Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2011-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VAR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004). However, quantitative risk analysis is rarely utilized in DoD acquisition programs because the...quantitative assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost...Kindle version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com 83 Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

PubMed

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

2007-01-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

SHEDS-Multimedia Model Version 3 (a) Technical Manual; (b) User Guide; and (c) Executable File to Launch SAS Program and Install Model

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable models for assessing human exposures are important for understanding health risks from chemicals. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for multimedia, multi-route/pathway chemicals (SHEDS-Multimedia), developed by EPA’s Office of Research and Developm...

Assessment of radionuclide databases in CAP88 mainframe version 1.0 and Windows-based version 3.0.

PubMed

LaBone, Elizabeth D; Farfán, Eduardo B; Lee, Patricia L; Jannik, G Timothy; Donnelly, Elizabeth H; Foley, Trevor Q

2009-09-01

In this study the radionuclide databases for two versions of the Clean Air Act Assessment Package-1988 (CAP88) computer model were assessed in detail. CAP88 estimates radiation dose and the risk of health effects to human populations from radionuclide emissions to air. This program is used by several U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities to comply with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants regulations. CAP88 Mainframe, referred to as version 1.0 on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Web site (http://www.epa.gov/radiation/assessment/CAP88/), was the very first CAP88 version released in 1988. Some DOE facilities including the Savannah River Site still employ this version (1.0) while others use the more user-friendly personal computer Windows-based version 3.0 released in December 2007. Version 1.0 uses the program RADRISK based on International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 30 as its radionuclide database. Version 3.0 uses half-life, dose, and risk factor values based on Federal Guidance Report 13. Differences in these values could cause different results for the same input exposure data (same scenario), depending on which version of CAP88 is used. Consequently, the differences between the two versions are being assessed in detail at Savannah River National Laboratory. The version 1.0 and 3.0 database files contain 496 and 838 radionuclides, respectively, and though one would expect the newer version to include all the 496 radionuclides, 35 radionuclides are listed in version 1.0 that are not included in version 3.0. The majority of these has either extremely short or long half-lives or is no longer in production; however, some of the short-lived radionuclides might produce progeny of great interest at DOE sites. In addition, 122 radionuclides were found to have different half-lives in the two versions, with 21 over 3 percent different and 12 over 10 percent different.

Examining Equivalency of the Driver Risk Inventory Test Versions: Does It Matter Which Version I Use?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Degiorgio, Lisa

2015-01-01

Equivalency of test versions is often assumed by counselors and evaluators. This study examined two versions, paper-pencil and computer based, of the Driver Risk Inventory, a DUI/DWI (driving under the influence/driving while intoxicated) risk assessment. An overview of computer-based testing and standards for equivalency is also provided. Results…

Cross-cultural adaptation, content validation, and reliability of the Nigerian Composite Lifestyle CVD Risk Factors Questionnaire for adolescents among Yoruba rural adolescents in Nigeria.

PubMed

Odunaiya, Nse A; Louw, Quinette A; Grimmer, Karen

2017-06-01

Assessment of lifestyle risk factors must be culturally- and contextually relevant and available in local languages. This paper reports on a study which aimed to cross culturally adapt a composite lifestyle cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors questionnaire into an African language (Yoruba) and testing some of its psychometric properties such as content validity and test retest reliability in comparison to the original English version. This study utilized a cross sectional design. Translation of the English version of the questionnaire into Yoruba was undertaken using the guideline by Beaton et al. The translated instrument was presented to 21 rural adolescents to assess comprehensibility and clarity using a sample of convenience. A test retest reliability was conducted among 150 rural adolescents using a purposive sampling. Data was analyzed using intraclass correlation (ICC ) model 3, Cohen kappa statistics and prevalence rates. ICC ranged between 0.4-0.8. The Yoruba version was completed 15-20 minutes and was reported to be culturally appropriate and acceptable for rural Nigerian adolescents. The Yoruba translation of the Nigerian composite lifestyle risk factors questionnaire performs at least as well as the original English version in terms of content validity and reliability. It took a shorter time to complete therefore may be more relevant to rural adolescents.

Version 3 of the historical-clinical-risk management-20 (HCR-20V3): relevance to violence risk assessment and management in forensic conditional release contexts.

PubMed

Douglas, Kevin S

2014-09-01

The conditional release of insanity acquittees requires decisions both about community risk level and the contextual factors that may mitigate or aggravate risk. This article discusses the potential role of the newly revised Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20, Version 3) within the conditional release context. A brief review of the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach to violence risk assessment and management is provided. Version 2 of the HCR-20, which has been broadly adopted and evaluated, is briefly described. New features of Version 3 of the HCR-20 with particular relevance to conditional release decision-making are reviewed, including: item indicators; ratings of the relevance of risk factors to an individual's violence; risk formulation; scenario planning; and risk management planning. Version 3 of the HCR-20 includes a number of features that should assist evaluators and decision-makers to determine risk level, as well as to anticipate and specify community conditions and contexts that may mitigate or aggravate risk. Research on the HCR-20 Version 3 using approximately 800 participants across three settings (forensic psychiatric, civil psychiatric, correctional) and eight countries is reviewed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM)--cutting edge software for rapid insect and disease risk model development

Treesearch

Frank J. Krist

2010-01-01

The Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) of the U.S. Forest Service is leading an effort to produce the next version of the National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM) for targeted release in 2011. The goal of this effort is to update spatial depictions of risk of tree mortality based on: (1) newly derived 240-m geospatial information depicting the...

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Atmospheric pathway formulations. Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

1996-03-01

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) is an integrated software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models for health and environmental risk assessments of both radioactive and hazardous pollutants. This atmospheric component report is one of a series of formulation reports that document the MEPAS mathematical models. MEPAS is a multimedia model; pollutant transport is modeled within, through, and between multiple media (air, soil, groundwater, and surface water). The estimated concentrations in the various media are used to compute exposures and impacts to the environment, to maximum individuals, and to populations. The MEPAS atmospheric component for the air mediamore » documented in this report includes models for emission from a source to the air, initial plume rise and dispersion, airborne pollutant transport and dispersion, and deposition to soils and crops. The material in this report is documentation for MEPAS Versions 3.0 and 3.1 and the MEPAS version used in the Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS) Version 1.0.« less

Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data.

PubMed

Madsen, Thomas; Braun, Danielle; Peng, Gang; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Trippa, Lorenzo

2018-06-25

The Elston-Stewart peeling algorithm enables estimation of an individual's probability of harboring germline risk alleles based on pedigree data, and serves as the computational backbone of important genetic counseling tools. However, it remains limited to the analysis of risk alleles at a small number of genetic loci because its computing time grows exponentially with the number of loci considered. We propose a novel, approximate version of this algorithm, dubbed the peeling and paring algorithm, which scales polynomially in the number of loci. This allows extending peeling-based models to include many genetic loci. The algorithm creates a trade-off between accuracy and speed, and allows the user to control this trade-off. We provide exact bounds on the approximation error and evaluate it in realistic simulations. Results show that the loss of accuracy due to the approximation is negligible in important applications. This algorithm will improve genetic counseling tools by increasing the number of pathogenic risk alleles that can be addressed. To illustrate we create an extended five genes version of BRCAPRO, a widely used model for estimating the carrier probabilities of BRCA1 and BRCA2 risk alleles and assess its computational properties. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination (Open Access Publisher’s Version)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-14

2014. [24] “United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision,” http...Research Article Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination Colleen Burgess,1,2 Andrew Burgess,2 and...for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy

Developing a short measure of organizational justice: a multisample health professionals study.

PubMed

Elovainio, Marko; Heponiemi, Tarja; Kuusio, Hannamaria; Sinervo, Timo; Hintsa, Taina; Aalto, Anna-Mari

2010-11-01

To develop and test the validity of a short version of the original questionnaire measuring organizational justice. The study samples comprised working physicians (N = 2792) and registered nurses (n = 2137) from the Finnish Health Professionals study. Structural equation modelling was applied to test structural validity, using the justice scales. Furthermore, criterion validity was explored with well-being (sleeping problems) and health indicators (psychological distress/self-rated health). The short version of the organizational justice questionnaire (eight items) provides satisfactory psychometric properties (internal consistency, a good model fit of the data). All scales were associated with an increased risk of sleeping problems and psychological distress, indicating satisfactory criterion validity. This short version of the organizational justice questionnaire provides a useful tool for epidemiological studies focused on health-adverse effects of work environment.

Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Michael D.; Cooke, William J.; Williamsen, Joel; Kessler, Donald; Vesely, William E.; Hull, Scott H.; Schonberg, William; Peterson, Glenn E.; Jenkin, Alan B.; Cornford, Steven L.

2015-01-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Project requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conduct an independent evaluation of the Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) models used in the latest JPSS MMOD risk assessment. The principal focus of the assessment was to compare Orbital Debris Engineering Model version 3 (ORDEM 3.0) with the Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference version 2009 (MASTER-2009) and Aerospace Debris Environment Projection Tool (ADEPT) and provide recommendations to the JPSS Project regarding MMOD protection. The outcome of the NESC assessment is contained in this report.

SIMULATING URBAN AIR TOXICS OVER CONTINENTAL AND URBAN SCALES

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA is evaluating a version of the CMAQ model to support risk assessment for the exposure to Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs). The model uses a variant of the CB4 chemical mechanism to simulate ambient concentrations of twenty HAPs that exist primarily as gaseous compounds...

Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) for Acute Toxicity: User Manual Version 3.1

EPA Science Inventory

Predictive toxicological models are integral to ecological risk assessment because data for most species are limited. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) models are least square regressions that predict acute toxicity (LC50/LD50) of a chemical to a species, ge...

Neural network model for growth of Salmonella serotypes in ground chicken subjected to temperature abuse during cold storage for application in HACCP and risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With the advent of commercial software applications, it is now easy to develop neural network models for predictive microbiology applications. However, different versions of the model may be required to meet the divergent needs of model users. In the current study, the commercial software applicat...

Timing of delivery after external cephalic version and the risk for cesarean delivery.

PubMed

Kabiri, Doron; Elram, Tamar; Aboo-Dia, Mushira; Elami-Suzin, Matan; Elchalal, Uriel; Ezra, Yossef

2011-08-01

To estimate the association between time of delivery after external cephalic version at term and the risk for cesarean delivery. This retrospective cohort study included all successful external cephalic versions performed in a tertiary center between January 1997 and January 2010. Stepwise logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) for cesarean delivery. We included 483 external cephalic versions in this study, representing 53.1% of all external cephalic version attempts. The incidence of cesarean delivery for 139 women (29%) who gave birth less than 96 hours from external cephalic version was 16.5%; for 344 women (71%) who gave birth greater than 96 hours from external cephalic version, the incidence of cesarean delivery was 7.8% (P = .004). The adjusted OR for cesarean delivery was 2.541 (95% confidence interval 1.36-4.72). When stratified by parity, the risk for cesarean delivery when delivery occurred less than 96 hours after external cephalic version was 2.97 and 2.28 for nulliparous and multiparous women, respectively. Delivery at less than 96 hours after successful external cephalic version was associated with an increased risk for cesarean delivery. III.

HyRAM V1.0 User Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Zumwalt, Hannah Ruth; Clark, Andrew Jordan

2016-03-01

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) is a prototype software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards, including thermal effects from jet fires and thermal pressure effects from deflagration. HyRAM version 1.0 incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of various aspects of gaseous hydrogen releasemore » and flame physics. This document provides an example of how to use HyRAM to conduct analysis of a fueling facility. This document will guide users through the software and how to enter and edit certain inputs that are specific to the user-defined facility. Description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM is provided in [1]. This User’s Guide is intended to capture the main features of HyRAM version 1.0 (any HyRAM version numbered as 1.0.X.XXX). This user guide was created with HyRAM 1.0.1.798. Due to ongoing software development activities, newer versions of HyRAM may have differences from this guide.« less

Quick Fix for Managing Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Under a Phase II SBIR contract, Kennedy and Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., jointly developed the Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Modeling (SCRAM) system, based on a version of Lumina's flagship software product, Analytica(R). Acclaimed as "the best single decision-analysis program yet produced" by MacWorld magazine, Analytica is a "visual" tool used in decision-making environments worldwide to build, revise, and present business models, minus the time-consuming difficulty commonly associated with spreadsheets. With Analytica as their platform, Kennedy and Lumina created the SCRAM system in response to NASA's need to identify the importance of major delays in Shuttle ground processing, a critical function in project management and process improvement. As part of the SCRAM development project, Lumina designed a version of Analytica called the Analytica Design Engine (ADE) that can be easily incorporated into larger software systems. ADE was commercialized and utilized in many other developments, including web-based decision support.

Development of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

The space radiation environment, particularly solar particle events (SPEs), poses the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to humans; and organ doses from SPE exposure may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or within lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUMDOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE, written in FORTRAN, are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The ARR code is written in C. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in friendly way. A GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept example for future integration of other human space applications risk projection models. The current version of the ARRBOD GUI is a new self-contained product and will have follow-on versions, as options are added: 1) human geometries of MAX/FAX in addition to CAM/CAF; 2) shielding distributions for spacecraft, Mars surface and atmosphere; 3) various space environmental and biophysical models; and 4) other response models to be connected to the BRYNTRN. The major components of the overall system, the subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces are described in this report; and the ARRBOD GUI product is explained step by step in order to serve as a tutorial.

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

PubMed

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

[German Language Version and Validation of the Risk-Taking Behaviour Scale (RBS-K) for High-Risk Sports].

PubMed

Frühauf, Anika; Niedermeier, Martin; Ruedl, Gerhard; Barlow, Matthew; Woodman, Tim; Kopp, Martin

2017-11-23

Background  High-risk sports, particularly climbing, kayaking and extreme skiing, have become increasingly popular. The most widely used psychological survey instrument with regard to risk behaviour in sports is the Sensation Seeking Model, mostly assessed by the Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS-V). Until recently, the literature discussed risk behaviour solely through this model. However, this scale does not measure risk-taking behaviours. In contrast, the Risk-Taking Behaviour Scale (RBS-K) is a three-item scale that measures risk behaviour in high-risk sports. This study aimed to validate a German language version of the RBS-K. Methods  The RBS-K was translated and back-translated between English and German. High-risk sports participants (n = 2399) completed the German version of the RBS-K. Of those participants, 820 completed the RBS-K in person as part of a field survey and 1579 participated in an online survey. To validate the questionnaire, the SSS-V, accident involvement, age and sex were evaluated. The RBS-K divides the sample into deliberate risk takers (mean + standard deviation) and risk-averse persons (mean - standard deviation). We tested for internal consistency and correlations with SSS-V, age, sex and accident involvement. Group differences were calculated between deliberate risk takers and risk-averse persons. Results  For internal consistency, we obtained a Cronbach's alpha of 0.56 and a McDonald's omega of 0.63. Significant correlations were shown between RBS-K and SSS-V as well as age and sex. Compared to risk-averse persons (n = 643, 26.8 %), deliberate risk takers (n = 319, 13.3 %) scored significantly higher in sensation seeking, were significantly younger and primarily male and had a significantly higher accident involvement. Conclusion  The RBS-K discriminates well for age, sex and accident involvement. Also, correlations between the RBS-K and the well-established SSS-V are acceptable. With regard to the results and its compact design, the scale seems to be well suited for field surveys. We discuss the relatively modest internal consistency in the context of the small number of items and the different dimensions of risk-taking. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Three multimedia models used at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; Fthenakis, V.M.

1996-02-01

Multimedia models are used commonly in the initial phases of the remediation process where technical interest is focused on determining the relative importance of various exposure pathways. This report provides an approach for evaluating and critically reviewing the capabilities of multimedia models. This study focused on three specific models MEPAS Version 3.0, MMSOILS Version 2.2, and PRESTO-EPA-CPG Version 2.0. These models evaluate the transport and fate of contaminants from source to receptor through more than a single pathway. The presence of radioactive and mixed wastes at a site poses special problems. Hence, in this report, restrictions associated with the selectionmore » and application of multimedia models for sites contaminated with radioactive and mixed wastes are highlighted. This report begins with a brief introduction to the concept of multimedia modeling, followed by an overview of the three models. The remaining chapters present more technical discussions of the issues associated with each compartment and their direct application to the specific models. In these analyses, the following components are discussed: source term; air transport; ground water transport; overland flow, runoff, and surface water transport; food chain modeling; exposure assessment; dosimetry/risk assessment; uncertainty; default parameters. The report concludes with a description of evolving updates to the model; these descriptions were provided by the model developers.« less

A short generic measure of work stress in the era of globalization: effort-reward imbalance.

PubMed

Siegrist, Johannes; Wege, Natalia; Pühlhofer, Frank; Wahrendorf, Morten

2009-08-01

We evaluate psychometric properties of a short version of the original effort-reward imbalance (ERI) questionnaire. This measure is of interest in the context of assessing stressful work conditions in the era of economic globalization. In a representative sample of 10,698 employed men and women participating in the longitudinal Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in Germany, a short version of the ERI questionnaire was included in the 2006 panel wave. Structural equation modeling and logistic regression analysis were applied. In addition to satisfactory internal consistency of scales, a model representing the theoretical structure of the scales provided the best data fit in a competitive test (RMSEA = 0.059, CAIC = 4124.19). Scoring high on the ERI scales was associated with elevated risks of poor self-rated health. This short version of the ERI questionnaire reveals satisfactory psychometric properties, and can be recommended for further use in research and practice.

Response to Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s ten questions pertaining to site-specific models for use in the license termination rule: Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buck, J.W.; Whelan, G.; Strenge, D.L.

This paper is in response to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) ten questions posed at the Modeling Workshop held November 13 and 14, 1997. The ten questions were developed in advance of the workshop to allow model developers to prepare a presentation at the Workshop. This paper is an expanded version of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) presentation given at the Modeling Workshop by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) staff. This paper is organized by the ten questions asked by the NRC, each section devoted to a single question. The current version of methodology is MEPAS 3.2more » (NRC 1997) and the discussion in this paper will pertain to that version. In some cases, MEPAS 4.0, which is currently being developed under the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) (Whelan et al. 1997), will be referenced to inform the reader of potential capabilities in the near future. A separate paper is included in the document that discusses the FRAMES concept.« less

Breast Cancer Risk in American Women

MedlinePlus

... September 7, 2012. Related Resources BRCA Mutations: Cancer Risk and Genetic Testing Breast Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)–Patient Version Diethylstilbestrol (DES) and Cancer Genetics of Breast and Gynecologic Cancers (PDQ®)–Health Professional Version Mammograms Reproductive History and Cancer Risk ...

Graphical approach to assess the soil fertility evaluation model validity for rice (case study: southern area of Merapi Mountain, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julianto, E. A.; Suntoro, W. A.; Dewi, W. S.; Partoyo

2018-03-01

Climate change has been reported to exacerbate land resources degradation including soil fertility decline. The appropriate validity use on soil fertility evaluation could reduce the risk of climate change effect on plant cultivation. This study aims to assess the validity of a Soil Fertility Evaluation Model using a graphical approach. The models evaluated were the Indonesian Soil Research Center (PPT) version model, the FAO Unesco version model, and the Kyuma version model. Each model was then correlated with rice production (dry grain weight/GKP). The goodness of fit of each model can be tested to evaluate the quality and validity of a model, as well as the regression coefficient (R2). This research used the Eviews 9 programme by a graphical approach. The results obtained three curves, namely actual, fitted, and residual curves. If the actual and fitted curves are widely apart or irregular, this means that the quality of the model is not good, or there are many other factors that are still not included in the model (large residual) and conversely. Indeed, if the actual and fitted curves show exactly the same shape, it means that all factors have already been included in the model. Modification of the standard soil fertility evaluation models can improve the quality and validity of a model.

A Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends

PubMed Central

Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A.; Wolf, Philip A.; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J.; Himali, Jayandra J.; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J.; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S.; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

2017-01-01

Background Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely due to changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (Old), and of a revised (New) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke, and validated this new FSRP in two external cohorts, the 3 Cities (3C) and REGARDS studies. Methods We computed the old FSRP as originally described, and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factors' prevalence and hazard-ratios for persons ≥ 55 years and for the subsample ≥ 65 years (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies respectively), and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. Results The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all three samples than the old FSRP (Calibration chi-squares of new/old FSRP: in men 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6 and 20.7/12.5; in women 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3 and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared to blacks. Conclusions A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. PMID:28159800

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends.

PubMed

Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A; Wolf, Philip A; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J; Himali, Jayandra J; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

2017-03-21

Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely as a result of changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (old) and of a revised (new) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke and validated this new FSRP in 2 external cohorts, the 3C (3 Cities) and REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) studies. We computed the old FSRP as originally described and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factor prevalence and hazard ratios for individuals ≥55 years of age and for the subsample ≥65 years of age (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies, respectively) and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all 3 samples than the old FSRP (calibration χ 2 of new/old FSRP: in men: 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6, and 20.7/12.5; in women: 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3, and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS, and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared with blacks. A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Capability and Development Risk Management in System-of-Systems Architectures: A Portfolio Approach to Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

tool that provides a means of balancing capability development against cost and interdependent risks through the use of modern portfolio theory ...Focardi, 2007; Tutuncu & Cornuejols, 2007) that are extensions of modern portfolio and control theory . The reformulation allows for possible changes...Acquisition: Wave Model context • An Investment Portfolio Approach – Mean Variance Approach – Mean - Variance : A Robust Version • Concept

A Shortened Version of the Suicide Cognitions Scale for Identifying Chronic Pain Patients at Risk for Suicide.

PubMed

Bryan, Craig J; Kanzler, Kathryn E; Grieser, Emily; Martinez, Annette; Allison, Sybil; McGeary, Donald

2017-03-01

Research in psychiatric outpatient and inpatient populations supports the utility of the Suicide Cognitions Scale (SCS) as an indicator of current and future risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Designed to assess suicide-specific thoughts and beliefs, the SCS has yet to be evaluated among chronic pain patients, a group with elevated risk for suicide. The purpose of the present study was to develop and test a shortened version of the SCS (the SCS-S). A total of 228 chronic pain patients completed a battery of self-report surveys before or after a scheduled appointment. Three outpatient medical clinics (pain medicine, orofacial pain, and clinical health psychology). Confirmatory factor analysis, multivariate regression, and graded item response theory model analyses. Results of the CFAs suggested that a 3-factor solution was optimal. A shortened 9-item scale was identified based on the results of graded item response theory model analyses. Correlation and multivariate analyses supported the construct and incremental validity of the SCS-S. Results support the reliability and validity of the SCS-S among chronic pain patients, and suggest the scale may be a useful method for identifying high-risk patients in medical settings. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.

Racial Differences in Risk-Taking Propensity on the Youth Version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART-Y)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collado, Anahi; Risco, Cristina M.; Banducci, Anne N.; Chen, Kevin W.; MacPherson, Laura; Lejuez, Carl W.

2017-01-01

Research indicates that White adolescents tend to engage in greater levels of risk behavior relative to Black adolescents. To better understand these differences, the current study examined real-time changes in risk-taking propensity (RTP). The study utilized the Balloon Analogue Risk Task-Youth Version (BART-Y), a well-validated real-time,…

Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David G. Hoel, PhD

2012-04-19

The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival functionmore » and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact that the research project did not continue beyond its first year.« less

Ex-ORISKANY Artificial Reef Project: Ecological Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-25

preferences used by PRAM and the Trophic Level determined by diet for each compartment modeled in the food chain...grouping organisms according to their habitat and diet preferences , PRAM also provided output to evaluate exposure point concentrations for the pelagic...dietary preferences used by PRAM (version 1.4C) and the Trophic Level determined by diet for each compartment modeled in the food chain. PRAM Default

Validation of an abbreviated version of the Denver HIV risk score for prediction of HIV infection in an urban ED.

PubMed

Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; Haukoos, Jason S; Rothman, Richard E

2014-07-01

We sought to evaluate the performance of an abbreviated version of the Denver HIV Risk Score in 2 urban emergency departments (ED) with known high undiagnosed HIV prevalence. We performed a secondary analysis of data collected prospectively between November 2005 and December 2009 as part of an ED-based nontargeted rapid HIV testing program from 2 sites. Demographics; HIV testing history; injection drug use; and select high-risk sexual behaviors, including men who have sex with men, were collected by standardized interview. Information regarding receptive anal intercourse and vaginal intercourse was either not collected or collected inconsistently and was thus omitted from the model to create its abbreviated version. The study cohort included 15184 patients with 114 (0.75%) newly diagnosed with HIV infection. HIV prevalence was 0.41% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21%-0.71%) for those with a score less than 20, 0.29% (95% CI, 0.14%-0.52%) for those with a score of 20 to 29, 0.65% (95% CI, 0.48%-0.87%) for those with a score of 30 to 39, 2.38% (95% CI, 1.68%-3.28%) for those with a score of 40 to 49, and 4.57% (95% CI, 2.09%-8.67%) for those with a score of 50 or higher. External validation resulted in good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.71-0.79). The calibration regression slope was 0.92 and its R(2) was 0.78. An abbreviated version of the Denver HIV Risk Score had comparable performance to that reported previously, offering a promising alternative strategy for HIV screening in the ED where limited sexual risk behavior information may be obtainable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

UPDATE A COMPUTER MODEL, TITLED GENII-NESHAPS VERSION 2, FOR EVALUATING ATMOSPHERIC RELEASES OF RADIONUCLIDES.

EPA Science Inventory

The GENII System provides a state-of-the-art, fully documented set of programs for calculating radiation dose and risk from radionuclides released to the environment. The GENII-NESHAPs Edition can be utilized for assessing compliance with 40 CFR 61, Subparts H and I.

E-Content: Opportunity and Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waggener, Shel

2012-01-01

For years people have seen scholarly journals shift from paper to electronic versions. Today the e-reader platforms are improving at a rapid rate, prices for devices are plummeting, the e-content is becoming richer and more interactive, and the content publishers are developing capitalistic business models to respond to this disruptive technology.…

Quality Assurance Testing of Version 1.3 of U.S. EPA Benchmark Dose Software (Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA benchmark dose software (BMDS) issued to evaluate chemical dose-response data in support of Agency risk assessments, and must therefore be dependable. Quality assurance testing methods developed for BMDS were designed to assess model dependability with respect to curve-fitt...

Factors Influencing Physical Activity among Postpartum Iranian Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roozbahani, Nasrin; Ghofranipour, Fazlollah; Eftekhar Ardabili, Hassan; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim

2014-01-01

Background: Postpartum women are a population at risk for sedentary living. Physical activity (PA) prior to pregnancy may be effective in predicting similar behaviour in the postpartum period. Objective: To test a composite version of the extended transtheoretical model (TTM) by adding "past behaviour" in order to predict PA behaviour…

The probabilistic nature of preferential choice.

PubMed

Rieskamp, Jörg

2008-11-01

Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes different choices in nearly identical situations, or why the magnitude of these inconsistencies varies in different situations. To illustrate the advantage of probabilistic theories, three probabilistic theories of decision making under risk are compared with their deterministic counterparts. The probabilistic theories are (a) a probabilistic version of a simple choice heuristic, (b) a probabilistic version of cumulative prospect theory, and (c) decision field theory. By testing the theories with the data from three experimental studies, the superiority of the probabilistic models over their deterministic counterparts in predicting people's decisions under risk become evident. When testing the probabilistic theories against each other, decision field theory provides the best account of the observed behavior.

A new risk prediction model for critical care: the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Short, Alasdair; Rowan, Kathy

2007-04-01

To develop a new model to improve risk prediction for admissions to adult critical care units in the UK. Prospective cohort study. The setting was 163 adult, general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, December 1995 to August 2003. Patients were 216,626 critical care admissions. None. The performance of different approaches to modeling physiologic measurements was evaluated, and the best methods were selected to produce a new physiology score. This physiology score was combined with other information relating to the critical care admission-age, diagnostic category, source of admission, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation before admission-to develop a risk prediction model. Modeling interactions between diagnostic category and physiology score enabled the inclusion of groups of admissions that are frequently excluded from risk prediction models. The new model showed good discrimination (mean c index 0.870) and fit (mean Shapiro's R 0.665, mean Brier's score 0.132) in 200 repeated validation samples and performed well when compared with recalibrated versions of existing published risk prediction models in the cohort of patients eligible for all models. The hypothesis of perfect fit was rejected for all models, including the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model, as is to be expected in such a large cohort. The ICNARC model demonstrated better discrimination and overall fit than existing risk prediction models, even following recalibration of these models. We recommend it be used to replace previously published models for risk adjustment in the UK.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Validity and Reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version: Assessing Sex Offender Risk and Evaluating Therapeutic Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olver, Mark E.; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Nicholaichuk, Terry; Gordon, Audrey

2007-01-01

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual…

SU-E-J-101: Retroactive Calculation of TLD and Film Dose in Anthropomorphic Phantom as Assessment of Updated TPS Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alkhatib, H; Oves, S

Purpose: To demonstrate a quick and comprehensive method verifying the accuracy of the updated dose model by recalculating dose distribution in an anthropomorphic phantom with a new version of the TPS and comparing the results to measured values. Methods: CT images and IMRT plan of an RPC anthropomorphic head phantom, previously calculated by Pinnacle 9.0, was re-computed using Pinnacle 9.2 and 9.6. The dosimeters within the phantom include four TLD capsules representing a primary PTV, two TLD capsules representing a secondary PTV, and two TLD capsules representing an organ at risk. Also included were three sheets of Gafchromic film. Performancemore » of the updated TPS version was assessed by recalculating point doses and dose profiles corresponding to TLD and film position respectively and then comparing the results to reported values by the RPC. Results: Comparing calculated doses to reported measured doses from the RPC yielded an average disagreement of 1.48%, 2.04% and 2.10% for versions 9.0, 9.2, 9.6 respectively. Computed doses points all meet the RPC's passing criteria with the exception of the point representing the superior organ at risk in version 9.6. However, qualitative analysis of the recalculated dose profiles showed improved agreement with those of the RPC, especially in the penumbra region. Conclusion: This work has demonstrated the calculation results of Pinnacle 9.2 and 9.6 vs 9.0 version. Additionally, this study illustrates a method for the user to gain confidence upgrade to a newer version of the treatment planning system.« less

Fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version.

PubMed

Boucher, Marc; Marquette, Gerald P; Varin, Jocelyne; Champagne, Josette; Bujold, Emmanuel

2008-07-01

To estimate the frequency and volume of fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version for term breech singleton fetuses and to identify risk factors involved with this complication. A prospective observational study was performed including all patients undergoing a trial of external cephalic version for a breech presentation of at least 36 weeks of gestation between 1987 and 2001 in our center. A search for fetal erythrocytes using the standard Kleihauer-Betke test was obtained before and after each external cephalic version. The frequency and volume of fetomaternal hemorrhage were calculated. Putative risk factors for fetomaternal hemorrhage were evaluated by chi(2) test and Mann-Whitney U test. A Kleihauer-Betke test result was available before and after 1,311 trials of external cephalic version. The Kleihauer-Betke test was positive in 67 (5.1%) before the procedure. Of the 1,244 women with a negative Kleihauer-Betke test before external cephalic version, 30 (2.4%) had a positive Kleihauer-Betke test after the procedure. Ten (0.8%) had an estimated fetomaternal hemorrhage greater than 1 mL, and one (0.08%) had an estimated fetomaternal hemorrhage greater than 30 mL. The risk of fetomaternal hemorrhage was not influenced by parity, gestational age, body mass index, number of attempts at version, placental location, or amniotic fluid index. The risk of detectable fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version was 2.4%, with fetomaternal hemorrhage more than 30 mL in less than 0.1% of cases. These data suggest that the performance of a Kleihauer-Betke test is unwarranted in uneventful external cephalic version and that in Rh-negative women, no further Rh immune globulin is necessary other than the routine 300-microgram dose at 28 weeks of gestation and postpartum. II.

Lessons learned from a single institution's retrospective analysis of emergent cesarean delivery following external cephalic version with and without neuraxial anesthesia.

PubMed

Ainsworth, A; Sviggum, H P; Tolcher, M C; Weaver, A L; Holman, M A; Arendt, K W

2017-05-01

To evaluate the risk of emergent cesarean delivery with the use of neuraxial anesthesia for external cephalic version in a single practice. Randomized trials have shown increased external cephalic version success when neuraxial anesthesia is used, without additional risk. We hypothesized that in our actual clinical practice, outside the confines of randomized trials, neuraxial anesthesia could be associated with an increased risk of emergent cesarean delivery. This retrospective cohort study included all women who underwent external cephalic version at a single institution with and without neuraxial anesthesia. The primary outcome was the incidence of emergent cesarean delivery (defined as delivery within 4hours of version). Secondary outcomes were version success and ultimate mode of delivery. A total of 135 women underwent external cephalic version procedures; 58 with neuraxial anesthesia (43.0%) and 77 without (57.0%). Location of the procedure, tocolytic therapy, and gestational age were different between groups. An increased rate of emergent cesarean delivery was found in procedures with neuraxial anesthesia compared to procedures without (5/58 (8.6%) compared to 0/77 (0.0%); 95% CI for difference, 1.4 to 15.8%; P=0.013). In this single hospital's practice, patients who may be at higher risk of complications and have a lesser likelihood of success were provided NA for ECV. As a result, the use of neuraxial anesthesia for external cephalic version was associated with a higher rate of emergent cesarean delivery. Obstetric and anesthetic practices should evaluate their patient selection and procedure protocol for external cephalic version under neuraxial anesthesia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

2014-01-01

As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

The risks and rewards of speed: Restorative retelling compressed into a three-day retreat.

PubMed

Blakley, Theresa; Mehr, Nita; Jordan, Donald

2018-01-01

This article chronicles the process of reducing the 10 week restorative retelling (RR) group model (Rynearson & Correa, Accommodation to violent dying: A guide to restorative retelling and support, Violent Death Bereavement Society, 2006) into a 3 day retreat for families of homicide loss. Strategies used to address the intensity of the condensed version of the treatment model are described for both the participants and treatment team. The twists and turns of how the therapeutic retreat unfolded are presented through case examples. The authors explicate the risks and rewards of conducting the RR model at speed, identify the challenges they faced, and give impressions for overall treatment efficacy.

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

2014-05-01

This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

FEES: design of a Fire Economics Evaluation System

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

The Fire Economics Evaluation System (FEES)--a simulation model--is being designed for long-term planning application by all public agencies with wildland fire management responsibilities. A fully operational version of FEES will be capable of estimating the economic efficiency, fire-induced changes in resource outputs, and risk characteristics of a range of fire...

ATTACHMENT AS A PREDICTOR OF RISK FOR EATING DISORDERS ON A REPRESENTATIVE HUNGARIAN ADULT SAMPLE.

PubMed

Szalai, Tamás Dömötör; Czeglédi, Edit

2015-11-30

Many studies confirm the relationship between attachment disturbances and (the severity of) eating disorders, however among them only one Hungarian study can be found. The exact predisposing traits of attachment and the strength of relationship is still uncleared. Our aim was to explore these aspects. Study was based on a cross-sectional nationally representative survey, called "Hungarostudy 2013" (N = 2000, 46.9% males, mean age 46.9 years, SD = 18.24 years). Measures: Sociodemographic and self-reported anthropometric data (weight and height), short Hungarian version of Relationship Scale Questionnaire, SCOFF questionnaire and short Hungarian version of Beck Depression Inventory. The frequency of risk for eating disorders (anorexia or bulimia nervosa) was 3.9% (N = 76) among the respondents (N = 1860). Attachment anxiety was significantly higher in the risk for eating disorders group (t (1888) = -3.939, p < 0.001), and significantly predicted the risk or eating disorders after adjusting for the potential background variables (OR = 1.09, p = 0.040). Detachment was not a significant predictor of risk for eating disorders (OR = 0.98, p = 0.515). Younger age (OR = 0.97, p < 0.001), higher level of depression (OR = 1.09, p < 0.001) and higher body mass index (OR = 1.08, p < 0.001) were also significant cross-sectional predictors of risk for eating disorders. The explained variance of the model was 10.7%. The study supported, that higher attachment anxiety is associated with the increased risk of eating disorders, with a possible therapeutic relevance. Assessment of attachment's further aspects and creating multivariable models are required for more thorough understanding and optimising of intervention points.

Metric properties of the "timed get up and go- modified version" test, in risk assessment of falls in active women

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective: To analyse the metric properties of the Timed Get up and Go-Modified Version Test (TGUGM), in risk assessment of falls in a group of physically active women. Methods: A sample was constituted by 202 women over 55 years of age, were assessed through a crosssectional study. The TGUGM was applied to assess their fall risk. The test was analysed by comparison of the qualitative and quantitative information and by factor analysis. The development of a logistic regression model explained the risk of falls according to the test components. Results: The TGUGM was useful for assessing the risk of falls in the studied group. The test revealed two factors: the Get Up and the Gait with dual task. Less than twelve points in the evaluation or runtimes higher than 35 seconds was associated with high risk of falling. More than 35 seconds in the test indicated a risk fall probability greater than 0.50. Also, scores less than 12 points were associated with a delay of 7 seconds more in the execution of the test (p= 0.0016). Conclusions: Factor analysis of TGUGM revealed two dimensions that can be independent predictors of risk of falling: The Get up that explains between 64% and 87% of the risk of falling, and the Gait with dual task, that explains between 77% and 95% of risk of falling. PMID:28559642

Fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and possible risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Moayeri, Ardeshir; Mohamadpour, Mahmoud; Mousavi, Seyedeh Fatemeh; Shirzadpour, Ehsan; Mohamadpour, Safoura; Amraei, Mansour

2017-01-01

Aim Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk of bone fractures. A variable increase in fracture risk has been reported depending on skeletal site, diabetes duration, study design, insulin use, and so on. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between T2DM with fracture risk and possible risk factors. Methods Different databases including PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information, and Scopus were searched up to May 2016. All epidemiologic studies on the association between T2DM and fracture risk were included. The relevant data obtained from these papers were analyzed by a random effects model and publication bias was assessed by funnel plot. All analyses were done by R software (version 3.2.1) and STATA (version 11.1). Results Thirty eligible studies were selected for the meta-analysis. We found a statistically significant positive association between T2DM and hip, vertebral, or foot fractures and no association between T2DM and wrist, proximal humerus, or ankle fractures. Overall, T2DM was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (summary relative risk =1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.06) and increased with age, duration of diabetes, and insulin therapy. Conclusion Our findings strongly support an association between T2DM and increased risk of overall fracture. These findings emphasize the need for fracture prevention strategies in patients with diabetes. PMID:28442913

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

Validating the Hamilton Anatomy of Risk Management-Forensic Version and the Aggressive Incidents Scale.

PubMed

Cook, Alana N; Moulden, Heather M; Mamak, Mini; Lalani, Shams; Messina, Katrina; Chaimowitz, Gary

2018-06-01

The Hamilton Anatomy of Risk Management-Forensic Version (HARM-FV) is a structured professional judgement tool of violence risk developed for use in forensic inpatient psychiatric settings. The HARM-FV is used with the Aggressive Incidents Scale (AIS), which provides a standardized method of recording aggressive incidents. We report the findings of the concurrent validity of the HARM-FV and the AIS with widely used measures of violence risk and aggressive acts, the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20, Version 3 (HCR-20 V3 ) and a modified version of the Overt Aggression Scale. We also present findings on the predictive validity of the HARM-FV in the short term (1-month follow-up periods) for varying severities of aggressive acts. The results indicated strong support for the concurrent validity of the HARM-FV and AIS and promising support for the predictive accuracy of the tool for inpatient aggression. This article provides support for the continued clinical use of the HARM-FV within an inpatient forensic setting and highlights areas for further research.

Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

2004-06-01

The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate andmore » transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.« less

Improving comprehension and recall of information for an HIV vaccine trial among women at risk for HIV: reading level simplification and inclusion of pictures to illustrate key concepts.

PubMed

Murphy, D A; O'Keefe, Z H; Kaufman, A H

1999-10-01

A simplified version of the prototype HIV vaccine material was developed through (a) reducing reading grade level, (b) restructuring of the organization and categorization of the material, (c) adding pictures designed to emphasize key concepts, and (d) obtaining feedback on the simplified version through focus groups with the target population. Low-income women at risk for HIV (N = 141) recruited from a primary care clinic were randomly assigned to be presented the standard or the simplified version. There were no significant differences between the groups in terms of education or Vocabulary, Block Design, and Passage Comprehension scores. Women who received the simplified version had significantly higher comprehension scores immediately following presentation of the material than did women who received the standard version and were also significantly more likely to recall study benefits and risks. These findings were maintained at 3-month follow-up. Implications for informed consent are discussed.

Climate change and forest trees in the Pacific Northwest: guide to vulnerability assessment methodology

Treesearch

W. Devine; C. Aubry; J. Miller; K. Potter; A. Bower

2012-01-01

This guide provides a step-by-step description of the methodology used to apply the Forest Tree Genetic Risk Assessment System (ForGRAS; Potter and Crane 2010) to the tree species of the Pacific Northwest in a recent climate change vulnerability assessment (Devine et al. 2012). We describe our modified version of the ForGRAS model, and we review the model’s basic...

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

2014-01-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Eliciting and Measuring Betrayal Aversion using the BDM Mechanism.

PubMed

Quercia, Simone

2016-05-01

Betrayal aversion has been operationalized as the evidence that subjects demand a higher risk premium to take social risks compared to natural risks. This evidence has been first shown by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) using an adaptation of the Becker - DeGroot - Marschak mechanism (BDM, Becker et al. (1964)). We compare their implementation of the BDM mechanism with a new version designed to facilitate subjects' comprehension. We find that, although the two versions produce different distributions of values, the size of betrayal aversion, measured as an average treatment difference between social and natural risk settings, is not different across the two versions. We further show that our implementation is preferable to use in practice as it reduces substantially subjects' mistakes and the likelihood of noisy valuations.

An improved risk-explicit interval linear programming model for pollution load allocation for watershed management.

PubMed

Xia, Bisheng; Qian, Xin; Yao, Hong

2017-11-01

Although the risk-explicit interval linear programming (REILP) model has solved the problem of having interval solutions, it has an equity problem, which can lead to unbalanced allocation between different decision variables. Therefore, an improved REILP model is proposed. This model adds an equity objective function and three constraint conditions to overcome this equity problem. In this case, pollution reduction is in proportion to pollutant load, which supports balanced development between different regional economies. The model is used to solve the problem of pollution load allocation in a small transboundary watershed. Compared with the REILP original model result, our model achieves equity between the upstream and downstream pollutant loads; it also overcomes the problem of greatest pollution reduction, where sources are nearest to the control section. The model provides a better solution to the problem of pollution load allocation than previous versions.

Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK

PubMed Central

Patel, Naina; Stone, Margaret; Barber, Shaun; Gray, Laura; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

2016-01-01

Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers' ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions. PMID:27703985

Inter-rater reliability of the German version of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scale.

PubMed

Kozel, Bernd; Grieser, Manuela; Abderhalden, Christoph; Cutcliffe, John R

2016-10-01

In comparison to the general population, the suicide rates of psychiatric inpatient populations in Germany and Switzerland are very high. An important preventive contribution to the lowering of the suicide rates in mental health care is to ensure that the risk of suicide of psychiatric inpatients is assessed as accurately as possible. While risk-assessment instruments can serve an important function in determining such risk, very few have been translated to German. Therefore, in the present study, we reported on the German version of Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) scale. After translating the original instrument into German and pretesting the German version, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the instrument. Twelve video case studies were evaluated by 13 raters with the NGASR scale in a 'laboratory' trial. In each case, the observer's agreement was calculated for the single items, the overall scale, the risk levels, and the sum scores. The statistical data analysis was conducted with kappa and AC1 statistics for dichotomous (items, scale) scales. A high-to-very high observers' agreement (AC1: 0.62-1.00, kappa: 0.00-1.00) was determined for 16 items of the German version of the NGASR scale. We conclude that the German version of the NGASR scale is a reliable instrument for evaluating risk factors for suicide. A reliable application in the clinical practise appears to be enhanced by training in the use of the instrument and the right implementation instructions. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Psychometric Properties of the Chinese Shortened Version of the Zuckerman–Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire in a Sample of Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Wang, Daoyang; Hu, Mingming; Zheng, Chanjin; Liu, Zhengguang

2017-01-01

Introduction: The original 89-item Zuckerman–Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire (form III Revised, ZKPQ-III-R) is a widely accepted and used self-report measure for personality traits. This study assessed the reliability and construct validity of the Chinese short 46-item version of the ZKPQ-III-R in a sample of adolescents and young adults. Methodology: A total of 1,019 Chinese adolescents and young adults completed the Chinese version of the original 89-item version ZKPQ-III-R and short 46-item version ZKPQ-III-R, self-report measures of depression, life satisfaction, and subjective health complaints (SHC), the Big Five personality traits, and a substance use risk profile. We explored the internal consistency of five dimensions of the short 46-item version ZKPQ-III-R and compared it with observations in previous studies of Chinese and other populations. The structure of the questionnaire was analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory structural equation modeling. Results: The short 46-item version ZKPQ-III-R had adequate internal reliability for all five dimensions, with Cronbach’s α coefficients of 0.63 to 0.84. The concurrent validity of the short 46-item version ZKPQ-III-R was supported by significant correlations with depression, life satisfaction, and SHC. The short 46-item version ZKPQ-III-R had better fit, similar reliability coefficients, and slightly better construct and convergent validity than the 89-item version. Conclusion: The Chinese version of the 46-item ZKPQ-III-R presented reliability and validity in measuring personality in Chinese adolescents and young adults. PMID:28326057

Quality Risk Management. Modernising the Architecture of Quality Assurance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raban, Colin; Turner, Liz

2006-01-01

Although the world is changing, quality management remains an area of relative calm. Many institutions continue to use elaborated versions of a model that is developed by the Council of Academic Awards and conceived at a time when higher education was not so exposed to market forces, when the policy and regulatory environment was relatively…

Predicting Student Success: A Naïve Bayesian Application to Community College Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ornelas, Fermin; Ordonez, Carlos

2017-01-01

This research focuses on developing and implementing a continuous Naïve Bayesian classifier for GEAR courses at Rio Salado Community College. Previous implementation efforts of a discrete version did not predict as well, 70%, and had deployment issues. This predictive model has higher prediction, over 90%, accuracy for both at-risk and successful…

The global diabetes model: user friendly version 3.0.

PubMed

Brown, J B; Russell, A; Chan, W; Pedula, K; Aickin, M

2000-11-01

The attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the global diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous, stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitable for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM predicts medical events (complications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Incidence rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are based on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing diabetic members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region, a non-profit group-model health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average blood glucose (HbAlc), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerides, smoking status, and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted include diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death.

STochastic Analysis of Technical Systems (STATS): A model for evaluating combined effects of multiple uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kranz, L.; VanKuiken, J.C.; Gillette, J.L.

1989-12-01

The STATS model, now modified to run on microcomputers, uses user- defined component uncertainties to calculate composite uncertainty distributions for systems or technologies. The program can be used to investigate uncertainties for a single technology on to compare two technologies. Although the term technology'' is used throughout the program screens, the program can accommodate very broad problem definitions. For example, electrical demand uncertainties, health risks associated with toxic material exposures, or traffic queuing delay times can be estimated. The terminology adopted in this version of STATS reflects the purpose of the earlier version, which was to aid in comparing advancedmore » electrical generating technologies. A comparison of two clean coal technologies in two power plants is given as a case study illustration. 7 refs., 35 figs., 7 tabs.« less

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.1 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.1 software release and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Animal facilities are significant contributors of gaseous emissions including ammonia (NH3) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Previous versions of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.0) and Dairy Gas Emissions Model (DairyGEM version 3.0), two whole-farm simulation models developed by USDA-ARS, ...

Eliciting and Measuring Betrayal Aversion using the BDM Mechanism*

PubMed Central

Quercia, Simone

2016-01-01

Betrayal aversion has been operationalized as the evidence that subjects demand a higher risk premium to take social risks compared to natural risks. This evidence has been first shown by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) using an adaptation of the Becker – DeGroot – Marschak mechanism (BDM, Becker et al. (1964)). We compare their implementation of the BDM mechanism with a new version designed to facilitate subjects’ comprehension. We find that, although the two versions produce different distributions of values, the size of betrayal aversion, measured as an average treatment difference between social and natural risk settings, is not different across the two versions. We further show that our implementation is preferable to use in practice as it reduces substantially subjects’ mistakes and the likelihood of noisy valuations. PMID:27366658

Interventions to help external cephalic version for breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Breech presentation places a fetus at increased risk. The outcome for the baby is improved by planned caesarean section compared with planned vaginal delivery. External cephalic version attempt reduces the chance of breech presentation at birth, but is not always successful. Tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus as well as other methods have been also used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. The objective of this review is to assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural or spinal analgesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trials Register (searched December 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (The Cochrane Library, Issue 4, 2001) were searched. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective or no tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural or spinal analgesia versus no regional analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by the reviewer. In six trials, routine tocolysis was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.87). The reduction in non-cephalic presentations at birth was not statistically significant. Caesarean sections were reduced (relative risk 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.99). Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (relative risk 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.60). With epidural or spinal analgesia, external cephalic version failure, non-cephalic births and caesarean sections were reduced in two trials but not the other. The overall differences were not statistically significant. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were located. Routine tocolysis appears to reduce the failure rate of external cephalic version at term. Although promising, there is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions, nor of epidural or spinal analgesia. Large volume intravenous preloading may have contributed to the effectiveness demonstrated in two of the latter trials. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were found.

Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model for Information Technology Services (C2M2 for IT Services), Version 1.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

Information and technology assets are a particular focus of the model. Information assets could be digital (e.g., stored in a computer system...which give context for the domain and intro - duce its practices and its abbreviation. (The abbreviation for the Risk Management domain, for example...Objectives and Practices 1. Manage Asset Inventory MIL1 a. There is an inventory of technology assets (e.g., computers and telecommunication equipment

Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

2017-01-01

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

Inventory of Personal Skills for Achievement: Validity and Reliability Study of an Instrument for Identifying Educationally At-Risk Junior [High] School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leaseburg, Melinda G.; And Others

This paper describes the development and test of an early-warning instrument for identifying at-risk students aged 10-15. A statistically sound test to identify at-risk high school students existed in the Personal Skills Map--Adolescent version (PSMA-A). This study used a modified version of PSM-A , which was renamed Personal Skills for…

Recalibration of risk prediction models in a large multicenter cohort of admissions to adult, general critical care units in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Brady, Anthony R; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Rowan, Kathy

2006-05-01

To assess the performance of published risk prediction models in common use in adult critical care in the United Kingdom and to recalibrate these models in a large representative database of critical care admissions. Prospective cohort study. A total of 163 adult general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, during the period of December 1995 to August 2003. A total of 231,930 admissions, of which 141,106 met inclusion criteria and had sufficient data recorded for all risk prediction models. None. The published versions of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE II UK, APACHE III, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, and Mortality Probability Models (MPM) II were evaluated for discrimination and calibration by means of a combination of appropriate statistical measures recommended by an expert steering committee. All models showed good discrimination (the c index varied from 0.803 to 0.832) but imperfect calibration. Recalibration of the models, which was performed by both the Cox method and re-estimating coefficients, led to improved discrimination and calibration, although all models still showed significant departures from perfect calibration. Risk prediction models developed in another country require validation and recalibration before being used to provide risk-adjusted outcomes within a new country setting. Periodic reassessment is beneficial to ensure calibration is maintained.

Analysis of an epigenetic argument against human reproductive cloning.

PubMed

Nordgren, Anders

2006-08-01

Human reproductive cloning is a much disputed ethical issue. This technology is often condemned as being contrary to human dignity. However, there are also risk arguments. An ethical argument that is often put forward by scientists but seldom developed in more detail focuses on health risks in animal cloning. There is a high risk that animal clones exhibit abnormalities and these are increasingly believed to be due to errors in epigenetic reprogramming. The argument is that human reproductive cloning should not be carried out because human clones are also likely to exhibit abnormalities due to inappropriate epigenetic reprogramming. Different versions of this epigenetic argument are analysed, a categorical version and a non-categorical. The non-categorical version is suggested to be more well-considered. With regard to policy making on human reproductive cloning, the categorical version can be used to prescribe a permanent ban, while the non-categorical version can be used to prescribe a temporary ban. The implications of the precautionary principle--as interpreted in the European Union--are investigated. The conclusion is that it seems possible to support a temporary ban by reference to this principle.

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E.; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

BOADICEA breast cancer risk prediction model: updates to cancer incidences, tumour pathology and web interface

PubMed Central

Lee, A J; Cunningham, A P; Kuchenbaecker, K B; Mavaddat, N; Easton, D F; Antoniou, A C

2014-01-01

Background: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction model that is used to compute probabilities of carrying mutations in the high-risk breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2, and to estimate the future risks of developing breast or ovarian cancer. In this paper, we describe updates to the BOADICEA model that extend its capabilities, make it easier to use in a clinical setting and yield more accurate predictions. Methods: We describe: (1) updates to the statistical model to include cancer incidences from multiple populations; (2) updates to the distributions of tumour pathology characteristics using new data on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and women with breast cancer from the general population; (3) improvements to the computational efficiency of the algorithm so that risk calculations now run substantially faster; and (4) updates to the model's web interface to accommodate these new features and to make it easier to use in a clinical setting. Results: We present results derived using the updated model, and demonstrate that the changes have a significant impact on risk predictions. Conclusion: All updates have been implemented in a new version of the BOADICEA web interface that is now available for general use: http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/. PMID:24346285

Measuring Pragmatic Skills: Early Detection of Infants at Risk for Communication Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cocquyt, Mie; Mommaerts, Maurice Yves; Dewart, Hazel; Zink, Inge

2015-01-01

Background: For the early detection of children who are at risk of communication problems, we need appropriate assessment instruments. Two Dutch-language standardised screening instruments are available: the Dutch version of the Non Speech Test (NNST) and the Dutch version of the MacArthur Communicative Development Inventories (N-CDIs). These…

External cephalic version facilitation for breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2001-01-01

Tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus as well as other methods have been also used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. The objective of this review is to assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural or spinal analgesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trials Register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Date of last search: April 2001. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural or spinal analgesia versus no regional analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by the reviewer. In seven trials, routine tocolysis was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.87). There were no significant differences between non-cephalic presentations at birth. Caesarean sections were reduced (relative risk 0.85, confidence interval 0.72-0.99). Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (relative risk 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.60). With epidural or spinal analgesia, external cephalic version failure, non-cephalic births and caesarean sections were reduced in one trial but not the other. The overall differences were not statistically significant. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were located. Routine tocolysis appears to reduce the failure rate of external cephalic version at term. Although promising, there is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions, nor of epidural or spinal analgesia. Large volume intravenous preloading may have contributed to the effectiveness demonstrated in one of the latter trials. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were found.

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, S.; Stolarski, R.S.; Nielsen, J.E.; Perlwitz, J.; Oman, L.; Waugh, D.

2009-01-01

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Early Clinical Manifestations Associated with Death from Visceral Leishmaniasis

PubMed Central

de Araújo, Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Reis, Ilka Afonso; Rabello, Ana; Carneiro, Mariângela

2012-01-01

Background In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). Methodology The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002–2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score. Principal Findings Model 1 (period 2002–2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007–2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3–6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2–4.8) and age ≥60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5–4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2–10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3–7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7–27.2) and age ≥60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4–7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%). Conclusions Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality. PMID:22347514

Humber-in-a-Box : Gamification to Communicate Coastal Flood Risk in the Face of Rising Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skinner, C. J.; van Rij, J. D.

2015-12-01

Humber-in-a-Box is an immersive visualisation of the Humber Estuary (on the east coast of the UK), designed to communicate coastal flood risk in the face of rising seas. It is designed for use in a busy festival-like setting. The user views the environment via an Oculus Rift Virtual Reality (VR) headset and is able to explore using an XBOX controller. A live simulation of tidal flows on a modelled version of the estuary can be viewed on a box in the centre of a virtual room. Using the controller, the user is able to raise sea levels and see what happens as the tide levels adjust. Humber-in-a-Box uses a numerical model built with data used for published research. The hydraulic component of the CAESAR-Lisflood model code was incorporated into the UNITY-3D gaming engine, and the model uses recorded tidal stage data, bathymetry and elevations to build the virtual environment and drive the simulation. Present day flood defences are incorporated into the model, and in conjunction with modelling tidal flows, this provides a better representation of future flood risk than simpler linear models. The user is able to raise and lower sea levels between -10 m and 100 m, in 1m increments, and can reset the simulation to present day levels with one button click. Humber-in-a-Box has been showcased at several outreach events and has proven to be very popular and effective in an environment where time with each user is pressured, and information needs to exchange quickly. It has also been used in teaching at Undergraduate level, although the full potential of this is yet to be explored. A non-interactive version of the application is available on YouTube which is designed for use with Google Cardboard and similar kit.

Group Influences on Young Adult Warfighters’ Risk Taking

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Statistical Analysis Latent linear growth models were fitted using the maximum likelihood estimation method in Mplus (version 7.0; Muthen & Muthen...condition had a higher net score than those in the alone condition (b = 20.53, SE = 6.29, p < .001). Results of the relevant statistical analyses are...8.56 110.86*** 22.01 158.25*** 29.91 Model fit statistics BIC 4004.50 5302.539 5540.58 Chi-square (df) 41.51*** (16) 38.10** (20) 42.19** (20

The Mistaken Birth and Adoption of LNT: An Abridged Version

PubMed Central

Calabrese, Edward J.

2017-01-01

The historical foundations of cancer risk assessment were based on the discovery of X-ray-induced gene mutations by Hermann J. Muller, its transformation into the linear nonthreshold (LNT) single-hit theory, the recommendation of the model by the US National Academy of Sciences, Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation I, Genetics Panel in 1956, and subsequent widespread adoption by regulatory agencies worldwide. This article summarizes substantial recent historical revelations of this history, which profoundly challenge the standard and widely acceptable history of cancer risk assessment, showing multiple significant scientific errors and incorrect interpretations, mixed with deliberate misrepresentation of the scientific record by leading ideologically motivated radiation geneticists. These novel historical findings demonstrate that the scientific foundations of the LNT single-hit model were seriously flawed and should not have been adopted for cancer risk assessment. PMID:29051718

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

PubMed

Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

2007-12-07

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.3 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.3 Software development and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Modeling routines of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.2) and Dairy Gas Emission Model (DairyGEM version 3.2), two whole-farm simulation models developed and maintained by USDA-ARS, were revised with new components for: (1) simulation of ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas emissions gene...

PyFLOWGO: An open-source platform for simulation of channelized lava thermo-rheological properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevrel, Magdalena Oryaëlle; Labroquère, Jérémie; Harris, Andrew J. L.; Rowland, Scott K.

2018-02-01

Lava flow advance can be modeled through tracking the evolution of the thermo-rheological properties of a control volume of lava as it cools and crystallizes. An example of such a model was conceived by Harris and Rowland (2001) who developed a 1-D model, FLOWGO, in which the velocity of a control volume flowing down a channel depends on rheological properties computed following the thermal path estimated via a heat balance box model. We provide here an updated version of FLOWGO written in Python that is an open-source, modern and flexible language. Our software, named PyFLOWGO, allows selection of heat fluxes and rheological models of the user's choice to simulate the thermo-rheological evolution of the lava control volume. We describe its architecture which offers more flexibility while reducing the risk of making error when changing models in comparison to the previous FLOWGO version. Three cases are tested using actual data from channel-fed lava flow systems and results are discussed in terms of model validation and convergence. PyFLOWGO is open-source and packaged in a Python library to be imported and reused in any Python program (https://github.com/pyflowgo/pyflowgo)

Long-term reliability of ImPACT in professional ice hockey.

PubMed

Echemendia, Ruben J; Bruce, Jared M; Meeuwisse, Willem; Comper, Paul; Aubry, Mark; Hutchison, Michael

2016-02-01

This study sought to assess the test-retest reliability of Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) across 2-4 year time intervals and evaluate the utility of a newly proposed two-factor (Speed/Memory) model of ImPACT across multiple language versions. Test-retest data were collected from non-concussed National Hockey League (NHL) players across 2-, 3-, and 4-year time intervals. The two-factor model was examined using different language versions (English, French, Czech, Swedish) of the test using a one-year interval, and across 2-4 year intervals using the English version of the test. The two-factor Speed index improved reliability across multiple language versions of ImPACT. The Memory factor also improved but reliability remained below the traditional cutoff of .70 for use in clinical decision-making. ImPACT reliabilities remained low (below .70) regardless of whether the four-composite or the two-factor model was used across 2-, 3-, and 4-year time intervals. The two-factor approach increased ImPACT's one-year reliability over the traditional four-composite model among NHL players. The increased stability in test scores improves the test's ability to detect cognitive changes following injury, which increases the diagnostic utility of the test and allows for better return to play decision-making by reducing the risk of exposing an athlete to additional trauma while the brain may be at a heightened vulnerability to such trauma. Although the Speed Index increases the clinical utility of the test, the stability of the Memory index remains low. Irrespective of whether the two-factor or traditional four-composite approach is used, these data suggest that new baselines should occur on a yearly basis in order to maximize clinical utility.

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections

PubMed Central

Bailey, Stephanie L.; Bono, Rose S.; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D.

2018-01-01

Background Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. Methods We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. Results We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Conclusions Standard error-checking techniques may not identify all errors in spreadsheet-based models. Comparing parallel model versions can aid in identifying unintentional errors and promoting reliable model projections, particularly when resources are limited. PMID:29570737

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

PubMed

Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

2018-01-01

Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not identify all errors in spreadsheet-based models. Comparing parallel model versions can aid in identifying unintentional errors and promoting reliable model projections, particularly when resources are limited.

Superquantile/CVaR Risk Measures: Second-Order Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-31

order superquantile risk minimization as well as superquantile regression , a proposed second-order version of quantile regression . Keywords...minimization as well as superquantile regression , a proposed second-order version of quantile regression . 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY...superquantilies, because it is deeply tied to generalized regression . The joint formula (3) is central to quantile regression , a well known alternative

Practicalities of Using a Modified Version of the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool for Randomised and Non-Randomised Study Designs Applied in a Health Technology Assessment Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Clare; Ramsay, Craig; Gurung, Tara; Mowatt, Graham; Pickard, Robert; Sharma, Pawana

2014-01-01

We describe our experience of using a modified version of the Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool for randomised and non-randomised comparative studies. Objectives: (1) To assess time to complete RoB assessment; (2) To assess inter-rater agreement; and (3) To explore the association between RoB and treatment effect size. Methods: Cochrane risk of…

Bioconcentration of gaseous organic chemicals in plant leaves: Comparison of experimental data with model predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polder, M.D.; Hulzebos, E.M.; Jager, D.T.

1998-01-01

This literature study is performed to support the implementation of two models in a risk assessment system for the evaluation of chemicals and their risk for human health and the environment. One of the exposure pathways for humans and cattle is the uptake of chemicals by plants. In this risk assessment system the transfer of gaseous organic substances from air to plants modeled by Riederer is included. A similar model with a more refined approach, including dilution by growth, is proposed by Trapp and Matthies, which was implemented in the European version of this risk assessment system (EUSES). In thismore » study both models are evaluated by comparison with experimental data on leaf/air partition coefficients found in the literature. For herbaceous plants both models give good estimations for the leaf/air partition coefficient up to 10{sup 7}, with deviations for most substances within a factor of five. For the azalea and spruce group the fit between experimental BCF values and the calculated model values is less adequate. For substances for which Riederer estimates a leaf/air partition coefficient above 10{sup 7}, the approach of Trapp and Matthies seems more adequate; however, few data were available.« less

Suicidal-related behaviors and quality of life according to gender in adolescent Mexican high school students.

PubMed

Hidalgo-Rasmussen, Carlos; Martín, Alfredo Hidalgo-San

2015-11-01

The study of pre-suicidal behaviors is important not only because of their association with suicide but also because of their impact on quality of life (QOL). Given the scarcity of information regarding this relationship in adolescence, the objective of this study was to analyze the association between suicidal-related behavior and QOL according to gender in adolescent Mexican high school students. This cross-sectional study was conducted with participants between 14 and 18 years of age. A translated version of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey and the Spanish version of the Youth Quality of Life Research - Instrument version were used. Non-parametric tests were applied. Informed consent was obtained from parents and students, and ethical committee approval was sought. The developmental-transactional model of suicidal behavior in adolescents by Bridge et al. was used. Separate analyses were conducted for males and females to show the suicidal-related behaviors associated with QOL. The behavior of having felt sad or hopeless generally presented the greatest effect sizes. The regression models showed that some suicidal-related behaviors increase the probability of a lower QOL even after adjusting for covariates.

NETL Crosscutting Research Video Series: Multiphase Flow (Short Version)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

For over 30 years, NETL’s work in multiphase flow science has served as one of the cornerstones of the lab’s research portfolio. Multiphase flow refers to the simultaneous flow of gases, liquids and/or solid materials. The goal of the multiphase flow science team is to provide computational modeling tools to help offset the risk and cost of multiphase reactor development.

ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

2017-10-19

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.

2017-01-01

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

Assessing reliability of short and tick box forms of the ANU-ADRI: Convenient alternatives of a self-report Alzheimer's disease risk assessment.

PubMed

Kim, Sarang; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Anstey, Kaarin J

2016-06-01

To assess the reliability of short versions of the Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI). A short form of the ANU-ADRI (ANU-ADRI-SF) was developed by assessing risk and protective factors with single questions where possible and with short forms of sub-questionnaires where available. The tick box form of the ANU-ADRI (ANU-ADRI-TB) was developed with unique questions for each risk and protective factor for Alzheimer's disease. The short versions were evaluated in an independent community sample of 504 participants with a mean age of 45.01 (SD = 14.85, range = 18-81). The short versions demonstrated high reliabilities when compared with the ANU-ADRI. However, the proportion of misclassification was high for some risk factors and particularly for the ANU-ADRI-TB. The ANU-ADRI-SF may be considered if less reliable questions from the ANU-ADRI-SF can be replaced with more reliable questions from the ANU-ADRI for risk/protective factors with high misclassification.

Psychometric validation of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool for older Chinese inpatients.

PubMed

Zhang, Junhong; Wang, Min; Liu, Yu

2016-10-01

To culturally adapt and evaluate the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among older inpatients in the mainland of China. Patient falls are an important safety consideration within hospitals among older inpatients. Nurses need specific risk assessment tools for older inpatients to reliably identify at-risk populations and guide interventions that highlight fixable risk factors for falls and consequent injuries. In China, a few tools have been developed to measure fall risk. However, they lack the solid psychometric development necessary to establish their validity and reliability, and they are not widely used for elderly inpatients. A cross-sectional study. A convenient sampling was used to recruit 201 older inpatients from two tertiary-level hospitals in Beijing and Xiamen, China. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was translated using forward and backward translation procedures and was administered to these 201 older inpatients. Reliability of the tool was calculated by inter-rater reliability and Cronbach's alpha. Validity was analysed through content validity index and construct validity. The Inter-rater reliability of Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was 97·14% agreement with Cohen's Kappa of 0·903. Cronbach's α was 0·703. Content of Validity Index was 0·833. Two factors represented intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors were explored that together explained 58·89% of the variance. This study provided evidence that Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool is an acceptable, valid and reliable tool to identify older inpatients at risk of falls and falls with injury. Further psychometric testing on criterion validity and evaluation of its advanced utility in geriatric clinical settings are warranted. The Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool may be useful for health care personnel to identify older Chinese inpatients at risk of falls and falls with injury. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Turkish translation of the Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire (NOSQ-2002/LONG) adapted for young workers in high-risk jobs.

PubMed

Aktas, Emine; Esin, Melek Nihal

2016-03-01

Occupational skin diseases (OSDs) represent 10-40% of all occupational diseases in many industrialized countries. Young workers are frequently exposed to toxic substances and chemicals in the workplace. The occupational conditions of young workers can impose a high level of risk for the occurrence of OSDs. The Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire (NOSQ-2002) was developed in English as a new, comprehensive, standardized tool with which to screen for OSDs. The purpose of this study was to translate the NOSQ-2002 into Turkish and to culturally adapt the long version of the instrument for use with young workers in jobs with high risk for the occurrence of OSDs. Forward and back translations were carried out. Problematic items were modified until the Turkish-language version achieved a satisfactory consensus with the original version of the NOSQ-2002. The final Turkish version was tested in 40 randomly selected young workers with and without OSDs who were studying in the fields of hairdressing, jewelry making, and car mechanics at vocational training schools run by the National Education Ministry. When the original questionnaire had been translated into the target language, a first consensus version was evaluated by an expert panel. The expert panel determined that 36 questions (63.2%) in the Turkish version required some level of modification in order to facilitate clear understanding. Cognitive interviews were then performed. After some modification, the final Turkish version was established and tested among young workers. The new Turkish version of the NOSQ is a comprehensible, reliable, and useful tool that can be applied to young workers in specific occupations. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

Early assessment of proarrhythmic risk of drugs using the in vitro data and single-cell-based in silico models: proof of concept.

PubMed

Abbasi, Mitra; Small, Ben G; Patel, Nikunjkumar; Jamei, Masoud; Polak, Sebastian

2017-02-01

To determine the predictive performance of in silico models using drug-specific preclinical cardiac electrophysiology data to investigate drug-induced arrhythmia risk (e.g. Torsade de pointes (TdP)) in virtual human subjects. To assess drug proarrhythmic risk, we used a set of in vitro electrophysiological measurements describing ion channel inhibition triggered by the investigated drugs. The Cardiac Safety Simulator version 2.0 (CSS; Simcyp, Sheffield, UK) platform was used to simulate human left ventricular cardiac myocyte action potential models. This study shows the impact of drug concentration changes on particular ionic currents by using available experimental data. The simulation results display safety threshold according to drug concentration threshold and log (threshold concentration/ effective therapeutic plasma concentration (ETPC)). We reproduced the underlying biophysical characteristics of cardiac cells resulted in effects of drugs associated with cardiac arrhythmias (action potential duration (APD) and QT prolongation and TdP) which were observed in published 3D simulations, yet with much less computational burden.

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version 5.2 (CMAQv5.2), is currently being developed, with a planned release date in 2017. The new model includes numerous updates from the previous version of the model (CMAQv5.1). Specific updates include a new...

Using Rasch-models to compare the 30-, 20-, and 12-items version of the general health questionnaire taking four recoding schemes into account.

PubMed

Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; Friedrich, Fabian; Jahn, Rebecca; Soulier, Nathalie

2015-01-01

The present study compares the 30-, 20-, and 12-items versions of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) in the original coding and four different recoding schemes (Bimodal, Chronic, Modified Likert and a newly proposed Modified Chronic) with respect to their psychometric qualities. The dichotomized versions (i.e. Bimodal, Chronic and Modified Chronic) were evaluated with the Rasch-Model and the polytomous original version and the Modified Likert version were evaluated with the Partial Credit Model. In general, the versions under consideration showed agreement with the model assumption. However, the recoded versions exhibited some deficits with respect to the Outfit index. Because of the item deficits and for theoretical reasons we argue in favor of using the any of the three length versions with the original four-categorical coding scheme. Nevertheless, any of the versions appears apt for clinical use from a psychometric perspective.

Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B

2016-12-01

Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P < 0.001), but was predicted to increase from 3.6% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2012 because of increased maternal age, nulliparity, maternal diabetes, history of breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Child Neglect Questionnaire.

PubMed

Stewart, Chris; Kirisci, Levent; Long, Abigail L; Giancola, Peter R

2015-11-01

Neglect poses a significant risk for children throughout their development and is often linked with serious consequences that reach into adulthood. The Child Neglect Questionnaire (CNQ) fills existing gaps by incorporating multiple perspectives from both parents and the child, as well as measuring the complex phenomenon of neglect multidimensionally. Furthermore, this measure addresses the need for an instrument specifically developed for late childhood (ages 10-12), as much of the extant evidence and corresponding measures focus on young children and their mothers. A panel of three psychologists, using Cicchetti's model of child neglect as a theoretical guide, began by selecting items from an existing database. Results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and item response theory demonstrated the unidimensionality of physical, emotional, educational, and supervision neglect as well as a second-order construct of child neglect. Analyses controlling for risk status due to father's substance use disorder, socioeconomic status, and child's ethnicity demonstrated that father's and mother's (parental) neglect, particularly in the child's versions, had sound concurrent and predictive validity. Concurrently, at age 10-12, the child's version of both parents' neglect correlated with their parenting behaviors evaluated by other available measures. Prospectively, from 10-12 years of age to 11-13 years of age, parental neglect predicted child's drug use frequency with coexisting psychological dysregulation, psychiatric symptoms, antisocial behavior, non-normative sexual behavior, involvement with deviant peers and leisure activities thus demonstrating sound predictive validity. Also, internal consistency and inter-rater reliability were excellent. The CNQ, particularly the child's version, may thus be useful for detecting children at high risk for parental neglect. © The Author(s) 2014.

Performance of Versions 1,2 and 3 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven; Stolarski, Richard S.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Duncan, Bryan N.

2008-01-01

Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) was used in the first CCMVa1 model evaluation and forms the basis for several studies of links between ozone and the circulation. That version of the CCM was based on the GEOS-4 GCM. Versions 2 and 3 of the GEOS CCM are based on the GEOS-5 GCM, which retains the "Lin-Rood" dynamical core but has a totally different set of physical parameterizatiOns to GEOS-4. In Version 2 of the GEOS CCM the Goddard stratospheric chemistry module is retained. Difference between Versions 1 and 2 thus reflect the physics changes of the underlying GCMs. Several comparisons between these two models are made, several of which reveal improvements in Version 2 (including a more realistic representation of the interannual variability of the Antarctic vortex). In Version 3 of the GEOS CCM, the stratospheric chemistry mechanism is replaced by the "GMI COMBO" code that includes tropospheric chemistry and different computational approaches. An advantage of this model version. is the reduction of high ozone biases that prevail at low chlorine loadings in Versions 1 and 2. This poster will compare and contrast various aspects of the three model versions that are relevant for understanding interactions between ozone and climate.

An Application on Merton Model in the Non-efficient Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yanan; Xiao, Qingxian

Merton Model is one of the famous credit risk models. This model presumes that the only source of uncertainty in equity prices is the firm’s net asset value .But the above market condition holds only when the market is efficient which is often been ignored in modern research. Another, the original Merton Model is based on assumptions that in the event of default absolute priority holds, renegotiation is not permitted , liquidation of the firm is costless and in the Merton Model and most of its modified version the default boundary is assumed to be constant which don’t correspond with the reality. So these can influence the level of predictive power of the model. In this paper, we have made some extensions on some of these assumptions underlying the original model. The model is virtually a modification of Merton’s model. In a non-efficient market, we use the stock data to analysis this model. The result shows that the modified model can evaluate the credit risk well in the non-efficient market.

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Reasons for Living-Older Adults Scale: A Suicide Risk Assessment Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edelstein, Barry A.; Heisel, Marnin J.; McKee, Deborah R.; Martin, Ronald R.; Koven, Lesley P.; Duberstein, Paul R.; Britton, Peter C.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purposes of these studies were to develop and initially evaluate the psychometric properties of the Reasons for Living Scale-Older Adult version (RFL-OA), an older adults version of a measure designed to assess reasons for living among individuals at risk for suicide. Design and Methods: Two studies are reported. Study 1 involved…

Validation of the Malay version of Berlin questionaire to identify Malaysian patients for obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Yunus, A; Seet, W; Mohamad Adam, B; Haniff, J

2013-01-01

To validate the Malay version of Berlin Questionnaire (BQ) as a tool to screen for patients at risk of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in primary care. Most patients with OSA are unrecognised and untreated. Thus, the BQ has been used as a tool to screen for patients at risk for OSA. However, this tool has not been validated in Malay version. A parallel back-to-back translation method was applied to produce the Malay version (Berlin-M). The Malay version was administered to 150 patients in a tertiary respiratory medical centre.  Concurrent validity of the Berlin-M was determined using the Apnea Hypopnea Index (AHI) as the gold standard measure.  The test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the Berlin-M were determined. Most patients were males (64.0%) and majority of them were Malays (63.3%). Based on the sleep study test, 121 (84.0%) were classified as high risk while 23 (16.0%) as low risk using the Apnea Hypopnea Index (AHI) ≥5 as the cutoff point. The test-retest reliability Kappa value showed a good range between 0.864 - 1.000. The Cronbach's alpha of BQ was 0.750 in category 1 and 0.888 in category 2. The sensitivity and specificity were 92% and 17% respectively. The BQ showed high sensitivity (92%) but low specificity (17%). Therefore, though the Berlin-M is useful as a screening tool, it is not a confirmatory diagnostic tool.

MATILDA Version-2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part II

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-28

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. PA Case No: TSRL- PA-2017-0228 Air Force Research Laboratory 711th Human Performance Wing Airman...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Air Force Research Laboratory Engility Corp 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...United States (US) Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) have collaborated to develop a US-UK laser range safety tool, the Military Advanced Technology

Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

PubMed

Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

2010-06-01

Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the Netherlands. A prospective cohort study was conducted of 167 women under the care of a midwife with confirmed breech presentation at a gestational age of 33 completed weeks or more. Between June 2007 and January 2008, 167 women with a confirmed breech presentation were offered an external cephalic version. Of this group, 123 women (73.7%, 95% CI: 65.5-80.5) subsequently received the version. These women had about a ninefold increased probability of a cephalic presentation at birth compared with women who did not undergo a version (relative risk [RR]: 8.8, 95% CI: 2.2-34.8). The chance of a vaginal birth after an external cephalic version was almost threefold (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.5-5.0). The success rate was 39 percent, although considerable differences existed associated with region and parity. Ninety-four percent of women with a successful version rated it as a good experience compared with 71 percent of women who had a failed version (p = 0.015). Significant pain during the version was experienced by 34 percent of women, of whom 18 percent also experienced fear during the version, compared with no women who reported little or no pain (p = 0.006). Women who reported significant pain or fear during the version experienced the version more negatively (OR: 6.0, 95% CI: 3.3-12.2 and OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0, respectively). One in every four women with a breech presentation in independent midwifery care did not receive an external cephalic version. Of the women who received a version one third experienced significant pain during the procedure. Considerable regional variation in success rate existed.

MODEL VERSION CONTROL FOR GREAT LAKES MODELS ON UNIX SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Scientific results of the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Project were provided where atrazine was measured and modeled. The presentation also provided the model version control system which has been used for models at Grosse Ile for approximately a decade and contains various version...

Managing IT service management implementation complexity: from the perspective of the Warfield Version of systems science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Jiangping; Jones, James D.

2013-11-01

The Warfield version of systems science supports a wide variety of application areas, and is useful to practitioners who use the work program of complexity (WPOC) tool. In this article, WPOC is applied to information technology service management (ITSM) for managing the complexity of projects. In discussing the application of WPOC to ITSM, we discuss several steps of WPOC. The discovery step of WPOC consists of a description process and a diagnosis process. During the description process, 52 risk factors are identified, which are then narrowed to 20 key risk factors. All of this is done by interviews and surveys. Root risk factors (the most basic risk factors) consist of 11 kinds of common 'mindbugs' which are selected from an interpretive structural model. This is achieved by empirical analysis of 25 kinds of mindbugs. (A lesser aim of this research is to affirm that these mindbugs developed from a Western mindset have corresponding relevance in a completely different culture: the Peoples Republic of China.) During the diagnosis process, the relationships among the root risk factors in the implementation of the ITSM project are identified. The resolution step of WPOC consists of a design process and an implementation process. During the design process, issues related to the ITSM application are compared to both e-Government operation and maintenance, and software process improvement. The ITSM knowledge support structure is also designed at this time. During the implementation process, 10 keys to the successful implementation of ITSM projects are identified.

External cephalic version facilitation for breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Successful external cephalic version at a late stage of pregnancy was considered to be possible only with the use of tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus. Other methods are also used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural anaesthesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Date of last search: February 1999. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural analgesia versus no epidural analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by the reviewer. Six trials were included. Routine tocolysis was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.92). There were no significant differences between non-cephalic presentations and caesarean sections. Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (relative risk 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.60). No randomised trials of epidural analgesia or transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were located. Routine tocolysis appears to reduce the failure rate of external cephalic version at term. Although promising, there is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions. There is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of epidural analgesia or transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term.

What's new in the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) version 1.3

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) has been released. The new version of AMET, version 1.3 (AMETv1.3), contains a number of updates and changes from the previous of version of AMET (v1.2) released in 2012. First, the Perl scripts used in the previous ve...

Reliability considerations for the total strain range version of strainrange partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wirsching, P. H.; Wu, Y. T.

1984-01-01

A proposed total strainrange version of strainrange partitioning (SRP) to enhance the manner in which SRP is applied to life prediction is considered with emphasis on how advanced reliability technology can be applied to perform risk analysis and to derive safety check expressions. Uncertainties existing in the design factors associated with life prediction of a component which experiences the combined effects of creep and fatigue can be identified. Examples illustrate how reliability analyses of such a component can be performed when all design factors in the SRP model are random variables reflecting these uncertainties. The Rackwitz-Fiessler and Wu algorithms are used and estimates of the safety index and the probablity of failure are demonstrated for a SRP problem. Methods of analysis of creep-fatigue data with emphasis on procedures for producing synoptic statistics are presented. An attempt to demonstrate the importance of the contribution of the uncertainties associated with small sample sizes (fatique data) to risk estimates is discussed. The procedure for deriving a safety check expression for possible use in a design criteria document is presented.

Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, Stuart A.

2013-07-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance andmore » other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)« less

The Mt. Hood challenge: cross-testing two diabetes simulation models.

PubMed

Brown, J B; Palmer, A J; Bisgaard, P; Chan, W; Pedula, K; Russell, A

2000-11-01

Starting from identical patients with type 2 diabetes, we compared the 20-year predictions of two computer simulation models, a 1998 version of the IMIB model and version 2.17 of the Global Diabetes Model (GDM). Primary measures of outcome were 20-year cumulative rates of: survival, first (incident) acute myocardial infarction (AMI), first stroke, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), macro-albuminuria (gross proteinuria, or GPR), and amputation. Standardized test patients were newly diagnosed males aged 45 or 75, with high and low levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum lipids. Both models generated realistic results and appropriate responses to changes in risk factors. Compared with the GDM, the IMIB model predicted much higher rates of mortality and AMI, and fewer strokes. These differences can be explained by differences in model architecture (Markov vs. microsimulation), different evidence bases for cardiovascular prediction (Framingham Heart Study cohort vs. Kaiser Permanente patients), and isolated versus interdependent prediction of cardiovascular events. Compared with IMIB, GDM predicted much higher lifetime costs, because of lower mortality and the use of a different costing method. It is feasible to cross-validate and explicate dissimilar diabetes simulation models using standardized patients. The wide differences in the model results that we observed demonstrate the need for cross-validation. We propose to hold a second 'Mt Hood Challenge' in 2001 and invite all diabetes modelers to attend.

Personalized Risk Prediction in Clinical Oncology Research: Applications and Practical Issues Using Survival Trees and Random Forests.

PubMed

Hu, Chen; Steingrimsson, Jon Arni

2018-01-01

A crucial component of making individualized treatment decisions is to accurately predict each patient's disease risk. In clinical oncology, disease risks are often measured through time-to-event data, such as overall survival and progression/recurrence-free survival, and are often subject to censoring. Risk prediction models based on recursive partitioning methods are becoming increasingly popular largely due to their ability to handle nonlinear relationships, higher-order interactions, and/or high-dimensional covariates. The most popular recursive partitioning methods are versions of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm, which builds a simple interpretable tree structured model. With the aim of increasing prediction accuracy, the random forest algorithm averages multiple CART trees, creating a flexible risk prediction model. Risk prediction models used in clinical oncology commonly use both traditional demographic and tumor pathological factors as well as high-dimensional genetic markers and treatment parameters from multimodality treatments. In this article, we describe the most commonly used extensions of the CART and random forest algorithms to right-censored outcomes. We focus on how they differ from the methods for noncensored outcomes, and how the different splitting rules and methods for cost-complexity pruning impact these algorithms. We demonstrate these algorithms by analyzing a randomized Phase III clinical trial of breast cancer. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to compare the prediction accuracy of survival forests with more commonly used regression models under various scenarios. These simulation studies aim to evaluate how sensitive the prediction accuracy is to the underlying model specifications, the choice of tuning parameters, and the degrees of missing covariates.

Intimate partner violence and anxiety disorders in pregnancy: the importance of vocational training of the nursing staff in facing them1

PubMed Central

Fonseca-Machado, Mariana de Oliveira; Monteiro, Juliana Cristina dos Santos; Haas, Vanderlei José; Abrão, Ana Cristina Freitas de Vilhena; Gomes-Sponholz, Flávia

2015-01-01

Objective: to identify the relationship between posttraumatic stress disorder, trait and state anxiety, and intimate partner violence during pregnancy. Method: observational, cross-sectional study developed with 358 pregnant women. The Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist - Civilian Version was used, as well as the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and an adapted version of the instrument used in the World Health Organization Multi-country Study on Women's Health and Domestic Violence. Results: after adjusting to the multiple logistic regression model, intimate partner violence, occurred during pregnancy, was associated with the indication of posttraumatic stress disorder. The adjusted multiple linear regression models showed that the victims of violence, in the current pregnancy, had higher symptom scores of trait and state anxiety than non-victims. Conclusion: recognizing the intimate partner violence as a clinically relevant and identifiable risk factor for the occurrence of anxiety disorders during pregnancy can be a first step in the prevention thereof. PMID:26487135

Pooling-analysis on hMLH1 polymorphisms and cancer risk: evidence based on 31,484 cancer cases and 45,494 cancer-free controls.

PubMed

Li, Sha; Zheng, Yi; Tian, Tian; Wang, Meng; Liu, Xinghan; Liu, Kang; Zhai, Yajing; Dai, Cong; Deng, Yujiao; Li, Shanli; Dai, Zhijun; Lu, Jun

2017-11-03

To elucidate the veritable relationship between three hMLH1 polymorphisms (rs1800734, rs1799977, rs63750447) and cancer risk, we performed this meta-analysis based on overall published data up to May 2017, from PubMed, Web of knowledge, VIP, WanFang and CNKI database, and the references of the original studies or review articles. 57 publications including 31,484 cancer cases and 45,494 cancer-free controls were obtained. The quality assessment of six articles obtained a summarized score less than 6 in terms of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). All statistical analyses were calculated with the software STATA (Version 14.0; Stata Corp, College Station, TX). We found all the three polymorphisms can enhance overall cancer risk, especially in Asians, under different genetic comparisons. In the subgroup analysis by cancer type, we found a moderate association between rs1800734 and the risk of gastric cancer (allele model: OR = 1.14, P = 0.017; homozygote model: OR = 1.33, P = 0.019; dominant model: OR = 1.27, P = 0.024) and lung cancer in recessive model (OR = 1.27, P = 0.024). The G allele of rs1799977 polymorphism was proved to connect with susceptibility of colorectal cancer (allele model: OR = 1.21, P = 0.023; dominate model: OR = 1.32, P <0.0001) and prostate cancer (dominate model: OR = 1.36, P <0.0001). Rs63750447 showed an increased risk of colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer and gastric cancer under all genetic models. These findings provide evidence that hMLH1 polymorphisms may associate with cancer risk, especially in Asians.

Risk, Uncertainty and Precaution in Science: The Threshold of the Toxicological Concern Approach in Food Toxicology.

PubMed

Bschir, Karim

2017-04-01

Environmental risk assessment is often affected by severe uncertainty. The frequently invoked precautionary principle helps to guide risk assessment and decision-making in the face of scientific uncertainty. In many contexts, however, uncertainties play a role not only in the application of scientific models but also in their development. Building on recent literature in the philosophy of science, this paper argues that precaution should be exercised at the stage when tools for risk assessment are developed as well as when they are used to inform decision-making. The relevance and consequences of this claim are discussed in the context of the threshold of the toxicological concern approach in food toxicology. I conclude that the approach does not meet the standards of an epistemic version of the precautionary principle.

Psychometric properties of the Thai version of the work ability index (Thai WAI).

PubMed

Kaewboonchoo, Orawan; Ratanasiripong, Paul

2015-01-01

The purpose of this research was to develop and test the psychometric properties of the Thai version of the Work Ability Index (WAI). Forward translation and back-translation of the WAI were performed by seven bilingual professionals to ensure that the Thai WAI was culturally relevant and conceptually accurate. To ensure generalizability of the Thai WAI, a sample of 2,744 Thai workers from 19 different enterprises in five regions of Thailand completed the Thai version of the WAI along with the General Health Questionnaire. The 19 enterprises were from the following industries: canned food, snack food, cooking oil, footwear, pharmaceutical, ceramics, toy, steel, petrochemical, and auto parts. The results from exploratory factor analysis supported a 3-factor model, accounting for 53.49% of the total variance. The results also provided evidence for adequate test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the Thai WAI. The internal consistency of the Thai WAI was found to be slightly low due to the newness of the concept of work ability, which is not a common term used in the Thai language; therefore, explanation of the meaning of work ability is needed to increase understanding of workers. By providing early recognition of workers' health risks as well as risks of early termination, the WAI can help Thai human resources managers respond better to the needs of workers and be proactive in their efforts to retain workers in their organizations. Occupational health professionals could also utilize the WAI to evaluate the work ability of Thai workers in order to help organizations recognize early signs of their workers' health risks and possible early terminations and respond appropriately.

The over-pruning hypothesis of autism.

PubMed

Thomas, Michael S C; Davis, Rachael; Karmiloff-Smith, Annette; Knowland, Victoria C P; Charman, Tony

2016-03-01

This article outlines the over-pruning hypothesis of autism. The hypothesis originates in a neurocomputational model of the regressive sub-type (Thomas, Knowland & Karmiloff-Smith, 2011a, 2011b). Here we develop a more general version of the over-pruning hypothesis to address heterogeneity in the timing of manifestation of ASD, including new computer simulations which reconcile the different observed developmental trajectories (early onset, late onset, regression) via a single underlying atypical mechanism; and which show how unaffected siblings of individuals with ASD may differ from controls either by inheriting a milder version of the pathological mechanism or by co-inheriting the risk factors without the pathological mechanism. The proposed atypical mechanism involves overly aggressive synaptic pruning in infancy and early childhood, an exaggeration of a normal phase of brain development. We show how the hypothesis generates novel predictions that differ from existing theories of ASD including that (1) the first few months of development in ASD will be indistinguishable from typical, and (2) the earliest atypicalities in ASD will be sensory and motor rather than social. Both predictions gain cautious support from emerging longitudinal studies of infants at-risk of ASD. We review evidence consistent with the over-pruning hypothesis, its relation to other current theories (including C. Frith's under-pruning proposal; C. Frith, 2003, 2004), as well as inconsistent data and current limitations. The hypothesis situates causal accounts of ASD within a framework of protective and risk factors (Newschaffer et al., 2012); clarifies different versions of the broader autism phenotype (i.e. the implication of observed similarities between individuals with autism and their family members); and integrates data from multiple disciplines, including behavioural studies, neuroscience studies, genetics, and intervention studies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The AMAD will performed two CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the new version of the CMAQ model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation are compared to observations and the performance of t...

Preliminary Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The AMAD will perform two annual CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the beta version of the new model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation will then be compared to observations and the pe...

Trade-space Analysis for Constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Moigne, J.; Dabney, P.; de Weck, O. L.; Foreman, V.; Grogan, P.; Holland, M. P.; Hughes, S. P.; Nag, S.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: "How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best cost/risk value?" The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time. This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit & Coverage, Reduction & Metrics, and Cost& Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance. TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Improved physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for oral exposures to chromium in mice, rats, and humans to address temporal variation and sensitive populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirman, C.R., E-mail: ckirman@summittoxicology.com

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] in mice, rats, and humans developed previously (Kirman et al., 2012, 2013), was updated to reflect an improved understanding of the toxicokinetics of the gastrointestinal tract following oral exposures. Improvements were made to: (1) the reduction model, which describes the pH-dependent reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in the gastrointestinal tract under both fasted and fed states; (2) drinking water pattern simulations, to better describe dosimetry in rodents under the conditions of the NTP cancer bioassay; and (3) parameterize the model to characterize potentially sensitive human populations. Important species differences, sourcesmore » of non-linear toxicokinetics, and human variation are identified and discussed within the context of human health risk assessment. - Highlights: • An improved version of the PBPK model for Cr(VI) toxicokinetics was developed. • The model incorporates data collected to fill important data gaps. • Model predictions for specific age groups and sensitive subpopulations are provided. • Implications to human health risk assessment are discussed.« less

NETPATH-WIN: an interactive user version of the mass-balance model, NETPATH

USGS Publications Warehouse

El-Kadi, A. I.; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, P.

2011-01-01

NETPATH-WIN is an interactive user version of NETPATH, an inverse geochemical modeling code used to find mass-balance reaction models that are consistent with the observed chemical and isotopic composition of waters from aquatic systems. NETPATH-WIN was constructed to migrate NETPATH applications into the Microsoft WINDOWS® environment. The new version facilitates model utilization by eliminating difficulties in data preparation and results analysis of the DOS version of NETPATH, while preserving all of the capabilities of the original version. Through example applications, the note describes some of the features of NETPATH-WIN as applied to adjustment of radiocarbon data for geochemical reactions in groundwater systems.

Heliport noise model (HNM) version 1 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-02-01

This document contains the instructions to execute the Heliport Noise Model (HNM), Version 1. HNM Version 1 is a computer tool for determining the total impact of helicopter noise at and around heliports. The model runs on IBM PC/XT/AT personal compu...

Individual and social determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

PubMed

Alamian, Arsham; Paradis, Gilles

2012-03-22

Behavioral risk factors are known to co-occur among youth, and to increase risks of chronic diseases morbidity and mortality later in life. However, little is known about determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors, particularly among youth. Previous studies have been cross-sectional and carried out without a sound theoretical framework. Using longitudinal data (n = 1135) from Cycle 4 (2000-2001), Cycle 5 (2002-2003) and Cycle 6 (2004-2005) of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, a nationally representative sample of Canadian children who are followed biennially, the present study examines the influence of a set of conceptually-related individual/social distal variables (variables situated at an intermediate distance from behaviors), and individual/social ultimate variables (variables situated at an utmost distance from behaviors) on the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors (physical inactivity, sedentary behavior, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and high body mass index) in a sample of children aged 10-11 years at baseline. Multiple behavioral risk factors were assessed using a multiple risk factor score. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS, version 9.1, and SUDAAN, version 9.01. Multivariate longitudinal Poisson models showed that social distal variables including parental/peer smoking and peer drinking (Log-likelihood ratio (LLR) = 187.86, degrees of freedom (DF) = 8, p < .001), as well as individual distal variables including low self-esteem (LLR = 76.94, DF = 4, p < .001) increased the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors. Individual ultimate variables including age, sex, and anxiety (LLR = 9.34, DF = 3, p < .05), as well as social ultimate variables including family socioeconomic status, and family structure (LLR = 10.93, DF = 5, p = .05) contributed minimally to the rate of co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors. The results suggest targeting individual/social distal variables in prevention programs of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

Mode of delivery after successful external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

de Hundt, Marcella; Velzel, Joost; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

2014-06-01

To assess the mode of delivery in women after a successful external cephalic version by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Cochrane Library for studies reporting on the mode of delivery in women after successful external cephalic version at term and women with a spontaneous cephalic-presenting fetus. Two reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed study quality. The association between mode of delivery and successful external cephalic version was expressed as a common odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We identified three cohort studies and eight case-control studies, reporting on 46,641 women. The average cesarean delivery rate for women with a successful external cephalic version was 21%. Women after successful external cephalic version were at increased risk for cesarean delivery for dystocia (odds ratio [OR] 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.0), cesarean delivery for fetal distress (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9), and instrumental vaginal delivery (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7). Women who have had a successful external cephalic version for breech presentation are at increased risk for cesarean delivery and instrumental vaginal delivery as compared with women with a spontaneous cephalic presentation. Nevertheless, with a number needed to treat of three, external cephalic version still remains a very efficient procedure to prevent a cesarean delivery.

A Descriptive Evaluation of Automated Software Cost-Estimation Models,

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-10-01

Version 1.03D) * PCOC (Version 7.01) - PRICE S • SLIM (Version 1.1) • SoftCost (Version 5. 1) * SPQR /20 (Version 1. 1) - WICOMO (Version 1.3) These...produce detailed GANTT and PERT charts. SPQR /20 is based on a cost model developed at ITT. In addition to cost, schedule, and staffing estimates, it...cases and test runs required, and the effectiveness of pre-test and test activities. SPQR /20 also predicts enhancement and maintenance activities. C

Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

2014-07-01

The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

Applicability of the Social Development Model to Urban Ethnic Minority Youth: Examining the Relationship between External Constraints, Family Socialization, and Problem Behaviors

PubMed Central

Choi, Yoonsun; Harachi, Tracy W.; Gillmore, Mary Rogers; Catalano, Richard F.

2011-01-01

The development of preventive interventions targeting adolescent problem behaviors requires a thorough understanding of risk and protective factors for such behaviors. However, few studies examine whether different cultural and ethnic groups share these factors. This study is an attempt to fill a gap in research by examining similarities and differences in risk factors across racial and ethnic groups. The social development model has shown promise in organizing predictors of problem behaviors. This article investigates whether a version of that model can be generalized to youth in different racial and ethnic groups (N = 2,055, age range from 11 to 15), including African American (n = 478), Asian Pacific Islander (API) American (n = 491), multiracial (n = 442), and European American (n = 644) youth. The results demonstrate that common risk factors can be applied to adolescents, regardless of their race and ethnicity. The findings also demonstrate that there are racial and ethnic differences in the magnitudes of relationships among factors that affect problem behaviors. Further study is warranted to develop a better understanding of these differential magnitudes. PMID:21625351

Air pollution and health risks due to vehicle traffic.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

2013-04-15

Traffic congestion increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality, and recent studies have shown excess morbidity and mortality for drivers, commuters and individuals living near major roadways. Presently, our understanding of the air pollution impacts from congestion on roads is very limited. This study demonstrates an approach to characterize risks of traffic for on- and near-road populations. Simulation modeling was used to estimate on- and near-road NO2 concentrations and health risks for freeway and arterial scenarios attributable to traffic for different traffic volumes during rush hour periods. The modeling used emission factors from two different models (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model and Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model version 6.2), an empirical traffic speed-volume relationship, the California Line Source Dispersion Model, an empirical NO2-NOx relationship, estimated travel time changes during congestion, and concentration-response relationships from the literature, which give emergency doctor visits, hospital admissions and mortality attributed to NO2 exposure. An incremental analysis, which expresses the change in health risks for small increases in traffic volume, showed non-linear effects. For a freeway, "U" shaped trends of incremental risks were predicted for on-road populations, and incremental risks are flat at low traffic volumes for near-road populations. For an arterial road, incremental risks increased sharply for both on- and near-road populations as traffic increased. These patterns result from changes in emission factors, the NO2-NOx relationship, the travel delay for the on-road population, and the extended duration of rush hour for the near-road population. This study suggests that health risks from congestion are potentially significant, and that additional traffic can significantly increase risks, depending on the type of road and other factors. Further, evaluations of risk associated with congestion must consider travel time, the duration of rush-hour, congestion-specific emission estimates, and uncertainties. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air pollution and health risks due to vehicle traffic

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

2014-01-01

Traffic congestion increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality, and recent studies have shown excess morbidity and mortality for drivers, commuters and individuals living near major roadways. Presently, our understanding of the air pollution impacts from congestion on roads is very limited. This study demonstrates an approach to characterize risks of traffic for on- and near-road populations. Simulation modeling was used to estimate on- and near-road NO2 concentrations and health risks for freeway and arterial scenarios attributable to traffic for different traffic volumes during rush hour periods. The modeling used emission factors from two different models (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model and Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model version 6.2), an empirical traffic speed–volume relationship, the California Line Source Dispersion Model, an empirical NO2–NOx relationship, estimated travel time changes during congestion, and concentration–response relationships from the literature, which give emergency doctor visits, hospital admissions and mortality attributed to NO2 exposure. An incremental analysis, which expresses the change in health risks for small increases in traffic volume, showed non-linear effects. For a freeway, “U” shaped trends of incremental risks were predicted for on-road populations, and incremental risks are flat at low traffic volumes for near-road populations. For an arterial road, incremental risks increased sharply for both on- and near-road populations as traffic increased. These patterns result from changes in emission factors, the NO2–NOx relationship, the travel delay for the on-road population, and the extended duration of rush hour for the near-road population. This study suggests that health risks from congestion are potentially significant, and that additional traffic can significantly increase risks, depending on the type of road and other factors. Further, evaluations of risk associated with congestion must consider travel time, the duration of rush-hour, congestion-specific emission estimates, and uncertainties. PMID:23500830

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werner, Mike

Why this utility? After years of upgrading the Java Runtime Environment (JRE) or the Java Software Development Kit (JDK/SDK), a Windows computer becomes littered with so many old versions that the machine may become a security risk due to exploits targeted at those older versions. This utility helps mitigate those vulnerabilities by searching for, and removing, versions 1.3.x thru 1.7.x of the Java JRE and/or JDK/SDK.

Assessing preferences about the DNR order: does it depend on how you ask?

PubMed

Percy, M E; Llewellyn-Thomas, H

1995-01-01

Despite increasing emphasis on advance directives, there has been little methodologic work to assess preferences about the "do not resuscitate" (DNR) order. This developmental work assessed, in a non-patient group, the performance of a probability-trade-off task designed to assess DNR attitudes, in terms of framing effects and stability of preferences. 105 female nursing students each completed one of two versions of the task. In version I (n = 58), the trade-off moved to increasingly negative descriptions of the outcomes of resuscitation (decreasing chance of survival and increasing risk of brain death), whereas in version II (n = 47), the trade-off moved to increasingly positive descriptions. One week later, repeat assessments were obtained for versions I (n = 35) and II (n = 28). The DNR preference scores were lower and more stable when the task moved to increasingly positive descriptions; perhaps this version of the task tends to weaken risk aversion. These results imply that care should be used in applying a probability trade-off task to the assessment of DNR preferences, since artefactual effects could be induced.

Development of a GIS-based spill management information system.

PubMed

Martin, Paul H; LeBoeuf, Eugene J; Daniel, Edsel B; Dobbins, James P; Abkowitz, Mark D

2004-08-30

Spill Management Information System (SMIS) is a geographic information system (GIS)-based decision support system designed to effectively manage the risks associated with accidental or intentional releases of a hazardous material into an inland waterway. SMIS provides critical planning and impact information to emergency responders in anticipation of, or following such an incident. SMIS couples GIS and database management systems (DBMS) with the 2-D surface water model CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.1 and the air contaminant model Computer-Aided Management of Emergency Operations (CAMEO) while retaining full GIS risk analysis and interpretive capabilities. Live 'real-time' data links are established within the spill management software to utilize current meteorological information and flowrates within the waterway. Capabilities include rapid modification of modeling conditions to allow for immediate scenario analysis and evaluation of 'what-if' scenarios. The functionality of the model is illustrated through a case study of the Cheatham Reach of the Cumberland River near Nashville, TN.

Spectral Classes for FAA's Integrated Noise Model Version 6.0.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-07

The starting point in any empirical model such as the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) : Integrated Noise Model (INM) is a reference data base. In Version 5.2 and in previous versions : the reference data base consisted solely of a set of no...

Development of assessment tools to measure organizational support for employee health.

PubMed

Golaszewski, Thomas; Barr, Donald; Pronk, Nico

2003-01-01

To develop systems that measure and effect organizational support for employee health. Multiple studies and developmental projects were reviewed that show the process of instrument development, metric quality testing, utilization within intervention studies, and prediction modeling efforts. Demographic patterns indicate high support levels and relationships of subsections to various employee health risks. Successes with the initial version have given rise to 2 additional evaluation tools. The availability of these systems illustrates how ecological models can be practically applied. Such efforts contribute to the paradigm shift in worksite health promotion that focuses on the organization as the target of intervention.

Validation of Version 3.0 of the Breast Cancer Genetics Referral Screening Tool (B-RST™).

PubMed

Bellcross, Cecelia; Hermstad, April; Tallo, Christine; Stanislaw, Christine

2018-05-08

Despite increased awareness of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer among clinicians and the public, many BRCA1/2 mutation carriers remain unaware of their risk status. The Breast Cancer Genetics Referral Screening Tool (B-RST™) was created and validated to easily identify individuals at increased risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer for referral to cancer genetics services. The purpose of this study was to revise B-RST™ to maximize sensitivity against BRCA1/2 mutation status. We analyzed pedigrees of 277 individuals who had undergone BRCA1/2 testing to determine modifications to the B-RST™ 2.0 algorithm that would maximize sensitivity for mutations, while maintaining simplicity. We used McNemar's chi-square test to compare validation measures between the revised version (3.0) and the 2.0 version. Algorithmic changes made to B-RST™ 2.0 increased the sensitivity against BRCA1/2 mutation analysis from 71.1 to 94.0% (P < 0.0001). While specificity decreased, all screen-positive individuals were appropriate for cancer genetics referral, the primary purpose of the tool. Despite calls for BRCA1/2 population screening, there remains a critical need to identify those most at risk who should receive cancer genetics services. B-RST™ version 3.0 demonstrates high sensitivity for BRCA1/2 mutations, yet remains a simple and quick screening tool for at-risk individuals.

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Optimization Version 4.0 Functional Improvements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arellano, John; Young, M.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.

2016-01-01

The IMMs ability to assess mission outcome risk levels relative to available resources provides a unique capability to provide guidance on optimal operational medical kit and vehicle resources. Post-processing optimization allows IMM to optimize essential resources to improve a specific model outcome such as maximization of the Crew Health Index (CHI), or minimization of the probability of evacuation (EVAC) or the loss of crew life (LOCL). Mass and or volume constrain the optimized resource set. The IMMs probabilistic simulation uses input data on one hundred medical conditions to simulate medical events that may occur in spaceflight, the resources required to treat those events, and the resulting impact to the mission based on specific crew and mission characteristics. Because IMM version 4.0 provides for partial treatment for medical events, IMM Optimization 4.0 scores resources at the individual resource unit increment level as opposed to the full condition-specific treatment set level, as done in version 3.0. This allows the inclusion of as many resources as possible in the event that an entire set of resources called out for treatment cannot satisfy the constraints. IMM Optimization version 4.0 adds capabilities that increase efficiency by creating multiple resource sets based on differing constraints and priorities, CHI, EVAC, or LOCL. It also provides sets of resources that improve mission-related IMM v4.0 outputs with improved performance compared to the prior optimization. The new optimization represents much improved fidelity that will improve the utility of the IMM 4.0 for decision support.

Dynamic coupling of regional atmosphere to biosphere in the new generation regional climate system model REMO-iMOVE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, C.; Rechid, D.; Jacob, D.

2013-05-01

The main objective of this study is the coupling of the regional climate model REMO to a 3rd generation land surface scheme and the evaluation of the new model version of REMO, called REMO with interactive MOsaic-based VEgetation: REMO-iMOVE. Attention is paid to the documentation of the technical aspects of the new model constituents and the coupling mechanism. We compare simulation results of REMO-iMOVE and of the reference version REMO2009, to investigate the sensitivity of the regional model to the new land surface scheme. An 11 yr climate model run (1995-2005), forced with ECMWF ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions, over Europe in 0.44° resolution of both model versions was carried out, to represent present day European climate. The result of these experiments are compared to multiple temperature, precipitation, heat flux and leaf area index observation data, to determine the differences in the model versions. The new model version has further the ability to model net primary productivity for the given plant functional types. This new feature is thoroughly evaluated by literature values of net primary productivity of different plant species in European climatic regions. The new model version REMO-iMOVE is able to model the European climate in the same quality as the parent model version REMO2009 does. The differences in the results of the two model versions stem from the differences in the dynamics of vegetation cover and density and can be distinct in some regions, due to the influences of these parameters to the surface heat and moisture fluxes. The modeled inter-annual variability in the phenology as well as the net primary productivity lays in the range of observations and literature values for most European regions. This study also reveals the need for a more sophisticated soil moisture representation in the newly developed model version REMO-iMOVE to be able to treat the differences in plant functional types. This gets especially important if the model will be used in dynamic vegetation studies.

Breast Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Breast cancer prevention strategies include avoiding known risks, having a healthy lifestyle, and medications or surgery for those at high risk. Learn more about breast cancer prevention, risks and protective factors, and how to estimate risk in this expert-reviewed summary.

Cancer Genetics Risk Assessment and Counseling (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Expert-reviewed information summary in which cancer risk perception, risk communication, and risk counseling are discussed. The summary also contains information about recording and analyzing a family history of cancer and factors to consider when offering genetic testing.

Nifedipine as a uterine relaxant for external cephalic version: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kok, Marjolein; Bais, Joke M; van Lith, Jan M; Papatsonis, Dimitri M; Kleiverda, Gunilla; Hanny, Dahrs; Doornbos, Johannes P; Mol, Ben W; van der Post, Joris A

2008-08-01

To estimate the effectiveness of nifedipine as a uterine relaxant during external cephalic version to correct breech presentation. In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, women with a singleton fetus in breech presentation and a gestational age of 36 weeks or more were eligible for enrollment. Participating women received two doses of either nifedipine 10 mg or placebo, 30 and 15 minutes before the external cephalic version attempt. The primary outcome was a cephalic-presenting fetus immediately after the procedure. Secondary outcome measures were cephalic presentation at delivery, mode of delivery, and adverse events. A sample size of 292 was calculated to provide 80% power to detect a 17% improvement of the external cephalic version success rate, assuming a placebo group rate of 40% and alpha of .05. Outcome data for 310 of 320 randomly assigned participants revealed no significant difference in external cephalic version success rates between treatment (42%) and control group (37%) (relative risk 1.1, 95%; 95% confidence interval 0.85-1.5). The cesarean delivery rate was 51% in the treatment group and 46% in the control group (relative risk 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.4). Nifedipine did not significantly improve the success of external cephalic version. Future use of nifedipine to improve the outcome of external cephalic version should be limited to large clinical trials.

Introducing Risk Management Techniques Within Project Based Software Engineering Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Port, Daniel; Boehm, Barry

2002-03-01

In 1996, USC switched its core two-semester software engineering course from a hypothetical-project, homework-and-exam course based on the Bloom taxonomy of educational objectives (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation). The revised course is a real-client team-project course based on the CRESST model of learning objectives (content understanding, problem solving, collaboration, communication, and self-regulation). We used the CRESST cognitive demands analysis to determine the necessary student skills required for software risk management and the other major project activities, and have been refining the approach over the last 5 years of experience, including revised versions for one-semester undergraduate and graduate project course at Columbia. This paper summarizes our experiences in evolving the risk management aspects of the project course. These have helped us mature more general techniques such as risk-driven specifications, domain-specific simplifier and complicator lists, and the schedule as an independent variable (SAIV) process model. The largely positive results in terms of review of pass / fail rates, client evaluations, product adoption rates, and hiring manager feedback are summarized as well.

Community Practice Implementation of a Self-administered Version of PREMM1,2,6 to Assess Risk for Lynch Syndrome.

PubMed

Luba, Daniel G; DiSario, James A; Rock, Colleen; Saraiya, Devki; Moyes, Kelsey; Brown, Krystal; Rushton, Kristen; Ogara, Maydeen M; Raphael, Mona; Zimmerman, Dayna; Garrido, Kimmie; Silguero, Evelyn; Nelson, Jonathan; Yurgelun, Matthew B; Kastrinos, Fay; Wenstrup, Richard J; Syngal, Sapna

2018-01-01

Lynch syndrome is a genetic disorder that greatly increases risk for colorectal and other cancers, although it is underdiagnosed. Prediction of MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6 (PREMM 1,2,6 ) is a web-based tool that analyzes individuals' personal/family histories of cancer to quantify their likelihood of carrying a germline mutation associated with Lynch syndrome. We investigated the feasibility of systematic risk assessment for Lynch syndrome in a community gastroenterology practice using a patient-completed version of PREMM 1,2,6 . PREMM 1,2,6 was adapted into a computer tablet version designed for self-administration by patients. Individuals presenting to a community gastroenterology office and endoscopy facility in California completed the PREMM 1,2,6 assessment before their visit (n = 3134). The total study duration (8 months) comprised a 2-month initiation period (May 1-June 30, 2013) and a 6-month study period (July 1-December 31, 2013). Genetic counseling and germline analysis for mutations in genes associated with Lynch syndrome (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2, and EPCAM) were offered to individuals with PREMM 1,2,6 scores of 5% or higher. Patients and providers completed surveys to evaluate the feasibility and satisfaction with the process. Of the 3134 individuals assessed by PREMM 1,2,6 during the 6-month study period, 177 individuals (5.6%) had scores of 5% or higher. Of these, 146 individuals underwent genetic testing, along with 28 additional participants recruited nonconsecutively during the initiation period. Mutations associated with Lynch syndrome were detected in 3 of the 146 individuals (2.1%) with PREMM 1,2,6 scores of 5% or higher who underwent germline testing, and 3 of the 28 patients (10.7%) recruited during study initiation with PREMM 1,2,6 scores of 5% or higher. Of the participants who underwent genetic analysis, 98.6% stated that they understood the information provided to them. All of the surveyed providers stated that they were satisfied with the incorporation of PREMM 1,2,6 into their clinical practice, and that they would continue using it to assess risk for Lynch syndrome. A patient self-administered version of the PREMM 1,2,6 Lynch syndrome risk assessment model can be used systematically in community-based gastroenterology and endoscopy practices. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Lo, Joan C; Chandra, Malini; Ettinger, Bruce

2011-01-01

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SELENA - An open-source tool for seismic risk and loss assessment using a logic tree computation procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, S.; Lang, D. H.; Lindholm, C. D.

2010-03-01

The era of earthquake risk and loss estimation basically began with the seminal paper on hazard by Allin Cornell in 1968. Following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, the first studies placed strong emphasis on the prediction of human losses (number of casualties and injured used to estimate the needs in terms of health care and shelters in the immediate aftermath of a strong event). In contrast to these early risk modeling efforts, later studies have focused on the disruption of the serviceability of roads, telecommunications and other important lifeline systems. In the 1990s, the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) developed a tool (HAZUS ®99) for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), where the goal was to incorporate the best quantitative methodology in earthquake loss estimates. Herein, the current version of the open-source risk and loss estimation software SELENA v4.1 is presented. While using the spectral displacement-based approach (capacity spectrum method), this fully self-contained tool analytically computes the degree of damage on specific building typologies as well as the associated economic losses and number of casualties. The earthquake ground shaking estimates for SELENA v4.1 can be calculated or provided in three different ways: deterministic, probabilistic or based on near-real-time data. The main distinguishing feature of SELENA compared to other risk estimation software tools is that it is implemented in a 'logic tree' computation scheme which accounts for uncertainties of any input (e.g., scenario earthquake parameters, ground-motion prediction equations, soil models) or inventory data (e.g., building typology, capacity curves and fragility functions). The data used in the analysis is assigned with a decimal weighting factor defining the weight of the respective branch of the logic tree. The weighting of the input parameters accounts for the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties that will always follow the necessary parameterization of the different types of input data. Like previous SELENA versions, SELENA v4.1 is coded in MATLAB which allows for easy dissemination among the scientific-technical community. Furthermore, any user has access to the source code in order to adapt, improve or refine the tool according to his or her particular needs. The handling of SELENA's current version and the provision of input data is customized for an academic environment but which can then support decision-makers of local, state and regional governmental agencies in estimating possible losses from future earthquakes.

Integrating care for high-risk patients in England using the virtual ward model: lessons in the process of care integration from three case sites

PubMed Central

Lewis, Geraint; Vaithianathan, Rhema; Wright, Lorraine; Brice, Mary R; Lovell, Paul; Rankin, Seth; Bardsley, Martin

2013-01-01

Background Patients at high risk of emergency hospitalisation are particularly likely to experience fragmentation in care. The virtual ward model attempts to integrate health and social care by offering multidisciplinary case management to people at high predicted risk of unplanned hospitalisation. Objective To describe the care practice in three virtual ward sites in England and to explore how well each site had achieved meaningful integration. Method Case studies conducted in Croydon, Devon and Wandsworth during 2011–2012, consisting of semi-structured interviews, workshops, and site visits. Results Different versions of the virtual wards intervention had been implemented in each site. In Croydon, multidisciplinary care had reverted back to one-to-one case management. Conclusions To integrate successfully, virtual ward projects should safeguard the multidisciplinary nature of the intervention, ensure the active involvement of General Practitioners, and establish feedback processes to monitor performance such as the number of professions represented at each team meeting. PMID:24250284

External validation of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk prediction tool in older community-dwelling people attending general practice: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wallace, Emma; McDowell, Ronald; Bennett, Kathleen; Fahey, Tom; Smith, Susan M

2016-11-14

Emergency admission is associated with the potential for adverse events in older people and risk prediction models are available to identify those at highest risk of admission. The aim of this study was to externally validate and compare the performance of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk model and a modified version (incorporating a multimorbidity measure) in predicting emergency admission in older community-dwelling people. 15 general practices (GPs) in the Republic of Ireland. n=862, ≥70 years, community-dwelling people prospectively followed up for 2 years (2010-2012). Pra risk model (original and modified) calculated for baseline year where ≥0.5 denoted high risk (patient questionnaire, GP medical record review) of future emergency admission. Emergency admission over 1 year (GP medical record review). descriptive statistics, model discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). Of 862 patients, a total of 154 (18%) had ≥1 emergency admission(s) in the follow-up year. 63 patients (7%) were classified as high risk by the original Pra and of these 26 (41%) were admitted. The modified Pra classified 391 (45%) patients as high risk and 103 (26%) were subsequently admitted. Both models demonstrated only poor discrimination (original Pra: c-statistic 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.70); modified Pra: c-statistic 0.67 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.72)). When categorised according to risk-category model, specificity was highest for the original Pra at cut-point of ≥0.5 denoting high risk (95%), and for the modified Pra at cut-point of ≥0.7 (95%). Both models overestimated the number of admissions across all risk strata. While the original Pra model demonstrated poor discrimination, model specificity was high and a small number of patients identified as high risk. Future validation studies should examine higher cut-points denoting high risk for the modified Pra, which has practical advantages in terms of application in GP. The original Pra tool may have a role in identifying higher-risk community-dwelling older people for inclusion in future trials aiming to reduce emergency admissions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Supplement to The User's Guide for The Stand Prognosis Model-version 5.0

Treesearch

William R. Wykoff

1986-01-01

Differences between Prognosis Model versions 4.0 and 5.0 are described. Additions to version 5.0 include an event monitor that schedules activities contingent on stand characteristics, a regeneration establishment model that predicts the structure of the regeneration stand following treatment, and a COVER model that predicts shrub development and total canopy cover....

Review and verification of CARE 3 mathematical model and code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, D. M.; Altschul, R. E.; Manke, J. W.; Nelson, D. L.

1983-01-01

The CARE-III mathematical model and code verification performed by Boeing Computer Services were documented. The mathematical model was verified for permanent and intermittent faults. The transient fault model was not addressed. The code verification was performed on CARE-III, Version 3. A CARE III Version 4, which corrects deficiencies identified in Version 3, is being developed.

BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2009-01-01

This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2017-02-14

This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

Psychometric Properties of the Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire Short-Form (PIUQ-SF-6) in a Nationally Representative Sample of Adolescents.

PubMed

Demetrovics, Zsolt; Király, Orsolya; Koronczai, Beatrix; Griffiths, Mark D; Nagygyörgy, Katalin; Elekes, Zsuzsanna; Tamás, Domokos; Kun, Bernadette; Kökönyei, Gyöngyi; Urbán, Róbert

2016-01-01

Despite the large number of measurement tools developed to assess problematic Internet use, numerous studies use measures with only modest investigation into their psychometric properties. The goal of the present study was to validate the short (6-item) version of the Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire (PIUQ) on a nationally representative adolescent sample (n = 5,005; mean age 16.4 years, SD = 0.87) and to determine a statistically established cut-off value. Data were collected within the framework of the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs project. Results showed an acceptable fit of the original three-factor structure to the data. In addition, a MIMIC model was carried out to justify the need for three distinct factors. The sample was divided into users at-risk of problematic Internet use and those with no-risk using a latent profile analysis. Two latent classes were obtained with 14.4% of adolescents belonging to the at-risk group. Concurrent and convergent validity were tested by comparing the two groups across a number of variables (i.e., time spent online, academic achievement, self-esteem, depressive symptoms, and preferred online activities). Using the at-risk latent profile analysis class as the gold standard, a cut-off value of 15 (out of 30) was suggested based on sensitivity and specificity analyses. In conclusion, the brief version of the (6-item) PIUQ also appears to be an appropriate measure to differentiate between Internet users at risk of developing problematic Internet use and those not at risk. Furthermore, due to its brevity, the shortened PIUQ is advantageous to utilize within large-scale surveys assessing many different behaviors and/or constructs by reducing the overall number of survey questions, and as a consequence, likely increasing completion rates.

Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Janssen, Mart P; Mvere, David A; Emmanuel, Jean C; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2016-06-01

Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high-income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The National Blood Service Zimbabwe (NBSZ) adapted a published incidence-window period (IWP) model, which has less demanding data requirements. In this study we assess the impact of various definitions of blood donor subpopulations and models on RR estimates. We compared the outcomes of two published models and an adapted NBSZ model. The Schreiber IWP model (Model 1), an amended version (Model 2), and an adapted NBSZ model (Model 3) were applied. Variably the three models include prevalence, incidence, preseroconversion intervals, mean lifetime risk, and person-years at risk. Annual mean RR estimates and 95% confidence intervals for each of the three models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were determined using NBSZ blood donor data from 2002 through 2011. The annual mean RR estimates for Models 1 through 3 were 1 in 6542, 5805, and 6418, respectively for HIV; 1 in 1978, 2027, and 1628 for HBV; and 1 in 9588, 15,126, and 7750, for HCV. The adapted NBSZ model provided comparable results to the published methods and these highlight the high occurrence of HBV in Zimbabwe. The adapted NBSZ model could be used as an alternative to estimate RRs when in settings where two repeat donations are not available. © 2016 AABB.

Simulation of modern climate with the new version of the INM RAS climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volodin, E. M.; Mortikov, E. V.; Kostrykin, S. V.; Galin, V. Ya.; Lykosov, V. N.; Gritsun, A. S.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Yakovlev, N. G.

2017-03-01

The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth's climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved.

Interviews with smokers about smokeless tobacco products, risk messages and news articles.

PubMed

Wackowski, Olivia A; Lewis, M Jane; Delnevo, Cristine D

2016-11-01

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) products and their communication have been topics of discussion in harm reduction debates, but little is known about smokers' perceptions of existing SLT risk messages. This study aimed to explore smokers' perceptions of SLT and snus products and news stories with different risk messages about them. We conducted interviews with 30 smokers assigned to read 1 of 3 constructed news stories about SLT and snus with different messages about their risks relative to cigarettes: (1) a 'favourable' version (describing SLT/snus as a 'safer' smoking alternative); (2) a 'cautious' version (describing SLT/snus as having various risks); and (3) a 'mixed' version (both stating SLT risks and potential reduced-risk benefits). Smokers felt somewhat more informed about snus after article reading and largely found quoted sources to be credible. Though some exposed to favourable SLT/snus messages appeared to modify their beliefs about the products' acceptability and risks, many were left unchanged given pre-existing SLT risk perceptions influenced by prior SLT warnings, observed effects in known users, and concerns about SLT's mode of use. Willingness to use/not use snus in the future was also influenced by non-risk-related factors (eg, preference for smoking rituals). Many referenced e-cigarettes as being safer and more attractive smoking alternatives. Exposure to reduced-risk SLT information may have some impact on smokers' SLT perceptions and interest, but this might be limited by a variety of negative SLT beliefs and growth of other smoking alternatives. Future research should explore SLT risk message effects with larger samples and different study designs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Interviews with smokers about smokeless tobacco products, risk messages, and news articles

PubMed Central

Lewis, M. Jane; Delnevo, Cristine D.

2015-01-01

Background Smokeless tobacco products (SLT) and their communication have been topics of discussion in harm reduction debates, but little is known about smokers’ perceptions of existing SLT risk messages. This study aimed to explore smokers’ perceptions of SLT and snus products and news stories with different risk messages about them. Methods We conducted interviews with 30 smokers assigned to read one of three constructed news stories about SLT and snus with different messages about their risks relative to cigarettes: 1) a “favorable” version (describing SLT/snus as a “safer” smoking alternative); 2) a “cautious” version (describing SLT/snus as having various risks); and 3) a “mixed” version (both stating SLT risks and potential reduced risk benefits). Results Smokers felt somewhat more informed about snus after article reading and largely found quoted sources to be credible. Though some exposed to favorable SLT/snus messages appeared to modify their beliefs about the products’ acceptability and risks, many were left unchanged given pre-existing SLT risk perceptions influenced by prior SLT warnings, observed effects in known users, and concerns about SLT’s mode of use. Willingness to use/not use snus in the future was also influenced by non-risk related factors (e.g., preference for smoking rituals). Many referenced e-cigarettes as being safer and more attractive smoking alternatives. Conclusions Exposure to reduced-risk SLT information may have some impact on smokers’ SLT perceptions and interest, but this might be limited by a variety of negative SLT beliefs and growth of other smoking alternatives. Future research should explore SLT risk message effects with larger samples and different study designs. PMID:26576840

The Benefits of Latent Variable Modeling to Develop Norms for a Translated Version of a Standardized Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seo, Hyojeong; Shaw, Leslie A.; Shogren, Karrie A.; Lang, Kyle M.; Little, Todd D.

2017-01-01

This article demonstrates the use of structural equation modeling to develop norms for a translated version of a standardized scale, the Supports Intensity Scale-Children's Version (SIS-C). The latent variable norming method proposed is useful when the standardization sample for a translated version is relatively small to derive norms…

Evolution of errors in the altimetric bathymetry model used by Google Earth and GEBCO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, K. M.; Smith, W. H. F.; Sandwell, D. T.

2010-09-01

We analyze errors in the global bathymetry models of Smith and Sandwell that combine satellite altimetry with acoustic soundings and shorelines to estimate depths. Versions of these models have been incorporated into Google Earth and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). We use Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) multibeam surveys not previously incorporated into the models as "ground truth" to compare against model versions 7.2 through 12.1, defining vertical differences as "errors." Overall error statistics improve over time: 50th percentile errors declined from 57 to 55 to 49 m, and 90th percentile errors declined from 257 to 235 to 219 m, in versions 8.2, 11.1 and 12.1. This improvement is partly due to an increasing number of soundings incorporated into successive models, and partly to improvements in the satellite gravity model. Inspection of specific sites reveals that changes in the algorithms used to interpolate across survey gaps with altimetry have affected some errors. Versions 9.1 through 11.1 show a bias in the scaling from gravity in milliGals to topography in meters that affected the 15-160 km wavelength band. Regionally averaged (>160 km wavelength) depths have accumulated error over successive versions 9 through 11. These problems have been mitigated in version 12.1, which shows no systematic variation of errors with depth. Even so, version 12.1 is in some respects not as good as version 8.2, which employed a different algorithm.

Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

PubMed

Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

2018-01-01

Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvements to NASA's Debris Assessment Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Opiela, J.; Johnson, Nicholas L.

2007-01-01

NASA's Debris Assessment Software (DAS) has been substantially revised and expanded. DAS is designed to assist NASA programs in performing orbital debris assessments, as described in NASA s Guidelines and Assessment Procedures for Limiting Orbital Debris. The extensive upgrade of DAS was undertaken to reflect changes in the debris mitigation guidelines, to incorporate recommendations from DAS users, and to take advantage of recent software capabilities for greater user utility. DAS 2.0 includes an updated environment model and enhanced orbital propagators and reentry-survivability models. The ORDEM96 debris environment model has been replaced by ORDEM2000 in DAS 2.0, which is also designed to accept anticipated revisions to the environment definition. Numerous upgrades have also been applied to the assessment of human casualty potential due to reentering debris. Routines derived from the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool, Version 6 (ORSAT 6), determine which objects are assessed to survive reentry, and the resulting risk of human casualty is calculated directly based upon the orbital inclination and a future world population database. When evaluating reentry risks, the user may enter up to 200 unique hardware components for each launched object, in up to four nested levels. This last feature allows the software to more accurately model components that are exposed below the initial breakup altitude. The new DAS 2.0 provides an updated set of tools for users to assess their mission s compliance with the NASA Safety Standard and does so with a clear and easy-to-understand interface. The new native Microsoft Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is a vast improvement over the previous DOS-based interface. In the new version, functions are more-clearly laid out, and the GUI includes the standard Windows-style Help functions. The underlying routines within the DAS code are also improved.

Risk factors for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery after successful external cephalic version.

PubMed

de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Bais, Joke M J; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben Willem; Kok, Marjolein

2016-01-01

Aim of this article is to examine if we could identify factors that predict cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery in women who had a successful external cephalic version. We used data from a previous randomized trial among 25 hospitals and their referring midwife practices in the Netherlands. With the data of this trial, we performed a cohort study among women attempting vaginal delivery after successful ECV. We evaluated whether maternal age, gestational age, parity, time interval between ECV and delivery, birth weight, neonatal gender, and induction of labor were predictive for a vaginal delivery on one hand or a CS or instrumental vaginal delivery on the other hand. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were calculated with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among 301 women who attempted vaginal delivery after a successful external cephalic version attempt, the cesarean section rate was 13% and the instrumental vaginal delivery rate 6%, resulting in a combined instrumental delivery rate of 19%. Nulliparity increased the risk of cesarean section (OR 2.7 (95% CI 1.2-6.1)) and instrumental delivery (OR 4.2 (95% CI 2.1-8.6)). Maternal age, gestational age at delivery, time interval between external cephalic version and delivery, birth weight and neonatal gender did not contribute to the prediction of failed spontaneous vaginal delivery. In our cohort of 301 women with a successful external cephalic version, nulliparity was the only one of seven factors that predicted the risk for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery.

A psychometric evaluation of the Swedish version of the Responses to Positive Affect questionnaire.

PubMed

Olofsson, Malin Elisabeth; Boersma, Katja; Engh, Johannes; Wurm, Matilda

2014-11-01

Previous research mainly focused on responses to negative affect in relation to depression, and less on responses to positive affect. Cognitive responses to positive affect are interesting in the context of emotion regulation and emotion disorders: positive rumination is associated to hypomania risk and bipolar disorder. There is to date no questionnaire in Swedish that captures the phenomena of cognitive response styles. The aim of this study was to investigate the replicability of the Responses to Positive Affect questionnaire (RPA) in a newly translated Swedish version and to test its psychometric properties. Swedish undergraduates (n = 111) completed a set of self-report questionnaires in a fixed order. The hypothesized three-factor model was largely replicated in the subscales Self-focused positive rumination, Emotion-focused positive rumination and Dampening. The two positive rumination subscales were strongly associated with each other and current positive affect. The subscales showed acceptable convergent and incremental validity with concurrent measures of depression, hypomania, anxiety, repetitive negative thinking, and positive and negative affect. The model explained 25% of the variance in hypomania, but fell short in the explanation of depression. The Swedish version of the RPA shows satisfactory reliability and initial findings from a student sample indicate that it is a valid measure comparable with the original RPA questionnaire. RESULTS give emphasis to the importance of further exploration of cognitive response styles in relation to psychopathology.

2011 Version 6.3 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2017, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.2 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 3

2011 Version 6.2 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2017, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.2 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 2.

2011 Version 6.1 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2018, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.1 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 1.

2011 Version 6.0 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2018, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.0 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 1

A global, open-source database of flood protection standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Aerts, Jeroen; Jongman, Brenden; Bouwer, Laurens; Winsemius, Hessel; de Moel, Hans; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Accurate flood risk estimation is pivotal in that it enables risk-informed policies in disaster risk reduction, as emphasized in the recent Sendai framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. To improve our understanding of flood risk, models are now capable to provide actionable risk information on the (sub)global scale. Still the accuracy of their results is greatly limited by the lack of information on standards of protection to flood that are actually in place; and researchers thus take large assumptions on the extent of protection. With our work we propose a first global, open-source database of FLOod PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, covering a range of spatial scales. FLOPROS is structured in three layers of information, and merges them into one consistent database: 1) the Design layer contains empirical information about the standard of protection presently in place; 2) the Policy layer contains intended protection standards from normative documents; 3) the Model layer uses a validated numerical approach to calculate protection standards for areas not covered in the other layers. The FLOPROS database can be used for more accurate risk assessment exercises across scales. As the database should be continually updated to reflect new interventions, we invite researchers and practitioners to contribute information. Further, we look for partners within the risk community to participate in additional strategies to implement the amount and accuracy of information contained in this first version of FLOPROS.

Modelling of Radiological Health Risks from Gold Mine Tailings in Wonderfonteinspruit Catchment Area, South Africa.

PubMed

Mathuthu, Manny; Kamunda, Caspah; Madhuku, Morgan

2016-06-07

Mining is one of the major causes of elevation of naturally-occurring radionuclide material (NORM) concentrations on the Earth's surface. The aim of this study was to evaluate the human risk associated with exposure to NORMs in soils from mine tailings around a gold mine. A broad-energy germanium detector was used to measure activity concentrations of these NORMs in 66 soil samples (56 from five mine tailings and 10 from the control area). The RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD) OFFSITE modeling program (version 3.1) was then used to estimate the radiation doses and the cancer morbidity risk of uranium-238 ((238)U), thorium-232 ((232)Th), and potassium-40 ((40)K) for a hypothetical resident scenario. According to RESRAD prediction, the maximum total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) during 100 years was found to be 0.0315 mSv/year at year 30, while the maximum total excess cancer morbidity risk for all the pathways was 3.04 × 10(-5) at year 15. The US Environmental Protection Agency considers acceptable for regulatory purposes a cancer risk in the range of 10(-6) to 10(-4). Therefore, results obtained from RESRAD OFFSITE code has shown that the health risk from gold mine tailings is within acceptable levels according to international standards.

Modelling of Radiological Health Risks from Gold Mine Tailings in Wonderfonteinspruit Catchment Area, South Africa

PubMed Central

Mathuthu, Manny; Kamunda, Caspah; Madhuku, Morgan

2016-01-01

Mining is one of the major causes of elevation of naturally-occurring radionuclide material (NORM) concentrations on the Earth’s surface. The aim of this study was to evaluate the human risk associated with exposure to NORMs in soils from mine tailings around a gold mine. A broad-energy germanium detector was used to measure activity concentrations of these NORMs in 66 soil samples (56 from five mine tailings and 10 from the control area). The RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD) OFFSITE modeling program (version 3.1) was then used to estimate the radiation doses and the cancer morbidity risk of uranium-238 (238U), thorium-232 (232Th), and potassium-40 (40K) for a hypothetical resident scenario. According to RESRAD prediction, the maximum total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) during 100 years was found to be 0.0315 mSv/year at year 30, while the maximum total excess cancer morbidity risk for all the pathways was 3.04 × 10−5 at year 15. The US Environmental Protection Agency considers acceptable for regulatory purposes a cancer risk in the range of 10−6 to 10−4. Therefore, results obtained from RESRAD OFFSITE code has shown that the health risk from gold mine tailings is within acceptable levels according to international standards. PMID:27338424

Federal Register Notice Announcing Public Meetings on Chemical Prioritization and Risk Evaluation Processes under the Amended TSCA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Pre-publication version of the Federal Register notice announcing public meetings on Processes for Risk Evaluation and Chemical Prioritization for Risk Evaluation under the Amended Toxic Substances Control Act.

Measurement and Modeling of Ecosystem Risk and Recovery for In Situ Treatment of Contaminated Sediments. Phase 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

boundary layer and xPE is the PE thickness (cm). For passive samplers deployed in the sediment bed , the HOC uptake kinetics is also a function of...in sediment beds using performance reference compounds (PRCs) (Adams, Lohmann et al. 2007, Tomaszewski and Luthy 2008, Fernandez, MacFarlane et al...version program was tested for user-friendliness as well as performance. Any reported bugs were fixed, and suggestions on the user-friendliness were

Software Supportability Risk Assessment in OT&E (Operational Test and Evaluation): Literature Review, Current Research Review, and Data Base Assemblage.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-28

variables before simula- tion of model - Search for reality checks a, - Express uncertainty as a probability density distribution. a. H2 a, H-22 TWIF... probability that the software con- tains errors. This prior is updated as test failure data are accumulated. Only a p of 1 (software known to contain...discusssed; both parametric and nonparametric versions are presented. It is shown by the author that the bootstrap underlies the jackknife method and

Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

PubMed

Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

2016-01-01

To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The substance use risk profile scale: a scale measuring traits linked to reinforcement-specific substance use profiles.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woicik, P.A.; Stewart, S.H.; Pihl, R.O.

The Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) is based on a model of personality risk for substance abuse in which four personality dimensions (hopelessness, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity, and sensation seeking) are hypothesized to differentially relate to specific patterns of substance use. The current series of studies is a preliminary exploration of the psychometric properties of the SURPS in two populations (undergraduate and high school students). In study 1, an analysis of the internal structure of two versions of the SURPS shows that the abbreviated version best reflects the 4-factor structure. Concurrent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the SURPS is supportedmore » by convergent/divergent relationships between the SURPS subscales and other theoretically relevant personality and drug use criterion measures. In Study 2, the factorial structure of the SURPS is confirmed and evidence is provided for its test-retest reliability and validity with respect to measuring personality vulnerability to reinforcement-specific substance use patterns. In Study 3, the SURPS was administered in a more youthful population to test its sensitivity in identifying younger problematic drinkers. The results from the current series of studies demonstrate support for the reliability and construct validity of the SURPS, and suggest that four personality dimensions may be linked to substance-related behavior through different reinforcement processes. This brief assessment tool may have important implications for clinicians and future research.« less

The Substance Use Risk Profile Scale: a scale measuring traits linked to reinforcement-specific substance use profiles.

PubMed

Woicik, Patricia A; Stewart, Sherry H; Pihl, Robert O; Conrod, Patricia J

2009-12-01

The Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) is based on a model of personality risk for substance abuse in which four personality dimensions (hopelessness, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity, and sensation seeking) are hypothesized to differentially relate to specific patterns of substance use. The current series of studies is a preliminary exploration of the psychometric properties of the SURPS in two populations (undergraduate and high school students). In study 1, an analysis of the internal structure of two versions of the SURPS shows that the abbreviated version best reflects the 4-factor structure. Concurrent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the SURPS is supported by convergent/divergent relationships between the SURPS subscales and other theoretically relevant personality and drug use criterion measures. In Study 2, the factorial structure of the SURPS is confirmed and evidence is provided for its test-retest reliability and validity with respect to measuring personality vulnerability to reinforcement-specific substance use patterns. In Study 3, the SURPS was administered in a more youthful population to test its sensitivity in identifying younger problematic drinkers. The results from the current series of studies demonstrate support for the reliability and construct validity of the SURPS, and suggest that four personality dimensions may be linked to substance-related behavior through different reinforcement processes. This brief assessment tool may have important implications for clinicians and future research.

[Multicentre, prospective cohort study, to validate the Italian version of the Braden Q scale for the risk of the pressure sores in newborns and up to 8 years old children].

PubMed

Chiari, Paolo; Poli, Marco; Magli, Claudia; Bascelli, Emanuele; Rocchi, Roberto; Bolognini, Silvia; Tartari, Piero; Armuzzi, Roberta; Rossi, Gianna; Peghetti, Angela; Biavati, Catia; Fontana, Mirella; Gazineo, Domenica; Cordella, Simona; Tiozzo, Emanuela; Ciliento, Gaetano; Carta, Giovanna; Taddia, Patrizia

2012-01-01

Multicenter prospective cohort study, to validate the Italian version of the Braden Q scale for the risk of pressure sores in newborns and up to 8 years old children. Children admitted to Intensive care Units (ICU), oncology and neurology/neurosurgery wards are at risk of developing pressure sores. To validate the Italian version of the Braden Q scale for the assessment of the risk of developing pressure sores in children. Children from 21 days to 8 years, admitted to intensive and sub intensive units were recruited. Premature babies, children admitted with a pressure sore and with a story of congenital cardiomiopathy were excluded. In this cohort, multicentre and with repeated measurements study, the first assessment was performed after 24 hours from hospital admission, using the Braden Q Scale (Suddaby's version). The pressure sores were assessed with the Skin assessment Tool and staged according to the National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel. RESULTS. On the 157 children 524 observation were conducted. The incidence of pressure sores was 17.2%. Only the analysis on specific subgroups of patients showed a good diagnostic accuracy: 71.4% on children 3-8 years; 85.6% in sub intensive wards. The Braden Q scale may be reliably used and shows a good diagnostic accuracy in children 3-8 years of age admitted to sub-intensive, neurology, oncology and heamatology wards.

2007 Version 5.0 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Preparation of Emissions Inventories for the Version 5.0, 2007 Emissions Modeling Platform describes how emissions based on the 2008 NEI, version 2 and were processed to represent the year 2007 in support of air quality modeling of the PM NAAQS.

INM, integrated noise model, version 4.11 : user's guide, supplement

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-12-01

The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, in support of the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, has developed Version 4.11 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM). This User's Guide is a supplement to INM, Version 3...

Work Engagement among Rescue Workers: Psychometric Properties of the Portuguese UWES

PubMed Central

Sinval, Jorge; Marques-Pinto, Alexandra; Queirós, Cristina; Marôco, João

2018-01-01

Rescue workers have a stressful and risky occupation where being engaged is crucial to face physical and emotional risks in order to help other persons. This study aims to estimate work engagement levels of rescue workers (namely comparing nurses, firefighters, and police officers) and to assess the validity evidence related to the internal structure of the Portuguese versions of the UWES-17 and UWES-9, namely, dimensionality, measurement invariance between occupational groups, and reliability of the scores. To evaluate the dimensionality, we compared the fit of the three-factor model with the fit of a second-order model. A Portuguese version of the instrument was applied to a convenience sample of 3,887 rescue workers (50% nurses, 39% firefighters, and 11% police officers). Work engagement levels were moderate to high, with firefighters being the highest and nurses being the lowest engaged. Psychometric properties were evaluated in the three-factor original structure revealing acceptable fit to the data in the UWES-17, although the UWES-9 had better psychometric properties. Given the observed statistically significant correlations between the three original factors, we proposed a 2nd hierarchal structure that we named work engagement. The UWES-9 first-order model obtained full uniqueness measurement invariance, and the second-order model obtained partial (metric) second-order invariance. PMID:29403403

The Validity of the 16-Item Version of the Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ-16) to Screen for Ultra High Risk of Developing Psychosis in the General Help-Seeking Population

PubMed Central

Ising, Helga K.; Veling, Wim; Loewy, Rachel L.; Rietveld, Marleen W.; Rietdijk, Judith; Dragt, Sara; Klaassen, Rianne M. C.; Nieman, Dorien H.; Wunderink, Lex; Linszen, Don H.; van der Gaag, Mark

2012-01-01

In order to bring about implementation of routine screening for psychosis risk, a brief version of the Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ; Loewy et al., 2005) was developed and tested in a general help-seeking population. We assessed a consecutive patient sample of 3533 young adults who were help-seeking for nonpsychotic disorders at the secondary mental health services in the Hague with the PQ. We performed logistic regression analyses and CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector decision tree analysis to shorten the original 92 items. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to examine the psychometric properties of the PQ-16. In the general help-seeking population, a cutoff score of 6 or more positively answered items on the 16-item version of the PQ produced correct classification of Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental State (Yung et al., 2005) psychosis risk/clinical psychosis in 44% of the cases, distinguishing Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS) diagnosis from no CAARMS diagnosis with high sensitivity (87%) and specificity (87%). These results were comparable to the PQ-92. The PQ-16 is a good self-report screen for use in secondary mental health care services to select subjects for interviewing for psychosis risk. The low number of items makes it quite appropriate for screening large help-seeking populations, thus enhancing the feasibility of detection and treatment of ultra high-risk patients in routine mental health services. PMID:22516147

Esophageal Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Esophageal cancer prevention strategies include avoiding risk factors like alcohol and tobacco. Learn more about risk factors and possible protective factors for esophageal cancer in this expert-reviewed summary.

A Spanish-Language Risk Perception Survey for Developing Diabetes: Translation Process and Assessment of Psychometric Properties.

PubMed

Joiner, Kevin L; Sternberg, Rosa Maria; Kennedy, Christine; Chen, Jyu-Lin; Fukuoka, Yoshimi; Janson, Susan L

2016-12-01

Create a Spanish-language version of the Risk Perception Survey for Developing Diabetes (RPS-DD) and assess psychometric properties. The Spanish-language version was created through translation, harmonization, and presentation to the tool's original author. It was field tested in a foreignborn Latino sample and properties evaluated in principal components analysis. Personal Control, Optimistic Bias, and Worry multi-item Likert subscale responses did not cluster together. A clean solution was obtained after removing two Personal Control subscale items. Neither the Personal Disease Risk scale nor the Environmental Health Risk scale responses loaded onto single factors. Reliabilities ranged from .54 to .88. Test of knowledge performance varied by item. This study contributes to evidence of validation of a Spanish-language RPS-DD in foreign-born Latinos.

Liver (Hepatocellular) Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Liver (hepatocellular) cancer prevention strategies include avoiding risk factors and vaccinating against hepatitis B. Risk factors include hepatitis B and C infection, cirrhosis, and aflatoxin. Get detailed information about risk factors and preventing liver cancer in this clinician summary.

Cigarette Smoking: Health Risks and How to Quit (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Cigarette smoking: Health Risks and How to Quit explains how never smoking and quitting result in decreased cancer and cancer deaths. Get detailed information about smoking risks and how to quit in this expert-reviewed summary.

Neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version: Cost analysis.

PubMed

Yamasato, Kelly; Kaneshiro, Bliss; Salcedo, Jennifer

2015-07-01

Neuraxial blockade (epidural or spinal anesthesia/analgesia) with external cephalic version increases the external cephalic version success rate. Hospitals and insurers may affect access to neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version, but the costs to these institutions remain largely unstudied. The objective of this study was to perform a cost analysis of neuraxial blockade use during external cephalic version from hospital and insurance payer perspectives. Secondarily, we estimated the effect of neuraxial blockade on cesarean delivery rates. A decision-analysis model was developed using costs and probabilities occurring prenatally through the delivery hospital admission. Model inputs were derived from the literature, national databases, and local supply costs. Univariate and bivariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess model robustness. Neuraxial blockade was cost saving to both hospitals ($30 per delivery) and insurers ($539 per delivery) using baseline estimates. From both perspectives, however, the model was sensitive to multiple variables. Monte Carlo simulation indicated neuraxial blockade to be more costly in approximately 50% of scenarios. The model demonstrated that routine use of neuraxial blockade during external cephalic version, compared to no neuraxial blockade, prevented 17 cesarean deliveries for every 100 external cephalic versions attempted. Neuraxial blockade is associated with minimal hospital and insurer cost changes in the setting of external cephalic version, while reducing the cesarean delivery rate. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2015 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version: Cost analysis

PubMed Central

Yamasato, Kelly; Kaneshiro, Bliss; Salcedo, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Aim Neuraxial blockade (epidural or spinal anesthesia/analgesia) with external cephalic version increases the external cephalic version success rate. Hospitals and insurers may affect access to neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version, but the costs to these institutions remain largely unstudied. The objective of this study was to perform a cost analysis of neuraxial blockade use during external cephalic version from hospital and insurance payer perspectives. Secondarily, we estimated the effect of neuraxial blockade on cesarean delivery rates. Methods A decision–analysis model was developed using costs and probabilities occurring prenatally through the delivery hospital admission. Model inputs were derived from the literature, national databases, and local supply costs. Univariate and bivariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess model robustness. Results Neuraxial blockade was cost saving to both hospitals ($30 per delivery) and insurers ($539 per delivery) using baseline estimates. From both perspectives, however, the model was sensitive to multiple variables. Monte Carlo simulation indicated neuraxial blockade to be more costly in approximately 50% of scenarios. The model demonstrated that routine use of neuraxial blockade during external cephalic version, compared to no neuraxial blockade, prevented 17 cesarean deliveries for every 100 external cephalic versions attempted. Conclusions Neuraxial blockade is associated with minimal hospital and insurer cost changes in the setting of external cephalic version, while reducing the cesarean delivery rate. PMID:25771920

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.;

Impact of a decision aid about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management on women's knowledge and intentions: a randomised online experimental survey study.

PubMed

Meisel, Susanne F; Freeman, Maddie; Waller, Jo; Fraser, Lindsay; Gessler, Sue; Jacobs, Ian; Kalsi, Jatinderpal; Manchanda, Ranjit; Rahman, Belinda; Side, Lucy; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne; Sanderson, Saskia C

2017-11-16

Risk stratification using genetic and other types of personal information could improve current best available approaches to ovarian cancer risk reduction, improving identification of women at increased risk of ovarian cancer and reducing unnecessary interventions for women at lower risk. Amounts of information given to women may influence key informed decision-related outcomes, e.g. knowledge. The primary aim of this study was to compare informed decision-related outcomes between women given one of two versions (gist vs. extended) of a decision aid about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management. This was an experimental survey study comparing the effects of brief (gist) information with lengthier, more detailed (extended) information on cognitions relevant to informed decision-making about participating in risk-stratified ovarian cancer screening. Women with no personal history of ovarian cancer were recruited through an online survey company and randomised to view the gist (n = 512) or extended (n = 519) version of a website-based decision aid and completed an online survey. Primary outcomes were knowledge and intentions. Secondary outcomes included attitudes (values) and decisional conflict. There were no significant differences between the gist and extended conditions in knowledge about ovarian cancer (time*group interaction: F = 0.20, p = 0.66) or intention to participate in ovarian cancer screening based on genetic risk assessment (t(1029) = 0.43, p = 0.67). There were also no between-groups differences in secondary outcomes. In the sample overall (n = 1031), knowledge about ovarian cancer increased from before to after exposure to the decision aid (from 5.71 to 6.77 out of a possible 10: t = 19.04, p < 0.001), and 74% of participants said that they would participate in ovarian cancer screening based on genetic risk assessment. No differences in knowledge or intentions were found between women who viewed the gist version and women who viewed the extended version of a decision aid about risk-stratified ovarian cancer screening. Knowledge increased for women in both decision aid groups. Further research is needed to determine the ideal volume and type of content for decision aids about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management. This study was registered with the ISRCTN registry; registration number: ISRCTN48627877 .

Pediatric Specialty Care Model for Management of Chronic Respiratory Failure: Cost and Savings Implications and Misalignment With Payment Models.

PubMed

Graham, Robert J; McManus, Michael L; Rodday, Angie Mae; Weidner, Ruth Ann; Parsons, Susan K

2018-05-01

To describe program design, costs, and savings implications of a critical care-based care coordination model for medically complex children with chronic respiratory failure. All program activities and resultant clinical outcomes were tracked over 4 years using an adapted version of the Care Coordination Measurement Tool. Patient characteristics, program activity, and acute care resource utilization were prospectively documented in the adapted version of the Care Coordination Measurement Tool and retrospectively cross-validated with hospital billing data. Impact on total costs of care was then estimated based on program outcomes and nationally representative administrative data. Tertiary children's hospital. Critical Care, Anesthesia, Perioperative Extension and Home Ventilation Program enrollees. None. The program provided care for 346 patients and families over the study period. Median age at enrollment was 6 years with more than half deriving secondary respiratory failure from a primary neuromuscular disease. There were 11,960 encounters over the study period, including 1,202 home visits, 673 clinic visits, and 4,970 telephone or telemedicine encounters. Half (n = 5,853) of all encounters involved a physician and 45% included at least one care coordination activity. Overall, we estimated that program interventions were responsible for averting 556 emergency department visits and 107 hospitalizations. Conservative monetization of these alone accounted for annual savings of $1.2-2 million or $407/pt/mo net of program costs. Innovative models, such as extension of critical care services, for high-risk, high-cost patients can result in immediate cost savings. Evaluation of financial implications of comprehensive care for high-risk patients is necessary to complement clinical and patient-centered outcomes for alternative care models. When year-to-year cost variability is high and cost persistence is low, these savings can be estimated from documentation within care coordination management tools. Means of financial sustainability, scalability, and equal access of such care models need to be established.

The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2013-12-01

The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that we need to evaluate policies based on their ability to lower risk, and to re-evaluate decisions over time as new knowledge is gained. Reference: R. G. Prinn, Development and Application of Earth System Models, Proceedings, National Academy of Science, June 15, 2012, http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1107470109.

Privacy in Pharmacogenetics: An End-to-End Case Study of Personalized Warfarin Dosing.

PubMed

Fredrikson, Matthew; Lantz, Eric; Jha, Somesh; Lin, Simon; Page, David; Ristenpart, Thomas

2014-08-01

We initiate the study of privacy in pharmacogenetics, wherein machine learning models are used to guide medical treatments based on a patient's genotype and background. Performing an in-depth case study on privacy in personalized warfarin dosing, we show that suggested models carry privacy risks, in particular because attackers can perform what we call model inversion : an attacker, given the model and some demographic information about a patient, can predict the patient's genetic markers. As differential privacy (DP) is an oft-proposed solution for medical settings such as this, we evaluate its effectiveness for building private versions of pharmacogenetic models. We show that DP mechanisms prevent our model inversion attacks when the privacy budget is carefully selected . We go on to analyze the impact on utility by performing simulated clinical trials with DP dosing models. We find that for privacy budgets effective at preventing attacks, patients would be exposed to increased risk of stroke, bleeding events, and mortality . We conclude that current DP mechanisms do not simultaneously improve genomic privacy while retaining desirable clinical efficacy, highlighting the need for new mechanisms that should be evaluated in situ using the general methodology introduced by our work.

Privacy in Pharmacogenetics: An End-to-End Case Study of Personalized Warfarin Dosing

PubMed Central

Fredrikson, Matthew; Lantz, Eric; Jha, Somesh; Lin, Simon; Page, David; Ristenpart, Thomas

2014-01-01

We initiate the study of privacy in pharmacogenetics, wherein machine learning models are used to guide medical treatments based on a patient’s genotype and background. Performing an in-depth case study on privacy in personalized warfarin dosing, we show that suggested models carry privacy risks, in particular because attackers can perform what we call model inversion: an attacker, given the model and some demographic information about a patient, can predict the patient’s genetic markers. As differential privacy (DP) is an oft-proposed solution for medical settings such as this, we evaluate its effectiveness for building private versions of pharmacogenetic models. We show that DP mechanisms prevent our model inversion attacks when the privacy budget is carefully selected. We go on to analyze the impact on utility by performing simulated clinical trials with DP dosing models. We find that for privacy budgets effective at preventing attacks, patients would be exposed to increased risk of stroke, bleeding events, and mortality. We conclude that current DP mechanisms do not simultaneously improve genomic privacy while retaining desirable clinical efficacy, highlighting the need for new mechanisms that should be evaluated in situ using the general methodology introduced by our work. PMID:27077138

Author Correction: Targeted gadofullerene for sensitive magnetic resonance imaging and risk-stratification of breast cancer.

PubMed

Han, Zheng; Wu, Xiaohui; Roelle, Sarah; Chen, Chuheng; Schiemann, William P; Lu, Zheng-Rong

2018-01-08

In the original version of this Article, the penultimate sentence of the Abstract incorrectly read 'The dose of the contrast agent for effective molecular MRI is only slightly lower than that of ZD2-Cy5.5 (0.5 µmol kg -1 ) in fluorescence imaging.' The correct version states 'higher' in place of 'lower'. This error has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Validation of French and German versions of a Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire among young Swiss males, and its relationship with substance use.

PubMed

Dupuis, Marc; Studer, Joseph; Henchoz, Yves; Deline, Stéphane; Baggio, Stéphanie; N'Goran, Alexandra; Mohler-Kuo, Meichun; Gmel, Gerhard

2016-02-01

This study main purpose was the validation of both French and German versions of a Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire. The sample group comprised 5065 Swiss men from the "Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors." Multigroup Confirmatory factor analysis showed that a three-factor model fits the data well, which substantiates the generalizability of Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire factor structure, regardless of the language. The Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire demonstrated excellent homogeneity (α = 95) and split-half reliability (r = .96). The Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire was sensitive to community size and participants' financial situation, confirming that it also measures real social conditions. Finally, weak but frequent correlations between Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire and alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis dependence were measured. © The Author(s) 2014.

Functional Behavioral Assessment-Based Interventions. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2016

2016-01-01

This intervention report presents findings from a systematic review of "functional behavioral assessment-based interventions" conducted using the WWC Procedures and Standards Handbook, version 3.0, and the Children Identified With or At Risk for an Emotional Disturbance review protocol, version 3.0. Functional behavioral assessment (FBA)…

An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach and its application in the cadastral management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yangdong; Han, Zhen; Liao, Zhongping

2009-10-01

Spatiality, temporality, legality, accuracy and continuality are characteristic of cadastral information, and the cadastral management demands that the cadastral data should be accurate, integrated and updated timely. It's a good idea to build an effective GIS management system to manage the cadastral data which are characterized by spatiality and temporality. Because no sound spatio-temporal data models have been adopted, however, the spatio-temporal characteristics of cadastral data are not well expressed in the existing cadastral management systems. An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach is first proposed from the angle of event and version. Then with the help of it, an event-version-based spatio-temporal cadastral data model is built to represent spatio-temporal cadastral data. At last, the previous model is used in the design and implementation of a spatio-temporal cadastral management system. The result of the application of the system shows that the event-version-based spatio-temporal data model is very suitable for the representation and organization of cadastral data.

Comparison of experiment with calculations using curvature-corrected zero and two equation turbulence models for a two-dimensional U-duct

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monson, D. J.; Seegmiller, H. L.; McConnaughey, P. K.

1990-06-01

In this paper experimental measurements are compared with Navier-Stokes calculations using seven different turbulence models for the internal flow in a two-dimensional U-duct. The configuration is representative of many internal flows of engineering interst that experience strong curvature. In an effort to improve agreement, this paper tests several versions of the two-equation k-epsilon turbulence model including the standard version, an extended version with a production range time scale, and a version that includes curvature time scales. Each is tested in its high and low Reynolds number formulations. Calculations using these new models and the original mixing length model are compared here with measurements of mean and turbulence velocities, static pressure and skin friction in the U-duct at two Reynolds numbers. The comparisons show that only the low Reynolds number version of the extended k-epsilon model does a reasonable job of predicting the important features of this flow at both Reynolds numbers tested.

Cancer Genetics Risk Assessment and Counseling (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Cancer genetics risk assessment and genetic counseling includes family history, psychosocial assessments, and education on hereditary cancer syndromes, testing, and risk. Get more information including the ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic testing in this summary for clinicians.

Solar Advisor Model User Guide for Version 2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilman, P.; Blair, N.; Mehos, M.

2008-08-01

The Solar Advisor Model (SAM) provides a consistent framework for analyzing and comparing power system costs and performance across the range of solar technologies and markets, from photovoltaic systems for residential and commercial markets to concentrating solar power and large photovoltaic systems for utility markets. This manual describes Version 2.0 of the software, which can model photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies for electric applications for several markets. The current version of the Solar Advisor Model does not model solar heating and lighting technologies.

Badhwar - O'Neill 2014 Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux Model Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neill, P. M.; Golge, S.; Slaba, T. C.

2014-01-01

The Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) model is based on GCR measurements from particle detectors. The model has mainly been used by NASA to certify microelectronic systems and the analysis of radiation health risks to astronauts in space missions. The BON14 model numerically solves the Fokker-Planck differential equation to account for particle transport in the heliosphere due to diffusion, convection, and adiabatic deceleration under the assumption of a spherically symmetric heliosphere. The model also incorporates an empirical time delay function to account for the lag of the solar activity to reach the boundary of the heliosphere. This technical paper describes the most recent improvements in parameter fits to the BON model (BON14). Using a comprehensive measurement database, it is shown that BON14 is significantly improved over the previous version, BON11.

CARE 3, Version 4 enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, L. A.; Stiffler, J. J.

1985-01-01

The enhancements and error corrections to CARE III Version 4 are listed. All changes to Version 4 with the exception of the internal redundancy model were implemented in Version 5. Version 4 is the first public release version for execution on the CDC Cyber 170 series computers. Version 5 is the second release version and it is written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 for execution on the DEC VAX 11/700 series computers and many others.

External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S Guid; Mol, Ben W J; van der Post, Joris A

2008-11-01

To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies reporting on complications from an external cephalic version attempt for singleton breech pregnancies after 36 weeks of pregnancy were selected. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) from studies that reported both on complications as well as on the position of the fetus immediately after the procedure. We found 84 studies, reporting on 12,955 version attempts that reported on external cephalic version-related complications. The pooled complication rate was 6.1% (95% CI 4.7-7.8), 0.24% for serious complications (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.34) and 0.35% for emergency cesarean deliveries (95% CI 0.26-0.47). Complications were not related to external cephalic version outcome (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93-1.7). External cephalic version is a safe procedure. Complications are not related to the fetal position after external cephalic version.

Estimates of common ragweed pollen emission and dispersion over Europe using RegCM-pollen model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Solmon, F.; Vautard, R.; Hamaoui-Laguel, L.; Torma, Cs. Zs.; Giorgi, F.

2015-11-01

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hayfever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen emission and transport module in the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 using the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5. In the online model environment where climate is integrated with dispersion and vegetation production, pollen emissions are calculated based on the modelling of plant distribution, pollen production, species-specific phenology, flowering probability, and flux response to meteorological conditions. A pollen tracer model is used to describe pollen advective transport, turbulent mixing, dry and wet deposition. The model is then applied and evaluated on a European domain for the period 2000-2010. To reduce the large uncertainties notably due to ragweed density distribution on pollen emission, a calibration based on airborne pollen observations is used. Resulting simulations show that the model captures the gross features of the pollen concentrations found in Europe, and reproduce reasonably both the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering season and associated pollen concentrations measured over Europe. The model can explain 68.6, 39.2, and 34.3 % of the observed variance in starting, central, and ending dates of the pollen season with associated root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 4.7, 3.9, and 7.0 days, respectively. The correlation between simulated and observed daily concentrations time series reaches 0.69. Statistical scores show that the model performs better over the central Europe source region where pollen loads are larger. From these simulations health risks associated common ragweed pollen spread are then evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels. The total risk area with concentration above 5 grains m-3 takes up 29.5 % of domain. The longest exposure time occurs on Pannonian Plain, where the number of days per year with the daily concentration above 20 grains m-3 exceeds 30.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures.

PubMed

Emond, Claude; Ruiz, Patricia; Mumtaz, Moiz

2017-01-15

Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable elimination half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THE AIR QUALITY FORECASTING VERSION OF CMAQ (CMAQ-F)

EPA Science Inventory

The air quality forecast version of the Community Modeling Air Quality (CMAQ) model (CMAQ-F) was developed from the public release version of CMAQ (available from http://www.cmascenter.org), and is running operationally at the National Weather Service's National Centers for Envir...

Screening disordered eating in a representative sample of the German population: Usefulness and psychometric properties of the German SCOFF questionnaire.

PubMed

Richter, Felicitas; Strauss, Bernhard; Braehler, Elmar; Adametz, Luise; Berger, Uwe

2017-04-01

The prevention of eating disorders and the identification of high-risk individuals are essential for the public health sector. There is need for sensitive and specific screening instruments of disordered eating that can be applied in universal samples as an initial step into disease prevention. The SCOFF is a screening instrument for disordered eating, frequently used in international and cross-cultural contexts to detect individuals at risk. The objective of this research is to evaluate whether the SCOFF can be used as a screening tool for disordered eating in universal samples. This is the first study which examined the psychometric properties of the German version of the SCOFF in a general population sample. A representative sample (N=2527) of the German population, aged 14-95years, was recruited. Psychometric properties were determined including reliability, concurrent and construct validity, and factor structure. The prevalence of disordered eating was assessed. The prevalence of disordered eating in the general population was 10%. Using the established cutoff point of ≥2, values for diagnostic accuracy were 26% (sensitivity), 97% (specificity), 80% (positive predictive value), and 74% (negative predictive value). Factorial analyses revealed an excellent model fit of a unidimensional model. Due to its low sensitivity and a high percentage of false negatives, there are limitations in using the German version of the SCOFF in general population samples with wide age ranges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer Risk Map for the Surface of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

We discuss calculations of the median and 95th percentile cancer risks on the surface of Mars for different solar conditions. The NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model is used to estimate gender and age specific cancer incidence and mortality risks for astronauts exploring Mars. Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code, and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. In the transport of particles through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution is implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each elevation on Mars. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Astronaut cancer risks are mapped on the global topography of Mars, which was measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. Variation of cancer risk on the surface of Mars is due to a 16-km elevation range, and the large difference is obtained between the Tharsis Montes (Ascraeus, Pavonis, and Arsia) and the Hellas impact basin. Cancer incidence risks are found to be about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for all astronauts and breast cancer risk for female astronauts. The number of safe days on Mars to be below radiation limits at the 95th percent confidence level is reported for several Mission design scenarios.

Harnessing the theoretical foundations of the exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models to quantify parameter uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

PubMed

Schmidt, Philip J; Pintar, Katarina D M; Fazil, Aamir M; Topp, Edward

2013-09-01

Dose-response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose-response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second-order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose-response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta-Poisson dose-response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta-Poisson dose-response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta-Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta-Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta-Poisson dose-response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low-dose data. This region includes beta-Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model. Version 2.0; User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Etheridge, Melvin; Plugge, Joana; Retina, Nusrat

1998-01-01

The Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 (FAM 2.0), is a discrete event simulation model designed to support analysis of alternative concepts in air traffic management and control. FAM 2.0 was developed by the Logistics Management Institute (LMI) a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) contract. This document provides a guide for using the model in analysis. Those interested in making enhancements or modification to the model should consult the companion document, Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 Technical Description.

Parallel computation for biological sequence comparison: comparing a portable model to the native model for the Intel Hypercube.

PubMed

Nadkarni, P M; Miller, P L

1991-01-01

A parallel program for inter-database sequence comparison was developed on the Intel Hypercube using two models of parallel programming. One version was built using machine-specific Hypercube parallel programming commands. The other version was built using Linda, a machine-independent parallel programming language. The two versions of the program provide a case study comparing these two approaches to parallelization in an important biological application area. Benchmark tests with both programs gave comparable results with a small number of processors. As the number of processors was increased, the Linda version was somewhat less efficient. The Linda version was also run without change on Network Linda, a virtual parallel machine running on a network of desktop workstations.

Consumer Understanding, Preferences, and Responses to Different Versions of Drug Safety Messages in the United States: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

McCormack, Lauren; Craig Lefebvre, R; Bann, Carla; Taylor, Olivia; Rausch, Paula

2016-02-01

As part of its mission, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) communicates with the public regularly about the benefits and risks of prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. Effectively communicating risk, however, is a significant public health challenge. To better understand how different populations understand information communicated by the FDA about drug safety, we conducted a randomized experiment to examine comprehension and other measures of effectiveness of drug safety messages that occurred in a post-market surveillance phase. We used an Internet panel survey of 1244 consumers, of whom 58% used prescription drugs in the past year. Half of the sample panel was randomized to read a previous FDA Drug Safety Communication (DSC) with the drug name changed, and the other half was randomized to read a revised version of the same DSC. We examined how making certain modifications to the way drug risk information is communicated has an impact on comprehension and behavioral intentions, including the user's likelihood of discontinuing the drug. We also studied how comprehension varied by respondent characteristics, health literacy skills, risk perceptions, and trust in the message. Based on a five-item comprehension index, the revised version of the message was associated with significantly greater comprehension of the information relative to the standard version (63 vs 52% correct, p < 0.001). Significantly more respondents found the revised version to be clear (82 vs 73%, p < 0.000), while fewer in that group reported learning something new (78% vs 84%, p = 0.015). No significant differences emerged between the two groups in terms of the message being informative, convincing, or helpful. We found no significant differences between the two groups in terms of behavioral intentions, risk perception, and trust. We found that making plain language changes to the DSC significantly increased consumers' level of comprehension of its content, providing support for ongoing use and further exploration of these strategies in pharmacovigilance communication research. The study findings have important implications for future drug safety and other communication messages related to prescription drugs.

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Screening and Risk Factors Using Decision Tree: Results of Data Mining.

PubMed

Habibi, Shafi; Ahmadi, Maryam; Alizadeh, Somayeh

2015-03-18

The aim of this study was to examine a predictive model using features related to the diabetes type 2 risk factors. The data were obtained from a database in a diabetes control system in Tabriz, Iran. The data included all people referred for diabetes screening between 2009 and 2011. The features considered as "Inputs" were: age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). Moreover, we used diagnosis as "Class". We applied the "Decision Tree" technique and "J48" algorithm in the WEKA (3.6.10 version) software to develop the model. After data preprocessing and preparation, we used 22,398 records for data mining. The model precision to identify patients was 0.717. The age factor was placed in the root node of the tree as a result of higher information gain. The ROC curve indicates the model function in identification of patients and those individuals who are healthy. The curve indicates high capability of the model, especially in identification of the healthy persons. We developed a model using the decision tree for screening T2DM which did not require laboratory tests for T2DM diagnosis.

T-HERPS Version 1.0 User's Guide for Risk to Amphibians and Reptiles from Pesticides

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

T-HERPS estimates dietary exposure and risk to terrestrial-phase amphibians and reptiles from pesticide use. Currently approved for assessing exposure and risk to the California red-legged frog and terrestrial-phase herptiles with similar dietary behavior

Finding workers, offenders, or students most at-risk for violence: actuarial tests save lives and resources.

PubMed

Zagar, Robert John; Kovach, Joseph W; Basile, Benjamin; Hughes, John Russell; Grove, William M; Busch, Kenneth G; Zablocki, Michael; Osnowitz, William; Neuhengen, Jonas; Liu, Yutong; Zagar, Agata Karolina

2013-12-01

147 adults (107 men, 40 women) and 89 adolescents (61 boys, 28 girls), selected randomly from referrals and volunteers, were given the Ammons Quick Test (QT), the Beck Suicide Scale (BSS), the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory Second (MMPI-2) or Adolescent Versions (MMPI-A), the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices, and the Standard Predictor (SP) of Violence Potential Adult or Adolescent Versions. The goals were to: (a) demonstrate computer and paper-and-pencil tests correlated; (b) validate tests to identify at-risk for violence; (c) show that identifying at-risk saves lives and resources; and (d) find which industries benefited from testing at-risk. Paper-and-pencil vs. computer test correlations (.83-.99), sensitivity (.97-.98), and specificity (.50-.97) were computed. Testing at-risk saves lives and resources. Critical industries for testing at-risk individuals may include airlines, energy generating industries, insurance, military, nonprofit-religious, prisoners, trucking or port workers, and veterans.

Risk Factors for Sexual Aggression in Young Men: An Expansion of the Confluence Model

PubMed Central

Abbey, Antonia; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J.; LeBreton, James M.

2011-01-01

There are many explanations for high rates of sexual aggression, with no one theory dominating the field. This study extends past research by evaluating an expanded version of the confluence model with a community sample. One hour audio computer-assisted self-interviews were completed by 470 young single men. Using structural equation analyses, delinquency, hostile masculinity, impersonal sex, and misperception of women’s sexual cues were positively and directly associated with the number of sexually aggressive acts committed. There were also indirect effects of childhood victimization, personality traits associated with subclinical levels of psychopathy, and alcohol consumption. These findings demonstrate the usefulness of the confluence model, as well as the importance of broadening this theory to include additional constructs. PMID:21678429

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

2014-12-01

To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates can have a large impact on the risk profile for the area. Wellington, another area of high exposure is particularly sensitive to how the Hikurangi subduction zone and the Wellington fault are modeled. Minor changes on these sources have substantial impacts for the risk profile of the city and the country at large.

Stomach Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Stomach (gastric) cancer risk factors include smoking and H. pylori. Learn about these and other risk factors for stomach cancer and how to prevent stomach cancer in this expert-reviewed and evidence-based summary.

Short- and medium-term efficacy of a Web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention for adults including cognitive and environmental feedback: randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Springvloet, Linda; Lechner, Lilian; de Vries, Hein; Candel, Math J J M; Oenema, Anke

2015-01-19

Web-based, computer-tailored nutrition education interventions can be effective in modifying self-reported dietary behaviors. Traditional computer-tailored programs primarily targeted individual cognitions (knowledge, awareness, attitude, self-efficacy). Tailoring on additional variables such as self-regulation processes and environmental-level factors (the home food environment arrangement and perception of availability and prices of healthy food products in supermarkets) may improve efficacy and effect sizes (ES) of Web-based computer-tailored nutrition education interventions. This study evaluated the short- and medium-term efficacy and educational differences in efficacy of a cognitive and environmental feedback version of a Web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention on self-reported fruit, vegetable, high-energy snack, and saturated fat intake compared to generic nutrition information in the total sample and among participants who did not comply with dietary guidelines (the risk groups). A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a basic (tailored intervention targeting individual cognition and self-regulation processes; n=456), plus (basic intervention additionally targeting environmental-level factors; n=459), and control (generic nutrition information; n=434) group. Participants were recruited from the general population and randomly assigned to a study group. Self-reported fruit, vegetable, high-energy snack, and saturated fat intake were assessed at baseline and at 1- (T1) and 4-months (T2) postintervention using online questionnaires. Linear mixed model analyses examined group differences in change over time. Educational differences were examined with group×time×education interaction terms. In the total sample, the basic (T1: ES=-0.30; T2: ES=-0.18) and plus intervention groups (T1: ES=-0.29; T2: ES=-0.27) had larger decreases in high-energy snack intake than the control group. The basic version resulted in a larger decrease in saturated fat intake than the control intervention (T1: ES=-0.19; T2: ES=-0.17). In the risk groups, the basic version caused larger decreases in fat (T1: ES=-0.28; T2: ES=-0.28) and high-energy snack intake (T1: ES=-0.34; T2: ES=-0.20) than the control intervention. The plus version resulted in a larger increase in fruit (T1: ES=0.25; T2: ES=0.37) and a larger decrease in high-energy snack intake (T1: ES=-0.38; T2: ES=-0.32) than the control intervention. For high-energy snack intake, educational differences were found. Stratified analyses showed that the plus version was most effective for high-educated participants. Both intervention versions were more effective in improving some of the self-reported dietary behaviors than generic nutrition information, especially in the risk groups, among both higher- and lower-educated participants. For fruit intake, only the plus version was more effective than providing generic nutrition information. Although feasible, incorporating environmental-level information is time-consuming. Therefore, the basic version may be more feasible for further implementation, although inclusion of feedback on the arrangement of the home food environment and on availability and prices may be considered for fruit and, for high-educated people, for high-energy snack intake. Netherlands Trial Registry NTR3396; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=3396 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6VNZbdL6w).

Short- and Medium-Term Efficacy of a Web-Based Computer-Tailored Nutrition Education Intervention for Adults Including Cognitive and Environmental Feedback: Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Lechner, Lilian; de Vries, Hein; Candel, Math JJM; Oenema, Anke

2015-01-01

Background Web-based, computer-tailored nutrition education interventions can be effective in modifying self-reported dietary behaviors. Traditional computer-tailored programs primarily targeted individual cognitions (knowledge, awareness, attitude, self-efficacy). Tailoring on additional variables such as self-regulation processes and environmental-level factors (the home food environment arrangement and perception of availability and prices of healthy food products in supermarkets) may improve efficacy and effect sizes (ES) of Web-based computer-tailored nutrition education interventions. Objective This study evaluated the short- and medium-term efficacy and educational differences in efficacy of a cognitive and environmental feedback version of a Web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention on self-reported fruit, vegetable, high-energy snack, and saturated fat intake compared to generic nutrition information in the total sample and among participants who did not comply with dietary guidelines (the risk groups). Methods A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a basic (tailored intervention targeting individual cognition and self-regulation processes; n=456), plus (basic intervention additionally targeting environmental-level factors; n=459), and control (generic nutrition information; n=434) group. Participants were recruited from the general population and randomly assigned to a study group. Self-reported fruit, vegetable, high-energy snack, and saturated fat intake were assessed at baseline and at 1- (T1) and 4-months (T2) postintervention using online questionnaires. Linear mixed model analyses examined group differences in change over time. Educational differences were examined with group×time×education interaction terms. Results In the total sample, the basic (T1: ES=–0.30; T2: ES=–0.18) and plus intervention groups (T1: ES=–0.29; T2: ES=–0.27) had larger decreases in high-energy snack intake than the control group. The basic version resulted in a larger decrease in saturated fat intake than the control intervention (T1: ES=–0.19; T2: ES=–0.17). In the risk groups, the basic version caused larger decreases in fat (T1: ES=–0.28; T2: ES=–0.28) and high-energy snack intake (T1: ES=–0.34; T2: ES=–0.20) than the control intervention. The plus version resulted in a larger increase in fruit (T1: ES=0.25; T2: ES=0.37) and a larger decrease in high-energy snack intake (T1: ES=–0.38; T2: ES=–0.32) than the control intervention. For high-energy snack intake, educational differences were found. Stratified analyses showed that the plus version was most effective for high-educated participants. Conclusions Both intervention versions were more effective in improving some of the self-reported dietary behaviors than generic nutrition information, especially in the risk groups, among both higher- and lower-educated participants. For fruit intake, only the plus version was more effective than providing generic nutrition information. Although feasible, incorporating environmental-level information is time-consuming. Therefore, the basic version may be more feasible for further implementation, although inclusion of feedback on the arrangement of the home food environment and on availability and prices may be considered for fruit and, for high-educated people, for high-energy snack intake. Trial Registration Netherlands Trial Registry NTR3396; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=3396 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6VNZbdL6w). PMID:25599828

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

2003-04-01

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

Opium and bladder cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the odds ratios for opium use and the risk of bladder cancer

PubMed Central

Afshari, Mahdi; Janbabaei, Ghasem; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin

2017-01-01

Objective The association between opium use and bladder cancer has been investigated in many studies, with varying reporting results reported. This study aims to estimate the total odds ratio for the association between bladder cancer and opium consumption using meta-analysis. Methods The study was designed according to PRISMA guidelines. Two independent researchers searched for the relevant studies using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, OVID, Embase, and Google Scholar. After systematic screening of the studies identified during the first step, Cochrane risk of bias tool was determined for the selected studies. The case-control and the cohort studies were investigated to assess risk of bladder cancer due to opium use. In addition, the cross-sectional studies were analysed separately to assess frequency of opium consumption. These estimates were combined using the inverse variance method. Fixed or random effect models were applied to combine the point odds ratios. The heterogeneity between the primary results was assessed using the Cochran test and I-square index. The suspected factors for heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regression models. An Egger test was conducted to identify any probable publication bias. Forest plots illustrated the point and pooled estimates. All analyses were performed using Stata version 14 software and RevMan version 5.3. Results We included 17 primary studies (11 case-control, one cohort and five cross-sectional) in the final meta-analysis. The total odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for developing bladder cancer by opium use alone, and concurrent use of opium and cigarettes were estimated as 3.85 (3.05–4.87) and 5.7 (1.9–16.3) respectively. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for opium use with or without cigarette smoking was estimated as 5.3 (3.6–7.7). Conclusion This meta-analysis showed that opium use similar to cigarette smoking and maybe with similar mechanisms can be a risk factor for bladder cancer. It is therefore expected to be a risk factor for other cancers. PMID:28586371

Temporal and geographical external validation study and extension of the Mayo Clinic prediction model to predict eGFR in the younger population of Swiss ADPKD patients.

PubMed

Girardat-Rotar, Laura; Braun, Julia; Puhan, Milo A; Abraham, Alison G; Serra, Andreas L

2017-07-17

Prediction models in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) are useful in clinical settings to identify patients with greater risk of a rapid disease progression in whom a treatment may have more benefits than harms. Mayo Clinic investigators developed a risk prediction tool for ADPKD patients using a single kidney value. Our aim was to perform an independent geographical and temporal external validation as well as evaluate the potential for improving the predictive performance by including additional information on total kidney volume. We used data from the on-going Swiss ADPKD study from 2006 to 2016. The main analysis included a sample size of 214 patients with Typical ADPKD (Class 1). We evaluated the Mayo Clinic model performance calibration and discrimination in our external sample and assessed whether predictive performance could be improved through the addition of subsequent kidney volume measurements beyond the baseline assessment. The calibration of both versions of the Mayo Clinic prediction model using continuous Height adjusted total kidney volume (HtTKV) and using risk subclasses was good, with R 2 of 78% and 70%, respectively. Accuracy was also good with 91.5% and 88.7% of the predicted within 30% of the observed, respectively. Additional information regarding kidney volume did not substantially improve the model performance. The Mayo Clinic prediction models are generalizable to other clinical settings and provide an accurate tool based on available predictors to identify patients at high risk for rapid disease progression.

Psychosocial Risk Factors for Low Back Pain and Absenteeism among Slovenian Professional Drivers.

PubMed

Kresal, Friderika; Suklan, Jana; Roblek, Vasja; Jerman, Andrej; Meško, Maja

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to determine the most common psychosocial risk factors for absenteeism and the extent to which low back pain occurs among Slovenian professional drivers as result of various psychosocial risk factors. The study involved 275 professional drivers, mostly men (mean age 41.6 years). Statistical data analysis was conducted using SPSS package version 21, MS Excel version 2007 and Pajek, version 3. The main method for data processing was regression analysis. The results of the quantitative survey showed that lower back pain is mostly caused by lifting and carrying heavy loads, inadequate working conditions, poor physical fitness, regular nights out, shift work, and stress. Dissatisfaction with work, shift work and unsuitable working conditions significantly affect the incidence of low back pain. Absenteeism is influenced by factors such as dissatisfaction at work, disrespectful attitude of managers, unsuitable working conditions, personal dissatisfaction, lack of understanding of the partner, and enjoying nightlife on a regular basis. The study clarifies the unexplained holistic psychosocial risk factors and treatment effects on health in the population of professional drivers. Such factors can lead to absenteeism. The study also provides initial demonstration research in the Slovenian practice. Furthermore, it provides solutions in a holistic approach to solve the problem of risk factors management. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

The breech presentation and the vertex presentation following an external version represent risk factors for neonatal hip instability.

PubMed

Andersson, J E; Odén, A

2001-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency and type of hip-joint instability and the frequency of hip dislocation requiring treatment in neonates who had been lying in the breech presentation and were delivered vaginally after an external version or by caesarean section, and to compare them with neonates who were naturally in the vertex presentation. Breech presentations without ongoing labour were subjected to an attempted external version and, in cases where this proved unsuccessful or where labour had started, to deliver by caesarean section. None of the breech presentations was vaginally delivered. The anterior-dynamic ultrasound method was used to assess the hip-joint status of the neonates. Out of 6,571 foetuses, 257 were in breech presentation after 36 wk of pregnancy. Sixty-two were vaginally delivered following an external version to vertex presentation and 195 were delivered by caesarean section, 75 of these following unsuccessful attempts to perform a version. Treatment for congenital hip-joint dislocation was performed on 0.2%. Out of the breech presentations, 1.0% of those delivered by caesarean section were treated, while in those with vaginal delivery following an external version the treatment frequency was 3.2%. No case of late diagnosed hip dislocation was recorded. Significant differences in frequency of hip-joint instability and treatment were found between (i) neonates delivered in breech presentation and those delivered with vertex presentation, (ii) infants delivered in vertex presentation, naturally or after successful version, and (iii) those delivered by caesarean section with or without attempted external version and those delivered with vortex presentation. Breech presentation predisposes to increased hip instability. The instability is present prior to delivery and is certainly not a primary result of delivery forces. Both breech and vertex presentations following an external or spontaneous version should be considered as risk factors for neonatal hip instability.

Risk Perception and Risk-Taking Attitude: A Comparison between Hong Kong and Mainland Chinese Undergraduate Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheung, Hoi Yan; Wu, Joseph; Tao, Jun

2013-01-01

This paper compares risk perception and risk-taking attitude between Hong Kong and mainland China undergraduate students using a Chinese version of the 30-item domain-specific risk-taking (DOSPERT) scale (Blais and Weber 2006b). Compared with their counterparts from mainland China, Hong Kong university students reported higher levels of risk…

EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS WORKSHOP NEWMEDIA CD

EPA Science Inventory

This product is a CD-ROM version of the workshop, Effective Risk Management of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals, held in January 2002, in Cincinnati, Ohio. The goal of this workshop was to introduce the science and engineering behind managing the potential risk of suspected endocri...

Prediction of the Length of Upcoming Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakad, Bharati; Kakad, Amar; Ramesh, Durbha Sai

2017-12-01

The forecast of solar cycle (SC) characteristics is crucial particularly for several space-based missions. In the present study, we propose a new model for predicting the length of the SC. The model uses the information of the width of an autocorrelation function that is derived from the daily sunspot data for each SC. We tested the model on Versions 1 and 2 of the daily international sunspot number data for SCs 10 - 24. We found that the autocorrelation width Aw n of SC n during the second half of its ascending phase correlates well with the modified length that is defined as T_{cy}^{n+2} - Tan. Here T_{cy}^{n+2} and T_{ a}n are the length and ascent time of SCs n+2 and n, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficient between the model parameters is 0.93 (0.91) for Version 1 (Version 2) sunspot series. The standard errors in the observed and predicted lengths of the SCs for Version 1 and Version 2 data are 0.38 and 0.44 years, respectively. The advantage of the proposed model is that the predictions of the length of the upcoming two SCs ( i.e., n+1, n+2) are readily available at the time of the peak of SC n. The present model gives a forecast of 11.01, 10.52, and 11.91 years (11.01, 12.20, and 11.68 years) for the length of SCs 24, 25, and 26, respectively, for Version 1 (Version 2).

Spatio-energetic cross-talk in photon counting detectors: Numerical detector model (PcTK) and workflow for CT image quality assessment.

PubMed

Taguchi, Katsuyuki; Stierstorfer, Karl; Polster, Christoph; Lee, Okkyun; Kappler, Steffen

2018-05-01

The interpixel cross-talk of energy-sensitive photon counting x-ray detectors (PCDs) has been studied and an analytical model (version 2.1) has been developed for double-counting between neighboring pixels due to charge sharing and K-shell fluorescence x-ray emission followed by its reabsorption (Taguchi K, et al., Medical Physics 2016;43(12):6386-6404). While the model version 2.1 simulated the spectral degradation well, it had the following problems that has been found to be significant recently: (1) The spectrum is inaccurate with smaller pixel sizes; (2) the charge cloud size must be smaller than the pixel size; (3) the model underestimates the spectrum/counts for 10-40 keV; and (4) the model version 2.1 cannot handlen-tuple-counting withn > 2 (i.e., triple-counting or higher). These problems are inherent to the design of the model version 2.1; therefore, we developed a new model and addressed these problems in this study. We propose a new PCD cross-talk model (version 3.2; Pc TK for "photon counting toolkit") that is based on a completely different design concept from the previous version. It uses a numerical approach and starts with a 2-D model of charge sharing (as opposed to an analytical approach and a 1-D model with version 2.1) and addresses all of the four problems. The model takes the following factors into account: (1) shift-variant electron density of the charge cloud (Gaussian-distributed), (2) detection efficiency, (3) interactions between photons and PCDs via photoelectric effect, and (4) electronic noise. Correlated noisy PCD data can be generated using either a multivariate normal random number generator or a Poisson random number generator. The effect of the two parameters, the effective charge cloud diameter (d 0 ) and pixel size (d pix ), was studied and results were compared with Monte Carlo simulations and the previous model version 2.1. Finally, a script for the workflow for CT image quality assessment has been developed, which started with a few material density images, generated material-specific sinogram (line integrals) data, noisy PCD data with spectral distortion using the model version 3.2, and reconstructed PCD- CT images for four energy windows. The model version 3.2 addressed all of the four problems listed above. The spectra withd pix  = 56-113 μm agreed with that of Medipix3 detector withd pix  = 55-110 μm without charge summing mode qualitatively. The counts for 10-40 keV were larger than the previous model (version 2.1) and agreed with MC simulations very well (root-mean-square difference values with model version 3.2 were decreased to 16%-67% of the values with version 2.1). There were many non-zero off-diagonal elements withn-tuple-counting withn > 2 in the normalized covariance matrix of 3 × 3 neighboring pixels. Reconstructed images showed biases and artifacts attributed to the spectral distortion due to the charge sharing and fluorescence x rays. We have developed a new PCD model for spatio-energetic cross-talk and correlation between PCD pixels. The workflow demonstrated the utility of the model for general or task-specific image quality assessments for the PCD- CT.Note: The program (Pc TK) and the workflow scripts have been made available to academic researchers. Interested readers should visit the website (pctk.jhu.edu) or contact the corresponding author. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

TSARINA: A Computer Model for Assessing Conventional and Chemical Attacks on Airbases

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

IV, and has been updated to FORTRAN 77; it has been adapted to various computer systems, as was the widely used AIDA model and the previous versions of...conventional and chemical attacks on sortie generation. In the first version of TSARINA [1 2], several key additions were made to the AIDA model so that (1...various on-base resources, in addition to the estimates of hits and facility damage that are generated by the original AIDA model . The second version

Five-Year Outcomes from 3 Prospective Trials of Image-Guided Proton Therapy for Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendenhall, Nancy P., E-mail: menden@shands.ufl.edu; Hoppe, Bradford S.; Nichols, Romaine C.

2014-03-01

Purpose: To report 5-year clinical outcomes of 3 prospective trials of image-guided proton therapy for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 211 prostate cancer patients (89 low-risk, 82 intermediate-risk, and 40 high-risk) were treated in institutional review board-approved trials of 78 cobalt gray equivalent (CGE) in 39 fractions for low-risk disease, 78 to 82 CGE for intermediate-risk disease, and 78 CGE with concomitant docetaxel therapy followed by androgen deprivation therapy for high-risk disease. Toxicities were graded according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE), version 3.0. Median follow-up was 5.2 years. Results: Five-year rates of biochemical and clinicalmore » freedom from disease progression were 99%, 99%, and 76% in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients, respectively. Actuarial 5-year rates of late CTCAE, version 3.0 (or version 4.0) grade 3 gastrointestinal and urologic toxicity were 1.0% (0.5%) and 5.4% (1.0%), respectively. Median pretreatment scores and International Prostate Symptom Scores at >4 years posttreatment were 8 and 7, 6 and 6, and 9 and 8, respectively, among the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients. There were no significant changes between median pretreatment summary scores and Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite scores at >4 years for bowel, urinary irritative and/or obstructive, and urinary continence. Conclusions: Five-year clinical outcomes with image-guided proton therapy included extremely high efficacy, minimal physician-assessed toxicity, and excellent patient-reported outcomes. Further follow-up and a larger patient experience are necessary to confirm these favorable outcomes.« less

Validation of the Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM).

PubMed

Willis, Michael; Johansen, Pierre; Nilsson, Andreas; Asseburg, Christian

2017-03-01

The Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM) was developed to address study questions pertaining to the cost-effectiveness of treatment alternatives in the care of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Naturally, the usefulness of a model is determined by the accuracy of its predictions. A previous version of ECHO-T2DM was validated against actual trial outcomes and the model predictions were generally accurate. However, there have been recent upgrades to the model, which modify model predictions and necessitate an update of the validation exercises. The objectives of this study were to extend the methods available for evaluating model validity, to conduct a formal model validation of ECHO-T2DM (version 2.3.0) in accordance with the principles espoused by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), and secondarily to evaluate the relative accuracy of four sets of macrovascular risk equations included in ECHO-T2DM. We followed the ISPOR/SMDM guidelines on model validation, evaluating face validity, verification, cross-validation, and external validation. Model verification involved 297 'stress tests', in which specific model inputs were modified systematically to ascertain correct model implementation. Cross-validation consisted of a comparison between ECHO-T2DM predictions and those of the seminal National Institutes of Health model. In external validation, study characteristics were entered into ECHO-T2DM to replicate the clinical results of 12 studies (including 17 patient populations), and model predictions were compared to observed values using established statistical techniques as well as measures of average prediction error, separately for the four sets of macrovascular risk equations supported in ECHO-T2DM. Sub-group analyses were conducted for dependent vs. independent outcomes and for microvascular vs. macrovascular vs. mortality endpoints. All stress tests were passed. ECHO-T2DM replicated the National Institutes of Health cost-effectiveness application with numerically similar results. In external validation of ECHO-T2DM, model predictions agreed well with observed clinical outcomes. For all sets of macrovascular risk equations, the results were close to the intercept and slope coefficients corresponding to a perfect match, resulting in high R 2 and failure to reject concordance using an F test. The results were similar for sub-groups of dependent and independent validation, with some degree of under-prediction of macrovascular events. ECHO-T2DM continues to match health outcomes in clinical trials in T2DM, with prediction accuracy similar to other leading models of T2DM.

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.

1993-10-01

This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, modelsmore » are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.« less

A framework for expanding aqueous chemistry in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the development and implementation of an extendable aqueous-phase chemistry option (AQCHEM − KMT(I)) for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, version 5.1. Here, the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP), version 2.2.3, is used t...

Esophageal Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Esophageal cancer prevention strategies include avoiding risk factors like tobacco and alcohol. Get detailed information about factors that influence the risk of esophageal cancer and research aimed at preventing it in this summary for clinicians.

Development and validation of a generic finite element vehicle buck model for the analysis of driver rib fractures in real life nearside oblique frontal crashes.

PubMed

Iraeus, Johan; Lindquist, Mats

2016-10-01

Frontal crashes still account for approximately half of all fatalities in passenger cars, despite several decades of crash-related research. For serious injuries in this crash mode, several authors have listed the thorax as the most important. Computer simulation provides an effective tool to study crashes and evaluate injury mechanisms, and using stochastic input data, whole populations of crashes can be studied. The aim of this study was to develop a generic buck model and to validate this model on a population of real-life frontal crashes in terms of the risk of rib fracture. The study was conducted in four phases. In the first phase, real-life validation data were derived by analyzing NASS/CDS data to find the relationship between injury risk and crash parameters. In addition, available statistical distributions for the parameters were collected. In the second phase, a generic parameterized finite element (FE) model of a vehicle interior was developed based on laser scans from the A2MAC1 database. In the third phase, model parameters that could not be found in the literature were estimated using reverse engineering based on NCAP tests. Finally, in the fourth phase, the stochastic FE model was used to simulate a population of real-life crashes, and the result was compared to the validation data from phase one. The stochastic FE simulation model overestimates the risk of rib fracture, more for young occupants and less for senior occupants. However, if the effect of underestimation of rib fractures in the NASS/CDS material is accounted for using statistical simulations, the risk of rib fracture based on the stochastic FE model matches the risk based on the NASS/CDS data for senior occupants. The current version of the stochastic model can be used to evaluate new safety measures using a population of frontal crashes for senior occupants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel computation for biological sequence comparison: comparing a portable model to the native model for the Intel Hypercube.

PubMed Central

Nadkarni, P. M.; Miller, P. L.

1991-01-01

A parallel program for inter-database sequence comparison was developed on the Intel Hypercube using two models of parallel programming. One version was built using machine-specific Hypercube parallel programming commands. The other version was built using Linda, a machine-independent parallel programming language. The two versions of the program provide a case study comparing these two approaches to parallelization in an important biological application area. Benchmark tests with both programs gave comparable results with a small number of processors. As the number of processors was increased, the Linda version was somewhat less efficient. The Linda version was also run without change on Network Linda, a virtual parallel machine running on a network of desktop workstations. PMID:1807632

An updated Quantitative Water Air Sediment Interaction (QWASI) model for evaluating chemical fate and input parameter sensitivities in aquatic systems: application to D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) and PCB-180 in two lakes.

PubMed

Mackay, Donald; Hughes, Lauren; Powell, David E; Kim, Jaeshin

2014-09-01

The QWASI fugacity mass balance model has been widely used since 1983 for both scientific and regulatory purposes to estimate the concentrations of organic chemicals in water and sediment, given an assumed rate of chemical emission, advective inflow in water or deposition from the atmosphere. It has become apparent that an updated version is required, especially to incorporate improved methods of obtaining input parameters such as partition coefficients. Accordingly, the model has been revised and it is now available in spreadsheet format. Changes to the model are described and the new version is applied to two chemicals, D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) and PCB-180, in two lakes, Lake Pepin (MN, USA) and Lake Ontario, showing the model's capability of illustrating both the chemical to chemical differences and lake to lake differences. Since there are now increased regulatory demands for rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, these aspects are discussed and two approaches are illustrated. It is concluded that the new QWASI water quality model can be of value for both evaluative and simulation purposes, thus providing a tool for obtaining an improved understanding of chemical mass balances in lakes, as a contribution to the assessment of fate and exposure and as a step towards the assessment of risk. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

76 FR 35138 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-16

... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based Capital Stress Test, Version 5.0 AGENCY: Farm Credit... credit rating agency) in regulations addressing the Risk-Based Capital Stress Test (RBCST or stress test... Act required FCA to establish a risk- based capital stress test for Farmer Mac's portfolio.\\3\\ This...

Breast Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Risk factors for breast cancer are female sex and advancing age, inherited risk, breast density, obesity, alcohol consumption, and exposure to ionizing radiation. Interventions to prevent breast cancer include chemoprevention (e.g. SERMs, AIs), risk-reducing surgery (e.g. mastectomy, oophorectomy). Review the evidence on risk factors and interventions to prevent breast cancer in this expert-reviewed summary.

Evaluation and applications of the clinically significant change method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: implications for risk-change communication.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P

2015-02-01

We examined the use of the clinically significant change (CSC) method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and its implications for risk communication, in a combined sample of 945 treated sexual offenders from three international settings, followed up for a minimum 5 years post-release. The reliable change (RC) index was used to identify thresholds of clinically meaningful change and to create four CSC groups (already okay, recovered, improved, unchanged) based on VRS-SO dynamic scores and amount of change made. Outcome analyses demonstrated important CSC-group differences in 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism. However, when baseline risk was controlled via Cox regression survival analysis, the pattern and magnitude of CSC-group differences in sexual and violent recidivism changed to suggest that observed variation in recidivism base rates could be at least partly explained by pre-existing group differences in risk level. Implications for communication of risk-change information and applications to clinical practice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and assessment of a shortened Quality of Life in Childhood Epilepsy Questionnaire (QOLCE-55).

PubMed

Goodwin, Shane W; Lambrinos, Anastasia I; Ferro, Mark A; Sabaz, Mark; Speechley, Kathy N

2015-06-01

To develop and validate a shortened version of the Quality of Life in Childhood Epilepsy Questionnaire (QOLCE). A secondary aim was to compare baseline risk factors predicting health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in children newly diagnosed with epilepsy, as identified using the original and shortened version. Data came from the Health-Related Quality of Life in Children with Epilepsy Study (HERQULES, N = 373), a multicenter prospective cohort study. Principal component analysis reduced the number of items from the original QOLCE, and factor analysis was used to assess the factor structure of the shortened version. Convergent and divergent validity was assessed by correlating the Child Health Questionnaire (CHQ) with the shortened QOLCE. Multiple regression identified risk factors at diagnosis for HRQoL at 24 months. A four-factor, higher-order, 55-item solution was obtained. A total of 21 items were removed. The final model represents functioning in four dimensions of HRQoL: Cognitive, Emotional, Social, and Physical. The shortened QOLCE demonstrated acceptable fit: Bentler's Comparative Fit Index = 0.944; Tucker-Lewis Index = 0.942; root mean square approximation = 0.058 (90% CI: 0.056-0.061); weighted root mean square residuals (WRMR) = 1.582, and excellent internal consistency (α = 0.96, subscales α > 0.80). Factor loadings were good (first-order: λ = 0.66-0.93; higher-order λ = 0.66-0.85; p < 0.001 for all). The shortened QOLCE scores correlated strongly with similar subscales of the Child Health Questionnaire (ρ = 0.38-0.70) while correlating weakly with dissimilar subscales (ρ = 0.30-0.31). While controlling for HRQoL at diagnosis, predictors for better HRQoL at 24 months were the following: no cognitive problems reported (p = 0.001), better family functioning (p = 0.014), fewer family demands (p = 0.008), with an interaction between baseline HRQoL and cognitive problems (p = 0.011). Results offer initial evidence regarding reliability and validity of the proposed 55-item shortened version of the QOLCE (QOLCE-55). The QOLCE-55 produced results on risk factors consistent with those found using the original measure. Given the fewer items, QOLCE-55 may be a viable option reducing respondent burden when assessing HRQoL in children with epilepsy. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International League Against Epilepsy.

Psychopathy and community violence among civil psychiatric patients: results from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.

PubMed

Skeem, J L; Mulvey, E P

2001-06-01

Although psychopathy is recognized as a relatively strong risk factor for violence among inmates and mentally disordered offenders, few studies have examined the extent to which its predictive power generalizes to civil psychiatric samples. Using data on 1,136 patients from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment project, this study examined whether the 2 scales that underlie the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) measure a unique personality construct that predicts violence among civil patients. The results indicate that the PCL:SV is a relatively strong predictor of violence. The PCL:SV's predictive power is substantially reduced, but remains significant, after controlling for a host of covariates that reflect antisocial behavior and personality disorders other than psychopathy. However, the predictive power of the PCL:SV is not based on its assessment of the core traits of psychopathy, as traditionally construed. Implications for the 2-factor model that underlies the PCL measures and for risk assessment practice are discussed.

Implementing health information exchange for public health reporting: a comparison of decision and risk management of three regional health information organizations in New York state

PubMed Central

Phillips, Andrew B; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Merrill, Jacqueline A

2014-01-01

Health information exchange (HIE) is a significant component of healthcare transformation strategies at both the state and national levels. HIE is expected to improve care coordination, and advance public health, but implementation is massively complex and involves significant risk. In New York, three regional health information organizations (RHIOs) implemented an HIE use case for public health reporting by demonstrating capability to deliver accurate responses to electronic queries via a set of services called the Universal Public Health Node. We investigated process and outcomes of the implementation with a comparative case study. Qualitative analysis was structured around a decision and risk matrix. Although each RHIO had a unique operational model, two common factors influenced risk management and implementation success: leadership capable of agile decision-making and commitment to a strong organizational vision. While all three RHIOs achieved certification for the public health reporting, only one has elected to deploy a production version. PMID:23975626

Implementing health information exchange for public health reporting: a comparison of decision and risk management of three regional health information organizations in New York state.

PubMed

Phillips, Andrew B; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Merrill, Jacqueline A

2014-02-01

Health information exchange (HIE) is a significant component of healthcare transformation strategies at both the state and national levels. HIE is expected to improve care coordination, and advance public health, but implementation is massively complex and involves significant risk. In New York, three regional health information organizations (RHIOs) implemented an HIE use case for public health reporting by demonstrating capability to deliver accurate responses to electronic queries via a set of services called the Universal Public Health Node. We investigated process and outcomes of the implementation with a comparative case study. Qualitative analysis was structured around a decision and risk matrix. Although each RHIO had a unique operational model, two common factors influenced risk management and implementation success: leadership capable of agile decision-making and commitment to a strong organizational vision. While all three RHIOs achieved certification for the public health reporting, only one has elected to deploy a production version.

Exposure to Psychosocial Risk Factors at Work and the Incidence of Occupational Injuries: A Cohort Study in Spain.

PubMed

Julià, Mireia; Catalina-Romero, Carlos; Calvo-Bonacho, Eva; Benavides, Fernando G

2016-03-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between the exposure to psychosocial risk factors at work and the incidence of occupational injuries (OIs). A prospective dynamic cohort study (n = 16,693) of 1-year follow-up. Psychosocial risk factors at work were assessed with the Spanish version of Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire. Incidence rates of OI per 1000 workers-year were calculated and associations between psychosocial risk factors and OI were estimated by Poisson regression models. Unfavorable levels of esteem in men [rate ratio (RR) = 1.28], and unfavorable levels of social support and quality of leadership (RR = 1.87), psychological demands (RR = 2.20), and active work and possibilities for development (RR = 1.83) among women, were associated with OI incidence. Poor quality of psychosocial work environment increases the incidence of OI. Psychosocial intervention programs could be helpful in order to reduce OI incidence rates and their associated costs.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emond, Claude, E-mail: claude.emond@biosmc.com

Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable eliminationmore » half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. - Highlights: • The best available dioxin PBPK model for interpreting human biomonitoring data is presented. • The original PBPK model was recoded from acslX to the Berkeley Madonna (BM) platform. • Comparisons were made of the accuracy of the recoded model with the original model. • The model is a useful addition to the ATSDR's BM based PBPK toolkit that supports risk assessors. • The application of the model to real-life exposure data sets is illustrated.« less

Development of a mobbing short scale in the Gutenberg Health Study.

PubMed

Garthus-Niegel, Susan; Nübling, Matthias; Letzel, Stephan; Hegewald, Janice; Wagner, Mandy; Wild, Philipp S; Blettner, Maria; Zwiener, Isabella; Latza, Ute; Jankowiak, Sylvia; Liebers, Falk; Seidler, Andreas

2016-01-01

Despite its highly detrimental potential, most standard questionnaires assessing psychosocial stress at work do not include mobbing as a risk factor. In the German standard version of COPSOQ, mobbing is assessed with a single item. In the Gutenberg Health Study, this version was used together with a newly developed short scale based on the Leymann Inventory of Psychological Terror. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of these two measures, to compare them and to test their differential impact on relevant outcome parameters. This analysis is based on a population-based sample of 1441 employees participating in the Gutenberg Health Study. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and reliability analyses were used to assess the mobbing scale. To determine their predictive validities, multiple linear regression analyses with six outcome parameters and log-binomial regression models for two of the outcome aspects were run. Factor analyses of the five-item scale confirmed a one-factor solution, reliability was α = 0.65. Both the single-item and the five-item scales were associated with all six outcome scales. Effect sizes were similar for both mobbing measures. Mobbing is an important risk factor for health-related outcomes. For the purpose of psychosocial risk assessment in the workplace, both the single-item and the five-item constructs were psychometrically appropriate. Associations with outcomes were about equivalent. However, the single item has the advantage of parsimony, whereas the five-item construct depicts several distinct forms of mobbing.

AgroClimate: Simulating and Monitoring the Risk of Extreme Weather Events from a Crop Phenology Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.; Pequeno, D.; Staub, C. G.; Perry, C.

2016-12-01

Climate variability, particularly the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as dry spells and heat stress during sensitive crop developmental phases can substantially increase the prospect of reduced crop yields. Yield losses or crop failure risk due to stressful weather conditions vary mainly due to stress severity and exposure time and duration. The magnitude of stress effects is also crop specific, differing in terms of thresholds and adaptation to environmental conditions. To help producers in the Southeast USA mitigate and monitor the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events we developed a web-based tool that evaluates the risk of extreme weather events during the season taking into account the crop development stages. Producers can enter their plans for the upcoming season in a given field (e.g. crop, variety, planting date, acreage etc.), select or not a specific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, and will be presented with the probabilities (ranging from 0 -100%) of extreme weather events occurring during sensitive phases of the growing season for the selected conditions. The DSSAT models CERES-Maize, CROPGRO-Soybean, CROPGRO-Cotton, and N-Wheat phenology models have been translated from FORTRAN to a standalone versions in R language. These models have been tested in collaboration with Extension faculty and producers during the 2016 season and their usefulness for risk mitigation and monitoring evaluated. A companion AgroClimate app was also developed to help producers track and monitor phenology development during the cropping season.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE METAL FINISHING FACILITY RISK SCREENING TOOL (MFFRST)

EPA Science Inventory

Recently the US EPA completed the development of the first version of the Metal Finishing Facility Risk Screening Tool (MFFRST) and has made this product available to the general public. MFFRST calculates the air emissions from a metal plating line and determines the risk to bot...

Mode of childbirth and neonatal outcome after external cephalic version: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rosman, A N; Vlemmix, F; Ensing, S; Opmeer, B C; Te Hoven, S; Velzel, J; de Hundt, M; van den Berg, S; Rota, H; van der Post, J A M; Mol, B W J; Kok, M

2016-08-01

to assess the mode of childbirth and adverse neonatal outcomes in women with a breech presentation with or without an external cephalic version attempt, and to compare the mode of childbirth among women with successful ECV to women with a spontaneous cephalic presentation. prospective matched cohort study. 25 clusters (hospitals and its referring midwifery practices) in the Netherlands. Data of the Netherlands perinatal registry for the matched cohort. singleton pregnancies from January 2011 to August 2012 with a fetus in breech presentation and a childbirth from 36 weeks gestation onwards. Spontaneous cephalic presentations (selected from national registry 2009 and 2010) were matched in a 2:1 ratio to cephalic presentations after a successful version attempt. Matching criteria were maternal age, parity, gestational age at childbirth and fetal gender. Main outcomes were mode of childbirth and neonatal outcomes. of 1613 women eligible for external cephalic version, 1169 (72.5%) received an ECV attempt. The overall caesarean childbirth rate was significantly lower compared to women who did not receive a version attempt (57% versus 87%; RR 0.66 (0.62-0.70)). Women with a cephalic presentation after ECV compared to women with a spontaneous cephalic presentation had a decreased risk for instrumental vaginal childbirth (RR 0.52 (95% CI 0.29-0.94)) and an increased risk of overall caesarean childbirth (RR 1.7 (95%CI 1.2-2.5)). women who had a successful ECV are at increased risk for a caesarean childbirth but overall, ECV is an important tool to reduce the caesarean rate. ECV is an important tool to reduce the caesarean section rates. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

DOE PAGES

Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

2015-02-24

We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

Accounting for observation uncertainties in an evaluation metric of low latitude turbulent air-sea fluxes: application to the comparison of a suite of IPSL model versions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Servonnat, Jérôme; Găinuşă-Bogdan, Alina; Braconnot, Pascale

2017-09-01

Turbulent momentum and heat (sensible heat and latent heat) fluxes at the air-sea interface are key components of the whole energetic of the Earth's climate. The evaluation of these fluxes in the climate models is still difficult because of the large uncertainties associated with the reference products. In this paper we present an objective metric accounting for reference uncertainties to evaluate the annual cycle of the low latitude turbulent fluxes of a suite of IPSL climate models. This metric consists in a Hotelling T 2 test between the simulated and observed field in a reduce space characterized by the dominant modes of variability that are common to both the model and the reference, taking into account the observational uncertainty. The test is thus more severe when uncertainties are small as it is the case for sea surface temperature (SST). The results of the test show that for almost all variables and all model versions the model-reference differences are not zero. It is not possible to distinguish between model versions for sensible heat and meridional wind stress, certainly due to the large observational uncertainties. All model versions share similar biases for the different variables. There is no improvement between the reference versions of the IPSL model used for CMIP3 and CMIP5. The test also reveals that the higher horizontal resolution fails to improve the representation of the turbulent surface fluxes compared to the other versions. The representation of the fluxes is further degraded in a version with improved atmospheric physics with an amplification of some of the biases in the Indian Ocean and in the intertropical convergence zone. The ranking of the model versions for the turbulent fluxes is not correlated with the ranking found for SST. This highlights that despite the fact that SST gradients are important for the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, other factors such as wind speed, and air-sea temperature contrast play an important role in the representation of turbulent fluxes.

Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS) Development and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report is intended to provide an overview of beta version 1.0 of the implementation of a model of repeated measures data referred to as the Toxicodiffusion model. The implementation described here represents the first steps towards integration of the Toxicodiffusion model into the EPA benchmark dose software (BMDS). This version runs from within BMDS 2.0 using an option screen for making model selection, as is done for other models in the BMDS 2.0 suite. This report is intended to provide an overview of beta version 1.0 of the implementation of a model of repeated measures data referred to as the Toxicodiffusion model.

Psychometric Properties of the Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire Short-Form (PIUQ-SF-6) in a Nationally Representative Sample of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Demetrovics, Zsolt; Király, Orsolya; Koronczai, Beatrix; Griffiths, Mark D.; Nagygyörgy, Katalin; Elekes, Zsuzsanna; Tamás, Domokos; Kun, Bernadette; Kökönyei, Gyöngyi; Urbán, Róbert

2016-01-01

Despite the large number of measurement tools developed to assess problematic Internet use, numerous studies use measures with only modest investigation into their psychometric properties. The goal of the present study was to validate the short (6-item) version of the Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire (PIUQ) on a nationally representative adolescent sample (n = 5,005; mean age 16.4 years, SD = 0.87) and to determine a statistically established cut-off value. Data were collected within the framework of the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs project. Results showed an acceptable fit of the original three-factor structure to the data. In addition, a MIMIC model was carried out to justify the need for three distinct factors. The sample was divided into users at-risk of problematic Internet use and those with no-risk using a latent profile analysis. Two latent classes were obtained with 14.4% of adolescents belonging to the at-risk group. Concurrent and convergent validity were tested by comparing the two groups across a number of variables (i.e., time spent online, academic achievement, self-esteem, depressive symptoms, and preferred online activities). Using the at-risk latent profile analysis class as the gold standard, a cut-off value of 15 (out of 30) was suggested based on sensitivity and specificity analyses. In conclusion, the brief version of the (6-item) PIUQ also appears to be an appropriate measure to differentiate between Internet users at risk of developing problematic Internet use and those not at risk. Furthermore, due to its brevity, the shortened PIUQ is advantageous to utilize within large-scale surveys assessing many different behaviors and/or constructs by reducing the overall number of survey questions, and as a consequence, likely increasing completion rates. PMID:27504915

On comparison of net survival curves.

PubMed

Pavlič, Klemen; Perme, Maja Pohar

2017-05-02

Relative survival analysis is a subfield of survival analysis where competing risks data are observed, but the causes of death are unknown. A first step in the analysis of such data is usually the estimation of a net survival curve, possibly followed by regression modelling. Recently, a log-rank type test for comparison of net survival curves has been introduced and the goal of this paper is to explore its properties and put this methodological advance into the context of the field. We build on the association between the log-rank test and the univariate or stratified Cox model and show the analogy in the relative survival setting. We study the properties of the methods using both the theoretical arguments as well as simulations. We provide an R function to enable practical usage of the log-rank type test. Both the log-rank type test and its model alternatives perform satisfactory under the null, even if the correlation between their p-values is rather low, implying that both approaches cannot be used simultaneously. The stratified version has a higher power in case of non-homogeneous hazards, but also carries a different interpretation. The log-rank type test and its stratified version can be interpreted in the same way as the results of an analogous semi-parametric additive regression model despite the fact that no direct theoretical link can be established between the test statistics.

Skin Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Skin cancer prevention approaches include avoiding risk factors like ultraviolet radiation that comes from the sun, sun lamps, and tanning beds. Learn more about the risks and possible protective factors for skin cancer in this expert-reviewed summary.

Endometrial Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Endometrial cancer prevention strategies include avoiding risk factors when possible and increasing protective factors that may help prevent cancer. Learn more about known risk and protective factors and approaches to prevent endometrial cancer in this expert-reviewed summary.

Colorectal Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention strategies include avoiding known risk factors, adopting a healthy lifestyle, polyp removal, and aspirin. Get detailed information about risk factors for CRC and potential interventions for prevention in this summary for clinicians.

Reliability and Validity of the Math Essential Skill Screener Elementary Version (MESS-E).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Bagley, Donna L.; Hopper, James A.; Lee, Ramona M.; Panagopulos, Kathleen A.; Preller, Denise B.

1998-01-01

The Math Essential Skill Screener Elementary Version (MESS-E) is a screener devised to identify primary grade students at risk for math difficulties. Item analysis, interitem consistency, test-retest reliability, decision efficiency, and construct validity of the MESS-E were studied using four independent samples of boys and girls grades 1-3. The…

Outcomes of external cephalic version and breech presentation at term, an audit of deliveries at a Sydney tertiary obstetric hospital, 1997-2004.

PubMed

Nassar, Natasha; Roberts, Christine L; Cameron, Carolyn A; Peat, Brian

2006-01-01

Probabilistic information on outcomes of breech presentation is important for clinical decision-making. We aim to quantify adverse maternal and fetal outcomes of breech presentation at term. We conducted an audit of 1,070 women with a term, singleton breech presentation who were classified as eligible or ineligible for external cephalic version or diagnosed in labor at a tertiary obstetric hospital in Australia, 1997-2004. Maternal, delivery and perinatal outcomes were assessed and frequency of events quantified. Five hundred and sixty (52%) women were eligible and 170 (16%) were ineligible for external cephalic version, 211 (20%) women were diagnosed in labor and 134 (12%) were unclassifiable. Seventy-one percent of eligible women had an external cephalic version, with a 39% success rate. Adverse outcomes of breech presentation at term were rare: immediate delivery for prelabor rupture of membranes (1.3%), nuchal cord (9.3%), cord prolapse (0.4%), and fetal death (0.3%); and did not differ by clinical classification. Women who had an external cephalic version had a reduced risk of onset-of-labor within 24 h (RR 0.25; 95%CI 0.08, 0.82) compared with women eligible for but who did not have an external cephalic version. Women diagnosed with breech in labor had the highest rates of emergency cesarean section (64%), cord prolapse (1.4%) and poorest infant outcomes. Adverse maternal and fetal outcomes of breech presentation at term are rare and there was no increased risk of complications after external cephalic version. Findings provide important data to quantify the frequency of adverse outcomes that will help facilitate informed decision-making and ensure optimal management of breech presentation.

Indication-Based Ordering: A New Paradigm for Glycemic Control in Hospitalized Inpatients

PubMed Central

Lee, Joshua; Clay, Brian; Zelazny, Ziband; Maynard, Gregory

2008-01-01

Background Inpatient glycemic control is a constant challenge. Institutional insulin management protocols and structured order sets are commonly advocated but poorly studied. Effective and validated methods to integrate algorithmic protocol guidance into the insulin ordering process are needed. Methods We introduced a basic structured set of computerized insulin orders (Version 1), and later introduced a paper insulin management protocol, to assist users with the order set. Metrics were devised to assess the impact of the protocol on insulin use, glycemic control, and hypoglycemia using pharmacy data and point of care glucose tests. When incremental improvement was seen (as described in the results), Version 2 of the insulin orders was created to further streamline the process. Results The percentage of regimens containing basal insulin improved with Version 1. The percentage of patient days with hypoglycemia improved from 3.68% at baseline to 2.59% with Version 1 plus the paper insulin management protocol, representing a relative risk for hypoglycemic day of 0.70 [confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 0.80]. The relative risk of an uncontrolled (mean glucose over 180 mg/dl) patient stay was reduced to 0.84 (CI 0.77, 0.91) with Version 1 and was reduced further to 0.73 (CI 0.66, 0.81) with the paper protocol. Version 2 used clinician-entered patient parameters to guide protocol-based insulin ordering and simultaneously improved the flexibility and ease of ordering over Version 1. Conclusion Patient parameter and protocol-based clinical decision support, added to computerized provider order entry, has a track record of improving glycemic control indices. This justifies the incorporation of these algorithms into online order management. PMID:19885198

A framework for expanding aqueous chemistry in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the development and implementation of an extendable aqueous-phase chemistry option (AQCHEM − KMT(I)) for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, version 5.1. Here, the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP), version 2.2.3, is used to generate a Rosen...

Examining intuitive cancer risk perceptions in Haitian-Creole and Spanish-speaking populations

PubMed Central

Hay, Jennifer; Brennessel, Debra; Kemeny, M. Margaret; Lubetkin, Erica

2017-01-01

Background There is a developing emphasis on intuition and affect in the illness risk perception process, yet there have been no available strategies to measure these constructs in non-English speakers. This study examined the comprehensibility and acceptability of translations of cancer risk beliefs in Haitian-Creole and Spanish. Methods An established, iterative, team-based translation process was employed. Cognitive interviews (n=20 in Haitian-Creole speakers; n=23 in Spanish speakers) were conducted in an inner city primary care clinic by trained interviewers who were native speakers of each language. Use of an established coding scheme for problematic terms and ambiguous concepts resulted in rewording and dropping items. Results Most items (90% in the Haitian-Creole version; 87% in the Spanish version) were highly comprehensible. Discussion This work will allow for further research examining health outcomes associated with risk perceptions across diverse, non-English language subgroups, paving the way for targeted risk communication with these populations. PMID:25505052

The Yoruba version of the Beck Hopelessness Scale: psychometric characteristics and correlates of hopelessness in a sample of Nigerian psychiatric outpatients.

PubMed

Aloba, Olutayo; Akinsulore, Adesanmi; Mapayi, Boladale; Oloniniyi, Ibiduniyi; Mosaku, Kolawole; Alimi, Taiwo; Esan, Olufemi

2015-01-01

Previous studies from the developed western countries have repeatedly demonstrated that hopelessness positively correlates with an increased risk of suicide in the context of chronic mental disorders such as schizophrenia and affective disorders. Despite this persistently strong association, the construct of hopelessness in terms of its factorial structure and correlates has not been explored among Nigerian psychiatric outpatients. The aim of this present study is to examine the psychometric characteristics of the Yoruba language culturally adapted version of the Beck Hopelessness Scale in a cross-sectional sample of psychiatric outpatients in South-western Nigeria. The participants were 327 Nigerian adult outpatients receiving treatment for schizophrenia, bipolar and depressive disorders, consecutively recruited from the outpatient psychiatric clinics of a university teaching hospital in South-western Nigeria. The outpatients were recruited over a one year period. They completed the Yoruba translated version of the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS-Y), a sociodemographic and illness-related questionnaire, the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Their level of functioning was assessed with the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale (GAF), psychopathology was evaluated with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the level of disability measured with the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS-II). Suicidality and confirmation of the diagnoses of schizophrenia, bipolar and depressive disorders were evaluated with the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). The construct of hopelessness in terms of factorial structure, reliability, validity and correlates was explored. Exploratory Factor Analysis using Principal Component Analysis with Varimax rotation was used to examine the factorial structure of the BHS-Y. Internal consistency was examined with Cronbach's alpha, and the construct validity of the scale was assessed using correlational analyses with the MINI suicidality module, BDI-II, GAF and WHODAS-II domain scores. We also tested the hypothesis that a shortened version of the BHS-Y will possess psychometric properties similar to the 20 item version. Exploratory Factor Analysis using Principal Component Analysis with Varimax rotation showed that the construct of hopelessness among our outpatients was best explained by a 3 factor model. Reliability of the translated version of the scale was adequate as indicated by a Cronbach's alpha of 0.92. Construct validity was also satisfactory as reflected by the strong correlations with MINI suicidality, Beck Depression Inventory-II and Global Assessment of Functioning scores. The shortened 4 item single factor BHS-Y composed of items 8, 9, 13 and 15 demonstrated psychometric properties similar to those of the full item version. The Beck Hopelessness Scale (Yoruba Version) demonstrated satisfactory reliability and validity and therefore may be useful in measuring the construct of hopelessness and in clinical suicide risk assessments among Nigerian psychiatric outpatients. There is the need for more studies to further explore the psychometric features and correlates of this scale among other Nigerian ethnic groups in addition to other medical patients' populations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive complexity of the medical record is a risk factor for major adverse events.

PubMed

Roberson, David; Connell, Michael; Dillis, Shay; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Gore, Rebecca; Heagerty, Elaina; Jenkins, Kathy; Ma, Lin; Maurer, Amy; Stephenson, Jessica; Schwartz, Margot

2014-01-01

Patients in tertiary care hospitals are more complex than in the past, but the implications of this are poorly understood as "patient complexity" has been difficult to quantify. We developed a tool, the Complexity Ruler, to quantify the amount of data (as bits) in the patient’s medical record. We designated the amount of data in the medical record as the cognitive complexity of the medical record (CCMR). We hypothesized that CCMR is a useful surrogate for true patient complexity and that higher CCMR correlates with risk of major adverse events. The Complexity Ruler was validated by comparing the measured CCMR with physician rankings of patient complexity on specific inpatient services. It was tested in a case-control model of all patients with major adverse events at a tertiary care pediatric hospital from 2005 to 2006. The main outcome measure was an externally reported major adverse event. We measured CCMR for 24 hours before the event, and we estimated lifetime CCMR. Above empirically derived cutoffs, 24-hour and lifetime CCMR were risk factors for major adverse events (odds ratios, 5.3 and 6.5, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, CCMR alone was essentially as predictive of risk as a model that started with 30-plus clinical factors. CCMR correlates with physician assessment of complexity and risk of adverse events. We hypothesize that increased CCMR increases the risk of physician cognitive overload. An automated version of the Complexity Ruler could allow identification of at-risk patients in real time.

Versioning of printed products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuijn, Chris

2005-01-01

During the definition of a printed product in an MIS system, a lot of attention is paid to the production process. The MIS systems typically gather all process-related parameters at such a level of detail that they can determine what the exact cost will be to make a specific product. This information can then be used to make a quote for the customer. Considerably less attention is paid to the content of the products since this does not have an immediate impact on the production costs (assuming that the number of inks or plates is known in advance). The content management is typically carried out either by the prepress systems themselves or by dedicated workflow servers uniting all people that contribute to the manufacturing of a printed product. Special care must be taken when considering versioned products. With versioned products we here mean distinct products that have a number of pages or page layers in common. Typical examples are comic books that have to be printed in different languages. In this case, the color plates can be shared over the different versions and the black plate will be different. Other examples are nation-wide magazines or newspapers that have an area with regional pages or advertising leaflets in different languages or currencies. When considering versioned products, the content will become an important cost factor. First of all, the content management (and associated proofing and approval cycles) becomes much more complex and, therefore, the risk that mistakes will be made increases considerably. Secondly, the real production costs are very much content-dependent because the content will determine whether plates can be shared across different versions or not and how many press runs will be needed. In this paper, we will present a way to manage different versions of a printed product. First, we will introduce a data model for version management. Next, we will show how the content of the different versions can be supplied by the customer/content provider and point out how soft proofing can be used to eliminate errors as much as possible. In the second part of the paper, we will show how the supplied information can be used to determine an optimal process plan that shows the number of plates to be generated and the press plans indicating plate changes and press runs.

Versioning of printed products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuijn, Chris

2004-12-01

During the definition of a printed product in an MIS system, a lot of attention is paid to the production process. The MIS systems typically gather all process-related parameters at such a level of detail that they can determine what the exact cost will be to make a specific product. This information can then be used to make a quote for the customer. Considerably less attention is paid to the content of the products since this does not have an immediate impact on the production costs (assuming that the number of inks or plates is known in advance). The content management is typically carried out either by the prepress systems themselves or by dedicated workflow servers uniting all people that contribute to the manufacturing of a printed product. Special care must be taken when considering versioned products. With versioned products we here mean distinct products that have a number of pages or page layers in common. Typical examples are comic books that have to be printed in different languages. In this case, the color plates can be shared over the different versions and the black plate will be different. Other examples are nation-wide magazines or newspapers that have an area with regional pages or advertising leaflets in different languages or currencies. When considering versioned products, the content will become an important cost factor. First of all, the content management (and associated proofing and approval cycles) becomes much more complex and, therefore, the risk that mistakes will be made increases considerably. Secondly, the real production costs are very much content-dependent because the content will determine whether plates can be shared across different versions or not and how many press runs will be needed. In this paper, we will present a way to manage different versions of a printed product. First, we will introduce a data model for version management. Next, we will show how the content of the different versions can be supplied by the customer/content provider and point out how soft proofing can be used to eliminate errors as much as possible. In the second part of the paper, we will show how the supplied information can be used to determine an optimal process plan that shows the number of plates to be generated and the press plans indicating plate changes and press runs.

Version 4.0 of code Java for 3D simulation of the CCA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linyu; Liao, Jianwei; Zuo, Junsen; Zhang, Kebo; Li, Chao; Xiong, Hailing

2018-07-01

This paper presents a new version Java code for the three-dimensional simulation of Cluster-Cluster Aggregation (CCA) model to replace the previous version. Many redundant traverses of clusters-list in the program were totally avoided, so that the consumed simulation time is significantly reduced. In order to show the aggregation process in a more intuitive way, we have labeled different clusters with varied colors. Besides, a new function is added for outputting the particle's coordinates of aggregates in file to benefit coupling our model with other models.

Self-consistency in the phonon space of the particle-phonon coupling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tselyaev, V.; Lyutorovich, N.; Speth, J.; Reinhard, P.-G.

2018-04-01

In the paper the nonlinear generalization of the time blocking approximation (TBA) is presented. The TBA is one of the versions of the extended random-phase approximation (RPA) developed within the Green-function method and the particle-phonon coupling model. In the generalized version of the TBA the self-consistency principle is extended onto the phonon space of the model. The numerical examples show that this nonlinear version of the TBA leads to the convergence of results with respect to enlarging the phonon space of the model.

Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

2014-09-01

Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

Stress mediates the relationship between past drug addiction and current risky sexual behavior among low income women

PubMed Central

Wu, Z. Helen; Tennen, Howard; Hosain, Monawar; Coman, Emil; Cullum, Jerry; Berenson, Abbey B.

2014-01-01

This study examined the role of stress as a mediator of the relationship between prior drug addiction and current high risk sexual behavior. Eight hundred twenty women aged 18 to 30 years, who received care at community-based family planning clinics were interviewed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and the Sexual Risk Behavior Assessment Schedule. They also completed the brief version of the Self-Control Scale as a measure of problem-solving strategies, and measures of recent stressful events, daily hassles, and ongoing chronic stress. Regardless of addiction history, stress exposure during the previous 12 months was associated with risky sexual behavior during the previous 12 months. Structural equation modeling revealed that 12-month stress levels mediated the relationship between past drug addiction and 12-month high risk sexual behaviors, as well as the negative relationship between problem-solving strategies and high risk sexual behaviors. Problem-solving strategies did not moderate the relationship between drug addiction and high risk sexual behaviors. These findings suggest that stress management training may help reduce risky behavior among young, low-income women PMID:24985341

User's Guide for RESRAD-OFFSITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gnanapragasam, E.; Yu, C.

2015-04-01

The RESRAD-OFFSITE code can be used to model the radiological dose or risk to an offsite receptor. This User’s Guide for RESRAD-OFFSITE Version 3.1 is an update of the User’s Guide for RESRAD-OFFSITE Version 2 contained in the Appendix A of the User’s Manual for RESRAD-OFFSITE Version 2 (ANL/EVS/TM/07-1, DOE/HS-0005, NUREG/CR-6937). This user’s guide presents the basic information necessary to use Version 3.1 of the code. It also points to the help file and other documents that provide more detailed information about the inputs, the input forms and features/tools in the code; two of the features (overriding the source termmore » and computing area factors) are discussed in the appendices to this guide. Section 2 describes how to download and install the code and then verify the installation of the code. Section 3 shows ways to navigate through the input screens to simulate various exposure scenarios and to view the results in graphics and text reports. Section 4 has screen shots of each input form in the code and provides basic information about each parameter to increase the user’s understanding of the code. Section 5 outlines the contents of all the text reports and the graphical output. It also describes the commands in the two output viewers. Section 6 deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis tools available in the code. Section 7 details the various ways of obtaining help in the code.« less

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Licata, Angelo

2015-01-01

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Development and pilot evaluation of novel genetic educational materials designed for an underserved patient population.

PubMed

Lubitz, Rebecca Jean; Komaromy, Miriam; Crawford, Beth; Beattie, Mary; Lee, Robin; Luce, Judith; Ziegler, John

2007-01-01

Genetic counseling for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations involves teaching about hereditary cancer, genetics and risk, subjects that are difficult to grasp and are routinely misunderstood. Supported by a grant from the Avon Foundation, the UCSF Cancer Risk Program started the first genetic testing and counseling service for a population of traditionally underserved women of varied ethnic and social backgrounds at the San Francisco General Hospital (SFGH). Informed by educational theory and clinical experience, we devised and piloted two simplified explanations of heredity and genetic risk, with the aim of uncovering how to best communicate genetics and risk to this underserved population. A "conventional" version comprised pictures of genes, pedigrees, and quantitative representations of risk. A "colloquial" pictorial version used an analogy of the "information book" of genes, family stories and vignettes, and visual representations of risk, without using scientific words such as genes or chromosomes. A verbal narrative accompanied each picture. We presented these modules to four focus groups of five to eight women recruited from the SFGH Family Practice Clinic. Overall, women preferred a picture-based approach and commented that additional text would have been distracting. The majority of women preferred the colloquial version because it was easier to understand and better conveyed a sense of comfort and hope. We conclude that simplicity, analogies, and familiarity support comprehension while vignettes, family stories, and photos of real people provide comfort and hope. These elements may promote understanding of complex scientific topics in healthcare, particularly when communicating with patients who come from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roop, Joseph M.; Scott, Michael J.; Schultz, Robert W.

2005-07-19

This version of the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model represents the ''next generation'' of the previously developed Visual Basic model (ImBUILD 2.0) that was developed in 2003 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of energy-efficient technology in buildings. More specifically, a special-purpose version of the 1997 benchmark national Input-Output (I-O) model was designed specifically to estimate the national employment and income effects of the deployment of Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) -developed energy-saving technologies. In comparison with the previous versions of the model, this version allows for more complete and automated analysis of the essential featuresmore » of energy efficiency investments in buildings, industry, transportation, and the electric power sectors. This version also incorporates improvements in the treatment of operations and maintenance costs, and improves the treatment of financing of investment options. ImSET is also easier to use than extant macroeconomic simulation models and incorporates information developed by each of the EERE offices as part of the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act.« less

USERS MANUAL: LANDFILL GAS EMISSIONS MODEL - VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The document is a user's guide for a computer model, Version 2.0 of the Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM), for estimating air pollution emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. The model can be used to estimate emission rates for methane, carbon dioxide, nonmet...

Modeling sound due to over-snow vehicles in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-10-01

A modified version of the FAAs Integrated Noise Model (INM) Version 6.2 was used to : model the sound of over-snow vehicles (OSVs) (snowmobiles and snowcoaches) in : Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks for ten modeling scenarios provided by...

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Version 2.0: Program user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman

1993-01-01

This Program User's Guide discusses the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design features and capabilities modeled in the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS): Version 2.0 program (referred to as NESS throughout the remainder of this document), as well as its operation. NESS was upgraded to include many new modeling capabilities not available in the original version delivered to NASA LeRC in Dec. 1991, NESS's new features include the following: (1) an improved input format; (2) an advanced solid-core NERVA-type reactor system model (ENABLER 2); (3) a bleed-cycle engine system option; (4) an axial-turbopump design option; (5) an automated pump-out turbopump assembly sizing option; (6) an off-design gas generator engine cycle design option; (7) updated hydrogen properties; (8) an improved output format; and (9) personal computer operation capability. Sample design cases are presented in the user's guide that demonstrate many of the new features associated with this upgraded version of NESS, as well as design modeling features associated with the original version of NESS.

Validation of the cardiac health behavior scale for Korean adults with cardiovascular risks or diseases.

PubMed

Song, Rhayun; Oh, Hyunkyoung; Ahn, Sukhee; Moorhead, Sue

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to validate the Cardiac Health Behavior Scale for Korean adults (CHB-K) to determine its validity and reliability. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the most important chronic diseases due to their high prevalence and mortality rates. Patients with cardiovascular risks or diseases need to perform appropriate cardiac health behaviors that help to prevent the progression of the disease and improve their health status. This secondary analysis obtained data from two clinical trials of cardiac rehabilitation. Data from 298 patients with cardiovascular risks or diseases were analyzed for validation. Data analyses included correlation coefficients, t-tests, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses using SPSS (version WIN 22.0) and AMOS (version 20.0). The Self-Efficacy Scale was used to assess convergent validity, while reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficients. Five main factors were verified: health responsibility, physical activity, diet habit (eating habit and food choice), stress management, and smoking cessation. A set of 21 items from the 25-item scale was verified after performing item analysis, factor analyses, and critical evaluation of the statistical results. The 21-item CHB-K (CHB-K21) exhibited acceptable validity, and the model of the CHB-K21 provided a good fit to the data. Most of the factors were found to be moderately correlated with SES scores (r=0.45-0.52, p<0.001). The CHB-K21 also demonstrated acceptable reliability (Cronbach's alpha=0.83). The CHB-K21 demonstrates strong validity and reliability. It can be used to assess cardiac health behaviors in Korean adults with cardiovascular risks or diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicidal Ideation and Interpersonal Needs: Factor Structure of a Short Version of the Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire in an At-Risk Military Sample.

PubMed

Allan, Nicholas P; Gros, Daniel F; Hom, Melanie A; Joiner, Thomas E; Stecker, Tracy

2016-01-01

The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide posits that perceived burdensomeness (PB; i.e., the belief that others would be better off if one were dead) and thwarted belongingness (TB; i.e., the belief that one lacks meaningful social connections) are both necessary risk factors for the development of suicidal ideation. To test these relations, measures are needed that are well validated, especially in samples of at-risk adults. The current study was designed to examine the factor structure of an eight-item version of the Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire (INQ) in a sample of 405 U.S. past and current military personnel (M age  = 31.57 years, SD = 7.28; 90.4% male) who endorsed either current suicidal ideation and/or a past suicide attempt. Analyses were conducted using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). A bifactor model comprising a general factor, labeled interpersonal needs, and two specific factors, labeled PB and TB, fit the data best. The general factor captured a high proportion of overall variance (81.9%). In contrast, the TB factor captured only a modest amount of variance in items meant to capture this factor (59.1%) and the PB factor captured very little variance in items meant to capture this factor (13.5%). Further, only the interpersonal needs factor was associated with lifetime and past-week suicidal ideation as well as suicidal ideation frequency and duration. The current findings indicate that, for the INQ-8 in high-risk military personnel, a general interpersonal needs factor accounted for the relations PB and TB share with suicidal ideation.

Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, & Primary Peritoneal Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer prevention includes reducing known risk factors and increasing protective factors. Some risk factors can be avoided, others cannot. Learn more about preventing these cancers in this expert-reviewed summary.

Thyroid Cancer Screening (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Thyroid cancer screening has not been shown to decrease the chance of dying from the disease. Not all screening tests are helpful, and most have risks. Learn more about thyroid cancer risks and screening in this expert-reviewed summary.

Skin Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Skin cancer prevention strategies include avoiding risk factors such as ultraviolet radiation, and increasing protective factors. Get detailed information about factors that influence the risk of skin cancer and interventions aimed at preventing it in this summary for clinicians.

Prostate Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Prostate cancer prevention strategies include avoiding risk factors, increasing protective factors, and considering chemoprevention when appropriate. Get detailed information about factors that influence the risk of prostate cancer and research aimed at preventing it in this clinician summary.

Bladder and Other Urothelial Cancers Screening (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Bladder and other urothelial cancers screening is not done routinely in the general population. Not all screening tests are helpful and most have risks. Learn more about bladder cancer risks and screening in this expert-reviewed summary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, J.E.; Roussin, R.W.; Gilpin, H.

A version of the CRAC2 computer code applicable for use in analyses of consequences and risks of reactor accidents in case work for environmental statements has been implemented for use on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Data General MV/8000 computer system. Input preparation is facilitated through the use of an interactive computer program which operates on an IBM personal computer. The resulting CRAC2 input deck is transmitted to the MV/8000 by using an error-free file transfer mechanism. To facilitate the use of CRAC2 at NRC, relevant background material on input requirements and model descriptions has been extracted from four reports -more » ''Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences,'' Version 2, NUREG/CR-2326 (SAND81-1994) and ''CRAC2 Model Descriptions,'' NUREG/CR-2552 (SAND82-0342), ''CRAC Calculations for Accident Sections of Environmental Statements, '' NUREG/CR-2901 (SAND82-1693), and ''Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code,'' NUREG/CR-4038 (ORNL-6114). When this background information is combined with instructions on the input processor, this report provides a self-contained guide for preparing CRAC2 input data with a specific orientation toward applications on the MV/8000. 8 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used tomore » determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

Risk factors for sexual aggression in young men: an expansion of the confluence model.

PubMed

Abbey, Antonia; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J; LeBreton, James M

2011-01-01

There are many explanations for high rates of sexual aggression, with no one theory dominating the field. This study extends past research by evaluating an expanded version of the confluence model with a community sample. One-hour audio computer-assisted self-interviews were completed by 470 young single men. Using structural equation analyses, delinquency, hostile masculinity, impersonal sex, and misperception of women's sexual cues were positively and directly associated with the number of sexually aggressive acts committed. There were also indirect effects of childhood victimization, personality traits associated with subclinical levels of psychopathy, and alcohol consumption. These findings demonstrate the usefulness of the confluence model, as well as the importance of broadening this theory to include additional constructs. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Best, Lauren M.; Myers, Jerry G.; Goodenow, Debra A.; McRae, Michael P.; Jackson, Travis C.

2013-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

A SELF-CONSISTENT DEUTSCHIAN ESP MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents a new version of the EPA I Southern Research Institute electrostatic precipitator (ESP) model. The primary difference between this and the standard (Revision 3) versions is in the treatment of the particulate space charge. Both models apply the Deutsch equatio...

SARAH 4: A tool for (not only SUSY) model builders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staub, Florian

2014-06-01

We present the new version of the Mathematica package SARAH which provides the same features for a non-supersymmetric model as previous versions for supersymmetric models. This includes an easy and straightforward definition of the model, the calculation of all vertices, mass matrices, tadpole equations, and self-energies. Also the two-loop renormalization group equations for a general gauge theory are now included and have been validated with the independent Python code PyR@TE. Model files for FeynArts, CalcHep/CompHep, WHIZARD and in the UFO format can be written, and source code for SPheno for the calculation of the mass spectrum, a set of precision observables, and the decay widths and branching ratios of all states can be generated. Furthermore, the new version includes routines to output model files for Vevacious for both, supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric, models. Global symmetries are also supported with this version and by linking Susyno the handling of Lie groups has been improved and extended.

Interventions to help external cephalic version for breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2004-01-01

Breech presentation places a fetus at increased risk. The outcome for the baby is improved by planned caesarean section compared with planned vaginal delivery. External cephalic version attempts to reduce the chances of breech presentation at birth, but is not always successful. Tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus as well as other methods have been used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. To assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural or spinal analgesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (September 2003) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library, Issue 3, 2003) were searched. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective or no tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural or spinal analgesia versus no regional analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. The reviewer assessed eligibility and trial quality. In six trials, routine tocolysis with beta-stimulants was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk (RR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.87). The reduction in non-cephalic presentations at birth was not statistically significant. Caesarean sections were reduced (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.99). In four small trials, sublingual nitroglycerine used as a tocolytic was associated with significant side-effects, and was not found to be effective. Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.60). With epidural or spinal analgesia, external cephalic version failure, non-cephalic births and caesarean sections were reduced in two trials but not the other. The overall differences were not statistically significant. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were located. Routine tocolysis appears to reduce the failure rate of external cephalic version at term. There is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions, nor of epidural or spinal analgesia. Large volume intravenous preloading may have contributed to the effectiveness demonstrated in two of the latter trials.

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was ...

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

Unavailability of thymidine kinase does not preclude the use of German comprehensive prognostic index: results of an external validation analysis in early chronic lymphocytic leukemia and comparison with MD Anderson Cancer Center model.

PubMed

Molica, Stefano; Giannarelli, Diana; Mirabelli, Rosanna; Levato, Luciano; Russo, Antonio; Linardi, Maria; Gentile, Massimo; Morabito, Fortunato

2016-01-01

A comprehensive prognostic index that includes clinical (i.e., age, sex, ECOG performance status), serum (i.e., ß2-microglobulin, thymidine kinase [TK]), and molecular (i.e., IGVH mutational status, del 17p, del 11q) markers developed by the German CLL Study Group (GCLLSG) was externally validated in a prospective, community-based cohort consisting of 338 patients with early chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) using as endpoint the time to first treatment (TTFT). Because serum TK was not available, a slightly modified version of the model based on seven instead of eight prognostic variables was used. By German index, 62.9% of patients were scored as having low-risk CLL (score 0-2), whereas 37.1% had intermediate-risk CLL (score 3-5). This stratification translated into a significant difference in the TTFT [HR = 4.21; 95% C.I. (2.71-6.53); P < 0.0001]. Also the 2007 MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) score, barely based on traditional clinical parameters, showed comparable reliability [HR = 2.73; 95% C.I. (1.79-4.17); P < 0.0001]. A comparative performance assessment between the two models revealed that prediction of the TTFT was more accurate with German score. The c-statistic of the MDACC model was 0.65 (range, 0.53-0.78) a level below that of the German index [0.71 (range, 0.60-0.82)] and below the accepted 0.7 threshold necessary to have value at the individual patient level. Results of this external comparative validation analysis strongly support the German score as the benchmark for comparison of any novel prognostic scheme aimed at evaluating the TTFT in patients with early CLL even when a modified version which does not include TK is utilized. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le Moigne, Jacqueline; Dabney, Philip; de Weck, Olivier; Foreman, Veronica; Grogan, Paul; Holland, Matthew; Hughes, Steven; Nag, Sreeja

2016-01-01

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time.This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance.TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

The Math Essential Skills Screener--Upper Elementary Version (MESS-U): Studies of Reliability and Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Biddison, Amanda R.

2006-01-01

The Math Essential Skills Screener--Upper Elementary Version (MESS-U) is part of a series of screening tests designed to help identify students ages 9-11 who are at risk for mathematics failure. Internal consistency, test-retest reliability, item analysis, decision efficiency, convergent validity and factorial validity of the MESS-U were studied…

Author Correction: High frequency temperature variability reduces the risk of coral bleaching.

PubMed

Safaie, Aryan; Silbiger, Nyssa J; McClanahan, Timothy R; Pawlak, Geno; Barshis, Daniel J; Hench, James L; Rogers, Justin S; Williams, Gareth J; Davis, Kristen A

2018-06-05

The original version of the Article was missing an acknowledgement of a funding source. The authors acknowledge that A. Safaie and K.Davis were supported by National Science Foundation Award No. 1436254 and G. Pawlak was supported by Award No. 1436522. This omission has now been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Adaptation to the Spanish population of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) and psychometric properties.

PubMed

Fernández-Calderón, Fermín; Díaz-Batanero, Carmen; Rojas-Tejada, Antonio J; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Lozano-Rojas, Óscar M

2017-07-14

The identification of different personality risk profiles for substance misuse is useful in preventing substance-related problems. This study aims to test the psychometric properties of a new version of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) for Spanish college students. Cross-sectional study with 455 undergraduate students from four Spanish universities. A new version of the SURPS, adapted to the Spanish population, was administered with the Beck Hopelessness Scale, the UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Internal consistency reliability ranged between 0.652 and 0.806 for the four SURPS subscales, while reliability estimated by split-half coefficients varied from 0.686 to 0.829. The estimated test-retest reliability ranged between 0.733 and 0.868. The expected four-factor structure of the original scale was replicated. As evidence of convergent validity, we found that the SURPS subscales were significantly associated with other conceptually-relevant personality scales and significantly associated with alcohol use measures in theoretically-expected ways. This SURPS version may be a useful instrument for measuring personality traits related to vulnerability to substance use and misuse when targeting personality with preventive interventions.

Evaluation of snow modeling with Noah and Noah-MP land surface models in NCEP GFS/CFS system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J.; Ek, M. B.; Wei, H.; Meng, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface serves as lower boundary forcing in global forecast system (GFS) and climate forecast system (CFS), simulating interactions between land and the atmosphere. Understanding the underlying land model physics is a key to improving weather and seasonal prediction skills. With the upgrades in land model physics (e.g., release of newer versions of a land model), different land initializations, changes in parameterization schemes used in the land model (e.g., land physical parametrization options), and how the land impact is handled (e.g., physics ensemble approach), it always prompts the necessity that climate prediction experiments need to be re-conducted to examine its impact. The current NASA LIS (version 7) integrates NOAA operational land surface and hydrological models (NCEP's Noah, versions from 2.7.1 to 3.6 and the future Noah-MP), high-resolution satellite and observational data, and land DA tools. The newer versions of the Noah LSM used in operational models have a variety of enhancements compared to older versions, where the Noah-MP allows for different physics parameterization options and the choice could have large impact on physical processes underlying seasonal predictions. These impacts need to be reexamined before implemented into NCEP operational systems. A set of offline numerical experiments driven by the GFS forecast forcing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of snow modeling with daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

[Psychometric properties of the French version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model].

PubMed

Niedhammer, I; Siegrist, J; Landre, M F; Goldberg, M; Leclerc, A

2000-10-01

Two main models are currently used to evaluate psychosocial factors at work: the Job Strain model developed by Karasek and the Effort-Reward Imbalance model. A French version of the first model has been validated for the dimensions of psychological demands and decision latitude. As regards the second one evaluating three dimensions (extrinsic effort, reward, and intrinsic effort), there are several versions in different languages, but until recently there was no validated French version. The objective of this study was to explore the psychometric properties of the French version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model in terms of internal consistency, factorial validity, and discriminant validity. The present study was based on the GAZEL cohort and included the 10 174 subjects who were working at the French national electric and gas company (EDF-GDF) and answered the questionnaire in 1998. A French version of Effort-Reward Imbalance was included in this questionnaire. This version was obtained by a standard forward/backward translation procedure. Internal consistency was satisfactory for the three scales of extrinsic effort, reward, and intrinsic effort: Cronbach's Alpha coefficients higher than 0.7 were observed. A one-factor solution was retained for the factor analysis of the scale of extrinsic effort. A three-factor solution was retained for the factor analysis of reward, and these dimensions were interpreted as the factor analysis of intrinsic effort did not support the expected four-dimension structure. The analysis of discriminant validity displayed significant associations between measures of Effort-Reward Imbalance and the variables of sex, age, education level, and occupational grade. This study is the first one supporting satisfactory psychometric properties of the French version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model. However, the factorial validity of intrinsic effort could be questioned. Furthermore, as most previous studies were based on male samples working in specific occupations, the present one is also one of the first to show strong associations between measures of this model and social class variables in a population of men and women employed in various occupations.

A computationally tractable version of the collective model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, D. J.

2004-05-01

A computationally tractable version of the Bohr-Mottelson collective model is presented which makes it possible to diagonalize realistic collective models and obtain convergent results in relatively small appropriately chosen subspaces of the collective model Hilbert space. Special features of the proposed model are that it makes use of the beta wave functions given analytically by the softened-beta version of the Wilets-Jean model, proposed by Elliott et al., and a simple algorithm for computing SO(5)⊃SO(3) spherical harmonics. The latter has much in common with the methods of Chacon, Moshinsky, and Sharp but is conceptually and computationally simpler. Results are presented for collective models ranging from the spherical vibrator to the Wilets-Jean and axially symmetric rotor-vibrator models.

Determining when to conduct a violence risk assessment: Development and initial validation of the Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST).

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Barry; Foellmi, Melodie; Khadivi, Ali; Wijetunga, Charity; Howe, Jacqueline; Nijdam-Jones, Alicia; Grover, Shana; Rotter, Merrill

2017-08-01

Techniques to assess violence risk are increasingly common, but no systematic approach exists to help clinicians decide which psychiatric patients are most in need of a violence risk assessment. The Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST) was designed to fill this void, providing a structured, systematic approach to screening psychiatric patients and determining the need for further, more thorough violence risk assessment. The FRST was administered to a sample of 210 consecutive admissions to the civil psychiatric units of an urban medical center, 159 of whom were subsequently evaluated using the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, to determine violence risk. The FRST showed a high degree of sensitivity (93%) in identifying patients subsequently deemed to be at high risk for violence (based on the Case Prioritization risk rating). The FRST also identified all of the patients (100%) rated high in potential for severe violence (based on the Serious Physical Harm Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, summary risk rating). Sensitivity was more modest when individuals rated as moderate risk were included as the criterion (rather than only those identified as high risk). Specificity was also moderate, screening out approximately half of all participants as not needing further risk assessment. A systematic approach to risk screening is clearly needed to prioritize psychiatric admissions for thorough risk assessment, and the FRST appears to be a potentially valuable step in that process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

FHWA Traffic Noise Model user's guide (version 2.5 addendum)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-04-30

In March 1998, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Office of Natural and Human Environment, released the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (TNM), Version 1.0, a state-of-the-art computer model for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Since th...

Esophageal Cancer Screening (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Esophageal cancer screening is not currently considered to be a routine part of cancer screening. Not all screening tests are helpful, and many have risks. Learn more about esophageal cancer risk factors and tests to detect it in this expert-reviewed summary.

Neuroblastoma Treatment (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Neuroblastoma treatment depends on the assigned risk category (low, intermediate, high, stage 4S). Get detailed information about the genomic/biologic features, presentation, diagnosis/staging, risk groups, prognosis and treatment of newly diagnosed and recurrent neuroblastoma in this summary for clinicians.

Liver (Hepatocellular) Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Liver cancer risk factors include hepatitis B and C, cirrhosis, and aflatoxin (poison from certain foods). Learn about these and other risk factors for liver cancer and how to prevent liver cancer in this expert-reviewed and evidence-based summary.

Spatial Variability in ADHD-Related Behaviors Among Children Born to Mothers Residing Near the New Bedford Harbor Superfund Site

PubMed Central

Vieira, Verónica M.; Fabian, M. Patricia; Webster, Thomas F.; Levy, Jonathan I.; Korrick, Susan A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has an uncertain etiology, with potential contributions from different risk factors such as prenatal environmental exposure to organochlorines and metals, social risk factors, and genetics. The degree to which geographic variability in ADHD is independent of, or explained by, risk factors may provide etiological insight. We investigated determinants of geographic variation in ADHD-related behaviors among children living near the polychlorinated biphenyl–contaminated New Bedford Harbor (NBH) Superfund site in Massachusetts. Participants were 573 children recruited at birth (1993–1998) who were born to mothers residing near the NBH site. We assessed ADHD-related behaviors at age 8 years using Conners’ Teacher Rating Scale–Revised: Long Version. Adjusted generalized additive models were used to smooth the association of pregnancy residence with ADHD-related behaviors and assess whether prenatal organochlorine or metal exposures, sociodemographic factors, or other factors explained spatial patterns. Models that adjusted for child's age and sex displayed significantly increased ADHD-related behavior among children whose mothers resided west of the NBH site during pregnancy. These spatial patterns persisted after adjusting for prenatal exposure to organochlorines and metals but were no longer significant after controlling for sociodemographic factors. The findings underscore the value of spatial analysis in identifying high-risk subpopulations and evaluating candidate risk factors. PMID:28444119

AquaCrop-OS: A tool for resilient management of land and water resources in agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Timothy; Brozovic, Nicholas; Butler, Adrian P.; Neale, Christopher M. U.; Raes, Dirk; Steduto, Pasquale; Fereres, Elias; Hsiao, Theodore C.

2017-04-01

Water managers, researchers, and other decision makers worldwide are faced with the challenge of increasing food production under population growth, drought, and rising water scarcity. Crop simulation models are valuable tools in this effort, and, importantly, provide a means of quantifying rapidly crop yield response to water, climate, and field management practices. Here, we introduce a new open-source crop modelling tool called AquaCrop-OS (Foster et al., 2017), which extends the functionality of the globally used FAO AquaCrop model. Through case studies focused on groundwater-fed irrigation in the High Plains and Central Valley of California in the United States, we demonstrate how AquaCrop-OS can be used to understand the local biophysical, behavioural, and institutional drivers of water risks in agricultural production. Furthermore, we also illustrate how AquaCrop-OS can be combined effectively with hydrologic and economic models to support drought risk mitigation and decision-making around water resource management at a range of spatial and temporal scales, and highlight future plans for model development and training. T. Foster, et al. (2017) AquaCrop-OS: An open source version of FAO's crop water productivity model. Agricultural Water Management. 181: 18-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.11.015.

2014 Version 7.0 Technical Support Document (TSD)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The 2014 Version 7 document describes the processing of emission inventories into inputs for the Community Multiscale Air Quality model for use in the 2014 National Air Toxics Assessment initial modeling.

Recognition of Atypical Symptoms of Acute Myocardial Infarction: Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

PubMed

Li, Polly W C; Yu, Doris S F

Atypical symptom presentation in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is associated with longer delay in care seeking and poorer prognosis. Symptom recognition in these patients is a challenging task. Our purpose in this risk prediction model development study was to develop and validate a risk scoring system for estimating cumulative risk for atypical AMI presentation. A consecutive sample was recruited for the developmental (n = 300) and validation (n = 97) cohorts. Symptom experience was measured with the validated Chinese version of the Symptoms of Acute Coronary Syndromes Inventory. Potential predictors were identified from the literature. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify significant predictors. A risk scoring system was then constructed by assigning weights to each significant predictor according to their b coefficients. Five independent predictors for atypical symptom presentation were older age (≥75 years), female gender, diabetes mellitus, history of AMI, and absence of hyperlipidemia. The Hosmer and Lemeshow test (χ6 = 4.47, P = .62) indicated that this predictive model was adequate to predict the outcome. Acceptable discrimination was demonstrated, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.82) (P < .001). The predictive power of this risk scoring system was confirmed in the validation cohort. Atypical AMI presentation is common. A simple risk scoring system developed on the basis of the 5 identified predictors can raise awareness of atypical AMI presentation and promote symptom recognition by estimating the cumulative risk for an individual to present with atypical AMI symptoms.

Chromosome aberrations and cell death by ionizing radiation: Evolution of a biophysical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarini, Francesca; Carante, Mario P.

2016-11-01

The manuscript summarizes and discusses the various versions of a radiation damage biophysical model, implemented as a Monte Carlo simulation code, originally developed for chromosome aberrations and subsequently extended to cell death. This extended version has been called BIANCA (BIophysical ANalysis of Cell death and chromosome Aberrations). According to the basic assumptions, complex double-strand breaks (called ;Cluster Lesions;, or CLs) produce independent chromosome free-ends, mis-rejoining within a threshold distance d (or un-rejoining) leads to chromosome aberrations, and ;lethal aberrations; (i.e., dicentrics plus rings plus large deletions) lead to clonogenic cell death. The mean number of CLs per Gy and per cell is an adjustable parameter. While in BIANCA the threshold distance d was the second parameter, in a subsequent version, called BIANCA II, d has been fixed as the mean distance between two adjacent interphase chromosome territories, and a new parameter, f, has been introduced to represent the chromosome free-end un-rejoining probability. Simulated dose-response curves for chromosome aberrations and cell survival obtained by the various model versions were compared with literature experimental data. Such comparisons provided indications on some open questions, including the role of energy deposition clustering at the nm and the μm level, the probability for a chromosome free-end to remain un-rejoined, and the relationship between chromosome aberrations and cell death. Although both BIANCA and BIANCA II provided cell survival curves in general agreement with human and hamster fibroblast survival data, BIANCA II allowed for a better reproduction of dicentrics, rings and deletions considered separately. Furthermore, the approach adopted in BIANCA II for d is more consistent with estimates reported in the literature. After testing against aberration and survival data, BIANCA II was applied to investigate the depth-dependence of the radiation effectiveness for a proton SOBP used to treat eye melanoma in Catania, Italy. The survival of AG01522 cells at different depths was reproduced, and the survival of V79 cells was predicted. For both cell lines, the simulations also predicted yields of chromosome aberrations, some of which can be regarded as indicators of the risk to normal tissues.

Application of the GREAT-ER model for environmental risk assessment of nonylphenol and nonylphenol ethoxylates in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Lai; Cao, Yan; Hao, Xuewen; Zhang, Yongyong; Liu, Jianguo

2015-12-01

The environmental risk presented by "down-the-drain" chemicals to receiving rivers in large urban areas has received increasing attention in recent years. Geo-referenced Regional Environmental Assessment Tool for European Rivers (GREAT-ER) is a typical river catchment model that has been specifically developed for the risk assessment of these chemicals and applied in many European rivers. By utilizing the new version of the model, GREAT-ER 3.0, which is the first completely open source software for worldwide application, this study represents the first attempt to conduct an application of GREAT-ER in the Wenyu River of China. Aquatic exposure simulation and an environmental risk assessment of nonylphenol (NP) and its environmental precursor nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs) were conducted effectively by GREAT-ER model, since NP is one of typical endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and its environmental precursor NPEOs as a "down-the-drain" chemical are extensively used in China. In the result, the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of NP and NPEOs in the water of Wenyu River were 538 and 4320 ng/L, respectively, at the regional scale, and 1210 and 8990 ng/L, respectively, at the local scale. From the results profile of the RCR, the combination of high emissions from large STPs with insufficient dilution of the river caused the high RCR. The PECs of NP in the sediment were in the range of 216.8-8218.3 ng/g (dry weight), which was consistent with the available monitoring data. The study showed the worldwide applicability and reliability of GREAT-ER as a river catchment model for the risk assessment of these chemicals and also revealed the general environmental risks presented by NP and NPEOs in the Wenyu River catchment in Beijing due to the extensive use of these chemicals. The results suggest that specific control or treatment measures are probably warranted for these chemicals to reduce their discharge in major cities.

A comparison of mindfulness, nonjudgmental, and cognitive dissonance-based approaches to mirror exposure.

PubMed

Luethcke, Cynthia A; McDaniel, Leda; Becker, Carolyn Black

2011-06-01

This study compares different versions of mirror exposure (ME), a body image intervention with research support. ME protocols were adapted to maximize control and comparability, and scripted for delivery by research assistants. Female undergraduates (N=168) were randomly assigned to receive mindfulness-based (MB; n=58), nonjudgmental (NJ; n=55), or cognitive dissonance-based (CD, n=55) ME. Participants completed the Body Image Avoidance Questionnaire (BIAQ), Body Checking Questionnaire (BCQ), Satisfaction with Body Parts Scale (SBPS), Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), and Eating Disorders Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q) at pre-treatment, post-treatment, and 1-month follow-up. Mixed models ANOVAs revealed a significant main effect of time on all measures, and no significant time by condition interaction for any measures except the SBPS. Post-hoc analysis revealed that only CD ME significantly improved SBPS outcome. Results suggest that all versions of ME reduce eating disorder risk factors, but only CD ME improves body satisfaction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a short measure of effort-reward imbalance in the workplace: evidence from China.

PubMed

Li, Jian; Loerbroks, Adrian; Shang, Li; Wege, Natalia; Wahrendorf, Morten; Siegrist, Johannes

2012-01-01

Work stress is an emergent risk in occupational health in China, and its measurement is still a critical issue. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of a short version of the effort-reward imbalance (ERI) questionnaire in a sample of Chinese workers. A community-based survey was conducted in 1,916 subjects aged 30-65 years with paid employment (971 men and 945 women). Acceptable internal consistencies of the three scales, effort, reward and overcommitment, were obtained. Confirmatory factor analysis showed a good model fit of the data with the theoretical structure (goodness-of-fit index = 0.95). Evidence of criterion validity was demonstrated, as all three scales were independently associated with elevated odds ratios of both poor physical and mental health. Based on the findings of our study, this short version of the ERI questionnaire is considered to be a reliable and valid tool for measuring psychosocial work environment in Chinese working populations.

Brugga basin's TACD Model Adaptation to current GIS PCRaster 4.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Rozo, Nicolas Antonio; Corzo Perez, Gerald Augusto; Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo

2017-04-01

The process-oriented catchment model TACD (Tracer-Aided Catchment model - Distributed) was developed in the Brugga Basin (Dark Forest, Germany) with a modular structure in the Geographic Information System PCRaster Version 2, in order to dynamically model the natural processes of a complex Basin, such as rainfall, air temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration and flow routing among others. Further research and application on this model has been done, such as adapting other meso-scaled basins and adding erosion processes in the hydrological model. However, TACD model is computationally intensive. This has made it not efficient on large and well discretized river basins. Aswell, the current version is not compatible with latest PCRaster Version 4.1, which offers new capabilities on 64-bit hardware architecture, hydraulic calculation improvements, in maps creation, some error and bug fixes. The current work studied and adapted TACD model into the latest GIS PCRaster Version 4.1. This was done by editing the original scripts, replacing deprecated functionalities without losing correctness of the TACD model. The correctness of the adapted TACD model was verified by using the original study case of the Brugga Basin and comparing the adapted model results with the original model results by Stefan Roser in 2001. Small differences were found due to the fact that some hydraulic and hydrological routines were optimized since version 2 of GIS PCRaster. Therefore, the hydraulic and hydrological processes are well represented. With this new working model, further research and development on current topics like uncertainty analysis, GCM downscaling techniques and spatio-temporal modelling are encouraged.

Spanish validation of the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT-30) Scale.

PubMed

Lozano, Luis M; Megías, Alberto; Catena, Andrés; Perales, José C; Baltruschat, Sabina; Cándido, Antonio

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a Spanish version of the short Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT-30) scale, measuring risk-taking behavior, risk perception, and expected beneficial consequences (from taking risks) in five life domains: ethics, finance, health/security, recreational, and social decisions. The scale was back-translated, and administered online to 826 participants. Validity evidence was tested using correlations with construct-related instruments (UPPS-P and SSS-V), as well as using factor analysis. Internal consistency reliability was calculated with the ordinal Alpha coefficient, and gender differences were considered. Internal consistency was good, and factor analysis confirmed the five factors proposed by the authors. With respect to the external validity, high correlations with the positive urgency and the sensation seeking subscales of the UPPS-P, as well as with the thrill and adventure seeking and disinhibition subscales of the SSS-V were found. Finally, gender differences were found in all subscales and domains, with men tending to take more risks, perceive less risk and expect more beneficial consequences, except for the social domain where an inverse pattern was found. As these findings are in line with the original version, they indicate the scale was successfully adapted.

Risk of Suicide and Dysfunctional Patterns of Personality among Bereaved Substance Users.

PubMed

Masferrer, Laura; Caparrós, Beatriz

2017-03-20

Background : Research has shown that suicide is a phenomenon highly present among the drug dependent population. Different studies have demonstrated an upraised level of comorbidity between personality disorders (PD) and substance use disorders (SUD). This study aimed to describe which PDs are more frequent among those patients with a risk of suicide. Methods : The study was based on a consecutive non-probabilistic convenience sample of 196 bereaved patients attended to in a Public Addiction Center in Girona (Spain). Sociodemographic data, as well as suicide and drug related characteristics were recorded. The risk of suicide was assessed with the Spanish version of "Risk of suicide". Personality disorders were measured with the Spanish version of Millon Multiaxial Clinical Inventory. Results : The PDs more associated with the presence of risk of suicide were depressive, avoidant, schizotypal and borderline disorders. However, the histrionic, narcissistic and compulsive PDs are inversely associated with risk of suicide even though the narcissistic scale had no statistical correlation. Conclusions : The risk of suicide is a significant factor to take into account related to patients with SUD and especially with the presence of specific PDs. These findings underline the importance of diagnosing and treating rigorously patients with SUD.

Risk of Suicide and Dysfunctional Patterns of Personality among Bereaved Substance Users

PubMed Central

Masferrer, Laura; Caparrós, Beatriz

2017-01-01

Background: Research has shown that suicide is a phenomenon highly present among the drug dependent population. Different studies have demonstrated an upraised level of comorbidity between personality disorders (PD) and substance use disorders (SUD). This study aimed to describe which PDs are more frequent among those patients with a risk of suicide. Methods: The study was based on a consecutive non-probabilistic convenience sample of 196 bereaved patients attended to in a Public Addiction Center in Girona (Spain). Sociodemographic data, as well as suicide and drug related characteristics were recorded. The risk of suicide was assessed with the Spanish version of “Risk of suicide”. Personality disorders were measured with the Spanish version of Millon Multiaxial Clinical Inventory. Results: The PDs more associated with the presence of risk of suicide were depressive, avoidant, schizotypal and borderline disorders. However, the histrionic, narcissistic and compulsive PDs are inversely associated with risk of suicide even though the narcissistic scale had no statistical correlation. Conclusions: The risk of suicide is a significant factor to take into account related to patients with SUD and especially with the presence of specific PDs. These findings underline the importance of diagnosing and treating rigorously patients with SUD. PMID:28335530

GREET 1.5 : transportation fuel-cycle model. Vol. 1 : methodology, development, use, and results.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

This report documents the development and use of the most recent version (Version 1.5) of the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. The model, developed in a spreadsheet format, estimates the full fuel...

Simulating unstressed crop development and growth using the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since development of the EPIC model in 1989, many versions of the plant growth component have been incorporated into other erosion and crop management models and subsequently modified to meet model objectives (e.g., WEPS, WEPP, SWAT, ALMANAC, GPFARM). This has resulted in different versions of the ...

RELEASE NOTES FOR MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1 PATCH: SMOKE TOOL AND FILE CONVERTER

EPA Science Inventory

This software patch to the Models-3 system corrects minor errors in the Models-3 framework, provides substantial improvements in the ASCII to I/O API format conversion of the File Converter utility, and new functionalities for the SMOKE Tool. Version 4.1 of the Models-3 system...

LANL* V2.0: global modeling and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koller, J.; Zaharia, S.

2011-03-01

We describe in this paper the new version of LANL*. Just like the previous version, this new version V2.0 of LANL* is an artificial neural network (ANN) for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. We have implemented the following enhancements in the new version: (1) we have removed the limitation to geosynchronous orbit and the model can now be used for any type of orbit. (2) The new version is based on the improved magnetic field model by Tsyganenko and Sitnov (2005) (TS05) instead of the older model by Tsyganenko et al. (2003). We have validated the model and compared our results to L* calculations with the TS05 model based on ephemerides for CRRES, Polar, GPS, a LANL geosynchronous satellite, and a virtual RBSP type orbit. We find that the neural network performs very well for all these orbits with an error typically Δ L* < 0.2 which corresponds to an error of 3% at geosynchronous orbit. This new LANL-V2.0 artificial neural network is orders of magnitudes faster than traditional numerical field line integration techniques with the TS05 model. It has applications to real-time radiation belt forecasting, analysis of data sets involving decades of satellite of observations, and other problems in space weather.

The risk management professional and medication safety.

PubMed

Cohen, Hedy; Tuohy, Nancy; Carroll, Roberta

2009-01-01

ASHRM is committed to the future development of the healthcare risk management profession. A key contribution to this commitment is the creation of a student version of ASHRM's best-selling Risk Management Handbook for Healthcare Organizations. The Student Edition was released this spring. It is now being made available to universities and colleges to incorporate into their degree programs.

Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, & Primary Peritoneal Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

Ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer prevention involves understanding risk and protective factors, and the evidence behind them. Get detailed information about specific risk and protective factors and prevention strategies for these cancer types in this clinician summary.

Ragweed pollen production and dispersion modelling within a regional climate system, calibration and application over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Solmon, Fabien; Vautard, Robert; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Zsolt Torma, Csaba; Giorgi, Filippo

2016-05-01

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hay fever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen emission and transport module in the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 using the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5. In this online approach pollen emissions are calculated based on the modelling of plant distribution, pollen production, species-specific phenology, flowering probability, and flux response to meteorological conditions. A pollen tracer model is used to describe pollen advective transport, turbulent mixing, dry and wet deposition. The model is then applied and evaluated on a European domain for the period 2000-2010. To reduce the large uncertainties notably due to the lack of information on ragweed density distribution, a calibration based on airborne pollen observations is used. Accordingly a cross validation is conducted and shows reasonable error and sensitivity of the calibration. Resulting simulations show that the model captures the gross features of the pollen concentrations found in Europe, and reproduce reasonably both the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering season and associated pollen concentrations measured over Europe. The model can explain 68.6, 39.2, and 34.3 % of the observed variance in starting, central, and ending dates of the pollen season with associated root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 4.7, 3.9, and 7.0 days, respectively. The correlation between simulated and observed daily concentrations time series reaches 0.69. Statistical scores show that the model performs better over the central Europe source region where pollen loads are larger and the model is better constrained. From these simulations health risks associated to common ragweed pollen spread are evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels. The total risk area with concentration above 5 grains m-3 takes up 29.5 % of domain. The longest exposure time occurs on Pannonian Plain, where the number of days per year with the daily concentration above 20 grains m-3 exceeds 30.

The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.

2015-01-01

New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

A comparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide.

PubMed

Nunes, Kevin L; Firestone, Philip; Bradford, John M; Greenberg, David M; Broom, Ian

2002-07-01

The predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sex offenders, modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, was examined and compared in a sample of 258 adult male sex offenders. In addition, the independent contributions to the prediction of recidivism made by each instrument and by various phallometric indices were explored. Both instruments demonstrated moderate levels of predictive accuracy for sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism. They were not significantly different in terms of their predictive accuracy for sexual or violent recidivism, nor did they contribute independently to the prediction of sexual or violent recidivism. Of the phallometric indices examined, only the pedophile index added significantly to the prediction of sexual recidivism, but not violent recidivism, above the Static-99 alone.

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

Are cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management programmes cost effective? A systematic review of the evidence.

PubMed

Lee, John Tayu; Lawson, Kenny D; Wan, Yizhou; Majeed, Azeem; Morris, Stephen; Soljak, Michael; Millett, Christopher

2017-06-01

The World Health Organization recommends that countries implement population-wide cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management programmes. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate whether this recommendation is supported by cost-effectiveness evidence. Published economic evaluations were identified via electronic medical and social science databases (including Medline, Web of Science, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) from inception to March 2016. Study quality was evaluated using a modified version of the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. Fourteen economic evaluations were included: five studies based on randomised controlled trials, seven studies based on observational studies and two studies using hypothetical modelling synthesizing secondary data. Trial based studies measured CVD risk factor changes over 1 to 3years, with modelled projections of longer term events. Programmes were either not, or only, cost-effective under non-verified assumptions such as sustained risk factor changes. Most observational and hypothetical studies suggested programmes were likely to be cost-effective; however, study deigns are subject to bias and subsequent empirical evidence has contradicted key assumptions. No studies assessed impacts on inequalities. In conclusion, recommendations for population-wide risk assessment and management programmes lack a robust, real world, evidence basis. Given implementation is resource intensive there is a need for robust economic evaluation, ideally conducted alongside trials, to assess cost effectiveness. Further, the efficiency and equity impact of different delivery models should be investigated, and also the combination of targeted screening with whole population interventions recognising that there multiple approaches to prevention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY ( CMAQ ) MODEL - QUALITY ASSURANCE AND VERSION CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will be given to the EPA Exposure Modeling Workgroup on January 24, 2006. The quality assurance and version control procedures for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model are presented. A brief background of CMAQ is given, then issues related to qual...

MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATION FOR THE TEXAS INSTRUMENTS PROGRAMMABLE 59 CALCULATOR

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes a version of EPA's electrostatic precipitator (ESP) model suitable for use on a Texas Instruments Programmable 59 (TI-59) hand-held calculator. This version of the model allows the calculation of ESP collection efficiency, including corrections for non-ideal ...

Application of the FluEgg model to predict transport of Asian carp eggs in the Saint Joseph River (Great Lakes tributary)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Tatiana; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Jackson, P. Ryan; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2015-01-01

The Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) is a three-dimensional Lagrangian model that simulates the movement and development of Asian carp eggs until hatching based on the physical characteristics of the flow field and the physical and biological characteristics of the eggs. This tool provides information concerning egg development and spawning habitat suitability including: egg plume location, egg vertical and travel time distribution, and egg-hatching risk. A case study of the simulation of Asian carp eggs in the Lower Saint Joseph River, a tributary of Lake Michigan, is presented. The river hydrodynamic input for FluEgg was generated in two ways — using hydroacoustic data and using HEC-RAS model data. The HEC-RAS model hydrodynamic input data were used to simulate 52 scenarios covering a broad range of flows and water temperatures with the eggs at risk of hatching ranging from 0 to 93% depending on river conditions. FluEgg simulations depict the highest percentage of eggs at risk of hatching occurs at the lowest discharge and at peak water temperatures. Analysis of these scenarios illustrates how the interactive relation among river length, hydrodynamics, and water temperature influence egg transport and hatching risk. An improved version of FluEgg, which more realistically simulates dispersion and egg development, is presented. Also presented is a graphical user interface that facilitates the use of FluEgg and provides a set of post-processing analysis tools to support management decision-making regarding the prevention and control of Asian carp reproduction in rivers with or without Asian carp populations.

Three Dimensional Thermal Pollution Models. Volume 2; Rigid-Lid Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.

1978-01-01

Three versions of rigid lid programs are presented: one for near field simulation; the second for far field unstratified situations; and the third for stratified basins, far field simulation. The near field simulates thermal plume areas, and the far field version simulates larger receiving aquatic ecosystems. Since these versions have many common subroutines, a unified testing is provided, with main programs for the three possible conditions listed.

Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

PubMed

Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

2015-01-01

Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) <33 weeks, who were admitted to NICUs in Baden-Württemberg from 2003 to 2008, were identified from the German neonatal quality assurance program. CRIB, CRIB-II and PREM scores were calculated and modified. Omitting variables that directly reflected therapeutic decisions [the applied fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2)] or that may have been prone to early-treatment bias (base excess and temperature), non-NICU-therapy-influenced scores were obtained. Score performance was assessed by the area under their ROC curve (AUC). The CRIB showed the largest AUC (0.89), which dropped significantly (to 0.85) after omitting the FiO2. The PREM birth condition model, PREM(bcm) (AUC 0.86), and the PREM birth model, PREM(bm) (AUC 0.82), also demonstrated good discrimination. PREM(bm) was superior to other non-therapy-affected scores and to GA, particularly in infants with <750 g birth weight. Congruence of risk categorization was low, especially among higher-risk cases. The CRIB score had the largest AUC, resulting from its inclusion of FiO2. PREM(bm), as the most accurate score among those unaffected by early treatment, seems to be a good alternative for strict risk adjustment in NICU auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Organ Dose Assessment and Evaluation of Cancer Risk on Mars Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated on the surface of Mars using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. To account for the radiation transmission through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor. To describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance on the Mars surface at each elevation, the directional cosine distribution is implemented. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is then coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Finally, cancer risks for astronauts exploring Mars can be assessed by applying the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model with the resultant organ dose estimates. Variations of organ doses and cancer risk quantities on the surface of Mars, which are due to a 16-km elevation range between the Tharsis Montes and the Hellas impact basin, are visualized on the global topography of Mars measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. It is found that cancer incidence risks are about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for male and female astronauts and in breast cancer for female astronauts. The number of safe days, defined by the upper 95% percent confidence level to be below cancer limits, on Mars is analyzed for several Mars mission design scenarios.

Enhancements to the caliop aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms for level II version 4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, A.; Tackett, J.; Kim, M.-H.; Vaughan, M.; Kar, J.; Trepte, C.; Winker, D.

2018-04-01

Several enhancements have been implemented for the version 4 aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms of Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Version 4 eliminates the confusion between smoke and clean marine aerosols seen in version 3 by modifications to the elevated layer flag definitions used to identify smoke aerosols over the ocean. To differentiate between mixtures of dust and smoke, and dust and marine aerosols, a new aerosol type will be added in the version 4 data products. In the marine boundary layer, moderately depolarizing aerosols are no longer modeled as mixtures of dust and smoke (polluted dust) but rather as mixtures of dust and seasalt (dusty marine). Some lidar ratios have been updated in the version 4 algorithms. In particular, the dust lidar ratios have been adjusted to reflect the latest measurements and model studies.

Annual Report: Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) (30 September 2013)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, David C.; Syamlal, Madhava; Cottrell, Roger

2013-09-30

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that is developing and deploying state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models, with uncertainty quantification (UQ), optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset incorporates commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and is also developing new software tools asmore » necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. Ultimately, the CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. CCSI is led by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and leverages the Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories’ core strengths in modeling and simulation, bringing together the best capabilities at NETL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The CCSI’s industrial partners provide representation from the power generation industry, equipment manufacturers, technology providers and engineering and construction firms. The CCSI’s academic participants (Carnegie Mellon University, Princeton University, West Virginia University, Boston University and the University of Texas at Austin) bring unparalleled expertise in multiphase flow reactors, combustion, process synthesis and optimization, planning and scheduling, and process control techniques for energy processes. During Fiscal Year (FY) 13, CCSI announced the initial release of its first set of computational tools and models during the October 2012 meeting of its Industry Advisory Board. This initial release led to five companies licensing the CCSI Toolset under a Test and Evaluation Agreement this year. By the end of FY13, the CCSI Technical Team had completed development of an updated suite of computational tools and models. The list below summarizes the new and enhanced toolset components that were released following comprehensive testing during October 2013. 1. FOQUS. Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity. Package includes: FOQUS Graphic User Interface (GUI), simulation-based optimization engine, Turbine Client, and heat integration capabilities. There is also an updated simulation interface and new configuration GUI for connecting Aspen Plus or Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) simulations to FOQUS and the Turbine Science Gateway. 2. A new MFIX-based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to predict particle attrition. 3. A new dynamic reduced model (RM) builder, which generates computationally efficient RMs of the behavior of a dynamic system. 4. A completely re-written version of the algebraic surrogate model builder for optimization (ALAMO). The new version is several orders of magnitude faster than the initial release and eliminates the MATLAB dependency. 5. A new suite of high resolution filtered models for the hydrodynamics associated with horizontal cylindrical objects in a flow path. 6. The new Turbine Science Gateway (Cluster), which supports FOQUS for running multiple simulations for optimization or UQ using a local computer or cluster. 7. A new statistical tool (BSS-ANOVA-UQ) for calibration and validation of CFD models. 8. A new basic data submodel in Aspen Plus format for a representative high viscosity capture solvent, 2-MPZ system. 9. An updated RM tool for CFD (REVEAL) that can create a RM from MFIX. A new lightweight, stand-alone version will be available in late 2013. 10. An updated RM integration tool to convert the RM from REVEAL into a CAPE-OPEN or ACM model for use in a process simulator. 11. An updated suite of unified steady-state and dynamic process models for solid sorbent carbon capture included bubbling fluidized bed and moving bed reactors. 12. An updated and unified set of compressor models including steady-state design point model and dynamic model with surge detection. 13. A new framework for the synthesis and optimization of coal oxycombustion power plants using advanced optimization algorithms. This release focuses on modeling and optimization of a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU). 14. A new technical risk model in spreadsheet format. 15. An updated version of the sorbent kinetic/equilibrium model for parameter estimation for the 1st generation sorbent model. 16. An updated process synthesis superstructure model to determine optimal process configurations utilizing surrogate models from ALAMO for adsorption and regeneration in a solid sorbent process. 17. Validation models for NETL Carbon Capture Unit utilizing sorbent AX. Additional validation models will be available for sorbent 32D in 2014. 18. An updated hollow fiber membrane model and system example for carbon capture. 19. An updated reference power plant model in Thermoflex that includes additional steam extraction and reinjection points to enable heat integration module. 20. An updated financial risk model in spreadsheet format.« less

Geometric Modelling of Tree Roots with Different Levels of Detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero Iñiguez, J. I.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a geometric approach for modelling tree roots with different Levels of Detail, suitable for analysis of the tree anchoring, potentially occupied underground space, interaction with urban elements and damage produced and taken in the built-in environment. Three types of tree roots are considered to cover several species: tap root, heart shaped root and lateral roots. Shrubs and smaller plants are not considered, however, a similar approach can be considered if the information is available for individual species. The geometrical approach considers the difficulties of modelling the actual roots, which are dynamic and almost opaque to direct observation, proposing generalized versions. For each type of root, different geometric models are considered to capture the overall shape of the root, a simplified block model, and a planar or surface projected version. Lower detail versions are considered as compatibility version for 2D systems while higher detail models are suitable for 3D analysis and visualization. The proposed levels of detail are matched with CityGML Levels of Detail, enabling both analysis and aesthetic views for urban modelling.

Solving Navier-Stokes Equations with Advanced Turbulence Models on Three-Dimensional Unstructured Grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Qun-Zhen; Massey, Steven J.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Frink, Neal T.

1999-01-01

USM3D is a widely-used unstructured flow solver for simulating inviscid and viscous flows over complex geometries. The current version (version 5.0) of USM3D, however, does not have advanced turbulence models to accurately simulate complicated flows. We have implemented two modified versions of the original Jones and Launder k-epsilon two-equation turbulence model and the Girimaji algebraic Reynolds stress model in USM3D. Tests have been conducted for two flat plate boundary layer cases, a RAE2822 airfoil and an ONERA M6 wing. The results are compared with those of empirical formulae, theoretical results and the existing Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model.

Breast Cancer Risk Reduction, Version 2.2015.

PubMed

Bevers, Therese B; Ward, John H; Arun, Banu K; Colditz, Graham A; Cowan, Kenneth H; Daly, Mary B; Garber, Judy E; Gemignani, Mary L; Gradishar, William J; Jordan, Judith A; Korde, Larissa A; Kounalakis, Nicole; Krontiras, Helen; Kumar, Shicha; Kurian, Allison; Laronga, Christine; Layman, Rachel M; Loftus, Loretta S; Mahoney, Martin C; Merajver, Sofia D; Meszoely, Ingrid M; Mortimer, Joanne; Newman, Lisa; Pritchard, Elizabeth; Pruthi, Sandhya; Seewaldt, Victoria; Specht, Michelle C; Visvanathan, Kala; Wallace, Anne; Bergman, Mary Ann; Kumar, Rashmi

2015-07-01

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed malignancy in women in the United States and is second only to lung cancer as a cause of cancer death. To assist women who are at increased risk of developing breast cancer and their physicians in the application of individualized strategies to reduce breast cancer risk, NCCN has developed these guidelines for breast cancer risk reduction. Copyright © 2015 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

78 FR 32224 - Availability of Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-29

... Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional Discussion Topics in Connect America Cost Model Virtual Workshop AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Proposed rule... America Cost Model (CAM v3.1.2), which allows Commission staff and interested parties to calculate costs...

78 FR 14533 - Official Release of EMFAC2011 Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for Use in the State of California

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... testing of interim versions of the model with air districts and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs... Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for Use in the State of California AGENCY: Environmental Protection... of the latest version of the California EMFAC model (short for EMission FACtor) for use in state...

Alternative Factor Models and Heritability of the Short Leyton Obsessional Inventory--Children's Version

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Janette; Smith, Gillian W.; Shevlin, Mark; O'Neill, Francis A.

2010-01-01

An alternative models framework was used to test three confirmatory factor analytic models for the Short Leyton Obsessional Inventory-Children's Version (Short LOI-CV) in a general population sample of 517 young adolescent twins (11-16 years). A one-factor model as implicit in current classification systems of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD),…

EVALUATION OF THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODEL VERSION 4.5: UNCERTAINTIES AND SENSITIVITIES IMPACTING MODEL PERFORMANCE: PART I - OZONE

EPA Science Inventory

This study examines ozone (O₃) predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5 and discusses potential factors influencing the model results. Daily maximum 8-hr average O₃ levels are largely underpredicted when observed O_...

A Hemispheric Version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System

EPA Science Inventory

This invited presentation will be given at the 4th Biannual Western Modeling Workshop in the Plenary session on Global model development, evaluation, and new source attribution tools. We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine th...

Performance Assessment of New Land-Surface and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics in the WRF-ARW

EPA Science Inventory

The Pleim-Xiu land surface model, Pleim surface layer scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model (version 2) are now options in version 3.0 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. These physics parameterizations were developed for the f...

Incremental Testing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Version 4.7

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the scientific and structural updates to the latest release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 (v4.7) and points the reader to additional resources for further details. The model updates were evaluated relative to obse...

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): Release No. 2 - Overview and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, B.; Johnson, D.; Tyree, L.

1993-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM), a science and engineering model for empirically parameterizing the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere, is described with particular attention to the model's newest version, Mars-GRAM, Release No. 2 and to the improvements incorporated into the Release No. 2 model as compared with the Release No. 1 version. These improvements include (1) an addition of a new capability to simulate local-scale Martian dust storms and the growth and decay of these storms; (2) an addition of the Zurek and Haberle (1988) wave perturbation model, for simulating tidal perturbation effects; and (3) a new modular version of Mars-GRAM, for incorporation as a subroutine into other codes.

[Occupational dermatoses. Cross-cultural adaptation of the Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire (NOSQ-2002) from English to Spanish and Catalan].

PubMed

Sala-Sastre, N; Herdman, M; Navarro, L; de la Prada, M; Pujol, R; Serra, C; Alonso, J; Flyvholm, M A; Giménez-Arnau, A M

2009-10-01

Eczema of the hands and urticaria are very common occupational dermatoses. The Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire (NOSQ-2002), developed in English, is an essential tool for the study of occupational skin diseases. The short version of the questionnaire is useful for screening and the long version is used to study risk factors. OBJECTIVE. The aim of this study was to culturally adapt the long version of the NOSQ to Spanish and Catalan and to ensure comprehension, semantic validity, and equivalence with the original. The principles of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research for good research practices were applied. A 4-phase method was used, with direct, revised translation, back translation, and cognitive interviews. After direct translation, a first version was issued by the Spanish Working Group. This version was evaluated in cognitive interviews. Modifications were made to 39 questions (68 %) in the Spanish version and 27 questions (47 %) in the Catalan version. Changes included addition of examples to improve understanding, reformulation of instructions, change to use of a direct question format, and addition of certain definitions. The back translation was evaluated by the original authors, leading to a further 7 changes in the Spanish version and 2 in the Catalan version. The third consensus version underwent a second round of cognitive interviews, after which the definitive version in each language was issued. CONCLUSION. Spanish and Catalan versions of the NOSQ-2002 questionnaire are available at www.ami.dk/NOSQ and www.arbejdsmiljoforskning.dk.

[Interest of a collaboration between the vigilances' coordination and care-related risks management committees in a health care center].

PubMed

Lassale, B; Ragni, J; Besse-Moreau, M

2013-05-01

Health care vigilance committees appeared with time in France. Some vigilance entities are present at a regional level, but all are found at the National Drugs and Health Care Products Safety Agency. Along with health care centers' certification, vigilance committees' coordination has evolved: whereas its presence was optional in the first version of certification, it has now imposed itself within health care centers with the more recent versions of certification, detailing the actions it must undertake. In parallel, a lot of attention is put on health care-related risk management with a health care center. Vigilances' coordination can thus take advantage of this in sharing an incident declaration system common with that of health care-related risks management. This collaboration will enable the generation of a priori risks' maps, help analyze adverse events and use the notion of criticality within a global safe care policy in each health care facility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Psychometric Validation of the English and French Versions of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5).

PubMed

Ashbaugh, Andrea R; Houle-Johnson, Stephanie; Herbert, Christophe; El-Hage, Wissam; Brunet, Alain

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the psychometric properties of a French version of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), a self-report measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and to further validate the existing English version of the measure. Undergraduate students (n = 838 English, n = 262 French) completed the PCL-5 as well as other self-report symptom measures of PTSD and depression online. Both the English and French versions PCL-5 total scores demonstrated excellent internal consistency (English: α = .95; French: α = .94), and strong convergent and divergent validity. Strong internal consistency was also observed for each of the four subscales for each version (α's > .79). Test-retest reliability for the French version of the measure was also very good (r = .89). Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the four-factor DSM-5 model was not a good fit of the data. The seven-factor hybrid model best fit the data in each sample, but was only marginally superior to the six-factor anhedonia model. The French version of the PCL-5 demonstrated the same psychometric qualities as both the English version of the same measure and previous versions of the PCL. Thus clinicians serving French-speaking clients now have access to this highly used screening instrument. With regards to the structural validity of the PCL-5 and of the new PTSD diagnostic structure of the DSM-5, additional research is warranted. Replication of our results in clinical samples is much needed.

Psychometric Validation of the English and French Versions of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5)

PubMed Central

Ashbaugh, Andrea R.; Houle-Johnson, Stephanie; Herbert, Christophe; El-Hage, Wissam; Brunet, Alain

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the psychometric properties of a French version of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), a self-report measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and to further validate the existing English version of the measure. Undergraduate students (n = 838 English, n = 262 French) completed the PCL-5 as well as other self-report symptom measures of PTSD and depression online. Both the English and French versions PCL-5 total scores demonstrated excellent internal consistency (English: α = .95; French: α = .94), and strong convergent and divergent validity. Strong internal consistency was also observed for each of the four subscales for each version (α’s > .79). Test-retest reliability for the French version of the measure was also very good (r = .89). Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the four-factor DSM-5 model was not a good fit of the data. The seven-factor hybrid model best fit the data in each sample, but was only marginally superior to the six-factor anhedonia model. The French version of the PCL-5 demonstrated the same psychometric qualities as both the English version of the same measure and previous versions of the PCL. Thus clinicians serving French-speaking clients now have access to this highly used screening instrument. With regards to the structural validity of the PCL-5 and of the new PTSD diagnostic structure of the DSM-5, additional research is warranted. Replication of our results in clinical samples is much needed. PMID:27723815

Quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 1: Individual participant data meta-analysis and health economic analysis

PubMed Central

Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen A; Morris, Rachel K; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben W; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane E

2018-01-01

Introduction The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. Methods and analysis The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In part 1 of the study, we will develop and internally validate a prognostic model using an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of existing studies containing women with symptoms of preterm labour alongside fFN measurements and pregnancy outcome. An economic analysis will be undertaken to assess potential cost-effectiveness of the qfFN prognostic model. The primary endpoint will be the ability of the prognostic model to rule out spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. Six eligible studies were identified by systematic review of the literature and five agreed to provide their IPD (n=5 studies, 1783 women and 139 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). Ethics and dissemination The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). PROSPERO registration number CRD42015027590. Version Protocol version 2, date 1 November 2016. PMID:29627817

Cognitive Complexity of the Medical Record Is a Risk Factor for Major Adverse Events

PubMed Central

Roberson, David; Connell, Michael; Dillis, Shay; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Gore, Rebecca; Heagerty, Elaina; Jenkins, Kathy; Ma, Lin; Maurer, Amy; Stephenson, Jessica; Schwartz, Margot

2014-01-01

Context: Patients in tertiary care hospitals are more complex than in the past, but the implications of this are poorly understood because “patient complexity” has been difficult to quantify. Objective: We developed a tool, the Complexity Ruler, to quantify the amount of data (as bits) in the patient’s medical record. We designated the amount of data in the medical record as the cognitive complexity of the medical record (CCMR). We hypothesized that CCMR is a useful surrogate for true patient complexity and that higher CCMR correlates with risk of major adverse events. Design: The Complexity Ruler was validated by comparing the measured CCMR with physician rankings of patient complexity on specific inpatient services. It was tested in a case-control model of all patients with major adverse events at a tertiary care pediatric hospital from 2005 to 2006. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcome measure was an externally reported major adverse event. We measured CCMR for 24 hours before the event, and we estimated lifetime CCMR. Results: Above empirically derived cutoffs, 24-hour and lifetime CCMR were risk factors for major adverse events (odds ratios, 5.3 and 6.5, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, CCMR alone was essentially as predictive of risk as a model that started with 30-plus clinical factors. Conclusions: CCMR correlates with physician assessment of complexity and risk of adverse events. We hypothesize that increased CCMR increases the risk of physician cognitive overload. An automated version of the Complexity Ruler could allow identification of at-risk patients in real time. PMID:24626065

Validation of the French Version of the DSM-5 Yale Food Addiction Scale in a Nonclinical Sample

PubMed Central

Courtois, Robert; Gearhardt, Ashley N.; Gaillard, Philippe; Journiac, Kevin; Cathelain, Sarah; Réveillère, Christian; Ballon, Nicolas

2016-01-01

Objective: The Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS) is the only questionnaire that assesses food addiction (FA) based on substance dependence criteria in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), Fourth Edition, Text Revision. Following recent updating of addiction criteria, a new DSM-5 version (YFAS 2.0) has been developed. Our study tested the psychometric properties of the French YFAS 2.0 in a nonclinical population. Method: We assessed 330 nonclinical participants for FA (French YFAS 2.0), eating behaviour, and eating disorder (Binge Eating Scale, Emotional Overeating Questionnaire, Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18, Questionnaire on Eating and Weight Patterns-Revised, Eating Disorder Diagnostic Scale). We tested the scale’s factor structure (confirmatory factor analysis based on 11 diagnostic criteria), internal consistency, and construct and incremental validity. Results: Prevalence of FA was 8.2%. Our results supported a 1-factor structure similar to the US version. In both its diagnostic and symptom count versions, the YFAS 2.0 had good internal consistency (Kuder-Richardson alpha was 0.83) and was associated with body mass index (BMI), binge eating, uncontrolled and emotional eating, binge eating disorder, and cognitive restraint. FA predicted BMI above and beyond binge eating frequency. Females had a higher prevalence of FA than males but not more FA symptoms. Conclusions: We validated a psychometrically sound French version of the YFAS 2.0 in a nonclinical population, in both its symptom count and diagnostic versions. Future studies should investigate psychometric properties of this questionnaire in clinical populations potentially at risk for FA (that is, patients with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, or other metabolic syndrome risk factors). PMID:28212499

Cross-cultural Adaptation and Validation of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella Questionnaire for French-Speaking Patients With Patellar Tendinopathy.

PubMed

Kaux, Jean-François; Delvaux, François; Oppong-Kyei, Julian; Beaudart, Charlotte; Buckinx, Fanny; Croisier, Jean-Louis; Forthomme, Bénédicte; Crielaard, Jean-Michel; Bruyère, Olivier

2016-05-01

Study Design Clinical measurement study. Background The Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P), originally developed in English, assesses the severity of patellar tendinopathy symptoms. To date, no French version of the questionnaire exists. Objectives The aim of our study was to translate the VISA-P into French and verify its psychometric properties. Methods The translation and cultural adaptation were performed according to international recommendations in 6 steps: initial translation, translation merging, back translation to the original language, use of an expert committee to reach a prefinal version, test of the prefinal version, and expert committee appraisal of a final version. Afterward, the psychometric properties of the final French version (VISA-PF) were assessed in 92 subjects, divided into 3 groups: pathological subjects (n = 28), asymptomatic subjects (n = 22), and sports-risk subjects (n = 42). Results All members of the expert committee agreed with the final version. On a scale ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 representing an asymptomatic subject, the average ± SD scores on the VISA-PF were 53 ± 17 for the pathological group, 99 ± 2 for the healthy group, and 86 ± 14 for the sports-risk group. The test-retest reliability of the VISA-PF was excellent, with good internal consistency. Correlations between the VISA-PF and divergent validity of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) were low, and the correlation coefficient values measured between the VISA-PF scores and converged items of the SF-36 were higher. Conclusion The VISA-PF is understandable, valid, and suitable for French-speaking patients with patellar tendinopathy. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2016;46(5):384-390. Epub 21 Mar 2016. doi:10.2519/jospt.2016.5937.

Validation of the French Version of the DSM-5 Yale Food Addiction Scale in a Nonclinical Sample.

PubMed

Brunault, Paul; Courtois, Robert; Gearhardt, Ashley N; Gaillard, Philippe; Journiac, Kevin; Cathelain, Sarah; Réveillère, Christian; Ballon, Nicolas

2017-03-01

The Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS) is the only questionnaire that assesses food addiction (FA) based on substance dependence criteria in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), Fourth Edition, Text Revision. Following recent updating of addiction criteria, a new DSM-5 version (YFAS 2.0) has been developed. Our study tested the psychometric properties of the French YFAS 2.0 in a nonclinical population. We assessed 330 nonclinical participants for FA (French YFAS 2.0), eating behaviour, and eating disorder (Binge Eating Scale, Emotional Overeating Questionnaire, Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18, Questionnaire on Eating and Weight Patterns-Revised, Eating Disorder Diagnostic Scale). We tested the scale's factor structure (confirmatory factor analysis based on 11 diagnostic criteria), internal consistency, and construct and incremental validity. Prevalence of FA was 8.2%. Our results supported a 1-factor structure similar to the US version. In both its diagnostic and symptom count versions, the YFAS 2.0 had good internal consistency (Kuder-Richardson alpha was 0.83) and was associated with body mass index (BMI), binge eating, uncontrolled and emotional eating, binge eating disorder, and cognitive restraint. FA predicted BMI above and beyond binge eating frequency. Females had a higher prevalence of FA than males but not more FA symptoms. We validated a psychometrically sound French version of the YFAS 2.0 in a nonclinical population, in both its symptom count and diagnostic versions. Future studies should investigate psychometric properties of this questionnaire in clinical populations potentially at risk for FA (that is, patients with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, or other metabolic syndrome risk factors).

Improved radial dose function estimation using current version MCNP Monte-Carlo simulation: Model 6711 and ISC3500 125I brachytherapy sources.

PubMed

Duggan, Dennis M

2004-12-01

Improved cross-sections in a new version of the Monte-Carlo N-particle (MCNP) code may eliminate discrepancies between radial dose functions (as defined by American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group 43) derived from Monte-Carlo simulations of low-energy photon-emitting brachytherapy sources and those from measurements on the same sources with thermoluminescent dosimeters. This is demonstrated for two 125I brachytherapy seed models, the Implant Sciences Model ISC3500 (I-Plant) and the Amersham Health Model 6711, by simulating their radial dose functions with two versions of MCNP, 4c2 and 5.

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations with JSBACH (version 3.10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goll, Daniel S.; Winkler, Alexander J.; Raddatz, Thomas; Dong, Ning; Prentice, Ian Colin; Ciais, Philippe; Brovkin, Victor

2017-05-01

Recent advances in the representation of soil carbon decomposition and carbon-nitrogen interactions implemented previously into separate versions of the land surface scheme JSBACH are here combined in a single version, which is set to be used in the upcoming 6th phase of coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6).Here we demonstrate that the new version of JSBACH is able to reproduce the spatial variability in the reactive nitrogen-loss pathways as derived from a compilation of δ15N data (R = 0. 76, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0. 2, Taylor score = 0. 83). The inclusion of carbon-nitrogen interactions leads to a moderate reduction (-10 %) of the carbon-concentration feedback (βL) and has a negligible effect on the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to warming (γL) compared to the same version of the model without carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations (1 % increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide per year). In line with evidence from elevated carbon dioxide manipulation experiments, pronounced nitrogen scarcity is alleviated by (1) the accumulation of nitrogen due to enhanced nitrogen inputs by biological nitrogen fixation and reduced losses by leaching and volatilization. Warming stimulated turnover of organic nitrogen further counteracts scarcity.The strengths of the land carbon feedbacks of the recent version of JSBACH, with βL = 0. 61 Pg ppm-1 and γL = -27. 5 Pg °C-1, are 34 and 53 % less than the averages of CMIP5 models, although the CMIP5 version of JSBACH simulated βL and γL, which are 59 and 42 % higher than multi-model average. These changes are primarily due to the new decomposition model, indicating the importance of soil organic matter decomposition for land carbon feedbacks.

Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2014 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2014-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2014 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2010 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2014) describe how to use the model for simulation....

Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai  Zhu

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2016 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2013 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2015) describe how to use the model for...

Factors associated with perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school female learners in Mbonge subdivision of rural Cameroon.

PubMed

Tarkang, Elvis Enowbeyang

2014-01-01

Since learners in secondary schools fall within the age group hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, it is obvious that these learners might be at high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS. However, little has been explored on the perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school learners in Cameroon. This study aimed at examining the perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school learners in Mbonge subdivision of rural Cameroon using the Health Belief Model (HBM) as framework. A quantitative, correlational design was adopted, using a self-administered questionnaire to collect data from 210 female learners selected through disproportional, stratified, simple random sampling technique, from three participating senior secondary schools. Statistics were calculated using SPSS version 20 software program. Only 39.4% of the respondents perceived themselves to be at high risk of contracting HIV, though the majority, 54.0% were sexually active. Multinomial logistic regression analyses show that sexual risk behaviours (p=0.000) and the Integrated Value Mapping (IVM) of the perception components of the HBM are the most significant factors associated with perception of risk of contracting HIV at the level p<0.05. The findings of this study can play an instrumental role in the development of effective preventive and interventional messages for adolescents in Cameroon.

Nurses' short-term prediction of violence in acute psychiatric intensive care.

PubMed

Björkdahl, A; Olsson, D; Palmstierna, T

2006-03-01

To evaluate the short-term predictive capacity of the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) when used by nurses in a psychiatric intensive care unit. Seventy-three patients were assessed according to the BVC three times daily. Violent incidents were recorded with the Staff Observation Aggression Scale, revised version. An extended Cox proportional hazards model with multiple events and time-dependent covariates was estimated to evaluate how the highest BVC sum of the last 24 h and its separate items affect the risk for severe violence within the next 24 h. With a BVC sum of one or more, hazard for severe violence was six times higher than if the sum was zero. Four of the six separate items significantly increased the risk for severe violence with hazard ratios between 3.0 and 6.3. Risk for in-patient violence in a short-term perspective can to a high degree be predicted by nurses using the BVC.

ADVISORY ON UPDATED METHODOLOGY FOR ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) published the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) committee's report (BEIR VII) on risks from ionizing radiation exposures in 2006. The Committee analyzed the most recent epidemiology from the important exposed cohorts and factored in changes resulting from the updated analysis of dosimetry for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. To the extent practical, the Committee also considered relevant radiobiological data, including that from the Department of Energy's low dose effects research program. Based on the review of this information, the Committee proposed a set of models for estimating risks from low-dose ionizing radiation. ORIA then prepared a white paper revising the Agency's methodology for estimating cancer risks from exposure to ionizing radiation in light of this report and other relevant information. This is the first product to be developed as a result of the BEIR VII report. We requested that the SAB conduct an advisory during the development of this methodology. The second product to be prepared will be a revised version of the document,

Building an Evaluation Framework for the VIC Model in the NLDAS Testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Mocko, D. M.; Wang, S.; Pan, M.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Wei, H.; Ek, M. B.

2017-12-01

Since the second phase of North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) was operationally implemented at NCEP in August 2014, developing the third phase of NLDAS system (NLDAS-3) has been a key task for the NCEP and NASA NLDAS team. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is one major component of the NLDAS system. The current operational NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.3 (VIC403), research NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.5 (VIC405), and LIS-based (Land Information System) NLDAS uses version 4.1.2 (VIC412). The purpose of this study is to compressively evaluate three versions and document changes in model behavior towards VIC412 for NLDAS-3. To do that, we develop a relatively comprehensive framework including multiple variables and metrics to assess the performance of different versions. This framework is being incorporated into the NASA Land Verification Toolkit (LVT) for evaluation of other LSMs for NLDAS-3 development. The evaluation results show that there are large and significant improvements for VIC412 in southeastern United States when compared with VIC403 and VIC405. In the other regions, there are very limited improvements or even some degree of deteriorations. Potential reasons are due to: (1) few USGS streamflow observations for soil and hydrologic parameter calibration, (2) the lack of re-calibration of VIC412 in the NLDAS domain, and (3) changes in model physics from VIC403 to VIC412. Overall, the model version upgrade largely/significantly enhances model performance and skill score for all United States except for the Great Plains, suggesting a right direction for VIC model development. Some further efforts are needed for science understanding of land surface physical processes in GP and a re-calibration for VIC412 using reasonable reference datasets is suggested.

Industrial Waste Management Evaluation Model Version 3.1

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

IWEM is a screening level ground water model designed to simulate contaminant fate and transport. IWEM v3.1 is the latest version of the IWEM software, which includes additional tools to evaluate the beneficial use of industrial materials

Integrated Noise Model (INM) version 6.0 technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-31

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (FAA, AEE-100) has : developed Version 6.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the John A. Volpe : National Transportation Systems Center, Acoustics Facility (Vol...

FHWA traffic noise model, version 1.0 : user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

This User's Guide is for the Federal Highway Administration's Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM), Version 1.0 -- the FHWAs computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Two companion reports, a Technical Manual and a data repor...

Integrated noise model (INM) version 7.0 technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-31

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (FAA, AEE-100) has developed Version 7.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Acoustics Facility (Volpe C...

FHWA Traffic Noise Model, version 1.0 technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-01

This Technical Manual is for the Federal Highway Administrations Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM), Version 1.0 -- the FHWAs computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Two companion reports, a Users Guide and a data r...

Integrated noise model (INM) version 7.0 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-04-01

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, Noise Division (AEE-100) has developed Version 7.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the ATAC Corporation and the Department of Transportation Volpe National T...

Integrated Noise Model (INM), version 5.1 : technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (FAA, AEE-120) : has developed Version 5.1 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the : John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Acoustics Facility (Vol...

Screening for Malnutrition in Community Dwelling Older Japanese: Preliminary Development and Evaluation of the Japanese Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST).

PubMed

Htun, N C; Ishikawa-Takata, K; Kuroda, A; Tanaka, T; Kikutani, T; Obuchi, S P; Hirano, H; Iijima, K

2016-02-01

Early and effective screening for age-related malnutrition is an essential part of providing optimal nutritional care to older populations. This study was performed to evaluate the adaptation of the original SCREEN II questionnaire (Seniors in the Community: Risk Evaluation for Eating and Nutrition, version II) for use in Japan by examining its measurement properties and ability to predict nutritional risk and sarcopenia in community-dwelling older Japanese people. The ultimate objective of this preliminary validation study is to develop a license granted full Japanese version of the SCREEN II. The measurement properties and predictive validity of the NRST were examined in this cross-sectional study of 1921 community-dwelling older Japanese people. Assessments included medical history, and anthropometric and serum albumin measurements. Questions on dietary habits that corresponded to the original SCREEN II were applied to Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST) scoring system. Nutritional risk was assessed by the Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI) and the short form of the Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF). Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the criteria of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. The nutritional risk prevalences determined by the GNRI and MNA-SF were 5.6% and 34.7%, respectively. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 13.3%. Mean NRST scores were significantly lower in the nutritionally at-risk than in the well-nourished groups. Concurrent validity analysis showed significant correlations between NRST scores and both nutritional risk parameters (GNRI or MNA-SF) and sarcopenia. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of NRST for the prediction of nutritional risk were 0.635 and 0.584 as assessed by GNRI and MNA-SF, respectively. AUCs for the prediction of sarcopenia were 0.602 (NRST), 0.655 (age-integrated NRST), and 0.676 (age and BMI-integrated NRST). These results indicate that the NRST is a promising screening tool for the prediction of malnutrition and sarcopenia in community-dwelling older Japanese people. Further development of a full Japanese version of the SCREEN II is indicated.

SBRT for the Primary Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer: The Effect of Gleason Score, Dose and Heterogeneity of Intermediate Risk on Outcome Utilizing 2.2014 NCCN Risk Stratification Guidelines.

PubMed

Bernetich, Matthew; Oliai, Caspian; Lanciano, Rachelle; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lamond, John; Arrigo, Stephen; Yang, Jun; Good, Michael; Feng, Jing; Brown, Royce; Garber, Bruce; Mooreville, Michael; Brady, Luther W

2014-01-01

To report an update of our previous experience using stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for the primary treatment of prostate cancer, risk stratified by the updated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) version 2.2014, reporting efficacy and toxicity in a community hospital setting. From 2007 to 2012, 142 localized prostate cancer patients were treated with SBRT using CyberKnife. NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014 risk groups analyzed included very low (20%), low (23%), intermediate (35%), and high (22%) risk. To further explore group heterogeneity and to comply with new guidelines, we separated our prior intermediate risk group into favorable intermediate and unfavorable intermediate groups depending on how many intermediate risk factors were present (one vs. > one). The unfavorable intermediate group was further analyzed in combination with the high risk group as per NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014. Various dose levels were used over the years of treatment, and have been categorized into low dose (35 Gy, n = 5 or 36.25 Gy, n = 107) and high dose (37.5 Gy, n = 30). All treatments were delivered in five fractions. Toxicity was assessed using radiation therapy oncology group criteria. Five-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) was 100, 91.7, 95.2, 90.0, and 86.7% for very low, low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively. A significant difference in 5 year FFBF was noted for patients with Gleason score (GS) ≥8 vs. 7 vs. 5/6 (p = 0.03) and low vs. high dose (p = 0.05). T-stage, pretreatment PSA, age, risk stratification group, and use of ADT did not affect 5-year FFBF. Multivariate analysis revealed GS and dose to be the most predictive factors for 5-year FFBF. Our experience with SBRT for the primary treatment of localized prostate cancer demonstrates favorable efficacy and toxicity comparable to the results reported for IMRT in literature. GS remains the single most important pretreatment predictor of outcome.

Association between maternal, fetal and paternal MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and risk of recurrent pregnancy loss: a comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Yang, Yi; Luo, Yunyao; Yuan, Jing; Tang, Yidan; Xiong, Lang; Xu, MangMang; Rao, XuDong; Liu, Hao

2016-06-01

Numerous studies have investigated the associations between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and risk of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL); however, the results remain controversial. The aim of this study is to drive a more precise estimation of association between MTHFR gene polymorphisms and risk of RPL. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Web of Science and China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database for papers on MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and RPL risk. The pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of association in the homozygous model, heterozygous model, dominant model, recessive model and an additive model. The software STATA (Version 13.0) was used for statistical analysis. Overall, 57 articles were included in the final meta-analysis. In maternal group the MTHFR C677T polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for the homozygous comparison [OR = 2.285, 95 % CI (1.702, 3.067)] and the MTHFR A1298C polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for recessive model [OR = 1.594, 95 % CI (1.136, 2.238)]. In fetal group the MTHFR C677T polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for dominant model [OR = 1.037, 95 % CI (0.567, 1.894)] and the MTHFR A1298C polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for dominant model [OR = 1.495, 95 % CI (1.102, 2.026)]. In summary, the results of our meta-analysis indicate that maternal and paternal MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms are associated with RPL. We also observed a significant association between fetal MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and RPL but not C677T.

NLC Mechanical

Science.gov Websites

group depend on the project phase and the maturity of the NLC design. Currently the NLC project is in design approaches that will enable cost estimates, schedules, risk assessment and risk reduction availability are utilized in generating and selecting among design alternatives. A more comprehensive version

Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Treatment (PDQ®)—Health Professional Version

Cancer.gov

For acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the 5-year survival rate has improved significantly since 1975. Get information about risk factors, signs, diagnosis, molecular features, survival, risk-based treatment assignment, and induction and postinduction therapy for children and adolescents with newly diagnosed and recurrent ALL.

Cancer Screening Overview (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Cancer screening means looking for cancer before symptoms appear, when cancer may be easier to treat. Screening tests can help reduce the risk of dying from some cancers, but all tests have potential risks, too. Learn more about cancer screening and available tests in this expert-reviewed summary.

THE USEPA'S METAL FINISHING FACILITY RISK SCREENING TOOL (MFFRST)

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmetal ProtectionAgenccy's Metal Finishing
Facility Risk Screening Tool (MFFRST)

William M. Barrett Jr, Ph.D. , P.E. ; Paul Harten, Ph.D.1, and Matthew Lorber

The US Environmental Protection Agency completed the development of the first version of...

User's guide to Version 2 of the Regeneration Establishment Model: Part of the Prognosis Model

Treesearch

Dennis E. Ferguson; Nicholas L. Crookston

1991-01-01

This publication describes how to use version 2 of the Regeneration Establishment Model, a computer-based simulator that is part of the Prognosis Model for Stand Development. Conifer regeneration is predicted following harvest and site preparation for forests in western Montana, central Idaho, and northern Idaho. The influence of western spruce budworm (Choristoneura...

Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Sarah D. Pratt

2006-01-01

The range and variation of historical landscape dynamics could provide a useful reference for designing fuel treatments on today's landscapes. Simulation modeling is a vehicle that can be used to estimate the range of conditions experienced on historical landscapes. A landscape fire succession model called LANDSUMv4 (LANDscape SUccession Model version 4.0) is...

Paper and Slides on Draft Nonroad Emission Inventory Model: Presented at 12th International Emission Inventory Conference, April 2003

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Description of the most current draft of the NONROAD model and how it version differs from prior versions. Nationwide model outputs are presented and compared for HC, CO, NOx, PM, SOx (SO2), and fuel consumption, for diesel and for sparkignition engines.

TESTING U.S. EPA'S ISCST -VERSION 3 MODEL ON DIOXINS: A COMPARISON OF PREDICTED AND OBSERVED AIR AND SOIL CONCENTRATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The central purpose of our study was to examine the performance of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nonreactive Gaussian air quality dispersion model, the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Model (ISCST3) Version 98226, in predicting polychlorinated dib...

Version Control in Project-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milentijevic, Ivan; Ciric, Vladimir; Vojinovic, Oliver

2008-01-01

This paper deals with the development of a generalized model for version control systems application as a support in a range of project-based learning methods. The model is given as UML sequence diagram and described in detail. The proposed model encompasses a wide range of different project-based learning approaches by assigning a supervisory…

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SMOKE EMISSION DATA PROCESSOR AND SMOKE TOOL INPUT DATA PROCESSOR IN MODELS-3

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has implemented Version 1.3 of SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Object Kernel Emission) processor for preparation of area, mobile, point, and biogenic sources emission data within Version 4.1 of the Models-3 air quality modeling framework. The SMOK...

How to use the Stand-Damage Model: Version 2.0. (Computer program)

Treesearch

J.J. Colbert; George Racin

2001-01-01

The Stand-Damage Model simulates the growth of a forest stand, a spatially homogeneous collection of trees growing on a site. The model simulates growth from an initial inventory, user-prescribed management practices, and the effects of gypsy moth defoliation. Here we provide installation and operating instructions for Version 2.0.

Estimating postfire water production in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Donald F. Potts; David L. Peterson; Hans R. Zuuring

1989-01-01

Two hydrologic models were adapted to estimate postfire changer in water yield in Pacific Northwest watersheds. The WRENSS version of the simulation model PROSPER is used for hydrologic regimes dominated by rainfall: it calculates water available for streamflow onthe basis of seasonal precipitation and leaf area index. The WRENSS version of the simulation model WATBAL...

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moorhead, Althea V.

2017-01-01

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Validation of the Italian Version of the Caregiver Abuse Screen among Family Caregivers of Older People with Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Melchiorre, Maria Gabriella; Di Rosa, Mirko; Barbabella, Francesco; Barbini, Norma; Lattanzio, Fabrizia; Chiatti, Carlos

2017-01-01

Introduction . Elder abuse is often a hidden phenomenon and, in many cases, screening practices are difficult to implement among older people with dementia. The Caregiver Abuse Screen (CASE) is a useful tool which is administered to family caregivers for detecting their potential abusive behavior. Objectives . To validate the Italian version of the CASE tool in the context of family caregiving of older people with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and to identify risk factors for elder abuse in Italy. Methods . The CASE test was administered to 438 caregivers, recruited in the Up-Tech study. Validity and reliability were evaluated using Spearman's correlation coefficients, principal-component analysis, and Cronbach's alphas. The association between the CASE and other variables potentially associated with elder abuse was also analyzed. Results . The factor analysis suggested the presence of a single factor, with a strong internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86). CASE score was strongly correlated with well-known risk factors of abuse. At multivariate level, main factors associated with CASE total score were caregiver burden and AD-related behavioral disturbances. Conclusions . The Italian version of the CASE is a reliable and consistent screening tool for tackling the risk of being or becoming perpetrators of abuse by family caregivers of people with AD.

Validation of the Italian Version of the Caregiver Abuse Screen among Family Caregivers of Older People with Alzheimer's Disease

PubMed Central

Di Rosa, Mirko; Barbabella, Francesco; Barbini, Norma; Chiatti, Carlos

2017-01-01

Introduction. Elder abuse is often a hidden phenomenon and, in many cases, screening practices are difficult to implement among older people with dementia. The Caregiver Abuse Screen (CASE) is a useful tool which is administered to family caregivers for detecting their potential abusive behavior. Objectives. To validate the Italian version of the CASE tool in the context of family caregiving of older people with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and to identify risk factors for elder abuse in Italy. Methods. The CASE test was administered to 438 caregivers, recruited in the Up-Tech study. Validity and reliability were evaluated using Spearman's correlation coefficients, principal-component analysis, and Cronbach's alphas. The association between the CASE and other variables potentially associated with elder abuse was also analyzed. Results. The factor analysis suggested the presence of a single factor, with a strong internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86). CASE score was strongly correlated with well-known risk factors of abuse. At multivariate level, main factors associated with CASE total score were caregiver burden and AD-related behavioral disturbances. Conclusions. The Italian version of the CASE is a reliable and consistent screening tool for tackling the risk of being or becoming perpetrators of abuse by family caregivers of people with AD. PMID:28265571

Stress Mediates the Relationship Between Past Drug Addiction and Current Risky Sexual Behaviour Among Low-income Women.

PubMed

Wu, Z Helen; Tennen, Howard; Hosain, G M Monawar; Coman, Emil; Cullum, Jerry; Berenson, Abbey B

2016-04-01

This study examined the role of stress as a mediator of the relationship between prior drug addiction and current high-risk sexual behaviour. Eight hundred twenty women aged 18 to 30 years, who received care at community-based family planning clinics, were interviewed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and the Sexual Risk Behavior Assessment Schedule. They also completed the brief version of the Self-Control Scale as a measure of problem-solving strategies and measures of recent stressful events, daily hassles and ongoing chronic stress. Regardless of addiction history, stress exposure during the previous 12 months was associated with risky sexual behaviour during the previous 12 months. Structural equation modelling revealed that 12-month stress levels mediated the relationship between past drug addiction and 12-month high-risk sexual behaviours, as well as the negative relationship between problem-solving strategies and high-risk sexual behaviours. Problem-solving strategies did not moderate the relationship between drug addiction and high-risk sexual behaviours. These findings suggest that stress management training may help reduce risky behaviour among young, low-income women. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Space Environments and Effects: Trapped Proton Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huston, S. L.; Kauffman, W. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An improved model of the Earth's trapped proton environment has been developed. This model, designated Trapped Proton Model version 1 (TPM-1), determines the omnidirectional flux of protons with energy between 1 and 100 MeV throughout near-Earth space. The model also incorporates a true solar cycle dependence. The model consists of several data files and computer software to read them. There are three versions of the mo'del: a FORTRAN-Callable library, a stand-alone model, and a Web-based model.

Short-range ensemble predictions based on convection perturbations in the Eta Model for the Serra do Mar region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bustamante, J. F. F.; Chou, S. C.; Gomes, J. L.

2009-04-01

The Southeast Brazil, in the coastal and mountain region called Serra do Mar, between Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, is subject to frequent events of landslides and floods. The Eta Model has been producing good quality forecasts over South America at about 40-km horizontal resolution. For that type of hazards, however, more detailed and probabilistic information on the risks should be provided with the forecasts. Thus, a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) based on the Eta Model is being constructed. Ensemble members derived from perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions did not provide enough spread for the forecasts. Members with model physics perturbation are being included and tested. The objective of this work is to construct more members for the Eta SREPS by adding physics perturbed members. The Eta Model is configured at 10-km resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. The domain covered is most of Southeast Brazil, centered over the Serra do Mar region. The constructed members comprise variations of the cumulus parameterization Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes. Three members were constructed from the BMJ scheme by varying the deficit of saturation pressure profile over land and sea, and 2 members of the KF scheme were included using the standard KF and a momentum flux added to KF scheme version. One of the runs with BMJ scheme is the control run as it was used for the initial condition perturbation SREPS. The forecasts were tested for 6 cases of South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) events. The SACZ is a common summer season feature of Southern Hemisphere that causes persistent rain for a few days over the Southeast Brazil and it frequently organizes over Serra do Mar region. These events are particularly interesting because of the persistent rains that can accumulate large amounts and cause generalized landslides and death. With respect to precipitation, the KF scheme versions have shown to be able to reach the larger precipitation peaks of the events. On the other hand, for predicted 850-hPa temperature, the KF scheme versions produce positive bias and BMJ versions produce negative bias. Therefore, the ensemble mean forecast of 850-hPa temperature of this SREPS exhibits smaller error than the control member. Specific humidity shows smaller bias in the KF scheme. In general, the ensemble mean produced forecasts closer to the observations than the control run.

FHWA Traffic Noise Model user's guide (version 2.0 addendum).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

In March 1998, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Natural : Environment, released the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM) Version 1.0, a : state-of-the-art computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and : analysis. Since t...

Integrated Noise Model (INM) version 5.0 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (AEE-120) has : developed Version 5.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the ATAC : Corporation, the U.S. Department of Transportation John A. Volpe National : T...

HNM, heliport noise model : version 2.2 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-02-01

The John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center), in support of : the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, has developed : Version 2.2 of the Heliport Noise Model (HNM). The HNM is a computer progr...

Implementation of Advanced Two Equation Turbulence Models in the USM3D Unstructured Flow Solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Qun-Zhen; Massey, Steven J.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.

2000-01-01

USM3D is a widely-used unstructured flow solver for simulating inviscid and viscous flows over complex geometries. The current version (version 5.0) of USM3D, however, does not have advanced turbulence models to accurately simulate complicated flow. We have implemented two modified versions of the original Jones and Launder k-epsilon "two-equation" turbulence model and the Girimaji algebraic Reynolds stress model in USM3D. Tests have been conducted for three flat plate boundary layer cases, a RAE2822 airfoil and an ONERA M6 wing. The results are compared with those from direct numerical simulation, empirical formulae, theoretical results, and the existing Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model.

Oncotype DX breast cancer recurrence score can be predicted with a novel nomogram using clinicopathologic data.

PubMed

Orucevic, Amila; Bell, John L; McNabb, Alison P; Heidel, Robert E

2017-05-01

Oncotype DX (ODX) recurrence score (RS) breast cancer (BC) assay is costly, and performed in only ~1/3 of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive BC patients in the USA. We have now developed a user-friendly nomogram surrogate prediction model for ODX based on a large dataset from the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to assist in selecting patients for which further ODX testing may not be necessary and as a surrogate for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available. Six clinicopathologic variables of 27,719 ODX-tested ER+/HER2-/lymph node-negative patients with 6-50 mm tumor size captured by the NCDB from 2010 to 2012 were assessed with logistic regression to predict high-risk or low-risk ODXRS test results with TAILORx-trial and commercial cut-off values; 12,763 ODX-tested patients in 2013 were used for external validation. The predictive accuracy of the regression model was yielded using a Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis. Model fit was analyzed by plotting the predicted probabilities against the actual probabilities. A user-friendly calculator version of nomograms is available online at the University of Tennessee Medical Center website (Knoxville, TN). Grade and progesterone receptor status were the highest predictors of both low-risk and high-risk ODXRS, followed by age, tumor size, histologic tumor type and lymph-vascular invasion (C-indexes-.0.85 vs. 0.88 for TAILORx-trial vs. commercial cut-off values, respectively). This is the first study of this scale showing confidently that clinicopathologic variables can be used for prediction of low-risk or high-risk ODXRS using our nomogram models. These novel nomograms will be useful tools to help physicians and patients decide whether further ODX testing is necessary and are excellent surrogates for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available.

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion—PEST++ Version 3, a Parameter ESTimation and uncertainty analysis software suite optimized for large environmental models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welter, David E.; White, Jeremy T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.

2015-09-18

The PEST++ Version 3 software suite can be compiled for Microsoft Windows®4 and Linux®5 operating systems; the source code is available in a Microsoft Visual Studio®6 2013 solution; Linux Makefiles are also provided. PEST++ Version 3 continues to build a foundation for an open-source framework capable of producing robust and efficient parameter estimation tools for large environmental models.

An implicit dispersive transport algorithm for the US Geological Survey MOC3D solute-transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kipp, K.L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Hornberger, G.Z.

1998-01-01

This report documents an extension to the U.S. Geological Survey MOC3D transport model that incorporates an implicit-in-time difference approximation for the dispersive transport equation, including source/sink terms. The original MOC3D transport model (Version 1) uses the method of characteristics to solve the transport equation on the basis of the velocity field. The original MOC3D solution algorithm incorporates particle tracking to represent advective processes and an explicit finite-difference formulation to calculate dispersive fluxes. The new implicit procedure eliminates several stability criteria required for the previous explicit formulation. This allows much larger transport time increments to be used in dispersion-dominated problems. The decoupling of advective and dispersive transport in MOC3D, however, is unchanged. With the implicit extension, the MOC3D model is upgraded to Version 2. A description of the numerical method of the implicit dispersion calculation, the data-input requirements and output options, and the results of simulator testing and evaluation are presented. Version 2 of MOC3D was evaluated for the same set of problems used for verification of Version 1. These test results indicate that the implicit calculation of Version 2 matches the accuracy of Version 1, yet is more efficient than the explicit calculation for transport problems that are characterized by a grid Peclet number less than about 1.0.

Evaluation of the nutritional status of older hospitalised geriatric patients: a comparative analysis of a Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) version and the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002).

PubMed

Christner, S; Ritt, M; Volkert, D; Wirth, R; Sieber, C C; Gaßmann, K-G

2016-12-01

The present study aimed to evaluate a short-form (MNA-SF) version of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), in which some of the items were operationalised, based on scores from tools used for a comprehensive geriatric assessment, as a method for analysing the nutritional status of hospitalised geriatric patients. We compared this MNA-SF version with the corresponding MNA long-form (MNA-LF) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) in terms of completion rate, prevalence and agreement regarding malnutrition and/or the risk of this. In total, 201 patients aged ≥65 years who were hospitalised in geriatric wards were included in this analysis. The MNA-SF, MNA-LF and NRS 2002 were completed in 98.0%, 95.5% and 99.5% of patients (P = 0.06), respectively. The MNA-SF, MNA-LF and NRS 2002 categorised 93.4%, 91.1% and 66.0% of patients as being malnourished or at risk of being malnourished (P < 0.001). Agreement between the MNA-SF and MNA-LF was substantial (κ = 0.70, P < 0.001). No agreement between the MNA-SF and NRS 2002 was found (κ = -0.12, P < 0.001). Interestingly, NRS 2002 part 1 (prescreening) revealed a false negative rate of 21.0% (only in patients aged ≥70 years who showed moderate disease severity) in relation to the NRS 2002 part 2. The MNA-SF version emerged as a useful tool for evaluating the nutritional status of hospitalised geriatric patients. The NRS 2002 part 1 showed limited value as a prescreening aid in relation to the NRS 2002 part 2 in the same group of patients. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Assessing the Tangent Linear Behaviour of Common Tracer Transport Schemes and Their Use in a Linearised Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel; Kent, James

2015-01-01

The linearity of a selection of common advection schemes is tested and examined with a view to their use in the tangent linear and adjoint versions of an atmospheric general circulation model. The schemes are tested within a simple offline one-dimensional periodic domain as well as using a simplified and complete configuration of the linearised version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). All schemes which prevent the development of negative values and preserve the shape of the solution are confirmed to have nonlinear behaviour. The piecewise parabolic method (PPM) with certain flux limiters, including that used by default in GEOS-5, is found to support linear growth near the shocks. This property can cause the rapid development of unrealistically large perturbations within the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown that these schemes with flux limiters should not be used within the linearised version of a transport scheme. The results from tests using GEOS-5 show that the current default scheme (a version of PPM) is not suitable for the tangent linear and adjoint model, and that using a linear third-order scheme for the linearised model produces better behaviour. Using the third-order scheme for the linearised model improves the correlations between the linear and non-linear perturbation trajectories for cloud liquid water and cloud liquid ice in GEOS-5.

Proposal of a short-form version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Leonardo Pozza; Lindemann, Ivana Loraine; Motta, Janaína Vieira dos Santos; Mintem, Gicele; Bender, Eliana; Gigante, Denise Petrucci

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To propose a short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. METHODS Two samples were used to test the results obtained in the analyses in two distinct scenarios. One of the studies was composed of 230 low income families from Pelotas, RS, Southern Brazil, and the other was composed of 15,575 women, whose data were obtained from the 2006 National Survey on Demography and Health. Two models were tested, the first containing seven questions, and the second, the five questions that were considered the most relevant ones in the concordance analysis. The models were compared to the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy parameters were calculated, as well as the kappa agreement test. RESULTS Comparing the prevalence of food insecurity between the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale and the two models, the differences were around 2 percentage points. In the sensitivity analysis, the short version of seven questions obtained 97.8% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively, while specificity was 100% in both studies. The five-question model showed similar results (sensitivity of 95.7% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively). In the Pelotas sample, the kappa test of the seven-question version totaled 97.0% and that of the five-question version, 95.0%. In the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, the two models presented a 99.0% kappa. CONCLUSIONS We suggest that the model with five questions should be used as the short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, as its results were similar to the original scale with a lower number of questions. This version needs to be administered to other populations in Brazil in order to allow for the adequate assessment of the validity parameters. PMID:25372169

Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Modeling Using the TIME-GCM

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

respectively. The CCM3 is the NCAR Community Climate Model, Version 3.6, a GCM of the troposphere and stratosphere. All models include self-consistent...middle atmosphere version of the NCAR Community Climate Model, (2) the NCAR TIME-GCM, and (3) the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART... troposphere , but the impacts of such events extend well into the mesosphere. The coupled NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere- electrodynamics general

Identifying fine sediment sources to alleviate flood risk caused by fine sediments through catchment connectivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twohig, Sarah; Pattison, Ian; Sander, Graham

2017-04-01

Fine sediment poses a significant threat to UK river systems in terms of vegetation, aquatic habitats and morphology. Deposition of fine sediment onto the river bed reduces channel capacity resulting in decreased volume to contain high flow events. Once the in channel problem has been identified managers are under pressure to sustainably mitigate flood risk. With climate change and land use adaptations increasing future pressures on river catchments it is important to consider the connectivity of fine sediment throughout the river catchment and its influence on channel capacity, particularly in systems experiencing long term aggradation. Fine sediment erosion is a continuing concern in the River Eye, Leicestershire. The predominately rural catchment has a history of flooding within the town of Melton Mowbray. Fine sediment from agricultural fields has been identified as a major contributor of sediment delivery into the channel. Current mitigation measures are not sustainable or successful in preventing the continuum of sediment throughout the catchment. Identifying the potential sources and connections of fine sediment would provide insight into targeted catchment management. 'Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling Analysis Platforms' (SCIMAP) is a tool often used by UK catchment managers to identify potential sources and routes of sediment within a catchment. SCIMAP is a risk based model that combines hydrological (rainfall) and geomorphic controls (slope, land cover) to identify the risk of fine sediment being transported from source into the channel. A desktop version of SCIMAP was run for the River Eye at a catchment scale using 5m terrain, rainfall and land cover data. A series of SCIMAP model runs were conducted changing individual parameters to determine the sensitivity of the model. Climate Change prediction data for the catchment was used to identify potential areas of future connectivity and erosion risk for catchment managers. The results have been subjected to field validation as part of a wider research project which provides an indication of the robustness of widespread models as effective management tools.

Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code - Version 4.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Bednarcyk, B. A.

2005-01-01

Version 4.0 of the Micromechanics Analysis Code With Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) has been developed as an improved means of computational simulation of advanced composite materials. The previous version of MAC/GMC was described in "Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code" (LEW-16870), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 24, No. 6 (June 2000), page 38. To recapitulate: MAC/GMC is a computer program that predicts the elastic and inelastic thermomechanical responses of continuous and discontinuous composite materials with arbitrary internal microstructures and reinforcement shapes. The predictive capability of MAC/GMC rests on a model known as the generalized method of cells (GMC) - a continuum-based model of micromechanics that provides closed-form expressions for the macroscopic response of a composite material in terms of the properties, sizes, shapes, and responses of the individual constituents or phases that make up the material. Enhancements in version 4.0 include a capability for modeling thermomechanically and electromagnetically coupled ("smart") materials; a more-accurate (high-fidelity) version of the GMC; a capability to simulate discontinuous plies within a laminate; additional constitutive models of materials; expanded yield-surface-analysis capabilities; and expanded failure-analysis and life-prediction capabilities on both the microscopic and macroscopic scales.

Comparison of the Tangent Linear Properties of Tracer Transport Schemes Applied to Geophysical Problems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kent, James; Holdaway, Daniel

2015-01-01

A number of geophysical applications require the use of the linearized version of the full model. One such example is in numerical weather prediction, where the tangent linear and adjoint versions of the atmospheric model are required for the 4DVAR inverse problem. The part of the model that represents the resolved scale processes of the atmosphere is known as the dynamical core. Advection, or transport, is performed by the dynamical core. It is a central process in many geophysical applications and is a process that often has a quasi-linear underlying behavior. However, over the decades since the advent of numerical modelling, significant effort has gone into developing many flavors of high-order, shape preserving, nonoscillatory, positive definite advection schemes. These schemes are excellent in terms of transporting the quantities of interest in the dynamical core, but they introduce nonlinearity through the use of nonlinear limiters. The linearity of the transport schemes used in Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5), as well as a number of other schemes, is analyzed using a simple 1D setup. The linearized version of GEOS-5 is then tested using a linear third order scheme in the tangent linear version.

Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, Joseph D.; Langevin, Christian D.; Banta, Edward R.

2017-08-10

MODFLOW is a popular open-source groundwater flow model distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Growing interest in surface and groundwater interactions, local refinement with nested and unstructured grids, karst groundwater flow, solute transport, and saltwater intrusion, has led to the development of numerous MODFLOW versions. Often times, there are incompatibilities between these different MODFLOW versions. The report describes a new MODFLOW framework called MODFLOW 6 that is designed to support multiple models and multiple types of models. The framework is written in Fortran using a modular object-oriented design. The primary framework components include the simulation (or main program), Timing Module, Solutions, Models, Exchanges, and Utilities. The first version of the framework focuses on numerical solutions, numerical models, and numerical exchanges. This focus on numerical models allows multiple numerical models to be tightly coupled at the matrix level.

Making a Difference for Students at Risk. Trends and Alternatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Margaret C., Ed.; Reynolds, Maynard C., Ed.

Papers in this collection were commissioned for a conference entitled, "Making a Difference for Students at Risk," to serve as springboards for discussion. Discussions and recommendations from conferees were incorporated into the versions presented in this volume. The two topics that dominated discussion at the conference were: basic…

Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

Improvements of the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in MIROC6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirota, N.; Ogura, T.; Shiogama, H.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.; Tatebe, H.

2016-12-01

A new version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC6), has recently been developed. Many aspects of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations are improved compared with its previous version MIROC5. For example, MJO amplitudes underestimated in MIROC5 are enhanced; the MJO convective envelopes over the Indian Ocean, which often decays too early around the Maritime Continent in MIROC5, propagate farther to the Central Pacific; the vertical structure of the MJO related humidity shows more realistic stepwise moistening associated with the transition from shallow convection to deep convection. Our preliminary analyses indicate that these improvements are associated with a newly implemented shallow convection scheme. The shallow convection in MIROC6 transports the boundary layer moisture to the lower free troposphere, mitigating dry biases around 800hPa over the Western Pacific. MIROC6 also shows improvements in climatological mean precipitation. The coupling strength between convection and the free tropospheric humidity, that are consider to have large impacts on the reproducibility of the MJO and the mean states, will also be discussed. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI program) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

2015-05-01

A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

Argonne's Michael Wang talks about the GREET Model for reducing vehicle emi

ScienceCinema

Wang, Michael

2018-05-11

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. The most recent GREET versions are the GREET 1 2012 version for fuel-cycle analysis and GREET 2.7 version for vehicle-cycle analysis.

Spatial Variability in ADHD-Related Behaviors Among Children Born to Mothers Residing Near the New Bedford Harbor Superfund Site.

PubMed

Vieira, Verónica M; Fabian, M Patricia; Webster, Thomas F; Levy, Jonathan I; Korrick, Susan A

2017-05-15

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has an uncertain etiology, with potential contributions from different risk factors such as prenatal environmental exposure to organochlorines and metals, social risk factors, and genetics. The degree to which geographic variability in ADHD is independent of, or explained by, risk factors may provide etiological insight. We investigated determinants of geographic variation in ADHD-related behaviors among children living near the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated New Bedford Harbor (NBH) Superfund site in Massachusetts. Participants were 573 children recruited at birth (1993-1998) who were born to mothers residing near the NBH site. We assessed ADHD-related behaviors at age 8 years using Conners' Teacher Rating Scale-Revised: Long Version. Adjusted generalized additive models were used to smooth the association of pregnancy residence with ADHD-related behaviors and assess whether prenatal organochlorine or metal exposures, sociodemographic factors, or other factors explained spatial patterns. Models that adjusted for child's age and sex displayed significantly increased ADHD-related behavior among children whose mothers resided west of the NBH site during pregnancy. These spatial patterns persisted after adjusting for prenatal exposure to organochlorines and metals but were no longer significant after controlling for sociodemographic factors. The findings underscore the value of spatial analysis in identifying high-risk subpopulations and evaluating candidate risk factors. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

APOA5 -1131T>C and APOC3 -455T>C polymorphisms are associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Sun, Y; Zhou, R B; Chen, D M

2015-12-28

The aim of this study was to investigate correlations between apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5) -1131T>C and apolipoprotein C-III (APOC3) -455T>C polymorphisms and coronary heart disease (CHD). PubMed, Ovid, Cochrane Library, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang databases were searched using combinations of keywords relating to these polymorphisms and CHD. Studies retrieved from database searches were screened using our stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria, and Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Version 2.0 software was used for statistical analyses. In total, 115 studies were initially retrieved and after further selection, 11 were included in the meta-analysis. These 11 articles comprised 4840 patients with CHD in the case group and 4913 healthy participants in the control group. Meta-analysis revealed that APOA5 -1131T>C and APOC3 -455T>C polymorphisms increased CHD risk. In addition, subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that while the -1131T>C polymorphism elevated the risk of CHD in the Caucasian population under both allelic and dominant models, this increased risk was observed only under a dominant model in the Asian population. The results of our meta-analysis point to a strong link between both APOA5 -1131T>C and APOC3 -455T>C polymorphisms and an increased risk of CHD. Thus, these polymorphisms constitute important predictive indicators of CHD susceptibility.

FHWA Traffic Noise Model version 1.1 user's guide (Addendum)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-30

In March 1998, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Natural Environment, released the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM) Version 1.0, a state-of-the-art computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Since then, t...

HYDROLOGIC EVALUATION OF LANDFILL PERFORMANCE (HELP) MODEL - USER'S GUIDE FOR VERSION 3

EPA Science Inventory

This report documents the solution methods and process descriptions used in the Version 3 of the HELP model. Program documentation including program options, system and operating requirements, file structures, program structure and variable descriptions are provided in a separat...

Optimising and communicating options for the control of invasive plant disease when there is epidemiological uncertainty.

PubMed

Cunniffe, Nik J; Stutt, Richard O J H; DeSimone, R Erik; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A

2015-04-01

Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening). We demonstrate how to optimise control via removal of hosts surrounding detected infection (i.e. localised culling) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic epidemiological model. We show how to define optimal culling strategies that take account of stochasticity in disease spread, and how the effectiveness of disease control depends on epidemiological parameters determining pathogen infectivity, symptom emergence and spread, the initial level of infection, and the logistics and implementation of detection and control. We also consider how optimal culling strategies are conditioned on the levels of risk acceptance/aversion of decision makers, and show how to extend the analyses to account for potential larger-scale impacts of a small-scale outbreak. Control of local outbreaks by culling can be very effective, particularly when started quickly, but the optimum strategy and its performance are strongly dependent on epidemiological parameters (particularly those controlling dispersal and the extent of any cryptic infection, i.e. infectious hosts prior to symptoms), the logistics of detection and control, and the level of local and global risk that is deemed to be acceptable. A version of the model we developed to illustrate our methodology and results to an audience of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators and growers, is available online as an interactive, user-friendly interface at http://www.webidemics.com/. This version of our model allows the complex epidemiological principles that underlie our results to be communicated to a non-specialist audience.

Optimising and Communicating Options for the Control of Invasive Plant Disease When There Is Epidemiological Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Cunniffe, Nik J.; Stutt, Richard O. J. H.; DeSimone, R. Erik; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

2015-01-01

Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening). We demonstrate how to optimise control via removal of hosts surrounding detected infection (i.e. localised culling) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic epidemiological model. We show how to define optimal culling strategies that take account of stochasticity in disease spread, and how the effectiveness of disease control depends on epidemiological parameters determining pathogen infectivity, symptom emergence and spread, the initial level of infection, and the logistics and implementation of detection and control. We also consider how optimal culling strategies are conditioned on the levels of risk acceptance/aversion of decision makers, and show how to extend the analyses to account for potential larger-scale impacts of a small-scale outbreak. Control of local outbreaks by culling can be very effective, particularly when started quickly, but the optimum strategy and its performance are strongly dependent on epidemiological parameters (particularly those controlling dispersal and the extent of any cryptic infection, i.e. infectious hosts prior to symptoms), the logistics of detection and control, and the level of local and global risk that is deemed to be acceptable. A version of the model we developed to illustrate our methodology and results to an audience of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators and growers, is available online as an interactive, user-friendly interface at http://www.webidemics.com/. This version of our model allows the complex epidemiological principles that underlie our results to be communicated to a non-specialist audience. PMID:25874622

Enhancing empowerment in eating disorder prevention: Another examination of the REbeL peer education model.

PubMed

Breithaupt, Lauren; Eickman, Laura; Byrne, Catherine E; Fischer, Sarah

2017-04-01

Previously validated eating disorder (ED) prevention programs utilize either a targeted or universal approach. While both approaches have shown to be efficacious, implementing either style of program within a school setting remains a challenge. The current study describes an enhanced version of REbeL, a module based, continuous ED prevention program which utilizes a self-selection model of prevention in high school settings. The purpose of this study was to determine if an enhanced empowerment model of REbeL could increase feelings of empowerment and reduce eating disorder risk. We also aimed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention. High school peer-educators self-selected into the semi-manualized dissonance based intervention. Following feedback from a pilot trailed, enhanced peer-led group activities, designed to critique the thin ideal and designed to empower macro-changes in societal structures that emphasize the thin ideal, were added. The study (N=83) indicates that the program appears to be effective at reducing eating disorder risk factors and increasing empowerment. Participants reported reductions in body checking and internalization of the thin ideal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

PubMed

Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

2018-05-03

The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

The harm argument against surrogacy revisited: two versions not to forget.

PubMed

Agnafors, Marcus

2014-08-01

It has been a common claim that surrogacy is morally problematic since it involves harm to the child or the surrogate-the harm argument. Due to a growing body of empirical research, the harm argument has seen a decrease in popularity, as there seems to be little evidence of harmful consequences of surrogacy. In this article, two revised versions of the harm argument are developed. It is argued that the two suggested versions of the harm argument survive the current criticism against the standard harm argument. The first version argues that the child is harmed by being separated from the gestational mother. The second version directs attention to the fact that surrogacy involves great incentives to keep the gestational mother's level of maternal-fetal attachment low, which tend to increase the risk of harm to the child. While neither of the two arguments is conclusive regarding the moral status of surrogacy, both constitute important considerations that are often ignored.

A Matter of Time: Risk and Opportunity in the Out-of-School Hours. Recommendations for Strengthening Community Programs for Youth. Abridged Version. [with] Executive Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie Council on Adolescent Development, Washington, DC.

All over America, young adolescents' experiences of growing up have changed dramatically in the past two decades. Family life for adolescents has changed, adolescents face greater risks to their health, and greater risks of being poorly educated for the next century. Families, schools, and community organizations, the three pivotal institutions…

Study of a unified hardware and software fault-tolerant architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lala, Jaynarayan; Alger, Linda; Friend, Steven; Greeley, Gregory; Sacco, Stephen; Adams, Stuart

1989-01-01

A unified architectural concept, called the Fault Tolerant Processor Attached Processor (FTP-AP), that can tolerate hardware as well as software faults is proposed for applications requiring ultrareliable computation capability. An emulation of the FTP-AP architecture, consisting of a breadboard Motorola 68010-based quadruply redundant Fault Tolerant Processor, four VAX 750s as attached processors, and four versions of a transport aircraft yaw damper control law, is used as a testbed in the AIRLAB to examine a number of critical issues. Solutions of several basic problems associated with N-Version software are proposed and implemented on the testbed. This includes a confidence voter to resolve coincident errors in N-Version software. A reliability model of N-Version software that is based upon the recent understanding of software failure mechanisms is also developed. The basic FTP-AP architectural concept appears suitable for hosting N-Version application software while at the same time tolerating hardware failures. Architectural enhancements for greater efficiency, software reliability modeling, and N-Version issues that merit further research are identified.

IGT-Open: An open-source, computerized version of the Iowa Gambling Task.

PubMed

Dancy, Christopher L; Ritter, Frank E

2017-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is commonly used to understand the processes involved in decision-making. Though the task was originally run without a computer, using a computerized version of the task has become typical. These computerized versions of the IGT are useful, because they can make the task more standardized across studies and allow for the task to be used in environments where a physical version of the task may be difficult or impossible to use (e.g., while collecting brain imaging data). Though these computerized versions of the IGT have been useful for experimentation, having multiple software implementations of the task could present reliability issues. We present an open-source software version of the Iowa Gambling Task (called IGT-Open) that allows for millisecond visual presentation accuracy and is freely available to be used and modified. This software has been used to collect data from human subjects and also has been used to run model-based simulations with computational process models developed to run in the ACT-R architecture.

PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Webb, Richard M.; Payn, Robert A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2015-01-01

Computer models that simulate the hydrologic cycle at a watershed scale facilitate assessment of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow. This report describes an updated version of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of various combinations of climate and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology. Several new model components were developed, and all existing components were updated, to enhance performance and supportability. This report describes the history, application, concepts, organization, and mathematical formulation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and its model components. This updated version provides improvements in (1) system flexibility for integrated science, (2) verification of conservation of water during simulation, (3) methods for spatial distribution of climate boundary conditions, and (4) methods for simulation of soil-water flow and storage.

Implementation of a Message Passing Interface into a Cloud-Resolving Model for Massively Parallel Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zeng, Xi-Ping; Shie, Chung-Lin; Simpson, Joanne; Lang, Steve

2004-01-01

The capability for massively parallel programming (MPP) using a message passing interface (MPI) has been implemented into a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The design for the MPP with MPI uses the concept of maintaining similar code structure between the whole domain as well as the portions after decomposition. Hence the model follows the same integration for single and multiple tasks (CPUs). Also, it provides for minimal changes to the original code, so it is easily modified and/or managed by the model developers and users who have little knowledge of MPP. The entire model domain could be sliced into one- or two-dimensional decomposition with a halo regime, which is overlaid on partial domains. The halo regime requires that no data be fetched across tasks during the computational stage, but it must be updated before the next computational stage through data exchange via MPI. For reproducible purposes, transposing data among tasks is required for spectral transform (Fast Fourier Transform, FFT), which is used in the anelastic version of the model for solving the pressure equation. The performance of the MPI-implemented codes (i.e., the compressible and anelastic versions) was tested on three different computing platforms. The major results are: 1) both versions have speedups of about 99% up to 256 tasks but not for 512 tasks; 2) the anelastic version has better speedup and efficiency because it requires more computations than that of the compressible version; 3) equal or approximately-equal numbers of slices between the x- and y- directions provide the fastest integration due to fewer data exchanges; and 4) one-dimensional slices in the x-direction result in the slowest integration due to the need for more memory relocation for computation.

User's Guide to the Western Root Disease Model, Version 3.0

Treesearch

Susan J. Frankel

1998-01-01

Effects of Armillaria spp., Phellinus weirii, Heterobasidion annosum, or bark beetles on stand dynamics are represented by the Western Root Disease Model,Version 3.0. This model, which operates in conjunction with the Forest Vegetation Simulator, can be used to evaluate the effects of many silvicultural practices. This guide contains instructions for use, detailed...

Field evaluations of a forestry version of DRAINMOD-NII model

Treesearch

S. Tian; M. A. Youssef; R.W. Skaggs; D.M. Amatya; G.M. Chescheir

2010-01-01

This study evaluated the performance of the newly developed forestry version of DRAINMOD-NII model using a long term (21-year) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, U.S.A. The model simulates the main hydrological and biogeochemical processes in drained forested lands. The...

Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model: B (Set Includes, A- User's Guide for Version 3 w/disks, B-Engineering Documentation for Version 3

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer program is a quasi-two-dimensional hydrologic model of water movement across, into, through and out of landfills. The model accepts weather, soil and design data. Landfill systems including various combinations o...

Can we model observed soil carbon changes from a dense inventory? A case study over England and Wales using three versions of the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model (AR5, AR5-PRIM and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Vuichard, N.; Kirk, G. J. D.; Bellamy, P. H.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

A widespread decrease of the topsoil carbon content was observed over England and Wales during the period 1978-2003 in the National Soil Inventory (NSI), amounting to a carbon loss of 4.44 Tg yr-1 over 141 550 km2. Subsequent modelling studies have shown that changes in temperature and precipitation could only account for a small part of the observed decrease, and therefore that changes in land use and management and resulting changes in heterotrophic respiration or net primary productivity were the main causes. So far, all the models used to reproduce the NSI data have not accounted for plant-soil interactions and have only been soil carbon models with carbon inputs forced by data. Here, we use three different versions of a process-based coupled soil-vegetation model called ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), in order to separate the effect of trends in soil carbon input from soil carbon mineralization induced by climate trends over 1978-2003. The first version of the model (ORCHIDEE-AR5), used for IPCC-AR5 CMIP5 Earth System simulations, is based on three soil carbon pools defined with first-order decomposition kinetics, as in the CENTURY model. The second version (ORCHIDEE-AR5-PRIM) built for this study includes a relationship between litter carbon and decomposition rates, to reproduce a priming effect on decomposition. The last version (O-CN) takes into account N-related processes. Soil carbon decomposition in O-CN is based on CENTURY, but adds N limitations on litter decomposition. We performed regional gridded simulations with these three versions of the ORCHIDEE model over England and Wales. None of the three model versions was able to reproduce the observed NSI soil carbon trend. This suggests either that climate change is not the main driver for observed soil carbon losses or that the ORCHIDEE model even with priming or N effects on decomposition lacks the basic mechanisms to explain soil carbon change in response to climate, which would raise a caution flag about the ability of this type of model to project soil carbon changes in response to future warming. A third possible explanation could be that the NSI measurements made on the topsoil are not representative of the total soil carbon losses integrated over the entire soil depth, and thus cannot be compared with the model output.

Can we model observed soil carbon changes from a dense inventory? A case study over england and wales using three version of orchidee ecosystem model (AR5, AR5-PRIM and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Vuichard, N.; Kirk, G. J. D.; Bellamy, P. H.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.

2013-07-01

A widespread decrease of the top soil carbon content was observed over England and Wales during the period 1978-2003 in the National Soil Inventory (NSI), amounting to a carbon loss of 4.44 Tg yr-1 over 141 550 km2. Subsequent modelling studies have shown that changes in temperature and precipitation could only account for a small part of the observed decrease, and therefore that changes in land use and management and resulting changes in soil respiration or primary production were the main causes. So far, all the models used to reproduce the NSI data did not account for plant-soil interactions and were only soil carbon models with carbon inputs forced by data. Here, we use three different versions of a process-based coupled soil-vegetation model called ORCHIDEE, in order to separate the effect of trends in soil carbon input, and soil carbon mineralisation induced by climate trends over 1978-2003. The first version of the model (ORCHIDEE-AR5) used for IPCC-AR5 CMIP5 Earth System simulations, is based on three soil carbon pools defined with first order decomposition kinetics, as in the CENTURY model. The second version (ORCHIDEE-AR5-PRIM) built for this study includes a relationship between litter carbon and decomposition rates, to reproduce a priming effect on decomposition. The last version (O-CN) takes into account N-related processes. Soil carbon decomposition in O-CN is based on CENTURY, but adds N limitations on litter decomposition. We performed regional gridded simulations with these three versions of the ORCHIDEE model over England and Wales. None of the three model versions was able to reproduce the observed NSI soil carbon trend. This suggests that either climate change is not the main driver for observed soil carbon losses, or that the ORCHIDEE model even with priming or N-effects on decomposition lacks the basic mechanisms to explain soil carbon change in response to climate, which would raise a caution flag about the ability of this type of model to project soil carbon changes in response to future warming. A third possible explanation could be that the NSI measurements made on the topsoil are not representative of the total soil carbon losses integrated over the entire soil depth, and thus cannot be compared with the model output.

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In late 2016 or early 2017, CMAQ version 5.2 will be released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important updates from the current CMAQv5.1 modeling system, along with several instrumented versions of the model (e.g. decoupled direct method and sulfur tracking). Some specific model updates include the implementation of a new wind-blown dust treatment in CMAQv5.2, a significant improvement over the treatment in v5.1 which can severely overestimate wind-blown dust under certain conditions. Several other major updates to the modeling system include an update to the calculation of aerosols; implementation of full halogen chemistry (CMAQv5.1 contains a partial implementation of halogen chemistry); the new carbon bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism; updates to cloud model in CMAQ; and a new lightning assimilation scheme for the WRF model which significant improves the placement and timing of convective precipitation in the WRF precipitation fields. Numerous other updates to the modeling system will also be available in v5.2.

ZNF208 polymorphisms associated with ischemic stroke in a southern Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Yu, Jianzhong; Zhou, Feng; Luo, Dong; Wang, Nianzhen; Zhang, Chong; Jin, Tianbo; Liang, Xiongfei; Yu, Dan

2017-01-01

Ischemic stroke is one of the most common diseases with a high burden of neurological deficits, disability and death. Zinc finger protein 208 (ZNF208) was found to be involved in coronary heart disease, although little information is available about its association with ischemic stroke. We performed the present case-control study to clarify the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within ZNF208 and the risk of ischemic stroke in a southern Chinese Han population. A total of 799 subjects (400 cases and 399 healthy controls) were enrolled in the present study. Five SNPs within ZNF208 gene were selected and genotyped using Sequenom MassARRY technology (Sequenom, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA). Data management and statistical analyses were conducted using Sequenom Typer, version 4.0, and a chi-squared test, as well as unconditional logistic regression. Statistical results showed that three variants were associated with the risk of ischemic stroke under allele models (rs2188971, rs2188972, rs8103163 and rs7248488). The variant rs2188972 was also associated with the risk of ischemic stroke in a recessive model after adjustment for age and sex. Haplotype analysis suggested that a significant difference existed between the A rs2188972 T rs2188971 A rs8103163 A rs7248488 haplotype and the risk of ischemic stroke, although this disappeared after adjustment for sex and age. The results obtained in the present study indicate a potential association between ZNF208 variants and the risk of ischemic risk in a southern Chinese Han population. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Subjective Numeracy and the Influence of Order and Amount of Audible Information on Perceived Medication Value

PubMed Central

Fraenkel, Liana; Stolar, Marilyn; Swift, Sarah; Street, Richard L.; Chowdhary, Harjinder; Peters, Ellen

2016-01-01

Background Order and amount of information influence patients’ risk perceptions, but most studies have evaluated patients’ reactions to written materials. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of four communication strategies, varying in their order and/or amount of information, on judgments related to an audible description of a new medication and among patients who varied in subjective numeracy. Methods We created five versions of a hypothetical scenario describing a new medication. The versions were composed to elucidate whether order and/or amount of the information describing benefits and adverse events influenced how subjects valued a new medication. After listening to a randomly assigned version, perceived medication value was measured by asking subjects to choose one of the following statements: the risks outweigh the benefits, the risks and benefits are equally balanced, or the benefits outweigh the risks. Results Of the 432 patients contacted, 389 participated in the study. Listening to a brief description of benefits followed by an extended description of adverse events resulted in a greater likelihood of perceiving that the medication’s benefits outweighed the risks compared to: 1) presenting the extended adverse events description before the benefits, 2) giving a greater amount of information related to benefits, and 3) sandwiching the adverse events between benefits. These associations were only observed among subjects with average or higher subjective numeracy. Conclusion If confirmed in future studies, our results suggest that, for patients with average or better subjective numeracy, perceived medication value is highest when a brief presentation of benefits is followed by an extended description of adverse events. PMID:27216580

Effectiveness of the GoCheck Kids Vision Screener in Detecting Amblyopia Risk Factors.

PubMed

Peterseim, M Millicent W; Rhodes, Ryan S; Patel, Rupa N; Wilson, M Edward; Edmondson, Luke E; Logan, Sarah A; Cheeseman, Edward W; Shortridge, Emily; Trivedi, Rupal H

2018-03-01

The GoCheck Kids smartphone photoscreening app (Gobiquity Mobile Health, Scottsdale, Arizona, USA), introduced in 2014, is marketed to pediatricians with little published validation. We wished to evaluate the GoCheck Kids Screener for accuracy in detecting amblyopia risk factors (ARF) using 2013 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus guidelines. Validity assessment. Children 6 months to 6 years of age presenting from October 2016 to August 2017 were included. Children were screened with the GoCheck preloaded Nokia Lumia 1020, software version 4.6 with image processing version R4d, prior to undergoing a comprehensive eye examination by a pediatric ophthalmologist masked to the screener results. Determination of the presence of age-specific ARF was made based upon the examination and compared with the GoCheck recommendation. A total of 206 children were included (average age 43 months). When compared to examination, GoCheck had a sensitivity of 76.0% and specificity of 67.2% in detecting ARF. Positive predictive value was 57.0% and negative predictive value 83.0%. The screener results of 13 children were changed from "no risk factors" to "risk factors identified" based on the GoCheck remote review process. Four images remained "not gradable" and screening was unsuccessful in 3 children. In our high-risk population, this version of the Gocheck Kids smartphone app was useful in identifying ARF in children who are often not able to cooperate with visual acuity testing. This study informs pediatricians about the efficacy of this new screener as they make decisions about how to best detect vision problems in young children. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the Life Attitude Schedule (LAS-C) in a sample of Taiwanese adolescents.

PubMed

Chang, Hsiu-Ju; Wu, Chiung-Jane; Chen, Tzen Wen; Cheng, Andrew Tai Ann; Lin, Kuan-Chia; Rong, Jiin-Ru; Lee, Hsin-Chien

2011-05-01

Although prior research has proposed that several risk factors are conceptually and positively related to suicidal behavior, researchers have also suggested that suicide may be multifaceted. The Life Attitude Schedule (LAS) measures a broad range of suicide-related behaviors, including life-enhancing and life-threatening behaviors. This study aimed to translate the LAS into Chinese and evaluate the psychometric properties of the new version (LAS-C). A cross-sectional and descriptive design was used. Data were collected from high schools in the city of Taipei in northern Taiwan. A convenience sample of 1492 high school students was recruited from five high schools in Taipei. We used the Multi-Health Systems (MHS) translation policy to guide the translation process. Reliability was evaluated by internal consistency (represented by Cronbach's α coefficients) and test-retest (represented by intraclass correlation). Validity was demonstrated by content, convergent, divergent, concurrent, and contrast group comparison. Confirmatory factor analysis was further used to examine the theoretical model and to support construct validity. The Cronbach's α coefficient for the whole scale of the LAS-C and its subscales ranged from 0.70 to 0.91. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) ranged from 0.76 to 0.89 on the whole scale and its subscales, and were all statistically significant, at least at the p<0.05 level, indicating good stability over a three-week period. Validity was supported by a Content Validity Index (CVI) of 0.99, convergent, divergent, current, and contrast group comparison validity. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the theoretical model, further providing solid evidence of construct validity. The LAS-C has proper psychometric properties. Future studies must be conducted to shorten the items to form a briefer version. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GWM-VI: groundwater management with parallel processing for multiple MODFLOW versions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, Edward R.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2013-01-01

Groundwater Management–Version Independent (GWM–VI) is a new version of the Groundwater Management Process of MODFLOW. The Groundwater Management Process couples groundwater-flow simulation with a capability to optimize stresses on the simulated aquifer based on an objective function and constraints imposed on stresses and aquifer state. GWM–VI extends prior versions of Groundwater Management in two significant ways—(1) it can be used with any version of MODFLOW that meets certain requirements on input and output, and (2) it is structured to allow parallel processing of the repeated runs of the MODFLOW model that are required to solve the optimization problem. GWM–VI uses the same input structure for files that describe the management problem as that used by prior versions of Groundwater Management. GWM–VI requires only minor changes to the input files used by the MODFLOW model. GWM–VI uses the Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability Application Programming Interface (JUPITER-API) to implement both version independence and parallel processing. GWM–VI communicates with the MODFLOW model by manipulating certain input files and interpreting results from the MODFLOW listing file and binary output files. Nearly all capabilities of prior versions of Groundwater Management are available in GWM–VI. GWM–VI has been tested with MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT (a Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005), MF2005-FMP2 (the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005), SEAWAT, and CFP (Conduit Flow Process for MODFLOW-2005). This report provides sample problems that demonstrate a range of applications of GWM–VI and the directory structure and input information required to use the parallel-processing capability.

A revised Thai Multi-Dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support.

PubMed

Wongpakaran, Nahathai; Wongpakaran, Tinakon

2012-11-01

In order to ensure the construct validity of the three-factor model of the Multi-dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and based on the assumption that it helps users differentiate between sources of social support, in this study a revised version was created and tested. The aim was to compare the level of model fit of the original version of the MSPSS against the revised version--which contains a minor change from the original. The study was conducted on 486 medical students who completed the original and revised versions of the MSPSS, as well as the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965) and Beck Depression Inventory II (Beck, Steer, & Brown, 1996). Confirmatory factor analysis was performed to compare the results, showing that the revised version of MSPSS demonstrated a good internal consistency--with a Cronbach's alpha of .92 for the MSPSS questionnaire, and a significant correlation with the other scales, as predicted. The revised version provided better internal consistency, increasing the Cronbach's alpha for the Significant Others sub-scale from 0.86 to 0.92. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed an acceptable model fit: chi2 128.11, df 51, p < .001; TLI 0.94; CFI 0.95; GFI 0.90; PNFI 0.71; AGFI 0.85; RMSEA 0.093 (0.073-0.113) and SRMR 0.042, which is better than the original version. The tendency of the new version was to display a better level of fit with a larger sample size. The limitations of the study are discussed, as well as recommendations for further study.

Mortality and economic instability: detailed analyses for Britain and comparative analyses for selected industrialized countries.

PubMed

Brenner, M H

1983-01-01

This paper discusses a first-stage analysis of the link of unemployment rates, as well as other economic, social and environmental health risk factors, to mortality rates in postwar Britain. The results presented represent part of an international study of the impact of economic change on mortality patterns in industrialized countries. The mortality patterns examined include total and infant mortality and (by cause) cardiovascular (total), cerebrovascular and heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, and suicide, homicide and motor vehicle accidents. Among the most prominent factors that beneficially influence postwar mortality patterns in England/Wales and Scotland are economic growth and stability and health service availability. A principal detrimental factor to health is a high rate of unemployment. Additional factors that have an adverse influence on mortality rates are cigarette consumption and heavy alcohol use and unusually cold winter temperatures (especially in Scotland). The model of mortality that includes both economic changes and behavioral and environmental risk factors was successfully applied to infant mortality rates in the interwar period. In addition, the "simple" economic change model of mortality (using only economic indicators) was applied to other industrialized countries. In Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, the simple version of the economic change model could be successfully applied only if the analysis was begun before World War II; for analysis beginning in the postwar era, the more sophisticated economic change model, including behavioral and environmental risk factors, was required. In France, West Germany, Italy, and Spain, by contrast, some success was achieved using the simple economic change model.

Image based Monte Carlo Modeling for Computational Phantom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Mengyun; Wang, Wen; Zhao, Kai; Fan, Yanchang; Long, Pengcheng; Wu, Yican

2014-06-01

The evaluation on the effects of ionizing radiation and the risk of radiation exposure on human body has been becoming one of the most important issues for radiation protection and radiotherapy fields, which is helpful to avoid unnecessary radiation and decrease harm to human body. In order to accurately evaluate the dose on human body, it is necessary to construct more realistic computational phantom. However, manual description and verfication of the models for Monte carlo(MC)simulation are very tedious, error-prone and time-consuming. In addiation, it is difficult to locate and fix the geometry error, and difficult to describe material information and assign it to cells. MCAM (CAD/Image-based Automatic Modeling Program for Neutronics and Radiation Transport Simulation) was developed as an interface program to achieve both CAD- and image-based automatic modeling by FDS Team (Advanced Nuclear Energy Research Team, http://www.fds.org.cn). The advanced version (Version 6) of MCAM can achieve automatic conversion from CT/segmented sectioned images to computational phantoms such as MCNP models. Imaged-based automatic modeling program(MCAM6.0) has been tested by several medical images and sectioned images. And it has been applied in the construction of Rad-HUMAN. Following manual segmentation and 3D reconstruction, a whole-body computational phantom of Chinese adult female called Rad-HUMAN was created by using MCAM6.0 from sectioned images of a Chinese visible human dataset. Rad-HUMAN contains 46 organs/tissues, which faithfully represented the average anatomical characteristics of the Chinese female. The dose conversion coefficients(Dt/Ka) from kerma free-in-air to absorbed dose of Rad-HUMAN were calculated. Rad-HUMAN can be applied to predict and evaluate dose distributions in the Treatment Plan System (TPS), as well as radiation exposure for human body in radiation protection.

Modeling the structure of the attitudes and belief scale 2 using CFA and bifactor approaches: Toward the development of an abbreviated version.

PubMed

Hyland, Philip; Shevlin, Mark; Adamson, Gary; Boduszek, Daniel

2014-01-01

The Attitudes and Belief Scale-2 (ABS-2: DiGiuseppe, Leaf, Exner, & Robin, 1988. The development of a measure of rational/irrational thinking. Paper presented at the World Congress of Behavior Therapy, Edinburg, Scotland.) is a 72-item self-report measure of evaluative rational and irrational beliefs widely used in Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy research contexts. However, little psychometric evidence exists regarding the measure's underlying factor structure. Furthermore, given the length of the ABS-2 there is a need for an abbreviated version that can be administered when there are time demands on the researcher, such as in clinical settings. This study sought to examine a series of theoretical models hypothesized to represent the latent structure of the ABS-2 within an alternative models framework using traditional confirmatory factor analysis as well as utilizing a bifactor modeling approach. Furthermore, this study also sought to develop a psychometrically sound abbreviated version of the ABS-2. Three hundred and thirteen (N = 313) active emergency service personnel completed the ABS-2. Results indicated that for each model, the application of bifactor modeling procedures improved model fit statistics, and a novel eight-factor intercorrelated solution was identified as the best fitting model of the ABS-2. However, the observed fit indices failed to satisfy commonly accepted standards. A 24-item abbreviated version was thus constructed and an intercorrelated eight-factor solution yielded satisfactory model fit statistics. Current results support the use of a bifactor modeling approach to determining the factor structure of the ABS-2. Furthermore, results provide empirical support for the psychometric properties of the newly developed abbreviated version.

Association between C677T and A1298C polymorphisms of the MTHFR gene and risk of male infertility: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Y; Luo, Y Y; Wu, S; Tang, Y D; Rao, X D; Xiong, L; Tan, M; Deng, M Z; Liu, H

2016-04-26

Published studies on the association between the C677T and A1298C polymorphisms of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene and male infertility risk are controversial. To obtain a more precise evaluation, we performed a meta-analysis based on published case-control studies. We conducted an electronic search of PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Web of Science, and the China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database for papers on MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and male infertility risk. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were used to assess the strength of association in homozygote, heterozygote, dominant, recessive, and additive models. Statistical heterogeneity, test of publication bias, and sensitivity analysis were carried out using the STATA software (Version 13.0). Overall, 21 studies of C677T (4505 cases and 4024 controls) and 13 studies of A1298C (2785 cases and 3094 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. For C677T, the homozygote comparison results were OR = 1.629, 95%CI (1.215- 2.184), and the recessive model results were OR = 1.462 (1.155- 1.850). For A1298C, the homozygote comparison results were OR = 1.289 (1.029-1.616), and the recessive model results were OR = 1.288 (1.034-1.604). In conclusion, the current meta-analysis showed that the MTHFR C677T polymorphism was associated with a significantly increased male infertility risk in the Asian and overall populations, but not in the Caucasian population, and there was a significant association between the A1298C polymorphism and male infertility risk in the Asian, Caucasian, and overall groups.

Estimation and evaluation of management options to control and/or reduce the risk of not complying with commercial sterility.

PubMed

Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Magras, Catherine; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2015-11-20

In a previous study, a modular process risk model, from the raw material reception to the final product storage, was built to estimate the risk of a UHT-aseptic line of not complying with commercial sterility (Pujol et al., 2015). This present study was focused on demonstrating how the model (updated version with uncertainty and variability separated and 2(nd) order Monte Carlo procedure run) could be used to assess quantitatively the influence of management options. This assessment was done in three steps: pinpoint which process step had the highest influence on the risk, identify which management option(s) could be the most effective to control and/or reduce the risk, and finally evaluate quantitatively the influence of changing process setting(s) on the risk. For Bacillus cereus, it was identified that during post-process storage in an aseptic tank, there was potentially an air re-contamination due to filter efficiency loss (efficiency loss due to successive in-place sterilizations after cleaning operations), followed by B. cereus growth. Two options were then evaluated: i) reducing by one fifth of the number of filter sterilizations before renewing the filters, ii) designing new UHT-aseptic lines without an aseptic tank, i.e. without a storage period after the thermal process and before filling. Considering the uncertainty in the model, it was not possible to confirm whether these options had a significant influence on the risk associated with B. cereus. On the other hand, for Geobacillus stearothermophilus, combinations of heat-treatment time and temperature enabling the control or reduction in risk by a factor of ca. 100 were determined; for ease of operational implementation, they were presented graphically in the form of iso-risk curves. For instance, it was established that a heat treatment of 138°C for 31s (instead of 138°C for 25s) enabled a reduction in risk to 18×10(-8) (95% CI=[10; 34]×10(-8)), instead of 578×10(-8) (95% CI=[429; 754]×10(-8)) initially. In conclusion, a modular risk model, as the one exemplified here with a UHT-aseptic line, is a valuable tool in process design and operation, bringing definitive quantitative elements into the decision making process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu, J.; Capilla, J.; Sanchís, E.

1996-04-01

This paper describes a generic decision-support system (DSS) which was originally designed for the planning stage of dicision-making associated with complex river basins. Subsequently, it was expanded to incorporate modules relating to the operational stage of decision-making. Computer-assisted design modules allow any complex water-resource system to be represented in graphical form, giving access to geographically referenced databases and knowledge bases. The modelling capability includes basin simulation and optimization modules, an aquifer flow modelling module and two modules for risk assessment. The Segura and Tagus river basins have been used as case studies in the development and validation phases. The value of this DSS is demonstrated by the fact that both River Basin Agencies currently use a version for the efficient management of their water resources.

Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Fischer, N.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Marotzke, J.; Matei, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Notz, D.; von Storch, J. S.

2013-06-01

MPI-ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea-ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low-resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy-permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large-scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy-permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

Effects of BMI on the risk and frequency of AIS 3+ injuries in motor-vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Leslie, Andrew J; Hoff, Carrie N; Reed, Matthew P; Cunningham, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Determine the effects of BMI on the risk of serious-to-fatal injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3 or AIS 3+) to different body regions for adults in frontal, nearside, farside, and rollover crashes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to a probability sample of adult occupants involved in crashes generated by combining the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS-CDS) with a pseudoweighted version of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. Logistic regression models were applied to weighted data to estimate the change in the number of occupants with AIS 3+ injuries if no occupants were obese. Increasing BMI increased risk of lower-extremity injury in frontal crashes, decreased risk of lower-extremity injury in nearside impacts, increased risk of upper-extremity injury in frontal and nearside crashes, and increased risk of spine injury in frontal crashes. Several of these findings were affected by interactions with gender and vehicle type. If no occupants in frontal crashes were obese, 7% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ upper-extremity injuries, 8% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ lower-extremity injuries, and 28% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ spine injuries. Results of this study have implications on the design and evaluation of vehicle safety systems. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Development of Responder Definitions for Fibromyalgia Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Arnold, Lesley M.; Williams, David A.; Hudson, James I.; Martin, Susan A.; Clauw, Daniel J.; Crofford, Leslie J.; Wang, Fujun; Emir, Birol; Lai, Chinglin; Zablocki, Rong; Mease, Philip J.

2011-01-01

Objective To develop responder definitions for fibromyalgia clinical trials using key symptom and functional domains. Methods 24 candidate responder definitions were developed by expert consensus and evaluated in 12 randomized, placebo-controlled fibromyalgia trials of 4 medications. For each definition, treatment effects of the medication compared with placebo were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test or Chi Square test. A meta-analysis of the pooled results for the 4 medications established risk ratios to determine the definitions that best favored medication over placebo. Results Two definitions performed best in the analyses. Both definitions included ≥ 30% reduction in pain and ≥ 10% improvement in physical function. They differed in that one (FM30 short version) included ≥ 30% improvement in sleep or fatigue, and the other (FM30 long version) required ≥ 30% improvement in 2 of the following symptoms: sleep, fatigue, depression, anxiety, or cognition. In the analysis of both versions, the response rate was ≥ 15% for each medication and significantly greater than placebo. The risk ratio favoring drug over placebo (95% CI) in the pooled analysis for the FM30 short version was 1.50 (1.24, 1.82), P ≤ 0.0001; the FM30 long version was 1.60 (1.31, 1.96), P ≤ 0.00001. Conclusion Among the 24 responder definitions tested, 2 were identified as most sensitive in identifying response to treatment. The identification of responder definitions for fibromyalgia clinical trials that include assessments of key symptom and functional domains may improve the sensitivity of clinical trials to identify meaningful improvements, leading to improved management of fibromyalgia. PMID:21953205

DFN Modeling for the Safety Case of the Final Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Olkiluoto, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanhanarkaus, O.

2017-12-01

Olkiluoto Island is a site in SW Finland chosen to host a deep geological repository for high-level nuclear waste generated by nuclear power plants of power companies TVO and Fortum. Posiva, a nuclear waste management organization, submitted a construction license application for the Olkiluoto repository to the Finnish government in 2012. A key component of the license application was an integrated geological, hydrological and biological description of the Olkiluoto site. After the safety case was reviewed in 2015 by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority in Finland, Posiva was granted a construction license. Posiva is now preparing an updated safety case for the operating license application to be submitted in 2022, and an update of the discrete fracture network (DFN) model used for site characterization is part of that. The first step describing and modelling the network of fractures in the Olkiluoto bedrock was DFN model version 1 (2009), which presented an initial understanding of the relationships between rock fracturing and geology at the site and identified the important primary controls on fracturing. DFN model version 2 (2012) utilized new subsurface data from additional drillholes, tunnels and excavated underground facilities in ONKALO to better understand spatial variability of the geological controls on geological and hydrogeological fracture properties. DFN version 2 connected fracture geometric and hydraulic properties to distinct tectonic domains and to larger-scale hydraulically conductive fault zones. In the version 2 DFN model, geological and hydrogeological models were developed along separate parallel tracks. The version 3 (2017) DFN model for the Olkiluoto site integrates geological and hydrogeological elements into a single consistent model used for geological, rock mechanical, hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical studies. New elements in the version 3 DFN model include a stochastic description of fractures within Brittle Fault Zones (BFZ), integration of geological and hydrostructural interpretations of BFZ, greater use of 3D geological models to better constrain the spatial variability of fracturing and fractures using hydromechanical principles to account for material behavior and in-situ stresses.

Labour Outcomes After Successful External Cephalic Version Compared With Spontaneous Cephalic Version.

PubMed

Krueger, Samantha; Simioni, Julia; Griffith, Lauren E; Hutton, Eileen K

2018-01-01

This study sought to compare obstetrical outcomes for women with a cephalic presentation at birth resulting from successful external cephalic version (ECV) compared to those resulting from spontaneous cephalic version (SCV). Secondary analysis was performed on Early External Cephalic Version Trial data. A total of 931 study participants had breech presentations between 34 and 36 weeks' gestation and cephalic presentations at birth. The incidence of intrapartum interventions was compared between patients with successful ECV (557) and those with SCV (374). A generalized linear mixed model was used to determine ORs for our primary outcomes. Parity, maternal BMI, previous CS, and enrolment centre were controlled for in the analysis. No differences were found after ECV compared with SCV in the incidence of CS (96 of 557 and 76 of 374, respectively; adjusted OR [aOR] 0.89; 95% CI 0.63-1.26), instrumental birth (68 of 557 and 29 of 373, respectively; aOR 1.55; 95% CI 0.96-2.50), or normal vaginal birth (393 of 557 and 268 of 373, respectively; aOR 0.92; 95% CI 0.68-1.24). Multiparous women with successful ECV were half as likely to require a CS compared with those with SCV and no ECV (28 of 313 and 42 of 258, respectively; aOR 0.45; 95% CI 0.26-0.80). This is the first study to compare birth outcomes of breech pregnancies that convert to cephalic presentation by means of SCV with birth outcomes of breech pregnancies that have ECV. Women with a cephalic-presenting fetus at birth as a result of successful ECV are not at greater risk of obstetrical interventions at birth when compared with women with fetuses who spontaneously turn to a cephalic presentation in the third trimester. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessment of acquired capability for suicide in clinical practice.

PubMed

Rimkeviciene, Jurgita; Hawgood, Jacinta; O'Gorman, John; De Leo, Diego

2016-12-01

The Interpersonal Psychological Theory of suicide proposes that the interaction between Thwarted Belongingness, Perceived Burdensomeness, and Acquired Capability for Suicide (ACS) predicts proximal risk of death by suicide. Instruments to assess all three constructs are available. However, research on the validity of one of them, the acquired capability for suicide scale (ACSS), has been limited, especially in terms of its clinical relevance. This study aimed to explore the utility of the different versions of the ACSS in clinical assessment. Three versions of the scale were investigated, the full 20-item version, a 7-item version and a single item version representing self-perceived capability for suicide. In a sample of patients recruited from a clinic specialising in the treatment of suicidality and in a community sample, all versions of the ACSS were found to show reasonable levels of reliability and to correlate as expected with reports of suicidal ideation, self-harm, and attempted suicide. The item assessing self-perceived acquired capacity for suicide showed highest correlations with all levels of suicidal behaviour. However, no version of the ACSS on its own showed a capacity to indicate suicide attempts in the combined sample. It is concluded that the versions of the scale have construct validity, but their clinical utility is limited. An assessment using a single item on self-perceived ACS outperforms the full and shortened versions of ACSS in clinical settings and can be recommended with caution for clinicians interested in assessing this characteristic.

Affective temperaments and suicidal ideation and behavior in mood and anxiety disorder patients.

PubMed

Baldessarini, Ross J; Vázquez, Gustavo H; Tondo, Leonardo

2016-07-01

Clinical characteristics proposed to be associated with suicidal risk include affective temperament types. We tested this proposal with two methods in a large sample of subjects with mood and anxiety disorders. We assessed consecutive, consenting subjects clinically for affective temperament types and by TEMPS-A self-ratings for associations of temperament with suicidal ideation and acts, using standard bivariate methods, and multivariate logistic regression models. Among 2561 subjects (major depressive, 1171; bipolar, 919, anxiety disorders, 471), temperament-types and TEMPS-A (39-item Italian version) subscale scores differed by risk of suicidal acts or ideation. Suicidal acts and ideation were most associated with cyclothymic and dysthymic, and less with hyperthymic temperaments. These associations were sustained by multivariate modeling that included diagnosis, age, sex, and diagnosis. Not all subjects completed TEMPS-A self-ratings; clinical assessments of temperaments were not standardized, and long-term stability of temperament assessments was not tested. The findings support and extend associations of cyclothymic-dysthymic temperaments with suicidal acts and ideation, whereas hyperthymic temperament may be protective. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Verplank, Lynda; Bettge, Thomas W.

1994-05-01

We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50 75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.

Absorption models for low-frequency variability in compact radio sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marscher, A. P.

1979-01-01

The consequences of the most plausible version of the absorption model for low-frequency variability in compact extragalactic radio sources are considered. The general restrictions placed on such a model are determined, and observational tests are suggested that can be used either to support the model or to discriminate among its various versions. It is shown that low-frequency variability in compact radio sources can be successfully explained by a class of models in which the flux is modulated by changes in free-free optical depth within an intervening ionized medium. Two versions of such a model are distinguished, one involving large changes in optical depth and the other, small changes. It is noted that while absorption effects are capable of causing rapid flux and structural variations at centimetric wavelengths, the models predict detailed behavior that is in direct conflict with observational data.

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

BAYESIAN META-ANALYSIS ON MEDICAL DEVICES: APPLICATION TO IMPLANTABLE CARDIOVERTER DEFIBRILLATORS

PubMed Central

Youn, Ji-Hee; Lord, Joanne; Hemming, Karla; Girling, Alan; Buxton, Martin

2012-01-01

Objectives: The aim of this study is to describe and illustrate a method to obtain early estimates of the effectiveness of a new version of a medical device. Methods: In the absence of empirical data, expert opinion may be elicited on the expected difference between the conventional and modified devices. Bayesian Mixed Treatment Comparison (MTC) meta-analysis can then be used to combine this expert opinion with existing trial data on earlier versions of the device. We illustrate this approach for a new four-pole implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) compared with conventional ICDs, Class III anti-arrhythmic drugs, and conventional drug therapy for the prevention of sudden cardiac death in high risk patients. Existing RCTs were identified from a published systematic review, and we elicited opinion on the difference between four-pole and conventional ICDs from experts recruited at a cardiology conference. Results: Twelve randomized controlled trials were identified. Seven experts provided valid probability distributions for the new ICDs compared with current devices. The MTC model resulted in estimated relative risks of mortality of 0.74 (0.60–0.89) (predictive relative risk [RR] = 0.77 [0.41–1.26]) and 0.83 (0.70–0.97) (predictive RR = 0.84 [0.55–1.22]) with the new ICD therapy compared to Class III anti-arrhythmic drug therapy and conventional drug therapy, respectively. These results showed negligible differences from the preliminary results for the existing ICDs. Conclusions: The proposed method incorporating expert opinion to adjust for a modification made to an existing device may play a useful role in assisting decision makers to make early informed judgments on the effectiveness of frequently modified healthcare technologies. PMID:22559753

Why Do Some Men Misperceive Women’s Sexual Intentions More Frequently Than Others Do? An Application of the Confluence Model

PubMed Central

Jacques-Tiura, Angela J.; Abbey, Antonia; Parkhill, Michele R.; Zawacki, Tina

2015-01-01

Although many researchers have documented men’s tendency to misperceive women’s friendliness as a sign of sexual interest, few have examined individual differences in men’s attitudes and past experiences that might predict their likelihood of making these types of misjudgments. We applied an expanded version of Malamuth, Sockloskie, Koss, and Tanaka’s (1991) Confluence model to predict frequency of misperception of women’s sexual intent with a sample of 356 male college students. Using structural equation modeling, hostile masculinity, impersonal sex, and drinking in dating and sexual situations predicted men’s frequency of misperception. Furthermore, the more risk factors men possessed, the more times they misperceived women’s sexual intentions. Suggestions are made for theory development and future research incorporating situational as well as personality measures in longitudinal studies. PMID:17933743

Prostate Cancer Prevention (PDQ®)—Patient Version

Cancer.gov

Prostate cancer prevention approaches include avoiding risk factors when possible, increasing protective factors, and chemoprevention. Learn more about prostate cancer prevention in this expert-reviewed summary.