Methods: Through techniques sourced from humanistic and positive psychology, solution-focused and mindfulness-based therapies, and leadership coaching, Integrative Health Coaching (IHC) provides a mechanism to empower patients through various stages of learning and change. IHC also provides a method for the creation and implementation of forward-focused personalized health plans. Results: Clinical studies employing Duke University Integrative Medicine's model of IHC have demonstrated improvements in measures of diabetes and diabetes risk, weight management, and risk for cardiovascular disease and stroke. By supporting and enabling individuals in making major lifestyle changes for the improvement of their health, IHC carries the potential to reduce rates and morbidity of chronic disease and impact myriad aspects of healthcare. Conclusion: As a model of educational and clinical innovation aimed at patient empowerment and lifestyle modification, IHC is aligned well with the tenets and goals of recently sanctioned federal healthcare reform, specifically the creation of the first National Prevention and Health Promotion Strategy. Practice Implications: IHC may allow greater patient-centricity while targeting the lifestyle-related chronic disease that lies at the heart of the current healthcare crisis. PMID:24416674

In-hospital paediatric accidents: an integrative review of the literature.

PubMed

Da Rin Della Mora, R; Bagnasco, A; Sasso, L

2012-12-01

Paediatric hospitals can be perceived by children, parents, health professionals as 'safe' places, but accidents do occur. To review publications relating to in-hospital paediatric accidents and highlight the state-of-the-science concerning this issue especially in relation to falls, and the evolution of research addressing this issue. Integrative review of papers published before March 2011 on accidents and falls occurred in hospitalized children. Electronic databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Cochrane Library databases) and further hand searching through references were searched. The inclusion criteria were articles involving observational, quasi-experimental or experimental studies in English or Italian. Exclusion criteria were articles addressing the outcomes of falls caused by suspect violence on children. Thirteen studies in English were included. Of the 13 studies conducted between 1963 and 2010, 10 had been conducted in the last 5 years; 10 in the USA. The studies were divided into two categories: contextualization and prevention of the 'accident' or 'fall' phenomenon (10 studies), and fall risk assessment (three studies). The most frequent type of design was observational explorative/descriptive. Several areas of investigation were explored (hazardous environment, children's characteristics correlated to accidents/falls, characteristics of the accidents/falls and their outcomes, paediatric fall risk factors and risk assessment tools, fall risk prevention programmes, parents' perceptions of accident/fall risks, etc.). No comparable methods were used to investigate the contextualization and prevention of the 'accident' and 'fall' phenomena; proposed fall risk assessment tools were not evaluated for their reliability and validity. Consensus would be needed around the approach to accidents in terms of: the definition of 'accident' and 'fall'; 'fall-related injury' and respective classifications; the frequency and rate calculation methods; the tools used to assess the risk of falls; and evidence-based practice aimed at preventing them. © 2012 The Authors. International Nursing Review © 2012 International Council of Nurses.

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Integrating HIV and substance use services: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Haldane, Victoria; Cervero-Liceras, Francisco; Chuah, Fiona LH; Ong, Suan Ee; Murphy, Georgina; Sigfrid, Louise; Watt, Nicola; Balabanova, Dina; Hogarth, Sue; Maimaris, Will; Buse, Kent; Piot, Peter; McKee, Martin; Perel, Pablo; Legido-Quigley, Helena

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: Substance use is an important risk factor for HIV, with both concentrated in certain vulnerable and marginalized populations. Although their management differs, there may be opportunities to integrate services for substance use and HIV. In this paper we systematically review evidence from studies that sought to integrate care for people living with HIV and substance use problems. Methods: Studies were included if they evaluated service integration for substance use and HIV. We searched multiple databases from inception until October 2015. Articles were screened independently by two reviewers and assessed for risk of bias. Results and discussion: 11,057 records were identified, with 7616 after removal of duplicates. After screening titles and abstracts, 51 met the inclusion criteria. Integration models were categorized by location (HIV, substance use and other facilities), level of integration from mirco (integrated care delivered to individuals) to macro (system level integrations) and degree of integration from least (screening and counselling only) to most (care for HIV, substance use and/or other illnesses at the same facility). Most reported descriptive or cohort studies; in four randomized control trials integrated activities improved patient outcomes. There is potential for integrating services at all facility types, including mobile health services. While services offering screening only can achieve synergies, there are benefits from delivering integrated treatment for HIV and substance use, including ease of referral to other mental health and social services. Conclusions: Our review used a wide range of databases and conference archives to increase representation of papers from low- and middle-income countries. Limitations include the overrepresentation of studies from the United States, and the descriptive nature of the majority of papers. The evidence reviewed shows that greater integration offers important benefits in both patient and service outcomes but further research and outcome reporting is needed to better understand innovative and holistic care models at the complex intersection of substance use and HIV services. PMID:28692211

Application of probabilistic fiber-tracking method of MR imaging to measure impact of cranial irradiation on structural brain connectivity in children treated for medulloblastoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, Elizabeth C.; Reddick, Wilburn E.; Glass, John O.; Hyun, Jung Won; Ji, Qing; Li, Yimei; Gajjar, Amar

2016-03-01

We applied a modified probabilistic fiber-tracking method for the extraction of fiber pathways to quantify decreased white matter integrity as a surrogate of structural loss in connectivity due to cranial radiation therapy (CRT) as treatment for pediatric medulloblastoma. Thirty subjects were examined (n=8 average-risk, n=22 high-risk) and the groups did not differ significantly in age at examination. The pathway analysis created a structural connectome focused on sub-networks within the central executive network (CEN) for comparison between baseline and post-CRT scans and for comparison between standard and high dose CRT. A paired-wise comparison of the connectivity between baseline and post-CRT scans showed the irradiation did have a significant detrimental impact on white matter integrity (decreased fractional anisotropy (FA) and decreased axial diffusivity (AX)) in most of the CEN sub-networks. Group comparisons of the change in the connectivity revealed that patients receiving high dose CRT experienced significant AX decreases in all sub-networks while the patients receiving standard dose CRT had relatively stable AX measures across time. This study on pediatric patients with medulloblastoma demonstrated the utility of this method to identify specific sub-networks within the developing brain affected by CRT.

The Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment Project: A New Way of Looking at Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unks, Ruth A.; Thor, Linda

2008-01-01

This article reviews the Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment (MIRA) project and discusses its challenges and successes. Strategies and resources are offered for assisting community college administrators, faculty, and staff to successfully implement enterprise risk management at their institutions.

HIV Risk and Protection among Gay Male Couples: The Role of Gay Community Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fergus, Stevenson; Lewis, Megan A.; Darbes, Lynae A.; Butterfield, Rita M.

2005-01-01

This study examined the association between different types of integration in the gay community and HIV risk among gay male couples. Previous research linking gay community integration and involvement among couples to HIV risk has been equivocal. Each partner in 59 gay couples completed a separate anonymous questionnaire that assessed two types of…

Having a Go: Looking at Teachers' Experience of Risk-Taking in Technology Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Sarah K.; Gigliotti, Amanda

2016-01-01

Risk is an integral part of change. Technology-related change in teachers' practice is guided by confidence engaging in and beliefs about integration. However, it is also affected by how teachers feel about taking risks, experimenting and change. This paper presents a theoretical framework of affect and emotion to understand how teachers…

78 FR 26029 - Toxicological Review of Methanol (Non-Cancer): In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-03

... of Methanol (Non-Cancer): In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-11/001Ba), which will be posted on NCEA's Web site... Review of Methanol (Non-Cancer): In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information...

Passive sampling methods for contaminated sediments: Risk assessment and management

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Marc S; Chapman, Peter M; Allan, Ian J; Anderson, Kim A; Apitz, Sabine E; Beegan, Chris; Bridges, Todd S; Brown, Steve S; Cargill, John G; McCulloch, Megan C; Menzie, Charles A; Shine, James P; Parkerton, Thomas F

2014-01-01

This paper details how activity-based passive sampling methods (PSMs), which provide information on bioavailability in terms of freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree), can be used to better inform risk management decision making at multiple points in the process of assessing and managing contaminated sediment sites. PSMs can increase certainty in site investigation and management, because Cfree is a better predictor of bioavailability than total bulk sediment concentration (Ctotal) for 4 key endpoints included in conceptual site models (benthic organism toxicity, bioaccumulation, sediment flux, and water column exposures). The use of passive sampling devices (PSDs) presents challenges with respect to representative sampling for estimating average concentrations and other metrics relevant for exposure and risk assessment. These challenges can be addressed by designing studies that account for sources of variation associated with PSMs and considering appropriate spatial scales to meet study objectives. Possible applications of PSMs include: quantifying spatial and temporal trends in bioavailable contaminants, identifying and evaluating contaminant source contributions, calibrating site-specific models, and, improving weight-of-evidence based decision frameworks. PSM data can be used to assist in delineating sediment management zones based on likelihood of exposure effects, monitor remedy effectiveness, and, evaluate risk reduction after sediment treatment, disposal, or beneficial reuse after management actions. Examples are provided illustrating why PSMs and freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree) should be incorporated into contaminated sediment investigations and study designs to better focus on and understand contaminant bioavailability, more accurately estimate exposure to sediment-associated contaminants, and better inform risk management decisions. Research and communication needs for encouraging broader use are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2014;10:224–236. © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. PMID:24343931

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP in 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance

PubMed Central

Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-jian; Landén, Mikael; Bergen, Sarah E.; Hultman, Christina M.; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Wen; Yao, Yong-Gang; Zhang, Chen; Liu, Jiewei; Mattheisen, Manuel; Cichon, Sven; Mühleisen, Thomas W.; Degenhardt, Franziska A.; Nöthen, Markus M.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Maria; Li, Hao; Fuller, Chris K.; Chen, Chunhui; Dong, Qi; Chen, Chuansheng; Jamain, Stéphane; Leboyer, Marion; Bellivier, Frank; Etain, Bruno; Kahn, Jean-Pierre; Henry, Chantal; Preisig, Martin; Kutalik, Zoltán; Castelao, Enrique; Wright, Adam; Mitchell, Philip B.; Fullerton, Janice M.; Schofield, Peter R.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Medland, Sarah E.; Gordon, Scott D.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Rietschel, Marcella; Liu, Chunyu; Kleinman, Joel E.; Hyde, Thomas M.; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Su, Bing

2016-01-01

Summary Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for BPD among the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain. Aims We sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on BPD risk by combining data from both BPD genome-wide association study (GWAS) and brain eQTL. Method To detect single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with BPD, we jointly analyzed data from a BPD GWAS (7,481 cases and 9,250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (N=5,775) and cognitive performance (N=342) among healthy subjects. Results Integrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 in 20q11.22 and BPD (Log Bayes Factor=5.48; BPD p-val=5.85×10−5). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and BPD susceptibility (p-val=3.54×10−8). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy subjects. Conclusions Our findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for BPD, highlighting the informativeness of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex diseases such as BPD. PMID:26338991

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

2010-08-01

Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruno, Michael

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. Methods: A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. Results: A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele (panel) into account. Discussion and Conclusion: The first two articles of this series on contract design have shown that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic. Healthcare reimbursement contracts are incomplete contracts with a high degree of uncertainty. In incomplete contracts specific contractual regulations are not made for any eventuality. For this reason it is important that the parties agree on the prevention of endogenous risks (asymmetric information after the conclusion of the contract) and on the procedure in the case of unforeseen circumstances (the risks of random, parameter risk and change risks to the healthcare program). PMID:29588640

Validity of Self-reported Sexual Behavior Among Adolescents: Where Do We Go from Here?

PubMed

DiClemente, Ralph J

2016-01-01

Adolescents have high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Adolescents consuming alcohol and using drugs have markedly greater HIV/STI risk and are a priority population for intervention. Accurate measurement of sexual risk behavior is critical for understanding individual's risk for HIV/STI, transmission dynamics of HIV/STI, and evaluating the efficacy of interventions designed reduce HIV/STI risk. However, significant challenges to accurately measuring adolescents' self-reported sexual behavior are well-documented. Recent advances in microbiology, such as the use of less invasive specimen collection for DNA assays, can assist researchers in more accurately measuring adolescents' sexual risk behavior. However, the majority of studies of adolescents' sexual risk rely solely on self-reported behavior; therefore, methods to improve the validity of adolescents' self-reported sexual behavior are needed. In addition, integrating biologic measures to complement self-reported measures are recommended, when appropriate and feasible.

Pesticide Risk Indicators: Unidentified Inert Ingredients Compromise Their Integrity and Utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surgan, Michael; Condon, Madison; Cox, Caroline

2010-04-01

Pesticide Risk Indicators (PRIs) are widely used to evaluate and compare the potential health and environmental risks of pesticide use and to guide pest control policies and practices. They are applied to agricultural, landscape and structural pest management by governmental agencies, private institutions and individuals. PRIs typically assess only the potential risks associated with the active ingredients because, with few exceptions, pesticide manufacturers disclose only the identity of the active ingredients which generally comprise only a minor portion of pesticide products. We show that when inert ingredients are identified and assessed by the same process as the active ingredient, the product specific risk can be much greater than that calculated for the active ingredient alone. To maintain transparency in risk assessment, all those who develop and apply PRIs or make decisions based on their output, should clearly disclose and discuss the limitations of the method.

Integrating Monitoring and Genetic Methods To Infer Historical Risks of PCBs and DDE to Common and Roseate Terns Nesting Near the New Bedford Harbor Superfund Site (Massachusetts, USA)

EPA Science Inventory

Common and roseate terns are migratory piscivorous seabirds with major breeding colonies within feeding range of thepolychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-contaminated New Bedford Harbor (NBH, MA, USA) Superfund site. Our longitudinal study shows that before PCB discharges into NBH cease...

Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

PubMed Central

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

2006-06-01

An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The formal model generates only "snap shots" and considers neither the socio-cultural nor the historical context of risk perception, since it is a highly individualistic and non-contextual approach.

An Overview of Pest Species of Bactrocera Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) and the Integration of Biopesticides with Other Biological Approaches for Their Management with a Focus on the Pacific Region

PubMed Central

Vargas, Roger I.; Piñero, Jaime C.; Leblanc, Luc

2015-01-01

Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are among the most economically important pest species in the world, attacking a wide range of fruits and fleshy vegetables throughout tropical and sub-tropical areas. These species are such devastating crop pests that major control and eradication programs have been developed in various parts of the world to combat them. The array of control methods includes insecticide sprays to foliage and soil, bait-sprays, male annihilation techniques, releases of sterilized flies and parasitoids, and cultural controls. During the twenty first century there has been a trend to move away from control with organophosphate insecticides (e.g., malathion, diazinon, and naled) and towards reduced risk insecticide treatments. In this article we present an overview of 73 pest species in the genus Bactrocera, examine recent developments of reduced risk technologies for their control and explore Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Programs that integrate multiple components to manage these pests in tropical and sub-tropical areas. PMID:26463186

[Effects of an Integrated Internet Addiction Prevention Program on Elementary Students' Self-regulation and Internet Addiction].

PubMed

Mun, So Youn; Lee, Byoung Sook

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated internet addiction prevention program and test its effects on the self-regulation and internet addiction of elementary students who are at risk for internet addiction. A quasi-experimental study with a nonequivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used. Participants were assigned to the experimental group (n=28) or control group (n=28). Contents of the program developed in this study included provision of information about internet addiction, interventions for empowerment and methods of behavioral modification. A pre-test and two post-tests were done to identify the effects of the program and their continuity. Effects were testified using Repeated measures ANOVA, simple effect analysis, and Time Contrast. The self-regulation of the experimental group after the program was significantly higher than the control group. The score for internet addiction self-diagnosis and the internet use time in the experimental group were significantly lower than the control group. The effects of the integrated internet addiction prevention program for preventing internet addiction in elementary students at risk for internet addiction were validated.

Integration of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus into Cellular Cancer-Related Genes in Head and Neck Cancer Cell Lines

PubMed Central

Walline, Heather M; Komarck, Christine M; McHugh, Jonathan B; Tang, Alice L; Owen, John H; Teh, Bin T; McKean, Erin; Glover, Thomas; Graham, Martin P; Prince, Mark E; Chepeha, Douglas B; Chinn, Steven B; Ferris, Robert L; Gollin, Susanne M; Hoffmann, Thomas K; Bier, Henning; Brakenhoff, Ruud; Bradford, Carol R; Carey, Thomas E

2017-01-01

Background HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer is generally associated with excellent response to therapy, but some HPV-positive tumors progress despite aggressive therapy. This study evaluates viral oncogene expression and viral integration sites in HPV16 and HPV18-positive squamous carcinoma cell lines. Methods E6-E7 alternate transcripts were assessed by RT-PCR. Detection of integrated papillomavirus sequences (DIPS-PCR) and sequencing identified viral insertion sites and affected host genes. Cellular gene expression was assessed across viral integration sites. Results All HPV-positive cell lines expressed alternate HPVE6/E7 splicing indicative of active viral oncogenesis. HPV integration occurred within cancer-related genes TP63, DCC, JAK1, TERT, ATR, ETV6, PGR, PTPRN2, and TMEM237 in 8 HNSCC lines but UM-SCC-105 and UM-GCC-1 had only intergenic integration. Conclusions HPV integration into cancer-related genes occurred in 7/9 HPV-positive cell lines and of these six were from tumors that progressed. HPV integration into cancer-related genes may be a secondary carcinogenic driver in HPV-driven tumors. PMID:28236344

The Integrated Skin Exam film: an educational intervention to promote early detection of melanoma by medical students.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Wang, Joyce; Reddy, Shalini B; Powers, Jennifer; Jacob, Reza; Powers, Michael; Biello, Katie; Cayce, Rachael; Savory, Stephanie; Belazarian, Leah; Domingues, Erik; Korzenko, Adam; Wilson, Lindsay; Grant-Kels, Jane M; George, Paul; Robinson-Bostom, Leslie; Trotter, Shannon C; Geller, Alan C

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the skin cancer examination (SCE) and its practice remain relevant competency gaps among medical students. We elaborate on a method of SCE known as the Integrated Skin Exam and discuss the development of an instructional film that illustrates its principles. We assess the tool's effect on knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions related to the SCE. Second-year students among 8 randomized schools viewed the film and completed pre-post questionnaires. After viewing The Integrated Skin Exam film, students demonstrated improved melanoma knowledge, including identification of high-risk demographic groups (61% vs 42.9%, P < .001), high-risk anatomic sites in women (88.6% vs 46.5%, P < .001) and men (92.1% vs 34.8%, P < .001), and the ABCDEs of melanoma (98.4% vs 91.2%, P < .001). Students demonstrated increased confidence in the SCE (66.93% vs 16.40%, P < .001) and augmented intentions to practice it (99.05% vs 13.9%, P < .001). A greater proportion (70.4% vs 41.9%, P < .001) of students thought less than 3 minutes were required to integrate SCE into the routine examination. Longitudinal impact of the film was not assessed. The Integrated Skin Exam film introduces an integrated approach to the SCE that addresses knowledge gaps, mitigates perceived barriers, and augments intention related to practice of the SCE. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

New integrated and multiscale decision-aiding framework in a context of imperfect information: application to the assessment of torrent checkdams' effectiveness.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

Mountain natural phenomena (e.g. torrential floods) put people and buildings at risk. Civil engineering protection works such as torrent check-dams are designed to mitigate those natural risks. Protection works act on both causes and effects of phenomena to reduce consequences and therefore risks. For instance, check-dams control sediment production and liquid/solid flow of torrential floods: several series of dams are located in the headwaters of a watershed, each having specific functions. All those works are damaged by time passing and flood impacts. Effectiveness assessment is needed to define, compare or choose strategies for investment and maintenance which are essential issues in risk management process. Decision support tools are expected to analyze at different scales both their technical effectiveness (related to their structural state and functional effects on phenomena such as stopping, braking, guiding, etc.) and their economic efficiency through comparison between benefits and costs. Several methods, often based on expert knowledge, have already been developed to care about decision under risk. But uncertainty has also to be considered, since decisions are indeed often taken in a context of lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena, heterogeneity of available information and, finally, reliability of sources. First methods derived from classical industrial contexts, such as dependability analysis, are used to formalize expert knowledge used for decision-making. After having defined the concept of effectiveness, dependability analysis are used to identify decision contexts and problems: criteria and indicators are identified in relation with structural or functional features. Then, innovative and multi-scales multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDMs) and frameworks are proposed to help assessing protection works effectiveness. They combine classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories. Those methods allow to make decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context: COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of torrent check-dams' effectiveness assessment. Those methods are then improved for a better knowledge representation and final decision. Enhanced methods are then associated together. Finally, individual problems and associated methods are integrated in a generic methodology to move from torrential protective single measure effectiveness assessment to complete protection systems at watershed scale.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

A Prorating Method for Estimating MMPI-2-RF Scores From MMPI Responses: Examination of Score Fidelity and Illustration of Empirical Utility in the PERSEREC Police Integrity Study Sample.

PubMed

Tarescavage, Anthony M; Corey, David M; Ben-Porath, Yossef S

2016-04-01

The purpose of the current study was to identify Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) correlates of police officer integrity violations and other problem behaviors in an archival database with original MMPI item responses and collateral information regarding integrity violations obtained for 417 male officers. In Study 1, we estimated MMPI-2-RF scores from the MMPI item pool (which includes approximately 80% of the MMPI-2-RF items) in a normative sample, a psychiatric inpatient sample, and a police officer sample, and conducted analyses that demonstrated the comparability of estimated and full scale scores for 41 of the 51 MMPI-2-RF scales. In Study 2, we correlated estimated MMPI-2-RF scores with information about subsequent integrity violations and problem behaviors from the integrity violation data set. Several meaningful associations were obtained, predominately with scales from the emotional, thought, and behavioral dysfunction domains of the MMPI-2-RF. Application of a correction for range restriction yielded substantially improved validity estimates. Finally, we calculated relative risk ratios for the statistically significant findings using cutoffs lower than 65T, which is traditionally used to identify clinically significant elevations, and found several meaningful relative risk ratios. © The Author(s) 2015.

An Integrated Learning System: Impact on At-Risk Students' Ninth Grade TAKS Mathematics Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Tina D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of an integrated learning system on students who were considered at-risk of academic failure on the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) mathematics assessment. Voyager Math (VMath), an integrated learning system had been implemented to address the needs of students at-risk of…

Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

2017-08-01

Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Risk factors for the spine: nursing assessment and care].

PubMed

Bringuente, M E; de Castro, I S; de Jesus, J C; Luciano, L dos S

1997-01-01

The present work aimed at studying risk factor that affect people with back pain, identifying them and implementing an intervention proposal of a health education program based on self-care teaching, existential humanist philosophical projects and stress equalization approach line, skeletal-muscle reintegration activities, basic techniques on stress equalization and massage. It has been developed for a population of 42 (forty-two) clients. Two instruments which integrate nursing consultation protocol have been used in data collection. The results showed the existence of associated risk factors which are changeable according to health education programs. The assessment process has contributed for therapeutic measures focus, using non-conventional care methods for this approach providing an improvement to these clients life quality.

Socioeconomic indicators of heat-related health risk supplemented with remotely sensed data

PubMed Central

Johnson, Daniel P; Wilson, Jeffrey S; Luber, George C

2009-01-01

Background Extreme heat events are the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. The current system of alert for extreme heat events does not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature derived from thermal remote sensing data. Results Comparison of logistic regression models indicates that supplementing known sociodemographic risk factors with remote sensing estimates of land surface temperature improves the delineation of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat events. Conclusion Thermal remote sensing data can be utilized to improve understanding of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat. The refinement of current risk assessment systems could increase the likelihood of survival during extreme heat events and assist emergency personnel in the delivery of vital resources during such disasters. PMID:19835578

Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies

PubMed Central

Gagnon, J.; Lévesque, E.; Borduas, F.; Chiquette, J.; Diorio, C.; Duchesne, N.; Dumais, M.; Eloy, L.; Foulkes, W.; Gervais, N.; Lalonde, L.; L’Espérance, B.; Meterissian, S.; Provencher, L.; Richard, J.; Savard, C.; Trop, I.; Wong, N.; Knoppers, B.M.; Simard, J.

2016-01-01

In recent years, risk stratification has sparked interest as an innovative approach to disease screening and prevention. The approach effectively personalizes individual risk, opening the way to screening and prevention interventions that are adapted to subpopulations. The international perspective project, which is developing risk stratification for breast cancer, aims to support the integration of its screening approach into clinical practice through comprehensive tool-building. Policies and guidelines for risk stratification—unlike those for population screening programs, which are currently well regulated—are still under development. Indeed, the development of guidelines for risk stratification reflects the translational aspects of perspective. Here, we describe the risk stratification process that was devised in the context of perspective, and we then explain the consensus-based method used to develop recommendations for breast cancer screening and prevention in a risk-stratification approach. Lastly, we discuss how the recommendations might affect current screening policies. PMID:28050152

Database assessment of CMIP5 and hydrological models to determine flood risk areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limlahapun, Ponthip; Fukui, Hiromichi

2016-11-01

Solutions for water-related disasters may not be solved with a single scientific method. Based on this premise, we involved logic conceptions, associate sequential result amongst models, and database applications attempting to analyse historical and future scenarios in the context of flooding. The three main models used in this study are (1) the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to derive precipitation; (2) the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) to extract amount of discharge; and (3) the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) model to generate inundated areas. This research notably focused on integrating data regardless of system-design complexity, and database approaches are significantly flexible, manageable, and well-supported for system data transfer, which makes them suitable for monitoring a flood. The outcome of flood map together with real-time stream data can help local communities identify areas at-risk of flooding in advance.

Patients, practices, and relationships: challenges and lessons learned from the Kentucky Ambulatory Network (KAN) CaRESS clinical trial.

PubMed

Love, Margaret M; Pearce, Kevin A; Williamson, M Ann; Barron, Mary A; Shelton, Brent J

2006-01-01

The Cardiovascular Risk Education and Social Support (CaRESS) study is a randomized controlled trial that evaluates a social support intervention toward reducing cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetic patients. It involves multiple community-based practice sites from the Kentucky Ambulatory Network (KAN), which is a regional primary care practice-based research network (PBRN). CaRESS also implements multiple modes of data collection. The purpose of this methods article is to share lessons learned that might be useful to others developing or implementing complex studies that consent patients in PBRNs. Key points include building long-term relationships with the clinicians, adaptability when integrating into practice sites, adequate funding to support consistent data management and statistical support during all phases of the study, and creativity and perseverance for recruiting patients and practices while maintaining the integrity of the protocol.

Innovative computational tools for reducing exploration risk through integration of water-rock interactions and magnetotelluric surveys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Joseph

2017-04-20

Mapping permeability distributions in geothermal reservoirs is essential for reducing the cost of geothermal development. To avoid the cost and sampling bias of measuring permeability directly through drilling, we require remote methods of imaging permeability such as geophysics. Electrical resistivity (or its inverse, conductivity) is one of the most sensitive geophysical properties known to reflect long range fluid interconnection and thus the likelihood of permeability. Perhaps the most widely applied geophysical methods for imaging subsurface resistivity is magnetotellurics (MT) due to its relatively great penetration depths. A primary goal of this project is to confirm through ground truthing at existingmore » geothermal systems that MT resistivity structure interpreted integratively is capable of revealing permeable fluid pathways into geothermal systems.« less

Combining polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS) with toxicity testing to evaluate pesticide mixture effects on natural phototrophic biofilms.

PubMed

Pesce, Stéphane; Morin, Soizic; Lissalde, Sophie; Montuelle, Bernard; Mazzella, Nicolas

2011-03-01

Polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS) are valuable tools in passive sampling methods for monitoring polar organic pesticides in freshwaters. Pesticides extracted from the environment using such methods can be used to toxicity tests. This study evaluated the acute effects of POCIS extracts on natural phototrophic biofilm communities. Our results demonstrate an effect of POCIS pesticide mixtures on chlorophyll a fluorescence, photosynthetic efficiency and community structure. Nevertheless, the range of biofilm responses differs according to origin of the biofilms tested, revealing spatial variations in the sensitivity of natural communities in the studied stream. Combining passive sampler extracts with community-level toxicity tests offers promising perspectives for ecological risk assessment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevention of MSD by means of ergonomic risk assessment (tools) in all phases of the vehicle development process.

PubMed

Karlheinz, Schaub; Michaela, Kugler; Max, Bierwirth; Andrea, Sinn-Behrendt; Ralph, Bruder

2012-01-01

In industrialized countries musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) play an import role and are often responsible for almost one third of the total sick leave. The changes in the demographic profiles, i.e. aging work forces might even worsen this situation in the future. For a highly productive and sustainable use of human resources in production systems, ergonomics offers high potentials. In the recent years the authors have developed several ergonomic risk assessment tools, especially for the use in automotive industries. These methods may be used during the planning phases in the Tech Centers as well as during the production phase at shop floor level. The tools might also be used for a standardized communication in between the Tech Center and the plants to improve the effects of "lessons learned" for the design and layout of workstations and processes and the optimization of vehicle components. This paper describes suitable risk assessment tools as well as the integration of these tools into the vehicle development process. It introduces a comprehensive management approach for the integration of ergonomics into the management of production systems.

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

2017-09-01

Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

ASSESSMENT OF DYNAMIC PRA TECHNIQUES WITH INDUSTRY AVERAGE COMPONENT PERFORMANCE DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yadav, Vaibhav; Agarwal, Vivek; Gribok, Andrei V.

In the nuclear industry, risk monitors are intended to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration. Current risk monitors are limited in that they do not properly take into account the deteriorating states of plant equipment, which are unit-specific. Current approaches to computing risk monitors use probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, but the assessment is typically a snapshot in time. Living PRA models attempt to address limitations of traditional PRA models in a limited sense by including temporary changes in plant and system configurations. However, information on plant component health are not considered. Thismore » often leaves risk monitors using living PRA models incapable of conducting evaluations with dynamic degradation scenarios evolving over time. There is a need to develop enabling approaches to solidify risk monitors to provide time and condition-dependent risk by integrating traditional PRA models with condition monitoring and prognostic techniques. This paper presents estimation of system risk evolution over time by integrating plant risk monitoring data with dynamic PRA methods incorporating aging and degradation. Several online, non-destructive approaches have been developed for diagnosing plant component conditions in nuclear industry, i.e., condition indication index, using vibration analysis, current signatures, and operational history [1]. In this work the component performance measures at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) [2] are incorporated within the various dynamic PRA methodologies [3] to provide better estimates of probability of failures. Aging and degradation is modeled within the Level-1 PRA framework and is applied to several failure modes of pumps and can be extended to a range of components, viz. valves, generators, batteries, and pipes.« less

Rethinking the Clinically Based Thresholds of TransCelerate BioPharma for Risk-Based Monitoring.

PubMed

Zink, Richard C; Dmitrienko, Anastasia; Dmitrienko, Alex

2018-01-01

The quality of data from clinical trials has received a great deal of attention in recent years. Of central importance is the need to protect the well-being of study participants and maintain the integrity of final analysis results. However, traditional approaches to assess data quality have come under increased scrutiny as providing little benefit for the substantial cost. Numerous regulatory guidance documents and industry position papers have described risk-based approaches to identify quality and safety issues. In particular, the position paper of TransCelerate BioPharma recommends defining risk thresholds to assess safety and quality risks based on past clinical experience. This exercise can be extremely time-consuming, and the resulting thresholds may only be relevant to a particular therapeutic area, patient or clinical site population. In addition, predefined thresholds cannot account for safety or quality issues where the underlying rate of observing a particular problem may change over the course of a clinical trial, and often do not consider varying patient exposure. In this manuscript, we appropriate rules commonly utilized for funnel plots to define a traffic-light system for risk indicators based on statistical criteria that consider the duration of patient follow-up. Further, we describe how these methods can be adapted to assess changing risk over time. Finally, we illustrate numerous graphical approaches to summarize and communicate risk, and discuss hybrid clinical-statistical approaches to allow for the assessment of risk at sites with low patient enrollment. We illustrate the aforementioned methodologies for a clinical trial in patients with schizophrenia. Funnel plots are a flexible graphical technique that can form the basis for a risk-based strategy to assess data integrity, while considering site sample size, patient exposure, and changing risk across time.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Contract Design: The problem of information asymmetry

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Integrated care systems are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The research question in this article focuses on how healthcare contracts can look like and which possible problems arise in designing such contracts. In this a special interest is placed on information asymmetries. Methods: A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the first in a row of three that all contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. Starting with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, part 2 focusses on financial options and risks and part 3 finally concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. Results: Healthcare contracting between providers and payers will have a major impact on the overall design of future healthcare systems. If Integrated care systems or any other similar concept of care delivery are to be contracted directly by payers to manage the continuum of care the costs of market utilisation play an essential role. Transaction costs also arise in the course of the negotiation and implementation of contracts. These costs are the reason why it is generally not possible to conclude perfect (complete) contracts. Problems with asymmetric distribution of information can relate to the situation before a contract is concluded (adverse selection) and after conclusion of a contract (moral hazard). Discussion and Conclusions: Information asymmetries are seen as a major obstacle to the efficient operation of integrated care programmes. Coordination and motivation problems cannot be solved at no-costs. The presented problems in the design of selective individual contracts represent a necessary but not a sufficient condition for further government intervention. A state or political failures have to be assumed continuously. PMID:29588639

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-07-27

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

A simple rapid approach using coupled multivariate statistical methods, GIS and trajectory models to delineate areas of common oil spill risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillen, George; Rainey, Gail; Morin, Michelle

2004-04-01

Currently, the Minerals Management Service uses the Oil Spill Risk Analysis model (OSRAM) to predict the movement of potential oil spills greater than 1000 bbl originating from offshore oil and gas facilities. OSRAM generates oil spill trajectories using meteorological and hydrological data input from either actual physical measurements or estimates generated from other hydrological models. OSRAM and many other models produce output matrices of average, maximum and minimum contact probabilities to specific landfall or target segments (columns) from oil spills at specific points (rows). Analysts and managers are often interested in identifying geographic areas or groups of facilities that pose similar risks to specific targets or groups of targets if a spill occurred. Unfortunately, due to the potentially large matrix generated by many spill models, this question is difficult to answer without the use of data reduction and visualization methods. In our study we utilized a multivariate statistical method called cluster analysis to group areas of similar risk based on potential distribution of landfall target trajectory probabilities. We also utilized ArcView™ GIS to display spill launch point groupings. The combination of GIS and multivariate statistical techniques in the post-processing of trajectory model output is a powerful tool for identifying and delineating areas of similar risk from multiple spill sources. We strongly encourage modelers, statistical and GIS software programmers to closely collaborate to produce a more seamless integration of these technologies and approaches to analyzing data. They are complimentary methods that strengthen the overall assessment of spill risks.

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks

PubMed Central

Liyanage, H.; Liaw, S-T.; Kuziemsky, C.; Mold, F.; Krause, P.; Fleming, D.; Jones, S.

2014-01-01

Summary Background Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. Objective To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. Method: We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. Results We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowd-sourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the “internet of things”, and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Conclusions Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance. PMID:25123718

Medical image computing for computer-supported diagnostics and therapy. Advances and perspectives.

PubMed

Handels, H; Ehrhardt, J

2009-01-01

Medical image computing has become one of the most challenging fields in medical informatics. In image-based diagnostics of the future software assistance will become more and more important, and image analysis systems integrating advanced image computing methods are needed to extract quantitative image parameters to characterize the state and changes of image structures of interest (e.g. tumors, organs, vessels, bones etc.) in a reproducible and objective way. Furthermore, in the field of software-assisted and navigated surgery medical image computing methods play a key role and have opened up new perspectives for patient treatment. However, further developments are needed to increase the grade of automation, accuracy, reproducibility and robustness. Moreover, the systems developed have to be integrated into the clinical workflow. For the development of advanced image computing systems methods of different scientific fields have to be adapted and used in combination. The principal methodologies in medical image computing are the following: image segmentation, image registration, image analysis for quantification and computer assisted image interpretation, modeling and simulation as well as visualization and virtual reality. Especially, model-based image computing techniques open up new perspectives for prediction of organ changes and risk analysis of patients and will gain importance in diagnostic and therapy of the future. From a methodical point of view the authors identify the following future trends and perspectives in medical image computing: development of optimized application-specific systems and integration into the clinical workflow, enhanced computational models for image analysis and virtual reality training systems, integration of different image computing methods, further integration of multimodal image data and biosignals and advanced methods for 4D medical image computing. The development of image analysis systems for diagnostic support or operation planning is a complex interdisciplinary process. Image computing methods enable new insights into the patient's image data and have the future potential to improve medical diagnostics and patient treatment.

An Opportunity for Convergence? Understanding the Prevalence and Risk of Distracted Driving Through the Use of Crash Databases, Crash Investigations, and Other Approaches

PubMed Central

Angell, Linda S.

2014-01-01

A variety of methodologies for understanding the prevalence of distracted driving, its risk, and other aspects of driver secondary activity, have been used in the last 15 years. Although the current trend is toward naturalistic driving studies, each methodology contributes certain elements to a better understanding that could emerge from a convergence of these efforts. However, if differing methods are to contribute to a common and robust understanding of driver distraction, it is critical to understand the strengths and limitations of each method. This paper reviews several of the non-naturalistic methods. It suggests that “convergence science” – a more concerted and rigorous effort to bring different approaches together into an integrative whole – may offer benefits for identification and definition of issues and countermeasure development to improve driving safety. PMID:24776226

Reducing the risk of contamination of sterile parenteral products via ready-to-use closure components.

PubMed

Curry, Wayne; Conway, Samuel; Goodfield, Clara; Miller, Kimberly; Mueller, Ronald L; Polini, Eugene

2010-12-01

The preparation of sterile parenteral products requires careful control of all ingredients, materials, and processes to ensure the final product has the identity and strength, and meets the quality and purity characteristics that it purports to possess. Contamination affecting these critical properties of parenteral products can occur in many ways and from many sources. The use of closures supplied by manufacturers in a ready-to-use state can be an effective method for reducing the risk of contamination and improving the quality of the drug product. This article will address contamination attributable to elastomeric container closure components and the regulatory requirements associated with container closure systems. Possible contaminants, including microorganisms, endotoxins, and chemicals, along with the methods by which these contaminants can enter the product will be reviewed. Such methods include inappropriate material selection, improper closure preparation processes, compromised container closure integrity, degradation of closures, and leaching of compounds from the closures.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

Integrating human and ecological risk assessment: application to the cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom problem.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Munns, Wayne R

2008-01-01

Environmental and public health policy continues to evolve in response to new and complex social, economic and environmental drivers. Globalization and centralization of commerce, evolving patterns of land use (e.g., urbanization, deforestation), and technological advances in such areas as manufacturing and development of genetically modified foods have created new and complex classes of stressors and risks (e.g., climate change, emergent and opportunist disease, sprawl, genomic change). In recognition of these changes, environmental risk assessment and its use are changing from stressor-endpoint specific assessments used in command and control types of decisions to an integrated approach for application in community-based decisions. As a result, the process of risk assessment and supporting risk analyses are evolving to characterize the human-environment relationship. Integrating risk paradigms combine the process of risk estimation for humans, biota, and natural resources into one assessment to improve the information used in environmental decisions (Suter et al. 2003b). A benefit to this approach includes a broader, system-wide evaluation that considers the interacting effects of stressors on humans and the environment, as well the interactions between these entities. To improve our understanding of the linkages within complex systems, risk assessors will need to rely on a suite of techniques for conducting rigorous analyses characterizing the exposure and effects relationships between stressors and biological receptors. Many of the analytical techniques routinely employed are narrowly focused and unable to address the complexities of an integrated assessment. In this paper, we describe an approach to integrated risk assessment, and discuss qualitative community modeling and Probabilistic Relational Modeling techniques that address these limitations and evaluate their potential for use in an integrated risk assessment of cyanobacteria.

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (CCRAF)

EPA Science Inventory

Development of a numerical framework that integrates socio-economic and physical drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, related climate changes and risks and benefits of alternative responses to perceived change or risks. The project integrates and extends existing peer-reviewed m...

Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) - TRIM.Risk

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

TRIM.Riskis used to integrate the information on exposure received from TRIM.FaTE or TRIM.Expo with that on dose-response or hazard assessment and to provide quantitative descriptions of risk or hazard and some of the attendant uncertainties.

Balancing benefit and risk of medicines: a systematic review and classification of available methodologies.

PubMed

Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Hallgreen, Christine E; Wang, Nan; Callréus, Torbjörn; Genov, Georgy; Hirsch, Ian; Hobbiger, Stephen F; Hockley, Kimberley S; Luciani, Davide; Phillips, Lawrence D; Quartey, George; Sarac, Sinan B; Stoeckert, Isabelle; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Micaleff, Alain; Ashby, Deborah

2014-07-01

The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use. A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice. We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions. Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health.

PubMed

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary S; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modeling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE's applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health

PubMed Central

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A.; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C.; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modelling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE’s applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. PMID:26827182

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2011-01-01

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Automatic performance budget: towards a risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laporte, Philippe; Blake, Simon; Schmoll, Jürgen; Rulten, Cameron; Savoie, Denis

2014-08-01

In this paper, we discuss the performance matrix of the SST-GATE telescope developed to allow us to partition and allocate the important characteristics to the various subsystems as well as to describe the process in order to verify that the current design will deliver the required performance. Due to the integrated nature of the telescope, a large number of parameters have to be controlled and effective calculation tools must be developed such as an automatic performance budget. Its main advantages consist in alleviating the work of the system engineer when changes occur in the design, in avoiding errors during any re-allocation process and recalculate automatically the scientific performance of the instrument. We explain in this paper the method to convert the ensquared energy (EE) and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) required by the science cases into the "as designed" instrument. To ensure successful design, integration and verification of the next generation instruments, it is of the utmost importance to have methods to control and manage the instrument's critical performance characteristics at its very early design steps to limit technical and cost risks in the project development. Such a performance budget is a tool towards this goal.

Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: pathways from anticipation to action.

PubMed

Brookes, V J; Hernández-Jover, M; Black, P F; Ward, M P

2015-07-01

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs - using transparent and repeatable methods - based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

University Lawyers: A Study of Legal Risk, Risk Management and Role in Work Integrated Learning Programmes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, Craig; Klopper, Christopher

2015-01-01

Work integrated learning (WIL) is in growing demand by multiple stakeholders within the higher education sector in Australia. There are significant and distinct legal risks to universities associated with WIL programmes. University lawyers, along with WIL administrators and university management, are responsible for managing legal risk. This…

Comparing and combining biomarkers as principle surrogates for time-to-event clinical endpoints.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Gilbert, Peter B

2015-02-10

Principal surrogate endpoints are useful as targets for phase I and II trials. In many recent trials, multiple post-randomization biomarkers are measured. However, few statistical methods exist for comparison of or combination of biomarkers as principal surrogates, and none of these methods to our knowledge utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information. We propose a Weibull model extension of the semi-parametric estimated maximum likelihood method that allows for the inclusion of multiple biomarkers in the same risk model as multivariate candidate principal surrogates. We propose several methods for comparing candidate principal surrogates and evaluating multivariate principal surrogates. These include the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent true and false positive fraction, the time-dependent and the integrated standardized total gain, and the cumulative distribution function of the risk difference. We illustrate the operating characteristics of our proposed methods in simulations and outline how these statistics can be used to evaluate and compare candidate principal surrogates. We use these methods to investigate candidate surrogates in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Workgroup Report: Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies

PubMed Central

Coecke, Sandra; Goldberg, Alan M; Allen, Sandra; Buzanska, Leonora; Calamandrei, Gemma; Crofton, Kevin; Hareng, Lars; Hartung, Thomas; Knaut, Holger; Honegger, Paul; Jacobs, Miriam; Lein, Pamela; Li, Abby; Mundy, William; Owen, David; Schneider, Steffen; Silbergeld, Ellen; Reum, Torsten; Trnovec, Tomas; Monnet-Tschudi, Florianne; Bal-Price, Anna

2007-01-01

This is the report of the first workshop on Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity (DNT) Testing into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies, held in Ispra, Italy, on 19–21 April 2005. The workshop was hosted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) and jointly organized by ECVAM, the European Chemical Industry Council, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing. The primary aim of the workshop was to identify and catalog potential methods that could be used to assess how data from in vitro alternative methods could help to predict and identify DNT hazards. Working groups focused on two different aspects: a) details on the science available in the field of DNT, including discussions on the models available to capture the critical DNT mechanisms and processes, and b) policy and strategy aspects to assess the integration of alternative methods in a regulatory framework. This report summarizes these discussions and details the recommendations and priorities for future work. PMID:17589601

Video calls from lay bystanders to dispatch centers - risk assessment of information security

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Video calls from mobile phones can improve communication during medical emergencies. Lay bystanders can be instructed and supervised by health professionals at Emergency Medical Communication Centers. Before implementation of video mobile calls in emergencies, issues of information security should be addressed. Methods Information security was assessed for risk, based on the information security standard ISO/IEC 27005:2008. A multi-professional team used structured brainstorming to find threats to the information security aspects confidentiality, quality, integrity, and availability. Results Twenty security threats of different risk levels were identified and analyzed. Solutions were proposed to reduce the risk level. Conclusions Given proper implementation, we found no risks to information security that would advocate against the use of video calls between lay bystanders and Emergency Medical Communication Centers. The identified threats should be used as input to formal requirements when planning and implementing video calls from mobile phones for these call centers. PMID:21958387

The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

PubMed

Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

2017-08-15

Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interactive decision support in hepatic surgery

PubMed Central

Dugas, Martin; Schauer, Rolf; Volk, Andreas; Rau, Horst

2002-01-01

Background Hepatic surgery is characterized by complicated operations with a significant peri- and postoperative risk for the patient. We developed a web-based, high-granular research database for comprehensive documentation of all relevant variables to evaluate new surgical techniques. Methods To integrate this research system into the clinical setting, we designed an interactive decision support component. The objective is to provide relevant information for the surgeon and the patient to assess preoperatively the risk of a specific surgical procedure. Based on five established predictors of patient outcomes, the risk assessment tool searches for similar cases in the database and aggregates the information to estimate the risk for an individual patient. Results The physician can verify the analysis and exclude manually non-matching cases according to his expertise. The analysis is visualized by means of a Kaplan-Meier plot. To evaluate the decision support component we analyzed data on 165 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (period 1996–2000). The similarity search provides a two-peak distribution indicating there are groups of similar patients and singular cases which are quite different to the average. The results of the risk estimation are consistent with the observed survival data, but must be interpreted with caution because of the limited number of matching reference cases. Conclusion Critical issues for the decision support system are clinical integration, a transparent and reliable knowledge base and user feedback. PMID:12003639

The Application of Integrated Knowledge-based Systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris; Holden, Tina; Rudisill, Marianne

1993-01-01

One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN), an integrated network of both human and computer elements. The BRAIN will function as an advisor to flight surgeons by assessing the risk of in-flight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. This paper describes the joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and an Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of the following: (1) knowledge acquisition; (2) integration of IDRA components; (3) use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process; (4) development of a user-friendly interface; and (5) integration of the IDRA prototype and Exercise Countermeasures Intelligent System (ExerCISys). Because the C Language, CLIPS (the C Language Integrated Production System), and the X-Window System were portable and easily integrated, they were chosen as the tools for the initial IDRA prototype. The feasibility was tested by developing an IDRA prototype that predicts the individual risk of influenza. The application of knowledge-based systems to risk assessment is of great market value to the medical technology industry.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Poly-Omic Prediction of Complex Traits: OmicKriging

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Heather E.; Aquino-Michaels, Keston; Gamazon, Eric R.; Trubetskoy, Vassily V.; Dolan, M. Eileen; Huang, R. Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J.; Im, Hae Kyung

2014-01-01

High-confidence prediction of complex traits such as disease risk or drug response is an ultimate goal of personalized medicine. Although genome-wide association studies have discovered thousands of well-replicated polymorphisms associated with a broad spectrum of complex traits, the combined predictive power of these associations for any given trait is generally too low to be of clinical relevance. We propose a novel systems approach to complex trait prediction, which leverages and integrates similarity in genetic, transcriptomic, or other omics-level data. We translate the omic similarity into phenotypic similarity using a method called Kriging, commonly used in geostatistics and machine learning. Our method called OmicKriging emphasizes the use of a wide variety of systems-level data, such as those increasingly made available by comprehensive surveys of the genome, transcriptome, and epigenome, for complex trait prediction. Furthermore, our OmicKriging framework allows easy integration of prior information on the function of subsets of omics-level data from heterogeneous sources without the sometimes heavy computational burden of Bayesian approaches. Using seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we show that OmicKriging allows simple integration of sparse and highly polygenic components yielding comparable performance at a fraction of the computing time of a recently published Bayesian sparse linear mixed model method. Using a cellular growth phenotype, we show that integrating mRNA and microRNA expression data substantially increases performance over either dataset alone. Using clinical statin response, we show improved prediction over existing methods. PMID:24799323

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC`s PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Gilioli, G; Schrader, G; Baker, R H A; Ceglarska, E; Kertész, V K; Lövei, G; Navajas, M; Rossi, V; Tramontini, S; van Lenteren, J C

2014-01-15

The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis. © 2013.

An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

2005-01-01

This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

A model for translating ethnography and theory into culturally constructed clinical practices.

PubMed

Nastasi, Bonnie Kaul; Schensul, Jean J; Schensul, Stephen L; Mekki-Berrada, Abelwahed; Pelto, Pertti J; Maitra, Shubhada; Verma, Ravi; Saggurti, Niranjan

2015-03-01

This article describes the development of a dynamic culturally constructed clinical practice model for HIV/STI prevention, the Narrative Intervention Model (NIM), and illustrates its application in practice, within the context of a 6-year transdisciplinary research program in Mumbai, India. Theory and research from anthropology, psychology, and public health, and mixed-method ethnographic research with practitioners, patients, and community members, contributed to the articulation of the NIM for HIV/STI risk reduction and prevention among married men living in low-income communities. The NIM involves a process of negotiation of patient narratives regarding their sexual health problems and related risk factors to facilitate risk reduction. The goal of the NIM is to facilitate cognitive-behavioral change through a three-stage process of co-construction (eliciting patient narrative), deconstruction (articulating discrepancies between current and desired narrative), and reconstruction (proposing alternative narratives that facilitate risk reduction). The NIM process extends the traditional clinical approach through the integration of biological, psychological, interpersonal, and cultural factors as depicted in the patient narrative. Our work demonstrates the use of a recursive integration of research and practice to address limitations of current evidence-based intervention approaches that fail to address the diversity of cultural constructions across populations and contexts.

A Model for Translating Ethnography and Theory into Culturally Constructed Clinical Practices

PubMed Central

Schensul, Jean J.; Schensul, Stephen L.; Mekki-Berrada, Abelwahed; Pelto, Pertti J.; Maitra, Shubhada; Verma, Ravi; Saggurti, Niranjan

2015-01-01

This article describes the development of a dynamic culturally constructed clinical practice model for HIV/STI prevention, the Narrative Intervention Model (NIM), and illustrates its application in practice, within the context of a 6-year transdisciplinary research program in Mumbai, India. Theory and research from anthropology, psychology, and public health, and mixed-method ethnographic research with practitioners, patients, and community members, contributed to the articulation of the NIM for HIV/STI risk reduction and prevention among married men living in low-income communities. The NIM involves a process of negotiation of patient narratives regarding their sexual health problems and related risk factors to facilitate risk reduction. The goal of the NIM is to facilitate cognitive-behavioral change through a three-stage process of co-construction (eliciting patient narrative), deconstruction (articulating discrepancies between current and desired narrative), and reconstruction (proposing alternative narratives that facilitate risk reduction). The NIM process extends the traditional clinical approach through the integration of biological, psychological, interpersonal, and cultural factors as depicted in the patient narrative. Our work demonstrates the use of a recursive integration of research and practice to address limitations of current evidence-based intervention approaches that fail to address the diversity of cultural constructions across populations and contexts. PMID:25292448

Reducing Risk in CO2 Sequestration: A Framework for Integrated Monitoring of Basin Scale Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, C. J.; Haidari, A. S.; McRae, G. J.

2009-12-01

Geological sequestration of CO2 is an option for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Technical ability to safely store CO2 in the subsurface has been demonstrated through pilot projects and a long history of enhanced oil recovery and acid gas disposal operations. To address climate change, current injection operations must be scaled up by a factor of 100, raising issues of safety and security. Monitoring and verification is an essential component in ensuring safe operations and managing risk. Monitoring provides assurance that CO2 is securely stored in the subsurface, and the mechanisms governing transport and storage are well understood. It also provides an early warning mechanism for identification of anomalies in performance, and a means for intervention and remediation through the ability to locate the CO2. Through theoretical studies, bench scale experiments and pilot tests, a number of technologies have demonstrated their ability to monitor CO2 in the surface and subsurface. Because the focus of these studies has been to demonstrate feasibility, individual techniques have not been integrated to provide a more robust method for monitoring. Considering the large volumes required for injection, size of the potential footprint, length of time a project must be monitored and uncertainty, operational considerations of cost and risk must balance safety and security. Integration of multiple monitoring techniques will reduce uncertainty in monitoring injected CO2, thereby reducing risk. We present a framework for risk management of large scale injection through model based monitoring network design. This framework is applied to monitoring CO2 in a synthetic reservoir where there is uncertainty in the underlying permeability field controlling fluid migration. Deformation and seismic data are used to track plume migration. A modified Ensemble Kalman filter approach is used to estimate flow properties by jointly assimilating flow and geomechanical observations. Issues of risk, cost and uncertainty are considered.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model.

PubMed

Hagenlocher, Michael; Castro, Marcia C

2015-01-01

Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) impose a heavy burden on vulnerable populations. Despite recent progress in eradication and control, malaria remains the most prevalent VBD. Integrative approaches that take into account environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, biological, cultural, and political factors contributing to malaria risk and vulnerability are needed to effectively reduce malaria burden. Although the focus on malaria risk has increasingly gained ground, little emphasis has been given to develop quantitative methods for assessing malaria risk including malaria vulnerability in a spatial explicit manner. Building on a conceptual risk and vulnerability framework, we propose a spatial explicit approach for modeling relative levels of malaria risk - as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability - in the United Republic of Tanzania. A logistic regression model was employed to identify a final set of risk factors and their contribution to malaria endemicity based on multidisciplinary geospatial information. We utilized a Geographic Information System for the construction and visualization of a malaria vulnerability index and its integration into a spatially explicit malaria risk map. The spatial pattern of malaria risk was very heterogeneous across the country. Malaria risk was higher in Mainland areas than in Zanzibar, which is a result of differences in both malaria entomological inoculation rate and prevailing vulnerabilities. Areas of high malaria risk were identified in the southeastern part of the country, as well as in two distinct "hotspots" in the northwestern part of the country bordering Lake Victoria, while concentrations of high malaria vulnerability seem to occur in the northwestern, western, and southeastern parts of the mainland. Results were visualized using both 10×10 km(2) grids and subnational administrative units. The presented approach makes an important contribution toward a decision support tool. By decomposing malaria risk into its components, the approach offers evidence on which factors could be targeted for reducing malaria risk and vulnerability to the disease. Ultimately, results offer relevant information for place-based intervention planning and more effective spatial allocation of resources.

The Relationship Between Financial Strain, Perceived Stress, Psychological Symptoms, and Academic and Social Integration in Undergraduate Students

PubMed Central

Adams, Danielle R.; Meyers, Steven A.; Beidas, Rinad S.

2016-01-01

Objective Financial strain may directly or indirectly (i.e., through perceived stress) impact students’ psychological symptoms and academic and social integration, yet few studies have tested these relationships. We explored the mediating effect of perceived stress on the relationship between financial strain and two important outcomes: psychological symptomology and academic and social integration. Participants Participants were 157 undergraduate students. Data were collected from December 2013 to March 2014. Methods Cross-sectional data collection conducted using online survey software. Results We found that perceived stress mediated the relationship between financial strain and (a) psychological symptomology and (b) academic and social integration. Both models included first-generation status as a covariate. Conclusions Results suggest that perceived stress is an important intervention target for reducing psychological symptoms and improving academic and social integration for undergraduate students. Implications for university health centers and mental health professionals include incorporating a public health model to minimize stress risk. PMID:26943354

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

PubMed

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-09-05

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

PubMed Central

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-01-01

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

Biosocial Conservation: Integrating Biological and Ethnographic Methods to Study Human-Primate Interactions.

PubMed

Setchell, Joanna M; Fairet, Emilie; Shutt, Kathryn; Waters, Siân; Bell, Sandra

2017-01-01

Biodiversity conservation is one of the grand challenges facing society. Many people interested in biodiversity conservation have a background in wildlife biology. However, the diverse social, cultural, political, and historical factors that influence the lives of people and wildlife can be investigated fully only by incorporating social science methods, ideally within an interdisciplinary framework. Cultural hierarchies of knowledge and the hegemony of the natural sciences create a barrier to interdisciplinary understandings. Here, we review three different projects that confront this difficulty, integrating biological and ethnographic methods to study conservation problems. The first project involved wildlife foraging on crops around a newly established national park in Gabon. Biological methods revealed the extent of crop loss, the species responsible, and an effect of field isolation, while ethnography revealed institutional and social vulnerability to foraging wildlife. The second project concerned great ape tourism in the Central African Republic. Biological methods revealed that gorilla tourism poses risks to gorillas, while ethnography revealed why people seek close proximity to gorillas. The third project focused on humans and other primates living alongside one another in Morocco. Incorporating shepherds in the coproduction of ecological knowledge about primates built trust and altered attitudes to the primates. These three case studies demonstrate how the integration of biological and social methods can help us to understand the sustainability of human-wildlife interactions, and thus promote coexistence. In each case, an integrated biosocial approach incorporating ethnographic data produced results that would not otherwise have come to light. Research that transcends conventional academic boundaries requires the openness and flexibility to move beyond one's comfort zone to understand and acknowledge the legitimacy of "other" kinds of knowledge. It is challenging but crucial if we are to address conservation problems effectively.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

PubMed Central

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Characterization and Fate of Gun and Rocket Propellant Residues on Testing and Training Ranges

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

ext/reg_e.html. 36. United States Environmental Protection Agency (2007) Integrated Risk Information System: Hydrogen cyanide, http://www.epa.gov/ iris ...Environmental Protection Agency (2007) Integrated Risk Information System: Benzene, http://www.epa.gov/ iris /subst/0276.htm 42. United States Environmental...Protection Agency (2007) Integrated Risk Information System: Toluene, http://www.epa.gov/ iris /subst/0118.htm. 43. National Library of Medicine’s TOXNET

Tell Me What I Need to Know: What Mayors and Governors Want From Their Fusion Center

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

jurisdictions where daily risks and threats emerge from the complexities of an integrated world. Paradoxically, as will be outlined through this...environment for their jurisdictions where daily risks and threats emerge from the complexities of an integrated world. Paradoxically, as will be outlined...their jurisdictions where daily risks and threats emerge from the complexities of an integrated world. This setting, where the confluence of

Spacelab Mission Implementation Cost Assessment (SMICA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guynes, B. V.

1984-01-01

A total savings of approximately 20 percent is attainable if: (1) mission management and ground processing schedules are compressed; (2) the equipping, staffing, and operating of the Payload Operations Control Center is revised, and (3) methods of working with experiment developers are changed. The development of a new mission implementation technique, which includes mission definition, experiment development, and mission integration/operations, is examined. The Payload Operations Control Center is to relocate and utilize new computer equipment to produce cost savings. Methods of reducing costs by minimizing the Spacelab and payload processing time during pre- and post-mission operation at KSC are analyzed. The changes required to reduce costs in the analytical integration process are studied. The influence of time, requirements accountability, and risk on costs is discussed. Recommendation for cost reductions developed by the Spacelab Mission Implementation Cost Assessment study are listed.

Suborbital Science Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vachon, Jacques; Curry, Robert E.

2010-01-01

Program Objectives: 1) Satellite Calibration and Validation: Provide methods to perform the cal/val requirements for Earth Observing System satellites. 2) New Sensor Development: Provide methods to reduce risk for new sensor concepts and algorithm development prior to committing sensors to operations. 3) Process Studies: Facilitate the acquisition of high spatial/temporal resolution focused measurements that are required to understand small atmospheric and surface structures which generate powerful Earth system effects. 4) Airborne Networking: Develop disruption-tolerant networking to enable integrated multiple scale measurements of critical environmental features. Dryden Capabilities include: a) Aeronautics history of aircraft developments and milestones. b) Extensive history and experience in instrument integration. c) Extensive history and experience in aircraft modifications. d) Strong background in international deployments. e) Long history of reliable and dependable execution of projects. f) Varied aircraft types providing different capabilities, performance and duration.

New approach to weight-of-evidence assessment of ecotoxicological effects in regulatory decision-making.

PubMed

Hall, A Tilghman; Belanger, Scott E; Guiney, Pat D; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; Maack, Gerd; Stubblefield, William; Martin, Olwenn

2017-07-01

Ecological risk assessments and risk management decisions are only as sound as the underlying information and processes to integrate them. It is important to develop transparent and reproducible procedures a priori to integrate often-heterogeneous evidence. Current weight-of-evidence (WoE) approaches for effects or hazard assessment tend to conflate aspects of the assessment of the quality of the data with the strength of the body of evidence as a whole. We take forward recent developments in the critical appraisal of the reliability and relevance of individual ecotoxicological studies as part of the effect or hazard assessment of prospective risk assessments and propose a streamlined WoE approach. The aim is to avoid overlap and double accounting of criteria used in reliability and relevance with that used in current WoE methods. The protection goals, problem formulation, and evaluation process need to be clarified at the outset. The data are first integrated according to lines of evidence (LoEs), typically mechanistic insights (e.g., cellular, subcellular, genomic), in vivo experiments, and higher-tiered field or observational studies. Data are then plotted on the basis of both relevance and reliability scores or categories. This graphical approach provides a means to visually assess and communicate the credibility (reliability and relevance of available individual studies), quantity, diversity, and consistency of the evidence. In addition, the external coherence of the body of evidence needs to be considered. The final step in the process is to derive an expression of the confidence in the conclusions of integrating the information considering these 5 aspects in the context of remaining uncertainties. We suggest that this streamlined approach to WoE for the effects or hazard characterization should facilitate reproducible and transparent assessments of data across different regulatory requirements. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:573-579. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Integrating payer and provider risk through capitation.

PubMed

Barth, S M

1997-01-01

Capitation payment mechanisms promote conservative use of medical resources by transferring risk to the decision maker, the physician. However, there is another view of capitation: defining common risk between provider-driven organizations (i.e., physician/hospital organizations (PHOs) or integrated delivery systems (IDS), and risk-managing entities such as HMOs or insurance companies. This article discusses a strategy to align provider and risk manager incentives to share the risks and rewards for a total book of business or population.

Unsupervised nonlinear dimensionality reduction machine learning methods applied to multiparametric MRI in cerebral ischemia: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parekh, Vishwa S.; Jacobs, Jeremy R.; Jacobs, Michael A.

2014-03-01

The evaluation and treatment of acute cerebral ischemia requires a technique that can determine the total area of tissue at risk for infarction using diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences. Typical MRI data sets consist of T1- and T2-weighted imaging (T1WI, T2WI) along with advanced MRI parameters of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and perfusion weighted imaging (PWI) methods. Each of these parameters has distinct radiological-pathological meaning. For example, DWI interrogates the movement of water in the tissue and PWI gives an estimate of the blood flow, both are critical measures during the evolution of stroke. In order to integrate these data and give an estimate of the tissue at risk or damaged; we have developed advanced machine learning methods based on unsupervised non-linear dimensionality reduction (NLDR) techniques. NLDR methods are a class of algorithms that uses mathematically defined manifolds for statistical sampling of multidimensional classes to generate a discrimination rule of guaranteed statistical accuracy and they can generate a two- or three-dimensional map, which represents the prominent structures of the data and provides an embedded image of meaningful low-dimensional structures hidden in their high-dimensional observations. In this manuscript, we develop NLDR methods on high dimensional MRI data sets of preclinical animals and clinical patients with stroke. On analyzing the performance of these methods, we observed that there was a high of similarity between multiparametric embedded images from NLDR methods and the ADC map and perfusion map. It was also observed that embedded scattergram of abnormal (infarcted or at risk) tissue can be visualized and provides a mechanism for automatic methods to delineate potential stroke volumes and early tissue at risk.

Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

PubMed

Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

2010-01-01

The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

EPA Science Inventory

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

Successful applications of montessori methods with children at risk for learning disabilities.

PubMed

Pickering, J S

1992-12-01

The critical elements in the Montessori philosophy are respect for the child, individualization of the program to that child, and the fostering of independence. With her research background, Maria Montessori devised a multisensory developmental method and designed materials which isolate each concept the teacher presents to the child.In presenting these materials the teacher observes the concept and skill development level of the child, ascertaining areas of strength and weakness and matching the next presentation to the child's level of development. Using small sequential steps, the teacher works to ameliorate weakness and guide the student to maximize his strengths. These presentations, usually initiated by the child, enhance cognitive growth using a process which integrates his physical, social, and emotional development.The curriculum contains four major content areas: Practical Life; Sensorial; Oral and Written Language; and Mathematics. Geography, History, Science, Art, Music, Literature, and Motor Skills are also included. In all of these the Montessori presentations build from the simple to the complex, from the concrete to the abstract, and from percept to concept. Vocabulary and language usage are integral to each presentation.The procedures introduced through these presentations are designed to enhance attention, increase self-discipline and self-direction, and to promote order, organization, and the development of a work cycle. At-risk children benefit from the structure, the procedures, and the curriculum. Applications of this method require more teacher selection of materials and direct teaching, particularly of language and math symbols and their manipulations.This early childhood intervention provides an individualized program which allows the at-risk child a successful experience at the preschool level. The program includes a strong conceptual preparation for later academic learning and it promotes the development of a healthy self-concept.

Integrated Laboratory and Field Investigations: Assessing Contaminant Risk to American Badgers

EPA Science Inventory

This manuscript provides an example of integrated laboratory and field approach to complete a toxicological ecological risk assessment at the landscape level. The core findings from the study demonstrate how radio telemetry data can allow for ranking the relative risks of contam...

Management of Occupational Exposure to Engineered Nanoparticles Through a Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Programming Approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhi; Yuan, Yuan; Zhang, Shu-Shen; Chen, Yu; Yang, Feng-Lin

2013-01-01

Critical environmental and human health concerns are associated with the rapidly growing fields of nanotechnology and manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs). The main risk arises from occupational exposure via chronic inhalation of nanoparticles. This research presents a chance-constrained nonlinear programming (CCNLP) optimization approach, which is developed to maximize the nanaomaterial production and minimize the risks of workplace exposure to MNMs. The CCNLP method integrates nonlinear programming (NLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP), and handles uncertainties associated with both the nanomaterial production and workplace exposure control. The CCNLP method was examined through a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) manufacturing process. The study results provide optimal production strategies and alternatives. It reveal that a high control measure guarantees that environmental health and safety (EHS) standards regulations are met, while a lower control level leads to increased risk of violating EHS regulations. The CCNLP optimization approach is a decision support tool for the optimization of the increasing MNMS manufacturing with workplace safety constraints under uncertainties. PMID:23531490

Management of occupational exposure to engineered nanoparticles through a chance-constrained nonlinear programming approach.

PubMed

Chen, Zhi; Yuan, Yuan; Zhang, Shu-Shen; Chen, Yu; Yang, Feng-Lin

2013-03-26

Critical environmental and human health concerns are associated with the rapidly growing fields of nanotechnology and manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs). The main risk arises from occupational exposure via chronic inhalation of nanoparticles. This research presents a chance-constrained nonlinear programming (CCNLP) optimization approach, which is developed to maximize the nanaomaterial production and minimize the risks of workplace exposure to MNMs. The CCNLP method integrates nonlinear programming (NLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP), and handles uncertainties associated with both the nanomaterial production and workplace exposure control. The CCNLP method was examined through a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) manufacturing process. The study results provide optimal production strategies and alternatives. It reveal that a high control measure guarantees that environmental health and safety (EHS) standards regulations are met, while a lower control level leads to increased risk of violating EHS regulations. The CCNLP optimization approach is a decision support tool for the optimization of the increasing MNMS manufacturing with workplace safety constraints under uncertainties.

Arsenic contamination of drinking water in Ireland: A spatial analysis of occurrence and potential risk.

PubMed

McGrory, Ellen R; Brown, Colin; Bargary, Norma; Williams, Natalya Hunter; Mannix, Anthony; Zhang, Chaosheng; Henry, Tiernan; Daly, Eve; Nicholas, Sarah; Petrunic, Barbara M; Lee, Monica; Morrison, Liam

2017-02-01

The presence of arsenic in groundwater has become a global concern due to the health risks from drinking water with elevated concentrations. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union calls for drinking water risk assessment for member states. The present study amalgamates readily available national and sub-national scale datasets on arsenic in groundwater in the Republic of Ireland. However, due to the presence of high levels of left censoring (i.e. arsenic values below an analytical detection limit) and changes in detection limits over time, the application of conventional statistical methods would inhibit the generation of meaningful results. In order to handle these issues several arsenic databases were integrated and the data modelled using statistical methods appropriate for non-detect data. In addition, geostatistical methods were used to assess principal risk components of elevated arsenic related to lithology, aquifer type and groundwater vulnerability. Geographic statistical methods were used to overcome some of the geographical limitations of the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sample database. Nearest-neighbour inverse distance weighting (IDW) and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) methods were used to estimate risk in non-sampled areas. Significant differences were also noted between different aquifer lithologies, indicating that Rhyolite, Sandstone and Shale (Greywackes), and Impure Limestone potentially presented a greater risk of elevated arsenic in groundwaters. Significant differences also occurred among aquifer types with poorly productive aquifers, locally important fractured bedrock aquifers and regionally important fissured bedrock aquifers presenting the highest potential risk of elevated arsenic. No significant differences were detected among different groundwater vulnerability groups as defined by the Geological Survey of Ireland. This research will assist management and future policy directions of groundwater resources at EU level and guide future research focused on understanding arsenic mobilisation processes to facilitate in guiding future development, testing and treatment requirements of groundwater resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining a Method of Enabling and Disabling the Integral Torque in the SDO Science and Inertial Mode Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vess, Melissa F.; Starin, Scott R.

2007-01-01

During design of the SDO Science and Inertial mode PID controllers, the decision was made to disable the integral torque whenever system stability was in question. Three different schemes were developed to determine when to disable or enable the integral torque, and a trade study was performed to determine which scheme to implement. The trade study compared complexity of the control logic, risk of not reenabling the integral gain in time to reject steady-state error, and the amount of integral torque space used. The first scheme calculated a simplified Routh criterion to determine when to disable the integral torque. The second scheme calculates the PD part of the torque and looked to see if that torque would cause actuator saturation. If so, only the PD torque is used. If not, the integral torque is added. Finally, the third scheme compares the attitude and rate errors to limits and disables the integral torque if either of the errors is greater than the limit. Based on the trade study results, the third scheme was selected. Once it was decided when to disable the integral torque, analysis was performed to determine how to disable the integral torque and whether or not to reset the integrator once the integral torque was reenabled. Three ways to disable the integral torque were investigated: zero the input into the integrator, which causes the integral part of the PID control torque to be held constant; zero the integral torque directly but allow the integrator to continue integrating; or zero the integral torque directly and reset the integrator on integral torque reactivation. The analysis looked at complexity of the control logic, slew time plus settling time between each calibration maneuver step, and ability to reject steady-state error. Based on the results of the analysis, the decision was made to zero the input into the integrator without resetting it. Throughout the analysis, a high fidelity simulation was used to test the various implementation methods.

Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits.

PubMed

Saikami, D

1997-10-01

Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits in integrated health systems is explained. A managed care organization should assume financial risk for pharmacy benefits only if it can manage the risk. Horizontally integrated organizations often do not have much control over the management of drug utilization and costs. Vertically integrated organizations have the greatest ability to manage pharmacy financial risk; virtual integration may also be compatible. Contracts can be established in which the provider is incentivized or placed at partial or full risk. The main concerns that health plans have with respect to pharmacy capitation are formulary management and the question of who should receive rebates from manufacturers. The components needed to managed pharmacy financial risk depend on the type of contract negotiated. Health-system pharmacists are uniquely positioned to take advantage of opportunities opening up through pharmacy risk contracting. Functions most organizations must provide when assuming pharmacy financial risk can be divided into internal and external categories. Internally performed functions include formulary management, clinical pharmacy services and utilization management, and utilization reports for physicians. Functions that can be outsourced include claims processing and administration, provider- and customer support services, and rebates. Organizations that integrate the pharmacy benefit across the health care continuum will be more effective in controlling costs and improving outcomes than organizations that handle this benefit as separate from others. Patient care should not focus on payment mechanisms and unit costs but on developing superior processes and systems that improve health care.

Evaluating Approaches to a Coupled Model for Arctic Coastal Erosion, Infrastructure Risk, and Associated Coastal Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, J. M.; Bull, D. L.; Jones, C.; Roberts, J.; Thomas, M. A.

2016-12-01

Arctic coastlines are receding at accelerated rates, putting existing and future activities in the developing coastal Arctic environment at extreme risk. For example, at Oliktok Long Range Radar Site, erosion that was not expected until 2040 was reached as of 2014 (Alaska Public Media). As the Arctic Ocean becomes increasingly ice-free, rates of coastal erosion will likely continue to increase as (a) increased ice-free waters generate larger waves, (b) sea levels rise, and (c) coastal permafrost soils warm and lose strength/cohesion. Due to the complex and rapidly varying nature of the Arctic region, little is known about the increasing waves, changing circulation, permafrost soil degradation, and the response of the coastline to changes in these combined conditions. However, as scientific focus has been shifting towards the polar regions, Arctic science is rapidly advancing, increasing our understanding of complex Arctic processes. Our present understanding allows us to begin to develop and evaluate the coupled models necessary for the prediction of coastal erosion in support of Arctic risk assessments. What are the best steps towards the development of a coupled model for Arctic coastal erosion? This work focuses on our current understanding of Arctic conditions and identifying the tools and methods required to develop an integrated framework capable of accurately predicting Arctic coastline erosion and assessing coastal risk and hazards. We will present a summary of the state-of-the-science, and identify existing tools and methods required to develop an integrated diagnostic and monitoring framework capable of accurately predicting and assessing Arctic coastline erosion, infrastructure risk, and coastal hazards. The summary will describe the key coastal processes to simulate, appropriate models to use, effective methods to couple existing models, and identify gaps in knowledge that require further attention to make progress in our understanding of Arctic coastal erosion. * Co-authors listed in alphabetical order. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luco, N.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for post-earthquake probabilistic risk (of damage) assessment that we propose in order to develop a computational tool for automatic or semi-automatic assessment. The methodology utilizes the same so-called risk integral which can be used for pre-earthquake probabilistic assessment. The risk integral couples (i) ground motion hazard information for the location of a structure of interest with (ii) knowledge of the fragility of the structure with respect to potential ground motion intensities. In the proposed post-mainshock methodology, the ground motion hazard component of the risk integral is adapted to account for aftershocks which are deliberately excluded from typical pre-earthquake hazard assessments and which decrease in frequency with the time elapsed since the mainshock. Correspondingly, the structural fragility component is adapted to account for any damage caused by the mainshock, as well as any uncertainty in the extent of this damage. The result of the adapted risk integral is a fully-probabilistic quantification of post-mainshock seismic risk that can inform emergency response mobilization, inspection prioritization, and re-occupancy decisions.

Early forecasting of crop condition using an integrative remote sensing method for corn and soybeans in Iowa and Illinois, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Bumsuk; Lee, Jihye; Kang, Sinkyu

2017-04-01

The weather-related risks in crop production is not only crucial for farmers but also for market participants and policy makers since securing food supply is an important issue for society. While crop growth condition and phenology are essential information about such risks, the extensive observations on those are often non-existent in many parts of the world. In this study, we have developed a novel integrative approach to remotely sense crop growth condition and phenology at a large scale. For corn and soybeans in Iowa and Illinois of USA (2003-2014), we assessed crop growth condition and crop phenology by EO data and validated it against the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Statistics System (NASS) crop statistics. For growth condition, we used two distinguished approaches to acquire crop condition indicators: a process-based crop growth modelling and a satellite NDVI based method. Based on their pixel-wise historic distributions, we determined relative growth conditions and scaled-down to the state-level. For crop phenology, we calculated three crop phenology metrics [i.e., start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), and peak of season (POS)] at the pixel level from MODIS 8-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The estimates were compared with the Crop Progress and Condition (CPC) data of NASS. For the condition, the state-level 10-day estimates showed a moderate agreement (RMSE < 15.0%) and the average accuracy of the normal/bad year classification was well (> 70%). Notably, the condition estimates corresponded to the severe soybeans disease in 2003 and the drought in 2012 for both crops. For the phenology, the average RMSE of the estimates was 8.6 day for the all three metrics. The average |ME| was smaller than 1.0 day after bias correction. The proposed method enables us to evaluate crop growth at any given period and place. Global climate changes are increasing the risk in agricultural production such as long-term drought. We hope that the presented remote sensing method for crop condition and crop phenology contributes to reducing the growing risk of crop production in the Earth.

Omnibus Risk Assessment via Accelerated Failure Time Kernel Machine Modeling

PubMed Central

Sinnott, Jennifer A.; Cai, Tianxi

2013-01-01

Summary Integrating genomic information with traditional clinical risk factors to improve the prediction of disease outcomes could profoundly change the practice of medicine. However, the large number of potential markers and possible complexity of the relationship between markers and disease make it difficult to construct accurate risk prediction models. Standard approaches for identifying important markers often rely on marginal associations or linearity assumptions and may not capture non-linear or interactive effects. In recent years, much work has been done to group genes into pathways and networks. Integrating such biological knowledge into statistical learning could potentially improve model interpretability and reliability. One effective approach is to employ a kernel machine (KM) framework, which can capture nonlinear effects if nonlinear kernels are used (Scholkopf and Smola, 2002; Liu et al., 2007, 2008). For survival outcomes, KM regression modeling and testing procedures have been derived under a proportional hazards (PH) assumption (Li and Luan, 2003; Cai et al., 2011). In this paper, we derive testing and prediction methods for KM regression under the accelerated failure time model, a useful alternative to the PH model. We approximate the null distribution of our test statistic using resampling procedures. When multiple kernels are of potential interest, it may be unclear in advance which kernel to use for testing and estimation. We propose a robust Omnibus Test that combines information across kernels, and an approach for selecting the best kernel for estimation. The methods are illustrated with an application in breast cancer. PMID:24328713

Incorporating High-Dimensional Exposure Modelling into Studies of Air Pollution and Health.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Shaddick, Gavin; Zidek, James V

2017-01-01

Performing studies on the risks of environmental hazards on human health requires accurate estimates of exposures that might be experienced by the populations at risk. Often there will be missing data and in many epidemiological studies, the locations and times of exposure measurements and health data do not match. To a large extent this will be due to the health and exposure data having arisen from completely different data sources and not as the result of a carefully designed study, leading to problems of both 'change of support' and 'misaligned data'. In such cases, a direct comparison of the exposure and health outcome is often not possible without an underlying model to align the two in the spatial and temporal domains. The Bayesian approach provides the natural framework for such models; however, the large amounts of data that can arise from environmental networks means that inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo might not be computationally feasible in this setting. Here we adapt the integrated nested Laplace approximation to implement spatio-temporal exposure models. We also propose methods for the integration of large-scale exposure models and health analyses. It is important that any model structure allows the correct propagation of uncertainty from the predictions of the exposure model through to the estimates of risk and associated confidence intervals. The methods are demonstrated using a case study of the levels of black smoke in the UK, measured over several decades, and respiratory mortality.

Randomized Clinical Trial of Therapeutic Music Video Intervention for Resilience Outcomes in Adolescents/Young Adults Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant: A Report from the Children’s Oncology Group

PubMed Central

Robb, Sheri L.; Burns, Debra S.; Stegenga, Kristin A.; Haut, Paul R.; Monahan, Patrick O.; Meza, Jane; Stump, Timothy E.; Cherven, Brooke O.; Docherty, Sharron L.; Hendricks-Ferguson, Verna L.; Kintner, Eileen K.; Haight, Ann E.; Wall, Donna A.; Haase, Joan E.

2013-01-01

Background To reduce the risk of adjustment problems associated with Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) for adolescents/young adults (AYA), we examined efficacy of a therapeutic music video (TMV) intervention delivered during the acute phase of HSCT to: (a) increase protective factors of spiritual perspective, social integration, family environment, courageous coping, and hope-derived meaning; (b) decrease risk factors of illness-related distress and defensive coping; and (c) increase outcomes of self-transcendence and resilience. Methods A multi-site, randomized controlled trial (COG-ANUR0631) conducted at 8 Children’s Oncology Group sites involving 113 AYA aged 11–24 years undergoing myeloablative HSCT. Participants, randomized to the TMV or low-dose control (audiobooks) group, completed 6 sessions over 3 weeks with a board-certified music therapist. Variables were based on Haase’s Resilience in Illness Model. Participants completed measures related to latent variables of illness-related distress, social integration, spiritual perspective, family environment, coping, hope-derived meaning and resilience at baseline (T1), post-intervention (T2), and 100-days post-transplant (T3). Results At T2, the TMV group reported significantly better courageous coping (ES=0.505; P=0.030). At T3, the TMV group reported significantly better social integration (ES=0.543; P=.028) and family environment (ES=0.663; P=0.008), as well as moderate non-significant effect sizes for spiritual perspective (E=0.450; P=0.071) and self-transcendence (ES=0.424; P=0.088). Conclusion The TMV intervention improves positive health outcomes of courageous coping, social integration, and family environment during a high risk cancer treatment. We recommend the TMV be examined in a broader population of AYA with high risk cancers. PMID:24469862

Usefulness of the addition of beta-2-microglobulin, cystatin C and C-reactive protein to an established risk factors model to improve mortality risk prediction in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

PubMed

Nead, Kevin T; Zhou, Margaret J; Caceres, Roxanne Diaz; Sharp, Stephen J; Wehner, Mackenzie R; Olin, Jeffrey W; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2013-03-15

Evidence-based therapies are available to reduce the risk for death from cardiovascular disease, yet many patients go untreated. Novel methods are needed to identify those at highest risk for cardiovascular death. In this study, the biomarkers β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein were measured at baseline in a cohort of participants who underwent coronary angiography. Adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine whether the biomarkers predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Additionally, improvements in risk reclassification and discrimination were evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement, C-index, and integrated discrimination improvement with the addition of the biomarkers to a baseline model of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and death. During a median follow-up period of 5.6 years, there were 78 deaths among 470 participants. All biomarkers independently predicted future all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A significant improvement in risk reclassification was observed for all-cause (net reclassification improvement 35.8%, p = 0.004) and cardiovascular (net reclassification improvement 61.9%, p = 0.008) mortality compared to the baseline risk factors model. Additionally, there was significantly increased risk discrimination with C-indexes of 0.777 (change in C-index 0.057, 95% confidence interval 0.016 to 0.097) and 0.826 (change in C-index 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.133) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Improvements in risk discrimination were further supported using the integrated discrimination improvement index. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein predict mortality and improve risk reclassification and discrimination for a high-risk cohort of patients who undergo coronary angiography. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

2015-12-01

This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

Use of Non-Apical Assay Data in an Integrated Approach to Testing and Assessment of Chemical Mixtures in the Environment: the Advent of Adverse Outcome Pathway Footprinting

EPA Science Inventory

This speaker abstract is part of a session proposal for the 2018 Society of Toxicology annual meeting. I am proposing to speak about the use of new approach methods and data, such as AOPs, in mixtures risk assessment. I have developed an innovative approach called AOP footprint...

Integration of childhood TB into guidelines for the management of acute malnutrition in high burden countries.

PubMed

Patel, L N; Detjen, A K

2017-06-21

Introduction: Childhood tuberculosis (TB) and undernutrition are major global public health challenges. In 2015, although an estimated 1 million children aged <15 years developed TB, the majority of the cases remain undiagnosed, partly due to a lack of awareness and capacity by providers who serve as the first point of care for sick children. This calls for better integration of TB with child health and nutrition services. TB can cause or worsen undernutrition, and undernutrition increases the risk of TB. Methods: Guidelines for the management of acute malnutrition from 17 high TB burden countries were reviewed to gather information on TB symptom screening, exposure history, and treatment. Results: Seven (41%) countries recommend routine TB screening among children with acute malnutrition, and six (35%) recommend obtaining a TB exposure history. Conclusion: TB screening is not consistently included in guidelines for acute malnutrition in high TB burden countries. Routine TB risk assessment, especially history of TB exposure, among acutely malnourished children, combined with improved linkages with TB services, would help increase TB case finding and could impact outcomes. Operational research on how best to integrate services at different levels of the health care system is needed.

Integration of childhood TB into guidelines for the management of acute malnutrition in high burden countries

PubMed Central

Detjen, A. K.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Childhood tuberculosis (TB) and undernutrition are major global public health challenges. In 2015, although an estimated 1 million children aged <15 years developed TB, the majority of the cases remain undiagnosed, partly due to a lack of awareness and capacity by providers who serve as the first point of care for sick children. This calls for better integration of TB with child health and nutrition services. TB can cause or worsen undernutrition, and undernutrition increases the risk of TB. Methods: Guidelines for the management of acute malnutrition from 17 high TB burden countries were reviewed to gather information on TB symptom screening, exposure history, and treatment. Results: Seven (41%) countries recommend routine TB screening among children with acute malnutrition, and six (35%) recommend obtaining a TB exposure history. Conclusion: TB screening is not consistently included in guidelines for acute malnutrition in high TB burden countries. Routine TB risk assessment, especially history of TB exposure, among acutely malnourished children, combined with improved linkages with TB services, would help increase TB case finding and could impact outcomes. Operational research on how best to integrate services at different levels of the health care system is needed. PMID:28695083

From Statistical Significance to Clinical Relevance: A Simple Algorithm to Integrate BNP and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; French, Benjamin; Mirzoyev, Sultan A.; Jaffe, Allan S; Levy, Wayne C.; Fang, James C.; Sweitzer, Nancy K.; Cappola, Thomas P.; Redfield, Margaret M.

2016-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and multivariable risk-scores such as the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) to predict risk in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A practical way to integrate information from these two prognostic tools is lacking. We sought to establish a SHFM+BNP risk-stratification algorithm. Methods The retrospective derivation cohort included consecutive patients with HFrEF at Mayo. One-year outcome (death, transplantation or ventricular assist device) was assessed. The SHFM+BNP algorithm was derived by stratifying patients within SHFM-predicted risk categories (≤2.5%, 2.6–≤10%, >10%) according to BNP above or below 700 pg/mL and comparing SHFM-predicted and observed event rates within each SHFM+BNP category. The algorithm was validated in a prospective, multicenter HFrEF registry (Penn HF Study). Results Derivation (n=441; one-year event rate 17%) and validation (n=1513; one-year event rate 12%) cohorts differed with the former being older and more likely ischemic with worse symptoms, lower EF, worse renal function, higher BNP and SHFM scores. In both cohorts, across the three SHFM-predicted risk strata, a BNP>700 pg/ml consistently identified patients with approximately three-fold the risk that the SHFM would have otherwise estimated regardless stage of HF, intensity and duration of HF-therapy, and comorbidities. Conversely, the SHFM was appropriately calibrated in patients with a BNP<700 pg/ml. Conclusion The simple SHFM+BNP algorithm displays stable performance across diverse HFrEF cohorts and may enhance risk stratification to enable appropriate decisions regarding HF therapeutic or palliative strategies. PMID:27021278

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

Design Tool Using a New Optimization Method Based on a Stochastic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

Conventional optimization methods are based on a deterministic approach since their purpose is to find out an exact solution. However, such methods have initial condition dependence and the risk of falling into local solution. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method based on the concept of path integrals used in quantum mechanics. The method obtains a solution as an expected value (stochastic average) using a stochastic process. The advantages of this method are that it is not affected by initial conditions and does not require techniques based on experiences. We applied the new optimization method to a hang glider design. In this problem, both the hang glider design and its flight trajectory were optimized. The numerical calculation results prove that performance of the method is sufficient for practical use.

Consensus report on the future of animal-free systemic toxicity testing.

PubMed

Leist, Marcel; Hasiwa, Nina; Rovida, Costanza; Daneshian, Mardas; Basketter, David; Kimber, Ian; Clewell, Harvey; Gocht, Tilman; Goldberg, Alan; Busquet, Francois; Rossi, Anna-Maria; Schwarz, Michael; Stephens, Martin; Taalman, Rob; Knudsen, Thomas B; McKim, James; Harris, Georgina; Pamies, David; Hartung, Thomas

2014-01-01

Since March 2013, animal use for cosmetics testing for the European market has been banned. This requires a renewed view on risk assessment in this field. However, in other fields as well, traditional animal experimentation does not always satisfy requirements in safety testing, as the need for human-relevant information is ever increasing. A general strategy for animal-free test approaches was outlined by the US National Research Council`s vision document for Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century in 2007. It is now possible to provide a more defined roadmap on how to implement this vision for the four principal areas of systemic toxicity evaluation: repeat dose organ toxicity, carcinogenicity, reproductive toxicity and allergy induction (skin sensitization), as well as for the evaluation of toxicant metabolism (toxicokinetics) (Fig. 1). CAAT-Europe assembled experts from Europe, America and Asia to design a scientific roadmap for future risk assessment approaches and the outcome was then further discussed and refined in two consensus meetings with over 200 stakeholders. The key recommendations include: focusing on improving existing methods rather than favoring de novo design; combining hazard testing with toxicokinetics predictions; developing integrated test strategies; incorporating new high content endpoints to classical assays; evolving test validation procedures; promoting collaboration and data-sharing of different industrial sectors; integrating new disciplines, such as systems biology and high throughput screening; and involving regulators early on in the test development process. A focus on data quality, combined with increased attention to the scientific background of a test method, will be important drivers. Information from each test system should be mapped along adverse outcome pathways. Finally, quantitative information on all factors and key events will be fed into systems biology models that allow a probabilistic risk assessment with flexible adaptation to exposure scenarios and individual risk factors.

Medical Data Architecture Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krihak, M.; Middour, C.; Lindsey, A.; Marker, N.; Wolfe, S.; Winther, S.; Ronzano, K.; Bolles, D.; Toscano, W.; Shaw, T.

2017-01-01

The Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk to minimize or reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance due to in-flight medical capabilities on human exploration missions. To mitigate this risk, the ExMC MDA project addresses the technical limitations identified in ExMC Gap Med 07: We do not have the capability to comprehensively process medically-relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions. This gap identifies that the current International Space Station (ISS) medical data management includes a combination of data collection and distribution methods that are minimally integrated with on-board medical devices and systems. Furthermore, there are variety of data sources and methods of data collection. For an exploration mission, the seamless management of such data will enable an increasingly autonomous crew than the current ISS paradigm. The MDA will develop capabilities that support automated data collection, and the necessary functionality and challenges in executing a self-contained medical system that approaches crew health care delivery without assistance from ground support. To attain this goal, the first year of the MDA project focused on reducing technical risk, developing documentation and instituting iterative development processes that established the basis for the first version of MDA software (or Test Bed 1). Test Bed 1 is based on a nominal operations scenario authored by the ExMC Element Scientist. This narrative was decomposed into a Concept of Operations that formed the basis for Test Bed 1 requirements. These requirements were successfully vetted through the MDA Test Bed 1 System Requirements Review, which permitted the MDA project to begin software code development and component integration. This paper highlights the MDA objectives, development processes, and accomplishments, and identifies the fiscal year 2017 milestones and deliverables in the upcoming year.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bashor, B.S.

The major resources used by the Bureau of Environment, and Environmental Epidemiology (EEP) for risk assessment are: the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health and Environmental Effects Summary Table (HEAST), Agency for Toxic Substances and disease Registry (ATSDR) Toxicological Profiles, databases at the National Library of Medicine (NLM), World Health Organization (WHO) ENvironmental Criteria, and documents that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published on Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) risk assessment activities. The Risk Assessment Review has been helpful in providing information about availability of new documents or information. No systematic method has been made availablemore » to us to locate information resources. IRIS User`s Support has been helpful in making appropriate and timely referrals. Most other EPA resources were located by serendipity and persistence. The CERCLA methodology for risk assessments is being used in environmental programs, and at present, one person is responsible for all risk assessment activities in the department, but plans are underway to train one or two people from each program area. 2 figs.« less

Job stress models for predicting burnout syndrome: a review.

PubMed

Chirico, Francesco

2016-01-01

In Europe, the Council Directive 89/391 for improvement of workers' safety and health has emphasized the importance of addressing all occupational risk factors, and hence also psychosocial and organizational risk factors. Nevertheless, the construct of "work-related stress" elaborated from EU-OSHA is not totally corresponding with the "psychosocial" risk, that is a broader category of risk, comprising various and different psychosocial risk factors. The term "burnout", without any binding definition, tries to integrate symptoms as well as cause of the burnout process. In Europe, the most important methods developed for the work related stress risk assessment are based on the Cox's transactional model of job stress. Nevertheless, there are more specific models for predicting burnout syndrome. This literature review provides an overview of job burnout, highlighting the most important models of job burnout, such as the Job Strain, the Effort/Reward Imbalance and the Job Demands-Resources models. The difference between these models and the Cox's model of job stress is explored.

Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

Treesearch

Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht

2011-01-01

We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew

2015-01-01

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Integrating the Ergonomics Techniques with Multi Criteria Decision Making as a New Approach for Risk Management: An Assessment of Repetitive Tasks -Entropy Case Study.

PubMed

Khandan, Mohammad; Nili, Majid; Koohpaei, Alireza; Mosaferchi, Saeedeh

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the health work decision makers need to analyze a huge amount of data and consider many conflicting evaluation criteria and sub-criteria. Therefore, an ergonomic evaluation in the work environment in order to the control occupational disorders is considered as the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. In this study, the ergonomic risks factors, which may influence health, were evaluated in a manufacturing company in 2014. Then entropy method was applied to prioritize the different risk factors. This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach and 13 tasks were included from total number of employees who were working in the seven halls of an ark opal manufacturing (240). Required information was gathered by the demographic questionnaire and Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) method for repetitive task assessment. In addition, entropy was used to prioritize the risk factors based on the ergonomic control needs. The total exposure score based on the ART method calculated was equal to 30.07 ±12.43. Data analysis illustrated that 179 cases (74.6% of tasks) were in the high level of risk area and 13.8% were in the medium level of risk. ART- entropy results revealed that based on the weighted factors, higher value belongs to grip factor and the lowest value was related to neck and hand posture and duration. Based on the limited financial resources, it seems that MCDM in many challenging situations such as control procedures and priority approaches could be used successfully. Other MCDM methods for evaluating and prioritizing the ergonomic problems are recommended.

An integrated optimization method for river water quality management and risk analysis in a rural system.

PubMed

Liu, J; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Zeng, X T; Nie, S

2016-01-01

In this study, an interval-stochastic-based risk analysis (RSRA) method is developed for supporting river water quality management in a rural system under uncertainty (i.e., uncertainties exist in a number of system components as well as their interrelationships). The RSRA method is effective in risk management and policy analysis, particularly when the inputs (such as allowable pollutant discharge and pollutant discharge rate) are expressed as probability distributions and interval values. Moreover, decision-makers' attitudes towards system risk can be reflected using a restricted resource measure by controlling the variability of the recourse cost. The RSRA method is then applied to a real case of water quality management in the Heshui River Basin (a rural area of China), where chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and soil loss are selected as major indicators to identify the water pollution control strategies. Results reveal that uncertainties and risk attitudes have significant effects on both pollutant discharge and system benefit. A high risk measure level can lead to a reduced system benefit; however, this reduction also corresponds to raised system reliability. Results also disclose that (a) agriculture is the dominant contributor to soil loss, TN, and TP loads, and abatement actions should be mainly carried out for paddy and dry farms; (b) livestock husbandry is the main COD discharger, and abatement measures should be mainly conducted for poultry farm; (c) fishery accounts for a high percentage of TN, TP, and COD discharges but a has low percentage of overall net benefit, and it may be beneficial to cease fishery activities in the basin. The findings can facilitate the local authority in identifying desired pollution control strategies with the tradeoff between socioeconomic development and environmental sustainability.

Computer-Assisted Diabetes Risk Assessment and Education (CADRAE) for Medically Vulnerable Populations in the Middle East: a Novel and Practical Method for Prevention

PubMed Central

Rowther, Armaan A.; Dykzeul, Brad; Billimek, John; Abuhassan, Deyana; Anderson, Craig; Lotfipour, Shahram

2016-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes in the Middle East is increasing rapidly due to urbanization, reduced levels of physical activity, and a nutritional transition toward increased consumption of fats and refined carbohydrates. Preventive strategies are of paramount importance to stemming the tide. Portable touch-screen computer technology may hold an answer for alleviating the burdens of cost, time, and training that limit the implementation of diabetes risk screening and intervention, especially among refugees and other vulnerable populations. The Computer-Assisted Diabetes Risk Assessment and Education (CADRAE) Arabic-language intervention program is proposed as a model method for practicing proactive type 2 diabetes prevention in resource-limited settings of the Middle East that combines the efficiency of risk-score screening methods, the advantages of portable computer interface, and the spirit of brief motivational interviewing. This paper aims to describe the theory and novel design of CADRAE—introduced at the Noor Al Hussein Foundation's Institute of Family Health in January 2014—as well as discuss opportunities and challenges for its implementation and evaluation in primary or emergency care settings. Features of CADRAE are elucidated in detail, including development, translation, conceptual framework, theoretical basis, method of risk assessment, brief intervention style, definition of outcomes, requirements for implementation, and potential means of evaluation and quality improvement. CADRAE offers the first example of portable computer technology integrating diabetes risk screening with behavior change counseling tailored for an Arabic-speaking population of mostly refugees and could offer a valuable model for researchers and policy makers of the Middle East as well as other resource-limited settings. PMID:26835181

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS Acknowlegement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Case management for at-risk elderly patients in the English integrated care pilots: observational study of staff and patient experience and secondary care utilisation

PubMed Central

Roland, Martin; Lewis, Richard; Steventon, Adam; Abel, Gary; Adams, John; Bardsley, Martin; Brereton, Laura; Chitnis, Xavier; Conklin, Annalijn; Staetsky, Laura; Tunkel, Sarah; Ling, Tom

2012-01-01

Introduction In 2009, the English Department of Health appointed 16 integrated care pilots which aimed to provide better integrated care. We report the quantitative results from a multi-method evaluation of six of the demonstration projects which used risk profiling tools to identify older people at risk of emergency hospital admission, combined with intensive case management for people identified as at risk. The interventions focused mainly on delivery system redesign and improved clinical information systems, two key elements of Wagner’s Chronic Care Model. Methods Questionnaires to staff and patients. Difference-in-differences analysis of secondary care utilisation using data on 3646 patients and 17,311 matched controls, and changes in overall secondary care utilisation. Results Most staff thought that care for their patients had improved. More patients reported having a care plan but they found it significantly harder to see a doctor or nurse of their choice and felt less involved in decisions about their care. Case management interventions were associated with a 9% increase in emergency admissions. We found some evidence of imbalance between cases and controls which could have biased this estimate, but simulations of the possible effect of unobserved confounders showed that it was very unlikely that the sites achieved their goal of reducing emergency admissions. However, we found significant reductions of 21% and 22% in elective admissions and outpatient attendance in the six months following an intervention, and overall inpatient and outpatient costs were significantly reduced by 9% during this period. Area level analyses of whole practice populations suggested that overall outpatient attendances were significantly reduced by 5% two years after the start of the case management schemes. Conclusion Case management may result in improvements in some aspects of care and has the potential to reduce secondary care costs. However, to improve patient experience, case management approaches need to be introduced in a way which respects patients’ wishes, for example the ability to see a familiar doctor or nurse. PMID:23593045

More than what the eye can see: the emotional journey and experience of powerlessness of integrated care service users and their carers

PubMed Central

Boudioni, Markella; Hallett, Nina; Lora, Cristina; Couchman, Wendy

2015-01-01

Purpose This article presents the emotional journey and experience of powerlessness of integrated care service users and carers. Materials and methods The experiences of seven integrated care service users and carers affected by complex conditions in a London borough were captured as video stories. The integrated care service coordinated a system of health and social care: primary care, community matrons, social workers, and the voluntary sector. The service was designed to respond to identified cases of high-risk individuals with long-term, multiple, and age-related conditions needing preventive interventions. The video stories were analyzed by researchers in collaboration with service users using a visual thematic qualitative approach. This report is part of an independent analysis of the integrated care service evaluation that used the experience-based codesign model. Results The findings are presented in the respective contexts of people with complex conditions and their carers. The overwhelming feelings and emotions of both were loss of control and power throughout their emotional journey, with family carers adopting a protective attitude toward the patients. Their experience of powerlessness was variable throughout their emotional journey. They were affected more strongly when in need of extra help and support and while they were undergoing the process of receiving extra services. When they were receiving help and support outside and within hospitals, some participants were empowered, gaining skills and knowledge by being provided with the mechanisms to cope with their condition at present and in the future. Conclusion Feelings of powerlessness were very common among integrated care service users and their carers. Powerless/empowerment has been poorly investigated to date. Visual methods and collaborative visual analysis with service users have proved to be powerful methods too, but have been rarely reported. PMID:25848232

Evaluation of UK Integrated Care Pilots: research protocol

PubMed Central

Ling, Tom; Bardsley, Martin; Adams, John; Lewis, Richard; Roland, Martin

2010-01-01

Background In response to concerns that the needs of the aging population for well-integrated care were increasing, the English National Health Service (NHS) appointed 16 Integrated Care Pilots following a national competition. The pilots have a range of aims including development of new organisational structures to support integration, changes in staff roles, reducing unscheduled emergency hospital admissions, reduced length of hospital stay, increasing patient satisfaction, and reducing cost. This paper describes the evaluation of the initiative which has been commissioned. Study design and data collection methods A mixed methods approach has been adopted including interviews with staff and patients, non-participant observation of meetings, structured written feedback from sites, questionnaires to patients and staff, and analysis of routinely collected hospital utilisation data for patients/service users. The qualitative analysis aims to identify the approaches taken to integration by the sites, the benefits which result, the context in which benefits have resulted, and the mechanisms by which they occur. Methods of analysis The quantitative analysis adopts a ‘difference in differences’ approach comparing health care utilisation before and after the intervention with risk-matched controls. The qualitative data analysis adopts a ‘theory of change’ approach in which we triangulate data from the quantitative analysis with qualitative data in order to describe causal effects (what happens when an independent variable changes) and causal mechanisms (what connects causes to their effects). An economic analysis will identify what incremental resources are required to make integration succeed and how they can be combined efficiently to produce better outcomes for patients. Conclusion This evaluation will produce a portfolio of evidence aimed at strengthening the evidence base for integrated care, and in particular identifying the context in which interventions are likely to be effective. These data will support a series of evaluation judgements aimed at reducing uncertainties about the role of integrated care in improving the efficient and effective delivery of healthcare. PMID:20922068

77 FR 4319 - Notification of Two Public Teleconferences of the Science Advisory Board Ecological Processes and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-27

..., ``Integrating Ecological Assessment and Decision-Making at EPA, 2011 RAF Ecological Assessment Action Plan... the EPA Risk Assessment Forum (RAF) document, ``Integrating Ecological Assessment and Decision-Making... Ecological Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision-Making'' (EPA-SAB-08-002), the EPA Risk Assessment Forum...

Development and Validation of a Primary Care-Based Family Health History and Decision Support Program (MeTree)

PubMed Central

Orlando, Lori A.; Buchanan, Adam H.; Hahn, Susan E.; Christianson, Carol A.; Powell, Karen P.; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Chesnut, Blair; Blach, Colette; Due, Barbara; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S.; Henrich, Vincent C.

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION Family health history is a strong predictor of disease risk. To reduce the morbidity and mortality of many chronic diseases, risk-stratified evidence-based guidelines strongly encourage the collection and synthesis of family health history to guide selection of primary prevention strategies. However, the collection and synthesis of such information is not well integrated into clinical practice. To address barriers to collection and use of family health histories, the Genomedical Connection developed and validated MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing family health history collection and clinical decision support tool. MeTree is designed for integration into primary care practices as part of the genomic medicine model for primary care. METHODS We describe the guiding principles, operational characteristics, algorithm development, and coding used to develop MeTree. Validation was performed through stakeholder cognitive interviewing, a genetic counseling pilot program, and clinical practice pilot programs in 2 community-based primary care clinics. RESULTS Stakeholder feedback resulted in changes to MeTree’s interface and changes to the phrasing of clinical decision support documents. The pilot studies resulted in the identification and correction of coding errors and the reformatting of clinical decision support documents. MeTree’s strengths in comparison with other tools are its seamless integration into clinical practice and its provision of action-oriented recommendations guided by providers’ needs. LIMITATIONS The tool was validated in a small cohort. CONCLUSION MeTree can be integrated into primary care practices to help providers collect and synthesize family health history information from patients with the goal of improving adherence to risk-stratified evidence-based guidelines. PMID:24044145

Safe engineering of CAR T cells for adoptive cell therapy of cancer using long-term episomal gene transfer.

PubMed

Jin, Chuan; Fotaki, Grammatiki; Ramachandran, Mohanraj; Nilsson, Berith; Essand, Magnus; Yu, Di

2016-07-01

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is a new successful treatment for refractory B-cell leukemia. Successful therapeutic outcome depends on long-term expression of CAR transgene in T cells, which is achieved by delivering transgene using integrating gamma retrovirus (RV) or lentivirus (LV). However, uncontrolled RV/LV integration in host cell genomes has the potential risk of causing insertional mutagenesis. Herein, we describe a novel episomal long-term cell engineering method using non-integrating lentiviral (NILV) vector containing a scaffold/matrix attachment region (S/MAR) element, for either expression of transgenes or silencing of target genes. The insertional events of this vector into the genome of host cells are below detection level. CD19 CAR T cells engineered with a NILV-S/MAR vector have similar levels of CAR expression as T cells engineered with an integrating LV vector, even after numerous rounds of cell division. NILV-S/MAR-engineered CD19 CAR T cells exhibited similar cytotoxic capacity upon CD19(+) target cell recognition as LV-engineered T cells and are as effective in controlling tumor growth in vivo We propose that NILV-S/MAR vectors are superior to current options as they enable long-term transgene expression without the risk of insertional mutagenesis and genotoxicity. © 2016 The Authors. Published under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license.

Management of Service Projects in Support of Space Flight Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Love, J.

2009-01-01

Goal:To provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration . [HRP-47051] Specific Objectives: 1) Develop capabilities, necessary countermeasures, and technologies in support of human space exploration, focusing on mitigating the highest risks to human health and performance. 2) Define and improve human spaceflight medical, environmental, and human factors standards. 3) Develop technologies that serve to reduce medical and environmental risks, to reduce human systems resource requirements (mass, volume, power, data, etc.) and to ensure effective human-system integration across exploration systems. 4) Ensure maintenance of Agency core competencies necessary to enable risk reduction in the following areas: A. Space medicine B. Physiological and behavioral effects of long duration spaceflight on the human body C. Space environmental effects, including radiation, on human health and performance D. Space "human factors" [HRP-47051]. Service projects can form integral parts of research-based project-focused programs to provide specialized functions. Traditional/classic project management methodologies and agile approaches are not mutually exclusive paradigms. Agile strategies can be combined with traditional methods and applied in the management of service projects functioning in changing environments. Creative collaborations afford a mechanism for mitigation of constrained resource limitations.

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment.

PubMed

Linkov, Igor; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura; Allen, Craig R; Arnott, James C; Bellini, Emanuele; Coaffee, Jon; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Hatfield, Kirk; Hyde, Iain; Hynes, William; Jovanovic, Aleksandar; Kasperson, Roger; Katzenberger, John; Keys, Patrick W; Lambert, James H; Moss, Richard; Murdoch, Peter S; Palma-Oliveira, Jose; Pulwarty, Roger S; Sands, Dale; Thomas, Edward A; Tye, Mari R; Woods, David

2018-04-25

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-01-01

Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

JCL Implementation On A Human Spaceflight Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulpa, Vyga; Karpowich, Mike; Abel, Diana; Archiable, Wes; Carson, William

2013-01-01

Joint Confidence Level (JCL) analysis focuses on the integration of traditionally stove-piped programmatic components (schedule, cost and risk) to establish projected resource and schedule requirements at various confidence levels and to identify programmatic cost and schedule risk drivers. SLS Program consists of multiple Prime Contractors managed by independent SLS Elements which are integrated using SE&I and Program Management. SLS further integrates with GSDO and MPCV through ESD integrated working groups.

Surveying hospital network structure in New York State: how are they structured?

PubMed

Nauenberg, E; Brewer, C S

2000-01-01

We determine the most common network structures in New York state. The taxonomy employed uses three structural dimensions: integration, complexity, and risk-sharing between organizations. Based on a survey conducted in 1996, the most common type of network (26.4 percent) had medium levels of integration, medium or high levels of complexity, and some risk-sharing. Also common were networks with low levels of integration, low levels of complexity, and no risk-sharing (22.1 percent).

Risk Quantification of Systems Engineering Documents Improves Probability of DOD Project Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

comprehensive risk model for DoD milestone review documentation as well as recommended changes to the Capability Maturity Model Integration ( CMMI ) Project...Milestone Documentation, Project Planning, Rational Frame, Political Frame, CMMI Project Planning Process Area, CMMI Risk Management Process Area...well as recommended changes to the Capability Maturity Model Integration ( CMMI ) Project Planning and Risk Management process areas. The intent is to

Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

2016-01-01

Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

The integrated effect of moderate exercise on coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Mathews, Marc J; Mathews, Edward H; Mathews, George E

Moderate exercise is associated with a lower risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). A suitable integrated model of the CHD pathogenetic pathways relevant to moderate exercise may help to elucidate this association. Such a model is currently not available in the literature. An integrated model of CHD was developed and used to investigate pathogenetic pathways of importance between exercise and CHD. Using biomarker relative-risk data, the pathogenetic effects are representable as measurable effects based on changes in biomarkers. The integrated model provides insight into higherorder interactions underlying the associations between CHD and moderate exercise. A novel 'connection graph' was developed, which simplifies these interactions. It quantitatively illustrates the relationship between moderate exercise and various serological biomarkers of CHD. The connection graph of moderate exercise elucidates all the possible integrated actions through which risk reduction may occur. An integrated model of CHD provides a summary of the effects of moderate exercise on CHD. It also shows the importance of each CHD pathway that moderate exercise influences. The CHD risk-reducing effects of exercise appear to be primarily driven by decreased inflammation and altered metabolism.

Internal relationship between symptomatic venous thromboembolism and risk factors: up-regulation of integrin β1, β2 and β3 levels

PubMed Central

Duan, Qianglin; Wang, Lemin; Yang, Fan; Li, Jue; Song, Yanli; Gong, Zhu; Li, Guiyuan; Song, Haoming; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Shen, Zugang; Dart, Anthony

2015-01-01

Background: To compare different expression of core proteins among venous thromboembolism (VTE) and those with risk factor groups and analyze the relative risk for VTE after integrating integrin β1, β2 and β3 expression. Methods: A total of 1006 subjects were recruited and divided into VTE group, risk factor groups and control (non- risk factor) group. Flow cytometry was performed to detect the expression of integrin β1, β2 and β3. The relative risk for VTE was evaluated with independent, parallel and serial methods. Results: The expression of integrin β1 increased markedly in VTE patients, and those with risk factors (acute infection, malignancy, and autoimmune diseases), respectively (P < 0.001 or 0.01). The expression of integrin β1 in trauma/surgery group was not significantly different with control group (P > 0.05). The expression of integrin β2 or β3 significantly increased in VTE group, but that in risk factor groups was not significantly increased (P > 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed the trauma/surgery groups had no significantly increased risk for VTE. Conclusions: VTE group patients have significantly increased expression of integrin β1, β2 and β3, and risk factor groups (acute infection, malignancy and autoimmune disease) have significantly increased expression of integrin β1. The significant increase in integrin β2, β3 expression is a marker differentiating of VTE group patients with other risk factor groups. Trauma/surgery group has no increased expression of integrin β1, β2 and β3 as other risk factors. Thus, that trauma/surgery may be not the “true” risk factor for VTE. PMID:26045901

The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

PubMed

Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

2016-04-01

A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

2016-04-01

It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some sectors hydrological data was lacking to make a reliable estimate of drought return periods. By 2021, the Netherlands Government aims to agree on the water supply service levels, which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period. The Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, representatives of the regional water boards and Rijkswaterstaat (operating the main water system) as well as several consultants and research institutes are important stakeholders for further development of the method, evaluation of cases and the development of a quantitative risk-informed decision-making tool.

A Proactive and Top-Down Approach to Managing Risk at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

Our ultimate goal is to manage risk in a holistic and coherent fashion across the Agency: a) The RIDM process is intended to risk-inform direction-setting decisions. c) The CRM process is intended to manage risk associated with the implementation of baseline performance requirements. Currently we are working on: a) Enhancements to the CRM process. b) Better integration of the RIDM and CRM processes. c) Better integration of institutional risk considerations into RM framework.

Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.

This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalizedmore » cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.« less

Safety leadership and systems thinking: application and evaluation of a Risk Management Framework in the mining industry.

PubMed

Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Horberry, Tim

2017-10-01

Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safety in high-risk industries. This article contends that applying systems-thinking methods to examine safety leadership can support improved learning from incidents. A case study analysis was undertaken of a large-scale mining landslide incident in which no injuries or fatalities were incurred. A multi-method approach was adopted, in which the Critical Decision Method, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework and Accimap method were applied to examine the safety leadership decisions and actions which enabled the safe outcome. The approach enabled Rasmussen's predictions regarding safety and performance to be examined in the safety leadership context, with findings demonstrating the distribution of safety leadership across leader and system levels, and the presence of vertical integration as key to supporting the successful safety outcome. In doing so, the findings also demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to examine and learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. The implications, including future research directions, are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a case study analysis, in which systems-thinking methods are applied to the examination of safety leadership decisions and actions during a large-scale mining landslide incident. The findings establish safety leadership as a systems phenomenon, and furthermore, demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. Implications, including future research directions, are discussed.

Integrated exposure assessment of sewage workers to genotoxicants: an urinary biomarker approach and oxidative stress evaluation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Sewage workers are exposed to multiple chemicals among which many are suspected genotoxicants. Therefore, they might incur DNA damage and oxidative stress. We aimed to explore integrated urinary biomarkers, assessing the overall urine genotoxicity by in vitro comet and micronucleus assays and measuring urinary 8-oxo-2'-deoxyguanosine. Methods During three consecutive working days, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds were sampled in workplace air of 34 sewage and 30 office workers, as indicators of airborne exposure. The last day, subjects collected their 24 hours urine. Genotoxicity of urinary extracts was assessed by comet and micronucleus assays on a HepG2 cell line. Using competitive enzymatic immunoassay we evaluated the 24 hours urinary 8-oxo-2'-deoxyguanosine excretion. Benzo(a)pyrene toxicity equivalent factors and inhalation unit risk for Benzo(a)pyrene and benzene were used to give an estimate of cancer risk levels. Results Workplace air concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (e.g. 23.7 [range 2.4-104.6] ng.m-3 for fluoranthene) and volatile organic compounds (e.g. 19.1 ± 2.9 [standard error] μ.m-3 for benzene) were elevated in sewage compared to office workplaces (P < 0.01) and corresponded to an increased lifetime cancer risk. The urinary extracts of sewage workers showed higher genotoxicity (P < 0.001) than office workers. Conclusions The integrated and non-specific urinary biomarkers of exposure showed that sewage workers experience exposure to mixtures of genotoxicants in the workplace. PMID:21435260

Low-Cost, Class D Testing of Spacecraft Photovoltaic Systems Can Reduce Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forgione, Joshua B.; Kojima, Gilbert K.; Hanel, Robert; Mallinson, Mark

2014-01-01

The end-to-end verification of a spacecraft photovoltaic power generation system requires light! A lowcost, portable, and end-to-end photovoltaic-system test appropriate for NASA's new generation of Class D missions is presented. High risk, low-cost, and quick-turn satellites rarely have the resources to execute the traditional approaches from higher-class (A-C) missions. The Class D approach, as demonstrated on the Lunar Atmospheric and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE), utilizes a portable, metalhalide, theatre lamp for an end-to-end photovoltaic system test. While not as precise and comprehensive as the traditional Large Area Pulsed Solar Simulator (LAPSS) test, the LADEE method leverages minimal resources into an ongoing assessment program that can be applied through numerous stages of the mission. The project takes a true Class D approach in assessing the technical value of a costly, highfidelity performance test versus a simpler approach with less programmatic risk. The resources required are a fraction of that for a LAPSS test, and is easy to repeat due to its portability. Further, the test equipment can be handed down to future projects without building an on-site facility. At the vanguard of Class D missions, the LADEE team frequently wrestled with and challenged the status quo. The philosophy of risk avoidance at all cost, typical to Class A-C missions, simply could not be executed. This innovative and simple testing solution is contextualized to NASA Class D programs and a specific risk encountered during development of the LADEE Electrical Power System (EPS). Selection of the appropriate lamp and safety concerns are discussed, with examples of test results. Combined with the vendor's panellevel data and periodic inspection, the method ensures system integrity from Integration and Test (I&T) through launch. Following launch, mission operations tools are utilized to assess system performance based on a scant amount of available data.

Modeling trade-offs between plant fiber and toxins: a framework for quantifying risks perceived by foraging herbivores.

PubMed

Camp, Meghan J; Shipley, Lisa A; Johnson, Timothy R; Forbey, Jennifer Sorensen; Rachlow, Janet L; Crowell, Miranda M

2015-12-01

When selecting habitats, herbivores must weigh multiple risks, such as predation, starvation, toxicity, and thermal stress, forcing them to make fitness trade-offs. Here, we applied the method of paired comparisons (PC) to investigate how herbivores make trade-offs between habitat features that influence selection of food patches. The method of PC measures utility and the inverse of utility, relative risk, and makes trade-offs and indifferences explicit by forcing animals to make choices between two patches with different types of risks. Using a series of paired-choice experiments to titrate the equivalence curve and find the marginal rate of substitution for one risk over the other, we evaluated how toxin-tolerant (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis) and fiber-tolerant (mountain cottontail rabbit Sylviagus nuttallii) herbivores differed in their hypothesized perceived risk of fiber and toxins in food. Pygmy rabbits were willing to consume nearly five times more of the toxin 1,8-cineole in their diets to avoid consuming higher levels of fiber than were mountain cottontails. Fiber posed a greater relative risk for pygmy rabbits than cottontails and cineole a greater risk for cottontails than pygmy rabbits. Our flexible modeling approach can be used to (1) quantify how animals evaluate and trade off multiple habitat attributes when the benefits and risks are difficult to quantify, and (2) integrate diverse risks that influence fitness and habitat selection into a single index of habitat value. This index potentially could be applied to landscapes to predict habitat selection across several scales.

Visualization of episomal and integrated Epstein-Barr virus DNA by fiber fluorescence in situ hybridization.

PubMed

Reisinger, Jürgen; Rumpler, Silvia; Lion, Thomas; Ambros, Peter F

2006-04-01

For many Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated malignancies, it is still a matter of controversy whether infected cells harbor episomal or chromosomally integrated EBV genomes or both. It is well established that the expression of EBV genes per se carries oncogenic potential, but the discrimination between episomal and integrated forms is of great relevance because integration events can contribute to the oncogenic properties of EBV, whereas host cells that exclusively harbor viral episomes may not carry the risks mediated by chromosomal integration. This notion prompted us to establish a reliable technique that not only allows to unequivocally discriminate episomal from integrated EBV DNA, but also provides detailed insights into the genomic organization of the virus. Here, we show that dynamic molecular combing of host cell DNA combined with fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using EBV-specific DNA probes facilitate unambiguous discrimination of episomal from integrated viral DNA. Furthermore, the detection of highly elongated internal repeat 1 (IR1) sequences provides evidence that this method permits detection of major genomic alterations within the EBV genome. Thus, fiber FISH may also provide valuable insights into the genomic organization of viral genomes other than EBV.

Learning from the experience: preliminary results of integration experiments within PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparslan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybulia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Balasco, M.; Zakharenkova, I.; Ouzounov, D.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.

2012-04-01

PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) EU-FP7 project is devoted to demonstrate - integrating different observational data, comparing and improving different data analysis methods - how it is possible to progressively increase reliability of short term seismic risk assessment. Three main testing area were selected (Italy, Turkey and Sakhalin ) in order to concentrate observations and integration efforts starting with a learning phase on selected event in the past devoted to identify the most suitable parameters, observations technologies, data analysis algorithms. To this aim events offering major possibilities (variety) of integration were particularly considered - Abruzzo EQ (April 6th 2009 Mw 6.3) for Italy, Elazig EQ (March 8th 2010 Mw 6.1) for Turkey and Nevelsk EQ (August 2nd 2007 Mw 6.2) for Sakhalin - without excluding other significant events occurred during 2011 like the ones of Tōhoku in Japan and Van in Turkey. For these events, different ground (80 radon and 29 spring water stations in Turkey region, 2 magneto-telluric in Italy) and satellite (18 different systems) based observations, 11 data analysis methods, for 7 measured parameters, have been compared and integrated. Results achieved by applying a validation/confutation approach devoted to evaluate the presence/absence of anomalous space-time transients in single and/or integrated observation time-series will be discussed also in comparison with results independently achieved by other authors.

The role of family planning in achieving safe pregnancy for serodiscordant couples: commentary from the United States government's interagency task force on family planning and HIV service integration.

PubMed

Mason, Jennifer; Medley, Amy; Yeiser, Sarah; Nightingale, Vienna R; Mani, Nithya; Sripipatana, Tabitha; Abutu, Andrew; Johnston, Beverly; Watts, D Heather

2017-03-08

People living with HIV (PLHIV) have the right to exercise voluntary choices about their health, including their reproductive health. This commentary discusses the integral role that family planning (FP) plays in helping PLHIV, including those in serodiscordant relationships, achieve conception safely. The United States (US) President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is committed to meeting the reproductive health needs of PLHIV by improving their access to voluntary FP counselling and services, including prevention of unintended pregnancy and counselling for safer conception. Inclusion of preconception care and counselling (PCC) as part of routine HIV services is critical to preventing unintended pregnancies and perinatal infections among PLHIV. PLHIV not desiring a current pregnancy should be provided with information and counselling on all available FP methods and then either given the method onsite or through a facilitated referral process. PLHIV, who desire children should be offered risk reduction counselling, support for HIV status disclosure and partner testing, information on safer conception options to reduce the risk of HIV transmission to the partner and the importance of adhering to antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy and breastfeeding to reduce the risk of vertical transmission to the infant. Integration of PCC, HIV and FP services at the same location is recommended to improve access to these services for PLHIV. Other considerations to be addressed include the social and structural context, the health system capacity to offer these services, and stigma and discrimination of providers. Evaluation of innovative service delivery models for delivering PCC services is needed, including provision in community-based settings. The US Government will continue to partner with local organizations, Ministries of Health, the private sector, civil society, multilateral and bilateral donors, and other key stakeholders to strengthen both the policy and programme environment to ensure that all PLHIV and serodiscordant couples have access to FP services, including prevention of unintended pregnancy and safer conception counselling.

Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

PubMed

Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

2007-09-14

Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

PubMed

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

A review on risk assessment techniques for hydraulic fracturing water and produced water management implemented in onshore unconventional oil and gas production.

PubMed

Torres, Luisa; Yadav, Om Prakash; Khan, Eakalak

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to review different risk assessment techniques applicable to onshore unconventional oil and gas production to determine the risks to water quantity and quality associated with hydraulic fracturing and produced water management. Water resources could be at risk without proper management of water, chemicals, and produced water. Previous risk assessments in the oil and gas industry were performed from an engineering perspective leaving aside important social factors. Different risk assessment methods and techniques are reviewed and summarized to select the most appropriate one to perform a holistic and integrated analysis of risks at every stage of the water life cycle. Constraints to performing risk assessment are identified including gaps in databases, which require more advanced techniques such as modeling. Discussions on each risk associated with water and produced water management, mitigation strategies, and future research direction are presented. Further research on risks in onshore unconventional oil and gas will benefit not only the U.S. but also other countries with shale oil and gas resources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphological hazards and environmental impact: Assessment and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panizza, Mario

In five sections the author develops the methods for the integration of geomorphological concepts into Environmental Impact and Mapping. The first section introduces the concepts of Impact and Risk through the relationships between Geomorphological Environment and Anthropical Element. The second section proposes a methodology for the determination of Geomorphological Hazard and the identification of Geomorphological Risk. The third section synthesizes the procedure for the compilation of a Geomorphological Hazards Map. The fourth section outlines the concepts of Geomorphological Resource Assessment for the analysis of the Environmental Impact. The fifth section considers the contribution of geomorphological studies and mapping in the procedure for Environmental Impact Assessment.

Biological Bases of Space Radiation Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

In this session, Session JP4, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Hematopoiesis Dynamics in Irradiated Mammals, Mathematical Modeling; Estimating Health Risks in Space from Galactic Cosmic Rays; Failure of Heavy Ions to Affect Physiological Integrity of the Corneal Endothelial Monolayer; Application of an Unbiased Two-Gel CDNA Library Screening Method to Expression Monitoring of Genes in Irradiated Versus Control Cells; Detection of Radiation-Induced DNA Strand Breaks in Mammalian Cells By Enzymatic Post-Labeling; Evaluation of Bleomycin-Induced Chromosome Aberrations Under Microgravity Conditions in Human Lymphocytes, Using "Fish" Techniques; Technical Description of the Space Exposure Biology Assembly Seba on ISS; and Cytogenetic Research in Biological Dosimetry.

Big Data and Predictive Analytics: Applications in the Care of Children.

PubMed

Suresh, Srinivasan

2016-04-01

Emerging changes in the United States' healthcare delivery model have led to renewed interest in data-driven methods for managing quality of care. Analytics (Data plus Information) plays a key role in predictive risk assessment, clinical decision support, and various patient throughput measures. This article reviews the application of a pediatric risk score, which is integrated into our hospital's electronic medical record, and provides an early warning sign for clinical deterioration. Dashboards that are a part of disease management systems, are a vital tool in peer benchmarking, and can help in reducing unnecessary variations in care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk-based prospective payment system that integrates patient, hospital and national costs.

PubMed

Siegel, C; Jones, K; Laska, E; Meisner, M; Lin, S

1992-05-01

We suggest that a desirable form for prospective payment for inpatient care is hospital average cost plus a linear combination of individual patient and national average cost. When the coefficients are chosen to minimize mean squared error loss between payment and costs, the payment has efficiency and access incentives. The coefficient multiplying patient costs is a hospital specific measure of financial risk of the patient. Access is promoted since providers receive higher reimbursements for risky, high cost patients. Historical cost data can be used to obtain estimates of payment parameters. The method is applied to Medicare data on psychiatric inpatients.

Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, M.

2003-04-01

Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

Absence of evidence for increase in risk for autism or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder following antidepressant exposure during pregnancy: a replication study.

PubMed

Castro, V M; Kong, S W; Clements, C C; Brady, R; Kaimal, A J; Doyle, A E; Robinson, E B; Churchill, S E; Kohane, I S; Perlis, R H

2016-01-05

Multiple studies have examined the risk of prenatal antidepressant exposure and risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), with inconsistent results. Precisely estimating such risk, if any, is of great importance in light of the need to balance such risk with the benefit of depression and anxiety treatment. We developed a method to integrate data from multiple New England health systems, matching offspring and maternal health data in electronic health records to characterize diagnoses and medication exposure. Children with ASD or ADHD were matched 1:3 with children without neurodevelopmental disorders. Association between maternal antidepressant exposure and ASD or ADHD liability was examined using logistic regression, adjusting for potential sociodemographic and psychiatric confounding variables. In new cohorts of 1245 ASD cases and 1701 ADHD cases, along with age-, sex- and socioeconomic status matched controls, neither disorder was significantly associated with prenatal antidepressant exposure in crude or adjusted models (adjusted odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.50-1.54 for ASD; 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.69 for ADHD). Pre-pregnancy antidepressant exposure significantly increased risk for both disorders. These results suggest that prior reports of association between prenatal antidepressant exposure and neurodevelopmental disease are likely to represent a false-positive finding, which may arise in part through confounding by indication. They further demonstrate the potential to integrate data across electronic health records studies spanning multiple health systems to enable efficient pharmacovigilance investigation.

The Tool for Designing Engineering Systems Using a New Optimization Method Based on a Stochastic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

The conventional optimization methods were based on a deterministic approach, since their purpose is to find out an exact solution. However, these methods have initial condition dependence and risk of falling into local solution. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method based on a concept of path integral method used in quantum mechanics. The method obtains a solutions as an expected value (stochastic average) using a stochastic process. The advantages of this method are not to be affected by initial conditions and not to need techniques based on experiences. We applied the new optimization method to a design of the hang glider. In this problem, not only the hang glider design but also its flight trajectory were optimized. The numerical calculation results showed that the method has a sufficient performance.

Household-Level Coastal Adaptation and Its Drivers: A Systematic Case Study Review.

PubMed

Koerth, Jana; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Hinkel, Jochen

2017-04-01

Evidence-based information on household-level adaptation is an important element of integrated management of vulnerable coastal regions. A growing number of empirical studies deal with household-level adaptation at the coast in different regions. This article provides a systematic review of these studies. We analyze studies according to how households in different parts of the world are currently adapting, or how they are intending to adapt, and identify explanatory factors for adaptation behavior and intention. We find that households implement a broad range of adaptation measures and that adaptation behavior is explained by individual factors such as socioeconomic and cognitive variables, experience, and perceived responsibilities. Nonpersonal characteristics have also been used to explain adaptation behavior and intention but have not been extensively investigated. Few studies employ qualitative research methods and use inductive approaches as well as models stemming from behavioral economics. Our findings suggest that coastal risk management policies should communicate the efficacy of household-level adaptation, in addition to information about flood risk, in order to encourage coastal households in their adaptation activities. In this context, we discuss the role of resources and responsibility of households for their adaptation behavior. We describe the lessons learnt and formulate a research agenda on household-level adaptation to coastal flood risk. In practice, coastal risk management policies should further promote individually driven adaptation by integrating it in adaptation strategies and processes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

HIV Prevention for Adults With Criminal Justice Involvement: A Systematic Review of HIV Risk-Reduction Interventions in Incarceration and Community Settings

PubMed Central

Dumont, Dora; Operario, Don

2014-01-01

We summarized and appraised evidence regarding HIV prevention interventions for adults with criminal justice involvement. We included randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials that evaluated an HIV prevention intervention, enrolled participants with histories of criminal justice involvement, and reported biological or behavioral outcomes. We used Cochrane methods to screen 32 271 citations from 16 databases and gray literature. We included 37 trials enrolling n = 12 629 participants. Interventions were 27 psychosocial, 7 opioid substitution therapy, and 3 HIV-testing programs. Eleven programs significantly reduced sexual risk taking, 4 reduced injection drug risks, and 4 increased testing. Numerous interventions may reduce HIV-related risks among adults with criminal justice involvement. Future research should consider process evaluations, programs involving partners or families, and interventions integrating biomedical, psychosocial, and structural approaches. PMID:25211725

RISK ASSESSMENT AND LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LCIA) FOR HUMAN HEALTH CANCEROUS AND NONCANCEROUS EMISSIONS: INTEGRATED AND COMPLEMENTARY WITH CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE USEPA

EPA Science Inventory

The historical parallels, complementary roles, and potential for integration of human health risk assessment (RA) and Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) are explored. Previous authors have considered the comparison of LCA and risk assessment recognizing the inherent differences ...

The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2010-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

78 FR 32865 - Procedures To Establish Appropriate Minimum Block Sizes for Large Notional Off-Facility Swaps and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-31

... Financial Integrity of Markets c. Price Discovery d. Sound Risk Management Practices e. Other Public... Discovery d. Sound Risk Management Practices e. Other Public Interest Considerations E. Costs and Benefits..., Competitiveness and Financial Integrity c. Price Discovery d. Sound Risk Management Practices e. Other Public...

The Strategic and Legal Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: An Enterprise Risk Management Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, Craig

2017-01-01

Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business for universities. WIL is a strategic risk worthy of pursuing by universities in the prevailing higher education environment, which is characterized by competition, changes in funding arrangements and stakeholder demand for WIL. Nevertheless the strategic opportunities that WIL presents cannot be…

Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2006-08-01

A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.

Baseline study and risk analysis of landfill leachate - Current state-of-the-science of computer aided approaches.

PubMed

Butt, T E; Alam, A; Gouda, H M; Paul, P; Mair, N

2017-02-15

For the successful completion of a risk analysis process, its foundation (i.e. a baseline study) has to be well established. For this purpose, a baseline study needs to be more integrated than ever, particularly when environmental legislation is increasingly becoming stringent and integrated. This research investigates and concludes that no clear evidence of computer models for baseline study has been found in a whole-system and integrated format, which risk assessors could readily and effectively use to underpin risk analyses holistically and yet specifically for landfill leachate. This is established on the basis of investigation of software packages that are particularly closely related to landfills. Holistic baseline study is also defined along with its implications and in the context of risk assessment of landfill leachate. The study also indicates a number of factors and features that need to be added to baseline study in order to render it more integrated thereby enhancing risk analyses for landfill leachate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pilot Test of an Integrated Sexual Risk Reduction Intervention for Women with a History of Childhood Sexual Abuse.

PubMed

Senn, Theresa E; Braksmajer, Amy; Urban, Marguerite A; Coury-Doniger, Patricia; Carey, Michael P

2017-11-01

HIV and childhood sexual abuse (CSA) are intersecting public health problems for women. We pilot tested an integrated sexual risk reduction intervention for women with a history of CSA that addressed both the consequences of CSA [based on the Traumagenic Dynamics (TD) framework] and the antecedents of sexual risk behavior (based on the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills [IMB] model). Women with a history of CSA who were attending a public STI clinic (n = 84) were randomly assigned to a five-session integrated TD/IMB (experimental) group intervention or to a time-matched IMB-guided sexual risk reduction (control) group intervention. Preliminary findings indicated that women in the integrated TD/IMB intervention reduced their average number of episodes of unprotected sex with a primary partner, their alcohol use, and their likelihood of being in a violent relationship, relative to women in the IMB-only group. Our findings suggest that sexual risk reduction interventions that address both the consequences of CSA and the antecedents of sexual risk behavior may be efficacious in reducing sexual risk behavior among women who were sexually abused.

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group.

PubMed

Liyanage, H; de Lusignan, S; Liaw, S-T; Kuziemsky, C E; Mold, F; Krause, P; Fleming, D; Jones, S

2014-08-15

Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

‘Someday it will be the norm’: physician perspectives on the utility of genome sequencing for patient care in the MedSeq Project

PubMed Central

Vassy, Jason L; Christensen, Kurt D; Slashinski, Melody J; Lautenbach, Denise M; Raghavan, Sridharan; Robinson, Jill Oliver; Blumenthal-Barby, Jennifer; Feuerman, Lindsay Zausmer; Lehmann, Lisa Soleymani; Murray, Michael F; Green, Robert C; McGuire, Amy L

2015-01-01

Aim To describe practicing physicians’ perceived clinical utility of genome sequencing. Materials & methods We conducted a mixed-methods analysis of data from 18 primary care physicians and cardiologists in a study of the clinical integration of whole-genome sequencing. Physicians underwent brief genomics continuing medical education before completing surveys and semi-structured interviews. Results Physicians described sequencing as currently lacking clinical utility because of its uncertain interpretation and limited impact on clinical decision-making, but they expressed the idea that its clinical integration was inevitable. Potential clinical uses for sequencing included complementing other clinical information, risk stratification, motivating patient behavior change and pharmacogenetics. Conclusion Physicians given genomics continuing medical education use the language of both evidence-based and personalized medicine in describing the utility of genome-wide testing in patient care. PMID:25642274

White Matter Integrity, Substance Use, and Risk Taking in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Jacobus, Joanna; Thayer, Rachel E.; Trim, Ryan S.; Bava, Sunita; Frank, Lawrence R.; Tapert, Susan F.

2012-01-01

White matter development is important for efficient communication between brain regions, higher order cognitive functioning, and complex behaviors. Adolescents have a higher propensity for engaging in risky behaviors, yet few studies have explored associations between white matter integrity and risk taking directly. Altered white matter integrity in mid-adolescence was hypothesized to predict subsequent risk taking behaviors 1.5 years later. Adolescent substance users (predominantly alcohol and marijuana, n=47) and demographically similar non-users (n=49) received diffusion tensor imaging at baseline (ages 16–19), and risk taking measures at both baseline and an 18-month follow-up (i.e., at ages 17–20). Brain regions of interest were: fornix, superior corona radiata, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and superior fronto-occipital fasciculus. In substance using youth (n=47), lower white matter integrity at baseline in the fornix and superior corona radiata predicted follow-up substance use (ΔR2 =10–12%, ps < .01), and baseline fornix integrity predicted follow-up delinquent behaviors (ΔR2 = 10%, p < .01) 1.5 years later. Poorer fronto-limbic white matter integrity was linked to a greater propensity for future risk taking behaviors among youth who initiated heavy substance use by mid-adolescence. Most notable were relationships between projection and limbic system fibers and future substance use frequency. Subcortical white matter coherence along with an imbalance between the maturation levels in cognitive control and reward systems may disadvantage the resistance to engage in risk taking behaviors during adolescence. PMID:22564204

White matter integrity, substance use, and risk taking in adolescence.

PubMed

Jacobus, Joanna; Thayer, Rachel E; Trim, Ryan S; Bava, Sunita; Frank, Lawrence R; Tapert, Susan F

2013-06-01

White matter development is important for efficient communication between brain regions, higher order cognitive functioning, and complex behaviors. Adolescents have a higher propensity for engaging in risky behaviors, yet few studies have explored associations between white matter integrity and risk taking directly. Altered white matter integrity in mid-adolescence was hypothesized to predict subsequent risk taking behaviors 1.5 years later. Adolescent substance users (predominantly alcohol and marijuana, n = 47) and demographically similar nonusers (n = 49) received diffusion tensor imaging at baseline (ages 16-19), and risk taking measures at both baseline and an 18-month follow-up (i.e., at ages 17-20). Brain regions of interest were the fornix, superior corona radiata, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and superior fronto-occipital fasciculus. In substance-using youth (n = 47), lower white matter integrity at baseline in the fornix and superior corona radiata predicted follow-up substance use (ΔR2 = 10-12%, ps < .01), and baseline fornix integrity predicted follow-up delinquent behaviors (ΔR2 = 10%, p < .01) 1.5 years later. Poorer fronto-limbic white matter integrity was linked to a greater propensity for future risk taking behaviors among youth who initiated heavy substance use by mid-adolescence. Most notable were relationships between projection and limbic-system fibers and future substance-use frequency. Subcortical white matter coherence, along with an imbalance between the maturation levels in cognitive control and reward systems, may disadvantage the resistance to engage in risk taking behaviors during adolescence. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

An integrated system for identifying the hidden assassins in traditional medicines containing aristolochic acids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lan; Sun, Wei; Wang, Bo; Zhao, Haiyu; Li, Yaoli; Cai, Shaoqing; Xiang, Li; Zhu, Yingjie; Yao, Hui; Song, Jingyuan; Cheng, Yung-Chi; Chen, Shilin

2015-08-01

Traditional herbal medicines adulterated and contaminated with plant materials from the Aristolochiaceae family, which contain aristolochic acids (AAs), cause aristolochic acid nephropathy. Approximately 256 traditional Chinese patent medicines, containing Aristolochiaceous materials, are still being sold in Chinese markets today. In order to protect consumers from health risks due to AAs, the hidden assassins, efficient methods to differentiate Aristolochiaceous herbs from their putative substitutes need to be established. In this study, 158 Aristolochiaceous samples representing 46 species and four genera as well as 131 non-Aristolochiaceous samples representing 33 species, 20 genera and 12 families were analyzed using DNA barcodes based on the ITS2 and psbA-trnH sequences. Aristolochiaceous materials and their non-Aristolochiaceous substitutes were successfully identified using BLAST1, the nearest distance method and the neighbor-joining (NJ) tree. In addition, based on sequence information of ITS2, we developed a Real-Time PCR assay which successfully identified herbal material from the Aristolochiaceae family. Using Ultra High Performance Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer (UHPLC-HR-MS), we demonstrated that most representatives from the Aristolochiaceae family contain toxic AAs. Therefore, integrated DNA barcodes, Real-Time PCR assays using TaqMan probes and UHPLC-HR-MS system provides an efficient and reliable authentication system to protect consumers from health risks due to the hidden assassins (AAs).

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

PubMed

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health Perspectives

PubMed Central

Axelrad, Daniel A.; Bahadori, Tina; Bussard, David; Cascio, Wayne E.; Deener, Kacee; Dix, David; Thomas, Russell S.; Kavlock, Robert J.; Burke, Thomas A.

2017-01-01

Preventing adverse health effects of environmental chemical exposure is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and effects of environmentally induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Considering these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. PMID:28520487

Risk analysis of hematopoietic stem cell transplant process: failure mode, effect, and criticality analysis and hazard analysis critical control point methods integration based on guidelines to good manufacturing practice for medicinal product ANNEX 20 (February 2008).

PubMed

Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F

2010-01-01

The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

PubMed

Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

2015-05-01

This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

The need for transparency and reproducibility in documenting values for regulatory decision making and evaluating causality: The example of formaldehyde.

PubMed

Van Landingham, Cynthia; Mundt, Kenneth A; Allen, Bruce C; Gentry, P Robinan

2016-11-01

Reproducibility and transparency in scientific reporting is paramount to advancing science and providing the foundation required for sound regulation. Recent examples demonstrate that pivotal scientific findings cannot be replicated, due to poor documentation or methodological bias, sparking debate across scientific and regulatory communities. However, there is general agreement that improvements in communicating and documenting research and risk assessment methods are needed. In the case of formaldehyde, the peer-review conducted by a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Committee questioned the approaches used by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) in developing draft unit risk values. Using the original data from the key study (Beane Freeman et al., 2009) and documentation provided in the draft IRIS profile, we attempted to duplicate the reported inhalation unit risk values and address the NAS Committee's questions regarding application of the appropriate dose-response model. Overall, documentation of the methods lacked sufficient detail to allow for replication of the unit risk estimates, specifically for Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemias, the key systemic endpoints selected by IRIS. The lack of apparent exposure-response relationships for selected endpoints raises the question whether quantitative analyses are appropriate for these endpoints, and if so, how results are to be interpreted. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Heavy Metal Contamination Assessment and Partition for Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Ju, Meiting

2014-01-01

Industrial and mining activities have been recognized as the major sources of soil heavy metal contamination. This study introduced an improved Nemerow index method based on the Nemerow and geo-accumulation index. Taking a typical industrial and mining gathering area in Tianjin (China) as example, this study then analyzed the contamination sources as well as the ecological and integrated risks. The spatial distribution of the contamination level and ecological risk were determined using Geographic Information Systems. The results are as follows: (1) Zinc showed the highest contaminant level in the study area; the contamination levels of the other seven heavy metals assessed were relatively lower. (2) The combustion of fossil fuels and emissions from industrial and mining activities were the main sources of contamination in the study area. (3) The overall contamination level of heavy metals in the study area ranged from heavily contaminated to extremely contaminated and showed an uneven distribution. (4) The potential ecological risk showed an uneven distribution, and the overall ecological risk level ranged from low to moderate. This study also emphasized the importance of partition in industrial and mining areas, the extensive application of spatial analysis methods, and the consideration of human health risks in future studies. PMID:25032743

Identifying Home Care Clinicians’ Information Needs for Managing Fall Risks

PubMed Central

Alhuwail, Dari

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives To help manage the risk of falls in home care, this study aimed to (i) identify home care clinicians’ information needs and how they manage missing or inaccurate data, (ii) identify problems that impact effectiveness and efficiency associated with retaining, exchanging, or processing information about fall risks in existing workflows and currently adopted health information technology (IT) solutions, and (iii) offer informatics-based recommendations to improve fall risk management interventions. Methods A case study was carried out in a single not-for-profit suburban Medicare-certified home health agency with three branches. Qualitative data were collected over a six month period through observations, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. The Framework method was used for analysis. Maximum variation sampling was adopted to recruit a diverse sample of clinicians. Results Overall, the information needs for fall risk management were categorized into physiological, care delivery, educational, social, environmental, and administrative domains. Examples include a brief fall-related patient history, weight-bearing status, medications that affect balance, availability of caregivers at home, and the influence of patients’ cultures on fall management interventions. The unavailability and inaccuracy of critical information related to fall risks can delay necessary therapeutic services aimed at reducing patients’ risk for falling and thereby jeopardizing their safety. Currently adopted IT solutions did not adequately accommodate data related to fall risk management. Conclusion The results highlight the essential information for fall risk management in home care. Home care workflows and health IT solutions must effectively and efficiently retain, exchange, and process information necessary for fall risk management. Interoperability and integration of the various health IT solutions to make data sharing accessible to all clinicians is critical for fall risk management. Findings from this study can help home health agencies better understand their information needs to manage fall risks. PMID:27437035

Development and application of a novel method for regional assessment of groundwater contamination risk in the Songhua River Basin.

PubMed

Nixdorf, Erik; Sun, Yuanyuan; Lin, Mao; Kolditz, Olaf

2017-12-15

The main objective of this study is to quantify the groundwater contamination risk of Songhua River Basin by applying a novel approach of integrating public datasets, web services and numerical modelling techniques. To our knowledge, this study is the first to establish groundwater risk maps for the entire Songhua River Basin, one of the largest and most contamination-endangered river basins in China. Index-based groundwater risk maps were created with GIS tools at a spatial resolution of 30arc sec by combining the results of groundwater vulnerability and hazard assessment. Groundwater vulnerability was evaluated using the DRASTIC index method based on public datasets at the highest available resolution in combination with numerical groundwater modelling. As a novel approach to overcome data scarcity at large scales, a web mapping service based data query was applied to obtain an inventory for potential hazardous sites within the basin. The groundwater risk assessment demonstrated that <1% of Songhua River Basin is at high or very high contamination risk. These areas were mainly located in the vast plain areas with hotspots particularly in the Changchun metropolitan area. Moreover, groundwater levels and pollution point sources were found to play a significantly larger impact in assessing these areas than originally assumed by the index scheme. Moderate contamination risk was assigned to 27% of the aquifers, predominantly associated with less densely populated agricultural areas. However, the majority of aquifer area in the sparsely populated mountain ranges displayed low groundwater contamination risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this novel method is valid for regional assessments of groundwater contamination risk. Despite limitations in resolution and input data consistency, the obtained groundwater contamination risk maps will be beneficial for regional and local decision-making processes with regard to groundwater protection measures, particularly if other data availability is limited. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Risk Assessment of a Metal-Contaminated Area in the Tropics. Tier II: Detailed Assessment.

PubMed

Niemeyer, Júlia Carina; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Ribeiro, Rui; Rutgers, Michiel; Nogueira, Marco Antonio; da Silva, Eduardo Mendes; Sousa, José Paulo

2015-01-01

This study presents data on the detailed evaluation (tier 2) of a site-specific ecological risk assessment (ssERA) in a former smelter area contaminated with metals (Santo Amaro, Bahia, Brazil). Combining information from three lines of evidence (LoE), chemical (ChemLoE), ecotoxicological (EcotoxLoE) and ecological (EcoLoE), in the Triad approach, integrated risk values were calculated to rank sites and confirm the potential risk disclosed with tier 1. Risk values were calculated for the habitat and for the retention functions in each sampling point. Habitat function included the ChemLoE calculated from total metal concentrations. The EcotoxLoE was based on reproduction tests with terrestrial invertebrates (Folsomia candida, Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia andrei), shoot length and plant biomass (Avena sativa, Brassica rapa). For the EcoLoE, ecological parameters (microbial parameters, soil invertebrate community, litter breakdown) were used to derive risk values. Retention function included the ChemLoE, calculated from extractable metal concentrations, and the EcotoxLoE based on eluate tests with aquatic organisms (Daphnia magna reproduction and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata growth). Results related to the habitat function indicated that the metal residues are sufficient to cause risk to biota, while the low metal levels in extracts and the general lack of toxicity in aquatic tests indicated a high soil retention capacity in most sampling points. Integrated risk of tier 2 showed the same trend of tier 1, suggesting the need to proceed with remediation actions. The high risk levels were related to direct toxicity to organisms and indirect effects, such as failure in the establishment of vegetation and the consequent loss of habitat quality for microorganisms and soil fauna. This study shed some light on the selection of tools for the tier 2 of an ssERA in tropical metal-contaminated sites, focusing on ecological receptors at risk and using available chemical methods, ecological surveys and ecotoxicity tests.

Ecological Risk Assessment of a Metal-Contaminated Area in the Tropics. Tier II: Detailed Assessment

PubMed Central

Niemeyer, Júlia Carina; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Ribeiro, Rui; Rutgers, Michiel; Nogueira, Marco Antonio; da Silva, Eduardo Mendes; Sousa, José Paulo

2015-01-01

This study presents data on the detailed evaluation (tier 2) of a site-specific ecological risk assessment (ssERA) in a former smelter area contaminated with metals (Santo Amaro, Bahia, Brazil). Combining information from three lines of evidence (LoE), chemical (ChemLoE), ecotoxicological (EcotoxLoE) and ecological (EcoLoE), in the Triad approach, integrated risk values were calculated to rank sites and confirm the potential risk disclosed with tier 1. Risk values were calculated for the habitat and for the retention functions in each sampling point. Habitat function included the ChemLoE calculated from total metal concentrations. The EcotoxLoE was based on reproduction tests with terrestrial invertebrates (Folsomia candida, Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia andrei), shoot length and plant biomass (Avena sativa, Brassica rapa). For the EcoLoE, ecological parameters (microbial parameters, soil invertebrate community, litter breakdown) were used to derive risk values. Retention function included the ChemLoE, calculated from extractable metal concentrations, and the EcotoxLoE based on eluate tests with aquatic organisms (Daphnia magna reproduction and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata growth). Results related to the habitat function indicated that the metal residues are sufficient to cause risk to biota, while the low metal levels in extracts and the general lack of toxicity in aquatic tests indicated a high soil retention capacity in most sampling points. Integrated risk of tier 2 showed the same trend of tier 1, suggesting the need to proceed with remediation actions. The high risk levels were related to direct toxicity to organisms and indirect effects, such as failure in the establishment of vegetation and the consequent loss of habitat quality for microorganisms and soil fauna. This study shed some light on the selection of tools for the tier 2 of an ssERA in tropical metal-contaminated sites, focusing on ecological receptors at risk and using available chemical methods, ecological surveys and ecotoxicity tests. PMID:26528915

Risk of Recurrence and Chemotherapy Benefit for Patients With Node-Negative, Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer: Recurrence Score Alone and Integrated With Pathologic and Clinical Factors

PubMed Central

Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P.; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F.; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P.; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman

2011-01-01

Purpose The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) –positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. Patients and Methods From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. Results RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). Conclusion RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit. PMID:22010013

Pretest probability estimation in the evaluation of patients with possible deep vein thrombosis.

PubMed

Vinson, David R; Patel, Jason P; Irving, Cedric S

2011-07-01

An estimation of pretest probability is integral to the proper interpretation of a negative compression ultrasound in the diagnostic assessment of lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis. We sought to determine the rate, method, and predictors of pretest probability estimation in such patients. This cross-sectional study of outpatients was conducted in a suburban community hospital in 2006. Estimation of pretest probability was done by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay d-dimer, Wells criteria, and unstructured clinical impression. Using logistic regression analysis, we measured predictors of documented risk assessment. A cohort analysis was undertaken to compare 3-month thromboembolic outcomes between risk groups. Among 524 cases, 289 (55.2%) underwent pretest probability estimation using the following methods: enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay d-dimer (228; 43.5%), clinical impression (106; 20.2%), and Wells criteria (24; 4.6%), with 69 (13.2%) patients undergoing a combination of at least two methods. Patient factors were not predictive of pretest probability estimation, but the specialty of the clinician was predictive; emergency physicians (P < .0001) and specialty clinicians (P = .001) were less likely than primary care clinicians to perform risk assessment. Thromboembolic events within 3 months were experienced by 0 of 52 patients in the explicitly low-risk group, 4 (1.8%) of 219 in the explicitly moderate- to high-risk group, and 1 (0.4%) of 226 in the group that did not undergo explicit risk assessment. Negative ultrasounds in the workup of deep vein thrombosis are commonly interpreted in isolation apart from pretest probability estimations. Risk assessments varied by physician specialties. Opportunities exist for improvement in the diagnostic evaluation of these patients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.