Sample records for risk reduction estimation
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-07-01
... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...
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Estimating risk reduction required to break even in a health promotion program.
Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Goetzel, Ron Z; Santoro, Jan; Saenz, Betty-Jo; Eley, Christine; Gorsky, Bob
2004-01-01
To illustrate a formula to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on a corporate health promotion program. A case study design was implemented. Base year (2001) health risk and medical expenditure data from the company, along with published information on the relationships between employee demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures, were used to forecast demographics, risks, and expenditures for 2002 through 2011 and estimate the required amount of risk reduction. Motorola. 52,124 domestic employees. Demographics included age, gender, race, and job type. Health risks for 2001 were measured via health risk appraisal. Risks were noted as either high or low and related to exercise/eating habits, body weight, blood pressure, blood sugar levels, cholesterol levels, depression, stress, smoking/drinking habits, and seat belt use. Medical claims for 2001 were used to calculate medical expenditures per employee. Assuming a dollar 282 per employee program cost, Motorola employees would need to reduce their lifestyle-related health risks by 1.08% to 1.42% per year to break even on health promotion programming, depending upon the discount rate. Higher or lower program investments would change the risk reduction percentages. Employers can use information from published studies, along with their own data, to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on their health promotion programs.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wenzel, Tom P.
This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses inmore » these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.« less
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Lafeber, Melvin; Webster, Ruth; Visseren, Frank Lj; Bots, Michiel L; Grobbee, Diederick E; Spiering, W; Rodgers, Anthony
2016-08-01
Recent data indicate that fixed-dose combination (FDC) pills, polypills, can produce sizeable risk factor reductions. There are very few published data on the consistency of the effects of a polypill in different patient populations. It is unclear for example whether the effects of the polypill are mainly driven by the individuals with high individual risk factor levels. The aim of the present study is to examine whether baseline risk factor levels modify the effect of polypill treatment on low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, blood pressure (BP), calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. This paper describes a post-hoc analysis of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, simvastatin 20 mg, lisinopril 10 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated five-year risk for cardiovascular disease ≥7.5%. The outcomes considered were effect modification by baseline risk factor levels on change in LDL-cholesterol, systolic BP, calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. The mean LDL-cholesterol in the polypill group was 0.9 mmol/l (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-1.0) lower compared with the placebo group during follow-up. Those with a baseline LDL-cholesterol >3.6 mmol/l achieved a greater absolute LDL-cholesterol reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than patients with an LDL-cholesterol ≤3.6 mmol/l (-1.1 versus -0.6 mmol/l, respectively). The mean systolic BP was 10 mm Hg (95% CI: 8-12) lower in the polypill group. In participants with a baseline systolic BP >135 mm Hg the polypill resulted in a greater absolute systolic BP reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than participants with a systolic BP ≤ 135 mm Hg (-12 versus -7 mm Hg, respectively). Calculated from individual risk factor reductions, the mean cardiovascular relative risk reduction was 48% (95% CI: 43-52) in the polypill group. Both baseline LDL-cholesterol and estimated cardiovascular risk were significant modifiers of the estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction caused by the polypill. Adverse events did not appear to be related to baseline risk factor levels or the estimated cardiovascular risk. This study demonstrated that the effect of a cardiovascular polypill on risk factor levels is modified by the level of these risk factors. Groups defined by baseline LDL-cholesterol or systolic BP had large differences in risk factor reductions but only moderate differences in estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction, suggesting also that patients with mildly increased risk factor levels but an overall raised cardiovascular risk benefit from being treated with a polypill. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.
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Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom
2008-04-01
This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.
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Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z
2010-05-01
To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.
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L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J
2000-03-15
The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio (<5.5, 5.5 to <6.5, 6.5 to <7.5, > or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure (<90, > or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.
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Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M
2002-03-01
To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.
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Wenzel, Tom
2013-07-01
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT). The current NHTSA analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. LBNL's assessment of the analysis indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in the previous studies, and statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars. The effects three recent trends in vehicle designs and technologies have on societal fatality risk per VMT are estimated, and whether these changes might affect the relationship between vehicle mass and fatality risk in the future. Side airbags are found to reduce fatality risk in cars, but not necessarily light trucks or CUVs/minivans, struck in the side by another light-duty vehicle; reducing the number of fatalities in cars struck in the side is predicted to reduce the estimated detrimental effect of footprint reduction, but increase the detrimental effect of mass reduction, in cars on societal fatality risk. Better alignment of light truck bumpers with those of other vehicles appears to result in a statistically significant reduction in risk imposed on car occupants; however, reducing this type of fatality will likely have little impact on the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, shifting light truck drivers into safer, car-based vehicles, such as sedans, CUVs, and minivans, would result in larger reductions in societal fatalities than expected from even substantial reductions in the masses of light trucks. A strategy of shifting drivers from truck-based to car-based vehicles would reduce fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, while improving societal safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wenzel, Tom P.
In its 2012 report NHTSA simulated the effect four fleetwide mass reduction scenarios would have on the change in annual fatalities. NHTSA estimated that the most aggressive of these scenarios (reducing mass 5.2% in heavier light trucks and 2.6% in all other vehicles types except lighter cars) would result in a small reduction in societal fatalities. LBNL replicated the methodology NHTSA used to simulate six mass reduction scenarios, including the mass reductions recommended in the 2015 NRC committee report, and estimated in 2021 and 2025 by EPA in the TAR, using the updated data through 2012. The analysis indicates thatmore » the estimated x change in fatalities under each scenario based on the updated analysis is comparable to that in the 2012 analysis, but less beneficial or more detrimental than that in the 2016 analysis. For example, an across the board 100-lb reduction in mass would result in an estimated 157 additional annual fatalities based on the 2012 analysis, but would result in only an estimated 91 additional annual fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, and an additional 87 fatalities based on the current analysis. The mass reductions recommended by the 2015 NRC committee report6 would result in a 224 increase in annual fatalities in the 2012 analysis, a 344 decrease in annual fatalities in the 2016 analysis, and a 141 increase in fatalities in the current analysis. The mass reductions EPA estimated for 2025 in the TAR7 would result in a 203 decrease in fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, but an increase of 39 fatalities based on the current analysis. These results support NHTSA’s conclusion from its 2012 study that, when footprint is held fixed, “no judicious combination of mass reductions in the various classes of vehicles results in a statistically significant fatality increase and many potential combinations are safety-neutral as point estimates.”Like the previous NHTSA studies, this updated report concludes that the estimated effect of mass reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or footprint) reduction on risk” as shorthand for “the estimated change in risk as a function of its relationship to mass (or footprint) for vehicle models of recent design.”« less
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Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.
Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline
2007-04-01
We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.
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Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Downs, S H; Kelly, L
2016-01-01
The adoption of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) risk-based trading (RBT) schemes has the potential to reduce the risk of bTB spread. However, any scheme will have cost implications that need to be balanced against its likely success in reducing bTB. This paper describes the first stochastic quantitative model assessing the impact of the implementation of a cattle risk-based trading scheme to inform policy makers and contribute to cost-benefit analyses. A risk assessment for England and Wales was developed to estimate the number of infected cattle traded using historic movement data recorded between July 2010 and June 2011. Three scenarios were implemented: cattle traded with no RBT scheme in place, voluntary provision of the score and a compulsory, statutory scheme applying a bTB risk score to each farm. For each scenario, changes in trade were estimated due to provision of the risk score to potential purchasers. An estimated mean of 3981 bTB infected animals were sold to purchasers with no RBT scheme in place in one year, with 90% confidence the true value was between 2775 and 5288. This result is dependent on the estimated between herd prevalence used in the risk assessment which is uncertain. With the voluntary provision of the risk score by farmers, on average, 17% of movements was affected (purchaser did not wish to buy once the risk score was available), with a reduction of 23% in infected animals being purchased initially. The compulsory provision of the risk score in a statutory scheme resulted in an estimated mean change to 26% of movements, with a reduction of 37% in infected animals being purchased initially, increasing to a 53% reduction in infected movements from higher risk sellers (score 4 and 5). The estimated mean reduction in infected animals being purchased could be improved to 45% given a 10% reduction in risky purchase behaviour by farmers which may be achieved through education programmes, or to an estimated mean of 49% if a rule was implemented preventing farmers from the purchase of animals of higher risk than their own herd. Given voluntary trials currently taking place of a trading scheme, recommendations for future work include the monitoring of initial uptake and changes in the purchase patterns of farmers. Such data could be used to update the risk assessment to reduce uncertainty associated with model estimates. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wenzel, Tom
NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, bymore » 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the NHTSA data in slightly different ways to get a deeper understanding of the relationship between vehicle weight, footprint, and safety. The results of the NHTSA baseline results, and these alternative analyses, are summarized in Table ES.1; statistically significant estimates, based on the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, are shown in red in the tables. We found that NHTSA’s reasonable assumption that all vehicles will have ESC installed by 2017 in its baseline regression model slightly increases the estimated increase in risk from mass reduction in cars, but substantially decreases the estimated increase in risk from footprint reduction in all three vehicle types (Alternative 1 in Table ES.1; explained in more detail in Section 2.1 of this report). This is because NHTSA projects ESC to substantially reduce the number of fatalities in rollovers and crashes with stationary objects, and mass reduction appears to reduce risk, while footprint reduction appears to increase risk, in these types of crashes, particularly in cars and CUVs/minivans. A single regression model including all crash types results in slightly different estimates of the relationship between decreasing mass and risk, as shown in Alternative 2 in Table ES.1.« less
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Wenzel, Tom
2013-10-01
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can reduce mass as a strategy to increase their vehicles' fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without necessarily compromising societal safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Goetzel, Ron Z; Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Baase, Catherine M; Billotti, Gary M
2005-08-01
We sought to estimate the impact of corporate health-management and risk-reduction programs for The Dow Chemical Company by using a prospective return-on-investment (ROI) model. The risk and expenditure estimates were derived from multiple regression analyses showing relationships between worker demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures. A "break-even" scenario would require Dow to reduce each of 10 population health risks by 0.17% points per year over the course of 10 years. More successful efforts at reducing health risks in the population would produce a more significant ROI for the company. Findings from this study were incorporated into other components of a business case for health and productivity management, and these supported continued investments in health improvement programs designed to achieve risk reduction and cost savings.
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Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.
Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan
2017-03-01
When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.
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Potential health economic benefits of vitamin supplementation.
Bendich, A; Mallick, R; Leader, S
1997-01-01
This study used published relative risk estimates for birth defects, premature birth, and coronary heart disease associated with vitamin intake to project potential annual cost reductions in U.S. hospitalization charges. Epidemiological and intervention studies with relative risk estimates were identified via MEDLINE. Preventable fraction estimates were derived from data on the percentage of at-risk Americans with daily vitamin intake levels lower than those associated with disease risk reduction. Hospitalization rates were obtained from the 1992 National Hospital Discharge Survey. Charge data from the 1993 California Hospital Discharge Survey were adjusted to 1995 national charges using the medical component of the Consumer Price Index. Based on published risk reductions, annual hospital charges for birth defects, low-birth-weight premature births, and coronary heart disease could be reduced by about 40, 60, and 38%, respectively. For the conditions studied, nearly $20 billion in hospital charges were potentially avoidable with daily use of folic acid and zinc-containing multivitamins by all women of childbearing age and daily vitamin E supplementation by those over 50. PMID:9217432
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Mizuno, Yuko; Zhu, Julia; Crepaz, Nicole; Beer, Linda; Purcell, David W; Johnson, Christopher H; Valverde, Eduardo E; Skarbinski, Jacek
2014-01-28
Guidelines recommend risk-reduction counseling by HIV providers to all HIV-infected persons. Among HIV-infected adults receiving medical care in the United States, we estimated prevalence of exposure to three types of HIV/sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk-reduction interventions and described the characteristics of persons who received these interventions. Data were from the Medical Monitoring Project (MMP), a supplemental HIV surveillance system designed to produce nationally representative estimates of behavioral and clinical characteristics of HIV-infected adults receiving medical care in the United States. Descriptive analyses were conducted to estimate the exposure to each type of HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to assess associations between the selected correlates with each exposure variable. About 44% of participants reported a one-on-one conversation with a healthcare provider about HIV/STD prevention, 30% with a prevention program worker, 16% reported participation in a small group risk-reduction intervention, and 52% reported receiving at least one of the three interventions in the past 12 months. Minority race/ethnicity, low income, and risky sexual behavior consistently predicted greater intervention exposure. However, 39% of persons who reported risky sex did not receive any HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions. HIV-infected persons in care with fewer resources or those who engaged in risk behaviors were more likely to receive HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions. However, less than half of HIV-infected persons in care received HIV/STD prevention counseling from their provider, an intervention that has been shown to be effective and is supported by guidelines.
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Effect of electronic stability control on automobile crash risk.
Farmer, Charles
2004-12-01
Per vehicle crash involvement rates were compared for otherwise identical vehicle models with and without electronic stability control (ESC) systems. ESC was found to affect single-vehicle crashes to a greater extent than multiple-vehicle crashes, and crashes with fatal injuries to a greater extent than less severe crashes. Based on all police-reported crashes in 7 states over 2 years, ESC reduced single-vehicle crash involvement risk by approximately 41 percent (95 percent confidence limits 3348) and single-vehicle injury crash involvement risk by 41 percent (2752). This translates to an estimated 7 percent reduction in overall crash involvement risk (310) and a 9 percent reduction in overall injury crash involvement risk (314). Based on all fatal crashes in the United States over 3 years, ESC was found to have reduced single-vehicle fatal crash involvement risk by 56 percent (3968). This translates to an estimated 34 percent reduction in overall fatal crash involvement risk (2145).
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Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Huffman, Mark D.; Karmali, Kunal N.; Sanghavi, Darshak M.; Wright, Janet S.; Pelser, Colleen; Gulati, Martha; Masoudi, Frederick A.; Goff, David C.
2016-01-01
The Million Hearts Initiative has a goal of preventing 1 million heart attacks and strokes—the leading causes of mortality—through several public health and healthcare strategies by 2017. The American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology support the program. The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model was developed by Million Hearts and the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services as a strategy to asses a value-based payment approach toward reduction in 10-year predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by implementing cardiovascular preventive strategies to manage the “ABCS” (aspirin therapy in appropriate patients, blood pressure control, cholesterol management, and smoking cessation). The purpose of this special report is to describe the development and intended use of the Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool. The Million Hearts Tool reinforces and builds on the “2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk” by allowing clinicians to estimate baseline and updated 10-year ASCVD risk estimates for primary prevention patients adhering to the appropriate ABCS over time, alone or in combination. The tool provides updated risk estimates based on evidence from high-quality systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the ABCS therapies. This novel approach to personalized estimation of benefits from risk-reducing therapies in primary prevention may help target therapies to those in whom they will provide the greatest benefit, and serves as the basis for a Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services program designed to evaluate the Million Hearts Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model. PMID:27825770
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Jia, Yuling; Stone, Dave; Wang, Wentao; Schrlau, Jill; Tao, Shu; Massey Simonich, Staci L.
2011-01-01
Background The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games provided a unique case study to investigate the effect of source control measures on the reduction in air pollution, and associated inhalation cancer risk, in a Chinese megacity. Objectives We measured 17 carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and estimated the lifetime excess inhalation cancer risk during different periods of the Beijing Olympic Games, to assess the effectiveness of source control measures in reducing PAH-induced inhalation cancer risks. Methods PAH concentrations were measured in samples of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) collected during the Beijing Olympic Games, and the associated inhalation cancer risks were estimated using a point-estimate approach based on relative potency factors. Results We estimated the number of lifetime excess cancer cases due to exposure to the 17 carcinogenic PAHs [12 priority pollutant PAHs and five high-molecular-weight (302 Da) PAHs (MW 302 PAHs)] to range from 6.5 to 518 per million people for the source control period concentrations and from 12.2 to 964 per million people for the nonsource control period concentrations. This would correspond to a 46% reduction in estimated inhalation cancer risk due to source control measures, if these measures were sustained over time. Benzo[b]fluoranthene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, benzo[a]pyrene, and dibenzo[a,l]pyrene were the most carcinogenic PAH species evaluated. Total excess inhalation cancer risk would be underestimated by 23% if we did not include the five MW 302 PAHs in the risk calculation. Conclusions Source control measures, such as those imposed during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, can significantly reduce the inhalation cancer risk associated with PAH exposure in Chinese megacities similar to Beijing. MW 302 PAHs are a significant contributor to the estimated overall inhalation cancer risk. PMID:21632310
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Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Huffman, Mark D; Karmali, Kunal N; Sanghavi, Darshak M; Wright, Janet S; Pelser, Colleen; Gulati, Martha; Masoudi, Frederick A; Goff, David C
2017-03-28
The Million Hearts Initiative has a goal of preventing 1 million heart attacks and strokes-the leading causes of mortality-through several public health and healthcare strategies by 2017. The American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology support the program. The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model was developed by Million Hearts and the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services as a strategy to assess a value-based payment approach toward reduction in 10-year predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by implementing cardiovascular preventive strategies to manage the "ABCS" (aspirin therapy in appropriate patients, blood pressure control, cholesterol management, and smoking cessation). The purpose of this special report is to describe the development and intended use of the Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool. The Million Hearts Tool reinforces and builds on the "2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk" by allowing clinicians to estimate baseline and updated 10-year ASCVD risk estimates for primary prevention patients adhering to the appropriate ABCS over time, alone or in combination. The tool provides updated risk estimates based on evidence from high-quality systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the ABCS therapies. This novel approach to personalized estimation of benefits from risk-reducing therapies in primary prevention may help target therapies to those in whom they will provide the greatest benefit, and serves as the basis for a Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services program designed to evaluate the Million Hearts Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model. Copyright © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc., and the American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)
This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.
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Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A
2017-04-01
Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.
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Estimation of norovirus infection risks to consumers of wastewater-irrigated food crops eaten raw.
Mara, Duncan; Sleigh, Andrew
2010-03-01
A quantitative microbial risk analysis-Monte Carlo method was used to estimate norovirus infection risks to consumers of wastewater-irrigated lettuce. Using the same assumptions as used in the 2006 WHO guidelines for the safe use of wastewater in agriculture, a norovirus reduction of 6 log units was required to achieve a norovirus infection risk of approximately 10(-3) per person per year (pppy), but for a lower consumption of lettuce (40-48 g per week vs. 350 g per week) the required reduction was 5 log units. If the tolerable additional disease burden is increased from a DALY (disability-adjusted life year) loss of 10(-6) pppy (the value used in the WHO guidelines) to 10(-5) pppy, the required pathogen reduction is one order of magnitude lower. Reductions of 4-6 log units can be achieved by very simple partial treatment (principally settling to achieve a 1-log unit reduction) supplemented by very reliable post-treatment health-protection control measures such as pathogen die-off (1-2 log units), produce washing in cold water (1 log unit) and produce disinfection (3 log units).
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Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey
Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi
2014-01-01
The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150
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Goetzel, Ron Z.; Tabrizi, Maryam; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Brockbank, Claire v. S.; Stinson, Kaylan; Trotter, Margo; Newman, Lee S.
2015-01-01
Objective To determine whether changes in health risks for workers in small businesses can produce medical and productivity cost savings. Methods A 1-year pre- and posttest study tracked changes in 10 modifiable health risks for 2458 workers at 121 Colorado businesses that participated in a comprehensive worksite health promotion program. Risk reductions were entered into a return-on-investment (ROI) simulation model. Results Reductions were recorded in 10 risk factors examined, including obesity (−2.0%), poor eating habits (−5.8%), poor physical activity (−6.5%), tobacco use (−1.3%), high alcohol consumption (−1.7%), high stress (−3.5%), depression (−2.3%), high blood pressure (−0.3%), high total cholesterol (−0.9%), and high blood glucose (−0.2%). The ROI model estimated medical and productivity savings of $2.03 for every $1.00 invested. Conclusions Pooled data suggest that small businesses can realize a positive ROI from effective risk reduction programs. PMID:24806569
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Thakral, Manu; Walker, Rod L; Saunders, Kathleen; Shortreed, Susan M; Parchman, Michael; Hansen, Ryan N; Ludman, Evette; Sherman, Karen J; Dublin, Sascha; Von Korff, Michael
2018-01-01
Dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives have been recommended to reduce opioid-related risks among patients receiving chronic opioid therapy (COT), but questions remain over whether these initiatives worsen pain control and quality of life. In 2014 to 2015, we interviewed 1,588 adult COT patients within a health care system in Washington State and compared those who received dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives in primary care clinics (intervention) with patients in comparable health care settings without initiatives (control). The primary outcomes were pain assessed using the pain, enjoyment, and general activity (PEG) scale, a 3-item scale to assess global pain intensity and interference, with secondary measures including depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-8 scale). Generalized estimating equations for linear regression models were used to estimate differences in mean scores between intervention and control sites. Estimated differences, adjusted for patient characteristics and weighted for nonresponse, between patients at intervention and control clinics were not clinically significant for the PEG (-.03, 95% confidence interval = -.25 to .19) or Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (-.64, 95% confidence interval = -1.19 to -.08). We found no evidence that COT patients in clinics with dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives had clinically meaningful differences in pain intensity, interference with activities and enjoyment of life, or depressive symptoms compared with control health care settings. This article evaluates the effect of dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives, such as those recently recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to reduce risks associated with COT on global pain and interference, depressive symptoms, and perceived pain relief and bothersomeness of side effects. Copyright © 2017 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Hakama, Matti; Moss, Sue M; Stenman, Ulf-Hakan; Roobol, Monique J; Zappa, Marco; Carlsson, Sigrid; Randazzo, Marco; Nelen, Vera; Hugosson, Jonas
2017-06-01
Objectives To calculate design-corrected estimates of the effect of screening on prostate cancer mortality by centre in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Setting The ERSPC has shown a 21% reduction in prostate cancer mortality in men invited to screening with follow-up truncated at 13 years. Centres either used pre-consent randomisation (effectiveness design) or post-consent randomisation (efficacy design). Methods In six centres (three effectiveness design, three efficacy design) with follow-up until the end of 2010, or maximum 13 years, the effect of screening was estimated as both effectiveness (mortality reduction in the target population) and efficacy (reduction in those actually screened). Results The overall crude prostate cancer mortality risk ratio in the intervention arm vs control arm for the six centres was 0.79 ranging from a 14% increase to a 38% reduction. The risk ratio was 0.85 in centres with effectiveness design and 0.73 in those with efficacy design. After correcting for design, overall efficacy was 27%, 24% in pre-consent and 29% in post-consent centres, ranging between a 12% increase and a 52% reduction. Conclusion The estimated overall effect of screening in attenders (efficacy) was a 27% reduction in prostate cancer mortality at 13 years' follow-up. The variation in efficacy between centres was greater than the range in risk ratio without correction for design. The centre-specific variation in the mortality reduction could not be accounted for by the randomisation method.
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An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Robinson, Ronald R.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Conkin, Johnny
1999-01-01
Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.
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Reduction of risk of dying from tobacco-related diseases after quitting smoking in Italy.
Carreras, Giulia; Pistelli, Francesco; Falcone, Franco; Carrozzi, Laura; Martini, Andrea; Viegi, Giovanni; Gorini, Giuseppe
2015-01-01
The aims of this paper are to compute the risks of dying of ischemic heart disease (IHD), lung cancer (LC), stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for Italian smokers by gender, age and daily number of cigarettes smoked, and to estimate the benefit of stopping smoking in terms of risk reduction. Life tables by sex and smoking status were computed for each smoking-related disease based on Italian smoking data, and risk charts with 10-year probabilities of death were computed for never, current and former smokers. Men aged 45-49 years, current smokers, have a 8, 10, 3 and 1 in 1,000 chance of dying of IHD, LC, stroke and COPD, respectively, whereas women with the same characteristics have a 2, 6, 3 and 1 in 1,000 chance, respectively, for all smokers combined, i.e., independent of the smoking intensity. The risk reduction rates from quitting smoking are remarkable: a man who quits smoking at 45-49 years can reduce the risk of dying of IHD, LC, stroke and COPD in the next 10 years by 43%, 53%, 57% and 55%, respectively; a woman by 49%, 49%, 59% and 57%, respectively. Estimates of risk reduction by quitting smoking are useful to provide a sounder scientific basis for public health messages and clinical advice.
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Reducing Contingency through Sampling at the Luckey FUSRAP Site - 13186
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Frothingham, David; Barker, Michelle; Buechi, Steve
2013-07-01
Typically, the greatest risk in developing accurate cost estimates for the remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste sites is the uncertainty in the estimated volume of contaminated media requiring remediation. Efforts to address this risk in the remediation cost estimate can result in large cost contingencies that are often considered unacceptable when budgeting for site cleanups. Such was the case for the Luckey Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site near Luckey, Ohio, which had significant uncertainty surrounding the estimated volume of site soils contaminated with radium, uranium, thorium, beryllium, and lead. Funding provided by the American Recoverymore » and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) allowed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to conduct additional environmental sampling and analysis at the Luckey Site between November 2009 and April 2010, with the objective to further delineate the horizontal and vertical extent of contaminated soils in order to reduce the uncertainty in the soil volume estimate. Investigative work included radiological, geophysical, and topographic field surveys, subsurface borings, and soil sampling. Results from the investigative sampling were used in conjunction with Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software to update the contaminated soil volume estimate for the site. This updated volume estimate was then used to update the project cost-to-complete estimate using the USACE Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis process, which develops cost contingencies based on project risks. An investment of $1.1 M of ARRA funds for additional investigative work resulted in a reduction of 135,000 in-situ cubic meters (177,000 in-situ cubic yards) in the estimated base volume estimate. This refinement of the estimated soil volume resulted in a $64.3 M reduction in the estimated project cost-to-complete, through a reduction in the uncertainty in the contaminated soil volume estimate and the associated contingency costs. (authors)« less
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Trials have provided conflicting estimates of the risk of gastrointestinal illness attributable to tap water. To estimate this risk in an Iowa community with a well-run water utility with microbiologically challenged source water, the authors of this 2000-2002 study randomly assi...
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Effects of exposure estimation errors on estimated exposure-response relations for PM2.5.
Cox, Louis Anthony Tony
2018-07-01
Associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure concentrations and a wide variety of undesirable outcomes, from autism and auto theft to elderly mortality, suicide, and violent crime, have been widely reported. Influential articles have argued that reducing National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 is desirable to reduce these outcomes. Yet, other studies have found that reducing black smoke and other particulate matter by as much as 70% and dozens of micrograms per cubic meter has not detectably affected all-cause mortality rates even after decades, despite strong, statistically significant positive exposure concentration-response (C-R) associations between them. This paper examines whether this disconnect between association and causation might be explained in part by ignored estimation errors in estimated exposure concentrations. We use EPA air quality monitor data from the Los Angeles area of California to examine the shapes of estimated C-R functions for PM2.5 when the true C-R functions are assumed to be step functions with well-defined response thresholds. The estimated C-R functions mistakenly show risk as smoothly increasing with concentrations even well below the response thresholds, thus incorrectly predicting substantial risk reductions from reductions in concentrations that do not affect health risks. We conclude that ignored estimation errors obscure the shapes of true C-R functions, including possible thresholds, possibly leading to unrealistic predictions of the changes in risk caused by changing exposures. Instead of estimating improvements in public health per unit reduction (e.g., per 10 µg/m 3 decrease) in average PM2.5 concentrations, it may be essential to consider how interventions change the distributions of exposure concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Yu, Chingching; Coleman, Justin
This report provides a framework for assessing the benefits of seismic isolation and exercises the framework on a Generic Department of Energy Nuclear Facility (GDNF). These benefits are (1) reduction in the risk of unacceptable seismic performance and a dramatic reduction in the probability of unacceptable performance at beyond-design basis shaking, and (2) a reduction in capital cost at sites with moderate to high seismic hazard. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimates of overnight capital cost for the GDNF.
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The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.
Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M
2016-10-01
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shepherd, Curt; Grimsrud, Kristine; Berrens, Robert P.
2009-10-01
The accumulation of fire fuels in forests throughout the world contributes significantly to the severity of wildfires. To combat the threat of wildfire, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), US federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of National Fire Plan (NFP) expenditures for fuel reduction treatments in northern New Mexico (USA). Estimation results from a set of Generalized Estimating Equations models are mixed with respect to risk reduction hypotheses, and also raise issues regarding how risk reduction should be defined for a region characterized by both pockets of urban sprawl into the WUI and large areas of chronic rural poverty. Program preferences for project funding under the federal Collaborative Forest Restoration Program in New Mexico are shown to be distinctly different (e.g., exhibiting greater concern for social equity) than for other NFP-funded projects.
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Corso, Phaedra S.; Ingels, Justin B.; Roldos, M. Isabel
2013-01-01
Estimating the benefits of preventing child maltreatment (CM) is essential for policy makers to determine whether there are significant returns on investment from interventions to prevent CM. The aim of this study was to estimate the benefits of preventing CM deaths in an Ecuadorian population, and to compare the results to a similar study in a US population. The study used the contingent valuation method to elicit respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a 1 in 100,000 reduction in the risk of CM mortality. After adjusting for differences in purchasing power, the WTP to prevent the CM mortality risk reduction in the Ecuador population was $237 and the WTP for the same risk reduction in the US population was $175. In the pooled analysis, WTP for a reduction in CM mortality was significantly impacted by country (p = 0.03), history of CM (p = 0.007), payment mechanism (p < 0.001), confidence in response (p = 0.014), and appropriateness of the payment mechanism (p < 0.001). These findings suggest that estimating benefits from one culture may not be transferable to another, and that low- and middle-income countries, such as Ecuador, may be better served by developing their own benefits estimates for use in future benefit-cost analyses of interventions designed to prevent CM. PMID:23538730
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chavez, E.
2015-12-01
Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.
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Mayer, Flavia; Di Pucchio, Alessandra; Lacorte, Eleonora; Bacigalupo, Ilaria; Marzolini, Fabrizio; Ferrante, Gianluigi; Minardi, Valentina; Masocco, Maria; Canevelli, Marco; Di Fiandra, Teresa; Vanacore, Nicola
2018-01-01
Up to 53.7% of all cases of dementia are assumed to be due to Alzheimer disease (AD), while 15.8% are considered to be due to vascular dementia (VaD). In Europe, about 3 million cases of AD could be due to 7 potentially modifiable risk factors: diabetes, midlife hypertension and/or obesity, physical inactivity, depression, smoking, and low educational level. To estimate the number of VaD cases in Europe and the number of AD and VaD cases in Italy attributable to these 7 potentially modifiable risk factors. Assuming the nonindependence of the 7 risk factors, the adjusted combined population attributable risk (PAR) was estimated for AD and VaD. In Europe, adjusted combined PAR was 31.4% for AD and 37.8% for VaD. The total number of attributable cases was 3,033,000 for AD and 873,000 for VaD. In Italy, assuming a 20% reduction of the prevalence of each risk factor, adjusted combined PAR decreased from 45.2 to 38.9% for AD and from 53.1 to 46.6% for VaD, implying a 6.4 and 6.5% reduction in the prevalence of AD and VaD, respectively. A relevant reduction of AD and VaD cases in Europe and Italy could be obtained through primary prevention.
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Financial risk protection from social health insurance.
Barnes, Kayleigh; Mukherji, Arnab; Mullen, Patrick; Sood, Neeraj
2017-09-01
This paper estimates the impact of social health insurance on financial risk by utilizing data from a natural experiment created by the phased roll-out of a social health insurance program for the poor in India. We estimate the distributional impact of insurance on of out-of-pocket costs and incorporate these results with a stylized expected utility model to compute associated welfare effects. We adjust the standard model, accounting for conditions of developing countries by incorporating consumption floors, informal borrowing, and asset selling which allow us to separate the value of financial risk reduction from consumption smoothing and asset protection. Results show that insurance reduces out-of-pocket costs, particularly in higher quantiles of the distribution. We find reductions in the frequency and amount of money borrowed for health reasons. Finally, we find that the value of financial risk reduction outweighs total per household costs of the insurance program by two to five times. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Su, Shih-Yung; Lee, Wen-Chung; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Wang, Hao-Chien; Su, Ta-Chen; Jeng, Jiann-Shing; Tu, Yu-Kang; Liao, Shu-Fen; Lu, Tzu-Pin; Chien, Kuo-Liong
2017-01-01
The aim of the 25 by 25 goal is to reduce mortality from premature non-communicable diseases by 25% before 2025. Studies have evaluated the 25 by 25 goal in many countries, but not in Taiwan. The aim of this study was to estimate the 25 by 25 goal for premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Taiwan. We applied the age-period-cohort model to project the incidence of premature death from cardiovascular disease from 2015 to 2024 and used the population attributable fraction to estimate the contributions of targeted risk factors. The probability of death was used to estimate the percent change. The percent change in business-as-usual trend during 2010-2024 was only a 6% (range 1.7-10.7%) lower risk of premature mortality from cardiovascular disease among men. The greatest reduction in the risk of mortality occurred with a 30% reduction in the prevalence of smoking; however, there was only a 14.5% (10.6-18.3%) decrease in percent change and in the corresponding number of men (3706: range 3543-3868) who were prevented from dying. More than a 25% reduction in the percent change of premature cardiovascular disease mortality among women was achieved without control of any risk factor. To reach a 25% reduction in men before 2025, there needs to be a 70% reduction in the prevalence of smoking to reduce mortality by 26.2% (22.9-29.3%). Cigarette smoking is the primary target in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Through the stringent control of smoking, the goal of a 25% reduction in premature mortality from cardiovascular disease may be achieved before 2025 in Taiwan.
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Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.
Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight
2005-01-01
We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...
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Raghavan, Sridharan; Porneala, Bianca; McKeown, Nicola; Fox, Caroline S.; Dupuis, Josée; Meigs, James B.
2015-01-01
Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes mellitus in parents is a strong determinant of diabetes risk in their offspring. We hypothesise that offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes is mediated by metabolic risk factors. Methods We studied initially non-diabetic participants of the Framingham Offspring Study. Metabolic risk was estimated using beta cell corrected insulin response (CIR), HOMA-IR or a count of metabolic syndrome components (metabolic syndrome score [MSS]). Dietary risk and physical activity were estimated using questionnaire responses. Genetic risk score (GRS) was estimated as the count of 62 type 2 diabetes risk alleles. The outcome of incident diabetes in offspring was examined across levels of parental diabetes exposure, accounting for sibling correlation and adjusting for age, sex and putative mediators. The proportion mediated was estimated by comparing regression coefficients for parental diabetes with (βadj) and without (βunadj) adjustments for CIR, HOMA-IR, MSS and GRS (percentage mediated = 1 – βadj / βunadj). Results Metabolic factors mediated 11% of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.96. GRS mediated 9% of risk, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.99. Conclusions/interpretation Metabolic risk factors partially mediated offspring type 2 diabetes risk conferred by parental diabetes to a similar magnitude as genetic risk. However, a substantial proportion of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes remains unexplained by metabolic factors, genetic risk, diet and physical activity, suggesting that important familial influences on diabetes risk remain undiscovered. PMID:25619168
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Sokolova, Ekaterina; Petterson, Susan R; Dienus, Olaf; Nyström, Fredrik; Lindgren, Per-Eric; Pettersson, Thomas J R
2015-09-01
Norovirus contamination of drinking water sources is an important cause of waterborne disease outbreaks. Knowledge on pathogen concentrations in source water is needed to assess the ability of a drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) to provide safe drinking water. However, pathogen enumeration in source water samples is often not sufficient to describe the source water quality. In this study, the norovirus concentrations were characterised at the contamination source, i.e. in sewage discharges. Then, the transport of norovirus within the water source (the river Göta älv in Sweden) under different loading conditions was simulated using a hydrodynamic model. Based on the estimated concentrations in source water, the required reduction of norovirus at the DWTP was calculated using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The required reduction was compared with the estimated treatment performance at the DWTP. The average estimated concentration in source water varied between 4.8×10(2) and 7.5×10(3) genome equivalents L(-1); and the average required reduction by treatment was between 7.6 and 8.8 Log10. The treatment performance at the DWTP was estimated to be adequate to deal with all tested loading conditions, but was heavily dependent on chlorine disinfection, with the risk of poor reduction by conventional treatment and slow sand filtration. To our knowledge, this is the first article to employ discharge-based QMRA, combined with hydrodynamic modelling, in the context of drinking water. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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[Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].
Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E
2011-01-01
The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease).
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Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tenkate, Thomas D.
1998-01-01
Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…
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Dinitz, Laura B.
2008-01-01
With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.
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RISK PREFERENCES USING A LOTTERY REFERENCE METRIC
The purpose of the study is to improve valuation estimates of the benefits of fatal cancer risk reductions. The existing literature on mortality risk values has focused almost exclusively on accidental and immediate deaths; however, it is unclear how applicable these values are ...
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Valuing Reductions in Fatal Illness Risks: Implications of Recent Research.
Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K
2016-08-01
The value of mortality risk reductions, conventionally expressed as the value per statistical life, is an important determinant of the net benefits of many government policies. US regulators currently rely primarily on studies of fatal injuries, raising questions about whether different values might be appropriate for risks associated with fatal illnesses. Our review suggests that, despite the substantial expansion of the research base in recent years, few US studies of illness-related risks meet criteria for quality, and those that do yield similar values to studies of injury-related risks. Given this result, combining the findings of these few studies with the findings of the more robust literature on injury-related risks appears to provide a reasonable range of estimates for application in regulatory analysis. Our review yields estimates ranging from about $4.2 million to $13.7 million with a mid-point of $9.0 million (2013 dollars). Although the studies we identify differ from those that underlie the values currently used by Federal agencies, the resulting estimates are remarkably similar, suggesting that there is substantial consensus emerging on the values applicable to the general US population. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Minority households’ willingness to pay for public and private wildfire risk reduction in Florida
Armando González-Cabán; José J. Sánchez
2017-01-01
The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk-reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class model allowed us to determine if there is a difference in wildfire...
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2011-01-01
Background A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence. Methods Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used. Results Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time. Conclusions Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available. PMID:21689461
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Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.
2017-12-01
The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.
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Stock, David; Paszat, Lawrence F; Rabeneck, Linda
2016-07-01
Colonoscopy has been demonstrated to be effective in colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reduction, although current screening guidelines have yet to be evaluated. We assessed the protective benefit of colonoscopy within the previous 10 years and whether this effect is maintained with age. We used administrative data to compare risk of CRC death (CCD) across colonoscopy utilization among a population-wide cohort comprising individuals aged 60 to 80 years (N = 1,509,423). Baseline and time-dependent colonoscopy exposure models were assessed in the context of competing "other causes of death" (OCDs). Cumulative incidence of CCD and OCD across colonoscopy exposure, over follow-up, was estimated. Relative hazards were computed by age strata (60-69 years, 70-74 years, 75+ years) and proximal and distal cancer subsites. At least 1 colonoscopy during 10 years before baseline was estimated to provide a 51% reduced hazard of CCD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45-0.54) over the following 8 years. When colonoscopy was modeled as a time-dependent covariate, the risk of CCD was further diminished (multivariable-adjusted HR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.33-0.38). Stratified analyses suggested moderately attenuated CCD risk reduction among the oldest age group; however, consideration of OCDs suggest that this is related to competing risks. CCD risk reduction related to colonoscopy was lower for proximal cancers. Colonoscopy within the previous 10 years provides substantial protective benefit for average-risk individuals over 60 years. CCD risk reduction may be maintained well beyond 74 years, a common upper age limit recommended by screening guidelines. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Toward risk reduction: predicting the future burden of occupational cancer.
Hutchings, Sally; Rushton, Lesley
2011-05-01
Interventions to reduce cancers related to certain occupations should be evidence-based. The authors have developed a method for forecasting the future burden of occupational cancer to inform strategies for risk reduction. They project risk exposure periods, accounting for cancer latencies of up to 50 years, forward in time to estimate attributable fractions for a series of forecast target years given past and projected exposure trends and under targeted reduction scenarios. Adjustment factors for changes in exposed numbers and levels are applied in estimation intervals within the risk-exposure periods. The authors illustrate the methods by using a range of scenarios for reducing lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica. Attributable fractions for lung cancer due to respirable crystalline silica could be potentially reduced from 2.07% in 2010 to nearly 0% by 2060, depending on the timing and success of interventions. Focusing on achieving compliance with current exposure standards in small industries can be more effective than setting standards at a lower level. The method can be used to highlight high-risk carcinogens, industries, and occupations. It is adaptable for other countries and other exposure situations in the general environment and can be extended to include socioeconomic impact assessment.
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Dose and risk in diagnostic radiology: How big How little Lecture Number 16
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Webster, E.W.
1992-01-01
This lecture is divided into two parts: dose and risk. The dose segment is technical and noncontroversial since it deals with straightforward measurements or calculations which do not depend on unproven hypotheses. Some conflicting contributions of low dose epidemiological studies to the appraisal of risk are briefly presented. Attention is focused on the following: dose reduction in radiography; dose reduction in fluoroscopy; limitations of dose reduction; estimated radiation risks for diagnostic radiology examinations; excess breast cancer following X-ray examinations for scoliosis; dose-response relation for human mammary cancer; lung cancer from protracted X-irradiation; leukemia and diagnostic X-ray exposure; and thyroid cancermore » after diagnostic dose of I-131.« less
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Assessment of PM10 pollution level and required source emission reduction in Belgrade area.
Todorović, Marija N; Perišić, Mirjana D; Kuzmanoski, Maja M; Stojić, Andreja M; Sostarić, Andrej I; Mijić, Zoran R; Rajšić, Slavica F
2015-01-01
The aim of this study was to assess PM10 pollution level and estimate required source emission reduction in Belgrade area, the second largest urban center in the Balkans. Daily mass concentrations and trace metal content (As, Cd, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb) of PM10 were evaluated for three air quality monitoring sites of different types: urban-traffic (Slavija), suburban (Lazarevac) and rural (Grabovac) under the industrial influence, during the period of 2012-13. Noncompliance with current Air Quality Standards (AQS) was noticeable: annual means were higher than AQS at Slavija and Lazarevac, and daily frequency threshold was exceeded at all three locations. Annual means of As at Lazarevac were about four times higher than the target concentration, which could be attributed to the proximity of coal-fired power plants, and dust resuspension from coal basin and nearby ash landfills. Additionally, levels of Ni and Cr were significantly higher than in other European cities. Carcinogenic health risk of inhabitants' exposure to trace metals was assessed as well. Cumulative cancer risk exceeded the upper limit of acceptable US EPA range at two sites, with Cr and As as the major contributors. To estimate source emission reduction, required to meet AQS, lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 probability distribution, functions (PDF) were used to fit daily PM10 concentrations. Based on the rollback equation and best fitting PDF, estimated reduction was within the range of 28-98%. Finally, the required reduction obtained using two-parameter exponential distribution suggested that risks associated to accidental releases of pollutants should be of greater concern.
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El-Bassel, Nabila; Jemmott, John B; Bellamy, Scarlett L; Pequegnat, Willo; Wingood, Gina M; Wyatt, Gail E; Landis, J Richard; Remien, Robert H
2016-06-01
Targeting couples is a promising behavioral HIV risk-reduction strategy, but the mechanisms underlying the effects of such interventions are unknown. We report secondary analyses testing whether Social-Cognitive-Theory variables mediated the Eban HIV-risk-reduction intervention's effects on condom-use outcomes. In a multisite randomized controlled trial conducted in four US cities, 535 African American HIV-serodiscordant couples were randomized to the Eban HIV risk-reduction intervention or attention-matched control intervention. Outcomes were proportion condom-protected sex, consistent condom use, and frequency of unprotected sex measured pre-, immediately post-, and 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Potential mediators included Social-Cognitive-Theory variables: outcome expectancies and self-efficacy. Mediation analyses using the product-of-coefficients approach in a generalized-estimating-equations framework revealed that condom-use outcome expectancy, partner-reaction outcome expectancy, intention, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication improved post-intervention and mediated intervention-induced improvements in condom-use outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of targeting outcome expectancies, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication in couples-level HIV risk-reduction interventions.
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Income Elasticity Literature Review
Following advice from the SAB Council, when estimating the economic value of reductions in air pollution-related mortality and morbidity risk, EPA accounts for the effect of personal income on the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes. These income grow...
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How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Merz, B.
2017-12-01
Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.
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Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.
Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei
2013-08-15
This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Schizophrenia--A High-Risk Factor for Suicides: Clues to Risk Reduction.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Caldwell, Constance B.; Gottesman, Irving I.
1992-01-01
Notes that suicide is chief cause of premature death among schizophrenic persons, with lifetime incidence of suicide for patients with schizophrenia at 10-13% compared to general population estimate of 1%. Discusses salient risk factors for suicide in schizophrenics and types of especially vulnerable patients identified by research. Notes that…
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Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John
2013-01-01
This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…
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Gene variant linked to lung cancer risk
A variation of the gene NFKB1, called rs4648127, is associated with an estimated 44 percent reduction in lung cancer risk. When this information, derived from samples obtained as part of a large NCI-sponsored prevention clinical trial, was compared with d
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Effects of radon mitigation vs smoking cessation in reducing radon-related risk of lung cancer.
Mendez, D; Warner, K E; Courant, P N
1998-01-01
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to provide smokers with information on the relative benefits of mitigating radon and quitting smoking in reducing radon-related lung cancer risk. METHODS: The standard radon risk model, linked with models characterizing residential radon exposure and patterns of moving to new homes, was used to estimate the risk reduction produced by remediating high-radon homes, quitting smoking, or both. RESULTS: Quitting smoking reduces lung cancer risk from radon more than does reduction of radon exposure itself. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers should understand that, in addition to producing other health benefits, quitting smoking dominates strategies to deal with the problem posed by radon. PMID:9585753
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Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M
2017-01-01
There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Letourneau, Elizabeth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Sheidow, Ashli J.; Mauro, Pia M.
2016-01-01
There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N = 45) or usual services (US; N = 60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. PMID:27629581
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Automated Estimation Of Software-Development Costs
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Roush, George B.; Reini, William
1993-01-01
COSTMODL is automated software development-estimation tool. Yields significant reduction in risk of cost overruns and failed projects. Accepts description of software product developed and computes estimates of effort required to produce it, calendar schedule required, and distribution of effort and staffing as function of defined set of development life-cycle phases. Written for IBM PC(R)-compatible computers.
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Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A.; Wilkinson, Bethany E.; Wallenstein, Gene V.
2017-01-01
Abstract Objectives. RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Methods. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. Results. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Conclusion. Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. PMID:28460083
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Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Ohashi, Yasuo; Ito, Hideki; Saito, Yasushi; Ishikawa, Toshitsugu; Akishita, Masahiro; Shibata, Taro; Nakamura, Haruo; Orimo, Hajime
2006-01-01
Background: The Pravastatin Anti-atherosclerosis Trial in the Elderly (PATE) found that the prevalence of cardiovascular events (CVEs) was significantly lower with standard-dose (10–20 mg/d) pravastatin treatment compared with low-dose (5 mg/d) pravastatin treatment in elderly (aged ⩾ 60 years) Japanese patients with hypercholesterolemia. Small differences in on-treatment total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels between the 2 dose groups in the PATE study were associated with significant differences in CVE prevalence. However, the reasons for these differences have not been determined. How sex and age differences influence the effectiveness of pravastatin also remains unclear. Objectives: The aims of this study were to determine the relationship between reduction in LDL-C level and CVE risk reduction in the PATE study and to assess the effects of sex and age on the effectiveness of pravastatin treatment (assessed using CVE risk reduction). Methods: In this post hoc analysis, Cox regression analysis was performed to study the relationship between on-treatment (pravastatin 5–20 mg/d) LDL-C level and CVE risk reduction using age, sex, smoking status, presence of diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level as adjustment factors. To explore risk reduction due to unspecified mechanisms other than LDLrC reduction, an estimated Kaplan-Meier curve from the Cox regression analysis was calculated and compared with the empirical (observed) Kaplan-Meier curve. Results: A total of 665 patients (527 women, 138 men; mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.7] years) were enrolled in PATE and were followed up for a mean of 3.9 years (range, 3–5 years). Of those patients, 50 men and 173 women were ⩾75 years of age. Data from 619 patients were included in the present analysis. In the calculation of model-based Kaplan-Meier curves, data from an additional 32 patients were excluded from the LDL-C analysis because there were no data on pretreatment LDL levels; hence, the data from 587 patients were analyzed. A reduction in LDL-C level of 20 mg/dL was associated with an estimated CVE risk reduction of 24.7% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.753; 95% CI, 0.625-0.907; P = 0.003). Risk was reduced by 22.2% in patients aged <75 years (HR = 0.778; 95% CI, 0.598–1.013; P = NS) and 29.9% in patients aged ⩾75 years (HR = 0.701; 95% CI, 0.526–0.934; P = 0.015). The risk reductions were 19.8% in women (HR = 0.802; 95% CI, 0.645–0.996; P = 0.046) and 35.8% in men (HR = 0.642; 95% CI, 0.453–0.911; P = 0.013). The risk reduction was 32.4% in patients without a history of CVD at enrollment (HR = 0.676; 95% CI, 0.525–0.870; P = 0.002) and 15.1% in those with a history of CVD (HR = 0.849; 95% CI, 0.630–1.143; P= NS). The estimated Kaplan-Meier curve strongly suggested that the effects of pravastatin were only partially associated with changes in LDLrC level. Conclusions: The results from this post hoc analysis suggest that pravastatin 5 to 20 mg/d might elicit CVE risk reduction by mechanisms other than cholesterol-lowering effects alone. They also suggest that pravastatin treatment might be effective in reducing the risk for CVEs in both female and male patients aged ⩾75 years. PMID:24678100
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Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Ohashi, Yasuo; Ito, Hideki; Saito, Yasushi; Ishikawa, Toshitsugu; Akishita, Masahiro; Shibata, Taro; Nakamura, Haruo; Orimo, Hajime
2006-07-01
The Pravastatin Anti-atherosclerosis Trial in the Elderly (PATE) found that the prevalence of cardiovascular events (CVEs) was significantly lower with standard-dose (10-20 mg/d) pravastatin treatment compared with low-dose (5 mg/d) pravastatin treatment in elderly (aged ⩾ 60 years) Japanese patients with hypercholesterolemia. Small differences in on-treatment total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels between the 2 dose groups in the PATE study were associated with significant differences in CVE prevalence. However, the reasons for these differences have not been determined. How sex and age differences influence the effectiveness of pravastatin also remains unclear. The aims of this study were to determine the relationship between reduction in LDL-C level and CVE risk reduction in the PATE study and to assess the effects of sex and age on the effectiveness of pravastatin treatment (assessed using CVE risk reduction). In this post hoc analysis, Cox regression analysis was performed to study the relationship between on-treatment (pravastatin 5-20 mg/d) LDL-C level and CVE risk reduction using age, sex, smoking status, presence of diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level as adjustment factors. To explore risk reduction due to unspecified mechanisms other than LDLrC reduction, an estimated Kaplan-Meier curve from the Cox regression analysis was calculated and compared with the empirical (observed) Kaplan-Meier curve. A total of 665 patients (527 women, 138 men; mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.7] years) were enrolled in PATE and were followed up for a mean of 3.9 years (range, 3-5 years). Of those patients, 50 men and 173 women were ⩾75 years of age. Data from 619 patients were included in the present analysis. In the calculation of model-based Kaplan-Meier curves, data from an additional 32 patients were excluded from the LDL-C analysis because there were no data on pretreatment LDL levels; hence, the data from 587 patients were analyzed. A reduction in LDL-C level of 20 mg/dL was associated with an estimated CVE risk reduction of 24.7% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.753; 95% CI, 0.625-0.907; P = 0.003). Risk was reduced by 22.2% in patients aged <75 years (HR = 0.778; 95% CI, 0.598-1.013; P = NS) and 29.9% in patients aged ⩾75 years (HR = 0.701; 95% CI, 0.526-0.934; P = 0.015). The risk reductions were 19.8% in women (HR = 0.802; 95% CI, 0.645-0.996; P = 0.046) and 35.8% in men (HR = 0.642; 95% CI, 0.453-0.911; P = 0.013). The risk reduction was 32.4% in patients without a history of CVD at enrollment (HR = 0.676; 95% CI, 0.525-0.870; P = 0.002) and 15.1% in those with a history of CVD (HR = 0.849; 95% CI, 0.630-1.143; P= NS). The estimated Kaplan-Meier curve strongly suggested that the effects of pravastatin were only partially associated with changes in LDLrC level. The results from this post hoc analysis suggest that pravastatin 5 to 20 mg/d might elicit CVE risk reduction by mechanisms other than cholesterol-lowering effects alone. They also suggest that pravastatin treatment might be effective in reducing the risk for CVEs in both female and male patients aged ⩾75 years.
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Validation of a novel air toxic risk model with air monitoring.
Pratt, Gregory C; Dymond, Mary; Ellickson, Kristie; Thé, Jesse
2012-01-01
Three modeling systems were used to estimate human health risks from air pollution: two versions of MNRiskS (for Minnesota Risk Screening), and the USEPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). MNRiskS is a unique cumulative risk modeling system used to assess risks from multiple air toxics, sources, and pathways on a local to a state-wide scale. In addition, ambient outdoor air monitoring data were available for estimation of risks and comparison with the modeled estimates of air concentrations. Highest air concentrations and estimated risks were generally found in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and lowest risks in undeveloped rural areas. Emissions from mobile and area (nonpoint) sources created greater estimated risks than emissions from point sources. Highest cancer risks were via ingestion pathway exposures to dioxins and related compounds. Diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde created the highest estimated inhalation health impacts. Model-estimated air concentrations were generally highest for NATA and lowest for the AERMOD version of MNRiskS. This validation study showed reasonable agreement between available measurements and model predictions, although results varied among pollutants, and predictions were often lower than measurements. The results increased confidence in identifying pollutants, pathways, geographic areas, sources, and receptors of potential concern, and thus provide a basis for informing pollution reduction strategies and focusing efforts on specific pollutants (diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde), geographic areas (urban centers), and source categories (nonpoint sources). The results heighten concerns about risks from food chain exposures to dioxins and PAHs. Risk estimates were sensitive to variations in methodologies for treating emissions, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and toxicity. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments
M. Hurteau; M. North
2010-01-01
Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kirsch, Paul J.; Hayes, Jane; Zelinski, Lillian
2000-01-01
This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.
2011-01-01
Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).
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Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.
Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof
2009-04-01
Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.
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Review of pathogen treatment reductions for onsite non ...
Communities face a challenge when implementing onsite reuse of collected waters for non-potable purposes given the lack of national microbial standards. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) can be used to predict the pathogen risks associated with the non-potable reuse of onsite-collected waters; the present work reviewed the relevant QMRA literature to prioritize knowledge gaps and identify health-protective pathogen treatment reduction targets. The review indicated that ingestion of untreated, onsite-collected graywater, rainwater, seepage water and stormwater from a variety of exposure routes resulted in gastrointestinal infection risks greater than the traditional acceptable level of risk. We found no QMRAs that estimated the pathogen risks associated with onsite, non-potable reuse of blackwater. Pathogen treatment reduction targets for non-potable, onsite reuse that included a suite of reference pathogens (i.e., including relevant bacterial, protozoan, and viral hazards) were limited to graywater (for a limited set of domestic uses) and stormwater (for domestic and municipal uses). These treatment reductions corresponded with the health benchmark of a probability of infection or illness of 10−3 per person per year or less. The pathogen treatment reduction targets varied depending on the target health benchmark, reference pathogen, source water, and water reuse application. Overall, there remains a need for pathogen reduction targets that are heal
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group depend on the project phase and the maturity of the NLC design. Currently the NLC project is in design approaches that will enable cost estimates, schedules, risk assessment and risk reduction availability are utilized in generating and selecting among design alternatives. A more comprehensive version
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Otsuki, Shiori; Nishiura, Hiroshi
An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.
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Otsuki, Shiori
2016-01-01
Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bolinger, Mark
Reducing the performance risk surrounding a wind project can potentially lead to a lower weighted-average cost of capital (WACC), and hence a lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE), through an advantageous shift in capital structure, and possibly also a reduction in the cost of capital. Specifically, a reduction in performance risk will move the 1-year P99 annual energy production (AEP) estimate closer to the P50 AEP estimate, which in turn reduces the minimum debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) required by lenders, thereby allowing the project to be financed with a greater proportion of low-cost debt. In addition, a reduction inmore » performance risk might also reduce the cost of one or more of the three sources of capital that are commonly used to finance wind projects: sponsor or cash equity, tax equity, and/or debt. Preliminary internal LBNL analysis of the maximum possible LCOE reduction attainable from reducing the performance risk of a wind project found a potentially significant opportunity for LCOE reduction of ~$10/MWh, by reducing the P50 DSCR to its theoretical minimum value of 1.0 (Bolinger 2015b, 2014) and by reducing the cost of sponsor equity and debt by one-third to one-half each (Bolinger 2015a, 2015b). However, with FY17 funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Performance Risk, Uncertainty, and Finance (PRUF) initiative, LBNL has been revisiting this “bookending” exercise in more depth, and now believes that its earlier preliminary assessment of the LCOE reduction opportunity was overstated. This reassessment is based on two new-found understandings: (1) Due to ever-present and largely irreducible inter-annual variability (IAV) in the wind resource, the minimum required DSCR cannot possibly fall to 1.0 (on a P50 basis), and (2) A reduction in AEP uncertainty will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the cost of capital, meaning that a shift in capital structure is perhaps the best that can be expected (perhaps along with a modest decline in the cost of cash equity as new investors enter the market).« less
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Djurdjevic, Smilja; Lee, Peter N; Weitkunat, Rolf; Sponsiello-Wang, Zheng; Lüdicke, Frank; Baker, Gizelle
2018-05-16
Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP relative exposure. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.
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Issues of Fish Consumption for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction
Raatz, Susan K.; Silverstein, Jeffrey T.; Jahns, Lisa; Picklo, Matthew J.
2013-01-01
Increasing fish consumption is recommended for intake of omega-3 (n-3) fatty acids and to confer benefits for the risk reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most Americans are not achieving intake levels that comply with current recommendations. It is the goal of this review to provide an overview of the issues affecting this shortfall of intake. Herein we describe the relationship between fish intake and CVD risk reduction as well as the other nutritional contributions of fish to the diet. Currently recommended intake levels are described and estimates of fish consumption at a food disappearance and individual level are reported. Risk and benefit factors influencing the choice to consume fish are outlined. The multiple factors influencing fish availability from global capture and aquaculture are described as are other pertinent issues of fish nutrition, production, sustainability, and consumption patterns. This review highlights some of the work that needs to be carried out to meet the demand for fish and to positively affect intake levels to meet fish intake recommendations for CVD risk reduction. PMID:23538940
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Hammitt, J K
1990-09-01
Consumer choice between organically (without pesticides) and conventionally grown produce is examined. Exploratory focus-group discussions and questionnaires (N = 43) suggest that individuals who purchase organically grown produce believe it is substantially less hazardous than the conventional alternative and are willing to pay significant premiums to obtain it (a median 50% above the cost of conventional produce). The value of risk reduction implied by this incremental willingness to pay is not high relative to estimates for other risks, since the perceived risk reduction is relatively large. Organic-produce consumers also appear more likely than conventional-produce consumers to mitigate other ingestion-related risks (e.g., contaminated drinking water) but less likely to use automobile seatbelts.
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77 FR 35466 - Pilot Project Grants in Support of Railroad Safety Risk Reduction Programs
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-06-13
... mobile telephones and laptop computers. This subpart was codified in response to an increase in the... FRA funding. Applications should include feasibility studies and cost estimates, if completed. FRA will more favorably consider applications that include these types of studies and estimates, as they...
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Makarem, Nour; Nicholson, Joseph M.; Bandera, Elisa V.; McKeown, Nicola M.
2016-01-01
Context: Evidence from previous reviews is supportive of the hypothesis that whole grains may protect against various cancers. However, the reviews did not report risk estimates for both whole grains and cereal fiber and only case–control studies were evaluated. It is unclear whether longitudinal studies support this conclusion. Objective: To evaluate associations between whole grains and cereal fiber in relation to risk of lifestyle-related cancers data from longitudinal studies was evaluated. Data Sources: The following 3 databases were systematically searched: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL. Study Selection: A total of 43 longitudinal studies conducted in Europe and North America that reported multivariable-adjusted risk estimates for whole grains (n = 14), cereal fiber (n = 23), or both (n = 6) in relation to lifestyle-related cancers were included. Data Extraction: Information on study location, cohort name, follow-up duration, sample characteristics, dietary assessment method, risk estimates, and confounders was extracted. Data Synthesis: Of 20 studies examining whole grains and cancer, 6 studies reported a statistically significant 6%–47% reduction in risk, but 14 studies showed no association. Of 29 studies examining cereal fiber intake in relation to cancer, 8 showed a statistically significant 6%–49% reduction in risk, whereas 21 studies reported no association. Conclusions: This systematic review concludes that most studies were suggestive of a null association. Whole grains and cereal fiber may protect against gastrointestinal cancers, but these findings require confirmation in additional studies. PMID:27257283
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Madheswaran, S.
2007-01-01
Policy makers confronted with the need to introduce health and safety regulations often wonder how to value the benefits of these regulations. One way that a monetary value could be placed on reductions in health risks, including risk of death, is through understanding how people are compensated for the different risks they take. While there is an…
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An economic model of the benefits of professional doula labor support in Wisconsin births.
Chapple, Will; Gilliland, Amy; Li, Dongmei; Shier, Emily; Wright, Emily
2013-04-01
The purpose of this study is to estimate the immediate cost savings per delivery with in-hospital professional doula labor support in Wisconsin. This is the first study that calculates the estimated cost savings of professional doula labor support specific to Wisconsin. This analysis used results presented in and derived from the Cochrane Review of continuous labor support to estimate procedure reduction and cost savings in Wisconsin using birth statistics from 2010. The delivery outcomes included were cesarean deliveries, instrumental deliveries, and regional analgesia use. To accurately reflect published studies on labor support, only low-risk deliveries were used for intervention reduction calculations. For 2010 data, estimated savings of 28,997,754.80 dollars could have been achieved if every low-risk birth were attended in-hospital by a professional doula. A professional doula providing only in-hospital labor support would yield an estimated cost savings of 424.14 dollars per delivery or 530.89 dollars per low-risk delivery. A system-based change in how laboring mothers are supported would be an innovative step that would put Wisconsin at the forefront of cost-effective health care, reducing interventions while improving outcomes. It is recommended that Wisconsin insurers consider reimbursing for professional doula labor support. It is also recommended that pilot programs be implemented in Wisconsin that can better assess the implementation of professional doula labor support services.
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Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sargeant, S.
2012-04-01
Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the implications for scientists and information delivery.
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Joffres, Michel R; Campbell, Norm R C; Manns, Braden; Tu, Karen
2007-05-01
Hypertension is the leading risk factor for mortality worldwide. One-quarter of the adult Canadian population has hypertension, and more than 90% of the population is estimated to develop hypertension if they live an average lifespan. Reductions in dietary sodium additives significantly lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and population reductions in dietary sodium are recommended by major scientific and public health organizations. To estimate the reduction in hypertension prevalence and specific hypertension management cost savings associated with a population-wide reduction in dietary sodium additives. Based on data from clinical trials, reducing dietary sodium additives by 1840 mg/day would result in a decrease of 5.06 mmHg (systolic) and 2.7 mmHg (diastolic) blood pressures. Using Canadian Heart Health Survey data, the resulting reduction in hypertension was estimated. Costs of laboratory testing and physician visits were based on 2001 to 2003 Ontario Health Insurance Plan data, and the number of physician visits and costs of medications for patients with hypertension were taken from 2003 IMS Canada. To estimate the reduction in total physician visits and laboratory costs, current estimates of aware hypertensive patients in Canada were used from the Canadian Community Health Survey. Reducing dietary sodium additives may decrease hypertension prevalence by 30%, resulting in one million fewer hypertensive patients in Canada, and almost double the treatment and control rate. Direct cost savings related to fewer physician visits, laboratory tests and lower medication use are estimated to be approximately $430 million per year. Physician visits and laboratory costs would decrease by 6.5%, and 23% fewer treated hypertensive patients would require medications for control of blood pressure. Based on these estimates, lowering dietary sodium additives would lead to a large reduction in hypertension prevalence and result in health care cost savings in Canada.
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Joffres, Michel R; Campbell, Norm RC; Manns, Braden; Tu, Karen
2007-01-01
BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the leading risk factor for mortality worldwide. One-quarter of the adult Canadian population has hypertension, and more than 90% of the population is estimated to develop hypertension if they live an average lifespan. Reductions in dietary sodium additives significantly lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and population reductions in dietary sodium are recommended by major scientific and public health organizations. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the reduction in hypertension prevalence and specific hypertension management cost savings associated with a population-wide reduction in dietary sodium additives. METHODS: Based on data from clinical trials, reducing dietary sodium additives by 1840 mg/day would result in a decrease of 5.06 mmHg (systolic) and 2.7 mmHg (diastolic) blood pressures. Using Canadian Heart Health Survey data, the resulting reduction in hypertension was estimated. Costs of laboratory testing and physician visits were based on 2001 to 2003 Ontario Health Insurance Plan data, and the number of physician visits and costs of medications for patients with hypertension were taken from 2003 IMS Canada. To estimate the reduction in total physician visits and laboratory costs, current estimates of aware hypertensive patients in Canada were used from the Canadian Community Health Survey. RESULTS: Reducing dietary sodium additives may decrease hypertension prevalence by 30%, resulting in one million fewer hypertensive patients in Canada, and almost double the treatment and control rate. Direct cost savings related to fewer physician visits, laboratory tests and lower medication use are estimated to be approximately $430 million per year. Physician visits and laboratory costs would decrease by 6.5%, and 23% fewer treated hypertensive patients would require medications for control of blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these estimates, lowering dietary sodium additives would lead to a large reduction in hypertension prevalence and result in health care cost savings in Canada. PMID:17487286
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Dollar, Katherine M; Mix, Jacqueline M; Kozlowski, Lynn T
2008-05-01
We conducted a comparative analysis of "harm," "harm reduction," and "little cigar" information about cigars on 10 major English-language health Web sites. The sites were from governmental and nongovernmental organizations based in seven different countries and included "harm" and "harm reduction" information, discussions of little cigars, quantitative estimates of health risks, and qualifying behavioral characteristics (inhalation, number per day). Of the 10 Web sites, 7 offered statements explicitly indicating that cigars may be safer than cigarettes. None of the Web sites reviewed described that little cigars are likely as dangerous as cigarettes. Some Web sites provided quantitative estimates of health risks and extensive discussions of qualifying factors. Reading grade levels were higher than desirable. Extensive and complex information on the reduced risks of cigars compared with cigarettes is available on Web sites affiliated with prominent health organizations. Yet these sites fail to warn consumers that popular cigarette-like little cigars and cigarillos are likely to be just as dangerous as cigarettes, even for those who have never smoked cigarettes. Improvement of these Web sites is urgently needed to provide the public with high-quality health information.
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2000-12-01
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated in 1984 that manual 3-point safety belts : reduce the fatality risk of front-seat occupants of passenger cars by 45 percent relative to the unrestrained : occupant. The agency still relies ...
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Mitchell, Rebecca J; Ozminkowski, Ronald J
2017-04-01
The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of health risk factors by sexual orientation over a 4-year period within a sample of employees from a large firm. Propensity score-weighted generalized linear regression models were used to estimate the proportion of employees at high risk for health problems in each year and over time, controlling for many factors. Analyses were conducted with 6 study samples based on sex and sexual orientation. Rates of smoking, stress, and certain other health risk factors were higher for lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) employees compared with rates of these risks among straight employees. Lesbian, gay, and straight employees successfully reduced risk levels in many areas. Significant reductions were realized for the proportion at risk for high stress and low life satisfaction among gay and lesbian employees, and for the proportion of smokers among gay males. Comparing changes over time for sexual orientation groups versus other employee groups showed that improvements and reductions in risk levels for most health risk factors examined occurred at similar rates among individuals employed by this firm, regardless of sexual orientation. These results can help improve understanding of LGB health and provide information on where to focus workplace health promotion efforts to meet the health needs of LGB employees.
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Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.
Noland, R B
1995-08-01
A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).
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Prakash, Ravi; Isac, Shajy; Washington, Reynold; Halli, Shiva S.
2016-01-01
Background In Indian context, limited attempts have been made to estimate the mortality risks among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We estimated the rates of mortality among PLHIV covered under an integrated HIV-prevention cum care and support programme implemented in Karnataka state, India, and attempted to identify the key programme components associated with the higher likelihood of their survival. Methods Retrospective programme data of 55,801 PLHIV registered with the Samastha programme implemented in Karnataka state during 2006–11 was used. Kaplan-Meier survival methods were used to estimate the ten years expected survival probabilities and Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine the factors associated with risk of mortality among PLHIV. We also calculated mortality rates (per 1000 person-year) across selected demographic and clinical parameters. Results Of the total PLHIV registered with the programme, about nine percent died within the 5-years of programme period with an overall death rate of 38 per 1000 person-years. The mortality rate was higher among males, aged 18 and above, among illiterates, and those residing in rural areas. While the presence of co-infections such as Tuberculosis leads to higher mortality rate, adherence to ART was significantly associated with reduction in overall death rate. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that increase in CD4 cell counts and exposure to intensive care and support programme for at least two years can bring significant reduction in risk of death among PLHIV [(hazard ratio: 0.234; CI: 0.211–0.260) & (hazard ratio: 0.062; CI: 0.054–0.071), respectively] even after adjusting the effect of other socio-demographic, economic and health related confounders. Conclusion Study confirms that while residing in rural areas and presence of co-infection significantly increases the mortality risk among PLHIV, adherence to ART and improvement in CD4 counts led to significant reduction in their mortality risk. Longer exposure to the intervention contributed significantly to reduce mortality among PLHIV. PMID:27253974
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Pinto-Prades, Jose-Luis; Farreras, Veronica; de Bobadilla, Jaime Fernandez
2008-02-01
In order to allocate health care resources more efficiently, it is necessary to relate health improvements provided by new medicines to their cost. It is necessary to ascertain when the additional cost of introducing a new health technology is justified by the additional health gain produced. Eplerenone is a new medicine that reduces the risk of death after myocardial infarction (MI) but produces additional cost to the health system. The contingent valuation approach can be used to measure the monetary value of this risk reduction and to estimate society's willingness to pay (WTP) for a new medicine that reduces the risk of death after MI by 2% points. We used a contingent valuation approach to evaluate WTP amongst members of the general population. We used the ex-ante and the ex-post approach. In the ex-ante approach, subjects are asked if they would accept an increase in their taxes in order to have access to eplerenone should they need it in the future. In the ex-post approach, subjects are asked if they would pay a certain amount of money as co-payment per month during 5 years if they suffered an MI. We used the dichotomous choice method, using five bids in each approach. The WTP was estimated using both single-bound and double-bound dichotomous choice (SBDC, DBDC). Extensive piloting (n = 187) preceded the final survey (n = 350). The WTP in the ex-ante case was euro 58 per year under both SBDC and DBDC. In the ex-post case, monthly WTP was euro 141 for the SBDC and euro 85 for the DBDC. Subjects with higher income and subjects with a higher perception of risk showed a higher WTP (P 0.05). Society is willing to pay an additional amount of money in order to give eplerenone to present and future patients. We estimate that euro 85 per month is a conservative estimate of the monetary value of a 2% risk reduction in mortality after MI and to spend this additional amount of money in Eplerenone can be considered an efficient policy.
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Quantifying the risk-reduction potential of new Modified Risk Tobacco Products.
Martin, Florian; Vuillaume, Gregory; Baker, Gizelle; Sponsiello-Wang, Zheng; Ricci, Paolo F; Lüdicke, Frank; Weitkunat, Rolf
2018-02-01
Quantitative risk assessment of novel Modified Risk Tobacco Products (MRTP) must rest on indirect measurements that are indicative of disease development prior to epidemiological data becoming available. For this purpose, a Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) has been developed to estimate the reduction in the number of deaths from smoking-related diseases following the introduction of an MRTP. One key parameter of the model, the F-factor, describes the effective dose upon switching from cigarette smoking to using an MRTP. Biomarker data, collected in clinical studies, can be analyzed to estimate the effects of switching to an MRTP as compared to quitting smoking. Based on transparent assumptions, a link function is formulated that translates these effects into the F-factor. The concepts of 'lack of sufficiency' and 'necessity' are introduced, allowing for a parametrization of a family of link functions. These can be uniformly sampled, thus providing different 'scenarios' on how biomarker-based evidence can be translated into the F-factor to inform the PHIM. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs
Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca E.; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca L.
2018-01-01
We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic–related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct correlation between GDP reductions and reduced demand for US exports, we estimated that the illustrative outbreak would cost from approximately $13 million to approximately $64 million (1 country) to $8 billion to $41 billion (9 countries) and place 1,500 to almost 1.4 million export-related US jobs at risk. Our analysis illustrates how global health security is enhanced, and the US economy is protected, when public health threats are rapidly detected and contained at their source. PMID:29405775
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Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs.
Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H; Bunnell, Rebecca E; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca L; Meltzer, Martin I
We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic-related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct correlation between GDP reductions and reduced demand for US exports, we estimated that the illustrative outbreak would cost from $16 million to $27 million (1 country) to $10 million to $18 billion (9 countries) and place 1,500 to almost 1.4 million export-related US jobs at risk. Our analysis illustrates how global health security is enhanced, and the US economy is protected, when public health threats are rapidly detected and contained at their source.
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Physical activity and risk of pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Behrens, Gundula; Jochem, Carmen; Schmid, Daniela; Keimling, Marlen; Ricci, Cristian; Leitzmann, Michael F
2015-04-01
Physical activity may prevent pancreatic cancer by regulating body weight and decreasing insulin resistance, DNA damage, and chronic inflammation. Previous meta-analyses found inconsistent evidence for a protective effect of physical activity on pancreatic cancer but those studies did not investigate whether the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer varies by smoking status, body mass index (BMI), or level of consistency of physical activity over time. To address these issues, we conducted an updated meta-analysis following the PRISMA guidelines among 30 distinct studies with a total of 10,501 pancreatic cancer cases. Random effects meta-analysis of cohort studies revealed a weak, statistically significant reduction in pancreatic cancer risk for high versus low levels of physical activity (relative risk (RR) 0.93, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.88-0.98). By comparison, case-control studies yielded a stronger, statistically significant risk reduction (RR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.66-0.94; p-difference by study design = 0.07). When focusing on cohort studies, physical activity summary risk estimates appeared to be more pronounced for consistent physical activity over time (RR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.76-0.97) than for recent past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.90-1.01) or distant past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.79-1.15, p-difference by timing in life of physical activity = 0.36). Physical activity summary risk estimates did not differ by smoking status or BMI. In conclusion, physical activity is not strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk, and the relation is not modified by smoking status or BMI level. While overall findings were weak, we did find some suggestion of potential pancreatic cancer risk reduction with consistent physical activity over time.
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Hébert, Emily T; Stevens, Elise M; Frank, Summer G; Kendzor, Darla E; Wetter, David W; Zvolensky, Michael J; Buckner, Julia D; Businelle, Michael S
2018-03-01
Smartphone apps can provide real-time, tailored interventions for smoking cessation. The current study examines the effectiveness of a smartphone-based smoking cessation application that assessed risk for imminent smoking lapse multiple times per day and provided messages tailored to current smoking lapse risk and specific lapse triggers. Participants (N=59) recruited from a safety-net hospital smoking cessation clinic completed phone-based ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) 5 times/day for 3 consecutive weeks (1week pre-quit, 2weeks post-quit). Risk for smoking lapse was estimated in real-time using a novel weighted lapse risk estimator. With each EMA, participants received messages tailored to current level of risk for imminent smoking lapse and self-reported presence of smoking urge, stress, cigarette availability, and motivation to quit. Generalized linear mixed model analyses determined whether messages tailored to specific lapse risk factors were associated with greater reductions in these triggers than messages not tailored to specific triggers. Overall, messages tailored to smoking urge, cigarette availability, or stress corresponded with greater reductions in those triggers than messages that were not tailored to specific triggers (p's=0.02 to <0.001). Although messages tailored to stress were associated with greater reductions in stress than messages not tailored to stress, the association was non-significant (p=0.892) when only moments of high stress were included in the analysis. Mobile technology can be used to conduct real-time smoking lapse risk assessment and provide tailored treatment content. Findings provide initial evidence that tailored content may impact users' urge to smoke, stress, and cigarette availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Bendectin and birth defects: I. A meta-analysis of the epidemiologic studies.
McKeigue, P M; Lamm, S H; Linn, S; Kutcher, J S
1994-07-01
"Bendectin" (Doxylamine/Dicyclomine/Pyridoxine) was widely used for the treatment of nausea and vomiting of pregnancy until 1983, when production was discontinued in the face of lawsuits alleging that the drug caused congenital malformations. We have conducted a meta-analysis of the 16 cohort and 11 case-control studies that report birth defects from Bendectin-exposed pregnancies. This meta-analysis provides an estimate of the relative risk of malformation at birth in association with Bendectin exposure. The pooled estimate of the relative risk of any malformation at birth in association with exposure to Bendectin in the first trimester was 0.95 (95% Cl 0.88 to 1.04). Separate analyses were undertaken for cardiac defects, central nervous system defects, neural tube defects, limb reductions, oral clefts, and genital tract malformations. In these categories, the pooled estimates of relative risk ranged from 0.81 for oral clefts to 1.11 for limb reductions, with all 95% confidence intervals enclosing unity. With the exception of studies for oral clefts and for pyloric stenosis, tests for heterogeneity of association indicated for each table that all studies were estimating the same odds ratio. These studies, as a group, showed no difference in the risk of birth defects between those infants whose mothers had taken Bendectin during the first trimester of pregnancy and those infants whose mothers had not. It is unlikely that Bendectin exposure contributed to the prevalence of congenital malformations in the population.
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[Four numbers and a bit more basic knowledge of mathematics].
Günther, Judith; Briel, Matthias; Suter, Katja
2015-02-01
In addition to relative risk, relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction there circulates another effect size for binary endpoints in the scientific medical literature: the odds ratio. Relative risk and odds ratio are alternative ways of reflecting study results. Both, relative risk (RR) and odds ratio (OR), can easily be calculated from the "2 x 2-table". Advantage of OR: odds ratios can be calculated in every type of controlled study design, including retrospective studies. Furthermore, odds ratios--the biostatisticians are swarming--offer beautiful mathematical properties and therefore are often used in meta-analysis as an effect size for calculating a pooled estimate of the results of different studies with the same clinical question. Disadvantage of OR: In clinical studies the presentation of the results as "odds ratios" may result in an overestimation of the intervention effect. This article shows the difference between "chance" and "risk" and how odds ratio and relative risk are associated.
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Estimation of PM2.5 Concentration Efficiency and Potential Public Mortality Reduction in Urban China
Yu, Anyu; Jia, Guangshe; You, Jianxin
2018-01-01
The particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is a serious air-pollutant emission in China, which has caused serious risks to public health. To reduce the pollution and corresponding public mortality, this paper proposes a method by incorporating slacks-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) and an integrated exposure risk (IER) model. By identifying the relationship between the PM2.5 concentration and mortality, the potential PM2.5 concentration efficiency and mortality reduction were measured. The proposed method has been applied to China’s 243 cities in 2015. Some implications are achieved. (1) There are urban disparities in estimated results around China. The geographic distribution of urban mortality reduction is consistent with that of the PM2.5 concentration efficiency, but some inconsistency also exists. (2) The pollution reduction and public health improvement should be addressed among China’s cities, especially for those in northern coastal, eastern coastal, and middle Yellow River areas. The reduction experience of PM2.5 concentration in cities of the southern coastal area could be advocated in China. (3) Environmental consideration should be part of the production adjustment of urban central China. The updating of technology is suggested for specific cities and should be considered by the policymaker. PMID:29543783
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Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V
2017-08-01
RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.
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Crash probability estimation via quantifying driver hazard perception.
Li, Yang; Zheng, Yang; Wang, Jianqiang; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang
2018-07-01
Crash probability estimation is an important method to predict the potential reduction of crash probability contributed by forward collision avoidance technologies (FCATs). In this study, we propose a practical approach to estimate crash probability, which combines a field operational test and numerical simulations of a typical rear-end crash model. To consider driver hazard perception characteristics, we define a novel hazard perception measure, called as driver risk response time, by considering both time-to-collision (TTC) and driver braking response to impending collision risk in a near-crash scenario. Also, we establish a driving database under mixed Chinese traffic conditions based on a CMBS (Collision Mitigation Braking Systems)-equipped vehicle. Applying the crash probability estimation in this database, we estimate the potential decrease in crash probability owing to use of CMBS. A comparison of the results with CMBS on and off shows a 13.7% reduction of crash probability in a typical rear-end near-crash scenario with a one-second delay of driver's braking response. These results indicate that CMBS is positive in collision prevention, especially in the case of inattentive drivers or ole drivers. The proposed crash probability estimation offers a practical way for evaluating the safety benefits in the design and testing of FCATs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Pokharel, Yashashwi; Chinnakondepalli, Khaja; Vilain, Katherine; Wang, Kaijun; Mark, Daniel B; Davies, Glenn; Blazing, Michael A; Giugliano, Robert P; Braunwald, Eugene; Cannon, Christopher P; Cohen, David J; Magnuson, Elizabeth A
2017-05-01
Ezetimibe, when added to simvastatin therapy, reduces cardiovascular events after recent acute coronary syndrome. However, the impact of ezetimibe on cardiovascular-related hospitalizations and associated costs is unknown. We used patient-level data from the IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial) to examine the impact of simvastatin-ezetimibe versus simvastatin-placebo on cardiovascular-related hospitalizations and related costs (excluding drug costs) over 7 years follow-up. Medicare Severity-Diagnosis Related Groups were assigned to all cardiovascular hospitalizations. Hospital costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursement rates for 2013. Associated physician costs were estimated as a percentage of hospital costs. The impact of treatment assignment on hospitalization rates and costs was estimated using Poisson and linear regression, respectively. There was a significantly lower cardiovascular hospitalization rate with ezetimibe compared with placebo (risk ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.99; P =0.031), mainly attributable to fewer hospitalizations for percutaneous coronary intervention, angina, and stroke. Consequently, cardiovascular-related hospitalization costs over 7 years were $453 per patient lower with ezetimibe (95% confidence interval, -$38 to -$869; P =0.030). Although all prespecified subgroups had lower cost with ezetimibe therapy, patients with diabetes mellitus, patients aged ≥75 years, and patients at higher predicted risk for recurrent ischemic events had even greater cost offsets. Addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome leads to reductions in cardiovascular-related hospitalizations and associated costs, with the greatest cost offsets in high-risk patients. These cost reductions may completely offset the cost of the drug once ezetimibe becomes generic, and may lead to cost savings from the perspective of the healthcare system, if treatment with ezetimibe is targeted to high-risk patients. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT00202878. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
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Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A
2012-06-01
Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Gomel, M; Oldenburg, B; Simpson, J M; Owen, N
1993-01-01
OBJECTIVES. This study reports an efficacy trial of four work-site health promotion programs. It was predicted that strategies making use of behavioral counseling would produce a greater reduction in cardiovascular disease risk factors than screening and educational strategies. METHODS. Twenty-eight work sites were randomly allocated to a health risk assessment, risk factor education, behavioral counseling, or behavioral counseling plus incentives intervention. Participants were assessed before the intervention and at 3, 6, and 12 months. RESULTS. Compared with the average of the health risk assessment and risk factor education conditions, there were significantly higher validated continuous smoking cessation rates and smaller increases in body mass index and estimated percentage of body fat in the two behavioral counseling conditions. The behavioral counseling condition was associated with a greater reduction in mean blood pressure than was the behavioral counseling plus incentives condition. On average among all groups, there was a short-term increase in aerobic capacity followed by a return to baseline levels. CONCLUSIONS. Work-site interventions that use behavioral approaches can produce lasting changes in some cardiovascular risk factors and, if implemented routinely, can have a significant public health impact. PMID:8362997
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Levy, J.I.; Wilson, A.M.; Zwack, L.M.
2007-05-15
We modeled the public health benefits and the change in the spatial inequality of health risk for a number of hypothetical control scenarios for power plants in the United States to determine optimal control strategies. We simulated various ways by which emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) could be distributed to reach national emissions caps. We applied a source-receptor matrix to determine the PM2.5 concentration changes associated with each control scenario and estimated the mortality reductions. We estimated changes in the spatial inequality of health risk using the Atkinson index and othermore » indicators, following previously derived axioms for measuring health risk inequality. In our baseline model, benefits ranged from 17,000-21,000 fewer premature deaths per year across control scenarios. Scenarios with greater health benefits also tended to have greater reductions in the spatial inequality of health risk, as many sources with high health benefits per unit emissions of SO{sub 2} were in areas with high background PM2.5 concentrations. Sensitivity analyses indicated that conclusions were generally robust to the choice of indicator and other model specifications. Our analysis demonstrates an approach for formally quantifying both the magnitude and spatial distribution of health benefits of pollution control strategies, allowing for joint consideration of efficiency and equity.« less
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Grimm, Richard; Malik, Mobin; Yunis, Carla; Sutradhar, Santosh; Kursun, Attila
2010-01-01
TOGETHER investigated whether targeting multiple cardiovascular (CV) risk factors using single-pill amlodipine/atorvastatin (AML/ATO) and therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC) results in greater blood pressure (BP)/lipid control and additional reduction in estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk compared with blood pressure intervention only using amlodipine (AML) + TLC. TOGETHER was a 6-week, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy trial using hypertensive participants with additional CV risk factors without CVD/diabetes. Participants were randomized to either AML/ATO (5 to 10/20 mg) + TLC or AML (5 to 10 mg) + TLC. The primary end point was the difference in proportion of participants attaining both BP (<140/90 mm Hg) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (<100 mg/dL) goals at week 6. At week 6, 67.8% of participants receiving AML/ATO + TLC attained the combined BP/LDL-C goal versus 9.6% with AML + TLC (RD [A–B]: 58.2; 95% CI [48.1 to 68.4] P < 0.001; OR: 19.0; 95% CI 9.1 to 39.6; P < 0.001). Significant reductions from baseline in LDL-C, total cholesterol and triglycerides and estimated 10-year Framingham risk were also observed. Treatment with AML/ATO was well tolerated. In conclusion, a multifactorial CV management approach is more effective in achieving combined BP/LDL-C targets as well as CV risk reduction compared with BP intervention only in this patient population. PMID:20479948
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Benefit-cost estimation for alternative drinking water maximum contaminant levels
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gurian, Patrick L.; Small, Mitchell J.; Lockwood, John R.; Schervish, Mark J.
2001-08-01
A simulation model for estimating compliance behavior and resulting costs at U.S. Community Water Suppliers is developed and applied to the evaluation of a more stringent maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic. Probability distributions of source water arsenic concentrations are simulated using a statistical model conditioned on system location (state) and source water type (surface water or groundwater). This model is fit to two recent national surveys of source waters, then applied with the model explanatory variables for the population of U.S. Community Water Suppliers. Existing treatment types and arsenic removal efficiencies are also simulated. Utilities with finished water arsenic concentrations above the proposed MCL are assumed to select the least cost option compatible with their existing treatment from among 21 available compliance strategies and processes for meeting the standard. Estimated costs and arsenic exposure reductions at individual suppliers are aggregated to estimate the national compliance cost, arsenic exposure reduction, and resulting bladder cancer risk reduction. Uncertainties in the estimates are characterized based on uncertainties in the occurrence model parameters, existing treatment types, treatment removal efficiencies, costs, and the bladder cancer dose-response function for arsenic.
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Suzuki, Reiko; Allen, Naomi E; Key, Timothy J; Appleby, Paul N; Tjønneland, Anne; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Jensen, Majken K; Overvad, Kim; Boeing, Heiner; Pischon, Tobias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Rohrmann, Sabine; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Misirli, Gesthimani; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; van Duijnhoven, Fränzel; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Pala, Valeria; Palli, Domenico; Tumino, Rosario; Ardanaz, Eva; Quirós, José Ramón; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sánchez, Maria-José; Tormo, María-José; Jakszyn, Paula; Johansson, Ingegerd; Stattin, Pär; Berglund, Göran; Manjer, Jonas; Bingham, Sheila; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Egevad, Lars; Ferrari, Pietro; Jenab, Mazda; Riboli, Elio
2009-01-01
Few studies have examined the association between dietary fiber intake and prostate cancer risk. We evaluated the association between dietary fiber intake and the risk of prostate cancer among 142,590 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Consumption of dietary fiber (total, cereal, fruit and vegetable fiber) was estimated by validated dietary questionnaires and calibrated using 24-hr dietary recalls. Incidence rate ratios were estimated using Cox regression and adjusted for potential confounding factors. During an average of 8.7 years follow-up, prostate cancer was diagnosed in 2,747 men. Overall, there was no association between dietary fiber intake (total, cereal, fruit or vegetable fiber) and prostate cancer risk, although calibrated intakes of total fiber and fruit fiber were associated with nonstatistically significant reductions in risk. There was no association between fiber derived from cereals or vegetables and risk and no evidence for heterogeneity in any of the risk estimates by stage or grade of disease. Our results suggest that dietary fiber intake is not associated with prostate cancer risk.
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Reducing aluminum: an occupation possibly associated with bladder cancer.
Thériault, G; De Guire, L; Cordier, S
1981-01-01
A case-control study, undertaken to identify reasons for the exceptionally high incidence of bladder cancer among men in the Chicoutimi census division of the province of Quebec, revealed an increased risk associated with employment in the electrolysis department of an aluminum reduction plant. The estimated relative risk was 2.83 (95% confidence interval; 1.06 to 7.54). An interaction was found between such employment and cigarette smoking, resulting in a combined relative risk of 5.70 (95% confidence interval: 2.00 to 12.30). These findings suggest that employment in an aluminum reduction plant accounts for part of the excess of bladder cancer in the region studied. PMID:7214271
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Integrating risk assessment and life cycle assessment: a case study of insulation.
Nishioka, Yurika; Levy, Jonathan I; Norris, Gregory A; Wilson, Andrew; Hofstetter, Patrick; Spengler, John D
2002-10-01
Increasing residential insulation can decrease energy consumption and provide public health benefits, given changes in emissions from fuel combustion, but also has cost implications and ancillary risks and benefits. Risk assessment or life cycle assessment can be used to calculate the net impacts and determine whether more stringent energy codes or other conservation policies would be warranted, but few analyses have combined the critical elements of both methodologies In this article, we present the first portion of a combined analysis, with the goal of estimating the net public health impacts of increasing residential insulation for new housing from current practice to the latest International Energy Conservation Code (IECC 2000). We model state-by-state residential energy savings and evaluate particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5), NOx, and SO2 emission reductions. We use past dispersion modeling results to estimate reductions in exposure, and we apply concentration-response functions for premature mortality and selected morbidity outcomes using current epidemiological knowledge of effects of PM2.5 (primary and secondary). We find that an insulation policy shift would save 3 x 10(14) British thermal units or BTU (3 x 10(17) J) over a 10-year period, resulting in reduced emissions of 1,000 tons of PM2.5, 30,000 tons of NOx, and 40,000 tons of SO2. These emission reductions yield an estimated 60 fewer fatalities during this period, with the geographic distribution of health benefits differing from the distribution of energy savings because of differences in energy sources, population patterns, and meteorology. We discuss the methodology to be used to integrate life cycle calculations, which can ultimately yield estimates that can be compared with costs to determine the influence of external costs on benefit-cost calculations.
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Whitfield, Malcolm D; Gillett, Michael; Holmes, Michael; Ogden, Elaine
2006-12-01
The brief for this study was to produce a practical, evidence based, financial planning tool, which could be used to present an economic argument for funding a public health-based prevention programme in coronary heart disease (CHD) related illness on the same basis as treatment interventions. To explore the possibility of using multivariate risk prediction equations, derived from the Framingham and other studies, to estimate how many people in a population are likely to be admitted to hospital in the next 5-10 years with cardio vascular disease (CVD) related events such as heart attacks, strokes, heart failure and kidney disease. To estimate the potential financial impact of reductions in hospital admissions, on an 'invest to save' basis, if primary care trusts (PCTs) were to invest in public health based interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk at a population level. The populations of five UK PCTs were entered into a spreadsheet based decision tree model, in terms of age and sex (this equated to around 620,000 adults). An estimation was made to determine how many people, in each age group, were likely to be diabetic. Population risk factors such as smoking rates, mean body mass index (BMI), mean total cholesterol and mean systolic blood pressure were entered by age group. The spreadsheet then used a variant of the Framingham equation to calculate how many non-diabetic people in each age group were likely to have a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 years. In addition heart failure and dialysis admission rates were estimated based upon risk factors for incidence. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engines 56 and 60 were used to calculate the risk of CHD and stroke, respectively, in people with type 2 diabetes. The spreadsheet deducted the number of people likely to die before reaching hospital and produced a predicted number of hospital admissions for each category over a 5-year period. The final part of the calculation attached a cost to the hospital activity using the UK Health Resource Grouping (HRG) tariffs. The predicted number of events in each of the primary care trusts was then compared with the actual number of events the previous year (2004/2005). The study used a decision tree type model, which was populated with data from the research literature. The model applied the risk equations to population data from five primary care trusts to estimate how many people would suffer from an acute CVD related event over the next 5 years. The predicted number of events was then compared with the actual number of acute admissions for heart attacks, strokes, heart failure, acute hypoglycaemic attacks, renal failure and coronary bypass surgery the previous year. The first outcome of the model was to compare the estimated number of people in each PCT likely to suffer from a heart attack, a stroke, heart failure or chronic kidney failure with the actual number the previous year 2004/2005. The predicted number was remarkably accurate in the case of heart attack and stroke. There was some over-prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) which could be accounted for by known under-diagnosis in this illness group and the inability of the model to pick up, at this stage, the fact that many CKD patients die of a CHD related event before they reach the stage of requiring renal replacement. The second outcome of the model was to estimate the financial consequence of risk reduction. Moderate reductions in risk in the order of around 2-4% were estimated to lead to saving in acute admission costs or around pounds sterling 5.4 million over 5 years. More ambitious targets of risk reduction in the order of 5-6% led to estimated savings of around pounds sterling 8.7 million. This study is not presented as the definitive approach to predicting the economic consequences of investment in public health on the cost of secondary care. It is simply a logical, systematic approach to quantifying these issues in order to present a business case for such investment. The research team do not know if the predicted savings would accrue from such investments; it is theoretical at this stage. The point is, however, that if the predictions are correct then the savings will accrue from over 4000 people, from an adult population of around 185,000 not having a heart attack or a stroke or an acute exacerbation of heart failure.
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Cost effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs in geriatric outpatients.
van der Velde, Nathalie; Meerding, Willen Jan; Looman, Caspar W; Pols, Huibert A P; van der Cammen, Tischa J M
2008-01-01
Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs has been proven to be effective in older persons. However, given the enormous rise in healthcare costs in recent decades, the effect of such withdrawals on healthcare costs also needs to be considered. Within a common geriatric outpatient population, patients with a history of falls were assessed for falls risk (n = 139). Fall-risk-increasing drugs were withdrawn when appropriate (n = 75). All participants had a 2-month follow-up for fall incidents. The number of prevented falls was calculated using a loglinear regression model. The savings on health expenditures as a result of prevented injuries (estimated from a literature review) and reduced consumption of pharmaceuticals were compared with the intervention costs. After adjustment for confounders, drug withdrawal resulted in a falls risk reduction of 0.89 (95% CI 0.33, 0.98) per patient compared with the non-withdrawal group. Net cost savings were euro1691 (95% CI 662, 2181) per patient in the cohort. This resulted in a cost saving of euro491 (95% CI 465, 497) per prevented fall. Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs generates significant cost savings. Extrapolation of these findings to a national scale results in an estimated reduction of euro60 million in healthcare expenditures, that is, 15% of fall-related health costs.
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Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen
2015-03-15
Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While these differences are small compared to uncertainties in health risk assessment more generally, the ranks of different regions and of emissions categories as the focus of regulatory efforts estimated at these four levels of spatial resolution are quite different. The results suggest that issues of risk equity within a nation might be missed by the lower levels of spatial resolution, suggesting that low resolution models are suited to calculating national cost-benefit ratios but not as suited to assessing co-benefits of climate policies reflecting intersubject variability in risk, or in identifying sub-national regions and emissions sectors on which to focus attention (although even here, the errors introduced by low spatial resolution are generally less than 40%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Zeng, X Y; Li, Y C; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Liu, S W; Qi, J L; Zhou, M G
2017-12-06
Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (201 thousands reduction). BMI control would have the greatest impact on ischemic heart disease (86 thousands reduction) and hypertensive heart disease (45 thousands reduction). If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, in 2030, the life expectancy of Chinese population would reach to 79.0 years old, compared to 2013, increasing by 3.3 years old, the labor force at the age of 15-64 years old would loss 1.932 million. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, life expectancy would increase to 81.7 years old and the number of labor force lost would decrease to 1.467 million. Blood pressure, smoking and BMI control would have much greater impact on life expectancy (4.9, 4.0 and 3.8 years old respectively) and labor force lost (630 thousands, 496 thousands and 440 thousands respectively). Conclusion: Risk factors control would play an important role in reducing NCD death, improving life expectancy of residents and reducing loss of labor force. Among them, the control of blood pressure raising, smoking and BMI raising would have a greater contribution to the improvement of population health status.
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DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks
Thurner, Stefan; Poledna, Sebastian
2013-01-01
Nodes in a financial network, such as banks, cannot assess the true risks associated with lending to other nodes in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all other nodes. These risks can be estimated by using network metrics (as DebtRank) of the interbank liability network. With a simple agent based model we show that systemic risk in financial networks can be drastically reduced by increasing transparency, i.e. making the DebtRank of individual banks visible to others, and by imposing a rule, that reduces interbank borrowing from systemically risky nodes. This scheme does not reduce the efficiency of the financial network, but fosters a more homogeneous risk-distribution within the system in a self-organized critical way. The reduction of systemic risk is due to a massive reduction of cascading failures in the transparent system. A regulation-policy implementation of the proposed scheme is discussed. PMID:23712454
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Bhanegaonkar, Abhijeet J; Horodniceanu, Erica G; Abdul Latiff, Amir Hamzah; Woodhull, Sanjay; Khoo, Phaik Choo; Detzel, Patrick; Ji, Xiang; Botteman, Marc F
2015-04-01
Breastfeeding is best for infants and the World Health Organization recommends exclusive breastfeeding for at least the first 6 months of life. For those who are unable to be breastfed, previous studies demonstrate that feeding high-risk infants with hydrolyzed formulas instead of cow's milk formula (CMF) may decrease the risk of atopic dermatitis (AD). To estimate the economic impact of feeding high-risk, not exclusively breastfed, urban Malaysian infants with partiallyhydrolyzed whey-based formula (PHF-W) instead of CMF for the first 17 weeks of life as an AD risk reduction strategy. A cohort Markov model simulated the AD incidence and burden from birth to age 6 years in the target population fed with PHF-W vs. CMF. The model integrated published clinical and epidemiologic data, local cost data, and expert opinion. Modeled outcomes included AD-risk reduction, time spent post AD diagnosis, days without AD flare, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs (direct and indirect). Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Costs are expressed in Malaysian Ringgit (MYR; MYR 1,000 = United States dollar [US $]316.50). Feeding a high-risk infant PHF-W vs. CMF resulted in a 14% point reduction in AD risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 3%-23%), a 0.69-year (95% CI, 0.25-1.10) reduction in time spent post-AD diagnosis, additional 38 (95% CI, 2-94) days without AD flare, and an undiscounted gain of 0.041 (95% CI, 0.007-0.103) QALYs. The discounted AD-related 6-year cost estimates when feeding a high-risk infant with PHF-W were MYR 1,758 (US $556) (95% CI, MYR 917-3,033) and with CMF MYR 2,871 (US $909) (95% CI, MYR 1,697-4,278), resulting in a per-child net saving of MYR 1,113 (US $352) (95% CI, MYR 317-1,884) favoring PHF-W. Using PHF-W instead of CMF in this population is expected to result in AD-related costs savings.
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Economic value of atopic dermatitis prevention via infant formula use in high-risk Malaysian infants
Bhanegaonkar, Abhijeet J; Horodniceanu, Erica G; Abdul Latiff, Amir Hamzah; Woodhull, Sanjay; Khoo, Phaik Choo; Detzel, Patrick; Ji, Xiang
2015-01-01
Background Breastfeeding is best for infants and the World Health Organization recommends exclusive breastfeeding for at least the first 6 months of life. For those who are unable to be breastfed, previous studies demonstrate that feeding high-risk infants with hydrolyzed formulas instead of cow's milk formula (CMF) may decrease the risk of atopic dermatitis (AD). Objective To estimate the economic impact of feeding high-risk, not exclusively breastfed, urban Malaysian infants with partiallyhydrolyzed whey-based formula (PHF-W) instead of CMF for the first 17 weeks of life as an AD risk reduction strategy. Methods A cohort Markov model simulated the AD incidence and burden from birth to age 6 years in the target population fed with PHF-W vs. CMF. The model integrated published clinical and epidemiologic data, local cost data, and expert opinion. Modeled outcomes included AD-risk reduction, time spent post AD diagnosis, days without AD flare, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs (direct and indirect). Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Costs are expressed in Malaysian Ringgit (MYR; MYR 1,000 = United States dollar [US $]316.50). Results Feeding a high-risk infant PHF-W vs. CMF resulted in a 14% point reduction in AD risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 3%-23%), a 0.69-year (95% CI, 0.25-1.10) reduction in time spent post-AD diagnosis, additional 38 (95% CI, 2-94) days without AD flare, and an undiscounted gain of 0.041 (95% CI, 0.007-0.103) QALYs. The discounted AD-related 6-year cost estimates when feeding a high-risk infant with PHF-W were MYR 1,758 (US $556) (95% CI, MYR 917-3,033) and with CMF MYR 2,871 (US $909) (95% CI, MYR 1,697-4,278), resulting in a per-child net saving of MYR 1,113 (US $352) (95% CI, MYR 317-1,884) favoring PHF-W. Conclusion Using PHF-W instead of CMF in this population is expected to result in AD-related costs savings. PMID:25938073
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Corradini, Stefanie; Ballhausen, Hendrik; Weingandt, Helmut; Freislederer, Philipp; Schönecker, Stephan; Niyazi, Maximilian; Simonetto, Cristoforo; Eidemüller, Markus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus
2018-03-01
Modern breast cancer radiotherapy techniques, such as respiratory-gated radiotherapy in deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) or volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy (VMAT) have been shown to reduce the high dose exposure of the heart in left-sided breast cancer. The aim of the present study was to comparatively estimate the excess relative and absolute risks of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease for different modern radiotherapy techniques. Four different treatment plans were generated for ten computed tomography data sets of patients with left-sided breast cancer, using either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) or VMAT, in free-breathing (FB) or DIBH. Dose-volume histograms were used for organ equivalent dose (OED) calculations using linear, linear-exponential, and plateau models for the lung. A linear model was applied to estimate the long-term risk of ischemic heart disease as motivated by epidemiologic data. Excess relative risk (ERR) and 10-year excess absolute risk (EAR) for radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease were estimated for different representative baseline risks. The DIBH maneuver resulted in a significant reduction of the ERR and estimated 10-year excess absolute risk for major coronary events compared to FB in 3D-CRT plans (p = 0.04). In VMAT plans, the mean predicted risk reduction through DIBH was less pronounced and not statistically significant (p = 0.44). The risk of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer was mainly influenced by the radiotherapy technique, with no beneficial effect through DIBH. VMAT plans correlated with an increase in 10-year EAR for radiation-induced lung cancer as compared to 3D-CRT plans (DIBH p = 0.007; FB p = 0.005, respectively). However, the EARs were affected more strongly by nonradiation-associated risk factors, such as smoking, as compared to the choice of treatment technique. The results indicate that 3D-CRT plans in DIBH pose the lowest risk for both major coronary events and secondary lung cancer.
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Masud, Tahir; Binkley, Neil; Boonen, Steven; Hannan, Marian T
2011-01-01
Risk factors for fracture can be purely skeletal, e.g., bone mass, microarchitecture or geometry, or a combination of bone and falls risk related factors such as age and functional status. The remit of this Task Force was to review the evidence and consider if falls should be incorporated into the FRAX® model or, alternatively, to provide guidance to assist clinicians in clinical decision-making for patients with a falls history. It is clear that falls are a risk factor for fracture. Fracture probability may be underestimated by FRAX® in individuals with a history of frequent falls. The substantial evidence that various interventions are effective in reducing falls risk was reviewed. Targeting falls risk reduction strategies towards frail older people at high risk for indoor falls is appropriate. This Task Force believes that further fracture reduction requires measures to reduce falls risk in addition to bone directed therapy. Clinicians should recognize that patients with frequent falls are at higher fracture risk than currently estimated by FRAX® and include this in decision-making. However, quantitative adjustment of the FRAX® estimated risk based on falls history is not currently possible. In the long term, incorporation of falls as a risk factor in the FRAX® model would be ideal. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S
2012-05-01
To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.
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ExMC Work Prioritization Process
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Simon, Matthew
2015-01-01
Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.
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Block, Robert C; Abdolahi, Amir; Niemiec, Christopher P; Rigby, C Scott; Williams, Geoffrey C
2016-12-01
There is a lack of research on the use of electronic tools that guide patients toward reducing their cardiovascular disease risk. We conducted a 9-month clinical trial in which participants who were at low (n = 100) and moderate (n = 23) cardiovascular disease risk-based on the National Cholesterol Education Program III's 10-year risk estimator-were randomized to usual care or to usual care plus use of an Interactive Cholesterol Advisory Tool during the first 8 weeks of the study. In the moderate-risk category, an interaction between treatment condition and Framingham risk estimate on low-density lipoprotein and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was observed, such that participants in the virtual clinician treatment condition had a larger reduction in low-density lipoprotein and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol as their Framingham risk estimate increased. Perceptions of the Interactive Cholesterol Advisory Tool were positive. Evidence-based information about cardiovascular disease risk and its management was accessible to participants without major technical challenges. © The Author(s) 2015.
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Chin, Helen B; Sipe, Theresa Ann; Elder, Randy; Mercer, Shawna L; Chattopadhyay, Sajal K; Jacob, Verughese; Wethington, Holly R; Kirby, Doug; Elliston, Donna B; Griffith, Matt; Chuke, Stella O; Briss, Susan C; Ericksen, Irene; Galbraith, Jennifer S; Herbst, Jeffrey H; Johnson, Robert L; Kraft, Joan M; Noar, Seth M; Romero, Lisa M; Santelli, John
2012-03-01
Adolescent pregnancy, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are major public health problems in the U.S. Implementing group-based interventions that address the sexual behavior of adolescents may reduce the incidence of pregnancy, HIV, and other STIs in this group. Methods for conducting systematic reviews from the Guide to Community Preventive Services were used to synthesize scientific evidence on the effectiveness of two strategies for group-based behavioral interventions for adolescents: (1) comprehensive risk reduction and (2) abstinence education on preventing pregnancy, HIV, and other STIs. Effectiveness of these interventions was determined by reductions in sexual risk behaviors, pregnancy, HIV, and other STIs and increases in protective sexual behaviors. The literature search identified 6579 citations for comprehensive risk reduction and abstinence education. Of these, 66 studies of comprehensive risk reduction and 23 studies of abstinence education assessed the effects of group-based interventions that address the sexual behavior of adolescents, and were included in the respective reviews. Meta-analyses were conducted for each strategy on the seven key outcomes identified by the coordination team-current sexual activity; frequency of sexual activity; number of sex partners; frequency of unprotected sexual activity; use of protection (condoms and/or hormonal contraception); pregnancy; and STIs. The results of these meta-analyses for comprehensive risk reduction showed favorable effects for all of the outcomes reviewed. For abstinence education, the meta-analysis showed a small number of studies, with inconsistent findings across studies that varied by study design and follow-up time, leading to considerable uncertainty around effect estimates. Based on these findings, group-based comprehensive risk reduction was found to be an effective strategy to reduce adolescent pregnancy, HIV, and STIs. No conclusions could be drawn on the effectiveness of group-based abstinence education. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie; Clasen, Thomas; Colford, John M; Cumming, Oliver; Curtis, Valerie; Bonjour, Sophie; Dangour, Alan D; De France, Jennifer; Fewtrell, Lorna; Freeman, Matthew C; Gordon, Bruce; Hunter, Paul R; Johnston, Richard B; Mathers, Colin; Mäusezahl, Daniel; Medlicott, Kate; Neira, Maria; Stocks, Meredith; Wolf, Jennyfer; Cairncross, Sandy
2014-01-01
Objective To estimate the burden of diarrhoeal diseases from exposure to inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene in low- and middle-income settings and provide an overview of the impact on other diseases. Methods For estimating the impact of water, sanitation and hygiene on diarrhoea, we selected exposure levels with both sufficient global exposure data and a matching exposure-risk relationship. Global exposure data were estimated for the year 2012, and risk estimates were taken from the most recent systematic analyses. We estimated attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, age and sex for inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene separately, and as a cluster of risk factors. Uncertainty estimates were computed on the basis of uncertainty surrounding exposure estimates and relative risks. Results In 2012, 502 000 diarrhoea deaths were estimated to be caused by inadequate drinking water and 280 000 deaths by inadequate sanitation. The most likely estimate of disease burden from inadequate hand hygiene amounts to 297 000 deaths. In total, 842 000 diarrhoea deaths are estimated to be caused by this cluster of risk factors, which amounts to 1.5% of the total disease burden and 58% of diarrhoeal diseases. In children under 5 years old, 361 000 deaths could be prevented, representing 5.5% of deaths in that age group. Conclusions This estimate confirms the importance of improving water and sanitation in low- and middle-income settings for the prevention of diarrhoeal disease burden. It also underscores the need for better data on exposure and risk reductions that can be achieved with provision of reliable piped water, community sewage with treatment and hand hygiene. PMID:24779548
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Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bartram, Jamie; Clasen, Thomas; Colford, John M; Cumming, Oliver; Curtis, Valerie; Bonjour, Sophie; Dangour, Alan D; De France, Jennifer; Fewtrell, Lorna; Freeman, Matthew C; Gordon, Bruce; Hunter, Paul R; Johnston, Richard B; Mathers, Colin; Mäusezahl, Daniel; Medlicott, Kate; Neira, Maria; Stocks, Meredith; Wolf, Jennyfer; Cairncross, Sandy
2014-08-01
To estimate the burden of diarrhoeal diseases from exposure to inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene in low- and middle-income settings and provide an overview of the impact on other diseases. For estimating the impact of water, sanitation and hygiene on diarrhoea, we selected exposure levels with both sufficient global exposure data and a matching exposure-risk relationship. Global exposure data were estimated for the year 2012, and risk estimates were taken from the most recent systematic analyses. We estimated attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, age and sex for inadequate water, sanitation and hand hygiene separately, and as a cluster of risk factors. Uncertainty estimates were computed on the basis of uncertainty surrounding exposure estimates and relative risks. In 2012, 502,000 diarrhoea deaths were estimated to be caused by inadequate drinking water and 280,000 deaths by inadequate sanitation. The most likely estimate of disease burden from inadequate hand hygiene amounts to 297,000 deaths. In total, 842,000 diarrhoea deaths are estimated to be caused by this cluster of risk factors, which amounts to 1.5% of the total disease burden and 58% of diarrhoeal diseases. In children under 5 years old, 361,000 deaths could be prevented, representing 5.5% of deaths in that age group. This estimate confirms the importance of improving water and sanitation in low- and middle-income settings for the prevention of diarrhoeal disease burden. It also underscores the need for better data on exposure and risk reductions that can be achieved with provision of reliable piped water, community sewage with treatment and hand hygiene. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine and International Health published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto
2017-05-01
Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.
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Redman, Mary W.; Tangen, Catherine M.; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Parnes, Howard; Ford, Leslie G.; Lucia, M. Scott; Coltman, Charles A.; Thompson, Ian M.
2010-01-01
The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial found that seven years of administration of finasteride reduced the risk of prostate cancer by 25% but with an apparent increased risk of high grade disease. Subsequent analyses found that finasteride affects cancer detection and improves accuracy of tumor grading at biopsy. We herein estimate the impact of finasteride on the risk of overall and high grade prostate cancer, accounting for these biases. Study endpoints (biopsy-proven cancer or a 7-year end-of-study biopsy) were available in 10,182 of 15,990 subjects assessable for 7-year status and grading information from 500 subjects diagnosed with cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy. Prostate cancer was observed in 22.9% (4.8% with high grade) in the placebo group versus 16.6% (5.8% with high grade) in the finasteride group. In this bias-adjusted analysis, the estimated rates are 21.1% (4.2%) and 14.7% (4.8%), respectively, a 30% risk reduction in prostate cancer (RR =0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) =0.64-0.76, p<0.0001) and a non-significant 14% increase in high grade cancer (RR=1.14 (95% CI = (0.96-1.35), p=0.12) with finasteride. Incorporating the prostatectomy data, estimated rates of high grade cancers are 8.2% (placebo) versus 6.0% (finasteride), a 27% risk reduction (RR = 0.73 (95% CI=0.56-0.96, p=0.02)) with finasteride. While the observed risk of high grade disease is greater with finasteride, this appears to be through facilitated diagnosis, primarily due to increased biopsy sensitivity. Men undergoing regular prostate cancer screening or who express an interest in cancer prevention should be informed of this prevention opportunity. PMID:19138953
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.
2014-11-01
Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.
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Risk-based prioritization among air pollution control strategies in the Yangtze River Delta, China.
Zhou, Ying; Fu, Joshua S; Zhuang, Guoshun; Levy, Jonathan I
2010-09-01
The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China is a densely populated region with recent dramatic increases in energy consumption and atmospheric emissions. We studied how different emission sectors influence population exposures and the corresponding health risks, to inform air pollution control strategy design. We applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to model the marginal contribution to baseline concentrations from different sectors. We focused on nitrogen oxide (NOx) control while considering other pollutants that affect fine particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 mum (PM2.5)] and ozone concentrations. We developed concentration-response (C-R) functions for PM2.5 and ozone mortality for China to evaluate the anticipated health benefits. In the YRD, health benefits per ton of emission reductions varied significantly across pollutants, with reductions of primary PM2.5 from the industry sector and mobile sources showing the greatest benefits of 0.1 fewer deaths per year per ton of emission reduction. Combining estimates of health benefits per ton with potential emission reductions, the greatest mortality reduction of 12,000 fewer deaths per year [95% confidence interval (CI), 1,200-24,000] was associated with controlling primary PM2.5 emissions from the industry sector and reducing sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the power sector, respectively. Benefits were lower for reducing NOx emissions given lower consequent reductions in the formation of secondary PM2.5 (compared with SO2) and increases in ozone concentrations that would result in the YRD. Although uncertainties related to C-R functions are significant, the estimated health benefits of emission reductions in the YRD are substantial, especially for sectors and pollutants with both higher health benefits per unit emission reductions and large potential for emission reductions.
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Cost-benefit analysis of using sewage sludge as alternative fuel in a cement plant: a case study.
Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L
2009-05-01
To enforce the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol targets, a number of governmental/international institutions have launched emission trade schemes as an approach to specify CO(2) caps and to regulate the emission trade in recent years. These schemes have been basically applied for large industrial sectors, including energy producers and energy-intensive users. Among them, cement plants are included among the big greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. The use of waste as secondary fuel in clinker kilns is currently an intensive practice worldwide. However, people living in the vicinity of cement plants, where alternative fuels are being used, are frequently concerned about the potential increase in health risks. In the present study, a cost-benefit analysis was applied after substituting classical fuel for sewage sludge as an alternative fuel in a clinker kiln in Catalonia, Spain. The economical benefits resulting in the reduction of CO(2) emissions were compared with the changes in human health risks due to exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and carcinogenic metals (As, Cd, Co, and Cr) before and after using sewage sludge to generate 20% of the thermal energy needed for pyro-processing. The exposure to PCDD/Fs and metals through air inhalation, soil ingestion and dermal absorption was calculated according to the environmental levels in soil. The carcinogenic risks were assessed, and the associated cost for the population was estimated by considering the DG Environment's recommended value for preventing a statistical fatality (VPF). In turn, the amount of CO(2) emitted was calculated, and the economical saving, according to the market prices, was evaluated. The use of sewage sludge as a substitute of conventional energy meant a probability cancer decrease of 4.60 for metals and a cancer risk increase of 0.04 for PCDD/Fs. Overall, a net reduction of 4.56 cancers for one million people can be estimated. The associated economical evaluation due to the decreasing cancer for 60,000 people, the current population living near the cement plant, would be of 0.56 million euros (US$ 0.83 million). In turn, a reduction of 144,000 tons of CO(2) emitted between 2003 and 2006 was estimated. Considering a cost of 20 euros per ton of CO(2), the global saving would be 2.88 million euros (US$ 4.26 million). After the partial substitution of the fuel, the current environmental exposure to metals and PCDD/Fs would even mean a potential decrease of health risks for the individuals living in the vicinity of the cement plant. The total benefit of using sewage sludge as an alternative fuel was calculated in 3.44 million euros (US$ 5.09 million). Environmental economics is becoming an interesting research field to convert environmental benefits (i.e., reduction of health risks, emission of pollutants, etc.) into economical value. The results show, that while the use of sewage sludge as secondary fuel is beneficial for the reduction in GHG emissions, no additional health risks for the population derived from PCDD/F and metal emissions are estimated. Cost-benefit analysis seems to be a suitable tool to estimate the environmental damage and benefit associated to industrial processes. Therefore, this should become a generalized practice, mainly for those more impacting sectors such as power industries. On the other hand, the extension of the study could vastly be enlarged by taking into account other potentially emitted GHGs, such as CH(4) and N(2)O, as well as other carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic micropollutants.
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Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas.
Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn
2015-01-01
This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation.
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Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas
Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn
2015-01-01
This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891
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Promoting patient safety through prospective risk identification: example from peri-operative care.
Smith, A; Boult, M; Woods, I; Johnson, S
2010-02-01
Investigation of patient safety incidents has focused on retrospective analyses once incidents have occurred. Prospective risk analysis techniques complement this but have not been widely used in healthcare. Prospective risk identification of non-operative risks associated with adult elective surgery under general anaesthesia using a customised structured "what if" checklist and development of risk matrix. Prioritisation of recommendations arising by cost, ease and likely speed of implementation. Groups totalling 20 clinical and administrative healthcare staff involved in peri-operative care and risk experts convened by the UK National Patient Safety Agency. 102 risks were identified and 95 recommendations made. The top 20 recommendations together were judged to encompass about 75% of the total estimated risk attributable to the processes considered. Staffing and organisational issues (21% of total estimated risk) included recommendations for removing distractions from the operating theatre, ensuring the availability of senior anaesthetists and promoting standards and flexible working among theatre staff. Devices and equipment (19% of total estimated risk) could be improved by training and standardisation; airway control and temperature monitoring were identified as two specific areas. Pre-assessment of patients before admission to hospital (12% of estimated risk) could be improved by defining a data set for adequate pre-assessment and making this available throughout the NHS. This technique can be successfully applied by healthcare staff but expert facilitation of groups is advisable. Such wider-ranging processes can potentially lead to more comprehensive risk reduction than "single-issue" risk alerts.
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Aston, Louise M; Smith, James N; Powles, John W
2012-01-01
Consumption of red and processed meat (RPM) is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and high intakes of these foods increase the risks of several leading chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to use newly derived estimates of habitual meat intakes in UK adults to assess potential co-benefits to health and the environment from reduced RPM consumption. Modelling study using dietary intake data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of British Adults. British general population. Respondents were divided into fifths by energy-adjusted RPM intakes, with vegetarians constituting a sixth stratum. GHG emitted in supplying the diets of each stratum was estimated using data from life-cycle analyses. A feasible counterfactual UK population was specified, in which the proportion of vegetarians measured in the survey population doubled, and the remainder adopted the dietary pattern of the lowest fifth of RPM consumers. Reductions in risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes and colorectal cancer, and GHG emissions, under the counterfactual. Habitual RPM intakes were 2.5 times higher in the top compared with the bottom fifth of consumers. Under the counterfactual, statistically significant reductions in population aggregate risks ranged from 3.2% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.7) for diabetes in women to 12.2% (6.4 to 18.0) for colorectal cancer in men, with those moving from the highest to lowest consumption levels gaining about twice these averages. The expected reduction in GHG emissions was 0.45 tonnes CO(2) equivalent/person/year, about 3% of the current total, giving a reduction across the UK population of 27.8 million tonnes/year. Reduced consumption of RPM would bring multiple benefits to health and environment.
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Villarruel, Antonia M.; Cherry, Carol Loveland; Cabriales, Esther Gallegos; Ronis, David L.; Zhou, Yan
2009-01-01
This article reports results of a randomized controlled trial designed to test an intervention to increase parent–adolescent sexual risk communication among Mexican parents. Data were analyzed from parents (n = 791) randomly assigned to an HTV risk reduction or health promotion intervention. Measures were administered at pretest, posttest, and 6– and 12–month follow–ups. Generalized estimation equation (GEE) analysis indicates parents in the HIV risk reduction intervention reported significantly more general communication (p < .005), more sexual risk communication (p < .001) and more comfort with communication (p < .001) than parents in the control intervention. Behavioral, normative, and control beliefs significantly mediated the effect of the intervention on all communication outcomes. This study demonstrates the efficacy of an intervention to increase the quality and quantity of parent–adolescent communication related to general and sex–specific communication. PMID:18956979
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Metabolic syndrome and ischemic stroke risk: Northern Manhattan Study.
Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Sacco, Ralph L; Lee, Hye-Sueng; Grahame-Clarke, Cairistine; Rundek, Tanja; Elkind, Mitchell V; Wright, Clinton; Giardina, Elsa-Grace V; DiTullio, Marco R; Homma, Shunichi; Paik, Myunghee C
2008-01-01
More than 47 million individuals in the United States meet the criteria for the metabolic syndrome. The relation between the metabolic syndrome and stroke risk in multiethnic populations has not been well characterized. As part of the Northern Manhattan Study, 3298 stroke-free community residents were prospectively followed up for a mean of 6.4 years. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to guidelines established by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for ischemic stroke and vascular events (ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death). The etiologic fraction estimates the proportion of events attributable to the metabolic syndrome. More than 44% of the cohort had the metabolic syndrome (48% of women vs 38% of men, P<0.0001), which was more prevalent among Hispanics (50%) than whites (39%) or blacks (37%). The metabolic syndrome was associated with increased risk of stroke (HR=1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2) and vascular events (HR=1.6; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0) after adjustment for sociodemographic and risk factors. The effect of the metabolic syndrome on stroke risk was greater among women (HR=2.0; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.1) than men (HR=1.1; 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.9) and among Hispanics (HR=2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.4) compared with blacks and whites. The etiologic fraction estimates suggest that elimination of the metabolic syndrome would result in a 19% reduction in overall stroke, a 30% reduction of stroke in women; and a 35% reduction of stroke among Hispanics. The metabolic syndrome is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke, with differential effects by sex and race/ethnicity.
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Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers
Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.
2012-01-01
Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abercromby, Andrew F. J.; Conkin, Johnny; Gernhardt, Michael L.
2015-04-01
NASA's plans for future human exploration missions utilize a new atmosphere of 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2 to enable rapid extravehicular activity (EVA) capability with minimal gas losses; however, existing EVA prebreathe protocols to mitigate risk of decompression sickness (DCS) are not applicable to the new exploration atmosphere. We provide preliminary analysis of a 15-min prebreathe protocol and examine the potential benefits of intermittent recompression (IR) and an abbreviated N2 purge on crew time and gas consumables usage. A probabilistic model of decompression stress based on an established biophysical model of DCS risk was developed, providing significant (p<0.0001) prediction and goodness-of-fit with 84 cases of DCS in 668 human altitude exposures including a variety of pressure profiles. DCS risk for a 15-min prebreathe protocol was then estimated under different exploration EVA scenarios. Estimated DCS risk for all EVA scenarios modeled using the 15-min prebreathe protocol ranged between 6.1% and 12.1%. Supersaturation in neurological tissues (5- and 10-min half-time compartments) is prevented and tissue tensions in faster half-time compartments (≤40 min), where the majority of whole-body N2 is located, are reduced to about the levels (30.0 vs. 27.6 kPa) achieved during a standard Shuttle prebreathe protocol. IR reduced estimated DCS risk from 9.7% to 7.9% (1.8% reduction) and from 8.4% to 6.1% (2.3% reduction) for the scenarios modeled; the penalty of N2 reuptake during IR may be outweighed by the benefit of decreased bubble size. Savings of 75% of purge gas and time (0.22 kg gas and 6 min of crew time per person per EVA) are achievable by abbreviating the EVA suit purge to 20% N2 vs. 5% N2 at the expense of an increase in estimated DCS risk from 9.7% to 12.1% (2.4% increase). A 15-min prebreathe protocol appears feasible using the new exploration atmosphere. IR between EVAs may enable reductions in suit purge and prebreathe requirements, decompression stress, and/or suit operating pressures. Ground trial validation is required before operational implementation.
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Influence of safety measures on the risks of transporting dangerous goods through road tunnels.
Saccomanno, Frank; Haastrup, Palle
2002-12-01
Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.
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Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.
O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani
2015-10-01
"Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious.
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Valuation of Reductions in Human Health Symptoms and Risks. Volumes I-V (1985-1986)
A series of reports were prepared under a grant awarded to the University of Chicago for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency focusing on estimating the human health benefits of pollution control.
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Corcelles, Ricard; Vidal, Josep; Delgado, Salvadora; Ibarzabal, Ainitze; Bravo, Raquel; Momblan, Dulce; Espert, Juanjo; Morales, Xavi; Almenara, Raúl; Lacy, Antonio M
2014-01-01
The major goal of surgical treatment in morbid obesity is to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with excess weight. In this sense, the main factors of death are cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of gastric bypass on cardiovascular risk estimation in patients after bariatric surgery. We retrospectively evaluated pre and postoperative cardiovascular risk estimation of 402 morbidly obese patients who underwent laparoscopic gastric bypass. The major variable studied is the cardiovascular risk estimation that is calculated preoperatively and after 12 months. Cardiovascular risk estimation analysis has been performed with the REGICOR Equation. REGICOR formulation allows calculating a 10 year risk of cardiovascular events adapted to the Spanish population and is expressed in percentages. We reported an overall 4.1±3.0 mean basal REGICOR score. One year after the operation, cardiovascular risk estimation significantly decreased to 2,2±1,6 (P<.001). In patients with metabolic syndrome according to ATP-III criteria, basal REGICOR score was 4.8±3.1 whereas in no metabolic syndrome patients 2.2±1.8. Evaluation 12 months after surgery, determined a significant reduction in both groups (metabolic syndrome and non metabolic syndrome) with a mean REGICOR score of 2.3±1.6 and 1.6±1.0 respectively. The results of our study demonstrate favorable effects of gastric bypass on the cardiovascular risk factors included in the REGICOR equation. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
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Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.
2011-01-01
Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Amin, Neha P., E-mail: npamin@gmail.com; Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale
2013-10-01
Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were createdmore » for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.« less
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Adverse Selection and Inertia in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts.
Handel, Benjamin R
2013-12-01
This paper investigates consumer inertia in health insurance markets, where adverse selection is a potential concern. We leverage a major change to insurance provision that occurred at a large firm to identify substantial inertia, and develop and estimate a choice model that also quantifies risk preferences and ex ante health risk. We use these estimates to study the impact of policies that nudge consumers toward better decisions by reducing inertia. When aggregated, these improved individual-level choices substantially exacerbate adverse selection in our setting, leading to an overall reduction in welfare that doubles the existing welfare loss from adverse selection.
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Evaluating health risks from occupational exposure to pesticides and the regulatory response.
Woodruff, T J; Kyle, A D; Bois, F Y
1994-01-01
In this study, we used measurements of occupational exposures to pesticides in agriculture to evaluate health risks and analyzed how the federal regulatory program is addressing these risks. Dose estimates developed by the State of California from measured occupational exposures to 41 pesticides were compared to standard indices of acute toxicity (LD50) and chronic effects (reference dose). Lifetime cancer risks were estimated using cancer potencies. Estimated absorbed daily doses for mixers, loaders, and applicators of pesticides ranged from less than 0.0001% to 48% of the estimated human LD50 values, and doses for 10 of 40 pesticides exceeded 1% of the estimated human LD50 values. Estimated lifetime absorbed daily doses ranged from 0.1% to 114,000% of the reference doses developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and doses for 13 of 25 pesticides were above them. Lifetime cancer risks ranged from 1 per million to 1700 per million, and estimates for 12 of 13 pesticides were above 1 per million. Similar results were obtained for field workers and flaggers. For the pesticides examined, exposures pose greater risks of chronic effects than acute effects. Exposure reduction measures, including use of closed mixing systems and personal protective equipment, significantly reduced exposures. Proposed regulations rely primarily on requirements for personal protective equipment and use restrictions to protect workers. Chronic health risks are not considered in setting these requirements. Reviews of pesticides by the federal pesticide regulatory program have had little effect on occupational risks. Policy strategies that offer immediate protection for workers and that are not dependent on extensive review of individual pesticides should be pursued. Images Figure 1. PMID:7713022
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sánchez-Ortiz, Noelia; Domínguez-González, Raúl; Krag, Holger
2015-03-01
One of the main objectives of Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) systems is to support space collision avoidance activities. This collision avoidance capability aims to significantly reduce the catastrophic collision risk of space objects. In particular, for the case of the future European SST, the objective is translated into a risk reduction of one order of magnitude whilst keeping a low number of false alarm events. In order to translate this aim into system requirements, an evaluation of the current catastrophic collision risk for different orbital regimes is addressed. The reduction of such risk depends on the amount of catalogued objects (coverage) and the knowledge of the associated orbits in the catalogue (accuracy). This paper presents an analysis of the impact of those two aspects in the capability to reduce the catastrophic collision risk at some orbital regimes. A reliable collision avoidance support depends on the accuracy of the predicted miss-events. The assessment of possible conjunctions is normally done by computing the estimated miss-distances between objects (which is compared with a defined distance threshold) or by computing the associated collision risk (which is compared with the corresponding accepted collision probability level). This second method is normally recommended because it takes into account the reliability of the orbits and allows reducing false alarm events. The collision risk depends on the estimated miss-distance, the object sizes and the accuracy of the two orbits at the time of event. This accuracy depends on the error of the orbits at the orbit determination epoch and the error derived from the propagation from that epoch up to the time of event. The modified DRAMA ARES (Domínguez-González et al., 2012, 2013a,b; Gelhaus et al., 2014) provides information on the expected number of encounters for a given mission and year. It also provides information on the capacity to reduce the risk of collision by means of avoidance manoeuvres as a function of the accepted collision probability level and the cataloguing performance of the surveillance system (determined by the limiting coverage size-altitude function and the orbital data accuracy). The assessment of avoidance strategies takes into account statistical models of the space object environment, as provided by ESA's MASTER-2009 model, and a mathematical framework for the collision risk estimation as used in satellite operations. In this papers, results are provided for some orbit types, covering different orbital regimes. The analysis is done for different cataloguing capacity levels (accuracy and coverage), concluding that 5 cm are to be covered at LEO for diminishing the catastrophic collision risk by one order of magnitude. For MEO and GEO regime, coverage down to 40 and 100 cm respectively allow similar reduction of risk.
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Skedgel, Chris; Rayson, Daniel; Younis, Tallal
2016-01-01
Febrile neutropenia (FN) during adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with morbidity, mortality risk, and substantial cost, and subsequent chemotherapy dose reductions may result in poorer outcomes. Patients at high risk of, or who develop FN, often receive prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF). We investigated whether different prophylaxis strategies with G-CSF offered favorable value-for-money. We developed a decision model to estimate the short- and long-term costs and outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of women with breast cancer receiving adjuvant taxotere + cyclophosphamide (TC) chemotherapy. The short-term phase estimated upfront costs and FN risks with adjuvant TC chemotherapy without G-CSF prophylaxis (i.e., chemotherapy dose reductions) as well as with secondary and primary G-CSF prophylaxis strategies. The long-term phase estimated the expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for patients who completed adjuvant TC chemotherapy with or without one or more episodes of FN. Secondary G-CSF was associated with lower costs and greater QALY gains than a no G-CSF strategy. Primary G-CSF appears likely to be cost-effective relative to secondary G-CSF at FN rates greater than 28%, assuming some loss of chemotherapy efficacy at lower dose intensities. The cost-effectiveness of primary vs. secondary G-CSF was sensitive to FN risk and mortality, and loss of chemotherapy efficacy following FN. Secondary G-CSF is more effective and less costly than a no G-CSF strategy. Primary G-CSF may be justified at higher willingness-to-pay thresholds and/or higher FN risks, but this threshold FN risk appears to be higher than the 20% rate recommended by current clinical guidelines.
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The global distribution of risk factors by poverty level.
Blakely, Tony; Hales, Simon; Kieft, Charlotte; Wilson, Nick; Woodward, Alistair
2005-01-01
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the individual-level association of income poverty with being underweight, using tobacco, drinking alcohol, having access only to unsafe water and sanitation, being exposed to indoor air pollution and being obese. METHODS: Using survey data for as many countries as possible, we estimated the relative risk association between income or assets and risk factors at the individual level within 11 medium- and low-income subregions of WHO. WHO and The World Bank data on the prevalence of risk factors and income poverty (defined as living on < US$ 1.00 per day, US$ 1-2.00 per day and > US$ 2.00 per day) were analysed to impute the association between poverty and risk factors for each subregion. The possible effect of poverty reduction on the prevalence of risk factors was estimated using population-attributable risk percentages. FINDINGS: There were strong associations between poverty and malnutrition among children, having access only to unsafe water and sanitation, and being exposed to indoor air pollution within each subregion (relative risks were twofold to threefold greater for those living on < US$ 1.00 per day compared with those living on > US$ 2.00 per day). Associations between poverty and obesity, tobacco use and alcohol use varied across subregions. If everyone living on < US$ 2.00 per day had the risk factor profile of those living on > US$ 2.00 per day, 51% of exposures to unimproved water and sanitation could be avoided as could 37% of malnutrition among children and 38% of exposure to indoor air pollution. The more realistic, but still challenging, Millennium Development Goal of halving the number of people living on < US$ 1.00 per day would achieve much smaller reductions. CONCLUSION: To achieve large gains in global health requires both poverty eradication and public health action. The methods used in this study may be useful for monitoring pro-equity progress towards Millennium Development Goals. PMID:15744404
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Alexander, Dominik D; Miller, Paige E; Van Elswyk, Mary E; Kuratko, Connye N; Bylsma, Lauren C
2017-01-01
To conduct meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to estimate the effect of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acid (EPA+DHA) on coronary heart disease (CHD), and to conduct meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies to estimate the association between EPA+DHA intake and CHD risk. A systematic literature search of Ovid/Medline, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 1947, to November 2, 2015, was conducted; 18 RCTs and 16 prospective cohort studies examining EPA+DHA from foods or supplements and CHD, including myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, coronary death, and angina, were identified. Random-effects meta-analysis models were used to generate summary relative risk estimates (SRREs) and 95% CIs. Heterogeneity was examined in subgroup and sensitivity analyses and by meta-regression. Dose-response was evaluated in stratified dose or intake analyses. Publication bias assessments were performed. Among RCTs, there was a nonstatistically significant reduction in CHD risk with EPA+DHA provision (SRRE=0.94; 95% CI, 0.85-1.05). Subgroup analyses of data from RCTs indicated a statistically significant CHD risk reduction with EPA+DHA provision among higher-risk populations, including participants with elevated triglyceride levels (SRRE=0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.98) and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (SRRE=0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.98). Meta-analysis of data from prospective cohort studies resulted in a statistically significant SRRE of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.92) for higher intakes of EPA+DHA and risk of any CHD event. Results indicate that EPA+DHA may be associated with reducing CHD risk, with a greater benefit observed among higher-risk populations in RCTs. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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McAlister, Finlay A; Grover, Steven; Padwal, Raj S; Youngson, Erik; Fradette, Miriam; Thompson, Ann; Buck, Brian; Dean, Naeem; Tsuyuki, Ross T; Shuaib, Ashfaq; Majumdar, Sumit R
2014-12-01
Survivors of ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high risk for other vascular events. We evaluated the impact of 2 types of case management (hard touch with pharmacist or soft touch with nurse) added to usual care on global vascular risk. This is a prespecified secondary analysis of a 6-month trial conducted in outpatients with recent stroke/TIA who received usual care and were randomized to additional monthly visits with either nurse case managers (who counseled patients, monitored risk factors, and communicated results to primary care physicians) or pharmacist case managers (who were also able to independently prescribe according to treatment algorithms). The Framingham Risk Score [FRS]) and the Cardiovascular Disease Life Expectancy Model (CDLEM) were used to estimate 10-year risk of any vascular event at baseline, 6 months (trial conclusion), and 12 months (6 months after last trial visit). Mean age of the 275 evaluable patients was 67.6 years. Both study arms were well balanced at baseline and exhibited reductions in absolute global vascular risk estimates at 6 months: median 4.8% (Interquartile range (IQR) 0.3%-11.3%) for the pharmacist arm versus 5.1% (IQR 1.9%-12.5%) for the nurse arm on the FRS (P = .44 between arms) and median 10.0% (0.1%-31.6%) versus 12.5% (2.1%-30.5%) on the CDLEM (P = .37). These reductions persisted at 12 months: median 6.4% (1.2%-11.6%) versus 5.5% (2.0%-12.0%) for the FRS (P = .83) and median 8.4% (0.1%-28.3%) versus 13.1% (1.6%-31.6%) on the CDLEM (P = .20). Case management by nonphysician providers is associated with improved global vascular risk in patients with recent stroke/TIA. Reductions achieved during the active phase of the trial persisted after trial conclusion. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Estimating and Valuing Morbidity in a Policy Context: Proceedings of June 1989 AERE Workshop (1989)
Contains the proceedings for the 1989 Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Workshop on valuing reductions in human health morbidity risks. Series of papers and discussions were collected and reported in the document.
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The Use of ICP-MS and IC-ICP-MS in Environmental and Exposure Assesssment
OVERVIEW: Application of collision/reaction cell interference reduction technology for the minimization of polyatomic interferences in environmental matrices. Improved risk assessments through the use of arsenic speciation approaches that estimate the bio-accessibility asso...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna
2018-01-01
Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.
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Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.
2004-01-01
Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.
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Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher
2013-08-01
We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kelly, John C.; Sigal, Burton C.; Gindorf, Tom
2000-01-01
The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.
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Characterization of drinking water treatment for virus risk assessment.
Teunis, P F M; Rutjes, S A; Westrell, T; de Roda Husman, A M
2009-02-01
Removal or inactivation of viruses in drinking water treatment processes can be quantified by measuring the concentrations of viruses or virus indicators in water before and after treatment. Virus reduction is then calculated from the ratio of these concentrations. Most often only the average reduction is reported. That is not sufficient when treatment efficiency must be characterized in quantitative risk assessment. We present three simple models allowing statistical analysis of series of counts before and after treatment: distribution of the ratio of concentrations, and distribution of the probability of passage for unpaired and paired water samples. Performance of these models is demonstrated for several processes (long and short term storage, coagulation/filtration, coagulation/sedimentation, slow sand filtration, membrane filtration, and ozone disinfection) using microbial indicator data from full-scale treatment processes. All three models allow estimation of the variation in (log) reduction as well as its uncertainty; the results can be easily used in risk assessment. Although they have different characteristics and are present in vastly different concentrations, different viruses and/or bacteriophages appear to show similar reductions in a particular treatment process, allowing generalization of the reduction for each process type across virus groups. The processes characterized in this paper may be used as reference for waterborne virus risk assessment, to check against location specific data, and in case no such data are available, to use as defaults.
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Merler, Enzo
2009-01-01
The article reviews the estimates of Attributable Fraction (AF) of occupational cancers. Because of their relevance, it starts with a synthesis and a comment on the estimates of avoidable cancers, and among these of cancers due to occupation, as expressed in 1981 by Doll and Peto. The main studies that have brought back into the epidemiological pathway the exercise of producing FA are quoted and the results of the new studies reviewed. The dimension of occupational cancers is of public health importance, because caused by exposures assumed to be avoidable. However, the estimates of AF are prone to uncertainties and limitations. Occupational cancers represent the major killer among deaths due to occupational diseases and injuries and a relevant fraction, especially among males, of total cancers. When related to developed countries, estimates may underestimate the risks, because of the insufficient data on exposures for workers in small firms, the lack of information on exposures in agriculture, the scanty availability of epidemiological studies on cancer risks among women. The trend towards a reduction of employees in industrial activities, the elimination or control of some exposures should suggest, instead, a reduction for occupational cancer. However, the more recent estimates of AF of occupational cancers are still in line with the estimates expressed more that 20 years ago. In developing countries, the estimates of AF are plenty of assumptions. In addition, some characteristics (i.e. the younger age of starting work, the extension of work at older age) suggest the need of better data, whereas information on exposures and events are dramatically lacking.
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Road trauma among young Australians: Implementing policy to reduce road deaths and serious injury.
Walker, Clara; Thompson, Jason; Stevenson, Mark
2017-05-19
The objective of this study was to estimate the likely reduction in road trauma associated with the implementation of effective interventions to reduce road trauma among young Australians. A desktop evaluation was conducted to model the likely reduction in road trauma (deaths and serious injuries resulting in hospitalization) among young people aged 17-24 years residing in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Potential interventions were identified using a rapid literature review and assigned a score based on evidence of effectiveness and implementation feasibility with the 3 highest scoring interventions included in the modeling. Likely reduction in road trauma was estimated by applying the average risk reduction effect sizes for each intervention to baseline risk (passenger or driver death or serious injury per 100,000 population) of road trauma for young Australians. Point estimates were calculated for the potential number of deaths and serious injuries averted in each state and per 100,000 population, with a one-way sensitivity analysis conducted using uncertainty ranges identified. Peer passenger and night driving restrictions as well as improved vehicle safety measures had the greatest potential to reduce road trauma. Peer passenger restrictions could avert 14 (range: 5-24) and 24 (range: 8-41) hospitalizations per year in Queensland and New South Wales, respectively, and night driving restrictions could avert 17 (range: 7-26), 28 (range: 12-45), and 13 (range: 6-21) hospitalizations annually in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. These interventions reduced fatalities by less than 1 death annually in each state. Improved vehicle safety measures could avert 0-3, 0-4, and 0-3 deaths and 3-91, 4-156, and 2-75 hospitalizations in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Key elements of graduated licensing (peer passenger and night driving restrictions) along with vehicle safety interventions offer modest but practically significant reductions in road trauma for young Australians. State governments need to revise current legislation to ensure that these reductions in road trauma can be realized.
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Reliability Assessment Of Conceptual Launch Vehicles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bloomer, Lisa A.
2005-01-01
Planning is underway for new NASA missions to the moon and to MARS. These missions carry a great deal of risk, as the Challenger and Columbia accidents demonstrate. In order to minimize the risks to the crew and the mission, risk reduction must be done at every stage, not only in quality manufacturing, but also in design. It is necessary, therefore, to be able to compare the risks posed in different launch vehicle designs. Further, these designs have not yet been implemented, so it is necessary to compare these risks without being able to test the vehicles themselves. This paper will discuss some of the issues involved in this type of comparison. It will start with a general discussion of reliability estimation. It will continue with a short look at some software designed to make this estimation easier and faster. It will conclude with a few recommendations for future tools.
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Lung Cancer Risk Models for Screening (R package: lcrisks)
In both the absence and presence of screening, the R package lcrisks, calculates individual risks of lung cancer and lung cancer death based on covariates: age, education, sex, race, smoking intensity/duration/quit-years, Body Mass Index, family history of lung-cancer, and self-reported emphysema. In the presence of CT screening akin to the NLST (3 yearly screens, 5 years of follow-up), it uses the covariates to estimate risk of false-positive CT screen as well as the reduction in risk of lung cancer death and increase in risk of lung cancer screening.
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Tobacco Smoke–Related Health Effects Induced by 1,3-Butadiene and Strategies for Risk Reduction
Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G.
2013-01-01
1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a smoke component selected by the World Health Organization (WHO) study group on Tobacco Product Regulation (TobReg) for mandated lowering. We examined the tobacco smoke–related health effects induced by BD and possible health impacts of risk reduction strategies. BD levels in mainstream smoke (MSS) from international and Canadian cigarettes and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) were derived from scientific journals and international government reports. Dose-response analyses from toxicity studies from government reports were evaluated and the most sensitive cancer and noncancer endpoints were selected. The risks were evaluated by taking the ratio (margin of exposure, MOE) from the most sensitive toxicity endpoint and appropriate exposure estimates for BD in MSS and ETS. BD is a good choice for lowering given that MSS and ETS were at levels for cancer (leukemia) and noncancer (ovarian atrophy) risks, and the risks can be significantly lowered when lowering the BD concentrations in smoke. Several risk reduction strategies were analyzed including a maximum level of 125% of the median BD value per milligram nicotine obtained from international brands as recommended by the WHO TobReg, tobacco substitute sheets, dual and triple carbon filters, and polymer-derived carbon. The use of tobacco substitute sheet with a polymer-derived carbon filter resulted in the most significant change in risk for cancer and noncancer effects. Our results demonstrate that MOE analysis might be a practical way to assess the impact of risk reduction strategies on human health in the future. PMID:24014643
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O’Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B.; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Bellamy, Scarlett; Ngwane, Zolani; Icard, Larry
2015-01-01
Background “Let Us Protect Our Future” is a sexual risk-reduction intervention for sixth-grade adolescents in South Africa. Tested in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, the intervention significantly reduced self-reported intercourse and unprotected intercourse during a 12-month follow-up period. Purpose The present analyses were conducted to identify moderators of the intervention’s efficacy as well as which theory-based variables mediated the intervention’s effects. Methods: Intervention efficacy over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups was tested using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Results Living with their father in the home, parental strictness, and religiosity moderated the efficacy of the intervention in reducing unprotected intercourse. Self-efficacy to avoid risky situations and expected parental disapproval of their having intercourse, derived from Social Cognitive Theory, significantly mediated the intervention’s effect on abstinence. Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate that Social Cognitive variables mediate the efficacy of a sexual risk-reduction intervention among South African adolescents. PMID:22618963
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Silveira, Mariangela F; Victora, Cesar G; Horta, Bernardo L; da Silva, Bruna G C; Matijasevich, Alicia; Barros, Fernando C
2018-06-22
Despite positive changes in most maternal risk factors in Brazil, previous studies did not show reductions in preterm birth and low birthweight. We analysed trends and inequalities in these outcomes over a 33-year period in a Brazilian city. Four population-based birth cohort studies were carried out in the city of Pelotas in 1982, 1993, 2004 and 2015, with samples ranging from 4231 to 5914 liveborn children. Low birthweight (LBW) was defined as <2500 g, and preterm birth as less than 37 weeks of gestation. Information was collected on family income, maternal skin colour and other risk factors for low birthweight. Multivariable linear regression was used to estimate the contribution of risk factors to time trends in birthweight. Preterm births increased from 5.8% (1982) to 13.8% (2015), and LBW prevalence increased from 9.0% to 10.1%, being higher for boys and for children born to mothers with low income and brown or black skin colour. Mean birthweight remained stable, around 3200 g, but increased from 3058 to 3146 g in the poorest quintile and decreased from 3307 to 3227 g in the richest quintile. After adjustment for risk factors for LBW, mean birthweight was estimated to have declined by 160 g over 1982-2015 (reductions of 103 g in the poorest and 213 g in the richest quintiles). Data from four birth cohorts show that preterm births increased markedly. Mean birthweights remained stable over a 33-year period. Increased prevalence of preterm and early term births, associated with high levels of obstetric interventions, has offset the expected improvements due to reduction in risk factors for low birthweight.
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Thermal inactivation of Salmonella spp. in pork burger patties.
Gurman, P M; Ross, T; Holds, G L; Jarrett, R G; Kiermeier, A
2016-02-16
Predictive models, to estimate the reduction in Escherichia coli O157:H7 concentration in beef burgers, have been developed to inform risk management decisions; no analogous model exists for Salmonella spp. in pork burgers. In this study, "Extra Lean" and "Regular" fat pork minces were inoculated with Salmonella spp. (Salmonella 4,[5],12,i:-, Salmonella Senftenberg and Salmonella Typhimurium) and formed into pork burger patties. Patties were cooked on an electric skillet (to imitate home cooking) to one of seven internal temperatures (46, 49, 52, 55, 58, 61, 64 °C) and Salmonella enumerated. A generalised linear logistic regression model was used to develop a predictive model for the Salmonella concentration based on the internal endpoint temperature. It was estimated that in pork mince with a fat content of 6.1%, Salmonella survival will be decreased by -0.2407log10 CFU/g for a 1 °C increase in internal endpoint temperature, with a 5-log10 reduction in Salmonella concentration estimated to occur when the geometric centre temperature reaches 63 °C. The fat content influenced the rate of Salmonella inactivation (P=0.043), with Salmonella survival increasing as fat content increased, though this effect became negligible as the temperature approached 62 °C. Fat content increased the time required for patties to achieve a specified internal temperature (P=0.0106 and 0.0309 for linear and quadratic terms respectively), indicating that reduced fat pork mince may reduce the risk of salmonellosis from consumption of pork burgers. Salmonella serovar did not significantly affect the model intercepts (P=0.86) or slopes (P=0.10) of the fitted logistic curve. This predictive model can be applied to estimate the reduction in Salmonella in pork burgers after cooking to a specific endpoint temperature and hence to assess food safety risk. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Salgado, Diana; Torres, J Antonio; Welti-Chanes, Jorge; Velazquez, Gonzalo
2011-08-01
Consumer demand for food safety and quality improvements, combined with new regulations, requires determining the processor's confidence level that processes lowering safety risks while retaining quality will meet consumer expectations and regulatory requirements. Monte Carlo calculation procedures incorporate input data variability to obtain the statistical distribution of the output of prediction models. This advantage was used to analyze the survival risk of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (M. paratuberculosis) and Clostridium botulinum spores in high-temperature short-time (HTST) milk and canned mushrooms, respectively. The results showed an estimated 68.4% probability that the 15 sec HTST process would not achieve at least 5 decimal reductions in M. paratuberculosis counts. Although estimates of the raw milk load of this pathogen are not available to estimate the probability of finding it in pasteurized milk, the wide range of the estimated decimal reductions, reflecting the variability of the experimental data available, should be a concern to dairy processors. Knowledge of the C. botulinum initial load and decimal thermal time variability was used to estimate an 8.5 min thermal process time at 110 °C for canned mushrooms reducing the risk to 10⁻⁹ spores/container with a 95% confidence. This value was substantially higher than the one estimated using average values (6.0 min) with an unacceptable 68.6% probability of missing the desired processing objective. Finally, the benefit of reducing the variability in initial load and decimal thermal time was confirmed, achieving a 26.3% reduction in processing time when standard deviation values were lowered by 90%. In spite of novel technologies, commercialized or under development, thermal processing continues to be the most reliable and cost-effective alternative to deliver safe foods. However, the severity of the process should be assessed to avoid under- and over-processing and determine opportunities for improvement. This should include a systematic approach to consider variability in the parameters for the models used by food process engineers when designing a thermal process. The Monte Carlo procedure here presented is a tool to facilitate this task for the determination of process time at a constant lethal temperature. © 2011 Institute of Food Technologists®
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Barker, S Fiona; Packer, Michael; Scales, Peter J; Gray, Stephen; Snape, Ian; Hamilton, Andrew J
2013-09-01
Small, remote communities often have limited access to energy and water. Direct potable reuse of treated wastewater has recently gained attention as a potential solution for water-stressed regions, but requires further evaluation specific to small communities. The required pathogen reduction needed for safe implementation of direct potable reuse of treated sewage is an important consideration but these are typically quantified for larger communities and cities. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was conducted, using norovirus, giardia and Campylobacter as reference pathogens, to determine the level of treatment required to meet the tolerable annual disease burden of 10(-6) DALYs per person per year, using Davis Station in Antarctica as an example of a small remote community. Two scenarios were compared: published municipal sewage pathogen loads and estimated pathogen loads during a gastroenteritis outbreak. For the municipal sewage scenario, estimated required log10 reductions were 6.9, 8.0 and 7.4 for norovirus, giardia and Campylobacter respectively, while for the outbreak scenario the values were 12.1, 10.4 and 12.3 (95th percentiles). Pathogen concentrations are higher under outbreak conditions as a function of the relatively greater degree of contact between community members in a small population, compared with interactions in a large city, resulting in a higher proportion of the population being at risk of infection and illness. While the estimates of outbreak conditions may overestimate sewage concentration to some degree, the results suggest that additional treatment barriers would be required to achieve regulatory compliance for safe drinking water in small communities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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O’Brien, Matthew J.; Whitaker, Robert C.; Yu, Daohai; Ackermann, Ronald T.
2015-01-01
Objective Educational attainment is inversely associated with type 2 diabetes risk, but it is unknown whether education impacts individuals’ diabetes prevention efforts. We examined the comparative efficacy of intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin by educational attainment among participants in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), an ongoing U.S. multi-site trial beginning in 1996. Methods We studied 2,910 DPP participants randomized to receive lifestyle intervention, metformin, or placebo. Stratifying by educational attainment, diabetes incidence and relative risk reductions by treatment assignment were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results 47% of participants had completed college and 53% had not. Compared to placebo, lifestyle participants who had completed college demonstrated a 68% reduction in diabetes incidence (95% CI=56, 77), whereas those with less education experienced a 47% risk reduction (95% CI=29, 61). For metformin participants, college graduates experienced a 49% relative risk reduction (95% CI=33, 62), compared to 23% (95% CI=1, 41) among those with lower educational attainment. There was a statistically significant education-by-treatment interaction with incident diabetes (p=0.03). Conclusions Intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin have greater efficacy among highly educated individuals. Future efforts to deliver these treatments and study their dissemination may be more effective if tailored to individuals’ educational background. PMID:26024851
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Phillips, Carl V; Guenzel, Brian; Bergen, Paul
2006-04-18
Anti-harm-reduction advocates sometimes resort to pseudo-analogies to ridicule harm reduction. Those opposed to the use of smokeless tobacco as an alternative to smoking sometimes suggest that the substitution would be like jumping from a 3 story building rather than 10 story, or like shooting yourself in the foot rather than the head. These metaphors are grossly inappropriate for several reasons, notably including the fact that they are misleading about the actual risk levels. Based on the available literature on mortality from falls, we estimate that smoking presents a mortality risk similar to a fall of about 4 stories, while mortality risk from smokeless tobacco is no worse than that from an almost certainly non-fatal fall from less than 2 stories. Other metaphors are similarly misleading. These metaphors, like other false and misleading anti-harm-reduction statements are inherently unethical attempts to prevent people from learning accurate health information. Moreover, they implicitly provide bad advice about health behavior priorities and are intended to persuade people to stick with a behavior that is more dangerous than an available alternative. Finally, the metaphors exhibit a flippant tone that seems inappropriate for a serious discussion of health science.
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O'Brien, Matthew J; Whitaker, Robert C; Yu, Daohai; Ackermann, Ronald T
2015-08-01
Educational attainment is inversely associated with type 2 diabetes risk, but it is unknown whether education impacts individuals' diabetes prevention efforts. We examined the comparative efficacy of intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin by educational attainment among participants in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), an ongoing U.S. multi-site trial beginning in 1996. We studied 2,910 DPP participants randomized to receive lifestyle intervention, metformin, or placebo. Stratifying by educational attainment, diabetes incidence and relative risk reductions by treatment assignment were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. 47% of participants had completed college and 53% had not. Compared to placebo, lifestyle participants who had completed college demonstrated a 68% reduction in diabetes incidence (95% CI=56, 77), whereas those with less education experienced a 47% risk reduction (95% CI=29, 61). For metformin participants, college graduates experienced a 49% relative risk reduction (95% CI=33, 62), compared to 23% (95% CI=1, 41) among those with lower educational attainment. There was a statistically significant education-by-treatment interaction with incident diabetes (p=0.03). Intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin have greater efficacy among highly educated individuals. Future efforts to deliver these treatments and study their dissemination may be more effective if tailored to individuals' educational background. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Velocity Estimation Using Forward Looking Sonar
2007-03-01
and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2...capabilities are demonstrated. The use of unmanned vehicles as force multipliers and also as risk reducers has been directed within Sea Power 21. In the...unmanned vehicles, as it reduces risk to personnel. In some instances, such as mine hunting, the unmanned vehicles are capable of performing the
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Carrier air wing mishap reduction using a human factors classification system and risk management.
Belland, Kxis M; Olsen, Cara; Lawry, Russell
2010-11-01
In 1998, the Navy's center of excellence for advanced air wing combat operations, namely the Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC), had a spike in Class A flight mishaps. The spike triggered an intense review of prior mishaps and current mishap-reduction practices using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The review resulted in NSAWC instituting a comprehensive multifactorial mishap reduction plan applying Operational Risk Management (ORM) precepts. This is a nonrandomized investigational study with use of a historical comparison population. The Class A mishap rate per flight hour covering 10 yr prior to the mishap reduction efforts was estimated and compared to the Class A mishap rate per flight hour for the 10 yr after implementation using Poisson regression. Combined Fleet and NSAWC data shows a 27% reduction in mishap rate, but the 21% reduction in the Fleet alone was not statistically significant. The mishap reduction at NSAWC was statistically significant with an 84% reduction. Fallon carrier air wing mishap rates post-ORM mishap reduction efforts are approaching those seen in the Fleet, but are still elevated overall (3.7 vs. 2.4). The incidence rate ratio was 80% lower at Fallon than the rest of the Fleet, indicating a significantly greater reduction in NSAWC air wing mishaps and suggests focused aviation mishap reduction efforts in similar circumstances could result in similar reductions.
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Koçkaya, Güvenç; Wertheimer, Albert
2011-06-01
The current study was designed to calculate the direct cost of noncompliance of hypertensive patients to the US health system. Understanding these expenses can inform screening and education budget policy regarding expenditure levels that can be calculated to be cost-beneficial. The study was conducted in 3 parts. First, a computer search of National Institutes of Health Web sites and professional society Web sites for organizations with members that treat hypertension, and a PubMed search were performed to obtain the numbers required for calculations. Second, formulas were developed to estimate the risk of noncompliance and undiagnosed hypertension. Third, risk calculations were performed using the information obtained in part 1 and the formulas developed in part 2. Direct risk reduction for stroke caused by hypertension, heart attack, kidney disease, and heart disease was calculated for a 100% compliant strategy. Risk, case, and cost reduction for a 100% compliant strategy for hypertension were 32%, 8.5 million and US$ 72 billion, respectively. Our analysis means that the society can spend up to the cost of noncompliance in screening, education, and prevention efforts in an attempt to reduce these costly and traumatic sequelae of poorly controlled hypertension in the light of published analysis.
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Forsberg, Bertil; Hansson, Hans-Christen; Johansson, Christer; Areskoug, Hans; Persson, Karin; Järvholm, Bengt
2005-02-01
The ongoing program Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is an initiative from the EU Commission to establish a coordinated effort to reach better air quality in the EU. The focus is on particulate matter as it has been shown to have large impact on human health. CAFE requested that WHO make a review of the latest findings on air pollutants and health to facilitate assessments of the different air pollutants and their health effects. The WHO review project on health aspects of air pollution in Europe confirmed that exposure to particulate matter (PM), despite the lower levels we face today, still poses a significant risk to human health. Using the recommended uniform risk coefficients for health impact assessment of PM, regardless of sources, premature mortality related to long-range transported anthropogenic particles has been estimated to be about 3500 deaths per year for the Swedish population, corresponding to a reduction in life expectancy of up to about seven months. The influence of local sources is more difficult to estimate due to large uncertainties when linking available risk coefficients to exposure data, but the estimates indicate about 1800 deaths brought forward each year with a life expectancy reduction of about 2-3 months. However, some sectors of the population are exposed to quite high locally induced concentrations and are likely to suffer excessive reductions in life expectancy. Since the literature increasingly supports assumptions that combustion related particles are associated with higher relative risks, further studies may shift the focus for abatement strategies. CAFE sets out to establish a general cost effective abatement strategy for atmospheric particles. Our results, based on studies of background exposure, show that long-range transported sulfate rich particles dominate the health effects of PM in Sweden. The same results would be found for the whole of Scandinavia and many countries influenced by transboundary air pollution. However, several health studies, including epidemiological studies with a finer spatial resolution, indicate that engine exhaust particles are more damaging to health than other particles. These contradictory findings must be understood and source specific risk estimates have to be established by expert bodies, otherwise it will not be possible to find the most cost effective abatement strategy for Europe. We are not happy with today's situation where every strategy to reduce PM concentrations is estimated to have the same impact per unit change in the mass concentration. Obviously there is a striking need to introduce more specific exposure variables and a higher geographical resolution in epidemiology as well as in health impact assessments.
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Income Elasticity Literature Review | Science Inventory | US ...
Following advice from the SAB Council, when estimating the economic value of reductions in air pollution-related mortality and morbidity risk, EPA accounts for the effect of personal income on the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes. These income growth adjustment factors are calculated using a combination of income elasticity estimates and income growth projections, both of which have remained essentially unchanged since 1999. These income elasticity estimates vary according to the severity of illness. EPA recently received advice from the SAB regarding the range of income elasticities to apply as well as the research standards to use when selecting income elasticity estimates. Following this advice, EPA consulted with a contractor to update its income elasticity and income growth projections, and generate new income growth adjustment factors. The SAB would evaluate the income elasticity estimates identified in the EPA-provided literature review, determining the extent to which these estimates are appropriate to use in human health benefits assessments.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.
2017-12-01
Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological, geomorphological settings and ground observations from field trips. The development of NextGEOSS pilots opens up for interactions with international communities. Contributions from communities engaged in SDG activities and the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction are welcome
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Jangam, Sujit R; Hayter, Gary; Dunn, Timothy C
2018-02-01
Glycemic variability refers to oscillations in blood glucose within a day and differences in blood glucose at the same time on different days. Glycemic variability is linked to hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. The relationship among these three important metrics is examined here, specifically to show how reduction in both hypo- and hyperglycemia risk is dependent on changes in variability. To understand the importance of glycemic variability in the simultaneous reduction of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia risk, we introduce the glycemic risk plot-estimated HbA1c % (eA1c) vs. minutes below 70 mg/dl (MB70) with constant variability contours for predicting post-intervention risks in the absence of a change in glycemic variability. The glycemic risk plot illustrates that individuals who do not reduce glycemic variability improve one of the two metrics (hypoglycemia risk or hyperglycemia risk) at the cost of the other. It is important to reduce variability to improve both risks. These results were confirmed by data collected in a randomized controlled trial consisting of individuals with type 1 and type 2 diabetes on insulin therapy. For type 1, a total of 28 individuals out of 35 (80%) showed improvement in at least one of the risks (hypo and/or hyper) during the 100-day course of the study. Seven individuals (20%) showed improvement in both. Similar data were observed for type 2 where a total of 36 individuals out of 43 (84%) showed improvement in at least one risk and 8 individuals (19%) showed improvement in both. All individuals in the study who showed improvement in both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia risk also showed a reduction in variability. Therapy changes intended to improve an individual's hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia risk often result in the reduction of one risk at the expense of another. It is important to improve glucose variability to reduce both risks or at least maintain one risk while reducing the other. Abbott Diabetes Care.
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Arden, Nigel K; Hauber, A Brett; Mohamed, Ateesha F; Johnson, F Reed; Peloso, Paul M; Watson, Douglas J; Mavros, Panagiotis; Gammaitoni, Arnold; Sen, Shuvayu S; Taylor, Stephanie D
2012-05-01
To quantify the relative importance that UK physicians attach to the benefits and risks of current drugs when making treatment decisions for patients with osteoarthritis (OA). Physicians treating at least 10 patients with OA per month completed an online discrete-choice experiment survey and answered 12 treatment-choice questions comparing medication profiles. Medication profiles were defined by 4 benefits (reduction in ambulatory pain, resting pain, stiffness, and difficulty doing daily activities) and 3 treatment-related risks [bleeding ulcer, stroke, and myocardial infarction (MI)]. Each physician made medication choices for 3 of 9 hypothetical patients (varied by age, history of MI, hypertension, and history of gastrointestinal bleeding). Importance weights were estimated using a random-parameters logit model. Treatment-related risks physicians were willing to accept in exchange for various reductions in ambulatory and resting pain also were calculated. The final sample was 475. A reduction in ambulatory pain from 75 mm to 25 mm (1.6 units) was 1.1 times as important as an increase in MI risk from 0% to 1.5% (1.5 units). The greatest importance was for eliminating a 3% treatment-related risk of MI or stroke. On average, physicians were willing to accept an increase in bleeding ulcer risk of 0.7% (95% CI 0.4%-1.7%) for a reduction in ambulatory pain of 75 mm to 50 mm. When presented with well-known benefits and risks of OA treatments, physicians placed greater importance on the risks than on the analgesic properties of the drug. This has implications for the reporting of the results of clinical research to physicians.
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Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.
2002-01-01
The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.
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Hooper, Pamela J.; Chu, Brian K.; Mikhailov, Alexei; Ottesen, Eric A.; Bradley, Mark
2014-01-01
Background In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000—during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries—it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. Conclusions/Significance Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal. PMID:25411843
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Lower Risk of Cancer in the Areas Inhabited by the German Minority in the Region of Opole, Poland.
Chawińska, Ewa; Tukiendorf, Andrzej; Miszczyk, Leszek
2015-01-01
The lower risk of cancer in the areas inhabited by the German minority in the region of Opole, Poland, at the turn of the 1980's and 1990's has been already reported. A reanalysis of the present-day data was conducted. All the cancer cases (at all sites combined) registered within the years 2008-2012 with data collected by the Regional Cancer Registry in Opole were analyzed in this study. To estimate the risk of cancer in different spatial contexts, such as trends, clusters, and levels, modern geostatistical tools were applied. A statistically significant reduction of the cancer risk was reported in administrative units with ≥ 10% of the German minority. Average decreases in relative risk of 13% in men and 16% in women were estimated. The geographical patterns of the estimates are illustrated. The observed differences in the risk of cancer between the ethnic groups (Germans and repatriates) confirm a historical trend of the disease in the region of Opole, Poland. Some genetic, nutritional, or cultural aspects together with economic issues may play a role in the specified spatial disease patterns. © 2015 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.
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Aune, Dagfinn; Lau, Rosa; Chan, Doris S M; Vieira, Rui; Greenwood, Darren C; Kampman, Ellen; Norat, Teresa
2011-07-01
The association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk has been investigated by many studies but is controversial because of inconsistent results and weak observed associations. We summarized the evidence from cohort studies in categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response meta-analyses. We searched PubMed for studies of fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk that were published until the end of May 2010. We included 19 prospective studies that reported relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer-associated with fruit and vegetable intake. Random effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks. The summary relative risk for the highest vs the lowest intake was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.99) for fruit and vegetables combined, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83-0.98) for fruit, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86-0.96) for vegetables (P for heterogeneity=.24, .05, and .54, respectively). The inverse associations appeared to be restricted to colon cancer. In linear dose-response analysis, only intake of vegetables was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk (summary relative risk=0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), per 100 g/d. However, significant inverse associations emerged in nonlinear models for fruits (Pnonlinearity<.001) and vegetables (Pnonlinearity=.001). The greatest risk reduction was observed when intake increased from very low levels of intake. There was generally little evidence of heterogeneity in the analyses and there was no evidence of small-study bias. Based on meta-analysis of prospective studies, there is a weak but statistically significant nonlinear inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Neophytou, Andreas M; Picciotto, Sally; Brown, Daniel M; Gallagher, Lisa E; Checkoway, Harvey; Eisen, Ellen A; Costello, Sadie
2018-04-03
Exposure to silica has been linked to excess risk of lung cancer and non-malignant respiratory disease mortality. In this study we estimated risk for both these outcomes in relation to occupational silica exposure as well as the reduction in risk that would result from hypothetical interventions on exposure in a cohort of exposed workers. Analyses were carried out in an all-male study population consisting of 2342 California diatomaceous earth workers regularly exposed to crystalline silica, followed between 1942 and 2011. We estimated subdistribution risk for each event under the natural course and interventions of interest using the parametric g-formula to adjust for healthy worker survivor bias. The risk ratio for lung cancer mortality comparing an intervention in which a theoretical maximum exposure limit was set at 0.05 mg/m3 (the current U.S. regulatory limit) to the observed exposure concentrations was 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 1.22). The corresponding risk ratio for non-malignant respiratory disease mortality was 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.52, 0.93). Our findings suggest that risks from both outcomes would have been considerably lower if historical silica exposures in this cohort had not exceeded current regulatory limits.
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Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.
2015-01-01
Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.
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Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.
2014-01-01
After the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina in the year 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a risk-based approach the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation.
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Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis.
Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray
2014-01-01
The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs.
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Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis
Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D.; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray
2014-01-01
Background The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. Objectives This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Data Sources Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. Results The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. Limitations We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. Conclusions A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs. PMID:26330894
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In-situ Production of High Density Polyethylene and Other Useful Materials on Mars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Flynn, Michael
2005-01-01
This paper describes a revolutionary materials structure and power storage concept based on the in-situ production of abiotic carbon 4 compounds. One of the largest single mass penalties required to support the human exploration of Mars is the surface habitat. This proposal will use physical chemical technologies to produce high density polyethylene (HDPE) inflatable structures and construction materials from Mars atmospheric CO2. The formation of polyethylene from Mars CO2 is based on the use of the Sabatier and modified Fischer Tropsch reactions. The proposed system will fully integrate with existing in-situ propellant production concepts. The technology will also be capable of supplementing human caloric requirements, providing solid and liquid fuels for energy storage, and providing significant reduction in mission risk. The NASA Mars Reference Mission Definition Team estimated that a conventional Mars surface habitat structure would weigh 10 tonnes. It is estimated that this technology could reduce this mass by 80%. This reduction in mass will significantly contribute to the reduction in total mission cost need to make a Mars mission a reality. In addition the potential reduction of risk provided by the ability to produce C4 and potentially higher carbon based materials in-situ on Mars is significant. Food, fuel, and shelter are only three of many requirements that would be impacted by this research.
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Bhanegaonkar, Abhijeet; Horodniceanu, Erica G; Ji, Xiang; Detzel, Patrick; Boguniewicz, Mark; Chamlin, Sarah; Lake, Alan; Czerkies, Laura A; Botteman, Marc F; Saavedra, José M
2015-05-01
To estimate the health and economic impact of feeding partially hydrolyzed formula-whey (PHF-W) instead of standard cow's milk formula (CMF) for the first 4 months of life among US infants at high risk for developing atopic dermatitis (AD). A Markov model was developed integrating published data, a survey of US pediatricians, costing sources and market data, and expert opinion. Key modeled outcomes included reduction in AD risk, time spent post AD diagnosis, days without AD flare, and AD-related costs. Costs and clinical consequences were discounted at 3% annually. An estimated absolute 14-percentage point reduction in AD risk was calculated with the use of PHF-W compared with CMF (95% CI for difference, 3%-22%). Relative to CMF, PHF-W decreased the time spent post-AD diagnosis by 8.3 months (95% CI, 2.78-13.31) per child and increased days without AD flare by 39 days (95% CI, 13-63) per child. The AD-related, 6-year total cost estimate was $495 less (95% CI, -$813 to -$157) per child with PHF-W ($724 per child; 95% CI, $385-$1269) compared with CMF ($1219 per child; 95% CI, $741-$1824). Utilization of PHF-W in place of CMF as the initial infant formula administered to high-risk US infants not exclusively breastfed during the first 4 months of life may reduce the incidence and economic burden of AD. Broad implementation of this strategy could result in a minimum savings of $355 million per year to society. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Almeida, Dejanira; Cristovam, Elisabete; Caldeira, Daniel; Ferreira, Joaquim J; Marques, Teresa
2016-11-01
Legionnaires' disease (LD) is recognized as an important hospital-acquired disease. Despite the several methods available, the optimal method to control hospital-acquired LD is not well established and their overall efficacy requires further evaluation. To systematically review all controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk of developing the disease and its effects on environmental colonization. A database search was performed through PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (inception-November 2014). Eligible studies included all controlled studies evaluating interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk or evaluating the effect on environmental colonization. Both individual and pooled risk estimates were reported using risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). There were no studies evaluating the risk reduction in hospital-acquired LD, but 4 studies evaluated the influence of copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light in the reduction of environmental reservoirs of Legionella. The meta-analysis showed a significant 95% risk reduction of Legionella positivity in environmental samples using copper-silver ionization (RR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01-0.17) and 97% risk reduction with ultraviolet light (RR, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.002-0.41). The best available evidence suggests that copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light are effective in reducing Legionella positivity in environmental samples. Nevertheless, the low quality of evidence weakens the robustness of conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.
2004-01-01
Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.
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Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction
2010-06-01
one dredge would direct pump to the Wasser Winters disposal site, located along the southern bank of the Cowlitz River mouth. The average annual...dredge would pipeline pump either upstream to disposal site 20cde or downstream to the Wasser Winters site. Pumping distances would not exceed 6.0...estimates referenced the Wasser Winters upland preparation estimates and were based on the relationship between acreage and effort. Total site
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Guha, Mohua; Baschieri, Angela; Bharat, Shalini; Bhatnagar, Tarun; Sane, Suvarna Sanjay; Godbole, Sheela V; S, Saravanamurthy P; Mainkar, Mandar Keshav; Williams, Joseph; Collumbien, Martine
2012-10-01
Empowering sex workers to mobilise and influence the structural context that obstructs risk reduction efforts is now seen an essential component of successful HIV prevention programmes. However, success depends on local programme environments and history. The authors analysed data from the Integrated Behavioural and Biological Assessment Round I cross-sectional survey among female sex workers in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. The authors used propensity score matching to estimate the impact of participation in intervention activities on reduction of risk (consistent condom use) and vulnerability (perceived collective efficacy and community support). Background levels of risk and vulnerability as well as intervention impact varied widely across the different settings. The effect size ATT of attending meetings/trainings on consistent condom use was as high as 21% in Tamil Nadu (outside of Chennai) where overall use was lowest at 51%. Overall, levels of perceived collective efficacy were low at the time of the survey; perceived community support was high in Tamil Nadu and especially in Chennai (93%) contrasting with 33% in Mumbai. Consistent with previous research, the context of Mumbai seems least conducive to vulnerability reduction, yet self-help groups had a significant impact on consistent condom use (ATT=10%) and were significantly associated with higher collective efficacy (ATT=31%). Significant risk reduction can be achieved by large-scale female sex worker interventions, but the impact depends on the history of programming, the complexity of the context in which sex work happens and pre-existing levels of support sex workers perceive from their peers.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Coleman, Justin
2015-02-01
Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysismore » of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure. Figure 1: Project activities The study will consider a representative NPP reinforced concrete reactor building and representative plant safety system. This study will leverage existing research and development (R&D) activities at INL. Figure 1 shows the proposed study steps with the steps in blue representing activities already funded at INL and the steps in purple the activities that would be funded under this proposal. The following results will be documented: 1) Comparison of seismic risk for the non-seismically isolated (non-SI) and seismically isolated (SI) NPP, and 2) an estimate of construction cost savings when implementing SI at the site of the generic NPP.« less
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Balzer, Laura; Staples, Patrick; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; DeGruttola, Victor
2017-04-01
Several cluster-randomized trials are underway to investigate the implementation and effectiveness of a universal test-and-treat strategy on the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We consider nesting studies of pre-exposure prophylaxis within these trials. Pre-exposure prophylaxis is a general strategy where high-risk HIV- persons take antiretrovirals daily to reduce their risk of infection from exposure to HIV. We address how to target pre-exposure prophylaxis to high-risk groups and how to maximize power to detect the individual and combined effects of universal test-and-treat and pre-exposure prophylaxis strategies. We simulated 1000 trials, each consisting of 32 villages with 200 individuals per village. At baseline, we randomized the universal test-and-treat strategy. Then, after 3 years of follow-up, we considered four strategies for targeting pre-exposure prophylaxis: (1) all HIV- individuals who self-identify as high risk, (2) all HIV- individuals who are identified by their HIV+ partner (serodiscordant couples), (3) highly connected HIV- individuals, and (4) the HIV- contacts of a newly diagnosed HIV+ individual (a ring-based strategy). We explored two possible trial designs, and all villages were followed for a total of 7 years. For each village in a trial, we used a stochastic block model to generate bipartite (male-female) networks and simulated an agent-based epidemic process on these networks. We estimated the individual and combined intervention effects with a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator, which used cross-validation to data-adaptively select from a pre-specified library the candidate estimator that maximized the efficiency of the analysis. The universal test-and-treat strategy reduced the 3-year cumulative HIV incidence by 4.0% on average. The impact of each pre-exposure prophylaxis strategy on the 4-year cumulative HIV incidence varied by the coverage of the universal test-and-treat strategy with lower coverage resulting in a larger impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis. Offering pre-exposure prophylaxis to serodiscordant couples resulted in the largest reductions in HIV incidence (2% reduction), and the ring-based strategy had little impact (0% reduction). The joint effect was larger than either individual effect with reductions in the 7-year incidence ranging from 4.5% to 8.8%. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation, data-adaptively adjusting for baseline covariates, substantially improved power over the unadjusted analysis, while maintaining nominal confidence interval coverage. Our simulation study suggests that nesting a pre-exposure prophylaxis study within an ongoing trial can lead to combined intervention effects greater than those of universal test-and-treat alone and can provide information about the efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis in the presence of high coverage of treatment for HIV+ persons.
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Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B
2003-05-25
A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hussin, Haydar; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola
2013-04-01
Local and regional authorities in mountainous areas that deal with hydro-meteorological hazards like landslides and floods try to set aside budgets for emergencies and risk mitigation. However, future losses are often not calculated in a probabilistic manner when allocating budgets or determining how much risk is acceptable. The absence of probabilistic risk estimates can create a lack of preparedness for reconstruction and risk reduction costs and a deficiency in promoting risk mitigation and prevention in an effective way. The probabilistic risk of natural hazards at local scale is usually ignored all together due to the difficulty in acknowledging, processing and incorporating uncertainties in the estimation of losses (e.g. physical damage, fatalities and monetary loss). This study attempts to set up a working framework for a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of landslides and floods at a municipal scale using the Fella river valley (Eastern Italian Alps) as a multi-hazard case study area. The emphasis is on the evaluation and determination of the uncertainty in the estimation of losses from multi-hazards. To carry out this framework some steps are needed: (1) by using physically based stochastic landslide and flood models we aim to calculate the probability of the physical impact on individual elements at risk, (2) this is then combined with a statistical analysis of the vulnerability and monetary value of the elements at risk in order to include their uncertainty in the risk assessment, (3) finally the uncertainty from each risk component is propagated into the loss estimation. The combined effect of landslides and floods on the direct risk to communities in narrow alpine valleys is also one of important aspects that needs to be studied.
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Potential public health impact of Age-Related Eye Disease Study results: AREDS report no. 11.
Bressler, Neil M; Bressler, Susan B; Congdon, Nathan G; Ferris, Frederick L; Friedman, David S; Klein, Ronald; Lindblad, Anne S; Milton, Roy C; Seddon, Johanna M
2003-11-01
To estimate the potential public health impact of the findings of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) on reducing the number of persons developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during the next 5 years in the United States. The AREDS clinical trial provides estimates of AMD progression rates and of reduction in risk of developing advanced AMD when a high-dose nutritional supplement of antioxidants and zinc is used. These results are applied to estimates of the US population at risk, to estimate the number of people who would potentially avoid advanced AMD during 5 years if those at risk were to take a supplement such as that used in AREDS. An estimated 8 million persons at least 55 years old in the United States have monocular or binocular intermediate AMD or monocular advanced AMD. They are considered to be at high risk for advanced AMD and are those for whom the AREDS formulation should be considered. Of these people, 1.3 million would develop advanced AMD if no treatment were given to reduce their risk. If all of these people at risk received supplements such as those used in AREDS, more than 300,000 (95% confidence interval, 158,000-487,000) of them would avoid advanced AMD and any associated vision loss during the next 5 years. If people at high risk for advanced AMD received supplements such as those suggested by AREDS results, the potential impact on public health in the United States would be considerable during the next 5 years.
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Vangen-Lønne, Anne M; Wilsgaard, Tom; Johnsen, Stein Harald; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Njølstad, Inger; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B
2017-03-01
It is proposed that 20% to 40% of the decline in first-ever stroke incidence is attributed to the improvement of risk factor control. We estimated the impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors on the changing incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) between 1995 and 2012, using individual person data from repeated surveys in a general population. The proportion of the IS incidence decline explained by change in each risk factor over time was estimated from 1995 to 2012 by Poisson regression among 26 329 participants who attended the fourth Tromsø survey in 1994 to 1995. Hazard ratios for IS were estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression among 27 936 participants who attended at least 1 of the Tromsø surveys in 1994 to 1995, 2001, or 2007 to 2008. Age- and sex-adjusted means or prevalences of risk factors over time were estimated by generalized estimating equations. There were 1226 first-ever IS during 367 636 person-years of follow-up. Changes in cardiovascular risk factors accounted for 57% of the decrease in IS incidence from 1995 to 2012. The most important contributors were decreasing mean systolic blood pressure and smoking prevalence, accounting for 26% and 17% of the observed decline, respectively. Conversely, increasing diabetes mellitus prevalence contributed negatively to the declining IS incidence. Changes in cardiovascular risk factors explained 57% of the decrease in IS incidence from 1995 to 2012. Reduction in systolic blood pressure and prevalence of smoking were the most important contributors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
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Reductions in Diagnostic Imaging With High Deductible Health Plans.
Zheng, Sarah; Ren, Zhong Justin; Heineke, Janelle; Geissler, Kimberley H
2016-02-01
Diagnostic imaging utilization grew rapidly over the past 2 decades. It remains unclear whether patient cost-sharing is an effective policy lever to reduce imaging utilization and spending. Using 2010 commercial insurance claims data of >21 million individuals, we compared diagnostic imaging utilization and standardized payments between High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) and non-HDHP enrollees. Negative binomial models were used to estimate associations between HDHP enrollment and utilization, and were repeated for standardized payments. A Hurdle model were used to estimate associations between HDHP enrollment and whether an enrollee had diagnostic imaging, and then the magnitude of associations for enrollees with imaging. Models with interaction terms were used to estimate associations between HDHP enrollment and imaging by risk score tercile. All models included controls for patient age, sex, geographic location, and health status. HDHP enrollment was associated with a 7.5% decrease in the number of imaging studies and a 10.2% decrease in standardized imaging payments. HDHP enrollees were 1.8% points less likely to use imaging; once an enrollee had at least 1 imaging study, differences in utilization and associated payments were small. Associations between HDHP and utilization were largest in the lowest (least sick) risk score tercile. Increased patient cost-sharing may contribute to reductions in diagnostic imaging utilization and spending. However, increased cost-sharing may not encourage patients to differentiate between high-value and low-value diagnostic imaging services; better patient awareness and education may be a crucial part of any reductions in diagnostic imaging utilization.
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Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P
2013-01-01
Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.
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Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.
Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K
2017-02-01
Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.
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Serum Iron Levels and the Risk of Parkinson Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study
Gögele, Martin; Lill, Christina M.; Bertram, Lars; Do, Chuong B.; Eriksson, Nicholas; Foroud, Tatiana; Myers, Richard H.; Nalls, Michael; Keller, Margaux F.; Benyamin, Beben; Whitfield, John B.; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Hicks, Andrew A.; Thompson, John R.; Minelli, Cosetta
2013-01-01
Background Although levels of iron are known to be increased in the brains of patients with Parkinson disease (PD), epidemiological evidence on a possible effect of iron blood levels on PD risk is inconclusive, with effects reported in opposite directions. Epidemiological studies suffer from problems of confounding and reverse causation, and mendelian randomization (MR) represents an alternative approach to provide unconfounded estimates of the effects of biomarkers on disease. We performed a MR study where genes known to modify iron levels were used as instruments to estimate the effect of iron on PD risk, based on estimates of the genetic effects on both iron and PD obtained from the largest sample meta-analyzed to date. Methods and Findings We used as instrumental variables three genetic variants influencing iron levels, HFE rs1800562, HFE rs1799945, and TMPRSS6 rs855791. Estimates of their effect on serum iron were based on a recent genome-wide meta-analysis of 21,567 individuals, while estimates of their effect on PD risk were obtained through meta-analysis of genome-wide and candidate gene studies with 20,809 PD cases and 88,892 controls. Separate MR estimates of the effect of iron on PD were obtained for each variant and pooled by meta-analysis. We investigated heterogeneity across the three estimates as an indication of possible pleiotropy and found no evidence of it. The combined MR estimate showed a statistically significant protective effect of iron, with a relative risk reduction for PD of 3% (95% CI 1%–6%; p = 0.001) per 10 µg/dl increase in serum iron. Conclusions Our study suggests that increased iron levels are causally associated with a decreased risk of developing PD. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiological mechanism of action of serum iron on PD risk before recommendations can be made. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23750121
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Grant, William B; Garland, Cedric F; Gorham, Edward D
2007-01-01
Solar ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance and/or vitamin D have been found inversely correlated with incidence, mortality, and/or survival rates for breast, colorectal, ovarian, and prostate cancer and Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Evidence is emerging that more than 17 different types of cancer are likely to be vitamin D-sensitive. A recent meta-analysis concluded that 1,000 IU of oral vitamin D per day is associated with a 50% reduction in colorectal cancer incidence. Using this value, as well as the findings in a multifactorial ecologic study of cancer mortality rates in the US, estimates for reductions in risk of vitamin D-sensitive cancer mortality rates were made for 1,000 IU/day. These estimates, along with annual average serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, were used to estimate the reduction in cancer mortality rates in several Western European and North American countries that would result from intake of 1,000 IU/day of vitamin D. It was estimated that reductions could be 7% for males and 9% for females in the US and 14% for males and 20% for females in Western European countries below 59 degrees. It is proposed that increased fortification of food and increased availability of supplements could help increase vitamin D intake and could augment small increases in production of vitamin D from solar UVB irradiance. Providing 1,000 IU of vitamin D per day for all adult Americans would cost about $1 billion; the expected benefits for cancer would be in the range of $16-25 billion in addition to other health benefits of vitamin D.
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Metabolic Syndrome and Ischemic Stroke Risk Northern Manhattan Study
Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Sacco, Ralph L.; Lee, Hye-Sueng; Grahame-Clarke, Cairistine; Rundek, Tanja; Elkind, Mitchell V.; Wright, Clinton; Giardina, Elsa-Grace V.; DiTullio, Marco R.; Homma, Shunichi; Paik, Myunghee C.
2009-01-01
Background and Purpose More than 47 million individuals in the United States meet the criteria for the metabolic syndrome. The relation between the metabolic syndrome and stroke risk in multiethnic populations has not been well characterized. Methods As part of the Northern Manhattan Study, 3298 stroke-free community residents were prospectively followed up for a mean of 6.4 years. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to guidelines established by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for ischemic stroke and vascular events (ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death). The etiologic fraction estimates the proportion of events attributable to the metabolic syndrome. Results More than 44% of the cohort had the metabolic syndrome (48% of women vs 38% of men, P<0.0001), which was more prevalent among Hispanics (50%) than whites (39%) or blacks (37%). The metabolic syndrome was associated with increased risk of stroke (HR=1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2) and vascular events (HR=1.6; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0) after adjustment for sociodemographic and risk factors. The effect of the metabolic syndrome on stroke risk was greater among women (HR=2.0; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.1) than men (HR=1.1; 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.9) and among Hispanics (HR=2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.4) compared with blacks and whites. The etiologic fraction estimates suggest that elimination of the metabolic syndrome would result in a 19% reduction in overall stroke, a 30% reduction of stroke in women; and a 35% reduction of stroke among Hispanics. Conclusions The metabolic syndrome is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke, with differential effects by sex and race/ethnicity. PMID:18063821
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Uncertainty importance analysis using parametric moment ratio functions.
Wei, Pengfei; Lu, Zhenzhou; Song, Jingwen
2014-02-01
This article presents a new importance analysis framework, called parametric moment ratio function, for measuring the reduction of model output uncertainty when the distribution parameters of inputs are changed, and the emphasis is put on the mean and variance ratio functions with respect to the variances of model inputs. The proposed concepts efficiently guide the analyst to achieve a targeted reduction on the model output mean and variance by operating on the variances of model inputs. The unbiased and progressive unbiased Monte Carlo estimators are also derived for the parametric mean and variance ratio functions, respectively. Only a set of samples is needed for implementing the proposed importance analysis by the proposed estimators, thus the computational cost is free of input dimensionality. An analytical test example with highly nonlinear behavior is introduced for illustrating the engineering significance of the proposed importance analysis technique and verifying the efficiency and convergence of the derived Monte Carlo estimators. Finally, the moment ratio function is applied to a planar 10-bar structure for achieving a targeted 50% reduction of the model output variance. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Lake, Robin J; Horn, Beverley J; Dunn, Alex H; Parris, Ruth; Green, F Terri; McNickle, Don C
2013-07-01
An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of interventions to control Campylobacter in the New Zealand poultry supply examined a series of interventions. Effectiveness was evaluated in terms of reduced health burden measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Costs of implementation were estimated from the value of cost elements, determined by discussions with industry. Benefits were estimated by changing the inputs to a poultry food chain quantitative risk model. Proportional reductions in the number of predicted Campylobacter infections were converted into reductions in the burden of disease measured in DALYs. Cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for each intervention, as cost per DALY reduction and the ratios compared. The results suggest that the most cost-effective interventions (lowest ratios) are at the primary processing stage. Potential phage-based controls in broiler houses were also highly cost-effective. This study is limited by the ability to quantify costs of implementation and assumptions required to estimate health benefits, but it supports the implementation of interventions at the primary processing stage as providing the greatest quantum of benefit and lowest cost-effectiveness ratios.
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Impact of Apolipoprotein(a) Isoform Size on Lipoprotein(a) Lowering in the HPS2-THRIVE Study
Hopewell, Jemma C.; Hill, Michael R.; Marcovina, Santica; Valdes-Marquez, Elsa; Haynes, Richard; Offer, Alison; Pedersen, Terje R.; Baigent, Colin; Collins, Rory; Landray, Martin; Armitage, Jane
2018-01-01
Background: Genetic studies have shown lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) to be an important causal risk factor for coronary disease. Apolipoprotein(a) isoform size is the chief determinant of Lp(a) levels, but its impact on the benefits of therapies that lower Lp(a) remains unclear. Methods: HPS2-THRIVE (Heart Protection Study 2–Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events) is a randomized trial of niacin–laropiprant versus placebo on a background of simvastatin therapy. Plasma Lp(a) levels at baseline and 1 year post-randomization were measured in 3978 participants from the United Kingdom and China. Apolipoprotein(a) isoform size, estimated by the number of kringle IV domains, was measured by agarose gel electrophoresis and the predominantly expressed isoform identified. Results: Allocation to niacin–laropiprant reduced mean Lp(a) by 12 (SE, 1) nmol/L overall and 34 (6) nmol/L in the top quintile by baseline Lp(a) level (Lp[a] ≥128 nmol/L). The mean proportional reduction in Lp(a) with niacin–laropiprant was 31% but varied strongly with predominant apolipoprotein(a) isoform size (PTrend=4×10−29) and was only 18% in the quintile with the highest baseline Lp(a) level and low isoform size. Estimates from genetic studies suggest that these Lp(a) reductions during the short term of the trial might yield proportional reductions in coronary risk of ≈2% overall and 6% in the top quintile by Lp(a) levels. Conclusions: Proportional reductions in Lp(a) were dependent on apolipoprotein(a) isoform size. Taking this into account, the likely benefits of niacin–laropiprant on coronary risk through Lp(a) lowering are small. Novel therapies that reduce high Lp(a) levels by at least 80 nmol/L (≈40%) may be needed to produce worthwhile benefits in people at the highest risk because of Lp(a). Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00461630. PMID:29449329
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Moayyedi, Paul; Soo, Shelly; Deeks, Jonathan; Forman, David; Mason, James; Innes, Michael; Delaney, Brendan
2000-01-01
Objectives To evaluate efficacy and cost effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication treatment in patients with non-ulcer dyspepsia infected with H pylori. Design Systematic review of randomised controlled trials comparing H pylori eradication with placebo or another drug treatment. Results were incorporated into a Markov model comparing health service costs and benefits of H pylori eradication with antacid treatment over one year. Data sources Six electronic databases were searched for randomised controlled trials from January 1966 to May 2000. Experts in the field, pharmaceutical companies, and journals were contacted for information on any unpublished trials. Trial reports were reviewed according to predefined eligibility and quality criteria. Main outcome measures Relative risk reduction for remaining dyspeptic symptoms (the same or worse) at 3-12 months. Cost per dyspepsia-free month estimated from Markov model based on estimated relative risk reduction. Results Twelve trials were included in the systematic review, nine of which evaluated dyspepsia at 3-12 months in 2541 patients. H pylori eradication treatment was significantly superior to placebo in treating non-ulcer dyspepsia (relative risk reduction 9% (95% confidence interval 4% to 14%)), one case of dyspepsia being cured for every 15 people treated. H pylori eradication cost £56 per dyspepsia-free month during first year after treatment. Conclusion H pylori eradication may be cost effective treatment for non-ulcer dyspepsia in infected patients but further evidence is needed on decision makers' willingness to pay for relief of dyspepsia. PMID:10987767
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Christensen, John L; Miller, Lynn Carol; Appleby, Paul Robert; Corsbie-Massay, Charisse; Godoy, Carlos Gustavo; Marsella, Stacy C; Read, Stephen J
2013-11-13
Men who have sex with men (MSM) often face socially sanctioned disapproval of sexual deviance from the heterosexual "normal." Such sexual stigma can be internalized producing a painful affective state (i.e., shame). Although shame (e.g., addiction) can predict risk-taking (e.g., alcohol abuse), sexual shame's link to sexual risk-taking is unclear. Socially Optimized Learning in Virtual Environments (SOLVE) was designed to reduce MSM's sexual shame, but whether it does so, and if that reduction predicts HIV risk reduction, is unclear. To test if at baseline, MSM's reported past unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) is related to shame; MSM's exposure to SOLVE compared to a wait-list control (WLC) condition reduces MSM's shame; and shame-reduction mediates the link between WLC condition and UAI risk reduction. HIV-negative, self-identified African American, Latino or White MSM, aged 18-24 years, who had had UAI with a non-primary/casual partner in the past three months were recruited for a national online study. Eligible MSM were computer randomized to either WLC or a web-delivered SOLVE. Retained MSM completed baseline measures (e.g., UAI in the past three months; current level of shame) and, in the SOLVE group, viewed at least one level of the game. At the end of the first session, shame was measured again. MSM completed follow-up UAI measures three months later. All data from 921 retained MSM (WLC condition, 484; SOLVE condition, 437) were analyzed, with missing data multiply imputed. At baseline, MSM reporting more risky sexual behaviour reported more shame (r s=0.21; p<0.001). MSM in the SOLVE intervention reported more shame reduction (M=-0.08) than MSM in the control condition (M=0.07; t(919)=4.24; p<0.001). As predicted, the indirect effect was significant (point estimate -0.10, 95% bias-corrected CI [-0.01 to -0.23] such that participants in the SOLVE treatment condition reported greater reductions in shame, which in turn predicted reductions in risky sexual behaviour at follow-up. The direct effect, however, was not significant. SOLVE is the first intervention to: (1) significantly reduce shame for MSM; and (2) demonstrate that shame-reduction, due to an intervention, is predictive of risk (UAI) reduction over time.
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Yeboah, Joseph; Sillau, Stefan; Delaney, Joseph C; Blaha, Michael J.; Michos, Erin D; Young, Rebekah; Qureshi, Waqas T; McClelland, Robyn; Burke, Gregory L; Psaty, Bruce M; Herrington, David M
2015-01-01
Background The impact of replacing the NCEP/ ATPIII cholesterol guidelines with the new 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is unclear. Methods We used risk factor and 10-year clinical event rate data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), combined with estimates of efficacy of moderate and high intensity statin therapy from meta-analyses of statin primary prevention trials to estimate 1.) the change in number of subjects eligible for drug therapy, and 2.) the anticipated reduction in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and increment in Type II diabetes (T2DM) associated with the change in cholesterol guidelines. Results Of the 6814 MESA participants, 5437 were not on statins at baseline and had complete data for analysis (mean age 61.4 ±10.3). Using the NCEP/ATP III guidelines 1334 (24.5%) would have been eligible for statin therapy compared with 3015 (55.5%) under the new ACC/AHA guidelines. Among the subset of newly eligible, 127/1742 (7.3%) had an ASCVD event during 10 years of follow-up. Assuming 10 years of moderate intensity statin therapy, the estimated absolute reduction in ASCVD events for the newly eligible group was 2.06% (NNT: 48.6) and the estimated absolute increase in T2DM was 0.90% (NNH: 110.7). Assuming 10 years of high intensity statin therapy, the corresponding estimates for reductions in ASCVD and increases in T2DM were: ASCVD; 2.70% (NNT: 37.5) and T2DM: 2.60% (NNH: 38.6). The estimated effects of moderate intensity statins on 10 year risk for ASCVD and T2DM in participants eligible for statins under the NCEP/ATP III were: 3.20% (NNT: 31.5) and 1.06% (NNH: 94.2) respectively. Conclusion Substituting the NCEP/ATP III cholesterol guidelines with the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines in MESA more than doubled the number of participants eligible for statin therapy. If the new ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines are adopted and extend the primary prevention population eligible for treatment, the risk-benefit profile is much better for moderate intensity than high intensity statin treatment. PMID:25728729
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Tobias, Martin; Taylor, Richard; Yeh, Li-Chia; Huang, Ken; Mann, Stewart; Sharpe, Norman
2008-04-01
To estimate the contribution of trends in three risk factors--systolic blood pressure (SBP), total blood cholesterol (TBC) and cigarette smoking--to the decline in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in New Zealand from 1980-2004. Risk factor prevalence data by 10-year age group (35-64 years) and sex was sourced from six national or Auckland regional health surveys and three population censuses (the latter only for smoking). The data were smoothed using two-point moving averages, then further smoothed by fitting quadratic regression equations (SBP and TBC) or splines (smoking). Risk factor/CHD mortality hazard ratios estimated by expert working groups for the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study 2001 were used to translate average annual changes in risk factor prevalences to the corresponding percentage changes in premature CHD mortality. The expected trends in CHD mortality were then compared with the observed trend to estimate the contribution of each risk factor to the decline. Approximately 80% (73% for males, 87% for females) of the decline in premature CHD mortality from 1980 to 2004 is estimated to have resulted from the joint trends in population SBP and TBC distributions and smoking prevalence. Overall, approximately 42%, 36% and 22% of the joint risk factor effect was contributed by trends in SBP, TBC and smoking respectively. Our estimate for the joint risk factor contribution to the CHD mortality decline of 80% exceeds those of two earlier New Zealand studies, but agrees closely with a similar Australian study. This provides an indicator of the scope that still remains for further reduction in CHD mortality through primary and secondary prevention.
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Measuring the Benefits of Clean Air and Water.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kneese, Allen V.
This book examines the current state of the art regarding benefits assessment, including such tools as bidding games, surveys, property-value studies, wage differentials, risk reduction evaluation, and mortality and morbidity cost estimation. It is based on research, sponsored by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, related to the…
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Assessing U.S. sodium intake through dietary data and urine biomarkers
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Sodium intake is directly related to blood pressure, a primary risk factor for heart disease and stroke. Reducing intake is estimated to save billions in U.S. health care dollars annually. Current public health recommendations and efforts targeting sodium reductions make accurate monitoring of pop...
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The use of existing value of statistical life (VSL) estimates in benefit-cost analysis relates to relatively short changes in life expectancy. The authors' strategy for addressing this question is to briefly survey the existing economics literature.
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Jones, Peter; Ovenden, Nick; Dauger, Stéphane; Peters, Mark J
2014-01-01
Reductions in heart rate occur frequently in children during critical care intubation and are currently considered the gold standard for haemodynamic instability. Our objective was to estimate loss of heart beats during intubation and compare this to reduction in heart rate alone whilst testing the impact of atropine pre-medication. Data were extracted from a prospective 2-year cohort study of intubation ECGs from critically ill children in PICU/Paediatric Transport. A three step algorithm was established to exclude variation in pre-intubation heart rate (using a 95%CI limit derived from pre-intubation heart rate variation of the children included), measure the heart rate over time and finally the estimate the numbers of lost beats. 333 intubations in children were eligible for inclusion of which 245 were available for analysis (74%). Intubations where the fall in heart rate was less than 50 bpm were accompanied almost exclusively by less than 25 lost beats (n = 175, median 0 [0-1]). When there was a reduction of >50 bpm there was a poor correlation with numbers of lost beats (n = 70, median 42 [15-83]). During intubation the median number of lost beats was 8 [1]-[32] when atropine was not used compared to 0 [0-0] when atropine was used (p<0.001). A reduction in heart rate during intubation of <50 bpm reliably predicted a minimal loss of beats. When the reduction in heart rate was >50 bpm the heart rate was poorly predictive of lost beats. A study looking at the relationship between lost beats and cardiac output needs to be performed. Atropine reduces both fall in heart rate and loss of beats. Similar area-under-the-curve methodology may be useful for estimating risk when biological parameters deviate outside normal range.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Wang, Minli; Kim, Myung-Hee
2011-01-01
The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).
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HIV and sexual behavior change: why not Africa?
Oster, Emily
2012-01-01
Despite high rates of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the corresponding high mortality risk associated with risky sexual behavior, behavioral response has been limited. This paper explores three explanations for this: bias in OLS estimates, limited non-HIV life expectancy and limited knowledge. I find support for the first two. First, using a new instrumental variable strategy I find that OLS estimates of the relationship between risky sex and HIV are biased upwards, and IV estimates indicate reductions in risky behavior in response to the epidemic. Second, I find these reductions are larger for individuals who live in areas with higher life expectancy, suggesting high rates of non-HIV mortality suppress behavioral response; this is consistent with optimizing behavior. Using somewhat limited knowledge proxies, I find no evidence that areas with higher knowledge of the epidemic have greater behavior change. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.
1995-01-01
OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035
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Reggeti, Mariana; Romero, Emilse; Eblen-Zajjur, Antonio
2016-06-01
There is a risk for an avian influenza AH5N1 virus pandemia. To estimate the magnitude and impact of an AH5N1 pandemic in areas of Latin-America in order to design interventions and to reduce morbidity-mortality. The InfluSim program was used to simulate a highly pathogenic AH5N1 aviar virus epidemic outbreak with human to human transmission in Valencia, Venezuela. We estimated the day of maximal number of cases, number of moderately and severely ill patients, exposed individuals, deaths and associated costs for 5 different interventions: absence of any intervention; implementation of antiviral treatment; reduction of 20% in population general contacts; closure of 20% of educational institutions; and reduction of 50% in massive public gatherings. Simulation parameters used were: population: 829.856 persons, infection risk 6-47%, contagiousness Index Rh o 2,5; relative contagiousness 90%, overall lethality 64,1% and, costs according to the official basic budget. For an outbreak lasting 200 days direct and indirect deaths by intervention strategies would be: 29,907; 29,900; 9,701; 29,295 and 14,752. Costs would follow a similar trend. Reduction of 20% in general population contacts results in a significant reduction of up to 68% of cases. The outbreak would collapse the health care system. Antiviral treatment would not be efficient during the outbreak. Interpersonal contact reduction proved to be the best sanitary measure to control an AH5N1 theoretical epidemic outbreak.
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Influence of graphic format on comprehension of risk information among American Indians.
Sprague, Debra; LaVallie, Donna L; Wolf, Fredric M; Jacobsen, Clemma; Sayson, Kirsten; Buchwald, Dedra
2011-01-01
Presentation of risk information influences patients' ability to interpret health care options. Little is known about this relationship between risk presentation and interpretation among American Indians. Three hundred American Indian employees on a western American Indian reservation were invited to complete an anonymous written survey. All surveys included a vignette presenting baseline risk information about a hypothetical cancer and possible benefits of 2 prevention plans. Risk interpretation was assessed by correct answers to 3 questions evaluating the risk reduction associated with the plans. Numeric information was the same in all surveys, but framing varied; half expressed prevention benefits in terms of relative risk reduction and half in terms of absolute risk reduction. All surveys used text to describe the benefits of the 2 plans, but half included a graphic image. Surveys were distributed randomly. Responses were analyzed using binary logistic regression with the robust variance estimator to account for clustering of outcomes within participant. Use of a graphic image was associated with higher odds of correctly answering 3 risk interpretation questions (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval = 1.5-4.0, P < 0.001) compared to the text-only format. These findings were similar to those of previous studies carried out in the general population. Neither framing information as relative compared to absolute risk nor the interaction between graphic image and relative risk presentation was associated with risk interpretation. One type of graphic image was associated with increased understanding of risk in a small sample of American Indian adults. The authors recommend further investigation of the effectiveness of other types of graphic displays for conveying health risk information to this population.
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Satagopan, Jaya M; Sen, Ananda; Zhou, Qin; Lan, Qing; Rothman, Nathaniel; Langseth, Hilde; Engel, Lawrence S
2016-06-01
Matched case-control studies are popular designs used in epidemiology for assessing the effects of exposures on binary traits. Modern studies increasingly enjoy the ability to examine a large number of exposures in a comprehensive manner. However, several risk factors often tend to be related in a nontrivial way, undermining efforts to identify the risk factors using standard analytic methods due to inflated type-I errors and possible masking of effects. Epidemiologists often use data reduction techniques by grouping the prognostic factors using a thematic approach, with themes deriving from biological considerations. We propose shrinkage-type estimators based on Bayesian penalization methods to estimate the effects of the risk factors using these themes. The properties of the estimators are examined using extensive simulations. The methodology is illustrated using data from a matched case-control study of polychlorinated biphenyls in relation to the etiology of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.
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Marriage, Work, and Racial Inequalities in Poverty: Evidence from the U.S.
Thiede, Brian; Kim, Hyojung; Slack, Tim
2017-10-01
This paper explores recent racial and ethnic inequalities in poverty, estimating the share of racial poverty differentials that can be explained by variation in family structure and workforce participation. The authors use logistic regression to estimate the association between poverty and race, family structure, and workforce participation. They then decompose between-race differences in poverty risk to quantify how racial disparities in marriage and work explain observed inequalities in the log odds of poverty. They estimate that 47.7-48.9% of black-white differences in poverty risk can be explained by between-group variance in these two factors, while only 4.3-4.5% of the Hispanic-white differential in poverty risk can be explained by these variables. These findings underscore the continued association between racial disparities in poverty and those in labor and marriage markets. However, clear racial differences in the origin of poverty suggest that family- and worked-related policy interventions will not have uniformly effective or evenly distributed impacts on poverty reduction.
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Rutter, Joni L; Wacholder, Sholom; Chetrit, Angela; Lubin, Flora; Menczer, Joseph; Ebbers, Sarah; Tucker, Margaret A; Struewing, Jeffery P; Hartge, Patricia
2003-07-16
In the general population, the risk of developing ovarian cancer is reduced in women who have undergone tubal ligation, hysterectomy, or oophorectomy, although peritoneal cancer can arise after bilateral oophorectomy. In studies from genetic screening clinics, women with mutations in the breast and ovarian susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 have been found to have a low risk of peritoneal carcinoma in the first years after bilateral oophorectomy. We assessed the level and persistence of reduction of ovarian (including peritoneal) cancer risk after gynecologic surgeries for women who carry BRCA1/2 mutations but were not selected from high-risk clinics. We identified 1124 Israeli women with incident ovarian cancer or primary peritoneal cancer and tested 847 of them for the three Ashkenazi founder mutations. We compared gynecologic surgery history among all case patients, BRCA1 (n = 187) and BRCA2 (n = 64) carrier case patients, and the non-carrier case patients (n = 598) with that in control subjects drawn from a population registry (n = 2396). We estimated ovarian cancer risk (odds ratios [ORs] with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) after gynecologic surgery in mutation carriers and non-carriers with logistic regression models. Eight women with primary peritoneal cancer and 128 control subjects reported a previous bilateral oophorectomy (OR = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.06 to 0.24). Other gynecologic surgeries were associated with a 30%-50% reduced risk of ovarian cancer, depending on the type of surgery, with surgery to remove some ovarian tissue associated with the most risk reduction (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.16 to 0.74). Reduced risks were seen in BRCA1/2 carriers and non-carriers. Age at surgery and years since surgery did not affect risk reductions. Both BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers have reduced risk of ovarian or peritoneal cancer after gynecologic surgery. The magnitude of the reduction depends upon the type and extent of surgery.
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Eyles, Helen; Shields, Emma; Webster, Jacqui; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona
2016-08-01
Excess sodium intake is one of the top 2 dietary risk factors contributing to the global burden of disease. As such, many countries are now developing national sodium reduction strategies, a key component of which is a sodium reduction model that includes sodium targets for packaged foods and other sources of dietary sodium. We sought to develop a sodium reduction model to determine the reductions required in the sodium content of packaged foods and other dietary sources of sodium to reduce adult population salt intake by ∼30% toward the optimal WHO target of 5 g/d. Nationally representative household food-purchasing data for New Zealand were linked with branded food composition information to determine the mean contribution of major packaged food categories to total population sodium consumption. Discretionary salt use and the contribution of sodium from fresh foods and foods consumed away from the home were estimated with the use of national nutrition survey data. Reductions required in the sodium content of packaged foods and other dietary sources of sodium to achieve a 30% reduction in dietary sodium intakes were estimated. A 36% reduction (1.6 g salt or 628 mg Na) in the sodium content of packaged foods in conjunction with a 40% reduction in discretionary salt use and the sodium content of foods consumed away from the home would reduce total population salt intake in New Zealand by 35% (from 8.4 to 5.5 g/d) and thus meet the WHO 2025 30% relative reduction target. Key reductions required include a decrease of 21% in the sodium content of white bread, 27% for hard cheese, 42% for sausages, and 54% for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals. Achieving the WHO sodium target in New Zealand will take considerable efforts by both food manufacturers and consumers and will likely require a national government-led sodium reduction strategy. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.
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Colón-Emeric, Cathleen; Pieper, Carl F.; Grubber, Janet; Van Scoyoc, Lynn; Schnell, Merritt L; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold; Pearson, Megan; Lafleur, Joanne; Lyles, Kenneth W.; Adler, Robert A.
2016-01-01
Purpose With ethical requirements to the enrollment of lower risk subjects, osteoporosis trials are underpowered to detect reduction in hip fractures. Different skeletal sites have different levels of fracture risk and response to treatment. We sought to identify fracture sites which cluster with hip fracture at higher than expected frequency; if these sites respond to treatment similarly, then a composite fracture endpoint could provide a better estimate of hip fracture reduction. Methods Cohort study using Veterans Affairs and Medicare administrative data. Male Veterans (n=5,036,536) aged 50-99 years receiving VA primary care between1999-2009 were included. Fractures were ascertained using ICD9 and CPT codes and classified by skeletal site. Pearson correlation coefficients, logistic regression and kappa statistics, were used to describe the correlation between each fracture type and hip fracture within individuals, without regards to the timing of the events. Results 595,579 (11.8%) men suffered 1 or more fractures and 179,597 (3.6%) suffered 2 or more fractures during the time under study. Of those with one or more fractures, rib was the most common site (29%), followed by spine (22%), hip (21%) and femur (20%). The fracture types most highly correlated with hip fracture were pelvic/acetabular (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.25, p<0.0001), femur (0.15, p<0.0001), and shoulder (0.11, p<0.0001). Conclusions Pelvic, acetabular, femur, and shoulder fractures cluster with hip fractures within individuals at greater than expected frequency. If we observe similar treatment risk reductions within that cluster, subsequent trials could consider use of a composite endpoint to better estimate hip fracture risk. PMID:26151123
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The economic impact of project MARS (motivating adolescents to reduce sexual risk).
Dealy, Bern C; Horn, Brady P; Callahan, Tiffany J; Bryan, Angela D
2013-09-01
The purpose of this study was to economically evaluate Project MARS (Motivating Adolescents to Reduce Sexual Risk; T. J. Callahan, E. A. Montanaro, R. E. Magnan, & A. D. Bryan, 2013, "Project MARS: Design of a multi-behavior intervention trial for justice-involved youth," Translational Behavioral Medicine, Vol. 3, pp. 122-130), an ongoing, randomized, sexual-risk-reduction intervention for justice-involved youth. We consider the effect of including viral STIs in the economic analysis, and explore the impact of the MARS intervention on the perceived cost of acquiring STIs to justice-involved youth. 206 participants, ages 14 to 18, participated in a sexual-risk-reduction intervention that included screening and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhea. A Bernoulli probability model was used to estimate averted STIs attributable to the MARS intervention. The economic benefit of averted STIs was monetized using the direct medical cost of treatment. In addition, we used a contingent valuation (willingness-to-pay) model to investigate the impact of the Project MARS on participants' perceived cost of acquiring an STI. Using the standard outcome domains typically used to evaluate STI interventions, Project MARS resulted in a reduction of $2.08 in direct medical costs for every $1 spent. When viral STIs were added to the economic model, a considerable increase in averted direct medical costs ($2.68 for every $1 spent) was found. Preliminary contingent valuation estimates suggest that participants' willingness-to-pay for averted STIs significantly increased after receiving the MARS intervention. From an economic perspective, Project MARS is a worthwhile program to adopt. Future attention should be given to the impact of behavioral interventions on viral infections. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.
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Bol, Emilli Keller; Araujo, Letícia; Veras, Flávio Fonseca; Welke, Juliane Elisa
2016-03-01
The objective of this research was to estimate the processing effect on mycotoxins levels and the exposure to zearalenone (ZEA), ochratoxin (OTA) and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) through the consumption of pasta and bakery products. The higher reduction percentage of mycotoxins was observed in cake production (95, 90 and 70% for ZEA, OTA and AFB1, respectively). Bread and biscuit showed similar reduction in mycotoxins levels (89 and 90% for ZEA; 80 and 85% for OTA; 36 and 40% for AFB1, respectively). The lower reduction in the levels of mycotoxins has been observed for pasta (75, 65 and 10% for ZEA, OTA and AFB1, respectively). The consumption of these products could represent 12.6% of the maximum tolerable daily intake of ZEA and 30.5% of the tolerable weekly intake of OTA. The margin of exposure value related to the exposure to AFB1 was 24.6. The exposure to ZEA and OTA through the consumption of bakery products and pasta would not represent risk for consumer health, (although conjugated forms were not determined). However, the exposure to AFB1 represents a risk (even without considering the AFB1-conjugated forms). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Policy implications of uncertainty in modeled life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels.
Mullins, Kimberley A; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott
2011-01-01
Biofuels have received legislative support recently in California's Low-Carbon Fuel Standard and the Federal Energy Independence and Security Act. Both present new fuel types, but neither provides methodological guidelines for dealing with the inherent uncertainty in evaluating their potential life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions reductions are based on point estimates only. This work demonstrates the use of Monte Carlo simulation to estimate life-cycle emissions distributions from ethanol and butanol from corn or switchgrass. Life-cycle emissions distributions for each feedstock and fuel pairing modeled span an order of magnitude or more. Using a streamlined life-cycle assessment, corn ethanol emissions range from 50 to 250 g CO(2)e/MJ, for example, and each feedstock-fuel pathway studied shows some probability of greater emissions than a distribution for gasoline. Potential GHG emissions reductions from displacing fossil fuels with biofuels are difficult to forecast given this high degree of uncertainty in life-cycle emissions. This uncertainty is driven by the importance and uncertainty of indirect land use change emissions. Incorporating uncertainty in the decision making process can illuminate the risks of policy failure (e.g., increased emissions), and a calculated risk of failure due to uncertainty can be used to inform more appropriate reduction targets in future biofuel policies.
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Combination pharmacotherapy to prevent cardiovascular disease: present status and challenges.
Yusuf, Salim; Attaran, Amir; Bosch, Jackie; Joseph, Philip; Lonn, Eva; McCready, Tara; Mente, Andrew; Nieuwlaat, Robby; Pais, Prem; Rodgers, Anthony; Schwalm, J-D; Smith, Richard; Teo, Koon; Xavier, Denis
2014-02-01
Combination pills containing aspirin, multiple blood pressure (BP) lowering drugs, and a statin have demonstrated safety, substantial risk factor reductions, and improved medication adherence in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The individual medications in combination pills are already recommended for use together in secondary CVD prevention. Therefore, current information on their pharmacokinetics, impact on the risk factors, and tolerability should be sufficient to persuade regulators and clinicians to use fixed-dose combination pills in high-risk individuals, such as in secondary prevention. Long-term use of these medicines, in a polypill or otherwise, is expected to reduce CVD risk by at least 50-60% in such groups. This risk reduction needs confirmation in prospective randomized trials for populations for whom concomitant use of the medications is not currently recommended (e.g. primary prevention). Given their additive benefits, the combined estimated relative risk reduction (RRR) in CVD from both lifestyle modification and a combination pill is expected to be 70-80%. The first of several barriers to the widespread use of combination therapy in CVD prevention is physician reluctance to use combination pills. This reluctance may originate from the belief that lifestyle modification should take precedence, and that medications should be introduced one drug at a time, instead of regarding combination pills and lifestyle modification as complementary and additive. Second, widespread availability of combination pills is also impeded by the reluctance of large pharmaceutical companies to invest in development of novel co-formulations of generic (or 'mature') drugs. A business model based on 'mass approaches' to drug production, packaging, marketing, and distribution could make the combination pill available at an affordable price, while at the same time providing a viable profit for the manufacturers. A third barrier is regulatory approval for novel multidrug combination pills, as there are few precedents for the approval of combination products with four or more components for CVD. Acceptance of combination therapy in other settings suggests that with concerted efforts by academics, international health agencies, research funding bodies, governments, regulators, and pharmaceutical manufacturers, combination pills for prevention of CVD in those with disease or at high risk (e.g. those with multiple risk factors) can be made available worldwide at affordable prices. It is anticipated that widespread use of combination pills with lifestyle modifications can lead to substantial risk reductions (as much as an 80% estimated RRR) in CVD. Heath care systems need to deploy these strategies widely, effectively, and efficiently. If implemented, these strategies could avoid several millions of fatal and non-fatal CVD events every year worldwide.
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Guijarro, Carlos; García-Díaz, Juan de Dios
2013-01-01
The European Guidelines on Dyslipidaemias (2011) and Cardiovascular Prevention (2012) have incorporated important changes. Firstly, it highlights the identification of a group of "very high risk" patients: patients with atherosclerotic disease in any vascular area, diabetes with associated risk factors, advanced chronic renal failure, or a SCORE estimate >10%. Patients with diabetes and no other risk factors, moderate renal failure, severe hypertension, genetic dyslipidaemias, or a SCORE estimate 5-10%, are considered as "high risk". The HDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels are considered as modulators of risks, but not therapeutic objectives per se. The therapeutic objectives are set at LDL cholesterol levels < 70 mg/dl (or at least a reduction of at least 50%) for patients at very high risk, and an LDL < 100 mg/dl for high risk patients. As well as the changes in lifestyle, pharmacological treatment with statins is the focal point of lipid lowering treatments. Other pharmacological options may be considered if the treatment with the maximum tolerable doses of statins do not achieve the therapeutic objectives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEA. All rights reserved.
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Butsic, Van; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bar-Massada, Avi
2017-01-01
The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.
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2009-01-01
Objectives. We sought to address denominator neglect (i.e. the focus on the number of treated and nontreated patients who died, without sufficiently considering the overall numbers of patients) in estimates of treatment risk reduction, and analyzed whether icon arrays aid comprehension. Methods. We performed a survey of probabilistic, national samples in the United States and Germany in July and August of 2008. Participants received scenarios involving equally effective treatments but differing in the overall number of treated and nontreated patients. In some conditions, the number who received a treatment equaled the number who did not; in others the number was smaller or larger. Some participants received icon arrays. Results. Participants—particularly those with low numeracy skills—showed denominator neglect in treatment risk reduction perceptions. Icon arrays were an effective method for eliminating denominator neglect. We found cross-cultural differences that are important in light of the countries' different medical systems. Conclusions. Problems understanding numerical information often reside not in the mind but in the problem's representation. These findings suggest suitable ways to communicate quantitative medical data. PMID:19833983
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Light, Emily M W; Kline, Allison S; Drosky, Megan A; Chapman, Larry S
2015-08-01
The objective of this study is to measure the return on investment (ROI) of the Price Chopper/Golub Corporation employee population who participate in wellness programs available to them. Medical claims data, risk level, and presence of comorbidities such as diabetes and heart disease were compared in a matched retrospective cohort of participants and nonparticipants, with 2008, 2009, and 2010 serving as measurement years. Program costs and estimated savings were used to calculate an ROI of $4.33 for every dollar invested in wellness programs. Reductions in medical costs were observed at several risk and participation levels, with an average savings of $133 per participant and a 3-year savings estimate of $285,706. The positive ROI and savings estimate indicate that wellness interventions added economic value to Price Chopper/Golub Corporation.
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Hsu, Chiu-Hsieh; Li, Yisheng; Long, Qi; Zhao, Qiuhong; Lance, Peter
2011-01-01
In colorectal polyp prevention trials, estimation of the rate of recurrence of adenomas at the end of the trial may be complicated by dependent censoring, that is, time to follow-up colonoscopy and dropout may be dependent on time to recurrence. Assuming that the auxiliary variables capture the dependence between recurrence and censoring times, we propose to fit two working models with the auxiliary variables as covariates to define risk groups and then extend an existing weighted logistic regression method for independent censoring to each risk group to accommodate potential dependent censoring. In a simulation study, we show that the proposed method results in both a gain in efficiency and reduction in bias for estimating the recurrence rate. We illustrate the methodology by analyzing a recurrent adenoma dataset from a colorectal polyp prevention trial. PMID:22065985
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The effect of giving global coronary risk information to adults: a systematic review.
Sheridan, Stacey L; Viera, Anthony J; Krantz, Mori J; Ice, Christa L; Steinman, Lesley E; Peters, Karen E; Kopin, Laurie A; Lungelow, Danielle
2010-02-08
Global coronary heart disease (CHD) risk estimation (ie, a quantitative estimate of a patient's chances of CHD calculated by combining risk factors in an empirical equation) is recommended as a starting point for primary prevention efforts in all US adults. Whether it improves outcomes is currently unknown. To assess the effect of providing global CHD risk information to adults, we performed a systematic evidence review. We searched MEDLINE for the years 1980 to 2008, Psych Info, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database and included English-language articles that met prespecified inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently reviewed titles, abstracts, and articles for inclusion and assessed study quality. We identified 20 articles, reporting on 18 unique fair or good quality studies (including 14 randomized controlled studies). These showed that global CHD risk information alone or with accompanying education increased the accuracy of perceived risk and probably increased intent to start therapy. Studies with repeated risk information or risk information and repeated doses of counseling showed small significant reductions in predicted CHD risk (absolute differences, -0.2% to -2% over 10 years in studies using risk estimates derived from Framingham equations). Studies providing global risk information at only 1 point in time seemed ineffective. Global CHD risk information seems to improve the accuracy of risk perception and may increase intent to initiate CHD prevention among individuals at moderate to high risk. The effect of global risk presentation on more distal outcomes is less clear and seems to be related to the intensity of accompanying interventions.
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Brodish, Paul Henry; Hakes, Jahn K
2016-12-01
Policy makers would benefit from being able to estimate the likely impact of potential interventions to reverse the effects of rapidly rising income inequality on mortality rates. Using multiple cohorts of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS), we estimate the absolute income effect on premature mortality in the United States. A multivariate Poisson regression using the natural logarithm of equivilized household income establishes the magnitude of the absolute income effect on mortality. We calculate mortality rates for each income decile of the study sample and mortality rate ratios relative to the decile containing mean income. We then apply the estimated income effect to two kinds of hypothetical interventions that would redistribute income. The first lifts everyone with an equivalized household income at or below the U.S. poverty line (in 2000$) out of poverty, to the income category just above the poverty line. The second shifts each family's equivalized income by, in turn, 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% toward the mean household income, equivalent to reducing the Gini coefficient by the same percentage in each scenario. We also assess mortality disparities of the hypothetical interventions using ratios of mortality rates of the ninth and second income deciles, and test sensitivity to the assumption of causality of income on mortality by halving the mortality effect per unit of equivalized household income. The estimated absolute income effect would produce a three to four percent reduction in mortality for a 10% reduction in the Gini coefficient. Larger mortality reductions result from larger reductions in the Gini, but with diminishing returns. Inequalities in estimated mortality rates are reduced by a larger percentage than overall estimated mortality rates under the same hypothetical redistributions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Dealing with dietary measurement error in nutritional cohort studies.
Freedman, Laurence S; Schatzkin, Arthur; Midthune, Douglas; Kipnis, Victor
2011-07-20
Dietary measurement error creates serious challenges to reliably discovering new diet-disease associations in nutritional cohort studies. Such error causes substantial underestimation of relative risks and reduction of statistical power for detecting associations. On the basis of data from the Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition Study, we recommend the following approaches to deal with these problems. Regarding data analysis of cohort studies using food-frequency questionnaires, we recommend 1) using energy adjustment for relative risk estimation; 2) reporting estimates adjusted for measurement error along with the usual relative risk estimates, whenever possible (this requires data from a relevant, preferably internal, validation study in which participants report intakes using both the main instrument and a more detailed reference instrument such as a 24-hour recall or multiple-day food record); 3) performing statistical adjustment of relative risks, based on such validation data, if they exist, using univariate (only for energy-adjusted intakes such as densities or residuals) or multivariate regression calibration. We note that whereas unadjusted relative risk estimates are biased toward the null value, statistical significance tests of unadjusted relative risk estimates are approximately valid. Regarding study design, we recommend increasing the sample size to remedy loss of power; however, it is important to understand that this will often be an incomplete solution because the attenuated signal may be too small to distinguish from unmeasured confounding in the model relating disease to reported intake. Future work should be devoted to alleviating the problem of signal attenuation, possibly through the use of improved self-report instruments or by combining dietary biomarkers with self-report instruments.
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Breast cancer-related lymphedema: Symptoms, diagnosis, risk reduction, and management
Fu, Mei R
2014-01-01
The global burden of breast cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population. More than 1.38 million women worldwide were estimated to be diagnosed with breast cancer in 2008, accounting for 23% of all diagnosed cancers in women. Given that the 5-year survival rate for breast cancer is now 90%, experiencing breast cancer is ultimately about quality of life. Women treated for breast cancer are facing a life-time risk of developing lymphedema, a chronic condition that occurs in up to 40% of this population and negatively affects breast cancer survivors’ quality of life. This review offers an insightful understanding of the condition by providing clinically relevant and evidence based knowledge regarding lymphedema symptoms, diagnosis, risk reduction, and management with the intent to inform health care professionals so that they might be better equipped to care for patients. PMID:25114841
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Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph
2011-10-01
Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.
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Barker, S Fiona; Amoah, Philip; Drechsel, Pay
2014-07-15
With a rapidly growing urban population in Kumasi, Ghana, the consumption of street food is increasing. Raw salads, which often accompany street food dishes, are typically composed of perishable vegetables that are grown in close proximity to the city using poor quality water for irrigation. This study assessed the risk of gastroenteritis illness (caused by rotavirus, norovirus and Ascaris lumbricoides) associated with the consumption of street food salads using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Three different risk assessment models were constructed, based on availability of microbial concentrations: 1) Water - starting from irrigation water quality, 2) Produce - starting from the quality of produce at market, and 3) Street - using microbial quality of street food salad. In the absence of viral concentrations, published ratios between faecal coliforms and viruses were used to estimate the quality of water, produce and salad, and annual disease burdens were determined. Rotavirus dominated the estimates of annual disease burden (~10(-3)Disability Adjusted Life Years per person per year (DALYs pppy)), although norovirus also exceeded the 10(-4)DALY threshold for both Produce and Street models. The Water model ignored other on-farm and post-harvest sources of contamination and consistently produced lower estimates of risk; it likely underestimates disease burden and therefore is not recommended. Required log reductions of up to 5.3 (95th percentile) for rotavirus were estimated for the Street model, demonstrating that significant interventions are required to protect the health and safety of street food consumers in Kumasi. Estimates of virus concentrations were a significant source of model uncertainty and more data on pathogen concentrations is needed to refine QMRA estimates of disease burden. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Cook, Linda S; Leung, Andy C Y; Swenerton, Kenneth; Gallagher, Richard P; Magliocco, Anthony; Steed, Helen; Koebel, Martin; Nation, Jill; Eshragh, Sima; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Le, Nhu D
2016-02-01
Meta-analyses report a null association between recent alcohol consumption and ovarian cancer risk. However, because few studies investigated different types of alcohol over adult ages, we investigated adult lifetime and type (beer, wine, spirits) of consumption and risk. Consumption after age 20years was ascertained in 1144 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 2513 controls in a population-based case-control study (Alberta and British Columbia, Canada, 2001-2012). Non-drinkers consumed any types of alcohol <12 times per year on average. Logistic regression was use to estimate adjusted odds ratios [aOR] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]. Wine consumption was associated with a risk reduction (aOR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.50-0.88) relative to non-drinkers, but not beer (aOR=1.06, 95% CI: 0.71-1.58) or spirits (aOR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.69-1.39). The reduced risk was stronger for exclusive red wine drinkers (aOR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.19-0.92) than white wine drinkers (aOR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.46-1.34), although most women drank both types of wine. Risk decreased with increasing cumulative consumption of any wine (P-trend<0.05) and was evident for the serous histotype. Wine consumption initiated prior to age 50 was associated with a risk reduction (e.g., at 40-49years, aOR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.42-0.78), but not drinking initiated after 50years of age. For any type, level, or age at initiation of alcohol consumption, we found no increased risks. For the moderate consumption in this study, higher levels of wine consumption were generally associated with risk reductions; reductions may be stronger for red wine. Our results suggest that alcohol consumption that is guideline concordant will not increase epithelial ovarian cancer risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Johri, Mira; Ng, Edmond S W; Bermudez-Tamayo, Clara; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Ducruet, Thierry; Chaillet, Nils
2017-05-22
Widespread increases in caesarean section (CS) rates have sparked concerns about risks to mothers and infants and rising healthcare costs. A multicentre, two-arm, cluster-randomized trial in Quebec, Canada assessed whether an audit and feedback intervention targeting health professionals would reduce CS rates for pregnant women compared to usual care, and concluded that it reduced CS rates without adverse effects on maternal or neonatal health. The effect was statistically significant but clinically small. We assessed cost-effectiveness to inform scale-up decisions. A prospective economic evaluation was undertaken using individual patient data from the Quality of Care, Obstetrics Risk Management, and Mode of Delivery (QUARISMA) trial (April 2008 to October 2011). Analyses took a healthcare payer perspective. The time horizon captured hospital-based costs and clinical events for mothers and neonates from labour onset to 3 months postpartum. Resource use was identified and measured from patient charts and valued using standardized government sources. We estimated the changes in CS rates and costs for the intervention group (versus controls) between the baseline and post-intervention periods. We examined heterogeneity between clinical subgroups of high-risk versus low-risk pregnancies and estimated the joint uncertainty in cost-effectiveness over 20,000 trial simulations. We decomposed costs to identify drivers of change. The intervention group experienced per-patient reductions of 0.005 CS (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.015 to 0.004, P = 0.09) and $180 (95% CI: -$277 to - $83, P < 0.001). Women with low-risk pregnancies experienced statistically significant reductions in CS rates and costs; changes for the high-risk subgroup were not significant. The intervention was "dominant" (effective in reducing CS and less costly than usual care) in 86.08% of simulations. It reduced costs in 99.99% of simulations. Cost reductions were driven by lower rates of neonatal complications in the intervention group (-$190, 95% CI: -$255 to - $125, P < 0.001). Given 88,000 annual provincial births, a similar intervention could save $15.8 million (range: $7.3 to $24.4 million) in Quebec annually. From a healthcare payer perspective, a multifaceted intervention involving audits and feedback resulted in a small reduction in caesarean deliveries and important cost savings. Cost reductions are consistent with improved quality of care in intervention group hospitals. International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, ISRCTN95086407 . Registered on 23 October 2007.
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Denton, Brian T.; Hayward, Rodney A.
2017-01-01
Background Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. We sought to develop and validate risk models for predicting absolute risk difference (increased risk or decreased risk) for CVD events and serious adverse events from intensive BP therapy. A secondary aim was to test if the statistical method of elastic net regularization would improve the estimation of risk models for predicting absolute risk difference, as compared to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Methods and findings Cox models were derived from SPRINT trial data and validated on ACCORD-BP trial data to estimate risk of CVD events and serious adverse events; the models included terms for intensive BP treatment and heterogeneous response to intensive treatment. The Cox models were then used to estimate the absolute reduction in probability of CVD events (benefit) and absolute increase in probability of serious adverse events (harm) for each individual from intensive treatment. We compared the method of elastic net regularization, which uses repeated internal cross-validation to select variables and estimate coefficients in the presence of collinearity, to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Data from 9,069 SPRINT participants with complete data on covariates were utilized for model development, and data from 4,498 ACCORD-BP participants with complete data were utilized for model validation. Participants were exposed to intensive (goal systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg) versus standard (<140 mm Hg) treatment. Two composite primary outcome measures were evaluated: (i) CVD events/deaths (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, congestive heart failure, or CVD death), and (ii) serious adverse events (hypotension, syncope, electrolyte abnormalities, bradycardia, or acute kidney injury/failure). The model for CVD chosen through elastic net regularization included interaction terms suggesting that older age, black race, higher diastolic BP, and higher lipids were associated with greater CVD risk reduction benefits from intensive treatment, while current smoking was associated with fewer benefits. The model for serious adverse events chosen through elastic net regularization suggested that male sex, current smoking, statin use, elevated creatinine, and higher lipids were associated with greater risk of serious adverse events from intensive treatment. SPRINT participants in the highest predicted benefit subgroup had a number needed to treat (NNT) of 24 to prevent 1 CVD event/death over 5 years (absolute risk reduction [ARR] = 0.042, 95% CI: 0.018, 0.066; P = 0.001), those in the middle predicted benefit subgroup had a NNT of 76 (ARR = 0.013, 95% CI: −0.0001, 0.026; P = 0.053), and those in the lowest subgroup had no significant risk reduction (ARR = 0.006, 95% CI: −0.007, 0.018; P = 0.71). Those in the highest predicted harm subgroup had a number needed to harm (NNH) of 27 to induce 1 serious adverse event (absolute risk increase [ARI] = 0.038, 95% CI: 0.014, 0.061; P = 0.002), those in the middle predicted harm subgroup had a NNH of 41 (ARI = 0.025, 95% CI: 0.012, 0.038; P < 0.001), and those in the lowest subgroup had no significant risk increase (ARI = −0.007, 95% CI: −0.043, 0.030; P = 0.72). In ACCORD-BP, participants in the highest subgroup of predicted benefit had significant absolute CVD risk reduction, but the overall ACCORD-BP participant sample was skewed towards participants with less predicted benefit and more predicted risk than in SPRINT. The models chosen through traditional backwards selection had similar ability to identify absolute risk difference for CVD as the elastic net models, but poorer ability to correctly identify absolute risk difference for serious adverse events. A key limitation of the analysis is the limited sample size of the ACCORD-BP trial, which expanded confidence intervals for ARI among persons with type 2 diabetes. Additionally, it is not possible to mechanistically explain the physiological relationships explaining the heterogeneous treatment effects captured by the models, since the study was an observational secondary data analysis. Conclusions We found that predictive models could help identify subgroups of participants in both SPRINT and ACCORD-BP who had lower versus higher ARRs in CVD events/deaths with intensive BP treatment, and participants who had lower versus higher ARIs in serious adverse events. PMID:29040268
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Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.
Johansson, Henrik
2002-07-01
Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.
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Association of driver air bags with driver fatality: a matched cohort study
Cummings, Peter; McKnight, Barbara; Rivara, Frederick P; Grossman, David C
2002-01-01
Objective To estimate the association of driver air bag presence with driver fatality in road traffic crashes. Design Matched pair cohort study. Setting All passenger vehicle crashes in the United States during 1990-2000 inclusive. Subjects 51 031 driver-passenger pairs in the same vehicle. Main outcome measures Relative risk of death within 30 days of a crash. Results Drivers with an air bag were less likely to die than drivers without an air bag (adjusted relative risk 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.96)). This estimate was nearly the same whether drivers wore a seat belt (adjusted relative risk 0.93) or not (0.91). Air bags were associated with more protection for women (0.88 (0.82 to 0.93)), than for men (0.94 (0.90 to 0.99)). Drivers wearing a seat belt were less likely to die than unbelted drivers (0.35 (0.33 to 0.36)). Belted drivers with an air bag were less likely to die than unbelted drivers without an air bag (0.32 (0.30 to 0.34)). Conclusions If the associations are causal the average risk of driver death was reduced 8% (95% confidence interval 4% to 12%) by an air bag. Benefit was similar for belted and unbelted drivers and was slightly greater for women. However, seat belts offered much more protection than air bags. What is already known on this topicStudies have estimated that driver air bags reduce the risk of death in a road vehicle crash by 10-14%These studies disagree as to whether benefit is greater for drivers wearing a seat belt or for unbelted driversWhat this study addsHaving an air bag was associated with an 8% reduction in the risk of death, whether the driver was belted or notThe reduction in risk was greater for women (12%) than for men (6%)Seat belts provided much greater protection, with seat belt use reducing the risk of death by 65% (or by 68% in combination with an air bag) PMID:12003882
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Curtis, Peter J; Sampson, Mike; Potter, John; Dhatariya, Ketan; Kroon, Paul A; Cassidy, Aedín
2012-02-01
To assess the effect of dietary flavonoids on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes on established statin and hypoglycemic therapy. Despite being medicated, patients with type 2 diabetes have elevated CVD risk, particularly postmenopausal women. Although dietary flavonoids have been shown to reduce CVD risk factors in healthy participants, no long-term trials have examined the additional benefits of flavonoids to CVD risk in medicated postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a parallel-design, placebo-controlled trial with type 2 diabetic patients randomized to consume 27 g/day (split dose) flavonoid-enriched chocolate (containing 850 mg flavan-3-ols [90 mg epicatechin] and 100 mg isoflavones [aglycone equivalents)]/day) or matched placebo for 1 year. Ninety-three patients completed the trial, and adherence was high (flavonoid 91.3%; placebo 91.6%). Compared with the placebo group, the combined flavonoid intervention resulted in a significant reduction in estimated peripheral insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR] -0.3 ± 0.2; P = 0.004) and improvement in insulin sensitivity (quantitative insulin sensitivity index [QUICKI] 0.003 ± 0.00; P = 0.04) as a result of a significant decrease in insulin levels (-0.8 ± 0.5 mU/L; P = 0.02). Significant reductions in total cholesterol:HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (-0.2 ± 0.1; P = 0.01) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) (-0.1 ± 0.1 mmol/L; P = 0.04) were also observed. Estimated 10-year total coronary heart disease risk (derived from UK Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm) was attenuated after flavonoid intervention (flavonoid +0.1 ± 0.3 vs. placebo 1.1 ± 0.3; P = 0.02). No effect on blood pressure, HbA(1c), or glucose was observed. One-year intervention with flavan-3-ols and isoflavones improved biomarkers of CVD risk, highlighting the additional benefit of flavonoids to standard drug therapy in managing CVD risk in postmenopausal type 2 diabetic patients.
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Curtis, Peter J.; Sampson, Mike; Potter, John; Dhatariya, Ketan; Kroon, Paul A.; Cassidy, Aedín
2012-01-01
OBJECTIVE To assess the effect of dietary flavonoids on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes on established statin and hypoglycemic therapy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Despite being medicated, patients with type 2 diabetes have elevated CVD risk, particularly postmenopausal women. Although dietary flavonoids have been shown to reduce CVD risk factors in healthy participants, no long-term trials have examined the additional benefits of flavonoids to CVD risk in medicated postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a parallel-design, placebo-controlled trial with type 2 diabetic patients randomized to consume 27 g/day (split dose) flavonoid-enriched chocolate (containing 850 mg flavan-3-ols [90 mg epicatechin] and 100 mg isoflavones [aglycone equivalents)]/day) or matched placebo for 1 year. RESULTS Ninety-three patients completed the trial, and adherence was high (flavonoid 91.3%; placebo 91.6%). Compared with the placebo group, the combined flavonoid intervention resulted in a significant reduction in estimated peripheral insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR] −0.3 ± 0.2; P = 0.004) and improvement in insulin sensitivity (quantitative insulin sensitivity index [QUICKI] 0.003 ± 0.00; P = 0.04) as a result of a significant decrease in insulin levels (−0.8 ± 0.5 mU/L; P = 0.02). Significant reductions in total cholesterol:HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (−0.2 ± 0.1; P = 0.01) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) (−0.1 ± 0.1 mmol/L; P = 0.04) were also observed. Estimated 10-year total coronary heart disease risk (derived from UK Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm) was attenuated after flavonoid intervention (flavonoid +0.1 ± 0.3 vs. placebo 1.1 ± 0.3; P = 0.02). No effect on blood pressure, HbA1c, or glucose was observed. CONCLUSIONS One-year intervention with flavan-3-ols and isoflavones improved biomarkers of CVD risk, highlighting the additional benefit of flavonoids to standard drug therapy in managing CVD risk in postmenopausal type 2 diabetic patients. PMID:22250063
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Nunes, Paulo A L D; Loureiro, Maria L; Piñol, Laia; Sastre, Sergio; Voltaire, Louinord; Canepa, Antonio
2015-01-01
Jellyfish outbreaks and their consequences appear to be on the increase around the world, and are becoming particularly relevant in the Mediterranean. No previous studies have quantified tourism losses caused by jellyfish outbreaks. We used a stated-choice questionnaire and a Random Utility Model to estimate the amount of time respondents would be willing to add to their journey, in terms of reported extra travel time, in order to reduce the risk of encountering jellyfish blooms in the Catalan coast. The estimation results indicated that the respondents were willing to spend on average an additional 23.8% of their travel time to enjoy beach recreation in areas with a lower risk of jellyfish blooms. Using as a reference the opportunity cost of time, we found that the subsample of individuals who made a trade-off between the disutility generated by travelling longer in order to lower the risk of jellyfish blooms, and the utility gained from reducing this risk, are willing to pay on average €3.20 per beach visit. This estimate, combined with the respondents' mean income, yielded annual economic gains associated with reduction of jellyfish blooms on the Catalan coast around €422.57 million, or about 11.95% of the tourism expenditures in 2012. From a policy-making perspective, this study confirms the importance of the economic impacts of jellyfish blooms and the need for mitigation strategies. In particular, providing daily information using social media applications or other technical devices may reduce these social costs. The current lack of knowledge about jellyfish suggests that providing this information to beach recreationists may be a substantially effective policy instrument for minimising the impact of jellyfish blooms.
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Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.; Loureiro, Maria L.; Piñol, Laia; Sastre, Sergio; Voltaire, Louinord; Canepa, Antonio
2015-01-01
Jellyfish outbreaks and their consequences appear to be on the increase around the world, and are becoming particularly relevant in the Mediterranean. No previous studies have quantified tourism losses caused by jellyfish outbreaks. We used a stated-choice questionnaire and a Random Utility Model to estimate the amount of time respondents would be willing to add to their journey, in terms of reported extra travel time, in order to reduce the risk of encountering jellyfish blooms in the Catalan coast. The estimation results indicated that the respondents were willing to spend on average an additional 23.8% of their travel time to enjoy beach recreation in areas with a lower risk of jellyfish blooms. Using as a reference the opportunity cost of time, we found that the subsample of individuals who made a trade-off between the disutility generated by travelling longer in order to lower the risk of jellyfish blooms, and the utility gained from reducing this risk, are willing to pay on average €3.20 per beach visit. This estimate, combined with the respondents’ mean income, yielded annual economic gains associated with reduction of jellyfish blooms on the Catalan coast around €422.57 million, or about 11.95% of the tourism expenditures in 2012. From a policy-making perspective, this study confirms the importance of the economic impacts of jellyfish blooms and the need for mitigation strategies. In particular, providing daily information using social media applications or other technical devices may reduce these social costs. The current lack of knowledge about jellyfish suggests that providing this information to beach recreationists may be a substantially effective policy instrument for minimising the impact of jellyfish blooms. PMID:26053674
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Cope, Anna B.; Crooks, Amanda M.; Chin, Tammy; Kuruc, JoAnn D.; McGee, Kara S.; Eron, Joseph J.; Hicks, Charles B.; Hightow-Weidman, Lisa B.; Gay, Cynthia L.
2014-01-01
Background Sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis following diagnosis of acute HIV infection (AHI) indicates ongoing high-risk sexual behavior and possible risk of HIV transmission. We assessed predictors of STI acquisition and the effect of time since care entry on STI incidence in AHI patients in care and receiving consistent risk-reduction messaging. Methods Data on incident gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomoniasis, primary/secondary syphilis, demographic, and clinical risk factors were abstracted from medical charts for patients diagnosed with AHI and engaged in care. Poisson regression models using generalized estimating equations were fit to estimate incidence rates (IR), incidence rate ratios (IRR), and robust 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Among 185 AHI patients, 26 (14%) were diagnosed with ≥1 incident STI over 709.4 person-years; 46 STIs were diagnosed during follow-up (IR=6.8/100 person-years). The median time from HIV care entry to first STI diagnosis was 609 days (range=168–1681). Men who have sex with men (MSM) (p=0.03), a shorter time between presentation to medical care and AHI diagnosis (p=0.06), and STI diagnosis prior to AHI diagnosis (p=0.0003) were predictors of incident STI. STI IR >1 year after entering care was double that of patients in care ≤1 year (IRR=2.0 95% CI 0.8–4.9). HIV viral load was above the limits of detection within 1 month of 11 STI diagnoses in 6 patients (23.1%) (median=15,898 copies/mL, range=244–152,000 copies/mL). Conclusions Despite regular HIV care, STI incidence was high among this primarily young, MSM AHI cohort. Early antiretroviral initiation may decrease HIV transmission given ongoing risk behaviors despite risk-reduction messaging. PMID:24922104
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Cope, Anna B; Crooks, Amanda M; Chin, Tammy; Kuruc, JoAnn D; McGee, Kara S; Eron, Joseph J; Hicks, Charles B; Hightow-Weidman, Lisa B; Gay, Cynthia L
2014-07-01
Sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis after diagnosis of acute HIV infection (AHI) indicates ongoing high-risk sexual behavior and possible risk of HIV transmission. We assessed predictors of STI acquisition and the effect of time since care entry on STI incidence in patients with AHI in care and receiving consistent risk-reduction messaging. Data on incident gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomoniasis, primary/secondary syphilis, demographic, and clinical risk factors were abstracted from medical charts for patients diagnosed as having AHI and engaged in care. Poisson regression models using generalized estimating equations were fit to estimate incidence rates (IRs), IR ratios, and robust 95% confidence intervals. Among 185 patients with AHI, 26 (14%) were diagnosed as having at least 1 incident STI over 709.4 person-years; 46 STIs were diagnosed during follow-up (IR, 6.8/100 person-years). The median time from HIV care entry to first STI diagnosis was 609 days (range, 168-1681 days). Men who have sex with men (P = 0.03), a shorter time between presentation to medical care and AHI diagnosis (P = 0.06), and STI diagnosis before AHI diagnosis (P = 0.0003) were predictors of incident STI. Sexually transmitted infection IR greater than 1 year after entering care was double that of patients in care 1 year or less (IR ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.8-4.9). HIV viral load was above the limits of detection within 1 month of 11 STI diagnoses in 6 patients (23.1%) (median, 15,898 copies/mL; range, 244-152,000 copies/mL). Despite regular HIV care, STI incidence was high among this primarily young, men who have sex with men AHI cohort. Early antiretroviral initiation may decrease HIV transmission given ongoing risk behaviors despite risk-reduction messaging.
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48 CFR 16.306 - Cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-10-01
... preliminary exploration, studies, and risk reduction have indicated a high degree of probability that the... the scope of work by stating a definite goal or target and specifying an end product. This form of... increases the estimated cost. (2) The term form describes the scope of work in general terms and obligates...
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The 2015 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has listed air pollution as the fourth-ranking global mortality risk factor. Many studies have estimated the global or national burden of disease attributed to air pollution. However, little effort has been focused on understanding ho...
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Long-chain ω-3 fatty acid intake and endometrial cancer risk in the Women’s Health Initiative12345
Brasky, Theodore M; Rodabough, Rebecca J; Liu, Jingmin; Kurta, Michelle L; Wise, Lauren A; Orchard, Tonya S; Cohn, David E; Belury, Martha A; White, Emily; Manson, JoAnn E; Neuhouser, Marian L
2015-01-01
Background: Inflammation may be important in endometrial cancer development. Long-chain ω-3 (n–3) polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCω-3PUFAs) may reduce inflammation and, therefore, reduce cancer risk. Because body mass is associated with both inflammation and endometrial cancer risk, it may modify the association of fat intake on risk. Objective: We examined whether intakes of LCω-3PUFAs were associated with endometrial cancer risk overall and stratified by body size and histologic subtype. Design: Women were n = 87,360 participants of the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study and Clinical Trials who were aged 50–79 y, had an intact uterus, and completed a baseline food-frequency questionnaire. After 13 y of follow-up, n = 1253 incident invasive endometrial cancers were identified. Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for the association of intakes of individual ω-3 fatty acids and fish with endometrial cancer risk. Results: Intakes of individual LCω-3PUFAs were associated with 15–23% linear reductions in endometrial cancer risk. In women with body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) <25, those in the upper compared with lowest quintiles of total LCω-3PUFA intake (sum of eicosapentaenoic, docosapentaenoic, and docosahexaenoic acids) had significantly reduced endometrial cancer risk (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.82; P-trend = 0.001), whereas there was little evidence of an association in overweight or obese women. The reduction in risk observed in normal-weight women was further specific to type I cancers. Conclusions: Long-chain ω-3 intake was associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk only in normal-weight women. Additional studies that use biomarkers of ω-3 intake are needed to more accurately estimate their effects on endometrial cancer risk. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00000611. PMID:25739930
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Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto
2004-01-01
A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.
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van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T
2012-10-01
Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.
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Isiordia-Espinoza, M A; Aragon-Martinez, O H; Martínez-Morales, J F; Zapata-Morales, J R
2015-11-01
The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the risk of surgical wound infection and the adverse effects of amoxicillin in healthy patients who required excision of third molars. We identified eligible reports from searches of PubMed, Medline®, the Cochrane Library, Imbiomed, LILACS, and Google Scholar. Studies that met our minimum requirements were evaluated using inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Oxford Quality Scale. Those with a score of 3 or more on this Scale were included and their data were extracted and analysed. For evaluation of the risk of infection the absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, and 95% CI were calculated. For evaluation of the risk of an adverse effect the absolute risk increase, number needed to harm, and 95% CI were calculated using the Risk Reduction Calculator. Each meta-analysis was made with the help of the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model, and estimates of risk (OR) and 95% CI were calculated using the Review Manager 5.3, from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk was assumed when the lower limit of the 95% CI was greater than 1. Probabilities of less than 0.05 were accepted as significant. The results showed that there was no reduction in the risk of infection when amoxicillin was given before or after operation compared with an untreated group or placebo. In conclusion, this study suggests that amoxicillin given prophylactically or postoperatively does not reduce the risk of infection in healthy patients having their third molars extracted. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi
2015-04-01
The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.
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Impact of Vaccination on 14 High-Risk HPV Type Infections: A Mathematical Modelling Approach
Vänskä, Simopekka; Auranen, Kari; Leino, Tuija; Salo, Heini; Nieminen, Pekka; Kilpi, Terhi; Tiihonen, Petri; Apter, Dan; Lehtinen, Matti
2013-01-01
The development of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection to cervical cancer is a complicated process. We considered solely hrHPV infections, thus avoiding the confounding effects of disease progression, screening, and treatments. To analyse hrHPV epidemiology and to estimate the overall impact of vaccination against infections with hrHPVs, we developed a dynamic compartmental transmission model for single and multiple infections with 14 hrHPV types. The infection-related parameters were estimated using population-based sexual behaviour and hrHPV prevalence data from Finland. The analysis disclosed the important role of persistent infections in hrHPV epidemiology, provided further evidence for a significant natural immunity, and demonstrated the dependence of transmission probability estimates on the model structure. The model predicted that vaccinating girls at 80% coverage will result in a 55% reduction in the overall hrHPV prevalence and a higher 65% reduction in the prevalence of persistent hrHPV infections in females. In males, the reduction will be 42% in the hrHPV prevalence solely by the herd effect from the 80% coverage in girls. If such high coverage among girls is not reached, it is still possible to reduce the female hrHPV prevalence indirectly by the herd effect if also boys are included in the vaccination program. On the other hand, any herd effects in older unvaccinated cohorts were minor. Limiting the epidemiological model to infection yielded improved understanding of the hrHPV epidemiology and of mechanisms with which vaccination impacts on hrHPV infections. PMID:24009669
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Reducing uncertainty in estimating virus reduction by advanced water treatment processes.
Gerba, Charles P; Betancourt, Walter Q; Kitajima, Masaaki; Rock, Channah M
2018-04-15
Treatment of wastewater for potable reuse requires the reduction of enteric viruses to levels that pose no significant risk to human health. Advanced water treatment trains (e.g., chemical clarification, reverse osmosis, ultrafiltration, advanced oxidation) have been developed to provide reductions of viruses to differing levels of regulatory control depending upon the levels of human exposure and associated health risks. Importance in any assessment is information on the concentration and types of viruses in the untreated wastewater, as well as the degree of removal by each treatment process. However, it is critical that the uncertainty associated with virus concentration and removal or inactivation by wastewater treatment be understood to improve these estimates and identifying research needs. We reviewed the critically literature to assess to identify uncertainty in these estimates. Biological diversity within families and genera of viruses (e.g. enteroviruses, rotaviruses, adenoviruses, reoviruses, noroviruses) and specific virus types (e.g. serotypes or genotypes) creates the greatest uncertainty. These aspects affect the methods for detection and quantification of viruses and anticipated removal efficiency by treatment processes. Approaches to reduce uncertainty may include; 1) inclusion of a virus indicator for assessing efficiency of virus concentration and detection by molecular methods for each sample, 2) use of viruses most resistant to individual treatment processes (e.g. adenoviruses for UV light disinfection and reoviruses for chlorination), 3) data on ratio of virion or genome copies to infectivity in untreated wastewater, and 4) assessment of virus removal at field scale treatment systems to verify laboratory and pilot plant data for virus removal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Comparison of Time-to-First Event and Recurrent Event Methods in Randomized Clinical Trials.
Claggett, Brian; Pocock, Stuart; Wei, L J; Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D
2018-03-27
Background -Most Phase-3 trials feature time-to-first event endpoints for their primary and/or secondary analyses. In chronic diseases where a clinical event can occur more than once, recurrent-event methods have been proposed to more fully capture disease burden and have been assumed to improve statistical precision and power compared to conventional "time-to-first" methods. Methods -To better characterize factors that influence statistical properties of recurrent-events and time-to-first methods in the evaluation of randomized therapy, we repeatedly simulated trials with 1:1 randomization of 4000 patients to active vs control therapy, with true patient-level risk reduction of 20% (i.e. RR=0.80). For patients who discontinued active therapy after a first event, we assumed their risk reverted subsequently to their original placebo-level risk. Through simulation, we varied a) the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk and b) the extent of treatment discontinuation. Findings were compared with those from actual randomized clinical trials. Results -As the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk was increased, both time-to-first and recurrent-events methods lost statistical power to detect a true risk reduction and confidence intervals widened. The recurrent-events analyses continued to estimate the true RR=0.80 as heterogeneity increased, while the Cox model produced estimates that were attenuated. The power of recurrent-events methods declined as the rate of study drug discontinuation post-event increased. Recurrent-events methods provided greater power than time-to-first methods in scenarios where drug discontinuation was ≤30% following a first event, lesser power with drug discontinuation rates of ≥60%, and comparable power otherwise. We confirmed in several actual trials in chronic heart failure that treatment effect estimates were attenuated when estimated via the Cox model and that increased statistical power from recurrent-events methods was most pronounced in trials with lower treatment discontinuation rates. Conclusions -We find that the statistical power of both recurrent-events and time-to-first methods are reduced by increasing heterogeneity of patient risk, a parameter not included in conventional power and sample size formulas. Data from real clinical trials are consistent with simulation studies, confirming that the greatest statistical gains from use of recurrent-events methods occur in the presence of high patient heterogeneity and low rates of study drug discontinuation.
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The association of health risks with on-the-job productivity.
Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Conti, Daniel J; Schultz, Alyssa B; Pransky, Glenn; Edington, Dee W
2005-08-01
Decreased on-the-job productivity represents a large yet poorly characterized indirect cost to employers. We studied the impact of employee health risk factors on self-reported worker productivity (presenteeism). Using a brief version of the Work Limitation Questionnaire incorporated into a Health Risk Appraisal, 28,375 employees of a national company responded to the survey. The association between health risks and work limitation and each of the four domains was examined. Percentage of lost productivity also was estimated. Ten of 12 health risk factors studied were significantly associated with self-reported work limitations. The strength of the associations varied between risks and the four domains of work limitation. Perception-related risk factors such as life dissatisfaction, job dissatisfaction, poor health, and stress showed the greatest association with presenteeism. As the number of self-reported health risk factors increased, so did the percentage of employees reporting work limitations. Each additional risk factor was associated with 2.4% excess productivity reduction. Medium and high-risk individuals were 6.2% and 12.2% less productive than low-risk individuals, respectively. The annual cost of lost productivity in this corporation was estimated at between 99Mdollars and 185Mdollars or between 1392dollars and 2592dollars per employee. Health risk factors represent additional causes of lost productivity.
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Liu, Chieh-Yu; Chen, Hui-Chun
2018-05-02
This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of monotherapy aspirin and warfarin for stroke prevention in low-risk atrial fibrillation (AF) by using a population-based cohort study in Taiwan. A newly diagnosed low-risk AF patient cohort were identified by using National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan in 2008. The study cohort was observed with a follow-up of 2 years to examine the onset of ischemic stroke (IS) (to 2010). The longitudinal data were analyzed by using generalized estimation equations (GEE). A total of 8,065 newly-diagnosed low-risk AF patients were identified in 2008. 7.4% were prescribed with aspirin and 4.6% were prescribed with warfarin. The GEE results showed that low-risk AF patients with hypertension who received warfarin were associated with a statistically significant 58.4% reduction of IS risk (OR = 0.416, p = 0.024, 95% CI 0.194-0.891). Additionally, low-risk AF patients with hyperlipidemia who received warfarin were associated with a 69.3% reduction of IS risk (OR = 0.307, p = 0.044, 95% CI 0.097-0.969). Warfarin is suggested to be prescribed in preventing ischemic stroke for low-stroke-risk atrial fibrillation patients with hypertension and hyperlipidemia.
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Occupational Sunlight Exposure and Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma
Karami, Sara; Boffetta, Paolo; Stewart, Patricia; Rothman, Nathaniel; Hunting, Katherine L.; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Berndt, Sonja I.; Brennan, Paul; Chow, Wong-Ho; Moore, Lee E.; Zaridze, David; Mukeria, Anush; Janout, Vladimir; Kollarova, Helena; Bencko, Vladimir; Holcatova, Ivana; Navritalova, Marie; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Mates, Dana; Gromiec, Jan P.
2010-01-01
Background Recent findings indicate that vitamin D obtained from ultraviolet (UV) exposure may reduce the risk of a number of different cancers. Vitamin D is metabolized to its active form within the kidney, the major organ for vitamin D metabolism and activity. Since both the incidence of renal cell cancer and prevalence of vitamin D deficiency have increased over the past few decades, this study sought to explore whether occupational UV exposure was associated with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk. Methods A hospital-based case-control study of 1,097 RCC cases and 1,476 controls was conducted in four Central and Eastern European countries. Demographic and occupational information was collected to examine the association between occupational UV exposure and RCC risk. Results A significant (24%-38%) reduction in RCC risk was observed with increasing occupational UV exposure among male participants. No association between UV exposure and RCC risk was observed among female participants. When analyses were stratified by latitude as another estimate of sunlight intensity, a stronger (71%-73%) reduction in RCC risk was observed between UV exposure and cancer risk among males residing at the highest latitudes. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that among males there is an inverse association between occupational UV exposure and renal cancer risk. Replication studies are warranted to confirm these results. PMID:20213683
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Coates, R J; Uhler, R J; Hall, H I; Potischman, N; Brinton, L A; Ballard-Barbash, R; Gammon, M D; Brogan, D R; Daling, J R; Malone, K E; Schoenberg, J B; Swanson, C A
1999-09-01
Findings have been inconsistent on effects of adolescent body size and adult weight gain on risk of breast cancer in young women. These relations were examined in a population-based case control study of 1590 women less than 45 years of age newly diagnosed with breast cancer during 1990-1992 in three areas of the US and an age-matched control group of 1390 women. Height and weight were measured at interview and participants asked to recall information about earlier body size. Logistic regression was used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer adjusted for other risk factors. Women who were either much heavier or lighter than average in adolescence or at age 20 were at reduced risk. Weight gain after age 20 resulted in reduced risk, but the effect was confined to early-stage and, more specifically, lower grade breast cancer. Neither the risk reduction nor the variation by breast cancer stage or grade was explained by the method of cancer detection or by prior mammography history. These findings suggest that relations between breast cancer risk in young women and body weight at different ages is complex and that the risk reduction with adult weight gain is confined to less aggressive cancers.
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Assessing the transfer of risk due to transportation of agricultural products.
Li, Pei-Chiun; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Ma, Hwong-Wen
2015-02-01
Health risk assessment (HRA) is the process used to estimate adverse health effects on humans. The importance and sensitivity of food chains to HRA have been observed, but the impact of the transportation of food has generally been ignored. This study developed an exposure assessment to demonstrate the significance of the transportation of agricultural products in HRA. The associated case study estimated the health risks derived from various sources of arsenic emissions in Taiwan. Two assessment scenarios, self-sufficiency and transportation of agricultural products, were compared to calculate risk transfer ratios that show the impact of agriculture transportation. The risk transfer ratios found by the study range from 0.22 to 42.10, indicating that the quantity of transportation of agricultural products is the critical factor. High air deposition and high agricultural production are the two main contributors to the effect of the transportation of agricultural products on HRA. Risk reduction measures could be applied to high-pollution areas as well as to areas with high agricultural productivity to reduce ingestion risks to residents. Certain areas that are sensitive to the transportation of agricultural products may incur more risks if emissions increase in agriculturally productive counties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.
Dall, Timothy M; Fulgoni, Victor L; Zhang, Yiduo; Reimers, Kristin J; Packard, Patricia T; Astwood, James D
2009-01-01
To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium. Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes. United States. Two hundred twenty-five million adults. Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension. We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively. The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cucinotta, Francis
Uncertainties in estimating health risks from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — comprised of protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei are an important limitation to long duration space travel. HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation leading to large uncertainties in predicting risks to humans. Our NASA Space Cancer Risk Model-2012 (NSCR-2012) for estimating lifetime cancer risks from space radiation included several new features compared to earlier models from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) used at NASA. New features of NSCR-2012 included the introduction of NASA defined radiation quality factors based on track structure concepts, a Bayesian analysis of the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) and its uncertainty, and the use of a never-smoker population to represent astronauts. However, NSCR-2012 did not include estimates of the role of qualitative differences between HZE particles and low LET radiation. In this report we discuss evidence for non-targeted effects increasing cancer risks at space relevant HZE particle absorbed doses in tissue (<0.2 Gy), and for increased tumor lethality due to the propensity for higher rates of metastatic tumors from high LET radiation suggested by animal experiments. The NSCR-2014 model considers how these qualitative differences modify the overall probability distribution functions (PDF) for cancer mortality risk estimates from space radiation. Predictions of NSCR-2014 for International Space Station missions and Mars exploration will be described, and compared to those of our earlier NSCR-2012 model.
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Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F
2016-06-01
We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Uncertainties in Projecting Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cucinotta, F.; Schimmerling, W.; Peterson, L.; Wilson, J.; Saganti, P.; Dicello, J.
The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, CNS risks, and non - cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low -Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of the primary factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objectives, i.e., number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits
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Use of meteorological information in the risk analysis of a mixed wind farm and solar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Bendel, D.
2010-09-01
Use of meteorological information in the risk analysis of a mixed wind farm and solar power plant portfolio H.-T. Mengelkamp*,** , D. Bendel** *GKSS Research Center Geesthacht GmbH **anemos Gesellschaft für Umweltmeteorologie mbH The renewable energy industry has rapidly developed during the last two decades and so have the needs for high quality comprehensive meteorological services. It is, however, only recently that international financial institutions bundle wind farms and solar power plants and offer shares in these aggregate portfolios. The monetary value of a mixed wind farm and solar power plant portfolio is determined by legal and technical aspects, the expected annual energy production of each wind farm and solar power plant and the associated uncertainty of the energy yield estimation or the investment risk. Building an aggregate portfolio will reduce the overall uncertainty through diversification in contrast to the single wind farm/solar power plant energy yield uncertainty. This is similar to equity funds based on a variety of companies or products. Meteorological aspects contribute to the diversification in various ways. There is the uncertainty in the estimation of the expected long-term mean energy production of the wind and solar power plants. Different components of uncertainty have to be considered depending on whether the power plant is already in operation or in the planning phase. The uncertainty related to a wind farm in the planning phase comprises the methodology of the wind potential estimation and the uncertainty of the site specific wind turbine power curve as well as the uncertainty of the wind farm effect calculation. The uncertainty related to a solar power plant in the pre-operational phase comprises the uncertainty of the radiation data base and that of the performance curve. The long-term mean annual energy yield of operational wind farms and solar power plants is estimated on the basis of the actual energy production and it's relation to a climatologically stable long-term reference period. These components of uncertainty are of technical nature and based on subjective estimations rather than on a statistically sound data analysis. And then there is the temporal and spatial variability of the wind speed and radiation. Their influence on the overall risk is determined by the regional distribution of the power plants. These uncertainty components are calculated on the basis of wind speed observations and simulations and satellite derived radiation data. The respective volatility (temporal variability) is calculated from the site specific time series and the influence on the portfolio through regional correlation. For an exemplary portfolio comprising fourteen wind farms and eight solar power plants the annual mean energy production to be expected is calculated, the different components of uncertainty are estimated for each single wind farm and solar power plant and for the portfolio as a whole. The reduction in uncertainty (or risk) through bundling the wind farms and the solar power plants (the portfolio effect) is calculated by Markowitz' Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory is applied separately for the wind farm and the solar power plant bundle and for the combination of both. The combination of wind and photovoltaic assets clearly shows potential for a risk reduction. Even assets with a comparably low expected return can lead to a significant risk reduction depending on their individual characteristics.
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Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Schlesinger, Sabrina; Fedirko, Veronika; Jenab, Mazda; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Freisling, Heinz; Romieu, Isabelle; Pischon, Tobias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Gunter, Marc J.; Dahm, Christina C.; Overvad, Kim; Rostgaard-Hansen, Agnetha Linn; Tjønneland, Anne; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Agnoli, Claudia; Mattiello, Amalia; Bradbury, Kathryn; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Riboli, Elio; Boeing, Heiner
2017-01-01
Abstract Evidence indicates that gaining weight in adult life is associated with an elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, biological mechanisms that may explain this association remain unclear. We evaluated the mediation effect of 20 different biomarkers on the relationship between adult weight gain and colorectal cancer, using data from a prospective nested case-control study of 452 incident cases diagnosed between 1992 and 2003 and matched within risk sets to 452 controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The proportions of mediated effects (%) were estimated on the basis of differences in percent effect changes in conditional logistic regression models with and without additional adjustment for individual biomarkers. Greater adult weight gain (≥300 g/year vs. <300 g/year) was associated with a higher risk of colon cancer (multivariable-adjusted relative risk = 1.54, 95% confidence interval: 1.07, 2.24) but not rectal cancer (relative risk = 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.68, 1.66). This association was accounted for mostly by attained waist circumference (reduction of 61%) and by the biomarkers soluble leptin receptor (reduction of 43%) and glycated hemoglobin (reduction of 28%). These novel data suggest that the observed association between adult weight gain and colon cancer could be primarily explained by attained abdominal fatness and biomarkers of metabolic dysfunction. PMID:28387787
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Christensen, John L; Miller, Lynn Carol; Appleby, Paul Robert; Corsbie-Massay, Charisse; Godoy, Carlos Gustavo; Marsella, Stacy C; Read, Stephen J
2013-01-01
Introduction Men who have sex with men (MSM) often face socially sanctioned disapproval of sexual deviance from the heterosexual “normal.” Such sexual stigma can be internalized producing a painful affective state (i.e., shame). Although shame (e.g., addiction) can predict risk-taking (e.g., alcohol abuse), sexual shame's link to sexual risk-taking is unclear. Socially Optimized Learning in Virtual Environments (SOLVE) was designed to reduce MSM's sexual shame, but whether it does so, and if that reduction predicts HIV risk reduction, is unclear. To test if at baseline, MSM's reported past unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) is related to shame; MSM's exposure to SOLVE compared to a wait-list control (WLC) condition reduces MSM's shame; and shame-reduction mediates the link between WLC condition and UAI risk reduction. Methods HIV-negative, self-identified African American, Latino or White MSM, aged 18–24 years, who had had UAI with a non-primary/casual partner in the past three months were recruited for a national online study. Eligible MSM were computer randomized to either WLC or a web-delivered SOLVE. Retained MSM completed baseline measures (e.g., UAI in the past three months; current level of shame) and, in the SOLVE group, viewed at least one level of the game. At the end of the first session, shame was measured again. MSM completed follow-up UAI measures three months later. All data from 921 retained MSM (WLC condition, 484; SOLVE condition, 437) were analyzed, with missing data multiply imputed. Results At baseline, MSM reporting more risky sexual behaviour reported more shame (r s=0.21; p<0.001). MSM in the SOLVE intervention reported more shame reduction (M=−0.08) than MSM in the control condition (M=0.07; t(919)=4.24; p<0.001). As predicted, the indirect effect was significant (point estimate −0.10, 95% bias-corrected CI [−0.01 to −0.23] such that participants in the SOLVE treatment condition reported greater reductions in shame, which in turn predicted reductions in risky sexual behaviour at follow-up. The direct effect, however, was not significant. Conclusions SOLVE is the first intervention to: (1) significantly reduce shame for MSM; and (2) demonstrate that shame-reduction, due to an intervention, is predictive of risk (UAI) reduction over time. PMID:24242264
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Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.
1986-01-01
Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effectivemore » alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets.« less
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Zeng, Chan; Newcomer, Sophia R; Glanz, Jason M; Shoup, Jo Ann; Daley, Matthew F; Hambidge, Simon J; Xu, Stanley
2013-12-15
The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method is often used to examine the temporal association between vaccination and adverse events using only data from patients who experienced such events. Conditional Poisson regression models are used to estimate incidence rate ratios, and these models perform well with large or medium-sized case samples. However, in some vaccine safety studies, the adverse events studied are rare and the maximum likelihood estimates may be biased. Several bias correction methods have been examined in case-control studies using conditional logistic regression, but none of these methods have been evaluated in studies using the SCCS design. In this study, we used simulations to evaluate 2 bias correction approaches-the Firth penalized maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's bias reduction after maximum likelihood estimation-with small sample sizes in studies using the SCCS design. The simulations showed that the bias under the SCCS design with a small number of cases can be large and is also sensitive to a short risk period. The Firth correction method provides finite and less biased estimates than the maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's method. However, limitations still exist when the risk period in the SCCS design is short relative to the entire observation period.
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Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.
Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie
2005-10-01
The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.
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Richards, Joseph M.; Green, W. Reed
2013-01-01
Millwood Lake, in southwestern Arkansas, was constructed and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for flood-risk reduction, water supply, and recreation. The lake was completed in 1966 and it is likely that with time sedimentation has resulted in the reduction of storage capacity of the lake. The loss of storage capacity can cause less water to be available for water supply, and lessens the ability of the lake to mitigate flooding. Excessive sediment accumulation also can cause a reduction in aquatic habitat in some areas of the lake. Although many lakes operated by the USACE have periodic bathymetric and sediment surveys, none have been completed for Millwood Lake. In March 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the USACE, surveyed the bathymetry of Millwood Lake to prepare an updated bathymetric map and area/capacity table. The USGS also collected sediment thickness data in June 2013 to estimate the volume of sediment accumulated in the lake.
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Bauer, Greta R; Scheim, Ayden I; Pyne, Jake; Travers, Robb; Hammond, Rebecca
2015-06-02
Across Europe, Canada, and the United States, 22-43 % of transgender (trans) people report a history of suicide attempts. We aimed to identify intervenable factors (related to social inclusion, transphobia, or sex/gender transition) associated with reduced risk of past-year suicide ideation or attempt, and to quantify the potential population health impact. The Trans PULSE respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey collected data from trans people age 16+ in Ontario, Canada, including 380 who reported on suicide outcomes. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models were weighted using RDS II methods. Counterfactual risk ratios and population attributable risks were estimated using model-standardized risks. Among trans Ontarians, 35.1 % (95 % CI: 27.6, 42.5) seriously considered, and 11.2 % (95 % CI: 6.0, 16.4) attempted, suicide in the past year. Social support, reduced transphobia, and having any personal identification documents changed to an appropriate sex designation were associated with large relative and absolute reductions in suicide risk, as was completing a medical transition through hormones and/or surgeries (when needed). Parental support for gender identity was associated with reduced ideation. Lower self-reported transphobia (10(th) versus 90(th) percentile) was associated with a 66 % reduction in ideation (RR = 0.34, 95 % CI: 0.17, 0.67), and an additional 76 % reduction in attempts among those with ideation (RR = 0.24; 95 % CI: 0.07, 0.82). This corresponds to potential prevention of 160 ideations per 1000 trans persons, and 200 attempts per 1,000 with ideation, based on a hypothetical reduction of transphobia from current levels to the 10(th) percentile. Large effect sizes were observed for this controlled analysis of intervenable factors, suggesting that interventions to increase social inclusion and access to medical transition, and to reduce transphobia, have the potential to contribute to substantial reductions in the extremely high prevalences of suicide ideation and attempts within trans populations. Such interventions at the population level may require policy change.
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Jones, Miranda R.; Barnoya, Joaquin; Stranges, Saverio; Losonczy, Lia; Navas-Acien, Ana
2014-01-01
Background Legislations banning smoking in indoor public places and workplaces are being implemented worldwide to protect the population from secondhand smoke exposure. Several studies have reported reductions in hospitalizations for acute coronary events following the enactment of smoke-free laws. Objective We set out to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies examining how legislations that ban smoking in indoor public places impact the risk of acute coronary events. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant bibliographies including previous systematic reviews for studies that evaluated changes in acute coronary events, following implementation of smoke-free legislations. Studies were identified through December 2013. We pooled relative risk (RR) estimates for acute coronary events comparing post- vs. pre-legislation using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models. Results Thirty-one studies providing estimates for 47 locations were included. The legislations were implemented between 1991 and 2010. Following the enactment of smoke-free legislations, there was a 12 % reduction in hospitalizations for acute coronary events (pooled RR: 0.88, 95 % CI: 0.85–0.90). Reductions were 14 % in locations that implemented comprehensive legislations compared to an 8 % reduction in locations that only had partial restrictions. In locations with reductions in smoking prevalence post-legislation above the mean (2.1 % reduction) there was a 14 % reduction in events compared to 10 % in locations below the mean. The RRs for acute coronary events associated with enacting smoke-free legislation were 0.87 vs. 0.89 in locations with smoking prevalence pre-legislation above and below the mean (23.1 %), and 0.87 vs. 0.89 in studies from the Americas vs. other regions. Conclusion The implementation of smoke-free legislations was related to reductions in acute coronary event hospitalizations in most populations evaluated. Benefits are greater in locations with comprehensive legislations and with greater reduction in smoking prevalence post-legislation. These cardiovascular benefits reinforce the urgent need to enact and enforce smoke-free legislations that protect all citizens around the world from exposure to tobacco smoke in public places. PMID:25328861
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Prentice, Ross L.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Langer, Robert D.; Pettinger, Mary; Hendrix, Susan L.; Hubbell, F. Allan; Kooperberg, Charles; Kuller, Lewis H.; Lane, Dorothy S.; McTiernan, Anne; O’Sullivan, Mary Jo; Rossouw, Jacques E.; Anderson, Garnet L.
2009-01-01
The Women’s Health Initiative randomized controlled trial found a trend (p = 0.09) toward a lower breast cancer risk among women assigned to daily 0.625-mg conjugated equine estrogens (CEEs) compared with placebo, in contrast to an observational literature that mostly reports a moderate increase in risk with estrogenalone preparations. In 1993–2004 at 40 US clinical centers, breast cancer hazard ratio estimates for this CEE regimen were compared between the Women’s Health Initiative clinical trial and observational study toward understanding this apparent discrepancy and refining hazard ratio estimates. After control for prior use of postmenopausal hormone therapy and for confounding factors, CEE hazard ratio estimates were higher from the observational study compared with the clinical trial by 43% (p = 0.12). However, after additional control for time from menopause to first use of postmenopausal hormone therapy, the hazard ratios agreed closely between the two cohorts (p = 0.82). For women who begin use soon after menopause, combined analyses of clinical trial and observational study data do not provide clear evidence of either an overall reduction or an increase in breast cancer risk with CEEs, although hazard ratios appeared to be relatively higher among women having certain breast cancer risk factors or a low body mass index. PMID:18448442
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Association of Vitamin A and Carotenoid Intake with Melanoma Risk in a Large Prospective Cohort
Asgari, Maryam M.; Brasky, Theodore M.; White, Emily
2012-01-01
Laboratory data suggest that intake of vitamin A and carotenoids, may have chemopreventive benefits against melanoma, but epidemiologic studies examining the association have yielded conflicting results. We examined whether dietary and supplemental vitamin A and carotenoid intake was associated with melanoma risk among 69,635 men and women who were participants of the Vitamins and Lifestyle (VITAL) cohort study in Western Washington. After an average of 5.84 years of follow-up, 566 incident melanomas were identified. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for risk of melanoma associated with dietary, supplement and total vitamin A and carotenoid intake after adjusting for melanoma risk factors. Baseline use of individual retinol supplements was associated with a significant reduction in melanoma risk (HR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.41–0.89). High-dose (>1200 ug/day) supplemental retinol was also associated with reduced melanoma risk (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55–1.00), as compared to non-users. The reduction in melanoma risk was stronger in sun-exposed anatomic sites. There was no association of melanoma risk with dietary or total intake of vitamin A or carotenoids. Retinol supplementation may have a preventative role in melanoma among women. PMID:22377763
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Estimating the economic impact of seismic activity in Kyrgyzstan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko
2017-04-01
Estimating the short and long-term economical impact of large-scale damaging events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or tropical storms is an important component of risk assessment, whose outcomes are routinely used to improve risk awareness, optimize investments in prevention and mitigation actions, as well as to customize insurance and reinsurance rates to specific geographical regions or single countries. Such estimations can be carried out by modeling the whole causal process, from hazard assessment to the estimation of loss for specific categories of assets. This approach allows a precise description of the various physical mechanisms contributing to direct seismic losses. However, it should reflect the underlying epistemic and random uncertainties in all involved components in a meaningful way. Within a project sponsored by the World Bank, a seismic risk study for the Kyrgyz Republic has been conducted, focusing on the assessment of social and economical impacts assessed in terms of direct losses of the residential and public building stocks. Probabilistic estimates based on stochastic event catalogs have been computed and integrated with the simulation of specific earthquake scenarios. Although very few relevant data are available in the region on the economic consequences of past damaging events, the proposed approach sets a benchmark for decision makers and policy holders to better understand the short and long term consequences of earthquakes in the region. The presented results confirm the high level of seismic risk of the Kyrgyz Republic territory, outlining the most affected regions; thus advocating for significant Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures to be implemented by local decision- and policy-makers.
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Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O'Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind
2013-01-01
To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.
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Thomas, Duncan C
2017-07-01
Screening behavior depends on previous screening history and family members' behaviors, which can act as both confounders and intermediate variables on a causal pathway from screening to disease risk. Conventional analyses that adjust for these variables can lead to incorrect inferences about the causal effect of screening if high-risk individuals are more likely to be screened. Analyzing the data in a manner that treats screening as randomized conditional on covariates allows causal parameters to be estimated; inverse probability weighting based on propensity of exposure scores is one such method considered here. I simulated family data under plausible models for the underlying disease process and for screening behavior to assess the performance of alternative methods of analysis and whether a targeted screening approach based on individuals' risk factors would lead to a greater reduction in cancer incidence in the population than a uniform screening policy. Simulation results indicate that there can be a substantial underestimation of the effect of screening on subsequent cancer risk when using conventional analysis approaches, which is avoided by using inverse probability weighting. A large case-control study of colonoscopy and colorectal cancer from Germany shows a strong protective effect of screening, but inverse probability weighting makes this effect even stronger. Targeted screening approaches based on either fixed risk factors or family history yield somewhat greater reductions in cancer incidence with fewer screens needed to prevent one cancer than population-wide approaches, but the differences may not be large enough to justify the additional effort required. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B207.
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Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O’Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind
2013-01-01
Aims To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Methods and Results Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. Conclusions CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies. PMID:23936122
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[Shereshevsky-Turner syndrome: Estrogen replacement therapy and cardiovascular risk factors].
Yevstigneeva, O A; Andreeva, E N; Grigoryan, O R; Volevodz, N N; Melnichenko, G A; Dedov, I I
To investigate the impact of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) on the expression of risk factors for cardiovascular events (CVEs) in patients with Shereshevsky-Turner syndrome (STS); to elaborate an algorithm for patient management using MHT. From 2010 to 2012, a total of 41 patients aged 14 to 35 years with STS were examined in the framework of a prospective observational study. 100 STS case histories in 2000 to 2009 were retrospectively analyzed. The indicators of the so-called cardiometabolic risk, such as body mass index (BMI), lipidogram readings, venous plasma glucose levels, and blood pressure, were estimated in relation to the type of MHT. In the prospective part of the investigation, an angioscan was used to estimate vessel characteristics (stiffness, wall tone, endothelial function (EF)), by using the examination data. 90% of the patients with STS were found to have risk factors for CVEs: atherogenic dyslipidemia (85%; 51% in the general female population of the same age), diastolic hypertension (36%; no more than 5% that is not typical for age-matched healthy general female population). In addition to increased arterial wall stiffness (AWS), obvious EF disorder is typical for STS patients. MHT was accompanied by a dose-dependent (estradiol, at least 2 mg) reduction in diastolic blood pressure by an average of 13% over 24 months, an increase in high density lipoprotein levels by more than 10% over 24 months and also contributedto a decrease in AWS and an improvement in EF. By favorably affecting the EF of vessels and reducing the severity of atherogenic dyslipidemia, MHT potentially enables a reduction in CV risk in patients with STS.
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Shrestha, S; Haramoto, E; Shindo, J
2017-11-01
To assess diarrhoeal risks from enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, Giardia and Cryptosporidium from consuming raw spinach, cabbage, carrots and tomatoes in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The annual infection risk was quantified using the probabilistic Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment approach, which considered 12 vegetable washing combinations. A new model was used to estimate dose of pathogens per exposure comprising parameters such as pathogen concentration in vegetable wash water before selling and eating, vegetable consumption rate, remaining pathogen ratio after washing, remaining water on vegetables after washing and water treatment removal efficiency. When all washing combinations were considered, high infection risks above the acceptable level of -4 log 10 infection per person per year were obtained, whereas the risk was reduced when other sources excluding river water were used. Assuming use of water treated with ceramic filters by all consumers, a 0-2 log 10 reduction in the estimated risks was obtained, which was insufficient to achieve the required risk level. High risk of diarrhoea prevails among raw vegetable consumers in the valley. It is needed to protect vegetable washing water sources and establish advanced water treatment methods to achieve the required level of public health risk. © 2017 The Society for Applied Microbiology.
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Stenholm, Sari; Head, Jenny; Kivimäki, Mika; Kawachi, Ichiro; Aalto, Ville; Zins, Marie; Goldberg, Marcel; Zaninotto, Paola; Magnuson Hanson, Linda; Westerlund, Hugo; Vahtera, Jussi
2016-08-01
Smoking, physical inactivity and obesity are modifiable risk factors for morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to examine the extent to which the co-occurrence of these behaviour-related risk factors predict healthy life expectancy and chronic disease-free life expectancy in four European cohort studies. Data were drawn from repeated waves of four cohort studies in England, Finland, France and Sweden. Smoking status, physical inactivity and obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 ) were examined separately and in combination. Health expectancy was estimated by using two health indicators: suboptimal self-rated health and having a chronic disease (cardiovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease and diabetes). Multistate life table models were used to estimate sex-specific healthy life expectancy and chronic disease-free life expectancy from ages 50 to 75 years. Compared with men and women with at least two behaviour-related risk factors, those with no behaviour-related risk factors could expect to live on average8 years longer in good health and 6 years longer free of chronic diseases between ages 50 and 75. Having any single risk factor was also associated with reduction in healthy years. No consistent differences between cohorts were observed. Data from four European countries show that persons with individual and co-occurring behaviour-related risk factors have shorter healthy life expectancy and shorter chronic disease-free life expectancy. Population level reductions in smoking, physical inactivity and obesity could increase life-years lived in good health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
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Li, Ya-Ru; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald
2014-09-02
We analyzed sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and fine particulate sulfate (PM2.5 sulfate) concentrations in the southeastern United States during 2002-2012, in order to evaluate the health impacts in North Carolina (NC) of the NC Clean Smokestacks Act of 2002. This state law required progressive reductions (beyond those mandated by federal rules) in pollutant emissions from NC's coal-fired power plants. Although coal-fired power plants remain NC's leading SO2 source, a trend analysis shows significant declines in SO2 emissions (-20.3%/year) and PM2.5 sulfate concentrations (-8.7%/year) since passage of the act. Emissions reductions were significantly greater in NC than in neighboring states, and emissions and PM2.5 sulfate concentration reductions were highest in NC's piedmont region, where 9 of the state's 14 major coal-fired power plants are located. Our risk model estimates that these air quality improvements decreased the risk of premature death attributable to PM2.5 sulfate in NC by about 63%, resulting in an estimated 1700 (95% CI: 1500, 1800) deaths prevented in 2012. These findings lend support to recent studies predicting that implementing the proposed federal Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (recently upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court) could substantially decrease U.S. premature deaths attributable to coal-fired power plant emissions.
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The 2015 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has listed air pollution as the fourth-ranking global mortality risk factor. Few studies have attempted to understand how these burdens change through time, especially in the United States (US). Here we aim to estimate air pollution-r...
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Ship collision risk assessment for the Singapore Strait.
Qu, Xiaobo; Meng, Qiang; Suyi, Li
2011-11-01
The Singapore Strait is considered as the bottleneck and chokepoint of the shipping routes connecting the Indian and the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the ship collision risk assessment is of significant importance for ships passing through the narrow, shallow, and busy waterway. In this paper, three ship collision risk indices are initially proposed to quantitatively assess the ship collision risks in the Strait: index of speed dispersion, degree of acceleration and deceleration, and number of fuzzy ship domain overlaps. These three risk indices for the Singapore Strait are estimated by using the real-time ship locations and sailing speeds provide by Lloyd's MIU automatic identification system (AIS). Based on estimation of these three risk indices, it can be concluded that Legs 4W, 5W, 11E, and 12E are the most risky legs in the Strait. Therefore, the ship collision risk reduction solutions should be prioritized being implemented in these four legs. This study also finds that around 25% of the vessels sail with a speed in excess of the speed limit, which results in higher potentials of ship collision. Analysis indicates that the safety level would be significantly improved if all the vessels follow the passage guidelines. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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El-Tahawy, Abdelgawad S; Bazh, Eman K; Khalafalla, Reda E
2017-10-01
This study focuses on the risk factors associated with the prevalence of Fasciola affecting cattle population in three provinces belonging to the Nile Delta of Egypt and to estimate the economic losses as a result of fascioliasis. From January 2015 to end of December 2015, records of 21 farms (4976 cattle) were analyzed to screen the prevalence of fascioliasis among cattle farms, to identify its associated risk factors and its economic impacts on Nile Delta region of Egypt. The overall prevalence of fascioliasis in the Nile Delta region of Egypt was 9.77%. The prevalence of fascioliasis was found to be statistically significantly associated with age, sex, breed, and type of farms. The highest prevalence was observed in <2 age group (10.91%), and the lowest was >3 age groups (8.35%). In terms of body condition scores, cattle with medium and poor conditions were associated with fascioliasis more than those with good body condition. Besides, cattle raised in organic farms were associated with lower risk of fascioliasis than those in conventional farms. The prevalence of fascioliasis was noted more prominent in districts with moderate temperatures and with relative humidity (>60%). The annual overall costs for fascioliasis were estimated to be 221.2 USD/cow due to the significant reduction in body weight, reduction in milk production, and the treatment costs for fascioliasis. The results provided could be helpful for improving the control and preventive strategies.
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Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko
2017-04-01
The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local decision makers in implementing specific prevention and mitigation measures that are consistent with a broad risk reduction strategy.
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User Perceptions of a Dementia Risk Reduction Website and Its Promotion of Behavior Change
2013-01-01
Background Several modifiable health and lifestyle factors are consistently associated with dementia risk and it is estimated that significantly fewer people would develop dementia if the incidence of risk factors could be reduced. Despite this, Australians’ awareness of the health and lifestyle factors associated with dementia risk is low. Within a national community education campaign, Alzheimer’s Australia developed a dementia risk reduction website providing information about modifiable risk or protective factors for dementia. Objective This study aimed to assess the usefulness of the website content in improving knowledge and enabling adoption of recommended strategies, and to examine what additional resources consumers need. Methods Visitors to the website over a 3 month period were invited to complete an online survey, which asked them to rate their knowledge of dementia risk reduction before and after visiting the site, how important monitoring their health related behavior was to them before and after visiting the site, their current behavior related to health and lifestyle factors associated with dementia risk, their intentions to change behavior, and the usefulness of potential additional resources to help them do so. Results For this study, 123 Australian adults responded to the survey. 44.7% (55/122) were aged over 60 and 82.1% (98/119) were female. Respondents’ ratings and comments indicated they generally found the content interesting, informative, and helpful to them. Respondents’ ratings of their knowledge about the links between health and lifestyle factors and dementia risk significantly increased after visiting the website (P<.001). Their ratings of how important monitoring what they do in relation to their health and lifestyle factors were also significantly increased after visiting the website (P<.001). Average ratings for how well respondents felt they were doing at the time in relation to specific risk or protective factors were generally high, suggesting many website visitors already had high levels of health motivation and healthy lifestyle behaviors. 55.6% (45/81) said that after visiting the website their intention to make lifestyle changes was strong. Only 27.1% (22/81) said their intention to visit their doctor to discuss dementia risk reduction was strong. Potential additional resources that would help people assess and address their personal dementia risk factors were rated as more helpful than general information resources. Conclusions A dementia risk reduction website providing information about the current evidence and practical strategies was of interest and was useful to the Australian community. Benefits for visitors included increased knowledge and increased motivation to address relevant behaviors. Many visitors to the site were already health conscious, indicating that more needs to be done to get dementia risk reduction messages to the wider community. More interactive and personalized resources in future interventions may offer additional benefits to individuals. PMID:23608480
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Limitations of self-care in reducing the risk of lymphedema: supportive-educative systems.
Armer, Jane M; Brooks, Constance W; Stewart, Bob R
2011-01-01
The purpose of this study was to examine patient perceptions of limitations related to self-care measures to reduce lymphedema risk following breast cancer surgery. Secondary analysis of survey data from a companion study to a study piloting a behavioral-educational intervention was conducted to examine the specific limitations in performing lymphedema risk-reduction self-care measures. Findings suggest a more comprehensive approach is needed if patients are to engage in self-care actions to reduce lymphedema risk. Understanding the concepts of self-care and personal support interventions that include motivational interviewing can help nurses design supportive-educative care systems that assist patients in overcoming limitations in the estimative, transitional, and productive phases of self-care necessary to reduce lymphedema risk.
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Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing.
Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C; Chien, Tsair-Wei
2016-01-22
Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk.
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Bandosz, Piotr; O’Flaherty, Martin; Drygas, Wojciech; Rutkowski, Marcin; Koziarek, Jacek; Wyrzykowski, Bogdan; Bennett, Kathleen; Capewell, Simon
2012-01-01
Objectives To examine how much of the observed rapid decrease in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after the political, social, and economic transformation in the early 1990s could be explained by the use of medical and surgical treatments and how much by changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Design A modelling study. Setting Sources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys, and official statistics. Participants Population of adults aged 25-74 in Poland in 1991-2005. Main outcome measures Number of deaths prevented or postponed in 2005 attributable to specific treatments for coronary heart disease and changes in risk factors. A previously validated epidemiological model for coronary heart disease was used to combine and analyse data on the uptake and effectiveness of specific cardiac treatments and changes in risk factors. The observed fall in deaths from coronary heart disease from 1991 to 2005 was then partitioned among specific treatments and risk factor changes. Results From 1991 to 2005, the death rate from coronary heart disease in Poland halved, resulting in 26 200 fewer coronary deaths in 2005 in people aged 25-74. About 37% (minimum estimate 13%, maximum estimate 77%) of this decrease was attributable to treatments, including treatments for heart failure (12%), initial treatments for acute coronary syndrome (9%), secondary prevention treatments after myocardial infarction or revascularisation (7%), chronic angina treatments (3%), and other treatments (6%). About 54% of the fall was attributed to changes in risk factors (minimum estimate 41%, maximum estimate 65%), mainly reductions in total cholesterol concentration (39%) and an increase in leisuretime physical activity (10%); however, these were partially offset by increases in body mass index (−4%) and prevalence of diabetes (−2%). Blood pressure fell in women, explaining about 29% of their decrease in mortality, but rose in men generating a negative influence (−8%). About 15% of the observed decrease in mortality was attributable to reduced smoking in men but was negligible in women. Conclusions Over half of the recent fall in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland can be attributed to reductions in major risk factors and about one third to evidence based medical treatments. PMID:22279114
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Houle, Sherilyn K D; Chuck, Anderson W; McAlister, Finlay A; Tsuyuki, Ross T
2012-06-01
To quantify the potential cost savings of a community pharmacy-based hypertension management program based on the results of the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Intervention by Pharmacists-Hypertension (SCRIP-HTN) study in terms of avoided cardiovascular events-myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization, and to compare these cost savings with the cost of the pharmacist intervention program. An economic model was developed to estimate the potential cost avoidance in direct health care resources from reduced cardiovascular events over a 1-year period. The SCRIP-HTN study found that patients with diabetes mellitus and hypertension who were receiving the pharmacist intervention had a greater mean reduction in systolic blood pressure of 5.6 mm Hg than patients receiving usual care. For our model, published meta-analysis data were used to compute cardiovascular event absolute risk reductions associated with a 5.6-mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure over 6 months. Costs/event were obtained from administrative data, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results. Two program scenarios were evaluated-one with monthly follow-up for a total of 1 year with sustained blood pressure reduction, and the other in which pharmacist care ended after the 6-month program but the effects on systolic blood pressure diminished over time. The cost saving results from the economic model were then compared with the costs of the program. Annual estimated cost savings (in 2011 Canadian dollars) from avoided cardiovascular events were $265/patient (95% confidence interval [CI] $63-467) if the program lasted 1 year or $221/patient (95%CI $72-371) if pharmacist care ceased after 6 months with an assumed loss of effect afterward. Estimated pharmacist costs were $90/patient for 6 months or $150/patient for 1 year, suggesting that pharmacist-managed programs are cost saving, with the annual net total cost savings/patient estimated to be $131 for a program lasting 6 months or $115 for a program lasting 1 year. Our model found that community pharmacist interventions capable of reducing systolic blood pressure by 5.6 mm Hg within 6 months are cost saving and result in improved patient outcomes. Wider adoption of pharmacist-managed hypertension care for patients with diabetes and hypertension is encouraged. © 2012 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.
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The development of peer educator-based harm reduction programmes in Northern Vietnam.
Walsh, Nick; Gibbie, Tania M; Higgs, Peter
2008-03-01
Injecting drug use remains an important risk factor for transmission in Vietnam, with an estimated 50% of the 290 000 people living with HIV/AIDS reporting injecting drug use as a risk factor. Despite this, effective harm reduction interventions are generally lacking. This paper describes the implementation of peer-based harm reduction programmes in two rural provinces of Vietnam. Peer educators were trained in basic HIV prevention, including harm reduction. After significant preparation work with the Provincial AIDS Committees of Bac Giang and Thanh Hoa and other relevant national, provincial and local authorities, the interventions were commenced. Harm reduction interventions were delivered through outreach as well as on-site. This included needle and syringe distribution and collection. Community advocacy occurred throughout the life of the project. Local authorities and peers believed that while there was a general reduction in stigma and discrimination, legal barriers associated particularly with the carrying of injecting equipment remained. This impacted upon the ability of peer educators to work with their clients. Peer-based delivery of harm reduction intervention is acceptable. Harm reduction interventions, including needle and syringe programmes, are feasible and acceptable in these two rural Vietnamese provinces. Community acceptance and uptake of these interventions is key to successful expansion across the region. Active participation by families of drug users seems crucial. This initiative demonstrates that despite a difficult policy environment, peer-delivered needle and syringe programmes are feasible within a rural Asian environment as long as there is adequate local political and community support.
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Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod; Knight, Josh; Nghiem, Nhung
2016-03-11
Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.
2013-12-01
Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sung, Jiwon; Baek, Tae Seong; Yoon, Myonggeun; Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Dong Hyun
2014-09-01
This study evaluated the effect of a simple shielding method using a thin lead sheet on the imaging dose caused by cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). Reduction of secondary doses from CBCT was measured using a radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeter (RPLGD) placed inside an anthropomorphic phantom. The entire body, except for the region scanned by using CBCT, was shielded by wrapping it with a 2-mm lead sheet. Changes in secondary cancer risk due to shielding were calculated using BEIR VII models. Doses to out-of-field organs for head-and-neck, chest, and pelvis scans were decreased 15 ~ 100%, 23 ~ 90%, and 23 ~ 98%, respectively, and the average reductions in lifetime secondary cancer risk due to the 2-mm lead shielding were 1.6, 11.5, and 12.7 persons per 100,000, respectively. These findings suggest that a simple, thin-lead-sheet-based shielding method can effectively decrease secondary doses to out-of-field regions for CBCT, which reduces the lifetime cancer risk on average by 9 per 100,000 patients.
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Holt, Tim A; Thorogood, Margaret; Griffiths, Frances; Munday, Stephen; Friede, Tim; Stables, David
2010-01-01
Background Primary care databases contain cardiovascular disease risk factor data, but practical tools are required to improve identification of at-risk patients. Aim To test the effects of a system of electronic reminders (the ‘e-Nudge’) on cardiovascular events and the adequacy of data for cardiovascular risk estimation. Design of study Randomised controlled trial. Setting Nineteen general practices in the West Midlands, UK. Method The e-Nudge identifies four groups of patients aged over 50 years on the basis of estimated cardiovascular risk and adequacy of risk factor data in general practice computers. Screen messages highlight individuals at raised risk and prompt users to complete risk profiles where necessary. The proportion of the study population in the four groups was measured, as well as the rate of cardiovascular events in each arm after 2 years. Results Over 38 000 patients' electronic records were randomised. The intervention led to an increase in the proportion of patients with sufficient data who were identifiably at risk, with a difference of 1.94% compared to the control group (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.38 to 2.50, P<0.001). A corresponding reduction occurred in the proportion potentially at risk but requiring further data for a risk estimation (difference = –3.68%, 95% CI = –4.53 to –2.84, P<0.001). No significant difference was observed in the incidence of cardiovascular events (rate ratio = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.10, P = 0.59). Conclusion Automated electronic reminders using routinely collected primary care data can improve the adequacy of cardiovascular risk factor information during everyday practice and increase the visibility of the at-risk population. PMID:20353659
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Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.
Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin
2016-10-01
Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Impact of Oophorectomy on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Women With a BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutation
Finch, Amy P.M.; Lubinski, Jan; Møller, Pål; Singer, Christian F.; Karlan, Beth; Senter, Leigha; Rosen, Barry; Maehle, Lovise; Ghadirian, Parviz; Cybulski, Cezary; Huzarski, Tomasz; Eisen, Andrea; Foulkes, William D.; Kim-Sing, Charmaine; Ainsworth, Peter; Tung, Nadine; Lynch, Henry T.; Neuhausen, Susan; Metcalfe, Kelly A.; Thompson, Islay; Murphy, Joan; Sun, Ping; Narod, Steven A.
2014-01-01
Purpose The purposes of this study were to estimate the reduction in risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation after oophorectomy, by age of oophorectomy; to estimate the impact of prophylactic oophorectomy on all-cause mortality; and to estimate 5-year survival associated with clinically detected ovarian, occult, and peritoneal cancers diagnosed in the cohort. Patients and Methods Women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation were identified from an international registry; 5,783 women completed a baseline questionnaire and ≥ one follow-up questionnaires. Women were observed until either diagnosis of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer, death, or date of most recent follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer incidence and all-cause mortality associated with oophorectomy were evaluated using time-dependent survival analyses. Results After an average follow-up period of 5.6 years, 186 women developed either ovarian (n = 132), fallopian (n = 22), or peritoneal (n = 32) cancer, of whom 68 have died. HR for ovarian, fallopian, or peritoneal cancer associated with bilateral oophorectomy was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.30; P < .001). Among women who had no history of cancer at baseline, HR for all-cause mortality to age 70 years associated with an oophorectomy was 0.23 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.39; P < .001). Conclusion Preventive oophorectomy was associated with an 80% reduction in the risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers and a 77% reduction in all-cause mortality. PMID:24567435
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Impact of oophorectomy on cancer incidence and mortality in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation.
Finch, Amy P M; Lubinski, Jan; Møller, Pål; Singer, Christian F; Karlan, Beth; Senter, Leigha; Rosen, Barry; Maehle, Lovise; Ghadirian, Parviz; Cybulski, Cezary; Huzarski, Tomasz; Eisen, Andrea; Foulkes, William D; Kim-Sing, Charmaine; Ainsworth, Peter; Tung, Nadine; Lynch, Henry T; Neuhausen, Susan; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Thompson, Islay; Murphy, Joan; Sun, Ping; Narod, Steven A
2014-05-20
The purposes of this study were to estimate the reduction in risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation after oophorectomy, by age of oophorectomy; to estimate the impact of prophylactic oophorectomy on all-cause mortality; and to estimate 5-year survival associated with clinically detected ovarian, occult, and peritoneal cancers diagnosed in the cohort. Women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation were identified from an international registry; 5,783 women completed a baseline questionnaire and ≥ one follow-up questionnaires. Women were observed until either diagnosis of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer, death, or date of most recent follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer incidence and all-cause mortality associated with oophorectomy were evaluated using time-dependent survival analyses. After an average follow-up period of 5.6 years, 186 women developed either ovarian (n = 132), fallopian (n = 22), or peritoneal (n = 32) cancer, of whom 68 have died. HR for ovarian, fallopian, or peritoneal cancer associated with bilateral oophorectomy was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.30; P < .001). Among women who had no history of cancer at baseline, HR for all-cause mortality to age 70 years associated with an oophorectomy was 0.23 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.39; P < .001). Preventive oophorectomy was associated with an 80% reduction in the risk of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers and a 77% reduction in all-cause mortality. © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Angel, Erin
Advances in Computed Tomography (CT) technology have led to an increase in the modality's diagnostic capabilities and therefore its utilization, which has in turn led to an increase in radiation exposure to the patient population. As a result, CT imaging currently constitutes approximately half of the collective exposure to ionizing radiation from medical procedures. In order to understand the radiation risk, it is necessary to estimate the radiation doses absorbed by patients undergoing CT imaging. The most widely accepted risk models are based on radiosensitive organ dose as opposed to whole body dose. In this research, radiosensitive organ dose was estimated using Monte Carlo based simulations incorporating detailed multidetector CT (MDCT) scanner models, specific scan protocols, and using patient models based on accurate patient anatomy and representing a range of patient sizes. Organ dose estimates were estimated for clinical MDCT exam protocols which pose a specific concern for radiosensitive organs or regions. These dose estimates include estimation of fetal dose for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen pelvis CT exams or undergoing exams to diagnose pulmonary embolism and venous thromboembolism. Breast and lung dose were estimated for patients undergoing coronary CTA imaging, conventional fixed tube current chest CT, and conventional tube current modulated (TCM) chest CT exams. The correlation of organ dose with patient size was quantified for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen/pelvis exams and for all breast and lung dose estimates presented. Novel dose reduction techniques were developed that incorporate organ location and are specifically designed to reduce close to radiosensitive organs during CT acquisition. A generalizable model was created for simulating conventional and novel attenuation-based TCM algorithms which can be used in simulations estimating organ dose for any patient model. The generalizable model is a significant contribution of this work as it lays the foundation for the future of simulating TCM using Monte Carlo methods. As a result of this research organ dose can be estimated for individual patients undergoing specific conventional MDCT exams. This research also brings understanding to conventional and novel close reduction techniques in CT and their effect on organ dose.
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Hammett, Theodore M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Kling, Ryan; Kieu, Binh Thanh; McNicholl, Janet M.; Wasinrapee, Punneeporn; McDougal, J. Stephen; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Meng, Donghua; Huu Nguyen, Tho; Ngoc Hoang, Quyen; Van Hoang, Tren
2012-01-01
Introduction HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China. Methods Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples. Results We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months. Discussion This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication. PMID:22952640
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Leizorovicz, Alain; Lechat, Philippe; Cucherat, Michel; Bugnard, Françoise
2002-02-01
Despite the available evidence from randomized clinical trials, beta-blockers are often not used optimally in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). This meta-analysis aims at providing a precise and quantitative estimate of the benefit and risks of long-term bisoprolol on major clinical events in patients with CHF, both overall and in selected subgroups. This may help clinicians in their decisions as to whether to prescribe bisoprolol for their individual patients. Meta-analysis was performed of results from the 2 randomized, controlled clinical studies in which bisoprolol was compared with placebo (Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study [CIBIS and CIBIS II]), which included 3288 patients with proven CHF. The main outcomes were total death, cardiovascular death, sudden death, hospitalization for heart failure, and myocardial infarction. A highly significant 29.3% relative reduction of death (17%, 40%; P =.00003) was observed, as well as significant risk reduction in cardiovascular death and sudden death in favor of bisoprolol. Also, a highly significant relative reduction of 18.4% (25%, 11%; P =.00001) in hospital admission or death was observed. A similar relative reduction of death was consistently observed in selected subgroups of patients. Bisoprolol prevents major cardiovascular events in patients with CHF with a high benefit-to-risk ratio and can be recommended for these patients.
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Mellor, Jennifer; Daly, Michael; Smith, Molly
2017-08-01
To incentivize hospitals to provide better quality care at a lower cost, the Affordable Care Act of 2010 included the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), which reduces payments to hospitals with excess 30-day readmissions for Medicare patients treated for certain conditions. We use triple difference estimation to identify the HRRP's effects in Virginia hospitals; this method estimates the difference in changes in readmission over time between patients targeted by the policy and a comparison group of patients and then compares those difference-in-differences estimates in patients treated at hospitals with readmission rates above the national average (i.e., those at risk for penalties) and patients treated at hospitals with readmission rates below or equal to the national average (those not at risk). We find that the HRRP significantly reduced readmission for Medicare patients treated for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We find no evidence that hospitals delay readmissions, treat patients with greater intensity, or alter discharge status in response to the HRRP, nor do we find changes in the age, race/ethnicity, health status, and socioeconomic status of patients admitted for AMI. Future research on the specific mechanisms behind reduced AMI readmissions should focus on actions by healthcare providers once the patient has left the hospital. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Comparative risk analysis of dioxins in fish and fine particles from heavy-duty vehicles.
Leino, Olli; Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T
2008-02-01
Dioxins and airborne fine particles are both environmental health problems that have been the subject of active public debate. Knowledge on fine particles has increased substantially during the last 10 years, and even the current, lowered levels in the Europe and in the United States appear to be a major public health problem. On the other hand, dioxins are ubiquitous persistent contaminants, some being carcinogens at high doses, and therefore of great concern. Our aim was to (a) quantitatively analyze the two pollutant health risks and (b) study the changes in risk in view of the current and forthcoming EU legislations on pollutants. We performed a comparative risk assessment for both pollutants in the Helsinki metropolitan area (Finland) and estimated the health effects with several scenarios. For primary fine particles: a comparison between the present emission situation for heavy-duty vehicles and the new fine particle emission standards set by the EU. For dioxins: an EU directive that regulates commercial fishing of Baltic salmon and herring that exceed the dioxin concentration limit set for fish meat, and a derogation (= exemption) from the directive for these two species. Both of these two decisions are very topical issues and this study estimates the expected changes in health effects due to these regulations. It was found that the estimated fine particle risk clearly outweighed the estimated dioxin risk. A substantial improvement to public health could be achieved by initiating reductions in emission standards; about 30 avoided premature deaths annually in the study area. In addition, the benefits of fish consumption due to omega-3 exposure were notably higher than the potential dioxin cancer risk. Both regulations were instigated as ways of promoting public health.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah
2015-04-01
Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.
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Gyedu, A; Stewart, B T; Nakua, E; Quansah, R; Donkor, P; Mock, C; Hardy, M; Yangni-Angate, K H
2016-01-01
This study aimed to describe national peripheral vascular disease (PVD) risk and health burden, and vascular care capacity in Ghana. The gap between PVD burden and vascular care capacity in low- and middle-income countries was defined, and capacity improvement priorities were identified. Data to estimate PVD risk factor burden were obtained from the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE), Ghana, and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) database. In addition, a novel nationwide assessment of vascular care capacity was performed, with 20 vascular care items assessed at 40 hospitals in Ghana. Factors contributing to specific item deficiency were described. From the SAGE database, there were 4305 respondents aged at least 50 years with data to estimate PVD risk. Of these, 57·4 per cent were at moderate to risk high of PVD with at least three risk factors; extrapolating nationally, the estimate was 1 654 557 people. Based on IHME GBD data, the estimated disability-adjusted life-years incurred from PVD increased fivefold from 1990 to 2010 (from 6·3 to 31·7 per 100 000 persons respectively). Vascular care capacity assessment demonstrated marked deficiencies in items for diagnosis, and in perioperative and vascular surgical care. Deficiencies were most often due to absence of equipment, lack of training and technology breakage. Risk factor reduction and management as well as optimization of current resources are paramount to avoid the large burden of PVD falling on healthcare systems in low- and middle-income countries. These countries are not well equipped to handle vascular surgical care, and rapid development of such capacity would be difficult and expensive. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Bondarenko, M V
2004-08-01
The cardiovascular and respiratory disturbances are the main risk factor in acute and chronic surgical deseases of the abdominal cavity organs, including oncological. It is limits the possibility and volume of the diagnostics and surgical tactics choice. The complicated current of main disease is a risk factor of operation perform and the reason of the undertaking inadequate and palliative intervention, which significant reduce of the quality of life. Real by risk level reductions in surgery is a determination of tissues viability, estimation of compensatory reserve sick evidences for determination for operation performance including simultaneous and staged.
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Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Abramovitz, Daniela; Lozada, Remedios; Martinez, Gustavo; Rangel, Maria Gudelia; Vera, Alicia; Staines, Hugo; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Patterson, Thomas L.
2013-01-01
Background We evaluated brief combination interventions to simultaneously reduce sexual and injection risks among female sex workers who inject drugs (FSW-IDUs) in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico during 2008–2010, when harm reduction coverage was expanding rapidly in Tijuana, but less so in Juarez. Methods FSW-IDUs ≥18 years reporting sharing injection equipment and unprotected sex with clients within the last month participated in a randomized factorial trial comparing four brief, single-session conditions combining either an interactive or didactic version of a sexual risk intervention to promote safer sex in the context of drug use, and an injection risk intervention to reduce sharing of needles/injection paraphernalia. Women underwent quarterly interviews and testing for HIV, syphilis, gonorrhea, Chlamydia and Trichomonas, blinding interviewers and assessors to assignment. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation and repeated measures ordinal logistic regression examined effects on combined HIV/STI incidence and receptive needle sharing frequency. Findings Of 584 initially HIV-negative FSW-IDUs, retention was ≥90%. After 12 months, HIV/STI incidence decreased >50% in the interactive vs. didactic sex intervention (Tijuana:AdjRR:0.38,95% CI:0.16–0.89; Juarez: AdjRR:0.44,95% CI:0.19–0.99). In Juarez, women receiving interactive vs. didactic injection risk interventions decreased receptive needle-sharing by 85% vs. 71%, respectively (p = 0.04); in Tijuana, receptive needle sharing declined by 95%, but was similar in active versus didactic groups. Tijuana women reported significant increases in access to syringes and condoms, but Juarez women did not. Interpretation After 12 months in both cities, the interactive sexual risk intervention significantly reduced HIV/STI incidence. Expanding free access to sterile syringes coupled with brief, didactic education on safer injection was necessary and sufficient for achieving robust, sustained injection risk reductions in Tijuana. In the absence of expanding syringe access in Juarez, the injection risk intervention achieved significant, albeit more modest reductions, suggesting that community-level interventions incorporating harm reduction are more powerful than individual-level interventions. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT00840658 PMID:23785451
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Rudan, Igor; O’Brien, Katherine L.; Nair, Harish; Liu, Li; Theodoratou, Evropi; Qazi, Shamim; Lukšić, Ivana; Fischer Walker, Christa L.; Black, Robert E.; Campbell, Harry
2013-01-01
Background The recent series of reviews conducted within the Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) addressed epidemiology of the two deadly diseases at the global and regional level; it also estimated the effectiveness of interventions, barriers to achieving high coverage and the main implications for health policy. The aim of this paper is to provide the estimates of childhood pneumonia at the country level. This should allow national policy–makers and stakeholders to implement proposed policies in the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF member countries. Methods We conducted a series of systematic reviews to update previous estimates of the global, regional and national burden of childhood pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, risk factors and specific contributions of the most common pathogens: Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (flu). We distributed the global and regional–level estimates of the number of cases, severe cases and deaths from childhood pneumonia in 2010–2011 by specific countries using an epidemiological model. The model was based on the prevalence of the five main risk factors for childhood pneumonia within countries (malnutrition, low birth weight, non–exclusive breastfeeding in the first four months, solid fuel use and crowding) and risk effect sizes estimated using meta–analysis. Findings The incidence of community–acquired childhood pneumonia in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC) in the year 2010, using World Health Organization's definition, was about 0.22 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.11–0.51) episodes per child–year (e/cy), with 11.5% (IQR 8.0–33.0%) of cases progressing to severe episodes. This is a reduction of nearly 25% over the past decade, which is consistent with observed reductions in the prevalence of risk factors for pneumonia throughout LMIC. At the level of pneumonia incidence, RSV is the most common pathogen, present in about 29% of all episodes, followed by influenza (17%). The contribution of different pathogens varies by pneumonia severity strata, with viral etiologies becoming relatively less important and most deaths in 2010 caused by the main bacterial agents – SP (33%) and Hib (16%), accounting for vaccine use against these two pathogens. Conclusions In comparison to 2000, the primary epidemiological evidence contributing to the models of childhood pneumonia burden has improved only slightly; all estimates have wide uncertainty bounds. Still, there is evidence of a decreasing trend for all measures of the burden over the period 2000–2010. The estimates of pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity, mortality and etiology, although each derived from different and independent data, are internally consistent – lending credibility to the new set of estimates. Pneumonia continues to be the leading cause of both morbidity and mortality for young children beyond the neonatal period and requires ongoing strategies and progress to reduce the burden further. PMID:23826505
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Rudan, Igor; O'Brien, Katherine L; Nair, Harish; Liu, Li; Theodoratou, Evropi; Qazi, Shamim; Lukšić, Ivana; Fischer Walker, Christa L; Black, Robert E; Campbell, Harry
2013-06-01
The recent series of reviews conducted within the Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) addressed epidemiology of the two deadly diseases at the global and regional level; it also estimated the effectiveness of interventions, barriers to achieving high coverage and the main implications for health policy. The aim of this paper is to provide the estimates of childhood pneumonia at the country level. This should allow national policy-makers and stakeholders to implement proposed policies in the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF member countries. WE CONDUCTED A SERIES OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS TO UPDATE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OF THE GLOBAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL BURDEN OF CHILDHOOD PNEUMONIA INCIDENCE, SEVERE MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, RISK FACTORS AND SPECIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE MOST COMMON PATHOGENS: Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (flu). We distributed the global and regional-level estimates of the number of cases, severe cases and deaths from childhood pneumonia in 2010-2011 by specific countries using an epidemiological model. The model was based on the prevalence of the five main risk factors for childhood pneumonia within countries (malnutrition, low birth weight, non-exclusive breastfeeding in the first four months, solid fuel use and crowding) and risk effect sizes estimated using meta-analysis. The incidence of community-acquired childhood pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in the year 2010, using World Health Organization's definition, was about 0.22 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.11-0.51) episodes per child-year (e/cy), with 11.5% (IQR 8.0-33.0%) of cases progressing to severe episodes. This is a reduction of nearly 25% over the past decade, which is consistent with observed reductions in the prevalence of risk factors for pneumonia throughout LMIC. At the level of pneumonia incidence, RSV is the most common pathogen, present in about 29% of all episodes, followed by influenza (17%). The contribution of different pathogens varies by pneumonia severity strata, with viral etiologies becoming relatively less important and most deaths in 2010 caused by the main bacterial agents - SP (33%) and Hib (16%), accounting for vaccine use against these two pathogens. In comparison to 2000, the primary epidemiological evidence contributing to the models of childhood pneumonia burden has improved only slightly; all estimates have wide uncertainty bounds. Still, there is evidence of a decreasing trend for all measures of the burden over the period 2000-2010. The estimates of pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity, mortality and etiology, although each derived from different and independent data, are internally consistent - lending credibility to the new set of estimates. Pneumonia continues to be the leading cause of both morbidity and mortality for young children beyond the neonatal period and requires ongoing strategies and progress to reduce the burden further.
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Ding, Hongliu; Fu, Tong-Jen
2016-01-01
Sprouts have been a recurring public health challenge due to microbiological contamination, and Salmonella has been the major cause of sprout-associated outbreaks. Although seed treatment and microbiological testing have been applied as risk reduction measures during sprout production, the extent to which their effectiveness in reducing the public health risks associated with sprouts has not been well investigated. We conducted a quantitative risk assessment to measure the risk posed by Salmonella contamination in sprouts and to determine whether and how mitigation strategies can achieve a satisfactory risk reduction based on the assumption that the risk reduction achieved by a microbiological sampling and testing program at a given sensitivity is equivalent to that achieved by direct inactivation of pathogens. Our results indicated that if the sprouts were produced without any risk interventions, the health impact caused by sprouts contaminated with Salmonella would be very high, with a median annual estimated loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 691,412. Seed treatment (with 20,000 ppm of calcium hypochlorite) or microbiological sampling and testing of spent irrigation water (SIW) alone could reduce the median annual impact to 734 or 4,856 DALYs, respectively. Combining seed treatment with testing of the SIW would further decrease the risk to 58 DALYs. This number could be dramatically lowered to 3.99 DALYs if sprouts were produced under conditions that included treating seeds with 20,000 ppm of calcium hypochlorite plus microbiological testing of seeds, SIW, and finished products. Our analysis shows that the public health impact due to Salmonella contamination in sprouts could be controlled if seeds are treated to reduce pathogens and microbiological sampling and testing is implemented. Future advances in intervention strategies would be important to improve sprout safety further.
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The relationship between work ability and oxidative stress in Japanese workers.
Ohta, Masanori; Kumashiro, Masaharu; Eguchi, Yasumasa; Morita, Yusaku; Konno, Yoshimasa; Yamato, Hiroshi
2014-01-01
Work ability is based on the balance between personal resources and work demand. This study focused on the personal resources component of work ability. The aims of this study were to elucidate the association between work ability and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, particularly oxidative stress, and to estimate the effect of a community-implemented lifestyle modification programme on work ability and CV risk factors. Urinary 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (PGF2α), a biomarker of oxidative stress, was negatively correlated with psychological resources, as measured by the Work Ability Index (WAI). Overall WAI score was unchanged following the programme, while CV risk factors and antioxidative activity improved. A reduction in PGF2α levels was correlated with an improvement in subjective work ability relative to job demands, as assessed by a WAI item. Taken together, the results suggest that lifestyle modification programmes enhance the personal resources component of work ability and are associated with a reduction in oxidative stress.
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Arthur, Rhonda; Kirsh, Victoria A; Kreiger, Nancy; Rohan, Thomas
2018-06-01
Several modifiable risk factors have been associated with risk of female cancers, but there is limited data regarding their combined effect on risk among Canadian women. Therefore, we assessed the joint association of modifiable risk factors, using a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score, with risk of specific reproductive cancers. This study included a subcohort of 3,185 of the 39,618 women, who participated in the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle, and Health, and in whom 410, 177, and 100 postmenopausal breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers, respectively, were ascertained. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards regression models modified for the case-cohort design. Each unit increase in the HLI score was associated with 3% and 5% reductions in risk of postmenopausal breast cancer and endometrial cancer, respectively (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.94-0.99 and HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90-0.99, respectively). Compared to those with HLI score in the lowest category, those in the highest category had 30% and 46% reductions in risk of these cancers, respectively. The HLI score was not associated with altered risk of ovarian cancer. Our findings suggest that promoting a healthy lifestyle may aid in the primary prevention of postmenopausal breast and endometrial cancers.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Licata, Angelo
2015-01-01
Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.
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Willingness-to-accept reductions in HIV risks: conditional economic incentives in Mexico.
Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Infante, César; Gertler, Paul J; Bertozzi, Stefano M
2014-01-01
The objective of this study was to measure willingness-to-accept (WTA) reductions in risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) using conditional economic incentives (CEI) among men who have sex with men (MSM), including male sex workers (MSW) in Mexico City. A survey experiment was conducted with 1,745 MSM and MSW (18-25 years of age) who received incentive offers to decide first whether to accept monthly prevention talks and STI testing; and then a second set of offers to accept to stay free of STIs (verified by quarterly biological testing). The survey used random-starting-point and iterative offers. WTA was estimated with a maximum likelihood double-bounded dichotomous choice model. The average acceptance probabilities were: 73.9 % for the monthly model, and 80.4 % for the quarterly model. The incentive-elasticity of participation in the monthly model was 0.222, and 0.515 in the quarterly model. For a combination program with monthly prevention talks, and staying free of curable STI, the implied WTA was USD$ 288 per person per year, but it was lower for MSW: USD$ 156 per person per year. Thus, some of the populations at highest risk of HIV infection (MSM and MSW) seem well disposed to participate in a CEI program for HIV and STI prevention in Mexico. The average WTA estimate is within the range of feasible allocations for prevention in the local context. Given the potential impact, Mexico, a leader in conditional cash transfers for human development and poverty reduction, could extend that successful model to targeted HIV/STI prevention.
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Barton, Pelham; Andronis, Lazaros; Briggs, Andrew; McPherson, Klim; Capewell, Simon
2011-07-28
To estimate the potential cost effectiveness of a population-wide risk factor reduction programme aimed at preventing cardiovascular disease. Economic modelling analysis. England and Wales. Population Entire population. Model Spreadsheet model to quantify the reduction in cardiovascular disease over a decade, assuming the benefits apply consistently for men and women across age and risk groups. Cardiovascular events avoided, quality adjusted life years gained, and savings in healthcare costs for a given effectiveness; estimates of how much it would be worth spending to achieve a specific outcome. A programme across the entire population of England and Wales (about 50 million people) that reduced cardiovascular events by just 1% would result in savings to the health service worth at least £30m (€34m; $48m) a year compared with no additional intervention. Reducing mean cholesterol concentrations or blood pressure levels in the population by 5% (as already achieved by similar interventions in some other countries) would result in annual savings worth at least £80m to £100m. Legislation or other measures to reduce dietary salt intake by 3 g/day (current mean intake approximately 8.5 g/day) would prevent approximately 30,000 cardiovascular events, with savings worth at least £40m a year. Legislation to reduce intake of industrial trans fatty acid by approximately 0.5% of total energy content might gain around 570,000 life years and generate NHS savings worth at least £230m a year. Any intervention that achieved even a modest population-wide reduction in any major cardiovascular risk factor would produce a net cost saving to the NHS, as well as improving health. Given the conservative assumptions used in this model, the true benefits would probably be greater.
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Willingness-to-accept reductions in HIV risks: conditional economic incentives in Mexico
Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Infante, César; Gertler, Paul J.; Bertozzi, Stefano M.
2014-01-01
The objective of this study was to measure willingness-to-accept (WTA) reductions in risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) using conditional economic incentives (CEI) among men who have sex with men (MSM), including male sex workers (MSW) in Mexico City. A survey experiment was conducted with 1,745 MSM and MSW (18-25 years of age) who received incentive offers to decide first whether to accept monthly prevention talks and STI testing; and then a second set of offers to accept to stay free of STIs (verified by quarterly biological testing). The survey used random-starting-point and iterative offers. WTA was estimated with a maximum likelihood double-bounded dichotomous choice model. The average acceptance probabilities were: 73.9% for the monthly model, and 80.4% for the quarterly model. The incentive-elasticity of participation in the monthly model was 0.222, and it was 0.515 in the quarterly model. For a combination program with monthly prevention talks, and staying free of curable STI, the implied WTA was USD$288 per person per year, but it was lower for MSW: USD$156 per person per year. Thus, some of the populations at highest risk of HIV infection (MSM & MSW) seem well disposed to participate in a CEI program for HIV and STI prevention in Mexico. The average willingness-to-accept estimate is within the range of feasible allocations for prevention in the local context. Given the potential impact, Mexico, a leader in conditional cash transfers for human development and poverty reduction, could extend that successful model for targeted HIV/STI prevention. PMID:23377757
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van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E
2012-01-01
Despite years of declining smoking prevalence, tobacco use is still the leading preventable contributor to illness and death in the United States, and the effect of past tobacco-use control efforts has not fully translated into improvements in health outcomes. The objective of this study was to use a life course model with multiple competing causes of death to elucidate the ongoing benefits of tobacco-use control efforts on US death rates. We used a continuous-time life course simulation model for the US population. We modeled smoking initiation and cessation and 20 leading causes of death as competing risks over the life span, with the risk of death for each cause dependent on past and current smoking status. Risk parameters were estimated using data from the National Health Interview Survey that were linked to follow-up mortality data. Up to 14% (9% for men, 14% for women) of the total gain in life expectancy since 1960 was due to tobacco-use control efforts. Past efforts are expected to further increase life expectancy by 0.9 years for women and 1.3 years for men. Additional reduction in smoking prevalence may eventually yield an average 3.4-year increase in life expectancy in the United States. Coronary heart disease is expected to increase as a share of total deaths. A dynamic individual-level model with multiple causes of death supports assessment of the delayed benefits of improved tobacco-use control efforts. We show that past smoking reduction efforts will translate into further increases in life expectancy in the coming years. Smoking will remain a major contributor to preventable illness and death, worthy of continued interventions.
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Markovitz, Adam A; Ellimoottil, Chandy; Sukul, Devraj; Mullangi, Samyukta; Chen, Lena M; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Ryan, Andrew M
2017-12-01
To reduce variation in spending, Medicare has considered implementing a cardiac bundled payment program for acute myocardial infarction and coronary artery bypass graft. Because the proposed program does not account for patient risk factors when calculating hospital penalties or rewards ("reconciliation payments"), it might unfairly penalize certain hospitals. We estimated the impact of adjusting for patients' medical complexity and social risk on reconciliation payments for Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for the two conditions in the period 2011-13. Average spending per episode was $29,394. Accounting for medical complexity substantially narrowed the gap in reconciliation payments between hospitals with high medical severity (from a penalty of $1,809 to one of $820, or a net reduction of $989), safety-net hospitals (from a penalty of $217 to one of $87, a reduction of $130), and minority-serving hospitals (from a penalty of $70 to a reward of $56, an improvement of $126) and their counterparts. Accounting for social risk alone narrowed these gaps but had minimal incremental effects after medical complexity was accounted for. Risk adjustment may preserve incentives to care for patients with complex conditions under Medicare bundled payment programs.
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Successful heel pressure ulcer prevention program in a long-term care setting.
Lyman, Vicky
2009-01-01
Heel pressure ulcers (PUs) are common in long-term healthcare settings. Early identification of risk and the use of preventive measures are central to reducing the morbidity, mortality, and high medical costs associated with heel PUs. A Quality Improvement Process was initated based on a tailored protocol, in-service education program, and a heel protective device was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. The Braden Scale was used to evaluate PU risk in 550 patients in a long-term healthcare facility. Patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and with 1 of 7 high-risk comorbidities were considered at high risk for PUs, and this prompted a more aggressive prevention program that included a protocol for reducing the risk of heel ulceration. The number of hospital-acquired heel PUs during the 6-month preintervention period was 39. Following the intervention, there were 2 occurrences, representing a 95% reduction in heel ulcers between the 2 periods. After the cost of 2 heel protectors for 550 at-risk patients was subtracted from the estimated cost of treating the 37 heel ulcers prevented, the estimated cost savings was calculated to be between $12,400 and $1,048,400.
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HIV prevalence and sexual risk behaviour among non-injection drug users in Tijuana, Mexico.
Deiss, Robert G; Lozada, Remedios M; Burgos, Jose Luis; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Gallardo, Manuel; Cuevas, Jazmine; Garfein, Richard S
2012-01-01
Prior studies estimate HIV prevalence of 4% among injection drug users (IDUs), compared with 0.8% in the general population of Tijuana, Mexico. However, data on HIV prevalence and correlates among non-injecting drug users (NIDUs) are sparse. Individuals were recruited through street outreach for HIV testing and behavioural risk assessment interviews to estimate HIV prevalence and identify associated sexual risk behaviours among NIDUs in Tijuana. Descriptive statistics were used to characterise 'low-risk' NIDUs (drug users who were not commercial sex workers or men who have sex with men). Results showed that HIV prevalence was 3.7% among low-risk NIDUs. During the prior six months, 52% of NIDUs reported having >1 casual partner; 35% reported always using condoms with a casual partner; and 13% and 15%, respectively, reported giving or receiving something in exchange for sex. Women were significantly more likely than men to have unprotected sex with an IDU (p<0.01). The finding that HIV prevalence among NIDUs was similar to that of IDUs suggests that HIV transmission has occurred outside of traditional core groups in Tijuana. Broad interventions including HIV testing, condom promotion and sexual risk reduction should be offered to all drug users in Tijuana.
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Assessing risks and preventing disease from environmental chemicals.
Dunnette, D A
1989-01-01
In the last 25 years there has been considerable concern expressed about the extent to which chemical agents in the ambient and work environments are contributing to the causation of disease. This concern is a logical extension of our increased knowledge of the real and potential effects of environmental chemicals and the methodological difficulties in applying new knowledge that could help prevent environmentally induced disease. Chemical risk assessment offers an approach to estimating risks and involves consideration of relevant information including identification of chemical hazards, evaluation of the dose-response relationship, estimation of exposure and finally, risk characterization. Particularly significant uncertainties which are inherent in use of this and other risk models include animal-human and low dose-high dose extrapolation and estimation of exposure. Community public health risks from exposure to environmental chemicals appear to be small relative to other public health risks based on information related to cancer trends, dietary intake of synthetic chemicals, assessment data on substances such as DDT and "dioxin," public health effects of hazardous waste sites and contextual considerations. Because of inherent uncertainty in the chemical risk assessment process, however, we need to apply what methods are available in our efforts to prevent disease induced by environmental chemicals. There are a number of societal strategies which can contribute to overall reduction of risk from environmental chemicals. These include acquisition of information on environmental risk including toxicity, intensity and extensity of exposure, biological monitoring, disease surveillance, improvement in epidemiological methods, control of environmental chemical exposures, and dissemination of hazardous chemical information. Responsible environmental risk communication and information transfer appear to be among the most important of the available strategies for preventing disease induced by chemicals in the environment.
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DiDiodato, Giulio; McArthur, Leslie
2016-01-01
The incidence rate of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA-CDI) is estimated at 1 in 100 patients. Antibiotic exposure is the most consistently reported risk factor for HA-CDI. Strategies to reduce the risk of HA-CDI have focused on reducing antibiotic utilization. Prospective audit and feedback is a commonly used antimicrobial stewardship intervention (ASi). The impact of this ASi on risk of HA-CDI is equivocal. This study examines the effectiveness of a prospective audit and feedback ASi on reducing the risk of HA-CDI. Single-site, 339 bed community-hospital in Barrie, Ontario, Canada. Primary outcome is HA-CDI incidence rate. Daily prospective and audit ASi is the exposure variable. ASi implemented across 6 wards in a non-randomized, stepped wedge design. Criteria for ASi; any intravenous antibiotic use for ≥ 48 hrs, any oral fluoroquinolone or oral second generation cephalosporin use for ≥ 48 hrs, or any antimicrobial use for ≥ 5 days. HA-CDI cases and model covariates were aggregated by ward, year and month starting September 2008 and ending February 2016. Multi-level mixed effect negative binomial regression analysis was used to model the primary outcome, with intercept and slope coefficients for ward-level random effects estimated. Other covariates tested for inclusion in the final model were derived from previously published risk factors. Deviance residuals were used to assess the model's goodness-of-fit. The dataset included 486 observation periods, of which 350 were control periods and 136 were intervention periods. After accounting for all other model covariates, the estimated overall ASi incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.48 (95% 0.30, 0.79). The ASi effect was independent of antimicrobial utilization. The ASi did not seem to reduce the risk of Clostridium difficile infection on the surgery wards (IRR 0.87, 95% CI 0.45, 1.69) compared to the medicine wards (IRR 0.42, 95% CI 0.28, 0.63). The ward-level burden of Clostridium difficile as measured by the ward's previous month's total CDI cases (CDI Lag) and the ward's current month's community-associated CDI cases (CA-CDI) was significantly associated with an increased risk of HA-CDI, with the estimated CDI Lag IRR of 1.21 (95% 1.15, 1.28) and the estimated CA-CDI IRR of 1.10 (95% CI 1.01, 1.20). The ward-level random intercept and slope coefficients were not significant. The final model demonstrated good fit. In this study, a daily prospective audit and feedback ASi resulted in a significant reduction in the risk of HA-CDI on the medicine wards, however, this effect was independent of an overall reduction in antibiotic utilization. In addition, the ward-level burden of Clostridium difficile was shown to significantly increase the risk of HA-CDI, reinforcing the importance of the environment as a source of HA-CDI.
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COBALT: A GN&C Payload for Testing ALHAT Capabilities in Closed-Loop Terrestrial Rocket Flights
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carson, John M., III; Amzajerdian, Farzin; Hines, Glenn D.; O'Neal, Travis V.; Robertson, Edward A.; Seubert, Carl; Trawny, Nikolas
2016-01-01
The COBALT (CoOperative Blending of Autonomous Landing Technology) payload is being developed within NASA as a risk reduction activity to mature, integrate and test ALHAT (Autonomous precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology) systems targeted for infusion into near-term robotic and future human space flight missions. The initial COBALT payload instantiation is integrating the third-generation ALHAT Navigation Doppler Lidar (NDL) sensor, for ultra high-precision velocity plus range measurements, with the passive-optical Lander Vision System (LVS) that provides Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) global-position estimates. The COBALT payload will be integrated onboard a rocket-propulsive terrestrial testbed and will provide precise navigation estimates and guidance planning during two flight test campaigns in 2017 (one open-loop and closed- loop). The NDL is targeting performance capabilities desired for future Mars and Moon Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL). The LVS is already baselined for TRN on the Mars 2020 robotic lander mission. The COBALT platform will provide NASA with a new risk-reduction capability to test integrated EDL Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) components in closed-loop flight demonstrations prior to the actual mission EDL.
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2011-01-01
Background Hypertension in pregnancy stand alone or with proteinuria is one of the leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity in the world. Epidemiological and clinical studies have shown that an inverse relationship exists between calcium intake and development of hypertension in pregnancy though the effect varies based on baseline calcium intake and pre-existing risk factors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate preventive effect of calcium supplementation during pregnancy on gestational hypertensive disorders and related maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries. Methods A literature search was carried out on PubMed, Cochrane Library and WHO regional databases. Data were extracted into a standardized excel sheet. Identified studies were graded based on strengths and limitations of studies. All the included studies were from developing countries. Meta-analyses were generated where data were available from more than one study for an outcome. Primary outcomes were maternal mortality, eclampsia, pre-eclampsia, and severe preeclampsia. Neonatal outcomes like neonatal mortality, preterm birth, small for gestational age and low birth weight were also evaluated. We followed standardized guidelines of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) to generate estimates of effectiveness of calcium supplementation during pregnancy in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries, for inclusion in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Results Data from 10 randomized controlled trials were included in this review. Pooled analysis showed that calcium supplementation during pregnancy was associated with a significant reduction of 45% in risk of gestational hypertension [Relative risk (RR) 0.55; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.85] and 59% in the risk of pre-eclampsia [RR 0.41; 95 % CI 0.24-0.69] in developing countries. Calcium supplementation during pregnancy was also associated with a significant reduction in neonatal mortality [RR 0.70; 95 % CI 0.56-0.88] and risk of pre-term birth [RR 0.88, 95 % CI 0.78-0.99]. Recommendations for LiST for reduction in maternal mortality were based on risk reduction in gestational hypertensive related severe morbidity/mortality [RR 0.80; 95% CI 0.70-0.91] and that for neonatal mortality were based on risk reduction in all-cause neonatal mortality [RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.56-0.88]. Conclusion Calcium supplementation during pregnancy is associated with a reduction in risk of gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia neonatal mortality and pre-term birth in developing countries. PMID:21501435
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Passmore, Jonathon; Tu, Nguyen Thi Hong; Luong, Mai Anh; Chinh, Nguyen Duc; Nam, Nguyen Phuong
2010-04-01
To compare estimated prevalence of head injuries among road traffic injury patients admitted to hospitals, before and after the introduction of a mandatory helmet law in the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam. Before and after study of all road traffic injury patients with head injuries admitted to 20 provincial and central hospitals 3 months before and after the new law came into effect on 15 December 2007. Relative risk was computed and comparison made for the periods of 3 months before and after the new law. The study found a 16 percent reduction in the risk of road traffic head injuries (4683 to 3522; relative risk [RR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.87) and an 18 percent reduction in the risk of road traffic death (deaths in hospital plus injured patients discharged to die at home; 566 to 417; RR 0.82; 95% CI 0.73-0.93). Over the first 3 months of the comprehensive mandatory helmet legislation there has been a significant reduction in the risk of road traffic head injuries among patients admitted to 20 hospitals. The Viet Nam Government's decision to require all motorcycle riders and passengers to wear helmets is suspected of leading to positive road safety benefits and should be seen as a policy example for other low- and middle-income countries with a high utilization of motorcycles for transport.
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Risks from Radon: Reconciling Miner and Residential Epidemiology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chambers, Douglas B.; Harley, Naomi H.
2008-08-01
Everyone is exposed to radon, an inert radioactive gas that occurs naturally and is present everywhere in the atmosphere. The annual dose from radon and its (short-lived) decay products is typically about one-half of the dose received by members of the public from all natural sources of ionizing radiation. Data on exposures and consequent effects have recently been reviewed by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Studies of underground miners provides a well-established basis for estimating risks from occupational exposures to radon and for studying factors that may affect the dose response relationship such as the reduction of risk (coefficients) with increasing time since exposure. Miners' studies previously formed the basis for estimating risks to people exposed to radon at home, with downward extrapolation from exposures in mines to residential levels of radon. Presently, the risk estimates from residential studies are adequate to estimate radon risks in homes. Although there are major uncertainties in extrapolating the risks of exposure to radon from the miner studies to assessing risks in the home, there is remarkably good agreement between the average of risk factors derived from miner studies and those from pooled residential case-control studies. There are now over 20 analytical studies of residential radon and lung cancer. These studies typically assess the relative risk from exposure to radon based on estimates of residential exposure over a period of 25 to 30 years prior to diagnosis of lung cancer. Recent pooled analyses of residential case-control studies support a small but detectable lung cancer risk from residential exposure, and this risk increases with increasing concentrations. The excess relative risk of lung cancer from long-term residential exposure is about the same for both smokers and non-smokers; however, because the baseline lung cancer rate for smokers is much higher than for non or never smokers, smokers account for nearly 90% of the population risk from residential exposure to radon. As described in the paper, an excess relative risk (ERR) of 0.12(95% CI: 0.08-0.2)per 100 Bq m-3 (radon gas) can be estimated from combined miner studies. This compares well with the ERR from pooled residential case-control studies (for restricted analysis) for Europe of 0.16(95% CI: 0.05-0.31)[1] and for North America of 0.11(95% CI: 0.0-0.28)[2].
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Immediately modifiable risk factors attributable to colorectal cancer in Malaysia.
Naing, Cho; Lai, Pei Kuan; Mak, Joon Wah
2017-08-04
This study aimed to estimate potential reductions in case incidence of colorectal cancer attributable to the modifiable risk factors such as alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity amongst the Malaysian population. Gender specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for colorectal cancer in Malaysia were estimated for the three selected risk factors (physical inactivity, overweight, and alcohol consumptions). Exposure prevalence were sourced from a large-scale national representative survey. Risk estimates of the relationship between the exposure of interest and colorectal cancer were obtained from published meta-analyses. The overall PAF was then estimated, using the 2013 national cancer incidence data from the Malaysian Cancer Registry. Overall, the mean incidence rate for colorectal cancer in Malaysia from 2008 to 2013 was 21.3 per 100,000 population, with the mean age of 61.6 years (±12.7) and the majority were men (56.6%). Amongst 369 colorectal cancer cases in 2013, 40 cases (20 men, 20 women), 10 cases (9 men, 1 woman) or 20 cases (16 men,4 women) would be prevented, if they had done physical exercises, could reduce their body weight to normal level or avoided alcohol consumption, assuming that these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. It was estimated that 66 (17.8%;66/369) colorectal cancer cases (42 men, 24 women) who had all these three risk factors for the last 10 years would have been prevented, if they could control these three risk factors through effective preventive measures. Findings suggest that approximately 18% of colorectal cancer cases in Malaysia would be prevented through appropriate preventive measures such as doing regular physical exercises, reducing their body weight to normal level and avoiding alcohol consumption, if these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. Scaling-up nationwide public health campaigns tailored to increase physical activity, controlling body weight within normal limits and avoid alcohol intake are recommended. Future studies with other site-specific cancers and additional risk factors are needed.
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van den Ent, Maya M V X; Brown, David W; Hoekstra, Edward J; Christie, Athalia; Cochi, Stephen L
2011-07-01
The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) to reduce mortality in children aged <5 years by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015 has made substantial progress. We describe the contribution of measles mortality reduction efforts, including those spearheaded by the Measles Initiative (launched in 2001, the Measles Initiative is an international partnership committed to reducing measles deaths worldwide and is led by the American Red Cross, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UNICEF, the United Nations Foundation, and the World Health Organization). We used published data to assess the effect of measles mortality reduction on overall and disease-specific global mortality rates among children aged <5 years by reviewing the results from studies with the best estimates on causes of deaths in children aged 0-59 months. The estimated measles-related mortality among children aged <5 years worldwide decreased from 872,000 deaths in 1990 to 556,000 in 2001 (36% reduction) and to 118,000 in 2008 (86% reduction). All-cause mortality in this age group decreased from >12 million in 1990 to 10.6 million in 2001 (13% reduction) and to 8.8 million in 2008 (28% reduction). Measles accounted for about 7% of deaths in this age group in 1990 and 1% in 2008, equal to 23% of the global reduction in all-cause mortality in this age group from 1990 to 2008. Aggressive efforts to prevent measles have led to this remarkable reduction in measles deaths. The current funding gap and insufficient political commitment for measles control jeopardizes these achievements and presents a substantial risk to achieving MDG4. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.
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Johnson, Leigh F; Geffen, Nathan
2016-03-01
Different models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) can yield substantially different conclusions about STI epidemiology, and it is important to understand how and why models differ. Frequency-dependent models make the simplifying assumption that STI incidence is proportional to STI prevalence in the population, whereas network models calculate STI incidence more realistically by classifying individuals according to their partners' STI status. We assessed a deterministic frequency-dependent model approximation to a microsimulation network model of STIs in South Africa. Sexual behavior and demographic parameters were identical in the 2 models. Six STIs were simulated using each model: HIV, herpes, syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomoniasis. For all 6 STIs, the frequency-dependent model estimated a higher STI prevalence than the network model, with the difference between the 2 models being relatively large for the curable STIs. When the 2 models were fitted to the same STI prevalence data, the best-fitting parameters differed substantially between models, with the frequency-dependent model suggesting more immunity and lower transmission probabilities. The fitted frequency-dependent model estimated that the effects of a hypothetical elimination of concurrent partnerships and a reduction in commercial sex were both smaller than estimated by the fitted network model, whereas the latter model estimated a smaller impact of a reduction in unprotected sex in spousal relationships. The frequency-dependent assumption is problematic when modeling short-term STIs. Frequency-dependent models tend to underestimate the importance of high-risk groups in sustaining STI epidemics, while overestimating the importance of long-term partnerships and low-risk groups.
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Yu, Junhua; Shah, Bijal M; Ip, Eric J; Chan, James
2013-03-01
It has been demonstrated in previous studies that pharmacist management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the outpatient setting not only improves diabetes-related clinical outcomes such as hemoglobin A1c but also blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol (TC), and quality of life. Improved control of BP and TC has been shown to reduce the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which has placed a heavy economic burden on the health care system. However, no study has evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist intervention programs with respect to the long-term preventive effects on CVD outcomes among T2DM patients. To (a) quantify the long-term preventive effects of pharmacist intervention on CVD outcomes among T2DM patients using evidence from a matched cohort study in the outpatient primary care setting and (b) assess the relative cost-effectiveness of adding a clinical pharmacist to the primary care team for the management of patients with T2DM based on improvement in CVD risks with the aid of an economic model. Clinical data between the periods of June 2007 to February 2010 were collected from electronic medical records at 2 separate clinics at Kaiser Permanente (KP) Northern California, 1 with primary care physicians only (control group) and the other with the addition of a pharmacist (enhanced care group). Patients in the enhanced care group were matched 1:1 with patients in the control group according to baseline characteristics that included age, gender, A1c, and Charlson comorbidity score. The estimated 10-year CVD risk for both groups was calculated by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine (version 2) based on age, sex, race, smoking status, atrial fibrillation, duration of diabetes, levels of A1c, systolic BP (SBP) and TC, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) observed at 12 months. There was no statistical difference in the baseline clinical inputs to the Risk Engine (A1c [P=0.115], SBP [P=0.184], TC [P=0.055], and HDL-C [P=0.475]) between the 2 groups. A Markov model was developed to simulate the estimated CVD outcomes over 10 years and to estimate cost-effectiveness. The final outcomes examined included incremental cost and effectiveness measured by life years and per quality-adjusted life year gained. Both deterministic sensitivity analysis (SA) and probabilistic SA were conducted to examine the robustness of the results. The estimated risks for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke (both nonfatal and fatal) at the end of the follow-up were consistently lower in the enhanced care group compared with the control group, even though baseline risks in both groups were similar. The absolute risk reduction (ARR) between the enhanced care and control groups increased over time. For example, the ARR for nonfatal CHD risk in year 1 was 0.5% (1.2% vs. 0.7%), whereas the ARR increased to 5.5% in year 10 (14.8% vs. 9.3%). Similarly, the ARR between the enhanced care and the control groups was calculated as 0.3% for fatal CHD in year 1 and increased to 4.6% in year 10. Results from the Markov model suggest that the enhanced care group was shown to be a dominant strategy (less expensive and more effective) compared with the control group in the 10-year evaluation period in the base-case (average or mean results) scenario. Sensitivity analysis that took into account the uncertainty in all important variables, such as wage of pharmacists, utility weight (the degree of preference individuals have for a particular health state or condition), response rate to pharmacists' care, and uncertainty associated with the estimated 10 years of CVD risk, revealed that the relative value of enhanced care was robust to most of the variations in these parameters. Notably, the level of cost-effectiveness measured by net monetary value depends on the time horizon adopted by the payers and the magnitude of CVD risk reduction. The enhanced care group has a higher chance of being considered as a cost-effective strategy when a longer time horizon such as a minimum of 4 to 5 years is adopted. Adding pharmacists to the health care management team for diabetic patients improves the long-term CVD risks. The longer-term CVD risk reductions were shown to be more dramatic than the short-term reduction. A longer time horizon adopted by health plans in managing T2DM patients has a higher probability of making the intervention cost-effective.
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Association Between Swimming Lessons and Drowning in Childhood
Brenner, Ruth A.; Taneja, Gitanjali Saluja; Haynie, Denise L.; Trumble, Ann C.; Qian, Cong; Klinger, Ron M.; Klebanoff, Mark A.
2014-01-01
Objective To estimate the association between swimming lessons and the risk of drowning among children aged 1 to 19 years. Design Case-control study. Setting Cases were identified from medical examiners’/ coroners’ offices between mid-2003 and mid-2005. Jurisdictions included the states of Maryland and North Carolina, 14 districts (33 counties) in Florida, 3 counties in California, 1 county in Texas, and 1 county in New York. Participants Cases were children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years who died of unintentional drowning. Interviews were conducted with 88 families of children who drowned and 213 matched controls. Main Exposure Swimming lessons. Main Outcome Measure Death due to unintentional drowning. Drownings that were intentional, of undetermined intent, or that occurred under conditions in which swimming ability was unlikely to impact risk (eg, in ice water or bathtubs) were excluded. Results Of the 61 cases in the 1- to 4-year age group, 2 (3%) had participated in formal swimming lessons vs 35 of 134 matched controls (26%) (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01–0.97). Among the 27 cases aged 5 to 19 years, 7 (27%) had ever taken formal swimming lessons vs 42 of 79 matched controls (53%) (adjusted OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.09–1.51). In adjusted analyses, there was no statistically significant association between informal instruction and drowning risk. Conclusions Participation in formal swimming lessons was associated with an 88% reduction in the risk of drowning in the 1- to 4-year-old children, although our estimates were imprecise and 95% CIs included risk reductions ranging from 3% to 99%. PMID:19255386
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Estimating the Fiscal Effects of Public Pharmaceutical Expenditure Reduction in Greece
Souliotis, Kyriakos; Papageorgiou, Manto; Politi, Anastasia; Frangos, Nikolaos; Tountas, Yiannis
2015-01-01
The purpose of the present study is to estimate the impact of pharmaceutical spending reduction on public revenue, based on data from the national health accounts as well as on reports of Greece’s organizations. The methodology of the analysis is structured in two basic parts. The first part presents the urgency for rapid cutbacks on public pharmaceutical costs due to the financial crisis and provides a conceptual framework for the contribution of the Greek pharmaceutical branch to the country’s economy. In the second part, we perform a quantitative analysis for the estimation of multiplier effects of public pharmaceutical expenditure reduction on main revenue sources, such as taxes and social contributions. We also fit projection models with multipliers as regressands for the evaluation of the efficiency of the particular fiscal measure in the short run. According to the results, nearly half of the gains from the measure’s application is offset by financially equivalent decreases in the government’s revenue, i.e., losses in tax revenues and social security contributions alone, not considering any other direct or indirect costs. The findings of multipliers’ high value and increasing short-term trend imply the measure’s inefficiency henceforward and signal the risk of vicious circles that will provoke the economy’s deprivation of useful resources. PMID:26380249
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Estimating the Fiscal Effects of Public Pharmaceutical Expenditure Reduction in Greece.
Souliotis, Kyriakos; Papageorgiou, Manto; Politi, Anastasia; Frangos, Nikolaos; Tountas, Yiannis
2015-01-01
The purpose of the present study is to estimate the impact of pharmaceutical spending reduction on public revenue, based on data from the national health accounts as well as on reports of Greece's organizations. The methodology of the analysis is structured in two basic parts. The first part presents the urgency for rapid cutbacks on public pharmaceutical costs due to the financial crisis and provides a conceptual framework for the contribution of the Greek pharmaceutical branch to the country's economy. In the second part, we perform a quantitative analysis for the estimation of multiplier effects of public pharmaceutical expenditure reduction on main revenue sources, such as taxes and social contributions. We also fit projection models with multipliers as regressands for the evaluation of the efficiency of the particular fiscal measure in the short run. According to the results, nearly half of the gains from the measure's application is offset by financially equivalent decreases in the government's revenue, i.e., losses in tax revenues and social security contributions alone, not considering any other direct or indirect costs. The findings of multipliers' high value and increasing short-term trend imply the measure's inefficiency henceforward and signal the risk of vicious circles that will provoke the economy's deprivation of useful resources.
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Eaton Turner, Emily; Jenks, Michelle
2018-06-01
To estimate the cost-effectiveness of Nasal High Flow (NHF) in the intensive care unit (ICU) compared with standard oxygen or non-invasive ventilation (NIV) from a UK NHS perspective. Three cost-effectiveness models were developed to reflect scenarios of NHF use: first-line therapy (pre-intubation model); post-extubation in low-risk, and high-risk patients. All models used randomized control trial data on the incidence of intubation/re-intubation, events leading to intubation/re-intubation, mortality and complications. NHS reference costs were primarily used. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. When used as first-line therapy, Optiflow™ NHF gives an estimated cost-saving of £469 per patient compared with standard oxygen and £611 versus NIV. NHF cost-savings for high severity sub-group were £727 versus standard oxygen, and £1,011 versus NIV. For low-risk post-intubation patients, NHF generates estimated cost-saving of £156 versus standard oxygen. NHF decreases the number of re-intubations required in these scenarios. Results were robust in most sensitivity analyses. For high-risk post-intubation patients, NHF cost-savings were £104 versus NIV. NHF results in a non-significant increase in re-intubations required. However, reduction in respiratory failure offsets this. For patients in ICU who are at risk of intubation or re-intubation, NHF cannula is likely to be cost-saving.
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A global, open-source database of flood protection standards
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scussolini, Paolo; Aerts, Jeroen; Jongman, Brenden; Bouwer, Laurens; Winsemius, Hessel; de Moel, Hans; Ward, Philip
2016-04-01
Accurate flood risk estimation is pivotal in that it enables risk-informed policies in disaster risk reduction, as emphasized in the recent Sendai framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. To improve our understanding of flood risk, models are now capable to provide actionable risk information on the (sub)global scale. Still the accuracy of their results is greatly limited by the lack of information on standards of protection to flood that are actually in place; and researchers thus take large assumptions on the extent of protection. With our work we propose a first global, open-source database of FLOod PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, covering a range of spatial scales. FLOPROS is structured in three layers of information, and merges them into one consistent database: 1) the Design layer contains empirical information about the standard of protection presently in place; 2) the Policy layer contains intended protection standards from normative documents; 3) the Model layer uses a validated numerical approach to calculate protection standards for areas not covered in the other layers. The FLOPROS database can be used for more accurate risk assessment exercises across scales. As the database should be continually updated to reflect new interventions, we invite researchers and practitioners to contribute information. Further, we look for partners within the risk community to participate in additional strategies to implement the amount and accuracy of information contained in this first version of FLOPROS.
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Huncharek, Michael; Muscat, Joshua; Kupelnick, Bruce
2009-01-01
In vivo and in vitro studies suggest that dairy products, calcium, and dietary vitamin D inhibits the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate this relationship in observational studies. Data from 60 epidemiological studies enrolling 26,335 CRC cases were pooled using a general variance-based meta-analytic method. Summary relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the highest vs. the lowest intake categories. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of these summary effect measures and the statistical heterogeneity. The summary RR for high milk and dairy product intake, respectively, on colon cancer risk was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.67-0.92) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.75-0.95). Milk intake was unrelated to rectal cancer risk. High calcium intake had a greater protective effect against tumors of the distal colon and rectal cancer vs. proximal colon. The risk reduction associated with calcium was similar for dietary and supplemental sources. Vitamin D was associated with a nonsignificant 6% reduction in CRC risk. Higher consumption of milk/dairy products reduces the risk of colon cancer, and high calcium intake reduces the risk of CRC. Low vitamin D intake in the study populations may limit the ability to detect a protective effect if one exists.
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Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
Fenichel, Eli P; Kuminoff, Nicolai V; Chowell, Gerardo
2013-01-01
Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over "swine flu," as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.
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Approach for Assessing Direct Flood Damages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gaňová, Lenka; Zeleňáková, Martina; Słyś, Daniel; Purcz, Pavol
2014-11-01
This article presents a methodological approach to flood direct tangible damage - damage to assets and direct intangible damage - environmental damage and loss of life assessment. The assessment of flood risk is an essential part of the risk management approach, which is the conceptual basis for the EU directive 2007/60/ES on the assessment and management of flood risk. The purpose of this directive is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risk, aiming at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with flood in the community. Overall, an accurate estimation of negative effects on assets, environment and people is important in order to be able to determine the economy, environmental and social flood risk level in a system and the effects of risk mitigation measures.
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Golubnitschaja, Olga; Debald, Manuel; Yeghiazaryan, Kristina; Kuhn, Walther; Pešta, Martin; Costigliola, Vincenzo; Grech, Godfrey
2016-10-01
Rapidly increasing incidence of breast cancer is a new social challenge resulting from a spectrum of internal and external risk factors which appear to be well accepted as an attribute of the early twenty-first century, being, however, new for female sub-populations compared to the past. These include altered socio-economical conditions such as occupational exposure, rotating shift work, specific environmental factors (increased pollution and environmental toxicity, altered dietary habits, quality and composition of meal) as well as consequently shifted and/or adapted physiologic factors such as lower age at menarche, late age of first full-term pregnancy, if any, shorter periods of breastfeeding and later menopause. Consolidated expert statements suggest that over 50 % of all breast cancer cases may be potentially prevented by risk reduction strategy such as regulation of modifiable risk factors. Currently available risk assessment models may estimate potential breast cancer predisposition, in general; however, they are not able to predict the disease manifestation individually. Further, current deficits in risk assessment and effective breast cancer prevention have been recently investigated and summarised as follows: gaps in risk estimation, preventive therapy, lifestyle prevention, understanding of the biology of breast cancer risk and implementation of known preventive measures. This paper overviews the most relevant risk factors, provides recommendations for improved risk assessment and proposes an extended questionnaire for effective preventive measures.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo
2014-05-01
Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess thermal hazard and vulnerability in sensitive phenological stages. Cultivar-specific yield response functions to water availability were used to assess the reduction of yield for a determinate management option. Downscaled climate scenarios have been used to calculate indicators of soil water availability and thermal times and to evaluate the variability of crop phenology in combination with critical temperatures. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Management options were defined by combinations of irrigation strategies (optimal, rainfed and deficit) with use of alternate varieties. As regards hydrologic conditions, risk assessment has been done at landscape scale in all soil units within each study area. The mechanistic model SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate and irrigation. Different farm management options were evaluated. In a moderate water shortage scenario, deficit irrigation was an effective strategy to cope with climate change risks. In a severe water shortage scenario, the study showed the potentiality of intra-specific biodiversity to reduce risk of yield losses, although costs should be evaluated against the benefits of each specific management option. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)
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Adherence to cancer prevention guidelines and risk of breast cancer.
Catsburg, Chelsea; Miller, Anthony B; Rohan, Thomas E
2014-11-15
Healthy eating patterns and keeping physically active are potentially more important for chronic disease prevention than intake or exclusion of specific food items or nutrients. To this end, many health organizations routinely publish dietary and lifestyle recommendations aimed at preventing chronic disease. Using data from the Canadian National Breast Screening Study, we investigated the association between breast cancer risk and adherence to two sets of guidelines specific for cancer prevention, namely the American Cancer Society (ACS) Guidelines and the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) Recommendations. At baseline, 49,613 women completed dietary and lifestyle questionnaires and height and weight measurements were taken. During a mean follow-up of 16.6 years, 2,503 incident cases of breast cancer were ascertained. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of meeting each guideline, and number of guidelines met, with breast cancer risk. The two sets of guidelines yielded similar results. Specifically, adherence to all six ACS guidelines was associated with a 31% reduction in breast cancer risk when compared to subjects adhering to at most one guideline (HR=0.69; 95% CI=0.49-0.97); similarly, adherence to six or seven of the WCRF/AICR guidelines was also associated with a 31% reduction in breast cancer risk (HR=0.69; 95% CI=0.47-1.00). Under either classification, meeting each additional guideline was associated with a 4-6% reduction in breast cancer risk. These results suggest that adherence to cancer prevention guidelines is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer. © 2014 UICC.
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Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Larke, Natasha; B-Lajoie, Marie-Renee; Drouin, Olivier; Stover, John; Muhe, Lulu; Easterbrook, Philippa
2016-06-15
To understand regional burdens and inform delivery of health services, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on incidence of key opportunistic infections (OIs) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Eligible studies describing the cumulative incidence of OIs and proportion on ART from 1990 to November 2013 were identified using multiple databases. Summary incident risks for the ART-naive period, and during and after the first year of ART, were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Summary estimates from ART subgroups were compared using meta-regression. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted if ART was initiated at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL were estimated using Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) country estimates and global average OI treatment cost per case. We identified 7965 citations, and included 126 studies describing 491 608 HIV-infected persons. In ART-naive patients, summary risk was highest (>5%) for oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and bacterial pneumonia. The reduction in incidence was greatest for all OIs during the first 12 months of ART (range, 57%-91%) except for tuberculosis, and was largest for oral candidiasis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and toxoplasmosis. Earlier ART was estimated to have averted 857 828 cases in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI], 828 032-874 853), with cost savings of $46.7 million (95% CI, $43.8-$49.4 million). There was a major reduction in risk for most OIs with ART use in LMICs, with the greatest effect seen in the first year of treatment. ART has resulted in substantial cost savings from OIs averted. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
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Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Larke, Natasha; B-Lajoie, Marie-Renee; Drouin, Olivier; Stover, John; Muhe, Lulu; Easterbrook, Philippa
2016-01-01
Background. To understand regional burdens and inform delivery of health services, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on incidence of key opportunistic infections (OIs) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods. Eligible studies describing the cumulative incidence of OIs and proportion on ART from 1990 to November 2013 were identified using multiple databases. Summary incident risks for the ART-naive period, and during and after the first year of ART, were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Summary estimates from ART subgroups were compared using meta-regression. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted if ART was initiated at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL were estimated using Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) country estimates and global average OI treatment cost per case. Results. We identified 7965 citations, and included 126 studies describing 491 608 HIV-infected persons. In ART-naive patients, summary risk was highest (>5%) for oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and bacterial pneumonia. The reduction in incidence was greatest for all OIs during the first 12 months of ART (range, 57%–91%) except for tuberculosis, and was largest for oral candidiasis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and toxoplasmosis. Earlier ART was estimated to have averted 857 828 cases in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI], 828 032–874 853), with cost savings of $46.7 million (95% CI, $43.8–$49.4 million). Conclusions. There was a major reduction in risk for most OIs with ART use in LMICs, with the greatest effect seen in the first year of treatment. ART has resulted in substantial cost savings from OIs averted. PMID:26951573
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Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hartmann, M.; Schneider, U.
2014-03-01
Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.
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El-Tahawy, Abdelgawad S.; Bazh, Eman K.; Khalafalla, Reda E.
2017-01-01
Aim: This study focuses on the risk factors associated with the prevalence of Fasciola affecting cattle population in three provinces belonging to the Nile Delta of Egypt and to estimate the economic losses as a result of fascioliasis. Materials and Methods: From January 2015 to end of December 2015, records of 21 farms (4976 cattle) were analyzed to screen the prevalence of fascioliasis among cattle farms, to identify its associated risk factors and its economic impacts on Nile Delta region of Egypt. Results: The overall prevalence of fascioliasis in the Nile Delta region of Egypt was 9.77%. The prevalence of fascioliasis was found to be statistically significantly associated with age, sex, breed, and type of farms. The highest prevalence was observed in <2 age group (10.91%), and the lowest was >3 age groups (8.35%). In terms of body condition scores, cattle with medium and poor conditions were associated with fascioliasis more than those with good body condition. Besides, cattle raised in organic farms were associated with lower risk of fascioliasis than those in conventional farms. The prevalence of fascioliasis was noted more prominent in districts with moderate temperatures and with relative humidity (>60%). The annual overall costs for fascioliasis were estimated to be 221.2 USD/cow due to the significant reduction in body weight, reduction in milk production, and the treatment costs for fascioliasis. Conclusion: The results provided could be helpful for improving the control and preventive strategies. PMID:29184371
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Oberaigner, W; Geiger-Gritsch, Sabine; Edlinger, M; Daniaux, M; Knapp, R; Hubalek, M; Siebert, U; Marth, C; Buchberger, W
2017-06-01
We analysed all female breast cancer (BC) cases in Tyrol/Austria regarding the shift in cancer characteristics, especially the shift in advanced BC, for the group exposed to screening as compared to the group unexposed to screening. The analysis was based on all BC cases diagnosed in women aged 40-69 years, resident in Tyrol, and diagnosed between 2009 and 2013. The data were linked to the Tyrolean mammography screening programme database to classify BC cases as "exposed to screening" or "unexposed to screening". Age-adjusted relative risks (RR) were estimated by relating the exposed to the unexposed group. In a total of about 145,000 women aged 40-69 years living in Tyrol during the study period, 1475 invasive BC cases were registered. We estimated an age-adjusted relative risk (RR) for tumour size ≥ 21 mm of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60 to 0.86), for metastatic BC of 0.27 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.46) and for advanced BC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.96), each comparing those exposed to those unexposed to screening, respectively. In our population-based registry analysis we observed that participation in the mammography screening programme in Tyrol is associated with a 28% decrease in risk for BC cases with tumour size ≥ 21 mm and a 17% decrease in risk for advanced BC. We therefore expect the Tyrolean mammography programme to show a reduction in BC mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Kobza, Joanna; Pastuszka, Józef S; Gulis, Gabriel
2016-01-01
Policies can influence health of a population in various ways. Numerous epidemiological studies supported by toxicological investigations demonstrate a positive association between ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter and increased adverse cardio-respiratory events, including morbidity and mortality. The aim of this paper was to present the concept of the top-down health policy risk assessment approach model developed to estimate the expected health risk reduction associated with policy aiming at attaining the new particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter (PM10) standards in Poland. The top-down approach guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy to health outcomes. In this case study we tried to estimate the predicted health effects of the policy change over the past 20 years. Since Polish annual standard for PM10 changed from 50 μg/m³ in 1990 to 40 μg/m³ in 2010, we calculated the relative risk associated with decreasing PM10 in diameter to 10 μg/m3 in the annual level of PM10 for 6 adverse health effects. The relative risk slightly decreased for almost all adverse health effects, which means that the relative decrease in the incidence of health effects from the baseline incidence should range from about 0.5-0.6% for heart disease admissions to > 1% for respiratory admissions. The obtained results indicate that implementation of the new ambient air standards could influence improvement of the health status of Polish population. A top-down policy health risk assessment model can be one of the main tools in this process, providing harmonized guidance how to seek evidence-based information, which could serve policy-makers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.
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Lung cancer prevalence associated with radon exposure in Norwegian homes.
Hassfjell, Christina Søyland; Grimsrud, Tom Kristian; Standring, William J F; Tretli, Steinar
2017-08-22
Radioactive radon gas is generated from uranium and thorium in underlying rocks and seeps into buildings. The gas and its decay products emit carcinogenic radiation and are regarded as the second most important risk factor for lung cancer after active tobacco smoking. The average radon concentration in Norwegian homes is higher than in most other Western countries. From a health and cost perspective, it is important to be able to quantify the risk of lung cancer posed by radon exposure. We estimated the radon-related risk of lung cancer in Norway based on risk estimates from the largest pooled analysis of European case-control studies, combined with the hitherto largest set of data on radon concentration measurements in Norwegian homes. Based on these estimates, we calculate that radon is a contributory factor in 12 % of all cases of lung cancer annually, assuming an average radon concentration of 88 Bq/m3 in Norwegian homes. For 2015, this accounted for 373 cases of lung cancer, with an approximate 95 % confidence interval of 145 – 682. Radon most likely contributes to a considerable number of cases of lung cancer. Since most cases of radon-associated lung cancer involve smokers or former smokers, a reduction of the radon concentration in homes could be a key measure to reduce the risk, especially for persons who are unable to quit smoking. The uncertainty in the estimated number of radon-associated cases can be reduced through a new national radon mapping study with an improved design.
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A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change
Carlin, Alan
2011-01-01
Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say, insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method, and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation, one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses, as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO2 emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF) is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO2 emissions reductions on atmospheric CO2 appear to be short rather than long lasting.The costs of CO2 emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified.Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO2 emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs, change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success, and eliminate the possibility of low probability, high consequence risks of rising temperatures, but has been largely ignored by economists.CO2 emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used.The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it, including geoengineering. PMID:21695026
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
INDUSI,J.P.
2003-06-16
Since the events of 9/11, there have been considerable concerns and associated efforts to prevent or respond to acts of terrorism. Very often we hear calls to reduce the threat from or correct vulnerabilities to various terrorist acts. Others fall victim to anxiety over potential scenarios with the gravest of consequences involving hundreds of thousands of casualties. The problem is complicated by the fact that planners have limited, albeit in some cases significant, resources and less than perfect intelligence on potential terrorist plans. However, valuable resources must be used prudently to reduce the overall risk to the nation. A systematicmore » approach to this process of asset allocation is to reduce the overall risk and not just an individual element of risk such as vulnerabilities. Hence, we define risk as a function of three variables: the threat (the likelihood and scenario of the terrorist act), the vulnerability (the vulnerability of potential targets to the threat), and the consequences (health and safety, economic, etc.) resulting from a successful terrorist scenario. Both the vulnerability and consequences from a postulated adversary scenario can be reasonably well estimated. However, the threat likelihood and scenarios are much more difficult to estimate. A possible path forward is to develop scenarios for each potential target in question using experts from many disciplines. This should yield a finite but large number of target-scenario pairs. The vulnerabilities and consequences for each are estimated and then ranked relative to one another. The resulting relative risk ranking will have targets near the top of the ranking for which the threat is estimated to be more likely, the vulnerability greatest, and the consequences the most grave. In the absence of perfect intelligence, this may be the best we can do.« less
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Ashburner, Jeffrey M.; Go, Alan S.; Chang, Yuchiao; Fang, Margaret C.; Fredman, Lisa; Applebaum, Katie M.; Singer, Daniel E.
2016-01-01
Background/Objectives To date, studies examining the association between warfarin therapy and incidence of ischemic stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have not accounted for the competing risk of death. Competing risk analysis may provide greater understanding of the “real world” impact of anticoagulation on stroke risk over a multiyear time span. Design Cohort study Setting ATRIA Study community-based cohort Participants 13,559 adults with nonvalvular AF between 1996 and 2003. Measurements All events were clinician-adjudicated. We used extended Cox regression with longitudinal warfarin exposure to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) for thromboembolism (TE) and the competing risk event (all cause death). The Fine and Gray subdistribution regression approach was used to estimate this association while accounting for competing death events. As a secondary analysis, follow-up was limited to 1, 3, and 5-years. Results The rate of death was much higher in the non-warfarin group (8.1 deaths/100 person-years) compared to the warfarin group (5.5 deaths/100 person-years). The cause-specific HR indicated a large reduction in TE with warfarin use (adjusted HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.50–0.65). However, after accounting for competing death events, this association was substantially attenuated (adjusted HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.77–0.99). In analyses limited to 1-year of follow-up with fewer competing death events, the results for models that did and did not account for competing risks were similar. Conclusion Analyses accounting for competing death events may provide a more realistic estimate of the longer-term stroke prevention benefits of anticoagulants for patients with AF, particularly those who are not currently treated with anticoagulants. PMID:27861698
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Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy
2017-01-03
To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.
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Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin
2007-01-01
Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.
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Estimating the Economic Potential of Offshore Wind in the United States
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Beiter, P.; Musial, W.; Smith, A.
The potential for cost reduction and market deployment for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis estimates the future economic viability of offshore wind at more than 7,000 sites under a variety of electric sector and cost reduction scenarios. Identifying the economic potential of offshore wind at a high geospatial resolution can capture the significant variation in local offshore resource quality, costs, and revenue potential. In estimating economic potential, this article applies a method initially developed in Brown et al. (2015) to offshore wind and estimates the sensitivity of results under a variety of most likely electricmore » sector scenarios. For the purposes of this analysis, a theoretical framework is developed introducing a novel offshore resource classification system that is analogous to established resource classifications from the oil and gas sector. Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The results of this analysis are intended to inform the development of the U.S. Department of Energy's offshore wind strategy.« less
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Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands.
Nolan, Rachael H; Sinclair, Jennifer; Eldridge, David J; Ramp, Daniel
2018-02-15
Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.
2006-01-01
Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.
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Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.
2005-01-01
Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.
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Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.
2005-01-01
Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.
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Spatio-temporal distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Brazil.
Chammartin, Frédérique; Guimarães, Luiz H; Scholte, Ronaldo Gc; Bavia, Mara E; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope
2014-09-18
In Brazil, preventive chemotherapy targeting soil-transmitted helminthiasis is being scaled-up. Hence, spatially explicit estimates of infection risks providing information about the current situation are needed to guide interventions. Available high-resolution national model-based estimates either rely on analyses of data restricted to a given period of time, or on historical data collected over a longer period. While efforts have been made to take into account the spatial structure of the data in the modelling approach, little emphasis has been placed on the temporal dimension. We extracted georeferenced survey data on the prevalence of infection with soil-transmitted helminths (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichiura) in Brazil from the Global Neglected Tropical Diseases (GNTD) database. Selection of the most important predictors of infection risk was carried out using a Bayesian geostatistical approach and temporal models that address non-linearity and correlation of the explanatory variables. The spatial process was estimated through a predictive process approximation. Spatio-temporal models were built on the selected predictors with integrated nested Laplace approximation using stochastic partial differential equations. Our models revealed that, over the past 20 years, the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection has decreased in Brazil, mainly because of the reduction of A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections. From 2010 onwards, we estimate that the infection prevalences with A. lumbricoides, hookworm and T. trichiura are 3.6%, 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively. We also provide a map highlighting municipalities in need of preventive chemotherapy, based on a predicted soil-transmitted helminth infection risk in excess of 20%. The need for treatments in the school-aged population at the municipality level was estimated at 1.8 million doses of anthelminthic tablets per year. The analysis of the spatio-temporal aspect of the risk of infection with soil-transmitted helminths contributes to a better understanding of the evolution of risk over time. Risk estimates provide the soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programme in Brazil with useful benchmark information for prioritising and improving spatial and temporal targeting of interventions.
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2013-01-01
Background Recreational physical activity has been consistently associated with lower breast cancer risk, but there is a need to study the intensity and duration of activity that are critical to reduce the risk. The aim of this study was to examine the influence of moderate and vigorous intensity of recreational physical activity performed at different age periods on breast cancer risk. Material and methods The case-control study included 858 women with histological confirmation of invasive breast cancer and 1085 women free of any cancer diagnosis, residents of the region of Western Pomerania, aged 28–79 years. The frequency, duration and intensity of lifetime household, occupational and recreational physical activity, sociodemographic characteristics, reproductive factors, family history of breast cancer, current weight and height, and lifestyle habits were measured using a self-administered questionnaire. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were applied to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The risk estimates were controlled for potential risk factors and lifetime household and occupational activities. Results We found a risk reduction for recreational activity done early in life (age periods 14–20, 21–34, 35–50 years), particularly at ages 14–20 and 21–34 years, regardless of intensity. Active women engaging in more than 4.5 hours per week of moderate activity during ages 14–20 years had, on average, a 36% lower risk (OR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45–0.89) than women who were never or rarely active. For the women who reported 4.5 hours per week of vigorous activity during this period we found about 64% risk reduction (OR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.26–0.51). For the period after 50 years of age, recreational activity of moderate or vigorous intensity was not significantly associated with the risk. Conclusions Recreational physical activity of moderate or vigorous intensity done during adolescence, early and middle adulthood, particularly at ages 14–20 and 21–34 years, is associated with significantly decreased breast cancer risk. PMID:23788947
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Prevention of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy (CIN) in Interventional Radiology Practice
Gupta, Rajan K.; Bang, Tami J.
2010-01-01
Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a widely recognized and clinically significant problem in patients undergoing an increasing number of minimally invasive procedures that require contrast administration. Contrast-induced nephropathy is the third most common cause of hospital-acquired renal failure and has significant prognostic implications on patient outcomes. Interventional practitioners are faced with challenging decisions regarding prophylaxis and patient management. The major risk factor for developing CIN is preexisting renal dysfunction, particularly in association with diabetes. Patients are considered to be at risk when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or estimated creatinine clearance (eCCr) is less than 60. The cornerstone of prevention of CIN is appropriate risk stratification, intravenous hydration with normal saline or sodium bicarbonate, appropriate withholding of nephrotoxic medications, use of low or iso-osmolar contrast media, and various intraprocedural methods for iodinated contrast dose reduction. Although N-acetylcysteine administration is popular, it remains unproven. Practitioners must be familiar with prevention strategies and diagnosis of CIN to minimize its clinical impact. PMID:22550376
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Farchi, Sara; Lapucci, Enrica; Michelozzi, Paola
2015-01-01
the reduction in red meat consumption has been proposed as one of the climate change mitigation policies associated to health benefits. In the developed world, red meat consumption is above the recommended intake level. the aim is to evaluate health benefits, in term of mortality decline, associated to different bovine meat consumption reduction scenarios and the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. meat consumption in Italy has been estimated using the Italian National Food Consumption Survey INRAN-SCAI (2005-2006) and the Multipurpose survey on household (2012) of the Italian National Institute for Statistics. Colorectal cancer and stoke mortality data are derived from the national survey on causes of death in 2012. Bovine meat consumption risk function has been retrieved from systematic literature reviews. Mean meat consumption in Italy is equal to 770 grams/week; gender and geographical variations exist: 69 per cent of the adult population are habitual bovine meat consumers; males have an average intake of over 400 grams/week in all areas of Italy (with the exception of the South), while females have lower intakes (360 grams per week), with higher consumption in the North-West (427 gr) and lower in the South of Italy. Four scenarios of reduction of bovine meat consumption (20%, 40%, 50% e 70%, respectively) have been evaluated and the number of avoidable deaths by gender and area of residence have been estimated. GHG emissions attributed to bovine meat adult consumption have been estimated to be to 10 gigagrams CO2-eq. from low to high reduction scenario, the percentage of avoidable deaths ranged from 2.1% to 6.5% for colorectal cancer and from 1.6% to 5.6% for stroke. Health benefits were greatest for males and for people living in the North-Western regions of Italy. in Italy, in order to adhere to bovine meat consumption recommendations and to respect EU GHG emission reduction targets, scenarios between 50% and 70% need to be adopted.
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Roggeri, Daniela Paola; Roggeri, Alessandro
2017-01-01
Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with a reduced survival, an increased risk of hospitalization for recurrences, and a reduced health-related quality of life. The purpose of the present economic analysis was to evaluate the impact on the Italian National Health Service (INHS) expenditure of the treatment with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily (Tixteller ® /Tixtar ® ) for the reduction of the recurrences of overt HE, with respect to the current treatment approach. Costs associated with patients treated with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily were estimated considering the reduction in hospitalizations for HE recurrences revealed by registrative clinical trial (-50%) applied to the hospitalization rate (42.5%) emerging from an Italian observational real-world study; costs associated with patients not treated with rifaximin were estimated based on the hospitalization rate, resulting from the same Italian observational study. Sensitivity analyses considering possible different discount levels to INHS structures for rifaximin were performed. The INHS perspective for a period of 3 years was considered. The treatment with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily, although increasing drug costs, is associated with a reduction in hospitalizations for HE recurrences that leads to an overall reduction of total costs charged to INHS, which could be estimated, based on the forecasted uptake of the treatment, at about €130,000 in the first year, reaching ~€260,000 in the third year. Considering a possible discount for rifaximin 550 mg to INHS structure of 20%, the total saving at the third year accounts for ~€3,000,000. Moreover, a relevant reduction in the number of hospitalizations and bed days is associated with rifaximin treatment. The treatment with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily, even if associated with an increase in drug expenditure, results in a reduction in total health care costs charged to INHS due to a reduction in hospitalizations for HE recurrences.
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Modeling methylene chloride exposure-reduction options for home paint-stripper users.
Riley, D M; Small, M J; Fischhoff, B
2000-01-01
Home improvement is a popular activity, but one that can also involve exposure to hazardous substances. Paint stripping is of particular concern because of the high potential exposures to methylene chloride, a solvent that is a potential human carcinogen and neurotoxicant. This article presents a general methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of behavioral interventions for reducing these risks. It doubles as a model that assesses exposure patterns, incorporating user time-activity patterns and risk-mitigation strategies. The model draws upon recent innovations in indoor air-quality modeling to estimate exposure through inhalation and dermal pathways to paint-stripper users. It is designed to use data gathered from home paint-stripper users about room characteristics, amount of stripper used, time-activity patterns and exposure-reduction strategies (e.g., increased ventilation and modification in the timing of stripper application, scraping, and breaks). Results indicate that the effectiveness of behavioral interventions depends strongly on characteristics of the room (e.g., size, number and size of doors and windows, base air-exchange rates). The greatest simple reduction in exposure is achieved by using an exhaust fan in addition to opening windows and doors. These results can help identify the most important information for product labels and other risk-communication materials.
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Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip
2014-05-01
Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. To date, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions, and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins and that these correlations can, or should, be used in national to continental scale risk assessment. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that currently observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socioeconomic development. The results demonstrate that accounting for tail dependencies leads to higher estimates of extreme losses than estimates based on the traditional assumption of independence between basins. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.
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Mortality Risk Reductions from Substituting Screen Time by Discretionary Activities.
Wijndaele, Katrien; Sharp, Stephen J; Wareham, Nicholas J; Brage, Søren
2017-06-01
Leisure screen time, including TV viewing, is associated with increased mortality risk. We estimated the all-cause mortality risk reductions associated with substituting leisure screen time with different discretionary physical activity types, and the change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios. A total of 423,659 UK Biobank participants, without stroke, myocardial infarction, or cancer history, were followed for 7.6 (1.4) yr, median (interquartile range [IQR]). They reported leisure screen time (TV watching and home computer use) and leisure/home activities, categorized as daily life activities (walking for pleasure, light do-it-yourself [DIY], and heavy DIY) and structured exercise (strenuous sports and other exercises). Isotemporal substitution modeling in Cox regression provided hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality when substituting screen time (30 min·d) with different discretionary activity types of the same duration. Potential impact fractions estimated the proportional change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios. During 3,202,105 person-years of follow-up, 8928 participants died. Each 30-min·d difference in screen time was associated with lower mortality hazard when modeling substitution of screen time by an equal amount of daily life activities (0.95, 0.94-0.97), as well as structured exercise (0.87, 0.84-0.90). Reallocations from screen time into specific activity subtypes suggested different reductions in mortality hazard: walking for pleasure (0.95, 0.92-0.98), light DIY (0.97, 0.94-1.00), heavy DIY (0.93, 0.90-0.96), strenuous sports (0.87, 0.79-0.95), and other exercises (0.88, 0.84-0.91). The lowest hazard estimates were found when modeling replacement of TV viewing. Potential impact fractions ranged from 4.3% (30-min·d substitution of screen time into light DIY) to 14.9% (TV viewing into strenuous sports). Substantial public health benefits could be gained by replacing small amounts of screen time with daily life activities and structured exercise. Daily life activities may provide feasible screen time alternatives, if structured exercise is initially too ambitious.
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Mortality Risk Reductions from Substituting Screen-Time by Discretionary Activities
Wijndaele, Katrien; Sharp, Stephen J; Wareham, Nicholas J; Brage, Søren
2017-01-01
Purpose Leisure-screen-time, including TV viewing, is associated with increased mortality risk. We estimated the all-cause mortality risk reductions associated with substituting leisure-screen-time with different discretionary physical activity types, and the change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios. Methods 423,659 UK Biobank participants, without stroke, myocardial infarction or cancer history, were followed for 7.6 (1.4) (median (IQR)) years. They reported leisure-screen-time (TV watching and home computer use) and leisure/home activities, categorised as daily-life activities (walking for pleasure; light DIY; heavy DIY) and structured exercise (strenuous sports; other exercises). Iso-temporal substitution modelling in Cox regression provided hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality when substituting screen-time (30 minutes/day) with different discretionary activity types of the same duration. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) estimated the proportional change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios. Results During 3,202,105 person-years of follow-up, 8,928 participants died. Each 30 minute/day difference in screen-time was associated with lower mortality hazard when modelling substitution of screen-time by an equal amount of daily-life activities (0.95 (0.94-0.97)), as well as structured exercise (0.87 (0.84-0.90)). Re-allocations from screen-time into specific activity subtypes suggested different reductions in mortality hazard (walking for pleasure (0.95 (0.92-0.98)), light DIY (0.97 (0.94-1.00)), heavy DIY (0.93 (0.90-0.96)), strenuous sports (0.87 (0.79-0.95)), other exercises (0.88 (0.84-0.91))). The lowest hazard estimates were found when modelling replacement of TV viewing. PIFs ranged from 4.3% (30 minute/day substitution of screen-time into light DIY) to 14.9% (TV viewing into strenuous sports). Conclusion Substantial public health benefits could be gained by replacing small amounts of screen-time with daily-life activities and structured exercise. Daily-life activities may provide feasible screen-time alternatives, if structured exercise is initially too ambitious. PMID:28106621
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Predicting the effectiveness of the Finnish population-based colorectal cancer screening programme.
Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Malila, Nea; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Hakama, Matti
2017-12-01
Objective Because colorectal cancer (CRC) has a long natural history, estimating the effectiveness of CRC screening programmes requires long-term follow-up. As an alternative, we here demonstrate the use of a temporal multi-state natural history model to predict the effectiveness of CRC screening. Methods In the Finnish population-based biennial CRC screening programme using faecal occult blood tests (FOBT), which was conducted in a randomised health services study, we estimated the pre-clinical incidence, the mean sojourn time (MST), and the sensitivity of FOBT using a Markov model to analyse data from 2004 to 2007. These estimates were applied to predict, through simulation, the effects of five rounds of screening on the relative rate of reducing advanced CRC with 6 years of follow-up, and on the reduction in mortality with 10 years of follow-up, in a cohort of 500,000 subjects aged 60 to 69. Results For localised and non-localised CRC, respectively, the MST was 2.06 and 1.36 years and the sensitivity estimates were 65.12% and 73.70%. The predicted relative risk of non-localised CRC and death from CRC in the screened compared with the control population was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.98) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-1.02), respectively. Conclusion Based on the preliminary results of the Finnish CRC screening programme, our model predicted a 9% reduction in CRC mortality and a 14% reduction in advanced CRC.
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Blood pressure and cardiovascular risk: what about cocoa and chocolate?
Grassi, Davide; Desideri, Giovambattista; Ferri, Claudio
2010-09-01
Cocoa flavonoids are able to reduce cardiovascular risk by improving endothelial function and decreasing blood pressure (BP). Interest in the biological activities of cocoa is daily increasing. A recent meta-analysis shows flavanol-rich cocoa administration decreases mean systolic (-4.5mm Hg; p<0.001) and diastolic (-2.5mm Hg; p<0.001) BP. A 3-mm Hg systolic BP reduction has been estimated to decrease the risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. This paper summarizes new findings concerning cocoa effects on cardiovascular health focusing on putative mechanisms of action and nutritional and "pharmacological" viewpoints. Cocoa consumption could play a pivotal role in human health. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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The multiplier effect of the health education-risk reduction program in 28 states and 1 territory.
Kreuter, M W; Christensen, G M; Divincenzo, A
1982-01-01
The multiplier effect of the Health Education-Risk Reduction (HE-RR) Grants Program funded by the Public Health Service is examined to identify outcomes for the period 1978-81. Responses to a questionnaire from the directors of health education of 28 States and 1 Territory supplied the information concerning new health promotion activities generated by the program. The directors were asked to identify and give cost estimates of new activities that resulted from State-level and local intervention projects. A method for calculating the extent to which the HE-RR program influenced new health promotion activities that were funded by alternate sources was devised. The calculation, termed the new activity rate, was applied to the survey data. Rates calculated for the HE-RR program revealed that it generated nearly $4 million in new health promotion activities, most of them funded by the private and voluntary segments of society. PMID:7146300
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Ghasemian, Anoosheh; Rezaei, Nazila; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Mansouri, Anita; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Delavari, Alireza; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Sharifi, Farshad; Naderimagham, Shohreh
2015-08-01
Tobacco smoking and exposure to second-hand smoke in the indoor environment are major public health risks worldwide. The aim of this paper is to report and critique a global assessment of smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) extracted from GBD study 2010, by sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2010. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2010 estimated the distributions of exposure and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and analyzing published and unpublished data. These assessments were used, together with estimates of death and DALYs due to specific risk factors, to calculate the attributed burden for each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. Uncertainties in the distribution of exposure, relative risks, and relevant outcomes were incorporated into estimates of attributable mortality and burden. In this study, our aim was to reformulate the GBD data, produce new graphs, and explain the results for Iran in greater detail. Between 1990 and 2010, the prevalence of tobacco smoking at all ages increased by 1% in men and declined by 2% in women in Iran, but the overall prevalence in the general population was unchanged (12%). A reduction was observed in the age-standardized death and DALY rates (per 100,000 population) attributed to tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke. The attributed DALY rate was greater for Iranian men than for Iranian women. The highest rates of DALYs because of tobacco smoking were found in smoker men and women aged 70+, but exposure to second-hand smoke had the most significant burden in children under 5 years old. In 1990, the three leading disease burdens attributed to tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke, were ischemic heart disease; communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; and chronic respiratory diseases. In 2010, three leading burden of diseases attributed to tobacco smoking belonged to ischemic heart disease, chronic respiratory disease, and, and cerebrovascular disease, respectively. Despite a reduction in the rate of tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke, since 1990, smoking exposure remained the fifth leading risk factor for deaths and DALYs in Iran in 2010. Overall, our data clearly show the need for new efforts in Iran to reduce the mortality and burden attributed to tobacco smoking.
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Influence of model reduction on uncertainty of flood inundation predictions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Romanowicz, R. J.; Kiczko, A.; Osuch, M.
2012-04-01
Derivation of flood risk maps requires an estimation of the maximum inundation extent for a flood with an assumed probability of exceedence, e.g. a 100 or 500 year flood. The results of numerical simulations of flood wave propagation are used to overcome the lack of relevant observations. In practice, deterministic 1-D models are used for flow routing, giving a simplified image of a flood wave propagation process. The solution of a 1-D model depends on the simplifications to the model structure, the initial and boundary conditions and the estimates of model parameters which are usually identified using the inverse problem based on the available noisy observations. Therefore, there is a large uncertainty involved in the derivation of flood risk maps. In this study we examine the influence of model structure simplifications on estimates of flood extent for the urban river reach. As the study area we chose the Warsaw reach of the River Vistula, where nine bridges and several dikes are located. The aim of the study is to examine the influence of water structures on the derived model roughness parameters, with all the bridges and dikes taken into account, with a reduced number and without any water infrastructure. The results indicate that roughness parameter values of a 1-D HEC-RAS model can be adjusted for the reduction in model structure. However, the price we pay is the model robustness. Apart from a relatively simple question regarding reducing model structure, we also try to answer more fundamental questions regarding the relative importance of input, model structure simplification, parametric and rating curve uncertainty to the uncertainty of flood extent estimates. We apply pseudo-Bayesian methods of uncertainty estimation and Global Sensitivity Analysis as the main methodological tools. The results indicate that the uncertainties have a substantial influence on flood risk assessment. In the paper we present a simplified methodology allowing the influence of that uncertainty to be assessed. This work was supported by National Science Centre of Poland (grant 2011/01/B/ST10/06866).
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Kobayashi, Naohiro; Oshiki, Mamoru; Ito, Toshihiro; Segawa, Takahiro; Hatamoto, Masashi; Kato, Tsuyoshi; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Kubota, Kengo; Takahashi, Masanobu; Iguchi, Akinori; Tagawa, Tadashi; Okubo, Tsutomu; Uemura, Shigeki; Harada, Hideki; Motoyama, Toshiki; Araki, Nobuo; Sano, Daisuke
2017-03-01
A down-flow hanging sponge (DHS) reactor has been developed as a cost-effective wastewater treatment system that is adaptable to local conditions in low-income countries. A pilot-scale DHS reactor previously demonstrated stable reduction efficiencies for chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonium nitrogen over a year at ambient temperature, but the pathogen reduction efficiency of the DHS reactor has yet to be investigated. In the present study, the reduction efficiency of a pilot-scale DHS reactor fed with municipal wastewater was investigated for 10 types of human pathogenic viruses (norovirus GI, GII and GIV, aichivirus, astrovirus, enterovirus, hepatitis A and E viruses, rotavirus, and sapovirus). DHS influent and effluent were collected weekly or biweekly for 337 days, and concentrations of viral genomes were determined by microfluidic quantitative PCR. Aichivirus, norovirus GI and GII, enterovirus, and sapovirus were frequently detected in DHS influent, and the log 10 reduction (LR) of these viruses ranged from 1.5 to 3.7. The LR values for aichivirus and norovirus GII were also calculated using a Bayesian estimation model, and the average LR (±standard deviation) values for aichivirus and norovirus GII were estimated to be 1.4 (±1.5) and 1.8 (±2.5), respectively. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted to calculate a threshold reduction level for norovirus GII that would be required for the use of DHS effluent for agricultural irrigation, and it was found that LRs of 2.6 and 3.7 for norovirus GII in the DHS effluent were required in order to not exceed the tolerable burden of disease at 10 -4 and 10 -6 disability-adjusted life years loss per person per year, respectively, for 95% of the exposed population during wastewater reuse for irrigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Apondi, Rose; Bunnell, Rebecca; Ekwaru, John Paul; Moore, David; Bechange, Stevens; Khana, Kenneth; King, Rachel; Campbell, James; Tappero, Jordan; Mermin, Jonathan
2011-06-19
Long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on sexual HIV-transmission risk in Africa is unknown. We assessed sexual behavior changes and estimated HIV transmission from HIV-infected adults on ART in Uganda. Between 2003 and 2007, we enrolled and followed ART-naive HIV-infected adults in a home-based AIDS program with annual counseling and testing for cohabitating partners, participant transmission risk-reduction plans, condom distribution and prevention support for cohabitating discordant couples. We assessed participants' HIV plasma viral load and partner-specific sexual behaviors. We defined risky sex as intercourse with inconsistent/no condom use with HIV-negative or unknown serostatus partners in previous 3 months. We compared rates using Poisson regression models, estimated transmission risk using established viral load-specific transmission estimates, and documented sero-conversion rates among HIV-discordant couples. Of 928 participants, 755 (81%) had 36 months data: 94 (10%) died and 79 (9%) missing data. Sexual activity increased from 28% (baseline) to 41% [36 months (P < 0.001)]. Of sexually active participants, 22% reported risky sex at baseline, 8% at 6 months (P < 0.001), and 14% at 36 months (P = 0.018). Median viral load among those reporting risky sex was 122,500 [interquartile range (IQR) 45 100-353 000] copies/ml pre-ART at baseline and undetectable at follow-up. One sero-conversion occurred among 62 cohabitating sero-discordant partners (0.5 sero-conversions/100 person-years). At 36 months, consistent condom use was 74% with discordant partners, 55% with unknown and 46% with concordant partners. Estimated HIV transmission risk reduced 91%, from 47.3 to 4.2/1000 person-years. Despite increased sexual activity among HIV-infected Ugandans over 3 years on ART, risky sex and estimated risk of HIV transmission remained lower than baseline levels. Integrated prevention programs could reduce HIV transmission in Africa.
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Castelli, Joel; Simon, Antoine; Louvel, Guillaume; Henry, Olivier; Chajon, Enrique; Nassef, Mohamed; Haigron, Pascal; Cazoulat, Guillaume; Ospina, Juan David; Jegoux, Franck; Benezery, Karen; de Crevoisier, Renaud
2015-01-09
Large anatomical variations occur during the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC). The risks are therefore a parotid glands (PG) overdose and a xerostomia increase. The purposes of the study were to estimate: - the PG overdose and the xerostomia risk increase during a "standard" IMRT (IMRTstd); - the benefits of an adaptive IMRT (ART) with weekly replanning to spare the PGs and limit the risk of xerostomia. Fifteen patients received radical IMRT (70 Gy) for LAHNC. Weekly CTs were used to estimate the dose distributions delivered during the treatment, corresponding either to the initial planning (IMRTstd) or to weekly replanning (ART). PGs dose were recalculated at the fraction, from the weekly CTs. PG cumulated doses were then estimated using deformable image registration. The following PG doses were compared: pre-treatment planned dose, per-treatment IMRTstd and ART. The corresponding estimated risks of xerostomia were also compared. Correlations between anatomical markers and dose differences were searched. Compared to the initial planning, a PG overdose was observed during IMRTstd for 59% of the PGs, with an average increase of 3.7 Gy (10.0 Gy maximum) for the mean dose, and of 8.2% (23.9% maximum) for the risk of xerostomia. Compared to the initial planning, weekly replanning reduced the PG mean dose for all the patients (p<0.05). In the overirradiated PG group, weekly replanning reduced the mean dose by 5.1 Gy (12.2 Gy maximum) and the absolute risk of xerostomia by 11% (p<0.01) (30% maximum). The PG overdose and the dosimetric benefit of replanning increased with the tumor shrinkage and the neck thickness reduction (p<0.001). During the course of LAHNC IMRT, around 60% of the PGs are overdosed of 4 Gy. Weekly replanning decreased the PG mean dose by 5 Gy, and therefore by 11% the xerostomia risk.
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Shao, Kan; Small, Mitchell J
2011-10-01
A methodology is presented for assessing the information value of an additional dosage experiment in existing bioassay studies. The analysis demonstrates the potential reduction in the uncertainty of toxicity metrics derived from expanded studies, providing insights for future studies. Bayesian methods are used to fit alternative dose-response models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to compare and combine the alternative models. BMA predictions for benchmark dose (BMD) are developed, with uncertainty in these predictions used to derive the lower bound BMDL. The MCMC and BMA results provide a basis for a subsequent Monte Carlo analysis that backcasts the dosage where an additional test group would have been most beneficial in reducing the uncertainty in the BMD prediction, along with the magnitude of the expected uncertainty reduction. Uncertainty reductions are measured in terms of reduced interval widths of predicted BMD values and increases in BMDL values that occur as a result of this reduced uncertainty. The methodology is illustrated using two existing data sets for TCDD carcinogenicity, fitted with two alternative dose-response models (logistic and quantal-linear). The example shows that an additional dose at a relatively high value would have been most effective for reducing the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates, with predicted reductions in the widths of uncertainty intervals of approximately 30%, and expected increases in BMDL values of 5-10%. The results demonstrate that dose selection for studies that subsequently inform dose-response models can benefit from consideration of how these models will be fit, combined, and interpreted. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Mason, Helen; Shoaibi, Azza; Ghandour, Rula; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Khatib, Rana; Jabr, Samer; Unal, Belgin; Sözmen, Kaan; Arfa, Chokri; Aissi, Wafa; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Fouad, Fouad; Al-Ali, Radwan; Husseini, Abdullatif
2014-01-01
Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives.
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Mason, Helen; Shoaibi, Azza; Ghandour, Rula; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Khatib, Rana; Jabr, Samer; Unal, Belgin; Sözmen, Kaan; Arfa, Chokri; Aissi, Wafa; Romdhane, Habiba Ben; Fouad, Fouad; Al-Ali, Radwan; Husseini, Abdullatif
2014-01-01
Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. PMID:24409297
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Melnikow, Joy; Birch, Stephen; Slee, Christina; McCarthy, Theodore J; Helms, L Jay; Kuppermann, Miriam
2008-09-01
In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the effects of health-care interventions on multiple health dimensions typically require consideration of both quantity and quality of life. To explore the impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment using patient preferences (utilities) on the outcome of a CEA on use of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. A state transition Markov model tracked hypothetical cohorts of women who did or did not take 5 years of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. Incremental quality-adjusted effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for models including and excluding a utility adjustment for menopausal symptoms were compared with each other and to a global utility model. Two hundred fifty-five women aged 50 and over with estimated 5-year breast cancer risk >or=1.67% participated in utility assessment interviews. Standard gamble utilities were assessed for specified tamoxifen-related health outcomes, current health, and for a global assessment of possible outcomes of tamoxifen use. Inclusion of a utility for menopausal symptoms in the outcome-specific models substantially increased the ICER; at the threshold 5-year breast cancer risk of 1.67%, tamoxifen was dominated. When a global utility for tamoxifen was used in place of outcome-specific utilities, tamoxifen was dominated under all circumstances. CEAs may be profoundly affected by the types of outcomes considered for quality-of-life adjustment and how these outcomes are grouped for utility assessment. Comparisons of ICERs across analyses must consider effects of different approaches to using utilities for quality-of-life adjustment.
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The effect of routine early amniotomy on spontaneous labor: a meta-analysis.
Brisson-Carroll, G; Fraser, W; Bréart, G; Krauss, I; Thornton, J
1996-05-01
To obtain estimates of the effects of amniotomy on the risk of cesarean delivery and on other indicators of maternal and neonatal morbidity (Apgar score less than 7 at 5 minutes, admission to neonatal intensive care unit [NICU]). Published studies were identified through manual and computerized searches using Medline and the Cochrane Collaboration Pregnancy and Childbirth Database. Our search identified ten trials, all published in peer-reviewed journals. Trials were assigned a methodological quality score based on a standardized rating system. Three trials were excluded from the analysis for methodological limitations. Data were abstracted by two trained reviewers. Typical odds ratios (OR) were calculated. Amniotomy was associated with a reduction in labor duration varying from 0.8-2.3 hours. There was a nonstatistically significant increase in the risk of cesarean delivery; OR 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-1.6. The risk of a 5-minute Apgar score less than 7 was reduced in association with early amniotomy (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9). Groups were similar with respect to other indicators of neonatal status (arterial cord pH, NICU admissions). Routine early amniotomy is associated with both benefits and risks. Benefits include a reduction in labor duration and a possible reduction in abnormal 5-minute Apgar scores. This meta-analysis provides no support for the hypothesis that routine early amniotomy reduces the risk of cesarean delivery. An association between early amniotomy and cesarean delivery for fetal distress was noted in one large trial, suggesting that amniotomy should be reserved for patients with abnormal labor progress.
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How much reduction of virus is needed for recycled water: A continuous changing need for assessment?
Gerba, Charles P; Betancourt, Walter Q; Kitajima, Masaaki
2017-01-01
To ensure the safety of wastewater reuse for irrigation of food crops and drinking water pathogenic viruses must be reduced to levels that pose no significant risk. To achieve this goal minimum reduction of viruses by treatment trains have been suggested. For use of edible crops a 6-log reduction and for production of potable drinking water a 12-log reduction has been suggested. These reductions were based on assuming infective virus concentrations of 10 5 to 10 6 per liter. Recent application of molecular methods suggests that some pathogenic viruses may be occurring in concentrations of 10 7 to 10 9 per liter. Factors influencing these levels include the development of molecular methods for virus detection, emergence of newly recognized viruses, decrease in per capita water use due to conservation measures, and outbreaks. Since neither cell culture nor molecular methods can assess all the potentially infectious virus in wastewater conservative estimates should be used to assess the virus load in untreated wastewater. This review indicates that an additional 2- to 3-log reduction of viruses above current recommendations may be needed to ensure the safety of recycled water. Information is needed on peak loading of viruses. In addition, more virus groups need to be quantified using better methods of virus quantification, including more accurate methods for measuring viral infectivity in order to better quantify risks from viruses in recycled water. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0
Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko
2010-01-01
Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different
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Alcohol-related risk of driver fatalities: an update using 2007 data.
Voas, Robert B; Torres, Pedro; Romano, Eduardo; Lacey, John H
2012-05-01
The purpose of this study was to determine whether the relative risk of being involved in an alcohol-related crash has changed over the decade from 1996 to 2007, a period during which there has been little evidence of a reduction in the percentage of all fatal crashes involving alcohol. We compared blood-alcohol information for the 2006 and 2007 crash cases (N = 6,863, 22.8% of them women) drawn from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with control blood-alcohol data from participants in the 2007 U.S. National Roadside Survey (N = 6,823). Risk estimates were computed and compared with those previously obtained from the 1996 FARS and roadside survey data. Although the adult relative risk of being involved in a fatal alcohol-related crash apparently did not change from 1996 to 2007, the risk for involvement in an alcohol-related crash for underage women has increased to the point where it has become the same as that for underage men. Further, the risk that sober underage men will become involved in a fatal crash has doubled over the 1996-2007 period. Compared with estimates obtained from a decade earlier, young women in this study are at an increased risk of involvement in alcohol-related crashes. Similarly, underage sober drivers in this study are more at risk of involvement in a crash than they were a decade earlier.
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Garlic consumption and colorectal cancer risk in man: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Chiavarini, Manuela; Minelli, Liliana; Fabiani, Roberto
2016-02-01
Colorectal cancer shows large incidence variations worldwide that have been attributed to different dietary factors. We conducted a meta-analysis on the relationship between garlic consumption and colorectal cancer risk. We systematically reviewed publications obtained by searching ISI Web of Knowledge, MEDLINE and EMBASE literature databases. We extracted the risk estimate of the highest and the lowest reported categories of intake from each study and conducted meta-analysis using a random-effects model. The pooled analysis of all fourteen studies, seven cohort and seven case-control, indicated that garlic consumption was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR=0·93; 95 % CI 0·82, 1·06, P=0·281; I 2=83·6 %, P≤0·001). Separate analyses on the basis of cancer sites and sex also revealed no statistically significant effects on cancer risk. However, when separately analysed on the basis of study type, we found that garlic was associated with an approximately 37 % reduction in colorectal cancer risk in the case-control studies (combined risk estimate=0·63, 95 % CI 0·48, 0·82, P=0·001; I 2=75·6 %, P≤0·001). Our results suggest that consumption of garlic is not associated with a reduced colorectal cancer risk. Further investigations are necessary to clarify the discrepancy between results obtained from different types of epidemiological studies.
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The Cost-Effectiveness of Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Patients at Risk of Infective Endocarditis.
Franklin, Matthew; Wailoo, Allan; Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H
2016-11-15
In March 2008, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended stopping antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) for those at risk of infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing dental procedures in the United Kingdom, citing a lack of evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. We have performed a new economic evaluation of AP on the basis of contemporary estimates of efficacy, adverse events, and resource implications. A decision analytic cost-effectiveness model was used. Health service costs and benefits (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) were estimated. Rates of IE before and after the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance were available to estimate prophylactic efficacy. AP adverse event rates were derived from recent UK data, and resource implications were based on English Hospital Episode Statistics. AP was less costly and more effective than no AP for all patients at risk of IE. The results are sensitive to AP efficacy, but efficacy would have to be substantially lower for AP not to be cost-effective. AP was even more cost-effective in patients at high risk of IE. Only a marginal reduction in annual IE rates (1.44 cases in high-risk and 33 cases in all at-risk patients) would be required for AP to be considered cost-effective at £20 000 ($26 600) per quality-adjusted life-year. Annual cost savings of £5.5 to £8.2 million ($7.3-$10.9 million) and health gains >2600 quality-adjusted life-years could be achieved from reinstating AP in England. AP is cost-effective for preventing IE, particularly in those at high risk. These findings support the cost-effectiveness of guidelines recommending AP use in high-risk individuals. © 2016 The Authors.
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Nguyen, Thu T.; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Gilman, Stephen E.; Walter, Stefan; Liu, Sze Y.; Manly, Jennifer; Glymour, M. Maria
2015-01-01
Purpose Education is an established correlate of cognitive status in older adulthood, but whether expanding educational opportunities would improve cognitive functioning remains unclear given limitations of prior studies for causal inference. Therefore, we conducted instrumental variable (IV) analyses of the association between education and dementia risk, using for the first time in this area, genetic variants as instruments as well as state-level school policies. Methods IV analyses in the Health and Retirement Study cohort (1998–2010) used two sets of instruments: 1) a genetic risk score constructed from three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (n=8,054); and 2) compulsory schooling laws (CSLs) and state school characteristics (term length, student teacher ratios, and expenditures) (n=13,167). Results Employing the genetic risk score as an IV, there was a 1.1% reduction in dementia risk per year of schooling (95% CI: −2.4, 0.02). Leveraging compulsory schooling laws and state school characteristics as IVs, there was a substantially larger protective effect (−9.5%; 95% CI: −14.8, −4.2). Analyses evaluating the plausibility of the IV assumptions indicated estimates derived from analyses relying on CSLs provide the best estimates of the causal effect of education. Conclusion IV analyses suggest education is protective against risk of dementia in older adulthood. PMID:26633592
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Analysis of Vibrio vulnificus Infection Risk When Consuming Depurated Raw Oysters.
Deng, Kai; Wu, Xulei; Fuentes, Claudio; Su, Yi-Cheng; Welti-Chanes, Jorge; Paredes-Sabja, Daniel; Torres, J Antonio
2015-06-01
A beta Poisson dose-response model for Vibrio vulnificus food poisoning cases leading to septicemia was used to evaluate the effect of depuration at 15 °C on the estimated health risk associated with raw oyster consumption. Statistical variability sources included V. vulnificus level at harvest, time and temperature during harvest and transportation to processing plants, decimal reductions (SV) observed during experimental circulation depuration treatments, refrigerated storage time before consumption, oyster size, and number of oysters per consumption event. Although reaching nondetectable V. vulnificus levels (<30 most probable number per gram) throughout the year and a 3.52 SV were estimated not possible at the 95% confidence level, depuration for 1, 2, 3, and 4 days would reduce the warm season (June through September) risk from 2,669 cases to 558, 93, 38, and 47 cases per 100 million consumption events, respectively. At the 95% confidence level, 47 and 16 h of depuration would reduce the warm and transition season (April through May and October through November) risk, respectively, to 100 cases per 100 million consumption events, which is assumed to be an acceptable risk; 1 case per 100 million events would be the risk when consuming untreated raw oysters in the cold season (December through March).
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Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.
Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D
2014-01-01
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Kriticos, Darren J.; Brunel, Sarah; Ota, Noboru; Fried, Guillaume; Oude Lansink, Alfons G. J. M.; Panetta, F. Dane; Prasad, T. V. Ramachandra; Shabbir, Asad; Yaacoby, Tuvia
2015-01-01
Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the ‘Swiss Cheese’ nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22–53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types. PMID:26325680
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Shafirkin, A V
2015-01-01
Neutrons of the fission spectrum are characterized by relatively high values of linear energy transfer (LET). Data about their effects on biological objects are used to evaluate the risk of delayed effects of accelerated ions within the same LET range that serve as an experimental model of the nuclei component of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Additionally, risks of delayed consequences to cosmonaut's health and average lifetime from certain GCR fluxes and secondary neutrons can be also prognosticated. The article deals with comparative analysis of the literature on reduction of average lifespan (ALS) of animals exposed to neutron reactor spectrum, 60-126 MeV protons, and X- and γ-rays in a broad range of radiation intensity and duration. It was shown that a minimal lifespan reduction by 5% occurs due to a brief exposure to neutrons with the absorbed dose of 5 cGy, whereas same lifespan reduction due to hard X- and γ-radiation occurs after absorption of a minimal dose of 100 cGy. Therefore, according to the estimated minimal ALS reduction in mice, neutron effectiveness is 20-fold higher. Biological effectiveness of protons as regards ALS reduction is virtually equal to that of standard types of radiation. Exposure to X- and γ-radiation with decreasing daily doses, and increasing number of fractions and duration gives rise to an apparent trend toward a less dramatic ALS reduction in mice; on the contrary, exposure to neutrons of varying duration had no effect on threshold doses for the specified ALS reductions. Factors of relative biological effectiveness of neutrons reached 40.
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Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique
Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R
2017-01-01
The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.
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Making self-care a priority for women at risk of breast cancer-related lymphedema.
Radina, M Elise; Armer, Jane M; Stewart, Bob R
2014-05-01
Estimates suggest that between 41% and 94% of breast cancer survivors may develop the chronic condition of secondary lymphedema at some point during their lifetimes. Self-care is critical for effective lymphedema management and risk-reduction. At the same time, women in general have been characterized as engaging in self-sacrificing behaviors in which they choose other-care over self-care. This study explored the self-care experiences of women with breast cancer within the contexts of complex and demanding familial and work-related responsibilities. Participants (N=14) were enrolled in a behavioral-educational intervention aimed at lymphedema risk-reduction. This feminist family theory-informed secondary analysis of qualitative data focused on women's familial roles and the balance or lack of balance between self-sacrifice and self-care. Findings included participants' struggles with time management and prioritizing self-care over care of others as well as making a commitment to self-care. Findings have implications for patient and family-level education and research with regard to gender role-based barriers to self-care and self-care within complex social contexts.
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Strandroth, Johan; Rizzi, Matteo; Sternlund, Simon; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes
2011-12-01
The aim of the present study was to estimate the correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian rating scores and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes, with special focus on long-term disability. Another aim was to determine whether brake assist (BA) systems affect the injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes and to estimate the combined effects in injury reduction of a high Euro NCAP ranking score and BA. In the current study, the Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with the real-life outcome in pedestrian crashes that occurred in Sweden during 2003 to 2010. The real-life crash data were obtained from the data acquisition system Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA), which combines police records and hospital admission data. The medical data consisted of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnoses and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scoring. In all, approximately 500 pedestrians submitted to hospital were included in the study. Each car model was coded according to Euro NCAP pedestrian scores. In addition, the presence or absence of BA was coded for each car involved. Cars were grouped according to their scoring. Injury outcomes were analyzed with AIS and, at the victim level, with permanent medical impairment. This was done by translating the injury scores for each individual to the risk of serious consequences (RSC) at 1, 5, and 10 percent risk of disability level. This indicates the total risk of a medical disability for each victim, given the severity and location of injuries. The mean RSC (mRSC) was then calculated for each car group and t-tests were conducted to falsify the null hypothesis at p ≤ .05 that the mRSC within the groups was equal. The results showed a significant reduction of injury severity for cars with better pedestrian scoring, although cars with a high score could not be studied due to lack of cases. The reduction in RSC for medium-performing cars in comparison with low-performing cars was 17, 26, and 38 percent for 1, 5, and 10 percent of medical impairment, respectively. These results applied to urban areas with speed limits up to 50 km/h, although no significant reduction was found in higher speed zones. Regarding cars with BA, the null hypothesis could not be rejected at p = .05; hence, no significant results of injury reduction were found. A significant correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian score and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes was found. Injury reduction was found to be higher with increasing severity and level of permanent medical impairment. The difference between 1- and 2-star cars is 17 percent in mean risk of permanent medical impairment (mRSC) 1%+, 26 percent in mRSC 5%+, and 38 percent in mRSC 10%+ for crashes in speed zones up to 50 km/h. Brake assist was not found to provide a statistically significant injury reduction.
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Hemmingsen, Bianca; Lund, Søren S; Gluud, Christian; Vaag, Allan; Almdal, Thomas; Hemmingsen, Christina; Wetterslev, Jørn
2011-11-24
To assess the effect of targeting intensive glycaemic control versus conventional glycaemic control on all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, microvascular complications, and severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses of randomised trials. Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, and CINAHL to December 2010; hand search of reference lists and conference proceedings; contacts with authors, relevant pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration. Randomised clinical trials comparing targeted intensive glycaemic control with conventional glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. Published and unpublished trials in all languages were included, irrespective of predefined outcomes. Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data related to study methods, interventions, outcomes, risk of bias, and adverse events. Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated with fixed and random effects models. Fourteen clinical trials that randomised 28,614 participants with type 2 diabetes (15,269 to intensive control and 13,345 to conventional control) were included. Intensive glycaemic control did not significantly affect the relative risks of all cause (1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.13; 28,359 participants, 12 trials) or cardiovascular mortality (1.11, 0.92 to 1.35; 28,359 participants, 12 trials). Trial sequential analyses rejected a relative risk reduction above 10% for all cause mortality and showed insufficient data on cardiovascular mortality. The risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction may be reduced (relative risk 0.85, 0.76 to 0.95; P=0.004; 28,111 participants, 8 trials), but this finding was not confirmed in trial sequential analysis. Intensive glycaemic control showed a reduction of the relative risks for the composite microvascular outcome (0.88, 0.79 to 0.97; P=0.01; 25,600 participants, 3 trials) and retinopathy (0.80, 0.67 to 0.94; P=0.009; 10,793 participants, 7 trials), but trial sequential analyses showed that sufficient evidence had not yet been reached. The estimate of an effect on the risk of nephropathy (relative risk 0.83, 0.64 to 1.06; 27,769 participants, 8 trials) was not statistically significant. The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was significantly increased when intensive glycaemic control was targeted (relative risk 2.39, 1.71 to 3.34; 27,844 participants, 9 trials); trial sequential analysis supported a 30% increased relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia. Intensive glycaemic control does not seem to reduce all cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Data available from randomised clinical trials remain insufficient to prove or refute a relative risk reduction for cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, composite microvascular complications, or retinopathy at a magnitude of 10%. Intensive glycaemic control increases the relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia by 30%.
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Risk of Osteosarcoma in Dogs After Open Fracture Fixation.
Arthur, Elizabeth G; Arthur, Gerald L; Keeler, Matthew R; Bryan, Jeffrey N
2016-01-01
To critically evaluate whether open fracture fixation is a significant risk factor for latent osteosarcoma development. Case-control study. Dogs undergoing open fracture repair and dogs diagnosed with osteosarcoma. Records were retrieved from the Veterinary Medical Database VMDB (1970-2000) for dogs undergoing surgical repair of a fracture and dogs diagnosed with osteosarcoma. Dogs with open reduction of joint luxation, dogs diagnosed with bacterial cystitis, and dogs diagnosed with urinary bladder transitional cell carcinoma (UBTCC) were queried as comparison populations. Relative risk for osteosarcoma development was determined. From a population of 19,041 fractures treated surgically, 15 of those dogs subsequently appeared in the VMDB with osteosarcoma affecting the same bone. The relative risk of a fracture repair and associated orthopedic implants and osteosarcoma occurrence was equivalent to the relative risk of open joint reduction and osteosarcoma occurrence (95% confidence interval; 0.998-1.00). The relative risk of having bacterial cystitis and appearing again in the VMDB with UBTCC was higher than the risk of open fracture repair and a subsequent diagnosis of osteosarcoma (P < .02). The incidence of fracture-related osteosarcoma may be significantly less than previously estimated based on cases queried from the VMDB. Although possible cases of implant-associated osteosarcoma were identified, their occurrence was rare. Elective implant removal for the purpose of reducing the risk of osteosarcoma after fracture repair may not be warranted and merits further investigation. © Copyright 2015 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.
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Cao, Xiaodong; MacNaughton, Piers; Laurent, Jose Cedeno; Allen, Joseph G
2017-01-01
EPA reported that radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States, killing 21,100 people per year. EPA relies on the BEIR VI models, based on an evaluation of radon exposure and lung cancer risk in studies of miners. But these models did not account for co-exposure to diesel exhaust, a known human carcinogen recently classified by IARC. It is probable then that a portion of the lung cancer deaths in the miner cohorts are originally attributable to the exposure to diesel rather than radon. To re-evaluate EPA's radon attributable lung cancer estimates accounting for diesel exposure information in the miner cohorts. We used estimates of historical diesel concentrations, combined with diesel exposure-response functions, to estimate the risks of lung cancer attributable to diesel engine exhaust (DEE) exposure in the miner studies. We re-calculated the fatal lung cancer risk attributable to radon after accounting for risk from diesel and re-estimated the number of U.S. deaths associated with radon in the U.S. using EPA's methodology. Considering the probable confounding with DEE exposure and using the same estimate of baseline mortality from 1989-91 that the EPA currently uses in their calculations, we estimate that radon-induced lung cancer deaths per year are 15,600 (95% CI: 14,300, 17,000)- 19,300 (95% CI: 18,800, 20,000) in the U.S. population, a reduction of 9%-26%. The death estimates would be 12,900-15,900 using 2014 baseline vital statistics. We recommend further research on re-evaluating the health effects of exposure to radon that accounts for new information on diesel exhaust carcinogenicity in BEIR VI models, up-to-date vital statistics and new epidemiological evidence from residential studies.
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MacNaughton, Piers; Laurent, Jose Cedeno; Allen, Joseph G.
2017-01-01
Background EPA reported that radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States, killing 21,100 people per year. EPA relies on the BEIR VI models, based on an evaluation of radon exposure and lung cancer risk in studies of miners. But these models did not account for co-exposure to diesel exhaust, a known human carcinogen recently classified by IARC. It is probable then that a portion of the lung cancer deaths in the miner cohorts are originally attributable to the exposure to diesel rather than radon. Objective To re-evaluate EPA’s radon attributable lung cancer estimates accounting for diesel exposure information in the miner cohorts. Methods We used estimates of historical diesel concentrations, combined with diesel exposure-response functions, to estimate the risks of lung cancer attributable to diesel engine exhaust (DEE) exposure in the miner studies. We re-calculated the fatal lung cancer risk attributable to radon after accounting for risk from diesel and re-estimated the number of U.S. deaths associated with radon in the U.S. using EPA’s methodology. Results Considering the probable confounding with DEE exposure and using the same estimate of baseline mortality from 1989–91 that the EPA currently uses in their calculations, we estimate that radon-induced lung cancer deaths per year are 15,600 (95% CI: 14,300, 17,000)– 19,300 (95% CI: 18,800, 20,000) in the U.S. population, a reduction of 9%–26%. The death estimates would be 12,900–15,900 using 2014 baseline vital statistics. Conclusions We recommend further research on re-evaluating the health effects of exposure to radon that accounts for new information on diesel exhaust carcinogenicity in BEIR VI models, up-to-date vital statistics and new epidemiological evidence from residential studies. PMID:28886109
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Combining Risk Analysis and Slicing for Test Reduction in Open Architecture
2014-04-30
collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources...full-system testing, whose purpose is to check that all the parts work harmoniously together. This part of the effort cannot be reduced unless it is...that eliminates program statements irrelevant to a given slicing criterion. Slicing algorithms detect and follow dependencies of the kinds described
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Combat Service Support (CSS) Enabler Functional Assessment (CEFA)
1998-07-01
CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision making related to mitigating E/I peacetime (programmatic) and wartime risks...not be fielded by Fiscal Year (FY) 10. Based on their estimates, any decisions , especially reductions in manpower, which rely on the existence of the E...Support (CSS) enablers/initiatives (E/I), thereby providing the Commander (CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision
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Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S
2014-06-25
The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.
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Lian, J X; McGhee, S M; Chau, J; Wong, Carlos K H; Lam, Cindy L K; Wong, William C W
2017-05-01
A review of cost-effectiveness studies on self-management education programmes for Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Cochrane, PubMed and PsycINFO databases were searched for papers published from January 2003 through September 2015. Further hand searching using the reference lists of included papers was carried out. In total, 777 papers were identified and 12 papers were finally included. We found eight programmes whose effectiveness analyses were based on randomised controlled trials and whose costs were comprehensively estimated from the stated perspective. Among these eight, four studies showed a cost per unit reduction in clinical risk factors (HbA1c or BMI) of US$491 to US$7723 or cost per glycaemic symptom day avoided of US$39. In three studies the cost per QALY gained, as estimated from a life-time model, was less than US$50,000. However, one study found the programme was not cost-effective despite a gain in QALYs at the one-year follow up. A small number of cost-effectiveness studies were identified with only eight of sufficiently good quality. The cost of a self-management education programme achieving reduction in clinical risk factors seems to be modest and is likely to be cost-effective in the long-term. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio
2013-04-01
The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.
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Nutrition and renal stone disease in space
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zerwekh, Joseph E.
2002-01-01
There is a growing body of evidence from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Russian space program showing that humans exposed to the microgravity environment of space have a greater risk for developing renal stones. Increased bone resorption and the attendant hypercalciuria and hyperphosphaturia contribute significantly to raising the urinary state of saturation with respect to the calcium salts, namely calcium oxalate and calcium phosphate. In addition, other environmental and dietary factors may adversely affect urine composition and increase stone formation risk during space flight. For example, reductions in urinary volume, pH, and citrate contribute to raising stone formation risk. In addition to raising the risk for calcium stone formation, this metabolic profile is conducive to the formation of uric acid stones. Although observations to date have suggested that there may actually be a reduced food intake during the early phase of flight, crew members on longer-duration flights may increase food intake and be at increased risk for stone formation. Taken together, these findings support the use of nutritional recommendations for crew members that would serve to reduce the stone-forming propensity of the urinary environment. Pharmacologic intervention should be directed at raising urinary volumes, diminishing bone losses, and preventing reductions in urinary pH and citrate. Success in reducing the risk for stone formation in astronauts would also be of potential major benefit to the estimated 20 million Americans with nephrolithiasis.
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Reback, Cathy J; Fletcher, Jesse B
2014-07-01
Transgender women ("transwomen") face a disproportionate HIV disease burden; the odds of being HIV-positive are estimated to be 34.2 times higher for transwomen than the United States adult population. From January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2011, HIV prevention outreach encounters were conducted with 2,136 unique transwomen on the streets and at high-risk venues in Los Angeles County. The outreach encounters were comprised of a low-intensity health education and risk reduction intervention, which included referrals to needed services. The goal of the encounters was to assess the participant's level of substance use and sexual risk behaviors to provide appropriate risk reduction strategies and supplies. The sample evidenced high rates of recent alcohol (57.7 %), marijuana (25.6 %), and methamphetamine (21.5 %) use, lifetime injection drug or illegal hormone use (66.3 %), and recent engagement in sex work (73.3 %). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that recent methamphetamine (AOR = 2.09; p ≤ 0.001) and/or crack cocaine (AOR = 2.19; p = 0.010) use, injection drug/hormone use (AOR = 1.65; p ≤ 0.001), unprotected anal intercourse during sex work (AOR = 2.24; p = 0.029), and any non-Hispanic minority racial status were all associated with increased odds of reporting a HIV-positive status. The transwomen encountered via outreach exhibited many risk co-factors for HIV infection and transmission.
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Skin cancer and inorganic arsenic: uncertainty-status of risk.
Brown, K G; Guo, H R; Kuo, T L; Greene, H L
1997-02-01
The current U.S. EPA standard for inorganic arsenic in drinking water is 50 ppb (microgram/L), dating to the National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulation of 1976. The current EPA risk analysis predicts an increased lifetime skin cancer risk on the order of 3 or 4 per 1000 from chronic exposure at that concentration. Revision of the standard to only a few ppb, perhaps even less than 1 ppb, may be indicated by the EPA analysis to reduce the lifetime risk to an acceptable level. The cost to water utilities, and ultimately to their consumers, to conform to such a large reduction in the standard could easily reach several billion dollars, so it is particularly important to assess accurately the current risk and the risk reduction that would be achieved by a lower standard. This article addresses the major sources of uncertainty in the EPA analysis with respect to this objective. Specifically, it focuses on uncertainty and variability in the exposure estimates for the landmark study of Tseng and colleagues in Taiwan, analyzed using a reconstruction of the their exposure data. It is concluded that while the available dataset is suitable to establish the hazard of skin cancer, it is too highly summarized for reliable dose-response assessment. A new epidemiologic study is needed, designed for the requirements of dose-response assessment.
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Antoniou, Tony; Zagorski, Brandon; Macdonald, Erin M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Raboud, Janet; Brophy, Jason; Masinde, Khatundi-Irene; Tharao, Wangari E; Yudin, Mark H; Ng, Ryan; Loutfy, Mona R; Glazier, Richard H
2014-11-01
To characterise trends in live birth rates, adverse neonatal outcomes and socio-demographic characteristics of pregnant women with diagnosed HIV between the ages of 18 and 49 in Ontario, Canada from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2010, we conducted a population-based study. Utilising linked administrative healthcare databases we used generalised estimating equations to characterise secular trends and examine the association between live births and socio-demographic characteristics, including age, region of birth and neighbourhood income quintile. Between 2002/2003 and 2009/2010, there were 551 live births during 15,610 person-years of follow-up. The proportion of HIV-positive mothers originally from Africa or the Caribbean increased from 26.7% to 51.6% over the study period. The risk of pre-term (risk ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.74 to 2.61) and small for gestational age births (risk ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.94) was higher in women with HIV compared with provincial estimates for these outcomes. Women with HIV have rates of pre-term and small for gestational age births that exceed provincial estimates for these outcomes. Further research is required to identify factors mediating these disparities that are amenable to pre-natal risk reduction initiatives. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.
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Skip the Trip: Air Travelers' Behavioral Responses to Pandemic Influenza
Fenichel, Eli P.; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.; Chowell, Gerardo
2013-01-01
Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over “swine flu,” as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication. PMID:23526970
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Levy, Wayne C; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Linker, David T; Farrar, David J; Miller, Leslie W
2009-03-01
According to results of the REMATCH trial, left ventricular assist device therapy in patients with severe heart failure has resulted in a 48% reduction in mortality. A decision tool will be necessary to aid in the selection of patients for destination left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) as the technology progresses for implantation in ambulatory Stage D heart failure patients. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) can be used to risk-stratify heart failure patients for potential LVAD therapy. The SHFM was applied to REMATCH patients with the prospective addition of inotropic agents and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) +/- ventilator. The SHFM was highly predictive of survival (p = 0.0004). One-year SHFM-predicted survival was similar to actual survival for both the REMATCH medical (30% vs 28%) and LVAD (49% vs 52%) groups. The estimated 1-year survival with medical therapy for patients in REMATCH was 30 +/- 21%, but with a range of 0% to 74%. The 1- and 2-year estimated survival was
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Colorectal Cancer After Start of Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Use
Stürmer, Til; Buring, Julie E.; Lee, I-Min; Kurth, Tobias; Gaziano, J. Michael; Glynn, Robert J.
2006-01-01
Purpose Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including aspirin, have been consistently shown to reduce the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in non-experimental studies, but little is known of the factors associated with starting and continuing regular NSAID use and their effect on the NSAID - CRC association. Subjects and Methods Prospective cohort study of 22,071 healthy male physicians aged 40–84 years without indications or contraindications to regular NSAID use at baseline. Annual questionnaires assessed quantity of NSAID use, occurrence of cancer, and risk factors for CRC. Propensity for regular NSAID use (> 60 days/year) was estimated using generalized estimating equations. We used a time-varying Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the association between duration since initiation of regular NSAID use and risk for CRC. Results Regular non-aspirin and any NSAID use increased from 0 to 12% and 1 to 56% over time, respectively, and was predicted by age, body mass index, alcohol consumption, medication use, coronary artery disease, gastrointestinal diseases, arthritis, hypertension, and headaches. Over a median follow-up of 18 years, 495 physicians were diagnosed with CRC. There was no trend of CRC risk with increased duration of regular NSAID use. Five or more years of regular use of any NSAID were associated with a relative risk for CRC of 1.0 (95% confidence interval: 0.7 – 1.5), after adjustment for predictors of regular NSAID use. Conclusion Regular NSAID use was not associated with a substantial risk reduction of CRC after controlling for time-varying predictors of both NSAID use and CRC. PMID:16750963
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Asay, Garrett R Beeler; Homa, David M; Abramsohn, Erin M; Xu, Xin; O'Connor, Erin L; Wang, Guijing
We estimated the reduction in number of hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and stroke as well as the associated health care costs resulting from reducing the number of smokers in the US federal workforce during a 5-year period. We developed a 5-year spreadsheet-based cohort model with parameter values from past literature and analysis of national survey data. We obtained 2015 data on the federal workforce population from the US Office of Personnel Management and data on smoking prevalence among federal workers from the 2013-2015 National Health Interview Survey. We adjusted medical costs and productivity losses for inflation to 2015 US dollars, and we updated future productivity losses for growth. Because of uncertainty about the achievable reduction in smoking prevalence and input values (eg, relative risk for acute myocardial infarction and stroke, medical costs, and absenteeism), we performed a Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We estimated smoking prevalence in the federal workforce to be 13%. A 5 percentage-point reduction in smoking prevalence could result in 1106 fewer hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (range, 925-1293), 799 fewer hospitalizations for stroke (range, 530-1091), and 493 fewer deaths (range, 494-598) during a 5-year period. Similarly, estimated costs averted would be $59 million (range, $49-$63 million) for medical costs, $332 million (range, $173-$490 million) for absenteeism, and $117 million (range, $93-$142 million) for productivity. Reductions in the prevalence of smoking in the federal workforce could substantially reduce the number of hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and stroke, lower medical costs, and improve productivity.
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Chaidez, C; Soto-Beltran, M; Gerba, C P; Tamimi, A H
2014-11-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the reduction of infection risk due to exposure to Salmonella sp. in kitchen cleaning clothes by the use of a bleach (sodium hypochlorite) cleaner utilizing a continuous-time dynamic exposure model. The only route of exposure considered was hand contamination during cloth use. The occurrence and numbers of Salmonella was studied in 60 homes over a 6-week period in which half disinfected kitchen cleaning clothes with a sodium hypochlorite based disinfectant cleaner. This study demonstrated that a significant risk exists for Salmonella infection from kitchen cleaning clothes in Mexican homes and that this risk can be reduced by almost 100-fold by soaking cleaning clothes in a bleach product. The risks of infection and illness could likely be further reduced by developing a more effective procedure for reducing Salmonella in cleaning clothes treated twice a day with a sodium hypochlorite disinfectant (i.e. longer soaking time) or using a greater concentration of the disinfectant. Hygiene intervention is a key strategy to reduce the potential risk of disease-causing micro-organisms in households. There is a lack of understanding of the human health risk associated with the use of contaminated kitchen cleaning cloths. The study used a quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the risk associated with the use of kitchen cleaning clothes by using disinfectant products. The results showed that the use of prescribe protocols can reduce the risk of Salmonella infections in household kitchens. © 2014 The Society for Applied Microbiology.
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Forthun, Ingeborg; Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine; Wilcox, Allen J; Moster, Dag; Petersen, Tanja Gram; Vik, Torstein; Lie, Rolv Terje; Uldall, Peter; Tollånes, Mette Christophersen
2018-06-26
We investigated whether the risk of cerebral palsy (CP) in the child varies by parents' socioeconomic status, in Denmark and Norway. We included almost 1.3 million children born in Demark during 1981-2007 and 2.4 million children born in Norway during 1967-2007, registered in the Medical Birth registries. Data on births were linked to Statistics Denmark and Norway to retrieve information on parents' education and relationship status and, in Denmark, also income. CP diagnoses were obtained from linkage with national registries. We used multivariate log-binominal regression models to estimate relative risk (RR) of CP according to parental socioeconomic status. There was a strong trend of decreasing risk of CP with additional education of both the mother and the father. These trends were nearly identical for the two parents, with a one-third reduction in risk for those with the highest education compared with parents with the lowest education. When both parents had high education, risk of CP was further reduced (RR 0.58, 0.53-0.63). Women with partners had a reduction in risk (RR 0.79, 0.74-0.85) compared with single mothers overall. Risk patterns were stable over time, across countries and within spastic bilateral and unilateral CP. Household income was not associated with risk of CP. Risk of CP in two Scandinavian countries was lower among educated parents and mothers with a partner, but unrelated to income. Factors underlying this stable association with education are unknown, but could include differences in potentially modifiable lifestyle factors and health behaviours.
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The Air Quality Health Index and Asthma Morbidity: A Population-Based Study
Shen, Shixin; Atenafu, Eshetu G.; Guan, Jun; McLimont, Susan; Stocks, Brian; Licskai, Christopher
2012-01-01
Background: Exposure to air pollution has been linked to the exacerbation of respiratory diseases. The Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), developed in Canada, is a new health risk scale for reporting air quality and advising risk reduction actions. Objective: We used the AQHI to estimate the impact of air quality on asthma morbidity, adjusting for potential confounders. Methods: Daily air pollutant measures were obtained from 14 regional monitoring stations in Ontario. Daily counts of asthma-attributed hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, and outpatient visits were obtained from a provincial registry of 1.5 million patients with asthma. Poisson regression was used to estimate health services rate ratios (RRs) as a measure of association between the AQHI or individual pollutants and health services use. We adjusted for age, sex, season, year, and region of residence. Results: The AQHI values were significantly associated with increased use of asthma health services on the same day and on the 2 following days, depending on the specific outcome assessed. A 1-unit increase in the AQHI was associated with a 5.6% increase in asthma outpatient visits (RR = 1.056; 95% CI: 1.053, 1.058) and a 2.1% increase in the rate of hospitalization (RR = 1.021; 95% CI: 1.014, 1.028) on the same day and with a 1.3% increase in the rate of ED visits (RR = 1.013; 95% CI: 1.010, 1.017) after a 2-day lag. Conclusions: The AQHI values were significantly associated with the use of asthma-related health services. Timely AQHI health risk advisories with integrated risk reduction messages may reduce morbidity associated with air pollution in patients with asthma. PMID:23060364
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Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ranagalage, M. M.
2017-12-01
26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parekh, Vishwa S.; Jacobs, Jeremy R.; Jacobs, Michael A.
2014-03-01
The evaluation and treatment of acute cerebral ischemia requires a technique that can determine the total area of tissue at risk for infarction using diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences. Typical MRI data sets consist of T1- and T2-weighted imaging (T1WI, T2WI) along with advanced MRI parameters of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and perfusion weighted imaging (PWI) methods. Each of these parameters has distinct radiological-pathological meaning. For example, DWI interrogates the movement of water in the tissue and PWI gives an estimate of the blood flow, both are critical measures during the evolution of stroke. In order to integrate these data and give an estimate of the tissue at risk or damaged; we have developed advanced machine learning methods based on unsupervised non-linear dimensionality reduction (NLDR) techniques. NLDR methods are a class of algorithms that uses mathematically defined manifolds for statistical sampling of multidimensional classes to generate a discrimination rule of guaranteed statistical accuracy and they can generate a two- or three-dimensional map, which represents the prominent structures of the data and provides an embedded image of meaningful low-dimensional structures hidden in their high-dimensional observations. In this manuscript, we develop NLDR methods on high dimensional MRI data sets of preclinical animals and clinical patients with stroke. On analyzing the performance of these methods, we observed that there was a high of similarity between multiparametric embedded images from NLDR methods and the ADC map and perfusion map. It was also observed that embedded scattergram of abnormal (infarcted or at risk) tissue can be visualized and provides a mechanism for automatic methods to delineate potential stroke volumes and early tissue at risk.
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Vinyl Chloride: A Case Study of Data Suppression and Misrepresentation
Sass, Jennifer Beth; Castleman, Barry; Wallinga, David
2005-01-01
When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized its 2000 update of the toxicological effects of vinyl chloride (VC), it was concerned with two issues: the classification of VC as a carcinogen and the numerical estimate of its potency. In this commentary we describe how the U.S. EPA review of VC toxicology, which was drafted with substantial input from the chemical industry, weakened safeguards on both points. First, the assessment downplays risks from all cancer sites other than the liver. Second, the estimate of cancer potency was reduced 10-fold from values previously used for environmental decision making, a finding that reduces the cost and extent of pollution reduction and cleanup measures. We suggest that this assessment reflects discredited scientific practices and recommend that the U.S. EPA reverse its trend toward ever-increasing collaborations with the regulated industries when generating scientific reviews and risk assessments. PMID:16002366
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Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Deeks, Shelley L; Crowcroft, Natasha S; McGeer, Allison J; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan
2015-02-01
It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22% to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cheng, T.; Xu, Z.; Hong, S.
2017-12-01
Flood disasters frequently attack the urban area in Jinan City during past years, and the city is faced with severe road flooding which greatly threaten pedestrians' safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the pedestrian risk during floods under specific topographic condition. In this study, a model coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic processes is developed in the study area to simulate the flood routing process on the road for the "7.18" rainstorm and validated with post-disaster damage survey information. The risk of pedestrian is estimated with a flood risk assessment model. The result shows that the coupled model performs well in the rainstorm flood process. On the basis of the simulation result, the areas with extreme risk, medium risk, and mild risk are identified, respectively. Regions with high risk are generally located near the mountain front area with steep slopes. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.
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McKeon, Patrick O; Hertel, Jay
2008-01-01
To answer the following clinical questions: (1) Can prophylactic balance and coordination training reduce the risk of sustaining a lateral ankle sprain? (2) Can balance and coordination training improve treatment outcomes associated with acute ankle sprains? (3) Can balance and coordination training improve treatment outcomes in patients with chronic ankle instability? PubMed and CINAHL entries from 1966 through October 2006 were searched using the terms ankle sprain, ankle instability, balance, chronic ankle instability, functional ankle instability, postural control, and postural sway. Only studies assessing the influence of balance training on the primary outcomes of risk of ankle sprain or instrumented postural control measures derived from testing on a stable force plate using the modified Romberg test were included. Studies had to provide results for calculation of relative risk reduction and numbers needed to treat for the injury prevention outcomes or effect sizes for the postural control measures. We calculated the relative risk reduction and numbers needed to treat to assess the effect of balance training on the risk of incurring an ankle sprain. Effect sizes were estimated with the Cohen d for comparisons of postural control performance between trained and untrained groups. Prophylactic balance training substantially reduced the risk of sustaining ankle sprains, with a greater effect seen in those with a history of a previous sprain. Completing at least 6 weeks of balance training after an acute ankle sprain substantially reduced the risk of recurrent ankle sprains; however, consistent improvements in instrumented measures of postural control were not associated with training. Evidence is lacking to assess the reduction in the risk of recurrent sprains and inconclusive to demonstrate improved instrumented postural control measures in those with chronic ankle instability who complete balance training. Balance training can be used prophylactically or after an acute ankle sprain in an effort to reduce future ankle sprains, but current evidence is insufficient to assess this effect in patients with chronic ankle instability.
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Fitch, Kathryn; Goldberg, Sara W.; Iwasaki, Kosuke; Pyenson, Bruce S.; Kuznik, Andreas; Solomon, Henry A.
2009-01-01
Objectives To model the financial and health outcomes impact of intensive statin therapy compared with usual care in a high-risk working-age population (actively employed, commercially insured health plan members and their adult dependents). The target population consists of working-age people who are considered high-risk for cardiovascular disease events because of a history of coronary heart disease. Study Design Three-year event forecast for a sample population generated from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Methods Using Framingham risk scoring system, the probability of myocardial infarction or stroke events was calculated for a representative sample population, ages 35 to 69 years, of people at high risk for cardiovascular disease, with a history of coronary heart disease. The probability of events for each individual was used to project the number of events expected to be generated for this population. Reductions in cardiovascular and stroke events reported in clinical trials with aggressive statin therapy were applied to these cohorts. We used medical claims data to model the cohorts' event costs. All results are adjusted to reflect the demographics of a typical working-age population. Results The high-risk cohort (those with coronary heart disease) comprises 4% of the 35- to 69-year-old commercially insured population but generates 22% of the risk for coronary heart disease and stroke. Reduced event rates associated with intensive statin therapy yielded a $58 mean medical cost reduction per treated person per month; a typical payer cost for a 30-day supply of intensive statin therapy is approximately $57. Conclusions Aggressive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol–lowering therapy for working-age people at high risk for cardiovascular events and with a history of heart disease appears to have a significant potential to reduce the rate of clinical events and is cost-neutral for payers. PMID:25126293
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Pakhomov, Serguei V.S.; Hemmy, Laura S.
2014-01-01
Generative semantic verbal fluency (SVF) tests show early and disproportionate decline relative to other abilities in individuals developing Alzheimer’s disease. Optimal performance on SVF tests depends on the efficiency of using clustered organization of semantically related items and the ability to switch between clusters. Traditional approaches to clustering and switching have relied on manual determination of clusters. We evaluated a novel automated computational linguistic approach for quantifying clustering behavior. Our approach is based on Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) for computing strength of semantic relatedness between pairs of words produced in response to SVF test. The mean size of semantic clusters (MCS) and semantic chains (MChS) are calculated based on pairwise relatedness values between words. We evaluated the predictive validity of these measures on a set of 239 participants in the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging. All were cognitively intact at baseline assessment, measured with the CERAD battery, and were followed in 18 month waves for up to 20 years. The onset of either dementia or memory impairment were used as outcomes in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and education and censored at follow up waves 5 (6.3 years) and 13 (16.96 years). Higher MCS was associated with 38% reduction in dementia risk at wave 5 and 26% reduction at wave 13, but not with the onset of memory impairment. Higher (+1 SD) MChS was associated with 39% dementia risk reduction at wave 5 but not wave 13, and association with memory impairment was not significant. Higher traditional SVF scores were associated with 22–29% memory impairment and 35–40% dementia risk reduction. SVF scores were not correlated with either MCS or MChS. Our study suggests that an automated approach to measuring clustering behavior can be used to estimate dementia risk in cognitively normal individuals. PMID:23845236
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Pakhomov, Serguei V S; Hemmy, Laura S
2014-06-01
Generative semantic verbal fluency (SVF) tests show early and disproportionate decline relative to other abilities in individuals developing Alzheimer's disease. Optimal performance on SVF tests depends on the efficiency of using clustered organization of semantically related items and the ability to switch between clusters. Traditional approaches to clustering and switching have relied on manual determination of clusters. We evaluated a novel automated computational linguistic approach for quantifying clustering behavior. Our approach is based on Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) for computing strength of semantic relatedness between pairs of words produced in response to SVF test. The mean size of semantic clusters (MCS) and semantic chains (MChS) are calculated based on pairwise relatedness values between words. We evaluated the predictive validity of these measures on a set of 239 participants in the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging. All were cognitively intact at baseline assessment, measured with the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) battery, and were followed in 18-month waves for up to 20 years. The onset of either dementia or memory impairment were used as outcomes in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and education and censored at follow-up waves 5 (6.3 years) and 13 (16.96 years). Higher MCS was associated with 38% reduction in dementia risk at wave 5 and 26% reduction at wave 13, but not with the onset of memory impairment. Higher [+1 standard deviation (SD)] MChS was associated with 39% dementia risk reduction at wave 5 but not wave 13, and association with memory impairment was not significant. Higher traditional SVF scores were associated with 22-29% memory impairment and 35-40% dementia risk reduction. SVF scores were not correlated with either MCS or MChS. Our study suggests that an automated approach to measuring clustering behavior can be used to estimate dementia risk in cognitively normal individuals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Calhoun, Patrick S; Elter, John R; Jones, Everett R; Kudler, Harold; Straits-Tröster, Kristy
2008-11-01
Military service in Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom [OEF]) and Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedom [OIF]) has been associated with high rates of mental health problems. Relatively little is known, however, about the prevalence of risky drinking among OEF/OIF veterans using U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care. This study examined the prevalence of hazardous alcohol use among OEF/OIF veterans and the incidence of alcohol risk-reduction counseling offered by VA providers. A secondary analysis of data extracted from the VA outpatient Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients, a stratified random sample of VA clinic users from the fiscal year 2005 (October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2005), was conducted. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) was scored to assess hazardous drinking and possible alcohol use disorder (AUD). Patient report of alcohol counseling by a VA provider in the past year was queried for those with risky drinking behavior. The association of demographic variables with potentially hazardous alcohol use, alcohol use disorder, and receipt of alcohol risk-reduction counseling was estimated using logistic regression. Overall, 40% of the sample screened positive for potentially hazardous alcohol use, and 22% screened positive for possible AUD. Only 31% of those with hazardous drinking behavior, however, reported being counseled to cut back or to not drink alcohol. Higher AUDIT-C scores were associated with increased likelihood of risk-reduction counseling. Among patients reporting hazardous drinking, there was a trend for those with less education and lower income to be more likely to report receiving advice about their drinking. Hazardous alcohol use is prevalent among OEF/OIF veterans seeking VA health care. There is a need for increased vigilance and action to identify and counsel at-risk veterans in this population. Copyright 2008 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.
2015-01-01
Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25 years).
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The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world.
Samarasin, Pasan; Shuter, Brian J; Wright, Stephen I; Rodd, F Helen
2017-02-01
Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) and a disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over-estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent-based method did not accurately reflect long-term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic-connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Horiguchi, Fumio; Nakata, Kisaburo; Ito, Naganori; Okawa, Ken
2006-12-01
A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1-3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects. A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.
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Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy
2017-01-01
Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812
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Aune, D; Chan, D S M; Vieira, A R; Rosenblatt, D A Navarro; Vieira, R; Greenwood, D C; Norat, T
2012-07-01
Evidence for an association between fruit and vegetable intake and breast cancer risk is inconclusive. To clarify the association, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence from prospective studies. We searched PubMed for prospective studies of fruit and vegetable intake and breast cancer risk until April 30, 2011. We included fifteen prospective studies that reported relative risk estimates and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer associated with fruit and vegetable intake. Random effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks. The summary relative risk (RR) for the highest versus the lowest intake was 0.89 (95 % CI: 0.80-0.99, I (2) = 0 %) for fruits and vegetables combined, 0.92 (95 % CI: 0.86-0.98, I (2) = 9 %) for fruits, and 0.99 (95 % CI: 0.92-1.06, I (2) = 20 %) for vegetables. In dose-response analyses, the summary RR per 200 g/day was 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.93-1.00, I (2) = 2 %) for fruits and vegetables combined, 0.94 (95 % CI: 0.89-1.00, I (2) = 39 %) for fruits, and 1.00 (95 % CI: 0.95-1.06, I (2) = 17 %) for vegetables. In this meta-analysis of prospective studies, high intake of fruits, and fruits and vegetables combined, but not vegetables, is associated with a weak reduction in risk of breast cancer.
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Evaluating the impact of a school-based health intervention using a randomized field experiment.
Greve, Jane; Heinesen, Eskil
2015-07-01
We conduct an econometric evaluation of a health-promoting programme in primary and lower secondary schools in Denmark. The programme includes health-related measurements of the students, communication of knowledge about health, and support of health-promoting projects for students. Half of the schools in the fourth largest municipality in Denmark were randomly selected into a treatment group implementing the programme, while the remainder served as a control group. We estimate both OLS models using only post-intervention observations and difference in differences (DID) models using also pre-intervention observations. We estimate effects of the initiative on BMI, waist/height ratio, overweight and obesity for the entire sample and by gender and grade. We find no consistent effect of the programme. When we use the entire sample, no estimates are statistically significant at conventional levels, although the point estimates for the effect on BMI, indicating an average reduction in the range of 0.10-0.15 kg/m(2), are consistent with the results in a recent Cochrane review evaluating 55 studies of diet and exercise interventions targeting children; and DID estimates which are marginally significant (at the 10% level) indicate that the intervention reduces the risk of obesity by 1% point. Running separate estimations by gender and grade we find a few statistically significant estimates: OLS estimates indicate that the intervention reduces BMI in females in grade 5 by 0.39 kg/m(2) and reduces the risk of obesity in females in grade 9 by 2.6% points; DID estimates indicate an increase in waist for females in preschool class by 1.2 cm and an increase in the risk of obesity in grade 9 males by 4% points. However, if we corrected for multiple hypotheses testing these estimates would be insignificant. There is no statistically significant correlation between participation in the programme and the number of other health-promoting projects at the schools. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan
2017-07-01
The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety and collapse prevention in future earthquakes, a five-step road map has been purposed.
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Outcomes after heart transplantation in patients with and without pretransplant renal dysfunction.
Molina, Ezequiel J; Sandusky, Matthew F; Gupta, Dipin; Gaughan, John P; McClurken, James B; Furukawa, Satoshi; Macha, Mahender
2010-06-01
To compare long-term survival and incidence of ESRD between patients with and without preoperative renal dysfunction following heart transplantation. Fifty consecutive patients with preoperative estimated GFR < or = than 50 ml/min were compared with 50 age-matched patients with estimated GFR > or = than 80 ml/min who underwent heart transplantation between 1994 and 1998. We investigated two primary outcomes: death and development of ESRD. We also analyzed risk factors. Eight patients (16%) developed ESRD and 19 (38%) died in the control group whereas 10 patients (20%) developed ESRD and 26 (52%) died in the renal failure group during a mean follow-up period of 6.74 +/- 3.31 years. Survival and time to ESRD were not significantly different. In univariate and multivariate analysis, waiting time was the only risk factor found to predict mortality but not ESRD. High cyclosporine levels were only found to be associated with lower estimated GFR (p < 0.009). Among the control group, mortality was significantly higher in the subgroup of patients that developed > or = 50% reduction of estimated GFR at the end of the first post transplant year (p < 0.05). This study suggests that low pre-transplant estimated GFR may not accurately predict long-term development of ESRD.
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Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.
Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R
2011-01-01
Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Hypothetical midlife interventions in women and risk of type 2 diabetes.
Danaei, Goodarz; Pan, An; Hu, Frank B; Hernán, Miguel A
2013-01-01
Randomized trials have examined short-term effects of lifestyle interventions for diabetes prevention only among high-risk individuals. Prospective studies have examined the associations between lifestyle factors and diabetes in healthy populations but have not characterized the intervention. We estimated the long-term effects of hypothetical lifestyle interventions on diabetes in a prospective study of healthy women, using the parametric g-formula. Using data from the Nurses' Health Study, we followed 76,402 women from 1984 to 2008. We estimated the risk of type 2 diabetes under eight hypothetical interventions: quitting smoking, losing weight by 5% every 2 years if overweight/obese, exercising at least 30 minutes a day, eating less than three servings a week of red meat, eating at least two servings a day of whole grain, drinking two or more cups of coffee a day, drinking five or more grams of alcohol a day, and drinking less than one serving of soda a week. The 24-year risk of diabetes was 9.6% under no intervention and 4.3% when all interventions were imposed (55% lower risk [95% confidence interval = 47 to 63%]). The most effective interventions were weight loss (24% lower risk), physical activity (19%), and moderate alcohol use (19%). Overweight/obese women would benefit the most, with 10.8 percentage point reduction in 24-year risk of diabetes. The validity of these estimates relies on the absence of unmeasured confounding, measurement error, and model misspecification. A combination of dietary and nondietary lifestyle modifications, begun in midlife or later in relatively healthy women, could have prevented at least half of the cases of type 2 diabetes in this cohort of U.S. women.
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Martínez-González, Miguel A; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira
2017-01-01
The role of yogurt consumption in the risk of developing overweight, obesity, or metabolic syndrome has been the subject of epidemiologic studies over the last 10 y. A comprehensive literature search on MEDLINE and ISI Web of Knowledge from 1966 through June 2016 was conducted to examine the relation between yogurt consumption and weight gain, as well as the risk of overweight, obesity, or metabolic syndrome, in prospective cohort studies. Ten articles met all the inclusion criteria and were included in our systematic review. Of the 10 cohort studies, 3 analyzed the relation between yogurt consumption and the risk of overweight or obesity, 8 analyzed changes in waist circumference or weight changes, 3 studied the association with the risk of developing metabolic syndrome, and 1 studied the probability of abdominal obesity reversion. Although an inverse association between yogurt consumption and the risk of developing overweight or obesity was not fully consistent or always statistically significant, all studies but one showed in their point estimates inverse associations between yogurt consumption and changes in waist circumference, changes in weight, risk of overweight or obesity, and risk of metabolic syndrome during follow-up, although not all estimates were statistically significant (2 studies). Prospective cohort studies consistently suggested that yogurt consumption may contribute to a reduction in adiposity indexes and the risk of metabolic syndrome. Therefore, there is a need for more prospective studies and high-quality randomized clinical trials to confirm this apparent inverse association. PMID:28096138
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Kerner, Berit; North, Kari E; Fallin, M Daniele
2010-01-01
Participants analyzed actual and simulated longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study for various metabolic and cardiovascular traits. The genetic information incorporated into these investigations ranged from selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms to genome-wide association arrays. Genotypes were incorporated using a broad range of methodological approaches including conditional logistic regression, linear mixed models, generalized estimating equations, linear growth curve estimation, growth modeling, growth mixture modeling, population attributable risk fraction based on survival functions under the proportional hazards models, and multivariate adaptive splines for the analysis of longitudinal data. The specific scientific questions addressed by these different approaches also varied, ranging from a more precise definition of the phenotype, bias reduction in control selection, estimation of effect sizes and genotype associated risk, to direct incorporation of genetic data into longitudinal modeling approaches and the exploration of population heterogeneity with regard to longitudinal trajectories. The group reached several overall conclusions: 1) The additional information provided by longitudinal data may be useful in genetic analyses. 2) The precision of the phenotype definition as well as control selection in nested designs may be improved, especially if traits demonstrate a trend over time or have strong age-of-onset effects. 3) Analyzing genetic data stratified for high-risk subgroups defined by a unique development over time could be useful for the detection of rare mutations in common multi-factorial diseases. 4) Estimation of the population impact of genomic risk variants could be more precise. The challenges and computational complexity demanded by genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism data were also discussed. PMID:19924713
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The public health benefits of insulation retrofits in existing housing in the United States
Levy, Jonathan I; Nishioka, Yurika; Spengler, John D
2003-01-01
Background Methodological limitations make it difficult to quantify the public health benefits of energy efficiency programs. To address this issue, we developed a risk-based model to estimate the health benefits associated with marginal energy usage reductions and applied the model to a hypothetical case study of insulation retrofits in single-family homes in the United States. Methods We modeled energy savings with a regression model that extrapolated findings from an energy simulation program. Reductions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions and particle precursors (SO2 and NOx) were quantified using fuel-specific emission factors and marginal electricity analyses. Estimates of population exposure per unit emissions, varying by location and source type, were extrapolated from past dispersion model runs. Concentration-response functions for morbidity and mortality from PM2.5 were derived from the epidemiological literature, and economic values were assigned to health outcomes based on willingness to pay studies. Results In total, the insulation retrofits would save 800 TBTU (8 × 1014 British Thermal Units) per year across 46 million homes, resulting in 3,100 fewer tons of PM2.5, 100,000 fewer tons of NOx, and 190,000 fewer tons of SO2 per year. These emission reductions are associated with outcomes including 240 fewer deaths, 6,500 fewer asthma attacks, and 110,000 fewer restricted activity days per year. At a state level, the health benefits per unit energy savings vary by an order of magnitude, illustrating that multiple factors (including population patterns and energy sources) influence health benefit estimates. The health benefits correspond to $1.3 billion per year in externalities averted, compared with $5.9 billion per year in economic savings. Conclusion In spite of significant uncertainties related to the interpretation of PM2.5 health effects and other dimensions of the model, our analysis demonstrates that a risk-based methodology is viable for national-level energy efficiency programs. PMID:12740041
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Roobol, Monique J; Kerkhof, Melissa; Schröder, Fritz H; Cuzick, Jack; Sasieni, Peter; Hakama, Matti; Stenman, Ulf Hakan; Ciatto, Stefano; Nelen, Vera; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Lujan, Marcos; Lilja, Hans; Zappa, Marco; Denis, Louis; Recker, Franz; Berenguer, Antonio; Ruutu, Mirja; Kujala, Paula; Bangma, Chris H; Aus, Gunnar; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Villers, Arnauld; Rebillard, Xavier; Moss, Sue M; de Koning, Harry J; Hugosson, Jonas; Auvinen, Anssi
2009-10-01
Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has been shown to reduce prostate specific mortality by 20% in an intention to screen (ITS) analysis in a randomised trial (European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC]). This effect may be diluted by nonattendance in men randomised to the screening arm and contamination in men randomised to the control arm. To assess the magnitude of the PCa-specific mortality reduction after adjustment for nonattendance and contamination. We analysed the occurrence of PCa deaths during an average follow-up of 9 yr in 162,243 men 55-69 yr of age randomised in seven participating centres of the ERSPC. Centres were also grouped according to the type of randomisation (ie, before or after informed written consent). Nonattendance was defined as nonattending the initial screening round in ERSPC. The estimate of contamination was based on PSA use in controls in ERSPC Rotterdam. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between an ITS analysis and analyses adjusting for nonattendance and contamination using a statistical method developed for this purpose. In the ITS analysis, the RR of PCa death in men allocated to the intervention arm relative to the control arm was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96). Adjustment for nonattendance resulted in a RR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.93), and additional adjustment for contamination using two different estimates led to estimated reductions of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51-0.92) to 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), respectively. Contamination data were obtained through extrapolation of single-centre data. No heterogeneity was found between the groups of centres. PSA screening reduces the risk of dying of PCa by up to 31% in men actually screened. This benefit should be weighed against a degree of overdiagnosis and overtreatment inherent in PCa screening.
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Mostafa, S A; Coleman, R L; Agbaje, O F; Gray, A M; Holman, R R; Bethel, M A
2018-01-01
Glucose-lowering interventions in Type 2 diabetes mellitus have demonstrated reductions in microvascular complications and modest reductions in macrovascular complications. However, the degree to which targeting different HbA 1c reductions might reduce risk is unclear. Participant-level data for Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS) participants with established cardiovascular disease were used in a Type 2 diabetes-specific simulation model to quantify the likely impact of different HbA 1c decrements on complication rates. Ten-year micro- and macrovascular rates were estimated with HbA 1c levels fixed at 86, 75, 64, 53 and 42 mmol/mol (10%, 9%, 8%, 7% and 6%) while holding other risk factors constant at their baseline levels. Cumulative relative risk reductions for each outcome were derived for each HbA 1c decrement. Of 5717 participants studied, 72.0% were men and 74.2% White European, with a mean (sd) age of 66.2 (7.9) years, systolic blood pressure 134 (16.9) mmHg, LDL-cholesterol 2.3 (0.9) mmol/l, HDL-cholesterol 1.13 (0.3) mmol/l and median Type 2 diabetes duration 9.6 (5.1-15.6) years. Ten-year cumulative relative risk reductions for modelled HbA 1c values of 75, 64, 53 and 42 mmol/mol, relative to 86 mmol/mol, were 4.6%, 9.3%, 15.1% and 20.2% for myocardial infarction; 6.0%, 12.8%, 19.6% and 25.8% for stroke; 14.4%, 26.6%, 37.1% and 46.4% for diabetes-related ulcer; 21.5%, 39.0%, 52.3% and 63.1% for amputation; and 13.6%, 25.4%, 36.0% and 44.7 for single-eye blindness. These simulated complication rates might help inform the degree to which complications might be reduced by targeting particular HbA 1c reductions in Type 2 diabetes. © 2017 Diabetes UK.
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Antibiotics for asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnancy.
Smaill, Fiona M; Vazquez, Juan C
2015-08-07
Asymptomatic bacteriuria occurs in 2% to 10% of pregnancies and, if not treated, up to 30% of mothers will develop acute pyelonephritis. Asymptomatic bacteriuria has been associated with low birthweight and preterm birth. To assess the effect of antibiotic treatment for asymptomatic bacteriuria on the development of pyelonephritis and the risk of low birthweight and preterm birth. We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (19 March 2015) and reference lists of retrieved studies. Randomized trials comparing antibiotic treatment with placebo or no treatment in pregnant women with asymptomatic bacteriuria found on antenatal screening. Two review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion and risk of bias, extracted data and checked them for accuracy. Fourteen studies, involving almost 2000 women, were included. Antibiotic treatment compared with placebo or no treatment reduced the incidence of pyelonephritis (average risk ratio (RR) 0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13 to 0.41; 11 studies, 1932 women; very low quality evidence). Antibiotic treatment was also associated with a reduction in the incidence of low birthweight babies (average RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.93; six studies, 1437 babies; low quality evidence) and preterm birth (RR 0.27, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.62; two studies, 242 women; low quality evidence). A reduction in persistent bacteriuria at the time of delivery was seen (average RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.53; four studies; 596 women). There were very limited data on which to estimate the effect of antibiotics on other infant outcomes and maternal adverse effects were rarely described.Overall, all 14 studies were assessed as being at high or unclear risk of bias. While many studies lacked an adequate description of methods and the risk of bias could only be assessed as unclear, in almost all studies there was at least one domain where the risk of bias was judged as high. The three primary outcomes were assessed with GRADE software and given a quality rating. Evidence for pyelonephritis, preterm birth and birthweight less than 2500 g was assessed as of low or very low quality. While antibiotic treatment is effective in reducing the risk of pyelonephritis in pregnancy, the estimate of the effect is very uncertain because of the very low quality of the evidence. The reduction in low birthweight and preterm birth with antibiotic treatment is consistent with theories about the role of infection in adverse pregnancy outcomes, but this association should be interpreted with caution given the very poor quality of the included studies.
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Little, M P
2002-03-01
To estimate the ratio of risks for exposure to radon progeny relative to low-LET radiation based on human lung cancer data, taking account of possible time and age variations in radiation-induced lung cancer risk. Fitting two sorts of time- and age-adjusted relative risk models to a case-control dataset nested within the Colorado Plateau uranium miner cohort and to the Japanese atomic (A)-bomb survivor mortality data. If all A-bomb survivors are compared with the Colorado data, there are statistically significant (two-sided p < 0.05) differences between the two datasets in the pattern of the variation of relative risk with time after exposure, age at exposure and attained age. The excess relative risk decreases much faster with time, age at exposure and attained age in the Colorado uranium miners than in the Japanese A-bomb survivors. If only male A-bomb survivors are compared with the Colorado data, there are no longer statistically significant differences between the two datasets in the pattern of variation of relative risk with time after exposure, age at exposure or attained age. There are no statistically significant differences between the male and female A-bomb survivors in the speed of reduction of relative risk with time after exposure, age at exposure or attained age, although there are indications of rather faster reduction of relative risk with time and age among male survivors than among female survivors. The implicit risk conversion factor for exposure to radon progeny relative to the A-bomb radiation in the male survivors is 1.8 x 10(-2) Sv WLM(-1) (95% CI 6.1 x10(-3), 1.1 x 10(-1)) using a model with exponential adjustments for the effects of radiation for time since exposure and age at exposure, and 1.9 x 10(-2) Sv WLM(-1) (95% CI 6.2 x 10(-3), 1.6 x 10(-1)) using a model with adjustments for the effects of radiation proportional to powers of time since exposure and attained age. Estimates of the risk conversion factor calculated using variant assumptions as to the definition of lung cancer in the Colorado data, or by excluding miners for whom exposure estimates may be less reliable, are very similar. The absence of information on cigarette smoking in the Japanese A-bomb survivors, and the possibility that this may confound the time trends in radiation-induced lung cancer risk in that cohort, imply that these findings should be interpreted with caution. There are no statistically significant differences between the male A-bomb survivors data and the Colorado miner data in the pattern of variation of relative risk with time after exposure and age at exposure. The risk conversion factor is very close to the value suggested by the latest ICRP lung model, albeit with substantial uncertainties.
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Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Magras, Catherine; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie
2015-11-20
In a previous study, a modular process risk model, from the raw material reception to the final product storage, was built to estimate the risk of a UHT-aseptic line of not complying with commercial sterility (Pujol et al., 2015). This present study was focused on demonstrating how the model (updated version with uncertainty and variability separated and 2(nd) order Monte Carlo procedure run) could be used to assess quantitatively the influence of management options. This assessment was done in three steps: pinpoint which process step had the highest influence on the risk, identify which management option(s) could be the most effective to control and/or reduce the risk, and finally evaluate quantitatively the influence of changing process setting(s) on the risk. For Bacillus cereus, it was identified that during post-process storage in an aseptic tank, there was potentially an air re-contamination due to filter efficiency loss (efficiency loss due to successive in-place sterilizations after cleaning operations), followed by B. cereus growth. Two options were then evaluated: i) reducing by one fifth of the number of filter sterilizations before renewing the filters, ii) designing new UHT-aseptic lines without an aseptic tank, i.e. without a storage period after the thermal process and before filling. Considering the uncertainty in the model, it was not possible to confirm whether these options had a significant influence on the risk associated with B. cereus. On the other hand, for Geobacillus stearothermophilus, combinations of heat-treatment time and temperature enabling the control or reduction in risk by a factor of ca. 100 were determined; for ease of operational implementation, they were presented graphically in the form of iso-risk curves. For instance, it was established that a heat treatment of 138°C for 31s (instead of 138°C for 25s) enabled a reduction in risk to 18×10(-8) (95% CI=[10; 34]×10(-8)), instead of 578×10(-8) (95% CI=[429; 754]×10(-8)) initially. In conclusion, a modular risk model, as the one exemplified here with a UHT-aseptic line, is a valuable tool in process design and operation, bringing definitive quantitative elements into the decision making process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Amor, Antonio J; Serra-Mir, Mercè; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Corella, Dolores; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Fitó, Montserrat; Estruch, Ramón; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Arós, Fernando; Babio, Nancy; Ros, Emilio; Ortega, Emilio
2017-03-13
The usefulness of cardiovascular disease (CVD) predictive equations in different populations is debatable. We assessed the efficacy of the Framingham-REGICOR scale, validated for the Spanish population, to identify future CVD in participants, who were predefined as being at high-risk in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study-a nutrition-intervention primary prevention trial-and the impact of adherence to the Mediterranean diet on CVD across risk categories. In a post hoc analysis, we assessed the CVD predictive value of baseline estimated risk in 5966 PREDIMED participants (aged 55-74 years, 57% women; 48% with type 2 diabetes mellitus). Major CVD events, the primary PREDIMED end point, were an aggregate of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios for major CVD events and effect modification from the Mediterranean diet intervention across risk strata (low, moderate, high, very high). The Framingham-REGICOR classification of PREDIMED participants was 25.1% low risk, 44.5% moderate risk, and 30.4% high or very high risk. During 6-year follow-up, 188 major CVD events occurred. Hazard ratios for major CVD events increased in parallel with estimated risk (2.68, 4.24, and 6.60 for moderate, high, and very high risk), particularly in men (7.60, 13.16, and 15.85, respectively, versus 2.16, 2.28, and 3.51, respectively, in women). Yet among those with low or moderate risk, 32.2% and 74.3% of major CVD events occurred in men and women, respectively. Mediterranean diet adherence was associated with CVD risk reduction regardless of risk strata ( P >0.4 for interaction). Incident CVD increased in parallel with estimated risk in the PREDIMED cohort, but most events occurred in non-high-risk categories, particularly in women. Until predictive tools are improved, promotion of the Mediterranean diet might be useful to reduce CVD independent of baseline risk. URL: http://www.Controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN35739639. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Rubin, Yoram; Maxwell, Reed M.
2009-06-01
Defining rational and effective hydrogeological data acquisition strategies is of crucial importance as such efforts are always resource limited. Usually, strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on uncertainty. This paper presents an approach for determining site characterization needs on the basis of human health risk. The main challenge is in striking a balance between reduction in uncertainty in hydrogeological, behavioral, and physiological parameters. Striking this balance can provide clear guidance on setting priorities for data acquisition and for better estimating adverse health effects in humans. This paper addresses this challenge through theoretical developments and numerical simulation. A wide range of factors that affect site characterization needs are investigated, including the dimensions of the contaminant plume and additional length scales that characterize the transport problem, as well as the model of human health risk. The concept of comparative information yield curves is used for investigating the relative impact of hydrogeological and physiological parameters in risk. Results show that characterization needs are dependent on the ratios between flow and transport scales within a risk-driven approach. Additionally, the results indicate that human health risk becomes less sensitive to hydrogeological measurements for large plumes. This indicates that under near-ergodic conditions, uncertainty reduction in human health risk may benefit from better understanding of the physiological component as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization.
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Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv
2014-03-25
Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.
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Hallett, Timothy B; Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Gonese, Elizabeth; Garnett, Geoff P
2009-06-01
Determining whether interventions to reduce HIV transmission have worked is essential, but complicated by the potential for generalised epidemics to evolve over time without individuals changing risk behaviour. We aimed to develop a method to evaluate evidence for changes in risk behaviour altering the course of an HIV epidemic. We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission, incorporating the potential for natural changes in the epidemic as it matures and the introduction of antiretroviral treatment, and applied a Bayesian Melding framework, in which the model and observed trends in prevalence can be compared. We applied the model to Zimbabwe, using HIV prevalence estimates from antenatal clinic surveillance and house-hold based surveys, and basing model parameters on data from sexual behaviour surveys. There was strong evidence for reductions in risk behaviour stemming HIV transmission. We estimate these changes occurred between 1999 and 2004 and averted 660,000 (95% credible interval: 460,000-860,000) infections by 2008. The model and associated analysis framework provide a robust way to evaluate the evidence for changes in risk behaviour affecting the course of HIV epidemics, avoiding confounding by the natural evolution of HIV epidemics.
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Midlife Activity Predicts Risk of Dementia in Older Male Twin Pairs
Carlson, Michelle C.; Helms, Michael J.; Steffens, David C.; Burke, James R.; Potter, Guy G.; Plassman, Brenda L.
2013-01-01
Background Prospective study of dementia to elucidate mechanisms of disease risk factors amenable to modification and specifically to determine whether midlife cognitive and physical leisure activities are associated with delayed onset or reduced risk of dementia within older male twin pairs. Method Co-twin control design using prospectively collected exposure information to predict risk of dementia 20–40 years later. Setting Community-dwelling and nursing home residents living throughout the continental United States. Participants 147 male twin-pairs who were discordant for dementia or age of dementia onset and were members of the NAS-NRC Twin Registry of World War II veterans and participants in the Duke Twins Study of Memory in Aging. Main Outcome Measure Diagnosed dementia using a two-stage screen and full clinical evaluation. Conditional odds ratios were estimated for the association between midlife leisure activities and late life dementia. Results Greater midlife cognitive activity was associated with a 26% risk reduction for dementia onset. Protective effects were most robust in monozygotic twin-pairs, where genetic and early-life influences were most tightly controlled, and for activities that were often cognitive and social in nature. Cognitive activity was particularly protective among monozygotic twin-pairs carrying the APOE4 allele, with a 30% risk reduction. Midlife physical activity did not modify dementia risk. Conclusions Participation in a range of cognitively and socially engaging activities in midlife reduced risk for dementia and AD in twins discordant for onset, particularly among twin-pairs at elevated genetic risk, and may be indicative of an enriched environment. PMID:18790459
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Quantitative assessment of risk reduction from hand washing with antibacterial soaps.
Gibson, L L; Rose, J B; Haas, C N; Gerba, C P; Rusin, P A
2002-01-01
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that there are 3,713,000 cases of infectious disease associated with day care facilities each year. The objective of this study was to examine the risk reduction achieved from using different soap formulations after diaper changing using a microbial quantitative risk assessment approach. To achieve this, a probability of infection model and an exposure assessment based on micro-organism transfer were used to evaluate the efficacy of different soap formulations in reducing the probability of disease following hand contact with an enteric pathogen. Based on this model, it was determined that the probability of infection ranged from 24/100 to 91/100 for those changing diapers of babies with symptomatic shigellosis who used a control product (soap without an antibacterial ingredient), 22/100 to 91/100 for those who used an antibacterial soap (chlorohexadine 4%), and 15/100 to 90/100 for those who used a triclosan (1.5%) antibacterial soap. Those with asymptomatic shigellosis who used a non-antibacterial control soap had a risk between 49/100,000 and 53/100, those who used the 4% chlorohexadine-containing soap had a risk between 43/100,000 and 51/100, and for those who used a 1.5% triclosan soap had a risk between 21/100,000 and 43/100. The adequate washing of hands after diapering reduces risk and can be further reduced by a factor of 20% by the use of an antibacterial soap. Quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool in the evaluation of household sanitizing agents and low risk outcomes.
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Thorrington, Dominic; Andrews, Nick; Stowe, Julia; Miller, Elizabeth; van Hoek, Albert Jan
2018-02-08
The seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) was introduced in England in September 2006, changing to the 13-valent vaccine in April 2010. PCV impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been extensively reported, but less described is its impact on the burden of pneumonia, sepsis and otitis media in the hospital. Using details on all admissions to hospitals in England, we compared the incidence of pneumococcal-specific and syndromic disease endpoints in a 24-month pre-PCV period beginning April 2004 to the 24-month period ending March 2015 to derive incidence rate ratios (IRRs). To adjust for possible secular trends in admission practice, IRRs were compared to the IRRs for five control conditions over the same period and the relative change assessed using the geometric mean of the five control IRRs as a composite, and individually for each control condition to give the min-max range. Relative changes were also compared with IRRs for IPD from the national laboratory database. The effect of stratifying cases into those with and without clinical risk factors for pneumococcal infection was explored. Relative reductions in pneumococcal pneumonia were seen in all age groups and in those with and without risk factors; in children under 15 years old reductions were similar in magnitude to reductions in IPD. For pneumonia of unspecified cause, relative reductions were seen in those under 15 years old (maximum reduction in children under 2 years of 34%, min-max: 11-49%) with a relative increase in 65+ year olds most marked in those with underlying risk conditions (41%, min-max: 0-82%). Reductions in pneumococcal sepsis were seen in all age groups, with the largest reduction in children younger than 2 years (67%, min-max 56-75%). Reductions in empyema and lung abscess were also seen in under 15 year olds. Results for other disease endpoints were varied. For disease endpoints showing an increase in raw IRR, the increase was generally reduced when expressed as a relative change. Use of a composite control and stratification by risk group status can help elucidate the impact of PCV on non-IPD disease endpoints and in vulnerable population groups. We estimate a substantial reduction in the hospitalised burden of pneumococcal pneumonia in all age groups and pneumonia of unspecified cause, empyema and lung abscess in children under 15 years of age since PCV introduction. The increase in unspecified pneumonia in high-risk 65+ year olds may in part reflect their greater susceptibility to develop pneumonia from less pathogenic serotypes that are replacing vaccine types in the nasopharynx.
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Braver, E R; Ferguson, S A; Greene, M A; Lund, A K
1997-11-05
Virtually all new cars now are equipped with passenger air bags. Determining whether passenger air bags are saving lives is important, particularly because passenger air bags have caused some deaths among children and adults. To assess the effectiveness of passenger air bags in reducing the risk of death in frontal crashes for right front passengers. Air bags are designed to protect occupants in frontal crashes. Using Fatality Analysis Reporting System data for calendar years 1992 through 1995, the relative frequency of right front passenger deaths in frontal vs nonfrontal fatal crashes was compared for cars with dual air bags and for cars with driver-only air bags. Odds of right front passengers dying in frontal compared with nonfrontal fatal crashes were computed for 1992 through 1995 model year cars with dual air bags and for cars with driver-only air bags. Percentage reductions in right front passenger deaths in dual air bag vehicles were estimated. Right front passenger fatalities were 18% lower than expected in frontal crashes of cars with dual air bags and 11% lower in all crashes. An estimated 73 fewer than expected right front passengers died in 1992 through 1995 model cars with dual air bags during 1992 through 1995. The risk of frontal crash death for right front passengers in cars with dual air bags was reduced 14% among those reported to be using belts and 23% among belt nonusers. Children younger than 10 years in cars with dual air bags had a 34% increased risk of dying in frontal crashes. Passenger air bags were associated with substantial reductions in fatalities among right front passengers in frontal crashes. However, more children are being killed than are being saved by air bags. Immediate countermeasures to reduce the dangers of air bags to children and adults are suggested.
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Shum, Kenny; Alperin, Peter; Shalnova, Svetlana; Boytsov, Sergey; Kontsevaya, Anna; Vigdorchik, Alexey; Guetz, Adam; Eriksson, Jennifer; Hughes, David
2014-01-01
Objectives Russia faces a high burden of cardiovascular disease. Prevalence of all cardiovascular risk factors, especially hypertension, is high. Elevated blood pressure is generally poorly controlled and medication usage is suboptimal. With a disease-model simulation, we forecast how various treatment programs aimed at increasing blood pressure control would affect cardiovascular outcomes. In addition, we investigated what additional benefit adding lipid control and smoking cessation to blood pressure control would generate in terms of reduced cardiovascular events. Finally, we estimated the direct health care costs saved by treating fewer cardiovascular events. Methods The Archimedes Model, a detailed computer model of human physiology, disease progression, and health care delivery was adapted to the Russian setting. Intervention scenarios of achieving systolic blood pressure control rates (defined as systolic blood pressure <140 mmHg) of 40% and 60% were simulated by modifying adherence rates of an antihypertensive medication combination and compared with current care (23.9% blood pressure control rate). Outcomes of major adverse cardiovascular events; cerebrovascular event (stroke), myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death over a 10-year time horizon were reported. Direct health care costs of strokes and myocardial infarctions were derived from official Russian statistics and tariff lists. Results To achieve systolic blood pressure control rates of 40% and 60%, adherence rates to the antihypertensive treatment program were 29.4% and 65.9%. Cardiovascular death relative risk reductions were 13.2%, and 29.6%, respectively. For the current estimated 43,855,000-person Russian hypertensive population, each control-rate scenario resulted in an absolute reduction of 1.0 million and 2.4 million cardiovascular deaths, and a reduction of 1.2 million and 2.7 million stroke/myocardial infarction diagnoses, respectively. Averted direct costs from current care levels ($7.6 billion [in United States dollars]) were $1.1 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively. PMID:25141122
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High maternal mortality in Jigawa State, Northern Nigeria estimated using the sisterhood method.
Sharma, Vandana; Brown, Willa; Kainuwa, Muhammad Abdullahi; Leight, Jessica; Nyqvist, Martina Bjorkman
2017-06-02
Maternal mortality is extremely high in Nigeria. Accurate estimation of maternal mortality is challenging in low-income settings such as Nigeria where vital registration is incomplete. The objective of this study was to estimate the lifetime risk (LTR) of maternal death and the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Jigawa State, Northern Nigeria using the Sisterhood Method. Interviews with 7,069 women aged 15-49 in 96 randomly selected clusters of communities in 24 Local Government Areas (LGAs) across Jigawa state were conducted. A retrospective cohort of their sisters of reproductive age was constructed to calculate the lifetime risk of maternal mortality. Using most recent estimates of total fertility for the state, the MMR was estimated. The 7,069 respondents reported 10,957 sisters who reached reproductive age. Of the 1,026 deaths in these sisters, 300 (29.2%) occurred during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after delivery. This corresponds to a LTR of 6.6% and an estimated MMR for the study areas of 1,012 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 898-1,126) with a time reference of 2001. Jigawa State has an extremely high maternal mortality ratio underscoring the urgent need for health systems improvement and interventions to accelerate reductions in MMR. The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT01487707 ). Initially registered on December 6, 2011.
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Alendronate for fracture prevention in postmenopause.
Holder, Kathryn K; Kerley, Sara Shelton
2008-09-01
Osteoporosis is an abnormal reduction in bone mass and bone deterioration leading to increased fracture risk. Alendronate (Fosamax) belongs to the bisphosphonate class of drugs, which act to inhibit bone resorption by interfering with the activity of osteoclasts. To assess the effectiveness of alendronate in the primary and secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women. The authors searched Central, Medline, and EMBASE for relevant randomized controlled trials published from 1966 to 2007. The authors undertook study selection and data abstraction in duplicate. The authors performed meta-analysis of fracture outcomes using relative risks, and a relative change greater than 15 percent was considered clinically important. The authors assessed study quality through reporting of allocation concealment, blinding, and withdrawals. Eleven trials representing 12,068 women were included in the review. Relative and absolute risk reductions for the 10-mg dose were as follows. For vertebral fractures, a 45 percent relative risk reduction was found (relative risk [RR] = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.67). This was significant for primary prevention, with a 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.80) and 2 percent absolute risk reduction; and for secondary prevention, with 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.69) and 6 percent absolute risk reduction. For nonvertebral fractures, a 16 percent relative risk reduction was found (RR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.94). This was significant for secondary prevention, with a 23 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.92) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction, but not for primary prevention (RR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.04). There was a 40 percent relative risk reduction in hip fractures (RR = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.92), but only secondary prevention was significant, with a 53 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.85) and a 1 percent absolute risk reduction. The only significance found for wrist fractures was in secondary prevention, with a 50 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.73) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction. For adverse events, the authors found no statistically significant difference in any included study. However, observational data raise concerns about potential risk for upper gastrointestinal injury and, less commonly, osteonecrosis of the jaw. At 10 mg of alendronate per day, clinically important and statistically significant reductions in vertebral, nonvertebral, hip, and wrist fractures were observed for secondary prevention. The authors found no statistically significant results for primary prevention, with the exception of vertebral fractures, for which the reduction was clinically important.
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Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.
Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan
2011-07-01
The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The effect of economic insecurity on mental health: Recent evidence from Australian panel data.
Rohde, Nicholas; Tang, K K; Osberg, Lars; Rao, Prasada
2016-02-01
This paper estimates the impact of economic insecurity on the mental health of Australian adults. Taking microdata from the 2001-2011 HILDA panel survey, we develop a conceptually diverse set of insecurity measures and explore their relationships with the SF-36 mental health index. By using fixed effects models that control for unobservable heterogeneity we produce estimates that correct for endogeneity more thoroughly than previous works. Our results show that exposure to economic risks has small but consistently detrimental mental health effects. The main contribution of the paper however comes from the breadth of risks that are found to be harmful. Job insecurity, financial dissatisfaction, reductions and volatility in income, an inability to meet standard expenditures and a lack of access to emergency funds all adversely affect health. This suggests that the common element of economic insecurity (rather than idiosyncratic phenomena associated with any specific risk) is likely to be hazardous. Our preferred estimates indicate that a standard deviation shock to economic insecurity lowers an individual's mental health score by about 1.4 percentage points. If applied uniformly across the Australian population such a shock would increase the morbidity rate of mental disorders by about 1.7%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Zou, Shimian; Stramer, Susan L; Dodd, Roger Y
2012-04-01
Over the past 20 years, there has been a major increase in the safety of the blood supply, as demonstrated by declining rates of posttransfusion infection and reductions in estimated residual risk for such infections. Reliable estimates of residual risk have been possible within the American Red Cross system because of the availability of a large amount of reliable and consistent data on donations and infectious disease testing results. Among allogeneic blood donations, the prevalence rates of infection markers for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus have decreased over time, although rates for markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus did not. The incidence (/100 000 person-years) of HIV and HCV among repeat donors showed apparent increases from 1.55 and 1.89 in 2000 through 2001 to 2.16 and 2.98 in 2007 through 2008. These observed fluctuations confirm the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation. The residual risk of HIV, HCV, and human T-cell lymphotropic virus among all allogeneic donations is currently below 1 per 1 million donations, and that of hepatitis B surface antigen is close to 1 per 300 000 donations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Models for the Economics of Resilience
Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M.
2016-01-01
Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels. PMID:28133626
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Models for the Economics of Resilience.
Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M
2016-12-01
Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels.
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Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.
van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M
2009-12-05
We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.
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Durand-Zaleski, I; Delaunay, L; Langeron, O; Belda, E; Astier, A; Brun-Buisson, C
1997-03-01
To determine whether the greater daily expense of administering total parenteral nutrition (TPN) via plastic bags changed once daily, compared to glass bottles changed thrice daily, could be offset by savings from a reduction in nosocomial infections. The costs and potential benefits of commercially available TPN bags and TPN in glass containers were compared. Costs were computed from the viewpoint of the hospital, first in a general model and then for two specific examples, Crohn's disease and intensive-care unit (ICU) patients. The extra cost of using bags was $20 per day. The total cost of nosocomial bacteremia was estimated at $6,000. The monetary benefits of using TPN bags were $6,000XT, where XT was the percentage of nosocomial infections averted. We also considered that reduction in intravenous (IV)-line manipulation could reduce bacteremia-related mortality and computed a cost-per-life-saved ratio. Modeling showed that TPN in bags could yield a net benefit when the absolute reduction in the daily risk of nosocomial bacteremia reached the threshold value of 0.3%. Such a reduction could not be attained in patients with Crohn's disease, and corresponded to a 50% to 60% reduction of infection rates in ICU patients. Varying the risk of mortality attributable to IV-line-related infection from 1% to 13% resulted in a cost effectiveness of using TPN bags ranging from $90,000 to $7,000 per life saved in ICU, assuming a two-thirds reduction in IV-line infections, and from $180,000 to $14,000 if the infection rate was reduced by one third. The baseline cost-minimization analysis concluded that the extra cost of TPN bags was not justified by the extra savings. The cost-effectiveness analysis, however, found that the cost per life saved fell within the accepted range of public health interventions, provided a large fraction of infections are averted using TPN bags.
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Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P
2018-01-01
Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Kuhn, Randall; Rothman, Dale S; Turner, Sara; Solórzano, José; Hughes, Barry
2016-01-01
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies have transformed global understanding of health risks by producing comprehensive estimates of attributable disease burden, or the current disease that would be eliminated if a risk factor did not exist. Yet many have noted the greater policy significance of avoidable burden, or the future disease that could actually be eliminated if a risk factor were eliminated today. Avoidable risk may be considerably lower than attributable risk if baseline levels of exposure or disease are declining, or if a risk factor carries lagged effects on disease. As global efforts to deliver clean cookstoves accelerate, a temporal estimation of avoidable risk due to household air pollution (HAP) becomes increasingly important, particularly in light of the rapid uptake of modern stoves and ongoing epidemiologic transitions in regions like South and Southeast Asia. We estimate the avoidable burden associated with HAP using International Futures (IFs), an integrated forecasting system that has been used to model future global disease burdens and risk factors. Building on GBD and other estimates, we integrated a detailed HAP exposure estimation and exposure-response model into IFs. We then conducted a counterfactual experiment in which HAP exposure is reduced to theoretical minimum levels in 2015. We evaluated avoidable mortality and DALY reductions for the years 2015 to 2024 relative to a Base Case scenario in which only endogenous changes occurred. We present results by cause and region, looking at impacts on acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) and four noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). We found that just 2.6% of global DALYs would be averted between 2015 and 2024, compared to 4.5% of global DALYs attributed to HAP in the 2010 GBD study, due in large part to the endogenous tendency towards declining traditional stove usage in the IFs base case forecast. The extent of diminished impact was comparable for ALRI and affected NCDs, though for different reasons. ALRI impacts diminish due to the declining burden of ALRI in the base case forecast, particularly apparent in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Although NCD burdens are rising in regions affected by HAP, the avoidable risk of NCD nonetheless diminishes due to lagged effects. Because the stove transition and the decline of ALRI are proceeding more slowly in Sub-Saharan Africa, avoidable impacts would also be more persistent (3.9% of total DALY due to HAP) compared to South Asia (3.6%) or Southeast Asia (2.5%). Our results illustrate how a temporal dynamic calculation of avoidable risk may yield different estimates, compared to a static attributable risk estimate, of the global and regional burden of disease. Our results suggest a window of rising and falling opportunity for HAP interventions that may have already closed in Southeast Asia and may be closing quickly in South Asia, but may remain open longer in Sub-Saharan Africa. A proper accounting of global health priorities should apply an avoidable risk framework that considers the role of ongoing social, economic and health transitions in constantly altering the disease and risk factor landscape.
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Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.
Preston, R Julian; Boice, John D; Brill, A Bertrand; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Conolly, Rory; Hoffman, F Owen; Hornung, Richard W; Kocher, David C; Land, Charles E; Shore, Roy E; Woloschak, Gayle E
2013-09-01
The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose-rate occupational and perhaps environmental exposures and for exposures to x rays and high-LET radiations used in medicine. The development of models for more reliably combining the epidemiology data with experimental laboratory animal and cellular data can enhance the overall risk assessment approach by providing biologically refined data to strengthen the estimation of effects at low doses as opposed to the sole use of mathematical models of epidemiological data that are primarily driven by medium/high doses. NASA's approach to radiation protection for astronauts, although a unique occupational group, indicates the possible applicability of estimates of risk and their uncertainty in a broader context for developing recommendations on: (1) dose limits for occupational exposure and exposure of members of the public; (2) criteria to limit exposures of workers and members of the public to radon and its short-lived decay products; and (3) the dosimetric quantity (effective dose) used in radiation protection.
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Dydrogesterone does not reverse the cardiovascular benefits of percutaneous estradiol.
Kuba, V M; Teixeira, M A M; Meirelles, R M R; Assumpção, C R L; Costa, O S
2013-02-01
To evaluate the influence of dydrogesterone on estimated cardiovascular risk of users of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) (with percutaneous 17β-estradiol in monotherapy and in combination with dydrogesterone) and HRT non-users through the Framingham score tool for a period of 2 years. Framingham scores were calculated from the medical records of patients treated for at least 2 years with 17β-estradiol alone or in combination with dydrogesterone, along with HRT non-users, through the analysis of patient medical records, followed for at least 2 years at Instituto Estadual de Diabetes e Endocrinologia Luiz Capriglione. Improvements in lipid profile, glucose and blood pressure levels, which reduced the estimated cardiovascular risk, were observed in the 17β-estradiol group. Similar changes were observed in the users of 17β-estradiol + dydrogesterone, suggesting that this progestogen does not attenuate the effects caused by 17β-estradiol. Both HRT groups showed a reduction in their Framingham score. In contrast to data from other HRT investigations on cardiovascular risk, these formulations proved to be safe, even in the first year of use.
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Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.
Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth
2016-02-01
Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis
Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman
2010-01-01
Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462
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Preventing urinary tract infections in early childhood.
Williams, Gabrielle J; Craig, Jonathan C; Carapetis, Jonathan R
2013-01-01
Urinary tract infection (UTI) is common in children, causes them considerable discomfort, as well as distress to parents and has a tendency to recur. Approximately 20% of those children who experience one infection will have a repeat episode. Since 1975, 11 trials of long-term antibiotics compared with placebo or no treatment in 1,550 children have been published. Results have been heterogeneous, but the largest trial demonstrated a small reduction (6% absolute risk reduction, risk ratio 0.65) in the risk of repeat symptomatic UTI over 12 months of treatment. This effect was consistent across sub groups of children based upon age, gender, vesicoureteric reflux status and number of prior infections. Trials involving re-implantation surgery (and antibiotics compared with antibiotics alone) for the sub-group of children with vesicoureteric reflux have not shown a reduction in repeat UTI, with the possible exception of a very small benefit for febrile UTI. Systematic reviews have shown that circumcision reduces the risk of repeat infection but 111 circumcisions would need to be performed to prevent one UTI in unpredisposed boys. Given the need for anaesthesia and the risk of surgical complication, net clinical benefit is probably restricted to those who are predisposed (such as those with recurrent infection). Many small trials in complementary therapies have been published and many suggest some benefit, however inclusion of children is limited. Only three trials involving 394 children for cranberry products, two trials with a total of 252 children for probiotics and one trial with 24 children for vitamin A are published. Estimates of efficacy vary widely and imprecision is evident. Multiple interventions to prevent UTI in children exist. Of those, long-term low dose antibiotics has the strongest evidence base, but the benefit is small. Circumcision in boys reduces the risk substantially, but should be restricted to those at risk. There is little evidence of benefit of re-implantation alone, and the benefit of this procedure over antibiotics alone is very small. Cranberry concentrate is probably effective.
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Lung cancer incidence attributable to residential radon exposure in Alberta in 2012
Grundy, Anne; Brand, Kevin; Khandwala, Farah; Poirier, Abbey; Tamminen, Sierra; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.
2017-01-01
Background: Radon is carcinogenic, and exposure to radon has been shown to increase the risk of lung cancer. The objective of this study was to quantify the proportion and number of lung cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 that could be attributed to residential radon exposure. Methods: We estimated the population attributable risk of lung cancer for residential radon using radon exposure data from the Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes from 2009-2011 and data on all-cause and lung cancer mortality from Statistics Canada from 2008-2012. We used cancer incidence data from the Alberta Cancer Registry for 2012 to estimate the total number of lung cancers attributable to residential radon exposure. Estimates were also stratified by sex and smoking status. Results: The mean geometric residential radon level in Alberta in 2011 was 71.0 Bq/m3 (geometric standard deviation 2.14). Overall, an estimated 16.6% (95% confidence interval 9.4%-29.8%) of lung cancers were attributable to radon exposure, corresponding to 324 excess attributable cancer cases. The estimated population attributable risk of lung cancer due to radon exposure was higher among those who had never smoked (24.8%) than among ever smokers (15.6%). However, since only about 10% of cases of lung cancer occur in nonsmokers, the estimated total number of excess cases was higher for ever smokers (274) than for never smokers (48). Interpretation: With about 17% of lung cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 attributable to residential radon exposure, exposure reduction has the potential to substantially reduce Alberta's lung cancer burden. As such, home radon testing and remediation techniques represent important cancer prevention strategies. PMID:28663187
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Yokokawa, Hirohide; Yuasa, Motoyuki; Nedsuwan, Supalert; Moolphate, Saiyud; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Kitajima, Tsutomu; Minematsu, Kazuo; Tanimura, Susumu; Marui, Eiji
2016-01-01
This cross-sectional study (February 2012 to March 2013) was conducted to estimate daily salt intake and basic characteristics among 793 community-dwelling participants at high risk of cardiovascular disease (Framingham risk score >15%), who had visited diabetes or hypertension clinics at health centres in the Muang district, Chiang Rai, Thailand. We performed descriptive analysis of baseline data and used an automated analyser to estimate the average of 24-hour salt intake estimated from 3 days overnight urine collection. Participants were divided into two groups based on median estimated daily salt intake. Mean age and proportion of males were 65.2 years and 37.6% in the higher salt intake group (>=10.0 g/day, n=362), and 67.5 years and 42.7% in the lower salt intake group (<10.0 g/day, n=431), respectively (p=0.01, p<0.01). The higher salt intake group comprised more patients with a family history of hypertension, antihypertensive drug use, less ideal body mass index (18.5-24.9), higher exercise frequency (>=2 times weekly) and lower awareness of high salt intake. Among higher salt intake participants, those with lower awareness of high salt intake were younger and more often had a family history of hypertension, relative to those with more awareness. Our data indicated that families often share lifestyles involving high salt intake, and discrepancies between actual salt intake and awareness of high salt intake may represent a need for salt reduction intervention aiming at family level. Awareness of actual salt intake should be improved for each family.
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Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Borgomeo, Edoardo; Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad; Hall, Jim W.; Guillod, Benoit P.
2018-03-01
Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes. In this paper, we expand risk-based decision analysis to explore possible ways of enhancing robustness in engineered water resources systems under different risk attitudes. Risk is measured as the expected annual cost of water use restrictions, while robustness is interpreted in the decision-theoretic sense as the ability of a water resource system to maintain performance—expressed as a tolerable risk of water use restrictions—under a wide range of possible future conditions. Linking risk attitudes with robustness allows stakeholders to explicitly trade-off incremental increases in robustness with investment costs for a given level of risk. We illustrate the framework through a case study of London's water supply system using state-of-the -art regional climate simulations to inform the estimation of risk and robustness.
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Using bayesian model to estimate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013
Ainy, Elaheh; Soori, Hamid; Ganjali, Mojtaba; Bahadorimonfared, Ayad
2017-01-01
Background and Aim: A significant social and economic burden inflicts by road traffic injuries (RTIs). We aimed to use Bayesian model, to present the precise method, and to estimate the cost of RTIs in Iran in 2013. Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study on costs resulting from traffic injuries, 846 people per road user were randomly selected and investigated during 3 months (1st September–1st December) in 2013. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for willingness to pay (WTP) method considering perceived risks, especially in Iran. Data were collected along with four scenarios for occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Inclusion criterion was having at least high school education and being in the age range of 18–65 years old; risk perception was an important factor to the study and measured by visual tool. Samples who did not have risk perception were excluded from the study. Main outcome measure was cost estimation of traffic injuries using WTP method. Results: Mean WTP was 2,612,050 internal rate of return (IRR) among these road users. Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 death cases 402,314,106,073,648 IRR, equivalent to 13,410,470,202$ based on the dollar free market rate of 30,000 IRR (purchase power parity). In sum, injury and death cases came to 1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR equivalents to 39,048,341,074$. Moreover, in 2013, costs of traffic accident constituted 6.46% of gross national income, which was 604,300,000,000$. WTP had a significant relationship with age, middle and high income, daily payment to injury reduction, more payment to time reduction, trip mileage, private cars drivers, bus, minibus vehicles, and occupants (P < 0.01). Conclusion: Costs of traffic injuries included noticeable portion of gross national income. If policy-making and resource allocation are made based on the scientific pieces of evidence, an enormous amount of capital can be saved through reducing death and injury rates. PMID:28971031
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Ito, Toshihiro; Kato, Tsuyoshi; Hasegawa, Makoto; Katayama, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Satoshi; Okabe, Satoshi; Sano, Daisuke
2016-12-01
The virus reduction efficiency of each unit process is commonly determined based on the ratio of virus concentration in influent to that in effluent of a unit, but the virus concentration in wastewater has often fallen below the analytical quantification limit, which does not allow us to calculate the concentration ratio at each sampling event. In this study, left-censored datasets of norovirus (genogroup I and II), and adenovirus were used to calculate the virus reduction efficiency in unit processes of secondary biological treatment and chlorine disinfection. Virus concentration in influent, effluent from the secondary treatment, and chlorine-disinfected effluent of four municipal wastewater treatment plants were analyzed by a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) approach, and the probabilistic distributions of log reduction (LR) were estimated by a Bayesian estimation algorithm. The mean values of LR in the secondary treatment units ranged from 0.9 and 2.2, whereas those in the free chlorine disinfection units were from -0.1 and 0.5. The LR value in the secondary treatment was virus type and unit process dependent, which raised the importance for accumulating the data of virus LR values applicable to the multiple-barrier system, which is a global concept of microbial risk management in wastewater reclamation and reuse.
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Effects of dose reduction on bone strength prediction using finite element analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anitha, D.; Subburaj, Karupppasamy; Mei, Kai; Kopp, Felix K.; Foehr, Peter; Noel, Peter B.; Kirschke, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas
2016-12-01
This study aimed to evaluate the effect of dose reduction, by means of tube exposure reduction, on bone strength prediction from finite-element (FE) analysis. Fresh thoracic mid-vertebrae specimens (n = 11) were imaged, using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT), at different intensities of X-ray tube exposures (80, 150, 220 and 500 mAs). Bone mineral density (BMD) was estimated from the mid-slice of each specimen from MDCT images. Differences in image quality and geometry of each specimen were measured. FE analysis was performed on all specimens to predict fracture load. Paired t-tests were used to compare the results obtained, using the highest CT dose (500 mAs) as reference. Dose reduction had no significant impact on FE-predicted fracture loads, with significant correlations obtained with reference to 500 mAs, for 80 mAs (R2 = 0.997, p < 0.001), 150 mAs (R2 = 0.998, p < 0.001) and 220 mAs (R2 = 0.987, p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in volume quantification between the different doses examined. CT imaging radiation dose could be reduced substantially to 64% with no impact on strength estimates obtained from FE analysis. Reduced CT dose will enable early diagnosis and advanced monitoring of osteoporosis and associated fracture risk.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.
2011-06-01
A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US 44 000, US 136 000 and US 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10-1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10-2 yr-1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.
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Restaurant menu labeling laws and alcohol use.
Restrepo, Brandon J; Ali, Mir M
2017-09-01
The goal of this study was to analyze the effect of local and state mandatory restaurant menu labeling laws on alcohol use. Using a difference-in-differences estimation approach and data on adults aged 21 and older (n=2,157,722) from the 2002-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we estimated the effect of menu labeling laws on self-reported consumption of alcoholic beverages in the past month. The regression analysis indicates that on average implementation of menu labeling laws is associated with a 1.2 percentage-point drop in the fraction of survey respondents reporting that they drank an alcoholic beverage in the past month (95% confidence interval=-0.020, -0.004), compared with jurisdictions that had not implemented menu labeling laws. Moreover, we find that the estimated policy effects on alcohol use are larger among men than among women and larger among minorities than among non-Hispanic whites. Further provision of calorie information on foods and beverages in food service establishments, such as through federal menu labeling regulations, may have the potential to lead to a meaningful reduction in alcohol use throughout the U.S. and may result in larger reductions in alcohol use among men and minorities. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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Smed, S; Scarborough, P; Rayner, M; Jensen, J D
2016-06-01
The World Health Organisation recommends governments to consider the use of fiscal policies to promote healthy eating. However, there is very limited evidence of the effect of food taxation in a real-life setting, as most evidence is based on simulation studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the Danish tax on saturated fat in terms of changes in nutritional quality of the diet, that is, changes in saturated fat consumption, as well as other non-targeted dietary measures, and to model the associated changes in mortality for different age groups and genders. On the basis of household scanner data, we estimate the impact of the tax on consumption of saturated fat, unsaturated fat, salt, fruit, vegetables and fibre. The resultant changes in dietary quality are then used as inputs into a comparative risk assessment model (PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl)) to estimate the effect of these changes on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mortality. The tax resulted in a 4.0% reduction in saturated fat intake. Vegetable consumption increased, and salt consumption increased for most individuals, except younger females. We find a modelled reduction in mortality with 123 lives saved annually, 76 of them below 75 years equal to 0.4% of all deaths from NCDs. Modelling the effect of the changes in diet on health outcomes suggests that the saturated fat tax made a positive, but minor, contribution to public health in Denmark.
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A new method for examining the cost savings of reducing COPD exacerbations.
Mapel, Douglas W; Schum, Michael; Lydick, Eva; Marton, Jeno P
2010-01-01
Some treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can reduce exacerbations, and thus could have a favourable impact on overall healthcare costs. To evaluate a new method for assessing the potential cost savings of COPD controller medications based on the incidence of exacerbations and their related resource utilization in the general population. Patients with COPD (n = 1074) enrolled in a regional managed care system in the US were identified using administrative data and divided by their medication use into three groups (salbutamol, ipratropium and salmeterol). Exacerbations were captured using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition (ICD-9) and current procedural terminology (CPT) codes, then logistic regression models were created that described the risk of exacerbations for each comparator group and exacerbation type over a 6-month period. A Monte Carlo simulation was then applied 1000 times to provide the range of potential exacerbation reductions and cost consequences in response to a range of hypothetical examples of COPD controller medications. Exacerbation events for each group could be modelled such that the events predicted by the Monte Carlo estimates were very close to the actual prevalences. The estimated cost per exacerbation avoided depended on the incidence of exacerbation in the various subpopulations, the assumed relative risk reduction, the projected daily cost for new therapy, and the costs of exacerbation treatment. COPD exacerbation events can be accurately modelled from the healthcare utilization data of a defined cohort with sufficient accuracy for cost-effectiveness analysis. Treatments that reduce the risk or severity of exacerbations are likely to be cost effective among those patients who have frequent exacerbations and hospitalizations.
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Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James; Adams Chavula,; Gregory J. Husak,; Harikishan Jayanthi,; Tamuka Magadzire,
2013-01-01
During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.
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A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.
Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon
2011-03-01
Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.
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A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.
Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G
2012-01-30
New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models‡
Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G
2012-01-01
New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:21905066
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Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.
2011-12-01
Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.
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Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony
2018-04-01
In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Taylor-Piliae, Ruth E; Haskell, William L; Froelicher, Erika Sivarajan
2006-06-01
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among older adults worldwide, including Europe, Asia, and North America. In the United States (US), CVD is also the leading cause of death among Asian-Americans. Physical activity has been shown to reduce CVD risk factors. Reduction in blood pressure (BP) in response to Tai Chi (TC) exercise in persons with CVD risk factors have been reported, though not in ethnic Chinese living in the US. Hemodynamic responses to a 12-week community-based TC exercise intervention among ethnic Chinese with CVD risk factors were examined. Quasi-experimental design. Ethnic Chinese > 45 years old with at least 1 major CVD risk factor, living in the San Francisco Bay Area, attended a TC intervention three times a week for 12 weeks. A 2-min step-in-place test assessed aerobic endurance. BP and heart rate were measured at rest, and within 1-min after the step-test. Data were collected at baseline, 6 and 12 weeks. A total of 39 subjects (69% women), 66 +/- 8.3 years old, with hypertension (92%), hypercholesteremia (49%), and/or diabetes (21%), and 1 current smoker participated. Adherence to the intervention was high (87%). Subjects were sedentary at baseline, though had a statistically significant improvement in aerobic endurance over-time (eta2 = 0.39). At baseline, the average BP at rest was 150/86, while BP in response to the step-test was 178/99. Clinically and statistically significant reductions in BP at rest (131/77), and in response to the step-test (164/82) were found over 12 weeks of TC (p < 0.01). No significant change in heart rate was observed. This innovative, culturally relevant, community-based 12-week TC exercise intervention, appealed to Chinese adults with CVD risk factors, with significant reductions in BP and improvement in aerobic endurance. Given the number of persons estimated to have HTN and other CVD risk factors, the identification of new approaches to improve health, combined with risk factor reduction is needed. This is particularly important, given the rise in HTN among adults in the US and the associated public health burden of HTN. TC has the potential to reduce expenditures associated with CVD by facilitating a lifestyle that promotes physical activity, while remaining a low-tech, low-cost alternative to exercise.
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Patients' preferences for ways to communicate benefits of cardiovascular medication.
Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Kenealy, Timothy; Wells, Susan; Arroll, Bruce; Horsburgh, Margaret
2011-01-01
We wanted to determine patients' willingness to take preventive cardiovascular disease (CVD) medication in relation to their 5-year CVD risk score and modes of communicating benefits of therapy. Study participants were 934 consecutive patients drawn from family practitioners' waiting rooms in Auckland, New Zealand, who knew their 5-year CVD risk (ranging from 5% to 30%) and who completed a questionnaire asking them to rate how much various modes of communicating the benefits of therapy would encourage them to take medication daily, where the benefits from medication were proportional to their estimated CVD risk score. Patients' rankings for modes of communicating the benefits of therapy were little influenced by sex, age, ethnicity, numeracy score, 5-year CVD risk, or concern about a heart attack. Patients clearly found relative risk reduction most encouraging, with absolute risk reduction rated second overall and numbers needed to treat the least likely to be persuasive, although preferences covered the full range and were not predictable from demographic or 5-year CVD risk data. Pictures were preferred to numbers by 55.1%, with a people-chart or a bar chart being equally favored. Even so, 61.8% preferred a doctor's opinion to any presentation by numbers or pictures. Patients' willingness to take preventive cardiovascular medication depends more on mode of communicating treatment benefit than on their short-term CVD risk score or their level of concern about a future cardiovascular event. Because individual preferences were not predictable, more than 1 modality is likely to be clinically useful for each patient.