Infection, Alveolar Osteitis, and Adverse Effects Using Metronidazole in Healthy Patients Undergoing Third Molar Surgery: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Isiordia-Espinoza, Mario Alberto; Aragon-Martinez, Othoniel H; Bollogna-Molina, Ronell E; Alonso-Castro, Ángel J

2018-06-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the risk of surgical infection, alveolar osteitis, and adverse effects using systemic metronidazole in comparison with placebo in healthy patients undergoing third molar surgery. The eligible reports were identified from diverse science sources. Clinical trials meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria and an acceptable Oxford Quality Score were included in this study. The evaluation of risk was done using the Risk Reduction Calculator and Review Manager 5.3., from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk reduction was assumed when the upper limit of the 95% confidence intervals was <1 and the lower limit did not cross zero (negative number) alongside a p value of <0.05 for the overall test. Data of 667 patients from five clinical trials were used for the assessment of risk. Our analysis showed no reduction of the risk of infection or dry socket in patients receiving metronidazole compared to whom took placebo. Meanwhile, the adverse effects did not exhibit a difference between the studied groups. The routine use of systemic metronidazole to prevent surgical site infection and/or dry socket in healthy patients undergoing third molar surgery is not recommended.

A comparative study of European insurance schemes for extreme weather risks and incentives for risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Hudson, Paul; de Ruig, Lars; Kuik, Onno; Botzen, Wouter

2017-04-01

This paper provides an analysis of the insurance schemes that cover extreme weather events in twelve different EU countries and the risk reduction incentives offered by these schemes. Economic impacts of extreme weather events in many regions in Europe and elsewhere are on the rise due to climate change and increasing exposure as driven by urban development. In an attempt to manage impacts from extreme weather events, natural disaster insurance schemes can provide incentives for taking measures that limit weather-related risks. Insurance companies can influence public risk management policies and risk-reducing behaviour of policyholders by "rewarding behaviour that reduces risks and potential damages" (Botzen and Van den Bergh, 2008, p. 417). Examples of insurance market systems that directly or indirectly aim to incentivize risk reduction with varying degrees of success are: the U.S. National Flood Insurance Programme; the French Catastrophes Naturelles system; and the U.K. Flood Re program which requires certain levels of protection standards for properties to be insurable. In our analysis, we distinguish between four different disaster types (i.e. coastal and fluvial floods, droughts and storms) and three different sectors (i.e. residential, commercial and agriculture). The selected case studies also provide a wide coverage of different insurance market structures, including public, private and public-private insurance provision, and different methods of coping with extreme loss events, such as re-insurance, governmental aid and catastrophe bonds. The analysis of existing mechanisms for risk reduction incentives provides recommendations about incentivizing adaptive behaviour, in order to assist policy makers and other stakeholders in designing more effective insurance schemes for extreme weather risks.

A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

2005-01-01

Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

Blood Pressure Reduction and Secondary Stroke Prevention: A Systematic Review and Metaregression Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Katsanos, Aristeidis H; Filippatou, Angeliki; Manios, Efstathios; Deftereos, Spyridon; Parissis, John; Frogoudaki, Alexandra; Vrettou, Agathi-Rosa; Ikonomidis, Ignatios; Pikilidou, Maria; Kargiotis, Odysseas; Voumvourakis, Konstantinos; Alexandrov, Anne W; Alexandrov, Andrei V; Tsivgoulis, Georgios

2017-01-01

Current recommendations do not specifically address the optimal blood pressure (BP) reduction for secondary stroke prevention in patients with previous cerebrovascular events. We conducted a systematic review and metaregression analysis on the association of BP reduction with recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events using data from randomized controlled clinical trials of secondary stroke prevention. For all reported events during each eligible study period, we calculated the corresponding risk ratios to express the comparison of event occurrence risk between patients randomized to antihypertensive treatment and those randomized to placebo. On the basis of the reported BP values, we performed univariate metaregression analyses according to the achieved BP values under the random-effects model (Method of Moments) for those adverse events reported in ≥10 total subgroups of included randomized controlled clinical trials. In pairwise meta-analyses, antihypertensive treatment lowered the risk for recurrent stroke (risk ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.87; P<0.001), disabling or fatal stroke (risk ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-0.85; P<0.001), and cardiovascular death (risk ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.96; P=0.01). In metaregression analyses, systolic BP reduction was linearly related to the lower risk of recurrent stroke (P=0.049), myocardial infarction (P=0.024), death from any cause (P=0.001), and cardiovascular death (P<0.001). Similarly, diastolic BP reduction was linearly related to a lower risk of recurrent stroke (P=0.026) and all-cause mortality (P=0.009). Funnel plot inspection and Egger statistical test revealed no evidence of publication bias. The extent of BP reduction is linearly associated with the magnitude of risk reduction in recurrent cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. Strict and aggressive BP control seems to be essential for effective secondary stroke prevention. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk factors of chronic periodontitis on healing response: a multilevel modelling analysis.

PubMed

Song, J; Zhao, H; Pan, C; Li, C; Liu, J; Pan, Y

2017-09-15

Chronic periodontitis is a multifactorial polygenetic disease with an increasing number of associated factors that have been identified over recent decades. Longitudinal epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that the risk factors were related to the progression of the disease. A traditional multivariate regression model was used to find risk factors associated with chronic periodontitis. However, the approach requirement of standard statistical procedures demands individual independence. Multilevel modelling (MLM) data analysis has widely been used in recent years, regarding thorough hierarchical structuring of the data, decomposing the error terms into different levels, and providing a new analytic method and framework for solving this problem. The purpose of our study is to investigate the relationship of clinical periodontal index and the risk factors in chronic periodontitis through MLM analysis and to identify high-risk individuals in the clinical setting. Fifty-four patients with moderate to severe periodontitis were included. They were treated by means of non-surgical periodontal therapy, and then made follow-up visits regularly at 3, 6, and 12 months after therapy. Each patient answered a questionnaire survey and underwent measurement of clinical periodontal parameters. Compared with baseline, probing depth (PD) and clinical attachment loss (CAL) improved significantly after non-surgical periodontal therapy with regular follow-up visits at 3, 6, and 12 months after therapy. The null model and variance component models with no independent variables included were initially obtained to investigate the variance of the PD and CAL reductions across all three levels, and they showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.001), thus establishing that MLM data analysis was necessary. Site-level had effects on PD and CAL reduction; those variables could explain 77-78% of PD reduction and 70-80% of CAL reduction at 3, 6, and 12 months. Other levels only explain 20-30% of PD and CAL reductions. Site-level had the greatest effect on PD and CAL reduction. Non-surgical periodontal therapy with regular follow-up visits had a remarkable curative effect. All three levels had a substantial influence on the reduction of PD and CAL. Site-level had the largest effect on PD and CAL reductions.

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

Probiotic Supplementation in Preterm Infants Does Not Affect the Risk of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Mosca, Fabio; Kramer, Boris

2017-01-01

Probiotic supplementation reduces the risk of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and late-onset sepsis (LOS) in preterm infants, but it remains to be determined whether this reduction translates into a reduction of other complications. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the possible role of probiotics in altering the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Fifteen randomized controlled trials (4782 infants; probiotics: 2406) were included. None of the included studies assessed BPD as the primary outcome. Meta-analysis confirmed a significant reduction of NEC (risk ratio (RR) 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.81, p = 0.004; random effects model), and an almost significant reduction of LOS (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.03, p = 0.084). In contrast, meta-analysis could not demonstrate a significant effect of probiotics on BPD, defined either as oxygen dependency at 28 days of life (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.11, p = 0.900, 6 studies) or at 36 weeks of postmenstrual age (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.20, p = 0.203, 12 studies). Meta-regression did not show any significant association between the RR for NEC or LOS and the RR for BPD. In conclusion, our results suggest that NEC and LOS prevention by probiotics does not affect the risk of developing BPD in preterm infants. PMID:29088103

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs.

PubMed

Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M

2002-03-01

To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

Alendronate for fracture prevention in postmenopause.

PubMed

Holder, Kathryn K; Kerley, Sara Shelton

2008-09-01

Osteoporosis is an abnormal reduction in bone mass and bone deterioration leading to increased fracture risk. Alendronate (Fosamax) belongs to the bisphosphonate class of drugs, which act to inhibit bone resorption by interfering with the activity of osteoclasts. To assess the effectiveness of alendronate in the primary and secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women. The authors searched Central, Medline, and EMBASE for relevant randomized controlled trials published from 1966 to 2007. The authors undertook study selection and data abstraction in duplicate. The authors performed meta-analysis of fracture outcomes using relative risks, and a relative change greater than 15 percent was considered clinically important. The authors assessed study quality through reporting of allocation concealment, blinding, and withdrawals. Eleven trials representing 12,068 women were included in the review. Relative and absolute risk reductions for the 10-mg dose were as follows. For vertebral fractures, a 45 percent relative risk reduction was found (relative risk [RR] = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.67). This was significant for primary prevention, with a 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.80) and 2 percent absolute risk reduction; and for secondary prevention, with 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.69) and 6 percent absolute risk reduction. For nonvertebral fractures, a 16 percent relative risk reduction was found (RR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.94). This was significant for secondary prevention, with a 23 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.92) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction, but not for primary prevention (RR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.04). There was a 40 percent relative risk reduction in hip fractures (RR = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.92), but only secondary prevention was significant, with a 53 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.85) and a 1 percent absolute risk reduction. The only significance found for wrist fractures was in secondary prevention, with a 50 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.73) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction. For adverse events, the authors found no statistically significant difference in any included study. However, observational data raise concerns about potential risk for upper gastrointestinal injury and, less commonly, osteonecrosis of the jaw. At 10 mg of alendronate per day, clinically important and statistically significant reductions in vertebral, nonvertebral, hip, and wrist fractures were observed for secondary prevention. The authors found no statistically significant results for primary prevention, with the exception of vertebral fractures, for which the reduction was clinically important.

Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

PubMed

Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

2017-03-01

When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-analysis of More Than 1.9 Million Individuals From 38 Observational Studies.

PubMed

Knott, Craig; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

2015-09-01

Observational studies indicate that moderate levels of alcohol consumption may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes. In addition to providing an updated summary of the existing literature, this meta-analysis explored whether reductions in risk may be the product of misclassification bias. A systematic search was undertaken, identifying studies that reported a temporal association between alcohol consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes. No restrictions were placed upon the language or date of publication. Non-English publications were, where necessary, translated using online translation tools. Models were constructed using fractional polynomial regression to determine the best-fitting dose-response relationship between alcohol intake and type 2 diabetes, with a priori testing of sex and referent group interactions. Thirty-eight studies met the selection criteria, representing 1,902,605 participants and 125,926 cases of type 2 diabetes. A conventional noncurrent drinking category was reported by 33 studies, while five reported a never-drinking category. Relative to combined abstainers, reductions in the risk of type 2 diabetes were present at all levels of alcohol intake <63 g/day, with risks increasing above this threshold. Peak risk reduction was present between 10-14 g/day at an 18% decrease in hazards. Stratification of available data revealed that reductions in risk may be specific to women only and absent in studies that adopted a never-drinking abstention category or sampled an Asian population region. Reductions in risk among moderate alcohol drinkers may be confined to women and non-Asian populations. Although based on a minority of studies, there is also the possibility that reductions in risk may have been overestimated by studies using a referent group contaminated by less healthy former drinkers. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled.

PubMed

Wenzel, Tom

2013-10-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can reduce mass as a strategy to increase their vehicles' fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without necessarily compromising societal safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

2008-04-01

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

PubMed

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Paediatric x-ray radiation dose reduction and image quality analysis.

PubMed

Martin, L; Ruddlesden, R; Makepeace, C; Robinson, L; Mistry, T; Starritt, H

2013-09-01

Collaboration of multiple staff groups has resulted in significant reduction in the risk of radiation-induced cancer from radiographic x-ray exposure during childhood. In this study at an acute NHS hospital trust, a preliminary audit identified initial exposure factors. These were compared with European and UK guidance, leading to the introduction of new factors that were in compliance with European guidance on x-ray tube potentials. Image quality was assessed using standard anatomical criteria scoring, and visual grading characteristics analysis assessed the impact on image quality of changes in exposure factors. This analysis determined the acceptability of gradual radiation dose reduction below the European and UK guidance levels. Chest and pelvis exposures were optimised, achieving dose reduction for each age group, with 7%-55% decrease in critical organ dose. Clinicians confirmed diagnostic image quality throughout the iterative process. Analysis of images acquired with preliminary and final exposure factors indicated an average visual grading analysis result of 0.5, demonstrating equivalent image quality. The optimisation process and final radiation doses are reported for Carestream computed radiography to aid other hospitals in minimising radiation risks to children.

The Tous Dam Disaster of 1982: Risk communication and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra-Llobet, A.; Tàbara, J.; Sauri, D.

2012-12-01

The failure of Tous dam on the Júcar River near Valencia in 1982 was one of the most important socio-natural disasters in 20th century Spain. The death toll of 25 would have been much greater had not a local dam manager anticipated the failure and alerted mayors of a failure, before it actually occurred. The Tous Dam failure occurred a week before the first democratic elections in Spain after the Franco dictatorship, it received extensive coverage in the media. As a result, this disaster triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed at multiple levels of government in Spain. Many factors, often of a qualitative and organisational nature, affect (vertical and horizontal) communication in disaster risk reduction learning and planning at the community level. Through interviews with key actors and stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, review of historical and media accounts, and analysis of legislation and regulation, we documented changes that resulted from the Tous Dam failure: (1) A process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organisations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. (2) Actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain.We identify three main stages from 1980s to present in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area, which show a progressive shift towards a more integrated and preventative approach: (1) After the collapse of the Tous Dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives (e.g. the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction), which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Flood Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures and integrates, for the first time, ecological concerns and climate change adaptation in flood management strategies.

Use of a systematic risk analysis method to improve safety in the production of paediatric parenteral nutrition solutions

PubMed Central

Bonnabry, P; Cingria, L; Sadeghipour, F; Ing, H; Fonzo-Christe, C; Pfister, R

2005-01-01

Background: Until recently, the preparation of paediatric parenteral nutrition formulations in our institution included re-transcription and manual compounding of the mixture. Although no significant clinical problems have occurred, re-engineering of this high risk activity was undertaken to improve its safety. Several changes have been implemented including new prescription software, direct recording on a server, automatic printing of the labels, and creation of a file used to pilot a BAXA MM 12 automatic compounder. The objectives of this study were to compare the risks associated with the old and new processes, to quantify the improved safety with the new process, and to identify the major residual risks. Methods: A failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) was performed by a multidisciplinary team. A cause-effect diagram was built, the failure modes were defined, and the criticality index (CI) was determined for each of them on the basis of the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of the potential effect, and the detection probability. The CIs for each failure mode were compared for the old and new processes and the risk reduction was quantified. Results: The sum of the CIs of all 18 identified failure modes was 3415 for the old process and 1397 for the new (reduction of 59%). The new process reduced the CIs of the different failure modes by a mean factor of 7. The CI was smaller with the new process for 15 failure modes, unchanged for two, and slightly increased for one. The greatest reduction (by a factor of 36) concerned re-transcription errors, followed by readability problems (by a factor of 30) and chemical cross contamination (by a factor of 10). The most critical steps in the new process were labelling mistakes (CI 315, maximum 810), failure to detect a dosage or product mistake (CI 288), failure to detect a typing error during the prescription (CI 175), and microbial contamination (CI 126). Conclusions: Modification of the process resulted in a significant risk reduction as shown by risk analysis. Residual failure opportunities were also quantified, allowing additional actions to be taken to reduce the risk of labelling mistakes. This study illustrates the usefulness of prospective risk analysis methods in healthcare processes. More systematic use of risk analysis is needed to guide continuous safety improvement of high risk activities. PMID:15805453

Use of a systematic risk analysis method to improve safety in the production of paediatric parenteral nutrition solutions.

PubMed

Bonnabry, P; Cingria, L; Sadeghipour, F; Ing, H; Fonzo-Christe, C; Pfister, R E

2005-04-01

Until recently, the preparation of paediatric parenteral nutrition formulations in our institution included re-transcription and manual compounding of the mixture. Although no significant clinical problems have occurred, re-engineering of this high risk activity was undertaken to improve its safety. Several changes have been implemented including new prescription software, direct recording on a server, automatic printing of the labels, and creation of a file used to pilot a BAXA MM 12 automatic compounder. The objectives of this study were to compare the risks associated with the old and new processes, to quantify the improved safety with the new process, and to identify the major residual risks. A failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) was performed by a multidisciplinary team. A cause-effect diagram was built, the failure modes were defined, and the criticality index (CI) was determined for each of them on the basis of the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of the potential effect, and the detection probability. The CIs for each failure mode were compared for the old and new processes and the risk reduction was quantified. The sum of the CIs of all 18 identified failure modes was 3415 for the old process and 1397 for the new (reduction of 59%). The new process reduced the CIs of the different failure modes by a mean factor of 7. The CI was smaller with the new process for 15 failure modes, unchanged for two, and slightly increased for one. The greatest reduction (by a factor of 36) concerned re-transcription errors, followed by readability problems (by a factor of 30) and chemical cross contamination (by a factor of 10). The most critical steps in the new process were labelling mistakes (CI 315, maximum 810), failure to detect a dosage or product mistake (CI 288), failure to detect a typing error during the prescription (CI 175), and microbial contamination (CI 126). Modification of the process resulted in a significant risk reduction as shown by risk analysis. Residual failure opportunities were also quantified, allowing additional actions to be taken to reduce the risk of labelling mistakes. This study illustrates the usefulness of prospective risk analysis methods in healthcare processes. More systematic use of risk analysis is needed to guide continuous safety improvement of high risk activities.

Identifying mismatches between institutional perceptions of water-related risk drivers and water management strategies in three river basin areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juhola, Sirkku; Monge Monge, Adrián; Käkönen, Mira; Kanninen, Markku; Nygren, Anja

2017-07-01

Water-related risks and vulnerabilities are driven by variety of stressors, including climate and land use change, as well as changes in socio-economic positions and political landscapes. Hence, water governance, which addresses risks and vulnerabilities, should target multiple stressors. We analyze the institutional perceptions of the drivers and strategies for managing water-related risks and vulnerabilities in three regionally important river basin areas located in Finland, Mexico, and Laos. Our analysis is based on data gathered through participatory workshops and complemented by qualitative content analysis of relevant policy documents. The identified drivers and proposed risk reduction strategies showed the multidimensionality and context-specificity of water-related risks and vulnerabilities across study areas. Most of the identified drivers were seen to increase risks, but some of the drivers were positive trends, and drivers also included also policy instruments that can both increase or decrease risks. Nevertheless, all perceived drivers were not addressed with suggested risk reduction strategies. In particular, most of the risk reduction strategies were incremental adjustments, although many of the drivers classified as most important were large-scale trends, such as climate change, land use changes and increase in foreign investments. We argue that there is a scale mismatch between the identified drivers and suggested strategies, which questions the opportunity to manage the drivers by single-scale incremental adjustments. Our study suggests that for more sustainable risk and vulnerability reduction, the root causes of water-related risks and vulnerabilities should be addressed through adaptive multi-scale governance that carefully considers the context-specificity and the multidimensionality of the associated drivers and stressors.

Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.

PubMed

Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei

2013-08-15

This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Systems resilience for multihazard environments: definition, metrics, and valuation for decision making.

PubMed

Ayyub, Bilal M

2014-02-01

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision-making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision-making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit-cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction and Self-Defense Program: A Prospective Analysis of a Revised Protocol

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly

2008-01-01

The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…

A COMPARATIVE RISK REDUCTION ANALYSIS OF THE OFFICE OF SOLID WASTE'S WASTE MINIMIZATION PRIORITY CHEMICALS INITIATIVE USING THE 3MRA MULTIMEDIA MODELING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

A study was initiated by the EPA/ORD National Exposure Research Lab (NERL) in FY05 to quantify risk reduction resulting from this national EPA initiative to reduce WMPC disposal. Using the 3MRA modeling system, which was recommended for use by the EPA Science Advisory Board for ...

Mediation Analysis of the Efficacy of the Eban HIV/STD Risk-Reduction Intervention for African American HIV Serodiscordant Couples.

PubMed

El-Bassel, Nabila; Jemmott, John B; Bellamy, Scarlett L; Pequegnat, Willo; Wingood, Gina M; Wyatt, Gail E; Landis, J Richard; Remien, Robert H

2016-06-01

Targeting couples is a promising behavioral HIV risk-reduction strategy, but the mechanisms underlying the effects of such interventions are unknown. We report secondary analyses testing whether Social-Cognitive-Theory variables mediated the Eban HIV-risk-reduction intervention's effects on condom-use outcomes. In a multisite randomized controlled trial conducted in four US cities, 535 African American HIV-serodiscordant couples were randomized to the Eban HIV risk-reduction intervention or attention-matched control intervention. Outcomes were proportion condom-protected sex, consistent condom use, and frequency of unprotected sex measured pre-, immediately post-, and 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Potential mediators included Social-Cognitive-Theory variables: outcome expectancies and self-efficacy. Mediation analyses using the product-of-coefficients approach in a generalized-estimating-equations framework revealed that condom-use outcome expectancy, partner-reaction outcome expectancy, intention, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication improved post-intervention and mediated intervention-induced improvements in condom-use outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of targeting outcome expectancies, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication in couples-level HIV risk-reduction interventions.

Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

2014-10-01

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Exposure Perception as a Key Indicator of Risk Perception and Acceptance of Sources of Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields.

PubMed

Freudenstein, Frederik; Wiedemann, Peter M; Brown, Tim W C

2015-01-01

The presented survey was conducted in six European countries as an online study. A total of 2454 subjects participated. Two main research questions were investigated: firstly, how does the cognitive, moral, and affective framing of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) exposure perception influence RF EMF risk perception? Secondly, can the deployment of mobile phone base stations have greater acceptance with RF EMF exposure reduction? The findings with respect to the first question clearly indicated that the cognitive framed exposure perception is the main determinant of RF EMF risk perception. The concomitant sensitivity to exposure strength offers an opportunity to improve the acceptance of base stations by exposure reduction. A linear regression analysis supported this assumption: in a fictional test situation, exposure reduction improved the acceptance of base stations, operationalized as the requested distance of the base station from one's own home. Furthermore, subjects with high RF EMF risk perception were most sensitive to exposure reduction. On average, a 70% exposure reduction reduced the requested distance from about 2000 meters to 1000 meters. The consequences for risk communication are discussed.

Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom P.

This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses inmore » these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.« less

Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

2017-06-01

This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Risk of wound infection and safety profile of amoxicillin in healthy patients which required third molar surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Isiordia-Espinoza, M A; Aragon-Martinez, O H; Martínez-Morales, J F; Zapata-Morales, J R

2015-11-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the risk of surgical wound infection and the adverse effects of amoxicillin in healthy patients who required excision of third molars. We identified eligible reports from searches of PubMed, Medline®, the Cochrane Library, Imbiomed, LILACS, and Google Scholar. Studies that met our minimum requirements were evaluated using inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Oxford Quality Scale. Those with a score of 3 or more on this Scale were included and their data were extracted and analysed. For evaluation of the risk of infection the absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, and 95% CI were calculated. For evaluation of the risk of an adverse effect the absolute risk increase, number needed to harm, and 95% CI were calculated using the Risk Reduction Calculator. Each meta-analysis was made with the help of the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model, and estimates of risk (OR) and 95% CI were calculated using the Review Manager 5.3, from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk was assumed when the lower limit of the 95% CI was greater than 1. Probabilities of less than 0.05 were accepted as significant. The results showed that there was no reduction in the risk of infection when amoxicillin was given before or after operation compared with an untreated group or placebo. In conclusion, this study suggests that amoxicillin given prophylactically or postoperatively does not reduce the risk of infection in healthy patients having their third molars extracted. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV RISK REDUCTION INTERVENTIONS AMONG SUBSTANCE-ABUSING REPRODUCTIVE-AGE WOMEN: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

PubMed Central

Weissman, Jessica; Kanamori, Mariano; Dévieux, Jessy G.; Trepka, Mary Jo; De La Rosa, Mario

2017-01-01

HIV/AIDS is one of the leading causes of death among reproductive-age women throughout the world, and substance abuse plays a major role in HIV infection. We conducted a systematic review, in accordance with the 2015 Preferred Items for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis tool, to assess HIV risk-reduction intervention studies among reproductive-age women who abuse substances. We initially identified 6,506 articles during our search and, after screening titles and abstracts, examining articles in greater detail, and finally excluding those rated methodologically weak, a total of 10 studies were included in this review. Studies that incorporated behavioral skills training into the intervention and were based on theoretical model(s) were the most effective in general at decreasing sex and drug risk behaviors. Additional HIV risk-reduction intervention research with improved methodological designs is warranted to determine the most efficacious HIV risk-reduction intervention for reproductive-age women who abuse substances. PMID:28467160

Effect of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Lowering by Ezetimibe/Simvastatin on Outcome Incidence: Overview, Meta-Analyses, and Meta-Regression Analyses of Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Thomopoulos, Costas; Skalis, George; Michalopoulou, Helena; Tsioufis, Costas; Makris, Thomas

2015-12-01

This analysis investigated the extent of different outcome reductions from low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering following ezetimibe/simvastatin treatment and the proportionality of outcome to LDL-C reductions. The authors searched PubMed between 1997 and mid-June 2015 (any language) and the Cochrane Library to identify all randomized controlled trials comparing ezetimibe/simvastatin with placebo or less intensive LDL-C lowering. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), standardized to 20 mg/dL LDL-C reduction, were calculated for 5 primary outcomes (fatal and nonfatal) and 4 secondary outcomes (non-cardiovascular [CV] death, cancer, myopathy, and hepatopathy). Five ezetimibe/simvastatin RCTs (30 051 individuals) were eligible, 2 comparing ezetimibe/simvastatin vs placebo and 3 vs less intensive treatment. Outcomes reduced almost to the same extent were stroke (RR: -13%, 95% CI: -21% to -3%), coronary heart disease (CHD; RR: -12%, 95% CI: -19% to -5%), and composite of stroke and CHD (RR: -14%, 95% CI: -20% to -8%). Absolute risk reductions: 5 strokes, 10 CHD events, and 16 stroke and CHD events prevented for every 1000 patients treated for 5 years. Residual risk was almost 7× higher than absolute risk reduction for all the above outcomes. All death outcomes were not reduced, and secondary outcomes did not differ between groups. Logarithmic risk ratios were not associated with LDL-C lowering. Our meta-analysis provides evidence that, in patients with different CV disease burden, major CV events are safely reduced by LDL-C lowering with ezetimibe/simvastatin, while raising the hypothesis that the extent of LDL-C lowering might not be accompanied by incremental clinical-event reduction. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

2016-06-01

A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.

Concurrent risk-reduction surgery in patients with increased lifetime risk for breast and ovarian cancer: an analysis of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database.

PubMed

Elmi, Maryam; Azin, Arash; Elnahas, Ahmad; McCready, David R; Cil, Tulin D

2018-05-14

Patients with genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer are eligible for risk-reduction surgery. Surgical morbidity of risk-reduction mastectomy (RRM) with concurrent bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is unknown. Outcomes in these patients were compared to patients undergoing RRM without BSO using a large multi-institutional database. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using the American College of Surgeon's National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) 2007-2016 datasets, comparing postoperative morbidity between patients undergoing RRM with patients undergoing RRM with concurrent BSO. Patients with genetic susceptibility to breast/ovarian cancer undergoing risk-reduction surgery were identified. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative major morbidity. Secondary outcomes included surgical site infections, reoperations, readmissions, length of stay, and venous thromboembolic events. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine predictors of postoperative morbidity and the adjusted effect of concurrent BSO on morbidity. Of the 5470 patients undergoing RRM, 149 (2.7%) underwent concurrent BSO. The overall rate of major morbidity and postoperative infections was 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the rate of postoperative major morbidity (4.5% vs 4.7%, p = 0.91) or any of the secondary outcomes between patients undergoing RRM without BSO vs. those undergoing RRM with concurrent BSO. Multivariable analysis showed Body Mass Index (OR 1.05; p < 0.001) and smoking (OR 1.78; p = 0.003) to be the only predictors associated with major morbidity. Neither immediate breast reconstruction (OR 1.02; p = 0.93) nor concurrent BSO (OR 0.94; p = 0.89) were associated with increased postoperative major morbidity. This study demonstrated that RRM with concurrent BSO was not associated with significant additional morbidity when compared to RRM without BSO. Therefore, this joint approach may be considered for select patients at risk for both breast and ovarian cancer.

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2003-2010 Passenger Cars and LTVs”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom

NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, bymore » 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the NHTSA data in slightly different ways to get a deeper understanding of the relationship between vehicle weight, footprint, and safety. The results of the NHTSA baseline results, and these alternative analyses, are summarized in Table ES.1; statistically significant estimates, based on the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, are shown in red in the tables. We found that NHTSA’s reasonable assumption that all vehicles will have ESC installed by 2017 in its baseline regression model slightly increases the estimated increase in risk from mass reduction in cars, but substantially decreases the estimated increase in risk from footprint reduction in all three vehicle types (Alternative 1 in Table ES.1; explained in more detail in Section 2.1 of this report). This is because NHTSA projects ESC to substantially reduce the number of fatalities in rollovers and crashes with stationary objects, and mass reduction appears to reduce risk, while footprint reduction appears to increase risk, in these types of crashes, particularly in cars and CUVs/minivans. A single regression model including all crash types results in slightly different estimates of the relationship between decreasing mass and risk, as shown in Alternative 2 in Table ES.1.« less

Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management in Istanbul (MegaIST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Khazai, Bijan; Ergün Konukcu, Betul; Emre Basmacı, Ahmet

2017-04-01

Decision makers need tools to understand the priorities and to set up benchmarks and track progress in their disaster risk reduction activities, so that they can justify their decisions and investments. In this regard, Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management (MegaIST), is developed in order to be used in disaster risk management studies, for decision makers and managers to establish right strategies and proper risk reduction actions, enhance resource management and investment decisions, set priorities, monitor progress in DRM and validate decisions taken with the aim of helping disaster oriented urban redevelopment, inform investors about risk profile of the city and providing a basis for dissemination and sharing of risk components with related stakeholders; by Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). MegaIST achieves these goals by analyzing the earthquake risk in three separate but complementary sub-categories consisting of "urban seismic risk, coping capacity and disaster risk management index" in an integrated way. MegaIST model fosters its analyses by presenting the outputs in a simple and user friendly format benefiting from GIS technology that ensures the adoptability of the model's use. Urban seismic risk analysis includes two components, namely; Physical Risk and Social Vulnerability Analysis. Physical risk analysis is based on the possible physical losses (such as building damage, casualties etc.) due to an earthquake while social vulnerability is considered as a factor that increases the results of the physical losses in correlation with the level of education, health, economic status and disaster awareness/preparedness of society. Coping capacity analysis is carried out with the aim of understanding the readiness of the Municipality to respond and recover from a disaster in Istanbul can be defined both in terms of the Municipality's operational capacities - the capacity of the Municipality in terms of the demand on its resources to respond to emergencies and restore services - as well as functional capacities - the policies and planning measures at the Municipality which lead to reduction of risk and protection of people. Disaster Risk Management Index (DRMI) is used as "control system" within the conceptual framework of MegaIST. This index has been developed to understand impact of corporate governance and enforcement structures and policies on total Urban Seismic Risk and in order to make the performance evaluation. Also, DRMI is composed of macro indicators that are developed in order to monitor progress in reducing disaster risk management of institution. They are presented in four broad indicator groups: Legal and Institutional Requirements, Risk Reduction Implementation and Preparedness Activities, Readiness to Respond and Recover, and Strategy and Coordination. As a result; in MegaIST, with the identification and analysis of physical and social vulnerabilities along with coping capacity and disaster risk management performance indicators; an integrated and analytical decision support system has been established to enhance DRM process and reach to a disaster resilient urban environment.

Meta-analysis: Does garlic intake reduce risk of gastric cancer?

PubMed

Kodali, R T; Eslick, Guy D

2015-01-01

In the past 2 decades, various epidemiological studies investigated whether garlic can positively modify the risk of gastric cancer. Garlic contains numerous sulfide compounds, including diallyl trisulfide, which have anticarcinogenic properties. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine if garlic intake reduces the risk of gastric cancer. An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE to June 2014 was completed. There were 14 case control studies, 2 randomized controlled studies, and 1 cohort study that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. We used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of gastric cancer with garlic consumption. Meta-analysis of a total of 8,621 cases and 14,889 controls was conducted. Significant variability in duration of garlic intake and reference categories for amount of intake was noted. High, low, and any garlic intake were all associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. High intake had the most significant risk reduction, OR = 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38-0.62). Heterogeneity was low (I² = 30.85, P = 0.17). A more modest risk reduction was associated with low intake, OR = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97). Half of the studies did not separate garlic intake into high or low amounts, intake was only noted as consumption vs. non-consumption. Any amount of consumption still showed a risk reduction similar to low intake, OR = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60-1.00). Low and any amount of consumption showed moderate heterogeneity (58% and 45%, respectively). Garlic intake appears to be associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. Further high quality studies are required to confirm this finding and to assess the amount of garlic that needs to be consumed for protective effect.

Exposure Perception as a Key Indicator of Risk Perception and Acceptance of Sources of Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields

PubMed Central

Wiedemann, Peter M.; Brown, Tim W. C.

2015-01-01

The presented survey was conducted in six European countries as an online study. A total of 2454 subjects participated. Two main research questions were investigated: firstly, how does the cognitive, moral, and affective framing of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) exposure perception influence RF EMF risk perception? Secondly, can the deployment of mobile phone base stations have greater acceptance with RF EMF exposure reduction? The findings with respect to the first question clearly indicated that the cognitive framed exposure perception is the main determinant of RF EMF risk perception. The concomitant sensitivity to exposure strength offers an opportunity to improve the acceptance of base stations by exposure reduction. A linear regression analysis supported this assumption: in a fictional test situation, exposure reduction improved the acceptance of base stations, operationalized as the requested distance of the base station from one's own home. Furthermore, subjects with high RF EMF risk perception were most sensitive to exposure reduction. On average, a 70% exposure reduction reduced the requested distance from about 2000 meters to 1000 meters. The consequences for risk communication are discussed. PMID:26229540

Effects of a cardiovascular risk reduction intervention with psychobehavioral strategies for Korean adults with type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Kim, Chun-Ja; Kim, Dae-Jung; Park, Hyung-Ran

2011-01-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and metabolic syndrome are associated with high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and depression. Although lifestyle modifications including regular exercise and weight control are recommended as a primary approach to glycemic control and CVD risk reduction for people with DM and/or metabolic syndrome, little is known concerning the effects of CVD risk reduction interventions using psychobehavioral strategies in this population. This pilot study investigated the effects of a 16-week CVD risk reduction intervention in Korean adults with type 2 DM and metabolic syndrome. A prospective, pretest and posttest, controlled, quasi-experimental design enrolled a convenience sample of 43 Korean adults with type 2 DM and metabolic syndrome at a university hospital. The adults in the intervention group participated in a 16-week CVD risk reduction intervention consisting of 150 minutes of regular exercise per week; 200- to 300-kcal reduced daily diet for weight control; one-on-one psychobehavioral counseling based on constructs from the Transtheoretical Model such as processes of change, self-efficacy, and decisional balance; and telephone coaching for behavioral modification. Participants in the control group received a booklet with basic diabetic education as part of their routine care. Repeated-measures analysis of variance was used for analyzing the effects of the CVD risk reduction intervention on cardiometabolic risk factors including the UK Prospective Diabetes Study score for 10-year CVD risk, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and depression. The intervention group showed significant reductions (P < .05) at 16 weeks, compared with the control group on the UK Prospective Diabetes Study fatal risk scale (-1.73% vs -0.04%), triglycerides (-38.5 vs -15.1 mg/dL), fasting plasma glucose (-29.24 vs +1.77 mg/dL), HbA1c (-0.37% vs +0.17%), and depression (score, -3.24 vs 1.40) measurements. This pilot study yielded evidence for the beneficial impact of the CVD risk reduction intervention for Korean adults with type 2 DM and metabolic syndrome on improved glycemic control, reduced CVD risk, and depression.

Estimation of norovirus infection risks to consumers of wastewater-irrigated food crops eaten raw.

PubMed

Mara, Duncan; Sleigh, Andrew

2010-03-01

A quantitative microbial risk analysis-Monte Carlo method was used to estimate norovirus infection risks to consumers of wastewater-irrigated lettuce. Using the same assumptions as used in the 2006 WHO guidelines for the safe use of wastewater in agriculture, a norovirus reduction of 6 log units was required to achieve a norovirus infection risk of approximately 10(-3) per person per year (pppy), but for a lower consumption of lettuce (40-48 g per week vs. 350 g per week) the required reduction was 5 log units. If the tolerable additional disease burden is increased from a DALY (disability-adjusted life year) loss of 10(-6) pppy (the value used in the WHO guidelines) to 10(-5) pppy, the required pathogen reduction is one order of magnitude lower. Reductions of 4-6 log units can be achieved by very simple partial treatment (principally settling to achieve a 1-log unit reduction) supplemented by very reliable post-treatment health-protection control measures such as pathogen die-off (1-2 log units), produce washing in cold water (1 log unit) and produce disinfection (3 log units).

Estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction from fixed-dose combination pill (polypill) treatment in a wide range of patients with a moderate risk of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Lafeber, Melvin; Webster, Ruth; Visseren, Frank Lj; Bots, Michiel L; Grobbee, Diederick E; Spiering, W; Rodgers, Anthony

2016-08-01

Recent data indicate that fixed-dose combination (FDC) pills, polypills, can produce sizeable risk factor reductions. There are very few published data on the consistency of the effects of a polypill in different patient populations. It is unclear for example whether the effects of the polypill are mainly driven by the individuals with high individual risk factor levels. The aim of the present study is to examine whether baseline risk factor levels modify the effect of polypill treatment on low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, blood pressure (BP), calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. This paper describes a post-hoc analysis of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, simvastatin 20 mg, lisinopril 10 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated five-year risk for cardiovascular disease ≥7.5%. The outcomes considered were effect modification by baseline risk factor levels on change in LDL-cholesterol, systolic BP, calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. The mean LDL-cholesterol in the polypill group was 0.9 mmol/l (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-1.0) lower compared with the placebo group during follow-up. Those with a baseline LDL-cholesterol >3.6 mmol/l achieved a greater absolute LDL-cholesterol reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than patients with an LDL-cholesterol ≤3.6 mmol/l (-1.1 versus -0.6 mmol/l, respectively). The mean systolic BP was 10 mm Hg (95% CI: 8-12) lower in the polypill group. In participants with a baseline systolic BP >135 mm Hg the polypill resulted in a greater absolute systolic BP reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than participants with a systolic BP ≤ 135 mm Hg (-12 versus -7 mm Hg, respectively). Calculated from individual risk factor reductions, the mean cardiovascular relative risk reduction was 48% (95% CI: 43-52) in the polypill group. Both baseline LDL-cholesterol and estimated cardiovascular risk were significant modifiers of the estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction caused by the polypill. Adverse events did not appear to be related to baseline risk factor levels or the estimated cardiovascular risk. This study demonstrated that the effect of a cardiovascular polypill on risk factor levels is modified by the level of these risk factors. Groups defined by baseline LDL-cholesterol or systolic BP had large differences in risk factor reductions but only moderate differences in estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction, suggesting also that patients with mildly increased risk factor levels but an overall raised cardiovascular risk benefit from being treated with a polypill. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

A qualitative descriptive study of risk reduction for coronary disease among the Hong Kong Chinese.

PubMed

Chan, Choi Wan; Lopez, Violeta

2014-01-01

Achieving optimal control and reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) risks in Hong Kong (HK) remains significant and requires exploring. This article addresses the ability to reduce CHD risks among the HK Chinese. Through secondary analysis, a qualitative descriptive design using focus group interviews and content analysis were adopted. Older and younger adults were invited for the study. An interview schedule was used to guide discussions during focus group interviews. Four categories emerged from the data: planning of health actions, control of risk-reducing behavior, perceived opportunities for understanding CHD, and chest pain appraisal. Local culture and population needs play a central role in disease perception and prevention. The findings are essential to target strategies for initiating health acts for younger adults and establish public education resources that underscore understanding of CHD risk, symptom recognition, and disease management, particularly among those middle-aged and older people at high risk and with the diseased populations. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impact of programming strategies aimed at reducing nonessential implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies on mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tan, Vern Hsen; Wilton, Stephen B; Kuriachan, Vikas; Sumner, Glen L; Exner, Derek V

2014-02-01

Patients who receive implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies are at higher risk of death versus those who do not. Programmed settings to reduce nonessential implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies (therapy reduction programming) have been developed but may have adverse effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the relationship between therapy reduction programming with the risks of death from any cause, implantable cardioverter defibrillator shocks, and syncope. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and clinicaltrials.gov databases were searched to identify relevant studies. Those that followed patients for ≥6 months and reported mortality were included. Six met the inclusion criteria; 4 randomized (Comparison of Empiric to Physician-Tailored Programming of ICDs [EMPIRIC], Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial-Reduce Inappropriate Therapy [MADIT-RIT], Avoid Delivering Therapies for Non-sustained Arrhythmias in ICD Patients III [ADVANCE III], and Programming Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators in Patients with Primary Prevention Indication to Prolong Time to First Shock [PROVIDE]) and 2 prospective studies (Role of Long Detection Window Programming in Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction, Non-ischemic Etiology in Primary Prevention Treated with a Biventricular ICD [RELEVANT] and Primary Prevention Parameters Evaluation [PREPARE]). These 6 studies included 7687 (3598 conventional and 4089 therapy reduction programming) patients. Most (77%) participants were men, had a history of ischemic heart disease (56%), and were prescribed β-blockers (84%). Therapy reduction programming was associated with a 30% relative reduction in mortality (95% confidence interval, 16%-41%; P<0.001). No significant heterogeneity among studies was observed (P=0.6). A similar 26% reduction in mortality was observed when only the 4 randomized trials were included (95% confidence interval, 11%-40%; P=0.002). These results were not significantly altered after adjustment for baseline characteristics. No significant difference in the risk of syncope was observed with conventional versus therapy reduction programming (P=0.5). Therapy reduction programming results in a large, significant, and consistent reduction in mortality, with no apparent increase in the risk of syncope.

Soy Consumption and Prostate Cancer Risk in Men: A Revisit of Meta-Analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: Soy is a major plant source of dietary protein to humans. Epidemiologic studies show that consumption of soy foods may be associated with a reduction in cancer risk in humans. Objective: The purpose of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on the association between soy consumption...

Soy Consumption of Prostate Cancer Risk in Men: A Meta-Analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soy is a major plant source of dietary protein to humans. Epidemiologic studies show that consumption of soy foods may be related to a reduction in cancer risk in humans. The purpose of the present study was to conduct a meta-analysis on the association between soy consumption and prostate cancer r...

Risk equalization and voluntary deductibles: a complex interaction.

PubMed

van Kleef, R C; Beck, K; van de Ven, W P M M; van Vliet, R C J A

2008-03-01

The presence of voluntary deductibles in the Swiss and Dutch mandatory health insurance has important implications for the respective risk equalization systems. In a theoretical analysis, we discuss the consequences of equalizing three types of expenditures: the net claims that are reimbursed by the insurer, the out-of-pocket expenditures and the expenditure savings due to moral hazard reduction. Equalizing only the net claims, as done in Switzerland, creates incentives for cream skimming and prevents insurers from incorporating out-of-pocket expenditures and moral hazard reductions into their premium structure. In an empirical analysis, we examine the effect of self-selection and conclude that the Swiss and Dutch risk equalization systems do not fully adjust for differences in health status between those who choose a deductible and those who do not. We discuss how this may lead to incentives for cream skimming and to a reduction of cross-subsidies from healthy to unhealthy individuals compared to a situation without voluntary deductibles.

HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category among MSM in Vancouver.

PubMed

Bogowicz, Paul; Moore, David; Kanters, Steve; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Hogg, Robert; Gustafson, Réka; Gilbert, Mark

2016-03-01

We carried out an analysis of a serobehavioural study of men who have sex with men >19 years of age in Vancouver, Canada to examine HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category, as defined by routinely gathered clinical data. We restricted our analysis to those who self-identified as HIV-negative, completed a questionnaire, and provided a dried blood spot sample. Of 842 participants, 365 (43.3%) were categorised as lower-risk, 245 (29.1%) as medium-risk and 232 (27.6%) as higher-risk. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was low (lower 0.8%, medium 3.3%, higher 3.9%; p = 0.032). Participants differed by risk category in terms of having had an HIV test in the previous year (lower 46.5%, medium 54.6%, higher 67.0%; p < 0.001) and in their use of serosorting (lower 23.3%, medium 48.3%, higher 43.1%; p < 0.001) and only having sex with HIV-positive men if those men had low viral loads or were taking HIV medication (lower 5.1%, medium 4.8%, higher 10.9%; p = 0.021) as risk reduction strategies. These findings speak to the need to consider segmented health promotion services for men who have sex with men with differing risk profiles. Risk stratification could be used to determine who might benefit from tailored multiple health promotion interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Physical activity and risk of pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Behrens, Gundula; Jochem, Carmen; Schmid, Daniela; Keimling, Marlen; Ricci, Cristian; Leitzmann, Michael F

2015-04-01

Physical activity may prevent pancreatic cancer by regulating body weight and decreasing insulin resistance, DNA damage, and chronic inflammation. Previous meta-analyses found inconsistent evidence for a protective effect of physical activity on pancreatic cancer but those studies did not investigate whether the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer varies by smoking status, body mass index (BMI), or level of consistency of physical activity over time. To address these issues, we conducted an updated meta-analysis following the PRISMA guidelines among 30 distinct studies with a total of 10,501 pancreatic cancer cases. Random effects meta-analysis of cohort studies revealed a weak, statistically significant reduction in pancreatic cancer risk for high versus low levels of physical activity (relative risk (RR) 0.93, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.88-0.98). By comparison, case-control studies yielded a stronger, statistically significant risk reduction (RR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.66-0.94; p-difference by study design = 0.07). When focusing on cohort studies, physical activity summary risk estimates appeared to be more pronounced for consistent physical activity over time (RR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.76-0.97) than for recent past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.90-1.01) or distant past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.79-1.15, p-difference by timing in life of physical activity = 0.36). Physical activity summary risk estimates did not differ by smoking status or BMI. In conclusion, physical activity is not strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk, and the relation is not modified by smoking status or BMI level. While overall findings were weak, we did find some suggestion of potential pancreatic cancer risk reduction with consistent physical activity over time.

Association between open or closed reduction and avascular necrosis in developmental dysplasia of the hip: A PRISMA-compliant meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Wang, Ya-Jie; Yang, Fan; Wu, Qi-Jun; Pan, Shi-Nong; Li, Lian-Yong

2016-07-01

The risk of avascular necrosis of the femoral head (AVN) after treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip is associated with the method of reduction. Some authors have suggested that open reduction is a risk factor for AVN; however, this is controversial. To our knowledge, a quantitative comparison of the incidence of AVN between closed and open reduction has not been conducted. Published studies were identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to May, 2015, focusing on the incidence of AVN after closed or open reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip in children aged <3 years. Patients were age-matched who were treated by either closed or open reduction, but without pelvic or femoral osteotomy. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and abstracted data. Discrepancies were discussed and resolved by consensus. We pooled the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) from individual studies using a random-effects model and evaluated heterogeneity and publication bias. Nine retrospective studies were included in this analysis. The pooled OR for comparing open reduction with closed reduction for all grades of AVN was 2.26 (95%CI = 1.21-4.22), with moderate heterogeneity (I = 44.7%, P = 0.107). The pooled OR for grades II to IV AVN was 2.46 (95%CI = 0.93-6.51), with high heterogeneity (I = 69.6%, P = 0.003). A significant association was also found for the further surgery between open and closed reduction, with a pooled OR of 0.30 (95%CI = 0.15-0.60) and moderate heterogeneity (I = 46.4%, P = 0.133). No evidence of publication bias or significant heterogeneity between subgroups was detected by meta-regression analyses. Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that open reduction is a risk factor for the development of AVN compared with closed treatment. Future studies are warranted to investigate how open reduction combined with pelvis and/or femoral osteotomy affects the incidence of AVN.

Adjuvant radiotherapy for stage I endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Kong, A; Johnson, N; Cornes, P; Simera, I; Collingwood, M; Williams, C; Kitchener, H

2007-04-18

The role of adjuvant radiotherapy (both pelvic external beam radiotherapy and vaginal intracavity brachytherapy) in stage I endometrial cancer following total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (TAH and BSO) remains unclear. To assess the efficacy of adjuvant radiotherapy following surgery for stage I endometrial cancer. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CancerLit, Physician Data Query (PDQ) of National Cancer Institute. Handsearching was also carried out where appropriate. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which compared adjuvant radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy following surgery for patients with stage I endometrial cancer were included. Quality of the studies was assessed and data collected using a predefined data collection form. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Secondary endpoints were locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence and endometrial cancer death. Data on quality of life (QOL) and morbidity were also collected. A meta-analysis on included trials was performed using the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager Software 4.2. The meta-analysis was performed on four trials (1770 patients). The addition of pelvic external beam radiotherapy to surgery reduced locoregional recurrence, a relative risk (RR) of 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 0.44, p < 0.00001), which is a 72% reduction in the risk of pelvic relapse (95% CI 56% to 83%) and an absolute risk reduction of 6% (95% CI of 4 to 8%). The number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one locoregional recurrence is 16.7 patients (95% CI 12.5 to 25). The reduction in the risk of locoregional recurrence did not translate into either a reduction in the risk of distant recurrence or death from all causes or endometrial cancer death. A subgroup analysis of women with multiple high risk factors (including stage 1c and grade 3) showed a trend toward the reduction in the risk of death from all causes and endometrial cancer death in patients who underwent adjuvant external beam radiotherapy. Patients with stage I endometrial carcinoma have different risks of local and distant recurrence depending on the presence of risk factors including stage 1c, grade 3, lymphovascular space invasion and age. Though external beam pelvic radiotherapy reduced locoregional recurrence by 72%, there is no evidence to suggest that it reduced the risk of death. In patients with multiple high risk factors, including stage 1c and grade 3, there was a trend towards a survival benefit and adjuvant external beam radiotherapy may be justified. For patients with only one risk factor, grade 3 or stage 1c, no definite conclusion can be made and data from ongoing studies ( ASTEC; Lukka) are awaited. External beam radiotherapy carries a risk of toxicity and should be avoided in stage 1 endometrial cancer patients with no high risk factors.

Modeling a theory-based approach to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction behaviors among drug users in treatment

PubMed Central

Huedo-Medina, Tania B.; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

2016-01-01

Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one’s ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs. PMID:27052845

Modeling a Theory-Based Approach to Examine the Influence of Neurocognitive Impairment on HIV Risk Reduction Behaviors Among Drug Users in Treatment.

PubMed

Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

2016-08-01

Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs, sus siglas en inglés) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one's ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials.

PubMed

Darby, S; McGale, P; Correa, C; Taylor, C; Arriagada, R; Clarke, M; Cutter, D; Davies, C; Ewertz, M; Godwin, J; Gray, R; Pierce, L; Whelan, T; Wang, Y; Peto, R

2011-11-12

After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk. We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease. Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7-17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6-6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2-17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8-5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (≥20%), intermediate (10-19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1-12·5), 1·1% (-2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (-7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5-27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8-15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease. After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made. Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soy, Isoflavones, and Prostate Cancer Risk in Men: A Revisit of Meta-Analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soy is a major plant source of dietary protein to humans. Epidemiologic studies show that soy consumption may be associated with a reduction in cancer risk in humans. The purpose of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on the association between soy and prostate cancer in men. We systematicall...

Bisoprolol for the treatment of chronic heart failure: a meta-analysis on individual data of two placebo-controlled studies--CIBIS and CIBIS II. Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study.

PubMed

Leizorovicz, Alain; Lechat, Philippe; Cucherat, Michel; Bugnard, Françoise

2002-02-01

Despite the available evidence from randomized clinical trials, beta-blockers are often not used optimally in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). This meta-analysis aims at providing a precise and quantitative estimate of the benefit and risks of long-term bisoprolol on major clinical events in patients with CHF, both overall and in selected subgroups. This may help clinicians in their decisions as to whether to prescribe bisoprolol for their individual patients. Meta-analysis was performed of results from the 2 randomized, controlled clinical studies in which bisoprolol was compared with placebo (Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study [CIBIS and CIBIS II]), which included 3288 patients with proven CHF. The main outcomes were total death, cardiovascular death, sudden death, hospitalization for heart failure, and myocardial infarction. A highly significant 29.3% relative reduction of death (17%, 40%; P =.00003) was observed, as well as significant risk reduction in cardiovascular death and sudden death in favor of bisoprolol. Also, a highly significant relative reduction of 18.4% (25%, 11%; P =.00001) in hospital admission or death was observed. A similar relative reduction of death was consistently observed in selected subgroups of patients. Bisoprolol prevents major cardiovascular events in patients with CHF with a high benefit-to-risk ratio and can be recommended for these patients.

Improving risk management: from lame excuses to principled practice.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth; Cox, Louis Anthony

2014-07-01

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame-shifting "lame excuses" for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning-especially from near-misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk-reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk perceptions and food choice: an exploratory analysis of organic- versus conventional-produce buyers.

PubMed

Hammitt, J K

1990-09-01

Consumer choice between organically (without pesticides) and conventionally grown produce is examined. Exploratory focus-group discussions and questionnaires (N = 43) suggest that individuals who purchase organically grown produce believe it is substantially less hazardous than the conventional alternative and are willing to pay significant premiums to obtain it (a median 50% above the cost of conventional produce). The value of risk reduction implied by this incremental willingness to pay is not high relative to estimates for other risks, since the perceived risk reduction is relatively large. Organic-produce consumers also appear more likely than conventional-produce consumers to mitigate other ingestion-related risks (e.g., contaminated drinking water) but less likely to use automobile seatbelts.

Logistic regression analysis of factors associated with avascular necrosis of the femoral head following femoral neck fractures in middle-aged and elderly patients.

PubMed

Ai, Zi-Sheng; Gao, You-Shui; Sun, Yuan; Liu, Yue; Zhang, Chang-Qing; Jiang, Cheng-Hua

2013-03-01

Risk factors for femoral neck fracture-induced avascular necrosis of the femoral head have not been elucidated clearly in middle-aged and elderly patients. Moreover, the high incidence of screw removal in China and its effect on the fate of the involved femoral head require statistical methods to reflect their intrinsic relationship. Ninety-nine patients older than 45 years with femoral neck fracture were treated by internal fixation between May 1999 and April 2004. Descriptive analysis, interaction analysis between associated factors, single factor logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and detailed interaction analysis were employed to explore potential relationships among associated factors. Avascular necrosis of the femoral head was found in 15 cases (15.2 %). Age × the status of implants (removal vs. maintenance) and gender × the timing of reduction were interactive according to two-factor interactive analysis. Age, the displacement of fractures, the quality of reduction, and the status of implants were found to be significant factors in single factor logistic regression analysis. Age, age × the status of implants, and the quality of reduction were found to be significant factors in multivariate logistic regression analysis. In fine interaction analysis after multivariate logistic regression analysis, implant removal was the most important risk factor for avascular necrosis in 56-to-85-year-old patients, with a risk ratio of 26.00 (95 % CI = 3.076-219.747). The middle-aged and elderly have less incidence of avascular necrosis of the femoral head following femoral neck fractures treated by cannulated screws. The removal of cannulated screws can induce a significantly high incidence of avascular necrosis of the femoral head in elderly patients, while a high-quality reduction is helpful to reduce avascular necrosis.

Medial versus anterior open reduction for developmental hip dislocation in age-matched patients.

PubMed

Hoellwarth, Jason S; Kim, Young-Jo; Millis, Michael B; Kasser, James R; Zurakowski, David; Matheney, Travis H

2015-01-01

The difference between medial (MAOR) and anterior (AAOR) approaches for open reduction of developmental hip dysplasia in terms of risk for avascular necrosis (AVN) and need for further corrective surgery (FCS, femoral and/or acetabular osteotomy) is unclear. This study compared age-matched cohorts undergoing either MAOR or AAOR in terms of these 2 primary outcomes. Prognostic impact of presence of ossific nucleus at time of open reduction was also investigated. Institutional review board approval was obtained. Nineteen hips (14 patients) managed by MAOR were matched with 19 hips (18 patients) managed by AAOR based on age at operation (mean 6.0; range, 1.4 to 14.9 mo). Patients with neuromuscular conditions and known connective tissue disorders were excluded. Primary outcomes assessed at minimum 2 years' follow-up included radiographic evidence of AVN (Kalamchi and MacEwen) or requiring FCS. MAOR and AAOR cohorts were similar regarding age at open reduction, sex, laterality, and follow-up duration. One hip in each group had AVN before open reduction thus were excluded from AVN analysis. At minimum 2 years postoperatively (mean 6.2; range, 1.8 to 11.7 y), 4/18 (22%) MAOR and 5/18 (28%) AAOR met the same criteria for AVN (P=1.0). No predictors of AVN could be identified by regression analysis. Presence of an ossific nucleus preoperatively was not a protective factor from AVN (P=0.27). FCS was required in 4/19 (21%) MAOR and 7/19 (37%) AAOR hips (P=0.48). However, 7/12 (54%) hips failing closed reduction required FCS compared with 4/26 (16%) hips without prior failed closed reduction (P=0.024). Cox regression analysis showed that patients who failed closed reduction had an annual risk of requiring FCS approximately 6 times that of patients without a history of failed closed reduction (hazard ratio=6.1; 95% CI, 1.5-24.4; P=0.009), independent of surgical approach (P=0.55) or length of follow-up (P=0.78). In this study of age-matched patients undergoing either MAOR or AAOR, we found no association between surgical approach and risk of AVN or FCS. In addition, we identified no protective benefit of a preoperative ossific nucleus in terms of development of AVN. However, failing closed reduction was associated with a 6-fold increased annual risk of requiring FCS. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study comparing these 2 surgical techniques in an age-matched manner. It further corroborates previous studies stating that there may be no difference in risk of AVN based on surgical approach or presence of ossific nucleus preoperatively. Level III-retrospective comparative study.

Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2013-04-01

Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model and the knowledge collected from experts. The visualization of the risk reduction scenarios can also be shared among the users on the web to support the on-line participatory process. In addition, cost-benefit ratios of the different risk reduction scenarios can be prepared in order to serve as inputs for high-level decision makers. The most appropriate risk reduction scenarios will be chosen using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method by weighting different parameters according to the preferences and criteria defined by the users. The role of public participation has been changing from one-way communication between authorities, experts, stakeholders and citizens towards more intensive two-way interaction. Involving the affected public and interest groups can enhance the level of legitimacy, transparency, and confidence in the decision making process. Due to its important part in decision making, online participatory tool is included in the DSS in order to allow the involved stakeholders interactively in risk reduction and be aware of the existing vulnerability conditions of the community. Moreover, it aims to achieve a more transparent and better informed decision-making process. The system is under in progress and the first tools implemented will be presented showing the wide possibilities of new web technologies which can have a great impact on the decision making process. It will be applied in four pilot areas in Europe: French Alps, North Eastern Italy, Romania and Poland. Nevertheless, the framework will be designed and implemented in a way to be applicable in any other regions.

A Path Analysis of a Randomized "Promotora de Salud" Cardiovascular Disease-Prevention Trial among At-Risk Hispanic Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Heer, Hendrik Dirk; Balcazar, Hector G.; Castro, Felipe; Schulz, Leslie

2012-01-01

This study assessed effectiveness of an educational community intervention taught by "promotoras de salud" in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Hispanics using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Model development was guided by a social ecological framework proposing CVD risk reduction through improvement of…

The effectiveness of group-based comprehensive risk-reduction and abstinence education interventions to prevent or reduce the risk of adolescent pregnancy, human immunodeficiency virus, and sexually transmitted infections: two systematic reviews for the Guide to Community Preventive Services.

PubMed

Chin, Helen B; Sipe, Theresa Ann; Elder, Randy; Mercer, Shawna L; Chattopadhyay, Sajal K; Jacob, Verughese; Wethington, Holly R; Kirby, Doug; Elliston, Donna B; Griffith, Matt; Chuke, Stella O; Briss, Susan C; Ericksen, Irene; Galbraith, Jennifer S; Herbst, Jeffrey H; Johnson, Robert L; Kraft, Joan M; Noar, Seth M; Romero, Lisa M; Santelli, John

2012-03-01

Adolescent pregnancy, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are major public health problems in the U.S. Implementing group-based interventions that address the sexual behavior of adolescents may reduce the incidence of pregnancy, HIV, and other STIs in this group. Methods for conducting systematic reviews from the Guide to Community Preventive Services were used to synthesize scientific evidence on the effectiveness of two strategies for group-based behavioral interventions for adolescents: (1) comprehensive risk reduction and (2) abstinence education on preventing pregnancy, HIV, and other STIs. Effectiveness of these interventions was determined by reductions in sexual risk behaviors, pregnancy, HIV, and other STIs and increases in protective sexual behaviors. The literature search identified 6579 citations for comprehensive risk reduction and abstinence education. Of these, 66 studies of comprehensive risk reduction and 23 studies of abstinence education assessed the effects of group-based interventions that address the sexual behavior of adolescents, and were included in the respective reviews. Meta-analyses were conducted for each strategy on the seven key outcomes identified by the coordination team-current sexual activity; frequency of sexual activity; number of sex partners; frequency of unprotected sexual activity; use of protection (condoms and/or hormonal contraception); pregnancy; and STIs. The results of these meta-analyses for comprehensive risk reduction showed favorable effects for all of the outcomes reviewed. For abstinence education, the meta-analysis showed a small number of studies, with inconsistent findings across studies that varied by study design and follow-up time, leading to considerable uncertainty around effect estimates. Based on these findings, group-based comprehensive risk reduction was found to be an effective strategy to reduce adolescent pregnancy, HIV, and STIs. No conclusions could be drawn on the effectiveness of group-based abstinence education. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Quantifying the dose-response of walking in reducing coronary heart disease risk: meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zheng, Henry; Orsini, Nicola; Amin, Janaki; Wolk, Alicja; Nguyen, Van Thi Thuy; Ehrlich, Fred

2009-01-01

The evidence for the efficacy of walking in reducing the risk of and preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) is not completely understood. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the dose-response relationship between walking and CHD risk reduction for both men and women in the general population. Studies on walking and CHD primary prevention between 1954 and 2007 were identified through Medline, SportDiscus and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Random-effect meta-regression models were used to pool the relative risks from individual studies. A total of 11 prospective cohort studies and one randomized control trial study met the inclusion criteria, with 295,177 participants free of CHD at baseline and 7,094 cases at follow-up. The meta-analysis indicated that an increment of approximately 30 min of normal walking a day for 5 days a week was associated with 19% CHD risk reduction (95% CI = 14-23%; P-heterogeneity = 0.56; I (2) = 0%). We found no evidence of heterogeneity between subgroups of studies defined by gender (P = 0.67); age of the study population (P = 0.52); or follow-up duration (P = 0.77). The meta-analysis showed that the risk for developing CHD decreases as walking dose increases. Walking should be prescribed as an evidence-based effective exercise modality for CHD prevention in the general population.

Limb reduction defects in the northern region of England 1985-92.

PubMed Central

Wright, M J; Newell, J N; Charlton, M E; Hey, E N; Donaldson, L J; Burn, J

1995-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--To test the hypothesis that children born to mothers living near the sea are at increased risk of limb reduction defects. DESIGN--Descriptive data analysis. SETTING--The northern health region of England. PATIENTS--All children born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 1992 in the northern region of England with isolated limb reduction defects. MAIN RESULTS--The birth prevalence of isolated limb reduction defects was not affected by the distance the mother lived from the sea. There was some evidence of space-time clustering, but there was no evidence of statistically significant variation in the occurrence of the condition with sex, time of birth (monthly or yearly), or county of birth. CONCLUSIONS--There is no evidence that children born to mothers living near the sea are at increased risk of limb reduction defects. PMID:7629469

An international systematic review and meta-analysis of multisession psychosocial interventions compared with educational or minimal interventions on the HIV sex risk behaviors of people who use drugs.

PubMed

Meader, Nicholas; Semaan, Salaam; Halton, Marie; Bhatti, Henna; Chan, Melissa; Llewellyn, Alexis; Des Jarlais, Don C

2013-07-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis examines the effectiveness of multisession psychosocial interventions compared with educational interventions and minimal interventions in reducing sexual risk in people who use drugs (51 studies; 19,209 participants). We conducted comprehensive searches (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and PsychINFO 1998-2012). Outcomes (unprotected sex, condom use, or a composite outcome) were extracted by two authors and synthesised using meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were conducted to explore heterogeneity. Multisession psychosocial interventions had modest additional benefits compared to educational interventions (K = 46; OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.77, 0.96), and large positive effects compared to minimal interventions (K = 7; OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.46, 0.78). Comparison with previous meta-analyses suggested limited progress in recent years in developing more effective interventions. Multisession psychosocial and educational interventions provided similar modest sexual risk reduction justifying offering educational interventions in settings with limited exposure to sexual risk reduction interventions, messages, and resources.

Coupling Post-Event and Prospective Analyses for El Niño-related Risk Reduction in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Adam; Keating, Adriana; Mechler, Reinhard; Szoenyi, Michael; Cisneros, Abel; Chuquisengo, Orlando; Etienne, Emilie; Ferradas, Pedro

2017-04-01

Analyses in the wake of natural disasters play an important role in identifying how ex ante risk reduction and ex post hazard response activities have both succeeded and fallen short in specific contexts, thereby contributing to recommendations for improving such measures in the future. Event analyses have particular relevance in settings where disasters are likely to reoccur, and especially where recurrence intervals are short. This paper applies the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) methodology to the context of frequently reoccurring El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the country of Peru, where over the last several decades ENSO impacts have generated high levels of damage and economic loss. Rather than analyzing the impacts of a single event, this study builds upon the existing PERC methodology by combining empirical event analysis with a critical examination of risk reduction and adaptation measures implemented both prior to and following several ENSO events in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Additionally, the paper explores linking the empirical findings regarding the uptake and outcomes of particular risk reduction and adaptation strategies to a prospective, scenario-based approach for projecting risk several decades into the future.

Effect of the Cedar River on the quality of the ground-water supply for Cedar Rapids, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulmeyer, P.M.

1995-01-01

Above-normal streamflow and precipitation during the study could have increased the effect the river had on the alluvial aquifer and on the possibility of contamination by a pathogen. Microscopic particulate analysis of 29 samples found no Giardia cysts or Crytosporidium oocysts in water collected from municipal wells. Data also indicate that the aquifer is filtering out large numbers of algae, diatoms, rotifers, and nematodes as well as filtering out Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and other protozoa. The number of algae, diatoms, rotifers, protozoa, and vegetative debris for selected municipal wells tested showed at least a reduction to 1 per 1,000 of the number found in the river. A relative risk factor and a log-reduction rate were determined for the aquifer in the vicinity of selected wells. One municipal well had a high-risk factor, three other wells had a moderate-risk factor, and four wells had a low-risk factor. The filtering efficiency of the aquifer is equivalent to a 3 log-reduction rate or 99.99-percent reduction in particulates.

Mesalamine, but Not Sulfasalazine, Reduces the Risk of Colorectal Neoplasia in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: An Agent-specific Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

OʼConnor, Anthony; Packey, Christopher D; Akbari, Mona; Moss, Alan C

2015-11-01

In some studies, 5-aminosalicylates as a class have been associated with protective effects against colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease. In practice, only mesalamine at doses greater than 1.2 g per day is currently widely in this setting. The specific impact of mesalamine at these doses has not has not previously been determined. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of mesalamine on risk of colorectal neoplasia (CRN) from prior cohort and case-control studies. Sensitivity analyses for study setting and case definition were performed. A quality assessment was made of all included studies. Mesalamine was associated with a modest reduction in the odds ratio (OR) of CRN (OR = 0.6, 95% confidence interval, 0.4-0.9, P = 0.04). This effect was only noted in hospital-based studies and only in the reduction of all CRN (not cancers alone). Patients prescribed doses >1.2 g per day had a lower risk of CRN (OR = 0.5, 95% confidence interval, 0.3-0.9, P = 0.02) than lower doses. This effect was also only present in the hospital-based studies. In contrast, there was no reduction in the risk of CRN in patients prescribed sulfasalazine (OR = 0.8, 95% confidence interval, 0.5-1.2, P = 0.3), regardless of study setting. Mesalamine, particularly at doses >1.2 g per day, produces a modest reduction in the risk of CRN in inflammatory bowel disease patient populations from referral centers. Sulfasalazine does not seem to reduce the risk. No benefit was noted in population-based studies.

Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

PubMed

Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

2017-07-15

Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased Consumption of Fruit and Vegetables Is Related to a Reduced Risk of Cognitive Impairment and Dementia: Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xian; Huang, Jiang; Song, Daqiang; Deng, Ru; Wei, Jicheng; Zhang, Zhuo

2017-01-01

Background: Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment and dementia in many epidemiological studies. The purpose of this study was to assess the strength of this association in a meta-analysis. Methods: We identified relevant studies by searching Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library electronic databases (from 1970 to January 2016). Study were included if they reported relative risks and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cognitive impairment and dementia with respect to frequency of fruit and vegetable intake. Results: Nine studies (five cohort studies and four cross-sectional studies) met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. There were a total of 31,104 participants and 4,583 incident cases of cognitive impairment and dementia. The meta-analysis showed that an increased consumption of fruit and vegetables was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cognitive impairment and dementia (OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.71–0.89). Subgroup analysis indicated this inverse association was only found among participants with mean age over 65 years and combined sexes. Dose–response meta-analysis showed that an increment of 100 g per day of fruit and vegetable consumption was related to an approximately 13% (OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.77–0.99) reduction in cognitive impairment and dementia risk. There was no potential publication bias in the meta-analysis and the dose–response meta-analysis. Conclusion: The increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment and dementia. PMID:28223933

A Meta-Analysis of Interventions to Reduce Loneliness

PubMed Central

Masi, Christopher M.; Chen, Hsi-Yuan; Hawkley, Louise C.; Cacioppo, John T.

2013-01-01

Social and demographic trends are placing an increasing number of adults at risk for loneliness, an established risk factor for physical and mental illness. The growing costs of loneliness have led to a number of loneliness reduction interventions. Qualitative reviews have identified four primary intervention strategies: 1) improving social skills, 2) enhancing social support, 3) increasing opportunities for social contact, and 4) addressing maladaptive social cognition. An integrative meta-analysis of loneliness reduction interventions was conducted to quantify the effects of each strategy and to examine the potential role of moderator variables. Results revealed that single group pre-post and non-randomized comparison studies yielded larger mean effect sizes relative to randomized comparison studies. Among studies that used the latter design, the most successful interventions addressed maladaptive social cognition. This is consistent with current theories regarding loneliness and its etiology. Theoretical and methodological issues associated with designing new loneliness reduction interventions are discussed. PMID:20716644

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew

2015-01-01

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Chocolate consumption and cardiometabolic disorders: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Buitrago-Lopez, Adriana; Sanderson, Jean; Johnson, Laura; Warnakula, Samantha; Wood, Angela; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association of chocolate consumption with the risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies. Data sources Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, PubMed, CINAHL, IPA, Web of Science, Scopus, Pascal, reference lists of relevant studies to October 2010, and email contact with authors. Study selection Randomised trials and cohort, case-control, and cross sectional studies carried out in human adults, in which the association between chocolate consumption and the risk of outcomes related to cardiometabolic disorders were reported. Data extraction Data were extracted by two independent investigators, and a consensus was reached with the involvement of a third. The primary outcome was cardiometabolic disorders, including cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke), diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. A meta-analysis assessed the risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders by comparing the highest and lowest level of chocolate consumption. Results From 4576 references seven studies met the inclusion criteria (including 114 009 participants). None of the studies was a randomised trial, six were cohort studies, and one a cross sectional study. Large variation was observed between these seven studies for measurement of chocolate consumption, methods, and outcomes evaluated. Five of the seven studies reported a beneficial association between higher levels of chocolate consumption and the risk of cardiometabolic disorders. The highest levels of chocolate consumption were associated with a 37% reduction in cardiovascular disease (relative risk 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.44 to 0.90)) and a 29% reduction in stroke compared with the lowest levels. Conclusions Based on observational evidence, levels of chocolate consumption seem to be associated with a substantial reduction in the risk of cardiometabolic disorders. Further experimental studies are required to confirm a potentially beneficial effect of chocolate consumption. PMID:21875885

Chocolate consumption and cardiometabolic disorders: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Buitrago-Lopez, Adriana; Sanderson, Jean; Johnson, Laura; Warnakula, Samantha; Wood, Angela; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Franco, Oscar H

2011-08-26

To evaluate the association of chocolate consumption with the risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies. Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, PubMed, CINAHL, IPA, Web of Science, Scopus, Pascal, reference lists of relevant studies to October 2010, and email contact with authors. Randomised trials and cohort, case-control, and cross sectional studies carried out in human adults, in which the association between chocolate consumption and the risk of outcomes related to cardiometabolic disorders were reported. Data were extracted by two independent investigators, and a consensus was reached with the involvement of a third. The primary outcome was cardiometabolic disorders, including cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke), diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. A meta-analysis assessed the risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders by comparing the highest and lowest level of chocolate consumption. From 4576 references seven studies met the inclusion criteria (including 114,009 participants). None of the studies was a randomised trial, six were cohort studies, and one a cross sectional study. Large variation was observed between these seven studies for measurement of chocolate consumption, methods, and outcomes evaluated. Five of the seven studies reported a beneficial association between higher levels of chocolate consumption and the risk of cardiometabolic disorders. The highest levels of chocolate consumption were associated with a 37% reduction in cardiovascular disease (relative risk 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.44 to 0.90)) and a 29% reduction in stroke compared with the lowest levels. Based on observational evidence, levels of chocolate consumption seem to be associated with a substantial reduction in the risk of cardiometabolic disorders. Further experimental studies are required to confirm a potentially beneficial effect of chocolate consumption.

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

PubMed Central

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management system, e.g. focused on standards for individual pollutants and with separate goals for air toxics and ambient pollutants. However, additional improvements may be possible if goals and actions are defined in terms of risk metrics that are comparable across criteria pollutants and air toxics (hazardous air pollutants), and that encompass both human health and ecological risks. PMID:21209847

The effect of routine early amniotomy on spontaneous labor: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brisson-Carroll, G; Fraser, W; Bréart, G; Krauss, I; Thornton, J

1996-05-01

To obtain estimates of the effects of amniotomy on the risk of cesarean delivery and on other indicators of maternal and neonatal morbidity (Apgar score less than 7 at 5 minutes, admission to neonatal intensive care unit [NICU]). Published studies were identified through manual and computerized searches using Medline and the Cochrane Collaboration Pregnancy and Childbirth Database. Our search identified ten trials, all published in peer-reviewed journals. Trials were assigned a methodological quality score based on a standardized rating system. Three trials were excluded from the analysis for methodological limitations. Data were abstracted by two trained reviewers. Typical odds ratios (OR) were calculated. Amniotomy was associated with a reduction in labor duration varying from 0.8-2.3 hours. There was a nonstatistically significant increase in the risk of cesarean delivery; OR 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-1.6. The risk of a 5-minute Apgar score less than 7 was reduced in association with early amniotomy (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9). Groups were similar with respect to other indicators of neonatal status (arterial cord pH, NICU admissions). Routine early amniotomy is associated with both benefits and risks. Benefits include a reduction in labor duration and a possible reduction in abnormal 5-minute Apgar scores. This meta-analysis provides no support for the hypothesis that routine early amniotomy reduces the risk of cesarean delivery. An association between early amniotomy and cesarean delivery for fetal distress was noted in one large trial, suggesting that amniotomy should be reserved for patients with abnormal labor progress.

[Four numbers and a bit more basic knowledge of mathematics].

PubMed

Günther, Judith; Briel, Matthias; Suter, Katja

2015-02-01

In addition to relative risk, relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction there circulates another effect size for binary endpoints in the scientific medical literature: the odds ratio. Relative risk and odds ratio are alternative ways of reflecting study results. Both, relative risk (RR) and odds ratio (OR), can easily be calculated from the "2 x 2-table". Advantage of OR: odds ratios can be calculated in every type of controlled study design, including retrospective studies. Furthermore, odds ratios--the biostatisticians are swarming--offer beautiful mathematical properties and therefore are often used in meta-analysis as an effect size for calculating a pooled estimate of the results of different studies with the same clinical question. Disadvantage of OR: In clinical studies the presentation of the results as "odds ratios" may result in an overestimation of the intervention effect. This article shows the difference between "chance" and "risk" and how odds ratio and relative risk are associated.

LMWH in the prevention of preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction in women without thrombophilia. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mastrolia, Salvatore Andrea; Novack, Lena; Thachil, Jecko; Rabinovich, Anat; Pikovsky, Oleg; Klaitman, Vered; Loverro, Giuseppe; Erez, Offer

2016-10-28

Placental mediated pregnancy complications such as preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction (FGR) are common, serious, and associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of treatment with low-molecular-weight heparins (LMWHs) for secondary prevention of these complications in non thrombophilic women. We searched the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials addressing this question. Five studies including 403 patients met the inclusion criteria, 68 developed preeclampsia and 118 FGR. The studies were very heterogeneous in terms of inclusion criteria, LMWH preparation, and dosage. Meta-analyses were performed using random-effect models. The overall use of LMWHs was associated with a risk reduction for preeclampsia (Relative risk (RR) 0.366; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.219-0.614) and FGR (RR 0.409; 95 % CI, 0.195-0.932) vs. no treatment. From the data available for analysis it appears that the use of Dalteparin is associated with a risk reduction for preeclampsia (p=0.002) and FGR (p<0.001); while Enoxaparin is associated with risk reduction for preeclampsia (p=0.013) but not for FGR (p=0.3). In spite of the small number of studies addressing the research question, and the high variability among them, our meta-analysis found a modest beneficial effect of LMWH for secondary prevention of preeclampsia and FGR. Further studies are needed to address these questions before a definite conclusion can be reached.

Determinants of National Fire Plan Fuels Treatment Expenditures: A Revealed Preference Analysis for Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Curt; Grimsrud, Kristine; Berrens, Robert P.

2009-10-01

The accumulation of fire fuels in forests throughout the world contributes significantly to the severity of wildfires. To combat the threat of wildfire, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), US federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of National Fire Plan (NFP) expenditures for fuel reduction treatments in northern New Mexico (USA). Estimation results from a set of Generalized Estimating Equations models are mixed with respect to risk reduction hypotheses, and also raise issues regarding how risk reduction should be defined for a region characterized by both pockets of urban sprawl into the WUI and large areas of chronic rural poverty. Program preferences for project funding under the federal Collaborative Forest Restoration Program in New Mexico are shown to be distinctly different (e.g., exhibiting greater concern for social equity) than for other NFP-funded projects.

Does message framing affect changes in behavioural intentions in people with psoriasis? A randomized exploratory study examining health risk communication.

PubMed

Keyworth, C; Nelson, P A; Bundy, C; Pye, S R; Griffiths, C E M; Cordingley, L

2018-08-01

Message framing is important in health communication research to encourage behaviour change. Psoriasis, a long-term inflammatory skin condition, has additional comorbidities including high levels of anxiety and cardiovascular disease (CVD), making message framing particularly important. This experimental study aimed to: (1) identify whether health messages about psoriasis presented as either gain- or loss-framed were more effective for prompting changes in behavioural intentions (BI), (2) examine whether BI were driven by a desire to improve psoriasis or reduce CVD risk; (3) examine emotional reactions to message frame; and (4) examine predictors of BI. A two by two experiment examined the effects on BI of message frame (loss vs. gain) and message focus (psoriasis symptom reduction vs. CVD risk reduction). Participants with psoriasis (n = 217) were randomly allocated to one of four evidence-based health messages related to either smoking, alcohol, diet or physical activity, using an online questionnaire. BI was the primary outcome. Analysis of variance tests and hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. A significant frame by focus interaction was found for BI to reduce alcohol intake (p = .023); loss-framed messages were more effective for CVD risk reduction information, whilst gain-framed messages were more effective for psoriasis symptom reduction information. Message framing effects were not found for BI for increased physical activity and improving diet. High CVD risk was a significant predictor  of increased BI for both alcohol reduction (β = .290, p < .01) and increased physical activity (β = -.231, p < .001). Message framing may be an important factor to consider depending on the health benefit emphasised (disease symptom reduction or CVD risk reduction) and patient-stated priorities. Condition-specific health messages in psoriasis populations may increase the likelihood of message effectiveness for alcohol reduction.

Fatality Reduction by Air Bags: Analyses of Accident Data through Early 1996

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-01

The fatality risk of front-seat occupants of passenger cars and light trucks equipped with air bags is compared to the corresponding risk in similar vehicles without air bags, based on statistical analysis of Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS)dat...

FMEA: a model for reducing medical errors.

PubMed

Chiozza, Maria Laura; Ponzetti, Clemente

2009-06-01

Patient safety is a management issue, in view of the fact that clinical risk management has become an important part of hospital management. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and reduction, firstly introduced within the aerospace industry in the 1960s. Early applications in the health care industry dating back to the 1990s included critical systems in the development and manufacture of drugs and in the prevention of medication errors in hospitals. In 2008, the Technical Committee of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), licensed a technical specification for medical laboratories suggesting FMEA as a method for prospective risk analysis of high-risk processes. Here we describe the main steps of the FMEA process and review data available on the application of this technique to laboratory medicine. A significant reduction of the risk priority number (RPN) was obtained when applying FMEA to blood cross-matching, to clinical chemistry analytes, as well as to point-of-care testing (POCT).

Substantial improvement of primary cardiovascular prevention by a systematic score-based multimodal approach: A randomized trial: The PreFord-Study.

PubMed

Gysan, Detlef Bernd; Millentrup, Stefanie; Albus, Christian; Bjarnason-Wehrens, Birna; Latsch, Joachim; Gohlke, Helmut; Herold, Gerd; Wegscheider, Karl; Heming, Christian; Seyfarth, Melchior; Predel, Hans-Georg

2017-09-01

Trial design Prospective randomized multicentre interventional study. Methods Individual cardiovascular risk assessment in Ford Company, Germany employees ( n = 4.196), using the European Society of Cardiology-Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (ESC-SCORE) for classification into three risk groups. Subjects assigned to ESC high-risk group (ESC-SCORE ≥ 5%), without a history of cardiovascular disease were eligible for randomization to a multimodal 15-week intervention programme (INT) or to usual care and followed up for 36 months. Objectives Evaluation of the long-term effects of a risk-adjusted multimodal intervention in high-risk subjects. Primary endpoint: reduction of ESC-SCORE in INT versus usual care. Secondary endpoints: composite of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events and time to first cardiovascular event. intention-to-treat and per-protocol analysis. Results Four hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized to INT ( n = 224) or to usual care ( n = 223). After 36 months ESC-SCORE development favouring INT was observed (INT: 8.70% to 10.03% vs. usual care: 8.49% to 12.09%; p = 0.005; net difference: 18.50%). Moreover, a significant reduction in the composite cardiovascular events was observed: (INT: n = 11 vs. usual care: n = 27). Hazard ratio of intervention versus control was 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.25-1.03; p = 0.062) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.18-0.90; p = 0.026) in the per-protocol analysis, respectively. No intervention-related adverse events or side-effects were observed. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the efficiency of identifying cardiovascular high-risk subjects by the ESC-SCORE in order to enrol them to a risk adjusted primary prevention programme. This strategy resulted in a significant improvement of ESC-SCORE, as well as a reduction in predefined cardiovascular endpoints in the INT within 36 months. (ISRCTN 23536103.).

Role of calcium supplementation during pregnancy in reducing risk of developing gestational hypertensive disorders: a meta-analysis of studies from developing countries

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hypertension in pregnancy stand alone or with proteinuria is one of the leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity in the world. Epidemiological and clinical studies have shown that an inverse relationship exists between calcium intake and development of hypertension in pregnancy though the effect varies based on baseline calcium intake and pre-existing risk factors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate preventive effect of calcium supplementation during pregnancy on gestational hypertensive disorders and related maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries. Methods A literature search was carried out on PubMed, Cochrane Library and WHO regional databases. Data were extracted into a standardized excel sheet. Identified studies were graded based on strengths and limitations of studies. All the included studies were from developing countries. Meta-analyses were generated where data were available from more than one study for an outcome. Primary outcomes were maternal mortality, eclampsia, pre-eclampsia, and severe preeclampsia. Neonatal outcomes like neonatal mortality, preterm birth, small for gestational age and low birth weight were also evaluated. We followed standardized guidelines of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) to generate estimates of effectiveness of calcium supplementation during pregnancy in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries, for inclusion in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Results Data from 10 randomized controlled trials were included in this review. Pooled analysis showed that calcium supplementation during pregnancy was associated with a significant reduction of 45% in risk of gestational hypertension [Relative risk (RR) 0.55; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.85] and 59% in the risk of pre-eclampsia [RR 0.41; 95 % CI 0.24-0.69] in developing countries. Calcium supplementation during pregnancy was also associated with a significant reduction in neonatal mortality [RR 0.70; 95 % CI 0.56-0.88] and risk of pre-term birth [RR 0.88, 95 % CI 0.78-0.99]. Recommendations for LiST for reduction in maternal mortality were based on risk reduction in gestational hypertensive related severe morbidity/mortality [RR 0.80; 95% CI 0.70-0.91] and that for neonatal mortality were based on risk reduction in all-cause neonatal mortality [RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.56-0.88]. Conclusion Calcium supplementation during pregnancy is associated with a reduction in risk of gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia neonatal mortality and pre-term birth in developing countries. PMID:21501435

Assessing university students' self-efficacy to employ alcohol-related harm reduction strategies.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Harold; Bonar, Erin E; Hoffmann, Erica; Kryszak, Elizabeth; Young, Kathleen M; Kraus, Shane W; Ashrafioun, Lisham; Bannon, Erin E; Pavlick, Michelle

2011-01-01

Develop and evaluate key psychometric properties of a self-report questionnaire specifically designed to assess student drinkers' self-confidence to employ a variety of strategies intended to reduce unhealthy consequences of high-risk drinking. Four hundred ninety-eight participants rated their confidence (from "not at all confident" to "completely confident") to employ 17 harm reduction strategies when drinking. Factor analysis and internal consistency reliability analyses indicated that the 17 items constitute a single scale with good test-retest reliability. Consistent with other research examining previous use of such strategies, women in our sample reported significantly higher harm reduction self-efficacy than did men. Harm reduction self-efficacy was also associated with reported number of high-risk drinking episodes in the previous 2 weeks. This brief and easily administered questionnaire holds promise as a clinical tool to identify individuals with low harm reduction self-efficacy and as an outcome measure for health promotion and educational interventions.

Association between age-related reductions in testosterone and risk of prostate cancer-An analysis of patients' data with prostatic diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Kai; Chen, Xinguang; Bird, Victoria Y; Gerke, Travis A; Manini, Todd M; Prosperi, Mattia

2017-11-01

The relationship between serum total testosterone and prostate cancer (PCa) risk is controversial. The hypothesis that faster age-related reduction in testosterone is linked with increased PCa risk remains untested. We conducted our study at a tertiary-level hospital in southeast of the USA, and derived data from the Medical Registry Database of individuals that were diagnosed of any prostate-related disease from 2001 to 2015. Cases were those diagnosed of PCa and had one or more measurements of testosterone prior to PCa diagnosis. Controls were those without PCa and had one or more testosterone measurements. Multivariable logistic regression models for PCa risk of absolute levels (one-time measure and 5-year average) and annual change in testosterone were respectively constructed. Among a total of 1,559 patients, 217 were PCa cases, and neither one-time measure nor 5-year average of testosterone was found to be significantly associated with PCa risk. Among the 379 patients with two or more testosterone measurements, 27 were PCa cases. For every 10 ng/dL increment in annual reduction of testosterone, the risk of PCa would increase by 14% [adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.25]. Compared to patients with a relatively stable testosterone, patients with an annual testosterone reduction of more than 30 ng/dL had 5.03 [95% CI: 1.53, 16.55] fold increase in PCa risk. This implies a faster age-related reduction in, but not absolute level of serum total testosterone as a risk factor for PCa. Further longitudinal studies are needed to confirm this finding. © 2017 UICC.

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

Geographic exposure risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in US blood donors: a risk-ranking model to evaluate alternative donor-deferral policies.

PubMed

Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A

2017-04-01

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.

A critical analysis of the South African Disaster Management Act and Policy Framework.

PubMed

van Niekerk, Dewald

2014-10-01

The promulgation of the South African Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Policy Framework of 2005 placed South Africa at the international forefront by integrating disaster risk reduction into all spheres of government through a decentralised approach. Yet, good policy and legislation do not necessarily translate into good practice. This paper provides a critical analysis of the Act and Policy Framework. Using qualitative research methods, it analyses the attitudes and perceptions of senior public officials on all levels of government, the private sector and academia. The study finds that one of the weakest aspects of the Act and Framework is the absence of clear guidance to local municipalities. The placement of the disaster risk management function on all tiers of government remains problematic, funding is inadequate and overall knowledge and capacities for disaster risk reduction are insufficient. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Psycho-Cultural Analysis of Disaster Risk Attitudes in Situation Awareness

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

the American Geophysical Union called for greater resilience in facing such hazards which would curb damages and economic losses (Lewis, 2012). Most of...Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. Rugby , UK: Practical Action Publishing, ISBN 978-1-85339-786-8. UNISDR (2009). Terminology on Disaster Risk

Retest of a Principal Components Analysis of Two Household Environmental Risk Instruments.

PubMed

Oneal, Gail A; Postma, Julie; Odom-Maryon, Tamara; Butterfield, Patricia

2016-08-01

Household Risk Perception (HRP) and Self-Efficacy in Environmental Risk Reduction (SEERR) instruments were developed for a public health nurse-delivered intervention designed to reduce home-based, environmental health risks among rural, low-income families. The purpose of this study was to test both instruments in a second low-income population that differed geographically and economically from the original sample. Participants (N = 199) were recruited from the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program. Paper and pencil surveys were collected at WIC sites by research-trained student nurses. Exploratory principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted, and comparisons were made to the original PCA for the purpose of data reduction. Instruments showed satisfactory Cronbach alpha values for all components. HRP components were reduced from five to four, which explained 70% of variance. The components were labeled sensed risks, unseen risks, severity of risks, and knowledge. In contrast to the original testing, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) items was not a separate component of the HRP. The SEERR analysis demonstrated four components explaining 71% of variance, with similar patterns of items as in the first study, including a component on ETS, but some differences in item location. Although low-income populations constituted both samples, differences in demographics and risk exposures may have played a role in component and item locations. Findings provided justification for changing or reducing items, and for tailoring the instruments to population-level risks and behaviors. Although analytic refinement will continue, both instruments advance the measurement of environmental health risk perception and self-efficacy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The use of retrievable inferior vena cava filters in pregnancy: Another successful case report, but are we actually making a difference?

PubMed

Du Plessis, Lodewyk E; Mol, Ben W; Svigos, John M

2016-09-01

Pregnant women with venous thromboembolism are traditionally managed with anticoagulation, but inferior vena cava filters are an alternative. We balanced risks and benefits of an inferior vena cava filter in a decision analysis. We constructed a decision model to compare in pregnant women with VTE the outcome of (1) inferior vena cava filter and anticoagulant treatment versus (2) anticoagulant treatment only. Assuming a 63% risk reduction from an inferior vena cava filter (baseline mortality rate of venous thromboembolism of 0.5%), 318 women would need to be treated with inferior vena cava filters to prevent one venous thromboembolism related maternal death. Sensitivity analyses indicated that at a mortality rate of 0.5% the risk reduction from inferior vena cava filters needed to be 80%, while at a mortality rate of 2% a risk reduction of 20% would justify inferior vena cava filters. In view of their potential morbidity, inferior vena cava filters should be restricted to pregnant woman at strongly increased risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism.

Soy and isoflavone consumption and risk of gastrointestinal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tse, Genevieve; Eslick, Guy D

2016-02-01

Evidence suggests that soy foods have chemoprotective properties that may reduce the risk of certain cancers such as breast and prostate cancer. However, data involving gastrointestinal (GI) have been limited, and the evidence remains controversial. This study aims to determine the potential relationship between dietary soy intake and GI cancer risk with an evaluation of the effects of isoflavone as an active soy constituent. Relevant studies were identified after literature search via electronic databases through May 2014. Subgroup analysis for isoflavone intake (studies n = 10) was performed. Covariants including gender types, anatomical subsites and preparation methods were also evaluated. Pooled adjusted odds ratios (ORs) comparing highest and lowest categories of dietary pattern scores were calculated using a random effects model. Twenty-two case-control and 18 cohort studies were included for meta-analysis, which contained a total of 633,476 participants and 13,639 GI cancer cases. The combined OR was calculated as 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.99; p value heterogeneity = 0.01), showing only a slight decrease in risk, the association was stronger for colon cancer (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.96-0.99; p value heterogeneity = 0.163) and colorectal cancer (CRC) (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.97; p value heterogeneity = 0.3). Subgroup analysis for isoflavone intake showed a statistically significant risk reduction with a risk estimate of 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.92; p value heterogeneity = 0), and particularly for CRC (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.98; p value heterogeneity = 0). This study provides evidence that soy intake as a food group is only associated with a small reduction in GI cancer risk. Separate analysis for dietary isoflavone intakes suggests a stronger inverse association.

Political Culture and Risk Analysis: An Outline of Somalia, Tunisia, and Libya

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-21

analysis, risk assessment, national maturity, independence move- ments, extremists, national violence , Africa, Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, Tunisia...changed in terms of actors, but not in any appreciable reduction of violence . In the north, any episodes of conflict were negligible in scale and...duration, never approaching that of the south. The continuous violence in the south, in fact, is unprecedented in Somali history.21 Despite any

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

2007-01-01

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

Skin cancer and inorganic arsenic: uncertainty-status of risk.

PubMed

Brown, K G; Guo, H R; Kuo, T L; Greene, H L

1997-02-01

The current U.S. EPA standard for inorganic arsenic in drinking water is 50 ppb (microgram/L), dating to the National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulation of 1976. The current EPA risk analysis predicts an increased lifetime skin cancer risk on the order of 3 or 4 per 1000 from chronic exposure at that concentration. Revision of the standard to only a few ppb, perhaps even less than 1 ppb, may be indicated by the EPA analysis to reduce the lifetime risk to an acceptable level. The cost to water utilities, and ultimately to their consumers, to conform to such a large reduction in the standard could easily reach several billion dollars, so it is particularly important to assess accurately the current risk and the risk reduction that would be achieved by a lower standard. This article addresses the major sources of uncertainty in the EPA analysis with respect to this objective. Specifically, it focuses on uncertainty and variability in the exposure estimates for the landmark study of Tseng and colleagues in Taiwan, analyzed using a reconstruction of the their exposure data. It is concluded that while the available dataset is suitable to establish the hazard of skin cancer, it is too highly summarized for reliable dose-response assessment. A new epidemiologic study is needed, designed for the requirements of dose-response assessment.

“We as Drug Addicts Need that Program”: Insight from Rural African American Cocaine Users on Designing a Sexual Risk Reduction Intervention for Their Community

PubMed Central

Montgomery, Brooke E. E.; Stewart, Katharine E.; Wright, Patricia B.; McSweeney, Jean; Booth, Brenda M.

2013-01-01

This focused ethnographic study examines data collected in 2007 from four gender- and age-specific focus groups (FGs) (N = 31) to inform the development of a sexual risk reduction intervention for African American cocaine users in rural Arkansas. A semi-structured protocol was used to guide audio-recorded FGs. Data were entered into Ethnograph and analyzed using constant comparison and content analysis. Four codes with accompanying factors emerged from the data and revealed recommendations for sexual risk reduction interventions with similar populations. Intervention design implications and challenges, study limitations, and future research are discussed. The study was supported by funds from the National Institute of Nursing Research (P20 NR009006-01) and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (1R01DA024575-01 and F31 DA026286-01). PMID:22216991

Association between open or closed reduction and avascular necrosis in developmental dysplasia of the hip

PubMed Central

Wang, Ya-Jie; Yang, Fan; Wu, Qi-Jun; Pan, Shi-Nong; Li, Lian-Yong

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: The risk of avascular necrosis of the femoral head (AVN) after treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip is associated with the method of reduction. Some authors have suggested that open reduction is a risk factor for AVN; however, this is controversial. To our knowledge, a quantitative comparison of the incidence of AVN between closed and open reduction has not been conducted. Methods: Published studies were identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to May, 2015, focusing on the incidence of AVN after closed or open reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip in children aged <3 years. Patients were age-matched who were treated by either closed or open reduction, but without pelvic or femoral osteotomy. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and abstracted data. Discrepancies were discussed and resolved by consensus. We pooled the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) from individual studies using a random-effects model and evaluated heterogeneity and publication bias. Results: Nine retrospective studies were included in this analysis. The pooled OR for comparing open reduction with closed reduction for all grades of AVN was 2.26 (95%CI = 1.21–4.22), with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 44.7%, P = 0.107). The pooled OR for grades II to IV AVN was 2.46 (95%CI = 0.93–6.51), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 69.6%, P = 0.003). A significant association was also found for the further surgery between open and closed reduction, with a pooled OR of 0.30 (95%CI = 0.15–0.60) and moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 46.4%, P = 0.133). No evidence of publication bias or significant heterogeneity between subgroups was detected by meta-regression analyses. Conclusion: Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that open reduction is a risk factor for the development of AVN compared with closed treatment. Future studies are warranted to investigate how open reduction combined with pelvis and/or femoral osteotomy affects the incidence of AVN. PMID:27442664

Landmark Trials | Division of Cancer Prevention

Cancer.gov

The studies listed below represent the first major clinical trials to evaluate risk reduction for people at high risk of breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, ovarian, cervical, and lung cancer. Analysis of the data gathered from these large trials continues to contribute valuable understanding about related issues, including screening, patient-reported symptoms, quality of

Bezafibrate for the treatment of dyslipidemia in patients with coronary artery disease: 20-year mortality follow-up of the BIP randomized control trial.

PubMed

Arbel, Yaron; Klempfner, Robert; Erez, Aharon; Goldenberg, Ilan; Benzekry, Sagit; Shlomo, Nir; Fisman, Enrique Z; Tenenbaum, Alexander

2016-01-22

Recent data support the renewed interest in hypertriglyceridemia as a possible important therapeutic target for cardiovascular risk reduction. This study was designed to address the question of all-cause mortality during extended follow-up of the BIP trial in patients stratified by baseline triglyceride levels. In the BIP trial 3090 patients with proven coronary artery disease were randomized to bezafibrate 400 mg/day or placebo. All-cause mortality data after 20 years of follow-up, were obtained from the National Israeli Population Registry. Patients with hypertriglyceridemia (triglycerides ≥200 mg/dL, n = 458) were equally distributed among the study groups (15 % in both placebo and bezafibrate groups). During follow-up 1869 patients died (952 in placebo vs. 917 in bezafibrate group). Following multivariate adjustment allocation to bezafibrate was associated with small but significant 10 % mortality risk reduction (HR 0.90; 95 % CI 0.82-0.98, p = 0.026). Variables associated with significantly increased mortality risk were history of a past MI, NYHA class, diabetes, age, higher BMI and glucose level. In patients with hypertriglyceridemia multivariate analysis demonstrated a 25 % all-cause mortality risk reduction associated with allocation to bezafibrate (HR 0.75, CI 95 % 0.60-0.94; p = 0.012). In patients without hypertriglyceridemia bezafibrate had no significant effect on long-term mortality. During long-term follow-up bezafibrate-allocated patients experienced a modest but significant 10 % reduction in the adjusted risk of mortality. This effect of bezafibrate was more prominent among patients with baseline hypertriglyceridemia (25 % mortality risk reduction).

Effect of the antimicrobial photodynamic therapy on microorganism reduction in deep caries lesions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ornellas, Pâmela Oliveira; Antunes, Leonardo Dos Santos; Fontes, Karla Bianca Fernandes da Costa; Póvoa, Helvécio Cardoso Corrêa; Küchler, Erika Calvano; Iorio, Natalia Lopes Pontes; Antunes, Lívia Azeredo Alves

2016-09-01

This study aimed to perform a systematic review to assess the effectiveness of antimicrobial photodynamic therapy (aPDT) in the reduction of microorganisms in deep carious lesions. An electronic search was conducted in Pubmed, Web of Science, Scopus, Lilacs, and Cochrane Library, followed by a manual search. The MeSH terms, MeSH synonyms, related terms, and free terms were used in the search. As eligibility criteria, only clinical studies were included. Initially, 227 articles were identified in the electronic search, and 152 studies remained after analysis and exclusion of the duplicated studies; 6 remained after application of the eligibility criteria; and 3 additional studies were found in the manual search. After access to the full articles, three were excluded, leaving six for evaluation by the criteria of the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias. Of these, five had some risk of punctuated bias. All results from the selected studies showed a significant reduction of microorganisms in deep carious lesions for both primary and permanent teeth. The meta-analysis demonstrated a significant reduction in microorganism counts in all analyses (p<0.00001). Based on these findings, there is scientific evidence emphasizing the effectiveness of aPDT in reducing microorganisms in deep carious lesions.

Effect of the antimicrobial photodynamic therapy on microorganism reduction in deep caries lesions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ornellas, Pâmela Oliveira; Antunes, Leonardo Santos; Fontes, Karla Bianca Fernandes da Costa; Póvoa, Helvécio Cardoso Corrêa; Küchler, Erika Calvano; Iorio, Natalia Lopes Pontes; Antunes, Lívia Azeredo Alves

2016-09-01

This study aimed to perform a systematic review to assess the effectiveness of antimicrobial photodynamic therapy (aPDT) in the reduction of microorganisms in deep carious lesions. An electronic search was conducted in Pubmed, Web of Science, Scopus, Lilacs, and Cochrane Library, followed by a manual search. The MeSH terms, MeSH synonyms, related terms, and free terms were used in the search. As eligibility criteria, only clinical studies were included. Initially, 227 articles were identified in the electronic search, and 152 studies remained after analysis and exclusion of the duplicated studies; 6 remained after application of the eligibility criteria; and 3 additional studies were found in the manual search. After access to the full articles, three were excluded, leaving six for evaluation by the criteria of the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias. Of these, five had some risk of punctuated bias. All results from the selected studies showed a significant reduction of microorganisms in deep carious lesions for both primary and permanent teeth. The meta-analysis demonstrated a significant reduction in microorganism counts in all analyses (p<0.00001). Based on these findings, there is scientific evidence emphasizing the effectiveness of aPDT in reducing microorganisms in deep carious lesions.

Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergion, Viktor; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Åström, Johan; Lindhe, Andreas; Sörén, Kaisa; Rosén, Lars

2017-01-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases are of great concern to drinking water producers and can give rise to substantial costs to the society. The World Health Organisation promotes an approach where the emphasis is on mitigating risks close to the contamination source. In order to handle microbial risks efficiently, there is a need for systematic risk management. In this paper we present a framework for microbial risk management of drinking water systems. The framework incorporates cost-benefit analysis as a decision support method. The hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was set up for the Stäket catchment area in Sweden, was used to simulate the effects of four different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. The modelling results showed that the two mitigation measures that resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) reduction of Cryptosporidium spp. and Escherichia coli concentrations were a vegetative filter strip linked to cropland and improved treatment (by one Log10 unit) at the wastewater treatment plants. The mitigation measure with a vegetative filter strip linked to grazing areas resulted in a significant reduction of Cryptosporidium spp., but not of E. coli concentrations. The mitigation measure with enhancing the removal efficiency of all on-site wastewater treatment systems (total removal of 2 Log10 units) did not achieve any significant reduction of E. coli or Cryptosporidium spp. concentrations. The SWAT model was useful when characterising the effect of different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. Hydrological modelling implemented within an appropriate risk management framework is a key decision support element as it identifies the most efficient alternative for microbial risk reduction.

Prevention of groin injuries in sports: a systematic review with meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Esteve, E; Rathleff, M S; Bagur-Calafat, C; Urrútia, G; Thorborg, K

2015-06-01

Groin injuries are common in football and ice hockey, and previous groin injury is a strong risk factor for future groin injuries, which calls for primary prevention. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the effect of specific groin-injury prevention programmes in sports. A comprehensive search was performed in May 2014 yielding 1747 potentially relevant references. Two independent assessors evaluated randomised controlled trials for inclusion, extracted data and performed quality assessments using Cochrane's risk of bias tool. Quantitative analyses were performed in Review Manager 5.3. Seven trials were included: six on football players (four male and two female populations) and one on male handball players. In total there were 4191 participants with a total of 157 injuries. The primary analysis, including all participants, did not show a significant reduction in the number of groin injuries after completing a groin injury prevention programme (relative risk (RR) 0.81; 95% CI 0.60 to 1.09). Subgroup analysis based on type of sports, gender and type of prevention programme showed similar non-significant estimates with RR ranging from 0.48 to 0.81. Meta-analysis revealed a potential clinically meaningful groin injury reduction of 19%, even though no statistical significant reduction in sport-related groin injuries could be documented. PROSPERO registration ID CRD42014009614. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL) and Probable Maximum Losses (PML) in GAR 2013 and GAR 2015. In parallel similar methodologies were developed to highlitght the role of ecosystems for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). New developments may include slow hazards (such as e.g. soil degradation and droughts), natech hazards (by intersecting with georeferenced critical infrastructures) The various global hazard, exposure and risk models can be visualized and download through the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform.

In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klijn, F.; Knoop, J. M.; Ligtvoet, W.; Mens, M. J. P.

2012-05-01

The Netherlands' policy for flood risk management is being revised in view of a sustainable development against a background of climate change, sea level rise and increasing socio-economic vulnerability to floods. This calls for a thorough policy analysis, which can only be adequate when there is agreement about the "framing" of the problem and about the strategic alternatives that should be taken into account. In support of this framing, we performed an exploratory policy analysis, applying future climate and socio-economic scenarios to account for the autonomous development of flood risks, and defined a number of different strategic alternatives for flood risk management at the national level. These alternatives, ranging from flood protection by brute force to reduction of the vulnerability by spatial planning only, were compared with continuation of the current policy on a number of criteria, comprising costs, the reduction of fatality risk and economic risk, and their robustness in relation to uncertainties. We found that a change of policy away from conventional embankments towards gaining control over the flooding process by making the embankments unbreachable is attractive. By thus influencing exposure to flooding, the fatality risk can be effectively reduced at even lower net societal costs than by continuation of the present policy or by raising the protection standards where cost-effective.

Tobacco Smoke–Related Health Effects Induced by 1,3-Butadiene and Strategies for Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G.

2013-01-01

1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a smoke component selected by the World Health Organization (WHO) study group on Tobacco Product Regulation (TobReg) for mandated lowering. We examined the tobacco smoke–related health effects induced by BD and possible health impacts of risk reduction strategies. BD levels in mainstream smoke (MSS) from international and Canadian cigarettes and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) were derived from scientific journals and international government reports. Dose-response analyses from toxicity studies from government reports were evaluated and the most sensitive cancer and noncancer endpoints were selected. The risks were evaluated by taking the ratio (margin of exposure, MOE) from the most sensitive toxicity endpoint and appropriate exposure estimates for BD in MSS and ETS. BD is a good choice for lowering given that MSS and ETS were at levels for cancer (leukemia) and noncancer (ovarian atrophy) risks, and the risks can be significantly lowered when lowering the BD concentrations in smoke. Several risk reduction strategies were analyzed including a maximum level of 125% of the median BD value per milligram nicotine obtained from international brands as recommended by the WHO TobReg, tobacco substitute sheets, dual and triple carbon filters, and polymer-derived carbon. The use of tobacco substitute sheet with a polymer-derived carbon filter resulted in the most significant change in risk for cancer and noncancer effects. Our results demonstrate that MOE analysis might be a practical way to assess the impact of risk reduction strategies on human health in the future. PMID:24014643

Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

2017-12-01

Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological, geomorphological settings and ground observations from field trips. The development of NextGEOSS pilots opens up for interactions with international communities. Contributions from communities engaged in SDG activities and the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction are welcome

Effectiveness of a national cardiovascular disease risk assessment program (NHS Health Check): results after one year.

PubMed

Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher

2013-08-01

We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Apel, Heiko; Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Bubeck, Philip; Caloiero, Tommaso; Chinh, Do T.; Cortès, Maria; Gain, Animesh K.; Giampá, Vincenzo; Kuhlicke, Christian; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Mârd, Johanna; Matczak, Piotr; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Molinari, Daniela; Dung, Nguyen V.; Petrucci, Olga; Schröter, Kai; Slager, Kymo; Thieken, Annegret H.; Ward, Philip J.; Merz, Bruno

2017-10-01

As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.

The effect of N-acetylcysteine on the incidence of contrast-induced kidney injury: A systematic review and trial sequential analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Nelson; Qian, Pierre; Kumar, Shejil; Yan, Tristan D; Phan, Kevin

2016-04-15

There have been a myriad of studies investigating the effectiveness of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) in the prevention of contrast induced nephropathy (CIN) in patients undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) with or without percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However the consensus is still out about the effectiveness of NAC pre-treatment due to vastly mixed results amongst the literature. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis to determine the effects of pre-operative NAC in lowering the incidence of CIN in patients undergoing CAG and/or PCI. A systematic literature search was performed to include all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing NAC versus control as pretreatment for CAG and/or PCI. A traditional meta-analysis and several subgroup analyses were conducted using traditional meta-analysis with relative risk (RR), trial sequential analysis, and meta-regression analysis. 43 RCTs met our inclusion criteria giving a total of 3277 patients in both control and treatment arms. There was a significant reduction in the risk of CIN in the NAC treated group compared to control (OR 0.666; 95% CI, 0.532-0.834; I2=40.11%; p=0.004). Trial sequential analysis, using a relative risk reduction threshold of 15%, indicates that the evidence is firm. The results of the present paper support the use of NAC in the prevention of CIN in patients undergoing CAG±PCI. Future studies should focus on the benefits of NAC amongst subgroups of high-risk patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of drinking water treatment for virus risk assessment.

PubMed

Teunis, P F M; Rutjes, S A; Westrell, T; de Roda Husman, A M

2009-02-01

Removal or inactivation of viruses in drinking water treatment processes can be quantified by measuring the concentrations of viruses or virus indicators in water before and after treatment. Virus reduction is then calculated from the ratio of these concentrations. Most often only the average reduction is reported. That is not sufficient when treatment efficiency must be characterized in quantitative risk assessment. We present three simple models allowing statistical analysis of series of counts before and after treatment: distribution of the ratio of concentrations, and distribution of the probability of passage for unpaired and paired water samples. Performance of these models is demonstrated for several processes (long and short term storage, coagulation/filtration, coagulation/sedimentation, slow sand filtration, membrane filtration, and ozone disinfection) using microbial indicator data from full-scale treatment processes. All three models allow estimation of the variation in (log) reduction as well as its uncertainty; the results can be easily used in risk assessment. Although they have different characteristics and are present in vastly different concentrations, different viruses and/or bacteriophages appear to show similar reductions in a particular treatment process, allowing generalization of the reduction for each process type across virus groups. The processes characterized in this paper may be used as reference for waterborne virus risk assessment, to check against location specific data, and in case no such data are available, to use as defaults.

Examining the Efficacy of HIV Risk-Reduction Counseling on the Sexual Risk Behaviors of a National Sample of Drug Abuse Treatment Clients: Analysis of Subgroups

PubMed Central

Metsch, Lisa R.; Pereyra, Margaret R.; Malotte, C. Kevin; Haynes, Louise F.; Douaihy, Antoine; Chally, Jack; Mandler, Raul N.; Feaster, Daniel J.

2016-01-01

HIV counseling with testing has been part of HIV prevention in the U.S. since the 1980s. Despite the long-standing history of HIV testing with prevention counseling, the CDC released HIV testing recommendations for health care settings contesting benefits of prevention counseling with testing in reducing sexual risk behaviors among HIV-negatives in 2006. Efficacy of brief HIV risk-reduction counseling (RRC) in decreasing sexual risk among subgroups of substance use treatment clients was examined using multisite RCT data. Interaction tests between RRC and subgroups were performed; multivariable regression evaluated the relationship between RRC (with rapid testing) and sex risk. Subgroups were defined by demographics, risk type and level, attitudes/perceptions, and behavioral history. There was an effect (p < .0028) of counseling on number of sex partners among some subgroups. Certain subgroups may benefit from HIV RRC; this should be examined in studies with larger sample sizes, designed to assess the specific subgroup(s). PMID:26837631

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

A PARENT–ADOLESCENT INTERVENTION TO INCREASE SEXUAL RISK COMMUNICATION: RESULTS OF A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL

PubMed Central

Villarruel, Antonia M.; Cherry, Carol Loveland; Cabriales, Esther Gallegos; Ronis, David L.; Zhou, Yan

2009-01-01

This article reports results of a randomized controlled trial designed to test an intervention to increase parent–adolescent sexual risk communication among Mexican parents. Data were analyzed from parents (n = 791) randomly assigned to an HTV risk reduction or health promotion intervention. Measures were administered at pretest, posttest, and 6– and 12–month follow–ups. Generalized estimation equation (GEE) analysis indicates parents in the HIV risk reduction intervention reported significantly more general communication (p < .005), more sexual risk communication (p < .001) and more comfort with communication (p < .001) than parents in the control intervention. Behavioral, normative, and control beliefs significantly mediated the effect of the intervention on all communication outcomes. This study demonstrates the efficacy of an intervention to increase the quality and quantity of parent–adolescent communication related to general and sex–specific communication. PMID:18956979

Nonlinear reduction in risk for colorectal cancer by fruit and vegetable intake based on meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Aune, Dagfinn; Lau, Rosa; Chan, Doris S M; Vieira, Rui; Greenwood, Darren C; Kampman, Ellen; Norat, Teresa

2011-07-01

The association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk has been investigated by many studies but is controversial because of inconsistent results and weak observed associations. We summarized the evidence from cohort studies in categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response meta-analyses. We searched PubMed for studies of fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk that were published until the end of May 2010. We included 19 prospective studies that reported relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer-associated with fruit and vegetable intake. Random effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks. The summary relative risk for the highest vs the lowest intake was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.99) for fruit and vegetables combined, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83-0.98) for fruit, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86-0.96) for vegetables (P for heterogeneity=.24, .05, and .54, respectively). The inverse associations appeared to be restricted to colon cancer. In linear dose-response analysis, only intake of vegetables was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk (summary relative risk=0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), per 100 g/d. However, significant inverse associations emerged in nonlinear models for fruits (Pnonlinearity<.001) and vegetables (Pnonlinearity=.001). The greatest risk reduction was observed when intake increased from very low levels of intake. There was generally little evidence of heterogeneity in the analyses and there was no evidence of small-study bias. Based on meta-analysis of prospective studies, there is a weak but statistically significant nonlinear inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specific types of alcoholic beverage consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Jin; Wang, Xiuling; Zhang, Yadong

2017-01-01

Previous meta-analyses identified an inverse association of total alcohol consumption with the risk of type 2 diabetes. The current study further explored the relationship between specific types of alcoholic beverage and the incidence of type 2 diabetes. A search of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases from January 1966 to February 2016 was carried out for prospective cohort studies that assessed the effects of specific types of alcoholic beverage on the risk of type 2 diabetes. The pooled relative risks with 95% confidence interval were calculated using random- or fixed-effect models when appropriate. A total of 13 prospective studies were included in this meta-analysis, with 397,296 study participants and 20,641 cases of type 2 diabetes. Relative to no or rare alcohol consumption, wine consumption was associated with a significant reduction of the risk of type 2 diabetes, with the pooled relative risks of 0.85, whereas beer or spirits consumption led to a slight trend of decreasing risk of type 2 diabetes (relative risk 0.96, 0.95, respectively). Further dose-response analysis showed a U-shaped relationship between all three alcohol types and type 2 diabetes. Additionally, the peak risk reduction emerged at 20-30 g/day for wine and beer, and at 7-15 g/day for spirits, with a decrease of 20, 9 and 5%, respectively. Compared with beer or spirits, wine was associated with a more significant decreased risk of type 2 diabetes. The present study showed that wine might be more helpful for protection against type 2 diabetes than beer or spirits. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Optimal linear and nonlinear feature extraction based on the minimization of the increased risk of misclassification. [Bayes theorem - statistical analysis/data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Defigueiredo, R. J. P.

1974-01-01

General classes of nonlinear and linear transformations were investigated for the reduction of the dimensionality of the classification (feature) space so that, for a prescribed dimension m of this space, the increase of the misclassification risk is minimized.

Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

PubMed

Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

2010-01-01

The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

Proposing a Universal Framework for Resilience: Optimizing Risk and Combating Human Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Arunima

2017-04-01

In the recent years we have seen a massive impact of loss created to urban settlements and critical infrastructure as a result of disasters. The disaster risk associates itself vulnerabilities and many complexities which can disrupt the functioning of human society. The uncertain loss created by disasters can present unforeseeable risk which remain unaccounted to human understanding. It is imperative to note that human urbanization and development is correlated with human vulnerabilities and challenges posed by disasters. Disaster risks are aggravated by improper planning of cities, weak framework for urban governance and regulatory regimes and lack of equalities amongst the citizens. The international agenda on disaster risk reduction talks about increasing losses due to disasters associated with development and urbanization. The United Nations announced that the year 1990 was the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. In relation to this, the "Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action" was adopted at the first United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission coordinated the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005 where the Hyogo Framework for Action was adopted. The Hyogo Framework for Action: Building the resilience of communities to disaster was adopted by 168 nations after the massive loss caused by Indian ocean tsunami in 2005. The Hyogo Framework proposes to focus on implementation of risk and reliability system to shield disasters, proposes global scientific and community platform for disaster prevention and mitigation etc. The early warning system and its importance as an effective tool for reduction of human vulnerabilities for disaster management was majorly emphasized. It is imperative to highlight that resilience framework is important in order to minimize cost of disruption caused to critical infrastructure and to strengthen and optimize the decision making skill and platform for a better sustainable society. The resilience framework provides a cross-sector and multi-level analysis to tackle the vulnerabilities which can be caused to essential utilities like power, water, transport and various machineries that are essential for human sustainability. The direction of resilience framework focuses on prevention of damage and disruption of disaster, mitigate the loss caused to human society and provide the best response for disaster resilience. Thus, the basic pillars which are important for the implementation of resilience is proper governance framework and transparency which takes into account various cost and risk analysis. Thus a common and universal framework for resilience is the main requirement for mass accessibility. The aim of resilience framework focuses on universal adaptability, coherence and validation. A mixed method analysis has been undertaken in this research paper which focuses on the following issues: • Legal, Institutional and community framework for integrating resilience framework of global north and global south. • Spatial as well as statistical analysis to structuralize disaster risk and resilient framework for disaster management. • Early warning system and emergency response in a comparative scale to analyse the various models of risk and resilience framework implemented in USA, China, Nepal and India for proposing an integrated resilience strategy.

In-group rationalizations of risk and indoor tanning: A textual analysis of an online forum.

PubMed

Carcioppolo, Nick; Chudnovskaya, Elena V; Martinez Gonzalez, Andrea; Stephan, Tyler

2016-07-01

Unlike other health behaviors, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and reduction or cessation of indoor tanning bed use. This study seeks to address this inconsistency by determining how indoor tanning bed users rationalize skin cancer risk with their tanning behavior. Qualitative textual analysis of indoor tanning message board posts (N = 330) revealed varied perceptions of risk, including acknowledging the risk of indoor tanning; denying or downplaying risk, often citing perceived health benefits associated with tanning; blaming outside forces for cancer, such as lotion or genetics; and fatalistic beliefs about cancer. These results highlight the nuanced relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and indoor tanning bed use. © The Author(s) 2014.

Colorectal cancer risk and dietary intake of calcium, vitamin D, and dairy products: a meta-analysis of 26,335 cases from 60 observational studies.

PubMed

Huncharek, Michael; Muscat, Joshua; Kupelnick, Bruce

2009-01-01

In vivo and in vitro studies suggest that dairy products, calcium, and dietary vitamin D inhibits the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate this relationship in observational studies. Data from 60 epidemiological studies enrolling 26,335 CRC cases were pooled using a general variance-based meta-analytic method. Summary relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the highest vs. the lowest intake categories. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of these summary effect measures and the statistical heterogeneity. The summary RR for high milk and dairy product intake, respectively, on colon cancer risk was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.67-0.92) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.75-0.95). Milk intake was unrelated to rectal cancer risk. High calcium intake had a greater protective effect against tumors of the distal colon and rectal cancer vs. proximal colon. The risk reduction associated with calcium was similar for dietary and supplemental sources. Vitamin D was associated with a nonsignificant 6% reduction in CRC risk. Higher consumption of milk/dairy products reduces the risk of colon cancer, and high calcium intake reduces the risk of CRC. Low vitamin D intake in the study populations may limit the ability to detect a protective effect if one exists.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

2018-01-01

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

Gait Speed among Older Participants Enrolled in an Evidence-Based Fall Risk Reduction Program: A Subgroup Analysis.

PubMed

Cho, Jinmyoung; Smith, Matthew Lee; Shubert, Tiffany E; Jiang, Luohua; Ahn, SangNam; Ory, Marcia G

2015-01-01

Functional decline is a primary risk factor for institutionalization and mortality among older adults. Although community-based fall risk reduction programs have been widely disseminated, little is known about their impact on gait speed, a key indicator of functional performance. Changes in functional performance between baseline and post-intervention were examined by means of timed up and go (TUG), a standardized functional assessment test administered to participants enrolled in A Matter of Balance/Volunteer Lay Leader (AMOB/VLL) model, an evidence-based fall risk reduction program. This study included 71 participants enrolled in an AMOB/VLL program in the Brazos Valley and South Plain regions of Texas. Paired t-tests were employed to assess program effects on gait speed at baseline and post-intervention for all participants and by subgroups of age, sex, living status, delivery sites, and self-rated health. The Bonferroni correction was applied to adjust inflated Type I error rate associated with performing multiple t-tests, for which p-values <0.0042 (i.e., 0.5/12 comparisons) were deemed statistically significant. Overall, gait speed of enrolled participants improved from baseline to post-intervention (t = 3.22, p = 0.002). Significant changes in TUG scores were observed among participants who lived with others (t = 4.45, p < 0.001), rated their health as excellent, very good, or good (t = 3.05, p = 0.003), and attended program workshops at senior centers (t = 3.52, p = 0.003). Findings suggest community-based fall risk reduction programs can improve gait speed for older adults. More translational research is needed to understand factors related to the effectiveness of fall risk reduction programs in various populations and settings.

Aggression in Psychiatric Wards: Effect of the Use of a Structured Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Hvidhjelm, Jacob; Sestoft, Dorte; Skovgaard, Lene Theil; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Almvik, Roger; Bue Bjorner, Jakob

2016-12-01

Health care workers are often exposed to violence and aggression in psychiatric settings. Short-term risk assessments, such as the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC), are strong predictors of such aggression and may enable staff to take preventive measures against aggression. This study evaluated whether the routine use of the BVC could reduce the frequency of patient aggression. We conducted a study with a semi-random regression discontinuity design in 15 psychiatric wards. Baseline aggression risk was assessed using the Aggression Observation Short Form (AOS) over three months. The BVC was implemented in seven intervention wards, and the risk of aggressive incidents over three months of follow-up was compared with the risk in eight control wards. The analysis was conducted at the ward level because each ward was allocated to the intervention and control groups. At baseline, the risk of aggression varied between wards, from one aggressive incident per patient per 1,000 shifts to 147 aggressive incidents per patient per 1,000 shifts. The regression discontinuity analysis found a 45% reduction in the risk of aggression (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.55, 95% confidence interval: 0.21-1.43). The study did not find a significant reduction in the risk of aggression after implementing a systematic short-term risk assessment with the BVC. Although our findings suggest that use of the BVC may reduce the risk of aggression, the results need to be confirmed in studies with more statistical power.

Lateral Wedge Insoles for Reducing Biomechanical Risk Factors for Medial Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Arnold, John B; Wong, Daniel X; Jones, Richard K; Hill, Catherine L; Thewlis, Dominic

2016-07-01

Lateral wedge insoles are intended to reduce biomechanical risk factors of medial knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression, such as increased knee joint load; however, there has been no definitive consensus on this topic. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to establish the within-subject effects of lateral wedge insoles on knee joint load in people with medial knee OA during walking. Six databases were searched from inception until February 13, 2015. Included studies reported on the immediate biomechanical effects of lateral wedge insoles during walking in people with medial knee OA. Primary outcomes of interest relating to the biomechanical risk of disease progression were the first and second peak external knee adduction moment (EKAM) and knee adduction angular impulse (KAAI). Eligible studies were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Eighteen studies were included with a total of 534 participants. Lateral wedge insoles resulted in a small but statistically significant reduction in the first peak EKAM (standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.19; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] -0.23, -0.15) and second peak EKAM (SMD -0.25; 95% CI -0.32, -0.19) with a low level of heterogeneity (I(2)  = 5% and 30%, respectively). There was a favorable but small reduction in the KAAI with lateral wedge insoles (SMD -0.14; 95% CI -0.21, -0.07, I(2)  = 31%). Risk of methodologic bias scores (quality index) ranged from 8 to 13 out of 16. Lateral wedge insoles cause small reductions in the EKAM and KAAI during walking in people with medial knee OA. Current evidence demonstrates that lateral wedge insoles appear ineffective at attenuating structural changes in people with medial knee OA as a whole and may be better suited to targeted use in biomechanical phenotypes associated with larger reductions in knee load. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Life trajectories, genetic testing, and risk reduction decisions in 18–39 year old women at risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Williams, Janet K.; Bowers, Barbara J.; Calzone, Kathleen

2009-01-01

This qualitative study identified four life trajectories that influenced the decision in young women to have genetic testing for mutations in BRCA1/2 and subsequent risk reduction decisions after receiving a positive mutation result. Fifty nine women between the ages of 18–39 years were interviewed in this grounded theory study, 44 of those tested were found to have a mutation in either BRCA1 or BRCA2. Of those with a mutation, 23 had no history of cancer and 21 had a breast cancer diagnosis. Analysis of the 44 participants tested found that risk reducing decisions were related to the life trajectories that preceded genetic testing. These life trajectories included: 1) Long-standing awareness of breast cancer in the family, 2) Loss of one’s mother to breast cancer at a young age, 3) Expression of concern by a health care provider, and 4) Personal diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding possible influences behind decision making for genetic testing and risk reduction in young women may assist health care providers in offering age appropriate guidance and support. PMID:18979190

Are there effective interventions to prevent hospital-acquired Legionnaires' disease or to reduce environmental reservoirs of Legionella in hospitals? A systematic review.

PubMed

Almeida, Dejanira; Cristovam, Elisabete; Caldeira, Daniel; Ferreira, Joaquim J; Marques, Teresa

2016-11-01

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is recognized as an important hospital-acquired disease. Despite the several methods available, the optimal method to control hospital-acquired LD is not well established and their overall efficacy requires further evaluation. To systematically review all controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk of developing the disease and its effects on environmental colonization. A database search was performed through PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (inception-November 2014). Eligible studies included all controlled studies evaluating interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk or evaluating the effect on environmental colonization. Both individual and pooled risk estimates were reported using risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). There were no studies evaluating the risk reduction in hospital-acquired LD, but 4 studies evaluated the influence of copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light in the reduction of environmental reservoirs of Legionella. The meta-analysis showed a significant 95% risk reduction of Legionella positivity in environmental samples using copper-silver ionization (RR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01-0.17) and 97% risk reduction with ultraviolet light (RR, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.002-0.41). The best available evidence suggests that copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light are effective in reducing Legionella positivity in environmental samples. Nevertheless, the low quality of evidence weakens the robustness of conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carrier air wing mishap reduction using a human factors classification system and risk management.

PubMed

Belland, Kxis M; Olsen, Cara; Lawry, Russell

2010-11-01

In 1998, the Navy's center of excellence for advanced air wing combat operations, namely the Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC), had a spike in Class A flight mishaps. The spike triggered an intense review of prior mishaps and current mishap-reduction practices using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The review resulted in NSAWC instituting a comprehensive multifactorial mishap reduction plan applying Operational Risk Management (ORM) precepts. This is a nonrandomized investigational study with use of a historical comparison population. The Class A mishap rate per flight hour covering 10 yr prior to the mishap reduction efforts was estimated and compared to the Class A mishap rate per flight hour for the 10 yr after implementation using Poisson regression. Combined Fleet and NSAWC data shows a 27% reduction in mishap rate, but the 21% reduction in the Fleet alone was not statistically significant. The mishap reduction at NSAWC was statistically significant with an 84% reduction. Fallon carrier air wing mishap rates post-ORM mishap reduction efforts are approaching those seen in the Fleet, but are still elevated overall (3.7 vs. 2.4). The incidence rate ratio was 80% lower at Fallon than the rest of the Fleet, indicating a significantly greater reduction in NSAWC air wing mishaps and suggests focused aviation mishap reduction efforts in similar circumstances could result in similar reductions.

Risky sexual behaviors of adolescents in rural Malawi: evidence from focus groups.

PubMed

Dancy, Barbara L; Kaponda, Chrissie P N; Kachingwe, Sitingawawo I; Norr, Kathleen F

2006-07-01

Little is known about rural Malawian adolescents' perceptions of their sexual behavior and what would constitute an effective HIV risk-reduction program. This study explored the perceptions of Malawain adolescents using qualitative description research with focus groups. A purposive sample of 144 adolescents, ranging from 10 to 19 years of age was obtained. Subjects were then placed in focus groups separated by gender Qualitative content analysis revealed that adolescents were at risk for HIV based on the select behaviors These included early sexual debut, multiple partners, non-use of condoms and among girls older partners These adolescents acknowledged peer pressure and lack of parental supervision as factors that perpetuated these behaviors and identified two components of HIV prevention programs. For example, parental involvement and support for sexual abstinence were among the issues discussed. It is essential that HIV risk-reduction programs create ways of involving parents and of enhancing adolescents' HIV risk-reduction skills by helping them to change peer norms and to develop negotiation and assertiveness skills to in order to resist peer pressure.

Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards.

PubMed

Hagenlocher, Michael; Renaud, Fabrice G; Haas, Susanne; Sebesvari, Zita

2018-08-01

Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Polygenic Risk Score Identifies Subgroup With Higher Burden of Atherosclerosis and Greater Relative Benefit From Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention Setting.

PubMed

Natarajan, Pradeep; Young, Robin; Stitziel, Nathan O; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Sartori, Samantha; Fuster, Valentin; Reilly, Dermot F; Butterworth, Adam; Rader, Daniel J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Kathiresan, Sekar

2017-05-30

Relative risk reduction with statin therapy has been consistent across nearly all subgroups studied to date. However, in analyses of 2 randomized controlled primary prevention trials (ASCOT [Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid-Lowering Arm] and JUPITER [Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin]), statin therapy led to a greater relative risk reduction among a subgroup at high genetic risk. Here, we aimed to confirm this observation in a third primary prevention randomized controlled trial. In addition, we assessed whether those at high genetic risk had a greater burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. We studied participants from a randomized controlled trial of primary prevention with statin therapy (WOSCOPS [West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study]; n=4910) and 2 observational cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults] and BioImage; n=1154 and 4392, respectively). For each participant, we calculated a polygenic risk score derived from up to 57 common DNA sequence variants previously associated with coronary heart disease. We compared the relative efficacy of statin therapy in those at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic risk score) versus all others (WOSCOPS), as well as the association between the polygenic risk score and coronary artery calcification (CARDIA) and carotid artery plaque burden (BioImage). Among WOSCOPS trial participants at high genetic risk, statin therapy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-60; P <0.001), whereas in all others, the relative risk reduction was 24% (95% CI, 8-37; P =0.004) despite similar low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering. In a study-level meta-analysis across the WOSCOPS, ASCOT, and JUPITER primary prevention, relative risk reduction in those at high genetic risk was 46% versus 26% in all others ( P for heterogeneity=0.05). Across all 3 studies, the absolute risk reduction with statin therapy was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.0-5.1) among those in the high genetic risk group and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6-1.9) in all others. Each 1-SD increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.32-fold (95% CI, 1.04-1.68) greater likelihood of having coronary artery calcification and 9.7% higher (95% CI, 2.2-17.8) burden of carotid plaque. Those at high genetic risk have a greater burden of subclinical atherosclerosis and derive greater relative and absolute benefit from statin therapy to prevent a first coronary heart disease event. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT00738725 (BioImage) and NCT00005130 (CARDIA). WOSCOPS was carried out and completed before the requirement for clinical trial registration. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

2016-08-01

The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes

PubMed Central

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-01-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2564 grade 10 students and their parents in The Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention which should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs. PMID:25490732

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-12-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

[Economic analysis versus the principle of guaranteed safety in blood transfusion].

PubMed

Moatti, J P; Loubière, S; Rotily, M

2000-06-01

This article shows that policies aimed at reducing risks of infectious agents transmissible through blood unfortunately follow a law of 'diminishing returns': increasing marginal costs have to be devoted for limited reductions in the risks of contamination through blood donations. Therefore, the economic cost-effectiveness analysis is appropriate to identify screening strategies which may minimize costs to reach a certain level of safety. Moreover, economic analysis can contribute to public debates about the level of residual risk that society is willing to accept. Empirical results from French studies about screening for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in individuals who have received blood transfusions and in blood donations are presented to illustrate these points.

Salivary cortisol levels are associated with outcomes of weight reduction therapy in obese Japanese patients.

PubMed

Himeno, Akihiro; Satoh-Asahara, Noriko; Usui, Takeshi; Wada, Hiromichi; Tochiya, Mayu; Kono, Shigeo; Yamada-Goto, Nobuko; Katsuura, Goro; Hasegawa, Koji; Nakao, Kazuwa; Shimatsu, Akira

2012-02-01

Dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the detailed relationships of HPA axis activity with weight reduction and CVD risk factors in obese patients have not been examined. This study was designed to elucidate the associations of salivary cortisol levels with weight reduction and CVD risk factors in obese patients. As a marker of HPA axis activity, we measured the morning salivary cortisol levels of 83 obese Japanese outpatients. We also examined metabolic parameters, inflammatory markers, and indicators of arterial stiffness, that is, the pulse wave velocity and cardio-ankle vascular index. All 83 obese patients underwent 3-month weight reduction therapy with lifestyle modification. At the baseline, multivariate regression analysis revealed that only logarithmic transformation of C-reactive protein (β = 0.258, P < .05) and cardio-ankle vascular index (β = 0.233, P < .05) were independent determinants of the salivary cortisol levels. However, other metabolic parameters were not significantly associated with the salivary cortisol levels. In addition, lower salivary cortisol levels and higher body weight at the baseline were the only independent determinants of successful weight loss through the weight reduction therapy (P < .01). The present study demonstrates that the baseline morning salivary cortisol levels are significantly associated with the levels of an inflammatory marker, arterial stiffness, and successful weight reduction in obese patients. Therefore, salivary cortisol could be a useful marker for assessing and managing body weight and CVD risk factors in obese patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noel, Camille E.; Gutti, VeeraRajesh; Bosch, Walter

Purpose: To quantify the potential impact of the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise–Radiation Oncology Quality Assurance with Plan Veto (QAPV) on patient safety of external beam radiation therapy (RT) operations. Methods and Materials: An institutional database of events (errors and near-misses) was used to evaluate the ability of QAPV to prevent clinically observed events. We analyzed reported events that were related to Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine RT plan parameter inconsistencies between the intended treatment (on the treatment planning system) and the delivered treatment (on the treatment machine). Critical Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine RT plan parameters were identified.more » Each event was scored for importance using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis methodology. Potential error occurrence (frequency) was derived according to the collected event data, along with the potential event severity, and the probability of detection with and without the theoretical implementation of the QAPV plan comparison check. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) with and without QAPV were compared to quantify the potential benefit of clinical implementation of QAPV. Results: The implementation of QAPV could reduce the RPN values for 15 of 22 (71%) of evaluated parameters, with an overall average reduction in RPN of 68 (range, 0-216). For the 6 high-risk parameters (>200), the average reduction in RPN value was 163 (range, 108-216). The RPN value reduction for the intermediate-risk (200 > RPN > 100) parameters was (0-140). With QAPV, the largest RPN value for “Beam Meterset” was reduced from 324 to 108. The maximum reduction in RPN value was for Beam Meterset (216, 66.7%), whereas the maximum percentage reduction was for Cumulative Meterset Weight (80, 88.9%). Conclusion: This analysis quantifies the value of the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise–Radiation Oncology QAPV implementation in clinical workflow. We demonstrate that although QAPV does not provide a comprehensive solution for error prevention in RT, it can have a significant impact on a subset of the most severe clinically observed events.« less

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Lamoureux, Christine; Molodecky, Natalie A; Lyons, Hil; Grassly, Nicholas C; Tallis, Graham

2017-05-26

The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.

Determinants of underage college student drinking: implications for four major alcohol reduction strategies.

PubMed

Paek, Hye-Jin; Hove, Thomas

2012-01-01

Guided by the assumptions of the social ecological model and the social marketing approach, this study provides a simultaneous and comprehensive assessment of 4 major alcohol reduction strategies for college campuses: school education programs, social norms campaigns, alcohol counter-marketing, and alcohol control policies. Analysis of nationally representative secondary survey data among 5,472 underage students reveals that alcohol marketing seems to be the most formidable risk factor for underage drinking, followed by perceived drinking norms (injunctive norm) and lax policy enforcement. This analysis suggests that, to make social norms campaigns and alcohol control policies more effective, alcohol reduction strategies should be developed to counter the powerful influence of alcohol marketing and promotions.

Efficacy of sacubitril/valsartan vs. enalapril at lower than target doses in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: the PARADIGM-HF trial.

PubMed

Vardeny, Orly; Claggett, Brian; Packer, Milton; Zile, Michael R; Rouleau, Jean; Swedberg, Karl; Teerlink, John R; Desai, Akshay S; Lefkowitz, Martin; Shi, Victor; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D

2016-10-01

In this analysis, we utilized data from PARADIGM-HF to test the hypothesis that participants who exhibited any dose reduction during the trial would have similar benefits from lower doses of sacubitril/valsartan relative to lower doses of enalapril. In a post-hoc analysis from PARADIGM-HF, we characterized patients by whether they received the maximal dose (200 mg sacubitril/valsartan or 10 mg enalapril twice daily) throughout the trial or had any dose reduction to lower doses (100/50/0 mg sacubitril/valsartan or 5/2.5/0 mg enalapril twice daily). The treatment effect for the primary outcome was estimated, stratified by dose level using time-updated Cox regression models. In the two treatment arms, participants with a dose reduction (43% of those randomized to enalapril and 42% of those randomized to sacubitril/valsartan) had similar baseline characteristics and similar baseline predictors of the need for dose reduction. In a time-updated analysis, any dose reduction was associated with a higher subsequent risk of the primary event [hazard ratio (HR) 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-2.7]. However, the treatment benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over enalapril following a dose reduction was similar (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.93, P < 0.001) to that observed in patients who had not experienced any dose reduction (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.71-0.88, P < 0.001). In PARADIGM-HF, study medication dose reduction identified patients at higher risk of a major cardiovascular event. The magnitude of benefit for patients on lower doses of sacubitril/valsartan relative to those on lower doses of enalapril was similar to that of patients who remained on target doses of both drugs. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. This paper presents the main components of the SDSS and the overall design and plans for the user interface.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Multi-hazard risk assessment of the Republic of Mauritius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Galli, Alberto; Amadio, Mattia; Teatini, Chiara

2013-04-01

The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a small island developing state (SIDS), part of the Mascarene Islands in West Indian Ocean, comprised by Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St. Brandon islands and several islets. ROM is exposed to many natural hazards notably cyclones, tsunamis, torrential precipitation, landslides, and droughts; and highly vulnerable sea level rise (SLR) driven by human induced climate change. The multihazard risk assessment presented in this paper is aimed at identifying the areas prone to flood, inundation and landslide hazard, and inform the development of strategy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Climate risk analysis - a central component of the analysis - is one of the first comprehensive climate modelling studies conducted for the country. Climate change may lift the temperature by 1-2 degree Celsius by 2060-2070, and increase sizably the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. According to the IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4), the expected Sea Level Rise (SLR) ranges between 16 and 49 cm. Individually or in combination, the inland flood, coastal inundation and landslide hazards affect large proportion of the country. Sea level rise and the changes in precipitation regimes will amplified existing vulnerabilities and create new ones. The paper outlines an Action plan for Disaster Risk Reduction that takes into account the likely effects of climate change. The Action Plan calls on the government to establish a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as recommended by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. It consists of nine recommendations which, if put in practice, will significantly reduce the annual damage to natural hazard and produce additional (ancillary) benefits in economic, social and environmental terms.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

PubMed Central

Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

2011-01-01

A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

Comparative cost-effectiveness of metformin-based dual therapies associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes: Evidence from a population-based national cohort in Taiwan.

PubMed

Ou, Huang-Tz; Chen, Yen-Ting; Liu, Ya-Ming; Wu, Jin-Shang

2016-06-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of metformin-based dual therapies associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a Chinese population with type 2 diabetes. We utilized Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) 1997-2011, which is derived from the claims of National Health Insurance, a mandatory-enrollment single-payer system that covers over 99% of Taiwan's population. Four metformin-based dual therapy cohorts were used, namely a reference group of metformin plus sulfonylureas (Metformin-SU) and metformin plus acarbose, metformin plus thiazolidinediones (Metformin-TZD), and metformin plus glinides (Metformin-glinides). Using propensity scores, each subject in a comparison cohort was 1:1 matched to a referent. The effectiveness outcome was CVD risk. Only direct medical costs were included. The Markov chain model was applied to project lifetime outcomes, discounted at 3% per annum. The bootstrapping technique was performed to assess uncertainty in analysis. Metformin-glinides was most cost-effective in the base-case analysis; Metformin-glinides saved $194 USD for one percentage point of reduction in CVD risk, as compared to Metformin-SU. However, for the elderly or those with severe diabetic complications, Metformin-TZD, especially pioglitazone, was more suitable; as compared to Metformin-SU, Metformin-TZD saved $840.1 USD per percentage point of reduction in CVD risk. Among TZDs, Metformin-pioglitazone saved $1831.5 USD per percentage point of associated CVD risk reduction, as compared to Metformin-rosiglitazone. When CVD is considered an important clinical outcome, Metformin-pioglitazone is cost-effective, in particular for the elderly and those with severe diabetic complications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absenteeism and Truancy: Risk, Protection, and Best Practice Implications for School Social Workers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teasley, Martell L.

2004-01-01

The author discusses the context in which absenteeism and truancy occur through an analysis of risk and protective mechanisms and suggests best practice methods based on a review of literature and research on several successful absenteeism and truancy prevention and reduction programs. The author suggests ways that school social workers can…

Tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction: impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment on cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Melnikow, Joy; Birch, Stephen; Slee, Christina; McCarthy, Theodore J; Helms, L Jay; Kuppermann, Miriam

2008-09-01

In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the effects of health-care interventions on multiple health dimensions typically require consideration of both quantity and quality of life. To explore the impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment using patient preferences (utilities) on the outcome of a CEA on use of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. A state transition Markov model tracked hypothetical cohorts of women who did or did not take 5 years of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. Incremental quality-adjusted effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for models including and excluding a utility adjustment for menopausal symptoms were compared with each other and to a global utility model. Two hundred fifty-five women aged 50 and over with estimated 5-year breast cancer risk >or=1.67% participated in utility assessment interviews. Standard gamble utilities were assessed for specified tamoxifen-related health outcomes, current health, and for a global assessment of possible outcomes of tamoxifen use. Inclusion of a utility for menopausal symptoms in the outcome-specific models substantially increased the ICER; at the threshold 5-year breast cancer risk of 1.67%, tamoxifen was dominated. When a global utility for tamoxifen was used in place of outcome-specific utilities, tamoxifen was dominated under all circumstances. CEAs may be profoundly affected by the types of outcomes considered for quality-of-life adjustment and how these outcomes are grouped for utility assessment. Comparisons of ICERs across analyses must consider effects of different approaches to using utilities for quality-of-life adjustment.

Partial Least Squares for Discrimination in fMRI Data

PubMed Central

Andersen, Anders H.; Rayens, William S.; Liu, Yushu; Smith, Charles D.

2011-01-01

Multivariate methods for discrimination were used in the comparison of brain activation patterns between groups of cognitively normal women who are at either high or low Alzheimer's disease risk based on family history and apolipoprotein-E4 status. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was preceded by dimension reduction using either principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), or a new oriented partial least squares (OrPLS) method. The aim was to identify a spatial pattern of functionally connected brain regions that was differentially expressed by the risk groups and yielded optimal classification accuracy. Multivariate dimension reduction is required prior to LDA when the data contains more feature variables than there are observations on individual subjects. Whereas PCA has been commonly used to identify covariance patterns in neuroimaging data, this approach only identifies gross variability and is not capable of distinguishing among-groups from within-groups variability. PLS and OrPLS provide a more focused dimension reduction by incorporating information on class structure and therefore lead to more parsimonious models for discrimination. Performance was evaluated in terms of the cross-validated misclassification rates. The results support the potential of using fMRI as an imaging biomarker or diagnostic tool to discriminate individuals with disease or high risk. PMID:22227352

An analysis of attitude toward infant sleep safety and SIDS risk reduction behavior among caregivers of newborns and infants.

PubMed

Varghese, S; Gasalberti, D; Ahern, K; Chang, J C

2015-11-01

To explore beliefs and attitude toward infant sleep safety and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) risk reduction behaviors among caregivers of newborns and infants. A convenience sample comprised of 121 caregivers of newborns at Staten Island University Hospital completed a questionnaire. Despite an overall favorable attitude toward safe sleep practices, a majority disagreed with use of pacifiers (53%) and believed that swaddling (62%) as well as the use of home monitors (59%) are acceptable practices. The caregivers who recalled being taught about safe sleep had higher perception of infant vulnerability (P<0.001), more confidence in their ability to implement safe sleep behaviors (P<0.0006) and stronger belief that safe sleep behaviors are effective (P<0.01). Active caregiver education may result in more effective demonstration of safe sleep and SIDS risk reduction behaviors. Further study is needed to assess if favorable attitudes toward safe sleep practices correlate with actual demonstrated behaviors.

Assessment of the Incentives Created by Public Disclosure of Off-Site Consequence Analysis Information for Reduction in the Risk of Accidental Releases

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The off-site consequence analysis (OCA) evaluates the potential for worst-case and alternative accidental release scenarios to harm the public and environment around the facility. Public disclosure would likely reduce the number/severity of incidents.

41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...

Randomised trial of low-dose amiodarone in severe congestive heart failure. Grupo de Estudio de la Sobrevida en la Insuficiencia Cardiaca en Argentina (GESICA)

PubMed

Doval, H C; Nul, D R; Grancelli, H O; Perrone, S V; Bortman, G R; Curiel, R

1994-08-20

In severe heart failure many deaths are sudden and are presumed to be due to ventricular arrhythmias. The GESICA trial evaluated the effect of low-dose amiodarone on two-year mortality in patients with severe heart failure. Our prospective multicentre trial included 516 patients on optimal standard treatment for heart failure. Patients were randomised to 300 mg/day amiodarone (260) or to standard treatment (256). Intention-to-treat analysis showed 87 deaths in the amiodarone group (33.5%) compared with 106 in the control group (41.4%) (risk reduction 28%; 95% CI 4%-45%; log rank test p = 0.024). There were reductions in both sudden death (risk reduction 27%; p = 0.16) and death due to progressive heart failure (risk reduction 23%; p = 0.16). Fewer patients in the amiodarone group died or were admitted to hospital due to worsening heart failure (119 versus 149 in the control group; risk reduction 31%; 95% CI 13-46%; p = 0.0024). The decrease in mortality and hospital admission was present in all subgroups examined and independent of the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. Side-effects were reported in 17 patients (6.1%); amiodarone was withdrawn in 12. Low-dose amiodarone proved to be an effective and reliable treatment, reducing mortality and hospital admission in patients with severe heart failure independently of the presence of complex ventricular arrhythmias.

Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part II: Descriptive Analysis of Identified Twitter Activity during the 2013 Hattiesburg F4 Tornado.

PubMed

Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

2015-06-29

This article describes a novel triangulation methodological approach for identifying twitter activity of regional active twitter users during the 2013 Hattiesburg EF-4 Tornado. A data extraction and geographically centered filtration approach was utilized to generate Twitter data for 48 hrs pre- and post-Tornado. The data was further validated using six sigma approach utilizing GPS data. The regional analysis revealed a total of 81,441 tweets, 10,646 Twitter users, 27,309 retweets and 2637 tweets with GPS coordinates. Twitter tweet activity increased 5 fold during the response to the Hattiesburg Tornado.  Retweeting activity increased 2.2 fold. Tweets with a hashtag increased 1.4 fold. Twitter was an effective disaster risk reduction tool for the Hattiesburg EF-4 Tornado 2013.

CFD Analysis in Advance of the NASA Juncture Flow Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, H. C.; Pulliam, T. H.; Neuhart, D. H.; Kegerise, M. A.

2017-01-01

NASA through its Transformational Tools and Technologies Project (TTT) under the Advanced Air Vehicle Program, is supporting a substantial effort to investigate the formation and origin of separation bubbles found on wing-body juncture zones. The flow behavior in these regions is highly complex, difficult to measure experimentally, and challenging to model numerically. Multiple wing configurations were designed and evaluated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), and a series of wind tunnel risk reduction tests were performed to further down-select the candidates for the final experiment. This paper documents the CFD analysis done in conjunction with the 6 percent scale risk reduction experiment performed in NASA Langley's 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The combined CFD and wind tunnel results ultimately helped the Juncture Flow committee select the wing configurations for the final experiment.

The effect of antihypertensive treatment on the incidence of stroke and cognitive decline in the elderly: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Parsons, Christine; Murad, Mohammad Hassan; Andersen, Stuart; Mookadam, Farouk; Labonte, Helene

2016-03-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of antihypertensives in reducing neurocognitive outcomes in elderly patients. We conducted a systematic literature search of randomized trials in which hypertensive patients with a mean age ≥65 years received antihypertensive or control treatment. Outcomes were stroke, transient ischemic attack, cognitive decline and dementia. We included 14 trials for meta-analysis. Compared to placebo, antihypertensive treatment reduced the risk of stroke (RR: 0.67 [95% CI: 0.57-0.79]). Reduced risk was significant for transient ischemic attack, fatal stroke, nonfatal stroke and total stroke. There were insufficient data to compare individual agents. Antihypertensive treatment is associated with a significant reduction in stroke in elderly individuals. Reductions in dementia and cognitive decline were not significant; however, there was short follow-up. Comparative effectiveness evidence is limited.

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

Caspofungin versus fluconazole as prophylaxis of invasive fungal infection in high-risk liver transplantation recipients: A propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Fortún, Jesús; Muriel, Alfonso; Martín-Dávila, Pilar; Montejo, Miguel; Len, Oscar; Torre-Cisneros, Julian; Carratalá, Jordi; Muñoz, Patricia; Fariñas, Carmen; Moreno, Asunción; Fresco, Gema; Goikoetxea, Josune; Gavaldá, Joan; Pozo, Juan Carlos; Bodro, Marta; Vena, Antonio; Casafont, Fernando; Cervera, Carlos; Silva, José Tiago; Aguado, José M

2016-04-01

Targeted prophylaxis has proven to be an efficient strategy in liver transplantation recipients (LTRs). The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness and safety of caspofungin with that of fluconazole in high-risk (HR) LTRs. Caspofungin and fluconazole were compared in a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study in HR-LTRs in Spain. Outcomes were assessed at 180 days after transplantation. A propensity score approach was applied. During the study period (2005-2012), we analyzed 195 HR-LTRs from 9 hospitals. By type of prophylaxis, 97 patients received caspofungin and 98 received fluconazole. Of a total of 17 (8.7%) global invasive fungal infections (IFIs), breakthrough IFIs accounted for 11 (5.6%) and invasive aspergillosis (IA) accounted for 6 (3.1%). By univariate analysis, no differences were observed in the prevention of global IFIs. However, caspofungin was associated with a significant reduction in the rate of breakthrough IFIs (2.1% versus 9.2%, P = 0.04). In patients requiring dialysis (n = 62), caspofungin significantly reduced the frequency of breakthrough IFIs (P = 0.03). The propensity score analysis confirmed a significant reduction in the frequency of IA in patients receiving caspofungin (absolute risk reduction, 0.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.001-0.11; P = 0.044). Linear regression analysis revealed a significant decrease in blood alanine aminotransferase levels and a significant increase in bilirubin levels after administration of caspofungin. Caspofungin and fluconazole have similar efficacy for the prevention of global IFIs in HR-LTRs in this observational, multicenter cohort study. However, caspofungin was associated with a significant reduction of breakthrough IFIs and, after adjusting for confounders, caspofungin was associated with a lower rate of IA. This benefit is probably more favorable in patients on dialysis. Caspofungin is safe in HR-LTRs, although bilirubin levels may be increased. © 2015 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Surgeon specialization and operative mortality in United States: retrospective analysis

PubMed Central

Dalton, Maurice; Cutler, David M; Birkmeyer, John D; Chandra, Amitabh

2016-01-01

Objective To measure the association between a surgeon’s degree of specialization in a specific procedure and patient mortality. Design Retrospective analysis of Medicare data. Setting US patients aged 66 or older enrolled in traditional fee for service Medicare. Participants 25 152 US surgeons who performed one of eight procedures (carotid endarterectomy, coronary artery bypass grafting, valve replacement, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, lung resection, cystectomy, pancreatic resection, or esophagectomy) on 695 987 patients in 2008-13. Main outcome measure Relative risk reduction in risk adjusted and volume adjusted 30 day operative mortality between surgeons in the bottom quarter and top quarter of surgeon specialization (defined as the number of times the surgeon performed the specific procedure divided by his/her total operative volume across all procedures). Results For all four cardiovascular procedures and two out of four cancer resections, a surgeon’s degree of specialization was a significant predictor of operative mortality independent of the number of times he or she performed that procedure: carotid endarterectomy (relative risk reduction between bottom and top quarter of surgeons 28%, 95% confidence interval 0% to 48%); coronary artery bypass grafting (15%, 4% to 25%); valve replacement (46%, 37% to 53%); abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (42%, 29% to 53%); lung resection (28%, 5% to 46%); and cystectomy (41%, 8% to 63%). In five procedures (carotid endarterectomy, valve replacement, lung resection, cystectomy, and esophagectomy), the relative risk reduction from surgeon specialization was greater than that from surgeon volume for that specific procedure. Furthermore, surgeon specialization accounted for 9% (coronary artery bypass grafting) to 100% (cystectomy) of the relative risk reduction otherwise attributable to volume in that specific procedure. Conclusion For several common procedures, surgeon specialization was an important predictor of operative mortality independent of volume in that specific procedure. When selecting a surgeon, patients, referring physicians, and administrators assigning operative workload may want to consider a surgeon’s procedure specific volume as well as the degree to which a surgeon specializes in that procedure. PMID:27444190

Effectiveness of perioperative antiepileptic drug prophylaxis for early and late seizures following oncologic neurosurgery: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Joiner, Evan F; Youngerman, Brett E; Hudson, Taylor S; Yang, Jingyan; Welch, Mary R; McKhann, Guy M; Neugut, Alfred I; Bruce, Jeffrey N

2018-04-27

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the impact of perioperative antiepileptic drug (AED) prophylaxis on short- and long-term seizure incidence among patients undergoing brain tumor surgery. It is the first meta-analysis to focus exclusively on perioperative AED prophylaxis among patients undergoing brain tumor surgery. METHODS The authors searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, clinicaltrials.gov, and the System for Information on Gray Literature in Europe for records related to perioperative AED prophylaxis for patients with brain tumors. Risk of bias in the included studies was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Incidence rates for early seizures (within the first postoperative week) and total seizures were estimated based on data from randomized controlled trials. A Mantel-Haenszel random-effects model was used to analyze pooled relative risk (RR) of early seizures (within the first postoperative week) and total seizures associated with perioperative AED prophylaxis versus control. RESULTS Four RCTs involving 352 patients met the criteria of inclusion. The results demonstrated that perioperative AED prophylaxis for patients undergoing brain tumor surgery provides a statistically significant reduction in risk of early postoperative seizures compared with control (RR = 0.352, 95% confidence interval 0.130-0.949, p = 0.039). AED prophylaxis had no statistically significant effect on the total (combined short- and long-term) incidence of seizures. CONCLUSIONS This meta-analysis demonstrates for the first time that perioperative AED prophylaxis for brain tumor surgery provides a statistically significant reduction in early postoperative seizure risk.

Safety and efficacy of antibiotics compared with appendicectomy for treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Varadhan, Krishna K; Neal, Keith R

2012-01-01

Objective To compare the safety and efficacy of antibiotic treatment versus appendicectomy for the primary treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis. Design Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Population Randomised controlled trials of adult patients presenting with uncomplicated acute appendicitis, diagnosed by haematological and radiological investigations. Interventions Antibiotic treatment versus appendicectomy. Outcome measures The primary outcome measure was complications. The secondary outcome measures were efficacy of treatment, length of stay, and incidence of complicated appendicitis and readmissions. Results Four randomised controlled trials with a total of 900 patients (470 antibiotic treatment, 430 appendicectomy) met the inclusion criteria. Antibiotic treatment was associated with a 63% (277/438) success rate at one year. Meta-analysis of complications showed a relative risk reduction of 31% for antibiotic treatment compared with appendicectomy (risk ratio (Mantel-Haenszel, fixed) 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.89); I2=0%; P=0.004). A secondary analysis, excluding the study with crossover of patients between the two interventions after randomisation, showed a significant relative risk reduction of 39% for antibiotic therapy (risk ratio 0.61 (0.40 to 0.92); I2=0%; P=0.02). Of the 65 (20%) patients who had appendicectomy after readmission, nine had perforated appendicitis and four had gangrenous appendicitis. No significant differences were seen for treatment efficacy, length of stay, or risk of developing complicated appendicitis. Conclusion Antibiotics are both effective and safe as primary treatment for patients with uncomplicated acute appendicitis. Initial antibiotic treatment merits consideration as a primary treatment option for early uncomplicated appendicitis. PMID:22491789

Dietary Intervention for Overweight and Obese Adults: Comparison of Low-Carbohydrate and Low-Fat Diets. A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sackner-Bernstein, Jonathan; Kanter, David; Kaul, Sanjay

2015-01-01

Background Reduced calorie, low fat diet is currently recommended diet for overweight and obese adults. Prior data suggest that low carbohydrate diets may also be a viable option for those who are overweight and obese. Purpose Compare the effects of low carbohydrate versus low fats diet on weight and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in overweight and obese patients. Data Sources Systematic literature review via PubMed (1966–2014). Study Selection Randomized controlled trials with ≥8 weeks follow up, comparing low carbohydrate (≤120gm carbohydrates/day) and low fat diet (≤30% energy from fat/day). Data Extraction Data were extracted and prepared for analysis using double data entry. Prior to identification of candidate publications, the outcomes of change in weight and metabolic factors were selected as defined by Cochrane Collaboration. Assessment of the effects of diets on predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk was added during the data collection phase. Data Synthesis 1797 patients were included from 17 trials with <1 year follow up in 12. Compared with low fat diet, low carbohydrate was associated with significantly greater reduction in weight (Δ = -2.0 kg, 95% CI: -3.1, -0.9) and significantly lower predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events (p<0.03). Frequentist and Bayesian results were concordant. The probability of greater weight loss associated with low carbohydrate was >99% while the reduction in predicted risk favoring low carbohydrate was >98%. Limitations Lack of patient-level data and heterogeneity in dropout rates and outcomes reported. Conclusions This trial-level meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing LoCHO diets with LoFAT diets in strictly adherent populations demonstrates that each diet was associated with significant weight loss and reduction in predicted risk of ASCVD events. However, LoCHO diet was associated with modest but significantly greater improvements in weight loss and predicted ASCVD risk in studies from 8 weeks to 24 months in duration. These results suggest that future evaluations of dietary guidelines should consider low carbohydrate diets as effective and safe intervention for weight management in the overweight and obese, although long-term effects require further investigation. PMID:26485706

Risk Management Interventions to Reduce Injuries and Maximize Economic Benefits in U.S. Mining.

PubMed

Griffin, Stephanie C; Bui, David P; Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Lutz, Eric A; He, Charles; Hu, Chengcheng; Burgess, Jefferey L

2018-03-01

Risk management (RM) is a cyclical process of identifying and ranking risks, implementing controls, and evaluating their effectiveness. This study aims to identify effective RM interventions in the U.S. mining industry. RM interventions were identified in four companies representing metal, aggregate, and coal mining sectors. Injury rates were determined using Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) data and changes in injury rates identified through change point analysis. Program implementation costs and associated changes in injury costs were evaluated for select interventions. Six of 20 RM interventions were associated with a decline in all injuries and one with a reduction in lost-time injuries, all with a positive return on investment. Reductions in injuries and associated costs were observed following implementation of a limited number of specific RM interventions.

Examining the Efficacy of HIV Risk-Reduction Counseling on the Sexual Risk Behaviors of a National Sample of Drug Abuse Treatment Clients: Analysis of Subgroups.

PubMed

Gooden, Lauren; Metsch, Lisa R; Pereyra, Margaret R; Malotte, C Kevin; Haynes, Louise F; Douaihy, Antoine; Chally, Jack; Mandler, Raul N; Feaster, Daniel J

2016-09-01

HIV counseling with testing has been part of HIV prevention in the U.S. since the 1980s. Despite the long-standing history of HIV testing with prevention counseling, the CDC released HIV testing recommendations for health care settings contesting benefits of prevention counseling with testing in reducing sexual risk behaviors among HIV-negatives in 2006. Efficacy of brief HIV risk-reduction counseling (RRC) in decreasing sexual risk among subgroups of substance use treatment clients was examined using multi-site RCT data. Interaction tests between RRC and subgroups were performed; multivariable regression evaluated the relationship between RRC (with rapid testing) and sex risk. Subgroups were defined by demographics, risk type and level, attitudes/perceptions, and behavioral history. There was an effect (p < .0028) of counseling on number of sex partners among some subgroups. Certain subgroups may benefit from HIV RRC; this should be examined in studies with larger sample sizes, designed to assess the specific subgroup(s).

Reduced or modified dietary fat for preventing cardiovascular disease

PubMed Central

Hooper, Lee; Summerbell, Carolyn D; Thompson, Rachel; Sills, Deirdre; Roberts, Felicia G; Moore, Helen; Smith, George Davey

2014-01-01

Background Reduction and modification of dietary fats have differing effects on cardiovascular risk factors (such as serum cholesterol), but their effects on important health outcomes are less clear. Objectives To assess the effect of reduction and/or modification of dietary fats on mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular morbidity and individual outcomes including myocardial infarction, stroke and cancer diagnoses in randomised clinical trials of at least 6 months duration. Search methods For this review update, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched through to June 2010. References of Included studies and reviews were also checked. Selection criteria Trials fulfilled the following criteria: 1) randomised with appropriate control group, 2) intention to reduce or modify fat or cholesterol intake (excluding exclusively omega-3 fat interventions), 3) not multi factorial, 4) adult humans with or without cardiovascular disease, 5) intervention at least six months, 6) mortality or cardiovascular morbidity data available. Data collection and analysis Participant numbers experiencing health outcomes in each arm were extracted independently in duplicate and random effects meta-analyses, meta-regression, sub-grouping, sensitivity analyses and funnel plots were performed. Main results This updated review suggested that reducing saturated fat by reducing and/or modifying dietary fat reduced the risk of cardiovascular events by 14% (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.96, 24 comparisons, 65,508 participants of whom 7% had a cardiovascular event, I2 50%). Subgrouping suggested that this reduction in cardiovascular events was seen in studies of fat modification (not reduction - which related directly to the degree of effect on serum total and LDL cholesterol and triglycerides), of at least two years duration and in studies of men (not of women). There were no clear effects of dietary fat changes on total mortality (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.04, 71,790 participants) or cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.04, 65,978 participants). This did not alter with sub-grouping or sensitivity analysis. Few studies compared reduced with modified fat diets, so direct comparison was not possible. Authors’ conclusions The findings are suggestive of a small but potentially important reduction in cardiovascular risk on modification of dietary fat, but not reduction of total fat, in longer trials. Lifestyle advice to all those at risk of cardiovascular disease and to lower risk population groups, should continue to include permanent reduction of dietary saturated fat and partial replacement by unsaturates. The ideal type of unsaturated fat is unclear. PMID:21735388

Workers' compensation loss prevention representative contact and risk of lost-time injury in construction policyholders.

PubMed

Schofield, Katherine E; Alexander, Bruce H; Gerberich, Susan G; MacLehose, Richard F

2017-09-01

Insurance loss prevention (LP) representatives have access and contact with businesses and employees to provide targeted safety and health resources. Construction firms, especially those smaller in size, are a high-risk population. This research evaluated the association between LP rep contact and risk for lost-time injuries in construction policyholders. Workers' compensation data were utilized to track LP rep contact with policyholders and incidence of lost-time injury over time. Survival analysis with repeated events modeling calculated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Compared no LP contact, one contact was associated with a 27% reduction of risk (HR=0.73, CI=0.65-0.82), two with a 41% (HR=0.59, CI=0.51-0.68), and three or more contacts with a 28% reduction of risk (HR=0.72, CI=0.65-0.81). LP reps appear to be a valuable partner in efforts to reduce injury burden. Their presence or contact with policyholders is consistent with reduction in overall incidence of lost-time injuries. Reduction in lost-time injuries, resulting in reduced workers' compensation costs for policyholders and insurance companies, builds a business-case for safety and injury prevention. LP reps are often a low or no-cost benefit for insurance policyholders and may be an important injury prevention resource for small firms and/or those with lack of safety resources and staff. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public

PubMed Central

Chen, Liangyong

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior. PMID:26526570

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public.

PubMed

Chen, Liangyong; Ma, Zujun

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior.

Bookending the Opportunity to Lower Wind’s LCOE by Reducing the Uncertainty Surrounding Annual Energy Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

Reducing the performance risk surrounding a wind project can potentially lead to a lower weighted-average cost of capital (WACC), and hence a lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE), through an advantageous shift in capital structure, and possibly also a reduction in the cost of capital. Specifically, a reduction in performance risk will move the 1-year P99 annual energy production (AEP) estimate closer to the P50 AEP estimate, which in turn reduces the minimum debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) required by lenders, thereby allowing the project to be financed with a greater proportion of low-cost debt. In addition, a reduction inmore » performance risk might also reduce the cost of one or more of the three sources of capital that are commonly used to finance wind projects: sponsor or cash equity, tax equity, and/or debt. Preliminary internal LBNL analysis of the maximum possible LCOE reduction attainable from reducing the performance risk of a wind project found a potentially significant opportunity for LCOE reduction of ~$10/MWh, by reducing the P50 DSCR to its theoretical minimum value of 1.0 (Bolinger 2015b, 2014) and by reducing the cost of sponsor equity and debt by one-third to one-half each (Bolinger 2015a, 2015b). However, with FY17 funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Performance Risk, Uncertainty, and Finance (PRUF) initiative, LBNL has been revisiting this “bookending” exercise in more depth, and now believes that its earlier preliminary assessment of the LCOE reduction opportunity was overstated. This reassessment is based on two new-found understandings: (1) Due to ever-present and largely irreducible inter-annual variability (IAV) in the wind resource, the minimum required DSCR cannot possibly fall to 1.0 (on a P50 basis), and (2) A reduction in AEP uncertainty will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the cost of capital, meaning that a shift in capital structure is perhaps the best that can be expected (perhaps along with a modest decline in the cost of cash equity as new investors enter the market).« less

The effects of a mass media HIV-risk reduction strategy on HIV-related stigma and knowledge among African American adolescents.

PubMed

Kerr, Jelani C; Valois, Robert F; DiClemente, Ralph J; Carey, Michael P; Stanton, Bonita; Romer, Daniel; Fletcher, Faith; Farber, Naomi; Brown, Larry K; Vanable, Peter A; Salazar, Laura F; Juzang, Ivan; Fortune, Thierry

2015-03-01

HIV-related stigma undermines HIV prevention, testing, and treatment. Multipronged risk-reduction strategies may reduce stigma among African American adolescents. To test the effectiveness of a risk-reduction strategy in addressing stigma, 1613 African American adolescents from four mid-sized cities participated in a randomized control trial. Participants received a sexual-risk reduction [Focus on Youth (FOY)] or general health curriculum [Promoting Health Among Teens (PHAT)]. Two cities received a culturally-tailored media intervention. Participants completed baseline, 3-, 6-, and 12-month surveys to measure HIV-related stigma and knowledge. Analysis of covariance tested for stigma and knowledge differences by media city status and curriculum/media city status (PHAT media vs. PHAT non-media, FOY media vs. FOY non-media; FOY media vs. PHAT media; FOY non-media vs. PHAT non-media) at each measurement. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) determined stigma and knowledge differences over time. Media participants demonstrated greater HIV-related knowledge (p<0.10) at 6 months and lower stigma at 3 months (p<0.10). FOY media participants had lower 3-month (p<0.05) and 12-month (p<0.10) stigma scores than non-media FOY participants. FOY media and non-media participants had greater knowledge than PHAT for all intervals after baseline. FOY media had lower stigma than PHAT media after baseline for all intervals after baseline. HLM indicated greater knowledge slopes for the media group (p<0.05). FOY media participants had greater knowledge slopes (p<0.05) relative to non-media FOY participants and media PHAT participants (p<0.01). A combination of a HIV risk-reduction curriculum and culturally-tailored media demonstrated some effectiveness in reducing stigma. Future use of media in HIV-prevention should include and evaluate effects on stigma.

Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada).

PubMed

Spinelli, John J; Demers, Paul A; Le, Nhu D; Friesen, Melissa D; Lorenzi, Maria F; Fang, Raymond; Gallagher, Richard P

2006-09-01

A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted [1]. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends <0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP <0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend <0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend <0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend <0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

Street conflict mediation to prevent youth violence: conflict characteristics and outcomes.

PubMed

Whitehill, Jennifer M; Webster, Daniel W; Vernick, Jon S

2013-06-01

Mediation of potentially violent conflicts is a key component of CeaseFire, an effective gun violence-prevention programme. To describe conflicts mediated by outreach workers (OW) in Baltimore's CeaseFire replication, examine neighbourhood variation, and measure associations between conflict risk factors and successful nonviolent resolution. A cross-sectional study was conducted using records for 158 conflicts mediated between 2007 and 2009. Involvement of youth, gangs, retaliation, weapons and other risk factors were described. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used for data-reduction purposes before the relationship between conflict risk components and mediation success was assessed with multivariate logistic regression. Most conflicts involved 2-3 individuals. Youth, persons with a history of violence, gang members and weapons were commonly present. OWs reported immediate, nonviolent resolution for 65% of mediated conflicts; an additional 23% were at least temporarily resolved without violence. PCA identified four dimensions of conflict risk: the risk-level of individuals involved; whether the incident was related to retaliation; the number of people involved; and shooting likelihood. However, these factors were not related to the OW's ability to resolve the conflict. Neighbourhoods with programme-associated reductions in homicides mediated more gang-related conflicts; neighbourhoods without programme-related homicide reductions encountered more retaliatory conflicts and more weapons.

Infection risk and cost-effectiveness of commercial bags or glass bottles for total parenteral nutrition.

PubMed

Durand-Zaleski, I; Delaunay, L; Langeron, O; Belda, E; Astier, A; Brun-Buisson, C

1997-03-01

To determine whether the greater daily expense of administering total parenteral nutrition (TPN) via plastic bags changed once daily, compared to glass bottles changed thrice daily, could be offset by savings from a reduction in nosocomial infections. The costs and potential benefits of commercially available TPN bags and TPN in glass containers were compared. Costs were computed from the viewpoint of the hospital, first in a general model and then for two specific examples, Crohn's disease and intensive-care unit (ICU) patients. The extra cost of using bags was $20 per day. The total cost of nosocomial bacteremia was estimated at $6,000. The monetary benefits of using TPN bags were $6,000XT, where XT was the percentage of nosocomial infections averted. We also considered that reduction in intravenous (IV)-line manipulation could reduce bacteremia-related mortality and computed a cost-per-life-saved ratio. Modeling showed that TPN in bags could yield a net benefit when the absolute reduction in the daily risk of nosocomial bacteremia reached the threshold value of 0.3%. Such a reduction could not be attained in patients with Crohn's disease, and corresponded to a 50% to 60% reduction of infection rates in ICU patients. Varying the risk of mortality attributable to IV-line-related infection from 1% to 13% resulted in a cost effectiveness of using TPN bags ranging from $90,000 to $7,000 per life saved in ICU, assuming a two-thirds reduction in IV-line infections, and from $180,000 to $14,000 if the infection rate was reduced by one third. The baseline cost-minimization analysis concluded that the extra cost of TPN bags was not justified by the extra savings. The cost-effectiveness analysis, however, found that the cost per life saved fell within the accepted range of public health interventions, provided a large fraction of infections are averted using TPN bags.

A change in paradigm: lowering blood pressure in everyone over a certain age.

PubMed

Law, Malcolm

2012-06-01

Dividing people into 'hypertensives' and 'normotensives' is commonplace but problematic. The relationship between blood pressure and cardiovascular disease is continuous. The Prospective Studies Collaboration analysis shows a continuous straight line dose-response relationship across the entire population down to blood pressure levels of 115 mmHg systolic and 75 mmHg diastolic, the confidence limits on the individual data points being sufficiently narrow to exclude even a minor deviation from a linear relationship. Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials shows that blood pressure-lowering drugs produce similar proportional reductions in risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke irrespective of pre-treatment blood pressure, down to levels of 110 mmHg systolic and 70 mmHg diastolic. There are also now sufficient trial data to show a statistically significant risk reduction in 'normotensive' people without known vascular disease on entry. The straight line (log-linear) relationship means that the benefit derived from lowering blood pressure is proportional to existing risk, so the decision on whom to treat with blood pressure-lowering drugs should depend on a person's overall absolute risk irrespective of blood pressure. In primary prevention, basing treatment on age alone rather than overall absolute risk entails little loss of efficacy and may be preferred on the basis of simplicity and avoidance of anxiety in telling people they are at elevated risk.

An evaluation of the 25 by 25 goal for premature cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis, population attributable fraction and national population-based study.

PubMed

Su, Shih-Yung; Lee, Wen-Chung; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Wang, Hao-Chien; Su, Ta-Chen; Jeng, Jiann-Shing; Tu, Yu-Kang; Liao, Shu-Fen; Lu, Tzu-Pin; Chien, Kuo-Liong

2017-01-01

The aim of the 25 by 25 goal is to reduce mortality from premature non-communicable diseases by 25% before 2025. Studies have evaluated the 25 by 25 goal in many countries, but not in Taiwan. The aim of this study was to estimate the 25 by 25 goal for premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Taiwan. We applied the age-period-cohort model to project the incidence of premature death from cardiovascular disease from 2015 to 2024 and used the population attributable fraction to estimate the contributions of targeted risk factors. The probability of death was used to estimate the percent change. The percent change in business-as-usual trend during 2010-2024 was only a 6% (range 1.7-10.7%) lower risk of premature mortality from cardiovascular disease among men. The greatest reduction in the risk of mortality occurred with a 30% reduction in the prevalence of smoking; however, there was only a 14.5% (10.6-18.3%) decrease in percent change and in the corresponding number of men (3706: range 3543-3868) who were prevented from dying. More than a 25% reduction in the percent change of premature cardiovascular disease mortality among women was achieved without control of any risk factor. To reach a 25% reduction in men before 2025, there needs to be a 70% reduction in the prevalence of smoking to reduce mortality by 26.2% (22.9-29.3%). Cigarette smoking is the primary target in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Through the stringent control of smoking, the goal of a 25% reduction in premature mortality from cardiovascular disease may be achieved before 2025 in Taiwan.

Removal of 16 pesticide residues from strawberries by washing with tap and ozone water, ultrasonic cleaning and boiling.

PubMed

Lozowicka, Bozena; Jankowska, Magdalena; Hrynko, Izabela; Kaczynski, Piotr

2016-01-01

The effects of washing with tap and ozone water, ultrasonic cleaning and boiling on 16 pesticide (ten fungicides and six insecticides) residue levels in raw strawberries were investigated at different processing times (1, 2 and 5 min). An analysis of these pesticides was conducted using gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorous and electron capture detection (GC-NPD/ECD). The processing factor (PF) for each pesticide in each processing technique was determined. Washing with ozonated water was demonstrated to be more effective (reduction from 36.1 to 75.1 %) than washing with tap water (reduction from 19.8 to 68.1 %). Boiling decreased the residues of the most compounds, with reductions ranging from 42.8 to 92.9 %. Ultrasonic cleaning lowered residues for all analysed pesticides with removal of up to 91.2 %. The data indicated that ultrasonic cleaning and boiling were the most effective treatments for the reduction of 16 pesticide residues in raw strawberries, resulting in a lower health risk exposure. Calculated PFs for alpha-cypermethrin were used to perform an acute risk assessment of dietary exposure. To investigate the relationship between the levels of 16 pesticides in strawberry samples and their physicochemical properties, a principal component analysis (PCA) was performed. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

Development and validation of the Alzheimer's prevention beliefs measure in a multi-ethnic cohort-a behavioral theory approach.

PubMed

Seifan, Alon; Ganzer, Christine A; Vermeylen, Francoise; Parry, Stephen; Zhu, Jifeng; Lyons, Abigail; Isaacson, Richard; Kim, Sarang

2017-12-01

Understanding health beliefs and how they influence willingness will enable the development of targeted curricula that maximize public engagement in Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk reduction behaviors. Literature on behavioral theory and community input was used to develop and validate a health beliefs survey about AD risk reduction among 428 community-dwelling adults. Principal component analysis was performed to assess internal consistency. Linear regression was performed to identify key predictors of Willingness to engage in AD risk reduction behaviors. The measure as well as the individual scales (Benefits, Barriers, Severity, Susceptibility and Social Norm) were found to be internally consistent. Overall, as Benefits and Barriers scores increased, Willingness scores also increased. Those without prior AD experience or family history had lower willingness scores. Finally, we observed an interaction between age and norms, suggesting that social factors related to AD prevention may differentially affect people of different ages. The Alzheimer Prevention Beliefs Measure provides assessment of several health belief factors related to AD prevention. Age, Family History, Logistical Barriers and total Benefits are significant determinants of willingness to engage in AD risk reduction behaviors, such as seeing a doctor or making a lifestyle change. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Evaluation of a complex intervention to improve primary care prescribing: a phase IV segmented regression interrupted time series analysis

PubMed Central

MacBride-Stewart, Sean; Marwick, Charis; Houston, Neil; Watt, Iain; Patton, Andrea; Guthrie, Bruce

2017-01-01

Background It is uncertain whether improvements in primary care high-risk prescribing seen in research trials can be realised in the real-world setting. Aim To evaluate the impact of a 1-year system-wide phase IV prescribing safety improvement initiative, which included education, feedback, support to identify patients to review, and small financial incentives. Design and setting An interrupted time series analysis of targeted high-risk prescribing in all 56 general practices in NHS Forth Valley, Scotland, was performed. In 2013–2014, this focused on high-risk non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in older people and NSAIDs with oral anticoagulants; in 2014–2015, it focused on antipsychotics in older people. Method The primary analysis used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact at the end of the intervention, and 12 months later. The secondary analysis used difference-in-difference methods to compare Forth Valley changes with those in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC). Results In the primary analysis, downward trends for all three NSAID measures that were existent before the intervention statistically significantly steepened following implementation of the intervention. At the end of the intervention period, 1221 fewer patients than expected were prescribed a high-risk NSAID. In contrast, antipsychotic prescribing in older people increased slowly over time, with no intervention-associated change. In the secondary analysis, reductions at the end of the intervention period in all three NSAID measures were statistically significantly greater in NHS Forth Valley than in NHS GGC, but only significantly greater for two of these measures 12 months after the intervention finished. Conclusion There were substantial and sustained reductions in the high-risk prescribing of NSAIDs, although with some waning of effect 12 months after the intervention ceased. The same intervention had no effect on antipsychotic prescribing in older people. PMID:28347986

Evaluation of a complex intervention to improve primary care prescribing: a phase IV segmented regression interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

MacBride-Stewart, Sean; Marwick, Charis; Houston, Neil; Watt, Iain; Patton, Andrea; Guthrie, Bruce

2017-05-01

It is uncertain whether improvements in primary care high-risk prescribing seen in research trials can be realised in the real-world setting. To evaluate the impact of a 1-year system-wide phase IV prescribing safety improvement initiative, which included education, feedback, support to identify patients to review, and small financial incentives. An interrupted time series analysis of targeted high-risk prescribing in all 56 general practices in NHS Forth Valley, Scotland, was performed. In 2013-2014, this focused on high-risk non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in older people and NSAIDs with oral anticoagulants; in 2014-2015, it focused on antipsychotics in older people. The primary analysis used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact at the end of the intervention, and 12 months later. The secondary analysis used difference-in-difference methods to compare Forth Valley changes with those in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC). In the primary analysis, downward trends for all three NSAID measures that were existent before the intervention statistically significantly steepened following implementation of the intervention. At the end of the intervention period, 1221 fewer patients than expected were prescribed a high-risk NSAID. In contrast, antipsychotic prescribing in older people increased slowly over time, with no intervention-associated change. In the secondary analysis, reductions at the end of the intervention period in all three NSAID measures were statistically significantly greater in NHS Forth Valley than in NHS GGC, but only significantly greater for two of these measures 12 months after the intervention finished. There were substantial and sustained reductions in the high-risk prescribing of NSAIDs, although with some waning of effect 12 months after the intervention ceased. The same intervention had no effect on antipsychotic prescribing in older people. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Are children rational decision makers when they are asked to value their own health? A contingent valuation study conducted with children and their parents.

PubMed

Guerriero, Carla; Cairns, John; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Cori, Liliana

2018-02-01

Despite the importance of including children's preferences in the valuation of their own health benefits, no study has investigated the ability of children to understand willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions. Using a contingent valuation method, we elicit children's and parents' WTP to reduce children's risk of an asthma attack. Our results suggest that children are able to understand and value their own health risk reductions, and their ability to do so improves with age. Child age was found to be inversely related to parents' and children's WTP. The results also suggest that non-paternalistic altruism is predictive of children's WTP. For parents, care for their own health was found to be inversely related with their WTP for children's risk reductions. Comparison of parents' and children's WTP suggests that parents are willing to sacrifice for their child's health risk reduction an amount that is approximately twice that of their children. The analysis of matched pairs of parents and children suggest that there are within-household similarities as the child's WTP is positively related to parents' WTP. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regulatory Approval of Cancer Risk-reducing (Chemopreventive) Drugs: Moving What We Have Learned into the Clinic

PubMed Central

Meyskens, Frank L.; Curt, Gregory A.; Brenner, Dean E.; Gordon, Gary; Herberman, Ronald B.; Finn, Olivera; Kelloff, Gary J.; Khleif, Samir N.; Sigman, Caroline C.; Szabo, Eva

2010-01-01

This paper endeavors to clarify the current requirements and status of regulatory approval for chemoprevention (risk reduction) drugs and discusses possible improvements to the regulatory pathway for chemoprevention. Covering a wide range of topics in as much depth as space allows, this report is written in a style to facilitate the understanding of non-scientists and to serve as a framework for informing the directions of experts engaged more deeply with this issue. Key topics we cover here are as follows: a history of definitive cancer chemoprevention trials and their influence on the evolution of regulatory assessments; a brief review of the long-standing success of pharmacologic risk reduction of cardiovascular diseases and its relevance to approval for cancer risk reduction drugs; the use and limitations of biomarkers for developing and the approval of cancer risk reduction drugs; the identification of individuals at a high(er) risk for cancer and who are appropriate candidates for risk reduction drugs; business models that should incentivize pharmaceutical-industry investment in cancer risk reduction; a summary of scientific and institutional barriers to development of cancer risk reduction drugs; and a summary of major recommendations that should help facilitate the pathway to regulatory approval for pharmacologic cancer risk reduction drugs. PMID:21372031

Intensive glycaemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials.

PubMed

Hemmingsen, Bianca; Lund, Søren S; Gluud, Christian; Vaag, Allan; Almdal, Thomas; Hemmingsen, Christina; Wetterslev, Jørn

2011-11-24

To assess the effect of targeting intensive glycaemic control versus conventional glycaemic control on all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, microvascular complications, and severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses of randomised trials. Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, and CINAHL to December 2010; hand search of reference lists and conference proceedings; contacts with authors, relevant pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration. Randomised clinical trials comparing targeted intensive glycaemic control with conventional glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. Published and unpublished trials in all languages were included, irrespective of predefined outcomes. Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data related to study methods, interventions, outcomes, risk of bias, and adverse events. Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated with fixed and random effects models. Fourteen clinical trials that randomised 28,614 participants with type 2 diabetes (15,269 to intensive control and 13,345 to conventional control) were included. Intensive glycaemic control did not significantly affect the relative risks of all cause (1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.13; 28,359 participants, 12 trials) or cardiovascular mortality (1.11, 0.92 to 1.35; 28,359 participants, 12 trials). Trial sequential analyses rejected a relative risk reduction above 10% for all cause mortality and showed insufficient data on cardiovascular mortality. The risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction may be reduced (relative risk 0.85, 0.76 to 0.95; P=0.004; 28,111 participants, 8 trials), but this finding was not confirmed in trial sequential analysis. Intensive glycaemic control showed a reduction of the relative risks for the composite microvascular outcome (0.88, 0.79 to 0.97; P=0.01; 25,600 participants, 3 trials) and retinopathy (0.80, 0.67 to 0.94; P=0.009; 10,793 participants, 7 trials), but trial sequential analyses showed that sufficient evidence had not yet been reached. The estimate of an effect on the risk of nephropathy (relative risk 0.83, 0.64 to 1.06; 27,769 participants, 8 trials) was not statistically significant. The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was significantly increased when intensive glycaemic control was targeted (relative risk 2.39, 1.71 to 3.34; 27,844 participants, 9 trials); trial sequential analysis supported a 30% increased relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia. Intensive glycaemic control does not seem to reduce all cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Data available from randomised clinical trials remain insufficient to prove or refute a relative risk reduction for cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, composite microvascular complications, or retinopathy at a magnitude of 10%. Intensive glycaemic control increases the relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia by 30%.

Effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on perinatal and maternal mortality: meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Wilson, Amie; Gallos, Ioannis D; Plana, Nieves; Lissauer, David; Khan, Khalid S; Zamora, Javier; MacArthur, Christine

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on the outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal death in developing countries. Design Systematic review with meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, the Allied and Complementary Medicine database, British Nursing Index, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, BioMed Central, PsycINFO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature database, African Index Medicus, Web of Science, Reproductive Health Library, and Science Citation Index (from inception to April 2011), without language restrictions. Search terms were “birth attend*”, “traditional midwife”, “lay birth attendant”, “dais”, and “comadronas”. Review methods We selected randomised and non-randomised controlled studies with outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal mortality. Two independent reviewers undertook data extraction. We pooled relative risks separately for the randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, using a random effects model. Results We identified six cluster randomised controlled trials (n=138 549) and seven non-randomised controlled studies (n=72 225) that investigated strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants. All six randomised controlled trials found a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes; our meta-analysis showed significant reductions in perinatal death (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.88, P<0.001; number needed to treat 35, 24 to 70) and neonatal death (0.79, 0.69 to 0.88, P<0.001; 98, 66 to 170). Meta-analysis of the non-randomised studies also showed a significant reduction in perinatal mortality (0.70, 0.57 to 0.84, p<0.001; 48, 32 to 96) and neonatal mortality (0.61, 0.48 to 0.75, P<0.001; 96, 65 to 168). Six studies reported on maternal mortality and our meta-analysis showed a non-significant reduction (three randomised trials, relative risk 0.79, 0.53 to 1.05, P=0.12; three non-randomised studies, 0.80, 0.44 to 1.15, P=0.26). Conclusion Perinatal and neonatal deaths are significantly reduced with strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants. PMID:22134967

Effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on perinatal and maternal mortality: meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, Amie; Gallos, Ioannis D; Plana, Nieves; Lissauer, David; Khan, Khalid S; Zamora, Javier; MacArthur, Christine; Coomarasamy, Arri

2011-12-01

To assess the effectiveness of strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants on the outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal death in developing countries. Systematic review with meta-analysis. Medline, Embase, the Allied and Complementary Medicine database, British Nursing Index, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, BioMed Central, PsycINFO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature database, African Index Medicus, Web of Science, Reproductive Health Library, and Science Citation Index (from inception to April 2011), without language restrictions. Search terms were "birth attend*", "traditional midwife", "lay birth attendant", "dais", and "comadronas". Review methods We selected randomised and non-randomised controlled studies with outcomes of perinatal, neonatal, and maternal mortality. Two independent reviewers undertook data extraction. We pooled relative risks separately for the randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, using a random effects model. We identified six cluster randomised controlled trials (n=138 549) and seven non-randomised controlled studies (n=72 225) that investigated strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants. All six randomised controlled trials found a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes; our meta-analysis showed significant reductions in perinatal death (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.88, P<0.001; number needed to treat 35, 24 to 70) and neonatal death (0.79, 0.69 to 0.88, P<0.001; 98, 66 to 170). Meta-analysis of the non-randomised studies also showed a significant reduction in perinatal mortality (0.70, 0.57 to 0.84, p<0.001; 48, 32 to 96) and neonatal mortality (0.61, 0.48 to 0.75, P<0.001; 96, 65 to 168). Six studies reported on maternal mortality and our meta-analysis showed a non-significant reduction (three randomised trials, relative risk 0.79, 0.53 to 1.05, P=0.12; three non-randomised studies, 0.80, 0.44 to 1.15, P=0.26). Perinatal and neonatal deaths are significantly reduced with strategies incorporating training and support of traditional birth attendants.

Failure mode and effect analysis oriented to risk-reduction interventions in intraoperative electron radiation therapy: the specific impact of patient transportation, automation, and treatment planning availability.

PubMed

López-Tarjuelo, Juan; Bouché-Babiloni, Ana; Santos-Serra, Agustín; Morillo-Macías, Virginia; Calvo, Felipe A; Kubyshin, Yuri; Ferrer-Albiach, Carlos

2014-11-01

Industrial companies use failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to improve quality. Our objective was to describe an FMEA and subsequent interventions for an automated intraoperative electron radiotherapy (IOERT) procedure with computed tomography simulation, pre-planning, and a fixed conventional linear accelerator. A process map, an FMEA, and a fault tree analysis are reported. The equipment considered was the radiance treatment planning system (TPS), the Elekta Precise linac, and TN-502RDM-H metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect transistor in vivo dosimeters. Computerized order-entry and treatment-automation were also analyzed. Fifty-seven potential modes and effects were identified and classified into 'treatment cancellation' and 'delivering an unintended dose'. They were graded from 'inconvenience' or 'suboptimal treatment' to 'total cancellation' or 'potentially wrong' or 'very wrong administered dose', although these latter effects were never experienced. Risk priority numbers (RPNs) ranged from 3 to 324 and totaled 4804. After interventions such as double checking, interlocking, automation, and structural changes the final total RPN was reduced to 1320. FMEA is crucial for prioritizing risk-reduction interventions. In a semi-surgical procedure like IOERT double checking has the potential to reduce risk and improve quality. Interlocks and automation should also be implemented to increase the safety of the procedure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors associated with intestinal necrosis in children with failed non-surgical reduction for intussusception.

PubMed

Huang, Hui-Ya; Huang, Xiao-Zhong; Han, Yi-Jiang; Zhu, Li-Bin; Huang, Kai-Yu; Lin, Jing; Li, Zhong-Rong

2017-05-01

Intestinal necrosis is the most serious complication of intussusception. The risk factors associated with intestinal necrosis in pediatric patients with intussusception have not been well characterized. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with intestinal necrosis in pediatric patients with failed non-surgical reduction for intussusception. Hospitalized patients who failed the air-enema reduction for intussusception in the outpatient department and subsequently underwent surgery were retrospectively reviewed. All cases were categorized into two groups: intestinal necrosis group and non-intestinal necrosis group based on the surgical findings. Demographic and clinical features including the findings from the surgery were recorded and analyzed. Factors associated with intestinal necrosis were analyzed using univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression analyses. A total of 728 cases were included. Among them, 171 had intestinal necrosis at the time of surgery. The group with intestinal necrosis had a longer duration of symptom or length of illness (P = 0.000), and younger (P = 0.000) than the non-intestinal necrosis group. Complex/compound type of intussusceptions is more likely to have intestinal necrosis. Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of grossly bloody stool (OR = 2.12; 95% CI 1.19-3.76, P = 0.010) and duration of symptom (OR = 1.07; 95% CI 1.06-1.08, P = 0.000) were independent risk factors for intestinal necrosis in patients hospitalized for surgical reduction for intussusceptions. At time of admission, the presence of bloody stools and duration of symptom are the important risk factors for developing intestinal necrosis for those patients who failed non-surgical reduction. The length of illness has the highest sensitivity and specificity to correlate with intestinal necrosis. This finding may suggest that we should take the intussusception cases that have the longer duration of symptom directly to operation room for reduction.

Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Large-Scale Readmission Reduction Program.

PubMed

Jenq, Grace Y; Doyle, Margaret M; Belton, Beverly M; Herrin, Jeph; Horwitz, Leora I

2016-05-01

Feasibility, effectiveness, and sustainability of large-scale readmission reduction efforts are uncertain. The Greater New Haven Coalition for Safe Transitions and Readmission Reductions was funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) to reduce readmissions among all discharged Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients. To evaluate whether overall Medicare FFS readmissions were reduced through an intervention applied to high-risk discharge patients. This quasi-experimental evaluation took place at an urban academic medical center. Target discharge patients were older than 64 years with Medicare FFS insurance, residing in nearby zip codes, and discharged alive to home or facility and not against medical advice or to hospice; control discharge patients were older than 54 years with the same zip codes and discharge disposition but without Medicare FFS insurance if older than 64 years. High-risk target discharge patients were selectively enrolled in the program. Personalized transitional care, including education, medication reconciliation, follow-up telephone calls, and linkage to community resources. We measured the 30-day unplanned same-hospital readmission rates in the baseline period (May 1, 2011, through April 30, 2012) and intervention period (October 1, 2012, through May 31, 2014). We enrolled 10 621 (58.3%) of 18 223 target discharge patients (73.9% of discharge patients screened as high risk) and included all target discharge patients in the analysis. The mean (SD) age of the target discharge patients was 79.7 (8.8) years. The adjusted readmission rate decreased from 21.5% to 19.5% in the target population and from 21.1% to 21.0% in the control population, a relative reduction of 9.3%. The number needed to treat to avoid 1 readmission was 50. In a difference-in-differences analysis using a logistic regression model, the odds of readmission in the target population decreased significantly more than that of the control population in the intervention period (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99; P = .03). In a comparative interrupted time series analysis of the difference in monthly adjusted admission rates, the target population decreased an absolute -3.09 (95% CI, -6.47 to 0.29; P = .07) relative to the control population, a similar but nonsignificant effect. This large-scale readmission reduction program reduced readmissions by 9.3% among the full population targeted by the CMS despite being delivered only to high-risk patients. However, it did not achieve the goal reduction set by the CMS.

Coffee Consumption and Risk of Biliary Tract Cancers and Liver Cancer: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Godos, Justyna; Micek, Agnieszka; Marranzano, Marina; Salomone, Federico; Rio, Daniele Del; Ray, Sumantra

2017-08-28

A meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from prospective cohort and case-control studies regarding the association between coffee intake and biliary tract cancer (BTC) and liver cancer risk. Eligible studies were identified by searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from the earliest available online indexing year to March 2017. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model and multivariate random-effect meta-regression. A stratified and subgroup analysis by smoking status and hepatitis was performed to identify potential confounding factors. We identified five studies on BTC risk and 13 on liver cancer risk eligible for meta-analysis. A linear dose-response meta-analysis did not show a significant association between coffee consumption and BTC risk. However, there was evidence of inverse correlation between coffee consumption and liver cancer risk. The association was consistent throughout the various potential confounding factors explored including smoking status, hepatitis, etc. Increasing coffee consumption by one cup per day was associated with a 15% reduction in liver cancer risk (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.82 to 0.88). The findings suggest that increased coffee consumption is associated with decreased risk of liver cancer, but not BTC.

Coffee Consumption and Risk of Biliary Tract Cancers and Liver Cancer: A Dose–Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Micek, Agnieszka; Marranzano, Marina; Ray, Sumantra

2017-01-01

Background: A meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from prospective cohort and case-control studies regarding the association between coffee intake and biliary tract cancer (BTC) and liver cancer risk. Methods: Eligible studies were identified by searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from the earliest available online indexing year to March 2017. The dose–response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model and multivariate random-effect meta-regression. A stratified and subgroup analysis by smoking status and hepatitis was performed to identify potential confounding factors. Results: We identified five studies on BTC risk and 13 on liver cancer risk eligible for meta-analysis. A linear dose–response meta-analysis did not show a significant association between coffee consumption and BTC risk. However, there was evidence of inverse correlation between coffee consumption and liver cancer risk. The association was consistent throughout the various potential confounding factors explored including smoking status, hepatitis, etc. Increasing coffee consumption by one cup per day was associated with a 15% reduction in liver cancer risk (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.82 to 0.88). Conclusions: The findings suggest that increased coffee consumption is associated with decreased risk of liver cancer, but not BTC. PMID:28846640

Motorcoach Fire Safety Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

This purpose of this study was to collect and analyze information from Government, industry, and media sources on the causes, frequency, and severity of motorcoach fires in the U.S., and to identify potential risk reduction measures. The Volpe Center...

Optimisation of decentralisation for effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through the case study of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grady, A.; Makarigakis, A.; Gersonius, B.

2015-09-01

This paper investigates how to optimise decentralisation for effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) in developing states. There is currently limited literature on empirical analysis of decentralisation for DRR. This paper evaluates decentralised governance for DRR in the case study of Indonesia and provides recommendations for its optimisation. Wider implications are drawn to optimise decentralisation for DRR in developing states more generally. A framework to evaluate the institutional and policy setting was developed which necessitated the use of a gap analysis, desk study and field investigation. Key challenges to decentralised DRR include capacity gaps at lower levels, low compliance with legislation, disconnected policies, issues in communication and coordination and inadequate resourcing. DRR authorities should lead coordination and advocacy on DRR. Sustainable multistakeholder platforms and civil society organisations should fill the capacity gap at lower levels. Dedicated and regulated resources for DRR should be compulsory.

Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part II: Descriptive Analysis of Identified Twitter Activity during the 2013 Hattiesburg F4 Tornado

PubMed Central

Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M.; Subbarao, Italo

2015-01-01

Background: This article describes a novel triangulation methodological approach for identifying twitter activity of regional active twitter users during the 2013 Hattiesburg EF-4 Tornado. Methodology: A data extraction and geographically centered filtration approach was utilized to generate Twitter data for 48 hrs pre- and post-Tornado. The data was further validated using six sigma approach utilizing GPS data. Results: The regional analysis revealed a total of 81,441 tweets, 10,646 Twitter users, 27,309 retweets and 2637 tweets with GPS coordinates. Conclusions: Twitter tweet activity increased 5 fold during the response to the Hattiesburg Tornado.  Retweeting activity increased 2.2 fold. Tweets with a hashtag increased 1.4 fold. Twitter was an effective disaster risk reduction tool for the Hattiesburg EF-4 Tornado 2013.  PMID:26203396

Cut set-based risk and reliability analysis for arbitrarily interconnected networks

DOEpatents

Wyss, Gregory D.

2000-01-01

Method for computing all-terminal reliability for arbitrarily interconnected networks such as the United States public switched telephone network. The method includes an efficient search algorithm to generate minimal cut sets for nonhierarchical networks directly from the network connectivity diagram. Efficiency of the search algorithm stems in part from its basis on only link failures. The method also includes a novel quantification scheme that likewise reduces computational effort associated with assessing network reliability based on traditional risk importance measures. Vast reductions in computational effort are realized since combinatorial expansion and subsequent Boolean reduction steps are eliminated through analysis of network segmentations using a technique of assuming node failures to occur on only one side of a break in the network, and repeating the technique for all minimal cut sets generated with the search algorithm. The method functions equally well for planar and non-planar networks.

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

2014-03-25

Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

Mitigating flood exposure: Reducing disaster risk and trauma signature.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city's worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods . We applied the "trauma signature analysis" (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results . Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion . In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation.

Comparison of arthroscopic reduction and percutaneous fixation and open reduction and internal fixation for tibial plateau fractures.

PubMed

Sun, Yufu; Sun, Kai; Jiang, Wenxue

2018-06-01

To conduct a meta-analysis with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in full text to demonstrate database to show the associations of perioperative, postoperative outcomes of arthroscopic reduction and percutaneous fixation(ARPF) and open reduction and internal fixation(ORIF) for tibial plateau fractures to provide the predictive diagnosis for clinic. Literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library for information from the earliest date of data collection to June 2017. RCTs comparing the benefits and risks of ARPF with those of ORIF in tibial plateau fractures were included. Statistical heterogeneity was quantitatively evaluated by X 2 test with the significance set P < 0.10 or I 2  > 50%. Seven RCTs consisting of 571 patients were included.(288 ARPF patients; 283 ORIF patients;). Pooled results showed that ORIF was related to a greater increase in operative time, incision length, hospital stay, perioperative complications, and full weight bearing compared with ARPF. The results showed that ARPF was related to a greater increase in ROM Rasmussen Scores compared with ORIF (WMD = 10.38; 95% CI, 8.31, 12.45; P < 0.10). This meta-analysis showed that arthroscopic reduction and percutaneous fixation for tibial plateau fractures, compared with open reduction and internal fixation, could demonstrate an decreased risk of perioperative and postoperative complications and improve clinical outcome in operative time, incision length, hospital stay, perioperative complications, full weight bearing and Rasmussen Scores. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intervenable factors associated with suicide risk in transgender persons: a respondent driven sampling study in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Bauer, Greta R; Scheim, Ayden I; Pyne, Jake; Travers, Robb; Hammond, Rebecca

2015-06-02

Across Europe, Canada, and the United States, 22-43 % of transgender (trans) people report a history of suicide attempts. We aimed to identify intervenable factors (related to social inclusion, transphobia, or sex/gender transition) associated with reduced risk of past-year suicide ideation or attempt, and to quantify the potential population health impact. The Trans PULSE respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey collected data from trans people age 16+ in Ontario, Canada, including 380 who reported on suicide outcomes. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models were weighted using RDS II methods. Counterfactual risk ratios and population attributable risks were estimated using model-standardized risks. Among trans Ontarians, 35.1 % (95 % CI: 27.6, 42.5) seriously considered, and 11.2 % (95 % CI: 6.0, 16.4) attempted, suicide in the past year. Social support, reduced transphobia, and having any personal identification documents changed to an appropriate sex designation were associated with large relative and absolute reductions in suicide risk, as was completing a medical transition through hormones and/or surgeries (when needed). Parental support for gender identity was associated with reduced ideation. Lower self-reported transphobia (10(th) versus 90(th) percentile) was associated with a 66 % reduction in ideation (RR = 0.34, 95 % CI: 0.17, 0.67), and an additional 76 % reduction in attempts among those with ideation (RR = 0.24; 95 % CI: 0.07, 0.82). This corresponds to potential prevention of 160 ideations per 1000 trans persons, and 200 attempts per 1,000 with ideation, based on a hypothetical reduction of transphobia from current levels to the 10(th) percentile. Large effect sizes were observed for this controlled analysis of intervenable factors, suggesting that interventions to increase social inclusion and access to medical transition, and to reduce transphobia, have the potential to contribute to substantial reductions in the extremely high prevalences of suicide ideation and attempts within trans populations. Such interventions at the population level may require policy change.

Work as a street vendor, associated traffic-related air pollution exposures and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in Accra, Ghana.

PubMed

Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2014-03-01

Street vending, a dominant occupation in urban areas of developing countries exposes the vendors to several environmental pollutants. We investigated whether work as street vendor impairs foetal growth and shortens gestational duration, and evaluated to what extent exposure to traffic-related air pollution is responsible for these adverse effects. A cross-sectional study was conducted among mothers and their newborns accessing postnatal services at the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Ghana in 2010, focusing on 105 street vendors and a reference group of 281 mothers. We categorized exposure to traffic-related air pollution on the basis of street vending activity patterns and traffic density in the working area. Multivariate linear regression analysis adjusting for age, social class, marital status and gravidity of mothers, sex of neonate, and indoor air pollution, indicated a 177 g (95% CI: 324, 31) reduction in birth weight among street vendors. Sensitivity analysis performed by restricting the analysis to term births showed further reductions in birth weight. Generalized linear models adjusting for confounders indicated a 35% (risk ratio (RR)=1.35; 95% CI: 0.87, 2.12) increased risk of LBW, albeit statistically not significant. LBW risk increased in the sensitivity analysis but was also not statistically significant. The risk of PTB was not associated with street vending (RR=1.03; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.58). The exposure-response relations observed were not consistent. Moderate activity patterns and high traffic density jointly was associated with a statistically significant 84% (RR=1.84; 95% CI: 1.05, 3.24) increased risk of LBW. Street vending during pregnancy is a determinant of average foetal growth and risk of LBW. More research is required to further quantify their effects on pregnancy outcomes and safeguard maternal and perinatal health in developing countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Clinical and metabolic outcomes in pregnant women at risk for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus supplemented with myo-inositol. A secondary analysis from 3 RCTs.

PubMed

Santamaria, A; Alibrandi, A; Di Benedetto, A; Pintaudi, B; Corrado, F; Facchinetti, F; D'Anna, R

2018-05-30

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) is defined as carbohydrate intolerance that; begins or it is first recognized during pregnancy. Insulin sensitizing substances as Myo-inositol have been considered for the prevention of GDM and related complications. Since previous studies failed to show a clear reduction of GDM complications, the aim of this study was to evaluate clinical and metabolic outcomes in women at risk for gestational diabetes mellitus supplemented with myo-inositol since first trimester. A secondary analysis of databases from 3 randomized, controlled trials (595 women enrolled), in which women at risk for GDM (a parent with type 2 diabetes, obese or overweight) were supplemented with myo-inositol (4g/day) throughout pregnancy. Main measures were the rate of adverse clinical outcomes: macrosomia (birth weight ≥ 4000 g), Large for Gestational Age babies (fetal growth ≥ 90° centile), Fetal Growth Restriction (fetal growth ≤ 3° percentile), pre-term birth (delivery before the 37° week since the last menstruation), gestational hypertension and GDM. A significant reduction was observed for pre-term birth (10/291, 3.4% vs 23/304, 7.6%, p=0.03), macrosomia (6/291, 2.1% vs 16/304, 5.3%, p=0.04), LGA babies (14/291, 4.8% vs 27/304, 8.9 %,p=0.04) with only a trend to significance for gestational hypertension (4/291, 1.4% vs 12/304, 3.9%, p=0.07). GDM diagnosis was also decreased when compared to control group (32/291, 11.0% vs 77/304, 25.3%, p<0.001). At univariate logistic regression analysis myo-inositol treatment reduced the risk for pre-term birth (OR 0.44, CI 0.20 - 0.93), macrosomia (OR 0.38, CI 0.14 - 0.98) and GDM diagnosis (OR 0.36, CI 0.23 - 0.57). Myo-inositol treatment in early pregnancy is associated with a reduction in the rate of GDM and in the risk of preterm birth and macrosomia in women at risk for GDM. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using analogues to quantify geological uncertainty in stochastic reserve modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wells, B.; Brown, I.

1995-08-01

The petroleum industry seeks to minimize exploration risk by employing the best possible expertise, methods and tools. Is it possible to quantify the success of this process of risk reduction? Due to inherent uncertainty in predicting geological reality and due to changing environments for hydrocarbon exploration, it is not enough simply to record the proportion of successful wells drilled; in various parts of the world it has been noted that pseudo-random drilling would apparently have been as successful as the actual drilling programme. How, then, should we judge the success of risk reduction? For many years the E&P industry hasmore » routinely used Monte Carlo modelling to generate a probability distribution for prospect reserves. One aspect of Monte Carlo modelling which has received insufficient attention, but which is essential for quantifying risk reduction, is the consistency and repeatability with which predictions can be made. Reducing the subjective element inherent in the specification of geological uncertainty allows better quantification of uncertainty in the prediction of reserves, in both exploration and appraisal. Building on work reported at the AAPG annual conventions in 1994 and 1995, the present paper incorporates analogue information with uncertainty modelling. Analogues provide a major step forward in the quantification of risk, but their significance is potentially greater still. The two principal contributors to uncertainty in field and prospect analysis are the hydrocarbon life-cycle and the geometry of the trap. These are usually treated separately. Combining them into a single model is a major contribution to the reduction risk. This work is based in part on a joint project with Oryx Energy UK Ltd., and thanks are due in particular to Richard Benmore and Mike Cooper.« less

Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

2014-05-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study through the project "Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador", funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

[Analysis of lifestyle and risk factors of atherosclerosis in students of selected universities in Krakow].

PubMed

Skrzypek, Agnieszka; Szeliga, Marta; Stalmach-Przygoda, Agata; Kowalska, Bogumila; Jabłoński, Konrad; Nowakowski, Michal

Reduction of risk factors of atherosclerosis, lifestyle modification significantly cause the reduction in the incidence, morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Objective: To evaluate cardiovascular risk factors and analyze the lifestyle of students finishing the first year of studies at selected universities in Krakow. The study was performed in 2015roku. 566 students finishing the first year of study, including 319 (56.4%) men and 247 (43.6%) women were examined. The students were in age from 18 to 27 years, an average of 20.11± 1.15 years. They represented 6 different universities in Cracow. In order to assess eating habits, lifestyle and analysis of risk factors of cardiovascular disease was used method of diagnostic survey using the survey technique. BMI was calculated from anthropometric measurements. The program Statistica 12.0 were used in statistical analysis. The analysis showed that most fruits and vegetables consume UR students and AWF, least of AGH. Only 34.8% of students regularly consume fish of the sea, there were no significant differences between universities. Sports frequently cultivate the students of AWF (93% of the students of this university). Academy of Fine Arts students drink the most coffee. Students of AGH frequently consume alcohol. 60% of all students never tried drugs, but only 25.7% of student of Fine Arts never tried drugs. Overweight occurs in 12.6% of students, and obesity in 1.1%. The most risk factors of atherosclerosis occur in students of AGH and ASP. The results of the study clearly indicate on the necessity of implementation of prevention and improvement of health behaviors in students of AGH and ASP universities.

Chemoprevention of colorectal cancer: systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Cooper, K; Squires, H; Carroll, C; Papaioannou, D; Booth, A; Logan, R F; Maguire, C; Hind, D; Tappenden, P

2010-06-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the UK: incidence increases with age, median age at diagnosis being over 70 years. Approximately 25% of cases occur in individuals with a family history of CRC, including 5% caused by familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) or hereditary non-polyposis CRC (HNPCC). Most develop from adenomatous polyps arising from the intestine lining. Individuals with these polyps undergo polypectomy and are invited for endoscopic surveillance. Screening via faecal occult blood testing has been rolled out across the UK. To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of drug and micronutrient interventions for the prevention of CRC and/or adenomatous polyps. Interventions considered include: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including aspirin and cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors; folic acid; calcium; vitamin D and antioxidants (including vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin E, selenium and beta-carotene). Chemoprevention was assessed in the general population, in individuals at increased risk of CRC, and in individuals with FAP or HNPCC. A systematic review identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) assessing drug and nutritional agents for the prevention of CRC or adenomatous polyps. A separate search identified qualitative studies relating to individuals' views, attitudes and beliefs about chemoprevention. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane CENTRAL Register of Controlled Trials, DARE, NHS-EED (NHS Economic Evaluation Database), HTA database, Science Citation Index, BIOSIS previews and the Current Controlled Trials research register were searched in June 2008. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. The synthesis methods used were systematic review and meta-analysis for RCTs and qualitative framework synthesis for qualitative studies. A health economic model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of chemoprevention for two populations with different levels of risk of developing CRC: the general population and an intermediate-risk population. The search identified 44 relevant RCTs and six ongoing studies. A small study of aspirin in FAP patients produced no statistically significant reduction in polyp number but a possible reduction in polyp size. There was a statistically significant 21% reduction in risk of adenoma recurrence [relative risk (RR) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 0.92] in an analysis of aspirin versus no aspirin in individuals with a history of adenomas or CRC. In the general population, a significant 26% reduction in CRC incidence was demonstrated in studies with a 23-year follow-up (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.97). Non-aspirin NSAID use in FAP individuals produced a non-statistically significant reduction in adenoma incidence after 4 years of treatment and follow-up and reductions in polyp number and size. In individuals with a history of adenomas there was a statistically significant 34% reduction in adenoma recurrence risk (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.72) and a statistically significant 55% reduction in advanced adenoma incidence (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58). No studies assessed the effect of non-aspirin NSAIDs in the general population. There were no studies of folic acid in individuals with FAP or HNPCC. There was no significant effect of folic acid versus placebo on adenoma recurrence (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.39) or advanced adenoma incidence in individuals with a history of adenomas. In the general population there was no significant effect of folic acid on risk of CRC (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.64), although studies were of relatively short duration. Calcium use by FAP patients produced no significant reduction in polyp number or disease progression. In individuals with a history of adenomas there was a statistically significant 18% reduction in risk of adenoma recurrence (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.98) and a non-significant reduction in risk of advanced adenomas (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.17). In the general population there was no significant effect of calcium on risk of CRC (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.34), although studies were of relatively short duration. There were no studies of antioxidant use in individuals with FAP or HNPCC, and in individuals with a history of adenomas no statistically significant differences in relative risk of adenoma recurrence were found. In the general population there was no difference in incidence of CRC (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.13) with antioxidant use compared with no antioxidant use. Twenty studies reported qualitative findings concerning chemoprevention. People are more likely to use NSAIDs if there is a strong perceived need. Perceptions of risk and benefit also influence decision-making and use. People have fewer concerns about using antioxidants or other supplements, but their perception of the benefits of these agents is less well-defined. The model analysis suggested that the most cost-effective age-range policy in the general population would be to provide chemoprevention to all individuals within the general population from age 50 to 60 years. The use of aspirin in addition to screening within the general population is likely to result in a discounted cost per life-year gained of around 10,000 pounds and a discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of around 23,000 pounds compared with screening alone. In the intermediate-risk group the most economically viable age-range policy would be to provide chemoprevention to individuals following polypectomy aged 61 to 70 years. Calcium is likely to have a discounted cost per QALY gained of around 8000 pounds compared with screening alone. Although aspirin in addition to screening should be more effective and less costly than screening alone, under the current assumptions of benefits to harms of aspirin and calcium, aspirin is expected to be extendedly dominated by calcium. Whilst a number of studies were included in the review, the duration of follow-up was generally insufficient to detect an effect on cancer incidence. Given the uncertainties and ambiguities in the evidence base, the results of the health economic analysis should be interpreted with caution. Aspirin and celecoxib may reduce recurrence of adenomas and incidence of advanced adenomas in individuals with an increased risk of CRC and calcium may reduce recurrence of adenomas in this group. COX-2 inhibitors may decrease polyp number in patients with FAP. There is some evidence for aspirin reducing the incidence of CRC in the general population. Both aspirin and NSAIDs are associated with adverse effects so it will be important to consider the risk-benefit ratio before recommending these agents for chemoprevention. The economic analysis suggests that chemoprevention has the potential to represent a cost-effective intervention, particularly when targeted at intermediate-risk populations following polypectomy.

Dietary salt intake and risk of gastric cancer.

PubMed

D'Elia, Lanfranco; Galletti, Ferruccio; Strazzullo, Pasquale

2014-01-01

Humans began to use large amounts of salt for the main purpose of food preservation approximately 5,000 years ago and, although since then advanced technologies have been developed allowing drastic reduction in the use of salt for food storage, excess dietary salt intake remains very common. Gastric cancer is a common neoplasia, and dietary factors, including salt consumption, are considered relevant to its causation. A number of experimental studies supported the cocarcinogenic effect of salt through synergic action with Helicobacter pylori infection, in addition to some independent effects such as increase in the rate of cell proliferation and of endogenous mutations. Many epidemiological studies analyzed the relationship between excess salt intake and risk of gastric cancer. Both cross-sectional and prospective studies indicated a possibly dose-dependent positive association. In particular, a comprehensive meta-analysis of longitudinal studies detected a strong adverse effect of total salt intake and salt-rich foods on the risk of gastric cancer in the general population. Altogether, the epidemiological, clinical, and experimental evidence supports the possibility of a substantial reduction in the rates of gastric cancer through progressive reduction in population salt intake.

Profile of elementary school science teacher instruction in disaster risk reduction: case study of volcano disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pujianto; Prabowo; Wasis

2018-04-01

This study examined the profile of science' teacher instruction in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), as a feature of instructional quality, on students’ learning experiences. A qualitative study was done to observe teacher activities in teaching of disaster preparedness. Science teacher and 14 students at grade 4 of SDN (elementary school) Kiyaran 2 are involved as the subject of this study. Teacher’ instruction was coded with regard to preparation, action, and evaluation using observation sheets and documentation. Data analysis results showed a positive significant effect of the readiness during preparation on learning process of disaster risk reduction and an indirect effect of teacher’ action on students’ learning experiences. There is a lack of teaching materials about volcano disaster in the elementary school. Teacher found difficulties on evaluation of student achievement in disaster preparedness. These findings highlight the importance of DRR in uphold science teachers’ education. Items of teachers’ skill in preparing of DRR may be used to offer model of concrete instruction situation during university workshop for maintain teacher education.

Risk reductions for cardiovascular disease with pravastatin treatment by dyslipidemia phenotype: a post hoc analysis of the MEGA Study.

PubMed

Nishiwaki, Masato; Ikewaki, Katsunori; Ayaori, Makoto; Mizuno, Kyoichi; Ohashi, Yasuo; Ohsuzu, Fumitaka; Ishikawa, Toshitsugu; Nakamura, Haruo

2013-03-01

The beneficial effect of statins for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention has been well established. However, the effectiveness among different phenotypes of dyslipidemia has not been confirmed. We evaluated the effect of pravastatin on the incidence of CVD in relation to the phenotype of dyslipidemia. The MEGA Study evaluated the effect of low-dose pravastatin on primary prevention of CVD in 7832 Japanese patients, who were randomized to diet alone or diet plus pravastatin and followed for more than 5 years. These patients were classified into phenotype IIa (n=5589) and IIb (n=2041) based on the electrophoretic pattern for this post hoc analysis. In the diet group there was no significant difference in the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD, and total mortality between the two phenotypes. Phenotype IIb patients, compared to phenotype IIa, had lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and a significantly higher incidence of CVD in relation to a low HDL-C level (<47.5mg/dL; p=0.02). Furthermore, pravastatin decreased the relative risk for each major endpoint in both type IIa and type IIb dyslipidemia. Significant risk reductions were observed for CHD by 38% (p=0.04) and CVD by 31% (p=0.02) in type IIa dyslipidemia but not in phenotype IIb. Pravastatin therapy provided significant risk reductions for CHD and CVD in patients with phenotype IIa dyslipidemia, but not in those with phenotype IIb dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2012 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials and Prospective Cohort Studies of Eicosapentaenoic and Docosahexaenoic Long-Chain Omega-3 Fatty Acids and Coronary Heart Disease Risk.

PubMed

Alexander, Dominik D; Miller, Paige E; Van Elswyk, Mary E; Kuratko, Connye N; Bylsma, Lauren C

2017-01-01

To conduct meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to estimate the effect of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acid (EPA+DHA) on coronary heart disease (CHD), and to conduct meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies to estimate the association between EPA+DHA intake and CHD risk. A systematic literature search of Ovid/Medline, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 1947, to November 2, 2015, was conducted; 18 RCTs and 16 prospective cohort studies examining EPA+DHA from foods or supplements and CHD, including myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, coronary death, and angina, were identified. Random-effects meta-analysis models were used to generate summary relative risk estimates (SRREs) and 95% CIs. Heterogeneity was examined in subgroup and sensitivity analyses and by meta-regression. Dose-response was evaluated in stratified dose or intake analyses. Publication bias assessments were performed. Among RCTs, there was a nonstatistically significant reduction in CHD risk with EPA+DHA provision (SRRE=0.94; 95% CI, 0.85-1.05). Subgroup analyses of data from RCTs indicated a statistically significant CHD risk reduction with EPA+DHA provision among higher-risk populations, including participants with elevated triglyceride levels (SRRE=0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.98) and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (SRRE=0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.98). Meta-analysis of data from prospective cohort studies resulted in a statistically significant SRRE of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.92) for higher intakes of EPA+DHA and risk of any CHD event. Results indicate that EPA+DHA may be associated with reducing CHD risk, with a greater benefit observed among higher-risk populations in RCTs. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative analysis and reduction of the eco-toxicity risk of heavy metals for the fine fraction of automobile shredder residue (ASR) using H2O2.

PubMed

Singh, Jiwan; Yang, Jae-Kyu; Chang, Yoon-Young

2016-02-01

Automobile shredder residue (ASR) fraction (size <0.25mm) can be considered as hazardous due to presence of high concentrations of heavy metals. Hydrogen peroxide combined with nitric acid has been used for the recovery of heavy metals (Zn, Cu, Mn, Fe, Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr) from the fine fraction of ASR. A sequential extraction procedure has also been used to determine the heavy metal speciation in the fine fraction of ASR before and after treatment. A risk analysis of the fine fraction of ASR before and after treatment was conducted to assess the bioavailability and eco-toxicity of heavy metals. These results showed that the recovery of heavy metals from ASR increased with an increase in the hydrogen peroxide concentration. A high concentration of heavy metals was found to be present in Cbio fractions (the sum of the exchangeable and carbonate fractions) in the fine fraction of ASR, indicating high toxicity risk. The Cbio rate of all selected heavy metals was found to range from 8.6% to 33.4% of the total metal content in the fine fraction of ASR. After treatment, Cbio was reduced to 0.3-3.3% of total metal upon a treatment with 2.0% hydrogen peroxide. On the basis of the risk assessment code (RAC), the environmental risk values for heavy metals in the fine fraction of ASR reflect high risk/medium risk. However, after treatment, the heavy metals would be categorized as low risk/no risk. The present study concludes that hydrogen peroxide combined with nitric acid is a promising treatment for the recovery and reduction of the eco-toxicity risk of heavy metals in ASR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interventions for the prevention of falls in older adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

Chang, John T; Morton, Sally C; Rubenstein, Laurence Z; Mojica, Walter A; Maglione, Margaret; Suttorp, Marika J; Roth, Elizabeth A; Shekelle, Paul G

2004-01-01

Objective To assess the relative effectiveness of interventions to prevent falls in older adults to either a usual care group or control group. Design Systematic review and meta-analyses. Data sources Medline, HealthSTAR, Embase, the Cochrane Library, other health related databases, and the reference lists from review articles and systematic reviews. Data extraction Components of falls intervention: multifactorial falls risk assessment with management programme, exercise, environmental modifications, or education. Results 40 trials were identified. A random effects analysis combining trials with risk ratio data showed a reduction in the risk of falling (risk ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.95), whereas combining trials with incidence rate data showed a reduction in the monthly rate of falling (incidence rate ratio 0.80, 0.72 to 0.88). The effect of individual components was assessed by meta-regression. A multifactorial falls risk assessment and management programme was the most effective component on risk of falling (0.82, 0.72 to 0.94, number needed to treat 11) and monthly fall rate (0.63, 0.49 to 0.83; 11.8 fewer falls in treatment group per 100 patients per month). Exercise interventions also had a beneficial effect on the risk of falling (0.86, 0.75 to 0.99, number needed to treat 16) and monthly fall rate (0.86, 0.73 to 1.01; 2.7). Conclusions Interventions to prevent falls in older adults are effective in reducing both the risk of falling and the monthly rate of falling. The most effective intervention was a multifactorial falls risk assessment and management programme. Exercise programmes were also effective in reducing the risk of falling. PMID:15031239

Considering the risk of infection by cryptosporidium via consumption of municipally treated drinking water from a surface water source in a Southwestern Ontario community.

PubMed

Pintar, K D M; Fazil, A; Pollari, F; Waltner-Toews, D; Charron, D F; McEwen, S A; Walton, T

2012-07-01

Through the use of case-control analyses and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), relative risks of transmission of cryptosporidiosis have been evaluated (recreational water exposure vs. drinking water consumption) for a Canadian community with higher than national rates of cryptosporidiosis. A QMRA was developed to assess the risk of Cryptosporidium infection through the consumption of municipally treated drinking water. Simulations were based on site-specific surface water contamination levels and drinking water treatment log₁₀ reduction capacity for Cryptosporidium. Results suggested that the risk of Cryptosporidium infection via drinking water in the study community, assuming routine operation of the water treatment plant, was negligible (6 infections per 10¹³ persons per day--5th percentile: 2 infections per 10¹⁵ persons per day; 95th percentile: 3 infections per 10¹² persons per day). The risk is essentially nonexistent during optimized, routine treatment operations. The study community achieves between 7 and 9 log₁₀ Cryptosporidium oocyst reduction through routine water treatment processes. Although these results do not preclude the need for constant vigilance by both water treatment and public health professionals in this community, they suggest that the cause of higher rates of cryptosporidiosis are more likely due to recreational water contact, or perhaps direct animal contact. QMRA can be successfully applied at the community level to identify data gaps, rank relative public health risks, and forecast future risk scenarios. It is most useful when performed in a collaborative way with local stakeholders, from beginning to end of the risk analysis paradigm. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction.

PubMed

Malik, I S; Bhatia, V K; Kooner, J S

2001-05-01

To assess the cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment in patients at low, medium, and high risk of cardiovascular death. Population based cost effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the health care provider in the UK. Effectiveness was modelled using data from the HOPE (heart outcome prevention evaluation) trial. The life table method was used to predict mortality in a medium risk cohort, as in the HOPE trial (2.44% annual mortality), and in low and high risk groups (1% and 4.5% annual mortality, respectively). UK population using 1998 government actuary department data. Cost per life year gained at five years and lifetime treatment with ramipril. Cost effectiveness was pound36 600, pound13 600, and pound4000 per life year gained at five years and pound5300, pound1900, and pound100 per life year gained at 20 years (lifetime treatment) in low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively. Cost effectiveness at 20 years remained well below that of haemodialysis ( pound25 000 per life year gained) over a range of potential drug costs and savings. Treatment of the HOPE population would cost the UK National Health Service (NHS) an additional pound360 million but would prevent 12 000 deaths per annum. Ramipril is cost effective treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients at medium, high, and low pretreatment risk, with a cost effectiveness comparable with the use of statins. Implementation of ramipril treatment in a medium risk population would result in a major reduction in cardiovascular deaths but would increase annual NHS spending by pound360 million.

Electronic Packaging for Space Applications Workshop 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandor, Mike; Agarwal, Shri; Villegas, Enrique

1999-01-01

This paper presents viewgraphs on the Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Program. The topics include: 1) Advocacy for COTS; 2) MARS01 Program/Requirements; 3) MARS01 COTS Screening Flow; 4) Test Results-Electrical, C-Sam, Burn-In; 5) Value Added Analysis (Risk Reduction); 6) Value Added Analysis (Cost); 7) Impact of COTS ++ Screening and 8) Summary.

PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INSTALLATION AND OPERATING COSTS OF ACTIVE SOIL DEPRESSURIZATION SYSTEMS FOR RESIDENTIAL RADON MITIGATION

EPA Science Inventory

The report gives results of a recent analysis showing that cost- effective indoor radon reduction technology is required for houses with initial radon concentrations < 4 pCi/L, because 78-86% of the national lung cancer risk due to radon is associated with those houses. ctive soi...

76 FR 40320 - Risk Reduction Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-08

... identifying and analyzing applicable hazards and (2) develops plans to mitigate that risk. Each RRP is...-2009-0038] RIN 2130-AC11 Risk Reduction Program AGENCY: Federal Railroad Administration (FRA... certain railroads to develop a Risk Reduction Program (RRP). The Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008...

Parity and osteoporotic fracture risk in postmenopausal women: a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Wang, Q; Huang, Q; Zeng, Y; Liang, J-J; Liu, S-Y; Gu, X; Liu, J-A

2016-01-01

The present dose-response meta-analysis shows linearly decreased hip fracture (HF) risk and nonlinearly decreased osteoporotic fracture (OF) risk associated with increasing number of parity of up to five live births among postmenopausal women. Epidemiological reports suggest that parity is associated with reduced OF risk among women. However, these findings are controversial. Here, we present a meta-analysis of prospective studies of parity in relation to OF risk. We performed systematic searches using Medline and Embase from January 1, 1966, to December 31, 2014, with limits of language in English and prospective study design. Relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were derived mainly using random-effects models. Categorical, dose-response, heterogeneity, publication bias, and subgroup analyses were conducted. We analyzed 10 articles of 19 independent reports from 1966 to 2014, comprising a total of 217,295 participants and 26,525 cases of OF. Compared to nulliparous women, the OF and HF risks of parous women with at least one live birth were reduced by 11 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 3-19 %; I (2) = 77.1 %, p < 0.001) and 26 % (95 % CI 17-35 %; I (2) = 19.5 %, p = 0.287), respectively. Representative nonlinearly and linearly inverse dose-response associations were found between parity (range of 0-6) and OF risk (p nonlinearity = 0.0163; I (2) = 79.7 %, p < 0.001), and between parity (range of 0-5) and HF risk (p nonlinearity = 0.054; I (2) = 76.5 %, p < 0.001), respectively. The lowest risk reduction for OF of 25 % (95 % CI 16-33 %) was observed for five live births. And, the summary risk reduction for HF was 12 % (95 % CI 9-15 %) for each one increased live birth. We found that increasing number of parity is associated with linearly reduced HF risks among women. The association between parity of six or more live births and HF risks should be studied further in future.

Association Between Baseline LDL-C Level and Total and Cardiovascular Mortality After LDL-C Lowering: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Navarese, Eliano P; Robinson, Jennifer G; Kowalewski, Mariusz; Kolodziejczak, Michalina; Andreotti, Felicita; Bliden, Kevin; Tantry, Udaya; Kubica, Jacek; Raggi, Paolo; Gurbel, Paul A

2018-04-17

Effects on specific fatal and nonfatal end points appear to vary for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering drug trials. To evaluate whether baseline LDL-C level is associated with total and cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. Electronic databases (Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, TCTMD, ClinicalTrials.gov, major congress proceedings) were searched through February 2, 2018, to identify randomized clinical trials of statins, ezetimibe, and PCSK9-inhibiting monoclonal antibodies. Two investigators abstracted data and appraised risks of bias. Intervention groups were categorized as "more intensive" (more potent pharmacologic intervention) or "less intensive" (less potent, placebo, or control group). The coprimary end points were total mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Random-effects meta-regression and meta-analyses evaluated associations between baseline LDL-C level and reductions in mortality end points and secondary end points including major adverse cardiac events (MACE). In 34 trials, 136 299 patients received more intensive and 133 989 received less intensive LDL-C lowering. All-cause mortality was lower for more vs less intensive therapy (7.08% vs 7.70%; rate ratio [RR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.88 to 0.96]), but varied by baseline LDL-C level. Meta-regression showed more intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with greater reductions in all-cause mortality with higher baseline LDL-C levels (change in RRs per 40-mg/dL increase in baseline LDL-C, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.96]; P = .001; absolute risk difference [ARD], -1.05 incident cases per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -1.59 to -0.51]), but only when baseline LDL-C levels were 100 mg/dL or greater (P < .001 for interaction) in a meta-analysis. Cardiovascular mortality was lower for more vs less intensive therapy (3.48% vs 4.07%; RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.79 to 0.89]) but varied by baseline LDL-C level. Meta-regression showed more intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with a greater reduction in cardiovascular mortality with higher baseline LDL-C levels (change in RRs per 40-mg/dL increase in baseline LDL-C, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94]; P < .001; ARD, -1.0 incident cases per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -1.51 to -0.45]), but only when baseline LDL-C levels were 100 mg/dL or greater (P < .001 for interaction) in a meta-analysis. Trials with baseline LDL-C levels of 160 mg/dL or greater had the greatest reduction in all-cause mortality (RR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.62 to 0.84]; P < .001; 4.3 fewer deaths per 1000 person-years) in a meta-analysis. More intensive LDL-C lowering was also associated with progressively greater risk reductions with higher baseline LDL-C level for myocardial infarction, revascularization, and MACE. In these meta-analyses and meta-regressions, more intensive compared with less intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with a greater reduction in risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in trials of patients with higher baseline LDL-C levels. This association was not present when baseline LDL-C level was less than 100 mg/dL, suggesting that the greatest benefit from LDL-C-lowering therapy may occur for patients with higher baseline LDL-C levels.

Quality Assurance with Plan Veto: reincarnation of a record and verify system and its potential value.

PubMed

Noel, Camille E; Gutti, Veerarajesh; Bosch, Walter; Mutic, Sasa; Ford, Eric; Terezakis, Stephanie; Santanam, Lakshmi

2014-04-01

To quantify the potential impact of the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise-Radiation Oncology Quality Assurance with Plan Veto (QAPV) on patient safety of external beam radiation therapy (RT) operations. An institutional database of events (errors and near-misses) was used to evaluate the ability of QAPV to prevent clinically observed events. We analyzed reported events that were related to Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine RT plan parameter inconsistencies between the intended treatment (on the treatment planning system) and the delivered treatment (on the treatment machine). Critical Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine RT plan parameters were identified. Each event was scored for importance using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis methodology. Potential error occurrence (frequency) was derived according to the collected event data, along with the potential event severity, and the probability of detection with and without the theoretical implementation of the QAPV plan comparison check. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) with and without QAPV were compared to quantify the potential benefit of clinical implementation of QAPV. The implementation of QAPV could reduce the RPN values for 15 of 22 (71%) of evaluated parameters, with an overall average reduction in RPN of 68 (range, 0-216). For the 6 high-risk parameters (>200), the average reduction in RPN value was 163 (range, 108-216). The RPN value reduction for the intermediate-risk (200 > RPN > 100) parameters was (0-140). With QAPV, the largest RPN value for "Beam Meterset" was reduced from 324 to 108. The maximum reduction in RPN value was for Beam Meterset (216, 66.7%), whereas the maximum percentage reduction was for Cumulative Meterset Weight (80, 88.9%). This analysis quantifies the value of the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise-Radiation Oncology QAPV implementation in clinical workflow. We demonstrate that although QAPV does not provide a comprehensive solution for error prevention in RT, it can have a significant impact on a subset of the most severe clinically observed events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit analysis of passive fire protections in road LPG transportation.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2012-02-01

The cost-benefit evaluation of passive fire protection adoption in the road transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was investigated. In a previous study, mathematical simulations of real scale fire scenarios proved the effectiveness of passive fire protections in preventing the "fired" boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), thus providing a significant risk reduction. In the present study the economical aspects of the adoption of fire protections are analyzed and an approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is proposed. The CBA model is based on the comparison of the risk reduction due to fire protections (expressed in monetary terms by the value of a statistical life) and the cost of the application of fire protections to a fleet of tankers. Different types of fire protections were considered, as well as the possibility to apply protections to the entire fleet or only to a part of it. The application of the proposed model to a real-life case study is presented and discussed. Results demonstrate that the adoption of passive fire protections on road tankers, though not compulsory in Europe, can be economically feasible, thus representing a concrete measure to achieve control of the "major hazard accidents" cited by the European legislation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Severe lymphopenia during neoadjuvant chemoradiation for esophageal cancer: A propensity matched analysis of the relative risk of proton versus photon-based radiation therapy.

PubMed

Shiraishi, Yutaka; Fang, Penny; Xu, Cai; Song, Juhee; Krishnan, Sunil; Koay, Eugene J; Mehran, Reza J; Hofstetter, Wayne L; Blum-Murphy, Mariela; Ajani, Jaffer A; Komaki, Ritsuko; Minsky, Bruce; Mohan, Radhe; Hsu, Charles C; Hobbs, Brian P; Lin, Steven H

2017-12-13

Circulating lymphocytes are exquisitely sensitive to radiation exposure, even to low scattered doses which can vary drastically between radiation modalities. We compared the relative risk of radiation-induced lymphopenia between intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) or proton beam therapy (PBT) in esophageal cancer (EC) patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (nCRT). EC patients treated with IMRT and PBT were propensity matched based on key clinical variables. Treatment-associated lymphopenia was graded using CTCAE v.4.0. Using matched cohorts, univariate and multivariable multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with increased risk of grade 4 lymphopenia as well as characterize their relative contributions. Among the 480 patients treated with nCRT, 136 IMRT patients were propensity score matched with 136 PBT patients. In the matched groups, a greater proportion of the IMRT patients (55/136, 40.4%) developed grade 4 lymphopenia during nCRT compared with the PBT patients (24/136, 17.6%, P < 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, PBT was significantly associated with a reduction in grade 4 lymphopenia risk (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.52; P < 0.0001). PBT is associated with significant risk reduction in grade 4 lymphopenia during nCRT in esophageal cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human errors and measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Evaluating the residual risk of human errors in a measurement and testing laboratory, remaining after the error reduction by the laboratory quality system, and quantifying the consequences of this risk for the quality of the measurement/test results are discussed based on expert judgments and Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure for evaluation of the contribution of the residual risk to the measurement uncertainty budget is proposed. Examples are provided using earlier published sets of expert judgments on human errors in pH measurement of groundwater, elemental analysis of geological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and multi-residue analysis of pesticides in fruits and vegetables. The human error contribution to the measurement uncertainty budget in the examples was not negligible, yet also not dominant. This was assessed as a good risk management result.

Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

Evaluation of Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality After Intensive Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Burgess, L Goodwin; Goyal, Nitin; Jones, G Morgan; Khorchid, Yasser; Kerro, Ali; Chapple, Kristina; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Alexandrov, Andrei V; Chang, Jason J

2018-04-13

We sought to assess the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality associated with intensive systolic blood pressure reduction in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. Patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage had spontaneous cause and symptom onset within 24 hours. We excluded patients with structural causes, coagulopathy, thrombocytopenia, and preexisting end-stage renal disease. We defined AKI using the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. Chronic kidney disease status was included in risk stratification and was defined by Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative staging. Maximum systolic blood pressure reduction was defined over a 12-hour period and dichotomized using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Descriptive statistics were done using independent sample t tests, χ 2 tests, and Mann-Whitney U tests, whereas multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate for predictors for AKI and mortality. A total of 448 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage met inclusion criteria. Maximum systolic blood pressure reduction was dichotomized to 90 mm Hg and found to increase the risk of AKI in patients with normal renal function (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-3.62; P =0.010) and chronic kidney disease (odds ratio, 3.91; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-12.15; P =0.019). The risk of AKI was not significantly different in normal renal function versus chronic kidney disease groups when adjusted for demographics, presentation characteristics, and medications associated with AKI. AKI positively predicted mortality for patients with normal renal function (odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-5.22; P =0.026) but not for patients with chronic kidney disease (odds ratio, 3.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-15.01; P =0.154). These results indicate that intensive systolic blood pressure reduction with a threshold >90 mm Hg in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage may be an independent predictor for AKI. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Correlation Between Residual Displacement and Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head Following Cannulated Screw Fixation of Femoral Neck Fractures.

PubMed

Wang, Chen; Xu, Gui-Jun; Han, Zhe; Jiang, Xuan; Zhang, Cheng-Bao; Dong, Qiang; Ma, Jian-Xiong; Ma, Xin-Long

2015-11-01

The aim of the study was to introduce a new method for measuring the residual displacement of the femoral head after internal fixation and explore the relationship between residual displacement and osteonecrosis with femoral head, and to evaluate the risk factors associated with osteonecrosis of the femoral head in patients with femoral neck fractures treated by closed reduction and percutaneous cannulated screw fixation.One hundred and fifty patients who sustained intracapsular femoral neck fractures between January 2011 and April 2013 were enrolled in the study. All were treated with closed reduction and percutaneous cannulated screw internal fixation. The residual displacement of the femoral head after surgery was measured by 3-dimensional reconstruction that evaluated the quality of the reduction. Other data that might affect prognosis were also obtained from outpatient follow-up, telephone calls, or case reviews. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to assess the intrinsic relationship between the risk factors and the osteonecrosis of the femoral head.Osteonecrosis of the femoral head occurred in 27 patients (18%). Significant differences were observed regarding the residual displacement of the femoral head and the preoperative Garden classification. Moreover, we found more or less residual displacement of femoral head in all patients with high quality of reduction based on x-ray by the new technique. There was a close relationship between residual displacement and ONFH.There exists limitation to evaluate the quality of reduction by x-ray. Three-dimensional reconstruction and digital measurement, as a new method, is a more accurate method to assess the quality of reduction. Residual displacement of the femoral head and the preoperative Garden classification were risk factors for osteonecrosis of the femoral head. High-quality reduction was necessary to avoid complications.

Space Launch System NASA Research Announcement Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crumbly, Christopher M.; Craig, Kellie D.

2011-01-01

The intent of the Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) effort is to: (1) Reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS (2) Enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Key Concepts (1) Offerors must propose an Advanced Booster concept that meets SLS Program requirements (2) Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction must relate to the Offeror s Advanced Booster concept (3) NASA Research Announcement (NRA) will not be prescriptive in defining Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction

Can we reduce the cost of illness with more compliant patients? An estimation of the effect of 100% compliance with hypertension treatment.

PubMed

Koçkaya, Güvenç; Wertheimer, Albert

2011-06-01

The current study was designed to calculate the direct cost of noncompliance of hypertensive patients to the US health system. Understanding these expenses can inform screening and education budget policy regarding expenditure levels that can be calculated to be cost-beneficial. The study was conducted in 3 parts. First, a computer search of National Institutes of Health Web sites and professional society Web sites for organizations with members that treat hypertension, and a PubMed search were performed to obtain the numbers required for calculations. Second, formulas were developed to estimate the risk of noncompliance and undiagnosed hypertension. Third, risk calculations were performed using the information obtained in part 1 and the formulas developed in part 2. Direct risk reduction for stroke caused by hypertension, heart attack, kidney disease, and heart disease was calculated for a 100% compliant strategy. Risk, case, and cost reduction for a 100% compliant strategy for hypertension were 32%, 8.5 million and US$ 72 billion, respectively. Our analysis means that the society can spend up to the cost of noncompliance in screening, education, and prevention efforts in an attempt to reduce these costly and traumatic sequelae of poorly controlled hypertension in the light of published analysis.

Rice Cakes Containing Dietary Fiber Supplemented with or without Artemisia Annua and Gynura Procumbens Merr. Alleviated the Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Yoon, Na Rae; Yoon, Sun; Lee, Seung-Min

2016-04-01

We investigated whether the consumption of Korean rice cakes enriched with dietary fiber with or without polyphenol rich plants might decrease the risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Rice cakes were manufactured using fructooligosaccharides, resistant starch, and psyllium as sources of dietary fibers with and without polyphenol rich Artemisia annua and Gynura procumbens Merr. (RC+FP and RC+F, respectively), and prepared in three forms (songpyeon, seolgidduk, and chaldduk). Ninety subjects with at least one MetS risk factor were recruited for 6 weeks of dietary intervention. Sixty subjects were finally included for the analysis. Compared to the initial values, RC+FP group had decreased levels of fasting blood glucose (FBG), HOMA-IR and blood pressure after 6 weeks, whereas RC+F group didn't have significant changes in them. Regarding the improvement of individual MetS risk factors, RC+FP group showed significant reduction in FBG and blood pressures but RC+F group only had reduction in systolic blood pressure. After the intervention, a reduction in the number of MetS risk factors was greatert in the RC+FP group than in the RC+F group. In conclusion, Dietary fiber enriched rice cakes with or without polyphenols decreased the number and/or the levels of MetS risk factors. Polyphenol rich plant components may provide additional health benefits in controlling FBG and blood pressure.

Rice Cakes Containing Dietary Fiber Supplemented with or without Artemisia Annua and Gynura Procumbens Merr. Alleviated the Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We investigated whether the consumption of Korean rice cakes enriched with dietary fiber with or without polyphenol rich plants might decrease the risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Rice cakes were manufactured using fructooligosaccharides, resistant starch, and psyllium as sources of dietary fibers with and without polyphenol rich Artemisia annua and Gynura procumbens Merr. (RC+FP and RC+F, respectively), and prepared in three forms (songpyeon, seolgidduk, and chaldduk). Ninety subjects with at least one MetS risk factor were recruited for 6 weeks of dietary intervention. Sixty subjects were finally included for the analysis. Compared to the initial values, RC+FP group had decreased levels of fasting blood glucose (FBG), HOMA-IR and blood pressure after 6 weeks, whereas RC+F group didn't have significant changes in them. Regarding the improvement of individual MetS risk factors, RC+FP group showed significant reduction in FBG and blood pressures but RC+F group only had reduction in systolic blood pressure. After the intervention, a reduction in the number of MetS risk factors was greatert in the RC+FP group than in the RC+F group. In conclusion, Dietary fiber enriched rice cakes with or without polyphenols decreased the number and/or the levels of MetS risk factors. Polyphenol rich plant components may provide additional health benefits in controlling FBG and blood pressure. PMID:27152297

Relationship between compliance and persistence with osteoporosis medications and fracture risk in primary health care in France: a retrospective case-control analysis.

PubMed

Cotté, François-Emery; Mercier, Florence; De Pouvourville, Gérard

2008-12-01

Nonadherence to treatment is an important determinant of long-term outcomes in women with osteoporosis. This study was conducted to investigate the association between adherence and osteoporotic fracture risk and to identify optimal thresholds for good compliance and persistence. A secondary objective was to perform a preliminary evaluation of the cost consequences of adherence. This was a retrospective case-control analysis. Data were derived from the Thales prescription database, which contains information on >1.6 million patients in the primary health care setting in France. Cases were women aged >or=50 years who had an osteoporosis-related fracture in 2006. For each case, 5 matched controls were randomly selected. Both compliance and persistence aspects of treatment adherence were examined. Compliance was estimated based on the medication possession ratio (MPR). Persistence was calculated as the time from the initial filling of a prescription for osteoporosis medication until its discontinuation. The mean (SD) MPR was lower in cases compared with controls (58.8% [34.7%] vs 72.1% [28.8%], respectively; P < 0.001). Cases were more likely than controls to discontinue osteoporosis treatment (50.0% vs 25.3%; P < 0.001), yielding a significantly lower proportion of patients who were still persistent at 1 year (34.1% vs 40.9%; P < 0.001). MPR was the best predictor of fracture risk, with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve that was higher than that for persistence (0.59 vs 0.55). The optimal MPR threshold for predicting fracture risk was >or=68.0%. Compared with less-compliant women, women who achieved this threshold had a 51% reduction in fracture risk. The difference in annual drug expenditure between women achieving this threshold and those who did not was approximately euro300. The optimal threshold for persistence with therapy was at least 6 months. Attaining this threshold was associated with a 28% reduction in fracture risk compared with less-persistent women. In this study, better treatment adherence was associated with a greater reduction in fracture risk. Compliance appeared to predict fracture risk better than did persistence.

Genetic risk, coronary heart disease events, and the clinical benefit of statin therapy: an analysis of primary and secondary prevention trials.

PubMed

Mega, J L; Stitziel, N O; Smith, J G; Chasman, D I; Caulfield, M; Devlin, J J; Nordio, F; Hyde, C; Cannon, C P; Sacks, F; Poulter, N; Sever, P; Ridker, P M; Braunwald, E; Melander, O; Kathiresan, S; Sabatine, M S

2015-06-06

Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. In this study, we tested whether or not a composite of these variants could ascertain the risk of both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events and identify those individuals who derive greater clinical benefit from statin therapy. A community-based cohort study (the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study) and four randomised controlled trials of both primary prevention (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary prevention (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) with statin therapy, comprising a total of 48,421 individuals and 3477 events, were included in these analyses. We studied the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent coronary heart disease, adjusting for traditional clinical risk factors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in coronary heart disease events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. We combined data from the different studies using a meta-analysis. When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient in risk for incident or recurrent coronary heart disease was shown. Compared with the low genetic risk category, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease for the intermediate genetic risk category was 1·34 (95% CI 1·22-1·47, p<0·0001) and that for the high genetic risk category was 1·72 (1·55-1·92, p<0·0001). In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomised trials, we noted a significant gradient (p=0·0277) of increasing relative risk reductions across the low (13%), intermediate (29%), and high (48%) genetic risk categories. Similarly, we noted greater absolute risk reductions in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (p=0·0101), resulting in a roughly threefold decrease in the number needed to treat to prevent one coronary heart disease event in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the number needed to treat to prevent one such event in 10 years was 66 in people at low genetic risk, 42 in those at intermediate genetic risk, and 25 in those at high genetic risk in JUPITER, and 57, 47, and 20, respectively, in ASCOT. A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events. People with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit from statin therapy. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The fibre-folate debate in colo-rectal cancer.

PubMed

Bingham, Sheila

2006-02-01

Intervention and prospective studies showing no effect of fibre in protection against colo-rectal cancer have challenged consensus recommendations that population intakes of fibre should be increased to reduce the risk of colo-rectal cancer. The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) of 519 978 individuals aged 25-70 years is the largest prospective study of diet and cancer to date worldwide. It incorporates ten different European countries in order to increase heterogeneity in dietary habits and calibration procedures to reduce measurement error. Data for 1065 reported cases of colo-rectal cancer were reported in 2003. There was a 40% reduction in risk for the highest quintile v. lowest quintile of fibre in food after calibration. It has been suggested that these effects were a result of confounding by folate and other factors. Although there are a number of hypotheses to explain why folate should be protective in colo-rectal cancer, a meta-analysis has shown that folate in food may be protective but there is no effect of total folate (i.e. food plus supplements). In a further analysis of 1826 cases in EPIC, identified in the latest follow-up, the inclusion of an additional 761 cases has confirmed the previously published results, with a strong and significant reduction in colo-rectal cancer of approximately 9% reduction in risk for each uncalibrated quintile increase in fibre (P<0.001 for linear trend) compared with an 8% reduction in the previous report, which had not been adjusted for folate. Inclusion of the other covariates (physical activity, alcohol, smoking and red and processed meat) with folate has confirmed this significant inverse association for colon cancer and strengthened the association with left-sided colon cancer (P < 0.001).

Surgeon specialization and operative mortality in United States: retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Sahni, Nikhil R; Dalton, Maurice; Cutler, David M; Birkmeyer, John D; Chandra, Amitabh

2016-07-21

 To measure the association between a surgeon's degree of specialization in a specific procedure and patient mortality.  Retrospective analysis of Medicare data.  US patients aged 66 or older enrolled in traditional fee for service Medicare.  25 152 US surgeons who performed one of eight procedures (carotid endarterectomy, coronary artery bypass grafting, valve replacement, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, lung resection, cystectomy, pancreatic resection, or esophagectomy) on 695 987 patients in 2008-13.  Relative risk reduction in risk adjusted and volume adjusted 30 day operative mortality between surgeons in the bottom quarter and top quarter of surgeon specialization (defined as the number of times the surgeon performed the specific procedure divided by his/her total operative volume across all procedures).  For all four cardiovascular procedures and two out of four cancer resections, a surgeon's degree of specialization was a significant predictor of operative mortality independent of the number of times he or she performed that procedure: carotid endarterectomy (relative risk reduction between bottom and top quarter of surgeons 28%, 95% confidence interval 0% to 48%); coronary artery bypass grafting (15%, 4% to 25%); valve replacement (46%, 37% to 53%); abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (42%, 29% to 53%); lung resection (28%, 5% to 46%); and cystectomy (41%, 8% to 63%). In five procedures (carotid endarterectomy, valve replacement, lung resection, cystectomy, and esophagectomy), the relative risk reduction from surgeon specialization was greater than that from surgeon volume for that specific procedure. Furthermore, surgeon specialization accounted for 9% (coronary artery bypass grafting) to 100% (cystectomy) of the relative risk reduction otherwise attributable to volume in that specific procedure.  For several common procedures, surgeon specialization was an important predictor of operative mortality independent of volume in that specific procedure. When selecting a surgeon, patients, referring physicians, and administrators assigning operative workload may want to consider a surgeon's procedure specific volume as well as the degree to which a surgeon specializes in that procedure. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

Intensive glycaemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

Lund, Søren S; Gluud, Christian; Vaag, Allan; Almdal, Thomas; Wetterslev, Jørn

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the effect of targeting intensive glycaemic control versus conventional glycaemic control on all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, microvascular complications, and severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Design Systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses of randomised trials. Data sources Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, and CINAHL to December 2010; hand search of reference lists and conference proceedings; contacts with authors, relevant pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration. Study selection Randomised clinical trials comparing targeted intensive glycaemic control with conventional glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. Published and unpublished trials in all languages were included, irrespective of predefined outcomes. Data extraction Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data related to study methods, interventions, outcomes, risk of bias, and adverse events. Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated with fixed and random effects models. Results Fourteen clinical trials that randomised 28 614 participants with type 2 diabetes (15 269 to intensive control and 13 345 to conventional control) were included. Intensive glycaemic control did not significantly affect the relative risks of all cause (1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.13; 28 359 participants, 12 trials) or cardiovascular mortality (1.11, 0.92 to 1.35; 28 359 participants, 12 trials). Trial sequential analyses rejected a relative risk reduction above 10% for all cause mortality and showed insufficient data on cardiovascular mortality. The risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction may be reduced (relative risk 0.85, 0.76 to 0.95; P=0.004; 28 111 participants, 8 trials), but this finding was not confirmed in trial sequential analysis. Intensive glycaemic control showed a reduction of the relative risks for the composite microvascular outcome (0.88, 0.79 to 0.97; P=0.01; 25 600 participants, 3 trials) and retinopathy (0.80, 0.67 to 0.94; P=0.009; 10 793 participants, 7 trials), but trial sequential analyses showed that sufficient evidence had not yet been reached. The estimate of an effect on the risk of nephropathy (relative risk 0.83, 0.64 to 1.06; 27 769 participants, 8 trials) was not statistically significant. The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was significantly increased when intensive glycaemic control was targeted (relative risk 2.39, 1.71 to 3.34; 27 844 participants, 9 trials); trial sequential analysis supported a 30% increased relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia. Conclusion Intensive glycaemic control does not seem to reduce all cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Data available from randomised clinical trials remain insufficient to prove or refute a relative risk reduction for cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, composite microvascular complications, or retinopathy at a magnitude of 10%. Intensive glycaemic control increases the relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia by 30%. PMID:22115901

Uncertainty importance analysis using parametric moment ratio functions.

PubMed

Wei, Pengfei; Lu, Zhenzhou; Song, Jingwen

2014-02-01

This article presents a new importance analysis framework, called parametric moment ratio function, for measuring the reduction of model output uncertainty when the distribution parameters of inputs are changed, and the emphasis is put on the mean and variance ratio functions with respect to the variances of model inputs. The proposed concepts efficiently guide the analyst to achieve a targeted reduction on the model output mean and variance by operating on the variances of model inputs. The unbiased and progressive unbiased Monte Carlo estimators are also derived for the parametric mean and variance ratio functions, respectively. Only a set of samples is needed for implementing the proposed importance analysis by the proposed estimators, thus the computational cost is free of input dimensionality. An analytical test example with highly nonlinear behavior is introduced for illustrating the engineering significance of the proposed importance analysis technique and verifying the efficiency and convergence of the derived Monte Carlo estimators. Finally, the moment ratio function is applied to a planar 10-bar structure for achieving a targeted 50% reduction of the model output variance. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

In search for genetic determinants of clinically meaningful differential cardiovascular event reduction by pravastatin in the PHArmacogenetic study of Statins in the Elderly at risk (PHASE)/PROSPER study.

PubMed

Postmus, Iris; Johnson, Paul C D; Trompet, Stella; de Craen, Anton J M; Slagboom, P Eline; Devlin, James J; Shiffman, Dov; Sacks, Frank M; Kearney, Patricia M; Stott, David J; Buckley, Brendan M; Sattar, Naveed; Ford, Ian; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Jukema, J Wouter

2014-07-01

Statin therapy is widely used in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular events and is associated with significant risk reductions. However, there is considerable variation in response to statin therapy both in terms of LDL cholesterol reduction and clinical outcomes. It has been hypothesized that genetic variation contributes importantly to this individual drug response. We investigated the interaction between genetic variants and pravastatin or placebo therapy on the incidence of cardiovascular events by performing a genome-wide association study in the participants of the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk for vascular disease--PHArmacogenetic study of Statins in the Elderly at risk (PROSPER/PHASE) study (n = 5244). We did not observe genome-wide significant associations with a clinically meaningful differential cardiovascular event reduction by pravastatin therapy. In addition, SNPs with p-values lower than 1 × 10(-4) were assessed for replication in a case-only analysis within two randomized placebo controlled pravastatin trials, CARE (n = 711) and WOSCOPS (n = 522). rs7102569, on chromosome 11 near the ODZ4 gene, was replicated in the CARE study (p = 0.008), however the direction of effect was opposite. This SNP was not associated in WOSCOPS. In addition, none of the SNPs replicated significantly after correcting for multiple testing. We could not identify genetic variation that was significantly associated at genome-wide level with a clinically meaningful differential event reduction by pravastatin treatment in a large prospective study. We therefore assume that in daily practice the use of genetic characteristics to personalize pravastatin treatment to improve prevention of cardiovascular disease will be limited. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bendectin and birth defects: I. A meta-analysis of the epidemiologic studies.

PubMed

McKeigue, P M; Lamm, S H; Linn, S; Kutcher, J S

1994-07-01

"Bendectin" (Doxylamine/Dicyclomine/Pyridoxine) was widely used for the treatment of nausea and vomiting of pregnancy until 1983, when production was discontinued in the face of lawsuits alleging that the drug caused congenital malformations. We have conducted a meta-analysis of the 16 cohort and 11 case-control studies that report birth defects from Bendectin-exposed pregnancies. This meta-analysis provides an estimate of the relative risk of malformation at birth in association with Bendectin exposure. The pooled estimate of the relative risk of any malformation at birth in association with exposure to Bendectin in the first trimester was 0.95 (95% Cl 0.88 to 1.04). Separate analyses were undertaken for cardiac defects, central nervous system defects, neural tube defects, limb reductions, oral clefts, and genital tract malformations. In these categories, the pooled estimates of relative risk ranged from 0.81 for oral clefts to 1.11 for limb reductions, with all 95% confidence intervals enclosing unity. With the exception of studies for oral clefts and for pyloric stenosis, tests for heterogeneity of association indicated for each table that all studies were estimating the same odds ratio. These studies, as a group, showed no difference in the risk of birth defects between those infants whose mothers had taken Bendectin during the first trimester of pregnancy and those infants whose mothers had not. It is unlikely that Bendectin exposure contributed to the prevalence of congenital malformations in the population.

Dietary fiber intake reduces risk for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Sun, Lingli; Zhang, Zhizhong; Xu, Jian; Xu, Gelin; Liu, Xinfeng

2017-09-02

Observational studies suggest an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. To conduct a meta-analysis of observational studies to assess this association. All eligible studies were identified by electronic searches in PubMed and Embase through February 2015. Dose-response, subgroup, sensitivity, and publication bias analyses were performed. A total of 15 studies involving 16,885 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled odds ratio for the highest compared with the lowest dietary fiber intake was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.43-0.64). Stratified analyses for tumor subtype, study design, geographic location, fiber type, publication year, total sample size, and quality score yielded consistent results. Dose-response analysis indicated that a 10-g/d increment in dietary fiber intake was associated with a 31% reduction in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer risk. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies with control for conventional risk factors produced similar results, and omission of any single study had little effect on the overall risk estimate. Our findings indicate that dietary fiber intake is inversely associated with risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. Further large prospective studies are warranted.

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: a population-based prospective study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. Methods A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. Results During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. Conclusions These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method. PMID:24666820

The relationship between health risks and health and productivity costs among employees at Pepsi Bottling Group.

PubMed

Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z

2010-05-01

To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.

Cost analysis of gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponges in preventing sternal wound infection post cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Joshi, V; Vaja, R; Richens, D

2016-01-01

The use of antibiotic-impregnated sponges (Collatamp) during cardiac surgery is controversial. We analysed the cost-effectiveness of its selective use in patients at high-risk of sternal wound infection (SWI). Postoperative costs were analysed in two groups of patients undergoing heart surgery between 2011 and 2013: those with SWI (group 1) and in high-risk patients without SWI (group 2). The potential cost of gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponges (GCS) use in high-risk patients was compared with our current practice. We identified 1,251 patients with at least one recognised risk factor for developing SWI in this period. Of these, 18 developed SWI (incidence 1.4%). The median postoperative cost per patient without SWI was £9,617. The additional cost per patient incurred by SWI was £4,860.75. The annual additional cost for treating patients with SWI was £43,749. With a 50% reduction in SWI, the annual additional cost of treating these patients would be reduced to £21,873. The cost of GCS is £80 per patient. Adding this to £21,873 gives a potential total cost of £71,913 in the treated high-risk cohort. In our practice the annual cost of treating SWI in high-risk patients without use of GCS is lower than the annual cost of using GCS in all high-risk patients (£43,749 versus £71,913) if it produces a 50% reduction in SWI. The reduction in the incidence of SWI poses no economic benefit when the cost of the product is factored in.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost-effective for RRSO at the 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% levels of OC risk, respectively. Premenopausal RRSO appears to be extremely cost-effective at ≥4% lifetime OC risk, with ≥42.7 days gain in life expectancy if compliance with hormone replacement therapy is high. Current guidelines should be re-evaluated to reduce the RRSO OC risk threshold to benefit a number of at-risk women who presently cannot access risk-reducing surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

EPA Science Inventory

The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

Risk-cost-benefit analysis of atrazine in drinking water from agricultural activities and policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfamichael, Aklilu A.; Caplan, Arthur J.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2005-05-01

This study provides an improved methodology for investigating the trade-offs between the health risks and economic benefits of using atrazine in the agricultural sector by incorporating public attitude to pesticide management in the analysis. Regression models are developed to predict finished water atrazine concentration in high-risk community water supplies in the United States. The predicted finished water atrazine concentrations are then used in a health risk assessment. The computed health risks are compared with the total economic surplus in the U.S. corn market for different atrazine application rates using estimated demand and supply functions developed in this work. Analysis of different scenarios with consumer price premiums for chemical-free and reduced-chemical corn indicate that if the society is willing to pay a price premium, risks can be reduced without a large reduction in the total economic surplus and net benefits may be higher. The results also show that this methodology provides an improved scientific framework for future decision making and policy evaluation in pesticide management.

Caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee consumption and melanoma risk: a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Micek, Agnieszka; Godos, Justyna; Lafranconi, Alessandra; Marranzano, Marina; Pajak, Andrzej

2018-06-01

To determine the association between total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee consumption and melanoma risk a dose-response meta-analysis on prospective cohort studies were performed. Eligible studies were identified searching PubMed and EMBASE databases from the earliest available online indexing year to March 2017. The dose-response relationship was assessed by random-effects meta-analysis and the shape of the exposure-outcome curve was modelled linearly and using restricted cubic splines. A total of seven studies eligible for meta-analysis were identified that comprised 1,418,779 participants and 9211 melanoma cases. A linear dose-response meta-analysis showed a significant association between total coffee consumption and melanoma risk. An increase in coffee consumption of one cup per day was associated with a 3% reduction in melanoma risk (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.95-0.99). Our findings suggest that coffee intake may be inversely associated with incidence of melanoma. Nevertheless, further studies exploring also the role of confounding factors are needed to explain the heterogeneity among studies.

Two-stage open reduction and internal fixation versus limited internal fixation combined with external fixation: a meta-analysis of postoperative complications in patients with severe Pilon fractures.

PubMed

Cui, Xueliang; Chen, Hui; Rui, Yunfeng; Niu, Yang; Li, He

2018-01-01

Objectives Two-stage open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) and limited internal fixation combined with external fixation (LIFEF) are two widely used methods to treat Pilon injury. However, which method is superior to the other remains controversial. This meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively compare two-stage ORIF and LIFEF and clarify which method is better with respect to postoperative complications in the treatment of tibial Pilon fractures. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis to quantitatively compare the postoperative complications between two-stage ORIF and LIFEF. Eight studies involving 360 fractures in 359 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Results The two-stage ORIF group had a significantly lower risk of superficial infection, nonunion, and bone healing problems than the LIFEF group. However, no significant differences in deep infection, delayed union, malunion, arthritis symptoms, or chronic osteomyelitis were found between the two groups. Conclusion Two-stage ORIF was associated with a lower risk of postoperative complications with respect to superficial infection, nonunion, and bone healing problems than LIFEF for tibial Pilon fractures. Level of evidence 2.

Developing an Integrated, Brief Biobehavioral HIV Prevention Intervention for High-Risk Drug Users in Treatment: The Process and Outcome of Formative Research

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Roman; Altice, Frederick; Karki, Pramila; Copenhaver, Michael

2017-01-01

To date, HIV prevention efforts have largely relied on singular strategies (e.g., behavioral or biomedical approaches alone) with modest HIV risk-reduction outcomes for people who use drugs (PWUD), many of whom experience a wide range of neurocognitive impairments (NCI). We report on the process and outcome of our formative research aimed at developing an integrated biobehavioral approach that incorporates innovative strategies to address the HIV prevention and cognitive needs of high-risk PWUD in drug treatment. Our formative work involved first adapting an evidence-based behavioral intervention—guided by the Assessment–Decision–Administration–Production–Topical experts–Integration–Training–Testing model—and then combining the behavioral intervention with an evidence-based biomedical intervention for implementation among the target population. This process involved eliciting data through structured focus groups (FGs) with key stakeholders—members of the target population (n = 20) and treatment providers (n = 10). Analysis of FG data followed a thematic analysis approach utilizing several qualitative data analysis techniques, including inductive analysis and cross-case analysis. Based on all information, we integrated the adapted community-friendly health recovery program—a brief evidence-based HIV prevention behavioral intervention—with the evidence-based biomedical component [i.e., preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP)], an approach that incorporates innovative strategies to accommodate individuals with NCI. This combination approach—now called the biobehavioral community-friendly health recovery program—is designed to address HIV-related risk behaviors and PrEP uptake and adherence as experienced by many PWUD in treatment. This study provides a complete example of the process of selecting, adapting, and integrating the evidence-based interventions—taking into account both empirical evidence and input from target population members and target organization stakeholders. The resultant brief evidence-based biobehavioral approach could significantly advance primary prevention science by cost-effectively optimizing PrEP adherence and HIV risk reduction within common drug treatment settings. PMID:28553295

The effect of oat β-glucan on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and apoB for CVD risk reduction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised-controlled trials.

PubMed

Ho, Hoang V T; Sievenpiper, John L; Zurbau, Andreea; Blanco Mejia, Sonia; Jovanovski, Elena; Au-Yeung, Fei; Jenkins, Alexandra L; Vuksan, Vladimir

2016-10-01

Oats are a rich source of β-glucan, a viscous, soluble fibre recognised for its cholesterol-lowering properties, and are associated with reduced risk of CVD. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised-controlled trials (RCT) investigating the cholesterol-lowering potential of oat β-glucan on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and apoB for the risk reduction of CVD. MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched. We included RCT of ≥3 weeks of follow-up, assessing the effect of diets enriched with oat β-glucan compared with controlled diets on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol or apoB. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed study quality and risk of bias. Data were pooled using the generic inverse-variance method with random effects models and expressed as mean differences with 95 % CI. Heterogeneity was assessed by the Cochran's Q statistic and quantified by the I 2-statistic. In total, fifty-eight trials (n 3974) were included. A median dose of 3·5 g/d of oat β-glucan significantly lowered LDL-cholesterol (-0·19; 95 % CI -0·23, -0·14 mmol/l, P<0·00001), non-HDL-cholesterol (-0·20; 95 % CI -0·26, -0·15 mmol/l, P<0·00001) and apoB (-0·03; 95 % CI -0·05, -0·02 g/l, P<0·0001) compared with control interventions. There was evidence for considerable unexplained heterogeneity in the analysis of LDL-cholesterol (I 2=79 %) and non-HDL-cholesterol (I 2=99 %). Pooled analyses showed that oat β-glucan has a lowering effect on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and apoB. Inclusion of oat-containing foods may be a strategy for achieving targets in CVD reduction.

Avoid Age Discrimination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Michael I.

1982-01-01

Steps a school board can take to minimize the risk of age discrimination suits include reviewing all written policies, forms, files, and collective bargaining agreements for age discriminatory items; preparing a detailed statistical analysis of the age of personnel; and reviewing reduction-in-force procedures. (Author/MLF)

Anxiety Disorders are Associated with Reduced Heart Rate Variability: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chalmers, John A; Quintana, Daniel S; Abbott, Maree J-Anne; Kemp, Andrew H

2014-01-01

Anxiety disorders increase risk of future cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, even after controlling for confounds including smoking, lifestyle, and socioeconomic status, and irrespective of a history of medical disorders. While impaired vagal function, indicated by reductions in heart rate variability (HRV), may be one mechanism linking anxiety disorders to CVD, prior studies have reported inconsistent findings highlighting the need for meta-analysis. Studies comparing resting-state HRV recordings in patients with an anxiety disorder as a primary diagnosis and healthy controls were considered for meta-analysis. Meta-analyses were based on 36 articles, including 2086 patients with an anxiety disorder and 2294 controls. Overall, anxiety disorders were characterized by lower HRV [high frequency (HF): Hedges' g = -0.29. 95% CI: -0.41 to -0.17, p < 0.001; time domain: Hedges' g = -0.45, 95% CI: -0.57 to -0.33, p < 0.001] than controls. Panic disorder (n = 447), post-traumatic stress disorder (n = 192), generalized anxiety disorder (n = 68), and social anxiety disorder (n = 90), but not obsessive-compulsive disorder (n = 40), displayed reductions in HF HRV relative to controls (all ps < 0.001). Anxiety disorders are associated with reduced HRV, findings associated with a small-to-moderate effect size. Findings have important implications for future physical health and well-being of patients, highlighting a need for comprehensive cardiovascular risk reduction.

What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2009-07-01

Two commonly recommended principles for allocating risk management resources to remediate uncertain hazards are: (1) select a subset to maximize risk-reduction benefits (e.g., maximize the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility of the selected risk-reducing activities), and (2) assign priorities to risk-reducing opportunities and then select activities from the top of the priority list down until no more can be afforded. When different activities create uncertain but correlated risk reductions, as is often the case in practice, then these principles are inconsistent: priority scoring and ranking fails to maximize risk-reduction benefits. Real-world risk priority scoring systems used in homeland security and terrorism risk assessment, environmental risk management, information system vulnerability rating, business risk matrices, and many other important applications do not exploit correlations among risk-reducing opportunities or optimally diversify risk-reducing investments. As a result, they generally make suboptimal risk management recommendations. Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent.

Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lai, Hung-Yu; Hseu, Zeng-Yei; Chen, Ting-Chien; Chen, Bo-Ching; Guo, Horng-Yuh; Chen, Zueng-Sang

2010-01-01

Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act) uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs) have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1) food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2) a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3) risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4) soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan. PMID:21139851

Further analysis of PREVAIL: enzalutamide use in chemotherapy-naïve men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Aragon-Ching, Jeanny B

2014-01-01

PREVAIL was a phase III multinational, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that enrolled chemotherapy-naïve men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), which showed remarkable improvement in co-primary endpoints with an overall 81% reduction in the risk of radiographic progression, as well as 29% reduction in the risk of death in favor of the enzalutamide arm over placebo. All secondary endpoints including time to subsequent chemotherapy initiation and prostate specific antigen (PSA) progression were in favor of the enzalutamide arm. The results of PREVAIL shows the utility of enzalutamide that would likely soon expand the indication to asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic men with mCRPC not previously treated with chemotherapy. PMID:25080931

Further analysis of PREVAIL: enzalutamide use in chemotherapy-naïve men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

PubMed

Aragon-Ching, Jeanny B

2014-01-01

PREVAIL was a phase III multinational, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that enrolled chemotherapy-naïve men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), which showed remarkable improvement in co-primary endpoints with an overall 81% reduction in the risk of radiographic progression, as well as 29% reduction in the risk of death in favor of the enzalutamide arm over placebo. All secondary endpoints including time to subsequent chemotherapy initiation and prostate specific antigen (PSA) progression were in favor of the enzalutamide arm. The results of PREVAIL shows the utility of enzalutamide that would likely soon expand the indication to asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic men with mCRPC not previously treated with chemotherapy.

The Community-based Participatory Intervention Effect of “HIV-RAAP”

PubMed Central

Yancey, Elleen M.; Mayberry, Robert; Armstrong-Mensah, Elizabeth; Collins, David; Goodin, Lisa; Cureton, Shava; Trammell, Ella H.; Yuan, Keming

2012-01-01

Objectives To design and test HIV-RAAP (HIV/AIDS Risk Reduction Among Heterosexually Active African American Men and Women: A Risk Reduction Prevention Intervention) a coeducational, culture- and gender-sensitive community-based participatory HIV risk reduction intervention. Methods A community-based participatory research process included intervention development and implementation of a 7-session coeducational curriculum conducted over 7 consecutive weeks. Results The results indicated a significant intervention effect on reducing sexual behavior risk (P=0.02), improving HIV risk knowledge (P=0.006), and increasing sexual partner conversations about HIV risk reduction (P= 0.001). Conclusions The HIV-RAAP intervention impacts key domains of heterosexual HIV transmission. PMID:22488405

The community-based participatory intervention effect of "HIV-RAAP".

PubMed

Yancey, Elleen M; Mayberry, Robert; Armstrong-Mensah, Elizabeth; Collins, David; Goodin, Lisa; Cureton, Shava; Trammell, Ella H; Yuan, Keming

2012-07-01

To design and test HIV-RAAP (HIV/AIDS Risk Reduction Among Heterosexually Active African American Men and Women: A Risk Reduction Prevention Intervention) a coeducational, culture- and gender-sensitive community-based participatory HIV risk reduction intervention. A community-based participatory research process included intervention development and implementation of a 7-session coeducational curriculum conducted over 7 consecutive weeks. The results indicated a significant intervention effect on reducing sexual behavior risk (P=0.02), improving HIV risk knowledge (P=0.006), and increasing sexual partner conversations about HIV risk reduction (P= 0.001). The HIV-RAAP intervention impacts key domains of heterosexual HIV transmission.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

The Effects of a Mass Media HIV-Risk Reduction Strategy on HIV-Related Stigma and Knowledge Among African American Adolescents

PubMed Central

Valois, Robert F.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Carey, Michael P.; Stanton, Bonita; Romer, Daniel; Fletcher, Faith; Farber, Naomi; Brown, Larry K.; Vanable, Peter A.; Salazar, Laura F.; Juzang, Ivan; Fortune, Thierry

2015-01-01

Abstract HIV-related stigma undermines HIV prevention, testing, and treatment. Multipronged risk-reduction strategies may reduce stigma among African American adolescents. To test the effectiveness of a risk-reduction strategy in addressing stigma, 1613 African American adolescents from four mid-sized cities participated in a randomized control trial. Participants received a sexual-risk reduction [Focus on Youth (FOY)] or general health curriculum [Promoting Health Among Teens (PHAT)]. Two cities received a culturally-tailored media intervention. Participants completed baseline, 3-, 6-, and 12-month surveys to measure HIV-related stigma and knowledge. Analysis of covariance tested for stigma and knowledge differences by media city status and curriculum/media city status (PHAT media vs. PHAT non-media, FOY media vs. FOY non-media; FOY media vs. PHAT media; FOY non-media vs. PHAT non-media) at each measurement. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) determined stigma and knowledge differences over time. Media participants demonstrated greater HIV-related knowledge (p<0.10) at 6 months and lower stigma at 3 months (p<0.10). FOY media participants had lower 3-month (p<0.05) and 12-month (p<0.10) stigma scores than non-media FOY participants. FOY media and non-media participants had greater knowledge than PHAT for all intervals after baseline. FOY media had lower stigma than PHAT media after baseline for all intervals after baseline. HLM indicated greater knowledge slopes for the media group (p<0.05). FOY media participants had greater knowledge slopes (p<0.05) relative to non-media FOY participants and media PHAT participants (p<0.01). A combination of a HIV risk-reduction curriculum and culturally-tailored media demonstrated some effectiveness in reducing stigma. Future use of media in HIV-prevention should include and evaluate effects on stigma. PMID:25738952

Lung cancer incidence trends in Uruguay 1990-2014: An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Alonso, Rafael; Piñeros, Marion; Laversanne, Mathieu; Musetti, Carina; Garau, Mariela; Barrios, Enrique; Bray, Freddie

2018-05-11

Uruguay, a country with one of the highest lung cancer rates worldwide, initiated a series of comprehensive anti-smoking measures in 2005. We assess the tobacco control policies in the context of cohort-driven lung cancer incidence trends over a 25-year period, providing baseline predictions to 2035. Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Uruguay, an age-period-cohort analysis of trends 1990-2014 was performed. The NORDPRED package was used to predict the annual number of new cases of lung cancer and incidence rates up to 2035. In men, age-standardised (world) rates declined from a peak of 165.6 in 1995 to 103.1 by 2014, translating to a 70% reduction in the risk of lung cancer in men born in 1970 relative to the early-1940s. In females, rates increased steadily from 18.3 in 1991 to 30.0 by 2014, with successive increases in risk among generations of women born 1940-1960. There is however evidence of a decline in observed rates in women born recently. Extrapolations of the trends indicate an 8% reduction in the mean number of new lung cancer cases in men by 2035, but a 69% increase in women. Despite observed and predicted reductions in lung cancer incidence in Uruguayan men, rates among women are set to continue to increase, with a large rise in the annual number of female lung cancer diagnoses expected before 2035. There are signals of a diminishing risk among recent generations of women born after 1960. The current analysis provides important baseline information in assessing the future impact of the recent tobacco control initiatives in Uruguay. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Valuing Reductions in Fatal Illness Risks: Implications of Recent Research.

PubMed

Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

2016-08-01

The value of mortality risk reductions, conventionally expressed as the value per statistical life, is an important determinant of the net benefits of many government policies. US regulators currently rely primarily on studies of fatal injuries, raising questions about whether different values might be appropriate for risks associated with fatal illnesses. Our review suggests that, despite the substantial expansion of the research base in recent years, few US studies of illness-related risks meet criteria for quality, and those that do yield similar values to studies of injury-related risks. Given this result, combining the findings of these few studies with the findings of the more robust literature on injury-related risks appears to provide a reasonable range of estimates for application in regulatory analysis. Our review yields estimates ranging from about $4.2 million to $13.7 million with a mid-point of $9.0 million (2013 dollars). Although the studies we identify differ from those that underlie the values currently used by Federal agencies, the resulting estimates are remarkably similar, suggesting that there is substantial consensus emerging on the values applicable to the general US population. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An ecological momentary intervention for smoking cessation: The associations of just-in-time, tailored messages with lapse risk factors.

PubMed

Hébert, Emily T; Stevens, Elise M; Frank, Summer G; Kendzor, Darla E; Wetter, David W; Zvolensky, Michael J; Buckner, Julia D; Businelle, Michael S

2018-03-01

Smartphone apps can provide real-time, tailored interventions for smoking cessation. The current study examines the effectiveness of a smartphone-based smoking cessation application that assessed risk for imminent smoking lapse multiple times per day and provided messages tailored to current smoking lapse risk and specific lapse triggers. Participants (N=59) recruited from a safety-net hospital smoking cessation clinic completed phone-based ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) 5 times/day for 3 consecutive weeks (1week pre-quit, 2weeks post-quit). Risk for smoking lapse was estimated in real-time using a novel weighted lapse risk estimator. With each EMA, participants received messages tailored to current level of risk for imminent smoking lapse and self-reported presence of smoking urge, stress, cigarette availability, and motivation to quit. Generalized linear mixed model analyses determined whether messages tailored to specific lapse risk factors were associated with greater reductions in these triggers than messages not tailored to specific triggers. Overall, messages tailored to smoking urge, cigarette availability, or stress corresponded with greater reductions in those triggers than messages that were not tailored to specific triggers (p's=0.02 to <0.001). Although messages tailored to stress were associated with greater reductions in stress than messages not tailored to stress, the association was non-significant (p=0.892) when only moments of high stress were included in the analysis. Mobile technology can be used to conduct real-time smoking lapse risk assessment and provide tailored treatment content. Findings provide initial evidence that tailored content may impact users' urge to smoke, stress, and cigarette availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

PubMed

Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2017-05-23

Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Assessing the Public Health Impact and Effectiveness of Interventions To Prevent Salmonella Contamination of Sprouts.

PubMed

Ding, Hongliu; Fu, Tong-Jen

2016-01-01

Sprouts have been a recurring public health challenge due to microbiological contamination, and Salmonella has been the major cause of sprout-associated outbreaks. Although seed treatment and microbiological testing have been applied as risk reduction measures during sprout production, the extent to which their effectiveness in reducing the public health risks associated with sprouts has not been well investigated. We conducted a quantitative risk assessment to measure the risk posed by Salmonella contamination in sprouts and to determine whether and how mitigation strategies can achieve a satisfactory risk reduction based on the assumption that the risk reduction achieved by a microbiological sampling and testing program at a given sensitivity is equivalent to that achieved by direct inactivation of pathogens. Our results indicated that if the sprouts were produced without any risk interventions, the health impact caused by sprouts contaminated with Salmonella would be very high, with a median annual estimated loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 691,412. Seed treatment (with 20,000 ppm of calcium hypochlorite) or microbiological sampling and testing of spent irrigation water (SIW) alone could reduce the median annual impact to 734 or 4,856 DALYs, respectively. Combining seed treatment with testing of the SIW would further decrease the risk to 58 DALYs. This number could be dramatically lowered to 3.99 DALYs if sprouts were produced under conditions that included treating seeds with 20,000 ppm of calcium hypochlorite plus microbiological testing of seeds, SIW, and finished products. Our analysis shows that the public health impact due to Salmonella contamination in sprouts could be controlled if seeds are treated to reduce pathogens and microbiological sampling and testing is implemented. Future advances in intervention strategies would be important to improve sprout safety further.

Impact of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients: A comparative interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Murimi, Irene; Faul, Mark; Rutkow, Lainie; Alexander, G Caleb

2018-04-01

We quantified the effects of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients. We used QuintilesIMS LRx Lifelink data to identify patients receiving prescription opioids in Florida (intervention state, N: 1.13 million) and Georgia (control state, N: 0.54 million). The preintervention, intervention, and postintervention periods were July 2010 to June 2011, July 2011 to September 2011, and October 2011 to September 2012. We identified 3 types of high-risk patients: (1) concomitant users: patients with concomitant use of benzodiazepines and opioids; (2) chronic users: long-term, high-dose, opioid users; and (3) opioid shoppers: patients receiving opioids from multiple sources. We compared changes in opioid prescriptions between Florida and Georgia before and after policy implementation among high-risk/low-risk patients. Our monthly measures included (1) average morphine milligram equivalent per transaction, (2) total opioid volume across all prescriptions, (3) average days supplied per transaction, and (4) total number of opioid prescriptions dispensed. Among opioid-receiving individuals in Florida, 6.62% were concomitant users, 1.96% were chronic users, and 0.46% were opioid shoppers. Following policy implementation, Florida's high-risk patients experienced relative reductions in morphine milligram equivalent (opioid shoppers: -1.08 mg/month, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.62 to -0.54), total opioid volume (chronic users: -4.58 kg/month, CI -5.41 to -3.76), and number of dispensed opioid prescriptions (concomitant users: -640 prescriptions/month, CI -950 to -340). Low-risk patients generally did not experience statistically significantly relative reductions. Compared with Georgia, Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law were associated with large relative reductions in prescription opioid utilization among high-risk patients. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Acrylamide in coffee: review of progress in analysis, formation and level reduction.

PubMed

Guenther, Helmut; Anklam, Elke; Wenzl, Thomas; Stadler, Richard H

2007-01-01

This paper summarizes the progress made in understanding the formation of acrylamide in coffee, as well as potential reduction strategies, as presented during the joint CIAA/EC workshop on acrylamide, held in Brussels in March 2006. Currently, there are no concrete measures to reduce acrylamide concentrations in roast and ground coffee without appreciably changing the organoleptic properties of the product. Certain approaches, such as steam roasting, have been tried on a laboratory scale, albeit without affording a significant reduction. More work on the mechanisms governing the "loss" of acrylamide during storage of roast and ground coffee is warranted, and studies in this direction have been initiated. Finally, risk/benefit analysis must be addressed in a complex food such as coffee, known to harbour numerous health beneficial/chemoprotective compounds with antioxidant and antimutagenic properties.

Aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality events in diabetes: updated meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Kunutsor, S K; Seidu, S; Khunti, K

2017-03-01

To evaluate the benefits and harms of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality events in people with diabetes by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Randomized controlled trials of aspirin compared with placebo (or no treatment) in people with diabetes with no history of cardiovascular disease were identified from MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and a manual search of bibliographies to November 2015. Study-specific relative risks with 95% CIs were aggregated using random effects models. A total of 10 randomized trials were included in the review. There was a significant reduction in risk of major adverse cardiovascular events: relative risk of 0.90 (95% CI 0.81-0.99) in groups taking aspirin compared with placebo or no treatment. Limited subgroup analyses suggested that the effect of aspirin on major adverse cardiovascular events differed by baseline cardiovascular disease risk, medication compliance and sex (P for interaction for all > 0.05).There was no significant reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular mortality or all-cause mortality. Aspirin significantly reduced the risk of myocardial infarction for a treatment duration of ≤ 5 years. There were differences in the effect of aspirin by dosage and treatment duration on overall stroke outcomes (P for interaction for all < 0.05). There was an increase in risk of major or gastrointestinal bleeding events, but estimates were imprecise and not significant. The emerging data do not clearly support guidelines that encourage the use of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in adults with diabetes who are at increased cardiovascular disease risk. © 2016 Diabetes UK.

Aerobic exercise interventions reduce blood pressure in patients after stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Cheng; Redgrave, Jessica; Shafizadeh, Mohsen; Majid, Arshad; Kilner, Karen; Ali, Ali N

2018-05-09

Secondary vascular risk reduction is critical to preventing recurrent stroke. We aimed to evaluate the effect of exercise interventions on vascular risk factors and recurrent ischaemic events after stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Intervention systematic review and meta-analysis. OVID MEDLINE, PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, TRIP Database, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SCOPUS, UK Clinical Trials Gateway and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure were searched from 1966 to October 2017. Randomised controlled trials evaluating aerobic or resistance exercise interventions on vascular risk factors and recurrent ischaemic events among patients with stroke or TIA, compared with control. Twenty studies (n=1031) were included. Exercise interventions resulted in significant reductions in systolic blood pressure (SBP) -4.30 mm Hg (95% CI -6.77 to -1.83) and diastolic blood pressure -2.58 mm Hg (95% CI -4.7 to -0.46) compared with control. Reduction in SBP was most pronounced among studies initiating exercise within 6 months of stroke or TIA (-8.46 mm Hg, 95% CI -12.18 to -4.75 vs -2.33 mm Hg, 95% CI -3.94 to -0.72), and in those incorporating an educational component (-7.81 mm Hg, 95% CI -14.34 to -1.28 vs -2.78 mm Hg, 95% CI -4.33 to -1.23). Exercise was also associated with reductions in total cholesterol (-0.27 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.54 to 0.00), but not fasting glucose or body mass index. One trial reported reductions in secondary vascular events with exercise, but was insufficiently powered. Exercise interventions can result in clinically meaningful blood pressure reductions, particularly if initiated early and alongside education. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Evaluation of the HbA1c Reduction Cut Point for a Nonglycemic Effect on Cardiovascular Benefit of Hypoglycemic Agents in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Based on Endpoint Events.

PubMed

Wu, Yuchao; Tang, Lizhi; Zhang, Fang; Yan, Zhe; Li, Jing; Tong, Nanwei

2018-01-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a major cause of death among patients with diabetes but can be improved by certain hypoglycemic agents. However, adjudicating criteria on whether improvements are a glycemic or nonglycemic effect of these agents remain unclear. Hypoglycemic agents that produce a cardiovascular benefit in nondiabetic patients are considered to do so via a nonglycemic effect. We performed a subgroup analysis for primary and secondary prevention or very high risk of ASCVD in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Where glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) was reduced to the same extent in a head-to-head comparison, cardiovascular benefits were judged as a nonglycemic effect. Furthermore, by analyzing the endpoints of four important randomized controlled intensive glucose control studies, UKPDS33, ADVANCE, ACCORD, and VADT, we calculated the cut point of HbA1c reduction for a nonglycemic effect on cardiovascular benefit by hypoglycemic agents in ASCVD groups of different severities. For the ASCVD primary prevention group of T2DM, UKPDS33 indicated a reduction in HbA1c < 0.9%, and a cardiovascular benefit within 10 years was considered a nonglycemic effect. For ASCVD secondary prevention or in the very high-risk group, pioglitazone exerted a nonglycemic effect on cardiovascular benefit in nondiabetic patients with insulin resistance; metformin may exert a similar effect in T2DM patients in a head-to-head study. Analysis of T2DM intensive glucose control studies showed a reduction in HbA1c of <1.0%, and a cardiovascular benefit after approximately 5 years was deemed a nonglycemic effect. For ASCVD primary prevention in T2DM, a reduction in HbA1c < 0.9% and a cardiovascular benefit within 10 years were considered a nonglycemic effect. For ASCVD secondary prevention or in a very high-risk population, a reduction in HbA1c < 1.0% and a cardiovascular benefit within about 5 years were also considered a nonglycemic effect.

Stress reduction programs in patients with elevated blood pressure: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rainforth, Maxwell V; Schneider, Robert H; Nidich, Sanford I; Gaylord-King, Carolyn; Salerno, John W; Anderson, James W

2007-12-01

Substantial evidence indicates that psychosocial stress contributes to hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous meta-analyses of stress reduction and high blood pressure (BP) were outdated and/or methodologically limited. Therefore, we conducted an updated systematic review of the published literature and identified 107 studies on stress reduction and BP. Seventeen trials with 23 treatment comparisons and 960 participants with elevated BP met criteria for well-designed randomized controlled trials and were replicated within intervention categories. Meta-analysis was used to calculate BP changes for biofeedback, -0.8/-2.0 mm Hg (P = NS); relaxation-assisted biofeedback, +4.3/+2.4 mm Hg (P = NS); progressive muscle relaxation, -1.9/-1.4 mm Hg (P = NS); stress management training, -2.3/-1.3 mm (P = NS); and the Transcendental Meditation program, -5.0/-2.8 mm Hg (P = 0.002/0.02). Available evidence indicates that among stress reduction approaches, the Transcendental Meditation program is associated with significant reductions in BP. Related data suggest improvements in other CVD risk factors and clinical outcomes.

Stress Reduction Programs in Patients with Elevated Blood Pressure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Rainforth, Maxwell V.; Schneider, Robert H.; Nidich, Sanford I.; Gaylord-King, Carolyn; Salerno, John W.; Anderson, James W.

2007-01-01

Substantial evidence indicates that psychosocial stress contributes to hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous meta-analyses of stress reduction and high blood pressure (BP) were outdated and/or methodologically limited. Therefore, we conducted an updated systematic review of the published literature and identified 107 studies on stress reduction and BP. Seventeen trials with 23 treatment comparisons and 960 participants with elevated BP met criteria for well-designed randomized controlled trials and were replicated within intervention categories. Meta-analysis was used to calculate BP changes for biofeedback, −0.8/−2.0 mm Hg (P = NS); relaxation-assisted biofeedback, +4.3/+2.4 mm Hg (P = NS); progressive muscle relaxation, −1.9/−1.4 mm Hg (P = NS); stress management training, −2.3/−1.3 mm (P = NS); and the Transcendental Meditation program, −5.0/−2.8 mm Hg (P = 0.002/0.02). Available evidence indicates that among stress reduction approaches, the Transcendental Meditation program is associated with significant reductions in BP. Related data suggest improvements in other CVD risk factors and clinical outcomes. PMID:18350109

Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.

PubMed

Noland, R B

1995-08-01

A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).

Physical activity, hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk: A meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Pizot, Cécile; Boniol, Mathieu; Mullie, Patrick; Koechlin, Alice; Boniol, Magali; Boyle, Peter; Autier, Philippe

2016-01-01

Lower risk of breast cancer has been reported among physically active women, but the risk in women using hormone replacement therapy (HRT) appears to be higher. We quantified the association between physical activity and breast cancer, and we examined the influence that HRT use and other risk factors had on this association. After a systematic literature search, prospective studies were meta-analysed using random-effect models applied on highest versus lowest level of physical activity. Dose-response analyses were conducted with studies reporting physical activity either in hours per week or in hours of metabolic equivalent per week (MET-h/week). The literature search identified 38 independent prospective studies published between 1987 and 2014 that included 116,304 breast cancer cases. Compared to the lowest level of physical activity, the highest level was associated with a summary relative risk (SRR) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85, 0.90) for all breast cancer, 0.89 (95% CI 0.83, 0.95) for ER+/PR+ breast cancer and 0.80 (95% CI 0.69, 0.92) for ER-/PR- breast cancer. Risk reductions were not influenced by the type of physical activity (occupational or non-occupational), adiposity, and menopausal status. Risk reductions increased with increasing amounts of physical activity without threshold effect. In six studies, the SRR was 0.78 (95% CI 0.70, 0.87) in women who never used HRT and 0.97 (95% CI 0.88, 1.07) in women who ever used HRT, without heterogeneity in results. Findings indicate that a physically inactive women engaging in at least 150 min per week of vigorous physical activity would reduce their lifetime risk of breast cancer by 9%, a reduction that might be two times greater in women who never used HRT. Increasing physical activity is associated with meaningful reductions in the risk of breast cancer, but in women who ever used HRT, the preventative effect of physical activity seems to be cancelled out. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevention of Chronic Kidney Disease and Subsequent Effect on Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Khan, Usman A.; Garg, Amit X.; Parikh, Chirag R.; Coca, Steven G.

2013-01-01

Objectives To perform a systematic review of randomized controlled trials to determine whether prevention or slowing of progression of chronic kidney disease would translate into improved mortality, and if so, the attributable risk due to CKD itself on mortality. Background CKD is associated with increased mortality. This association is largely based on evidence from the observational studies and evidence from randomized controlled trials is lacking. Methods We searched Ovid, Medline and Embase for RCTs in which an intervention was given to prevent or slow the progression of CKD and mortality was reported as primary, secondary or adverse outcomes were eligible and selected. For the first phase, pooled relative risks for renal endpoints were assessed. For the second phase, we assessed the effect on mortality in trials of interventions that definitively reduced CKD endpoints. Results Among 52 studies selected in first phase, only renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system blockade vs. placebo (n = 18 trials, 32,557 participants) met the efficacy criteria for further analysis in the second phase by reducing renal endpoints 15 to 27% compared to placebo. There was no difference in all-cause mortality (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.08) or CV death (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.21) between the treatment and control groups in these trials. There was sufficient statistical power to detect a 9% relative risk reduction in all-cause mortality and a 14% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Firm evidence is lacking that prevention of CKD translates into reductions in mortality. Larger trials with longer follow-up time are needed to determine the benefit of CKD prevention on survival. PMID:24009665

Heart rate at baseline influences the effect of ivabradine on cardiovascular outcomes in chronic heart failure: analysis from the SHIFT study.

PubMed

Böhm, Michael; Borer, Jeffrey; Ford, Ian; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Komajda, Michel; Lopez-Sendon, Jose; Reil, Jan-Christian; Swedberg, Karl; Tavazzi, Luigi

2013-01-01

We analysed the effect of ivabradine on outcomes in heart failure (HF) patients on recommended background therapies with heart rates ≥75 bpm and <75 bpm in the SHIFT trial. A cut-off value of ≥75 bpm was chosen by the EMEA for approval for the use of ivabradine in chronic heart failure. The SHIFT population was divided by baseline heart rate ≥75 or <75 bpm. The effect of ivabradine was analysed for primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization) and other endpoints. In the ≥75 bpm group, ivabradine reduced primary endpoint (HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.68-0.85, P < 0.0001), all-cause mortality (HR 0.83, 95 % CI, 0.72-0.96, P = 0.0109), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.83, 95 % CI, (0.71-0.97, P = 0.0166), HF death (HR 0.61, 95 % CI, 0.46-0.81, P < 0.0006), and HF hospitalization (HR 0.70, 95 % CI, 0.61-0.80, P < 0.0001). Risk reduction depended on heart rate after 28 days, with the best protection for heart rates <60 bpm or reductions >10 bpm. None of the endpoints was significantly reduced in the <75 bpm group, though there were trends for risk reductions in HF death and hospitalization for heart rate <60 bpm and reductions >10 bpm. Ivabradine was tolerated similarly in both groups. The effect of ivabradine on outcomes is greater in patients with heart rate ≥75 bpm with heart rates achieved <60 bpm or heart rate reductions >10 bpm predicting best risk reduction. Our findings emphasize the importance of identification of high-risk HF patients by high heart rates and their treatment with heart rate-lowering drugs such as ivabradine.

Still "at risk": An examination of how street-involved young people understand, experience, and engage with "harm reduction" in Vancouver's inner city.

PubMed

Bozinoff, Nikki; Small, Will; Long, Cathy; DeBeck, Kora; Fast, Danya

2017-07-01

Vancouver is an international leader in implementing interventions to reduce harms related to drug use. However, street-involved young people who use drugs continue to be vulnerable to overdose death, hepatitis C (HCV) infection, and high rates of syringe sharing. To better understand this in the context of the intensive public health response, we examined how young people, who are involved in the 'street drug scene', understood, experienced and engaged with harm reduction. Twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2013 with 13 young people (ages 17-28) recruited from the At-Risk Youth Study, a prospective cohort of street-involved and drug-using young people. These interviews were embedded within a larger, eight-year program of ethnographic research and explored participants' understandings of harm reduction, their use of specific services, and their ideas about improving their day-to-day lives. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and a thematic analysis was performed. Young peoples' ideas about harm reduction were diverse and expansive. They articulated the limitations of existing programs, indicating that while they are positioned to reduce the risk of HIV and HCV transmission, they offer little meaningful support to improve young peoples' broader life chances. Young people described strategies to mitigate risk and harm in their own lives, including transitioning to drugs deemed less harmful and attempting to gain access to drug treatment. Finally, young people indicated that spatial considerations (e.g., distance from Vancouver's Downtown Eastside) strongly determined access to services. In Vancouver, a large, well established harm reduction infrastructure seeks to reduce HIV and HCV transmission among street-involved young people. However, young peoples' multiple understandings, experiences and engagements with harm reduction in this setting illustrate the limitations of the existing infrastructure in improving their broader life chances. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

PubMed

Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

2014-01-01

The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

Distributional benefit analysis of a national air quality rule.

PubMed

Post, Ellen S; Belova, Anna; Huang, Jin

2011-06-01

Under Executive Order 12898, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must perform environmental justice (EJ) reviews of its rules and regulations. EJ analyses address the hypothesis that environmental disamenities are experienced disproportionately by poor and/or minority subgroups. Such analyses typically use communities as the unit of analysis. While community-based approaches make sense when considering where polluting sources locate, they are less appropriate for national air quality rules affecting many sources and pollutants that can travel thousands of miles. We compare exposures and health risks of EJ-identified individuals rather than communities to analyze EPA's Heavy Duty Diesel (HDD) rule as an example national air quality rule. Air pollutant exposures are estimated within grid cells by air quality models; all individuals in the same grid cell are assigned the same exposure. Using an inequality index, we find that inequality within racial/ethnic subgroups far outweighs inequality between them. We find, moreover, that the HDD rule leaves between-subgroup inequality essentially unchanged. Changes in health risks depend also on subgroups' baseline incidence rates, which differ across subgroups. Thus, health risk reductions may not follow the same pattern as reductions in exposure. These results are likely representative of other national air quality rules as well.

Development of risk reduction behavioral counseling for Ebola virus disease survivors enrolled in the Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study, 2015-2016.

PubMed

Abad, Neetu; Malik, Tasneem; Ariyarajah, Archchun; Ongpin, Patricia; Hogben, Matthew; McDonald, Suzanna L R; Marrinan, Jaclyn; Massaquoi, Thomas; Thorson, Anna; Ervin, Elizabeth; Bernstein, Kyle; Ross, Christine; Liu, William J; Kroeger, Karen; Durski, Kara N; Broutet, Nathalie; Knust, Barbara; Deen, Gibrilla F

2017-09-01

During the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study was initiated to investigate this risk by assessing EBOV persistence in numerous body fluids of EVD survivors and providing risk reduction counseling based on test results for semen, vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, urine, rectal fluid, sweat, tears, saliva, and breast milk. This publication describes implementation of the counseling protocol and the key lessons learned. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol was developed from a framework used to prevent transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The framework helped to identify barriers to risk reduction and facilitated the development of a personalized risk-reduction plan, particularly around condom use and abstinence. Pre-test and post-test counseling sessions included risk reduction guidance, and post-test counseling was based on the participants' individual test results. The behavioral counseling protocol enabled study staff to translate the study's body fluid test results into individualized information for study participants. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol provided guidance to mitigate the risk of EBOV transmission from EVD survivors. It has since been shared with and adapted by other EVD survivor body fluid testing programs and studies in Ebola-affected countries.

Inhaled antibiotics in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Li; Zhang, Fei; Du, Shuai; Yu, Qi; Chen, Lin; Long, Li-Hui; Li, Ya-Ming; Jia, Ai-Hua

2016-09-01

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of inhaled antibiotics for the treatment of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCFB). Pubmed, Cochrane library, Embase, Elsevier, OVID, Springerlink, Web of knowledge and NEJM were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on inhaled antibiotics in treatment of NCFB from inception until April 2015. Meta-analysis was conducted to assess the efficacy and safety of inhaled antibiotics in the treatment of NCFB. Twelve RCTs involving 1154 participants were included. They showed that inhaled antibiotics were more effective in reduction of sputum bacterial density, eradication of P. aeruginosa, prolonged time to exacerbation and reduction of new pathogens emergence with no significant difference in adverse events compared with control groups. However, we did not find significant benefits of inhaled antibiotics in reducing the risk of acute exacerbation, improving health-related quality of life and reduction of P. aeruginosa resistance. Moreover, inhaled antibiotics exerted a statistically significant reduction in FEV1%. Inhaled antibiotics may be an alternative pathway to inhibit airway inflammation with no more adverse events in patients with NCFB.

AUTOMOUSE: AN IMPROVEMENT TO THE MOUSE COMPUTERIZED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS SYSTEM OPERATIONAL MANUAL.

EPA Science Inventory

Under a mandate of national environmental laws, the agency strives to formulate and implement actions leading to a compatible balance between human activities and the ability of natural systems to support and nurture life. The Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is responsible ...

Sensitivity Analysis of Digital I&C Modules in Protection and Safety Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil Ur, Rahman; Zubair, M.; Heo, G.

2013-12-01

This research is performed to examine the sensitivity of digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) components and modules used in regulating and protection systems architectures of nuclear industry. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was performed for four configurations of RPS channel architecture. The channel unavailability has been calculated by using AIMS-PSA, which comes out 4.517E-03, 2.551E-03, 2.246E-03 and 2.7613-04 for architecture configuration I, II, III and IV respectively. It is observed that unavailability decreases by 43.5 % & 50.4% by inserting partial redundancy whereas maximum reduction of 93.9 % in unavailability happens when double redundancy is inserted in architecture. Coincidence module output failure and bi-stable output failures are identified as sensitive failures by Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) and Fussell-Vesely (FV) importance. RRW highlights that risk from coincidence processor output failure can reduced by 48.83 folds and FV indicates that BP output is sensitive by 0.9796 (on a scale of 1).

Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, Margaret

2008-01-01

A CSEA is similar to a Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA). A CSEA tracks risk, deterrence, and occurrence of sources of contamination and their mitigation plans. Documentation is provided spanning mechanical and electrical assembly, precision cleaning, thermal vacuum bake-out, and thermal vacuum testing. These facilities all may play a role in contamination budgeting and reduction ultimately affecting test and flight. With a CSEA, visibility can be given to availability of these facilities, test sequencing and trade-offs. A cross-functional team including specialty engineering, contamination control, electrostatic dissipation, manufacturing, testing, and material engineering participate in an exercise that identifies contaminants and minimizes the complexity of scheduling these facilities considering their volatile schedules. Care can be taken in an efficient manner to insure correct cleaning processes are employed. The result is reduction in cycle time ("schedule hits"), reduced cost due to rework, reduced risk and improved communication and quality while achieving adherence to the Contamination Control Plan.

Evaluation of minimum coverage size and orbital accuracy at different orbital regimes for one order of magnitude reduction of the catastrophic collision risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Ortiz, Noelia; Domínguez-González, Raúl; Krag, Holger

2015-03-01

One of the main objectives of Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) systems is to support space collision avoidance activities. This collision avoidance capability aims to significantly reduce the catastrophic collision risk of space objects. In particular, for the case of the future European SST, the objective is translated into a risk reduction of one order of magnitude whilst keeping a low number of false alarm events. In order to translate this aim into system requirements, an evaluation of the current catastrophic collision risk for different orbital regimes is addressed. The reduction of such risk depends on the amount of catalogued objects (coverage) and the knowledge of the associated orbits in the catalogue (accuracy). This paper presents an analysis of the impact of those two aspects in the capability to reduce the catastrophic collision risk at some orbital regimes. A reliable collision avoidance support depends on the accuracy of the predicted miss-events. The assessment of possible conjunctions is normally done by computing the estimated miss-distances between objects (which is compared with a defined distance threshold) or by computing the associated collision risk (which is compared with the corresponding accepted collision probability level). This second method is normally recommended because it takes into account the reliability of the orbits and allows reducing false alarm events. The collision risk depends on the estimated miss-distance, the object sizes and the accuracy of the two orbits at the time of event. This accuracy depends on the error of the orbits at the orbit determination epoch and the error derived from the propagation from that epoch up to the time of event. The modified DRAMA ARES (Domínguez-González et al., 2012, 2013a,b; Gelhaus et al., 2014) provides information on the expected number of encounters for a given mission and year. It also provides information on the capacity to reduce the risk of collision by means of avoidance manoeuvres as a function of the accepted collision probability level and the cataloguing performance of the surveillance system (determined by the limiting coverage size-altitude function and the orbital data accuracy). The assessment of avoidance strategies takes into account statistical models of the space object environment, as provided by ESA's MASTER-2009 model, and a mathematical framework for the collision risk estimation as used in satellite operations. In this papers, results are provided for some orbit types, covering different orbital regimes. The analysis is done for different cataloguing capacity levels (accuracy and coverage), concluding that 5 cm are to be covered at LEO for diminishing the catastrophic collision risk by one order of magnitude. For MEO and GEO regime, coverage down to 40 and 100 cm respectively allow similar reduction of risk.

41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

Reductions in Transmission Risk Behaviors in HIV-Positive Clients Receiving Prevention Case Management Services: Findings from a Community Demonstration Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gasiorowicz, Mari; Llanas, Michelle R.; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Benotsch, Eric G.; Brondino, Michael J.; Catz, Sheryl L.; Hoxie, Neil J.; Reiser, William J.; Vergeront, James M.

2005-01-01

Prevention case management (PCM) for HIV-infected persons is an HIV risk reduction intervention designed to assist clients who are aware of their HIV infection and who continue to engage in risk transmission behaviors. PCM combines individual risk reduction counseling with case management to address the psychosocial factors affecting HIV…

Effects of statins on stroke prevention in patients with and without coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Briel, Matthias; Studer, Marco; Glass, Tracy R; Bucher, Heiner C

2004-10-15

To assess if lipid-lowering interventions (statins, fibrates, resins, n-3 fatty acids, diet) prevent nonfatal and fatal strokes in patients with and without coronary heart disease. We systematically searched the literature up to August 2002 to retrieve all randomized controlled trials of lipid-lowering interventions that reported nonfatal and fatal stroke and mortality data. The search yielded 65 trials with 200,607 patients for a meta-analysis to determine whether treatment effects differed between types of lipid-lowering interventions and between patient samples with and without coronary heart disease. The risk ratio for nonfatal and fatal stroke for statins as compared with control interventions was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76 to 0.90). The corresponding risk ratios for statins as compared with control were 0.75 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.87) for patients with coronary heart disease and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.62 to 0.95) for those without coronary heart disease. The confidence intervals of risk ratios for nonfatal and fatal stroke associated with fibrates, resins, n-3 fatty acids, and diet all included 1, as did the confidence intervals for these interventions in patients with and without coronary heart disease. Weighted meta-regression analysis suggested a stronger association of stroke reduction with statin treatment than with the extent of cholesterol reduction. This meta-analysis suggests that statins reduce the incidence of stroke in patients with and without coronary heart disease.

A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

PubMed

Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

2013-06-01

Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

Dyadic Qualitative Analysis of Condom Use Scripts Among Emerging Adult Gay Male Couples.

PubMed

Starks, Tyrel J; Pawson, Mark; Stephenson, Rob; Sullivan, Patrick; Parsons, Jeffrey T

2018-04-03

Sexual risk reduction among gay male couples has received increasing attention in light of evidence that primary partners account for many-and possibly most-new HIV infections. This study examined the content of condom use scripts in interviews conducted with both members of 17 HIV-negative gay male couples. In each couple, at least one partner was an emerging adult (aged 18 to 29). Three scripts were identified: romantic love, unanticipated condomless anal intercourse (CAI), and negotiated safety. Scripts varied in their emphasis on emotional factors versus HIV risk reduction, the salience of sexual agreements, and the presence of an explicit communication goal. Results indicated that condom use may vary for couples as a result of script content and from the fluid adoption of scripts across contexts. Results highlighted potential tensions between emotional closeness and HIV prevention. Condom use cessation and sexual agreements-a potential mechanism for HIV risk reduction-may also serve as expressions of intimacy. This implies interventions that facilitate direct communication about sexual and relational goals-as well as those that expand couples' repertoires for expressing emotional closeness-may enhance sexual health for gay couples, particularly during the period of emerging adulthood.

Little cigars, big cigars: omissions and commissions of harm and harm reduction information on the Internet.

PubMed

Dollar, Katherine M; Mix, Jacqueline M; Kozlowski, Lynn T

2008-05-01

We conducted a comparative analysis of "harm," "harm reduction," and "little cigar" information about cigars on 10 major English-language health Web sites. The sites were from governmental and nongovernmental organizations based in seven different countries and included "harm" and "harm reduction" information, discussions of little cigars, quantitative estimates of health risks, and qualifying behavioral characteristics (inhalation, number per day). Of the 10 Web sites, 7 offered statements explicitly indicating that cigars may be safer than cigarettes. None of the Web sites reviewed described that little cigars are likely as dangerous as cigarettes. Some Web sites provided quantitative estimates of health risks and extensive discussions of qualifying factors. Reading grade levels were higher than desirable. Extensive and complex information on the reduced risks of cigars compared with cigarettes is available on Web sites affiliated with prominent health organizations. Yet these sites fail to warn consumers that popular cigarette-like little cigars and cigarillos are likely to be just as dangerous as cigarettes, even for those who have never smoked cigarettes. Improvement of these Web sites is urgently needed to provide the public with high-quality health information.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masure, P.

2003-04-01

The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this, GEMITIS is based on a systemic approach of the city and on value analysis of exposed elements. It facilitates a collective expertise for the definition of a preventive action plan based on the participation of the main urban actors (crisis preparedness, construction, land-use, etc.).

Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would).

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V

2015-05-21

It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of "gateway effects", in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco) cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives) or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product). Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships.

Determinants of neonatal mortality in rural and urban Nigeria: Evidence from a population-based national survey.

PubMed

Adewuyi, Emmanuel O; Zhao, Yun

2017-02-01

Significant reduction in the global burden of neonatal mortality was achieved through the millennium development goals. In Nigeria, however, only a marginal reduction was realized. This study assesses the rural-urban differences in neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and the associated risk factors in Nigeria. The dataset from the 2013 Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS), disaggregated by rural-urban residence (n = 20 449 and 9935, respectively), was explored using univariate, bivariate, and multivariable analysis. Complex samples analysis was applied to adjust for the unequal selection probabilities due to the multi-stage cluster sampling method used in the 2013 NDHS. The adjusted relationship between the outcome and predictor variables was assessed on multi-level logistic regression analysis. NMR for rural and urban populations was 36 and 28 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Risk factors in urban residence were lack of electricity access (adjusted OR [AOR], 1.555; 95%CI: 1.089-2.220), small birth size (as a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 3.048; 95%CI: 2.047-4.537), and male gender (AOR, 1.666; 95%CI: 1.215-2.284). Risk factors in rural residence were small birth size (a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 2.118; 95%CI: 1.600-2.804), and birth interval <2 years (AOR, 2.149; 95%CI: 1.760-2.624). Cesarean delivery was a risk factor both in rural (AOR, 5.038; 95%CI: 2.617-9.700) and urban Nigeria (AOR, 2.632; 95%CI: 1.543-4.489). Determinants of neonatal mortality were different in rural and urban Nigeria, and rural neonates had greater risk of mortality than their urban counterparts. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Gateway Effects: Why the Cited Evidence Does Not Support Their Existence for Low-Risk Tobacco Products (and What Evidence Would)

PubMed Central

Phillips, Carl V.

2015-01-01

It is often claimed that low-risk drugs still create harm because of “gateway effects”, in which they cause the use of a high-risk alternative. Such claims are popular among opponents of tobacco harm reduction, claiming that low-risk tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco) cause people to start smoking, sometimes backed by empirical studies that ostensibly support the claim. However, these studies consistently ignore the obvious alternative causal pathways, particularly that observed associations might represent causation in the opposite direction (smoking causes people to seek low-risk alternatives) or confounding (the same individual characteristics increase the chance of using any tobacco product). Due to these complications, any useful analysis must deal with simultaneity and confounding by common cause. In practice, existing analyses seem almost as if they were designed to provide teaching examples about drawing simplistic and unsupported causal conclusions from observed associations. The present analysis examines what evidence and research strategies would be needed to empirically detect such a gateway effect, if there were one, explaining key methodological concepts including causation and confounding, examining the logic of the claim, identifying potentially useful data, and debunking common fallacies on both sides of the argument, as well as presenting an extended example of proper empirical testing. The analysis demonstrates that none of the empirical studies to date that are purported to show a gateway effect from tobacco harm reduction products actually does so. The observations and approaches can be generalized to other cases where observed association of individual characteristics in cross-sectional data could result from any of several causal relationships. PMID:26006122

A Comparison of Willingness to Pay to Prevent Child Maltreatment Deaths in Ecuador and the United States

PubMed Central

Corso, Phaedra S.; Ingels, Justin B.; Roldos, M. Isabel

2013-01-01

Estimating the benefits of preventing child maltreatment (CM) is essential for policy makers to determine whether there are significant returns on investment from interventions to prevent CM. The aim of this study was to estimate the benefits of preventing CM deaths in an Ecuadorian population, and to compare the results to a similar study in a US population. The study used the contingent valuation method to elicit respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a 1 in 100,000 reduction in the risk of CM mortality. After adjusting for differences in purchasing power, the WTP to prevent the CM mortality risk reduction in the Ecuador population was $237 and the WTP for the same risk reduction in the US population was $175. In the pooled analysis, WTP for a reduction in CM mortality was significantly impacted by country (p = 0.03), history of CM (p = 0.007), payment mechanism (p < 0.001), confidence in response (p = 0.014), and appropriateness of the payment mechanism (p < 0.001). These findings suggest that estimating benefits from one culture may not be transferable to another, and that low- and middle-income countries, such as Ecuador, may be better served by developing their own benefits estimates for use in future benefit-cost analyses of interventions designed to prevent CM. PMID:23538730

How do women at increased breast cancer risk perceive and decide between risks of cancer and risk-reducing treatments? A synthesis of qualitative research.

PubMed

Fielden, Hannah G; Brown, Stephen L; Saini, Pooja; Beesley, Helen; Salmon, Peter

2017-09-01

Risk-reducing procedures can be offered to people at increased cancer risk, but many procedures can have iatrogenic effects. People therefore need to weigh risks associated with both cancer and the risk-reduction procedure in their decisions. By reviewing relevant literature on breast cancer (BC) risk reduction, we aimed to understand how women at relatively high risk of BC perceive their risk and how their risk perceptions influence their decisions about risk reduction. Synthesis of 15 qualitative studies obtained from systematic searches of SCOPUS, Web of Knowledge, PsychINFO, and Medline electronic databases (inception-June 2015). Women did not think about risk probabilistically. Instead, they allocated themselves to broad risk categories, typically influenced by their own or familial experiences of BC. In deciding about risk-reduction procedures, some women reported weighing the risks and benefits, but papers did not describe how they did so. For many women, however, an overriding wish to reduce intense worry about BC led them to choose aggressive risk-reducing procedures without such deliberation. Reasoning that categorisation is a fundamental aspect of risk perception, we argue that patients can be encouraged to develop more nuanced and accurate categorisations of their own risk through their interactions with clinicians. Empirically-based ethical reflection is required to determine whether and when it is appropriate to provide risk-reduction procedures to alleviate worry. © 2016 The Authors. Psycho-Oncology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Garlic powder intake and cardiovascular risk factors: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials

PubMed Central

Kwak, Jin Sook; Kim, Ji Yeon; Paek, Ju Eun; Lee, You Jin; Kim, Haeng-Ran; Park, Dong-Sik

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Although preclinical studies suggest that garlic has potential preventive effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, clinical trials and reports from systematic reviews or meta-analyses present inconsistent results. The contradiction might be attributed to variations in the manufacturing process that can markedly influence the composition of garlic products. To investigate this issue further, we performed a meta-analysis of the effects of garlic powder on CVD risk factors. MATERIALS/METHODS We searched PubMed, Cochrane, Science Direct and EMBASE through May 2014. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed on 22 trials reporting total cholesterol (TC), 17 trials reporting LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), 18 trials reporting HDL cholesterol (HDL-C), 4 trials reporting fasting blood glucose (FBG), 9 trials reporting systolic blood pressure (SBP) and 10 trials reporting diastolic blood pressure (DBP). RESULTS The overall garlic powder intake significantly reduced blood TC and LDL-C by -0.41 mmol/L (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.69, -0.12) (-15.83 mg/dL [95% CI, -26.64, -4.63]) and -0.21 mmol/L (95% CI, -0.40, -0.03) (-8.11 mg/dL [95% CI, -15.44, -1.16]), respectively. The mean difference in the reduction of FBG levels was -0.96 mmol/L (95% CI, -1.91, -0.01) (-17.30 mg/dL [95% CI, -34.41, -0.18]). Evidence for SBP and DBP reduction in the garlic supplementation group was also demonstrated by decreases of -4.34 mmHg (95% CI, -8.38, -0.29) and -2.36 mmHg (95% CI, -4.56, -0.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS This meta-analysis provides consistent evidence that garlic powder intake reduces the CVD risk factors of TC, LDL-C, FBG and BP. PMID:25489404

Garlic powder intake and cardiovascular risk factors: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials.

PubMed

Kwak, Jin Sook; Kim, Ji Yeon; Paek, Ju Eun; Lee, You Jin; Kim, Haeng-Ran; Park, Dong-Sik; Kwon, Oran

2014-12-01

Although preclinical studies suggest that garlic has potential preventive effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, clinical trials and reports from systematic reviews or meta-analyses present inconsistent results. The contradiction might be attributed to variations in the manufacturing process that can markedly influence the composition of garlic products. To investigate this issue further, we performed a meta-analysis of the effects of garlic powder on CVD risk factors. We searched PubMed, Cochrane, Science Direct and EMBASE through May 2014. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed on 22 trials reporting total cholesterol (TC), 17 trials reporting LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), 18 trials reporting HDL cholesterol (HDL-C), 4 trials reporting fasting blood glucose (FBG), 9 trials reporting systolic blood pressure (SBP) and 10 trials reporting diastolic blood pressure (DBP). The overall garlic powder intake significantly reduced blood TC and LDL-C by -0.41 mmol/L (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.69, -0.12) (-15.83 mg/dL [95% CI, -26.64, -4.63]) and -0.21 mmol/L (95% CI, -0.40, -0.03) (-8.11 mg/dL [95% CI, -15.44, -1.16]), respectively. The mean difference in the reduction of FBG levels was -0.96 mmol/L (95% CI, -1.91, -0.01) (-17.30 mg/dL [95% CI, -34.41, -0.18]). Evidence for SBP and DBP reduction in the garlic supplementation group was also demonstrated by decreases of -4.34 mmHg (95% CI, -8.38, -0.29) and -2.36 mmHg (95% CI, -4.56, -0.15), respectively. This meta-analysis provides consistent evidence that garlic powder intake reduces the CVD risk factors of TC, LDL-C, FBG and BP.

Prophylactic mesh to prevent parastomal hernia after end colostomy: a meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis.

PubMed

López-Cano, M; Brandsma, H-T; Bury, K; Hansson, B; Kyle-Leinhase, I; Alamino, J G; Muysoms, F

2017-04-01

Prevention of parastomal hernia (PSH) formation is crucial, given the high prevalence and difficulties in the surgical repair of PSH. To investigate the effect of a preventive mesh in PSH formation after an end colostomy, we aimed to meta-analyze all relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched five databases. For each trial, we extracted risk ratios (RRs) of the effects of mesh or no mesh. The primary outcome was incidence of PSH with a minimum follow-up of 12 months with a clinical and/or computed tomography diagnosis. RRs were combined using the random-effect model (Mantel-Haenszel). To control the risk of type I error, we performed a trial sequential analysis (TSA). Seven RCTs with low risk of bias (451 patients) were included. Meta-analysis for primary outcome showed a significant reduction of the incidence of PSH using a mesh (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.26-0.71; P = 0.0009). Regarding TSA calculation for the primary outcome, the accrued information size (451) was 187.1% of the estimated required information size (RIS) (241). Wound infection showed no statistical differences between groups (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.39-1.54; P = 0.46). PSH repair rate showed a significant reduction in the mesh group (RR 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.78; P = 0.01). PSH prevention with mesh when creating an end colostomy reduces the incidence of PSH, the risk for subsequent PSH repair and does not increase wound infections. TSA shows that the RIS is reached for the primary outcome. Additional RCTs in the previous context are not needed.

Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

2011-12-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

2014-04-01

Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

Reduction of diabetes-related distress predicts improved depressive symptoms: A secondary analysis of the DIAMOS study.

PubMed

Reimer, André; Schmitt, Andreas; Ehrmann, Dominic; Kulzer, Bernhard; Hermanns, Norbert

2017-01-01

Depressive symptoms in people with diabetes are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes. Although successful psychosocial treatment options are available, little is known about factors that facilitate treatment response for depression in diabetes. This prospective study aims to examine the impact of known risk factors on improvement of depressive symptoms with a special interest in the role of diabetes-related distress. 181 people with diabetes participated in a randomized controlled trial. Diabetes-related distress was assessed using the Problem Areas In Diabetes (PAID) scale; depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were used to assess associations between risk factors for depression (independent variables) and improvement of depressive symptoms (dependent variable). Reliable change indices were established as criteria of meaningful reductions in diabetes distress and depressive symptoms. A reliable reduction of diabetes-related distress (15.43 points in the PAID) was significantly associated with fourfold increased odds for reliable improvement of depressive symptoms (OR = 4.25, 95% CI: 2.05-8.79; P<0.001). This result was corroborated using continuous measures of diabetes distress and depressive symptoms, showing that greater reduction of diabetes-related distress independently predicted greater improvement in depressive symptoms (ß = -0.40; P<0.001). Higher age had a positive (Odds Ratio = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.21-3.43; P<0.01) and type 2 diabetes had a negative effect on the meaningful reduction of depressive symptoms (Odds Ratio = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.04-0.35; P<0.001). The reduction of diabetes distress is a statistical predictor of improvement of depressive symptoms. Diabetes patients with comorbid depressive symptomatology might benefit from treatments to reduce diabetes-related distress.

Effects of RAAS Blockers on Atrial Fibrillation Prophylaxis: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Chaugai, Sandip; Meng, Wen Yeng; Ali Sepehry, Amir

2016-07-01

Impact of atrial fibrillation on clinical outcomes is well recognized, and application of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) blockers for the prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF) is a theoretically appealing concept. However, clinical trials have yielded inconsistent results. A pooled study of 26 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the efficacy of RAAS blockers on AF prophylaxis was performed. A total of 28 reports from 26 randomized controlled trials enrolled 165 387 patients, with an overall 24% reduction in the incidence of AF (odds ratio [OR]: 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68-0.85], P = .000). Forty-nine percent reduction in the incidence of AF (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30-0.85, P = .010) in systolic heart failure was observed, whereas no significant effect was observed in patients with diastolic heart failure, postmyocardial infarction, and high cardiovascular disease risk. There was a 19% (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-1.00, P = .037) reduction in new-onset and 54% (OR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.33-0.62, P = .000) reduction in recurrent AF in hypertensive patients with 39% (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.44-0.84, P = .003) risk reduction against calcium blockers and 41% (OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.44-0.80, P = .001) risk reduction against β blockers. Angiotensin-receptor blocker appeared marginally superior to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor in primary and secondary prevention. This study suggests that RAAS blockade effectively suppresses AF in systolic heart failure, and hypertensives derive greater benefit against new-onset and recurrent AF compared to β blockers, calcium channel blockers, and diuretics. © The Author(s) 2016.

Risks and Benefits of Salpingectomy at the Time of Sterilization.

PubMed

Castellano, Tara; Zerden, Matthew; Marsh, Laura; Boggess, Kim

2017-11-01

Bilateral salpingectomy reduces the risk ovarian cancer. The Society of Gynecologic Oncology has recommended surgeons discuss salpingectomy with patients desiring sterilization. This review summarizes current literature on the benefits and risks of bilateral salpingectomy to reduce ovarian cancer risk. Areas of insufficient evidence and directions for further research are discussed. We examined the benefits and risks of bilateral salpingectomy for female surgical sterilization, using a PubMed and EMBASE literature review. Search parameters included articles in English language and keywords "salpingectomy" or "ovarian cancer" combined with "contraception," "sterilization," or "tubal ligation." We reviewed 4 high-quality studies that investigated the increased risk reduction of bilateral salpingectomy compared with traditional sterilization. Overall, evidence shows that salpingectomy moderately decreases the risk of ovarian cancer compared with traditional sterilization. An additional 4 studies, including a meta-analysis, showed salpingectomy likely does not have significant long-term impact on ovarian reserve. Additional benefits include improved contraceptive efficacy and elimination of subsequent ectopic pregnancies. Risks include need for in vitro fertilization for patients experiencing sterilization regret, increases in operative time, and potential increases in surgical risks. Bilateral salpingectomy can reduce ovarian cancer risk compared with traditional sterilization; however, research regarding other outcomes is limited. Challenges to implementation include physician concern regarding surgical risks and patient education. Studies investigating patient-based outcomes are lacking. Bilateral salpingectomy for surgical sterilization is a reasonable option when patients are appropriately informed. Ovarian cancer risk reduction should be one of several factors considered when patients choose a surgical sterilization method.

Governance of innovation and appropriateness of hospitalization for high-risk pregnancy: the TOCOMAT system.

PubMed

Tagliaferri, Salvatore; Ippolito, Adelaide; Cuccaro, Patrizia; Annunziata, Maria Laura; Campanile, Marta; Di Lieto, Andrea

2013-07-01

Over the last 30 years, a great increase in the application of technologies in public health, with an undisputed impact on both the effectiveness of performance and the investment and management costs, has occurred. This evidence has induced the development of assessment tools to clarify the relationships among resources, outputs, and outcomes of technological innovations. This analysis was developed in order to examine the use of a telematic system for reporting remotely transmitted cardiotocographic traces, specifically (1) its impact on the health organization and on the appropriateness of the care setting used and (2) the efficiency of its adoption in a regional network. We adopted a case-control study on patients' medical records during the first 4 months of 2009, 2010, and 2011 and a cost analysis of resources used for the creation of a computerized telecardiotocography network connecting eight peripheral areas to the operations center. The case-control study showed a reduction in the average hospital stay days for high-risk patients (1.32) and for low-risk patient (1.7) with a total of cost savings of €89,628 for high-risk patients and €170,170 for low-risk patients. The cost savings of the regional network was €20,769.04. The adoption of a remote transmission system of cardiotocography provided a managerial and economic advantage in the reduction of inappropriate admissions for prepartum symptoms and an improvement in the admission indicators (hospital stay days).

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Andrew M.; DeHaye, Michael; DeLessio, Steven

2011-01-01

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

RiskScape: a new tool for comparing risk from natural hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirling, M. W.; King, A.

2010-12-01

The Regional RiskScape is New Zealand’s joint venture between GNS Science & NIWA, and represents a comprehensive and easy-to-use tool for multi-hazard-based risk and impact analysis. It has basic GIS functionality, in that it has Import/Export functions to use with GIS software. Five natural hazards have been implemented in Riskscape to date: Flood (river), earthquake, volcano (ash), tsunami and wind storm. The software converts hazard exposure information into the likely impacts for a region, for example, damage and replacement costs, casualties, economic losses, disruption, and number of people affected. It therefore can be used to assist with risk management, land use planning, building codes and design, risk identification, prioritization of risk-reduction/mitigation, determination of “best use” risk-reduction investment, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness raising, public information, realistic scenarios for exercises, and hazard event response. Three geographically disparate pilot regions have been used to develop and triall Riskscape in New Zealand, and each region is exposed to a different mix of natural hazards. Future (phase II) development of Riskscape will include the following hazards: Landslides (both rainfall and earthquake triggered), storm surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars, and climate change effects. While Riskscape developments have thus far focussed on scenario-based risk, future developments will advance the software into providing probabilistic-based solutions.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and the risk of overweight in youth: the Healthy Hearts Longitudinal Study of Cardiometabolic Health.

PubMed

McGavock, Jonathan M; Torrance, Brian D; McGuire, K Ashlee; Wozny, Paul D; Lewanczuk, Richard Z

2009-09-01

The primary objective of this longitudinal study was to determine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and the risk of overweight status in youth. To accomplish this aim we analyzed data from annual school-based surveys of cardiorespiratory fitness and anthropometry conducted between 2004 and 2006. The first analysis was performed on a cohort of 902 youth aged 6-15 years followed for 12 months to assess the association between cardiorespiratory fitness levels determined from a graded maximal field test and the risk of becoming overweight. The second analysis was conducted on a cohort of 222 youth followed for 2 years to assess the continuous association between annual changes fitness and weight gain. Children with low cardiorespiratory fitness were characterized by higher waist circumference and disproportionate weight gain over the 12-month follow-up period (P < 0.05). Within the entire cohort, the 12-month risk of overweight classification was 3.5-fold (95% confidence = 2.0-6.0, P < 0.001) higher in youth with low cardiorespiratory fitness, relative to fit peers. A time series mixed effects regression model revealed that reductions in cardiorespiratory fitness were significantly and independently associated with increasing BMI (r = -0.18, P < 0.05) in youth. Accordingly, low cardiorespiratory fitness and reductions in fitness over time are significantly associated with weight gain and the risk of overweight in children 6-15 years old. An assessment of cardiorespiratory fitness using a common field test may prove useful for the identification of youth at risk of overweight and serve as a potential target for obesity prevention.

Do Breast Implants Influence Breastfeeding? A Meta-Analysis of Comparative Studies.

PubMed

Cheng, Fengrui; Dai, Shuiping; Wang, Chiyi; Zeng, Shaoxue; Chen, Junjie; Cen, Ying

2018-06-01

Aesthetic breast implant augmentation surgery is the most popular plastic surgery worldwide. Many women choose to receive breast implants during their reproductive ages, although the long-term effects are still controversial. Research aim: We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the influence of aesthetic breast augmentation on breastfeeding. We also compared the exclusive breastfeeding rates of periareolar versus inframammary incision. A systematic search for comparative studies about breast implants and breastfeeding was performed in PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Web of Science through May 2018. Meta-analysis was conducted with a random-effects model (or fixed effects, if heterogeneity was absent). Four cohorts and one cross-sectional study were included. There was a significant reduction in the exclusive breastfeeding rate for women with breast implants compared with women without implants, pooled relative risk = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [0.46, 0.86], as well as the breastfeeding rate, pooled relative risk = 0.88, 95% confidence interval [0.81, 0.95]. There was no evidence that periareolar incision was associated with a reduction in the exclusive breastfeeding rate, pooled relative risk = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [0.45, 1.58]. Participants with breast implants are less likely to establish breastfeeding, especially exclusive breastfeeding. Periareolar incision does not appear to reduce the exclusive breastfeeding rate.

Impact of mandatory motorcycle helmet wearing legislation on head injuries in Viet Nam: results of a preliminary analysis.

PubMed

Passmore, Jonathon; Tu, Nguyen Thi Hong; Luong, Mai Anh; Chinh, Nguyen Duc; Nam, Nguyen Phuong

2010-04-01

To compare estimated prevalence of head injuries among road traffic injury patients admitted to hospitals, before and after the introduction of a mandatory helmet law in the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam. Before and after study of all road traffic injury patients with head injuries admitted to 20 provincial and central hospitals 3 months before and after the new law came into effect on 15 December 2007. Relative risk was computed and comparison made for the periods of 3 months before and after the new law. The study found a 16 percent reduction in the risk of road traffic head injuries (4683 to 3522; relative risk [RR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.87) and an 18 percent reduction in the risk of road traffic death (deaths in hospital plus injured patients discharged to die at home; 566 to 417; RR 0.82; 95% CI 0.73-0.93). Over the first 3 months of the comprehensive mandatory helmet legislation there has been a significant reduction in the risk of road traffic head injuries among patients admitted to 20 hospitals. The Viet Nam Government's decision to require all motorcycle riders and passengers to wear helmets is suspected of leading to positive road safety benefits and should be seen as a policy example for other low- and middle-income countries with a high utilization of motorcycles for transport.

Using Simulation to Compare Established and Emerging Interventions to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the United States

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack; Wile, Kristina; Trogdon, Justin G.; Hirsch, Gary; Cooper, Lawton; Soler, Robin; Orenstein, Diane

2014-01-01

Introduction Computer simulation offers the ability to compare diverse interventions for reducing cardiovascular disease risks in a controlled and systematic way that cannot be done in the real world. Methods We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to analyze the effect of 50 intervention levers, grouped into 6 (2 x 3) clusters on the basis of whether they were established or emerging and whether they acted in the policy domains of care (clinical, mental health, and behavioral services), air (smoking, secondhand smoke, and air pollution), or lifestyle (nutrition and physical activity). Uncertainty ranges were established through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results Results indicate that by 2040, all 6 intervention clusters combined could result in cumulative reductions of 49% to 54% in the cardiovascular risk-related death rate and of 13% to 21% in risk factor-attributable costs. A majority of the death reduction would come from Established interventions, but Emerging interventions would also contribute strongly. A slim majority of the cost reduction would come from Emerging interventions. Conclusion PRISM allows public health officials to examine the potential influence of different types of interventions — both established and emerging — for reducing cardiovascular risks. Our modeling suggests that established interventions could still contribute much to reducing deaths and costs, especially through greater use of well-known approaches to preventive and acute clinical care, whereas emerging interventions have the potential to contribute significantly, especially through certain types of preventive care and improved nutrition. PMID:25376017

Garlic consumption and colorectal cancer risk in man: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chiavarini, Manuela; Minelli, Liliana; Fabiani, Roberto

2016-02-01

Colorectal cancer shows large incidence variations worldwide that have been attributed to different dietary factors. We conducted a meta-analysis on the relationship between garlic consumption and colorectal cancer risk. We systematically reviewed publications obtained by searching ISI Web of Knowledge, MEDLINE and EMBASE literature databases. We extracted the risk estimate of the highest and the lowest reported categories of intake from each study and conducted meta-analysis using a random-effects model. The pooled analysis of all fourteen studies, seven cohort and seven case-control, indicated that garlic consumption was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR=0·93; 95 % CI 0·82, 1·06, P=0·281; I 2=83·6 %, P≤0·001). Separate analyses on the basis of cancer sites and sex also revealed no statistically significant effects on cancer risk. However, when separately analysed on the basis of study type, we found that garlic was associated with an approximately 37 % reduction in colorectal cancer risk in the case-control studies (combined risk estimate=0·63, 95 % CI 0·48, 0·82, P=0·001; I 2=75·6 %, P≤0·001). Our results suggest that consumption of garlic is not associated with a reduced colorectal cancer risk. Further investigations are necessary to clarify the discrepancy between results obtained from different types of epidemiological studies.

Preliminary Candidate Advanced Avionics System (PCAAS). [reduction in single pilot workload during instrument flight rules flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teper, G. L.; Hon, R. H.; Smyth, R. K.

1977-01-01

Specifications which define the system functional requirements, the subsystem and interface needs, and other requirements such as maintainability, modularity, and reliability are summarized. A design definition of all required avionics functions and a system risk analysis are presented.

Reduction in Sexual Risk Behaviors among College Students Following a Comprehensive Health Education Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, James C.; And Others

1993-01-01

Researchers studied college students' sexual behavior and the association of a comprehensive health education program with subsequent sexual risk behavior modifications. Pre- and postintervention surveys indicated the intervention created short-term reduction in sexual risk behaviors, but the reduction varied according to gender. (SM)

Volar plate fixation failure for volar shearing distal radius fractures with small lunate facet fragments.

PubMed

Beck, John D; Harness, Neil G; Spencer, Hillard T

2014-04-01

To determine the percentage of AO B3 distal radius fractures that lose reduction after operative fixation and to see whether fracture morphology, patient factors, or fixation methods predict failure. We hypothesized that initial fracture displacement, amount of lunate facet available for fixation, plate position, and screw fixation would be significant risk factors for loss of reduction. A prospective, observational review was conducted of 51 patients (52 fractures) with AO B3 (volar shearing) distal radius fractures treated operatively between January 2007 and June 2012. We reviewed a prospective distal radius registry to determine demographic data, medical comorbidities, and physical examination findings. Radiographs were evaluated for AO classification, loss of reduction, length of volar cortex available for fixation, and adequacy of stabilization of the lunate facet fragment with a volar plate. Preoperative data were compared between patients who maintained radiographic alignment and those with loss of reduction. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was completed to determine significant predictors of loss of reduction. Volar shearing fractures with separate scaphoid and lunate facet fragments (AO B3.3), preoperative lunate subsidence distance, and length of volar cortex available for fixation were significant predictors for loss of reduction; the latter was significant in multivariate analysis. Plate position and number of screws used to stabilize the lunate facet were not statistically different between groups. Patients with AO B3.3 fractures with less than 15 mm of lunate facet available for fixation, or greater than 5 mm of initial lunate subsidence, are at risk for failure even if a volar plate is properly placed. In these cases, we recommend additional fixation to maintain reduction of the small volar lunate facet fracture fragments in the form of plate extensions, pins, wires, suture, wire forms, or mini screws. Therapeutic III. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus; Xu, Hairong; Eke, Ahizechukwu C

2014-01-23

Amnioinfusion is thought to dilute meconium present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. To assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (1 December 2013). Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium staining of the amniotic fluid. Three review authors independently assessed eligibility and trial quality, and extracted data. Fourteen studies of variable quality (4435 women) are included.Subgroup analysis was performed for studies from settings with limited facilities to monitor the baby's condition during labour and intervene effectively, and settings with standard peripartum surveillance.Settings with standard peripartum surveillance: there was considerable heterogeneity for several outcomes. There was no significant reduction in the primary outcomes meconium aspiration syndrome, perinatal death or severe morbidity, and maternal death or severe morbidity. There was a reduction in caesarean sections (CSs) for fetal distress but not overall. Meconium below the vocal cords diagnosed by laryngoscopy was reduced, as was neonatal ventilation or neonatal intensive care unit admission, but there was no significant reduction in perinatal deaths or other morbidity. Planned sensitivity analysis excluding trials with greater risk of bias resulted in an absence of benefits for any of the outcomes studied.Settings with limited peripartum surveillance: three studies were included. In the amnioinfusion group there was a reduction in CS for fetal distress and overall; meconium aspiration syndrome (three studies, 1144 women; risk ratio (RR) 0.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05 to 0.52); perinatal mortality (three studies, 1151 women; RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.53) and neonatal ventilation or neonatal intensive care unit admission. In one of the studies, meconium below the vocal cords was reduced and, in the other, neonatal encephalopathy was reduced. Amnioinfusion is associated with substantive improvements in perinatal outcome only in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. It is not clear whether the benefits are due to dilution of meconium or relief of oligohydramnios.In settings with standard peripartum surveillance, some non-substantive outcomes were improved in the initial analysis, but sensitivity analysis excluding trials with greater risk of bias eliminated these differences. Amnioinfusion is either ineffective in this setting, or its effects are masked by other strategies to optimise neonatal outcome.The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

A profile of skin cancer prevention media coverage in 2009.

PubMed

Cokkinides, Vilma; Kirkland, Deborah; Andrews, Kimberly; Sullivan, Kristen; Lichtenfeld, J Leonard

2012-10-01

Little is known about the coverage of skin cancer prevention messages in news print media. To perform a content analysis of mass-media articles from newspaper and magazines pertaining to skin cancer prevention in 4 specific months (January, May, July, and October) in 2009 and assess the extent of coverage of skin cancer prevention messages. We conducted a content analysis of 144 articles related to skin cancer prevention extracted from strategic media scans of selected months in 2009. We sought to provide the frequency of mass-media content categorized by theme and focus related to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) protection and risk-reducing behaviors. The audience for the vast majority (78%) of the articles was the general public. Among the assessed articles, more were published in May (49%) and July (35%) than in the remaining other months. The two most frequent themes focused on 'protection of the skin' (32%) and on 'skin cancer prevention' (23%) via risk reduction behavioral practices. Analysis of message content regarding UVR reduction practices showed that many mentioned 'use of sunscreen' (65% of messages) with the least-often mentioned behaviors being 'seek shade' (6.3%) and 'do not burn' (1.4%). In addition, a quarter of the articles lacked any content mentioning recommended UVR reduction behaviors. This study was limited to the narrow scope of articles published in 2009 and for selected months. This profile of mass-media content regarding skin cancer prevention revealed gaps in coverage of UVR reduction behaviors with possible room for improvement. Strategies for improving and comprehensiveness of coverage of recommended skin cancer prevention behaviors in the media are discussed. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating risk reduction required to break even in a health promotion program.

PubMed

Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Goetzel, Ron Z; Santoro, Jan; Saenz, Betty-Jo; Eley, Christine; Gorsky, Bob

2004-01-01

To illustrate a formula to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on a corporate health promotion program. A case study design was implemented. Base year (2001) health risk and medical expenditure data from the company, along with published information on the relationships between employee demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures, were used to forecast demographics, risks, and expenditures for 2002 through 2011 and estimate the required amount of risk reduction. Motorola. 52,124 domestic employees. Demographics included age, gender, race, and job type. Health risks for 2001 were measured via health risk appraisal. Risks were noted as either high or low and related to exercise/eating habits, body weight, blood pressure, blood sugar levels, cholesterol levels, depression, stress, smoking/drinking habits, and seat belt use. Medical claims for 2001 were used to calculate medical expenditures per employee. Assuming a dollar 282 per employee program cost, Motorola employees would need to reduce their lifestyle-related health risks by 1.08% to 1.42% per year to break even on health promotion programming, depending upon the discount rate. Higher or lower program investments would change the risk reduction percentages. Employers can use information from published studies, along with their own data, to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on their health promotion programs.

Telemedicine cardiovascular risk reduction in veterans: The CITIES trial.

PubMed

Bosworth, Hayden B; Olsen, Maren K; McCant, Felicia; Stechuchak, Karen M; Danus, Susanne; Crowley, Matthew J; Goldstein, Karen M; Zullig, Leah L; Oddone, Eugene Z

2018-05-01

Comprehensive programs addressing tailored patient self-management and pharmacotherapy may reduce barriers to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction. This is a 2-arm (clinical pharmacist specialist-delivered, telehealth intervention and education control) randomized controlled trial including Veterans with poorly controlled hypertension and/or hypercholesterolemia. Primary outcome was Framingham CVD risk score at 6 and 12 months, with systolic blood pressure; diastolic blood pressure; total cholesterol; low-density lipoprotein; high-density lipoprotein; body mass index; and, for those with diabetes, HbA1c as secondary outcomes. Among 428 Veterans, 50% were African American, 85% were men, and 33% had limited health literacy. Relative to the education control group, the clinical pharmacist specialist-delivered intervention did not show a reduction in CVD risk score at 6 months (-1.8, 95% CI -3.9 to 0.3; P = .10) or 12 months (-0.3, 95% CI -2.4 to 1.7; P = .74). No differences were seen in systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, or low-density lipoprotein at 6 or 12 months. We did observe a significant decline in total cholesterol at 6 months (-7.0, 95% CI -13.4 to -0.6; P = .03) in the intervention relative to education control group. Among patients in the intervention group, 34% received at least 5 of the 12 planned intervention calls and were considered "compliers." A sensitivity analysis of the "complier average causal effect" of intervention compared to control showed a mean difference in CVD risk score reduction of 5.7 (95% CI -12.0 to 0.7) at 6 months and -1.7 (95% CI -7.6 to 4.8) at 12 months. Despite increased access to pharmacist resources, we did not observe significant improvements in CVD risk for patients randomized to the intervention compared to education control over 12 months. However, the intervention may have positive impact among those who actively participate, particularly in the short term. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of risk reduction behavioral counseling for Ebola virus disease survivors enrolled in the Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study, 2015-2016

PubMed Central

Malik, Tasneem; Ariyarajah, Archchun; Ongpin, Patricia; Hogben, Matthew; McDonald, Suzanna L. R.; Marrinan, Jaclyn; Massaquoi, Thomas; Thorson, Anna; Ervin, Elizabeth; Bernstein, Kyle; Ross, Christine; Liu, William J.; Kroeger, Karen; Durski, Kara N.; Broutet, Nathalie; Knust, Barbara; Deen, Gibrilla F.

2017-01-01

Background During the 2014–2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study was initiated to investigate this risk by assessing EBOV persistence in numerous body fluids of EVD survivors and providing risk reduction counseling based on test results for semen, vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, urine, rectal fluid, sweat, tears, saliva, and breast milk. This publication describes implementation of the counseling protocol and the key lessons learned. Methodology/Principal findings The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol was developed from a framework used to prevent transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The framework helped to identify barriers to risk reduction and facilitated the development of a personalized risk-reduction plan, particularly around condom use and abstinence. Pre-test and post-test counseling sessions included risk reduction guidance, and post-test counseling was based on the participants’ individual test results. The behavioral counseling protocol enabled study staff to translate the study’s body fluid test results into individualized information for study participants. Conclusions/Significance The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol provided guidance to mitigate the risk of EBOV transmission from EVD survivors. It has since been shared with and adapted by other EVD survivor body fluid testing programs and studies in Ebola-affected countries. PMID:28892490

Cardiovascular Events Following Smoke-Free Legislations: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda R.; Barnoya, Joaquin; Stranges, Saverio; Losonczy, Lia; Navas-Acien, Ana

2014-01-01

Background Legislations banning smoking in indoor public places and workplaces are being implemented worldwide to protect the population from secondhand smoke exposure. Several studies have reported reductions in hospitalizations for acute coronary events following the enactment of smoke-free laws. Objective We set out to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies examining how legislations that ban smoking in indoor public places impact the risk of acute coronary events. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant bibliographies including previous systematic reviews for studies that evaluated changes in acute coronary events, following implementation of smoke-free legislations. Studies were identified through December 2013. We pooled relative risk (RR) estimates for acute coronary events comparing post- vs. pre-legislation using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models. Results Thirty-one studies providing estimates for 47 locations were included. The legislations were implemented between 1991 and 2010. Following the enactment of smoke-free legislations, there was a 12 % reduction in hospitalizations for acute coronary events (pooled RR: 0.88, 95 % CI: 0.85–0.90). Reductions were 14 % in locations that implemented comprehensive legislations compared to an 8 % reduction in locations that only had partial restrictions. In locations with reductions in smoking prevalence post-legislation above the mean (2.1 % reduction) there was a 14 % reduction in events compared to 10 % in locations below the mean. The RRs for acute coronary events associated with enacting smoke-free legislation were 0.87 vs. 0.89 in locations with smoking prevalence pre-legislation above and below the mean (23.1 %), and 0.87 vs. 0.89 in studies from the Americas vs. other regions. Conclusion The implementation of smoke-free legislations was related to reductions in acute coronary event hospitalizations in most populations evaluated. Benefits are greater in locations with comprehensive legislations and with greater reduction in smoking prevalence post-legislation. These cardiovascular benefits reinforce the urgent need to enact and enforce smoke-free legislations that protect all citizens around the world from exposure to tobacco smoke in public places. PMID:25328861

Analysis of the Military Medical Retirement System

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

Willingness-to-pay ( WTP ) studies examine how much an individual is willing to pay in order to decrease their risk of death. Contingent valuation...lacks a budgetary constraint, while the WTP approach is bound by the limits of one’s budget (EPA 1990: I-1). WTP is further distinguished into two...that reduction in the risk of death” (Lanoie et al 1995: 236). The summation of each person’s WTP is the overall value of statistical life. The

Coffee consumption modifies risk of estrogen-receptor negative breast cancer

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Breast cancer is a complex disease and may be sub-divided into hormone-responsive (estrogen receptor (ER) positive) and non-hormone-responsive subtypes (ER-negative). Some evidence suggests that heterogeneity exists in the associations between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk, according to different estrogen receptor subtypes. We assessed the association between coffee consumption and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in a large population-based study (2,818 cases and 3,111 controls), overall, and stratified by ER tumour subtypes. Methods Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using the multivariate logistic regression models fitted to examine breast cancer risk in a stratified case-control analysis. Heterogeneity among ER subtypes was evaluated in a case-only analysis, by fitting binary logistic regression models, treating ER status as a dependent variable, with coffee consumption included as a covariate. Results In the Swedish study, coffee consumption was associated with a modest decrease in overall breast cancer risk in the age-adjusted model (OR> 5 cups/day compared to OR≤ 1 cup/day: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.99, P trend = 0.028). In the stratified case-control analyses, a significant reduction in the risk of ER-negative breast cancer was observed in heavy coffee drinkers (OR> 5 cups/day compared to OR≤ 1 cup/day : 0.43, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.72, P trend = 0.0003) in a multivariate-adjusted model. The breast cancer risk reduction associated with higher coffee consumption was significantly higher for ER-negative compared to ER-positive tumours (P heterogeneity (age-adjusted) = 0.004). Conclusions A high daily intake of coffee was found to be associated with a statistically significant decrease in ER-negative breast cancer among postmenopausal women. PMID:21569535

Blood pressure-lowering effects of nifedipine/candesartan combinations in high-risk individuals: subgroup analysis of the DISTINCT randomised trial.

PubMed

Mancia, G; Cha, G; Gil-Extremera, B; Harvey, P; Lewin, A J; Villa, G; Kjeldsen, S E

2017-03-01

The DISTINCT study (reDefining Intervention with Studies Testing Innovative Nifedipine GITS-Candesartan Therapy) investigated the efficacy and safety of nifedipine GITS/candesartan cilexetil combinations vs respective monotherapies and placebo in patients with hypertension. This descriptive sub-analysis examined blood pressure (BP)-lowering effects in high-risk participants, including those with renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate<90 ml min -1 , n=422), type 2 diabetes mellitus (n=202), hypercholesterolaemia (n=206) and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (n=971), as well as the impact of gender, age and body mass index (BMI). Participants with grade I/II hypertension were randomised to treatment with nifedipine GITS (N) 20, 30, 60 mg and/or candesartan cilexetil (C) 4, 8, 16, 32 mg or placebo for 8 weeks. Mean systolic BP and diastolic BP reductions after treatment in high-risk participants were greater, overall, with N/C combinations vs respective monotherapies or placebo, with indicators of a dose-response effect. Highest rates of BP control (ESH/ESC 2013 guideline criteria) were also achieved with highest doses of N/C combinations in each high-risk subgroup. The benefits of combination therapy vs monotherapy were additionally observed in patient subgroups categorised by gender, age or BMI. All high-risk participants reported fewer vasodilatory adverse events in the pooled N/C combination therapy than the N monotherapy group. In conclusion, consistent with the DISTINCT main study outcomes, high-risk participants showed greater reductions in BP and higher control rates with N/C combinations compared with respective monotherapies and lesser vasodilatory side-effects compared with N monotherapy.

Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

PubMed

Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

2017-05-01

Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

Nighttime Parenting Strategies and Sleep-Related Risks to Infants

PubMed Central

Volpe, Lane E.; Ball, Helen L.; McKenna, James J.

2012-01-01

A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004.Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may help illuminate how risks occur for individual infants. PMID:22818487

Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

PubMed

Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

2013-02-01

A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may help illuminate how risks occur for individual infants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of PM2.5 Concentration Efficiency and Potential Public Mortality Reduction in Urban China

PubMed Central

Yu, Anyu; Jia, Guangshe; You, Jianxin

2018-01-01

The particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is a serious air-pollutant emission in China, which has caused serious risks to public health. To reduce the pollution and corresponding public mortality, this paper proposes a method by incorporating slacks-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) and an integrated exposure risk (IER) model. By identifying the relationship between the PM2.5 concentration and mortality, the potential PM2.5 concentration efficiency and mortality reduction were measured. The proposed method has been applied to China’s 243 cities in 2015. Some implications are achieved. (1) There are urban disparities in estimated results around China. The geographic distribution of urban mortality reduction is consistent with that of the PM2.5 concentration efficiency, but some inconsistency also exists. (2) The pollution reduction and public health improvement should be addressed among China’s cities, especially for those in northern coastal, eastern coastal, and middle Yellow River areas. The reduction experience of PM2.5 concentration in cities of the southern coastal area could be advocated in China. (3) Environmental consideration should be part of the production adjustment of urban central China. The updating of technology is suggested for specific cities and should be considered by the policymaker. PMID:29543783

The role of aspirin dose on the prevention of preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Roberge, Stéphanie; Nicolaides, Kypros; Demers, Suzanne; Hyett, Jon; Chaillet, Nils; Bujold, Emmanuel

2017-02-01

Preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction are major causes of perinatal death and handicap in survivors. Randomized clinical trials have reported that the risk of preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction can be reduced by the prophylactic use of aspirin in high-risk women, but the appropriate dose of the drug to achieve this objective is not certain. We sought to estimate the impact of aspirin dosage on the prevention of preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing the effect of daily aspirin or placebo (or no treatment) during pregnancy. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to December 2015, and study bibliographies were reviewed. Authors were contacted to obtain additional data when needed. Relative risks for preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction were calculated with 95% confidence intervals using random-effect models. Dose-response effect was evaluated using meta-regression and reported as adjusted R 2 . Analyses were stratified according to gestational age at initiation of aspirin (≤16 and >16 weeks) and repeated after exclusion of studies at high risk of biases. In all, 45 randomized controlled trials included a total of 20,909 pregnant women randomized to between 50-150 mg of aspirin daily. When aspirin was initiated at ≤16 weeks, there was a significant reduction and a dose-response effect for the prevention of preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.75; P < .001; R 2 , 44%; P = .036), severe preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.83; P = .009; R 2 , 100%; P = .008), and fetal growth restriction (relative risk, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.70; P < .001; R 2 , 100%; P = .044) with higher dosages of aspirin being associated with greater reduction of the 3 outcomes. Similar results were observed after the exclusion of studies at high risk of biases. When aspirin was initiated at >16 weeks, there was a smaller reduction of preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.99; P = .04) without relationship with aspirin dosage (R 2 , 0%; P = .941). Aspirin initiated at >16 weeks was not associated with a risk reduction or a dose-response effect for severe preeclampsia (relative risk, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.14; P = .28; R 2 , 0%; P = .838) and fetal growth restriction (relative risk, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.05; P = .34; R 2 , not available; P = .563). Prevention of preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction using aspirin in early pregnancy is associated with a dose-response effect. Low-dose aspirin initiated at >16 weeks' gestation has a modest or no impact on the risk of preeclampsia, severe preeclampsia, and fetal growth restriction. Women at high risk for those outcomes should be identified in early pregnancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marital status independently predicts gastric cancer survival after surgical resection--an analysis of the SEER database.

PubMed

Shi, Rong-Liang; Chen, Qian; Yang, Zhen; Pan, Gaofeng; Zhang, Ziping; Wang, WeiHua; Liu, Shaoqun; Zhang, Dongbin; Jiang, Daowen; Liu, Weiyan

2016-03-15

Marital status was found to be an independent prognostic factor for survival in various cancer types, but it hasn't been studied in gastric cancer. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database was used to compare survival outcomes with marital status. A total of 16,106 eligible patients were identified. Patients in the widowed group had the highest proportion of women, more common site of stomach, more prevalence of elderly patients, higher percentage of adenocarcinoma, and more tumors at localized stage (P < 0.05). Patients in married group had better 5year cause-specific survival (CSS) than those unmarried (P < 0.05). Further analysis showed that widowed patients always presented the lowest CSS compared with that of other groups. Widowed patients had 7.1% reduction in 5-year CSS compared with married patients at Localized stage (77.2% vs 70.1%, P < 0.001), 9.6% reduction at Regional stage (38.2% vs 28.6%, P < 0.001), and 4.7% reduction at Distant stage (13.3% vs 8.6%, P < 0.001). These results showed that unmarried patients were at greater risk of cancer specific mortality. Despite favorable clinicpathological characteristics, widowed patients were at highest risk of death compared with other groups.

Dynamical Analysis of Stock Market Instability by Cross-correlation Matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2016-08-01

We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, crosscorrelation matrices are calculated with a rolling window of 400 days. To quantify the volatile market stages where the potential risk is high, we apply the principal components analysis and measure the cumulative risk fraction (CRF), which is the system variance associated with the first few principal components. From the CRF, we detected three volatile market stages corresponding to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, and the FRB QE3 reduction observation in the study period. We further apply the random matrix theory for the risk analysis and find that the first eigenvector is more equally de-localized when the market is volatile.

The Effect of Sleep Problems on Suicidal Risk among Young Adults in the Presence of Depressive Symptoms and Cognitive Processes.

PubMed

Weis, Dafna; Rothenberg, Lee; Moshe, Lital; Brent, David A; Hamdan, Sami

2015-01-01

We aimed to investigate the effect of sleep problems, depression, and cognitive processes on suicidal risk among 460 young adults. They completed self-report questionnaires assessing suicidal behavior, sleep quality, depressive symptoms, emotion regulation, rumination, and impulsivity. Suicidal participants exhibited higher rates of depressive symptoms, sleep problems, expressive suppression, rumination, and impulsivity. A confirmatory factor analysis model revealed pathways to suicidal risk that showed no direct pathways between sleep problems and suicidal risk. Instead, sleep was related to suicidal risk via depression and rumination, which in turn increased suicidal risk. These results suggest that addressing sleep problems will be useful in either the treatment or prevention of depressive and rumination symptoms and reduction in suicidal risk.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Barkoudah, Ebrahim; Kodali, Sindhura; Okoroh, Juliet; Sethi, Rosh; Hulten, Edward; Suemoto, Claudia; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

2015-05-01

Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): -2.65 to -0.91 kg; p < 0.001) more than those who received standard diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = -0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64-1.56; p = 0.993). Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Barkoudah, Ebrahim; Kodali, Sindhura; Okoroh, Juliet; Sethi, Rosh; Hulten, Edward; Suemoto, Claudia; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

2015-01-01

Introduction Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. Objective The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. Results A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): −2.65 to −0.91 kg; p < 0.001) more than those who received standard diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = −0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: −0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64–1.56; p = 0.993). Conclusion Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed. PMID:25626761

Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

PubMed

Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

2014-02-01

To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

Childhood intussusception: 17-year experience at a tertiary referral centre in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Wong, Carol W Y; Chan, Ivy H Y; Chung, Patrick H Y; Lan, Lawrence C L; Lam, Wendy W M; Wong, Kenneth K Y; Tam, Paul K H

2015-12-01

To review all paediatric patients with intussusception over the last 17 years. Retrospective case series. A tertiary centre in Hong Kong. Children who presented with intussusception from January 1997 to December 2014 were reviewed. The duration of symptoms, successful treatment modalities, complication rate, and length of hospital stay were studied. A total of 173 children (108 male, 65 female) presented to our hospital with intussusception during the study period. Their median age at presentation was 12.5 months (range, 2 months to 16 years) and the mean duration of symptoms was 2.3 (standard deviation, 1.8) days. Vomiting was the most common symptom (76.3%) followed by abdominal pain (46.2%), per rectal bleeding or red currant jelly stool (40.5%), and a palpable abdominal mass (39.3%). Overall, 160 patients proceeded to pneumatic or hydrostatic reduction, among whom 127 (79.4%) were successful. Three (1.9%) patients had bowel perforation during the procedure. Early recurrence of intussusception occurred in four (3.1%) patients with non-operative reduction. No recurrence was reported in the operative group. The presence of a palpable abdominal mass was a risk factor for operative treatment (relative risk=2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-2.2). Analysis of our results suggested that duration of symptoms did not affect the success rate of non-operative reduction. Non-operative reduction has a high success rate and low complication rate, but the presence of a palpable abdominal mass is a risk factor for failure. Operative intervention should not be delayed in those patients who encounter difficult or doubtful non-operative reduction.

Quantifying the efficiency and equity implications of power plant air pollution control strategies in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levy, J.I.; Wilson, A.M.; Zwack, L.M.

2007-05-15

We modeled the public health benefits and the change in the spatial inequality of health risk for a number of hypothetical control scenarios for power plants in the United States to determine optimal control strategies. We simulated various ways by which emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) could be distributed to reach national emissions caps. We applied a source-receptor matrix to determine the PM2.5 concentration changes associated with each control scenario and estimated the mortality reductions. We estimated changes in the spatial inequality of health risk using the Atkinson index and othermore » indicators, following previously derived axioms for measuring health risk inequality. In our baseline model, benefits ranged from 17,000-21,000 fewer premature deaths per year across control scenarios. Scenarios with greater health benefits also tended to have greater reductions in the spatial inequality of health risk, as many sources with high health benefits per unit emissions of SO{sub 2} were in areas with high background PM2.5 concentrations. Sensitivity analyses indicated that conclusions were generally robust to the choice of indicator and other model specifications. Our analysis demonstrates an approach for formally quantifying both the magnitude and spatial distribution of health benefits of pollution control strategies, allowing for joint consideration of efficiency and equity.« less

Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis.

PubMed

Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray

2014-01-01

The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs.

Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis

PubMed Central

Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D.; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray

2014-01-01

Background The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. Objectives This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Data Sources Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. Results The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. Limitations We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. Conclusions A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs. PMID:26330894

'I should have taken that further' - missed opportunities during cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with psoriasis in UK primary care settings: a mixed-methods study.

PubMed

Nelson, Pauline A; Kane, Karen; Chisholm, Anna; Pearce, Christina J; Keyworth, Christopher; Rutter, Martin K; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Griffiths, Christopher E M; Cordingley, Lis

2016-10-01

Unhealthy lifestyle is common in psoriasis, contributing to worsening disease and increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. CVD risk communication should improve patients' understanding of risk and risk-reducing behaviours; however, the effectiveness of risk screening is debated and evaluation currently limited. To examine the process of assessing for and communicating about CVD risk in the context of psoriasis. Mixed-methods study in English general practices to (i) determine proportions of CVD risk factors among patients with psoriasis at risk assessment and (ii) examine patient and practitioner experiences of risk communication to identify salient 'process' issues. Audio recordings of consultations informed in-depth interviews with patients and practitioners using tape-assisted recall, analysed with framework analysis. Patients with psoriasis (n = 287) undergoing CVD risk assessment; 29 patients and 12 practitioners interviewed. A high proportion of patients had risk factor levels apparent at risk assessment above NICE recommendations: very high waist circumference (52%), obesity (35%), raised blood pressure (29%), smoking (18%) and excess alcohol consumption (18%). There was little evidence of personalized discussion about CVD risk and behaviour change support in consultations. Professionals reported a lack of training in behaviour change, while patients wanted to discuss CVD risk/risk reduction and believed practitioners to be influential in supporting lifestyle management. Despite high levels of risk factors identified, opportunities may be missed in consultations to support patients with psoriasis to understand CVD risk/risk reduction. Practitioners need training in behaviour change techniques to capitalize on 'teachable moments' and increase the effectiveness of risk screening. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anal sexual experience and HIV risk awareness among female sex workers in Dire Dawa, eastern Ethiopia.

PubMed

Mazeingia, Yohannes Teka; Olijjira, Lemessa; Dessie, Yadeta

2017-01-01

Female sex workers have been disproportionately affected with HIV and anal sexual experience elevate their vulnerability. Anal intercourse has more risk of HIV transmission than vaginal intercourse for receptors that coupled with low condom and proper lubricant use behavior during anal sex. Besides majority of them did not understand HIV transmission risk of anal intercourse. In Ethiopia, studies on anal sexual experience is almost none existent, so the purpose of this study is to explored anal sexual experience and HIV transmission risk awareness among female sex worker in Dire Dawa, Eastern Ethiopia. Qualitative study with thematic analysis approach was conducted among 18 female sex workers and recruitment of study participants performed until saturation of information. The principal investigator conducted in-depth interviews using local language (Amharic) and it was recorded on audio recorder. Tape recorded data was transcribed and translated to English and entered into open code version 3.4 for coding and theme identification. Data collection conducted simultaneously with data analysis. Female sex workers practiced anal sex for different themes like financial influence, coercion, intentionally, peer pressure and as a sign of intimacy and love. Coercion, negative attitudes, poor awareness about HIV transmission risks of anal sex and protection capacity of condom and proper lubricants are the identified themes for not using condom and proper lubricants during anal sex by female sex workers. Inaccessibility and unavailability of health services for issues related to anal sex was the core reason for female sex workers' misperception and risk anal sexual experience. Female sex workers practiced anal sex without risk reduction approaches and they did not understand exacerbated risk of anal sex to HIV transmission. Stakeholders including ministry of health need to incorporate potential awareness raising tasks and programs about risk of anal sex and methods of risk reduction for female sex workers.

Understanding Acceptable Level of Risk: Incorporating the Economic Cost of Under-Managing Invasive Species.

PubMed

Davidson, Alisha D; Hewitt, Chad L; Kashian, Donna R

2015-01-01

Management of nonindigenous species includes prevention, early detection and rapid response and control. Early detection and rapid response depend on prioritizing and monitoring sites at risk for arrival or secondary spread of nonindigenous species. Such monitoring efforts require sufficient biosecurity budgets to be effective and meet management or policy directives for reduced risk of introduction. Such consideration of risk reduction is rarely considered, however. Here, we review the concepts of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and associated costs with respect to nonindigenous species and present a framework for aligning risk reduction priorities with available biosecurity resources. We conclude that available biosecurity resources may be insufficient to attain stated and desired risk reduction. This outcome highlights the need to consider policy and management directives when beginning a biosecurity program to determine the feasibility of risk reduction goals, given available resources.

Informing Policy for Reducing Stroke Health Disparities from the Experience of African-American Male Stroke Survivors.

PubMed

Perzynski, Adam; Blixen, Carol; Cage, Jamie; Colón-Zimmermann, Kari; Sajatovic, Martha

2016-09-01

The burden of stroke is severe among African-Americans. Despite overall declines in the rate of stroke since 2000, outcomes are largely unimproved or have worsened for African-American men. Adverse psychosocial challenges may hinder adherence to a regimen of risk factor reduction. Focus group analysis was combined with a review of current published guidelines and epidemiologic evidence on risk factors to better understand stroke health disparities and potential policy solutions. Transcripts from three focus groups with ten African-American male stroke survivors under age 65 and their care partners (N = 7) were analyzed and compared with existing published data on (a) the burden of stroke (b) trends in clinical risk factors, and (c) trends in behavioral risk factors. Participants described myriad psychosocial barriers that impede reduction of risk indicators, including low trust in providers, poor social support, access difficulties, depression, and distress. In order to be effective, policies and programs must target mechanisms consistent with the challenges faced by African-American men. Infrastructure is needed to better identify and share practices effective for improving cardiovascular outcomes within specific racial and ethnic groups.

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

Relationship among Food-Safety Knowledge, Beliefs, and Risk-Reduction Behavior in University Students in Japan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takeda, Sayaka; Akamatsu, Rie; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Marui, Eiji

2011-01-01

Objective: To identify whether university students who have both food-safety knowledge and beliefs perform risk-reduction behaviors. Design: Cross-sectional research using a questionnaire that included food-safety knowledge, perceptions, risk-reduction behavior, stages for the selection of safer food based on the Transtheoretical Model, and…

Modifiable Prostate Cancer Risk Reduction and Early Detection Behaviors in Black Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odedina, Folakemi T.; Scrivens, John J., Jr.; Larose-Pierre, Margareth; Emanuel, Frank; Adams, Angela Denise; Dagne, Getachew A.; Pressey, Shannon Alexis; Odedina, Oladapo

2011-01-01

Objective: To explore the personal factors related to modifiable prostate cancer risk-reduction and detection behaviors among black men. Methods: Three thousand four hundred thirty (3430) black men were surveyed and structural equation modeling employed to test study hypotheses. Results: Modifiable prostate cancer risk-reduction behavior was found…

Moderate quality evidence finds statistical benefit in oral health for powered over manual toothbrushes.

PubMed

Niederman, Richard

2014-09-01

The Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, CINAHL, National Institutes of Health Trials Register and the WHO Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing trials. Reference lists of identified articles were also scanned for relevant papers. Identified manufacturers were contacted for additional information. Only randomised controlled trials comparing manual and powered toothbrushes were considered. Crossover trials were eligible for inclusion if the wash-out period length was more than two weeks. Study assessment and data extraction were carried out independently by at least two reviewers. The primary outcome measures were quantified levels of plaque or gingivitis. Risk of bias assessment was undertaken. Standard Cochrane methodological approaches were taken. Random-effects models were used provided there were four or more studies included in the meta-analysis, otherwise fixed-effect models were used. Data were classed as short term (one to three months) and long term (greater than three months). Fifty-six trials were included with 51 (4624 patients) providing data for meta-analysis. The majority (46) were at unclear risk of bias, five at high risk of bias and five at low risk. There was moderate quality evidence that powered toothbrushes provide a statistically significant benefit compared with manual toothbrushes with regard to the reduction of plaque in both the short and long-term. This corresponds to an 11% reduction in plaque for the Quigley Hein index (Turesky) in the short term and a 21% reduction in the long term. There was a high degree of heterogeneity that was not explained by the different powered toothbrush type subgroups.There was also moderate quality evidence that powered toothbrushes again provide a statistically significant reduction in gingivitis when compared with manual toothbrushes both in the short and long term. This corresponds to a 6% and 11% reduction in gingivitis for the Löe and Silness indices respectively. Again there was a high degree of heterogeneity that was not explained by the different powered toothbrush type subgroups. The greatest body of evidence was for rotation oscillation brushes which demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in plaque and gingivitis at both time points. Powered toothbrushes reduce plaque and gingivitis more than manual toothbrushing in the short and long term. The clinical importance of these findings remains unclear. Observation of methodological guidelines and greater standardisation of design would benefit both future trials and meta-analyses. Cost, reliability and side effects were inconsistently reported. Any reported side effects were localised and only temporary.

Harm Reduction for Cannabis: Factor Analysis of a Protective Behavioral Strategies Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caffrey, Kathleen S.; Wright, Bruce R.; Maarhuis, Patricia L.

2018-01-01

Objective: To examine the psychometric properties of a measure of cannabis-specific Protective Behavioral Strategies (PBS), which assesses ways in which students may reduce cannabis-related risk. Participants: Respondents to the American College Health Association-National College Health Assessment II (N = 580) during Spring 2015. Methods:…

An Introductory Lesson to Environmental Health: Media Analysis and Risk Reduction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut; Rhodes, Darson L.

2010-01-01

This activity is designed to provide students with an overview of environmental health and to encourage them to think critically about how they can minimize their potential negative health impacts from environmental exposures. Objectives: Students will (a) define environmental health, (b) analyze media wherein environmental health issues are…

Willingness to Pay for Environmental Health Risk Reductions When There are Varying Degrees of Life Expectancy: A White Paper (2006)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The use of existing value of statistical life (VSL) estimates in benefit-cost analysis relates to relatively short changes in life expectancy. The authors' strategy for addressing this question is to briefly survey the existing economics literature.

Energy Technology and Market Risk Reduction | Integrated Energy Solutions |

Science.gov Websites

Leveraging our market and project development expertise, NREL offers a broad range of advisory services to policy and regulatory analysis, financing alternatives, project management, proposal reviews, and project , solar permitting standards, and more. Project Financing Alternatives We can help your organization

The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

PubMed

Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

2014-02-01

To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

Anxiety Disorders are Associated with Reduced Heart Rate Variability: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Chalmers, John A.; Quintana, Daniel S.; Abbott, Maree J.-Anne; Kemp, Andrew H.

2014-01-01

Background: Anxiety disorders increase risk of future cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, even after controlling for confounds including smoking, lifestyle, and socioeconomic status, and irrespective of a history of medical disorders. While impaired vagal function, indicated by reductions in heart rate variability (HRV), may be one mechanism linking anxiety disorders to CVD, prior studies have reported inconsistent findings highlighting the need for meta-analysis. Method: Studies comparing resting-state HRV recordings in patients with an anxiety disorder as a primary diagnosis and healthy controls were considered for meta-analysis. Results: Meta-analyses were based on 36 articles, including 2086 patients with an anxiety disorder and 2294 controls. Overall, anxiety disorders were characterized by lower HRV [high frequency (HF): Hedges’ g = −0.29. 95% CI: −0.41 to −0.17, p < 0.001; time domain: Hedges’ g = −0.45, 95% CI: −0.57 to −0.33, p < 0.001] than controls. Panic disorder (n = 447), post-traumatic stress disorder (n = 192), generalized anxiety disorder (n = 68), and social anxiety disorder (n = 90), but not obsessive–compulsive disorder (n = 40), displayed reductions in HF HRV relative to controls (all ps < 0.001). Conclusion: Anxiety disorders are associated with reduced HRV, findings associated with a small-to-moderate effect size. Findings have important implications for future physical health and well-being of patients, highlighting a need for comprehensive cardiovascular risk reduction. PMID:25071612

A randomized controlled trial targeting alcohol use and sexual assault risk among college women at high risk for victimization.

PubMed

Gilmore, Amanda K; Lewis, Melissa A; George, William H

2015-11-01

Sexual assault risk reduction programs do not target alcohol use despite the widespread knowledge that alcohol use is a risk factor for being victimized. The current study assessed the effectiveness of a web-based combined sexual assault risk and alcohol use reduction program using a randomized control trial. A total of 207 college women between the ages of 18 and 20 who engaged in heavy episodic drinking were randomized to one of five conditions: full assessment only control condition, sexual assault risk reduction condition, alcohol use reduction condition, combined sexual assault risk and alcohol use reduction condition, and a minimal assessment only condition. Participants completed a 3-month follow-up survey on alcohol-related sexual assault outcomes, sexual assault outcomes, and alcohol use outcomes. Significant interactions revealed that women with higher severity of sexual assault at baseline experienced less incapacitated attempted or completed rapes, less severity of sexual assaults, and engaged in less heavy episodic drinking compared to the control condition at the 3-month follow-up. Web-based risk reduction programs targeting both sexual assault and alcohol use may be the most effective way to target the highest risk sample of college students for sexual assault: those with a sexual assault history and those who engage in heavy episodic drinking. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Randomized Controlled Trial Targeting Alcohol Use and Sexual Assault Risk among College Women at High Risk for Victimization

PubMed Central

Gilmore, Amanda K.; Lewis, Melissa A.; George, William H.

2015-01-01

Current sexual assault risk reduction programs do not target alcohol use despite the widespread knowledge that alcohol use is a risk factor for being victimized. The current study assessed the effectiveness of a web-based combined sexual assault risk and alcohol use reduction program using a randomized control trial. A total of 207 college women between the ages of 18 and 20 who engaged in heavy episodic drinking were randomized to one of five conditions: full assessment only control condition, sexual assault risk reduction condition, alcohol use reduction condition, combined sexual assault risk and alcohol use reduction condition, and a minimal assessment only condition. Participants completed a 3-month follow-up survey on alcohol-related sexual assault outcomes, sexual assault outcomes, and alcohol use outcomes. Significant interactions revealed that women with higher incidence and severity of sexual assault at baseline experienced less incapacitated attempted or completed rapes, less incidence/severity of sexual assaults, and engaged in less heavy episodic drinking compared to the control condition at the 3-month follow-up. Web-based risk reduction programs targeting both sexual assault and alcohol use may be the most effective way to target the highest risk sample of college students for sexual assault: those with a sexual assault history and those who engage in heavy episodic drinking. PMID:26408290

Regional brain volume reduction and cognitive outcomes in preterm children at low risk at 9 years of age.

PubMed

Arhan, Ebru; Gücüyener, Kıvılcım; Soysal, Şebnem; Şalvarlı, Şafak; Gürses, M Ali; Serdaroğlu, Ayşe; Demir, Ercan; Ergenekon, Ebru; Türkyılmaz, Canan; Önal, Esra; Koç, Esin; Atalay, Yıldız

2017-08-01

More information is needed on "low-risk" preterm infants' neurological outcome so that they can be included in follow-up programs. A prospective study was performed to examine the regional brain volume changes compared to term children and to assess the relationship between the regional brain volumes to cognitive outcome of the low-risk preterm children at 9 years of age. Subjects comprised 22 preterm children who were determined to be at low risk for neurodevelopmental deficits with a gestational age between 28 and 33 weeks without a major neonatal morbidity in the neonatal period and 24 age-matched term control children term and matched for age, sex, and parental educational and occupational status. Regional volumetric analysis was performed for cerebellum, hippocampus, and corpus callosum area. Cognitive outcomes of both preterm and control subjects were assessed by Weschler Intelligence Scale for Children Revised (Turkish version), and attention and executive functions were assessed by Wisconsin Card Sorting Test and Stroop Test TBAG version. Low-risk preterm children showed regional brain volume reduction in cerebellum, hippocampus, and corpus callosum area and achieved statistical significance when compared with term control. When the groups were compared for all WISC-R subscale scores, preterm children at low risk had significantly lower scores on information, vocabulary, similarities, arithmetics, picture completion, block design, object assembly, and coding compared to children born at term. Preterm and term groups were compared on the Stroop Test for mistakes and corrections made on each card, the time spent for completing each card, and total mistakes and corrections. In the preterm group, we found a positive correlation between regional volumes with IQ, attention, and executive function scores. Additionally, a significant correlation was found between cerebellar volume and attention and executive function scores in the preterm group. Low-risk preterm children achieve lower scores in neurophysiological tests than children born at term. Preterm birth itself has a significant impact on regional brain volumes and cognitive outcome of children at 9 years of age. It is a risk factor for regional brain volume reductions in preterm children with low risk for neurodevelopmental deficits. The significant interaction between cerebellar volume reduction and executive function and attention may suggest that even in preterm children at low risk can have different trajectories in the growth and development of overall brain structure.

Implications of Supermarket Access, Neighborhood Walkability, and Poverty Rates for Diabetes Risk in an Employee Population

PubMed Central

Herrick, Cynthia J.; Yount, Byron W.; Eyler, Amy A.

2016-01-01

Objective Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of this study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. Design This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employee zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual and zip code level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Setting Data was collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system 2009–2012. Subjects The dataset contains 25,227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual’s first entry into the database, 15,522 individuals had complete data for analysis. Results The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2.3%. There was significant variability in individual and zip code level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percent poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Conclusions Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighborhood environment, and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health. PMID:26638995

Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

PubMed

Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

2016-08-01

Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-25

... Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate Change Impacts AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice... collection, Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate Change Impacts. The... undertake, and factors that influence these choices, particularly factors related to climate change impacts...

Effectiveness of the revision to FMVSS 301: FARS and NASS-CDS analysis of fatalities and severe injuries in rear impacts.

PubMed

Viano, David C; Parenteau, Chantal S

2016-04-01

This study investigated the change in the fatality and severe injury risks in rear impacts with vehicle model years (MY) grouped prior to, during the phase-in and after the revision to FMVSS 301. FARS and NASS-CDS data were used to determine the injury risks of non-ejected occupants in light vehicles involving non-rollover, rear impacts. The data were analyzed by MY groups: 1996-2001, 2002-2007 and 2008+ to represent the years prior to, during the phase-in and post-revision phase-in of FMVSS 301. The 1996-2013 FARS data were analyzed for rear crashes defined by the initial crash direction (IMPACT1) and direction with most damage (IMPACT2) to the rear. Fatality risk was determined by the number of fatally injured occupants per all occupants with known injury status. The 1994-2013 NASS-CDS was analyzed for rear crashes defined by the damage area variable. The risk of severe injury (MAIS 4+F) was determined as the number of occupants with MAIS 4+F injury per all occupants with known injury status. The distribution of rear crashes was determined by impact location and crash severity. NASS-CDS electronic cases with 2008+ MY vehicles were analyzed to evaluate the vehicle and occupant performance. The fatality risk was 20.6% in the 1996-2001, 17.3% in the 2002-2007 and 15.0% in the 2008+ MY vehicles using FARS with the initial crash direction variable (IMPACT1) to the rear. There was a 27.1% reduction in risk with post-FMVSS 301 vehicles 2008+ MY. The risk was 19.0%, 15.4% and 12.8% with the most damage variable (IMPACT2) to the rear. There was 32.8% reduction in risk with 2008+ MY vehicles. The NASS-CDS analysis showed that the risk of severe injury (MAIS 4+F) was 0.27±0.05% for 1996-2001, 0.30±0.13% for 2002-2007 and 0.08±0.04% for 2008+ MY year vehicles. There was a 70.2% reduction in the risk for severe injury with 2008+ MY vehicles. The NASS-CDS case review of MAIS 4+F injury in rear impacts of 2008+ MY vehicles that comply with the revised FMVSS 301 indicated that the crashes were very severe and generally involved significant 2nd row intrusion. The revision to FMVSS 301 has effectively reduced the risks for fatal and severe injury in vehicles compliant with the revision (2008+ MY). The reduction was 27.1-32.8% in fatality risk using FARS data and 70.2% in severe injury risk using the NASS-CDS when compared to vehicles prior to the phase-in of the revised FMVSS 301 (1996-2001 MY vehicles). It is not possible to parse the effects of other design changes in seats and restraint systems that also increased safety over the study years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patterns of harm reduction service utilization and HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in Ukraine: A two-part latent profile analysis.

PubMed

Ompad, Danielle C; Wang, Jiayu; Dumchev, Konstantin; Barska, Julia; Samko, Maria; Zeziulin, Oleksandr; Saliuk, Tetiana; Varetska, Olga; DeHovitz, Jack

2017-05-01

Program utilization patterns are described within a large network of harm reduction service providers in Ukraine. The relationship between utilization patterns and HIV incidence is determined among people who inject drugs (PWID) controlling for oblast-level HIV incidence and treatment/syringe coverage. Data were extracted from the network's monitoring and evaluation database (January 2011-September 2014, n=327,758 clients). Latent profile analysis was used to determine harm reduction utilization patterns using the number of HIV tests received annually and the number of condoms, syringes, and services (i.e., information and counseling sessions) received monthly over a year. Cox proportional hazards regression determined the relations between HIV seroconversion and utilization class membership. In the final 4-class model, class 1 (34.0% of clients) received 0.1 HIV tests, 1.3 syringes, 0.6 condom and minimal counseling and information sessions per month; class 2 (33.6%) received 8.6 syringes, 3.2 condoms, and 0.5 HIV tests and counseling and information sessions; class 3 (19.1%) received 1 HIV test, 11.9 syringes, 4.3 condoms, and 0.7 information and counseling sessions; class 4 (13.3%) received 1 HIV test, 26.1 syringes, 10.3 condoms, and 1.8 information and 1.9 counseling sessions. Class 4 clients had significantly decreased risk for HIV seroconversion as compared to those in class 1 after controlling for oblast-level characteristics. Injection drug use continues to be a major mode of HIV transmission in Ukraine, making evaluation of harm reduction efforts in reducing HIV incidence among PWID critical. These analyses suggest that receiving more syringes and condoms decreased risk of HIV. Scaling up HIV testing and harm reduction services is warranted. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fibrates are an essential part of modern anti-dyslipidemic arsenal: spotlight on atherogenic dyslipidemia and residual risk reduction.

PubMed

Tenenbaum, Alexander; Fisman, Enrique Z

2012-10-11

Currently the world faces epidemic of several closely related conditions: obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The lipid profile of these patients and those with metabolic syndrome is characterized by the concurrent presence of qualitative as well as quantitative lipoprotein abnormalities: low levels of HDL, increased triglycerides, and prevalence of LDL particles that are smaller and denser than normal. This lipid phenotype has been defined as atherogenic dyslipidemia. Overwhelming evidences demonstrate that all components of the atherogenic dyslipidemia are important risk-factors for cardiovascular diseases. Optimal reduction of cardiovascular risk through comprehensive management of atherogenic dyslipidemias basically depends of the presence of efficacious lipid-modulating agents (beyond statin-based reduction of LDL-C). The most important class of medications which can be effectively used nowadays to combat atherogenic dyslipidemias is the fibrates. From a clinical point of view, in all available 5 randomized control trials beneficial effects of major fibrates (gemfibrozil, fenofibrate, bezafibrate) were clearly demonstrated and were highly significant in patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In these circumstances, the main determinant of the overall results of the trial is mainly dependent of the number of the included appropriate patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In a meta-analysis of dyslipidemic subgroups totaling 4726 patients a significant 35% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular events was observed compared with a non significant 6% reduction in those without dyslipidemia. However, different fibrates may have a somewhat different spectrum of effects. Currently only fenofibrate was investigated and proved to be effective in reducing microvascular complications of diabetes. Bezafibrate reduced the severity of intermittent claudication. Cardinal differences between bezafibrate and other fibrates are related to the effects on glucose metabolism and insulin resistance. Bezafibrate is the only clinically available pan - (alpha, beta, gamma) PPAR balanced activator. Bezafibrate decreases blood glucose level, HbA1C, insulin resistance and reduces the incidence of T2DM compared to placebo or other fibrates. Among major fibrates, bezafibrate appears to have the strongest and fenofibrate the weakest effect on HDL-C. Current therapeutic use of statins as monotherapy is still leaving many patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia at high risk for coronary events because even intensive statin therapy does not eliminate the residual cardiovascular risk associated with low HDL and/or high triglycerides. As compared with statin monotherapy (effective mainly on LDL-C levels and plaque stabilization), the association of a statin with a fibrate will also have a major impact on triglycerides, HDL and LDL particle size. Moreover, in the specific case of bezafibrate one could expect neutralizing of the adverse pro-diabetic effect of statins. Though muscle pain and myositis is an issue in statin/fibrate treatment, adverse interaction appears to occur to a significantly greater extent when gemfibrozil is administered. However, bezafibrate and fenofibrate seems to be safer and better tolerated. Combined fibrate/statin therapy is more effective in achieving a comprehensive lipid control and may lead to additional cardiovascular risk reduction, as could be suggested for fenofibrate following ACCORD Lipid study subgroup analysis and for bezafibrate on the basis of one small randomized study and multiple observational data. Therefore, in appropriate patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia fibrates- either as monotherapy or combined with statins - are consistently associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. Fibrates currently constitute an indispensable part of the modern anti-dyslipidemic arsenal for patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Fibrates are an essential part of modern anti-dyslipidemic arsenal: spotlight on atherogenic dyslipidemia and residual risk reduction

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Currently the world faces epidemic of several closely related conditions: obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The lipid profile of these patients and those with metabolic syndrome is characterized by the concurrent presence of qualitative as well as quantitative lipoprotein abnormalities: low levels of HDL, increased triglycerides, and prevalence of LDL particles that are smaller and denser than normal. This lipid phenotype has been defined as atherogenic dyslipidemia. Overwhelming evidences demonstrate that all components of the atherogenic dyslipidemia are important risk-factors for cardiovascular diseases. Optimal reduction of cardiovascular risk through comprehensive management of atherogenic dyslipidemias basically depends of the presence of efficacious lipid-modulating agents (beyond statin-based reduction of LDL-C). The most important class of medications which can be effectively used nowadays to combat atherogenic dyslipidemias is the fibrates. From a clinical point of view, in all available 5 randomized control trials beneficial effects of major fibrates (gemfibrozil, fenofibrate, bezafibrate) were clearly demonstrated and were highly significant in patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In these circumstances, the main determinant of the overall results of the trial is mainly dependent of the number of the included appropriate patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In a meta-analysis of dyslipidemic subgroups totaling 4726 patients a significant 35% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular events was observed compared with a non significant 6% reduction in those without dyslipidemia. However, different fibrates may have a somewhat different spectrum of effects. Currently only fenofibrate was investigated and proved to be effective in reducing microvascular complications of diabetes. Bezafibrate reduced the severity of intermittent claudication. Cardinal differences between bezafibrate and other fibrates are related to the effects on glucose metabolism and insulin resistance. Bezafibrate is the only clinically available pan - (alpha, beta, gamma) PPAR balanced activator. Bezafibrate decreases blood glucose level, HbA1C, insulin resistance and reduces the incidence of T2DM compared to placebo or other fibrates. Among major fibrates, bezafibrate appears to have the strongest and fenofibrate the weakest effect on HDL-C. Current therapeutic use of statins as monotherapy is still leaving many patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia at high risk for coronary events because even intensive statin therapy does not eliminate the residual cardiovascular risk associated with low HDL and/or high triglycerides. As compared with statin monotherapy (effective mainly on LDL-C levels and plaque stabilization), the association of a statin with a fibrate will also have a major impact on triglycerides, HDL and LDL particle size. Moreover, in the specific case of bezafibrate one could expect neutralizing of the adverse pro-diabetic effect of statins. Though muscle pain and myositis is an issue in statin/fibrate treatment, adverse interaction appears to occur to a significantly greater extent when gemfibrozil is administered. However, bezafibrate and fenofibrate seems to be safer and better tolerated. Combined fibrate/statin therapy is more effective in achieving a comprehensive lipid control and may lead to additional cardiovascular risk reduction, as could be suggested for fenofibrate following ACCORD Lipid study subgroup analysis and for bezafibrate on the basis of one small randomized study and multiple observational data. Therefore, in appropriate patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia fibrates- either as monotherapy or combined with statins – are consistently associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. Fibrates currently constitute an indispensable part of the modern anti-dyslipidemic arsenal for patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. PMID:23057687

Effectiveness of regionalization of trauma care services: a systematic review.

PubMed

Vali, Y; Rashidian, A; Jalili, M; Omidvari, A H; Jeddian, A

2017-05-01

Improving trauma systems in various forms has always been an important aspect of health policy. While several papers have reported the implementation of a structured trauma system of care, research evidence on the effectiveness of such regionalization for improvement in trauma outcome is limited. Systematic review. Medline, EMbase, EconLit and Health Management Information Consortium were searched, using sensitive search terms, for interventional studies that reported a trauma regionalization system as their intervention, and compared important outcomes such as mortality and preventable deaths. At least two authors assessed eligibility for inclusion and risk of bias, and extracted data from the included studies. As meta-analysis was not possible for all studies, two controlled before-after studies were included in the meta-analysis, and a narrative analysis was conducted for the other studies. After title and abstract sifting, 66 papers were retrieved. After reading the full texts, a total of 24 studies from the USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands were included in this review. In spite of variation in study specifications, most were before-after studies with a high risk of bias. Although a reduction in mortality was shown in most studies, only two studies were eligible for meta-analysis, and the results showed a significant reduction in mortality after implementation of an organized trauma system (odds ratio 0.840, 95% confidence interval 0.756-0.924; P = 0.00). Correlation was found between a regionalized network of trauma care and a reduction in trauma-related mortality, based on studies that did not exclude the effects of other concurrent changes on observed reductions. It is recommended that more studies with robust research designs should be conducted in a more diverse range of countries to assess the effectiveness of regionalization. Despite this limitation, the present findings support the regionalization of trauma care services. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

Reduction of infarct size by gentle reperfusion without activation of reperfusion injury salvage kinases in pigs.

PubMed

Musiolik, Judith; van Caster, Patrick; Skyschally, Andreas; Boengler, Kerstin; Gres, Petra; Schulz, Rainer; Heusch, Gerd

2010-01-01

Reperfusion is mandatory to salvage ischaemic myocardium from infarction, but also induces additional reperfusion injury and contributes to infarct size (IS). Gentle reperfusion (GR) has been proposed to attenuate reperfusion injury, but this remains contentious. We now investigated whether (i) GR reduces IS and (ii) GR is associated with the activation of reperfusion injury salvage kinases (RISK). Anaesthetized pigs were subjected to 90 min left anterior descending coronary artery hypoperfusion and 120 min reperfusion. GR was induced by slowly increasing coronary inflow back to baseline over 30 min, using an exponential algorithm [F(t) = F(i)+e(-(0.1)(t)((min)-3)).(F(b)-F(i)); F(b), coronary inflow at baseline; F(i), coronary inflow during ischaemia; n = 12]. Pigs subjected to immediate full reperfusion (IFR; n = 13) served as controls. IS was determined by triphenyl tetrazolium chloride staining. The expression level of phosphorylated RISK proteins was determined by western blot analysis in myocardial biopsies taken at baseline, after 80-85 min ischaemia and at 10, 30, and 120 min reperfusion. In additional experiments with IFR (n = 3) and GR (n = 3), the PI3-AKT and MEK1/2-ERK1/2 pathways were pharmacologically blocked (BL). IS was 37 +/- 2% (mean +/- SEM) of the area at risk with IFR and 29 +/- 1% (P < 0.05) with GR. RISK phosphorylation was similar between GR and IFR at baseline and 85 min ischaemia. At 10 min reperfusion, RISK phosphorylation was increased with IFR, but not with GR. At 30 and 120 min reperfusion, RISK phosphorylation was still greater with IFR than GR. RISK blockade did not abolish the IS reduction by GR (BL-IFR: 27 +/- 4% of the area at risk; BL-GR: 42 +/- 5%; P < 0.05). Gentle reperfusion reduces infarct size in pigs, but RISK activation is not causally involved in this infarct size reduction.

Blood pressure and stroke: an overview of published reviews.

PubMed

Lawes, Carlene M M; Bennett, Derrick A; Feigin, Valery L; Rodgers, Anthony

2004-03-01

The last few years have seen a considerable increase in the amount of information available concerning blood pressure (BP) and stroke associations. This article provides an overview of published reviews of the effects on stroke seen in trials of BP-lowering drugs and compares these with the results available from cohort studies. We present a review of major overviews of prospective cohort studies and an updated meta-analysis of >40 randomized controlled trials of BP lowering, which included >188 000 participants and approximately 6800 stroke events. Cohort studies now indicate that in the Asia Pacific region as well as in North America and Western Europe, each 10 mm Hg lower systolic BP is associated with a decrease in risk of approximately one third in subjects aged 60 to 79 years. The association is continuous down to levels of at least 115/75 mm Hg and is consistent across sexes, regions, and stroke subtypes and for fatal and nonfatal events. The proportional association is age dependent but is still a strong and positive association in those aged 80 years. Data from randomized controlled trials, in which mean age at event was approximately 70 years, indicate that a 10 mm Hg reduction in systolic BP is associated with a reduction in risk of stroke of approximately one third. Per mm Hg systolic BP reduction, the benefits for stroke appear similar between agents, by baseline BP levels, and whether or not individuals have a past history of cardiovascular disease. There is, however, evidence of greater benefit with a larger BP reduction. The epidemiologically expected benefits of BP lowering for stroke risk reduction are broadly consistent across a range of different population subgroups. There are greater benefits from larger BP reductions, and initiating and maintaining BP reduction for stroke prevention is a more important issue than choice of initial agent.

Blood pressure and stroke: an overview of published reviews.

PubMed

Lawes, Carlene M M; Bennett, Derrick A; Feigin, Valery L; Rodgers, Anthony

2004-04-01

The last few years have seen a considerable increase in the amount of information available concerning blood pressure (BP) and stroke associations. This article provides an overview of published reviews of the effects on stroke seen in trials of BP-lowering drugs and compares these with the results available from cohort studies. We present a review of major overviews of prospective cohort studies and an updated meta-analysis of >40 randomized controlled trials of BP lowering, which included >188 000 participants and approximately 6800 stroke events. Cohort studies now indicate that in the Asia Pacific region as well as in North America and Western Europe, each 10 mm Hg lower systolic BP is associated with a decrease in risk of stroke of approximately one third in subjects aged 60 to 79 years. The association is continuous down to levels of at least 115/75 mm Hg and is consistent across sexes, regions, and stroke subtypes and for fatal and nonfatal events. The proportional association is age dependent but is still strong and positive in those aged 80 years. Data from randomized controlled trials, in which mean age at event was approximately 70 years, indicate that a 10 mm Hg reduction in systolic BP is associated with a reduction in risk of stroke of approximately one third. Per mm Hg systolic BP reduction, the relative benefits for stroke appear similar between agents, by baseline BP levels, and whether or not individuals have a past history of cardiovascular disease. There is, however, evidence of greater benefit with a larger BP reduction. The epidemiologically expected benefits of BP lowering for stroke risk reduction are broadly consistent across a range of different population subgroups. There are greater benefits from larger BP reductions, and initiating and maintaining BP reduction for stroke prevention is a more important issue than choice of initial agent.

A randomized controlled trial of a brief self-help coping intervention designed to reduce distress when awaiting genetic risk information.

PubMed

Bennett, Paul; Phelps, Ceri; Brain, Kate; Hood, Kerenza; Gray, Jonathon

2007-07-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a distraction-based coping leaflet in reducing distress in women undergoing genetic risk assessment for breast/ovarian cancer. One hundred sixty-two women participated in a randomized controlled trial, receiving either the intervention or standard information. Data were collected through a postal questionnaire at entry into a genetic risk assessment programme and 1 month later. Analysis of covariance revealed a nonsignificant reduction in distress in all women, and a significant reduction of distress among those with high baseline stress, who received the intervention. No gains were found among the control group. Measures of emotional response while thinking about cancer genetic assessment suggested these benefits were achieved in the absence of any rebound emotional response. The intervention offers a low-cost effective coping intervention, which could be integrated into existing services with minimal disruption and may also be appropriate for other periods of waiting and uncertainty.

A systematic comparison of the closed shoulder reduction techniques.

PubMed

Alkaduhimi, H; van der Linde, J A; Willigenburg, N W; van Deurzen, D F P; van den Bekerom, M P J

2017-05-01

To identify the optimal technique for closed reduction for shoulder instability, based on success rates, reduction time, complication risks, and pain level. A PubMed and EMBASE query was performed, screening all relevant literature of closed reduction techniques mentioning the success rate written in English, Dutch, German, and Arabic. Studies with a fracture dislocation or lacking information on success rates for closed reduction techniques were excluded. We used the modified Coleman Methodology Score (CMS) to assess the quality of included studies and excluded studies with a poor methodological quality (CMS < 50). Finally, a meta-analysis was performed on the data from all studies combined. 2099 studies were screened for their title and abstract, of which 217 studies were screened full-text and finally 13 studies were included. These studies included 9 randomized controlled trials, 2 retrospective comparative studies, and 2 prospective non-randomized comparative studies. A combined analysis revealed that the scapular manipulation is the most successful (97%), fastest (1.75 min), and least painful reduction technique (VAS 1,47); the "Fast, Reliable, and Safe" (FARES) method also scores high in terms of successful reduction (92%), reduction time (2.24 min), and intra-reduction pain (VAS 1.59); the traction-countertraction technique is highly successful (95%), but slower (6.05 min) and more painful (VAS 4.75). For closed reduction of anterior shoulder dislocations, the combined data from the selected studies indicate that scapular manipulation is the most successful and fastest technique, with the shortest mean hospital stay and least pain during reduction. The FARES method seems the best alternative.

Association Between Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol-Lowering Genetic Variants and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lotta, Luca A; Sharp, Stephen J; Burgess, Stephen; Perry, John R B; Stewart, Isobel D; Willems, Sara M; Luan, Jian'an; Ardanaz, Eva; Arriola, Larraitz; Balkau, Beverley; Boeing, Heiner; Deloukas, Panos; Forouhi, Nita G; Franks, Paul W; Grioni, Sara; Kaaks, Rudolf; Key, Timothy J; Navarro, Carmen; Nilsson, Peter M; Overvad, Kim; Palli, Domenico; Panico, Salvatore; Quirós, Jose-Ramón; Riboli, Elio; Rolandsson, Olov; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Salamanca, Elena C; Slimani, Nadia; Spijkerman, Annemieke Mw; Tjonneland, Anne; Tumino, Rosario; van der A, Daphne L; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; McCarthy, Mark I; Barroso, Inês; O'Rahilly, Stephen; Savage, David B; Sattar, Naveed; Langenberg, Claudia; Scott, Robert A; Wareham, Nicholas J

2016-10-04

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering alleles in or near NPC1L1 or HMGCR, encoding the respective molecular targets of ezetimibe and statins, have previously been used as proxies to study the efficacy of these lipid-lowering drugs. Alleles near HMGCR are associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, similar to the increased incidence of new-onset diabetes associated with statin treatment in randomized clinical trials. It is unknown whether alleles near NPC1L1 are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. To investigate whether LDL-C-lowering alleles in or near NPC1L1 and other genes encoding current or prospective molecular targets of lipid-lowering therapy (ie, HMGCR, PCSK9, ABCG5/G8, LDLR) are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. The associations with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease of LDL-C-lowering genetic variants were investigated in meta-analyses of genetic association studies. Meta-analyses included 50 775 individuals with type 2 diabetes and 270 269 controls and 60 801 individuals with coronary artery disease and 123 504 controls. Data collection took place in Europe and the United States between 1991 and 2016. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering alleles in or near NPC1L1, HMGCR, PCSK9, ABCG5/G8, and LDLR. Odds ratios (ORs) for type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering genetic variants at NPC1L1 were inversely associated with coronary artery disease (OR for a genetically predicted 1-mmol/L [38.7-mg/dL] reduction in LDL-C of 0.61 [95% CI, 0.42-0.88]; P = .008) and directly associated with type 2 diabetes (OR for a genetically predicted 1-mmol/L reduction in LDL-C of 2.42 [95% CI, 1.70-3.43]; P < .001). For PCSK9 genetic variants, the OR for type 2 diabetes per 1-mmol/L genetically predicted reduction in LDL-C was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02-1.38; P = .03). For a given reduction in LDL-C, genetic variants were associated with a similar reduction in coronary artery disease risk (I2 = 0% for heterogeneity in genetic associations; P = .93). However, associations with type 2 diabetes were heterogeneous (I2 = 77.2%; P = .002), indicating gene-specific associations with metabolic risk of LDL-C-lowering alleles. In this meta-analysis, exposure to LDL-C-lowering genetic variants in or near NPC1L1 and other genes was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. These data provide insights into potential adverse effects of LDL-C-lowering therapy.

Research and Development Project Summaries, October 1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-10-01

delivery methods, training cost reduction, demonstration of technology’ effectiveness, and the reduction of acquisition risk . The majority of the work...demonstrations, risk reduction developments, and cost-effectiveness investigations in simulator and training technologzv. This advanced development program is a...systems. The program is organized around specific demonstration tasks that target critical technical risks that confront future weapons system

Do instability markers predict satisfactory reduction and requirement for later surgery in emergency department patients with wrist fracture?

PubMed

Winayak, Amar; Gossat, Alyza; Cooper, Jenny; Ritchie, Peter; Lim, Wei; Klim, Sharon; Kelly, Anne-Maree

2018-02-01

Research suggests that the presence of instability markers in patients with displaced distal radial fractures is associated with poorer outcome. Our aims were to determine whether the presence of previously defined instability markers could predict the likelihood of successful ED reduction and requirement for a secondary procedure after ED reduction. Retrospective cohort study performed by medical record review. Adult ED patients coded as having an isolated wrist fracture and having fracture reduction in ED were eligible for inclusion. Data collected included demographics, history of osteoporosis, mechanism of injury, radiological features on X-rays and performance of a secondary procedure. Outcomes of interest were the rate of successful fracture reduction in ED (against defined radiological criteria), the rate of secondary procedures and the association between the number of defined instability risk factors and successful reduction and performance of a secondary surgical procedure. Analysis was by χ 2 test, receiver operating characteristic curve, logistic regression analyses. Three hundred and nineteen patients were studied; median age 62 years, 77% female. Sixty-five per cent of patients had satisfactory fracture reduction in ED (95% CI 59%-70%). Eighty-six patients underwent a secondary procedure to reduce/stabilise their fracture (28%, 95% CI 23%-33%). Younger age, lack of satisfactory ED reduction and increased number of instability factors were independently predictive of the performance of a secondary procedure. Instability risk factors are common in patients with wrist fractures requiring reduction in ED. The number of instability factors is not a strong predictor of the performance of secondary procedures. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Reducing intimate and paying partner violence against women who exchange sex in Mongolia: results from a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Carlson, Catherine E; Chen, Jiehua; Chang, Mingway; Batsukh, Altantsetseg; Toivgoo, Aira; Riedel, Marion; Witte, Susan S

2012-07-01

Women who exchange sex for money or other goods, that is, female sex workers, are at increased risk of experiencing physical and sexual violence from both paying and intimate partners. Exposure to violence can be exacerbated by alcohol use and HIV/STI risk. The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of a HIV/STI risk reduction and enhanced HIV/STI risk reduction intervention at decreasing paying and intimate partner violence against Mongolian women who exchange sex and engage in harmful alcohol use. Women are recruited and randomized to either (a) four sessions of a relationship-based HIV/STI risk reduction intervention (n = 49), (b) the same HIV/STI risk reduction intervention plus two additional motivational interviewing sessions (n = 58), or (c) a four session control condition focused on wellness promotion (n = 59). All the respondents complete assessments at baseline (preintervention) as well as at immediate posttest, 3 and 6 months postintervention. A multilevel logistic model finds that women who participated in the HIV/STI risk reduction group (OR = 0.14, p < .00), HIV/STI risk reduction and motivational interview group (OR = 0.46, p = .02), and wellness (OR = 0.20, p < .00) group reduced their exposure to physical and sexual violence in the past 90 days. No significant differences in effects are observed between conditions. This study demonstrates the efficacy of a relationship-based HIV/STI risk reduction intervention, a relationship-based HIV/STI risk reduction intervention combined with motivational interviewing, and a wellness promotion intervention in reducing intimate and paying partner violence against women who exchange sex in Mongolia. The findings have significant implications for the impact of minimal intervention and the potential role of peer networks and social support in reducing women's experiences of violence in resource poor settings.

Limitations of self-care in reducing the risk of lymphedema: supportive-educative systems.

PubMed

Armer, Jane M; Brooks, Constance W; Stewart, Bob R

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine patient perceptions of limitations related to self-care measures to reduce lymphedema risk following breast cancer surgery. Secondary analysis of survey data from a companion study to a study piloting a behavioral-educational intervention was conducted to examine the specific limitations in performing lymphedema risk-reduction self-care measures. Findings suggest a more comprehensive approach is needed if patients are to engage in self-care actions to reduce lymphedema risk. Understanding the concepts of self-care and personal support interventions that include motivational interviewing can help nurses design supportive-educative care systems that assist patients in overcoming limitations in the estimative, transitional, and productive phases of self-care necessary to reduce lymphedema risk.

How the Military Health System Can Fulfill the Promise. An Analysis of the Federal Employees Health Benefit Program for the DOD

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

over the other. If DoD utilized FEHBP, advantages of size, shifting financial risk to insurers, keeping the health benefit up to date, and improved... advantages in size, reduction of administrative costs, unifying the benefit , shifting financial risk to insurers, keeping the benefit up to date...FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFIT PROGRAM FOR THE DOD by Daniel E. Lee, Major, USAF A Research Report Submitted to the Faculty In Partial

The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

PubMed

O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

2015-02-01

Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed.

The Efficacy of Serostatus Disclosure for HIV Transmission Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

O’Connell, Ann A.; Serovich, Julianne A.

2015-01-01

Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698–705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed. PMID:25164375

Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

2017-12-01

Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dietary magnesium intake and the risk of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and all-cause mortality: a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Fang, Xuexian; Wang, Kai; Han, Dan; He, Xuyan; Wei, Jiayu; Zhao, Lu; Imam, Mustapha Umar; Ping, Zhiguang; Li, Yusheng; Xu, Yuming; Min, Junxia; Wang, Fudi

2016-12-08

Although studies have examined the association between dietary magnesium intake and health outcome, the results are inconclusive. Here, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies in order to investigate the correlation between magnesium intake and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and all-cause mortality. PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched for articles that contained risk estimates for the outcomes of interest and were published through May 31, 2016. The pooled results were analyzed using a random-effects model. Forty prospective cohort studies totaling more than 1 million participants were included in the analysis. During the follow-up periods (ranging from 4 to 30 years), 7678 cases of CVD, 6845 cases of coronary heart disease (CHD), 701 cases of heart failure, 14,755 cases of stroke, 26,299 cases of T2D, and 10,983 deaths were reported. No significant association was observed between increasing dietary magnesium intake (per 100 mg/day increment) and the risk of total CVD (RR: 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88-1.10) or CHD (RR: 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-1.01). However, the same incremental increase in magnesium intake was associated with a 22% reduction in the risk of heart failure (RR: 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69-0.89) and a 7% reduction in the risk of stroke (RR: 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.97). Moreover, the summary relative risks of T2D and mortality per 100 mg/day increment in magnesium intake were 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.86) and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81-0.99), respectively. Increasing dietary magnesium intake is associated with a reduced risk of stroke, heart failure, diabetes, and all-cause mortality, but not CHD or total CVD. These findings support the notion that increasing dietary magnesium might provide health benefits.

Transcatheter aortic-valve replacement with a self-expanding prosthesis.

PubMed

Adams, David H; Popma, Jeffrey J; Reardon, Michael J; Yakubov, Steven J; Coselli, Joseph S; Deeb, G Michael; Gleason, Thomas G; Buchbinder, Maurice; Hermiller, James; Kleiman, Neal S; Chetcuti, Stan; Heiser, John; Merhi, William; Zorn, George; Tadros, Peter; Robinson, Newell; Petrossian, George; Hughes, G Chad; Harrison, J Kevin; Conte, John; Maini, Brijeshwar; Mumtaz, Mubashir; Chenoweth, Sharla; Oh, Jae K

2014-05-08

We compared transcatheter aortic-valve replacement (TAVR), using a self-expanding transcatheter aortic-valve bioprosthesis, with surgical aortic-valve replacement in patients with severe aortic stenosis and an increased risk of death during surgery. We recruited patients with severe aortic stenosis who were at increased surgical risk as determined by the heart team at each study center. Risk assessment included the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predictor Risk of Mortality estimate and consideration of other key risk factors. Eligible patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to TAVR with the self-expanding transcatheter valve (TAVR group) or to surgical aortic-valve replacement (surgical group). The primary end point was the rate of death from any cause at 1 year, evaluated with the use of both noninferiority and superiority testing. A total of 795 patients underwent randomization at 45 centers in the United States. In the as-treated analysis, the rate of death from any cause at 1 year was significantly lower in the TAVR group than in the surgical group (14.2% vs. 19.1%), with an absolute reduction in risk of 4.9 percentage points (upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval, -0.4; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P = 0.04 for superiority). The results were similar in the intention-to-treat analysis. In a hierarchical testing procedure, TAVR was noninferior with respect to echocardiographic indexes of valve stenosis, functional status, and quality of life. Exploratory analyses suggested a reduction in the rate of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and no increase in the risk of stroke. In patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at increased surgical risk, TAVR with a self-expanding transcatheter aortic-valve bioprosthesis was associated with a significantly higher rate of survival at 1 year than surgical aortic-valve replacement. (Funded by Medtronic; U.S. CoreValve High Risk Study ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01240902.).

The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latimer, John A.

2009-01-01

This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

Cost-benefit analysis of using sewage sludge as alternative fuel in a cement plant: a case study.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2009-05-01

To enforce the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol targets, a number of governmental/international institutions have launched emission trade schemes as an approach to specify CO(2) caps and to regulate the emission trade in recent years. These schemes have been basically applied for large industrial sectors, including energy producers and energy-intensive users. Among them, cement plants are included among the big greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. The use of waste as secondary fuel in clinker kilns is currently an intensive practice worldwide. However, people living in the vicinity of cement plants, where alternative fuels are being used, are frequently concerned about the potential increase in health risks. In the present study, a cost-benefit analysis was applied after substituting classical fuel for sewage sludge as an alternative fuel in a clinker kiln in Catalonia, Spain. The economical benefits resulting in the reduction of CO(2) emissions were compared with the changes in human health risks due to exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and carcinogenic metals (As, Cd, Co, and Cr) before and after using sewage sludge to generate 20% of the thermal energy needed for pyro-processing. The exposure to PCDD/Fs and metals through air inhalation, soil ingestion and dermal absorption was calculated according to the environmental levels in soil. The carcinogenic risks were assessed, and the associated cost for the population was estimated by considering the DG Environment's recommended value for preventing a statistical fatality (VPF). In turn, the amount of CO(2) emitted was calculated, and the economical saving, according to the market prices, was evaluated. The use of sewage sludge as a substitute of conventional energy meant a probability cancer decrease of 4.60 for metals and a cancer risk increase of 0.04 for PCDD/Fs. Overall, a net reduction of 4.56 cancers for one million people can be estimated. The associated economical evaluation due to the decreasing cancer for 60,000 people, the current population living near the cement plant, would be of 0.56 million euros (US$ 0.83 million). In turn, a reduction of 144,000 tons of CO(2) emitted between 2003 and 2006 was estimated. Considering a cost of 20 euros per ton of CO(2), the global saving would be 2.88 million euros (US$ 4.26 million). After the partial substitution of the fuel, the current environmental exposure to metals and PCDD/Fs would even mean a potential decrease of health risks for the individuals living in the vicinity of the cement plant. The total benefit of using sewage sludge as an alternative fuel was calculated in 3.44 million euros (US$ 5.09 million). Environmental economics is becoming an interesting research field to convert environmental benefits (i.e., reduction of health risks, emission of pollutants, etc.) into economical value. The results show, that while the use of sewage sludge as secondary fuel is beneficial for the reduction in GHG emissions, no additional health risks for the population derived from PCDD/F and metal emissions are estimated. Cost-benefit analysis seems to be a suitable tool to estimate the environmental damage and benefit associated to industrial processes. Therefore, this should become a generalized practice, mainly for those more impacting sectors such as power industries. On the other hand, the extension of the study could vastly be enlarged by taking into account other potentially emitted GHGs, such as CH(4) and N(2)O, as well as other carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic micropollutants.

Does the pancreatic volume reduction rate using serial computed tomographic volumetry predict new onset diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy?

PubMed Central

Yun, Sung Pil; Seo, Hyung-Il; Kim, Suk; Kim, Dong Uk; Baek, Dong Hoon

2017-01-01

Abstract Volume reduction of the pancreatic tissues following a pancreatectomy can lead to the deterioration of glucose homeostasis. This is defined as pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus (DM). The objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of new-onset DM (NODM) and evaluate the risk factors, including the pancreas volume reduction rate in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Sixty-six patients without preoperative DM underwent PD for periampullary tumors between August 2007 and December 2012 and were included in this analysis. These patients underwent follow-up tests and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan 7 days, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months after the operation. The pancreas volume reduction rate was calculated by CT volumetry. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the postoperative development of DM. After PD, newly diagnosed DM occurred in 16 patients (24.2%). The incidence of DM was highest among patients with carcinomas with an advanced T stage. The pancreatic volume reduction rate after 6 and 12 months in the NODM group was significantly higher than the normal glucose group in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM (P = 0.002). This study suggests that the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM. CT volumetry of the pancreas may be useful as a predictor of NODM after PD. PMID:28353594

Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Soils and Sediments of India: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok

2017-10-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.

Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Soils and Sediments of India: A Meta-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok

2017-10-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.

Suicide, Satisfaction With Life, and Insight Capacity Among Adolescents With Mental Disorders.

PubMed

Schapir, Lior; Zalsman, Gil; Hasson-Ohayon, Ilanit; Gaziel, Meyrav; Morag-Yaffe, Mayad; Sever, Jonathan; Weizman, Abraham; Shoval, Gal

2016-09-01

Little is known about the role of insight and satisfaction with life in adolescent suicidal behavior. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between suicide risk, insight, and satisfaction with life among adolescents with mental disorders. A total of 30 adolescents were evaluated using self-report measures of insight, satisfaction with life, and suicide risk. Regression analysis was used to assess the contribution of each factor to suicide risk. Positive correlations were found between suicide risk and insight dimensions. Satisfaction with life correlated negatively with suicide risk and insight dimensions. Insight explained 27.3% of suicide risk (p = .003). Both insight and satisfaction with life explained 39.0% of suicide risk (p = .031). Among adolescents with mental disorders, insight is a risk factor, whereas satisfaction with life is a protective factor for suicidality. Insight affects suicide risk of adolescents with mental disorders via reduction of satisfaction with life.

Health Hazard Appraisal Counseling—Continuing Evaluation

PubMed Central

LaDou, Joseph; Sherwood, John N.; Hughes, Lewis

1979-01-01

A program of annual health examinations was expanded to include counseling based on a computerized appraisal of individual patients' specific health risk factors. Data obtained from a specially designed questionnaire, laboratory tests and a physical examination yielded a health hazard appraisal showing a number of weighted risk factors and their relation to ten leading causes of death as determined for that patient. From all of this information, a “risk age” was developed which could then be compared with the patient's “true age.” The results were reviewed with each patient, and methods of correcting health hazards were stressed. The first annual retesting of a group of 107 examinees showed a net risk age reduction of 1.4 years (formerly reported in this journal). The longer term follow-up reported in this paper showed a net risk reduction of 2.38 years in a group of 26 examinees. The net risk age reduction in the two groups represented 32 and 40 percent, respectively, of the achievable risk age reduction when patients comply with suggestions made during risk reduction counseling. These findings indicate that health hazard appraisal counseling is an effective method of altering priorities of health practices. PMID:425518

Physical activity and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Smith, Andrea D; Crippa, Alessio; Woodcock, James; Brage, Søren

2016-12-01

Inverse associations between physical activity (PA) and type 2 diabetes mellitus are well known. However, the shape of the dose-response relationship is still uncertain. This review synthesises results from longitudinal studies in general populations and uses non-linear models of the association between PA and incident type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search identified 28 prospective studies on leisure-time PA (LTPA) or total PA and risk of type 2 diabetes. PA exposures were converted into metabolic equivalent of task (MET) h/week and marginal MET (MMET) h/week, a measure only considering energy expended above resting metabolic rate. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the exposure-disease relationship. Our results suggest an overall non-linear relationship; using the cubic spline model we found a risk reduction of 26% (95% CI 20%, 31%) for type 2 diabetes among those who achieved 11.25 MET h/week (equivalent to 150 min/week of moderate activity) relative to inactive individuals. Achieving twice this amount of PA was associated with a risk reduction of 36% (95% CI 27%, 46%), with further reductions at higher doses (60 MET h/week, risk reduction of 53%). Results for the MMET h/week dose-response curve were similar for moderate intensity PA, but benefits were greater for higher intensity PA and smaller for lower intensity activity. Higher levels of LTPA were associated with substantially lower incidence of type 2 diabetes in the general population. The relationship between LTPA and type 2 diabetes was curvilinear; the greatest relative benefits are achieved at low levels of activity, but additional benefits can be realised at exposures considerably higher than those prescribed by public health recommendations.

Experts and Media: different agenda on the Amatrice seismic sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musacchio, G.; Piangiamore, G. L.

2016-12-01

In the frame of a dialogical approach to science communication, we challenge here the paradigm for which issues that experts consider valuable are not in the Media's agenda. We studied the way Media addressed the Amatrice 2016 sequence and discuss news story-telling. Data include news published since the beginning the seismic sequence, but only selected days have been analyzed in detail. Our analysis inquires IF and HOW the media pivot discussion between prevention and resignation. We quantify the occurrence of specific indicators in the text of in-print and in the headlines of on-line articles and derive a statistic distribution. We set indicators to explore WHO does the journalist refers to (the source), WHAT is considered to be newsworthiness and who is actually the journalist trying to give VOICE to. In assessing newsworthiness we break down the WHAT into three main categories, which we think of major interest to understand natural disasters icons in the Media, in the first days of occurrence. They are: Scientific Coverage, Risk Reduction Issues and Earthquake Damage. First results show that Media do think valuable to provide their public with an in-depth scientific coverage and refers to authoritative sources. As time goes by, and aftershocks Magnitude decreases, a more reflexive thinking is triggered; news stories include more risk reduction indicators than damage. Although memory of past earthquakes is always part of the story, only one month after the main shock risk reduction disappears from the media's agenda. We also explored the level of public engagement in risk reduction and found out that Media (in Italy) still seem not believe that citizens should be active part of the debate upon their own safety.

Relationship among food-safety knowledge, beliefs, and risk-reduction behavior in university students in Japan.

PubMed

Takeda, Sayaka; Akamatsu, Rie; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Marui, Eiji

2011-01-01

To identify whether university students who have both food-safety knowledge and beliefs perform risk-reduction behaviors. Cross-sectional research using a questionnaire that included food-safety knowledge, perceptions, risk-reduction behavior, stages for the selection of safer food based on the Transtheoretical Model, and demographic characteristics. Four universities in eastern Japan and 2 universities in western Japan. University students (n = 799). Food-safety knowledge, beliefs, and risk-reduction behaviors. Answers on measures assessing risk perception and food-safety knowledge were combined to form 4 groups of participants. Relationships among demographic characteristics, the 4 groups, risk-reduction behaviors, stage of change, and severity and susceptibility were assessed. The proportion of students who had more knowledge of food safety and a belief that "there are no 100% safe food items" was high in the group that frequently performed risk-reduction behaviors, as it was in the group who had taken a basic class about food or health care and who had, or were working toward, a food or nutrition qualification. University students who thought that there were no 100% safe food items and who had more knowledge about food safety were more likely to confirm food-safety information when selecting food. Copyright © 2011 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Themes in the literature related to cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

PubMed

Cohen, Shannon Munro; Kataoka-Yahiro, Merle

2009-01-01

This article aimed to identify themes in the literature related to patient-healthcare provider beliefs, barriers to adherence, and interventions pertaining to cardiovascular disease risk reduction. Twenty quantitative and qualitative primary research studies including 2 meta-analyses published between 1995 and 2008 were analyzed for themes and practice implications to synthesize existing research on cardiovascular disease risk reduction. Databases searched included EBSCO, CINAHL, MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, HealthSource, and PsychLit using the search terms patient- provider adherence, adherence and shared decision making, adherence and decision support, patient- provider goal setting, and cardiovascular disease risk reduction. The emergent themes found in this literature review included (1) complex medication regimens; (2) risk perception, quality of life, and competing priorities; (3) motivation for change; (4) provider clinical inertia; and (5) goal setting, feedback, and reminders. Studies reporting the highest rates of adherence to cardiovascular disease risk reduction recommendations incorporated patient-provider goal setting and decision support, self-management techniques, and personalized printed communication. Goal setting in cardiovascular disease risk reduction is a relatively unexplored area and is an important component of shared decision making and adherence to cardiovascular disease health recommendations. The following review will address the 5 themes identified in more detail and provide a basis for improved clinical practice.

Autonomic nervous system dysfunction in psychiatric disorders and the impact of psychotropic medications: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Alvares, Gail A.; Quintana, Daniel S.; Hickie, Ian B.; Guastella, Adam J.

2016-01-01

Background Autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction is a putative underlying mechanism for increased cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with psychiatric disorders. Previous studies suggest that this risk may be related to psychotropic medication use. In the present study we systematically reviewed and analyzed published studies of heart rate variability (HRV), measuring ANS output, to determine the effect of psychiatric illness and medication use. Methods We searched for studies comparing HRV in physically healthy adults with a diagnosed psychiatric disorder to controls and comparing HRV pre- and post-treatment with a psychotropic medication. Results In total, 140 case–control (mood, anxiety, psychosis, dependent disorders, k = 151) and 30 treatment (antidepressants, antipsychotics; k = 43) studies were included. We found that HRV was reduced in all patient groups compared to controls (Hedges g = −0.583) with a large effect for psychotic disorders (Hedges g = −0.948). Effect sizes remained highly significant for medication-free patients compared to controls across all disorders. Smaller and significant reductions in HRV were observed for specific antidepressants and antipsychotics. Limitations Study quality significantly moderated effect sizes in case–control analyses, underscoring the importance of assessing methodological quality when interpreting HRV findings. Conclusion Combined findings confirm substantial reductions in HRV across psychiatric disorders, and these effects remained significant even in medication-free individuals. Reductions in HRV may therefore represent a significant mechanism contributing to elevated cardiovascular risk in individuals with psychiatric disorders. The negative impact of specific medications on HRV suggest increased risk for cardiovascular disease in these groups, highlighting a need for treatment providers to consider modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to attenuate this risk. PMID:26447819

Effects of Low-Carbohydrate Diets Versus Low-Fat Diets on Metabolic Risk Factors: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Hu, Tian; Mills, Katherine T.; Yao, Lu; Demanelis, Kathryn; Eloustaz, Mohamed; Yancy, William S.; Kelly, Tanika N.; He, Jiang; Bazzano, Lydia A.

2012-01-01

The effects of low-carbohydrate diets (≤45% of energy from carbohydrates) versus low-fat diets (≤30% of energy from fat) on metabolic risk factors were compared in a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Twenty-three trials from multiple countries with a total of 2,788 participants met the predetermined eligibility criteria (from January 1, 1966 to June 20, 2011) and were included in the analyses. Data abstraction was conducted in duplicate by independent investigators. Both low-carbohydrate and low-fat diets lowered weight and improved metabolic risk factors. Compared with participants on low-fat diets, persons on low-carbohydrate diets experienced a slightly but statistically significantly lower reduction in total cholesterol (2.7 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: 0.8, 4.6), and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.7 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: 1.0, 6.4), but a greater increase in high density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.3 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: 1.9, 4.7) and a greater decrease in triglycerides (−14.0 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: −19.4, −8.7). Reductions in body weight, waist circumference and other metabolic risk factors were not significantly different between the 2 diets. These findings suggest that low-carbohydrate diets are at least as effective as low-fat diets at reducing weight and improving metabolic risk factors. Low-carbohydrate diets could be recommended to obese persons with abnormal metabolic risk factors for the purpose of weight loss. Studies demonstrating long-term effects of low-carbohydrate diets on cardiovascular events were warranted. PMID:23035144

Leisure-time physical activity and incident metabolic syndrome: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies.

PubMed

Zhang, Dongdong; Liu, Xuejiao; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Wang, Bingyuan; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Yin, Lei; Zhao, Jingzhi; Shi, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Ming; Hu, Dongsheng

2017-10-01

Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) has been suggested to reduce risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, a quantitative comprehensive assessment of the dose-response association between LTPA and incident MetS has not been reported. We performed a meta-analysis of studies assessing the risk of MetS with LTPA. MEDLINE via PubMed and EMBase databases were searched for relevant articles published up to March 13, 2017. Random-effects models were used to estimate the summary relative risk (RR) of MetS with LTPA. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response association. We identified 16 articles (18 studies including 76,699 participants and 13,871 cases of MetS). We found a negative linear association between LTPA and incident MetS, with a reduction of 8% in MetS risk per 10 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) h/week increment. According to the restricted cubic splines model, risk of MetS was reduced 10% with LTPA performed according to the basic guideline-recommended level of 150min of moderate PA (MPA) per week (10METh/week) versus inactivity (RR=0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.94). It was reduced 20% and 53% with LTPA at twice (20METh/week) and seven times (70METh/week) the basic recommended level (RR=0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.88 and 0.47, 95% CI 0.34-0.64, respectively). Our findings provide quantitative data suggesting that any amount of LTPA is better than none and that LTPA substantially exceeding the current LTPA guidelines is associated with an additional reduction in MetS risk. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

Methodology for safety optimization of highway cross-sections for horizontal curves with restricted sight distance.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Shewkar E; Sayed, Tarek; Ismail, Karim

2012-11-01

Several earlier studies have noted the shortcomings with existing geometric design guides which provide deterministic standards. In these standards the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from the standards. To mitigate these shortcomings, probabilistic geometric design has been advocated where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a mechanism for risk measurement to evaluate the safety impact of deviations from design standards. This paper applies reliability analysis for optimizing the safety of highway cross-sections. The paper presents an original methodology to select a suitable combination of cross-section elements with restricted sight distance to result in reduced collisions and consistent risk levels. The purpose of this optimization method is to provide designers with a proactive approach to the design of cross-section elements in order to (i) minimize the risk associated with restricted sight distance, (ii) balance the risk across the two carriageways of the highway, and (iii) reduce the expected collision frequency. A case study involving nine cross-sections that are parts of two major highway developments in British Columbia, Canada, was presented. The results showed that an additional reduction in collisions can be realized by incorporating the reliability component, P(nc) (denoting the probability of non-compliance), in the optimization process. The proposed approach results in reduced and consistent risk levels for both travel directions in addition to further collision reductions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perioperative supplemental oxygen therapy and surgical site infection: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Qadan, Motaz; Akça, Ozan; Mahid, Suhal S; Hornung, Carlton A; Polk, Hiram C

2009-04-01

To conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials in which high inspired oxygen concentrations were compared with standard concentrations to assess the effect on the development of surgical site infections (SSIs). A systematic literature search was conducted using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases and included a manual search of references of original articles, poster presentations, and abstracts from major meetings ("gray" literature). Twenty-one of 2167 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 5 randomized controlled trials (3001 patients) assessed the effect of perioperative supplemental oxygen use on the SSI rate. Studies used a treatment-inspired oxygen concentration of 80%. Maximum follow-up was 30 days. Data were abstracted by 3 independent reviewers using a standardized data collection form. Relative risks were reported using a fixed-effects model. Results were subjected to publication bias testing and sensitivity analyses. Infection rates were 12.0% in the control group and 9.0% in the hyperoxic group, with relative risk reduction of 25.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.1%-40.1%) and absolute risk reduction of 3.0% (1.1%-5.3%). The overall risk ratio was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.599-0.919; P = .006). The benefit from increasing oxygen concentration was greater in colorectal-specific procedures, with a risk ratio of 0.556 (95% CI, 0.383-0.808; P = .002). Perioperative supplemental oxygen therapy exerts a significant beneficial effect in the prevention of SSIs. We recommend its use along with maintenance of normothermia, meticulous glycemic control, and preservation of intravascular volume perioperatively in the prevention of SSIs.

Estimating the Effect of Targeted Screening Strategies: An Application to Colonoscopy and Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Thomas, Duncan C

2017-07-01

Screening behavior depends on previous screening history and family members' behaviors, which can act as both confounders and intermediate variables on a causal pathway from screening to disease risk. Conventional analyses that adjust for these variables can lead to incorrect inferences about the causal effect of screening if high-risk individuals are more likely to be screened. Analyzing the data in a manner that treats screening as randomized conditional on covariates allows causal parameters to be estimated; inverse probability weighting based on propensity of exposure scores is one such method considered here. I simulated family data under plausible models for the underlying disease process and for screening behavior to assess the performance of alternative methods of analysis and whether a targeted screening approach based on individuals' risk factors would lead to a greater reduction in cancer incidence in the population than a uniform screening policy. Simulation results indicate that there can be a substantial underestimation of the effect of screening on subsequent cancer risk when using conventional analysis approaches, which is avoided by using inverse probability weighting. A large case-control study of colonoscopy and colorectal cancer from Germany shows a strong protective effect of screening, but inverse probability weighting makes this effect even stronger. Targeted screening approaches based on either fixed risk factors or family history yield somewhat greater reductions in cancer incidence with fewer screens needed to prevent one cancer than population-wide approaches, but the differences may not be large enough to justify the additional effort required. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B207.

Cancer complicating systemic lupus erythematosus--a dichotomy emerging from a nested case-control study.

PubMed

Dey, D; Kenu, E; Isenberg, D A

2013-08-01

We determined whether any individual cancers are increased or decreased in a cohort of 595 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) followed for up to 32 years at the University College London Hospitals Lupus Clinic, looking for any associated clinical or serological factors and the prognosis after cancer diagnosis. We undertook a careful retrospective review of the medical records and identified all individuals diagnosed with cancer. For controls, we selected three other patients in the cohort who had not developed cancer, carefully matched for age, sex, ethnicity and disease duration, to determine if any obvious differences emerged in a nested case-control design. Thirty-three patients developed cancer after being diagnosed with SLE. There was a statistically insignificant small increase in overall cancer risk, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) 1.05 (95% CI 0.52-1.58) and increased SIRs for cervical, prostate, anal and pancreatic cancers and reduction in breast cancer SIRs. Haematological and musculoskeletal manifestations, anticardiolipin and antithyroid globulin antibodies were found to be positively associated with cancer risk in multivariate analysis. There was no drug, dose or duration was associated with cancer risk. There was a reduction in survival with a cancer fatality rate of 84.2% (p < 0.0001). We found a very small but statistically insignificant increased cancer risk with reduction in survival. Whereas some cancers appear to be more common in SLE, notably prostate and cervical cancer, others, particularly breast cancer, are less frequent. Multiple clinical and serological factors are involved in the increased risk of malignancy in SLE. No drug dose or duration effect was identified.

Spironolactone Add-on for Preventing or Slowing the Progression of Diabetic Nephropathy: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hou, Jing; Xiong, Weiquan; Cao, Ling; Wen, Xiangqiong; Li, Ailing

2015-09-01

The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the benefits and potential adverse effects of adding spironolactone to standard antidiabetic/renoprotective/antihypertensive (AD/RP/AHT) treatment in patients with diabetic nephropathy (DN). PubMed/MEDLINE and Web of Knowledge were searched for relevant randomized, controlled studies (RCTs) or quasi-RCTs of the effects of adding spironolactone to standard AD/RP/AHT treatment in patients with DN. Results were summarized with a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model. According to the outcomes measured (benefits and risks of adding spironolactone to standard AD/RP/AHT treatment), compared with controls, the addition of spironolactone significantly decreased end-of-treatment (EOT) 24-hour urinary albumin/protein excretion and significantly increased percentage reduction from baseline in urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), although it did not significantly affect EOT UACR. The addition of spironolactone further led to a significantly greater reduction from baseline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR)/estimated (e) GFR, although it did not significantly affect EOT GFR/eGFR. Further, the addition of spironolactone significantly reduced EOT in-office, 24-hour, and daytime systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively) and led to significantly greater reductions from baseline in in-office SBP and DBP, although it did not significantly affect nighttime SBP or DBP. Finally, the addition of spironolactone significantly increased mean serum/plasma potassium levels and the risk for hyperkalemia. Spironolactone could be added to preexisting AD/RP/AHT therapy in patients with DN to prevent or slow DN progression by reducing proteinuria. The addition of spironolactone would likely provide even more beneficial effect in patients with DN and hypertension due to the BP reduction associated with spironolactone use. However, the beneficial effects of spironolactone add-on should be weighed against its potential risks, especially hyperkalemia. The long-term effects of spironolactone add-on on renal outcomes and mortality need to be studied. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

Routine brief risk-reduction counseling with biannual STD testing reduces STD incidence among HIV-infected men who have sex with men in care.

PubMed

Patel, Pragna; Bush, Tim; Mayer, Kenneth; Milam, Joel; Richardson, Jean; Hammer, John; Henry, Keith; Overton, Turner; Conley, Lois; Marks, Gary; Brooks, John T

2012-06-01

We evaluated whether routine biannual sexually transmitted disease (STD) testing coupled with brief risk-reduction counseling reduces STD incidence and high-risk behaviors. The SUN study is a prospective observational HIV cohort study conducted in 4 US cities. At enrollment and every 6 months thereafter, participants completed a behavioral survey and were screened for STDs, and if diagnosed, were treated. Medical providers conducted brief risk-reduction counseling with all patients. Among men who have sex with men (MSM), we examined trends in STD incidence and rates of self-reported risk behaviors before and after exposure to the risk-reduction intervention. The "preintervention" visit was the study visit that was at least 6 months after enrollment STD screening and treatment and at which the participant was first exposed to the intervention. The "postintervention" visit was 12 months later. Among 216 MSM with complete STD and behavioral data, median age was 44.5 years; 77% were non-Hispanic white; 83% were on highly active antiretroviral treatment; 84% had an HIV RNA level <400 copies/mL and the median CD4 (cluster of differentiation 4) count was 511 cells/mm. Twelve months after first exposure to the risk-reduction intervention, STD incidence declined from 8.8% to 4.2% (P = 0.041). Rates of unprotected receptive or insertive anal intercourse with HIV-positive partners increased (19% to 25%, P = 0.024), but did not change with HIV-negative partners or partners of unknown HIV status (24% to 22%, P = 0.590). STD incidence declined significantly among HIV-infected MSM after implementing frequent, routine STD testing coupled with risk-reduction counseling. These findings support adoption of routine STD screening and risk-reduction counseling for HIV-infected MSM.

A meta-analysis of platelet gel for prevention of sternal wound infections following cardiac surgery

PubMed Central

Kirmani, Bilal H.; Jones, Siôn G.; Datta, Subir; McLaughlin, Edward K.; Hoschtitzky, Andreas J.

2017-01-01

Deep sternal wound infection and bleeding are devastating complications following cardiac surgery, which may be reduced by topical application of autologous platelet gel. Systematic review identified seven comparative studies involving 4,692 patients. Meta-analysis showed significant reductions in all sternal wound infections (odds ratio 3.48 [1.08–11.23], p=0.04) and mediastinitis (odds ratio 2.69 [1.20–6.06], p=0.02) but not bleeding. No adverse events relating to the use of topical platelet-rich plasma were reported. The use of autologous platelet gel in cardiac surgery appears to provide significant reductions in serious sternal wound infections, and its use is unlikely to be associated with significant risk. PMID:27177403

Multi-Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry (M-SAPE) Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samareh, Jamshid; Glaab, Louis; Winski, Richard G.; Maddock, Robert W.; Emmett, Anjie L.; Munk, Michelle M.; Agrawal, Parul; Sepka, Steve; Aliaga, Jose; Zarchi, Kerry;

Effectiveness of a School- and Community-based Academic Asthma Health Education Program on Use of Effective Asthma Self-care Behaviors in Older School-age Students

PubMed Central

Kintner, Eileen K.; Cook, Gwendolyn; Marti, C. Nathan; Allen, April; Stoddard, Debbie; Harmon, Phyllis; Gomes, Melissa; Meeder, Linda; Van Egeren, Laurie A.

2014-01-01

Purpose The purpose was to evaluate the effectiveness of SHARP, an academic asthma health education and counseling program, on fostering use of effective asthma self-care behaviors. Design and Methods This was a phase III, two-group, cluster randomized, single-blinded, longitudinal design guided the study. Caregivers of 205 fourth- and fifth-grade students completed the asthma health behaviors survey at pre-intervention and 1, 12, and 24 months post-intervention. Analysis involved multilevel modeling. Results All students demonstrated improvement in episode management, risk-reduction/prevention, and health promotion behaviors; SHARP students demonstrated increased improvement in episode management and risk-reduction/prevention behaviors. Practice Implications Working with schoolteachers, nurses can improve use of effective asthma self-care behaviors. PMID:25443867

Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Monica; Bassler, Julie; Morse, Brian

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the status of the development of a robotic lunar lander. The goal of the project is to perform engineering tests and risk reduction activities to support the development of a small lunar lander for lunar surface science. This includes: (1) risk reduction for the flight of the robotic lander, (i.e., testing and analyzing various phase of the project); (2) the incremental development for the design of the robotic lander, which is to demonstrate autonomous, controlled descent and landing on airless bodies, and design of thruster configuration for 1/6th of the gravity of earth; (3) cold gas test article in flight demonstration testing; (4) warm gas testing of the robotic lander design; (5) develop and test landing algorithms; (6) validate the algorithms through analysis and test; and (7) tests of the flight propulsion system.

Is Escitalopram Really Relevantly Superior to Citalopram in Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder? A Meta-analysis of Head-to-head Randomized Trials

PubMed Central

Trkulja, Vladimir

2010-01-01

Aim To evaluate clinical relevance of differences between escitalopram and citalopram (equimolar) for major depressive disorder. Methods Review and meta-analysis of comparative randomized controlled trials (RCT). Comparisons were in relation to Montgomery-Asberg depression rating scale (MADRS) score reduction at weeks 1 (5 RCTs), 4 (5 RCTs), 6 (4 RCTs), 8 (5 RCTs), and 24 (1 RCT); proportion of responders at weeks 2, 4, 6 (2 RCTs for each time point), 8 (5 RCTs), and 24 (1 RCT); clinical global impression-severity (CGI-S) reduction at weeks 6 (1 RCT), 8 (5 RCTs), and 24 (1 RCT), and discontinuation due to adverse events or inefficacy during short-term (up to 8 weeks) and medium-term (24 weeks) treatment. Results MADRS reduction was greater with escitalopram, but 95% confidence intervals (CI) around the mean difference were entirely or largely below 2 scale points (minimally important difference) and CI around the effect size (ES) was below 0.32 (“small”) at all time points. Risk of response was higher with escitalopram at week 8 (relative risk, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.26) but number needed to treat was 14 (95% CI, 7 to 111). All 95% CIs around the mean difference and ES of CGI-S reduction at week 8 were below 0.32 points and the limit of “small,” respectively. Data for severe patients (MADRS≥30) are scarce (only 1 RCT), indicating somewhat greater efficacy (response rate and MADRS reduction at week 8, but not CGI-S reduction) of escitalopram, but without compelling evidence of clinically relevant differences. Discontinuations due to adverse events or inefficacy up to 8 weeks of treatment were comparable. Data for the period up to 24 weeks are scarce and inconclusive. Conclusion Presently, the claims about clinically relevant superiority of escitalopram over citalopram in short-to-medium term treatment of major depressive disorder are not supported by evidence. PMID:20162747

Is escitalopram really relevantly superior to citalopram in treatment of major depressive disorder? A meta-analysis of head-to-head randomized trials.

PubMed

Trkulja, Vladimir

2010-02-01

To evaluate clinical relevance of differences between escitalopram and citalopram (equimolar) for major depressive disorder. Review and meta-analysis of comparative randomized controlled trials (RCT). Comparisons were in relation to Montgomery-Asberg depression rating scale (MADRS) score reduction at weeks 1 (5 RCTs), 4 (5 RCTs), 6 (4 RCTs), 8 (5 RCTs), and 24 (1 RCT); proportion of responders at weeks 2, 4, 6 (2 RCTs for each time point), 8 (5 RCTs), and 24 (1 RCT); clinical global impression-severity (CGI-S) reduction at weeks 6 (1 RCT), 8 (5 RCTs), and 24 (1 RCT), and discontinuation due to adverse events or inefficacy during short-term (up to 8 weeks) and medium-term (24 weeks) treatment. MADRS reduction was greater with escitalopram, but 95% confidence intervals (CI) around the mean difference were entirely or largely below 2 scale points (minimally important difference) and CI around the effect size (ES) was below 0.32 ("small") at all time points. Risk of response was higher with escitalopram at week 8 (relative risk, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.26) but number needed to treat was 14 (95% CI, 7 to 111). All 95% CIs around the mean difference and ES of CGI-S reduction at week 8 were below 0.32 points and the limit of "small," respectively. Data for severe patients (MADRS> or =30) are scarce (only 1 RCT), indicating somewhat greater efficacy (response rate and MADRS reduction at week 8, but not CGI-S reduction) of escitalopram, but without compelling evidence of clinically relevant differences. Discontinuations due to adverse events or inefficacy up to 8 weeks of treatment were comparable. Data for the period up to 24 weeks are scarce and inconclusive. Presently, the claims about clinically relevant superiority of escitalopram over citalopram in short-to-medium term treatment of major depressive disorder are not supported by evidence.

Genetic Risk, Coronary Heart Disease Events, and the Clinical Benefit of Statin Therapy

PubMed Central

Smith, JG; Chasman, DI; Caulfield, M; Devlin, JJ; Nordio, F; Hyde, C; Cannon, CP; Sacks, F; Poulter, N; Sever, P; Ridker, PM; Braunwald, E; Melander, O

2015-01-01

Background Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We tested whether a composite of these variants could identify the risk of both incident as well as recurrent CHD events and distinguish individuals who derived greater clinical benefit from statin therapy. Methods A community-based cohort and four randomized controlled trials of both primary (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) prevention with statin therapy totaling 48,421 individuals and 3,477 events were included in these analyses. We examined the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent CHD, adjusting for established clinical predictors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in CHD events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. Data from studies were combined using meta-analysis. Findings When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient of risk for incident or recurrent CHD was demonstrated with the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for CHD for the intermediate and high genetic risk categories vs. low genetic risk category being 1.32 (1.20-1.46, P<0.0001) and 1.71 (1.54-1.91, P<0.0001), respectively. In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomized trials, there was a significant gradient of increasing relative risk reduction across the low, intermediate, and high genetic risk categories (13%, 29%, and 48%, P=0.0277). Similarly, greater absolute risk reductions were seen in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (P=0.0101), resulting in an approximate three-fold gradient in the number needed to treat (NNT) in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the NNT to prevent one MACE over 10 years for the low, intermediate, and high GRS individuals was 66, 42, and 25 in JUPITER and 57, 47, and 20 in ASCOT. Interpretation A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent CHD events. Individuals with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit with statin therapy. PMID:25748612

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Program: Issues and Results of Upscreening COTS Parts for NASA Flight Hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandor, Mike; Agarwal, Shri; Villegas, Enrique

2000-01-01

This paper presents The Commercial Off-The-Shelf Program (COTS). The topics of discussion are: 1) Introduction of COTS; 2) MARS01 Program/Requirements; 3) MARS01 COTS Screening Flow; 4) Test Results-Electrical, C-Sam, Burn-In; 5) Value Added Analysis (Risk Reduction); 6) Value Added Analysis (Cost); 7) Impact of COTS ++ Screening; and 8) Summary. This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

Commercial Supersonics Technology Project - Status of Airport Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James

2016-01-01

The Commercial Supersonic Technology Project has been developing databases, computational tools, and system models to prepare for a level 1 milestone, the Low Noise Propulsion Tech Challenge, to be delivered Sept 2016. Steps taken to prepare for the final validation test are given, including system analysis, code validation, and risk reduction testing.

Reduction of Risk in Exploration and Prospect Generation through a Multidisciplinary Basin-Analysis Program in the South-Central Mid-Continent Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banerjee, S.; Barker, C.; Fite, J.

1999-04-02

This report will discuss a series of regional studies that were undertaken within the South-Central Mid-Continent region of the U.S. Coverage is also provided about a series of innovative techniques that were used for this assessment.

School-Based Violence Prevention Programs: Systematic Review of Secondary Prevention Trials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mytton, Julie A.; DiGuiseppi, Carolyn; Gough, David A.; Taylor, Rod S.; Logan, Stuart

2002-01-01

Conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled secondary prevention trials to explore the effects of school-based violence prevention programs on aggressive and violent behavior in children at high risk for violence. Results indicated that such programs produced modest reductions in aggressive and violent behaviors in…

The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

PubMed Central

Munsaka, Edson

2018-01-01

This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

Case management reduces global vascular risk after stroke: secondary results from the The preventing recurrent vascular events and neurological worsening through intensive organized case-management randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

McAlister, Finlay A; Grover, Steven; Padwal, Raj S; Youngson, Erik; Fradette, Miriam; Thompson, Ann; Buck, Brian; Dean, Naeem; Tsuyuki, Ross T; Shuaib, Ashfaq; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-12-01

Survivors of ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high risk for other vascular events. We evaluated the impact of 2 types of case management (hard touch with pharmacist or soft touch with nurse) added to usual care on global vascular risk. This is a prespecified secondary analysis of a 6-month trial conducted in outpatients with recent stroke/TIA who received usual care and were randomized to additional monthly visits with either nurse case managers (who counseled patients, monitored risk factors, and communicated results to primary care physicians) or pharmacist case managers (who were also able to independently prescribe according to treatment algorithms). The Framingham Risk Score [FRS]) and the Cardiovascular Disease Life Expectancy Model (CDLEM) were used to estimate 10-year risk of any vascular event at baseline, 6 months (trial conclusion), and 12 months (6 months after last trial visit). Mean age of the 275 evaluable patients was 67.6 years. Both study arms were well balanced at baseline and exhibited reductions in absolute global vascular risk estimates at 6 months: median 4.8% (Interquartile range (IQR) 0.3%-11.3%) for the pharmacist arm versus 5.1% (IQR 1.9%-12.5%) for the nurse arm on the FRS (P = .44 between arms) and median 10.0% (0.1%-31.6%) versus 12.5% (2.1%-30.5%) on the CDLEM (P = .37). These reductions persisted at 12 months: median 6.4% (1.2%-11.6%) versus 5.5% (2.0%-12.0%) for the FRS (P = .83) and median 8.4% (0.1%-28.3%) versus 13.1% (1.6%-31.6%) on the CDLEM (P = .20). Case management by nonphysician providers is associated with improved global vascular risk in patients with recent stroke/TIA. Reductions achieved during the active phase of the trial persisted after trial conclusion. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[BIOLOGICAL EFFECTIVENESS OF FISSION SPECTRUM NEUTRONS AND PROTONS WITH ENERGIES OF 60-126 MEV DURING ACUTE AND PROLONGED IRRADIATION].

PubMed

Shafirkin, A V

2015-01-01

Neutrons of the fission spectrum are characterized by relatively high values of linear energy transfer (LET). Data about their effects on biological objects are used to evaluate the risk of delayed effects of accelerated ions within the same LET range that serve as an experimental model of the nuclei component of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Additionally, risks of delayed consequences to cosmonaut's health and average lifetime from certain GCR fluxes and secondary neutrons can be also prognosticated. The article deals with comparative analysis of the literature on reduction of average lifespan (ALS) of animals exposed to neutron reactor spectrum, 60-126 MeV protons, and X- and γ-rays in a broad range of radiation intensity and duration. It was shown that a minimal lifespan reduction by 5% occurs due to a brief exposure to neutrons with the absorbed dose of 5 cGy, whereas same lifespan reduction due to hard X- and γ-radiation occurs after absorption of a minimal dose of 100 cGy. Therefore, according to the estimated minimal ALS reduction in mice, neutron effectiveness is 20-fold higher. Biological effectiveness of protons as regards ALS reduction is virtually equal to that of standard types of radiation. Exposure to X- and γ-radiation with decreasing daily doses, and increasing number of fractions and duration gives rise to an apparent trend toward a less dramatic ALS reduction in mice; on the contrary, exposure to neutrons of varying duration had no effect on threshold doses for the specified ALS reductions. Factors of relative biological effectiveness of neutrons reached 40.

A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015-2030

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beiter, Philipp; Stehly, Tyler

The potential for cost reduction and economic viability for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis models the cost impact of a range of offshore wind locational cost variables across more than 7,000 potential coastal sites in the United States' offshore wind resource area. It also assesses the impact of over 50 technology innovations on potential future costs between 2015 and 2027 (Commercial Operation Date) for both fixed-bottom and floating wind systems. Comparing these costs to an initial assessment of local avoided generating costs, this analysis provides a framework for estimating the economic potential for offshore wind.more » Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The findings from the original report indicate that under the modeled scenario, offshore wind can be expected to achieve significant cost reductions and may approach economic viability in some parts of the United States within the next 15 years.« less

Immunosuppressant dose reduction and long-term rejection risk in renal transplant recipients with severe bacterial pneumonia.

PubMed

Shih, Chia-Jen; Tarng, Der-Cherng; Yang, Wu-Chang; Yang, Chih-Yu

2014-07-01

Due to lifelong immunosuppression, renal transplant recipients (RTRs) are at risk of infectious complications such as pneumonia. Severe pneumonia results in respiratory failure and is life‑threatening. We aimed to examine the influence of immunosuppressant dose reduction on RTRs with bacterial pneumonia and respiratory failure. From January 2001 to January 2011, 33 of 1,146 RTRs at a single centre developed bacterial pneumonia with respiratory failure. All patients were treated using mechanical ventilation and aggressive therapies in the intensive care unit. Average time from kidney transplantation to pneumonia with respiratory failure was 6.8 years. In-hospital mortality rate was 45.5% despite intensive care and aggressive therapies. Logistic regression analysis indicated that a high serum creatinine level at the time of admission to the intensive care unit (odds ratio 1.77 per mg/dL, 95% confidence interval 1.01-3.09; p = 0.045) was a mortality determinant. Out of the 33 patients, immunosuppressive agents were reduced in 17 (51.5%). We found that although immunosuppressant dose reduction tended to improve in-hospital mortality, this was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, during a mean follow-up period of two years, none of the survivors (n = 18) developed acute rejection or allograft necrosis. In RTRs with bacterial pneumonia and respiratory failure, higher serum creatinine levels were a mortality determinant. Although temporary immunosuppressant dose reduction might not reduce mortality, it was associated with a minimal risk of acute rejection during the two-year follow-up. Our results suggest that early immunosuppressant reduction in RTRs with severe pneumonia of indeterminate microbiology may be safe even when pathogens are bacterial in nature.

Blood Pressure-Attained Analysis of ATACH 2 Trial.

PubMed

Qureshi, Adnan I; Palesch, Yuko Y; Foster, Lydia D; Barsan, William G; Goldstein, Joshua N; Hanley, Daniel F; Hsu, Chung Y; Moy, Claudia S; Qureshi, Mushtaq H; Silbergleit, Robert; Suarez, Jose I; Toyoda, Kazunori; Yamamoto, Haruko

2018-06-01

We compared the rates of death or disability, defined by modified Rankin Scale score of 4 to 6, at 3 months in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage according to post-treatment systolic blood pressure (SBP)-attained status. We divided 1000 subjects with SBP ≥180 mm Hg who were randomized within 4.5 hours of symptom onset as follows: SBP <140 mm Hg achieved or not achieved within 2 hours; subjects in whom SBP <140 mm Hg was achieved within 2 hours were further divided: SBP <140 mm Hg for 21 to 22 hours (reduced and maintained) or SBP was ≥140 mm Hg for at least 2 hours during the period between 2 and 24 hours (reduced but not maintained). Compared with subjects without reduction of SBP <140 mm Hg within 2 hours, subjects with reduction and maintenance of SBP <140 mm Hg within 2 hours had a similar rate of death or disability (relative risk of 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.29). The rates of neurological deterioration within 24 hours were significantly higher in reduced and maintained group (10.4%; relative risk, 1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-3.62) and in reduced but not maintained group (11.5%; relative risk, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-3.75) compared with reference group. The rates of cardiac-related adverse events within 7 days were higher among subjects with reduction and maintenance of SBP <140 mmHg compared to subjects without reduction (11.2% versus 6.4%). No decline in death or disability but higher rates of neurological deterioration and cardiac-related adverse events were observed among intracerebral hemorrhage subjects with reduction with and without maintenance of intensive SBP goals. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01176565. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

PubMed

Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

2016-10-01

Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

Reduction in incidence of Johne's disease associated with implementation of a disease control program in Minnesota demonstration herds.

PubMed

Espejo, L A; Godden, S; Hartmann, W L; Wells, S J

2012-07-01

This prospective longitudinal observational study was conducted to evaluate the effect of a standardized control program on the incidence of Johne's disease in 8 dairy herds in Minnesota. Depending on recruitment year, herds were followed for between 5 and 10 yr. Program compliance was evaluated using a cohort risk assessment score by birth cohort. Fecal samples from cows in study herds were tested annually using bacterial culture to detect Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), and serum samples from study cows were tested using an ELISA to detect antibodies to MAP. Clinical Johne's disease was also recorded. Cohort risk assessment score decreased along birth cohorts. Depending on the follow-up period in each herd, 5 to 8 birth cohorts were followed to describe changes in time to MAP bacterial culture positivity, serum ELISA positivity, MAP heavy shedding status, and clinical Johne's disease. The analysis of time to bacterial culture positivity, serum ELISA positivity, heavy fecal shedding status, and clinical Johne's disease using a time-dependent Cox regression indicated a reduction of the instantaneous hazard ratio by birth cohorts and by cohort risk score; however, the strength of association between the cohort risk score and each of the 4 disease outcomes decreased over time. The age at which the cows first tested positive for bacterial culture, serum ELISA, and heavy fecal shedding, and the age of the cows at onset of clinical Johne's disease signs remained constant for all birth cohorts. Based on herd risk scores, overall herds complied with the recommended management practices in the program. Results were consistent with a within-herd reduction of Johne's disease transmission, and that reduction was associated with herd-level management practices implemented as part of the control program. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Computational Linguistic Measure of Clustering Behavior on Semantic Verbal Fluency Task Predicts Risk of Future Dementia in the Nun Study

PubMed Central

Pakhomov, Serguei V.S.; Hemmy, Laura S.

2014-01-01

Generative semantic verbal fluency (SVF) tests show early and disproportionate decline relative to other abilities in individuals developing Alzheimer’s disease. Optimal performance on SVF tests depends on the efficiency of using clustered organization of semantically related items and the ability to switch between clusters. Traditional approaches to clustering and switching have relied on manual determination of clusters. We evaluated a novel automated computational linguistic approach for quantifying clustering behavior. Our approach is based on Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) for computing strength of semantic relatedness between pairs of words produced in response to SVF test. The mean size of semantic clusters (MCS) and semantic chains (MChS) are calculated based on pairwise relatedness values between words. We evaluated the predictive validity of these measures on a set of 239 participants in the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging. All were cognitively intact at baseline assessment, measured with the CERAD battery, and were followed in 18 month waves for up to 20 years. The onset of either dementia or memory impairment were used as outcomes in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and education and censored at follow up waves 5 (6.3 years) and 13 (16.96 years). Higher MCS was associated with 38% reduction in dementia risk at wave 5 and 26% reduction at wave 13, but not with the onset of memory impairment. Higher (+1 SD) MChS was associated with 39% dementia risk reduction at wave 5 but not wave 13, and association with memory impairment was not significant. Higher traditional SVF scores were associated with 22–29% memory impairment and 35–40% dementia risk reduction. SVF scores were not correlated with either MCS or MChS. Our study suggests that an automated approach to measuring clustering behavior can be used to estimate dementia risk in cognitively normal individuals. PMID:23845236

A computational linguistic measure of clustering behavior on semantic verbal fluency task predicts risk of future dementia in the nun study.

PubMed

Pakhomov, Serguei V S; Hemmy, Laura S

2014-06-01

Generative semantic verbal fluency (SVF) tests show early and disproportionate decline relative to other abilities in individuals developing Alzheimer's disease. Optimal performance on SVF tests depends on the efficiency of using clustered organization of semantically related items and the ability to switch between clusters. Traditional approaches to clustering and switching have relied on manual determination of clusters. We evaluated a novel automated computational linguistic approach for quantifying clustering behavior. Our approach is based on Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) for computing strength of semantic relatedness between pairs of words produced in response to SVF test. The mean size of semantic clusters (MCS) and semantic chains (MChS) are calculated based on pairwise relatedness values between words. We evaluated the predictive validity of these measures on a set of 239 participants in the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging. All were cognitively intact at baseline assessment, measured with the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) battery, and were followed in 18-month waves for up to 20 years. The onset of either dementia or memory impairment were used as outcomes in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and education and censored at follow-up waves 5 (6.3 years) and 13 (16.96 years). Higher MCS was associated with 38% reduction in dementia risk at wave 5 and 26% reduction at wave 13, but not with the onset of memory impairment. Higher [+1 standard deviation (SD)] MChS was associated with 39% dementia risk reduction at wave 5 but not wave 13, and association with memory impairment was not significant. Higher traditional SVF scores were associated with 22-29% memory impairment and 35-40% dementia risk reduction. SVF scores were not correlated with either MCS or MChS. Our study suggests that an automated approach to measuring clustering behavior can be used to estimate dementia risk in cognitively normal individuals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hazardous alcohol use and receipt of risk-reduction counseling among U.S. veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

PubMed

Calhoun, Patrick S; Elter, John R; Jones, Everett R; Kudler, Harold; Straits-Tröster, Kristy

2008-11-01

Military service in Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom [OEF]) and Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedom [OIF]) has been associated with high rates of mental health problems. Relatively little is known, however, about the prevalence of risky drinking among OEF/OIF veterans using U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care. This study examined the prevalence of hazardous alcohol use among OEF/OIF veterans and the incidence of alcohol risk-reduction counseling offered by VA providers. A secondary analysis of data extracted from the VA outpatient Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients, a stratified random sample of VA clinic users from the fiscal year 2005 (October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2005), was conducted. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) was scored to assess hazardous drinking and possible alcohol use disorder (AUD). Patient report of alcohol counseling by a VA provider in the past year was queried for those with risky drinking behavior. The association of demographic variables with potentially hazardous alcohol use, alcohol use disorder, and receipt of alcohol risk-reduction counseling was estimated using logistic regression. Overall, 40% of the sample screened positive for potentially hazardous alcohol use, and 22% screened positive for possible AUD. Only 31% of those with hazardous drinking behavior, however, reported being counseled to cut back or to not drink alcohol. Higher AUDIT-C scores were associated with increased likelihood of risk-reduction counseling. Among patients reporting hazardous drinking, there was a trend for those with less education and lower income to be more likely to report receiving advice about their drinking. Hazardous alcohol use is prevalent among OEF/OIF veterans seeking VA health care. There is a need for increased vigilance and action to identify and counsel at-risk veterans in this population. Copyright 2008 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Risk reduction assessment of waterborne Salmonella and Vibrio by a chlorine contact disinfectant point-of-use device.

PubMed

Coulliette, Angela D; Enger, Kyle S; Weir, Mark H; Rose, Joan B

2013-06-01

Unsafe drinking water continues to burden developing countries despite improvements in clean water delivery and sanitation, in response to Millennium Development Goal 7. Salmonella serotype Typhi and Vibrio cholerae bacteria can contaminate drinking water, causing waterborne typhoid fever and cholera, respectively. Household water treatment (HWT) systems are widely promoted to consumers in developing countries but it is difficult to establish their benefits to the population for specific disease reduction. This research uses a laboratory assessment of halogenated chlorine beads treating contaminated water to inform a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of S. Typhi and V. cholerae disease in a developing country community of 1000 people. Laboratory challenges using seeded well water resulted in log10 reductions of 5.44 (± 0.98 standard error (SE)) and 6.07 (± 0.09 SE) for Salmonella serotype Typhimurium and V. cholerae, respectively. In well water with 10% sewage and seeded bacteria, the log10 reductions were 6.06 (± 0.62 SE) and 7.78 (± 0.11 SE) for S. Typhimurium and V. cholerae, respectively. When one infected individual was contributing to the water contamination through fecal material leaking into the water source, the risk of disease associated with drinking untreated water was high according to a Monte Carlo analysis: a median of 0.20 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.017-0.54) for typhoid fever and a median of 0.11 (IQR 0.039-0.20) for cholera. If water was treated, risk greatly decreased, to a median of 4.1 × 10(-7) (IQR 1.6 × 10(-8) to 1.1 × 10(-5)) for typhoid fever and a median of 3.5 × 10(-9) (IQR 8.0 × 10(-10) to 1.3 × 10(-8)) for cholera. Insights on risk management policies and strategies for public health workers were gained using a simple QMRA scenario informed by laboratory assessment of HWT. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Direct reduction may need to be considered to avoid postoperative subtype P in patients with an unstable trochanteric fracture: a retrospective study using a multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Kozono, Naoya; Ikemura, Satoshi; Yamashita, Akihisa; Harada, Takashi; Watanabe, Tetsuya; Shirasawa, Kenzo

2014-12-01

It has recently been reported that the cases with an anterior femoral neck cortex posterior to the distal fragment (subtype P) in the lateral view of a postoperative radiograph have a risk of excessive sliding of lag screws compared to those located anterior to the distal fragment (subtype A) or perfectly continuous to the distal fragment (subtype N) following osteosynthesis for the treatment of a trochanteric fracture. The purpose of this study was to investigate factors that influence the postoperative subtype in the lateral view of radiographs. This study reviewed 136 patients who underwent osteosynthesis using an intramedullary hip nail for the treatment of a trochanteric fracture. A closed reduction was performed in 130 patients (95.6 %), while a direct reduction via a small elevator with a small skin incision was performed in the other six patients (4.4 %). The 136 patients were divided into two groups (subtype P and subtype A or N) based on postoperative radiographs taken of the lateral view. Both clinical and radiological factors were analyzed using the univariate and multivariable analyses. Thirty-nine patients (29 %) were categorized as subtype P and 97 patients (71 %) were categorized as subtype A or N. A multivariate analysis demonstrated that unstable fractures were associated with a significant risk of postoperative subtype P (Odds ratio: 24.45, P = 0.0024). The results of this study suggest that direct reduction via a small elevator with a small skin incision or percutaneous intrafocal pinning may be needed in these cases.

Effects of dose reduction on bone strength prediction using finite element analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anitha, D.; Subburaj, Karupppasamy; Mei, Kai; Kopp, Felix K.; Foehr, Peter; Noel, Peter B.; Kirschke, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas

2016-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of dose reduction, by means of tube exposure reduction, on bone strength prediction from finite-element (FE) analysis. Fresh thoracic mid-vertebrae specimens (n = 11) were imaged, using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT), at different intensities of X-ray tube exposures (80, 150, 220 and 500 mAs). Bone mineral density (BMD) was estimated from the mid-slice of each specimen from MDCT images. Differences in image quality and geometry of each specimen were measured. FE analysis was performed on all specimens to predict fracture load. Paired t-tests were used to compare the results obtained, using the highest CT dose (500 mAs) as reference. Dose reduction had no significant impact on FE-predicted fracture loads, with significant correlations obtained with reference to 500 mAs, for 80 mAs (R2  = 0.997, p < 0.001), 150 mAs (R2 = 0.998, p < 0.001) and 220 mAs (R2 = 0.987, p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in volume quantification between the different doses examined. CT imaging radiation dose could be reduced substantially to 64% with no impact on strength estimates obtained from FE analysis. Reduced CT dose will enable early diagnosis and advanced monitoring of osteoporosis and associated fracture risk.

The association between physical activity and renal cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Behrens, G; Leitzmann, M F

2013-01-01

Background: Physical activity may decrease renal cancer risk by reducing obesity, blood pressure, insulin resistance, and lipid peroxidation. Despite plausible biologic mechanisms linking increased physical activity to decreased risk for renal cancer, few epidemiologic studies have been able to report a clear inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer, and no meta-analysis is available on the topic. Methods: We searched the literature using PubMed and Web of Knowledge to identify published non-ecologic epidemiologic studies quantifying the relationship between physical activity and renal cancer risk in individuals without a cancer history. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, including information from 19 studies based on a total of 2 327 322 subjects and 10 756 cases. The methodologic quality of the studies was examined using a comprehensive scoring system. Results: Comparing high vs low levels of physical activity, we observed an inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (summary relative risk (RR) from random-effects meta-analysis=0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.79–0.97). Summarising risk estimates from high-quality studies strengthened the inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (RR=0.78; 95% CI=0.66–0.92). Effect modification by adiposity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, gender, or geographic region was not observed. Conclusion: Our comprehensive meta-analysis provides strong support for an inverse relation of physical activity to renal cancer risk. Future high-quality studies are required to discern which specific types, intensities, frequencies, and durations of physical activity are needed for renal cancer risk reduction. PMID:23412105

MAVEN Information Security Governance, Risk Management, and Compliance (GRC): Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takamura, Eduardo; Gomez-Rosa, Carlos A.; Mangum, Kevin; Wasiak, Fran

2014-01-01

As the first interplanetary mission managed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) had three IT security goals for its ground system: COMPLIANCE, (IT) RISK REDUCTION, and COST REDUCTION. In a multiorganizational environment in which government, industry and academia work together in support of the ground system and mission operations, information security governance, risk management, and compliance (GRC) becomes a challenge as each component of the ground system has and follows its own set of IT security requirements. These requirements are not necessarily the same or even similar to each other's, making the auditing of the ground system security a challenging feat. A combination of standards-based information security management based on the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management Framework (RMF), due diligence by the Mission's leadership, and effective collaboration among all elements of the ground system enabled MAVEN to successfully meet NASA's requirements for IT security, and therefore meet Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) mandate on the Agency. Throughout the implementation of GRC on MAVEN during the early stages of the mission development, the Project faced many challenges some of which have been identified in this paper. The purpose of this paper is to document these challenges, and provide a brief analysis of the lessons MAVEN learned. The historical information documented herein, derived from an internal pre-launch lessons learned analysis, can be used by current and future missions and organizations implementing and auditing GRC.

Nuclear energy in Europe: uranium flow modeling and fuel cycle scenario trade-offs from a sustainability perspective.

PubMed

Tendall, Danielle M; Binder, Claudia R

2011-03-15

The European nuclear fuel cycle (covering the EU-27, Switzerland and Ukraine) was modeled using material flow analysis (MFA).The analysis was based on publicly available data from nuclear energy agencies and industries, national trade offices, and nongovernmental organizations. Military uranium was not considered due to lack of accessible data. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios varying spent fuel reprocessing, depleted uranium re-enrichment, enrichment assays, and use of fast neutron reactors, were established. They were then assessed according to environmental, economic and social criteria such as resource depletion, waste production, chemical and radiation emissions, costs, and proliferation risks. The most preferable scenario in the short term is a combination of reduced tails assay and enrichment grade, allowing a 17.9% reduction of uranium demand without significantly increasing environmental, economic, or social risks. In the long term, fast reactors could theoretically achieve a 99.4% decrease in uranium demand and nuclear waste production. However, this involves important costs and proliferation risks. Increasing material efficiency is not systematically correlated with the reduction of other risks. This suggests that an overall optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, criteria must be weighted according to stakeholder interests in order to determine the most sustainable solution. This paper models the flows of uranium and associated materials in Europe, and provides a decision support tool for identifying the trade-offs of the alternative nuclear fuel cycles considered.

Moral Hazard: How The National Flood Insurance Program Is Limiting Risk Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE December...assessment, floodplain management , and flood insurance. A study of the NFIP concludes that aspects of the program limit risk reduction...floodplain management , risk assessment, disaster recovery, flood insurance claim, pre-flood insurance rate map 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 123 16. PRICE CODE

Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

PubMed

Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

2004-01-01

The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

Risk factors for Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections consequences of inappropriate initial antimicrobial therapy: a systematic literature review meta-analysis.

PubMed

Merchant, Sanjay; Proudfoot, Emma M; Quadri, Hafsa N; McElroy, Heather J; Wright, William R; Gupta, Ankur; Sarpong, Eric M

2018-02-15

Treating infections of Gram-negative pathogens, in particular Pseudomonas aeruginosa, is a challenge for clinicians in the Asia-Pacific region due to inherent and acquired resistance to antimicrobials. This systematic review and meta-analysis provides updated information of the risk factors for P. aeruginosa infections in Asia-Pacific, and consequences (e.g., mortality, costs) of initial inappropriate antimicrobial therapy (IIAT). EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched for Asia-Pacific studies reporting the consequences of IIAT versus initial appropriate antimicrobial therapy (IAAT) in Gram-negative infections, and risk factors for serious P. aeruginosa infections. A meta-analysis of unadjusted mortality was performed using random-effects model. Twenty-two studies reporting mortality and 13 reporting risk factors were identified. The meta-analysis demonstrated that mortality was significantly lower in patients receiving IAAT versus IIAT, with 67% reduction observed for 28- or 30-day all-cause mortality (OR 0.33; 95% CI 0.20, 0.55; P <0.001). Risk factors for serious P. aeruginosa infection include previous exposure to antimicrobials, mechanical ventilation, and previous hospitalization. The high rates of antimicrobial resistance in Asia-Pacific, as well as increased mortality associated with IIAT and the presence of risk factors for serious infection, highlight the importance of access to newer and appropriate antimicrobials. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Management of immunosuppressive therapy in liver transplant recipients who develop bloodstream infection.

PubMed

Bartoletti, Michele; Vandi, Giacomo; Furii, Francesca; Bertuzzo, Valentina; Ambretti, Simone; Tedeschi, Sara; Pascale, Renato; Cristini, Francesco; Campoli, Caterina; Morelli, Maria Cristina; Cescon, Matteo; Pinna, Antonio Daniele; Viale, Pierluigi; Giannella, Maddalena

2018-05-29

Data about the optimal management of immunosuppressive therapy in liver transplant (LT) recipients with bloodstream infection (BSI) are missing. We aimed to describe the management of immunosuppressive therapy at diagnosis of BSI in LT recipients and to assess its impact on 28-day mortality. We performed a single-centre retrospective study of all LT recipients diagnosed with BSI, over 10-year period. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of risk factors for all-cause 28-day mortality was adjusted for the propensity score of being managed with "any reduction" in immunosuppressive therapy at the diagnosis of BSI. We identified 209 episodes of BSI in 157 LT recipients: 107 (68%) male, median age 54 (IQR 48-63) years. "Any reduction" was made in 90 (43%) cases including: dosage reduction of ≥1 immunosuppressive drug in 31 (15%), discontinuation of ≥1 immunosuppressive drug in 28 (13%), both dosage reduction and discontinuation in 13 (6%), complete withdrawal of immunosuppressive therapy in 18 (9%) cases. All-cause 28-day mortality rate was 13.4%, varying from 22% to 7% (p=0.002) in cases with and without "any reduction". Cox regression showed septic shock (aHR 3.15, p=0.007) and "any reduction" (aHR 2.50, p=0.02) as independent risk factors for all-cause 28-day mortality, while Escherichia coli (aHR 0.38, p=0.03) and source control (aHR 0.43, p=0.04) were protective factors. The final model did not change after the introduction of the propensity score for "any reduction". Any reduction in the immunosuppressive therapy was common and was associated with worse outcome in LT recipients developing BSI. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

PubMed

Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

2014-04-01

A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

Heart failure disease management programs: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Heidenreich, Paul A; Weinstein, Milton C; Fonarow, Gregg C

2008-02-01

Heart failure (HF) disease management programs have shown impressive reductions in hospitalizations and mortality, but in studies limited to short time frames and high-risk patient populations. Current guidelines thus only recommend disease management targeted to high-risk patients with HF. This study applied a new technique to infer the degree to which clinical trials have targeted patients by risk based on observed rates of hospitalization and death. A Markov model was used to assess the incremental life expectancy and cost of providing disease management for high-risk to low-risk patients. Sensitivity analyses of various long-term scenarios and of reduced effectiveness in low-risk patients were also considered. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of extending coverage to all patients was $9700 per life-year gained in the base case. In aggregate, universal coverage almost quadrupled life-years saved as compared to coverage of only the highest quintile of risk. A worst case analysis with simultaneous conservative assumptions yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $110,000 per life-year gained. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99.74% of possible incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were <$50,000 per life-year gained. Heart failure disease management programs are likely cost-effective in the long-term along the whole spectrum of patient risk. Health gains could be extended by enrolling a broader group of patients with HF in disease management.

Recovery Support for Adolescents with Substance use Disorders: The Impact of Recovery Support Telephone Calls Provided by Pre-Professional Volunteers

PubMed Central

Garner, Bryan R; Godley, Mark D; Passetti, Lora L; Funk, Rodney R; White, William L

2014-01-01

The present quasi-experiment examined the direct and indirect effects of recovery support telephone calls following adolescent substance use disorder treatment. Six-month outcome data from 202 adolescents who had received recovery support calls from primarily pre-professional (i.e., college-level social service students) volunteers was compared to 6-month outcome data from a matched comparison sample of adolescents (n = 404). Results suggested adolescents in the recovery support sample had significantly greater reductions in their recovery environment risk relative to the comparison sample (β = -.17). Path analysis also suggested that the reduction in recovery environment risk produced by recovery support calls had indirect impacts (via recovery environment risk) on reductions in social risk (β = .22), substance use (β = .23), and substance-related problems (β = .16). Finally, moderation analyses suggested the effects of recovery support calls did not differ by gender, but were significantly greater for adolescents with lower levels of treatment readiness. In addition to providing rare empirical support for the effectiveness of recovery support services, an important contribution of this study is that it provides evidence that recovery support services do not necessarily have to be “peer-based,” at least in terms of the recovery support service provider having the experiential credentials of being “in recovery.” If replicated, this latter finding may have particularly important implications for helping increase the recovery support workforce. PMID:25574502

Establishing Assay Cutoffs for HLA Antibody Screening of Apheresis Donors

PubMed Central

Carrick, Danielle M.; Norris, Philip J.; Endres, Robert O.; Pandey, Suchitra; Kleinman, Steven H.; Wright, David; Sun, Yu; Busch, Michael P.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND TRALI is the leading cause of transfusion-related deaths. Donor HLA antibodies have been implicated in TRALI cases. Blood centers are implementing TRALI risk reduction strategies based on HLA antibody screening of some subpopulations of ever-pregnant apheresis platelet donors. However, if screening assay cutoffs are too sensitive, donation loss may adversely impact blood availability. STUDY DESIGN Pregnancy history and HLA antibody screening and single antigen bead (SAB) data from blood donors in the REDS-II Leukocyte Antibody Prevalence Study (LAPS) were evaluated for correlations between assay screening values, HLA antibody titer, and number of HLA antigen specificities. The probabilities of matching a cognate antigen in a recipient were calculated and examined in association with total number of specificities observed and screening values. The relative impact of imposing various screening assay cutoffs or pregnancy stratification was examined in relation to detection of HLA antibody reactive donations and loss of donors and donations. RESULTS We provide evidence that higher HLA Ab screening assay values are associated with maintaining higher screening signals upon dilution and an increased breadth of specificities compared with lower screening values; the latter correlated with an increased risk of a cognate antigen match in potential recipients. Depending upon the TRALI risk reduction strategy used, the potential loss of donations ranged between 0.9 and 6.0%. CONCLUSION This analysis should enable blood centers to decide upon a TRALI risk reduction strategy for apheresis platelets that is consistent with how much donation loss the blood center can tolerate. PMID:21332726

Alcohol Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors in a Migrant Worker Community.

PubMed

McCoy, H Virginia; Shehadeh, Nancy; Rubens, Muni

2016-06-01

There are not many studies exploring the association between alcohol use and risky sexual behaviors among migrant workers. This study analyzed how changes in alcohol use was associated with changes in risky sexual behavior and psychosocial variables. Data for this study was drawn from an HIV risk reduction project. Repeated measures ANOVA and Linear mixed model statistical method was conducted to find changes and association between alcohol use, sexual risk and psychosocial variables over time. The sample (n = 203) was composed of African Americans (33.0 %) and Hispanics (77.0 %) men. Both groups, over time, showed reduction in sexual risk in accordance with reduction in alcohol use. Changes in alcohol use and psychosocial variables showed significant association with sexual risk changes over time. Psychological strategies like building social support should be considered for HIV risk reduction intervention directed towards high alcohol consuming migrant workers.

Content Analysis of US News Stories About E-Cigarettes in 2015.

PubMed

Wackowski, Olivia A; Giovenco, Daniel P; Singh, Binu; Lewis, M Jane; Steinberg, Michael B; Delnevo, Cristine D

2017-08-03

Coverage of e-cigarettes in the news media may shape public perceptions about them but little is known about such news content. This content analysis characterized discussion of e-cigarettes in leading print and online US news sources in 2015. We searched Access World News and Factiva databases for e-cigarette-related news articles appearing in the top 30 circulating newspapers, 4 newswires, and 4 online news sources in the United States in 2015 (n = 295). Coders identified the presence of various e-cigarette topics (e.g. regulation), and benefit and risk statements. Nearly half of articles (45.1%) focused primarily on e-cigarette policy/regulatory issues, although e-cigarette prevalence (21.0%) and health effects (21.7%) were common main topics. Concerns about youth were frequently mentioned, including the rise in youth e-cigarette use (45.4%), gateway to smoking potential (33.9%) and appeal of flavors (22.4%). Youth e-cigarette prevalence was more frequently mentioned than adult prevalence in articles discussing FDA regulation (61% vs. 13.5%, respectively). News articles more frequently discussed potential e-cigarette risks or concerns (80%) than benefits (45.4%), such as smoking harm-reduction. Quoted physicians, researchers, and government representatives were more likely to refer to e-cigarette risks than benefits. In 2015, rising rates of e-cigarette use among youth and policy strategies to address e-cigarettes dominated US e-cigarette news stories, leading up to their FDA regulation in 2016. Statements about e-cigarettes' potential risks were frequently attributed to trusted sources such as physicians, and outnumbered claims about their harm-reduction benefits. Such coverage may impact e-cigarette risk perceptions, use intentions and policy support. In the year leading up to the FDA's Deeming Rule, concerns about youth use or potential use were frequently discussed in e-cigarette news. News articles more frequently discussed potential e-cigarette risks/concerns compared to potential harm-reduction benefits relative to tobacco cigarettes. While such coverage may inform the public about potential e-cigarette risks, they may also contribute to increasing perceptions that e-cigarettes are as harmful as tobacco cigarettes. E-cigarette risk and benefit statements were most frequently made by or attributed to researchers and physicians in articles, which is significant given that they may be particularly trusted sources of e-cigarette risk information. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Parental Attitudes Regarding School-Based Sexuality Education in Utah

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steadman, Mindy; Crookston, Benjamin; Page, Randy; Hall, Cougar

2014-01-01

Sexuality education programs can be broadly categorized as either risk-avoidance or risk-reduction approaches. Health educators in Utah public schools must teach a state mandated risk-avoidance curriculum which prohibits the advocacy or encouragement of contraception. Multiple national surveys indicate that parents prefer a risk-reduction approach…

Effects of Tai Chi-based cardiac rehabilitation on aerobic endurance, psychosocial well-being, and cardiovascular risk reduction among patients with coronary heart disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Ting; Chan, Aileen Wk; Liu, Yun Hong; Taylor-Piliae, Ruth E

2018-04-01

Tai Chi is an attractive exercise to improve cardiovascular health. This review aimed to synthesize articles written both in Chinese and in English to evaluate the effects of Tai Chi-based cardiac rehabilitation on aerobic endurance, psychosocial well-being and cardiovascular diseases risk reduction for coronary heart diseases patients. PRISMA guidelines were used to search major health databases to identify randomized controlled trials or non-randomized controlled clinical trials that evaluated Tai Chi intervention compared with active or non-active control groups in coronary heart disease patients. When suitable, data were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis model. Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Tai Chi groups showed a large and significant improvement in aerobic endurance compared with both active and non-active control interventions (standard mean difference (SMD) 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.58-1.66; p <0.001). Tai Chi groups also showed a significantly lower level of anxiety (SMD=9.28; CI: 17.46-1.10; p=0.03) and depression (SMD=9.42; CI: 13.59-5.26; p <0.001), and significantly better quality of life (SMD=0.73; 95% CI: 0.39-1.08; p <0.001) compared with non-active control groups. Significant effects of Tai Chi have been found in improving aerobic endurance and psychosocial well-being among coronary heart disease patients. Tai Chi could be a cost-effective and safe exercise option in cardiac rehabilitation. However, the effect of Tai Chi on cardiovascular disease risk reduction has not been amply investigated among coronary heart disease patients. Caution is also warranted in view of a small number of studies for this meta-analysis and potential heterogeneity in differences in the varied designs of Tai Chi intervention.

[Efficacy of heat and moisture exchangers and heated humidifiers in preventing ventilator-associated pneumonia: a meta-analysis].

PubMed

Mo, Min; Liu, Song-qiao; Yang, Yi

2011-09-01

To demonstrate the effects of heat and moisture exchangers (HME) and heated humidifiers(HH) in preventing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). PubMed and Cochrane databases were searched by computer retrieval and manual retrieval to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using HMEs and HHs in preventing VAP from January 1st 1990 to September 1st 2010. Meta-analysis of HME and HH in preventing VAP was conducted using the methods recommended by the Cochrane Collaboration. Eleven RCTs were included. 1 121 in HME group and 1 101 in HH group. In total, the rate of VAP in HME group and HH group was 14.2% (159/1 121) and 15.9% (175/1 101) respectively, the total relative risk (RR) was 0.88, and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.72-1.07, P=0.21. Compared with HH group, there was not a reduction in the risk ratio of VAP in the HME group. Even in mechanical ventilation(MV) with a duration of at least 7 days for subgroup analysis (8 RCTs, sample size: 834 in HME group and 859 in HH group), the rate of VAP in HME group and HH group was 15.2% (127/834) and 17.5% (150/859) respectively, the total RR was 0.84, 95%CI 0. 58-1.23, P=0.37, suggesting that in MV with a duration at least 7 days, there was also no reduction in the risk ratio of VAP in the HME group. This study suggests there is not a significant reduction in the incidence of VAP in patients humidified with HMEs during MV, even in patients ventilated for 7 days or longer. This finding is limited by lack of enough RCTs and blinding. Further large sample of high quality RCTs is necessary to examine the wider applicability of HMEs and their extended use.

The Healthy LifeWorks Project: a pilot study of the economic analysis of a comprehensive workplace wellness program in a Canadian government department.

PubMed

Makrides, Lydia; Smith, Steven; Allt, Jane; Farquharson, Jane; Szpilfogel, Claudine; Curwin, Sandra; Veinot, Paula; Wang, Feifei; Edington, Dee

2011-07-01

To examine the relationship between health risks and absenteeism and drug costs vis-a-vis comprehensive workplace wellness. Eleven health risks, and change in drug claims, short-term and general illness calculated across four risk change groups. Wellness score examined using Wilcoxon test and regression model for cost change. The results showed 31% at risk; 9 of 11 risks associated with higher drug costs. Employees moving from low to high risk showed highest relative increase (81%) in drug costs; moving from high to low had lowest (24%). Low-high had highest increase in absenteeism costs (160%). With each risk increase, absenteeism costs increased by $CDN248 per year (P < 0.05) with average decrease of 0.07 risk factors and savings $CDN6979 per year. Both high-risk reduction and low-risk maintenance are important to contain drug costs. Only low-risk maintenance also avoids absenteeism costs associated with high risks.

Sunlight exposure is important for preventing hip fractures in patients with Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, or stroke.

PubMed

Iwamoto, J; Takeda, T; Matsumoto, H

2012-04-01

Hypovitaminosis D as a result of malnutrition or sunlight deprivation, increased bone resorption, low bone mineral density (BMD), or an increased risk of falls may contribute to an increased risk of hip fractures in patients with neurological diseases, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and stroke. The purpose of this study was to clarify the efficacy of sunlight exposure for reducing the risk of hip fractures in patients with such neurological diseases. The English literature was searched using PubMed, and randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of sunlight exposure for reducing the risk of hip fractures in patients with Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and stroke were identified. The relative risk and the 95% confidence interval were calculated for individual randomized controlled trials, and a pooled data analysis (meta-analysis) was performed. Three randomized controlled trials were identified. Sunlight exposure improved hypovitaminosis D and increased the BMD. The relative risk (95% confidence interval) of hip fractures was 0.22 (0.05, 1.01) for Alzheimer's disease, 0.27 (0.08, 0.96) for Parkinson's disease, and 0.17 (0.02, 1.36) for stroke. The relative risk (95% confidence interval) calculated for the pooled data analysis was 0.23 (0.10, 0.56) (P = 0.0012), suggesting a significant risk reduction rate of 77%. The present meta-analysis added additional evidence indicating the efficacy of sunlight exposure for reducing the risk of hip fractures in patients with Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and stroke. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cochlear dose reduction by proton beam therapy for medulloblastoma in childhood.

PubMed

Hirano, Emi; Fuji, Hiroshi; Onoe, Tsuyoshi; Kumar, Vinay; Shirato, Hiroki; Kawabuchi, Koichi

2014-03-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of proton beam therapy with cochlear dose reduction compared with conventional X-ray radiotherapy for medulloblastoma in childhood. We developed a Markov model to describe health states of 6-year-old children with medulloblastoma after treatment with proton or X-ray radiotherapy. The risks of hearing loss were calculated on cochlear dose for each treatment. Three types of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of EQ-5D, HUI3 and SF-6D were used for estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for proton beam therapy compared with X-ray radiotherapy was calculated for each HRQOL. Sensitivity analyses were performed to model uncertainty in these parameters. The ICER for EQ-5D, HUI3 and SF-6D were $21 716/QALY, $11 773/QALY, and $20 150/QALY, respectively. One-way sensitivity analyses found that the results were sensitive to discount rate, the risk of hearing loss after proton therapy, and costs of proton irradiation. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curve analysis revealed a 99% probability of proton therapy being cost effective at a societal willingness-to-pay value. Proton beam therapy with cochlear dose reduction improves health outcomes at a cost that is within the acceptable cost-effectiveness range from the payer's standpoint.

Fruit and Vegetables Consumption: A Pointer for Cholangiocarcinoma Prevention in Northeast Thailand, the Highest Incidence Area in the World.

PubMed

Songserm, Nopparat; Woradet, Somkiattiyos; Charoenbut, Pattaraporn

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) caused by opisthorchiasis is a specific public health problem in the Greater Mekong subregional countries. The Northeast Thailand is considered a world's prime area of CCA. Many epidemiological studies found the association between fruit and vegetables consumption and CCA, but their results were inconclusive. Therefore, this meta-analysis aimed to investigate the relationship between fruit and vegetables consumption and CCA prevention in the Northeast Thailand. The authors conducted a comprehensive search of scholarships on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and SCOPUS published during 1990 and 2015. Selected studies about fruit and vegetables consumption and CCA were analyzed. The fixed-effect model was used to estimate pool odds ratios for the consumption vs. nonconsumption. Based on a meta-analysis, consumption of mixed fruit [odds ratio (OR) = 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.96], mixed vegetables (OR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.50-0.75), and combined fruit and vegetables (OR = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.57-0.80) was associated with the reduction of CCA risk statistically. These findings support that fruit and vegetables consumption is associated with CCA risk reduction. If implemented in a larger geographical area, the study will shed light on possibilities to future reduction of CCA. Educators can replicate the study to solve CCA or other types of cancer and discover the best practice.

The efficacy of therapeutic ultrasound for rotator cuff tendinopathy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Desmeules, François; Boudreault, Jennifer; Roy, Jean-Sébastien; Dionne, Clermont; Frémont, Pierre; MacDermid, Joy C

2015-08-01

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the efficacy of therapeutic ultrasound (US) in adults suffering from rotator cuff tendinopathy. A literature search was conducted in four databases for randomized controlled trials (RCT) published until 12/2013, comparing the efficacy of US to any other interventions in adults suffering from rotator cuff tendinopathy. The Cochrane Risk of Bias tool was used to evaluate the risk of bias of included studies. Data were summarized qualitatively or quantitatively. Eleven RCTs with a low mean methodological score (50.0% ± 15.6%) were included. Therapeutic US did not provide greater benefits than a placebo intervention or advice in terms of pain reduction and functional improvement. When provided in conjunction with exercise, US therapy is not superior to exercise alone in terms of pain reduction and functional improvement (pooled mean difference of the Constant-Murley score: -0.26 with 95% confidence interval of -3.84 to 3.32). Laser therapy was found superior to therapeutic US in terms of pain reduction. Based on low to moderate level evidence, therapeutic US does not provide any benefit compared to a placebo or advice, to laser therapy or when combined to exercise. More methodologically sound studies on the efficacy of therapeutic US are warranted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A strategy for selecting sexual partners believed to pose little/no risks for HIV: serosorting and its implications for HIV transmission.

PubMed

Eaton, Lisa A; Kalichman, Seth C; O'Connell, Daniel A; Karchner, William D

2009-10-01

A common HIV/AIDS risk reduction strategy among men who have sex with men (MSM) is to limit their unprotected sex partners to those who are of the same HIV status, a practice referred to as serosorting. Decisions to serosort for HIV risk reduction are based on personal impressions and beliefs, and there is limited guidance offered on this community derived strategy from public health services. This paper reviews research on serosorting for HIV risk reduction and offers an evidence-based approach to serosorting guidance. Following a comprehensive electronic and manual literature search, we reviewed 51 studies relating to the implications of serosorting. Studies showed that HIV negative MSM who select partners based on HIV status are inadvertently placing themselves at risk for HIV. Infrequent HIV testing, lack of HIV status disclosure, co-occurring sexually transmitted infections, and acute HIV infection impede the potential protective benefits of serosorting. Public health messages should continue to encourage reductions in numbers of sexual partners and increases in condom use. Risk reduction messages should also highlight the limitations of relying on one's own and partner's HIV status in making sexual risk decisions.

[Effects of a lower body weight or waist circumference on cardiovascular risk].

PubMed

Labraña, Ana María; Durán, Eliana; Martínez, María Adela; Leiva, Ana María; Garrido-Méndez, Alex; Díaz, Ximena; Salas, Carlos; Celis-Morales, Carlos

2017-05-01

Overall and central obesity are important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. To investigate the association of body weight, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with cardiovascular risk factors in Chile. We included 5,157 participants from the National Health Survey 2009-2010. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, metabolic syndrome and dyslipidemia (high total cholesterol and triglyceride levels and low HDL-cholesterol) were defined using international recommendations. BMI and WC were measured using standardized protocols. A five percent lower body weight, BMI and WC were associated with a significant reduction in cardiovascular risk factors. For each 5% reduction in body weight, the risk for hypertension decreased by 8 and 9% in women and men respectively. Similar risk reductions were observed for diabetes (9 and 11% respectively), metabolic syndrome (23 and 30% respectively), low HDL cholesterol (13 and 13% respectively), high triglyceride levels (16 and 18% respectively) and total cholesterol (8 and 10% respectively). Similar findings were observed for BMI and WC. Lower body weight, BMI or WC are associated with important reductions in cardiovascular risk factors. A 5% reduction in these adiposity markers could be a perfectly feasible goal for lifestyle interventions.

Policies for Reducing Coastal Risk on the East and Gulf Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glickson, D.; Johnson, S.

2014-12-01

Hurricane- and coastal storm-related economic losses have increased substantially over the past century, largely due to expanding population and development in susceptible coastal areas. Concurrent with this growth, the federal government has assumed an increasing proportion of the financial responsibility associated with U.S. coastal storms, which may discourage state and local governments from taking appropriate actions to reduce risk and enhance resilience. Strategies to manage coastal storm risks fall into two categories: reducing the probability of flooding or wave impact (such as seawalls, storm surge barriers, beach nourishment, dune building, restoration/expansion of oyster reefs, salt marshes, and mangroves) and reducing the number or vulnerability of people or structures (such as relocation, land-use planning, and elevating or floodproofing buildings). Over the past century, most coastal risk management programs have emphasized coastal armoring, while doing little to decrease development in harm's way. This National Research Council report calls for the development of a national vision for managing coastal risks that includes a long-term view, regional solutions, and recognition of all benefits. A national coastal risk assessment is needed to identify high priority areas. Benefit-cost analysis provides a reasonable framework to evaluate national investments in coastal risk reduction, if constrained by other important environmental, social, and life-safety factors. Extensive collaboration and additional policy changes will be necessary to move from a nation that is primarily reactive to coastal disasters to one that invests wisely in coastal risk reduction and builds resilience among coastal communities.

Effect of systematic ergonomic hazard identification and control implementation on musculoskeletal disorder and injury risk.

PubMed

Cantley, Linda F; Taiwo, Oyebode A; Galusha, Deron; Barbour, Russell; Slade, Martin D; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Cullen, Mark R

2014-01-01

This study aimed to examine the effect of an ergonomic hazard control (HC) initiative, undertaken as part of a company ergonomics standard, on worker injury risk. Using the company's ergonomic hazards database to identify jobs with and without ergonomic HC implementation and linking to individual job and injury histories, injury risk among person-jobs with HC implementation (the HC group) was compared to those without HC (NoHC group) using random coefficient models. Further analysis of the HC group was conducted to determine the effect of additional ergonomic hazards controlled on injury risk. Among 123 jobs at 17 plant locations, 347 ergonomic hazards were quantitatively identified during the study period. HC were implemented for 204 quantified ergonomic hazards in 84 jobs, impacting 10 385 persons (12 967 person-jobs). No HC were implemented for quantified ergonomic hazards in the remaining 39 jobs affecting 4155 persons (5046 person-jobs). Adjusting for age, sex, plant origin, and year to control for any temporal trend in injury risk, the relative risk (RR) for musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) was 0.85 and the RR for any injury or MSD was 0.92 in the HC compared to NoHC group. Among the HC group, each ergonomic hazard controlled was associated with risk reduction for MSD and acute injury outcomes (RR 0.93). Systematic ergonomic HC through participatory ergonomics, as part of a mandatory company ergonomics standard, is associated with MSD and injury risk reduction among workers in jobs with HC implemented.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

The VIDA Framework as an Education Tool: Leveraging Volcanology Data for Educational Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faied, D.; Sanchez, A.

2009-04-01

The VIDA Framework as an Education Tool: Leveraging Volcanology Data for Educational Purposes Dohy Faied, Aurora Sanchez (on behalf of SSP08 VAPOR Project Team) While numerous global initiatives exist to address the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events and assess impacts from a civil security viewpoint, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking for eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program, a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, and this paper presents the principal results. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations for strategies to minimize or eliminate certain gaps are also provided. In the effort to address the gaps, a framework evolved at system level. This framework, known as VIDA, is a tool to develop user requirements for civil security in hazardous contexts, and a candidate system concept for a detailed design phase. While the basic intention of VIDA is to support disaster risk reduction efforts, there are several methods of leveraging raw science data to support education across a wide demographic. Basic geophysical data could be used to educate school children about the characteristics of volcanoes, satellite mappings could support informed growth and development of societies in at-risk areas, and raw sensor data could contribute to a wide range of university-level research projects. Satellite maps, basic geophysical data, and raw sensor data are combined and accessible in a way that allows the relationships between these data types to be explored and used in a training environment. Such a resource naturally lends itself to research efforts in the subject but also research in operational tools, system architecture, and human/machine interaction in civil protection or emergency scenarios.

Reducing Contingency through Sampling at the Luckey FUSRAP Site - 13186

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frothingham, David; Barker, Michelle; Buechi, Steve

2013-07-01

Typically, the greatest risk in developing accurate cost estimates for the remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste sites is the uncertainty in the estimated volume of contaminated media requiring remediation. Efforts to address this risk in the remediation cost estimate can result in large cost contingencies that are often considered unacceptable when budgeting for site cleanups. Such was the case for the Luckey Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site near Luckey, Ohio, which had significant uncertainty surrounding the estimated volume of site soils contaminated with radium, uranium, thorium, beryllium, and lead. Funding provided by the American Recoverymore » and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) allowed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to conduct additional environmental sampling and analysis at the Luckey Site between November 2009 and April 2010, with the objective to further delineate the horizontal and vertical extent of contaminated soils in order to reduce the uncertainty in the soil volume estimate. Investigative work included radiological, geophysical, and topographic field surveys, subsurface borings, and soil sampling. Results from the investigative sampling were used in conjunction with Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software to update the contaminated soil volume estimate for the site. This updated volume estimate was then used to update the project cost-to-complete estimate using the USACE Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis process, which develops cost contingencies based on project risks. An investment of $1.1 M of ARRA funds for additional investigative work resulted in a reduction of 135,000 in-situ cubic meters (177,000 in-situ cubic yards) in the estimated base volume estimate. This refinement of the estimated soil volume resulted in a $64.3 M reduction in the estimated project cost-to-complete, through a reduction in the uncertainty in the contaminated soil volume estimate and the associated contingency costs. (authors)« less

Risk factors for stroke and efficacy of antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation. Analysis of pooled data from five randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

1994-07-11

Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. Data on individual patients were pooled from five recently completed randomized trials comparing warfarin (all studies) or aspirin (the Atrial Fibrillation, Aspirin, Anticoagulation Study and the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study) with control in patients with atrial fibrillation. The purpose of the analysis was to (1) identify patient features predictive of a high or low risk of stroke, (2) assess the efficacy of antithrombotic therapy in major patient subgroups (eg, women), and (3) obtain the most precise estimate of the efficacy and risks of antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation. For the warfarin-control comparison there were 1889 patient-years receiving warfarin and 1802 in the control group. For the aspirin-placebo comparison there were 1132 patient-years receiving aspirin and 1133 receiving placebo. The daily dose of aspirin was 75 mg in the Atrial Fibrillation, Aspirin, Anticoagulation Study and 325 mg in the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study. To monitor warfarin dosage, three studies used prothrombin time ratios and two used international normalized ratios. The lowest target intensity was a prothrombin time ratio of 1.2 to 1.5 and the highest target intensity was an international normalized ratio of 2.8 to 4.2. The primary end points were ischemic stroke and major hemorrhage, as assessed by each study. At the time of randomization the mean age was 69 years and the mean blood pressure was 142/82 mm Hg. Forty-six percent of the patients had a history of hypertension, 6% had a previous transient ischemic attack or stroke, and 14% had diabetes. Risk factors that predicted stroke on multivariate analyses in control patients were increasing age, history of hypertension, previous transient ischemic attack or stroke, and diabetes. Patients younger than 65 years who had none of the other predictive factors (15% of all patients) had an annual rate of stroke of 1.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3% to 3.0%. The annual rate of stroke was 4.5% for the control group and 1.4% for the warfarin group (risk reduction, 68%; 95% CI, 50% to 79%). The efficacy of warfarin was consistent across all studies and subgroups of patients. In women, warfarin decreased the risk of stroke by 84% (95% CI, 55% to 95%) compared with 60% (95% CI, 35% to 76%) in men. The efficacy of aspirin was not as consistent. The risk reduction with 75 mg of aspirin in the Atrial Fibrillation, Aspirin, Anticoagulation Study was 18% (95% CI, 60% to 58%), and with 325 mg of aspirin in the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study the risk reduction was 44% (95% CI, 7% to 66%). When both studies were combined the risk reduction was 36% (95% CI, 4% to 57%). The annual rate of major hemorrhage (intracranial bleeding or a bleed requiring hospitalization or 2 units of blood) was 1.0% for the control group, 1.0% for the aspirin group, and 1.3% for the warfarin group. In these five randomized trials warfarin consistently decreased the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (a 68% reduction in risk) with virtually no increase in the frequency of major bleeding. Patients with atrial fibrillation younger than 65 years without a history of hypertension, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, or diabetes were at very low risk of stroke even when not treated. The efficacy of aspirin was less consistent. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of aspirin in atrial fibrillation.

Smoking in pregnancy in West Virginia: does cessation/reduction improve perinatal outcomes?

PubMed

Seybold, Dara J; Broce, Mike; Siegel, Eric; Findley, Joseph; Calhoun, Byron C

2012-01-01

To determine if pregnant women decreasing/quitting tobacco use will have improved fetal outcomes. Retrospective analysis of pregnant smokers from 6/1/2006-12/31/2007 who received prenatal care and delivered at a tertiary medical care center in West Virginia. Variables analyzed included birth certificate data linked to intervention program survey data. Patients were divided into four study groups: <8 cigarettes/day-no reduction, <8 cigarettes/day-reduction, ≥8 cigarettes/day-no reduction, and ≥8 cigarettes/day-reduction. Analysis performed using ANOVA one-way test for continuous variables and Chi-square for categorical variables. Inclusion criteria met by 250 patients. Twelve women (4.8%) quit smoking; 150 (60%) reduced; 27 (10.8%) increased; and 61 (24.4%) had no change. Comparing the four study groups for pre-term births (<37 weeks), 25% percent occurred in ≥8 no reduction group while 10% occurred in ≥8 with reduction group (P = 0.026). The high rate of preterm birth (25%) in the non-reducing group depended on 2 factors: (1) ≥8 cigarettes/day at beginning and (2) no reduction by the end of prenatal care. Finally, there was a statistically significant difference in birth weights between the two groups: ≥8 cigarettes/day with no reduction (2,872.6 g) versus <8 cigarettes/day with reduction (3,212.4 g) (P = 0.028). Smoking reduction/cessation lowered risk of pre-term delivery (<37 weeks) twofold. Encouraging patients who smoke ≥8 cigarettes/day during pregnancy to decrease/quit prior to delivery provides significant clinical benefit by decreasing the likelihood of preterm birth. These findings support tobacco cessation efforts as a means to improve birth outcome.

[Smoking fewer cigarettes per day may determine a significant risk reduction in developing smoking attributable diseases? Is there a risk reduction for e-cigarette users?].

PubMed

Pieri, Luca; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

Among Italian smokers--about 10 millions in 2013--about 600,000 began using electronic cigarettes (e-cigs) in last years. About 10% of e-cig users quitted smoking tobacco, whereas the 90% was dual users. Among them, about three out of four decreased the number of cigarettes smoked per day (cig/day), but did not quit. How many fewer cigarettes a smoker has to smoke to obtain significant health benefits? Is there a threshold? In order to observe a significant 27% reduction in the risk of developing lung cancer, a smoker must reduce the number of cig/day by at least 50%, while for the other smoking-related diseases (acute myocardial infarction - AMI, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases), halving the number of cig/day did not drive to a significant risk reduction. Even smoking 5 cig/day increases the risk of AMI, whereas it significantly lowers the risk of lung cancer. Obviously, quitting smoking is the best choice to highly reduce risks for all smoking-related diseases. Therefore, in order to achieve significant risk reductions, e-cig users should quit smoking as first choice, or, if they feel it is impossible to them, reduce the consumption of traditional cigarettes to less than 5 cig/day.

Educational Attainment and Adult Mortality in the United States: A Systematic Analysis of Functional Form*

PubMed Central

Montez, Jennifer Karas; Hummer, Robert A.; Hayward, Mark D.

2012-01-01

A vast literature has documented the inverse association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality risk, but given little attention to identifying the optimal functional form of the association. A theoretical explanation of the association hinges on our ability to empirically describe it. Using the 1979–1998 National Longitudinal Mortality Study for non-Hispanic white and black adults aged 25–100 years during the mortality follow-up period (N=1,008,215), we evaluated 13 functional forms across race-gender-age subgroups to determine which form(s) best captured the association. Results revealed that a functional form that includes a linear decline in mortality risk from 0–11 years of education, followed by a step-change reduction in mortality risk upon attainment of a high school diploma, at which point mortality risk resumes a linear decline but with a steeper slope than that prior to a high school diploma was generally preferred. The findings provide important clues for theoretical development of explanatory mechanisms: an explanation for the selected functional form may require integrating a credentialist perspective to explain the step-change reduction in mortality risk upon attainment of a high school diploma, with a human capital perspective to explain the linear declines before and after a high school diploma. PMID:22246797

Hazagora: will you survive the next disaster? - A serious game to raise awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mossoux, S.; Delcamp, A.; Poppe, S.; Michellier, C.; Canters, F.; Kervyn, M.

2016-01-01

Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations, with people being insufficiently aware of the factors leading to disasters and of the existing strategies to mitigate their impacts. We developed a board game aimed at raising awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction strategies. The target groups are (1) secondary school students and citizens and (2) scientists and stakeholders involved in risk management activities. For the first group, the aim is to induce a better understanding of the geohazards and disasters they are confronted with in the media or in their daily lives; for the second, the objective is to generate discussion about risk management strategies. The game was tested with students in Belgium and with citizens, earth scientists, and risk managers in several African countries. Based on analysis of the most common game strategies observed, the players' reactions during the game, and their answers to a short questionnaire, we analyzed the main learning outcomes conveyed by this game. The game Hazagora appears to positively enhance the players' insights into processes involved in disasters. As such, the game is an effective, fun learning tool to introduce participants to the concepts of geohazards and disasters and to generate discussion.

HAZAGORA: will you survive the next disaster? - a serious game to raise awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mossoux, S.; Delcamp, A.; Poppe, S.; Michellier, C.; Canters, F.; Kervyn, M.

2015-09-01

Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations, with people being insufficiently aware of the factors leading to disasters and of the existing strategies to mitigate their impacts. We developed a board game aimed at raising awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction strategies. The target groups are (1) secondary school students and citizens, and (2) scientists and stakeholders involved in risk management activities. For the first group, the aim is to induce a better understanding of geohazards and disasters they are confronted with in the media or in their daily life; for the second, the objective is to generate discussion about risk management strategies. The game was tested with students in Belgium and with citizens, earth scientists and risk managers in several African countries. Based on the game strategies analysis, the players' reactions during the game and their answers to a short questionnaire, we analyzed the main learning outcomes conveyed by this game. The Hazagora game appears to positively enhance the players' insight in processes involved in disasters. As such, the game is an effective playful learning tool to introduce participants to the concept of geohazard and disaster and to generate discussion.

Oil taxation and risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodriguez-Padilla, V.

1992-01-01

The relationship between the taxation system and the division of risks between the host country governments and the international companies is discussed. The analysis underscores the effect of taxation on the geological and political risks. These two cases are evaluated in two West-African oil-producing countries. It emerges from this that too heavy and regressive taxes greatly increase the risks supported by the two partners. The progressive character of the taxation is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the reduction of public and private risks. A taxation burden well-balanced among small and large deposits is the best way tomore » reduce the risk due to taxation. The oil-producing countries of this region had made great advances in developing neutral taxation systems but in most cases they must progress further. 15 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the implications for scientists and information delivery.

Performing a preliminary hazard analysis applied to administration of injectable drugs to infants.

PubMed

Hfaiedh, Nadia; Kabiche, Sofiane; Delescluse, Catherine; Balde, Issa-Bella; Merlin, Sophie; Carret, Sandra; de Pontual, Loïc; Fontan, Jean-Eudes; Schlatter, Joël

2017-08-01

Errors in hospitals during the preparation and administration of intravenous drugs to infants and children have been reported to a rate of 13% to 84%. This study aimed to investigate the potential for hazardous events that may lead to an accident for preparation and administration of drug injection in a pediatric department and to describe a reduction plan of risks. The preliminary hazard analysis (PHA) method was implemented by a multidisciplinary working group over a period of 5 months (April-August 2014) in infants aged from 28 days to 2 years. The group identified required hazard controls and follow-up actions to reduce the error risk. To analyze the results, the STATCART APR software was used. During the analysis, 34 hazardous situations were identified, among 17 were quoted very critical and drawn 69 risk scenarios. After follow-up actions, the scenarios with unacceptable risk declined from 17.4% to 0%, and these with acceptable under control from 46.4% to 43.5%. The PHA can be used as an aid in the prioritization of corrective actions and the implementation of control measures to reduce risk. The PHA is a complement of the a posteriori risk management already exists. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Direct oral anticoagulants for extended thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients: meta-analysis and risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Al Yami, Majed S; Kurdi, Sawsan; Abraham, Ivo

2018-01-01

Standard-duration (7-10 days) thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, low dose unfractionated heparin, or fondaparinux in hospitalized medically ill patients is associated with ~50% reduction in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, these patients remain at high risk for VTE post-discharge. The direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and betrixaban have been evaluated for extended-duration (30-42 days) thromboprophylaxis in this population. We review the efficacy and safety results from the 3 pivotal trials of extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. We performed a meta-analysis of these pivotal trials focusing on 6 VTE (efficacy) and three bleeding outcomes (safety). These results were integrated into a quantitative risk/benefit assessment. The trials evaluating extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients failed to establish clear efficacy and/or safety signals for each agent. Our meta-analysis shows that, as a class, DOACs have selective and partial extended-duration prophylactic activity in preventing VTE events. However, this is associated with a marked increase in the risk of various bleeding events. The risk/benefit analyses fail to show a consistent net clinical benefit of extended-duration DOAC prophylaxis in medically ill patients. At this time, the evidence of safe and effective extended-duration thromboprophylaxis with DOACs in this population is inconclusive.