Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and scientific results obtained so far at the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI). ERI hosts the scientific part focusing on characterization of the plate structure and source faults in and around the Tokyo metropolitan area. One of the topics is ongoing deployment of seismic stations that constitute the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). We have deployed 226 stations with a 2-5 km interval in space. Based on seismic data obtained from the MeSO-net, we aim to reveal the detailed geometry of the subducting PSP.

Pyrethrins and Pyrethroids

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page includes information on the use of pyrethrins and pyrethroids as insecticides, the current reevaluation of this group of pesticides in registration review, and previous assessments, decisions, and risk mitigation efforts.

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.

PubMed

Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas

2012-12-01

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer

2011-01-01

In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners' decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore...

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

Children's Sleep and Academic Achievement: The Moderating Role of Effortful Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diaz, Anjolii; Berger, Rebecca; Valiente, Carlos; Eisenberg, Nancy; VanSchyndel, Sarah K.; Tao, Chun; Spinrad, Tracy; Doane, Leah D.; Thompson, Marilyn S.; Silva, Kassondra M.; Southworth, Jody

2017-01-01

Poor sleep is thought to interfere with children's learning and academic achievement (AA). However, existing research and theory indicate there are factors that may mitigate the academic risk associated with poor sleep. The purpose of this study was to examine the moderating role of children's effortful control (EC) on the relation between sleep…

Supporting Technology at GRC to Mitigate Risk as Stirling Power Conversion Transitions to Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Thieme, Lanny G.; Wong, Wayne A.

2009-01-01

Stirling power conversion technology has been reaching more advanced levels of maturity during its development for space power applications. The current effort is in support of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC), Sunpower Inc., and the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs) to convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. Of paramount importance is the reliability of the power system and as a part of this, the Stirling power convertors. GRC has established a supporting technology effort with tasks in the areas of reliability, convertor testing, high-temperature materials, structures, advanced analysis, organics, and permanent magnets. The project utilizes the matrix system at GRC to make use of resident experts in each of the aforementioned fields. Each task is intended to reduce risk and enhance reliability of the convertor as this technology transitions toward flight status. This paper will provide an overview of each task, outline the recent efforts and accomplishments, and show how they mitigate risk and impact the reliability of the ASC s and ultimately, the ASRG.

Supporting Technology at GRC to Mitigate Risk as Stirling Power Conversion Transitions to Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Thieme, Lanny G.; Wong, Wayne A.

2008-01-01

Stirling power conversion technology has been reaching more advanced levels of maturity during its development for space power applications. The current effort is in support of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC), Sunpower Inc., and the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs) to convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. Of paramount importance is the reliability of the power system and as a part of this, the Stirling power convertors. GRC has established a supporting technology effort with tasks in the areas of reliability, convertor testing, high-temperature materials, structures, advanced analysis, organics, and permanent magnets. The project utilizes the matrix system at GRC to make use of resident experts in each of the aforementioned fields. Each task is intended to reduce risk and enhance reliability of the convertor as this technology transitions toward flight status. This paper will provide an overview of each task, outline the recent efforts and accomplishments, and show how they mitigate risk and impact the reliability of the ASC s and ultimately, the ASRG.

Geoengineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

PubMed

Resnik, David B; Vallero, Daniel A

2011-12-17

Some engineers and scientists recently have suggested that it would be prudent to consider engaging in geoengineering to mitigate global warming. Geoengineering differs from other methods for mitigating global warming because it involves a deliberate effort to affect the climate at a global scale. Although geoengineering is not a new idea, it has taken on added significance as a result of difficulties with implementing other proposals to mitigate climate change. While proponents of geoengineering admit that it can have significant risks for the environment and public health, many maintain that it is worth pursuing, given the failure of other means of mitigating global warming. Some environmental groups have voiced strong opposition to all forms of geoengineering. In this article, we examine arguments for and against geoengineering and discuss some policy options. We argue that specific geoengineering proposals should not be implemented until there is good evidence concerning their safety, efficacy, and feasibility, as well as a plan for oversight. International cooperation and public input should also be sought. Other methods for mitigating global warming should be aggressively pursued while geoengineering is under consideration. The promise of an engineering solution to global warming should not be used as an excuse to abandon or cut back current, climate mitigation efforts.

Evaluating soil risks associated with severe wildfire and ground-based logging

Treesearch

Keith M. Reynolds; Paul F. Hessburg; Richard E. Miller; Robert T. Meurisse

2011-01-01

Rehabilitation and timber-salvage activities after wildfire require rapid planning and rational decisions. Identifying areas with high risk for erosion and soil productivity losses is important. Moreover, allocation of corrective and mitigative efforts must be rational and prioritized. Our logic-based analysis of forested soil polygons on the Okanogan-Wenatchee...

Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinley, David

2008-01-01

The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

Ethical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research.

PubMed

Morrow, David R

2014-12-28

Many commentators fear that climate engineering research might lead policy-makers to reduce mitigation efforts. Most of the literature on this so-called 'moral hazard' problem focuses on the prediction that climate engineering research would reduce mitigation efforts. This paper focuses on a related ethical question: Why would it be a bad thing if climate engineering research obstructed mitigation? If climate engineering promises to be effective enough, it might justify some reduction in mitigation. Climate policy portfolios involving sufficiently large or poorly planned reductions in mitigation, however, could lead to an outcome that would be worse than the portfolio that would be chosen in the absence of further climate engineering research. This paper applies three ethical perspectives to describe the kinds of portfolios that would be worse than that 'baseline portfolio'. The literature on climate engineering identifies various mechanisms that might cause policy-makers to choose these inferior portfolios, but it is difficult to know in advance whether the existence of these mechanisms means that climate engineering research really would lead to a worse outcome. In the light of that uncertainty, a precautionary approach suggests that researchers should take measures to reduce the risk of mitigation obstruction. Several such measures are suggested. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Overview of NASA's Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephan, Ryan A.

2011-01-01

The now-cancelled Constellation Program included the Orion, Altair, and Lunar Surface Systems project offices. The first two elements, Orion and Altair, were planned to be manned space vehicles while the third element was much more diverse and included several sub-elements. Among other things, these sub-elements were Rovers and a Lunar Habitat. The planned missions involving these systems and vehicles included several risks and design challenges. Due to the unique thermal operating environment, many of these risks and challenges were associated with the vehicles thermal control system. NASA s Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) consisted of various technology development projects. The project chartered with mitigating the aforementioned thermal risks and design challenges was the Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project. These risks and design challenges were being addressed through a rigorous technology development process that was planned to culminate with an integrated thermal control system test. Although the technologies being developed were originally aimed towards mitigating specific Constellation risks, the technology development process is being continued within a new program. This continued effort is justified by the fact that many of the technologies are generically applicable to future spacecraft thermal control systems. The current paper summarizes the development efforts being performed by the technology development project. The development efforts involve heat acquisition and heat rejection hardware including radiators, heat exchangers, and evaporators. The project has also been developing advanced phase change material heat sinks and performing a material compatibility assessment for a promising thermal control system working fluid. The to-date progress and lessons-learned from these development efforts will be discussed throughout the paper.

Harnessing the Risk-Related Data Supply Chain: An Information Architecture Approach to Enriching Human System Research and Operations Knowledge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buquo, Lynn; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2010-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) and Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD), not unlike many NASA organizations today, struggle with the inherent inefficiencies caused by dependencies on heterogeneous data systems and silos of data and information spread across decentralized discipline domains. The capture of operational and research-based data/information (both in-flight and ground-based) in disparate IT systems impedes the extent to which that data/information can be efficiently and securely shared, analyzed, and enriched into knowledge that directly and more rapidly supports HRP's research-focused human system risk mitigation efforts and SLSD s operationally oriented risk management efforts. As a result, an integrated effort is underway to more fully understand and document how specific sets of risk-related data/information are generated and used and in what IT systems that data/information currently resides. By mapping the risk-related data flow from raw data to useable information and knowledge (think of it as the data supply chain), HRP and SLSD are building an information architecture plan to leverage their existing, shared IT infrastructure. In addition, it is important to create a centralized structured tool to represent risks including attributes such as likelihood, consequence, contributing factors, and the evidence supporting the information in all these fields. Representing the risks in this way enables reasoning about the risks, e.g. revisiting a risk assessment when a mitigation strategy is unavailable, updating a risk assessment when new information becomes available, etc. Such a system also provides a concise way to communicate the risks both within the organization as well as with collaborators. Understanding and, hence, harnessing the human system risk-related data supply chain enhances both organizations' abilities to securely collect, integrate, and share data assets that improve human system research and operations.

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barley, Bryan; Newhouse, Marilyn; Bacskay, Allen

2010-01-01

Use of heritage and new technology is necessary/enabling to implementing small, low cost missions, yet overruns decrease the ability to sustain future mission flight rates The majority of the cost growth drivers seen in the D&NF study were embedded early during formulation phase and later realized during the development and I&T phases Cost drivers can be avoided or significantly decreased by project management and SE emphasis on early identification of risks and realistic analyses SE processes that emphasize an assessment of technology within the mission system to identify technical issues in the design or operational use of the technology. Realistic assessment of new and heritage spacecraft technology assumptions , identification of risks and mitigation strategies. Realistic estimates of effort required to inherit existing or qualify new technology, identification of risks to estimates and develop mitigation strategies. Allocation of project reserves for risk-based mitigation strategies of each individual area of heritage or new technology. Careful tailoring of inheritance processes to ensure due diligence.

Disaster mitigation action plan: Digital media on improving accountability and community relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adila, I.; Dewi, W. W. A.; Tamitiadini, D.; Syauki, W. R.

2017-06-01

This study wants to address on how communication science is applied to Disaster Mitigation Plan. Especially, the implementation of Community Media and Development of Communication Technology that synergize to create a Disaster Mitigation Medium, which is appropriate for typology of Indonesia. Various levels of priorities that include disaster mitigation information, namely, increasing chain system of early warning systems, building evacuation, improving alertness and capacity to face a disaster, as well as minimizing disaster risk factor. Through this concept, mitigation actions plan of Tulungagung Coastal areas is expected to be applied in other regions in Indonesia by BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana). Having this strategy to be implemented based on region characteristics, it is expected that risk reduction process can be run optimally. As a result, the strategy is known as Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (PRBBK), which means as the organized-efforts by society for pra-, during, and post- disaster by using available resources as much as possible to prevent, reduce, avoid, and recover from the impact of disasters. Therefore, this result can be a Pilot Project for BNBP Indonesia, as a government decisive attitude for the next steps in protecting people residing in the region prone to natural disasters all over Indonesia.

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Treesearch

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

The Critical Path Roadmap Project: Biomedical Risk Reduction for Extended Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charles, John B.; Leveton, Lauren B.

2000-01-01

Human exploration of space requires an understanding of the risks to which crews will be exposed during such missions, and the mitigation of those risks to the fullest extent practical. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for interplanetary expeditions involving long periods in weightlessness in transit to and then from the destination (a planet, such as Mars, or perhaps a point in space, such as the Lagrangian point L2), and exposure to the unique environment of the destination itself. We need to know, more definitively, what the risks are to human health, safety, and performance, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long duration mission. The Johnson Space Center's Space and Life Sciences Directorate and the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have implemented an effort to identify the most critical risks confronting humans on such mission and the types of research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability and severity of those risks. This paper describes the "Critical Path Roadmap Project" to define, assess and prioritize the risks and present the results of the assessment with an emphasis on the research and technology priorities to meet the challenge of long duration human spaceflight mission.

Identification of human-carnivore conflict hotspots to prioritize mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Cushman, Samuel A; Elliot, Nicholas B

2017-12-01

Human-carnivore conflict is a primary driver of carnivore declines worldwide and resolving these conflicts is a conservation priority. However, resources to mitigate conflicts are limited and should be focused on areas of highest priority. We conducted 820 semistructured interviews with community members living within Kenya's Maasai Mara ecosystem. A multiscale analysis was used to determine the influence of husbandry and environmental factors on livestock depredation inside livestock enclosures (bomas). Areas with a high proportion of closed habitat and protected areas had the highest risk of depredation. Depredation was most likely to occur at weak bomas and at households where there were fewer dogs. We used the results to identify potential conflict hotspots by mapping the probability of livestock depredation across the landscape. 21.4% of the landscape was classified as high risk, and within these areas, 53.4% of the households that were interviewed had weak bomas. Synthesis and applications . With limited resources available to mitigate human-carnivore conflicts, it is imperative that areas are identified where livestock is most at risk of depredation. Focusing mitigation measures on high-risk areas may reduce conflict and lead to a decrease in retaliatory killings of predators.

Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of...

Ensuring U.S. Air Force Operations During Cyber Attacks Against Combat Support Systems: Guidance for Where to Focus Mitigation Efforts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

York: Oxford University Press, 2013, pp. 196–201. 11 See, for example: Verizon RISK Team, 2013 Data Breach Investigations Report, Verizon, 2013; David...doctrine/new_pubs/jp1_02.pdf Verizon RISK Team, 2013 Data Breach Investigations Report, Verizon, 2013. As of December 29, 2013: http

Increasing Space Situational Awareness for NEOs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hestroffer, Daniel J. G. J.; Eggl, Siegfried; Thuillot, William

2015-05-01

Over the past years, Europe has strengthened its commitment to foster space situational awareness. Apart from the current efforts in tracking space weather, artificial satellites and space debris, Near Earth Asteroid threat assessment is a key task. NEOshield has been part of this European effort. We will give an overview over national projects and European programs with French participation such as PoDET, ESTERS, FRIPON, NEOShield, Gaia-FUN-SSO and Stardust. Future plans regarding Near Earth Object threat assessment and mitigation are described. The role of the IMCCE in this framework is discussed using the example of the post mitigation impact risk analyis of Gravity Tractor and Kinetic Impactor based asteroid deflection demonstration mission designs.

Human Mars EDL Pathfinder Study: Assessment of Technology Development Gaps and Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillard, Randolph; Olejniczak, Joe; Polsgrove, Tara; Cianciolo, Alice Dwyer; Munk, Michelle; Whetsel, Charles; Drake, Bret

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results of a NASA initiated Agency-wide assessment to better characterize the risks and potential mitigation approaches associated with landing human class Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems on Mars. Due to the criticality and long-lead nature of advancing EDL techniques, it is necessary to determine an appropriate strategy to improve the capability to land large payloads. A key focus of this study was to understand the key EDL risks and with a focus on determining what "must" be tested at Mars. This process identified the various risks and potential risk mitigation strategies along with the key near term technology development efforts required and in what environment those technology demonstrations were best suited. The study identified key risks along with advantages to each entry technology. In addition, it was identified that provided the EDL concept of operations (con ops) minimized large scale transition events, there was no technology requirement for a Mars pre-cursor demonstration. Instead, NASA should take a direct path to a human-scale lander.

Geoengineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

PubMed Central

Resnik, David B.; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

Some engineers and scientists recently have suggested that it would be prudent to consider engaging in geoengineering to mitigate global warming. Geoengineering differs from other methods for mitigating global warming because it involves a deliberate effort to affect the climate at a global scale. Although geoengineering is not a new idea, it has taken on added significance as a result of difficulties with implementing other proposals to mitigate climate change. While proponents of geoengineering admit that it can have significant risks for the environment and public health, many maintain that it is worth pursuing, given the failure of other means of mitigating global warming. Some environmental groups have voiced strong opposition to all forms of geoengineering. In this article, we examine arguments for and against geoengineering and discuss some policy options. We argue that specific geoengineering proposals should not be implemented until there is good evidence concerning their safety, efficacy, and feasibility, as well as a plan for oversight. International cooperation and public input should also be sought. Other methods for mitigating global warming should be aggressively pursued while geoengineering is under consideration. The promise of an engineering solution to global warming should not be used as an excuse to abandon or cut back current, climate mitigation efforts. PMID:23502911

77 FR 48970 - Sunshine Act Notice

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-15

... DEFENSE NUCLEAR FACILITIES SAFETY BOARD Sunshine Act Notice AGENCY: Defense Nuclear Facilities... given of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board's (Board) public meeting and hearing described... (NNSA) efforts to mitigate risks to public and worker safety posed by aging defense nuclear facilities...

Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

2011-01-01

CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products.

Defensible space features: impact of voluntary versus mandatory programs on a homeowner's attitudes and actions

Treesearch

Christine Vogt; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Greg Winter

2011-01-01

Our research examined homeowner responses to local efforts that encourage mitigation of wildland fire risks on private property. We were specifically interested in whether there were different attitudes toward, and different compliance responses to, voluntary versus mandatory programs aimed at managing vegetation for fire risks. We chose four sites for the diversity of...

Seismic Risk Reduction for Soft-Story Wood-Frame Buildings: Test Results and Retrofit Recommendations from the Nees-Soft Project

Treesearch

John W. van de Lindt; Pouria Bahmani; Mikhail Gershfeld; Gary Mochizuki; Xiaoyun Shao; Steven E. Pryor; Weichiang Pang; Michael D. Symans; Jingjing Tian; Ershad Ziaei; Elaina N. Jennings; Douglas Rammer

2014-01-01

There are thousands of soft-story wood-frame buildings in California which have been recognized as a disaster preparedness problem with concerted mitigation efforts underway in many cities throughout the state. The vast majority of those efforts are based on numerical modelling, often with half-century old data in which assumptions have to be made based on engineering...

What motivates individuals to protect themselves from risks: the case of wildland fires.

PubMed

Martin, Ingrid M; Bender, Holly; Raish, Carol

2007-08-01

This research investigates the cognitive perceptual process that homeowners go through when faced with the decision to protect themselves from the risk of wildfires. This decision can be examined by looking at the interaction between the integrated protection motivation theory-transtheoretical model and different levels of homeowners' subjective knowledge related to wildfire risks. We investigated the role of motivation, decision stages of risk readiness, and subjective knowledge on the number of risk-mitigating actions undertaken by homeowners living in high-risk communities. The results indicate that homeowners who are in an early or precontemplative stage (both low and high subjective knowledge) as well as low knowledge contemplatives are motivated by their perceived degree of vulnerability to mitigate the risk. In contrast, high knowledge contemplatives' potential behavioral changes are more likely to be motivated by increasing their perceptions of the severity of the risk. Risk-mitigating behaviors undertaken by high knowledge action homeowners are influenced by their perceptions of risk severity, self-efficacy, and response efficacy. In contrast, the low knowledge action homeowners engage in risk reduction behaviors without the influence of any of the PMT variables; demonstrating their motivation to emulate others in their community. These results have implications for the type of information that should be used to effectively communicate risks in an effort to influence the diverse homeowner segments to engage in risk-reduction behaviors.

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

USGS Publications Warehouse

Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Kontar, Y.A.; Santiago-Fandiño, V.; Takahashi, T.

2014-01-01

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

Teaching Bitter Lessons: China’s Use of Force in Territorial Disputes 1962-1988

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

and risk mitigation efforts, followed by an overall analysis of Chinese behavior during the war. The Military Engagement...behave reasonably. In fact, China’s leader’s reasoning on strategic issues can be described as thoughtful, deliberative, and risk aware. Mao said...Chinese behavior during the Sino-Indo war of 1962 suggests the following: 1) China appeared to be risk averse in that it did not desire a conflict

Effort-Reward Imbalance and Post-Traumatic Stress After a Workplace Terror Attack.

PubMed

Hem, Camilla; Nielsen, Morten Birkeland; Hansen, Marianne Bang; Heir, Trond

2016-04-01

Following adverse work conditions, health consequences can be explained by an imbalance between the effort made and the reward received. We investigated the association between extra effort, perceived reward, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The Effort-Reward Imbalance Model was used to examine whether extra effort at work in the aftermath of a workplace-related terrorist attack affected the risk of PTSD and the effects of reward for extra effort from a leader or colleagues. Cross-sectional data were collected 10 months after a terrorist attack in Norway in 2011. Out of 3520 Ministry employees invited, 1927 agreed to participate. Employees reported any extra effort performed as a result of the bomb explosion and any reward received from a leader or colleagues. PTSD was assessed with the PTSD Checklist. Employees who reported extra effort displayed increased risk for PTSD (odds ratio [OR]=1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-2.55, P=0.008). Perceived reward for extra effort from a leader was associated with lower risk for PTSD (OR=0.39, 95% CI: 0.23-0.64, P<0.001) but not perceived reward from colleagues. Extra effort may increase the risk of PTSD, but reward from a leader may mitigate this effect. The Effort-Reward Imbalance Model appears to be an appropriate approach that may contribute to understanding of the etiology of work-related PTSD.

ISS utilization and countermeasure validation: Implementing the critical path roadmap to reduce uncertainties of extended human spaceflight expeditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leveton, Lauren B.; Robinson, Judith L.; Charles, John B.

2000-01-01

Human exploration of space requires the ability to understand and mitigate risks to crews exposed to the conditions associated with such missions. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for interplanetary expeditions involving humans who will be subjected to long transit periods in microgravity as they travel to a distant planet such as Mars, embark and live on the planet's surface for an extended time, and finally, return to the 1 g environment of Earth. We need to know, more definitively, what the human health, safety, and performance risks are, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long duration mission. The Johnson Space Center's Space and Life Sciences Directorate along with the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have been engaged in a strategic planning effort that identifies the most critical risks confronting humans who will venture forth on such missions and the types of research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability and/or severity of those risks. This paper describes the unique approach used to define, assess and prioritize the risks and presents the results of the assessment with an emphasis on the research and technology priorities that will help us to meet the challenge of long duration human spaceflight missions. .

ISS Utilization and Countermeasure Validation: Implementing the Critical Path Roadmap to Reduce Uncertainties of Extended Human Spaceflight Expeditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveton, Lauren B.; Robinson, Judith L.; Charles, John B.

2000-01-01

Human exploration of space requires the ability to understand and mitigate risks to crews exposed to the conditions associated with such missions. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for interplanetary expeditions involving humans who will be subjected to long transit periods in microgravity as they travel to a distant planet such as Mars, embark and live on the planet's surface for an extended time, and finally, return to the 1 g environment of Earth. We need to know, more definitively, what the human health, safety, and performance risks are, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long duration mission. The Johnson Space Center's Space and Life Sciences Directorate along with the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have been engaged in a strategic planning effort that identifies the most critical risks confronting humans who will venture forth on such missions and the types of research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability and/or severity of those risks. This paper describes the unique approach used to define, assess and prioritize the risks and presents the results of the assessment with an emphasis on the research and technology priorities that will help us to meet the challenge of long duration human spaceflight missions.

QuEST: Qualifying Environmentally Sustainable Technologies, Volume 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Pattie

2010-01-01

This edition of the QuEST newsletter contains brief articles that discuss the NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) program, and the importance of collaboration, efforts in materials management and substitution for coatings for launch structures, Low volatile organic compound (VOC) Coatings Field Testing, Non-Chrome Coating Systems, Life Cycle Corrosion Testing, Lead-Free Electronics Testing and Corn Based Depainting and efforts in Pollution Control in the area of Hypergolic Propellant Destruction Evaluation, efforts in development of alternative energy in particular Hydrogen Sensors, Energy and Water Management, and efforts in remediation in the removal of Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) contamination

Therapeutic outcomes, assessments, risk factors and mitigation efforts of immunogenicity of therapeutic protein products.

PubMed

Yin, Liusong; Chen, Xiaoying; Vicini, Paolo; Rup, Bonita; Hickling, Timothy P

2015-06-01

Therapeutic protein products (TPPs) are of considerable value in the treatment of a variety of diseases, including cancer, hemophilia, and autoimmune diseases. The success of TPP mainly results from prolonged half-life, increased target specificity and decreased intrinsic toxicity compared with small molecule drugs. However, unwanted immune responses against TPP, such as generation of anti-drug antibody, can impact both drug efficacy and patient safety, which has led to requirements for increased monitoring in regulatory studies and clinical practice, termination of drug development, or even withdrawal of marketed products. We present an overview of current knowledge on immunogenicity of TPP and its impact on efficacy and safety. We also discuss methods for measurement and prediction of immunogenicity and review both product-related and patient-related risk factors that affect its development, and efforts that may be taken to mitigate it. Lastly, we discuss gaps in knowledge and technology and what is needed to fill these. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling for Integrated Science Management and Resilient Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelhamer, M.; Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.

2014-01-01

Many physiological, environmental, and operational risks exist for crewmembers during spaceflight. An understanding of these risks from an integrated perspective is required to provide effective and efficient mitigations during future exploration missions that typically have stringent limitations on resources available, such as mass, power, and crew time. The Human Research Program (HRP) is in the early stages of developing collaborative modeling approaches for the purposes of managing its science portfolio in an integrated manner to support cross-disciplinary risk mitigation strategies and to enable resilient human and engineered systems in the spaceflight environment. In this talk, we will share ideas being explored from fields such as network science, complexity theory, and system-of-systems modeling. Initial work on tools to support these explorations will be discussed briefly, along with ideas for future efforts.

An Overview of Follow-On Testing Activities of the A-3 Subscale Diffuser Test Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, James E.

2009-01-01

An overview of NASA Stennis Space Center's (SSC) A-3 Subscale Diffuser Test (SDT) Project is presented. The original scope of the SDT Project, conducted from April 2007 to January 2008, collected data to support mitigation of risk associated with design and procurement activities of the A-3 Test Stand Project, an effort to construct a simulated altitude test facility at SSC in support of NASA's Constellation Program. Follow-on tests were conducted from May 2008 through August 2009, utilizing the SDT test setup as a testbed for additional risk mitigation activities. Included are descriptions of the Subscale Diffuser (SD) test article, the test facility configuration, and test approaches.

Disaster mitigation and preparedness on the Nicaraguan post-Mitch agenda.

PubMed

Rocha, J L; Christoplos, I

2001-09-01

Nicaragua provides an example of how a major disaster, in this case Hurricane Mitch, can transform the national agenda for disaster mitigation and preparedness. Hurricane Mitch was a reminder of how extremely disaster prone Nicaragua is, and also how neoliberal reforms have weakened governmental response capacity. In the face of critiques of how governmental policies had affected preparedness and response, discussions of this transformation became a highly politicised process where the debate over alternative development models tended to overshadow the original calls to strengthen risk management. Progress can be seen in some areas, such as disaster mitigation through environmental management. This study of NGO roles, and their relations with other key actors, draws attention to the need to anchor improved risk management in local-level NGO-government collaboration. Structures are being put into place to achieve this aim, but dependence on donor financing raises questions regarding the longer-term sustainability of these efforts.

Application of Advanced Sensor Technology to DoD Soil Vapor Intrusion Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

that would be more representative of exposure levels and provide for a more accurate assessment of potential risk due to VI. In a study at a...concerns has been evolving in recent years, in an effort to better assess potential risks to human health and the environment and to mitigate or...has issued a directive concerning the hierarchy of human health toxicity values used for risk assessments (USEPA, 2003). In this hierarchy, USEPA

78 FR 34112 - Review and Revision of the National Infrastructure Protection Plan

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-06

... consider sector dependencies on energy and communications systems, and identify pre-event and mitigation... development efforts; Review of the risk management approach; Sector dependencies on energy and communications... framework going forward. Sector Dependencies on Energy and Communications Systems PPD-21 acknowledges the...

Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

2009-04-01

ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific queries, we have grouped engineering works in several categories that have been related to the characteristics and type of hazards Vs cost-benefit analysis and timing of each work. Implementing a statistical analysis of the ReNDiS database, it has been possible to attempt a first spatial and temporal comparison between zoning of risk and distribution of preventive measures with relative cost at national level. In synthesis, this study has shown that although the total amount of resources devoted to preventive measures are not enough to remove the risk over the entire territory, the response of Italian institutions is in general well calibrated on the characteristic and type of hazard, but still very complex. Further efforts are necessary in order to improve the knowledge on landslides and flood prone areas, also in the perspective of adaptation to climate changes and to better address the public investments where the hydro geological risk is more critical. The importance of this monitoring activities is mainly due to limited financial resources of the Italian public sector in soil protection. Data collection, monitoring activities and statistical analysis like the ones carried out in ReNDiS experience is one of the best way in order to optimise the allocation of financial resources for the mitigation of natural hazard and risk.

Living with wildfire in Colorado

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2010-01-01

In this presentation, we describe results of a survey to homeowners living in wildfire-prone areas of two counties along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. The survey was designed to elicit information on homeowners' experience with wildfire, perceptions of wildfire risk on their property and neighboring properties, mitigation efforts undertaken...

Integrating watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals...

Mitigating risks by integrating business continuity and security.

PubMed

Shaw, Scott; Smith, Nicholas

2010-11-01

There has been much discussion regarding the topic of business continuity and security convergence. This paper provides a realistic overview of the union of the two disciplines and offers no/low-cost programme elements that may be used for organisations considering or in the midst of convergence efforts.

Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; Jord J. Warmink

2017-01-01

Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of...

Failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree analysis of surface image guided cranial radiosurgery.

PubMed

Manger, Ryan P; Paxton, Adam B; Pawlicki, Todd; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2015-05-01

Surface image guided, Linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS) is a modern approach for delivering radiosurgery that utilizes optical stereoscopic imaging to monitor the surface of the patient during treatment in lieu of using a head frame for patient immobilization. Considering the novelty of the SIG-RS approach and the severity of errors associated with delivery of large doses per fraction, a risk assessment should be conducted to identify potential hazards, determine their causes, and formulate mitigation strategies. The purpose of this work is to investigate SIG-RS using the combined application of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA), report on the effort required to complete the analysis, and evaluate the use of FTA in conjunction with FMEA. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to conduct the FMEA on the SIG-RS process. A process map detailing the steps of the SIG-RS was created to guide the FMEA. Failure modes were determined for each step in the SIG-RS process, and risk priority numbers (RPNs) were estimated for each failure mode to facilitate risk stratification. The failure modes were ranked by RPN, and FTA was used to determine the root factors contributing to the riskiest failure modes. Using the FTA, mitigation strategies were formulated to address the root factors and reduce the risk of the process. The RPNs were re-estimated based on the mitigation strategies to determine the margin of risk reduction. The FMEA and FTAs for the top two failure modes required an effort of 36 person-hours (30 person-hours for the FMEA and 6 person-hours for two FTAs). The SIG-RS process consisted of 13 major subprocesses and 91 steps, which amounted to 167 failure modes. Of the 91 steps, 16 were directly related to surface imaging. Twenty-five failure modes resulted in a RPN of 100 or greater. Only one of these top 25 failure modes was specific to surface imaging. The riskiest surface imaging failure mode had an overall RPN-rank of eighth. Mitigation strategies for the top failure mode decreased the RPN from 288 to 72. Based on the FMEA performed in this work, the use of surface imaging for monitoring intrafraction position in Linac-based stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) did not greatly increase the risk of the Linac-based SRS process. In some cases, SIG helped to reduce the risk of Linac-based RS. The FMEA was augmented by the use of FTA since it divided the failure modes into their fundamental components, which simplified the task of developing mitigation strategies.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Space Launch System NASA Research Announcement Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crumbly, Christopher M.; Craig, Kellie D.

2011-01-01

The intent of the Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) effort is to: (1) Reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS (2) Enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Key Concepts (1) Offerors must propose an Advanced Booster concept that meets SLS Program requirements (2) Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction must relate to the Offeror s Advanced Booster concept (3) NASA Research Announcement (NRA) will not be prescriptive in defining Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction

Does the impact of biodiversity differ between emerging and endemic pathogens? The need to separate the concepts of hazard and risk.

PubMed

Hosseini, Parviez R; Mills, James N; Prieur-Richard, Anne-Hélène; Ezenwa, Vanessa O; Bailly, Xavier; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Suzán, Gerardo; Vittecoq, Marion; García-Peña, Gabriel E; Daszak, Peter; Guégan, Jean-François; Roche, Benjamin

2017-06-05

Biodiversity is of critical value to human societies, but recent evidence that biodiversity may mitigate infectious-disease risk has sparked controversy among researchers. The majority of work on this topic has focused on direct assessments of the relationship between biodiversity and endemic-pathogen prevalence, without disentangling intervening mechanisms; thus study outcomes often differ, fuelling more debate. Here, we suggest two critical changes to the approach researchers take to understanding relationships between infectious disease, both endemic and emerging, and biodiversity that may help clarify sources of controversy. First, the distinct concepts of hazards versus risks need to be separated to determine how biodiversity and its drivers may act differently on each. This distinction is particularly important since it illustrates that disease emergence drivers in humans could be quite different to the general relationship between biodiversity and transmission of endemic pathogens. Second, the interactive relationship among biodiversity, anthropogenic change and zoonotic disease risk, including both direct and indirect effects, needs to be recognized and accounted for. By carefully disentangling these interactions between humans' activities and pathogen circulation in wildlife, we suggest that conservation efforts could mitigate disease risks and hazards in novel ways that complement more typical disease control efforts.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Does the impact of biodiversity differ between emerging and endemic pathogens? The need to separate the concepts of hazard and risk

PubMed Central

Hosseini, Parviez R.; Mills, James N.; Prieur-Richard, Anne-Hélène; Bailly, Xavier; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Suzán, Gerardo; Vittecoq, Marion; Daszak, Peter; Guégan, Jean-François

2017-01-01

Biodiversity is of critical value to human societies, but recent evidence that biodiversity may mitigate infectious-disease risk has sparked controversy among researchers. The majority of work on this topic has focused on direct assessments of the relationship between biodiversity and endemic-pathogen prevalence, without disentangling intervening mechanisms; thus study outcomes often differ, fuelling more debate. Here, we suggest two critical changes to the approach researchers take to understanding relationships between infectious disease, both endemic and emerging, and biodiversity that may help clarify sources of controversy. First, the distinct concepts of hazards versus risks need to be separated to determine how biodiversity and its drivers may act differently on each. This distinction is particularly important since it illustrates that disease emergence drivers in humans could be quite different to the general relationship between biodiversity and transmission of endemic pathogens. Second, the interactive relationship among biodiversity, anthropogenic change and zoonotic disease risk, including both direct and indirect effects, needs to be recognized and accounted for. By carefully disentangling these interactions between humans' activities and pathogen circulation in wildlife, we suggest that conservation efforts could mitigate disease risks and hazards in novel ways that complement more typical disease control efforts. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’. PMID:28438918

A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle

PubMed Central

Mayo, Christie; Shelley, Courtney; MacLachlan, N. James; Gardner, Ian; Hartley, David; Barker, Christopher

2016-01-01

The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTV-endemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV’s basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission. PMID:27812161

Exploiting Science: Enhancing the Safety Training of Pilots to Reduce the Risk of Bird Strikes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendonca, Flavio A. C.

Analysis of bird strikes to aviation in the U.S. from 1990 to 2015 indicate that the successful mitigation efforts at airports, which must be sustained, have reduced incidents with damage and a negative effect-on-flight since 2000. However, such efforts have done little to reduce strikes outside the airport jurisdiction, such as occurred with US Airways Flight 1549 in 2009. There are basically three strategies to mitigate the risk of bird strikes: standards set by aviation authorities, technology, and actions by crewmembers. Pilots play an important role as stakeholders in the prevention of bird strikes, especially outside the airport environment. Thus, safety efforts require enhanced risk management and aeronautical decision-making training for flight crews. The purpose of this study was to determine if a safety training protocol could effectively enhance CFR Part 141 general aviation pilots' knowledge and skills to reduce the risk of bird strikes to aviation. Participants were recruited from the Purdue University professional flight program and from Purdue Aviation. The researcher of this study used a pretest posttest experimental design. Additionally, qualitative data were collected through open-ended questions in the pretest, posttest, and a follow-up survey questionnaire. The participants' pretest and posttest scores were analyzed using parametric and nonparametric tests. Results indicated a significant increase in the posttest scores of the experimental group. An investigation of qualitative data showed that the topic "safety management of bird hazards by pilots" is barely covered during the ground and flight training of pilots. Furthermore, qualitative data suggest a misperception of the safety culture tenets and a poor familiarity with the safety risk management process regarding bird hazards. Finally, the researcher presented recommendations for practice and future research.

Interdisciplinary approach to hydrological hazard mitigation and disaster response and effects of climate change on the occurrence of flood severity in central Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontar, Y. Y.; Bhatt, U. S.; Lindsey, S. D.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R. L.

2015-06-01

In May 2013, a massive ice jam on the Yukon River caused flooding that destroyed much of the infrastructure in the Interior Alaska village of Galena and forced the long-term evacuation of nearly 70% of its residents. This case study compares the communication efforts of the out-of-state emergency response agents with those of the Alaska River Watch program, a state-operated flood preparedness and community outreach initiative. For over 50 years, the River Watch program has been fostering long-lasting, open, and reciprocal communication with flood prone communities, as well as local emergency management and tribal officials. By taking into account cultural, ethnic, and socioeconomic features of rural Alaskan communities, the River Watch program was able to establish and maintain a sense of partnership and reliable communication patterns with communities at risk. As a result, officials and residents in these communities are open to information and guidance from the River Watch during the time of a flood, and thus are poised to take prompt actions. By informing communities of existing ice conditions and flood threats on a regular basis, the River Watch provides effective mitigation efforts in terms of ice jam flood effects reduction. Although other ice jam mitigation attempts had been made throughout US and Alaskan history, the majority proved to be futile and/or cost-ineffective. Galena, along with other rural riverine Alaskan communities, has to rely primarily on disaster response and recovery strategies to withstand the shock of disasters. Significant government funds are spent on these challenging efforts and these expenses might be reduced through an improved understanding of both the physical and climatological principals behind river ice breakup and risk mitigation. This study finds that long term dialogue is critical for effective disaster response and recovery during extreme hydrological events connected to changing climate, timing of river ice breakup, and flood occurrence in rural communities of the Far North.

Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garner, Trenton W. J.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin L.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C.; Bosch, Jaime

2016-01-01

Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

Computational Fact Checking by Mining Knowledge Graphs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shiralkar, Prashant

2017-01-01

Misinformation and rumors have become rampant on online social platforms with adverse consequences for the real world. Fact-checking efforts are needed to mitigate the risks associated with the spread of digital misinformation. However, the pace at which information is generated online limits the capacity to fact-check claims at the same rate…

What to Expect During In-Flight Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kosobud, Beth; Perry, Marc; Schwanbeck, Nichole

2017-01-01

Executing human research on ISS has to navigate a unique risk environment. NASA planning efforts focus on an investigation's in-flight success but much of the threats to research objectives are not mitigated. A balanced requirement set affords the ability to remain flexible for each subject's data set while protecting the study's integrity across all subjects.

Stakeholder Perceptions of Risk in Construction.

PubMed

Zhao, Dong; McCoy, Andrew P; Kleiner, Brian M; Mills, Thomas H; Lingard, Helen

2016-02-01

Safety management in construction is an integral effort and its success requires inputs from all stakeholders across design and construction phases. Effective risk mitigation relies on the concordance of all stakeholders' risk perceptions. Many researchers have noticed the discordance of risk perceptions among critical stakeholders in safe construction work, however few have provided quantifiable evidence describing them. In an effort to fill this perception gap, this research performs an experiment that investigates stakeholder perceptions of risk in construction. Data analysis confirms the existence of such discordance, and indicates a trend in risk likelihood estimation. With risk perceptions from low to high, the stakeholders are architects, contractors/safety professionals, and engineers. Including prior studies, results also suggest that designers have improved their knowledge in building construction safety, but compared to builders they present more difficultly in reaching a consensus of perception. Findings of this research are intended to be used by risk management and decision makers to reassess stakeholders' varying judgments when considering injury prevention and hazard assessment.

Stakeholder Perceptions of Risk in Construction

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dong; McCoy, Andrew P.; Kleiner, Brian M.; Mills, Thomas H.; Lingard, Helen

2015-01-01

Safety management in construction is an integral effort and its success requires inputs from all stakeholders across design and construction phases. Effective risk mitigation relies on the concordance of all stakeholders’ risk perceptions. Many researchers have noticed the discordance of risk perceptions among critical stakeholders in safe construction work, however few have provided quantifiable evidence describing them. In an effort to fill this perception gap, this research performs an experiment that investigates stakeholder perceptions of risk in construction. Data analysis confirms the existence of such discordance, and indicates a trend in risk likelihood estimation. With risk perceptions from low to high, the stakeholders are architects, contractors/safety professionals, and engineers. Including prior studies, results also suggest that designers have improved their knowledge in building construction safety, but compared to builders they present more difficultly in reaching a consensus of perception. Findings of this research are intended to be used by risk management and decision makers to reassess stakeholders’ varying judgments when considering injury prevention and hazard assessment. PMID:26441481

Assessing patterns of human-wildlife conflicts and compensation around a Central Indian protected area.

PubMed

Karanth, Krithi K; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

2012-01-01

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km(2) area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur.

Assessing Patterns of Human-Wildlife Conflicts and Compensation around a Central Indian Protected Area

PubMed Central

Karanth, Krithi K.; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

2012-01-01

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km2 area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur. PMID:23227173

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Managing Risk for Cassini During Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MOandDA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.

2002-01-01

A Risk Management Process has been tailored for Cassini that not only satisfies the requirements of NASA and JPL, but also allows the Program to proactively identify and assess risks that threaten mission objectives. Cassini Risk Management is a team effort that involves both management and engineering staff. The process is managed and facilitated by the Mission Assurance Manager (MAM), but requires regular interactions with Program Staff and team members to instill the risk management philosophy into the day to day mission operations. While Risk Management is well defined for projects in the development phase, it is a relatively new concept for Mission Operations. The Cassini team has embraced this process and has begun using it in an effective, proactive manner, to ensure mission success. It is hoped that the Cassini Risk Management Process will form the basis by which risk management is conducted during MO&DA on future projects. proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working put into place will become visible and will be illusmted in future papers.

Advanced National Seismic System—Current status, development opportunities, and priorities for 2017–2027

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2017-05-25

SummaryEarthquakes pose a threat to the safety of over 143 million people living in the United States. Earthquake impacts can be significantly reduced if communities understand their risk and take proactive steps to mitigate that risk. The Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) is a cooperative effort to collect and analyze seismic and geodetic data on earthquakes, issue timely and reliable notifications of their occurrence and impacts, and provide data for earthquake research and the hazard and risk assessments that are the foundation for creating an earthquakeresilient nation.

Learning from Failures: Archiving and Designing with Failure and Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanWie, Michael; Bohm, Matt; Barrientos, Francesca; Turner, Irem; Stone, Robert

2005-01-01

Identifying and mitigating risks during conceptual design remains an ongoing challenge. This work presents the results of collaborative efforts between The University of Missouri-Rolla and NASA Ames Research Center to examine how an early stage mission design team at NASA addresses risk, and, how a computational support tool can assist these designers in their tasks. Results of our observations are given in addition to a brief example of our implementation of a repository based computational tool that allows users to browse and search through archived failure and risk data as related to either physical artifacts or functionality.

Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2016-04-01

The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

Defining "Acceptable Risk" for Earthquakes Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, B.

2001-05-01

The greatest and most rapidly growing earthquake risk for mortality is in developing countries. Further, earthquake risk management actions of the last 50 years have reduced the average lethality of earthquakes in earthquake-threatened industrialized countries. (This is separate from the trend of the increasing fiscal cost of earthquakes there.) Despite these clear trends, every new earthquake in developing countries is described in the media as a "wake up" call, announcing the risk these countries face. GeoHazards International (GHI) works at both the community and the policy levels to try to reduce earthquake risk. GHI reduces death and injury by helping vulnerable communities recognize their risk and the methods to manage it, by raising awareness of its risk, building local institutions to manage that risk, and strengthening schools to protect and train the community's future generations. At the policy level, GHI, in collaboration with research partners, is examining whether "acceptance" of these large risks by people in these countries and by international aid and development organizations explains the lack of activity in reducing these risks. The goal of this pilot project - The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) - is to develop and evaluate a means of measuring the risk and the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions in the world's largest, most vulnerable cities: in short, to develop an earthquake risk index. One application of this index is to compare the risk and the risk mitigation effort of "comparable" cities. By this means, Lima, for example, can compare the risk of its citizens dying due to earthquakes with the risk of citizens in Santiago and Guayaquil. The authorities of Delhi and Islamabad can compare the relative risk from earthquakes of their school children. This index can be used to measure the effectiveness of alternate mitigation projects, to set goals for mitigation projects, and to plot progress meeting those goals. The preliminary results suggest that the comparisons of the participating cities are easily understood, and defensible. The evaluation of the sources of El Salvador's risk, made before the January 13th earthquake, pointed to the vulnerability made visible by the earthquake: earthquake-induced landslides, and difficulties with emergency response.

Prediction of fishing effort distributions using boosted regression trees.

PubMed

Soykan, Candan U; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Kohin, Suzanne; Dewar, Heidi

2014-01-01

Concerns about bycatch of protected species have become a dominant factor shaping fisheries management. However, efforts to mitigate bycatch are often hindered by a lack of data on the distributions of fishing effort and protected species. One approach to overcoming this problem has been to overlay the distribution of past fishing effort with known locations of protected species, often obtained through satellite telemetry and occurrence data, to identify potential bycatch hotspots. This approach, however, generates static bycatch risk maps, calling into question their ability to forecast into the future, particularly when dealing with spatiotemporally dynamic fisheries and highly migratory bycatch species. In this study, we use boosted regression trees to model the spatiotemporal distribution of fishing effort for two distinct fisheries in the North Pacific Ocean, the albacore (Thunnus alalunga) troll fishery and the California drift gillnet fishery that targets swordfish (Xiphias gladius). Our results suggest that it is possible to accurately predict fishing effort using < 10 readily available predictor variables (cross-validated correlations between model predictions and observed data -0.6). Although the two fisheries are quite different in their gears and fishing areas, their respective models had high predictive ability, even when input data sets were restricted to a fraction of the full time series. The implications for conservation and management are encouraging: Across a range of target species, fishing methods, and spatial scales, even a relatively short time series of fisheries data may suffice to accurately predict the location of fishing effort into the future. In combination with species distribution modeling of bycatch species, this approach holds promise as a mitigation tool when observer data are limited. Even in data-rich regions, modeling fishing effort and bycatch may provide more accurate estimates of bycatch risk than partial observer coverage for fisheries and bycatch species that are heavily influenced by dynamic oceanographic conditions.

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew

2015-01-01

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Managing Large Scale Project Analysis Teams through a Web Accessible Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neil, Daniel A.

2008-01-01

Large scale space programs analyze thousands of requirements while mitigating safety, performance, schedule, and cost risks. These efforts involve a variety of roles with interdependent use cases and goals. For example, study managers and facilitators identify ground-rules and assumptions for a collection of studies required for a program or project milestone. Task leaders derive product requirements from the ground rules and assumptions and describe activities to produce needed analytical products. Disciplined specialists produce the specified products and load results into a file management system. Organizational and project managers provide the personnel and funds to conduct the tasks. Each role has responsibilities to establish information linkages and provide status reports to management. Projects conduct design and analysis cycles to refine designs to meet the requirements and implement risk mitigation plans. At the program level, integrated design and analysis cycles studies are conducted to eliminate every 'to-be-determined' and develop plans to mitigate every risk. At the agency level, strategic studies analyze different approaches to exploration architectures and campaigns. This paper describes a web-accessible database developed by NASA to coordinate and manage tasks at three organizational levels. Other topics in this paper cover integration technologies and techniques for process modeling and enterprise architectures.

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Klonner, Günther; Rammer, Werner; Essl, Franz; Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Dullinger, Stefan

2018-04-24

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Managing health and safety risks: Implications for tailoring health and safety management system practices.

PubMed

Willmer, D R; Haas, E J

2016-01-01

As national and international health and safety management system (HSMS) standards are voluntarily accepted or regulated into practice, organizations are making an effort to modify and integrate strategic elements of a connected management system into their daily risk management practices. In high-risk industries such as mining, that effort takes on added importance. The mining industry has long recognized the importance of a more integrated approach to recognizing and responding to site-specific risks, encouraging the adoption of a risk-based management framework. Recently, the U.S. National Mining Association led the development of an industry-specific HSMS built on the strategic frameworks of ANSI: Z10, OHSAS 18001, The American Chemistry Council's Responsible Care, and ILO-OSH 2001. All of these standards provide strategic guidance and focus on how to incorporate a plan-do-check-act cycle into the identification, management and evaluation of worksite risks. This paper details an exploratory study into whether practices associated with executing a risk-based management framework are visible through the actions of an organization's site-level management of health and safety risks. The results of this study show ways that site-level leaders manage day-to-day risk at their operations that can be characterized according to practices associated with a risk-based management framework. Having tangible operational examples of day-to-day risk management can serve as a starting point for evaluating field-level risk assessment efforts and their alignment to overall company efforts at effective risk mitigation through a HSMS or other processes.

2012 AAPS National Biotech Conference Open Forum: a perspective on the current state of immunogenicity prediction and risk management.

PubMed

Rajadhyaksha, Manoj; Subramanyam, Meena; Rup, Bonnie

2013-10-01

The immunogenicity profile of a biotherapeutic is determined by multiple product-, process- or manufacturing-, patient- and treatment-related factors and the bioanalytical methodology used to monitor for immunogenicity. This creates a complex situation that limits direct correlation of individual factors to observed immunogenicity rates. Therefore, mechanistic understanding of how these factors individually or in concert could influence the overall incidence and clinical risk of immunogenicity is crucial to provide the best benefit/risk profile for a given biotherapeutic in a given indication and to inform risk mitigation strategies. Advances in the field of immunogenicity have included development of best practices for monitoring anti-drug antibody development, categorization of risk factors contributing to immunogenicity, development of predictive tools, and development of effective strategies for risk management and mitigation. Thus, the opportunity to ask "where we are now and where we would like to go from here?" was the main driver for organizing an Open Forum on Improving Immunogenicity Risk Prediction and Management, conducted at the 2012 American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists' (AAPS) National Biotechnology Conference in San Diego. The main objectives of the Forum include the following: to understand the nature of immunogenicity risk factors, to identify analytical tools used and animal models and management strategies needed to improve their predictive value, and finally to identify collaboration opportunities to improve the reliability of risk prediction, mitigation, and management. This meeting report provides the Forum participant's and author's perspectives on the barriers to advancing this field and recommendations for overcoming these barriers through collaborative efforts.

MISSIONS: The Mobile-Based Disaster Mitigation System in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passarella, Rossi; Putri Raflesia, Sarifah; Lestarini, Dinda; Rifai, Ahmad; Veny, Harumi

2018-04-01

Disaster mitigation is essential to minimize the effects of disasters. Indonesia is one of the disaster prone areas in Asia and the government explores the usage of Information technology (IT) to aid its mitigation efforts. Currently, there are Indonesian websites which hold information regarding the weather monitoring, climate conditions, and geophysics. But, there is no clear indicator of mitigation efforts or things to do during an emergency. Therefore, this research proposed MISSIONS, a disaster mitigation model using geo-fencing technique to detect the location of the users through their mobile devices. MISSIONS uses mobile-based disaster mitigation system as a way to disseminate critical information to victims during emergency when they are in disaster zones using virtual fences. It aims to help the government to reduce the effects of disaster and aid in the mitigation efforts. The implementation result shows that MISSIONS have a high accuracy in detecting user whereabouts.

Requirement Metrics for Risk Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore; Huffman, Lenore; Wilson, William; Rosenberg, Linda; Hyatt, Lawrence

1996-01-01

The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) is part of the Office of Mission Assurance of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The SATC's mission is to assist National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) projects to improve the quality of software which they acquire or develop. The SATC's efforts are currently focused on the development and use of metric methodologies and tools that identify and assess risks associated with software performance and scheduled delivery. This starts at the requirements phase, where the SATC, in conjunction with software projects at GSFC and other NASA centers is working to identify tools and metric methodologies to assist project managers in identifying and mitigating risks. This paper discusses requirement metrics currently being used at NASA in a collaborative effort between the SATC and the Quality Assurance Office at GSFC to utilize the information available through the application of requirements management tools.

Interdependencies and Risks at the Nexus of Energy, Water, and Land Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geernaert, G. L.

2016-12-01

During recent years, the federal agencies have rallied around efforts to understand and predict the interdependencies involving various combinations of energy infrastructure and supply, water supply and quality, and land use that combines agriculture and food production. The US Department of Energy has, in particular, focused on the energy-water nexus, with specific goals to understand the degree of interdependence that leads to multi-sector risk and, in the worst case, the precursors that can lead to cascading failure. Determining thresholds for system interdependence, evaluating the impact of drought on systems, and planning for robust mitigation options to avert future risks, are among DOE's highest research priorities. In this presentation, the DOE program plan and its rationale will be described; and the DOE plan will be placed in context of broader efforts across the federal government.

A public health hazard mitigation planning process.

PubMed

Griffith, Jennifer M; Kay Carpender, S; Crouch, Jill Artzberger; Quiram, Barbara J

2014-01-01

The Texas A&M Health Science Center School of Rural Public Health, a member of the Training and Education Collaborative System Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center (TECS-PERLC), has long-standing partnerships with 2 Health Service Regions (Regions) in Texas. TECS-PERLC was contracted by these Regions to address 2 challenges identified in meeting requirements outlined by the Risk-Based Funding Project. First, within Metropolitan Statistical Areas, there is not a formal authoritative structure. Second, preexisting tools and processes did not adequately satisfy requirements to assess public health, medical, and mental health needs and link mitigation strategies to the Public Health Preparedness Capabilities, which provide guidance to prepare for, respond to, and recover from public health incidents. TECS-PERLC, with its partners, developed a framework to interpret and apply results from the Texas Public Health Risk Assessment Tool (TxPHRAT). The 3-phase community engagement-based TxPHRAT Mitigation Planning Process (Mitigation Planning Process) and associated tools facilitated the development of mitigation plans. Tools included (1) profiles interpreting TxPHRAT results and identifying, ranking, and prioritizing hazards and capability gaps; (2) a catalog of intervention strategies and activities linked to hazards and capabilities; and (3) a template to plan, evaluate, and report mitigation planning efforts. The Mitigation Planning Process provided a framework for Regions to successfully address all funding requirements. TECS-PERLC developed more than 60 profiles, cataloged and linked 195 intervention strategies, and developed a template resulting in 20 submitted mitigation plans. A public health-focused, community engagement-based mitigation planning process was developed by TECS-PERLC and successfully implemented by the Regions. The outcomes met all requirements and reinforce the effectiveness of academic practice partnerships and importance of community engagement in mitigation planning. Additional funding has been approved to expand the Mitigation Planning Process to all counties in Texas with local health departments.

Quantifying and Addressing the DOE Material Reactivity Requirements with Analysis and Testing of Hydrogen Storage Materials & Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Y. F.

2012-04-30

The objective of this project is to examine safety aspects of candidate hydrogen storage materials and systems being developed in the DOE Hydrogen Program. As a result of this effort, the general DOE safety target will be given useful meaning by establishing a link between the characteristics of new storage materials and the satisfaction of safety criteria. This will be accomplished through the development and application of formal risk analysis methods, standardized materials testing, chemical reactivity characterization, novel risk mitigation approaches and subscale system demonstration. The project also will collaborate with other DOE and international activities in materials based hydrogenmore » storage safety to provide a larger, highly coordinated effort.« less

Two Years of International Cooperation on Conjunction Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelso, T. S.

2010-09-01

In an effort to mitigate the risks associated with satellite close approaches in the geostationary belt, several satellite operators came together in early 2008 to establish what is now known as the GEO Data Center. The GEO Data Center initially provided a framework for satellite operators to share orbital data for their fleets of satellites to be used to perform conjunction analysis and provide automated notification of close approaches via the SOCRATES-GEO system. After two years of operations, the GEO Data Center now has 14 members providing data for 186 satellites. Since the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision, a parallel system was set up with a LEO Data Center, which already has seven members providing data for 101 satellites. These data centers have already shown the significant benefit of sharing orbital data, particularly in terms of reducing positional uncertainty and, thereby, the number of false alarms. This paper will address the current framework for these efforts, highlighting how a service-oriented architecture is used to support orbital operations and increase efficiency of analysis and resolution of risk-mitigation tasks. It will show how the interactive work flow is used to quickly assess new maneuvers to determine whether they have successfully reduced the chances of a particular close approach without causing other close approaches elsewhere. It will also show how independent space situational awareness organizations can be employed to provide a more complete picture of the threat from nonparticipating satellites and the debris population.

Overview of the NEES-Soft Experimental Program for Seismic Risk Reduction of Soft-Story Woodframe Buildings

Treesearch

John W. van de Lindt; Pouria Bahmani; Steven E. Pryor; Gary Mochizuki; Mikhail Gershfeld; Weichiang Pang; Ershad Ziaei; Elaina N. Jennings; Michael D. Symans; Xiaoyun Shao; Jingjing Tian; Doug Rammer

2014-01-01

The existence of thousands of soft-story woodframe buildings in California has been recognized as a disaster preparedness problem resulting in mitigation efforts throughout the state. The considerable presence of these large multi-family buildings in San Francisco prompted the city to mandate their retrofitting over the next seven years. The NEES-Soft project, whose...

Harmonising the Efforts of School Nurses and Teachers in Health Promotion in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwatubana, Siphokazi

2018-01-01

A vital facet that adds value to schools is the partnership between the departments of education and health at national level. At the heart of making this partnership effective in order to achieve its potential is the need for synchronisation of the roles of school nurses and teachers to mitigate sustainability risks. In order to investigate the…

Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. This FOSS approach can promotes transparency and accountability through a process of "guided discovery". Moreover, the immediacy with which information is presented by the qualitative flood risk map, can facilitate and speed up the process of knowledge acquisition. An application of FloodRisk model is showed on a pilot case in "Serio" Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been highlighted focusing on the utility of the results provided for the development of FRMPs. Although they still present limits which prevent the FloodRisk application without critically consider the peculiarities of the investigated area in terms of available knowledge on hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the proposed approach surely produces an increase in available knowledge of flood risk and its drivers. This further information cannot be neglected for defining risk mitigation objectives and strategies. Hence, considering the ongoing efforts in the improvement of data availability and quality, FloodRisk could be a suitable tool for the next revision of flood risk maps due by December 2019, supporting effectively Italian and EU practitioners in the delineation of FRMPs (and for flood risk management in general).

Dexterous Orbital Servicing System (DOSS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Charles R.; Berka, Reginald B.; Chladek, John T.

1994-01-01

The Dexterous Orbiter Servicing System (DOSS) is a dexterous robotic spaceflight system that is based on the manipulator designed as part of the Flight Telerobotics Servicer program for the Space Station Freedom and built during a 'technology capture' effort that was commissioned when the FTS was cancelled from the Space Station Freedom program. The FTS technology capture effort yielded one flight manipulator and the 1 g hydraulic simulator that had been designed as an integrated test tool and crew trainer. The DOSS concept was developed to satisfy needs of the telerobotics research community, the space shuttle, and the space station. As a flight testbed, DOSS would serve as a baseline reference for testing the performance of advanced telerobotics and intelligent robotics components. For shuttle, the DOSS, configured as a movable dexterous tool, would be used to provide operational flexibility for payload operations and contingency operations. As a risk mitigation flight demonstration, the DOSS would serve the International Space Station to characterize the end to end system performance of the Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator performing assembly and maintenance tasks with actual ISSA orbital replacement units. Currently, the most likely entrance of the DOSS into spaceflight is a risk mitigation flight experiment for the International Space Station.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

LOD BIM Element specification for Railway Turnout Systems Risk Mitigation using the Information Delivery Manual

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigante-Barrera, Ángel; Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; Ruikar, Darshan

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are complex systems designed using complex geometries and grades which makes them difficult to be managed in terms of risk prevention. This feature poses a substantial peril to rail users as it is considered a cause of derailment. In addition, derailment deals to financial losses due to operational downtimes and monetary compensations in case of death or injure. These are fundamental drivers to consider mitigating risks arising from poor risk management during design. Prevention through design (PtD) is a process that introduces tacit knowledge from industry professionals during the design process. There is evidence that Building Information Modelling (BIM) can help to mitigate risk since the inception of the project. BIM is considered an Information System (IS) were tacit knowledge can be stored and retrieved from a digital database making easy to take promptly decisions as information is ready to be analysed. BIM at the model element level entails working with 3D elements and embedded data, therefore adding a layer of complexity to the management of information along the different stages of the project and across different disciplines. In order to overcome this problem, the industry has created a framework for model progression specification named Level of Development (LOD). The paper presents an IDM based framework for design risk mitigation through code validation using the LOD. This effort resulted on risk datasets which describe graphically and non-graphically a rail turnout as the model progresses. Thus, permitting its inclusion within risk information systems. The assignment of an LOD construct to a set of data, requires specialised management and process related expertise. Furthermore, the selection of a set of LOD constructs requires a purpose based analysis. Therefore, a framework for LOD constructs implementation within the IDM for code checking is required for the industry to progress in this particular field.

Office of Biological and Physical Research: Overview Transitioning to the Vision for Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crouch, Roger

2004-01-01

Viewgraphs on NASA's transition to its vision for space exploration is presented. The topics include: 1) Strategic Directives Guiding the Human Support Technology Program; 2) Progressive Capabilities; 3) A Journey to Inspire, Innovate, and Discover; 4) Risk Mitigation Status Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Countermeasures Readiness Level (CRL); 5) Biological And Physical Research Enterprise Aligning With The Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 6) Critical Path Roadmap Reference Missions; 7) Rating Risks; 8) Current Critical Path Roadmap (Draft) Rating Risks: Human Health; 9) Current Critical Path Roadmap (Draft) Rating Risks: System Performance/Efficiency; 10) Biological And Physical Research Enterprise Efforts to Align With Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 11) Aligning with the Vision: Exploration Research Areas of Emphasis; 12) Code U Efforts To Align With The Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 13) Types of Critical Path Roadmap Risks; and 14) ISS Human Support Systems Research, Development, and Demonstration. A summary discussing the vision for U.S. space exploration is also provided.

The US Food and Drug Administration's Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Program - Current Status and Future Direction.

PubMed

Wu, Jasmanda; Juhaeri, Juhaeri

2016-12-01

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 granted the FDA new authorities to enhance drug safety by requiring application holders to submit a proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS). A REMS is a required risk management plan that uses tools beyond the package insert. REMS elements may include a medication guide and patient package insert for patients and a communication plan focused on health care professionals. Elements to assure safe use (ETASUs) are put in place to mitigate a specific known serious risk when other less restrictive elements of a REMS are not sufficient to mitigate such risk. An implementation system is required for an REMS that includes the ETASUs. With approximately eight years of experience with REMS programs, many health care settings have created systems to manage REMS and also to integrate REMS into their practice settings. At the same time, there are issues associated with the development and implementation of REMS. In 2011, FDA created the REMS Integration Initiative to develop guidance on how to apply statutory criteria to determine when a REMS is required, to improve standardization and assessment of REMS, and to improve integration of REMS into the existing healthcare system. A key component of the REMS Integration Initiative is stakeholder outreach to better understand how existing REMS programs are working and to identify opportunities for improvement. This review attempts to share our company's experience with the REMS program, and to provide updates on FDA's efforts to improve REMS communication, to standardize REMS process, to reduce REMS program burdens and to build a common REMS platform. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Improved understanding of geologic CO{sub 2} storage processes requires risk-driven field experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, C.M.

2011-06-01

The need for risk-driven field experiments for CO{sub 2} geologic storage processes to complement ongoing pilot-scale demonstrations is discussed. These risk-driven field experiments would be aimed at understanding the circumstances under which things can go wrong with a CO{sub 2} capture and storage (CCS) project and cause it to fail, as distinguished from accomplishing this end using demonstration and industrial scale sites. Such risk-driven tests would complement risk-assessment efforts that have already been carried out by providing opportunities to validate risk models. In addition to experimenting with high-risk scenarios, these controlled field experiments could help validate monitoring approaches to improvemore » performance assessment and guide development of mitigation strategies.« less

Assessing the risks for poliovirus outbreaks in polio-free countries--Africa, 2012-2013.

PubMed

2013-09-20

In 2012, the World Health Assembly of the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the completion of polio eradication a programmatic emergency. Indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission remains uninterrupted in Nigeria (in the WHO African Region [AFR]) and in Afghanistan and Pakistan (in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region [EMR]). In the WHO AFR, multiple WPV outbreaks have occurred since 2003 after importation of indigenous West African WPV into 21 previously polio-free countries in a "WPV importation belt"* that extends across the continent. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) and WHO regional offices have used indicators of population immunity, surveillance quality, and other factors (e.g., high-risk subpopulations and proximity to WPV-affected countries) to assess the risk for outbreaks in polio-free countries and guide the implementation of risk mitigation measures to limit poliovirus transmission after WPV importation and prevent the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV). Despite risk mitigation efforts, a polio outbreak, first confirmed in May 2013, is ongoing; as of September 10, a total of 178 WPV type 1 (WPV1) cases have been reported in Somalia† (163 cases), Kenya (14 cases) and Ethiopia (1 case), after importation of WPV1 of West African origin. This report summarizes steps taken by the GPEI to assess and mitigate the risks for outbreaks after WPV importation or the emergence of cVDPV in polio-free countries within the WHO AFR's "WPV importation belt." All countries will continue to have some level of risk for WPV outbreaks as long as endemic circulation continues in Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan.

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuerzer, T.

2014-12-01

This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building resiliency in a region with development pressures.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

The influence of mitigation on sage-grouse habitat selection within an energy development field.

PubMed

Fedy, Bradley C; Kirol, Christopher P; Sutphin, Andrew L; Maechtle, Thomas L

2015-01-01

Growing global energy demands ensure the continued growth of energy development. Energy development in wildlife areas can significantly impact wildlife populations. Efforts to mitigate development impacts to wildlife are on-going, but the effectiveness of such efforts is seldom monitored or assessed. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are sensitive to energy development and likely serve as an effective umbrella species for other sagebrush-steppe obligate wildlife. We assessed the response of birds within an energy development area before and after the implementation of mitigation action. Additionally, we quantified changes in habitat distribution and abundance in pre- and post-mitigation landscapes. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development at large spatial scales is well documented. We limited our research to directly within an energy development field in order to assess the influence of mitigation in close proximity to energy infrastructure. We used nest-location data (n = 488) within an energy development field to develop habitat selection models using logistic regression on data from 4 years of research prior to mitigation and for 4 years following the implementation of extensive mitigation efforts (e.g., decreased activity, buried powerlines). The post-mitigation habitat selection models indicated less avoidance of wells (well density β = 0.18 ± 0.08) than the pre-mitigation models (well density β = -0.09 ± 0.11). However, birds still avoided areas of high well density and nests were not found in areas with greater than 4 wells per km2 and the majority of nests (63%) were located in areas with ≤ 1 well per km2. Several other model coefficients differed between the two time periods and indicated stronger selection for sagebrush (pre-mitigation β = 0.30 ± 0.09; post-mitigation β = 0.82 ± 0.08) and less avoidance of rugged terrain (pre-mitigation β = -0.35 ± 0.12; post-mitigation β = -0.05 ± 0.09). Mitigation efforts implemented may be responsible for the measurable improvement in sage-grouse nesting habitats within the development area. However, we cannot reject alternative hypotheses concerning the influence of population density and intraspecific competition. Additionally, we were unable to assess the actual fitness consequences of mitigation or the source-sink dynamics of the habitats. We compared the pre-mitigation and post-mitigation models predicted as maps with habitats ranked from low to high relative probability of use (equal-area bins: 1 - 5). We found more improvement in habitat rank between the two time periods around mitigated wells compared to non-mitigated wells. Informed mitigation within energy development fields could help improve habitats within the field. We recommend that any mitigation effort include well-informed plans to monitor the effectiveness of the implemented mitigation actions that assess both habitat use and relevant fitness parameters.

Informed or Overwhelmed? A Legislative History of Student Loan Counseling with a Literature Review on the Efficacy of Loan Counseling. Research Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klepfer, Kasey

2015-01-01

This report (the first in a series of five) explores congressional efforts to mitigate that risk and encourage informed borrowing by enacting statutes related to student loan counseling. After introducing the relevant contemporary policy context, it examines how federal rules governing student loan counseling evolved over time to embrace online…

Interpreting federal policy at the local level: the wildland-urban interface concept in wildfire protection planning in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Grayzeck-Souter; Kristen C. Nelson; Rachel F. Brummel; Pamela Jakes; Daniel R. Williams

2009-01-01

In 2003, the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA) called for USA communities at risk of wildfire to develop Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) requiring local, state and federal actors to work together to address hazardous fuels reduction and mitigation efforts. CWPPs can provide the opportunity for local government to influence actions on adjacent public...

Quake warnings, seismic culture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Richard M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Huggins, Tom; Miles, Scott; Otegui, Diego

2017-01-01

Since 1990, nearly one million people have died from the impacts of earthquakes. Reducing those impacts requires building a local seismic culture in which residents are aware of earthquake risks and value efforts to mitigate harm. Such efforts include earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that provide seconds to minutes notice of pending shaking. Recent events in Mexico provide an opportunity to assess performance and perception of an EEW system and highlight areas for further improvement. We have learned that EEW systems, even imperfect ones, can help people prepare for earthquakes and build local seismic culture, both beneficial in reducing earthquake-related losses.

Assessing the costs of hazard mitigation through landscape interventions in the urban structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru-Dan, Maria; Aldea Mendes, Diana; Panagopoulos, Thomas

2014-05-01

In this paper we look at an issue rarely approached, the economic efficiency of natural hazard risk mitigation. The urban scale at which a natural hazard can impact leads to the importance of urban planning strategy in risk management. However, usually natural, engineering, and social sciences deal with it, and the role of architecture and urban planning is neglected. Climate change can lead to risks related to increased floods, desertification, sea level rise among others. Reducing the sealed surfaces in cities through green spaces in the crowded centres can mitigate them, and can be foreseen in restructuration plans in presence or absence of disasters. For this purpose we reviewed the role of green spaces and community centres such as churches in games, which can build the core for restructuration efforts, as also field and archive studies show. We look at the way ICT can contribute to organize the information from the building survey to economic computations in direct modeling or through games. The roles of game theory, agent based modeling and networks and urban public policies in designing decision systems for risk management are discussed. Games rules are at the same time supported by our field and archive studies, as well as research by design. Also we take into consideration at a rare element, which is the role of landscape planning, through the inclusion of green elements in reconstruction after the natural and man-made disasters, or in restructuration efforts to mitigate climate change. Apart of existing old city tissue also landscape can be endangered by speculation and therefore it is vital to highlight its high economic value, also in this particular case. As ICOMOS highlights for the 2014 congress, heritage and landscape are two sides of the same coin. Landscape can become or be connected to a community centre, the first being necessary for building a settlement, the second raising its value, or can build connections between landmarks in urban routes. For this reason location plays a role not only for mitigating the effects of hazards but also for increasing the value of land through vicinities. Games are only another way to build a model of the complex system which is the urban organism in this regard, and a model is easier to be analysed than the system while displaying its basic rules. The role of landscape of building roads of memory between landmarks in the reconstruction is yet to be investigated in a future proposed COST action.

Spatiotemporal Visualization of Tsunami Waves Using Kml on Google Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, H.; Delavar, M. R.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycoses in nature.

PubMed

Garner, Trenton W J; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin; Cunningham, Andrew A; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C; Bosch, Jaime

2016-12-05

Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycoses in nature

PubMed Central

Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Weldon, Che; Bosch, Jaime

2016-01-01

Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. PMID:28080996

Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

2015-01-01

Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration.

PubMed

Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A; Lukenbach, Maxwell C; Waddington, James M

2016-06-27

Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha(-1) emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.

2016-06-01

Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha-1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration

PubMed Central

Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.

2016-01-01

Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha−1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change. PMID:27346604

Does Implementation of Biomathematical Models Mitigate Fatigue and Fatigue-related Risks in Emergency Medical Services Operations? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

James, Francine O; Waggoner, Lauren B; Weiss, Patricia M; Patterson, P Daniel; Higgins, J Stephen; Lang, Eddy S; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-02-15

Work schedules like those of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel have been associated with increased risk of fatigue-related impairment. Biomathematical modeling is a means of objectively estimating the potential impacts of fatigue on performance, which may be used in the mitigation of fatigue-related safety risks. In the context of EMS operations, our objective was to assess the evidence in the literature regarding the effectiveness of using biomathematical models to help mitigate fatigue and fatigue-related risks. A systematic review of the evidence evaluating the use of biomathematical models to manage fatigue in EMS personnel or similar shift workers was performed. Procedures proposed by the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology were used to summarize and rate the certainty in the evidence. Potential bias attached to retained studies was documented using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias tool for experimental studies. The literature search strategy, which focused on both EMS personnel and non-EMS shift workers, yielded n = 2,777 unique records. One paper, which investigated non-EMS shift workers, met inclusion criteria. As part of a larger effort, managers and dispatchers of a trucking operation were provided with monthly biomathematical model analyses of predicted fatigue in the driver workforce, and educated on how they could reduce predicted fatigue by means of schedule adjustments. The intervention showed a significant reduction in the number and cost of vehicular accidents during the period in which biomathematical modeling was used. The overall GRADE assessment of evidence quality was very low due to risk of bias, indirectness, imprecision, and publication bias. This systematic review identified no studies that investigated the impact of biomathematical models in EMS operations. Findings from one study of non-EMS shift workers were favorable toward use of biomathematical models as a fatigue mitigation scheduling aid, albeit with very low quality of evidence pertaining to EMS operations. We propose three focus areas of research priorities that, if addressed, could help better elucidate the utility and impact of biomathematical models as a fatigue-mitigation tool in the EMS environment.

End-User Applications of Real-Time Earthquake Information in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cua, G. B.; Gasparini, P.; Giardini, D.; Zschau, J.; Filangieri, A. R.; Reakt Wp7 Team

2011-12-01

The primary objective of European FP7 project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction) is to improve the efficiency of real-time earthquake risk mitigation methods and their capability of protecting structures, infrastructures, and populations. REAKT aims to address the issues of real-time earthquake hazard and response from end-to-end, with efforts directed along the full spectrum of methodology development in earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, and real-time vulnerability systems, through optimal decision-making, and engagement and cooperation of scientists and end users for the establishment of best practices for use of real-time information. Twelve strategic test cases/end users throughout Europe have been selected. This diverse group of applications/end users includes civil protection authorities, railway systems, hospitals, schools, industrial complexes, nuclear plants, lifeline systems, national seismic networks, and critical structures. The scale of target applications covers a wide range, from two school complexes in Naples, to individual critical structures, such as the Rion Antirion bridge in Patras, and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridge in Istanbul, to large complexes, such as the SINES industrial complex in Portugal and the Thessaloniki port area, to distributed lifeline and transportation networks and nuclear plants. Some end-users are interested in in-depth feasibility studies for use of real-time information and development of rapid response plans, while others intend to install real-time instrumentation and develop customized automated control systems. From the onset, REAKT scientists and end-users will work together on concept development and initial implementation efforts using the data products and decision-making methodologies developed with the goal of improving end-user risk mitigation. The aim of this scientific/end-user partnership is to ensure that scientific efforts are applicable to operational, real-world problems.

If You See Something, Say Something…More

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.; Peacock, K.

2015-12-01

Scientists have a collective ethical obligation to communicate the implications of their science and to communicate it as accurately and fully as possible. Nowhere is that obligation more profound than in areas of research, like climate change, where the stakes are so great, and where societal decision-making demands the most accurate assessments of risk. If scientists remain on the sidelines, they insure that others with an axe to grind will fill the void, game the process of risk assessment, and insure sub-optimal policy decision-making. But simple participation is not adequate either. Scientists, when they communicate climate change risk, must resist the temptation to downplay high-risk and high-cost scenarios in an effort simply to avoid criticism by contrarians. Otherwise, the net affect is the same, with bad faith actors achieving their goal of minimizing the emphasis placed on mitigation efforts in the policymaking process. We will discuss some examples including the critically important case of ice sheet collapse and sea level rise.

Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

PubMed

Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

2014-11-01

To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict

PubMed Central

Miller, Jennifer R. B.; Jhala, Yadvendradev V.; Schmitz, Oswald J.

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people’s perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners’ perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict. PMID:27617831

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

PubMed

Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

The Bellagio Report: Cardiovascular risks of spaceflight: implications for the future of space travel.

PubMed

Sides, Marian B; Vernikos, Joan; Convertino, Victor A; Stepanek, Jan; Tripp, Lloyd D; Draeger, Jorg; Hargens, Alan R; Kourtidou-Papadeli, Chrysoula; Pavy-LeTraon, Anne; Russomano, Thais; Wong, Julielynn Y; Buccello, Regina R; Lee, Peter H; Nangalia, Vishal; Saary, M Joan

2005-09-01

Long-duration space missions, as well as emerging civilian tourist space travel activities, prompted review and assessment of data available to date focusing on cardiovascular risk and available risk mitigation strategies. The goal was the creation of tools for risk priority assessments taking into account the probability of the occurrence of an adverse cardiovascular event and available and published literature from spaceflight data as well as available risk mitigation strategies. An international group of scientists convened in Bellagio, Italy, in 2004 under the auspices of the Aerospace Medical Association to review available literature for cardiac risks identified in the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (versions 2000, 2004). This effort led to the creation of a priority assessment framework to allow for an objective assessment of the hazard, probability of its occurrence, mission impact, and available risk mitigation measures. Spaceflight data are presented regarding evidence/ no evidence of cardiac dysrhythmias, cardiovascular disease, and cardiac function as well as orthostatic intolerance, exercise capacity, and peripheral resistance in presyncopal astronauts compared to non-presyncopal astronauts. Assessment of the priority of different countermeasures was achieved with a tabular framework with focus on probability of occurrence, mission impact, compliance, practicality, and effectiveness of countermeasures. Special operational settings and circumstances related to sensitive portions of any mission and the impact of environmental influences on mission effectiveness are addressed. The need for development of diagnostic tools, techniques, and countermeasure devices, food preparation, preservation technologies and medication, as well as an infrastructure to support these operations are stressed. Selected countermeasure options, including artificial gravity and pharmacological countermeasures need to be systematically evaluated and validated in flight, especially after long-duration exposures. Data need to be collected regarding the emerging field of suborbital and orbital civilian space travel, to allow for sound risk assessment.

Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

2015-01-01

NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then assessed the likelihood and consequences of each risk against each DRM, using three levels of likelihood (Low: less than or equal to 0.1%; Medium: 0.1%–1.0%; High: greater than or equal to 1.0%) and four levels of consequence ranging from Very Low (temporary or insignificant) to High (death, loss of mission, or significant reduction to length or quality of life). Quantitative evidence from clinical, operational, and research sources were used whenever available. Qualitative evidence was used when quantitative evidence was unavailable. Expert opinion was used whenever insufficient evidence was available. Results: A set of 30 risks emerged that will require further mitigation efforts before being accepted by the Agency. The likelihood by consequence risk assessment process provided a means of prioritizing among the risks identified. For each of the high priority risks, a plan was developed to perform research, technology, or standards development thought necessary to provide suitable reduction of likelihood or consequence to allow agency acceptance. Conclusion: The HSRB process has successfully identified a complete set of risks to human space travelers on planned exploration missions based on the best evidence available today. Risk mitigation plans have been established for the highest priority risks. Each risk will be reassessed annually to track the progress of our risk mitigation efforts.

Malaria risk assessment and preventive recommendations: a new approach for the Canadian military.

PubMed

Schofield, Steve; Tepper, Martin; Tuck, Jeremy J H

2007-12-01

Western militaries deploying to international locations are often confronted with the threat of malaria. For the Canadian military, the consequent response has been prescriptive-any risk of malaria warrants use of personal protective measures and chemoprophylaxis. In reality, however, malaria risk is highly variable and a one-size-fits-all strategy to mitigation may not be appropriate. In line with this, the Canadian military has revised its approach to malaria risk assessment and preventive response. More effort is now spent on predictive modeling and, where risk is deemed to be low, chemoprophylaxis may not be recommended. We describe here an application of the revised methodology to the recent Canadian military deployment to Kandahar province, Afghanistan.

The Influence of Mitigation on Sage-Grouse Habitat Selection within an Energy Development Field

PubMed Central

Fedy, Bradley C.; Kirol, Christopher P.; Sutphin, Andrew L.; Maechtle, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Growing global energy demands ensure the continued growth of energy development. Energy development in wildlife areas can significantly impact wildlife populations. Efforts to mitigate development impacts to wildlife are on-going, but the effectiveness of such efforts is seldom monitored or assessed. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are sensitive to energy development and likely serve as an effective umbrella species for other sagebrush-steppe obligate wildlife. We assessed the response of birds within an energy development area before and after the implementation of mitigation action. Additionally, we quantified changes in habitat distribution and abundance in pre- and post-mitigation landscapes. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development at large spatial scales is well documented. We limited our research to directly within an energy development field in order to assess the influence of mitigation in close proximity to energy infrastructure. We used nest-location data (n = 488) within an energy development field to develop habitat selection models using logistic regression on data from 4 years of research prior to mitigation and for 4 years following the implementation of extensive mitigation efforts (e.g., decreased activity, buried powerlines). The post-mitigation habitat selection models indicated less avoidance of wells (well density β = 0.18 ± 0.08) than the pre-mitigation models (well density β = -0.09 ± 0.11). However, birds still avoided areas of high well density and nests were not found in areas with greater than 4 wells per km2 and the majority of nests (63%) were located in areas with ≤ 1 well per km2. Several other model coefficients differed between the two time periods and indicated stronger selection for sagebrush (pre-mitigation β = 0.30 ± 0.09; post-mitigation β = 0.82 ± 0.08) and less avoidance of rugged terrain (pre-mitigation β = -0.35 ± 0.12; post-mitigation β = -0.05 ± 0.09). Mitigation efforts implemented may be responsible for the measurable improvement in sage-grouse nesting habitats within the development area. However, we cannot reject alternative hypotheses concerning the influence of population density and intraspecific competition. Additionally, we were unable to assess the actual fitness consequences of mitigation or the source-sink dynamics of the habitats. We compared the pre-mitigation and post-mitigation models predicted as maps with habitats ranked from low to high relative probability of use (equal-area bins: 1 – 5). We found more improvement in habitat rank between the two time periods around mitigated wells compared to non-mitigated wells. Informed mitigation within energy development fields could help improve habitats within the field. We recommend that any mitigation effort include well-informed plans to monitor the effectiveness of the implemented mitigation actions that assess both habitat use and relevant fitness parameters. PMID:25835296

Metal Whiskers: A Discussion of Risks and Mitigation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-30

efforts to investigate – Chromate conversion finishes DO NOT appear to stop whisker formation [4] S. Arnold, "Repressing the Growth of Tin Whiskers...November 30, 2010 Metal Whiskers 10 Examples of Metal Whiskers Zinc-Plated Steel Bus Rail with Yellow Chromate Conversion Finish Zinc whiskers grew...Metal Whiskers 11 Examples of Metal Whiskers Tin-Plated D-Sub Connector Shell Connector Advertised as “RoHS Compliant” November 30, 2010 Metal

Low-Speed Stability and Control Test of a "Double-Bubble" Transport Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vicroy, Dan D.

2017-01-01

A test in the Langley 12-Foot Low-Speed Tunnel was conducted as a risk mitigation effort to quickly obtain some low-speed stability and control data on a "double-bubble" or D8 transport configuration. The test also tested some configuration design trades. A 5-percent scale model was tested with stabilizer, elevator, rudder and aileron control deflections. This report summarizes the test results.

Combating the Insider Cyber Threat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Moore, Andrew P.; Cappelli, Dawn M.

This article represents a collaboration between PNNL, CERT/CMU, and AFRL that describes needs and related efforts by these institutions to develop technologies and approaches to counter cyber threats by insiders to informatin systems. The main focus of this article is on the need for effective training on insider threat to raise staff awareness and encourage organizations to adopt a more effective approach to identifying potential risks and take proactive steps to mitigate them.

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

A Framework for Widespread Replication of a Highly Spatially Resolved Childhood Lead Exposure Risk Model

PubMed Central

Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M. Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-01-01

Background Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels < 10 μg/dL highlights the need for improved exposure prevention interventions. Objectives Geographic information system–based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. Methods We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. Results The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. Conclusions This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities. PMID:19079729

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

2014-04-01

Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Neglected health literacy undermining fluorosis control efforts: A pilot study among schoolchildren in an endemic village of rural Rajasthan, India.

PubMed

Rustagi, Neeti; Rathore, Ajey Singh; Meena, Jitendra Kumar; Chugh, Ankita; Pal, Ranabir

2017-01-01

Ingestion of excess fluoride can cause fluorosis which adversely affects teeth and bones. Fluorosis is a major public health problem in the state of Rajasthan with all its 32 districts having variable fluoride contamination, and many initiatives are currently implemented in this region to mitigate the fluorosis burden. The objective of this study was to assess fluorosis, its risk factors, and the awareness among school students and teachers in endemic villages of Jodhpur district, Rajasthan. A representative sample of 300 students of age 12-15 years were enrolled for cross-sectional study in selected villages. Data were collected regarding awareness, behavioral and preventive practices about fluorosis and clinical assessment and fluoride estimation in water and urine samples was done. Dental fluorosis through Dean's index was observed in 24.5% of students. The awareness and practices for fluorosis prevention and its risk factors were poor among both students and teachers. Intake of piped water supply was reported by majority of students (95.8%). High fluoride concentration was found in 35 (81.3%) out of 43 urine samples. Improvement in drinking water supply in the endemic village of Rajasthan has decreased the burden of fluorosis, but low level of awareness and prevailing dietary and behavioral practices still pose them at risk of high fluoride intake. This signifies the need to address nonconventional sources of fluoride intake (diet and toothpaste) and early screening of disease by involving teachers and family physicians in fluoride mitigation efforts.

Landslide databases to compare regional repair and mitigation strategies of transportation infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlers, Annika; Damm, Bodo

2017-04-01

Regional data of the Central German Uplands are extracted from the German landslide database in order to understand the complex interactions between landslide risks and public risk awareness considering transportation infrastructure. Most information within the database is gathered by means of archive studies from inventories of emergency agencies, state, press and web archives, company and department records as well as scientific and (geo)technical literature. The information includes land use practices, repair and mitigation measures with resultant costs of the German road network as well as railroad and waterway networks. It therefore contains valuable information of historical and current landslide impacts, elements at risk and provides an overview of spatiotemporal changes in social exposure and vulnerability to landslide hazards over the last 120 years. On a regional scale the recorded infrastructure damages, and consequential repair or mitigation measures were categorized and classified, according to relevant landslide types, processes and types of infrastructure. In a further step, the data of recent landslides are compared with historical and modern repair and mitigation measures and are correlated with socioeconomic concepts. As a result, it is possible to identify some complex interactions between landslide hazard, risk perception, and damage impact, including time lags and intensity thresholds. The data reveal distinct concepts of repairing respectively mitigating landslides on different types of transportation infrastructure, which are not exclusively linked to higher construction efforts (e.g. embankments on railroads and channels), but changing levels of economic losses and risk perception as well. In addition, a shift from low cost prevention measures such as the removal of loose rock and vegetation, rock blasting, and catch barriers towards expensive mitigation measures such as catch fences, soil anchoring and rock nailing over time can be noticed. This temporal shift is associated with a higher public hazard awareness towards landslides which is at some sites linked to an apparent increase in landslide frequency and magnitude. Damm B., Klose M. (2015) The landslide database for Germany: Closing the gap at national level. Geomorphology. 249: 82-93. Klose, M., Damm, B., Terhorst, B. (2015): Landslide cost modeling for transportation infrastructures: a methodological approach. Landslides 12: 321-334. Klose M., Maurischat P., Damm B. (2016) Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective. Landslides. 13: 183-199.

Climate change: Evolving technologies, U.S. business, and the world economy in the 21. century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harter, J.J.

1996-12-31

The International Climate Change Partnership presents this report as one of its efforts to present current information on climate change to the public. One often hears about the expenses entailed in protecting the environment. Unfortunately, one hears less about the economic benefits that may be associated with prudent actions to counter environmental threats. This conference is particularly useful because it focuses attention on profitable business opportunities in the United States and elsewhere that arise from practical efforts to mitigate the risks of climate change. The report contains a brief synopsis of each speaker`s address on climate change.

A code inspection process for security reviews

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garzoglio, Gabriele; /Fermilab

2009-05-01

In recent years, it has become more and more evident that software threat communities are taking an increasing interest in Grid infrastructures. To mitigate the security risk associated with the increased numbers of attacks, the Grid software development community needs to scale up effort to reduce software vulnerabilities. This can be achieved by introducing security review processes as a standard project management practice. The Grid Facilities Department of the Fermilab Computing Division has developed a code inspection process, tailored to reviewing security properties of software. The goal of the process is to identify technical risks associated with an application andmore » their impact. This is achieved by focusing on the business needs of the application (what it does and protects), on understanding threats and exploit communities (what an exploiter gains), and on uncovering potential vulnerabilities (what defects can be exploited). The desired outcome of the process is an improvement of the quality of the software artifact and an enhanced understanding of possible mitigation strategies for residual risks. This paper describes the inspection process and lessons learned on applying it to Grid middleware.« less

A code inspection process for security reviews

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzoglio, Gabriele

2010-04-01

In recent years, it has become more and more evident that software threat communities are taking an increasing interest in Grid infrastructures. To mitigate the security risk associated with the increased numbers of attacks, the Grid software development community needs to scale up effort to reduce software vulnerabilities. This can be achieved by introducing security review processes as a standard project management practice. The Grid Facilities Department of the Fermilab Computing Division has developed a code inspection process, tailored to reviewing security properties of software. The goal of the process is to identify technical risks associated with an application and their impact. This is achieved by focusing on the business needs of the application (what it does and protects), on understanding threats and exploit communities (what an exploiter gains), and on uncovering potential vulnerabilities (what defects can be exploited). The desired outcome of the process is an improvement of the quality of the software artifact and an enhanced understanding of possible mitigation strategies for residual risks. This paper describes the inspection process and lessons learned on applying it to Grid middleware.

Advances in Atmospheric Radiation Measurements and Modeling Needed to Improve Air Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Atwell, William; Beck, Peter; Benton, Eric; Copeland, Kyle; Dyer, Clive; Gersey, Brad; Getley, Ian; Hands, Alex; Holland, Michael; Hong, Sunhak; Hwang, Junga; Jones, Bryn; Malone, Kathleen; Meier, Matthias M.; Mertens, Chris; Phillips, Tony; Ryden, Keith; Schwadron, Nathan; Wender, Stephen A.; Wilkins, Richard; Xapsos, Michael A.

2015-04-01

Air safety is tied to the phenomenon of ionizing radiation from space weather, primarily from galactic cosmic rays but also from solar energetic particles. A global framework for addressing radiation issues in this environment has been constructed, but more must be done at international and national levels. Health consequences from atmospheric radiation exposure are likely to exist. In addition, severe solar radiation events may cause economic consequences in the international aviation community due to exposure limits being reached by some crew members. Impacts from a radiation environment upon avionics from high-energy particles and low-energy, thermalized neutrons are now recognized as an area of active interest. A broad community recognizes that there are a number of mitigation paths that can be taken relative to the human tissue and avionics exposure risks. These include developing active monitoring and measurement programs as well as improving scientific modeling capabilities that can eventually be turned into operations. A number of roadblocks to risk mitigation still exist, such as effective pilot training programs as well as monitoring, measuring, and regulatory measures. An active international effort toward observing the weather of atmospheric radiation must occur to make progress in mitigating radiation exposure risks. Stakeholders in this process include standard-making bodies, scientific organizations, regulatory organizations, air traffic management systems, aircraft owners and operators, pilots and crew, and even the public.

A Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulator for Software Development for a Mars Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slagowski, Stefan E.; Vican, Justin E.; Kenney, P. Sean

2007-01-01

Draper Laboratory recently developed a Hardware-In-The-Loop Simulator (HILSIM) to provide a simulation of the Aerial Regional-scale Environmental Survey (ARES) airplane executing a mission in the Martian environment. The HILSIM was used to support risk mitigation activities under the Planetary Airplane Risk Reduction (PARR) program. PARR supported NASA Langley Research Center's (LaRC) ARES proposal efforts for the Mars Scout 2011 opportunity. The HILSIM software was a successful integration of two simulation frameworks, Draper's CSIM and NASA LaRC's Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++).

Success in transmitting hazard science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, J. G.; Garside, T.

2010-12-01

Money motivates mitigation. An example of success in communicating scientific information about hazards, coupled with information about available money, is the follow-up action by local governments to actually mitigate. The Nevada Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee helps local governments prepare competitive proposals for federal funds to reduce risks from natural hazards. Composed of volunteers with expertise in emergency management, building standards, and earthquake, flood, and wildfire hazards, the committee advises the Nevada Division of Emergency Management on (1) the content of the State’s hazard mitigation plan and (2) projects that have been proposed by local governments and state agencies for funding from various post- and pre-disaster hazard mitigation programs of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Local governments must have FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans in place before they can receive this funding. The committee has been meeting quarterly with elected and appointed county officials, at their offices, to encourage them to update their mitigation plans and apply for this funding. We have settled on a format that includes the county’s giving the committee an overview of its infrastructure, hazards, and preparedness. The committee explains the process for applying for mitigation grants and presents the latest information that we have about earthquake hazards, including locations of nearby active faults, historical seismicity, geodetic strain, loss-estimation modeling, scenarios, and documents about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. Much of the county-specific information is available on the web. The presentations have been well received, in part because the committee makes the effort to go to their communities, and in part because the committee is helping them attract federal funds for local mitigation of not only earthquake hazards but also floods (including canal breaches) and wildfires, the other major concerns in Nevada. Local citizens appreciate the efforts of the state officials to present the information in a public forum. The Committee’s earthquake presentations to the counties are supplemented by regular updates in the two most populous counties during quarterly meetings of the Nevada Earthquake Safety Council, generally alternating between Las Vegas and Reno. We have only 17 counties in Nevada, so we are making good progress at reaching each within a few years. The Committee is also learning from the county officials about their frustrations in dealing with the state and federal bureaucracies. Success is documented by the mitigation projects that FEMA has funded.

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity Land-Based Layout to Mitigate Flood Risk (Case Study in Tempuran Floodplain, Ponorogo Regency) Novia Lusiana1 Bambang Rahadi2 Tunggul Sutanhaji3 1Environmental and Natural Resources Management Graduate Program University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia 23Laboratory of Environment and Natural Resources Engineering, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia Email : novialusiana@rocketmail.com, jbrahadi@ub.ac.id, tunggulsutanhaji@yahoo.com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, N.

2013-12-01

Abstract Floods haves frequently hit Indonesia and have had greater negative impacts. In Javaboth the area affected by flooding and the amount of damage caused by floods have increased. At least, five factors, affect the flooding in Indonesia, including rainfall, reduced retention capacity of the watershed, erroneous design of river channel development, silting-up of the river, and erroneous regional layout. The level of the disastrous risks can be evaluated based on the extent of the threat and susceptibility of a region. One methode for risk assessment is Geographical Information System (GIS)-based mapping. Objectives of this research are: 1) evaluating current flood risk in susceptible areas, 2) applying supported land-based layout as effort to mitigate floodrisk, and 3) evaluating floodrisk for the period 2031 in the Tempuran floodplain of Ponorogo Regency. Result show that the area categorized as high risk covers 104. 6 ha (1. 2%), moderate risk covers 2512. 9 ha (28. 4%), low risk covers 3140. 8 ha (35. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 3096. 1 (34. 9%). Using Regional Layout Design for the years 2011 - 2031, the high risk area covers 67. 9 ha (0.8%), moderate risk covers 3033 ha (34. 3%), low risk covers 2770. 8 ha (31, 3%), and the lowest risk covers 2982. 6 ha (34%). Based on supported land suitability, the high-risk areais only 2. 9 ha (0.1%), moderate risk covers of 426. 1 ha (4. 8%), low risk covers 4207. 4 ha (47. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 4218 ha (47. 6%). Flood risk can be mitigated by applying supported land-based layout as shown by the reduced high-risk area, and the fact that > 90% of the areas are categorized as low or lowest risk of disaster. Keywords : Carrying Capacity, Land Capacity, Flood Risk

Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, F.I.; Titov, V.V.; Mofjeld, H.O.; Venturato, A.J.; Simmons, R.S.; Hansen, R.; Combellick, Rodney; Eisner, R.K.; Hoirup, D.F.; Yanagi, B.S.; Yong, S.; Darienzo, M.; Priest, G.R.; Crawford, G.L.; Walsh, T.J.

2005-01-01

The Hazard Assessment component of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program has completed 22 modeling efforts covering 113 coastal communities with an estimated population of 1.2 million residents that are at risk. Twenty-three evacuation maps have also been completed. Important improvements in organizational structure have been made with the addition of two State geotechnical agency representatives to Steering Group membership, and progress has been made on other improvements suggested by program reviewers. ?? Springer 2005.

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Updated ’Safeguards’ and Net Assessments

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-03

measures that this nation can take unilaterally within the treaty to protect its nuclear security. To compensate for “disadvantages and risk” they...and strategic forces, and could be augmented with implementation measures . While Safeguards may be part of a future CTBT debate, both supporters and...A second path involves efforts to alter the net assessment through measures intended to mitigate perceived risks of the treaty. This path has been

12 CFR 217.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operational risk exposure to reflect qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The Board-regulated...) Qualifying operational risk mitigants. Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is... institution assigns the company is assigned a PD equal to or less than 10 basis points; (ii) Has an initial...

12 CFR 324.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operational risk exposure to reflect qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The FDIC-supervised...) Qualifying operational risk mitigants. Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is... institution assigns the company is assigned a PD equal to or less than 10 basis points; (ii) Has an initial...

Costs and Risks of Continuous Purges for Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Secunda, M.; De Garcia, K. Montt

2018-01-01

As instruments are built, tested, and launched, they are exposed to environments that have various levels of cleanliness. Often, Scientists and Contamination Control Engineers specify a purge to mitigate the instrument's exposure to a non-clean environment, protect sensitive optics from a specific threat, such as water, or as insurance against things going wrong in a clean environment. The cost of the purge, in effort, dollars and risk, is often understated when the requirements are being established, and the need for purge is not clearly justifiable. This paper will more clearly define some of the costs and risks associated with the continuous purging of instruments during the course of building, testing and launching instruments.

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development.

PubMed

Kirol, Christopher P; Sutphin, Andrew L; Bond, Laura; Fuller, Mark R; Maechtle, Thomas L

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species-including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5 km 2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success.

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development

PubMed Central

Kirol, Christopher P.; Sutphin, Andrew L.; Bond, Laura; Fuller, Mark R.; Maechtle, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species—including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5 km2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success. PMID:26366042

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

Using Integrated Earth and Social Science Data for Disaster Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Yetman, G.

2016-12-01

Society faces many different risks from both natural and technological hazards. In some cases, disaster risk managers focus on only a few risks, e.g., in regions where a single hazard such as earthquakes dominate. More often, however, disaster risk managers deal with multiple hazards that pose diverse threats to life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. From the viewpoint of scientists, hazards are often studied based on traditional disciplines such as seismology, hydrology, climatology, and epidemiology. But from the viewpoint of disaster risk managers, data are needed on all hazards in a specific region and on the exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, and economic resources and activity. Such managers also need to understand how hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities may interact, and human and environmental systems respond, to hazard events, as in the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed from the Sendai earthquake and tsunami. In this regard, geospatial tools that enable visualization and analysis of both Earth and social science data can support the use case of disaster risk managers who need to quickly assess where specific hazard events occur relative to population and critical infrastructure. Such information can help them assess the potential severity of actual or predicted hazard events, identify population centers or key infrastructure at risk, and visualize hazard dynamics, e.g., earthquakes and their aftershocks or the paths of severe storms. This can then inform efforts to mitigate risks across multiple hazards, including reducing exposure and vulnerability, strengthening system resiliency, improving disaster response mechanisms, and targeting mitigation resources to the highest or most critical risks. We report here on initial efforts to develop hazard mapping tools that draw on open web services and support simple spatial queries about population exposure. The NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Hazards Mapper, a web-based mapping tool, enables users to estimate population living in areas subject to flood or tornado warnings, near recent earthquakes, or around critical infrastructure. The HazPop mobile app, implemented for iOS devices, utilizes location services to support disaster risk managers working in field conditions.

Consequence-driven cyber-informed engineering (CCE)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freeman, Sarah G.; St Michel, Curtis; Smith, Robert

The Idaho National Lab (INL) is leading a high-impact, national security-level initiative to reprioritize the way the nation looks at high-consequence risk within the industrial control systems (ICS) environment of the country’s most critical infrastructure and other national assets. The Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) effort provides both private and public organizations with the steps required to examine their own environments for high-impact events/risks; identify implementation of key devices and components that facilitate that risk; illuminate specific, plausible cyber attack paths to manipulate these devices; and develop concrete mitigations, protections, and tripwires to address the high-consequence risk. The ultimate goal ofmore » the CCE effort is to help organizations take the steps necessary to thwart cyber attacks from even top-tier, highly resourced adversaries that would result in a catastrophic physical effect. CCE participants are encouraged to work collaboratively with each other and with key U.S. Government (USG) contributors to establish a coalition, maximizing the positive effect of lessons-learned and further contributing to the protection of critical infrastructure and other national assets.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

The oncology pharmacy in cancer care delivery in a resource-constrained setting in western Kenya.

PubMed

Strother, R Matthew; Rao, Kamakshi V; Gregory, Kelly M; Jakait, Beatrice; Busakhala, Naftali; Schellhase, Ellen; Pastakia, Sonak; Krzyzanowska, Monika; Loehrer, Patrick J

2012-12-01

The movement to deliver cancer care in resource-limited settings is gaining momentum, with particular emphasis on the creation of cost-effective, rational algorithms utilizing affordable chemotherapeutics to treat curable disease. The delivery of cancer care in resource-replete settings is a concerted effort by a team of multidisciplinary care providers. The oncology pharmacy, which is now considered integral to cancer care in resourced medical practice, developed over the last several decades in an effort to limit healthcare provider exposure to workplace hazards and to limit risk to patients. In developing cancer care services in resource-constrained settings, creation of oncology pharmacies can help to both mitigate the risks to practitioners and patients, and also limit the costs of cancer care and the environmental impact of chemotherapeutics. This article describes the experience and lessons learned in establishing a chemotherapy pharmacy in western Kenya.

Migrant Workers in Kazakhstan: Gender Differences in HIV Knowledge and Sexual Risk Behaviors.

PubMed

Zhussupov, Baurzhan; McNutt, Louise-Anne; Gilbert, Louisa; Terlikbayeva, Assel; El-Bassel, Nabila

2015-07-01

This study compares sexual risk behaviors among male and female migrant market vendors in Almaty, Kazakhstan. From the Barakholka Market, 209 male and 213 female market vendors were randomly recruited. Self-reported data were collected through standardized face-to-face interviews. Dry blood spot was used as specimen for syphilis testing. Propensity score stratification was used to estimate adjusted prevalence or rate ratios by gender. Compared to male migrant workers, females had lower HIV knowledge and were less likely to have multiple sexual partners. There was no evidence of a gender difference for prevalence of syphilis, condom use with unsteady partners, and safe sex communication between couples. Associations between mobility patterns and engagement in multiple sexual partnerships were stronger among women than men. Efforts should be made to mitigate the gender differential in HIV knowledge among migrants, especially women. Such efforts need to be implemented in both home and host countries.

Risk Mitigation of Emerging Zoonoses: Hendra Virus and Non-Vaccinating Horse Owners.

PubMed

Manyweathers, J; Field, H; Jordan, D; Longnecker, N; Agho, K; Smith, C; Taylor, M

2017-12-01

Hendra virus was identified in horses and humans in 1994, in Queensland, Australia. Flying foxes are the natural host. Horses are thought to acquire infection by direct or indirect contact with infected flying fox urine. Humans are infected from close contact with infected horses. To reduce risk of infection in horses and humans, Australian horse owners are encouraged to vaccinate horses against the virus and adopt property risk mitigation practices that focus on reducing flying fox horse contact and contamination of horses' environment with flying fox bodily fluids. This study investigates uptake of four Hendra virus risk mitigation practices in a sample of non- and partially vaccinating horse owners living close to previous Hendra virus cases. Protection motivation theory was used to develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perception and coping factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices. An online survey was administered via Facebook pages of veterinary clinics close to previous Hendra virus cases. Factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices were investigated using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Belief that a risk mitigation practice would be effective in reducing Hendra virus risk was significantly associated with the uptake of that practice. Issues around the practicality of implementing risk mitigation practices were found to be the greatest barrier to uptake. Factors that relate to risk immediacy, such as nearby infection, were identified as more likely to trigger uptake of risk mitigation practices. The role of veterinarians in supporting Hendra risk mitigation was identified as more influential than that of respected others or friends. Findings from this study are being used to assist stakeholders in Australia responsible for promotion of risk mitigation practice in identifying additional pathways and reliable influencing factors that could be utilized for engaging and communicating with horse owners to promote Hendra virus risk mitigation behaviour. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

Hungry Horse Dam Fisheries Mitigation, 1992-1993 Progress Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DosSantos, Joe; Vashro, Jim; Lockard, Larry

1994-06-01

In February of 1900, over forty agency representatives and interested citizens began development of the 1991 Mitigation Plan. This effort culminated in the 1993 Implementation Plan for mitigation of fish losses attributable to the construction and operation of Hungry Horse Dam. The primary purpose of this biennial report is to inform the public of the status of ongoing mitigation activities resulting from those planning efforts. A habitat improvement project is underway to benefit bull trout in Big Creek in the North Fork drainage of the Flathead River and work is planned in Hay Creek, another North Fork tributary. Bull troutmore » redd counts have been expanded and experimental programs involving genetic evaluation, outmigrant monitoring, and hatchery studies have been initiated, Cutthroat mitigation efforts have focused on habitat improvements in Elliott Creek and Taylor`s Outflow and improvements have been followed by imprint plants of hatchery fish and/or eyed eggs in those streams. Rogers Lake west of Kalispell and Lion Lake, near Hungry Horse, were chemically rehabilitated. Cool and warm water fish habitat has been improved in Halfmoon Lake and Echo Lake. Public education and public interest is important to the future success of mitigation activities. As part of the mitigation team`s public awareness responsibility we have worked with numerous volunteer groups, public agencies, and private landowners to stimulate interest and awareness of mitigation activities and the aquatic ecosystem. The purpose of this biennial report is to foster public awareness of, and support for, mitigation activities as we move forward in implementing the Hungry Horse Dam Fisheries Mitigation Implementation Plan.« less

Hellsgate Big Game Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Site Specific Management Plan for the Hellsgate Project.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berger, Matthew T.; Judd, Steven L.

This report contains a detailed site-specific management plan for the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project. The report provides background information about the mitigation process, the review process, mitigation acquisitions, Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) and mitigation crediting, current habitat conditions, desired future habitat conditions, restoration/enhancements efforts and maps.

Recommended Screening Practices for Launch Collision Aviodance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaver, Brian A.; Hametz, Mark E.; Ollivierre, Jarmaine C.; Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

2015-01-01

The objective of this document is to assess the value of launch collision avoidance (COLA) practices and provide recommendations regarding its implementation for NASA robotic missions. The scope of this effort is limited to launch COLA screens against catalog objects that are either spacecraft or debris. No modifications to manned safety COLA practices are considered in this effort. An assessment of the value of launch COLA can be broken down into two fundamental questions: 1) Does collision during launch represent a significant risk to either the payload being launched or the space environment? 2) Can launch collision mitigation be performed in a manner that provides meaningful risk reduction at an acceptable level of operational impact? While it has been possible to piece together partial answers to these questions for some time, the first attempt to comprehensively address them is documented in reference (a), Launch COLA Operations: an Examination of Data Products, Procedures, and Thresholds, Revision A. This report is the product of an extensive study that addressed fundamental technical questions surrounding launch collision avoidance analysis and practice. The results provided in reference (a) will be cited throughout this document as these two questions are addressed. The premise of this assessment is that in order to conclude that launch COLA is a value-added activity, the answer to both of these questions must be affirmative. A "no" answer to either of these questions points toward the conclusion that launch COLA provides little or no risk mitigation benefit. The remainder of this assessment will focus on addressing these two questions.

Neglected health literacy undermining fluorosis control efforts: A pilot study among schoolchildren in an endemic village of rural Rajasthan, India

PubMed Central

Rustagi, Neeti; Rathore, Ajey Singh; Meena, Jitendra Kumar; Chugh, Ankita; Pal, Ranabir

2017-01-01

Background: Ingestion of excess fluoride can cause fluorosis which adversely affects teeth and bones. Fluorosis is a major public health problem in the state of Rajasthan with all its 32 districts having variable fluoride contamination, and many initiatives are currently implemented in this region to mitigate the fluorosis burden. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess fluorosis, its risk factors, and the awareness among school students and teachers in endemic villages of Jodhpur district, Rajasthan. Materials and Methods: A representative sample of 300 students of age 12–15 years were enrolled for cross-sectional study in selected villages. Data were collected regarding awareness, behavioral and preventive practices about fluorosis and clinical assessment and fluoride estimation in water and urine samples was done. Results: Dental fluorosis through Dean's index was observed in 24.5% of students. The awareness and practices for fluorosis prevention and its risk factors were poor among both students and teachers. Intake of piped water supply was reported by majority of students (95.8%). High fluoride concentration was found in 35 (81.3%) out of 43 urine samples. Conclusion: Improvement in drinking water supply in the endemic village of Rajasthan has decreased the burden of fluorosis, but low level of awareness and prevailing dietary and behavioral practices still pose them at risk of high fluoride intake. This signifies the need to address nonconventional sources of fluoride intake (diet and toothpaste) and early screening of disease by involving teachers and family physicians in fluoride mitigation efforts. PMID:29417003

Managing the Perception of Advanced Technology Risks in Mission Proposals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bellisario, Sebastian Nickolai

2012-01-01

Through my work in the project proposal office I became interested in how technology advancement efforts affect competitive mission proposals. Technology development allows for new instruments and functionality. However, including technology advancement in a mission proposal often increases perceived risk. Risk mitigation has a major impact on the overall evaluation of the proposal and whether the mission is selected. In order to evaluate the different approaches proposals took I compared the proposals claims of heritage and technology advancement to the sponsor feedback provided in the NASA debriefs. I examined a set of Discovery 2010 Mission proposals to draw patterns in how they were evaluated and come up with a set of recommendations for future mission proposals in how they should approach technology advancement to reduce the perceived risk.

A coupled physical and economic model of the response of coastal real estate to climate risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, Dylan E.; Keeler, Andrew

2013-06-01

Barring an unprecedented large-scale effort to raise island elevation, barrier-island communities common along the US East Coast are likely to eventually face inundation of the existing built environment on a timescale that depends on uncertain climatic forcing. Between the present and when a combination of sea-level rise and erosion renders these areas uninhabitable, communities must choose levels of defensive expenditures to reduce risks and individual residents must assess whether and when risk levels are unacceptably high to justify investment in housing. We model the dynamics of coastal adaptation as the interplay of underlying climatic risks, collective actions to mitigate those risks, and individual risk assessments based on beliefs in model predictions and processing of past climate events. Efforts linking physical and behavioural models to explore shoreline dynamics have not yet brought together this set of essential factors. We couple a barrier-island model with an agent-based model of real-estate markets to show that, relative to people with low belief in model predictions about climate change, informed property owners invest heavily in defensive expenditures in the near term and then abandon coastal real estate at some critical risk threshold that presages a period of significant price volatility.

REIMR: A Process for Utilizing Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons-Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballard, Richard O.; Brown, Kendall K.

2005-01-01

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted a t the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). The results of this study was the identification of the "Fundamental Root Causes" that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future engine development efforts. This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided.

Animal contact as a source of human non-typhoidal salmonellosis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Non-typhoidal Salmonella represents an important human and animal pathogen world-wide. Most human salmonellosis cases are foodborne, but each year infections are also acquired through direct or indirect animal contact in homes, veterinary clinics, zoological gardens, farm environments or other public, professional or private settings. Clinically affected animals may exhibit a higher prevalence of shedding than apparently healthy animals, but both can shed Salmonella over long periods of time. In addition, environmental contamination and indirect transmission through contaminated food and water may complicate control efforts. The public health risk varies by animal species, age group, husbandry practice and health status, and certain human subpopulations are at a heightened risk of infection due to biological or behavioral risk factors. Some serotypes such as Salmonella Dublin are adapted to individual host species, while others, for instance Salmonella Typhimurium, readily infect a broad range of host species, but the potential implications for human health are currently unclear. Basic hygiene practices and the implementation of scientifically based management strategies can efficiently mitigate the risks associated with animal contacts. However, the general public is frequently unaware of the specific disease risks involved, and high-risk behaviors are common. Here we describe the epidemiology and serotype distribution of Salmonella in a variety of host species. In addition, we review our current understanding of the public health risks associated with different types of contacts between humans and animals in public, professional or private settings, and, where appropriate, discuss potential risk mitigation strategies. PMID:21324103

Mergers in health care: avoiding divorce IDS style.

PubMed

Drazen, E; Kueber, M

1998-08-01

The recent flurry of merger activity in the healthcare industry has given rise to a significant number of integration efforts. Unfortunately, some of these "marriages" will end in "divorce." Reasons for failure can be found in four critical dimensions of integration: structural, operational, clinical, and informational. Each dimension has its associated pitfalls, and every merger confronts clearly identifiable risks. By taking steps to mitigate such risks, merging organizations can improve the chances the merger will succeed. If the merger does fail, measures taken prior to the merger, such as including an escape clause in the merger contract, can help avoid problems in dividing operational assets, physicians practices, and information assets.

Improved representation of investment decisions in assessments of CO2 mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Flannery, Brian P.; Hultman, Nathan E.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Victor, David G.

2015-05-01

Assessments of emissions mitigation patterns have largely ignored the huge variation in real-world factors--in particular, institutions--that affect where, how and at what costs firms deploy capital. We investigate one such factor--how national institutions affect investment risks and thus the cost of financing. We use an integrated assessment model (IAM; ref. ) to represent the variation in investment risks across technologies and regions in the electricity generation sector--a pivotally important sector in most assessments of climate change mitigation--and compute the impact on the magnitude and distribution of mitigation costs. This modified representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, achieving an emissions mitigation goal is more expensive than it would be in a world with uniform investment risks. Second, industrialized countries mitigate more, and developing countries mitigate less. Here, we introduce a new front in the research on how real-world factors influence climate mitigation. We also suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element of cost-effective climate mitigation strategies.

ARAC--The Montreal Jewish General Hospital Alzheimer Risk Assessment Clinic.

PubMed

Schipper, Hyman M; Liberman, Adrienne; Kelner, Nora; Babins, Lennie; Fried, Lynda; Bilbul, Melanie; Goodman, Rachel

2011-07-01

In parallel with robust efforts world-wide to develop effective neuroprotection for established disease, resources are being mobilized to delineate risk factors and implement preventive measures in a concerted effort to forestall the anticipated Alzheimer disease (AD) epidemic. A review of heritable and 'acquired' dementia risk factors, many operating at midlife, is presented in a companion paper. In 2009, an Alzheimer Risk Assessment Clinic (ARAC) was established at the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal) to address the concerns increasingly being voiced by active middle-aged individuals at risk for AD. A positive family history of AD and/or perceived changes in personal cognitive function (predominantly short-term memory) are main reasons for referral. The primary objectives of ARAC are to (i) ascertain, inform and mitigate the risks of developing AD in cognitively-healthy persons aged 40-65 based on best available medical and epidemiological evidence, (ii) conduct scientific research on midlife dementia risk and prevention in this population and (iii) provide instruction in dementia risk assessment and management to health professionals, clinical/research fellows, medical residents and students. ARAC infrastructure, evaluation protocol, risk profile classification scheme, interventions, knowledge dissemination program, case vignettes, and seminal research projects are described. It is hoped that ARAC and similar initiatives will help prevent or delay dementia by innovating effective interventions based on increasingly nuanced estimation of modifiable AD risk in presymptomatic persons.

A Stakeholder Survey on Live Bird Market Closures Policy for Controlling Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thi Thanh Thuy; Fearnley, Lyle; Dinh, Xuan Tung; Tran, Thi Tram Anh; Tran, Trong Tung; Nguyen, Van Trong; Tago, Damian; Padungtod, Pawin; Newman, Scott H.; Tripodi, Astrid

2017-01-01

Extensive research in Vietnam and elsewhere has shown that live bird markets (LBMs) play a significant role in the ecology and zoonotic transmission of avian influenzas (AIs) including H5N1 and H7N9. Vietnam has a large number of LBMs reflecting the consumer preferences for live poultry. Under pressure to mitigate risks for H7N9 and other zoonotic AIs, Vietnam is considering, among other mitigation measures, temporary closures of LBMs as a policy to reduce risk of AI outbreaks. However, the efficacy of market closure is debated, particularly because little is known about how poultry traders may react, and whether trading may emerge outside formal marketplaces. Combining efforts of anthropologists, economists, sociologists, and veterinarians can be useful to elucidate the drivers behind poultry traders’ reactions and better understanding the barriers to implementing risk mitigation measures. In this paper, we present results from a stakeholder survey of LBM stakeholders in Vietnam. Our qualitative data show that trading outside formal markets is very likely to occur in the event of a temporary LBM market closure. Our data show that the poultry value chain in Vietnam remains highly flexible, with traders willing and able to trade poultry in many possible locations. Our results indicate that simplification of the poultry value chain along with strict enforcement, engagement of stakeholders, and adequate communication would be a necessary prerequisite before market closure could be an effective policy. PMID:28879203

A Stakeholder Survey on Live Bird Market Closures Policy for Controlling Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thi Thanh Thuy; Fearnley, Lyle; Dinh, Xuan Tung; Tran, Thi Tram Anh; Tran, Trong Tung; Nguyen, Van Trong; Tago, Damian; Padungtod, Pawin; Newman, Scott H; Tripodi, Astrid

2017-01-01

Extensive research in Vietnam and elsewhere has shown that live bird markets (LBMs) play a significant role in the ecology and zoonotic transmission of avian influenzas (AIs) including H5N1 and H7N9. Vietnam has a large number of LBMs reflecting the consumer preferences for live poultry. Under pressure to mitigate risks for H7N9 and other zoonotic AIs, Vietnam is considering, among other mitigation measures, temporary closures of LBMs as a policy to reduce risk of AI outbreaks. However, the efficacy of market closure is debated, particularly because little is known about how poultry traders may react, and whether trading may emerge outside formal marketplaces. Combining efforts of anthropologists, economists, sociologists, and veterinarians can be useful to elucidate the drivers behind poultry traders' reactions and better understanding the barriers to implementing risk mitigation measures. In this paper, we present results from a stakeholder survey of LBM stakeholders in Vietnam. Our qualitative data show that trading outside formal markets is very likely to occur in the event of a temporary LBM market closure. Our data show that the poultry value chain in Vietnam remains highly flexible, with traders willing and able to trade poultry in many possible locations. Our results indicate that simplification of the poultry value chain along with strict enforcement, engagement of stakeholders, and adequate communication would be a necessary prerequisite before market closure could be an effective policy.

Technology Risk Mitigation Research and Development for the Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes (MaRIE) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Cris W.; Fernández, Juan; Hartsfield, Thomas; Sandberg, Richard; Sheffield, Richard; Tapia, John P.; Wang, Zhehui

2017-06-01

NNSA does not have a capability to understand and test the response of materials and conditions necessary to determine the linkages between microstructure of materials and performance in extreme weapons-relevant environments. Required is an x-ray source, coherent to optimize imaging capability, brilliant and high repetition-rate to address all relevant time scales, and with high enough energy to see into and through the amount of material in the middle or mesoscale where microstructure determines materials response. The Department of Energy has determined there is a mission need for a MaRIE Project to deliver this capability. There are risks to the Project to successfully deliver all the technology needed to provide the capability for the mission need and to use those photons to control the time-dependent production and performance of materials. The present technology risk mitigation activities for the MaRIE project are: developing ultrafast high-energy x-ray detectors, combining the data from several imaging probes to obtain multi-dimensional information about the sample, and developing techniques for bulk dynamic measurements of temperature. This talk will describe these efforts and other critical technology elements requiring future investment by the project.

US Food and Drug Administration's Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy for extended-release and long-acting opioids: pros and cons, and a European perspective.

PubMed

Mercadante, Sebastiano; Craig, David; Giarratano, Antonello

2012-12-24

Prescriptions for opioid analgesics to manage moderate-to-severe chronic non-cancer pain have increased markedly over the last decade. An unintentional consequence of greater prescription opioid utilization has been the parallel increase in misuse, abuse and overdose, which are serious risks associated with all opioid analgesics. In response to disturbing rises in prescription opioid abuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed the implementation of aggressive Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). While REMS could dramatically change the development, release, marketing and prescription of extended-release opioids, questions remain on how these programmes may influence prescribing practices, patient safety and ultimately patient access to these agents. The extent of the availability and misuse of prescription opioids in Europe is difficult to assess from the data currently available, due in large part to the considerable differences in prescribing patterns and regulations between countries. Balancing the availability of prescription opioids for those patients who have pain, while discouraging illicit use, is a complex challenge and requires effective efforts on many levels, particularly in Europe where policies are quite different between countries.

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John D.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Eisenman, David J.; Peer, Scott G.; Fasanella, Edward L.; Lawrence, Charles

2009-01-01

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Dollars and sense: Mitigating budget risk for ICD-10.

PubMed

Newell, Lucy Mancini; DeSilva, Joseph J

2013-02-01

The extended deadline for ICD-10 implementation is time that should not be wasted. Healthcare leaders should keep three things in mind: CFOs should approach the effort knowing the costs of ICD-10 implementation will be high and spread over multiple budget years. Training, productivity, and contractual issues are among key areas that will be challenged by ICD-10 implementation. Healthcare finance leaders should work to improve cash-on-hand and cash reserves prior to the ICD-10 deadline to ensure liquidity post-compliance.

Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

2011-01-01

Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new agents (notably vegetative feeders) can help mitigate existing widespread invasions. Trans-boundary sharing of information will assist efforts to limit future invasions, in particular, management strategies need to be better evaluated, monitored, published and publicised so that global best-practice procedures can be developed.

Flood risk awareness during the 2011 floods in the central United States: showcasing the importance of hydrologic data and interagency collaboration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Schwein, Noreen O.; Shadie, Charles E.

2012-01-01

Floods have long had a major impact on society and the environment, evidenced by the more than 1,500 federal disaster declarations since 1952 that were associated with flooding. Calendar year 2011 was an epic year for floods in the United States, from the flooding on the Red River of the North in late spring to the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri River basin floods in the spring and summer to the flooding caused by Hurricane Irene along the eastern seaboard in August. As a society, we continually seek to reduce flood impacts, with these efforts loosely grouped into two categories: mitigation and risk awareness. Mitigation involves such activities as flood assessment, flood control implementation, and regulatory activities such as storm water and floodplain ordinances. Risk awareness ranges from issuance of flood forecasts and warnings to education of lay audiences about the uncertainties inherent in assessing flood probability and risk. This paper concentrates on the issue of flood risk awareness, specifically the importance of hydrologic data and good interagency communication in providing accurate and timely flood forecasts to maximize risk awareness. The 2011 floods in the central United States provide a case study of the importance of hydrologic data and the value of proper, timely, and organized communication and collaboration around the collection and dissemination of that hydrologic data in enhancing the effectiveness of flood forecasting and flood risk awareness.

A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

PubMed

Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

2016-10-01

A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The proposed approach has potential applications for multiple landscapes, threats and spatial scales and could be extended to other valuable natural areas, including protected areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

PubMed

Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

2011-04-01

The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade.

Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

2017-01-01

The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

Improving outcomes in cancer diagnosis, prevention and control: barriers, facilitators and the need for health literacy in Ibadan Nigeria.

PubMed

Adedimeji, Adebola A; Lounsbury, David; Popoola, Oluwafemi; Asuzu, Chioma; Lawal, Akinmayowa; Oladoyin, V; Crifase, Cassandra; Agalliu, Ilir; Shankar, Viswanathan; Adebiyi, Akindele

2017-10-01

Cancers constitute a significant public health problem in Nigeria. Breast, cervix and prostate cancers are leading causes of cancer-related deaths. Changing diets, lifestyles, HIV/AIDS and macro-structural factors contribute to cancer morbidity and mortality. Poor health information linking cancer risk to individual behaviors, environmental pollutants and structural barriers undermine prevention/control efforts. Studies suggest increasing health literacy and empowering individuals to take preventive action will improve outcomes and mitigate impact on a weak health system. We obtained qualitative data from 80 men, women, and young adults in 11 focus groups to assess beliefs, risk-perceptions, preventive behaviors and perceptions of barriers and facilitators to cancer control in Ibadan, Nigeria and conducted thematic analysis. Participants demonstrated awareness of cancers and mentioned several risk factors related to individual behaviors and the environment. Nonetheless, myths and misconceptions as well as micro, meso and macro level barriers impede prevention and control efforts. Developing and implementing comprehensive context-relevant health literacy interventions in community settings are urgently needed.Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Induced changes in island fox (Urocyon littoralis) activity do not mitigate the extinction threat posed by a novel predator.

PubMed

Hudgens, Brian R; Garcelon, David K

2011-03-01

Prey response to novel predators influences the impacts on prey populations of introduced predators, bio-control efforts, and predator range expansion. Predicting the impacts of novel predators on native prey requires an understanding of both predator avoidance strategies and their potential to reduce predation risk. We examine the response of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) to invasion by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Foxes reduced daytime activity and increased night time activity relative to eagle-naïve foxes. Individual foxes reverted toward diurnal tendencies following eagle removal efforts. We quantified the potential population impact of reduced diurnality by modeling island fox population dynamics. Our model predicted an annual population decline similar to what was observed following golden eagle invasion and predicted that the observed 11% reduction in daytime activity would not reduce predation risk sufficiently to reduce extinction risk. The limited effect of this behaviorally plastic predator avoidance strategy highlights the importance of linking behavioral change to population dynamics for predicting the impact of novel predators on resident prey populations.

An Incremental, Measurable Approach to Increased Seismic Safety in Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickey, J. S.

2001-05-01

Plans for a multiyear effort to assess and mitigate seismic risks in municipalities throughout Latin America and the Caribbean are being developed by a committee of scientists, engineers and public servants from throughout the region. Prompted by AGU and GeoHazards International, with start-up funding from the AGU Council through the AGU Committee on International Participation, the effort will involve scientists, engineers, architects, urban planners, civil defense authorities, municipal authorities, public health authorities, and commerical interests. With technical guidance provided by the project, teams of volunteers will assess risks in their own municipalities and will identify and adopt measures to reduce those risks. Planned by Latin Americans for the benefit of Latin America, the process, which is intended to run for a ten year period, will be iterative and incremental. Progress will be measurable and will be reported at triennial conferences. As an international organization, well-represented in the region and unencumbered by political or commercial relationships, AGU is able to provide effective administrative support for this challenging endeavor.

A catchment scale evaluation of multiple stressor effects in headwater streams.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Jes J; McKnight, Ursula S; Loinaz, Maria C; Thomsen, Nanna I; Olsson, Mikael E; Bjerg, Poul L; Binning, Philip J; Kronvang, Brian

2013-01-01

Mitigation activities to improve water quality and quantity in streams as well as stream management and restoration efforts are conducted in the European Union aiming to improve the chemical, physical and ecological status of streams. Headwater streams are often characterised by impairment of hydromorphological, chemical, and ecological conditions due to multiple anthropogenic impacts. However, they are generally disregarded as water bodies for mitigation activities in the European Water Framework Directive despite their importance for supporting a higher ecological quality in higher order streams. We studied 11 headwater streams in the Hove catchment in the Copenhagen region. All sites had substantial physical habitat and water quality impairments due to anthropogenic influence (intensive agriculture, urban settlements, contaminated sites and low base-flow due to water abstraction activities in the catchment). We aimed to identify the dominating anthropogenic stressors at the catchment scale causing ecological impairment of benthic macroinvertebrate communities and provide a rank-order of importance that could help in prioritising mitigation activities. We identified numerous chemical and hydromorphological impacts of which several were probably causing major ecological impairments, but we were unable to provide a robust rank-ordering of importance suggesting that targeted mitigation efforts on single anthropogenic stressors in the catchment are unlikely to have substantial effects on the ecological quality in these streams. The SPEcies At Risk (SPEAR) index explained most of the variability in the macroinvertebrate community structure, and notably, SPEAR index scores were often very low (<10% SPEAR abundance). An extensive re-sampling of a subset of the streams provided evidence that especially insecticides were probably essential contributors to the overall ecological impairment of these streams. Our results suggest that headwater streams should be considered in future management and mitigation plans. Catchment-based management is necessary because several anthropogenic stressors exceeded problematic thresholds, suggesting that more holistic approaches should be preferred. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

2015-12-01

Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea. Finally, we build an integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost, and adaptation cost by climate change

Arsenic in Bangladesh Groundwater: from Science to Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Geen, A.; Ahmed, K. M.; Graziano, J. H.

2004-12-01

A large proportion of the populations of Bangladesh and other South Asian countries is at risk of contracting cancers and other debilitating diseases due to exposure to high concentrations of naturally occurring arsenic in groundwater supplied by millions of tube wells. Starting in January 2000, and in partnership with several Bangladeshi institutions, an interdisciplinary team of health, earth, and social scientists from Columbia University has focused its efforts to address this crisis on a 25 km2 region in Araihazar upazila, about 20 km northeast of Dhaka. The project started with the recording of the position and depth of ~6600 wells in the area, the collection of groundwater samples from these wells, and laboratory analyses for arsenic and a suite of other constituents. This was followed by the recruitment of 12,000 adult inhabitants of the area for a long-term cohort study of the effects of arsenic exposure, as well as cross-sectional studies of their children. This presentation will focus on (1) the extreme degree of spatial variability of arsenic concentrations in Bangladesh groundwater, (2) the notion that spatial variability hampers mitigation in the sense that it complicates predictions but also offers an opportunity for mitigation because many households live within walking or drilling distance of safe water, and (3) the implication of recent advances in our understanding of the mechanisms of arsenic mobilization for potential temporal changes in groundwater arsenic. In addition, (4) a unique data set documenting the response of 6500 households to 4 years of mitigation in Araihazar, supported by documented reductions in exposure to arsenic based on urine analyses, will be presented. The presentation will conclude with (5) a proposal for scaling up mitigation efforts to the rest of the country by targeting safe aquifers with information transmitted to the village level from a central data base using cellular phones.

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less

Overview of NASA's Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephan, Ryan A.

2010-01-01

NASA's Constellation Program includes the Orion, Altair, and Lunar Surface Systems project offices. The first two elements, Orion and Altair, are manned space vehicles while the third element is broader and includes several sub-elements including Rovers and a Lunar Habitat. The upcoming planned missions involving these systems and vehicles include several risks and design challenges. Due to the unique thermal environment, many of these risks and challenges are associated with the vehicles' thermal control system. NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) includes the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP). ETDP consists of several technology development projects. The project chartered with mitigating the aforementioned risks and design challenges is the Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project. The risks and design challenges are addressed through a rigorous technology development process that culminates with an integrated thermal control system test. The resulting hardware typically has a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of six. This paper summarizes the development efforts being performed by the technology development project. The development efforts involve heat acquisition and heat rejection hardware including radiators, heat exchangers, and evaporators. The project has also been developing advanced phase change material heat sinks and performing assessments for thermal control system fluids.

Maglev program test plan. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

deBenedet, D.; Gilchrist, A.J.; Karanian, L.A.

1992-07-01

Maglev systems represent a promising evolution in the high-speed ground transportation, offering speeds in excess of 300 mph along with the potential for low operating costs and minimal environmental impact. The goal of this effort is to investigate the feasibility and viability of maglev systems in the United States. The emergence of a sophisticated technology such as maglev requires a need for a coordinated research test program and the determination of test requirements to identify and mitigate development risk and to maximize the use of domestic resources. The study is directed toward the identification and characterization of maglev systems developmentmore » risks tied to a preliminary system architecture. Research objectives are accomplished by surveying experiences from previous maglev development programs, both foreign and domestic, and interviews with individuals involved with maglev research and testing. Findings include ninety-four distinct development risks and twenty risk types. Planning and implementation requirements are identified for a maglev test program, including the development of a facilities strategy to meet any operational concepts that evolve out of early development effort. Also specified is the logical development flow and associated long-lead support needs for sub-scale and full-scale testing.« less

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Genetic testing for hereditary cancer predisposition: BRCA1/2, Lynch syndrome, and beyond

PubMed Central

Hall, MJ; Obeid, EI; Schwartz, SC; Mantia-Smaldone, G; Forman, AD; Daly, MB

2016-01-01

Obstetrician/gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists serve an integral role in the care of women at increased hereditary risk of cancer. Their contribution includes initial identification of high risk patients, screening procedures like bimanual exam, trans-vaginal ultrasound and endometrial biopsy, prophylaxis via TAH and/or BSO, and chemoprevention. Further, gynecologists also serve a central role in the management of the secondary repercussions of efforts to mitigate increased cancer risks, including vasomotor symptoms, sexual function, bone health, cardiovascular disease, and mental health. The past several years has seen multiple new high and moderate penetrance genes introduced into the clinical care of women at increased risk of gynecologic malignancy. Awareness of these new genes and the availability of new multigene panel tests is critical for providers on the front-line of women’s health. PMID:26812021

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirol, Christopher P.; Sutphin, Andrew L.; Bond, Laura S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Maechtle, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush Artemisia spp. habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species — including the greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA, and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5-km2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success.

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

PubMed

Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

2016-12-01

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.

PubMed

Brouwer, Andrew F; Masters, Nina B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2018-04-20

Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed. QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.

Near Earth Asteroid Characteristics for Asteroid Threat Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Jessie

2015-01-01

Information about the physical characteristics of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) is needed to model behavior during atmospheric entry, to assess the risk of an impact, and to model possible mitigation techniques. The intrinsic properties of interest to entry and mitigation modelers, however, rarely are directly measureable. Instead we measure other properties and infer the intrinsic physical properties, so determining the complete set of characteristics of interest is far from straightforward. In addition, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. We will provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the physical characteristics of importance to asteroid threat assessment. In addition, an ongoing effort to collate NEA characteristics into a readily accessible database for use by the planetary defense community will be discussed.

Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

PubMed

Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

2018-05-01

A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated considerations for determining social vulnerability to wildfire and articulate alternative means to collect such information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Kyoo-Man, E-mail: ha1999@hotmail.com

In Korea, there is a pervasive feeling of invincibility to the point that people and organizations do not believe that disasters can strike them. This has impact on the level of preparedness for disasters. This study aims to delve into how Korea has to change its governmental policies/practices with some private partners' efforts to mitigate disaster risks. A case study was utilized as the major methodology by comparing exclusive management with inclusive management. These two approaches have been comparatively analyzed via four variables, namely the central government, the local governments, the incident commander, and other stakeholders. The major finding ismore » that Korea's practices and policies have to evolve from the current exclusive management into future-oriented inclusive management. Moreover, the importance of communication, cooperation, collaboration, and multi-discipline coordination is discussed. Additionally, the problem of reductionism and equal participation among all stakeholders, as well as the resistance from vested interests, are recognized and elaborated for Korea and the international community. - Highlights: • Only a few stakeholders in Korea believe that disaster can happen to anyone. This study aims to delve into how Korea has to change its current practices to mitigate disaster risks. • To compare exclusive management with inclusive management, we have examined four comparative variables, namely the central government's policy, local government's strategy, the incident commander's post, and other stakeholders' efforts. • The major finding is that Korea's practices and policies have to evolve from the current exclusive management into future-oriented inclusive management.« less

Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

PubMed

Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

2015-05-01

Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Standardizing terms, definitions and concepts for describing and interpreting unwanted immunogenicity of biopharmaceuticals: recommendations of the Innovative Medicines Initiative ABIRISK consortium.

PubMed

Rup, B; Pallardy, M; Sikkema, D; Albert, T; Allez, M; Broet, P; Carini, C; Creeke, P; Davidson, J; De Vries, N; Finco, D; Fogdell-Hahn, A; Havrdova, E; Hincelin-Mery, A; C Holland, M; H Jensen, P E; Jury, E C; Kirby, H; Kramer, D; Lacroix-Desmazes, S; Legrand, J; Maggi, E; Maillère, B; Mariette, X; Mauri, C; Mikol, V; Mulleman, D; Oldenburg, J; Paintaud, G; R Pedersen, C; Ruperto, N; Seitz, R; Spindeldreher, S; Deisenhammer, F

2015-09-01

Biopharmaceuticals (BPs) represent a rapidly growing class of approved and investigational drug therapies that is contributing significantly to advancing treatment in multiple disease areas, including inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, genetic deficiencies and cancer. Unfortunately, unwanted immunogenic responses to BPs, in particular those affecting clinical safety or efficacy, remain among the most common negative effects associated with this important class of drugs. To manage and reduce risk of unwanted immunogenicity, diverse communities of clinicians, pharmaceutical industry and academic scientists are involved in: interpretation and management of clinical and biological outcomes of BP immunogenicity, improvement of methods for describing, predicting and mitigating immunogenicity risk and elucidation of underlying causes. Collaboration and alignment of efforts across these communities is made difficult due to lack of agreement on concepts, practices and standardized terms and definitions related to immunogenicity. The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI; www.imi-europe.org), ABIRISK consortium [Anti-Biopharmaceutical (BP) Immunization Prediction and Clinical Relevance to Reduce the Risk; www.abirisk.eu] was formed by leading clinicians, academic scientists and EFPIA (European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations) members to elucidate underlying causes, improve methods for immunogenicity prediction and mitigation and establish common definitions around terms and concepts related to immunogenicity. These efforts are expected to facilitate broader collaborations and lead to new guidelines for managing immunogenicity. To support alignment, an overview of concepts behind the set of key terms and definitions adopted to date by ABIRISK is provided herein along with a link to access and download the ABIRISK terms and definitions and provide comments (http://www.abirisk.eu/index_t_and_d.asp). © 2015 British Society for Immunology.

Standardizing terms, definitions and concepts for describing and interpreting unwanted immunogenicity of biopharmaceuticals: recommendations of the Innovative Medicines Initiative ABIRISK consortium

PubMed Central

Rup, B; Pallardy, M; Sikkema, D; Albert, T; Allez, M; Broet, P; Carini, C; Creeke, P; Davidson, J; De Vries, N; Finco, D; Fogdell-Hahn, A; Havrdova, E; Hincelin-Mery, A; C Holland, M; H Jensen, P E; Jury, E C; Kirby, H; Kramer, D; Lacroix-Desmazes, S; Legrand, J; Maggi, E; Maillère, B; Mariette, X; Mauri, C; Mikol, V; Mulleman, D; Oldenburg, J; Paintaud, G; R Pedersen, C; Ruperto, N; Seitz, R; Spindeldreher, S; Deisenhammer, F

2015-01-01

Biopharmaceuticals (BPs) represent a rapidly growing class of approved and investigational drug therapies that is contributing significantly to advancing treatment in multiple disease areas, including inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, genetic deficiencies and cancer. Unfortunately, unwanted immunogenic responses to BPs, in particular those affecting clinical safety or efficacy, remain among the most common negative effects associated with this important class of drugs. To manage and reduce risk of unwanted immunogenicity, diverse communities of clinicians, pharmaceutical industry and academic scientists are involved in: interpretation and management of clinical and biological outcomes of BP immunogenicity, improvement of methods for describing, predicting and mitigating immunogenicity risk and elucidation of underlying causes. Collaboration and alignment of efforts across these communities is made difficult due to lack of agreement on concepts, practices and standardized terms and definitions related to immunogenicity. The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI; http://www.imi-europe.org), ABIRISK consortium [Anti-Biopharmaceutical (BP) Immunization Prediction and Clinical Relevance to Reduce the Risk; http://www.abirisk.eu] was formed by leading clinicians, academic scientists and EFPIA (European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations) members to elucidate underlying causes, improve methods for immunogenicity prediction and mitigation and establish common definitions around terms and concepts related to immunogenicity. These efforts are expected to facilitate broader collaborations and lead to new guidelines for managing immunogenicity. To support alignment, an overview of concepts behind the set of key terms and definitions adopted to date by ABIRISK is provided herein along with a link to access and download the ABIRISK terms and definitions and provide comments (http://www.abirisk.eu/index_t_and_d.asp). PMID:25959571

Identifying non-traditional stakeholders with whom to engage, when mitigating antimicrobial resistance in foodborne pathogens (Canada).

PubMed

Majowicz, Shannon E; Parmley, E Jane; Carson, Carolee; Pintar, Katarina

2018-03-12

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a critical public health issue that involves interrelationships between people, animals, and the environment. Traditionally, interdisciplinary efforts to mitigate AMR in the food chain have involved public health, human and veterinary medicine, and agriculture stakeholders. Our objective was to identify a more diverse range of stakeholders, beyond those traditionally engaged in AMR mitigation efforts, via diagramming both proximal and distal factors impacting, or impacted by, use and resistance along the Canadian food chain. We identified multiple stakeholders that are not traditionally engaged by public health when working to mitigate AMR in the food chain, including those working broadly in the area of food (e.g., nutrition, food security, international market economists) and health (e.g., health communication, program evaluation), as well as in domains as diverse as law, politics, demography, education, and social innovation. These findings can help researchers and policymakers who work on issues related to AMR in the food chain to move beyond engaging the 'traditional' agri-food stakeholders (e.g., veterinarians, farmers), to also engage those from the wider domains identified here, as potential stakeholders in their AMR mitigation efforts.

The price of safety: costs for mitigating and coping with Alpine hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Thieken, A. H.

2013-10-01

Due to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management. In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values (purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002 floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed.

Occupational health hazards in the interventional laboratory: time for a safer environment.

PubMed

Klein, Lloyd W; Miller, Donald L; Balter, Stephen; Laskey, Warren; Haines, David; Norbash, Alexander; Mauro, Matthew A; Goldstein, James A

2009-07-01

This document is a consensus statement by the major American societies of physicians who work in the interventional laboratory environment. It reviews available data on the prevalence of occupational health risks and summarizes ongoing epidemiologic studies designed to further elucidate these risks. Its purpose is to affirm that the interventional laboratory poses workplace hazards that must be acknowledged, better understood, and mitigated to the greatest extent possible. Vigorous efforts are advocated to reduce these hazards. Interventional physicians and their professional societies, working together with industry, should strive toward minimizing operator radiation exposure, eliminating the need for personal protective apparel, and ending the orthopedic and ergonomic consequences of the interventional laboratory work environment.

Occupational health hazards in the interventional laboratory: time for a safer environment.

PubMed

Klein, Lloyd W; Miller, Donald L; Balter, Stephen; Laskey, Warren; Haines, David; Norbash, Alexander; Mauro, Matthew A; Goldstein, James A

2009-02-15

This document is a consensus statement by the major American societies of physicians who work in the interventional laboratory environment. It reviews available data on the prevalence of occupational health risks and summarizes ongoing epidemiologic studies designed to further elucidate these risks. Its purpose is to affirm that the interventional laboratory poses workplace hazards that must be acknowledged, better understood, and mitigated to the greatest extent possible. Vigorous efforts are advocated to reduce these hazards. Interventional physicians and their professional societies, working together with industry, should strive toward minimizing operator radiation exposure, eliminating the need for personal protective apparel, and ending the orthopedic and ergonomic consequences of the interventional laboratory work environment. Copyright SIR, 2009

Occupational health hazards in the interventional laboratory: time for a safer environment.

PubMed

Klein, Lloyd W; Miller, Donald L; Balter, Stephen; Laskey, Warren; Haines, David; Norbash, Alexander; Mauro, Matthew A; Goldstein, James A

2009-02-01

This document is a consensus statement by the major American societies of physicians who work in the interventional laboratory environment. It reviews available data on the prevalence of occupational health risks and summarizes ongoing epidemiologic studies designed to further elucidate these risks. Its purpose is to affirm that the interventional laboratory poses workplace hazards that must be acknowledged, better understood, and mitigated to the greatest extent possible. Vigorous efforts are advocated to reduce these hazards. Interventional physicians and their professional societies, working together with industry, should strive toward minimizing operator radiation exposure, eliminating the need for personal protective apparel, and ending the orthopedic and ergonomic consequences of the interventional laboratory work environment.

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

PubMed

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Management of the volcanic crises of Galeras volcano: Social, economic and institutional aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardona, Omar D.

1997-05-01

This paper presents a summary of the institutional management of the volcanic hazard and risk in the areas that surround Galeras volcano, Colombia, during its recent activity. The social and economic problems discussed have stemmed from difficulties in forecasting the behavior of the volcano and the inadequate management of the warnings by various government bodies and the media. The Galeras situation had economic, social, and psychological effects that contributed to resistance in implementing mitigation measures. Furthermore, the political authorities were reluctant to accept the volcanic risk. At regional and local levels, certain business organizations and a large part of the population also were inadequately prepared to accept the risk, despite the effort and insistence at the national level to implement a volcano emergency preparedness plan.

Ecological assessment of a wetlands mitigation bank (Phase I: baseline ecological conditions and initial restoration efforts)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

The Tulula Wetlands Mitigation Bank, the first wetlands mitigation bank in the Blue Ridge Province of North Carolina, was created to compensate for losses resulting from highway projects in western North Carolina. The overall objective for the Tulula...

Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

2015-12-01

Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element in lowering the cost of climate change mitigation solutions.

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roux, Izak Johannes, III

Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

Evaluation of the role of risk perception in stakeholder engagement to prevent lead exposure in an urban setting.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Lal, Pankaj; Vedwan, Neeraj; Wolde, Bernabas; Miller, Michael E

2016-12-15

Stakeholder engagement is a vital sustainable remediation practice for obtaining useful feedback and identifying societal needs. Evaluating and integrating risk perception of stakeholders into remediation and outreach efforts allows for greater insight, increases the likelihood of success and ultimately, benefits the community by protecting its members from environmental hazards. In this study, we identified risk perception factors that influenced residents' level of concern for mitigating their exposure to elevated concentrations of lead in household paint and historic fill material. Risk perception factors were assessed by an in-person survey conducted in public green spaces. The analysis of survey participants' responses indicated that their perception of risk to exposed lead was mostly influenced by the presence of hazardous materials in close proximity to their residence, the ability to address pollution, and awareness, interest, and individual accountability in mitigating environmental risks. Responses also revealed that residents considered risk of lead and soil pollution as less menacing than the presence of more immediate and perceptible risks posed by factors such as air and water pollution. In addition, the community seemed to exhibit "optimism bias" and did not identify itself at high risk to susceptible and immediate hazards, including lead exposure. This lack of concern over lead exposure created a significant obstacle to community participation in state-led education and outreach programs. By integrating risk perception analysis and increasing stakeholder engagement, we can bring more attention to this issue, educate the public about the threat of lead pollution, and efficiently use financial resources to implement a more sustainable solution. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-15

manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved... the random variable of interest is viewed in concert with a related random vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original... manage , predict and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved situation faced

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

2014-06-01

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2005-01-01

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

Effects of soil amendments and other practices on the success of the Virginia Department of Transportation's non-tidal wetland mitigation efforts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

Construction of created wetlands to mitigate for highway impacts requires more than $100,000 per ha of impacts. A detailed study of soil, hydrology, and vegetation at 10 recently constructed non-tidal mitigation sites indicates excessive soil compact...

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland-urban interface in the western United States.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R; Theobald, David M; Carnwath, Gunnar C; Chapman, Teresa B

2009-06-30

Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004-2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

2008 River Corridor Closure Contractor Revegetation and Mitigation Monitoring Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. T. Lindsey; K. A. Gano

2008-09-30

The purpose of this report is to document the status of revegetation projects and natural resources mitigation efforts that have been conducted for remediated waste sites and other activities associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act cleanup of National Priorities List waste sites at Hanford. This report documents the results of revegetation and mitigation monitoring conducted in 2008 and includes 22 revegetation/restoration projects, one revegetation/mitigation project, and two bat habitat mitigation projects.

QuEST: Qualifying Environmentally Sustainable Technologies. Volume 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Pattie L.

2009-01-01

In 2004, in one of their first collaborative efforts, Centro Para Prevencao da Poluicao (Portuguese Center for Pollution Prevention or C3P). teamed with Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Principal Center (TEERM) and two Portuguese entities, TAP Portugal (Portuguese National Airline) and OGMA Indtistria Aeron utica de Portugal (Portuguese Aeronautics Industry), to target the reduction of hexavalent chromium, cadmium, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in aircraft maintenance operations. This project focused on two coating systems that utilize non-chrome pretreatments and low-VOC primers and topcoats.

Microfinance and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Assessing its Promise and Limitations

PubMed Central

Dworkin, Shari L.; Blankenship, Kim

2013-01-01

Researchers increasingly argue that poverty and gender inequality exacerbate the spread of HIV/AIDS and that economic empowerment can therefore assist in the prevention and mitigation of the disease, particularly for women. This paper critically evaluates such claims. First, we examine the promises and limits of integrated HIV/AIDS prevention and microfinance programs by examining the available evidence base. We then propose future research agendas and next steps that may help to clear current ambiguities about the potential for economic programs to contribute to HIV/AIDS risk reduction efforts. PMID:19294500

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-07

vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved... the random variable of interest is viewed in concert with a related random vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original...measures of risk. They view a random variable of interest in concert with an auxiliary random vector that helps to manage , predict and mitigate the risk

Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

PubMed

Patterson, Lauren A; Konschnik, Katherine E; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O; Kiesecker, Joseph; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James E

2017-03-07

Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m 3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m 3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m 3 . Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

Unconventional oil and gas spills: Risks, mitigation priorities, and state reporting requirements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, Lauren A.; Konschnik, Katherine E.; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James

2017-01-01

Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2–16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m3. Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool (http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

2011-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic tomography of P- and S- wave structure, seismic interferometry for shallow structure and using the dense MeSO-net data. We observed the 2011 Tohoku-oki event and its aftershocks including M7.7 event off Ibaraki prefecture, which is the largest aftershock so far. We imaged source radiation energy using the MeSO-net data by the back-projection method (Honda et al., 2011). We found seismic activity in the Kanto region has been activated after the event, suggesting increased seismic hazard in Kanto region even for plate boundary events. We use a new image of PSP and Pacific plate. We evaluate potential zones of the M7+ earthquake on the plate boundary and within the PSP slab which will be used for risk mitigation study by a socio-science group. We will also discuss a future plan to continue our effort in seismic risk mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan area, stress regime of which is seriously changed by the Tohoku-oki event. This is supported by the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Genetic testing for hereditary cancer predisposition: BRCA1/2, Lynch syndrome, and beyond.

PubMed

Hall, M J; Obeid, E I; Schwartz, S C; Mantia-Smaldone, G; Forman, A D; Daly, M B

2016-03-01

Obstetrician/gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists serve an integral role in the care of women at increased hereditary risk of cancer. Their contribution includes initial identification of high risk patients, screening procedures like bimanual exam, trans-vaginal ultrasound and endometrial biopsy, prophylaxis via TAH and/or BSO, and chemoprevention. Further, gynecologists also serve a central role in the management of the secondary repercussions of efforts to mitigate increased cancer risks, including vasomotor symptoms, sexual function, bone health, cardiovascular disease, and mental health. The past several years has seen multiple new high and moderate penetrance genes introduced into the clinical care of women at increased risk of gynecologic malignancy. Awareness of these new genes and the availability of new multi-gene panel tests is critical for providers on the front-line of women's health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrity management of offshore structures and its implication on computation of structural action effects and resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moan, T.

2017-12-01

An overview of integrity management of offshore structures, with emphasis on the oil and gas energy sector, is given. Based on relevant accident experiences and means to control the associated risks, accidents are categorized from a technical-physical as well as human and organizational point of view. Structural risk relates to extreme actions as well as structural degradation. Risk mitigation measures, including adequate design criteria, inspection, repair and maintenance as well as quality assurance and control of engineering processes, are briefly outlined. The current status of risk and reliability methodology to aid decisions in the integrity management is briefly reviewed. Finally, the need to balance the uncertainties in data, methods and computational efforts and the cautious use and quality assurance and control in applying high fidelity methods to avoid human errors, is emphasized, and with a plea to develop both high fidelity as well as efficient, simplified methods for design.

Rationale and Development of a Security Assurance Index with Application toward the Development of a World Risk Index

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M. M. Plum; G. A. Beitel, PhD

Assurance categories were previously developed to support the Department of Homeland Security’s efforts in the mitigation of Cyber Control System events. Defined according to the risk of life and economic loss, the minimum range is designated by policy, whereas the maximum limit seems to be constrained only by limits and interdependencies of the event. Use of this life / assets scale has proven to be helpful in managing risk due to the scale's ease of use, communication, and understanding. Suggestions have been made that this scale could be applied to all events of terror, disaster, and calamity of an internationalmore » scale, with equally good results. This paper presents the history of some existing scales of disaster and assurance, the rationale behind the development of the original Security Assurance Index, and our proposed scale of disaster and calamity as a World Risk Index.« less

Risk Informed Margins Management as part of Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith

2014-06-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plantmore » safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.« less

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

2004-01-01

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

2016-04-01

Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when considering future efforts in sampling, risk management and mitigation.

Achieving Effective Risk Management Reduction Throughout Decommissioning at the Columbus Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K.D.

2006-07-01

Nuclear facility decontamination, dismantlement, and demolition activities provide a myriad of challenges along the path to reaching a safe, effective, and compliant decommissioning. Among the challenges faced during decommissioning, is the constant management and technical effort to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize the potential of risks of radiation exposures and other hazards to the worker, the surrounding community, and the environment. Management strategies to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize risks include incorporating strong safety and As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principles into an integrated work planning process. Technical and operational strategies may include utilizing predictive risk analysis tools to establish contaminationmore » limits for demolition and using remote handling equipment to reduce occupational and radiation exposures to workers. ECC and E2 Closure Services, LLC (Closure Services) have effectively utilized these management and technical tools to eliminate, mitigate, and reduce radiation exposures under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the decontamination and decommissioning Columbus Closure Project (CCP). In particular, Closure Services achieved significant dose reduction during the dismantling, decontamination, and demolition activities for Building JN-1. Management strategies during the interior dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of the facility demanded an integrated work planning processes that involved project disciplines. Integrated planning processes identified multiple opportunities to incorporate the use of remote handling equipment during the interior dismantling and demolition activities within areas of high radiation. Technical strategies employed predictive risk analysis tools to set upper bounding contamination limits, allowed for the radiological demolition of the building without exceeding administrative dose limits to the worker, general public, and the environment. Adhering to management and technical strategies during the dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of Building JN-1 enabled Closure Services to achieve strong ALARA performance, maintain absolute compliance under the regulatory requirements and meeting licensing conditions for decommissioning. (authors)« less

A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

PubMed

Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

2012-09-01

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

12 CFR 3.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Qualification requirements for incorporation of... qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The national bank's or Federal savings association's.... Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is provided by an unaffiliated company...

Bangladesh arsenic mitigation programs: lessons from the past

PubMed Central

Milton, Abul Hasnat; Hore, Samar Kumar; Hossain, Mohammad Zahid; Rahman, Mahfuzar

2012-01-01

Ensuring access to safe drinking water by 2015 is a global commitment by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In Bangladesh, significant achievements in providing safe water were made earlier by nationwide tubewell-installation programme. This achievement was overshadowed in 1993 by the presence of arsenic in underground water. A total of 6 million tubewells have been tested for arsenic since then, the results of which warranted immediate mitigation. Mitigation measures included tubewell testing and replacing; usage of deeper wells; surface water preservation and treatment; use of sanitary dug wells, river sand and pond sand filters; rainwater collection and storage; household-scale and large-scale arsenic filtrations; and rural pipeline water supply installation. Shallow tubewell installation was discouraged. Efforts have been made to increase people's awareness. This paper describes the lessons learned about mitigation efforts by the authors from experience of arsenic-related work. In spite of national mitigation plans and efforts, a few challenges still persist: inadequate coordination between stakeholders, differences in inter-sectoral attitudes, inadequate research to identify region-specific, suitable safe water options, poor quality of works by various implementing agencies, and inadequate dissemination of the knowledge and experiences to the people by those organizations. Issues such as long-time adaptation using ground water, poor surface water quality including bad smell and turbidity, and refusal to using neighbor's water have delayed mitigation measures so far. Region-specific mitigation water supply policy led by the health sector could be adopted with multisectoral involvement and responsibility. Large-scale piped water supply could be arranged through Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in new national approach. PMID:22558005

Bangladesh arsenic mitigation programs: lessons from the past.

PubMed

Milton, Abul Hasnat; Hore, Samar Kumar; Hossain, Mohammad Zahid; Rahman, Mahfuzar

2012-01-01

Ensuring access to safe drinking water by 2015 is a global commitment by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In Bangladesh, significant achievements in providing safe water were made earlier by nationwide tubewell-installation programme. This achievement was overshadowed in 1993 by the presence of arsenic in underground water. A total of 6 million tubewells have been tested for arsenic since then, the results of which warranted immediate mitigation. Mitigation measures included tubewell testing and replacing; usage of deeper wells; surface water preservation and treatment; use of sanitary dug wells, river sand and pond sand filters; rainwater collection and storage; household-scale and large-scale arsenic filtrations; and rural pipeline water supply installation. Shallow tubewell installation was discouraged. Efforts have been made to increase people's awareness. This paper describes the lessons learned about mitigation efforts by the authors from experience of arsenic-related work. In spite of national mitigation plans and efforts, a few challenges still persist: inadequate coordination between stakeholders, differences in inter-sectoral attitudes, inadequate research to identify region-specific, suitable safe water options, poor quality of works by various implementing agencies, and inadequate dissemination of the knowledge and experiences to the people by those organizations. Issues such as long-time adaptation using ground water, poor surface water quality including bad smell and turbidity, and refusal to using neighbor's water have delayed mitigation measures so far. Region-specific mitigation water supply policy led by the health sector could be adopted with multisectoral involvement and responsibility. Large-scale piped water supply could be arranged through Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in new national approach.

Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

PubMed

Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

2016-01-01

Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

Human error mitigation initiative (HEMI) : summary report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Susan M.; Ramos, M. Victoria; Wenner, Caren A.

2004-11-01

Despite continuing efforts to apply existing hazard analysis methods and comply with requirements, human errors persist across the nuclear weapons complex. Due to a number of factors, current retroactive and proactive methods to understand and minimize human error are highly subjective, inconsistent in numerous dimensions, and are cumbersome to characterize as thorough. An alternative and proposed method begins with leveraging historical data to understand what the systemic issues are and where resources need to be brought to bear proactively to minimize the risk of future occurrences. An illustrative analysis was performed using existing incident databases specific to Pantex weapons operationsmore » indicating systemic issues associated with operating procedures that undergo notably less development rigor relative to other task elements such as tooling and process flow. Future recommended steps to improve the objectivity, consistency, and thoroughness of hazard analysis and mitigation were delineated.« less

Persistent exposure to arsenic via drinking water in rural Bangladesh despite major mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Gardner, Renee; Hamadani, Jena; Grandér, Margaretha; Tofail, Fahmida; Nermell, Barbro; Palm, Brita; Kippler, Maria; Vahter, Marie

2011-12-01

Elevated arsenic levels in tube-well water in Bangladesh have prompted extensive mitigation projects. We evaluated the effectiveness of long-term mitigation efforts by longitudinally measuring arsenic exposure in pregnant women and their children, the most susceptible population groups. The study was nested in a population-based nutrition intervention in Matlab, Bangladesh. Mother-child pairs (n = 1951) were followed from 2001 to 2003, beginning in early gestation and continuing to 5 years postpartum. We measured arsenic concentrations in urine (U-As) of the 5-year-old children by using high-performance liquid chromatography online with hydride generation and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and compared them with earlier childhood U-As and maternal U-As during pregnancy. Children had elevated U-As at 5 years old (median = 51 μg/L, 5th-95th percentiles = 16-355 μg/L), and U-As distribution was similar to that observed in the mothers during gestation. Children's U-As at 5 years old significantly correlated with their U-As at 1.5 years old and to maternal U-As during early and late gestation. Despite major mitigation efforts, arsenic exposure remains highly elevated in rural Bangladesh. Further mitigation strategies are required and must be rigorously evaluated for long-term efficacy.

Persistent Exposure to Arsenic via Drinking Water in Rural Bangladesh Despite Major Mitigation Efforts

PubMed Central

Gardner, Renee; Hamadani, Jena; Grandér, Margaretha; Tofail, Fahmida; Nermell, Barbro; Palm, Brita; Kippler, Maria

2011-01-01

Objectives. Elevated arsenic levels in tube-well water in Bangladesh have prompted extensive mitigation projects. We evaluated the effectiveness of long-term mitigation efforts by longitudinally measuring arsenic exposure in pregnant women and their children, the most susceptible population groups. Methods. The study was nested in a population-based nutrition intervention in Matlab, Bangladesh. Mother–child pairs (n = 1951) were followed from 2001 to 2003, beginning in early gestation and continuing to 5 years postpartum. We measured arsenic concentrations in urine (U-As) of the 5-year-old children by using high-performance liquid chromatography online with hydride generation and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and compared them with earlier childhood U-As and maternal U-As during pregnancy. Results. Children had elevated U-As at 5 years old (median = 51 μg/L, 5th–95th percentiles = 16–355 μg/L), and U-As distribution was similar to that observed in the mothers during gestation. Children's U-As at 5 years old significantly correlated with their U-As at 1.5 years old and to maternal U-As during early and late gestation. Conclusions. Despite major mitigation efforts, arsenic exposure remains highly elevated in rural Bangladesh. Further mitigation strategies are required and must be rigorously evaluated for long-term efficacy. PMID:21778503

Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

PubMed

Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

2014-05-01

This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA): Challenges and New Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campola, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and emerging technologies often require space flight missions to accept elevated risk. The Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) flow includes environment definition, hazard evaluation, requirements definition, evaluation of design, and design trades to accommodate and mitigate the risk a project or program takes. Depending on the mission profile and environment, different missions may not necessarily benefit from the same risk reduction efforts or cost reduction attempts. While this poses challenges for the radiation engineer, it also presents opportunities to tailor the RHA flow to minimize risk based on the environment or design criticality while remaining within budget. This presentation will focus on an approach to RHA amidst the present challenges, using the same RHA flow as in the past, with examples from recent radiation test results. The current challenges and the types of risk will be identified. How these risks drive requirements development and realization will be explained with examples of device results and data for single event effects (SEE) and in one case total ionizing dose (TID).

Couple Relationship Functioning as a Source or Mitigator of HIV Risk: Associations Between Relationship Quality and Sexual Risk Behavior in Peri-urban Uganda.

PubMed

Ruark, Allison; Kajubi, Phoebe; Ruteikara, Sam; Green, Edward C; Hearst, Norman

2018-04-01

Despite evidence that a greater focus on couples could strengthen HIV prevention efforts, little health-related research has explored relationship functioning and relationship quality among couples in Africa. Using data from 162 couples (324 individuals) resident in a peri-urban Ugandan community, we assessed actor and partner effects of sexual risk behaviors on relationship quality, using psychometric measures of dyadic adjustment, sexual satisfaction, commitment, intimacy, and communication. For women and men, poor relationship quality was associated with having concurrent sexual partners and suspecting that one's partner had concurrent sexual partners (actor effects). Women's poor relationship quality was also associated with men's sexual risk behaviors (partner effects), although the inverse partner effect was not observed. These findings suggest that relationship quality is linked to HIV risk, particularly through the pathway of concurrent sexual partnerships, and that positive relationship attributes such as sexual satisfaction, intimacy, and constructive communication can help couples to avoid risk.

2007 River Corridor Closure Contractor Revegetation and Mitigation Monitoring Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

K. A. Gano; C. T. Lindsey

2007-09-27

The purpose of this report is to document the status of revegetation projects and natural resources mitigation efforts that have been conducted for remediated waste sites and other activities associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) cleanup of National Priorities List waste sites at Hanford. This report documents the results of revegetation and mitigation monitoring conducted in 2007 and includes 11 revegetation/restoration projects, one revegetation/mitigation project, and 3 bat habitat mitigation projects.

Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

2009-01-01

This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2013-01-01

The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

76 FR 7614 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-10

... of orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option... orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option orders, e... markets by helping to mitigate potential risks associated with the legging of stock-option orders...

Meetings with Registrants of Pet Spot-on Products

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Information about EPA efforts to mitigate adverse effects from spot-on products used on pets and the meetings the agency had with producers, or registrants of the products to discuss product-specific mitigation.

Research and Development on the Storage Ring Vacuum System for the APS Upgrade Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stillwell, B.; Brajuskovic, B.; Carter, J.

A number of research and development activities are underway at Argonne National Laboratory to build confidence in the designs for the storage ring vacuum system required for the Advanced Photon Source Up-grade project (APS-U) [1]. The predominant technical risks are: excessive residual gas pressures during operation; insufficient beam position monitor stability; excessive beam impedance; excessive heating by induced electrical surface currents; and insufficient operational reliability. Present efforts to mitigate these risks include: building and evaluating mockup assemblies; performing mechanical testing of chamber weld joints; developing computational tools; investigating design alternatives; and performing electrical bench measurements. Status of these activities andmore » some of what has been learned to date will be shared.« less

Untested pesticide mitigation requirements: ecological, agricultural, and legal implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, Nimish B.

2013-01-01

Every pesticide sold in the United States must have a U.S. Environmental Agency approved label on its container. The label provides directions for the pesticide’s use and is legally enforceable under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. For a pesticide with high ecological risks, mitigation statements may be included on the label to reduce the pesticide’s risks and to support its registration. Many mitigation mandates are easy to implement and are effective, however, at times, well-intentioned but novel and untested mitigation requirements, though theoretically sound, may not be perceived by the pesticide users to be practical under operational settings. Courts of law recognize the pesticide label as a legal document, therefore it is imperative that the label mitigation mandates be achievable. I use the rodenticide Rozol label to illustrate how an untested risk mitigation mandate may be considered too burdensome by pesticide users whereby the mitigation action may not be implemented in the field, resulting in label violation and unreasonable risks to the environment.

NASA Collaborative Approach Mitigates Environmentally-Driven Obsolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Brian; Leeney, Bob; Richards, Joni

2016-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions, like Department of Defense (DoD) organizations, require the rigorous testing and qualification of critical materials. Obsolescence supply risks created by environmental requirements can affect the cost, schedule and performance of NASA missions and the resilience of critical infrastructure. The NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center helps to identify obsolescence supply risks driven by environmental requirements and works proactively with NASA Centers and Programs, the DoD, the European Space Agency (ESA) and other agencies and partners to identify and evaluate environmentally friendly alternatives. TEERM tracks environmental regulations, identifies the potential loss of material availability and works with NASA programs and Centers to evaluate potential impacts through a risk assessment approach. TEERM collaborative projects identify, demonstrate and evaluate commercially viable alternative technologies and materials. A major focus during the Space Shuttle Program was the need to replace ozone depleting substances that were used in spray foam and cleaning applications. The potential obsolescence of coatings containing hexavalent chromium and the risks associated with lead free solder were also of concern for the Space Shuttle and present ongoing risks to new programs such as the Space Launch System. One current project teams NASA and ESA in the evaluation and testing of individual coatings and coating systems as replacements for hexavalent chromium coatings in aerospace applications. The proactive, collaborative approach used by TEERM helps reduce the cost burden on any one team partner, reduces duplication of effort, and enhances the technical quality and overall applicability of the testing and analysis.

Reducing environmental risk associated with laboratory decommissioning and property transfer.

PubMed

Dufault, R; Abelquist, E; Crooks, S; Demers, D; DiBerardinis, L; Franklin, T; Horowitz, M; Petullo, C; Sturchio, G

2000-12-01

The need for more or less space is a common laboratory problem. Solutions may include renovating existing space, leaving or demolishing old space, or acquiring new space or property for building. All of these options carry potential environmental risk. Such risk can be the result of activities related to the laboratory facility or property (e.g., asbestos, underground storage tanks, lead paint), or the research associated with it (e.g., radioactive, microbiological, and chemical contamination). Regardless of the option chosen to solve the space problem, the potential environmental risk must be mitigated and the laboratory space and/or property must be decommissioned or rendered safe prior to any renovation, demolition, or property transfer activities. Not mitigating the environmental risk through a decommissioning process can incur significant financial liability for any costs associated with future decommissioning cleanup activities. Out of necessity, a functioning system, environmental due diligence auditing, has evolved over time to assess environmental risk and reduce associated financial liability. This system involves a 4-phase approach to identify, document, manage, and clean up areas of environmental concern or liability, including contamination. Environmental due diligence auditing includes a) historical site assessment, b) characterization assessment, c) remedial effort and d) final status survey. General practice standards from the American Society for Testing and Materials are available for conducting the first two phases. However, standards have not yet been developed for conducting the third and final phases of the environmental due diligence auditing process. Individuals involved in laboratory decommissioning work in the biomedical research industry consider this a key weakness.

Reducing environmental risk associated with laboratory decommissioning and property transfer.

PubMed Central

Dufault, R; Abelquist, E; Crooks, S; Demers, D; DiBerardinis, L; Franklin, T; Horowitz, M; Petullo, C; Sturchio, G

2000-01-01

The need for more or less space is a common laboratory problem. Solutions may include renovating existing space, leaving or demolishing old space, or acquiring new space or property for building. All of these options carry potential environmental risk. Such risk can be the result of activities related to the laboratory facility or property (e.g., asbestos, underground storage tanks, lead paint), or the research associated with it (e.g., radioactive, microbiological, and chemical contamination). Regardless of the option chosen to solve the space problem, the potential environmental risk must be mitigated and the laboratory space and/or property must be decommissioned or rendered safe prior to any renovation, demolition, or property transfer activities. Not mitigating the environmental risk through a decommissioning process can incur significant financial liability for any costs associated with future decommissioning cleanup activities. Out of necessity, a functioning system, environmental due diligence auditing, has evolved over time to assess environmental risk and reduce associated financial liability. This system involves a 4-phase approach to identify, document, manage, and clean up areas of environmental concern or liability, including contamination. Environmental due diligence auditing includes a) historical site assessment, b) characterization assessment, c) remedial effort and d) final status survey. General practice standards from the American Society for Testing and Materials are available for conducting the first two phases. However, standards have not yet been developed for conducting the third and final phases of the environmental due diligence auditing process. Individuals involved in laboratory decommissioning work in the biomedical research industry consider this a key weakness. PMID:11121365

To risk or not to risk: Anxiety and the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation.

PubMed

Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

2016-06-01

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and inappropriate engagement in danger mitigation behavior. However, no research has addressed whether the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation behavior is affected by anxiety, though it is well recognized that this calibration is crucial for adaptive functioning. The current study aimed to examine whether anxiety is characterized by better or worse calibration of danger mitigation behavior to variations in risk magnitude. Low and high trait-anxious participants were presented with information about the likelihood and severity of a danger (loud noise burst) on each trial. Participants could decide to mitigate this danger by investing a virtual coin, at the cost of losing danger mitigation ability on subsequent trials. Importantly, level of risk likelihood and severity were varied independently, and the multiplicative relationship between the 2 defined total danger. Multilevel modeling showed that the magnitude of total danger predicted the probability of coin investments, over and above the effects of risk likelihood and severity, suggesting that participants calibrated their danger mitigation behavior to integrated risk information. Crucially, this calibration was affected by trait anxiety, indicating better calibration in high trait-anxious individuals. These results are discussed in light of existing knowledge and models of the effect of anxiety on risk perception and decision-making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target.

PubMed

Smith, Pete; Price, Jeff; Molotoks, Amy; Warren, Rachel; Malhi, Yadvinder

2018-05-13

We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can significantly reduce the number of species facing a potential loss of 50% of their climatic range. Further, there would be an increase of 5.5-14% of the globe that could potentially act as climatic refugia for plants and animals, an area equivalent to the current global protected area network. Efforts to meet the 1.5°C target through mitigation could largely be consistent with biodiversity protection/enhancement. For impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal technologies on biodiversity, some (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) could be neutral or positive, others (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are likely to lead to conflicts, while still others (e.g. afforestation/reforestation) are context-specific, when applied at scales necessary for meaningful greenhouse gas removal. Additional effort to meet the 1.5°C target presents some risks, particularly if inappropriately managed, but it also presents opportunities.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Pete; Price, Jeff; Molotoks, Amy; Warren, Rachel; Malhi, Yadvinder

2018-05-01

We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can significantly reduce the number of species facing a potential loss of 50% of their climatic range. Further, there would be an increase of 5.5-14% of the globe that could potentially act as climatic refugia for plants and animals, an area equivalent to the current global protected area network. Efforts to meet the 1.5°C target through mitigation could largely be consistent with biodiversity protection/enhancement. For impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal technologies on biodiversity, some (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) could be neutral or positive, others (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are likely to lead to conflicts, while still others (e.g. afforestation/reforestation) are context-specific, when applied at scales necessary for meaningful greenhouse gas removal. Additional effort to meet the 1.5°C target presents some risks, particularly if inappropriately managed, but it also presents opportunities. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Vulnerability and fragility risk indices for non-renewable resources.

PubMed

Miller, Anne E; Steele, Nicholas; Tobin, Benjamin W

2018-06-02

Protected areas are tasked with mitigating impacts to a wide range of invaluable resources. These resources are often subject to a variety of potential natural and anthropogenic impacts that require monitoring efforts and management actions to minimize the degradation of these resources. However, due to insufficient funding and staff, managers often have to prioritize efforts, leaving some resources at higher risk to impact. Attempts to address this issue have resulted in numerous qualitative and semi-quantitative frameworks for prioritization based on resource vulnerability. Here, we add to those methods by modifying an internationally standardized vulnerability framework, quantify both resource vulnerability, susceptibility to human disturbance, and fragility, susceptibility to natural disturbance. This modified framework quantifies impacts through a six-step process: identifying the resource and management objectives, identifying exposure and sensitivity indicators, define scoring criteria for each indicator, collect and compile data, calculate indices, and prioritize sites for mitigations. We applied this methodology to two resource types in Grand Canyon National Park (GRCA): caves and fossil sites. Three hundred sixty-five cave sites and 127 fossil sites in GRCA were used for this analysis. The majority of cave and fossil sites scored moderate to low vulnerability (0-6 out of 10 points) and moderate to low fragility for fossils. The percentage of sites that fell in the high-priority range was 5.5% for fossils and 21.9% for caves. These results are consistent with the known state of these resources and the results present a tool for managers to utilize to prioritize monitoring and management needs.

Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target

PubMed Central

Price, Jeff; Molotoks, Amy; Warren, Rachel

2018-01-01

We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can significantly reduce the number of species facing a potential loss of 50% of their climatic range. Further, there would be an increase of 5.5–14% of the globe that could potentially act as climatic refugia for plants and animals, an area equivalent to the current global protected area network. Efforts to meet the 1.5°C target through mitigation could largely be consistent with biodiversity protection/enhancement. For impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal technologies on biodiversity, some (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) could be neutral or positive, others (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are likely to lead to conflicts, while still others (e.g. afforestation/reforestation) are context-specific, when applied at scales necessary for meaningful greenhouse gas removal. Additional effort to meet the 1.5°C target presents some risks, particularly if inappropriately managed, but it also presents opportunities. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610386

Archipelago-wide island restoration in the Galápagos Islands: reducing costs of invasive mammal eradication programs and reinvasion risk.

PubMed

Carrion, Victor; Donlan, C Josh; Campbell, Karl J; Lavoie, Christian; Cruz, Felipe

2011-05-11

Invasive alien mammals are the major driver of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation on islands. Over the past three decades, invasive mammal eradication from islands has become one of society's most powerful tools for preventing extinction of insular endemics and restoring insular ecosystems. As practitioners tackle larger islands for restoration, three factors will heavily influence success and outcomes: the degree of local support, the ability to mitigate for non-target impacts, and the ability to eradicate non-native species more cost-effectively. Investments in removing invasive species, however, must be weighed against the risk of reintroduction. One way to reduce reintroduction risks is to eradicate the target invasive species from an entire archipelago, and thus eliminate readily available sources. We illustrate the costs and benefits of this approach with the efforts to remove invasive goats from the Galápagos Islands. Project Isabela, the world's largest island restoration effort to date, removed >140,000 goats from >500,000 ha for a cost of US$10.5 million. Leveraging the capacity built during Project Isabela, and given that goat reintroductions have been common over the past decade, we implemented an archipelago-wide goat eradication strategy. Feral goats remain on three islands in the archipelago, and removal efforts are underway. Efforts on the Galápagos Islands demonstrate that for some species, island size is no longer the limiting factor with respect to eradication. Rather, bureaucratic processes, financing, political will, and stakeholder approval appear to be the new challenges. Eradication efforts have delivered a suite of biodiversity benefits that are in the process of revealing themselves. The costs of rectifying intentional reintroductions are high in terms of financial and human resources. Reducing the archipelago-wide goat density to low levels is a technical approach to reducing reintroduction risk in the short-term, and is being complemented with a longer-term social approach focused on education and governance.

Archipelago-Wide Island Restoration in the Galápagos Islands: Reducing Costs of Invasive Mammal Eradication Programs and Reinvasion Risk

PubMed Central

Carrion, Victor; Donlan, C. Josh; Campbell, Karl J.; Lavoie, Christian; Cruz, Felipe

2011-01-01

Invasive alien mammals are the major driver of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation on islands. Over the past three decades, invasive mammal eradication from islands has become one of society's most powerful tools for preventing extinction of insular endemics and restoring insular ecosystems. As practitioners tackle larger islands for restoration, three factors will heavily influence success and outcomes: the degree of local support, the ability to mitigate for non-target impacts, and the ability to eradicate non-native species more cost-effectively. Investments in removing invasive species, however, must be weighed against the risk of reintroduction. One way to reduce reintroduction risks is to eradicate the target invasive species from an entire archipelago, and thus eliminate readily available sources. We illustrate the costs and benefits of this approach with the efforts to remove invasive goats from the Galápagos Islands. Project Isabela, the world's largest island restoration effort to date, removed >140,000 goats from >500,000 ha for a cost of US$10.5 million. Leveraging the capacity built during Project Isabela, and given that goat reintroductions have been common over the past decade, we implemented an archipelago-wide goat eradication strategy. Feral goats remain on three islands in the archipelago, and removal efforts are underway. Efforts on the Galápagos Islands demonstrate that for some species, island size is no longer the limiting factor with respect to eradication. Rather, bureaucratic processes, financing, political will, and stakeholder approval appear to be the new challenges. Eradication efforts have delivered a suite of biodiversity benefits that are in the process of revealing themselves. The costs of rectifying intentional reintroductions are high in terms of financial and human resources. Reducing the archipelago-wide goat density to low levels is a technical approach to reducing reintroduction risk in the short-term, and is being complemented with a longer-term social approach focused on education and governance. PMID:21589656

An Assessment of Environmental Health Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macatangay, Ariel V.

2013-01-01

Environmental health fundamentally addresses the physical, chemical, and biological risks external to the human body that can impact the health of a person by assessing and controlling these risks in order to generate and maintain a health-supportive environment. In manned spacecraft, environmental health risks are mitigated by a multi-disciplinary effort, employing several measures including active and passive controls, by establishing environmental standards (SMACs, SWEGs, microbial and acoustics limits), and through environmental monitoring. Human Health and Performance (HHP) scientists and Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) engineers consider environmental monitoring a vital component to an environmental health management strategy for maintaining a healthy crew and achieving mission success. ECLS engineers use environmental monitoring data to monitor and confirm the health of ECLS systems, whereas HHP scientists use the data to manage the health of the human system. Because risks can vary between missions and change over time, environmental monitoring is critical. Crew health risks associated with the environment were reviewed by agency experts with the goal of determining risk-based environmental monitoring needs for future NASA manned missions. Once determined, gaps in environmental health knowledge and technology, required to address those risks, were identified for various types of exploration missions. This agency-wide assessment of environmental health needs will help guide the activities/hardware development efforts to close those gaps and advance the knowledge required to meet NASA manned space exploration objectives. Details of the roadmap development and findings are presented in this paper.

Predicting Hotspots of Human-Elephant Conflict to Inform Mitigation Strategies in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Marino, Jorgelina; Chen, Yong; Tao, Qing; Sullivan, Casey D; Shi, Kun; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

Research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms underlying it and to identifying opportunities for mitigation. In the state of Xishuangbanna, containing China's largest tropical forest, an imbalance between nature conservation and economic development has led to increasing conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), as both elephant numbers and conversion of habitable land to rubber plantations have increased over the last several decades. We analyzed government data on the compensation costs of elephant-caused damage in Xishuangbanna between 2008 and 2012 to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict, in terms of their occurrence, frequency and distribution. More than 18,261 incidents were reported, including episodes involving damage to rubber trees (n = 10,999), damage to crops such as paddy, upland rice, corn, bananas and sugarcane (n = 11,020), property loss (n = 689) and attacks on humans (n = 19). The conflict data reconfirmed the presence of elephants in areas which have lacked records since the late 1990s. Zero Altered Negative Binomial models revealed that the risk of damage to crops and plantations increased with proximity to protected areas, increasing distance from roads, and lower settlement density. The patterns were constant across seasons and types of crop damaged. Damage to rubber trees was essentially incidental as elephants searched for crops to eat. A predictive map of risks revealed hotspots of conflict within and around protected areas, the last refuges for elephants in the region, and along habitat corridors connecting them. Additionally, we analyzed how mitigation efforts can best diminish the risk of conflict while minimizing financial costs and adverse biological impacts. Our analytical approach can be adopted, adjusted and expanded to other areas with historical records of human-wildlife conflict.

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Treesearch

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

2016-12-01

The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations, such as evacuation, and their attitudes toward hazard mitigation efforts. Collectively, these two studies provide a detailed evaluation of important risk communication and risk management issues at both individual and organizational levels and insight about uncertainties that influence the outcome of volcanic crises.

A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

2017-06-01

Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma

PubMed Central

Pinto, Navin R.; Applebaum, Mark A.; Volchenboum, Samuel L.; Matthay, Katherine K.; London, Wendy B.; Ambros, Peter F.; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R.; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D.J.

2015-01-01

Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

Development in reading and math in children from different SES backgrounds: the moderating role of child temperament.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Soden, Brooke; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Lukowski, Sarah L; Schenker, Victoria J; Willcutt, Erik G; Thompson, Lee A; Petrill, Stephen A

2017-05-01

Socioeconomic risks (SES risks) are robust risk factors influencing children's academic development. However, it is unclear whether the effects of SES on academic development operate universally in all children equally or whether they vary differentially in children with particular characteristics. The current study aimed to explore children's temperament as protective or risk factors that potentially moderate the associations between SES risks and academic development. Specifically, latent growth modeling (LGM) was used in two longitudinal datasets with a total of 2236 children to examine how family SES risks and children's temperament interactively predicted the development of reading and math from middle childhood to early adolescence. Results showed that low negative affect, high effortful control, and low surgency mitigated the negative associations between SES risks and both reading and math development in this developmental period. These findings underline the heterogeneous nature of the negative associations between SES risks and academic development and highlight the importance of the interplay between biological and social factors on individual differences in development. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Preface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia (Editor); Hillel, Daniel (Editor)

2015-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on the food production system are raising concern both globally and regionally. The system is already challenged to deliver sufficient and healthy sustenance to all people, and is certain to be even further challenged as world population grows and price shocks loom. The prospect of climate change intensifies these challenges, raising the risk that more frequent and intense extreme weather events threaten the stability of agricultural production in regions around the globe. This two-part set is an important contribution to the ongoing Imperial College Press (ICP) Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. This series aims to provide the know ledge base necessary for understanding and responding to climate change, in both its current form and future manifestations. In these volumes, ·leading agricultural researchers have come together to contribute their expertise on actual and potential climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation efforts. This ongoing series is jointly published by The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), together with ICP. We hope that this fruitful cooperation will continue for many years to come, as it spurs the global effort to define and meet the great food security and climate change challenges of our time.

A Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2006-01-01

The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. The term safely means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences (for example, excess lifetime fatal cancer risk) can be defined. The Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the understanding of health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus the fourth element develops computer codes to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

2018-01-01

We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best available science.

Three decades of managing Tomato spotted wilt virus in peanut in southeastern United States.

PubMed

Srinivasan, R; Abney, M R; Culbreath, A K; Kemerait, R C; Tubbs, R S; Monfort, W S; Pappu, H R

2017-09-15

Southeastern states namely Georgia, Florida, and Alabama produce two-thirds of the peanuts in the United States. Thrips-transmitted Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), which causes spotted wilt disease, has been a major impediment to peanut production for the past three decades. The cultivars grown in the 1980s were extremely susceptible to TSWV. Early yield losses extended to tens of millions of dollars each year (up to 100% loss in many fields). This situation led to the creation of an interdisciplinary team known as "SWAT: Spotted Wilt Action Team". Initial efforts focused on risk mitigation using a combination of chemical and cultural management practices along with a strong investment in breeding programs. Beginning in the mid 1990s, cultivars with field resistance were developed and integrated with cultural and chemical management options. A Risk Mitigation Index (Peanut Rx) was made available to growers to assess risks, and provide options for mitigating risks such as planting field resistant cultivars with in-furrow insecticides, planting after peak thrips incidence, planting in twin rows, and increasing seeding rates. These efforts helped curtail losses due to spotted wilt. The Peanut Rx continues to be refined every year based on new research findings. Breeding efforts, predominantly in Georgia and Florida, continue to develop cultivars with incremental field resistance. The present-day cultivars (third-generation TSWV-resistant cultivars released after 2010) possess substantially greater field resistance than second-generation (cultivars released from 2000 to 2010) and first-generation (cultivars released from 1994 to 2000) TSWV resistant cultivars. Despite increased field resistance, these cultivars are not immune to TSWV and succumb under high thrips and TSWV pressure. Therefore, field resistant cultivars cannot serve as a 'stand-alone' option and have to be integrated with other management options. The mechanism of resistance is also unknown in field resistant cultivars. Recent research in our laboratory evaluated field resistant cultivars against thrips and TSWV. Results revealed that some resistant cultivars suppressed thrips feeding and development, and they accumulated fewer viral copies than susceptible cultivars. Transcriptomes developed with the aid of Next Generation Sequencing revealed differential gene expression patterns following TSWV infection in susceptible than field resistant cultivars. Results revealed that the upregulation of transcripts pertaining to constitutive and induced plant defense proteins in TSWV resistant cultivars was more robust over susceptible cultivars. On the flipside, the long-term effects of using such resistant cultivars on TSWV were assessed by virus population genetics studies. Initial results suggest lack of positive selection pressure on TSWV, and that the sustainable use of resistant cultivars is not threatened. Follow up research is being conducted. Improvements in TSWV management have enhanced sustainability and contributed to increased yields from <2800kg/ha before 1995 to ∼5000kg/ha in 2015. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

The Ramifications of Meddling with Systems Governed by Self-organized Critical Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreras, B. A.; Newman, D. E.; Dobson, I.

2002-12-01

Complex natural, well as man-made, systems often exhibit characteristics similar to those seen in self-organized critical (SOC) systems. The concept of self-organized criticality brings together ideas of self-organization of nonlinear dynamical systems with the often-observed near critical behavior of many natural phenomena. These phenomena exhibit self-similarities over extended ranges of spatial and temporal scales. In those systems, scale lengths may be described by fractal geometry and time scales that lead to 1/f-like power spectra. Natural applications include modeling the motion of tectonics plates, forest fires, magnetospheric dynamics, spin glass systems, and turbulent transport. In man-made systems, applications have included traffic dynamics, power and communications networks, and financial markets among many others. Simple cellular automata models such as the running sandpile model have been very useful in reproducing the complexity and characteristics of these systems. One characteristic property of the SOC systems is that they relax through what we call events. These events can happen over all scales of the system. Examples of these events are: earthquakes in the case of plate tectonic; fires in forest evolution extinction in the co evolution of biological species; and blackouts in power transmission systems. In a time-averaged sense, these systems are subcritical (that is, they lie in an average state that should not trigger any events) and the relaxation events happen intermittently. The time spent in a subcritical state relative to the time of the events varies from one system to another. For instance, the chance of finding a forest on fire is very low with the frequency of fires being on the order of one fire every few years and with many of these fires small and inconsequential. Very large fires happen over time periods of decades or even centuries. However, because of their consequences, these large but infrequent events are the important ones to understand, control and minimize. The main thrust of this research is to understand how and when global events occur in such systems when we apply mitigation techniques and how this impacts risk assessment. As sample systems we investigate both forest fire models and electrical power transmission network models, though the results are probably applicable to a wide variety of systems. It is found, perhaps counter intuitively, that apparently sensible attempts to mitigate failures in such complex systems can have adverse effects and therefore must be approached with care. The success of mitigation efforts in SOC systems is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the system. Unless the mitigation efforts alter the self-organization forces driving the system, the system will in general be pushed toward criticality. To alter those forces with mitigation efforts may be quite difficult because the forces are an intrinsic part of the system. Moreover, in many cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions will increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics. Before discussing this in the more complicated case of power systems, we will illustrate this phenomenon with a forest fire model.

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Revolutionising engineering education in the Middle East region to promote earthquake-disaster mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baytiyeh, Hoda; Naja, Mohamad K.

2014-09-01

Due to the high market demands for professional engineers in the Arab oil-producing countries, the appetite of Middle Eastern students for high-paying jobs and challenging careers in engineering has sharply increased. As a result, engineering programmes are providing opportunities for more students to enrol on engineering courses through lenient admission policies that do not compromise academic standards. This strategy has generated an influx of students who must be carefully educated to enhance their professional knowledge and social capital to assist in future earthquake-disaster risk-reduction efforts. However, the majority of Middle Eastern engineering students are unaware of the valuable acquired engineering skills and knowledge in building the resilience of their communities to earthquake disasters. As the majority of the countries in the Middle East are exposed to seismic hazards and are vulnerable to destructive earthquakes, engineers have become indispensable assets and the first line of defence against earthquake threats. This article highlights the contributions of some of the engineering innovations in advancing technologies and techniques for effective disaster mitigation and it calls for the incorporation of earthquake-disaster-mitigation education into academic engineering programmes in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

2015-04-01

Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity.

PubMed

Bommer, Julian J; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

2015-01-01

Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment-the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question-rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes-which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity-the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

Taking a Concept to Commercialization: Designing Relevant Tests to Address Safety.

PubMed

Ferrara, Lisa A

2016-04-01

Taking a product from concept to commercialization requires careful navigation of the regulatory pathway through a series of steps: (A) moving the idea through proof of concept and beyond; (B) evaluating new technologies that may provide added value to the idea; (C) designing appropriate test strategies and protocols; and (D) evaluating and mitigating risks. Moving an idea from the napkin stage of development to the final product requires a team effort. When finished, the product rarely resembles the original design, but careful steps throughout the product life cycle ensure that the product meets the vision.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Risky Business: The Science and Art of Radiation Risk Communication in the High Risk Context of Space Travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgart, Shona Robin; Shavers, Mark; Huff, Janice; Patel, Zarana; Semones, Edward

2016-01-01

Successfully communicating the complex risks associated with radiation exposure is a difficult undertaking; communicating those risks within the high-risk context of space travel is uniquely challenging. Since the potential risks of space radiation exposure are not expected to be realized until much later in life, it is hard to draw comparisons between other spaceflight risks such as hypoxia and microgravity-induced bone loss. Additionally, unlike other spaceflight risks, there is currently no established mechanism to mitigate the risks of incurred radiation exposure such as carcinogenesis. Despite these challenges, it is the duty of the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at NASA's Johnson Space Center to provide astronauts with the appropriate information to effectively convey the risks associated with exposure to the space radiation environment. To this end, astronauts and their flight surgeons are provided with an annual radiation risk report documenting the astronaut's individual radiation exposures from space travel, medical, and internal radiological procedures throughout the astronaut's career. In an effort to improve this communication and education tool, this paper critically reviews the current report style and explores alternative report styles to define best methods to appropriately communicate risk to astronauts, flight surgeons, and management.

Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

2015-12-01

Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lumpkins, S. B.; Mindock, J. A.

2014-01-01

In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP’s goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer

2014-01-01

In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

Securing Mitigation as Injunctive Relief in Certain Civil Enforcement Settlements (2nd edition)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

To ensure that EPA's environmental enforcement efforts not only correct and deter illegal conduct but maximize the redress of its consequences, this memorandum is intended to strongly encourage case teams to seek mitigation.

Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

2014-01-01

This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

Climate change, conflict and health.

PubMed

Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

2015-10-01

Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

2016-04-01

Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

PubMed

Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

2016-04-01

Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

Assessing knowledge and application of emergency risk communication principles among public health workers in China.

PubMed

Cope, James R; Frost, Melinda; Richun, Li; Xie, Ruiqian

2014-06-01

Since 2003, the Chinese National Health and Family Planning Commission (formerly the Ministry of Health) has implemented changes to more effectively communicate risk during public health emergencies. In spite of ongoing improvements, provincial and sub-provincial leaders face barriers, such as established modes of operation, lack of training, shortage of trained risk communicators, and limited understanding and willingness of recipients to mitigate risks. We assessed the current status of and barriers to risk communication knowledge and practice among public health practitioners in China. We designed the survey questionnaire to capture information related to the risk communication core capacities required by international health regulations and common risk communication principles. Our findings showed that risk communication training has successfully developed an awareness of risk communication principles and the ability to implement those principles in practice in China. Future efforts should focus on areas such as a dedicated risk communication workforce, requirements that public health agencies develop a risk communication plan, and additional training for public health practitioners and their partners. It is critical that the infectious diseases prevention and control law be amended to grant provincial and local public health agencies more autonomy to release information.

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Douglas R.; Polk, James D.

2005-01-01

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off-nominal mission events. 2.) The audience will understand the process by which medical hazards are identified and mitigated before launch. 3.) The audience will understand the roles and responsibilities of all the other flight control positions in participating in the process of reducing hazards and reducing medical risk to an acceptable level.

A growing troubling triad: diabetes, aging, and falls.

PubMed

Crews, Ryan T; Yalla, Sai V; Fleischer, Adam E; Wu, Stephanie C

2013-01-01

There is a significant and troubling link between diabetes (DM) and falls in the elderly. Individuals with DM are prone to fall for reasons such as decreased sensorimotor function, musculoskeletal/neuromuscular deficits, foot and body pain, pharmacological complications, and specialty (offloading) footwear devices. Additionally, there is some concern that DM patients are prone to have more severe problems with falls than non-DM individuals. Fractures, poorer rehabilitation, and increased number of falls are all concerns. Fortunately, efforts to mitigate falls by DM patients show promise. A number of studies have shown that balance, strength, and gait training may be utilized to successfully reduce fall risk in this population. Furthermore, new technologies such as virtual reality proprioceptive training may be able to provide this reduced risk within a safe training environment.

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changesmore » in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.« less

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances, including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire, are growing as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. Here, we explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plantmore » mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Our efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dowla, Farid U.

Subsurface sensors that employ radioisotopes, such 241Am-Be and 137Cs, for reservoir characterization must be tracked for safety and security reasons. Other radiological sources are also widely used in medicine. The radiological source containers, in both applications, are small, mobile and used widely worldwide. The nuclear sources pose radiological dispersal device (RDD) security risks. Security concerns with the industrial use of radionuclide sources is in fact quite high as it is estimated that each year hundreds of sealed sources go missing, either lost or stolen. Risk mitigation efforts include enhanced regulations, source-use guidelines, research and development on electronic tracking of sources.more » This report summarizes the major elements of the requirements and operational concepts of nuclear sources with the goal of developing automated electronic tagging and locating systems.« less

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

DOE PAGES

McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; ...

2017-11-13

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances, including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire, are growing as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. Here, we explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plantmore » mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Our efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.« less

Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission Space Suit and EVA System Architecture Trade Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowie, Jonathan T.; Blanco, Raul A.; Watson, Richard D.; Kelly, Cody; Buffington, Jesse; Sipila, Stephanie A.

2014-01-01

This paper discusses the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) space suit and Extravehicular Activity (EVA) architecture trade study and the current state of the work to mature the requirements and products to the mission concept review level. The mission requirements and the resulting concept of operations will be discussed. A historical context will be presented as to present the similarities and differences from previous NASA missions. That will set the stage for the trade study where all options for both pressure garment and life support were considered. The rationale for the architecture decisions will then be presented. Since the trade study did identity risks, the subsequent tests and analyses that mitigated the risks will be discussed. Lastly, the current state of the effort will be provided.

Earthquake Loss Estimates in Near Real-Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, Max; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Xia, Ye

2006-10-01

The usefulness to rescue teams of nearreal-time loss estimates after major earthquakes is advancing rapidly. The difference in the quality of data available in highly developed compared with developing countries dictates that different approaches be used to maximize mitigation efforts. In developed countries, extensive information from tax and insurance records, together with accurate census figures, furnish detailed data on the fragility of buildings and on the number of people at risk. For example, these data are exploited by the method to estimate losses used in the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUSMH)software program (http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/). However, in developing countries, the population at risk is estimated from inferior data sources and the fragility of the building stock often is derived empirically, using past disastrous earthquakes for calibration [Wyss, 2004].

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-07-29

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

2006 River Corridor Closure Contractor Revegetation and Mitigation Monitoring Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

A. L. Johnson; K. A. Gano

2006-10-03

The purpose of this report is to document the status of revegetation projects and natural resources mitigation efforts that have been conducted for remediated waste sites and other activities associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act cleanup of National Priorities List waste sites at Hanford. One of the objectives of restoration is the revegetation of remediated waste sites to stabilize the soil and restore the land to native vegetation. The report documents the results of revegetation and mitigation monitoring conducted in 2006 and includes 11 revegetation/restoration projects, one revegetation/mitigation project, and 2 bat habitat mitigation projects.

Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, D. A.

2016-12-01

Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

Evaluating the Cost, Safety, and Proliferation Risks of Small Floating Nuclear Reactors.

PubMed

Ford, Michael J; Abdulla, Ahmed; Morgan, M Granger

2017-11-01

It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid-century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks. One such deployment paradigm is the build-own-operate-return model. Because returning small land-based reactors containing spent fuel is infeasible, we evaluate the cost, safety, and proliferation risks of a system in which small modular reactors are manufactured in a factory, and then deployed to a customer nation on a floating platform. This floating small modular reactor would be owned and operated by a single entity and returned unopened to the developed state for refueling. We developed a decision model that allows for a comparison of floating and land-based alternatives considering key International Atomic Energy Agency plant-siting criteria. Abandoning onsite refueling is beneficial, and floating reactors built in a central facility can potentially reduce the risk of cost overruns and the consequences of accidents. However, if the floating platform must be built to military-grade specifications, then the cost would be much higher than a land-based system. The analysis tool presented is flexible, and can assist planners in determining the scope of risks and uncertainty associated with different deployment options. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

2010 River Corridor Closure Contractor Revegetation and Mitigation Monitoring Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. T. Lindsey, A. L. Johnson

2010-09-30

This report documents eh status of revegetation projects and natural resources mitigation efforts conducted for remediated waste sites and other activities associated with CERLA cleanup of National Priorities List waste sites at Hanford. This report contains vegetation monitoring data that were collected in the spring and summer of 2010 from the River Corridor Closure Contract’s revegetation and mitigation areas on the Hanford Site.

Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

2014-01-01

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

PubMed

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Treesearch

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Science as a foundation for discussing, recognizing and mitigating storm-disaster vulnerabilities in mountain and downstream communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kauneckis, D. L.; Cox, D. A.; Albano, C.; Welborn, T.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have historically caused ~80% of the most extreme winter storms and largest floods in California and parts of northwestern Nevada. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme-storm scenario to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to explore and mitigate potential impacts. The scenario was constructed by concatenating two historical AR sequences and quantified by simulating them using a regional-weather model nested within global weather fields, resulting in a climatologically plausible 23-day storm sequence. The ARkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six meetings with over 300 participants from local agencies, first-responders and local communities, each meeting having a different geographic or sectoral focus. These stakeholder meetings and an 18-question survey identified a wide range of social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs to prepare and mitigate consequenses, and proactive measures to minimize impacts. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human environments by impeding emergency response efforts. Natural resource impacts of greatest concern include flooding, impacts to water quality, spread and establishment of invasive species, and interactions with other disturbance types (e.g., fire, landslides). Science needs include improved monitoring and models to facilitate better prediction and response, real-time and forecast inundation mapping to understand flood risks, and vulnerability assessments related to geomorphic hazards and water quality impacts. Results from this effort highlight several opportunities for increasing the resilience of communities and the environment to extreme storm events. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a "tabletop" emergency-response exercise with over 120 participants in March 2014, as well as reports back to the community including specific recommendations for increasing preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience to extreme winter storm events.

Framework and methodology for supply chain lifecycle analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamlet, Jason; Eames, Brandon K.; Kao, Gio K.

The various technologies presented herein relate to pertaining to identifying and mitigating risks and attacks on a supply chain. A computer-implemented representation of a supply chain is generated comprising nodes (locations) and edges (objects, information). Risk to attack and different attack vectors can be defined for the various nodes and edges, and further, based upon the risks and attacks, (difficulty, consequence) pairs can be determined. One or more mitigations can be generated to increase a difficulty of attack and/or reduce consequence of an attack. The one or more mitigations can be constrained, e.g., by cost, time, etc., to facilitate determinationmore » of how feasible a respective mitigation is to implement with regard to finances available, duration to implement, etc. A context-free grammar can be utilized to identify one or more attacks in the supply chain. Further, the risks can undergo a ranking to enable mitigation priority to be determined.« less

Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2008-12-01

The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Surgery: Quality Improvement Imperatives and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Goldman, Julie L.

2014-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is more common in surgical candidates than in the general population and may increase susceptibility to perioperative complications that range from transient desaturation to catastrophic injuries. Understanding the potential impact of OSA on patients’ surgical risk profile is of particular interest to otolaryngologists, who routinely perform airway procedures—including surgical procedures for treatment of OSA. Whereas the effects of OSA on long-term health outcomes are well documented, the relationship between OSA and surgical risk is not collinear, and clear consensus on the nature of the association is lacking. Better guidelines for optimization of pain control, perioperative monitoring, and surgical decision making are potential areas for quality improvement efforts. Many interventions have been suggested to mitigate the risk of adverse events in surgical patients with OSA, but wide variations in clinical practice remain. We review the current literature, emphasizing recent progress in understanding the complex pathophysiologic interactions noted in OSA patients undergoing surgery and outlining potential strategies to decrease perioperative risks. PMID:25013745

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

PubMed

Tomasek, Bradley J; Williams, Martin M; Davis, Adam S

2017-01-01

As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Francesca M.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bush, Susan E.; Duren, Riley M.; Miller, Charles E.; Lai, Chun-Ta; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Carranza, Valerie; Randerson, James T.

2016-09-01

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is growing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for CH4 mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban CH4 emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability to quantify this increase. We also lack systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from four North American cities to demonstrate that CH4 emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitigation approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban CH4 emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric CH4 levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives and should be deployed in cities globally. We suggest that metropolitan scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.

Review article: A review and critical analysis of the efforts towards urban flood risk management in the Lagos region of Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkwunonwo, U. C.; Whitworth, M.; Baily, B.

2016-02-01

Urban flooding has been and will continue to be a significant problem for many cities across the developed and developing world. Crucial to the amelioration of the effects of these floods is the need to formulate a sound flood management policy, which is driven by knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of impacts of these floods. Within the area of flood research, attempts are being made to gain a better understanding of the causes, impacts, and pattern of urban flooding. According to the United Nations office for disaster reduction (UNISDR), flood risk is conceptualized on the basis of three integral components which are frequently adopted during flood damage estimation. These components are: probability of flood hazard, the level of exposure, and vulnerabilities of elements at risk. Reducing the severity of each of these components is the objective of flood risk management under the UNISDR guideline and idea of "living with floods". On the basis of this framework, the present research reviews flood risk within the Lagos area of Nigeria over the period 1968-2012. During this period, floods have caused harm to millions of people physically, emotionally, and economically. Arguably over this period the efforts of stakeholders to address the challenges appear to have been limited by, amongst other things, a lack of reliable data, a lack of awareness amongst the population affected, and a lack of knowledge of flood risk mitigation. It is the aim of this research to assess the current understanding of flood risk and management in Lagos and to offer recommendations towards future guidance.

A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, David R.; McKinney, Daene C.; Lala, Jonathan M.; Byers, Alton C.; Watson, C. Scott

2016-08-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.

Mitigation of EMU Cut Glove Hazard from Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impacts on ISS Handrails

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, Shannon; Christiansen, Eric L.; Davis, Bruce A.; Ordonez, Erick

2009-01-01

Recent cut damages sustained on crewmember gloves during extravehicular activity (ISS) onboard the International Space Station (ISS) have been caused by contact with sharp edges or a pinch point according to analysis of the damages. One potential source are protruding sharp edged crater lips from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on metallic handrails along EVA translation paths. A number of hypervelocity impact tests were performed on ISS handrails, and found that mm-sized projectiles were capable of inducing crater lip heights two orders of magnitude above the minimum value for glove abrasion concerns. Two techniques were evaluated for mitigating the cut glove hazard of MMOD impacts on ISS handrails: flexible overwraps which act to limit contact between crewmember gloves and impact sites, and; alternate materials which form less hazardous impact crater profiles. In parallel with redesign efforts to increase the cut resilience of EMU gloves, the modifications to ISS handrails evaluated in this study provide the means to significantly reduce cut glove risk from MMOD impact craters

REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballard, RIchard O.

2006-01-01

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the Fundamental Root Causes that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTF). This paper will discuss the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2004-01-01

AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Self-Reliability and Motivation in a Nuclear Security Culture Enhancement Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crawford, Cary E.; de Boer, Gloria; De Castro, Kara

2010-10-01

The threat of nuclear terrorism has become a global concern. Many countries continue to make efforts to strengthen nuclear security by enhancing systems of nuclear material protection, control, and accounting (MPC&A). Though MPC&A systems can significantly upgrade nuclear security, they do not eliminate the “human factor.” Gen. Eugene Habiger, a former “Assistant Secretary for Safeguards and Security” at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) nuclear-weapons complex and a former commander of U.S. strategic nuclear forces, has observed that “good security is 20% equipment and 80% people.”1 Although eliminating the “human factor” is not possible, accounting for and mitigating the riskmore » of the insider threat is an essential element in establishing an effective nuclear security culture. This paper will consider the organizational role in mitigating the risk associated with the malicious insider through monitoring and enhancing human reliability and motivation as well as enhancing the nuclear security culture.« less

Self-Reliability and Motivation in a Nuclear Security Culture Enhancement Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers,E.; deBoer,G.; Crawford, C.

2009-10-19

The threat of nuclear terrorism has become a global concern. Many countries continue to make efforts to strengthen nuclear security by enhancing systems of nuclear material protection, control, and accounting (MPC&A). Though MPC&A systems can significantly upgrade nuclear security, they do not eliminate the "human factor." Gen. Eugene Habiger, a former "Assistant Secretary for Safeguards and Security" at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) nuclear-weapons complex and a former commander of U.S. strategic nuclear forces, has observed that "good security is 20% equipment and 80% people." Although eliminating the "human factor" is not possible, accounting for and mitigating the riskmore » of the insider threat is an essential element in establishing an effective nuclear security culture. This paper will consider the organizational role in mitigating the risk associated with the malicious insider through monitoring and enhancing human reliability and motivation as well as enhancing the nuclear security culture.« less

Operational challenges to community participation in post-disaster damage assessments: observations from Fiji.

PubMed

Méheux, Kirstie; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Lloyd, Kate

2010-10-01

Community participation is becoming increasingly popular within the field of disaster management. International disaster policies, frameworks and charters embrace the notion that communities should play an active role in initiatives to identify vulnerabilities and risks and to mitigate those dangers, and, in the event of a disaster, that they should play a proactive part in response and recovery (see, for example, UNISDR, 1994; The Sphere Project, 2004; United Nations, 2005). A number of studies have investigated the participation of communities in disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts (see, for instance, Scott-Villiers, 2000; Andharia, 2002; Godschalk, Brody and Burby, 2003), There is, however, limited reflection on the challenges to ensuring participation in the operational context of disaster response. This paper draws on a study of the policy and practice of participatory damage assessment in Fiji to identify and discuss the barriers to formal implementation of community participation in a post-disaster context. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

2017-12-01

Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high uncertainty and limited resources. The most crucial steps are enforcing building codes and public education on earthquake risk reduction. Requiring moderate investments that increases building costs by 5-10% can substantially improve safety and is a cost effective strategy. Over time, natural building turnover will make communities more resilient.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans—An Empirical Analysis of European Cities

PubMed Central

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future. PMID:26317420

Human Factors for More Usable and Safer Health Information Technology: Where Are We Now and Where do We Go from Here?

PubMed

Kushniruk, A; Nohr, C; Borycki, E

2016-11-10

A wide range of human factors approaches have been developed and adapted to healthcare for detecting and mitigating negative unexpected consequences associated with technology in healthcare (i.e. technology-induced errors). However, greater knowledge and wider dissemination of human factors methods is needed to ensure more usable and safer health information technology (IT) systems. This paper reports on work done by the IMIA Human Factors Working Group and discusses some successful approaches that have been applied in using human factors to mitigate negative unintended consequences of health IT. The paper addresses challenges in bringing human factors approaches into mainstream health IT development. A framework for bringing human factors into the improvement of health IT is described that involves a multi-layered systematic approach to detecting technology-induced errors at all stages of a IT system development life cycle (SDLC). Such an approach has been shown to be needed and can lead to reduced risks associated with the release of health IT systems into live use with mitigation of risks of negative unintended consequences. Negative unintended consequences of the introduction of IT into healthcare (i.e. potential for technology-induced errors) continue to be reported. It is concluded that methods and approaches from the human factors and usability engineering literatures need to be more widely applied, both in the vendor community and in local and regional hospital and healthcare settings. This will require greater efforts at dissemination and knowledge translation, as well as greater interaction between the academic and vendor communities.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans-An Empirical Analysis of European Cities.

PubMed

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes; Olazabal, Marta; Heidrich, Oliver

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Landscape features influence postrelease predation on endangered black-footed ferrets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poessel, S.A.; Breck, S.W.; Biggins, D.E.; Livieri, T.M.; Crooks, K.R.; Angeloni, L.

2011-01-01

Predation can be a critical factor influencing recovery of endangered species. In most recovery efforts lethal and nonlethal influences of predators are not sufficiently understood to allow prediction of predation risk, despite its importance. We investigated whether landscape features could be used to model predation risk from coyotes (Canis latrans) and great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) on the endangered black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes). We used location data of reintroduced ferrets from 3 sites in South Dakota to determine whether exposure to landscape features typically associated with predators affected survival of ferrets, and whether ferrets considered predation risk when choosing habitat near perches potentially used by owls or near linear features predicted to be used by coyotes. Exposure to areas near likely owl perches reduced ferret survival, but landscape features potentially associated with coyote movements had no appreciable effect on survival. Ferrets were located within 90 m of perches more than expected in 2 study sites that also had higher ferret mortality due to owl predation. Densities of potential coyote travel routes near ferret locations were no different than expected in all 3 sites. Repatriated ferrets might have selected resources based on factors other than predator avoidance. Considering an easily quantified landscape feature (i.e., owl perches) can enhance success of reintroduction efforts for ferrets. Nonetheless, development of predictive models of predation risk and management strategies to mitigate that risk is not necessarily straightforward for more generalist predators such as coyotes. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

Can rice (Oryza sativa) mitigate pesticides and nutrients in agricultural runoff?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phytoremediation of nutrients and pesticides in runoff is a growing conservation effort, particularly in agriculturally intensive areas such as the lower Mississippi River Valley. In the current study, rice (Oryza sativa) was examined for its mitigation capacity of nitrogen, phosphorus, diazinon, a...

Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program: Cost-Effectiveness Tables Development and Methodology

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

This document presents summary and detailed findings from a research effort to develop estimates of the cost-effectiveness of a range of project types funded under the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program. In this study, c...

Impact of Risk Perception on Risk Communication and Community Resilience Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, T. G.; Thompson, C. M.

2014-12-01

Past studies have demonstrated there is a relationship between risk perception, risk tolerance and mitigation planning. When people experience high-risk perception, their risk tolerance is typically lowered causing them to become more likely to support the implementation of mitigation policies including those that are either cost intensive or politically controversial. Understanding stakeholder risk perception could therefore provide information about the likelihood of implementation of various mitigation strategies. Varied risk communication methods are needed to accurately represent community risk so as to better inform decision-making. In response to this need, this research examines the effect of risk perception on community resilience through a case study of Fernan Lake, ID. Researchers conducted a survey of Fernan Lake residents to determine their risk perception of the impact of blue-green algae blooms on community resilience. Survey questions were developed based on traditional risk perception factors like vested interest, social trust, knowledge, possible benefits or losses, relevance to individual and potential for control. The results were used to determine residents' risk perception of the impact of blue green algae blooms on Socio-Ecological System resource availability and future development and growth potential. Focus groups were then conducted to validate the survey results. Research results demonstrate that residents are concerned about the impacts of blue-green algae blooms, but the level of interest in acting on those concerns and their willingness to consider more aggressive mitigation strategies varies across the study area. This research demonstrates the need for varied risk communication approaches, depending upon community mitigation goals.

40 CFR 761.120 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... with the particular spill. These factors may mitigate expected exposures and risks or make cleanup to... spill situations in which site-specific risk factors may warrant additional cleanup to more stringent... numerical decontamination levels is clearly unwarranted because of risk-mitigating factors, that compliance...

40 CFR 761.120 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... with the particular spill. These factors may mitigate expected exposures and risks or make cleanup to... spill situations in which site-specific risk factors may warrant additional cleanup to more stringent... numerical decontamination levels is clearly unwarranted because of risk-mitigating factors, that compliance...

To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

2012-04-01

With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

A treerific volunteer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, N.D.

This article discusses efforts made by the US Department of Agriculture to mitigate the effects of global climate change by planting trees. In particular, it lauds the volunteer efforts of Jeanne Yeutter, the wife of the Secretary of Agriculture.

Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Pinto, Navin R; Applebaum, Mark A; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Matthay, Katherine K; London, Wendy B; Ambros, Peter F; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D J; Cohn, Susan L

2015-09-20

Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Factors Influencing Running-Related Musculoskeletal Injury Risk Among U.S. Military Recruits.

PubMed

Molloy, Joseph M

2016-06-01

Running-related musculoskeletal injuries among U.S. military recruits negatively impact military readiness. Low aerobic fitness, prior injury, and weekly running distance are known risk factors. Physical fitness screening and remedial physical training (or discharging the most poorly fit recruits) before entry-level military training have tended to reduce injury rates while decreasing attrition, training, and medical costs. Incorporating anaerobic running sessions into training programs can offset decreased weekly running distance and decrease injury risk. Varying lower extremity loading patterns, stride length or cadence manipulation, and hip stability/strengthening programming may further decrease injury risk. No footstrike pattern is ideal for all runners; transitioning to forefoot striking may reduce risk for hip, knee, or tibial injuries, but increase risk for calf, Achilles, foot or ankle injuries. Minimal evidence associates running surfaces with injury risk. Footwear interventions should focus on proper fit and comfort; the evidence does not support running shoe prescription per foot type to reduce injury risk among recruits. Primary injury mitigation efforts should focus on physical fitness screening, remedial physical training (or discharge for unfit recruits), and continued inclusion of anaerobic running sessions to offset decreased weekly running distance. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Afghan National Police Training Program: Lessons Learned During the Transition of Contract Administration

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-15

coordinated transition requirements; • identifying and completing inherently governmental tasks; • conducting risk assessments and developing risk ...conducted risk assessments and developed risk mitigation strategies, defined metrics, and established a council of senior officials to oversee and... assessment to identify sources of risk that may affect the transition, and mitigation strategies to address those risks , which could help minimize the

The other side of the coin: urban heat islands as shields from extreme cold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Bou-Zeid, E.

2017-12-01

Extensive studies focusing on urban heat islands (UHIs) during hot periods create a perception that UHIs are invariably hazardous to human health and the sustainability of cities. Consequently, cities have invested substantial resources to try to mitigate UHIs. These urban policies can have serious repercussions since the health risks associated with cold weather are in fact higher than for heat episodes, yet wintertime UHIs have hardly been explored. We combine ground observations from 12 U.S. cities and high-resolution simulations to show that UHIs not only warm urban areas in the winter, but also further intensify during cold waves by up to 1.32 ± 0.78 oC (mean ± standard deviation) at night. Urban heat islands serve as shelters against extreme colds and provide invaluable benefits of reducing health risks and heating demand. More importantly, our simulations indicate that standard UHI mitigation measures such as green or cool roofs reduce these cold time amenities to different extents. Cities, particularly in cool and cold temperate climates, should hence revisit policies and efforts that are only desgined for hot periods. A paradigm shift is urgently needed to give an equal weight to the wintertime benefits of UHIs in the sustainability and resilience blueprints of cities.

Introduction to Software Product Line Adoption

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

plans • improvement suggestions • risks and mitigation strategies • progress reports • risks and mitigation strategies • adoption plan • funding ... model • organization chart • product line concept of operations (CONOPS) • marketing plan • product proposals • acquisition strategy • organization risk

Contraceptive Provision to Adolescent Females Prescribed Teratogenic Medications.

PubMed

Stancil, Stephani L; Miller, Melissa; Briggs, Holley; Lynch, Daryl; Goggin, Kathy; Kearns, Gregory

2016-01-01

Rates of adult women receiving contraceptive provision when simultaneously prescribed a known teratogen are alarmingly low. The prevalence of this behavior among pediatric providers and their adolescent patients is unknown. The objective of this study was to describe pediatric provider behaviors for prescribing teratogens concurrently with counseling, referral, and/or prescribing of contraception (collectively called contraceptive provision) in the adolescent population. A retrospective review was conducted examining visits in 2008-2012 by adolescents aged 14 to 25 years in which a known teratogen (US Food and Drug Administration pregnancy risk category D or X) was prescribed. The electronic medical records were queried for demographic information, evidence of contraceptive provision, and menstrual and sexual histories. The data were analyzed using standard statistical methods. Within 4172 clinic visits, 1694 females received 4506 prescriptions for teratogenic medications. The most commonly prescribed teratogens were topiramate, methotrexate, diazepam, isotretinoin, and enalapril. The subspecialties prescribing teratogens most frequently were neurology, hematology-oncology, and dermatology. Overall, contraceptive provision was documented in 28.6% of the visits. Whites versus nonwhites and older versus younger girls were more likely to receive contraceptive provision. The presence of a federal risk mitigation system for the teratogen also increased the likelihood of contraceptive provision. Our data demonstrate female adolescents prescribed teratogens receive inadequate contraception provision, which could increase their risk for negative pregnancy outcomes. Although the presence of a federal risk mitigation system appears to improve contraceptive provision, these systems are costly and, in some instances, difficult to implement. Efforts to improve provider practices are needed. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Utilizing information technology to mitigate the handoff risks caused by resident work hour restrictions.

PubMed

Bernstein, Joseph; MacCourt, Duncan C; Jacob, Dan M; Mehta, Samir

2010-10-01

Resident duty hours have been restricted to 80 per week, a limitation thought to increase patient safety by allowing adequate sleep. Yet decreasing work hours increases the number of patient exchanges (so-called "handoff") at the end of shifts. WHERE ARE WE NOW?: A greater frequency of handoff leads to an increased risk of physician error. Information technology can be used to minimize that risk. WHERE DO WE NEED TO GO?: A computer-based expert system can alleviate the problems of data omissions and data overload and minimize asynchrony and asymmetry. A smart system can further prompt departing physicians for information that improves their understanding of the patient's condition. Likewise, such a system can take full advantage of multimedia; generate a study record for self-improvement; and strengthen the interaction between specialists jointly managing patients. HOW DO WE GET THERE?: There are impediments to implementation, notably requirements of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act; medical-legal ramifications, and computer programming costs. Nonetheless, the use of smart systems, not to supplant physicians' rational facilities but to supplement them, promises to mitigate the risks of frequent patient handoff and advance patient care. Thus, a concerted effort to promote such smart systems on the part of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (the source of the duty hour restrictions) and the Association of American Medical Colleges (representing medical schools and teaching hospitals) may be effective. We propose that these organizations host a contest for the best smart handoff systems and vigorously promote the winners.

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

Potential Vaccines and Post-Exposure Treatments for Filovirus Infections

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Brian M.; Trefry, John C.; Biggins, Julia E.; Hensley, Lisa E.; Honko, Anna N.; Smith, Darci R.; Olinger, Gene G.

2012-01-01

Viruses of the family Filoviridae represent significant health risks as emerging infectious diseases as well as potentially engineered biothreats. While many research efforts have been published offering possibilities toward the mitigation of filoviral infection, there remain no sanctioned therapeutic or vaccine strategies. Current progress in the development of filovirus therapeutics and vaccines is outlined herein with respect to their current level of testing, evaluation, and proximity toward human implementation, specifically with regard to human clinical trials, nonhuman primate studies, small animal studies, and in vitro development. Contemporary methods of supportive care and previous treatment approaches for human patients are also discussed. PMID:23170176

Goal Based Testing: A Risk Informed Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everline, Chester; Smith, Clayton; Distefano, Sal; Goldin, Natalie

2014-01-01

A process for life demonstration testing is developed, which can reduce the number of resources required by conventional sampling theory while still maintaining the same degree of rigor and confidence level. This process incorporates state-of-the-art probabilistic thinking and is consistent with existing NASA guidance documentation. This view of life testing changes the paradigm of testing a system for many hours to show confidence that a system will last for the required number of years to one that focuses efforts and resources on exploring how the system can fail at end-of-life and building confidence that the failure mechanisms are understood and well mitigated.

The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation

PubMed Central

Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Levin, Simon

2015-01-01

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost—in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies. PMID:26858777

The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation.

PubMed

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Levin, Simon

2015-11-01

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost-in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies.

SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harry, T; University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; Manger, R

Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this workmore » was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.« less

Limitations in predicting the space radiation health risk for exploration astronauts.

PubMed

Chancellor, Jeffery C; Blue, Rebecca S; Cengel, Keith A; Auñón-Chancellor, Serena M; Rubins, Kathleen H; Katzgraber, Helmut G; Kennedy, Ann R

2018-01-01

Despite years of research, understanding of the space radiation environment and the risk it poses to long-duration astronauts remains limited. There is a disparity between research results and observed empirical effects seen in human astronaut crews, likely due to the numerous factors that limit terrestrial simulation of the complex space environment and extrapolation of human clinical consequences from varied animal models. Given the intended future of human spaceflight, with efforts now to rapidly expand capabilities for human missions to the moon and Mars, there is a pressing need to improve upon the understanding of the space radiation risk, predict likely clinical outcomes of interplanetary radiation exposure, and develop appropriate and effective mitigation strategies for future missions. To achieve this goal, the space radiation and aerospace community must recognize the historical limitations of radiation research and how such limitations could be addressed in future research endeavors. We have sought to highlight the numerous factors that limit understanding of the risk of space radiation for human crews and to identify ways in which these limitations could be addressed for improved understanding and appropriate risk posture regarding future human spaceflight.

[Investigation into the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in managing public health emergencies in China].

PubMed

Hu, Guo-qing; Rao, Ke-qin; Sun, Zhen-qiu

2007-08-01

To investigate the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in public health emergency management in China. Four provinces were randomly selected using stratified sampling. All the municipalities under these four provinces were assessed using the 3rd subscale (Risk Identification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation) of Preparedness and Response Capacity Questionnaire for Public Health Emergencies Used in Provincial or Municipal Governments, which was developed by the Center for Health Statistics and Information, Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. Sixty of 66 questionnaires (90.91%) were collected. Among 60 investigated municipalities, 35 (58%) identified the potential public health emergencies, 17 (28%) assessed the risks for the identified emergencies, and 5 (8%) conducted risk assessments for the locally accident-prone factories, mines, corporations, and big establishments, 6 (10%) identified the priorities in public health emergency management based on risk assessment, 6 (10%) developed special prevention strategies for main public health emergencies, 3 (5%) assessed the vulnerability of local residents to public health emergencies, and 34 (57%) assessed or were assessing the preparedness and response capacity for public health emergencies in the past 2 years. The mean of standard total score for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation was 24.05 (95% CI: 18.32, 29.77). Risk identification, assessment, and mitigation still require further improvement in China, and both the central and local authorities should implement more effective and efficient measures.

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

Environmentally-driven Materials Obsolescence: Material Replacements and Lessons Learned from NASA's Space Shuttle Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meinhold, Anne

2013-01-01

The Space Shuttle Program was terminated in 2011 with the last flight of the Shuttle Endeavour. During the 30 years of its operating history, the number of domestic and international environmental regulations increased rapidly and resulted in materials obsolescence risks to the program. Initial replacement efforts focused on ozone depleting substances. As pressure from environmental regulations increased, Shuttle worked on the replacement of heavy metals. volatile organic compounds and hazardous air pollutants. Near the end of the program. Shuttle identified potential material obsolescence driven by international regulations and the potential for suppliers to reformulate materials. During the Shuttle Program a team focused on environmentally-driven materials obsolescence worked to identify and mitigate these risks. Lessons learned from the Shuttle experience can be applied to new NASA Programs as well as other high reliability applications.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-04-01

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price could substantially affect other Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in agriculture for agricultural production and food security using an integrated modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between climate change mitigation and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 C, results indicate a food calorie loss in 2050 of up to 330 kcal per capita in food insecure countries. If only developed countries participated in the mitigation effort, the calorie loss would be 40 kcal per capita, however the climate target would not be achieved. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land using a comprehensive set of management options, would allow achieving a 1.5 C target while reducing the implied calorie loss by up to 70% and storing up to 3.5 GtCO2 in soils. Hence, the promotion of so called "win-win" mitigation options i.e. soil carbon sequestration, and ensuring successful mitigation of land use change emissions are crucial to stabilize the climate without deteriorating food security.

77 FR 39699 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

... Budget (OMB). Before submitting the ICR, titled: ``Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation'' and identified by EPA..., soil fumigant registrants, state and tribal lead agencies, and EPA. Title: Soil Fumigant Risk... ensure that risk mitigation measures necessary for reregistration eligibility for certain soil fumigant...

Role of drugs in the prevention and amelioration of radiation induced toxic effects.

PubMed

Patyar, Rakesh Raman; Patyar, Sazal

2018-01-15

As the use of radiation technology for nuclear warfare or for the benefits of mankind (e.g. in radiotherapy or radio-diagnosis) is increasing tremendously, the risk of associated side effects is becoming a cause of concern. These effects, ranging from nausea/vomiting to death, may result from accidental or deliberate exposure and begin in seconds. Through this review paper, efforts have been done to critically review different compounds which have been investigated as radioprotectors and radiation mitigators. Radioprotectors are compounds which are administered just before or at the time of irradiation so as to minimize the radiation induced damage to normal tissues. And radiation mitigators are the compounds which can even minimize or ameliorate post irradiaion-toxicity provided they are administered before the onset of toxic symptoms. A variety of agents have been investigated for their preventive and ameliorative potential against radiation induced toxic effects. This review article has focused on various aspects of the promising representative agents belonging to different classes of radioprotectors and mitigators. Many compounds have shown promising results, but till date only amifostine and palifermin are clinically approved by FDA. To fill this void in pharmacological armamentarium, focus should be shifted towards novel approaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

RadWorks Storm Shelter Design for Solar Particle Event Shielding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew A.; Cerro, Jeffrey; Clowdsley, Martha

2013-01-01

In order to enable long-duration human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the risks associated with exposure of astronaut crews to space radiation must be mitigated with practical and affordable solutions. The space radiation environment beyond the magnetosphere is primarily a combination of two types of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). While mitigating GCR exposure remains an open issue, reducing astronaut exposure to SPEs is achievable through material shielding because they are made up primarily of medium-energy protons. In order to ensure astronaut safety for long durations beyond low-Earth orbit, SPE radiation exposure must be mitigated. However, the increasingly demanding spacecraft propulsive performance for these ambitious missions requires minimal mass and volume radiation shielding solutions which leverage available multi-functional habitat structures and logistics as much as possible. This paper describes the efforts of NASA's RadWorks Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project to design minimal mass SPE radiation shelter concepts leveraging available resources. Discussion items include a description of the shelter trade space, the prioritization process used to identify the four primary shelter concepts chosen for maturation, a summary of each concept's design features, a description of the radiation analysis process, and an assessment of the parasitic mass of each concept.

Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

PubMed

Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

2014-05-01

Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Solar PV O&M Standards and Best Practices – Existing Gaps and Improvement Efforts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klise, Geoffrey Taylor; Balfour, John R.; Keating, T. J.

2014-11-01

As greater numbers of photovoltaic (PV) systems are being installed, operations & maintenance (O&M) activities will need to be performed to ensure the PV system is operating as designed over its useful lifetime. To mitigate risks to PV system availability and performance, standardized procedures for O&M activities are needed to ensure high reliability and long-term system bankability. Efforts are just getting underway to address the need for standard O&M procedures as PV gains a larger share of U.S. generation capacity. Due to the existing landscape of how and where PV is installed, including distributed generation from small and medium PVmore » systems, as well as large, centralized utility-scale PV, O&M activities will require different levels of expertise and reporting, making standards even more important. This report summarizes recent efforts made by solar industry stakeholders to identify the existing standards and best practices applied to solar PV O&M activities, and determine the gaps that have yet to be, or are currently being addressed by industry.« less

Solar PV O&M Standards and Best Practices - Existing Gaps and Improvement Efforts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klise, Geoffrey Taylor; Balfour, John R.; Keating, T. J.

2014-11-01

As greater numbers of photovoltaic (PV) systems are being installed, operations & maintenance (O&M) activities will need to be performed to ensure the PV system is operating as designed over its useful lifetime. To mitigate risks to PV system availability and performance, standardized procedures for O&M activities are needed to ensure high reliability and long-term system bankability. Efforts are just getting underway to address the need for standard O&M procedures as PV gains a larger share of U.S. generation capacity. Due to the existing landscape of how and where PV is installed, including distributed generation from small and medium PVmore » systems, as well as large, centralized utility-scale PV, O&M activities will require different levels of expertise and reporting, making standards even more important. This report summarizes recent efforts made by solar industry stakeholders to identify the existing standards and best practices applied to solar PV O&M activities, and determine the gaps that have yet to be, or are currently being addressed by industry.« less

Engaging teachers, interpreters and emergency management educators in disaster preparedness and EarthScope science through joint professional development workshops (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt-Sitaula, B. A.; Lillie, R. J.; Butler, R. F.; Hunter, N.; Magura, B.; Groom, R.; Hedeen, C. D.; Johnson, J. A.; Ault, C.; Olds, S. E.

2013-12-01

The same geological forces that form the spectacular beaches and headlands of the Pacific Northwest also threaten lives and infrastructure with earthquakes and tsunamis. A new project called the Cascadia EarthScope, Earthquake, and Tsunami Education Program (CEETEP), is helping to mitigate the effects of these potential disasters through collaboration building and professional development for K-12 teachers, park and museum interpreters, and emergency management outreach educators in communities along the Oregon and Washington coast. Tens of thousands of Oregon and Washington residents live within severe earthquake-shaking and tsunami-inundation zones, and millions of tourists visit state and federal parks in these same areas each year. Teachers in the K-12 school systems convey some basics about geological hazards to their students, and park rangers and museum educators likewise engage visitors at their sites. Emergency management educators make regular presentations to local residents about disaster preparedness. CEETEP is strengthening these efforts by providing community-based workshops that bring together all of these professionals to review the basic science of earthquakes and tsunamis, learn about EarthScope and other research efforts that monitor the dynamic Earth in the region, and develop ways to collectively engage students and the general public on the mitigation of coastal geologic hazards. As part of a nationwide effort, the NSF EarthScope Program has been deploying hundreds of seismic, GPS, and other geophysical instruments to measure movement of the Earth's crust and detect earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. These instruments provide detail for ongoing research showing that coastal regions are storing energy that will be released in the next great Cascadia earthquake, with the resulting tsunami arriving onshore in 30 minutes or less. CEETEP is helping to convey these cutting-edge findings to coastal educators and fulfill EarthScope's intended broader impact of contributing 'to the mitigation of risks from geological hazards ... and the public's understanding of the dynamic Earth.' Preliminary results from CEETEP's 2013 August and October workshops will be presented.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP recent outcomes, including the real time monitoring as well as the protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts in Puerto Rico.

IDENTIFICATION OF CANDIDATE HOUSES FOR NORTH FLORIDA PORTION OF THE FLORIDA RADON MITIGATION PROJECT

EPA Science Inventory

The report gives results of a study to locate candidate houses for a proposed radon mitigation research and demonstration project in North Florida. he effort involved: 1) identification of target geographical areas, 2) radon monitoring in identified clusters, and 3) house charact...

50 CFR 18.118 - What are the mitigation, monitoring, and reporting requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... monitoring and research efforts will employ rigorous study designs and sampling protocols in order to provide... mitigation measures for offshore seismic surveys. Any offshore exploration activity expected to include the... 1 µPa. (ii) Ramp-up procedures. For all seismic surveys, including airgun testing, use the following...

50 CFR 18.118 - What are the mitigation, monitoring, and reporting requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... monitoring and research efforts will employ rigorous study designs and sampling protocols in order to provide... mitigation measures for offshore seismic surveys. Any offshore exploration activity expected to include the... 1 µPa. (ii) Ramp-up procedures. For all seismic surveys, including airgun testing, use the following...

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

DOE PAGES

Hopkins, Francesca M.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bush, Susan E.; ...

2016-09-10

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is grow-ing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for CH 4 mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban CH 4 emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability to quantify this increase. We also lackmore » systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from four North American cities to demonstrate that CH4 emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitiga- tion approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban CH 4 emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric CH 4 levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives and should be deployed in cities globally. In conclusion, we suggest that metropolitan scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.« less

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopkins, Francesca M.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bush, Susan E.

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is grow-ing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for CH 4 mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban CH 4 emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability to quantify this increase. We also lackmore » systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from four North American cities to demonstrate that CH4 emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitiga- tion approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban CH 4 emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric CH 4 levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives and should be deployed in cities globally. In conclusion, we suggest that metropolitan scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.« less

Significant differences in pediatric psychotropic side effects: Implications for school performance.

PubMed

Kubiszyn, Thomas; Mire, Sarah; Dutt, Sonia; Papathopoulos, Katina; Burridge, Andrea Backsheider

2012-03-01

Some side effects (SEs) of increasingly prescribed psychotropic medications can impact student performance in school. SE risk varies, even among drugs from the same class (e.g., antidepressants). Knowing which SEs occur significantly more often than others may enable school psychologists to enhance collaborative risk-benefit analysis, medication monitoring, data-based decision-making, and inform mitigation efforts. SE data from Full Prescribing Information (PI) on the FDA website for ADHD drugs, atypical antipsychotics, and antidepressants with pediatric indications were analyzed. Risk ratios (RR) are reported for each drug within a category compared with placebo. RR tables and graphs inform the reader about SE incidence differences for each drug and provide clear evidence of the wide variability in SE incidence in the FDA data. Breslow-Day and Cochran Mantel-Haenszel methods were used to test for drug-placebo SE differences and to test for significance across drugs within each category based on odds ratios (ORs). Significant drug-placebo differences were found for each drug compared with placebo, when odds were pooled across all drugs in a category compared with placebo, and between some drugs within categories. Unexpectedly, many large RR differences did not reach significance. Potential explanations are offered, including limitations of the FDA data sets and statistical and methodological issues. Future research directions are offered. The potential impact of certain SEs on school performance, mitigation strategies, and the potential role of the school psychologist is discussed, with consideration for ethical and legal limitations. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Epidemiology of osteoarthritis: state of the evidence

PubMed Central

Allen, Kelli D.; Golightly, Yvonne M.

2015-01-01

Purpose of review This review focuses on recent studies of osteoarthritis epidemiology, including research on prevalence, incidence, and a broad array of potential risk factors at the person level and joint level. Recent findings Studies continue to illustrate the high impact of osteoarthritis worldwide, with increasing incidence. Person-level risk factors with strong evidence regarding osteoarthritis incidence and/or progression include age, sex, socioeconomic status, family history, and obesity. Joint-level risk factors with strong evidence for incident osteoarthritis risk include injury and occupational joint loading; the associations of injury and joint alignment with osteoarthritis progression are compelling. Moderate levels of physical activity have not been linked to increased osteoarthritis risk. Some topics of high recent interest or emerging evidence for association with osteoarthritis include metabolic pathways, vitamins, joint shape, bone density, limb length inequality, muscle strength and mass, and early structural damage. Summary Osteoarthritis is a complex, multifactorial disease, and there is still much to learn regarding mechanisms underlying incidence and progression. However, there are several known modifiable and preventable risk factors, including obesity and joint injury; efforts to mitigate these risks can help to lessen the impact of osteoarthritis. PMID:25775186

Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

73 6.10. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 1 Mitigation of...6.11. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 3 Mitigation of the Upgrade Alternative...courses of action, or risk- mitigation behaviors, which take place in the event that the technology is not developed by the mile- stone date (e.g

78 FR 57467 - Importation of Mangoes From Australia Into the Continental United States

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

... only and would have to be treated by irradiation to mitigate the risk of the mango seed weevil and... and to be treated by irradiation to mitigate the risk of the mango seed weevil and fruit flies. We... irradiation treatment to mitigate C. rubens. We proposed to require mangoes to be treated by irradiation for...

Managing Research in a Risk World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

2014-01-01

The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy.

PubMed

Tommaso, Chiti; Emanuele, Blasi; Guido, Pellis; Lucia, Perugini; Vincenza, Chiriacò Maria; Riccardo, Valentini

2018-07-15

To evaluate the mitigation potential provided by the SOC pool, we investigated the impact of woody encroachment in the 0-30 cm depth of mineral soil across a natural succession from abandoned pastures and croplands to broadleaves forests on the central Apennine in Italy. In parallel, to assess the effect of the land use change (LUC) from cropland to pasture, a series of pastures established on former agricultural sites, abandoned at different time in the past, were also investigated. Our results show that woody encroachment on former pastures and croplands contributes largely to mitigate climate change, with an increase of the original SOC stock of 45% (40.5 Mg C ha -1 ) and 120% (66.5 Mg C ha -1 ), respectively. Also the LUC from croplands to pastures, greatly contributes to climate change mitigation trough a SOC increase of about 80% of the original SOC (45.9 Mg C ha -1 ). The management of abandoned lands represent a crucial point in the mitigation potential of agriculture and forestry activities, and particularly the role of the SOC pool. A policy effort should focus on minimizing the risk of speculative management options, particularly when the value of woody biomass become convenient to supply new energy systems allowing monetizing a long term forests productivity. In conclusion, despite both the land abandonment and the LUC can have a different impact on the SOC pool under different climatic conditions, these results can be useful to improve the SOC estimates in the National greenhouse gases Inventory at country level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

PubMed

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Spatiotemporal trends in the discovery of new swine infectious agents.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne; Otte, Joachim; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo

2015-09-28

A literature review was conducted to assess the spatiotemporal trend and diversity of infectious agents that were newly found in pigs between 1985 and 2010. We identified 173 new variants from 91 species, of which 73 species had not been previously described in pigs. These new species, of which one third was zoonotic, were taxonomically diverse. They were identified throughout the study period, predominantly in the main pork producing countries, with the rate of discovery of new virus variants doubling within the last 10 years of the study period. Whilst infectious agent species newly detected in high-income countries were more likely to be associated with higher virulence, zoonotic agents prevailed in low- and middle-income countries. Although this trend is influenced by factors conditioning infectious agent detection - diagnostic methods, surveillance efforts, research interests -, it may suggest that different scales and types of production systems promote emergence of certain types of infectious agents. Considering the rapid transformation of the swine industry, concerted efforts are needed for improving our understanding of the factors influencing the emergence of infectious agents. This information then needs to inform the design of risk-based surveillance systems and strategies directly mitigating the risk associated with these factors.

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

2011 River Corridor Closure Contractor Revegetation and Mitigation Monitoring Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, W. J.; Lucas, J. G.; Gano, K. A.

2011-11-14

This report documents the status of revegetation projects and natural resources mitigation efforts conducted for remediated waste sites and other activities associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 cleanup of National Priorities List waste sites at Hanford. This report contains the vegetation monitoring data that was collected in the spring and summer of 2011 from the River Corridor Closure Contractor’s revegetation and mitigation areas on the Hanford Site.

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wu, Honglu; Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2007-01-01

In space, astronauts are constantly bombarded with energetic particles. The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the NASA Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. Among the identified radiation risks are cancer, acute and late CNS damage, chronic and degenerative tissue decease, and acute radiation syndrome. The term "safely" means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences can be defined. The NASA Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting the identified radiation risks. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus, the fourth element develops computer algorithms to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

75 FR 63732 - Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations, Designated Contract Markets, and Swap...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-18

... governance of certain DCOs, DCMs, or SEFs or to mitigate systemic risk, promote competition, or mitigate... the clearinghouses to reduce systemic risk, we have the banks now owning the clearinghouses. The... subject to [the CEA] and the avoidance of systemic risk.'' \\20\\ Clearing members contribute substantial...

Lessons for tsunami risk mitigation from recent events occured in Chile: research findings for alerting and evacuation from interdisciplinary perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cienfuegos, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Leon, J.; Gonzalez, G.; Repetto, P.; Urrutia, A.; Tomita, T.; Orellana, V.

2016-12-01

In the wake of the 2010 tsunami that hit Chile, a major public effort to promote interdisciplinary disaster reseach was undertaken by the Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (Conicyt) allocating funds to create the Center for Integrated Research on Natural Risks Management (CIGIDEN). This effort has been key in promoting associativity between national and international research teams in order to transform the frequent occurrence of extreme events that affect Chile into an opportunity for interdisciplinary research. In this presentation we will summarize some of the fundamental research findings regarding tsunami forecasting, alerting, and evacuation processes based on interdisciplinary field work campaigns and modeling efforts conducted in the wake of the three most recent destructive events that hit Chile in 2010, 2014, and 2015. One of the main results that we shall emphatize from these findings, is that while research and operational efforts to model and forecast tsunamis are important, technological positivisms should not undermine educational efforts that have proved to be effective in reducing casualties due to tsunamis in the near field. Indeed, in recent events that hit Chile, first tsunami waves reached the adjacent generation zones in time scales comparable with the required time for data gathering and modeling even for the most sophisticated early warning tsunami algorithms currently available. The latter emphasizes self-evacuation from coastal areas, while forecasting and monitoring tsunami hazards remain very important for alerting more distant areas, and are essential for alert cancelling especially when shelf and embayment resonance, and edge wave propagation may produce destructive late tsunami arrivals several hours after the nucleation of the earthquake. By combining some of the recent evidence we have gathered in Chile on seismic source uncertainities (both epistemic and aleatoric), tsunami hydrodynamics, the response of official national institutions in charge of emergency management, and the evacuation processess observed, we will attempt to bring some elements for discussing on the complex balance between technological positivism and risk awareness and education programs that may help prioritizing funding efforts in tsunami prone regions.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

2015-04-01

Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries with a low HDI. Thus far, identified bottlenecks for implementation and maintenance seem to be: 1) no access to capital for government and households, 2) limited awareness of possible measures, and 3) lack of law enforcement. This contribution presents an overview of the potential and applied landslide DRR measures in tropical developing countries as a crucial step towards more knowledge sharing in reducing landslide risks. References: Vaciago, G. (2013). The SafeLand Compendium of Landslide Risk Mitigation Measures. In C. Margottini, P. Canuti, & K. Sassa, Landslide Science and Practice: Volume 6, Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation (pp. 683-691). Berlin: Springer. Anderson, M. (2013). Landslide Risk Reduction in Developing Countries: Perceptions, Successes and Future Risks for Capacity Building. In C. Margottini, P. Canuti, & K. Sassa, Landslide Science and Practice: Volume 7, Social and Economic Impact and Policies (pp. 247-256). Berlin: Springer.

Neonatal hypothermia in low-resource settings.

PubMed

Mullany, Luke C

2010-12-01

Hypothermia among newborns is considered an important contributor to neonatal morbidity and mortality in low-resource settings. However, in these settings only limited progress has been made towards understanding the risk of mortality after hypothermia, describing how this relationship is dependent on both the degree or severity of exposure and the gestational age and weight status of the baby, and implementing interventions to mitigate both exposure and the associated risk of poor outcomes. Given the centrality of averting neonatal mortality to achieving global milestones towards reductions in child mortality by 2015, recent years have seen substantial resources and efforts implemented to improve understanding of global epidemiology of neonatal health. In this article, a summary of the burden, consequences, and risk factors of neonatal hypothermia in low-resources settings is presented, with a particular focus on community-based data. Context-appropriate interventions for reducing hypothermia exposure and the role of these interventions in reducing global neonatal mortality burden are explored. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Development and Current Use of BCL-2 Inhibitors for the Treatment of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

PubMed Central

Lampson, Benjamin L.; Davids, Matthew S.

2017-01-01

The BCL-2 family of proteins integrates pro- and anti-apoptotic signals within the cell and is responsible for initiation of caspase-dependent apoptosis. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cells are particularly dependent on the anti-apoptotic protein BCL-2 for their survival, making this an attractive therapeutic target in CLL. Several early efforts to create inhibitors of the anti-apoptotic family members faced significant challenges, but eventually the BCL-2 specific inhibitor venetoclax moved forward in CLL. Overall and complete response rates to venetoclax monotherapy in relapsed, refractory CLL are approximately 80% and 20%, respectively, even in patients with high risk 17p deletion. Toxicities have been manageable and include neutropenia, diarrhea, and nausea. The risk of tumor lysis syndrome (TLS), seen in early experience with the drug, has been mitigated by the use of appropriate TLS risk assessment, prophylaxis, and management. Future studies of venetoclax will focus on combination approaches, predictive biomarker discovery, and mechanisms of resistance. PMID:28116634

Disease Risk Mitigation: The Equivalence of Two Selective Mixing Strategies on Aggregate Contact Patterns & Resulting Epidemic Spread☆

PubMed Central

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-01-01

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are under-determined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

Disease risk mitigation: the equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.

PubMed

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-12-21

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon debt and carbon sequestration parity in forest bioenergy production

Treesearch

S.R. Mitchell; M.E. Harmon; K.B. O' Connell

2012-01-01

The capacity for forests to aid in climate change mitigation efforts is substantial but will ultimately depend on their management. If forests remain unharvested, they can further mitigate the increases in atmospheric CO2 that result from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. Alternatively, they can be harvested for bioenergy production and...

Reducing Radon in Schools: A Team Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ligman, Bryan K.; Fisher, Eugene J.

This document presents the process of radon diagnostics and mitigation in schools to help educators determine the best way to reduce elevated radon levels found in a school. The guidebook is designed to guide school leaders through the process of measuring radon levels, selecting the best mitigation strategy, and directing the efforts of a…

Dingoes at the Doorstep: Home Range Sizes and Activity Patterns of Dingoes and Other Wild Dogs around Urban Areas of North-Eastern Australia

PubMed Central

McNeill, Alice T.; Leung, Luke K. -P.; Goullet, Mark S.; Gentle, Matthew N.; Allen, Benjamin L.

2016-01-01

Simple summary Conflicts with dingoes and other wild dogs are becoming increasingly common in and around urban areas of Australia. A lack of basic information about wild dog movement ecology hampers efficient planning and allocation of resources to mitigate human–wild dog conflicts. We captured, collared and released 37 wild dogs in urban areas of north-eastern Australia to investigate their movement ecology. In general, wild dogs occupied small fragments of bushland within an urban matrix, were active at all times of the day, and lived within a few hundred meters of houses and humans at all times. We conclude that wild dog management strategies in urban areas should focus on the mitigation of impacts at the individual or group level, and not population-level reductions in numbers. Abstract Top-predators around the world are becoming increasingly intertwined with humans, sometimes causing conflict and increasing safety risks in urban areas. In Australia, dingoes and dingo × domestic dog hybrids are common in many urban areas, and pose a variety of human health and safety risks. However, data on urban dingo ecology is scant. We GPS-collared 37 dingoes in north-eastern Australia and continuously monitored them each 30 min for 11–394 days. Most dingoes were nocturnal, with an overall mean home range size of 17.47 km2. Overall mean daily distance travelled was 6.86 km/day. At all times dingoes were within 1000 m of houses and buildings. Home ranges appeared to be constrained to patches of suitable vegetation fragments within and around human habitation. These data can be used to reallocate dingo management effort towards mitigating actual conflicts between humans and dingoes in urban areas. PMID:27537916

Environmental stressors and cardio-metabolic disease: part I-epidemiologic evidence supporting a role for noise and air pollution and effects of mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Münzel, Thomas; Sørensen, Mette; Gori, Tommaso; Schmidt, Frank P; Rao, Xiaoquan; Brook, Jeffrey; Chen, Lung Chi; Brook, Robert D; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2017-02-21

Traffic noise and air pollution together represent the two most important environmental risk factors in urbanized societies. The first of this two-part review discusses the epidemiologic evidence in support of the existence of an association between these risk factors with cardiovascular and metabolic disease. While independent effects of these risk factors have now clearly been shown, recent studies also suggest that the two exposures may interact with each other and with traditional risk factors such as hypertension and type 2 diabetes. From a societal and policy perspective, the health effects of both air pollution and traffic noise are observed for exposures well below the thresholds currently accepted as being safe. Current gaps in knowledge, effects of intervention and their impact on cardiovascular disease, will be discussed in the last section of this review. Increased awareness of the societal burden posed by these novel risk factors and acknowledgement in traditional risk factor guidelines may intensify the efforts required for effective legislation to reduce air pollution and noise. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Transfusion-related acute lung injury risk mitigation: an update.

PubMed

Otrock, Z K; Liu, C; Grossman, B J

2017-11-01

Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a life-threatening complication of transfusion. Greater understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome has much improved during the last two decades. Plasma-containing components from female donors with leucocyte antibodies were responsible for the majority of TRALI fatalities before mitigation strategies were implemented. Over the past 15 years, measures to mitigate risk for TRALI have been implemented worldwide and they continued to evolve with time. The AABB requires that all plasma containing components and whole blood for transfusion must be collected from men, women who have not been pregnant, or women who have tested negative for human leucocyte antigen antibodies. Although the incidence of TRALI has decreased following the institution of TRALI mitigation strategies, TRALI is still the most common cause of transfusion-associated death in the United States. In this review, we focus on TRALI risk mitigation strategies. We describe the measures taken by blood collection facilities to reduce the risk of TRALI in the United States, Canada and European countries. We also review the literature for the effectiveness of these measures. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

1993-01-01

Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

Enhancing the Design Process for Complex Space Systems through Early Integration of Risk and Variable-Fidelity Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mavris, Dimitri; Osburg, Jan

2005-01-01

An important enabler of the new national Vision for Space Exploration is the ability to rapidly and efficiently develop optimized concepts for the manifold future space missions that this effort calls for. The design of such complex systems requires a tight integration of all the engineering disciplines involved, in an environment that fosters interaction and collaboration. The research performed under this grant explored areas where the space systems design process can be enhanced: by integrating risk models into the early stages of the design process, and by including rapid-turnaround variable-fidelity tools for key disciplines. Enabling early assessment of mission risk will allow designers to perform trades between risk and design performance during the initial design space exploration. Entry into planetary atmospheres will require an increased emphasis of the critical disciplines of aero- and thermodynamics. This necessitates the pulling forward of EDL disciplinary expertise into the early stage of the design process. Radiation can have a large potential impact on overall mission designs, in particular for the planned nuclear-powered robotic missions under Project Prometheus and for long-duration manned missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond under Project Constellation. This requires that radiation and associated risk and hazards be assessed and mitigated at the earliest stages of the design process. Hence, RPS is another discipline needed to enhance the engineering competencies of conceptual design teams. Researchers collaborated closely with NASA experts in those disciplines, and in overall space systems design, at Langley Research Center and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This report documents the results of this initial effort.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2013-01-01

Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and...

Making the decision to mitigate risk

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

2007-01-01

Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

Mitigating the risk of food handling in the home-delivered meal program.

PubMed

Namkung, Young; Ismail, Joseph A; Almanza, Barbara A; Nelson, Douglas C

2007-02-01

The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the length of time between packing and delivery of home-delivered meals, and the extent of foodborne illness risk to the elderly. Procedures to mitigate that risk were also evaluated. Researchers surveyed 95 drivers from home-delivered meal preparation sites in six states across the United States to determine the average length of time that passed during packing, loading, leaving, and delivery. The efficiency of various risk mitigation methods were evaluated and used to adjust the actual delivery time. Total average delivery time from packing to last delivery was 1.92 hours. This study suggests that the risk associated with the actual 1.92 hours of total delivery time could be mitigated to represent approximately 1.55 hours of effective time with proper packing and holding conditions. This methodology proposes a single measure for evaluating the effectiveness of various handling procedures associated with distributing home-delivered meals, which can be utilized to evaluate overall risk when combined with in-house preparation and client-handling behaviors.

OCP TECD Report - TARDEC Blast Mitigation Program (BMP) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Michigan (MI) Chapter Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-26

on the desire of both parties to collaborate to develop a practical and useable set of Blast Mitigation Program (BMP) design guidelines and...standards. The effort focused on the following topics: occupant-centric design philosophy and terms, test procedures, Military performance specifications...NDIA) was created based on the desire of both parties to collaborate to develop a practical and useable set of Blast Mitigation Program (BMP) design

Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergion, Viktor; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Åström, Johan; Lindhe, Andreas; Sörén, Kaisa; Rosén, Lars

2017-01-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases are of great concern to drinking water producers and can give rise to substantial costs to the society. The World Health Organisation promotes an approach where the emphasis is on mitigating risks close to the contamination source. In order to handle microbial risks efficiently, there is a need for systematic risk management. In this paper we present a framework for microbial risk management of drinking water systems. The framework incorporates cost-benefit analysis as a decision support method. The hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was set up for the Stäket catchment area in Sweden, was used to simulate the effects of four different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. The modelling results showed that the two mitigation measures that resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) reduction of Cryptosporidium spp. and Escherichia coli concentrations were a vegetative filter strip linked to cropland and improved treatment (by one Log10 unit) at the wastewater treatment plants. The mitigation measure with a vegetative filter strip linked to grazing areas resulted in a significant reduction of Cryptosporidium spp., but not of E. coli concentrations. The mitigation measure with enhancing the removal efficiency of all on-site wastewater treatment systems (total removal of 2 Log10 units) did not achieve any significant reduction of E. coli or Cryptosporidium spp. concentrations. The SWAT model was useful when characterising the effect of different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. Hydrological modelling implemented within an appropriate risk management framework is a key decision support element as it identifies the most efficient alternative for microbial risk reduction.

Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

PubMed

Dawson, Ian G J

2018-05-16

The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Characterizing risk of Ebola transmission based on frequency and type of case–contact exposures

PubMed Central

Fallah, Mosoka P.; Gaffney, Stephen G.; Yaari, Rami; Yamin, Dan; Huppert, Amit; Bawo, Luke; Nyenswah, Tolbert; Galvani, Alison P.

2017-01-01

During the initial months of the 2013–2016 Ebola epidemic, rapid geographical dissemination and intense transmission challenged response efforts across West Africa. Contextual behaviours associated with increased risk of exposure included travel to high-transmission settings, caring for sick and preparing the deceased for traditional funerals. Although such behaviours are widespread in West Africa, high-transmission pockets were observed. Superspreading and clustering are typical phenomena in infectious disease outbreaks, as a relatively small number of transmission chains are often responsible for the majority of events. Determining the characteristics of contacts at greatest risk of developing disease and of cases with greatest transmission potential could therefore help curb propagation of infection. Our analysis of contact tracing data from Montserrado County, Liberia, suggested that the probability of transmission was 4.5 times higher for individuals who were reported as having contact with multiple cases. The probability of individuals developing disease was not significantly associated with age or sex of their source case but was higher when they were in the same household as the infectious case. Surveillance efforts for rapidly identifying symptomatic individuals and effectively messaged campaigns encouraging household members to bring the sick to designated treatment centres without administration of home care could mitigate transmission. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’. PMID:28396472

Implications of sustainable development considerations for comparability across nationally determined contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Hultman, Nathan; Hartin, Corinne; McJeon, Haewon; Aldy, Joseph; Pizer, William

2018-01-01

An important component of the Paris Agreement is the assessment of comparability across nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Indeed, game-theory literature on international environmental agreements highlights the need for comparable emission-mitigation efforts by countries to avoid free-riding1. At the same time, there are well-recognized links between mitigation and other national priorities, including but not limited to the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)2-6, which raises the question of how such links might influence comparability assessments. Here, using a global integrated assessment model7, we demonstrate that geographical distributions of the influence of meeting the domestic mitigation component of the NDCs on a subset of the broader SDGs may not align with distributions of effort across NDCs obtained from conventional emissions-based or cost-based comparability metrics8-11. This implies that comparability assessments would be altered if interactions between mitigation and other SDGs were accounted for. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the extent to which these distributions differ depends on the degree to which mitigation activities directly affect broader SDGs domestically and indirectly affect international goals, and whether these effects are synergistic or antagonistic. Our analysis provides a foundation for assessing how comparability across NDCs could be better understood in the larger context of sustainability.

Reducing oral and maxillofacial surgery resident risk exposure: lessons from graduate medical education reform.

PubMed

Buhrow, Suzanne Morse; Buhrow, Jack A

2013-12-01

It is estimated that, in the United States, more than 40,000 patients are injured each day because of preventable medical errors. Although numerous studies examine the causes of medical trainee errors and efforts to mitigate patient injuries in this population, little research exists on adverse events experienced by oral and maxillofacial surgery (OMFS) residents or strategies to improve patient safety awareness in OMFS residency programs. The authors conducted a retrospective literature review of contemporary studies on medical trainees' reported risk exposure and the impact of integrating evidence-based patient safety training into residency curricula. A review of the literature suggests that OMFS residents face similar risks as medical trainees in medical, surgical, and anesthesia residency programs and may benefit from integrating competency-based safety training in the OMFS residency curriculum. OMFS trainees face particular challenges when transitioning from dental student to surgical resident, particularly related to their limited clinical exposure to high-reliability organizations, which may place them at higher risk than other medical trainees. OMFS educators should establish resident competence in patient safety principles and system improvement strategies throughout the training period.

Rapid response, monitoring, and mitigation of induced seismicity near Greeley, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeck, William; Sheehan, A.F; Benz, Harley M.; Weingarten, Matthew; Nakai, J

2016-01-01

On 1 June 2014 (03:35 UTC), an Mw 3.2 earthquake occurred in Weld County, Colorado, a historically aseismic area of the Denver–Julesburg basin. Weld County is a prominent area of oil and gas development, including many high‐rate class II wastewater injection wells. In the days following the earthquake, the University of Colorado, with support from the U.S. Geological Survey and Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology–Portable Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere, rapidly deployed six seismic stations to characterize the seismicity associated with the 1 June earthquake (the Greeley sequence) and to investigate its possible connection to wastewater disposal. The spatial and temporal proximity of earthquakes to a high‐rate wastewater disposal well strongly suggests these earthquakes were induced. Scientific communication between the university, state agencies, and the energy industry led to rapid mitigation strategies to reduce the occurrence of further earthquakes. Mitigation efforts included implementing a temporary moratorium on injection at the well, cementing the bottom portion of the disposal well to minimize hydrologic connectivity between the disposal formation and the underlying crystalline basement, and subsequently allowing injection to resume at lower rates. Following the resumption of wastewater disposal, microseismicity was closely monitored for both increases in earthquake rate and magnitude. Following mitigation efforts, between 13 August 2014 and 29 December 2015, no earthquakes larger than M 1.5 occurred near the Greeley sequence. This study demonstrates that a detailed and rapid characterization of a seismic sequence in space and time relative to disposal, combined with collaboration and communication between scientists, regulators, and industry, can lead to objective and actionable mitigation efforts that potentially reduced the rate of earthquakes and the possible generation of larger earthquakes.

Implications of sustainable development considerations for comparability across NDCs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, G.; Edmonds, J.; Calvin, K. V.; Hartin, C.; McJeon, H. C.; Clarke, L.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement delegates the establishment of national climate goals to individual governments through the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Because of the absence of a commonly agreed burden-sharing scheme within the Agreement, assessments of comparability of mitigation efforts were and will continue to be important aspects of international climate change negotiations, as domestic decision-makers are interested in knowing whether other countries undertake comparable levels of effort in reducing emissions. At the same time, there are well-recognized relationships between mitigation and other national priorities, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This raises a question about how the linkages of such goals to mitigation might influence comparability assessments. This is an important issue, because countries are expected to include not only perceptions of comparability in the context of climate mitigation, but also relationships of mitigation with the broader SDGs. We use GCAM, a global integrated assessment model that tracks the interactions across economic, energy, agricultural and land-use systems for 32 geopolitical regions under one consistent framework to illustrate the relationships between the NDCs and a subset of the broader SDGs. We study the implications of considering these relationships for comparability assessments. The relationships between mitigation and the broader SDGs are rather complex because of the interconnected nature of human and Earth systems requiring the use of integrated tools such as GCAM that simultaneously track interactions across various human and Earth systems. Our analysis highlights that while some SDG measures are enhanced by the implementation of NDCs, others are degraded. In addition, the NDCs can have effects that extend beyond national boundaries to affect international SDGs and in some instances, also carry global impact. Finally, the distributions of effort across NDCs based on conventional metrics (such as emissions and cost) and the consequences of meeting the domestic mitigation component of the NDCs for a broader set of SDGs are not necessarily the same. Our study provides a foundation to conduct a broader assessment of the comparability across the NDCs using integrated human-Earth systems models.

Heat and Health in a Changing Climate: Building a Decision Support Tool for California Public Health Officials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberg, N.

2017-12-01

There is considerable interest in overlaying climate projections with social vulnerability maps as a mechanism for targeting community adaptation efforts. Yet the identification of relevant factors for adaptation- and resilience-based decisions remain a challenge. Our findings show that successful adaptation interventions are more likely when factors are grouped and spatially represented. By designing a decision-support tool that is focused on informing long-term planning to mitigate the public health impacts of extreme heat, communities can more easily integrate climate, land use, and population characteristics into local planning processes. The ability to compare risks and potential health impacts across census tracts may also position local practitioners to leverage scarce resources. This presentation will discuss the information gaps identified by planners and public health practitioners throughout California and illustrate the spatial variations of key health risk factors.

Advances in the Development of a WCl6 CVD System for Coating UO2 Powders with Tungsten

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mireles, Omar R.; Tieman, Alyssa; Broadway, Jeramie; Hickman, Robert

2013-01-01

W-UO2 CERMET fuels are under development to enable Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) for deep space exploration. Research efforts with an emphasis on fuel fabrication, testing, and identification of potential risks is underway. One primary risk is fuel loss due to CTE mismatch between W and UO2 and the grain boundary structure of W particles resulting in higher thermal stresses. Mechanical failure can result in significant reduction of the UO2 by hot hydrogen. Fuel loss can be mitigated if the UO2 particles are coated with a layer of high density tungsten before the consolidation process. This paper discusses the work to date, results, and advances of a fluidized bed chemical vapor deposition (CVD) system that utilizes the H2-WCl6 reduction process. Keywords: Space, Nuclear, Thermal, Propulsion, Fuel, CERMET, CVD, Tungsten, Uranium

Providing rapid climate risk assessments to support cities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Horton, R. M.; Bader, D.; Ali, S.

2013-12-01

Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast of the United States on October 29, 2012 and brought the issue of urban resilience to the forefront of public discussion not only in New York City, but in cities around the world. While Hurricane Sandy as an individual extreme climate event cannot be attributed to climate change, it can serve as a warning for cities regarding disaster risks, focus attention on the importance of reducing climate vulnerability, and the need to include increasing climate risks and resilience into rebuilding programs. As severe as Sandy was, the the storm could have been much worse. The science behind potential impacts was ';in place' and ';in time,' i.e., climate risks were well understood before the storm, due to work by scientists in the region starting in the late 1990s. In the wake of this transformative storm, the rebuilding process in New York is being informed by the potential for a changing climate. The $20 billion Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) Plan for New York is grounded upon climate risk information provided by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). This expert panel, tasked with advising on the City on climate-related issues, completed a 'rapid response' climate assessment with updated climate projections and coastal flood maps. Cities are emerging as the ';first responders' to climate change in both adaptation and mitigation. Their efforts are playing a role in catalyzing national and international responses as well. New York City's actions in the wake of Hurricane Sandy are an example of a positive tipping-point response. The Urban Climate Change Research Network, a consortium of over 450 scholars and practitioners in developing and developed country cities around the world, was established in 2007 to enhance science-based decision-making on climate and other sustainability related issues in urban areas around the world. The UCCRN's first major publication is the First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3), which represents a four-year effort by 110 authors from 50+ cities around the world, and is the first ever global, interdisciplinary, science-based assessment to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities. The UCCRN has initiated the process of developing the Second UCCRN Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), to facilitate ongoing and active learning and to continue providing practical, evidence-based guidance for city decision-makers.

Tsunami Risk Management in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): Some Issues, Challenges and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Goff, James

2013-09-01

The Pacific is well known for producing tsunamis, and events such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki, Japan disaster demonstrate the vulnerability of coastal communities. We review what is known about the current state of tsunami risk management for Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), identify the issues and challenges associated with affecting meaningful tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and outline strategies and possible ways forward. Small island states are scattered across the vast Pacific region and these states have to varying degrees been affected by not only large tsunamis originating in circum-Pacific subduction zones, but also more regionally devastating events. Having outlined and described what is meant by the risk management process, the various problems associated with our current understanding of this process are examined. The poorly understood hazard related to local, regional and distant sources is investigated and the dominant focus on seismic events at the expense of other tsunami source types is noted. We reflect on the challenges of undertaking numerical modelling from generation to inundation and specifically detail the problems as they relate to PICTs. This is followed by an exploration of the challenges associated with mapping exposure and estimating vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas. The latter part of the paper is devoted to exploring what mitigation of the tsunami risk can look like and draw upon good practice cases as exemplars of the actions that can be taken from the local to regional level. Importantly, given the diversity of PICTs, no one approach will suit all places. The paper closes by making a series of recommendations to assist PICTs and the wider tsunami research community in thinking through improvements to their tsunami risk management processes and the research that can underpin these efforts.

Integrating Mercury Science and Policy in the Marine Context: Challenges and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Lambert, Kathleen F.; Evers, David C.; Warner, Kimberly A.; King, Susannah L.; Selin, Noelle E.

2014-01-01

Mercury is a global pollutant and presents policy challenges at local, regional, and global scales. Mercury poses risks to the health of people, fish, and wildlife exposed to elevated levels of mercury, most commonly from the consumption of methylmercury in marine and estuarine fish. The patchwork of current mercury abatement efforts limits the effectiveness of national and multi-national policies. This paper provides an overview of the major policy challenges and opportunities related to mercury in coastal and marine environments, and highlights science and policy linkages of the past several decades. The U.S. policy examples explored here point to the need for a full life cycle approach to mercury policy with a focus on source reduction and increased attention to: (1) the transboundary movement of mercury in air, water, and biota; (2) the coordination of policy efforts across multiple environmental media; (3) the cross-cutting issues related to pollutant interactions, mitigation of legacy sources, and adaptation to elevated mercury via improved communication efforts; and (4) the integration of recent research on human and ecological health effects into benefits analyses for regulatory purposes. Stronger science and policy integration will benefit national and international efforts to prevent, control, and minimize exposure to methylmercury. PMID:22901766

Dispositional Mindfulness, Shame, and Compulsive Sexual Behaviors among Men in Residential Treatment for Substance Use Disorders.

PubMed

Brem, Meagan J; Shorey, Ryan C; Anderson, Scott; Stuart, Gregory L

2017-12-01

Approximately 31% of men in treatment for a substance use disorders (SUD) engage in compulsive sexual behavior (CSB). Shame, a well-documented consequence of CSB, increases the likelihood of relapse following treatment for SUDs. Despite the risk of relapse, prior research has not investigated factors that may attenuate the relation between CSB and shame. Dispositional mindfulness is one such factor known to mitigate shame. However, researchers have yet to examine dispositional mindfulness as a moderator of the relationship between CSB and shame among a sample of men in treatment for SUDs. In an effort to inform intervention efforts, the present study aimed to investigate the hypothesis that CSB would not relate to shame among men with high, as opposed to low, levels of dispositional mindfulness. The present study reviewed medical records of 184 men in residential treatment for SUDs who completed cross-sectional measures of shame, CSB, dispositional mindfulness, and substance use problems. Results demonstrated a significant interaction between CSB and dispositional mindfulness such that CSB positively related to shame at low, but not mean or high, levels of dispositional mindfulness. These results support and extend previous mindfulness and CSB treatment research. Findings suggested that intervention efforts for CSB may benefit from increasing dispositional mindfulness in an effort to reduce shame-related cognitions.

Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

PubMed

Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

2012-08-01

In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A novel process for introducing a new intraoperative program: a multidisciplinary paradigm for mitigating hazards and improving patient safety.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Paz, Jose M; Mark, Lynette J; Herzer, Kurt R; Michelson, James D; Grogan, Kelly L; Herman, Joseph; Hunt, David; Wardlow, Linda; Armour, Elwood P; Pronovost, Peter J

2009-01-01

Since the Institute of Medicine's report, To Err is Human, was published, numerous interventions have been designed and implemented to correct the defects that lead to medical errors and adverse events; however, most efforts were largely reactive. Safety, communication, team performance, and efficiency are areas of care that attract a great deal of attention, especially regarding the introduction of new technologies, techniques, and procedures. We describe a multidisciplinary process that was implemented at our hospital to identify and mitigate hazards before the introduction of a new technique: high-dose-rate intraoperative radiation therapy, (HDR-IORT). A multidisciplinary team of surgeons, anesthesiologists, radiation oncologists, physicists, nurses, hospital risk managers, and equipment specialists used a structured process that included in situ clinical simulation to uncover concerns among care providers and to prospectively identify and mitigate defects for patients who would undergo surgery using the HDR-IORT technique. We identified and corrected 20 defects in the simulated patient care process before application to actual patients. Subsequently, eight patients underwent surgery using the HDR-IORT technique with no recurrence of simulation-identified or unanticipated defects. Multiple benefits were derived from the use of this systematic process to introduce the HDR-IORT technique; namely, the safety and efficiency of care for this select patient population was optimized, and this process mitigated harmful or adverse events before the inclusion of actual patients. Further work is needed, but the process outlined in this paper can be universally applied to the introduction of any new technologies, treatments, or procedures.

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

Solar Dynamics Observatory On-Orbit Jitter Testing, Analysis, and Mitigation Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Kuo-Chia; Blaurock, Carl A.; Bourkland, Kristin L.; Morgenstern, Wendy M.; Maghami, Peiman G.

2011-01-01

The recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has two science instruments onboard that required sub-arcsecond pointing stability. Significant effort has been spent pre-launch to characterize the disturbances sources and validating jitter level at the component, sub-assembly, and spacecraft levels. However, an end-to-end jitter test emulating the flight condition was not performed on the ground due to cost and risk concerns. As a result, the true jitter level experienced on orbit remained uncertain prior to launch. Based on the pre-launch analysis, several operational constraints were placed on the observatory aimed to minimize the instrument jitter levels. If the actual jitter is below the analysis predictions, these operational constraints can be relaxed to reduce the burden of the flight operations team. The SDO team designed a three-day jitter test, utilizing the instrument sensors to measure pointing jitter up to 256 Hz. The test results were compared to pre-launch analysis predictions, used to determine which operational constraints can be relaxed, and analyzed for setting the jitter mitigation strategies for future SDO operations.

Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injection hazard mitigation efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeck, William; Hayes, Gavin; McNamara, Daniel E.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Barnhart, William; Earle, Paul; Benz, Harley M.

2017-01-01

The 3 September 2016, Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake was the largest recorded earthquake in the state of Oklahoma. Seismic and geodetic observations of the Pawnee sequence, including precise hypocenter locations and moment tensor modeling, shows that the Pawnee earthquake occurred on a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip basement fault that intersects the mapped right-lateral Labette fault zone. The Pawnee earthquake is part of an unprecedented increase in the earthquake rate in Oklahoma that is largely considered the result of the deep injection of waste fluids from oil and gas production. If this is, indeed, the case for the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake, then this would be the largest event to have been induced by fluid injection. Since 2015, Oklahoma has undergone wide-scale mitigation efforts primarily aimed at reducing injection volumes. Thus far in 2016, the rate of M3 and greater earthquakes has decreased as compared to 2015, while the cumulative moment—or energy released from earthquakes—has increased. This highlights the difficulty in earthquake hazard mitigation efforts given the poorly understood long-term diffusive effects of wastewater injection and their connection to seismicity.

Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North

2010-01-01

Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Paoli, Rosa Grazia

2008-07-08

Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 'Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion ofmore » compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made.« less

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mitigation options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

Impact of Stress and Mitigating Information on Evaluations, Attributions, Affect, Disciplinary Choices, and Expectations of Compliance in Mothers at High and Low Risk for Child Physical Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Paul, Joaquin; Asla, Nagore; Perez-Albeniz, Alicia; De Cadiz, Barbara Torres-Gomez

2006-01-01

The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers…

Time for a change in how new antibiotics are reimbursed: Development of an insurance framework for funding new antibiotics based on a policy of risk mitigation.

PubMed

Towse, Adrian; Hoyle, Christopher K; Goodall, Jonathan; Hirsch, Mark; Mestre-Ferrandiz, Jorge; Rex, John H

2017-10-01

Healthcare systems depend on the availability of new antibiotics. However, there is a lack of treatments for infections caused by multidrug resistant (MDR) pathogens and a weak development pipeline of new therapies. One core challenge to the development of new antibiotics targeting MDR pathogens is that expected revenues are insufficient to drive long-term investment. In the USA and Europe, financial incentives have focussed on supporting R&D, reducing regulatory burden, and extending market exclusivity. Using resistance data to estimate global revenues, we demonstrate that the combined effects of these incentives are unlikely to rekindle investment in antibiotics. We analyse two supplemental approaches: a commercial incentive (a premium price model) and a new business model (an insurance model). A premium price model is familiar and readily implemented but the required price and local budget impact is highly uncertain and sensitive to cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in prevalence of antibiotic resistance. An insurance model delivering risk mitigation for payers, providers and manufacturers would provide an incentive to drive investment in the development of new antibiotics while also facilitating antibiotic conservation. We suggest significant efforts should be made to test the insurance model as one route to stimulate investment in novel antibiotics. Copyright © 2017 Office of Health Economics. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would change that picture.

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

A protocol for coordinating post-tsunami field reconnaissance efforts in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick I.; Wood, Nathan J.; Kong, Laura; Shulters, Michael V.; Richards, Kevin D.; Dunbar, Paula; Tamura, Gen; Young, Edward J.

2015-01-01

In the aftermath of a catastrophic tsunami, much is to be learned about tsunami generation and propagation, landscape and ecological changes, and the response and recovery of those affected by the disaster. Knowledge of the impacted area directly helps response and relief personnel in their efforts to reach and care for survivors and for re-establishing community services. First-hand accounts of tsunami-related impacts and consequences also help researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in other parts of the world that lack recent events to better understand and manage their own societal risks posed by tsunami threats. Conducting post-tsunami surveys and disseminating useful results to decision makers in an effective, efficient, and timely manner is difficult given the logistical issues and competing demands in a post-disaster environment. To facilitate better coordination of field-data collection and dissemination of results, a protocol for coordinating post-tsunami science surveys was developed by a multi-disciplinary group of representatives from state and federal agencies in the USA. This protocol is being incorporated into local, state, and federal post-tsunami response planning through the efforts of the Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and the U.S. National Plan for Disaster Impact Assessments. Although the protocol was designed to support a coordinated US post-tsunami response, we believe it could help inform post-disaster science surveys conducted elsewhere and further the discussion on how hazard researchers can most effectively operate in disaster environments.

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Progress toward Global Interruption of Wild Poliovirus Transmission, 2010–2013 and Tackling the Challenges to Complete Eradication

PubMed Central

Wassilak, Steven G.F.; Oberste, M. Steven; Tangermann, Rudolph H.; Diop, Ousmane M.; Jafari, Hamid S.; Armstrong, Gregory L.

2015-01-01

Despite substantial progress, global polio eradication has remained elusive. Indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in four endemic countries (Afghanistan, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan) persisted into 2010 and outbreaks from imported WPV continued. By 2013, most outbreaks in the interim were promptly controlled. The number of polio-affected districts globally has declined by74% (from 481 in 2009 to 126 in 2013), including a 79% decrease in the number of affected districts in endemic countries (from 304 to 63). India is now polio-free. The challenges to success in the remaining polio-endemic countries include 1) threats to the security of vaccinators in each country and a ban on polio vaccination in areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan; 2) a risk of decreased government commitment; and 3) remaining surveillance gaps. Coordinated efforts under the International Health Regulations and efforts to mitigate the challenges provide a clear opportunity to soon secure global eradication. PMID:25316873

Certified Training for Nuclear and Radioactive Source Security Management.

PubMed

Johnson, Daniel

2017-04-01

Radioactive sources are used by hospitals, research facilities and industry for such purposes as diagnosing and treating illnesses, sterilising equipment and inspecting welds. Unfortunately, many States, regulatory authorities and licensees may not appreciate how people with malevolent intentions could use radioactive sources, and statistics confirm that a number of security incidents happen around the globe. The adversary could be common thieves, activists, insiders, terrorists and organised crime groups. Mitigating this risk requires well trained and competent staff who have developed the knowledge, attributes and skills necessary to successfully discharge their security responsibilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Institute for Nuclear Security are leading international training efforts. The target audience is a multi-disciplinary group of professionals with management responsibilities for security at facilities with radioactive sources. These efforts to promote training and competence amongst practitioners have been recognised at the 2014 and 2016 Nuclear Security and Nuclear Industry Summits. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Children’s Sleep and Academic Achievement: The Moderating Role of Effortful Control

PubMed Central

Diaz, Anjolii; Berger, Rebecca; Valiente, Carlos; Eisenberg, Nancy; VanSchyndel, Sarah; Tao, Chun; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Doane, Leah D.; Thompson, Marilyn S.; Silva, Kassondra M.; Southworth, Jody

2016-01-01

Poor sleep is thought to interfere with children’s learning and academic achievement (AA). However, existing research and theory indicate there are factors that may mitigate the academic risk associated with poor sleep. The purpose of this study was to examine the moderating role of children’s effortful control (EC) on the relation between sleep and AA in young children. One hundred and three 4.5- to 7-year-olds (M = 5.98 years, SD = 0.61) wore a wrist-based actigraph for five continuous weekday nights. Teachers and coders reported on children’s EC. EC was also assessed with a computer-based task at school. Additionally, we obtained a standardized measure of children’s AA. There was a positive main effect of sleep efficiency to AA. Several relations between sleep and AA were moderated by EC and examination of the simple slopes indicated that the negative relation between sleep and AA was only significant at low levels of EC. PMID:28255190

Design of Two RadWorks Storm Shelters for Solar Particle Event Shielding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew; Cerro, Jeffery; Latorella, Kara; Clowdsley, Martha; Watson, Judith; Albertson, Cindy; Norman, Ryan; Le Boffe, Vincent; Walker, Steven

2014-01-01

In order to enable long-duration human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the risks associated with exposure of astronaut crews to space radiation must be mitigated with practical and affordable solutions. The space radiation environment beyond the magnetosphere is primarily a combination of two types of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). While mitigating GCR exposure remains an open issue, reducing astronaut exposure to SPEs is achievable through material shielding because they are made up primarily of medium-energy protons. In order to ensure astronaut safety for long durations beyond low-Earth orbit, SPE radiation exposure must be mitigated. However, the increasingly demanding spacecraft propulsive performance for these ambitious missions requires minimal mass and volume radiation shielding solutions which leverage available multi-functional habitat structures and logistics as much as possible. This paper describes the efforts of NASA's RadWorks Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project to design two minimal mass SPE radiation shelter concepts leveraging available resources: one based upon reconfiguring habitat interiors to create a centralized protection area and one based upon augmenting individual crew quarters with waterwalls and logistics. Discussion items include the design features of the concepts, a radiation analysis of their implementations, an assessment of the parasitic mass of each concept, and the result of a human in the loop evaluation performed to drive out design and operational issues.

A gap analysis of the United States death care sector to determine training and education needs pertaining to highly infectious disease mitigation and management.

PubMed

Le, Aurora B; Witter, Lesley; Herstein, Jocelyn J; Jelden, Katelyn C; Beam, Elizabeth L; Gibbs, Shawn G; Lowe, John J

2017-09-01

A United States industry-specific gap analysis survey of the death care sector-which comprises organizations and businesses affiliated with the funeral industry and the handling of human remains- was developed, the results analyzed, and training and education needs in relation to highly infectious disease mitigation and management were explored in an effort to identify where occupational health and safety can be enhanced in this worker population. Collaborating national death care organizations distributed the 47-question electronic survey. N = 424 surveys were initiated and results recorded. The survey collected death care sector-specific information pertaining to the comfortability and willingness to handle highly infectious remains; perceptions of readiness, current policies and procedures in place to address highly infectious diseases; current highly infectious disease training levels, available resources, and personal protective equipment. One-third of respondents have been trained on how to manage highly infectious remains. There was a discrepancy between Supervisor/Management and Employee/Worker perceptions on employees' willingness and comfortability to manage potentially highly infectious remains. More than 40% of respondents did not know the correct routes of transmission for viral hemorrhagic fevers. Results suggest death care workers could benefit from increasing up-to-date industry-specific training and education on highly infectious disease risk mitigation and management. Professional death care sector organizations are positioned to disseminate information, training, and best practices.

Landslide risk models for decision making.

PubMed

Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

2009-11-01

This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

Probability of Causation for Space Radiation Carcinogenesis Following International Space Station, Near Earth Asteroid, and Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2012-01-01

Cancer risk is an important concern for International Space Station (ISS) missions and future exploration missions. An important question concerns the likelihood of a causal association between a crew members radiation exposure and the occurrence of cancer. The probability of causation (PC), also denoted as attributable risk, is used to make such an estimate. This report summarizes the NASA model of space radiation cancer risks and uncertainties, including improvements to represent uncertainties in tissue-specific cancer incidence models for never-smokers and the U.S. average population. We report on tissue-specific cancer incidence estimates and PC for different post-mission times for ISS and exploration missions. An important conclusion from our analysis is that the NASA policy to limit the risk of exposure-induced death to 3% at the 95% confidence level largely ensures that estimates of the PC for most cancer types would not reach a level of significance. Reducing uncertainties through radiobiological research remains the most efficient method to extend mission length and establish effective mitigators for cancer risks. Efforts to establish biomarkers of space radiation-induced tumors and to estimate PC for rarer tumor types are briefly discussed.

Risks and risk governance in unconventional shale gas development.

PubMed

Small, Mitchell J; Stern, Paul C; Bomberg, Elizabeth; Christopherson, Susan M; Goldstein, Bernard D; Israel, Andrei L; Jackson, Robert B; Krupnick, Alan; Mauter, Meagan S; Nash, Jennifer; North, D Warner; Olmstead, Sheila M; Prakash, Aseem; Rabe, Barry; Richardson, Nathan; Tierney, Susan; Webler, Thomas; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Zielinska, Barbara

2014-01-01

A broad assessment is provided of the current state of knowledge regarding the risks associated with shale gas development and their governance. For the principal domains of risk, we identify observed and potential hazards and promising mitigation options to address them, characterizing current knowledge and research needs. Important unresolved research questions are identified for each area of risk; however, certain domains exhibit especially acute deficits of knowledge and attention, including integrated studies of public health, ecosystems, air quality, socioeconomic impacts on communities, and climate change. For these, current research and analysis are insufficient to either confirm or preclude important impacts. The rapidly evolving landscape of shale gas governance in the U.S. is also assessed, noting challenges and opportunities associated with the current decentralized (state-focused) system of regulation. We briefly review emerging approaches to shale gas governance in other nations, and consider new governance initiatives and options in the U.S. involving voluntary industry certification, comprehensive development plans, financial instruments, and possible future federal roles. In order to encompass the multiple relevant disciplines, address the complexities of the evolving shale gas system and reduce the many key uncertainties needed for improved management, a coordinated multiagency federal research effort will need to be implemented.

Characteristics and Risk Perceptions of Ghanaians Potentially Exposed to Bat-Borne Zoonoses through Bushmeat.

PubMed

Kamins, Alexandra O; Rowcliffe, J Marcus; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Yaa; Cunningham, Andrew A; Wood, James L N; Restif, Olivier

2015-03-01

Emerging zoonotic pathogens from wildlife pose increasing public health threats globally. Bats, in particular, host an array of zoonotic pathogens, yet there is little research on how bats and humans interact, how people perceive bats and their accompanying disease risk, or who is most at risk. Eidolon helvum, the largest and most abundant African fruit bat species, is widely hunted and eaten in Ghana and also carries potentially zoonotic pathogens. This combination raises concerns, as hunting and butchering bushmeat are common sources of zoonotic transmission. Through a combination of interviews with 577 Ghanaians across southern Ghana, we identified the characteristics of people involved in the bat-bushmeat trade and we explored their perceptions of risk. Bat hunting, selling and consumption are widely distributed across regional and ethnic lines, with hotspots in certain localities, while butchering is predominantly done by women and active hunters. Interviewees held little belief of disease risk from bats, saw no ecological value in fruit bats and associated the consumption of bats with specific tribes. These data can be used to inform disease and conservation management plans, drawing on social contexts and ensuring that local voices are heard within the larger global effort to study and mitigate outbreaks.

Supply chain risk management in newspaper company: House of risk approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnasari, Sintya; Hisjam, Muhammad; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

In the supply chain (SC) of newspapers, the printing company is the main entity that has several processes, i.e. procure raw materials, print plate and newspapers, and also distribute newspaper to consumers. The existing risks in the newspaper printing company are quite high. A wide range of disturbances or risks needs to be identified to map out the characteristics of the risk sources that will impact on the performance of the supply chain. Therefore, the printing companies need to manage their supply chain risk of the five major SC processes (such as plan, source, deliver, make, and return). In a case study of a newspaper company in Surakarta, the company have not implemented a risk management process that affects the company. This study is aimed to map the risks in the printing company and formulate risk mitigation alternatives to mitigate the risks. The house of risk (HOR) method was chosen to select a set of proactive actions deemed cost-effective in managing SC Risks in the newspaper company. The model consisting of two stages, the first stage (HOR1) was done by identifying risk, risk causing agents and then measured the severity and occurrences to calculate the Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value. The second stage (HOR2) is intended to formulate and prioritize the action of mitigation that the company should pursue to reduce the probability of risk agents to occur. The result shows that the innovative model of HOR in Newspaper Company was presented. There are 24 risk events, 20 causing agents and two priority risks in HOR1. The HOR 2 was proposed 9 ranks of mitigation strategy for priority risk agents, from the easiest to the hardest strategy for the company to implement it.

Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

2015-01-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

PubMed

Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

2016-05-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

PubMed Central

Brorby, Gregory P.; Krishan, Mansi

2016-01-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

Mitigation of disease- and treatment-related risks in patients with psoriatic arthritis.

PubMed

Bergman, Martin; Lundholm, Amy

2017-03-20

Psoriatic arthritis is a part of the family of diseases referred to as spondyloarthropathies, a diverse group of chronic inflammatory disorders with common clinical, radiographic, and genetic features. Peripheral arthritis is the most common symptom of psoriatic arthritis and patients also frequently experience involvement of the entheses, spine, skin, and nails. Due to the diverse clinical spectrum of disease severity, tissues affected, and associated comorbidities, the treatment of psoriatic arthritis can be challenging and it is necessary to mitigate risks associated with both the disease and its treatment. These risks include disease-specific, treatment-related, and psychological risks. Disease-specific risks include those associated with disease progression that can limit functional status and be mitigated through early diagnosis and initiation of treatment. Risks also arise from comorbidities that are associated with psoriatic arthritis such as cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and gastrointestinal inflammation. Patient outcomes can be affected by the treatment strategy employed and the pharmacologic agents administered. Additionally, it is important for physicians to be aware of risks specific to each therapeutic option. The impact of psoriatic arthritis is not limited to the skin and joints and it is common for patients to experience quality-of-life impairment. Patients are also more likely to have depression, anxiety, and alcoholism. This article reviews the many risks associated with psoriatic arthritis and provides guidance on mitigating these risks.

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies.

PubMed

Stone, Vicki; Führ, Martin; Feindt, Peter H; Bouwmeester, Hans; Linkov, Igor; Sabella, Stefania; Murphy, Finbarr; Bizer, Kilian; Tran, Lang; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Fito, Carlos; Andersen, Torben; Anderson, Diana; Bergamaschi, Enrico; Cherrie, John W; Cowan, Sue; Dalemcourt, Jean-Francois; Faure, Michael; Gabbert, Silke; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Johnston, Helinor J; Lansdown, Terry C; Linder, Stefan; Marvin, Hans J P; Mullins, Martin; Purnhagen, Kai; Puzyn, Tomasz; Sanchez Jimenez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Streftaris, George; van Tongeren, Martie; Voelcker, Nicolas H; Voyiatzis, George; Yannopoulos, Spyros N; Poortvliet, P Marijn

2017-12-14

Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk-based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano-specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, Ben Joseph; Mendoza, Jerico; Uichanco, Christopher; Mahar Francisco Amante Lagmay, Alfredo; Moises, Mark Anthony; Delmendo, Patricia; Eneri Tingin, Neil

2015-04-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of people in areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, B. J. M.; Mendoza, J.; Uichanco, C.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Moises, M. A.; Delmendo, P.; Tingin, N. E.

2014-12-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications climate change has had on combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report describes the potential scope and magnitude of climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow (CSOs) mitigation efforts in the Great Lakes Region and New England Region.

Advanced CO 2 Leakage Mitigation using Engineered Biomineralization Sealing Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Phillips, Adrienne

2015-03-31

This research project addresses one of the goals of the DOE Carbon Sequestration Program (CSP). The CSP core R&D effort is driven by technology and is accomplished through laboratory and pilot scale research aimed at new technologies for greenhouse gas mitigation. Accordingly, this project was directed at developing novel technologies for mitigating unwanted upward leakage of carbon dioxide (CO 2) injected into the subsurface as part of carbon capture and storage (CCS) activities. The technology developed by way of this research project is referred to as microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP).

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

California Earthquake Clearinghouse Crisis Information-Sharing Strategy in Support of Situational Awareness, Understanding Interdependencies of Critical Infrastructure, Regional Resilience, Preparedness, Risk Assessment/mitigation, Decision-Making and Everyday Operational Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosinski, A.; Morentz, J.; Beilin, P.

2017-12-01

The principal function of the California Earthquake Clearinghouse is to provide State and Federal disaster response managers, and the scientific and engineering communities, with prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences from significant seismic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The overarching problem highlighted in discussions with Clearinghouse partners is the confusion and frustration of many of the Operational Area representatives, and some regional utilities throughout the state on what software applications they should be using and maintaining to meet State, Federal, and Local, requirements, and for what purposes, and how to deal with the limitations of these applications. This problem is getting in the way of making meaningful progress on developing multi-application interoperability and the necessary supporting cross-sector information-sharing procedures and dialogue on essential common operational information that entities need to share for different all hazards missions and related operational activities associated with continuity, security, and resilience. The XchangeCore based system the Clearinghouse is evolving helps deal with this problem, and does not compound it by introducing yet another end-user application; there is no end-user interface with which one views XchangeCore, all viewing of data provided through XchangeCore occurs in and on existing, third-party operational applications. The Clearinghouse efforts with XchangeCore are compatible with FEMA, which is currently using XchangeCore-provided data for regional and National Business Emergency Operations Center (source of business information sharing during emergencies) response. Also important, and should be emphasized, is that information-sharing is not just for response, but for preparedness, risk assessment/mitigation decision-making, and everyday operational needs for situational awareness. In other words, the benefits of the Clearinghouse information sharing efforts transcend emergency response. The Clearinghouse is in the process of developing an Information-Sharing System Guide and CONOPS/ templates, that should be aimed a multi-stakeholder, non-technical audience.

Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, H.; Christenberger, S.; Schwarze, R.

2011-02-01

Flood damage is on the increase due to a combination of growing vulnerability and a changing climate. This trend can be mitigated only through significantly improved flood risk management which, alongside the efforts of public authorities, will include improvements in the mitigation measures adopted by private households. Economically "reasonable" efforts to self-insure and self-protect should be expected from households before the government steps in with publicly-funded relief programmes. To gain a deeper understanding of the benefits of households' precautionary measures, telephone interviews with private home owners were conducted in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany after the floods of 2002 and again after the floods in 2005 and 2006. Only detached, solid single-family houses were included in this study, which is based on 759 interviews. In addition, market-based cost assessments were solicited based on a "model building". Expert interviews and a literature review - including catalogues and price lists for building materials and household appliances - were used as back-up information for the cost assessments. The comparison of costs and benefits shows that large investments, such as building a sealed cellar, are only economically efficient if the building is flooded very frequently, that is, if it is located in a high flood risk area. In such areas it would be preferable in economic terms not to build a new house at all - or else to build a house without a cellar. Small investments, however, such as oil tank protection, can prevent serious damage at low cost. Such investments are still profitable even if the building is flooded every 50 years or less on average. It could be argued that these low-cost measures should be made mandatory through the enforcement of building codes. Financial incentives built into insurance contracts coupled with limits set on governmental relief programmes would provide an economic motivation for people to invest in precautionary measures.

A Summary of the NASA ISS Space Debris Collision Avoidance Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph

2002-01-01

Creating and implementing a process for the mitigation of the impact hazards due to cornets and asteroids will prove to be a complex and involved process. The closest similar program is the collision avoidance process currently used for protection of the International Space Station (ISS). This process, in operation for over three years, has many similarities to the NEG risk problem. By reviewing the ISS program, a broader perspective on the complications of and requirements for a NEO risk mitigation program might be obtained. Specifically, any lessons learned and continuing issues of concern might prove useful in the development of a NEO risk assessment and mitigation program.

Nurses' Perceptions of Implementing Fall Prevention Interventions to Mitigate Patient-Specific Fall Risk Factors.

PubMed

Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret; Ripley, Robert; Titler, Marita G

2016-08-01

Evidence-based (EB) fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors are readily available but not routinely used in practice. Few studies have examined nurses' perceptions about both the use of these EB interventions and implementation strategies designed to promote their adoption. This article reports qualitative findings of nurses' perceptions about use of EB fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks, and implementation strategies to promote use of these interventions. The findings revealed five major themes: before-study fall prevention practices, use of EB fall prevention interventions tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors, beneficial implementation strategies, overall impact on approach to fall prevention, and challenges These findings are useful to guide nurses' engagement and use of EB fall prevention practices tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors. © The Author(s) 2016.

Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

PubMed

Geiger, Karl

2010-05-01

Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Few, Sheridan; Gambhir, Ajay; Napp, Tamaryn; ...

2017-01-27

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energymore » system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Few, Sheridan; Gambhir, Ajay; Napp, Tamaryn

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energymore » system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

Including School Resource Officers in School-Based Crisis Intervention: Strengthening Student Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Richard K.; Logan, Joan; Davis, Scott A.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the importance of trained police officers, School Resource Officers (SROs), participating in school-based crisis response efforts. These efforts, mostly preventative in nature, mitigate and de-escalate trauma for students exposed to a wide variety of challenging situations. Scenarios are presented with dialogue between…

How CO2 Leakage May Impact the Role of Geologic Carbon Storage in Climate Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, C. A.; Deng, H.; Bielicki, J. M.; Fitts, J. P.; Oppenheimer, M.

2014-12-01

Among CCUS technologies (Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration), geological storage of CO2 has a large potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but confidence in its deployment is often clouded by the possibility and cost of leakage. In this study, we took the Michigan sedimentary basin as an example to investigate the monetized risks associated with leakage, using the Risk Interference of Subsurface CO2 Storage (RISCS) model. The model accounts for spatial heterogeneity and variability of hydraulic properties of the subsurface system and permeability of potential leaking wells. In terms of costs, the model quantifies the financial consequences of CO2 escaping back to the atmosphere as well as the costs incurred if CO2 or brine leaks into overlying formations and interferes with other subsurface activities or resources. The monetized leakage risks derived from the RISCS model were then used to modify existing cost curves by shifting them upwards and changing their curvatures. The modified cost curves were used in the integrated assessment model - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model), which provides policy-relevant results to help inform the potential role of CCUS in future energy systems when carbon mitigation targets and incentives are in place. The results showed that the extent of leakage risks has a significant effect on the extent of CCUS deployment. Under more stringent carbon mitigation policies such as a high carbon tax, higher leakage risks can be afforded and incorporating leakage risks will have a smaller impact on CCUS deployment. Alternatively, if the leakage risks were accounted for by charging a fixed premium, similar to how the risk of nuclear waste disposal is treated, the contribution of CCUS in mitigating climate change varies, depending on the value of the premium.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

PubMed

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using human factors engineering to improve patient safety in the cardiovascular operating room.

PubMed

Gurses, Ayse P; Martinez, Elizabeth A; Bauer, Laura; Kim, George; Lubomski, Lisa H; Marsteller, Jill A; Pennathur, Priyadarshini R; Goeschel, Chris; Pronovost, Peter J; Thompson, David

2012-01-01

Despite significant medical advances, cardiac surgery remains a high risk procedure. Sub-optimal work system design characteristics can contribute to the risks associated with cardiac surgery. However, hazards due to work system characteristics have not been identified in the cardiovascular operating room (CVOR) in sufficient detail to guide improvement efforts. The purpose of this study was to identify and categorize hazards (anything that has the potential to cause a preventable adverse patient safety event) in the CVOR. An interdisciplinary research team used prospective hazard identification methods including direct observations, contextual inquiry, and photographing to collect data in 5 hospitals for a total 22 cardiac surgeries. We performed thematic analysis of the qualitative data guided by a work system model. 60 categories of hazards such as practice variations, high workload, non-compliance with evidence-based guidelines, not including clinicians' in medical device purchasing decisions were found. Results indicated that hazards are common in cardiac surgery and should be eliminated or mitigated to improve patient safety. To improve patient safety in the CVOR, efforts should focus on creating a culture of safety, increasing compliance with evidence based infection control practices, improving communication and teamwork, and designing better tools and technologies through partnership among all stakeholders.

DANTi: Detect and Avoid iN The Cockpit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, James; Consiglio, Maria; Munoz, Cesar

2017-01-01

Mid-air collision risk continues to be a concern for manned aircraft operations, especially near busy non-towered airports. The use of Detect and Avoid (DAA) technologies and draft standards developed for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), either alone or in combination with other collision avoidance technologies, may be useful in mitigating this collision risk for manned aircraft. This paper describes a NASA research effort known as DANTi (DAA iN The Cockpit), including the initial development of the concept of use, a software prototype, and results from initial flight tests conducted with this prototype. The prototype used a single Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) traffic sensor and the own aircraft's position, track, heading and air data information, along with NASA-developed DAA software to display traffic alerts and maneuver guidance to manned aircraft pilots on a portable tablet device. Initial flight tests with the prototype showed a successful DANTi proof-of-concept, but also demonstrated that the traffic separation parameter set specified in the RTCA SC-228 Phase I DAA MOPS may generate excessive false alerts during traffic pattern operations. Several parameter sets with smaller separation values were also tested in flight, one of which yielded more timely alerts for the maneuvers tested. Results from this study may further inform future DANTi efforts as well as Phase II DAA MOPS development.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

The state of the art in raptor electrocution research: A global review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lehman, Robert N.; Kennedy, P.L.; Savidge, J.A.

2007-01-01

We systematically reviewed the raptor electrocution literature to evaluate study designs and methods used in raptor electrocution research, mitigation, and monitoring, emphasizing original research published in English. Specifically, we wondered if three decades of effort to reduce raptor electrocutions has had positive effects. The majority of literature examined came from North America, western Europe, and South Africa. In spite of intensive and often sustained effort by industry and governments across three continents for 30 years, reductions in the incidence of electrocution have been demonstrated in only a few studies. Reliable rate estimates of electrocution mortality generally are unavailable, with some exceptions. Nearly half of 110 studies we analyzed in detail were retrospective reviews of historical mortality records, banding data, or results of necropsies on dead birds received at pathology and veterinary facilities. Among prospective studies, less than half used unbiased approaches to sampling and many did not provide enough detail to assess the sampling design used. At this time, few researchers can demonstrate the reliability of standardized retrofitting procedures or the effectiveness of monitoring techniques. Future progress in reducing raptor mortalities on power lines will benefit from properly designed studies that generate rate estimates of mortality, address biasing factors, and include predictions concerning risk and techniques to reduce risk that can be tested in the field or laboratory.

The Keys to Governance and Stakeholder Engagement: The Southeast Michigan Beacon Community Case Study

PubMed Central

Des Jardins, Terrisca R.

2014-01-01

Community-based health information exchanges (HIEs) and efforts to consolidate and house data are growing, given the advent of Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) under the Affordable Care Act and other similar population health focused initiatives. The Southeast Michigan Beacon Community (SEMBC) can be looked to as one case study that offers lessons learned, insights on challenges faced and accompanying workarounds related to governance and stakeholder engagement. The SEMBC case study employs an established Data Warehouse Governance Framework to identify and explain the necessary governance and stakeholder engagement components, particularly as they relate to community-wide data sharing and data warehouses or repositories. Perhaps the biggest lesson learned through the SEMBC experience is that community-based work is hard. It requires a great deal of community leadership, collaboration and resources. SEMBC found that organizational structure and guiding principles needed to be continually revisited and nurtured in order to build the relationships and trust needed among stakeholder organizations. SEMBC also found that risks and risk mitigation tactics presented challenges and opportunities at the outset and through the duration of the three year pilot period. Other communities across the country embarking on similar efforts need to consider realistic expectations about community data sharing infrastructures and the accompanying and necessary governance and stakeholder engagement fundamentals. PMID:25848612

Forecasting lionfish sources and sinks in the Atlantic: are Gulf of Mexico reef fisheries at risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, Matthew W.; Bernard, Andrea M.; Shivji, Mahmood S.

2017-03-01

Invasive lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles complex) now permeate the entire tropical western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, but lionfish abundance has been measured only in select locations in the field. Despite its rapid range expansion, a comprehensive meta-population analysis of lionfish `sources' and `sinks' and consequentially the invader's potential abundance and impacts on economically important, sympatric reef fishes have not been assessed. These data are urgently needed to spatially direct control efforts and to plan for and perhaps mitigate lionfish-caused damage. Here, we use a biophysical computer model to: (1) forecast larval lionfish sources and sinks that are also delineated as low to high lionfish `density zones' throughout their invaded range, and (2) assess the potential vulnerability of five grouper and snapper species— Epinephelus morio, Mycteroperca microlepis, Epinephelus flavolimbatus, Lutjanus campechanus, and Rhomboplites aurorubens—to lionfish within these density zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that the west Florida shelf and nearshore waters of Texas, USA, and Guyana, South America, function both as lionfish sources and sinks and should be a high priority for targeted lionfish control. Furthermore, of the five groupers and snappers studied, the high fishery value E. morio (red grouper) is the Gulf of Mexico species most at risk from lionfish. Lacking a comprehensive lionfish control policy, these risk exposure data inform managers where removals should be focused and demonstrate the risk to five sympatric native groupers and snappers in the Gulf of Mexico that may be susceptible to dense lionfish aggregations, should control efforts fail.

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

PubMed

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-François; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-10-01

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110-285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80-300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land would allow reducing the implied calorie loss by 65% when sticking to the initially estimated land use mitigation requirements, thereby limiting the impact on undernourishment to 20-75 million people, and storing significant amounts of carbon in soils.

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

2009-07-01

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

An Evidence Base for Human Spaceflight Risks in Wikipedia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundrot, Craig; Steil, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Pellis, Neal

2013-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is focused on understanding and mitigating thirty two risks to crew health and performance in exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The HRP has developed an evidence report for each of the risks. Most evidence reports are a brief review article describing the evidence related to a specified risk, written at a level appropriate for the scientifically educated, non-specialist reader. Each evidence report captured the current state of knowledge from both research and operations. Two limitations of the evidence reports have become apparent: 1) they are updated infrequently and 2) they do not take full advantage of the expertise available in other space agencies and in related fields of terrestrial research. Therefore, the HRP is experimenting with the use of Wikipedia articles as a repository for evidence. Wikipedia's accessibility to the international space flight community and researchers in related terrestrial fields creates the opportunity to generate a more timely and comprehensive evidence base. Initial Wikipedia articles were populated for seven risks using a subset of the information in the HRP-approved evidence reports: Fatigue and Sleep Loss, Treating An Ill or Injured Crew Member, Radiation Carcinogenesis, Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure, Renal Stone Formation, Team Cohesion, and Intervertebral Disc Damage. Since the initial articles were created, there have been additions to these Wikipedia articles, including content from sources outside the HRP, and editorial changes to the pages. We will report on the nature of the contributions made after the initial articles were created, the comprehensiveness of the resulting Wikipedia articles, and the effort required to maintain quality control of the content. The Wikipedia approach will also be compared to wiki efforts that exert more traditional editorial control of content prior to posting.