A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

2016-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.88). The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies.

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI).

PubMed

Rizzi, Marco; Ravasio, Veronica; Carobbio, Alessandra; Mattucci, Irene; Crapis, Massimo; Stellini, Roberto; Pasticci, Maria Bruna; Chinello, Pierangelo; Falcone, Marco; Grossi, Paolo; Barbaro, Francesco; Pan, Angelo; Viale, Pierluigi; Durante-Mangoni, Emanuele

2014-04-29

Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery.

Predictive values of D-dimer assay, GRACE scores and TIMI scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Satilmisoglu, Muhammet Hulusi; Ozyilmaz, Sinem Ozbay; Gul, Mehmet; Ak Yildirim, Hayriye; Kayapinar, Osman; Gokturk, Kadir; Aksu, Huseyin; Erkanli, Korhan; Eksik, Abdurrahman

2017-01-01

Purpose To determine the predictive values of D-dimer assay, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients and methods A total of 234 patients (mean age: 57.2±11.7 years, 75.2% were males) hospitalized with NSTEMI were included. Data on D-dimer assay, GRACE and TIMI risk scores were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors predicting increased mortality. Results Median D-dimer levels were 349.5 (48.0–7,210.0) ng/mL, the average TIMI score was 3.2±1.2 and the GRACE score was 90.4±27.6 with high GRACE scores (>118) in 17.5% of patients. The GRACE score was correlated positively with both the D-dimer assay (r=0.215, P=0.01) and TIMI scores (r=0.504, P=0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that higher creatinine levels (odds ratio =18.465, 95% confidence interval: 1.059–322.084, P=0.046) constituted the only significant predictor of increased mortality risk with no predictive values for age, D-dimer assay, ejection fraction, glucose, hemoglobin A1c, sodium, albumin or total cholesterol levels for mortality. Conclusion Serum creatinine levels constituted the sole independent determinant of mortality risk, with no significant values for D-dimer assay, GRACE or TIMI scores for predicting the risk of mortality in NSTEMI patients. PMID:28408834

Metabolomic determinants of metabolic risk in Mexican adolescents

PubMed Central

Perng, Wei; Hector, Emily C.; Song, Peter X.K.; Rojo, Martha Maria Tellez; Raskind, Sasha; Kachman, Maureen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Burant, Charles F.; Peterson, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Objective To identify metabolites associated with metabolic risk, separately by sex, in Mexican adolescents. Methods We carried out untargeted metabolomic profiling on fasting serum of 238 youth age 8–14 years, and identified metabolites associated with a metabolic syndrome risk z-score (MetRisk z-score), separately for boys and girls using the simulation and extrapolation (SIMEX) algorithm. We examined associations of each metabolite with MetRisk z-score using linear regression models that accounted for maternal education, child’s age, and pubertal status. Results Of the 938 features identified in metabolomics analysis, 7 named compounds (of 27 identified metabolites) were associated with MetRisk z-score in girls, and 3 named compounds (of 14 identified) were associated with MetRisk z-score in boys. In girls, diacylglycerol (DG) 16:0/16:0, 1,3-dielaidin, myo-inositol, and urate corresponded with higher MetRisk z-score, whereas N-acetylglycine, thymine, and dodecenedioic acid were associated with lower MetRisk z-score. For example, each z-score increment in DG 16:0/16:0 corresponded with 0.60 (0.47, 0.74). In boys, we found positive associations of DG 16:0/16:0, tyrosine, and 5′-methylthioadenosine with MetRisk z-score. Conclusions Metabolites on lipid, amino acid, and carbohydrate metabolism pathways are associated with metabolic risk in girls. Compounds on lipid and DNA pathways correspond with metabolic risk in boys. PMID:28758362

The correlation between highly sensitive C-reactive protein levels and erectile function among men with late-onset hypogonadism.

PubMed

Shigehara, Kazuyoshi; Konaka, Hiroyuki; Ijima, Masashi; Nohara, Takahiro; Narimoto, Kazutaka; Izumi, Koji; Kadono, Yoshifumi; Kitagawa, Yasuhide; Mizokami, Atsushi; Namiki, Mikio

2016-12-01

We investigated the correlation between highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels and erectile function, and assessed the clinical role of hs-CRP levels in men with late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) syndrome. For 77 participants, we assessed Sexual Health Inventory for men (SHIM) score, Aging Male Symptoms (AMS) score and International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). We also evaluated free testosterone (FT), hs-CRP, total cholesterol, triglyceride levels, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, body mass index, waist size and blood pressure. We attempted to identify parameters correlated with SHIM score and to determine the factors affecting cardiovascular risk based on hs-CRP levels. A Spearman rank correlation test revealed that age, AMS score, IPSS and hs-CRP levels were significantly correlated with SHIM score. Age-adjusted analysis revealed that hs-CRP and IPSS were the independent factors affecting SHIM score (r= -0.304 and -0.322, respectively). Seventeen patients belonged to the moderate to high risk group for cardiovascular disease, whereas the remaining 60 belonged to the low risk group. Age, FT value and SHIM score showed significant differences between the two groups. A multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that SHIM score was an independent factor affecting cardiovascular risk (OR: 0.796; 95%CI: 0.637-0.995).

A Retrospective Analysis of Pressure Ulcer Incidence and Modified Braden Scale Score Risk Classifications.

PubMed

Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

2015-09-01

The Braden Scale is the most widely used pressure ulcer risk assessment in the world, but the currently used 5 risk classification groups do not accurately discriminate among their risk categories. To optimize risk classification based on Braden Scale scores, a retrospective analysis of all consecutively admitted patients in an acute care facility who were at risk for pressure ulcer development was performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Predicted pressure ulcer incidence first was calculated by logistic regression model based on original Braden score. Risk classification then was modified based on the predicted pressure ulcer incidence and compared between different risk categories in the modified (3-group) classification and the traditional (5-group) classification using chi-square test. Two thousand, six hundred, twenty-five (2,625) patients (mean age 59.8 ± 16.5, range 1 month to 98 years, 1,601 of whom were men) were included in the study; 81 patients (3.1%) developed a pressure ulcer. The predicted pressure ulcer incidence ranged from 0.1% to 49.7%. When the predicted pressure ulcer incidence was greater than 10.0% (high risk), the corresponding Braden scores were less than 11; when the predicted incidence ranged from 1.0% to 10.0% (moderate risk), the corresponding Braden scores ranged from 12 to 16; and when the predicted incidence was less than 1.0% (mild risk), the corresponding Braden scores were greater than 17. In the modified classification, observed pressure ulcer incidence was significantly different between each of the 3 risk categories (P less than 0.05). However, in the traditional classification, the observed incidence was not significantly different between the high-risk category and moderate-risk category (P less than 0.05) and between the mild-risk category and no-risk category (P less than 0.05). If future studies confirm the validity of these findings, pressure ulcer prevention protocols of care based on Braden Scale scores can be simplified.

Practical, transparent prospective risk analysis for the clinical laboratory.

PubMed

Janssens, Pim Mw

2014-11-01

Prospective risk analysis (PRA) is an essential element in quality assurance for clinical laboratories. Practical approaches to conducting PRA in laboratories, however, are scarce. On the basis of the classical Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method, an approach to PRA was developed for application to key laboratory processes. First, the separate, major steps of the process under investigation are identified. Scores are then given for the Probability (P) and Consequence (C) of predefined types of failures and the chances of Detecting (D) these failures. Based on the P and C scores (on a 10-point scale), an overall Risk score (R) is calculated. The scores for each process were recorded in a matrix table. Based on predetermined criteria for R and D, it was determined whether a more detailed analysis was required for potential failures and, ultimately, where risk-reducing measures were necessary, if any. As an illustration, this paper presents the results of the application of PRA to our pre-analytical and analytical activities. The highest R scores were obtained in the stat processes, the most common failure type in the collective process steps was 'delayed processing or analysis', the failure type with the highest mean R score was 'inappropriate analysis' and the failure type most frequently rated as suboptimal was 'identification error'. The PRA designed is a useful semi-objective tool to identify process steps with potential failures rated as risky. Its systematic design and convenient output in matrix tables makes it easy to perform, practical and transparent. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Global Risk Score and Clinical SYNTAX Score as Predictors of Clinical Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Unprotected Left Main Percutaneous Catheter Intervention

PubMed Central

Cuenza, Lucky; Collado, Marianne P.; Ho Khe Sui, James

2017-01-01

Background Risk stratification is an important component of left main percutaneous catheter intervention (PCI) which has emerged as a feasible alternative to cardiac surgery. We sought to compare the clinical SYNTAX score and the global risk score in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing unprotected left main PCI in our institution. Methods Clinical, angiographic and procedural characteristics of 92 patients who underwent unprotected left main PCI (mean age 62 ± 12.1 years) were analyzed. Patients were risk stratified into tertiles of high, intermediate and low risk using the global risk score (GRS) and the clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) and were prospectively followed up at 1 year for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as a composite of all cause mortality, cardiac mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary artery bypass, and target vessel revascularization. Results There were 26 (28.2%) who experienced MACEs, of which 10 (10.8%) patients died. Multivariable hazards analysis showed that the GRS (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.5, P = 0.001) and CSS (HR = 4.3, P = 0.001) were both independent predictors of MACEs. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed higher incidence of MACEs with the intermediate and higher risk categories compared to those classified as low risk. Receiver-operator characteristic analysis showed that the GRS has better discriminatory ability than the CSS in the prediction of 1 year MACEs (0.891 vs. 0.743, P = 0.007). Conclusion The GRS and CSS are predictive of outcomes after left main PCI. The GRS appears to have superior predictive and prognostic utility compared to the CSS. This study emphasizes the importance of combining both anatomic and clinical variables for optimum prognostication and management decisions in left main PCI. PMID:29317974

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

PubMed

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for predicting ischemic stroke among East Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xiong, Qinmei; Chen, Sisi; Senoo, Keitaro; Proietti, Marco; Hong, Kui; Lip, Gregory Y H

2015-09-15

Both the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-validated in Western populations for predicting risk of stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). There is some uncertainty as to which risk score is best to guide optimal anticoagulant therapy among Asian populations with AF. A systemic literature search of Cochrane library, Scopus, and PubMed databases was conducted using search terms: atrial fibrillation, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. Stroke/thromboembolism (TE) outcome events at low, moderate, and high risk groups were compared in relation to both scores. Statistical analyses were performed using Revman 5.3 software. 493 records were retrieved, of which 6 cohort studies focusing on patients from Asian regions were finally appraised and included. Absolute event rates were usually lower when patients were categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc of 0-1, rather than CHADS2 of 0-1, respectively. Meta-analysis revealed that when compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, there was a 1.71-fold elevated risk of stroke when patients were stratified as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score = 0, or a 1.40-fold increase with a CHADS2 score = 1. A 1.19-fold elevated event rate was observed among CHADS2 score ≥ 2 compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, but the total stroke/TE events were numerically higher in patients categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 2. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is superior to the CHADS2 score in identifying 'low risk' East Asian AF patients. Rather than a categorical approach, Asian guidelines should adopt a 2 step approach, by initially identifying the truly low risk patients, following which effective stroke prevention can be offered to those with ≥ 1 additional stroke risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T

2017-09-01

A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Longitudinal associations between BMI, waist circumference, and cardiometabolic risk in US youth: monitoring implications.

PubMed

Jago, R; Mendoza, J A; Chen, T; Baranowski, T

2013-03-01

This study examined whether change in body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference (WC) is associated with change in cardiometabolic risk factors and differences between cardiovascular disease specific and diabetes specific risk factors among adolescents. We also sought to examine any differences by gender or baseline body mass status. The article is a longitudinal analysis of pre- and post-data collected in the HEALTHY trial. Participants were 4,603 ethnically diverse adolescents who provided complete data at 6th and 8th grade assessments. The main outcome measures were percent change in the following cardiometabolic risk factors: fasting triglycerides, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose as well as a clustered metabolic risk score. Main exposures were change in BMI or WC z-score. Models were run stratified by gender; secondary models were additionally stratified by baseline BMI group (normal, overweight, or obese). Analysis showed that when cardiometabolic risk factors were treated as continuous variables, there was strong evidence (P < 0.001) that change in BMI z-score was associated with change in the majority of the cardiovascular risk factors, except fasting glucose and the combined risk factor score for both boys and girls. There was some evidence that change in WC z-score was associated with some cardiovascular risk factors, but change in WC z-score was consistently associated with changes in fasting glucose. In conclusion, routine monitoring of BMI should be continued by health professionals, but additional information on disease risk may be provided by assessing WC. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

A simple scoring system for predicting early major complications in spine surgery: the cumulative effect of age and size of surgery.

PubMed

Brasil, Albert Vincent Berthier; Teles, Alisson R; Roxo, Marcelo Ricardo; Schuster, Marcelo Neutzling; Zauk, Eduardo Ballverdu; Barcellos, Gabriel da Costa; Costa, Pablo Ramon Fruett da; Ferreira, Nelson Pires; Kraemer, Jorge Luiz; Ferreira, Marcelo Paglioli; Gobbato, Pedro Luis; Worm, Paulo Valdeci

2016-10-01

To analyze the cumulative effect of risk factors associated with early major complications in postoperative spine surgery. Retrospective analysis of 583 surgically-treated patients. Early "major" complications were defined as those that may lead to permanent detrimental effects or require further significant intervention. A balanced risk score was built using multiple logistic regression. Ninety-two early major complications occurred in 76 patients (13%). Age > 60 years and surgery of three or more levels proved to be significant independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. The balanced scoring system was defined as: 0 points (no risk factor), 2 points (1 factor) or 4 points (2 factors). The incidence of early major complications in each category was 7% (0 points), 15% (2 points) and 29% (4 points) respectively. This balanced scoring system, based on two risk factors, represents an important tool for both surgical indication and for patient counseling before surgery.

Theory-Driven Longitudinal Study Exploring Indoor Tanning Initiation in Teens Using a Person-Centered Approach

PubMed Central

Hillhouse, Joel; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J.; Scaglione, Nichole M.; Baker, Katie; Florence, L. Carter

2015-01-01

Background Younger indoor tanning initiation leads to greater melanoma risk due to more frequent and persistent behavior. Despite this, there are no published studies exploring the predictors of indoor tanning initiation in teen populations. Purpose This longitudinal study uses latent profile analysis to examine indoor tanning initiation in indoor tanning risk subgroups from a national sample of female adolescents. Methods Latent profile analysis used indoor tanning beliefs and perceptions to identify indoor tanning initiation risk subgroups. The teens in each subgroup were reassessed on indoor tanning initiation after a year. Results Three subgroups were identified: a low-risk, Anti-Tanning subgroup (18.6%) characterized by low scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; a moderate-risk Aware Social Tanner subgroup (47.2%) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales but also high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; and a high-risk Risky Relaxation Tanner subgroup (34.2%) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and low scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers. Teens in the Aware Social Tanner and Risky Relaxation Tanner subgroups were significantly more likely to initiate indoor tanning in the following year. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to identify teens at risk for indoor tanning initiation and develop tailored interventions that will move them to the lowest risk subgroup. Subgroup correlates suggest parent and peer-based interventions may be successful. PMID:26370893

Theory-Driven Longitudinal Study Exploring Indoor Tanning Initiation in Teens Using a Person-Centered Approach.

PubMed

Hillhouse, Joel; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J; Scaglione, Nichole M; Baker, Katie; Florence, L Carter

2016-02-01

Younger indoor tanning initiation leads to greater melanoma risk due to more frequent and persistent behavior. Despite this, there are no published studies exploring the predictors of indoor tanning initiation in teen populations. This longitudinal study uses latent profile analysis to examine indoor tanning initiation in indoor tanning risk subgroups from a national sample of female adolescents. Latent profile analysis used indoor tanning beliefs and perceptions to identify indoor tanning initiation risk subgroups. The teens in each subgroup were reassessed on indoor tanning initiation after a year. Three subgroups were identified: a low risk, anti-tanning subgroup (18.6 %) characterized by low scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; a moderate risk aware social tanner subgroup (47.2 %) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales but also high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; and a high risk risky relaxation tanner subgroup (34.2 %) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and low scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers. Teens in the aware social tanner and risky relaxation tanner subgroups were significantly more likely to initiate indoor tanning in the following year. These findings highlight the need to identify teens at risk for indoor tanning initiation and develop tailored interventions that will move them to the lowest risk subgroup. Subgroup correlates suggest parent and peer-based interventions may be successful.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

The utility of diabetes risk score items as predictors of incident type 2 diabetes in Asian populations: An evidence-based review.

PubMed

Hu, Pei Lin; Koh, Yi Ling Eileen; Tan, Ngiap Chuan

2016-12-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is rising, with many Asian countries featured in the top 10 countries with the highest numbers of persons with diabetes. Reliable diabetes risk scores enable the identification of individuals at risk of developing diabetes for early intervention. This article aims to identify common risk factors in the risk scores with the highest discrimination; factors with the most influence on the risk score in Asian populations, and to propose a set of factors translatable to the multi-ethnic Singapore population. A systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify studies published before August 2016 that developed risk prediction models for incident diabetes. 12 studies were identified. Risk scores that included laboratory measurements had better discrimination. Coefficient analysis showed fasting glucose and HbA1c having the greatest impact on the risk score. A proposed Asian risk score would include: family history of diabetes, age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. Future research is required on the influence of ethnicity in Singapore. The risk score may potentially be used to stratify individuals for enrolment into diabetes prevention programmes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Study of the Factors Associated with Risk for Development of Pressure Ulcers: A Longitudinal Analysis.

PubMed

Thomas, Elizebeth; Vinodkumar, Sudhaya; Mathew, Silvia; Setia, Maninder Singh

2015-01-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are prevalent in hospitalized patients; they may cause clinical, psychological, and economic problems in these patients. Previous studies are cross-sectional, have used pooled data, or cox-regression models to assess the risk for developing PU. However, PU risk scores change over time and models that account for time varying variables are useful for cohort analysis of data. The present longitudinal study was conducted to compare the risk of PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients, and to evaluate the factors associated with the development of these ulcers over a period of time. We evaluated 290 hospitalized patients over a 4 months period. The main outcomes for our analysis were: (1) Score on the pressure risk assessment scale; and (2) the proportion of individuals who were at severe risk for developing PUs. We used random effects models for longitudinal analysis of the data. The mean PU score was significantly higher in the nonsurgical patients compared with surgical patients at baseline (15.23 [3.86] vs. 9.33 [4.57]; P < 0.01). About 7% of the total patients had a score of >20 at baseline and were considered as being at high-risk for PU; the proportion was significantly higher among the nonsurgical patients compared with the surgical patients (14% vs. 4%, P = 0.003). In the adjusted models, there was no difference for severe risk for PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-12.80). An additional day in the ward was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being at high-risk for PU (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.16-1.86). There were no significant differences between patients who were admitted for surgery compared with those who were not. An additional day in the ward, however, is important for developing a high-risk score for PU on the monitoring scale, and these patients require active interventions.

Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun, E-mail: skye@kfsyscc.org; Clinical Research Office, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina

2013-03-15

Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results:more » The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.« less

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

PubMed Central

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-01-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C. Raina

2017-01-01

Abstract The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response. PMID:28810081

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in Pediatric Trauma Patients and Validation of a Novel Scoring System: The Risk of Clots in Kids with Trauma (ROCKIT score)

PubMed Central

Yen, Jennifer; Van Arendonk, Kyle J.; Streiff, Michael B.; McNamara, LeAnn; Stewart, F. Dylan; Conner G, Kim G; Thompson, Richard E.; Haut, Elliott R.; Takemoto, Clifford M.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES Identify risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) and develop a VTE risk assessment model for pediatric trauma patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS We performed a retrospective review of patients 21 years and younger who were hospitalized following traumatic injuries at the John Hopkins level 1 adult and pediatric trauma center (1987-2011). The clinical characteristics of patients with and without VTE were compared, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE. Weighted risk assessment scoring systems were developed based on these and previously identified factors from patients in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB 2008-2010); the scoring systems were validated in this cohort from Johns Hopkins as well as a cohort of pediatric admissions from the NTDB (2011-2012). MAIN RESULTS Forty-nine of 17,366 pediatric trauma patients (0.28%) were diagnosed with VTE after admission to our trauma center. After adjusting for potential confounders, VTE was independently associated with older age, surgery, blood transfusion, higher Injury Severity Score (ISS), and lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score. These and additional factors were identified in 402,329 pediatric patients from the NTDB from 2008-2010; independent risk factors from the logistic regression analysis of this NTDB cohort were selected and incorporated into weighted risk assessment scoring systems. Two models were developed and were cross-validated in 2 separate pediatric trauma cohorts: 1) 282,535 patients in the NTDB from 2011 to 2012 2) 17,366 patients from Johns Hopkins. The receiver operator curve using these models in the validation cohorts had area under the curves that ranged 90% to 94%. CONCLUSIONS VTE is infrequent after trauma in pediatric patients. We developed weighted scoring systems to stratify pediatric trauma patients at risk for VTE. These systems may have potential to guide risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis in children after trauma. PMID:26963757

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). Results There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Conclusions Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery. PMID:24779617

A Scoring System to Determine Risk of Delayed Bleeding After Endoscopic Mucosal Resection of Large Colorectal Lesions.

PubMed

Albéniz, Eduardo; Fraile, María; Ibáñez, Berta; Alonso-Aguirre, Pedro; Martínez-Ares, David; Soto, Santiago; Gargallo, Carla Jerusalén; Ramos Zabala, Felipe; Álvarez, Marco Antonio; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Joaquín; Múgica, Fernando; Nogales, Óscar; Herreros de Tejada, Alberto; Redondo, Eduardo; Guarner-Argente, Carlos; Pin, Noel; León-Brito, Helena; Pardeiro, Remedios; López-Roses, Leopoldo; Rodríguez-Téllez, Manuel; Jiménez, Alejandra; Martínez-Alcalá, Felipe; García, Orlando; de la Peña, Joaquín; Ono, Akiko; Alberca de Las Parras, Fernando; Pellisé, María; Rivero, Liseth; Saperas, Esteban; Pérez-Roldán, Francisco; Pueyo Royo, Antonio; Eguaras Ros, Javier; Zúñiga Ripa, Alba; Concepción-Martín, Mar; Huelin-Álvarez, Patricia; Colán-Hernández, Juan; Cubiella, Joaquín; Remedios, David; Bessa I Caserras, Xavier; López-Viedma, Bartolomé; Cobian, Julyssa; González-Haba, Mariano; Santiago, José; Martínez-Cara, Juan Gabriel; Valdivielso, Eduardo

2016-08-01

After endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) of colorectal lesions, delayed bleeding is the most common serious complication, but there are no guidelines for its prevention. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with delayed bleeding that required medical attention after discharge until day 15 and develop a scoring system to identify patients at risk. We performed a prospective study of 1214 consecutive patients with nonpedunculated colorectal lesions 20 mm or larger treated by EMR (n = 1255) at 23 hospitals in Spain, from February 2013 through February 2015. Patients were examined 15 days after the procedure, and medical data were collected. We used the data to create a delayed bleeding scoring system, and assigned a weight to each risk factor based on the β parameter from multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients were classified as being at low, average, or high risk for delayed bleeding. Delayed bleeding occurred in 46 cases (3.7%, 95% confidence interval, 2.7%-4.9%). In multivariate analysis, factors associated with delayed bleeding included age ≥75 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; P < .01), American Society of Anesthesiologist classification scores of III or IV (OR, 1.90; P ≤ .05), aspirin use during EMR (OR, 3.16; P < .05), right-sided lesions (OR, 4.86; P < .01), lesion size ≥40 mm (OR, 1.91; P ≤ .05), and a mucosal gap not closed by hemoclips (OR, 3.63; P ≤ .01). We developed a risk scoring system based on these 6 variables that assigned patients to the low-risk (score, 0-3), average-risk (score, 4-7), or high-risk (score, 8-10) categories with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.83). In these groups, the probabilities of delayed bleeding were 0.6%, 5.5%, and 40%, respectively. The risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions is 3.7%. We developed a risk scoring system based on 6 factors that determined the risk for delayed bleeding (receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.77). The factors most strongly associated with delayed bleeding were right-sided lesions, aspirin use, and mucosal defects not closed by hemoclips. Patients considered to be high risk (score, 8-10) had a 40% probability of delayed bleeding. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

2016-04-01

The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

Proposal for a new categorization of aseptic processing facilities based on risk assessment scores.

PubMed

Katayama, Hirohito; Toda, Atsushi; Tokunaga, Yuji; Katoh, Shigeo

2008-01-01

Risk assessment of aseptic processing facilities was performed using two published risk assessment tools. Calculated risk scores were compared with experimental test results, including environmental monitoring and media fill run results, in three different types of facilities. The two risk assessment tools used gave a generally similar outcome. However, depending on the tool used, variations were observed in the relative scores between the facilities. For the facility yielding the lowest risk scores, the corresponding experimental test results showed no contamination, indicating that these ordinal testing methods are insufficient to evaluate this kind of facility. A conventional facility having acceptable aseptic processing lines gave relatively high risk scores. The facility showing a rather high risk score demonstrated the usefulness of conventional microbiological test methods. Considering the significant gaps observed in calculated risk scores and in the ordinal microbiological test results between advanced and conventional facilities, we propose a facility categorization based on risk assessment. The most important risk factor in aseptic processing is human intervention. When human intervention is eliminated from the process by advanced hardware design, the aseptic processing facility can be classified into a new risk category that is better suited for assuring sterility based on a new set of criteria rather than on currently used microbiological analysis. To fully benefit from advanced technologies, we propose three risk categories for these aseptic facilities.

Ischemic Stroke Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score of 1: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Joundi, Raed A; Cipriano, Lauren E; Sposato, Luciano A; Saposnik, Gustavo

2016-05-01

The CHA2DS2-VASc score aims to improve risk stratification of ischemic stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation to identify those who can safely forego oral anticoagulation. Oral anticoagulation treatment guidelines remain uncertain for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk of ischemic stroke for patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, 1, or 2 not treated with oral anticoagulation. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science from the start of the database up until April 15, 2015. We included studies that stratified the risk of ischemic stroke by CHA2DS2-VASc score for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. We estimated the summary annual rate of ischemic stroke using random effects meta-analyses and compared the estimated stroke rates with published net-benefit thresholds for initiating anticoagulants. 1162 abstracts were retrieved, of which 10 met all inclusion criteria for the study. There was substantial heterogeneity among studies. The summary estimate for the annual risk of ischemic stroke was 1.61% (95% confidence interval 0%-3.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, meeting the theoretical threshold for using novel oral anticoagulants (0.9%), but below the threshold for warfarin (1.7%). The summary incident risk of ischemic stroke was 0.68% (95% confidence interval 0.12%-1.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 and 2.49% (95% confidence interval 1.16%-3.83%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2. Our meta-analysis of ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients suggests that those with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 may be considered for a novel oral anticoagulant, but because of high heterogeneity, the decision should be based on individual patient characteristics. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

An analysis of key environmental and social risks in the development of concentrated solar power projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otieno, George A.; Loosen, Alexander E.

2016-05-01

Concentrated Solar Power projects have impacts on local environment and social conditions. This research set out to investigate the environmental and social risks in the development of such projects and rank these risks from highest to lowest. The risks were analysed for parabolic trough and tower technologies only. A literature review was undertaken, identifying seventeen risks that were then proposed to six CSP experts for scoring. The risks were scored based of five factors on a five tier scale. The scores from the experts were compiled to develop an overall rank of the identified risks. The risk of disruption of local water resources was found to represent the highest risk before and after mitigation with a score of moderate-high and moderate respectively. This score is linked to the importance of water in water scarce regions typified by the best regions for CSP. The risks to avian species, to worker health and safety, due to noise on the environment, to visual and recreational resources completed the top five risks after mitigation.

Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

PubMed

Vink, Jacqueline M; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; de Geus, Eco J C; Willemsen, Gonneke; Neale, Michael C; Furberg, Helena; Boomsma, Dorret I

2014-07-01

A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Summary-level P-values were available for smoking initiation, age at onset of smoking, cigarettes per day and smoking cessation from the Tobacco and Genetics Consortium (n between 22,000 and 70,000 subjects). Using different P-value thresholds (0.1, 0.2 and 0.5) from the meta-analysis, sets of 'risk alleles' were defined and used to generate a polygenic risk score (weighted sum of the alleles) for each subject in an independent target sample from the Netherlands Twin Register (n = 1583). The association between polygenic smoking scores and alcohol/cannabis use was investigated with regression analysis. The polygenic scores for 'cigarettes per day' were associated significantly with the number of glasses alcohol per week (P = 0.005, R2 = 0.4-0.5%) and cannabis initiation (P = 0.004, R2 = 0.6-0.9%). The polygenic scores for 'age at onset of smoking' were associated significantly with 'age at regular drinking' (P = 0.001, R2 = 1.1-1.5%), while the scores for 'smoking initiation' and 'smoking cessation' did not significantly predict alcohol or cannabis use. Smoking, alcohol and cannabis use are influenced by aggregated genetic risk factors shared between these substances. The many common genetic variants each have a very small individual effect size. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

A comparison of the burden and resultant risk associated with occupational falls from a height and on the same level in Australia.

PubMed

Mangharam, Jean; Moorin, Rachael; Straker, Leon

2016-12-01

Occupational falls are one of the leading causes of occupational injury and death internationally. This study described the nature of occupational falls following an analysis of workers compensation data in Western Australia. Frequencies, proportions and incidence rates were calculated following mechanism, gender, age and industry stratification. The natures of injury and bodily locations affected were compared between mechanisms of fall. Industry incidence rates were ranked and their corresponding proportions reported. Cost and lost time were described and risk scores for each burden type (incapacity, cost and lost time) were calculated and compared between fall mechanisms. Of all occupational falls, the proportion, incidence rates and risk scores of falls on same level were consistently greater compared to falls from a height. Gender, age and industry groups that appear to be at highest risk vary with the measure used and mechanism of incident. This study translates epidemiological information into a risk score that can aid in prioritisation. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents an in-depth analysis of Worker's Compensation claims for falls in Western Australia. Calculated proportion, incidence rates and formulated risk scores for falls on the level were consistently greater compared to falls from a height. Limitations associated with the analysis of large-scale data-sets are described.

A comparison of two prospective risk analysis methods: Traditional FMEA and a modified healthcare FMEA.

PubMed

Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2016-12-01

To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.

Risk Scores for Occult Cancer in Patients with Venous Thromboembolism: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Hokusai-VTE Study.

PubMed

Kraaijpoel, Noémie; van Es, Nick; Raskob, Gary E; Büller, Harry R; Carrier, Marc; Zhang, George; Lin, Min; Grosso, Michael A; Di Nisio, Marcello

2018-06-04

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) may be the first sign of an undiagnosed cancer. In patients with unprovoked VTE, the risk is approximately 5% in the year following VTE diagnosis. Cancer-specific screening is therefore often considered in these patients, but the optimal screening strategy remains controversial. Recently, two risk classification scores have been proposed that may help in identifying patients at high risk of occult cancer in whom extensive screening may be warranted. In the present post hoc analysis of the Hokusai-VTE study, we evaluated the performance of the Registro Informatizado de Pacientes con Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) and Screening for Occult Malignancy in Patients with Idiopathic Venous Thromboembolism (SOME) scores for occult cancer in patients with acute VTE. A total of 8,032 patients were included in the analysis of whom 218 (2.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-3.1) developed cancer between 30-day and 12-month follow-up. The c -statistics of the RIETE and SOME scores were 0.62 (95% CI, 0.57-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.55-0.62), respectively. In patients classified as 'high risk', the cumulative incidence of cancer diagnosis during follow-up was 2.9% (95% CI, 2.1-3.9) for the RIETE score and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.9-3.7) for the SOME score, corresponding to hazard ratios of 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.5) and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.04-2.2), respectively. In conclusion, the performance of both scores was poor. When used dichotomously, the scores were able to identify a group of patients with a significantly higher risk of occult cancer, although it remains unknown whether this translates into improved clinical important outcomes. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between CHA2DS2-VASc score and atrial electromechanical function in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: A pilot study.

PubMed

Vatan, Mehmet Bülent; Yılmaz, Sabiye; Ağaç, Mustafa Tarık; Çakar, Mehmet Akif; Erkan, Hakan; Aksoy, Murat; Demirtas, Saadet; Varım, Ceyhun; Akdemir, Ramazan; Gündüz, Hüseyin

2015-11-01

CHA2DS2-VASc score is the most widely preferred method for prediction of stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized that CHA2DS2-VASc score may represent atrial remodeling status, and therefore echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical remodeling can be used to identify patients with high risk. A total of 65 patients who had documented diagnosis of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) were divided into three risk groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score: patients with low risk (score=0, group 1), with moderate risk (score=1, group 2), and with high risk score (score ≥2, group 3). We compared groups according to atrial electromechanical intervals and left atrium mechanical functions. Atrial electromechanical intervals including inter-atrial and intra-atrial electromechanical delay were not different between groups. However, parameters reflecting atrial mechanical functions including LA phasic volumes (Vmax, Vmin and Vp) were significantly higher in groups 2 and 3 compared with group 1. Likewise, LA passive emptying volume (LATEV) in the groups 2 and 3 was significantly higher than low-risk group (14.12±8.13ml/m(2), 22.36±8.78ml/m(2), 22.89±7.23ml/m(2), p: 0.031). Univariate analysis demonstrated that Vmax, Vmin and Vp were significantly correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score (r=0.428, r=0.456, r=0.451 and p<0.001). Also, LATEV (r=0.397, p=0.016) and LA active emptying volume (LAAEV) (r=0.281, p=0.023) were positively correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score. In the ROC analysis, Vmin≥11ml/m(2) has the highest predictive value for CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (88% sensitivity and 89% specificity; ROC area 0.88, p<0.001, CI [0.76-0.99]). Echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical function might represent a useful method to identify patients with high risk. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Background: Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. Method: We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m2), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Results: Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients. PMID:25356178

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

Pneumonia risks in bedridden patients receiving oral care and their screening tool: Malnutrition and urinary tract infection-induced inflammation.

PubMed

Matsusaka, Kaoru; Kawakami, Genichiro; Kamekawa, Hatsumi; Momma, Haruki; Nagatomi, Ryoichi; Itoh, Jun; Yamaya, Mutsuo

2018-05-01

Pneumonia develops in bedridden patients even when they are receiving oral care. However, the pneumonia risk in bedridden patients remains unclear, and no screening tool has been developed to assess this risk by using daily hospital data. We retrospectively examined pneumonia risk factors by analyzing the records of 102 bedridden patients receiving oral care. Body mass index, peripheral blood hemoglobin, and serum concentrations of total protein, albumin, total cholesterol and uric acid in the pneumonia group (n = 51; mean age 73.4 years) were lower than those in the non-pneumonia group (n = 51; mean age 68.1 years). In the univariate analysis, body mass index; leukocytosis; high C-reactive protein; low levels of hemoglobin, total protein and albumin (<3.5 g/dL); and urine bacteria were associated with the development of pneumonia. Furthermore, in the multivariate analysis, low levels of albumin and urine bacteria were independently associated with pneumonia. We developed a bedridden patient pneumonia risk (BPPR) score using these two risk factors to assess pneumonia risk. We applied scores of zero (0) or one (1) according to the absence or presence of the two risk factors and summed the scores in each patient. The proportion of pneumonia patients increased with increasing BPPR score when the patients were divided into three groups - low, moderate and high risk - according to the BPPR score (0, 1 or 2, respectively). Malnutrition, urinary tract infection-induced inflammation and anemia were associated with pneumonia in bedridden patients. BPPR scoring might be useful for assessing pneumonia risk and managing affected patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 714-722. © 2018 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Prognostic discrimination for early chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia in imatinib era: comparison of Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores in Korean population.

PubMed

Yahng, Seung-Ah; Jang, Eun-Jung; Choi, Soo-Young; Lee, Sung-Eun; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Dong-Wook

2014-08-01

Beyond the conventional Sokal and Euro scores, a new prognostic risk classification, based on the European Treatment Outcome Study (EUTOS), has been developed to predict the outcome of treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the present study, each risk score was validated by various endpoints in 206 Korean patients with early chronic-phase CML treated with up-front standard dose imatinib. In our analysis, all three scores were found to be valid. The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was significantly discriminated using Sokal (P = 0.002), Euro (P = 0.003), and EUTOS (P = 0.029), with the worst probability by Euro high-risk (62 vs. 49 vs. 67 %) and better EFS in Sokal low-risk (89 vs. 86 vs. 82 %). Combining all scores identified 6 % of all patients having homogeneous high-risk with distinctively worse outcomes (5-year EFS of 41 %, cumulative complete cytogenetic response rate of 56 %, and cumulative major molecular response rate of 27 %), whereas the group of discordance in risk scores (60 %) had similar results to those of intermediate-risk groups of Sokal and Euro scores. Combining all risk scores for baseline risk assessment may be useful in clinical practice for identifying groups of patients who may benefit from treatment initiation with a more potent TKI among the currently available first-line TKIs.

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

PubMed

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Aoki, Tomonori; Nagata, Naoyoshi; Shimbo, Takuro; Niikura, Ryota; Sakurai, Toshiyuki; Moriyasu, Shiori; Okubo, Hidetaka; Sekine, Katsunori; Watanabe, Kazuhiro; Yokoi, Chizu; Yanase, Mikio; Akiyama, Junichi; Mizokami, Masashi; Uemura, Naomi

2016-11-01

We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to determine the risk of severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) and predict patient outcomes. We first performed a retrospective analysis of data from 439 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan, from January 2009 through December 2013. We used data on comorbidities, medication, presenting symptoms, and vital signs, and laboratory test results to develop a scoring system for severe LGIB (defined as continuous and/or recurrent bleeding). We validated the risk score in a prospective study of 161 patients with acute LGIB admitted to the same center from April 2014 through April 2015. We assessed the system's accuracy in predicting patient outcome using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. All patients underwent colonoscopy. In the first study, 29% of the patients developed severe LGIB. We devised a risk scoring system based on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or lower, antiplatelet drugs use, albumin level less than 3.0 g/dL, disease scores of 2 or higher, and syncope (NOBLADS), which all were independent correlates of severe LGIB. Severe LGIB developed in 75.7% of patients with scores of 5 or higher compared with 2% of patients without any of the factors correlated with severe LGIB (P < .001). The NOBLADS score determined the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.77. In the validation (second) study, severe LGIB developed in 35% of patients; the NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.76. Higher NOBLADS scores were associated with a requirement for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention (P < .05 for trend). We developed and validated a scoring system for risk of severe LGIB based on 8 factors (NOBLADS score). The system also determined the risk for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention. It might be used in decision making regarding intervention and management. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Addition of 24-Hour Heart Rate Variability Parameters to the Cardiovascular Health Study Stroke Risk Score and Prediction of Incident Stroke: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

PubMed

Bodapati, Rohan K; Kizer, Jorge R; Kop, Willem J; Kamel, Hooman; Stein, Phyllis K

2017-07-21

Heart rate variability (HRV) characterizes cardiac autonomic functioning. The association of HRV with stroke is uncertain. We examined whether 24-hour HRV added predictive value to the Cardiovascular Health Study clinical stroke risk score (CHS-SCORE), previously developed at the baseline examination. N=884 stroke-free CHS participants (age 75.3±4.6), with 24-hour Holters adequate for HRV analysis at the 1994-1995 examination, had 68 strokes over ≤8 year follow-up (median 7.3 [interquartile range 7.1-7.6] years). The value of adding HRV to the CHS-SCORE was assessed with stepwise Cox regression analysis. The CHS-SCORE predicted incident stroke (HR=1.06 per unit increment, P =0.005). Two HRV parameters, decreased coefficient of variance of NN intervals (CV%, P =0.031) and decreased power law slope (SLOPE, P =0.033) also entered the model, but these did not significantly improve the c-statistic ( P =0.47). In a secondary analysis, dichotomization of CV% (LOWCV% ≤12.8%) was found to maximally stratify higher-risk participants after adjustment for CHS-SCORE. Similarly, dichotomizing SLOPE (LOWSLOPE <-1.4) maximally stratified higher-risk participants. When these HRV categories were combined (eg, HIGHCV% with HIGHSLOPE), the c-statistic for the model with the CHS-SCORE and combined HRV categories was 0.68, significantly higher than 0.61 for the CHS-SCORE alone ( P =0.02). In this sample of older adults, 2 HRV parameters, CV% and power law slope, emerged as significantly associated with incident stroke when added to a validated clinical risk score. After each parameter was dichotomized based on its optimal cut point in this sample, their composite significantly improved prediction of incident stroke during ≤8-year follow-up. These findings will require validation in separate, larger cohorts. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Risk stratification of periprocedural myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention: Analysis based on the SCAI definition.

PubMed

Zhang, Dong; Li, Yiping; Yin, Dong; He, Yuan; Chen, Changzhe; Song, Chenxi; Yan, Ruohua; Zhu, Chen'gang; Xu, Bo; Dou, Kefei

2017-03-01

To investigate the predictors of and generate a risk prediction method for periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using the new PMI definition proposed by the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI). The SCAI-defined PMI was found to be associated with worse prognosis than the PMI diagnosed by other definitions. However, few large-sample studies have attempted to predict the risk of SCAI-defined PMI. A total of 3,371 patients (3,516 selective PCIs) were included in this single-center retrospective analysis. The diagnostic criteria for PMI were set according to the SCAI definition. All clinical characteristics, coronary angiography findings and PCI procedural factors were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of PMI. To evaluate the risk of PMI, a multivariable risk score (PMI score) was constructed with incremental weights attributed to each component variable according to their estimated coefficients. PMI occurred in 108 (3.1%) of all patients. Age, multivessel treatment, at least one bifurcation treatment and total treated lesion length were independent predictors of SCAI-defined PMI. PMI scores ranged from 0 to 20. The C-statistic of PMI score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.76). PMI rates increased significantly from 1.96% in the non-high-risk group (PMI score < 10) to 6.26% in the high-risk group (PMI score ≥ 10) (P < 0.001). Age, multivessel treatment, at least one bifurcation treatment, and total treated lesion length are predictive of PMI. The PMI score could help identify patients at high risk of PMI after PCI. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simple new risk score model for adult cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: simple cardiac ECMO score.

PubMed

Peigh, Graham; Cavarocchi, Nicholas; Keith, Scott W; Hirose, Hitoshi

2015-10-01

Although the use of cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasing in adult patients, the field lacks understanding of associated risk factors. While standard intensive care unit risk scores such as SAPS II (simplified acute physiology score II), SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment), and APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II), or disease-specific scores such as MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) and RIFLE (kidney risk, injury, failure, loss of function, ESRD) exist, they may not apply to adult cardiac ECMO patients as their risk factors differ from variables used in these scores. Between 2010 and 2014, 73 ECMOs were performed for cardiac support at our institution. Patient demographics and survival were retrospectively analyzed. A new easily calculated score for predicting ECMO mortality was created using identified risk factors from univariate and multivariate analyses, and model discrimination was compared with other scoring systems. Cardiac ECMO was performed on 73 patients (47 males and 26 females) with a mean age of 48 ± 14 y. Sixty-four percent of patients (47/73) survived ECMO support. Pre-ECMO SAPS II, SOFA, APACHE II, MELD, RIFLE, PRESERVE, and ECMOnet scores, were not correlated with survival. Univariate analysis of pre-ECMO risk factors demonstrated that increased lactate, renal dysfunction, and postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock were risk factors for death. Applying these data into a new simplified cardiac ECMO score (minimal risk = 0, maximal = 5) predicted patient survival. Survivors had a lower risk score (1.8 ± 1.2) versus the nonsurvivors (3.0 ± 0.99), P < 0.0001. Common intensive care unit or disease-specific risk scores calculated for cardiac ECMO patients did not correlate with ECMO survival, whereas a new simplified cardiac ECMO score provides survival predictability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

PubMed

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-02-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

A novel scoring system for gastric cancer risk assessment based on the expression of three CLIP4 DNA methylation-associated genes

PubMed Central

Hu, Chenggong; Zhou, Yongfang; Liu, Chang; Kang, Yan

2018-01-01

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide. In the current study, comprehensive bioinformatic analyses were performed to develop a novel scoring system for GC risk assessment based on CAP-Gly domain containing linker protein family member 4 (CLIP4) DNA methylation status. Two GC datasets with methylation sequencing information and mRNA expression profiling were downloaded from the The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus databases. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between the CLIP4 hypermethylation and CLIP4 hypomethylation groups were screened using the limma package in R 3.3.1, and survival analysis of these DEGs was performed using the survival package. A risk scoring system was established via regression factor-weighted gene expression based on linear combination to screen the most important genes associated with CLIP4 methylation and prognosis. Genes associated with high/low-risk value were selected using the limma package. Functional enrichment analysis of the top 500 DEGs that positively and negatively associated with risk values was performed using DAVID 6.8 online and the gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) software. In total, 35 genes were identified to be that significantly associated with prognosis and CLIP4 DNA methylation, and three prognostic signature genes, claudin-11 (CLDN11), apolipoprotein D (APOD), and chordin like 1 (CHRDL1), were used to establish a risk assessment system. The prognostic scoring system exhibited efficiency in classifying patients with different prognoses, where the low-risk groups had significantly longer overall survival times than those in the high-risk groups. CLDN11, APOD and CHRDL1 exhibited reduced expression in the hypermethylation and low-risk groups compare with the hypomethylation and high-risk groups, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that risk value could be used as an independent prognostic factor. In functional analysis, six functional gene ontology terms and five GSEA pathways were associated with CLDN11, APOD and CHRDL1. The results established the credibility of the scoring system in this study. Additionally, these three genes, which were significantly associated with CLIP4 DNA methylation and GC risk assessment, were identified as potential prognostic biomarkers. PMID:29901187

Substantial improvement of primary cardiovascular prevention by a systematic score-based multimodal approach: A randomized trial: The PreFord-Study.

PubMed

Gysan, Detlef Bernd; Millentrup, Stefanie; Albus, Christian; Bjarnason-Wehrens, Birna; Latsch, Joachim; Gohlke, Helmut; Herold, Gerd; Wegscheider, Karl; Heming, Christian; Seyfarth, Melchior; Predel, Hans-Georg

2017-09-01

Trial design Prospective randomized multicentre interventional study. Methods Individual cardiovascular risk assessment in Ford Company, Germany employees ( n = 4.196), using the European Society of Cardiology-Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (ESC-SCORE) for classification into three risk groups. Subjects assigned to ESC high-risk group (ESC-SCORE ≥ 5%), without a history of cardiovascular disease were eligible for randomization to a multimodal 15-week intervention programme (INT) or to usual care and followed up for 36 months. Objectives Evaluation of the long-term effects of a risk-adjusted multimodal intervention in high-risk subjects. Primary endpoint: reduction of ESC-SCORE in INT versus usual care. Secondary endpoints: composite of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events and time to first cardiovascular event. intention-to-treat and per-protocol analysis. Results Four hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized to INT ( n = 224) or to usual care ( n = 223). After 36 months ESC-SCORE development favouring INT was observed (INT: 8.70% to 10.03% vs. usual care: 8.49% to 12.09%; p = 0.005; net difference: 18.50%). Moreover, a significant reduction in the composite cardiovascular events was observed: (INT: n = 11 vs. usual care: n = 27). Hazard ratio of intervention versus control was 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.25-1.03; p = 0.062) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.18-0.90; p = 0.026) in the per-protocol analysis, respectively. No intervention-related adverse events or side-effects were observed. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the efficiency of identifying cardiovascular high-risk subjects by the ESC-SCORE in order to enrol them to a risk adjusted primary prevention programme. This strategy resulted in a significant improvement of ESC-SCORE, as well as a reduction in predefined cardiovascular endpoints in the INT within 36 months. (ISRCTN 23536103.).

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Stritzke, Jan; Kee, Frank; Silander, Kaisa; Klopp, Norman; Kontto, Jukka; Karvanen, Juha; Willenborg, Christina; Salomaa, Veikko; Virtamo, Jarmo; Amouyel, Phillippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Wiklund, Per-Gunner; Baumert, Jens; Thorand, Barbara; Diemert, Patrick; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Hengstenberg, Christian; Peters, Annette; Evans, Alun; Koenig, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Jeanette; Samani, Nilesh J; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Schunkert, Heribert

2012-01-01

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design. Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived. Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events. Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

Low-Carbohydrate-Diet Score and its Association with the Risk of Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Namazi, Nazli; Larijani, Bagher; Azadbakht, Leila

2017-08-01

The association between a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) score and the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) is contradictory. This study is a systemic review of cohort studies that have focused on the association between the LCD score and DM. We searched PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar for papers published through January 2017 with no language restrictions. Cohort studies that reported relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for DM were included. Finally, 4 studies were considered for our meta-analysis. The total number of participants ranged from 479 to 85 059. Among 4 cohort studies, 8 081 cases with DM were observed over follow-up durations ranging from 3.6 to 20 years. A marginal significant association was observed between the highest LCD score and the risk of DM (RR=1.17; 95% CI: 0.9, 1.51). Moreover, the RRs for studies with energy adjustments showed a significant association (RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.49; I 2 : 0%). Based on our findings, study qualities score of less or equal to 7 had a significant influence on the pooled effect size (RR=1.31, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.49; I 2 : 0%), whereas the overall RR in the studies with quality score more than 7 was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.63). In conclusion, we have found that the highest LCD score was marginally associated with the risk of DM. However, more prospective cohort studies are needed to clarify the effects of the LCD score on the risk of DM. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

PubMed Central

Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

2018-01-01

Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

Risk stratification on the basis of Deauville score on PET-CT and the presence of Epstein-Barr virus DNA after completion of primary treatment for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type: a multicentre, retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Seok Jin; Choi, Joon Young; Hyun, Seung Hyup; Ki, Chang-Seok; Oh, Dongryul; Ahn, Yong Chan; Ko, Young Hyeh; Choi, Sunkyu; Jung, Sin-Ho; Khong, Pek-Lan; Tang, Tiffany; Yan, Xuexian; Lim, Soon Thye; Kwong, Yok-Lam; Kim, Won Seog

2015-02-01

Assessment of tumour viability after treatment is essential for prediction of treatment failure in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL). We aimed to assess the use of the post-treatment Deauville score on PET-CT and Epstein-Barr virus DNA as a predictor of residual tumour, to establish the risk of treatment failure in patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL. In a retrospective analysis of patient data we assessed the prognostic relevance of the Deauville score (five-point scale) on PET-CT and circulating Epstein-Barr virus DNA after completion of treatment in consecutive patients with ENKTL who met eligibility criteria (newly diagnosed and received non-anthracycline-based chemotherapy, concurrent chemoradiotherapy, or both together) diagnosed at the Samsung Medical Center in Seoul, South Korea. The primary aim was to assess the association between progression-free survival and risk stratification based on post-treatment Deauville score and Epstein-Barr virus DNA. With an independent cohort from two different hospitals (Hong Kong and Singapore), we validated the prognostic value of our risk model. We included 102 patients diagnosed with ENKTL between Jan 6, 2005, and Nov 18, 2013, in the study cohort, and 38 patients diagnosed with ENKTL between Jan 7, 2009, and June 27, 2013, in the validation cohort. In the study cohort after a median follow-up of 47·2 months (IQR 30·0-65·5), 45 (44%) patients had treatment failure and 33 (32%) had died. Post-treatment Deauville score and Epstein-Barr virus DNA positivity were independently associated with progression-free and overall survival in the multivariable analysis (for post-treatment Deauville score of 3-4, progression-free survival hazard ratio [HR] 3·607, 95% CI 1·772-7·341, univariable p<0·0001; for post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA positivity, progression-free survival HR 3·595, 95% CI 1·598-8·089, univariable p<0·0001). We stratified patients into three groups based on risk of treatment failure: a low-risk group (post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus negativity and post-treatment Deauville score of 1-2), a high-risk group (post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus negativity with a Deauville score 3-4, or post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus positivity with a Deauville score 1-2), and treatment failure (Deauville score of 5 or post-treatment Epstein-Barr positivity with a Deauville of score 3-4). This risk model showed a significant association with progression-free survival (for low risk vs high risk, HR 7·761, 95% CI 2·592-23·233, p<0·0001; for low risk vs failure, HR 18·546, 95% CI 5·997-57·353, p<0·0001). The validation cohort showed the same associations (for low risk vs high risk, HR 22·909, 95% CI 2·850-184·162, p=0·003; for low risk vs failure, HR 50·652, 95% CI 6·114-419·610, p<0·0001). Post-treatment Deauville score on PET-CT scan and the presence of Epstein-Barr virus DNA can predict the risk of treatment failure in patients with ENKTL. Our results might be able to help guide clinical practice. Samsung Biomedical Research Institute. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Practical prognostic index for patients with metastatic recurrent breast cancer: retrospective analysis of 2,322 patients from the GEICAM Spanish El Alamo Register.

PubMed

Puente, Javier; López-Tarruella, Sara; Ruiz, Amparo; Lluch, Ana; Pastor, Miguel; Alba, Emilio; de la Haba, Juan; Ramos, Manuel; Cirera, Luis; Antón, Antonio; Llombart, Antoni; Plazaola, Arrate; Fernández-Aramburo, Antonio; Sastre, Javier; Díaz-Rubio, Eduardo; Martin, Miguel

2010-07-01

Women with recurrent metastatic breast cancer from a Spanish hospital registry (El Alamo, GEICAM) were analyzed in order to identify the most helpful prognostic factors to predict survival and to ultimately construct a practical prognostic index. The inclusion criteria covered women patients diagnosed with operable invasive breast cancer who had metastatic recurrence between 1990 and 1997 in GEICAM hospitals. Patients with stage IV breast cancer at initial diagnosis or with isolated loco-regional recurrence were excluded from this analysis. Data from 2,322 patients with recurrent breast cancer after primary treatment (surgery, radiation and systemic adjuvant treatment) were used to construct the prognostic index. The prognostic index score for each individual patient was calculated by totalling up the scores of each independent variable. The maximum score obtainable was 26.1. Nine-hundred and sixty-two patients who had complete data for all the variables were used in the computation of the prognostic index score. We were able to stratify them into three prognostic groups based on the prognostic index score: 322 patients in the good risk group (score < or =13.5), 308 patients in the intermediate risk group (score 13.51-15.60) and 332 patients in the poor risk group (score > or =15.61). The median survivals for these groups were 3.69, 2.27 and 1.02 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, risk scores are extraordinarily valuable tools, highly recommendable in the clinical practice.

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

PubMed

Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (p<0.05). A progressive increase in the relative risk occurred as the number of movements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

PubMed

Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

2014-02-01

Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Polygenic risk score analysis of pathologically confirmed Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Escott-Price, Valentina; Myers, Amanda J; Huentelman, Matt; Hardy, John

2017-08-01

Previous estimates of the utility of polygenic risk score analysis for the prediction of Alzheimer disease have given area under the curve (AUC) estimates of <80%. However, these have been based on the genetic analysis of clinical case-control series. Here, we apply the same analytic approaches to a pathological case-control series and show a predictive AUC of 84%. We suggest that this analysis has clinical utility and that there is limited room for further improvement using genetic data. Ann Neurol 2017;82:311-314. © 2017 American Neurological Association.

Use of a systematic risk analysis method (FMECA) to improve quality in a clinical laboratory procedure.

PubMed

Serafini, A; Troiano, G; Franceschini, E; Calzoni, P; Nante, N; Scapellato, C

2016-01-01

Risk management is a set of actions to recognize or identify risks, errors and their consequences and to take the steps to counter it. The aim of our study was to apply FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis) to the Activated Protein C resistance (APCR) test in order to detect and avoid mistakes in this process. We created a team and the process was divided in phases and sub phases. For each phase we calculated the probability of occurrence (O) of an error, the detectability score (D) and the severity (S). The product of these three indexes yields the RPN (Risk Priority Number). Phases with a higher RPN need corrective actions with a higher priority. The calculation of RPN showed that more than 20 activities have a score higher than 150 and need important preventive actions; 8 have a score between 100 and 150. Only 23 actions obtained an acceptable score lower than 100. This was one of the first experience of application of FMECA analysis to a laboratory process, and the first one which applies this technique to the identification of the factor V Leiden, and our results confirm that FMECA could be a simple, powerful and useful tool in risk management and helps to identify quickly the criticality in a laboratory process.

Comparison between the Framingham and prospective cardiovascular of Münster scores for risk assessment of coronary heart disease in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients in Pernambuco, Brazil.

PubMed

Barros, Zoraya Medeiros; de Alencar Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes; Miranda-Filho, Demócrito Barros; de Albuquerque, Maria de Fátima Pessoa Militão; Melo, Heloísa Ramos Lacerda; Carvalho, Erico Higino; Gelenske, Thais; Diniz, George; Bandeira, Francisco

2010-12-01

The Framingham score is used in most studies on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to estimate the risk for coronary heart disease; however, it may have some limitations for detecting risk among these individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular of Münster (PROCAM) scores among HIV-positive individuals and to investigate the factors associated with disagreement between the two scores. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients attending the outpatient's clinics of two reference centers for HIV/AIDS in Pernambuco, Brazil. Agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores was evaluated using the kappa index. From this analysis, a variable called "disagreement between scores" was created, and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to investigate the factors associated with this variable. The prevalence of low, moderate, and high risk were, respectively, 78.7%, 13.5%, and 7.8% by Framingham score and 88.5%, 4.3%, and 7.2% by PROCAM (kappa = 0.64, P ≤ 0.0001). Agreement in the subgroup with metabolic syndrome by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) (kappa = 0.51, P ≤ 0.0001) and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) (kappa = 0.59, P ≤ 0.0001) criteria was moderate. The Framingham score identified greater proportion of women with moderate risk. Factors independently associated with disagreement were: smoking, sex, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome. There was a good agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores in HIV-positive patients, but a higher proportion of moderate-high risk was identified by the Framingham score. This disagreement should be evaluated in cohort studies to observe clinical outcomes over the course of time.

A new scoring system (DAIGA) for predicting bleeding complications in atrial fibrillation patients after drug-eluting stent implantation with triple antithrombotic therapy.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Norihiro; Yamawaki, Masahiro; Nakano, Masatsugu; Hirano, Keisuke; Araki, Motoharu; Takimura, Hideyuki; Sakamoto, Yasunari; Mori, Shinsuke; Tsutsumi, Masakazu; Ito, Yoshiaki

2016-11-15

No scoring system for evaluating the bleeding risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation with triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) is available. We aimed to develop a new scoring system for predicting bleeding complications in AF patients after DES implantation with TAT. Between April 2007 and April 2014, 227 AF patients undergoing DES implantation with TAT were enrolled. Bleeding incidence defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria≥2 was investigated and predictors of bleeding complications were evaluated using multivariate analysis. Bleeding complications occurred in 58 patients (25.6%) during follow-up. Multivariate analysis revealed dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) continuation (OR 3.33, P=0.01), age>75 (OR 2.14, P=0.037), international normalized ratio>2.2 (OR 5.82, P<0.001), gastrointestinal ulcer history (OR 3.06, P=0.037), and anemia (OR 2.15, P=0.042) as predictors of major bleeding complications. A score was created using the weighted points proportional to the beta regression coefficient of each variable. The DAIGA score showed better predictive ability for bleeding complications than the HAS-BLED score (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.62, P=0.0003). Bleeding incidence was well stratified: 17.8% in low-risk (scores 0-1), 55.5% in moderate-risk (2-3), and 83.0% in high-risk (4-7) patients (P<0.001). This scoring system is useful for predicting bleeding complications and risk stratification of AF patients after DES implantation with TAT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Subjective parental stress as indicator for child abuse risk: the role of emotional regulation and attachment].

PubMed

Spangler, Gottfried; Bovenschen, Ina; Globisch, Jutta; Krippl, Martin; Ast-Scheitenberger, Stephanie

2009-01-01

The Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAPI) is an evidence-based procedure for the assessment of the risk for child abuse in parents. In this study, a German translation of the CAPI was applied to a normal sample of German parents (N = 944). Descriptive analysis of the CAPI scores in the German provides findings comparable to the original standardization sample. The subjects' child abuse risk score was associated with demographic characteristics like education, marital status, occupation and gender. Long-term stability of the child abuse risk score and associations with individual differences in emotional regulation and attachment were investigated in a sub-sample of mothers with high and low child abuse risk scores (N = 69). The findings proved long-term stability. Furthermore associations between the child abuse risk score and anger dispositions were found which, however, were moderated by attachment differences. The findings suggest attachment security as a protective factor against child abuse.

Fall risk assessment: retrospective analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores in Portuguese hospitalized adult patients.

PubMed

Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Simões, Cláudia Sofia Oliveira; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Simões, João Filipe Fernandes Lindo; Melo, Elsa Maria de Oliveira Pinheiro de

2016-08-01

The Morse Fall Scale is used in several care settings for fall risk assessment and supports the implementation of preventive nursing interventions. Our work aims to analyze the Morse Fall Scale scores of Portuguese hospitalized adult patients in association with their characteristics, diagnoses and length of stay. Retrospective cohort analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores of 8356 patients hospitalized during 2012. Data were associated to age, gender, type of admission, specialty units, length of stay, patient discharge, and ICD-9 diagnosis. Elderly patients, female, with emergency service admission, at medical units and/or with longer length of stays were more frequently included in the risk group for falls. ICD-9 diagnosis may also be an important risk factor. More than a half of hospitalized patients had "medium" to "high" risk of falling during the length of stay, which determines the implementation and maintenance of protocoled preventive nursing interventions throughout hospitalization. There are several fall risk factors not assessed by Morse Fall Scale. There were no statistical differences in Morse Fall Scale score between the first and the last assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Study of the Factors Associated with Risk for Development of Pressure Ulcers: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Thomas, Elizebeth; Vinodkumar, Sudhaya; Mathew, Silvia; Setia, Maninder Singh

2015-01-01

Background: Pressure ulcers (PUs) are prevalent in hospitalized patients; they may cause clinical, psychological, and economic problems in these patients. Previous studies are cross-sectional, have used pooled data, or cox-regression models to assess the risk for developing PU. However, PU risk scores change over time and models that account for time varying variables are useful for cohort analysis of data. Aims and Objectives: The present longitudinal study was conducted to compare the risk of PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients, and to evaluate the factors associated with the development of these ulcers over a period of time. Materials and Methods: We evaluated 290 hospitalized patients over a 4 months period. The main outcomes for our analysis were: (1) Score on the pressure risk assessment scale; and (2) the proportion of individuals who were at severe risk for developing PUs. We used random effects models for longitudinal analysis of the data. Results: The mean PU score was significantly higher in the nonsurgical patients compared with surgical patients at baseline (15.23 [3.86] vs. 9.33 [4.57]; P < 0.01). About 7% of the total patients had a score of >20 at baseline and were considered as being at high-risk for PU; the proportion was significantly higher among the nonsurgical patients compared with the surgical patients (14% vs. 4%, P = 0.003). In the adjusted models, there was no difference for severe risk for PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01–12.80). An additional day in the ward was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being at high-risk for PU (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.16–1.86). Conclusion: There were no significant differences between patients who were admitted for surgery compared with those who were not. An additional day in the ward, however, is important for developing a high-risk score for PU on the monitoring scale, and these patients require active interventions. PMID:26677269

Mammographic breast density and breast cancer: evidence of a shared genetic basis.

PubMed

Varghese, Jajini S; Thompson, Deborah J; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Lindström, Sara; Turnbull, Clare; Brown, Judith; Leyland, Jean; Warren, Ruth M L; Luben, Robert N; Loos, Ruth J; Wareham, Nicholas J; Rommens, Johanna; Paterson, Andrew D; Martin, Lisa J; Vachon, Celine M; Scott, Christopher G; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Couch, Fergus J; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Stone, Jennifer; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Boyd, Norman F; Hall, Per; Hopper, John L; Tamimi, Rulla M; Rahman, Nazneen; Easton, Douglas F

2012-03-15

Percent mammographic breast density (PMD) is a strong heritable risk factor for breast cancer. However, the pathways through which this risk is mediated are still unclear. To explore whether PMD and breast cancer have a shared genetic basis, we identified genetic variants most strongly associated with PMD in a published meta-analysis of five genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and used these to construct risk scores for 3,628 breast cancer cases and 5,190 controls from the UK2 GWAS of breast cancer. The signed per-allele effect estimates of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were multiplied with the respective allele counts in the individual and summed over all SNPs to derive the risk score for an individual. These scores were included as the exposure variable in a logistic regression model with breast cancer case-control status as the outcome. This analysis was repeated using 10 different cutoff points for the most significant density SNPs (1%-10% representing 5,222-50,899 SNPs). Permutation analysis was also conducted across all 10 cutoff points. The association between risk score and breast cancer was significant for all cutoff points from 3% to 10% of top density SNPs, being most significant for the 6% (2-sided P = 0.002) to 10% (P = 0.001) cutoff points (overall permutation P = 0.003). Women in the top 10% of the risk score distribution had a 31% increased risk of breast cancer [OR = 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08-1.59] compared with women in the bottom 10%. Together, our results show that PMD and breast cancer have a shared genetic basis that is mediated through a large number of common variants.

Mammographic breast density and breast cancer: evidence of a shared genetic basis

PubMed Central

Varghese, Jajini S; Thompson, Deborah J; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Lindström, Sara; Turnbull, Clare; Brown, Judith; Leyland, Jean; Warren, Ruth ML; Luben, Robert N; Loos, Ruth J; Wareham, Nicholas J; Rommens, Johanna; Paterson, Andrew D; Martin, Lisa J; Vachon, Celine M; Scott, Christopher G; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Couch, Fergus J; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Stone, Jennifer; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Boyd, Norman F; Hall, Per; Hopper, John L; Tamimi, Rulla M; Rahman, Nazneen; Easton, Douglas F

2012-01-01

Percent mammographic breast density (PMD) is a strong heritable risk factor for breast cancer. However, the pathways through which this risk is mediated are still unclear. To explore whether PMD and breast cancer have a shared genetic basis, we identified genetic variants most strongly associated with PMD in a published meta-analysis of five genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and used these to construct risk scores for 3628 breast cancer cases and 5190 controls from the UK2 GWAS of breast cancer. The signed per-allele effect estimates of SNPs were multiplied with the respective allele counts in the individual and summed over all SNPs to derive the risk score for an individual. These scores were included as the exposure variable in a logistic regression model with breast cancer case-control status as the outcome. This analysis was repeated using ten different cut-offs for the most significant density SNPs (1-10% representing 5,222-50,899 SNPs). Permutation analysis was also performed across all 10 cut-offs. The association between risk score and breast cancer was significant for all cut-offs from 3-10% of top density SNPs, being most significant for the 6% (2-sided P=0.002) to 10% (P=0.001) cut-offs (overall permutation P=0.003). Women in the top 10% of the risk score distribution had a 31% increased risk of breast cancer [OR= 1.31 (95%CI 1.08-1.59)] compared to women in the bottom 10%. Together, our results demonstrate that PMD and breast cancer have a shared genetic basis that is mediated through a large number of common variants. PMID:22266113

Automation of a high risk medication regime algorithm in a home health care population.

PubMed

Olson, Catherine H; Dierich, Mary; Westra, Bonnie L

2014-10-01

Create an automated algorithm for predicting elderly patients' medication-related risks for readmission and validate it by comparing results with a manual analysis of the same patient population. Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) and medication data were reused from a previous, manual study of 911 patients from 15 Medicare-certified home health care agencies. The medication data was converted into standardized drug codes using APIs managed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM), and then integrated in an automated algorithm that calculates patients' high risk medication regime scores (HRMRs). A comparison of the results between algorithm and manual process was conducted to determine how frequently the HRMR scores were derived which are predictive of readmission. HRMR scores are composed of polypharmacy (number of drugs), Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) (drugs risky to the elderly), and Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI) (complex dose forms, instructions or administration). The algorithm produced polypharmacy, PIM, and MRCI scores that matched with 99%, 87% and 99% of the scores, respectively, from the manual analysis. Imperfect match rates resulted from discrepancies in how drugs were classified and coded by the manual analysis vs. the automated algorithm. HRMR rules lack clarity, resulting in clinical judgments for manual coding that were difficult to replicate in the automated analysis. The high comparison rates for the three measures suggest that an automated clinical tool could use patients' medication records to predict their risks of avoidable readmissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The significance of OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in the risk assessment of gastric cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yue, Hu; Shan, Liu; Bin, Lv

2018-02-19

Despite extensive research on the criteria for the assessment of gastric cancer risk using the Operative Link on Gastritis Assessment (OLGA) and Operative Link on Gastritis/Intestinal-Metaplasia Assessment (OLGIM) systems, no comprehensive overview or systematic summary on their use is currently available. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of the OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in evaluating gastric cancer risk. We searched various databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, and Cochrane's library, for articles published before March 2017 on the association between OLGA/OLGIM stages and risk of gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.30 and Stata 14.0, with the odds ratio, risk ratio, and 95% confidence interval as the effect measures. A meta-analysis of six case-control studies and two cohort studies, comprising 2700 subjects, was performed. The meta-analysis of prospective case-control studies demonstrated a significant association between the OLGA/OLGIM stages III/IV and gastric cancer. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score reflected heterogeneity in the case-control studies on OLGA. Subgroup analysis of high-quality (NOS score ≥ 5) studies showed an association between OLGA stage III/IV and increased risk of gastric cancer; the association was also high in the remaining study with low NOS score. The association between higher stages of gastritis defined by OLGA and risk of gastric cancer was significant. This correlation implies that close and frequent monitoring of such high-risk patients is necessary to facilitate timely diagnosis of gastric cancer.

The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain.

PubMed

Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun

2018-06-01

The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score < 2 were enrolled in the emergency department. Baseline data were collected and a HEART score was determined in each participant during the indexed emergency visit. Participants were follow-up for 30 days after discharge and the studied endpoints included acute myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality.A total of 244 patients were enrolled and 2 was loss of follow-up. The mean age was 50.4 years old and male patients accounted for 64.5%. Substernal pain and featured as pressure of the pain accounted for 34.3% and 39.3%, respectively. After 30 days' follow-up, no patient in the low-risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

Use of disease risk scores in pharmacoepidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Arbogast, Patrick G; Ray, Wayne A

2009-02-01

Automated databases are increasingly used in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. These databases include records of prescribed medications and encounters with medical care providers from which one can construct very detailed surrogate measures for both drug exposure and covariates that are potential confounders. Often it is possible to track day-by-day changes in these variables. However, while this information is often critical for study success, its volume can pose challenges for statistical analysis. One common approach is the use of propensity scores. An alternative approach is to construct a disease risk score. This is analogous to the propensity score in that it calculates a summary measure from the covariates. However, the disease risk score estimates the probability or rate of disease occurrence conditional on being unexposed. The association between exposure and disease is then estimated adjusting for the disease risk score in place of the individual covariates. This review describes the use of disease risk scores in pharmacoepidemiologic studies, and includes a brief discussion of their history, a more detailed description of their construction and use, a summary of simulation studies comparing their performance vis-á-vis traditional models, a comparison of their utility with that of propensity scores, and some further topics for future research.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk prediction score model for predicting occurrence of post-PCI vasovagal reflex syndrome: a single center study in Chinese population.

PubMed

Li, Hai-Yan; Guo, Yu-Tao; Tian, Cui; Song, Chao-Qun; Mu, Yang; Li, Yang; Chen, Yun-Dai

2017-08-01

The vasovagal reflex syndrome (VVRS) is common in the patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. From the hospital electronic medical database, we identified 3550 patients who received PCI (78.0% males, mean age 60 years) in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed. The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation (all P < 0.001). The rate of VVRS [95% confidence interval (CI)] in patients receiving PCI was 4.5% (4.1%-5.6%). Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stents implantation in the left anterior descending (LAD), and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS (all P < 0.001). We developed a risk prediction score model for VVRS. ROC analysis showed that the risk prediction score model was effectively predictive of the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI: 0.72-0.79, P < 0.001). There were decreased events of VVRS in the patients receiving PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81-0.87, P < 0.001). The risk prediction score is quite efficient in predicting the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI. In which, the following factors may be involved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mossahebi, S; Feigenberg, S; Nichols, E

Purpose: GammaPod™, the first stereotactic radiotherapy device for early stage breast cancer treatment, has been recently installed and commissioned at our institution. A multidisciplinary working group applied the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) approach to perform a risk analysis. Methods: FMEA was applied to the GammaPod™ treatment process by: 1) generating process maps for each stage of treatment; 2) identifying potential failure modes and outlining their causes and effects; 3) scoring the potential failure modes using the risk priority number (RPN) system based on the product of severity, frequency of occurrence, and detectability (ranging 1–10). An RPN of highermore » than 150 was set as the threshold for minimal concern of risk. For these high-risk failure modes, potential quality assurance procedures and risk control techniques have been proposed. A new set of severity, occurrence, and detectability values were re-assessed in presence of the suggested mitigation strategies. Results: In the single-day image-and-treat workflow, 19, 22, and 27 sub-processes were identified for the stages of simulation, treatment planning, and delivery processes, respectively. During the simulation stage, 38 potential failure modes were found and scored, in terms of RPN, in the range of 9-392. 34 potential failure modes were analyzed in treatment planning with a score range of 16-200. For the treatment delivery stage, 47 potential failure modes were found with an RPN score range of 16-392. The most critical failure modes consisted of breast-cup pressure loss and incorrect target localization due to patient upper-body alignment inaccuracies. The final RPN score of these failure modes based on recommended actions were assessed to be below 150. Conclusion: FMEA risk analysis technique was applied to the treatment process of GammaPod™, a new stereotactic radiotherapy technology. Application of systematic risk analysis methods is projected to lead to improved quality of GammaPod™ treatments. Ying Niu and Cedric Yu are affiliated with Xcision Medical Systems.« less

Apparent diffusion coefficient on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in bladder cancer: relations with recurrence/progression risk

PubMed Central

Kikuchi, Ken; Shigihara, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yuko; Miyajima, Masayuki; Haga, Nobuhiro; Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Shishido, Fumio

2017-01-01

Abstract AIMS: To evaluate the relationship between the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value for bladder cancer and the recurrence/progression risk of post-transurethral resection (TUR). METHODS: Forty-one patients with initial and non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer underwent MRI from 2009 to 2012. Two radiologists measured ADC values. A pathologist calculated the recurrence/progression scores, and risk was classified based on the scores. Pearson’s correlation was used to analyze the correlations of ADC value with each score and with each risk group, and the optimal cut-off value was established based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Furthermore, the relationship between actual recurrence / progression of cases and ADC values was examined by Unpaird U test. RESULTS: There were significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence score as well as the progression score (P<0.01, P<0.01, respectively). There were also significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence risk group as well as progression risk group (P=0.042, P<0.01, respectively). The ADC cut-off value on ROC analysis was 1.365 (sensitivity 100%; specificity 97.4%) for the low and intermediate recurrence risk groups, 1.024 (sensitivity 47.4%; specificity 100%) for the intermediate and high recurrence risk groups, 1.252 (sensitivity 83.3%; specificity 81.3%) for the low and intermediate progression risk groups, and 0.955 (sensitivity 87.5%; specificity 63.2%) between the intermediate and high progression risk groups. The difference between the ADC values of the recurrence and nonrecurrence group in Unpaired t test was significant (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: ADC on MRI in bladder cancer could potentially be useful, non-invasive measurement for estimating the risks of recurrence and progression. PMID:28680010

Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B

2015-07-01

Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history (P = .03). A total of 17.4% (95% CI, 9.1-26.6) of the effect associated with family history of schizophrenia/psychoses was mediated through the polygenic risk score. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score, family psychiatric history, and socioeconomic status. Our study demonstrated that family history of schizophrenia/psychoses is partly mediated through the individual's genetic liability.

B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

2016-01-01

RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p < 0.001), respectively. Addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p < 0.001), but this increase measured by the c-statistic was not significant (p = 0.107). Furthermore, the significant improvement in risk reclassification (p < 0.001) and the integrated discrimination index (p = 0.042) were observed with the addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

Comparison of Subjective Global Assessment and Protein Energy Wasting Score to Nutrition Evaluations Conducted by Registered Dietitian Nutritionists in Identifying Protein Energy Wasting Risk in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Sum, Simon Siu-Man; Marcus, Andrea F; Blair, Debra; Olejnik, Laura A; Cao, Joyce; Parrott, J Scott; Peters, Emily N; Hand, Rosa K; Byham-Gray, Laura D

2017-09-01

To compare the 7-point subjective global assessment (SGA) and the protein energy wasting (PEW) score with nutrition evaluations conducted by registered dietitian nutritionists in identifying PEW risk in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis. This study is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study entitled "Development and Validation of a Predictive energy Equation in Hemodialysis". PEW risk identified by the 7-point SGA and the PEW score was compared against the nutrition evaluations conducted by registered dietitian nutritionists through data examination from the original study (reference standard). A total of 133 patients were included for the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV), positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR) of both scoring tools were calculated when compared against the reference standard. The patients were predominately African American (n = 112, 84.2%), non-Hispanic (n = 101, 75.9%), and male (n = 80, 60.2%). Both the 7-point SGA (sensitivity = 78.6%, specificity = 59.1%, PPV = 33.9%, NPV = 91.2%, PLR = 1.9, and NLR = 0.4) and the PEW score (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 28.6%, PPV = 27.2%, NPV = 100%, PLR = 1.4, and NLR = 0) were more sensitive than specific in identifying PEW risk. The 7-point SGA may miss 21.4% patients having PEW and falsely identify 40.9% of patients who do not have PEW. The PEW score can identify PEW risk in all patients, but 71.4% of patients identified may not have PEW risk. Both the 7-point SGA and the PEW score could identify PEW risk. The 7-point SGA was more specific, and the PEW score was more sensitive. Both scoring tools were found to be clinically confident in identifying patients who were actually not at PEW risk. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical utility of the HEART score in patients admitted with chest pain to an inner-city hospital in the USA.

PubMed

Patnaik, Soumya; Shah, Mahek; Alhamshari, Yaser; Ram, Pradhum; Puri, Ritika; Lu, Marvin; Balderia, Percy; Imms, John B; Maludum, Obiora; Figueredo, Vincent M

2017-06-01

Chest pain is one of the most common presentations to a hospital, and appropriate triaging of these patients can be challenging. The HEART score has been used for such purposes in some countries and only a few validation studies from the USA are available. We aim to determine the utility of the HEART score in patients presenting with chest pain to an inner-city hospital in the USA. We retrospectively screened 417 consecutive patients admitted with chest pain to the observation/telemetry units at Einstein Medical Center Philadelphia. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 299 patients were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into low-risk (0-3) and intermediate-high (≥4)-risk HEART score groups. Baseline characteristics, thrombolysis in myocardial infarction score, need for revascularization during index hospitalization, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 6 weeks and 12 months were recorded. There were 98 and 201 patients in the low-score group and intermediate-high-score group, respectively. Compared with the low-score group, patients in the intermediate-high-risk group had a higher incidence of revascularization during the index hospital stay (16.4 vs. 0%; P=0.001), longer hospital stay, higher MACE at 6 weeks (9.5 vs. 0%) and 12 months (20.4 vs. 3.1%), and higher cardiac readmissions. HEART score of at least 4 independently predicted MACE at 12 months (odds ratio 7.456, 95% confidence interval: 2.175-25.56; P=0.001) after adjusting for other risk factors in regression analysis. HEART score of at least 4 was predictive of worse outcomes in patients with chest pain in an inner-city USA hospital. If validated in multicenter prospective studies, the HEART score could potentially be useful in risk-stratifying patients presenting with chest pain in the USA and could impact clinical decision-making.

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score predicts biochemical recurrence in intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose escalation or low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy.

PubMed

Krishnan, Vimal; Delouya, Guila; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Larrivée, Sandra; Taussky, Daniel

2014-12-01

To study the prognostic value of the University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score to predict biochemical failure (bF) after various doses of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and/or permanent seed low-dose rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy (PB). We retrospectively analysed 345 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with PSA levels of 10-20 ng/mL and/or Gleason 7 including 244 EBRT patients (70.2-79.2 Gy) and 101 patients treated with LDR PB. The minimum follow-up was 3 years. No patient received primary androgen-deprivation therapy. bF was defined according to the Phoenix definition. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the differences between CAPRA groups. The overall bF rate was 13% (45/345). The CAPRA score, as a continuous variable, was statistically significant in multivariate analysis for predicting bF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.72, P = 0.006). There was a trend for a lower bF rate in patients treated with LDR PB when compared with those treated by EBRT ≤ 74 Gy (HR 0.234, 95% CI 0.05-1.03, P = 0.055) in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup of patients with a CAPRA score of 3-5, CAPRA remained predictive of bF as a continuous variable (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.27, P = 0.047) in multivariate analysis. The CAPRA score is useful for predicting biochemical recurrence in patients treated for intermediate-risk prostate cancer with EBRT or LDR PB. It could help in treatment decisions. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study.

PubMed

Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J

2015-08-01

To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score <4; secondary outcomes Apgar score <7, intrauterine fetal death, perinatal mortality, congenital anomalies, small for gestational age, asphyxia related morbidity, and cesarean delivery. The risks of birth asphyxia and related morbidity were calculated in women who conceived either through MAR or spontaneously (SC), with a subgroup analysis for in vitro fertilization (IVF). An additional propensity score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score <4 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.29; 95% CI, 1.14-1.46) and intrauterine fetal death (adjusted OR 1.61; 95% CI, 1.35-1.91). After propensity score matching, the risk of an Apgar score <4 was comparable between MAR and SC singletons (OR 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87-1.14). Cesarean delivery for both fetal distress and nonprogressive labor occurred more among MAR pregnancies compared with SC pregnancies. Term singletons conceived after MAR have an increased risk of morbidity related to birth asphyxia. Because this is mainly due to maternal characteristics, obstetric caregivers should be aware that the increased rates of cesareans reflect the behavior of women and physicians rather than increased perinatal complications. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design of Work Facilities for Reducing Musculoskeletal Disorders Risk in Paper Pallet Assembly Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mardi Safitri, Dian; Arfi Nabila, Zahra; Azmi, Nora

2018-03-01

Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSD) is one of the ergonomic risks due to manual activity, non-neutral posture and repetitive motion. The purpose of this study is to measure risk and implement ergonomic interventions to reduce the risk of MSD on the paper pallet assembly work station. Measurements to work posture are done by Ovako Working Posture Analysis (OWAS) methods and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) method, while the measurement of work repetitiveness was using Strain Index (SI) method. Assembly processes operators are identified has the highest risk level. OWAS score, Strain Index, and REBA values are 4, 20.25, and 11. Ergonomic improvements are needed to reduce that level of risk. Proposed improvements will be developed using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) method applied with Axiomatic House of Quality (AHOQ) and Morphological Chart. As the result, risk level based on OWAS score & REBA score turn out from 4 & 11 to be 1 & 2. Biomechanics analysis of the operator also shows the decreasing values for L4-L5 moment, compression, joint shear, and joint moment strength.

Use of allele scores as instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

2013-01-01

Background An allele score is a single variable summarizing multiple genetic variants associated with a risk factor. It is calculated as the total number of risk factor-increasing alleles for an individual (unweighted score), or the sum of weights for each allele corresponding to estimated genetic effect sizes (weighted score). An allele score can be used in a Mendelian randomization analysis to estimate the causal effect of the risk factor on an outcome. Methods Data were simulated to investigate the use of allele scores in Mendelian randomization where conventional instrumental variable techniques using multiple genetic variants demonstrate ‘weak instrument’ bias. The robustness of estimates using the allele score to misspecification (for example non-linearity, effect modification) and to violations of the instrumental variable assumptions was assessed. Results Causal estimates using a correctly specified allele score were unbiased with appropriate coverage levels. The estimates were generally robust to misspecification of the allele score, but not to instrumental variable violations, even if the majority of variants in the allele score were valid instruments. Using a weighted rather than an unweighted allele score increased power, but the increase was small when genetic variants had similar effect sizes. Naive use of the data under analysis to choose which variants to include in an allele score, or for deriving weights, resulted in substantial biases. Conclusions Allele scores enable valid causal estimates with large numbers of genetic variants. The stringency of criteria for genetic variants in Mendelian randomization should be maintained for all variants in an allele score. PMID:24062299

Financial validation of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score predicting prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracic surgery lobectomy.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Pompili, Cecilia; Dinesh, Padma; Bassi, Vinod; Imperatori, Andrea

2018-04-27

The objective of this study was to verify whether the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons prolonged air leak risk score for video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy was associated with incremental postoperative costs. We retrospectively analyzed 353 patients subjected to video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy or segmentectomy (April 2014 to March 2016). Postoperative costs were obtained from the hospital Finance Department. Patients were grouped in different classes of risk according to their prolonged air leak risk score. To verify the independent association of the prolonged air leak risk score with postoperative costs, we performed a stepwise multivariable regression analysis in which the dependent variable was postoperative cost. Prolonged air leak developed in 56 patients (15.9%). Their length of stay was 3 days longer compared with those without prolonged air leak (8.3 vs 5.4, P < .0001). Their postoperative cost was higher than that of patients without prolonged air leak: $5939.8 versus $4381.7 (P = .001). After grouping the patients according to their prolonged air leak risk score, prolonged air leak incidence was 12.3% in class A, 13.7% in class B, 28.8% in class C, and 22.2% in class D (P = .020). The average postoperative cost was $4031.0 in class A, $4498.2 in class B, $6146.6 in class C, and $6809.3 in class D (analysis of variance test, P < .001). Multivariable regression analysis showed that being in classes C and D of PAL score (P = .001) and the presence of cardiopulmonary complications (P < .0001) were the only independent factors significantly associated with postoperative costs. We financially validated the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons prolonged air leak risk score for video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomies, which appears useful in selecting those patients in whom the application of additional intraoperative interventions to avoid prolonged air leak may be more cost-effective. Copyright © 2018 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The utility of the additive EuroSCORE, RIFLE and AKIN staging scores in the prediction and diagnosis of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Duthie, Fiona A I; McGeehan, Paul; Hill, Sharleen; Phelps, Richard; Kluth, David C; Zamvar, Vipin; Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A

2014-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is a complication associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. We compared staging systems for the diagnosis of AKI after cardiac surgery, and assessed pre-operative factors predictive of post-operative AKI. Clinical data, surgical risk scores, procedure and clinical outcome were obtained on all 4,651 patients undergoing cardiac surgery to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh between April 2006 and March 2011, of whom 4,572 had sufficient measurements of creatinine before and after surgery to permit inclusion and analysis. The presence of AKI was assessed using the AKIN and RIFLE criteria. By AKIN criteria, 12.4% of the studied population developed AKI versus 6.5% by RIFLE criteria. Any post-operation AKI was associated with increased mortality from 2.2 to 13.5% (relative risk 7.0, p < 0.001), and increased inpatient stay from a median of 7 (IQR 4) to 9 (IQR 11) days (p < 0.05). Patients identified by AKIN, but not RIFLE, had a mean peak creatinine rise of 34% from baseline and had a significantly lower mortality compared to RIFLE-'Risk' AKI (mortality 6.1 vs. 9.7%; p < 0.05). Pre-operative creatinine, diabetes, NYHA Class IV dyspnoea and EuroSCORE-1 (a surgical risk score) all predicted subsequent AKI on multivariate analysis. EuroSCORE-1 outperformed any single demographic factor in predicting post-operative AKI risk, equating to an 8% increase in relative risk for each additional point. AKI after cardiac surgery is associated with delayed discharge and high mortality rates. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria identify patients at a range of AKI severity levels suitable for trial recruitment. The utility of EuroSCORE as a risk stratification tool to identify high AKI-risk subjects for prospective intervention merits further study.

Lower Quarter Y-Balance Test Scores and Lower Extremity Injury in NCAA Division I Athletes.

PubMed

Lai, Wilson C; Wang, Dean; Chen, James B; Vail, Jeremy; Rugg, Caitlin M; Hame, Sharon L

2017-08-01

Functional movement tests that are predictive of injury risk in National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) athletes are useful tools for sports medicine professionals. The Lower Quarter Y-Balance Test (YBT-LQ) measures single-leg balance and reach distances in 3 directions. To assess whether the YBT-LQ predicts the laterality and risk of sports-related lower extremity (LE) injury in NCAA athletes. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. The YBT-LQ was administered to 294 NCAA Division I athletes from 21 sports during preparticipation physical examinations at a single institution. Athletes were followed prospectively over the course of the corresponding season. Correlation analysis was performed between the laterality of reach asymmetry and composite scores (CS) versus the laterality of injury. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the optimal asymmetry cutoff score for YBT-LQ. A multivariate regression analysis adjusting for sex, sport type, body mass index, and history of prior LE surgery was performed to assess predictors of earlier and higher rates of injury. Neither the laterality of reach asymmetry nor the CS correlated with the laterality of injury. ROC analysis found optimal cutoff scores of 2, 9, and 3 cm for anterior, posteromedial, and posterolateral reach, respectively. All of these potential cutoff scores, along with a cutoff score of 4 cm used in the majority of prior studies, were associated with poor sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, none of the asymmetric cutoff scores were associated with earlier or increased rate of injury in the multivariate analyses. YBT-LQ scores alone do not predict LE injury in this collegiate athlete population. Sports medicine professionals should be cautioned against using the YBT-LQ alone to screen for injury risk in collegiate athletes.

Newly identified poor prognostic factors for adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma treated with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Tokunaga, Masahito; Uto, Hirofumi; Takeuchi, Shogo; Nakano, Nobuaki; Kubota, Ayumu; Tokunaga, Mayumi; Takatsuka, Yoshifusa; Seto, Masao; Ido, Akio; Utsunomiya, Atae

2017-01-01

To explore pre-transplantation prognostic factors for adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma (ATL), we retrospectively analyzed allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in 70 patients at our institute (63 acute type and seven lymphoma type patients). Forty-five patients died after HSCT and the three-year overall survival (OS) rate was 35.2%. By univariate analysis, the adverse prognostic factors for OS were performance status ≥2, hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI) score ≥3, European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) risk score ≥5, HSCT from an HLA-mismatched donor, serum soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) level ≥10,000 U/mL, lymphocyte count ≥4000/μL, and hemoglobin <9 g/dL at the time of HSCT. EBMT risk score and sIL-2R were identified as significant adverse prognostic factors using multivariate analysis. This analysis clearly demonstrates for the first time that HCT-CI and EBMT risk scores are reliable prognostic factors for ATL patients receiving allo-HSCT.

The Contribution of Human Factors in Military System Development: Methodological Considerations

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Risk/Uncertainty Analysis - Project Scoring - Utility Scales - Relevance Tree Techniques (Reverse Factor Analysis) 2. Computer Simulation Simulation...effectiveness of mathematical models for R&D project selection. Management Science, April 1973, 18. 6-43 .1~ *.-. Souder, W.E. h scoring methodology for...per some interval PROFICIENCY test scores (written) RADIATION radiation effects aircrew performance on radiation environments REACTION TIME 1) (time

Prognostic value of the Rockall score in patients with acute nonvariceal bleeding from the upper gastrointestinal tract.

PubMed

Cieniawski, Dominik; Kuźniar, Ewelina; Winiarski, Marek; Matłok, Maciej; Kostarczyk, Wojciech; Pedziwiatr, Michał

2013-01-01

Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common problem in everyday clinical practice. While treating patients affected by UGIB, the estimation of the risk of complications is very important. The Rockall Score is one of the methods used in clinical practice that allows doing that. The aim of this paper is to assess the usefulness of the aforementioned scoring system while treating patients with UGIB. The analysis included, 651 patients with nonvariceal UGIB. The average age of the group was 62.86+16.96 years. Each patient was subjected to the retrospective analysis according to the Rockall Scale's criteria. Then the entire group was divided into the complication risk groups according to the obtained amount of points (low<3, moderate 3 to 8, high>8). After dividing into groups the effort has been taken to find a relationship between Rockall Score points and the occurrences of individual complications. Mortality among the respondents amounted to 11.36%. The hospitalization of 97.70% patients with <3 points on the scale progressed without complications (p<0.001; X2=22.90). In the moderate risk group the highest frequency of re-bleeding and need for surgery were observed. Whereas among patients with >8 points the mortality of 78.95% was noted. Rockall Score is a simple and useful method for assessing prognosis for patients with the non-variceal UGIB. The highest scores are obtained by the patients with a great risk of demise. Rockall Score may be used for classifying patients to appropriate risk groups.

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct.

PubMed

Lee, Howard; Lee, Heechan; Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3-378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes.

Score tests for independence in semiparametric competing risks models.

PubMed

Saïd, Mériem; Ghazzali, Nadia; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2009-12-01

A popular model for competing risks postulates the existence of a latent unobserved failure time for each risk. Assuming that these underlying failure times are independent is attractive since it allows standard statistical tools for right-censored lifetime data to be used in the analysis. This paper proposes simple independence score tests for the validity of this assumption when the individual risks are modeled using semiparametric proportional hazards regressions. It assumes that covariates are available, making the model identifiable. The score tests are derived for alternatives that specify that copulas are responsible for a possible dependency between the competing risks. The test statistics are constructed by adding to the partial likelihoods for the individual risks an explanatory variable for the dependency between the risks. A variance estimator is derived by writing the score function and the Fisher information matrix for the marginal models as stochastic integrals. Pitman efficiencies are used to compare test statistics. A simulation study and a numerical example illustrate the methodology proposed in this paper.

Soccer Injury Movement Screen (SIMS) Composite Score Is Not Associated With Injury Among Semi-Professional Soccer Players.

PubMed

McCunn, Robert; Fünten, Karen Aus der; Whalan, Matthew; Sampson, John A; Meyer, Tim

2018-05-08

Study Design Prospective cohort. Background The association between movement quality and injury is equivocal. No soccer-specific movement assessment has been prospectively investigated in relation to injury risk. Objectives To investigate the association between a soccer-specific movement quality assessment and injury risk among semi-professional soccer players. Methods Semi-professional soccer players (n=306) from 12 clubs completed the Soccer Injury Movement Screen (SIMS) during the pre-season period. Individual training/match exposure and non-contact time loss injuries were recorded prospectively for the entirety of the 2016 season. Relative risks (RR) were calculated, and presented with 90% confidence intervals (CI), for the SIMS composite and individual sub-test scores from generalized linear models with Poisson distribution offset for exposure. Results When considering non-contact time loss lower extremity injuries (primary level of analysis), there was a most likely trivial association with the SIMS composite score. Similarly, SIMS composite score demonstrated most likely to likely trivial associations to all injury categories included in the secondary level of analysis (non-contact time loss hip/groin, thigh, knee and ankle injuries). When considering hamstring strains and ankle sprains specifically (tertiary level of analysis) the SIMS composite score, again, demonstrated very likely trivial associations. A total of 262 non-contact time loss injuries were recorded. The overall (training and match exposure combined) incidence of non-contact time loss injury was 12/1000 hours. Conclusion The SIMS composite score demonstrated no association to any of the investigated categories of soccer-related injury. The SIMS composite score should not be used to group players into 'high' or 'low' risk groups. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther, Epub 8 May 2018. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.8037.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease assessment and its relationship with cardiovascular risk SCORE in a healthy adult population: A cross-sectional community-based study.

PubMed

Mitu, Ovidiu; Roca, Mihai; Floria, Mariana; Petris, Antoniu Octavian; Graur, Mariana; Mitu, Florin

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship and the accuracy of SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project) risk correlated to multiple methods for determining subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a healthy population. This cross-sectional study included 120 completely asymptomatic subjects, with an age range 35-75 years, and randomly selected from the general population. The individuals were evaluated clinically and biochemical, and the SCORE risk was computed. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by various methods: carotid ultrasound for intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque detection; aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV); echocardiography - left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and aortic atheromatosis (AA); ankle-brachial index (ABI). SCORE mean value was 2.95±2.71, with 76% of subjects having SCORE <5. Sixty-four percent of all subjects have had increased subclinical CVD changes, and SCORE risk score was correlated positively with all markers, except for ABI. In the multivariate analysis, increased cIMT and aPWV were significantly associated with high value of SCORE risk (OR 4.14, 95% CI: 1.42-12.15, p=0.009; respectively OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.01-1.96, p=0.039). A positive linear relationship was observed between 3 territories of subclinical CVD (cIMT, LVMI, aPWV) and SCORE risk (p<0.0001). There was evidence of subclinical CVD in 60% of subjects with a SCORE value <5. As most subjects with a SCORE value <5 have subclinical CVD abnormalities, a more tailored subclinical CVD primary prevention program should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Lamoureux, Christine; Molodecky, Natalie A; Lyons, Hil; Grassly, Nicholas C; Tallis, Graham

2017-05-26

The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.

Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects.

PubMed

Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H

2017-07-01

The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10 -8 ) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10 -8 ) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.

An internally validated new clinical and inflammation-based prognostic score for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

PubMed

Diaz-Beveridge, R; Bruixola, G; Lorente, D; Caballero, J; Rodrigo, E; Segura, Á; Akhoundova, D; Giménez, A; Aparicio, J

2018-03-01

Sorafenib is a standard treatment for patients (pts) with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC), although the clinical benefit is heterogeneous between different pts groups. Among novel prognostic factors, a low baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (bNLR) and early-onset diarrhoea have been linked with a better prognosis. To identify prognostic factors in pts with aHCC treated with 1st-line sorafenib and to develop a new prognostic score to guide management. Retrospective review of 145 pts bNLR, overall toxicity, early toxicity rates and overall survival (OS) were assessed. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for OS was performed. The prognostic score was calculated from the coefficients found in the Cox analysis. ROC curves and pseudoR2 index were used for internal validation. Discrimination ability and calibration were tested by Harrel's c-index (HCI) and Akaike criteria (AIC). The optimal bNLR cut-off for the prediction of OS was 4 (AUC 0.62). Independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis for OS were performance status (PS) (p < .0001), Child-Pugh (C-P) score (p = 0.005), early-onset diarrhoea (p = 0.006) and BNLR (0.011). The prognostic score based on these four variables was found efficient (HCI = 0.659; AIC = 1.180). Four risk groups for OS could be identified: a very low-risk (median OS = 48.6 months), a low-risk (median OS = 11.6 months), an intermediate-risk (median OS = 8.3 months) and a high-risk group (median OS = 4.4 months). PS and C-P score were the main prognostic factors for OS, followed by early-onset diarrhoea and bNLR. We identified four risk groups for OS depending on these parameters. This prognostic model could be useful for patient stratification, but an external validation is needed.

Continuous metabolic syndrome risk score, body mass index percentile, and leisure time physical activity in American children.

PubMed

Okosun, Ike S; Boltri, John M; Lyn, Rodney; Davis-Smith, Monique

2010-08-01

The objective of this study was to determine independent and joint association of body mass index (BMI) percentile and leisure time physical activity (LTPA) with continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) risk score in 12- to 17-year-old American children. The 2003 to 2004 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data were used for this investigation. LTPA was determined by self-report. cMetS risk score was calculated using standardized residuals of arterial blood pressure, triglycerides, glucose, waist circumference, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate association of BMI percentile and LTPA with cMetS risk score, adjusting for confounders. Increased BMI percentile and LTPA were each associated with increased and decreased cMetS risk score, respectively ((P<.01). There was a gradient of increasing cMetS risk score by BMI percentile cutpoints, from healthy weight (-0.77) to overweight (3.43) and obesity (6.40) ((P<.05). A gradient of decreasing cMetS risk score from sedentary (0.88) to moderate (0.17) and vigorous (-0.42) LTPA levels was also observed (P<.01). The result of this study suggests that promoting LTPA at all levels of weight status may help to reverse the increasing trends of metabolic syndrome in US children. (c) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System and Caprini Risk Assessment Model in Predicting Venous Thromboembolic Outcomes in Plastic Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Shaikh, Mohammad-Ali; Jeong, Haneol S; Mastro, Andrew; Davis, Kathryn; Lysikowski, Jerzy; Kenkel, Jeffrey M

2016-04-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) can be a fatal outcome of plastic surgery. Risk assessment models attempt to determine a patient's risk, yet few studies have compared different models in plastic surgery patients. The authors investigated preoperative ASA physical status and 2005 Caprini scores to determine which model was more predictive of VTE. A retrospective chart review examined 1801 patients undergoing contouring and reconstructive procedures from January 2008 to January 2012. Patients were grouped into risk tiers for ASA scores (1-2 = low, 3+ = high) with 2 cutoffs for Caprini scores (1-4 = low, 5+ high; 1-5 = low, 6+ = high), then re-stratified into 3 tiers using Caprini score cutoffs (1-4 = low, 5-8 = high, 9+ = highest; 1-5 = low, 6-8 = high, 9+ = highest). Median scores of VTE patients were compared to those without VTE. Odds ratio and chi-squared analyses were performed. Of the 1598 patients included in the study, 1.50% developed VTE. Median ASA scores differed significantly between comparison groups but Caprini scores did not vary regardless of cutoff. When examining the 2-tiered Caprini scores, using low risk = 1-5 showed a significant relationship between risk tier and DVT development (P = 0.0266). The ASA system yielded the highest odds ratio of VTE development between low and high-risk patients. The Caprini model captured more patients with VTE in its high-risk category. Combining the two models for a more heuristic approach to preoperative care may identify patients at higher risk. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cyber Contingency Analysis version 1.x

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Contingency analysis based approach for quantifying and examining the resiliency of a cyber system in respect to confidentiality, integrity and availability. A graph representing an organization's cyber system and related resources is used for the availability contingency analysis. The mission critical paths associated with an organization are used to determine the consequences of a potential contingency. A node (or combination of nodes) are removed from the graph to analyze a particular contingency. The value of all mission critical paths that are disrupted by that contingency are used to quantify its severity. A total severity score can be calculated based onmore » the complete list of all these contingencies. A simple n1 analysis can be done in which only one node is removed at a time for the analysis. We can also compute nk analysis, where k is the number of nodes to simultaneously remove for analysis. A contingency risk score can also be computed, which takes the probability of the contingencies into account. In addition to availability, we can also quantify confidentiality and integrity scores for the system. These treat user accounts as potential contingencies. The amount (and type) of files that an account can read to is used to compute the confidentiality score. The amount (and type) of files that an account can write to is used to compute the integrity score. As with availability analysis, we can use this information to compute total severity scores in regards to confidentiality and integrity. We can also take probability into account to compute associated risk scores.« less

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Apgar Score Is Related to Development of Atopic Dermatitis: Cotwin Control Study

PubMed Central

Naeser, Vibeke; Kahr, Niklas; Stensballe, Lone Graff; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm; Skytthe, Axel; Backer, Vibeke

2013-01-01

Aim. To study the impact of birth characteristics on the risk of atopic dermatitis in a twin population. Methods. In a population-based questionnaire study of 10,809 twins, 3–9 years of age, from the Danish Twin Registry, we identified 907 twin pairs discordant for parent-reported atopic dermatitis. We cross-linked with data from the Danish National Birth Registry and performed cotwin control analysis in order to test the impact of birth characteristics on the risk of atopic dermatitis. Results. Apgar score, OR (per unit) = 1.23 (1.06–1.44), P = 0.008, and female sex, OR = 1.31 (1.06–1.61), P = 0.012, were risk factors for atopic dermatitis in cotwin control analysis, whereas birth anthropometric factors were not significantly related to disease development. Risk estimates in monozygotic and dizygotic twins were not significantly different for the identified risk factors. Conclusions. In this population-based cotwin control study, high Apgar score was a risk factor for atopic dermatitis. This novel finding must be confirmed in subsequent studies. PMID:24222775

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana.

PubMed

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S-N; Kirby, Ryan

2016-02-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana

PubMed Central

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Kirby, Ryan

2016-01-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders. PMID:27330828

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

Benefits and risks of emerging technologies: integrating life cycle assessment and decision analysis to assess lumber treatment alternatives.

PubMed

Tsang, Michael P; Bates, Matthew E; Madison, Marcus; Linkov, Igor

2014-10-07

Assessing the best options among emerging technologies (e.g., new chemicals, nanotechnologies) is complicated because of trade-offs across benefits and risks that are difficult to quantify given limited and fragmented availability of information. This study demonstrates the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to address technology alternative selection decisions. As a case study, prioritization of six lumber treatment alternatives [micronized copper quaternary (MCQ); alkaline copper quaternary (ACQ); water-borne copper naphthenate (CN); oil-borne copper naphthenate (CNo); water-borne copper quinolate (CQ); and water-borne zinc naphthenate (ZN)] for military use are considered. Multiattribute value theory (MAVT) is used to derive risk and benefit scores. Risk scores are calculated using a cradle-to-gate LCA. Benefit scores are calculated by scoring of cost, durability, and corrosiveness criteria. Three weighting schemes are used, representing Environmental, Military and Balanced stakeholder perspectives. Aggregated scores from all three perspectives show CQ to be the least favorable alterative. MCQ is identified as the most favorable alternative from the Environmental stakeholder perspective. From the Military stakeholder perspective, ZN is determined to be the most favorable alternative, followed closely by MCQ. This type of scoring and ranking of multiple heterogeneous criteria in a systematic and transparent way facilitates better justification of technology selection and regulation.

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

PubMed

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years.

PubMed

Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J

2014-01-01

Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (p<0.001). ΔSAF was negatively related to Δbodyweight but not to ΔSCORE%, or its components. At follow-up, SAF was higher in 11 patients with a history of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

Applying machine learning to pattern analysis for automated in-design layout optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cain, Jason P.; Fakhry, Moutaz; Pathak, Piyush; Sweis, Jason; Gennari, Frank; Lai, Ya-Chieh

2018-04-01

Building on previous work for cataloging unique topological patterns in an integrated circuit physical design, a new process is defined in which a risk scoring methodology is used to rank patterns based on manufacturing risk. Patterns with high risk are then mapped to functionally equivalent patterns with lower risk. The higher risk patterns are then replaced in the design with their lower risk equivalents. The pattern selection and replacement is fully automated and suitable for use for full-chip designs. Results from 14nm product designs show that the approach can identify and replace risk patterns with quantifiable positive impact on the risk score distribution after replacement.

Lung cancer in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Development and validation of the COPD Lung Cancer Screening Score.

PubMed

de-Torres, Juan P; Wilson, David O; Sanchez-Salcedo, Pablo; Weissfeld, Joel L; Berto, Juan; Campo, Arantzazu; Alcaide, Ana B; García-Granero, Marta; Celli, Bartolome R; Zulueta, Javier J

2015-02-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at high risk for lung cancer (LC) and represent a potential target to improve the diagnostic yield of screening programs. To develop a predictive score for LC risk for patients with COPD. The Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) databases were analyzed. Only patients with COPD on spirometry were included. By logistic regression we determined which factors were independently associated with LC in PLuSS and developed a COPD LC screening score (COPD-LUCSS) to be validated in P-IELCAP. By regression analysis, age greater than 60, body mass index less than 25 kg/m(2), pack-years history greater than 60, and emphysema presence were independently associated with LC diagnosis and integrated into the COPD-LUCSS, which ranges from 0 to 10 points. Two COPD-LUCSS risk categories were proposed: low risk (scores 0-6) and high risk (scores 7-10). In comparison with low-risk patients, in both cohorts LC risk increased 3.5-fold in the high-risk category. The COPD-LUCSS is a good predictor of LC risk in patients with COPD participating in LC screening programs. Validation in two different populations adds strength to the findings.

Prediction for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance by Using Weighted Genetic Risk Score Identified From Genome-Wide Association Study in Kawasaki Disease.

PubMed

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Wong, Henry Sung-Ching; Chang, Wei-Pin; Chen, Ben-Kuen; Wu, Mei-Shin; Yang, Kuender D; Hsieh, Kai-Sheng; Hsu, Yu-Wen; Liu, Shih-Feng; Liu, Xiao; Chang, Wei-Chiao

2017-10-01

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is the treatment of choice in Kawasaki disease (KD). IVIG is used to prevent cardiovascular complications related to KD. However, a proportion of KD patients have persistent fever after IVIG treatment and are defined as IVIG resistant. To develop a risk scoring system based on genetic markers to predict IVIG responsiveness in KD patients, a total of 150 KD patients (126 IVIG responders and 24 IVIG nonresponders) were recruited for this study. A genome-wide association analysis was performed to compare the 2 groups and identified risk alleles for IVIG resistance. A weighted genetic risk score was calculated by the natural log of the odds ratio multiplied by the number of risk alleles. Eleven single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified by genome-wide association study. The KD patients were categorized into 3 groups based on their calculated weighted genetic risk score. Results indicated a significant association between weighted genetic risk score (groups 3 and 4 versus group 1) and the response to IVIG (Fisher's exact P value 4.518×10 - 03 and 8.224×10 - 10 , respectively). This is the first weighted genetic risk score study based on a genome-wide association study in KD. The predictive model integrated the additive effects of all 11 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to provide a prediction of the responsiveness to IVIG. © 2017 The Authors.

The PEDro scale had acceptably high convergent validity, construct validity, and interrater reliability in evaluating methodological quality of pharmaceutical trials.

PubMed

Yamato, Tie Parma; Maher, Chris; Koes, Bart; Moseley, Anne

2017-06-01

The Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale has been widely used to investigate methodological quality in physiotherapy randomized controlled trials; however, its validity has not been tested for pharmaceutical trials. The aim of this study was to investigate the validity and interrater reliability of the PEDro scale for pharmaceutical trials. The reliability was also examined for the Cochrane Back and Neck (CBN) Group risk of bias tool. This is a secondary analysis of data from a previous study. We considered randomized placebo controlled trials evaluating any pain medication for chronic spinal pain or osteoarthritis. Convergent validity was evaluated by correlating the PEDro score with the summary score of the CBN risk of bias tool. The construct validity was tested using a linear regression analysis to determine the degree to which the total PEDro score is associated with treatment effect sizes, journal impact factor, and the summary score for the CBN risk of bias tool. The interrater reliability was estimated using the Prevalence and Bias Adjusted Kappa coefficient and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the PEDro scale and CBN risk of bias tool. Fifty-three trials were included, with 91 treatment effect sizes included in the analyses. The correlation between PEDro scale and CBN risk of bias tool was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76-0.88) after adjusting for reliability, indicating strong convergence. The PEDro score was inversely associated with effect sizes, significantly associated with the summary score for the CBN risk of bias tool, and not associated with the journal impact factor. The interrater reliability for each item of the PEDro scale and CBN risk of bias tool was at least substantial for most items (>0.60). The intraclass correlation coefficient for the PEDro score was 0.80 (95% CI 0.68-0.88), and for the CBN, risk of bias tool was 0.81 (95% CI 0.69-0.88). There was evidence for the convergent and construct validity for the PEDro scale when used to evaluate methodological quality of pharmacological trials. Both risk of bias tools have acceptably high interrater reliability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the risk of patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 to harbor a higher grade cancer.

PubMed

Gofrit, Ofer N; Zorn, Kevin C; Taxy, Jerome B; Lin, Shang; Zagaja, Gregory P; Steinberg, Gary D; Shalhav, Arieh L

2007-11-01

Prostate cancer Gleason score 3 + 3 = 6 is currently the most common score assigned on prostatic biopsies. We analyzed the clinical variables that predict the likelihood of a patient with biopsy Gleason score 6 to harbor a higher grade tumor. The study population consisted of 448 patients with a mean age of 59.1 years who underwent radical prostatectomy between February 2003 to October 2006 for Gleason score 6 adenocarcinoma. The effect of preoperative variables on the probability of a Gleason score upgrade on final pathological evaluation was evaluated using logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis. Gleason score upgrade was found in 91 of 448 patients (20.3%). Logistic regression showed that only serum prostate specific antigen and the greatest percent of cancer in a core were significantly associated with a score upgrade (p = 0.0014 and 0.023, respectively). Classification and regression tree analysis showed that the risk of a Gleason score upgrade was 62% when serum prostate specific antigen was higher than 12 ng/ml and 18% when serum prostate specific antigen was 12 ng/ml or less. In patients with serum prostate specific antigen lower than 12 ng/ml the risk of a score upgrade could be dichotomized at a greatest percent of cancer in a core of 5%. The risk was 22.6% and 10.5% when the greatest percent of cancer in a core was higher than 5% and 5% or lower, respectively. The probability of patients with a prostate biopsy Gleason score of 6 to conceal a Gleason score of 7 or higher can be predicted using serum prostate specific antigen and the greatest percent of cancer in a core. With these parameters it is possible to predict upgrade rates as high as 62% and as low as 10.5%.

The use of automated Ki67 analysis to predict Oncotype DX risk-of-recurrence categories in early-stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Thakur, Satbir Singh; Li, Haocheng; Chan, Angela M Y; Tudor, Roxana; Bigras, Gilbert; Morris, Don; Enwere, Emeka K; Yang, Hua

2018-01-01

Ki67 is a commonly used marker of cancer cell proliferation, and has significant prognostic value in breast cancer. In spite of its clinical importance, assessment of Ki67 remains a challenge, as current manual scoring methods have high inter- and intra-user variability. A major reason for this variability is selection bias, in that different observers will score different regions of the same tumor. Here, we developed an automated Ki67 scoring method that eliminates selection bias, by using whole-slide analysis to identify and score the tumor regions with the highest proliferative rates. The Ki67 indices calculated using this method were highly concordant with manual scoring by a pathologist (Pearson's r = 0.909) and between users (Pearson's r = 0.984). We assessed the clinical validity of this method by scoring Ki67 from 328 whole-slide sections of resected early-stage, hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer. All patients had Oncotype DX testing performed (Genomic Health) and available Recurrence Scores. High Ki67 indices correlated significantly with several clinico-pathological correlates, including higher tumor grade (1 versus 3, P<0.001), higher mitotic score (1 versus 3, P<0.001), and lower Allred scores for estrogen and progesterone receptors (P = 0.002, 0.008). High Ki67 indices were also significantly correlated with higher Oncotype DX risk-of-recurrence group (low versus high, P<0.001). Ki67 index was the major contributor to a machine learning model which, when trained solely on clinico-pathological data and Ki67 scores, identified Oncotype DX high- and low-risk patients with 97% accuracy, 98% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Automated scoring of Ki67 can thus successfully address issues of consistency, reproducibility and accuracy, in a manner that integrates readily into the workflow of a pathology laboratory. Furthermore, automated Ki67 scores contribute significantly to models that predict risk of recurrence in breast cancer.

The WERCAP Screen and the WERC Stress Screen: psychometrics of self-rated instruments for assessing bipolar and psychotic disorder risk and perceived stress burden.

PubMed

Mamah, Daniel; Owoso, Akinkunle; Sheffield, Julia M; Bayer, Chelsea

2014-10-01

Identification of individuals in the prodromal phase of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia facilitates early intervention and promises an improved prognosis. There are no current assessment tools for clinical risk symptoms of bipolar disorder, and psychosis-risk assessment generally involves semi-structured interviews, which are time consuming and rater dependent. We present psychometric data on two novel quantitative questionnaires: the Washington Early Recognition Center Affectivity and Psychosis (WERCAP) Screen for assessing bipolar and psychotic disorder risk traits, and the accompanying WERC Stress Screen for assessing individual and total psychosocial stressor severities. Prevalence rates of the WERCAP Screen were evaluated among 171 community youth (aged 13-24 years); internal consistency was assessed and k-means cluster analysis was used to identify symptom groups. In 33 participants, test-retest reliability coefficients were assessed, and ROC curve analysis was used to determine the validity of the psychosis section of the WERCAP Screen (pWERCAP) against the Structured Interview of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms (SIPS). Correlations of the pWERCAP, the affectivity section of the WERCAP Screen (aWERCAP) and the WERC Stress Screen were examined to determine the relatedness of scores with cognition and clinical measures. Cluster analysis identified three groups of participants: a normative (47%), a psychosis-affectivity (18%) and an affectivity only (35%) group. Internal consistency of the aWERCAP and pWERCAP resulted in alphas of 0.87 and 0.92, and test-retest reliabilities resulted in intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.76 and 0.86 respectively. ROC curve analysis showed the optimal cut-point on the pWERCAP as a score of >30 (sensitivity: 0.89; specificity: 1.0). There was a significant negative correlation between aWERCAP scores and total cognition (R=-0.42), and between pWERCAP scores and sensorimotor processing speed. Total stress scores correlated significantly with scores on the aWERCAP (R=0.88), pWERCAP (R=0.62) and total cognition (R=-0.44). Our results show that the WERCAP Screen and the WERC Stress Screen are easy to administer and derived scores are related to cognitive and clinical traits. This suggests that their use could have particular benefits for epidemiologic studies and in busy clinical settings. Longitudinal studies would be required to evaluate clinical outcomes with high questionnaire scores. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atrial Fibrillation Genetic Risk and Ischemic Stroke Mechanisms.

PubMed

Lubitz, Steven A; Parsons, Owen E; Anderson, Christopher D; Benjamin, Emelia J; Malik, Rainer; Weng, Lu-Chen; Dichgans, Martin; Sudlow, Cathie L; Rothwell, Peter M; Rosand, Jonathan; Ellinor, Patrick T; Markus, Hugh S; Traylor, Matthew

2017-06-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a leading cause of cardioembolic stroke, but the relationship between AF and noncardioembolic stroke subtypes are unclear. Because AF may be unrecognized, and because AF has a substantial genetic basis, we assessed for predisposition to AF across ischemic stroke subtypes. We examined associations between AF genetic risk and Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment stroke subtypes in 2374 ambulatory individuals with ischemic stroke and 5175 without from the Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium 2 using logistic regression. We calculated AF genetic risk scores using single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with AF in a previous independent analysis across a range of preselected significance thresholds. There were 460 (19.4%) individuals with cardioembolic stroke, 498 (21.0%) with large vessel, 474 (20.0%) with small vessel, and 814 (32.3%) individuals with strokes of undetermined cause. Most AF genetic risk scores were associated with stroke, with the strongest association ( P =6×10 - 4 ) attributed to scores of 944 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (each associated with AF at P <1×10 - 3 in a previous analysis). Associations between AF genetic risk and stroke were enriched in the cardioembolic stroke subset (strongest P =1.2×10 - 9 , 944 single-nucleotide polymorphism score). In contrast, AF genetic risk was not significantly associated with noncardioembolic stroke subtypes. Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were specific for cardioembolic stroke. Incomplete workups and subtype misclassification may have limited the power to detect associations with strokes of undetermined pathogenesis. Future studies are warranted to determine whether AF genetic risk is a useful biomarker to enhance clinical discrimination of stroke pathogeneses. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Development and validation of a scoring index to predict the presence of lesions in capsule endoscopy in patients with suspected Crohn's disease of the small bowel: a Spanish multicenter study.

PubMed

Egea-Valenzuela, Juan; González Suárez, Begoña; Sierra Bernal, Cristian; Juanmartiñena Fernández, José Francisco; Luján-Sanchís, Marisol; San Juan Acosta, Mileidis; Martínez Andrés, Blanca; Pons Beltrán, Vicente; Sastre Lozano, Violeta; Carretero Ribón, Cristina; de Vera Almenar, Félix; Sánchez Cuenca, Joaquín; Alberca de Las Parras, Fernando; Rodríguez de Miguel, Cristina; Valle Muñoz, Julio; Férnandez-Urién Sainz, Ignacio; Torres González, Carolina; Borque Barrera, Pilar; Pérez-Cuadrado Robles, Enrique; Alonso Lázaro, Noelia; Martínez García, Pilar; Prieto de Frías, César; Carballo Álvarez, Fernando

2018-05-01

Capsule endoscopy (CE) is the first-line investigation in cases of suspected Crohn's disease (CD) of the small bowel, but the factors associated with a higher diagnostic yield remain unclear. Our aim is to develop and validate a scoring index to assess the risk of the patients in this setting on the basis of biomarkers. Data on fecal calprotectin, C-reactive protein, and other biomarkers from a population of 124 patients with suspected CD of the small bowel studied by CE and included in a PhD study were used to build a scoring index. This was first used on this population (internal validation process) and after that on a different set of patients from a multicenter study (external validation process). An index was designed in which every biomarker is assigned a score. Three risk groups have been established (low, intermediate, and high). In the internal validation analysis (124 individuals), patients had a 10, 46.5, and 81% probability of showing inflammatory lesions in CE in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. In the external validation analysis, including 410 patients from 12 Spanish hospitals, this probability was 15.8, 49.7, and 80.6% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. Results from the internal validation process show that the scoring index is coherent, and results from the external validation process confirm its reliability. This index can be a useful tool for selecting patients before CE studies in cases of suspected CD of the small bowel.

Effect of protected research time on ABSITE scores during general surgery residency.

PubMed

Orkin, Bruce A; Poirier, Jennifer; Kowal-Vern, Areta; Chan, Edie; Ohara, Karen; Mendoza, Brian

2018-02-01

Objective - To determine whether residents with one or more years of dedicated research time (Research Residents, RR) improved their ABSITE scores compared to those without (Non-Research Residents, N-RR). A retrospective review of general surgery residents' ABSITE scores from 1995 to 2016 was performed. RR were compared to N-RR. Additional analysis of At Risk (AR) v Not At Risk residents (NAR) (35th percentile as PGY1-2) was also performed. Cohort - 147 residents (34 RR and 113 N-RR). There were no differences in initial ABSITE scores (p = 0.47). By definition, the AR group had lower scores than NAR. Overall, post-research RR v PGY-4 N-RR scores did not differ (p = 0.84). Only the AR residents improved their scores (p = 0.0009 v NAR p = 0.42), regardless of research group (p = 0.70). Protected research time did not improve residents' ABSITE scores, regardless of initial scores. At Risk residents improved regardless of research group status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

PubMed

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous improvement of patients' risk stratification before cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of smoking cessation on estimated cardiovascular risk in Spanish type 2 diabetes mellitus patients: The DIABETES study.

PubMed

Luque-Ramírez, M; Sanz de Burgoa, V

2018-06-08

To assess the cardiovascular risk according to the UKPDS risk engine; Framingham function and score comparing clinical characteristics of diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) patients according to their habits status. A descriptive analysis was performed. A total of 890 Spanish patients with DM2 (444 smokers and 446 former-smokers) were included in a cross-sectional, observational, epidemiological multicenter nationwide study. Coronary heart disease risk at 10 years was calculated using the UKPDS risk score in both patient subgroups. Results were also compared with the Spanish calibrated (REGICOR) and updated Framingham risk scores. The estimated likelihood of coronary heart disease risk at 10 years according to the UKPDS score was significantly greater in smokers compared with former-smokers. This increased risk was greater in subjects with poorer blood glucose control, and was attenuated in women ≥60 years-old. The Framingham and UKPDS scores conferred a greater estimated risk than the REGICOR equation in Spanish diabetics. Quitting smoke in patients with DM2 is accompanied by a significant decrease in the estimated risk of coronary events as assessed by UKPDS. Our findings support the importance of quitting smoking among diabetic patients in order to reduce cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

Complete blood count risk score and its components, including RDW, are associated with mortality in the JUPITER trial.

PubMed

Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P

2015-04-01

Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score retained significance after adjustment: HR 1.97 (CI 1.46-2.67) and 1.51 (CI 1.13-2.00) for tertiles 3 and 2 vs. 1, respectively (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score also predicted CV mortality (p trend = 0.025) and the primary JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Ischemic stroke risk in East Asian patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bai, Ying; Shantsila, Alena; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-02-01

The use of anticoagulation for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 1 has been debated, partially due to limited data on ischemic stroke risk and specific clinical trials in these patients. East Asian patients have a different stroke risk profile compared to non-East Asians. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of ischemic stroke risk in AF patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 1 in East Asian countries. A comprehensive literature search for studies evaluating ischemic stroke risk related with AF with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 1 was conducted by two reviewers. We used a fixed-effect model first, then a random-effect model if heterogeneity was assessed with I 2 . After pooling 6 studies, the annual rate of ischemic stroke in East Asian patients with AF and a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 1 was 1.66% (95% CI: 0.71%-2.61%, I2 = 98.4%). There was a wide range in reported pooled rates between countries, from 0.59% to 3.13%. Significant difference existed not only in the community-based studies (Chinese: 2.10% vs. Japanese: 0.60%), but also from the hospital-based studies (Chinese: 3.55% vs. Japanese: 0.42%). Confining the analysis to those on no antithrombotic treatment had limited effect on the summary estimate (eg. Chinese: 4.28% vs. Japanese: 0.6%). In Chinese studies, ischemic stroke rate was lower in females than males (female: 1.40% vs. male: 1.79%). However, the low event rate in Japanese studies may reflect unrecorded anticoagulation status at follow-up. Some regional differences between East Asian countries were observed for ischemic stroke risk in patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 1. This may reflect methodological differences in studies and unrecorded anticoagulation use at followup, but further prospective studies are required to ascertain ischemic stroke risks, as well as the differences and reasons for this between East Asians and non-East Asians.

Familial psychosocial risk classes and preschooler body mass index: The moderating effect of caregiver feeding style.

PubMed

Horodynski, Mildred A; Brophy-Herb, Holly E; Martoccio, Tiffany L; Contreras, Dawn; Peterson, Karen; Shattuck, Mackenzie; Senehi, Neda; Favreau, Zachary; Miller, Alison L; Sturza, Julie; Kaciroti, Niko; Lumeng, Julie C

2018-04-01

Early child weight gain predicts adolescent and adult obesity, underscoring the need to determine early risk factors affecting weight status and how risk factors might be mitigated. Socioeconomic status, food insecurity, caregiver depressive symptomology, single parenthood, and dysfunctional parenting each have been linked to early childhood weight status. However, the associations between these risk factors and children's weight status may be moderated by caregiver feeding styles (CFS). Examining modifiable factors buffering risk could provide key information to guide early obesity intervention efforts. This analysis used baseline data from the Growing Healthy project that recruited caregivers/child dyads (N = 626) from Michigan Head Start programs. Caregivers were primarily non-Hispanic white (62%) and African American (30%). After using latent class analysis to identify classes of familial psychosocial risk, CFS was tested as a moderator of the association between familial psychosocial risk class and child body mass index (BMI) z-score. Latent class analysis identified three familial psychosocial risk classes: (1) poor, food insecure and depressed families; (2) poor, single parent families; and (3) low risk families. Interactive effects for uninvolved feeding styles and risk group indicated that children in poor, food insecure, and depressed families had higher BMI z-scores compared to children in the low risk group. Authoritative feeding styles in low risk and poor, food insecure, and depressed families showed lower child BMI z-scores relative to poor, single parent families with authoritative feeding styles. Uninvolved feeding styles intensified the risk and an authoritative feeding style muted the risk conferred by living in a poor, food-insecure, and depressed family. Interventions that promote responsive feeding practices could help decrease the associations of familial psychosocial risks with early child weight outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the Between the Flags calling criteria to the MEWS, NEWS and the electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage (eCART) score for the identification of deteriorating ward patients.

PubMed

Green, Malcolm; Lander, Harvey; Snyder, Ashley; Hudson, Paul; Churpek, Matthew; Edelson, Dana

2018-02-01

Traditionally, paper based observation charts have been used to identify deteriorating patients, with emerging recent electronic medical records allowing electronic algorithms to risk stratify and help direct the response to deterioration. We sought to compare the Between the Flags (BTF) calling criteria to the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage (eCART) score. Multicenter retrospective analysis of electronic health record data from all patients admitted to five US hospitals from November 2008-August 2013. Cardiac arrest, ICU transfer or death within 24h of a score RESULTS: Overall accuracy was highest for eCART, with an AUC of 0.801 (95% CI 0.799-0.802), followed by NEWS, MEWS and BTF respectively (0.718 [0.716-0.720]; 0.698 [0.696-0.700]; 0.663 [0.661-0.664]). BTF criteria had a high risk (Red Zone) specificity of 95.0% and a moderate risk (Yellow Zone) specificity of 27.5%, which corresponded to MEWS thresholds of >=4 and >=2, NEWS thresholds of >=5 and >=2, and eCART thresholds of >=12 and >=4, respectively. At those thresholds, eCART caught 22 more adverse events per 10,000 patients than BTF using the moderate risk criteria and 13 more using high risk criteria, while MEWS and NEWS identified the same or fewer. An electronically generated eCART score was more accurate than commonly used paper based observation tools for predicting the composite outcome of in-hospital cardiac arrest, ICU transfer and death within 24h of observation. The outcomes of this analysis lend weight for a move towards an algorithm based electronic risk identification tool for deteriorating patients to ensure earlier detection and prevent adverse events in the hospital. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Cannabis Use, Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia and Brain Maturation in Adolescence.

PubMed

French, Leon; Gray, Courtney; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, G Bruce; Richer, Louis; Séguin, Jean R; Veillette, Suzanne; Evans, C John; Artiges, Eric; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun W L; Bromberg, Uli; Bruehl, Ruediger; Buchel, Christian; Cattrell, Anna; Conrod, Patricia J; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Gallinat, Jurgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Lemaitre, Herve; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Orfanos, Dimitri Papadopoulos; Pangelinan, Melissa Marie; Poustka, Luise; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Timpson, Nic J; Schumann, Gunter; Smith, George Davey; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

2015-10-01

Cannabis use during adolescence is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia in men. Sex differences in the dynamics of brain maturation during adolescence may be of particular importance with regard to vulnerability of the male brain to cannabis exposure. To evaluate whether the association between cannabis use and cortical maturation in adolescents is moderated by a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. Observation of 3 population-based samples included initial analysis in 1024 adolescents of both sexes from the Canadian Saguenay Youth Study (SYS) and follow-up in 426 adolescents of both sexes from the IMAGEN Study from 8 European cities and 504 male youth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based in England. A total of 1577 participants (aged 12-21 years; 899 [57.0%] male) had (1) information about cannabis use; (2) imaging studies of the brain; and (3) a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia across 108 genetic loci identified by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Data analysis was performed from March 1 through December 31, 2014. Cortical thickness derived from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear regression tests were used to assess the relationships between cannabis use, cortical thickness, and risk score. Across the 3 samples of 1574 participants, a negative association was observed between cannabis use in early adolescence and cortical thickness in male participants with a high polygenic risk score. This observation was not the case for low-risk male participants or for the low- or high-risk female participants. Thus, in SYS male participants, cannabis use interacted with risk score vis-à-vis cortical thickness (P = .009); higher scores were associated with lower thickness only in males who used cannabis. Similarly, in the IMAGEN male participants, cannabis use interacted with increased risk score vis-à-vis a change in decreasing cortical thickness from 14.5 to 18.5 years of age (t137 = -2.36; P = .02). Finally, in the ALSPAC high-risk group of male participants, those who used cannabis most frequently (≥61 occasions) had lower cortical thickness than those who never used cannabis (difference in cortical thickness, 0.07 [95% CI, 0.01-0.12]; P = .02) and those with light use (<5 occasions) (difference in cortical thickness, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.03-0.18]; P = .004). Cannabis use in early adolescence moderates the association between the genetic risk for schizophrenia and cortical maturation among male individuals. This finding implicates processes underlying cortical maturation in mediating the link between cannabis use and liability to schizophrenia.

Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand

PubMed Central

Vijarnsorn, Chodchanok; Laohaprasitiporn, Duangmanee; Durongpisitkul, Kritvikrom; Chantong, Prakul; Soongswang, Jarupim; Cheungsomprasong, Paweena; Nana, Apichart; Sriyoschati, Somchai; Subtaweesin, Thawon; Thongcharoen, Punnarerk; Prakanrattana, Ungkab; Krobprachya, Jiraporn; Pooliam, Julaporn

2011-01-01

Objectives. To determine in-hospital mortality and complications of cardiac surgery in pediatric patients and identify predictors of hospital mortality. Methods. Records of pediatric patients who had undergone cardiac surgery in 2005 were reviewed retrospectively. The risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1) method, the Aristotle basic complexity score (ABC score), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery Mortality score (STS-EACTS score) were used as measures. Potential predictors were analyzed by risk analysis. Results. 230 pediatric patients had undergone congenital cardiac surgery. Overall, the mortality discharge was 6.1%. From the ROC curve of the RACHS-1, the ABC level, and the STS-EACTS categories, the validities were determined to be 0.78, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively. Mortality risks were found at the high complexity levels of the three tools, bypass time >85 min, and cross clamp time >60 min. Common morbidities were postoperative pyrexia, bleeding, and pleural effusion. Conclusions. Overall mortality and morbidities were 6.1%. The RACHS-1 method, ABC score, and STS-EACTS score were helpful for risk stratification. PMID:21738856

A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants.

PubMed

Roberts, G; Bellinger, D; McCormick, M C

2007-03-01

Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature (<37 weeks gestation) and LBW (<2500 g) children. The study subjects were 8 years of age and 494 had data available for reading achievement and 469 for mathematics. Potential predictor variables were categorized into 4 domains: sociodemographic, neonatal, maternal mental health and early childhood (ages 3 and 5). Regression analysis was used to create a model to predict reading and mathematics scores. Variables from all domains were significant in the model, predicting low achievement scores in reading (R (2) of 0.49, model p-value < .0001) and mathematics (R (2) of 0.44, model p-value < .0001). Significant risk factors for lower reading scores, were: lower maternal education and income, and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and male gender (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Lower mathematics scores were predicted by lower maternal education, income and age and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and higher head circumference (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Sequential early childhood risk factors in premature and LBW children lead to a cumulative risk for academic difficulties and can be used for early identification.

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

PubMed

Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

Alcohol and cancer: risk perception and risk denial beliefs among the French general population.

PubMed

Bocquier, Aurélie; Fressard, Lisa; Verger, Pierre; Legleye, Stéphane; Peretti-Watel, Patrick

2017-08-01

Worldwide, millions of deaths each year are attributed to alcohol. We sought to examine French people's beliefs about the risks of alcohol, their correlates, and their associations with alcohol use. Data came from the 2010 Baromètre Cancer survey, a random cross-sectional telephone survey of the French general population (n = 3359 individuals aged 15-75 years). Using principal component analysis of seven beliefs about alcohol risks, we built two scores (one assessing risk denial based on self-confidence and the other risk relativization). Two multiple linear regressions explored these scores' socio-demographic and perceived information level correlates. Multiple logistic regressions tested the associations of these scores with daily drinking and with heavy episodic drinking (HED). About 60% of the respondents acknowledged that alcohol increases the risk of cancer, and 89% felt well-informed about the risks of alcohol. Beliefs that may promote risk denial were frequent (e.g. 72% agreed that soda and hamburgers are as bad as alcohol for your health). Both risk denial and risk relativization scores were higher among men, older respondents and those of low socioeconomic status. The probability of daily drinking increased with the risk relativization score and that of HED with both scores. Beliefs that can help people to deny the cancer risks due to alcohol use are common in France and may exist in many other countries where alcoholic beverages have been an integral part of the culture. These results can be used to redesign public information campaigns about the risks of alcohol. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Brachytherapy improves biochemical failure-free survival in low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer compared with conventionally fractionated external beam radiation therapy: a propensity score matched analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Graham D; Pickles, Tom; Crook, Juanita; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Cury, Fabio L; Morris, Jim; Catton, Charles; Lukka, Himu; Warner, Andrew; Yang, Ying; Rodrigues, George

2015-03-01

To compare, in a retrospective study, biochemical failure-free survival (bFFS) and overall survival (OS) in low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients who received brachytherapy (BT) (either low-dose-rate brachytherapy [LDR-BT] or high-dose-rate brachytherapy with external beam radiation therapy [HDR-BT+EBRT]) versus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) alone. Patient data were obtained from the ProCaRS database, which contains 7974 prostate cancer patients treated with primary radiation therapy at four Canadian cancer institutions from 1994 to 2010. Propensity score matching was used to obtain the following 3 matched cohorts with balanced baseline prognostic factors: (1) low-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; (2) intermediate-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; and (3) intermediate-risk HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare differences in bFFS (primary endpoint) and OS in the 3 matched groups. Propensity score matching created acceptable balance in the baseline prognostic factors in all matches. Final matches included 2 1:1 matches in the intermediate-risk cohorts, LDR-BT versus EBRT (total n=254) and HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT (total n=388), and one 4:1 match in the low-risk cohort (LDR-BT:EBRT, total n=400). Median follow-up ranged from 2.7 to 7.3 years for the 3 matched cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that all BT treatment options were associated with statistically significant improvements in bFFS when compared with EBRT in all cohorts (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT hazard ratio [HR] 4.58, P=.001; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 2.08, P=.007; low-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 2.90, P=.004). No significant difference in OS was found in all comparisons (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 1.27, P=.687; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 1.55, P=.470; low-risk LDR-BT vs EBRT HR 1.41, P=.500). Propensity score matched analysis showed that BT options led to statistically significant improvements in bFFS in low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patient populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Brachytherapy Improves Biochemical Failure–Free Survival in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Compared With Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Graham D.; Pickles, Tom; Crook, Juanita

2015-03-01

Purpose: To compare, in a retrospective study, biochemical failure-free survival (bFFS) and overall survival (OS) in low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients who received brachytherapy (BT) (either low-dose-rate brachytherapy [LDR-BT] or high-dose-rate brachytherapy with external beam radiation therapy [HDR-BT+EBRT]) versus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) alone. Methods and Materials: Patient data were obtained from the ProCaRS database, which contains 7974 prostate cancer patients treated with primary radiation therapy at four Canadian cancer institutions from 1994 to 2010. Propensity score matching was used to obtain the following 3 matched cohorts with balanced baseline prognostic factors: (1) low-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; (2)more » intermediate-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; and (3) intermediate-risk HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare differences in bFFS (primary endpoint) and OS in the 3 matched groups. Results: Propensity score matching created acceptable balance in the baseline prognostic factors in all matches. Final matches included 2 1:1 matches in the intermediate-risk cohorts, LDR-BT versus EBRT (total n=254) and HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT (total n=388), and one 4:1 match in the low-risk cohort (LDR-BT:EBRT, total n=400). Median follow-up ranged from 2.7 to 7.3 years for the 3 matched cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that all BT treatment options were associated with statistically significant improvements in bFFS when compared with EBRT in all cohorts (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT hazard ratio [HR] 4.58, P=.001; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 2.08, P=.007; low-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 2.90, P=.004). No significant difference in OS was found in all comparisons (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 1.27, P=.687; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 1.55, P=.470; low-risk LDR-BT vs EBRT HR 1.41, P=.500). Conclusions: Propensity score matched analysis showed that BT options led to statistically significant improvements in bFFS in low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patient populations.« less

Dietary inflammatory index and risk of lung cancer and other respiratory conditions among heavy smokers in the COSMOS screening study.

PubMed

Maisonneuve, Patrick; Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R; Bellomi, Massimo; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Palli, Domenico; Veronesi, Giulia; Gnagnarella, Patrizia

2016-04-01

To test whether the inflammatory potential of diet, as measured using the dietary inflammatory index (DII), is associated with risk of lung cancer or other respiratory conditions and to compare results obtained with those based on the aMED score, an established dietary index that measures adherence to the traditional Mediterranean diet. In 4336 heavy smokers enrolled in a prospective, non-randomized lung cancer screening program, we measured participants' diets at baseline using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire from which dietary scores were calculated. Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models were used to assess association between the dietary indices and lung cancer diagnosed during annual screening, and other respiratory outcomes that were recorded at baseline, respectively. In multivariable analysis, adjusted for baseline lung cancer risk (estimated from age, sex, smoking history, and asbestos exposure) and total energy, both DII and aMED scores were associated with dyspnoea (p trend = 0.046 and 0.02, respectively) and radiological evidence of emphysema (p trend = 0.0002 and 0.02). After mutual adjustment of the two dietary scores, only the association between DII and radiological evidence of emphysema (Q4 vs. Q1, OR 1.30, 95 % CI 1.01-1.67, p trend = 0.012) remained statistically significant. At univariate analysis, both DII and aMED were associated with lung cancer risk, but in fully adjusted multivariate analysis, only the association with aMED remained statistically significant (p trend = 0.04). Among heavy smokers, a pro-inflammatory diet, as indicated by increasing DII score, is associated with dyspnoea and radiological evidence of emphysema. A traditional Mediterranean diet, which is associated with a lower DII, may lower lung cancer risk.

Dietary inflammatory index and risk of lung cancer and other respiratory conditions among heavy smokers in the COSMOS screening study

PubMed Central

Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R.; Bellomi, Massimo; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Palli, Domenico; Veronesi, Giulia; Gnagnarella, Patrizia

2016-01-01

Purpose To test whether the inflammatory potential of diet, as measured using the dietary inflammatory index (DII), is associated with risk of lung cancer or other respiratory conditions and to compare results obtained with those based on the aMED score, an established dietary index that measures adherence to the traditional Mediterranean diet. Methods In 4336 heavy smokers enrolled in a prospective, non-randomized lung cancer screening program, we measured participants’ diets at baseline using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire from which dietary scores were calculated. Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models were used to assess association between the dietary indices and lung cancer diagnosed during annual screening, and other respiratory outcomes that were recorded at baseline, respectively. Results In multivariable analysis, adjusted for baseline lung cancer risk (estimated from age, sex, smoking history, and asbestos exposure) and total energy, both DII and aMED scores were associated with dyspnoea (p trend = 0.046 and 0.02, respectively) and radiological evidence of emphysema (p trend = 0.0002 and 0.02). After mutual adjustment of the two dietary scores, only the association between DII and radiological evidence of emphysema (Q4 vs. Q1, OR 1.30, 95 % CI 1.01–1.67, p trend = 0.012) remained statistically significant. At univariate analysis, both DII and aMED were associated with lung cancer risk, but in fully adjusted multivariate analysis, only the association with aMED remained statistically significant (p trend = 0.04). Conclusions Among heavy smokers, a pro-inflammatory diet, as indicated by increasing DII score, is associated with dyspnoea and radiological evidence of emphysema. A traditional Mediterranean diet, which is associated with a lower DII, may lower lung cancer risk. PMID:25953452

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct

PubMed Central

Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Background Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. Methods A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. Results A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3–378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. Conclusions FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes. PMID:29089745

Risk score for pediatric intensive care unit admission in children undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and analysis of predictive factors for survival.

PubMed

González-Vicent, Marta; Marín, Catalina; Madero, Luis; Sevilla, Julián; Díaz, Miguel Angel

2005-10-01

The authors retrospectively analyzed postransplantation events in 198 children who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) between 1998 and 2002 to obtain a risk score for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission and to ascertain variables predicting a poor outcome. Thirty-six patients (18%) were admitted to the PICU. Median age was 9 years (range 1-18). On univariate analysis, variables significantly associated with PICU admission were male gender (P = 0.01), more than first complete remission (P = 0.003), allogeneic transplantation (P = 0.001), engraftment syndrome (P = 0.03), and acute graft-versus-host disease grade of at least two (P = 0.05). According to this, patients were divided in two levels of risk (low and high), with a respective probability of PICU admission of 8.8 +/- 2.2% and 63.8 +/- 8.8% (P < 0.0001). Seventeen (47%) patients were discharged from the PICU. The probability of event-free survival after PICU admission at 3 years was 24.2 +/- 7%. On univariate analysis, variables with a negative impact on event-free survival were type of transplantation, inotropic support, a C-reactive protein level of at least 10 mg/dL, and a high O-PRISM score. On multivariate analysis, the only variable that influenced event-free survival was the O-PRISM score (< or =10 points, 54.6 +/- 15.3%; >10 points, 8.6 +/- 5.8%; P = 0.007). In conclusion, the risk of PICU admission may be easily estimated using simple variables. A high O-PRISM score at the time of PICU admission predicts a dismal outcome.

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX score) in subclinical hyperthyroidism.

PubMed

Polovina, Snefana; Micić, Dragan; Miljić, Dragana; Milić, Nataga; Micić, Dugan; Popović, Vera

2015-06-01

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX score) is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. The bone mineral density (by DXA), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level, free thyroxine (fT4) level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and postmenopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 +/- 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI) 27.89 +/- 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 +/- 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 +/- 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 +/- 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 +/- 4.58 years). The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX score calculation was performed in both groups. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 +/- 1.58 vs. 4.35 +/- 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015). The FRAX score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 +/- 3.92 vs. 0.50 +/- 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022). There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (P > 0.05). The ability of the FRAX score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001) is presented by the area under the curve (AUC) plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX scores and thus greater risk for low-trauma hip fracture than euthyroid premenopausal women. Our results point to the use of FRAX calculator in monitoring pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism to detect subjects with high fracture risk in order to prevent further fractures.

Suicidality among pregnant women in Brazil: prevalence and risk factors.

PubMed

Castro e Couto, Tiago; Brancaglion, Mayra Yara Martins; Cardoso, Mauro Nogueira; Faria, Gustavo Coutinho; Garcia, Frederico Duarte; Nicolato, Rodrigo; Aguiar, Regina Amélia Lopes P; Leite, Henrique Vitor; Corrêa, Humberto

2016-04-01

Suicide is one of the major causes of preventable death. We evaluated suicidality among pregnant women who participated in prenatal care in Brazil. A total of 255 patients were assessed using semi-structured interviews as well as the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) Plus. Thereafter, Stata 12 was used to identify the significant predictors of current suicide risk (CSR) among participants using univariate and multivariate analyses (p < 0.05). According to MINI Plus module C, the lifetime suicide attempt rate was 12.55%. The overall CSR was 23.53%, distributed across risk levels of low (12.55%), moderate (1.18%), and high (9.80%). Our rates approximate those found in another Brazilian study (18.4%). Antenatal depression (AD), lifetime bipolar disorder, and any current anxiety disorder (as measured using the MINI) as well as BDI scores ≥15 and EPDS scores ≥11 were identified as positive risk factors in a univariate analysis (p < 0.001). These factors changed after a multivariate analysis was employed, and only years of education [odds ratio (OR) = 0.45; 95% confidence intervals (CIs) = 0.21-0.99], AD (OR = 3.42; 95% CIs = 1.37-8.53), and EPDS scores ≥11 (OR = 4.44; 95% CIs = 1.97-9.97) remained independent risk factors. AD and other psychiatric disorders were the primary risk factors for suicidality, although only the former remained an independent factor after a multivariate analysis. More than 10 years of education and EPDS scores ≥11 were also independent factors; the latter can be used as a screening tool for suicide risk.

Genetic variation in the ADIPOQ gene, adiponectin concentrations and risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian Randomization analysis using data from three large cohort studies.

PubMed

Nimptsch, Katharina; Song, Mingyang; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Katsoulis, Michail; Freisling, Heinz; Jenab, Mazda; Gunter, Marc J; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Bueno-De-Mesquita, H Bas; Chong, Dawn Q; Jensen, Majken K; Wu, Chunsen; Overvad, Kim; Kühn, Tilman; Barrdahl, Myrto; Melander, Olle; Jirström, Karin; Peeters, Petra H; Sieri, Sabina; Panico, Salvatore; Cross, Amanda J; Riboli, Elio; Van Guelpen, Bethany; Myte, Robin; Huerta, José María; Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguel; Quirós, José Ramón; Dorronsoro, Miren; Tjønneland, Anne; Olsen, Anja; Travis, Ruth; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Carbonnel, Franck; Severi, Gianluca; Bonet, Catalina; Palli, Domenico; Janke, Jürgen; Lee, Young-Ae; Boeing, Heiner; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ogino, Shuji; Fuchs, Charles S; Rimm, Eric; Wu, Kana; Chan, Andrew T; Pischon, Tobias

2017-05-01

Higher levels of circulating adiponectin have been related to lower risk of colorectal cancer in several prospective cohort studies, but it remains unclear whether this association may be causal. We aimed to improve causal inference in a Mendelian Randomization meta-analysis using nested case-control studies of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 623 cases, 623 matched controls), the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 231 cases, 230 controls) and the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, 399 cases, 774 controls) with available data on pre-diagnostic adiponectin concentrations and selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in the ADIPOQ gene. We created an ADIPOQ allele score that explained approximately 3% of the interindividual variation in adiponectin concentrations. The ADIPOQ allele score was not associated with risk of colorectal cancer in logistic regression analyses (pooled OR per score-unit unit 0.97, 95% CI 0.91, 1.04). Genetically determined twofold higher adiponectin was not significantly associated with risk of colorectal cancer using the ADIPOQ allele score as instrumental variable (pooled OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.40, 1.34). In a summary instrumental variable analysis (based on previously published data) with higher statistical power, no association between genetically determined twofold higher adiponectin and risk of colorectal cancer was observed (0.99, 95% CI 0.93, 1.06 in women and 0.94, 95% CI 0.88, 1.01 in men). Thus, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating adiponectin on colorectal cancer risk. Due to the limited genetic determination of adiponectin, larger Mendelian Randomization studies are necessary to clarify whether adiponectin is causally related to lower risk of colorectal cancer.

High Loading of Polygenic Risk for ADHD in Children With Comorbid Aggression

PubMed Central

Hamshere, Marian L.; Langley, Kate; Martin, Joanna; Agha, Sharifah Shameem; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; Anney, Richard J.L.; Buitelaar, Jan; Faraone, Stephen V.; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Neale, Benjamin M.; Franke, Barbara; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Asherson, Philip; Merwood, Andrew; Kuntsi, Jonna; Medland, Sarah E.; Ripke, Stephan; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Freitag, Christine; Reif, Andreas; Renner, Tobias J.; Romanos, Marcel; Romanos, Jasmin; Warnke, Andreas; Meyer, Jobst; Palmason, Haukur; Vasquez, Alejandro Arias; Lambregts-Rommelse, Nanda; Roeyers, Herbert; Biederman, Joseph; Doyle, Alysa E.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Rothenberger, Aribert; Banaschewski, Tobias; Oades, Robert D.; McGough, James J.; Kent, Lindsey; Williams, Nigel; Owen, Michael J.; Holmans, Peter

2013-01-01

Objective Although attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is highly heritable, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have not yet identified any common genetic variants that contribute to risk. There is evidence that aggression or conduct disorder in children with ADHD indexes higher genetic loading and clinical severity. The authors examine whether common genetic variants considered en masse as polygenic scores for ADHD are especially enriched in children with comorbid conduct disorder. Method Polygenic scores derived from an ADHD GWAS meta-analysis were calculated in an independent ADHD sample (452 case subjects, 5,081 comparison subjects). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to compare polygenic scores in the ADHD and comparison groups and test for higher scores in ADHD case subjects with comorbid conduct disorder relative to comparison subjects and relative to those without comorbid conduct disorder. Association with symptom scores was tested using linear regression. Results Polygenic risk for ADHD, derived from the meta-analysis, was higher in the independent ADHD group than in the comparison group. Polygenic score was significantly higher in ADHD case subjects with conduct disorder relative to ADHD case subjects without conduct disorder. ADHD polygenic score showed significant association with comorbid conduct disorder symptoms. This relationship was explained by the aggression items. Conclusions Common genetic variation is relevant to ADHD, especially in individuals with comorbid aggression. The findings suggest that the previously published ADHD GWAS meta-analysis contains weak but true associations with common variants, support for which falls below genome-wide significance levels. The findings also highlight the fact that aggression in ADHD indexes genetic as well as clinical severity. PMID:23599091

Evaluation of prenatal risk factors for prediction of outcome in right heart lesions: CVP score in fetal right heart defects.

PubMed

Neves, Ana Luisa; Mathias, Leigh; Wilhm, Marilyn; Leshko, Jennifer; Linask, Kersti K; Henriques-Coelho, Tiago; Areias, José C; Huhta, James C

2014-09-01

To determine the prenatal variables predicting the risk of perinatal death in congenital right heart defects. Retrospective analysis of 28 fetuses with right heart defects was performed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain odds ratios (OR) for the relationship between the risk of death and echocardiographic parameters. The parameters that correlated with the outcome were incorporated in an attempt to devise a disease-specific cardiovascular profile score. Fetal echocardiograms (143) from 28 patients were analyzed. The cardiovascular profile score predicted the risk of death. A lower right ventricle (RV) pressure was associated with mortality (OR 0.959; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.940-0.978). Higher peak aortic velocity through the aortic valve (OR 0.104; 95% CI 0.020-0.529) was associated with a better outcome. These cardiac function parameters were incorporated in a modified disease-specific CVP Score. Patients with a mean modified cardiovascular profile score of ≤ 6 were over 3.7 times more likely to die than those with scores of 7-10. The original Cardiovascular Profile Score predicted the risk of death in right heart defects. The modified score was not validated as a good prediction tool by this study. Fetal RV pressure estimate and peak aortic velocity can be used as independent prognostic predictors.

Optimal Utilization of Donor Grafts With Extended Criteria

PubMed Central

Cameron, Andrew M.; Ghobrial, R Mark; Yersiz, Hasan; Farmer, Douglas G.; Lipshutz, Gerald S.; Gordon, Sherilyn A.; Zimmerman, Michael; Hong, Johnny; Collins, Thomas E.; Gornbein, Jeffery; Amersi, Farin; Weaver, Michael; Cao, Carlos; Chen, Tony; Hiatt, Jonathan R.; Busuttil, Ronald W.

2006-01-01

Objective: Severely limited organ resources mandate maximum utilization of donor allografts for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). This work aimed to identify factors that impact survival outcomes for extended criteria donors (ECD) and developed an ECD scoring system to facilitate graft-recipient matching and optimize utilization of ECDs. Methods: Retrospective analysis of over 1000 primary adult OLTs at UCLA. Extended criteria (EC) considered included donor age (>55 years), donor hospital stay (>5 days), cold ischemia time (>10 hours), and warm ischemia time (>40 minutes). One point was assigned for each extended criterion. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for multivariate analysis. Results: Of 1153 allografts considered in the study, 568 organs exhibited no extended criteria (0 score), while 429, 135 and 21 donor allografts exhibited an EC score of 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Overall 1-year patient survival rates were 88%, 82%, 77% and 48% for recipients with EC scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3 respectively (P < 0.001). Adjusting for recipient age and urgency at the time of transplantation, multivariate analysis identified an ascending mortality risk ratio of 1.4 and 1.8 compared to a score of 0 for an EC score of 1, and 2 (P < 0.01) respectively. In contrast, an EC score of 3 was associated with a mortality risk ratio of 4.5 (P < 0.001). Further, advanced recipient age linearly increased the death hazard ratio, while an urgent recipient status increased the risk ratio of death by 50%. Conclusions: Extended criteria donors can be scored using readily available parameters. Optimizing perioperative variables and matching ECD allografts to appropriately selected recipients are crucial to maintain acceptable outcomes and represent a preferable alternative to both high waiting list mortality and to a potentially futile transplant that utilizes an ECD for a critically ill recipient. PMID:16772778

A novel risk score for mortality in renal transplant recipients beyond the first posttransplant year.

PubMed

Hernández, Domingo; Sánchez-Fructuoso, Ana; González-Posada, José Manuel; Arias, Manuel; Campistol, Josep María; Rufino, Margarita; Morales, José María; Moreso, Francesc; Pérez, Germán; Torres, Armando; Serón, Daniel

2009-09-27

All-cause mortality is high after kidney transplantation (KT), but no prognostic index has focused on predicting mortality in KT using baseline and emergent comorbidity after KT. A total of 4928 KT recipients were used to derive a risk score predicting mortality. Patients were randomly assigned to two groups: a modeling population (n=2452), used to create a new index, and a testing population (n=2476), used to test this index. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients of baseline (age, weight, time on dialysis, diabetes, hepatitis C, and delayed graft function) and emergent comorbidity within the first posttransplant year (diabetes, proteinuria, renal function, and immunosuppressants) were used to weigh each variable in the calculation of the score and allocated into risk quartiles. The probability of death at 3 years, estimated by baseline cumulative hazard function from the Cox model [P (death)=1-0.993592764 (exp(score/100)], increased from 0.9% in the lowest-risk quartile (score=40) to 4.7% in the highest risk-quartile (score=200). The observed incidence of death increased with increasing risk quartiles in testing population (log-rank analysis, P<0.0001). The overall C-index was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.78) and 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.77) in both populations, respectively. This new index is an accurate tool to identify high-risk patients for mortality after KT.

Risk selection into consumer-directed health plans: an analysis of family choices within large employers.

PubMed

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-04-01

To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans.

Identification of men with low-risk biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer as candidates for active surveillance.

PubMed

Lin, Daniel W; Crawford, E David; Keane, Thomas; Evans, Brent; Reid, Julia; Rajamani, Saradha; Brown, Krystal; Gutin, Alexander; Tward, Jonathan; Scardino, Peter; Brawer, Michael; Stone, Steven; Cuzick, Jack

2018-06-01

A combined clinical cell-cycle risk (CCR) score that incorporates prognostic molecular and clinical information has been recently developed and validated to improve prostate cancer mortality (PCM) risk stratification over clinical features alone. As clinical features are currently used to select men for active surveillance (AS), we developed and validated a CCR score threshold to improve the identification of men with low-risk disease who are appropriate for AS. The score threshold was selected based on the 90th percentile of CCR scores among men who might typically be considered for AS based on NCCN low/favorable-intermediate risk criteria (CCR = 0.8). The threshold was validated using 10-year PCM in an unselected, conservatively managed cohort and in the subset of the same cohort after excluding men with high-risk features. The clinical effect was evaluated in a contemporary clinical cohort. In the unselected validation cohort, men with CCR scores below the threshold had a predicted mean 10-year PCM of 2.7%, and the threshold significantly dichotomized low- and high-risk disease (P = 1.2 × 10 -5 ). After excluding high-risk men from the validation cohort, men with CCR scores below the threshold had a predicted mean 10-year PCM of 2.3%, and the threshold significantly dichotomized low- and high-risk disease (P = 0.020). There were no prostate cancer-specific deaths in men with CCR scores below the threshold in either analysis. The proportion of men in the clinical testing cohort identified as candidates for AS was substantially higher using the threshold (68.8%) compared to clinicopathologic features alone (42.6%), while mean 10-year predicted PCM risks remained essentially identical (1.9% vs. 2.0%, respectively). The CCR score threshold appropriately dichotomized patients into low- and high-risk groups for 10-year PCM, and may enable more appropriate selection of patients for AS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Blunt Cerebrovascular Injury in Pediatric Trauma: Validation of the “Utah Score”

PubMed Central

Ravindra, Vijay M.; Bollo, Robert J.; Sivakumar, Walavan; Akbari, Hassan; Naftel, Robert P.; Limbrick, David D.; Jea, Andrew; Gannon, Stephen; Shannon, Chevis; Birkas, Yekaterina; Yang, George L.; Prather, Colin T.; Kestle, John R.

2017-01-01

Abstract Risk factors for blunt cerebrovascular injury (BCVI) may differ between children and adults, suggesting that children at low risk for BCVI after trauma receive unnecessary computed tomography angiography (CTA) and high-dose radiation. We previously developed a score for predicting pediatric BCVI based on retrospective cohort analysis. Our objective is to externally validate this prediction score with a retrospective multi-institutional cohort. We included patients who underwent CTA for traumatic cranial injury at four pediatric Level I trauma centers. Each patient in the validation cohort was scored using the “Utah Score” and classified as high or low risk. Before analysis, we defined a misclassification rate <25% as validating the Utah Score. Six hundred forty-five patients (mean age 8.6 ± 5.4 years; 63.4% males) underwent screening for BCVI via CTA. The validation cohort was 411 patients from three sites compared with the training cohort of 234 patients. Twenty-two BCVIs (5.4%) were identified in the validation cohort. The Utah Score was significantly associated with BCVIs in the validation cohort (odds ratio 8.1 [3.3, 19.8], p < 0.001) and discriminated well in the validation cohort (area under the curve 72%). When the Utah Score was applied to the validation cohort, the sensitivity was 59%, specificity was 85%, positive predictive value was 18%, and negative predictive value was 97%. The Utah Score misclassified 16.6% of patients in the validation cohort. The Utah Score for predicting BCVI in pediatric trauma patients was validated with a low misclassification rate using a large, independent, multicenter cohort. Its implementation in the clinical setting may reduce the use of CTA in low-risk patients. PMID:27297774

A simple risk score for identifying individuals with impaired fasting glucose in the Southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-23

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006-2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008-2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008-2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-01

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice. PMID:25625405

Risk score for peri-interventional complications of carotid artery stenting.

PubMed

Hofmann, Robert; Niessner, Alexander; Kypta, Alexander; Steinwender, Clemens; Kammler, Jürgen; Kerschner, Klaus; Grund, Michael; Leisch, Franz; Huber, Kurt

2006-10-01

Routinely available independent risk factors for the peri-interventional outcome of patients undergoing elective carotid artery stenting (CAS) are lacking. The rationale of the study was to create a risk score identifying high-risk patients. We prospectively enrolled 606 consecutive patients assigned to CAS at a secondary care hospital. Various biochemical, clinical, and lesion-related risk factors were prospectively defined. The primary end point reflecting periprocedural complications encompassed minor and major stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality within 30 days. Three percent of patients (n=18) experienced a nonfatal minor (n=13) or major (n=5) stroke. 1.3% of patients (n=8) died from fatal stroke (n=4) or other causes (n=4). No myocardial infarction was observed within 30 days after stenting. Multivariable analysis revealed diabetes mellitus with inadequate glycemic control (HbA1c > 7%), age > or = 80 years, ulceration of the carotid artery stenosis, and a contralateral stenosis > or = 50% as independent risk factors. A risk score formed with these variables showed a superior predictive value (C-statistic = 0.73) compared with single risk factors. The presence of 2 or more of these risk factors identified patients with a risk of 11% for a periprocedural complication compared with 2% in patients with a score of 0 or 1. In patients undergoing elective CAS, a risk score based on routinely accessible variables was able to identify patients at high-risk for atherothrombotic events and all-cause death within 30 days after the intervention.

Healthy eating index and breast cancer risk among Malaysian women.

PubMed

Shahril, Mohd Razif; Sulaiman, Suhaina; Shaharudin, Soraya Hanie; Akmal, Sharifah Noor

2013-07-01

Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), an index-based dietary pattern, has been shown to predict the risk of chronic diseases among Americans. This study aims to examine the ability of HEI-2005 in predicting the probability for risk of premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer among Malaysian women. Data from a case-control nutritional epidemiology study among 764 participants including 382 breast cancer cases and 382 healthy women were extracted and scored. Multivariate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to evaluate the relationship between the risk of breast cancer and quartiles (Q) of HEI-2005 total scores and its component, whereas the risk prediction ability of HEI-2005 was investigated using diagnostics analysis. The results of this study showed that there is a significant reduction in the risk of breast cancer, with a higher HEI-2005 total score among premenopausal women (OR Q1 vs. Q4=0.34, 95% CI; 0.15-0.76) and postmenopausal women (OR Q1 vs. Q4=0.20, 95% CI; 0.06-0.63). However, HEI-2005 has a sensitivity of 56-60%, a specificity of 55-60%, and a positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 57-58%, which indicates a moderate ability to predict the risk of breast cancer according to menopausal status. The breast cancer incidence observed poorly agrees with risk outcomes from HEI-2005 as shown by low κ statistics (κ=0.15). In conclusion, although the total HEI-2005 scores were associated with a risk of breast cancer among Malaysian women, the ability of HEI-2005 to predict risk is poor as indicated by the diagnostic analysis. A local index-based dietary pattern, which is disease specific, is required to predict the risk of breast cancer among Malaysian women for early prevention.

Self-reported stroke symptoms without a prior diagnosis of stroke or transient ischemic attack: a powerful new risk factor for stroke.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn; Judd, Suzanne; Howard, Virginia J; McClure, Leslie; Safford, Monika M; Cushman, Mary; Rhodes, David; Howard, George

2011-11-01

Previously in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort, we found 18% of the stroke/transient ischemic attack-free study population reported ≥1 stroke symptom at baseline. We sought to evaluate the additional impact of these stroke symptoms on risk for subsequent stroke. REGARDS recruited 30,239 US blacks and whites, aged 45+ years in 2003 to 2007 who are being followed every 6 months for events. All stroke events are physician-verified; those with prior diagnosed stroke or transient ischemic attack are excluded from this analysis. At baseline, participants were asked 6 questions regarding stroke symptoms. Measured stroke risk factors were components of the Framingham Stroke Risk Score. After excluding those with prior stroke or missing data, there were 24,412 participants in this analysis with a median follow-up of 4.4 years. Participants were 39% black, 55% female, and had median age of 64 years. There were 381 physician-verified stroke events. The Framingham Stroke Risk Score explained 72.0% of stroke risk; individual components explained between 0.2% (left ventricular hypertrophy) and 5.7% (age+race) of stroke risk. After adjustment for Framingham Stroke Risk Score factors, stroke symptoms were significantly related to stroke risk: for each stroke symptom reported, the risk of stroke increased by 21% per symptom. Among participants without self-reported stroke or transient ischemic attack, prior stroke symptoms are highly predictive of future stroke events. Compared with Framingham Stroke Risk Score factors, the impact of stroke symptom on the prediction of future stroke was almost as large as the impact of smoking and hypertension and larger than the impact of diabetes and heart disease.

Arterial injuries after penetrating brain injury in civilians: risk factors on admission head computed tomography.

PubMed

Bodanapally, Uttam K; Saksobhavivat, Nitima; Shanmuganathan, Kathirkamanathan; Aarabi, Bizhan; Roy, Ashis K

2015-01-01

The object of this study was to determine the specific CT findings of the injury profile in penetrating brain injury (PBI) that are risk factors related to intracranial arterial injuries. The authors retrospectively evaluated admission head CTs and accompanying digital subtraction angiography (DSA) studies from patients with penetrating trauma to the head in the period between January 2005 and December 2012. Two authors reviewed the CT images to determine the presence or absence of 30 injury profile variables and quantified selected variables. The CT characteristics in patients with and without arterial injuries were compared using univariate analysis, multivariate analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the respective risk factors, independent predictors, and optimal threshold values for the continuous variables. Fifty-five patients were eligible for study inclusion. The risk factors for an intracranial arterial injury on univariate analysis were an entry wound over the frontobasal-temporal regions, a bihemispheric wound trajectory, a wound trajectory in proximity to the circle of Willis (COW), a subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), a higher SAH score, an intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and a higher IVH score. A trajectory in proximity to the COW was the best predictor of injury (OR 6.8 and p = 0.005 for all penetrating brain injuries [PBIs]; OR 13.3 and p = 0.001 for gunshot wounds [GSWs]). Significant quantitative variables were higher SAH and IVH scores. An SAH score of 3 (area under the ROC curve [AUC] for all PBIs 0.72; AUC for GSWs 0.71) and an IVH score of 3 (AUC for all PBIs 0.65; AUC for GSWs 0.65) could be used as threshold values to suggest an arterial injury. The risk factors identified may help radiologists suggest the possibility of arterial injury and prioritize neurointerventional consultation and potential DSA studies.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar

2017-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

Defining High Risk Patients for Endovascular Aneurysm Repair: A National Analysis

PubMed Central

Egorova, Natalia; Giacovelli, Jeannine K.; Gelijns, Annetine; Mureebe, Leila; Greco, Giampaolo; Morrissey, Nicholas; Nowygrod, Roman; Moskowitz, Alan; McKinsey, James; Kent, K. Craig

2011-01-01

Background Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is commonly used as a minimally invasive technique for repairing infrarenal aortic aneurysms. There have been recent concerns that a subset of high-risk patients experience unfavorable outcomes with this intervention. To determine whether such a high-risk cohort exists and to identify the characteristics of these patients, we analyzed the outcomes of Medicare patients treated with EVAR from 2000–2006. Methods and Results We identified 66,943 patients who underwent EVAR from Inpatient Medicare database. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.6%. A risk model for perioperative mortality was developed by randomly selecting 44,630 patients; the other 1/3 of the dataset was used to validate the model. The model was deemed reliable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics was p=0.25 for the development, p=0.24 for the validation model) and accurate (c=0.735 and c=0.731 for the development and the validation model, respectively). In our scoring system, where scores ranged between 1 and 7, the following were identified as significant baseline factors that predict mortality: renal failure with dialysis (score=7), renal failure without dialysis (score=3), clinically significant lower extremity ischemia (score=5), patient age ≥85 (score=3), 75–84 (score=2), 70–74 (score=1), heart failure (score=3), chronic liver disease (score=3), female gender (score=2), neurological disorders (score=2), , chronic pulmonary disease (score=2), surgeon experience in EVAR<3 procedures (score=1) and hospital annual volume in EVAR <7 procedures (score=1). The majority of Medicare patients who were treated (96.6%, n=64,651) had a score of 9 or less, which correlated with a mortality < 5%. Only 3.4% of patients had a mortality ≥ 5% and 0.8% of patients (n=509) had a score of 13 or higher, which correlated with a mortality >10%. Conclusion We conclude that there is a high-risk cohort of patients that should not be treated with EVAR; however, this cohort is small. Our scoring system, which is based on patient and institutional factors, provides criteria that can be easily used by clinicians to quantify perioperative risk for EVAR candidates. PMID:19782526

Mobility measures differentiate falls risk status in persons with multiple sclerosis: An exploratory study.

PubMed

Sebastião, Emerson; Learmonth, Yvonne C; Motl, Robert W

2017-01-01

Falls are of great concern among persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). To examine differences in metrics of mobility, postural control, and cognition in persons with MS with distinct fall risk status; and to investigate predictors of fall risk group membership using discriminant analysis. Forty-seven persons with MS completed the Activities-Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale and underwent a battery of assessments of mobility, balance, and cognition. Participants further wore an accelerometer for 7 days as an assessment of steps/day. Participants were allocated into fall risk groups based on ABC scale scores (increased fall risk (IFR); and normal fall risk (NFR)). We examined univariate differences between groups using ANOVA, and discriminant function analysis (DFA) identified the significant multivariate predictors of FR status. After controlling for disability level, the IFR group had significantly (p < 0.05) worse scores on measures of mobility (i.e., MSWS-12, 6 MW, and steps/day) compared to the NFR group. DFA identified MSWS-12 and 6 MW scores as significant (p < 0.05) predictors of fall risk group membership. Those two variables collectively explained 55% of variance in fall risk grouping. The findings suggest that mobility should be the focus of rehabilitation programs in persons with MS, especially for those at IFR.

Predicting Risk of Cognitive Decline in Very Old Adults Using Three Models: The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile; the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia Model; and Oxi-Inflammatory Biomarkers.

PubMed

Harrison, Stephanie L; de Craen, Anton J M; Kerse, Ngaire; Teh, Ruth; Granic, Antoneta; Davies, Karen; Wesnes, Keith A; den Elzen, Wendy P J; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Kirkwood, Thomas B L; Robinson, Louise; Jagger, Carol; Siervo, Mario; Stephan, Blossom C M

2017-02-01

To examine the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP); the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) risk score, and oxi-inflammatory load (cumulative risk score of three blood biomarkers-homocysteine, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein) for associations with cognitive decline using three cohort studies of very old adults and to examine whether incorporating these biomarkers with the risk scores can affect the association with cognitive decline. Three longitudinal, population-based cohort studies. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; Leiden, the Netherlands; and Lakes and Bay of Plenty District Health Board areas, New Zealand. Newcastle 85+ Study participants (n = 616), Leiden 85-plus Study participants (n = 444), and Life and Living in Advanced Age, a Cohort Study in New Zealand (LiLACS NZ Study) participants (n = 396). FSRP, CAIDE risk score, oxi-inflammatory load, FSRP incorporating oxi-inflammatory load, and CAIDE risk score incorporating oxi-inflammatory load. Oxi-inflammatory load could be calculated only in the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Measures of global cognitive function were available for all three data sets. Domain-specific measures were available for the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Meta-analysis of pooled results showed greater risk of incident global cognitive impairment with higher FSRP (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.98), CAIDE (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.09-2.14), and oxi-inflammatory load (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.04-2.88) scores. Adding oxi-inflammatory load to the risk scores increased the risk of cognitive impairment for the FSRP (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.17-2.33) and the CAIDE model (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.39-2.67). Adding oxi-inflammatory load to cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for determining risk of cognitive impairment in very old adults. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Advancing the Hypothesis that Geographic Variations in Risk Factors Contribute Relatively Little to Observed Geographic Variations in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Howard, George; Cushman, Mary; Prineas, Ronald J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Moy, Claudia S.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; McClure, Leslie A.; Pulley, Lea Vonne; Safford, Monika M.

2009-01-01

Purpose Geographic variation in risk factors may underlie geographic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality. Methods Framingham CHD Risk Score (FCRS) and Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) were calculated for 25,770 stroke-free and 22,247 CHD-free participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort. Vital statistics provided age-adjusted CHD and stroke mortality rates. In an ecologic analysis, the age-adjusted, race-sex weighted, average state-level risk factor levels were compared to state-level mortality rates. Results There was no relationship between CHD and stroke mortality rates (r = 0.04; p = 0.78), but there was between CHD and stroke risk scores at the individual (r = 0.68; p < 0.0001) and state (r = 0.64, p < 0.0001) level. There was a stronger (p < 0.0001) association between state-level FCRS and state-level CHD mortality (r = 0.28, p = 0.18), than between FSRS and stroke mortality (r = 0.12, p = 0.56). Conclusions Weak associations between CHD and stroke mortality and strong associations between CHD and stroke risk scores suggest geographic variation in risk factors may not underlie geographic variations in stroke and CHD mortality. The relationship between risk factor scores and mortality was stronger for CHD than stroke. PMID:19285103

A Retrospective Analysis of Post-Stroke Berg Balance Scale Scores: How Should Normal and At-Risk Scores Be Interpreted?

PubMed Central

Inness, Elizabeth; McIlroy, William E.; Mansfield, Avril

2017-01-01

Purpose: The Berg Balance Scale (BBS) is a performance-based measure of standing balance commonly used by clinicians working with individuals post-stroke. Performance on the BBS can be influenced by compensatory strategies, but measures derived from two force plates can isolate compensatory strategies and thus better indicate balance impairment. This study examined BBS scores that reflect “normal” and disordered balance with respect to dual force-plate measures of standing balance in individuals post-stroke. Methods: BBS and force-plate measures were extracted from 75 patient charts. Individuals were classified by BBS score with respect to (1) age-matched normative values and (2) values that suggested increased risk of falls. Multiple analysis of variance was used to examine the effect of group assignment on force-plate measures of standing balance. Results: Individuals with BBS scores within and below normative values did not differ in force-plate measures. Individuals with BBS scores below the falls risk cutoff loaded their affected leg less than individuals with BBS scores above the cutoff. There were no other differences in force-plate measures between these two groups. Conclusions: BBS scores indicating either normal or disordered balance function are not necessarily associated with normal or disordered quiet standing-balance control measured by two force plates. This finding suggests that the BBS may reflect a capacity for compensation rather than any underlying impairments. PMID:28539694

Development of a Risk Assessment Tool to Predict Fall-Related Severe Injuries Occurring in a Hospital

PubMed Central

Toyabe, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Inpatient falls are the most common adverse events that occur in a hospital, and about 3 to 10% of falls result in serious injuries such as bone fractures and intracranial haemorrhages. We previously reported that bone fractures and intracranial haemorrhages were two major fall-related injuries and that risk assessment score for osteoporotic bone fracture was significantly associated not only with bone fractures after falls but also with intracranial haemorrhage after falls. Based on the results, we tried to establish a risk assessment tool for predicting fall-related severe injuries in a hospital. Possible risk factors related to fall-related serious injuries were extracted from data on inpatients that were admitted to a tertiary-care university hospital by using multivariate Cox’ s regression analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis. We found that fall risk score and fracture risk score were the two significant factors, and we constructed models to predict fall-related severe injuries incorporating these factors. When the prediction model was applied to another independent dataset, the constructed model could detect patients with fall-related severe injuries efficiently. The new assessment system could identify patients prone to severe injuries after falls in a reproducible fashion. PMID:25168984

Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolios, Athanasios; Read, George; Ioannou, Anastasia

2016-01-01

This paper presents an analytical multi-criterion analysis for the prioritisation of risks for the development of tidal energy projects. After a basic identification of risks throughout the project and relevant stakeholders in the UK, classified through a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis, relevant questionnaires provided scores to each risk and corresponding weights for each of the different sectors. Employing an extended technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution as well as the weighted sum method based on the data obtained, the risks identified are ranked based on their criticality, drawing attention of the industry in mitigating the ones scoring higher. Both methods were modified to take averages at different stages of the analysis in order to observe the effects on the final risk ranking. A sensitivity analysis of the results was also carried out with regard to the weighting factors given to the perceived expertise of participants, with different results being obtained whether a linear, squared or square root regression is used. Results of the study show that academics and industry have conflicting opinions with regard to the perception of the most critical risks.

Benefit, risk and cost of new oral anticoagulants and warfarin in atrial fibrillation; A multicriteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Mendoza-Sanchez, Jose; Silva, Federico; Rangel, Lady; Jaramillo, Linda; Mendoza, Leidy; Garzon, Jenny; Quiroga, Andrea

2018-01-01

Warfarin and new oral anticoagulants are effective in reducing stroke in atrial fibrillation; however, the benefits and risks rates in clinical trials show heterogeneity for each anticoagulant, and is unknown the cost influence on a model considering most of the treatment consequences. We designed a benefit-risk and cost assessment of oral anticoagulants. We followed the roadmap proposed by IMI-PROTECT and the considerations of emerged good practice to perform Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The roadmap defines the following steps: (1) planning, (2) evidence gathering and data preparation, (3) analyses, (4) explorations, and (5) conclusions. We defined two reference points (0-100) to allocate numerical values for scores and weights, and used an analogue numeric scale to assess physicians' preferences. As benefits of the anticoagulant therapy, we included reductions in stroke and all-cause mortality; intracranial haemorrhage, gastrointestinal haemorrhage, minor bleeding and myocardial infarction were considered risks. We also made an estimation of the annual drug cost per person. The scores were: Apixaban 33, Dabigatrán 25, warfarin 18 and Rivaroxaban 14 this score reveals the most preferred up to the less preferred option, considering the benefit-risk ratio and drug costs altogether. The relative model weights were: 51.1% for risks, 40.4% for benefits and 8.5% for cost. The sensitivity analysis confirms the model robustness. From this analysis, apixaban should be considered as the preferred anticoagulant option -due to a better benefit-risk balance and a minor cost influence- followed by dabigatran, warfarin and rivaroxaban.

Does Cardiorespiratory Fitness Attenuate the Adverse Effects of Severe/Morbid Obesity on Cardiometabolic Risk and Insulin Resistance in Children? A Pooled Analysis.

PubMed

Nyström, Christine Delisle; Henriksson, Pontus; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente; Medrano, María; Cadenas-Sanchez, Cristina; Arias-Palencia, Natalia María; Löf, Marie; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Labayen, Idoia; Sánchez-López, Mairena; Ortega, Francisco B

2017-11-01

To investigate 1 ) differences in cardiometabolic risk and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) across BMI categories (underweight to morbid obesity), 2 ) whether fit children have lower cardiometabolic risk/HOMA-IR than unfit children in each BMI category, and 3 ) differences in cardiometabolic risk/HOMA-IR in normal-weight unfit children and obese fit children. A pooled study including cross-sectional data from three projects ( n = 1,247 children aged 8-11 years). Cardiometabolic risk was assessed using the sum of the sex- and age-specific z scores for triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose, and the average of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and HOMA-IR. A significant linear association was observed between the risk score and BMI categories ( P trend ≤0.001), with every incremental rise in BMI category being associated with a 0.5 SD higher risk score (standardized β = 0.474, P < 0.001). A trend was found showing that as BMI categories rose, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) attenuated the risk score, with the biggest differences observed in the most obese children (-0.8 SD); however, this attenuation was significant only in mild obesity (-0.2 SD, P = 0.048). Normal-weight unfit children had a significantly lower risk score than obese fit children ( P < 0.001); however, a significant reduction in the risk score was found in obese fit compared with unfit children (-0.4 SD, P = 0.027). Similar results were obtained for HOMA-IR. As BMI categories rose so did cardiometabolic risk and HOMA-IR, which highlights the need for obesity prevention/treatment programs in childhood. Furthermore, CRF may play an important role in lowering the risk of cardiometabolic diseases in obese children. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

Determining venous thromboembolic risk assessment for patients with trauma: the Trauma Embolic Scoring System.

PubMed

Rogers, Frederick B; Shackford, Steven R; Horst, Michael A; Miller, Jo Ann; Wu, Daniel; Bradburn, Eric; Rogers, Amelia; Krasne, Margaret

2012-08-01

This study aimed to determine the relative "weight" of risk factors known to be associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) for patients with trauma based on injuries and comorbidities. A retrospective review of 16,608 consecutive admissions to a trauma center was performed. Patients were separated into those who developed VTE (n = 141) versus those who did not (16,467). Univariate analysis was performed for each risk factor reported in the trauma literature. Risk factors that were shown to be significant (p < 0.05) by univariate analysis underwent multivariate analysis to develop odds ratios for VTE. The Trauma Embolic Scoring System (TESS) was derived from the multivariate coefficients. The resulting TESS was compared with a data set from the National Trauma Data Bank (2002-2006) to determine its ability to predict VTE. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, Injury Severity Score, obesity, ventilator use for more than 3 days, and lower-extremity trauma were significant predictors of VTE in our patient population. The TESS was from 0 to 14, with the best prediction for those patients with a score of more than 6 (sensitivity, 81.6%; specificity, 84%). Overall, the model had excellent discrimination in predicting VTE with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. The VTE rates for TESS in the National Trauma Data Bank data set were similar for all integers except for 3 and 4, in which the VTE rates were significantly higher (3, 0.2% vs. 0.6%; 4, 0.4% vs. 1.0%). The TESS provides an objective measure of classifying VTE risk for patients with trauma. The TESS could allow informed decision making regarding prophylaxis strategies in patients with trauma.

Hemorrhage recurrence risk factors in cerebral amyloid angiopathy: Comparative analysis of the overall small vessel disease severity score versus individual neuroimaging markers.

PubMed

Boulouis, Gregoire; Charidimou, Andreas; Pasi, Marco; Roongpiboonsopit, Duangnapa; Xiong, Li; Auriel, Eitan; van Etten, Ellis S; Martinez-Ramirez, Sergi; Ayres, Alison; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin M; Rosand, Jonathan; Goldstein, Joshua N; Gurol, M Edip; Greenberg, Steven M; Viswanathan, Anand

2017-09-15

An MRI-based score of total small vessel disease burden (CAA-SVD-Score) in cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) has been demonstrated to correlate with severity of pathologic changes. Evidence suggests that CAA-related intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) recurrence risk is associated with specific disease imaging manifestations rather than overall severity. We compared the correlation between the CAA-SVD-Score with the risk of recurrent CAA-related lobar ICH versus the predictive role of each of its components. Consecutive patients with CAA-related ICH from a single-center prospective cohort were analyzed. Radiological markers of CAA related SVD damage were quantified and categorized according to the CAA-SVD-Score (0-6 points). Subjects were followed prospectively for recurrent symptomatic ICH. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between the CAA-SVD-Score as well as each of the individual MRI signatures of CAA and the risk of recurrent ICH. In 229 CAA patients with ICH, a total of 56 recurrent ICH events occurred during a median follow-up of 2.8years [IQR 0.9-5.4years, 781 person-years). Higher CAA-SVD-Score (HR=1.26 per additional point, 95%CI [1.04-1.52], p=0.015) and older age were independently associated with higher ICH recurrence risk. Analysis of individual markers of CAA showed that CAA-SVD-Score findings were due to the independent effect of disseminated superficial siderosis (HR for disseminated cSS vs none: 2.89, 95%CI [1.47-5.5], p=0.002) and high degree of perivascular spaces enlargement (RR=3.50-95%CI [1.04-21], p=0.042). In lobar CAA-ICH patients, higher CAA-SVD-Score does predict recurrent ICH. Amongst individual elements of the score, superficial siderosis and dilated perivascular spaces are the only markers independently associated with ICH recurrence, contributing to the evidence for distinct CAA phenotypes singled out by neuro-imaging manifestations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

White Matter Hyperintensities Improve Ischemic Stroke Recurrence Prediction.

PubMed

Andersen, Søren Due; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Yavarian, Yousef; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W

2017-01-01

Nearly one in 5 patients with ischemic stroke will invariably experience a second stroke within 5 years. Stroke risk stratification schemes based solely on clinical variables perform only modestly in non-atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and improvement of these schemes will enhance their clinical utility. Cerebral white matter hyperintensities are associated with an increased risk of incident ischemic stroke in the general population, whereas their association with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence is more ambiguous. In a non-AF stroke cohort, we investigated the association between cerebral white matter hyperintensities and the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, and we evaluated the predictive performance of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score (clinical scores) when augmented with information on white matter hyperintensities. In a registry-based, observational cohort study, we included 832 patients (mean age 59.6 (SD 13.9); 42.0% females) with incident ischemic stroke and no AF. We assessed the severity of white matter hyperintensities using MRI. Hazard ratios stratified by the white matter hyperintensities score and adjusted for the components of the CHA2DS2VASc score were calculated based on the Cox proportional hazards analysis. Recalibrated clinical scores were calculated by adding one point to the score for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with the C-statistic. White matter hyperintensities were significantly associated with the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The hazard ratios ranged from 1.65 (95% CI 0.70-3.86) for mild changes to 5.28 (95% CI 1.98-14.07) for the most severe changes. C-statistics for the prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke were 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.65) for the CHA2DS2VASc score and 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.68) for the Essen Stroke Risk Score. The recalibrated clinical scores showed improved C-statistics: the recalibrated CHA2DS2VASc score 0.62 (95% CI 0.54-0.70; p = 0.024) and the recalibrated Essen Stroke Risk Score 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.71; p = 0.031). C-statistics of the white matter hyperintensities score were 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.68) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.73). An increasing burden of white matter hyperintensities was independently associated with recurrent ischemic stroke in a cohort of non-AF ischemic stroke patients. Recalibration of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score with one point for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities led to improved discriminatory performance in ischemic stroke recurrence prediction. Risk scores based on white matter hyperintensities alone were at least as accurate as the established clinical risk scores in the prediction of ischemic stroke recurrence. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

PubMed

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-03-01

Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

PubMed Central

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Summary Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. PMID:28126460

Increased Risk for Falling Associated with Subtle Cognitive Impairment: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Gleason, Carey E.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Fischer, Barbara L.; Mahoney, Jane E.

2009-01-01

Background/Aims Having dementia increases patients’ risk for accidental falls. However, it is unknown if having mild cognitive deficits also elevates a person's risk for falls. This study sought to clarify the relationship between subtle cognitive impairment, measured with a widely-used, clinic-based assessment, the Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE), and risk for falls. Methods In a secondary analysis of the Kenosha County Falls Prevention Study, a randomized controlled trial targeting older adults at risk for falls, we examined the association between baseline MMSE and prospective rate of falls over 12 months in 172 subjects randomized to control group. Results Using univariate analysis, the rate of falls increased with each unit decrease in MMSE score down to at least 22 (rate ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09–1.45, p = 0.0026). Using stepwise multivariate regression, controlling for ability to perform activities of daily living, use of assistive device, current exercise, and arthritis, the association between MMSE score and falls rate persisted (rate ratio 1.20, 95% CI 1.03–1.40, p = 0.021). Conclusion Minimal decrements on the MMSE were associated with elevations in rate of falls, suggesting that subtle cognitive deficits reflected in MMSE scores above a cut-off consistent with a diagnosis of dementia, can influence risk for falls. PMID:19602883

Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

PubMed

Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

2018-04-01

To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Hemoglobin A1c Level Is Not Related to the Severity of Atherosclerosis in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PubMed

Wang, Xinhong; Han, Zhenhua; Hao, Guanghua; Li, Yongqin; Dong, Xin; Wang, Congxia

2015-01-01

The relationship between hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels and the extent of coronary artery stenosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains uncertain. The present study aimed to assess the correlation of HbA1c level with angiographic coronary atherosclerosis. 292 consecutive ACS patients were enrolled and stratified into three groups according to HbA1c levels (group 1: < 6.0%, n = 137; group 2: 6.0-6.4%, n = 67; group 3: ≥ 6.5%, n = 88). The severity of coronary arteriosclerosis was assessed by Gensini score. The relationship between HbA1c and Gensini score was analyzed by multiple variables analysis. HbA1c level was not associated with the severity of CAD assessed by Gensini score in patients with ACS, even after the adjustment for other risk factors. However, NT-proBNP, ApoA1 and LVEF levels were independent predictors for CAD severity. Moreover, HbA1c level was not associated with the risk of high Gensini score (> 40) by logistic regression analysis. Diabetes mellitus (DM) and LVEF levels were two independent risk factors for high Gensini score. HbA1c level is not a significant and independent marker for the severity of angiography in ACS patients, even in high-risk patients.

The UK DCD Risk Score: A new proposal to define futility in donation-after-circulatory-death liver transplantation.

PubMed

Schlegel, Andrea; Kalisvaart, Marit; Scalera, Irene; Laing, Richard W; Mergental, Hynek; Mirza, Darius F; Perera, Thamara; Isaac, John; Dutkowski, Philipp; Muiesan, Paolo

2018-03-01

Primary non-function and ischaemic cholangiopathy are the most feared complications following donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to design a new score on risk assessment in liver-transplantation DCD based on donor-and-recipient parameters. Using the UK national DCD database, a risk analysis was performed in adult recipients of DCD liver grafts in the UK between 2000 and 2015 (n = 1,153). A new risk score was calculated (UK DCD Risk Score) on the basis of a regression analysis. This is validated using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (n = 1,617) and our own DCD liver-transplant database (n = 315). Finally, the new score was compared with two other available prediction systems: the DCD risk scores from the University of California, Los Angeles and King's College Hospital, London. The following seven strongest predictors of DCD graft survival were identified: functional donor warm ischaemia, cold ischaemia, recipient model for end-stage liver disease, recipient age, donor age, previous orthotopic liver transplantation, and donor body mass index. A combination of these risk factors (UK DCD risk model) stratified the best recipients in terms of graft survival in the entire UK DCD database, as well as in the United Network for Organ Sharing and in our own DCD population. Importantly, the UK DCD Risk Score significantly predicted graft loss caused by primary non-function or ischaemic cholangiopathy in the futile group (>10 score points). The new prediction model demonstrated a better C statistic of 0.79 compared to the two other available systems (0.71 and 0.64, respectively). The UK DCD Risk Score is a reliable tool to detect high-risk and futile combinations of donor-and-recipient factors in DCD liver transplantation. It is simple to use and offers a great potential for making better decisions on which DCD graft should be rejected or may benefit from functional assessment and further optimization by machine perfusion. In this study, we provide a new prediction model for graft loss in donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. Based on UK national data, the new UK DCD Risk Score involves the following seven clinically relevant risk factors: donor age, donor body mass index, functional donor warm ischaemia, cold storage, recipient age, recipient laboratory model for end-stage liver disease, and retransplantation. Three risk classes were defined: low risk (0-5 points), high risk (6-10 points), and futile (>10 points). This new model stratified best in terms of graft survival compared to other available models. Futile combinations (>10 points) achieved an only very limited 1- and 5-year graft survival of 37% and less than 20%, respectively. In contrast, an excellent graft survival has been shown in low-risk combinations (≤5 points). The new model is easy to calculate at the time of liver acceptance. It may help to decide which risk combination will benefit from additional graft treatment, or which DCD liver should be declined for a certain recipient. Copyright © 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

PubMed

Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led to a NPV of 96% for high-grade cancer. The risk score, comprising DNA-methylation intensity and traditional clinical risk factors, improved the identification of men with high-grade cancer, with a maximum avoidance of unnecessary repeat biopsies. This risk score resulted in better patient risk stratification and significantly outperformed current risk prediction models such as PCPTRC and PSA. The risk score could help to identify patients with histopathologically negative biopsies harboring high-grade PCa. Prostate 76:1078-1087, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harry, T; University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; Manger, R

Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this workmore » was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.« less

Bilirubin and Stroke Risk Using a Mendelian Randomization Design.

PubMed

Lee, Sun Ju; Jee, Yon Ho; Jung, Keum Ji; Hong, Seri; Shin, Eun Soon; Jee, Sun Ha

2017-05-01

Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of stroke. However, the nature of the relationship between the two remains unknown. We used a Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the causal effect of serum bilirubin on stroke risk in Koreans. The 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (<10 -7 ) including rs6742078 of uridine diphosphoglucuronyl-transferase were selected from genome-wide association study of bilirubin level in the KCPS-II (Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II) Biobank subcohort consisting of 4793 healthy Korean and 806 stroke cases. Weighted genetic risk score was calculated using 14 SNPs selected from the top SNPs. Both rs6742078 (F statistics=138) and weighted genetic risk score with 14 SNPs (F statistics=187) were strongly associated with bilirubin levels. Simultaneously, serum bilirubin level was associated with decreased risk of stroke in an ordinary least-squares analysis. However, in 2-stage least-squares Mendelian randomization analysis, no causal relationship between serum bilirubin and stroke risk was found. There is no evidence that bilirubin level is causally associated with risk of stroke in Koreans. Therefore, bilirubin level is not a risk determinant of stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A post hoc analysis of saxagliptin efficacy and safety in patients with type 2 diabetes stratified by UKPDS 10-year cardiovascular risk score.

PubMed

Bonora, E; Bryzinski, B; Hirshberg, B; Cook, W

2016-05-01

To assess the efficacy and safety of saxagliptin 2.5 and 5 mg/d in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke as estimated by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Post hoc analysis of data pooled from 5 previously reported phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled, 24-week studies was conducted. Patients were stratified into subgroups by UKPDS 10-year CHD and/or stroke risk ≥20% and CHD and stroke risk <20%. End points were adjusted mean change from baseline in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 120-min postprandial glucose (PPG), and body weight and the proportion of patients achieving HbA1c <7% and ≤8% at week 24. Pooled safety data were analyzed for adverse events (AEs) and hypoglycemia. Both doses of saxagliptin reduced HbA1c, FPG, and PPG to a greater extent than placebo regardless of UKPDS risk score. The proportions of patients achieving HbA1c <7% and ≤8% were greater with saxagliptin than placebo and consistent across risk score groups. AE profile and hypoglycemia incidence were similar for saxagliptin and placebo across UKPDS risk score groups. Saxagliptin was well tolerated and improved glycemic control in patients with T2DM regardless of their CHD and stroke UKPDS risk score. Clinical trial registration numbers: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00121641, NCT00316082, NCT00121667, NCT00313313, and NCT00295633. Copyright © 2015 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short Berg Balance Scale, BBS-9, as a predictor of fall risk among the aged: a prospective 12-month follow-up study.

PubMed

Hohtari-Kivimäki, Ulla; Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa

2013-12-01

The aim of this study was to assess the adequacy of the short, 9-item Berg Balance Scale (BBS-9) to predict fall risk among the community-dwelling aged. The subjects (n = 519) were derived from the participants in a multifactorial fall prevention intervention conducted in Pori, Finland. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the cut-off score for BBS-9 (range 0-36) to classify aged people with a fall risk during a 12-month follow-up. Logistic regression was used to analyse the relationship of potential confounders with fall risk. The association between the cut-off score for BBS-9 and fall risk was tested using the Chi-square test. In determining the cut-off score of BBS-9 to classify fall risk, the highest sensitivity (0.51) and specificity (0.57) (when both presumed to be above 0.50) sum score was within the limit range 32 scores or below. The area under curve (AUC) was significantly better in the model adjusted for significant confounders (vision and the number of regularly used drugs) (AUC = 0.64) than in the unadjusted model (AUC = 0.57) (p = 0.045). Among patients who scored 32 or below in BBS-9 the incidence of multiple falls was 20.0 %, whereas among those who scored 33-36 it was 15.7 %. BBS-9 with the cut-off score of 32/33 together with data on vision and the number of regularly used drugs predicted moderately the risk of falling among the community-dwelling aged.

Physical risk factors identification based on body sensor network combined to videotaping.

PubMed

Vignais, Nicolas; Bernard, Fabien; Touvenot, Gérard; Sagot, Jean-Claude

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to perform an ergonomic analysis of a material handling task by combining a subtask video analysis and a RULA computation, implemented continuously through a motion capture system combining inertial sensors and electrogoniometers. Five workers participated to the experiment. Seven inertial measurement units, placed on the worker's upper body (pelvis, thorax, head, arms, forearms), were implemented through a biomechanical model of the upper body to continuously provide trunk, neck, shoulder and elbow joint angles. Wrist joint angles were derived from electrogoniometers synchronized with the inertial measurement system. Worker's activity was simultaneously recorded using video. During post-processing, joint angles were used as inputs to a computationally implemented ergonomic evaluation based on the RULA method. Consequently a RULA score was calculated at each time step to characterize the risk of exposure of the upper body (right and left sides). Local risk scores were also computed to identify the anatomical origin of the exposure. Moreover, the video-recorded work activity was time-studied in order to classify and quantify all subtasks involved into the task. Results showed that mean RULA scores were at high risk for all participants (6 and 6.2 for right and left sides respectively). A temporal analysis demonstrated that workers spent most part of the work time at a RULA score of 7 (right: 49.19 ± 35.27%; left: 55.5 ± 29.69%). Mean local scores revealed that most exposed joints during the task were elbows, lower arms, wrists and hands. Elbows and lower arms were indeed at a high level of risk during the total time of a work cycle (100% for right and left sides). Wrist and hands were also exposed to a risky level for much of the period of work (right: 82.13 ± 7.46%; left: 77.85 ± 12.46%). Concerning the subtask analysis, subtasks called 'snow thrower', 'opening the vacuum sealer', 'cleaning' and 'storing' have been identified as the most awkward for right and left sides given mean RULA scores and percentages of time spent at risky levels. Results analysis permitted to suggest ergonomic recommendations for the redesign of the workstation. Contributions of the proposed innovative system dedicated to physical ergonomic assessment are further discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A tool for prediction of risk of rehospitalisation and mortality in the hospitalised elderly: secondary analysis of clinical trial data

PubMed Central

Alassaad, Anna; Melhus, Håkan; Hammarlund-Udenaes, Margareta; Bertilsson, Maria; Gillespie, Ulrika; Sundström, Johan

2015-01-01

Objectives To construct and internally validate a risk score, the ‘80+ score’, for revisits to hospital and mortality for older patients, incorporating aspects of pharmacotherapy. Our secondary aim was to compare the discriminatory ability of the score with that of three validated tools for measuring inappropriate prescribing: Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions (STOPP), Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START) and Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI). Setting Two acute internal medicine wards at Uppsala University hospital. Patient data were used from a randomised controlled trial investigating the effects of a comprehensive clinical pharmacist intervention. Participants Data from 368 patients, aged 80 years and older, admitted to one of the study wards. Primary outcome measure Time to rehospitalisation or death during the year after discharge from hospital. Candidate variables were selected among a large number of clinical and drug-specific variables. After a selection process, a score for risk estimation was constructed. The 80+ score was internally validated, and the discriminatory ability of the score and of STOPP, START and MAI was assessed using C-statistics. Results Seven variables were selected. Impaired renal function, pulmonary disease, malignant disease, living in a nursing home, being prescribed an opioid or being prescribed a drug for peptic ulcer or gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with an increased risk, while being prescribed an antidepressant drug (tricyclic antidepressants not included) was linked to a lower risk of the outcome. These variables made up the components of the 80+ score. The C-statistics were 0.71 (80+), 0.57 (STOPP), 0.54 (START) and 0.63 (MAI). Conclusions We developed and internally validated a score for prediction of risk of rehospitalisation and mortality in hospitalised older people. The score discriminated risk better than available tools for inappropriate prescribing. Pending external validation, this score can aid in clinical identification of high-risk patients and targeting of interventions. PMID:25694461

Analysis of risk factors for postoperative morbidity in perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Kim, Jae-Myung; Jeong, Sang-Ho; Lee, Young-Joon; Park, Soon-Tae; Choi, Sang-Kyung; Hong, Soon-Chan; Jung, Eun-Jung; Ju, Young-Tae; Jeong, Chi-Young; Ha, Woo-Song

2012-03-01

Emergency operations for perforated peptic ulcer are associated with a high incidence of postoperative complications. While several studies have investigated the impact of perioperative risk factors and underlying diseases on the postoperative morbidity after abdominal surgery, only a few have analyzed their role in perforated peptic ulcer disease. The purpose of this study was to determine any possible associations between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease or perioperative risk factors in perforated peptic ulcer. In total, 142 consecutive patients, who underwent surgery for perforated peptic ulcer, at a single institution, between January 2005 and October 2010 were included in this study. The clinical data concerning the patient characteristics, operative methods, and complications were collected retrospectively. The postoperative morbidity rate associated with perforated peptic ulcer operations was 36.6% (52/142). Univariate analysis revealed that a long operating time, the open surgical method, age (≥60), sex (female), high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and presence of preoperative shock were significant perioperative risk factors for postoperative morbidity. Significant comorbid risk factors included hypertension, diabetes mellitus and pulmonary disease. Multivariate analysis revealed a long operating time, the open surgical method, high ASA score and the presence of preoperative shock were all independent risk factors for the postoperative morbidity in perforated peptic ulcer. A high ASA score, preoperative shock, open surgery and long operating time of more than 150 minutes are high risk factors for morbidity. However, there is no association between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease in patients with a perforated peptic ulcer.

Cardiovascular risk estimation in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term: a longitudinal follow-up study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease is associated with major morbidity and mortality in women in the Western world. Prediction of an individual cardiovascular disease risk in young women is difficult. It is known that women with hypertensive pregnancy complications have an increased risk for developing cardiovascular disease in later life and pregnancy might be used as a cardiovascular stress test to identify women who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. In this study we assess the possibility of long term cardiovascular risk prediction in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term. Methods In a longitudinal follow-up study, between June 2008 and November 2010, 300 women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term (HTP cohort) and 94 women with a history of normotensive pregnancies at term (NTP cohort) were included. From the cardiovascular risk status that was known two years after index pregnancy we calculated individual (extrapolated) 10-and 30-year cardiovascular event risks using four different risk prediction models including the Framingham risk score, the SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score. Continuous data were analyzed using the Student’s T test and Mann–Whitney U test and categorical data by the Chi-squared test. A poisson regression analysis was performed to calculate the incidence risk ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for the different cardiovascular risk estimation categories. Results After a mean follow-up of 2.5 years, HTP women had significantly higher mean (SD) extrapolated 10-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 7.2% (3.7); NTP 4.4% (1.9) (p<.001, IRR 5.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 19)) and 30-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 11% (7.6); NTP 7.3% (3.5) (p<.001, IRR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.5)) as compared to NTP women calculated by the Framingham risk scores. The SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score showed similar significant results. Conclusions Women with a history of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia at term have higher predicted (extrapolated) 10-year and 30-year cardiovascular event risks as compared to women with a history of uncomplicated pregnancies. Further large prospective studies have to evaluate whether hypertensive pregnancy disorders have to be included as an independent variable in cardiovascular risk prediction models for women. PMID:23734952

The effect of routine early amniotomy on spontaneous labor: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brisson-Carroll, G; Fraser, W; Bréart, G; Krauss, I; Thornton, J

1996-05-01

To obtain estimates of the effects of amniotomy on the risk of cesarean delivery and on other indicators of maternal and neonatal morbidity (Apgar score less than 7 at 5 minutes, admission to neonatal intensive care unit [NICU]). Published studies were identified through manual and computerized searches using Medline and the Cochrane Collaboration Pregnancy and Childbirth Database. Our search identified ten trials, all published in peer-reviewed journals. Trials were assigned a methodological quality score based on a standardized rating system. Three trials were excluded from the analysis for methodological limitations. Data were abstracted by two trained reviewers. Typical odds ratios (OR) were calculated. Amniotomy was associated with a reduction in labor duration varying from 0.8-2.3 hours. There was a nonstatistically significant increase in the risk of cesarean delivery; OR 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-1.6. The risk of a 5-minute Apgar score less than 7 was reduced in association with early amniotomy (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9). Groups were similar with respect to other indicators of neonatal status (arterial cord pH, NICU admissions). Routine early amniotomy is associated with both benefits and risks. Benefits include a reduction in labor duration and a possible reduction in abnormal 5-minute Apgar scores. This meta-analysis provides no support for the hypothesis that routine early amniotomy reduces the risk of cesarean delivery. An association between early amniotomy and cesarean delivery for fetal distress was noted in one large trial, suggesting that amniotomy should be reserved for patients with abnormal labor progress.

Application of failure mode and effects analysis to intracranial stereotactic radiation surgery by linear accelerator.

PubMed

Masini, Laura; Donis, Laura; Loi, Gianfranco; Mones, Eleonora; Molina, Elisa; Bolchini, Cesare; Krengli, Marco

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the application of the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to intracranial stereotactic radiation surgery (SRS) by linear accelerator in order to identify the potential failure modes in the process tree and adopt appropriate safety measures to prevent adverse events (AEs) and near-misses, thus improving the process quality. A working group was set up to perform FMEA for intracranial SRS in the framework of a quality assurance program. FMEA was performed in 4 consecutive tasks: (1) creation of a visual map of the process; (2) identification of possible failure modes; (3) assignment of a risk probability number (RPN) to each failure mode based on tabulated scores of severity, frequency of occurrence and detectability; and (4) identification of preventive measures to minimize the risk of occurrence. The whole SRS procedure was subdivided into 73 single steps; 116 total possible failure modes were identified and a score of severity, occurrence, and detectability was assigned to each. Based on these scores, RPN was calculated for each failure mode thus obtaining values from 1 to 180. In our analysis, 112/116 (96.6%) RPN values were <60, 2 (1.7%) between 60 and 125 (63, 70), and 2 (1.7%) >125 (135, 180). The 2 highest RPN scores were assigned to the risk of using the wrong collimator's size and incorrect coordinates on the laser target localizer frame. Failure modes and effects analysis is a simple and practical proactive tool for systematic analysis of risks in radiation therapy. In our experience of SRS, FMEA led to the adoption of major changes in various steps of the SRS procedure.

Early Cannabis Use, Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia, and Brain Maturation in Adolescence

PubMed Central

French, Leon; Gray, Courtney; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, G. Bruce; Richer, Louis; Séguin, Jean R.; Veillette, Suzanne; Evans, C. John; Artiges, Eric; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun W. L.; Bromberg, Uli; Bruehl, Ruediger; Buchel, Christian; Cattrell, Anna; Conrod, Patricia J.; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Gallinat, Jurgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Lemaitre, Herve; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Orfanos, Dimitri Papadopoulos; Pangelinan, Melissa Marie; Poustka, Luise; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N.; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Timpson, Nic J.; Schumann, Gunter; Smith, George Davey; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Cannabis use during adolescence is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia in men. Sex differences in the dynamics of brain maturation during adolescence may be of particular importance with regard to vulnerability of the male brain to cannabis exposure. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the association between cannabis use and cortical maturation in adolescents is moderated by a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observation of 3 population-based samples included initial analysis in 1024 adolescents of both sexes from the Canadian Saguenay Youth Study (SYS) and follow-up in 426 adolescents of both sexes from the IMAGEN Study from 8 European cities and 504 male youth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based in England. A total of 1577 participants (aged 12–21 years; 899 [57.0%] male) had (1) information about cannabis use; (2) imaging studies of the brain; and (3) a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia across 108 genetic loci identified by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Data analysis was performed from March 1 through December 31, 2014. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cortical thickness derived from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear regression tests were used to assess the relationships between cannabis use, cortical thickness, and risk score. RESULTS Across the 3 samples of 1574 participants, a negative association was observed between cannabis use in early adolescence and cortical thickness in male participants with a high polygenic risk score. This observation was not the case for low-risk male participants or for the low- or high-risk female participants. Thus, in SYS male participants, cannabis use interacted with risk score vis-à-vis cortical thickness (P = .009); higher scores were associated with lower thickness only in males who used cannabis. Similarly, in the IMAGEN male participants, cannabis use interacted with increased risk score vis-à-vis a change in decreasing cortical thickness from 14.5 to 18.5 years of age (t137 = −2.36; P = .02). Finally, in the ALSPAC high-risk group of male participants, those who used cannabis most frequently (≥61 occasions) had lower cortical thickness than those who never used cannabis (difference in cortical thickness, 0.07 [95% CI, 0.01–0.12]; P = .02) and those with light use (<5 occasions) (difference in cortical thickness, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.03–0.18]; P = .004). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Cannabis use in early adolescence moderates the association between the genetic risk for schizophrenia and cortical maturation among male individuals. This finding implicates processes underlying cortical maturation in mediating the link between cannabis use and liability to schizophrenia. PMID:26308966

Perineural invasion is associated with increased relapse after external beam radiotherapy for men with low-risk prostate cancer and may be a marker for occult, high-grade cancer.

PubMed

Beard, C J; Chen, M H; Cote, K; Loffredo, M; Renshaw, A A; Hurwitz, M; D'Amico, A V

2004-01-01

To investigate the risk of postradiotherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure on the basis of pretreatment risk factors in prostate cancer patients with and without perineural invasion (PNI) in prostate biopsy specimens and to explain the observation that otherwise low-risk patients with PNI experience decreased freedom from PSA failure after external beam radiotherapy (RT). The study cohort consisted of 381 patients who underwent RT between 1989 and 2000 for clinically localized prostate cancer. A single genitourinary pathologist scored the absence or presence of PNI on all prostate biopsy specimens. Patients were divided into low-, intermediate- and high-risk subgroups on the basis of their 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer T-stage, pretreatment PSA level, and Gleason score. Cox regression uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate whether the presence or absence of PNI in the biopsy specimen was a predictor of the time to post-RT PSA failure for patients in each pretreatment risk group. PSA failure was defined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology consensus definition. Actuarial PSA failure-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and comparisons were performed using the log-rank test. Cox regression univariate analysis revealed that PNI was a significant predictor of the time to PSA failure in the low-risk (p = 0.04) and high-risk (p = 0.03) cohorts. The 5-year PSA failure-free survival rate was 50% vs. 80% (p = 0.04) in low-risk patients, 70% vs. 75% (p = 0.72) in intermediate-risk patients, and 29% vs. 53% (p = 0.03) in high-risk patients with and without PNI, respectively. Cox regression multivariate analysis within the high-risk group revealed that a PSA level > or =20 ng/mL (p = 0.01) and Gleason score > or =8 (p = 0.02), but not PNI, were the only significant predictors of the time to PSA failure after RT. However, an association was found between the presence of PNI in the needle biopsy specimen and a biopsy Gleason score of 8-10 (p = 0.06). The association was stronger between the presence of PNI in the needle biopsy specimen and a biopsy Gleason score of 7-10 (p = 0. 033). A decrement in PSA outcome after RT for low-risk patients with PNI-positive biopsy specimens was found. The association between PNI and high Gleason score provides a possible explanation for the loss of statistical significance of PNI in the Cox regression multivariate analysis of the high-risk cohort. The data suggest that PNI found in the biopsy specimen of an otherwise low-risk patient predicts for occult high-grade disease that is missed owing to the sampling error associated with prostate biopsy. The association between PNI and a high Gleason score argues for the use of more aggressive therapy, such as hormonal therapy with RT and/or dose escalation, in these select patients.

A Multigene Expression Assay to Predict Local Recurrence Risk for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ of the Breast

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background For women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, the risk of developing an ipsilateral breast event (IBE; defined as local recurrence of DCIS or invasive carcinoma) after surgical excision without radiation is not well defined by clinical and pathologic characteristics. Methods The Oncotype DX breast cancer assay was performed for patients with DCIS treated with surgical excision without radiation in the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) E5194 study. The association of the prospectively defined DCIS Score (calculated from seven cancer-related genes and five reference genes) with the risk of developing an IBE was analyzed using Cox regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results There were 327 patients with adequate tissue for analysis. The continuous DCIS Score was statistically significantly associated with the risk of developing an IBE (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 4.49; P = .02) when adjusted for tamoxifen use (prespecified primary analysis) and with invasive IBE (unadjusted HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.34 to 9.62; P = .01). For the prespecified DCIS risk groups of low, intermediate, and high, the 10-year risks of developing an IBE were 10.6%, 26.7%, and 25.9%, respectively, and for an invasive IBE, 3.7%, 12.3%, and 19.2%, respectively (both log rank P ≤ .006). In multivariable analyses, factors associated with IBE risk were DCIS Score, tumor size, and menopausal status (all P ≤ .02). Conclusions The DCIS Score quantifies IBE risk and invasive IBE risk, complements traditional clinical and pathologic factors, and provides a new clinical tool to improve selecting individualized treatment for women with DCIS who meet the ECOG E5194 criteria. PMID:23641039

A multigene expression assay to predict local recurrence risk for ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

PubMed

Solin, Lawrence J; Gray, Robert; Baehner, Frederick L; Butler, Steven M; Hughes, Lorie L; Yoshizawa, Carl; Cherbavaz, Diana B; Shak, Steven; Page, David L; Sledge, George W; Davidson, Nancy E; Ingle, James N; Perez, Edith A; Wood, William C; Sparano, Joseph A; Badve, Sunil

2013-05-15

For women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, the risk of developing an ipsilateral breast event (IBE; defined as local recurrence of DCIS or invasive carcinoma) after surgical excision without radiation is not well defined by clinical and pathologic characteristics. The Oncotype DX breast cancer assay was performed for patients with DCIS treated with surgical excision without radiation in the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) E5194 study. The association of the prospectively defined DCIS Score (calculated from seven cancer-related genes and five reference genes) with the risk of developing an IBE was analyzed using Cox regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. There were 327 patients with adequate tissue for analysis. The continuous DCIS Score was statistically significantly associated with the risk of developing an IBE (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 4.49; P = .02) when adjusted for tamoxifen use (prespecified primary analysis) and with invasive IBE (unadjusted HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.34 to 9.62; P = .01). For the prespecified DCIS risk groups of low, intermediate, and high, the 10-year risks of developing an IBE were 10.6%, 26.7%, and 25.9%, respectively, and for an invasive IBE, 3.7%, 12.3%, and 19.2%, respectively (both log rank P ≤ .006). In multivariable analyses, factors associated with IBE risk were DCIS Score, tumor size, and menopausal status (all P ≤ .02). The DCIS Score quantifies IBE risk and invasive IBE risk, complements traditional clinical and pathologic factors, and provides a new clinical tool to improve selecting individualized treatment for women with DCIS who meet the ECOG E5194 criteria.

Mild pulmonary emphysema a risk factor for interstitial lung disease when using cetuximab for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.

PubMed

Okamoto, Isaku; Tsukahara, Kiyoaki; Sato, Hiroki; Motohashi, Ray; Yunaiyama, Daisuke; Shimizu, Akira

2017-12-01

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an occasionally fatal adverse event associated with cetuximab (Cmab) therapy. Our objective was to clarify to what degree pulmonary emphysema is a risk factor in the treatment of head and neck cancer with Cmab through a retrospective analysis. Subjects were 116 patients who were administered Cmab for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The degree of pulmonary emphysema before initiating treatment with Cmab was visually assessed retrospectively, with scoring according to the Goddard classification used in Japanese chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines for chest computed tomography (CT). Scoring was conducted by two diagnostic radiologists and mean scores were used. Cutoffs for the development and nondevelopment of ILD were examined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Fisher's exact test. Values of p < .05 were considered to indicate a significant difference. Among the 116 patients, 11 (9.5%) developed ILD, and 105 (90.5%) did not. In ROC analysis, the optimal Goddard score cut-off of <3.0 offered 55% sensitivity and 81% specificity (p = .015). With a cutoff of <3.0, even very mild pulmonary emphysema would represent a risk factor for ILD when using Cmab.

Risk score elaboration for mediastinitis after coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Magedanz, Ellen Hettwer; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Guaragna, João Carlos Vieira da Costa; Albuquerque, Luciano Cabral; Martins, Valério; Minossi, Silvia Daniela; Piccoli, Jacqueline da Costa Escobar; Goldani, Marco Antônio

2010-01-01

The mediastinitis is a serious postoperative complication of cardiac surgery, with an incidence of 0.4 to 5% and mortality between 14 and 47%. Several models were proposed to assess risk of mediastinitis after cardiac surgery. However, most of these models do not evaluate the postoperative morbidity. This study aims to develop a score risk model to predict the risk of mediastinitis for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. The study sample included data from 2,809 adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting between January 1996 and December 2007 at Hospital São Lucas -PUCRS. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between risk factors and the development of mediastinitis. Data from 1,889 patients were used to develop the model and its performance was evaluated in the remaining data (n=920). The definitive model was created with the data analysis of 2,809 patients. The rate of mediastinitis was 3.3%, with mortality of 26.6%. In the multivariate analysis, five variables remained independent predictors of the outcome: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, surgical reintervention, blood transfusion and stable angina class IV or unstable. The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.78) and P = 0.61. The risk score was constructed for use in daily practice to calculate the rate of mediastinitis after coronary artery bypass grafting. The score includes routinely collected variables and is simple to use.

Genetic polymorphisms associated with increased risk of developing chronic myelogenous leukemia

PubMed Central

Bruzzoni-Giovanelli, Heriberto; González, Juan R.; Sigaux, François; Villoutreix, Bruno O.; Cayuela, Jean Michel; Guilhot, Joëlle; Preudhomme, Claude; Guilhot, François; Poyet, Jean-Luc; Rousselot, Philippe

2015-01-01

Little is known about inherited factors associated with the risk of developing chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). We used a dedicated DNA chip containing 16 561 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) covering 1 916 candidate genes to analyze 437 CML patients and 1 144 healthy control individuals. Single SNP association analysis identified 139 SNPs that passed multiple comparisons (1% false discovery rate). The HDAC9, AVEN, SEMA3C, IKBKB, GSTA3, RIPK1 and FGF2 genes were each represented by three SNPs, the PSM family by four SNPs and the SLC15A1 gene by six. Haplotype analysis showed that certain combinations of rare alleles of these genes increased the risk of developing CML by more than two or three-fold. A classification tree model identified five SNPs belonging to the genes PSMB10, TNFRSF10D, PSMB2, PPARD and CYP26B1, which were associated with CML predisposition. A CML-risk-allele score was created using these five SNPs. This score was accurate for discriminating CML status (AUC: 0.61, 95%CI: 0.58–0.64). Interestingly, the score was associated with age at diagnosis and the average number of risk alleles was significantly higher in younger patients. The risk-allele score showed the same distribution in the general population (HapMap CEU samples) as in our control individuals and was associated with differential gene expression patterns of two genes (VAPA and TDRKH). In conclusion, we describe haplotypes and a genetic score that are significantly associated with a predisposition to develop CML. The SNPs identified will also serve to drive fundamental research on the putative role of these genes in CML development. PMID:26474455

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

Do self- or parent-reported dietary, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors predict worsening obesity in children?

PubMed

Dorsey, Karen B; Mauldon, Maria; Magraw, Ruth; Yu, Sunkyung; Krumholz, Harlan M

2010-10-01

To determine whether information gathered during routine healthcare visits regarding obesity related risk factors and risk behaviors predicts increases in BMI z-score over time among overweight and obese children. Medical records from 168 overweight and 441 obese patients seen for repeated visits between September 2003 and April 2006 were examined for reported dietary, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors, family history of obesity and diabetes mellitus, documented Acanthosis nigricans, and BMI values. Random-effects regression analysis was done to determine whether demographic, familial, or behavioral data predicted changes in BMI z-score over time. The presence of A nigricans and a family history of obesity were associated with an increase in BMI z-score (beta=0.56, SE=0.09, P<.001 and beta=0.31, SE=0.13, P=.021). These risk factors explained 8% and 7% of the variation in BMI z-score respectively. Self- or parent-reported dietary and physical activity behaviors did not predict change in BMI z-score. Our findings suggest that the risk factors and self- or parent-reported risk behaviors routinely assessed by pediatric clinicians have limited ability to predict future growth trends, demonstrating the difficulty in determining which patients have the greatest risk of progression of obesity. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Selection into Consumer-Directed Health Plans: An Analysis of Family Choices within Large Employers

PubMed Central

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-01-01

Objective To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Data Sources/Study Setting Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. Study Design We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. Principal Findings CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Conclusions Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans. PMID:24800305

Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-07-01

Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maximization of the usage of coronary CTA derived plaque information using a machine learning based algorithm to improve risk stratification; insights from the CONFIRM registry.

PubMed

van Rosendael, Alexander R; Maliakal, Gabriel; Kolli, Kranthi K; Beecy, Ashley; Al'Aref, Subhi J; Dwivedi, Aeshita; Singh, Gurpreet; Panday, Mohit; Kumar, Amit; Ma, Xiaoyue; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Bax, Jeroen J; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; DeLago, Augustin; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon A; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert L; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Gransar, Heidi; Lu, Yao; Jones, Erica C; Peña, Jessica M; Lin, Fay Y; Min, James K

Machine learning (ML) is a field in computer science that demonstrated to effectively integrate clinical and imaging data for the creation of prognostic scores. The current study investigated whether a ML score, incorporating only the 16 segment coronary tree information derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), provides enhanced risk stratification compared with current CCTA based risk scores. From the multi-center CONFIRM registry, patients were included with complete CCTA risk score information and ≥3 year follow-up for myocardial infarction and death (primary endpoint). Patients with prior coronary artery disease were excluded. Conventional CCTA risk scores (conventional CCTA approach, segment involvement score, duke prognostic index, segment stenosis score, and the Leaman risk score) and a score created using ML were compared for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Only 16 segment based coronary stenosis (0%, 1-24%, 25-49%, 50-69%, 70-99% and 100%) and composition (calcified, mixed and non-calcified plaque) were provided to the ML model. A boosted ensemble algorithm (extreme gradient boosting; XGBoost) was used and the entire data was randomly split into a training set (80%) and testing set (20%). First, tuned hyperparameters were used to generate a trained model from the training data set (80% of data). Second, the performance of this trained model was independently tested on the unseen test set (20% of data). In total, 8844 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 11.5 years, 57.7% male) were included. During a mean follow-up time of 4.6 ± 1.5 years, 609 events occurred (6.9%). No CAD was observed in 48.7% (3.5% event), non-obstructive CAD in 31.8% (6.8% event), and obstructive CAD in 19.5% (15.6% event). Discrimination of events as expressed by AUC was significantly better for the ML based approach (0.771) vs the other scores (ranging from 0.685 to 0.701), P < 0.001. Net reclassification improvement analysis showed that the improved risk stratification was the result of down-classification of risk among patients that did not experience events (non-events). A risk score created by a ML based algorithm, that utilizes standard 16 coronary segment stenosis and composition information derived from detailed CCTA reading, has greater prognostic accuracy than current CCTA integrated risk scores. These findings indicate that a ML based algorithm can improve the integration of CCTA derived plaque information to improve risk stratification. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Temporal changes and risk factors for foot-pad dermatitis in Danish broilers.

PubMed

Kyvsgaard, Niels Chr; Jensen, Henrik Bang; Ambrosen, Thorkil; Toft, Nils

2013-01-01

Foot-pad dermatitis is a major welfare concern of broilers caused by ammonia irritation from the bedding material. In Denmark, an action plan to control the condition was implemented in 2002 with monitoring through a foot scoring system at slaughter and with predefined limits that trigger sanctions. The objective of the present study was to study time trends and to identify predisposing factors on the flock lesion scores. The analysis was carried out on a database created by merging abattoir lesion data with antemortem evaluation data, and the flock productivity database managed by the farmers' association. The database had a record for each flock and variables containing information on both flock foot-pad scores and a range of management factors. We observed a dramatic decline in flock lesion scores between the years 2002 and 2005 followed by a minimal decline hereafter. Mean flock lesion scores differed between abattoirs, and subsequent analysis was performed in a mixed effect model where abattoir was considered a random effect. The analysis showed that flock lesion scores increased when the litter quality was evaluated as poor during the on-site antemortem evaluation. Other significant risk factors were winter season as opposed to summer, low daily weight gain, straw as bedding material in contrast to wood shavings and sphagnum peat, and high age at slaughter. Stocking density was only weakly associated with flock lesion scores.

How close are we to implementing a genetic risk score for coronary heart disease?

PubMed

Beaney, Katherine; Drenos, Fotios; Humphries, Steve E

2017-10-01

Genome-wide association meta-analysis have now identified more than 150 loci where common variants (SNPs) are significantly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and CHD end points. Areas covered: The authors review publications from their own laboratory and published recently where identified CHD risk SNPs are used in combination, and 'scaled' by their effect size, to create a 'weighted' Genetic risk Score (GRS), which, in combination with an individual's classical CHD risk factors, can be used to identify those at overall low, intermediate and high future risk. Those at highest risk can be offered life-style and therapeutic options to reduce their risk and those at intermediate levels can be monitored. Expert commentary: The authors discuss the selection of the best variants to be included in the GRS, and the potential utility of such scores in different clinical settings. The limitations of the current data sets and the way forward in the next 5 years is discussed.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Tighe, D; Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-04-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A-C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34-51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A-C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer

PubMed Central

Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A–C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34–51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer–Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A–C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists. PMID:27917662

Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

2014-12-01

Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not. Modifiable cardiovascular risk factors and older age may independently exacerbate balance-related disability in Parkinson disease and may exert additive or synergistic pathological effects. The pathophysiology of these impairments cannot be explained completely by nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation or leukoaraiosis burden and may relate to systemic factors seen with accelerated aging. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validation of a Simple Score to Determine Risk of Early Rejection After Pediatric Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

Butts, Ryan J; Savage, Andrew J; Atz, Andrew M; Heal, Elisabeth M; Burnette, Ali L; Kavarana, Minoo M; Bradley, Scott M; Chowdhury, Shahryar M

2015-09-01

This study aimed to develop a reliable and feasible score to assess the risk of rejection in pediatric heart transplantation recipients during the first post-transplant year. The first post-transplant year is the most likely time for rejection to occur in pediatric heart transplantation. Rejection during this period is associated with worse outcomes. The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for pediatric patients (age <18 years) who underwent isolated orthotopic heart transplantation from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2012. Transplantations were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 2,686) and a validation (n = 509) cohort. The validation cohort was randomly selected from 20% of transplantations from 2005 to 2012. Covariates found to be associated with rejection (p < 0.2) were included in the initial multivariable logistic regression model. The final model was derived by including only variables independently associated with rejection. A risk score was then developed using relative magnitudes of the covariates' odds ratio. The score was then tested in the validation cohort. A 9-point risk score using 3 variables (age, cardiac diagnosis, and panel reactive antibody) was developed. Mean score in the derivation and validation cohorts were 4.5 ± 2.6 and 4.8 ± 2.7, respectively. A higher score was associated with an increased rate of rejection (score = 0, 10.6% in the validation cohort vs. score = 9, 40%; p < 0.01). In weighted regression analysis, the model-predicted risk of rejection correlated closely with the actual rates of rejection in the validation cohort (R(2) = 0.86; p < 0.01). The rejection score is accurate in determining the risk of early rejection in pediatric heart transplantation recipients. The score has the potential to be used in clinical practice to aid in determining the immunosuppressant regimen and the frequency of rejection surveillance in the first post-transplant year. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

PubMed

Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

2010-01-01

The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

Platelet-rich plasma versus autologous blood versus steroid injection in lateral epicondylitis: systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Arirachakaran, Alisara; Sukthuayat, Amnat; Sisayanarane, Thaworn; Laoratanavoraphong, Sorawut; Kanchanatawan, Wichan; Kongtharvonskul, Jatupon

2016-06-01

Clinical outcomes between the use of platelet-rich plasma (PRP), autologous blood (AB) and corticosteroid (CS) injection in lateral epicondylitis are still controversial. A systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was conducted with the aim of comparing relevant clinical outcomes between the use of PRP, AB and CS injection. Medline and Scopus databases were searched from inception to January 2015. A network meta-analysis was performed by applying weight regression for continuous outcomes and a mixed-effect Poisson regression for dichotomous outcomes. Ten of 374 identified studies were eligible. When compared to CS, AB injection showed significantly improved effects with unstandardized mean differences (UMD) in pain visual analog scale (VAS), Disabilities of Arm Shoulder and Hand (DASH), Patient-Related Tennis Elbow Evaluation (PRTEE) score and pressure pain threshold (PPT) of -2.5 (95 % confidence interval, -3.5, -1.5), -25.5 (-33.8, -17.2), -5.3 (-9.1, -1.6) and 9.9 (5.6, 14.2), respectively. PRP injections also showed significantly improved VAS and DASH scores when compared with CS. PRP showed significantly better VAS with UMD when compared to AB injection. AB injection has a higher risk of adverse effects, with a relative risk of 1.78 (1.00, 3.17), when compared to CS. The network meta-analysis suggested no statistically significant difference in multiple active treatment comparisons of VAS, DASH and PRTEE when comparing PRP and AB injections. However, AB injection had improved DASH score and PPT when compared with PRP injection. In terms of adverse effects, AB injection had a higher risk than PRP injection. This network meta-analysis provided additional information that PRP injection can improve pain and lower the risk of complications, whereas AB injection can improve pain, disabilities scores and pressure pain threshold but has a higher risk of complications. Level I evidence.

Relative contribution of genetic, individual, and self-efficacy factors to smoking cessation in a Chinese rural population.

PubMed

Wang, Qiang; Li, Suyun; Li, Huijie; Yang, Xiaorong; Jiang, Fan; Zhang, Nan; Han, Mingkui; Jia, Chongqi

2017-03-01

Nicotine dependence is influenced by genetic, individual, and psychological factors. We aimed to examine whether nicotinic acetylcholine receptor genes (CHRN) were associated with smoking cessation (SC) using genetic risk score and compare the relative contribution of genetic, individual and self-efficacy factors to SC. Eight hundred and nineteen male smokers (mean age: 59.62) were recruited from 17 villages of three counties in Shandong province, China. Thirty-two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in seven CHRN genes were genotyped. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between genetic risk score and SC. Dominance analysis was performed to compare the relative contribution of genetic, individual, and self-efficacy factors on SC. CHRNA3 genetic risk score was associated with SC. Dominance analysis showed that individual factor was the most important predictor for SC, followed by genetic and self-efficacy factors. CHRNA3 was associated with successful SC. Individual factor had more contribution than genetic factor to SC. Our findings provide support to the role of CHRN genes in the etiology of smoking cessation using genetic risk score. Individual factor should be particularly valued in smoking control intervention. (Am J Addict 2017;26:161-166). © 2017 American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Risk Stratification of Patients With Current Generation Continuous-Flow Left Ventricular Assist Devices Being Bridged to Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

Guha, Ashrith; Nguyen, Duc; Cruz-Solbes, Ana S; Amione-Guerra, Javier; Schutt, Robert C; Bhimaraj, Arvind; Trachtenberg, Barry H; Park, Myung H; Graviss, Edward A; Gaber, Osama; Suarez, Erik; Montane, Eva; Torre-Amione, Guillermo; Estep, Jerry D

Patients bridged to transplant (BTT) with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVADs) have increased in the past decade. Decision support tools for these patients are limited. We developed a risk score to estimate prognosis and guide decision-making. We included heart transplant recipients bridged with CF-LVADs from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database and divided them into development (2,522 patients) and validation cohorts (1,681 patients). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were performed. Variables that independently predicted outcomes (age, African American race, recipient body mass index [BMI], intravenous [IV] antibiotic use, pretransplant dialysis, and total bilirubin) were assigned weight using linear transformation, and risk scores were derived. Patients were grouped by predicted posttransplant mortality: low risk (≤ 38 points), medium risk (38-41 points), and high risk (≥ 42 points). We performed Cox proportional hazards analysis on wait-listed CF-LVAD patients who were not transplanted. Score significantly discriminated survival among the groups in the development cohort (6.7, 12.9, 20.7; p = 0.001), validation cohort (6.4, 10.1, 13.6; p < 0.001), and ambulatory cohort (6.4, 11.5, 17.2; p < 0.001). We derived a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) BTT risk score that effectively identifies CF-LVAD patients who are at higher risk for worse outcomes after heart transplant. This score may help physicians weigh the risks of transplantation in patients with CF-LVAD.

Assessment of risk of type 2 diabetes using the Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an urban slum of Pune, Maharashtra, India: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Patil, Reshma S; Gothankar, Jayashree S

2016-04-01

The urban poor is a group that is known to be vulnerable to adoption of a more urbanized lifestyle that places them at a higher risk for diabetes. Individuals who are unaware of their disease status are more prone to micro- and macrovascular complications. Hence, it is necessary to detect this large pool of undiagnosed participants with diabetes and offer them early therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Indian Diabetes Risk Score, developed by the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF-IDRS), to assess the prevalence of people at high risk for developing diabetes, and the correlation with known risk factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the field practice area of the urban health training centre of a private medical college in Pune, Maharashtra. A total of 425 participants aged 20 years and above were screened for risk factors, including age, waist circumference, family history of diabetes and physical activity. Random testing of the blood glucose level of participants with a high risk score was carried out using a glucometer. Statistical analysis of the data was performed by using the chi-squared test and logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of people at high risk of diabetes was 36.55%. Among high-risk participants on univariate analysis, primary education (P = 0.004), lower socioeconomic class (P = 0.002), less physical activity (P< 0.001) and high waist circumference (P < 0.001) were major contributing factors, while in the moderate-risk group, lower socioeconomic class and high waist circumference were the prominent risk factors for diabetes. Multivariate analysis showed that higher education, moderate to vigorous activity and high waist circumference were significantly associated with risk status. Out of 140 high-risk participants, 68 (49%) had a random capillary blood glucose level of 110 mg/dL or above. As the prevalence of people at high risk for diabetes was high, lifestyle changes and awareness regarding risk factors is needed to take control of the diabetes in the study population.

Does the Sex Risk Quiz Predict Mycoplasma genitalium Infection in Urban Adolescents and Young Adult Women?

PubMed

Ronda, Jocelyn; Gaydos, Charlotte A; Perin, Jamie; Tabacco, Lisa; Coleman, Jenell; Trent, Maria

2018-06-04

Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) is a common sexually transmitted infection (STI) but there are limited strategies to identify individuals at risk of MG. Previously a sex risk quiz was used to predict STIs including Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC), and/or Trichomonas vaginalis (TV). The original quiz categorized individuals ≤25 years old as at risk of STIs, but the Centers for Disease Control identifies females <25 years old as at risk of STIs. In this study, the quiz was changed to categorize females <25 years old as high risk. The objective was to determine if the age-modified risk quiz predicted MG infection. A cross-sectional analysis of a prospective longitudinal study was performed including female adolescents and young adults (AYA) evaluated in multiple outpatient clinics. Participants completed an age-modified risk quiz about sexual practices. Scores ranged from 0 to 10 and were categorized as low-risk (0-3), medium-risk (4-7), and high-risk (8-10) based upon the STI prevalence for each score. Vaginal and/or endocervical specimens were tested for MG, TV, CT, and GC using the Aptima Gen-Probe nucleic amplification test. There were 693 participants. Most participants reported having 0-1 sexual partners in the last 90 days (91%) and inconsistent condom use (84%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis controlling for race, education, and symptom status demonstrated that a medium-risk score predicted MG infection among AYA <25 years old (adjusted OR 2.56 [95% CI 1.06-6.18]). A risk quiz may be useful during clinical encounters to identify AYA at risk of MG.

Frequency and risk factors for malnutrition in children undergoing general anaesthesia in a French university hospital: A cross-sectional observational study.

PubMed

Gerbaud-Morlaes, Louis; Frison, Eric; Babre, Florence; De Luca, Arnaud; Didier, Anne; Borde, Maryline; Zaghet, Brigitte; Batoz, Hélène; Semjen, François; Nouette-Gaulain, Karine; Enaud, Raphael; Hankard, Régis; Lamireau, Thierry

2017-08-01

Malnutrition is often underdiagnosed in hospitalised children, although it is associated with postoperative complications, longer hospital lengths of stay and increased healthcare-related costs. We aimed to estimate the frequency of, and identify factors associated with, malnutrition in children undergoing anaesthesia. Cross-sectional observational study. Paediatric anaesthesia department at the University Children's Hospital, Bordeaux, France. A total of 985 patients aged less than 18 years. Anthropometric measurements, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification score and the Pediatric Nutritional Risk Score (PNRS) recorded at the pre-anaesthesia evaluation. When assessed as a Waterlow index less than 80%, malnutrition was present in 7.6% children. This increased to 8.1% of children assessed by clinical signs and to 11% of children when defined by a BMI less than the third percentile. In a univariate analysis, children with a BMI less than the third percentile were more often born prematurely (22.4 vs 10.4%; P = 0.0008), were small for gestational age at birth (18.4 vs 4.5%; P < 0.0001), were admitted from the emergency department (12.0 vs 5.6%; P = 0.02), had a high American Society of Anesthesiologists score (P < 0.0001), or had a high Pediatric Nutritional Risk Score (P < 0.0001). Presence (P = 0.01) and type (P = 0.002) of chronic disease were also associated with malnutrition. In the multivariate analysis, a premature birth, a lower birth weight and a higher Pediatric Nutritional Risk Score were significantly associated with a higher odds of malnutrition when defined by BMI. All children should be screened routinely for malnutrition or the risk of malnutrition at the pre-anaesthesia visit, allowing a programme of preoperative and/or postoperative nutritional support to be initiated. We suggest that as well as weight and height, BMI and a pediatric nutritional risk score such as PNRS should be recorded routinely at the pre-anaesthesia visit.

Meta-analysis of CHADS2 versus CHA2DS2-VASc for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation patients independent of anticoagulation.

PubMed

Zhu, Wen-Gen; Xiong, Qin-Mei; Hong, Kui

2015-02-01

Two validated scoring systems for predicting embolic risk, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, contribute to optimizing antithrombotic prescription practices in patients who have atrial fibrillation. However, data about anticoagulated patients are sparse. We compared CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, in terms of their predictive risk evaluation, in patients with atrial fibrillation who were and were not taking anticoagulants. We systematically searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Embase databases for studies of the comparative diagnostic performance of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. We identified 12 cohort studies for meta-analysis. With regard to the occurrence of cardiovascular events individually, patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 have a greater risk of stroke (risk ratio [RR]=5.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-6.88; P <0.00001) and thromboembolism (RR=5.96; 95% CI, 5.50-6.45; P <0.00001) (P diff=0.34) than do patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores <2, independent of anticoagulation therapy (RR=5.76; 95% CI, 5.23-6.35; P <0.00001 in anticoagulated patients; and RR=6.12; 95% CI, 5.40-6.93; P <0.00001 in patients not taking anticoagulants; P diff=0.45). The pooled RR estimates indicate an approximate 6-fold increase in the risk of endpoint events in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 (RR=5.90; 95% CI, 5.46-6.37; P <0.0001). These results clearly indicate the discriminative capacity of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke, thromboembolic events, or both, independent of optimal anticoagulation. The CHA2DS2-VASc score enables the identification of patients who are at genuinely high risk and can direct the selection of appropriate therapeutic approaches.

Predicting the need for institutional care shortly after admission to rehabilitation: Rasch analysis and predictive validity of the BRASS Index.

PubMed

Panella, L; La Porta, F; Caselli, S; Marchisio, S; Tennant, A

2012-09-01

Effective discharge planning is increasingly recognised as a critical component of hospital-based Rehabilitation. The BRASS index is a risk screening tool for identification, shortly after hospital admission, of patients who are at risk of post-discharge problems. To evaluate the internal construct validity and reliability of the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) within the rehabilitation setting. Observational prospective study. Rehabilitation ward of an Italian district hospital. One hundred and four consecutively admitted patients. Using classical psychometric methods and Rasch analysis (RA), the internal construct validity and reliability of the BRASS were examined. Also, external and predictive validity of the Rasch-modified BRASS (RMB) score were determined. Reliability of the original BRASS was low (Cronbach's alpha=0.595) and factor analyses showed that it was clearly multidimensional. A RA, based on a reduced 7-BRASS item set (RMB), satisfied model's expectations. Reliability was 0.777. The RMB scores strongly correlated with the original BRASS (rho=0.952; P<0.000) and with FIM™ admission scores (rho=-0.853; P<0.000). A RMB score of 12 was associated with an increased risk of nursing home admission (RR=2.1, 95%CI=1.7-2.5), whereas a score of 17 was associated to a higher risk of length of stay >28 days (RR=7.6, 95%CI=1.8-31.9). This study demonstrated that the original BRASS was multidimensional and unreliable. However, the RMB holds adequate internal construct validity and is sufficiently reliable as a predictor of discharge problems for group, but not individual use. The application of tools and methods (such as the BRASS Index) developed under the biomedical paradigm in a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine setting may have limitations. Further research is needed to develop, within the rehabilitation setting, a valid measuring tool of risk of post-discharge problems at the individual level.

Maternal and Child Characteristics Associated With Mother-Child Interaction in One-Year-Olds.

PubMed

Graff, J Carolyn; Bush, Andrew J; Palmer, Frederick B; Murphy, Laura E; Whitaker, Toni M; Tylavsky, Frances A

2017-08-01

Mothers' interactions with their young children have predicted later child development, behavior, and health, but evidence has been developed mainly in at-risk clinical samples. An economically and racially diverse sample of pregnant women who were not experiencing a high-risk pregnancy were recruited to participate in a community-based, longitudinal study of factors associated with child cognitive and social-emotional development during the first 3 years. The purpose of the present analysis was to identify associations between the characteristics of 1125 mothers and their 1-year-olds and the mothers' and children's scores on the Nursing Child Assessment Teaching Scale (NCATS). A multivariable approach was used to identify maternal and child characteristics associated with NCATS scores and to develop prediction models for NCATS total and subscale scores of mothers and children. Child expressive and receptive communication and maternal IQ, marital status, age, and insurance predicted NCATS Mother total score, accounting for 28% of the score variance. Child expressive communication and birth weight predicted the NCATS Child total score, accounting for 4% of variance. Child's expressive communication and mother's IQ and marital status predicted NCATS mother-child total scores. While these findings were similar to reports of NCATS scores in at-risk populations, no previous teams examined all of the mother and child characteristics included in this analysis. These findings support the utility of the NCATS for assessing mother-child interaction and predicting child outcomes in community-based, non-clinical populations. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

First-line endoscopic treatment with over-the-scope clips significantly improves the primary failure and rebleeding rates in high-risk gastrointestinal bleeding: A single-center experience with 100 cases.

PubMed

Richter-Schrag, Hans-Jürgen; Glatz, Torben; Walker, Christine; Fischer, Andreas; Thimme, Robert

2016-11-07

To evaluate rebleeding, primary failure (PF) and mortality of patients in whom over-the-scope clips (OTSCs) were used as first-line and second-line endoscopic treatment (FLET, SLET) of upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB, LGIB). A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database identified all patients with UGIB and LGIB in a tertiary endoscopic referral center of the University of Freiburg, Germany, from 04-2012 to 05-2016 ( n = 93) who underwent FLET and SLET with OTSCs. The complete Rockall risk scores were calculated from patients with UGIB. The scores were categorized as < or ≥ 7 and were compared with the original Rockall data. Differences between FLET and SLET were calculated. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to evaluate the factors that influenced rebleeding after OTSC placement. Primary hemostasis and clinical success of bleeding lesions (without rebleeding) was achieved in 88/100 (88%) and 78/100 (78%), respectively. PF was significantly lower when OTSCs were applied as FLET compared to SLET (4.9% vs 23%, P = 0.008). In multivariate analysis, patients who had OTSC placement as SLET had a significantly higher rebleeding risk compared to those who had FLET (OR 5.3; P = 0.008). Patients with Rockall risk scores ≥ 7 had a significantly higher in-hospital mortality compared to those with scores < 7 (35% vs 10%, P = 0.034). No significant differences were observed in patients with scores < or ≥ 7 in rebleeding and rebleeding-associated mortality. Our data show for the first time that FLET with OTSC might be the best predictor to successfully prevent rebleeding of gastrointestinal bleeding compared to SLET. The type of treatment determines the success of primary hemostasis or primary failure.

Performance of the disease risk score in a cohort study with policy-induced selection bias.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Mamdani, Muhammad M; Juurlink, David N; Krahn, Murray D; Lévesque, Linda E; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2015-11-01

To examine the performance of the disease risk score (DRS) in a cohort study with evidence of policy-induced selection bias. We examined two cohorts of new users of bisphosphonates. Estimates for 1-year hip fracture rates between agents using DRS, exposure propensity scores and traditional multivariable analysis were compared. The results for the cohort with no evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed little variation across analyses (-4.1-2.0%). Analysis of the cohort with evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed greater variation (-13.5-8.1%), with the greatest difference seen with DRS analyses. Our findings suggest that caution may be warranted when using DRS methods in cohort studies with policy-induced selection bias, further research is needed.

Validation of the Retinal Detachment after Open Globe Injury (RD-OGI) Score as an Effective Tool for Predicting Retinal Detachment.

PubMed

Brodowska, Katarzyna; Stryjewski, Tomasz P; Papavasileiou, Evangelia; Chee, Yewlin E; Eliott, Dean

2017-05-01

The Retinal Detachment after Open Globe Injury (RD-OGI) Score is a clinical prediction model that was developed at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary to predict the risk of retinal detachment (RD) after open globe injury (OGI). This study sought to validate the RD-OGI Score in an independent cohort of patients. Retrospective cohort study. The predictive value of the RD-OGI Score was evaluated by comparing the original RD-OGI Scores of 893 eyes with OGI that presented between 1999 and 2011 (the derivation cohort) with 184 eyes with OGI that presented from January 1, 2012, to January 31, 2014 (the validation cohort). Three risk classes (low, moderate, and high) were created and logistic regression was undertaken to evaluate the optimal predictive value of the RD-OGI Score. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis evaluated survival experience between the risk classes. Time to RD. At 1 year after OGI, 255 eyes (29%) in the derivation cohort and 66 eyes (36%) in the validation cohort were diagnosed with an RD. At 1 year, the low risk class (RD-OGI Scores 0-2) had a 3% detachment rate in the derivation cohort and a 0% detachment rate in the validation cohort, the moderate risk class (RD-OGI Scores 2.5-4.5) had a 29% detachment rate in the derivation cohort and a 35% detachment rate in the validation cohort, and the high risk class (RD-OGI scores 5-7.5) had a 73% detachment rate in the derivation cohort and an 86% detachment rate in the validation cohort. Regression modeling revealed the RD-OGI to be highly discriminative, especially 30 days after injury, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.939 in the validation cohort. Survival experience was significantly different depending upon the risk class (P < 0.0001, log-rank chi-square). The RD-OGI Score can reliably predict the future risk of developing an RD based on clinical variables that are present at the time of the initial evaluation after OGI. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Middle-Age and Geriatric Trauma Mortality Risk Score A Tool to Guide Palliative Care Consultations.

PubMed

Konda, Sanjit R; Seymour, Rachel; Manoli, Arthur; Gales, Jordan; Karunakar, Madhav A

2016-11-01

This study aimed to develop a tool to quantify risk of inpatient mortality among geriatric and middleaged trauma patients. This study sought to demonstrate the ability of the novel risk score in the early identification of high risk trauma patients for resource-sparing interventions, including referral to palliative medicine. This retrospective cohort study utilized data from a single level 1 trauma center. Regression analysis was used to create a novel risk of inpatient mortality score. A total of 2,387 low energy and 1,201 high-energy middle-aged (range: 55 to 64 years of age) and geriatric (65 years of age or odler) trauma patients comprised the study cohort. Model validation was performed using 37,474 lowenergy and 97,034 high-energy patients from the National Trauma Databank (NTDB). Potential hospital cost reduction was calculated for early referral of high risk trauma patients to palliative medicine services in comparison to no palliative medicine referral. Factors predictive of inpatient mortality among the study and validation patient cohorts included; age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head and neck and chest. Within the validation cohort, the novel mortality risk score demonstrated greater predictive capacity than existing trauma scores [STTGMALE-AUROC: 0.83 vs. TRISS 0.80, (p < 0.01), STTGMAHE-AUROC: 0.86 vs. TRISS 0.85, (p < 0.01)]. Our model demonstrated early palliative medicine evaluation could produce $1,083,082 in net hospital savings per year. This novel risk score for older trauma patients has shown fidelity in prediction of inpatient mortality; in the study and validation cohorts. This tool may be used for early intervention in the care of patients at high risk of mortality and resource expenditure.

[Association between risk factors of cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis in postmenopausal Chinese women].

PubMed

Xue, Wen-qiong; Deng, Juan; Li, Jing-jing; Liu, Jing; He, Li-ping; Chen, Zong-qiu; Chen, Yu-ming

2011-06-01

To assess the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and osteoporosis. 2202 women aged 50 - 73 years were included in this cross-sectional study from the communities in Guangzhou, from July 2008 to January 2010. Cardiovascular risk factors including age, years since menopause, physical activity, anthropometrics, body composition, blood pressure, fasting serum lipids, glucose and uric acid, intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid artery were assessed. Ultrasonic bone density (speed of sound) at the radius and tibia were determined. Osteoporosis was defined as T-score ≤ -2.5. Common factors for the cardiovascular risk factors were extracted using the factor analysis method. Eight common factors representing obesity, lean mass, blood triglycerides and uric acid, cholesterol, age, blood pressure, IMT and physical activity were extracted. Data from the Multivariate logistic regression showed a dose-dependent association of greater scores of age and IMT factors and lower score of lean mass factor with the increased risk of osteoporosis at the radius and tibia. As compared with the bottom quartile, the OR (95%CI) of radius and tibia osteoporosis were 0.62 (0.44 - 0.88) and 0.62 (0.48 - 0.80) for lean mass factor, 4.02 (2.72 - 5.94) and 3.68 (2.81 - 4.82) for age factor, 1.41 (1.00 - 2.00) and 1.54 (1.19 - 2.00) for IMT factors, respectively. Moreover, greater blood pressure score was associated with higher risk of radius osteoporosis while the higher obese score, was correlated with the increased risk of tibia osteoporosis. The cardiovascular-related risk factors of greater IMT, obesity, blood pressure and lower lean mass scores were associated with increased osteoporosis risks while called for more concern among the Chinese women.

Association between the COMT Val158Met polymorphism and fibromyalgia susceptibility and fibromyalgia impact questionnaire score: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Young Ho; Kim, Jae-Hoon; Song, Gwan Gyu

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore whether the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) Val158Met polymorphism is associated with susceptibility to fibromyalgia and fibromyalgia impact questionnaire (FIQ) score in fibromyalgia patients. We conducted a meta-analysis of the associations of the COMT Val158Met polymorphism with fibromyalgia risk as well as FIQ score in fibromyalgia patients. A total of 993 fibromyalgia patients and 778 controls from 10 studies on the COMT Val158Met polymorphism and 538 fibromyalgia patients from 5 studies on the COMT Val158Met polymorphism and FIQ score were included in this meta-analysis. The meta-analysis revealed an association between fibromyalgia and the COMT Met/Met + Val/Met genotype in all study subjects (odds ratio (OR) 1.635, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.029-2.597, p = 0.037). However, stratification by ethnicity indicated no association between the Met/Met + Val/Met genotype and fibromyalgia in the European and Turkish populations (OR 1.202, 95 % CI 0.876-1.649, p = 0.255; OR 2.132, 95 % CI 0.764-5.949, p = 0.148, respectively). Analysis using other genetic models showed no association between the COMT Val158Met polymorphism and fibromyalgia. The meta-analysis also revealed that the FIQ score was significantly higher in individuals with the COMT Met/Met genotype than in those with the Val/Val genotype [weighted mean difference (WMD) = 14.39, 95 % CI 3.316-25.48, p = 0.011] and the Val/Met genotype (WMD = 5.108, 95 % CI 2.212-4.891, p = 0.021). This meta-analysis identified an association between fibromyalgia risk and the COMT Val158Met polymorphism as well as the FIQ score in fibromyalgia patients.

Reader performance in visual assessment of breast density using visual analogue scales: Are some readers more predictive of breast cancer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayner, Millicent; Harkness, Elaine F.; Foden, Philip; Wilson, Mary; Gadde, Soujanya; Beetles, Ursula; Lim, Yit Y.; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sally; Barr, Nicky; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Maxwell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2018-03-01

Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer, and is used in risk prediction and for deciding appropriate imaging strategies. In the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study, percent density estimated by two readers on Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) has shown a strong relationship with breast cancer risk when assessed against automated methods. However, this method suffers from reader variability. This study aimed to assess the performance of PROCAS readers using VAS, and to identify those most predictive of breast cancer. We selected the seven readers who had estimated density on over 6,500 women including at least 100 cancer cases, analysing their performance using multivariable logistic regression and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis. All seven readers showed statistically significant odds ratios (OR) for cancer risk according to VAS score after adjusting for classical risk factors. The OR was greatest for reader 18 at 1.026 (95% Cl 1.018-1.034). Adjusted Area Under the ROC Curves (AUCs) were statistically significant for all readers, but greatest for reader 14 at 0.639. Further analysis of the VAS scores for these two readers showed reader 14 had higher sensitivity (78.0% versus 42.2%), whereas reader 18 had higher specificity (78.0% versus 46.0%). Our results demonstrate individual differences when assigning VAS scores; one better identified those with increased risk, whereas another better identified low risk individuals. However, despite their different strengths, both readers showed similar predictive abilities overall. Standardised training for VAS may improve reader variability and consistency of VAS scoring.

Socio-economic status and cardiovascular risk factors in rural and urban areas of Vellore, Tamilnadu, South India.

PubMed

Samuel, Prasanna; Antonisamy, Belavendra; Raghupathy, Palani; Richard, Joseph; Fall, Caroline H D

2012-10-01

We examined associations between socio-economic status (SES) indicators and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among urban and rural South Indians. Data from a population-based birth cohort of 2218 men and women aged 26-32 years from Vellore, Tamilnadu were used. SES indicators included a household possessions score, attained education and paternal education. CVD risk factors included obesity, hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance or diabetes, plasma total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio and triglyceride levels and consumption of tobacco and alcohol. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations between SES indicators and risk factors. Most risk factors were positively associated with possessions score in urban and rural men and women, except for tobacco use, which was negatively associated. Trends were similar with the participants' own education and paternal education, though weaker and less consistent. In a concurrent analysis of all the three SES indicators, adjusted for gender and urban/rural residence, independent associations were observed only for the possessions score. Compared with those in the lowest fifth of the score, participants in the highest fifth had a higher risk of abdominal obesity [odds ratio (OR) =6.4, 95% CI 3.4-11.6], high total cholesterol to HDL ratio (OR=2.4, 95% CI 1.6-3.5) and glucose intolerance (OR=2.8, 95% CI 1.9-4.1). Their tobacco use (OR=0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.6) was lower. Except for hypertension and glucose intolerance, risk factors were higher in urban than rural participants independently of SES. In this young cohort of rural and urban south Indians, higher SES was associated with a more adverse CVD risk factor profile but lower tobacco use.

Score of liver ultrasonography predicts treatment-related severe neutropenia and neutropenic fever in induction chemotherapy with docetaxel for locally advanced head and neck cancer patients with normal serum transamines.

PubMed

Wang, Ting-Yao; Chen, Wei-Ming; Yang, Lan-Yan; Chen, Chao-Yu; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Yi-Yang; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Lee, Kuan-Der; Lu, Chang-Hsien

2016-11-01

Induction chemotherapy with docetaxel improved outcome in advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients, but docetaxel was not recommended in liver dysfunction patients for treatment toxicities. Severe neutropenic events (SNE) including severe neutropenia (SN) and febrile neutropenia (FN) still developed in these patients with normal serum transaminases. Ultrasonography (US) fibrotic score represented degree of hepatic parenchymal damage and showed good correlation to fibrotic changes histologically. This study aims to evaluate the association of US fibrotic score with docetaxel treatment-related SNE in advanced HNSCC patients with normal serum transaminases. Between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2013, a total of 47 advanced HNSCC patients treated with induction docetaxel were enrolled. The clinical features were collected to assess predictive factors for SNE. The patients were divided into two groups by the US fibrotic score with a cutoff value of 7. The Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression method were used for the risk factor analysis. The background, treatment, and response were similar in both groups except for lower lymphocyte and platelet count in patients with higher US score. Twenty-seven patients (51 %) developed grade 3/4 neutropenia, and more SNE developed in patients with US score ≧7. In multivariate analysis, only US score ≥7 was independent predictive factor for developing SN (hazard ratio 7.71, p = 0.043) and FN (hazard ratio 20.95, p = 0.008). US score ≥7 is an independent risk factor for SNE in advanced HNSCC patients treated with induction docetaxel. US score could be used for risk prediction of docetaxel-related SNE.

Assessment of the carotid artery intima-media complex through ultrasonography and the relationship with Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth.

PubMed

Ramos, Thacira D A; Dantas, Tatianne M E; Simões, Mônica O S; Carvalho, Danielle F; Medeiros, Carla C M

2016-10-01

To evaluate the presence of carotid thickening and its relationship with the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth score. We carried out a cross-sectional study involving 512 brazilian adolescents. Variables such as sex, body mass index, concentrations of non-high-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin A1c levels that make up the score, and carotid thickening through the intima-media complex measured by ultrasound were evaluated. We adopted two cut-off points to evaluate carotid thickening, being considered altered for those higher or equal to the z-score 2+ and ⩾75th percentile. The association was assessed using the χ2 test and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. High cardiovascular risk was present in 10.2% of the adolescents; carotid thickness was present in 4.3% determined by the z-score 2+ and in 25.0% determined by the 75th percentile. When measured by the z-score, carotid thickening was associated with high systolic blood pressure (p=0.024), high-non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (p=0.039), and high cardiovascular risk assessed by the score and by the 75th percentile, with body mass index >30 (p=0.005). In the multivariate analysis, high cardiovascular risk was found to be independently associated with the presence of carotid thickness evaluated by the z-score, with risk four times greater (p=0.010) of presenting with this condition compared with individuals with low risk, and this fact was not observed when factors were analysed alone. The presence of high cardiovascular risk in adolescents assessed by the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth score was associated with marked thickening of the carotid artery in healthy adolescents.

Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

PubMed Central

Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Liver Transplantation in the Era of MELD-Based Liver Allocation: A Multivariate Analysis

PubMed Central

Schultze, Daniel; Hillebrand, Norbert; Hinz, Ulf; Büchler, Markus W.; Schemmer, Peter

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. While waiting list mortality can be predicted by the MELD-score, reliable scoring systems for the postoperative period do not exist. This study's objective was to identify risk factors that contribute to postoperative mortality. Methods Between December 2006 and March 2011, 429 patients underwent liver transplantation in our department. Risk factors for postoperative mortality in 266 consecutive liver transplantations were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Patients who were <18 years, HU-listings, and split-, living related, combined or re-transplantations were excluded from the analysis. The correlation between number of risk factors and mortality was analyzed. Results A labMELD ≥20, female sex, coronary heart disease, donor risk index >1.5 and donor Na+>145 mmol/L were identified to be independent predictive factors for postoperative mortality. With increasing number of these risk-factors, postoperative 90-day and 1-year mortality increased (0–1: 0 and 0%; 2: 2.9 and 17.4%; 3: 5.6 and 16.8%; 4: 22.2 and 33.3%; 5–6: 60.9 and 66.2%). Conclusions In this analysis, a simple score was derived that adequately identified patients at risk after liver transplantation. Opening a discussion on the inclusion of these parameters in the process of organ allocation may be a worthwhile venture. PMID:24905210

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Piazza, Nicolo; Wenaweser, Peter; van Gameren, Menno; Pilgrim, Thomas; Tzikas, Apostolos; Tsikas, Apostolos; Otten, Amber; Nuis, Rutger; Onuma, Yoshinobu; Cheng, Jin Ming; Kappetein, A Pieter; Boersma, Eric; Juni, Peter; de Jaegere, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Serruys, Patrick W

2010-02-01

Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or "inoperable" patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% +/- 13.9% vs STS 6.7% +/- 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES > or =15%, 16% had an STS > or =10%, and 40% had an LES > or =20% or STS > or =10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Propensity Score Analysis Comparing Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy With Thoracotomy: A French Nationwide Study.

PubMed

Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Delpy, Jean-Philippe; Orsini, Bastien; Gossot, Dominique; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy has recently become the recommended approach for stage I non-small cell lung cancer. However, these guidelines are not based on any large randomized control trial. Our study used propensity scores and a sensitivity analysis to compare VATS lobectomy with open thoracotomy. From 2005 to 2012, 24,811 patients (95.1%) were operated on by open thoracotomy and 1,278 (4.9%) by VATS. The end points were 30-day postoperative death, postoperative complications, hospital stay, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Two propensity scores analyses were performed: matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting, and one sensitivity analysis to unmask potential hidden bias. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare "high-risk" with "low-risk" patients. Results are reported by odds ratios or hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Postoperative death was not significantly reduced by VATS whatever the analysis. Concerning postoperative complications, VATS significantly decreased the occurrence of atelectasis and pneumopathy with both analysis methods, but there were no differences in the occurrence of other postoperative complications. VATS did not provide a benefit for high-risk patients. The VATS approach decreased the hospital length of stay from 2.4 days (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to -3 days) to -4.68 days (95% confidence interval, -8.5 to 0.9 days). Overall survival and disease-free survival were not influenced by the surgical approach. The sensitivity analysis showed potential biases. The results must be interpreted carefully because of the differences observed according to the propensity scores method used. A multicenter randomized controlled trial is necessary to limit the biases. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is the HAS-BLED score useful in predicting post-extraction bleeding in patients taking warfarin? A retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Kataoka, Toshiyuki; Hoshi, Keika; Ando, Tomohiro

2016-01-01

Objective Unexpected post-extraction bleeding is often experienced in clinical practice. Therefore, determining the risk of post-extraction bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulant therapy prior to surgery is beneficial. This study aimed to verify whether the HAS-BLED score was useful in predicting post-extraction bleeding in patients taking warfarin. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Tokyo Women's Medical University. Participants Participants included 258 sequential cases (462 teeth) who had undergone tooth extraction between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2012 while continuing warfarin therapy. Main outcome measure Post-extraction risk factors for bleeding. The following data were collected as the predicting variables for multivariate logistic analysis: the HAS-BLED score, extraction site, tooth type, stability of teeth, extraction procedure, prothrombin time-international normalised ratio value, platelet count and the use of concomitant antiplatelet agents. Results Post-extraction bleeding was noted in 21 (8.1%) of the 258 cases. Haemostasis was achieved with localised haemostatic procedures in all the cases of post-extraction bleeding. The HAS-BLED score was found to be insufficient in predicting post-extraction bleeding (area under the curve=0.548, p=0.867, multivariate analysis). The risk of post-extraction bleeding was approximately three times greater in patients taking concomitant oral antiplatelet agents (risk ratio=2.881, p=0.035, multivariate analysis). Conclusions The HAS-BLED score alone could not predict post-extraction bleeding. The concomitant use of oral antiplatelet agents was a risk factor for post-extraction bleeding. No episodes of post-extraction bleeding required more than local measures for haemostasis. However, because this was a retrospective study conducted at a single institution, large-scale prospective cohort studies, which include cases of outpatient tooth extraction, will be necessary in the future. PMID:26936909

Tumor Microenvironment of Metastasis and Risk of Distant Metastasis of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D’Alfonso, Timothy M.; Ginter, Paula S.; Oktay, Maja H.; Robinson, Brian D.; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B.; Glass, Andrew G.; Sparano, Joseph A.; Condeelis, John S.; Jones, Joan G.

2014-01-01

Background Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. Methods We conducted a case–control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)+/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)− tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2+ subgroups. Conclusions TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER+/HER2− breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. PMID:24895374

Tumor microenvironment of metastasis and risk of distant metastasis of breast cancer.

PubMed

Rohan, Thomas E; Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D'Alfonso, Timothy M; Ginter, Paula S; Oktay, Maja H; Robinson, Brian D; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B; Glass, Andrew G; Sparano, Joseph A; Condeelis, John S; Jones, Joan G

2014-08-01

Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. We conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)(+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)(-) tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2(+) subgroups. TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER(+)/HER2(-) breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting mortality after congenital heart surgeries: evaluation of the Aristotle and Risk Adjustement in Congenital Heart Surgery-1 risk prediction scoring systems: a retrospective single center analysis of 1150 patients.

PubMed

Joshi, Shreedhar S; Anthony, G; Manasa, D; Ashwini, T; Jagadeesh, A M; Borde, Deepak P; Bhat, Seetharam; Manjunath, C N

2014-01-01

To validate Aristotle basic complexity and Aristotle comprehensive complexity (ABC and ACC) and risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery-1 (RACHS-1) prediction models for in hospital mortality after surgery for congenital heart disease in a single surgical unit. Patients younger than 18 years, who had undergone surgery for congenital heart diseases from July 2007 to July 2013 were enrolled. Scoring for ABC and ACC scoring and assigning to RACHS-1 categories were done retrospectively from retrieved case files. Discriminative power of scoring systems was assessed with area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating curves (ROC). Calibration (test for goodness of fit of the model) was measured with Hosmer-Lemeshow modification of χ2 test. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to assess reclassification. A total of 1150 cases were assessed with an all-cause in-hospital mortality rate of 7.91%. When modeled for multivariate regression analysis, the ABC (χ2 = 8.24, P = 0.08), ACC (χ2 = 4.17 , P = 0.57) and RACHS-1 (χ2 = 2.13 , P = 0.14) scores showed good overall performance. The AUC was 0.677 with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.61-0.73 for ABC score, 0.704 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76) for ACC score and for RACHS-1 it was 0.607 (95%CI: 0.55-0.66). ACC had an improved predictability in comparison to RACHS-1 and ABC on analysis with NRI and IDI. ACC predicted mortality better than ABC and RCAHS-1 models. A national database will help in developing predictive models unique to our populations, till then, ACC scoring model can be used to analyze individual performances and compare with other institutes.

Adherence to Mediterranean diet in relation to bone mineral density and risk of fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Malmir, Hanieh; Saneei, Parvane; Larijani, Bagher; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad

2017-06-21

We aimed to systematically review available data on the association between adherence to MD and BMD as well as risk of fractures and to summarize this information through a meta-analysis. Previous studies in the field of adherence to MD in relation to BMD and risk of fracture were selected through searching PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science and Google Scholar databases prior to June, 2016 using Mesh and non-Mesh relevant keywords. In the meta-analysis of four effect sizes, obtained from three studies, we found that adherence to MD was associated with a 21% reduced risk of hip fracture (overall RR 0.79; 95% CIs 0.72-0.87). Adherence to MD was positively associated with lumber spine ' s (mean difference of BMD comparing highest and lowest categories of MD score 0.12; 95% CI 0.06-0.19 g/cm 2 ), femoral neck (0.10; 0.06-0.15 g/cm 2 ) and total hip (0.11; 0.09-0.14 g/cm 2 ) BMD. Meta-regression of included observational studies revealed a significant inverse linear association between Mediterranean diet score and risk of hip fracture, such that one unit increase in the score of Mediterranean diet was associated with a reduction in the risk of hip fracture (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98 p = 0.01). Adherence to MD was associated with a reduced risk of fracture as well as with a higher mean BMD.

Analysis of Risk Factors for Postoperative Morbidity in Perforated Peptic Ulcer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae-Myung; Jeong, Sang-Ho; Park, Soon-Tae; Choi, Sang-Kyung; Hong, Soon-Chan; Jung, Eun-Jung; Ju, Young-Tae; Jeong, Chi-Young; Ha, Woo-Song

2012-01-01

Purpose Emergency operations for perforated peptic ulcer are associated with a high incidence of postoperative complications. While several studies have investigated the impact of perioperative risk factors and underlying diseases on the postoperative morbidity after abdominal surgery, only a few have analyzed their role in perforated peptic ulcer disease. The purpose of this study was to determine any possible associations between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease or perioperative risk factors in perforated peptic ulcer. Materials and Methods In total, 142 consecutive patients, who underwent surgery for perforated peptic ulcer, at a single institution, between January 2005 and October 2010 were included in this study. The clinical data concerning the patient characteristics, operative methods, and complications were collected retrospectively. Results The postoperative morbidity rate associated with perforated peptic ulcer operations was 36.6% (52/142). Univariate analysis revealed that a long operating time, the open surgical method, age (≥60), sex (female), high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and presence of preoperative shock were significant perioperative risk factors for postoperative morbidity. Significant comorbid risk factors included hypertension, diabetes mellitus and pulmonary disease. Multivariate analysis revealed a long operating time, the open surgical method, high ASA score and the presence of preoperative shock were all independent risk factors for the postoperative morbidity in perforated peptic ulcer. Conclusions A high ASA score, preoperative shock, open surgery and long operating time of more than 150 minutes are high risk factors for morbidity. However, there is no association between postoperative morbidity and comorbid disease in patients with a perforated peptic ulcer. PMID:22500261

Risk Driven Outcome-Based Command and Control (C2) Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-01-01

shaping the risk ranking scores into more interpretable and statistically sound risk measures. Regression analysis was applied to determine what...Architecture Framework Implementation, AFCEA Coursebook 503J, February 8-11, 2000, San Diego, California. [Morgan and Henrion, 1990] M. Granger Morgan and

A new prognostic score for elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with R-CHOP: the prognostic role of blood monocyte and lymphocyte counts is absent.

PubMed

Procházka, Vít; Pytlík, Robert; Janíková, Andrea; Belada, David; Sálek, David; Papajík, Tomáš; Campr, Vít; Fürst, Tomáš; Furstova, Jana; Trněný, Marek

2014-01-01

Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and absolute monocyte count (AMC) have been documented as independent predictors of survival in patients with newly diagnosed Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL). Analysis of the prognostic impact of ALC and AMC in the context of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and other significant variables in elderly population treated in the R-CHOP regime has not been carried out yet. In this retrospective study, a cohort of 443 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients with age ≥ 60 was analyzed. All patients were treated with the R-CHOP therapy. An extensive statistical analysis was performed to identify risk factors of 3-year overall survival (OS). In multivariate analysis, only three predictors proved significant: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG), age and bulky disease presence. These predictors were dichotomized (ECOG ≥ 1, age ≥ 70, bulk ≥ 7.5) to create a novel four-level score. This score predicted 3-year OS of 94.0%, 77.4%, 62.7% and 35.4% in the low-, low-intermediate, high-intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001). Further, a three-level score was tested which stratifies the population better (3-year OS: 91.9%, 67.2%, 36.2% in the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively) but is more difficult to interpret. Both the 3- and 4-level scores were compared to standard scoring systems and, in our population, were shown to be superior in terms of patients risk stratification with respect to 3-year OS prediction. The results were successfully validated on an independent cohort of 162 patients of similar group characteristics. The prognostic role of baseline ALC, AMC or their ratio (LMR) was not confirmed in the multivariate context in elderly population with DLBCL treated with R-CHOP. The newly proposed age-specific index stratifies the elderly population into risk groups more precisely than the conventional IPI and its existing variants.

[Carotid intima-media thickness distribution according to the stratification of cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham-REGICOR and score function charts].

PubMed

Hermida-Ameijeiras, Á; López-Paz, J E; Riveiro-Cruz, M A; Calvo-Gómez, C

2016-01-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has been suggested as a further tool for risk function charts. The aim of this study was to describethe relationship between cIMT and cardiovascular risk (CVR) estimation according to Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE equations. Observational, cross-sectional cohort study from 362 hypertensive subjects. Demographic and clinical information were collected as well as laboratory, ultrasonographic and CVR estimation by the Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE functions. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software (version 20,0). To analyze the data, statistical tests such as Chi-square, T-test, ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. According to both functions, differences on mean cIMT were found between low CVR group and intermediate to high groups. No differences were found between intermediate and high risk groups (cIMT: 0,73mm low risk patients vs. 0,89 or 0,88mm respectively according to SCORE function and cIMT: 0,73 vs. 0,85 or 0,87mm respectively according to Framingham-REGICOR function). cIMT correlated positively with CVR estimation according to both SCORE (r=0,421; P<.01), and Framingham-REGICOR functions (r=0,363; P<.01). cIMT correlates positively with CVR estimated by SCORE and Framingham-REGICOR functions. cIMT in those subjects at intermediate risk is similar to those at high risk. Our findings highlight the importance of carotid ultrasound in identifying silent target-organ damage in those patients at intermediate CVR. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

PubMed

Flueckiger, Peter; Longstreth, Will; Herrington, David; Yeboah, Joseph

2018-02-01

Limited data exist on the performance of the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score (R-FSRS) and the R-FSRS in conjunction with nontraditional risk markers. We compared the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and the Pooled Cohort Equation for stroke prediction and assessed the improvement in discrimination by nontraditional risk markers. Six thousand seven hundred twelve of 6814 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included. Cox proportional hazard, area under the curve, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination increment analysis were used to assess and compare each stroke prediction risk score. Stroke was defined as fatal/nonfatal strokes (hemorrhagic or ischemic). After mean follow-up of 10.7 years, 231 of 6712 (3.4%) strokes were adjudicated (2.7% ischemic strokes). Mean stroke risks using the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and Pooled Cohort Equation were 4.7%, 5.9%, and 13.5%. The R-FSRS had the best calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, χ 2 =6.55; P =0.59). All risk scores were predictive of incident stroke. C statistics of R-FSRS (0.716) was similar to Pooled Cohort Equation (0.716), but significantly higher than the original FSRS (0.653; P =0.01 for comparison with R-FSRS). Adding nontraditional risk markers individually to the R-FSRS did not improve discrimination of the R-FSRS in the area under the curve analysis, but did improve category-less net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination increment for incident stroke. The addition of coronary artery calcium to R-FSRS produced the highest category-less net reclassification improvement (0.36) and integrated discrimination increment (0.0027). Similar results were obtained when ischemic strokes were used as the outcome. The R-FSRS downgraded stroke risk but had better calibration and discriminative ability for incident stroke compared with the original FSRS. Nontraditional risk markers modestly improved the discriminative ability of the R-FSRS, with coronary artery calcium performing the best. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Development and validation of the San Diego Early Test Score to predict acute and early HIV infection risk in men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Hoenigl, Martin; Weibel, Nadir; Mehta, Sanjay R; Anderson, Christy M; Jenks, Jeffrey; Green, Nella; Gianella, Sara; Smith, Davey M; Little, Susan J

2015-08-01

Although men who have sex with men (MSM) represent a dominant risk group for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the risk of HIV infection within this population is not uniform. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a score to estimate incident HIV infection risk. Adult MSM who were tested for acute and early HIV (AEH) between 2008 and 2014 were retrospectively randomized 2:1 to a derivation and validation dataset, respectively. Using the derivation dataset, each predictor associated with an AEH outcome in the multivariate prediction model was assigned a point value that corresponded to its odds ratio. The score was validated on the validation dataset using C-statistics. Data collected at a single HIV testing encounter from 8326 unique MSM were analyzed, including 200 with AEH (2.4%). Four risk behavior variables were significantly associated with an AEH diagnosis (ie, incident infection) in multivariable analysis and were used to derive the San Diego Early Test (SDET) score: condomless receptive anal intercourse (CRAI) with an HIV-positive MSM (3 points), the combination of CRAI plus ≥5 male partners (3 points), ≥10 male partners (2 points), and diagnosis of bacterial sexually transmitted infection (2 points)-all as reported for the prior 12 months. The C-statistic for this risk score was >0.7 in both data sets. The SDET risk score may help to prioritize resources and target interventions, such as preexposure prophylaxis, to MSM at greatest risk of acquiring HIV infection. The SDET risk score is deployed as a freely available tool at http://sdet.ucsd.edu. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

MELD score measured day 10 after orthotopic liver transplantation predicts death and re-transplantation within the first year.

PubMed

Rostved, Andreas A; Lundgren, Jens D; Hillingsø, Jens; Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Rasmussen, Allan

2016-11-01

The impact of early allograft dysfunction on the outcome after liver transplantation is yet to be established. We explored the independent predictive value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score measured in the post-transplant period on the risk of mortality or re-transplantation. Retrospective cohort study on adults undergoing orthotopic deceased donor liver transplantation from 2004 to 2014. The MELD score was determined prior to transplantation and daily until 21 days after. The risk of mortality or re-transplantation within the first year was assessed according to quartiles of MELD using unadjusted and adjusted stepwise Cox regression analysis. We included 374 consecutive liver transplant recipients of whom 60 patients died or were re-transplanted. The pre-transplant MELD score was comparable between patients with good and poor outcome, but from day 1 the MELD score significantly diversified and was higher in the poor outcome group (MELD score quartile 4 versus quartile 1-3 at day 10: HR 5.1, 95% CI: 2.8-9.0). This association remained after adjustment for non-identical blood type, autoimmune liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (adjusted HR 5.3, 95% CI: 2.9-9.5 for MELD scores at day 10). The post-transplant MELD score was not associated with pre-transplant MELD score or the Eurotransplant donor risk index. Early determination of the MELD score as an indicator of early allograft dysfunction after liver transplantation was a strong independent predictor of mortality or re-transplantation and was not influenced by the quality of the donor, or preoperative recipient risk factors.

Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

PubMed Central

Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

2017-01-01

Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element canmore » be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

The Zhongshan score: a novel and simple anatomic classification system to predict perioperative outcomes of nephron-sparing surgery.

PubMed

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-02-01

In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P < 0.05). For ZS score, patients with moderate and high scores had longer warm ischemia time (WIT) and greater increase in SCr compared with low score (all P < 0.05). What is more, the differences between moderate and high scores classified by ZS score were borderline but trending toward significance in WIT (P = 0.064) and increase in SCr (P = 0.052). Interestingly, RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). As for RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). Patients with a high or moderate score of PADUA had 2.3-fold or 2.8-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analysis, ZS score had the greatest AUC for surgical complications (AUC = 0.632) and the conversion to radical nephrectomy (AUC = 0.845) (all P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ability of ZS score to predict the surgical complexity and surgical complications of NSS is better than RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS.

The Zhongshan Score

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-01-01

Abstract In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P < 0.05). For ZS score, patients with moderate and high scores had longer warm ischemia time (WIT) and greater increase in SCr compared with low score (all P < 0.05). What is more, the differences between moderate and high scores classified by ZS score were borderline but trending toward significance in WIT (P = 0.064) and increase in SCr (P = 0.052). Interestingly, RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). As for RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). Patients with a high or moderate score of PADUA had 2.3-fold or 2.8-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analysis, ZS score had the greatest AUC for surgical complications (AUC = 0.632) and the conversion to radical nephrectomy (AUC = 0.845) (all P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ability of ZS score to predict the surgical complexity and surgical complications of NSS is better than RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS. PMID:25654399

A New Method to Assess Asymmetry in Fingerprints Could Be Used as an Early Indicator of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Morris, Molly R.; Ludwar, Bjoern Ch.; Swingle, Evan; Mamo, Mahelet N.; Shubrook, Jay H.

2016-01-01

Background: Inexpensive screening tools are needed to identify individuals predisposed to developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Such early identification coupled with an effective intervention could help many people avoid the substantial health costs of this disease. We investigated the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in fingerprints is an indicator of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: Participants with T2DM, with T1DM, and without any indication or known family history of diabetes were fingerprinted with a Crossmatch Verifier 320 LC scanner. Asymmetry scores for each finger pair were assessed using both pattern analysis (ridge counts), and a wavelet-based analysis. Results: Both methods for scoring asymmetry predicted risk of T2DM for finger pair IV, controlling for gender and age. AUC scores were significantly greater than the null for pattern asymmetry scores (finger IV AUC = 0.74), and wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.73) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.73), for predicting T2DM. In addition, wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.80) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.85) significantly predicted risk of T1DM. Conclusions: A diagnostic tool based on FA in the fingerprints of finger pair IV, measured using a wavelet analysis could be developed for predicting risk prior to associated health problems for both T2DM and T1DM. In addition, given that that the prints for fingers IV and V develop during the 14-17 weeks of gestation, we predict that interventions during this time period of pregnancy will be most successful. PMID:26830490

A New Method to Assess Asymmetry in Fingerprints Could Be Used as an Early Indicator of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Morris, Molly R; Ludwar, Bjoern Ch; Swingle, Evan; Mamo, Mahelet N; Shubrook, Jay H

2016-07-01

Inexpensive screening tools are needed to identify individuals predisposed to developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Such early identification coupled with an effective intervention could help many people avoid the substantial health costs of this disease. We investigated the hypothesis that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in fingerprints is an indicator of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Participants with T2DM, with T1DM, and without any indication or known family history of diabetes were fingerprinted with a Crossmatch Verifier 320 LC scanner. Asymmetry scores for each finger pair were assessed using both pattern analysis (ridge counts), and a wavelet-based analysis. Both methods for scoring asymmetry predicted risk of T2DM for finger pair IV, controlling for gender and age. AUC scores were significantly greater than the null for pattern asymmetry scores (finger IV AUC = 0.74), and wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.73) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.73), for predicting T2DM. In addition, wavelet asymmetry scores for finger pair IV (AUC = 0.80) and finger pair V (AUC = 0.85) significantly predicted risk of T1DM. A diagnostic tool based on FA in the fingerprints of finger pair IV, measured using a wavelet analysis could be developed for predicting risk prior to associated health problems for both T2DM and T1DM. In addition, given that that the prints for fingers IV and V develop during the 14-17 weeks of gestation, we predict that interventions during this time period of pregnancy will be most successful. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

Neurointerventional Treatment in Acute Stroke. Whom to Treat? (Endovascular Treatment for Acute Stroke: Utility of THRIVE Score and HIAT Score for Patient Selection)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fjetland, Lars, E-mail: lars.fjetland@lyse.net; Roy, Sumit, E-mail: sumit.roy@sus.no; Kurz, Kathinka D., E-mail: kathinka.dehli.kurz@sus.no

2013-10-15

Purpose: Intra-arterial therapy (IAT) is used increasingly as a treatment option for acute stroke caused by central large vessel occlusions. Despite high rates of recanalization, the clinical outcome is highly variable. The authors evaluated the Houston IAT (HIAT) and the totaled health risks in vascular events (THRIVE) score, two predicting scores designed to identify patients likely to benefit from IAT. Methods: Fifty-two patients treated at the Stavanger University Hospital with IAT from May 2009 to June 2012 were included in this study. We combined the scores in an additional analysis. We also performed an additional analysis according to high agemore » and evaluated the scores in respect of technical efficacy. Results: Fifty-two patients were evaluated by the THRIVE score and 51 by the HIAT score. We found a strong correlation between the level of predicted risk and the actual clinical outcome (THRIVE p = 0.002, HIAT p = 0.003). The correlations were limited to patients successfully recanalized and to patients <80 years. By combining the scores additional 14.3 % of the patients could be identified as poor candidates for IAT. Both scores were insufficient to identify patients with a good clinical outcome. Conclusions: Both scores showed a strong correlation to poor clinical outcome in patients <80 years. The specificity of the scores could be enhanced by combining them. Both scores were insufficient to identify patients with a good clinical outcome and showed no association to clinical outcome in patients aged {>=}80 years.« less

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

PubMed

Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

2016-03-01

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity within 30 days of discharge following acute coronary syndrome in a contemporary European cohort of patients: How can early risk prediction be improved? The six-month GRACE risk score.

PubMed

Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Abu-Assi, Emad; Cambeiro-González, Cristina; Álvarez-Álvarez, Belén; Pereira-López, Eva; Gestal-Romaní, Santiago; Pedreira-López, Milagros; Rigueiro-Veloso, Pedro; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

2015-06-01

Given the increasing focus on early mortality and readmission rates among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), this study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of the GRACE risk score for identifying patients at high risk of 30-day post-discharge mortality and cardiovascular readmission. This was a retrospective study carried out in a single center with 4229 ACS patients discharged between 2004 and 2010. The study endpoint was the combination of 30-day post-discharge mortality and readmission due to reinfarction, heart failure or stroke. One hundred and fourteen patients had 30-day events: 0.7% mortality, 1% reinfarction, 1.3% heart failure, and 0.2% stroke. After multivariate analysis, the six-month GRACE risk score was associated with an increased risk of 30-day events (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04; p<0.001), demonstrating good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.79 ± 0.02) and optimal fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were adequate (78.1% and 63.3%, respectively), and negative predictive value was excellent (99.1%). In separate analyses for each event of interest (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, heart failure and stroke), assessment of the six-month GRACE risk score also demonstrated good discrimination and fit, as well as adequate predictive values. The six-month GRACE risk score is a useful tool to predict 30-day post-discharge death and early cardiovascular readmission. Clinicians may find it simple to use with the online and mobile app score calculator and applicable to clinical daily practice. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

Evaluation of the Risk of Relapse in Ulcerative Colitis According to the Degree of Mucosal Healing (Mayo 0 vs 1): A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

PubMed

Barreiro-de Acosta, Manuel; Vallejo, Nicolau; de la Iglesia, Daniel; Uribarri, Laura; Bastón, Iria; Ferreiro-Iglesias, Rocío; Lorenzo, Aurelio; Domínguez-Muñoz, J Enrique

2016-01-01

Mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis (UC) has become a common endpoint in most clinical trials and a relevant therapeutic goal in clinical practice. Despite important differences between endoscopic Mayo scores 0 and 1, both scores are considered as mucosal healing in most important trials. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the risk of relapse in UC patients according to the degree of mucosal healing (endoscopic Mayo scores of 0 and 1). A prospective longitudinal cohort study was designed. All UC patients who presented with mucosal healing at colonoscopy were consecutively included. Mucosal healing was defined as an endoscopic Mayo score of 0 or 1. Clinical relapse was defined as the need for therapy to induce remission, any treatment escalation, hospitalization or colectomy. All clinical relapses were evaluated at months 6 and 12 after study entry. Results were subjected to unconditional stepwise logistic and Kaplan-Meier regression analysis. One hundred and eighty-seven consecutive UC patients (126 [67.3%] with Mayo score 0 and 61 [32.7%] with Mayo score 1) were included. Of patients with Mayo scores 0 and 1, 9.4 and 36.6% respectively presented a relapse during the first 6 months of follow-up (p < 0.001). The only factor independently associated with UC relapses in the multivariate analysis was an endoscopic Mayo score of 1 (odds ratio 6.27, 95% confidence interval 2.73-14.40, p < 0.001). Patients with an endoscopic Mayo score of 1 have a higher risk of relapse than those with a score of 0. The concept of mucosal healing should be limited to patients with an endoscopic Mayo score of 0. Copyright © 2015 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Diabetes risk score in the United Arab Emirates: a screening tool for the early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Sulaiman, Nabil; Hussein, Amal; Elbadawi, Salah; Abusnana, Salah; Zimmet, Paul

2018-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to develop a simple non-invasive risk score, specific to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) citizens, to identify individuals at increased risk of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods A retrospective analysis of the UAE National Diabetes and Lifestyle data was conducted. The data included demographic and anthropometric measurements, and fasting blood glucose. Univariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for diabetes. The risk score was developed for UAE citizens using a stepwise forward regression model. Results A total of 872 UAE citizens were studied. The overall prevalence of diabetes in the UAE adult citizens in the Northern Emirates was 25.1%. The significant risk factors identified for diabetes were age (≥35 years), a family history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index ≥30.0 and waist-to-hip ratio ≥0.90 for males and ≥0.85 for females. The performance of the model was moderate in terms of sensitivity (75.4%, 95% CI 68.3 to 81.7) and specificity (70%, 95% CI 65.8 to 73.9). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86). Conclusions A simple, non-invasive risk score model was developed to help to identify those at high risk of having diabetes among UAE citizens. This score could contribute to the efficient and less expensive earlier detection of diabetes in this high-risk population. PMID:29629178

Working postures of dental students: ergonomic analysis using the Ovako Working Analysis System and rapid upper limb assessment.

PubMed

Petromilli Nordi Sasso Garcia, Patrícia; Polli, Gabriela Scatimburgo; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2013-01-01

As dentistry is a profession that demands a manipulative precision of hand movements, musculoskeletal disorders are among the most common occupational diseases. This study estimated the risk of musculoskeletal disorders developing in dental students using the Ovako Working Analysis System (OWAS) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) methods, and estimated the diagnostic agreement between the 2 methods. Students (n = 75), enrolled in the final undergraduate year at the Araraquara School of Dentistry--UNESP--were studied. Photographs were taken of students while performing diverse clinical procedures (n = 283) using a digital camera, which were assessed using OWAS and RULA. A risk score was attributed following each procedure performed by the student. The prevalence of the risk of musculoskeletal disorders was estimated per point and for a 95% CI. To assess the agreement between the 2 methods, Kappa statistics with linear weighting were used. The level of significance adopted was 5%. There was a high prevalence of the mean score for risk of musculoskeletal disorders in the dental students evaluated according to the OWAS method (p = 97.88%; 95% CI: 96.20-99.56%), and a high prevalence of the high score (p = 40.6; 95% CI: 34.9-46.4%) and extremely high risk (p = 59.4%; 95% CI: 53.6-65.1%) according to RULA method Null agreement was verified (k = 0) in the risk di agnosis of the tested methods. The risk of musculoskeletal disorders in dental students estimated by the OWAS method was medium, whereas the same risk by the RULA method was extremely high. There was no diagnostic agreement between the OWAS and RULA methods.

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-10-12

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by "a posteriori" methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a "Healthy pattern" and a "Western pattern". The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08-1.65). In addition, the "Carbohydrate pattern", which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35-2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western ( p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate ( p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings.

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-01-01

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by “a posteriori” methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a “Healthy pattern” and a “Western pattern”. The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08–1.65). In addition, the “Carbohydrate pattern”, which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35–2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western (p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate (p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings. PMID:27754328

Are urge incontinence and aging risk factors of erectile dysfunction in patients with male lower urinary tract symptoms?

PubMed

Amano, Toshiyasu; Earle, Carolyn; Imao, Tetsuya; Takemae, Katsuro

2016-01-01

Several studies have indicated that erectile dysfunction (ED) patients also suffer from lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). We investigated a group of men with LUTS and assessed their sexual function with the aim of being able to predict ED risk factors and introduce ED treatments earlier for this patient group. International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), Overactive Bladder Symptoms Score (OABSS) and Sexual Health Inventory for Men (SHIM) score were obtained from 236 men with LUTS at their first out-patients visit. Clinical parameters such as body mass index, prostate volume, residual urine volume and prostate specific antigen were also evaluated. The relationship between the SHIM score and other clinical data was analyzed. According to the SHIM score, ED in men with LUTS was severe 15%, moderate 19%, moderate to mild 28%, mild 17%, normal 7% and data was incomplete in 14%. Based on the results of a multivariate analysis, aging (p < 0.001) and OAB severity (p = 0.024) were significantly correlated to severe and moderate ED. Furthermore, among OAB symptoms score items, urge urinary incontinence was a risk factor for severe and moderate ED (p = 0.005). Aging and OAB (notably urinary urge incontinence) are risk factors for severe and moderate ED in men with LUTS.

A community study on emotional distress among Arab and Jewish Israelis over the age of 60.

PubMed

Shemesh, Annarosa Anat; Kohn, Robert; Blumstein, Tzvia; Geraisy, Nabil; Novikov, Ilya; Levav, Itzhak

2006-01-01

The elderly constitute a vulnerable group for psychopathology, yet research on their mental health among both Arab and Jews in Israel remains limited. The same is the case in Arab countries. This paper reports on the contrasting distribution of the mean emotional distress (ED) scores and rates of suspected clinical cases, and their related risk factors, among community residents over the age of 60. Several national agencies conducted a survey on 5,055 elderly individuals to investigate their health status, including ED. The interview included socio-demographic and behavioral health items, as well as a modified 12 item-GHQ as a measure of ED. Total ED scores and prevalence rates for suspected psychopathology were calculated. Their respective risk factors were examined using univariate and multivariate methods. The ED scores were highest among Muslim Arabs (4.9), followed by Christian Arabs (4.2), Jews (3.1) and Druzes (2.8). Their estimated prevalence rates were 43.4%, 37.0%, 21.4%, and 17.0%, respectively. The gradient of these results remained unchanged in the multivariate analysis for ED scores adjusting for confounding variables. In contrast, logistic regression analysis controlling for confounding variables did not find a differential risk for suspected psychopathology between Arabs and Jews. Conceivably, the higher demoralization scores among elderly Arabs are associated with their minority status affiliation, as well as with the rapid social changes that have taken place in their midst. A cultural response style may be entertained as a possible explanation. However, these factors do not impact the risk for suspected psychopathology where no differential risk was noted after adjustments for confounders. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Injury prediction scores facilitate the development of clinical management protocols to decrease mortality. However, most of the previously developed scores are limited in scope and are non-specific for use in children. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of death for injured and Traumatised Thai children. Methods Our cross-sectional study included 43,516 injured children from 34 emergency services. A risk prediction model was derived using a logistic regression analysis that included 15 predictors. Model performance was assessed using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and the observed per expected (O/E) ratio. Internal validation of the model was performed using a 200-repetition bootstrap analysis. Results Death occurred in 1.7% of the injured children (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.57–1.82). Ten predictors (i.e., age, airway intervention, physical injury mechanism, three injured body regions, the Glasgow Coma Scale, and three vital signs) were significantly associated with death. The C-statistic and the O/E ratio were 0.938 (95% CI: 0.929–0.947) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.70–1.02), respectively. The scoring scheme classified three risk stratifications with respective likelihood ratios of 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25–1.27), 2.45 (95% CI: 2.42–2.52), and 4.72 (95% CI: 4.57–4.88) for low, intermediate, and high risks of death. Internal validation showed good model performance (C-statistic = 0.938, 95% CI: 0.926–0.952) and a small calibration bias of 0.002 (95% CI: 0.0005–0.003). Conclusions We developed a simplified Thai pediatric injury death prediction score with satisfactory calibrated and discriminative performance in emergency room settings. PMID:24575982

Adherence to Mediterranean diet and risk of developing cognitive disorders: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali

2017-01-01

Recent articles have presented inconsistent findings on the impact of Mediterranean diet in the occurrence of cognitive disorders; therefore, we performed an updated systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the potential association and dose-response pattern with accumulating evidence. We searched the PubMed and the Embase for the records relevant to this topic. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the outcome data for continuous variable, and categories of high vs. low, median vs. low of Mediterranean diet score with a random-effects model. Generalized least-squares trend estimation model was used to estimate the potential dose-response patterns of Mediterranean diet score on incident cognitive disorders. We identified 9 cohort studies involving 34,168 participants. Compared with the lowest category, the pooled analysis showed that the highest Mediterranean diet score was inversely associated with the developing of cognitive disorders, and the pooled RR (95% CI) was 0.79 (0.70, 0.90). Mediterranean diet score of the median category was not significantly associated with cognitive disorders. Dose-response analysis indicated a trend of an approximately linear relationship of the Mediterranean diet score with the incident risk of cognitive disorders. Further studies of randomized controlled trials are warranted to confirm the observed association in different populations. PMID:28112268

A clinical score to predict the need for intraaortic balloon pump in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Miceli, Antonio; Duggan, Simon M J; Capoun, Radek; Romeo, Francesco; Caputo, Massimo; Angelini, Gianni D

2010-08-01

There is no accepted consensus on the definition of high-risk patients who may benefit from the use of intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The aim of this study was to develop a risk model to identify high-risk patients and predict the need for IABP insertion during CABG. From April 1996 to December 2006, 8,872 consecutive patients underwent isolated CABG; of these 182 patients (2.1%) received intraoperative or postoperative IABP. The scoring risk model was developed in 4,575 patients (derivation dataset) and validated on the remaining patients (validation dataset). Predictive accuracy was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Mortality was 1% in the entire cohort and 18.7% (22 patients) in the group which received IABP. Multivariable analysis showed that age greater than 70 years, moderate and poor left ventricular dysfunction, previous cardiac surgery, emergency operation, left main disease, Canadian Cardiovascular Society 3-4 class, and recent myocardial infarction were independent risk factors for the need of IABP insertion. Three risk groups were identified. The observed probability of receiving IABP and mortality in the validation dataset was 36.4% and 10% in the high-risk group (score >14), 10.9% and 2.8% in the medium-risk group (score 7 to 13), and 1.7% and 0.7% in the low-risk group (score 0 to 6). This simple clinical risk model based on preoperative clinical data can be used to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from elective insertion of IABP during CABG. Copyright 2010 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

Influences on emergency department length of stay for older people.

PubMed

Street, Maryann; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Berry, Debra; Cross, Anthony; Considine, Julie

2018-02-14

The aim of this study was to examine the influences on emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) for older people and develop a predictive model for an ED LOS more than 4 h. This retrospective cohort study used organizational data linkage at the patient level from a major Australian health service. The study population was aged 65 years or older, attending an ED during the 2013/2014 financial year. We developed and internally validated a clinical prediction rule. Discriminatory performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. An integer-based risk score was developed using multivariate logistic regression. The risk score was evaluated using ROC analysis. There were 33 926 ED attendances: 57.5% (n=19 517) had an ED LOS more than 4 h. The area under ROC for age, usual accommodation, triage category, arrival by ambulance, arrival overnight, imaging, laboratory investigations, overcrowding, time to be seen by doctor, ED visits with admission and access block relating to ED LOS more than 4 h was 0.796, indicating good performance. In the validation set, area under ROC was 0.80, P-value was 0.36 and prediction mean square error was 0.18, indicating good calibration. The risk score value attributed to each risk factor ranged from 2 to 68 points. The clinical prediction rule stratified patients into five levels of risk on the basis of the total risk score. Objective identification of older people at intermediate and high risk of an ED LOS more than 4 h early in ED care enables targeted approaches to streamline the patient journey, decrease ED LOS and optimize emergency care for older people.

Psychopathy and the Combination of Psychopathy and Sexual Deviance as Predictors of Sexual Recidivism: Meta-Analytic Findings Using the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawes, Samuel W.; Boccaccini, Marcus T.; Murrie, Daniel C.

2013-01-01

Clinicians routinely administer Hare's (2003) Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) to sex offenders and report PCL-R scores as meaningful predictors of recidivism risk. Although a 2005 meta-analysis reported a small (d = 0.29) association between PCL-R scores and sexual recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005), no meta-analysis has examined…

Evaluation of Non-Laboratory and Laboratory Prediction Models for Current and Future Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional and Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Hahn, Seokyung; Moon, Min Kyong; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Young Min

2016-01-01

Background Various diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters have been developed, but only a few studies performed cross-validation of these scores and a comparison with laboratory parameters. We evaluated the performance of diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters, including a recently published Korean risk score (KRS), and compared them with laboratory parameters. Methods The data of 26,675 individuals who visited the Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center for a health screening program were reviewed for cross-sectional validation. The data of 3,029 individuals with a mean of 6.2 years of follow-up were reviewed for longitudinal validation. The KRS and 16 other risk scores were evaluated and compared with a laboratory prediction model developed by logistic regression analysis. Results For the screening of undiagnosed diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 81%, a specificity of 58%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) of 0.754. Other scores showed AROCs that ranged from 0.697 to 0.782. For the prediction of future diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 54%, and an AROC of 0.696. Other scores had AROCs ranging from 0.630 to 0.721. The laboratory prediction model composed of fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels showed a significantly higher AROC (0.838, P < 0.001) than the KRS. The addition of the KRS to the laboratory prediction model increased the AROC (0.849, P = 0.016) without a significant improvement in the risk classification (net reclassification index: 4.6%, P = 0.264). Conclusions The non-laboratory risk scores, including KRS, are useful to estimate the risk of undiagnosed diabetes but are inferior to the laboratory parameters for predicting future diabetes. PMID:27214034

ADAMTS13 test and/or PLASMIC clinical score in management of acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura: a cost-effective analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Chong H; Simmons, Sierra C; Williams, Lance A; Staley, Elizabeth M; Zheng, X Long; Pham, Huy P

2017-11-01

The ADAMTS13 test distinguishes thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) from other thrombotic microangiopathies (TMAs). The PLASMIC score helps determine the pretest probability of ADAMTS13 deficiency. Due to inherent limitations of both tests, and potential adverse effects and cost of unnecessary treatments, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) investigating the benefits of incorporating an in-hospital ADAMTS13 test and/or PLASMIC score into our clinical practice. A CEA model was created to compare four scenarios for patients with TMAs, utilizing either an in-house or a send-out ADAMTS13 assay with or without prior risk stratification using PLASMIC scoring. Model variables, including probabilities and costs, were gathered from the medical literature, except for the ADAMTS13 send-out and in-house tests, which were obtained from our institutional data. If only the cost is considered, in-house ADAMTS13 test for patients with intermediate- to high-risk PLASMIC score is the least expensive option ($4,732/patient). If effectiveness is assessed as measured by the number of averted deaths, send-out ADAMTS13 test is the most effective. Considering the cost/effectiveness ratio, the in-house ADAMTS13 test in patients with intermediate- to high-risk PLASMIC score is the best option, followed by the in-house ADAMTS13 test without the PLASMIC score. In patients with clinical presentations of TMAs, having an in-hospital ADAMTS13 test to promptly establish the diagnosis of TTP appears to be cost-effective. Utilizing the PLASMIC score further increases the cost-effectiveness of the in-house ADAMTS13 test. Our findings indicate the benefit of having a rapid and reliable in-house ADAMTS13 test, especially in the tertiary medical center. © 2017 AABB.

Myocardial perfusion imaging in patients with a recent, normal exercise test.

PubMed

Bovin, Ann; Klausen, Ib C; Petersen, Lars J

2013-03-26

To investigate the added value of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy imaging (MPI) in consecutive patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) and a recent, normal exercise electrocardiography (ECG). This study was a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients referred for MPI during a 2-year period from 2006-2007 at one clinic. All eligible patients were suspected of suffering from CAD, and had performed a satisfactory bicycle exercise test (i.e., peak heart rate > 85% of the expected, age-predicted maximum) within 6 mo of referral, their exercise ECG was had no signs of ischemia, there was no exercise-limiting angina, and no cardiac events occurred between the exercise test and referral. The patients subsequently underwent a standard 2-d, stress-rest exercise MPI. Ischemia was defined based on visual scoring supported by quantitative segmental analysis (i.e., sum of stress score > 3). The results of cardiac catheterization were analyzed, and clinical follow up was performed by review of electronic medical files. A total of 56 patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Most patients had a low or intermediate ATPIII pre-test risk of CAD (6 patients had a high pre-test risk). The referral exercise test showed a mean Duke score of 5 (range: 2 to 11), which translated to a low post-exercise risk in 66% and intermediate risk in 34%. A total of seven patients were reported with ischemia by MPI. Three of these patients had high ATPIII pre-test risk scores. Six of these seven patients underwent cardiac catheterization, which showed significant stenosis in one patient with a high pre-test risk of CAD, and indeterminate lesions in three patients (two of whom had high pre-test risk scores). With MPI as a gate keeper for catheterization, no significant, epicardial stenosis was observed in any of the 50 patients (0%, 95% confidence interval 0.0 to 7.1) with low to intermediate pre-test risk of CAD and a negative exercise test. No cardiac events occurred in any patients within a median follow up period of > 1200 d. The added diagnostic value of MPI in patients with low or intermediate risk of CAD and a recent, normal exercise test is marginal.

The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

PubMed

Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

2014-02-01

To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors and the Framingham Risk Score in patients undergoing percutaneous intervention over the last 17 years by gender: time-trend analysis from the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry.

PubMed

Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Kim, Hyun-Soo; Hong, Jee-Young; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Lerman, Amir

2014-07-01

This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends. This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.

Can the optimal type of stent be predicted based on clinical risk factors? A subgroup analysis of the randomized BASKET-PROVE trial.

PubMed

Vassalli, Giuseppe; Klersy, Catherine; De Servi, Stefano; Galatius, Soeren; Erne, Paul; Eberli, Franz; Rickli, Hans; Hornig, Burkhard; Bertel, Osmund; Bonetti, Piero; Moccetti, Tiziano; Kaiser, Christoph; Pfisterer, Matthias; Pedrazzini, Giovanni

2016-03-01

The randomized BASKET-PROVE study showed no significant differences between sirolimus-eluting stents (SES), everolimus-eluting stents (EES), and bare-metal stents (BMS) with respect to the primary end point, rates of death from cardiac causes, or myocardial infarction (MI) at 2 years of follow-up, in patients requiring stenting of a large coronary artery. Clinical risk factors may affect clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary interventions. We present a retrospective analysis of the BASKET-PROVE data addressing the question as to whether the optimal type of stent can be predicted based on a cumulative clinical risk score. A total of 2,314 patients (mean age 66 years) who underwent coronary angioplasty and implantation of ≥1 stents that were ≥3.0 mm in diameter were randomly assigned to receive SES, EES, or BMS. A cumulative clinical risk score was derived using a Cox model that included age, gender, cardiovascular risk factors (hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, family history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, smoking), presence of ≥2 comorbidities (stroke, peripheral artery disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic rheumatic disease), a history of MI or coronary revascularization, and clinical presentation (stable angina, unstable angina, ST-segment elevation MI). An aggregate drug-eluting stent (DES) group (n = 1,549) comprising 775 patients receiving SES and 774 patients receiving EES was compared to 765 patients receiving BMS. Rates of death from cardiac causes or nonfatal MI at 2 years of follow-up were significantly increased in patients who were in the high tertile of risk stratification for the clinical risk score compared to those who were in the aggregate low-mid tertiles. In patients with a high clinical risk score, rates of death from cardiac causes or nonfatal MI were lower in patients receiving DES (2.4 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 1.6-3.6) compared with BMS (5.5 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 3.7-8.2, hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.80, P = .007). However, they were not significantly different between receivers of DES and BMS in patients in the low-mid risk tertiles. This exploratory analysis suggests that, in patients who require stenting of a large coronary artery, use of a clinical risk score may identify those patients for whom DES use may confer a clinical advantage over BMS, beyond lower restenosis rates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic risk score analysis indicates migraine with and without comorbid depression are genetically different disorders

PubMed Central

Ligthart, Lannie; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Lewis, Cathryn M.; Farmer, Anne E.; Craig, Ian W.; Breen, Gerome; Willemsen, Gonneke; Vink, Jacqueline M.; Middeldorp, Christel M.; Byrne, Enda M.; Heath, Andrew C.; Madden, Pamela A.F.; Pergadia, Michele L.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Penninx, Brenda W.J.H.; McGuffin, Peter; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nyholt, Dale R.

2013-01-01

Migraine and major depressive disorder (MDD) are comorbid, moderately heritable and to some extent influenced by the same genes. In a previous paper, we suggested the possibility of causality (one trait causing the other) underlying this comorbidity. We present a new application of polygenic (genetic risk) score analysis to investigate the mechanisms underlying the genetic overlap of migraine and MDD. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on data from two discovery samples in which genome-wide association analyses (GWA) were performed for migraine and MDD, respectively. The Australian Twin Migraine GWA study (N = 6350) included 2825 migraine cases and 3525 controls, 805 of whom met the diagnostic criteria for MDD. The RADIANT GWA study (N = 3230) included 1636 MDD cases and 1594 controls. Genetic risk scores for migraine and for MDD were used to predict pure and comorbid forms of migraine and MDD in an independent Dutch target sample (NTR-NESDA, N = 2966), which included 1476 MDD cases and 1058 migraine cases (723 of these individuals had both disorders concurrently). The observed patterns of prediction suggest that the ‘pure’ forms of migraine and MDD are genetically distinct disorders. The subgroup of individuals with comorbid MDD and migraine were genetically most similar to MDD patients. These results indicate that in at least a subset of migraine patients with MDD, migraine may be a symptom or consequence of MDD. PMID:24081561

White Matter Lesions: Prevalence and Clinical Phenotype in Asymptomatic Individuals Aged ≥50 Years.

PubMed

David, Jean-Philippe; Ferrat, Emilie; Parisot, Juliette; Naga, Henri; Lakroun, Samia; Menasria, Feriel; Saddedine, Sofiane; Natella, Pierre-André; Paillaud, Elena; Fromentin, Isabelle; Bastuji-Garin, Sylvie

2016-01-01

To assess the prevalence of early confluent/confluent white matter lesions (ec/cWMLs) in asymptomatic individuals aged ≥50 years and to identify associated clinical phenotypes. Cross-sectional analysis of 141 asymptomatic individuals aged ≥50 years assessed at an outpatient department in France. Brain magnetic resonance imaging was rated using the Fazekas scale. Age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using logistic models to investigate factors associated with ec/cWMLs; independent risk factors were identified by multivariate analysis. Median age was 63 years; 53.9% were women, 32.6% had hypertension, and 76.6% had ≥1 cardiovascular risk factors. The prevalence of ec/cWMLs was 26.2%. Apart from age, independent risk factors were family history of cardiovascular event (OR = 5.55; 1.13-27.32) and hypertension (2.47; 1.05-5.81). Patients with ec/cWMLs had lower cognitive dual-task walking speed (1.15; 0.98-1.40), MMSE (1.41; 1.06-1.89), and FAB scores (5.21; 1.49-19.84). The Scheltens score was independently associated with the WML severity score. ec/cWMLs are common in asymptomatic community-dwelling individuals aged ≥50 years. They are associated with cardiovascular risk factors, impairments in global and executive cognitive function, and Scheltens score elevation. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score (Congestive Heart Failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 [Doubled], Diabetes Mellitus, Prior Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack [Doubled], Vascular Disease, Age 65-74, Female) for Stroke in Asian Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Korean Nationwide Sample Cohort Study.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Hoon; Yang, Pil-Sung; Uhm, Jae-Sun; Kim, Jong-Youn; Pak, Hui-Nam; Lee, Moon-Hyoung; Joung, Boyoung; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-06-01

The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc stroke score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74, female) is used in most guidelines for risk stratification in atrial fibrillation (AF), but most data for this score have been derived in Western populations. Ethnic differences in stroke risk may be present. Our objective was to investigate risk factors for stroke in AF and application of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in an Asian AF population from Korea. A total of 5855 oral anticoagulant-naive nonvalvular AF patients aged ≥20 years were enrolled from Korea National Health Insurance Service Sample cohort from 2002 to 2008 and were followed up until December 2013. The incidence rates (per 100 person-years) of ischemic stroke were 3.32 in the total population, being 0.23 in low-risk (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 0 [male] or 1 [female]) and 4.59 in high-risk patients (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc ≥2). Incidence rates of ischemic stroke or the composite thromboembolism end point showed a clear increase with increasing CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. On multivariable analysis, significant associations between CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc risk factors and ischemic stroke were observed; however, the significance of vascular disease or diabetes mellitus was attenuated after multivariate adjustment, and female sex (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.84) had a lower risk of ischemic stroke than males. Patients who were categorized as low risk consistently had an event rate <1% per year. The performance of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in Asians is comparable with that in Western populations. The score shows good performance in defining the truly-low-risk AF patients for stroke/thromboembolism. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification.

PubMed

Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil; Westra, Jelmer Sybren; Rasmussen, Laust Dupont; Knudsen, Lars Lyhne; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Kirk Johansen, Jane; Larsen, Bjarke Skogstad; Struijk, Johannes Jan; Frost, Lars; Holm, Niels Ramsing; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Botker, Hans Erik; Bøttcher, Morten

2018-06-01

Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD. We included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. Sound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Anaemia to predict outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Ennezat, Pierre Vladimir; Maréchaux, Sylvestre; Pinçon, Claire; Finzi, Jonathan; Barrailler, Stéphanie; Bouabdallaoui, Nadia; Van Belle, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles; Collet, Jean-Philippe

2013-01-01

Owing to the heterogeneous population of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), risk stratification with tools such as the GRACE risk score is recommended to guide therapeutic management and improve outcome. To evaluate whether anaemia refines the value of the GRACE risk model to predict midterm outcome after an ACS. A prospective registry of 1064 ACS patients (63 ± 14 years; 73% men; 57% ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI]) was studied. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin less than 13 mg/dL in men or less than 12 mg/dL in women. The primary endpoint was 6-month death or rehospitalization for MI. The primary endpoint was reached in 132 patients, including 68 deaths. Anaemia was associated with adverse clinical outcomes (hazard ratio 3.008, 95% confidence interval 2.137-4.234; P<0.0001) in univariate analysis and remained independently associated with outcome after adjustment for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (hazard ratio 2.870, 95% confidence interval 1.815-4.538; P<0.0001). Anaemia provided additional prognostic information to the GRACE score as demonstrated by a systematic improvement in global model fit and discrimination (c-statistic increasing from 0.633 [0.571;0.696] to 0.697 [0.638;0.755]). Subsequently, adding anaemia to the GRACE score led to reclassification of 595 patients into different risk categories; 16.5% patients at low risk (≤ 5% risk of death or rehospitalization for MI) were upgraded to intermediate (>5-10%) or high risk (>10%); 79.5% patients at intermediate risk were reclassified as low (55%) or high risk (24%); and 45.5% patients at high risk were downgraded to intermediate risk. Overall, 174 patients were reclassified into a higher risk category (17.3%) and 421 into a lower risk category (41.9%). Anaemia provides independent additional prognostic information to the GRACE score. Combining anaemia with the GRACE score refines its predictive value, which often overestimates the risk. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit.

PubMed

Wakabayashi, Hisao; Sano, Takanori; Yachida, Shinichi; Okano, Keiichi; Izuishi, Kunihiko; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

2007-10-01

The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.

[Risk scores for the development of venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients and in patients hospitalized for acute medical disease].

PubMed

Junod, A

2015-10-28

The recognition of an increased risk of VTE following surgery has initiated a similar investigation in: 1) Ambulatory subjects. In this group, the Qthrombosis score has identified 8 to 11 risk factors. The incidence of VTE is of the order of 0,15%/year. 2) The patients admitted to hospital for an acute medical disease. Nine scores are available for analysis. Results are difficult to interpret because of confusing factors: the inclusion of symptomatic VTE only or both symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE; the uncontrolled prescription of thromboprophylaxis. VTE incidence over 3 months varies between 15 and 0,5%, but is around 1% in the most recent studies. New studies, with a more rigorous methodological approach, are needed.

Independent risk factors of morbidity in penetrating colon injuries.

PubMed

Girgin, Sadullah; Gedik, Ercan; Uysal, Ersin; Taçyildiz, Ibrahim Halil

2009-05-01

The present study explored the factors effective on colon-related morbidity in patients with penetrating injury of the colon. The medical records of 196 patients were reviewed for variables including age, gender, factor of trauma, time between injury and operation, shock, duration of operation, Penetrating Abdominal Trauma Index (PATI), Injury Severity Score (ISS), site of colon injury, Colon Injury Score, fecal contamination, number of associated intra- and extraabdominal organ injuries, units of transfused blood within the first 24 hours, and type of surgery. In order to determine the independent risk factors, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Gunshot wounds, interval between injury and operation > or =6 hours, shock, duration of the operation > or =6 hours, PATI > or =25, ISS > or =20, Colon Injury Score > or = grade 3, major fecal contamination, number of associated intraabdominal organ injuries >2, number of associated extraabdominal organ injuries >2, multiple blood transfusions, and diversion were significantly associated with morbidity. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed diversion and transfusion of > or =4 units in the first 24 hours as independent risk factors affecting colon-related morbidity. Diversion and transfusion of > or =4 units in the first 24 hours were determined to be independent risk factors for colon-related morbidity.

Pulmonary edema predictive scoring index (PEPSI), a new index to predict risk of reperfusion pulmonary edema and improvement of hemodynamics in percutaneous transluminal pulmonary angioplasty.

PubMed

Inami, Takumi; Kataoka, Masaharu; Shimura, Nobuhiko; Ishiguro, Haruhisa; Yanagisawa, Ryoji; Taguchi, Hiroki; Fukuda, Keiichi; Yoshino, Hideaki; Satoh, Toru

2013-07-01

This study sought to identify useful predictors for hemodynamic improvement and risk of reperfusion pulmonary edema (RPE), a major complication of this procedure. Percutaneous transluminal pulmonary angioplasty (PTPA) has been reported to be effective for the treatment of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). PTPA has not been widespread because RPE has not been well predicted. We included 140 consecutive procedures in 54 patients with CTEPH. The flow appearance of the target vessels was graded into 4 groups (Pulmonary Flow Grade), and we proposed PEPSI (Pulmonary Edema Predictive Scoring Index) = (sum total change of Pulmonary Flow Grade scores) × (baseline pulmonary vascular resistance). Correlations between occurrence of RPE and 11 variables, including hemodynamic parameters, number of target vessels, and PEPSI, were analyzed. Hemodynamic parameters significantly improved after median observation period of 6.4 months, and the sum total changes in Pulmonary Flow Grade scores were significantly correlated with the improvement in hemodynamics. Multivariate analysis revealed that PEPSI was the strongest factor correlated with the occurrence of RPE (p < 0.0001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated PEPSI to be a useful marker of the risk of RPE (cutoff value 35.4, negative predictive value 92.3%). Pulmonary Flow Grade score is useful in determining therapeutic efficacy, and PEPSI is highly supportive to reduce the risk of RPE after PTPA. Using these 2 indexes, PTPA could become a safe and common therapeutic strategy for CTEPH. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of Area-Level Socioeconomic Deprivation on Risk of Cognitive Dysfunction in Older Adults.

PubMed

McCann, Adrian; McNulty, Helene; Rigby, Jan; Hughes, Catherine F; Hoey, Leane; Molloy, Anne M; Cunningham, Conal J; Casey, Miriam C; Tracey, Fergal; O'Kane, Maurice J; McCarroll, Kevin; Ward, Mary; Moore, Katie; Strain, J J; Moore, Adrian

2018-02-12

To investigate the relationship between area-level deprivation and risk of cognitive dysfunction. Cross-sectional analysis. The Trinity, Ulster, and Department of Agriculture (TUDA) study from 2008 to 2012. Community-dwelling adults aged 74.0 ± 8.3 without dementia (N = 5,186; 67% female). Adopting a cross-jurisdictional approach, geo-referenced address-based information was used to map and link participants to official socioeconomic indicators of deprivation within the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Participants were assigned an individual deprivation score related to the smallest administrative area in which they lived. These scores were categorized into comparable quintiles, that were then used to integrate the datasets from both countries. Cognitive health was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE); cognitive dysfunction was defined as a MMSE score of 24 or less. Approximately one-quarter of the cohort resided within the most-deprived districts in both countries. Greater area-level deprivation was associated with significantly lower MMSE scores; fewer years of formal education; greater anxiety, depression, smoking and alcohol use, and obesity; and more adverse outcomes, including higher blood pressure and diabetes risk. After adjustment for relevant covariates, area deprivation was associated with significantly higher risk of cognitive dysfunction (odds ratio =1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.87, P = .02, for most vs least deprived). This analysis combining data from two health systems shows that area deprivation is an independent risk factor for cognitive dysfunction in older adults. Adults living in areas of greatest socioeconomic deprivation may benefit from targeted strategies aimed at improving modifiable risk factors for dementia. Further cross-national analysis investigating the impact of area-level deprivation is needed to address socioeconomic disparities and shape future policy to improve health outcomes in older adults. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Adherence to the WCRF/AICR Dietary Recommendations for Cancer Prevention and Risk of Cancer in Elderly from Europe and the United States: A Meta-Analysis within the CHANCES Project.

PubMed

Jankovic, Nicole; Geelen, Anouk; Winkels, Renate M; Mwungura, Blaise; Fedirko, Veronika; Jenab, Mazda; Illner, Anne K; Brenner, Hermann; Ordóñez-Mena, José M; Kiefte de Jong, Jessica C; Franco, Oscar H; Orfanos, Philippos; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Boffetta, Paolo; Agudo, Antonio; Peeters, Petra H; Tjønneland, Anne; Hallmans, Göran; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Park, Yikyung; Feskens, Edith J; de Groot, Lisette C; Kampman, Ellen

2017-01-01

It is unknown whether dietary recommendations for cancer prevention are applicable to the elderly. We analyzed WCRF/AICR recommendations in cohorts of European and U.S. adults ages 60 years and above. Individual participant data meta-analysis included 362,114 participants (43% women), from seven prospective cohort studies, free from cancer at enrollment. The WCRF/AICR diet score was based on: (i) energy-dense foods and sugary drinks, (ii) plant foods, (iii) red and processed meat, and (iv) alcoholic drinks. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between the diet score and cancer risks. Adjusted, cohort-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk advancement periods (RAP) were calculated to quantify the time period by which the risk of cancer was postponed among those adhering to the recommendations. After a median follow-up of 11 to 15 years across cohorts, 70,877 cancer cases were identified. Each one-point increase in the WCRF/AICR diet score [range, 0 (no) to 4 (complete adherence)] was significantly associated with a lower risk of total cancer [HR, 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.92-0.97], cancers of the colorectum (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.89) and prostate (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97), but not breast or lung. Adherence to an additional component of the WCRF/AICR diet score significantly postponed the incidence of cancer at any site by 1.6 years (RAP, -1.6; 95% CI, -4.09 to -2.16). Adherence to WCRF/AICR dietary recommendations is associated with lower risk of cancer among older adults. Dietary recommendations for cancer prevention are applicable to the elderly. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(1); 136-44. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Adherence to the WCRF/AICR Dietary Recommendations for Cancer Prevention and Risk of Cancer in Elderly from Europe and the United States: A Meta-Analysis within the CHANCES Project

PubMed Central

Jankovic, Nicole; Geelen, Anouk; Winkels, Renate M.; Mwungura, Blaise; Fedirko, Veronika; Jenab, Mazda; Illner, Anne K.; Brenner, Hermann; Ordóñez-Mena, José M.; Kiefte de Jong, Jessica C.; Franco, Oscar H.; Orfanos, Philippos; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Boffetta, Paolo; Agudo, Antonio; Peeters, Petra H.; Tjønneland, Anne; Hallmans, Göran; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Park, Yikyung; Feskens, Edith J.; de Groot, Lisette C.; Kampman, Ellen

2016-01-01

Background It is unknown if dietary recommendations for cancer prevention are applicable to the elderly. We analyzed WCRF/AICR recommendations in cohorts of European and US adults aged 60 years and above. Methods Individual participant data meta-analysis including 361,616 participants (43% women), from seven prospective cohort studies, free from cancer at enrollment. The WCRF/AICR diet score was based on: 1) energy-dense foods and sugary drinks, 2) plant foods, 3) red and processed meat 4) alcoholic drinks. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between the diet score and cancer risks. Adjusted, cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk Advancement Periods (RAP) were calculated to quantify the time period by which the risk of cancer was postponed among those adhering to the recommendations. Results After a median follow-up of 10 to 15 years across cohorts, 70,877 cancer cases were identified. Each one-point increase in the WCRF/AICR diet score [range 0 (no) to 4 (complete adherence)] was significantly associated with a lower risk of total cancer (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92–0.97), cancers of the colorectum (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.80–0.89), prostate (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92–0.97), but not breast or lung. Adherence to an additional component of the WCRF/AICR diet score significantly postponed the incidence of cancer at any site by 1.6 years (RAP: −1.6, 95% CI: −4.09 to −2.16). Conclusion Adherence to WCRF/AICR dietary recommendations is associated with lower risk of cancer among older adults. Impact Dietary recommendations for cancer prevention are applicable to the elderly. PMID:27793797

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score Predicts Hospital Charges and Resource Utilization After Aortic Valve Replacement

PubMed Central

Arnaoutakis, George J.; George, Timothy J.; Alejo, Diane E.; Merlo, Christian A.; Baumgartner, William A.; Cameron, Duke E.; Shah, Ashish S.

2011-01-01

Context The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted mortality risk score on resource utilization after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has not been previously studied. Objective We hypothesize that increasing STS risk scores in patients having AVR are associated with greater hospital charges. Design, Setting, and Patients Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing AVR at a tertiary care, university hospital over a ten-year period (1/2000–12/2009) were retrospectively reviewed. The current STS formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles (Q), index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with Rank-Sum tests. Linear regression and Spearman’s coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. Main Outcome Measures Inflation-adjusted index hospitalization total charges Results 553 patients had AVR during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for AVR. Median charges were greater in the upper Q of AVR patients [Q1–3,$39,949 (IQR32,708–51,323) vs Q4,$62,301 (IQR45,952–97,103), p=<0.01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between STS risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient: 0.06, 95%CI 0.05–0.07, p<0.01). Spearman’s correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in STS risk score was associated with an added $3,000 in hospital charges. Conclusions This study showed increasing STS risk score predicts greater charges after AVR. As competing therapies such as percutaneous valve replacement emerge to treat high risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource utilization. PMID:21497834

Thrombogenicity and central pulse pressure to enhance prediction of ischemic event occurrence in patients with established coronary artery disease: The MAGMA-ischemia score.

PubMed

Bliden, Kevin P; Chaudhary, Rahul; Navarese, Eliano P; Sharma, Tushar; Kaza, Himabindu; Tantry, Udaya S; Gurbel, Paul A

2018-01-01

Conventional cardiovascular risk estimators based on clinical demographics have limited prediction of coronary events. Markers for thrombogenicity and vascular function have not been explored in risk estimation of high-risk patients with coronary artery disease. We aimed to develop a clinical and biomarker score to predict 3-year adverse cardiovascular events. Four hundred eleven patients, with ejection fraction ≥40% undergoing coronary angiography, and found to have a luminal diameter stenosis ≥50%, were included in the analysis. Thrombelastography indices and central pulse pressure (CPP) were determined at the time of catheterization. We identified predictors of death, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke and developed a numerical ischemia risk score. The primary endpoint of cardiovascular death, MI or stroke occurred in 22 patients (5.4%). The factors associated with events were age, prior PCI or CABG, diabetes, CPP, and thrombin-induced platelet-fibrin clot strength, and were included in the MAGMA-ischemia score. The MAGMA-ischemia score showed a c-statistic of 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.80-0.87; p<0.001) for the primary endpoint. In the subset of patients who underwent revascularization, the c-statistic was 0.90 (p<0.001). Patients with MAGMA-ischemia score greater than 5 had highest risk to develop clinical events, hazard ratio for the primary endpoint: 13.9 (95% CI 5.8-33.1, p<0.001) and for the secondary endpoint: 4.8 (95% CI 2.3-9.6, p<0.001). When compared to previous models, the MAGMA-ischemia score yielded a higher discrimination. Inclusion of CPP and assessment of thrombogenicity in a novel score for patients with documented CAD enhanced the prediction of events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Australian validation of the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical score to predict biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Beckmann, Kerri; O'Callaghan, Michael; Vincent, Andrew; Roder, David; Millar, Jeremy; Evans, Sue; McNeil, John; Moretti, Kim

2018-03-01

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical (CAPRA-S) score is a simple post-operative risk assessment tool predicting disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy, which is easily calculated using available clinical data. To be widely useful, risk tools require multiple external validations. We aimed to validate the CAPRA-S score in an Australian multi-institutional population, including private and public settings and reflecting community practice. The study population were all men on the South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes Collaborative Database with localized prostate cancer diagnosed during 1998-2013, who underwent radical prostatectomy without adjuvant therapy (n = 1664). Predictive performance was assessed via Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional regression analyses, Harrell's Concordance index, calibration plots and decision curve analysis. Biochemical recurrence occurred in 342 (21%) cases. Five-year recurrence-free probabilities for CAPRA-S scores indicating low (0-2), intermediate (3-5) and high risk were 95, 79 and 46%, respectively. The hazard ratio for CAPRA-S score increments was 1.56 (95% confidence interval 1.49-1.64). The Concordance index for 5-year recurrence-free survival was 0.77. The calibration plot showed good correlation between predicted and observed recurrence-free survival across scores. Limitations include the retrospective nature and small numbers with higher CAPRA-S scores. The CAPRA-S score is an accurate predictor of recurrence after radical prostatectomy in our cohort, supporting its utility in the Australian setting. This simple tool can assist in post-surgical selection of patients who would benefit from adjuvant therapy while avoiding morbidity among those less likely to benefit. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Development and validation of a predictive score for perioperative transfusion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver resection.

PubMed

Wang, Hai-Qing; Yang, Jian; Yang, Jia-Yin; Wang, Wen-Tao; Yan, Lu-Nan

2015-08-01

Liver resection is a major surgery requiring perioperative blood transfusion. Predicting the need for blood transfusion for patients undergoing liver resection is of great importance. The present study aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting transfusion requirement in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing liver resection. A total of 1543 consecutive liver resections were included in the study. Randomly selected sample set of 1080 cases (70% of the study cohort) were used to develop a predictive score for transfusion requirement and the remaining 30% (n=463) was used to validate the score. Based on the preoperative and predictable intraoperative parameters, logistic regression was used to identify risk factors and to create an integer score for the prediction of transfusion requirement. Extrahepatic procedure, major liver resection, hemoglobin level and platelets count were identified as independent predictors for transfusion requirement by logistic regression analysis. A score system integrating these 4 factors was stratified into three groups which could predict the risk of transfusion, with a rate of 11.4%, 24.7% and 57.4% for low, moderate and high risk, respectively. The prediction model appeared accurate with good discriminatory abilities, generating an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.736 in the development set and 0.709 in the validation set. We have developed and validated an integer-based risk score to predict perioperative transfusion for patients undergoing liver resection in a high-volume surgical center. This score allows identifying patients at a high risk and may alter transfusion practices.

Using Latent Class Analysis to Identify Academic and Behavioral Risk Status in Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Kathleen R.; Lembke, Erica S.; Reinke, Wendy M.

2016-01-01

Identifying classes of children on the basis of academic and behavior risk may have important implications for the allocation of intervention resources within Response to Intervention (RTI) and Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS) models. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted with a sample of 517 third grade students. Fall screening scores in…

Comparative study of joint analysis of microarray gene expression data in survival prediction and risk assessment of breast cancer patients

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Microarray gene expression data sets are jointly analyzed to increase statistical power. They could either be merged together or analyzed by meta-analysis. For a given ensemble of data sets, it cannot be foreseen which of these paradigms, merging or meta-analysis, works better. In this article, three joint analysis methods, Z -score normalization, ComBat and the inverse normal method (meta-analysis) were selected for survival prognosis and risk assessment of breast cancer patients. The methods were applied to eight microarray gene expression data sets, totaling 1324 patients with two clinical endpoints, overall survival and relapse-free survival. The performance derived from the joint analysis methods was evaluated using Cox regression for survival analysis and independent validation used as bias estimation. Overall, Z -score normalization had a better performance than ComBat and meta-analysis. Higher Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve and hazard ratio were also obtained when independent validation was used as bias estimation. With a lower time and memory complexity, Z -score normalization is a simple method for joint analysis of microarray gene expression data sets. The derived findings suggest further assessment of this method in future survival prediction and cancer classification applications. PMID:26504096

Treatment-related mortality in patients with advanced-stage hodgkin lymphoma: an analysis of the german hodgkin study group.

PubMed

Wongso, Diana; Fuchs, Michael; Plütschow, Annette; Klimm, Beate; Sasse, Stephanie; Hertenstein, Bernd; Maschmeyer, Georg; Vieler, Tom; Dührsen, Ulrich; Lindemann, Walter; Aulitzky, Walter; Diehl, Volker; Borchmann, Peter; Engert, Andreas

2013-08-01

The introduction of BEACOPP(escalated) (escalated-dose bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone) has significantly improved tumor control and overall survival in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma. However, this regimen has also been associated with higher treatment-related mortality (TRM). Thus, we analyzed clinical course and risk factors associated with TRM during treatment with BEACOPP(escalated). In this retrospective analysis, we investigated incidence, clinical features, and risk factors for BEACOPP(escalated)-associated TRM in the German Hodgkin Study Group trials HD9, HD12, and HD15. Among a total of 3,402 patients, TRM of 1.9% (64 of 3,402) was mainly related to neutropenic infections (n = 56; 87.5%). Twenty of 64 events occurred during the first course of BEACOPP(escalated) (31.3%). Higher risk of TRM was seen in patients age ≥ 40 years with poor performance status (PS) and in patients age ≥ 50 years. PS and age were then used to construct a new risk score; those with a score ≥ 2 had TRM of 7.1%, whereas patients who scored 0 or 1 had TRM of 0.9%. The individual risk of TRM associated with BEACOPP(escalated) can be predicted by a simple algorithm based on age and PS. High-risk patients should receive special clinical attention.

Consumer default risk assessment in a banking institution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa e Silva, Eliana; Lopes, Isabel Cristina; Correia, Aldina; Faria, Susana

2016-12-01

Credit scoring is an application of financial risk forecasting to consumer lending. In this study, statistical analysis is applied to credit scoring data from a financial institution to evaluate the default risk of consumer loans. The default risk was found to be influenced by the spread, the age of the consumer, the number of credit cards owned by the consumer. A lower spread, a higher number of credit cards and a younger age of the borrower are factors that decrease the risk of default. Clients receiving the salary in the same banking institution of the loan have less chances of default than clients receiving their salary in another institution. We also found that clients in the lowest income tax echelon have more propensity to default.

The incremental value of troponin biomarkers in risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes: is the relationship multiplicative?

PubMed

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-05-20

To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score.

The Incremental Value of Troponin Biomarkers in Risk Stratification of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Is the Relationship Multiplicative?

PubMed Central

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-01-01

Structured Abstract Objective: To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). Methods: 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. Results: The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. Conclusions: We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score. PMID:19557150

Value of the SYNTAX score for periprocedural myocardial infarction according to WHO and the third universal definition of myocardial infarction: insights from the TWENTE trial.

PubMed

Tandjung, Kenneth; Lam, Ming Kai; Sen, Hanim; de Man, Frits H A F; Louwerenburg, J Hans W; Stoel, Martin G; van Houwelingen, K Gert; Linssen, Gerard C M; van der Palen, Job; Doggen, Carine J M; von Birgelen, Clemens

2016-07-20

The SYNTAX score is a tool to quantify the complexity of coronary artery disease. We investigated the relation between the SYNTAX score and the occurrence of a periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) according to the historical definition of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the recently updated universal definition of MI. The SYNTAX score was calculated in 1,243 patients enrolled in TWENTE, a randomised trial which assessed second-generation drug-eluting stents. PMI was defined by the WHO definition and the third universal definition of MI. Patients were divided into tertiles of the SYNTAX score: ≤7 (n=430); >7 and <15 (n=390); ≥15 (n=423). PMI according to the WHO definition occurred more frequently in patients in the highest SYNTAX score tertile (7.3% vs. 3.1% vs. 1.6%, p<0.001) compared to the mid and lowest tertile. Similar findings were seen for universal PMI (9.9% vs. 7.7% vs. 3.7%, p<0.01). After multivariate analysis, SYNTAX score was a significant independent correlate of PMI for both definitions: the highest SYNTAX score tertile had an almost five times higher risk for WHO PMI, and a three times higher risk for universal PMI. In a broad patient population treated with second-generation DES, the SYNTAX score was able to stratify the risk of PMI.

Complete remission and early death after intensive chemotherapy in patients aged 60 years or older with acute myeloid leukaemia: a web-based application for prediction of outcomes.

PubMed

Krug, Utz; Röllig, Christoph; Koschmieder, Anja; Heinecke, Achim; Sauerland, Maria Cristina; Schaich, Markus; Thiede, Christian; Kramer, Michael; Braess, Jan; Spiekermann, Karsten; Haferlach, Torsten; Haferlach, Claudia; Koschmieder, Steffen; Rohde, Christian; Serve, Hubert; Wörmann, Bernhard; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Ehninger, Gerhard; Berdel, Wolfgang E; Büchner, Thomas; Müller-Tidow, Carsten

2010-12-11

About 50% of patients (age ≥60 years) who have acute myeloid leukaemia and are otherwise medically healthy (ie, able to undergo intensive chemotherapy) achieve a complete remission (CR) after intensive chemotherapy, but with a substantially increased risk of early death (ED) compared with younger patients. We verified the association of standard clinical and laboratory variables with CR and ED and developed a web-based application for risk assessment of intensive chemotherapy in these patients. Multivariate regression analysis was used to develop risk scores with or without knowledge of the cytogenetic and molecular risk profiles for a cohort of 1406 patients (aged ≥60 years) with acute myeloid leukaemia, but otherwise medically healthy, who were treated with two courses of intensive induction chemotherapy (tioguanine, standard-dose cytarabine, and daunorubicin followed by high-dose cytarabine and mitoxantrone; or with high-dose cytarabine and mitoxantrone in the first and second induction courses) in the German Acute Myeloid Leukaemia Cooperative Group 1999 study. Risk prediction was validated in an independent cohort of 801 patients (aged >60 years) with acute myeloid leukaemia who were given two courses of cytarabine and daunorubicin in the Acute Myeloid Leukaemia 1996 study. Body temperature, age, de-novo leukaemia versus leukaemia secondary to cytotoxic treatment or an antecedent haematological disease, haemoglobin, platelet count, fibrinogen, and serum concentration of lactate dehydrogenase were significantly associated with CR or ED. The probability of CR with knowledge of cytogenetic and molecular risk (score 1) was from 12% to 91%, and without knowledge (score 2) from 21% to 80%. The predicted risk of ED was from 6% to 69% for score 1 and from 7% to 63% for score 2. The predictive power of the risk scores was confirmed in the independent patient cohort (CR score 1, from 10% to 91%; CR score 2, from 16% to 80%; ED score 1, from 6% to 69%; and ED score 2, from 7% to 61%). The scores for acute myeloid leukaemia can be used to predict the probability of CR and the risk of ED in older patients with acute myeloid leukaemia, but otherwise medically healthy, for whom intensive induction chemotherapy is planned. This information can help physicians with difficult decisions for treatment of these patients. Deutsche Krebshilfe and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A climate-based prediction model in the high-risk clusters of the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam: towards improving dengue prevention and control.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Talukder, Mohammad Radwanur Rahman; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2016-10-01

To develop a prediction score scheme useful for prevention practitioners and authorities to implement dengue preparedness and controls in the Mekong Delta region (MDR). We applied a spatial scan statistic to identify high-risk dengue clusters in the MDR and used generalised linear-distributed lag models to examine climate-dengue associations using dengue case records and meteorological data from 2003 to 2013. The significant predictors were collapsed into categorical scales, and the β-coefficients of predictors were converted to prediction scores. The score scheme was validated for predicting dengue outbreaks using ROC analysis. The north-eastern MDR was identified as the high-risk cluster. A 1 °C increase in temperature at lag 1-4 and 5-8 weeks increased the dengue risk 11% (95% CI, 9-13) and 7% (95% CI, 6-8), respectively. A 1% rise in humidity increased dengue risk 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 1-4 and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 5-8 weeks. Similarly, a 1-mm increase in rainfall increased dengue risk 0.1% (95% CI, 0.05-0.16) at lag 1-4 and 0.11% (95% CI, 0.07-0.16) at lag 5-8 weeks. The predicted scores performed with high accuracy in diagnosing the dengue outbreaks (96.3%). This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a dengue prediction score scheme derived from complex statistical models for high-risk dengue clusters. We recommend a further study to examine the possibility of incorporating such a score scheme into the dengue early warning system in similar climate settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Survey of Knowledge about Oral Cancer and Related Factors in the Capital of Iran.

PubMed

Azimi, Somayyeh; Ghorbani, Zahra; Tennant, Marc; Kruger, Estie; Safiaghdam, Hannaneh; Rafieian, Nasrin

2017-08-24

Knowledge about oral cancer risk factors and signs is thought to improve prevention and early diagnosis, and in turn, increases survival. In this population-based survey, knowledge about oral cancer was assessed in Iran. A total of 1800 self-administered questionnaires (collecting sociodemographic data and questions regarding oral cancer risk factors and signs) were distributed through random sampling. Final scores ranged between 0 and 15 for the risk factors and 0-11 for the signs. Scores below the median indicated a low level of knowledge, scores representing the third quartile of correct answers indicated a moderate level of knowledge, and scores representing the upper quartile indicated a high level of knowledge. Statistical tests were used for analysis of knowledge level in different sociodemographic categories. A total of 1312 participants completed the questionnaires. The average of knowledge scores for risk factors was 5.3 ± 3.0 and for signs was 4.5 ± 2.9. Overall, 75 and 56% respectively were able to identify major risk factors (smoking and alcohol); 23.5% could not define any related signs and symptoms. Dividing scores into quartiles indicated that three out of four people had "low" knowledge about risk factors and 58% had "low" knowledge about signs and symptoms. Females and highly educated people had more knowledge of oral cancer. Significant difference was found between job and level of knowledge (P = 0.001). This survey revealed that public knowledge of oral cancer was not satisfactory in Iran. Efforts should be done to inform and educate people with risk factors, initial clinical presentation, and symptoms, in order to improve prevention and promote early diagnosis.

Applicability of the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Analysis in standard clinical practice conditions.

PubMed

Figueira Gonçalves, J M; Pérez Mendez, L I; Gurbani, N; García-Talavera, I; Pérez Pinilla, J L

2018-06-07

The COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score had been validated as a predictive tool capable of identifying patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and a high mortality risk associated with lung cancer (LC); however, studies have not been conducted yet on its use in standard clinical practice. The aim of this study was to estimate the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO scores for patients with COPD treated in Pulmonology consultations and to determine the incidence of LC in each of the subgroups. A retrospective observational study was conducted with a cohort of 159 patients with COPD in Pulmonology outpatient follow-up consultations. We calculated the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score (0-8) for each patient, with low risk considered at 0-3 points and high risk at ≥3.5 points. We calculated the incidence rate of LC in each of the subgroups. Sixty-two percent of the patients had a high-risk score. We estimated an overall LC rate of 30 per 1000 patients with COPD-year (95% CI: 16-53), 44 per 1000 patients with COPD-year (95% CI: 18-76) among those categorised as high risk and 17 per 1000 patients with COPD-year among those categorised as low risk (95% CI: 4-50). The use of the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score in standard clinical practice could help detect patients with a greater risk of developing LC, which could help to better manage cases in an LC screening programme. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

Unraveling Exercise Addiction: The Role of Narcissism and Self-Esteem

PubMed Central

Cicciarelli, Claudio; Romeo, Vincenzo Maria; Pandolfo, Gianluca

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the risk of exercise addiction (EA) in fitness clubs and to identify possible factors in the development of the disorder. The Exercise Addiction Inventory (EAI), the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI), and the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (SEI) were administered to a sample of 150 consecutive gym attenders recruited in fitness centers. Based on EAI total score, high EA risk group (HEA n = 51) and a low EA risk group (LEA n = 69) were identified. HEA reported significantly higher total score (mean = 20.2 versus 14.6) on the NPI scale and lower total score (mean = 32.2 versus 36.4) on the SEI scale than LEA. A stepwise regression analysis indicated that only narcissism and self-esteem total scores (F = 5.66; df = 2; P = 0.006) were good predictors of days per week exercise. The present study confirms the direct and combined role of both labile self-esteem and high narcissism in the development of exercise addiction as predictive factors towards the risk of addiction. Multidisciplinary trained health care providers (physiatrists, psychologists, and psychiatrists) should carefully identify potential overexercise conditions in order to prevent the potential risk of exercise addiction. PMID:25405056

Prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy: validation of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score and impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Hu, Meng-Bo; Yang, Tian; Hu, Ji-Meng; Zhu, Wen-Hui; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Ding, Qiang

2018-06-01

Our aim was to determine the prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), validate the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score, and investigate the impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM). The study enrolled Chinese patients diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma and treated with bilateral orchiectomy as PADT at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), from January 2003 to December 2015. The overall survival (OS) and prognostic value of J-CAPRA score, pre-existing obesity, DM, and various clinicopathological variables were analyzed. Of the 435 patients enrolled, 174 (40.0%) deaths occurred during follow-up; 3- and 5-year OS were 74.0 and 58.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that higher Gleason score and metastasis were both correlated with worse OS and that higher J-CAPRA score was correlated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.035-1.190, P = 0.003). Different risk categories based on J-CAPRA score showed good stratification in OS (log-rank P = 0.015). In subgroup analysis, pre-existing obesity as a protective factor in younger patients (age ≤ 65, HR 0.271, 95% CI 0.075-0.980, P = 0.046) and pre-existing DM as a risk factor in older patients (> 75, HR 1.854, 95% CI 1.026-3.351, P = 0.041) for OS were recognized, and the prediction accuracy of J-CAPRA was elevated after incorporating pre-existing obesity and DM. The J-CAPRA score presented with good OS differentiation among Chinese patients under PADT. Younger patients (age ≤ 65) had better OS with pre-existing obesity, while older patients (age > 75) had worse OS with pre-existing DM.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

PubMed

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Detecting aberrant opioid behavior in the emergency department: a prospective study using the screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised (SOAPP®-R), Current Opioid Misuse Measure (COMM)™, and provider gestalt.

PubMed

Varney, Shawn M; Perez, Crystal A; Araña, Allyson A; Carey, Katherine R; Ganem, Victoria J; Zarzabal, Lee A; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Bebarta, Vikhyat S

2018-03-03

Emergency department (ED) providers have limited time to evaluate patients at risk for opioid misuse. A validated tool to assess the risk for aberrant opioid behavior may mitigate adverse sequelae associated with prescription opioid misuse. We sought to determine if SOAPP-R, COMM, and provider gestalt were able to identify patients at risk for prescription opioid misuse as determined by pharmacy records at 12 months. We conducted a prospective observational study of adult patients in a high volume US ED. Patients completed the SOAPP-R and COMM, and treating EM providers evaluated patients' opioid misuse risk. We performed variable-centered, person-centered, and hierarchical cluster analyses to determine whether provider gestalt, SOAPP-R, or COMM, or a combination, predicted higher misuse risk. The primary outcome was the number of opioid prescriptions at 12 months according to pharmacy records. For 169 patients (mean age 43 years, 51% female, 73% white), correlation analysis showed a strong relationship between SOAPP-R and COMM with predicting the number of opioid prescriptions dispensed at 12 months. Provider scores estimating opioid misuse were not related to SOAPP-R and only weakly associated with COMM. In our adjusted regression models, provider gestalt and SOAPP-R uniquely predicted opioid prescriptions at 6 and 12 months. Using designated cutoff scores, only SOAPP-R detected a difference in the number of opioid prescriptions. Cluster analysis revealed that provider gestalt, SOAPP-R, and COMM scores jointly predicted opioid prescriptions. Provider gestalt and self-report instruments uniquely predicted the number of opioid prescriptions in ED patients. A combination of gestalt and self-assessment scores can be used to identify at-risk patients who otherwise miss the cutoff scores for SOAPP-R and COMM.

Validation of the Framingham Heart Study and CHARGE-AF Risk Scores for Atrial Fibrillation in Hispanics, African-Americans, and Non-Hispanic Whites.

PubMed

Shulman, Eric; Kargoli, Faraj; Aagaard, Philip; Hoch, Ethan; Di Biase, Luigi; Fisher, John; Gross, Jay; Kim, Soo; Krumerman, Andrew; Ferrick, Kevin J

2016-01-01

A risk score for atrial fibrillation (AF) has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study and Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)-AF consortium. However, validation of these risk scores in an inner-city population is uncertain. Thus, a validation model was built using the Framingham Risk Score for AF and CHARGE-AF covariates. An in and outpatient electrocardiographic database was interrogated from 2000 to 2013 for the development of AF. Patients were included if their age was >45 and <95 years, had <10-year follow-up, if their initial electrocardiogram was without AF, had ≥ 2 electrocardiograms, and declared a race and/or ethnicity as non-Hispanic white, African-American, or Hispanic. For the Framingham Heart Study, 49,599 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 4,860 developed AF. Discrimination analysis using area under the curve (AUC) for original risk equations: non-Hispanic white AUC = 0.712 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.694 to 0.731), African-American AUC = 0.733 (95% CI 0.716 to 0.751), and Hispanic AUC = 0.740 (95% CI 0.723 to 0.757). For the CHARGE-AF, 45,571 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 4,512 developed AF. Non-Hispanic white AUC = 0.673 (95% CI 0.652 to 0.694), African-American AUC = 0.706 (95% CI 0.685 to 0.727), and Hispanic AUC = 0.711 (95% CI 0.691 to 0.732). Calibration analysis showed qualitative similarities between cohorts. In conclusion, this is the first study to validate both the Framingham Heart Study and CHARGE-AF risk scores in both a Hispanic and African-American cohort. All models predicted AF well across all race and ethnic cohorts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-cultural validity of a dietary questionnaire for studies of dental caries risk in Japanese.

PubMed

Shinga-Ishihara, Chikako; Nakai, Yukie; Milgrom, Peter; Murakami, Kaori; Matsumoto-Nakano, Michiyo

2014-01-02

Diet is a major modifiable contributing factor in the etiology of dental caries. The purpose of this paper is to examine the reliability and cross-cultural validity of the Japanese version of the Food Frequency Questionnaire to assess dietary intake in relation to dental caries risk in Japanese. The 38-item Food Frequency Questionnaire, in which Japanese food items were added to increase content validity, was translated into Japanese, and administered to two samples. The first sample comprised 355 pregnant women with mean age of 29.2 ± 4.2 years for the internal consistency and criterion validity analyses. Factor analysis (principal components with Varimax rotation) was used to determine dimensionality. The dietary cariogenicity score was calculated from the Food Frequency Questionnaire and used for the analyses. Salivary mutans streptococci level was used as a semi-quantitative assessment of dental caries risk and measured by Dentocult SM. Dentocult SM scores were compared with the dietary cariogenicity score computed from the Food Frequency Questionnaire to examine criterion validity, and assessed by Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs) and Kruskal-Wallis test. Test-retest reliability of the Food Frequency Questionnaire was assessed with a second sample of 25 adults with mean age of 34.0 ± 3.0 years by using the intraclass correlation coefficient analysis. The Japanese language version of the Food Frequency Questionnaire showed high test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.70) and good criterion validity assessed by relationship with salivary mutans streptococci levels (rs = 0.22; p < 0.001). Factor analysis revealed four subscales that construct the questionnaire (solid sugars, solid and starchy sugars, liquid and semisolid sugars, sticky and slowly dissolving sugars). Internal consistency were low to acceptable (Cronbach's alpha = 0.67 for the total scale, 0.46-0.61 for each subscale). Mean dietary cariogenicity scores were 50.8 ± 19.5 in the first sample, 47.4 ± 14.1, and 40.6 ± 11.3 for the first and second administrations in the second sample. The distribution of Dentocult SM score was 6.8% (score = 0), 34.4% (score = 1), 39.4% (score = 2), and 19.4% (score = 3). Participants with higher scores were more likely to have higher dietary cariogenicity scores (p < 0.001; Kruskal-Wallis test). These results provide the preliminary evidence for the reliability and validity of the Japanese language Food Frequency Questionnaire.

A risk score to predict the incidence of prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy: An analysis from the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Falcoz, Pierre Emmanuel; Salati, Michele; Szanto, Zalan; Brunelli, Alessandro

2017-04-01

The study objective was to develop an aggregate risk score for predicting the occurrence of prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy from patients registered in the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. A total of 5069 patients who underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy (July 2007 to August 2015) were analyzed. Exclusion criteria included sublobar resections or pneumonectomies, lung resection associated with chest wall or diaphragm resections, sleeve resections, and need for postoperative assisted mechanical ventilation. Prolonged air leak was defined as an air leak more than 5 days. Several baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with prolonged air leak using univariable and logistic regression analyses, determined by bootstrap resampling. Predictors were proportionally weighed according to their regression estimates (assigning 1 point to the smallest coefficient). Prolonged air leak was observed in 504 patients (9.9%). Three variables were found associated with prolonged air leak after logistic regression: male gender (P < .0001, score = 1), forced expiratory volume in 1 second less than 80% (P < .0001, score = 1), and body mass index less than 18.5 kg/m 2 (P < .0001, score = 2). The aggregate prolonged air leak risk score was calculated for each patient by summing the individual scores assigned to each variable (range, 0-4). Patients were then grouped into 4 classes with an incremental risk of prolonged air leak (P < .0001): class A (score 0 points, 1493 patients) 6.3% with prolonged air leak, class B (score 1 point, 2240 patients) 10% with prolonged air leak, class C (score 2 points, 1219 patients) 13% with prolonged air leak, and class D (score >2 points, 117 patients) 25% with prolonged air leak. An aggregate risk score was created to stratify the incidence of prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy. The score can be used for patient counseling and to identify those patients who can benefit from additional intraoperative preventative measures. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term bleeding risk prediction in 'real world' patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

PubMed

Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldan, Vanessa; Vicente, Vicente; Valdés, Mariano; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-10-05

Risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABC-Bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent "real-world" anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2-3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3-18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84 %/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89 %/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17 %/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4 % over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first "real-world" validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.

Coronary artery calcium scoring does not add prognostic value to standard 64-section CT angiography protocol in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Young Jin; Shim, Jaemin; Sung, Ji Min; Han, Mi Eun; Kang, Dong Won; Kim, Ji-Ye; Choi, Byoung Wook; Chang, Hyuk-Jae

2011-04-01

To evaluate the prognostic outcome of cardiac computed tomography (CT) for prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease (CAD) and to explore the differential prognostic values of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and coronary CT angiography. Institutional review committee approval and informed consent were obtained. In 4338 patients who underwent 64-section CT for evaluation of suspected CAD, both CAC scoring and CT angiography were concurrently performed by using standard scanning protocols. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACEs were procured. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict MACEs. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for CAC scoring and coronary CT angiography. During the mean follow-up of 828 days ± 380, there were 105 MACEs, for an event rate of 3%. The presence of obstructive CAD at coronary CT angiography had independent prognostic value, which escalated according to the number of stenosed vessels (P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the superiority of coronary CT angiography to CAC scoring was demonstrated by a significantly greater area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.892 vs 0.810, P < .001), whereas no significant incremental value for the addition of CAC scoring to coronary CT angiography was established (AUC = 0.892 for coronary CT angiography alone vs 0.902 with addition of CAC scoring, P = .198). Coronary CT angiography is better than CAC scoring in predicting MACEs in low-risk patients suspected of having CAD. Furthermore, the current standard multisection CT protocol (coronary CT angiography combined with CAC scoring) has no incremental prognostic value compared with coronary CT angiography alone. Therefore, in terms of determining prognosis, CAC scoring may no longer need to be incorporated in the cardiac CT protocol in this population. © RSNA, 2011.

Validation of a Molecular and Pathological Model for Five-Year Mortality Risk in Patients with Early Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Bueno, Raphael; Hughes, Elisha; Wagner, Susanne; Gutin, Alexander S.; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Zheng, Yifan; Archer, Michael A.; Gustafson, Corinne; Jones, Joshua T.; Rushton, Kristen; Saam, Jennifer; Kim, Edward; Barberis, Massimo; Wistuba, Ignacio; Wenstrup, Richard J.; Wallace, William A.; Harrison, David J.

2015-01-01

Introduction: The aim of this study was to validate a molecular expression signature [cell cycle progression (CCP) score] that identifies patients with a higher risk of cancer-related death after surgical resection of early stage (I-II) lung adenocarcinoma in a large patient cohort and evaluate the effectiveness of combining CCP score and pathological stage for predicting lung cancer mortality. Methods: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded surgical tumor samples from 650 patients diagnosed with stage I and II adenocarcinoma who underwent definitive surgical treatment without adjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed for 31 proliferation genes by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The prognostic discrimination of the expression score was assessed by Cox proportional hazards analysis using 5-year lung cancer-specific death as primary outcome. Results: The CCP score was a significant predictor of lung cancer-specific mortality above clinical covariates [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46 per interquartile range (95% confidence interval = 1.12–1.90; p = 0.0050)]. The prognostic score, a combination of CCP score and pathological stage, was a more significant indicator of lung cancer mortality risk than pathological stage in the full cohort (HR = 2.01; p = 2.8 × 10−11) and in stage I patients (HR = 1.67; p = 0.00027). Using the 85th percentile of the prognostic score as a threshold, there was a significant difference in lung cancer survival between low-risk and high-risk patient groups (p = 3.8 × 10−7). Conclusions: This study validates the CCP score and the prognostic score as independent predictors of lung cancer death in patients with early stage lung adenocarcinoma treated with surgery alone. Patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma and a high prognostic score may be candidates for adjuvant therapy to reduce cancer-related mortality. PMID:25396679

Initial Assessment of the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool in a Heterogeneous Neurosurgical Patient Population.

PubMed

Piazza, Matthew; Sharma, Nikhil; Osiemo, Benjamin; McClintock, Scott; Missimer, Emily; Gardiner, Diana; Maloney, Eileen; Callahan, Danielle; Smith, J Lachlan; Welch, William; Schuster, James; Grady, M Sean; Malhotra, Neil R

2018-05-21

Bundled care payments are increasingly being explored for neurosurgical interventions. In this setting, skilled nursing facility (SNF) is less desirable from a cost perspective than discharge to home, underscoring the need for better preoperative prediction of postoperative disposition. To assess the capability of the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool (RAPT) and other preoperative variables to determine expected disposition prior to surgery in a heterogeneous neurosurgical cohort, through observational study. Patients aged 50 yr or more undergoing elective neurosurgery were enrolled from June 2016 to February 2017 (n = 623). Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative characteristics predictive of discharge disposition. Results from multivariate analysis were used to create novel grading scales for the prediction of discharge disposition that were subsequently compared to the RAPT Score using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. Higher RAPT Score significantly predicted home disposition (P < .001). Age 65 and greater, dichotomized RAPT walk score, and spinal surgery below L2 were independent predictors of SNF discharge in multivariate analysis. A grading scale utilizing these variables had superior discriminatory power between SNF and home/rehab discharge when compared with RAPT score alone (P = .004). Our analysis identified age, lower lumbar/lumbosacral surgery, and RAPT walk score as independent predictors of discharge to SNF, and demonstrated superior predictive power compared with the total RAPT Score when combined in a novel grading scale. These tools may identify patients who may benefit from expedited discharge to subacute care facilities and decrease inpatient hospital resource utilization following surgery.

Predictors of patients who will develop prolonged occult hypoperfusion following blunt trauma.

PubMed

Schulman, Andrew M; Claridge, Jeffrey A; Carr, Gordon; Diesen, Diana L; Young, Jeffrey S

2004-10-01

Prolonged occult hypoperfusion or POH (serum lactate >2.4 mmol/L persisting >12 hours from admission) represents a reversible risk factor for adverse outcomes following traumatic injury. We hypothesized that patients at increased risk for POH could be identified at the time of admission. Prospective data from adult trauma admissions between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000 were analyzed. Potential risk factors for POH were determined by univariate analysis (p < or =0.10= significant). Significant factors were tested in a logistic regression model (LR) (p < or =0.05= significant). The predictive ability of the LR was tested by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis (p < or =0.05= significant). Three hundred seventy-eight patients were analyzed, 129 with POH. Injury Severity Score (ISS), emergency department Glasgow Coma Scale score, hypotension, and the individual Abbreviated Injury Scale score (AIS) for Head (H), Abdominal/Pelvic Viscera (A) and Pelvis/Bony Extremity (P) were significantly associated with POH. LR demonstrated that ISS, A-AIS > or =3 and P-AIS > or =3 were independent predictors of POH (p <0.05). ROC analysis of the LR equation was statistically significant (Area=0.69, p <0.001). We identified factors at admission that placed patients at higher risk for developing POH. Select patients may benefit from rapid, aggressive monitoring and resuscitation, possibly preventing POH and its associated morbidity and mortality.

Prognostic value of inflammation-based scores in patients with osteosarcoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Bangjian; Huang, Yujing; Sun, Yuanjue; Zhang, Jianjun; Yao, Yang; Shen, Zan; Xiang, Dongxi; He, Aina

2016-01-01

Systemic inflammation responses have been associated with cancer development and progression. C-reactive protein (CRP), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), and neutrophil-platelet score (NPS) have been shown to be independent risk factors in various types of malignant tumors. This retrospective analysis of 162 osteosarcoma cases was performed to estimate their predictive value of survival in osteosarcoma. All statistical analyses were performed by SPSS statistical software. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was generated to set optimal thresholds; area under the curve (AUC) was used to show the discriminatory abilities of inflammation-based scores; Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to plot the survival curve; cox regression models were employed to determine the independent prognostic factors. The optimal cut-off points of NLR, PLR, and LMR were 2.57, 123.5 and 4.73, respectively. GPS and NLR had a markedly larger AUC than CRP, PLR and LMR. High levels of CRP, GPS, NLR, PLR, and low level of LMR were significantly associated with adverse prognosis (P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that GPS, NLR, and occurrence of metastasis were top risk factors associated with death of osteosarcoma patients. PMID:28008988

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Role of central obesity in risk stratification after an acute coronary event: does central obesity add prognostic value to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score in patients with acute coronary syndrome?

PubMed

Martins, Albino; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Gonçalves, Pierre; Correia, Adelino

2013-10-01

Accurate risk stratification is an important step in the initial management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and current guidelines recommend the use of risk scores, such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score (GRACE RS). Recent studies have suggested that abdominal obesity is associated with cardiovascular events in patients with ACS. However, little is known about the additional value of abdominal obesity beyond risk scores. The aim of our study was thus to assess whether waist circumference, a surrogate of abdominal adiposity, adds prognostic information to the GRACE RS. This was a retrospective cohort study of ACS patients admitted consecutively to a cardiac care unit between June 2009 and July 2010. The composite of all-cause mortality or myocardial reinfarction within six months of index hospitalization was used as the endpoint for the analysis. A total of 285 patients were studied, 96.1% admitted for myocardial infarction (with or without ST elevation) and 3.9% for unstable angina. At the end of the follow-up period, 10 patients had died and the composite endpoint had been reached in 27 patients (9.5%). More than 70% of the study population were obese or overweight, and abdominal obesity was present in 44.6%. The GRACE RS showed poor predictive accuracy (area under the curve 0.60), and most of the GRACE variables did not reach statistical significance in multivariate analysis. The addition of waist circumference to the GRACE RS did not improve its discriminatory performance. Abdominal obesity does not add prognostic information to the GRACE RS to predict six-month mortality or myocardial reinfarction.

MiR-137-derived polygenic risk: effects on cognitive performance in patients with schizophrenia and controls.

PubMed

Cosgrove, D; Harold, D; Mothersill, O; Anney, R; Hill, M J; Bray, N J; Blokland, G; Petryshen, T; Richards, A; Mantripragada, K; Owen, M; O'Donovan, M C; Gill, M; Corvin, A; Morris, D W; Donohoe, G

2017-01-24

Variants at microRNA-137 (MIR137), one of the most strongly associated schizophrenia risk loci identified to date, have been associated with poorer cognitive performance. As microRNA-137 is known to regulate the expression of ~1900 other genes, including several that are independently associated with schizophrenia, we tested whether this gene set was also associated with variation in cognitive performance. Our analysis was based on an empirically derived list of genes whose expression was altered by manipulation of MIR137 expression. This list was cross-referenced with genome-wide schizophrenia association data to construct individual polygenic scores. We then tested, in a sample of 808 patients and 192 controls, whether these risk scores were associated with altered performance on cognitive functions known to be affected in schizophrenia. A subgroup of healthy participants also underwent functional imaging during memory (n=108) and face processing tasks (n=83). Increased polygenic risk within the empirically derived miR-137 regulated gene score was associated with significantly lower performance on intelligence quotient, working memory and episodic memory. These effects were observed most clearly at a polygenic threshold of P=0.05, although significant results were observed at all three thresholds analyzed. This association was found independently for the gene set as a whole, excluding the schizophrenia-associated MIR137 SNP itself. Analysis of the spatial working memory fMRI task further suggested that increased risk score (thresholded at P=10 -5 ) was significantly associated with increased activation of the right inferior occipital gyrus. In conclusion, these data are consistent with emerging evidence that MIR137 associated risk for schizophrenia may relate to its broader downstream genetic effects.

Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Acute Urinary Retention After I-125 Prostate Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roeloffzen, Ellen M., E-mail: e.m.a.roeloffzen@umcutrecht.nl; Vulpen, Marco van; Battermann, Jan J.

Purpose: Acute urinary retention (AUR) after iodine-125 (I-125) prostate brachytherapy negatively influences long-term quality of life and therefore should be prevented. We aimed to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk of AUR. Methods: Using the preoperative data of 714 consecutive patients who underwent I-125 prostate brachytherapy between 2005 and 2008 at our department, we modeled the probability of AUR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of a set of pretreatment predictors and the additional value of a new risk factor (the extent of prostate protrusion into the bladder). The performance of the finalmore » model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. Results: Of the 714 patients, 57 patients (8.0%) developed AUR after implantation. Multivariate analysis showed that the combination of prostate volume, IPSS score, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment and the extent of prostate protrusion contribute to the prediction of AUR. The discriminative value (receiver operator characteristic area, ROC) of the basic model (including prostate volume, International Prostate Symptom Score, and neoadjuvant hormonal treatment) to predict the development of AUR was 0.70. The addition of prostate protrusion significantly increased the discriminative power of the model (ROC 0.82). Calibration of this final model was good. The nomogram showed that among patients with a low sum score (<18 points), the risk of AUR was only 0%-5%. However, in patients with a high sum score (>35 points), the risk of AUR was more than 20%. Conclusion: This nomogram is a useful tool for physicians to predict the risk of AUR after I-125 prostate brachytherapy. The nomogram can aid in individualized treatment decision-making and patient counseling.« less

Risk adjustment as basis for rational benchmarking: the example of colon carcinoma.

PubMed

Ptok, Henry; Marusch, Frank; Schmidt, Uwe; Gastinger, Ingo; Wenisch, Hubertus J C; Lippert, Hans

2011-01-01

The results of resection of colorectal carcinoma can vary greatly from one hospital to another. However, this does not necessarily reflect differences in the quality of treatment. The purpose of this study was to compare various tools for the risk-adjusted assessment of treatment results after resection of colorectal carcinoma within the context of hospital benchmarking. On the basis of a data pool provided by a multicentric observation study of patients with colon cancer, the postoperative in-hospital mortality rates at two high-volume hospitals ("A" and "B") were compared. After univariate comparison, risk-adjusted comparison of postoperative mortality was performed by logistic regression analysis (LReA), propensity-score analysis (PScA), and the CR-POSSUM score. Postoperative complications were compared by LReA and PScA. Although postoperative mortality differed significantly (P = 0.041) in univariate comparison of hospitals A and B (2.9% vs. 6.4%), no significant difference was found by LReA or PScA. Similarly, the observed mortality at these did not differ significantly from the mortality estimated by the CR-POSSUM score (hospital A, 2.9%/4.9%, P = 0.298; hospital B, 6.4%/6.5%, P = 1.000). Significant differences were seen in risk-adjusted comparison of most postoperative complications (by both LReA and PScA), but there were no differences in the rates of relaparotomy or anastomotic leakage that required surgery. For the hard outcome variable "postoperative mortality," none of the three risk adjustment procedures showed any difference between the hospitals. The CR-POSSUM score can be regarded as the most practicable tool for risk-adjusted comparison of the outcome of colon-carcinoma resection in clinical benchmarking.

Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

2018-05-01

Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population.

PubMed

Isma'eel, Hussain A; Almedawar, Mohamad M; Harbieh, Bernard; Alajaji, Wissam; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hourani, Mukbil; El-Merhi, Fadi; Alam, Samir; Abchee, Antoine

2015-10-01

The use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models. Data was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated. In accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS. In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5-6% and spares 70-80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made.

Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population

PubMed Central

Isma’eel, Hussain A.; Almedawar, Mohamad M.; Harbieh, Bernard; Alajaji, Wissam; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hourani, Mukbil; El-Merhi, Fadi; Alam, Samir; Abchee, Antoine

2015-01-01

Background The use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models. Methods Data was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated. Results In accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS. Conclusion In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5–6% and spares 70–80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made. PMID:26557741

Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score.

PubMed

Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A

2014-09-01

Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and <6 or >13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P < 0.001). A simplified score was created, ranging from 0 to 6 points. Respective incidences of POV were 5%, 6%, 13%, 21%, 36%, 48%, and 52% when the risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

2017-09-01

Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

Development, Validation and Deployment of a Real Time 30 Day Hospital Readmission Risk Assessment Tool in the Maine Healthcare Information Exchange.

PubMed

Hao, Shiying; Wang, Yue; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Zheng, Le; Luo, Jin; Hu, Zhongkai; Fu, Changlin; Dai, Dorothy; Wang, Yicheng; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-01

Identifying patients at risk of a 30-day readmission can help providers design interventions, and provide targeted care to improve clinical effectiveness. This study developed a risk model to predict a 30-day inpatient hospital readmission for patients in Maine, across all payers, all diseases and all demographic groups. Our objective was to develop a model to determine the risk for inpatient hospital readmission within 30 days post discharge. All patients within the Maine Health Information Exchange (HIE) system were included. The model was retrospectively developed on inpatient encounters between January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 from 24 randomly chosen hospitals, and then prospectively validated on inpatient encounters from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 using all HIE patients. A risk assessment tool partitioned the entire HIE population into subgroups that corresponded to probability of hospital readmission as determined by a corresponding positive predictive value (PPV). An overall model c-statistic of 0.72 was achieved. The total 30-day readmission rates in low (score of 0-30), intermediate (score of 30-70) and high (score of 70-100) risk groupings were 8.67%, 24.10% and 74.10%, respectively. A time to event analysis revealed the higher risk groups readmitted to a hospital earlier than the lower risk groups. Six high-risk patient subgroup patterns were revealed through unsupervised clustering. Our model was successfully integrated into the statewide HIE to identify patient readmission risk upon admission and daily during hospitalization or for 30 days subsequently, providing daily risk score updates. The risk model was validated as an effective tool for predicting 30-day readmissions for patients across all payer, disease and demographic groups within the Maine HIE. Exposing the key clinical, demographic and utilization profiles driving each patient's risk of readmission score may be useful to providers in developing individualized post discharge care plans.

Dietary Inflammatory Index, Bone Mineral Density, and Risk of Fracture in Postmenopausal Women: Results From the Women's Health Initiative

PubMed Central

Orchard, Tonya; Yildiz, Vedat; Steck, Susan E; Hébert, James R; Ma, Yunsheng; Cauley, Jane A; Li, Wenjun; Mossavar-Rahmani, Yasmin; Johnson, Karen C; Sattari, Maryam; LeBoff, Meryl; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Jackson, Rebecca D

2017-01-01

Previous studies suggest that bone loss and fracture risk are associated with higher inflammatory milieu, potentially modifiable by diet. The primary objective of this analysis was to evaluate the association of the dietary inflammatory index (DII), a measure of the inflammatory potential of diet, with risk of hip, lower-arm, and total fracture using longitudinal data from the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and Clinical Trials. Secondarily, we evaluated changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and DII scores. DII scores were calculated from baseline food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) completed by 160,191 participants (mean age 63 years) without history of hip fracture at enrollment. Year 3 FFQs were used to calculate a DII change score. Fractures were reported at least annually; hip fractures were confirmed by medical records. Hazard ratios for fractures were computed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, further stratified by age and race/ethnicity. Pairwise comparisons of changes in hip BMD, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry from baseline, year 3, and year 6 were analyzed by quartile (Q1 = least inflammatory diet) of baseline DII scores in a subgroup of women (n = 10,290). Mean DII score improved significantly over 3 years (p < 0.01), but change was not associated with fracture risk. Baseline DII score was only associated with hip fracture risk in younger white women (HR Q4,1.48; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.01; p = 0.01). There were no significant associations among white women older than 63 years or other races/ethnicities. Women with the least inflammatory DII scores had less loss of hip BMD (p = 0.01) by year 6, despite lower baseline hip BMD, versus women with the most inflammatory DII scores. In conclusion, a less inflammatory dietary pattern was associated with less BMD loss in postmenopausal women. A more inflammatory diet was associated with increased hip fracture risk only in white women younger than 63 years. PMID:28019686

Phobic anxiety and ischaemic heart disease.

PubMed

Haines, A P; Imeson, J D; Meade, T W

1987-08-01

A prospective study of the relation between scores on the six subscales of the Crown-Crisp experiential index and subsequent incidence of ischaemic heart disease was undertaken among participants in the Northwick Park heart study. Results from 1457 white men aged 40-64 at recruitment showed that phobic anxiety was strongly related to subsequent major ischaemic heart disease (fatal and non-fatal events combined) when other associated variables were taken into account. The phobic anxiety score alone remained significantly associated with ischaemic heart disease when scores on all the subscales were included in the analysis. Phobic anxiety seemed to be particularly associated with fatal ischaemic heart disease but was not associated with deaths from other causes and was no higher in those with a pre-existing myocardial infarction at recruitment than in those without. There was a consistent increase in risk of fatal ischaemic heart disease with score on the phobic anxiety subscale. The relative risk for those whose score was 5 and above was 3.77 (95% confidence interval 1.64 to 8.64) compared with those whose score was 0 or 1. The 49 participants with evidence of myocardial infarction at recruitment had higher scores on the subscales for free floating anxiety and functional somatic complaint. The Crown-Crisp experiential index is simple to fill out and acceptable to patients. When the results are combined with other known risk factors it may be of use in defining high risk subjects and in planning strategies for prevention.

The Relationship Between the Dietary Inflammatory Index and Incident Frailty: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Stubbs, Brendon; Hébert, James R; Cesari, Matteo; Schofield, Patricia; Soysal, Pinar; Maggi, Stefania; Veronese, Nicola

2018-01-01

Inflammation is key risk factor for several conditions in the elderly. However, the relationship between inflammation and frailty is still unclear. We investigated whether higher dietary inflammatory index (DII) scores were associated with higher incidence of frailty in a cohort of North Americans. Longitudinal, with a follow-up of 8 years. Osteoarthritis Initiative. A total of 4421 participants with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis. DII scores were calculated using the validated Block Brief 2000 Food-Frequency Questionnaire and categorized into sex-specific quartiles. Frailty was defined as 2 out of 3 of the criteria of the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture study (ie, weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times, and poor energy). The strength of the association between baseline DII score and incident frailty was assessed through a Cox's regression analysis, adjusted for potential baseline confounders, and reported as hazard ratios. A total of 4421 community-dwelling participants (2564 female participants; mean age: 61.3 years) without frailty at baseline were identified from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. During 8 years of follow-up, 356 individuals developed frailty (8.2%). Using Cox's regression analysis, adjusting for 11 potential confounders, participants with the highest DII score (quartile 4) had a significantly higher risk of experiencing frailty (hazard ratio 1.37; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.89; P = .04) compared with participants with the lowest DII score (quartile 1). The association between DII score and frailty was significant only in men. Higher DII scores, indicating a more proinflammatory diet, are associated with higher incidence of frailty, particularly in men. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Occupational Voice Demand and Patient-Rated Impairment in Predicting Voice Therapy Adherence.

PubMed

Ebersole, Barbara; Soni, Resha S; Moran, Kathleen; Lango, Miriam; Devarajan, Karthik; Jamal, Nausheen

2018-05-01

Examine the relationship among the severity of patient-perceived voice impairment, perceptual dysphonia severity, occupational voice demand, and voice therapy adherence. Identify clinical predictors of increased risk for therapy nonadherence. A retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with a chief complaint of persistent dysphonia at an interdisciplinary voice center was done. The Voice Handicap Index-10 (VHI-10) and the Voice-Related Quality of Life (V-RQOL) survey scores, clinician rating of dysphonia severity using the Grade score from the Grade, Roughness Breathiness, Asthenia, and Strain scale, occupational voice demand, and patient demographics were tested for associations with therapy adherence, defined as completion of the treatment plan. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was performed to establish thresholds for nonadherence risk. Of 166 patients evaluated, 111 were recommended for voice therapy. The therapy nonadherence rate was 56%. Occupational voice demand category, VHI-10, and V-RQOL scores were the only factors significantly correlated with therapy adherence (P < 0.0001, P = 0.018, and P = 0.008, respectively). CART analysis found that patients with low or no occupational voice demand are significantly more likely to be nonadherent with therapy than those with high occupational voice demand (P < 0.001). Furthermore, a VHI-10 score of ≤29 or a V-RQOL score of >40 is a significant cutoff point for predicting therapy nonadherence (P < 0.011 and P < 0.004, respectively). Occupational voice demand and patient perception of impairment are significantly and independently correlated with therapy adherence. A VHI-10 score of ≤9 or a V-RQOL score of >40 is a significant cutoff point for predicting nonadherence risk. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comorbidity, Use of Common Medications, and Risk of Early Death in Patients with Localized or Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Nieder, Carsten; Dalhaug, Astrid; Pawinski, Adam; Aandahl, Gro; Norum, Jan

2011-01-01

In this paper, we analyze predictive factors for early death from comorbidity (defined as death within 3 years from diagnosis and unrelated to prostate cancer) in patients with localized or locally advanced prostate cancer. Such information may guide individually tailored treatment or observation strategies, and help to avoid overtreatment. We retrospectively analyzed baseline parameters including information on comorbidity and medication use among 177 patients (median age at diagnosis 70 years). Actuarial survival analyses were performed. During the first 3 years, two patients (1.1%) died from progressive prostate cancer after they had developed distant metastases. The risk of dying from other causes (3.4%) was numerically higher, although not to a statistically significant degree. Six patients who died from other causes had age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) scores ≥5 (CCI is a sum score where each comorbid condition is assigned with a score depending on the risk of dying associated with this condition). The main comorbidity was cardiovascular disease. The two statistically significant predictive factors were medication use and age-adjusted CCI score ≥5 (univariate analysis). However, medication use was not an independent factor as all patients with age-adjusted CCI score ≥5 also used at least one class of medication. Median survival was 30 months in patients with age-adjusted CCI score ≥5. Prediction of non-prostate cancer death may be important to prevent overtreatment in patients who are more threatened by comorbidity. Our data suggest that simple parameters such as use of medications vs. none, or presence of serious cardiac disease vs. none, are not sufficient, and that age-adjusted CCI scores outperform the other factors included in our analysis. PMID:21666987

The HEART score for early rule out of acute coronary syndromes in the emergency department: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Van Den Berg, Patricia; Body, Richard

2018-03-01

The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the current evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting with undifferentiated chest pain to the emergency department. Two investigators independently searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases between 2008 and May 2016 identifying eligible studies providing diagnostic accuracy data on the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events as the primary outcome. For the 12 studies meeting inclusion criteria, study characteristics and diagnostic accuracy measures were systematically extracted and study quality assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool. After quality assessment, nine studies including data from 11,217 patients were combined in the meta-analysis applying a generalised linear mixed model approach with random effects assumption (Stata 13.1). In total, 15.4% of patients (range 7.3-29.1%) developed major adverse cardiac events after a mean of 6 weeks' follow-up. Among patients categorised as 'low risk' and suitable for early discharge (HEART score 0-3), the pooled incidence of 'missed' major adverse cardiac events was 1.6%. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events were 96.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 94.0-98.2%) and 47.0% (95% CI 41.0-53.5%), respectively. Patients with a HEART score of 0-3 are at low risk of incident major adverse cardiac events. As 3.3% of patients with major adverse cardiac events are 'missed' by the HEART score, clinicians must ask whether this risk is acceptably low for clinical implementation.

Retrospective Evaluation Reveals That Long-term Androgen Deprivation Therapy Improves Cause-Specific and Overall Survival in the Setting of Dose-Escalated Radiation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Felix Y., E-mail: ffeng@med.umich.edu; Department of Radiation Oncology, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Blas, Kevin

2013-05-01

Purpose: To evaluate the role of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and duration for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated RT (minimum 75 Gy) with or without ADT was performed. The relationship between ADT use and duration with biochemical failure (BF), metastatic failure (MF), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), non-prostate cancer death (NPCD), and overall survival (OS) was assessed as a function of pretreatment characteristics, comorbid medical illness, and treatment using Fine and Gray's cumulative incidence methodology. Results: The median follow-up time was 64more » months. In men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network defined high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated RT, on univariate analysis, both metastasis (P<.0001; hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.67; cumulative incidence at 60 months 13% vs 35%) and PCSM (P=.015; hazard ratio 0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0; cumulative incidence at 60 months 6% vs 11%) were improved with the use of ADT. On multivariate analysis for all high-risk patients, Gleason score was the strongest negative prognostic factor, and long-term ADT (LTAD) improved MF (P=.002), PCSM (P=.034), and OS (P=.001). In men with prostate cancer and Gleason scores 8 to 10, on multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk features, there was a duration-dependent improvement in BF, metastasis, PCSM, and OS, all favoring LTAD in comparison with STAD or RT alone. Conclusion: For men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated EBRT, this retrospective study suggests that the combination of LTAD and RT provided a significant improvement in clinical outcome, which was especially true for those with Gleason scores of 8 to 10.« less

Predicting survival using clinical risk scores and non-HLA immunogenetics.

PubMed

Balavarca, Y; Pearce, K; Norden, J; Collin, M; Jackson, G; Holler, E; Dressel, R; Kolb, H-J; Greinix, H; Socie, G; Toubert, A; Rocha, V; Gluckman, E; Hromadnikova, I; Sedlacek, P; Wolff, D; Holtick, U; Dickinson, A; Bickeböller, H

2015-11-01

Previous studies of non-histocompatibility leukocyte antigen (HLA) gene single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on subgroups of patients undergoing allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) revealed an association with transplant outcome. This study further evaluated the association of non-HLA polymorphisms with overall survival in a cohort of 762 HSCT patients using data on 26 polymorphisms in 16 non-HLA genes. When viewed in addition to an already established clinical risk score (EBMT-score), three polymorphisms: rs8177374 in the gene for MyD88-adapter-like (MAL; P=0.026), rs9340799 in the oestrogen receptor gene (ESR; P=0.003) and rs1800795 in interleukin-6 (IL-6; P=0.007) were found to be associated with reduced overall survival, whereas the haplo-genotype (ACC/ACC) in IL-10 was protective (P=0.02). The addition of these non-HLA polymorphisms in a Cox regression model alongside the EBMT-score improved discrimination between risk groups and increased the level of prediction compared with the EBMT-score alone (gain in prediction capability for EBMT-genetic-score 10.8%). Results also demonstrated how changes in clinical practice through time have altered the effects of non-HLA analysis. The study illustrates the significance of non-HLA genotyping prior to HSCT and the importance of further investigation into non-HLA gene polymorphisms in risk prediction.

History of childhood trauma as risk factors to suicide risk in major depression.

PubMed

Dias de Mattos Souza, Luciano; Lopez Molina, Mariane; Azevedo da Silva, Ricardo; Jansen, Karen

2016-12-30

The aim of this study was to compare childhood trauma scores domains between Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) patients with and without suicide risk. This is cross-sectional study including a clinical sample of adults (18-60 years) diagnosed with MDD through the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview Plus version (MINI Plus). The Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) was also used to verify types of trauma scores: abuse (emotional, physical, and sexual) and neglect (emotional and physical). Adjusted analysis was performed by linear regression. The sample was composed to 473 patients, suicide risk was observed in 16.3% of them. Suicide risk was independently associated with emotional abuse and neglect and sexual abuse, but not with physical abuse and neglect. Different domains of childhood trauma are associated with suicide risk in MDD population and emotional trauma should be considered a risk factor for suicide risk in MDD patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

AIMS baby movement scale application in high-risk infants early intervention analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Y; Shi, J-P; Li, Y-H; Yang, W-H; Tian, Y-J; Gao, J; Li, S-J

2016-05-01

We investigated the application of Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) in screening motor development delay in the follow-up of high-risk infants who were discharged from NICU, to explain the state of infants' motor development and propose early individualized intervention. The study design was a randomized, single-blind trial by selecting patients between April 2015 and November 2015 in our hospital, children nerve recovery branch clinics and 77 cases of high-risk infants. We randomly divided the patients into observation group (39 cases) and control group (38 cases). To evaluate the application with AIMS, observation group was based on evaluation results for the first time to give rehabilitation training plan making, early intervention, control group according to the growth and development milestone in order to guide parents to take family training interval of 3 months. While comparing the two groups of high-risk infants before the intervention, the months of age, gender, risk factors, it was found that the AIMS scores, each position AIMS scores did not show a significant difference in percentile (p>0.05). There was also no significant difference between two groups in the seat and stand AIMS scores before and after intervention (p>0.05). However, the comparison of two groups of high-risk infants after intervention in comparison showed that the observation group supine AIMS scores and AIMS scores were significantly higher than the control group (p<0.05). Prone position AIMS scores observation group was also significantly higher than that of the control group (p<0.01). The corresponding percentile for two groups after the intervention of AIMS scores was less than 10% of cases, which was significantly lower in the observation group (p<0.01). AIMS can predict the development delay in high-risk infants, for improving the early hypernymic diagnosis and intervention.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2017-09-20

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed an overall 40% increased risk of CRC with moderate evidence of heterogeneity [relative risk (RR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 1.55; I ² = 69%, p < 0.001]. When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CRC of 7% for a 1-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the four prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet in preventing CRC. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CRC.

First-line endoscopic treatment with over-the-scope clips significantly improves the primary failure and rebleeding rates in high-risk gastrointestinal bleeding: A single-center experience with 100 cases

PubMed Central

Richter-Schrag, Hans-Jürgen; Glatz, Torben; Walker, Christine; Fischer, Andreas; Thimme, Robert

2016-01-01

AIM To evaluate rebleeding, primary failure (PF) and mortality of patients in whom over-the-scope clips (OTSCs) were used as first-line and second-line endoscopic treatment (FLET, SLET) of upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB, LGIB). METHODS A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database identified all patients with UGIB and LGIB in a tertiary endoscopic referral center of the University of Freiburg, Germany, from 04-2012 to 05-2016 (n = 93) who underwent FLET and SLET with OTSCs. The complete Rockall risk scores were calculated from patients with UGIB. The scores were categorized as < or ≥ 7 and were compared with the original Rockall data. Differences between FLET and SLET were calculated. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to evaluate the factors that influenced rebleeding after OTSC placement. RESULTS Primary hemostasis and clinical success of bleeding lesions (without rebleeding) was achieved in 88/100 (88%) and 78/100 (78%), respectively. PF was significantly lower when OTSCs were applied as FLET compared to SLET (4.9% vs 23%, P = 0.008). In multivariate analysis, patients who had OTSC placement as SLET had a significantly higher rebleeding risk compared to those who had FLET (OR 5.3; P = 0.008). Patients with Rockall risk scores ≥ 7 had a significantly higher in-hospital mortality compared to those with scores < 7 (35% vs 10%, P = 0.034). No significant differences were observed in patients with scores < or ≥ 7 in rebleeding and rebleeding-associated mortality. CONCLUSION Our data show for the first time that FLET with OTSC might be the best predictor to successfully prevent rebleeding of gastrointestinal bleeding compared to SLET. The type of treatment determines the success of primary hemostasis or primary failure. PMID:27895403

Dietary Inflammatory Potential Score and Risk of Breast Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zahedi, Hoda; Djalalinia, Shirin; Sadeghi, Omid; Asayesh, Hamid; Noroozi, Mehdi; Gorabi, Armita Mahdavi; Mohammadi, Rasool; Qorbani, Mostafa

2018-02-07

Several studies have been conducted on the relationship between dietary inflammatory potential (DIP) and breast cancer. However, the findings are conflicting. This systematic review and meta-analysis summarizes the findings on the association between DIP and the risk of breast cancer. We used relevant keywords and searched online international electronic databases, including PubMed and NLM Gateway (for Medline), Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), and Scopus for articles published through February 2017. All cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis. Meta-analysis was performed using the random effects meta-analysis method to address heterogeneity among studies. Findings were analyzed statistically. Nine studies were included in the present systematic review and meta-analysis. The total sample size of these studies was 296,102, and the number of participants varied from 1453 to 122,788. The random effects meta-analysis showed a positive and significant association between DIP and the risk of breast cancer (pooled odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.27). The pooled effect size was not statistically significant because of the type of studies, including cohort (pooled relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.10) and case-control (pooled odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-2.37) studies. We found a significant and positive association between higher DIP score and risk of breast cancer. Modifying inflammatory characteristics of diet can substantially reduce the risk of breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of depressive symptoms in older Japanese primiparas at 1 month post-partum: A risk-stratified analysis.

PubMed

Iwata, Hiroko; Mori, Emi; Tsuchiya, Miyako; Sakajo, Akiko; Maehara, Kunie; Ozawa, Harumi; Morita, Akiko; Maekawa, Tomoko; Aoki, Kyoko; Tamakoshi, Koji

2016-01-01

Older maternal age has become more common in Japan. Studies suggest that older maternal age and primiparity are associated with post-partum depression. The present study aimed to identify predictors of post-partum depression in older Japanese primiparas at 1 month post-partum. Participants were 479 primiparas aged 35 years and over, drawn from a prospective cohort study. Data were collected using self-report questionnaires. Depression was measured with the Japanese version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted on binary outcome variables of depression at 1 month post-partum, along with a stratified analysis based on the risk status of depression. Five predictors were identified: (i) the depression score during hospital stay; (ii) financial burden; (iii) dissatisfaction with appraisal support; (iv) physical burden in daily life; and (v) concerns about infant caretaking. Stratified analysis identified dissatisfaction with instrumental support in the low-risk group, and the Child-care Value Scale score as unique predictors in the high-risk group. These results highlight the importance of early assessment of depressive symptoms and the provision of continuous care. © 2015 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

Does knowledge of coronary artery calcium affect cardiovascular risk perception, likelihood of taking action, and health-promoting behavior change?

PubMed

Johnson, Jennie E; Gulanick, Meg; Penckofer, Sue; Kouba, Joanne

2015-01-01

Evidence indicates that a healthy lifestyle can reduce cardiovascular disease risk, yet many people engage in unhealthy behaviors. New technologies such as coronary artery calcium (CAC) screening detect atherosclerosis before clinical disease is manifested. Knowledge of an abnormal finding could provide the "teachable moment" to enhance motivation for change. The aim of this study was to examine how knowledge of CAC score affects risk perception, likelihood of taking action, and health-promoting behavior change in persons at high risk for cardiovascular disease. This study used a descriptive prospective design with 174 high-risk adults (≥3 major risk factors) recruited at a radiology center offering CAC scans. Baseline self-report surveys using the Perception of Risk of Heart Disease Scale, the Benefits and Barriers Scale, the Quality of Life Index, and the Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II were completed immediately after a screening CAC scan but before results were known. Follow-up occurred 3 months later using mailed packets. Participants' mean age was 58 years; 62% were men, 89% were white, and most were well educated. There was no significant change in risk perception scores over time or between groups, except for a positive interaction in the moderate-risk group (CAC scores of 101-400) (P = .004). Quality of life remained unchanged. Health-promoting behavior changes increased in all groups over time (P < .001). McNemar χ² analysis indicated that risk reduction medication use increased in all groups, with a significant increase in statin (P < .001) and aspirin (P < .001) intake. Predictors of behavior change were perceived barriers (β = -.41; P < .001) and quality of life (β = .44; P < .001). Knowledge of CAC score does impact risk perception for some at-risk groups. This knowledge does enhance motivation for behavior change. Knowledge of CAC score does not impact quality of life. It is hoped that through improved understanding of the effect of CAC scoring on behavior change, nurses can better assist patients to modify behaviors during teachable moments.

Impulsivity, aggression and suicide risk among male schizophrenia patients.

PubMed

Iancu, Iulian; Bodner, Ehud; Roitman, Suzana; Piccone Sapir, Anna; Poreh, Amir; Kotler, Moshe

2010-01-01

Impulsivity has been shown to be a major variable in the etiology of suicide and aggression, but has not been researched as much in the schizophrenic population, which is characterized by serious suicide and aggression risks. 68 male schizophrenia patients responded to a battery of measures including the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), the impulsivity control scale (IS), the Suicide Risk Scale (SRS) and the Overt Aggression Scale. We divided our subjects into those who received scores above and below the median on the IS. The high-impulsivity group had higher present and past rates of suicidal ideation and showed a trend for more lifetime suicidal attempts than the low-impulsivity group. The impulsivity score correlated positively with the SRS score and with some of the scores of the PANSS (the positive symptoms score, the general psychopathology score and the total score). A multiple regression analysis revealed that an older age, higher levels of aggression, high impulsivity and an elevated score on the general psychopathology subscale of the PANSS contributed positively and significantly to the explained variance of the SRS. Our study supports the contention that high impulsivity in schizophrenia patients is significant in the etiology of suicide in schizophrenia. However, the relationship between impulsivity and aggression in schizophrenia patients, and also the amelioration of impulsivity by pharmacological interventions, require further study. Copyright (c) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: The CHARGE risk score project

PubMed Central

Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B.; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F.; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G.; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; DeStefano, Anita L.; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A.; DeCarli, Charles; Ikram, M. Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, WT; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS), prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods The study includes four population-based cohorts with 2,047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged 55 years and older, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRS were constructed with 324 SNPs implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with Area under the curve (AUC) statistics comparing the GRS to age sex, and FSRS models, and with reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke (IS). Results In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the FSRS, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (All stroke: Δjoint AUC =0.016, p-value=2.3*10-6; IS: Δ joint AUC =0.021, p-value=3.7*10−7), although the overall AUC remained low. In all studies there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (p-values <10−4). Conclusions The SNPs associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared to the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke. PMID:24436238

Risk Factor Analysis for AKI Including Laboratory Indicators: a Nationwide Multicenter Study of Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Nie, Sasa; Feng, Zhe; Tang, Li; Wang, Xiaolong; He, Yani; Fang, Jingai; Li, Suhua; Yang, Yibin; Mao, Huijuan; Jiao, Jundong; Liu, Wenhu; Cao, Ning; Wang, Wenge; Sun, Jifeng; Shao, Fengmin; Li, Wenge; He, Qiang; Jiang, Hongli; Lin, Hongli; Fu, Ping; Zhang, Xinzhou; Liu, Yinghong; Wu, Yonggui; Xi, ChunSheng; Liang, Meng; Qu, Zhijie; Zhu, Jun; Wu, Guangli; Zheng, Yali; Na, Yu; Li, Ying; Li, Wei; Cai, Guangyan; Chen, Xiangmei

2017-01-01

Risk factor studies for acute kidney injury (AKI) in China are lacking, especially those regarding non-traditional risk factors, such as laboratory indicators. All adult patients admitted to 38 tertiary and 22 secondary hospitals in China in any one month between July and December 2014 were surveyed. AKI patients were screened according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes' definition of AKI. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for AKI, and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk of in-hospital mortality for AKI patients; additionally, a propensity score analysis was used to reconfirm the risk factors among laboratory indicators for mortality. The morbidity of AKI was 0.97%. Independent risk factors for AKI were advancing age, male gender, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. All-cause mortality was 16.5%. The predictors of mortality in AKI patients were advancing age, tumor, higher uric acid level and increases in Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The hazard ratio (HR) for mortality with uric acid levels > 9.1 mg/dl compared with ≤ 5.2 mg/dl was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.58) for the AKI patients as a group, and was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.42) for a propensity score-matched set. In addition to traditional risk factors, uric acid level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after AKI. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

High truncated-O-glycan score predicts adverse clinical outcome in patients with localized clear-cell renal cell carcinoma after surgery.

PubMed

NguyenHoang, SonTung; Liu, Yidong; Xu, Le; Zhou, Lin; Chang, Yuan; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Zheng; Lin, Zongming; Xu, Jiejie

2017-10-03

Truncated O-glycans, including Tn-antigen, sTn-antigen, T-antigen, sT-antigen, are incomplete glycosylated structures and their expression occur frequently in tumor tissue. The study aims to evaluate the abundance of each truncated O-glycans and its clinical significance in postoperative patients with localized clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). We used immunohistochemical testing to analyze the expression of truncated O-glycans in tumor specimens from 401 patients with localized ccRCC. Truncated-O-glycan score was built by integrating the expression level of Tn-, sTn- and sT-antigen. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression analysis were done to compare clinical outcomes in subgroups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was applied to assess the impact of prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The results identified Tn-, sTn-, sT-antigen as independent prognosticators. The OS and RFS were shortened among the 198 (49.4%) patients with high Truncated-O-glycan score than among the 203 (50.6%) patients with low score (hazard ratio for OS, 7.060; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.765 to 18.027; p <0.001; for RFS, 4.612; 95% CI: 2.141 to 9.931; p <0.001). There is no difference between low-risk patients and high-risk patients in low score group ( p = 0.987). High-risk patients with low score showed a better prognosis than low-risk patient with high score ( p = 0.029). The Truncated-O-glycan score showed better prognostic value for OS (AUC: 0.739, p = 0.003) and RFS (AUC: 0.719, p = 0.003) than TNM stage. In summary, the high Truncated-O-glycan score could predict adverse clinical outcome in localized ccRCC patients after surgery.

High FIB-4 index as an independent risk factor of prevalent chronic kidney disease in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Xu, Huang-Wei; Hsu, Yung-Chien; Chang, Chia-Hao; Wei, Kuo-Liang; Lin, Chun-Liang

2016-03-01

Growing evidence suggests that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is linked to an increased risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD); liver fibrosis with biopsy-proven NAFLD has also been shown to associate with an increased risk of CKD. This study compares the diagnostic performance of simple noninvasive tests in identifying prevalent CKD among individuals with ultrasonography-diagnosed NAFLD. A total of 755 with ultrasonography-diagnosed NAFLD were included. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and noninvasive markers for hepatic fibrosis: aspartate transaminase to alanine transaminase ratio (AAR), aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4 score, NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and BARD score were assessed. Binary logistic regression to generate a propensity score and receiver operating characteristic curves were developed for each of the noninvasive markers for predicting CKD, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was greatest for FIB-4 score (0.750), followed by NFS (0.710), AAR (0.594), APRI (0.587), and BARD score (0.561). A cut-off value of 1.100 for FIB-4 score gave a sensitivity of 68.85% and a specificity of 71.07% for predicting CKD. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 37.50 and 90.05%, respectively. In multiple logistic regression analysis, only FIB-4 score ≧1.100 (OR 2.660, 95% CI 1.201-5.889; p = .016), older age, higher diastolic blood pressure and higher uric acid were independent predictors of CKD. High noninvasive fibrosis score is associated with an increased risk of prevalent CKD; the FIB-4 is the better predictor. With a cut-off value of 1.100 for FIB-4, it is useful in excluding the presence of CKD in patients with NAFLD.

Baseline characteristics predict risk of progression and response to combined medical therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH).

PubMed

Kozminski, Michael A; Wei, John T; Nelson, Jason; Kent, David M

2015-02-01

To better risk stratify patients, using baseline characteristics, to help optimise decision-making for men with moderate-to-severe lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) through a secondary analysis of the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms (MTOPS) trial. After review of the literature, we identified potential baseline risk factors for BPH progression. Using bivariate tests in a secondary analysis of MTOPS data, we determined which variables retained prognostic significance. We then used these factors in Cox proportional hazard modelling to: i) more comprehensively risk stratify the study population based on pre-treatment parameters and ii) to determine which risk strata stood to benefit most from medical intervention. In all, 3047 men were followed in MTOPS for a mean of 4.5 years. We found varying risks of progression across quartiles. Baseline BPH Impact Index score, post-void residual urine volume, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, age, American Urological Association Symptom Index score, and maximum urinary flow rate were found to significantly correlate with overall BPH progression in multivariable analysis. Using baseline factors permits estimation of individual patient risk for clinical progression and the benefits of medical therapy. A novel clinical decision tool based on these analyses will allow clinicians to weigh patient-specific benefits against possible risks of adverse effects for a given patient. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

Increased Arterial Stiffness in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Patients at Low Risk for Cardiovascular Disease: A Cross-Sectional Controlled Study

PubMed Central

Sacre, Karim; Escoubet, Brigitte; Pasquet, Blandine; Chauveheid, Marie-Paule; Zennaro, Maria-Christina; Tubach, Florence; Papo, Thomas

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of death in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Although the risk for cardiovascular events in patients with SLE is significant, the absolute number of events per year in any given cohort remains small. Thus, CVD risks stratification in patients with SLE focuses on surrogate markers for atherosclerosis at an early stage, such as reduced elasticity of arteries. Our study was designed to determine whether arterial stiffness is increased in SLE patients at low risk for CVD and analyze the role for traditional and non-traditional CVD risk factors on arterial stiffness in SLE. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was prospectively assessed as a measure of arterial stiffness in 41 SLE patients and 35 controls (CTL). Adjustment on age or Framingham score was performed using a logistic regression model. Factors associated with PWV were identified separately in SLE patients and in controls using Pearson's correlation coefficient for univariate analysis and multiple linear regression for multivariate analysis. SLE patients and controls displayed a low 10-year risk for CVD according to Framingham score (1.8±3.6% in SLE vs 1.6±2.8% in CTL, p = 0.46). Pulse wave velocity was, however, higher in SLE patients (7.1±1.6 m/s) as compared to controls (6.3±0.8 m/s; p = 0.01, after Framingham score adjustment) and correlated with internal carotid wall thickness (p = 0.0017). In multivariable analysis, only systolic blood pressure (p = 0.0005) and cumulative dose of glucocorticoids (p = 0.01) were associated with PWV in SLE patients. Interestingly, the link between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and arterial stiffness was also confirmed in SLE patients with normal systolic blood pressure. In conclusion, arterial stiffness is increased in SLE patients despite a low risk for CVD according to Framingham score and is associated with systolic blood pressure and glucocorticoid therapy. PMID:24722263

Agreement analysis between three different short geriatric screening scales in patients undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors.

PubMed

Joshi, Amit; Tandon, Nidhi; Patil, Vijay M; Noronha, Vanita; Gupta, Sudeep; Bhattacharjee, Atanu; Prabhash, Kumar

2017-01-01

Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in routine practice is not logistically feasible. Short geriatric screening tools are available for selecting patients for CGA. However none of them is validated in India. In this analysis we aim to compare the level of agreement between three commonly used short screening tools (Flemish version of TRST (fTRST), G8 and VES-13. Patients ≥65 years with a solid tumor malignancy undergoing cancer directed treatment were interviewed between March 2013 to July 2014. Geriatric screening with G8, fTRST and VES-13 tools was performed in these patients. G8 score ≤14, fTRST score ≥1 and VES-13 score ≥3 were taken as indicators for the presence of a high risk geriatric profile respectively. R version 3.1.2 was used for analysis. Cohen kappa agreement statistics was used to compare the agreement between the 3 tools. p value of 0.05 was taken as significant. The kappa statistics value for agreement between G8 score and fTRST, between VES-13 and fTRST and between VES-13 and G8 were 0.12 (P = 0.04), 0.16 (P = 0.07) and 0.05 (P = 0.45) respectively. It was found that maximum agreement was observed for VES-13 and fTRST. The agreement value of VES-13 and fTRST observed was 59.44 %(39.63% for high risk profile and 19.81% for low risk profile). The agreement value of G-8 and fTRST was 39.62% (2.83% only for high risk profile and 36.79% for low risk profile). The lowest agreement was between G8 and VES-13, 35.84% (7.54% for high risk detection and 28.30% for low risk detection). There was poor agreement (in view of kappa value been below 0.2) between the 3 short geriatric screening tools. Research needs to be directed to compare the agreement level between these 3 scales and CGA, so that the appropriate short screening tool can be selected for routine use.

Combination of post-operative radiotherapy and cetuximab for high-risk cutaneous squamous cell cancer of the head and neck: A propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Palmer, Joshua D; Schneider, Charles J; Hockstein, Neil; Hanlon, Alexandra L; Silberg, Jordan; Strasser, Jon; Mauer, Elizabeth A; Dzeda, Michael; Witt, Robert; Raben, Adam

2018-03-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the safety, tolerability and preliminary efficacy of radiotherapy plus cetuximab in high risk CSCC patients. Patients with high-risk CSCC diagnosed between 2006 and 2013 were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: radiotherapy alone versus radiotherapy plus cetuximab. Among 68 patients meeting study criteria, we identified 29 treated with cetuximab plus RT and 39 with RT alone. Primary analysis examined disease-free and overall survival, freedom from local and distant recurrence in the propensity score matched cohort. Propensity score analysis was performed with weighted factors including: Charlson Comorbidity Index score, age. KPS, primary location, T and N stage, recurrent status, margin status, LVSI, PNI and grade. Toxicity was assessed using the CTCAE v4.0. Median follow-up for living patients was 30 months. Patients in the cetuximab group were more likely to have advanced N stage, positive margins and recurrent disease. After propensity score matching the groups were well balanced. Six patients experienced ≥ grade 3 acute toxicity in the cetuximab group. The 1-year, 2-year and 5-year progression free survival (PFS) for patients in the cetuximab group were 86%, 72% and 66%, respectively. The 1-year, 2-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) for patients in the cetuximab group was 98%, 80% and 80%, respectively. Although limited by small numbers, the combination of cetuximab and radiotherapy in CSCC appears well tolerated there were more long-term survivors and less distant metastasis in the cetuximab group. These promising finding warrant further studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mediterranean diet adherence and synergy with acute myocardial infarction and its determinants: A multicenter case-control study in Italy.

PubMed

La Torre, Giuseppe; Saulle, Rosella; Di Murro, Francesca; Siliquini, Roberta; Firenze, Alberto; Maurici, Massimo; Mannocci, Alice; Colamesta, Vittoria; Barillà, Francesco; Ferrante, Fabio; Agati, Luciano

2018-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in Western countries. The possible synergistic effect of poor adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) and other risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) such as hypertension, cholesterol, ever smoker, BMI> 25, diabetes, has not been deeply studied. Case-control study. Patients with first AMI and controls from four tertiary referral Italian centers were screened for enrolment. Dietary information was collected through a questionnaire and a MD adherence score was calculated. Physical activity and smoking habits were also registered. The Synergy Index was calculated according to Rothman. 127 cases and 173 controls were enrolled. The analysis was conducted using a dichotomous variable for the MD score with values ≥7 representing good adherence. Multivariate analysis showed the following variables associated to AMI: ever smoker (OR = 2.08), diabetes (OR = 1.42), hypertension (OR = 2.08), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 2.47), BMI> 25 (OR = 1.99), while a protective effect emerged both in subjects scoring > 7 on the MD score (OR = 0.55) and in subjects resident of Southern Italy (OR = 0.38). A synergistic effect does exist between poor adherence to the MD and the following risk factors: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, BMI >25, diabetes and being a resident in central and northern Italy. Synergy between heart disease risk factors and MD underlines the need to enlarge the list of known modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to include and promote adherence to Mediterranean dietary habits.

Proton pump inhibitor use and risk of adverse cardiovascular events in aspirin treated patients with first time myocardial infarction: nationwide propensity score matched study

PubMed Central

Grove, Erik L; Hansen, Peter Riis; Olesen, Jonas B; Ahlehoff, Ole; Selmer, Christian; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Madsen, Jan Kyst; Køber, Lars; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar H

2011-01-01

Objective To examine the effect of proton pump inhibitors on adverse cardiovascular events in aspirin treated patients with first time myocardial infarction. Design Retrospective nationwide propensity score matched study based on administrative data. Setting All hospitals in Denmark. Participants All aspirin treated patients surviving 30 days after a first myocardial infarction from 1997 to 2006, with follow-up for one year. Patients treated with clopidogrel were excluded. Main outcome measures The risk of the combined end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke associated with use of proton pump inhibitors was analysed using Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox proportional hazard models, and propensity score matched Cox proportional hazard models. Results 3366 of 19 925 (16.9%) aspirin treated patients experienced recurrent myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. The hazard ratio for the combined end point in patients receiving proton pump inhibitors based on the time dependent Cox proportional hazard model was 1.46 (1.33 to 1.61; P<0.001) and for the propensity score matched model based on 8318 patients it was 1.61 (1.45 to 1.79; P<0.001). A sensitivity analysis showed no increase in risk related to use of H2 receptor blockers (1.04, 0.79 to 1.38; P=0.78). Conclusion In aspirin treated patients with first time myocardial infarction, treatment with proton pump inhibitors was associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events. PMID:21562004

Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement executive summary: coronary artery calcium scoring.

PubMed

Hamilton-Craig, Christian R; Chow, Clara K; Younger, John F; Jelinek, V M; Chan, Jonathan; Liew, Gary Yh

2017-10-16

Introduction This article summarises the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. CAC scoring is a non-invasive method for quantifying coronary artery calcification using computed tomography. It is a marker of atherosclerotic plaque burden and the strongest independent predictor of future myocardial infarction and mortality. CAC scoring provides incremental risk information beyond traditional risk calculators such as the Framingham Risk Score. Its use for risk stratification is confined to primary prevention of cardiovascular events, and can be considered as individualised coronary risk scoring for intermediate risk patients, allowing reclassification to low or high risk based on the score. Medical practitioners should carefully counsel patients before CAC testing, which should only be undertaken if an alteration in therapy, including embarking on pharmacotherapy, is being considered based on the test result. Main recommendations CAC scoring should primarily be performed on individuals without coronary disease aged 45-75 years (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk of 10-15%) who are asymptomatic. CAC scoring is also reasonable in lower risk groups (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk, < 10%) where risk scores traditionally underestimate risk (eg, family history of premature CVD) and in patients with diabetes aged 40-60 years. We recommend aspirin and a high efficacy statin in high risk patients, defined as those with a CAC score ≥ 400, or a CAC score of 100-399 and above the 75th percentile for age and sex. It is reasonable to treat patients with CAC scores ≥ 100 with aspirin and a statin. It is reasonable not to treat asymptomatic patients with a CAC score of zero. Changes in management as a result of this statement Cardiovascular risk is reclassified according to CAC score. High risk patients are treated with a high efficacy statin and aspirin. Very low risk patients (ie, CAC score of zero) do not benefit from treatment.

Failure mode and effects analysis: a comparison of two common risk prioritisation methods.

PubMed

McElroy, Lisa M; Khorzad, Rebeca; Nannicelli, Anna P; Brown, Alexandra R; Ladner, Daniela P; Holl, Jane L

2016-05-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a method of risk assessment increasingly used in healthcare over the past decade. The traditional method, however, can require substantial time and training resources. The goal of this study is to compare a simplified scoring method with the traditional scoring method to determine the degree of congruence in identifying high-risk failures. An FMEA of the operating room (OR) to intensive care unit (ICU) handoff was conducted. Failures were scored and ranked using both the traditional risk priority number (RPN) and criticality-based method, and a simplified method, which designates failures as 'high', 'medium' or 'low' risk. The degree of congruence was determined by first identifying those failures determined to be critical by the traditional method (RPN≥300), and then calculating the per cent congruence with those failures designated critical by the simplified methods (high risk). In total, 79 process failures among 37 individual steps in the OR to ICU handoff process were identified. The traditional method yielded Criticality Indices (CIs) ranging from 18 to 72 and RPNs ranging from 80 to 504. The simplified method ranked 11 failures as 'low risk', 30 as medium risk and 22 as high risk. The traditional method yielded 24 failures with an RPN ≥300, of which 22 were identified as high risk by the simplified method (92% agreement). The top 20% of CI (≥60) included 12 failures, of which six were designated as high risk by the simplified method (50% agreement). These results suggest that the simplified method of scoring and ranking failures identified by an FMEA can be a useful tool for healthcare organisations with limited access to FMEA expertise. However, the simplified method does not result in the same degree of discrimination in the ranking of failures offered by the traditional method. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Rockall score in predicting outcomes of elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

PubMed Central

Wang, Chang-Yuan; Qin, Jian; Wang, Jing; Sun, Chang-Yi; Cao, Tao; Zhu, Dan-Dan

2013-01-01

AIM: To validate the clinical Rockall score in predicting outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) in elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken in 341 patients admitted to the emergency room and Intensive Care Unit of Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The Rockall scores were calculated, and the association between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) was assessed. Based on the Rockall scores, patients were divided into three risk categories: low risk ≤ 3, moderate risk 3-4, high risk ≥ 4, and the percentages of rebleeding/death/surgery in each risk category were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the validity of the Rockall system in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality of patients with AUGIB. RESULTS: A positive linear correlation between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes in terms of rebleeding, surgery and mortality was observed (r = 0.962, 0.955 and 0.946, respectively, P = 0.001). High clinical Rockall scores > 3 were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death). There was a significant correlation between high Rockall scores and the occurrence of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in the entire patient population (χ2 = 49.29, 23.10 and 27.64, respectively, P = 0.001). For rebleeding, the area under the ROC curve was 0.788 (95%CI: 0.726-0.849, P = 0.001); For surgery, the area under the ROC curve was 0.752 (95%CI: 0.679-0.825, P = 0.001) and for mortality, the area under the ROC curve was 0.787 (95%CI: 0.716-0.859, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Rockall score is clinically useful, rapid and accurate in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality outcomes in elderly patients with AUGIB. PMID:23801840

Competing risk analysis of mortality in prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Ruiz-Cerdá, J L; Soto-Poveda, A; Luján-Marco, S; Loras-Monfort, A; Trassierra-Villa, M; Rogel-Bertó, R; Boronat-Tormo, F

To determine the risk of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) versus the competing risk of mortality by other causes (MOC) in patients with localised prostate cancer (LPC) treated with radical prostatectomy (RP). An observational cohort study of 982 patients with LPC treated with RP selected from our department's PC registry database. A competing risk analysis was performed, calculating the probability of CSM in the presence of the competing risk of MOC. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed, and point estimates were performed at 5, 10 and 15 years. The analysis was stratified by age (≤65 vs. >65 years) and risk group: low (Gleason score ≤6 and pT2abc); intermediate (Gleason score of 7 and pT2abc) and high (Gleason score of 8-10 or pT3ab). With a median follow-up of 60 months, the overall probability of dying from PC was 3.5%, and the probability of dying from other causes was 9%. A competing effect for MOC was observed. The risk of MOC was almost 3 times greater than that of CSM. This effect remained for all risk groups, although its magnitude decreased progressively according to the risk group level. At 10 years, CSM was only 0%, 1% and 2% for the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively, while the likelihood of MOC was 4%, 4% and 10%, respectively. The mortality risk was shown after 10years of follow-up and was higher for other causes not attributable to PC and for patients older than 65years. The benefit of RP might be overestimated, given that the risk of MOC is greater than that of CSM, regardless of the age group and risk group, especially after 10years of follow-up. The only parameter that varied was the magnitude of the CSM/MOC ratio. This information could help in choosing the active treatment for patients with LPC and short life expectancies. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

GRECOS Project (Genotyping Recurrence Risk of Stroke): The Use of Genetics to Predict the Vascular Recurrence After Stroke.

PubMed

Fernández-Cadenas, Israel; Mendióroz, Maite; Giralt, Dolors; Nafria, Cristina; Garcia, Elena; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Domingues-Montanari, Sophie; Delgado, Pilar; Ribó, Marc; Castellanos, Mar; Martínez, Sergi; Freijo, Marimar; Jiménez-Conde, Jordi; Rubiera, Marta; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Molina, Carlos A; Font, Maria Angels; Grau Olivares, Marta; Palomeras, Ernest; Perez de la Ossa, Natalia; Martinez-Zabaleta, Maite; Masjuan, Jaime; Moniche, Francisco; Canovas, David; Piñana, Carlos; Purroy, Francisco; Cocho, Dolores; Navas, Inma; Tejero, Carlos; Aymerich, Nuria; Cullell, Natalia; Muiño, Elena; Serena, Joaquín; Rubio, Francisco; Davalos, Antoni; Roquer, Jaume; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Martí-Fábregas, Joan; Keene, Keith; Chen, Wei-Min; Worrall, Bradford; Sale, Michele; Arboix, Adrià; Krupinski, Jerzy; Montaner, Joan

2017-05-01

Vascular recurrence occurs in 11% of patients during the first year after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack. Clinical scores do not predict the whole vascular recurrence risk; therefore, we aimed to find genetic variants associated with recurrence that might improve the clinical predictive models in IS. We analyzed 256 polymorphisms from 115 candidate genes in 3 patient cohorts comprising 4482 IS or transient ischemic attack patients. The discovery cohort was prospectively recruited and included 1494 patients, 6.2% of them developed a new IS during the first year of follow-up. Replication analysis was performed in 2988 patients using SNPlex or HumanOmni1-Quad technology. We generated a predictive model using Cox regression (GRECOS score [Genotyping Reurrence Risk of Stroke]) and generated risk groups using a classification tree method. The analyses revealed that rs1800801 in the MGP gene (hazard ratio, 1.33; P =9×10 - 03 ), a gene related to artery calcification, was associated with new IS during the first year of follow-up. This polymorphism was replicated in a Spanish cohort (n=1.305); however, it was not significantly associated in a North American cohort (n=1.683). The GRECOS score predicted new IS ( P =3.2×10 - 09 ) and could classify patients, from low risk of stroke recurrence (1.9%) to high risk (12.6%). Moreover, the addition of genetic risk factors to the GRECOS score improves the prediction compared with previous Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II score ( P =0.03). The use of genetics could be useful to estimate vascular recurrence risk after IS. Genetic variability in the MGP gene was associated with vascular recurrence in the Spanish population. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Unanswered questions for management of acute coronary syndrome: risk stratification of patients with minimal disease or normal findings on coronary angiography.

PubMed

Bugiardini, Raffaele; Manfrini, Olivia; De Ferrari, Gaetano M

2006-07-10

The prognostic implication of chest pain associated with normal or near-normal findings on angiography is still unknown. We explored outcomes and methods of risk stratification in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. Data were pooled from 3 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials (TIMI 11B, TIMI 16, and TIMI 22). Angiographic data were available on 7656 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. The primary end point of this analysis was the composite of the rates of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring rehospitalization, revascularization, and stroke at 1-year follow-up. Outcomes were evaluated by mean of the TIMI risk score for developing at least 1 component of the primary end point. Angiographic findings showed that 710 (9.1%) of 7656 patients had nonobstructive coronary artery disease; 48.7% of these had normal coronary arteries (0% stenosis), and 51.3% had mild coronary artery disease (>0% to <50% stenosis). A primary end-point event occurred in 101 patients (12.1%). It is noteworthy that a 2% event rate of deaths and myocardial infarctions had occurred in these patients at the 1-year follow-up. Event rates of death and myocardial infarction increased significantly as the TIMI risk score increased from 0.6% for a score of 1 to 4.0% for a score greater than 4. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with nonobstructive coronary artery disease detected by angiography have a substantial risk of subsequent coronary events within 1 year. The risk is not univariately high, and the TIMI risk score helps to reveal patients at high risk.

Socioeconomic factors and survival in patients with non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Xu, Cheng; Chen, Yu-Pei; Liu, Xu; Tang, Ling-Long; Chen, Lei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Li, Wen-Fei; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

2017-06-01

The effect of socioeconomic factors on receipt of definitive treatment and survival outcomes in non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains unclear. Eligible patients (n = 37 995) were identified from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2007 and 2012. Socioeconomic factors (i.e., median household income, education level, unemployment rate, insurance status, marital status and residence) were included in univariate/multivariate Cox regression analysis; validated factors were used to generate nomograms for cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS), and a prognostic score model for risk stratification. Low- and high-risk groups were compared for all cancer subsites. Impact of race/ethnicity on survival was investigated in each risk group. Marital status, median household income and insurance status were included in the nomograms for CSS and OS, which had higher c-indexes than the 6th edition TNM staging system (all P < 0.001). Based on three disadvantageous socioeconomic factors (i.e., unmarried status, uninsured status, median household income

Fetal and Postnatal Head Circumference Growth: Synergetic Factors for Neurodevelopmental Outcome at 2 Years of Age for Preterm Infants.

PubMed

Sicard, Mélanie; Nusinovici, Simon; Hanf, Matthieu; Muller, Jean-Baptiste; Guellec, Isabelle; Ancel, Pierre-Yves; Gascoin, Géraldine; Rozé, Jean-Christophe; Flamant, Cyril

2017-01-01

Preterm infants present higher risk of non-optimal neurodevelopmental outcome. Fetal and postnatal growth, in particular head circumference (HC), is associated with neurodevelopmental outcome. We aimed to calculate the relationship between HC at birth, HC delta Z-score (between birth and hospital discharge), and non-optimal neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of corrected age in preterm infants. Surviving infants born ≤34 weeks of gestation were included in the analysis. The relationship between the risk of being non-optimal at 2 years and both HC at birth and HC growth was assessed. The 2 Z-scores were considered first independently and then simultaneously to investigate their effect on the risk of non-optimality using a generalized additive model. A total of 4,046 infants with both HC measures at birth and hospital discharge were included. Infants with small HC at birth (Z-score <-2 SD), or presenting suboptimal HC growth (dZ-score <-2 SD), are at higher risk of non-optimal neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years (respectively OR 1.7 [95% CI 1.4-2] and OR 1.4 [95% CI 1.2-1.8]). Interestingly, patients cumulating small HC Z-score at birth (-2 SD) and presenting catch-down growth (HC dZ-score [-2 SD]) have a significantly increased risk for neurocognitive impairment (OR >2) while adjusting for gestational age, twin status, sex, and socioeconomic information. HC at birth and HC dZ-score between birth and hospital discharge are synergistically associated to neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of corrected age, in a population-based prospective cohort of preterm infants born ≤34 weeks of gestation. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Risk Factors for Malnutrition Among Children With Cerebral Palsy in Botswana.

PubMed

Johnson, Allison; Gambrah-Sampaney, Claudia; Khurana, Esha; Baier, James; Baranov, Esther; Monokwane, Baphaleng; Bearden, David R

2017-05-01

Children with cerebral palsy in low-resource settings are at high risk of malnutrition, which further increases their risk of poor health outcomes. However, there are few available data on specific risk factors for malnutrition among children with cerebral palsy in the developing world. We performed a case-control study among children with cerebral palsy receiving care at a tertiary care hospital in Gaborone, Botswana. Children with cerebral palsy and malnutrition were identified according to World Health Organization growth curves and compared with subjects with cerebral palsy without malnutrition. Risk factors for malnutrition were identified using multivariable logistic regression models. These risk factors were then used to generate a Malnutrition Risk Score, and Receiver Operating Characteristic curves were used to identify optimal cutoffs to identify subjects at high risk of malnutrition. We identified 61 children with cerebral palsy, 26 of whom (43%) met criteria for malnutrition. Nonambulatory status (odds ratio 13.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8-50.1, P < 0.001) and a composite measure of socioeconomic status (odds ratio 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.5, P = 0.03) were the strongest risk factors for malnutrition. A Malnutrition Risk Score was constructed based on these risk factors, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated excellent performance characteristics of this score (area under the curve 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94). Malnutrition is common among children with cerebral palsy in Botswana, and a simple risk score may help identify children with the highest risk. Further studies are needed to validate this screening tool and to determine optimal nutritional interventions in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Repeated testing improves achievement in a blended learning approach for risk competence training of medical students: results of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Spreckelsen, C; Juenger, J

2017-09-26

Adequate estimation and communication of risks is a critical competence of physicians. Due to an evident lack of these competences, effective training addressing risk competence during medical education is needed. Test-enhanced learning has been shown to produce marked effects on achievements. This study aimed to investigate the effect of repeated tests implemented on top of a blended learning program for risk competence. We introduced a blended-learning curriculum for risk estimation and risk communication based on a set of operationalized learning objectives, which was integrated into a mandatory course "Evidence-based Medicine" for third-year students. A randomized controlled trial addressed the effect of repeated testing on achievement as measured by the students' pre- and post-training score (nine multiple-choice items). Basic numeracy and statistical literacy were assessed at baseline. Analysis relied on descriptive statistics (histograms, box plots, scatter plots, and summary of descriptive measures), bootstrapped confidence intervals, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), and effect sizes (Cohen's d, r) based on adjusted means and standard deviations. All of the 114 students enrolled in the course consented to take part in the study and were assigned to either the intervention or control group (both: n = 57) by balanced randomization. Five participants dropped out due to non-compliance (control: 4, intervention: 1). Both groups profited considerably from the program in general (Cohen's d for overall pre vs. post scores: 2.61). Repeated testing yielded an additional positive effect: while the covariate (baseline score) exhibits no relation to the post-intervention score, F(1, 106) = 2.88, p > .05, there was a significant effect of the intervention (repeated tests scenario) on learning achievement, F(1106) = 12.72, p < .05, d = .94, r = .42 (95% CI: [.26, .57]). However, in the subgroup of participants with a high initial numeracy score no similar effect could be observed. Dedicated training can improve relevant components of risk competence of medical students. An already promising overall effect of the blended learning approach can be improved significantly by implementing a test-enhanced learning design, namely repeated testing. As students with a high initial numeracy score did not profit equally from repeated testing, target-group specific opt-out may be offered.

Dexamethasone treatment and prognostic factors in community-acquired bacterial meningitis: a Danish retrospective population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Bodilsen, Jacob; Dalager-Pedersen, Michael; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Nielsen, Henrik

2014-06-01

The morbidity and mortality in community-acquired bacterial meningitis (CABM) remain substantial and treatment outcomes and predictors of a poor prognosis must be assessed regularly. We aimed to describe the outcome of patients with CABM treated with dexamethasone and to assess the performance of the Dutch Meningitis Risk Score (DMRS). We retrospectively evaluated all adults with CABM in North Denmark Region, 1998-2012. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality and Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score. A GOS score of 5 was categorized as a favourable outcome and scores of 1-4 as unfavourable. We used logistic analysis to compute relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for an unfavourable outcome adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity. We identified a total of 172 cases of CABM. In-hospital mortality was unaffected by the implementation of dexamethasone in 2003 (19% vs 20%). Dexamethasone treatment was associated with a prompt diagnosis of meningitis and a statistically insignificant decrease in the risk of an unfavourable outcome (33% vs 53%; adjusted RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.41-1.01) and in-hospital mortality (15% vs 24%; adjusted RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.35-1.48). Of the risk factors included in the DMRS, we found age and tachycardia to be significantly associated with an unfavourable outcome in the multivariate analyses. Patients treated with dexamethasone were more likely to have a favourable outcome, although statistical significance was not reached. Several parameters included in the Dutch risk score were also negative predictors in our cohort, although the entire risk score could not be validated due to a lack of data.

The PRONE score: an algorithm for predicting doctors’ risks of formal patient complaints using routinely collected administrative data

PubMed Central

Spittal, Matthew J; Bismark, Marie M; Studdert, David M

2015-01-01

Background Medicolegal agencies—such as malpractice insurers, medical boards and complaints bodies—are mostly passive regulators; they react to episodes of substandard care, rather than intervening to prevent them. At least part of the explanation for this reactive role lies in the widely recognised difficulty of making robust predictions about medicolegal risk at the individual clinician level. We aimed to develop a simple, reliable scoring system for predicting Australian doctors’ risks of becoming the subject of repeated patient complaints. Methods Using routinely collected administrative data, we constructed a national sample of 13 849 formal complaints against 8424 doctors. The complaints were lodged by patients with state health service commissions in Australia over a 12-year period. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of subsequent complaints, defined as another complaint occurring within 2 years of an index complaint. Model estimates were then used to derive a simple predictive algorithm, designed for application at the doctor level. Results The PRONE (Predicted Risk Of New Event) score is a 22-point scoring system that indicates a doctor's future complaint risk based on four variables: a doctor's specialty and sex, the number of previous complaints and the time since the last complaint. The PRONE score performed well in predicting subsequent complaints, exhibiting strong validity and reliability and reasonable goodness of fit (c-statistic=0.70). Conclusions The PRONE score appears to be a valid method for assessing individual doctors’ risks of attracting recurrent complaints. Regulators could harness such information to target quality improvement interventions, and prevent substandard care and patient dissatisfaction. The approach we describe should be replicable in other agencies that handle large numbers of patient complaints or malpractice claims. PMID:25855664

Association of Coronary Artery Calcification with Estimated Coronary Heart Disease Risk from Prediction Models in a Community-Based Sample of Japanese Men: The Shiga Epidemiological Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis (SESSA).

PubMed

Fujiyoshi, Akira; Arima, Hisatomi; Tanaka-Mizuno, Sachiko; Hisamatsu, Takahashi; Kadowaki, Sayaka; Kadota, Aya; Zaid, Maryam; Sekikawa, Akira; Yamamoto, Takashi; Horie, Minoru; Miura, Katsuyuki; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

2017-12-05

The clinical significance of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is not fully determined in general East Asian populations where background coronary heart disease (CHD) is less common than in USA/Western countries. We cross-sectionally assessed the association between CAC and estimated CHD risk as well as each major risk factor in general Japanese men. Participants were 996 randomly selected Japanese men aged 40-79 y, free of stroke, myocardial infarction, or revascularization. We examined an independent relationship between each risk factor used in prediction models and CAC score ≥100 by logistic regression. We then divided the participants into quintiles of estimated CHD risk per prediction model to calculate odds ratio of having CAC score ≥100. Receiver operating characteristic curve and c-index were used to examine discriminative ability of prevalent CAC for each prediction model. Age, smoking status, and systolic blood pressure were significantly associated with CAC score ≥100 in the multivariable analysis. The odds of having CAC score ≥100 were higher for those in higher quintiles in all prediction models (p-values for trend across quintiles ＜0.0001 for all models). All prediction models showed fair and similar discriminative abilities to detect CAC score ≥100, with similar c-statistics (around 0.70). In a community-based sample of Japanese men free of CHD and stroke, CAC score ≥100 was significantly associated with higher estimated CHD risk by prediction models. This finding supports the potential utility of CAC as a biomarker for CHD in a general Japanese male population.

Global Fund grant programmes: an analysis of evaluation scores.

PubMed

Radelet, Steven; Siddiqi, Bilal

2007-05-26

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria evaluates programme performance after 2 years to help decide whether to continue funding. We aimed to identify the correlation between programme evaluation scores and characteristics of the programme, the health sector, and the recipient country. We obtained data on the first 140 Global Fund grants evaluated in 2006, and analysed 134 of these. We used an ordered probit multivariate analysis to link evaluation scores to different characteristics, allowing us to record the association between changes in those characteristics and the probability of a programme receiving a particular evaluation score. Programmes that had government agencies as principal recipients, had a large amount of funding, were focused on malaria, had weak initial proposals, or were evaluated by the accounting firm KPMG, scored lowest. Countries with a high number of doctors per head, high measles immunisation rates, few health-sector donors, and high disease-prevalence rates had higher evaluation scores. Poor countries, those with small government budget deficits, and those that have or have had socialist governments also received higher scores. Our results show associations, not causality, and they focus on evaluation scores rather than actual performance of the programmes. Yet they provide some early indications of characteristics that can help the Global Fund identify and monitor programmes that might be at risk. The results should not be used to influence the distribution of funding, but rather to allocate resources for oversight and risk management.

Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, UKPDS Risk Engine, and SCORE for Predicting Carotid Atherosclerosis and Peripheral Arterial Disease in Korean Type 2 Diabetic Patients.

PubMed

Ahn, Hye-Ran; Shin, Min-Ho; Yun, Woo-Jun; Kim, Hye-Yeon; Lee, Young-Hoon; Kweon, Sun-Seog; Rhee, Jung-Ae; Choi, Jin-Su; Choi, Seong-Woo

2011-03-01

To compare the predictability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients. Among 1,275 registered type 2 diabetes patients in the health center, 621 subjects with type 2 diabetes participated in the study. Well-trained examiners measured the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque, and ankle brachial index (ABI). The subject's 10-year risk of coronary heart disease was calculated according to the FRS, UKPDS, and SCORE risk scores. These three risk scores were compared to the areas under the curve (AUC). The odds ratios (ORs) of all risk scores increased as the quartiles increased for plaque, IMT, and ABI. For plaque and IMT, the UKPDS risk score provided the highest OR (95% confidence interval) at 3.82 (2.36, 6.17) and at 6.21 (3.37, 11.45). For ABI, the SCORE risk estimation provided the highest OR at 7.41 (3.20, 17.18). However, no significant difference was detected for plaque, IMT, or ABI (P = 0.839, 0.313, and 0.113, respectively) when the AUCs of the three risk scores were compared. When we graphed the Kernel density distribution of these three risk scores, UKPDS had a higher distribution than FRS and SCORE. No significant difference was observed when comparing the predictability of the FRS, UKPDS risk engine, and SCORE risk estimation for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.

Association between all-cause mortality and severity of depressive symptoms in patients with type 2 diabetes: Analysis from the Japan Diabetes Complications Study (JDCS).

PubMed

Matsunaga, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shiro; Fujihara, Kazuya; Horikawa, Chika; Iimuro, Satoshi; Kitaoka, Masafumi; Sato, Asako; Nakamura, Jiro; Haneda, Masakazu; Shimano, Hitoshi; Akanuma, Yasuo; Ohashi, Yasuo; Sone, Hirohito

2017-08-01

The aims of this study are to confirm whether the excess mortality caused by depressive symptoms is independent of severe hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to evaluate the association between all-cause mortality and degrees of severity of depressive symptoms in Japanese patients with T2DM. A total of 1160 Japanese patients with T2DM were eligible for this analysis. Participants were followed prospectively for 3years and their depressive states were evaluated at baseline by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the relative risk of all-cause mortality and was adjusted by possible confounding factors, including severe hypoglycemia, all of which are known as risk factors for both depression and mortality. After adjustment for severe hypoglycemia, each 5-point increase in the CES-D score was significantly associated with excess all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.69 [95% CI 1.26-2.17]). The spline curve of HRs for mortality according to total CES-D scores showed that mortality risk was slightly increased at lower scores but was sharply elevated at higher scores. A high score on the CES-D at baseline was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in patients with T2DM after adjusting for confounders including severe hypoglycemia. However, only a small effect on mortality risk was found at relatively lower levels of depressive symptoms in this population. Further research is needed to confirm this relationship between the severity of depressive symptoms and mortality in patients with T2DM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship Between Psychiatric Status, Self-Reported Outcome Measures, and Clinical Parameters in Axial Spondyloarthritis

PubMed Central

Kilic, Gamze; Kilic, Erkan; Ozgocmen, Salih

2014-01-01

Abstract This article aims to compare the risks of depression and anxiety in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA) and investigate the relationship among self-reported outcome measures, clinical parameters, and physical variables of patients with axSpA. Patients with axSpA were recruited from Erciyes Spondyloarthritis Cohort. The patients met Assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society classification criteria for axial SpA and were assessed in a cross-sectional study design for visual analog scale (VAS) pain, Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI), Ankylosing Spondylitis Quality of Life questionnaire (ASQoL), and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score–C-reactive protein (ASDAS-CRP). Psychological status was evaluated using the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the associations between psychological variables and clinical parameters after adjusting for confounding variables. Of the 316 patients (142 nr-axSpA, 174 AS), 139 (44%) had high risk for depression (HADS-D score ≥7) and 71 (22.5%) for anxiety (HADS-A score ≥10). HADS-D and HADS-A scores were similar between patients with AS and nr-axSpA. Patients with high risk for depression and anxiety had higher scores in BASDAI, BASFI, and ASDAS-CRP, and also poorer scores in VAS pain and ASQoL. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the ASDAS-CRP, ASQoL, BASDAI, as well as educational level were factors associated with the risk of depression whereas the ASQoL and educational level were factors associated with the risk of anxiety. Patients with nr-axSpA and AS have similar burden of psychological distress. The quality of life (ASQoL) and educational level were factors associated with the risk of both depression and anxiety whereas disease activity (BASDAI and ASDAS-CRP) was the independent risk factor associated with depression but not anxiety in axSpA. These findings suggest that psychological status should be examined while assessing patients with axSpA including AS and nr-axSpA. PMID:25546683

Managing Student Loan Default Risk: Evidence from a Privately Guaranteed Portfolio.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monteverde, Kirk

2000-01-01

Application of the statistical techniques of survival analysis and credit scoring to private education loans extended to law students found a pronounced seasoning effect for such loans and the robust predictive power of credit bureau scoring of borrowers. Other predictors of default included school-of-attendance, school's geographic location, and…

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used tomore » determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

Development and Validation of a Model to Determine Risk of Progression of Barrett's Esophagus to Neoplasia.

PubMed

Parasa, Sravanthi; Vennalaganti, Sreekar; Gaddam, Srinivas; Vennalaganti, Prashanth; Young, Patrick; Gupta, Neil; Thota, Prashanthi; Cash, Brooks; Mathur, Sharad; Sampliner, Richard; Moawad, Fouad; Lieberman, David; Bansal, Ajay; Kennedy, Kevin F; Vargo, John; Falk, Gary; Spaander, Manon; Bruno, Marco; Sharma, Prateek

2018-04-01

A system is needed to determine the risk of patients with Barrett's esophagus for progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed and validated a model to determine of progression to HGD or EAC in patients with BE, based on demographic data and endoscopic and histologic findings at the time of index endoscopy. We performed a longitudinal study of patients with BE at 5 centers in United States and 1 center in Netherlands enrolled in the Barrett's Esophagus Study database from 1985 through 2014. Patients were excluded from the analysis if they had less than 1 year of follow-up, were diagnosed with HGD or EAC within the past year, were missing baseline histologic data, or had no intestinal metaplasia. Seventy percent of the patients were used to derive the model and 30% were used for the validation study. The primary outcome was development of HGD or EAC during the follow-up period (median, 5.9 years). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. We assigned a specific number of points to each BE risk factor, and point totals (scores) were used to create categories of low, intermediate, and high risk. We used Cox regression to compute hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals to determine associations between risk of progression and scores. Of 4584 patients in the database, 2697 were included in our analysis (84.1% men; 87.6% Caucasian; mean age, 55.4 ± 20.1 years; mean body mass index, 27.9 ± 5.5 kg/m 2 ; mean length of BE, 3.7 ± 3.2 cm). During the follow-up period, 154 patients (5.7%) developed HGD or EAC, with an annual rate of progression of 0.95%. Male sex, smoking, length of BE, and baseline-confirmed low-grade dysplasia were significantly associated with progression. Scores assigned identified patients with BE that progressed to HGD or EAC with a c-statistic of 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.80; P < .001). The calibration slope was 0.9966 (P = .99), determined from the validation cohort. We developed a scoring system (Progression in Barrett's Esophagus score) based on male sex, smoking, length of BE, and baseline low-grade dysplasia that identified patients with BE at low, intermediate, and high risk for HGD or EAC. This scoring system might be used in management of patients. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

2016-01-01

Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance. PMID:26492059

Development and validation of the "Pediatric Risk of Nosocomial Sepsis (PRiNS)" score for health care-associated infections in a medical pediatric intensive care unit of a developing economy--a prospective observational cohort study.

PubMed

Saptharishi, L G; Jayashree, Muralidharan; Singhi, Sunit

2016-04-01

Given the high burden of health care-associated infections (HAIs) in resource-limited settings, there is a tendency toward overdiagnosis/treatment. This study was designed to create an easy-to-use, dynamic, bedside risk stratification model for classifying children based on their risk of developing HAIs during their pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) stay, to aid judicious resource utilization. A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted in the 12-bed PICU of a large Indian tertiary care hospital between January and October 2011. A total of 412 consecutive admissions, aged 1 month to 12 years with PICU stay greater than 48 hours were enrolled. Independent predictors for HAIs identified using multivariate regression analysis were combined to create a novel scoring system. Performance and calibration of score were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, respectively. Internal validation was done. Age (<5 years), Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (24 hours) score, presence of indwelling catheters, need for intubation, albumin infusion, immunomodulator, and prior antibiotic use (≥4) were independent predictors of HAIs. This model, with area under the ROC curve of 0.87, at a cutoff of 15, had a negative predictive value of 89.9% with overall accuracy of 79.3%. It reduced classification errors from 29.8% to 20.7%. All 7 predictors retained their statistical significance after bootstrapping, confirming the internal validity of the score. The "Pediatric Risk of Nosocomial Sepsis" score can reliably classify children into high- and low-risk groups, based on their risk of developing HAIs in the PICU of a resource-limited setting. In view of its high sensitivity and specificity, diagnostic and therapeutic interventions may be directed away from the low-risk group, ensuring effective utilization of limited resources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Risk factors for surgical site infections in patients undergoing craniotomy].

PubMed

Cha, Kyeong-Sook; Cho, Ok-Hee; Yoo, So-Yeon

2010-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors for postoperative surgical site infections (SSIs) after craniotomy. This study was a retrospective case-control study of 103 patients who had craniotomies between March 2007 and December 2008. A retrospective review of prospectively collected databases of consecutive patients who underwent craniotomy was done. SSIs were defined by using the Centers for Disease Control criteria. Twenty-six cases (infection) and 77 controls (no infection) were matched for age, gender and time of surgery. Descriptive analysis, t-test, X(2)-test and logistic regression analyses were used for data analysis. The statistical difference between cases and controls was significant for hospital length of stay (>14 days), intensive care unit stay more than 15 days, Glasgrow Coma Scale (GCS) score (< or = 7 days), extra-ventricular drainage and coexistent infection. Risk factors were identified by logistic regression and included hospital length of stay of more than 14 days (odds ratio [OR]=23.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.53-216.11) and GCS score (< or = 7 scores) (OR=4.71, 95% CI=1.64-13.50). The results of this study show that patients are at high risk for infection when they have a low level of consciousness or their length hospital stay is long term. Nurses have to take an active and continuous approach to infection control to help with patients having these risk factors.

Impact of obesity-related genes in Spanish population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The objective was to investigate the association between BMI and single nucleotide polymorphisms previously identified of obesity-related genes in two Spanish populations. Forty SNPs in 23 obesity-related genes were evaluated in a rural population characterized by a high prevalence of obesity (869 subjects, mean age 46 yr, 62% women, 36% obese) and in an urban population (1425 subjects, mean age 54 yr, 50% women, 19% obese). Genotyping was assessed by using SNPlex and PLINK for the association analysis. Results Polymorphisms of the FTO were significantly associated with BMI, in the rural population (beta 0.87, p-value <0.001). None of the other SNPs showed significant association after Bonferroni correction in the two populations or in the pooled analysis. A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was constructed using the risk alleles of the Tag-SNPs with a positive Beta parameter in both populations. From the first to the fifth quintile of the score, the BMI increased 0.45 kg/m2 in Hortega and 2.0 kg/m2 in Pizarra. Overall, the obesity predictive value was low (less than 1%). Conclusion The risk associated with polymorphisms is low and the overall effect on BMI or obesity prediction is minimal. A weighted genetic risk score based on genes mainly acting through central nervous system mechanisms was associated with BMI but it yields minimal clinical prediction for the obesity risk in the general population. PMID:24267414

Impact of obesity-related genes in Spanish population.

PubMed

Martínez-García, Fernando; Mansego, María L; Rojo-Martínez, Gemma; De Marco-Solar, Griselda; Morcillo, Sonsoles; Soriguer, Federico; Redón, Josep; Pineda Alonso, Monica; Martín-Escudero, Juan C; Cooper, Richard S; Chaves, Felipe J

2013-11-23

The objective was to investigate the association between BMI and single nucleotide polymorphisms previously identified of obesity-related genes in two Spanish populations. Forty SNPs in 23 obesity-related genes were evaluated in a rural population characterized by a high prevalence of obesity (869 subjects, mean age 46 yr, 62% women, 36% obese) and in an urban population (1425 subjects, mean age 54 yr, 50% women, 19% obese). Genotyping was assessed by using SNPlex and PLINK for the association analysis. Polymorphisms of the FTO were significantly associated with BMI, in the rural population (beta 0.87, p-value <0.001). None of the other SNPs showed significant association after Bonferroni correction in the two populations or in the pooled analysis. A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was constructed using the risk alleles of the Tag-SNPs with a positive Beta parameter in both populations. From the first to the fifth quintile of the score, the BMI increased 0.45 kg/m2 in Hortega and 2.0 kg/m2 in Pizarra. Overall, the obesity predictive value was low (less than 1%). The risk associated with polymorphisms is low and the overall effect on BMI or obesity prediction is minimal. A weighted genetic risk score based on genes mainly acting through central nervous system mechanisms was associated with BMI but it yields minimal clinical prediction for the obesity risk in the general population.

Clinical factors predicting bacteremia in low-risk febrile neutropenia after anti-cancer chemotherapy.

PubMed

Ha, Young Eun; Song, Jae-Hoon; Kang, Won Ki; Peck, Kyong Ran; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Kang, Cheol-In; Joung, Mi-Kyong; Joo, Eun-Jeong; Shon, Kyung Mok

2011-11-01

Bacteremia is an important clinical condition in febrile neutropenia that can cause clinical failure of antimicrobial therapy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical factors predictive of bacteremia in low-risk febrile neutropenia at initial patient evaluation. We performed a retrospective cohort study in a university hospital in Seoul, Korea, between May 1995 and May 2007. Patients who met the criteria of low-risk febrile neutropenia at the time of visit to emergency department after anti-cancer chemotherapy were included in the analysis. During the study period, 102 episodes of bacteremia were documented among the 993 episodes of low-risk febrile neutropenia. Single gram-negative bacteremia was most frequent. In multivariate regression analysis, initial body temperature ≥39°C, initial hypotension, presence of clinical sites of infection, presence of central venous catheter, initial absolute neutrophil count <50/mm(3), and the CRP ≥10 mg/dL were statistically significant predictors for bacteremia. A scoring system using these variables was derived and the likelihood of bacteremia was well correlated with the score points with AUC under ROC curve of 0.785. Patients with low score points had low rate of bacteremia, thus, would be candidates for outpatient-based or oral antibiotic therapy. We identified major clinical factors that can predict bacteremia in low-risk febrile neutropenia.

Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and positive predictive value. For 3-vessel disease, the FRS had better predictive value than the other scores (area under curve, 0.74, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and negative predictive value. The risk scores (FRS, MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

Pressure ulcer incidence and Braden subscales: Retrospective cohort analysis in general wards of a Portuguese hospital.

PubMed

Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Guedes, Jenifer Adriana Domingues; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Machado, Paulo Alexandre Puga; Melo, Elsa Maria Oliveira Pinheiro

2018-05-01

To study the influence of Braden subscales scores (at the first pressure ulcer risk assessment) on pressure ulcer incidence using a univariate and a multivariate time to event analysis. Retrospective cohort analysis of electronic health record database from adult patients admitted without pressure ulcer(s) to medical and surgical wards of a Portuguese hospital during 2012. The hazard ratio of developing a pressure ulcer during the length of inpatient stay was calculated by univariate Cox regression for each variable of interest and by multivariate Cox regression for the Braden subscales that were statistically significant. This study included a sample of 6552 participants. During the length of stay, 153 participants developed (at least) one pressure ulcer, giving a pressure ulcer incidence of 2.3%. The univariate time to event analysis showed that all Braden subscales, except "nutrition", were associated with the development of pressure ulcer. By multivariate analysis the scores for "mobility" and "activity" were independently predictive of the development of pressure ulcer(s) for all participants. (Im)"mobility" (the lack of ability to change and control body position) and (in)"activity" (the limited degree of physical activity) were the major risk factors assessed by Braden Scale for pressure ulcer development during the length of inpatient stay. Thus, the greatest efforts in managing pressure ulcer risk should be on "mobility" and "activity", independently of the total Braden Scale score. Copyright © 2018 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Size-adjusted Quantitative Gleason Score as a Predictor of Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Deng, Fang-Ming; Donin, Nicholas M; Pe Benito, Ruth; Melamed, Jonathan; Le Nobin, Julien; Zhou, Ming; Ma, Sisi; Wang, Jinhua; Lepor, Herbert

2016-08-01

The risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy for pathologic Gleason 7 prostate cancer varies according to the proportion of Gleason 4 component. We sought to explore the value of several novel quantitative metrics of Gleason 4 disease for the prediction of BCR in men with Gleason 7 disease. We analyzed a cohort of 2630 radical prostatectomy cases from 1990-2007. All pathologic Gleason 7 cases were identified and assessed for quantity of Gleason pattern 4. Three methods were used to quantify the extent of Gleason 4: a quantitative Gleason score (qGS) based on the proportion of tumor composed of Gleason pattern 4, a size-weighted score (swGS) incorporating the overall quantity of Gleason 4, and a size index (siGS) incorporating the quantity of Gleason 4 based on the index lesion. Associations between the above metrics and BCR were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. qGS, swGS, and siGS were significantly associated with BCR on multivariate analysis when adjusted for traditional Gleason score, age, prostate specific antigen, surgical margin, and stage. Using Harrell's c-index to compare the scoring systems, qGS (0.83), swGS (0.84), and siGS (0.84) all performed better than the traditional Gleason score (0.82). Quantitative measures of Gleason pattern 4 predict BCR better than the traditional Gleason score. In men with Gleason 7 prostate cancer, quantitative analysis of the proportion of Gleason pattern 4 (quantitative Gleason score), as well as size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 (size-weighted Gleason score), and a size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 based on the largest tumor nodule significantly improve the predicted risk of biochemical recurrence compared with the traditional Gleason score. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic score to predict mortality during TB treatment in TB/HIV co-infected patients.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc T; Jenkins, Helen E; Graviss, Edward A

2018-01-01

Estimating mortality risk during TB treatment in HIV co-infected patients is challenging for health professionals, especially in a low TB prevalence population, due to the lack of a standardized prognostic system. The current study aimed to develop and validate a simple mortality prognostic scoring system for TB/HIV co-infected patients. Using data from the CDC's Tuberculosis Genotyping Information Management System of TB patients in Texas reported from 01/2010 through 12/2016, age ≥15 years, HIV(+), and outcome being "completed" or "died", we developed and internally validated a mortality prognostic score using multiple logistic regression. Model discrimination was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The model's good calibration was determined by a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test. Among the 450 patients included in the analysis, 57 (12.7%) died during TB treatment. The final prognostic score used six characteristics (age, residence in long-term care facility, meningeal TB, chest x-ray, culture positive, and culture not converted/unknown), which are routinely collected by TB programs. Prognostic scores were categorized into three groups that predicted mortality: low-risk (<20 points), medium-risk (20-25 points) and high-risk (>25 points). The model had good discrimination and calibration (AUC = 0.82; 0.80 in bootstrap validation), and a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.71. Our simple validated mortality prognostic scoring system can be a practical tool for health professionals in identifying TB/HIV co-infected patients with high mortality risk.

Clinical severity score system in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease.

PubMed

López-Alvarez, J; Elliott, J; Pfeiffer, D; Chang, Y-M; Mattin, M; Moonarmart, W; Hezzell, M J; Boswood, A

2015-01-01

Several risk factors already have been determined for dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Risk factors often have been considered in isolation and have not always taken into account additional information provided by the history and physical examination (PE). Data obtained from history and PE of dogs with DMVD provide prognostic information and can be used for risk stratification. Client-owned dogs (n = 244) with DMVD recruited from first opinion practice. Prospective longitudinal follow-up of dogs with DMVD. History and PE data were obtained at 6-month intervals and analyzed with time-dependent Cox models to derive relative risk of cardiac death. Independent hazard ratios were used to derive a clinical severity score (CSS), the prognostic value of which was evaluated by analyzing the median survival times for different risk groups and ROC analysis. Analysis of the progression of CSS over time also was undertaken. History of cough, exercise intolerance, decreased appetite, breathlessness (difficulty breathing) and syncope with PE findings of heart murmur intensity louder than III/VI and absence of respiratory sinus arrhythmia were independently associated with outcome and allowed development of the CSS. Clinical severity score distinguished groups of dogs with significantly different outcomes. Routinely obtained clinical findings allow risk stratification of dogs with DMVD. Results of ancillary diagnostic tests may be complementary to history and PE findings and always should be interpreted in conjunction with these findings. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

PubMed

Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

2015-12-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Countries at Risk: Heightened Human Security Risk to States With Transboundary Water Resources and Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veilleux, J. C.; Sullivan, G. S.; Paola, C.; Starget, A.; Watson, J. E.; Hwang, Y. J.; Picucci, J. A.; Choi, C. S.

2014-12-01

The Countries at Risk project is a global assessment of countries with transboundary water resources that are at risk for conflict because of high human security instability. Building upon Basins at Risk (BAR) research, our team used updated Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database georeferenced social and environmental data, quantitative data from global indices, and qualitative data from news media sources. Our assessment considered a combination of analyzing 15 global indices related to water or human security to identify which countries scored as highest risk in each index. From this information, we were able to assess the highest risk countries' human security risk by using a new human security measurement tool, as well as comparing this analysis to the World Bank's Fragile States Index and the experimental Human Security Index. In addition, we identified which countries have the highest number of shared basins, the highest percentage of territory covered by a transboundary basin, and the highest dependency of withdrawal from transboundary waters from outside their country boundaries. By synthesizing these social and environmental data assessments, we identified five countries to analyze as case studies. These five countries are Afghanistan, China, Iraq, Moldova, and Sudan. We created a series of 30 maps to spatial analyze the relationship between the transboundary basins and social and environmental parameters to include population, institutional capacity, and physical geography by country. Finally, we synthesized our spatial analysis, Human Security Key scores, and current events scored by using the BAR scale to determine what aspects and which basins are most at risk with each country in our case studies and how this concerns future global water resources.

Association of timing of menarche with depressive symptoms and depression in adolescence: Mendelian randomisation study

PubMed Central

Sequeira, Maija-Eliina; Lewis, Sarah J.; Bonilla, Carolina; Smith, George Davey; Joinson, Carol

2017-01-01

Background Observational studies report associations between early menarche and higher levels of depressive symptoms and depression. However, no studies have investigated whether this association is causal. Aims To determine whether earlier menarche is a causal risk factor for depressive symptoms and depression in adolescence. Method The associations between a genetic score for age at menarche and depressive symptoms at 14, 17 and 19 years, and depression at 18 years, were examined using Mendelian randomisation analysis techniques. Results Using a genetic risk score to indicate earlier timing of menarche, we found that early menarche is associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms at 14 years (odds ratio per risk allele 1.02, 95% CI 1.005–1.04, n = 2404). We did not find an association between the early menarche risk score and depressive symptoms or depression after age 14. Conclusions Our results provide evidence for a causal effect of age at menarche on depressive symptoms at age 14. PMID:27491534

Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

2017-09-25

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed consent, more attention should be given to evidence-based and useful communication strategies. NCT03061123. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Optimizing the Use of the AUDIT for Alcohol Screening in College Students

PubMed Central

DeMartini, Kelly S.; Carey, Kate B.

2013-01-01

The screening and brief intervention (SBI) modality of treatment for at-risk college drinking is becoming increasingly popular. A key to effective implementation is use of validated screening tools. While the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) has been validated in adult samples and is often used with college students, research has not yet established optimal cut-off scores to screen for at-risk drinking. A total of 401 current drinkers completed computerized assessments of demographics, family history of alcohol use disorders, alcohol use history, alcohol-related problems, and general health. Of the 401 drinkers, 207 met criteria for at-risk drinking. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that the AUROC of the AUDIT was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.83-0.90). The AUDIT-C (AUROC = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.86--.92) performed significantly better than the AUDIT in the detection of at-risk drinking in the whole sample, and specifically for females. Gender differences emerged in the optimal cut-off scores for the AUDIT-C. A total score of 7 should be used for males and a score of 5 should be used for females. These empirical guidelines may enhance identification of at-risk drinkers in college settings. PMID:22612646

Optimizing the use of the AUDIT for alcohol screening in college students.

PubMed

Demartini, Kelly S; Carey, Kate B

2012-12-01

The screening and brief intervention modality of treatment for at-risk college drinking is becoming increasingly popular. A key to effective implementation is use of validated screening tools. Although the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) has been validated in adult samples and is often used with college students, research has not yet established optimal cutoff scores to screen for at-risk drinking. Four hundred and one current drinkers completed computerized assessments of demographics, family history of alcohol use disorders, alcohol use history, alcohol-related problems, and general health. Of the 401 drinkers, 207 met criteria for at-risk drinking. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that the area under the ROC (AUROC) of the AUDIT was .86 (95% CI [.83, .90]). The first 3 consumption items of the AUDIT (AUDIT-C; AUROC = .89, 95% CI [.86, .92]) performed significantly better than the AUDIT in the detection of at-risk drinking in the whole sample, and specifically for females. Gender differences emerged in the optimal cutoff scores for the AUDIT-C. A total score of 7 should be used for males, and a score of 5 should be used for females. These empirical guidelines may enhance identification of at-risk drinkers in college settings.

Predicting mortality risk in patients undergoing venovenous ECMO for ARDS due to influenza A (H1N1) pneumonia: the ECMOnet score.

PubMed

Pappalardo, Federico; Pieri, Marina; Greco, Teresa; Patroniti, Nicolò; Pesenti, Antonio; Arcadipane, Antonio; Ranieri, V Marco; Gattinoni, Luciano; Landoni, Giovanni; Holzgraefe, Bernhard; Beutel, Gernot; Zangrillo, Alberto

2013-02-01

The decision to start venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO) is commonly based on the severity of respiratory failure, with little consideration of the extrapulmonary organ function. The aim of the study was to identify predictors of mortality and to develop a score allowing a better stratification of patients at the time of VV ECMO initiation. This was a prospective multicenter cohort study on 60 patients with influenza A (H1N1)-associated respiratory distress syndrome participating in the Italian ECMOnet data set in the 2009 pandemic. Criteria for ECMO institution were standardized according to national guidelines. The survival rate in patients treated with ECMO was 68 %. Significant predictors of death before ECMO institution by multivariate analysis were hospital length of stay before ECMO institution (OR = 1.52, 95 % CI 1.12-2.07, p = 0.008); bilirubin (OR = 2.32, 95 % CI 1.52-3.52, p < 0.001), creatinine (OR = 7.38, 95 % CI 1.43-38.11, p = 0.02) and hematocrit values (OR = 0.82, 95 % CI 0.72-0.94, p = 0.006); and mean arterial pressure (OR = 0.92, 95 % CI 0.88-0.97, p < 0.001). The ECMOnet score was developed based on these variables, with a score of 4.5 being the most appropriate cutoff for mortality risk prediction. The high accuracy of the ECMOnet score was further confirmed by ROC analysis (c = 0.857, 95 % CI 0.754-0.959, p < 0.001) and by an independent external validation analysis (c = 0.694, 95 % CI 0.562-0.826, p = 0.004). Mortality risk for patients receiving VV ECMO is correlated to the extrapulmonary organ function at the time of ECMO initiation. The ECMOnet score is a tool for the evaluation of the appropriateness and timing of VV ECMO in acute lung failure.

Scoring Tools for the Analysis of Infant Respiratory Inductive Plethysmography Signals.

PubMed

Robles-Rubio, Carlos Alejandro; Bertolizio, Gianluca; Brown, Karen A; Kearney, Robert E

2015-01-01

Infants recovering from anesthesia are at risk of life threatening Postoperative Apnea (POA). POA events are rare, and so the study of POA requires the analysis of long cardiorespiratory records. Manual scoring is the preferred method of analysis for these data, but it is limited by low intra- and inter-scorer repeatability. Furthermore, recommended scoring rules do not provide a comprehensive description of the respiratory patterns. This work describes a set of manual scoring tools that address these limitations. These tools include: (i) a set of definitions and scoring rules for 6 mutually exclusive, unique patterns that fully characterize infant respiratory inductive plethysmography (RIP) signals; (ii) RIPScore, a graphical, manual scoring software to apply these rules to infant data; (iii) a library of data segments representing each of the 6 patterns; (iv) a fully automated, interactive formal training protocol to standardize the analysis and establish intra- and inter-scorer repeatability; and (v) a quality control method to monitor scorer ongoing performance over time. To evaluate these tools, three scorers from varied backgrounds were recruited and trained to reach a performance level similar to that of an expert. These scorers used RIPScore to analyze data from infants at risk of POA in two separate, independent instances. Scorers performed with high accuracy and consistency, analyzed data efficiently, had very good intra- and inter-scorer repeatability, and exhibited only minor confusion between patterns. These results indicate that our tools represent an excellent method for the analysis of respiratory patterns in long data records. Although the tools were developed for the study of POA, their use extends to any study of respiratory patterns using RIP (e.g., sleep apnea, extubation readiness). Moreover, by establishing and monitoring scorer repeatability, our tools enable the analysis of large data sets by multiple scorers, which is essential for longitudinal and multicenter studies.

[Relationship between job satisfaction and occupational stress in the workers of a thermal power plant].

PubMed

Gu, Gui-zhen; Yu, Shan-fa; Zhou, Wen-hui

2011-12-01

To explore the relationship between job satisfaction and occupational stress in the workers of a thermal power plant. The cluster sampling method was used to investigate 875 workers in a thermal power plant. The job satisfaction, occupational stressors, strains, personalities, meeting strategy and social support were measured using occupational stress instruments, job content questionnaire and effort-reward imbalance questionnaire. There were no significant differences of job satisfaction scores between different groups according to sex, educational level, marriage status, smoking and drinking (P > 0.05). But there were significant differences of job satisfaction scores between different age groups or between different service length groups (P < 0.01). The correlation analysis revealed that job satisfaction scores were related positively to responsibility for persons and things, promotion opportunity, job control, job stabilization, rewards, mental health, positive affectivity, self-esteem, superior support and coworker support scores (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01), negatively to role ambiguity and conflict, job future ambiguity, job demands, negative affectivity, depressive symptoms, patience, and mental locus of work control(P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). The results of variance analysis indicated that the job relationship, responsibility for persons and things, promotion opportunity, job control, job stabilization, reward, mental health, positive affectivity, self-esteem and buffer scores of the workers with high job satisfaction scores were significantly higher than those of workers with moderate and lower job satisfaction scores (P < 0.01), but the role ambiguity and conflict, job future ambiguity, job demands, and depressive symptoms scores and mental locus of work control of the workers with high job satisfaction scores were significantly lower than those of workers with moderate and lower job satisfaction scores (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of job dissatisfaction for workers with low reward was about four times as high as that for workers with high reward (OR = 3.773), the risks of job dissatisfaction for workers with low social support and mental locus of external work control were about two times as high as that for workers with high social support or mental locus of internal work control (OR = 2.419 and 2.219, respectively). The daily life stress, low control strategy, low support strategy, low job control and negative affectivity were risk factors of job dissatisfaction (OR = 1.125 approximately 1.790), but the self-esteem and positive affectivity could reduce the risk of job dissatisfaction. Increasing the decision level, social support, meeting strategy and reward or decreasing the role conflict and ambiguity, demands and negative affectivity could improve worker's job satisfaction level.

TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lah, J; Manger, R; Kim, G

Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinarymore » team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.« less

Association Between Hospital Admission Risk Profile Score and Skilled Nursing or Acute Rehabilitation Facility Discharges in Hospitalized Older Adults.

PubMed

Liu, Stephen K; Montgomery, Justin; Yan, Yu; Mecchella, John N; Bartels, Stephen J; Masutani, Rebecca; Batsis, John A

2016-10-01

To evaluate whether the Hospital Admission Risk Profile (HARP) score is associated with skilled nursing or acute rehabilitation facility discharge after an acute hospitalization. Retrospective cohort study. Inpatient unit of a rural academic medical center. Hospitalized individuals aged 70 and older from October 1, 2013 to June 1, 2014. Participant age at the time of admission, modified Folstein Mini-Mental State Examination score, and self-reported instrumental activities of daily living 2 weeks before admission were used to calculate HARP score. The primary predictor was HARP score, and the primary outcome was discharge disposition (home, facility, deceased). Multivariate analysis was used to evaluate the association between HARP score and discharge disposition, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and length of stay. Four hundred twenty-eight individuals admitted from home were screened and their HARP scores were categorized as low (n = 162, 37.8%), intermediate (n = 157, 36.7%), or high (n = 109, 25.5%). Participants with high HARP scores were significantly more likely to be discharged to a facility (55%) than those with low HARP scores (20%) (P < .001). After adjustment, participants with high HARP scores were more than four times as likely as those with low scores to be discharged to a facility (odds ratio = 4.58, 95% confidence interval = 2.42-8.66). In a population of older hospitalized adults, HARP score (using readily available admission information) identifies individuals at greater risk of skilled nursing or acute rehabilitation facility discharge. Early identification for potential facility discharges may allow for targeted interventions to prevent functional decline, improve informed shared decision-making about post-acute care needs, and expedite discharge planning. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Asymmetry during preseason Functional Movement Screen testing is associated with injury during a junior Australian football season.

PubMed

Chalmers, Samuel; Fuller, Joel T; Debenedictis, Thomas A; Townsley, Samuel; Lynagh, Matthew; Gleeson, Cara; Zacharia, Andrew; Thomson, Stuart; Magarey, Mary

2017-07-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a popular screening tool, however, the postulated relationship between prospective injury and FMS scoring remains sparsely explored in adolescent athletes. The aim of the study was to examine the association between pre-season FMS scores and injuries sustained during one regular season competition in elite adolescent Australian football players. Prospective cohort study. 237 elite junior Australian football players completed FMS testing during the late pre-season phase and had their weekly playing status monitored during the regular season. The definition of an injury was 'a trauma which caused a player to miss a competitive match'. The median composite FMS score was 14 (mean=13.5±2.3). An apriori analysis revealed that the presence of ≥1 asymmetrical sub-test was associated with a moderate increase in the risk of injury (hazard ratio=2.2 [1.0-4.8]; relative risk=1.9; p=0.047; sensitivity=78.4%; specificity=41.0%). Notably, post-hoc analysis identified that the presence of ≥2 asymmetrical sub-tests was associated with an even greater increase in risk of prospective injury (hazard ratio=3.7 [1.6-8.6]; relative risk=2.8; p=0.003; sensitivity=66.7%; specificity=78.0%). Achieving a composite score of ≤14 did not substantially increase the risk of prospective injury (hazard ratio=1.1 [0.5-2.1]; p=0.834). Junior Australian football players demonstrating asymmetrical movement during pre-season FMS testing were more likely to sustain an injury during the regular season than players without asymmetry. Findings suggest that the commonly reported composite FMS threshold score of ≤14 was not associated with injury in elite junior AF players. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of infectious complications associated with blood transfusion in elective spinal surgery-a propensity score matched analysis.

PubMed

Kato, So; Chikuda, Hirotaka; Ohya, Junichi; Oichi, Takeshi; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Takeshita, Katsushi; Tanaka, Sakae; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-01-01

Although the negative aspects of blood transfusion are increasingly recognized, less is known about transfusion-related risks in spinal surgery. This study was designed to determine whether perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion is associated with increased risk of infectious complications after elective spinal surgery. A retrospective cohort study with propensity score matched analysis was carried out. Data of patients with spinal canal stenosis and spondylolisthesis who underwent elective lumbar surgeries (decompression or fusion) were obtained from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, a nationwide administrative inpatient database in Japan. Clinical outcomes included in-hospital death and the occurrence of infectious complications (surgical site infection [SSI], respiratory tract infection, urinary tract infection, and sepsis). Patients' clinical information, including sex, age, type of hospital, preoperative comorbidities, duration of anesthesia, cell saver use, and volume of allogeneic blood transfused, were investigated. Patients transfused with >840 mL (6 units) were excluded. Propensity scores for receiving transfusion were calculated, with one-to-one matching based on estimated propensity scores to adjust for patients' baseline characteristics. The proportions of complications were compared in patients with and without transfusions. This study was funded by grants from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. Of the 84,650 patients identified, 5,289 patients (6.1%) received transfusions, with 4,436 (5.2%) receiving up to 840 mL. One-to-one propensity score matching resulted in 4,275 pairs with and without transfusion. Patients transfused were at increased risk of SSI (odds ratio [OR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.5; p<.001) and urinary tract infection (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.2; p<.001) than those not transfused. Allogeneic blood transfusion after elective lumbar surgery was associated with increased risks of SSI and urinary tract infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a New Outcome Prediction Model in Early-stage Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oral Cavity Based on Histopathologic Parameters With Multivariate Analysis: The Aditi-Nuzhat Lymph-node Prediction Score (ANLPS) System.

PubMed

Arora, Aditi; Husain, Nuzhat; Bansal, Ankur; Neyaz, Azfar; Jaiswal, Ritika; Jain, Kavitha; Chaturvedi, Arun; Anand, Nidhi; Malhotra, Kiranpreet; Shukla, Saumya

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the histopathologic parameters that predict lymph node metastasis in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and to design a new assessment score on the basis of these parameters that could ultimately allow for changes in treatment decisions or aid clinicians in deciding whether there is a need for close follow-up or to perform early lymph node dissection. Histopathologic parameters of 336 cases of OSCC with stage cT1/T2 N0M0 disease were analyzed. The location of the tumor and the type of surgery used for the management of the tumor were recorded for all patients. The parameters, including T stage, grading of tumor, tumor budding, tumor thickness, depth of invasion, shape of tumor nest, lymphoid response at tumor-host interface and pattern of invasion, eosinophilic reaction, foreign-body giant cell reaction, lymphovascular invasion, and perineural invasion, were examined. Ninety-two patients had metastasis in lymph nodes. On univariate and multivariate analysis, independent variables for predicting lymph node metastasis in descending order were depth of invasion (P=0.003), pattern of invasion (P=0.007), perineural invasion (P=0.014), grade (P=0.028), lymphovascular invasion (P=0.038), lymphoid response (P=0.037), and tumor budding (P=0.039). We designed a scoring system on the basis of these statistical results and tested it. Cases with scores ranging from 7 to 11, 12 to 16, and ≥17 points showed LN metastasis in 6.4%, 22.8%, and 77.1% of cases, respectively. The difference between these 3 groups in relation to nodal metastasis was very significant (P<0.0001). A patient at low risk for lymph node metastasis (score, 7 to 11) had a 5-year survival of 93%, moderate-risk patients (score, 12 to 16) had a 5-year survival of 67%, and high-risk patients (score, 17 to 21) had a 5-year survival of 39%. The risk of lymph node metastasis in OSCC is influenced by many histologic parameters that are not routinely analyzed in pathologic reports. These significant independent factors were graded to design a scoring system that permits accurate evaluation of the risk of metastasis with accuracy independent of the traditional TNM system or isolated histologic parameters. The need for neck node dissection can be predicted depending upon the scores obtained.

Single Motherhood, Alcohol Dependence, and Smoking During Pregnancy: A Propensity Score Analysis.

PubMed

Waldron, Mary; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Lian, Min; Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N; Miller, Ruth Huang; Lynskey, Michael T; Knopik, Valerie S; Madden, Pamela A F; Heath, Andrew C

2017-09-01

Few studies linking single motherhood and maternal smoking during pregnancy consider correlated risk from problem substance use beyond history of smoking and concurrent use of alcohol. In the present study, we used propensity score methods to examine whether the risk of smoking during pregnancy associated with single motherhood is the result of potential confounders, including alcohol dependence. Data were drawn from mothers participating in a birth cohort study of their female like-sex twin offspring (n = 257 African ancestry; n = 1,711 European or other ancestry). We conducted standard logistic regression models predicting smoking during pregnancy from single motherhood at twins' birth, followed by propensity score analyses comparing single-mother and two-parent families stratified by predicted probability of single motherhood. In standard models, single motherhood predicted increased risk of smoking during pregnancy in European ancestry but not African ancestry families. In propensity score analyses, rates of smoking during pregnancy were elevated in single-mother relative to two-parent European ancestry families across much of the spectrum a priori risk of single motherhood. Among African ancestry families, within-strata comparisons of smoking during pregnancy by single-mother status were nonsignificant. These findings highlight single motherhood as a unique risk factor for smoking during pregnancy in European ancestry mothers, over and above alcohol dependence. Additional research is needed to identify risks, beyond single motherhood, associated with smoking during pregnancy in African ancestry mothers.

Endovascular treatment of thoracic disease: patient selection and a proposal of a risk score.

PubMed

Rodrigues Alves, Claudia Maria; da Fonseca, José Honório Palma; de Souza, José Augusto Marcondes; Camargo Carvalho, Antonio Carlos; Buffolo, Enio

2002-04-01

Although selection criteria and subgroup analysis are still in the early developmental stages, endovascular treatment of aortic disease has become an alternative to surgery for many patients. From November 1996 to November 1999, 49 patients were treated with a self-expandable endoprosthesis at our institution. Most patients had acute aortic dissections. Thirteen of these patients did not follow the anatomic selection protocol. We retrospectively analyzed these patients to compare our numerical risk score (which includes clinical and anatomic criteria) between groups with or without success and between groups that followed the anatomic protocol (P) or did not follow the anatomic protocol (E [exception]). Success rates were similar in groups P and E, although mortality rates were higher in group E. Patients from group E had longer procedures and required multiple stents more frequently. The proposed risk score was able to differentiate between groups with or without success, as well as between groups P and E. In order to reduce mortality and morbidity rates, careful selection criteria must be followed when treating patients endovascularly. Although it is time-consuming, using objective criteria can help select patients for endovascular treatment. We propose that patients with a risk score higher than 11 should only undergo percutaneous treatment when they have an unacceptably high surgical risk, and even so only after a detailed discussion of the risks.

Missed opportunity for alcohol problem prevention among army active duty service members postdeployment.

PubMed

Larson, Mary Jo; Mohr, Beth A; Adams, Rachel Sayko; Wooten, Nikki R; Williams, Thomas V

2014-08-01

We identified to what extent the Department of Defense postdeployment health surveillance program identifies at-risk drinking, alone or in conjunction with psychological comorbidities, and refers service members who screen positive for additional assessment or care. We completed a cross-sectional analysis of 333 803 US Army active duty members returning from Iraq or Afghanistan deployments in fiscal years 2008 to 2011 with a postdeployment health assessment. Alcohol measures included 2 based on self-report quantity-frequency items-at-risk drinking (positive Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test alcohol consumption questions [AUDIT-C] screen) and severe alcohol problems (AUDIT-C score of 8 or higher)-and another based on the interviewing provider's assessment. Nearly 29% of US Army active duty members screened positive for at-risk drinking, and 5.6% had an AUDIT-C score of 8 or higher. Interviewing providers identified potential alcohol problems among only 61.8% of those screening positive for at-risk drinking and only 74.9% of those with AUDIT-C scores of 8 or higher. They referred for a follow-up visit to primary care or another setting only 29.2% of at-risk drinkers and only 35.9% of those with AUDIT-C scores of 8 or higher. This study identified missed opportunities for early intervention for at-risk drinking. Future research should evaluate the effect of early intervention on long-term outcomes.

The laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing fasciitis (LRINEC) scoring: the diagnostic and potential prognostic role.

PubMed

El-Menyar, Ayman; Asim, Mohammad; Mudali, Insolvisagan N; Mekkodathil, Ahammed; Latifi, Rifat; Al-Thani, Hassan

2017-03-07

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a devastating soft tissue infection associated with potentially poor outcomes. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score has been introduced as a diagnostic tool for NF. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of LRINEC scoring in NF patients. A retrospective analysis was conducted for patients who were admitted with NF between 2000 and 2013. Based on LRINEC points, patients were classified into (Group 1: LRINEC < 6 and Group 2: LRINEC ≥ 6). The 2 groups were analyzed and compared. Primary outcomes were hospital length of stay, septic shock and hospital death. A total of 294 NF cases were identified with a mean age 50.9 ± 15 years. When compared to Group1, patients in Group 2 were 5 years older (p = 0.009), more likely to have diabetes mellitus (61 vs 41%, p < 0.001), Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection (p = 0.004), greater Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (11.5 ± 3 vs 8 ± 2, p = 0.001), and prolonged intensive care (median 7 vs 5 days) and hospital length of stay (22 vs 11 days, p = 0.001). Septic shock (37 vs. 15%, p = 0.001) and mortality (28.8 vs. 15.0%, p = 0.005) were also significantly higher in Group 2 patients. Using Receiver operating curve, cutoff LRINEC point for mortality was 8.5 with area under the curve of 0.64. Pearson correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between LRINEC and SOFA scorings (r = 0.51, p < 0.002). Early diagnosis, simplified risk stratification and on-time management are vital to achieve better outcomes in patients with NF. Beside its diagnostic role, LRINEC scoring could predict worse hospital outcomes in patients with NF and simply identify the high-risk patients. However, further prospective studies are needed to support this finding.

Tailoring the implementation of new biomarkers based on their added predictive value in subgroups of individuals.

PubMed

van Giessen, A; Moons, K G M; de Wit, G A; Verschuren, W M M; Boer, J M A; Koffijberg, H

2015-01-01

The value of new biomarkers or imaging tests, when added to a prediction model, is currently evaluated using reclassification measures, such as the net reclassification improvement (NRI). However, these measures only provide an estimate of improved reclassification at population level. We present a straightforward approach to characterize subgroups of reclassified individuals in order to tailor implementation of a new prediction model to individuals expected to benefit from it. In a large Dutch population cohort (n = 21,992) we classified individuals to low (< 5%) and high (≥ 5%) fatal cardiovascular disease risk by the Framingham risk score (FRS) and reclassified them based on the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE). Subsequently, we characterized the reclassified individuals and, in case of heterogeneity, applied cluster analysis to identify and characterize subgroups. These characterizations were used to select individuals expected to benefit from implementation of SCORE. Reclassification after applying SCORE in all individuals resulted in an NRI of 5.00% (95% CI [-0.53%; 11.50%]) within the events, 0.06% (95% CI [-0.08%; 0.22%]) within the nonevents, and a total NRI of 0.051 (95% CI [-0.004; 0.116]). Among the correctly downward reclassified individuals cluster analysis identified three subgroups. Using the characterizations of the typically correctly reclassified individuals, implementing SCORE only in individuals expected to benefit (n = 2,707,12.3%) improved the NRI to 5.32% (95% CI [-0.13%; 12.06%]) within the events, 0.24% (95% CI [0.10%; 0.36%]) within the nonevents, and a total NRI of 0.055 (95% CI [0.001; 0.123]). Overall, the risk levels for individuals reclassified by tailored implementation of SCORE were more accurate. In our empirical example the presented approach successfully characterized subgroups of reclassified individuals that could be used to improve reclassification and reduce implementation burden. In particular when newly added biomarkers or imaging tests are costly or burdensome such a tailored implementation strategy may save resources and improve (cost-)effectiveness.

Adherence to preferable behavior for lipid control by high-risk dyslipidemic Japanese patients under pravastatin treatment: the APPROACH-J study.

PubMed

Kitagawa, Yasuhisa; Teramoto, Tamio; Daida, Hiroyuki

2012-01-01

We evaluated the impact of adherence to preferable behavior on serum lipid control assessed by a self-reported questionnaire in high-risk patients taking pravastatin for primary prevention of coronary artery disease. High-risk patients taking pravastatin were followed for 2 years. Questionnaire surveys comprising 21 questions, including 18 questions concerning awareness of health, and current status of diet, exercise, and drug therapy, were conducted at baseline and after 1 year. Potential domains were established by factor analysis from the results of questionnaires, and adherence scores were calculated in each domain. The relationship between adherence scores and lipid values during the 1-year treatment period was analyzed by each domain using multiple regression analysis. A total of 5,792 patients taking pravastatin were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis showed a significant correlation in terms of "Intake of high fat/cholesterol/sugar foods" (regression coefficient -0.58, p=0.0105) and "Adherence to instructions for drug therapy" (regression coefficient -6.61, p<0.0001). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) values were significantly lower in patients who had an increase in the adherence score in the "Awareness of health" domain compared with those with a decreased score. There was a significant correlation between high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C) values and "Awareness of health" (regression coefficient 0.26; p= 0.0037), "Preferable dietary behaviors" (regression coefficient 0.75; p<0.0001), and "Exercise" (regression coefficient 0.73; p= 0.0002). Similar relations were seen with triglycerides. In patients who have a high awareness of their health, a positive attitude toward lipid-lowering treatment including diet, exercise, and high adherence to drug therapy, is related with favorable overall lipid control even in patients under treatment with pravastatin.

Children's cognitive ability from 4 to 9 years old as a function of prenatal cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and maternal verbal intelligence.

PubMed

Bennett, David S; Bendersky, Margaret; Lewis, Michael

2008-07-01

This study examined the effects of prenatal cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and maternal verbal intelligence on children's cognitive ability. Gender and age were examined as moderators of potential cocaine exposure effects. The Stanford-Binet IV intelligence test was administered to 231 children (91 cocaine exposed, 140 unexposed) at ages 4, 6, and 9 years. Neonatal medical risk and other prenatal exposures (alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana) were also examined for their unique effects on child IQ. Mixed models analysis indicated that prenatal cocaine exposure interacted with gender, as cocaine-exposed boys had lower composite IQ scores. Age at assessment did not moderate this relation, indicating that cocaine-exposed boys had lower IQs across this age period. A stimulating home environment and high maternal verbal IQ also predicted higher composite IQ scores. Cocaine-exposed boys had lower scores on the Abstract/Visual Reasoning subscale, with trends for lower scores on the Short-Term Memory and Verbal Reasoning subscales, as exposure effects were observed across domains. The findings indicate that cocaine exposure continues to place children at risk for mild cognitive deficits into preadolescence. Possible mechanisms for the Exposure x Gender interaction are discussed.

[Cesarean after labor induction: Risk factors and prediction score].

PubMed

Branger, B; Dochez, V; Gervier, S; Winer, N

2018-05-01

The objective of the study is to determine the risk factors for caesarean section at the time of labor induction, to establish a prediction algorithm, to evaluate its relevance and to compare the results with observation. A retrospective study was carried out over a year at Nantes University Hospital with 941 cervical ripening and labor inductions (24.1%) terminated by 167 caesarean sections (17.8%). Within the cohort, a case-control study was conducted with 147 caesarean sections and 148 vaginal deliveries. A multivariate analysis was carried out with a logistic regression allowing the elaboration of an equation of prediction and an ROC curve and the confrontation between the prediction and the reality. In univariate analysis, six variables were significant: nulliparity, small size of the mother, history of scarried uterus, use of prostaglandins as a mode of induction, unfavorable Bishop score<6, variety of posterior release. In multivariate analysis, five variables were significant: nulliparity, maternal size, maternal BMI, scar uterus and Bishop score. The most predictive model corresponded to an area under the curve of 0.86 (0.82-0.90) with a correct prediction percentage ("well classified") of 67.6% for a caesarean section risk of 80%. The prediction criteria would make it possible to inform the woman and the couple about the potential risk of Caesarean section in urgency or to favor a planned Caesarean section or a low-lying attempt on more objective, repeatable and transposable arguments in a medical team. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Potential Utility of the SYNTAX Score 2 in Patients Undergoing Left Main Angioplasty

PubMed Central

Madeira, Sérgio; Raposo, Luís; Brito, João; Rodrigues, Ricardo; Gonçalves, Pedro; Teles, Rui; Gabriel, Henrique; Machado, Francisco; Almeida, Manuel; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Background The revascularization strategy of the left main disease is determinant for clinical outcomes. Objective We sought to 1) validate and compare the performance of the SYNTAX Score 1 and 2 for predicting major cardiovascular events at 4 years in patients who underwent unprotected left main angioplasty and 2) evaluate the long-term outcome according to the SYNTAX score 2-recommended revascularization strategy. Methods We retrospectively studied 132 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent unprotected left main angioplasty between March 1999 and December 2010. Discrimination and calibration of both models were assessed by ROC curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results Total event rate was 26.5% at 4 years.The AUC for the SYNTAX Score 1 and SYNTAX Score 2 for percutaneous coronary intervention, was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.49-0.73) and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.57-0.78), respectively. Despite a good overall adjustment for both models, the SYNTAX Score 2 tended to underpredict risk. In the 47 patients (36%) who should have undergone surgery according to the SYNTAX Score 2, event rate was numerically higher (30% vs. 25%; p=0.54), and for those with a higher difference between the two SYNTAX Score 2 scores (Percutaneous coronary intervention vs. Coronary artery by-pass graft risk estimation greater than 5.7%), event rate was almost double (40% vs. 22%; p=0.2). Conclusion The SYNTAX Score 2 may allow a better and individualized risk stratification of patients who need revascularization of an unprotected left main coronary artery. Prospective studies are needed for further validation. PMID:27007223

[Establishment of risk evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer and its predictive value].

PubMed

Zhao, Junjie; Zhou, Rongjian; Zhang, Qi; Shu, Ping; Li, Haojie; Wang, Xuefei; Shen, Zhenbin; Liu, Fenglin; Chen, Weidong; Qin, Jing; Sun, Yihong

2017-01-25

To establish an evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer, and to assess its clinical significance. Clinical and pathologic data of the consecutive cases of gastric cancer admitted between April 2015 and December 2015 in Department of General Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 710 patients were enrolled in the study after 18 patients with other distant metastasis were excluded. The correlations between peritoneal metastasis and different factors were studied through univariate (Pearson's test or Fisher's exact test) and multivariate analyses (Binary Logistic regression). Independent predictable factors for peritoneal metastasis were combined to establish a risk evaluation model (nomogram). The nomogram was created with R software using the 'rms' package. In the nomogram, each factor had different scores, and every patient could have a total score by adding all the scores of each factor. A higher total score represented higher risk of peritoneal metastasis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the established nomogram. Delong. Delong. Clarke-Pearson test was used to compare the difference of the area under the curve (AUC). The cut-off value was determined by the AUC, when the ROC curve had the biggest AUC, the model had the best sensitivity and specificity. Among 710 patients, 47 patients had peritoneal metastasis (6.6%), including 30 male (30/506, 5.9%) and 17 female (17/204, 8.3%); 31 were ≥ 60 years old (31/429, 7.2%); 38 had tumor ≥ 3 cm(38/461, 8.2%). Lauren classification indicated that 2 patients were intestinal type(2/245, 0.8%), 8 patients were mixed type(8/208, 3.8%), 11 patients were diffuse type(11/142, 7.7%), and others had no associated data. CA19-9 of 13 patients was ≥ 37 kU/L(13/61, 21.3%); CA125 of 11 patients was ≥ 35 kU/L(11/36, 30.6%); CA72-4 of 11 patients was ≥ 10 kU/L(11/39, 28.2%). Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 26 patients was ≥ 2.37(26/231, 11.3%). Multivariate analysis showed that Lauren classification (HR=8.95, 95%CI:1.32-60.59, P=0.025), CA125(HR=17.45, 95%CI:5.54-54.89, P=0.001), CA72-4(HR=20.06, 95%CI:5.05-79.68, P=0.001), and NLR (HR=4.16, 95%CI:1.17-14.75, P=0.032) were independent risk factors of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer. In the nomogram, the highest score was 241, including diffuse or mixed Lauren classification (54 score), CA125 ≥ 35 kU/L (66 score), CA72-4 ≥ 10 kU/L (100 score), and NLR ≥ 2.37 (21 score), which represented a highest risk of peritoneal metastasis (more than 90%). The AUC of nomogram was 0.912, which was superior than any single variable (AUC of Lauren classification: 0.678; AUC of CA125: 0.720; AUC of CA72-4: 0.792; AUC of NLR: 0.613, all P=0.000). The total score of nomogram increased according to the TNM stage, and was highest in the peritoneal metastasis group (F=49.1, P=0.000). When the cut-off value calculated by ROC analysis was set at 140, the model could best balanced the sensitivity (0.79) and the specificity (0.87). Only 5% of patients had peritoneal metastasis when their nomogram scores were lower than 140, while 58% of patients had peritoneal metastasis when their scores were ≥ 140(χ 2 =69.1, P=0.000). The risk evaluation model established with Lauren classification, CA125, CA72-4 and NLR can effectively predict the risk of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer, and provide the reference to preoperative staging and choice of therapeutic strategy.

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

PubMed Central

de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

2016-01-01

Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

PubMed

de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

Assessment of non‐vertebral fracture risk in postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Roux, Christian; Briot, Karine; Horlait, Stéphane; Varbanov, Alex; Watts, Nelson B; Boonen, Steven

2007-01-01

Background Non‐vertebral (NV) fractures are responsible for a great amount of morbidity, mortality and cost attributable to osteoporosis. Objectives To identify risk factors for NV fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, and to design an assessment tool for prediction of these fractures. Methods 2546 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis included in the placebo groups of three risedronate controlled trials were included (mean age 72 years, mean femoral T‐score −2.5; 60% and 53% of patients with prevalent vertebral and NV fractures, respectively). Over 3 years, 222 NV fractures were observed. Baseline data on 14 risk factors were included in a logistic regression analysis. Results 6 risk factors were associated with NV fracture risk: prevalent NV fracture (p = 0.004), number of prevalent vertebral fractures (p<0.001), femoral T‐score (p = 0.031), serum level of 25‐hydroxyvitamin D (p<0.001), age (p = 0.012) and height (p = 0.037). An NV risk index was developed by converting the multivariate logistic equation into an additive score. In the group of women with a score ⩾2.1, the incidence of NV fracture was 13.2% (95% CI 11.1 to 15.3), 1.5 times higher than that of the general population. Conclusions The NV risk index is a convenient tool for selection of patients with osteoporosis with a high risk for NV fractures, and may help to choose from available treatments those with a proven efficacy for reduction of NV fracture risk. PMID:17314119

Apgar score and dental caries risk in the primary dentition of five year olds.

PubMed

Sanders, A E; Slade, G D

2010-09-01

Conditions in utero and early life underlie risk for several childhood disorders. This study tested the hypothesis that the Apgar score predicted dental caries in the primary dentition. A retrospective cohort study conducted in 2003 examined associations between conditions at birth and early life with dental caries experience at five years. Dental examination data for a random sample of five-year-old South Australian children were obtained from School Dental Service electronic records. A questionnaire mailed to the parents obtained information about neonatal status at delivery (five-minute Apgar score, birthweight, plurality, gestational age) and details about birth order, weaning, and behavioural, familial and sociodemographic characteristics. Of the 1398 sampled children with a completed questionnaire (response rate=64.6%), 1058 were singleton term deliveries among whom prevalence of dental caries was 40.1%. In weighted log-binomial regression analysis, children with an Apgar score of <=8 relative to a score of 9-10 had greater probability of dental caries in the primary dentition after adjusting for sociodemographic and behavioural covariates and water fluoridation concentration (adjusted PR=1.47, 95% CI=1.11, 1.95). Readily accessible markers of early life, such as the Apgar score, may guide clinicians in identifying children at potentially heightened risk for dental caries and aid decision-making in allocating preventive services.

"Couldn't you have done just as well without the screening?". A qualitative study of benefits from screening as perceived by people without a high cardiovascular risk score.

PubMed

Nielsen, Karen-Dorthe Bach; Dyhr, Lise; Lauritzen, Torsten; Malterud, Kirsti

2009-01-01

To explore how individuals whose health screening does not reveal a high cardiovascular risk score (CRS) interpret and respond to this result. Qualitative semi-structured interviews. Purposeful sampling reflected variations in age, gender, and self-rated health within the sample. Analysis and interpretation were informed by the Health Belief Model concerning individuals' cues to act when told there is a health threat, and by Hollnagel and Malterud's theories about personal self-assessed health resources. Participants were recruited among participants without a high cardiovascular risk score in a Danish health-screening project. Seven men and 15 women aged 36-50 years with a low or moderate cardiovascular risk score. The screening confirmed the participants' feeling of being in good health and they put emphasis on this acquired peace of mind. Participants used the results to eliminate worries and confirm their lifestyle up to now but were aware that the results gave no guarantee that there was nothing the matter elsewhere. Some paid a price for the reassurance since they had to undergo further examinations, had unfulfilled expectations, or were irritated at not being left in peace with their reassurance. Screened individuals who were shown not to have a high risk score appear to be reassured and confirmed in their own feeling of being healthy, and to be aware of the limitations of the screening. Consideration should be given to the possible risk of creating either insecurity or over-complacency through population screening.

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score predicts hospital charges and resource use after aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Arnaoutakis, George J; George, Timothy J; Alejo, Diane E; Merlo, Christian A; Baumgartner, William A; Cameron, Duke E; Shah, Ashish S

2011-09-01

The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted mortality risk score on resource use has not been previously studied. We hypothesize that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk scores in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement are associated with greater hospital charges. Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing aortic valve replacement at The Johns Hopkins Hospital over a 10-year period (January 2000 to December 2009) were reviewed. The current Society of Thoracic Surgeons formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles, index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with rank-sum and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Linear regression and Spearman's coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. A total of 553 patients underwent aortic valve replacement during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for aortic valve replacement. Median charges were greater in the upper quartile of patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (quartiles 1-3, $39,949 [interquartile range, 32,708-51,323] vs quartile 4, $62,301 [interquartile range, 45,952-97,103], P < .01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient, 0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.07; P < .01). Spearman's correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score was associated with an added $3000 in hospital charges. This is the first study to show that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score predicts greater charges after aortic valve replacement. As competing therapies, such as percutaneous valve replacement, emerge to treat high-risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource use. Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Technical feasibility and validation of a coronary artery calcium scoring system using CT coronary angiography images.

PubMed

Pavitt, Christopher W; Harron, Katie; Lindsay, Alistair C; Zielke, Sayeh; Ray, Robin; Gordon, Daniel; Rubens, Michael B; Padley, Simon P; Nicol, Edward D

2016-05-01

We validate a novel CT coronary angiography (CCTA) coronary calcium scoring system. Calcium was quantified on CCTA images using a new patient-specific attenuation threshold: mean + 2SD of intra-coronary contrast density (HU). Using 335 patient data sets a conversion factor (CF) for predicting CACS from CCTA scores (CCTAS) was derived and validated in a separate cohort (n = 168). Bland-Altman analysis and weighted kappa for MESA centiles and Agatston risk groupings were calculated. Multivariable linear regression yielded a CF: CACS = (1.185 × CCTAS) + (0.002 × CCTAS × attenuation threshold). When applied to CCTA data sets there was excellent correlation (r = 0.95; p < 0.0001) and agreement (mean difference -10.4 [95% limits of agreement -258.9 to 238.1]) with traditional calcium scores. Agreement was better for calcium scores below 500; however, MESA percentile agreement was better for high risk patients. Risk stratification was excellent (Agatston groups k = 0.88 and MESA centiles k = 0.91). Eliminating the dedicated CACS scan decreased patient radiation exposure by approximately one-third. CCTA calcium scores can accurately predict CACS using a simple, individualized, semiautomated approach reducing acquisition time and radiation exposure when evaluating patients for CAD. This method is not affected by the ROI location, imaging protocol, or tube voltage strengthening its clinical applicability. • Coronary calcium scores can be reliably determined on contrast-enhanced cardiac CT • This score can accurately risk stratify patients • Elimination of a dedicated calcium scan reduces patient radiation by a third.

Incremental prognostic value of the SYNTAX score to late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance images for patients with stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Kato, Shingo; Saito, Naka; Kirigaya, Hidekuni; Gyotoku, Daiki; Iinuma, Naoki; Kusakawa, Yuka; Iguchi, Kohei; Nakachi, Tatsuya; Fukui, Kazuki; Futaki, Masaaki; Iwasawa, Tae; Taguri, Masataka; Kimura, Kazuo; Umemura, Satoshi

2016-06-01

The prognostic significance of the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and cardiac surgery) score has recently been demonstrated in patients with stable multivessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). The present study determines whether adding the SYNTAX score to Framingham risk score (FRS), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and presence of myocardial infarction (MI) by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging can improve the risk stratification in patients with stable CAD. We calculated the SYNTAX score in 161 patients with stable CAD (mean age: 66 ± 10 years old). During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 56 (35 %) of 161 patients developed cardiovascular events defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, cerebral infarction, unstable angina pectoris, hospitalization due to heart failure and revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis selected triglycerides [hazard ratio (HR): 1.005 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.008), p < 0.008], presence of LGE [HR: 6.329 (95 % CI: 2.662-15.05), p < 0.001] and the SYNTAX score [HR: 1.085 (95 % CI: 1.044-1.127), p < 0.001] as risk factors for future cardiovascular events. Adding the SYNTAX score to FRS, EF and LGE significantly improved the net reclassification index (NRI) [40.4 % (95 % CI: 18.1-54.8 %), p < 0.05] with an increase in C-statistics of 0.089 (from 0.707 to 0.796). An increase in C-statistics and significant improvement of NRI showed that adding the SYNTAX score to the FRS, LVEF and LGE incrementally improved risk stratification in patient with stable CAD.

Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

2016-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

Imitative suicide in a cohesive organization: observations from a case study.

PubMed

Malcolm, A T; Janisse, M P

1994-12-01

Three suicides occurred within 3 years in a military unit of 35 individuals. This represented an annual rate 220 times the North American average. A clinical intervention was requested by medical authorities, the goal being to minimize the risk of further deaths. Group and individual therapy was conducted over 3 days and ongoing referrals were made as necessary. In addition, measures of anxiety, depression, and hostility were obtained from this unit and from a unit equivalent in size and job description to examine whether these constructs could be used diagnostically. Analysis of the data indicated that differences in mean scores between the units yielded potentially misleading information, although on an individual basis scores were useful in identifying clients at risk of suicide. When those who personally knew one or more of the decreased were compared with those who did not, variability of scores in conjunction with interviews was helpful in identifying relatively high-risk subgroups.

Labour dystocia--risk of recurrence and instrumental delivery in following labour--a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sandström, A; Cnattingius, S; Wikström, A K; Stephansson, O

2012-12-01

To investigate risk of recurrence of labour dystocia and mode of delivery in second labour after taking first labour and fetal and maternal characteristics into account. A population-based cohort study. The Swedish Medical Birth Register from 1992 to 2006. A total of 239 953 women who gave birth to their first and second singleton infants in cephalic presentation at ≥ 37 weeks of gestation with spontaneous onset of labour. We used logistic regression analysis to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios. Labour dystocia and mode of delivery in second labour. Overall labour dystocia affected only 12% of women with previous dystocia. Regardless of mode of first delivery, rates of dystocia in the second labour were higher in women with than without previous dystocia, but were more pronounced in women with previous caesarean section (34%). Analyses with risk score groups for dystocia (risk factors were long interpregnancy interval, maternal age ≥ 35 years, obesity, short maternal stature, not cohabiting and post-term pregnancy) showed that risk of instrumental delivery in second labour increased with previous dystocia and increasing risk score. Among women with trial of labour after caesarean section with previous dystocia and a risk score of 3 or more, 66% had a vaginal instrumental or caesarean delivery (17 and 49%, respectively). In women with trial of labour after caesarean section without previous dystocia and a risk score of 0, corresponding risk was 32% (14 and 18%, respectively). Previous labour dystocia increases the risk of dystocia in subsequent delivery. Taking first labour and fetal and maternal characteristics into account is important in the risk assessments for dystocia and instrumental delivery in second labour. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing

Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for menmore » with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.« less

Carotid intima media thickness and plaques can predict the occurrence of ischemic cerebrovascular events.

PubMed

Prati, Patrizio; Tosetto, Alberto; Vanuzzo, Diego; Bader, Giovanni; Casaroli, Marco; Canciani, Luigi; Castellani, Sergio; Touboul, Pierre-Jean

2008-09-01

The clinical usefulness of noninvasive measurement of carotid intima media thickness and plaque visualization in the general population is still uncertain. We evaluated the age-specific incidence rates of cerebrovascular events in a cohort of 1348 subjects randomly taken from the census list of San Daniele Township and followed for a mean period of 12.7 years. The association among common carotid intima media thickness, measured at baseline, arterial risk factors, and incidence of ischemic cerebrovascular events was modeled using Poisson regression. The predictive ability of common carotid intima media thickness over arterial risk factors (summarized in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score) was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. During the follow-up, 115 subjects developed nonfatal ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or vascular death, which were the predefined study end points. After adjustment for age and sex, hypertension, diabetes, common carotid intima media thickness above 1 mm, and carotid plaques were all independent risk factors for development of vascular events. Inclusion of carotid findings (presence of common carotid intima media thickness above 1 mm or carotid plaques) resulted in a predictive power higher than Framingham Stroke Risk Score alone only on for those subjects with a Framingham Stroke Risk Score over 20%. Although common carotid intima media thickness and presence of carotid plaques are known to be risk factors for the development of vascular events and to be independent from the conventional risk factors summarized in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, their contribution to individual risk prediction is limited. Further studies will be required to address the role of carotid ultrasonography in the primary prevention of high-risk subjects.

Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

PubMed

Zhao, Lue Ping; Carlsson, Annelie; Larsson, Helena Elding; Forsander, Gun; Ivarsson, Sten A; Kockum, Ingrid; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Marcus, Claude; Persson, Martina; Samuelsson, Ulf; Örtqvist, Eva; Pyo, Chul-Woo; Bolouri, Hamid; Zhao, Michael; Nelson, Wyatt C; Geraghty, Daniel E; Lernmark, Åke

2017-11-01

It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10 -92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new molecular predictor of distant recurrence in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer adds independent information to conventional clinical risk factors.

PubMed

Filipits, Martin; Rudas, Margaretha; Jakesz, Raimund; Dubsky, Peter; Fitzal, Florian; Singer, Christian F; Dietze, Otto; Greil, Richard; Jelen, Andrea; Sevelda, Paul; Freibauer, Christa; Müller, Volkmar; Jänicke, Fritz; Schmidt, Marcus; Kölbl, Heinz; Rody, Achim; Kaufmann, Manfred; Schroth, Werner; Brauch, Hiltrud; Schwab, Matthias; Fritz, Peter; Weber, Karsten E; Feder, Inke S; Hennig, Guido; Kronenwett, Ralf; Gehrmann, Mathias; Gnant, Michael

2011-09-15

According to current guidelines, molecular tests predicting the outcome of breast cancer patients can be used to assist in making treatment decisions after consideration of conventional markers. We developed and validated a gene expression signature predicting the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy. RNA levels assessed by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue were used to calculate a risk score (Endopredict, EP) consisting of eight cancer-related and three reference genes. EP was combined with nodal status and tumor size into a comprehensive risk score, EPclin. Both prespecified risk scores including cutoff values to determine a risk group for each patient (low and high) were validated independently in patients from two large randomized phase III trials [Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group (ABCSG)-6: n = 378, ABCSG-8: n = 1,324]. In both validation cohorts, continuous EP was an independent predictor of distant recurrence in multivariate analysis (ABCSG-6: P = 0.010, ABCSG-8: P < 0.001). Combining Adjuvant!Online, quantitative ER, Ki67, and treatment with EP yielded a prognostic power significantly superior to the clinicopathologic factors alone [c-indices: 0.764 vs. 0.750, P = 0.024 (ABCSG-6) and 0.726 vs. 0.701, P = 0.003 (ABCSG-8)]. EPclin had c-indices of 0.788 and 0.732 and resulted in 10-year distant recurrence rates of 4% and 4% in EPclin low-risk and 28% and 22% in EPclin high-risk patients in ABCSG-6 (P < 0.001) and ABCSG-8 (P < 0.001), respectively. The multigene EP risk score provided additional prognostic information to the risk of distant recurrence of breast cancer patients, independent from clinicopathologic parameters. The EPclin score outperformed all conventional clinicopathologic risk factors. ©2011 AACR.

A simple validated method for predicting the risk of hospitalization for worsening of heart failure in ambulatory patients: the Redin-SCORE.

PubMed

Álvarez-García, Jesús; Ferrero-Gregori, Andreu; Puig, Teresa; Vázquez, Rafael; Delgado, Juan; Pascual-Figal, Domingo; Alonso-Pulpón, Luis; González-Juanatey, José R; Rivera, Miguel; Worner, Fernando; Bardají, Alfredo; Cinca, Juan

2015-08-01

Prevention of hospital readmissions is one of the main objectives in the management of patients with heart failure (HF). Most of the models predicting readmissions are based on data extracted from hospitalized patients rather than from outpatients. Our objective was to develop a validated score predicting 1-month and 1-year risk of readmission for worsening of HF in ambulatory patients. A cohort of 2507 ambulatory patients with chronic HF was prospectively followed for a median of 3.3 years. Clinical, echocardiographic, ECG, and biochemical variables were used in a competing risk regression analysis to construct a risk score for readmissions due to worsening of HF. Thereafter, the score was externally validated using a different cohort of 992 patients with chronic HF (MUSIC registry). Predictors of 1-month readmission were the presence of elevated natriuretic peptides, left ventricular (LV) HF signs, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/m(2) . Predictors of 1-year readmission were elevated natriuretic peptides, anaemia, left atrial size >26 mm/m(2) , heart rate >70 b.p.m., LV HF signs, and eGFR <60 mL/min/m(2) . The C-statistics for the models were 0.72 and 0.66, respectively. The cumulative incidence function distinguished low-risk (<1% event rate) and high-risk groups (>5% event rate) for 1-month HF readmission. Likewise, low-risk (7.8%), intermediate-risk (15.6%) and high-risk groups (26.1%) were identified for 1-year HF readmission risk. The C-statistics remained consistent after the external validation (<5% loss of discrimination). The Redin-SCORE predicts early and late readmission for worsening of HF using proven prognostic variables that are routinely collected in outpatient management of chronic HF. © 2015 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.

Identifying Patients at Risk for Prehospital Sudden Cardiac Arrest at the Early Phase of Myocardial Infarction: The e-MUST Study (Evaluation en Médecine d'Urgence des Stratégies Thérapeutiques des infarctus du myocarde).

PubMed

Karam, Nicole; Bataille, Sophie; Marijon, Eloi; Giovannetti, Olivier; Tafflet, Muriel; Savary, Dominique; Benamer, Hakim; Caussin, Christophe; Garot, Philippe; Juliard, Jean-Michel; Pires, Virginie; Boche, Thévy; Dupas, François; Le Bail, Gaelle; Lamhaut, Lionel; Laborne, François; Lefort, Hugues; Mapouata, Mireille; Lapostolle, Frederic; Spaulding, Christian; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Jouven, Xavier; Lambert, Yves

2016-12-20

In-hospital mortality of ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has decreased drastically. In contrast, prehospital mortality from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) remains high and difficult to reduce. Identification of the patients with STEMI at higher risk for prehospital SCA could facilitate rapid triage and intervention in the field. Using a prospective, population-based study evaluating all patients with STEMI managed by emergency medical services in the greater Paris area (11.7 million inhabitants) between 2006 and 2010, we identified characteristics associated with an increased risk of prehospital SCA and used these variables to build an SCA prediction score, which we validated internally and externally. In the overall STEMI population (n=8112; median age, 60 years; 78% male), SCA occurred in 452 patients (5.6%). In multivariate analysis, younger age, absence of obesity, absence of diabetes mellitus, shortness of breath, and a short delay between pain onset and call to emergency medical services were the main predictors of SCA. A score built from these variables predicted SCA, with the risk increasing 2-fold in patients with a score between 10 and 19, 4-fold in those with a score between 20 and 29, and >18-fold in patients with a score ≥30 compared with those with scores <10. The SCA rate was 28.9% in patients with a score ≥30 compared with 1.6% in patients with a score ≤9 (P for trend <0.001). The area under the curve values were 0.7033 in the internal validation sample and 0.6031 in the external validation sample. Sensitivity and specificity varied between 96.9% and 10.5% for scores ≥10 and between 18.0% and 97.6% for scores ≥30, with scores between 20 and 29 achieving the best sensitivity and specificity (65.4% and 62.6%, respectively). At the early phase of STEMI, the risk of prehospital SCA can be determined through a simple score of 5 routinely assessed predictors. This score might help optimize the dispatching and management of patients with STEMI by emergency medical services. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Management of heart failure in the new era: the role of scores.

PubMed

Mantegazza, Valentina; Badagliacca, Roberto; Nodari, Savina; Parati, Gianfranco; Lombardi, Carolina; Di Somma, Salvatore; Carluccio, Erberto; Dini, Frank Lloyd; Correale, Michele; Magrì, Damiano; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe

2016-08-01

Heart failure is a widespread syndrome involving several organs, still characterized by high mortality and morbidity, and whose clinical course is heterogeneous and hardly predictable.In this scenario, the assessment of heart failure prognosis represents a fundamental step in clinical practice. A single parameter is always unable to provide a very precise prognosis. Therefore, risk scores based on multiple parameters have been introduced, but their clinical utility is still modest. In this review, we evaluated several prognostic models for acute, right, chronic, and end-stage heart failure based on multiple parameters. In particular, for chronic heart failure we considered risk scores essentially based on clinical evaluation, comorbidities analysis, baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, sleep disorders, laboratory tests, echocardiographic imaging, and cardiopulmonary exercise test parameters. What is at present established is that a single parameter is not sufficient for an accurate prediction of prognosis in heart failure because of the complex nature of the disease. However, none of the scoring systems available is widely used, being in some cases complex, not user-friendly, or based on expensive or not easily available parameters. We believe that multiparametric scores for risk assessment in heart failure are promising but their widespread use needs to be experienced.

Does the STAF score help detect paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in acute stroke patients?

PubMed

Horstmann, S; Rizos, T; Güntner, J; Hug, A; Jenetzky, E; Krumsdorf, U; Veltkamp, R

2013-01-01

Detecting paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (pAF) soon after acute cerebral ischaemia has a major impact on secondary stroke prevention. Recently, the STAF score, a composite of clinical and instrumental findings, was introduced to identify stroke patients at risk of pAF. We aimed to validate this score in an independent study population. Consecutive patients admitted to our stroke unit with acute ischaemic stroke were prospectively enrolled. The diagnostic work-up included neuroimaging, neuroultrasound, baseline 12-channel electrocardiogram (ECG), 24-h Holter ECG, continuous ECG monitoring, and echocardiography. Presence of AF was documented according to the medical history of each patient and after review of 12-lead ECG, 24-h Holter ECG, or continuous ECG monitoring performed during the stay on the ward. Additionally, a telephone follow-up visit was conducted for each patient after 3 months to inquire about newly diagnosed AF. Items for each patient-age, baseline NIHSS, left atrial dilatation, and stroke etiology according to the TOAST criteria - were assessed to calculate the STAF score. Overall, 584 patients were enrolled in our analysis. AF was documented in 183 (31.3%) patients. In multivariable analysis, age, NIHSS, left atrial dilatation, and absence of vascular etiology were independent predictors for AF. The logistic AF-prediction model of the STAF score revealed fair classification accuracy in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with an area under the curve of 0.84. STAF scores of ≥5 had a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 74% for predicting AF. The value of the STAF score for predicting the risk of pAF in stroke patients is limited. © 2012 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2012 EFNS.

The Preoperative Controlling Nutritional Status Score Predicts Survival After Curative Surgery in Patients with Pathological Stage I Non-small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Shoji, Fumihiro; Haratake, Naoki; Akamine, Takaki; Takamori, Shinkichi; Katsura, Masakazu; Takada, Kazuki; Toyokawa, Gouji; Okamoto, Tatsuro; Maehara, Yoshihiko

2017-02-01

The prognostic Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is used to evaluate immuno-nutritional conditions and is a predictive factor of postoperative survival in patients with digestive tract cancer. We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological features of patients with pathological stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) to identify predictors or prognostic factors of postoperative survival and to investigate the role of preoperative CONUT score in predicting survival. We selected 138 consecutive patients with pathological stage I NSCLC treated from August 2005 to August 2010. We measured their preoperative CONUT score in uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses of postoperative survival. A high CONUT score was positively associated with preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level (p=0.0100) and postoperative recurrence (p=0.0767). In multivariate analysis, the preoperative CONUT score [relative risk (RR)=6.058; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.068-113.941; p=0.0407), increasing age (RR=7.858; 95% CI=2.034-36.185; p=0.0029), and pleural invasion (RR=36.615; 95% CI=5.900-362.620; p<0.0001) were independent prognostic factors. In Kaplan-Meier analysis of recurrence-free survival (RFS), cancer-specific survival (CS), and overall survival (OS), the group with high CONUT score had a significantly shorter RFS, CS, and OS than did the low-CONUT score group by log-rank test (p=0.0458, p=0.0104 and p=0.0096, respectively). The preoperative CONUT score is both a predictive and prognostic factor in patients with pathological stage I NSCLC. This immuno-nutritional score can indicate patients at high risk of postoperative recurrence and death. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

The association between a body shape index and cardiovascular risk in overweight and obese children and adolescents.

PubMed

Mameli, Chiara; Krakauer, Nir Y; Krakauer, Jesse C; Bosetti, Alessandra; Ferrari, Chiara Matilde; Moiana, Norma; Schneider, Laura; Borsani, Barbara; Genoni, Teresa; Zuccotti, Gianvincenzo

2018-01-01

A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and normalized hip circumference (Hip Index, HI) have been recently shown to be strong risk factors for mortality and for cardiovascular disease in adults. We conducted an observational cross-sectional study to evaluate the relationship between ABSI, HI and cardiometabolic risk factors and obesity-related comorbidities in overweight and obese children and adolescents aged 2-18 years. We performed multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses with BMI, ABSI, and HI age and sex normalized z scores as predictors to examine the association with cardiometabolic risk markers (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose and insulin, total cholesterol and its components, transaminases, fat mass % detected by bioelectrical impedance analysis) and obesity-related conditions (including hepatic steatosis and metabolic syndrome). We recruited 217 patients (114 males), mean age 11.3 years. Multivariate linear regression showed a significant association of ABSI z score with 10 out of 15 risk markers expressed as continuous variables, while BMI z score showed a significant correlation with 9 and HI only with 1. In multivariate logistic regression to predict occurrence of obesity-related conditions and above-threshold values of risk factors, BMI z score was significantly correlated to 7 out of 12, ABSI to 5, and HI to 1. Overall, ABSI is an independent anthropometric index that was significantly associated with cardiometabolic risk markers in a pediatric population affected by overweight and obesity.

ADVANCIS Score Predicts Acute Kidney Injury After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PubMed

Fan, Pei-Chun; Chen, Tien-Hsing; Lee, Cheng-Chia; Tsai, Tsung-Yu; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Chih-Hsiang

2018-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI), a common and crucial complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) after receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), is associated with increased mortality and adverse outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident AKI after PCI for ACS. We included 82,186 patients admitted for ACS and receiving PCI between 1997 and 2011 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database and randomly divided them into a training cohort (n = 57,630) and validation cohort (n = 24,656) for risk model development and validation, respectively. Risk factor analysis revealed that age, diabetes mellitus, ventilator use, prior AKI, number of intervened vessels, chronic kidney disease (CKD), intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) use, cardiogenic shock, female sex, prior stroke, peripheral arterial disease, hypertension, and heart failure were significant risk factors for incident AKI after PCI for ACS. The reduced model, ADVANCIS, comprised 8 clinical parameters (age, diabetes mellitus, ventilator use, prior AKI, number of intervened vessels, CKD, IABP use, cardiogenic shock), with a score scale ranging from 0 to 22, and performed comparably with the full model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 87.4% vs 87.9%). An ADVANCIS score of ≥6 was associated with higher in-hospital mortality risk. In conclusion, the ADVANCIS score is a novel, simple, robust tool for predicting the risk of incident AKI after PCI for ACS, and it can aid in risk stratification to monitor patient care.

Validation and comparison of imaging-based scores for prediction of early stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from cohort studies.

PubMed

Kelly, Peter J; Albers, Gregory W; Chatzikonstantinou, Anastasios; De Marchis, Gian Marco; Ferrari, Julia; George, Paul; Katan, Mira; Knoflach, Michael; Kim, Jong S; Li, Linxin; Lee, Eun-Jae; Olivot, Jean-Marc; Purroy, Francisco; Raposo, Nicolas; Rothwell, Peter M; Sharma, Vijay K; Song, Bo; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Walsh, Cathal; Xu, Yuming; Merwick, Aine

2016-11-01

Identification of patients at highest risk of early stroke after transient ischaemic attack has been improved with imaging based scores. We aimed to compare the validity and prognostic utility of imaging-based stroke risk scores in patients after transient ischaemic attack. We did a pooled analysis of published and unpublished individual-patient data from 16 cohort studies of transient ischaemic attack done in Asia, Europe, and the USA, with early brain and vascular imaging and follow up. All patients were assessed by stroke specialists in hospital settings as inpatients, in emergency departments, or in transient ischaemic attack clinics. Inclusion criteria were stroke-specialist confirmed transient ischaemic attack, age of 18 years or older, and MRI done within 7 days of index transient ischaemic attack and before stroke recurrence. Multivariable logistic regression was done to analyse the predictive utility of abnormal diffusion-weighted MRI, carotid stenosis, and transient ischaemic attack within 1 week of index transient ischaemic attack (dual transient ischaemic attack) after adjusting for ABCD2 score. We compared the prognostic utility of the ABCD2, ABCD2-I, and ABCD3-I scores using discrimination, calibration, and risk reclassification. In 2176 patients from 16 cohort studies done between 2005 and 2015, after adjusting for ABCD2 score, positive diffusion-weighted imaging (odds ratio [OR] 3·8, 95% CI 2·1-7·0), dual transient ischaemic attack (OR 3·3, 95% CI 1·8-5·8), and ipsilateral carotid stenosis (OR 4·7, 95% CI 2·6-8·6) were associated with 7 day stroke after index transient ischaemic attack (p<0·001 for all). 7 day stroke risk increased with increasing ABCD2-I and ABCD3-I scores (both p<0·001). Discrimination to identify early stroke risk was improved for ABCD2-I versus ABCD2 (2 day c statistic 0·74 vs 0·64; p=0·006). However, discrimination was further improved by ABCD3-I compared with ABCD2 (2 day c statistic 0·84 vs 0·64; p<0·001) and ABCD2-I (c statistic 0·84 vs 0·74; p<0·001). Early stroke risk reclassification was improved by ABCD3-I compared with ABCD2-I score (clinical net reclassification improvement 33% at 2 days). Although ABCD2-I and ABCD3-I showed validity, the ABCD3-I score reliably identified highest-risk patients at highest risk of a stroke after transient ischaemic attack with improved risk prediction compared with ABCD2-I. Transient ischaemic attack management guided by ABCD3-I with immediate stroke-specialist assessment, urgent MRI, and vascular imaging should now be considered, with monitoring of safety and cost-effectiveness. Health Research Board of Ireland, Irish Heart Foundation, Irish Health Service Executive, Irish National Lottery, National Medical Research Council of Singapore, Swiss National Science Foundation, Bangerter-Rhyner Foundation, Swiss National Science Foundation, Swisslife Jubiläumsstiftung for Medical Research, Swiss Neurological Society, Fondazione Dr Ettore Balli (Switzerland), Clinical Trial Unit of University of Bern, South Korea's Ministry for Health, Welfare, and Family Affairs, UK Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Dunhill Medical Trust, National Institute of Health Research (NIHR), Medical Research Council, and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ADOPT-LC score: a novel predictive index of in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following surgical procedures, based on a national survey.

PubMed

Sato, Masaya; Tateishi, Ryosuke; Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Matsui, Hiroki; Yoshida, Haruhiko; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

We aimed to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following major surgical procedures using a large sample of patients derived from a Japanese nationwide administrative database. We enrolled 2197 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective (n = 1973) or emergency (n = 224) surgery. We analyzed the risk factors for postoperative mortality and established a scoring system for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients using a split-sample method. In-hospital mortality rates following elective or emergency surgery were 4.7% and 20.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patient age, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and duration of anesthesia in elective surgery were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In emergency surgery, CP class and duration of anesthesia were significant factors. Based on multivariate analysis in the training set (n = 987), the Adequate Operative Treatment for Liver Cirrhosis (ADOPT-LC) score that used patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia to predict in-hospital mortality following elective surgery was developed. This scoring system was validated in the testing set (n = 986) and produced an area under the curve of 0.881. We also developed iOS/Android apps to calculate ADOPT-LC scores to allow easy access to the current evidence in daily clinical practice. Patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia were identified as important risk factors for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients. The ADOPT-LC score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality following elective surgery and may assist decisions regarding surgical procedures in cirrhotic patients based on a quantitative risk assessment. © 2016 The Authors Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.

Analysis of Surgical Mortality for Congenital Heart Defects Using RACHS-1 Risk Score in a Brazilian Single Center

PubMed Central

Cavalcante, Candice Torres de Melo Bezerra; de Souza, Nayana Maria Gomes; Pinto Júnior, Valdester Cavalcante; Branco, Klébia Magalhães Pereira Castello; Pompeu, Ronald Guedes; Teles, Andreia Consuelo de Oliveira; Cavalcante, Rodrigo Cardoso; de Andrade, Giselle Viana

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery 1 (RACHS-1) score is a simple model that can be easily applied and has been widely used for mortality comparison among pediatric cardiovascular services. It is based on the categorization of several surgical palliative or corrective procedures, which have similar mortality in the treatment of congenital heart disease. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the in-hospital mortality in pediatric patients (<18 years) submitted to cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease based on RACHS-1 score, during a 12-year period. METHODS: A retrospective date analysis was performed from January 2003 to December 2014. The survey was divided in two periods of six years long each, to check for any improvement in the results. We evaluated the numbers of procedures performed, complexity of surgery and hospital mortality. RESULTS: Three thousand and two hundred and one surgeries were performed. Of these, 3071 were able to be classified according to the score RACHS-1. Among the patients, 51.7% were male and 47.5% were younger than one year of age. The most common RACHS-1 category was 3 (35.5%). The mortality was 1.8%, 5.5%, 14.9%, 32.5% and 68.6% for category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, respectively. There was a significant increase in the number of surgeries (48%) and a significant reduction in the mortality in the last period analysed (13.3% in period I and 10.4% in period II; P=0.014). CONCLUSION: RACHS-1 score was a useful score for mortality risk in our service, although we are aware that other factors have an impact on the total mortality. PMID:27737404

Increased risk for abnormal depression scores in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokras, Anuja; Clifton, Shari; Futterweit, Walter; Wild, Robert

2011-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and depression both have a high prevalence in reproductive-aged women. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of abnormal depression scores in women who meet currently recognized definitions of PCOS compared with women in a well-defined control group. The search was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE Classic plus EMBASE, PsycINFO, Current Contents-Clinical Medicine and Current Contents-Life Sciences and Web of Science. Cochrane software Review Manager 5.0.24 was used to construct forest plots comparing risk of abnormal depression scores in those in the PCOS and control groups. Studies with well-defined criteria of women with PCOS and control groups of women without PCOS, with demographic information including age and body mass index (BMI), were included. Of 752 screened articles, 17 met the selection criteria for systematic review and 10 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Data were abstracted independently by three reviewers. All studies were cross-sectional and most used the Rotterdam criteria for the diagnosis of PCOS (n=10). The odds ratio (OR) for abnormal depression scores was 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.96-5.5, P<.01) in women with PCOS (n=522) compared with those in the control groups (n=475). A subanalysis showed that the odds for abnormal depression scores was independent of BMI (OR 4.09, 95% CI 2.62-6.41). Several validated tools were used to screen for depression; the common tool used was the Beck Depression Inventory. The results of our study suggest the need to screen all women with PCOS for depression using validated screening tools. Women with PCOS are at an increased risk for abnormal depression scores independent of BMI.

Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair.

PubMed

Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott

2018-04-01

Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p < 0.01). The VHRS surgical site infection scores correlated negatively with contribution margin (-280; p < 0.01). Multivariable predictors of total hospital costs for the index hospitalization included wound class, hernia defect size, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists class 3 or 4, use of biologic mesh, and 2+ mesh pieces; explaining 73% of the variance in costs (p < 0.001). Weight optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost variation for VHR. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subclinical coronary artery disease in Swiss HIV-positive and HIV-negative persons.

PubMed

Tarr, Philip E; Ledergerber, Bruno; Calmy, Alexandra; Doco-Lecompte, Thanh; Marzel, Alex; Weber, Rainer; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Nkoulou, René; Buechel, Ronny R; Kovari, Helen

2018-03-24

HIV-positive persons have increased cardiovascular event rates but data on the prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis compared with HIV-negative persons are not uniform. We assessed subclinical atherosclerosis utilizing coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in 428 HIV-positive participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and 276 HIV-negative controls concurrently referred for clinically indicated CCTA. We assessed the association of HIV infection, cardiovascular risk profile, and HIV-related factors with subclinical atherosclerosis in univariable and multivariable analyses. HIV-positive participants (median duration of HIV infection, 15 years) were younger than HIV-negative participants (median age 52 vs. 56 years; P < 0.01) but had similar median 10-year Framingham risk scores (9.0% vs. 9.7%; P = 0.40). The prevalence of CAC score >0 (53% vs. 56.2%; P = 0.42) and median CAC scores (47 vs. 47; P = 0.80) were similar, as was the prevalence of any, non-calcified/mixed, and high-risk plaque. In multivariable adjusted analysis, HIV-positive participants had a lower prevalence of calcified plaque than HIV-negative participants [36.9% vs. 48.6%, P < 0.01; adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40-0.82; P < 0.01], lower coronary segment severity score (aOR 0.72; 95% CI 0.53-0.99; P = 0.04), and lower segment involvement score (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52-0.97; P = 0.03). Advanced immunosuppression was associated with non-calcified/mixed plaque (aOR 1.97; 95% CI 1.09-3.56; P = 0.02). HIV-positive persons in Switzerland had a similar degree of non-calcified/mixed plaque and high-risk plaque, and may have less calcified coronary plaque, and lower coronary atherosclerosis involvement and severity scores than HIV-negative persons with similar Framingham risk scores.

Validation of an abbreviated version of the Denver HIV risk score for prediction of HIV infection in an urban ED.

PubMed

Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; Haukoos, Jason S; Rothman, Richard E

2014-07-01

We sought to evaluate the performance of an abbreviated version of the Denver HIV Risk Score in 2 urban emergency departments (ED) with known high undiagnosed HIV prevalence. We performed a secondary analysis of data collected prospectively between November 2005 and December 2009 as part of an ED-based nontargeted rapid HIV testing program from 2 sites. Demographics; HIV testing history; injection drug use; and select high-risk sexual behaviors, including men who have sex with men, were collected by standardized interview. Information regarding receptive anal intercourse and vaginal intercourse was either not collected or collected inconsistently and was thus omitted from the model to create its abbreviated version. The study cohort included 15184 patients with 114 (0.75%) newly diagnosed with HIV infection. HIV prevalence was 0.41% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21%-0.71%) for those with a score less than 20, 0.29% (95% CI, 0.14%-0.52%) for those with a score of 20 to 29, 0.65% (95% CI, 0.48%-0.87%) for those with a score of 30 to 39, 2.38% (95% CI, 1.68%-3.28%) for those with a score of 40 to 49, and 4.57% (95% CI, 2.09%-8.67%) for those with a score of 50 or higher. External validation resulted in good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.71-0.79). The calibration regression slope was 0.92 and its R(2) was 0.78. An abbreviated version of the Denver HIV Risk Score had comparable performance to that reported previously, offering a promising alternative strategy for HIV screening in the ED where limited sexual risk behavior information may be obtainable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Complications of stent placement in patients with esophageal cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Doosti-Irani, Amin; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Rahimi-Foroushani, Abbas; Haddad, Peiman

2017-01-01

Background Palliative treatments and stents are necessary for relieving dysphagia in patients with esophageal cancer. The aim of this study was to simultaneously compare available treatments in terms of complications. Methods Web of Science, Medline, Scopus, Cochrane Library and Embase were searched. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the Chi2 test and was quantified by I2. The results of this study were summarized in terms of Risk Ratio (RR). The random effects model was used to report the results. The rank probability for each treatment was calculated using the p-score. Results Out of 17855 references, 24 RCTs reported complications including treatment related death (TRD), bleeding, stent migration, aspiration, severe pain and fistula formation. In the ranking of treatments, thermal ablative therapy (p-score = 0.82), covered Evolution® stent (p-score = 0.70), brachytherapy (p-score = 0.72) and antireflux stent (p-score = 0.74) were better treatments in the network of TRD. Thermal ablative therapy (p-score = 0.86), the conventional stent (p-score = 0.62), covered Evolution® stent (p-score = 0.96) and brachytherapy (p-score = 0.82) were better treatments in the network of bleeding complications. Covered Evolution® (p-score = 0.78), uncovered (p-score = 0.88) and irradiation stents (p-score = 0.65) were better treatments in network of stent migration complications. In the network of severe pain, Conventional self-expandable nitinol alloy covered stent (p-score = 0.73), polyflex (p-score = 0.79), latex prosthesis (p-score = 0.96) and brachytherapy (p-score = 0.65) were better treatments. Conclusion According to our results, thermal ablative therapy, covered Evolution® stents, brachytherapy, and antireflux stents are associated with a lower risk of TRD. Moreover, thermal ablative therapy, conventional, covered Evolution® and brachytherapy had lower risks of bleeding. Overall, fewer complications were associated with covered Evolution® stent and brachytherapy. PMID:28968416

Community cardiovascular disease risk from cross-sectional general practice clinical data: a spatial analysis.

PubMed

Bagheri, Nasser; Gilmour, Bridget; McRae, Ian; Konings, Paul; Dawda, Paresh; Del Fante, Peter; van Weel, Chris

2015-02-26

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be a leading cause of illness and death among adults worldwide. The objective of this study was to calculate a CVD risk score from general practice (GP) clinical records and assess spatial variations of CVD risk in communities. We used GP clinical data for 4,740 men and women aged 30 to 74 years with no history of CVD. A 10-year absolute CVD risk score was calculated based on the Framingham risk equation. The individual risk scores were aggregated within each Statistical Area Level One (SA1) to predict the level of CVD risk in that area. Finally, the pattern of CVD risk was visualized to highlight communities with high and low risk of CVD. The overall 10-year risk of CVD in our sample population was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.3%-14.9%). Of the 4,740 patients in our study, 26.7% were at high risk, 29.8% were at moderate risk, and 43.5% were at low risk for CVD over 10 years. The proportion of patients at high risk for CVD was significantly higher in the communities of low socioeconomic status. This study illustrates methods to further explore prevalence, location, and correlates of CVD to identify communities of high levels of unmet need for cardiovascular care and to enable geographic targeting of effective interventions for enhancing early and timely detection and management of CVD in those communities.

Taxometric Analyses of Specific Language Impairment in 6-Year-Old Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dollaghan, Christine A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether language scores at age 6 years suggest that specific language impairments (SLIs) distribute in a categorical or in a dimensional fashion. Method: A taxometric analysis of language scores from 601 six-year-old children who were free of neonatal risk factors was performed. From among 4 candidate indicators of SLI, 2…

Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

PubMed

Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Hoshino, Junichi; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Takaichi, Kenmei; Kinowaki, Keiichi; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Mise, Koki; Toyama, Tadashi; Hara, Akinori; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Shimizu, Miho; Furuichi, Kengo; Wada, Takashi

2018-01-01

There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD. We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%). We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were not as good as reported, and combining the D-score with the KFRE did not significantly improve prediction of the risk of ESRD in advanced diabetic nephropathy. To improve prediction of renal prognosis for advanced diabetic nephropathy may require different approaches with combining clinical and pathological parameters that were not measured in the KFRE and the RPS DN Classification.

Peritumoral Artery Scoring System: a Novel Scoring System to Predict Renal Function Outcome after Laparoscopic Partial Nephrectomy.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruiyun; Wu, Guangyu; Huang, Jiwei; Shi, Oumin; Kong, Wen; Chen, Yonghui; Xu, Jianrong; Xue, Wei; Zhang, Jin; Huang, Yiran

2017-06-06

The present study aimed to assess the impact of peritumoral artery characteristics on renal function outcome prediction using a novel Peritumoral Artery Scoring System based on computed tomography arteriography. Peritumoral artery characteristics and renal function were evaluated in 220 patients who underwent laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and then validate in 51 patients with split and total glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In particular, peritumoral artery classification and diameter were measured to assign arteries into low, moderate, and high Peritumoral Artery Scoring System risk categories. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were then used to determine risk factors for major renal functional decline. The Peritumoral Artery Scoring System and four other nephrometry systems were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The Peritumoral Artery Scoring System was significantly superior to the other systems for predicting postoperative renal function decline (p < 0.001). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, our category system was a superior independent predictor of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.865, p < 0.001) and total GFR decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.796, p < 0.001), and split GFR decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.841, p < 0.001). Peritumoral artery characteristics were independent predictors of renal function outcome after laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.

A case-control study of surgical site infection following operative fixation of fractures of the ankle in a large U.K. trauma unit.

PubMed

Korim, M T; Payne, R; Bhatia, M

2014-05-01

Most of the literature on surgical site infections following the surgical treatment of fractures of the ankle is based on small series of patients, focusing on diabetics or the elderly. None have described post-operative functional scores in those patients who develop an infection. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study to identify patient- and surgery-related risk factors for surgical site infection following open reduction and internal fixation of a fracture of the ankle. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant risk factors for infection and to calculate odds ratios (OR). Function was assessed using the Olerud and Molander Ankle Score. The incidence of infection was 4% (29/717) and 1.1% (8/717) were deep infections. The median ankle score was significantly lower in the infection group compared with the control group (60 vs 90, Mann-Whitney test p < 0.0001). Multivariate regression analysis showed that diabetes (OR = 15, p = 0.031), nursing home residence (OR = 12, p = 0.018) and Weber C fractures (OR = 4, p = 0.048) were significant risk factors for infection. A low incidence of infection following open reduction and internal fixation of fractures of the ankle was observed. Both superficial and deep infections result in lower functional scores.

Validation of the 2012 Fukuoka Consensus Guideline for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas From a Single Institution Experience.

PubMed

Yu, Songfeng; Takasu, Naoki; Watanabe, Toshihiro; Fukumoto, Tsuyoshi; Okazaki, Shinji; Tezuka, Koji; Sugawara, Shuichiro; Hirai, Ichiro; Kimura, Wataru

2017-08-01

The 2012 Fukuoka consensus guideline has stratified the risks of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas into "high-risk stigmata" (HRS) and "worrisome feature" (WF). This study aimed to evaluate its clinical validity based on a single institution experience. Eighty-nine patients who underwent surgical resection with pathological diagnosis of IPMN were retrospectively studied. High-risk stigmata was significantly correlated with the prevalence of malignant IPMN as compared with WF. The positive predictive values of HRS and WF were 66.7% and 35.7% for branch duct IPMN and 80% and 38.1% for main duct IPMN, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that all the factors in HRS and WF had statistical significance. Whereas multivariate analysis revealed only enhanced solid component (odds ratio [OR], 50.01; P = 0.008), presence of mural nodule (OR, 73.83; P < 0.001) and lymphadenopathy (OR, 20.85; P = 0.03) were independent predictors. Scoring HRS and WF by different numbers of positive factors resulted in improved predictive value. The area under the curve of HRS score was significantly lower than that of WF or HRS + WF score (0.680 vs 0.900 or 0.902, respectively; P < 0.001). As supplementary to the 2012 Fukuoka guideline, we suggest that calculating scores of WF and HRS may have superior diagnostic accuracy in predicting malignant IPMN.

Anthropometrics to Identify Overweight Children at Most Risk for the Development of Cardiometabolic Disease.

PubMed

Labyak, Corinne A; Janicke, David M; Lim, Crystal S; Colee, James; Mathews, Anne E

2013-12-01

Sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) is a novel anthropometric that correlates more strongly with visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and cardiometabolic disease risk in adults compared with body mass index (BMI). However, little research has evaluated this measurement in children. To evaluate SAD as a measure of cardiometabolic risk compared with other anthropometrics in overweight/obese children. This study was a cross-sectional subset analysis of 8- to 12-year-old overweight/ obese children. SAD was compared to BMI, waist circumference (WC), BMI z -score, and percent body fat to determine which measurement was most closely associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. A total cardiometabolic risk score comprising all biochemical markers and blood pressure was also compared to these same anthropometrics. Overweight/obese children (n = 145, mean age 10 ± 1.4 years, mean BMI percentile 97.9 ± 0.02) were included in the analysis. SAD correlated with the greatest number of biochemical markers/blood pressure values including triglycerides ( r = .18, P = .03), HgbA1c ( r = .21, P = .01), and systolic blood pressure ( r = .38, P < .0001). SAD was more strongly correlated to total risk score ( r = .25, P = .002) than WC ( r = .22, P = .006), BMI ( r = .17, P = .04), BMI- z ( r = .18, P = .03), and percent body fat ( r = .18, P = .03). This is the first study to evaluate SAD in overweight/obese American children as a marker of cardiometabolic disease risk. The results suggest a slightly stronger correlation between SAD and cardiometabolic risk factors in overweight/obese children; however, all correlations were weak. As this was a pilot study, additional research is needed prior to recommending the use of this measurement in clinical practice.

Clinical and Geographic Characterization of 30-Day Readmissions in Pediatric Sickle Cell Crisis Patients.

PubMed

McMillan, Jefferson E; Meier, Emily R; Winer, Jeffrey C; Coco, Megan; Daymont, Mary; Long, Sierra; Jacobs, Brian R

2015-08-01

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a blood disorder affecting many US children that is often associated with hospital readmission. Although previous studies have reported on the clinical factors that influence readmission risk, potential geographic factors have not been fully investigated. The goal of this study was to investigate the importance of geographic risk factors and to confirm previously derived clinical risk factors that influence readmissions for SCD pain crises. Retrospective analyses were performed on pediatric inpatients with sickle cell crises at a single center. Readmission rates and risk factors were assessed. Geospatial analysis was conducted on point variables that represented health service access, and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed. The study identified 373 patients experiencing sickle cell crises, with 125 (33.5%) having at least one 30-day readmission. Age (mean difference: 2.2 years; P<0.001), length of stay (median difference: 1 day; P<.001), admission pain score>7 of 10 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.21; P<0.01), discharge pain score>4 of 10 (OR: 2.098; P<.01), living within 5 miles of the center's main hospital (OR: 0.573; P=.04), and >3 hospital utilizations in the previous 12 months (OR: 5.103; P<.001) were identified as potential indicators of 30-day readmission risk. Logistic regression models for 30-day readmissions yielded similar results. Increased age, high admission and discharge pain scores, decreased length of stay, and increased hospital utilizations were found to be associated with an increased risk of readmission for sickle cell crisis. Patient's residence was also found to be a significant risk indicator, supporting the utility of geospatial analysis in assessing readmission risk. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Predictors of Death in Trauma Patients who are Alive on Arrival at Hospital.

PubMed

Lichtveld, Rob A; Panhuizen, Ivo F; Smit, Ronald B J; Holtslag, Hermann R; van der Werken, Christian

2007-02-01

To determine which factors predict death occurring in trauma patients who are alive on arrival at hospital Design Prospective cohort study Method Data were collected from 507 trauma patients with multiple injuries, with a Hospital Trauma Index-Injury Severity Score of 16 or more, who were initially delivered by the Emergency Medical Services to the Emergency Department of the University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU) during the period 1999-2000. Univariate analysis showed that every year of age increase resulted in a 2% greater risk of death. If the patient had been intubated at the scene of the accident, this risk was increased 4.3-fold. Every point of increase in the Triage Revised Trauma Score (T-RTS) reduced the risk of death by 30%. A similar (but inverse) tendency was found for the HTI-ISS score, with every point of increase resulting in a 5% greater risk of death. There was a clear relationship between the base excess (BE) and hemoglobin (Hb) levels and the risk of death, the latter being increased by 8% for each mmol/l drop in BE, and reduced by 22% for each mmol/l increase in Hb. The risk of death occurring was 2.6 times higher in cases with isolated neurotrauma. These associations hardly changed in the multivariate analysis; only the relation with having been intubated at the scene disappeared. The risk of severely injured accident patients dying after arriving in hospital is mainly determined by the T-RTS, age, presence of isolated neurological damage, BE and Hb level. Skull/brain damage and hemorrhage appear to be the most important causes of death in the first 24 h after the accident. The time interval between the accident and arrival at the hospital does not appear to affect the risk of death.

Predictors of long-term recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at young age: the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Pezzini, Alessandro; Grassi, Mario; Lodigiani, Corrado; Patella, Rosalba; Gandolfo, Carlo; Zini, Andrea; Delodovici, Maria Luisa; Paciaroni, Maurizio; Del Sette, Massimo; Toriello, Antonella; Musolino, Rossella; Calabrò, Rocco Salvatore; Bovi, Paolo; Adami, Alessandro; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Sessa, Maria; Cavallini, Anna; Marcheselli, Simona; Bonifati, Domenico Marco; Checcarelli, Nicoletta; Tancredi, Lucia; Chiti, Alberto; Del Zotto, Elisabetta; Spalloni, Alessandra; Giossi, Alessia; Volonghi, Irene; Costa, Paolo; Giacalone, Giacomo; Ferrazzi, Paola; Poli, Loris; Morotti, Andrea; Rasura, Maurizia; Simone, Anna Maria; Gamba, Massimo; Cerrato, Paolo; Micieli, Giuseppe; Melis, Maurizio; Massucco, Davide; De Giuli, Valeria; Iacoviello, Licia; Padovani, Alessandro

2014-04-22

Data on long-term risk and predictors of recurrent thrombotic events after ischemic stroke at a young age are limited. We followed 1867 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke who were 18 to 45 years of age (mean age, 36.8±7.1 years; women, 49.0%), as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults (IPSYS). Median follow-up was 40 months (25th to 75th percentile, 53). The primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or other arterial events. One hundred sixty-three patients had recurrent thrombotic events (average rate, 2.26 per 100 person-years at risk). At 10 years, cumulative risk was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.2%-17.9%) for primary end point, 14.0% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%-17.1%) for brain ischemia, and 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.4%-1.3%) for myocardial infarction or other arterial events. Familial history of stroke, migraine with aura, circulating antiphospholipid antibodies, discontinuation of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medications, and any increase of 1 traditional vascular risk factor were independent predictors of the composite end point in multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. A point-scoring system for each variable was generated by their β-coefficients, and a predictive score (IPSYS score) was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 0- to 5-year score was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.71; mean, 10-fold internally cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65). Among patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 45 years, the long-term risk of recurrent thrombotic events is associated with modifiable, age-specific risk factors. The IPSYS score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Bacterial Infections Change Natural History of Cirrhosis Irrespective of Liver Disease Severity.

PubMed

Dionigi, Elena; Garcovich, Matteo; Borzio, Mauro; Leandro, Gioacchino; Majumdar, Avik; Tsami, Aikaterini; Arvaniti, Vasiliki; Roccarina, Davide; Pinzani, Massimo; Burroughs, Andrew K; O'Beirne, James; Tsochatzis, Emmanuel A

2017-04-01

We assessed the prognostic significance of infections in relation to current prognostic scores and explored if infection could be considered per se a distinct clinical stage in the natural history of cirrhosis. We included consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to a tertiary referral liver unit for at least 48 h over a 2-year period. Diagnosis of infection was based on positive cultures or strict established criteria. We used competing risk analysis and propensity score matching for data analysis. 501 patients (63% male, 48% alcoholic liver disease, median Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)=17) underwent 781 admissions over the study period. Portal hypertensive bleeding and complicated ascites were the commonest reasons of admission. The incidence of proven bacterial infection was 25.6% (60% community acquired and 40% nosocomial). Survival rates at 3, 6, 12, and 30 months were 83%, 77%, 71%, and 62% in patients without diagnosis of infection, vs. 50%, 46%, 41%, and 34% in patients with diagnosis of infection. Overall survival was independently associated with MELD score (hazards ratio (HR) 1.099), intensive care (ITU) stay (HR 1.967) and bacterial infection (HR 2.226). Bacterial infection was an independent predictor of survival even when patients who died within the first 30 days were excluded from the analysis in Cox regression (HR 2.013) and competing risk Cox models in all patients (HR 1.46) and propensity risk score-matched infected and non-infected patients (HR 1.67). Infection most likely represents a distinct prognostic stage of cirrhosis, which affects survival irrespective of disease severity, even after recovery from the infective episode.

Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Soo Beom; Oh, Ein; Park, Jee Soo

2016-01-01

Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN) model for knee OA. Methods The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1) data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models. Results The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001) with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001). Conclusions The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk. PMID:26859664

Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

2017-06-01

The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

Difficulties in deciding whether to ablate patients with putatively "low-intermediate-risk" differentiated thyroid carcinoma: do guidelines mainly apply in the centres that produce them? Results of a retrospective, two-centre quality assurance study.

PubMed

Frangos, Savvas; Iakovou, Ioannis P; Marlowe, Robert J; Eftychiou, Nicolaos; Patsali, Loukia; Vanezi, Anna; Savva, Androulla; Mpalaris, Vassilis; Giannoula, Evanthia I

2015-12-01

We determined the reasons for radioiodine thyroid remnant ablation, and the procedure's necessity based on postsurgical remnant size, in patients with putatively "low-intermediate-risk" differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). We identified key clinicopathological, treatment and remnant characteristics, and factors associated with remnant size in 336 patients with pT1/2, M0 DTC ablated during the period September 2010 to October 2013 at one Cypriot or one Greek referral centre. Clinicopathological/treatment characteristics were compiled from charts. Experienced nuclear medicine physicians rated the numbers/intensities of uptake foci in the thyroid bed on postablation planar scintigrams using scales of 0-4 points and 0-3 points, respectively. The product of these scores was taken as the "remnant score" that ranged from 0 (no remnant) to 12 (multiple remnants, intense uptake). DTC was predominantly papillary. The median [25th-75th percentile] longest primary tumour diameter was 1.0 cm [0.7-1.5 cm]. Despite favourable histotypes and primary tumour classifications, patients often had preablation characteristics suggesting elevated or uncertain risk: 31.0% of patients (104 of 336) had primary tumour multifocality, 22.0% (74) had confirmed cervical lymph node metastases, 37.2% (125) had unknown nodal status, and 38.1% (128) had antithyroglobulin antibody seropositivity. The median [25th-75th percentile] remnant score was 4 [2-6]; 39.9% of patients (134 of 336) had scores ≥6. For the entire cohort, T or N stages (r ≤ 0.174, P ≤ 0.05) correlated positively with the remnant score in a univariate Spearman analysis. The numbers of patients referred by the surgeon, cervical lymph nodes excised and metastatic nodes excised correlated negatively (r ≤ 0.243, P ≤ 0.038) with the remnant score, and the first two factors independently predicted the remnant score (P ≤ 0.037) in a multivariate analysis. Patients with putatively "low-intermediate-risk" DTC frequently had disease characteristics denoting high or uncertain risk, suggesting that "selective" radioiodine ablation in such patients may seldom be applicable outside international centres of excellence. Proxies for surgeon experience and surgical completeness correlated with remnant number/uptake intensity and may aid ablation-related decision-making.

Failure mode and effect analysis in blood transfusion: a proactive tool to reduce risks.

PubMed

Lu, Yao; Teng, Fang; Zhou, Jie; Wen, Aiqing; Bi, Yutian

2013-12-01

The aim of blood transfusion risk management is to improve the quality of blood products and to assure patient safety. We utilize failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), a tool employed for evaluating risks and identifying preventive measures to reduce the risks in blood transfusion. The failure modes and effects occurring throughout the whole process of blood transfusion were studied. Each failure mode was evaluated using three scores: severity of effect (S), likelihood of occurrence (O), and probability of detection (D). Risk priority numbers (RPNs) were calculated by multiplying the S, O, and D scores. The plan-do-check-act cycle was also used for continuous improvement. Analysis has showed that failure modes with the highest RPNs, and therefore the greatest risk, were insufficient preoperative assessment of the blood product requirement (RPN, 245), preparation time before infusion of more than 30 minutes (RPN, 240), blood transfusion reaction occurring during the transfusion process (RPN, 224), blood plasma abuse (RPN, 180), and insufficient and/or incorrect clinical information on request form (RPN, 126). After implementation of preventative measures and reassessment, a reduction in RPN was detected with each risk. The failure mode with the second highest RPN, namely, preparation time before infusion of more than 30 minutes, was shown in detail to prove the efficiency of this tool. FMEA evaluation model is a useful tool in proactively analyzing and reducing the risks associated with the blood transfusion procedure. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

High-Quality Diets Associate With Reduced Risk of Colorectal Cancer: Analyses of Diet Quality Indexes in the Multiethnic Cohort.

PubMed

Park, Song-Yi; Boushey, Carol J; Wilkens, Lynne R; Haiman, Christopher A; Le Marchand, Loïc

2017-08-01

Healthy eating patterns assessed by diet quality indexes (DQIs) have been related to lower risk of colorectal cancer-mostly among whites. We investigated the associations between 4 DQI scores (the Healthy Eating Index 2010 [HEI-2010], the Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 [AHEI-2010], the alternate Mediterranean diet score [aMED], and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension score) and colorectal cancer risk in the Multiethnic Cohort. We analyzed data from 190,949 African American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese American, Latino, and white individuals, 45 to 75 years old, who entered the Multiethnic Cohort study from 1993 through 1996. During an average 16 years of follow-up, 4770 invasive colorectal cancer cases were identified. Scores from all 4 DQIs associated inversely with colorectal cancer risk; higher scores associated with decreasing colorectal cancer risk (all P's for trend ≤ .003). Associations were not significant for AHEI-2010 and aMED scores in women after adjustment for covariates: for the highest vs lowest quintiles, the hazard ratio for the HEI-2010 score in men was 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.80) and in women was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70-0.96); for the AHEI-2010 score the hazard ratio in men was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) and in women was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.78-1.04); for the aMED score the hazard ratio in men was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73-0.97) and in women was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82-1.13); for the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension score the hazard ratio in men was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.66-0.86) and in women was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75-1.00). Associations were limited to the left colon and rectum for all indexes. The inverse associations were less strong in African American individuals than in the other 4 racial/ethnic groups. Based on an analysis of data from the Multiethnic Cohort Study, high-quality diets are associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer in most racial/ethnic subgroups. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

PubMed

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

2014-12-01

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Mediterranean diet adherence and synergy with acute myocardial infarction and its determinants: A multicenter case-control study in Italy

PubMed Central

Saulle, Rosella; Di Murro, Francesca; Siliquini, Roberta; Firenze, Alberto; Maurici, Massimo; Mannocci, Alice; Colamesta, Vittoria; Barillà, Francesco; Ferrante, Fabio; Agati, Luciano

2018-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in Western countries. The possible synergistic effect of poor adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) and other risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) such as hypertension, cholesterol, ever smoker, BMI> 25, diabetes, has not been deeply studied. Design Case-control study. Methods Patients with first AMI and controls from four tertiary referral Italian centers were screened for enrolment. Dietary information was collected through a questionnaire and a MD adherence score was calculated. Physical activity and smoking habits were also registered. The Synergy Index was calculated according to Rothman. Results 127 cases and 173 controls were enrolled. The analysis was conducted using a dichotomous variable for the MD score with values ≥7 representing good adherence. Multivariate analysis showed the following variables associated to AMI: ever smoker (OR = 2.08), diabetes (OR = 1.42), hypertension (OR = 2.08), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 2.47), BMI> 25 (OR = 1.99), while a protective effect emerged both in subjects scoring > 7 on the MD score (OR = 0.55) and in subjects resident of Southern Italy (OR = 0.38). A synergistic effect does exist between poor adherence to the MD and the following risk factors: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, BMI >25, diabetes and being a resident in central and northern Italy. Conclusion Synergy between heart disease risk factors and MD underlines the need to enlarge the list of known modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to include and promote adherence to Mediterranean dietary habits. PMID:29543823

Analysis of the influences on plumage condition in laying hens: How suitable is a whole body plumage score as an outcome?

PubMed

Campe, A; Hoes, C; Koesters, S; Froemke, C; Bougeard, S; Staack, M; Bessei, W; Manton, A; Scholz, B; Schrader, L; Thobe, P; Knierim, U

2018-02-01

An important indicator of the health and behavior of laying hens is their plumage condition. Various scoring systems are used, and various risk factors for feather damage have been described. Often, a summarized score of different body parts is used to describe the overall condition of the plumage of a bird. However, it has not yet been assessed whether such a whole body plumage score is a suitable outcome variable when analyzing the risk factors for plumage deterioration. Data collected within a German project on farms keeping laying hens in aviaries were analyzed to investigate whether and the extent to which information is lost when summarizing the scores of the separate body parts. Two models were fitted using multiblock redundancy analysis, in which the first model included the whole body score as one outcome variable, while the second model included the scores of the individual body parts as multiple outcome variables. Although basically similar influences could be discovered with both models, the investigation of the individual body parts allowed for consideration of the influences on each body part separately and for the identification of additional influences. Furthermore, ambivalent influences (a factor differently associated with 2 different outcomes) could be detected with this approach, and possible dilutive effects were avoided. We conclude that influences might be underestimated or even missed when modeling their explanatory power for an overall score only. Therefore, multivariate methods that allow for the consideration of individual body parts are an interesting option when investigating influences on plumage condition. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Developing from child to adult: Risk factors for poor psychosocial outcome in adolescents and young adults with epilepsy.

PubMed

Geerlings, R P J; Aldenkamp, A P; Gottmer-Welschen, L M C; de With, P H N; Zinger, S; van Staa, A L; de Louw, A J A

2015-10-01

Childhood-onset epilepsy during the years of transition to adulthood may affect normal social, physical, and mental development, frequently leading to psychosocial and health-related problems in the long term. This study aimed to describe the main characteristics of patients in transition and to identify risk factors for poor psychosocial outcome in adolescents and young adults with epilepsy. Patients with epilepsy, 15-25years of age, who visited the Kempenhaeghe Epilepsy Transition Clinic from March 2012 to December 2014 were included (n=138). Predefined risk scores for medical, educational/occupational status, and independence/separation/identity were obtained, along with individual risk profile scores for poor psychosocial outcome. Multivariate linear regression analysis and discriminant analysis were used to identify variables associated with an increased risk of poor long-term psychosocial outcome. Demographic, epilepsy-related, and psychosocial variables associated with a high risk of poor long-term outcome were lower intelligence, higher seizure frequency, ongoing seizures, and an unsupportive and unstable family environment. Using the aforementioned factors in combination, we were able to correctly classify the majority (55.1%) of the patients regarding their risk of poor psychosocial outcome. Our analysis may allow early identification of patients at high risk of prevention, preferably at pretransition age. The combination of a chronic refractory epilepsy and an unstable family environment constitutes a higher risk of transition problems and poor outcome in adulthood. As a consequence, early interventions should be put into place to protect youth at risk of poor transition outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rheumatoid arthritis-specific cardiovascular risk scores are not superior to general risk scores: a validation analysis of patients from seven countries.

PubMed

Crowson, Cynthia S; Gabriel, Sherine E; Semb, Anne Grete; van Riel, Piet L C M; Karpouzas, George; Dessein, Patrick H; Hitchon, Carol; Pascual-Ramos, Virginia; Kitas, George D

2017-07-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators developed for the general population do not accurately predict CVD events in patients with RA. We sought to externally validate risk calculators recommended for use in patients with RA including the EULAR 1.5 multiplier, the Expanded Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Score for RA (ERS-RA) and QRISK2. Seven RA cohorts from UK, Norway, Netherlands, USA, South Africa, Canada and Mexico were combined. Data on baseline CVD risk factors, RA characteristics and CVD outcomes (including myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke and cardiovascular death) were collected using standardized definitions. Performance of QRISK2, EULAR multiplier and ERS-RA was compared with other risk calculators [American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), Framingham Adult Treatment Panel III Framingham risk score-Adult Treatment Panel (FRS-ATP) and Reynolds Risk Score] using c-statistics and net reclassification index. Among 1796 RA patients without prior CVD [mean ( s . d .) age: 54.0 (14.0) years, 74% female], 100 developed CVD events during a mean follow-up of 6.9 years (12430 person-years). Estimated CVD risk by ERS-RA [mean ( s . d .) 8.8% (9.8%)] was comparable to FRS-ATP [mean ( s . d .) 9.1% (8.3%)] and Reynolds [mean ( s . d .) 9.2% (12.2%)], but lower than ACC/AHA [mean ( s . d .) 9.8% (12.1%)]. QRISK2 substantially overestimated risk [mean ( s . d .) 15.5% (13.9%)]. Discrimination was not improved for ERS-RA (c-statistic = 0.69), QRISK2 or EULAR multiplier applied to ACC/AHA compared with ACC/AHA (c-statistic = 0.72 for all) or for FRS-ATP (c-statistic = 0.75). The net reclassification index for ERS-RA was low (-0.8% vs ACC/AHA and 2.3% vs FRS-ATP). The QRISK2, EULAR multiplier and ERS-RA algorithms did not predict CVD risk more accurately in patients with RA than CVD risk calculators developed for the general population. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Phobic anxiety symptom scores and incidence of type 2 diabetes in US men and women

PubMed Central

Farvid, Maryam S; Qi, Lu; Hu, Frank B; Kawachi, Ichiro; Okereke, Olivia I; Kubzansky, Laura; Willett, Walter C

2013-01-01

Context Emotional stress may be a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the relation between phobic anxiety symptom scores and risk of T2D is uncertain. Objective To evaluate prospectively the association between phobic anxiety symptom scores and incident T2D in three cohorts of US men and women. Design, Setting and Patients We followed 30,830 men in the Health Professional’s Follow-Up Study (HPFS) (1988–2008), 69,336 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) (1988–2008), and 80,120 women in the Nurses’ Health Study II (NHS II) (1993–2011). Phobic anxiety symptom scores, as measured by the Crown-Crisp index (CCI), calculated from 8 questions, was administered at baseline and updated in 2004 for NHS, in 2005 for NHS II, and in 2000 for HPFS. Incident T2D was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire. We used Cox proportional hazards analysis to evaluate associations with incident T2D. Results During 3,110,248 person-years of follow-up, we documented 12,876 incident T2D cases. In multivariable Cox regression models with adjustment for major lifestyle and dietary risk factors, the HRs of T2D across categories of increasing levels of CCI (scores= 2-<3, 3-<4, 4-<6, 6), compared with a score of <2, were increased significantly by 6%, 10%, 11% and 13% (Ptrend =0.0005) for NHS; and by 19%, 11%, 22%, and 29% (Ptrend <0.0001) for NHS II. Each score increment in CCI was associated with 3% higher risk of T2D in NHS (HRs, 1.03, 95%CI:1.02-1.04) and 4% higher risk of T2D in NHS II (HRs, 1.04, 95%CI:1.03-1.05). Further adjustment for self-reported depression and antidepressant use did not change the results. In HPFS, the association between CCI and T2D was not significant after adjusting for lifestyle variables. Conclusion Our results suggest that higher phobic anxiety symptom scores are associated with an increased risk of T2D in women. PMID:24184473

Obesogenic family types identified through latent profile analysis.

PubMed

Martinson, Brian C; VazquezBenitez, Gabriela; Patnode, Carrie D; Hearst, Mary O; Sherwood, Nancy E; Parker, Emily D; Sirard, John; Pasch, Keryn E; Lytle, Leslie

2011-10-01

Obesity may cluster in families due to shared physical and social environments. This study aims to identify family typologies of obesity risk based on family environments. Using 2007-2008 data from 706 parent/youth dyads in Minnesota, we applied latent profile analysis and general linear models to evaluate associations between family typologies and body mass index (BMI) of youth and parents. Three typologies described most families with 18.8% "Unenriched/Obesogenic," 16.9% "Risky Consumer," and 64.3% "Healthy Consumer/Salutogenic." After adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic factors, parent BMI and youth BMI Z-scores were higher in unenriched/obesogenic families (BMI difference = 2.7, p < 0.01 and BMI Z-score difference = 0.51, p < 0.01, respectively) relative to the healthy consumer/salutogenic typology. In contrast, parent BMI and youth BMI Z-scores were similar in the risky consumer families relative to those in healthy consumer/salutogenic type. We can identify family types differing in obesity risks with implications for public health interventions.

Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

2016-08-01

To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P < 0.00001) and octreotide (odds ratio 3.30, P < 0.00001). When adjusting for risk, performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

Dietary inflammatory index and risk of reflux oesophagitis, Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Hebert, James R; Anderson, Lesley A; Shrubsole, Martha J; Murray, Liam J; Getty, Lauren B; Coleman, Helen G

2017-05-01

The dietary inflammatory index (DIITM) is a novel composite score based on a range of nutrients and foods known to be associated with inflammation. DII scores have been linked to the risk of a number of cancers, including oesophageal squamous cell cancer and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). Given that OAC stems from acid reflux and that the oesophageal epithelium undergoes a metaplasia-dysplasia transition from the resulting inflammation, it is plausible that a high DII score (indicating a pro-inflammatory diet) may exacerbate risk of OAC and its precursor conditions. The aim of this analytical study was to explore the association between energy-adjusted dietary inflammatory index (E-DIITM) in relation to risk of reflux oesophagitis, Barrett's oesophagus and OAC. Between 2002 and 2005, reflux oesophagitis (n 219), Barrett's oesophagus (n 220) and OAC (n 224) patients, and population-based controls (n 256), were recruited to the Factors influencing the Barrett's Adenocarcinoma Relationship study in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. E-DII scores were derived from a 101-item FFQ. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was applied to determine odds of oesophageal lesions according to E-DII intakes, adjusting for potential confounders. High E-DII scores were associated with borderline increase in odds of reflux oesophagitis (OR 1·87; 95 % CI 0·93, 3·73), and significantly increased odds of Barrett's oesophagus (OR 2·05; 95 % CI 1·22, 3·47), and OAC (OR 2·29; 95 % CI 1·32, 3·96), when comparing the highest with the lowest tertiles of E-DII scores. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet may exacerbate the risk of the inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma pathway in oesophageal carcinogenesis.

Efficacy of Over-the-Scope Clips in Management of High-Risk Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Brandler, Justin; Baruah, Anushka; Zeb, Muhammad; Mehfooz, Ayesha; Pophali, Prachi; Wong Kee Song, Louis; AbuDayyeh, Barham; Gostout, Christopher; Mara, Kristin; Dierkhising, Ross; Buttar, Navtej

2018-05-01

Standard endoscopic therapies do not control bleeding or produce complications in as many as 20% of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. Most bleeding comes from ulcers with characteristics such as high-risk vascular territories and/or large vessels. We evaluated the efficacy of using over-the-scope clips (OTSCs) as primary or rescue therapy for patients with bleeding from lesions that have a high risk for adverse outcomes. We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 67 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding from high-risk lesions who were treated with OTSCs as primary (n = 49) or rescue therapy (n = 18) at a quaternary center, from December 2011 through February 2015. The definition of high-risk lesions was lesions that were situated in the area of a major artery and larger than 2 mm in diameter and/or a deep penetrating, excavated, fibrotic ulcer with high-risk stigmata, in which a perforation could not be ruled out or thermal therapy would cause perforation, or lesions that could not be treated by standard endoscopy. Clinical severity was determined based on the Rockall score and a modified Blatchford score. Our primary outcome was the incidence of rebleeding within 30 days after OTSC placement. We assessed risk factors for rebleeding using univariate hazard models followed by multivariable analysis. Of the 67 patients, 47 (70.1%) remained free of rebleeding at 30 days after OTSC placement. We found no difference in the proportion of patients with rebleeding who received primary or rescue therapy (hazard ratio, 0.639; 95% confidence interval, 0.084-4.860; P = .6653). Only 9 rebleeding events were linked clearly to OTSCs and required intervention, indicating an OTSC success rate of 81.3%. We found no significant associations between rebleeding and clinical scores. However, on multivariable analysis, patients with coronary artery disease had a higher risk of rebleeding after OTSC independent of international normalized ratio and antiplatelet use (hazard ratio, 7.30; P = .0002). In a retrospective analysis of 67 patients with bleeding from high-risk gastrointestinal lesions, we found OTSCs to prevent rebleeding in more than 80% of cases. In the past, these lesions were treated with surgical or radiologic interventions. Patients with coronary artery disease have an increased risk of rebleeding after OTSCs, suggesting the need for escalated therapies. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychometric validation of the Columbia-Suicide Severity rating scale in Spanish-speaking adolescents.

PubMed

Serrani Azcurra, Daniel

2017-12-30

Adolescent suicide is a major public health issue, and early and accurate detection is of great concern. There are many reliable instruments for this purpose, such as the Columbia-Suicide severity rating scale (C-SSRS), but no validation exists for Spanish speaking Latin American adolescents. To assess psychometric properties and cut-off scores of the C-SSRS in Spanish speaking adolescents. Exploratory assessment with principal component analysis (PCA) and Varimax rotation, and confirmatory analysis (CFA) were performed on two groups with 782 and 834 participants respectively (N=1616). Mean age was 24.8 years. A Receiver operator analysis was applied to distinguish between control and suicide-risk subgroups adolescents. Promax rotation yielded two 10-items factors, for suicide ideation and behavior respectively. C-SSRS was positively correlated with other suicide risk scales, such as Beck Depression Inventory-II, Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised, or PHQ-9. Confirmatory factor analysis yielded a two-factor solution as the best goodness of fit model. C-SSRS showed adequate ability to detect suicide risk group with positive predictive value of 68.3%. ROC analyses showed cutoff scores of ≥ 6 and ≥ 4 for suicide ideation and behavior scales respectively. This research offers data supporting psychometric validity and reliability of C-SSRS in nonclinical Spanish-speaking students. Added benefits are flexible scoring and management easiness. This questionnaire yields data on distinct aspects of suicidality, being more parsimonious than separate administration of a bunch of questionnaires.

Psychometric validation of the Columbia-Suicide Severity rating scale in Spanish-speaking adolescents

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: Adolescent suicide is a major public health issue, and early and accurate detection is of great concern. There are many reliable instruments for this purpose, such as the Columbia-Suicide severity rating scale (C-SSRS), but no validation exists for Spanish speaking Latin American adolescents. Objetive: To assess psychometric properties and cut-off scores of the C-SSRS in Spanish speaking adolescents. Methods: Exploratory assessment with principal component analysis (PCA) and Varimax rotation, and confirmatory analysis (CFA) were performed on two groups with 782 and 834 participants respectively (N=1616). Mean age was 24.8 years. A Receiver operator analysis was applied to distinguish between control and suicide-risk subgroups adolescents. Results: Promax rotation yielded two 10-items factors, for suicide ideation and behavior respectively. C-SSRS was positively correlated with other suicide risk scales, such as Beck Depression Inventory-II, Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised, or PHQ-9. Confirmatory factor analysis yielded a two-factor solution as the best goodness of fit model. C-SSRS showed adequate ability to detect suicide risk group with positive predictive value of 68.3%. ROC analyses showed cutoff scores of ≥ 6 and ≥ 4 for suicide ideation and behavior scales respectively Conclusion: This research offers data supporting psychometric validity and reliability of C-SSRS in nonclinical Spanish-speaking students. Added benefits are flexible scoring and management easiness. This questionnaire yields data on distinct aspects of suicidality, being more parsimonious than separate administration of a bunch of questionnaires. PMID:29662259

[The use of Bologna Score to assess normal labor care in maternities].

PubMed

Oliveira, Fabio André Miranda de; Leal, Giseli Campos Gaioski; Wolff, Lillian Daisy Gonçalves; Gonçalves, Luciana Schleder

2015-01-01

To assess care during labor and delivery in habitual risk maternity units in a capital in southern Brazil. It is an evaluation research, retrospective, quantitative, developed in three hospitals. The variables relating to the Bologna Score (presence of a companion, use of partograph, absence of stimulation to labor, delivery in non-supine position; skin-to-skin mother with newborn) were collected in 406 records, tabulated in spreadsheets and submitted to simple frequency analysis. Collection lasted from June to September 2014. The assigned scores range from 0 to 5, according to the performance or not of practical activities. The following scores were obtained: 0 (7%); 1 (44,1%); 2 (40,4%); 3 (12,1%), 4 (2,5%), e 5 (0,2%). In the usual risk maternities evaluated, the labor and birth care provided do not match the standards recommended by the World Health Organisation.

Risk personality traits of Internet addiction: a longitudinal study of Internet-addicted Chinese university students.

PubMed

Dong, Guangheng; Wang, Jiangyang; Yang, Xuelong; Zhou, Hui

2013-12-01

As the world's fastest growing "addiction", Internet addiction is still controversial. The present study aimed to examine the potential personality predictors of Internet addicts. Eight hundred and sixty-eight students were tested using the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire after they had just entered university. Two years later, 49 were found to be addicted to the Internet as defined by high Internet addiction test scores. Comparisons of means and logistic regression analysis were used to explore their relationship. Students addicted to the Internet showed higher Neuroticism/Stability scores, higher Psychoticism/Socialization scores, and lower Lie scores than their normal peers before their addiction. Regression results showed that Internet addiction was accounted by three independent variables: Neuroticism/Stability, Psychoticism/Socialization, and Lie. These results suggest that the risk personality traits of Internet addiction include neuroticism, psychoticism, and immaturity. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Prenatal High Risk Scoring: How Family Doctors Do It

PubMed Central

Shea, Philip

1978-01-01

Assessment of risk factors is an integral part of family medicine and of prenatal care. A strong positive relationship has been demonstrated between a high risk score and higher incidence of maternal or perinatal morbidity and mortality. The family physician, because of his previous knowledge of the patient, and his familiarity with a broad range of normals, is in a good position to use his clinical judgement in high risk scoring in pregnancy. We must also be cautious that high risk scoring does not become a self fulfilling prophecy. Risk scoring is simply risk scoring, not a plan of management and intervention. PMID:21301562

Assessment of medium-term cardiovascular disease risk after Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: a retrospective analysis

PubMed Central

Nomura, Shuhei; Gilmour, Stuart; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Lee, Kiwon; Kiyabu, Grace Y; Shibuya, Kenji

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the medium-term indirect impact of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks and to identify whether risk factors for CVD changed after the accident. Participants Residents aged 40 years and over participating in annual public health check-ups from 2009 to 2012, administered by Minamisoma city, located about 10 to 40 km from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Methods The sex-specific Framingham CVD risk score was considered as the outcome measure and was compared before (2009–2010) and after the accident (2011–2012). A multivariate regression analysis was employed to evaluate risk factors for CVD. Results Data from 563 individuals (60.2% women) aged 40 to 74 years who participated in the check-ups throughout the study period was analysed. After adjusting for covariates, no statistically significant change was identified in the CVD risk score postaccident in both sexes, which may suggest no obvious medium-term health impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on CVD risk. The risk factors for CVD and their magnitude and direction (positive/negative) did not change after the accident. Conclusions There was no obvious increase in CVD risks in Minamisoma city, which may indicate successful management of health risks associated with CVD in the study sample. PMID:29275343

Survival outcomes of radical prostatectomy and external beam radiotherapy in clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer: a population-based, propensity score matched study

PubMed Central

Gu, Xiaobin; Gao, Xianshu; Cui, Ming; Xie, Mu; Ma, Mingwei; Qin, Shangbin; Li, Xiaoying; Qi, Xin; Bai, Yun; Wang, Dian

2018-01-01

Objective This study was aimed to compare survival outcomes in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or radical prostatectomy (RP). Materials and methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify PCa patients with high-risk features who received RP alone or EBRT alone from 2004 to 2008. Propensity-score matching (PSM) was performed. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to compare cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors. Results A total of 24,293 patients were identified, 14,460 patients receiving RP and 9833 patients receiving EBRT. Through PSM, 3828 patients were identified in each group. The mean CSS was 128.6 and 126.7 months for RP and EBRT groups, respectively (P<0.001). The subgroup analyses showed that CSS of the RP group was better than that of the EBRT group for patients aged <65 years (P<0.001), White race (P<0.001), and married status (P<0.001). However, there was no significant difference in CSS for patients aged ≥65 years, Black race, other race, and unmarried status. Similar trends were observed for OS. Multivariate analysis showed that EBRT treatment modality, T3–T4 stage, Gleason score 8–10, and prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL were significant risk factors for both CSS and OS. Conclusion This study suggested that survival outcomes might be better with RP than EBRT in high-risk PCa patients aged <65 years; however, RP and EBRT provided equivalent survival outcomes in older patients, which argues for primary radiotherapy in this older cohort.

Systematic meta-analysis of childhood social withdrawal in schizophrenia, and comparison with data from at-risk children aged 9-14 years.

PubMed

Matheson, Sandra L; Vijayan, Hena; Dickson, Hannah; Shepherd, Alana M; Carr, Vaughan J; Laurens, Kristin R

2013-08-01

Social withdrawal is a robust childhood risk factor for later schizophrenia. The aims of this paper were to assess the evidence for childhood social withdrawal among adults with schizophrenia and, comparatively, in children aged 9-14 years who are putatively at-risk of developing schizophrenia. We conducted a meta-analysis, including cohort and case-control studies reporting social withdrawal measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) in adults with schizophrenia vs. controls. Further, an experimental study compared CBCL withdrawal scores from typically-developing children with scores from two groups of putatively at-risk children: (i) children displaying a triad of replicated antecedents for schizophrenia, and (ii) children with at least one first- or second-degree relative with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Six studies met inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis (N = 3828), which demonstrated a large effect of increased childhood social withdrawal in adults with schizophrenia (standardized mean difference [SMD] score = 1.035, 95% CI = 0.304-1.766, p = 0.006), with no indication of publication bias, but considerable heterogeneity (I(2) = 91%). Results from the experimental study also indicated a large effect of increased social withdrawal in children displaying the antecedent triad (SMD = 0.743, p = 0.001), and a weaker effect in children with a family history of schizophrenia (SMD = 0.442, p = 0.051). Childhood social withdrawal may constitute a vulnerability marker for schizophrenia in the presence of other antecedents and/or genetic risk factors for schizophrenia. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Risk Score Model for Evaluation and Management of Patients with Thyroid Nodules.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongwen; Meng, Fanrong; Hong, Lianqing; Chu, Lanfang

2018-06-12

The study is aimed to establish a simplified and practical tool for analyzing thyroid nodules. A novel risk score model was designed, risk factors including patient history, patient characteristics, physical examination, symptoms of compression, thyroid function, ultrasonography (US) of thyroid and cervical lymph nodes were evaluated and classified into high risk factors, intermediate risk factors, and low risk factors. A total of 243 thyroid nodules in 162 patients were assessed with risk score system and Thyroid Imaging-Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The diagnostic performance of risk score system and TI-RADS was compared. The accuracy in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules was 89.3% for risk score system, 74.9% for TI-RADS respectively. The specificity, accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV) of risk score system were significantly higher than the TI-RADS system (χ 2 =26.287, 17.151, 11.983; p <0.05), statistically significant differences were not observed in the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) between the risk score system and TI-RADS (χ 2 =1.276, 0.290; p>0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for risk score diagnosis system was 0.963, standard error 0.014, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.934-0.991, the AUC for TI-RADS diagnosis system was 0.912 with standard error 0.021, 95% CI=0.871-0.953, the AUC for risk score system was significantly different from that of TI-RADS (Z=2.02; p <0.05). Risk score model is a reliable, simplified and cost-effective diagnostic tool used in diagnosis of thyroid cancer. The higher the score is, the higher the risk of malignancy will be. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

BMI levels with MS Bone mineral density levels in adults with multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Zhongming; Qi, Yiying; Du, Shaohua; Chen, Guangnan; Yan, Weiqi

2015-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) and osteoporosis (OP) affect a substantial proportion of the population. Accumulating evidence suggests that MS patients are at high risk for OP. We performed a meta-analysis to identify risk factors for lowered bone mineral density (BMD) in MS patients. We searched for articles within the Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library databases, published up to March 2014, pertaining to associations between MS and BMD. A total of 11 studies was included in the meta-analysis. The analysis indicated that MS patients have reduced lumbar spine, femur neck, and hip BMD compared with healthy controls (lumbar spine, standardized mean difference (SMD) = -0.76, 95% CI: -1.07, -0.45; femur neck, SMD = -0.56, 95% CI: -0.84, -0.29; and hip, SMD = -0.62, 95% CI: -0.96, -0.29). Further subgroup analysis revealed that a disease duration of >7 years, total steroid dose during the disease of >15 g, and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of > 3, increased the risk of reduced BMD in the lumbar spine and femoral neck, but not in the hip. Meta-regression analysis did not explain the heterogeneity in the clinical characteristics or outcome definitions. Our meta-analysis suggests that MS patients have reduced overall BMD compared with healthy controls. Furthermore, disease duration (>7 years), total steroid dose (>15 g), and EDSS score (>3) are risk factors for reduced BMD in MS patients.

Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

2014-04-01

Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

Association between Epicondylitis and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew S; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Foster, James; Drury, David L; Garg, Arun

2017-05-30

The pathophysiology of lateral epicondylitis (LE) is unclear. Recent evidence suggests some common musculoskeletal disorders may have a basis in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Thus, we examined CVD risks as potential LE risks. Workers (n = 1824) were enrolled in two large prospective studies and underwent structured interviews and physical examinations at baseline. Analysis of pooled baseline data assessed the relationships separately between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score and three prevalence outcomes of: 1) lateral elbow pain, 2) positive resisted wrist or middle finger extension, and 3) a combination of both symptoms and at least one resisted maneuver. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were calculated. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and lateral elbow symptoms, resisted wrist or middle finger extension and LE after adjustment for confounders. The adjusted ORs for symptoms were as high as 3.81 (95% CI 2.11, 6.85), for positive examination with adjusted odds ratios as high as 2.85 (95% CI 1.59, 5.12) and for combined symptoms and physical examination 6.20 (95% CI 2.04, 18.82). Relationships trended higher with higher CVD risk scores. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism for LE.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a proposal of a prognostic scoring system.

PubMed

Iwatsuki, S; Dvorchik, I; Marsh, J W; Madariaga, J R; Carr, B; Fung, J J; Starzl, T E

2000-10-01

The current staging system of hepatocellular carcinoma established by the International Union Against Cancer and the American Joint Committee on Cancer does not necessarily predict the outcomes after hepatic resection or transplantation. Various clinical and pathologic risk factors for tumor recurrence were examined on 344 consecutive patients who received hepatic transplantation in the presence of nonfibrolamellar hepatocellular carcinoma to establish a reliable risk scoring system. Multivariate analysis identified three factors as independently significant poor prognosticators: 1) bilobarly distributed tumors, 2) size of the greatest tumor (2 to 5 cm and > 5 cm), and 3) vascular invasion (microscopic and macroscopic). Prognostic risk score (PRS) of each patient was calculated from the relative risks of multivariate analysis. The patients were grouped into five grades of tumor recurrence risk: grade 1: PRS = 0 to < 7.5; grade 2: PRS = 7.5 to < or = 11.0; grade 3: PRS > 11.0 to 15.0; grade 4: PRS > or = 15.0; and grade 5: positive node, metastasis, or margin. The proposed PRS system correlated extremely well with tumor-free survival after liver transplantation (100%, 61%, 40%, 5%, and 0%, from grades 1 to 5, respectively, at 5 years), but current pTNM staging did not. 1) Patients with grades 1 and 2 are effectively treated with liver transplantation, 2) patients with grades 4 and 5 are poor candidates for liver transplantation, and 3) patients with grade 1 do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Prediction of Mortality with A Body Shape Index in Young Asians: Comparison with Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference.

PubMed

Lee, Da-Young; Lee, Mi-Yeon; Sung, Ki-Chul

2018-06-01

This paper investigated the impact of A Body Shape Index (ABSI) on the risk of all-cause mortality compared with the impact of waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI). This paper reviewed data of 213,569 Korean adults who participated in health checkups between 2002 and 2012 at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital in Seoul, Korea. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed on the BMI, WC, and ABSI z score continuous variables as well as quintiles. During 1,168,668.7 person-years, 1,107 deaths occurred. As continuous variables, a significant positive relationship with the risk of all-cause death was found only in ABSI z scores after adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, presence of diabetes or hypertension, and history of cardiovascular diseases. In Cox analysis of quintiles, quintile 5 of the ABSI z score showed significantly increased hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality risk (HR [95% CI] was 1.32 [1.05-1.66]), whereas the risk for all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased in quintiles 3 through 5 of BMI and WC compared with their first quintiles after adjusting for several confounders. This study showed that the predictive value of ABSI for mortality risk was strong for a sample of young Asian participants and that its usefulness was better than BMI or WC. © 2018 The Obesity Society.

Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong

PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy ofmore » this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.« less

The Association between Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Parental Educational Level in Portuguese Children

PubMed Central

Duncan, Michael J.; Vale, Susana; Santos, Maria Paula; Ribeiro, José Carlos; Mota, Jorge

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine any differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in Portuguese children split by parental educational level. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted in 2011 on 359 Portuguese children (202 girls and 157 boys) aged 10 to 17 years (mean age ± SD = 13.9 ± 1.98 years). Height and body mass were assessed to determine body mass index (BMI). Parental education level (PEL) was used as a surrogate for socioeconomic status (SES). Capillary blood sampling was used to determine: Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglycerides (TG), Fasting Glucos (GLUC), High and Low Density Lipoprotein (HDL/LDL). These measurements were combined with measures of systolic blood pressure and cardiorespiratory fitness as z-scores. CVD risk was constructed by summing the z-scores. Analysis of covariance, controlling for BMI, indicated that CVD risk was significantly different across PEL groups (p = 0.01), with CVD risk score being significantly lower in low (p = 0.04) and middle (p = 0.008) PEL groups, compared to high PEL. Moreover, the covariate, BMI was also significant (p = 0.0001, β = 0.023), evidencing a significant positive association between BMI and CVD risk, with higher BMI associated with greater CVD risk. In Portuguese children, significantly greater CVD risk was found for children of high PEL, while higher BMI was associated with greater CVD risk. PMID:23330223

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores.

PubMed

Haile, Sarah R; Guerra, Beniamino; Soriano, Joan B; Puhan, Milo A

2017-12-21

Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them. Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined. We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small. We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.

Association of modified NUTRIC score with 28-day mortality in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Amartya; Henry, Jeyakumar; Ong, Venetia; Leong, Claudia Shu-Fen; Teh, Ai Ling; van Dam, Rob M; Kowitlawakul, Yanika

2017-08-01

For patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), nutritional risk assessment is often difficult. Traditional scoring systems cannot be used for patients who are sedated or unconscious since they are unable to provide information on their history of food intake and weight loss. We aim to validate the NUTRIC (NUTrition RIsk in Critically ill) score, an ICU-specific nutrition risk assessment tool in Asian patients. This was an observational study in the medical ICU of a university-affiliated tertiary hospital. We included all adult patients (≥18years) admitted between October 2013 and September 2014 who stayed for more than 24 hours in the ICU. Components of the modified NUTRIC (mNUTRIC) score, demographic details, body mass index (BMI), use of mechanical ventilation (MV), vasopressor drugs, and renal replacement therapy (RRT) were obtained from the ICU database. For patients on MV (maximum 12 days), we calculated the energy intake and nutritional adequacy (energy received ÷ energy recommended) from enteral or parenteral feeding data. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used with 28-day mortality as the outcome of interest. 401 patients (62% male, mean age 60.0 ± 16.3 years, mean BMI 23.9 ± 6.2 kg/m 2 ) were included. In the univariate analysis, BMI, mNUTRIC score, MV, vasopressor drug, and RRT were associated with 28-day mortality. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, mNUTRIC score (Odds ratio, OR 1.48, Confidence Interval, CI 1.25-1.74, p < 0.001), vasopressor drug (OR 2.31, CI 1.28-4.15, p = 0.005), and BMI (OR 0.92, CI 0.87-0.97, p = 0.002) were associated with 28-day mortality. Nutritional adequacy was assessed in a subgroup of 273 (68%) patients who received MV for at least 48 hours. Median (IQR) nutritional adequacy was 0.44 (0.15-0.70). In patients with high mNUTRIC score (5-9), higher nutritional adequacy was associated with a lower predicted 28-day mortality; this was not observed in patients with low mNUTRIC (0-4) score (effect modification, p interaction <0.001). In a mixed Asian ICU population, mNUTRIC score is independently associated with 28-day mortality. Increased nutritional adequacy may reduce the 28-day mortality in patients with a high mNUTRIC score. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Weight gain and 10-year cardiovascular risk with sustained tobacco abstinence in smokers with serious mental illness: a subgroup analysis of a randomized trial.

PubMed

Thorndike, Anne N; Achtyes, Eric D; Cather, Corinne; Pratt, Sarah; Pachas, Gladys N; Hoeppner, Susanne S; Evins, A Eden

2016-03-01

People with serious mental illness die earlier than those without mental illness, largely from cardiovascular disease due to high rates of smoking and obesity. The objective of this study was to determine whether the metabolic effects of postcessation weight gain among smokers with serious mental illness attenuated the cardiovascular benefit of tobacco abstinence. A subgroup analysis was conducted of 65 outpatient smokers with DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar disorder from 10 community mental health centers in 6 states who enrolled between March 2008-April 2012 and completed a trial of varenicline for tobacco abstinence. The intervention included a 12-week open-label phase with varenicline followed by a 40-week randomized, placebo-controlled phase in 87 participants who achieved 12-week abstinence. Main outcome measures were smoking status and change from baseline in weight and 10-year Framingham cardiovascular risk score at end of intervention (week 52). At week 52, 65 participants completed follow-up (33 abstinent; 32 relapsed). At baseline, the 2 groups did not differ in body mass index (mean = 31 kg/m(2)), blood pressure, serum glucose, or diagnoses of diabetes (31%) and hypertension (34%). Abstinent participants were older and had a higher mean baseline Framingham risk score (14.2% vs 10.3%, P = .002). At week 52, abstinent participants gained more weight than relapsed participants (4.8 vs 1.2 kg, P = .048) and, as a result of quitting smoking, had a greater reduction in Framingham risk score (-7.6% vs 0.0%, P < .001). There was no effect of study drug assignment on weight or Framingham risk score. Sustained tobacco abstinence reduced 10-year cardiovascular risk in outpatients with serious mental illness despite significant postcessation weight gain and high prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00621777. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Polygenic risk accelerates the developmental progression to heavy, persistent smoking and nicotine dependence: Evidence from a 4-Decade Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Moffitt, Terrie E; Baker, Timothy B; Biddle, Andrea K; Evans, James P; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate; Meier, Madeline; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE To test how genomic loci identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) influence the developmental progression of smoking behavior. DESIGN A 38-year prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth-cohort. SETTING The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS N=1037 male and female study members. MAIN EXPOSURES We assessed genetic risk with a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS). The GRS was composed of single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in three meta-analyses of GWAS of smoking quantity phenotypes. OUTCOME MEASURES Smoking initiation, conversion to daily smoking, progression to heavy smoking, nicotine dependence (Fagerstrom Test of Nicotine Dependence), and cessation difficulties were evaluated at eight assessments spanning ages 11-38 years. RESULTS Genetic risk score was unrelated to smoking initiation. However, individuals at higher genetic risk were more likely to convert to daily smoking as teenagers, progressed more rapidly from smoking initiation to heavy smoking, persisted longer in smoking heavily, developed nicotine dependence more frequently, were more reliant on smoking to cope with stress, and were more likely to fail in their cessation attempts. Further analysis revealed that two adolescent developmental phenotypes—early conversion to daily smoking and rapid progression to heavy smoking--mediated associations between the genetic risk score and mature phenotypes of persistent heavy smoking, nicotine dependence, and cessation failure. The genetic risk score predicted smoking risk over and above family history. CONCLUSIONS Initiatives that disrupt the developmental progression of smoking behavior among adolescents may mitigate genetic risks for developing adult smoking problems. Future genetic research may maximize discovery potential by focusing on smoking behavior soon after smoking initiation and by studying young smokers. PMID:23536134

Validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome in Japan: results from a prospective multicenter registry.

PubMed

Kawabata, Hiroshi; Tohyama, Kaoru; Matsuda, Akira; Araseki, Kayano; Hata, Tomoko; Suzuki, Takahiro; Kayano, Hidekazu; Shimbo, Kei; Zaike, Yuji; Usuki, Kensuke; Chiba, Shigeru; Ishikawa, Takayuki; Arima, Nobuyoshi; Nogawa, Masaharu; Ohta, Akiko; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Mitani, Kinuko; Ozawa, Keiya; Arai, Shunya; Kurokawa, Mineo; Takaori-Kondo, Akifumi

2017-09-01

The Japanese National Research Group on Idiopathic Bone Marrow Failure Syndromes has been conducting prospective registration, central review, and follow-up study for patients with aplastic anemia and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) since 2006. Using this database, we retrospectively analyzed the prognosis of patients with MDS. As of May 2016, 351 cases were registered in this database, 186 of which were eligible for the present study. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that overall survival (OS) curves of the five risk categories stipulated by the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) were reasonably separated. 2-year OS rates for the very low-, low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk categories were 95, 89, 79, 35, and 12%, respectively. In the same categories, incidence of leukemic transformation at 2 years was 0, 10, 8, 56, and 40%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, low platelet counts, increased blast percentage (>2%), and high-risk karyotype abnormalities were independent risk factors for poor OS. Based on these data, we classified Japanese MDS patients who were classified as intermediate-risk in IPSS-R, into the lower risk MDS category, highlighting the need for careful assessment of treatments within low- and high-risk treatment protocols.

A NOVEL SCORING SYSTEM: PREDICTING SEPTIC SHOCK AT DIAGNOSIS EASILY IN ACUTE COMPLICATED PYELONEPHRITIS PATIENTS.

PubMed

Kubota, Masashi; Kanno, Toru; Nishiyama, Ryuichi; Okada, Takashi; Higashi, Yoshihito; Yamada, Hitoshi

2016-01-01

(Objectives) Because acute complicated pyelonephritis can easily cause sepsis and concomitant shock status, it is a potentially lethal disease. However, the predictors for the severity of pyelonephritis is not well analyzed. In this study, we aimed at clarifying the clinical characteristic risk factors associated with septic shock in patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis. (Materials and methods) From May 2009 to March 2014, 267 patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis were treated at our institution. We investigated the characteristics of the patients associated with septic shock, and assessed risk factors in these patients. By using these risk factors, we established a novel scoring system to predict septic shock. (Results) 267 patients included 145 patients with ureteral calculi and 75 patients with stent-related pyelonephritis. Septic shock occurred in 35 patients (13%), and the mortality rate was 0.75%. Multivariate analysis revealed that (P): Performance Status ≥3 (p=0.0014), (U): Presence of Ureteral calculi (p=0.043), (S): Sex of female (p=0.023), and (H): the presence of Hydronephrosis (p=0.039) were independent risk factors for septic shock. P.U.S.H. scoring system (range 0-4), which consists of these 4 factors, were positively correlated with the rate of septic shock (score 0: 0%, 1: 5.3%, 2: 3.4%, 3: 25.0%, 4: 42.3%). Importantly, patients with 3-4 P.U.S.H. scores were statistically more likely to become septic shock than those with 0-2 score (p=0.00014). (Conclusions) These results suggest that P.U.S.H. scoring system using 4 clinical factors is useful to predict the status of septic shock in patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis.

A relative difference in systolic blood pressure between arms by synchronal measurement and conventional cardiovascular risk factors are associated with the severity of coronary atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Tomohiko; Miura, Shin-Ichiro; Suematsu, Yasunori; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Iwata, Atsushi; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

2016-06-01

It is not known the relationships between a difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP) between arms by synchronal measurement and the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD), and between a difference in BP between arms and the severity of coronary atherosclerosis. We enrolled 425 consecutive patients (M/F = 286/139, 67 ± 13 year) who were admitted to our University Hospital and in whom we could measure the absolute (|rt. BP - lt. BP|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP and DBP using a nico PS-501(®) (Parama-Tech). We divided all patients into those who did and did not have CAD. The relative differences in SBP between arms in patients with CAD were significantly lower than those in patients without CAD. However, the relative difference in SBP between arms was not a predictor of the presence of CAD. We also divided 267 patients who underwent coronary angiography into tertiles according to the Gensini score (low, middle, and high score groups). Interestingly, the middle + high score groups showed significantly lower relative differences in SBP between arms than the low score group. The mean Korotkoff sound graph in the middle + high Gensini score group was significantly higher than that in the low Gensini score group. Among conventional cardiovascular risk factors and nico parameters, the relative difference in SBP between arms in addition to the risk factors (age, gender, body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus) was associated with the score by a logistic regression analysis. In conclusion, the relative difference in SBP between arms as well as conventional risk factors may be associated with the severity of coronary arteriosclerosis.

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

PubMed Central

Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

2004-01-01

Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691